GOLD: $1207.80 DOWN $16.80 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)
Silver: $14.15 DOWN 29 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Closing access prices:
Gold : 1209.45
silver: $14.16
IT IS MUCH EASIER FOR THE BOYS TO RAID ON FRIDAY BECAUSE CHINA AND LONDON ARE CLOSED AT NOON AND THUS THE CROOKS DO NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT BEING DELIVERED UPON UNTIL MONDAY.
For comex gold and silver:
NOV
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR NOV CONTRACT:1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100
Total number of notices filed so far for NOV: 194 for 19400 OZ (0.6034 TONNES)
FOR NOVEMBER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
28 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
140,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1391 for 6,955,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $6435: down $43
Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6410 down 716
end
XXXX
China is controlling the gold market
WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY 2546 CONTRACTS FROM 214,502 DOWN TO 211,956 WITH YESTERDAY’S 15 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:
0 EFP’S FOR NOV. 3282 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 3282 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3282 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3282 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.41 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 15 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ); 30.370 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPT. 2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 6,970,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV:
17,929 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 17,929 CONTRACTS) OR 89.65MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2561 CONTRACTS OR 12.806 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV: 89.65 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 12.80% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 2,519.37 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018: 244.95 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018: 236.67 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018: 385.75 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018: 210.05 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018: 345.43 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018: 172.84 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018: 205.23 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018: 167,05 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018: 224.875 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2546 WITH THE 15 CENT DECLINE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3282 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .
TODAY WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED: 736 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
i.e 3282 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2546 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THUS GOOD DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 15 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.44 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.05 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW 6.970 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.059 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 28 NOTICE(S) FOR 140,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.
AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT 6.970 MILLION OZ.
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).
IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3544 CONTRACTS UP TO 499,905 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A DROP IN PRICE OF $3.30).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7692 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES. IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:
NOVEMBER HAD 0 EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 7692 CONTACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 499,905. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED RISE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,236 CONTRACTS: 53544 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7692 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN: 11,236 CONTRACTS OR 1,123,600 OZ = 34.94 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $3.30???.
YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5364 EFP’S ISSUED.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 50,571 CONTRACTS OR 5,057,100 OZ OR 157.29 TONNES (7 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7224 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY IN TONNES: 157.29 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 157/29/2550 x 100% TONNES = 6/16% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE: 6,367.25 TONNES *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018: 649.45 TONNES (20 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018: 741.89 TONNES (22 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018: 713.84 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018: 693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018 650.71 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018 605.5 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018 488.54 TONNES (23 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018 470.64 TONNES (19 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018 543.92 TONNES (23 TRADING DAYS)
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3544 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($3.30) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7692 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7692 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG RISE OF 11,236 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
7692 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3544 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 34.94 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $3,30 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX????.
we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD...
WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80 TODAY: /
no changes in gold inventory at the GLD
/GLD INVENTORY 755.23 TONNES
Inventory rests tonight: 755.23 tonnes.
TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY
SLV/
WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY
A NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.
NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL. THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM
end
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY 2546 CONTRACTS from 214,502 DOWN TO 211,956 AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 1 1/3 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..
.
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
i) 0 EFP’s for November… and
3282 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3282 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2546 CONTRACTS TO THE 3282 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A FAIR NET GAIN OF 736 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.494 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW 6.97 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.
RESULT: A GOOD INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 15 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 3282 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
(report Harvey)
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.76 POINTS OR 1.39% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 625.80 POINTS OR 2.39% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 236.67 OR 1.05%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.08% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.9484 AS POBC RESUMES ITS HUGE DEVALUATION /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 59.81 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.74 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN AT 6.9484 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9437: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED
3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 C/ CHINA
i)Massive amounts of dollars are leaving China. It is no doubt the sucking of these dollars by Trump who needs to fund 1.9 trillion of debt and Fed roll off. It is creating a nightmare scenario for the Chinese as they too along with emerging markets are suffering from a lack of dollars
( Jeffery Snider/Alhambra Investments)
a must read….
ii)This is major!! POBC has given a directive that large banks must issue 1/3 of their entire loans to private companies even though they know that 2/3 of these will probably default. This sent Chinese stocks plummeting because they know this is unsustainable
iii)Ken Rogoff is correct: as China is slowing down, instead of lower interest rates, we will witness higher rates and that will doom the world’ global economy
( Ken Rogoff/Guardian)
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
i)FRANCE/IRAN/USA
Macron is leading France in protecting the Iran/EU oil trade from USA sanctions
( Paraskova /OilPrice.com)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
i)Iran/USA
Pompeo correctly states that the leadership must decide if they want their people to eat
( zerohedge)
ii)SAUDI ARABIA
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
7. OIL ISSUES
Canada/USA
This is a key defeat for Trump as a judge blocks the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. This is very bad for Canada
(courtesy zerohedge)
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
ARGENTINA
Argentina faces China as it signs a $8.7 billion swap deal similar to the one signed with Venezuela’s swap with China. It sure looks like the west is losing ground to China..
(courtesy zerohedge)
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
b)Chinese demand for gold in October remains strong at 143 tonnes.
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)
MARKET TRADING
i(Not good: GE collapses to an 8 handle. The price is unchanged from 1995
( zerohedge)
ii)Raid today as stocks fall as well as gold. Yields tumble after a hot PPI.
( zerohedge)
ii)Market data/
a)Pay special attention to the following: Graham is correct…the Fed just told everyone that they are on their own and that their is no Fed put
( Graham Summers)
b)Soft data, University of Michigan sentiment slides and for the first time “hope” also fades along with buying plans
The USA economy is faltering badly
( zerohedge)
a)Recount looms again in Florida after the Republican victories but suspicions galore about possible vote tampering
( zerohedge)
b)Looks like we have voter fraud in both Arizona and Florida..no who would have guessed
(courtesy zerohedge)
iv)SWAMP STORIES
a)Here is the list of people who might replace Sessions on a permanent basis.
( zerohedge)
b)
Let us head over to the comex:
We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 31 notices standing for a loss of 247 contacts. We had 275 notices served upon yesterday so we gained another 28 contracts or an additional 140,000 oz will stand for delivery as these longs refused to morph into London based forwards as well as not accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts. QUEUE JUMPING DID RETURN TO THE COMEX ARENA AS THIS PHENOMENON (IN SILVER) HAS BEEN THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR OVER 19 MONTHS.
After November, we have a December contract and here we lost 3528 contracts down to 142,538. January saw a gain of 70 contracts up to 1060 contracts. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a loss of 681 contracts up to 53,854.
AMERICAN ELECTIONS FARCE AS POLITICIANS IGNORE THE LOOMING $121.7 TRILLION DEBT CRISIS
In today’s update we look at yet another ‘Punch and Judy’ American election farce which once again ignored the ‘Elephant in the room’ – the inevitable U.S. $121.7 trillion debt crisis and the coming global $250 trillion debt crisis.
We examine the “Punch and Judy” farce that were the American elections this week in which both the politicians, the media and the people again managed to completely ignore one of the greatest financial, economic and societal challenges facing the U.S. and indeed the world – the coming U.S. and global debt crisis.
Trump said he would erase America’s debt in 8 years. It’s now bigger than ever. When this promise was made, the national debt stood at $19 trillion. When Trump became President the US National debt was just below $20 trillion; it has since risen to $21.7 trillion.
During Obama’s presidency, the total national debt has risen from $10.6 trillion to nearly $20 trillion.
This debt is just the nominal national debt and there is also the not insignificant matter of the between $100 trillion and $200 trillion in unfunded liabilities – for medicare, medicaid and social security. As the Baby Boomers retire, these liabilities are coming due in the coming years.
The U.S., like the EU and most western nations, is “kicking the can down the road.” Consequently, a U.S. and global debt crisis looks likely in the coming months and years.
Trump was elected on a promise to reduce the debt and government spending including that on the military and the Deep State. Not only has he failed miserably in this goal – he had done the opposite. He has not been a man of his word and like a lot of politicians – both Republican and Democrat, left and right – he talks the talk but completely fails to walk the walk!
Politics in the U.S. and globally has been reduced to a modern ‘Punch and Judy’ show. It is akin to a kids puppet show in which the competitors beat each other up and it is a distraction for the child like electorate. The politicians resemble mere puppets to corporate and Wall Street vested interests who are ‘pulling the strings’ and enriching themselves from behind the political stage.
This is happening at the expense of individuals, families, farmers, entrepreneurs, small and medium size enterprises, less politically connected corporations and banks and ultimately society itself.
Massive military expenditures are justified – nearly half of U.S. government expenditure now goes to the arms industry – by scaring the people with the latest bogeyman du jour. There are evil villains every where as the Deep State and their corrupt and idiotic politicians and a compliant media who do the fear mongering of the Deep State. Constant political and media fear mongering and “cat calls” of “look behind you” at the latest enemy of the day.
The lists grows longer by the day:
Evil Russia in Soviet era to evil Saddam Hussein and Iraq (once an ally) to Gadafi in Libya (once an ally) to North Korea (who were an existential threat and evil one week and then became allies more recently and “Little Rocket Man” may become an enemy again if necessary) to evil Muslims everywhere (except fundamentalist Saudi Arabia who West sells arms to) to evil Russians again in recent years, and now we appear set for an even bigger enemy – those evil Chinese who are now hacking our devices and trying to monitor us. Western governments would never do such a thing!
Tweedle Dum Tweedle Dee: During the 2000 United States presidential election, candidate Ralph Nader claimed that George W. Bush and Al Gore were not very different in their policies and how they had become captured by corporate and Wall Street interests. He rightly called them the parties and candidates – Tweedledum and Tweedledee.
Trajectory towards empire is inexorable and now has a momentum and life of its own alas. Ralph Nader, Ron Paul were opportunities to change the trajectory which were not embraced unfortunately.
Ultimately all of this bodes badly for the US, its economy and the US dollar.
The threats posed to the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency of the world and the coming dollar and fiat currency devaluations as currency wars intensify make owning physical gold in the safest ways possible essential to all who wish to preserve wealth in the coming years.
NOV 9
Bank of England stalls return of Venezuela’s gold
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2018-11-09 01:37. Section: Daily Dispatches
This should clean out the rest of the Bank of England’s custodial gold PDQ.
* * *
Maduro Scrambles to Bring Venezuela’s Gold Back from the UK
By Stephen Gibbs
The Times, London
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
CARACAS — President Maduro of Venezuela is trying to repatriate at least 14 tonnes of gold held at the Bank of England, fearing that access could be frozen under U.S. sanctions against his regime.
The bank has refused to release the gold bars, worth about L420 million, according to sources. British officials are understood to have insisted that standard measures to prevent money laundering be taken — including clarification of the Venezuelan government’s intentions for the gold.
There are concerns that Mr Maduro may seize the gold, which is owned by the state, and sell it for personal gain. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/maduro-scrambles-to-bring-venezuela-s…
* * *
end
LAWRIE WILLIAMS : Chinese gold demand may be slipping, but only just
The latest figures for Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) monthly gold withdrawals are in (for October) and they show a marginal downturn from those for the same month a year earlier. But then October can be an anomalous month given the week long Golden Week holiday at the beginning of the month during which time the SGE is closed for business so perhaps not too much should be read into the latest data.
Withdrawals for the year to date are still marginally up on a year earlier, so we will have to wait for November’s figures (usually a strong month) to see if there is any specific trend downwards yet. A Table showing the monthly gold withdrawals data year to date, with comparative figures for the prior two years, is shown below:
At the moment China is still on track for another2,000 tonne plus gold withdrawals year, but if full year demand slips a little we shouldn’t be too surprised. Gold imports from Switzerland and Hong Kong – the two principal published sources for China’s direct gold imports, both appear to be slipping a little and the U.S.-imposed tariffs will be having some adverse impacts on China’s domestic economy which may be leading to a reduction in disposable income among the gold-buying public.. The country’s own gold production is reported to be slipping too as tighter environmental controls are being implemented leading to reduced production, and even closures, at some of the country’s own gold mines.
We continue to equate SGE gold withdrawal levels to our own estimate of China’s gold demand, although some of the prominent gold consultancies may disagree and come up with lower figures. However SGE gold withdrawal figures consistently would seem to equate far closer to known Chinese gold imports, plus the country’s own production plus an allowance for scrap conversion than do the consultancies’ published demand estimates. At the very least SGE gold withdrawals have to represent a measure of the country’s gold flows which is comparable month on month and year on year with previous years.
end
No wonder gold fell in October: BIS intervention rose sharply after falling in August and September
(courtesy Robert Lambourne)
With BIS intervention rising sharply in October, gold price stalled
By: Robert Lambourne
— Published: Friday, 9 November 2018 |
After falling in August and September, intervention in the gold market by the Bank for International Settlements via gold swaps increased substantially in October, according to the bank’s monthly statement of account, published this week:
https://www.bis.org/banking/balsheet/statofacc181031.pd f
The bank’s August and September statements are here:
https://www.bis.org/banking/balsheet/statofacc180831.pd f
https://www.bis.org/banking/balsheet/statofacc180930.pd f
Perhaps not coincidentally, the gold price rose in August and September as the BIS reduced its intervention in the market and then stalled and leveled out in October as the bank greatly increased its intervention again.
The monthly statements of the BIS give only summary information on the bank’s use of gold swaps and other gold-related derivatives. The information in the statements is not sufficient to calculate a precise amount of gold-related derivatives, including swaps. But, after subtracting the gold reported owned by the BIS itself, the bank’s total estimated gold exposure as of October 31 was around 372 tonnes — 134 tonnes, or 56 percent, greater than the approximately 238 tonnes as of September 30.
As of August 31 the bank’s total estimated gold exposure was around 370 tonnes and around 485 tonnes as of July 31.
When it comes to its activities in the gold market, the BIS provides little information on what it is doing, why, and for whom:
http://www.gata.org/node/17793
But the bank continues to trade actively in gold swaps to source gold to its member central banks and other financial entities, as evidenced by the increase in October.
—–
Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.
* * *
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Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST
i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9484/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9437 /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 36/76 POINTS OR 1.39%
. HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 628.80 POINTS OR 2.39%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 236.67POINTS OR 1.05%
3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED
/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.77/Euro FALLS TO 1.1348
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.86/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 59.81 and Brent: 69.74
3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP/ CHINESE YUAN: ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.43%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.44% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.60%
3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.40
3k Gold at $1218.95 silver at:14.33 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 36/100 in roubles/dollar) 67.28
3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.86DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0063 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1421 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017
3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.43%
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.21% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.41%
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
6. TURKISH LIRA: UP TO 5.4891
Global Stocks, Oil Tumble As Dollar Surges And
Familiar Fears Return
Was the Wednesday post-election rally a one-hit wonder? Was the FOMC, despite its surprisingly sparse statement, superhawkish? Was nothing actually fixed this week (narrator: “it wasn’t”) and are all the “same old” fears – trade wars, interest rates, China, tighter financial conditions, peak earnings, slowing global economy – haunting the market making a comeback?
Those are questions on traders’ minds this morning as global markets were headed for their biggest drop in two weeks, awash in a sea of red, as the MSCI World index fell half a percent, its biggest drop since Oct. 26 …
… as Brent tumbles below $70/barrel to a 6 month low, while WTI is now 21% below its recent high and has entered a bear market, now down for a record 10th consecutive day in a row…
… and as the dollar surge brings it just shy of the 2018 highs as the yuan resumed weakening on growing concerns about a slowdown in China, despite inflation data out of Beijing overnight that came in as expected.
While the Fed’s decision to hold rates was expected, some traders had expected an even more dovish approach and a mention of the October rout; its absence led to an overly hawkish take with the Fed confirming a December increase is a distinct possibility for the robust US economy. That contrasts sharply with China, where cooling producer price inflation and falling car sales suggested an economy struggling to gain traction.
“Worries about trade wars and how the slowdown in China will impact the rest of the world mean stocks appear to be more risky, so there’s a typical risk-off move in markets today,” said DZ Bank rates strategist Pascal Segesser.
And as “plain vanilla” growth risks return now that the election is gone, stocks in Hong Kong and China were the main losers in Asia, where a financial sector sub-index fell more than 2 percent after China’s banking watchdog told lenders to allocate at least a third of new loans to private companies, raising the prospects of a jump in bad assets. Additionally, a decline in Chinese PPI, weak car sales and a disappointing outlook from a top online travel company combined to reignite lingering concerns about the health of the world’s second-biggest economy as BBG notes. As as result, the Shanghai Composite, a barometer for overall risk sentiment outside the US, continued to slide, and was down 1.4%, closing just below 2,600, its lowest level since the end of September.
European stocks followed Asia lower, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index down 0.7%, dragged lower by mining and energy shares after crude oil entered a bear market and most industrial metals fell, while disappointing forecasts from Richemont and Thyssenkrup AG also weighed on the index.
US equity futures contracts pointed to second day of declines for U.S. stocks.
Losses in equities pressured bond yields lower, with debt in Germany and the United States rising across the board, pressured by world trade frictions and a budget standoff between Italy and Brussels.
Meanwhile, in FX, the confident Fed boosted the dollar, which had weakened sharply after mid-term elections this week raised the prospects of U.S. political gridlock. The greenback gained a quarter of a percent against the euro and half a percent against the British pound, and is back to just shy of its 2018 highs. The DXY dollar index gained 0.25 percent to 96.86. The Aussie swung to a loss as the central bank’s economic forecasts disappointed traders. The pound erased some of this week’s gains as the Irish border continued to be the biggest hurdle to a Brexit divorce deal; U.K. data was mixed, with the trade deficit shrinking while industrial production and services figures were underwhelming.
In commodities, oil prices fell to multi-month lows as global supply increased and investors worried about the impact from soaring US output, set to hit a record 12mmbpd, and concerns about fuel demand from of lower economic growth and trade disputes. Benchmark Brent crude oil fell to its lowest since early April, down more than 18 percent since reaching four-year highs at the beginning of October. Also overnight, the sturdy dollar tarnished the appetite for safe-haven gold with the price down 0.2% at $1221.42 an ounce.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,796.50
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 365.14
- MXAP down 1.1% to 152.39
- MXAPJ down 1.4% to 485.31
- Nikkei down 1.1% to 22,250.25
- Topix down 0.5% to 1,672.98
- Hang Seng Index down 2.4% to 25,601.92
- Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 2,598.87
- Sensex down 0.2% to 35,156.02
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,921.85
- Kospi down 0.3% to 2,086.09
- German 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to 0.429%
- Euro down 0.2% to $1.1338
- Brent Futures down 0.2% to $70.49/bbl
- Italian 10Y yield rose 5.7 bps to 3.025%
- Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 1.602%
- Brent Futures down 0.2% to $70.50/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,220.88
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.85
Top Overnight News
- Labor Secretary Alex Acosta, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and U.S. Appeals Court Judge Edith Jones are among the people White House aides and outside advisers are considering to replace Jeff Sessions as the nation’s top law enforcement officer
- The White House is unprepared to defend itself against a coming wave of investigations by newly empowered House Democrats, who have vowed to probe everything from cabinet members’ ethics scandals to conflicts of interest involving the president’s business empire
- UBS risks billions in fines as its two biggest legal cases in years are hitting the final stretch, in a test of Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti’s strategy of taking on French and U.S. authorities
- China laid out banks’ lending targets for private companies, as it aims to boost large banks’ loans to private companies to at least one-third of new corporate lending
- India’s government is asking the central bank to hand over a part of its surplus reserves to put that to more productive use, an official told reporters
- Amid optimism a Brexit deal could be reached soon, the Irish border issue continues to be the biggest hurdle while crunching the numbers suggests any deal faces a difficult journey through Parliament
Asian equity markets traded lower following a lacklustre lead from Wall St where the mid-term stock rally stalled as focus shifted to the FOMC. ASX 200 (-0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) were lower with energy stocks pressured after a continued slump in oil prices and as soft earnings results also clouded over Tokyo sentiment. Hang Seng (-2.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) were the worst hit in the region as tech and energy stocks lagged, while continued PBoC liquidity inaction and inline inflation data proved to be inconclusive for sentiment. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with prices uneventful as the pressure from the recent losses in T-notes was counterbalanced by the risk averse tone and BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 980bln of JGBs across the curve.
Top Asian News
- A Fifth of China’s Housing Is Empty. That’s 50 Million Homes
- PBOC’s Yi Warns of Uncertainties in Fed’s Policy, Trade Tensions
- Russia Challenges U.S. in Hosting Taliban at Afghan Talks
- China Banks Fall on Concern Loan Targets Are a Step Too Far
Major European equities are lower across the board (Eurostoxx 50 -0.8%) as the sentiment seen in Asia spills over onto the region. Material names lag amid the slump in base metal prices, while consumer staples outperform. The finance sector is also experiencing weakness with the likes of Spanish banks exposed to Mexico (BBVA -6.7%, Sabadell -2.8%, Santander -2.4%) pressured after Mexican banks fell overnight amid a surprise proposal from the incoming President AMLO to scrap bank fees. (Note: BBVA made 28% of its revenues and 34% of its operating income from Mexico last year.) Meanwhile, UBS (-4.3%) shares declines after the US Justice Department filed a lawsuit against the bank for defrauding investors in its sales of mortgage-backed securities leading up to the global financial crisis. Over in Germany, steel-maker Thyssenkrupp (-11.0%) shares slumped after the company announced a profit warning due to provisions for an ongoing cartel probe and quality problems at its auto business. Elsewhere, Richemont (-6.7%) shares declines amid disappointing earnings, hitting the likes of European Luxury names (LVMH -2.0%, Kering -3.6%) in sympathy.
Top European News
- Turkey Cancels 3 Bond Auctions on Reduced Financing Needs
- Pound Skeptics Turn Believers as Brexit Divorce Deal Looks Near
- France Seizes Ryanair Plane to Force State Aid Repayment
- Telecom Italia Scraps Debt Plan, Sees $2.3 Billion Writedown
In FX, the dollar appears to have stopped for the Greenback on Wednesday, and its resurgence from mid-term election lows has been fuelled to a degree by the latest FOMC policy statement that effectively underpins market expectations for a December hike. Amidst almost universal gains vs currency counterparts, the index is now nudging 97.000 from just shy of 95.700 at one stage and the 2018 peak of 97.201 is back within striking distance. GBP – Brexit impulses continue to ebb and flow between positive vibes on deal prospects and the proverbial cliff edge withdrawal, but the bottom line is that Irish border and back-stop differences remain unresolved to leave the UK at risk of failing to agree terms at home and/or with the EU. Hence, Sterling has lost momentum and is underperforming alongside the NOK (undermined by much softer than expected Norwegian inflation data to trade down around 9.5700 vs the Eur) within the G10 ranks, as Cable teeters above 1.3000, and largely shrugged off a barrage of UK data (GDP firm and trade above consensus, but other elements less encouraging). CAD/EUR – The next worst majors, with Loonie hit by collapsing oil prices and sliding towards 1.3200 vs its US peer, while the single currency continues its relatively sharp and abrupt pull-back from 1.1500 to retest support ahead of the 1.1300 ytd low. Ongoing Italian-EU budget differences are weighing along with more signs of a slowdown, or even weakness in the Eurozone economy, while hefty option expiries are also eyed (1.1300 in 1.1 bn, 1.1340-50 in 2.0 bn and 1.1375 in 1.3 bn for example). AUD/NZD – Also falling prey to their US rival’s revival and hardly helped by neutral or wait-and-see policy guidance from the RBA or RBNZ, as Aud/Usd recoils to sub-0.7250 and Nzd/Usd backs off further from almost 0.6800 to under 0.6750.
In commodities, WTI (-1.6%) and Brent (-1.4%) lost the USD 60/bbl and USD 70/bbl handles respectively, after the complex entered into bear market territory amid rising supply and concerns of a slowdown in global economic growth. Both benchmarks declined around 20% from the four-year highs reached at the front end of October and are set for a fifth straight week of declines, while North Sea Brent Crude hit seven-month lows. The slide has been exacerbated by US’ decision to permit eight countries to continue importing Iranian oil after the imposition of sanctions on the OPEC member, as well as record production of crude oil over in the States. Looking ahead, investors and traders will be focusing on this weekend’s meeting of OPEC and its allies where they are set to discuss output strategies in Abu Dhabi on Sunday. During the week, there were source reports that Russia and Saudi are to start discussing oil production cuts in 2019. This comes after OPEC’s October production reached the highest level since 2016, while Russia hiked its output in the prior month to recent highs of 11.4mln BPD. Producers on Sunday will have to discuss the threat of a glut alongside the prospect of lower demand from faltering EM economies and repercussions from US-Sino trade disputes.
Elsewhere, metals trade lower across the board with copper underperforming amid post-FOMC dollar strength and concerns regarding slowing global economic growth. Among precious metals, spot gold (-0.3%) tracks USD action, with the yellow metal dropping to the lowest level this month, while spot silver (-0.4%) is set for its largest weekly percentage decline in nine weeks. US Federal judge blocked Keystone XL Pipeline stating that US administration’s justification for the approval was incomplete, while the judge added that the State Department failed to evaluate climate impact, oil spills and cultural resources.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
- 8:30am: PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.6%; Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 2.5%; Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, prior 2.9%
- 8:45am: Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
- 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
- 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 98, prior 98.6; Expectations, est. 87.2, prior 89.3; Current Conditions, est. 114.9, prior 113.1
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.76 POINTS OR 1.39% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 625.80 POINTS OR 2.39% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 236.67 OR 1.05%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.08% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.9484 AS POBC RESUMES ITS HUGE DEVALUATION /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 59.81 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.74 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN AT 6.9484 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9437: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED
3 a NORTH KOREA/USA
North Korea/South Korea/USA/China
3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS
3 C CHINA
Massive amounts of dollars are leaving China. It is no doubt the sucking of these dollars by Trump who needs to fund 1.9 trillion of debt and Fed roll off. It is creating a nightmare scenario for the Chinese as they too along with emerging markets are suffering from a lack of dollars
(courtesy Jeffery Snider/Alhambra Investments)
a must read….
China’s (Not) SAFE
Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,
In another sign of repeating 2015, the Chinese are beginning to mobilize their “reserves” again. Three years ago, in a futile attempt to staunch CNY’s stubborn “devaluation” various government authorities blew through just about $1 trillion. It didn’t work. You would think that everyone could learn from this episode.
I think the Chinese did, which is why in 2017 they engineered the bypass through Hong Kong in order to hide the continued peril; capital outflows in the mistaken parlance of the mainstream. All that changed, unsurprisingly, in January.
At first, unlike 2015, it was a trickle. Only small balances were deployed scattershot suggesting that officials weren’t going to repeat their mistake. Western Economists may still view foreign reserves as insurance against this kind of thing, but eurodollar squeeze #3 proved conclusively the absurdity of being so monetarily ignorant.
If you can’t steady your currency with $1 trillion, no one can. Period.
To chuck that mind-boggling amount into the ether and get nothing to show for it is about as conclusive a demonstration. The PBOC and others’ reluctance to do the same thing in 2018 is therefore understandable. They let CNY go mostly unaddressed (apart from some clandestine operations here or there) because what else were they going to do?
This, I believe, explains why CNY plummeted in 2018 compared to the “ticking clock” stairstep decline two and three years ago. That’s another aspect monetary officials may now appreciate, how in the end the mobilization of reserves tends to make things worse.
All that may be changing, however. I have to assume with great reluctance, pretty much they don’t know what else to do. Foreign reserves are flowing out of the government’s various pockets all over again. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported that in September 2018 total foreign reserves fell by $22.69 billion. It was the most since January, that prior month a one-off fix.
Today, SAFE estimates that in October China shed another $33.93 billion. This was the largest monthly usage since the last ticking clock in 2016. On a 2-month basis, it is pretty clear things are getting serious in China with CNY hanging just on the other side of 7.0.
It is a pretty clear signal for escalation. Of what? All these things are connected; from eurodollars to Chinese foreign reserves to Chinese internal money (RMB). They all follow from this exogenous state. As the eurodollar system goes, so does everything else in China (as well as everywhere else).
In this case, if A = B, and B = C, then obviously A = C. In other words, all the factors pictured below (3 charts) are the same thing approached from different Chinese angles: eurodollars.
Thus, working backward, the more China feels compelled to act against various forms of internal monetary tightness we know right then its origin. China tells us everything we need to know about the eurodollar system, and therefore the dollar nobody on this side of the world pays any attention to (continuing the age-old policy of benign neglect that in the past eleven years has devolved into just criminal neglect).
The dollar shortage, or eurodollar squeeze, however you wish to call it, is growing more disruptive not less (where’s federal funds lately?) We can see the results of the disorder scattered all across the globe. Nothing is more consistent with the sudden struggles in the European economy of late as China’s declining foreign reserve balances.
Likewise, the absolutely huge warning in the oil market, the futures curve going contango, is very much related to China going 2015.
The list of unwelcome developments is multiplying and amplifying. Even the Western mainstream is finding it more and more difficult to just skate past all this. Bloomberg last week (thanks M. Simmons):
The world’s major economies that entered 2018 accelerating in sync risk entering 2019 decelerating in sync.
The shift is being led by China, where the economy’s weakest performance since 2009 is set to worsen unless a peace can be struck in the trade war with the U.S. Factory readings from Asia already show a fallout, with Taiwan, Thailand and Malaysia slipping into contraction territory.
The euro-area too is losing momentum, expanding in the third quarter at half the pace of the prior three months as Italy and Germany stagnated.
Even the US may not be invulnerable, if the Economists quoted by the article are right (though they don’t know why, sticking with this trade war theory). I wrote back in September, as for months before, just where this is all heading:
From 2003 to 2009, it went: globally synchronized growth, decoupling, globally synchronized downturn. From 2010 to 2012, it went: globally synchronized growth, decoupling, globally synchronized downturn. From 2013 to 2016, it went: strong global growth (not synchronized), decoupling, synchronized downturn.
Last year to this year, it has gone: globally synchronized growth, decoupling. What comes next?
The answer is given to us by SAFE.
Unprecedented “Desperation” Lending Directive Sends Chinese Stocks Reeling
On November 8, China shocked markets with its latest targeted stimulus in the form of an “unprecedented” lending directive ordering large banks to issue loans to private companies to at least one-third of new corporate lending, said Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. The announcement sparked a new round of investor concerns about what is being unsaid about China’s opaque, private enterprises, raising prospects of a fresh spike in bad assets.
Guo’s comments were the latest attempt by authorities to try to improve funding access for China’s non-state companies, which have been struggling to get bank loans in the aftermath of China’s crackdown on shadow lending. More importantly, it was the first time financial regulators had given targets on private lending, confirmation that earlier efforts hadn’t sparked the necessary credit activity.
More importantly, this is the first time China set formal goals for private lending, a step it refrained from even during the financial crisis of 2008 according to Bloomberg. The stimulus package it implemented at the time swelled bad debt levels, which now threaten to swallow any new money poured into private companies. Non-state firms defaulted on 67.4 billion yuan ($9.7 billion) of local bonds this year, 4.2 times that of 2017, while the overall Chinese market is headed for a year of record defaults in 2018.
According to commentators, the new policy was prompted by the need to ensure that China’s private firms, already challenged by China’s state-owned behemoths, survive amid a plunging stock market, record corporate defaults and a cooling economy. At the same time, the target for small and medium-sized banks is higher, at two-thirds of new corporate loans, with Guo adding that he wants to see loans to private companies account for at least half of total new corporate loans in three years.
But most importantly, this targeted lending will increase market concern on banks’ “civic duty” with Huatai Securities predicting a new sharp spike in NPL ratio amid the accelerating economic slowdown, which would prove negative for short-term sentiment.
“There is desperation among regulators, and sometimes muddled polices are difficult to avoid under this kind of pressure,” said Jiang Liangqing, a Beijing-based fund manager at Ruisen Capital Management. “Investors are voting with their feet.”
* * *
Also this week, PBOC Governor Yi announced a policy combination of “3 arrows” to support additional liquidity to the private sector, including bank loans, debt and equity financing. The arrows, per Goldman, were the following:
- Firstly, PBOC is looking into the possibility of promoting equity financing for private firms. The central bank is working with various financial institutions such as fund managers and brokerages on this initiative.
- Secondly, PBOC will expand a recently launched scheme to promote private firms’ bond issuance in collaboration with financial regulators. Three companies have already raised 1.9 billion yuan of bonds with over-subscription, and 30 more private enterprises are preparing for bond issuance.
- Thirdly, PBOC will add a new metric in the MPA formula to encourage lending to private companies. They will also increase the supply of long term and reasonably priced funding for financial institutions (further RRR cuts would fit this goal, in our view).
As Goldman notes, “it is rare for a senior official to openly acknowledge previous policy missteps.” As a result, this is likely in response to the recent meetings hosted by President Xi, especially the one with entrepreneurs. That meeting was unique in that it carried the highest political authority and at the same time was very specific in terms of the measures to be taken.
As such, it likely put the onus on senior officials who attended the meeting to act in a timely manner. While the governor stated there is no change in the overall monetary policy stance, which is described as prudent, and more support for the real economy via more bond issuance had been stated previously, his comment on past policy missteps suggests a change in policy stance. Rather, the reiteration of the current policy stance should be read more as an indication that the PBOC will be measured in terms of the size of additional loosening. In terms of more tangible measures, Goldman now sees a higher probability that TSF growth will accelerate from now, but likely at a very measured pace. Worse, many of these new funds will end up funding underperforming assets, resulting in a spike in on-performing loans and more bad debt.
Sure enough, overnight the Shanghai Composite was hammered again, sliding 1.4% to the lowest level since the end of September, and back below 2,600…
… while the Shenzhen Financial index sliding 2.2%, following another drop the previous day.
The Friday drop followed a Thursday rout when the news was first announced which saw the major banks tumble as a result of this latest government intervention in capital allocation, with the following results: Bank of Shanghai -4%, China Merchants Bank -4%, ICBC -3.3%, Agricultural Bank of China -2.9%, Industrial Bank -2.5%, Bank of China -1.6%, Bank of Communications -1.3%
end
Ken Rogoff is correct: as China is slowing down, instead of lower interest rates, we will witness higher rates and that will doom the world’ global economy
(courtesy Ken Rogoff/Guardian)
“A Chinese Recession Is Inevitable” – Ken Rogoff Ruins ‘Decoupled-America’ Narrative
Authored by Kenneth Rogoff, op-ed via The Guardian,
Analysts say a Chinese recession would only hurt the region. That may be wishful thinking…
When China finally has its inevitable growth recession – which will almost surely be amplified by a financial crisis, given the economy’s massive leverage – how will the rest of world be affected? With US President Donald Trump’s trade war hitting China just as growth was already slowing, this is no idle question.
Typical estimates, for example those embodied in the International Monetary Fund’s assessments of country risk, suggest an economic slowdown in China will hurt everyone. But the acute pain, according to the IMF, will be more regionally concentrated and confined than would be the case for a deep recession in the United States.
Unfortunately, this might be wishful thinking.
First, the effect on international capital markets could be vastly greater than Chinese capital market linkages would suggest. However jittery global investors may be about prospects for profit growth, a hit to Chinese growth would make things a lot worse. Although it is true that the US is still by far the biggest importer of final consumption goods (a large share of Chinese manufacturing imports are intermediate goods that end up being embodied in exports to the US and Europe), foreign firms nonetheless still enjoy huge profits on sales in China.
Investors today are also concerned about rising interest rates, which not only put a damper on consumption and investment, but also reduce the market value of companies (particularly tech firms) whose valuations depend heavily on profit growth far in the future. A Chinese recession could again make the situation worse.
I appreciate the usual Keynesian thinking that if any economy anywhere slows, this lowers world aggregate demand, and therefore puts downward pressure on global interest rates. But modern thinking is more nuanced. High Asian saving rates over the past two decades have been a significant factor in the low overall level of real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates in both the US and Europe, thanks to the fact that underdeveloped Asian capital markets simply cannot constructively absorb the surplus savings.
Former US Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke famously characterised this much-studied phenomenon as a key component of the “global savings glut”. Thus, instead of leading to lower global real interest rates, a Chinese slowdown that spreads across Asia could paradoxically lead to higher interest rates elsewhere – especially if a second Asian financial crisis leads to a sharp draw-down of central bank reserves. Thus, for global capital markets, a Chinese recession could easily prove to be a double whammy.
As bad as a slowdown in exports to China would be for many countries, a significant rise in global interest rates would be much worse. Eurozone leaders, particularly German Chancellor Angela Merkel, get less credit than they deserve for holding together the politically and economically fragile single currency against steep economic and political odds. But their task would have been well-nigh impossible but for the ultra-low global interest rates that have allowed politically paralysed eurozone officials to skirt needed debt write-downs and restructurings in the periphery.
When the advanced countries had their financial crisis a decade ago, emerging markets recovered relatively quickly, thanks to low debt levels and strong commodity prices. Today, however, debt levels have risen significantly, and a sharp rise in global real interest rates would almost certainly extend today’s brewing crises beyond the handful of countries (including Argentina and Turkey) that have already been hit.
Nor is the US immune. For the moment, the US can finance its trillion-dollar deficits at relatively low cost. But the relatively short-term duration of its borrowing – under four years if one integrates the Treasury and Federal Reserve balance sheets – means that a rise in interest rates would soon cause debt service to crowd out needed expenditures in other areas. At the same time, Trump’s trade war also threatens to undermine the US economy’s dynamism. Its somewhat arbitrary and politically driven nature makes it at least as harmful to US growth as the regulations Trump has so proudly eliminated. Those who assumed that Trump’s stance on trade was mostly campaign bluster should be worried.
The good news is that trade negotiations often seem intractable until the 11th hour. The US and China could reach an agreement before Trump’s punitive tariffs go into effect on 1 January. Such an agreement, one hopes, would reflect a maturing of China’s attitude toward intellectual property rights – akin to what occurred in the US during the late 19th century. (In America’s high growth years, US entrepreneurs often thought little of pilfering patented inventions from the United Kingdom.)
A recession in China, amplified by a financial crisis, would constitute the third leg of the debt super-cycle that began in the US in 2008 and moved to Europe in 2010. Up to this point, the Chinese authorities have done a remarkable job in postponing the inevitable slowdown. Unfortunately, when the downturn arrives, the world is likely to discover that China’s economy matters even more than most people thought.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE/IRAN/USA
Macron is leading France in protecting the Iran/EU oil trade from USA sanctions
(courtesy Paraskova /OilPrice.com)
France Takes The Lead In Protecting Iran Oil Trade From U.S. Sanctions
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via Oilprice.com,
France aims to lead the European Union (EU) efforts in defying U.S. sanctions on Iran, by supporting the creation of a payment mechanism to keep trade with Iran and making the euro more powerful, France’s Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said in an interview with the Financial Times.
“Europe refuses to allow the US to be the trade policeman of the world,” Le Maire told FT, adding that the EU needs to “affirm its sovereignty” in the rift between the EU and the United States over the sanctions on Iran.
The EU has been trying to create a special purpose vehicle (SPV) that would allow the bloc to continue buying Iranian oil and keep trade in other products with Iran after the U.S. sanctions on Tehran return.
The idea behind the SPV is to have it act as a clearing house into which buyers of Iranian oil would pay, allowing the EU to trade oil with Iran without having to directly pay the Islamic Republic.
As the U.S. sanctions on Iran snapped back on Monday, the SPV hasn’t been operational and reports have had it that the undertaking is very complicated and politically sensitive. The bloc is also said to be struggling with the set-up, because no EU member is willing to host it for fear of angering the United States, the Financial Times reported recently, citing EU diplomats.
On Monday, the Belgium-based international financial messaging system SWIFT said that it would comply with the U.S. sanctions on Iran and would cut off sanctioned Iranian banks from its network. This was a blow to the EU’s attempts to defy the U.S. sanctions.
The decision by SWIFT highlights the need for an SPV, France’s Le Maire told FT, but he refused to name countries that could host such a special vehicle. Yet, there have been expressions of interest, he told FT.
Meanwhile, the United States has been dismissive of the idea of an SPV, and Brian Hook, U.S. Special Representative for Iran and Senior Policy Advisor to the Secretary of State, said in a press briefing with European reporters on Monday:
“We have not seen much, if any, demand for the Special Purpose Vehicle. I think if you take a look at the over 100 corporations that have decided to choose the United States market over the Iranian market, they’re not looking to avail themselves of any type of vehicle.”
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
Iran/USA
Pompeo correctly states that the leadership must decide if they want their people to eat
(courtesy zerohedge)
Iran’s Leadership Must Decide “If They Want Their
People To Eat” – Pompeo
Less than a week after US Secretary of State Secretary Mike Pompeo told Fox News Sunday that the “Iranians are responsible for the starvation’ of Yemeni civilians” he’s again issued hugely provocative words, telling the BBC during an interview that Iranian “leadership has to make a decision that they want their people to eat”in reference to the latest round of US sanctions.
As the interview was with BBC Persian, Pompeo’s words were immediately translated from English and broadcast to the Iranian public through BBC’s Persian-language publication. Pompeo repeated his theme that Iran is the world’s foremost state sponsor of terror and a “destabilizing influence” in the Middle East while ultimately blaming the country’s economic suffering on the intransigence of the country’s leaders.
Pompeo’s words came on the heels of Iran’s foreign ministry issuing a formal response to this week’s US sanctions snap back on the energy sector, publishing a 3-minute video of FM Javad Zarif on Tuesday wherein Zarif emphasized that the sanctions mainly targeted average Iranian citizens, referencing “the economic warfare that directly targets the Iranian people.”
The most contentious segment of the BBC interview was as follows:
QUESTION: You say you are not punishing the people. You say that the sanctions are not targeting the people. But what if —
SECRETARY POMPEO: No, they’re not.
QUESTION: But what if the sanctions hurt the Iranian people, the ordinary lives of them?
SECRETARY POMPEO: The folks who are hurting the Iranian people are the ayatollah and Qasem Soleimani and the Iranian leadership. That’s who is bringing the difficulties to Iran today. And you see this. You see this when you read of the protests. You see this when Iranian people have a chance to speak, although we know the human rights there don’t permit the Iranian people to speak freely. It’s the regime that is inflicting harm on the Iranian people, not the world and not the United States.
QUESTION: But as you – but you say that this is not a democratic regime. You say that the regime doesn’t care for Iranian people. But you say you do care for Iranian people.
SECRETARY POMPEO: We do.
But with hundreds of thousands of common Iranians reportedly now struggling to find life-saving medicines due to the sanctions, we doubt the Iranian public is going to be convinced of Washington’s “care” and “concern” for common Iranians.
In the weeks leading up to the November 5th round of sanctions European governments attempted to persuade the White House to agree to guarantees or waivers of Iranian imports of basic foods and medicine — pleas that were reportedly rebuffed.
Addressing the medicine issue in the BBC interview, Pompeo denied that the US was disallowing the flow of life-saving drugs into the country, and made the following assertion: “Not only are the transactions themselves exempted – that is, the transactions in medicine, for example – but the financial transactions connected to that activity also are authorized,” he said.
Pompeo also claimed that “None of the sanctions that have been imposed prevent humanitarian assistance and, indeed, there are big exemptions for medicine for sure, pharmaceuticals, but also more broadly than that for agricultural imports too.”
Saudi Crown Prince Claims Assassination Attempt Against Him Was Thwarted
BBC Arabic reports based an exclusive Jerusalem Post story that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman told a group of Evangelical leaders who met with him in Riyadh earlier this month there was a recent plot to assassinate him, and that the plan was thwarted by Egyptian intelligence.
The Jerusalem Post first broke the story this week based on accounts of the returning Evangelical delegation who met with the crown prince on November 1. Joel Rosenberg, who led the delegation of American Evangelical Christians said MbS relayed that the head of Egyptian intelligence recently came to Riyadh to inform Saudi authorities that a terrorist cell with Saudi citizens had been caught in northern Sinai. “They were planning to assassinate me,” MbS told the American delegation.
Image via BloombergThe assassination plotters were reportedly arrested on Egyptian soil but it is unclear if they were transferred to Saudi Arabia or if they remain in an Egyptian prison. Likely MbS revealed the detail to elicit sympathy at a moment when for over a month he’s faced unprecedented media scrutiny over the October 2nd murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul.
He told the Evangelical delegation concerning Khashoggi’s death that his “enemies are exploiting this to the fullest” — perhaps implying that he’s put at greater risk of an assassination attempt or violence due to the backlash and wave of criticism he’s currently facing. He denied being behind the Khashoggi killing and condemned it as “a mistake” and a “heinous act” that will not go unpunished.
MbS further recently tried to present himself as vital to the West’s war on terror, and said further in the meeting with American pastors: “We must fight the extremists and defeat them or they will stop us and the reforms we are making to make life better for the people of Saudi Arabia.” He also vowed to shore up relations with the US and other regional allies and said: “We are fighting extremists in the ideological war and we are fighting terrorists in a physical war,” according to the Jerusalem Post.
MbS told a delegation of American Evangelical Christian Leaders in Riyadh that he was subject of an assassination plot. Interestingly, at a time when a number of international leaders have appeared to pull back public support for MbS, Israeli officials have issued rare positive words in defense of the Salman regime after recent years of quiet behind the scenes coordination with Saudi intelligence in places like Syria or Yemen. Last week Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a summit with East European leadersin Bulgaria that while the killing of the Saudi journalist at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul was “horrendous,” stability in Saudi Arabia is vital to global security.
Netanyahu’s frank assessment of the Khashoggi affair was as follows, according to Haaretz:
What happened in the Istanbul consulate was horrendous, and it should be duly dealt with. Yet at the same time I say that it is very important for the stability of the world, of the region and of the world, that Saudi Arabia remains stable.
Likely MbS will continue to emphasize his “war on terror” rhetoric to continue to attract positive relations with both Washington and Israel, and will also put himself forward as the victim.
Perhaps we will hear of more thwarted “assassination plots” to come from the mouths of Saudi officials, eliciting sympathy from a momentarily hostile press and world officials.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
7 OIL ISSUES
Canada/USA
This is a key defeat for Trump as a judge blocks the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. This is very bad for Canada
(courtesy zerohedge)
In Major Defeat For Trump, Judge Blocks Construction
Of Keystone XL Pipeline
In a setback for the Trump administration, a federal judge in Montana temporarily halted construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline late on Thursday on the grounds that the U.S. government did not complete a full analysis of the environmental impact of the TransCanada Corp project and failed to justify its decision granting a permit for the 1,200-mile long project designed to connect Canada’s tar sands crude oil with refineries on the Texas Gulf Coast. The ruling came in a lawsuit that several environmental groups filed against the U.S. government in 2017, soon after President Donald Trump announced a presidential permit for the project.
The judge, Brian Morris of the U.S. District Court in Montana, said President Trump’s State Department ignored crucial issues of climate change in order to further the president’s goal of letting the pipeline be built. In doing so, the administration ran afoul of the Administrative Procedure Act, which requires “reasoned” explanations for government decisions, particularly when they represent reversals of well-studied actions.
Morris wrote that a U.S. State Department environmental analysis “fell short of a ‘hard look’” at the cumulative effects of greenhouse gas emissions and the impact on Native American land resources. He also ruled the analysis failed to fully review the effects of the current oil price on the pipeline’s viability and did not fully model potential oil spills and offer mitigations measures.
However, the decision does not permanently block a pipeline permit. It requires the administration to conduct a more thorough review of potential adverse impacts related to climate change, cultural resources and endangered species. The court essentially ordered a do-over.
Morris, a former clerk to the late Chief Justice William Rehnquist, was appointed to the bench by President Obama.
* * *
The ruling is a victory for environmentalists, tribal groups and ranchers who have spent more than a decade fighting against construction of the pipeline that will carry heavy crude to Steele City, Nebraska, from Canada’s oilsands in Alberta.
“The Trump administration tried to force this dirty pipeline project on the American people, but they can’t ignore the threats it would pose to our clean water, our climate, and our communities,” said the Sierra Club, one of the environmental groups involved in the lawsuit, adding that “today’s ruling makes it clear once and for all that it’s time for TransCanada to give up on their Keystone XL pipe dream.” The lawsuit prompting Thursday’s order was brought by a collection of opponents, including the indigenous Environmental Network and the Northern Plains Resource Council, a conservation coalition based in Montana.
On the other hand, the ruling was a major defeat for Trump, who attacked the Obama administration for stopping the project in the face of protests and an environmental impact study. Trump signed an executive order two days into his presidency setting in motion a course reversal on the Keystone XL pipeline as well as the Dakota Access pipeline.
In addition to the president, the ruling deals a major setback for TransCanada and could possibly delay the construction of the $8 billion, 1,180 mile (1,900 km) pipeline. It’s intended to be an extension of TransCanada’s existing Keystone pipeline, which was completed in 2013. Keystone XL (the initials stand for “export limited”) would transport up to 830,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Alberta, Canada, and Montana to Oklahoma and the Gulf Coast. In the U.S., the pipeline would stretch 875 miles through Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska, with the rest continuing into Canada.
Trump supported building the pipeline, which was rejected by former President Barack Obama in 2015 on environmental concerns relating to emissions that cause climate change. Trump said the project would lower consumer fuel prices, create jobs and reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS
ARGENTINA
Argentina faces China as it signs a $8.7 billion swap deal similar to the one signed with Venezuela’s swap with China. It sure looks like the west is losing ground to China..
(courtesy zerohedge)
Argentina Signs $8.7 Billion Swap Agreement With
Beijing To Shore Up Sagging Peso
Embattled Argentinian President Mauricio Macri has been scrambling to shore up his country’s struggling currency since the IMF’s executive board finally approved a record – and expanded – $57 billion bailout loan with the explicit condition that the country’s central bank refrain from using that money to support the Argentine peso.
But as Argentina’s battered economy has continued to deteriorate, the peso’s value has eroded dramatically as the central banks pushed , cementing its status as one of the worst-performing currencies of 2018, as traders ignored a series of frantic rate hikes that brought the overnight interest rate in the country to a staggering 60% (which appears somewhat more appealing next to the country’s annualized inflation rate of 40%).
With Argentina’s economy slipping into a recession back in September, Macri’s government imposed strict fiscal controls to try and limit the country’s reliance on international debt markets – markets to which it only recently regained access. The country’s economic desperation, which has dented Macri’s popularity and cast doubt on his chances of winning reelection next year, prompted us to joke a few months back that it might be time for the ECB to jump on the IMF bailout bandwagon.
zerohedge@zerohedgeARGENTINE PESO EXTENDS LOSS, HITS NEW ALL-TIME LOW AT 41.16/USD
Time to add ECB to IMF bailout
But unfortunately for the West, which sees Argentina and its business-friendly government as a key ally in a region that is slowly falling under Beijing’s sphere of influence, the savior that has emerged to shore up the peso, which has stabilized in recent weeks, though it remains near all-time lows, is not what US leaders would have hoped – particularly with this year’s G-20 conference, set to take place in Buenos Aires, only days away.
As the South China Morning Post reported on Thursday, China and Argentina are nearing a swap deal with China that would add another 60 billion yuan ($8.7 billion) to the Argentine central bank’s reserves, an influx of capital explicitly intended to boost confidence in the peso and help alleviate the country’s economic crisis before it enters Venezuela territory. The economic lifeline is particularly unnerving given decisions by Honduras and El Salvador to switch their diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, an unequivocal sign that their political and economic fealty now lies with the PRC.
Argentina’s recently installed central-bank governor announced the deal during a visit to Beijing, where a delegation of Argentinian economic officials are meeting with representatives of the Communist Party. The delegation reportedly met with PBOC Chairman Yi Gang on Wednesday.
“Argentina and China have signed a currency swap totaling 70 billion yuan before, and we are looking to expand it by adding another 60 billion yuan,” Guido Sandleris, Argentina’s new central bank governor, said in Beijing on Thursday.
The delegations “exchanged views over the financial situations of China and Argentina as well as bilateral financial cooperation,” according to state broadcaster CCTV. Ahead of the G-20 summit, President Xi Jinping is expected to visit China.
“This is a very important visit and we are going to sign around 30 protocols on all areas,” said Diego Ramiro Guelar, Argentina’s ambassador to China.
Trump and Xi are expected to meet on the sidelines of the G-20 for their first face-to-face talks on trade since Trump started slapping tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US over the summer. It will also mark the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders since Trump’s visit to Beijing late last year.
But as the SCMP, which has ties to the Communist Party, has warned that observers shouldn’t expect any breakthroughs on intellectual property or Chinese market access during the talks, the US is bound to view this latest encroachment on its sphere of influence as another deliberate threat.
END
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00
Euro/USA 1.1348 DOWN .0019 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL RED
USA/JAPAN YEN 113.86 DOWN 0.099 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL
GBP/USA 1.3025 DOWN 0.0041 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED
USA/CAN 1.3190 UP .0041 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 19 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1348; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 36/87 POINTS OR 1.39%
//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 625.80 POINTS OR 2.39%
/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.08% /EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 236.67 POINTS OR 1.05%
Trading from Europe and Asia
1/EUROPE OPENED RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 628.80 POINTS OR 2.39%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.76POINTS OR 1.39%
Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.08%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 236.67 POINTS OR 1.05%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1218.95.
silver:$14.33
Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.21% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
The 30 yr bond yield 3.41 DOWN 3 IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.77 UP 4 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING
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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.94% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12% DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.60% DOWN 1 IN basis point yield from THURSDAY
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.40 up 0 POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 178 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.41% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.99% DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM.
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1320 DOWN .0048 or 48 basis points
USA/Japan: 113.84 DOWN .124 OR 12 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2977 UP .0088( POUND UP 88 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar DOWN 81 basis points to 1.3225
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This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 48 BASIS POINTS to trade at 1.1320
The Yen FELL to 113.84 for a GAIN of 12 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE
The POUND GAINED 88 basis points, trading at 1.3225/
The Canadian dollar LOST 88 basis points to 1.3225
The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9567- ON SHORE (YUAN DOWN)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.9532( YUAN DOWN)
TURKISH LIRA: 5.5017
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.12%
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.18 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.39 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day /
THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS
Your closing USA dollar index, 96.94 UP 22 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 4:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 35.34 POINTS OR 0.49%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 1.84 POINTS OR 0.02%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 24.70 POINTS OR 0.48%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 42.20 POINTS OR 0.02%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 117.03 POINTS OR 0,88%/
WTI Oil price; 59.89 1:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 69.94 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / ROUBLE CROSS: 67.76 THE CROSS HIGHER BY .84 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER by 84 BASIS PTS)
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 5.5017 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.41 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:59.85
BRENT:69.60
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.19%.. VERY deadly….and rate fell by a tiny amount despite the huge drop in the dow
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.39%/. VERY .deadly…
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1336 ( DOWN 32 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.79 DOWN .174 (YEN UP 18 BASIS POINTS/ .
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.88 up 16 cent(s)/
The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2971DOWN 95 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY
the Turkish lira close: 5.4631
the Russian rouble: 6795 DOWN 1.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 103 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3197 DOWN 54 BASIS pts
USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9567 (ONSHORE)
USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9454 (OFFSHORE)
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.41%
The Dow closed DOWN 201.82 POINTS OR 0.77%
NASDAQ closed DOWN 123.98 points or 1.65% 4.00 PM EST
VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.36 CLOSED UP 0.64
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.6146% .LIBOR RATES ARE RISING/big jump today
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY
Stocks Slump As Post-Election Surge Ends With Post-Powell Purge
It was such a great ride… until today…
China stocks started the week confidently but ended weak with Shanghai Composite back below the 2600 Maginot Line…
Very mixed picture in Europe with Spain outperforming, Italy worst and the rest unch…
A roller-coaster week of oddness as US stocks were bid on post-election ‘gridlock’ when it was the opposite of gridlock that has sent stocks higher in the last two years… and then dumped when The Fed explained how great the economy was (and therefore it needs to be tamped down by hiking rates)… and then the ubiquitous Friday-closing-ramp…
Futures show the post-election pump and post-Powell dump best…
Dow bounced at its 50DMA, S&P bounced at its 200DMA, NASDAQ ended up below its 200DMA
On the week, Communication Services was crushed and Healthcare outperformed (especially post-election)…
FANG Stocks ended the week in the red after giving it all back today…
Financials outperformed (perhaps because they know Maxine Waters is running the show now), even as the yield curve flattened notably post-Fed…
GE was a bloodbath…
Treasury yields tumbled after the stronger than expected PPI print struck and extended on Navarro’s hawkish tone…30Y outperformed dramatically, 2Y was worst…
The Yield Curve flattened significantly on the week…
Breakevens tumbled today, finally catching down to crude’s collapse…
The Dollar was up for the second week in a row, erasing much of the drop from two weeks ago…
Offshore Yuan tumbled this week – its worst week since July
Bitcoin was unchanged on the week, Bitcoin Cash (ahead of its fork) was up 20%…
Dollar gains left their mark on the commodity space which ended notably weaker across the board…
WTI Crude fell for the 10th day in a row, retracing 50% of the two-year uptrend’s gains…
That is an all-time record losing streak…
But if you think WTI below $60 is bad – Canadian crude is back below $20!!
And the good news is – gas prices should come down…
Gold had an ugly week as the dollar rallied…
And while Yuan was weak, it strengthened notably against gold…
Finally, completely burying the lead, we note the price action of the largest equity market capitalization index in the world – the $24 trillion NYSE Composite…
As Brad Wishak notes, “Text book throw back fail at both the 200 and uptrend resistance…Bull trap the call from here…It’s just a matter of trickle down…”
market trading
Trading this afternoon:
Late this afternoon, we learn that there is no hope for a China/USA deal
Stocks Tumble, Dollar And Bonds Spike After Navarro Crushes Hopes For A China Deal,
Slams “Stench Of Goldman”
Anyone wondering what just spooked stocks, sent the dollar surging to YTD highs, and yields tumbling, look no further than Peter Navarro’s speech this morning, delivered at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where president Trump’s main China advisor not only lashed out at Goldman and “globalist billionaires”, but also accused Wall Street of “shuttle diplomacy” with Beijing, while predictably blasting his archnemesis, China, and repeating the point that “economic security is national security” is the guiding principle of Trump administration, and saying that “if China stopped stealing IP it would lose its economic edge” adding that “if China undertook structural changes US asking for it would be existential change for China.”
Finally, and most important for risk assets, he has dismissed prospects of a deal, accusing Beijing of wanting to “tap dance” and engage in economic dialogue so that it can keep doing what it is doing.
This, in a nutshell is what spooked risk assets and sent safe havens like TSYs and the dollar spiking, because as Navarro’s speech confirms, there will be no breakthrough in the Trump-Xi meeting either in November, or any time in the forseeable future.
Here is a quick breakdown, courtesy of tweets from Bloomberg’s Shawn Donnan‘s who is at CSIS, summarizing what just happened:
- Overflow crowd at @CSIS for Peter Navarro this morning…
- Navarro begins by making point that “economic security is national security” is the guiding principle of Trump administration.
- He also invokes McKinley’s “Patriotism. Protection. And Prosperity” and the tariffs that followed from that as a great example.
- Navarro declares that steel and aluminum tariffs have been huge success and have been repudiation of classical economists’ gloom and doom view that tariffs are bad.
- The Section 301 tariffs have been “brilliant” and move has been “tremendously successful” at responding to Chinese “predation”.
- Declares that Trump’s “tough talk” has resulted in “landmark restructuring” of bad trade deals (Korus and NAFTA) “in Trump time”.
- Navarro says US economy proving Trump is right on “all metrics”…
- “What’s going on with this grand strategy … is a fundamental restructuring back to a strong manufacturing.”
- “The only thing that grew in the Obama administration was our national debt.”
- “The other thing that President Obama didn’t understand is this concept that economic security is national security.”
- Navarro is arguing now that Trump’s reversal of Obama policies re arm sales has brought defense jobs home.
- The big jobs are in the supply chain for those arm sales, Navarro says. “That’s what USMCA was about was getting control back of that supply chain.”
Shawn Donnan
✔@sdonnan
We are now on to Navarro presenting this Sepetember report on the fragility of supply chains for the US defense industrial base. Report is here: https://media.defense.gov/2018/Oct/05/2002048904/-1/-1/1/ASSESSING-AND-STRENGTHENING-THE-MANUFACTURING-AND%20DEFENSE-INDUSTRIAL-BASE-AND-SUPPLY-CHAIN-RESILIENCY.PDF …
- Argues labor gaps in US are also troubling. US now has frightening shortage of nuclear engineers. “This is frightening.”
- Also gap in welders and pipe fitters for shipbuilding: “This is part and parcel of globalization and the globalization of our supply chains.”
- Points to dependence on foreign sources for everything from nylon for tents to lithium for batteries. “The question is how did we get to this place?”
- First answer is “budget sequestration” which he blames on “previous administration and Congress”.
- Third answer is decline of defense industrial base due to forces of globalization and “unfair trade practices” of both allies and rivals like China.
- He is now lashing out at “globalist billionaires” and “unregistered foreign agents” for conducting “shuttle diplomacy” with China to pressure Trump into some kind of deal with Xi at G20.
- He argues that shuttle diplomacy is dangerous and would leave “stench of Goldman Sachs” on any deal Trump strikes eventually.
Shawn Donnan
✔@sdonnan
He argues that shuttle diplomacy is dangerous and would leave “stench of Goldman Sachs” on any deal Trump strikes eventually.
Shawn Donnan
✔@sdonnan
He has now put up this chart detailing China’s “economic aggression”… pic.twitter.com/3eltwbZzfQ
- “This is not about buying more soya beans or more coal. This is structural. If you took 25 things off that list there would still be enough things to hurt us.”
- Now mocking Chinese for denying any wrongdoing. “It’s Alice in Wonderland.”
- Now argues that if China stopped stealing IP it would lose its economic edge. If China undertook structural changes US asking for it would be existential change for China, he says.
- He is now dismissing prospects of a deal. Accuses Beijing of wanting to “tap dance” and engage in economic dialogue so that it can keep doing what it is doing.
- Now mocking Promises Obama secures from Chinese for them to stop hacking US companies.
- Deals were possible with Korea, Canada and Mexico. “We can trust them… But when it comes to China it’s Sui generis.”
- He has another go at Wall Street and shuttle diplomacy. Urges Goldman Sachs to take its money to Dayton, Ohio.
- “We will strengthen America’s manufacturing and defense industrial base.”
Next up: Q&A
- Before we move on worth pointing out that what we have seen today is an insight into internal Trump administration debate re China. With his criticisms of “Wall Street shuttle diplomacy” Navarro has been aiming at Mnuchin and Kudlow as much as Hank Paulson et al.
- Navarro now taking on Ricardo. Argues Ricardian economics all predicated on floating exchange rates. “That’s not the world we live in… Clear eyes!”
- Andrew Philip Hunter of CSIS is asking re exit strategy from tariffs? Navarro argues that post WW2 US got into habit of trading off economic security for national security interests as helped rebuild Europe…
- Argues geopolitical case for TPP ignores that it would have devastated auto parts industry and others.
- Tariffs approach will “end episodically” when better deals come.
- Navarro dodges direct question re G20 deal with China. “You’re in good hands with Donald J Trump and Robert E Lighthizer.” Dismisses prospect of deal negotiated by “anyone else”. (IE Mnuchin)
- The Trump culture, Navarro says, is to do things from a business perspective and to seed industries rather than subsidize. “For any of you who think tariffs don’t work .. spend like an hour on the internet” and look at anti-dumping tariffs.
- His job at White House, Navarro says, is to help create a manufacturing sector and jobs for “Americans who work with their hands”.
- Last question: “How do you fit these pieces together?”
- Are there other initiatives coming? Navarro says ongoing concern will be maintaining healthy defense budget. “We are at the cusp of the next industrial revolution… points to AI, space… So a deep concern is that we spend that money wisely.”
- If don’t create growth (and econ security), Navarro ends with, US won’t have tax base needed to fund national security…
His full speech is below:
In response to the belligerent, combative speech of the “Death by China” author, safe havens have spiked, with the dollar surging to 2018 highs, 10Y yields tumbling to session lows…
… and the Dow Jones in freefall
end
Not good: GE collapses to an 8 handle. The price is unchanged from 1995
(courtesy zerohedge)
GE Collapses To $8 Handle – Unchanged Since 1995
Following yet another downgrade, by JPMorgan this time, GE is trading back with an $8 handle for the first time since its crash in the financial crisis (and unchanged since 1995).
Specifically, JPMorgan analyst Stephen Tusa cut his price target to $6 from previous $10. The current target is the lowest among all the analysts covering the stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“While the stock is down about 70 percent from the peak of $30, this move still does not sufficiently reflect the fundamental facts,” Tusa wrote in a note.
Tusa, who has carried the equivalent of a sell rating on GE since May 2016, said he expected continued erosion in the stock, given ongoing fundamental declines in power-related businesses, high leverage and a weak free cash flow.
“We are skeptical around calls for a bottom until management resets EPS expectations that are closer to free cash flow, something we believe they haven’t done for almost 20 years.”
And GE default risk is surging…
We’re gonna need a bigger kitchen-sink.
END
Raid today as stocks fall as well as gold. Yields tumble after a hot PPI.
(courtesy zerohedge)
Stocks, Gold, Yields Tumble After ‘Hot’ PPI
US equities are extending post-FOMC losses following a hotter-than-expected producer price print. Bond yields and bullion prices are also tumbling as the dollar holds on to its gains…
Gold and stocks are lower as bond safe-havens are bid…
US equities are quickly erasing the week’s gains…
The major indices are breaking or testing back to critical technical levels…
As the dollar extends post-Powell gains…
However, anxiety over the hot-flation print seems overdone as Ian Sheperdson notes – the crude collapse means this is the peak for now…
Ian Shepherdson
✔@IanShepherdson
The next big, sustained move in core PPI inflation will be to the downside.
end
market data/
Pay special attention to the following: Graham is correct…the Fed just told everyone that they are on their own and that their is no Fed put
(courtesy Graham Summers)
Crash Time: The Fed Just Told Stocks “You’re on Your Own.”
As I keep warning, the Fed is going to hike rates until something breaks.
And by “something,” I don’t meant a garden variety correction in the markets; the Fed has made it EXPLICIT that it would only consider slowing the pace of rate hikes if the markets entered a meltdown so massive that it actually impacted consumer spending.
If you don’t believe me, consider yesterday’s Fed FOMC announcement. Following the worst month for stocks since 2008… a month in which some 89% of global assets went red of the year… the Fed didn’t even blink.
Yesterday, the Fed:
1) Hiked rates again.
2) Reiterated that it will hike rates THREE more times in 2019 (rather than reducing the intended number to two or even one).
3) Made it clear that it will hike until it sees a negative impact on the REAL economy (the labor market or consumer spending).
Put simply, yesterday the Fed broadcast to stocks “you’re on your own.”
I routinely say that stocks are the last asset class to “get it.” Well they “got it” yesterday, slamming into former support. The stage is not set for a bloodbath as stocks meltdown to 2,100.
If you want a template for where we are right now, it’s “late 2007″… which means 2019 will be when the next crisis hits.
With that in mind, I’ve not only written a bestselling book about what’s going to unfold, but I’m actively preparing clients of my weekly trading service Private Wealth Advisory with our proprietary CRASH trades to profit from the coming market melt down.
These are the EXACT same trades we made in 2008 to return triple digit gains while the rest of the investment world got taken to the cleaners.
To find out what they are, all you need to do is take out a 30-day $9.99 trial to Private Wealth Advisory.
Soft data, University of Michigan sentiment slides and for the first time “hope” also fades along with buying plans
The USA economy is faltering badly
(courtesy zerohedge)
UMich Sentiment Slides As Hope Fades, Buying-Plans Plunge
After sliding across the board in October, November’s flash University of Michigan Sentiment was expected to extend that decline and it did , dropping from 98.6 to 98.3 (though better than the expected 98.0). Expectations slipped lower as ‘current conditions’ flatlined.
Even with the second straight decline, sentiment remains close to the highest since 2004, and the UMich Sentiment Index remained higher thus far in 2018 than in any prior year since 2000…
But buying expectations slipped lower across Homes, Autos (lowest since Nov 2013), and major appliances…
Income expectations have improved (reversing October’s plunge) and consumers anticipate continued robust growth in employment, but consumers also anticipate rising inflation and higher interest rates.
Among the working age population, those between the ages of 25 and 54, the anticipated annual gain in nominal household income was 3.6% in November, the best in the past decade
While these positive and negative changes act to offset each other in the aggregate, younger consumers have benefited most from more positive income trends and older consumers are more likely to complain about the erosion of their living standards due to rising prices.
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ReplyForward
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USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST
Recount looms again in Florida after the Republican victories but suspicions galore about possible vote tampering
(courtesy zerohedge)
Recount Looms In Florida Republican Victories As
Suspicions About Possible Vote-Tampering Emerge
In an election challenge that’s conjuring up nightmarish images of hanging chads, butterfly ballots and George W Bush’s 537-vote margin of victory in the 2000 presidential election, it’s looks increasingly likely that Republicans’ narrow victories on Tuesday in Florida’s senatorial in gubernatorial races could be headed for a recount.
Florida Gov. Rick Scott defeated Democratic Senator Bill Nelson for his US Senate Seat. And Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum conceded defeat to Ron DeSantis in the state’s gubernatorial race. But as votes continue to be tallied, it’s looking increasingly likely that the Senate race could be headed for a hand recount – and the governor’s race could be headed for a machine recount, in accordance with Florida law, as CNN reported.
Sen. Bill Nelson’s re-election bid is likely headed to a hand recount given that the incumbent Democrat now trails Florida Gov. Rick Scott by 17,000 votes, within the .25% margin required for a hand recount. Nelson’s campaign aides believe he will emerge victorious once all the ballots are counted.
And on the governor’s side, Democrat Andrew Gillum – after conceding the race on Tuesday evening – has grown more supportive of a recount of late, in part because his deficit to Republican Ron DeSantis is down to 38,000 votes, within the .5% needed for a machine recount. Campaign aides, though, remain clear eyed about the the long odds that Gillum can make up that deficit.
Recounts, which have not officially been authorized in either race, put the outcome of two of the most closely watched races of 2018 on hold, with Democrats hoping for a miracle that could get both Gillum, a candidate who garnered considerable attention in his campaign against DeSantis, and Nelson, an incumbent who Democrats had thought would win his seat going into Tuesday night, over the finish line with a win.
“On Tuesday night, the Gillum for Governor campaign operated with the best information available about the number of outstanding ballots left to count. Since that time, it has become clear there are many more uncounted ballots than was originally reported,” Gillum’s communications director Johanna Cervone said in a statement. “Mayor Gillum started his campaign for the people, and we are committed to ensuring every single vote in Florida is counted.”
At no point in the statement, though, did Gillum’s campaign withdraw the concession and sources close to the mayor highlight that his outlook hasn’t changed since his Tuesday night speech. It it is important to Gillum, these sources said, that his supporters know they are fighting for every vote.
“We want every vote counted, we believe that there are still votes out there for Mayor Gillum and we want to make sure his supporters know we are fighting for every vote,” one source said.
Gillum and DeSantis have not talked since election night, the source added. Gillum told supporters on Tuesday that he talked to DeSantis and “congratulated him on what we expect will be him as the next governor of the great state of Florida.”
In some parts of the state, controversies surrounding the still-unfinished vote tallies are beginning to draw national attention, specifically in Broward County and Palm Beach County, where elections officials were still counting votes on Thursday, according to the Sun Sentinel.Because of questions surrounding why more than 24,000 people voted for governor, but not for Senator, in Broward, recounts could be coming in both of those races, as well as the race for state Agriculture Commissioner.
But that discrepancy isn’t the only evidence that something might be amiss in Broward County. On Twitter, Marc Caputo pointed out that a teacher at a local elementary school reportedly found a box marked provisional ballots that was left behind from election day. She hasn’t opened it for fear of accidentally tampering with the vote totals.
Marc Caputo
✔@MarcACaputo
In Broward County, Miramar Elementary School teacher Lakeisha Sorey came across a box labeled “Provisional ballots” left behind at the school from Election Day & she’s concerned it might have votes. She didn’t look in the box because she didn’t want to tamper with it
Marc Caputo
✔@MarcACaputo
Sorey said she spotted the box before leaving school about 4 p.m. She spoke to her principal who advised her not to touch it. She also spoke later to a state rep who referred her to me
And while some might be tempted to point the finger at Republicans, as Caputo points out, Broward County is heavily Democratic.
Marc Caputo
✔@MarcACaputo
I know it’s tempting for Democrats to blame Republican voter suppression here, but Broward County is HEAVILY Democratic and the elections supervisor is a Democrat
Marc Caputo
✔@MarcACaputo
In Broward County, Miramar Elementary School teacher Lakeisha Sorey came across a box labeled “Provisional ballots” left behind at the school from Election Day & she’s concerned it might have votes. She didn’t look in the box because she didn’t want to tamper with it
Some critics said this is a sign of incompetence and corruption.
Yossi Gestetner
✔@YossiGestetner
This is INCOMPETENCE AND CORRUPTION: First for “forgetting” it there. Second, who knows how many fake ballots were stuffed in there after the vote? A judge should rule against using any of it.
Marc Caputo
✔@MarcACaputo
I
This isn’t the first time that questions have been raised about the legitimacy of provisional and mail-in ballot counts in Broward County.
Marco Rubio
✔@marcorubio
What’s happening in #BrowardCounty happened just last August,albeit on a smaller scale.
9000 votes arrived in mail just before 7pm Election Day. Few days later incumbent school board member avoids runoff against @rpetty & a judge won by just 400 votes https://cbsloc.al/2C9CJIl#.W-S7sQXapoA.twitter …
Korn, Usan Declared Winners In Broward Tight Races
Broward election workers spent part of their Labor Day recounting some votes from last week’s primary and two close races were officially decided.
miami.cbslocal.com
Whatever the story behind these ballots might be, suspicion is turning toward Broward County Elections Supervisor Brenda Snipes, who was appointed by former Gov. Jeb Bush in 2003 after her predecessor was removed following the Bush v. Gore recount fiasco.
Marc Caputo
✔@MarcACaputo
There’s an increased level of chatter in Republican circles for removing Broward County Supervisor of Elections Brenda Snipes (her predecessor was removed in 2003 by Gov. Jeb Bush who appointed Snipes). But Scott likely won’t do that now that there’s a recount. But afterward?
Some question why Snipes has been allowed to remain in her position after showing a willingness to destroy ballots. A state judge ruled as much back in May, which found that Snipes oversaw an effort to destroy ballots to advantage Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the Democratic Primary, as the Sun Sentinel reported.
Lisa Tarpin@Lisa77720WHY was Snipes allowed to stay in that position after caught stuffing ballot boxes? I believe a judge agreed.
Ronna McDaniel
✔@GOPChairwoman
#Broward Elections Supervisor Brenda Snipes is no stranger to destroying ballots and violating Florida election laws.
Snipes has shown herself to be trouble. Voters in Florida should be paying attention!
Florida isn’t the only race where defeated Democrats are gearing up for a recount challenge. In Georgia, Stacy Abrams, who would become the state’s first female African-American Governor if she wins, has refused to concede as votes continue to be counted.And she has good reason. Because if Kemp, who currently has 50.3% of the vote, sees his lead erode below 50%, the contest will automatically go to a runoff to be held on Dec. 4 – even if he ends up with more votes.
What was that again about Republicans suppressing votes?
end
Looks like we have voter fraud in both Arizona and Florida..no who would have guessed
(courtesy zerohedge)
Trump Warns: Dems Are Sending “Their Best Election-Stealing Lawyer” To Florida
Is Florida gearing up for Bush vs. Gore redux?
It’s starting to look that way.
As Fox News reports, lawyers are arriving in Democratic strongholds in Florida as the state prepares for a recount in Broward County, the epicenter of the vote-counting controversy that led to Bush vs. Gore, and Palm Beach County. Both are Democratic strongholds that have been extremely slow to deliver final ballot totals for Tuesday’s election.
To try and push for a hand recount, defeated incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson has hired Democratic attorney Marc Elias of law firm Perkins Coie to help plead his case and point out suspicious “inconsistencies” with the vote count in Broward, where more than 20,000 voters voted in down-ballot races but left out their votes for governor’s race, in which Nelson’s Democratic ally, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, has already conceded to Republican Ron DeSantis.
The controversy has already attracted the attention of President Trump, who in a series of tweets Friday afternoon warned that Democrats were dispatching attorneys, including their best “election stealing lawyer,” to try and rig the vote after earlier hinting that he might authorize a federal investigation
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump
You mean they are just now finding votes in Florida and Georgia – but the Election was on Tuesday? Let’s blame the Russians and demand an immediate apology from President Putin!
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump
As soon as Democrats sent their best Election stealing lawyer, Marc Elias, to Broward County they miraculously started finding Democrat votes. Don’t worry, Florida – I am sending much better lawyers to expose the FRAUD!
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump
Rick Scott was up by 50,000+ votes on Election Day, now they “found” many votes and he is only up 15,000 votes. “The Broward Effect.” How come they never find Republican votes?
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump
Mayor Gillum conceded on Election Day and now Broward County has put him “back into play.” Bill Nelson conceded Election – now he’s back in play!? This is an embarrassment to our Country and to Democracy!
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump
In the 2016 Election I was winning by so much in Florida that Broward County, which was very late with vote tabulation and probably getting ready to do a “number,” couldn’t do it because not enough people live in Broward for them to falsify a victory!
Trump even praised his former political rival, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, for helping expose the possible corruption happening in Broward County, where boxes of what appear to be uncounted provisional ballots have been discovered at polling stations.
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump
Thank you @marcorubio for helping to expose the potential corruption going on with respect to Election Theft in Broward and Palm Beach Counties. The WORLD is now watching closely!
Rubio has highlighted a range of suspicious developments in Broward, including what appeared to be a mystery delivery of ballots. The senator has also criticized local officials for their molasses-like process of counting ballots in Florida’s senate race.
Meanwhile, in a press conference held Thursday evening, Scott, who is also the outgoing governor, warned of “rampant fraud,” and filed lawsuits against the top election officials in two heavily Democratic counties as they continue to report new votes.
Rubio pointed out in a tweet on Friday that Broward is violating state laws about the tallying and submission of vote totals from mail-in ballots.
Marco Rubio
✔@marcorubio
Under #Florida law county must upload by 7 p.m. day BEFORE election ALL early votes canvassed & tabulated by end of early voting & report results within 30 minutes of polls close
60 hours after that deadline only 1 of 67 counties is still counting early votes, #BrowardCounty
Rubio also pointed out that early voting in Broward County had ended “108 hours ago”, and that the county wouldn’t disclose “how many ballots are left.”
Last night, Scott specifically called out elections supervisors in both counties, Brenda Snipes in Broward and Susan Bucher in Palm Beach.
“Late Tuesday night, our win was projected to be around 57,000 votes,” Scott told reporters. “By Wednesday morning, that lead dropped to 38,000. By Wednesday evening, it was around 30,000. This morning, it was around 21,000. Now, it is 15,000.”
He continued: “On election night, Broward County said there were 634,000 votes cast. At 1 a.m. today, there were 695,700 ballots cast on election day. At 2:30 p.m. today, the number was up to 707,223 ballots cast on Election Day. And we just learned, that the number has increased to 712,840 ballots cast on Election Day. In Palm Beach County, there are 15,000 new votes found since election night.”
Snipes’ behavior looks particularly suspect, considering that she has expressed a “personal animus” toward Gov. Scott? And also has a record of illegal and unethical behavior, including the illegal destruction of ballots.
Marco Rubio
✔@marcorubio
How can anyone have confidence that the #BrowardCounty election supervisor will be fair when last night she made clear her personal animus toward Gov. Scott & towards the states top law enforcement agency when she claimed he “owns” the #Florida Department of Law Enforcement?
Alex Harris
✔@harrisalexc
“He owns the FDLE,” Snipes said. Wouldn’t answer more questions on the lawsuit/investigation. “I’m not prepared to have that conversation right now.” https://twitter.com/stevebousquet/status/1060706130924654593 …
Marco Rubio
✔@marcorubio
Not very comforting to #Florida voters that #BrowardCounty supervisor,in whose hands may rest outcome of Senate & cabinet race has in the past:
1. Illegally destroyed ballots
2. Secretly opened mail ballots
3. Sent voters too many ballot pages
4. Left const question off ballot
Of course, Florida isn’t the only state where Democratic candidates are gaining ground in the vote tallies days after the election ended. In Arizona, Democrat Kirsten Sinema is now leading Republican Martha McSally in that state’s senate race, which has yet to be officially called.
In a tweet sent late Friday afternoon, Trump cryptically warned of new evidence of election tampering in Arizona when he tweeted that “signatures don’t match” on some of the ballots.
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump
Just out — in Arizona, SIGNATURES DON’T MATCH. Electoral corruption – Call for a new Election? We must protect our Democracy!
In Georgia, Democrat Stacey Abrams is gaining on Republican Brian Kemp in the governor’s race. Whatever the outcome, it’s increasingly looking like the final outcomes of some of these races won’t be known for some time.
SWAMP STORIES
Here is the list of people who might replace Sessions on a permanent basis.
(courtesy zerohedge)
Christie, Acosta And Bondi Top Trump’s List To Replace
Sessions
As acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker’s refusal to recuse himself from overseeing the Mueller probe rattles Democrats and even Kellyanne Conway’s husband – all of whom worry that President Trump may finally have found a way to force an ending to the interminable investigation – the shortlist for Jeff Sessions’ replacement is growing longer.
According to multiplemedia reports, Trump is considering no fewer than seven people for the job: Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, Labor Secretary Alex (not Jim) Acosta, HHS Secretary Alex Azar, US Appeals Court Judge Edith Jones and former Attorney General William Barr, who held the job under President George W Bush.
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham has also been rumored as a top pick, and is far and away the leading candidate on online betting markets, though his name has been largely absent from media reports.
Alex Acosta
To that list, some would add Whitaker, who has remained a favorite to remain in the job permanently despite being a politically contentious pick. But according to Bloomberg, members of the GOP’s senate leadership are pushing for Acosta, seeing him as more likely to win confirmation given that he has already been vetted and has a more compelling life story. Acosta, the son of Cuban refugees, went to Harvard for undergrad and law school before clerking for the Supreme Court.
Causing no end of frustration for Democratic leaders, Whitaker has so far refused to recuse himself from overseeing the Mueller probe, despite his public criticism of Mueller’s probe as illegal and a “witch hunt.” And sources close to Whitaker say he has no intention of doing so (and why would he, considering that would almost certainly sink any chance he has of staying in the job). However, Whitaker has reportedly told friends that he would consult Justice Department ethics officials if a specific conflict arose.
Pam Bondi
Anyone who takes the reins of the Mueller probe will have the option of dismissing an agreement between Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein and Mueller that gave Mueller a long leash, which he has used to expand the investigation far beyond its original scope of examining links between the Trump Campaign and the Russian government. Democratic leaders, including Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, have said that the timing of Sessions’ firing is “suspicious” given that Democrats are expected to leverage their subpoena power to open even more investigations into Trump on everything from his personal finances, to his Russia ties. Pelosi and Schumer have demanded that Congress take immediate action to protect Mueller.
Nancy Pelosi
✔@NancyPelosi
It is impossible to read Attorney General Sessions’ firing as anything other than another blatant attempt by @realDonaldTrump to undermine & end Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation.
Nancy Pelosi
✔@NancyPelosi
It is impossible to read Attorney General Sessions’ firing as anything other than another blatant attempt by @realDonaldTrump to undermine & end Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation.
Nancy Pelosi
✔@NancyPelosi
Given his record of threats to undermine & weaken the Russia investigation, Matthew Whitaker should recuse himself from any involvement in Mueller’s investigation. Congress must take immediate action to protect the rule of law and integrity of the investigation. #FollowTheFacts
Even one Republican Senator said she’s “worried” that Mueller won’t be allowed to finish his work.
Sen. Susan Collins
✔@SenatorCollins
It is imperative that the Administration not impede the Mueller investigation. I’m concerned Rod Rosenstein will no longer be overseeing the probe. Special Counsel Mueller must be allowed to complete his work without interference—regardless of who is AG.
One Bloomberg source questioned whether Christie and Bondi, both politically divisive figures, could win Senate confirmation.
But the whims of any future AG pick may not be the biggest threat to the Mueller probe. A court challenge to Mueller’s authority has taken on new significance in light of recent events, according to Reuters.
A DOJ attorney on Thursday spelled out the circumstances under which Special Counsel Robert Mueller could be fired in a court case that took on new significance this week following Sessions’ ouster. After refusing to comply with a Mueller grand jury subpoena back in May, Roger Stone associate Andrew Miller filed a court challenge alleging that Mueller’s authority was illegitimate because he was illegally appointed. That case is being argued on Mueller’s behalf by Deputy Solicitor General Michael Dreeben.
Here’s more from Reuters.
In May, Andrew Miller, who is an associate of long-time Trump adviser Roger Stone, refused to comply with a grand jury subpoena from Mueller. Miller was held in civil contempt. He filed a legal challenge, asserting Mueller has no authority to compel his testimony or to oversee the probe because he was illegally appointed.
Dreeben told a three-judge appeals panel on Thursday that there are checks and balances on Mueller’s activities that make his appointment lawful. One of these is that he could be fired by Whitaker, now acting attorney general, if Whitaker revoked department regulations governing Mueller’s appointment to make him fireable without cause.
The special counsel is not “off in a free-floating environment,” Dreeben said in arguments before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit that attempted to show Mueller’s power is circumscribed by the law.
It’s unclear when a ruling might be handed down in that case. But, until it is resolved, lawmakers and President Trump will be eagerly watching to see if the court might simply eliminate one of the president’s most enduring headaches without the president having to do a thing – or expend any of the precious political capital that, in an era of divided government, will be in increasingly short supply.
Micheal Cohen Gives Prosecutors “Evidence” Implicating Trump In Campaign Finance Law
Violations
It has been quiet, too quiet, for the almost three months since President Trump’s former personal attorney Michael Cohen flipped, pleading guilty to campaign finance violations and other charges, saying he made payments to influence the 2016 election at the direction of a candidate for federal office, potentially delivering a legal blow to the president.
Lanny Davis@LannyDavisToday he stood up and testified under oath that Donald Trump directed him to commit a crime by making payments to two women for the principal purpose of influencing an election. If those payments were a crime for Michael Cohen, then why wouldn’t they be a crime for Donald Trump?
As we detailed at the time, Cohen, 51, who agreed to a plea bargain with federal prosecutors earlier in the day, pleaded guilty to eight counts total, including five counts of tax evasion and one count of making a false statement to a financial institution. He also pleaded guilty to one count of making an excessive campaign contribution on Oct. 27, 2016, which is the same date Cohen finalized a payment to adult-film star Stormy Daniels as part of a nondisclosure agreement over an affair Daniels alleges she had with Trump.
The most damaging statement by Michael Cohen was made when, acknowledging the charges against him, Cohen said he was directed to violate campaign law at the direction of an unnamed candidate for federal office, whom he did not name.
Also, as a reminder, Cohen had secretly recorded one conversation that sounded quite damning at the time – despite it’s inaudible sections…
“Um, I need to open up a company for the transfer of all of that info regarding our friend, David, you know, so that—I’m going to do that right away,” said Mr. Cohen, according to a copy of the audio file.
As Mr. Cohen explained his plans, Mr. Trump spoke over him: “So, what are we gonna pay…One-fifty?” Mr. Trump asked. Mr. Cohen paused and replied, “Yes.”
Mr. Cohen said he would be getting “all the stuff,” meaning the other files on Mr. Trump he had been seeking. They discussed the uncertainty about what might become of the files if Mr. Pecker no longer ran American Media. “Yeah, I was thinking about that,” Mr. Trump said. “Maybe he gets hit by a truck.”
In an Oct. 23 interview with the Journal, Mr. Trump declined to address whether he had ever discussed the payments with Mr. Cohen during the campaign.
“Nobody cares about that,” he said. He described Mr. Cohen as a “public-relations person” who “represented me on very small things.”
But it appears some ‘cared’ as The Wall Street Journal rejuvenates those headlines this morning, reporting that Mr. Trump intervened directly to suppress stories about his alleged sexual encounters with women, according to interviews with three dozen people who have direct knowledge of the events or who have been briefed on them, as well as court papers, corporate records and other documents.
However, as it appears Cohen has offered more details of Trump’s involvement, WSJ notes that taken together, the accounts refute a two-year pattern of denials by Mr. Trump, his legal team and his advisers that he was involved in payoffs to Ms. McDougal and a former adult-film star. They also raise the possibility that the president of the United States violated federal campaign-finance laws.
Very specifically, WSJ’s story brings up two new aspects in the case:
“Previously unreported instances” of Trump’s direct involvement in payoffs…
The Trump Tower meeting and its aftermath are among several previously unreported instances in which Mr. Trump intervened directly to suppress stories about his alleged sexual encounters with women, according to interviews with three dozen people who have direct knowledge of the events or who have been briefed on them, as well as court papers, corporate records and other documents.
And more seriously, the previously ‘unnamed’ member of the campaign that Cohen had originally discussed, is confirmed as President Trump by sources…
Mr. Cohen, who left the Trump Organization to serve as the president’s personal attorney in early 2017, and other aides denied Mr. Trump played any role in the two hush-money deals when they were first reported in the Journal.
Federal prosecutors in Manhattan came to believe otherwise. In August, they outlined Mr. Trump’s role -without specifically naming him – in a roughly 80-page draft federal indictment they had been preparing to file against Mr. Cohen.
When Mr. Cohen pleaded guilty that month to campaign-finance violations, prosecutors filed a 22-page charging document asserting that Mr. Cohen “coordinated with one or more members of the campaign, including through meetings and phone calls, about the fact, nature, and timing of the payments.”
The unnamed campaign member or members referred to Mr. Trump, according to people familiar with the document.
However, despite the excited headlines of the Journal’s story, according to Richard Hasen, a law professor at University of California, Irvine, who specializes in election law, Mr. Trump’s involvement in the payments, by itself, wouldn’t mean he is guilty of federal crimes.
A criminal conviction would require proof Mr. Trump willfully skirted legal prohibitions on contributions from companies or from individuals in excess of $2,700, he said.
When the Justice Department accused John Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina, of using illegal campaign contributions to conceal an affair during his 2008 presidential run, he argued the money was meant to hide his mistress from his wife, not to influence the election.
A jury acquitted him of one charge and deadlocked on the rest.
On Thursday, the White House referred questions about Mr. Trump’s involvement in the hush deals to the president’s outside counsel Jay Sekulow, who declined to comment.
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SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:
harveyorganblog.com 