Nov 12/DOW PLUMMETS BY 602 POINTS/NASDAQ FALLS BY 206. POINTS/GOLD DOWN $4.65 AND SILVER IS DOWN 10 CENTS AS THE USA INDEX CLIMBS TO 97.59/VOLATILITY INDEX CLIMBS A HUGE 3.08 POINTS TO 20.44/ITALIAN BOND SPREAD/GERMAN BUND SPREAD RISES ABOVE 3.00 TO 3.04/CHINA REPLACES THE USA WITH RUSSIA IN THE PURCHASE OF SOYBEANS/FIFTY MILLION APARTMENTS ARE EMPTY IN CHINA IN A NIGHTMARISH SCENARIO/CARIGE BANK IN ITALY BAILED OUT TEMPORARILY BY OTHER ITALIAN BANKS BUT THE SITUATION IS DIRE/MALAYSIA SEEKS FULL REFUND FROM GOLDMAN SACHS IN SCANDALOUS 1MDB AFFAIR/SURE LOOKS LIKE VOTER FRAUD IN FLORIDA AND MAYBE ARIZONA/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1203.15 DOWN  $4.65 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.55 DOWN 10 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1200.60

 

silver: $13.99

 

IT IS MUCH EASIER FOR THE BOYS TO RAID ON FRIDAY BECAUSE CHINA AND LONDON ARE CLOSED AT NOON AND THUS THE CROOKS DO NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT BEING DELIVERED UPON UNTIL MONDAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT:10 NOTICE(S) FOR 1000

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  204  for 20400 OZ  (0.6345 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

10 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

50,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1401 for 7.005,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6452: down  $3

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6459  up 5 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY  A HUMONGOUS 5886 CONTRACTS FROM 211,956 UP TO  217,842  DESPITE FRIDAY’S 29 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  6234 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 6234 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 6234 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 6234 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 77.73 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 29 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 7,020,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 

24,163 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 24,163 CONTRACTS) OR 120.815 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 3013 CONTRACTS OR 15.069 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  120.815 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.14% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,546.89    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 5886 DESPITE THE 29 CENT DECLINE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 5504 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED: 11,390 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 5504 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 5886 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THUS HUGELY STRONG  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 29 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.15 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH  IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.05 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW  7.020 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.059 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 10 NOTICE(S) FOR 50,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT 7.020 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG  SIZED 8895 CONTRACTS UP TO 508,800 DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A DROP IN PRICE OF $16.80).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  HUMONGOUS SIZED 13,908 CONTRACTS:

 

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 13908 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 508,800. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED RISE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 22,803 CONTRACTS:  8895 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 13,908 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 22,803 CONTRACTS OR 2,280,300 OZ = 70.92 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A  FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ FRIDAY TO THE TUNE OF $16.80???.

 

 

 

 

FRIDAY, WE HAD 7692 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 64,479 CONTRACTS OR 6,447,900 OZ OR 200.55 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8059 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 200.55 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 200.55/2550 x 100% TONNES =  7.86% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,410.50  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 8895 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($16.80) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 13,908 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 13908 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC RISE OF 22,803 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

13,908 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 8895 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 70.92 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $16.80 IN FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX????.

 

 

we had: 10 notice(s) filed upon for 1000 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65 TODAY: / 

 

no changes in gold inventory at the GLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   755.23 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 755.23 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY

 

A SMALL CHANGE  AT THE SLV:

A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY 5886CONTRACTS from 211,956 UP TO 217,842  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

5504 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3282 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 5886CONTRACTS TO THE 5504 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC NET GAIN OF 11,390 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 56.95 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW 7.020 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 29 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 5504 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.65 POINTS OR 1.22% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 31.26 POINTS OR 0.12% //The Nikkei closed DOWN UP 19.63 OR 0.09%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP. 27%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9649 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil UP to 60.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.97 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN AT 6.9649 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9616: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

i)This is a riot:  A Chinese company pays its bondholders in ham instead of cash as domestic defaults in China soar

( zerohedge)

ii)China/USA/Russia

The farmers in the Mid-west are not happy with this:  Imports of USA soybeans to China are being replaced by Russian farmers picking up the slack
( zerohedge)
iii)This is the nightmare scenario for the POBC:  50 million empty Chinese apartments financed through investments by citizens.  These investors have kept the price of homes elevated but as soon as cracks start to appear, home prices will collapse and that will go the Chinese “wealth effect”. China’s wealth effect is their ownership of real estate while the uSA it is the stock market
( zerohedge)

iv)A good one from Jeffery Snider on why the Chinese authorities are freaking out.  Although the Chinese economy has not crashed yet, the numbers will not get any better as the global growth has been stymied

( Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

 

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)EU

Populism is rising fast in France where LePen overtakes Macron as well as Hungary and Italy

( zerohedge)

ii)Another huge story: We reported to you last week that Italy’s GDP did not grow at all as it went up a paltry .01.  Now their true deficit proposed by the coalition partners is really 2.6% and not 2.4%,  This impasse  with the EU has caused the Italian 10 yr bond yield to skyrocket past 3.45% and now the spread of the Italian bond/German bond exceeds 3.00% which basically fries the Italian banking system
a must read….
( zerohedge)

iii)Another huge story: We reported to you last week that Italy’s GDP did not grow at all as it went up a paltry .01.  Now their true deficit proposed by the coalition partners is really 2.6% and not 2.4%,  This impasse  with the EU has caused the Italian 10 yr bond yield to skyrocket past 3.45% and now the spread of the Italian bond/German bond exceeds 3.00% which basically fries the Italian banking system

a must read….
( zerohedge)

iv)Huge story this morning:  It has now been revealed that Genoa based Carige bank did fulfill its promise to the regulators in shoring up its balance sheet due to the massive influx of sovereign bonds.  With yields rising, these bond prices have fallen putting many of the Italian banks offside with the regulators.  Now Italy is calling on the stronger Italian banks to come up with the needed 400 million euros of bond purchases of Carige.  This is like the blind leading the blind as eventually all Italian bond yields will rise to their instrinsic value of around 10- 12% putting the entire Italian system in default.

a must read..

( zerohedge)

iv  b)

This is only a temporary fix as it weakens all Italian banks at once
(courtesy zerohedge)

v)UK/EU

The pound and the Euro tumble as it looks like a Brexit deal is not in the cards.  Also Joe Johnson, the brother of Boris Johnson leaves the cabinet as he states that the current government does not know what they are doing

(courtesy zerohedge)

vi)EU/SWIFT/IRAN

SWIFT officially cuts off Iran but there are still waivers outstanding which will allow countries to import Iranian oil for up to 6 months. Iran auctioned off 700,000 barrels at 5 dollars below the official price.

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)SAUDI ARABIA/TURKEY/USA/GERMANY FRANCE, GREAT BRITAIN

Erdogan announces that Turkey has shared the Khashoggi death tapes with the USA and others

(courtesy zerohedge/two commentaries)

ii)Israel

Israel conducts a daring special forces raid deep into Gaza and kills one of Hamas’ top commanders

( zerohedge)

iii)Major war coming as Gaza fires hundred of rockets into Israel.  One rocket has a direct hit on a bus in Sderot

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)Key Bellwether Apple sees its stock fall below 200.00 as cracks are showing up all over the place.  No wonder they halted its quarterly reporting of iphone unit sales.

( zerohedge)

ii)This ought to be fun:  Goldman Sachs crashes to a two yr low as Malaysia is now seeking a full refund for the fraudulent iMDB deal that the firm helped the former president bilk his nation
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

i)USA now exceeds 11 million barrels per day.

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

ii)Oil tumbles as Trump says OPEC should not cut production

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)This is just the beginning:  wait till they get to the rigging of gold and silver.
(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

ii)The following is very important:  Andrew Maguire is reporting that Deutsche bank and other bullion banks are seeking insurance by acquiring physical gold.( Andrew Maguire/Kingworldnews)

iii)Brandon White states that with the confession of ex Morgan trader vindicates GATA et al who stated that these banks manipulate the precious metals

( GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

a)USA/Yuan rises after the US unveils a new anti China iP theft plan.  The move is to protect Micron.  China has been stealing IP for years

( zerohedge)

b)GE is probably the largest derivative non financial player in the world

It’s stock has now collapsed to a 7 handle with their new CEO failing to inspire

(courtesy zerohedge)

c)My goodness:  California’s two largest utilities companies, PG and E and Edison have lost one third of its value in just two days of trading

( zerohedge)

 

ii)Market data/

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)A good paper from David Stockman has he illustrates that the Republicans have now lost their purpose of controlling the purse strings.  He states that the Republicans emphasis at the border is nonsense and hurting the nation.

a must read…

( David Stockman)

b)Trump now threatens California that it will cut off wildfire funding unless he ends their gross mismanagement of forests.

( zerohedge)

c)John Rubino looks at the cost of replacing just one town, Paradise which was completely wiped out by the wild fires

( zerohedge)

d)The  cost so far has been set at 25 billion dollars for damages in the wildfires in California.( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Caught in the act:  Mystery boxes tossed into trucks after missing a court deadline.  Flor. Rep Gaetz forcibly removed while filming.  This is totally unbelievable.  It looks to me like Broward County must redo the election from the beginning as this fraud intensifies.

( zerohedge)

b)This is becoming a big story!!  Provisional ballot boxes discovered inside an AVIS rental car at Ft Lauderdale Airport

What a farce.  It sure looks like they are going to have another election for Broward county and Palm Beach as the authorities can never come up with the truth as to what happened.
( zerohedge)

c)Already the Democrats are ready to let subpoenas fly early next year when they get control of the house. Here is a list of people that they intend to go after( zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 8895 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 508,800 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($16.80 IN FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 13,908 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  13,908 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  13,908 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  22,803 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 13908 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG 8895 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 22,803 contracts OR 2,280,300 OZ OR 70.92 TONNES.

 

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 16 notices standing so we increased by 10 contracts. We had 1 notice served on Friday so we gained 11 contracts or an additional 1100 oz of gold will stand for gold at the comex and these guys refused to morphed into London based forwards as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus for the trouble.

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 2915 contracts  to 328,635 contracts.  January saw a  RISE TO 3543 FOR A GAIN OF 143 CONTRACTS.  February gained 9153 contracts to stand at 119,522 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 10 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 1000 OZ.

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI rose BY 5886 CONTRACTS FROM 211,956 UP TO 217,842 (AND CLOSER THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 29 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 5504 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 5504 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 5504.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 11,390 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  5886 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 5504 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   11,390 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS HUMONGOUS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 29 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// FRIDAY???????

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 13 notices  standing for a loss of 18 contacts.  We had 28 notices served upon yesterday so we gained another 10 contracts or an additional 50,000 oz will  stand for delivery as these longs refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as not accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts. QUEUE JUMPING DID RETURN TO THE COMEX ARENA AS THIS PHENOMENON  (IN SILVER) HAS BEEN THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR OVER 19 MONTHS.

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we gained 989 contracts down to 143,527.  January saw a loss of 49 contracts up to 1011 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 3759 contracts  up to 57,728.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 10 notice(s) filed for 50,000 OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 116,652 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  381,966  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 12-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
10 notice(s)
 1000 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
6 contracts
(600 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
204 notices
20400 OZ
0.6345 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits nil oz
we had 0  adjustment..

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 10 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (204) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (16 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (10 x 100 oz per contract) equals 21,000 OZ OR 0.6531 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (204 x 100 oz)  + {16)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (10x 100 oz )which equals 21000 oz standing OR 0.6531 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1100 WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD DID RETURN AS THE DEALERS QUEUE JUMPING OBTAINING GOLD AS THEY TRY AND PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.2969 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.6531 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  138,146.468 oz or   4.2969 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,013,936.429 oz 259.26 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 12, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 45,373.340 oz
CNT
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
262,667.520
oz
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
10
CONTRACT(S)
50,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
(15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1401 contracts

(7,005,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 262,667.520 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.67% of all official comex silver. (151.7 million/293.9 million)

ii)Into  everybody else:  zero

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  262,667.520 oz

we had 2 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of HSBC:  20,121.440 oz
ii) Out of Delaware:  25,121.440 oz
i

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 45,373.340 oz

 

we had 1 adjustment

i) Out of Brinks:  601,969.580 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.835 million

total dealer + customer silver:  293.974  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 10 contract(s) FOR 50,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1401 x 5,000 oz = 7,005,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (13) and the number of notices served upon today (10 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 1401(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 13) -number of notices served upon today (10)x 5000 oz equals 7,020,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver. We GAINED 10 contracts or an additional 50,000 will  stand at the comex as these longs refused to accept a London based forwards as well as negating the right to receive a fiat bonus. QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER RETURNED IN EARNEST TODAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 42,741 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 139,638 CONTRACTS… absolutely criminal.

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 139,638CONTRACTS EQUATES to 693 million OZ  O99.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.76% (NOV 12/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.27% to NAV (NOV 12/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.76%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.17/TRADING 11.58/DISCOUNT 4.79

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.60″ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONNES

NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.80 A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.29 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.06 TONNES

NOV 1/: 2 TRANSACTIONS:WITH GOLD UP $23.85,A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES OF GOLD TO PAY FOR FEES, INSURANCE AND STORAGE: INVENTORY AT THE GLD RESTS AT 754.06 TONNES THEN A DEPOSIT OF 6.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.82

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 12.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 755.23 tonnes

*IN LAST 495 TRADING DAYS: 179.92 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 395 TRADING DAYS: A NET 19.62 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

NOV 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 281,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.

NOV 7: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.320 MILLION OZ/

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN  18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

 

 

NOV 12/2018:

 

Inventory 324.784 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY./

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.35/ and libor 6 month duration 2.86

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .61

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.65%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.14

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.49

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG

Investors Start Buying Gold ETFs In October In Bullish Shift

Billion-Dollar Monthly Boost in Buying of Gold ETFs Offers Hope to Gold Investors

by Myra Saefong of Marketwatch

Exchange-traded funds backed by gold increased their holdings by $1 billion in October, marking a possibly bullish shift in investor sentiment toward the precious metal.

The ETFs hold physical gold assets, which are equivalent to the fund’s asset value. Investors in the funds don’t own gold directly and thus save on storage costs. The ETFs are constantly buying and selling gold as investors purchase and redeem fund shares.

Gold bars sit across a one kilo gold bar at bullion dealers Goldcore, in London, U.K., on Thursday, March 11, 2010. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

In October, the global ETFs and similar products added 16.5 metric tons, bringing their holdings up to 2,346 metric tons. That’s the first monthly gain in four months, according to data from the World Gold Council, or WGC.

“These numbers are very encouraging,” says George Milling-Stanley, head of gold strategy at State Street Global Advisors, who worked on the 2004 launch of the largest gold-backed ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares GLD.

The numbers “confirm our view that investors are once again turning to gold as a defensive asset, offering some protection against the unexpected, whether these tail risks are macroeconomic or geopolitical in nature.”

Other reasons for holding gold include portfolio diversification, liquidity, relatively low volatility, and improved risk-adjusted returns, he says.

The strong monthly gain in gold ETF holdings follows a net reduction of 103.2 metric tons in the third quarter, according to the WGC. Those were the first quarterly outflows since the first quarter of 2016.

“Flows into gold-backed ETFs are often indicative of investor sentiment in the market, as well as reactionary moves to the price of gold,” says Juan Carlos Artigas, director of investment research at the WGC.

But the market has also “seen inflows into low-cost gold-backed ETFs over the past few months, which suggest there are long-term investors buying gold as a strategic asset,” says Artigas.

Full article on Marketwatch


Related Content

Gold ETFs See Strong Demand In Volatile October After Robust Global Gold Demand In Q3

As Brexit Looms and Stocks Plunging In October – Now May Be The Time to Invest in Gold

 

 

News and Commentary

 

Gold prices hold steady near 1-month low (Reuters.com)

Gold prices likely to rise by year-end: analysts (VietnamNews.vn)

In Bullish Shift, Investors Start Buying Gold ETFs (Barrons.com)

Silver Speculators Reduced Their Bearish Bets To Best Position In 13 Weeks (Investing.com)


Source: Marketwatch

Is this an ominous sign that another recession is looming? (MarketWatch.com)

What plunging oil prices may be telling us about the stock market and global economy (MarketWatch.com)

Global GDP Still Propped Up By A Massive Amount Of Debt (GoldSeek.com)

Nightmare Scenario For Beijing: 50 Million Chinese Apartments Are Empty (ZeroHedge.com)

Big investors sue 16 banks in U.S. over currency market rigging (Reuters.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

09 Nov: USD 1,219.05, GBP 936.96 & EUR 1,075.81 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 1,223.45, GBP 932.02 & EUR 1,071.01 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 1,235.05, GBP 938.64 & EUR 1,074.62 per ounce
06 Nov: USD 1,234.85, GBP 947.75 & EUR 1,083.58 per ounce
05 Nov: USD 1,231.60, GBP 946.61 & EUR 1,081.96 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 1,235.50, GBP 948.00 & EUR 1,079.83 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

09 Nov: USD 14.34, GBP 11.01 & EUR 12.63 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 14.49, GBP 11.06 & EUR 12.70 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 14.67, GBP 11.15 & EUR 12.77 per ounce
06 Nov: USD 14.70, GBP 11.25 & EUR 12.89 per ounce
05 Nov: USD 14.74, GBP 11.33 & EUR 12.96 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 14.82, GBP 11.38 & EUR 12.95 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– As Brexit Looms and Stocks Plunge In October – Now May Be The Time to Invest in Gold
– AMERICAN ELECTIONS FARCE AS POLITICIANS IGNORE THE LOOMING $121.7 TRILLION DEBT CRISIS
– Gold ETFs See Strong Demand In Volatile October After Robust Global Gold Demand In Q3
– Venezuela Seeks To Repatriate $550 Million Of Gold From London
– Big Short’s Eisman Is Shorting Two U.K. Banks on Brexit
– “Red October” Highlights Importance of Rebalancing Portfolios and Gold’s “Very Positive” Outlook
– Alarm Bells Ring and Gold Rises In October As Stocks and Property Fall Globally
– Gold Analysts At LBMA See 25% Return To $1,532/oz In 12 months
– Gold Improves Investment, Pension and Central Bank Portfolio’s Risk-Adjusted Returns
– Gold Gains Nearly 1% On Week As Global Stock Markets Fall Sharply

DAG Video Still Play V2

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

NOV 12

ii) GATA stories
This is just the beginning:  wait till they get to the rigging of gold and silver.
(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

Big investors sue 16 banks in U.S. over currency market rigging

 Section: 

By Jonathan Stempel
Reuters
Wednesday, November 7, 2018

NEW YORK — A group of large institutional investors including BlackRock Inc. and Allianz SE’s Pacific Investment Management Co. has sued 16 major banks, accusing them of rigging prices in the roughly $5.1 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market.

The lawsuit was filed on Wednesday in the U.S. District Court in Manhattan by plaintiffs that decided to “opt out” of similar nationwide litigation that has resulted in $2.31 billion of settlements with 15 of the banks.

… Dispatch continues below …

Those settlements followed worldwide regulatory probes that have led to more than $10 billion of fines for several banks, and the convictions or indictments of some traders.

The banks being sued are: Bank of America, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Japan’s MUFG Bank, Royal Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Scotland, Societe Generale, Standard Chartered, and UBS.

Investors typically opt out of litigation when they hope to recover more by suing on their own. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-forex-lawsuit/big-investors-sue-16-ba…


* * *

end

The following is very important:  Andrew Maguire is reporting that Deutsche bank and other bullion banks are seeking insurance by acquiring physical gold.

(courtesy Andrew Maguire/Kingworldnews)

Deutsche, other bullion banks seeking insurance with physical gold, Maguire tells KWN

 Section: 

12:07p ET Friday, November 9, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

London metals trader Andrew Maguire, interviewed today by King World News, says Deutsche Bank and other bullion banks are buying large amounts of physical gold in pursuit of insurance against the bursting of market bubbles that were inflated in part by shorting gold. Maguire’s interview is excerpted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/whistleblower-andrew-maguire-says-synthetic-go…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Brandon White states that with the confession of ex Morgan trader vindicates GATA et al who stated that these banks manipulate the precious metals

(courtesy GATA)

BMG’s Brandon White: Confession by ex-Morgan trader vindicates GATA

 Section: 

9:41p Friday, November 9, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Brandon White of bullion dealer BMG in Canada, commenting in his “This Week in 3 Minutes” video, remarks that this week’s confession to gold and silver market rigging by a former trader for JPMorganChase —

http://www.gata.org/node/18598

— is vindication for GATA.

Even more so it may be vindication for silver market rigging exposer Ted Butler, but we’ll take what we can get.

White’s commentary is, as you might expect, three minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://youtu.be/YPNi7CqCp20

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Gold confiscation is an urgent threat, Greyerz tells KWN

 Section: 

9:32p ET Sunday, November 11, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz, interviewed today by King World News, notes that gold confiscation is not a “barbarous relic” of history but an urgent threat to gold investors, what with the Bank of England refusing to repatriate Venezuela’s gold

Von Greyerz writes: “Most central banks hold gold with with the Bank of England as well as with the Fed in New York. A major part of the central banks’ gold is either sold covertly or leased to the market.

“When a central bank wants its gold back, it doesn’t exist anymore in London or New York. A bullion bank has sold the leased gold to China or India and all the central bank has is an IOU stating that they are owed gold by the bullion bank. So there is no physical gold available to deliver against the IOU.

“At some point the market will discover that there is a massive shortage of physical gold in the interbank market. When this happens there will be panic and the gold price will shoot up. At the same time the holders of paper gold in the futures market will also ask for delivery. Since there are at least a hundred paper claims for every physical ounce available, there will be a massive squeeze in that market too.”

So, as Greyerz notes, storage of gold is just as important as ownership.

His comments are headlined “Greyerz Just Warned Government Confiscation Is Alive and Well” and it’s posted at King World News here:

https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-just-warned-government-confiscation-is…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org


iii) Other Physical stories

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9649/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9616   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 31.65 POINTS OR 1.22%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 31.26 POINTS OR 0.12%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 19.63POINTS OR 0.09%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.77/Euro FALLS TO 1.1262

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.88/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.63 and Brent: 70/97

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE:  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.38%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.45% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.59%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 3.07: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.39

3k Gold at $1207.00 silver at:14.17   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 24/100 in roubles/dollar) 67.71

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.88DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0094 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1318 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.38%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.18% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.38%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4639

Futures Slide Amid Euro, Cable Rout; Dollar Soars To 2018 High

Stocks reversed earlier gains, turning lower in Europe as U.S. futures pared as many as 20 points of upside in overnight trading before turning lower on Monday, following a mixed session across most of Asia as investors weighed the outlook for equities after a roller coaster few weeks. Volumes were subdued with many banks closed for Veteran’s Day in the US. Futures on the Nasdaq were flat after large-cap tech shares on Friday dragged the gauge down 1.7%.

Europe saw a sharp selloff in both the EUR and GBP this morning, with the EURUSD breaching 1.1300 to the downside, the lowest print since July 2017 as Brexit deal momentum once again faded, while the Italian budget negotiation failed to make progress ahead of another looming deadline.

Euro

For the euro, Italy was the main focus, with Rome facing a Tuesday deadline to submit a revised budget to the EU, though it has so far refused to cut the draft budget deficit, setting the stage for a collision with Brussels.  Bernd Berg, strategist at Woodman Asset Management, predicted the euro would tumble below $1.10 from the current $1.126 “as renewed eurozone and Brexit angst and a diverging economic outlook with a strong U.S. economy versus a weakening eurozone economy will trigger further euro selling pressure.”

The drop in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index was led by household goods and real estate shares. Major European indices were mixed, with Germany’s DAX (-0.8%) lagging, weighed on by Infineon (-5.3%) following a projected revenue decline and SAP (-3.2%) after the company stated they are taking over Qualtrics International. UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.2%) outperformed thanks to the weaker pound and as several big names are in the green (BHP +2.8%, Shire +2.3%, Anglo American +2.0%) outweighing the significant losses for British American Tobacco (-9.1%) and Imperial Brands (-4.1%) following reports of FDA commissioner pursuing a ban on menthol cigarettes. Similarly, sectors are mixed with IT names lagging and energy names outperforming, with FTSE giant BP (+1.8%) benefiting from the rebound in oil.

Italian bonds fell ahead of supply and the government’s deadline to resubmit its 2019 budget on Tuesday where there appeared to be no progress, while Bunds follow gilts higher on a lack of progress in the Brexit talks; The 10y spread to Germany widened 4bps to 303bps while Bund gains were spurred by gilts, which outperform by 3bps as the latest Brexit impasse lowers the chances of a BOE rate hike before November 2019, even as the next 25bps BOE hike remains fully priced in for November 2019.

Markets were also spooked by reports that Banca Carige would need around 400 million euros ($451 million) to plug a hole in its capital base and Italy’s deposit protection fund could fill only part of itCRG.IM was halted, limit down as a result.

That raises the specter of a banking crisis in the euro zone’s third-biggest economy, keeping Italy’s bond yield spread over Germany – the risk premium attached to Italian assets – around the psychologically key 300 basis-point mark. Italian bank shares fell 0.6 percent

Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia equities index also dropped, though shares in Japan and Hong Kong finished in a tight range, while Chinese stocks – for once – bucked the trend closing 1.2% higher. While Shanghai was lifted over one percent by regulators’ promise to simplify share buybacks, MSCI’s world equity index was down 0.3% and Asian markets broadly weakened following Friday’s weak Wall Street close.

China closed in the green even as investors fretted about signs of slowing growth in China where e-commerce giant Alibaba was the latest to raise alarm bells, with the slowest ever annual sales growth during its Singles Day shopping event.

Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) both recovered from the early declines and traded marginally positive although weakness in tech and financials capped gains in Australia, while recent flows into JPY restricted upside for the Japanese benchmark. As noted earlier, the Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) and Hang Seng (+0.1%) were initially lower amid growth and trade-related uncertainty, while the PBoC also recently noted that China’s economy is under increasing downward pressure. However, Chinese markets then recovered as officials continued to pledge measures to support businesses including wider tax cuts and with China also upbeat following record-breaking Singles Day sales (if slowing, as noted above).

With Asia mixed and European risk assets sliding, the Bloomberg dollar index printed fresh YTD highs: “King dollar has staged a return,” Credit Agricole’s FX strategist Valentin Marinov said, adding that investors had piled back into the dollar after last week’s Fed meeting confirmed a rate-tightening path. “Euro and pound are both hurt by political risk and that is aggravating  underperformance versus the dollar,” Marinov added.

Speculators’ net long dollar positions rose last week to the highest since January 2016, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

The pound slumped, dropping below $1.29 for the first time in more than a week following a report that four more U.K. government ministers are on the brink of resigning over Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plans, and that May was forced to abandon plans for an emergency cabinet meeting to approve a Brexit agreement, the Independent news website reported, stoking fears that the government might not be able to secure a deal that satisfied both the European Union and members of the ruling party.

image.png

The opposition Labour Party said that if May’s Brexit deal was voted down in parliament, it would push for a national election and possibly also another referendum. The latest futures data showed net short sterling positions registered their biggest weekly rise in 1-1/2 months. Deutsche Bank analysts, however, predicted more pain, telling clients: “not enough risk is priced into sterling given the parliamentary problems ahead”.

The other big move was in commodities, where Saudi Arabia’s energy minister took some pressure off last week’s oil price drop, saying on Sunday that Riyadh could reduce supply to world markets by 500,000 barrels per day in December, a global reduction of about 0.5 percent. That jolted Brent crude futures up more than 2% to a high of $71.88 per barrel. However, the supply cut may prove to be a temporary solution to falling prices as global growth slows, with two of the world’s biggest economies – Germany and Japan – expected to report a contraction in output in coming days. “Supply-side surprises appear to be the main culprit, but concern that global demand is slowing may also be creeping into markets and weighing on risk appetite,” the ANZ analysts said.

Looking ahead, Treasuries aren’t trading due to Veterans’ Day holiday. UGI Corp. and AXA Equitable are among scheduled earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,778.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 364.86
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 151.66
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 481.78
  • Nikkei up 0.09% to 22,269.88
  • Topix down 0.06% to 1,671.95
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 25,633.18
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 2,630.52
  • Sensex down 0.8% to 34,867.39
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5,941.30
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,080.44
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to 0.387%
  • Euro down 0.7% to $1.1256
  • Brent Futures up 1.2% to $71.05/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 3.033%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 1.586%
  • Brent Futures up 1.3% to $71.06/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,207.13
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.6% to 97.47

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • As well as increasing domestic pressure on May to ditch her Brexit plan or face defeat in Parliament, EU ministers in Brussels on Monday didn’t fix a specific date for an extraordinary summit. There’s still a need for more clarity from the U.K. before the bloc’s leaders convene to sign off a deal, an EU official said
  • Saudi Arabia expressed the need for oil producers to cut 1 million barrels a day from October levels and announced fewer shipments from next month, as OPEC and its allies began laying the groundwork to reduce oil supply in 2019, reversing an almost year-long expansion
  • China signaled tougher management of the yuan, dropping a phrase underlining the importance of market forces from a key policy report for the first time in five years
  • The most destructive series of wildfires in California history have killed at least 31 people and forced tens of thousands more to evacuate, officials said, as firefighters struggled to gain control in swirling winds
  • President Donald Trump left World War I commemorations in France after a weekend that exposed tensions with U.S. allies in Europe over his decision to pull out of the 1987 Intermediate- range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia. By the time he flew home on Sunday he appeared isolated and, by some, scorned

Asian equity markets eventually traded mixed but with gains limited as some cautiousness lingered from the uninspiring performance on Wall St last Friday, where ongoing global growth concerns and continued declines in commodities weighed on sentiment. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) both recovered from the early declines and traded marginally positive although weakness in tech and financials capped gains in Australia, while recent flows into JPY restricted upside for the Japanese benchmark. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) and Hang Seng (+0.1%) were initially lower amid growth and trade-related uncertainty, while the PBoC also recently noted that China’s economy is under increasing downward pressure. However, Chinese markets then recovered as officials continued to pledge measures to support businesses including wider tax cuts and with China also upbeat following record-breaking Singles Day sales. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with price action contained as pressure from the improvement in regional sentiment was counterbalanced by the BoJ presence in the market.

Top Asia News

  • SoftBank to Raise $21 Billion in Wireless IPO to Invest More
  • Pilot Grounded Before Delhi-London Flight for Failing Booze Test
  • China’s LVMH Wannabe to Slow M&A After $4 Billion Spree

Major European indices have turned lower, with Germany’s DAX (-0.8%) lagging, weighed on by Infineon (-5.3%) following a projected revenue decline and SAP (-3.2%) after the company stated they are taking over Qualtrics International. UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.2%) is outperforming amid currency effects and as several big names are in the green (BHP +2.8%, Shire +2.3%, Anglo American +2.0%) outweighing the significant losses for British American Tobacco (-9.1%) and Imperial Brands (-4.1%) following reports of FDA commissioner pursuing a ban on menthol cigarettes. Similarly, sectors are mixed with IT names lagging and energy names outperforming, with FTSE giant BP (+1.8%) benefiting from the rebound in oil. In terms of individual equities, Telecom Italia (+4.6%) are leading the Stoxx 600 after reports in Italian press that the Italian government are pushing a fibre deal with the Co. Elsewhere, Rio Tinto (+3.4%) rose to the top of the UK benchmark following the completion of a share-buyback programme.

Top European News

  • Merkel Bid to Make Germany Inc. World Champion Hits EU Snags
  • Italy’s Industry Output Drop Makes It Harder to Convince EU
  • Hedge Fund Wins as European Luxury Goods Hit a Wall in China
  • Cerberus Plans to Buy Spain’s Altamira, Solvia: Expansion

In FX, the Dollar is firmly back in the ascendency, albeit partly due to underperformance in major counterparts due to specific bearish factors. However, the DXY has extended recovery gains beyond 97.000 and through its previous ytd peak to top out just shy of 97.600 at 97.583, with bulls now eyeing relatively strong Fib resistance around 97.871 ahead of 98.000.

  • GBP – More Brexit-related weakness in Sterling has tipped Cable through another big figure, and just under 1.2850 at one stage, while Eur/Gbp has rebounded further from recent sub-0.8700 lows towards 0.8775 on latest threats of revolt within the UK Government and time running out fast to reach a withdrawal deal with the EU. From a technical perspective, nearest support in Cable comes in around 1.2810, which coincides with a Fib and decent option expiry interest.
  • EUR – The single currency is also under considerable pressure, and after triggering stops at 1.1300 vs the Greenback, losses accumulated quickly to 1.1250 where hefty bids stalled further downside for a while. The catalyst, ongoing Italian-EU budget angst ahead of Tuesday’s deadline for the Government to resubmit a fiscal plan, and another meeting between key Roman officials later today. Note also, 1.1 bn option expiries roll off at the 1.1250 strike, with the same size capping any rebounds to 1.1300.
  • CHF/AUD – Both around 0.4-0.45% weaker vs a generally bid Usd, with the France testing 1.1000 and Aud back below 0.7200 amidst renewed weakness in the Yuan.
  • NZD – The Kiwi is holding up moderately better than its antipodean peer, as Nzd/Usd maintains 0.6700+ status (just) and the Aud/Nzd cross retests support/bids around 1.0700.
  • CAD/JPY – Relative outperformers, or at least keeping pace with the Usd as the Loonie pivots 1.3200 and derives underlying support from a rebound in oil prices, while the latter pares losses from circa 114.20 to just above 114.00 due to its greater safe-haven allure.
  • EM – Broad declines in regional currencies vs the resurgent Dollar, but with Usd/Try slipping back from 5.5000+ levels in wake of Turkish current account data revealing another y/y improvement.

In commodities, WTI (+0.4%) and Brent (+1.0%) bounced back with a vengeance as markets had the first opportunity to digest developments from the JMMC meeting during the weekend. The complex was on track for the longest losing streak since 1984, before Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih said the kingdom plans to reduce oil supply by 500K BPD in December due to a seasonal demand decline. Meanwhile, the JMMC decided not to take decisions on market adjustments on Sunday, with UAE’s Energy Minister noting that 2019 will require a change in OPEC strategy, adding that the new strategy is definitely not going to involve hiking output. Furthermore, in early European trade, the Kuwaiti Oil Minister stated that oil exporters discussed some kind of supply cut for next year but no volume was mentioned. Note: weekly API and DoE inventory data have been pushed back by a day due to US Veterans’ day. Elsewhere, gold (-0.1%) fell to levels last seen in mid-October as the yellow metal tracked USD moves with the DXY reaching new YTD highs in early European trade. Meanwhile, copper is taking a breather from the recent sell-off and nickel extended losses to hit 11-month lows, pressured by concerns of slowing Chinese demand for steel. At the weekend JMMC meeting, the committee decided not to take decisions on market adjustment, while Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Al-Falih said it is too premature for OPEC to discuss production cuts but stated that Saudi will reduce oil supply by 500k bpd in December amid seasonal decline in demand.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing major scheduled due to Veterans’ Day holiday

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to a new week and one where Brexit seems likely to grab a disproportional amount of the headlines. As I was scouring the weekend papers for news on this bewildering subject I stumbled across an article that innocently said that the British and the Irish are the top two countries in the EU for the percentage of the population that drink alcohol least once a week. It felt quite apt given the current situation. Also in the same Eurostat survey it suggested that the Dutch are the least likely to eat fruit and veg every day which given how tall they are perhaps dispels the myth that you need them! The Italians are one of the worst for amounts of exercise (Scandis generally the best) but they have the skinniest population. If anyone in Italy can give me the secret of that equation I’d be delighted to hear it. It must be the Mediterranean diet!

Talking of Brexit and Italy, two of the main highlights for this week are likely to be the increasingly cul-de-sac Brexit scenarios being wrestled and the deadline for Italy to respond to the EU’s budget deficit demands tomorrow. Data-wise we have CPI reports in the US and Europe as well as Q3 GDP in the latter. Also worth watching is Oil which is in the midst of what is currently a record (daily data to 1983) 10-day successive slump in price. After an OPEC get together yesterday Saudi Arabia signalled that it will reduce oil exports by as much as half a million barrels a day in December as producers increasingly worry about oversupply in 2019. It’ll be interesting if they can persuade others to join them ahead of next month’s semi-annual full gathering. Oil prices (Brent +1.68% and WTI +1.21%) are up this morning on the back of this news. Can it finally close higher today and buck the two week trend?

Brexit feels like its entering a crucial stretch and Friday was a bad day for the UK government with the weekend headlines not offering much additional joy. Pro-remain Tory MP Jo Johnson resigned and suggested he wouldn’t support the deal in its current form. The arithmetic around any deal passing through Parliament was already challenging enough without losing pro-remain Conservatives. The weekend media suggests there could be others refusing to vote in favour along those lines with the Sunday Times suggesting four such proremain Government resignations are possible. Basically the deal as it stands is being criticised by both remain and leave Conservatives and also by the DUP.

Meanwhile the Labour Party opposition is highly unlikely to vote for it. So a deal being reached with the EU still seems the easy part of the equation. Sterling is down -0.5% in Asia this morning after falling -0.67% on Friday with virtually all of it after the resignation. As a reminder the DB house view is that not enough risk is priced into sterling given the Parliamentary problems ahead.

Cabinet ministers have apparently been seeing the proposed text of the deal with the EU over the last few days (seemingly without the Irish section not yet availble) and if PM May can win their approval we could see a formal cabinet meeting early this  week to formalise the deal before May makes a statement to the House of Commons. The situation is extremely fluid however especially with the increased backlash internally within the government and with the Irish border issue still outstanding. So these dates could easily (and seem likely to us to) be pushed back. How we get out of this cul-de-sac is very unclear.

Moving onto Italy, the government is due to present its new 2019 budget to the EU by tomorrow after being ask to resubmit. That said, Italy has reiterated that it won’t change its 2.4% deficit target for 2019 so it’s not clear what will change.

As for US CPI on Wednesday the consensus is for yet another +0.2% mom core reading – the 37th month in a row with such a forecast. The annual rate should however hold at +2.2% yoy – a level that the Fed should feel comfortable with and not change path. In Europe we’ll get the final October CPI revisions in Germany (Tuesday), France, Spain and UK (Wednesday), and the broader Euro Area (Friday). A first look at Q3 GDP in Europe and Germany (Wednesday) will also be worth a close watch. The rest of the week ahead is at the end.

This morning in Asia, markets have started the week with a mixed note with the Nikkei and Hang Seng both trading flat, Shanghai Comp (+0.8%) is up while the Kospi (-0.3%) is down. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (+0.4%) are pointing towards a positive start. It is worth noting that today is Veterans Day in the US. The US equity market will remain open but there is a recommended full market close for the Treasury market.

Global equities were mixed last week, with US indexes mostly advancing after the US elections but emerging markets underperforming. The DOW led gains and had its best week since March, rallying +2.84% (-0.77% on Friday though), while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ gained +2.11% and +1.06% (-0.94% and -1.67% Friday) respectively. The NYFANG index fell -1.35% (-1.77% Friday) as tech continues to underperform. In Europe, the STOXX 600 advanced +0.46% (-0.37% Friday), though sectors exposed to China lagged with autos and basic resources down -4.38% and -2.21% (-1.89% and -3.41% Friday) respectively. EM equities fell -2.50% overall (-1.85% Friday) while indices in China underperformed with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite retreating -3.34% and -2.90% (-2.39% and -1.39% Friday) respectively. In fixed income, 10-year Treasuries touched a new 8-year high of 3.237% before retracing slightly, ending the week -2.7bps lower (-5.2bps Friday) at 3.182% while Bunds remained in their recent range and fell -2.1bps on the week (-5.0bps Friday).

The US granting of Iran sanctions waivers to eight countries was a big development last week. They will be able to continue importing limited quantities of oil from Iran without running afoul of US laws, boosting the global supply of oil. WTI crude oil prices slid -5.21% (-1.35% Friday), for their tenth consecutive daily loss, the longest such streak on record with daily data going back to 1983. Brent fell -4.30% in unison (-1.34% Friday) though the spread between the two contracts remains near recent wides around $9.85 per barrel.

With it being Veterans Day in the US (US stock market open but bond market is closed), it’s a quiet start to the week. In Europe, we get France’s October Bank of France industry sentiment index. There is no data of note in the US. Away from this, the Fed’s Daly is due to speak on the economic outlook while the ECB’s Lautenschlaeger, de Guindos and Nouy are also scheduled to speak. EU general-affairs ministers will discuss the latest on Brexit negotiations followed by a press briefing from the EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier. The EC President Juncker will give opening remarks at an economic conference on “Where is Europe headed?”

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.65 POINTS OR 1.22% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 31.26 POINTS OR 0.12% //The Nikkei closed DOWN UP 19.63 OR 0.09%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP. 27%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9649 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil UP to 60.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.97 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN AT 6.9649 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9616: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3 C CHINA

This is a riot:  A Chinese company pays its bondholders in ham instead of cash as domestic defaults in China soar

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chinese Company Pays Bondholders In Ham Instead Of Cash As

Domestic Defaults Soar

Forget PIK – this is PIG.

Regular readers of Zero Hedge are probably familiar with money-for-oil loans. But one liquidity-challenged pork producer is pushing an absurd twist on that concept that has helped to expose the financial dysfunction at many small- and medium-sized Chinese companies.

Instead of receiving cash, holders of local-currency bonds issued by Zhengzhou-based pork producer Chuying Agro-Pastoral Group Co will be paid with the company’s ham, thanks to an agreement reached between the company and its creditors. Assuming the agreement, which was revealed in a security filing on the Shenzen Stock Exchange, holds, the “in kind” payments will only apply to the interest on the bonds, according to the South China Morning Post.

Ham

The agreement was struck after the company failed to repay a 500 million yuan bond that was due on Nov 5. The spread of African swine fever has caused pork demand in China to plummet, creating a cash-on-hand crisis for pork producers. As of Sept 30, the company had 1.3 billion yuan in cash against a short-term debt load of 8.4 billion yuan, according to data from Bloomberg.

This latest near-miss happened amid a record wave of onshore bond defaults by Chinese companies. These defaults have shaken the faith of the country’s bondholders, created anxieties among international investors, who have only recently gained entree to the Chinese bond market, and forced the PBOC to reverse some of its tight-money policies aimed at facilitating a deleveraging in China’s heavily indebted corporate sector.

China

As one fixed-income analyst who spoke with the SCMP pointed out, so-called “payment in kind” typically isn’t acceptable to bond holders. And while the payment in ham only added to concerns surrounding the solvency of small and medium-sized Chinese businesses, investors shouldn’t worry. Because the Communist Party is coming to rescue them.

“Payment in kind is generally not seen as acceptable for debt repayment,” said Judy Kwok-Cheung, director of fixed income research at Bank of Singapore. This implies increasing liquidity concerns for for small and medium-sized enterprises in China, she said.

“Liquidity injection from the government directed at helping SMEs has eased concerns somewhat, but the market potentially needs more,” according to Kwok-Cheung.

To put these payments in context, one gift package of Chuying Agro-Pastoral’s ham costs 8,999 yuan (S$1,780) on JD.com, one of China’s most popular e-commerce websites.

 end
China/USA/Russia
The farmers in the Mid-west are not happy with this:  Imports of USA soybeans to China are being replaced by Russian farmers picking up the slack
(courtesy zerohedge)

As Imports Of US Soybeans To China Plunge, Russian Farmers Pick Up The Slack

As was widely expected, China’s decision to slap 25% tariffs on US soybeans has caused orders from Chinese importers to slow to a trickle as Chinese companies are slowly finding other markets to source the crops, which are typically ground into protein meal to feed China’s massive population. And in addition to Brazil, which has seen exports to China rise as it surpasses the US as the world’s largest producer of soybeans, Russia’s nascent soybean industry is undergoing a boomlet at the expense of American producers. 

Soybean

According to Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, the country’s soybean producers could take over the market share that was effectively abandoned by the US when Trump launched his trade war with China, which, despite a tentative agreement for Trump to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month, is showing no signs of slowing. As RT pointed out, China and Russia, which are already working together to increase bilateral trade denominated in their respective currencies, are also planning to work more closely to foster trade in agricultural goods, including pork, rice, poultry, fish.

“Soybeans are in very big demand in China,” Medvedev told reporters Wednesday during his three-day visit to China.

“The Chinese market is huge as they import about 95 million tons of soybeans annually, including 30 million tons from the US.”

This comes as US shipments of soybeans to China reportedly shrank by more than 80% in September as the bite from the tariffs finally started to impact the market.

“A certain part of the soy market has been made available. We agreed with the Chinese partners to hold a more active presence in this particular segment,” Medvedev said, stressing that the step provides Russia with a good opportunity to boost soybean production.

The latest federal data, through mid-October, shows American soybean sales to China have declined by 94 percent from last year’s harvest. Meanwhile, Russian exports are booming, with Russian farmers expected to harvest a record 3.9 million tons in the current season that ends in 2019.

And as we pointed out earlier this week, this has left North Dakotan soybean farmers in a difficult spot, as orders from their farms have slowed to a trickle.

Soybeans

And though Soybean farmers will receive the lion’s share of $4.7 billion in payments authorized by the Department of Agriculture under its Market Facilitation Program, part of Trump’s bailout for farmers, this aid is only temporary, and won’t guarantee that new markets for American soybeans can be cultivated (though another $200 million has been earmarked explicitly for that purpose).

Here’s a quote from a story in the New York Times:

Kevin Karel, the general manager of the Arthur Companies, which operates six grain elevators in eastern North Dakota, has started to pile one million bushels of soybeans on a clear patch of ground behind some of his grain silos. The big mound of yellowish-white beans, already one of the taller hills in this flat part of the world, will then be covered with tarps.

But for Russia’s soybean farmers, the US’s misfortune has created an unprecedented boom. Over the past 10 years, Russia’s soybean production has been increasing, with farmers expected to harvest a record 3.9 million tons. Russia will likely export 700,000 tons of the product, which, though that sum is significantly less than Brazil, which is the world’s leading soybean exporter, which may sell more than 76 million tons this season, it’s still a huge increase.

Yet while the harm being done to farmers, a key constituent of Trump’s base, could undermine his prospects of winning a second term in 2020, we wouldn’t be surprised to hear some of his Russia-obsessed critics cite this as just one more example of how President Trump is putting Russia’s interests above the US’s.

And taking that logic one step further would suggest that the US trade war is Putin’s fault.

end
This is the nightmare scenario for the POBC:  50 million empty Chinese apartments financed through investments by citizens.  These investors have kept the price of homes elevated but as soon as cracks start to appear, home prices will collapse and that will go the Chinese “wealth effect”. China’s wealth effect is their ownership of real estate while the uSA it is the stock market
(courtesy zerohedge)

The “Nightmare Scenario” For Beijing: 50 Million Chinese Apartments Are Empty

Back in 2017, we explained why the “fate of the world economy is in the hands of China’s housing bubble.” The answer was simple: for the Chinese population, and growing middle class, to keep spending vibrant and borrowing elevated, it had to feel comfortable and confident that its wealth would keep rising. However, unlike the US where the stock market is the ultimate barometer of the confidence boosting “wealth effect”, in China it has always been about housing as three quarters of Chinese household assets are parked in real estate, compared to only 28% in the US, with the remainder invested financial assets.

Source: XinhuaBeijing knows this, of course, which is why China periodically and consistently reflates its housing bubble, hoping that the popping of the bubble, which happened in late 2011 and again in 2014, will be a controlled, “smooth landing” process.  For now, Beijing has been successful in maintaining price stability at least according to official data, allowing the air out of the “Tier 1” home price bubble which peaked in early 2016, while preserving modest home price appreciation in secondary markets.

How long China will be able to avoid a sharp price decline remains to be seen, but in the meantime another problem faces China’s housing market: in addition to being the primary source of household net worth – and therefore stable and growing consumption – it has also been a key driver behind China’s economic growth, with infrastructure spending and capital investment long among the biggest components of the country’s goalseeked GDP. One result has been China’s infamous ghost cities, built only for the sake of Keynesian spending to hit a predetermined GDP number that would make Beijing happy.

Meanwhile, in the process of reflating the latest housing bubble, another dire byproduct of this artificial housing “market” has emerged: tens of millions of apartments and houses standing empty across the country.

According to Bloomberg, soon-to-be-published research will show that roughly 22% of China’s urban housing stock is unoccupied, according to Professor Gan Li, who runs the main nationwide study. That amounts to more than 50 million empty homes.

The reason for the massive empty inventory glut: to keep supply low and prices artificially elevated by taking out as much inventory off the market as possible. This, however, works both ways, and while it helps boost prices on the way up as the economy grow and speculators flood the housing market with easy money, the moment the trend flips the spike in supply as empty units are offloaded will lead to a panic liquidation of homes, resulting in what may be the biggest housing market crash ever observed, and putting the US home bubble of 2006 to shame.

Indeed, as Bloomberg notes, the “nightmare scenario” for Chinese authorities is that owners of unoccupied dwellings rush to sell when cracks start appearing in the property market, causing a self-reinforcing downward price spiral.

Worse, the latest data, from a survey in 2017, also suggests Beijing’s efforts to curb property speculation – which alongside shadow banking and the persistent threat of sudden bank runs (like the one discussed last week) is considered by Beijing a key threat to financial and social stability – have failed.

“There’s no other single country with such a high vacancy rate,” said Gan, of Chengdu’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. “Should any crack emerge in the property market, the homes to be offloaded will hit China like a flood.”

How did the Chinese researcher obtain this troubling number? To find the percentage of vacant housing, thousands of researchers spread out across 363 Chinese counties last year as part of the China Household Finance Survey, which Gan runs at the university.

Gan said that the vacancy rate, which excludes homes yet to be sold by developers, was little changed from a 2013 reading of 22.4%. And while that study showed 49 million vacant homes, Gan puts the number now at “definitely more than 50 million units.

Meanwhile, Beijing – which is fully aware of these stats, and is also aware that even a modest price decline could be magnified instantly as millions of “for sale” units hit the market at the same time – is worried. That’s why Chinese authorities have imposed buying restrictions and limited credit availability, only to see money flooding into other areas. Rampant price gains also mean millions of people are shut out from the market, exacerbating inequality.

In fact, China’s president Xi famously said in October last year that “houses are built to be inhabited, not for speculation”, and yet a quarter of China’s housing is just that: empty, and only serves to amplify speculation.

While holiday homes and the empty dwellings of migrants seeking work elsewhere account for some of the deserted properties, Gan found that investment purchases have been the biggest factor keeping the vacancy rate high. That’s despite curbs across the country meant to discourage buying of multiple dwellings.

There is another economic cost to this speculative frenzy: the drop in supply puts upward pressure on prices and crowds young buyers out of the market, according to Kaiji Chen, who co-authored a Fed paper called “The Great Housing Boom of China.” 

And, as Americans so fondly recall, the result of chasing unaffordable homes for the purpose of price speculation has resulted in yet another unprecedented debt bubble: according to Caixin, outstanding personal home mortgages in China have exploded sevenfold from 3 trillion yuan ($430 billion) in 2008 to 22.9 trillion yuan in 2017, according to PBOC data

By the end of September, the value of outstanding home mortgages had surged another 18% Y/Y to a record 24.9 trillion yuan, resulting in a trend that as Caixin notes, has turned many people into what are called “mortgage slaves.”

It has also resulted in yet another housing bubble: home mortgage debt now makes up more than half of total household debt in China. As of the third quarter, it accounted for 53% of the 46.2 trillion yuan in outstanding household debt.

For now, few are losing sleep over what will be the next massive housing bubble to burst. An example of a vacant home is a villa on the outskirts of Shanghai that 27-year-old Natalie Feng’s parents bought for her. The two-story residence was meant to be a weekend escape for the family of three. In reality, it’s empty most of the time, and Feng says it’s too much trouble to rent it out.

“For every weekend we spend there, we need to drive for an hour first, and clean up for half a day,” Feng said. She joked that she sometimes wishes her parents hadn’t bought it for her in the first place. That’s because any apartment she buys now would count as a second home, which means she’d have to make a bigger down payment.

* * *

What is troubling is that despite relatively stable home prices, the foundations behind the housing market are cracking. As the WSJ recently reported, in early December, a group of homeowners stormed the sales office of their Shanghai complex, “Central Washington”, whose developer, Shanghai Zhaoping Real Estate Development, was advertising new apartments at a fraction of the prices of the ones sold earlier in the year. One apartment owner said the new prices suggested the value of the apartment she bought from the developer in March had dropped by about 17.5%.

“There are people who bought multiple homes who are now trying to sell one to pay off the mortgage on another,” said Ran Yunjie, a property agent. One of his clients bought an apartment last year for about $230,000. To find a buyer now, the client would have to drop the price by 60%, according to Ran.

Meanwhile, in a truly concerning demonstration of what will happen when the bubble finally bursts, last month we reported that angry homeowners who paid full price for units at the Xinzhou Mansion residential project in Shangrao attacked the Country Garden sales office in eastern Jiangxi province last week, after finding out it had offered discounts to new buyers of up to 30%.

Embedded video

Hao Hong 洪灝, CFA@HAOHONG_CFA

Country Garden cut the selling price at one of its residential developments by 1/3. Those who paid full price smashed the sales office. Similar incidents had happened before, and will again. It’s impossible to remove “the guarantee of principal”(刚性兑付)in China.

“Property accounts for roughly 70 per cent of urban Chinese families’ total assets – a home is both wealth and status. People don’t want prices to increase too fast, but they don’t want them to fall too quickly either,” said Shao Yu, chief economist at Oriental Securities. “People are so used to rising prices that it never occurred to them that they can fall too. We shouldn’t add to this illusion,” Shao added, echoing Ben Bernanke circa 2005.

But the biggest surprise once the music finally stops may be that – as a fascinating WSJ report revealed one year ago – China’s housing downturn is likely far, far worse than meets the eye, as under Beijing’s direction more than 200 cities across China for the last three years have been buying surplus apartments from property developers and moving in families from condemned city blocks and nearby villages.China’s Housing Ministry, which is behind the purchases, said it plans to continue the program through 2020. The strategy, supported by central-government bank lending, has rescued housing developers and lifted the property market.

In other words, while China already has a record 50 million empty apartments, the real number – when excluding the government’s own stealthy purchases of excess inventory – is likely significantly higher. It is this, and not China’s stock market, that has long been the biggest time bomb for Beijing, and if Trump and Peter Navarro truly want to crush China in their ongoing trade war, they should focus on destabilizing the housing market: the Chinese stock market was, and remains just a distraction.

To summarize:

  • China has more than 50 million vacant apartments
  • Mortgage loans have grown 8-fold in the past decade
  • Prices are kept steady thanks to constant government purchases of surplus inventory
  • Home prices are already cracking, with some homebuilders forced to cut prices by 30%.
  • Homebuyers revolt, forming angry militias and storm homesellers’ offices when prices dip

For now, China has been able to maintain the illusion of stability to preserve social order. However, should the housing slowdown accelerate significantly and tens of millions in empty units suddenly hit the market, then the “working class insurrection” that China has been preparing for since 2014…

… will become an overnight reality, with dire consequences for the entire world.

end
A good one from Jeffery Snider on why the Chinese authorities are freaking out.  Although the Chinese economy has not crashed yet, the numbers will not get any better as the global growth has been stymied
(courtesy Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

Why Chinese Authorities Are Freaking Out

It’s always a fine line for authorities. There are times when avoiding intervention is more effective than intervention. That’s particularly true when the efficacy of whatever proposed policy is in doubt. If you don’t know for sure that it will work, maybe don’t do it. There are often grave risks associated with plunging forward recklessly.

In other words, officials can and do just make things worse. By pushing the envelope rather than calm markets or the economy they can further inflame them. Crises are never so binary – until they are over. Heading into one, there is so much ambiguity that can either work for you or against you.

Government desperation is one of those where it makes things worse. People may doubt there is a downside or how deep it might be, but if authorities are obviously unsettled that can’t be a good sign. From the official perspective, perhaps there just aren’t any alternatives.

China last night:

“There is desperation among regulators, and sometimes muddled policies are difficult to avoid under this kind of pressure,” said Jiang Liangqing, a Beijing-based fund manager at Ruisen Capital Management. “Investors are voting with their feet.”

In the last week, things have gone from bad to worse but all in the future tense. Right now, there isn’t any sign China’s economy is on the verge of collapse or even contraction. But the number of negative factors which could push it that far are piling up; mostly in the monetary therefore financial system.

The latest “desperation among regulators” this time comes the country’s Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Guo Shuqing, the chairman of the government panel, reportedly said yesterday that one-third of new loans created by the banking sector must go to non-state firms. Only one-quarter has.

On the surface, it sounds like very little, the usual Communist infatuation with top-down economic targets. But at this moment, the implication taken together with everything else suggests an almost bailout.Monetary tightness combined with possible further economic weakness could push China’s corporate sector into the abyss and it appears Chinese officials at the top are really worried about it.

Remember, most Chinese debt, dollar debt, too, was underwritten under very different conditions. It was universally believed that one of two things would ever happen: China’s economy would get back to its pre crisis growth level, or, if it didn’t, the state would make sure it did by doing everything in its power to make it so.

If you as a bank lender (China or eurodollar) suddenly realize the Chinese economy isn’t recovering like you thought and further that maybe it isn’t within the government’s reach to change the baseline, risk explodes. So much debt created the last decade, how much of it might really be at risk of default, or at least very difficult rolling over?

The economic stats all keep pointing in this direction. China’s economy isn’t right now collapsing but that isn’t the problem. Again, what the numbers suggest is we’ve seen the best there is and it isn’t (ever) going to get any better. And it isn’t near enough growth.

There just isn’t sufficient economic momentum anywhere in the world to overcome eurodollar tightening.In fact, the two go hand in hand; lack of momentum leads to monetary caution, spurning further growth creating more monetary tightening. The result is growing desperation in China, as elsewhere, about where things might be going just on the other side of the horizon.

These warning signs accumulate and escalate.

The latest statistics for trade and prices are all consistent with either the low ceiling or the impending rolling over. Chinese exports rose 15.6% year-over-year in October 2018, with imports up more than 21%. As usual, these sound terrific outside of any context. Inside, they suggest what commodity prices are starting to see – if this is the best it can be for China, it’s not nearly enough for either China or the world.

Internally, outside of bottlenecks in food, inflation remains subdued because monetary growth continues to be constrained. Even input and producer prices are coming back down because the (mini)cycle is turning. Reflation #3 was given a fair shot especially in commodity markets, and it just didn’t pan out. The screeching, emotional pleas for globally synchronized growth were never really based in honest analysis.

China’s CPI missed the government’s mandate for the 59th consecutive month. At 2.5% in October 2018, it was the same as September with food prices (including tobacco) still rising near 3%. The Producer Price Index was up just 3.3%, the second lowest gain since 2016.

The economy is stuck, which means markets and financial agents are going to realize that, if this is as good as it gets, the “stimulus” panic in early 2016 didn’t actually create the economy everyone was looking for – and underwriting debt in anticipation of. Thus, not only is the economy trapped, what can authorities really do to get everyone out of it? Nothing. And now everyone knows it.

It’s not really difficult to appreciate why Chinese authorities are so openly freaking.

end

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU

Populism is rising fast in France where LePen overtakes Macron as well as Hungary and Italy

(courtesy zerohedge)

EU Populists In France, Hungary And Italy Continue To Surge In Polls; Le Pen Overtakes Macron

According to the latest polls, the populist wave of anti-mass migration nationalist parties across the European Union is picking up steam, particularly in Italy, France and Hungary as pro-nationalism parties lead their rivals going into next year’s EU parliament election.

As we reported last week, a recent poll from Nov. 4 from the Institut Français D’opinion Publique (IFOP) showed that French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party Republic on the Move (LREM) has fallen to 19%, while Marine Le Pen’s right-wing Rassemblement National (RN, formerly National Front) jumped to 21%, according to Euractiv.

Another poll from Elabe shows RN at 20% while Macron’s LREM at 19.5%.

Europe Elects@EuropeElects

France (European Election 2019), Elabe poll:

RN-ENF: 20% (+0.5)
LREM+-ALDE: 19.5% (-4.5)
LR-EPP: 15%
FI-LEFT: 11% (+1)
EELV-G/EFA: 7% (-1)
PS-S&D: 7% (+1)
DLF-EFDD: 6.5% (+1)
UDI-ALDE: 4% (+2)
G.s-S&D: 2.5% (+1)

Field work: 6/11/18 – 7/11/18
Sample size: 1,002

Meanwhile, a Hungarian national poll released last week from Medián reveals that Prime Minister Victor Orbán’s Fidesz party and their Christian Democratic People’s Party allies have increased their lead to 63% – with the second most popular party, Jobbik, coming in at just 11%.

Europe Elects@EuropeElects

Hungary, Medián poll:

Fidesz-KDNP-EPP: 63% (+3)
Jobbik-NI: 11%
DK-S&D: 9% (-1)
MSZP-S&D: 8%
Momentum-*: 3% (+1)
LMP-G/EFA: 2% (-2)
MKKP-*: 1%
P-G/EFA: 1%
Mi Hazánk-*: 1% (-1)

Field work: 12/10/18-17/10/18
Sample size: 1200

According to Breitbart‘s Chris Tomlinson, Italy’s League – which Interior Minister Matteo Salvini leads, has continued to outperform its coalition partners, the Five Star Movement, since July.

Salvini has been shown to be the most trusted politician in Italy according to a poll from the Giorno newspaper released in July. The Five Star Movement and its leader Luigi Di Maio, meanwhile, have struggled to implement their economic reforms which include a basic citizen income due to pushback from the European Commission. –Breitbart

According to pollster Noto, the League leads with 31%, while Five Star comes in at 27%.

Europe Elects@EuropeElects

Italy, Noto poll:

LEGA-ENF: 31%
M5S-EFDD: 27% (+1)
PD-S&D: 18% (+1)
FI-EPP: 9%
FdI-ECR: 4%
LeU-S&D: 4% (+1)
+E-ALDE: 3% (+1)
PaP-LEFT: 3% (+1)
Ncl-*: 1%

Field work: unrevealed
Sample size: unrevealed

Populists unite

While American political strategist Stephen K Bannon has made strides uniting European populists through his nonprofit organization The Movement, Salvini and Le Pen met last month in Rome and announced that they were exploring a “Freedom Front” of their own to unite the populists among the EU parliament.

Meanwhile, according to Tomlinson, calls to boot Orbán and Fidesz from the conservative European People’s Party (EPP) parliamentary group may result in a solid alliance between Orbán, Salvini and Le Pen.

end
Another huge story: We reported to you last week that Italy’s GDP did not grow at all as it went up a paltry .01.  Now their true deficit proposed by the coalition partners is really 2.6% and not 2.4%,  This impasse  with the EU has caused the Italian 10 yr bond yield to skyrocket past 3.45% and now the spread of the Italian bond/German bond exceeds 3.00% which basically fries the Italian banking system
a must read….
(courtesy zerohedge)

With Looming Deadline Italy’s Populists Defy EU,

Warn Of “Suicide”, “Massacre” For Italy

After the latest GDP data showed that Italy’s economy didn’t grow at all during the third quarter amid a spreading European slump that’s likely inspiring panic in Brussels, the country’s emboldened populist leaders are refusing to surrender in what has become a political game of chicken with the EU over a proposal that calls for an expansion of Italy’s budget deficit to 2.4% to fund pension benefits, welfare programs and tax cuts.

Ahead of a Tuesday deadline to resubmit its budget proposal, which Brussels rejected last month, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was said to be holding a last-minute meeting with the two men who are really running Italy, Deputy PM’s Matteo Salvini, of the anti-immigrant La Lega, and Luigi Di Maio, of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement where, according to local media reports, they were expected to – paradoxically – discuss lowering the country’s growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.0-1.2%% in order to get a budget deal (it wasn’t immediately clear how expecting even slower growth would bolster their case).

However, while Salvini reportedly had a “positive” meeting with Conte on the budget, Di Maio reportedly skipped that meeting and, in a series of interviews given Monday and Sunday, the M5S leader appeared to dig in his heels, telling reporters at Montecitorio that giving up on the populist government’s fiscally stimulative agenda would be tantamount to economic “suicide” that would likely bring about a recession, according to Italian newswire ANSA.

“The only way to respect EU parameters is to make a suicidal budget law that would bring on a recession,” newswire Ansa cites Italy Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio as saying. Di Maio said he was agreeing with comments from Finance Minister Giovanni Tria.

Overnight on Sunday, Di Maio had similar harsh words, saying the EU cannot ask government to “massacre” Italians in clash over next year’s budget, speaking to La7 television. “What is the limit to dialogue with the EU? If you ask us to massacre Italians for us it’s ’no,’ we go ahead with the budget. If you ask us to cut more wasteful spending, to find more resources, there can be a dialog” Di Maio said, adding that “The Italian people have already given too much for European rules, now is the time to be close to the people.”

Following the latest standoff, in which neither party is willing to compromise, the spread between the 10Y Italian BTPs and German bunds widened past 300 basis points on Monday, and once again moving closer to the feared “red line” of 400bps, which many worry could kick-start a dangerous negative feedback loop that could push the Italian banking system toward a crisis.

Unsurprisingly, Italian banks also slumped on the news. Meanwhile, in further bad news for the deficit negotiation process, Italy’s parliamentary watchdog said the government’s growth forecasts were overly ambitious, and that the proposed deficit would probably wind up being closer to 2.6% of GDP. In testimony to lawmakers, Ufficio Parlamentare di Bilancio President Giuseppe Pisauro said that the government’s target of 1.5% growth next year is increasingly “ambitious” adding that the economic slowdown “has become more accentuated” and warning that the government’s plans is “subject to risks and uncertainties.” Needless to say, the EU will be delighted with this testimony.

Italy

And with nothing fixed in Italy (or the UK for that matter), contagion concerns once again emerged, hitting the common currency as the EURUSD breached 1.1300 to the downside, the lowest print since July 2017.

Euro

As the euro slid to its weakest level in 18 months, analysts said concerns about the showdown with Italy were eclipsing fears about a “no deal” Brexit to become the most important factor weighing on the currency.

end

Huge story this morning:  It has now been revealed that Genoa based Carige bank did fulfill its promise to the regulators in shoring up its balance sheet due to the massive influx of sovereign bonds.  With yields rising, these bond prices have fallen putting many of the Italian banks offside with the regulators.  Now Italy is calling on the stronger Italian banks to come up with the needed 400 million euros of bond purchases of Carige.  This is like the blind leading the blind as eventually all Italian bond yields will rise to their instrinsic value of around 10- 12% putting the entire Italian system in default.

a must read..

(courtesy zerohedge)

Italian Banks On Verge Of New Crisis After €400

Million Hole Emerges At Banca Carige

Remember the Italian “doom loop”?

Two months ago we reported that during the first Italian bond market freakout this May over the ascent of the populist due of Salvini-Di Maio to the Italian throne, Italian bank holdings of domestic government bonds rose by a record €28.4bn, more than what was seen during the peak of the European sovereign debt crisis of 2012. Visually, this is what the single biggest month of Italian bank purchases of BTPs in history looked like.

This vicious circle of Country X banks (in this case Italy) buying Country X bonds during times of stress – with the ECB’s trusty backstop – had for years been Europe’s dreaded sovereign bank doom loop. And, as Italy clearly demonstrated, repeated and aggressive attempts by European regulators and policymakers to finally break the “doom loop”, most recently with the introduction of the 2014 BRRD directive, which sought to remove the need for and possibility of bank bailouts, and instead ushered in bail ins, had been an abject failure.

On Monday traders got a harsh reminder of this when Italian banks came under renewed market focus, and selling, due to their inflated holdings of the country’s government bonds whose value has tumbled since May – just as they doubled down on their BTP purchases.

This time, the epicenter of the bank rout was Banca Carige, Italy’s last remaining large problem bank; weakened by years of mismanagement and shareholder infighting, it has fallen behind in the restructuring process that has seen rivals shed bad debts in the past two years. And according to Reuters, healthy Italian banks will be needed to help fill a €400 million hole on Banca Carige’s balance sheet “in order to avert a possible crisis that would further destabilize the sector.”

The reason for this funding deficiency: Carige has failed twice this year to issue subordinated debt due to the high yields demanded by investors, even as the ECB has given it until Nov. 30 to detail how it will fill its capital gap before the end of the year. And with institutional funding markets closed to all but the strongest lenders, Italian banks would take up the bulk of a €400 million euro subordinated bond Carige plans to issue to quickly replenish its second-tier capital, Reuters reported.

If this sounds like taking the doom loop and squaring it, where semi-healthy Italian banks – already loaded to the gills with BTPs – have to fund the bailout of semi-insolvent banks which have succumbed to the doom loop, it’s because that’s precisely what is going on. Additionally, the bank’s leading shareholders are also expected to pitch in in this latest mini bailout.

The restructuring process will then see Carige launch a new share issue in coming months to repay the bond, one of the sources said. The banks that bought the bond will convert the debt into equity by taking on unsold shares, with a view to eventually liquidating their holdings, the source added.

The process will be carried out through a section of Italy’s depositors’ guarantee fund dubbed ‘Voluntary Scheme’, to which all the main banks contribute on a “voluntary” basis to avoid falling foul of European state aid rules. Members of the ‘Voluntary Scheme’ were due to meet at 1100 GMT on Monday to approve the intervention, a Reuters source said.

But while the emergency funds may paper over Carige’s liquidity shortfall, its solvency remains very much in doubt: based in the port city of Genoa, Carige is heavily exposed to the economy of the northwestern Liguria region, which has been gripped by a deep recession. A global slump in the shipping industry have dealt harsh blows to the local economy, which is now also grappling with the fallout from the deadly collapse of a Genoa bridge that severed the port’s main artery to Europe.

Carige last raised funds in December 2017, when it resorted to asset sales to push through its third cash call since 2014. It has raised a total of €2.2 euros in capital in the past four years. It has not been enough.

But wait, there’s more.

Further complicating matters, Carige has been through a series of management changes because its top shareholder, local businessman Vittorio Malacalza, has pushed out three chief executives in as many years. Malacalza in September won a boardroom battle and appointed former UBS banker Fabio Innocenzi as chief executive. Carige has also hired UBS as adviser – in what some may say reeks of a conflict of interest – to assess a possible merger, which bankers have said in the past was made difficult by the bank’s capital and restructuring needs and its bickering shareholders.

Carige’s shares and bonds were suspended from trading on Monday pending the bank’s announcement.

The bank’s stock price closed on Friday at a new all time low.

Meanwhile, Italian 10Y bond yields spiked as high as 3.45%, matching the highest levels of November if still some 35 bps shy of the recent highs hit in mid-October.

And, in the most troubling market move of the day, the euro has tumbled to fresh 16 month lows as traders increasingly expect Europe’s political turmoil(s) – whether Brexit, Italy’s budget standoff or renewed focus on Italy’s insolvent banks – to have wide ranging and adverse consequences.

end
This is only a temporary fix as it weakens all Italian banks at once
(courtesy zerohedge)

Italy’s Banca Carige Gets €320 Million Bailout From Interbank Fund

Update: Italy’s insolvent bank du jour, Banca Carige which was halted on Monday due to events profiled earlier (see below) has gotten a last minute lifeline, and after it was unable to raise €400MM in capital in the bond market, it received a €320MM liquidity injection from Italy’s Interbank fund, which plans to purchase €320m of Carige bonds. According to a statement by Premier Giuseppe Conte, the injection “ensures compliance with the capital requirements” and adds that the aid “sets the conditions for the rapid completion of the planned capital increase and provides the new management of the bank with the conditions for the development of suitable industrial strategies, including the assessment of possible business combinations.”

In other words, Italy’s incipient banking crisis has been postponed for the foreseeable future.

* * *

Remember the Italian “doom loop”?

Two months ago we reported that during the first Italian bond market freakout this May over the ascent of the populist due of Salvini-Di Maio to the Italian throne, Italian bank holdings of domestic government bonds rose by a record €28.4bn, more than what was seen during the peak of the European sovereign debt crisis of 2012. Visually, this is what the single biggest month of Italian bank purchases of BTPs in history looked like.

This vicious circle of Country X banks (in this case Italy) buying Country X bonds during times of stress – with the ECB’s trusty backstop – had for years been Europe’s dreaded sovereign bank doom loop. And, as Italy clearly demonstrated, repeated and aggressive attempts by European regulators and policymakers to finally break the “doom loop”, most recently with the introduction of the 2014 BRRD directive, which sought to remove the need for and possibility of bank bailouts, and instead ushered in bail ins, had been an abject failure.

On Monday traders got a harsh reminder of this when Italian banks came under renewed market focus, and selling, due to their inflated holdings of the country’s government bonds whose value has tumbled since May – just as they doubled down on their BTP purchases.

This time, the epicenter of the bank rout was Banca Carige, Italy’s last remaining large problem bank; weakened by years of mismanagement and shareholder infighting, it has fallen behind in the restructuring process that has seen rivals shed bad debts in the past two years. And according to Reuters, healthy Italian banks will be needed to help fill a €400 million hole on Banca Carige’s balance sheet “in order to avert a possible crisis that would further destabilize the sector.”

The reason for this funding deficiency: Carige has failed twice this year to issue subordinated debt due to the high yields demanded by investors, even as the ECB has given it until Nov. 30 to detail how it will fill its capital gap before the end of the year. And with institutional funding markets closed to all but the strongest lenders, Italian banks would take up the bulk of a €400 million euro subordinated bond Carige plans to issue to quickly replenish its second-tier capital, Reuters reported.

If this sounds like taking the doom loop and squaring it, where semi-healthy Italian banks – already loaded to the gills with BTPs – have to fund the bailout of semi-insolvent banks which have succumbed to the doom loop, it’s because that’s precisely what is going on. Additionally, the bank’s leading shareholders are also expected to pitch in in this latest mini bailout.

The restructuring process will then see Carige launch a new share issue in coming months to repay the bond, one of the sources said. The banks that bought the bond will convert the debt into equity by taking on unsold shares, with a view to eventually liquidating their holdings, the source added.

The process will be carried out through a section of Italy’s depositors’ guarantee fund dubbed ‘Voluntary Scheme’, to which all the main banks contribute on a “voluntary” basis to avoid falling foul of European state aid rules. Members of the ‘Voluntary Scheme’ were due to meet at 1100 GMT on Monday to approve the intervention, a Reuters source said.

But while the emergency funds may paper over Carige’s liquidity shortfall, its solvency remains very much in doubt: based in the port city of Genoa, Carige is heavily exposed to the economy of the northwestern Liguria region, which has been gripped by a deep recession. A global slump in the shipping industry have dealt harsh blows to the local economy, which is now also grappling with the fallout from the deadly collapse of a Genoa bridge that severed the port’s main artery to Europe.

Carige last raised funds in December 2017, when it resorted to asset sales to push through its third cash call since 2014. It has raised a total of €2.2 euros in capital in the past four years. It has not been enough.

But wait, there’s more.

Further complicating matters, Carige has been through a series of management changes because its top shareholder, local businessman Vittorio Malacalza, has pushed out three chief executives in as many years. Malacalza in September won a boardroom battle and appointed former UBS banker Fabio Innocenzi as chief executive. Carige has also hired UBS as adviser – in what some may say reeks of a conflict of interest – to assess a possible merger, which bankers have said in the past was made difficult by the bank’s capital and restructuring needs and its bickering shareholders.

Carige’s shares and bonds were suspended from trading on Monday pending the bank’s announcement after closing on Friday at an all time low.

Meanwhile, Italian 10Y bond yields spiked as high as 3.45%, matching the highest levels of November if still some 35 bps shy of the recent highs hit in mid-October.

And, in the most troubling market move of the day, the euro has tumbled to fresh 16 month lows as traders increasingly expect Europe’s political turmoil(s) – whether Brexit, Italy’s budget standoff or renewed focus on Italy’s insolvent banks – to have wide ranging and adverse consequences.

UK/EU

The pound and the Euro tumble as it looks like a Brexit deal is not in the cards.  Also Joe Johnson, the brother of Boris Johnson leaves the cabinet as he states that the current government does not know what they are doing

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pound, Euro Tumble As Brexit-Deal Optimism Fades

With only weeks left before the hoped-for end of November deadline for the EU to approve a draft Brexit treaty, it appears Brexit talks are unraveling once again, after Theresa’s May’s hard-won concession to allow the entire UK to remain in the EU customs union should trade negotiations fall apart during the post-Brexit day transition period, members of her own conservative party are showing her exactly what they think of what was supposed to be a game-changing breakthrough.

Three days after Joe Johnson (brother of notorious former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson) resigned as minister of transport after lambasting May for leading the UK toward an “incoherent Brexit that would leave us trapped in a subordinate relationship with the EU.”Johnson warned that the UK was on the brink of “the greatest crisis since World War II,” and that “so great is the gulf now between what was promised in the referendum campaign and what is on offer” that another “people’s vote” should be held to allow the public to weigh in. Johnson also encouraged ministers to “mutiny” against the prime minister, who he said was on the verge of “total surrender to Brussels.” After Johnson’s shocking call for what would be, in effect, a second Brexit referendum, something that even pro-remainers in the Labour Party have been reluctant to discuss given its implications for, well, democracy, four more pro-remain ministers are on the brink of resigning.

All of this has revived talk that the UK might be headed for a “no-deal” Brexit when Brexit Day arrives on March 29. In the EU, ministers have failed to agree on a Brexit meeting later this month, shifting expectations for the next summit to December.

May

Given that progress on the deal remains effectively stalled, May has abandoned plans for another emergency cabinet meeting on Monday, where they were supposed to have reviewed the details of a finished draft agreement. Since the outline deal likely won’t be ready by Tuesday, the likelihood that an EU summit will be called to review the final agreement by the end of the month has significantly diminished.

The pound has slipped back below $1.29 on the news, erasing all of its November gains, while the euro has tumbled to a 16-month low. UK bond yields have also fallen.

  • GBP/USD drops 1% to $1.2841, the lowest since Nov. 1, before paring decline; the currency weakened against all of its G-10 peers.
  • EUR/USD drops as much as 0.9% to 1.1240, lower a fourth day; sovereign name that supported the common currency in late October due to holding a double no-touch structure was absent Monday as option seems to have expired, a Europe-based trader says; stops were filled below 1.1300, with focus now on 1.1187, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of gains since early 2017.
  • As pressure mounted on May to abandon her proposal or face defeat in Parliament, U.K. 10-year bond yields fell 6bps to 1.43%, lowest this month, as chances of a Bank of England rate hike before Nov. 2019 receded.

UK

Euro

The pronounced drop in the euro caught the eye of traders given that Brexit fears have mostly been contained to the pound in recent months. However, one analyst offered an explanation peppered with tongue-in-cheek humor: Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, said that speculation around the many possible outcomes for Brexit has become so complicated, that it has become difficult to predict where GBP/USD will end up. So, more traders are taking out their Brexit-related frustrations on the euro.

Meanwhile, chief EU trade negotiator Michel Barnier said later on Monday that no EU summit would be called.

According to the FT, the latest round of frustrations are rooted in the EU’s push to get Britain to accept stringent environmental targets and European oversight of state aid rules as part of the “backstop” plan. Apparently, too many members of May’s conservative party fear that, if trade negotiations falter during the transition, that the UK will be left trapped within the customs union, in an essentially diminished relationship as the EU continues to dominate rulemaking without any input from the EU.

Once again, senior UK government aides are whispering that they’re increasingly “pessimistic” about the chances of the deal getting done given Brussel’s stringent demands. “They are pushing and pushing on everything,” the aide told the FT. This cabinet meeting has now been pushed back three times – on Thursday, Saturday and Monday.

As has been the case for the past two weeks, the controversy surrounding the backstop is that, as it stands, the provision would allow the UK to remain in the customs union after the end of the Brexit transition period in December 2020, at least until a new trade agreement can be forged. But Brexiteers in May’s party refuse to accept any outcome that could leave the UK within the customs union permanently, and negotiations over a mechanism to ensure that this doesn’t happen have largely led nowhere.

Meanwhile, March 29 and the possibility of a “no-deal” Brexit are looming ever-larger, which if nothing else is making Steve Eisman’s (of “The Big Short” fame) decision to unveil his short against UK banks last week look surprisingly timely.

Other analysts, for their part, say that a credible backstop proposal is practically the only thing that can save the pound in the near-term, as fading chances for a Brexit deal are also dampening expectations for a late-2019 rate hike by the Bank of England.

“The pound is likely to continue to trade with increased volatility this week,” Lee Hardman, analyst at MUFG, says in a note to clients. “Given that the remainder of the draft EU deal is apparently ‘95% done,’ if a credible proposal to the backstop is announced this week, it could yet send the pound higher again.”

“PM May will continue to have to fight every step of the way to get her proposal through first her party, then parliament, before it even makes its way across the channel,” said Nick Twidale, chief operating officer for Rakuten Securities Australia Pty in Sydney. “Anything that seems to be slowing the process will lead to further downside for the pound.”

Given these assessments, it appears that the pound could retrace even more of its gains from the past few weeks, which saw it ride groundswell of what has now been revealed to be unjustified optimism higher.

end

EU/SWIFT/IRAN

SWIFT officially cuts off Iran but there are still waivers outstanding which will allow countries to import Iranian oil for up to 6 months. Iran auctioned off 700,000 barrels at 5 dollars below the official price.

(courtesy zerohedge)

SWIFT Cuts Off Iran Central Bank As Tehran Sells 700,000 Barrels To Anonymous Direct

Buyers

As reported last week, shortly after SWIFT caved to US pressure and defied the EU announcing it would cut off a selection of Iranian banks, on Monday, the US Treasury said the Iranian Central Bank has been officially cut off the SWIFT financial messaging system. The disconnection, which comes at a time when Iran’s economy is reeling and its currency is tumbling as a result of restricted oil exports (albeit offset by numerous temporary waivers for top Iranian oil clients), will made it far more difficult for the Islamic Republic to settle import and export bills.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the move is “the right decision to protect the integrity of the international financial system”, and comes after several days planning by SWIFT.

Steven Mnuchin

@stevenmnuchin1

I understand that SWIFT will be discontinuing service to the Central Bank of Iran and designated Iranian financial institutions. SWIFT is making the right decision to protect the integrity of the international financial system.

As previously discussed, SWIFT said it would begin cutting off access to several unspecified Iranian banks. More than 70 Iranian and Iranian-linked financial institutions were sanctioned, including a host of banks that allegedly provided services to Hamas and Hezbollah, and others that provided services to the Iranian armed forces.

While the US could not directly force SWIFT to cut off Iranian banks, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had warned that penalties would be applied to SWIFT and any other firms that refused to comply with the latest sanctions, effectively forcing SWIFT to pick between compliance with US demands or angering top EU officials. It picked the former.

An allegedly “neutral” entity, SWIFT had found itself torn between a US-EU diplomatic row as of late. Scrambling to save the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran deal, EU leaders enacted a ‘blocking’ law in August, prohibiting firms operating in the bloc from complying with the US sanctions. Ironically, in siding with Washington, SWIFT, which is based outside Brussels, may face penalties in Europe.

To overcome what is de facto US veto power on global money transfers, European leaders are planning on introducing an alternative system to ensure that payments to and from Iran can be processed. However, as Reuters reported last week, such a system will not be ready until some time in 2019, prompting Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Sajjadpou to express frustration last week with the delay, saying “what is lacking is both speed and efficiency.”

Meanwhile, on Sunday PressTV reported that over the weekend, Iran went ahead with a second public sale of its light crude oil to international clients through its Energy Bourse in a policy meant to dodge US sanctions and sell the strategic fuel to direct buyers.  

Iran’s Kharg oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf.

The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) had put 700,000 barrels of light oil up for grabs at a proposed price of $65.22 per barrel – $5 below the first sale that was held last week. The auction started at 14:30 Tehran’s local time (11:00 GMT) on Sunday, but finished in less than an hour according to a report by the Energy Bourse published at 15:17 local time. The oil that had been put on sale was sold out in three cargos:two at 245,000 barrels and one at 210,000 barrels.

No names and details of buyers were provided as officials had earlier said the identities of bidders were kept confidential.

The price at which the oil was sold was specified at $64.97 per barrel. During the first round which was held on October 28, a total of three buyers purchased a collective of eight cargoes totaling 700,000 barrels of Iranian oil.

According to NIOC’s arrangements, buyers would have to pay 20% of the total value of their purchases in Iran’s national currency – the Rial. The remaining payments would need to be made in foreign currencies after loading; it wasn’t clear if dollars would be accepted.

Additionally, buyers would have to pay 10% of the value of their purchases in Rials two hours before the start of trading.  They can either buy 35,000 barrels of oil or a multiple of this up to a ceiling of one million barrels. The mechanism is seen as Iran’s answer to the US sanctions that ban the country’s oil exports, among other restrictions.

It remains to be seen what if any recourse the US will implement to offset this direct, and anonymous, sale of Iran oil to international clients.  US officials have said the sanctions are meant to bring down Iran’s oil exports to zero. However, Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected the feasibility of this, stressing that international consumers cannot afford to lose Iranian supplies. Separately, in order to avoid a surge in oil prices, Trump agreed last week to grant 8 states waivers so they could continue purchasing Iranian oil, in the process accelerating the recent plunge of crude oil into bear markets.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SAUDI ARABIA/TURKEY/USA/GERMANY FRANCE, GREAT BRITAIN

Erdogan announces that Turkey has shared the Khashoggi death tapes with the USA and others

(courtesy zerohedge)

“They’ve Listened, They Know”: Erdogan Announces

Turkey Shared Khashoggi Death Tapes With U.S.

From the first week of investigations in the aftermath of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate it was widely reported that Turkish authorities had captured the heinous crime on audio recording as they’d had the consulate bugged, but there was never ultimate confirmation outside of taking anonymous Turkish officials’ word for it.

But now President Tayyip Erdogan dropped bombshell just before he boarded a plane to Paris on Saturday for the 100th Armistice Day celebrations, where other world leaders will be gathered:“We gave the tapes… They know,”Erdogan said speaking of the U.S. and European partners Germany, France and Britain. It’s the first official public confirmation that recordings of Khashoggi murder at the hands of Saudi operatives exist. Apparently Erdogan has more to come in terms of slowly humiliating the Saudis as the timing of this is quite dramatic.

But given the damning nature and absolute certain proof that such evidence constitutes now in the hands of American authorities, why has Washington kept completely silent about it? And how long have they had the audio in their possession? 

via the AP

In a televised speech, Erdogan said Turkey has handed over recordings to Saudi Arabia, the United States, Germany, France and Britain. According to Reuters Erdogan stated confidently:

We gave the tapes. We gave them to Saudi Arabia, to the United States, Germans, French and British, all of them. They have listened to all the conversations in them. They know.

The Saudi story has shifted significantly over the past month as officials initially denied outright that any murder had taken place as they claimed Khashoggi left the consulate, but later floated the idea of an unauthorized “rogue operation” — which has now morphed into Saudi admission of a premeditated attack, but which they’ve still distanced crown prince MbS from any involvement in or knowledge of.

Following Erdogan’s revelation, he demanded the Saudis identify from among a 15-man team that was confirmed by CCTV footage and other records to have arrived in Turkey  days before Khashoggi’s killing. “There’s no need to distort this issue, they know for certain that the killer, or the killers, is among these 15 people. Saudi Arabia’s government can disclose this by making these 15 people talk,” Erdogan said.

Erdogan also took aim at Saudi Arabia’s top prosecutor Saud al-Mujeb, saying, he’s trying to “dodge the column” — or avoid doing his appointed duty of truly investigating the crime. “He [Al-Mujeb] asks for our prosecutor down there. Here [Turkey] is the place where the incident took place, you can discuss whatever you want to discuss here,” Erdogan said.

And significantly Erdogan said he would seek a meeting with President Donald Trump in Paris during the WWI commemorations to discuss the matter: “When we go to Paris, we will try to secure an opportunity and we will realize a bilateral meeting.”

Meanwhile President Trump and French leader Emmanuel Macron agreed during a meeting on Saturday after Trump previously arrived in Paris that the Saudi authorities needed to shed full light on Khashoggi’s murder, a French presidency source said cited by Reuters. However they were also reported to have agreed that further destabilization in the Middle East should be avoided — implying they don’t plan to pressure MbS out of power in favor of another ruling prince.

But again one pressing question that remains, however, is how long have American authorities known of the contents of the Khashoggi murder tape? When did officials listen to it and why have they kept silent about it even as news of the death and investigation drove headlines?

END

Khashoggi’s last words revealed

(courtesy zerohedge)

Khashoggi’s Last Words Revealed As Turkish

Media Plans To Publish Audio Death Tape

A day after President Tayyip Erdogan dropped the latest bombshell related to the Saudi murder of Jamal Khashoggi, saying Turkey had handed over an audio recording of the journalist’s brutal slaying inside the Istanbul consulate to the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Germany, France and Britain, the contents of Khashoggi’s last words have emerged.

Editor for the the Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah, Nazif Karaman, shared some details from the audio tape with Al Jazeera. Karaman said Khashoggi’s last words were:

“I’m suffocating… Take this bag off my head, I’m claustrophobic” – according what he confirmed is the authentic audio recording from inside the Istanbul consulate.

Meanwhile at the conclusion of the centennial anniversary of WWI ceremony in Paris President Erdogan’s office confirmed he and President Trump discussed the Jamal Khashoggi killing on the sidelines of the weekend events.

The two leaders spoke in Paris, via the Turkish presidency.The prominent Turkish journalist for the popular pro-government Daily Sabah described further that the tape confirms that Khashoggi suffocated to death while a plastic bag was over his head in a killing that lasted for about seven minutes.

During the Al-Jazeera interview Karaman also said the group of 15 hitmen responsible for carrying out the murder, and who were reported to have arrived in Istanbul the day before the October 2 killing, spent 15 minutes dismembering Khashoggi’s body.

And notably, Karaman said his newspaper plans to publish segments of the audio death tape. According to the Al-Jazeera report:

Karaman said that Daily Sabah would soon publish images of the tools that were brought into the country and used by the Saudi group.

He added the Turkish newspaper would also publish some of the recordings that document the last moments of Khashoggi’s life.

If this happens it will likely renew the flood of anti-MbS press coverage that occurred in the weeks after the murder was revealed.

It will also raise serious questions for Washington and European officials who have apparently heard the recording but did not divulge or confirm that they had direct knowledge of such absolute certain proof that this was an official Saudi hit ordered at the highest levels.

Francesca Chambers

@fran_chambers

At a dinner in Paris that was closed to press, after Turkey said it passed an audio tape of Jamal Khashoggi’s killing to the United States, President Trump sat next to Turkish President Erdogan. The White House confirms to me that they discussed Khashoggi: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6375909/Donald-Trump-discussed-ongoing-tragic-situation-Khashoggi-Turkeys-Erdogan-Paris.html 

Revealed: Trump discussed Khashoggi’s murder with Erdogan in Paris

President Donald Trump discussed Jamal Khashoggi with Turkey’s president hours after the nation passed on what it says is an audio tape of the journalist’s murder to the United States.

dailymail.co.uk

In a televised speech, Erdogan on Saturday confirmed Turkey handed over recordings to Saudi Arabia, the United States, Germany, France and Britain. According to Reuters Erdogan stated confidently:

We gave the tapes. We gave them to Saudi Arabia, to the United States, Germans, French and British, all of them.They have listened to all the conversations in them. They know.

But as we asked before, the pressing question that remains is how long have American authorities known of the contents of the Khashoggi murder tape? When did officials listen to it and why have they kept silent about it even as news of the death and investigation drove headlines?

It appears the White House may have only come into possession of the recording as early as only a matter of days ago, not long before Erdogan and Trump met face to face in Paris and discussed the issue.

According to the the Daily Mail‘s account of the Trump-Erdogan talks:

The men were pictured at a dinner in Paris seated next to one another in photos released by the Turkish government, revealing a lengthy conversation took place on Saturday evening

“I can confirm they sat next to one another and they discussed the ongoing tragic situation with Khashoggi,” White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders told DailyMail.com.

It will be interesting to see if President Trump himself addresses the audio recording in statements this week – something he may be forced to do if the audio is indeed leaked or published by Turkish press, as the Daily Sabah is now vowing to do.

 

END

Israel

Israel conducts a daring special forces raid deep into Gaza and kills one of Hamas’ top commanders

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Israel Conducts Daring Special Forces Raid Deep Into

Gaza, Kills Top Commander

Major Israeli operations occurred in the Gaza Strip in the night hours of Sunday during which Palestinian medical sources say at least 6 people have been killed in what was a daring Israeli elite forces raid that breached about 3 kilometers into Palestinian territory.

Palestinian officials confirmed an Israeli special forces raid on a group of Hamas commanders in the city of Khan Younis, which the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) say killed suspected Hamas terrorists, including a senior commander in its military wing.

Israeli media sources uploaded a military video of the brazen raid into Gaza:

Embedded video

שמעון ארן شمعون آران

@simonarann

תיעוד התקיפות בעזה-

Hamas sources say the group returned fire upon Israeli soldiers, resulting in unconfirmed reports circulating that one IDF soldier was either nabbed or killed.

Responding to the early reports, the IDF denied that one of its soldiers had either been killed or captured.

Hamas meanwhile acknowledged that a top Qassam Brigades commander, Nour Baraka, was killed by Israeli special forces who entered the area by driving what it described as a “civilian vehicle”.

Embedded video

Anna Ahronheim

@AAhronheim

Unconfirmed video out of #Gaza showing intense exchange of fire between elite #IDF forces and #Palestinians in #KhanYounis earlier tonight

Gaza’s Interior Ministry reported at least one other Hamas commander killed in the shootout which began when the Israeli commandos ambushed the Hamas location in a drive-by shooting.

The Israeli military confirmed that “an exchange of fire broke out during security activities by the IDF in the Gaza Strip region,” but did not elaborate further. Israeli warplanes and drones began striking the Gaza during the raid.

Amazingly, after the shootout the Israeli special forces team managed to escape across the border fence as aircraft laid down cover fire, according to the Times of Israel.

During the exchange of gunfire communities in southern Israel reported up to multiple rockets fired out of Gaza – one which hit an open field – and claimed further “interceptions by the Iron Dome,” according to an Israeli spokesperson.

MrKyruer@MrRevinsky

#Israel #Palestine #Gaza
Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades (#Hamas military wing) released this poster celebrating the Hamas commander killed by #IDF few hours ago.

Meanwhile the IDF spokesman took the unusual step of stating “contrary to reports, none of our soldiers were abducted during the operational activity that took place in Gaza” but refused to comment on further claims of casualties circulating after the raid.

Currently, the region is on edge as some citizens in southern Israel told Haaretz the exchange of fire “sounded almost like a war.” Multiple rocket sirens were triggered in southern Israel — likely, sporadic fighting will continue to escalate in the aftermath of Sunday nights clashes.

end

Major war coming as Gaza fires hundred of rockets into Israel.  One rocket has a direct hit on a bus in Sderot

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Gaza Mortars Slam Into Israeli Bus As 100 Missiles

Unleashed; Major War Is Coming

There’s been a huge uptick in rocket fire out of Gaza on Monday following a dramatic Israeli special forces raid 3km into Gaza territory on Sunday to assassinate a top Hamas commander. And now an Israeli bus has been hit by Hamas fire out of the strip.

First images of Israeli bus destroyed by Gaza mortar fire, via Eliyahu Hershkovitz/HaaretzThe escalation in violence began when earlier in the day Monday thousands of mourners in the Gaza Strip buried seven militants killed during the Israeli commando raid and accompanying aircraft cover fire that resulted in strikes on the strip, which further led to sporadic rocket fire from Hamas.

One Israeli soldier was reported killed during the high risk operation which reportedly involved the commandos entering Gaza by civilian car in order to take out a gathering of Hamas military leaders.

via AFP/Getty imagesDuring the Gaza funeral the crowd chanted “revenge” amidst masked gunmen in camouflage.

A huge barrage of rocket and mortar fire was unleashed Monday after the burial of Hamas commanders killed by an Israeli special forces raid:

Embedded video

Amichai Stein

@AmichaiStein1

#BREAKING: 100 rockets & morters launched from Gaza towards Israel in less then 40 minutes (video: Eliran Hajbi)

Apparently that “revenge” came in the form of a mortar shell fired from Gaza which scored a direct hit on a bus in southern Israel, severely wounding a 19-year-old Israeli. According to multiple regional reports this was followed by a barrage of over 100 rockets fired from Gaza toward Israel within only an hour’s time. Israeli sources have reported multiple injuries and extensive damage from the rockets, many of which may have been intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system.

Embedded video

Quds News Network

@QudsNen

BREAKING | A fire can be seen in Sderot settlement, southern Occupied Palestine, only minutes after Palestinian resistance groups fired more than 100 rockets at settlements surrounding the Gaza Strip.

Breaking video footage shows the Iron Dome intercepting a hail or rockets and mortar fire raining down on sourthern Israeli communities including in Be’er Sheva, Ashkelon and Sderot, where injuries have been reported.

The fresh wave of fighting will now only intensify as Israel is mounting a major response to the attack on the passenger bus.

Guy Elster

@guyelster

#BREAKING Sirens heard in Dead Sea area, as it seems that #Israel and #Hams slipping into a conflict

Guy Elster

@guyelster

#BREAKING #Hamas warns Israel that it would widen the range of its rockets if it would attack in #Gaza in response to the heavy barrages pic.twitter.com/s0ciZemujr

Embedded video

See Guy Elster’s other Tweets

Two Palestinians were reported killed during Israeli retaliatory attacks, however, that death toll is likely to rise as the fighting intensifies.

Embedded video

endHaaretz.com

@haaretzcom

Israel and Gaza on verge of war? Over 100 rockets fired at Israel; Two Palestinians reported killed by Israeli air strikeshttps://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/palestinians-report-israeli-strike-on-northern-gaza-no-injuries-1.6650643 

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Key Bellwether Apple sees its stock fall below 200.00 as cracks are showing up all over the place.  No wonder they halted its quarterly reporting of iphone unit sales.

(courtesy zerohedge)

“iPhone Story Is Showing Cracks”: Apple Slides Under $200 After Key Supplier Plummets On Forecast Cut

Still confused by Apple’s shocking announcement that it would halt its quarterly reporting of iPhone unit sales?

Don’t be.

Overnight, Longbow analyst Shawn Harrison published the latest bearish note on the “neutral” rated Apple, warning that the iPhone story “is showing cracks with contacts now citing weaker iPhone orders year over year and Baidu iPhones search trends highlighting a red flag.”

Longbow was also the latest firm to sound a warning about the company’s most important product line, noting that Baidu iPhone searches “fell off a cliff for October, indicating potential risk of faltering China demand”, a key market for the Cupertino company, which is expected to derive 20% of its 2018 revenue from China.

Additionally, Harrison said he expects sharp iPhone production cuts to hit suppliers, specifically noting read through for companies with >10% exposure to Apple like Skyworks, Qorvo, Broadcom, and ON Semiconductor. Ominously, he added that while the total revenue of Taiwan’s major Apple suppliers rose 15% in October, “we expect a sharp reversal in this dynamic.”

Well, Longbow was right because just a few hours after the note was published, Apple stock dropped below $200 after Lumentum Holdings (LITE) cut its fiscal second quarter outlook as “one of its largest Industrial and Consumer customers” for laser diodes for 3D sensing asked to “meaningfully reduce shipments” for previously placed orders.

While LITE didn’t name the customer, shares of Apple extended their decline after LITE released its statement. According to Bloomberg, Apple is LITE’s biggest customer. As a result of the guidance cut, LITE stock tumbled as much as 31%, while AAPL stock was 2.5% lower, and back under $200, its $1 trillion market cap now a distant memory.

With LITE set to present Monday at 3pm ET at the UBS Global Technology Conference in San Francisco, expect more weakness to hit the tech sector as the company elaborates on what are clearly distressed supply chains resulting from collapsing demand.

There was a silver lining: according to Lonbow, despite the iPhone weakness, “a continued push of ASPs across devices, ongoing strength in services, Watch, and AirPods, and aggressive capital return will drive FY19 EPS growth.” The problem is that Apple’s bet to gamble everything on premium – and rising – pricing will prove to be a disaster during the next downturn when demand for $1000+ phones and $2000+ notebooks will fall off a cliff.

end
This ought to be fun:  Goldman Sachs crashes to a two yr low as Malaysia is now seeking a full refund for the fraudulent iMDB deal that the firm helped the former president bilk his nation
(courtesy zerohedge)

Goldman Crashes To 2-Year Lows As Malaysia Seeks “Full Refund” On 1MDB Deals

While US Financial stocks are generally a lot lower post-Midterms (Maxine Waters?), there is one TBTF bank that is drastically undeperforming…

Goldman Sachs is down over 10% in the last two days as 1MDB deal drama comes back to bite them.

As Bloomberg reports, Malaysian Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng said the nation is seeking a full refund of all the fees it paid to Goldman Sachs for arranging billions of dollars of deals for troubled state fund 1MDB.

Goldman has “admitted culpability” after former banker Tim Leissner entered a guilty plea for his role in the scandal, Lim said in a Monday interview with radio station BFM. Lim is banking on the firm’s “indirect” admission of wrongdoing and U.S. law against kleptocracy, to help Malaysia recoup fees that include nearly $600 million that it paid Goldman for three bond deals. Goldman Sachs hasn’t publicly admitted any wrongdoing and has said it’s cooperating with authorities.

“I would be happy if we can get around 30 percent net after all the expenses incurred” from the entire 1MDB scandal, he said, referring to the overall amount of funds thought to be lost through the troubled state fund.

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has set a goal of bringing back $4.5 billion.

For now shareholders are concerned… Sending the stock to its lowest since mid-November 2016…

Seems like Mr. Blankfein jumped ship right in time.

7  OIL ISSUES

Oil tumbles as Trump says OPEC should not cut production

(courtesy zerohedge)

Oil Price Tumbles As Trump Says OPEC Shouldn’t Cut Production

Having surged higher at last night’s futures open on the heels of headlines about Saudi’s about-face on production, President Trump has reversed those gains as he tweeted: “Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!,”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!

Sending WTI back to unchanged…

“If we believe that Saudi Arabia will cut supply we’ll see what happens in December, but this will tighten up the market and should rally things up a bit,” said Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto.

“I wouldn’t be too surprised to see crude head back closer to recent highs, maybe not to the October levels, but certainly off the recent lows.”

For now, that’s not happening.

end

USA now exceeds 11 million barrels per day.

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Permian Drillers Prepare To Go Into Overdrive In 2019

Profile picture for user Tyler Durden

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via Oilprice.com,

In recent months, pipeline capacity shortage in the Permian has been the center of shale drillers and oil analysts’ attention as much as the surging production from this fastest-growing U.S. oil region that has helped total American crude oil production to exceed 11 million bpd for the first time ever.

Many of the big U.S. companies – including supermajors Exxon and Chevron – boosted their Permian oil production in the third quarter as they have firm capacity commitments and integrate Permian production with downstream operations.

Many smaller drillers, however, are going on a ‘frac holiday’—as Carrizo Oil & Gas said in its Q3 earnings release this week—in some of their Permian acreage by the end of this year, to sit out the worst of the pipeline constraints, and to be ready to return to completions next year.

The majority of company executives and industry analysts expect that the Permian bottlenecks and the wide WTI Midland to Cushing price differential are transitory issues that will go away by the end of 2019, when many of the new pipelines out of the Permian will have started operations.  

Until then, some smaller drillers like Carrizo are on a ‘frac holiday’ this month and next. Commenting on the Q3 performance, Carrizo’s President and CEO S.P. “Chip” Johnson said that the company had been drilling more in the Eagle Ford than in the Permian in order to capture higher pricing from the Eagle Ford oil.

“We expect our activity to remain weighted to the Eagle Ford Shale until the second half of 2019, when we plan to begin moving rigs back to the Delaware Basin,” Johnson said. In the earnings call, he noted that the shift to the Eagle Ford “shielded us from the dramatic widening of differentials in the Permian Basin during the quarter.”

The Permian oil differentials are less of an issue for the bigger companies. Pioneer Natural Resources increased Q3 Permian production by 5 percent over Q2, benefiting from firm transportation contracts that helped it deliver 165,000 bpd of Permian oil to the Gulf Coast. Pioneer is also boosting firm transportation capacity to the Gulf Coast to 185,000 bpd this month. “Effective September 2018, Pioneer has no exposure to Midland oil pricing through 2020,” the company said this week.

Diamondback Energy has doubled its volume commitment to 100,000 bpd to the Gray Oak Pipeline expected to be in service by the end of 2019. Diamondback now has a total of 200,000 bpd volume commitment to new pipelines, including Gray Oak and EPIC Crude Oil Pipeline, it said in the Q3 earnings statement.

Most oil and gas firms expect the bottlenecks to have eased by the end of next year, according to the Third Quarter 2018 Dallas Fed Energy Survey. More than half, or 56 percent, of the 168 oil and gas executives surveyed in September 12–20 expect that new crude oil pipeline capacity will be enough to ease the current constraints by the end of next year. The other 44 percent see new capacity sufficient to ease the bottlenecks in 2020 or later. The most frequent response—selected by 27 percent of executives—was the fourth quarter of 2019, the second most frequent response was Q3 2019 and the third most frequent was Q1 2020.

A total of 70 percent of executives surveyed expect the oil price differentials between WTI Midland and Cushing to have a slightly negative impact on oil production growth in the Permian over the next six months. That’s compared to 17 percent who see significantly negative impacts, and 12 percent expect no impact.

Jeff Miller, CEO at Halliburton, the leading fracking services provider in the United States, said last month that the current softening of demand in North America – a combination of offtake capacity constraints and customers’ budget exhaustion – is a temporary issue. Permian constraints will be overcome by the end next year, Miller told Bloomberg TV earlier this week.

Shale pioneer Mark Papa, currently chairman and CEO at Delaware Basin-focused Centennial Resource Development, also sees pipeline constraints overcome by the end of 2019, but warned that constraints in the longer term could be coming with shortage of workers.

“Some of the other issues like personnel and water handling issues are some of the more long term issues,” Papa has recently told Bloomberg.

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1262 DOWN .0072 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.88  UP 0.134  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2867 DOWN   0.0086  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3200  DOWN .0006 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 72 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1262; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 31.65 POINTS OR 1.22%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 31.26 POINTS OR 0.12% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.27% /EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED UP 19.63 POINTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 31.26 POINTS OR 0.12% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.65POINTS OR 122%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.27%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 19.63 POINTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1207.20.

silver:$14.15

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.18% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.38 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.40 UP 50  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.95% UP 1    in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12%  DOWN 0  BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.60% DOWN 0 IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.44 up 4   POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 182 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.40%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 3.04% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM.

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1244 DOWN .0088 or 89 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113.80 UP .050 OR 5 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2849 DOWN .0108( POUND DOWN 108 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 4 basis points to 1.3211

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 89 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1244

The Yen FELL to 113.80 for a LOSS of 15Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST 108 basis points, trading at 1.2849/

The Canadian dollar LOST 4 basis points to 1.3211

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9636-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9656(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4615

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.12%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 0 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 3.18 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.38 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.49 UP 59 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 52.76 POINTS OR 0.74%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 203.72 POINTS  OR 1.77%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 47.66 POINTS OR 0.93%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 58.50 POINTS OR 0.64%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 202.19 POINTS OR 1.05%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 60.75 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 70.89 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    67.64  THE CROSS LOWER BY .84 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 31 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.4615 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.40 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:58.81

 

BRENT:69.25

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.18%.. VERY deadly….and rate fell by a tiny amount despite the huge drop in the dow

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.38%/. VERY .deadly…tiny drop despite the huge drop in the Dow/nasdaq

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1233 ( DOWN 100 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.78 UP .034 (YEN DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.59 up 68 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2853 DOWN 105 POINTS FROM FRIDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4631

the Russian rouble:  67.89 UP 6 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 6 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3239 DOWN 31 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9636  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9660 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.40%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 602.12 POINTS OR 2.52%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 206.03  points or 2.78% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.  CLOSED UP  0.64

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.6181%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/big jump today

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Dollar Jumps, Stocks Dump As Crude Carnage Continues

RIP Stan Lee…

China had an extremely exuberant session overnight with CHINEXT (China’s small cap/tech index) exploding almost 3.5% higher…

But don’t get too excited about CHINEXT…

 

Ugly day in Europe with DAX leading the way lower even as Italy and Brexit anxiety is back in the headlines…

European banks were ugly as Carige was bailed out…

 

US equity futures extended Friday’s late-bounce gains in the overnight session but started to fade quickly ahead of the cash open and extended those losses as AAPL, GS, and trade headlines sparked notable selling…

 

With no bond market for the algos to pivot off, stocks dropped, stabilized after the European close, then dumped into the last few minutes – Nasdaq was worst on the day

Weakness in stock indices started off driven by Tech but was dragged lower into the close by Oil…

 

The Dow broke back below its 100DMA and the rest of the majors all broke back below their 200DMA (after the machines ramped to close them on Friday)…

 

Stocks were dropped on lower than average volumes (around 20% below avg – though higher than during last week’s rally), and liquidity remains terrible…

 

And as we warned yesterday, with gamma imbalanced, selling is begetting selling…

VIX is back above 20 as it has erased its post-Midterms uncertainty drop… (and VIX term structure is inverted once again)

 

Stocks have erased post-Midterms gains…

 

AAPL was hit hard on demand headlines from a supplier (LITE), testing down to its 200DMA (AAPL knocked 60 points off the Dow)

 

Goldman was battered… biggest 2-day drop since April 2010. (GS knocked over 100 points alone off the Dow)

 

GE was a bloodbath…despite the CEO’s best efforts…dropping to a $7 handle for the first time since its crash lows in March 2009…

 

FANG was FUBAR…

 

California Utilities were burned…

 

Energy stocks rolled over – starting to catch down to the ugliness in the oil complex…

 

The cash bond market was closed for Veterans Day but Treasury futures imply a 3bps compression in 10Y yields on the day…

 

The Dollar was up for the 3rd day in a row to the highest since May 2017 (this 3-day jump is the biggest since April_

 

Offshore Yuan weakened for the 5th day in the 6, almost erasing last week’s short-squeeze surge… (hints at another squeeze coming soon from fwd points action)

 

Cable was ugly as Brexit headlines dominated the flow once again…

 

Cryptos mixed with Bitcoin unch, Bitcoin Cash down and Ripple up…

 

Dollar gains sent commodities lower across the board…

 

Oil rebounded modestly on the day on Saudi production cut headlines but as Trump tweeted against OPEC cuts and WTI crashed back into the red to a $58 handle for the first time since Feb… (11th day in a row – another record losing streak)

 

Gold in Yuan has erased 50% of its recent re-valuation (Yuan strengthening)…

 

Finally we remind some who question why would anyone sell the “no brainer” stocks like Apple and Goldman? Simple – they are forced to as redemption deadlines loom.

 

 

market trading

USA/Yuan rises after the US unveils a new anti China iP theft plan.  The move is to protect Micron.  China has been stealing IP for years

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Tumble After US Unveils New Anti-China-IP-

Theft Plan

US equity futures are stumbling lower following a WSJ report that the Trump administration is expending its China trade war beyond tariffs to counter IP theft.

Nasdaq futures are leading the decline..

Specifically, as The Wall Street Journal reports, the opening move in the new strategy came in the form of a recent crackdown by the Commerce and Justice Departments on a Chinese state-owned chip maker, which the U.S. administration accused of stealing trade secrets from Idaho-based Micron,the people said.

U.S. officials are looking at additional cases where they could use a similar combination of tools to fight Chinese IP theft, the people added. The officials hope that the unprecedented actions taken to defend Micron – the largest American memory-chip maker – will encourage more U.S. companies to work with the government to counter intellectual property theft.

More pointedly, WSJ notes that the initiative opens a new front in Washington’s commercial standoff with Beijing, after the world’s two largest economies engaged in a tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs on each others’ imports over U.S. accusations of unfair Chinese trading practices.

As we note previously, it is clear from this escalation that Navarro is very much in charge of the trade ‘discussions’ still; and one thing is for sure – as we remember 100 years ago the war to end all wars – a new war is just getting going on a very different front.

Yuan is not really reacting to these headlines (after tumbling overnight)…

For now, the post-Midterms gains have been erased…

end

GE is probably the largest derivative non financial player in the world

It’s stock has now collapsed to a 7 handle with their new CEO failing to inspire

(courtesy zerohedge)

GE Collapses To A $7 Handle After CEO Fails To Inspire

Having blown through $9 last week, GE is crashing back below $8 for the first time since March 2009’s freefall after new CEO Lawrence Culp failed to inspire optimism in a CNBC interview…

General Electric’s most important goal is cutting its debt levels, Chief Executive Officer Larry Culp said in his first public comments since the company spooked investors with its third-quarter earnings report last month.

“We have no higher priority right now than bringing those leverage levels down,” Culp said in an interview Monday with CNBC.

“I think we’ve got plenty of opportunities through asset sales to do that.’’

And investors are not impressed…

As we noted previously, GE is now unchanged since 1995… ($5.7279 was intraday lows in March 2009 and a $6.66 closing low on March 5th 2009))

And default risk is spiking…

end

My goodness:  California’s two largest utilities companies, PG and E and Edison have lost one third of its value in just two days of trading

(courtesy zerohedge)

California Utilities Implode, Lose A Third Of Their Value In 2 Days On Massive Fire Damages

With the two giant wildfires in northern and southern California projected to result in $25 billion in damages, the shares of California’s two largest utility owners have crashed the most in  nearly two decades – since the power crisis at the start of the century.

Trading in PG&E was briefly halted after shares crashed for a second day, triggering a volatility break. The stock has lost 44% of its value in the two trading days since the Camp Fire broke out north of San Francisco last week.

Meanwhile, Edison International is down 30% since a fire broke out near Los Angeles. According to Bloomberg, for both companies, the two-day declines are among the steepest since power shortages triggered rolling blackouts across the state in 2000 to 2001.

The sellside was quick to slam the companies: Evercore ISI cut PG&E’s PT to $49 from $55, based on a $3.5 billion “exposure placeholder” for the Camp fire; says every $1b of higher exposure to Camp fire liability would hit Evercore’s PT by a little over $1/share. According to the report, PG&E fell 16.5% on Friday, and stock is trading just above book value as at the end of third quarter of $37.60/share; which means that shares are discounting over $20BN of exposure to fire liabilities, and “it could trade lower, but we think there is value here.”

Separately, Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Lapides expects incremental investor concern for PG&E and Edison as the fires continue to grow. He adds that the California’s wildfire legislation that passed in late August (SB901) doesn’t contain provisions regarding wildfire recovery for potential 2018 fires.

Finally, Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Byrd writes that PCG/EIX shares now reflect $17b/$5b for 2017-2018 fires, including a permanent 25%/20% discount to peers, adding that the “implied damage likely exceeds shareholder liability and underscores need for further reforms.”

The so-called Camp Fire in Northern California and the Woolsey Fire in suburban Los Angeles have destroyed more than 6,700 structures and could cost the state, insurers and homeowners $25 billion or more in damages.

market data/

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

A good paper from David Stockman has he illustrates that the Republicans have now lost their purpose of controlling the purse strings.  He states that the Republicans emphasis at the border is nonsense and hurting the nation.

a must read…

(courtesy David Stockman)

Stockman: The Nation’s Fiscal Doomsday Machine Is Now Unstoppable

Authored by David Stockman via The Economic Policy Journal,

Earlier this year the Donald provoked a bleep-hole moment per the Fox “family channel” or what was otherwise known as the shit-hole moment across the rest of the MSM.

But whatever you called the contretemps spurred by the president’s crude utterance with regard to certain countries domiciled on the African continent, the claim this was evidence that he’s an incorrigible racist was risible. Actually, we already knew that the Donald is a semi-literate bully, who never got (read) the memo on racial comity—to say nothing of political correctness.

Still, there is a not inconsiderable share of Washington’s preening, self-important ruling class that indulges in that very same kind of gutter talk on a regular basis when puffing their chests and marking the objects of their displeasure. That’s why the shaming chorus which sprung up from all corners of the Swamp was enough to give hypocrisy a bad name.

But if we have to have a shaming of politicians, there is a far better reason for it than that unfortunate presidential slur.

To wit, Trump and the GOP deserve everlasting ignominy for literally shit-canning fiscal rectitude.

So doing, they have completely abandoned the GOP’s fundamental reason for being— watch-dogging the US Treasury—in favor of immigrant-bashing, border hysteria and what boils down to crude nativism by any other name.

You do not drain the Swamp and shackle Leviathan, however, by obsessing on and demogoguing about a non-problem that requires muscling up the state’s internal control apparatus and wasting tens of billions more on Mexican Walls, border enforcement armies and deportation dragnets across the length and breadth of the land.

The fact is, five pro-liberty and pro-free market steps would make the whole trumped up border “invasion” bunkum and balderdash go away in a heartbeat. These would include:

  1. Legalizing all drugs and turning the distribution job over to nonviolent operators like, say, Phillip Morris;
  2. Freely handing out guest worker permits at the 48 border control stations and regularly renewing them upon demonstration of gainful employment (W-2 forms);
  3. Denying any and all forms of Federal welfare to non-citizens;
  4. Providing guest workers a ten-year route to citizenship if they hold a steady job, don’t break the criminal law (speeding tickets ok) and pay an admission fee based on a modest percentage of their cumulative W-2 wages; and
  5. Permitting all so-called illegals already here to obtain a guest worker permit at the nearest Federal courthouse and to embark on a 10-year route to citizenship if they hold a job, observe the law, pay the admission fee and also a reasonable fine for their original misdemeanor (crossing the border illegally).

That would end the drug-cartel related violence at the border once and for all and bring America what it desperately needs: Namely, more strong backs to supplement what is a declining pool of native born workers, and, to put it crudely, more young tax-mules to help fund the crushing Welfare State burden implicit in the tsunami of Baby Boom retirements, which will double the benefit rolls from 55 million to 100 million over the next several decades.

And that brings us to the true bleep-hole moment of the Trump presidency: Namely, the fact that he and the Congressional GOP have spent 20-months literally desecrating every principal that the once and former party of fiscal responsibility, balanced budgets and minimal public debt ever stood for.

Yes, the GOP had been straying from its philosophical north star for decades— ever since Ronald Reagan broke the taboo and massively increased the Federal deficit on purpose in the absence of a WW II type emergency. But last winter’s one-two punch of a $2 trillion unpaid for tax cut and the $400 billion two-year spending spree embodied in the Horribus appropriations bill truly broke the glass.

That’s because the offense far transcended just the magnitude of the incremental red-ink attributable to these measures, which we would put at about $5 trillion over the next decade.

The truly unforgiveable sin was to do it in the specific years 2017-2018, which represented the top of a long business cycle expansion, not the recessionary bottom; and, more importantly, the foreground of a new decade which is guaranteed to experience the next debt-swelling recession, soaring interest expense on a massive and growing public debt and the aforementioned demographically driven explosion of social security, medical and other transfer payment spending.

Stated differently, these two years actually represented the last train out of the legislative station ahead of the 2020s’ fiscal cataclysm that was already baked-into-the-cake. And also the last chance ahead of the coming two years of absolute Washington dysfunction and nasty partisan warfare in preparation for the mother of all presidential donnybrooks in 2020.

Accordingly, the entire mission of a Republican president and Congress should have been focused on entitlement reform, sweeping domestic spending cuts and draining the swamp of waste on the Pentagon side of the Potomac. Given today’s baleful fiscal circumstances, the very idea of piling more borrowings on top of the inherited structural deficit of $700 billion for the current year (FY 2019) should have been treated as rank heresy.

So what has actually transpired through it all is that the Donald has dropped the equivalent of a neutron bomb on the GOP. Its edifice is still standing but what used to be inside is dead to the world.

Worse still, those now departed legions of budget hawks have been replaced by an unseemly coalition of militant border patrollers, neocon blood-lusters and military pork barrel servitors of the Warfare State. That is to say, a predatory gang of self-serving swamp-dwellers who couldn’t defend the taxpayers or the nation’s solvency if their lives depended upon it.

So American fiscal governance is now absolutely dead as a doornail. The Great Disrupter came to Washington to monkey-hammer the status quo and spark breakdowns and crises. And on the fiscal front, at least, he has succeeded beyond all expectations.

For reasons which are not hard to grasp and which are laid out below, the nation’s Fiscal Doomsday Machine is now unstoppable; and most especially because the post-midterm Trump White House will have zero legislative power and therefore maximum inclination to barnstorm Red State America in behalf of Trade Wars and Border Wars, which can be prosecuted to a considerable extent under executive authority.

In that context, the untoward effect of the Trade War piece of it is obvious enough. The fact is, China’s $526 billion of imports to the US are the marginal price-setter for roughly $1.7 trillion of goods in the categories they supply, with the balance provided by domestic producers and other exporters.

But when it comes to pricing, China’s got the conn. By both hook and crook it is the low-cost supplier. The Donald’s 25% tariff on its share of the $1.7 trillion, therefore, will create an immediate price umbrella under which the balance of suppliers will be able to lift their offers significantly—and yet still capture market share if they don’t raise all the way to the landed Chinese price plus 25%.

So consider a 15% lift on what might be termed the China goods aisle of the US supermarket, which happens to account for 40% of the entire $4.2 trillion of annual goods consumption in the US from all sources. That would equate to a $250 billion inflationary bow-wave, which, in turn, would force the Fed to stay its normalization campaign, even if it otherwise wanted to chicken out.

By taking the wrong fiscal path in 2017-2018, therefore, the Trumpite/GOP has set up a perfect storm in the bond pits.

To wit, a $1.2 trillion new borrowing requirement for the current fiscal year is fixing to slam hard upon the $600 billion of old debt the Fed will be dumping—along with hundreds of billions more of homeless treasury paper that will be on offer from carry trade speculators getting whacked by rapidly increasing repo rates and by foreign investors getting clipped by the rising dollar and prohibitive currency hedging costs.

Financial repression sure looked easy, of course, when our monetary central planners had their Big Fat Thumbs on the scales during the last 14 years during which they collectively scooped up $21 trillion of government bonds and other paper and salted it away on their cost free balance sheets. But if the economic gods had a son, perhaps he too would look to the heavens and ask they be forgiven on the grounds that “they know not what they do”.

That is, these fools have so bludgeoned and distorted the bond markets that the latter have mutated into a coiled spring of instability. In hundreds of different ways, speculators have been buying on leverage what the central banks have been buying, and now that the latter–led by the Fed—are pivoting to QT, they will be selling what the central banks are selling in what will amount to a global margin call.

That’s the coiled spring that has been implanted in the bond markets by the foolish attempts of Keynesian central bankers to improve upon the natural growth propensity of market capitalism by systematically and deeply falsifying interest rates.

So when that coiled spring of mis-pricing up-chucks the benchmark 10-year Treasury note toward the 4.00% marker, it will be all over except the shouting.

By that we mean the Everything Bubble will splatter in the casino, bringing on a fierce new onslaught of “restructuring” campaigns from the corporate C-suites as they desperately heave workers, inventories and impaired assets overboard—like they did in the fall and winter of 2008- 09—to appease the trading gods and rescue their immolating stock options.

The outcome is otherwise known as “recession’, Bubble Finance style. And once the recessionary red ink starts flowing on top of the already hideous Trumpite/GOP Fiscal Debauch, Washington’s fiscal veins will be opened for the terminal blood-letting.

A recession-driven deficit will quickly breach the $2 trillion per annum level, and from there it’s just the dismal math of soaring debt and interest compounding upon themselves.

What’s worse, even as this forbidding scenario is unfolding in plain sight—10-year yields are up 90 basis points in the past year—-the Donald has taken the GOP off the deep-end of xenophobic militancy. They won’t even notice the fiscal typhoon coming until they are engulfed by it, and then the “low interest” man in the Oval Office will launch an all-out war on the Fed, which will only make the conflagration worse.

Meanwhile, it might well be asked what the great immigration bogeyman was that the conservative party jettisoned its core principals and policy mission to take on.

But its not crime and violence. The latter was legislated in Washington and is nurtured by its ludicrous War on Drugs. It needs be fought on the floor of the H0use and Senate in the form of prohibition repeal legislation, not on the borders where it begets law enforcement violence in response to the inherently violent drug cartels which exist only due to the high prices and economics of prohibition.

And its not that we have too many immigrants-legal, illegal and otherwise. The 44 million current immigrants in the US, in fact, constitute a lower ratio to the population than the 15% which prevailed during the heyday of American growth and prosperity in the second half of the 19th century.

And please don’t say they take Americans jobs. It’s possible that even Nancy Pelosi knows better than that trade-union canard; and, besides, vibrant capitalism can employ any and all workers who volunteer their labor if the state doesn’t throw up obstacles or block the way with unreasonable minimum wage laws.

Finally, don’t play the “they broke the law” card to get here, either. For crying out loud, it’s a misdemeanor, not an anti-social criminal act. If commission of a misdemeanor were a universal basis for deportation, the American Indians would soon have their empty continent back.

So, obviously, there is no immigration threat that requires the US military on the border, the rolling out of trainloads of razor-wire, the wasting of $40 billion or more on the Donald’s idiotic wall or the vast mobilization of border security operations which are now driving the budget of the Homeland Security Department sky-high.

There is another basis for the Donald’s Border Wars and the GOP’s anti-immigration crusade, of course, and its really not hard to figure. It’s not about the 800,000 dreamers, chain migration, the diversity lottery, MS-13 gangs, the Mexican Wall and now the caravans of destitute and desperate “invaders” allegedly threatening our borders.

Underneath all these alleged immigration issues, in fact, is a bare-knuckled political war between the partisan apparatus and vote getting machines of the two political parties.

The sundry Dem caucuses want more immigrants, and the browner the better, because they see it as their only route to electoral dominance. But that’s actually a good sign not a threat because it underscores that the modern Dem party has nothing to offer except a friendly demeanor and the hackneyed rhetoric of identify politics.

By contrast, the hard core GOP immigrant-thumpers are desperately attempting to hang-on to Red State rule in the face of the forbidding demographic math of the dwindling white and ruralish population—and the fact that not many Norwegians want to come to America, anyway.

But they are dead-wrong about this kind of Alamo politics. The 50-years of GOP dominance from William McKinley through Teddy Roosevelt, Taft, Harding, Coolidge and Herbert Hoover, too, was built on the support of immigrants who voted for the full lunch pail economics of the old GOP.

Donald Trump wouldn’t have been nominated for dog-catcher in that Republican party; and he would have found the congressional nativists, immigrant-bashers and Klansman to support his agenda mainly on the back benches of the Democrat side of the aisle.

Alas, the Donald’s Border Wars agenda and related tweet-storms, unhinged stadium rhetoric and stunts like sending 15,000 regular army forces to the Mexican border would be bad enough in terms of supplanting and displacing the GOP’s traditional fiscal agenda.

But now the whole misbegotten agenda has been completely Foxified with Sean Hannity, Laura Ingram and even Tucker Carlson competing to propagate the most shrill daily rendition of the Trumpian rage against a Fake Immigration Threat.

So the bottom line is this: When it comes to the nation’s fiscal governance there is absolutely no one home in Washington. The upcoming deluge of red ink will meet with no resistance at all.

END

Trump now threatens California that it will cut off wildfire funding unless he ends their gross mismanagement of forests.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Threatens To Cut Wildfire Funding Unless Cali

Ends “Gross Mismanagement Of Forests”

As the wildfires ravaging Northern and Southern California destroy billions of dollars worth of real estate, President Trump reminded the world in a Saturday morning tweet that global warming – which many (on the left in particular) have blamed for the fires – isn’t the responsible for the fires. Rather, California’s inept forest-management strategies have left the state vulnerable as drought-like conditions have transformed the state’s densely packed forests into a bed of kindling, just waiting to be set off by a stray cigarette butt.

In a tweet that seems almost tailor-made to trigger the left, President Trump threatened to revoke the “billions that are given each year” to the state if California doesn’t address the “gross mismanagement” of its forests and take more steps to mitigate the fires.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!

As University of Washington Climate Scientist Cliff Mass pointed out in an analysis of the factors contributing to California’s wildfires, climate change isn’t driving climate change; rather, poor land management policies and population growth in once-rural areas have been by far the biggest contributors. According to one recent study cited by Mass, the risk of fire increased in once-rural areas as populations increased, placing buildings, plants, vehicles and other ignition sources in fire-prone areas that were once sparsely populated.

Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke has criticized “environmental terrorists groups that have not allowed public access, that refuse to allow harvest of timber.” Environmentalists use litigation to keep federal agencies from thinning forests, clearing debris or allowing logging, Zinke said. This, in turn, creates more kindling that can help wildfires accelerate more quickly. Zinke also called out “extreme environmentalists” in an interview with KCRA that aired Sunday. The day before that, Zinke lambasted “environmental terrorists groups that have not allowed public access, that refuse to allow harvest of timber,” told Brietbart back in July.

“I’ve heard the climate change argument back and forth,” Zinke told the Sacramento-based KCRA. “This has nothing to do with climate change. This has to do with active forest management.”

But although Trump may have good reason to try and hold the state of California accountable for its actions, his political opponents will inevitably interpret this as another attempt by the Trump administration to cruelly withdraw resources from people who badly need them, even if the evidence supporting his central claim, that the forest management policies advocated by the environmental lobby, is hardly controversial.

end

The  cost so far has been set at 25 billion dollars for damages in the wildfires in California.

(courtesy zerohedge)

California Wildfires Set For $25 Billion In Damages As Death Toll Hits 31; Suspected Looters Arrested

Update: PG&E and Edison stock prices are crashing as analysts warn that the potential wildfire costs could soar…

*  *  *

Some 149,000 Californians are effectively homeless after fleeing from the Camp, Woolsey and Hill fires, which have afflicted Butte County, as well as Ventura and LA counties and destroyed more than 6,700 homes and buildings, with thousands more expected to burn. And as the death toll hits 31, putting this round of wildfires on track to become the deadliest in the state’s history as more than 200 people remain missing, a picture of the total damages that have been wrought by the fires is beginning to emerge. According to Bloomberg, the state, insurers and homeowners could be on the hook for a combined $19 billion in damages.

Though that is a staggering sum, at least one analyst believes it’s a conservative estimate. To put it in context, Hurricane Harvey caused more than $100 billion in total economic devastation when it slammed Houston last year. Though the total sum could be on par with Hurricane Michael, which slammed the Florida panhandle and parts of the southeastern US last month.

“The California fires are as bad as folks think they are,” said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler at Enki Research. He pegged the possible damages of about $25 billion once the fires have been put out and the total damage can be assessed. Insurance for fire-related damages is already becoming an issue.

Some 8,000 local, state and federal firefighters have arrived to battle the flames as hot, dry “devil winds” are set to persist for much of this week. Already, the Camp Fire has destroyed more structures than any other California wildfire since data collection began. Among the losses include dozens of celebrity-owned homes in Malibu, where the Woolsey and smaller Hill fires are wreaking havoc. Up north, the entire town of Paradise, Calif. has been leveled by the flames.

The blazes have spread to cover a combined 200,000 acres. Gov. Jerry Brown has asked President Trump to issue a “major disaster declaration” that would give California access to federal aid – though there’s a chance that Trump might be reluctantto release the money.

“We’re putting everything we’ve got into the fight against these fires, and this request ensures communities on the front lines get additional federal aid,” Brown said in a statement.

In a harrowing series of images, USA Today showed before-and-after images of homes and businesses in Paradise.

One

One

Before

Two

The NWS warned over the weekend that there appears to be no end in sight for the blazes, as the forecast is largely free of seasonal rain. Extinguishing the Woolsey fire could take another five days, and it could take the rest of November to extinguish the Camp Fire, according to CalFire.

Looters

Butte County police have arrested several men suspected of looting during the Camp Fire. The men were reportedly trying to impersonate Forest Service personnel to gain access to the area.

There have been 53 reports of suspected looting in the fire zone according to authorities.

end
John Rubino looks at the cost of replacing just one town, Paradise which was completely wiped out by the wild fires
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Yet Another Trillion-Dollar Unfunded Liability, California Wildfires Edition

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

Yesterday an entire California town burned down. Paridise, CA has (had) 27,000 residents and over 1,000 buildings, and now it’s pretty much gone. A fire started nearby on a windy day and within hours everything was ash and cinders.

That fire and several others are still expanding across the state, threatening tens of thousands of homes. The sets of the TV show WestWorld are gone. Malibu has been evacuated. And dry, windy conditions persist, so the story is nowhere near over.

If this sounds familiar, it’s because massive, sometimes uncontrollable California wildfires are now an annual occurrence, due in part to gradual warming and persistent drought which combine to suck the moisture out of vegetation and turn the landscape into a tinderbox. Here’s a chart showing the recent take-off in the number of fires reported in the state (2013 was most recent year I could find, but the trend is clear – and since then the number of fires has apparently soared).

The reason this rates coverage in a financial blog is population. We’ve been moving millions of people into a place that has always had and always will have wildfires. California’s population is now about four times what it was in 1950, and the influx continues.

Fire is a crucial part of that and many other ecosystems, clearing out dead plants to make room for living. But add 40 million humans along with their buildings and vehicles, and a healthy, resilient semi-desert becomes a hellscape.

A very expensive hellscape. What does it cost to rebuild a town of 27,000 people from scratch? A back-of-the-envelope calculation (1,000 buildings at $100,000 a pop, 15,000 cars at $25,000 per, $10,000 per person for roads, sewers, landscaping, etc) yields several hundred million dollars. For one little town.

Is California budgeting for this? Are the insurance companies? Is Washington? All probably say they are, but only the insurance companies actually are – and even they are probably under-reserved for the past few years’ natural disasters.

This is a massive public planning failure, and yet another unfunded liability – that is, a future cost incurred but not saved for – to go alongside public pensions, government debt and multiplying environmental time bombs.

The result: A future of unpleasant surprises, in which governments are constantly saying “Oops, there’s this huge new expense that no one could have foreseen, and we’re all going to have to tighten our belts to cover it, sorry about the bad roads and closed libraries” – or – “Oops, there’s a huge unforeseen expense and we’re going to have to create a trillion new dollars to cover it, sorry about the inflation.”

But isn’t this mostly a private sector issue, between homeowner and insurance company, you ask? In many cases that’s true. But insurance companies have to make a profit, which means homeowner policy premiums have to be high enough to cover expected losses. As the latter rise, so necessarily do the former. Which means the part of our cost of living that’s devoted to insurance will soar as a direct result of California’s asleep-at-the-switch population management policy.

Are California wildfires as big an unfunded liability as the one resulting from the Right Coast’s soaring Hurricane Alley population? Probably not, because fires, even big ones, are smaller than tropical storms. Still, it could easily exceed a trillion dollars (let’s see what today’s fires end up costing) which – hitting a state that’s already overburdened with unfunded pensions and crumbling infrastructure – will probably end up being added to the federal government’s balance sheet via some kind of bail-out.

All of which makes a currency reset that much more likely in the not too distant future. Paying off this mountain of debts, promises and “guaranteed surprises” with current dollars is mathematically impossible. But after a 70% devaluation the numbers might work.

end

 

SWAMP STORIES

Caught in the act:  Mystery boxes tossed into trucks after missing a court deadline.  Flor. Rep Gaetz forcibly removed while filming.  This is totally unbelievable.  It looks to me like Broward County must redo the election from the beginning as this fraud intensifies.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Broward Mystery Boxes Tossed Into Trucks After

Missed Deadline; Gaetz Forcibly Removed

While Filming

After a Florida Judge ordered Broward County Supervisor of Elections Brenda Snipes to allow for the immediate inspection of tens of thousands of ballots suddenly found after Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson lost to Republican Gov. Rick Scott, Snipes failed to abide by a 7 PM deadline set at the emergency hearing. Instead, workers were filmed by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) shuffling boxes into a truck, before he was forcibly removed by a police officer. 

Matt Gaetz

@mattgaetz

BREAKING: I took this video as the riot police removed me from where trucks were secretly loading stuff in/out of Broward Supervisors office. All this while they are violating constitutional rights & a court order! #BrowardCounty

The scene was reminiscent of election night, when Broward County election officials were seen shuffling mystery boxes into a rented truck.

Embedded video

Tim Canova

@Tim_Canova

Caught On Video: Concerned citizen sees ballots being transported in private vehicles & transferred to rented truck on Election night. This violates all chain of custody requirements for paper ballots. Were the ballots destroyed & replaced by set of fake ballots? Investigate now!

Gaetz vowed earlier to hold Snipes in contempt for missing the 7PM deadline.

The court was asked to intervene in a tight race for US Senate between Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican Gov. Rick Scott, after tens of thousands of ballots mysteriously appeared in Broward County, and another 15,000 in Palm Beach.

Lawyers for Snipes have argued that such a quick response would interfere with the count, while Rep. Bill Nelson has accused Republicans of trying to deny him a seat which he believes he will keep once all the votes are counted.

Rep. Bill Nelson (D-FL)Republicans have conversely accused Democrats of trying to steal the election.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

You mean they are just now finding votes in Florida and Georgia – but the Election was on Tuesday? Let’s blame the Russians and demand an immediate apology from President Putin!

Who is Brenda Snipes?

Snipes has a sordid history in her 15-years on the job. In May 2018 a judge ruled that she violated federal and state laws by destroying ballots in a 2016 Congressional race in Tim Canova’s bid to unseat Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the Democratic primary race.

In August, 2018 a Judge ordered Snipes to stop opening mail-in ballots in secret.

In 2016, Snipes’ office “accidentally” posted the results of an election 30 minutes before polls closed at 7 p.m., which was blamed on a private contractor.

Brenda SnipesSnipes is being backed by Bernie Sanders – who was admonished by Tim Canova for supporting the woman who destroyed ballots in his bid to unseat Wasserman Schultz.

Rep. Gaetz, meanwhile, is being called a racist for trying to figure out what exactly is going on in Broward County.

Matt Gaetz

@mattgaetz

Now everyone who doesn’t want voter fraud is a racist. Guys, this race-baiting strategy failed in the elections. Give it up already.

Fight For 15

@fightfor15

Dear @mattgaetz, you are a joke. And your racism is showing. https://twitter.com/kennethrpreston/status/1060954823040909312 

end

Gov. Scott files lawsuits asking police to seize ballots in Broward and Palm Beach counties.  This is very interesting

(courtesy zerohedge)

Scott Files Lawsuits Asking Police To Seize Ballots In

Broward, Palm Beach Counties

After a judge ruled on Friday that Broward County election officials must allow immediate viewing and copying of records  relating to the counting of votes under their jurisdiction, Florida Gov. Rick Scott has filed three more lawsuits against Broward and Palm Beach County election officials demanding that law enforcement seize and safeguard voting machines and ballots “when they are not in use,” CNNreported.

Scott

In one of the complaint, Scott accused Broward County Elections Supervisor Brenda Snipes of counting ballots after the Saturday noon deadline. The campaign is filing two other lawsuits against Snipes and Palm Beach County Elections Supervisor Susan Buchner asking that the election equipment be seized when not being used for recounts, which were ordered by Florida’s secretary of state on Saturday. Recounts were ordered in Scott’s senate race against Nelson and Democrat Andrew Gillum’s narrow loss to Republican Ron DeSantis, as well as in the race for Florida Agriculture Commissioner. In the lawsuits, Scott asked that both supervisors be required to preserve all ballots and records connected with the 2018 election. Suspicious voting patterns have been detected in Broward County as more than 20,000 ballots left the lines for governor blank while voting in down ballot races.

Nelson released a statement Sunday describing Scott’s latest batch of lawsuits as an effort “to stop every legal vote from being counted.”

“He’s doing this for the same reason he’s been making false and panicked claims about voter fraud — he’s worried that when all the votes are counted he’ll lose this election,” Nelson said. “We will not allow him to undermine the democratic process and will use every legal tool available to protect the rights of Florida voters.”

Marc Elias, a Democratic lawyer brought in by Nelson and Gov. Andrew Gillum to ensure that “every Democratic vote is counted”, put it more bluntly.

“This is not a third world dictatorship. We don’t let people seize ballots when they think they’re losing.”

Scott’s lawsuit comes after President Trump threatened to send in federal investigators to oversee the recount amid reports that shipments of “mystery” ballots surfaced in the heavily Democratic counties days after the election. On Saturday, we pointed out that, according to a transcript from one of the ballot review sessions, Democratic lawyers pushed to keep a ballot allegedly cast by a “non-citizen.”

Scott has repeatedly insisted that, once every ballot is counted, he would emerge victorious.

In addition to this round of lawsuits, plus the lawsuits filed by Scott on Thursday that a judge decided in his favor, Nelson filed a lawsuit on Friday against the Florida GOP secretary of state as litigation continues to pile up.

We now await a legal response from the Democrats, who will almost certainly file an injunction to stop law enforcement from seizing the ballots.

end
This is becoming a big story!!  Provisional ballot boxes discovered inside an AVIS rental car at Ft Lauderdale Airport
What a farce.  It sure looks like they are going to have another election for Broward county and Palm Beach as the authorities can never come up with the truth as to what happened.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Provisional Ballot Boxes Discovered Inside AVIS Rental

Car At Ft. Lauderdale Airport

Provisional ballot boxes from the Broward County Supervisor of Elections Office were reportedly discovered in the back of an AVIS rental car at Fort Lauderdale Airport on Sunday night, as first reported by investigative journalist Laura Loomer.

Richard DeNapoli@RichardDeNapoli

At the Fort Lauderdale airport where box labeled “provisional ballot box” discovered at Avis rental agency @realRyanNicol @Fla_Pol

845 people are talking about this

Attorney and Broward GOP State Committeeman Richard DeNapoli says he received a call from an AVIS employee informing him of the found ballot boxes after sheriff’s deputies were initially unwilling to investigate. Approximately 20 minutes after receiving the tip, however, a heavy police presence arrived and blocked off traffic to the airport, and a bomb threat was announced.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Richard DeNapoli@RichardDeNapoli

Pics of the box discovered at Avis rent a car at Fort Lauderdale airport @LauraLoomer @FoxNews

 

 

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
View image on Twitter

Richard DeNapoli@RichardDeNapoli

More pics of the ballot boxes found at Fort Lauderdale airport – yes I was the one the Avis employee … I alerted FDLE who got Broward Sheriff involved @FoxNews @Fla_Pol @PeterSchorschFL

Pictures taken at the scene show two boxes. One box is red, and the other is grey. The grey box is labeled “PROVISIONAL BALLOT BOX” with a sign that says “Broward County Supervisor of Elections“, a purple tag that says “ERT region 13”, and a backwards yellow tag with a seven digit numerical and five letter code. –Laura Loomer

Embedded video

Richard DeNapoli@RichardDeNapoli

Video from the discovery of the provisional ballot box at the @realRyanNicol

DeNapoli says that the car was rented to a man by the name of Noah Holliman.

Richard DeNapoli@RichardDeNapoli

The Avis employee advised as to “Noah Holliman” being the renter of the vehicle and that he lived locally

DeNapoli recaps what happened here:

Embedded video

Richard DeNapoli@RichardDeNapoli

Video from the discovery of the provisional ballot box at the @FoxNews @mattgaetz @browardpolitics @Fla_Pol

“Bomb” threat

Sunday evening, the Broward County Sheriff’s Office tweeted “Our deputies and bomb squad are responding to a report of a suspicious package outside @FLLFlyer Terminal 4,” only later to tweet an “all-clear.”

Broward Sheriff

@browardsheriff

Our deputies have deemed the package safe, and issued an all-clear.

Broward Sheriff

@browardsheriff

Our deputies and bomb squad are responding to a report of a suspicious package outside @FLLFlyer Terminal 4. https://twitter.com/fllflyer/status/1061786515402080256 

Loomer says that when she attempted to make her way to the airport, she was blocked by an officer. She then told the public that “Broward County Sheriff’s Officers were on the scene filling out a police report and documenting the ballots.”

Florida Politico Lauren Cooley also rushed to the scene, saying (via Laura Loomer):

“The AVIS employee didn’t know what to do. No one wanted to touch the boxes or take responsibility for them. Finally, sheriffs deputies agreed to take the provisional ballot boxes into their custody. It’s an odd situation when supervisor of elections (SOE) employees are so careless with important election materials, but its becoming a trend in Broward County.”

Meanwhile, DeNapoli added the following in an emailed statement to Loomer:

“The way it went down: rental agency guy contacted me because he saw my name on Florida GOP website as contact for Broward County. He said he spoke with some Sheriffs Deputy Personnel at the airport but they seemed disinterested in getting involved. I contacted some friends in law enforcement who got the FDLE involved. After I arrived at the airport, FDLE contacted Broward Sheriff Jeremey Hansen who came to the Avis at the Fort Lauderdale airport. They interviewed me and the AVIS employee and took the boxes into evidence.

Loomer notes that “while the “media” was in Terminal 4 reporting on a non-existent bomb threat that was literally tweeted from the official Twitter account of the Broward Sheriffs Office. Meanwhile, there was never a bomb.”

The FBI needs to kick in the door, interview all board of election employees, shutter the Broward County elections offices, seize all the ballots and put a stop to the Democrats disrupting the elections,” said GOP operative Ali Alexander with StopTheSteal – a campaign established to collect intelligence  and document alleged election malfeasance amid the Florida ballot controversies.

“This is a bigger story than we could have ever imagined and Floridians and the entire country demand answers.”

end

Already the Democrats are ready to let subpoenas fly early next year when they get control of the house. Here is a list of people that they intend to go after

(courtesy zerohedge)

All The Democrats’ Investigations: House Ready To

“Let The Subpoenas Fly” Early Next Year

As Nancy Pelosi made abundantly clear before her party wrested control of the House on Tuesday, the Democrats will waste little time before they “let the subpoenas fly” after taking control of the House in January. So many potential investigation threads have been reported in the media, that it can be difficult to keep track. We already know that Democrats are planning to investigate Trump’s ties to his business and whether he profited off foreign dignitaries. Trump’s tax returns are expected to be targeted (Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee could invoke an arcane Congressional rule to force the IRS to hand over Trump’s returns), and – of course – his mysterious ties with Russia. And who could forget the FBI’s handling of the expanded Kavanaugh background check, where Democrats suspect that the White House and/or Senate Republicans interceded to exclude certain key “witnesses” (none of whom are believed to have actually witnessed Kavanaugh sexually assault women). 

Schiff

Well, to this list we can add a couple more possibilities. Because in an interview with Axios’ new HBO Sunday politics show, incoming House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff revealed that Dems are planning to extensively investiagate whether Trump’s blood feud with the US media drove him to commit potentially illegal acts. For starters, they’re planning to investigate Trump’s crackdown on the press following his White House briefing room battle with CNN’s Jim Acosta (which resulted in Acosta having his credentials revoked), his efforts to browbeat the Postmaster General into raising shipping rates on Amazon packages (in an effort to get back at the Washington Post), and any role he might have played in the DOJ’s decision to try and stop the merger of Time Warner and AT&T (Time Warner owns CNN).

Here’s Axios:

House Democrats plan to investigate whether President Trump abused White House power by targeting – and trying to punish with “instruments of state power” – The Washington Post and CNN, incoming House intelligence committee chairman Adam Schiff said in an interview for “Axios on HBO.”

Continuing with the press freedom theme, Schiff suggested that Trump’s blood feud with Amazon is grounded in his hatred of the Washington Post, and that Trump has sought to economically punish Amazon as payback for its founder and CEO, Jeff Bezos’s ownership of the Post.

“This appears to be an effort by the president to use the instruments of state power to punish Jeff Bezos and The Washington Post,” Schiff said. Jeff Bezos is founder, chairman and CEO of Amazon, and owns the Washington Post.

And then there’s CNN:

2) Schiff said Congress also need to examine whether Trump attempted to block AT&T’s merger with Time Warner as payback to CNN.

“We don’t know, for example, whether the effort to hold up the merger of the parent of CNN was a concern over antitrust, or whether this was an effort merely to punish CNN,” Schiff said.

While wildfires burn through his home state, Schiff has apparently been busy this weekend rushing from one interview to the next. In a Sunday appearance on “Meet the Press,” Schiff elaborated on the Democrats’ plans for “holding Trump accountable” after offering a token criticism about Trump’s “callous” tweet about the California wildfires…

“Trump…is only the president, I think in his view, of those who voted for him. The rest, he could care less.”

…Schiff immediately moved on to discussing several of the many threads that the House Intel Committee will be pursuing in its quest to hold Trump accountable for whatever the scandal du jour is…This week, it’s possible conflicts involving Trump’s acting attorney general, Matthew Whitaker.

Whitaker isn’t legally required to recuse himself from the Russia probe (though there might be broader constitutional issues surrounding his appointment that Schiff, for whatever reason, didn’t want to get into), but the acting attorney general would do well to remember that the Democrats are planning to stick to him like white on rice…and that any slip-up – however minor – will immediately face searing public scrutiny.

“If he doesn’t recuse himself if he has any involvement whatsoever in this Russia probe…we are going to find out whether he made commitments to the president about the probe, whether he is serving as a back channel to the president or his lawyers about the probe, whether he’s doing anything to interfere with the probe…Mr. Whitaker needs to understand that he will be called to answer and that any role that he plays will be exposed to the public.”

Moving away from the Democratic investigations for a second, Chuck Todd pointed out that the popularity of the Mueller probe has waned over the last year (as we’ve pointed out, opinion polling shows that even Democrats no longer care about Russia), and asked Schiff for his take on what’s driving this trend. Schiff’s explanation? Because Mueller has been in a blackout period for the last two months (though public confidence in Mueller’s probe had been in decline long before the pre-election blackout period began).

“Around the time that he produces indictments and more he produces convictions…support for his probe goes up. When he issues his report or if there are further indictments, you will see public confidence in his work again rise.”

All of this contributes to the growing body of evidence that President Trump had a point when he complained about “election fatigue” earlier this week. With that in mind, Todd asked, how are the Democrats planning to prioritize their investigations? Schiff assured him that the Democrats’ policy objectives won’t be buried by a flurry of investigations.

But while this sounds like a sensible strategy on its face, there are reasons to doubt Schiff’s intentions. Because Democrats would like the public to believe that it’s to their benefit to leave no stone unturned while investigating Trump and his administration. But in one of his last comments before the end of the interview, Schiff might have inadvertently exposed his party’s ulterior motive. Investigations, Schiff said, are “sexy.” While health-care policy…not so much.

“Let’s face it: the investigations are sexy, they’re interesting…the legislative process is less so, but nonetheless important to the American people. We are going to need to ruthlessly prioritize on the Intel Committee…and we are doing that now.”

The interview with Schiff begins at the 35-minute mark:

While Schiff, due to his leadership of the House Intel Committee, will likely become Trump’s chief anagonist after the new year, he wasn’t the only Democrat who was making the rounds on the Sunday shows to discuss the many avenues that Democrats are planning to investigate after they take power.

Jerry Nadler said during an appearance on “This Week” that the Judiciary Committee, which he will lead, intends to pursue suspicions that the White House intervened to tamper with the Kavanaugh probe.

Embedded video

This Week

@ThisWeekABC

Rep. Jerry Nadler on a potential investigation of Kavanaugh: “It’s not a question of investigating Justice Kavanaugh. We do have a responsibility, I believe, to investigate the process by which the FBI was stifled in its investigation by the White House” https://abcn.ws/2QuF8js

Meanwhile, Rep. Elijah Cummings said the House Oversight Committee plans to investigate Republicans’ plans to suppress votes…

Embedded video

This Week

@ThisWeekABC

Rep. Elijah Cummings tells @GStephanopoulos “voter suppression” is one of the oversight priorities for House Democrats: “We cannot have a country where it becomes normal to do everything in folks power to stop people from voting” https://abcn.ws/2JIMBvS #ThisWeek

…as well as possible violations of the emoluments clause (which prohibits taking gifts from foreign leaders).

Embedded video

This Week

@ThisWeekABC

Rep. Elijah Cummings says Democrats want to look at “possible violations” of the emoluments clause while investigating Trump: “We’ve got to figure out when is he acting on behalf of the American people … or is he acting on his own behalf?” https://abcn.ws/2JIMBvS #ThisWeek

While Democrats pursue their investigation into voter suppression, we wonder…will that include efforts to suppress votes cast by non-citizens?

end

What a joke:  Top Dems melt over the Whitaker Mueller “unconstitutional” oversight but neglect  Rosenstein on the same vein.  Also on the same vein is the appointment of Mueller himself as he is inferior.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Top Dems Melt Down Over Whitaker-Mueller “Unconstitutional” Oversight

Top Democrats encouraged the Justice Department’s top ethics official to disclose whether he thinks newly appointed acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker should recuse himself from overseeing the Russia investigation.

In a Sunday letter signed by Democratic lawmakers Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Jerry Nadler, Dianne Feinstein, Adam Schiff, Mark Warner and Elijah Cummings, Whitaker should be disqualified from taking control of the special counsel investigation over comments he made in June and July, 2017.

“Mr. Whitaker has a history of hostile statements toward Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation, including televised statements suggesting the investigation be defunded or subjected to strict limitations in scope,” reads the letter, pointing first to a June 9, 2017 statement by Whitaker during an appearance on a radio show in which he said “There is no criminal obstruction of justice charge to be had here. The evidence is weak. No reasonable prosecutor would bring a case.”

Then, in a July 26, 2017 statement, Whitaker said that he “could see a scenario where Jeff Sessions is replaced with a recess appointment and that attorney general doesn’t fire Bob Mueller but he just reduces his budget so low that his investigations grinds almost to a halt.”

The letter goes on to note that Whitaker has referred to the special counsel investigation as “a mere witch hunt,” as well as an opinion article he wrote entitled “Mueller’s Investigation of Trump Is Going Too Far.”

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

ABC News

@ABC

NEW: Top congressional Democrats request to know if Justice Dept. ethics officers have advised acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker to recuse himself from overseeing special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. https://abcn.ws/2DzJfbe 

Unconstitutional?

Neal Katyal, former acting solicitor general of the United States under President Obama and architect of the special counsel rules, which he drafted 20 years ago under President Clinton, says in a Monday Washington Post article that Whitaker’s appointment is unconstitutional.

Even if Whitaker’s appointment ever survived a court challenge on constitutional grounds for most of his day-to-day duties at the Justice Department, the fact that he’ll now be performing the sensitive work of supervising Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation raises other deep problems. Putting Whitaker in charge of the inquiry is sharply at odds with the special counsel regulations governing Mueller’s work and with the Justice Department’s rules about who may oversee an investigation.

But no one — and I mean no one — ever thought the regulations we wrote would permit the president to install some staff member of his choice from the Justice Department to serve as acting attorney general and thereby oversee the special counsel. Such a proposal would have been laughed off Capitol Hill within a nanosecond as fundamentally at odds with the most cardinal principle that no one is above the law. –WaPo

Katyal goes on to argue that the President should not be able to “name his own temporary attorney general to supervise an investigation in which he and his family have a direct, concrete interest,” and that “The Constitution itself underscores this — even assuming Trump’s defenders are right that under the Appointments Clause, an acting attorney general doesn’t always need to be Senate-confirmed.”

Moreover, Kaytal points out another problem specific to the Mueller investigation. “In an emergency situation where an acting head is named, the president is, ultimately, the responsible official who supervises temporary, unconfirmed stand-ins. The idea is that there would at least be someone accountable to the public above the acting officer in those situations — and as Harry Truman put it, the buck always stops with the president.”

Here, though, the idea that the president could be trusted to supervise Whitaker as he oversees Mueller’s work is absurd. The potential for self-dealing, not selfless sacrifice, is rampant. Trump could secretly order Whitaker to do his bidding and terminate an investigation of his or his family’s wrongdoing, and Whitaker would take the blame for it. Trump could shield his actions from public scrutiny, and Whitaker, who depends entirely on the president’s support for his job and later advancement, would have no standing to complain. This is fundamentally at odds with the core principle of American law, going back to the early 1600s, that no one can be a judge in their own case. –WaPo

Whitaker, Kaytal argues, is compromised, while Justice Department ethics rules “forbid someone from participating in a criminal investigation if they have “a personal or political relationship” with “any person … which he knows has a specific and substantial interest that would be directly affected by the outcome of the investigation.”

This “fits this case to a T,” since Whitaker campaigned for his job both publicly and privately – while casting doubt over the legitimacy of the Mueller investigation.

Whitaker also ran a political campaign for Trump confidant Sam Clovis – who Mueller subpoenaed as part of his Russia inquiry.

And it’s here where the temporary nature of Whitaker’s appointment boomerangs. Like Supreme Court decisions that are tickets “good for one day only,” when an appointment is made for only one reason, it looks more suspect. That suspicion is exacerbated further because Whitaker has not been confirmed by the Senate. No independent body has signed off on his ethics or his integrity — and bypassing the Senate makes his appointment appear to be an attempt to put a Trump lackey in charge of the investigation. –WaPo

Given that Democrats are likely to suggest that the Mueller investigation has been hobbled by Whitaker, will he recuse?

end

 

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

Trump’s top trade adviser [Navarro] just warned Goldman Sachs and Wall Street not to leave their ‘stench’ on the US-China trade war talks – “As part of a Chinese government influence operation, globalist billionaires are putting the full court press on the White House in advance of the G20 in Argentina. The mission of these unregistered foreign agents – that’s what they are, unregistered agents – is to pressure this president into some kind of a deal.”… Wall Street, get out of those negotiations. Go to Dayton, Ohio – bring your Goldman Sachs money to Dayton, Ohio – go to Dayton, Ohio, and invest in America,”…https://www.businessinsider.in/Trumps-top-trade-adviser-just-warned-Goldman-Sachs-and-Wall-Street-not-to-leave-their-stench-on-the-US-China-trade-war-talks/articleshow/66561029.cms
The same ‘experts’ that said stocks would collapse 30% if Trump were elected now aver that the stock market loves divided government – even though stocks surged on DJT’s election and GOP control of Congress!  Why would people say something that is so obviously bogus?
NYT: Despite substantial evidence to the contrary, there is a deep belief on Wall Street that gridlock has been good for the stock market. The data bears this out only when a Democrat has been president … When a Republican has been president during a stretch of gridlock, the market has lagged
@thehill: House Dems plan to investigate Trump targeting of CNN, Washington Post: report http://hill.cm/Oy9L0PG
Democrats to probe Trump actions on AT&T, Amazon.com: Axios
Democrats Escalate Push for Matt Whitaker’s Recusal from Mueller Probehttps://dailycaller.com/2018/11/11/democrats-doj-matthew-whitaker/
Trump has vowed to retaliate in kind if Dems choose the malicious investigation path.
Today – The S&P 500 Index’s Inside Day on Thursday was resolved to the downside.  This suggests that the rally after Election Day was a blow-off of the rebound rally from the frightening tumble in October.  We warned last week that the pre-election rally could top after the vote, ala the stock market in 1980.
From the King Report on Election Day: Just like in 1980, US stocks declined sharply during the second half of October.  However, stocks rallied robustly in the days before the election in 1980.  Sound familiar?  When Reagan won in 1980, stocks peaked on November 5, 1980, the day after the election.  If the GOP retains the House, stocks could peak soon thereafter.
James Comey discussed sensitive FBI business on his private email – and at least seven of those messages were deemed so sensitive by the Justice Department that they declined to release them…
The emails show that Comey used personal email throughout his investigation into Clinton and even talked about it… [No wonder Comey (and Brennan and Clapper and Holder etc. keep bashing DJT]
PolySci Prof @darelmass: Prior to Tuesday’s election, Ds held 55 of the richest 100 US House districts (median household income, 2017) and Rs held 45. After the election, Ds will hold 73 and Rs will hold 20, with 7 seats yet to be decided.
Some GOP House seats were lost due to Blue State Dems redrawing of districts to dilute GOP voters.  Numerous pundits and analysts warned months before the Midterms that this would occur.
Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” – Josef Stalin
The Florida Secretary of State has ordered a recount in the Senate and Governor races.  After all the shenanigans, Republican Rick Scott leads Democrat Bill Nelson by 12,562 votes for the Senate seat.  Reportedly all counties have submitted their votes, except Broward, of course.
@realDonaldTrump: Trying to STEAL two big elections in Florida! We are watching closely!
What occurred in Florida, Arizona, possibly Montana and several House races was preventable.  But, the Republican Establishment is squeamish and craven.  They’d rather turtle than fight.  The only reasons that Trump took over the GOP are: 1) Whether he believes them or not, he is on the majority side on the major issues; and 2) He has the temerity, bombastic and pugnaciousness that Dems possess but Repubs lack.
Numerous pundits in the months before the Midterms warned that the above mentioned locales should be monitored closely for voter irregularities.  GOP leaders eschewed common sense and the warnings,
Democrats in Broward and Palm Beach Counties, Florida (possibly AZ, GA and Montana, too) might have triggered the tipping point for Voter IDs and tougher voter election fraud laws/enforcement.
Late Friday afternoon, WISH’s @Stewartmoore: Judge finds Broward County violated constitution by not following open records laws,orders election officials to comply by 7pm. Ruling does not address allegations of fraud. This ruling will reveal how many ballots cast and how many still need to be counted
@realDonaldTrump: You mean they are just now finding votes in Florida and Georgia – but the Election was on Tuesday? Let’s blame the Russians and demand an immediate apology from President Putin!
As soon as Democrats sent their best Election stealing lawyer, Marc Elias, to Broward County they miraculously started finding Democrat votes. Don’t worry, Florida – I am sending much better lawyers to expose the FRAUD! [Elias is from Perkins Coie, the firm associated with Fusion GPS & ‘the dossier’]
     Rick Scott was up by 50,000+ votes on Election Day, now they “found” many votes and he is only up 15,000 votes. “The Broward Effect.” How come they never find Republican votes?
     Just out — in Arizona, SIGNATURES DON’T MATCH. Electoral corruption…
Rep. Matt Gaetz [FL] @RepMattGaetz: It’s absurd that since election night 80,000 ballots have been spoken into existence in the two most blue counties. This malfeasance erodes the faith that undergirds our democratic system & after 18 years Florida should have been better equipped to avoid this
Broward County Police Remove Rep. Matt Gaetz from Filming Officials Secretly Loading Boxes In/Out of Office     https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/huge-broward-county-police-remove-rep-matt-gaetz-from-filming-officials-secretly-loading-boxes-in-out-of-office-video/
[Governor] Rick Scott @ScottforFlorida: Every day since the election, Broward County have been coming up with more and more ballots out of nowhere.  We all know what is going on. I will not sit idly by while unethical liberals try to steal this election from the people of Florida.
Senator @marcorubio: @browardsheriff responded this morning to Tamarac Lakes Community Center after a citizen reported finding Broward Election equipment & 2 locked ballot boxes unattended. Sheriff office secured the scene & equipment. BSO case #07-1811-000971
Brenda Snipes’ office mixed bad provisional ballots with good ones
Florida Lt. Governor @JeffKottkamp: Affidavit filed by Broward Election’s employee in support of Caldwell lawsuit provides eye witness account of Elections staff filling in blank ballots. When this was reported the employee was fired and told not to come back.
Gillum, Nelson Lawyers Fight to Include Non-Citizen’s Vote in Florida
Green Party Candidate Jill Stein: Something’s Rotten in Broward! — Need to Investigate Wasserman Schultz and Co.
City of Milwaukee defends its handling of absentee ballots amid criticism from Scott Walker
“Thousands of ballots were damaged and had to be re-created,” Reisinger… “Until there is a comparison of the original ballots to the re-created ballots, there is no way to judge their validity.”…
Fox’s Tucker Carlson @avgamerican58: If the last few days have taught us anything, it’s that our entire election process is completely broken. Every state needs audited, and corrected. Any politician not on board with this is violating their oath.  Wake up America. We’re being played.
@charliekirk11: It is an absolute miracle @realDonaldTrump won the Presidency with all the election and voter fraud that occurs in the key battleground states
Houston Chronicle Retracts 8 Stories after Fraud Investigation: ‘We Apologize to Our Readers’
The Houston Chronicle announced Thursday that they had retracted eight stories after an internal investigation found they relied heavily on sources who seemingly did not exist…
end
Popular Dr Dave Janda talks with Greg Hunter
a very good interview
(courtesy Janda/Greg Hunter)_

Declassify FISA & Indictments Follow – Dave Janda

By Greg Hunter On November 11, 2018 In Political Analysis

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Radio host Dr. Dave Janda says Attorney General Jeff Sessions was removed because he did not release declassified FISA documents before the midterm elections that were used to spy on Donald J. Trump. It was a treasonous failed coup attempt to remove a duly elected President, and now justice is about to be served. Dr. Janda explains, “I think the first thing you have to start with is declassifying documents, and I believe he is going to do that. I also believe there is a very short time window here. The time window is between now and when the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives. When these documents are declassified, the criminals’ response, whether Republican or Democrat globalist criminals, they are going to say you are misconstruing these texts between McCabe and Comey that implicated me. You are misconstruing what we had to do with these FISA warrants. . . . You don’t have the documentation to support me being involved in this. . . . It’s up to the players in the House right now to unleash this stuff. . . . The window is short. . . . If they wait until the House falls into the hands of the globalist Democrats, it’s going to be declassified and they will be screaming where is the proof, and the Democrats will be twiddling their fingers. . . .They will be working on impeaching the President and won’t bother with that stuff. So, they have a timeline, and the indictments don’t happen until the declassification occurs.”

So, who is going to be indicted first? Janda says, “If you start at the top part of the chain, you are going after the Rothchilds, Rockefellers, the Paysour family, Warburgs and Pincus family . . . that’s the top of the chain. I think they will get there, but I think they will take the middle level guys out first. That is the Obamas, the Clintons, the Holders, the Lynches, the Brennans, the Clappers and maybe there is going to be a Ryan in there, too. Maybe McCain’s name is going to surface again. It could might well be a number of the members of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate. They will be brought forward and linked to these documents when they are declassified.”

On the recent midterm elections, Janda says, “There was voter fraud before, during and after the midterm elections. My sources say there was a staggering amount of voting machines that were impounded Monday night before the election on Tuesday because they had pre-set votes in them. This involved voting machines in all 50 states. . . . Trump had teams out there making sure of the integrity of the vote. That is just some of the voter fraud before the elections. . . . There are a lot of federal officials on the ground. . . . I think this is going to go by the way of the Jill Stein recount event.” Meaning, massive voter fraud will be uncovered in multiple locations across America.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Dr. Dave Janda from Operation Freedom.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/declassify-fisa-indictments- follow-dave-janda/

-END-

I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON TUESDAY IF ALL GOES WELL
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: