NOV 5/MARKETS SURGE ON LATEST RASMUSSEN POLL WHICH GIVES THE REPUBLICANS IN THE LEAD AND THEY CLAIM REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE BOTH HOUSES/GOLD DOWN $1.05 TO $1230.70.SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TO $14.65/QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES AT THE GOLD COMEX/BALTIC DRY INDEX FALTERS AGAIN SIGNALING A DROP IN GLOBAL TRADE/SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN BEGAN AT MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT AND ALREADY IRAN THREATENS TO SEIZE VESSELS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1230.70 DOWN  $1.05 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.65 DOWN 9 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1231.50

 

silver: $14.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT: 17 NOTICE(S) FOR 1700

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  185  for 18500 OZ  (0.5754 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

15,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 935 for 4,675,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6461: down  $20

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6460  down 24 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST  FELL BY  274 CONTRACTS FROM 211,565 DOWN TO  211,291 WITH FRIDAY’S 6 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  2167 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2167 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2167 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2167 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 10.875 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 6 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 6,610,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 

8686 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 8686 CONTRACTS) OR 43.43 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2895 CONTRACTS OR 14.475 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  43.43MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 6.14% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,473.16    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 274 WITH THE 6 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2167 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 1893 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2167 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 14  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THUS GOOD  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 6 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.74 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH  IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.505 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW  OVER 6 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.059 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 15,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT OVER 6 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY UNEXPECTED  SIZE OF 334 CONTRACTS UP TO 491,465 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A DROP IN PRICE OF $5.05).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4638 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 4638 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 491,465. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN GOOD RISE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4638 CONTRACTS:  274 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4638 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 3725 CONTRACTS OR 372,500 OZ = 11.596 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ FRIDAY TO THE TUNE OF $5.05.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 12715 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 26,319 CONTRACTS OR 2,631,900 OZ OR 81,86 TONNES (3 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8773 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 81.86 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 81.86/2550 x 100% TONNES =  3.21% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,291.83*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 274 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($5.05) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4638 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4638 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN VERY GOOD RISE OF 4,972 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4638 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 274 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 11.59 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $5.05 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

we had: 20 notice(s) filed upon for 2000 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY: / 

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   757.29 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 757.29 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 6  CENTS TODAY

 

ANOTHER BIG CHANGES AT THE SLV:

 

A WITHDRAWAL OF :  1.315 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY 274 CONTRACTS from 211,565 UP TO 211,291  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

2167 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4135 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 14 CONTRACTS TO THE 2167 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG  NET GAIN OF 2154 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 14,77 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW OVER 6 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A TINY DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 6 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 2167 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.04 POINTS OR 0.41% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 551.96 POINTS OR 2.02% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 334.67 OR 1.55%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.52%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9270 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 6298 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.92 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN AT 6.9270 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9209: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

i)Saturday:

Interesting:  Chinese senior leadership are preparing for an economic collision with the uSA in the upcoming Spring 2018

( zerohedge)

ii)Last night:

Chinese stocks fall considerably along with the yuan.  Chinese PMI which is their manufacturing and service sector tumble to almost 3 year lows

China is falling apart

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ITALY

Italy just went through a terrific storm which provided an unprecedented amount of rain and wind over the course of several days.  It caused massive damage but it seems that huge number of yachts have been destroyed.  The insurance industry will be a devastating bill to pay here

( zerohedge)

ii)EU/IRAN/USA/OTHER COUNTRIES

Interesting:  Mnuchin threatens the European based SWIFT system  which is vital for payments being secure between countries with sanctions if Iran is not cut off from this payment system.

( zerohedge)

iii)UK

Supposedly there has been a secret Brexit deal which involves keeping the current customs deal until a deal is finally settled.  The entire UK including Ireland will still be in on this format until separation is concluded…which may be never!!

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)SAUDI ARABIA/YEMEN/USA

So much for Saudi Arabia listening to the USA.  They answer Pompeo’s call for a Yemen ceasefire by ramping up their airstrikes

( zerohedge)

ii)Iran reacts to the sanctions and the threat of cutting off countries from the SWIFT system if they engage with them: hardline cleric threatens to seize tankers in the  Strait of Hormuz.

( zerohedge)

iii)The sanctions began at midnight last night:  Eight temporary waivers will be announce shortly
 zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)This gives you an idea as to what is going on with respect to global trade:  it is sinking!  Baltic dry index again falls badly

( G./zerohedge)

ii)We have been following this development for quite some time.  Now our good friends over in Turkey are blaming Greece, Israel and Egypt for the Khashoggi murder plot

( zerohedge)

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA

It seems that the Modi government is also having problems with Patel, chief honcho of the Central bank Of India.  The fallout from the largest shadow banking operation IL & FS is certainly having a toll on operations inside India

( Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investments Partners)

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i))The following is a must read as Chris Powell gives a terrific summary of gold/silver manipulation orchestrated by Government and the bullion banks
( Chris Powell/GATA)

ii)A total joke:  this ex central banker states that central banks are transparent in gold trading.  Who is she kidding( GATA/Isabel Kahn Strausse)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

 

ii)Market data

a)As promised, the USA must sell record debt this week and all future weeks as they will need at at least 1.8 trillion dollars worth of issuance.  Interest rates are now rising on the long term bond because of this.

( zerohedge)

b) A joke!! the USA economy slides or rebounds as two conflicting surveys signal opposite results.

( zero hedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Brandon Smith looks at 3 events which could change the face of America:
1. the Killing of Khashoggi and our relationship with the Saudis
2 the illegal immigration coming from the south
3. Trump’s war with the Fed,,
a must read….
( Brandon Smith/Alt-Market)

b)The mess an GE!!( Wolf Richter/WolfStreet)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Papadopoulos details how the Dems. entrapment scheme came to life with the use of undercover deep state agents

 

( zerohedge)

b)Miami polling stations tuns out of ballots as early voting soars

( zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 274 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 490,218 WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.05 IN FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4638 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  4638 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4638 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 4972 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4638 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A TINY 334 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3728 contracts OR 372,800 OZ OR 11.596 TONNES.

 

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 24 notices standing so we lost 3 contracts. WOW!!! we had 20 notices served upon yesterday so for the 3rd straight trading day, we gained 17 contracts or an additional 1700 oz of gold queue jumped.  Gold has now joined silver in the queue jumping game as physical gold and silver are scarce at the comex.  The dealers need this physical to put out fires elsewhere. Also longs have refused to morph into London forwards and this they refuse to accept a fiat bonus to do that transfer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 6930 contracts  to 351,027 contracts.  January saw a  RISE TO 678 FOR A GAIN OF 633 CONTRACTS.  February gained 3917 contracts to stand at 87,353 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 17 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 1700 OZ.

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 274 CONTRACTS FROM 211565 DOWN TO 211,291 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S TINY  OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A VERY GOOD SIZED 2167 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 2167 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2167.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 2154 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED  274 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2167 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   1893 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 399 notices  standing for a loss of 8 contacts.  We had 6 notices served upon yesterday so we lost a tiny 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz will not stand for delivery as these longs  morphed into London based forwards as well as  accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts. QUEUE JUMPING WILL RETURN SHORTLY IN THE COMEX ARENA AS THIS PHENOMENON  (IN SILVER) HAS BEEN THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR OVER 19 MONTHS.

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we lost 4273 contracts down to 152,756.  January saw a GAIN of 34 contracts UP to 1022 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 3537 contracts  up to 46,210.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000 OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 166,097 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  272,055  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 5-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 54,554.323  oz
hsbc
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

2001.04

Delaware

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
17 notice(s)
 1700 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
7 contracts
(700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
185 notices
18500 OZ
0.5754 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of HSBC: 54,554.323 oz
total customer withdrawals:  54,554.323 oz
we had 1 customer deposit
i) Into Delaware: 2001.04 oz
total customer deposits 2001.04 oz
we had 1  adjustment..
i) out of HSBC:  482.25 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of HSBC

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 17 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (185) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (24 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (17 x 100 oz per contract) equals 19,200 OZ OR 0.5972 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (185 x 100 oz)  + {24)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (17x 100 oz )which equals 19200 oz standing OR 0.5972 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE GAINED 7 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 700 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING GOLD JOIN SILVER IN QUEUE JUMPING AS PHYSICAL SEEMS TO BE SCARCE.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.2969 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.5972 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  138,146.468 oz or   4.2969 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,013,936.429 oz 259.26 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 5 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,457,208.237 oz
CNT
Malca

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,809,726.763
oz
CNT
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
3
CONTRACT(S)
15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
396 contracts
(1980,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 935 contracts

(4,675,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

lots of activity in the silver vaults today.

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.9 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.94% of all official comex silver. (150.9 million/290.5 million)

ii)Into  CNT:  1,213,082.07 oz

iii) Into Scotia: 596,644.690 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,809.726.763  oz

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

 

i) Out of CNT:  1,233,008.387  oz

 

ii) Out of Malca:  222,199.850 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,457,208.237  oz

 

we had 0- adjustments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  84.752 million

total dealer + customer silver:  290.050  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 3 contract(s) FOR 15,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 935 x 5,000 oz = 4,675,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (407) and the number of notices served upon today (3 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 932(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 399) -number of notices served upon today (3)x 5000 oz equals 6,655,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver. We lost 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 will not stand at the comex as these longs accepted a London based forwards as well as receiving the right for a fiat bonus. QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER TOOK A SHORT HIATUS AND WILL NO DOUBT RETURN IN EARNEST THIS COMING WEEK.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 70,293 CONTRACTS  … HUGE VOLUME

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 114,721 CONTRACTS….HUGE VOLUME

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 114,721 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 659 million OZ  OR 81.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -5.37% (NOV 5/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.00% to NAV (NOV 5/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -5.37%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.46/TRADING 11.86/DISCOUNT 4.83

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.29 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.06 TONNES

NOV 1/: 2 TRANSACTIONS:WITH GOLD UP $23.85,A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES OF GOLD TO PAY FOR FEES, INSURANCE AND STORAGE: INVENTORY AT THE GLD RESTS AT 754.06 TONNES THEN A DEPOSIT OF 6.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.82

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 5.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 757.29 tonnes

*IN LAST 491 TRADING DAYS: 177.87 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 391 TRADING DAYS: A NET 18.57 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.320 MILLION OZ/

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN  18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

 

 

NOV 5/2018:

 

Inventory 326.005 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY./

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.35/ and libor 6 month duration 2.83

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .58

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.61%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.11

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.50

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG

Big Short’s Eisman Is Shorting U.K. Banks on Brexit

Big Short’s Eisman Is Shorting U.K. Banks on Brexit

– Eisman says U.K. is one of the biggest risks globally
– He is betting against two UK banks in the lead up to Brexit
– Eisman may short 50 other UK firms if “Trotskyite” Corbyn becomes UK PM
– Eisman is famous for betting against the US housing market ahead of the 2008 subprime-mortgage crisis

by Business Insider UK

 

The hedge-fund manager famous for betting against the US housing market ahead of the 2008 crash is shorting a pair of British bank stocks in anticipation that the UK falls out of the European Union without securing a Brexit deal.

“I’m shorting two stocks in the UK,” he told a conference in Dubai over the weekend, as reported by Bloomberg. He wouldn’t name the companies.

He reportedly told the conference that while he expects the UK to secure a deal with Brussels, he then expects that deal to be rejected in the UK parliament, ultimately forcing Britain out of the bloc without a deal.

Bloomberg notes that Metro Bank, and CYBG, the parent company of Clydesdale Bank and Yorkshire Bank, are the two most shorted UK financial stocks.

Some 6.6% of Metro Bank’s stock is currently being shorted, data from Castellain Capital’s Short Interest Tracker showed on Monday morning.

Eisman said that while he is currently shorting just two UK stocks, that number could rise as high as 50 if Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn were to become prime minister, because he believes Corbyn’s policies would be detrimental to the UK economy.

“I’ve got a screen of about 50, and I might short all 50 if I think Jeremy Corbyn is going to be prime minister,” he said.

“Corbyn’s a Trotskyite. Now I know my Trotskyites well and I know you don’t want to be invested in the UK if a Trotskyite is prime minister,” he added.

Eisman was the main character in “The Big Short,” the nonfiction book by Michael Lewis about the 2008 subprime-mortgage bubble in the US. Steve Carell played Eisman in the 2015 film adaptation.

Since gaining notoriety beyond the financial sphere after the book’s publication, Eisman has been a vocal market commentator, and in the last couple of years in particular has warned frequently about the health of European banks, particularly those in Italy, and Germany’s biggest lender Deutsche Bank.

“Deutsche Bank is a problem bank,” he said in an interview in May.

A short seller makes money by borrowing a company’s shares and selling them, with the aim of buying them back at a lower price and returning them, pocketing the difference.

Full Business Insider article here

 

News and Commentary

 

Goldman Says the Return of Fear Is a Good Thing for Gold (Bloomberg.com)

Stocks Drop, Yuan Slides as Trade Optimism Dims: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)

Asian shares fall on trade, Fed rate hike fears, pound hits 2-week top (Reuters.com)

Gold prices hold steady amid easing dollar (Reuters.com)

Russia’s gold reserves smash Soviet-era (1941) record as part of de-dollarization drive (RT.com)

China’s new gold appetite (SCMP.com)

Families feel the pinch as cost of living rises to over €50,000 a year (IrishTimes.com)


Source: Bloomberg

The 60/40 portfolio allocation keeps burning investors, so why do they still use it? (MarketWatch.com)

Here’s what the bear market in home construction stocks is trying to tell us (MarketWatch.com)

The Heart of the Matter – S&P May Lose 2/3’s of Value – Hussman (HussManFunds.com)

Epsilon Theory: A False Sense of Stability (EpsilonTheory.com)

Gold Market Manipulation Update from New Orleans Investment Conference (Gata.org)

East trusts in physical gold while West prefers ‘mindless optimism’ (RT.com)

 

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

02 Nov: USD 1,235.50, GBP 948.00 & EUR 1,079.83 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 1,223.25, GBP 950.47 & EUR 1,075.85 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 1,217.70, GBP 955.77 & EUR 1,074.25 per ounce
30 Oct: USD 1,220.00, GBP 956.36 & EUR 1,074.33 per ounce
29 Oct: USD 1,230.75, GBP 958.88 & EUR 1,078.38 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 1,236.05, GBP 964.98 & EUR 1,087.23 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

02 Nov: USD 14.82, GBP 11.38 & EUR 12.95 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 14.45, GBP 11.19 & EUR 12.68 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 14.34, GBP 11.23 & EUR 12.64 per ounce
30 Oct: USD 14.43, GBP 11.32 & EUR 12.71 per ounce
29 Oct: USD 14.65, GBP 11.42 & EUR 12.86 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 14.69, GBP 11.48 & EUR 12.94 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– “Red October” Highlights Importance of Rebalancing Portfolios and Gold’s “Very Positive” Outlook
– Alarm Bells Ring and Gold Rises In October As Stocks and Property Fall Globally
– Gold Analysts At LBMA See 25% Return To $1,532/oz In 12 months
– Gold Improves Investment, Pension and Central Bank Portfolio’s Risk-Adjusted Returns
– Gold Gains Nearly 1% On Week As Global Stock Markets Fall Sharply
– Dublin Housing Boom Set To Bust?
– Palladium Surges To All Time Record High On Russian Supply Concerns
– Happy Birthday GoldCore
– “IMF Warning Highlights Gold’s Importance As A Diversification and Happy Birthday GoldCore”
– End Of The Financial World?

DAG Video Still Play V2

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
ii) GATA stories
The following is a must read as Chris Powell gives a terrific summary of gold/silver manipulation orchestrated by Government and the bullion banks
(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

Chris Powell at New Orleans conference: Gold market manipulation update, Nov. 2018

The slides for this presentation can be viewed here:

http://gata.org/files/GATA-NOLA-2018-PPT-PDF-11-1-2018.pdf

* * *

SLIDE 1 — TITLE

Remarks by Chris Powell
Secretary/Treasurer, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
New Orleans Investment Conference
Friday, November 2, 2018

Since we met at this conference last year much new evidence of manipulation of the gold market by central banks and their bullion bank agents has been compiled and disclosed by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.

For example, a month ago a major bullion bank, the Bank of Nova Scotia, admitted to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission that it had manipulated the gold and silver futures markets from June 2013 through June 2016.

SLIDE 2 — CFTC ANNOUNCEMENT

https://cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7818-18

http://www.gata.org/node/18531

Ironically, in September 2013 the CFTC had closed its long-running investigation of silver market manipulation, announcing that the commission could not find anything actionable. That was three months after the Bank of Nova Scotia now admits its market rigging began.

SLIDE 3 — REUTERS REPORT

In January the U.S. government charged three other banks and eight traders with “spoofing” the monetary metals futures markets. The banks paid $47 million in fines:

http://www.gata.org/node/18004

Also in January GATA published the price discounts given by CME Group, operator of the major futures exchanges in the United States, to governments and central banks for secretly trading ALL major futures contracts in the country — not just monetary metals futures, whose trading discounts are highlighted in the red box on the screen, but even agricultural futures:

SLIDE 4 — CME GROUP FUTURES TRADING RATE SCHEDULE

http://www.gata.org/node/17976

Have you ever seen mainstream financial news organizations report that governments and central banks get discounts for secretly trading all major futures contracts in the United States, even cattle futures?

CME Group’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission acknowledge that its clients include governments and central banks, but otherwise this surreptitious trading is a state secret preserved by our timid press:

http://www.gata.org/node/14385

http://www.gata.org/node/14411

In September the second-quarter report of the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency showed the notional value of foreign exchange and gold derivatives held by U.S. banks and savings associations had soared from about $4 trillion in 2001 to nearly $40 trillion this year:

SLIDE 5 — OCC DERIVATIVES CHART

http://gata.org/node/18484

Perhaps not coincidentally, the chart shows the value of the foreign exchange and gold derivatives and the derivatives for other precious metals jumps markedly in 2010 just before the seven-year smashing of monetary metals prices that began in 2011. The value of those derivatives increased steadily from 2010 through this year.

So who are these commercial banks and savings associations and what are their connections to the U.S. government?

Are they, for example, lots of community institutions like the famous Bailey Bros. Building & Loan of Bedford Falls, New York in the 1946 movie that romanticized locally based banking, “It’s a Wonderful Life”?

Or are they mainly primary dealers in U.S. government securities, banks that are formally agents of the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve?

After all, who besides the U.S. government and other governments might have the money to take on so much risk in the gold and currency markets and who besides governments has the interest in doing so?

Last month GATA reported that intervention in the gold market by the Bank for International Settlements, the gold broker for central banks worldwide, had declined substantially for two months:

SLIDE 6 — BIS STATEMENT OF ACCOUNT

http://www.gata.org/node/18561

Shown here is the BIS’ statement of account for September, with the gold and gold derivatives line item highlighted.

This two-month decline in gold derivatives trading by the BIS corresponded with a steadying of the gold price and then its substantial move up. That is, the more the BIS got out of the gold market, the higher the price went.

Why is the BIS trading gold derivatives and for whom? Last year GATA put that question to the BIS. The BIS cordially explained that … it doesn’t explain what it does in the gold market, nor for whom.

Other correlations involving the gold price in recent months also have implied interventions by governments and central banks.

Newsletter writer and fund manager Jim Rickards reported a few months ago that for the last two years the gold price seems to have been closely tied to the International Monetary Fund’s valuation of its central bank currency, the Special Drawing Right:

SLIDE 7 — CHART OF GOLD IN DOLLARS AND SDRs

https://news.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/as-the-currency-reset-begins-get-…

The top line on the chart tracks the gold price in U.S. dollars for the last two years. The bottom line on the chart tracks the gold price in Special Drawing Rights. The leveling and tightening of the gold price in SDRs in the bottom chart began when the IMF incorporated the Chinese yuan as a component of SDRs.

Others this year, particularly the Zero Hedge internet site, noticed a tight correlation that began in May between the gold price and the Chinese yuan. In this chart the upward trend signifies loss of value for both the yuan and gold. This correlation snapped apart last month, as the yuan continued to devalue but gold rose:

SLIDE 8 — CHART OF YUAN DEVALUED VS. GOLD

Of course some central bank and government connections were officially announced over the last year. Russia has continued to buy gold in substantial amounts every month. Even Western-oriented governments like those in Poland, Hungary, and India recently announced purchases for their gold reserves as the United States increasingly has been “weaponizing” the dollar to coerce the world in trade and foreign policy.

China doesn’t regularly announce its gold purchases anymore but almost certainly has continued accumulating.

An equally telling development may be Barrick Gold’s formally becoming a business partner with the Chinese government. In September Barrick CEO Mark Bristow announced that Barrick wants a “distinctive and preferred relationship” with China, and Barrick exchanged a huge block of shares of its stock for shares of a Chinese government-owned miner, Shandong Gold. Barrick is now partly owned by China:

SLIDE 9 — NASDAQ REPORT ON BARRICK AND SHANDONG

http://www.gata.org/node/18520

http://www.gata.org/node/18525

While mining entrepreneur Pierre Lassonde, founder of Franco-Nevada and a former chairman of the World Gold Council, says central banks don’t care about gold, his former organization keeps contradicting him. The gold council keeps holding annual seminars for central bankers about gold reserve management. As you can see on the screen, another seminar will be held this month in Singapore:

SLIDE 10 — WORLD GOLD COUNCIL PROGRAM ON GOLD RESERVE MANAGEMENT

https://www.gold.org/news-and-events/events/executive-programme-in-gold-…

Perhaps the most interesting item on the seminar’s agenda is “gold market operations and accounting for gold.”

So central banks are in the gold market after all, but what are they doing with their operations? They’re certainly not accounting much for them.

For the secret March 1999 report of the staff of the International Monetary Fund noted that central banks refuse to distinguish their gold loans and swaps from their gold in the vault because an honest accounting would compromise their secret interventions in the gold and currency markets:

SLIDE 11 — SECRET IMF MEMO

http://www.gata.org/node/12016

Of course only central bankers and other government officials are invited to attend the World Gold Council’s seminar in Singapore. The public and the markets aren’t supposed to know what central banks do in the gold market. The public and the markets aren’t supposed to know even what the World Gold Council is helping central banks and governments to do in the gold market.

Not even gold investors themselves are supposed to know what the World Gold Council is telling central bankers about gold.

Because control of the gold price is the prerequisite for control of the markets and control of all capital, labor, goods, and services in the world, the location and disposition of national gold reserves are secrets more sensitive than the location and disposition of nuclear weapons. For nuclear weapons can only destroy the world. By determining currency values and interest rates, gold can control the world.

But maybe the most important development in gold market manipulation over the last year is that it is increasingly being recognized and questioned at high levels, as indicated by the more frequent purchases by central banks.

Over the last year GATA has peppered central bank and government officials with questions they won’t answer. GATA hopes that mainstream news organizations, fund managers, and governments will take notice. The mainstream news organizations are as timid and useless as the monetary metals mining industry itself, but some fund managers and governments are watching and catching on.

In June GATA questioned the U.S. comptroller of the currency about the explosion in the use of a supposedly emergency mechanism called “exchange for physicals” to settle gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange. Suddenly the delivery of hundreds of tonnes of metal purportedly was being shifted off the exchange to somewhere else, presumably London.

But according to South African market analyst Nicholas Biezanek, those supposed deliveries were having no impact on gold inventories in London:

http://www.gata.org/node/18288

So where were those metal deliveries coming from and what were the financial risks for the investment banks that had sold the futures contracts — banks regulated by the comptroller of the currency?

In August the comptroller’s office replied to GATA dismissively and evasively, stating only that it has plenty of skilled professionals regulating the banks. The comptroller’s office did not address the point GATA had raised:

http://www.gata.org/node/18422

So increasingly the “exchange for physicals” mechanism seems to be cover for accounting fraud.

In July GATA wrote to the public relations department at JPMorganChase & Co. about the bank’s involvement in the monetary metals market. That involvement occasionally has been controversial in recent years. GATA’s letter read:

“In April 2012 Blythe Masters, then chief of the bank’s commodities desk, told CNBC that the bank had no position of its own in the monetary metals markets and was trading only for clients:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gc9Me4qFZYo

“Can you say if this remains the case and if the bank’s clients in trading the monetary metals markets include governments and central banks?”

MorganChase did not even acknowledge GATA’s inquiry. Of course MorganChase might have to acknowledge such an inquiry if it ever came from The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, or even a gold or silver mining company. Fortunately for MorganChase, the Journal and mining companies are not interested in the manipulation of the monetary metals markets.

In July GATA wrote to each member of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission about the huge new use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism to settle gold and silver futures contracts. GATA asked for an explanation from the CFTC about what is happening with the mechanism.

GATA also asked the commissioners about the tight correlation then prevailing between the gold price and the Chinese yuan. Was the U.S. government, GATA asked, allowing a foreign government to control the price of a commodity whose trading is regulated by the CFTC?

The CFTC did not reply:

http://www.gata.org/node/18405

But now questions about surreptitious government intervention in the markets may become harder to ignore. For a member of Congress, U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, Republican of West Virginia, has drawn on GATA’s research and is asking the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department to explain what they may be doing in the gold market and other markets.

SLIDE 12 — LETTERS FROM REP. MOONEY

In April Representative Mooney asked Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to describe the U.S. government’s policy on gold:

http://gata.org/node/18210

Mooney cited documentation from the U.S. State Department archive, documentation provided by GATA, showing that U.S. policy long has been to drive gold out of the world financial system.

Mnuchin replied through the Treasury’s acting assistant secretary, Brad Bailey. Powell replied directly. But neither acknowledged and answered Mooney’s policy question. What are the U.S. government’s objectives with gold?

The Treasury’s reply denied that the department trades gold through the Bank for International Settlements, Bank of England, and other central banks or governments.

Powell’s reply denied any involvement by the Fed with gold swaps.

But in July Representative Mooney followed up with another letter to the Treasury and the Fed:

http://gata.org/node/18407

Mooney’s new inquiry calls attention to minutes of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee from 1995, wherein Fed General Counsel Virgil Mattingly said the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund has engaged in gold swaps:

http://gata.org/node/1181

See Page 69 of the FOMC minutes here:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19950201meeting.p…

Mooney’s new letter also calls attention to the admission to GATA in 2009 by Fed Governor Kevin M. Warsh that the Fed has secret gold swap arrangements with foreign banks and insists on keeping them secret.

Mooney’s new letter asks Powell for an explanation of what seems like Powell’s contradiction of the Fed’s own records.

Mooney’s new letter also asks if the Treasury trades gold through its Exchange Stabilization Fund, through any other government agency, or through commercial banks and brokers.

Mooney’s new letter also notes the recent close correlation of the gold price with the Chinese yuan and the valuation of the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights. The congressman echoes the question GATA recently put to the CFTC without result.

Mooney writes: “Do these correlations reflect surreptitious intervention in U.S. currency markets by China and currency manipulation by China? What do the Fed and Treasury think of these correlations?”

Perhaps most satisfying for believers in free markets and limited and transparent government, Mooney now has asked the Treasury and Fed to come clean about everything. Mooney wrote: “What markets, if any, are the Fed and Treasury trading in, and through what mechanisms? If the Federal Reserve and Treasury are engaged in trading, what is the objective?”

Mooney’s latest letter to the Fed and the Treasury was sent July 27. More than three months have passed and the Fed and Treasury have not yet replied.

All this information has been dutifully provided by GATA to major financial news organizations in North America and Europe. Last November in London I managed to get 45 minutes with a reporter for the Financial Times at the newspaper’s headquarters. I provided him with the major documentation of market rigging by government that was available then, and since then I have often updated him by e-mail.

While the Financial Times has done nothing with GATA’s information, the newspaper HAS more or less explained why it won’t touch the story of market rigging by government.

The explanation came September 7 in a column by the FT’s chief markets commentator, Associate Editor John Authers:

SLIDE 13 — FINANCIAL TIMES COLUMN BY JOHN AUTHERS

http://www.gata.org/node/18478

Authers’ column was headlined “In a Crisis, Sometimes You Don’t Tell the Whole Story.”

He wrote that during the financial crisis of 2008 he was working for the FT in New York and came upon a bank run at Citibank and Chase Bank in Manhattan, with nervous depositors — people from the financial industry — rushing to withdraw money from their accounts. Authers wrote that when he got to the front of the line at Citibank, he found a helpful manager who explained that instead of withdrawing money, Authers should just transfer some money by opening additional accounts in the names of family members. This would increase his coverage by government deposit insurance. The manager, Authers wrote, explained that Chase was encouraging people to do the same thing being done at Citibank.

Authers wrote: “Using bullet points, she asked if I was married and had children. Then she opened accounts for each of my children in trust, and a joint account with my wife. In just a few minutes I had quadrupled my deposit insurance coverage. I was now exposed to Uncle Sam, not Citi. With a smile she told me she had been doing this all morning. Neither she nor her friend at Chase had ever had requests to do this until that week.

“I was finding it a little hard to breathe. There was a bank run happening, in New York’s financial district. The people panicking were the Wall Streeters who best understood what was going on.

“All I needed was to get a photographer to take a few shots of the well-dressed bankers queueing for their money, and write a caption explaining it.

“We did not do this. Such a story on the FT’s front page might have been enough to push the system over the edge. Our readers went unwarned, and the system went without that final prod into panic.

“Was this the right call? I think so. All our competitors also shunned any photos of Manhattan bank branches. The right to free speech does not give us a right to shout fire in a crowded cinema; there was the risk of a fire, and we might have lit the spark by shouting about it. A few weeks later the deposit protection limit was raised from $100,000 to $250,000 via an emergency economic stabilization bill passed by Congress.”

Remarkably Authers admits in this column that he took care of himself but left his readers exposed until, weeks later, government took care of them by increasing deposit insurance.

Would disclosure of surreptitious government intervention in the gold market and other markets collapse the world financial system?

The Financial Times and all other mainstream financial news organizations seem to think so. But what if that financial system is built on fraud and deceit? Does such a system really deserve protection by news organizations?

This system is really a policy of suppressing all commodity prices comprehensively, through the shorting of commodities in the futures markets, creating a vast imaginary supply of commodities, thereby supporting Western government currencies, government bonds, and other financial assets. This system has destroyed the free and transparent markets the West purports to advocate. It is also exploiting and impoverishing the commodity-producing developing world.

SLIDE 14 — LATIN PHRASE

So the rest of the world, especially the commodity-producing developing world, may prefer the policy expressed by the old legal maxim in Latin: Fiat justitia ruat caelum.

That is, “Let justice be done though the heavens fall.”

SLIDE 15 — CONTACT INFORMATION

Thanks for your kind attention.

END

A total joke:  this ex central banker states that central banks are transparent in gold trading.  Who is she kidding

(courtesy GATA/Isabel Kahn Strausse)

Touting transparency in gold, ex-central banker is contradicted by IMF, BIS, and her own successor

 Section: 

1:27p CT Saturday, November 3, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing in the October edition of The Alchemist, the magazine of the London Bullion Market Association, former French central bank official Isabelle Strauss-Kahn acknowledges that central bank officials notice and are sensitive to complaints that they are manipulating the gold market. She also claims that central bank operations in the gold market have become more transparent, as if she doesn’t know how secretive those operations remain, even at her own former employer.

Strauss-Kahn, who joined the Banque de France in 1995 and was its director of market operations from 2003 to 2008, writes: “In 1995 I was invited to speak at a conference in New York organized by an investment bank. The price of gold was around $380 per ounce at the time and the market was quite bearish. My speech was not controversial and presented the stance of the Banque de France as a big and conservative holder of gold, but it triggered passionate reactions and debates within the audience.

“I could feel the anxiety and opposing views of producers and investment banks, which were all scrutinizing central banks’ behavior. Some were even accusing the authorities of manipulating the market.

“In 1998 Frank Venoroso published the ‘Gold Book Annual,’ questioning the accuracy of the widely respected and independent Gold Fields Mineral Service gold statistics. Rumors abounded — even those of conspiracy. Needless to say, these irrational times made for a very interesting start for me in the international gold market.”

She continues: “In 2000 the European System of Central Banks set up a working group to write a report on the gold market. I chaired that panel. The debates we had were very lively: The question of whether gold lending by central banks had a negative impact on
the spot gold price divided us. I was among those arguing that, in the context of the gold market at that time, gold lending by central banks did have a depressive impact on the gold price.

“This concern explains why the Central Bank Gold Agreement specifically stated that there was to be a block on increasing gold leasing and the usage of futures and options. The second reason behind the agreement was the recognition of the unique position of central banks in the market as a major player and, more importantly, as a significant holder of gold. Being transparent as to their intentions would stabilize the market by reducing uncertainty. But in no way, as some intimated, was there an intention to manipulate the gold price. The initial Central Bank Gold Agreement and the subsequent versions fully achieved these objectives, in my opinion.”

Oh, really?

The first Central Bank Gold Agreement was announced in September 1999 —

https://www.gold.org/what-we-do/official-institutions/central-bank-gold-…

— and if transparency was among its objectives, it nevertheless co-existed cheerfully with the policy of obfuscation outlined secretly by the International Monetary Fund just six months earlier, which was to permit central banks not to distinguish their gold swaps and leases from their ordinary gold reserves, lest honest accounting disclose their surreptitious interventions in the gold and currency markets:

http://www.gata.org/node/12016

Strauss-Kahn adds: “Transparency remains vital for markets. Interest in central banks’ reserve operations in gold surges from time to time, especially when China and Russia are supposed to be active. The various rounds of central bank gold agreements have been quite helpful in promoting an increasing transparency of central banks’ activity in the gold market and in dispelling rumors that central banks are somehow interested in manipulating its price. Furthermore, more and more central banks are subscribing to the IMF Special Data Dissemination Scheme template where they declare their gold holdings. (The People’s Bank of China is one of these.)”

In fact the People’s Bank of China has been extraordinarily secretive about its gold reserves, reporting them as unchanged for more than two years even as huge amounts of the metal have flowed into the country, and the bank has not responded to requests for elaboration:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-26/china-s-gold-mystery-…

Strauss-Kahn concludes: “While central banks may not disclose everything and must preserve some mystique … they should be as open and transparent as possible, and should not seek to be shrouded in mystery just for the sake of it.”

She should send her appeal for transparency to her successor as director of market operations for the Banque de France, Alexandre Gautier, who three years ago summarily dismissed a request from a friend of GATA for an explanation of the objectives of the bank’s admittedly almost daily trading in gold:

http://gata.org/node/14954

“The Banque de France,” Gautier replied, “does not make public the management of its foreign exchange reserves. Furthermore, we very seldom give interviews.”

Even so the bank’s former director of operations is permitted to write articles celebrating central banking’s supposed transparency in the gold market.

Of course the Bank for International Settlements, of which the Banque de France is a member, also trades gold secretly on a nearly daily basis and refuses to explain its objectives:

http://gata.org/node/17793

Thus Strauss-Kahn’s article is largely propaganda and disinformation.

While the London Bullion Market Association’s magazine is named The Alchemist, its alchemy is of a different sort, the sort of alchemy undertaken by modern central banking itself: not to turn lead into gold, as the alchemists of old sought to do, but to turn gold into mere paper.

Strauss-Kahn’s article is headlined “Removing the Cloak from Central Bank Gold Operations” and the October edition of The Alchemist is posted in PDF format at the LBMA’s internet site here —

http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Alchemist/Alchemist_91/Alch91Complete.pdf

— and, for safety’s sake, at GATA’s internet site here:

http://gata.org/files/Alchemist-October-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

end


iii) Other Physical stories
A good account of some central bank purchasing of gold.  Most of Russia’s purchases were from its own mining operations. Poland purchased 13 tonnes of gold but done through the Bank of England.  This gold was then leased so no real effect on price.  However the Hungarian purchase of gold did effect the price as gold was repatriated back to Budapest
((courtesy Ronan Manly/GATA)

Does the recent spate of Central Bank gold buying impact demand and price?

— Published: Monday, 5 November 2018

By Ronan Manly

https://www.bullionsta r.com/

There has been a lot of media coverage recently about the re- emergence of central bank gold buying and the overall larger quantity of gold than central banks as a group have been buying recently compared to previous years. For example, according to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends for Q3 2018, net purchases of gold by central banks in the third quarter of this year were 22% higher than Q3 2017, and the highest quarterly level since Q4 of 2015.

True, there have been a number of ‘new’ central banks announcing gold purchases recently, such as India, Poland and Hungary, central banks that had not been buying gold for a long time until now, but as the World Gold Council admits in its Q3 report, “Russia, Turkey and Kazakhstan continue to account for the lion’s share of purchases“.

And to what extent if any does this central bank gold buying affect the overall gold demand, gold demand at the margin, and by extension does central bank gold buying have any impact on the international gold price? Much of the gold accumulation that the World Gold Council refers to is executed by countries, such as Russia and Kazakhstan, that buy their own gold mining output in a closed-loop. Much of the other central bank gold transacting, such as by India, Hungary and Poland, has been done via central bank trading desks / the London Gold Market where the entire market is opaque with no trade reporting and no information on trade counterparties. Since in general the central bank gold market is ultra secretive and exempt from all manner of reporting, there is often not even any proof of anything much in the central bank gold market nor even any evidence in a lot of cases that the claimed trades have even taken place.

There is also no evidence that this central bank gold buying has any effect on the international gold price despite what, for example an article such as “Buying by central banks & ETFs set to propel gold prices higher” claims. So its instructive to look at some of this central bank gold buying and ask to what extent it could impact overall gold demand and could it have any impact on the gold price.

Russia – From the Mines to the Vaults

In all of the recent financial media commentary about central bank gold buying, the Bank of Russia (the Russian Federation’s central bank) has taken center-stage as the main official sector gold buyer that has both boosted the global central bank net gold buying numbers, and that has been the poster child to back up claims that central bank gold buying will boost the gold price.

For the 9 months to the end of September, the Bank of Russia added 199.4 tonnes of gold to its reserves, and now claims to hold 2037 tonnes of gold in its strategic reserves. And for the full year to the end of 2018, the Bank of Russia is now on target to add over 230 tonnes of gold. This would exceed the 224 tonnes of gold it purchased in 2017, the 199 tonnes it bought in 2016, and the 208 tonnes of gold is purchased in 2015.

However, the often overlooked but important points about Russian State gold buying, are that a) it’s a long- standing strategic policy in the public domain that the Russians have been pursuing for a number of years now which means that the ‘market’ knows about it , and b) the Bank of Russia sources its gold from Russian gold mines using Russian banks to intermediate.

This second point gets almost no attention from anyone in the financial media, but is important since Russian gold buying more or less exists in a closed-loop from Russian gold mines to Bank of Russia gold vaults. Briefly put, a small number of Russia’s large commercial banks (such as VTB Bank, Bank Otkritie, Sberbank, MDM, and Gazprombank) are licensed by and have been appointed by the Russian government to intermediate between the Russian gold producers (mines) and the Bank of Russia by buying gold from the miners under long-term sales agreements with the producers, and then selling this gold on the Russian central bank (after its been refined).

Bank of Russia gold reserves accumulation 2006 – 2018. Source: www.goldchartsrus.com

If this system did not exist, a lot of this gold would probably still be in the ground within the gold mining regions of the Russian Federation instead of in the Bank of Russia’s vaults in Moscow and St Petersburg. True, the Russian State wants this gold in its strategic gold reserves and has developed this system by which to procure its own national in-ground gold reserves, but as a closed-loop operation from Russian mines to the Russian central bank and as a long-standing publicly signaled policy, is this the same as central banks suddenly entering the gold market and buying after years of inactivity? And is the Russia State gold buying even affecting the international gold price?

I would argue no on both counts. Firstly, the international gold price is not determined in the physical gold markets but is determined in the synthetic cash-settled unallocated paper gold market of London and in the equally synthetic and derivative based COMEX gold futures trading run out of New York. See Bullionstar article here for a full discussion.

Secondly, the Russian State is accumulating gold as a strategic reserve primarily because it is lucky to have this gold in relatively large quantities as a natural resource within its national borders. The Russian State gold accumulation system is most importantly a closed loop which has no impact on gold demand on any international gold market. The argument could be made that the Russians might buy gold on the international market if they did not have their own domestically mined gold, but equally they might not. The same goes for Kazakhstan whose central bank, the National Bank of Kazakhstan, now holds 335 tonnes of gold, and which has been routinely accumulating significant quantities of gold over the last number of years by buying its own domestically mined gold.

Mongolia – A Closed-Loop

The Mongolian central bank is has also been referenced recently by the World Gold Council as a gold buyer of its nation’s gold reserves, but like the Russian Federation, Mongolian gold buying exists in a closed loop within the domestic economy where the central bank draws in locally mined gold under an initiative called the “National Gold to the Fund of Treasures” which encourages gold miners and individuals to sell domestically mined gold.

For the first 10 months of 2018, the Bank of Mongolia, Mongolia’s central bank, announced that it had bought 17.7 tonnes of gold for the national ‘Treasury Fund’, with 7.1 tonnes accumulated in the six months to the end of June, and another 10.6 tonnes purchased from July to October, a time frame which coincides with the peak gold mining season in Mongolia.

Informal gold mining in Mongolia

All of this gold was purchased within Mongolia from ‘legal entities and individuals’. This follows 2017 when the Bank of Mongolia bought 20 tonnes of gold, again from local gold producers. The central bank has a full year target to buy 22 tonnes of gold, which would mean it needs to procure another 4.3 tonnes in the fourth quarter. Like the case of the Bank of Russia and the case of Kazakhstan, the Bank of Mongolia has been incentivising its domestic gold mining sector to mine and sell this gold to the central bank. This buying has no effect on gold demand in the international markets and no effect on the international gold price.

India – Gold Transactions at the BoE and BIS

The Reserve Bank of India also emerged as a central bank gold buyer in 2018, buying 8.1 tonnes of gold in the first half of the year, mostly in March and June, and then more significantly announcing that it had bought another 13.7 tonnes of gold in July and August, bringing its claimed gold purchases for the year to date (end of August) to 21.8 tonnes.

Prior to 2018, the last time the RBI claims to have bought gold (apart from 0.3 tonnes in December 2017) was in November 2009 when the RBI says it purchased 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Analysing where these recent gold purchases might have been made, the RBI’s 2018 annual report is helpful in that it states that during the financial year to end of June 2018, the RBI bought 8.46 tonnes of gold bringing its total gold reserves holdings to 566.23 tonnes. Prior to that the RBI’s gold holdings totalled 557.77 tonnes. The 8.46 tonnes purchased in the financial year to the end of June 2018 is held abroad since of the 557.77 tonnes of gold held since 2009, 265.49 tonnes had been stored at the Bank of England and with Bank for International Settlements, and 292.30 tonnes stored domestically in the RBI gold vaults in Nagpur.

In its latest annual report, the RBI says that the same 292.30 tonnes of gold are “held as backing for notes issued as an asset of Issue Department” while “the balance of 273.93 metric tonnes” (which is 265.49 + 8.46 tonnes) is “treated as an asset of Banking Department.” Therefore the 8.46 tonne addition of gold that was added from December 2017 to June 2018 is not part of the 292.30 tonnes but is held outside India with the 265.49 tonnes, most likely at the gold vaults of the Bank of England. This means that the 13.7 tonnes of gold the RBI bought in July and August is also most likely also held outside India, i.e. at the Bank of England in London.

Since there are no details from the RBI as to what form its recent gold purchases took and who the counterparties were nor on whether the gold is held in custody or whether this gold has been lent out, swapped, or put in short-term rolling gold deposits, then it’s not clear at all if the RBI gold purchases have had any net impact on gold demand in the market.

Poland – Gold out on Loan

According to Poland’s central bank, Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP)  and IMF data, the NBP purchased 13.7 tonnes of gold in recent months, adding 1.9 tonnes in July, 7.5 tonnes in August, and another 4.4 tonnes in September. Following these purchases the NBP now claims to hold 116.7 tonnes of gold in its reserves.

Given that the 103 tonnes of gold that the NBP held before these recent purchases was held at the Bank of England and most importantly was loaned out as short-term gold deposits with bullion banks, (see ‘Poland section’ here), then Poland’s recently purchased gold (i.e. 13.7 tonnes) has most likely also been loaned out to bullion banks, and the transactions would have been those of buying the gold and immediately lending it out to the London Gold Market, at which point it could have been sold again by the borrower.

Therefore in Poland’s case, it’s possible that the recently purchased gold has not, on a net-net basis contributed anything to real demand for physical gold.

Hungary – Bringing it All Back Home

In what was probably the most surprising development in this spate of recent central bank gold purchases, Hungary’s central bank, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) , announced in October that it had boosted its gold reserve holdings by 1000% or 10 fold, from 3.1 tonnes up to 31.5 tonnes. In a press release to coincide with the announcement,the MNB said that it had purchased the gold (28.4 tonnes) in ‘physical form’ (gold bars), and most interestingly, that it had repatriated all of this newly purchased gold back to Hungary. See BullionStar article ‘In surprise move, Central Bank of Hungary announces 10-fold jump in its gold reserves‘ for full details.

Some of Hungary’s gold that was repatriated from London in March 2018

In March of this year, the MNB had also repatriated its original 3.1 tonnes of gold from the Bank of England in London back to Hungary. See the MNB’s March announcement on the MNB website here (in Hungarian language).  While the latest MNB announcement during October did not specifically say where the 28.4 tonnes of newly purchased gold was repatriated from, we can assume that it was repatriated from London since the original 3.1 tonnes from also repatriated from London.

By extension, this would most likely mean that the Hungarian central bank bought its 28.4 tonnes of gold bars in London, either using the services of the Bank of England or a London- based bullion bank, or both. This purchase transaction would on a standalone basis create net new demand for physical gold unless the other side of the transaction had been another central bank selling the same gold. One candidate for this sale could be the central bank of Morocco which in August sold 18.8 tonnes of gold and shrunk its gold holdings from 22 tonnes to just 3.3 tonnes.

Some or all of Hungary’s gold purchase could have contributed to a net increase in the demand for physical gold in the secondary market and might have to have been sourced from gold-backed ETFs, bullion bank inventory stocks, or gold borrowed from other central banks. Equally, the Hungarian gold could have been sourced from another central bank selling at the Bank of England, a seller who as of now has still not revealed that they were a seller. As the central bank gold market is ultra- secretive, its impossible to know one way or the other.

Conclusion

Central banks hold gold as a reserve asset for a number of reasons including portfolio diversification, as a hedge against fiat currencies, as a safe haven or form of financial insurance (stability), and as a way of earning a return through active management. The current spate of increased central bank interest in gold is definitely a positive development and in some cases is signalling that various central banks have less confidence in the current monetary system and might see a role for gold in a future international monetary system.

But it is dangerous for the media and the World Gold Council to group all central bank gold purchases into the same basket, since the motivations of individual central banks are not the same and the manner in which they accumulate gold is not identical. It is also erroneous for media articles to claim that central bank gold buying will boost overall global gold demand or boost the gold price when in some cases the gold accumulation is from mines direct to central banks and in other cases it’s not even clear (due to market secrecy) what type of transactions the central banks used to ‘acquire’ their gold.

It would be far more effective if the World Gold Council and the financial news agencies reported on what type of transactions a lot of these central bank gold trades (such as by India and Poland) actually are, as well as started to ask real questions to the Bank of England and the LBMA about why there is no detailed and transparent reporting of all central bank gold trades in the market including gold loans, gold swaps and the real state of central bank physical gold holdings excluding gold loans.

Ronan Manly
E-mail Ronan Manly on: ronan.manly@bull ionstar.com

-END-

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9270/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9209   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 11.04 POINTS OR 0,41%

. HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 551.96 POINTS OR 2.02%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 344.67 POINTS OR 1.55%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.58/Euro FALLS TO 1.1371

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.13/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.89/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 62.98 and Brent: 72.92

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE:  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.43%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.35% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.58%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.30

3k Gold at $1229.20 silver at:14.69   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 4/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.22

3m oil into the 62 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.24DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0060 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1442 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.43%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.20% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.45%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4489

Global Stock Rally Fizzles As Trade Hopes Fade, Rate

Worries Return

Last week’s four-day rally, which was driven by hopes of easing in trade tensions between the US and China, fizzled with US equity futures mixed, stocks in Europe struggling for direction and Asian shares declining on Monday as concerns over another poor Caixin Service PMI report out of China and rising US interest rates dampened risk appetite while optimism over a potential America-China trade deal receded as investors shifted focus on the US midterm elections Tuesday and the Fed’s rate decision later this week.

Asian stocks dropped as skepticism over the outcome of the trade dispute between the U.S. and China persists. While Chinese President Xi Jinping hit back against President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies, he didn’t outline any new proposals that would suggest he was prepared to meet Trump’s demands in his much-anticipated speech today. Meanwhile Berkshire Hathaway rose in pre-market trading after operating profit doubled in the third-quarter and the company bought back almost $1 billion in stock in a rare repurchase.

European telecom and utilities companies were among the biggest advancers as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index eventually edged up, though futures on the Dow and S&P 500 were slightly weaker.  Major European indices are mixed, with Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.5%) leading the gains, and Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.4%) lagging as the index is weighed on by local banking names such as Banco BPM (-2.5%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (-2.0%) following the release of stress test results, which showed the former as the worst performing Italian lender following a slump in the nation’s bonds amid political turmoil, while Goldman Sachs analysts predicted more cuts to earnings forecasts for Italian lenders, cutting BPER Banca and Intesa Sanpaolo to “sell”. Furthermore, Barclays (-0.1%) and Lloyds Banking Group (-0.8%) were amongst the worst performers due to weak growth, credit losses and Brexit uncertainty.

Earlier shares in Asia slid following Friday’s rally and after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow downplayed the potential for a quick deal with China and denied Washington has drafted a trade agreement with Beijing. MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan lost 1.2% percent, slipping back toward last week’s 18-month trough. Also overnight, President Xi Jinping acknowledged conditions abroad had created some challenges for the Chinese economy, but promised to lower import tariffs and continue to broaden market access. The Shanghai Composite dropped as much as 2% before recouping most losses by the close.

U.S. stock futures were down as much as 0.3% in early trading amid concerns a trade deal between the United States and China may not be struck soon, before recovering much of their losses. “After a four-day rally people tend to become a bit exhausted – and just generally I feel like everyone’s on hold until the (end-November) G20 and also the Fed coming up,” said Gregory Perdon, chief investment officer at Arbuthnot Latham. At the same time, the S&P’s critical 200DMA support level has now become resistance.

Politics and central banks loom large in a busy week for global markets. U.S. congressional elections, seen as a referendum on the policies of President Donald Trump, take place Tuesday. On the Brexit front, Prime Minister Theresa May is due to discuss the latest proposals with her cabinet the same day. Investors then turn their eyes to the Fed’s policy meeting. Though officials are expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at their penultimate 2018 meeting Thursday, clues will be sought for moves into 2019.

With the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday and Thursday, the prospect of even tighter U.S. monetary policy after strong economic data is also on investors’ minds, pushing emerging market lower by 0.9%. Markets are now pricing in a higher probability of a December rate hike with further tightening to 2.75-3.00% seen through 2019. Tighter monetary policy, a stronger dollar, and trade tariffs have created what Citi strategists call “Trump’s triple tightening” this year. “This …has slowed growth and raised risks around the world,” they wrote.

Investors were also cautious ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. Opinion polls show a strong chance the Democratic Party could win control of the House of Representatives after two years of wielding no practical political power in Washington, with Trump’s Republican Party likely to hold the Senate. “What’s spooking the market is not Congress or Senate – what’s spooking the market is the volatility of Trump,” said Perdon. “I’m not convinced if there’s a change of control that would be able to temper that.”

The British pound briefly jumped to a two-week high on hopes of a Brexit deal, before paring gains to trade up 0.2% at $1.2990. Over the weekend, A Sunday Times report that an all-UK customs deal will be written into the agreement governing Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union drove the pound its highest since Oct. 22. Enthusiasm fizzled, however, after May’s office said the report was speculative, even as it noted that 95% of the withdrawal agreement was settled and negotiations were ongoing.

Elsewhere, the yen barely moved after BOJ Governor Kuroda hinted Monday that he wants to normalize monetary policy once the central bank gets closer to its price goal.

The dollar consolidated at the start of an event-packed week in the U.S. that features midterm elections, a Federal Reserve meeting and $83BN auctions on 3- to 30-year maturities.

Treasury yields eased back ever so slightly after rising on Friday. Italian bond yields rose, driving bank stocks down 1.8%.

Crude was on track for a sixth day of declines even as sanctions on Iran oil snapped back into place Monday although softened by waivers that will allow some countries to still import Iranian crude, at least temporarily.

Markit Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index are expected on the macro side. Earnings include Marriott International, Avis Budget and Ferrari among others.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures unch 0.3% to 2,724
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.03% to 363.96
  • MXAP down 1.2% to 151.73
  • MXAPJ down 1.2% to 485.92
  • Nikkei down 1.6% to 21,898.99
  • Topix down 1.1% to 1,640.39
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 25,934.39
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 2,665.43
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 34,912.15
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5,818.14
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 2,076.92
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at 0.427%
  • Euro down 0.08% to $1.1379
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.9 bps to 2.951%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 1.577%
  • Brent Futures down 0.1% to $72.73/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.09% to $1,231.77
  • U.S. Dollar Index unchanged at 96.54

Top Overnight News

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping hit back against protectionist trade practices advocated by U.S. President Donald Trump in a speech in which he also pledged to further open his country’s markets
  • May has secured concessions from Brussels that will let her keep all of Britain in a customs union with the European Union to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland, the Sunday Times reported
  • While the Bank of Japan still needs to stick persistently with its stimulus program to achieve its 2 percent inflation target, the country is no longer in a situation where it’s best to be “decisively implementing a large-scale policy to overcome deflation,” Governor Kuroda said in a speech. Minutes of BOJ September policy meeting showed that most members thought it appropriate to continue monetary stimulus persistently
  • Denmark is concerned that the EU still doesn’t have a tenable plan to ensure banks maintain access to vital financial infrastructure in the form of London-based clearing services, according to Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen
  • Euro-zone companies are increasingly running into capacity constraints that will boost inflation, the European Central Bank said in a report
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping said the nation will cut import taxes further, and buy more than $30 trillion of goods in the next 15 years
  • Contenders to succeed German Chancellor Angela Merkel as party chief will criss-cross the country to campaign ahead of a convention in December, with Friedrich Merz, head of BlackRock Inc’s German asset management unit and a one-time party antagonist of Merkel, seen as the front-runner
  • The speaker of Sweden’s parliament said he will nominate opposition leader Ulf Kristersson as the prime minister candidate next week to break the gridlock in place since an inconclusive election

Asian equity markets began the week with a negative tone after last Friday’s losses on Wall St where the Nasdaq underperformed after tech giant Apple dropped nearly 7%, while sentiment was also dampened by soft Chinese Caixin PMI data and after US-China trade hopes were tempered by pessimism from NEC’s Kudlow. ASX 200 (-0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.5%) were both pressured from the open although stocks in Australia briefly recovered in tandem with the price swings in its largest weighted financial sector as participants mulled over Westpac’s flat FY profits, while focus in Japan remained on corporate updates including index heavyweight Fast Retailing which slumped following a 10% decline in same-store sales. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-2.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) were negative after US administration officials downplayed prospects of an imminent resolution to the US-China trade dispute and with Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI at the weakest since September 2017 and June 2016 respectively, while the PBoC Medium-term Lending Facility announcement and President Xi’s pledge to further open up China’s economy only helped plug losses momentarily. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher as the risk averse tone spurred demand for safety. This helped prices recover from Friday’s declines which coincided with a sell-off in T-notes and a surge in US yields by the most in the month following the NFP-beat.

Top Asian News

  • Kuroda Hints at Normalization as Economy Improves
  • Xi Says China to Cut Import Taxes Further, Import $30 Trillion
  • Indonesia’s Economy Shrugs Off Rate Hikes as Growth Exceeds 5%
  • Runaway BHP Iron Ore Train Deliberately Derailed, ATSB Says
  • Thai Union Surges After Earnings Beat Estimates on Tuna Prices

Major European indices are mixed, with Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.5%) leading the gains, and Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.4%) lagging as the index is weighed on by local banking names such as Banco BPM (-2.5%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (-2.0%) following the release of stress test results, which showed the former as the worst performing Italian lender following a slump in the nation’s bonds amid political turmoil. Furthermore, Barclays (-0.1%) and Lloyds Banking Group (-0.8%) were amongst the worst performers due to weak growth, credit losses and Brexit uncertainty. Moving on, major sectors are mixed with utilities (+0.6%) and consumer staples (+0.6%) outperforming, while industrials are lag (-0.5%). In terms of individual equities, GAM (+2%) shares are in the green after being approached by Schroders (-1.6%) regarding a potential acquisition; which sources say GAM rejected. On the flip side, Hiscox (-7.3%) are lagging in the Stoxx 600, after their earnings showed a substantial increase in written premiums.

Top European News

  • Big Short’s Eisman Is Shorting Two U.K. Banks on Brexit
  • EU Faces a Risk in 2019 That Has Nothing to Do With Populists
  • U.K. Services Growth Slumps as Brexit Hurts Business Optimism
  • Merkel’s Party Turns Inward With All-Out Leadership Contest
  • With Italy Deadline Looming, Dombrovskis Says EU Talking to Rome

In FX, the broad Dollar has lost some of Friday’s post-NFP recovery momentum ahead of the US mid-term elections and FOMC, but the index is holding relatively firm around 96.500 as major pairings trade somewhat mixed. GBP/NZD – Vying for top spot amongst G10 rivals, and perhaps surprisingly or unexpectedly as the Pound recovers from another UK PMI miss, and from the major services sector. However, Cable is back above 1.3000 from a knee-jerk dip to circa 1.2970 and still benefiting from latest press reports suggesting the EU has made concessions on the Irish border and customs front, albeit someway off high just over 1.3060 at one stage. Similarly, the Kiwi has rebounded firmly from overnight lows on the back of a pretty downbeat NZ Treasury business survey revealing a further deterioration in sentiment over Q3 and risks to the growth outlook for 2018 and next year due to global trade spats. Nzd/Usd back up around 0.6665 vs 0.6635 at worst, with cross-winds also helping as AUD/Nzd remains anchored near 1.0800 and Aud/Usd struggles to climb through 0.7200. EUR/CAD/JPY/CHF – All underperforming vs the Greenback, with the single currency capped around 1.1400 and still wary about another Italy vs EU face-off on the budget, while the Loonie straddles 1.3100 after last Friday’s NA jobs data (Canadian not as upbeat as US, largely on soft wages) and ahead of a speech by BoC Governor Poloz. Usd/Jpy has nudged further beyond 113.00 and soaked up offers/hedges vs a modest 113.25 option expiry and the Franc is back under parity within a 1.0020-55 range. EM – Regional currencies are broadly weaker vs the Usd with the Yuans undermined by less encouraging US-China trade vibes and weak Chinese PMIs, while the Try is pivoting 5.4500 in wake of Turkish inflation data showing a further rise in CPI.

In commodities, WTI (-0.3%) and Brent (-0.1%) are just off session lows with choppy trade experienced in the complex following the implementation of oil-related sanctions on Iran by the US. Iranian President emerged stating that Iran will sell oil and break sanctions, while he added that Iran is open to talks with the US once President Trump respects commitments. Temporary exemptions are being granted to eight countries making the sanctions less severe than anticipated, additionally removing the risk of a supply shortage according to FXTM strategist Hussein Sayed. Furthermore, Iranian press noted that the terms of the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) with the EU will be announced soon. The SPV is the European effort to process Iran’s import and export payments. Diplomates said the details are being discussed by finance ministers, with EU Finance Ministers due to meet in Brussels on Tuesday, although the SPV was not on the agenda as of Sunday. Gold (+0.1%) is flat and off of session highs as the yellow metal mirrors USD moves. Elsewhere, copper prices pulled back on profit taking and amid the averse risk tone.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 54.6, prior 54.7; Composite PMI, prior 54.8
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, est. 59.1, prior 61.6
  • Nov. 5-Nov. 9: Mortgage Delinquencies, prior 4.36%; MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, prior 1.05%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Tomorrow’s US mid-term elections are the focal point for the week. My EMR colleague Quinn Brody wrote a preview note last week highlighting that polls and betting markets indicate that the Democrats are likely to take control of the House, while the Republicans are likely to retain Senate control. The major issues for voters are healthcare, immigration, and trade policy. For markets, the key issues are whether to expect further fiscal stimulus, and what the implications are for trade policy. On the former, unified Republican control is likely more bullish, while on the latter, a divided government could de-escalate the current  trade conflict.

Either way, our US strategists are unlikely to be swayed from their bullish equities and bearish rates view. Our US equity strategists have written extensively on how markets have historically rallied around midterm elections, though this is equally due to historic coincidence (growth has tended to be strong around elections) as the actual elections. That said they expect this scenario to repeat.

Staying with politics Mr Trump is meeting Presidents Macron and Putin on Friday which could generate headlines while in Germany the CDU party retreat at the weekend could provide headlines today and an update from the party on future leadership directions. Away from that we’ve also got a Fed meeting with no press conference (Thursday), more global PMI data (today and tomorrow), US PPI (Friday), China trade (Thursday) and inflation data (Friday), and more corporate earnings scheduled.

The weekend news of most note was the UK Sunday Times claiming that PM May has secured concessions from Brussels to allow all of Britain to stay in a customs union with the EU and thus avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland. There have been a lot of Brexit stories in the press of late that have had limited substance but to be fair this potential breakthrough was starting to appear on the wires at the back end of last week. Indeed DB’s Oliver Harvey published a note on Friday looking at the scenarios around a deal that kept a UK wide customs union before a permanent trade deal could be agreed. He has dubbed this ‘Brexiternity’. See his note here for more details. We could hear of progress this week as the UK formally responds to the latest EU proposals on the UK-wise backstop. Indeed there is a UK cabinet meeting tomorrow to discuss the latest developments. Before we relax and think Brexit is running more smoothly we should add that overnight the UK Telegraph has slightly confused the message from the Times article suggesting that the UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has privately demanded in a letter to Mrs May that Britain reserve the right to pull out of the future EU’s Irish backstop after just three months. So uncertainty over where we are will linger. Sterling is up +0.12% in early trade this morning but was up around 0.7% before the Telegraph story filter through.

The week has kicked off with a risk off note in Asia with the Nikkei (-1.32%), Hang Seng (-2.65%), Shanghai Comp (-1.00%) and Kospi (-1.40%) all down along with most Asian markets. This is likely as a result of comments from US President Trump’s economic aide Larry Kudlow who cautioned against thinking there was the prospect of an immediate trade deal with China and that the  White House wasn’t asked to draft a deal with China. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (-0.39%) are pointing towards a softer open.

Overnight, China’s October Caixin composite PMI came in at 50.5 (vs. 52.1 in last month) as the services PMI decelerated to 50.8 (vs. 52.8 expected) while Japan’s final October composite PMI came at 52.5 (vs. 50.7 in last month) and services PMI stood at 52.4 (vs. 50.2 last month). Elsewhere, the BoJ Governor Kuroda said that Japan is no longer in a situation where it’s best to be “decisively implementing a large-scale policy to overcome deflation,” even as he added that the BoJ still needs to stick persistently with its stimulus program to achieve its 2% inflation target. He reiterated that the BOJ is aware of the downward pressure on commercial banks profitability and the risks to financial stability in the event of a large negative shock, owing to the BoJ’s stimulus program.

Risk assets staged an impressive rally last week, with many of the recent underperformers reversing their trend to finish the week strongly. After a slow October, the S&P 500’s worst month since 2011, the US benchmark rallied +2.42% (-0.63% on Friday though with Apple -6.6%). Other US benchmarks also snapped their recent losing streaks with the NYFANG index up +2.79% (-1.87% Friday), the DOW up +2.36% (-0.43% Friday), and the NASDAQ up +2.65%, (-1.04% Friday). The Russell 2000 of small-cap US firms rose +4.32% (+0.19% Friday), for its best week since February. Equities outside the US also had a strong week, with the STOXX 600 up +3.33% (+0.28% Friday) for its best week since December 2016. The MSCI EM index gained 5.56% (+0.64% Friday), with the Hong Kong Hang Seng leading the way up +7.16% (+4.21% Friday), as news reports suggested that the US and China are approaching a trade détente. In fixed income, 10-year Treasury yields rose +13.7bps (+8.2bps Friday), as the strong nonfarm payrolls report (250k vs 200k expected) boosted sentiment on the US economy. Notably, 10-year real yields are now at their highest levels since February 2011 at 1.15% (+14.4bps last week and +5.0bps Friday), while breakevens were steadier at 2.06% (-0.7bps last week and +3.2bps on Friday).

The dollar touched a fresh year-to-date high during the week, but retraced a bit to close only +0.19% stronger (+0.28% Friday), with its weakness in the latter half of the week partly driven by Chinese yuan strength amid the news of the potential trade reconciliation. The yuan gained +0.79% (+0.28% Friday) for its best week since March. Brent crude oil prices retreated -6.17% (-0.08% Friday) for their worst week since February, as the US granted sanctions waivers for eight countries, signaling that the administration will tolerate some degree of Iranian oil exports, consistent with the prior sanctions episode.

Corporate earnings remain in focus, with 75% of S&P 500 having reported their results so far. Eighty-two percent of companies have beaten consensus expectations on profits, while 61.0% have beaten on revenue. Earnings growth is running at a +26.5% yoy pace in aggregate, quite a robust pace, while sales are growing at a +8.79% yoy pace. Some of the outlooks have been more negative than from recent quarters which has taken the shine of the good headline numbers. In Europe, 57% of STOXX 600 companies have reported, and 50.9% have beaten on earnings expectations, while 53.4% have exceeded revenue forecasts. In aggregate, STOXX 600 profits are up 13.1% yoy, on track for the best reporting season of the year but still a bit off the S&P 500’s blistering pace.

We start the European session with the November Sentix investor confidence reading for the Euro Area and October ISM non-manufacturing print in the US. The ECB’s Guindos is due to speak while Euro Area finance ministers are due to meet in Brussels with Italy high on the agenda. EU Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is also due to deliver a Brexit speech in Brussels, while  China President Xi Jingping is due to address the country’s first International Import Expo. Monday also marks the day that US sanctions on Iranian oil flows go back into effect.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.04 POINTS OR 0.41% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 551.96 POINTS OR 2.02% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 334.67 OR 1.55%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.52%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9270 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 6298 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.92 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN AT 6.9270 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9209: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3 C CHINA

Saturday:

Interesting:  Chinese senior leadership are preparing for an economic collision with the uSA in the upcoming Spring 2018

(courtesy zerohedge)

China’s Senior Leadership Prepares For Economic Collision In Spring 2019

China’s senior leadership has just signaled for more stimulus, as its economy and stock market prepares for a possible economic collision in early 2019 from the trade war with the United States.

The Communist Party’s Politburo, a group of 25 people who oversee the Communist Party of China headed by President Xi Jinping, finally admitted on Wednesday that there was “growing downward pressure” on the economy with “profound changes” in the economic environment, Xinhua news agency reported.

This statement from the communist party was a massive shift from three months ago when the Politburo said there had been “noticeable” changes in the economic environment, reported the South China Morning Post.

It is the first time the leadership has shown public concern about China’s rapidly slowing economy since the trade war began earlier this year.

Calls for more stimulus came after disappointing economic data showed the country is headed for turmoil next year. The purchasing manager report showed widespread deterioration across the country could spill over into the rest of the world.

The Politburo said there were “a lot of difficulties with certain enterprises and the emergence of risks accumulated over long periods of time.”

“We need to attach great importance to this situation and be more forward-looking to respond in a timely manner,” the statement said.

“We have to enhance reform and opening up to focus on core problems with targeted solutions … We must get our own things done and firmly seek high-quality growth.”

Officials have already tried a handful accommodative policies, ranging from tax cuts to regulatory support, rather than loading up the ole’ fiscal cannon as seen in prior slowdowns. Bloomberg notes that investors seem unpersuaded by the drip-feed approach with the yuan near decade lows and regional stock markets in correction territories to soon bear markets.

“Accepting slower growth has long been a challenge for Beijing, but now the rate of slowdown is firmly out of the comfort zone,” Katrina Ell, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Sydney, told Bloomberg. “In recent years the balancing act has been addressing risks in the financial system against pressure to stabilize economic growth. It appears the latter is again more of a priority.”

“Manufacturing growth slowed to the lowest level in more than two years, and while economists had seen further tax cuts coming, few had predicted bigger stimulus for now. An export sub-gauge fell deeper into contraction territory, suggesting that an earlier export rush to beat US tariff deadlines will fade sharply.

The US is preparing to announce by early December tariffs on all remaining imports from China if talks next month between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping fail to ease the trade war. An increase in the tariffs already in effect on US$200 billion of Chinese imports scheduled for January would provide a stiff test to many exporters and could quicken the shifting of global supply chains,” reported Bloomberg.

In the overnight session on Tuesday, a series of trade data releases suggested that the global economy was headed for economic turbulence in the coming months. Industrial output for September in South Korea and Japan missed estimates, as did third-quarter output in Taiwan.

“The spring of 2019 will be the real difficult time for China as multiple factors such as trade tension, slower sales of durable goods and the end of a property boom in lower-tier cities weigh on growth,” Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura International Ltd. in Hong Kong, said after the announcement. “It’ll be a test if China can sustain growth of around 6.5%. Policymakers are likely to further cut taxes and ease property purchase controls in bigger cities to lift the economy.”

The government and central bank have introduced several stabilizing measures, adding to steps to boost liquidity in the financial system, tax deductions for households and targeted measures aimed at helping exporter. However, those countercyclical buffers have yet to have much effect.

George Magnus, an economist at Oxford University’s China Cent, told Bloomberg if the new stimulus measures accelerate China’s debt load, then the communist party could face backlash and have unintended consequences so late in the cycle.

“It was always the case that the acid test of the government’s resolve to deleverage would be its nerve if the economy started to falter,” he said. “Which it is.”

Next year could be rough for China as it now prepares for economic turmoil thanks to the trade war. As for the U.S., the reason is apparent why October was one of the worst selloffs in the stock market in quite some time: Wall Street finally figured out that after all the front-loading Trump’s economic miracle, global growth is about to drop off rather abruptly and usher in a possible worldwide recession.

END

Last night:

Chinese stocks fall considerably along with the yuan.  Chinese PMI which is their manufacturing and service sector tumble to almost 3 year lows

China is falling apart

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Stocks, Yuan Tumble As PMI Plunges To 28-Month Lows

Despite additional easing and a 403.5 billion yuan 1-year maturity MLF operation, yuan is tumbling along with China (and Hong Kong stocks) following an ugly Caixin Composite PMI print (the weakest since June 2016).

New orders tumbled to 50.3, the weakest since Feb 2016…

The CSI 300 Consumer Staples Index is the worst performer among 10 industry groups on the broad market with a 2.7% loss.

As Bloomberg’s Kwoungwha Kim notes, it is quite a bad day for consumer stocks to underperform. But they are down as October’s Caixin PMI tumbled. To keep the economy growing, China needs to nurture its consumer market and that requires more imports!

Offshore yuan is extending Friday’s losses from the exuberant Trump trade headline squeeze…

China stocks are giving back Friday’s bounce…

And Hang Seng is plunging…

The PBOC skipped open market operations once again but conducted 403.5b yuan of MLF operations (matching the total maturity of MLF at CNY403.5 billion).

President Xi just started speaking and took multiple jabs at President Trump:

Xi reiterated support for multilateral trade, globalization, and some stock standard language on China’s role preserving the global trading order.

Xi says globalization is an irreversible “historic trend”, and every nation should make their effort in it.

“The will of history will keep rolling forward no matter what.” [ZH: Like a tank in Tiananmen Square?]

“Openness has become a trademark of China.” [ZH: apart from the internet, and trade,…]

“China’s door will never be closed, it will only open still wider.” [ZH: except to Winnie the Pooh]

“It is our sincere commitment to open the Chinese market.” [ZH: if you give us all your IP first]

It does feel like his opening remarks are less of an olive branch to the US trade hawks and more of an admonishment of their outlook. Of course, China critics would counter that Xi has said all of this before.

Finally – as PMI plummets, Xi confirms the delusion: “We can take an absolutely positive view on China economy”.

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

Italy just went through a terrific storm which provided an unprecedented amount of rain and wind over the course of several days.  It caused massive damage but it seems that huge number of yachts have been destroyed.  The insurance industry will be a devastating bill to pay here

(courtesy zerohedge)

Watch: Yacht-Apocalypse – Storm Slams Italy, Destroys Superyachts

Last week, an unprecedented amount of rain and life-threatening wind battered parts of the Mediterranean over the course of several days, causing massive amounts of damage to superyachts and infrastructure in yachting hotspots across France, Italy, and Spain.

According to Superyacht News, one of the hardest hit regions by the storm was the port town of Rapallo, located on the Italian Riviera coastline. The storm caused a marina’s breakwater to collapse, which then allowed 10 meter high waves to enter the unprotected port.

Italian news agency ANSA said 180 yachts were destroyed in the storm, including many superyachts, and one boat belonging to former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

Local media outlets said the port of Rapallo in the northern region of Liguria looks like an “apocalyptic” sight, with luxury yachts half-sunk, damaged or leaning to the side.

The insurance implications of the storm damage to yachts across the Mediterranean could be massive. Paul Miller, director of underwriting at Hiscox, told Superyacht News that there would be salvage and recovery operations starting in November to remove the damaged vessels.

Yacht-apocalypse comes as eleven people were reportedly killed as the storm left many coastal areas in Italy badly damaged.

Footage emerged of tourist walking in Venice with flood waters up to their waist, it was the highest level of water since 2008.

Igor Petricevic@igor_petricevic

#venice right now. The streets are completely flooded:#flooding #Flood #Italy

end

EU/IRAN/USA/OTHER COUNTRIES

Interesting:  Mnuchin threatens the European based SWIFT system  which is vital for payments being secure between countries with sanctions if Iran is not cut off from this payment system.

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Threatens SWIFT With Sanctions If Iran Isn’t Cut

Off

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin threatened the global financial messaging service SWIFT on Friday that it could be penalized if it doesn’t cut off financial services to entities and individuals doing business with Iran. The warning came just days ahead of the US re-imposition of all US sanctions on Iran that had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal, which will take effect at midnight tonight and cover Iran’s shipping, financial and energy sectors.

Speaking to reporters, Mnuchin was quoted by Reuters as saying that “SWIFT is no different than any other entity,” adding “We have advised SWIFT that it must disconnect any Iranian financial institutions that we designate as soon as technologically feasible to avoid sanctions exposure.”

The Trump administration has been pressuring allies to cut Iranian oil imports to “zero” next month although on Friday the US agreed to grant exemptions to 8 countries that import Iran oil; the countries include Japan, India, and South Korea according to Bloomberg. China, the leading importers of Iranian oil remains in discussions with the US on terms but is among the eight, as is Turkey which will likely receive an exemption, the country’s energy minister said on Friday. The full list of countries receiving waivers will be released on Monday.

By cutting Iran off from SWIFT, Iran would lose its ability to be paid for its exports and to pay for imports. Washington has been pressuring SWIFT to cut Iran from the financial system as it did in 2012 before the nuclear deal. Six years ago the EU imposed sanctions on Iranian banks, forcing SWIFT, which is subject to EU laws, to cut financial transactions with at least 30 of Iran’s financial institutions, including the central bank.

Iranian banks were reconnected to the network in 2016 after the Iran nuclear deal came into force, allowing much needed foreign cash to flow into Tehran’s coffers.

While SWIFT (The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), which is a financial network that provides cross-border transfers for members across the world, is based in Belgium, its board includes executives from US banks with US federal law allowing the administration to act against banks and regulators across the globe. It supports most interbank messages, connecting over 11,000 financial institutions in more than 200 countries and territories.

Washington’s pressure has pushed Brussels to look at creating a SWIFT alternative. As we reported at the time, in August German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas called on the EU to set up an independent equivalent of the system. Later, EU Foreign Affairs Chief Federica Mogherini confirmed that the bloc’s signatories remain committed to the nuclear deal with Iran and are working to create special payment channels to do business with the Islamic Republic. That proposal stalled in Brussels and major European firms left Iran.

* * *

Whether with or without SWIFT’s involvement, Iranians are bracing for the full force of US sanctions due to hit on Monday. The new sanctions, which also aim to cut off Iran’s banking sector from the global market, are timed to coincide with the anniversary of the 1979 storming by Iranian revolutionaries of the US embassy in Tehran, when angry students took 52 American diplomats hostage for 444 days.

Iran has remained defiant, saying it is confident it can weather the impacts, and that the US will fail to bring down Iranian oil imports to zero.

On Friday, President Trump announced the reimposition of sanctions by tweeting on Friday a photograph of himself in the style of an advertisement for the Game of Thrones series, with the tagline: “Sanctions Are Coming, November 5” (much to the chagrin of HBO).

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The office of Iran’s Quds force commander, Qassem Soleimani, retaliated by posting a photo of himself in a similar style alongside the tagline: “I will stand against you.”

But ordinary people, wary of the fluctuations of the currency and the rising prices of goods, are anxious. On Sunday, a state-organised rally took place in front of the former US embassy compound in central Tehran to mark the anniversary. The crowd held placards reading “Down with USA”, and “Down with Israel”, while others set US and Israeli flags on fire.

“Never threaten the Iranian people,” Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of Iran’s elite revolutionary guards told people gathering in front of the former embassy, officially referred to as a “den of spies”. “Do not make military threats against us, and do not frighten us with military threats,” he added.

Iran is also relying on European support: as noted above, the EU has set up a mechanism – known as a special purpose vehicle (SPV) – to sidestep US sanctions and persuade an increasingly reluctant Iran to stay inside the deal in the hope of rescuing its economy. It is unclear if Europe will be willing to actually activate this “SWIFT-alternative”, however, in light of Mnuchin’s threats.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reacting to Trump’s threats on Saturday, said America’s power was in decline. “The US’s goal in imposing sanctions is to paralyze and prevent the growth of national economy; but it resulted in a movement towards self-sufficiency in Iran,” he said.

Inside Iran, however, people are on tenterhooks. Economic grievances were a trigger for a wave of nationwide protests in recent months over the scarcity of the US dollar, unpaid wages and rising prices. “Nov 5th isn’t the most pivotal moment in this saga,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group told the Guardian. “Paradoxically, if sanctions prove as effective as the White House is hoping for, they are bound to push Iran to either revive its nuclear program or become more aggressive in the region. Both will significantly increase the risks of a military confrontation.”

end

 

UK

Supposedly there has been a secret Brexit deal which involves keeping the current customs deal until a deal is finally settled.  The entire UK including Ireland will still be in on this format until separation is concluded…which may be never!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Theresa May’s “Secret” Brexit Deal Exposed After

Winning Major Concession From EU

After months of internecine squabbling between the different factions of Theresa May’s conservative party, it appears the prime minister might finally be close to securing a deal that stands a chance of winning parliamentary approval, thanks to a major concession from the European Union.

If a report in the Sunday Times is accurate, May has assembled a detailed “secret” Brexit plan that, among other details, would kill off the controversial Northern Ireland “backstop” that had become the main obstacle to further negotiations.

Working in secret, May has reportedly developed a detailed, 50-page plan for a Brexit treaty that will allow the entire UK to remain within the EU customs union – that is, until a final deal can be hammered out during the transitionary period, which Brexiteers fear could mean “forever”.

As part of the new “secret” deal, May has effectively scrapped most of her controversial four-page “Chequers plan”, and replaced most provisions governing the single market and customs union with an agreement to hash out a “Future Economic Partnership” – essentially an open-ended agreement to continue negotiations that leaves open the possibility of reaching a free trade deal like the one enjoyed by Canada, a provision that is bound to appease at least some of the Brexiteers. The word on the street in Westminster is that part of the plan “could have been written by Jacob Rees-Mogg,” the leader of the hardline Eurosceptics, which, if true, would signify a major victory for May.

In another major concession allowed by EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier last week, the EU is apparently prepared to accept that regulatory checks on British goods can be trusted to happen “in the market” – ie at the British factories where they are produced – instead of at border checkpoints.

May

Theresa May, looking positively overjoyed

May is hoping to discuss the plan with her cabinet on Tuesday, and hopes that it will receive enough support to at least warrant the EU calling for a special summit in late November to hammer out the final details.

If May manages to win the support of her cabinet, here’s what will happen next (summary courtesy of the Times):

  • The EU will write an all-UK customs deal into the legally binding withdrawal agreement so an EU-designed “backstop” treating Northern Ireland differently from the UK mainland is not required.
  • There will be an “exit clause” to convince Eurosceptics the UK will not be in it for ever.
  • The FEP will outline how a new trade deal would balance market access and border checks, making clear that a deal along the lines of the EU’s arrangement with Canada is still a possible outcome as is May’s Chequers plan for close alignment.

Of course, given how badly negotiations had deteriorated, May was effectively forced to take her negotiations covert to stop the non-believers from undermining her. But now that she has won these concessions from the EU, she is finally in a position to do some browbeating of her own.

Here’s how she’ll likely proceed with selling the plan (again, text courtesy of the Times):

  • Telling Brexiteer ministers that unless they support it, they will be personally responsible for causing a no-deal Brexit, which most regard as a potential disaster.
  • Telling remainers that May fought for the closest possible alignment until the last minute, but that the negotiations mean Britain will not be a full member of the customs union for ever.
  • Not admitting in public that she has ditched her Chequers blueprint, but signalling privately that she will allow a “pivot” towards a different “landing zone” for the final deal.

But given the amount of control they have exercised over the process thus far, the Brexiteer faction might be unwilling to relinquish their leverage and blindly accept the deal, thanks to fears that the final agreement (which still would need to be hammered out at the hoped-for November EU summit) might contain a well-hidden provision to keep Northern Ireland more closely tied to Brussels if the rest of the UK were to leave the customs union. One anonymous Whitehall source quoted by the Times spelled this out in no uncertain terms.

A senior Whitehall source added: “The PM will be able to say there’s no more backstop, we’ve got rid of that – success. It is UK-wide – success. There’s an exit mechanism – success. And you’ve got Canada. The small print is that Ireland is f**ked.”

Oddly enough since the negotiations for the deal were reportedly carried out in secret, the Brexiteers have already begun to flesh out a strategy for possibly countering it – or at least ensuring that they are not forced into going along with the deal by threats of a “no deal” Brexit, or, worse, cooperation with Labour.

In an editorial published in the Sunday Times, former Brexit Secretary David Davis demanded that May authorize her attorney general to release to parliament any legal advice prepared for May’s cabinet. Davis even went so far as to warn that, if May were to refuse, she would risk the same fate as Tony Blair, who famously refused to publish the advice of his attorney general about the legality of joining the US war in Iraq. When the advice leaked, revealing that the attorney general had doubts about the legality of the war effort, Blair’s reputation never recovered.

The upshot is that Brexiteers are looking for assurances that the UK’s stay within the customs union will be temporary, and that there will be no chance of the Brexit Treaty remaining intact after the transition period ends at the beginning of 2021.

“We need the cards laid on the table so that we can form a judgment. Is the future of the union at stake? Are we being hurtled towards a Hotel California Brexit where we can check out, but we can never leave?”

Though they’ve been subjected to a series of false dawns in recent weeks, cable traders still embraced the news, pushing GBP higher on the hope that a “no deal” Brexit might be averted.

GBP

While the EU held its ground on concessions like allowing all of the UK to remain in the customs union for months, the fact that Barnier & Co. finally caved isn’t all that surprising. After taking into account the massive headache that a ‘no deal’ Brexit would create for the EU economy (which is already being threatened by the potential for a debt crisis in Italy) as well as the UK Brexiteers’ willingness to blithely accept such an outcome, Barnier must have finally realized that only he had the power to make the difficult choices necessary to create a deal.

But then again, as we’ve seen time and time again with these seemingly interminable negotiations, no deal can safely be considered ‘done’ until all necessary approvals have been secured – a scenario that is still a long way off.

end

Frm my good friend J Johnson: on Italy:

Goldman Sachs has just downgraded on the Italy top retail banks.  The clock is ticking:

(courtesy J. Johnson)

 

Goldman Sachs just downgraded one of Italy’s top “retail” banks, all the while totally ignoring Monte dei Paschi and (the religious connections in) its history, continuing to cause more flux within the European market and the debt spread among the players. If that wasn’t not enough to shake the souls of the debt spreaders, the idea that Italy’s divorce proceedings are being watched with greater interests amongst those that no longer wish to be controlled by the foreign few, Luigi Di Maio, Italy’s leader of the Five Star Movement is quoted as saying “…If the (divorce) recipe works here, it will be said at a European level: we should apply the recipe of Italy to all other countries,”. We’ve suggested in the past, and it is still our belief, the entire Northern Mediterranean Nations combined, do not see this controlling system benefiting any of their people anymore and they are leaving.

 

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SAUDI ARABIA/YEMEN/USA

So much for Saudi Arabia listening to the USA.  They answer Pompeo’s call for a Yemen ceasefire by ramping up their airstrikes

(courtesy zerohedge)

Saudi Arabia Answers Pompeo’s Call For Yemen

Ceasefire By Ramping Up Airstrikes

The Saudi Air Force has unleashed a massive attack across the Sana’a Governorate over the last 48 hours, reports Middle East-based Al Masdar Newsciting Yemeni sources on the ground. This appears to be the Saudi response to the U.S. call for a ceasefire “in the next 30 days” announced by Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo a mere two days ago.

According to the reports from Sana’a, the Saudi Air Force heavily bombarded the capital city and its surroundings, hitting a number of sites that allegedly have a Houthi presence. The string of airstrikes also hit civilian neighborhoods, including the area around Sana’a International Airport — all resulting in an unknown number of casualties. Given the timing it appears the Saudis are ready to unleash as many bombs as possible ahead of a potential US negotiated ceasefire suggested by Pompeo and Mattis; or alternately it could be the Saudis are now quickly escalating the war further to ensure a ceasefire cannot be obtained.

This comes as the Trump administration has released early details of a UN-brokered peace plan aimed at ending the war in Yemen, beginning with a ceasefire within a month along with talks to be held in Sweden.

Past airstrikes on Yemen’s capital of Sana’a via ReutersPerhaps predictably, The Washington Post blames the rebels for not coming to the negotiating table, something which the Saudi coalition has certainly also refused to do over the past three years of war:

Friday’s assault comes two days after the United States called for a cease-fire and negotiations within 30 days to end the war. The fresh offensive could be designed to pressure the Houthis to come to the negotiating table, which the rebels have so far avoided.

Yemeni journalist Mohammed al-Qadhi described the significant uptick in fighing in a tweet Friday morning: “Fierce battles between forces backed by Saudi-led coalition and the Houthis have been going on for hours in the southern and eastern outlets of the Red Sea port city of Hodiedah, with huge blasts being heard and airstrikes,” he wrote.

This comes after both Mattis and Pompeo early this week for the first time called for a ceasefire to a war that the U.S. has had direct participation in as a key leader of the Saudi coalition, along with the UAE.

Mattis said at an event at the US Institute of Peace in Washington:

Thirty days from now we want to see everybody around a peace table based on a ceasefire, based on a pullback from the border and then based on ceasing dropping of bombs that will permit the (UN) special envoy, Martin Griffiths —  he’s very good, he knows what he’s doing —  to get them together in Sweden and end this war.

Pompeo followed by issuing a similar statement, saying, “The United States calls on all parties to support UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths in finding a peaceful solution to the conflict in Yemen.”

According to The Guardian:

The US defence secretary, James Mattis, told an audience in Washington that Saudi Arabia and its Emirati allies were ready for a deal and that the talks between the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi rebels were being arranged by the United Nations special envoy, Martin Griffiths.

When asked on Tuesday at a Pentagon press conference whether the Saudi murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi had anything to do with the new, unprecedented U.S. call for a ceasefire in Yemen, Secretary of Defense Mattis answered, “I’d separate it out from the Yemen situation. We will get to the bottom of it.” And yet it comes just as Washington and Riyadh’s relationship is under strain as international media scrutiny grows in the aftermath of the journalist’s October 2nd gruesome killing.

More pressure has also been put on Washington and Riyadh as the appalling extent of the humanitarian crisis in Yemen becomes clearer — or we should say that after Khashoggi’s killing the mainstream media actually decided to start looking into the clear war crimes committed there.

Meanwhile the Washington Post reports further the United Nations this month declared that as many as 14 million Yemenis — nearly half the population — are on the brink of famine. And another 3 million find themselves internally displaced while the bombs continue to fall.

END
In a Washington post Op Ed written by Erdogan, he writes that he knows the order to kill Khashoggi came from the highest level of the Saudi Government
(courtesy zerohedge)

In WaPo Op-Ed, Erdogan Says “We Know The Order To

Kill Khashoggi Came From Highest

Level Of Saudi Government”

With the Jamal Khashoggi grotesque murder by some 18 Saudi agents fading from the public’s attention, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took the opportunity to remind the world that he now has the upper hand in the Middle Eastern balance of power, and said that the order to kill the U.S.-based journalist and Saudi dissident came from the “highest levels” of the Saudi government.

We know that the perpetrators are among the 18 suspects detained in Saudi Arabia,” Erdogan wrote in a Washington Post op-ed published Friday afternoon. “We also know that those individuals came to carry out their orders: Kill Khashoggi and leave. Finally, we know that the order to kill Khashoggi came from the highest levels of the Saudi government.”

Some seem to hope this “problem” will go away in time. But we will keep asking those questions, which are crucial to the criminal investigation in Turkey, but also to Khashoggi’s family and loved ones.  A month after his killing, we still do not know where his body is. At the very least, he deserves a proper burial in line with Islamic customs. We owe it to his family and friends, including his former colleagues at The Post, to give them an opportunity to say their goodbyes and pay their respects to this honorable man. To ensure that the world will keep asking the same questions, we have shared the evidence with our friends and allies, including the United States.

“As responsible members of the international community, we must reveal the identities of the puppetmasters behind Khashoggi’s killing and discover those in whom Saudi officials — still trying to cover up the murder — have placed their trust,” he concluded.

Still, Erdogan admitted that who exactly “gave the order to kill this kind soul” was among a list of unanswered questions, and while Erdogan did not mention Prince Mohammed in his op-ed, he said that he does not think King Salman gave the order to kill Khashoggi.

“As we continue to look for answers, I would like to stress that Turkey and Saudi Arabia enjoy friendly relations,” he wrote. “I do not believe for a second that King Salman, the custodian of the holy mosques, ordered the hit on Khashoggi. Therefore, I have no reason to believe that his murder reflected Saudi Arabia’s official policy.”

Erdogan also took an indirect jab at Saudi Arabia, the puppetmaster behind the Sept 11 attack, for its involvement in the biggest terrorist attack on US soil, saying that “the murder of Jamal Khashoggi involves a lot more than a group of security officials, just as the Watergate scandal was bigger than a break-in and the 9/11 terror attacks went beyond the hijackers.”

After first claiming Khashoggi – a Washington Post columnist critical of the Saudi government who was killed Oct. 2 – left the consulate alive, Saudi officials acknowledged on Oct. 19 that he was killed. At that point, the Saudi government said he was intentionally killed in a physical altercation in an unapproved operation to return to him to Saudi Arabia. Days later, a Saudi prosecutor acknowledged the killing was premeditated.

A Turkish prosecutor said this week that Khashoggi was strangled soon after entering the consulate and that his body was then dismembered and dissolved in acid.

Meanwhile, Mohammed bin Salman, whose name was not mentioned in Erdogan’s op-ed but whose picture captioned “Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia at the Pentagon in March” graces the headline, denied any foreknowledge of the plot, but skeptics in the United States and elsewhere are doubtful it could have been carried out without the approval of the kingdom’s day-to-day leader.

Erdogan also said several question remain about the killing, including where his body is and who the supposed “local collaborator” is who the Saudis say was given Khashoggi’s remains.

“Unfortunately, the Saudi authorities have refused to answer those questions,” Erdogan wrote. “Some seem to hope this ‘problem’ will go away in time. But we will keep asking those questions, which are crucial to the criminal investigation in Turkey, but also to Khashoggi’s family and loved ones.”

The president added that Turkey has shared evidence with allies including the United States “to ensure that the world will keep asking the same questions” and warned against committing similar acts on NATO soil again.

The full Washington Post Op-Ed can be read here.

END

Iran reacts to the sanctions and the threat of cutting off countries from the SWIFT system if they engage with them: hardline cleric threatens to seize tankers in the  Strait of Hormuz.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran’s Powerful Hardline Cleric Threatens To “Instantly” Create $400 Oil By Seizing Tankers

Just ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iran set to snap back on Monday targeting primarily the energy, shipbuilding, shipping, and banking sectors, Iran’s most prominent conservative cleric has announced that if oil exports are halted, Saudi tankers will be confiscated and Gulf countries attacked.

Powerful Shia cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda is the Friday Prayer leader in Mashhad, considered Iran’s spiritual capital and among the holiest places in Shia Islam, and sits on the government’s “Assembly of Experts” but has no formal government role or decision-making ability. However, he’s a powerful leader and chief spiritual force behind Iran’s conservative faction who has long been at odds with President Hassan Rouhani.

Iranian opposition sources report that Alamolhoda told his followers during his Friday prayer sermon:

If we reach a point that our oil is not exported, the Strait of Hormuz will be mined. Saudi oil tankers will be seized and regional countries will be leveled with Iranian missiles.

Prominent hardline cleric Ahmad Alamolhoda

The cleric is further reported to have declared that Iran has the power to “instantly” create conditions for $400 a barrel oil prices if it decides to act in the Persian Gulf.

He said as reported in regional opposition media:

If Iran decides, a single drop of this region’s oil will not be exported and in 90 minutes all Persian Gulf countries will be destroyed. The UAE and Saudi Arabia will be destroyed in 60 minutes. After 90 minutes the U.S. will have nothing in this country. And we haven’t even started with Israel. Beware of the day we go after Israel, too. That’s why they want us to round up our missiles.

Though the hardline cleric’s rhetoric is often of this fiery tone and threat-laden in nature, it articulates the position of conservative critics who’ve long pointed out that President Rouhani’s risk of entering a deal with the West (the 2015 JCPOA) has utterly failed.

Meanwhile, with less than 24 hours to go before the next and fiercest round of sanctions come back into force, thousands of demonstrators appeared on the streets of Iran holding anti-American banners and chanting “down with the US”. Iranian media reported that similar demonstrations were held in multiple cities across the country.

Weekend protests in Tehran marking the anniversary of the US embassy takeover, via AFP

November 4 marks 39 years since the 1979 US embassy takeover after which the Shia Islamic revolution held 52 American staff and Marines hostage for 444 days. In the streets of Iran people could be seen burning effigies of Trump, and torching American and Israeli flags, and even burning dollars.

White House officials have openly declared that Washington is waging “economic war” against Iran, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo saying on Friday“The administration’s efforts to change Iranian behavior are far broader, far deeper.” Hinting that it’s part of a broader package that includes covert regime change efforts, he said further, “There are many other lines of effort,” and added, “We’re simply focused on this line of effort today because of the significance of November 5th.”

It will be interesting to see if economic war quickly escalates into a confrontation in the Persian Gulf, something Iran’s IRGC has said could be coming many times before. However, as Tehran tries to cling to a lifeline in the form of European countries willing to find ways to circumvent the U.S.-led sanctions, it is unlikely that the Rouhani government would ever give the order – yet those IRGC operatives loyal to the hardline clerics might.

END
The sanctions began at midnight last night:  Eight temporary waivers will be announce shortly
(courtesy zerohedge)

US Reinstates Sanctions On Iran; Eight Waivers To Be Announced Shortly

Roughly six months after President Trump declared his intentions to reimpose sanctions on Iran over vague allegations that the Iranians hadn’t fulfilled their obligations under the JCPOA (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, otherwise known as the Iran deal), the US formally reimposed sanctions on Iran at midnight.

The sanctions will impact more than 700 “individuals, entities, vessels and aircraft”, according to the White House. These include Iranian banks, oil companies and shipping firms. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said the US is “intent on ensuring that global funds stop flowing to the coffers of the Iranian regime,” while the White House has said it’s “open” to renegotiating a deal. Meanwhile, the administration has opted to allow Iran to remain connected to US-dominated international payments network SWIFT – for now, at least.

Iran

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo is scheduled to announce the list of eight countries that will get temporary waivers to keep importing Iranian oil at 8:30 a.m. Washington time on Monday. Japan, India and South Korea are among the countries expected to receive a waiver.

The waivers prompted conservative U.S. critics of the administration’s approach – including Republican Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz – to say the White House was caving in on its tough line and to vow legislation to close what they consider loopholes.

Here’s a roundup of which countries are expected to receive waivers (text courtesy of Reuters):

  • South Korea said on Monday it had been granted a waiver to continue at least temporarily importing condensate from Iran and running financial transactions with the Middle Eastern country. Condensate – a super-light crude oil – is a critical feedstock for South Korea’s petrochemical industry. South Korea, a U.S. ally and one of Asia’s biggest buyers of Iranian oil, asked Washington for “maximum flexibility” last week, after some of its construction firms canceled energy-related contracts in the Islamic Republic due to financing difficulties.
  • Japan said on Monday it was in close communication with the United States on the measures, although Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga declined to provide details.
  • India’s oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan confirmed on Saturday that the country, Iran’s top oil client after China, had won a waiver from the U.S. sanctions after a ‘forceful campaign’ by prime minister Narendra Modi. India hopes to continue to buy about 1.25 million tonnes of oil a month until the end of the fiscal year to March 31, unchanged from November’s level, a government official said.
  • China is also seeking waivers, although it remained unclear on Monday what volumes, if any, it would be allowed to purchase. The Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated its objections to sanctions, but would not directly say whether China had been granted an exemption.
  • Turkish Trade Minister Ruhsar Pekcan said on Saturday that Turkey had received indications that it would be among the countries granted a waiver, but was still awaiting clarification on Monday.

Though while some have characterized the Trump administration’s decision to grant these waivers as a capitulation, for now at least, Trump is having his cake while eating it, too. Oil prices have reversed their ‘panic’ rally, with Brent crude falling 15% off the highs, while Iran’s economy remains stuck in a devastating rut (the country’s currency, the Iranian rial, has shed more than 70% of its value against the dollar this year).

Though Iran has pledged to ignore the sanctions, their impact is already apparent: Iranian crude exports peaked at 2.8 million barrels per day in April, including 300,000 barrels per day of condensate, but have fallen to 1.8 million barrels per day since then.

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

This gives you an idea as to what is going on with respect to global trade:  it is sinking!  Baltic dry index again falls badly

(courtesy G./zerohedge)

Global Shipping Rates Sink As Trade Runs Aground 

(courtesy Gijsbert Groenewegen LLDSilverarrowpartners/zerohedge)

The Baltic Dry Index, a composite of the Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Timecharter Averages, hit a one-month low this week, pulled down by weaker demand for Capesize vessels. The shipping index is widely viewed as a proxy for dry bulk shipping stocks as well as a general shipping market barometer.

Baltic Dry Index quote (data via Reuters Eikon) 

In August, we first reported that freight data via Goldman identified global trade momentum was slowing since 4Q17, and that July readings suggested an alarming continuation, and in some cases acceleration, of this trend.

The deceleration in shipping rates has closely tracked a tightening in global financial conditions, particularly evident in EM data, which in turn has largely been a manifestation of the ongoing escalation in trade tensions between the US and China.

Now, fresh evidence from Reuters shows the cost of chartering commercial ships has collapsed even further. More specific, rates for container ships have sunk 24% from a multi-year peak while raw material vessel rates have fallen 10% from a five-year high, adding to the mounting evidence that slowing global trade could soon usher in a worldwide recession around 2020.

Container Rates Collapse 

At the heart of the supply chain, dry-bulk vessels transport raw materials like grains, coal, ore, and cement while container ships complete the cycle by carrying finished goods from factories to consumers.

Around April, dry-bulk and container rates rocketed to multi-year highs as manufacturers pulled forward consumption to get ahead of the tariffs. The rates peaked in August and started a declined that found a bottom in September/October.

Baltic Exchange Indices Performance

“The flattening out of the Baltic dry index, corroborated by the container index as well, points to a slowing down of the global economy for sure,” Ashok Sharma, managing director of shipbroker BRS Baxi in Singapore, told Reuters.

Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC in Hong Kong, said: “global trade is cooling off after a strong run over the last couple of years.”

Neumann said demand issues in Europe and China, emerging market stress, as well as trade war escalation, were all significant factors into the slowdown.

He then warned: “their [tariffs] full effect hasn’t kicked in yet.”

The Harper Petersen Charter Rate Index, which is published on a weekly basis, tracks rate levels in US Dollars of container ships, had dropped by about 25% from June when it was at a seven-year high to 516 points.

The Freightos Baltic Index, a global container index launched in Singapore in 2017, climbed to a record high in August but has since declined 5.4% to 1,583.

Shipping analysts told Reuters that declining container market rates tend to reflect changes in developed economies while emerging countries more influence bulk shipping markets.

“Now that the trade war is escalating… I have no doubt that this does have a negative impact on containerized trades,” said Ralph Leszczynski, head of research at shipbroker Banchero Costa in Singapore.

Leszczynski said the reversal in dry-bulk rates was partly due to damaging trends in emerging markets, where local currencies in India, Turkey, Brazil, Pakistan, and Indonesia have severely weakened against the US dollar this year, reducing their ability to import.

The most important take away from the report is the idea that developed world economies are slowing. The decline in container rates shows that, and it seems the worst has yet to come. Storm clouds are gathering for 2019, as President Trump’s trade war has entered the point of no return, the damage has been done, prepare for a global slowdown.

end

We have been following this development for quite some time.  Now our good friends over in Turkey are blaming Greece, Israel and Egypt for the Khashoggi murder plot

(courtesy zerohedge)

Paranoid Turkey Claims “Greece, Israel, & Egypt Are Part Of Khashoggi’s Murder Plot”

As we noted previouslythe conflict over gas in the eastern Mediterranean is intensifying.

The dispute concerns gas blocks, with Turkey furious about the energy cooperation of these Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt in the East Mediterranean Sea. While Turkish warships have been active, it appears Turkey is taking a new approach to this hybrid war.

As KeepTalkingGreece.com reports, a new Turkish narrative, based on paranoia and conspiracy theories, has been launched claiming that Greece, Israel and Egypt are part of the murder plot of Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi, presumably in an effort to garner global opinion against their energy-hording neighbors.

This unbelievable allegation has been claimed by Erdogan’s close aide Yigit Bulut, who is famous for his delirium and ravings, during an appearance on state television of Turkey.

“Greece, Israel and Egypt are part of murder plot involving slain Saudi Arabia journalist Khashoggi in Istanbul,” Yigit Bulut said in TRT Television, where he is a frequent guest.

Abdullah Bozkurt@abdbozkurt

#Greece #Israel and #Egypt are part of murder plot involving slain Saudi Arabia journalists #Khashoggi in Istanbul, #Turkey, claims Turkish president chief aide Yigit Bulut in a government TV network.

Enlisting the ‘good old traditional perception’ that Turkey is surrounded by enemies, KeepTalkingGreece notes that Bulut said:

“a belt extending from Europe to Israel has always harbored hostility towards Turkey they never wanted Turks in this region. Europe even made Turks to fight unnecessary wars against Russia.”

It is worth noting that Russia and Turkey have come closer recently due to Syria, a cooperation sealed with armament sales to Ankara triggering the anger of US and the NATO of which Turkey is a member.

Bulut vowed that Turkey will continue oil and gas exploration in the East Mediterranean off-shore Cyprus.

7  OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS

INDIA

It seems that the Modi government is also having problems with Patel, chief honcho of the Central bank Of India.  The fallout from the largest shadow banking operation IL & FS is certainly having a toll on operations inside India

(courtesy Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investments Partners)

If You Think Trump And Powell Aren’t Getting Along…

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

If you think President Trump is upset with Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, you should see what’s going on in India. Central bankers had been every government’s close friend for years; a decade even. The relationships were beyond chummy, particularly as many governments celebrated their central bank heroes for heroically heroic actions saving the world from something like a repeat of 1929.

While conventional perceptions were shaped by things like QE and low rates, reality, of course, has been much different. Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson recently said people like Ben Bernanke saved us all from that other disastrous fate. Except the US economy is about to complete an entire decade where it has underperformed the Great Depression.

It’s the one headline you won’t see anywhere, especially not on a perfect Payroll Friday.

What that has meant for more than the US economy is often massive distance between broad categorized perception and experience. Central bankers say one thing and most of the time people believe them even if it doesn’t seem consistence with their own experience; even former President Obama is desperate to claim credit for this economic boom current President Trump is constantly talking about.

And yet, Trump is acting up about Jay Powell. It doesn’t follow, unless you realize the danger of a boom that never boomed.

It’s that way in India, too, only things have already descended to the extreme. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), that country’s central bank, has been operating a relatively constant monetary policy. Up until recently, however, that caused no disturbance nor disagreement. In other words, something has really changed.

India’s Finance Ministry has threatened just this week to invoke banking law if RBI doesn’t give in to demands from the Modi government. Unlike Western central banks, India’s is independent only by tradition. In statute, the RBI operates at the pleasure of the government. Section 7 of the central bank act hands authorities broad powers should central bankers act outside of established policy agreements.

These had been mostly informal up until the last two months. Again, the central bank was largely left alone because neither the Modi government nor Manmohan Singh’s regime before saw anything wrong with it. Any disagreements were minor and kept inhouse.

Not so any longer. There were media reports RBI Governor Urjit Patel had offered to resign earlier this week.

Modi’s complaints about “his” central bank run both to the familiar as well as the far more devastating. The Prime Minister has, like US President Trump, taken to criticizing “high” interest rates – even though RBI has raised its benchmark policy rate only twice in recent months and refrained from doing so at its most recent meeting. This comes after the central bank had been reducing them for two and a half years.

RBI’s rate which had been 8% was trimmed to 6% by the end of 2017. On October 5, the central bank abstained on a third rate hike which would have pushed it back up to 6.75%. It remains at 6.5% instead, hardly a serious measure for disruption and political turmoil.

This is scapegoating, pure and simple. Rate hikes are not what has changed the landscape in India. This is (thanks T. Tatteo):

The government wants the RBI to provide more liquidity to the shadow banking sector, which has been hurt by the defaults of major financing company, Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS). Those defaults triggered sell-off in bonds and stocks of non-banking financial companies. The government has been asking the RBI for a dedicated liquidity window for these lenders similar to one allowed during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

Modi wants the RBI to repeat its 2008 measures. It sounds sort of serious, right? Enough to trigger a government/central bank crisis. 

These shadow troubles aren’t starting from rupee markets, a key distinction (like in 2008). I wrote on October 2, the day before the WTI curve shipped off toward contango:

For one, IL&FS is being characterized as a shadow bank and that’s the right way to think about them. As is the company’s very heavy dependence upon, you guessed it, Eurobond financing. Things started to go south even before India’s currency plunged along with all the rest. The rupee’s descent is merely the wrong side of “dollar” tightening.

The mechanics of oil are related to the eurodollar conditions for India and beyond. If India has gotten itself into a world of hurt, where is oil demand going to come from? That country was one of the last remaining places on earth, EM or not, where fast growth wasn’t just fairy tale talk. India has been, hands down, the best performing of the EM group.

Textbook deflationary disruption.

In other words, if the world economy loses India, too, placing that place alongside China in the eurodollar destructive column, WTI contango makes perfect sense having nothing to do with a supply glut. Eurodollar consistency in each market, foreign and domestic.

Modi’s sudden change of heart about Patel really has nothing to do with interest rate hikes. Makes you wonder about Trump’s similar reassessment of Powell.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1371 DOWN .0013 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.24  UP 0.079  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2991 UP   0.0036  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3098  DOWN .0002 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 13 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1371; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 11.04 POINTS OR 0.41%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 551.96 POINTS OR 2,02% 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.52% /EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 334.67 POINTS OR 1.55%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 551.96 POINTS OR 2.02% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.04POINTS OR 0.41%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.52%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 334.67 POINTS OR 1.55%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1231.55.

silver:$14.72

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.20% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.45 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.58 UP 3  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.88% DOWN 0    in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.13%  UP 0  BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.57% DOWN 1 IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.33 UP 1   POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 176 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.43%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1478 UP .0024 or 24 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113.12 UP .391 OR 39 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3024 UP .0087( POUND UP 87 BASIS POINTS)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 24 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.14078

The Yen FELL to 113.205 for a LOSS of 4 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 87 basis points, trading at 1.3042/

The Canadian dollar LOST 8 basis points to 1.3108

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9257-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9129(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2138

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.13%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 3.20 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.43 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.34 DOWN 20 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 9.72 POINTS OR 0.14%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 24.03 POINTS  OR 0.21%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 0.74 POINTS OR 0.01%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 17.70 POINTS OR 0.20%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN:  109.31 POINTS OR 0.86%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 62.78 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 72.74 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.06  THE CROSS LOWER BY .12 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 12 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.3138 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.43 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:62.78

 

BRENT:72..76

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.20%..deadly….

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.43%/..deadly…

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.14078 ( up 24 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.20 UP .040 (YEN DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.54 DOWN 20 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3042 UP 87 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3138

the Russian rouble:  66.06 UP 0.12 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 12 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3108 UP 0 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9257  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9129 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.44%

 

The Dow closed  UP 190.87 POINTS OR 0.28%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 28,14  points or 0% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.86  CLOSED UP  0.35

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.592%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/HUGE jump today

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Midterm-Mania Sparks Chaos In Quiet Markets

This just seemed appropriate…

 

China:

China was mixed overnight despite extremely weak PMIs, thanks to an incessant bid in the afternoon session…

 

And European markets went sideways all day…

 

US Markets saw low volumes – over 20% below average…

 

Futures show the quiet overnight session… and a panic-bid spiked stocks at 1415ET after Rasmussen polls showed the GOP retaining the House…

 

Cash markets show that Small Caps and Trannies got back to even, Nasdaq almost made it but Dow and S&P led the way today…

 

The surge in buying was very evident in TICK…

 

Also of note, after a few weeks of incessant huge gap opens, the last few days have seen negligible overnight moves…

 

The Dow made it back to its 100DMA, bouncing almost perfectly off its 200DMA (rest of the majors remain well below 200DMA)…

 

FANG stocks suffered again early but were panic-bid after the Rasmussen headlines…

 

But, despite the surge in market, AAPL was the big loser, and remains well below its 100DMA…

 

As AAPL Catches down to its FANG friends freefall…

And also  note that AAPL never caught a bid when the markets ramped on the poll headlines…

 

Despite broad market gains (yes, Nasdaq was lower), bonds were also bid with 30Y outperforming

 

The Dollar faded after overnight gains, completing the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern…

 

Yuan was weak overnight after dismal PMI data…

 

Cryptos were higher on the day with Bitcoin Cash surging 20% from Friday’s ‘close’…

 

Despite dollar weakness, it appears the China headlines weiughed on copper and gold and silver slipped lower…

 

As Trump unleashed Sanctions on Iran, WTI crude jumped and then dumped back below a $63 handle…

 

Gold in Yuan remains glued around 8500…

 

Finally, we note that the exodus in so-called ‘Smart’ money continues to accelerate…

 

And VIX’s term structure remains inverted for the 21st day straight…the longest streak since Sept 2011…

 

 

market trading

Stocks Surge After Latest Poll Shows GOP Retaining The House

US equity markets ramped into the green (even Nadaq recovered from its AAPL-beating) as the final Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot before Election Day shows Republicans edging ahead by one point

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided

A week ago, Democrats held a 47% to 44% lead.

And stocks are reassured…

 

 

 

market data/

As promised, the USA must sell record debt this week and all future weeks as they will need at at least 1.8 trillion dollars worth of issuance.  Interest rates are now rising on the long term bond because of this.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Treasury To Sell Record Debt This Week With Yields On Verge Of Breakout

As previewed on Halloween, when we broke down the Treasury’s latest quarterly refunding, the US Treasury is set for a record round of Treasury note and bond auctions, selling a whopping $83 billion, up from $78 billion three months ago, and surpassing the prior all time refunding total set by Tim Geithner back in 2009.

The total consists of $37BN in 3-Year, $27BN in 10-Year and $19BN in 30 Year Notes and Bonds.

But before that, the week starts off in a frenzy of sales as the Treasury sells three- and six-month bills on Monday and four-, eight- and 52-week Bills ahead of a week crowded with the U.S. midterm elections, FOMC meeting and coupon auctions. Specifically, the Treasury will auction $45b of three-month and $39BN of six-month bills at 11:30am ET on Monday; followed by $26BN of 52-week debt on Tuesday, while the sizes of four- and eight-week offerings will be unveiled at 11am ET on Monday.

As we noted previously, the ballooning budget shortfall, fueled by Trump’s tax cuts, spending hikes and an aging population, will result in a massive $1.34 trillion in total bond sales this calendar year.

The need for the Treasury to raise auction sizes for a fourth straight quarter is also partially driven by the Federal Reserve’s decision not to replace some of its Treasury holdings when they mature as it winds down crisis-era stimulus measures.

The rising US funding need has not been lost on market, which after last week’s stronger than expected wage growth, ten-year rates reached 3.22%, closing in on the seven-year high of 3.26% set last month.

The market will be closely watching what happens with yields today as any new breakout in yields, and a sharp steepening in the curve will likely lead to further weakness among risk assets.

“It’s a sell-strength market in bonds,” said Brian Edmonds, head of interest-rate trading at Cantor Fitzgerald. “We know we are pushing up the size of every auction. So that all matters.”

Meanwhile, the Fed’s Nov. 8 rate decision could result in even higher rates as the market expects Powell not to disclose anything material on Thursday: “The Fed could mail this one in because the market’s not expecting them to do anything magical at this meeting,” said Jim Caron, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. However, that doesn’t mean Caron is complacent: “Given that the market expectation for this meeting is so sanguine, it’s a very low bar for the Fed to surprise, and they have many avenues to surprise us,” he said.

Quoted by Bloomberg, Caron is primarily interested in any hints from the Fed on its plans to wind down its $4.2 trillion balance sheet. A faster-than-anticipated reduction in its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage debt could drive yields higher. In the government-bond market, this would compound the pressure of increased issuance as the Treasury seeks to plug a deficit that’s headed toward $1 trillion.

Still, according to Caron the Fed will likely play it safe since its statement won’t be accompanied by a press conference. This will be the last such Fed meeting. The Fed chief will face the media in December and after every policy decision starting in January.

end
A joke!! the USA economy slides or rebounds as two conflicting surveys signal opposite results.
(courtesy zero hedge)

US Services Economy Slides (Or Rebounds) As Surveys Signal Nothing But Confusion

After Manufacturing data showed a jump (Markit) or dump (ISM), US Services data was expected to rebound (Markit) or relapse (ISM) in October.

To summarize the divergences

  • Markit’s Manufacturing PMI printed higher at 55.7 (marginally higher than September’s 55.6 but below the October flash print of 55.9)
  • ISM Manufacturing printed dramatically lower at 57.7 (well below expectations of 59.0 and down from September’s 59.8)
  • Markit’s Services PMI printed higher at 54.8 (solid rebound from September’s 53.5, 8-mo lows and above the flash October print)
  • ISM Services printed lower at 60.3 (well above the 59.0 expectations but down from the 61.6 record high in September)

In pictures – it seems the people who Markit is surveying are considerably more optimistic than the ones ISM is interviewing…

 

Under the covers of ISM Services data we see that employment, new orders and prices are all down…

All of which are odd given that Markit sees higher prices, better employment, and high expectations for new business…

Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

A rebound from a weather-torn September and strong demand propelled service sector growth in October. Combined with the steady output growth being recorded in the manufacturing sector, the survey data suggest the economy grew at its fastest rate since July.

Expectations of future business growth spiked higher, suggesting companies are expecting a strong end to the year for the economy.

Average selling prices for goods and services rose at a rate only marginally below September’s tenyear survey record high, however, indicating that intensifying inflationary pressures remain a key concern.

Price rises often reflected the need to pass higher costs on to customers, in turn often linked to tariffs, upward wage growth and higher interest rates. Consumer price inflation therefore looks set to remain elevated.”

Finally, Williamson signals silver linings ahead…

“Comparisons with GDP indicate that the latest survey data translate into an annualised rate of economic growth of around 2.5%, representing a solid start to the fourth quarter.”

end

USA economic/general stories
Brandon Smith looks at 3 events which could change the face of America:
1. the Killing of Khashoggi and our relationship with the Saudis
2 the illegal immigration coming from the south
3. Trump’s war with the Fed,,
a must read….
(courtesy Brandon Smith/Alt-Market)

Three Events That Could Change The Face Of America

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

The past year in general has been a firestorm of news events, many of them misrepresented by the mainstream media but nevertheless important signals that the economic, social and geopolitical systems we are familiar with are changing or destabilizing rapidly.  It is important to understand, however, that the implications of these events have been building for YEARS, not for mere weeks or months. They are not sudden and inexplicable consequences of “linchpin theory”, the outcome of these events was pre-planned and engineered far in advance.

 

This does not mean that establishment interests including globalists will necessarily get what they want.  Which is why I believe they intend to produce multiple crises at once, hoping that at least a few will produce the effects they desire in the population.  I call it the “scattershot strategy”; by creating a swarm of manipulated “bullets” of social/psychological leverage each with the same intended target, the result becomes more certain and predictable.  Much like smashing troops into the same point in a line of defense over and over again – eventually it is more likely to break where you expect it to break.

Some of these scattershot events are a little more obvious than others, at least in terms of how they are handled.  Not all of them are started by the globalists, but all of them are certainly seen as opportunities for exploitation.  Here are three of the latest events that I believe represent a dire end-game if the public is not made aware that their reactions to the events are just as important if not more important as the events themselves.

1. The Murder Of Jamal Khashoggi

Few of us had ever heard of Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi a month ago, and most in the public still have no clue as to the implications of his death.  I’m not going to theorize much on the reasons why the Saudi government apparently trapped Kashoggi in their consulate in Istanbul, Turkey and then allegedly tortured him to death.  The mainstream theory is that this was punishment for the journalist’s escape from Saudi Arabia and subsequent criticisms of Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the rising dictator within the Saudi regime.

Why did Khashoggi willingly and stupidly enter a Saudi consulate, considered sovereign Saudi soil, when he knew he was a potential target for the government?  Why would Saudi agents murder the journalist in such an obvious way and in such an obvious place?  If he was such a threat, why not kill him away from a Saudi facility?  Why not make it look like a robbery or an accident?

It seems to me that normal procedures for assassination were not followed in the slightest when it came to Jamal Kashoggi.  And, as Turkish authorities released information on Saudi involvement, the normal attempts at cover-up by multiple governments were missing.  This story could have been muddled in a fog of disinformation leading away from Saudi Arabia, but it wasn’t.

The consequences are immense.  The end of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia could result on the part of Western nations.  There is even talk of Prince Salman being removed from power and his “Vision for 2030” economic plan going the way of the dodo.  I see this as highly unlikely, though.

While the mainstream misrepresents Salman’s economic plan as a means to make Saudi Arabia less dependent on oil, the Vision for 2030 was primarily about distancing Saudi Arabian oil from dependency on U.S. and Western markets.

The decoupling of the U.S. from Saudi Arabia has been in the making for years.  This is not something new, or something that would be decided by the killing of a single Saudi journalist.  From the passage of a bill by Congress to make the Saudi government liable for damages during the 9/11 attacks, to Saudi threats to dump $750 billion in U.S. assets (under the Obama Administration), to the Saudi atrocities in Yemen, to the rise of Mohammad bin Salman through extortion, there is no shortage of reasons why the U.S. and Saudi Arabia might end relations.

I am of course talking about mainstream narrative, here.  The deeper issue at hand is that globalists are seeking an end to the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency and the petro-currency, and Saudi Arabia is a key catalyst to breaking the dollar’s back in a way that makes it appear as though global banks had nothing to do with the situation.

As I have been pointing out for quite some time, Mohammad bin Salman’s Vision for 2030 is not his vision; it is part of a larger globalist dynamic for a completely centralized world monetary system and economy.  Salman’s Vision for 2030 is bankrolled through his Public Investment Fund (PIF) by well know n globalist institutions like the Carlyle Group, Goldman Sachs, Blackstone and Blackrock.

Saudi separation from the U.S. has been ongoing, including far reaching oil trade deals with China and Russia , two countries seeking to remove the dollar in bilateral trade.  The moral question of trade relations with a tyranny like Saudi Arabia is not what I am questioning here.  I am simply pointing out the US dollar’s dependency on petro-status, which is tied inexorably to Saudi oil.

The path has already been set.  The murder of Khashoggi and its exposure does not hurt globalist intentions, it actually HELPS them by creating a narrative in which the Saudi move away from the U.S. becomes a product of “random chaos” rather than part of a “vision” funded by globalists.  If Prince Salman is removed from the equation (an action I am doubtful will take place), the “Vision for 2030” will continue.

Even with Donald Trump’s apparent apprehension to break aggressively from the Saudis over the issue, Congress has already suggested they will move ahead with actions against the vital oil nation without the White House.

Is this to say that Khashoggi was killed in order to create a geopolitical linchpin to aid globalist schemes for de-dollerization?  No.  Khashoggi is not that important.  But this is certainly an event that the globalists and the media they control seem intent on exploiting, adding weight to a long running plan to divide the US from its key oil partner and thus ending the petro-dollar without any links back to them.

2, The Immigrant Caravan

Illegal immigration is a pillar issue within U.S. politics, at least in terms of conservatives and their support far any particular piece of legislation or government action.  My position is the conservative one because it is the logical one – I am not against immigration as long as it is done legally.  Open border policies are a travesty that create an influx of people who do not necessarily share the values set forth in the American Constitution.  We have already seen the economic and social disasters that have befallen Europe due to their open border policies, and it would be foolish to repeat that process here.  No foreign person has a “right” to access to the U.S., just as no American has a right to access to any other country.

Now comes the part of this issue that conservatives might not want to hear.

Is illegal immigration a form of invasion?  I would say yes, especially if it is being encouraged or funded by globalist interests. That said, we must be careful not to respond to this invasion as if it is a military one.  It isn’t.

Why?  Because military invasions require military responses, and military responses invariably lead to more power for governments.  Troops on the southern border of the U.S. might sound rational given the circumstances, but I would remind liberty movement activists of a little program they should all be familiar with:  Rex 84 and Operation Garden Plot.

As I warned in my article ‘How A Collapse In South America Could Trigger Martial Law In The U.S.‘, published in 2016, the globalists have long been planning a potential trigger for martial law measures in America using a southern border “invasion” as a rationale.  The exposure of Rex 84 came unexpectedly during the Iran/Contra hearings, and the documents are available to read here.

Rex 84 mentions the use of facilities, or detention camps, as a means to control the hypothetical border invasion.  This led to the long running “conspiracy theory” of so-called FEMA camps.  The pre-existence of FEMA camps is not an issue I delve into (as we saw during Katrina, a sports stadium could easily be turned into a FEMA camp in a matter of days).  That said, the posture of the Trump Administration at this time due to the coming migrant caravan reminds me in a disturbing way to the script outlined in Rex 84.

How far will Trump go to secure the border?  Will he declare martial law on the border as he seems ready to do?  Would it stop at the border, or would it spread like a cancer?  After all, once martial law is used to deal with unruly migrants, why not use it to deal with unruly leftists?  Will conservatives go against their constitutional principles and support such a policy?

There is a good reason why the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 was passed.  Originally, it prevented the use of military as law enforcement within the US unless an act of Congress bid otherwise.  Of course, George W. Bush and the Neo-cons changed all that with the John Warner Defense Authorization Act, an act that was barely covered by the mainstream media at the time, and which gives the President full power to declare martial law unilaterally.

Some people may argue that Posse Comitatus is an outdated concept and that other protections are in place to prevent a totalitarian outcome.  But are there really any protections?

As Gen. Wesley Clark once publicly proclaimed in an MSNBC interview, internment camps could be used in the U.S. for anyone considered “disloyal to the U.S.”  Trump has recently announced a plan for “tent cities” for incoming migrants, which, again, sounds a lot like the plan described in Rex 84.

Where would the dominoes stop once they start to fall?  I suggest that they will not stop.  I suggest that if we support martial law measures on the southern border rather than revamping existing border patrol agencies and building that wall that Trump was so fond of promising, the end result will be martial law measures applied to the rest of us as outlined in Rex 84.

3. Trump’s War With The Federal Reserve

I predicted Trump’s eventual war with the Fed over a year ago, and I have written on the dangers if such a war recently, so I will not go into as much detail on this event.  I will say that like the immigrant caravan, this is another issue in which conservatives could be tricked into reactingwithout thinking of the long game.

In my article ‘The Economic End Game Explained‘, I outline the strategy being used by globalists to diminish the U.S. economy as a means to open the door to mass support for a global monetary system controlled by the IMF and possibly the BIS.  This is a strategy they have openly discussed in their own publications.

To be clear, the Fed has indeed acted as a destructive force within the U.S. economy.  Fed officials have openly admitted on numerous occasions to creating and then bursting financial bubbles that have led to disastrous results for the American public.  Jerome Powell, the current Fed chairman, warned in 2012 of the eventual and pervasive market crash that would occur if the Fed raised interest and cut balance sheet assets while markets were still addicted to easy credit.  Now, he is enacting those exact policies knowing what will happen.

While I fully support the dismantling of the Federal Reserve as a saboteur of the U.S. economy, what I am concerned about is who will rebuild the U.S. system afterwards?  A White House war on the Fed will help cause the death of the dollar’s world reserve status.  This is a guarantee.  Our economy is utterly dependent on this status for it’s continued stability.

You see, the globalists have created a Catch-22; if conservatives do not shut down the Fed, the Fed will continue raising rates and cutting its balance sheet into economic weakness just as they historically always have.  The “everything bubble” will burst and a collapse will result.  If we shut down the Fed our currency will lose reserve status and dollars held overseas will come flooding back into the U.S. through various channels causing hyperinflation (among other things).  A collapse is unavoidable.

Again, who will be in charge of the rebuilding?  Will it be the American public, or will it be the globalists?  Given the fact that Trump retains banking elites and globalists within his own cabinet, we cannot rely on him to do the work in favor of a free citizenry.  Conservatives should be very careful in the coming months as to who they support and why.  Most narratives are NOT what they seem.

*  *  *

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end

The mess an GE!!

(courtesy Wolf Richter/WolfStreet)

What General Electric Is Doing To Dodge The Question: “When Will GE File For Bankruptcy?”

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

The hail of two-notch downgrades doesn’t help.

Wolf here: Shares of General Electric [GE] are down over 3% this beautiful Friday morning, trading at $9.20. If they close at this level, they would mark a new nine-year closing low. Shares are down 52% year-to-date:

The lowest close since the 1990s was $6.66 on March 5, 2009, during the Financial Crisis. I remember well: The next morning, then CEO Jeff Immelt was on CNBC, which was owned by NBC, which was owned by GE at the time. And Inmelt was hyping GE’s shares on GE’s TV station that gave him a huge slot of time to do so, and the share price, displayed prominently onscreen, ticked up with every word he spoke.

Immelt was also on the Board of Directors of the New York Fed, which at that time was implementing the Fed’s alphabet-soup of bailout programs for banks, industrial companies with financial divisions, money market funds, foreign central banks (dollar swap lines), and the like. This included a bailout package for GE in form of short-term loans, without which GE might have had trouble making payroll because credit had frozen up and GE had been dependent on borrowing in the corporate paper market to meet its needs, and suddenly it couldn’t. Immelt was involved in those bailout decisions and knew what GE would get, but didn’t mention anything on CNBC.

Now Immelt is gone from GE (resigned in 2017 “earlier than expected”), and he is gone from the New York Fed (resigned in 2011 “due to increased demands on this time”), and CNBC no longer belongs to GE, and the new CEO is trying furiously to keep the whole charade form spiraling totally out of control hoping to be able to dodge the question: “When fill GE file for bankruptcy?”

Below are some of the things that GE is doing to avoid that fate.

By Leonard Hyman and Bill Tilles for WOLF STREET:

General Electric — at one time the world’s most formidable manufacturing company and now one of the world’s most mismanaged conglomerates — suffered more financial indignities this week: Its bond ratings got hit with back-to-back two-notch downgrades: Today by Fitch Ratings, from A to BBB+ due to the “deterioration at GE Power”; and earlier this week by Moody’s, from A2 to BAA1. This follows a similar move by Standard & Poor’s earlier in October.

The rating agencies also downgraded the company’s commercial paper (CP) program, a form of short-term borrowing. Moody’s cut GE’s CP ratings from P-1 to P-2. The new, lower CP ratings effectively prevents GE from further issuance of CP. However, GE still retains access to other, higher cost bank financed short term funding vehicles. But still, not a good look.

Also this week, GE virtually eliminated its quarterly dividend, slashing it from 12 cents to a penny. A belated Halloween themed headline could read, “Boston Slasher Strikes Again.” A year earlier GE’s board voted to cut its dividend from 24 cents to 12 cents.

In our view the previous dividend reduction was better anticipated than the most recent one. Why the hurried need for a cut last week? Probably for cash conservation reasons. GE badly needs the $3.9 billion in cash saved per year to meet financial needs such as $5 billion required for an underfunded pension fund and $3 billion to shore up the capitalization of GE’s finance arm (or what remains of it).

GE also requires considerable cash to retire existing debt. One of GE’s stated financial goals is to improve ratios of debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) to 2.5 times by 2020. In the present climate, we might refer to this as virtue signaling. Except here GE’s principal goal is to keep its respectable, investment-grade bond ratings.

The debt burden that GE’s management is presently struggling with stems from a strategy of borrowing heavily for M&A over the past decade. The biggest (and probably worst) was its purchase of French electrical equipment manufacturer Alstom in 2015 in which GE outbid arch rival Siemens. GE paid top dollar just as the market for electrical equipment began a sharp slide. This acquisition was recently written down by $22 billion reflecting the rather subdued prospects for the global power generation. Talk about a winner’s curse.

In order to raise cash and simplify its business, GE has arranged the sale of GE Transportation (locomotives, electric motors and propulsions systems for mining equipment, etc.), plans to dispose of its Baker Hughes oil services business, and intends to spin off (while retaining control) its profitable health services division.

The power division will be split into two businesses: gas turbines and everything else. This last strategic endeavor is probably the one that rankles the most insofar as it’s about two decades too late. A true house that Edison built would have pitted the fossil vs renewables organizations and let the markets sort it out.

How did GE get into the present mess and how did it manage to miss the turning point in a business it used to dominate? Despite recent disparaging comments regarding Harvard’s case studies, we believe this is something business school professors might want to examine. But it is history. For those in the power business, buyers and users of the equipment, what is the message?

First, the manufacture of gas turbines for electric power generation has become an oligopoly. Three suppliers dominate the market: Mitsubishi Hitachi (in clear lead), Siemens, and lastly GE.  Oligopolists almost by definition tend to abide one another, meaning that they do not engage in anything resembling robust competition. But with an uncertain business outlook, they may be reluctant to invest more money into their businesses. One almost immediate effect is a reduction in spending on research and development which creates a sort of feedback loop which eventually weakens product positioning against new technology.

The manufacturers may argue that the business will bottom out, that a turnaround will take place. And that revenues from servicing existing equipment will provide a steady stream of business anyway. We do not disagree with these prognostications. Renewables will not provide every new kilowatt of capacity, and gas turbines will be needed anyway to back up renewables.

But we also need to be aware that longer term the competition for gas turbines will come not from renewables but from storage devices such as batteries. In terms of capital allocation, we would wager that there is far more money chasing power storage technologies than there is chasing investment in gas turbine technology.

GE, under its new management and new CEO, Lawrence Culp, may resurrect itself as a well-run manufacturing conglomerate after paying down debt obligations and shoring up its pension obligations. The aviation and health groups (even after disposition of some shares) are large and profitable. And Baker-Hughes, despite its indefinite status, might still surprise to the upside depending on global energy prices.

However, Power, despite its worldwide decline, is still GE’s largest business. New management may succeed in growing the gas turbine business (or maybe better managing its slow decline). But to us the dividend cut symbolizes GE’s fading role in a business that it literally created. By Leonard Hyman and Bill Tilles for WOLF STREET

The financial Crisis was a decade ago. But its consequences still haunt us. Read… I Was Asked: “How & When Will the Next Financial Crisis Happen?” 

 

SWAMP STORIES

Papadopoulos details how the Dems. entrapment scheme came to life with the use of undercover deep state agents

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Papadopoulos Details Alleged Entrapment Scheme By Undercover Deep State Agents

George Papadopoulos – a central figure and self-admitted dupe in the Obama administration’s targeted spying on the Trump campaign, gave a wide-ranging interview to Dan Bongino on Friday, detailing what he claims to have been a setup by deep state operatives across the world in order to ultimately infiltrate the Trump campaign.

Reviewing events

In March 2016, Maltese professor Joseph Mifsud told Papadopoulos – an energy consultant who had recently joined the Trump campaign – that Russia had “dirt” on Hillary Clinton, a claim which Papadopoulos repeated in May 2016 to Australian diplomat Alexander Downer in a London bar. Of note, former FBI Assistant Director of counterintelligence, Bill Priestap, reportedly traveled to London directly before Downer met with Papadopoulos, while a few months later former FBI agent Peter Strzok met with Downer in London directly before the DOJ officially launched their investigation into the Trump campaign.

George Papadopoulos@GeorgePapa19

For everyone following closely: the same days I meet Joseph Mifsud, Peter Strzok texts Lisa Page about his overseas contact:
“his guy talking now.” Now new info shows that Strzok’s boss, Priestrap, was in London the day before Downer begins to try and set me up. Coincidence?

George Papadopoulos@GeorgePapa19

Also, Congress needs to further understand why Bill Priestap, Strzok’s boss, flew into London the day before I meet Downer. Was downer being run by our intel? I believe so.

The alleged admission about Clinton’s emails officially sparked the Obama administration’s counterintelligence operation on Trump on July 31, 2016 – dubbed Operation Crossfire Hurricane. In September 2016, the FBI would send spy Stefan Halper to further probe Papadopoulos on the Clinton email allegation, and – according to his interview with Dan Bongino, Papadoplous says Halper angrily accused him of working with Russia before storming out of a meeting.

Halper essentially began interrogating Papadopoulos, saying that it’s “obviously in your interest to be working with the Russians” and to “hack emails.” “You’re complicit with Russia in this, isn’t that right George” Halper told him. Halper also inquired about Hillary’s hacked emails, insinuating that Papadopoulos possessed them. Papadopoulos denied knowing anything about this and asked to be left alone. –Bongino.com

There are two schools of thought on Papadopoulos and his relationship with Mifsud – the first link in the chain regarding the Clinton email rumor. Notably, Mifsud claimed last November to be a member of the Clinton Foundation, and has donated to the charity.

The first theory is that Mifsud and Papadopoulos are Russian agents, and that Papadopoulos was used to try and establish a backchannel to Putin. Papadopoulos admits he tried to set up a Trump-Putin meeting – which was flatly rejected by the Trump campaign. Papadopoulos, however, claims the Putin connection was a woman Mifsud introduced him to claiming to be Putin’s niece, who was present at a March 24, 2016 meeting.

The second theory regarding Mifsud is that he was a deep state plant working with the FBI; convincing Papadopoulos that he could arrange a meeting with members of the Russian government and then seeding Papadopoulos with the Clinton email rumor. From there, as the theory goes, the “deep state” attempted to pump Papadopoulos for information and set up a case against him – beginning with Alexander Downer and the “drunken” confession in London.

Dill Pickle@Pickleboy57

He met Mifsud first. Mifsud plants the intel, “Russians have Hillary emails.”
Later, George meets Downer and tells him about the emails. Downer then tells the FBI. FBI then meets PapaD. Why did Strzok’s boss fly to London close to the date Downer met with PapaD?

Papadopoulos told Bongino that he wasn’t drunk during his meeting with Downer, and that he was being recorded. Papadopoulos noted during the Bongino interview that transcripts of his meetings with Mifsud and Downer reportedly exist – which he says proves that he was set up. According to Papadopoulos, Mifsud’s lawyer said that he’s not a Russian asset and was instead working for Western intelligence.

Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to lying the FBI about his interactions with Mifsud, and was sentenced to 14 days in federal prison and a $9,500 fine.

$10,000 cash

Papadopoulos also told Bongino about $10,000 in cash that he was given in an Israel hotel room in July 2017 – which he claims was another attempt to set him up. He says that he believes the bills were marked, and is looking for a way to bring the cash into the United States for Congressional investigators to analyze. The cash is currently with his attorney in Greece.

“I’m actually trying to bring that money back somehow so that Congress can investigate it because I am 100 percent sure those are marked bills, and to see who was actually running this operation against me,” Papadopoulos told Bongino.

“I am more than happy to deliver the $10,000 in cash I received, as part of what I believe was a sting operation to frame me in summer 2017, to your committee to examine for marked bills. This is in the interest of me being fully transparent,” he wrote last week on Twitter to  North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows and Texas Rep. John Ratcliffe.

George Papadopoulos@GeorgePapa19

Hons: @RepMarkMeadows and @RepRatcliffe I am more than happy to deliver the $10,000 in cash I received, as part of what I believe was a sting operation to frame me in summer 2017,to your committee to examine for marked bills. This is in the interest of me being fully transparent.

The two Republicans are members of a congressional task force investigating the FBI’s investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. The task force interviewed Papadopoulos on Oct. 25.

Papadopoulos acknowledged in his interview with Bongino that his claims about his encounters with an Israeli-American businessman named Charles Tawil were “an incredible, insane story.”

“But it’s true,” he asserted.

Papadopoulos told Bongino the he believes that Tawil “was working on behalf of Western intelligence to entrap me.”

Papadopoulos does not have direct evidence that Tawil was working on behalf of a Western government when they met in March and July 2017. Instead, Papadopoulos is speculating based on what he says is the peculiar circumstances of his encounters with Tawil as well as his meetings with at least one known FBI informant. –Daily Caller

Afraid he might be killed if he didn’t accept the money, Papadopoulos took the funds and later contacted Tawil – who allegedly told Papadopoulos he didn’t want it back. From there, Papadopoulos gave the cash to his attorney in Greece. Upon his return to the United States several days later, Papadopoulos was arrested on July 28, 2017 at Dulles International Airport in Washington D.C., by agents who he believes were looking for the cash.

And then when Papadopoulos landed back in America, he was arrested at Dulles International Airport on July 27th. Strangely, he wasn’t shown the warrant for his arrest when arrested, and didn’t know the reason why until the next day. The $10,000 that Tawil paid Papadopoulos in cash is interesting in this context, as it would be the exact amount of money one would be required to declare at customs. Papadopoulos didn’t recall if he was arrested before or after he filled out a customs slip (but didn’t have the money on him). –Bongino.com

George Papadopoulos@GeorgePapa19

If the $10,000 is traced to the Obama DOJ/administration, then we have a massive can of worms that just opened. I will make sure congress has the opportunity to review for marked bills and investigate who authorized an entrapment operation against an American citizen.

At minimum, one should set aside an hour for the Bongino-Papadopoulos interview if only to hear his version of events.

Perhaps the biggest mystery of all is how George was able to end up with such a hot Italian (not Russian) wife:

Simona Mangiante Papadopoulos@simonamangiante

In god we trust. George took me this morning to the Orthodox Church. We prayed for everyone, the good and the lost souls. #neverlosefaith

end
Miami polling stations tuns out of ballots as early voting soars
(courtesy zerohedge)

Miami Polling Station Runs Out Of Ballots As Early Voting Soars

Democrats in swing states like Florida, where polls suggest their parties’ candidates for state-wide and US Congress have a slight edge, are, we imagine, already bracing to call for recounts as the first in what we imagine will be a rash of election-related delays and malfunctions plague polling places in heavily Democratic districts. To wit, the Miami Herald reported on Sunday that a polling place in northern Miami briefly ran out of ballots on Sunday thanks to “malfunctioning printers”.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Doug Hanks

@doug_hanks

Miami-Dade voting site in North Miami named for a 102-year-old voter who waited hours to cast her ballot for @BarackObama in 2012 saw ballot printers to go down today. Poll workers say it delayed voting by an hour or two. County says 45 mins. Long line continues after dark

The logistical nightmare that followed led to long lines on the final day of early voting, with some voters waiting more than three hours to cast a ballot.

As the sun set on the 14th day of early voting in the largely black neighborhood, more than 200 voters were in a line that snaked around half a block outside the North Miami library. “I would have stayed in line eight hours if I had to,” Joas Laurent, 37, said as he walked out of the library at 7:20 p.m., about three hours after he said he arrived.

Florida has an idiosyncratic system set up for early voting, relying on printers to issue “customized” ballots to each voter based on their home district. In Sunday’s fiasco, the printers stopped working, forcing poll workers to distribute prefabricated ballots. When those ran out, campaign workers scrambled to order more from a local voting district. One seasoned poll worker said Sunday was the only time she could remember Miami-Dade running out of ballots.

Because any voter in Miami-Dade can vote early in any of the county’s 28 early-voting sites, poll workers print out a customized ballot with the state and municipal questions that apply to a voter’s precinct. For some reason, all of the North Miami printers went down at once, White said. Unable to print customized ballots, poll workers had to revert to the contingency plan: unlocking a cabinet with pre-printed ballots for each of the hundreds of precincts within Miami-Dade.

And while the county assured the press that this was only a minor hiccup…

“Nobody waited more than 45 minutes” for their replacement ballot to arrive, she said. “Which I know is a long time.”

…voters who waited out the ordeal complained that, in reality, the wait times were more than four times that.

Francesca Petite, 19, arrived at the North Miami site around 4 p.m. to vote in her first election. She didn’t leave the voting site until 7:45 p.m. “The lines could have been quicker,” she said. But joined by her older sister, Evelyn, Petite said the crowds kept them entertained in line and that volunteers handed out water bottles. “Overall,” she said, “It was a positive experience.”

Why are these delays significant? Because Northern Miami has been one of the busiest areas during a cycle where early voting has risen by more than 150% compared with the previous gubernatorial election in 2014.

North Miami looks to be the biggest stumble in an early-voting cycle that has seen records broken for a gubernatorial election, and a pace that’s approaching what Miami-Dade sees during presidential years. Early voting is up more than 150 percent from 2014 levels. Through Saturday, Miami-Dade voters cast about 504,000 ballots in person and through the mail. That puts turnout at just under 36 percent as Sunday voting began, compared to 21 percent at the same time in 2014.

In 2016, turnout had already topped 50 percent when the final day of early voting arrived. And while the 2018 midterm election isn’t matching the 2016 pace, some early-voting sites in Miami-Dade actually surpassed presidential turnout in recent days.

The Coral Gables library, the busiest of Miami-Dade’s 28 early-voting sites, saw 80 more voters than it did on the last Saturday of early voting in 2016. The Coral Reef and Lemon City libraries both saw roughly 300 more early voters on Saturday than they did two years ago. The North Dade Library in Miami Gardens has the smallest drop-off from its 2016 levels, down just 13 percent from the presidential pace of 2016.

North Miami recently climbed to the Top Five list of Miami-Dade’s busiest early-voting sites, but hasn’t passed its 2016 totals on any day, according to county statistics. Even so, the Elections Department expected a surge of voters Sunday in the Democratic stronghold during the Democratic Party’s traditional “Souls to the Polls” get-out-the-vote effort with churchgoers on the final Sunday of early voting. Numbers released Monday morning showed 1,939 people voted Sunday at North Miami, the busiest day for the site this year and a pace of about 160 voters an hour.

Workers on Andrew Gillum’s campaign swarmed the polling station as the 7 pm close of voting approached, handing out water and pizza to entice voters to stick around for their chance to cast a ballot in the “Desiline Victor Voting Wing,” which was named after a 102-year-old woman who waited for hours in 2012 to vote for Barack Obama amid an epic delay that attracted national attention. Voting continued at the site well after the polls closed at 7 pm, with the line finally reaching zero an hour later.

So far, the story hasn’t attracted much attention from the national press. But if Gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum and Senator Bill Nelson lose by small margins, expect an epic round of finger-pointing.

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

 

NYT’s @thechrisbuskirk: The rise of Trumpism has changed the shape of the electorate. We are working our way toward a new political dispensation.  Republicans don’t want to go back to the Bush-McCain-Romney era any more than Democrats want to go back to Clintonism.  That means everything is up for grabs.     https://twitter.com/nytopinion/status/1059213597824479232
 
@senjudiciary: Today, Chairman Grassley referred Judy Munro-Leighton to The Justice Dept for investigation for making materially false statements to the Committee during the course of its [Kavanaugh] investigation.   
    On October 3, 2018, Committee staff received an email from a Ms. Judy Munro Leighton with a subject line claiming: “I am Jane Doe from Oceanside CA — Kavanaugh raped me.”… Committee investigators were able to use open-source research to locate Ms. Munro-Leighton and determine that she: (1) is a left-wing activist; (2) is decades older than Judge Kavanaugh; and (3) lives in neither the Washington DC area nor California, but in Kentucky… 
    When questioned by Committee investigators she admitted it was false, a “ploy,” and a “tactic.” She was opposed to Judge Kavanaugh’s confirmation…  https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/2018-11-02%20CEG%20to%20DOJ%20FBI%20(Munro-Leighton%20Referral)%20with%20redacted%20enclosures.pdf
 
@RoScarborough: Nelson W. Cunningham, who guesses in Politico that @realDonaldTrump has been subpoenaed by Mueller, is a consultant at a Clinton-connected firm, was in Clinton White House; worked on John Kerry’s campaigns. Trump team denies.
 
Another reason for lack of MSM credibility and integrity is that it teems with ex-officials, ex-operatives, ex-stooges and family members of both parties.
 
@seanmdav: If you want to know why @Facebook and @Google are blatantly censoring ads promoting Marsha Blackburn and opposing Phil Bredesen, you don’t have to look very hard.
 
Blackburn bill would extend privacy rules to Google & Facebook
 
Facebook says it ‘mistakenly’ removed rabbi’s story about harassment by Farrakhan supporters
 
Twitter apologizes for ‘Kill all Jews’ trending topic [If the GOP holds the House, regulation is coming]
 
John Solomon: Falsehood shames Clapper, Brennan and pledge to protect whistleblower
In the summer of 2014, then-Director of National Intelligence James Clapper sent a letter assuring Sens. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) that enhanced monitoring of Intelligence Community workers was designed to find leakers and insider threats, and was not intended to thwart lawful whistleblowing…
     Just four months before Clapper penned that letter, the CIA intercepted one or more whistleblowers’ disclosures, legally submitted and intended to go to Congress through the Intelligence Community’s official whistleblowing office.  And the intercepts were briefed to CIA leadership, contrary to Clapper’s assurance.  [Brennan and Clapper face legal issues.  This explains their incessant DJT bashing.]
    The disclosure was contained in two memos declassified this past week from the Intelligence Community’s inspector general…
 
The CIA’s communications suffered a catastrophic compromise. It started in Iran.
From around 2009 to 2013, the U.S. intelligence community experienced crippling intelligence failures related to the secret internet-based communications system, a key means for remote messaging between CIA officers and their sources on the ground worldwide…
       By 2010, however, it appears that Iran had begun to identify CIA agents. And by 2011, Iranian authorities dismantled a CIA spy network in that country, said seven former U.S. intelligence officials…
 
Kyle Bass @Jkylebass: CHINA KILLED DOZENS of US Intelligence personnel KHASHOGGI style as a result of this awful breach. Why should we go easy on a CCP that lies, steals, manipulates, and MURDERS our own?! They are no friends of ours#china#murder
I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON TUESDAY IF ALL GOES WELL

Harvey

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