NOV 1/GOLD RISES BY $23.85 TO $1236.80 WITH SILVER THE STANDOUT, RISING BY 52 CENTS TO $14.80/AT THE COMEX WE NOW HAVE 6.1 MILLION OZ SILVER STAND FOR DELIVERY WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH/THE MARKET GETS A BOOST FROM TRUMP AND XI SPEAKING: I HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANYTHING CONSTRUCTIVE WILL COME OUT OF THIS/ MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1236.80 UP  $23.85 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.80 UP 52 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1233.25

 

silver: $14.73

 

 

 

 

Today was the last day for options expiry for London based/LBMA gold and silver options. The crooks always raid during this week in order to make options on precious metals underwritten by the banks worthless.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT: 32 NOTICE(S) FOR 3200

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  148  for 14,800 OZ  (0.4603 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

467 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

2,335,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 926 for 4,630,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6357: down  $14

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6380  up 8 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HEALTHY 2870 CONTRACTS FROM 208,976 UP TO  211,846 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 18 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  2384 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2384 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2384 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2384 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.920 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 18 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 6,610,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 

2384 CONTRACTS (FOR 1 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 2384 CONTRACTS) OR 11.92MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2384 CONTRACTS OR 11.92 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  11.92MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 1.70% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,441.65    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2903 DESPITE THE HUGE 18 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2384 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED: 5257 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2384 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2870  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THUS HUGE  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 18 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.29 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH  IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.505 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW  OVER 6 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.059 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 467 NOTICE(S) FOR 2,335,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT OVER 6 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINAL SIZED 16,570 CONTRACTS UP TO 491,511 DESPITE THE  LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A DROP IN PRICE OF $10.35).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 8996 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 8966 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 491,511. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC RISE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 25,566 CONTRACTS:  16,570 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8996 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 25566 CONTRACTS OR 2,556,000 OZ =79.52TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $10.35.???

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5311 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 8996 CONTRACTS OR 899,600 OZ OR 27.98 TONNES (1 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8996 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 899,600 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 27.98 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 27.98/2550 x 100% TONNES =  1.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,239.49*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 16,570 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($10.35) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8996 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8966 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC RISE OF 25,566 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8966 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 16,570 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 79.52 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $10.35 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.??

 

 

we had: 32 notice(s) filed upon for 3200 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $23.85 TODAY: / 

2 TRANSTRACTIONS TODAY

I)A WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES AND THIS WOULD BE TO PAY FOR FEES AND INSURANCE AND STORAGE FEES FOR OCTOBER.

 

II)  A deposit of 6.76 tonnes of gold into the GLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   760,82 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 760.82 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 54  CENTS TODAY

 

STRANGE: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

 

A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV…MAKES SENSE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY 2870 CONTRACTS from 208,976 UP TO 211,846  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

2903 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2603 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2870 CONTRACTS TO THE 2384 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG  NET GAIN OF 5257 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 26.27 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW OVER 6 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 18 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 2384 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.94 POINTS OR 0.13% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 232.81 POINTS OR 1.06% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 232.81 OR 1.06%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.21%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9421 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 65.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and 74.63 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN AT 6.9421 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9386: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

 

i)Early last night:  the yuan tumbles to new lows amid signs of capital outflows.  The yuan broke the 6.98 barrier before recovering with huge Chinese central bank intervention

( zerohedge)

ii)This will certainly get on the nerves of Trump:  China boosts its Antarctic presence with a planned permanent airbase as they cite strategic needs.

( zerohedge)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Our resident expert on German and European affairs comments on what will happen next with respect to Merkel. She is a lame duck and will probably seek the presidency of the European Parliament replacing Juncker.  Germany has faced Russia trying to solve the Syrian problem..They want a Syria where the migrants return home to their country.

a must read..

( Tom Luongo)

ii)UK

The pound pares its gain after two UK officials deny reports of a EU banking agreement which would allow British banks to operate in the EU
( zerohedge)

iii)Cable and British bonds are basically unimpressed as the Bank of England warns of Brexit. The bank England thinks that the economy will heat up in 2019

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)SAUDI ARABIA/TURKEY

This is rather gruesome:  did the Saudi hitmen dissolve Khashoggi’s body in acid and throwing it down a well on their property at the embassy?

( zerohedge)

ib)Washington Post claims that MbS tells Kushner that Khashoggi was a “dangerous islamist’

( zerohedge)

ii)RUSSIA

Russia warns that it will act if either the Ukraine or Georgia joins NATO

( Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)

iii)CYPRUS/TURKEY/GREECE/ISRAEL

As we have outline to you on many occasions, the conflict with the huge gas discovery off the Israeli-Cyprus coast is intensifying.  Turkey does not recognize Nicosia and they are intent on interceding in the production/discovery of natural gas.

a must read

( GEFIRA)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Seems that the Chinese have ditched Vancouver and instead has sought out Singapore to purchase homes.  Singapore home prices rise 13% while Vancouver prices drop 11%

( zero hedge)

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA/RUSSIA

We highlighted this to you yesterday:  India has called Trump’s bluff and will pay for Russian S 400 in roubles

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)this is a huge dagger into the heart of USA hegemony
( RT/GATA)

ii)India is trying to limit its currency loss in dollars by trading in yuan. They are allowing some imports from China to be settled in yuan( Bloomberg/GATA)

iii)I am so glad Craig Hemke notes that the bullions banks switched from long to short at the comex and thus they will continue to the end of time manipulating gold and silver.  So please do not pay attention to the “pundits” that our precious metals will explode when the commercials are short.  Gold/silver will explode when they run out of physical.

(courtesy Craig Hemke/Sprott Money/GATA

iv)This is interesting:  Trump signs an executive order targeting Venezuela’s gold exports to Turkey.  Trump realizes that this is the only way that Maduro is getting money into his country

( zerohedge)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

ii)Market data

a)Even though the results are a bit disappointing, USA productivity reported its best back to back quarters in over 3 years despite the slowing

( zerohedge)

b)USA manufacturing slumps and the key prices component jumps. Also on the negative side is export orders which slowed dramatically as financial conditions tightened.

( zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)A good one from Michael Snyder:  A huge 62% of all USA jobs do not pay enough to support a middle class life.
( Michael Snyder)

b)The red hot San Diego house market collapses with its lowest level in 11 years

( zerohedge)

c)Do not pay much attention to what Trump says.  I doubt very much if Xi will relent. Trump is just anxious to see the stock market higher as they enter into the elections

( zerohedge)

d)Mish reports on the proposal by the Fed for looser rules for large USA banks. This supposedly will provide some stimulus but not much
(Mish Shedlock)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Gillum, in a race for the governor’s office in Florida (against Republican DeSantis), project vertitas catches a staffer in racist slur:  “it is not for them to know”

(zerohedge)

b)Adam Schiff and Maxine Waters vow revenge and a ramped up Russiagate if the dems take the house
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 16,570 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 491,511 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($10.35 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8966 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  8966 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8966 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 25,566 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8966 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUGE 16,570 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 25,566 contracts OR 2,556,600 OZ OR 79.52 TONNES.

 

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 54 notices standing so we lost 72 contracts. WOW!!! we had 116 notices served upon yesterday so we strangely gained 44 contracts or an additional 4400 oz of gold queue jumped.  Gold has now joined silver in the queue jumping game as physical gold and silver is scarce at the comex.  The dealers need this physical to put out fires elsewhere. Also longs have refused to morph into London forwards and this they refuse to accept a fiat bonus to do that transfer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI ROSE by 4942 contracts  to 363,950 contracts.  January saw its initial one contract to stand at 1.  February gained 11,960 contracts to stand at 79,588 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 32 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 3200 OZ.

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY 2870 CONTRACTS FROM 208,976 UP TO 211,846 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 18 CENT LOSS IN PRICING????.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 2384 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 2384 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2384.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 5257 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED  2870 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2384 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   5257 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 18 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY?????.

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 863 notices  standing for a loss of 452 contacts.  We had 459 notices served upon yesterday so we again gained 7 contracts or an additional 35,000 oz will stand for delivery as these longs refused to morph into London based forwards as well as not accept a fiat bonus.  QUEUE JUMPING IS NOW THE NAME OF THE GAME IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AS BOTH METALS ARE SCARCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we gained 1157 contracts up to 161,161.  January saw a gain of 111 contracts up to 1053 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 1790 contracts  up to 38,791.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 467 notice(s) filed for 2,335,000 OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 176,767 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  279,581  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 1-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil  oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

NIL

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
32 notice(s)
 3200 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
22 contracts
(2200 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
148 notices
14,800 OZ
0.4603 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: NIL oz
we had 0  adjustment..

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 32 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 22 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (148) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (54 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (32 x 100 oz per contract) equals 17,000 OZ OR 0.5287 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (148 x 100 oz)  + {54)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (32x 100 oz )which equals 17,000 oz standing OR 0.5287 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE GAINED 44 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 4400 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING GOLD JOIN SILVER IN QUEUE JUMPING AS PHYSICAL SEEMS TO BE SCARCE.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.2819 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.5287 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  137,664.218 oz or   4.2819 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,066.489.712 oz 250.90 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 105 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 1 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 129,866.484 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
1,801,914.300
oz
CNT
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
603,595.700 oz
JPMORGAN
&
105,066.422 oz
HSBC
total: 708,660.122 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
467
CONTRACT(S)
2,335,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
396 contracts
(1,980,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 926 contracts

(4,630,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

lot of activity in the silver vaults today.

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) into CNT:  1,801,914.300 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 1801,914.300 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 603,595.700 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.9 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.578% of all official comex silver. (150.9 million/292.6 million)

ii)Into HSBC;  105,066.422 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  708,660.122  oz

we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;

 

i) Out of CNT:  129,866.484   oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 129,866.484 oz

 

we had 1 adjustments

i) Out of CNT

 

541,983.43 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  84.752 million

total dealer + customer silver:  292.6  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 467 contract(s) FOR 2,335,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 926 x 5,000 oz = 4,630,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (863) and the number of notices served upon today (467 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 926(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 865) -number of notices served upon today (467)x 5000 oz equals 6,610,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver. We gained 7 contracts or an additional 35,000 will stand at the comex as these longs refused to accept a London based forwards as well as relinquish the right for a fiat bonus.  As we mentioned above silver is being joined by gold in queue jumping as physical is scarce at this side of the pond.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 58,411 CONTRACTS  …

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 85,768 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 85,768 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 428 million OZ  OR 61.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -5.33% (NOV 1/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.56% to NAV (NOV 1/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -5.33%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.50/TRADING 11.91/DISCOUNT 4.70

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 1/: 2 TRANSACTIONS:WITH GOLD UP $23.85,A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES OF GOLD TO PAY FOR FEES, INSURANCE AND STORAGE: INVENTORY AT THE GLD RESTS AT 754.06 TONNES THEN A DEPOSIT OF 6.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.82

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $3.75, WE HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/731.64 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05, ANOTHER HUGE REMOVAL OF 6.18 TONNES

OCT 2 WITH GOLD UP $15.80 TODAY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.35 TONNES

OCT 1…GOLD ADDS 3.94 TONNES TO THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.17 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $8.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 1.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 760.82 tonnes

*IN LAST 489 TRADING DAYS: 172.31 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 389 TRADING DAYS: A NET 15.01 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN  18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.316 MILLION OZ

OCT 3 WITH SILVER FLAT, A GOOD INCREASE OF 1.879 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY

OCT 2 A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 332.912

OCT 1.NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION  OZ.

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS, STRANGELY WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF .517 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.457 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.563 MILLION OZ/

 

 

NOV 1/2018:

 

Inventory 327.463 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY./

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.31/ and libor 6 month duration 2.80

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ .49

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.61%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.08

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.47

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG

Alarm Bells Ring and Gold Rises In October As Stocks and Property Fall Globally

In our latest video update, we consider the performance of markets in a volatile October. Stock markets globally fell sharply while gold acted as a hedge in all currencies, rising 1.7% in dollars, 4.4% in euro terms and 4.2% in sterling terms.

Stocks Fall Sharply in October
The S&P 500 is just short of a 10% decline from its record September high and remains on pace for the worst month since 2009. It has fallen from a record high of 2930 to 2640. In October alone, the S&P is down 7.3%.

Asian shares as represented by the MSCI Asia Pacific Index have entered a bear market. Many Asian stock indices, including China, fell into a bear market last week amid the global sell-off and China is down a large 30%. Japan and Australia are down nearly 15% from recent peaks


October Market Performance (Finviz.com)

From their 52-week highs, the big tech stocks, the FANGs are down sharply: FB -33.9% AMZN -23.8% NFLX -32.8% GOOGL -18.0% and the FANG index is now in bear market territory.

Is this a correction or the start of a bear market or crash? We are not betting people at GoldCore but if we had to bet, our money is on one of the latter two – a bear market or a crash in the coming months.

Property Falls Continue
House prices in over valued markets continue to fall with Australia being at the vanguard in this regard. House prices are ‘falling by over $1,000 a week’ in Sydney and Melbourne according to Deloitte.

In the UK, the housing market, particularly in London, continues to slow down. UK house asking prices have been slashed and asking prices of almost two-in-five properties for sale in Britain has been reduced by an average of more than £26,000.

In London, 39.5 per cent of property listings have been reduced in price. Kensington and Chelsea registered the biggest drop in cash terms with an average discount of £127,394.

In Ireland, the Dublin housing boom looks vulnerable and weakness has crept into the higher end of the prime Dublin housing market as Brexit jitters deepen.

Conclusion
Many political, economic and financial risks have been ‘bubbling’ away under the surface and were being ignored as risk assets, especially U.S. stocks, kept marching higher.

As financial markets fell in October, these risks came to the fore and became harder for the media to ignore.

Yet still very few have “joined the dots” and considered how the confluence of these many risks will likely create another global financial crisis…

Watch Video Update With Charts Here

 

News and Commentary

Gold prices recover from 3-week low on softer US dollar (EconomicTimes)

U.S. Mint American Eagle gold coin sales rise 7.3 pct in October (Reuters.com)

Stocks surge to cap off wild October, but S&P 500 posts biggest monthly loss since 2011 (Bloomberg.com)

Cost of Dublin luxury homes falls for first time since recovery (IrishTimes.com)

How Gold Outshone Bitcoin In October (Forbes.com)

One ominous sign that another recession is looming (MarketWatch.com)

The Same Old COMEX Gold Games (GoldSeek.com)

Ireland in danger of turning boom to bust again (IrishTimes.com)

From the GoldCore Vault (Sept 2018): Gold Largest One Day Price Rise in History (GoldCore.com)

 

 

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

31 Oct: USD 1,217.70, GBP 955.77 & EUR 1,074.25 per ounce
30 Oct: USD 1,220.00, GBP 956.36 & EUR 1,074.33 per ounce
29 Oct: USD 1,230.75, GBP 958.88 & EUR 1,078.38 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 1,236.05, GBP 964.98 & EUR 1,087.23 per ounce
25 Oct: USD 1,232.15, GBP 954.67 & EUR 1,079.36 per ounce
24 Oct: USD 1,231.65, GBP 952.80 & EUR 1,078.68 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

31 Oct: USD 14.34, GBP 11.23 & EUR 12.64 per ounce
30 Oct: USD 14.43, GBP 11.32 & EUR 12.71 per ounce
29 Oct: USD 14.65, GBP 11.42 & EUR 12.86 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 14.69, GBP 11.48 & EUR 12.94 per ounce
25 Oct: USD 14.74, GBP 11.43 & EUR 12.92 per ounce
24 Oct: USD 14.75, GBP 11.42 & EUR 12.92 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Gold Analysts At LBMA See 25% Return To $1,532/oz In 12 months
– Gold Improves Investment, Pension and Central Bank Portfolio’s Risk-Adjusted Returns
– Gold Gains Nearly 1% On Week As Global Stock Markets Fall Sharply
– Dublin Housing Boom Set To Bust?
– Palladium Surges To All Time Record High On Russian Supply Concerns
– Happy Birthday GoldCore
– “IMF Warning Highlights Gold’s Importance As A Diversification and Happy Birthday GoldCore”
– End Of The Financial World?
– Gold Reserves Surge 1,000% In Hungary As It Joins Poland, Russia, China and Other Central Banks Buying Gold
– How Do You Sell Your Digital Gold When the Internet Goes Down?

DAG Video Still Play V2

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

 
ii) GATA stories
this is a huge dagger into the heart of USA hegemony
(courtesy RT/GATA)

Dollars declined as India plans to pay in rubles for Russian air-defense system

 Section: 

From Russia Today, Moscow
Wednesday, October 31, 2018

The contract between Moscow and New Delhi on supplies of Russian S-400 air defense systems will be settled in rubles, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov.

The move comes as Moscow intensifies recent efforts to make de-dollarization of the Russian economy one of the main pillars of its policy. The Kremlin is looking for an alternative to the U.S. dollar in mutual settlements with international partners. The key point of the plan is to make it more profitable for Russian exporters and importers to use rubles instead of dollars. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.rt.com/business/442716-india-s-400-ruble-settlement/

END
*

India is trying to limit its currency loss in dollars by trading in yuan. They are allowing some imports from China to be settled in yuan

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)_

Slump in rupee pushes India to seek trade settlement in yuan

 Section: 

By Archana Chaudhary
Bloomberg News
Monday, October 29, 2018

India is considering allowing some imports from China to be settled in yuan, people familiar with the proposal said, as the South Asian nation moves to limit its currency’s loss against the dollar.

The plan would enable direct convertibility between the rupee and yuan and would help cut transaction and hedging costs, the people said, asking not to be identified. The proposal would allow Indian exports of pharmaceuticals, oilseeds, and sugar to China to be settled in rupees, while keeping out trade in high-volume products such as electronics, they said.

India-China trade is mainly settled in U.S. dollars since currencies between the two nations aren’t directly convertible. By allowing Indian importers to pay for Chinese goods in yuan, India would be able to save on dollars to pay for escalating oil import costs in the face of higher crude prices and the rupee’s slump to a record low. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/rupee-slump-is-said-t.

end

I am so glad Craig Hemke notes that the bullions banks switched from long to short at the comex and thus they will continue to the end of time manipulating gold and silver.  So please do not pay attention to the “pundits” that our precious metals will explode when the commercials are short.  Gold/silver will explode when they run out of physical.

(courtesy Craig Hemke/Sprott Money/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Bullion banks want market rigging, not higher prices

 Section: 

9:50a CT Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing at Sprott Money, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke notes today that the big commercial traders in the monetary metals futures markets, the bullion banks, have flipped from long to short again on what was only a small move up in prices. This, Hemke argues, shows that the banks envision forever making their money through market manipulation on behalf of central banks rather than through accumulating metal and someday driving prices up.

Hemke concludes: “So, please: The next time you hear someone state that ‘the banks are getting long’ and that price is thus ‘set to explode,’ think otherwise. The banks that operate on the Comex are not your friend, they are not your ally, and they are not interested in profiting on the long side. Instead, their goal is to manipulate and manage price to their own benefit and to the benefit of their central bank masters.

“This has been the case since precious metals futures contracts came into existence in 1975, and it will be the case until this system finally implodes under the sheer weight of its inherent corruption, deception, and fraud.”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “The Same Old Comex Games” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-same-old-comex-games-craig-hemke-31…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 


iii) Other Physical stories
This is interesting:  Trump signs an executive order targeting Venezuela’s gold exports to Turkey.  Trump realizes that this is the only way that Maduro is getting money into his country
( zerohedge)

Trump Signs Executive Orders Targeting Venezuela Gold Exports

In the latest move to pressure Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro, Donald Trump signed an executive order enabling new sanctions on Venezuela’s gold sector, in a bid to disrupt trade with Turkey which U.S. officials believe is undermining efforts to cripple Venezuela’s economy and force Maduro and members of his government out of office.

“I hereby report that I have issued an Executive Order with respect to Venezuela that takes additional steps with respect to the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13692 of March 8, 2015,” Trump wrote in his letter to the leaders of the House of Representatives and Senate.

According to Bloomberg, the order which was signed by Trump on Wednesday and will be announced at a speech Thursday by National Security Adviser John Bolton, targets those “operating corruptly within the gold sector” and will have a “fairly significant” effect on the country’s economy.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

Executive order signed by @POTUS imposing new sanctions on #Venezuela.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

New US sanctions on #Venezuela target gold exports. pic.twitter.com/U0OsKGYgBU

View image on Twitter

“The new sanctions will target networks operating within corrupt Venezuelan economic sectors and deny them access to stolen wealth,” Bolton will say, according to an advanced copy of his speech seen by Bloomberg. “Most immediately, the new sanctions will prevent U.S. persons from engaging with actors and networks complicit in corrupt or deceptive transactions in the Venezuelan gold.”

While it was not initially clear what form the sanctions will take, the Treasury Department is will announce details of how the latest sanctions will be implemented later on Thursday. And while the initial effort will focus on Venezuela’s gold sector, whose exports Venezuela allegedly uses to circumvent financial sanctions, Trump’s order gives the State and Treasury departments authority to target additional industries in the future.

Bolton, speaking at Freedom Tower, the symbolic building where the federal government received many refugees fleeing Fidel Castro’s Cuba, framed the plans as part of a broader effort by the U.S. to promote democracy in the Americas.

Venezuela’s gold reserves have declined sharply in the past four years, and according to the IMF were just above 5MM troy oz most recently, down from a recent peak just below 12 million. Much of this decline is due to what some have speculated has been payment for imports in gold, and is what the US is hoping to curb going forward.

The sanctions are likely to have a particular effect on trade with Turkey, with tons of gold sent there annually for refinement and processing. Officials have also voiced concern that some of the gold may be making its way to Iran in violation of sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

Venezuela’s gold industry has been under scrutiny by U.S. officials in recent weeks, with the Treasury Department noting that many mines are run by criminal gangs.

Separately, Bolton will also suggest that the U.S. is preparing sanctions against the government of Nicaragua after the violent political crisis sparked earlier this year by President Daniel Ortega’s announced changes to the country’s social security program. The U.S. wants free and fair elections in the country, the Trump administration official said.

“This Troika of Tyranny, this triangle of terror stretching from Havana to Caracas to Managua, is the cause of immense human suffering, the impetus of enormous regional instability, and the genesis of a sordid cradle of communism in the Western Hemisphere,” Bolton will say. “Under President Trump, the United States is taking direct action against all three regimes to defend the rule of law, liberty, and basic human decency in our region.”

As Bloomberg adds, Bolton’s Thursday speech in Miami is not expected to announce any changes in the U.S. posture toward Central American countries that have recently drawn the ire of Trump after the formation of a pair of migrant caravans joined by thousands of individuals who say they are traveling to seek refugee status in the U.S.

While Trump has repeatedly threatened to cut aid to the caravan’s origin countries – Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador – the official said the U.S. has had a productive dialogue with those governments since the formation of the migrant groups.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.9421/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9386   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 2.94 POINTS OR 0.13%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 436.31 POINTS OR 1.75%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 232.81 POINTS OR 1.06%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96/43/Euro RISES TO 1.1403

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.79/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 65/01 and Brent: 74.65

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE:  UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.41%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 3.35% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.54%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.22

3k Gold at $1230.50 silver at:14.58   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 30/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.68

3m oil into the 65 dollar handle for WTI and 74 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.79DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0022 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1431 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.41%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.17% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.41%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.5523

US Futures Jump, Global Markets Rise As Dollar

Tumbles

After a torrid rally in the last two days of a brutal October helped offset some of the losses in the worst month for global equities in more than six years, world markets started off November in a sea of green with gains in Asian and European markets, and S&P futures pointed to a higher open buoyed by upbeat earnings and hope that today’s Apple earnings will ease more “growth” and tech stock concerns, while sterling rallied on reports that Britain and the European Union are close to a post-Brexit deal on financial services, even though a government official has since denied the report.

After October’s drubbing which saw global markets drop 7.5%, their worst month since May 2012, as shares took a battering on a number of factors ranging from trade wars to concerns about the global economy and higher U.S. interest rates, the MSCI All-Country World Index was up 0.3% on the first day of November. The recent rally has helped the S&P rise above its long-term uptrend.

Futures on the S&P 500 jumped after the European open, having traded mixed for much of the overnight session, and rising 0.6% as of 7am ET.

European markets followed a strong start in Asia, with robust company earnings helping the pan-European STOXX 600 index hit a  two-week high with miners and carmakers leading the way higher. And while strong results from the likes of ING Groep helped push European banking shares higher, not all the news was positive, with Royal Dutch Shell falling after profit fell short of expectations. At the same time, Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.1% as the pound strengthened on a report – since denied – that Britain and the EU are close to a deal that would give financial services firms in the UK continued access to European markets once Brexit happens.

Earlier in the session, Asian shares also posted advances with MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rising 0.7%, adding to modest gains the previous day. The index had fallen 10.2% in October, its worst monthly performance since August 2015.

Earlier in Asia, markets enjoyed Wall Street’s improved mood, and rose for a second day on Wednesday as strong company results and bargain hunting of beaten-down technology and internet favorites lifted spirits, despite an air pocket late in the session which cut the Dow’s 400 point gain in half in a manner of minutes. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.5 percent on Thursday and the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.2%, closing barely green after stronger gains earlier in the session.

China’s yuan rallied from the weakest level in a decade as the country’s leadership signaled that further stimulus measures are being planned.

Japan’s Nikkei bucked the trend and slipped 1% following two days of big gains.

“What we are seeing is the equity markets trying to rebound after bottoming out. Corporate earnings in the U.S. and Japanese markets have been relatively strong on the whole, which means there are plenty of bargain hunting opportunities,” said Soichiro Monji, senior economist at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo.

The big currency mover overnight was the pound, which surged after reports that U.K. and European negotiators have reached a tentative agreement to give U.K. financial services companies access to European markets, however, on Thursday morning this report was denied by a government official, paring some of the gains.

GBP

Sterling’s rally nudged the dollar off its recent peak, with the DXY index sliding 0.6% to 96.539. The index had spiked to a 16-month high of 97.20 overnight after the ADP report showed U.S. private sector payrolls increased by the most in eight months in October. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its biggest loss in nearly three weeks as profit taking was the name of the game, given multiple signals the latest move was overdone versus other Group-of-10 currencies.

The Australian dollar and the Kiwi dollar were also sharply higher, rising 1.2% and 1.4% respectively after strong domestic trade data helped offset some of the concerns about slowing growth in China – Australia’s biggest trading partner. “We’ve got a reasonably risk-friendly market, and with the new month we have some dollar selling,” said Kit Juckes, a strategist at Societe Generale.

The Scandinavian currencies – the Norwegian crown and Swedish crown – a proxy for overall risk, also rallied as did the euro, which rose over half a percent to $1.1376 after retreating to $1.1302 on Wednesday, its lowest since mid-August. The single currency has been weighed by less-than-stellar economic news from the euro zone.

In commodities, WTI futures were down 0.86 percent at $64.75 per barrel after its worst month in more than two years, and Brent crude lost 1.13 percent to $74.19 per barrel. The two benchmarks remained on the back foot after falling more than $10 from a four-year peak reached early in October as broader market ructions were seen hurting demand for fuel.

The focus now turns to Apple earnings Thursday, then to the monthly U.S. jobs report Friday. Other expected data highlights include initial jobless claims and manufacturing PMI readings from Markit and ISM. In addition to Apple, DowDuPont and Starbucks are among companies set to report earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,717.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 363.15
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 149.84
  • MXAPJ up 1% to 476.56
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 21,687.65
  • Topix down 0.9% to 1,632.05
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 25,416.00
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 2,606.24
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 34,505.43
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,840.80
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,024.46
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to 0.397%
  • Euro up 0.5% to $1.1372
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $74.68/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.7 bps to 3.056%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 1.541%
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $74.68/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.9% to $1,225.61
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.5% to 96.61

Top Headline News from Bloomberg

Asia equity markets traded mostly higher as the region sustained the momentum from Wall St where stocks continued to pare back some of the losses from its worst monthly performance in 7 years, helped on the day by month-end rebalancing and with sentiment also underpinned by strong jobs data as well as a rally across FAANG stocks post-Facebook earnings beat. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was lifted by early outperformance in the mining sector as BHP shares gained on the announcement of a USD 10.4bln shareholder return program, although upside was capped by indecisiveness across financials amid less than inspiring NAB results and M&A hopes with Macquarie said to be mulling an offer for AMP Capital. Elsewhere, Nikkei 225 (-1.0%) was pressured by the recent currency strength and with much of the focus on earnings, while Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) and Hang Seng (+1.8%) outperformed following the better than expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data and continued supportive efforts by Chinese authorities. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower with yields higher across the curve after the BoJ tweaked its monthly bond purchases in which it cut the number of occasions it will buy 1-3yr and 3-5yr JGBs to just 4 times from 5 times per month, although firmer demand at the 10yr auction helped stem losses.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Yuan Jumps Most in Three Weeks as USD Bulls Take Profit
  • Daiwa Finds Partner to Set Up Majority-Owned China Venture
  • Hong Kong Reveals Crypto Rules in Push to Tame Wild Market
  • Japan Victory Over Mobile Carriers Triggers $34 Billion Rout
  • Keyence Boosts Full Year Dividend Forecast, Beats Estimates

European equities trade mostly higher (Eurostoxx 50 +0.8%) after erasing initial losses as sentiment from Asian and Wall Street translated onto the region. The pan-European Stoxx 600 (+0.7%) is fuelled by earnings with the likes of BT (+10.2%), ASM (+15.0%) and Smith & Nephew (+7.0%) all near the top of the index. In terms of sectors, energy names are lagging, in-fitting with the price action in the complex, while telecom names outperform after BT raised their EBITDA guidance. In terms of US earnings on the docket, traders will be keeping an eye on tech-giant Apple who are due to report after market.

Top European News

  • BT’s Brighter Profit Outlook Smooths Path for New CEO Jansen
  • BOE Rate-Hike Plans Hamstrung by Brexit: Decision Day Guide
  • Emirates and FlyDubai Evolve From Odd Couple to Best Buddies
  • Novo Slashes 1,300 Jobs as CEO Jorgensen Reshapes Drugmaker
  • Abu Dhabi Said in Talks to Form 2 Banks in Three-Way Merger

In FX, all change for the USD and index just a day after month end when the Greenback outperformed due to multiple bullish factors and the DXY finally breached 97.000 to register a fresh ytd peak of 97.201. However, a broad upturn in risk sentiment, portfolio re-positioning and some specific impulses have prompted a marked turnaround with the index back down to 96.510 ahead of a busy agenda before NFP on Friday. NZD/AUD/SEK/NOK – The clear G10 front-runners, or heading the widespread recovery charge vs the Usd, as the Kiwi tops 0.6600 with the aid of favourable cross-winds even though the Aud is testing stops around 0.7160 against its US counterpart and holding above 1.0800 within a 1.0820-75 range after significantly better than expected Aussie trade data overnight. Meanwhile, the Swedish Krona is outpacing its Norwegian peer amidst the aforementioned rebound in risk appetite, and both getting some additional impetus from firmer than forecast manufacturing PMIs, as Eur/Sek retreats through 10.3000 and Eur/Nok tests bids ahead of 9.5000. GBP – A few negative/less bullish developments after Wednesday’s Brexit boost, with Nationwide UK house prices slowing to multi-year lows, the manufacturing PMI considerably below consensus and the Brexit Ministry playing down reports about a deal being done and dusted for domestic financial services firms maintaining access to EU markets post-withdrawal, though progress towards an arrangement along ‘equivalence’ lines seems certain. Hence, Cable is back under 1.2900 and through the 10 DMA (around 1.2873) having rallied over a key Fib (1.2911) to test the first line of offers seen between 1.2920-25, and with stops reputedly above 1.2930 on a break. Next up, BoE super Thursday from noon. JPY – Flat and rangy between 113.00-112.75 in contrast to other majors, but with decent expiry interest from 112.45-50 (1 bn) and better risk sentiment on balance likely to keep the headline pair underpinned. EM – Regional currencies are all benefiting from the general Dollar pull-back, but with the Rand outperforming and testing offers/resistance ahead of 14.5000.

In commodities, WTI (-0.7%) and Brent (-1.0%) are lower with the complex extending on yesterday’s losses over rising supply concerns; and subsequently comments from US President Trump that there is sufficient supply to allow for a significant reduction in purchases from Iran. Analysts from Huatai stating that oil investors are now betting on the potential for a global slowdown. Additionally, Goldman Sachs have reiterated their year-end Brent forecast at USD 80/bbl. Gold (+0.8%) prices have rebounded after hitting a 3-week low in the previous session, largely due to marginal dollar weakness. According to the World Gold Council, the yellow metal’s Q3 global demand is slightly higher year-on-year. Elsewhere, aluminium hit a new two year low, following the weak Chinese PMIs on Wednesday and concerns over the US-Sino trade war’s potential impact on global demand.

Looking at the day ahead, we get the preliminary Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labour cost releases, the latest weekly initial jobless claims print,  final revision to the October manufacturing PMI, September construction spending, ISM manufacturing and then October vehicle sales data. Away from all that the big earnings release today is Apple when we’re due to get numbers at the close, while Royal Dutch Shell, Dow Dupont, Kraft Heinz and Credit Suisse are other notable highlights.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 70.9%
  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, est. 2.1%, prior 2.9%; Unit Labor Costs, est. 1.0%, prior -1.0%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 212,000, prior 215,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.64m, prior 1.64m
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 55.8, prior 55.9
  • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.0%, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 59, prior 59.8
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 17.1m, prior 17.4m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

What is it about Octobers? History is quite clear that Octobers are by no means always bad, but when they are bad they have a tendency to be quite bad or at least more volatile!

Normally we publish our MTD and YTD performance review on the first of every month in the EMR but because the past month has seen such big and interesting moves we felt that the review deserved a standalone piece. In particular in the review today we will show that if the year ended now, we’d be set for a record % of assets in our universe in negative territory in dollar terms for a year. This follows last year, when the exact opposite was true. Of the assets we track, we saw the least number in negative territory in dollar terms in 2017. This perhaps highlights a world where we’ve moved from peak QE and everything being expensive to QT over the last 2 years. For this analysis we’ve used the data we collate for our long term study and go back to 1901. So this will be published slightly later this morning along with all the usual stats.

However as an interesting aside, in today’s pdf in the EMR we show the typical daily progression of the S&P 500 through the average year using daily data back to 1927. The average year sees the S&P gain +7.53% on a price basis using this data. However by September 6th, the average year has already seen the index climb +6.05%. Over the course of the next 7 weeks this falls back to +4.70% by October 27th. To be fair, September is worse from a performance basis but October has seen bigger ranges. After these two months are left behind, we then see the usual Santa Claus rally and average gains of nearly +3% into YE on average.

Highlighting the fact that volatility increases we also show the +/- 1 standard deviation of the move over the course of the year. The graph quite clearly shows how the range of outcomes increases dramatically in October before calming down through November and December. Why this happens we still don’t know after over 20 years of observing this trend, but 2018 has further advanced the legend of Octobers being difficult. So click on the link for these graphs and watch out for the performance review slightly later this morning.

There’s something ironic about the fact that despite the S&P 500 just having its worst monthly performance since September 2011, the two-day rally into month end of +2.67% which included a climb of +1.09% yesterday was the biggest since February and the third biggest since June 2016. The two-day climb for the NASDAQ of +3.63% was the biggest since June 2016 (following a +2.01% rally yesterday) although in fairness the index is only now just back to within 10% of its all-time closing high back in  August while the NYSE FANG index has rallied +5.54% over the last two days (following a climb of +3.59% yesterday) – the biggest two-day gain since February 2016.

So an impressive turnaround which at least has helped to limit some of the damage done in October. Europe also got swept up in the risk-on tone yesterday with the STOXX 600, DAX, CAC and FTSE 100 climbing +1.71%, +1.42%, +2.31% and +1.31% respectively. Italy unperformed but the FTSE MIB did still nudge up +0.27% and BTPs finished -4.6bps lower in yield following an Il Sole report in the morning which suggested that the Italian government may try to make the case to the EU that the ‘effective’ budget may be closer to 2% for 2019 versus the current 2.4% draft when taking into account slowing growth and lower spending on pensions and the planned citizens income.

Overnight in Asia we’ve seen markets extend on yesterday’s gains with the exception of Japan where the Nikkei (-0.88%) and Topix (-0.69%) have struggled with the telecoms sector down around 8% following news of heavy prices cuts on mobile plans. Away from that however the Hang Seng (+1.84%), Shanghai Comp (+1.13%) and Kospi (+0.47%) are all higher along with S&P 500 futures (+0.30%). A more or less in-line Caixin manufacturing PMI in China (50.1 vs. 50.0 expected) was confirmed this morning however notably we did see PMIs fall below 50 in Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand overnight for the month of October – all export driven economies and signs therefore of the impact of the trade war on the wider region.

Back to yesterday where EM FX (-0.33%) actually weakened despite the move for equities with the likes of the South African Rand (-1.29%), Mexican Peso (-1.40%) and Brazilian Real (-0.68%) all under pressure. The Turkish Lira (-1.92%) underperformed, as the government announced a new suite of substantial tax cuts. Treasuries nudged up another +2.1bps after the US Treasury Department refunding announcement largely met expectations, while there was a similar move for Bunds (+1.6bps) while WTI Oil fell another -1.31% and edged lower for the third consecutive session. Gold and Silver also fell -0.67% and -1.55% respectively as risk-off dissipated.

There wasn’t really a lot of new news to drive markets yesterday although the tech sector was certainly at the heart of it aided by Facebook’s (+3.81%) earnings post the close on Tuesday. Netflix climbed +5.59%, Alphabet +3.91% and Amazon +4.42%. As you’ll see in the day ahead we’ve got Apple’s earnings later this evening so expect another decent test for the sector. Yesterday we got stronger than expected earnings from 25 out of the 34 companies that reported in the S&P 500 with 25 also beating on revenues.

The narrative around this earnings season has focused on the downward revisions to guidance, but our US equity strategy team argues in a note last night that this earnings season is largely a return to historical averages, and that underlying earnings growth remains strong. Beats are around their historical norms, and headline margins continue to climb to record highs. Buybacks continue their blistering pace as companies continue to return capital to investors, though companies are also paying down debt.

In the US, our economists have updated their various market-based models, and conclude that the risks of a recession over the next 12 months is right around its historical average of 15%. We would have sympathy with this but with QT in full force things could look different in 12 months’ time. Their full note is available here.

Meanwhile, yesterday’s headlines out of the Politburo in China suggesting that more stimulus may be on the way is perhaps helping sentiment overnight, however our economists thought the message from the official press release was subtle. They note that the government did recognise the economic slowdown and promised to take “timely actions”, as widely reported by journalists. But the government also mentioned that (1) the focus of the economy has moved from speed to quality; and more importantly (2) some policies have been released, and their effect will be transmitted to the economy with a lag. Our economists think that these subtle messages suggest likely disagreements in the government.

They highlight that while some may be worried about the downside risk to the economy, others may argue the slowdown is natural and push against aggressive policy easing. You can find more in our colleagues’ report here.

Today we will see the BoE meeting at lunchtime. Neither we nor the market are expecting any policy changes with rising external risks and lack of clarity on a transition deal however our UK economists do expect Governor Carney to talk up market pricing of a rate hike next year on the back of stronger wage and output growth in Q3 which should make him sound marginally hawkish. As far as the inflation report is concerned only marginal tweaks are likely compared to the September forecasts.

Speaking of Brexit, Sterling has had a fairly strong last 36 hours. Yesterday the currency strengthened +0.47% following a Bloomberg report in the late afternoon suggesting that Brexit Minister Raab expects a Brexit deal by November 21. However, upon closer examination, this turned out to be a bit of a misleading headline and the pound quickly retraced the some of the move. The letter being cited was a week old and merely said the Raab would be willing to testify to the Brexit Committee on November 21 which could be a suitable date after a deal was struck. But the details were vaguer than the headline. Overnight however Sterling is up another +0.60% and back above $1.280 following a report in the Times suggesting that the UK and Europe have tentatively agreed to all aspects of a future deal on services which would include the EU guaranteeing UK companies access to markets in Europe as long as financial regulation in the UK remained broadly aligned with Europe. Expect some reaction to that today.

Elsewhere in Europe, the race to replace German Chancellor Merkel as party leader is on, with Friedrich Merz giving a long news conference in Berlin to introduce his candidacy. Merz has been out of parliament since 2009, but he is one of the three frontrunners to succeed Merkel. He did not offer any surprising policy positions in his remarks, focusing his remarks on the need for party unity and for including younger voters and women in the process.

On the data front, preliminary October Euro Area CPI printed in line with expectations at +2.2% headline and +1.1% core, from +2.1% and +0.9%, respectively. French and Italian October CPI both printed 0.1pp lower that forecast, at +2.5% and +1.7% respectively. In Germany, September retail sales rose +0.1% mom, less than the +0.5% expected, and, when combined with downward revisions to prior months and a substantial base effect, equal to a -2.6% yoy decline. So further evidence of third quarter softness in Germany.

Before turning to today’s calendar, it’s worth a look ahead to next week’s major event: the US midterm election. Our US team has updated their analysis of the polls, betting odds, and markets ahead of the vote. It looks probable that the Democrats will take control of the House, while the Republicans are likely to retain control of the Senate. The policy implications are a bit ambiguous,  as trade policy – the most important area for markets – is somewhat disconnected from the legislature.

As far as the day ahead is concerned then, this morning in Europe we’ll get October house prices data in the UK followed closely by the UK’s manufacturing PMI. Focus should stay here into lunch with the aforementioned BoE meeting before this afternoon in the US we get the preliminary Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labour cost releases, the latest weekly initial jobless claims print,  final revision to the October manufacturing PMI, September construction spending, ISM manufacturing and then October vehicle sales data. Away from all that the big earnings release today is Apple when we’re due to get numbers at the close, while Royal Dutch Shell, Dow Dupont, Kraft Heinz and Credit Suisse are other notable highlights.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.94 POINTS OR 0.13% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 232.81 POINTS OR 1.06% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 232.81 OR 1.06%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.21%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9421 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 65.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and 74.63 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN AT 6.9421 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9386: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3 C CHINA

Early last night:  the yuan tumbles to new lows amid signs of capital outflows.  The yuan broke the 6.98 barrier before recovering with huge Chinese central bank intervention

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chinese Yuan Tumbles To New Cycle Low Amid Signs Of Capital Outflows

 As Chinese markets began to wake, yuan just broke below 6.98/USD for the first time in this downswing,despite PBOC liquidity withdrawals sending money market rates spiking (to squeeze yuan shorts).

This has the distinct smell of capital outflows…

It has been a one way street since Golden Week…

 

And if former UBS Chief Economist George Magnus is right, any hopes for the G20 meeting between Trump and Xi should be extinguished. In a series of tweets, Magnus warned…

Trump and Xi are supposed to meet at the G20 in Buenos Aires at end month. Will they talk trade? They need to cos Trump has already threatened to subject the other of 50% of imports from China to punitive tariffs. This is how he prepares the ground, telling Fox News:

“I think that we will make a great deal with China and it has to be great, because they’ve drained our country,”.

Designed to turn XJP frostier, be even less inclined to bring something to the table, and more anxious not to be seen to be succumbing to foreign pressure.

So I think, barring something going on in the background, these talks are set up to fail, assuming they happen. The 10% tariff rate is due to go to 25% on 200bn $ of goods on 1 Jan anyway, and we shd probably expect WHY to go for the remaining 250bn $ of imports in new year…

2019 big year for China. centenary of founding of CCP. and rivals Soviet CP’s 72 years in power. Xi’s Chinese Dream of Rejuvenation of Chinese Ppl isn’t just a slogan. Being seen to succumb to Trump’s WH is just not on. Expect both sides to dig in further

Begs question as what China will do next. Xant tit for tat any more, as they have run out of room. @davidjlynch in @washingtonpost reminds us that tourism cd be a target.Targeting US firms also could be cranked up. Yuan depreciation also poss tho v risky at home too …

Much longer discussion and background written up in Red Flags, just out in the US this month….the details change with the news and announcements, but the substance is sadly all too clear.

For now, 7.00 looms heavy on the horizon… and everyone knows the target is there to test PBOC.

6.9895 is the historical low for offshore yuan (Jan 2017)...

 end
This will certainly get on the nerves of Trump:  China boosts its Antarctic presence with a planned permanent airbase as they cite strategic needs.
(courtesy zerohedge)

China Boosts Antarctic Presence With Planned Permanent Airbase, Cites “Strategic Needs”

China is set to significantly expand its presence in Antarctica as it takes the crucial step of establishing its first permanent airport and large landing strip close to its small research outpost, Zhongshan station. After nearly a decade of planning construction of the airport is set to begin in November, which state media and officials are calling a “permanent” base.

Notably, according to Chinese state-run Xinhua News Agency the airfield will support China’s Antarctic “strategy needs” and protect China’s right to speak on “Antarctic airspace control”.

Ceremonial groundbreaking at new Chinese Antarctic airport, via state mediaThe precise location is near the Zhongshan Research Station, which opened in 1989 and is one of two such research outposts, on the east Antarctic coast near the Larsemann Hills, and the project will be overseen by the official Polar Research Institute of China. Chinese media reports details that the airport is to be constructed at a spot about 28 km away from Zhongshan, with a sizable runway at 1,500m long and 80m wide. It is to primarily serve scientists and staff working in the isolated region.

However, it’s no doubt already gotten the attention of American military planners and China observers as it began making headlines Monday, especially after last month Beijing rolled out with its first domestically built icebreaker, this also following  the Chinese government  releasing “China’s Arctic Policy” in early 2018  a white paper outlining how China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will construct infrastructure projects along the northern Arctic routes, and urged its largest shipping companies to conduct trial voyages through the frigid waters. Could Antarctic exploration, on the polar opposite side the globe, be part of a broader vision of a “Polar Silk Road” which aims to find “alternate” routes and spheres of influence to bypass Washington’s choke points in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean (something which the Arctic route attempts to do)?

According to Chinese state sources, last February researchers laid the foundation of the country’s fifth research facility, which is to be built in the far south of the continent. Construction for the new projects are to begin when the 35th Antarctic expedition departs on November 2 with building to commence later that month. The air field is expected to take two years to complete.

via the South China Morning PostMeanwhile a new Australian media report confirms China is currently outspending other nations in Antarctica, even as Australia has lately tried to shore up its claim to 42% of Antarctica.

One analyst cited in the report, Australian National University professor Donald Rothwell, commented, “I’m not necessarily surprised by China’s increased interest and if in the future China is seeking to position itself to play and even greater role in Antarctic affairs and to influence the direction of Antarctic governance then obviously the bigger its presence the more weight its view might have in terms of how those future discussions go,” according to news.com.au.

Some Australian officials fear that their country’s influence is waning as China muscles in. In the most alarming and perhaps sensationalized section of the report it suggests the possibility of “militarization” of the Antarctic region.

According to news.com.au the military and geopolitical implications are as follows:

Last month, former head of the Australian Antarctic Division, Tony Press, told the Australian government it must step up its diplomatic efforts in Antarctic affairs to hold together the current treaty system and avoid militarisation.

At the same time, writing in The Australian, Prof Anne Marie Brady warned that China’s installation of GPS satellite systems on the Australian Antarctic Territory could be used to guide strike weapons and help Beijing develop better technology than the US in coming years.

Specifically, Professor Brady warned: “The US, Russia, and China’s use of their Antarctic ground stations to control offensive weapons systems and relay signals intelligence — all while conducting legitimate scientific activity — has the potential to shift the strategic balance that has maintained peace in the Asia-Pacific for ­nearly 70 years,” according to the report.

end

Well this did not last long:  The USA now accuses Chinese State Owned Company of sealing Micron trade secrets

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Accuses Chinese State-Owned Company Of Stealing Micron Trade Secrets

So much for all that US-China trade truce talk.

Just hours after a presidential tweet expressing optimism about US-China trade talks helped save US stocks from turning red on the first trading day of the month (with an assist from Chinese President Xi Jinping, who later told Chinese media that he would be “willing” to meet with Trump at the G-20 summit later this month), the DOJ has unveiled an indictment filed in California against a Chinese state-owned company and three Taiwanese nationals for allegedly stealing trade secrets from Micron Technologies.

  • *U.S. SAYS CHINA STATE-OWNED CO. STOLE MICRON TRADE SECRETS
  • *U.S. CRIMINAL COMPLAINT ALSO NAMES THREE TAIWAN NATIONALS
  • *UNITED MICROELECTRONICS, FUJIAN JINHUA INDICTED IN U.S.

Allegations about the alleged theft of chip designs from Micron were first detailed in legal documents filed in the US and Taiwan, which were cited by the New York Times in an investigation published back in June detailing  China’s efforts to acquire by either legitimate – or, failing that, illegitimate – means trade secrets that the Chinese government saw as vital to its Made in China 2025 initiative.

Micron

Micron has been the subject of punitive measures, including an investigation in China, one of its biggest foreign markets, since spurning a $23 billion takeover offer from a Chinese company. Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit Company, one of the companies facing indictment, was accused by the NYT of being behind the elaborate technology theft, while Taiwan-based UMC reportedly helped Fujian carry out the heist, claims that both companies denied. The indictment will almost certainly escalate tensions between the US and China, which has been enraged by President Trump’s demand that the Chinese government roll back its support for initiatives tied to Made in China 2025 as part of any trade-dispute settlement.

The indictment also follows remarks from National Security Advisor John Bolton who said earlier Thursday that the US must withdraw from the INF arms-control treaty to counter the aggression of Russia and China, which he accused of ‘taking advantage’ of the treaty.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Our resident expert on German and European affairs comments on what will happen next with respect to Merkel. She is a lame duck and will probably seek the presidency of the European Parliament replacing Juncker.  Germany has faced Russia trying to solve the Syrian problem..They want a Syria where the migrants return home to their country.

a must read..

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Lame Duck Merkel Has Only Her Legacy On Her

Mind

Authored by Tom Luongo,

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has stepped down as the leader of the Christian Democratic Union, the party she has led for nearly two decades.  Yesterday’s election in Hesse, normally a CDU/SPD stronghold was abysmal for them.

She had to do something to quell the revolt brewing against her.

Merkel knew going in what the polls were showing.  Unlike American and British polls, it seems the German ones are mostly accurate with pre-election polls coming close to matching the final results.

So, knowing what was coming for her and in the spirit of trying to maintain power for as long as possible Merkel has been moving away from her staunch positions on unlimited immigration and being in lock-step with the U.S. on Russia.

She’s having to walk a tightrope on these two issues as the turmoil in U.S. political circles is pulling her in, effectively, opposite directions.

The globalist Davos Crowd she works for wants the destruction of European culture and individual national sovereignty ground into a paste and power consolidated under the rubric of the European Union.

They also want Russia brought to heel.

On the other hand, President Trump is pushing Merkel on policy on Russia and Ukraine that furthers the image that she is simply a stooge of U.S. geopolitical ambitions.  Don’t ever forget that Germany is, for all intents and purposes, an occupied country.  So, what the U.S. military establishment wants, Merkel must provide.

So, if she rejects that role and the chaos U.S. policy engenders, particularly Syria, she’s undermining the flow of migrants into Europe.

This is why it was so significant that she and French President Emmanuel Macron joined  this weekend’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul.

It ended with an agreement on Syria’s future that lies in direct conflict with the U.S.’s goals of the past seven years.

It was an admission that Assad has prevailed in Syria and the plan to atomize it into yet another failed state has itself failed.  Merkel has traded ‘Assad must go’ for ‘no more refugees.’

To President Trump’s credit he then piggy-backed on that statement announcing that the U.S. would be pulling out of Syria very soon now.   And that tells me that he is still coordinating in some way with Putin and other world leaders on the direction of his foreign policy in spite of his opposition.

But the key point from the Istanbul statement was that Syria’s rebuilding be prioritized to reverse the flow of migrants so Syrians can go home. While Gilbert Doctorow is unconvinced by France’s position here, I think Merkel has to be focused on assisting Putin in achieving his goal of returning Syria to Syrians.

Because, this is both a political necessity for Merkel as well as her trying to burnish her crumbling political throne to maintain power.

The question is will Germans believe and/or forgive her enough for her to stay in power through her now stated ‘retirement’ from politics in 2021?

I don’t think so and it’s obvious Davos Crowd boy-toy Macron is working overtime to salvage what he can for them as Merkel continues to face up to the political realities across Europe, which is that populism is a natural reaction to these insane policies.

Merkel’s job of consolidating power under the EU is unfinished.  They don’t have financial integration.  The Grand Army of the EU is still not a popular idea.  The euro-zone is a disaster waiting to happen and its internal inconsistencies are adding fuel to an already pretty hot political fire.

On this front, EU integration, she and Macron are on the same page.  Because ‘domestically’ from an EU perspective, Brexit still has to be dealt with and the showdown with the Italians is only just beginning.

But Merkel, further weakened by another disastrous state election, isn’t strong enough to fend off her emboldened Italian and British opposition (and I’m not talking about The Gypsum Lady, Theresa May here).

And Macron should stop looking in the mirror long enough to see he’s standing on a quicksand made of blasting powder.

This points to the next major election for Europe, that of the European Parliament in May where all of Merkel’s opposition are focused on wresting control of that body and removing Jean-Claude Juncker or his hand-picked replacement (Merkel herself?) from power.

The obvious transition for Merkel is from German Chancellor to European Commission President.  She steps down as Chancellor in May after the EPP wins a majority then to take Juncker’s job.

I’m sure that’s been the plan all along.  This way she can continue the work she started without having to face the political backlash at home.

But, again, how close is Germany to snap elections if there is another migrant attack and Chemnitz-like demonstrations.  You can only go to the ‘Nazi’ well so many times, even in Germany.

There comes a point where people will have simply had enough and their anger isn’t born of being intolerant but angry at having been betrayed by political leadership which doesn’t speak for them and imported crime, chaos and violence to their homes.

And the puppet German media will not be able to contain the story.  The EU’s speech rules will not contain people who want to speak.  The clamp down on hate speech, pioneered by Merkel herself is a reaction to the growing tide against her.

And guess what?  She can’t stop it.

The problem is that Commies like Merkel and Soros don’t believe in anything.  They are vampires and nihilists as I said over the weekend suffused with a toxic view of humanity.

Oh sure, they give lip service to being inclusive and nice about it while they have control over the levers of power, the State apparatus.  But, the minute they lose control of those levers, the sun goes down, the fangs come out and the bloodletting begins.

These people are vampires, sucking the life out of a society for their own ends.  They are evil in a way that proves John Barth’s observation that “man can do no wrong.”  For they never see themselves as the villain.

No.  They see themselves as the savior of a fallen people.  Nihilists to their very core they only believe in power. And, since power is their religion, all activities are justified in pursuit of their goals.

Their messianic view of themselves is indistinguishable to the Salafist head-chopping animals people like Hillary empowered to sow chaos and death across the Middle East and North Africa over the past decade.

Add to this Merkel herself who took Hillary’s empowerment of these animals and gave them a home across Europe.  At least now Merkel has the good sense to see that this has cost her nearly everything.

Even if she has little to no shame.

Hillary seems to think she can run for president again and win with the same schtick she failed with twice before.  Frankly, I welcome it like I welcome the sun in the morning, safe in the knowledge that all is right with the world and she will go down in humiliating defeat yet again.

Merkel is a lame-duck now.  Merkelism is over.  Absentee governing from the center standing for nothing but the international concerns has been thoroughly rebuked by the European electorate from Spain to the shores of the Black Sea.

Germany will stand for something other than globalism by the time this is all over.  There will be a renaissance of culture and tradition there that is similar to the one occurring at a staggering pace in Russia.

And Angela Merkel’s legacy will be chaos.

*  *  *

Join my patreon because you hate chaos

 

END
UK
The pound pares its gain after two UK officials deny reports of a EU banking agreement which would allow British banks to operate in the EU
(courtesy zerohedge)

Pound Pares Gains After UK Official Denies

Reports Of EU Banking Agreement

Update (7 am ET): After the latest flurry of deal-no-deal headlines, Brexit negotiators would like investors to know that everything is under control. Talks will continue…

European Commission spokesman: ‘We cannot at this stage say exactly when the next meeting between EU’s Barnier and UK’s Raab would take place’.

…though as of Thursday morning, nobody could say exactly when the next round would take place. In other words, the deal remains ‘95%’ complete.

* * *

After tumbling to its weakest level against the dollar since August earlier this as S&P warned that recession fears surrounding a hard Brexit could elicit a ratings cut from the influential credit ratings agency, the British pound had been headed for its largest two-day gain since January on reports that UK Prime Minister Theresa May had reached a banking deal to help UK banks maintain their access to EU markets. However, the rally came to an abrupt halt Thursday morning when two anonymous UK officials rubbished the report, saying that no such deal had been reached, and that negotiations between the two sides remain stalled amid the standoff over the Irish border backstop.

Adding to the pain, an assistant to EU chief negotiator said that a final Brexit agreement was still weeks away. “Nothing has changed,” they said.

Circling back to the rumored banking deal, according to the Financial Times, the reports of the “tentative agreement on all aspects of a future partnership on services” regarding banking stirred hopes that a “backstop” deal – which has seemingly been “90%” complete for months now as May struggles with what some analysts are calling “the Brexit Trilemma”, a knot of competing and conflicting interests among different parties in the UK –  would include an agreement to protect the City of London’s banking and trading operations from the immediate threat of disruption after March 29, also known as “Brexit day.”

Analysts insist that the only barrier holding the pound back from a breach of the $1.32 level, around where it traded over the summer before investors started to reckon with the fact that negotiations over the final Brexit treaty might prove impossible.

“If the UK and the EU can reach an agreement…[the pound] will rally towards $1.32 before long,” said Qi Gao, foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank.

Reports of the official denial helped to validate commentary from one FX analyst who cautioned that investors should take the news with a grain of salt.

“This is not the ‘Hail Mary’or ‘Eureka’ moment just yet,” said Jordan Rochester, FX strategist at Nomura.

“It’s good news at the margin, but not a solid sign that a deal is close…just a hint of confidence from Mr Raab that it will be.”

A deal would allow UK-based banks to maintain mostly unfettered access to Continental financial markets without needing to obtain a separate license, though it’s expected that UK banks would continue to be bound to EU banking rules after the Brexit deal is done. With the timeline for a deal pushed back to late November, we wonder if the Bank of England will once again lend its voice to the chorus of critics urging negotiators to ‘get on with it’ and strike a deal before the long-feared economic and market chaos arrives.

GBP

GBP/USD trimmed its advance to trade at $1.2867, up just 0.8% on the day, after earlier rising as much as 1.2% to 1.2920

 

 

end

Cable and British bonds are basically unimpressed as the Bank of England warns of Brexit. The bank England thinks that the economy will heat up in 2019

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Cable, Gilts Unimpressed As Bank Of England

Warns Of Brexit, Hot Economy In 2019

Gilt yields and cable briefly rose after The Bank of England held its main lending rate unchanged in a unanimous decision with the forward guidance also unchanged (“Any future increases in Bank Rate are likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.”) as policymakers weighed economic uncertainty sparked by Brexit against higher inflation expectations.

The main highlights in the statement has a slight hawkish bias, indicating that the MPC sees the output gap is closed and the economy will run hot from late 2019 amid growing wage and rising domestic costs; the BOE also discussed Brexit, saying that the economic outlook will rely significantly on the nature of the EU withdrawal. The MPC judges that the monetary response to Brexit, whatever form it takes, will not be automatic and could be in either direction.

Key highlights from their statement (via RanSquawk):

  • Unanimous on the base rate: MPC votes 9-0 to stand pat on rates at 0.75%
  • Unanimous on corporate bonds: MPC votes 9-0 to maintain the stock of corporate bonds at GBP 10bln
  • Unanimous on APF: MPC votes 9-0 to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases at GBP 435bln
  • Growth: Staff forecast GDP growth to have been around 0.6% in Q3 which is 0.2pp higher than forecast in the August QIR but growth is expected to fall back to 0.3% in Q4
  • Inflation: CPI inflation is forecast to remain above target for most of the forecast period before reaching 2% by the end of the third year
  • Brexit: The economic outlook will rely significantly on the nature of the EU withdrawal. The MPC judges that the monetary response to Brexit, whatever form it takes, will not be automatic and could be in either direction (same assumption as prior)
  • Rates: Future increases in the bank rate are likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent
  • Wages: Regular pay growth has been stronger than expected, rising to over 3%.
  • Investment: Business investment has been more subdued than previously anticipated as the effect of Brexit uncertainty has intensified
  • Labour Market: Remains tight
  • Trade: Trade restrictions have increased and there is a risk of a further escalation

Below is a summary of the MPC’s key judgments:

And the key forecasts:

  • GDP Growth: 2018 Q4: 1.5% (Prev. 1.5%), 2019 Q4: 1.7% (Prev. 1.8%), 2020 Q4: 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%), 2021 Q4: 1.7%
  • CPI Inflation: 2018 Q4: 2.5% (Prev. 2.3%), 2019 Q4: 2.1% (Prev. 2.2%), 2020 Q4: 2.1% (Prev. 2.0%), 2021 Q4: 2.0%
  • Unemployment Rate: 2018 Q4: 3.9% (Prev. 3.9%), 2019 Q4: 3.9% (Prev. 3.9%), 2020 Q4 3.9% (Prev. 3.9%), 2021 Q4: 3.9%
  • Average Weekly Earnings: 2018: 2.75% (Prev. 2.5%), 2019: 3.25% (Prev. 3.25%), 2020: 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%), 2021: 3.75%

With no surprises, markets have shrugged it all off, with gilt yield briefly popped then fading back:

And cable largely unchanged too, and trading near session highs on last night’s Times’ story which has since been denied twice:

end

 

.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA

Russia warns that it will act if either the Ukraine or Georgia joins NATO

(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)

Russia Vows “It Will Act” If Ukraine or Georgia

Join NATO

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Russia has vowed that they “will act” should Ukraine or Georgia join NATO. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu voiced his concern over what he described as the “militarization of the European continent,” by promising action instead of empty rhetoric.

This statement by Shoigu appears to be a sign of the country’s unease in the wake of President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out the United States out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). Speaking during a meeting with Greek Defense Minister Panos Kammenos, Shoigu said:

We are following with alarm NATO’s policy aimed at the active militarization of the European continent. We see efforts being made to involve more and more NATO member countries, I mean the Balkans first of all.”

According to the Express UK, Andrei Kelin, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s European cooperation department, made his remarks during an expert discussion NATO’s Future and Russia’s Interests on the platform of the discussion club Valdai.

“We will have to create a defense belt near Sochi,” said Kelin.

 “We will have to spend colossal resources on preventing likely actions by a hypothetical enemy, this is inevitable.”

Kelin also cautioned Ukraine against joining NATO saying that action would have equally serious military and economic repercussions for his country.

“The length of our common border is enormous.  It is utterly unequipped, so we will have to build defense lines there and to shift the emphasis of our defense structures towards the south.”

Kelin did concede, however, that it was unlikely either nation would join NATO.

“But if our western partners proceed along the road of building up confrontation, this may happen, of course, and we will have to make fundamental preparations,” Kelin added.

Russia launched a large-scale land, air and sea invasion in 2008, accusing Georgia of aggression against Russian separatists in the South Ossetia region.

Since this conflict, Vladimir Putin’s regime has occupied both South Ossetia and neighbouring Abkhazia.

In 2014, Russian forces annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea, rapidly incorporating it into the Russian Federation.

Meanwhile the Kremlin today said Russian President Vladimir Putin was keen to discuss US plans to exit the INF treaty with Donald Trump when the two meet in Paris on November 11. -Exxpress UK

Russia has also been ramping up their military might and divesting from the U.S. dollar among rising tensions with Washington.

 

END

CYPRUS/TURKEY/GREECE/ISRAEL

As we have outline to you on many occasions, the conflict with the huge gas discovery off the Israeli-Cyprus coast is intensifying.  Turkey does not recognize Nicosia and they are intent on interceding in the production/discovery of natural gas.

a must read

(courtesy GEFIRA)

 

 

Turkey, Greece, Cyprus Conflict Deepens As New

Flashpoint In The Med Intensifies

Via GEFIRA,

 

The conflict over gas in the eastern Mediterranean is intensifying. In February, the first case of intervention by the Turkish navy took place in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Cyprus. Last month, two more flashpoints have appeared.

The dispute concerns gas blocks, i.e. areas into which waters around Cyprus have been divided. Turkey does not recognize the government in Nicosia or its agreements regarding EEZ. Ankara thinks that the right to extract gas should also be exercised by the Turkish Cypriots and also by Turkey in the case of Blocks 4, 5, 6, and 7, through which – according to Ankara – passes the Turkish maritime border (the map below).

At the beginning of October, Cyprus put gas extraction in the disputed Block 7 out to tender, which the Gefira Team has informed about. In response to this, in the middle of the same month, Turkey sent an exploration ship assisted by four naval vessels and began exploration in the area of 44 thousand km2, including blocks 4 and 5.

Nicosia and Athens consider it a violation of the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cyprus. On October 18, another event took place.

Greece reported that the Turkish ship had entered the Greek continental shelf, which provoke Athens to send the frigate Nikiforos to drive the Turks out.

[Location of the Turkish research ship Barbaros Hayreddin Pasa in October 2018 in the disputed area in the Eastern Mediterranean. Source: Marine Traffic]

In the vicinity of the disputed waters, exploration is carried out by, among others, Italian Eni, French Total and American ExxonMobil. When the Turkish Navy stopped an Eni research vessel in the EEZ of Cyprus in February, Rome decided to send a frigate. A violation of the interests of any of these companies will translate into the military involvement of other states, which may entail a conflict on a global scale.

Turkish exploration in the disputed area is planned to last until 1 February. Ankara, promising to take steps to secure its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, accused Greece of carrying out an arbitrary demarcation of sea borders, which triggered the whole chain of events.

We expect that the conflict over gas around Cyprus will intensify because Turkey needs its own energy resources to reduce the trade deficit caused by the increase in the costs of the gas and oil imports.

END

SAUDI ARABIA/TURKEY

This is rather gruesome:  did the Saudi hitmen dissolve Khashoggi’s body in acid and throwing it down a well on their property at the embassy?

(courtesy zerohedge)

Did The Saudi Hit Squad Dissolve Jamal

Khashoggi’s Body In Acid?

Friday will mark one month since Jamal Khashoggi waltzed into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, planning to pick up paperwork that would allow him to legally marry his Turkish girlfriend, and was never heard from or seen again. And despite repeated demands from Turkish authorities that the Saudi government reveal the location of Khashoggi’s remains, or at least identify the “local collaborator” who is said to have disposed of the body, the kingdom has repeatedly refused.

The Saudi prosecutor’s inexplicable refusal to help with the recovery of Khashoggi’s remains has apparently led the Turks to conclude that one of the particularly gruesome rumors about the circumstances of Khashoggi’s demise just might have been true. That is, after he was strangled and dismembered inside the consulate, Khashoggi’s remains were dissolved in a vat of acid, then dumped either in a well on the property of the consul general, or somewhere on the consulate grounds, according to Washington Post.

Khashoggi

Initially, Turkish investigators focused their search for Khashoggi’s body on two wooded areas outside of Istanbul, partly inspired by surveillance footage that Turkish authorities said showed Saudi diplomatic vehicles apparently scouting Belgrad Forest the night before the journalist was killed.

Last week, investigators suspended the search, focusing instead on the consulate’s grounds and the consul general’s residence. The search focused in particular on a well on consular property, where The Turks believe the assailants may have disposed of Khashoggi’s dissolved remains. According to WaPo, biological evidence uncovered during the search of the consul’s residence suggests that Khashoggi’s remains were disposed of near where he was dismembered. 

A senior Turkish official said in an interview that Turkish authorities are pursuing a theory that Khashoggi’s dismembered body was destroyed in acid on the grounds of the Saudi Consulate or at the nearby residence of the Saudi consul general. Biological evidence discovered in the consulate garden supports the theory that Khashoggi’s body was disposed of close to where he was killed and dismembered, the official said.

“Khashoggi’s body was not in need of burying,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive investigation.

Turkish prosecutor Irfan Fidan issued a public statement on Wednesday detailing the killing in the most explicitly overt terms since the investigation began. The statement followed the departure of Saudi prosecutor Saud al-Mojeb, whom the Turks have accused of stymieing the probe. As US lawmakers’ calls to suspend a US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement grow louder, any confirmation that Khashoggi’s body was, in fact ,dissolved in acid could reignite the international outcry over the brutal extradition kingdom, and renew calls that members of the Saudi leadership, particularly Crown Prince Mohammad, be made to face consequences for what appears to have been an act of unmitigated brutality.

end
Washington Post claims that MbS tells Kushner that Khashoggi was a “dangerous islamist’
(courtesy zerohedge)

WaPo Claims MbS Told Kushner That Khashoggi

Was A “Dangerous Islamist”

After publicly decrying the journalist’s death as a “terrible mistake” and a “terrible tragedy,” The Washington Post is reporting that – according to people familiar with the discussion – that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman described slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi as a dangerous Islamist days after his disappearance in a phone call with President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and national security adviser John Bolton.

WaPo reports that during the call, which occurred before the kingdom publicly acknowledged killing Khashoggi, the crown prince urged Kushner and Bolton to preserve the U.S.-Saudi alliance and said the journalist was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, a group long opposed by Bolton and other senior Trump officials.

However, the crown prince said during a panel discussion last week.

“The incident that happened is very painful, for all Saudis… The incident is not justifiable.”

Additionally, the Saudi ambassador to US, Khalid bin Salman, described Khashoggi last month as a “friend” who dedicated “a great portion of his life to serve his country.”

In a statement released to The Washington Post, Khashoggi’s family called the characterization of the columnist as dangerous Islamist inaccurate.

“Jamal Khashoggi was not a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. He denied such claims repeatedly over the past several years,” the family said.

“Jamal Khashoggi was not a dangerous person in any way possible. To claim otherwise would be ridiculous.”

Finally, and unsurprisngly, a Saudi official on Wednesday denied that the crown prince made the allegations, saying “routine calls do exist from time to time” with the young leader and top U.S. officials, but “no such commentary was conveyed.”

Just as the dust is starting to settle (at least in the media’s goldfish-like news cycles), Turkey’s statements on acid-dissolving Khashoggi’s body and this reported ‘bombshell’ will likely push the US-Saudi relationship back to the front pages. The timing on the leak makes one wonder whether it is designed to put pressure on Trump to act against the Saudis, and/or whether this implied more pressure on the Saudis to spread the cash and payoff a few more raised voices to get back to the normal despotic regime they are used to.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Seems that the Chinese have ditched Vancouver and instead has sought out Singapore to purchase homes.  Singapore home prices rise 13% while Vancouver prices drop 11%

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

Luxury Home Prices In Singapore Soar 13% As Vancouver Prices Crash 11%

Singapore has now overtaken Hong Kong as the top city for luxury home price gains in Q3.

Luxury home prices in Singapore were up 13% in the third quarter from the year prior, according to Knight Frank LLP’s Prime Global Cities Index. The rising prices were partly the result of limited supply of higher end properties.

Hong Kong instead fell to 14th place, with just a 5.5% year-over-year gain during the third quarter.

And the rise in Singapore does little to offer a picture of what the luxury property market looks like globally. Worldwide, luxury properties rose by just 2.7% on average across the 43 cities that make up the index – this is the weakest performance in annual terms in almost 6 years.

Cities like Edinburgh and Madrid found themselves in the top five, while London wound up moving into negative territory, watching prices fall 2.9% as a result of the continuing uncertainty around Brexit. Cities like Paris and Berlin posted steady gains of 5.6% and 5.4%, respectively.

Also among the decliners was Dubai, where prices fell 3.8% resulting in the middle eastern city being the fifth worst on the list. Stockholm, Istanbul and Taipei all registered 6.3% year-over-year declines, tying them all for second worst place.

Finally, pulling up the rear is Vancouver, where we have spent time documenting a collapsing real estate bubble over the last couple of months. Vancouver saw its luxury home prices down 11% as more affluent pockets of the city, like West Vancouver, saw a pronounced slowdown in sales.

At the beginning of October, we asked readers what happens when prices rise so high that a chasm forms between bids and asks in Vancouver? The market grinds to a halt.

That’s what happened in September, when according to the Real Estate Board of Vancouver (REBGV), residential property sales tumbled by 17.3% from August 2018, and a whopping 43.5% from one year ago. In fact, a total of only 1,595 transactions took place as both buyers and sellers continue to sit on their hands amid confusion whether the recent torrid price gains will continue or whether the housing bubble has burst.

Sales of detached properties in July was just 508, a decrease of 40.4% from the 852 recorded in September 2017, and the 812 apartments sold was a 44% drop compared to the 1,451 sales in September 2017.

And no, it’s not seasonal: last month’s sales were a whopping 36.1% below the 10-year September sales average.

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

INDIA/RUSSIA

We highlighted this to you yesterday:  India has called Trump’s bluff and will pay for Russian S 400 in roubles

(courtesy zerohedge)

India Calls Trump’s Bluff, Will Pay For Russian S-

400s In Rubles

After facing down US threats of possible economic sanctions should it follow through with its plans to purchase nearly $5.4 billion in Russian S-400 anti-ballistic missile systems, India has successfully called the US’s bluff.  After India stood its ground and insisted on moving ahead with the arms deal, the White House said it would consider giving India a waiver on the deal, according to RT.

For anybody who has followed our coverage of the growing mutiny against the dominant dollar-based trade paradigm – a rebellion that’s being led by Russia and China – the US’s reasons for granting the concession should be self-evident. After the US threatened to block the deal via SWIFT, the supposedly “politically independent” system for international payments over which the US Treasury exercises de facto veto power via economic sanctions, Russia and India found a viable workaround: Carry out the transaction in rubles and rupees.

India

As a quick refresher, here’s a rundown of our recent posts about Russia’s efforts to bypass SWIFT as US economic sanctions, first imposed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, threaten to cut off the country’s largest banks from the global financial system. As the US prepares to reimpose sanctions on Iran, even purported US allies like the European Union are beginning to contemplate alternatives to circumvent the Treasury’s authority.

* * *

New Delhi and Moscow officially agreed on the deal during a summit earlier this month, where they also pledged to work toward closer military and economic ties, much to the chagrin of the US. In addition to the S-400s, India is also reportedly planning to buy Russian T-14 Armata tanks and guided-missile frigates, and could even pursue the development of next-generation submarines and fighter jets in cooperation with Moscow.

By deciding to tolerate the deal, the US is, in effect, acknowledging that Russian President Vladimir Putin had a point when he said earlier this month that the US’s willingness to impose economic sanctions is a “colossal strategic mistake.” 

That’s because sanctions, as Putin argued, will only further incentivize countries to pursue an alternative to the dollar-based trade system. And as China and Russia increasingly conduct more of their bilateral trade in yuan and rubles, while also pursuing alternatives to paying for oil in dollars, the US may finally be starting to realize that this small mutiny represents a real threat to the dollar’s global hegemony.

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1403 UP .0089 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.79  DOWN 0.068  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2928 UP   0.01596  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3086  DOWN .0073 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 89 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1403; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 2.94 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 436.31 POINTS OR 1.75% 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.21% /EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 232.81 POINTS OR 1.06%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  MIXED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 436.31 POINTS OR 1.75% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.94 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.21%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 232.81 POINTS OR 1.06%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1230.50.

silver:$14.58

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.17% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.41 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 96.43 DOWN 70  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \4: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.89% UP 2    in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12%  DOWN 1  BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.57% UP 2 IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.38 DOWN 6   POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 181 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.40%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1394 UP .0080 or 80 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.62 DOWN .235 OR 24 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2972 UP .0205( POUND UP 205 BASIS POINTS)

 

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This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 80 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1394

The Yen ROSE to 112.62 for a GAIN of 23 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 205 basis points, trading at 1.2972/

The Canadian dollar GAINED 63 basis points to 1.3095

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9234-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9217(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.5220

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.12%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 0 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.14 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.38 UP 0 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.39 DOWN 74 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 13.44 POINTS OR 0.19%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 21.03 POINTS  OR 0.18%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 7,66 POINTS OR 0.15%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 38.00 POINTS OR 0.43%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP:  124.92 POINTS OR 0.71%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 63.45 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 72.81 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.69  THE CROSS LOWER BY .18 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 18 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.5220 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.40 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:63.51

 

BRENT:72.72

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.14%..

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.38%/..

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1408 ( UP 93 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.70 DOWN ,151 (YEN UP 15 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.30 DOWN 83 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2999 UP 233 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.5143

the Russian rouble:  65.74 UP 0.14 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 14 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3094 DOWN 64 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9234  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9140 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.40%

 

The Dow closed  UP 264.96 POINTS OR 1.06%

NASDAQ closed UP 128.16  points or 1.75% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.37  CLOSED down  1.87

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.558%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/BIG jump today

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Stocks Jump On Biggest Short-Squeeze Since

Brexit As Dollar Dumps

Bounce…

 

While stocks bounced, the headline of the day deserves to the PBOC – which drained liquidity for the 5th day in a row and finally engineered a snap squeeze higher in Yuan…

 

And the second biggest headline belongs to this – Today was the biggest short-squeeze since the June 2016 rebound from Brexit

 

China stocks roundtripped overnight giving back early session gains despite the one-way street in yuan…

 

European stocks bounced then faded also…

 

Positive tone from Trump (and China) on trade talks sparked the biggest short squeeze since June 2016 but headlines of China stealing tech IP took the shine off a little… Small Caps ripped (on the short-squeeze, up over 2%) as S&P and Dow jumped and then flatlined for most of the day…

Futures show US equity indices testing the stops at last Wednesday highs (before the plunge)…

 

We note that despite the mega squeeze, The Dow struggled to hold/break above yesterday’s highs until the closing ramp…

 

No big selling at the close today…in fact hardly any selling at all…

 

Before we move on – let’s note that we have seen these sudden short-squeezes before…

 

VIX tumbled back below 20 today…

 

And the term structure flattened to almost uninverted…

 

FANG Stocks bounced to one week highs…

 

AAPL rallied ahead of earnings…

 

Notably, bonds and stocks were bid from the cash open, decoupling yields from equity prices…

 

The short-end outperformed on the day…

 

And Breakevens collapsed today as oil plunged…

 

 

As Yuan surged, the Dollar tumbled to start the month…the biggest single-day drop for the dollar since March…

 

Bear in mind that we have seen this kind of Yuan squeeze before… a few times…

 

Cable also spiked – back above 1.30 on headlines about EU financial linkage progress – which were denied…

 

Cryptos rallied along with gold as the dollar dumped…

 

Silver soared and black gold was battered today…

 

Dollar weakness helped send gold higher, breaking above its 100DMA…and Silver back above its 50DMA…

 

Despite the spike in Yuan today, gold remains well managed…

 

While gold gained, crude was clubbed like a baby seal to a $63 handle… nearing a bear market down around 18% from the highs…

 

Finally, of course it could just be a coincidence, but it looks like oil prices reversed as the price of barrel reached 5 oz of silver – the same level they plunged at in 2014…

 

END

 

market trading

 

market data/

Even though the results are a bit disappointing, USA productivity reported its best back to back quarters in over 3 years despite the slowing

(courtesy zerohedge)

Despite Slowing, US Productivity Growth Best Back-To-Back

Quarters Since 2015

US Productivity growth in Q3 disappointed expectations, slowing from an upwardly revised 3.0% QoQ in Q2 to 2.2% in Q3…

Productivity gains in the U.S. posted the best back-to-back quarters since 2015.

Compared with a year earlier, productivity rose 1.3 percent, the same pace as in the second quarter and equal to the average annual rate from 2007 to 2017.

That’s well below the 3 percent pace of the late 1990s.

As unit labor costs rose more than expected (up 1.2% QoQ) in Q3.

Elsewhere in the productivity report, inflation-adjusted hourly earnings rose at a 1.4 percent annualized pace after a 0.3 percent increase, while hours worked rose 1.8 percent. Output advanced at a 4.1 percent rate, following 5 percent.

Among manufacturers, productivity rose at a 0.5 percent pace after a 1.2 percent rate in the prior quarter.That compares with an annual average gain of 0.7 percent from 2007 to 2017.

end

USA manufacturing slumps and the key prices component jumps. Also on the negative side is export orders which slowed dramatically as financial conditions tightened.

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Manufacturing Slumps As Prices Jump, Export Orders Dump, Financial Conditions Tighten

Despite drastically tightening financial conditions, ‘soft’ survey data on US Manufacturing was expected to rise in October, but – as always – it was mixed:

  • Markit’s Manufacturing PMI printed higher at 55.7 (marginally higher than September’s 55.6 but below the October flash print of 55.9)
  • ISM Manufacturing Printed dramatically lower at 57.7 (well below expectations of 59.0 and down from September’s 59.8)

It appears ISM is catching down to reality as ‘hard’ economic data continues to creep lower and disappoint:

ISM Manufacturing is at its weakest since April 2018…

ISM’s unadjusted new orders tumbled to their weakest since Nov 2016…

While Markit’s Prices Paid index is soaring, ISM’s has been falling recently but prices bounced in October as Export Orders collapsed to weakest since Nov 2016…

So while ISM is a terribly dismal print, and respondents are downbeat – due to tariffs:

Tariffs are causing inflation: increased costs of imports, increased cost of freight and increased domestic costs from suppliers who import.” (Chemical Products)

“While order intake remains steady, the pace has slowed since the first half the year. Instead of growing, the backlog is declining. We were processing orders at a high level; now they are at the point of status quo from late 2017. We are not concerned yet, but there is certainly trepidation about the future.” (Machinery)

NAFTA 2.0/USMCA does nothing to help our company, as it does not address Section 232 tariffs.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)

Mounting pressure due to pending tariffs. Bracing for delays in material from China — a rush of orders trying to race tariff implementation is flooding shipping and customs.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

“Orders and shipments are strong right now. Backlog for Q4 and next year are way down.”

Markit is ebullient…

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“The manufacturing sector saw a strong start to the closing quarter of 2018, with new order inflows rising sharply and business optimism spiking higher in an encouraging sign that firms expect the good times to continue into 2019.

“The increasingly bullish mood was also reflected in one of the largest monthly increases in factory payroll numbers seen over the past seven years as firms grew capacity to meet rising workloads.

“The key area of concern remained tariffs, which were widely reported to have contributed to another month of stalled export sales and a steep rise in prices for many inputs. Average input prices rose at one of the sharpest rates seen over the past six years in October.

“In a clear sign that inflationary pressures are continuing to build, strong customer demand meant firms were often able to push cost increases through to selling prices.

Average prices charged for goods leaving the factory gate consequently jumped to one of the greatest extents seen since mid-2011.”

We suspect ISM is right on this one!!

When does the soft survey data catch down to tightening financial conditions?

Or the ‘hard’ economic data?

USA economic/general stories
A good one from Michael Snyder:  A huge 62% of all USA jobs do not pay enough to support a middle class life.
( Michael Snyder)

62% Of All US Jobs Don’t Pay Enough To Support A Middle-Class Life

Authored by Michael Snyder via The American Dream blog,

We just got more evidence that the middle class in America is rapidly disappearing...

According to a shocking new study that was just released, 62 percent of all jobs in the United States do not pay enough to support a middle class life.  That means that “the American Dream” is truly out of reach for most of the country at this point.  Today, Americans are working harder than ever but the cost of living continues to rise much faster than our paychecks are increasing.  Earlier this month, I went and looked at the latest numbers from the Social Security Administration, and I discovered that 50 percent of all American workers make less than $30,533 a year.  But that is just above poverty level.  In fact, the federal poverty level for a family of five is currently $29,420.  Most families are just barely scraping by from month to month, and most U.S. workers are just one major setback away from falling out of the middle class.

It wasn’t always this way.  At one time, America had the strongest and most vibrant middle class in the history of the world.  But now this latest study has discovered that “it’s only 38 percent of people who get the middle class life or better”

When wages are weighed against the cost of living in the largest 204 metropolitan regions across the nation, 62 percent of jobs don’t pay enough for a dual-income household with children to meet the definition of ‘middle class,’ according to a new ‘Opportunity Index‘ developed by Third Way, a Washington D.C.-based think tank.

‘We were shocked to find out it’s only 38 percent of people who get the middle class life or better,’ said Ryan Bhandari, a policy advisor for Third Way, in an interview with DailyMail.com.

It is no wonder why so many people are shopping at Wal-Mart and the Dollar Tree these days.

For many Americans, those are the literally the only places they can afford to shop.

When I was growing up, it seemed like literally everyone else around me was “middle class”, but now those days are long gone.  Here is a breakdown of some more of the numbers from this latest study

  • 30 percent of jobs are “hardship jobs,” meaning they don’t allow a single adult to make ends meet.
  • 32 percent are “living wage” jobs, enough to get by but not to take vacations, save for retirement or live in a moderately priced home.
  • 23 percent are middle-class jobs, allowing for dining out, modest vacations and putting some money away for retirement.
  • 15 percent are “professional jobs,” paving the way for a more comfortable life that includes more elaborate vacations and entertainment and a more expensive home.

It sure must be nice to be in that top 15 percent.

And the definition of a “middle class income” changes based on where you live.  As the study noted, it is much cheaper to live a middle class lifestyle in the middle of the country than it is to do so on the west coast.  The following comes from the Daily Mail

For example, a worker in San Francisco – one of the most expensive housing markets in the country – must make a minimum of $82,142 to achieve a middle class lifestyle.

By comparison, workers in Cedar Rapids, Iowa can achieve middle class status in a job paying $40,046 or more per year.

So many of us have run ourselves ragged doing the things that we were “supposed” to do, and we assumed that a middle class life would be the reward at the end of the trail.

Unfortunately, that reward has never materialized for millions of hard working Americans.  USA Today profiled one of those deeply frustrated workers in a recent article…

Esther Akutekha, who lives in Brooklyn, New York, has a good job as a public relations specialist that pays more than $50,000 a year.

But because of the $1,440 a month rent on her studio apartment in the Prospect-Lefferts Gardens neighborhood, she never takes vacations, dines out just once a month and scrapes together dinner leftovers for lunch the next day.

Can you identify with Esther?

I sure can.

It can be soul crushing to work as hard as you can only to realize that your goals are now farther away than ever.  At this point, Esther is not even sure that she will ever be able to afford to have children

“I’m frustrated with the fact that I’m not going to be able to save anything because my rent is so high,” says Akutekha, who says she’s 30ish. “I don’t even know if I can afford” to have children.

We have been told that the economy has been “booming” in recent years, but the truth is that it has only been booming for people at the very top of the pyramid.

For most Americans it is as if the last recession never ended, and things just seem to keep getting worse

“There’s an opportunity crisis in the country,” says Jim Kessler, vice president of policy for Third Way and editor of the report. “It explains some of the economic uneasiness and, frankly, the political uneasiness” even amid the most robust U.S. economy and labor market since before the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009. But is the economy robust? Or are we being fed a line by the mainstream media? The middle class is not thriving, and increased regulations and higher taxes make it difficult for people to branch out on their own and create their own business.

We definitely need to make it much, much easier for people to start small businesses, and this is something that I have written about extensively.  Small business creation has traditionally been one of the primary vehicles for upward mobility in our nation, but right now the rate of small business creation is hovering near all-time lows.  We desperately need to get that turned around if we ever want to have any hope of restoring vitality to our middle class.

If we continue on the path that we are on, we are going to continue to get the same results.  Tonight, more than half a million Americans are homeless, and the ranks of the poor are growing with each passing day.

America needs a strong middle class, but currently our middle class is disintegrating at a startling pace.

If we are not able to reverse this trend, what is the future going to look like for our society?

END
The red hot San Diego house market collapses with its lowest level in 11 years
(courtesy zerohedge)

San Diego Home Sales Collapse To Lowest Level In 11 Years 

A combination of rapid mortgage rate increases and decreased affordability, San Diego County home sales collapsed 17.5% to the lowest level in 11 years last month, in the first meaningful sign that one of the country’s hottest real estate markets could be at a turning point, real estate tracker CoreLogic reported Tuesday.

In September, 2,942 homes were sold in the county, down from 3,568 sales last year. This was the lowest number of sales for the month since the start of the financial crisis when 2,152 sold in September 2007.

CoreLogic said median home prices dropped in the region to $575,000, the first decline since January, after hitting a record high of $583,000 in August.

Some experts blamed the slowdown on rising mortgage rates, which have drastically increased the per month debt servicing payments for potential new homebuyers.

“The double whammy of higher prices and rising mortgage rates has priced out some would-be buyers and prompted others to take a wait-and-see stance,” said Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst, in the release. “There was one caveat to last month’s sharp annual sales decline — this September had one less business day for recording transactions. Adjusting for that, the year-over-year decline would be about 13 percent, still the largest in four years.”

On a monthly basis, sales declined 22% in September compared with August. Cyclically, sales tend to drop 10% from August to September, but this time, it seems that industry is experiencing late cycle stress.

The report also said sales of newly built homes are suffering more than sales of existing homes because homebuilder production remains below the historical mean. New home constructions come at a premium. Sales of newly built homes were 47% below the September average dating back to 1988, while sales of existing homes were 22% below their long-term average.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller San Diego Home Price NSA Index (data via Reuters Eikon) shows a potential double top with 2005 high. Lifetime high occurred in July 2018 of 259.69, with the index now fading into the Fall period.

Additional S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller San Diego Home Price data

“Price growth is moderating amid slower sales and more listings in many markets,” LePage said. “This is welcome news for potential homebuyers, but many still face a daunting hurdle – the monthly mortgage payment, which has been pushed up sharply by rising mortgage rates.”

Last month, Bank of America Called It: “The Peak In Home Sales Has Been Reached; Housing No Longer A Tailwind.” It seems that the San Diego real estate market woes are more evidence that storm clouds are gathering over the broader U.S real estate market.

END

Do not pay much attention to what Trump says.  I doubt very much if Xi will relent. Trump is just anxious to see the stock market higher as they enter into the elections

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Jump After Trump Says He Spoke To President Xi “On Trade”, Discussions “Moving Along Nicely”

Moments after stocks stumbled briefly in the red after the latest disappointing, and rather stagflationary Manufacturing ISM print, the S&P spiked higher following a Trump tweet in which the president said he just had a “very good” conversation with Chinese’ president Xi, in which the emphasis was on trade and added that “discussions are moving along nicely.”

Of course, with China keeping radio silence on the topic of trade talks, it is likely that Trump is simply posturing ahead of the mid-term election next week; alternatively he may simply be building up hope for something positive out of the G-20 meeting.

The optimistic tweet reversed much of the early morning pessimism, which had nearly brought the Dow to the unchanged line, and sent the Dow Jones to session highs, up as much as 150 points, as sentiment once again shifts on trade, this time with markets now expecting a favorable outcome from the G-20 meeting between the two presidents.

The Chinese Yuan also spiked to session highs following Trump’s tweet:

As Bloomberg notes, “alongside the Brexit deadline and mid-term elections and November could be a watershed moment for deciding where the market goes from here.”

* * *

Ironically, the news comes at the very same time that AG Jeff Sessions is said to announce a new initiative in response to China’s economic espionage, according to a U.S. official. The Initiative will be led by agency’s National Security Division Head John Demers and will increase the use of DOJ tools to counter China’s activities.

According to Bloomberg, Sessions is ordering the FBI and NSD to step up enforcement, and DOJ will select five U.S. attorneys to be part of the initiative. The announcement will be coupled with unsealing today of a criminal case by the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of California that involves a Chinese co. that stole trade secrets from a U.S. company.

However, as shown above, stocks are ignoring the DOJ news and focusing solely on Trump’s tweet as the market’s bipolar nature once again emerges to the surface.

 

 end
Mish reports on the proposal by the Fed for looser rules for large USA banks. This supposedly will provide some stimulus but not much
(Mish Shedlock)

Just-In-Time Stimulus: Fed Proposes Looser Rules For Large U.S. Banks

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The Fed’s proposal marks one of the most significant rollbacks of bank regulations since Trump took office…

The Wall Street Journal reports Fed Proposes Looser Rules for Large U.S. Banks

The Federal Reserve announced one of the most significant rollbacks of bank rules since President Trump took office with a proposal for looser capital and liquidity requirements for large U.S. lenders.

The changes would affect large U.S. lenders including U.S. Bancorp , Capital One Financial Corp. , and more than a dozen others. The largest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., wouldn’t see any significant rule changes, and some in the industry thought the proposal didn’t go far enough.

The draft proposal, approved by a 3-1 vote at a Wednesday meeting of the Fed’s governing board, would divide big banks into four categories based on their size and other risk factors. Regional lenders would be either entirely released from certain capital and liquidity requirements, or see those requirements reduced. They could also, in some cases, be subject to less frequent stress tests.

The proposals received a mixed reaction from banks. While some trade groups praised it, Greg Baer—president of the Bank Policy Institute, which represents large banks—said the proposal “does not do enough to tailor regulations.” He said, for instance, the plan doesn’t include changes to the Fed’s primary stress tests for big banks or to rules affecting foreign-owned banks with U.S. footprints. Fed officials said they were planning future proposal in those areas.

The plan divided the Fed, with Trump-appointed regulators and the Fed’s lone Obama-appointed official taking opposite sides. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the proposal would cut the regulatory burden “while maintaining the most stringent requirements for firms that pose the greatest risks.”

Fed governor Lael Brainard dissented. The Obama appointee said the policy changes “weaken the buffers that are core to the resilience of our system” and raise “the risk that American taxpayers again will be on the hook.”

Less Regulation Needed

My “Just in Time Stimulus” headline was meant as sarcasm, in case anyone missed it.

Yet, I am all in favor of less regulation. This is what we need.

  1. End the Fed
  2. End fractional reserve lending
  3. End the bailouts
  4. End deposit insurance
  5. Let the free market select what is money

Failure of Regulation

All five points above are failures of regulation, not failures to regulate.

If we are to enact my plan, by all means let banks lend however the hell they want. The free market will take care of what’s needed.

If banks make poor lending choices, they will fail. And that’s a good thing.

As it sits, looser lending standards coupled with the current credit bubble, housing bubble, equity bubbles, and a junk bond bubble is not the best thing to do right now.

Lowering capital standards is downright idiotic in light of the need for point number two above.

 

SWAMP STORIES

Gillum, in a race for the governor’s office in Florida (against Republican DeSantis), project vertitas catches a staffer in racist slur:  “it is not for them to know”

(zerohedge)

“Not For Them To Know” – Project Veritas Catches Andrew Gillum Campaign Staffer In Racist Slur

Authored by Mike Brest via The Daily Caller,

Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum is the latest to be stung by a Project Veritas undercover video. A video released on Thursday shows a campaign staffer they identify as Omar Smith using a racial slur and saying the candidate makes promises he knows he can’t keep.

“It’s a cracker state,” Smith stated.

“Get it? Ask anybody outside of here. You go Port St. Lucie, Orlando … man them crackers ain’t gonna let us do that sh*t dawg. Boy, you crazy?”

He went on, saying, “Gillum is a progressive. He is a part of the crazy, crazy, crazies.”

Then the undercover reporter asked how Gillum plans to pay for many of his campaign promises, Smith said he couldn’t.

“That’s not for them to know … That’s not for [the voters] to know. Remember our saying, modern-day fairy tales start with ‘once I am elected.’”

Gillum is in a very tight race against Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis. According to an Ipsos Public Affairs poll released on Tuesday, Gillum is up six points.

President Donald Trump has waded into this race calling Gillum “a thief,” because the Tallahassee mayor has reportedly been under investigation by the FBI.

Project Veritas has also recently released videos on midterm election candidates Phil Bredesen and Sen. Claire McCaskill. The Daily Caller was unable to independently verify the video.

end
Adam Schiff and Maxine Waters vow revenge and a ramped up Russiagate if the dems take the house
(courtesy zerohedge)

Adam Schiff, Maxine Waters Vow Revenge And Ramped-Up Russiagate If Dems Take House

Democratic lawmakers are licking their chops for the opportunity to settle a few scores and ensure that “Russiagate” follows President Trump into the 2020 election.

California Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters told a group of constituents last week what she would do after the November 6th election, which she said “may be the most important one that you’ve ever had to experience.”

The 80-year-old Rep. will chair the Financial Services Committee if Democrats regain control of the House.

“I will be the first African-American, the first woman to chair the powerful Financial Services Committee,” Waters said. “That’s all of Wall Street. That’s all the insurance companies, that’s all the banks. And so, of course, the CEOs of the banks now are saying, ‘What can we do to stop Maxine Waters because if she gets in she’s going to give us a bad time?'”

She then threatened Republicans:

“I have people who are homeless who have never gotten back into a home. What am I going to do to you? What I am going to do to you is fair. I’m going to do to you what you did to us,” Waters vowed.

never gotten back into a home. What am I going to do to you? What I am going to do to you is fair. I’m going to do to you what you did to us,” Waters vowed.

Adam Schiff and Russia, Russia, Russia

 

 

Another California Democrat, Adam Schiff, told CNN‘s Wolf Blitzer last week that if Democrats take back the house he will instigate investigations into Russian money laundering as well aas well as President Trump’s businesses

 

Schiff, the top Democrat on the intelligence panel, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on “The Situation Room” that Russian money laundering is one area he wants to probe tied to Russia’s 2016 election interference. Schiff said it’s one issue where he didn’t know whether special counsel Robert Mueller had been given authority to look into the matter. –CNN

“The question, though, that I don’t know whether Mueller has been able to answer — because I don’t know whether he’s been given the license to look into it — is were the Russians laundering money through the Trump Organization?” said Schiff.

“And that will be a very high priority to get an answer to. For the reason that if they were doing this, it’s not only a crime, but it’s something provable,” Schiff continued, suggesting that the Russians had found an issue they “could hold over the head” of Trump, and that they “that might be influencing US policy in a way that is against our national interest.”

Schiff added that while the “Republicans walked away from the investigation, the Democratic minority has continued” their investigative efforts, adding “And that work won’t stop when we take the majority.”

 

 

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

@AP: Trump says number of military troops deployed to US-Mexican border could go as high as 15,000.
@realDonaldTrump: So-called Birthright Citizenship, which costs our Country billions of dollars and is very unfair to our citizens, will be ended one way or the other. It is not covered by the 14th Amendment because of the words “subject to the jurisdiction thereof.” Many legal scholars agree…..
     Harry Reid was right in 1993, before he and the Democrats went insane and started with the Open Borders (which brings massive Crime) “stuff.” Don’t forget the nasty term Anchor Babies. I will keep our Country safe. This case will be settled by the United States Supreme Court!
     Paul Ryan should be focusing on holding the Majority rather than giving his opinions on Birthright Citizenship, something he knows nothing about! Our new Republican Majority will work on this, Closing the Immigration Loopholes and Securing our Border! [The retiring Ryan has been jabbing at Trump.]
@MikeTokes Replying to @realDonaldTrump: CORRECT. In Wong Kim Ark (1898) the Court ruled that a child born in the U.S. of legal aliens was entitled to “birthright citizenship” under the 14th Amendment. LEGAL aliens is the key word here.  Not children of illegal foreign citizens.
@RepMarkMeadows: Over several interviews, we’ve learned information suggesting the FBI secretly transcribed, and even taped, George Papadopoulos in 2016.  If these “tapes” do exist, the DOJ must make them available to Americans immediately. Their complete refusal to be transparent helps no one.
@GeorgePapa19: Hons: @RepMarkMeadows and @RepRatcliffe I am more than happy to deliver the $10,000 in cash I received, as part of what I believe was a sting operation to frame me in summer 2017to your committee to examine for marked bills. This is in the interest of me being fully transparent.
The entire “Russia collusion” investigation began because Joseph Mifsud (“the professor”) was a supposed Russian agent who told me that the Russians have Clinton’s emails. Now, Mifsud’s lawyer says he was working for Comey’s FBI to fabricate collusion and sabotage Trump. Truth!
Left-wing billionaire Tom Steyer is running a Facebook ad comparing President Donald Trump to former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.
Google Is Trying to Censor [GOP, of course] Marsha Blackburn Campaign Ads, Says Videos of Protestors Interrupting Her Moment of Silence Are ‘Shocking Content’ – In October 2017, Twitter blocked Blackburn’s Senate campaign announcement over concerns that the ad’s pro-life message might offend some viewers…Twitter eventually walked back the ban… https://trib.al/9PUsppd
Jon Stewart: Trump’s Winning War with Media by Using Their ‘Own Narcissism’ Against Them
… To focus on what he wants to talk about…
Oprah Winfrey steps away from ’60 Minutes’ as she hits the campaign trail for Georgia Democrat
[The MSM doesn’t even offer a flimsy pretense of being unbiased these days.]
A big reason for the political strife and vitriol in the USA: From 1933 until 1995, Democrats controlled the House except for two terms (1947-49 and 1953-55).  Since that time, Democrats have controlled the House only twice (2007-09 and 2009-11).  Obviously, this was due to widespread outrage over the housing collapse, Crisis and the Wall Street bailout. 
end
I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON FRIDAY IF ALL GOES WELL

Harvey

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