NOV 9/CLASSIC RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER TODAY: GOLD DOWN $16.80 TO $1207.80/SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TO $14.15/DOW DOWN 200 POINTS WITH THE NASDAQ DOWN 123.98 POINTS/CHINESE YUAN TO THE DOLLAR DOWN TO 6.9567//THE ALL IMPORTANT 10 YR ITALIAN YIELD/GERMAN 10 BUND YIELD: 2.99.%.DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 3.00%/10 USA TREASURY YIELD STILL DANGEROUSLY HIGH AT 3.18%/JEFFERY SNIDER ON HUGE AMOUNT OF USA DOLLARS LEAVING CHINA…A MUST READ!/ARGENTINA FACES CHINA AS THEY PROVIDE A HUGE 8.7 BILLION DOLLAR SWAP ARRANGEMENT AS THEY TRY AND BAIL OUT THE COUNTRY/LOOKS LIKE ELECTION FRAUD IN BOTH FLORIDA AND ARIZONA/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1207.80 DOWN  $16.80 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.15 DOWN 29 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1209.45

 

silver: $14.16

 

IT IS MUCH EASIER FOR THE BOYS TO RAID ON FRIDAY BECAUSE CHINA AND LONDON ARE CLOSED AT NOON AND THUS THE CROOKS DO NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT BEING DELIVERED UPON UNTIL MONDAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT:1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  194  for 19400 OZ  (0.6034 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

28 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

140,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1391 for 6,955,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6435: down  $43

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6410  down 716 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY  2546 CONTRACTS FROM 214,502 DOWN TO  211,956  WITH YESTERDAY’S 15 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  3282 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 3282 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3282 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3282 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.41 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 15 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 6,970,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 

17,929 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 17,929 CONTRACTS) OR 89.65MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2561 CONTRACTS OR 12.806 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  89.65 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 12.80% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,519.37    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2546 WITH THE 15 CENT DECLINE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3282 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED: 736 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 3282 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2546 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THUS GOOD  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 15 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.44 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH  IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.05 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW  6.970 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.059 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 28 NOTICE(S) FOR 140,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT 6.970 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD  SIZED 3544 CONTRACTS UP TO 499,905 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A DROP IN PRICE OF $3.30).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  STRONG SIZED 7692 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 7692 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 499,905. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED RISE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,236 CONTRACTS:  53544 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7692 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 11,236 CONTRACTS OR 1,123,600 OZ = 34.94 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A  FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $3.30???.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5364 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 50,571 CONTRACTS OR 5,057,100 OZ OR 157.29 TONNES (7 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7224 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 157.29 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 157/29/2550 x 100% TONNES =  6/16% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,367.25  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3544 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($3.30) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7692 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7692 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG RISE OF 11,236 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7692 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3544 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 34.94 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $3,30 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX????.

 

 

we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80 TODAY: / 

 

no changes in gold inventory at the GLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   755.23 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 755.23 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY

 

A NO CHANGES  AT THE SLV:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY 2546 CONTRACTS from 214,502 DOWN TO 211,956  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

3282 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3282 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2546 CONTRACTS TO THE 3282 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A FAIR  NET GAIN OF 736 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.494 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW 6.97 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 15 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 3282 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.76 POINTS OR 1.39% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 625.80 POINTS OR 2.39% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 236.67 OR 1.05%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.08%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9484 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 59.81 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.74 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN AT 6.9484 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9437: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

i)Massive amounts of dollars are leaving China.  It is no doubt the sucking of these dollars by Trump who needs to fund 1.9 trillion of debt and Fed roll off.  It is creating a nightmare scenario for the Chinese as they too along with emerging markets are suffering from a lack of dollars

( Jeffery Snider/Alhambra Investments)

a must read….

ii)This is major!!  POBC has given a directive that large banks must issue 1/3 of their entire loans to private companies even though they know that 2/3 of these will probably default.  This sent Chinese stocks plummeting because they know this is unsustainable

( zerohedge)

iii)Ken Rogoff is correct:  as China is slowing down, instead of lower interest rates, we will witness higher rates and that will doom the world’ global economy

( Ken Rogoff/Guardian)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)FRANCE/IRAN/USA

Macron is leading France in protecting the Iran/EU oil trade from USA sanctions

( Paraskova /OilPrice.com)

 

 

 

 

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Iran/USA

Pompeo correctly states that the leadership must decide if they want their people to eat

( zerohedge)

ii)SAUDI ARABIA

Jerusalem Post reports on a foiled assassination attempt on Saudi Crown Prince MbS’s life. Supposedly  the plot was discovered by the Egyptians.  However we do not no where the perpetrators are at this moment ie. have they been sent to Saudi Arabia or are they still in Egypt
( zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Canada/USA

This is a key defeat for Trump as a judge blocks the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.  This is very bad for Canada

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

ARGENTINA

Argentina faces China as it signs a $8.7 billion swap deal similar to the one signed with Venezuela’s swap with China.  It sure looks like the west is losing ground to China..

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

a)Seems that the Bank of England does not have Venezuela’s gold
( Gibbs/The times of London/GATA)

b)Chinese  demand for gold in October remains strong at 143 tonnes.

(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

i(Not good:  GE collapses to an 8 handle.  The price is unchanged from 1995

( zerohedge)

ii)Raid today as stocks fall as well as gold. Yields tumble after a hot PPI.

( zerohedge)

ii)Market data/

a)Pay special attention to the following:  Graham is correct…the Fed just told everyone that they are on their own and that their is no Fed put

( Graham Summers)

b)Soft data, University of Michigan sentiment slides and for the first time “hope” also fades along with buying plans

The USA economy is faltering badly

( zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Recount looms again in Florida after the Republican victories but suspicions galore about possible vote tampering

( zerohedge)

b)Looks like we have voter fraud in both Arizona and Florida..no who would have guessed

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Here is the list of people who might replace Sessions on a permanent basis.

( zerohedge)

b)

This will go nowhere as:
1.Trump used his own money
2. And it is legal to pay off someone so they will shut up/
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3544 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 499,905 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($3.30 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7692 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  7692 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7692 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  11,236 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7692 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG 3544 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 11,236 contracts OR 1,123,600 OZ OR 34.94 TONNES.

 

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 6 notices standing so we lost 0 contracts. We had 1 notice served upon yesterday

 

we gained 1 contracts or an additional 100 oz of gold will stand for gold at the comex and these guys refused to morphed into London based forwards as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus for the trouble.

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 8322 contracts  to 331,550 contracts.  January saw a  RISE TO 3400 FOR A GAIN OF 726 CONTRACTS.  February gained 9423 contracts to stand at 110,329 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 1 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 100 OZ.

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI fell BY 2546 CONTRACTS FROM 214,502 UP TO 211,956 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GOOD  OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 15 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 3282 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 3282 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 3282.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 736 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  2546 CONTRACT LOSSAT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 3282 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   736 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS FAIR DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 15 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 31 notices  standing for a loss of 247 contacts.  We had 275 notices served upon yesterday so we gained another 28 contracts or an additional 140,000 oz will  stand for delivery as these longs refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as not accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts. QUEUE JUMPING DID RETURN TO THE COMEX ARENA AS THIS PHENOMENON  (IN SILVER) HAS BEEN THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR OVER 19 MONTHS.

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we lost 3528 contracts down to 142,538.  January saw a gain of 70 contracts up to 1060 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a loss of 681 contracts  up to 53,854.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 28 notice(s) filed for 140,000 OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 246.374 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  290,993  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 9-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
5 contracts
(500 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
194 notices
19400 OZ
0.6034 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits nil oz
we had 0  adjustment..

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (194) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (6 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 19,900 OZ OR 0.6188 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (194 x 100 oz)  + {6)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1x 100 oz )which equals 19900 oz standing OR 0.6188 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE GAINED 1 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 100 WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD DID RETURN AS THE DEALERS QUEUE JUMPING OBTAINING GOLD AS THEY TRY AND PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.2969 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.6188 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  138,146.468 oz or   4.2969 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,013,936.429 oz 259.26 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 9, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,344,612.215 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
601,969.580
oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
28
CONTRACT(S)
140,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
(15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1391 contracts

(6955,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

lots of activity in the silver vaults today.

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.94% of all official comex silver. (151.4 million/291.4 million)

ii)Into Brinks:  601,969.580 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  601,969.580 oz

we had 3 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT:  627,825.135 oz
ii) Out of Delaware:  24,688.810 oz
iii) Out of Scotia:  692,098.270 oz

 

i

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,344,612.215  oz

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.835 million

total dealer + customer silver:  293.756  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 28 contract(s) FOR 140,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1391 x 5,000 oz = 6,955,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (31) and the number of notices served upon today (28 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 1391(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 31) -number of notices served upon today (28)x 5000 oz equals 6,970,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver. We GAINED 28 contracts or an additional 140,000 will  stand at the comex as these longs refused to accept a London based forwards as well as negating the right to receive a fiat bonus. QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER RETURNED IN EARNEST TODAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 124,780 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 111,023 CONTRACTS….

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 111,023CONTRACTS EQUATES to 555 million OZ  OR 79.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -4.76% (NOV 9/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.27% to NAV (NOV 9/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.76%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.17/TRADING 11.58/DISCOUNT 4.79

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.60″ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONNES

NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.80 A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.29 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.06 TONNES

NOV 1/: 2 TRANSACTIONS:WITH GOLD UP $23.85,A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES OF GOLD TO PAY FOR FEES, INSURANCE AND STORAGE: INVENTORY AT THE GLD RESTS AT 754.06 TONNES THEN A DEPOSIT OF 6.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.82

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 9.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 755.23 tonnes

*IN LAST 494 TRADING DAYS: 179.92 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 394 TRADING DAYS: A NET 19.62 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 3125.724 MILLION OZ/

NOV 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 281,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.

NOV 7: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.320 MILLION OZ/

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN  18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

 

 

NOV 9/2018:

 

Inventory 325.724 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY./

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.37/ and libor 6 month duration 2.86

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .59

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.65%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.14

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.49

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG

AMERICAN ELECTIONS FARCE AS POLITICIANS IGNORE THE LOOMING $121.7 TRILLION DEBT CRISIS

In today’s update we look at yet another ‘Punch and Judy’ American election farce which once again ignored the ‘Elephant in the room’ – the inevitable U.S. $121.7 trillion debt crisis and the coming global $250 trillion debt crisis.

We briefly look at the outcome of the elections, how markets have reacted in the short term and more importantly the long term outlook for markets and the dollar

We examine the “Punch and Judy” farce that were the American elections this week in which both the politicians, the media and the people again managed to completely ignore one of the greatest financial, economic and societal challenges facing the U.S. and indeed the world – the coming U.S. and global debt crisis.

Trump said he would erase America’s debt in 8 years. It’s now bigger than ever. When this promise was made, the national debt stood at $19 trillion. When Trump became President the US National debt was just below $20 trillion; it has since risen to $21.7 trillion.

During Obama’s presidency, the total national debt has risen from $10.6 trillion to nearly $20 trillion.

This debt is just the nominal national debt and there is also the not insignificant matter of the between $100 trillion and $200 trillion in unfunded liabilities – for medicare, medicaid and social security. As the Baby Boomers retire, these liabilities are coming due in the coming years.

The U.S., like the EU and most western nations, is “kicking the can down the road.” Consequently, a U.S. and global debt crisis looks likely in the coming months and years.

Trump was elected on a promise to reduce the debt and government spending including that on the military and the Deep State. Not only has he failed miserably in this goal – he had done the opposite. He has not been a man of his word and like a lot of politicians – both Republican and Democrat, left and right – he talks the talk but completely fails to walk the walk!

Politics in the U.S. and globally has been reduced to a modern ‘Punch and Judy’ show. It is akin to a kids puppet show in which the competitors beat each other up and it is a distraction for the child like electorate. The politicians resemble mere puppets to corporate and Wall Street vested interests who are ‘pulling the strings’ and enriching themselves from behind the political stage.

This is happening at the expense of individuals, families, farmers, entrepreneurs, small and medium size enterprises, less politically connected corporations and banks and ultimately society itself.

Massive military expenditures are justified – nearly half of U.S. government expenditure now goes to the arms industry – by scaring the people with the latest bogeyman du jour. There are evil villains every where as the Deep State and their corrupt and idiotic politicians and a compliant media who do the fear mongering of the Deep State. Constant political and media fear mongering and “cat calls” of “look behind you” at the latest enemy of the day.

The lists grows longer by the day:
Evil Russia in Soviet era to evil Saddam Hussein and Iraq (once an ally) to Gadafi in Libya (once an ally) to North Korea (who were an existential threat and evil one week and then became allies more recently and “Little Rocket Man” may become an enemy again if necessary) to evil Muslims everywhere (except fundamentalist Saudi Arabia who West sells arms to) to evil Russians again in recent years, and now we appear set for an even bigger enemy – those evil Chinese who are now hacking our devices and trying to monitor us. Western governments would never do such a thing!

Tweedle Dum Tweedle Dee: During the 2000 United States presidential election, candidate Ralph Nader claimed that George W. Bush and Al Gore were not very different in their policies and how they had become captured by corporate and Wall Street interests. He rightly called them the parties and candidates – Tweedledum and Tweedledee.

Trajectory towards empire is inexorable and now has a momentum and life of its own alas. Ralph Nader, Ron Paul were opportunities to change the trajectory which were not embraced unfortunately.

Ultimately all of this bodes badly for the US, its economy and the US dollar.

The threats posed to the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency of the world and the coming dollar and fiat currency devaluations as currency wars intensify make owning physical gold in the safest ways possible essential to all who wish to preserve wealth in the coming years.

END

NOV 9

ii) GATA stories
Seems that the Bank of England does not have Venezuela’s gold
(courtesy Gibbs/The times of London/GATA)

Bank of England stalls return of Venezuela’s gold

 Section: 

This should clean out the rest of the Bank of England’s custodial gold PDQ.

* * *

Maduro Scrambles to Bring Venezuela’s Gold Back from the UK

By Stephen Gibbs
The Times, London
Wednesday, November 7, 2018

CARACAS — President Maduro of Venezuela is trying to repatriate at least 14 tonnes of gold held at the Bank of England, fearing that access could be frozen under U.S. sanctions against his regime.

The bank has refused to release the gold bars, worth about L420 million, according to sources. British officials are understood to have insisted that standard measures to prevent money laundering be taken — including clarification of the Venezuelan government’s intentions for the gold.

There are concerns that Mr Maduro may seize the gold, which is owned by the state, and sell it for personal gain. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/maduro-scrambles-to-bring-venezuela-s…


* * *

end


iii) Other Physical stories
Chinese  demand for gold in October remains strong at 143 tonnes.
(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS : Chinese gold demand may be slipping, but only just

The latest figures for Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) monthly gold withdrawals are in (for October) and they show a marginal downturn from those for the same month a year earlier. But then October can be an anomalous month given the week long Golden Week holiday at the beginning of the month during which time the SGE is closed for business so perhaps not too much should be read into the latest data.

Withdrawals for the year to date are still marginally up on a year earlier, so we will have to wait for November’s figures (usually a strong month) to see if there is any specific trend downwards yet. A Table showing the monthly gold withdrawals data year to date, with comparative figures for the prior two years, is shown below:

At the moment China is still on track for another2,000 tonne plus gold withdrawals year, but if full year demand slips a little we shouldn’t be too surprised. Gold imports from Switzerland and Hong Kong – the two principal published sources for China’s direct gold imports, both appear to be slipping a little and the U.S.-imposed tariffs will be having some adverse impacts on China’s domestic economy which may be leading to a reduction in disposable income among the gold-buying public.. The country’s own gold production is reported to be slipping too as tighter environmental controls are being implemented leading to reduced production, and even closures, at some of the country’s own gold mines.

We continue to equate SGE gold withdrawal levels to our own estimate of China’s gold demand, although some of the prominent gold consultancies may disagree and come up with lower figures. However SGE gold withdrawal figures consistently would seem to equate far closer to known Chinese gold imports, plus the country’s own production plus an allowance for scrap conversion than do the consultancies’ published demand estimates. At the very least SGE gold withdrawals have to represent a measure of the country’s gold flows which is comparable month on month and year on year with previous years.

https://www.sharpspixley.com/articles/lawrie-williams- chinese-gold-demand-may-be-slipping-but-only- just_286751.html

end

No wonder gold fell in October:  BIS intervention rose sharply after falling in August and September

(courtesy  Robert Lambourne)

With BIS intervention rising sharply in October, gold price stalled

By: Robert Lambourne
— Published: Friday, 9 November 2018 |

After falling in August and September, intervention in the gold market by the Bank for International Settlements via gold swaps increased substantially in October, according to the bank’s monthly statement of account, published this week:

https://www.bis.org/banking/balsheet/statofacc181031.pd f

The bank’s August and September statements are here:

https://www.bis.org/banking/balsheet/statofacc180831.pd f

https://www.bis.org/banking/balsheet/statofacc180930.pd f

Perhaps not coincidentally, the gold price rose in August and September as the BIS reduced its intervention in the market and then stalled and leveled out in October as the bank greatly increased its intervention again.

The monthly statements of the BIS give only summary information on the bank’s use of gold swaps and other gold-related derivatives. The information in the statements is not sufficient to calculate a precise amount of gold-related derivatives, including swaps. But, after subtracting the gold reported owned by the BIS itself, the bank’s total estimated gold exposure as of October 31 was around 372 tonnes — 134 tonnes, or 56 percent, greater than the approximately 238 tonnes as of September 30.

As of August 31 the bank’s total estimated gold exposure was around 370 tonnes and around 485 tonnes as of July 31.

When it comes to its activities in the gold market, the BIS provides little information on what it is doing, why, and for whom:

http://www.gata.org/node/17793

But the bank continues to trade actively in gold swaps to source gold to its member central banks and other financial entities, as evidenced by the increase in October.

—–

Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9484/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9437   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 36/76 POINTS OR 1.39%

. HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 628.80 POINTS OR 2.39%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 236.67POINTS OR 1.05%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.77/Euro FALLS TO 1.1348

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.86/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 59.81 and Brent: 69.74

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE:  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.43%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.44% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.60%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.40

3k Gold at $1218.95 silver at:14.33   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 36/100 in roubles/dollar) 67.28

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.86DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0063 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1421 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.43%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.21% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.41%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4891

Global Stocks, Oil Tumble As Dollar Surges And

Familiar Fears Return

Was the Wednesday post-election rally a one-hit wonder? Was the FOMC, despite its surprisingly sparse statement, superhawkish? Was nothing actually fixed this week (narrator: “it wasn’t”) and are all the “same old” fears – trade wars, interest rates, China, tighter financial conditions, peak earnings, slowing global economy – haunting the market making a comeback?

Those are questions on traders’ minds this morning as global markets were headed for their biggest drop in two weeks, awash in a sea of red, as the MSCI World index fell half a percent, its biggest drop since Oct. 26 …

… as Brent tumbles below $70/barrel to a 6 month low, while WTI is now 21% below its recent high and has entered a bear market, now down for a record 10th consecutive day in a row

… and as the dollar surge brings it just shy of the 2018 highs as the yuan resumed weakening on growing concerns about a slowdown in China, despite inflation data out of Beijing overnight that came in as expected.

While the Fed’s decision to hold rates was expected, some traders had expected an even more dovish approach and a mention of the October rout; its absence led to an overly hawkish take with the Fed confirming a December increase is a distinct possibility for the robust US economy. That contrasts sharply with China, where cooling producer price inflation and falling car sales suggested an economy struggling to gain traction.

“Worries about trade wars and how the slowdown in China will impact the rest of the world mean stocks appear to be more risky, so there’s a typical risk-off move in markets today,” said DZ Bank rates strategist Pascal Segesser.

And as “plain vanilla” growth risks return now that the election is gone, stocks in Hong Kong and China were the main losers in Asia, where a financial sector sub-index fell more than 2 percent after China’s banking watchdog told lenders to allocate at least a third of new loans to private companies, raising the prospects of a jump in bad assets.  Additionally, a decline in Chinese PPI, weak car sales and a disappointing outlook from a top online travel company combined to reignite lingering concerns about the health of the world’s second-biggest economy as BBG notes. As as result, the Shanghai Composite, a barometer for overall risk sentiment outside the US, continued to slide, and was down 1.4%, closing just below 2,600, its lowest level since the end of September.

European stocks followed Asia lower, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index down 0.7%, dragged lower by mining and energy shares after crude oil entered a bear market and most industrial metals fell, while disappointing forecasts from Richemont and Thyssenkrup AG also weighed on the index.

US equity futures contracts pointed to second day of declines for U.S. stocks.

Losses in equities pressured bond yields lower, with debt in Germany and the United States rising across the board, pressured by world trade frictions and a budget standoff between Italy and Brussels.

Meanwhile, in FX, the confident Fed boosted the dollar, which had weakened sharply after mid-term elections this week raised the prospects of U.S. political gridlock. The greenback gained a quarter of a percent against the euro and half a percent against the British pound, and is back to just shy of its 2018 highs. The DXY dollar index gained 0.25 percent to 96.86. The Aussie swung to a loss as the central bank’s economic forecasts disappointed traders. The pound erased some of this week’s gains as the Irish border continued to be the biggest hurdle to a Brexit divorce deal; U.K. data was mixed, with the trade deficit shrinking while industrial production and services figures were underwhelming.

In commodities, oil prices fell to multi-month lows as global supply increased and investors worried about the impact from soaring US output, set to hit a record 12mmbpd, and concerns about fuel demand from of lower economic growth and trade disputes.  Benchmark Brent crude oil fell to its lowest since early April, down more than 18 percent since reaching four-year highs at the beginning of October. Also overnight, the sturdy dollar tarnished the appetite for safe-haven gold with the price down 0.2% at $1221.42 an ounce.

 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,796.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 365.14
  • MXAP down 1.1% to 152.39
  • MXAPJ down 1.4% to 485.31
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 22,250.25
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,672.98
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.4% to 25,601.92
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 2,598.87
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 35,156.02
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,921.85
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,086.09
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to 0.429%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1338
  • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $70.49/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 5.7 bps to 3.025%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 1.602%
  • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $70.50/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,220.88
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.85

Top Overnight News

  • Labor Secretary Alex Acosta, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and U.S. Appeals Court Judge Edith Jones are among the people White House aides and outside advisers are considering to replace Jeff Sessions as the nation’s top law enforcement officer
  • The White House is unprepared to defend itself against a coming wave of investigations by newly empowered House Democrats, who have vowed to probe everything from cabinet members’ ethics scandals to conflicts of interest involving the president’s business empire
  • UBS risks billions in fines as its two biggest legal cases in years are hitting the final stretch, in a test of Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti’s strategy of taking on French and U.S. authorities
  • China laid out banks’ lending targets for private companies, as it aims to boost large banks’ loans to private companies to at least one-third of new corporate lending
  • India’s government is asking the central bank to hand over a part of its surplus reserves to put that to more productive use, an official told reporters
  • Amid optimism a Brexit deal could be reached soon, the Irish border issue continues to be the biggest hurdle while crunching the numbers suggests any deal faces a difficult journey through Parliament

Asian equity markets traded lower following a lacklustre lead from Wall St where the mid-term stock rally stalled as focus shifted to the FOMC. ASX 200 (-0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) were lower with energy stocks pressured after a continued slump in oil prices and as soft earnings results also clouded over Tokyo sentiment. Hang Seng (-2.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) were the worst hit in the region as tech and energy stocks lagged, while continued PBoC liquidity inaction and inline inflation data proved to be inconclusive for sentiment. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with prices uneventful as the pressure from the recent losses in T-notes was counterbalanced by the risk averse tone and BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 980bln of JGBs across the curve.

Top Asian News

  • A Fifth of China’s Housing Is Empty. That’s 50 Million Homes
  • PBOC’s Yi Warns of Uncertainties in Fed’s Policy, Trade Tensions
  • Russia Challenges U.S. in Hosting Taliban at Afghan Talks
  • China Banks Fall on Concern Loan Targets Are a Step Too Far

Major European equities are lower across the board (Eurostoxx 50 -0.8%) as the sentiment seen in Asia spills over onto the region. Material names lag amid the slump in base metal prices, while consumer staples outperform. The finance sector is also experiencing weakness with the likes of Spanish banks exposed to Mexico (BBVA -6.7%, Sabadell -2.8%, Santander -2.4%) pressured after Mexican banks fell overnight amid a surprise proposal from the incoming President AMLO to scrap bank fees. (Note: BBVA made 28% of its revenues and 34% of its operating income from Mexico last year.) Meanwhile, UBS (-4.3%) shares declines after the US Justice Department filed a lawsuit against the bank for defrauding investors in its sales of mortgage-backed securities leading up to the global financial crisis. Over in Germany, steel-maker Thyssenkrupp (-11.0%) shares slumped after the company announced a profit warning due to provisions for an ongoing cartel probe and quality problems at its auto business. Elsewhere, Richemont (-6.7%) shares declines amid disappointing earnings, hitting the likes of European Luxury names (LVMH -2.0%, Kering -3.6%) in sympathy.

Top European News

  • Turkey Cancels 3 Bond Auctions on Reduced Financing Needs
  • Pound Skeptics Turn Believers as Brexit Divorce Deal Looks Near
  • France Seizes Ryanair Plane to Force State Aid Repayment
  • Telecom Italia Scraps Debt Plan, Sees $2.3 Billion Writedown

In FX, the dollar appears to have stopped for the Greenback on Wednesday, and its resurgence from mid-term election lows has been fuelled to a degree by the latest FOMC policy statement that effectively underpins market expectations for a December hike. Amidst almost universal gains vs currency counterparts, the index is now nudging 97.000 from just shy of 95.700 at one stage and the 2018 peak of 97.201 is back within striking distance. GBP – Brexit impulses continue to ebb and flow between positive vibes on deal prospects and the proverbial cliff edge withdrawal, but the bottom line is that Irish border and back-stop differences remain unresolved to leave the UK at risk of failing to agree terms at home and/or with the EU. Hence, Sterling has lost momentum and is underperforming alongside the NOK (undermined by much softer than expected Norwegian inflation data to trade down around 9.5700 vs the Eur) within the G10 ranks, as Cable teeters above 1.3000, and largely shrugged off a barrage of UK data (GDP firm and trade above consensus, but other elements less encouraging). CAD/EUR – The next worst majors, with Loonie hit by collapsing oil prices and sliding towards 1.3200 vs its US peer, while the single currency continues its relatively sharp and abrupt pull-back from 1.1500 to retest support ahead of the 1.1300 ytd low. Ongoing Italian-EU budget differences are weighing along with more signs of a slowdown, or even weakness in the Eurozone economy, while hefty option expiries are also eyed (1.1300 in 1.1 bn, 1.1340-50 in 2.0 bn and 1.1375 in 1.3 bn for example). AUD/NZD – Also falling prey to their US rival’s revival and hardly helped by neutral or wait-and-see policy guidance from the RBA or RBNZ, as Aud/Usd recoils to sub-0.7250 and Nzd/Usd backs off further from almost 0.6800 to under 0.6750.

In commodities, WTI (-1.6%) and Brent (-1.4%) lost the USD 60/bbl and USD 70/bbl handles respectively, after the complex entered into bear market territory amid rising supply and concerns of a slowdown in global economic growth. Both benchmarks declined around 20% from the four-year highs reached at the front end of October and are set for a fifth straight week of declines, while North Sea Brent Crude hit seven-month lows. The slide has been exacerbated by US’ decision to permit eight countries to continue importing Iranian oil after the imposition of sanctions on the OPEC member, as well as record production of crude oil over in the States. Looking ahead, investors and traders will be focusing on this weekend’s meeting of OPEC and its allies where they are set to discuss output strategies in Abu Dhabi on Sunday. During the week, there were source reports that Russia and Saudi are to start discussing oil production cuts in 2019. This comes after OPEC’s October production reached the highest level since 2016, while Russia hiked its output in the prior month to recent highs of 11.4mln BPD. Producers on Sunday will have to discuss the threat of a glut alongside the prospect of lower demand from faltering EM economies and repercussions from US-Sino trade disputes.

Elsewhere, metals trade lower across the board with copper underperforming amid post-FOMC dollar strength and concerns regarding slowing global economic growth. Among precious metals, spot gold (-0.3%) tracks USD action, with the yellow metal dropping to the lowest level this month, while spot silver (-0.4%) is set for its largest weekly percentage decline in nine weeks. US Federal judge blocked Keystone XL Pipeline stating that US administration’s justification for the approval was incomplete, while the judge added that the State Department failed to evaluate climate impact, oil spills and cultural resources.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.6%; Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 2.5%; Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, prior 2.9%
  • 8:45am: Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 98, prior 98.6; Expectations, est. 87.2, prior 89.3; Current Conditions, est. 114.9, prior 113.1

 

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.76 POINTS OR 1.39% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 625.80 POINTS OR 2.39% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 236.67 OR 1.05%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.08%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9484 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 59.81 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.74 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN AT 6.9484 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9437: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3 C CHINA

Massive amounts of dollars are leaving China.  It is no doubt the sucking of these dollars by Trump who needs to fund 1.9 trillion of debt and Fed roll off.  It is creating a nightmare scenario for the Chinese as they too along with emerging markets are suffering from a lack of dollars

(courtesy Jeffery Snider/Alhambra Investments)

a must read….

 

China’s (Not) SAFE

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

In another sign of repeating 2015, the Chinese are beginning to mobilize their “reserves” again. Three years ago, in a futile attempt to staunch CNY’s stubborn “devaluation” various government authorities blew through just about $1 trillion. It didn’t work. You would think that everyone could learn from this episode.

I think the Chinese did, which is why in 2017 they engineered the bypass through Hong Kong in order to hide the continued peril; capital outflows in the mistaken parlance of the mainstream. All that changed, unsurprisingly, in January.

At first, unlike 2015, it was a trickle. Only small balances were deployed scattershot suggesting that officials weren’t going to repeat their mistake. Western Economists may still view foreign reserves as insurance against this kind of thing, but eurodollar squeeze #3 proved conclusively the absurdity of being so monetarily ignorant.

If you can’t steady your currency with $1 trillion, no one can. Period.

To chuck that mind-boggling amount into the ether and get nothing to show for it is about as conclusive a demonstration. The PBOC and others’ reluctance to do the same thing in 2018 is therefore understandable. They let CNY go mostly unaddressed (apart from some clandestine operations here or there) because what else were they going to do?

This, I believe, explains why CNY plummeted in 2018 compared to the “ticking clock” stairstep decline two and three years ago. That’s another aspect monetary officials may now appreciate, how in the end the mobilization of reserves tends to make things worse.

All that may be changing, however. I have to assume with great reluctance, pretty much they don’t know what else to do. Foreign reserves are flowing out of the government’s various pockets all over again. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported that in September 2018 total foreign reserves fell by $22.69 billion. It was the most since January, that prior month a one-off fix.

Today, SAFE estimates that in October China shed another $33.93 billionThis was the largest monthly usage since the last ticking clock in 2016. On a 2-month basis, it is pretty clear things are getting serious in China with CNY hanging just on the other side of 7.0.

It is a pretty clear signal for escalation. Of what? All these things are connected; from eurodollars to Chinese foreign reserves to Chinese internal money (RMB). They all follow from this exogenous state. As the eurodollar system goes, so does everything else in China (as well as everywhere else).

In this case, if A = B, and B = C, then obviously A = C. In other words, all the factors pictured below (3 charts) are the same thing approached from different Chinese angles: eurodollars.

Thus, working backward, the more China feels compelled to act against various forms of internal monetary tightness we know right then its origin. China tells us everything we need to know about the eurodollar system, and therefore the dollar nobody on this side of the world pays any attention to (continuing the age-old policy of benign neglect that in the past eleven years has devolved into just criminal neglect).

The dollar shortage, or eurodollar squeeze, however you wish to call it, is growing more disruptive not less (where’s federal funds lately?) We can see the results of the disorder scattered all across the globe. Nothing is more consistent with the sudden struggles in the European economy of late as China’s declining foreign reserve balances.

Likewise, the absolutely huge warning in the oil market, the futures curve going contango, is very much related to China going 2015.

The list of unwelcome developments is multiplying and amplifying. Even the Western mainstream is finding it more and more difficult to just skate past all this. Bloomberg last week (thanks M. Simmons):

The world’s major economies that entered 2018 accelerating in sync risk entering 2019 decelerating in sync.

The shift is being led by China, where the economy’s weakest performance since 2009 is set to worsen unless a peace can be struck in the trade war with the U.S. Factory readings from Asia already show a fallout, with Taiwan, Thailand and Malaysia slipping into contraction territory.

The euro-area too is losing momentum, expanding in the third quarter at half the pace of the prior three months as Italy and Germany stagnated.

Even the US may not be invulnerable, if the Economists quoted by the article are right (though they don’t know why, sticking with this trade war theory). I wrote back in September, as for months before, just where this is all heading:

From 2003 to 2009, it went: globally synchronized growth, decoupling, globally synchronized downturn. From 2010 to 2012, it went: globally synchronized growth, decoupling, globally synchronized downturn. From 2013 to 2016, it went: strong global growth (not synchronized), decoupling, synchronized downturn.

Last year to this year, it has gone: globally synchronized growth, decoupling. What comes next?

The answer is given to us by SAFE.

end
This is major!!  POBC has given a directive that large banks must issue 1/3 of their entire loans to private companies even though they know that 2/3 of these will probably default.  This sent Chinese stocks plummeting because they know this is unsustainable
(courtesy zerohedge)

Unprecedented “Desperation” Lending Directive Sends Chinese Stocks Reeling

On November 8, China shocked markets with its latest targeted stimulus in the form of an “unprecedented” lending directive ordering large banks to issue loans to private companies to at least one-third of new corporate lending, said Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. The announcement sparked a new round of investor concerns about what is being unsaid about China’s opaque, private enterprises, raising prospects of a fresh spike in bad assets.

Guo’s comments were the latest attempt by authorities to try to improve funding access for China’s non-state companies, which have been struggling to get bank loans in the aftermath of China’s crackdown on shadow lending. More importantly, it was the first time financial regulators had given targets on private lending, confirmation that earlier efforts hadn’t sparked the necessary credit activity.

More importantly, this is the first time China set formal goals for private lending, a step it refrained from even during the financial crisis of 2008 according to BloombergThe stimulus package it implemented at the time swelled bad debt levels, which now threaten to swallow any new money poured into private companies. Non-state firms defaulted on 67.4 billion yuan ($9.7 billion) of local bonds this year, 4.2 times that of 2017, while the overall Chinese market is headed for a year of record defaults in 2018.

According to commentators, the new policy was prompted by the need to ensure that China’s private firms, already challenged by China’s state-owned behemoths, survive amid a plunging stock market, record corporate defaults and a cooling economy. At the same time, the target for small and medium-sized banks is higher, at two-thirds of new corporate loans, with Guo adding that he wants to see loans to private companies account for at least half of total new corporate loans in three years.

But most importantly, this targeted lending will increase market concern on banks’ “civic duty” with Huatai Securities predicting a new sharp spike in NPL ratio amid the accelerating economic slowdown, which would prove negative for short-term sentiment.

“There is desperation among regulators, and sometimes muddled polices are difficult to avoid under this kind of pressure,” said Jiang Liangqing, a Beijing-based fund manager at Ruisen Capital Management. “Investors are voting with their feet.”

* * *

Also this week, PBOC Governor Yi announced a policy combination of “3 arrows” to support additional liquidity to the private sector, including bank loans, debt and equity financing. The arrows, per Goldman, were the following:

  • Firstly, PBOC is looking into the possibility of promoting equity financing for private firms. The central bank is working with various financial institutions such as fund managers and brokerages on this initiative.
  • Secondly, PBOC will expand a recently launched scheme to promote private firms’ bond issuance in collaboration with financial regulators. Three companies have already raised 1.9 billion yuan of bonds with over-subscription, and 30 more private enterprises are preparing for bond issuance.
  • Thirdly, PBOC will add a new metric in the MPA formula to encourage lending to private companies. They will also increase the supply of long term and reasonably priced funding for financial institutions (further RRR cuts would fit this goal, in our view).

As Goldman notes, “it is rare for a senior official to openly acknowledge previous policy missteps.” As a result, this is likely in response to the recent meetings hosted by President Xi, especially the one with entrepreneurs. That meeting was unique in that it carried the highest political authority and at the same time was very specific in terms of the measures to be taken.

As such, it likely put the onus on senior officials who attended the meeting to act in a timely manner. While the governor stated there is no change in the overall monetary policy stance, which is described as prudent, and more support for the real economy via more bond issuance had been stated previously, his comment on past policy missteps suggests a change in policy stance. Rather, the reiteration of the current policy stance should be read more as an indication that the PBOC will be measured in terms of the size of additional loosening. In terms of more tangible measures, Goldman now sees a higher probability that TSF growth will accelerate from now, but likely at a very measured pace. Worse, many of these new funds will end up funding underperforming assets, resulting in a spike in on-performing loans and more bad debt.

Sure enough, overnight the Shanghai Composite was hammered again, sliding 1.4% to the lowest level since the end of September, and back below 2,600…

… while the Shenzhen Financial index sliding 2.2%, following another drop the previous day.

The Friday drop followed a Thursday rout when the news was first announced which saw the major banks tumble as a result of this latest government intervention in capital allocation, with the following results: Bank of Shanghai -4%, China Merchants Bank -4%, ICBC -3.3%, Agricultural Bank of China -2.9%, Industrial Bank -2.5%, Bank of China -1.6%, Bank of Communications -1.3%

end

Ken Rogoff is correct:  as China is slowing down, instead of lower interest rates, we will witness higher rates and that will doom the world’ global economy

(courtesy Ken Rogoff/Guardian)

“A Chinese Recession Is Inevitable” – Ken Rogoff Ruins ‘Decoupled-America’ Narrative

Authored by Kenneth Rogoff, op-ed via The Guardian,

Analysts say a Chinese recession would only hurt the region. That may be wishful thinking…

When China finally has its inevitable growth recession – which will almost surely be amplified by a financial crisis, given the economy’s massive leverage – how will the rest of world be affected? With US President Donald Trump’s trade war hitting China just as growth was already slowing, this is no idle question.

Typical estimates, for example those embodied in the International Monetary Fund’s assessments of country risk, suggest an economic slowdown in China will hurt everyone. But the acute pain, according to the IMF, will be more regionally concentrated and confined than would be the case for a deep recession in the United States.

Unfortunately, this might be wishful thinking.

First, the effect on international capital markets could be vastly greater than Chinese capital market linkages would suggest. However jittery global investors may be about prospects for profit growth, a hit to Chinese growth would make things a lot worse. Although it is true that the US is still by far the biggest importer of final consumption goods (a large share of Chinese manufacturing imports are intermediate goods that end up being embodied in exports to the US and Europe), foreign firms nonetheless still enjoy huge profits on sales in China.

Investors today are also concerned about rising interest rates, which not only put a damper on consumption and investment, but also reduce the market value of companies (particularly tech firms) whose valuations depend heavily on profit growth far in the future. A Chinese recession could again make the situation worse.

I appreciate the usual Keynesian thinking that if any economy anywhere slows, this lowers world aggregate demand, and therefore puts downward pressure on global interest rates. But modern thinking is more nuanced. High Asian saving rates over the past two decades have been a significant factor in the low overall level of real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates in both the US and Europe, thanks to the fact that underdeveloped Asian capital markets simply cannot constructively absorb the surplus savings.

Former US Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke famously characterised this much-studied phenomenon as a key component of the “global savings glut”. Thus, instead of leading to lower global real interest rates, a Chinese slowdown that spreads across Asia could paradoxically lead to higher interest rates elsewhere – especially if a second Asian financial crisis leads to a sharp draw-down of central bank reserves. Thus, for global capital markets, a Chinese recession could easily prove to be a double whammy.

As bad as a slowdown in exports to China would be for many countries, a significant rise in global interest rates would be much worse. Eurozone leaders, particularly German Chancellor Angela Merkel, get less credit than they deserve for holding together the politically and economically fragile single currency against steep economic and political odds. But their task would have been well-nigh impossible but for the ultra-low global interest rates that have allowed politically paralysed eurozone officials to skirt needed debt write-downs and restructurings in the periphery.

When the advanced countries had their financial crisis a decade ago, emerging markets recovered relatively quickly, thanks to low debt levels and strong commodity prices. Today, however, debt levels have risen significantly, and a sharp rise in global real interest rates would almost certainly extend today’s brewing crises beyond the handful of countries (including Argentina and Turkey) that have already been hit.

Nor is the US immune. For the moment, the US can finance its trillion-dollar deficits at relatively low cost. But the relatively short-term duration of its borrowing – under four years if one integrates the Treasury and Federal Reserve balance sheets – means that a rise in interest rates would soon cause debt service to crowd out needed expenditures in other areas. At the same time, Trump’s trade war also threatens to undermine the US economy’s dynamism. Its somewhat arbitrary and politically driven nature makes it at least as harmful to US growth as the regulations Trump has so proudly eliminated. Those who assumed that Trump’s stance on trade was mostly campaign bluster should be worried.

The good news is that trade negotiations often seem intractable until the 11th hour. The US and China could reach an agreement before Trump’s punitive tariffs go into effect on 1 January. Such an agreement, one hopes, would reflect a maturing of China’s attitude toward intellectual property rights – akin to what occurred in the US during the late 19th century. (In America’s high growth years, US entrepreneurs often thought little of pilfering patented inventions from the United Kingdom.)

A recession in China, amplified by a financial crisis, would constitute the third leg of the debt super-cycle that began in the US in 2008 and moved to Europe in 2010. Up to this point, the Chinese authorities have done a remarkable job in postponing the inevitable slowdown. Unfortunately, when the downturn arrives, the world is likely to discover that China’s economy matters even more than most people thought.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE/IRAN/USA

Macron is leading France in protecting the Iran/EU oil trade from USA sanctions

(courtesy Paraskova /OilPrice.com)

France Takes The Lead In Protecting Iran Oil Trade From U.S. Sanctions

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via Oilprice.com,

France aims to lead the European Union (EU) efforts in defying U.S. sanctions on Iran, by supporting the creation of a payment mechanism to keep trade with Iran and making the euro more powerful, France’s Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said in an interview with the Financial Times.

“Europe refuses to allow the US to be the trade policeman of the world,” Le Maire told FT, adding that the EU needs to “affirm its sovereignty” in the rift between the EU and the United States over the sanctions on Iran.

The EU has been trying to create a special purpose vehicle (SPV) that would allow the bloc to continue buying Iranian oil and keep trade in other products with Iran after the U.S. sanctions on Tehran return.

The idea behind the SPV is to have it act as a clearing house into which buyers of Iranian oil would pay, allowing the EU to trade oil with Iran without having to directly pay the Islamic Republic.

As the U.S. sanctions on Iran snapped back on Monday, the SPV hasn’t been operational and reports have had it that the undertaking is very complicated and politically sensitive. The bloc is also said to be struggling with the set-up, because no EU member is willing to host it for fear of angering the United States, the Financial Times reported recently, citing EU diplomats.

On Monday, the Belgium-based international financial messaging system SWIFT said that it would comply with the U.S. sanctions on Iran and would cut off sanctioned Iranian banks from its network. This was a blow to the EU’s attempts to defy the U.S. sanctions.

The decision by SWIFT highlights the need for an SPV, France’s Le Maire told FT, but he refused to name countries that could host such a special vehicle. Yet, there have been expressions of interest, he told FT.

Meanwhile, the United States has been dismissive of the idea of an SPV, and Brian Hook, U.S. Special Representative for Iran and Senior Policy Advisor to the Secretary of State, said in a press briefing with European reporters on Monday:

“We have not seen much, if any, demand for the Special Purpose Vehicle. I think if you take a look at the over 100 corporations that have decided to choose the United States market over the Iranian market, they’re not looking to avail themselves of any type of vehicle.”

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran/USA

Pompeo correctly states that the leadership must decide if they want their people to eat

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Iran’s Leadership Must Decide “If They Want Their

People To Eat” – Pompeo

Less than a week after US Secretary of State Secretary Mike Pompeo told Fox News Sunday that the “Iranians are responsible for the starvation’ of Yemeni civilians” he’s again issued hugely provocative words, telling the BBC during an interview that Iranian leadership has to make a decision that they want their people to eat”in reference to the latest round of US sanctions.

As the interview was with BBC Persian, Pompeo’s words were immediately translated from English and broadcast to the Iranian public through BBC’s Persian-language publication. Pompeo repeated his theme that Iran is the world’s foremost state sponsor of terror and a “destabilizing influence” in the Middle East while ultimately blaming the country’s economic suffering on the intransigence of the country’s leaders.

Pompeo’s words came on the heels of Iran’s foreign ministry issuing a formal response to this week’s US sanctions snap back on the energy sector, publishing a 3-minute video of FM Javad Zarif on Tuesday wherein Zarif emphasized that the sanctions mainly targeted average Iranian citizens, referencing “the economic warfare that directly targets the Iranian people.”

The most contentious segment of the BBC interview was as follows:

QUESTION: You say you are not punishing the people. You say that the sanctions are not targeting the people. But what if —

SECRETARY POMPEO: No, they’re not.

QUESTION: But what if the sanctions hurt the Iranian people, the ordinary lives of them?

SECRETARY POMPEO: The folks who are hurting the Iranian people are the ayatollah and Qasem Soleimani and the Iranian leadership. That’s who is bringing the difficulties to Iran today. And you see this. You see this when you read of the protests. You see this when Iranian people have a chance to speak, although we know the human rights there don’t permit the Iranian people to speak freely. It’s the regime that is inflicting harm on the Iranian people, not the world and not the United States.

QUESTION: But as you – but you say that this is not a democratic regime. You say that the regime doesn’t care for Iranian people. But you say you do care for Iranian people.

SECRETARY POMPEO: We do.

— State Dept. transcript of the BBC Persian interview

But with hundreds of thousands of common Iranians reportedly now struggling to find life-saving medicines due to the sanctionswe doubt the Iranian public is going to be convinced of Washington’s “care” and “concern” for common Iranians.

In the weeks leading up to the November 5th round of sanctions European governments attempted to persuade the White House to agree to guarantees or waivers of Iranian imports of basic foods and medicine — pleas that were reportedly rebuffed.

Addressing the medicine issue in the BBC interview, Pompeo denied that the US was disallowing the flow of life-saving drugs into the country, and made the following assertion: “Not only are the transactions themselves exempted – that is, the transactions in medicine, for example – but the financial transactions connected to that activity also are authorized,” he said.

Pompeo also claimed that “None of the sanctions that have been imposed prevent humanitarian assistance and, indeed, there are big exemptions for medicine for sure, pharmaceuticals, but also more broadly than that for agricultural imports too.”

end
Jerusalem Post reports on a foiled assassination attempt on Saudi Crown Prince MbS’s life. Supposedly  the plot was discovered by the Egyptians.  However we do not no where the perpetrators are at this moment ie. have they been sent to Saudi Arabia or are they still in Egypt
(courtesy zerohedge)

Saudi Crown Prince Claims Assassination Attempt Against Him Was Thwarted

BBC Arabic reports based an exclusive Jerusalem Post story that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman told a group of Evangelical leaders who met with him in Riyadh earlier this month there was a recent plot to assassinate him, and that the plan was thwarted by Egyptian intelligence. 

The Jerusalem Post first broke the story this week based on accounts of the returning Evangelical delegation who met with the crown prince on November 1. Joel Rosenberg, who led the delegation of American Evangelical Christians said MbS relayed that the head of Egyptian intelligence recently came to Riyadh to inform Saudi authorities that a terrorist cell with Saudi citizens had been caught in northern Sinai. “They were planning to assassinate me,” MbS told the American delegation.

Image via BloombergThe assassination plotters were reportedly arrested on Egyptian soil but it is unclear if they were transferred to Saudi Arabia or if they remain in an Egyptian prison. Likely MbS revealed the detail to elicit sympathy at a moment when for over a month he’s faced unprecedented media scrutiny over the October 2nd murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul.

He told the Evangelical delegation concerning Khashoggi’s death that his “enemies are exploiting this to the fullest” — perhaps implying that he’s put at greater risk of an assassination attempt or violence due to the backlash and wave of criticism he’s currently facing. He denied being behind the Khashoggi killing and condemned it as “a mistake” and a “heinous act” that will not go unpunished.

MbS further recently tried to present himself as vital to the West’s war on terror, and said further in the meeting with American pastors: “We must fight the extremists and defeat them or they will stop us and the reforms we are making to make life better for the people of Saudi Arabia.” He also vowed to shore up relations with the US and other regional allies and said: “We are fighting extremists in the ideological war and we are fighting terrorists in a physical war,” according to the Jerusalem Post.

MbS told a delegation of American Evangelical Christian Leaders in Riyadh that he was subject of an assassination plot. Interestingly, at a time when a number of international leaders have appeared to pull back public support for MbS, Israeli officials have issued rare positive words in defense of the Salman regime after recent years of quiet behind the scenes coordination with Saudi intelligence in places like Syria or Yemen. Last week Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a summit with East European leadersin Bulgaria that while the killing of the Saudi journalist at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul was “horrendous,” stability in Saudi Arabia is vital to global security.

Netanyahu’s frank assessment of the Khashoggi affair was as follows, according to Haaretz:

What happened in the Istanbul consulate was horrendous, and it should be duly dealt with. Yet at the same time I say that it is very important for the stability of the world, of the region and of the world, that Saudi Arabia remains stable.

Likely MbS will continue to emphasize his “war on terror” rhetoric to continue to attract positive relations with both Washington and Israel, and will also put himself forward as the victim.

Perhaps we will hear of more thwarted “assassination plots” to come from the mouths of Saudi officials, eliciting sympathy from a momentarily hostile press and world officials.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7  OIL ISSUES

Canada/USA

This is a key defeat for Trump as a judge blocks the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.  This is very bad for Canada

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

In Major Defeat For Trump, Judge Blocks Construction

Of Keystone XL Pipeline

In a setback for the Trump administration, a federal judge in Montana temporarily halted construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline late on Thursday on the grounds that the U.S. government did not complete a full analysis of the environmental impact of the TransCanada Corp project and failed to justify its decision granting a permit for the 1,200-mile long project designed to connect Canada’s tar sands crude oil with refineries on the Texas Gulf Coast. The ruling came in a lawsuit that several environmental groups filed against the U.S. government in 2017, soon after President Donald Trump announced a presidential permit for the project.

The judge, Brian Morris of the U.S. District Court in Montana, said President Trump’s State Department ignored crucial issues of climate change in order to further the president’s goal of letting the pipeline be built. In doing so, the administration ran afoul of the Administrative Procedure Act, which requires “reasoned” explanations for government decisions, particularly when they represent reversals of well-studied actions.

Morris wrote that a U.S. State Department environmental analysis “fell short of a ‘hard look’” at the cumulative effects of greenhouse gas emissions and the impact on Native American land resources.  He also ruled the analysis failed to fully review the effects of the current oil price on the pipeline’s viability and did not fully model potential oil spills and offer mitigations measures.

However, the decision does not permanently block a pipeline permit. It requires the administration to conduct a more thorough review of potential adverse impacts related to climate change, cultural resources and endangered species. The court essentially ordered a do-over.

Morris, a former clerk to the late Chief Justice William Rehnquist, was appointed to the bench by President Obama.

* * *

The ruling is a victory for environmentalists, tribal groups and ranchers who have spent more than a decade fighting against construction of the pipeline that will carry heavy crude to Steele City, Nebraska, from Canada’s oilsands in Alberta.

“The Trump administration tried to force this dirty pipeline project on the American people, but they can’t ignore the threats it would pose to our clean water, our climate, and our communities,” said the Sierra Club, one of the environmental groups involved in the lawsuit, adding that “today’s ruling makes it clear once and for all that it’s time for TransCanada to give up on their Keystone XL pipe dream.” The lawsuit prompting Thursday’s order was brought by a collection of opponents, including the indigenous Environmental Network and the Northern Plains Resource Council, a conservation coalition based in Montana.

On the other hand, the ruling was a major defeat for Trump, who attacked the Obama administration for stopping the project in the face of protests and an environmental impact study. Trump signed an executive order two days into his presidency setting in motion a course reversal on the Keystone XL pipeline as well as the Dakota Access pipeline.

In addition to the president, the ruling deals a major setback for TransCanada and could possibly delay the construction of the $8 billion, 1,180 mile (1,900 km) pipeline. It’s intended to be an extension of TransCanada’s existing Keystone pipeline, which was completed in 2013. Keystone XL (the initials stand for “export limited”) would transport up to 830,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Alberta, Canada, and Montana to Oklahoma and the Gulf Coast. In the U.S., the pipeline would stretch 875 miles through Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska, with the rest continuing into Canada.

Trump supported building the pipeline, which was rejected by former President Barack Obama in 2015 on environmental concerns relating to emissions that cause climate change. Trump said the project would lower consumer fuel prices, create jobs and reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil.

END

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

ARGENTINA

Argentina faces China as it signs a $8.7 billion swap deal similar to the one signed with Venezuela’s swap with China.  It sure looks like the west is losing ground to China..

(courtesy zerohedge)

Argentina Signs $8.7 Billion Swap Agreement With

Beijing To Shore Up Sagging Peso

Embattled Argentinian President Mauricio Macri has been scrambling to shore up his country’s struggling currency since the IMF’s executive board finally approved a record – and expanded – $57 billion bailout loan with the explicit condition that the country’s central bank refrain from using that money to support the Argentine peso.

But as Argentina’s battered economy has continued to deteriorate, the peso’s value has eroded dramatically as the central banks pushed , cementing its status as one of the worst-performing currencies of 2018, as traders ignored a series of frantic rate hikes that brought the overnight interest rate in the country to a staggering 60% (which appears somewhat more appealing next to the country’s annualized inflation rate of 40%).

Argentina

With Argentina’s economy slipping into a recession back in September, Macri’s government imposed strict fiscal controls to try and limit the country’s reliance on international debt markets – markets to which it only recently regained access. The country’s economic desperation, which has dented Macri’s popularity and cast doubt on his chances of winning reelection next year, prompted us to joke a few months back that it might be time for the ECB to jump on the IMF bailout bandwagon.

zerohedge@zerohedge

ARGENTINE PESO EXTENDS LOSS, HITS NEW ALL-TIME LOW AT 41.16/USD

Time to add ECB to IMF bailout

But unfortunately for the West, which sees Argentina and its business-friendly government as a key ally in a region that is slowly falling under Beijing’s sphere of influence, the savior that has emerged to shore up the peso, which has stabilized in recent weeks, though it remains near all-time lows, is not what US leaders would have hoped – particularly with this year’s G-20 conference, set to take place in Buenos Aires, only days away.

As the South China Morning Post reported on Thursday, China and Argentina are nearing a swap deal with China that would add another 60 billion yuan ($8.7 billion) to the Argentine central bank’s reserves, an influx of capital explicitly intended to boost confidence in the peso and help alleviate the country’s economic crisis before it enters Venezuela territory. The economic lifeline is particularly unnerving given decisions by Honduras and El Salvador to switch their diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, an unequivocal sign that their political and economic fealty now lies with the PRC.

Argentina’s recently installed central-bank governor announced the deal during a visit to Beijing, where a delegation of Argentinian economic officials are meeting with representatives of the Communist Party. The delegation reportedly met with PBOC Chairman Yi Gang on Wednesday.

“Argentina and China have signed a currency swap totaling 70 billion yuan before, and we are looking to expand it by adding another 60 billion yuan,” Guido Sandleris, Argentina’s new central bank governor, said in Beijing on Thursday.

The delegations “exchanged views over the financial situations of China and Argentina as well as bilateral financial cooperation,” according to state broadcaster CCTV. Ahead of the G-20 summit, President Xi Jinping is expected to visit China.

“This is a very important visit and we are going to sign around 30 protocols on all areas,” said Diego Ramiro Guelar, Argentina’s ambassador to China.

Trump and Xi are expected to meet on the sidelines of the G-20 for their first face-to-face talks on trade since Trump started slapping tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US over the summer. It will also mark the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders since Trump’s visit to Beijing late last year.

But as the SCMP, which has ties to the Communist Party, has warned that observers shouldn’t expect any breakthroughs on intellectual property or Chinese market access during the talks, the US is bound to view this latest encroachment on its sphere of influence as another deliberate threat.

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1348 DOWN .0019 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.86  DOWN 0.099  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3025 DOWN   0.0041  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3190  UP .0041 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 19 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1348; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 36/87 POINTS OR 1.39%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 625.80 POINTS OR 2.39% 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.08% /EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 236.67 POINTS OR 1.05%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 628.80 POINTS OR 2.39% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.76POINTS OR 1.39%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.08%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 236.67 POINTS OR 1.05%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1218.95.

silver:$14.33

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.21% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.41 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.77 UP 4  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.94% DOWN 1    in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12%  DOWN 0  BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.60% DOWN 1 IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.40 up 0   POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 178 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.41%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.99% DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM.

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1320 DOWN .0048 or 48 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113.84 DOWN .124 OR 12 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2977 UP .0088( POUND UP 88 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 81 basis points to 1.3225

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 48 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1320

The Yen FELL to 113.84 for a GAIN of 12 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 88 basis points, trading at 1.3225/

The Canadian dollar LOST 88 basis points to 1.3225

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9567-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9532(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.5017

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.12%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.18 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.39 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.94 UP 22 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 35.34 POINTS OR 0.49%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 1.84 POINTS  OR 0.02%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 24.70 POINTS OR 0.48%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 42.20 POINTS OR 0.02%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN:  117.03 POINTS OR 0,88%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.89 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 69.94 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    67.76  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .84 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER by 84 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.5017 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.41 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:59.85

 

BRENT:69.60

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.19%.. VERY deadly….and rate fell by a tiny amount despite the huge drop in the dow

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.39%/. VERY .deadly…

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1336 ( DOWN 32 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.79 DOWN .174 (YEN UP 18 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.88 up 16 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2971DOWN 95 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4631

the Russian rouble:  6795 DOWN 1.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 103 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3197 DOWN 54 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9567  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9454 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.41%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 201.82 POINTS OR 0.77%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 123.98  points or 1.65% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.36  CLOSED UP  0.64

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.6146%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/big jump today

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Stocks Slump As Post-Election Surge Ends With Post-Powell Purge

It was such a great ride… until today…

China stocks started the week confidently but ended weak with Shanghai Composite back below the 2600 Maginot Line…

 

Very mixed picture in Europe with Spain outperforming, Italy worst and the rest unch…

 

A roller-coaster week of oddness as US stocks were bid on post-election ‘gridlock’ when it was the opposite of gridlock that has sent stocks higher in the last two years… and then dumped when The Fed explained how great the economy was (and therefore it needs to be tamped down by hiking rates)… and then the ubiquitous Friday-closing-ramp…

 

Futures show the post-election pump and post-Powell dump best…

 

Dow bounced at its 50DMA, S&P bounced at its 200DMA, NASDAQ ended up below its 200DMA

 

On the week, Communication Services was crushed and Healthcare outperformed (especially post-election)…

 

FANG Stocks ended the week in the red after giving it all back today…

 

Financials outperformed (perhaps because they know Maxine Waters is running the show now), even as the yield curve flattened notably post-Fed…

 

GE was a bloodbath…

 

Treasury yields tumbled after the stronger than expected PPI print struck and extended on Navarro’s hawkish tone…30Y outperformed dramatically, 2Y was worst…

 

The Yield Curve flattened significantly on the week…

 

Breakevens tumbled today, finally catching down to crude’s collapse…

 

The Dollar was up for the second week in a row, erasing much of the drop from two weeks ago…

 

Offshore Yuan tumbled this week – its worst week since July

 

Bitcoin was unchanged on the week, Bitcoin Cash (ahead of its fork) was up 20%…

 

Dollar gains left their mark on the commodity space which ended notably weaker across the board…

 

WTI Crude fell for the 10th day in a row, retracing 50% of the two-year uptrend’s gains…

 

That is an all-time record losing streak…

But if you think WTI below $60 is bad – Canadian crude is back below $20!!

And the good news is – gas prices should come down…

Gold had an ugly week as the dollar rallied…

And while Yuan was weak, it strengthened notably against gold…

Finally, completely burying the lead, we note the price action of the largest equity market capitalization index in the world – the $24 trillion NYSE Composite…

As Brad Wishak notes, “Text book throw back fail at both the 200 and uptrend resistance…Bull trap the call from here…It’s just a matter of trickle down…”

 

 

market trading

Trading this afternoon:

Late this afternoon, we learn that there is no hope for a China/USA deal

Stocks Tumble, Dollar And Bonds Spike After Navarro Crushes Hopes For A China Deal,

Slams “Stench Of Goldman”

Anyone wondering what just spooked stocks, sent the dollar surging to YTD highs, and yields tumbling, look no further than Peter Navarro’s speech this morning, delivered at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where president Trump’s main China advisor not only lashed out at Goldman and “globalist billionaires”, but also accused Wall Street of “shuttle diplomacy” with Beijing, while predictably blasting his archnemesis, China, and repeating the point that “economic security is national security” is the guiding principle of Trump administration, and saying that “if China stopped stealing IP it would lose its economic edge” adding that “if China undertook structural changes US asking for it would be existential change for China.”

Finally, and most important for risk assets, he has dismissed prospects of a deal, accusing Beijing of wanting to “tap dance” and engage in economic dialogue so that it can keep doing what it is doing.

This, in a nutshell is what spooked risk assets and sent safe havens like TSYs and the dollar spiking, because as Navarro’s speech confirms, there will be no breakthrough in the Trump-Xi meeting either in November, or any time in the forseeable future.

Here is a quick breakdown, courtesy of tweets from Bloomberg’s Shawn Donnan‘s who is at CSIS, summarizing what just happened:

  • Overflow crowd at @CSIS for Peter Navarro this morning…
  • Navarro begins by making point that “economic security is national security” is the guiding principle of Trump administration.
  • He also invokes McKinley’s “Patriotism. Protection. And Prosperity” and the tariffs that followed from that as a great example.
  • Navarro declares that steel and aluminum tariffs have been huge success and have been repudiation of classical economists’ gloom and doom view that tariffs are bad.
  • The Section 301 tariffs have been “brilliant” and move has been “tremendously successful” at responding to Chinese “predation”.
  • Declares that Trump’s “tough talk” has resulted in “landmark restructuring” of bad trade deals (Korus and NAFTA) “in Trump time”.
  • Navarro says US economy proving Trump is right on “all metrics”…
  • “What’s going on with this grand strategy … is a fundamental restructuring back to a strong manufacturing.”
  • “The only thing that grew in the Obama administration was our national debt.”
  • “The other thing that President Obama didn’t understand is this concept that economic security is national security.”
  • Navarro is arguing now that Trump’s reversal of Obama policies re arm sales has brought defense jobs home.
  • The big jobs are in the supply chain for those arm sales, Navarro says. “That’s what USMCA was about was getting control back of that supply chain.”

Shawn Donnan

@sdonnan

We are now on to Navarro presenting this Sepetember report on the fragility of supply chains for the US defense industrial base. Report is here: https://media.defense.gov/2018/Oct/05/2002048904/-1/-1/1/ASSESSING-AND-STRENGTHENING-THE-MANUFACTURING-AND%20DEFENSE-INDUSTRIAL-BASE-AND-SUPPLY-CHAIN-RESILIENCY.PDF 

  • Argues labor gaps in US are also troubling. US now has frightening shortage of nuclear engineers. “This is frightening.”
  • Also gap in welders and pipe fitters for shipbuilding: “This is part and parcel of globalization and the globalization of our supply chains.”
  • Points to dependence on foreign sources for everything from nylon for tents to lithium for batteries. “The question is how did we get to this place?”
  • First answer is “budget sequestration” which he blames on “previous administration and Congress”.
  • Third answer is decline of defense industrial base due to forces of globalization and “unfair trade practices” of both allies and rivals like China.
  • He is now lashing out at “globalist billionaires” and “unregistered foreign agents” for conducting “shuttle diplomacy” with China to pressure Trump into some kind of deal with Xi at G20.
  • He argues that shuttle diplomacy is dangerous and would leave “stench of Goldman Sachs” on any deal Trump strikes eventually.

Shawn Donnan

@sdonnan

He argues that shuttle diplomacy is dangerous and would leave “stench of Goldman Sachs” on any deal Trump strikes eventually.

Shawn Donnan

@sdonnan

He has now put up this chart detailing China’s “economic aggression”… pic.twitter.com/3eltwbZzfQ

View image on Twitter

See Shawn Donnan’s other Tweets

  • “This is not about buying more soya beans or more coal. This is structural. If you took 25 things off that list there would still be enough things to hurt us.”
  • Now mocking Chinese for denying any wrongdoing. “It’s Alice in Wonderland.”
  • Now argues that if China stopped stealing IP it would lose its economic edge. If China undertook structural changes US asking for it would be existential change for China, he says.
  • He is now dismissing prospects of a deal. Accuses Beijing of wanting to “tap dance” and engage in economic dialogue so that it can keep doing what it is doing.
  • Now mocking Promises Obama secures from Chinese for them to stop hacking US companies.
  • Deals were possible with Korea, Canada and Mexico. “We can trust them… But when it comes to China it’s Sui generis.”
  • He has another go at Wall Street and shuttle diplomacy. Urges Goldman Sachs to take its money to Dayton, Ohio.
  • “We will strengthen America’s manufacturing and defense industrial base.”

Next up: Q&A

  • Before we move on worth pointing out that what we have seen today is an insight into internal Trump administration debate re China. With his criticisms of “Wall Street shuttle diplomacy” Navarro has been aiming at Mnuchin and Kudlow as much as Hank Paulson et al.
  • Navarro now taking on Ricardo. Argues Ricardian economics all predicated on floating exchange rates. “That’s not the world we live in… Clear eyes!”
  • Andrew Philip Hunter of CSIS is asking re exit strategy from tariffs? Navarro argues that post WW2 US got into habit of trading off economic security for national security interests as helped rebuild Europe…
  • Argues geopolitical case for TPP ignores that it would have devastated auto parts industry and others.
  • Tariffs approach will “end episodically” when better deals come.
  • Navarro dodges direct question re G20 deal with China. “You’re in good hands with Donald J Trump and Robert E Lighthizer.” Dismisses prospect of deal negotiated by “anyone else”. (IE Mnuchin)
  • The Trump culture, Navarro says, is to do things from a business perspective and to seed industries rather than subsidize. “For any of you who think tariffs don’t work .. spend like an hour on the internet” and look at anti-dumping tariffs.
  • His job at White House, Navarro says, is to help create a manufacturing sector and jobs for “Americans who work with their hands”.
  • Last question: “How do you fit these pieces together?”
  • Are there other initiatives coming? Navarro says ongoing concern will be maintaining healthy defense budget. “We are at the cusp of the next industrial revolution… points to AI, space… So a deep concern is that we spend that money wisely.”
  • If don’t create growth (and econ security), Navarro ends with, US won’t have tax base needed to fund national security…

His full speech is below:

In response to the belligerent, combative speech of the “Death by China” author, safe havens have spiked, with the dollar surging to 2018 highs, 10Y yields tumbling to session lows…

… and the Dow Jones in freefall

end

 

Not good:  GE collapses to an 8 handle.  The price is unchanged from 1995

(courtesy zerohedge)

GE Collapses To $8 Handle – Unchanged Since 1995

Following yet another downgrade, by JPMorgan this time, GE is trading back with an $8 handle for the first time since its crash in the financial crisis (and unchanged since 1995).

Specifically, JPMorgan analyst Stephen Tusa cut his price target to $6 from previous $10. The current target is the lowest among all the analysts covering the stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“While the stock is down about 70 percent from the peak of $30, this move still does not sufficiently reflect the fundamental facts,” Tusa wrote in a note.

Tusa, who has carried the equivalent of a sell rating on GE since May 2016, said he expected continued erosion in the stock, given ongoing fundamental declines in power-related businesses, high leverage and a weak free cash flow.

“We are skeptical around calls for a bottom until management resets EPS expectations that are closer to free cash flow, something we believe they haven’t done for almost 20 years.”

And GE default risk is surging…

 

We’re gonna need a bigger kitchen-sink.

END

 

Raid today as stocks fall as well as gold. Yields tumble after a hot PPI.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks, Gold, Yields Tumble After ‘Hot’ PPI

US equities are extending post-FOMC losses following a hotter-than-expected producer price print. Bond yields and bullion prices are also tumbling as the dollar holds on to its gains…

Gold and stocks are lower as bond safe-havens are bid…

US equities are quickly erasing the week’s gains…

The major indices are breaking or testing back to critical technical levels…

As the dollar extends post-Powell gains…

 

However, anxiety over the hot-flation print seems overdone as Ian Sheperdson notes – the crude collapse means this is the peak for now…

Ian Shepherdson

@IanShepherdson

The next big, sustained move in core PPI inflation will be to the downside.

end

market data/

Pay special attention to the following:  Graham is correct…the Fed just told everyone that they are on their own and that their is no Fed put

(courtesy Graham Summers)

 

Crash Time: The Fed Just Told Stocks “You’re on Your Own.”

As I keep warning, the Fed is going to hike rates until something breaks.

And by “something,” I don’t meant a garden variety correction in the markets; the Fed has made it EXPLICIT that it would only consider slowing the pace of rate hikes if the markets entered a meltdown so massive that it actually impacted consumer spending.

If you don’t believe me, consider yesterday’s Fed FOMC announcement. Following the worst month for stocks since 2008… a month in which some 89% of global assets went red of the year… the Fed didn’t even blink.

Yesterday, the Fed:

1)   Hiked rates again.

2)   Reiterated that it will hike rates THREE more times in 2019 (rather than reducing the intended number to two or even one).

3)   Made it clear that it will hike until it sees a negative impact on the REAL economy (the labor market or consumer spending).

Put simply, yesterday the Fed broadcast to stocks “you’re on your own.”

I routinely say that stocks are the last asset class to “get it.” Well they “got it” yesterday, slamming into former support. The stage is not set for a bloodbath as stocks meltdown to 2,100.

If you want a template for where we are right now, it’s “late 2007″… which means 2019 will be when the next crisis hits. 

With that in mind, I’ve not only written a bestselling book about what’s going to unfold, but I’m actively preparing clients of my weekly trading service Private Wealth Advisory with our proprietary CRASH trades to profit from the coming market melt down.

These are the EXACT same trades we made in 2008 to return triple digit gains while the rest of the investment world got taken to the cleaners.

To find out what they are, all you need to do is take out a 30-day $9.99 trial to Private Wealth Advisory.

 

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

end

Soft data, University of Michigan sentiment slides and for the first time “hope” also fades along with buying plans

The USA economy is faltering badly

(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich Sentiment Slides As Hope Fades, Buying-Plans Plunge

After sliding across the board in October, November’s flash University of Michigan Sentiment was expected to extend that decline and it did , dropping from 98.6 to 98.3 (though better than the expected 98.0). Expectations slipped lower as ‘current conditions’ flatlined.

Even with the second straight decline, sentiment remains close to the highest since 2004, and the UMich Sentiment Index remained higher thus far in 2018 than in any prior year since 2000…

But buying expectations slipped lower across Homes, Autos (lowest since Nov 2013), and major appliances…

 

Income expectations have improved (reversing October’s plunge) and consumers anticipate continued robust growth in employment, but consumers also anticipate rising inflation and higher interest rates.

Among the working age population, those between the ages of 25 and 54, the anticipated annual gain in nominal household income was 3.6% in November, the best in the past decade

While these positive and negative changes act to offset each other in the aggregate, younger consumers have benefited most from more positive income trends and older consumers are more likely to complain about the erosion of their living standards due to rising prices.

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Recount looms again in Florida after the Republican victories but suspicions galore about possible vote tampering

(courtesy zerohedge)

Recount Looms In Florida Republican Victories As

Suspicions About Possible Vote-Tampering Emerge

In an election challenge that’s conjuring up nightmarish images of hanging chads, butterfly ballots and George W Bush’s 537-vote margin of victory in the 2000 presidential election, it’s looks increasingly likely that Republicans’ narrow victories on Tuesday in Florida’s senatorial in gubernatorial races could be headed for a recount.

Scott

Florida Gov. Rick Scott defeated Democratic Senator Bill Nelson for his US Senate Seat. And Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum conceded defeat to Ron DeSantis in the state’s gubernatorial race. But as votes continue to be tallied, it’s looking increasingly likely that the Senate race could be headed for a hand recount – and the governor’s race could be headed for a machine recount, in accordance with Florida law, as CNN reported.

Sen. Bill Nelson’s re-election bid is likely headed to a hand recount given that the incumbent Democrat now trails Florida Gov. Rick Scott by 17,000 votes, within the .25% margin required for a hand recount. Nelson’s campaign aides believe he will emerge victorious once all the ballots are counted.

And on the governor’s side, Democrat Andrew Gillum – after conceding the race on Tuesday evening – has grown more supportive of a recount of late, in part because his deficit to Republican Ron DeSantis is down to 38,000 votes, within the .5% needed for a machine recount. Campaign aides, though, remain clear eyed about the the long odds that Gillum can make up that deficit.

Recounts, which have not officially been authorized in either race, put the outcome of two of the most closely watched races of 2018 on hold, with Democrats hoping for a miracle that could get both Gillum, a candidate who garnered considerable attention in his campaign against DeSantis, and Nelson, an incumbent who Democrats had thought would win his seat going into Tuesday night, over the finish line with a win.

“On Tuesday night, the Gillum for Governor campaign operated with the best information available about the number of outstanding ballots left to count. Since that time, it has become clear there are many more uncounted ballots than was originally reported,” Gillum’s communications director Johanna Cervone said in a statement. “Mayor Gillum started his campaign for the people, and we are committed to ensuring every single vote in Florida is counted.”

At no point in the statement, though, did Gillum’s campaign withdraw the concession and sources close to the mayor highlight that his outlook hasn’t changed since his Tuesday night speech. It it is important to Gillum, these sources said, that his supporters know they are fighting for every vote.

“We want every vote counted, we believe that there are still votes out there for Mayor Gillum and we want to make sure his supporters know we are fighting for every vote,” one source said.

Gillum and DeSantis have not talked since election night, the source added. Gillum told supporters on Tuesday that he talked to DeSantis and “congratulated him on what we expect will be him as the next governor of the great state of Florida.”

In some parts of the state, controversies surrounding the still-unfinished vote tallies are beginning to draw national attention, specifically in Broward County and Palm Beach County, where elections officials were still counting votes on Thursday, according to the Sun Sentinel.Because of questions surrounding why more than 24,000 people voted for governor, but not for Senator, in Broward, recounts could be coming in both of those races, as well as the race for state Agriculture Commissioner.

But that discrepancy isn’t the only evidence that something might be amiss in Broward County. On Twitter, Marc Caputo pointed out that a teacher at a local elementary school reportedly found a box marked provisional ballots that was left behind from election day. She hasn’t opened it for fear of accidentally tampering with the vote totals.

Marc Caputo

@MarcACaputo

In Broward County, Miramar Elementary School teacher Lakeisha Sorey came across a box labeled “Provisional ballots” left behind at the school from Election Day & she’s concerned it might have votes. She didn’t look in the box because she didn’t want to tamper with it

Marc Caputo

@MarcACaputo

Sorey said she spotted the box before leaving school about 4 p.m. She spoke to her principal who advised her not to touch it. She also spoke later to a state rep who referred her to me

And while some might be tempted to point the finger at Republicans, as Caputo points out, Broward County is heavily Democratic.

Marc Caputo

@MarcACaputo

I know it’s tempting for Democrats to blame Republican voter suppression here, but Broward County is HEAVILY Democratic and the elections supervisor is a Democrat

Marc Caputo

@MarcACaputo

In Broward County, Miramar Elementary School teacher Lakeisha Sorey came across a box labeled “Provisional ballots” left behind at the school from Election Day & she’s concerned it might have votes. She didn’t look in the box because she didn’t want to tamper with it

View image on Twitter

Some critics said this is a sign of incompetence and corruption.

Yossi Gestetner

@YossiGestetner

This is INCOMPETENCE AND CORRUPTION: First for “forgetting” it there. Second, who knows how many fake ballots were stuffed in there after the vote? A judge should rule against using any of it.

Marc Caputo

@MarcACaputo

I

This isn’t the first time that questions have been raised about the legitimacy of provisional and mail-in ballot counts in Broward County.

Marco Rubio

@marcorubio

What’s happening in #BrowardCounty happened just last August,albeit on a smaller scale.

9000 votes arrived in mail just before 7pm Election Day. Few days later incumbent school board member avoids runoff against @rpetty & a judge won by just 400 votes https://cbsloc.al/2C9CJIl#.W-S7sQXapoA.twitter 

Korn, Usan Declared Winners In Broward Tight Races

Broward election workers spent part of their Labor Day recounting some votes from last week’s primary and two close races were officially decided.

miami.cbslocal.com

Whatever the story behind these ballots might be, suspicion is turning toward Broward County Elections Supervisor Brenda Snipes, who was appointed by former Gov. Jeb Bush in 2003 after her predecessor was removed following the Bush v. Gore recount fiasco.

Marc Caputo

@MarcACaputo

There’s an increased level of chatter in Republican circles for removing Broward County Supervisor of Elections Brenda Snipes (her predecessor was removed in 2003 by Gov. Jeb Bush who appointed Snipes). But Scott likely won’t do that now that there’s a recount. But afterward?

Some question why Snipes has been allowed to remain in her position after showing a willingness to destroy ballots. A state judge ruled as much back in May, which found that Snipes oversaw an effort to destroy ballots to advantage Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the Democratic Primary, as the Sun Sentinel  reported.

Lisa Tarpin@Lisa77720

WHY was Snipes allowed to stay in that position after caught stuffing ballot boxes? I believe a judge agreed.

Ronna McDaniel

@GOPChairwoman

#Broward Elections Supervisor Brenda Snipes is no stranger to destroying ballots and violating Florida election laws.

Snipes has shown herself to be trouble. Voters in Florida should be paying attention!

Florida isn’t the only race where defeated Democrats are gearing up for a recount challenge. In Georgia, Stacy Abrams, who would become the state’s first female African-American Governor if she wins, has refused to concede as votes continue to be counted.And she has good reason. Because if Kemp, who currently has 50.3% of the vote, sees his lead erode below 50%, the contest will automatically go to a runoff to be held on Dec. 4 – even if he ends up with more votes.

What was that again about Republicans suppressing votes?

end

Looks like we have voter fraud in both Arizona and Florida..no who would have guessed

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Warns: Dems Are Sending “Their Best Election-Stealing Lawyer” To Florida

Is Florida gearing up for Bush vs. Gore redux?

It’s starting to look that way.

As Fox News reports, lawyers are arriving in Democratic strongholds in Florida as the state prepares for a recount in Broward County, the epicenter of the vote-counting controversy that led to Bush vs. Gore, and Palm Beach County. Both are Democratic strongholds that have been extremely slow to deliver final ballot totals for Tuesday’s election.

Elias

To try and push for a hand recount, defeated incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson has hired Democratic attorney Marc Elias of law firm Perkins Coie to help plead his case and point out suspicious “inconsistencies” with the vote count in Broward, where more than 20,000 voters voted in down-ballot races but left out their votes for governor’s race, in which Nelson’s Democratic ally, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, has already conceded to Republican Ron DeSantis.

The controversy has already attracted the attention of President Trump, who in a series of tweets Friday afternoon warned that Democrats were dispatching attorneys, including their best “election stealing lawyer,” to try and rig the vote after earlier hinting that he might authorize a federal investigation

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

You mean they are just now finding votes in Florida and Georgia – but the Election was on Tuesday? Let’s blame the Russians and demand an immediate apology from President Putin!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

As soon as Democrats sent their best Election stealing lawyer, Marc Elias, to Broward County they miraculously started finding Democrat votes. Don’t worry, Florida – I am sending much better lawyers to expose the FRAUD!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Rick Scott was up by 50,000+ votes on Election Day, now they “found” many votes and he is only up 15,000 votes. “The Broward Effect.” How come they never find Republican votes?

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Mayor Gillum conceded on Election Day and now Broward County has put him “back into play.” Bill Nelson conceded Election – now he’s back in play!? This is an embarrassment to our Country and to Democracy!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

In the 2016 Election I was winning by so much in Florida that Broward County, which was very late with vote tabulation and probably getting ready to do a “number,” couldn’t do it because not enough people live in Broward for them to falsify a victory!

Trump even praised his former political rival, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, for helping expose the possible corruption happening in Broward County, where boxes of what appear to be uncounted provisional ballots have been discovered at polling stations.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Thank you @marcorubio for helping to expose the potential corruption going on with respect to Election Theft in Broward and Palm Beach Counties. The WORLD is now watching closely!

Rubio has highlighted a range of suspicious developments in Broward, including what appeared to be a mystery delivery of ballots. The senator has also criticized local officials for their molasses-like process of counting ballots in Florida’s senate race.

Meanwhile, in a press conference held Thursday evening, Scott, who is also the outgoing governor, warned of “rampant fraud,” and filed lawsuits against the top election officials in two heavily Democratic counties as they continue to report new votes.

Rubio pointed out in a tweet on Friday that Broward is violating state laws about the tallying and submission of vote totals from mail-in ballots.

Marco Rubio

@marcorubio

Under #Florida law county must upload by 7 p.m. day BEFORE election ALL early votes canvassed & tabulated by end of early voting & report results within 30 minutes of polls close

60 hours after that deadline only 1 of 67 counties is still counting early votes, #BrowardCounty

Rubio also pointed out that early voting in Broward County had ended “108 hours ago”, and that the county wouldn’t disclose “how many ballots are left.”

Last night, Scott specifically called out elections supervisors in both counties, Brenda Snipes in Broward and Susan Bucher in Palm Beach.

“Late Tuesday night, our win was projected to be around 57,000 votes,” Scott told reporters. “By Wednesday morning, that lead dropped to 38,000. By Wednesday evening, it was around 30,000. This morning, it was around 21,000. Now, it is 15,000.”

He continued: “On election night, Broward County said there were 634,000 votes cast. At 1 a.m. today, there were 695,700 ballots cast on election day. At 2:30 p.m. today, the number was up to 707,223 ballots cast on Election Day. And we just learned, that the number has increased to 712,840 ballots cast on Election Day. In Palm Beach County, there are 15,000 new votes found since election night.”

Snipes’ behavior looks particularly suspect, considering that she has expressed a “personal animus” toward Gov. Scott? And also has a record of illegal and unethical behavior, including the illegal destruction of ballots.

Marco Rubio

@marcorubio

How can anyone have confidence that the #BrowardCounty election supervisor will be fair when last night she made clear her personal animus toward Gov. Scott & towards the states top law enforcement agency when she claimed he “owns” the #Florida Department of Law Enforcement?

Alex Harris

@harrisalexc

“He owns the FDLE,” Snipes said. Wouldn’t answer more questions on the lawsuit/investigation. “I’m not prepared to have that conversation right now.” https://twitter.com/stevebousquet/status/1060706130924654593 

Marco Rubio

@marcorubio

Not very comforting to #Florida voters that #BrowardCounty supervisor,in whose hands may rest outcome of Senate & cabinet race has in the past:
1. Illegally destroyed ballots
2. Secretly opened mail ballots
3. Sent voters too many ballot pages
4. Left const question off ballot

Of course, Florida isn’t the only state where Democratic candidates are gaining ground in the vote tallies days after the election ended. In Arizona, Democrat Kirsten Sinema is now leading Republican Martha McSally in that state’s senate race, which has yet to be officially called.

In a tweet sent late Friday afternoon, Trump cryptically warned of new evidence of election tampering in Arizona when he tweeted that “signatures don’t match” on some of the ballots.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Just out — in Arizona, SIGNATURES DON’T MATCH. Electoral corruption – Call for a new Election? We must protect our Democracy!

In Georgia, Democrat Stacey Abrams is gaining on Republican Brian Kemp in the governor’s race. Whatever the outcome, it’s increasingly looking like the final outcomes of some of these races won’t be known for some time.

END

 

SWAMP STORIES

Here is the list of people who might replace Sessions on a permanent basis.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Christie, Acosta And Bondi Top Trump’s List To Replace

Sessions

As acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker’s refusal to recuse himself from overseeing the Mueller probe rattles Democrats and even Kellyanne Conway’s husband – all of whom worry that President Trump may finally have found a way to force an ending to the interminable investigation – the shortlist for Jeff Sessions’ replacement is growing longer.

According to multiplemedia reports, Trump is considering no fewer than seven people for the job: Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, Labor Secretary Alex (not Jim) Acosta, HHS Secretary Alex Azar, US Appeals Court Judge Edith Jones and former Attorney General William Barr, who held the job under President George W Bush. 

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham has also been rumored as a top pick, and is far and away the leading candidate on online betting markets, though his name has been largely absent from media reports. 

Acosta

Alex Acosta

To that list, some would add Whitaker, who has remained a favorite to remain in the job permanently despite being a politically contentious pick. But according to Bloomberg, members of the GOP’s senate leadership are pushing for Acosta, seeing him as more likely to win confirmation given that he has already been vetted and has a more compelling life story. Acosta, the son of Cuban refugees, went to Harvard for undergrad and law school before clerking for the Supreme Court.

Causing no end of frustration for Democratic leaders, Whitaker has so far refused to recuse himself from overseeing the Mueller probe, despite his public criticism of Mueller’s probe as illegal and a “witch hunt.” And sources close to Whitaker say he has no intention of doing so  (and why would he, considering that would almost certainly sink any chance he has of staying in the job). However, Whitaker has reportedly told friends that he would consult Justice Department ethics officials if a specific conflict arose.

Bondi

Pam Bondi

Anyone who takes the reins of the Mueller probe will have the option of dismissing an agreement between Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein and Mueller that gave Mueller a long leash, which he has used to expand the investigation far beyond its original scope of examining links between the Trump Campaign and the Russian government. Democratic leaders, including Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, have said that the timing of Sessions’ firing is “suspicious” given that Democrats are expected to leverage their subpoena power to open even more investigations into Trump on everything from his personal finances, to his Russia ties. Pelosi and Schumer have demanded that Congress take immediate action to protect Mueller.

Nancy Pelosi

@NancyPelosi

It is impossible to read Attorney General Sessions’ firing as anything other than another blatant attempt by @realDonaldTrump to undermine & end Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation.

Nancy Pelosi

@NancyPelosi

It is impossible to read Attorney General Sessions’ firing as anything other than another blatant attempt by @realDonaldTrump to undermine & end Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation.

Nancy Pelosi

@NancyPelosi

Given his record of threats to undermine & weaken the Russia investigation, Matthew Whitaker should recuse himself from any involvement in Mueller’s investigation. Congress must take immediate action to protect the rule of law and integrity of the investigation. #FollowTheFacts

Even one Republican Senator said she’s “worried” that Mueller won’t be allowed to finish his work.

Sen. Susan Collins

@SenatorCollins

It is imperative that the Administration not impede the Mueller investigation. I’m concerned Rod Rosenstein will no longer be overseeing the probe. Special Counsel Mueller must be allowed to complete his work without interference—regardless of who is AG.

One Bloomberg source questioned whether Christie and Bondi, both politically divisive figures, could win Senate confirmation.

But the whims of any future AG pick may not be the biggest threat to the Mueller probe. A court challenge to Mueller’s authority has taken on new significance in light of recent events, according to Reuters.

A DOJ attorney on Thursday spelled out the circumstances under which Special Counsel Robert Mueller could be fired in a court case that took on new significance this week following Sessions’ ouster. After refusing to comply with a Mueller grand jury subpoena back in May, Roger Stone associate Andrew Miller filed a court challenge alleging that Mueller’s authority was illegitimate because he was illegally appointed. That case is being argued on Mueller’s behalf by Deputy Solicitor General Michael Dreeben.

Here’s more from Reuters.

In May, Andrew Miller, who is an associate of long-time Trump adviser Roger Stone, refused to comply with a grand jury subpoena from Mueller. Miller was held in civil contempt. He filed a legal challenge, asserting Mueller has no authority to compel his testimony or to oversee the probe because he was illegally appointed.

Dreeben told a three-judge appeals panel on Thursday that there are checks and balances on Mueller’s activities that make his appointment lawful. One of these is that he could be fired by Whitaker, now acting attorney general, if Whitaker revoked department regulations governing Mueller’s appointment to make him fireable without cause.

The special counsel is not “off in a free-floating environment,” Dreeben said in arguments before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit that attempted to show Mueller’s power is circumscribed by the law.

It’s unclear when a ruling might be handed down in that case. But, until it is resolved, lawmakers and President Trump will be eagerly watching to see if the court might simply eliminate one of the president’s most enduring headaches without the president having to do a thing – or expend any of the precious political capital that, in an era of divided government, will be in increasingly short supply.

end
This will go nowhere as:
1.Trump used his own money
2. And it is legal to pay off someone so they will shut up/
(courtesy zerohedge)

Micheal Cohen Gives Prosecutors “Evidence” Implicating Trump In Campaign Finance Law

Violations

It has been quiet, too quiet, for the almost three months since President Trump’s former personal attorney Michael Cohen flipped, pleading guilty to campaign finance violations and other charges, saying he made payments to influence the 2016 election at the direction of a candidate for federal office, potentially delivering a legal blow to the president.

Lanny Davis@LannyDavis

Today he stood up and testified under oath that Donald Trump directed him to commit a crime by making payments to two women for the principal purpose of influencing an election. If those payments were a crime for Michael Cohen, then why wouldn’t they be a crime for Donald Trump?

As we detailed at the time, Cohen, 51, who agreed to a plea bargain with federal prosecutors earlier in the day, pleaded guilty to eight counts total, including five counts of tax evasion and one count of making a false statement to a financial institution. He also pleaded guilty to one count of making an excessive campaign contribution on Oct. 27, 2016, which is the same date Cohen finalized a payment to adult-film star Stormy Daniels as part of a nondisclosure agreement over an affair Daniels alleges she had with Trump.

The most damaging statement by Michael Cohen was made when, acknowledging the charges against him, Cohen said he was directed to violate campaign law at the direction of an unnamed candidate for federal office, whom he did not name.

Also, as a reminder, Cohen had secretly recorded one conversation that sounded quite damning at the time – despite it’s inaudible sections…

“Um, I need to open up a company for the transfer of all of that info regarding our friend, David, you know, so that—I’m going to do that right away,” said Mr. Cohen, according to a copy of the audio file.

As Mr. Cohen explained his plans, Mr. Trump spoke over him: “So, what are we gonna pay…One-fifty?” Mr. Trump asked. Mr. Cohen paused and replied, “Yes.”

Mr. Cohen said he would be getting “all the stuff,” meaning the other files on Mr. Trump he had been seeking. They discussed the uncertainty about what might become of the files if Mr. Pecker no longer ran American Media. “Yeah, I was thinking about that,” Mr. Trump said. “Maybe he gets hit by a truck.”

In an Oct. 23 interview with the Journal, Mr. Trump declined to address whether he had ever discussed the payments with Mr. Cohen during the campaign.

“Nobody cares about that,” he said. He described Mr. Cohen as a “public-relations person” who “represented me on very small things.”

But it appears some ‘cared’ as  The Wall Street Journal rejuvenates those headlines this morning, reporting that Mr. Trump intervened directly to suppress stories about his alleged sexual encounters with women, according to interviews with three dozen people who have direct knowledge of the events or who have been briefed on them, as well as court papers, corporate records and other documents.

However, as it appears Cohen has offered more details of Trump’s involvement, WSJ notes that taken together, the accounts refute a two-year pattern of denials by Mr. Trump, his legal team and his advisers that he was involved in payoffs to Ms. McDougal and a former adult-film star. They also raise the possibility that the president of the United States violated federal campaign-finance laws.

Very specifically, WSJ’s story brings up two new aspects in the case:

“Previously unreported instances” of Trump’s direct involvement in payoffs…

The Trump Tower meeting and its aftermath are among several previously unreported instances in which Mr. Trump intervened directly to suppress stories about his alleged sexual encounters with women, according to interviews with three dozen people who have direct knowledge of the events or who have been briefed on them, as well as court papers, corporate records and other documents.

And more seriously, the previously ‘unnamed’ member of the campaign that Cohen had originally discussed, is confirmed as President Trump by sources…

Mr. Cohen, who left the Trump Organization to serve as the president’s personal attorney in early 2017, and other aides denied Mr. Trump played any role in the two hush-money deals when they were first reported in the Journal.

Federal prosecutors in Manhattan came to believe otherwise. In August, they outlined Mr. Trump’s role -without specifically naming him – in a roughly 80-page draft federal indictment they had been preparing to file against Mr. Cohen.

When Mr. Cohen pleaded guilty that month to campaign-finance violations, prosecutors filed a 22-page charging document asserting that Mr. Cohen “coordinated with one or more members of the campaign, including through meetings and phone calls, about the fact, nature, and timing of the payments.”

The unnamed campaign member or members referred to Mr. Trump, according to people familiar with the document.

However, despite the excited headlines of the Journal’s story, according to Richard Hasen, a law professor at University of California, Irvine, who specializes in election law, Mr. Trump’s involvement in the payments, by itself, wouldn’t mean he is guilty of federal crimes.

A criminal conviction would require proof Mr. Trump willfully skirted legal prohibitions on contributions from companies or from individuals in excess of $2,700, he said.

When the Justice Department accused John Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina, of using illegal campaign contributions to conceal an affair during his 2008 presidential run, he argued the money was meant to hide his mistress from his wife, not to influence the election.

A jury acquitted him of one charge and deadlocked on the rest.

On Thursday, the White House referred questions about Mr. Trump’s involvement in the hush deals to the president’s outside counsel Jay Sekulow, who declined to comment.

end

 

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

Like Comey, Dems hated Sessions until DJT removed him.  Now, Sessions is a Dem cause celebre.
 
The Left Is Organizing “Response Events” In 900 U.S. Cities on Thursday to Protest the Firing of Jeff Sessions – It is quite funny that the left is getting so bent out of shape regarding the firing of an Attorney General that many of them absolutely hated… No, we are not a nation of laws… The only reason the left is using this sort of rhetoric is because they are desperate to take down Trump…
 
Thousands in NYC Protest Trump Firing of Sessions
 
MSNBC’s Maddow Organizing Street Marches to Protest Sessions Firing
 
Rubio Sounds the Alarm: Broward County Election Officials Trying to Steal Election – Produce Thousands of Ballots 43 Hrs after Polls Closed    https://t.co/mqcTz2OhR1
 
FLORIDA VOTER Films Broward County Election Officials Transferring Ballots in Rented Truck on Election Night!       https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/holy-crap-florida-voter-discovers-broward-county-election-officials-transferring-ballots-in-rented-truck-on-election-night/
 
[Senator] @marcorubio: Now democrat lawyers are descending on Florida. They have been very clear they aren’t here to make sure every vote is counted. They are here to change the results of election; & Broward is where they plan to do it.
    Apparently #BrowardCounty elections left behind a box labeled “Provisional Ballots” at a local elementary school that served as a polling place. Just let that sink in for a moment. https://twitter.com/marcacaputo/status/1060654559612289024
     Florida law requires counties report early voting & vote-by-mail within 30 minutes after polls close. 43 hours after polls closed 2 Democrat strongholds #BrowardCounty & #PalmBeachCounty are still counting & refusing to disclose how many ballots they have left to count
    Broward election supervisors ongoing violation of #Florida law requiring timely reporting isn’t just annoying incompetence. It has opened the door for lawyers to come here & try to steal a seat in the U.S. Senate & Florida Cabinet
    
@tgiovanetti: It is literally illegal for Broward County to still be adding to the vote total right now. Yet they are.
 
@RealSaavedra: Brenda Snipes is in charge of Broward County elections. In 2016, a judge ruled that she “violated state & federal laws by destroying ballots from a 2016 Congressional race too soon — and while the ballots were the subject of a lawsuit against the office”
 
Tampa Bay Times’ @stevebousquet: [Governor] Rick Scott accuses liberals in Broward of “trying to steal this election” from him, andorders FDLE to launch an investigation of Brenda Snipes
 
AP: Washington police investigating a protest outside the home of Fox News host Tucker Carlson as a possible hate crime.https://t.co/RL2NWkSssX
 
@Barnes_Law: What the House data really shows: Paul Ryan cost the GOP the House. His strategy left out Trumpist blue collar voters for a useless appeal to suburbanites who rejected Ryanite Republicans.
    2020, where a swing of a mere dozen or so seats gives GOP back the House, sees this landscape:
Dems in GOP lean districts: 30+; GOP in Dem lean districts: 2

 

I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON MONDAY IF ALL GOES WELL
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: