OCTOBER 31/TODAY WAS LAST DAY FOR OPTIONS EXPIRY AND AS ALWAYS THE CROOKS RAID GOLD AND SILVER: GOLD DOWN $10.35 TO $1213/45 SILVER IS DOWN 18 CENTS TO $14.28/HUGE RISE IN LIBOR AS BANKS ARE LOATHE TO LEND TO EACH OTHER/ALSO FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS COSTS ARE NOW PROHIBITIVE/EXPECT A COUP IN SAUDI ARABIA AS KING SALMAN’S BROTHER ARRIVES IN KSA AFTER A SELF IMPOSED EXILE/VERY OMINOUS AS GE IS LOCKED OUT OF THE COMMERCIAL PAPER MARKET: IT’S BREAD AND BUTTER/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1213.45 DOWN  $10.35 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.28 DOWN 18 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1215.10

 

silver: $14.26

 

 

 

 

Today was the last day for options expiry for London based/LBMA gold and silver options. The crooks always raid during this week in order to make options on precious metals underwritten by the banks worthless.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT: 116 NOTICE(S) FOR 11600 OZ

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  116  for 11,600 OZ  (0.3608 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

459 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

2,295,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 459 for 2,295,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6355: down  $15

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6369  up 40 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY 580 CONTRACTS FROM 209,556 DOWN TO  208,976 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 4 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  2603 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2603 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2603 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2603 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.50 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR 2,295,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 

44.975 CONTRACTS (FOR 23 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 44.975 CONTRACTS) OR 224.875 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1955 CONTRACTS OR 9.777 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  224.875MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 32.11% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,429.729    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 580 DESPITE THE 4 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2603 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 2023 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2603 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 580  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 4 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.47 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND IN SEPTEMBER AN FINAL MONSTROUS 39.505 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.045 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 149% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 459 NOTICE(S) FOR 2,295,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./AND NOW OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6695 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 474,941 WITH THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A DROP IN PRICE OF $2.00).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 5311 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5311 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 474,941. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A TINY OI LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1384 CONTRACTS:  6695 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5311 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS: 1384 CONTRACTS OR 138,400 OZ =4.30TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $2.00.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 8297 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 174,873 CONTRACTS OR 17,487,300 OZ OR 543.92 TONNES (23 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7603 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 760,300 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 23 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 543.92 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 543.92/2550 x 100% TONNES =  20.65% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,211.51*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 6695 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($2.00) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5311 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5311 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN SMALL LOSS OF 1384 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5569 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 6695 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the LOSS in total oi equates to 04.30 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $2.00 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.??

 

 

we had: 116 notice(s) filed upon for 11,600 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $11/35 TODAY:

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TODAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   754.94 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 754/94 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 18  CENTS TODAY

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY 580 CONTRACTS from 209,556 UP TO 208,976  AND MOVING A LITTLE further from THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

2603 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2603 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 485 CONTRACTS TO THE 2603 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG  NET GAIN OF 2023 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10.155 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW OVER 2 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 4 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 2603 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.73 POINTS OR 1.35% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 394.16 POINTS OR 1.60% //The Nikkei closed UP 463.17 OR 1.60%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.43%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9722 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 66.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN AT 6.9722 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9757: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

i)A terrific commentary from James Rickard’s as he explains the world’s dollar shortage. Even though the Fed has printed 4.4 trillion dollars the world has borrowed 70 trillion dollars.  In essence China is short dollars because it cannot pay back all the dollars it has borrowed

( zerohedge)

ii)China vows more stimulus as their economy is on the verge of contraction.  The problem here is that the Chinese will fund “bridges going nowhere”  This is heading for a complete collapse.

( zerohedge)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)John Rubino explains the mess that Germany is in right now and he outlines 4 possible outcomes for the Euro

a must read…

( John Rubino DollarCollapse.com)

ii)Brexit Sec Raab promises a Brexit deal by Nov 21.  Let’s see how long this lasts
(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)SAUDI ARABIA/
The Turkish prosecutor now indicate that Khashoggi was strangled immediately upon entering the consulate and not due to a botched interview,  They should know..they have the audio tape of the murder scene.
(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)IRAN

An excellent commentary showing how Iran’s economy is spiraling southbound,  The loss of oil revenue combining with the higher dollar and scarcity of that dollar is creating nightmares for Iran
( zerohedge)
iii)SAUDI ARABIA
The younger brother of King Salman has returned to Saudi Arabia after a self imposed exile to challenge the leader of the country from MbS.  Expect a coup shortly
(courtesy zerohedge)
iv)RUSSIA/USA
Now this is getting serious:  Russia is assessing a military base in Cuba after the USA pulls out of the INF
(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Very sad…Zimbabwe which produced around 100 tonnes per year (as Rhodesia) will suspend gold operations as they have insufficient funds to cover production cost. Last year they mined 7 tonnes
( Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)Ronan Manly reports that the initiative to give transparency in the London gold market is a phony.  There is no transparency and he explains why( Ronan Manly/GATA)

iii)Divers are going after gold coins lost during a 1840 shipwreck off the South Carolina coast.

These coins are USA made and thus extremely rare due to the fact that they are all pre 1840

( GATA/Price)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

Junk bond yields rising setting off danger signals throughout the globe

( zerohedge)

ii)Market data

a)This us not good:  USA employment costs soar at fastest pace in 10 years due to increased wages.

( zero hedge)

b)For the third month in a row, the Chicago PMI plunges.  The Chicago PMI is a national manufacturing index and it is a soft data and yet it is plunging..

( zerohedge)

c) Interesting:  the Fed has eased liquidity requirements for smaller regional banks.  However, Lael Brainard warns against this move as she states there is an increased risk of taxpayer bailouts of the banks.

(zerohedge)

d)The Treasury announces its record debt sale for the upcoming refunding auction. Although this was forecasted quite accurately by the Treasury, it did not help the 10 yr treasury note:  the yield rose to 3.16% on the news.

(courtesy zerohedge)

e)This is very ominous as GE is now locked out of the commercial paper market after a Moody’s downgrade

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

The USA Geological Survey has increased the Yellowstone supervolcano threat to high.
this is dangerous..
( Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

This is unbelievable.  Trump visits Pittsburgh visiting the families of the victims of this horrific hate crime and yet thousands protest.

( zerohedge)

ii)Kavanaugh declines the 600,000 GofundMe account while Ford walks away with over 1 million dollars and book offers.  If her lawyers stated that they were working :pro bono…why create the account in the first place

( zero hedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 6695 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 474,941 WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.00 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5311 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  5311 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5311 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 1387 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5311 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE 6695 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1384 contracts OR 138,400 OZ OR 4.30 TONNES.

Result: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE  FALL IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF ($2.00).THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1384 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 126 notices standing for initial delivery and thus by definition the amount of gold standing is as follows:

126 notices x  100 oz per contract =   12600 oz. (0.3919tonnes)

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 7712 contracts UP to 359,008 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 116 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 11,600 OZ.

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 580 CONTRACTS FROM 209,556 DOWN TO 208,976 (AND FURTHER FR0M THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GOOD  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 2603 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER:2603 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2603.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 2023 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED  580 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2700 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   2023 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we have 1355 notices initially standing and thus by definition we have: 1355 notices  x 5000 oz per contract =   6,775,000 oz stand for delivery which is huge for the worst delivery month for silver in the year.

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we lost 1969 contracts up to 160,083

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 459 notice(s) filed for 2,295,000 OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 244.432 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  232,853  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

OCT 31-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 20,178.150  oz
JPM
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

NIL

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
116 notice(s)
 11600 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
10 contracts
(1000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
116 notices
11600 OZ
0.3608 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of JPM:  20,178.150 oz
total customer withdrawals:  20,178.150 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: NIL oz
we had 0  adjustment..

FOR THE OCTOBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 116 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 68 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (126) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (126 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (116 x 100 oz per contract) equals 12600 OZ OR 0.3919 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (126 x 100 oz)  + {116)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (116x 100 oz )which equals 12,600 oz standing OR 0.3919 TONNES in this active delivery month of OCTOBER.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.2819 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.3919 TONNES STANDING FOR OCTOBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  137,664.218 oz or   4.2819 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,066.489.712 oz 250.90 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 105 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

OCT 31 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 603,610.264 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
600,347.750
oz
BRINKS
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,272,980.200 oz
JPMORGAN
No of oz served today (contracts)
459
CONTRACT(S)
2,295,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
856 contracts
(4,280,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 504 contracts

(2,520,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

lot of activity in the silver vaults today.

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) into Brinks:  600,347.750

 

total dealer deposits: 600,347.750 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 1,272,980.200 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.78% of all official comex silver. (150.3 million/290.258 million)

ii)Into everybody else;  nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,272,980.200  oz

we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;

 

i) Out of CNT:  603,610.262  oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 603,610.262 oz

 

we had 1 adjustments

i) Out of CNT a whooper:

1,597,481.180 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  80.210 million

total dealer + customer silver:  288.988  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 459 contract(s) FOR 2,295,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 459 x 5,000 oz = 2,295,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (1315) and the number of notices served upon today (459 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 459(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 1359) -number of notices served upon today (459)x 5000 oz equals 6,575,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 77,210 CONTRACTS  …

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 80,303 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 80,303 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 401 million OZ  OR 57.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.93% (OCT 30/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.64% to NAV (OCT 30/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.93%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.39/TRADING 11.80/DISCOUNT 4.80

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $3.75, WE HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/731.64 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05, ANOTHER HUGE REMOVAL OF 6.18 TONNES

OCT 2 WITH GOLD UP $15.80 TODAY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.35 TONNES

OCT 1…GOLD ADDS 3.94 TONNES TO THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.17 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $8.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

OCT 31.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 754.94 tonnes

*IN LAST 487 TRADING DAYS: 178.27 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 387 TRADING DAYS: A NET 21.74 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN  18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.316 MILLION OZ

OCT 3 WITH SILVER FLAT, A GOOD INCREASE OF 1.879 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY

OCT 2 A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 332.912

OCT 1.NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION  OZ.

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS, STRANGELY WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF .517 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.457 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.563 MILLION OZ/

 

 

OCT 31/2018:

 

Inventory 328.496 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY./AND GOFOR RATES

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.28/ and libor 6 month duration 2.80

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ .52

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.59%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.08

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.49

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG

Gold Analysts At LBMA See 25% Return To $1,532/oz In 12 months

(by Reuters from BOSTON, LBMA)
The price of gold is expected to rise to $1,532 an ounce by October next year, delegates to the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) annual gathering predicted on Tuesday.


Gold in USD (10 Years)

A poll of delegates at the LBMA conference in Boston also predicted higher prices in a year’s time for silver, platinum and palladium.

Spot gold has had a difficult few months, falling from a high of $1,366.07 in January to as low as $1,159.96 in August as the dollar strengthened and the U.S. Federal Reserve pushed ahead with interest rate rises.

But it has since clawed back to around $1,225 an ounce as volatility on global stock markets revived interest in bullion as a safe place to store assets.

The poll also showed that delegates expect silver prices to rise to $15 an ounce by the end of October 2019 from around $14.50 on Tuesday.

Platinum prices were forecast to increase to $1,010 an ounce over the next year from around $835 on Tuesday and palladium was expected to rise to $1,195 from around $1,075.

Analysts and traders polled by Reuters this month said they expected gold prices to average $1,300 an ounce in 2019, silver to average $16.40, platinum to average $875 and palladium to average $1,025.

Full article from Reuters

 

News and Commentary

Gold Analysts See Prices Rising To $1,532/oz Over 12 months (Reuters.com)

Gold finishes with a loss as U.S. equities market climbs, dollar strengthens (MarketWatch.com)

Gold falls to 1-1/2 week lows, 100-DMA support around $1220 level (FXStreet.com)

Goldman Says the Return of Fear Is a Good Thing for Gold (Bloomberg.com)

‘Extremely rare’ gold coins searched for by divers in 1840 shipwreck off South Carolina (Gata.org)

Rickards: Debt Bomb Ready to Explode (DailyReckoning.com)

America’s Debt: A Recipe for Disaster (BonnerAndPartners.com)

After Germany’s Merkel Comes Chaos (DollarCollapse.com)

UK Begins Confiscating Wealth Without Criminal Charges (ZeroHedge.com)

Cash is king again, but is that also a sign that another recession is looming? (MarketWatch.com)

 

Listen on iTunes, Blubrry  & SoundCloud  or watch on YouTube above

 

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

30 Oct: USD 1,220.00, GBP 956.36 & EUR 1,074.33 per ounce
29 Oct: USD 1,230.75, GBP 958.88 & EUR 1,078.38 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 1,236.05, GBP 964.98 & EUR 1,087.23 per ounce
25 Oct: USD 1,232.15, GBP 954.67 & EUR 1,079.36 per ounce
24 Oct: USD 1,231.65, GBP 952.80 & EUR 1,078.68 per ounce
23 Oct: USD 1,235.60, GBP 950.67 & EUR 1,076.45 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

30 Oct: USD 14.43, GBP 11.32 & EUR 12.71 per ounce
29 Oct: USD 14.65, GBP 11.42 & EUR 12.86 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 14.69, GBP 11.48 & EUR 12.94 per ounce
25 Oct: USD 14.74, GBP 11.43 & EUR 12.92 per ounce
24 Oct: USD 14.75, GBP 11.42 & EUR 12.92 per ounce
23 Oct: USD 14.71, GBP 11.33 & EUR 12.83 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Gold Improves Investment, Pension and Central Bank Portfolio’s Risk-Adjusted Returns
– Gold Gains Nearly 1% On Week As Global Stock Markets Fall Sharply
– Dublin Housing Boom Set To Bust?
– Palladium Surges To All Time Record High On Russian Supply Concerns
– Happy Birthday GoldCore
– “IMF Warning Highlights Gold’s Importance As A Diversification and Happy Birthday GoldCore”
– End Of The Financial World?
– Gold Reserves Surge 1,000% In Hungary As It Joins Poland, Russia, China and Other Central Banks Buying Gold
– How Do You Sell Your Digital Gold When the Internet Goes Down?
– IMF Issues Dire Warning – ‘Great Depression’ Ahead?

DAG Video Still Play V2

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

 
ii) GATA stories
Very sad…Zimbabwe which produced around 100 tonnes per year (as Rhodesia) will suspend gold operations as they have insufficient funds to cover production cost. Last year they mined 7 tonnes
(courtesy Bloomberg.GATA)

Resource-rich, brains-poor Zimbabwe just can’t seem to smarten up

 Section: 

Zimbabwe Gold Producers Warn Currency Shortage Threatens Output

By Godfrey Marawanyika
Bloomberg News
Monday, October 29, 2018

Zimbabwean gold producers may suspend operations because a foreign-exchange shortage has left them with insufficient funds to cover production costs, the main industry lobby group said.

Curbing output would deprive the country of a key source of export earnings as Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube Ncube tries to stabilize an economy wrecked by the misrule of former leader Robert Mugabe

Zimbabwe’s mining industry is facing “severe viability challenges” because of the shortage of hard currency, the Gold Producers Committee, an affiliate of the Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe, said in a report to be submitted to the central bank and seen by Bloomberg. Producers are only allowed to retain 30 percent of the proceeds of gold sales, which isn’t adequate to cover the cost of mining the metal, it said.er of Mines of Zimbabwe, said in a report to be submitted to the central bank and seen by Bloomberg. Producers are only allowed to retain 30 percent of the proceeds of gold sales, which isn’t adequate to cover the cost of mining the metal, it said….

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/zimbabwe-gold-produce…

END

Ronan Manly reports that the initiative to give transparency in the London gold market is a phony.  There is no transparency and he explains why

(courtesy Ronan Manly/GATA)

Ronan Manly: LBMA initiative will prevent transparency in London gold market

 Section: 

12:55p ET Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star market analyst Ronan Manly, long a close observer of the London Bullion Market Association, writes today that the association’s pledge Monday —

http://gata.org/node/18577

— to increase transparency in the London gold market is phony because the data to be published will consist mainly of a five-day average of trades and will exclude trades by parties that are not LBMA members.

Manly writes: “There is nothing transparent about this initiative. A rolled-up aggregate number of trading volumes in any market is by definition opaque and not very useful. The LBMA reporting will provide no granularity of trades by trade type, transaction type, client profile (ETF trades, central bank trades, miner trades, and refiner trades), no breakdown of physical gold trades vs. paper gold trades, and no information on the secretive central bank gold trades, gold loans, and gold swaps.

“Given that the London precious metals market trade data is now being collected in an LBMA database, all of the above granular trade data could be published. That the LBMA will not publish any of this data speaks volumes about its true intention, which is to continually stifle the availability of any real data about the London gold and silver markets.”

Manly’s commentary is headlined “LBMA’s New Trade Volume Data Will Do Nothing for the Transparency of the London Gold Market” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/editorialarchive

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Divers are going after gold coins lost during a 1840 shipwreck off the South Carolina coast.

These coins are USA made and thus extremely rare due to the fact that they are all pre 1840

(courtesy GATA/Price)

Divers searching for ‘extremely rare’ gold coins in 1840 shipwreck off South Carolina

 Section: 

By Mark Price
Charlotte Observer, Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday, October 28, 2018

Theres a mysterious spot about 20 miles off South Carolina where centuries-old gold coins have been found strewn across the ocean floor for decades.

It’s believed to be the final resting place of the SS North Carolina, a steamship that historians say sank in 1840 under bizarre circumstances.

In November — 178 years after the ship went down — an expedition is being launched to “reconfirm with absolute proof” the wreck’s identity and unravel the mystery of why the North Carolina seemingly sank itself by heading straight into the path of another ship.

But make no mistake: It’s the stories of gold coins the are driving the expedition. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article220437805.html

* * *


iii) Other Physical stories

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Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9722/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9757   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 34.73 POINTS OR 1.35%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 394.16 POINTS OR 1.60%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 463.17 POINTS OR 2.16%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 97.00/Euro RISES TO 1.13490

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.14/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.92/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 66.42 and Brent: 76.35

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE:  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.38%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.43% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.54%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.24

3k Gold at $1218.50 silver at:14.34   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 31/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.78

3m oil into the 66 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.07DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0051 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1407 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.38%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.14% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.38%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4881

Global Stocks Surge On Last Day Of Dismal,

Turbulent October

The nightmare on Wall Street may finally be over with markets getting a treat this Halloween…  but will the trick emerge during the last hour of selling trading?

It is a sea of green as stocks hope to end a turbulent month – which saw the biggest losses for global equity markets since 2012 – in an upbeat mood, with European stocks sharply higher following a rebound in Asia as US equity futures extended on their Thursday gains which saw the Dow soar by more than 400 points, while the dollar remained near one year highs as Treasury yields posted another day of modest increases.

A confluence of factors ranging from China-U.S. trade tensions to worries about global economic growth, corporate profits and higher U.S. interest rates have spurred volatility in financial markets in the past few weeks. But shares in Europe were expected to follow Asia’s lead higher on the last day of the month, while U.S. S&P mini-futures edged up 0.3 percent.

Every sector in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index rose, with miners and energy companies leading the way. France’s CAC 40 (+1.9%) outperformed peers with the index pushed higher by gains in heavyweights L’Oreal (+5.4%) and Sanofi (+5.0%) post-earnings. Energy names lead the gains as the complex retraced yesterday’s losses, while utility names underperformed. Tech stocks thanks to Dialog Semiconductor (+10.0%) which rose to the top of the Stoxx 600 amid optimistic earnings, while Nokian Tyres (-14.7%) plumbed the depths after cutting guidance due to currency impacts.

Earlier in Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose 1%, with Japanese stocks the stand-out performers thanks to a 2.2% advance in the Nikkei, reassured by the Bank of Japan’s signal that it will keep its ultra-easy policy for some time to come. Even so, Asia was on track to fall around 11% this month, which would be its worst monthly performance since September 2011, dropping to its lowest level since February 2017 this week.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1 percent on Wednesday and the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 1.4% as weaker-than-expected factory activity data reinforced views that Beijing will roll out more support measures for the economy.

In the latest economic disappointment out of Beijing, the latest official NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October, the lowest level since July 2016 as almost all sub-indexes showed weaker growth momentum. The non-manufacturing PMI missed expectations as well, printing at 53.9, below the 54.9 in September, due to the weaker services PMI.

In Beijing’s ongoing attempt to stabilize the yuan, China’s overnight repo rate surged by 84bps – the most in more than four years – to 2.39%, as authorities take aggressive steps to combat bets against the yuan, which held near the weakest level in a decade against the greenback.

Even so, hopes of boosting the Yuan have proven futile so far, with the USDCNH rising to the highest since January 2017, just shy of 6.800 and knocking on the door of the critical 7.00 level, with today’s move largely a function of renewed dollar strength. The Chinese currency was on track for a loss of 1.4% in October, its seventh straight monthly loss — the longest such losing streak on record

Australian stocks ended 0.4 percent higher, South Korea’s KOSPI added 0.7 percent.

Today’s gains will be a welcome respite in a month that has seen a near historic selloff: the broader MSCI All Country World index was down 8.6% this month, its biggest monthly drop since 2012, losing $4 trillion in market value.

The narrower MSCI World Index was down 8.43% and has wiped out $4.5 trillion in October. The month-end gains followed a sharp bounce for Wall Street’s main indexes, which jumped more than 1% on Tuesday, helped by strong gains for chip and transport stocks as investors took advantage of cheaper prices following the steep recent pullback for equities.

Equity bulls will be hoping this rebound can last following a series of bounces in the past few weeks that quickly gave way to declines as late day algo selling put a dent on carbon-based BTFDing.

Corporate results will be key to sustaining the share gains: attention will next turn to earnings from Apple on Thursday. But trade risks continue to simmer in the background, with the U.S. jobs report is due Friday and US midterm elections are creeping closer, all of which have the potential to further roil markets.

“The recent slide in equities had gone to such an extent that it was bound to invite buyers, such as in the Japanese stock market,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management in Tokyo. Ichikawa said the U.S.-China trade row will likely remain a factor of concern beyond the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 6.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index headed for its best month in two years amid supportive month-end flows that offset profit taking by short-term investors. Price action in the euro was quiet while the pound rebounded, tracking trading in the options market. The yen was steady as the Bank of Japan left its monetary stimulus unchanged and kept its 10-year bond yield target at about zero percent as it updated price forecasts that confirm it won’t meet its inflation target for years to come. Australia’s dollar declined following a weaker-than-expected inflation reading and the abovementioned miss in China’s PMIs. The Indian rupee fell as much as 0.6% on reports that the central bank governor may consider resigning amid growing tensions with the government.

In rates, the 10Y TSY yield climbed 2bps to 3.14%, the highest in more than a week. Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 0.39%. Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 3 bps to 1.434%, the largest gain in more than a week. The spread of Italy’s 10-year bonds over Germany’s declined 9 bps to 3.0205%.

Oil prices recovered slightly after dropping to multi-month lows the previous day on signs of rising supply and concern that global demand for fuel will fall victim to the U.S.-China trade war. WTI futures were up 0.38% at $66.43 per barrel after dropping to $65.33 on Tuesday, the lowest since mid-August. Brent crude gained 0.62% to $76.38 after a decline of 1.8% on Tuesday. Gold declined and oil recovered from a two-month low.

Expected data include mortgage applications and Chicago Business Barometer. Air Canada, ADP, General Motors, Kellogg, Sprint, and AIG are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 2,701.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.4% to 360.66
  • MXAP up 1.6% to 148.97
  • MXAPJ up 1.4% to 469.62
  • Nikkei up 2.2% to 21,920.46
  • Topix up 2.2% to 1,646.12
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.6% to 24,979.69
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 2,602.78
  • Sensex up 1% to 34,231.36
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,830.31
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,029.69
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.6 bps to 0.395%
  • Euro up 0.09% to $1.1355
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 13.6 bps to 3.103%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.567%
  • Brent futures up 1.1% to $76.75/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,216.90
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 96.91

Top Overnight News

  • BBDXY rose for the third day to a fresh 2018 high even as the greenback traded mixed against Group-of-10 peers; Treasury yields crept steadily higher and the curve steepened
  • An official gauge of activity in China’s manufacturing sector worsened in October as the effects of an ongoing trade war with the U.S. hit home. The non-manufacturing PMI also worsened. China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 this month, lower than projected in a Bloomberg survey of forecasters. A gauge of new orders for export fell to the lowest reading since early 2016
  • Optimism in Britain’s economy slumped in October to the lowest level this year, with confidence falling in almost all parts of the country, Lloyds Bank said in a survey published on Wednesday
  • Italy’s populists are insisting their plans to ramp up government spending will shield the nation from recession, brushing off warnings that their confrontational approach may already be hurting the economy
  • Australia’s annual core inflation was weaker than forecast in the three months through September, suggesting the central bank’s prolonged interest-rate pause has further to run
  • The Aussie dollar lead G-10 declines, weighed down by slowing inflation and deteriorating Chinese PMI data, though an options expiry helped limit the drop
  • The Bank of Japan left its monetary stimulus unchanged as it updated price forecasts that confirm it won’t meet its inflation target for years to come
  • Official figures released over the past few weeks suggest money is increasingly leaving China’s borders
  • The euro held losses after inflation data matched estimates while the pound edged higher once London entered the market; Italian bonds extended bull steepening after a report that the government may see a deficit nearer to 2% than the 2.4% in the current budget draft for 2019
  • The yen held losses after the BOJ left its monetary policy unchanged, and forecasts inflation to remain below its 2% target through until at least early 2021
  • The rupee pared losses as India’s government sought to defuse growing tensions with its central bank, saying it respects the institution’s autonomy

Asian equity markets traded positive as the region sustained the momentum from Wall St where all majors finished with
firms gains and in which both S&P 500 and DJIA moved back into profit for the year. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+2.2%)
were higher from the open with financials the early outperformer in Australia after ANZ Bank earnings and with CBA to offload its
funds unit for over AUD 4.1bln, while Japanese stocks were underpinned by a weaker currency and with focus on a slew of
earnings releases. Hang Seng (+1.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.4%) conformed to the overall risk appetite as investors digested
earnings including big 4 lenders ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China, but with early indecision seen following uninspiring Chinese
PMI data in which both Official Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI fell short of estimates. Finally, 10yr JGBs were
lower with demand subdued by the strong performance in Japanese stocks and following an unsurprising BoJ policy
announcement in which the central bank maintained all policy settings.
PBoC skipped open market operations for a net daily drain of CNY 150bln, while it announced to sell CNY 10bln in 3-month and
CNY 10bln in 1yr CNY-denominated bills in Hong Kong on November 7th.

Top Asian News

  • BOJ Cuts Frequency, Tweaks Ranges for Short Bonds for November
  • MUFG Buys Commonwealth Bank Asset Arm for $2.9 Billion
  • Incredible Shrinking Australian Banks Shed $13 Billion of Assets
  • HNA Is Said to Try Offloading Airbus Planes to Leasing Firms

European equities are higher across the board (Eurostoxx 50 +1.3%) as the region took impetus from the gains experienced in Asia and on Wall Street. France’s CAC 40 (+1.9%) outperforms its peers with the index fuelled by gains in heavyweights L’Oreal (+5.4%) and Sanofi (+5.0%) post-earnings. In terms of sectors, energy names lead the gains as the complex retraces yesterday’s losses, while utility names underperform. Elsewhere, Dialog Semiconductor (+10.0%) rose to the top of the Stoxx 600 amid optimistic earnings, while Nokian Tyres (-14.7%) plumbed the depths after cutting guidance due to currency impacts.

Top European News

  • Telefonica Signals End to Decade of Weakness With Soccer Push
  • Sanofi Lifts Forecast as Vaccines, Eczema Drug Provide Fuel
  • Spanish Economy Proves Euro-Area Brightspot as Recovery Holds
  • Casino Short Sellers Ask Board to Block Interim Dividend Payment
  • L’Oreal Jumps as Luxury Cosmetics Get Another Boost From China

In FX, after breaching 97.00 to the upside overnight to hit its highest level since June 2017, the DXY initially paused for breath to sit on a 96.00 handle before extending gains back above 97.00 thereafter. USD will likely garner a bulk of the focus in the FX space today with month-end flows (as according to Barclays, Citi, Nordea and Credit Ag) said to be positive for the greenback. Furthermore, Nordea highlight that today is SOMA redemption day for the USD which will have a net USD -22.9bln impact on liquidity; Nordea explains that “On the ten SOMA days since the end of February, EUR/USD has always been lower at CET17:15 vs CET08:00, by an average of 0.25%”. In terms of where the majors stand vs. the USD, EUR/USD was unable to hold onto initial gains after Friday’s low at 1.1336 eventually gave way. As such, a test of 1.1300 to the downside could now well be on the cards. Option expiry activity for the pair could be a guiding force later on with 871mln due 1.1275-85, 2.2bln between 1.1300-25 and a further 1.47bln between 1.1340-50. EUR relatively unreactive to EZ inflation prints with headline Y/Y CPI in-line with Exp. at 2.2%, core and super-core metrics both slightly firmer than forecast. The AUD remains softer vs. the USD in the wake of domestic inflation metrics whereby all figures either missed or printed in-line with estimates and which was below the RBA’s 2%-3% target range. The data sent AUD/USD back below 0.7100 with Chinese PMI readings thereafter guiding the pair to session lows of 0.7073 before staging a mild recovery back towards the 0.71 handle. Elsewhere for the region, USD/JPY trades relatively unchanged as the risk environment outweighs mild USD softness; prices trade in close proximity to the 113.00 handle and just below 1.3bln in expiries at 113.10-20.0 Finally, focus during the Asia-Pac session also fell on the INR which faced some selling pressure amid a widening rift between the RBI and government with reports noting that Governor Patel may consider resigning; reports briefly pushed USD/INR above the 74.00 level. Turkish Central Bank Governor reiterates that the central bank will maintain a tight monetary policy decisively and further tightening will be delivered if needed with the use of all available instruments.

In commodities, WTI (+0.4%) and Brent (+0.8%) are both in the green amid a positive risk tone. This comes alongside markets preparing for Iranian sanctions coming into effect next week. Last night’s APIs showed a larger-than-expected crude stock build, although this was almost half of last week’s figure. Trader’s will be keeping an on US oil production numbers released later today with the weekly DoEs. Gold is trading in the red, albeit off lows amid safe haven outflows as equity markets continue to trade positively following the momentum from Asia. In related news, the London Bullion Market Association predicts that gold is to reach USD 1532/oz by October of next year. Separately, disappointing Chinese manufacturing PMI has resulted in a fall in the price of both zinc and copper, as well as affecting the outlook for China metals demand.

Looking at the day ahead, there should be some focus on the Q3 employment cost index (+0.7% qoq expected) along with the October ADP employment change report and October Chicago PMI. Worth flagging today also is scheduled comments from Italian Finance Minister Tria this morning, along with comments from the ECB’s Nowotny, Hansson and Nouy. Earnings wise today we’ve got Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline, General Motors, Anthem, ADP, Estee Lauder, AIG, and Yum Brands.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 4.9%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 187,000, prior 230,000
  • 8:30am: Employment Cost Index, est. 0.7%, prior 0.6%
  • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 60, prior 60.4

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The tech sector had another wild ride yesterday, first tricking and then treating investors – especially into the US close. The NY FANG index reversed an early decline of as much as -2.33% to close up +1.88% – snapping a two day run which saw the index lose nearly $250bn in market cap. After the close Facebook posted EPS of $1.76 versus expectations for $1.47, but revenues were softer at $13.73bn versus $13.80bn. Facebook shares initially fell but recovered to be up +3.37% after hours. After Facebook, fellow tech company eBay reported mixed earnings, beating profit forecasts and upgrading its fourth quarter guidance, but posting weaker free cash flow and sales growth.

Before all this the S&P 500, DOW, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 closed +1.57%, +1.77%, +1.58% and +1.99% respectively last night – only the fifth time this month that all four bourses have closed higher. Markets had earlier pared their gains around US lunchtime and flirted with turning red, but ultimately rallied into the close, with the VIX ending the session -1.34pts at 23.36.

This morning in Asia positive sentiment from Wall Street has carried over with the Nikkei (+1.67%), Hang Seng (+0.60%), Shanghai Comp (+1.13%) and Kospi (+0.33%) all up along with most Asian markets. In terms of data, the official China October PMIs were released with the composite reading at 53.1 (vs. 54.1 in previous month) as both the manufacturing PMI (at 50.2 vs. 50.6 expected) and services PMI (at 53.9 vs. 54.6 expected) decelerated. The accompanying statement with the PMI release attributed the weakness to the long holiday in October but also admitted that the external environment is starting to drag manufacturing lower. In the details for the manufacturing PMI, the new export orders decelerated to 46.9 from 48.0 in September, marking the 5th consecutive month with a sub 50 reading. In the meantime, China’s onshore yuan continues to attract attention and remains under pressure with it reaching the level of 6.9714 yesterday, the lowest since May 2008. It is currently trading
flattish in the Asian session at 6.9668, as we type.

Overnight, the BoJ left key interest rates and asset purchase targets unchanged while the BoJ’s quarterly outlook report indicated  that inflation will remain below its 2% target at least until early 2021 and lowered the 2018 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% from 1.5%. The BoJ also added a statement in its outlook report about the need to “pay close attention to future developments” regarding risks to the financial system, while saying that the risks are not currently significant thanks to sufficient capital bases. The BoJ is also seeing the current core-CPI rising to around 1% yoy from earlier range of 0.5%-1%, which was lowered at June meeting. The BoJ will release its schedule for JGB purchases next month at 5pm Tokyo time today (8am BST) which is likely to be closely watched given the recent news from Asahi that the BoJ might tweak the schedule and also BoJ Governor Kuroda’s presser will likely be started by the time this reaches your inbox.

Outside of Facebook and eBay, other major earnings were a bit disappointing when you include guidance. GE stock fell 8.88% to a new 9-year low, and the company’s benchmark 2035 bonds dropped to a record low price, after the company cut its dividend to $0.01 per share from $0.12 and announced that the SEC is expanding an investigation into the company’s accounting practices. Mastercard and Pfizer also traded lower, despite beating earnings estimates, as the market continues to punish companies for moderating guidance of missing on revenues. Coca-Cola was a bright spot, gaining +2.54% after beating on most major metrics and maintaining strong guidance.

In contrast to the US yesterday Europe largely struggled for traction from the moment the Italy and Euro Area GDP figures hit early in the session. More on that shortly but by the close the STOXX 600 had finished +0.01% and the DAX -0.42%. Italy’s FTSE MIB also ended -0.22% after being up as much as +0.73% while 10y BTP yields rose +13.8bps. Bunds and Treasuries on the other hand were -0.9bps and +3.8bps respectively.

Oil prices fell -1.72% to a two-month low amid reports that China and India, the top two buyers of Iranian oil, will defy American sanctions and continue to buy imports from Iran. Europe and South Korea have also indicated some degree of unwillingness to accommodate US sanctions, and there could therefore be minimal downside for Iranian oil exports moving forward – though they are already down -500,000bpd to 1.6mmbpd as of September. With less pressure on the supply side of the global oil balance, there could be scope for oil prices to remain pressured.

The British pound was pressured in yesterday’s trading, dropping -0.64% versus the dollar as S&P indicated that the potential for a no-deal Brexit outcome is a factor in its ratings decision for the UK. They argued that such a scenario would result in a “moderate recession” and cautioned that the odds have risen, given the apparent impasse within the governing coalition over how to address the Irish border issue in the withdrawal treaty. Separately, however, the DUP agreed to support the autumn budget removing the tail risk of a nearterm potential government crisis.

Back to the data. As noted earlier in Europe the big focus was on the Italian GDP preliminary print which disappointed at 0.0% qoq for Q3 compared to expectations for a +0.2% reading. That’s the first time the Italian economy has stalled since Q4 2014 with the last negative reading coming in Q2 2014. Our Italian economist Clemente De Lucia made the point yesterday that the focus will now turn to growth over the coming quarters as the fiscal expansionary plan put out by the government is largely based on the assumption that growth will surprise to the upside and converge to broader euro area levels. However with tighter financial conditions, elevated uncertainty, and softer Q4 data so far, the risks certainly appear to be to the downside for now. Post the data, Deputy PM Salvini stated that the government will push ahead with the budget regardless, while also blaming the weak quarter growth on the previous government.

That data – combined with a slightly softer than expected France reading (+0.4% qoq vs. +0.5% expected) – played a role in the broader Euro Area miss (+0.2% qoq vs. +0.4% expected) although there is likely to also be softness elsewhere in the region. Either the German economy must have contracted in the third quarter, Spain must have had a notable miss to our expectations for +0.6% qoq growth, or smaller countries like Ireland and the Netherlands must have had a marked slowdown. While the annual rate slipped to +1.7% yoy the previous quarter reading was revised up one-tenth to +2.2%. Also out yesterday was the preliminary October CPI reading in Germany which came in as expected at +0.1% mom and +2.4% yoy. That annual reading is actually the highest in over a decade now. German unemployment stayed steady at 5.1% as expected.

In the US the data was a bit more contrasting. The consumer confidence data for October was actually stronger than September, following downward revisions. The headline reading rose +2.6pts to 137.9 (vs. 135.9 expected) and marked a new post crisis high – in fact a new 18 year high. The present conditions index also rose 3.4pts to 172.8 and the expectations component 2.1pts to 114.6. The associated statement highlighted that employment growth continues to fuel sentiment, however next month’s data should be more interesting in light of capturing the full market crash in October and also the midterm elections. Meanwhile, the latest housing market data was a tad softer in the US yesterday. The August S&P CoreLogic house price index fell to +5.5% yoy from +5.9% and is now at the  lowest since December 2016.

To the day ahead now where the early focus in Europe this morning should be with the October CPI figures for the broader Eurozone. The consensus is for a lift in the YoY core rate to +1.1% yoy from +0.9% in September. Prior to this we’ll get France’s CPI report while a little later on we also get the same data in Italy. The release of the Central Bank of Turkey’s inflation report could also be worth a watch in EM land while Brazil’s latest policy meeting is also due today. This afternoon in the US there should be some focus on the Q3 employment cost index (+0.7% qoq expected) along with the October ADP employment change report and October Chicago PMI. Worth flagging today also is scheduled comments from Italian Finance Minister Tria this morning, along with comments from the ECB’s Nowotny, Hansson and Nouy. Earnings wise today we’ve got Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline, General Motors, Anthem, ADP, Estee Lauder, AIG, and Yum Brands.

 

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.73 POINTS OR 1.35% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 394.16 POINTS OR 1.60% //The Nikkei closed UP 463.17 OR 1.60%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.43%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9722 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 66.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN AT 6.9722 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9757: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3 C CHINA

A terrific commentary from James Rickard’s as he explains the world’s dollar shortage. Even though the Fed has printed 4.4 trillion dollars the world has borrowed 70 trillion dollars.  In essence China is short dollars because it cannot pay back all the dollars it has borrowed

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Rickards: China’s Debt Bomb Is Ready To Explode

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

The great Chinese growth slowdown has been proceeding in stages for the past two years. The reason is simple. Much of China’s “growth” (about 25% of the total) has consisted of wasted infrastructure investment in ghost cities and white elephant transportation infrastructure.

That investment was financed with debt that now cannot be repaid. This was fine for creating short-term jobs and providing business to cement, glass and steel vendors, but it was not a sustainable model since the infrastructure either was not used at all or did not generate sufficient revenue.

China’s future success depends on high-value-added technology and increased consumption. But shifting to intellectual property and the consumer means slowing down on infrastructure, which will slow the economy.

In turn, that means exposing the bad debt for what it is, which risks a financial and liquidity crisis. China started to do this last year but quickly turned tail when the economy slowed. Now the economy has slowed so much that markets are collapsing.

But doesn’t China have over $1 trillion of reserves to prop up its financial system?

On paper, that’s true. But in reality, China is “short” U.S. dollarsThe Chinese may have $1.4 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities in its reserve position, but they need those assets possibly to bail out their banking system or defend the yuan.

Meanwhile, the Chinese banking sector, which in many ways is an extension of the state, owes $318 billion in U.S. dollar-denominated deposits of commercial paper.

From a bank’s perspective, borrowing in dollars is going short dollars because you need dollar assets to back up those liabilities if the original lenders want their money back. For the most part, the banks don’t have those assets because they converted the dollar to yuan to prop up local real estate Ponzis and local corporations.

There’s not much left over to bail out the corporate, individual and real estate sectors.

This is all part of a global “dollar shortage” attributable to Fed tightening, both in the forms of higher rates but also a reduction in base money.

A dollar shortage seems implausible in a world where the Fed printed $4.4 trillion. But while the Fed was printing, the world borrowed over $70 trillion (on top of prior loans), so the dollar shortage is real. The math is inescapable.

So the Chinese debt bomb that has been a long time in the making is finally getting ready to explode. The economy is slowing, debt is exploding and the trade war with Trump has hurt China’s exports needed to earn dollars to pay the debts.

The defaults are beginning to pile up. Several large corporations and regional governments have defaulted recently.

China’s leaders have panicked at the slowdown and have started the credit flow again with lower interest rates, higher bank leverage and more debt-financed, government-directed infrastructure spending.

Of course, this solution is strictly temporary. All it does is postpone the day of reckoning and make the debt crisis worse when it does arrive.

With every passing day, a Chinese financial collapse draws closer. The rest of the world will not escape the consequences.

When the crisis strikes in full force, possibly in 2019, the rest of the world will not be spared.

end
China vows more stimulus as their economy is on the verge of contraction.  The problem here is that the Chinese will fund “bridges going nowhere”  This is heading for a complete collapse.
(courtesy zerohedge)

China Vows More Stimulus With Economy On Verge Of Contraction

Overnight, China revealed the latest confirmation that its economy is slowing more conventional wisdom realizes when the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October – on the verge of a sub-50 contraction – down from 50.8 in September and below the 50.6 estimate. It was also the lowest number since July 2016 with almost all sub-indexes showing weaker growth momentum. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI also missed, printing at 53.9, and declining from 54.9 due to the weaker services PMI.

Commenting on the report, Goldman said that “growth faced increased downward pressures in the manufacturing sector” and highlighting the continued decline of trade-related indexes, noted that “weaker external demand has possibly weighed on activity growth in the manufacturing sector.”  Meanwhile, weaker auto sales also translated into soft auto manufacturing activities and dragged on overall manufacturing growth.

Goldman also blamed “slower property transactions” for the drop in the services PMI, which was further impacted by the the drop in the stock market : the NBS observed that the October PMI reading for the securities industry was the lowest this year, excluding the Chinese New Year months.

But most importantly, Goldman – as well as most China watchers – took the report to indicate further accommodative policy would be ushered in by Beijing to support contracting economic growth (Goldman expects one more RRR cut before the end of this year).

Perhaps hearing this request, on Wednesday China’s leadership vowed that further stimulus is being planned to prevent the broad slowdown from taking hold. Admitting that Beijing’s cocktail of fiscal and monetary stimulus has been behind the curve, a Wednesday Politburo meeting chaired by the president said that “downward pressure” is increasing, and the government needs to take timely measures to counter this.

“Changes are happening even though the economy is still stable. Downward pressure on the economy has grown, some companies have a large number of operational difficulties, and some risks and hazards that accumulated over a long time are revealing themselves” the Politburo statement said, promising to take preemptive action “in a timely manner.”

“The leadership is paying great attention to the problems, and will be more preemptive and take action in a timely manner,” according to the statement. The Politburo reiterated that China will maintain a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, while trying to find solutions to help private businesses.

And yet, despite its reluctant promises, China finds itself in a dilemma: any further monetary easing will devalue the Yuan below 7.00 against the dollar, a critical level to both the PBOC, and to the Trump trade hawks, who will see breach of this key level as confirmation of currency war and react appropriately. Meanwhile, further fiscal stimulus would mean even more debt in a nation which already has over 300% debt/GDP, will record a record number of corporate bond defaults in 2018, and has been grappling with periodic on again, off again deleveraging campaigns which have so fair in reducing China’s debt load.

And just in case stabilizing the economy was not enough, China has been grappling with a plunge in its stock market in recent months. Meanwhile, China’s economy continues to contract and Beijing needs to respond, or else suffer the worst possible outcome: social insurrection as millions of angry, unemployed workers find themselves without a job for an extended period of time.

In response, earlier this month, the government and central bank introduced a raft of measures to stabilize sentiment, adding to steps to boost liquidity in the financial system, tax deductions for households and targeted measures aimed at helping exporters. Alas, those measures have yet to have much effect.

“The spring of 2019 will be the real difficult time for China as multiple factors such as trade tension, slower sales of durable goods and the end of a property boom in lower-tier cities weigh on growth,” Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura International Ltd. in Hong Kong, said after the announcement. “It’ll be a test if China can sustain growth of around 6.5 percent. Policy makers are likely to further cut taxes and ease property purchase controls in bigger cities to lift the economy.”

“The spring of 2019 will be the real difficult time for China as multiple factors such as trade tension, slower sales of durable goods and the end of a property boom in lower-tier cities weigh on growth,” said Lu Ting, Nomura’s chief China economist. “It’ll be a test if China can sustain growth of around 6.5 percent. Policy makers are likely to further cut taxes and ease property purchase controls in bigger cities to lift the economy.”

China’s borderline contracting PMI numbers came just hours after South Korea reported that the a global economic contraction is increasingly taking hold, and just days after it reported the worst GDP print in 9 years, overnight South Korea doubled down with a shocking industrial output number, which tumbled 8.4%, far below the -5.4% consensus estimate, and the worst print since March 2009.

The contraction was pronounced in electronic parts (-7.8% mom sa) and electrical equipment (-6.0%). Together with autos (-4.8%), these accounted for around half of the sequential decline, and suggest that some of the highest value-added manufacturing sectors around the globe are suffering a sharp slowdown.

Meanwhile, with Asia’s two workhorse economies on the verge of economic contraction, Trump has threatened to take trade war with Beijing into overdrive by taxing all Chinese imports, a step which would have an adverse impact not only on China, but also on the US economy, which while having decoupled from the rest of the world in recent months, as confirmed most recently by the stronger than expected 3.5% Q3 GDP, is starting to show growing sign of slowdown.

Should the US economy join the malaise that has crippled the rest of the world, the only pillar left propping up the US stock market will be the strong corporate earnings. And judging by the sharp drop in stocks this month, traders are increasingly convinced that it is only a matter of time before the US market remains “pillarless.”

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

John Rubino explains the mess that Germany is in right now and he outlines 4 possible outcomes for the Euro

a must read…

(courtesy John Rubino DollarCollapse.com)

 

After Germany’s Merkel Comes Chaos

 

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

After a long, initially-successful run promoting European integration and mass immigration, German Chancellor Angela Merkel saw the bottom fall out of her political fortunes this year. This week she stepped down as leader of the formerly-dominant Christian Democrat party and promised not run again when her term as Chancellor ends in 2021.

What happens next is almost certain to be chaotic, as the following chart (courtesy of this morning’s Wall Street Journal) makes clear:

Note that in August of 2017 the two least popular parties were the far right Alternative for Germany (blue line) and the far left Greens (green line). In the ensuing 14 or so months AfG’s support rose from single digits to around 17% while the Greens rocketed from the bottom of the pack to 20%.

If you didn’t know what these two parties stood for you might think, “Fine, they’re new and interesting, so let them form a coalition and govern for a while.”

Unfortunately they’re more likely to kill each other in street fights than work together, since the former want closed borders and free markets while the latter want increased regulation and unlimited immigration.

The alternative to an AfG/Green coalition then becomes some combination of the remaining, more centrist (by European standards at least) parties. But the biggest of those parties – Merkel’s Christian Democrats and their coalition partner Social Democrats – are in freefall, precisely because of what they’ve done while in power.

So there appears to be no way to put these puzzle pieces together to produce a stable government.

And – here’s where things get truly scary – a stable Germany under Merkel’s bland but firm hand has been the only thing holding the European Union and eurozone together. If Germany descends into internal turmoil without a coherent government to push the Italys and Hungarys around, European populists/nationalists will fill the resulting vacuum. Borders will be re-imposed within and without the EU, national government budgets – already above EU deficit limits in many cases – will explode. Already-debilitating debts will keep rising, and the ECB will be forced to bail out Italy for sure and probably several other member states after that.

Since an ECB bailout of the Italian banking system means, in effect, moving Italy’s debt onto Germany’s balance sheet, the world’s one remaining rock-solid credit will join the ranks of politically unstable, increasingly indebted countries that may or may not be able to avoid financial collapse.

The end-game? A euro devaluation will be imposed by the global currency markets or announced preemptively on some future Sunday night by Merkel’s successor (assuming there is one).

The descent of the world’s second most important currency from reserve asset to modern day Italian lira will raise a lot of questions, including:

  • Should we all buy the US dollar because it’s the only sound currency left?
  • Should we dump dollars because the US is really not that different from Europe in terms of financial mismanagement and political incoherence?
  • Should we dispense with the whole fiat currency thing and go back to sound moneythat requires politicians and central bankers to live within their means?
  • Should we dispense with the whole “constitutional democracy” thing and hand over control to a leader who’s strong enough to put things right?

These four options seem about equally plausible at the moment. But the worlds they’ll create couldn’t be more different.

*  *  *

Other posts in the “Why We’re Ungovernable” series are here.

end
Brexit Sec Raab promises a Brexit deal by Nov 21.  Let’s see how long this lasts
(courtesy zerohedge)

Cable Spikes After UK’s Raab Promises Brexit Deal By

Nov 21st

UK Brexit Secretary Raab says a deal is expected by November 21st (in a letter to Hilary Benn, chairman of U.K. Parliament’s Brexit select committee):

“I would be happy to give evidence to the Committee when a deal is finalized, and currently expect 21 November to be suitable”

It seems the algos are buying this one…

 

We will see how long this lasts – three weeks is a long time in European politics.

As Brexit negotiations really start to heat up towards the business end of the procress, Statista has made a timeline of the key dates and events that lay ahead for the UK and EU as they attempt to move towards the planned end of the transition phase on December 31, 2020.

Infographic: Brexit step by step | StatistaYou will find more infographics at StatistaFull letter below:

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/392070473/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-NpGH0Ifs8xGAresHaAlo&show_recommendations=true

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

IRAN
An excellent commentary showing how Iran’s economy is spiraling southbound,  The loss of oil revenue combining with the higher dollar and scarcity of that dollar is creating nightmares for Iran
(courtesy zerohedge0

Iran’s Worst Nightmare Is Coming True

Authored by Tim Daiss via Oilprice.com,

In what must seem like a nightmare scenario for Iran, not only is another U.S. president leveling sanctions against its economy, and particularly that economy’s lifeblood, its oil sector, but the current U.S. president has admittedly made it his mission to drive Tehran to its knees over what he sees as non-compliance over the 2015 nuclear accord between western powers and Tehran.

As recently as the start of this month, the oil markets narrative was that perhaps President Donald Trump had pushed a bit too hard by reimposing sanctions against Iran. Oil markets, for their part, were jittery while both global oil benchmark Brent and U.S. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures hit four-year highs largely on supply concerns. Some predicted that $100 per barrel oil by the end of the year was imminent, while Tehran maintained a defiant tone, stating that neither Saudi Arabia nor OPEC would be able to pump enough oil to compensate for the loss of Iranian barrels, estimated between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd.

Now, what a different just a few weeks can make. Oil prices are now trending downward, falling for a third consecutive week as global stock markets tumbled and oil markets focused on a weaker demand outlook for crude going forward. Brent crude fell 2.7 percent last week and is down 10.5 percent from its October 3 high of $86.74. WTI ended the week down some 2.2 percent and has now dropped around 12 percent from its recent high of on October 3. Moreover, in a sign of things to come, hedge-fund and money managers are trimming their bets that crude oil prices will rise.

Oil market headwinds, perhaps even storm clouds are brewing over a slowdown in economic growth due to trade war tensions between Washington and Beijing, and a stronger dollar weighing on emerging market economies, with those countries seeing an exodus of currency for higher yielding, safer havens like the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. A stronger dollar also increases the price for oil import dependent countries, with India, the Philippines, Indonesia and others particularly vulnerable.

Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York said on Friday that “We’ve seen oil prices sell off here throughout the correction we’ve had in the broad market. The concern in the sell-off is clearly global growth, and that’s immediately reflected in oil prices.” UBS analysts, for their part, expect oil demand to grow more slowly in 2019, on higher oil prices and weaker economic growth.  Barclays currently sees the oil market flipping into oversupply in the first quarter of next year.

Nightmare scenario for Iran

How all of this plays out remains to be seen, but with a general downturn in economic growth and a slowdown in oil growth demand going forward, the loss of Iranian barrels now looks easily manageable – a scenario sure to cause consternation for Tehran.

Even Saudi Arabia is bracing for a possible return of oil supply overhang, a recent nightmarish situation for Riyadh as recently as 2015 and 2016 when it was forced to turn to Russia and form the so-called OPEC+ to trim oil production and return OECD oil inventories to five-year average while giving support to beleaguered prices that had dipped below $30 at the start of 2016.

Saudi Arabia’s OPEC governor said on Thursday the market could face oversupply in the current quarter, and after a slump in global equities clouded the outlook for demand. “The market in the fourth quarter could be shifting towards an oversupply situation as evidenced by rising inventories over the past few weeks,” Adeeb al-Aama told Reuters. Saudi Arabian energy minister Khalid al-Falih said there could be a need for intervention to reduce oil stockpiles after increases in recent months.

Amid these developments, Tehran has toned down then eliminated its defiant insistence that oil markets were headed for trouble with the loss of Iranian barrels. Now, the country needs a new narrative. Moreover, the fallout for Iran remains clear. With most major importers of Iranian crude, including India and even China, already falling into compliance with U.S sanctions, the Iranian government will have to move quickly to not only make up the shortfall in oil revenue needed for state coffers but to also appease already festering public angst over the fall of the country’s currency (the rial), high inflation, unemployment and ongoing economic problems in the Islamic Republic.

Taking it to the streets

In June, the government was caught off-guard by protests in Tehran over a plunge in the value of the rial. Crowds at one point shut down Tehran’s sprawling Grand Bazaar, an economic center and a center where the 1979 Iranian Revolution gained footing. Protests also broke out in other cities in the country. Iran’s economy was already sputtering before Trump’s announcement in May that he intended to pull out of the 2015 nuclear accord, but since then the situation has intensified.

On Saturday, Iran’s parliament approved a government economic reshuffle, according to a Reuters report. The move comes just a week before fresh sanctions will hit the country’s energy sector.

“Our main enemy, America, faces us with a drawn sword and we have to fight it and we have to unite. Regardless of factions … we are all part of the Iranian nation,” Rouhani said earlier, urging MPs to vote for his proposed ministers ahead of the cabinet reshuffle.

“Part of our economic problems has to do with the (high) rate of exchange of hard currencies, but our foreign exchange reserves are better than in any of the past five years,” he said.

 end
SAUDI ARABIA
The Turkish prosecutor now indicate that Khashoggi was strangled immediately upon entering the consulate and not due to a botched interview,  They should know..they have the audio tape of the murder scene
.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkey Says Saudis Strangled Khashoggi

Immediately On Entering Consulate,

Dismembered Body

Hours after the Washington Post published an anonymously sourced story claiming that Saudi Arabia is still refusing to cooperate with Turkish investigators looking into the murder of insider-turned-dissident Jamal Khashoggi, Istanbul’s head prosecutor has delivered a statement revealing more incriminating details about the circumstances surrounding the journalist’s murder at the hands of a 15-man “hit squad” inside the Kingdom’s Istanbul consulate. 

Khashoggi

In a revelation that supports the theory, advanced by a steady stream of leaks to Western and Turkish media from the prosecutor’s office, that Khashoggi’s murder was a premeditated act ordered by senior intelligence officials and possibly Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman himself, Istanbul’s head prosecutor said Wednesday that Khashoggi was strangled to death as soon as he entered the consulate in a murder that was likely pre-planned. His body was then “cut into pieces” and presumably smuggled it out of the consulate.

Yunus Emre Oruç

@defusertt

From the statement: Turkey asked for the extradition of the suspects arrested in Saudi Arabia and the whereabouts of Khashoggi’s body. No response from the Saudi side.

Finally, adds that the talks with the top Saudi prosecutor were not productive. pic.twitter.com/DUyDvtJPK9

Notably, the statement from the Turkish prosecutor comes shortly after his Saudi counterpart, Saud al-Mojeb, left the country after a meeting between the two. The Saudis have largely stonewalled the inquiry into Khashoggi’s disappearance and killing. After denying any involvement, the kingdom admitted earlier this month that Khashoggi was, in fact, murdered inside the embassy, something the kingdom has officially said was the result of a “botched interrogation,” the Saudis pledged “full cooperation” with their Turkish counterparts. But that promise was apparently less-than-sincere. The Saudi prosecutor has since flirted with possibility of changing his story yet again to suggest that the murder was “premeditated” by the low-level operatives who carried it out.

This is only the latest leak in recent days suggesting that the Saudis have been less than cooperative. According to one pro-government columnist on Wednesday, al-Mojeb seemed more interested in learning what Turkey knew than in getting to the bottom of what happened to Khashoggi. In a statement released by

Here’s WaPo with more:

Since the prosecutor, Saud al-Mojeb, arrived in Turkey on Monday, “Saudi officials seemed primarily interested in finding out what evidence the Turkish authorities had against the perpetrators” in Khashoggi’s killing, said the official, who requested anonymity to discuss private law enforcement contacts.

“We did not get the impression that they were keen on genuinely cooperating with the investigation,” the official said of the Saudi delegation.

The Saudis have rebuffed demands expressed by prosecutors and President Erdogan himself that the kingdom disclose where Khashoggi’s body was buried, or the name of the “local cooperator” whom the Saudis claim the killers worked with to dispose of Khashoggi’s remains. Turkey has also requested the extradition of the 18 Saudi nationals who were arrested by the kingdom in connection with the murder. But while the international pressure has inspired Germany to suspend arms exports to Saudi Arabia, and US lawmakers have continued to push for some kind of punitive action despite President Trump’s obvious reluctance, the fallout from the scandal has been relatively muted. And as the international outrage subsides, many epect MbS will ultimately use this as one more excuse to consolidate power in Riyadh. Though the Turks still have an ace up their sleeve: The rumored audio recording of Khashoggi’s murder which has been widely cited in the press, but never released to the public. And while the Turks reportedly played it for CIA Director Gina Haspel, their plans for the record remain unclear.

END
The younger brother of King Salman has returned to Saudi Arabia after a self imposed exile to challenge the leader of the country from MbS.  Expect a coup shortly
(courtesy zerohedge)

Saudi Coup “Imminent” As Crown Prince’s Uncle

Arrives To Oust “Toxic” MbS

The youngest brother of Saudi Arabia’s King Salman has returned from self-imposed exile to “challenge” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) “or find someone who can,” reports the Middle East Eye.

Prince Ahmad bin AbdulazizPrince Ahmad bin Abdulaziz is reportedly hoping to oust his 33-year-old nephew in the wake of an allegedly state-sanctioned murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. MbS has virtual control over Saudi Arabia after a June 2017 shakeup in which King Salman removed Muhammad bin Nayef as heir apparent.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

The septuagenarian prince, an open critic of bin Salman (MBS), has travelled with security guarantees given by US and UK officials.

He and others in the family have realised that MBS has become toxic,” a Saudi source close to Prince Ahmad told Middle East Eye.

“The prince wants to play a role to make these changes, which means either he himself will play a major role in any new arrangement or to help to choose an alternative to MBS.” –Middle East Eye

Prince Ahmad has reportedly been meeting with other members of the Saudi royal family living outside the kingdom, along with “figures inside the kingdom” who have encouraged him to usurp his nephew. According to MEE, “there are three senior princes who support Prince Ahmad’s move,” who remain unnamed to protect their security.

According to Saudi dissident Prince Khalid Bin Farhan Al Saud, he expects a coup to be orchestrated against King Salman and MbS, as reported by the Middle East Monitorwhich reports that a coup is “imminent.”

“The coming period will witness a coup against the king and the crown prince,” said Prince Khalid while commenting on the Khashoggi murder.

Khashoggi, a 59-year-old Washington Post journalist who had criticized the Crown Prince, was murdered on October 2 after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to obtain paperwork ahead of his upcoming wedding. His body has not been found, but is believed to have been dismembered after he was reportedly choked to death.

Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, 76, has been living in the UK for several years after serving as Saudi Arabia’s deputy minister of interior between 1975 – 2012, and briefly as minister of interior in 2012. Ahmed was seen as a potential candidate to succeed King Salman in the early 2000’s, however he was sidelined in March 2014 amid one of several shakeups within the House of Saud.

On November 4, 2017 bin Salman began arresting as many as 500 Saudi princes, government ministers and businessmen – detaining them in the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh. Private jets were grounded to prevent people from fleeing, while over 2,000 domestic bank accounts and other assets were frozen as the government targeted up to $800 billion in wealth that was reportedly “linked to corruption.”

Prince Ahmad was protected from the purge, as MbS was unable to touch any sons of King Abdulaziz, founder of the modern Saudi state.

Standoff with Turkey

As MEE notes, Prince Ahmad’s return comes amid a tense standoff between Saudi Arabia and Turkey following the Khashoggi murder. Turkish authorities have demanded to know what happened to the journalist’s body and have requested audio of the execuiton rumored to exist.

In a thinly veiled attack on the crown prince, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday accused the Saudis of protecting the person responsible for the murder.

“A game to save somebody lies beneath this,” Erdogan told reporters following a speech in parliament on Tuesday. “We won’t leave Khashoggi’s murder behind.”

The Turkish president, who outlined some of the investigation into Khashoggi’s murder in an address last week, has promised to reveal more details about the killing but has so far refrained from doing so. –Middle East Eye

Despite Saudi chief prosecutor Saud al-Mojeb and Istanbul’s chief prosecutor Ifran Fidan meeting twice over the last several days, no progress has been reported.

Saud al-MojebThe Saudis, meanwhile, continue to refuse Turkish investigators access to a well located at the home of the consul-general which lies 500 meters from the consulate.

So far 18 suspects have been arrested in the murder, 15 of whom were members of a death squad reportedly sent to kill Khashoggi. MbS, meanwhile, has denied any knowledge of the operation which reportedly included five members of his personal security detail – three of whom have accompanied the Crown Prince on high-profile trips to Washington, London and Paris.

Prince Ahmad’s opposition to MbS

The exiled prince has challenged his nephew at least three times, according to MEE.

First, in the summer of 2017, when the king’s brother was one of three members of the Allegiance Council, a body of senior royals tasked with choosing the succession, to oppose bin Salman’s appointment as crown prince.

Prince Ahmed pointedly did not give an oath of allegiance to his nephew when he was made King Salman’s heir.

Second, when Prince Ahmad and King Salman’s brother, Abdelrahman bin Abdulaziz, died last year. Only two pictures were hung at the reception given by Prince Ahmad, that of King Abdulaziz and the current monarch. The crown prince’s portrait was notably missing.

Third, last month, when Prince Ahmad approached Yemeni and Bahraini protesters outside his London home who were calling the al-Sauds a criminal family.

Middle East Eye

@MiddleEastEye

The brother of Saudi Arabia’s King Salman was heckled outside his residence in London.

So he confronted protesters telling them to blame King Salman and the Saudi Crown Prince instead

Ahmad told the hecklers that the Saudi royal family as a whole is not responsible for the war in Yemen – just the king and crown prince.

They are responsible for crimes in Yemen. Tell Mohammed bin Salman to stop the war,” Ahmad told them in Arabic.

END
RUSSIA/USA
Now this is getting serious:  Russia is assessing a military base in Cuba after the USA pulls out of the INF
(courtesy zerohedge)

Cuban Crisis 2.0: Russia “Assessing” Military

Base In Cuba After US INF Pullout

A senior Russian official proposed that his country is seriously considering establishing a military base in Cuba in response to Trump’s plan to quit the INF treaty, predicting that “a new Cuban crisis” could erupt if the US and Russia fail to come to terms.

According to General Vladimir Shamanov, the head of the Russian lower house of parliament’s defense committee and a former airborne troops commander, with the US planning on walking away from the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force (INF) treaty, Russia’s response should be in the “spirit of those times”, by reactivating Russian military facilities in Cuba.

The U.S. and Russia have accused one another of violating the agreement, but President Donald Trump has announced his intention to now end it, paving the way for new nuclear and conventional weapons systems at a time of heightened tensions, Newsweek reported.

A display shows excerpts to US President John F. Kennedy’s October 22, 1962 televised address about the Cuban Missile Crisis. Photo Reuters“In order to strengthen our military presence in Cuba, we need at least the consent of the Cuban government. After all, this question is more political than military, and today, it’s probably premature to talk about any specific measures in response to a possible U.S. withdrawal from INF,” Shamanov told the Interfax news agency.

“Now the active phase of assessing this scenario is underway and proposals will next be prepared with estimates,” he added.

This issue may be raised when Cuba’s new president, Miguel Diaz-Canel, visits Russia in early November. Diaz-Canel, a fresh face of Cuba’s Communist Party, is wary of foreign military presence, but “politics is living matter,” Shamanov said, adding that “Cuba has its own interests and it was hurt by US sanctions.”

The Russian politician went on to say that he would “not exclude” the prospect of a Russian military base in the Caribbean country coming up during these talks, which would also reportedly include a $50 million Russian loan for Cuba to buy weapons. Selected by his country’s National Assembly to replace 86-year-old Raúl Castro in April, Díaz-Canel will then go on to visit the world’s four other communist countries—China, North Korea, Vietnam and Laos.

Aerial view of a Soviet medium-range ballistic missile site with notations indicating the placement of a launch control center, a missile erector, and a missile shelters, among other things, Sagua la Grande, Cuba, October 23, 1962. This was one of the photographs that precipitated the “Cuban Missile Crisis,” which some have warned could be repeated with a U.S. withdrawal of the INF treaty. Getty Images.The retired Airborne General had previously urged Moscow and Washington to come to terms and get back to reconciliation.

Last week, Shamanov himself told the official RIA Novosti outlet that “if we don’t stop now and don’t sit down to talk, then we could, in the long run, create conditions comparable to the Caribbean crisis.” That same day, Russian Senator Alexei Pushkov told the state-run Tass Russian News Agency that “the danger is that the United States is pushing the world to another Cuban Missile Crisis.”

The Cuban Missile Crisis was a major confrontation that brought the United States and the Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear war in early 1960s after a failed CIA-sponsored attempt to overthrow the Cuban government in 1961. During the standoff, Moscow stationed Soviet nuclear-tipped missiles in Cuba in response to the deployment of similar-class American missiles in Turkey.

While Trump initially entered office expressing hope for a rapprochement between Washington and Moscow, he has also called for an expansion of military might. Last week, he announced that he sought to pull out of the INF treaty, a measure that banned the deployment of land-based nuclear and non-nuclear ballistic missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,420 miles).

The Kremlin has warned that such a move showed the U.S. was, in fact, working on weapons systems that would violate the INF and “if these systems are being developed, then actions are necessary from other countries, in this case, Russia, to restore balance in this sphere.” Other current and former Russian politicians have drawn comparisons to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Recently, former Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev, who signed the INF treaty alongside President Ronald Reagan in 1987, also cautioned of a new arms race erupting should the deal unravel. In April, he cited the Cuban Missile Crisis as he urged the U.S. and Russia to come together because military incidents between them “in today’s charged atmosphere can lead to big trouble.”

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

ARG

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1349 UP .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.07  UP 0.006  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2766 UP   0.0059  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3129  UP .0013 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 23 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1409; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 34.73 POINTS OR 1.35%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 394.16 POINTS OR 1.60% 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.43% /EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 463.17 POINTS OR 2.16%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 394.16 POINTS OR 1.60% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.73 POINTS OR 1.35%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.43%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 463.17 POINTS OR 2.16%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1218.50.

silver:$14.34

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.14% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.38 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.00 UP 0  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \4: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.87% DOWN 1    in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.13%  UP 1  BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.55% DOWN 2 IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.44 DOWN 4   POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 189 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.39%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1318 DOWN .0027 or 27 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.89 DOWN .168 OR 17 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2758 UP .0051( POUND UP 51 BASIS POINTS)

 

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This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 27 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1318

The Yen ROSE to 112.89 for a GAIN of 17 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 51 basis points, trading at 1.2758/

The Canadian dollar LOST 26 basis points to 1.3141

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9757-  ON SHORE  (YUAN down)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9779(  YUAN down)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6120

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.13%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 3.14 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.38 UP 2 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.99 DOWN 1 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 89.10 POINTS OR 1.27%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 160.03 POINTS  OR 1.42%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 114,23 POINTS OR 2.29%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 97.10 POINTS OR 1.10%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP:  33.47 POINTS OR 0.18%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 66.36 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 76.19 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.80  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .33 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER by 33 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.6120 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.39 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:65.09

 

BRENT:74.66

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.15%..

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.40%/..

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1323 ( DOWN 23 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.88 DOWN ,193 (YEN UP 19 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.03 UP 2 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2772 UP 64 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4872

the Russian rouble:  65.88 DOWN 0.40 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 40 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3159 DOWN 43 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9757  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9778 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.39%

 

The Dow closed  UP 241.12 POINTS OR 0.97%

NASDAQ closed UP 144.25  points or 2.01% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.88  CLOSED down  2.77

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.541%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/BIG jump today

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Shocktober Is Over – Global Stocks Lose $8

Trillion, Most Since Lehman

Eight. Trillion. Dollars…

And it’s gone…

“The volatility you’re seeing is in reaction to a market that has continuously had a buy-the-dip mentality that is being challenged now,” said Rick Bensignor, president and founder of the Bensignor Group.

“The market is finally putting people’s beliefs to the test.”

October’s Carnage at-a-glance…

  • Nasdaq 100 worst month since Oct 2008
  • S&P worst month since Feb 2009 (lowest monthly close since April)
  • FANG stocks crashed 21% in October – the biggest monthly drop on record
  • Semis plunged almost 15%, the biggest monthly drop since Nov 2008
  • “Most Shorted” stocks down 13.8% in October – worst month since Jan 2016 (or best for shorts)
  • S&P Financials dropped over 7% in October – worst month since Jan 2016
  • GSIBs (Global Systemically Important Banks) dropped over 10% in October, worst month since June 2016 (Brexit)
  • China worst month since Jan 2016
  • European stocks worst month since Jan 2016
  • Hedge Funds were hammered as Goldman’s VIP Basket plummeted 11.5% in October – its biggest drop ever.
  • Stocks and Bonds both fell on the month (first time since Feb 2018)
  • This is the worst October for Junk bonds since 2008 (HYG saw record volume in October)
  • USD’s biggest monthly gain since Nov 2016 (Trump election)
  • USD and Gold both rallied for first month since Feb 2017
  • Gold’s biggest monthly gain against Yuan since June 2016
  • Oil’s worst month since July 2016

While the world’s stocks (ex-US) are down almost 13% YTD, US equities are unchanged (erasing the entire year’s gains in October)…

 

So, let’s start with China – because that’s where the chaos seems to be emanating from…Chinese stocks in October fell the most since Jan 2016, despite the heavy hand of The National Team…

 

European stocks tumbled around 6% on the month – the worst month since Jan 2016… Italy and France were worst on the month

 

Despite ending the month with the biggest 2-day rise since the rebound from Brexit…

It was an ugly ugly month for US stocks…

In managing to close green today, the S&P avoided doing something it has never done before – not having one back-to-back positive close.

The Dow managed to scramble back above its 200DMA today but disappointingly closed below the crucial technical level…

As The Dow tagged the recent pre-plunge stops and dumped into the close…

We note that today’s ramp was not a short-squeeze per se as “Most Shorted” stocks actually fell on the day. October was the biggest drop for “Most Shorted” stocks since Jan 2016…

Breaking the longer-term uptrend…

 

Bigger picture themes show growth stocks underperforming value stocks by the most since March 2001…Russell 1000 Growth/Value breaking below its 200DMA for the first time since March 2017…

Growth bounced back the last two days…

 

Only Staples and Utilities managed gains on the month… Energy and Industrials were worst

 

FANG Stocks suffered their worst month ever…

 

…led by NFLX and AMZN (even with the bounce on the last two days)…

 

Intraday trading in October was also extreme with TICK crashing twice to its lowest since May 2010’s Flash Crash…

But even more stunning than that, Monday’s swing this week was almost unprecedented as investor psychology switched from buy-the-dip to sell-it-all. The breadth gauge spiked to almost 1,500 before tumbling to about minus 1,700. Such a big intraday turnaround has happened only once before in data going back to 1989.

 

The percent of Nasdaq Composite stocks still above their 50- and 200-DMAs understandably has plummeted to the low double-digits.

Nasdaq stocks have plunged as one with intra-index correlation soaring in October…

 

If you need another example of the extreme pain in the tech sector, Nasdaq VIX is at its highest relative to S&P VIX since 2004…

 

Not all global equity markets were red – Brazil outperformed…

But South Korea and Argentina were worst…

 

Stocks and bonds both fell on the month – first time since Feb 2018…

 

October has been positive for high-yield bonds in every year since 2008, when the market tumbled almost 16 percent in the month.

It was also the worst month for HY bonds since Dec 2015 (and HYG – the HY Bond ETF – saw record volume)…

 

Energy HY bonds were the biggest laggard but every sector was hit…

 

Treasury yields were higher on the month (despite stocks plunge) with the long-end underperforming… (up 37bps in the last two months)

 

That is a dramatic steepening on the month – 2s30s +13bps (biggest since Nov 2016 – Trump election)…

 

The Dollar surged over 2.3% in October -0 its biggest month since Nov 2016 (election) to April 2017 highs…

Offshore Yuan fell for the 7th month in a row

 

EURUSD tested down to critical support levels today with the biggest monthly drop since May…

 

On the day the Turkish Lira tanked after the finmin announced plans to cut taxes… October was the Lira’s best month since May 2003…

 

All the pesos were punished in October except Argentina – The Real and Lira also gained…

 

Cryptos were all lower on the month with Bitcoin the notable outperformer… vol has collapsed in Bitcoin too

 

Despite the strong dollar, gold managed gains in October as crude was crushed…

 

Gold and the dollar both rallied in October – the first time since Feb 2017…

 

Commodities were pretty much a one-way street lower all month…

 

WTI tumbled today back below its 200DMA with the worst month since July 2016… to the lowest in over 2 months

 

So are you buying this dip? With the rest of the world’s markets and the most systemically important bank stocks all collapsing along with global balance sheets, roll the dice?

Do you feel lucky punk?

END

 

market trading

Junk bond yields rising setting off danger signals throughout the globe

(courtesy zerohedge)

Worst October For Junk Bonds Since 2008 As Yields Surge

Yesterday we discussed why as a result of recent weakness in a handful of shale names coupled with overall bearish market conditions, the Barclays High Yield Energy Index spread had blown out to 452bps, the widest since September 2017…

… making it the worst performing sector in the Bloomberg Barclays HY Index:

Furthermore, this was the biggest one-month move wider in energy HY spreads since the E&P crisis of December 2015/January 2016, when energy junk bonds blew out, as many shale companies defaulted on their debt.

And, according to Bloomberg, after a period of surprising resilience which saw junk spreads touch the narrowest since the financial crisis as recently as a month ago, October was the worst month for junk bonds since 2008.

October has been positive for high-yield bonds in every year since 2008, when the market tumbled almost 16 percent in the month.

And while October has been typically a good month for high yield, this month is on track for the biggest loss since December 2015 as equity volatility, economic fears, earnings and trade worries weigh.

After months of outperformance, U.S. high yield finally cracked, generating a -1.81% return in October, making it the second-worst performer of all the main bond market indexes and exceeded only by the 1.87 percent decline for global high yield.

The October rout wiped out more than two-thirds of all high yield YTD gains, and while the sector is still up 0.72% in 2018, it is well short of the 2.57% racked up by the close on Sept. 28. The former star performer in the space, the “triple hooks” or CCC rated bonds, gave up half their YTD gains, and were up by 3.07%, compared to a 6.24% return at the end of last month. Meanwhile, investment grade bonds are now well in the red for the year, losing 3.5% after a 1.2% drop this month.

Meanwhile, as yields have continued rising on the back of the Fed’s higher rates, yields have moved to increasingly daunting levels, with the average “high” yield rising to almost 7%, up from about 5.5% at the start of this year, and the highest since July 2016. Meanwhile, yields on CCC companies have once again crossed the 10% mark for the first time since January 2017.

While the CCC space has long been a favorite of momentum-chasing credit investors, yields are now high enough to where they may impair cash flows, and will certainly make it more costly for lower-quality companies to raise new funds and pay down or refinance existing debt.

Still, alongside most other asset classes, Bloomberg notes that while junk bond yields rose as returns plummeted, “there has been no panic selling.” And, as has so often been the case, investors who were just waiting for the turn, now say the recent drop is a  buying opportunity, citing strong credit fundamentals, low default rates and a steady economy as factors favoring junk bonds.

They will continue repeating this until the next junk bond selloff, when the liquidation may not be quite so orderly.

 

market data/

This us not good:  USA employment costs soar at fastest pace in 10 years due to increased wages.

(courtesy zero hedge)

US Employment Costs Soar At Fastest Pace In A

Decade

US employment costs surged more than expected in Q3. Up 0.8% QoQ (equals the biggest quarterly jump since Q4 2017), as increases in private wages and salaries accelerated, perhaps signaling that workers are gaining leverage in a tightening labor market.

Wages & Salaries rose 0.9% QoQ (+2.9% QoQ) as benefits slowed (+0.8% QoQ from +0.9% in Q2, and +2.6% YoY vs +2.9% in Q2).

On a year-over-year basis, Q3 is up 2.8%, the biggest annual jump since Q3 2008…

Government wages rose 2.3% YoY vs Private Workers 3.1% YoY gain.

As Bloomberg notes, the government’s quarterly ECI reading — which covers employer- paid taxes such as Social Security and Medicare in addition to the cost of wages and benefits — offers a glimpse at how American workers are being compensated.

The latest reading shows momentum in worker compensation ahead of October wage figures due in Friday’s monthly employment report.

With the world’s equity market bulls hoping for weak economic data to give The Fed an excuse to pause its ‘normalization’, this data crushes that hope. Is good news bad news? We shall see.

end

For the third month in a row, the Chicago PMI plunges.  The Chicago PMI is a national manufacturing index and it is a soft data and yet it is plunging..

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chicago PMI Plunges Back To ‘Hard’ Data Reality

For the third month in a row, Chicago Purchasing Managers signaled declining optimism about business. After some hopeful bounces mid-year PMI drops to 6-month lows (58.4 vs 60.0 expectations), catching down to the ‘hard’ data reality underlying the US “strongest economy ever.”

Only 3 components rose relative to last month.

  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Employment rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Production rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Order backlogs rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

Reality bites…

‘Hope’ was never a business strategy…

end

Interesting:  the Fed has eased liquidity requirements for smaller regional banks.  However, Lael Brainard warns against this move as she states there is an increased risk of taxpayer bailouts of the banks.

(zerohedge)

Fed To Ease Liquidity Requirements For Regional

Banks As Brainard Warns Of More Bailouts

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve is set to vote on proposals that would further ease capital requirements for banks with assets of $700 billion or lower, expanding on Trump’s promise to deregulate Wall Street.

The biggest benefits will come to banks with between $100 billion and $250 billion of assets – or the bulk of regional banks – who would no longer have to adhere to liquidity coverage ratio and proposed net stable funding ratio, according to prepared remarks by Fed Vice Chairman of Supervision Randal Quarles. Firms between $100 billion and $250 billion would also face stress tests every two years, instead of annually

“A reduction of this magnitude is appropriate because most U.S. banking firms in this group are not engaged in complex activities and have more stable funding than systemic banks given their relatively traditional business models,” said Quarles.

At the same time, Non-Wall Street banks that have more than $250 billion of assets would move to a “calibrated” liquidity coverage ratio that is in the range of 70% to 85% of full LCR, Bloomberg notes.

Meanwhile, large banks will generally see little benefits from today’s deregulation: Quarles said that large bank holding companies now have about $1.3 trillion of capital, and the Fed proposals would reduce that by only $8 billion.

Curiously, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said she plans to vote against proposals, arguing they would raise “the risk that American taxpayers again will be on the hook” to bail out banks.

“I see little benefit to the institutions or the system from the proposed reduction in core resilience that could justify the increased risk to financial stability and the taxpayer,” Brainard says in prepared remarks.

Her caution is warranted in light of the recent earnings shock unveiled by Bank OZK which unveiled a deeply distressed commercial real estate portfolio, which sent its stock plunging and prompted questions whether banks are covering up deterioration in some of their CRE holdings.

end

The Treasury announces its record debt sale for the upcoming refunding auction. Although this was forecasted quite accurately by the Treasury, it did not help the 10 yr treasury note:  the yield rose to 3.16% on the news.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Treasury Announces Record Debt Sale In Upcoming Refunding Auction

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is set to steal Timothy Geithner’s achievement of selling a record amount of notes and bonds as he seeks to finance America’s growing budget deficit.

According to the latest quarterly refunding statement, the US Treasury is about to sell a record amount of debt, surpassing levels seen both in the aftermath of the Great Depression and the Global Financial Crisis.

On Wednesday, the US Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee unveiled that it will increase the amount of debt to be sold at the upcoming quarterly refunding auctions to $83 billion from $78 billion three months earlier; this will be the fourth straight quarter of increasing refunding auction sizes and is driven by the soaring US deficit shortfall, which in 2018 hit $779 billion the highest since 2012, as well as the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet shrinkage.

Here are the details of the TBAC’s proposal:

  • Auctions for 2-, 3- and 5-year notes will increase by $1 billion in both of the next two months; last quarter Treasury implemented increases in all three months
    • As a result, the size of 2-, 3-, and 5-year note auctions will increase by $2 billion, respectively, by the end of January.
  • Auctions for 7-, 10-, 30-year notes to be raised by $1 billion in November and then kept steady through January
  • Auctions for 2-year floating-rate note will rise by $1 billion in November
  • Auctions for TIPS will see various changes with total tips issuance rising $20 billion-$30 billion in 2019, however there will be no TIPS supply changes over next three months; a new CUSIP 5-year will be added to the TIPS calendar, with the new security to be introduced October 2019

In total, the Treasury will sell $83 billion in long-term debt next week – consisting of $37BN in 3 Year notes, $27BN in 10 Year notes and $19BN in 30 Year notes, versus $78 billion in August’s refunding week sales.

Meanwhile, as noted on Monday, the net amount of new cash raised by the Treasury this quarter is expected to be $425 billion, a slight reduction from the $440 billion forecast made by the Treasury in July.

Notably, Bloomberg notes that the debt issuance at this quarterly refunding will surpass the previous record of $81 billion set by former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in 2009 when the U.S. was issuing record amounts of debt to fund its recovery from the Great Recession. Of course, this time borrowing is surging as the economy hums along at a 3.5% annual growth rate and unemployment is near a half-century low, a paradox which many are confident will end up making the next recession that much worse as the US will have little fiscal dry powder.

While the announcement came in line with expectations, it helped push 10Y yields to a session high of 3.16% before the move faded back to 3.14%, almost unchanged on the day as Treasury vol remains non-existent.

As Bloomberg notes, the Treasury release may draw more attention to rising federal deficits less than a week before midterm elections: Trump, who is expected to sell $1.3 trillion in total Treasury debt this calendar year, had often criticized Barack Obama for running up the budget deficit, and in 2012 recommended banning lawmakers from reelection if Congress couldn’t balance the budget.

Meanwhile, between the Fed’s quantitative tightening and Trump’s deficit-busting policies which has sent the US debt soaring, some say it is only a matter of time before debt buyers of US paper boycott the relentless increase in issuance with demands for far higher interest; for now Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has dismissed any such worries.

“The market has handled the supply very well,” Mnuchin said earlier this month, adding that demand for U.S. government bonds remains strong.

For now, perhaps, but recall that the US Treasury is on track to sell $1.34 trillion in new debt this year, more than double the amount sold in 2017. As such, it’s only a matter of time before bond buyers hit the reset button and start demanding far higher interest rates, unless of course the US economy slumps into a recession when the calculus will be dramatically revised as there is a great rotation out of stocks into bonds, offset by an even greater increase in the net supply of US paper.

Finally, putting all of the above in context, the US Treasury paid over half a trillion dollar just to fund interest on all this debt. This number is set to explode higher in the coming years.

end

This is very ominous as GE is now locked out of the commercial paper market after a Moody’s downgrade

(courtesy zerohedge)

GE Locked Out Of Commercial Paper Market After Moody’s Downgrade

Yesterday we asked if, as a result of its ongoing operational troubles and recent downgrade by S&P, GE was facing another Commercial Paper “moment”, with a Moody’s downgrade now imminent. The reason is that GE has traditionally been one of the biggest issuers of Commercial Paper to fund daily operations, and used to be one of the biggest issuers of the debt: veteran readers may recall that during the financial crisis, GE’s loss of access to the frozen CP/Money Market nearly resulting in a terminal liquidity crisis at the industrial conglomerate.

Since then, GE’s reliance on commercial paper was material, and in the second quarter, GE had on average around $16.6 billion of the debt outstanding – a sizable portion of its total $116 billion in debt.

A warning shot came in early October, when S&P cut GE’s short-term grade to A-2, a level below the top tier. That’s a rating of commercial paper that some classic prime money market funds are reluctant to buy. In fact, prime money market funds historically had to have at least 97% of their securities rated at least A-1 from S&P and P-1 from Moody’s, but those rules were loosened amid this decade’s money market reform. Even so, as Bloomberg noted, many funds would be far less willing to buy securities with a split rating, i.e., where at least one rating is below A-1 or P-1.

And with fewer funds interested in buying GE paper, the company would be forced to pay higher rates to sell its commercial paper, according to Peter Crane, president of Crane Data, which tracks money market funds. “They’ll still be able to find buyers, but at a cost of course,” Crane said. It cost 2.34% for a top-tier corporation to borrow for 90 days, according to U.S. Federal Reserve data. Companies the next tier down, where one ratings firm has GE, paid 2.71%.

Fast forward to today when moments ago GE found itself completely shut out of the Commercial Paper market, when Moody’s downgraded its senior unsecured rating to Baa1, from A2, and downgraded the short-term rating to P-2, from P-1, making future sales of CP impossible.

The silver lining is that GE had a pretty good hint that the downgrade was coming, and in the quarter ended Sept. 30, it brought its total Commercial Paper outstanding to just $3 billion, while noting that GE Capital will exit that market entirely by the end of this year.

In lieu of CP access, on its earnings call GE said it would replace that funding with a net $40.8 billion of available credit facilities committed from banks. In other words, GE will now use its revolver, which carries a higher interest rate, to fund what it previously achieved using CP. At the same time, GE said it had been working to reduce its reliance on short-term financing: Rising U.S. rates have increased the cost of borrowing short term, and regulatory changes have effectively penalized the use of commercial paper relative to other financing methods. Needless to say, GE can well do that, but it would cost it a few higher interest rate, and considering the adverse impact rising CP rates had on GE stock…

… one wonder a) how much faster the company’s decline will be going forward and b) how long until GE loses access to its revolver as well.

The full Moody’s downgrade is below:

 Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) downgraded the long-term ratings of General Electric Company  (“GE”), GE Capital Global Holdings, LLC (“GE Capital”) and its subsidiaries, including the senior unsecured  rating to Baa1, from A2, and downgraded the short-term rating to P-2, from P-1. The ratings outlook is stable.

This concludes the review for downgrade that was initiated on October 2, 2018.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The downgrade reflects Moody’s view that the adverse impact on GE’s cash flows from the deteriorating performance of the Power business will be considerable and could last some time. The weaker than expected performance at Power is not only attributable to a considerable drop in market demand and ensuing heightened competition, but also to GE’s misjudgment of financial prospects and operational missteps. In addition to weaker earnings, cash flows in the Power segment are diminishing swiftly due to a decrease in progress collections following a steep decline in equipment orders. As a result, GE’s free cash flow (after dividends) will likely be very weak in 2018, even with good performance at GE Aviation and GE Healthcare. Moody’s anticipates that a decline in progress collections will continue to hamper cash flows in 2019, as demand for gas turbines will remain soft and GE’s market share has recently come under pressure.

The Baa1 senior unsecured rating balances the challenges posed by GE’sPower business with the prospects for earnings and strong cash flows at GE Aviation that are underpinned by a good pace of commercial aircraft deliveries and significant OEM backlogs. GE has significant resources at its disposal and maintains a competitive presence in critical industries derived from technological leadership. The rating also incorporates Moody’s expectation that GE will be able to increase EBITA margins to the mid-teens level, increase FCF/debt to high single digits and reduce leverage to less than 3 times by 2020, assuming completion of the planned spin-off of GE’sHealthcare business.

GE’s liquidity is adequate, but intra-quarter borrowing needs are well in excess of $10 billion and necessitate the company to draw on its revolving credit facilities that have an aggregate committed amount of approximately $40 billion. Moody’s expects liquidity to improve gradually following the decision to eliminate substantially all of GE’s dividend and as the company progresses with asset divestitures.

GE’s strong implicit and explicit support of GE Capital, including through debt guarantees and provision of borrowing capacity on an unconditional and irrevocable basis, results in Moody’s equalization of GE Capital’s senior unsecured rating with the senior unsecured rating of GE.

The stable ratings outlook is predicated on Moody’s expectation that GE will be able to contend with the challenges posed by its Power business, considerable intra-quarter borrowing needs and high debt balance, as restructuring efforts accelerate, its cash balance increases to around $15 billion and previously announced asset divestitures are completed. The availability of other assets that GE could monetize, including its 62.5% ownership interest in Baker Hughes, a GE Company, LLC, helps to mitigate the risks associated with an array of contingent liabilities and offers the possibility for additional debt repayments.

The ratings could be upgraded if growth in Power resumes and operating margins in the Power business recover to more than 10%, while consolidated EBITA margins are sustained at around 15%. FCF/debt of more than 10% and debt/EBITDA of less than 2.5 times would also be supportive of a ratings upgrade.

The ratings could be downgraded if Moody’s expects that GE is unable to halt the decline in Power revenues, to restore operating margins in Power to at least the mid-single digit range, or to successfully fix the turbine blade issue of its HA-class heavy duty gas turbines. The ratings could also be downgraded if GE is unable to sustain FCF/debt at around 7%, in the absence of a steady decline in debt/EBITDA towards less than 3 times, or if GE does not utilize the proceeds from asset divestitures primarily to increase its cash balance, mitigate the risks that arise from contingent liabilities and repay debt.

GE Capital’s ratings could be upgraded if GE’s ratings are upgraded and if GE’s support of GE Capital, including of future debt issuance, remains strong. A downgrade of GE Capital’s ratings could result from a weakening of GE’s support or weaker than anticipated support of future debt issuance. GE Capital’s standalone credit profile could improve if the company strengthens its ratio of tangible common equity to tangible managed assets towards levels comparable to those of finance and leasing company peers and meaningfully reduces its insurance exposures. Conversely, GE Capital’s standalone credit profile could be lowered if liquidity or the operating performance of GE Capital’s aircraft leasing business weakens materially, or if other events meaningfully reduce the firm’s capital position.

GE’s bonds were not happy.

USA economic/general stories

USGS: Yellowstone Super Volcano Threat Set To “High”

The USA Geological Survey has increased the Yellowstone supervolcano threat to high.
this is dangerous..
(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

The United States Geological Survey has increased the Yellowstone supervolcano threat to “high.” This is the first time that the USGS has updated its volcano threat assessments list since 2006.

The USGS said that 11 of the 18 volcanoes they have classified as a “high threat” or a “very high threat” are located in Washington, Oregon, or California, “where explosive and often snow- and ice-covered edifices can project hazards long distances to densely populated and highly developed areas.”

According to the Epoch Times, the danger list is topped by Kilauea in Hawaii, which has been erupting continuously in 2018.  Mount St. Helens as well as Mount Rainier in Washington, Alaska’s Redoubt Volcano, and California’s Mount Shasta are also in the top five, according to what the USGS has said.

Although the Yellowstone supervolcano is a “high” threat, it’s only the 21st most dangerous volcano in the United States. 

According to Forbes, the assessment that Yellowstone supervolcano was only high was not assigned on a whim. While theYellowstone supervolcano does have the potential for a large eruption, other factors are at play. Such as the fact that it erupts so infrequently, shows no signs of increasing eruption risk today, and is located in a relatively sparsely populated area of the United States which decreases the threat. To be clear, the USGS still ranked the supervolcano as a “high” threat, but it is clearly not the most dangerous volcano in the United States.

Despite the recent gradual uptick in thermal activity in the caldera directly below the supervolcano, the new USGS threat assessment is showing Yellowstone as stable, but dangerous when it does happen to erupt in the future, according to a report by the Missoulan.

The Yellowstone supervolcano is one of the most feared volcanoes on the globe, however, scientists are constantly reminding everyone that the chance of it erupting in a violent and globally devastating fashion is rather small, even though it is said to be “past due” for such an explosion.

END

This is unbelievable.  Trump visits Pittsburgh visiting the families of the victims of this horrific hate crime and yet thousands protest.

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Hate Is Not Welcome”: Trump Visits Pittsburgh As Thousands Protest

The crime scene inside the Tree of Life congregation had not yet been cleared when President Trump, First Lady Melania Trump and several administration figures arrived in Pittsburgh late on Tuesday to pay their respects after the deadliest attack on Jews in American history. At the same time, crowds of people both young and old gathered to shout and protest the president, letting him know that he was not welcome in their city.

Even Pittsburgh Mayor Bill Peduto opposed the president’s visit, suggesting that Trump was being insensitive by visiting the city so soon after a massacre that some on the left have insisted is somehow the president’s fault (though the shooter published posts on social media network Gab denouncing Trump and his agenda, insisting that the president was secretly a “globalist” who was “controlled by Jews.”) Ahead of the visit, several Pittsburgh rabbis warned Trump that he was “not welcome” in the city.

Not everyone in Pittsburgh was so opposed to Trump’s presence. After arriving at the building where the Tree of Life congregation is housed, Trump and Melania Trump were greeted by Rabbi Jeffrey Myers. Myers took them inside the building, where they lit ritual yahrzeit candles to honor the memories of the victims. After spending roughly 20 minutes inside, the Trumps emerged and walked to a memorial outside, where the first lady placed a flower and the president placed a small stone on a marker for each of the dead, per Reuters.

Trump

The two left in the presidential motorcade about 30 minutes after arriving.

Trump made no public remarks during his three hour stop in Pittsburgh, as “he wanted today to be about showing respect for the families and the friends of the victims as well as for Jewish Americans,” according to White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

Trump

During his time in Pittsburgh, Trump also visited the hospital where three police officers, wounded in a gunfight with the shooting suspect, were being treated. Trump also visited with the wife of one of Richard Gottfried, one of the victims in Saturday’s attack. “She said she wanted to meet the president to let him know that they wanted him there,” Sanders said.

Sarah Sanders

@PressSec

.@realDonaldTrump and @FLOTUS with Rabbi Jeffrey Myers, lay a stone and flower for each of the 11 victims at the memorial outside the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh, PA.

Throughout his visit, the Trumps were joined by Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner. Trump’s daughter famously converted to judaism before marrying Kushner. They were also joined by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who is also Jewish. While CNN said Ivanka Trump and other members of the entourage became emotional at times, Trump reportedly remained stoic.

Meanwhile, thousands of protesters gathered in Squirrel Hill bearing signs with slogans like “we build bridges not walls” as well as “imagery evoking the neighborhood’s most famous resident, the late Fred Rogers”. Other popular slogans included “Hate is not welcome here.”

Protesters

Protesters

Three

Funerals for three of the victims were held on Tuesday, and were attended by hundreds of mourners, according to NPR.

A large crowd of Jewish and non-Jewish mourners gathered Tuesday under a vaulted white ceiling, tall chandeliers and stained glass windows inside Pittsburgh’s Rodef Shalom to honor Cecil and David Rosenthal. At 59 and 54, the brothers were two of the youngest victims and are among the first of the 11 victims of the shooting at Tree of Life synagogue to be laid to rest.

The brothers’ wooden coffins sat head-to-head at the front of the temple as family remembered them as social, thoughtful men who were deeply involved in their congregation.

[…]

For many in Pittsburgh’s Jewish community, Tuesday’s funeral services start the formal period of mourning the victims — a process carefully guided by Jewish tradition. A separate service was held Tuesday for Dr. Jerry Rabinowitz, 66, a physician who also was killed on Saturday. Services for the rest of the victims will be held in coming days.

For his part, Trump said he insisted on visiting Pittsburgh because he said on Saturday that he would – and he wanted to keep the promise he made to the victims and their families. Funerals for the other 8 victims will be held on Wednesday and throughout the w

 

SWAMP STORIES

Kavanaugh declines the 600,000 GofundMe account while Ford walks away with over 1 million dollars and book offers.  If her lawyers stated that they were working :pro bono…why create the account in the first place

(courtesy zero hedge)

Kavanaugh Declines $600K GoFundMe While His Accuser Walks With Over $1 Million, Book Offers

Brett Kavanaugh – considered to be the poorest Supreme Court Justice on the bench, has declined nearly $600,000 that was donated to him through a GoFundMe campaign amid a firestorm of sexual misconduct charges during his confirmation process, according to Yahoo! News.

“because of judicial ethics restraints, Justice Kavanaugh and his family cannot accept or direct the funds,” reads an update to the GoFundMe campaign.

John Hawkins, a veteran conservative blogger who runs a Kavanaugh-inspired “men’s website” called Brass Pills, organized the fundraising campaign. On Tuesday, Hawkins posted what he referred to as an “official statement” from Kavanaugh’s representatives distancing the justice from the effort:

“Justice Kavanaugh did not authorize the use of his name to raise funds in connection with the GoFundMe campaign. He was not able to do so for judicial ethics reasons. Judicial ethics rules caution judges against permitting the use of the prestige of judicial office for fund-raising purposes. Justice Kavanaugh will not accept any proceeds from the campaign, nor will he direct that any proceeds from the campaign be provided to any third party. Although he appreciates the sentiment, Justice Kavanaugh requests that you discontinue the use of his name for any fund-raising purpose.” –Yahoo! News

The GoFundMe page was organized by veteran conservative blogger, John Hawkins, who said he organized the page in case Kavanaugh needed the funds for an attorney or security.

And while Kavanaugh will forever have a #MeToo asterisk next to his name, his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford – who lives in a Palo Alto, CA house worth over $3 million, raked in over $1 million in donations from crowdfunding campaigns, and has reportedly been fielding book offers, according to Paul Sperry of RealClearInvestigations.

The potential seven-figure windfall, which she says she intends to cash in on – while still asking donors for more money – has some questioning her motivation for accusing the conservative judge after 35 years of silence, and whether it goes beyond personal or even political justice. Others worry the largesse sets a dangerous precedent: Crowdfunding, which unlike political donations is unregulated, could be routinely used in the future as a bounty for providing political dirt on opponents.

Two GoFundMe accounts have raised more than $842,000 for Ford, and the money is still coming in weeks after she testified and left the spotlight. The total does not include a third account collecting $120,000 for an academic endowment in her name. –RealClearInvestigations

“The costs for security, housing, transportation and other related expenses are much higher than we anticipated and they do not show signs of letting up,” said Ford in a recent statement on the GoFundMe page “Help Christine Blasey Ford,” which is still active and accepting donations. “Funds received via this account will be used to help us pay for these mounting expenses,” she claims.

According to GoFundMe spokeswoman Katherine Cichy, the Fords are able to withdraw as much as they want, whenever they want, for whatever purpose they deem necessary. Once requested, funds would be electronically deposited into their bank accounts within two to five business days.

Some question the necessity of the financial assistance given that much of the costs associated with Ford’s testimony – including all of her legal fees plus a polygraph examination – were covered by Democratic attorneys assigned to her by the Democratic members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, committee sources say; panel Democrats were allotted half of a $1 million committee fund for transportation, security, investigations and other expenses associated with the tumultuous confirmation process. The Senate Sergeant at Arms and Capitol Police also provided “heightened security” for Ford. –RealClearInvestigations

Her lawyers said they were representing her on a pro-bono basis. Why does she need all of this money?” asked an attorney familiar with the committee’s investigation.

END

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

“Organized Busing Operation” Exposed, Moving Migrants Closer To US Border
 
Fox: @POTUS, in interview, says he plans to sign executive order ending birthright citizenship for babies of non-citizens     https://t.co/FzUmZz1C0Y
 
@ABC: Sen. Lindsey Graham: “Finally, a president willing to take on this absurd policy of birthright citizenship…I plan to introduce legislation along the same lines as the proposed executive order from President Trump.”
 
[Ex-Dem Senate Leader] Harry Reid Once Wanted to End Birthright Citizenship for Children of Illegal Immigrants, Too    https://t.co/VRokiJYKef
 
Saudi dissident prince flies home to tackle MBS succession – Prince Ahmad bin Abdulaziz returns to Riyadh with UK and US security guarantees and a brief to cut the crown prince down to size
 
@RevaGoujon: Wow. If these rumors hold any truth, that’s a very direct intervention by US, UK in Saudi royal politics in wake of Khashoggi affair. Hard to see how King Salman and MbS would tolerate that level of meddling, but MbS may also see the need to keep his enemies closer… https://t.co/i6N7lObmOS
 
John Solomon: Silence of ‘the lambs’: The deafening quietude of the FISA court and John Roberts
There are more exculpatory pieces of evidence I could detail but these alone make a compelling case that the initial FBI and DOJ representations to the court were, at best, flawed and, at worst, desperately biased and driven by an election clock. And that begs the question: What do the FISC judges and Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts… think about what happened?…
    But a troubling whisper has begun inside the Justice Department. “FISAs aren’t required to include exculpatory evidence,” one official told me on background in a recent text message.  That emerging sentiment should alarm all of us, no matter our political stripe…
 
The MSM and pollsters are now greatly reducing their Democrat projections for the midterms.  The movement that some polls are showing over the past two to three weeks is not credible. 
We published a pundit’s comment a few weeks ago, which asserted that polls are designed to influence opinion not measure it.
 
In key California House races, Republicans are turning out early and big   https://t.co/vRInryJM6u
 
@djjohnso: Ipsos can be *very* noisy, so, due caution in order. But they just dropped the generic ballot to 2.2%. (It was 12% 10 days ago.)   https://t.co/Fnwxn2mW2j
 
@ABC: Democrats have underperformed their presidential-year turnout by 2 points on average in the last 3 midterms, and Republicans have overperformed by 3 points.  https://t.co/isyPy9vMxH
 
Wave Not So Blue in Texas; Cruz [+10 over Hollywood BFF Beto], Abbott Pull Ahead in Latest Poll
 
@nytimes: An ad for Senator Claire McCaskill says she’s “not one of those crazy Democrats.” When asked … who she considers to be a crazy Democrat, McCaskill criticized members of her own party.
 
@EmeraldRobinson: Source tells me that NeverTrumper mags took cash from top Internet company to suppress stories of bias against conservatives & Trump supporters. Audio recording of top tech executive explaining strategy has leaked to major newspaper.
 
@CNBCi: Special counsel Robert Mueller has referred to the FBI allegations that women were “offered money” to make “false claims” about him, a spokesman said… The special counsel’s office confirmed to CNBC that it learned about the “scheme” from journalists… [Good to see ‘journalists’ looking out for Bob Mueller; just like they do for Trump]  https://t.co/0T3nTjIvDT
 
@Barnes_Law: Note the real import here. Mueller finds out someone is going to accuse him. What does he do? He uses his federal enforcement power to investigate them, and then refers them for criminal prosecution. Imagine if Kavanaugh had used his judicial powers to go after Ford?  If this was a serious referral, and not a stunt intended to intimidate accusers, Mueller would not have published it.
 
More Mueller-related news: Murdered wheelchair-bound mob boss Whitey Bulger, 89, was ‘wheeled away from security cameras by three inmates with mafia ties before they beat him to death
   Sources tell DailyMail.com Bulger was about to dish on FBI informant program
I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON THURSDAY IF ALL GOES WELL

Harvey

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One comment

  1. Robert Japp · · Reply

    Harvey: could you publish a calendar for the next 12 months showing in advance when the raids will be. Your readers can use it to make money, hopefull at the expense of the banks

    Like

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