NOV 16/GOLD UP BY $8.00 TO $1222.65/SILVER IS UP 9 CENTS TO $14.40/TURMOIL IN THE UK AS MANY CABINET MINISTERS SUBMIT THEIR RESIGNATIONS/MANY SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1222.65 UP  $8.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.40 UP 9 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1221.50

 

silver: $14.42

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  205  for 20500 OZ  (0.6376 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

15,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1407 for 7,035,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $5661: down  $93

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $5638  down 130 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY  A SMALL 492 CONTRACTS FROM 224,372 UP TO  224,864  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S STRONG 21 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  951 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 75 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1026 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1026 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1026 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.13 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 21 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 7,050,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 34,073 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 34,073 CONTRACTS) OR 170.37 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2839 CONTRACTS OR 14.19 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  170.37 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 24/28% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,596.45    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 492 DESPITE THE STRONG 21 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1026 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 1518 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1026 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 492 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THUS  STRONG  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 21 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.31 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH  IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.05 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW  7.050 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.059 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 15,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT 7.050 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 3225 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 532,702 DESPITE THE STRONG GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A RISE IN PRICE OF $5.35).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5938 CONTRACTS:

 

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5938 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 532,702. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED RISE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2718 CONTRACTS:  3225 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5938 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 2713 CONTRACTS OR 271,300 OZ = 8.43 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A  RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $5.35.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7875 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 92,573 CONTRACTS OR 9,257,300 OZ OR 287.94 TONNES (12 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7714 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 287.94 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 287.94/2550 x 100% TONNES =  11.29% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,494.75  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3225 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($5.35) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5938 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5938 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN GOOD RISE OF 2713 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5938 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3225 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 8.33 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $5.35 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX????.

 

 

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: / 

 

A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   759.68 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 759.68 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY

 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY 492 CONTRACTS from 224.372 UP TO 224,864  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

951 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 75 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1026 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 492 CONTRACTS TO THE 1026 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD  NET GAIN OF 1518 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.59 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW 7.050 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 21 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 1026 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.94POINTS OR 0.41% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 30.19 POINTS OR 0.31% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 123.28 OR 0.57%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.04%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9505 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil UP to 57.18 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.90 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9505AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9388: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

The chief whip cancels his meeting this morning as the EU hints at a revision to the Brexit.  The pound temporarily rises. Still many defections and this could present huge turmoil in EU/Pound trading

( zerohedge)

ii)The truth behind the whole Brexit mess by our resident expert on this, Tom Luongo

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Another sign that the global economy is slowing dramatically:  October EU data continues to show no relife.

( zerohedge)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

the sad case of Canada’s oil crisis.  Their oil is basically shut in and that is why they are getting 15 dollars per barrel

( Zaremba/Oil Price.com

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Ronan Manly states that there is no good reason for the Bank of England to reject Venezuela’s request for its gold back.  Countries are getting wind that all of the Bank of England’s gold has been leased/compromised and thus they will also request repatriation of their gold
(Ronan Manly/GATA)

ii)Brandon White of BMG writes  gold remonetization is much closer than everybody realizes.  He looks at the fact that many central banks are buying gold.(courtesy BMG/White/GATA)

iii)Just look at the damage that the Fed and the bullion banks have done to decimate the mining field.  Now the majority of all silver miners have all in sustaining costs that are significantly higher than the spot silver price.
a great report…
( Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco report)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

i)The dollar and the bond yields tumble on Fed Vice Chairman Clarida warning that global growth is slowing. We have been highlighting this to you for the past few years. Clarida contradicts Powell by saying that they are close to the neutral rate..whatever that means.

( zerohedge)

ii)A joke:  after rising on hopes of a Chinese deal, it reversed course as humans realized the Trump-China comments meant nothing

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)Market data/

Another indicator showing that USA economy is slowing down dramatically:  this time auto assemblies tumble hurting the industrial production number.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)This is interesting:  PG and E was heading higher in morning trading despite by downgraded by Moody’s.

Why? there is a report that PG and E will not go bankrupt. However they admit that they might be responsible for the “campfire” blaze that is wrecking havoc in Northern California.

( zerohedge)

b)Dramatic shots of an entire town destroyed..P G and E states that down lines was probably the cause of the start of the “campfire” destruction.

(zerohedge)

c)Quite a story:  The new Goldman CEO is outraged by the 1MDB scandal.  How could this honest Goldman Sachs company enter into criminal arrangements that hurt a nation terribly.

( reuters/Saxena)

d)This  is interesting:  The Wall Street Journal agrees with Trump that the Fed should stop hiking because of the damage that it is doing

( zerohedge/Wall Street Journal)

e)Blain explains GE’s credit meltdown is going to be a huge problem for markets(Bill Blain)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Jim Acosta’s White House credentials restored temporarily after a judge’s ruling

( zerohedge)

b)OH!! THIS IS GOOD. Judge Sullivan has ordered Hillary to answer additional questions under oath about her private email server.  This is an action brought on by judicial watch

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3225 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 532,702 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.35 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5938 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  5938 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5938 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  2713 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5938 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE 3225 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2713 contracts OR 271,300 OZ OR 8.43 TONNES.

 

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 6 notices standing so we LOST 0 contracts. We had 0 notices served YESTERDAY so we gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz of gold will stand for gold at the comex and these guys refused to morphed into London based forwards as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus for the trouble.

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 19,414 contracts  to 300,840 contracts.  January saw a FALL TO 3797 FOR A LOSS OF 51 CONTRACTS.  February gained 6772 contracts to stand at 156,095 contracts.

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

ON NOV 16 WE HAD 269,029 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS COMPARED TO THIS YEAR: 302,212.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

AS A REMINDER WE HAVE ONLY 4.000 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD READY TO SERVE OUR DEC LONGS.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR NIL OZ.

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI rose BY 492 CONTRACTS FROM 224,373 UP TO 224,864 (AND CLOSER THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GOOD  OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 21 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED 1026 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 951 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 75 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1026.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1518 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  492 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1026 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   1518 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS VERY STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 21 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 6 notices  standing for a gain of 3 contacts.  We had 0 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 3 contracts or an additional 15,000 oz will  stand for delivery as these longs refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as not accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts. 

 

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we LOST 4670 contracts DOWN to 132,193.  January saw a GAIN of 19 contracts up to 1140 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 4830 contracts  up to 70,016

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

ON NOV 16. 2017 WE HAD STILL  106,594 OPEN  INTEREST CONTRACTS LEFT TO BE SERVED UPON AND THIS COMPARES TO TODAY: 133,003 CONTRACTS

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000 OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 148,883 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  285,402  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 16-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
6 contracts
(600 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
205 notices
20500 OZ
0.6376 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposits
total customer deposits nil oz
we had 0  adjustments..

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (205) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (6 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 21,100 OZ OR 0.6562 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (205 x 100 oz)  + {6)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0x 100 oz )which equals 21100 oz standing OR 0.6562 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD DID RETURN AS THE DEALERS QUEUE JUMPING OBTAINING GOLD AS THEY TRY AND PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.001 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.6562 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  138,146.468 oz or   4.001 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,023,872.749 oz 249.57 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 16, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 NILoz

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
601,608.580
oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
601,125.088
oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
3
CONTRACT(S)
15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
(15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1407 contracts

(7,035,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

i) into Brinks:  601,608.580 oz

total dealer deposits: 601,608.580 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.67% of all official comex silver. (151.7 million/293.9 million)

ii)Into  everybody CNT:  601,125.088 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  601,125.088 oz

we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: NIL oz

 

we had 0 adjustment

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  80.670 million

total dealer + customer silver:  294.222  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1407 x 5,000 oz = 7,035,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (6) and the number of notices served upon today (3 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 1407(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 6) -number of notices served upon today (3)x 5000 oz equals 7,050,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver. We GAINED 3 contracts or an additional 15,000 OZ will  stand at the comex as these longs refused to accept a London based forwards as well as negating the right to receive a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 44,310CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 93,632 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 93,632 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 468 million OZ  66.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -5.16% (NOV 16/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.84% to NAV (NOV 16/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -5.16%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.32/TRADING 11.76/DISCOUNT 4.66

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.60″ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONNES

NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.80 A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.29 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.06 TONNES

NOV 1/: 2 TRANSACTIONS:WITH GOLD UP $23.85,A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES OF GOLD TO PAY FOR FEES, INSURANCE AND STORAGE: INVENTORY AT THE GLD RESTS AT 754.06 TONNES THEN A DEPOSIT OF 6.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.82

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 16.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 759.68 tonnes

*IN LAST 498 TRADING DAYS: 175.47 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 398 TRADING DAYS: A NET 15.47 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

NOV 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 281,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.

NOV 7: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.320 MILLION OZ/

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN  18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

 

 

NOV 16/2018:

 

Inventory 324.456 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

SMALL JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY./

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.40/ and libor 6 month duration 2.86

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .46

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.67%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.12

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.45

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Rises As Stocks Fall On Valuation Concerns, Italy and Brexit Risks

Key Gold and Precious Metals News, Commentary and Charts This Week

Gold and silver have eked out slight gains this week as stock markets came under pressure due to concerns about tech and oil sector valuations, Italian banks and political and financial turmoil due to Brexit.

Gold is 0.65% higher for the week in dollars and has seen greater gains in euro (+0.8%) and the pound (+2.17%). The latter has fallen due to political turmoil in the UK and Brexit concerns.

Weekly relative performance (Finviz.com)

The pound tumbled after UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned. He was the highest-profile of several departures yesterday.

Brexit backer Jacob Rees-Mogg and Prime Minster contender later joined calls for a vote of no confidence in PM Theresa May. The turmoil throws into doubt her ability to secure the UK Parliament’s support for her exit plan – and even to survive as leader.

Bookies have made the left wing Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn the favourite to take over from Mrs May – who they give 4/5 to be out before the end of 2018. This will further pressure the pound and should see gold reach new record highs in sterling terms in the months.

Stocks in the U.S., Europe and Asia are lower for the week with U.S. stocks being particularly weak. The S&P, DJIA and Nasdaq are down 2.1%, 3% and 2.8% respectively.

Oil prices have bounced a bit higher but have collapsed nearly 12% (WTI) so far in November which suggests there may be concerns about oil demand and economic growth in the coming months.

It was an important week for GoldCore as we launched the first institutional-grade gold vault in Ireland. Irish, UK and international investors can for the first time store gold bullion bars and coins in professionally managed, secure, institutional grade vaults in Dublin.

The announcement was widely picked up with ReutersIrish TimesCNBC, Bloomberg (terminal) and others covering it and we covered it in our subsequently released Goldnomics video update.

Here is how Bloomberg covered the story:

GoldCore Offers Dublin Gold Storage as Brexit Concerns Mount

By Rupert Rowling (Bloomberg) —

Gold brokerage GoldCore has opened an institutional-grade vault near Dublin as clients are expected to move their holdings from London to other jurisdictions as Brexit concerns mount, it said in a statement.

  • Storage is managed in collaboration with Loomis International.
  • Since the vault’s soft launch on Oct. 15, ~30% of demand has come from GoldCore’s customers moving metal from London, CEO Stephen Flood said.
  • “We expect the amount of gold stored by our clients in Dublin to exceed that of London sometime in 2019, as U.K. and Irish clients seek to spread their holdings across jurisdictions,” Flood said.

o    Storage in Dublin has already surpassed Singapore and Hong Kong, and may usurp London as the No. 2 location, behind Zurich.

All in all another interesting week in the precious metal and wider markets as gold and silver slowly reassert themselves as hedging assets. They are protecting investors with exposure to stocks and indeed to currencies as was seen in gold’s gains in British pounds this week.

It represents an opportune time to rebalance portfolios and diversify out of overvalued assets and into undervalued safe haven gold.

From all the GoldCore team – have a great weekend!

 

Charts and Tables this Week

Gold in GBP – 24 Hours (GoldCore)

 


Source: Bloomberg


Gold to Silver Ratio via ZeroHedge.com

 

DJIA and Oil – 1999 to Today (Source: Marketwatch)

 

Market Updates and Key News this Week

Pound Falls 2.5% Against Gold as UK Government in Turmoil Over Brexit

Investors Set To Store Gold In Dublin For First Time As Brexit Risks Grow

GoldCore Capitalising On Brexit With Dublin Gold Vault (Reuters)

Investors Start Buying Gold ETFs In October In Bullish Shift

Pound Falls Most Since 2017 as May’s Brexit Divorce Plan Rocked

Silver Cheapest To Gold In 25 Years – Watch China

American Elections Farce as Politicians Ignore the Looming $21.7 and 100 Trillion Debt Crisis

 

Listen on iTunes, Blubrry  & SoundCloud  or watch on YouTube above

 

Today’s News and Commentary

 

PRECIOUS-Gold nears one-week high on Brexit deal logjam (Reuters.com)

Gold prices edge higher amid Brexit turmoil (Reuters.com)

Gold steady, in a range above $1210 (FXStreet.com)

Gold bugs might find hope in this chart (MarketWatch.com)

Fed plans major review of how it pursues inflation, employment goals (Reuters.com)

Italy gets support from Germany over budget spending plan (CNBC.com)

 

Tudor Jones says we’re in a global debt bubble and headed for some ‘scary moments’ (CNBC.com)

A disorderly Brexit will harm ‘unstable’ Italy, says former PM Letta (CNBC.com)

Bank of England’s withholding Venezuela’s gold may signal shortage in London (GoldSeek.com)

Italian Yields Spike After Salvini Advisor Warns Italy Will Exit Eurozone If League Wins Majority (Zenith.news)

Mortgage Rates May Hit 6% Sooner – What Will that Do to Housing Bubble 2? (WolfStreet.com)

Learn More and Watch Direct Access Gold Video Here

DAG Video Still Play V2

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

15 Nov: USD 1,210.60, GBP 948.26 & EUR 1,072.71 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 1,201.45, GBP 927.04 & EUR 1,066.05 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 1,197.55, GBP 928.70 & EUR 1,066.18 per ounce
12 Nov: USD 1,207.05, GBP 940.05 & EUR 1,072.34 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 1,219.05, GBP 936.96 & EUR 1,075.81 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 1,223.45, GBP 932.02 & EUR 1,071.01 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

15 Nov: USD 14.13, GBP 11.02 & EUR 12.49 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 13.97, GBP 10.80 & EUR 12.39 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 14.02, GBP 10.85 & EUR 12.46 per ounce
12 Nov: USD 14.16, GBP 11.00 & EUR 12.57 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 14.34, GBP 11.01 & EUR 12.63 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 14.49, GBP 11.06 & EUR 12.70 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Pound Falls 2.5% Against Gold as UK Government in Turmoil Over Brexit
– GoldCore Capitalising On Brexit With Dublin Gold Vault
– Store Gold In The Safest Vaults In Ireland
– Investors Set To Store Gold In Dublin Due To Brexit Risks
– Investors Start Buying Gold ETFs In October In Bullish Shift
– As Brexit Looms and Stocks Plunge In October – Now May Be The Time to Invest in Gold
– AMERICAN ELECTIONS FARCE AS POLITICIANS IGNORE THE LOOMING $121.7 TRILLION DEBT CRISIS
– Gold ETFs See Strong Demand In Volatile October After Robust Global Gold Demand In Q3
– Venezuela Seeks To Repatriate $550 Million Of Gold From London
– Big Short’s Eisman Is Shorting Two U.K. Banks on Brexit
– “Red October” Highlights Importance of Rebalancing Portfolios and Gold’s “Very Positive” Outlook

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

 

 

 

NOV 16

ii) GATA stories
Ronan Manly states that there is no good reason for the Bank of England to reject Venezuela’s request for its gold back.  Countries are getting wind that all of the Bank of England’s gold has been leased/compromised and thus they will also request repatriation of their gold
(Ronan Manly/GATA)

Cheating Venezuela, Bank of England tempts other nations to withdraw their gold

 Section: 

1:20p ET Thursday, November 11, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly writes today that the Bank of England has no good reason to refuse to repatriate Venezuela’s gold as requested, that the refusal is blatantly political, and that it invites other nations to remove their gold from the bank now that the bank has shown itself to be an unreliable fiduciary.

Manly’s analysis is headlined “Bank of England Refuses to Return 14 Tonnes of Gold to Venezuela” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/bank-of-englands-refusal-t…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Brandon White of BMG writes  gold remonetization is much closer than everybody realizes.  He looks at the fact that many central banks are buying gold.

(courtesy BMG/White/GATA)

Brandon White: Gold remonetization is much closer

than many realize

 Section: 

7:58p ET Thursday, November 15, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The financial world doesn’t seem to have realized it yet, Brandon White of bullion dealer BMG Group in Canada writes today for Palisade Research, but gold already has been remonetized by central banks as the ultimate risk-free asset, money without counterparty risk.

Central banks lately have been heavily buying gold, White notes, and the growing danger of another liquidity crisis is making gold even more attractive to financial managers.

White’s analysis is headlined “Gold Remonetization Is Much Closer than Many Realize” and it’s posted at Palisade Research here:

https://palisade-research.com/gold-re-monetization-2019/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END




iii) Other Physical stories
Just look at the damage that the Fed and the bullion banks have done to decimate the mining field.  Now the majority of all silver miners have all in sustaining costs that are significantly higher than the spot silver price.
a great report…
(courtesy Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco report)

Majority Of Silver Miners All-In Sustaining Costs

Significantly Higher Than The Silver Spot Price

 4  401

Seven of the top nine silver miners have costs of production higher than the silver price. Here’s Steve St. Angelo to explain the implications…

by Steve St Angelo of SRSrocco Report

The Primary Silver Miners lastest results were quite dismal as their All-In Sustaining Costs to produce silver were considerably higher than the market price.  Many of the silver miners production costs increased in the third quarter of 2018 due to higher energy, material, and labor costs.

Only one silver mining company out of the group posted a profit of $6.8 million for the quarter, and that was Fortuna Silver Mines.  The biggest loser was Coeur Mining which suffered a $53 million loss for the period.  Even the largest silver miner in the group, Pan American Silver, reported a surprise loss of $9 million Q3 2018.

Now, according to the silver mining companies All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC), only two were lower than the current silver market price:

When I put together this chart, the silver price was trading at $14.02 but has jumped up to $14.17 as the broader markets continue to sell off.  However, as we can see, seven of the nine top primary silver miners AISC is higher than the silver market price (BLUE BAR).  The highest AISC of $22.39 per ounce is awarded to SSR Mining which changed its name from Silver Standard.  SSR Mining is mostly a gold mining company with a very high-cost open-pit silver mine in Argentina called their Puna Operations.

Back in the heyday, Silver Standard’s Piquitas Operation in Argentina was producing nearly 9 million ounces of silver (2012).  Unfortunately, SSR Mining shut down operations at Piquitas last year and is now only processing stockpiles.  So, with just processing stockpiles, SSR Mining’s AISC is $8 more than the current silver market price.

While Pan American Silver and Fortuna published lower AISC’s than the silver market price, the average AISC for the entire group was $16.10.  Even if I was to remove the highest (SSR Mining @ $22.39) and the lowest (Fortuna @ $10.80), the average All-In Sustaining Cost of these miners would still be $15.95.  Thus, the top primary silver miners average AISC is $2 higher than the present silver market price.  

I find it quite interesting that the gold and silver prices continue to show strength during major selloffs in the broader markets.  At some point, investors are going to rotate out of falling stocks and real estate and into the precious metals and the miners.  However, FEAR has not yet made its way into the investor psyche… but it will.

Furthermore, if we consider the Free Cash Flow in the primary silver miners, they are spending $2.5 more per ounce than they are receiving from cash from operations:

The two miners with positive Free Cash Flow in Q3 2018 was Pan American Silver ($8.1 million) and Fortuna ($5.6 million).  However, the majority suffered negative free cash flow with Coeur Mining being the highest at -$33.7 million.  The net free cash flow for the group was a negative $52 million.  Thus, the group was spending $2.6 per ounce more than the cash received from operations.

I calculated that figure by dividing the negative free cash flow of $52 million by the 19.5 million oz produced by the group.

It has been a while since I posted information on the silver miners.  If you have read my articles going back to 2012, you will notice that the group is smaller.  That is due to the shutdown of the Tahoe Resources Escobal Silver Mine in Guatemala, and the removal of SilverCorp Metals and another smaller company.  I had 12 primary silver miners in my group, but now am only concentrating on nine.

Ever since the Muddy Waters Research came out with negative information on SilverCorp Metals, located in China, I don’t trust the company’s data.  While some readers may be upset with this call, I suggest that you watch the documentaryTHE CHINA HUSTLE:

In the movie, Carson Block of Muddy Waters provides details of why he believed SilverCorp Metals was not truthful with its data, which is why he shorted the stock.  To be clear, I am not negative on SilverCorp Metals; rather I remain neutral in that I’d rather not use their data in my analysis.  Each investor needs to make their mind up on the matter.That being said, the primary silver miners are struggling with the low silver price.  While the silver price could go lower, I still believe silver is closer to a low than the stock and real estate markets.  With that understanding, there is a great deal less risk owning silver today than owning most stocks and real estate.

It’s Quite Surprising That Pan American Silver Wants To Buy Troubled Tahoe Resources

Today, Pan American Silver announced its intention to purchase Tahoe Resources and its troubled Escobal Silver Mine in Guatemala that has been shut down for more than a year.  You can read about my take on the Escobal Mine here: WORLD’S 2ND LARGEST SILVER MINE SHUT DOWN: Implications For Company & Market.

The local peoples living around the Escobal Mine have been against the silver project ever since the beginning.  The Guatemalan Supreme Court stepped in and revoked Tahoe’s Escobal Mining license until a consultation of the indigenous communities had been taken.  To me, it is a serious GAMBLE for Pan American to take on this problem.

While the Escobal Mine is the second largest primary silver mine in the world, the evidence I have read suggests that the local people do NOT WANT the mine to reopen.  I have read some western articles suggesting that the local people are protesting so that they can be compensated by a percentage of the mines earnings.  However, the articles coming from the local papers in Guatemala state the exact opposite.  The local people want nothing to do with the mine and would like it to remain closed so they can be assured that the area around them will not be polluted and to also protect their valuable water supply for farming.

So, it will be interesting to see if Pan American Silver can resolve these issues with the local people, but I have my doubts.  Of course, anything is possible, but it still surprising to see Pan American Silver acquire such a troubled asset when they could have concentrated on other projects in their pipeline.

Lastly, even though the primary silver miners are currently struggling, I believe it’s only a temporary situation.  As I have stated over the past year, when the markets crack, the precious metals and the miners will be the GO-TO ASSETS.  Unfortunately, most precious metals investors have given up on the metals and the miners, but this is precisely the time to start getting interested.  Only successful investors buy when the price and sentiment are at an extreme low.

________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9505/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9388   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 10.94POINTS OR 0.41%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 30.19 POINTS OR 0.31%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 123.28POINTS OR 0.57%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 97.16/Euro RISES TO 1.1337

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.10/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.60/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.18 and Brent: 67.90

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE:  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.36%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.45% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.63%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 3.09: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.58

3k Gold at $1217.10 silver at:14.26   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 18/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.04

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.18DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0074 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1433 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.36%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.10% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.35%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3546

Futures Falls On Chip Carnage As World Await Brexit Verdict

Stocks in Europe faded early gains and S&P futures fell after a mixed session in Asia as chip stocks were taken to the woodshed on poor guidance from Nvidia and Applied Materials sparked fears that the chip bull run is over, while investors wondered whether China and America can de-escalate their trade war after mixed signals by US officials just days before the G-20 summit.

The euro failed to rebound while the sterling halted its biggest drop in 2 years after some of the most dramatic 24 hours yet in the Brexit process and another turbulent week for world markets. With reports of a UK leadership coup still rife and fear that the country could crash out of the EU without an agreement, cable struggled to rise above $1.28.

Meanwhile traders around the world were waiting for an outcome from the ongoing Brexit saga: “If and when a vote on the withdrawal agreement occurs is uncertain. Whether the withdrawal bill is passed by both houses of Parliament is uncertain,” Joseph Capurso, a senior currency strategist at CBA, said in a note. “Whether the Prime Minister resigns or is challenged for the leadership is uncertain. And, whether there is a second referendum and/or an election is uncertain.”

Fears over political turmoil in the UK and Italy dragged Europe’s Stoxx 600 back into the red, set for its first weekly drop in three, trimming Friday’s gain as AstraZeneca’s drop weighed on the gauge after a cancer-drug setback while telecom names were outperforming. Utilities started the session lower in the wake of yesterday’s ECJ decision which deemed the UK’s scheme for ensuring power supplies during the winter months as a violation of state aid rules. Other individual movers include Vivendi (+4.2%) sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after posting impressive Q3 sales metrics and announcing a potential sale of part of their Universal Music Group division. Elsewhere, AstraZeneca (-2.3%) and Shire (-1.3%) have been seen lower throughout the session after both posting disappointing drug updates.

Not helping sentiment, ECB head Mario Draghi said the bank still plans to dial back its stimulus at the end of the year, but acknowledged the economy had hit a soft patch and inflation may rise more slowly than expected. “If firms start to become more uncertain about the growth and inflation outlook, the squeeze on margins could prove more persistent,” Draghi told a conference.

Earlier in the day, Asian shares ended the session in the red (MSCI Asia -0.2% to 151.52), led lower by declines in Japan, even as China and Hong Kong rose after initial reports the United States might pause further China tariffs were denied by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross who damped hopes of any imminent trade deal with China. The Nikkei fell 0.6% pressured by a drop in the USDJPY after China Mofcom began an investigation into alleged dumping of machine tools by Japanese firms. The Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) swung between gains and losses after continued liquidity inaction by the PBoC which skipped Reverse Repos for a 16th consecutive occasion.

S&P futures were hit on fresh slowdown concerns, this time out of the semiconductor/chip space, after Nvidia gave a dire sales forecast, projecting a 20% drop in revenue while a disappointing outlook from Applied Materials indicated the chip industry is holding off on expansion plans in the face of a murky outlook for electronics demand. The chipmaking sector saw another bout of selling in Asia, wiping at least $11.2 billion in market value amid signals that demand for servers, personal computers and mobile is falling.

Also falling after hours were shares of AMD and Intel, dragging Nasdaq futures lower.

“It started with Apple, then Nvidia … Since performances of these companies set the tone for the global tech and chip industries, related Japanese stocks will likely be sluggish for a while,” said Takatoshi Itoshima, a strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after Fed Chairman Powell flagged his concern over potential headwinds for the U.S. economy, while the pound staged a modest rebound on reports that some pro-Brexit ministers decided to stay in their governmental posts. The pound gained as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May defied demands to quit and amid reports her environment secretary wouldn’t resign, following the resignation of several ministers Thursday. The yen rallied as trade stress simmered, with investors trying to gauge whether China and the U.S. can de-escalate their dispute.

Also under water was the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, which hit a one-year trough overnight. It had tumbled 10 percent early in the week when support at $6,000 gave way. It was last changing hands at $5,500 on the Bitstamp platform.

Treasuries were steady while 10-year yields on German bonds were set for their biggest weekly fall in three weeks, in a sign that the Brexit uncertainty and worries about Italy’s finances, continued to support demand. Italian bonds edged higher even as European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said in an interview with Il Sole 24 Ore that the country’s government was openly defying EU budget rules. Emerging-market currencies consolidated recent gains while oil prices extended their rebound.

Oil prices rose, helped by a decline in U.S. fuel stockpiles and the possibility of a cut in OPEC output. Brent (+1.3%) and WTI (+1.1%) are both in the green and continuing their rebound seen yesterday with WTI hovering around USD 57.00bbl. Energy newsflow remains light, post-yesterday’s DoE report, however, Iraq’s North Oil Co. have announced that they have resumed Kiruk oil exports heading towards the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Looking ahead, the main highlight on the calendar will be the Baker Hughes rig count. Elsewhere, natural gas futures are relatively steady after their 19% decline yesterday which came in the wake of a 20% increase the day before.

In geopolitical news, US Republican and Democrat Senators filed a bipartisan bill seeking to suspend arms sales to Saudi Arabia in response to war in Yemen and killing of journalist. North Korean Leader Kim inspected test of new high-tech tactical weapons, according to Yonhap citing North Korean state media

Today’s data include October industrial production and capacity utilization. Viacom is among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,725.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.01% to 358.38
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 151.52
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 486.84
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 21,680.34
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,629.30
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 26,183.53
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,679.11
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 35,446.11
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,730.55
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,092.40
  • Brent futures up 1.2% to $67.41/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,216.36
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.93
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.368%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1346
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 3.12%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 1.617%

Top Overnight News

  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has laid out a scenario for a pause in the central bank’s interest-rate hiking campaign sometime next year by highlighting potential headwinds to the U.S. economy.
  • British Prime Minister Theresa May is defying demands to quit as she battles to keep control of her fractious government long enough to deliver a Brexit deal that’s drawn ire from across the political spectrum.
  • Pro-Brexit ministers Michael Gove, Liam Fox, Chris Grayling, Penny Mordaunt and Andrea Leadsom have decided together not to quit the government, Times reporter Tim Shipman said on Twitter.
  • ECB’s Draghi sees no reason for expansion to come to abrupt end, he said at an event in Frankfurt, Germany.
  • PG&E Corp. rallied as much as 49 percent in extended trading Thursday after the head of the California Public Utilities Commission said he can’t imagine allowing the state’s largest utility to go into bankruptcy as it faces billions of dollars in potential liability from deadly wildfires
  • Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Corp. have been contacted by U.S. criminal investigators for information about transactions they handled for a small bank branch in Estonia that’s at the center of one of the biggest money-laundering investigations in history, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Asia-Pac stocks traded indecisively as the region lacked fresh catalysts and as uncertainty regarding Brexit and US-China trade played on investor’s minds. ASX 200 (-0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) were choppy with outperformance of tech and mining names in Australia overshadowed by a lacklustre broader market, while the Japanese benchmark was subdued by mild flows into the JPY and after China Mofcom began an investigation into alleged dumping of machine tools by Japanese firms. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) swung between gains and losses after continued liquidity inaction by the PBoC which skipped OMOs for a 16th consecutive occasion, while participants were also tentative amid ongoing trade uncertainty after conflicting reports regarding the next round of China tariffs being placed on hold which USTR Lighthizer later denied. Finally, 10yr JGBs were mildly higher with prices underpinned amid an indecisive tone seen in stocks and with the BoJ also present in the market for JPY 680bln of JGBs in the belly to super-long end.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Kindergarten Crackdown Is the Latest Disaster for Stocks
  • Modi Is Said to Enlist Tata for Jet Airways Rescue Ahead of Vote
  • Philippines Shuts 3 Miners, Suspends 9 Others After Review
  • Indian Central Bank Board to Discuss Surplus Funds Transfer

European equities trade relatively flat (Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%) in the wake of mixed trade headlines overnight for the US and China. Performance across European indices is relatively equal whilst focus once again falls on the FTSE 100 (U/C) which remains at the whim of Brexit-inspired fluctuations in the GBP. Once again, potential upside for the index is being capped by losses in domestically focused banking names (RBS -3.0%, Lloyds -2.1%) as Brexit uncertainty continues to dampen investor sentiment. In terms of sector specifics, most sectors are trading higher with mild outperformance seen in telecom names. Utilities started the session lower in the wake of yesterday’s ECJ decision which deemed the UK’s scheme for ensuring power supplies during the winter months as a violation of state aid rules. Other individual movers include Vivendi (+4.2%) sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after posting impressive Q3 sales metrics and announcing a potential sale of part of their Universal Music Group division. Elsewhere, AstraZeneca (-2.3%) and Shire (-1.3%) have been seen lower throughout the session after both posting disappointing drug updates.

Top European News

  • Finnish Software Company Basware Is Said to Explore Sale
  • Vauxhall Owner Said to Weigh Closing a Factory Post-Brexit
  • Amid Brexit Gloom, Deutsche Bank Sees Frankfurt as Next London
  • Nyrstar Surges on Hopes Over Trafigura Refinancing Talks

Currencies:

  • GBP – The Pound is not the biggest net mover for a change, but still one of the most volatile and vulnerable as Cable pivots 1.2800 and Eur/Gbp trades between 0.8850-80. The fall-out from Wednesday’s Cabinet meeting continues as UK PM May strives to sell the Brexit draft, but facing a rising rebellion within the Conservative Party that appears to have reached the critical mass required to trigger a no confidence vote. However, some positive news with a key Minister deciding not to follow others out of the Government, as Gove opts to stay rather than go. In terms of technical impulses, Cable is holding above yesterday’s 1.2725 low, ahead of chart support around 1.2710-00 that protects mtd and ytd troughs at 1.2696 and 1.2662 respectively, while near term resistance is seen around 1.2836 before 1.2850, but 1 bn option expiries at 1.2800 could well exert more influence into the NY cut. For Eur/Gbp, several MAs form support blow 0.8850 and the 100 DMA at 0.8910 may hamper further gains if 0.8900 is breached.
  • JPY – Maintaining a firm underlying safe-haven bid as broad risk sentiment remains fragile and China is reportedly investigating machine dumping by Japan – Usd/Jpy near the bottom of a 113.20-65 range.
  • EUR/CAD/CHF – All narrowly mixed vs the Greenback, with the single currency keeping afloat of 1.1300 and eyeing a Fib at 1.1358, while the Loonie is holding recent recovery gains through 1.3200 as oil prices continue their rebound and the Franc meanders between 1.0075-50 vs 1.1000+ earlier this week when the broad Dollar and DXY were in the ascendency (index well above 97.000 vs just below the figure presently).
  • EM – The Lira is off best levels, but still relatively bid after reports that the US could Turkish cleric Gulen in an attempt to assuage President Erdogan to adopt a less aggressive stance against Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi killing. Usd/Try now near the middle of a 5.3240-3940 band.

In commodities, gold (+0.2%) is trading relatively flat after hitting new weekly highs of USD 1218.39/oz earlier in the session; following uneventful overnight trade. Elsewhere, Shanghai Zinc prices have risen due to London Metal Exchange stockpiles falling to decade-low levels. Brent (+1.3%) and WTI (+1.1%) are both in the green and continuing their rebound seen yesterday with WTI hovering around USD 57.00bbl. Energy newsflow remains light, post-yesterday’s DoE report, however, Iraq’s North Oil Co. have announced that they have resumed Kiruk oil exports heading towards the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Looking ahead, the main highlight on the calendar will be the Baker Hughes rig count. Elsewhere, natural gas futures are relatively steady after their 19% decline yesterday which came in the wake of a 20% increase the day before.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%; Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 11, prior 8
  • 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $108.2b, Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $131.8b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday was an extraordinary day where we saw rival factions go into battle, huge infighting, disloyalty, a colossal power struggle, and lots of head scratching over who will win out and where this is all going to end. Indeed, the teaser trailer for the final Game of Thrones series out next April was finally released. However, a remarkable 3 hour UK parliamentary session where PM May was grilled from all sides of the House of Commons probably topped it for drama even if it lacked the CGI effects.

Before we lay out our views on what’s happened over the last 24 hours in our homeland, it’s worth quickly recapping what markets have done as unlike in previous months, it’s not just Sterling which has borne the brunt.

Yes, the Pound did fall -1.65% relative to the Dollar for the biggest one-day decline since October 2016. It was also down -1.86% against the Euro. More dramatic was the move for Gilts where 10y yields rallied -13.3bps and the most since August 2016. They are also now down -37.6bps from the intraday October highs and there’s now only about 12.5bps of hikes priced in for next year  by the BoE. In equities, the overseas earnings-focused FTSE 100 closed flat but the more domestically orientated FTSE 250 ended -1.31%. The sector breakdowns were starker with an index of UK homebuilders closing down -6.76% and the most since the referendum in June 2016 and UK banks selectively weak. RBS at one stage tumbled -10.20% intraday before closing -9.63%. Barclays and Lloyds were down -4.11% and -5.04% respectively. The biggest movers in credit indices were unsurprisingly UK assets too. Looking across iTraxx Main, nine of the top 10 widest credits were UK names with the top three being Marks & Spencer (+17bps), Barclays (+17bps) and RBS (+16bps). How much of these moves were Brexit specific and how much were concerns about what a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour Party General Election win might mean for various companies was difficult to disentangle.

The pain for UK assets spread throughout Europe too, with the DAX, CAC and FTSE MIB finishing -0.52%, -0.70% and -0.90%. Bunds rallied -3.7bps and are now down to 0.358% and testing the October lows again. Treasuries also rallied slightly, with 2- and 10-year yields down -1.5 and -1.2bps. US equities rallied strongly throughout the afternoon session in New York, with the S&P 500 retracing losses of as much as -1.14% to close +1.06%, for the 15th widest trading range of the year. Other major indexes staged similar rebounds, with the DOW up +0.83% and the NASAQ gaining +1.72%. The price action reflected a partial unwind of the last few sessions’ sharp moves, with the best-performing sectors being those that had recently sold off. Energy gained +1.47%, as WTI oil rallied +0.46%, and tech advanced +2.46%. Sentiment was also boosted by comments from US Commerce Secretary Ross, in which he described the upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi as “the big event” and said that “if it goes well, it’ll set the framework for going forward.” This suggests that there is scope for real compromise later this month at the November 30-December 1 G20 summit.

This morning in Asia, markets are largely up following Wall Street’s lead with the exception of Japan. The Hang Seng (+0.29%), Shanghai Comp (+0.71%) and Kospi (+0.40%) are all higher along with most Asian markets while the Nikkei (-0.29%) is down. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.21%) are pointing towards a softer open.

So back to the main story. All eyes now are on whether or not we’ll get a vote of no confidence for PM May. The remarkable 3 hour Parliamentary session yesterday left you feeling in no uncertain terms that the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is highly unlikely to pass in its current form. However, before we even get there, the leadership challenge is the next hurdle. The odds of such a contest appeared to substantially increase yesterday with headlines speculating that close to the required 48 MPs had written to the Conservative 1922 Committee including arch-Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg. This came after two cabinet members yesterday resigned including Dominic Raab – the Brexit Secretary. PM May reportedly offered Tory MP Michael Gove – one of the staunchest Brexiteers – the job of Brexit minister to replace Raab, though media reports suggested that he will resign his post completely instead, which would be a negative signal for May’s ability to keep her coalition together. Other junior ministers also resigned through the day. Overnight, the Telegraph reported that the DUP will scrap its coalition with the Conservatives unless/until PM May is replaced. This would be materially negative news for the embattled PM and for markets, but the pound traded flat amid thin overnight liquidity.

The dilemma for those Brexiteer Tories wanting a leadership contest is that if they force one and May survives (she only needs a majority but, in reality, a narrow win could make her position untenable) she is safe from a challenge for 12 months. The dilemma for those Brexiteers voting against her WA is that this may lead to a series of events that brings a second referendum and the possibility of no Brexit at all. The dilemma for the remain Tory MPs is that if they vote against either or both of Mrs May and the WA, it may topple Mrs May and lead to a leadership challenge. It is highly likely that a hard Brexiteer will be one of the two candidates put to the grass root membership, and given demographics they would have a strong chance of winning and would thus pursue a harder Brexit. So no side has the upper hand at the moment.

As discussed above, the last twenty four hours have illustrated that there is seemingly no parliamentary majority for the current WA. At the same time, there is little prospect of further negotiation with the EU27, given the limited timeline. As DB’s Oliver Harvey wrote yesterday, May is therefore trapped in a bind. The only way to secure parliamentary support for the current deal will be under considerable market pressure, perhaps after multiple failed votes. There are two other options perhaps. One is a pivot towards a much softer form of Brexit – such as EEA membership plus a permanent customs union – however it’s not clear if there’s sufficient time on the EU side to agree to this. The other is a second referendum. This in itself would likely split the Tory Party although it would likely gain parliamentary support. The difficulty will be deciding what question to pose to electors. Some suggest there might be two.

Believe it or not, there was some non-Brexit newsflow yesterday. In Italy, Deputy PM Salvini’s Chief Economic Advisor Claudio Borghi made headlines by responding to a tweet in a manner that seemed to imply that if the League gets a majority in the next election, then Italy would exit the Eurozone. In fairness, this wasn’t how I read the reply but markets traded off the headlines and didn’t really look for the tweet. It was entirely inconsistent with what he’s said in the past and he later denied it outright. However, Italian assets did still react and underperformed post the headline. BTPs sold off +8.9bps from their strongest intraday level, but ultimately closed flat. Elsewhere the US announced sanctions against a total of 17 Saudi Arabian officials concerning the death of Khashoggi. Those sanctions including freezing assets of the officials and limiting access to the US financial system.

The Turkish Lira was already gaining yesterday, but was boosted further by reports that the US is considering removing the Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen from US territory and ultimately closed +1.94% stronger. Turkish authorities have accused Gulen of coordinating an attempted coup in 2016, though the US has not endorsed the claims. If confirmed, the move by the US would represent a considerable thaw in relations between the two countries after they reached a nadir earlier this year.

Meanwhile the economic data that was out was truly a sideshow however for completeness, euro area new car registrations fell -7.3% yoy in October. This partially reflects the idiosyncrasies associated with new emissions rules and shows some bounce back from September’s -23.5% decline. The euro area’s seasonally adjusted trade balance printed at 13.4bn euros, a touch softer than expected. In the UK, retail sales fell -0.5% mom and softened to +2.2% yoy, versus expectations for +0.2% and +2.8%. Core retail sales missed by a similar margin. In contrast, October US retail sales beat expectations, rising +0.8% mom (versus expected +0.5%), though the control group marginally missed, rising +0.3% versus expected +0.4%. November activity surveys from the Philadelphia and New York Federal Reserve Banks were mixed, with the Philly index dropping to 12.9 from 22.2 and the NY index rising to 23.3 from 21.1.

Before we take a look at day ahead, in credit, Michal in our team published a one-pager “After Red October, Better Credit Fund Flows in November So Far” in which he provides an update on recent IG fund flows and puts them in the broader context of other asset classes. You can download the report here . Now as for the day ahead, well it’s hard to look past anything other than Brexit  headlines dominating. However there are some data releases due. In Europe we’ll get final October CPI revisions for the Euro Area and Italy while in the US we’ll get October industrial production and the November Kansas City Fed PMI. We’ll also hear from ECB President Draghi this morning in Frankfurt before the Bundesbank’s Weidmann speaks at the same event this afternoon. Over at the Fed, Evans speaks in the afternoon. Oh and their might be some Brexit headlines to consider.

 

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.94POINTS OR 0.41% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 30.19 POINTS OR 0.31% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 123.28 OR 0.57%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.04%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9505 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil UP to 57.18 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.90 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9505AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9388: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

END

3 C CHINA

 

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

The chief whip cancels his meeting this morning as the EU hints at a revision to the Brexit.  The pound temporarily rises. Still many defections and this could present huge turmoil in EU/Pound trading

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Chief Whip Cancels Morning Meeting As EU Hints At Revision To Brexit

‘Backstop’

Update (8 am ET): The pound is spiking heading into the US trading day, moving back above $1.28, as the anxieties over a potential leadership challenge and mass exodus of May’s cabinet.

Some encouraging developments in the late morning: Parliament chief whip has canceled a meeting with lawmakers about the Brexit deal, according to Buzzfeed. And in an encouraging sign that the EU and the UK might be able to iron out some of the more controversial aspects of the backstop,  EU ministers are expected to focus on changing the wording of the deal to stop it from potentially binding the UK to the customs union “indefinitely”. This would ameliorate the biggest concern voiced by intransigent Tory MPs.

GBP

Still, the confusing contradictory reports about a ‘no confidence’ vote have continued:

Jessica Elgot

@jessicaelgot

This morning we are being briefed that the 48 letters have been reached and also that they have not been reached, and also that people are taking time to think at the weekend and also that they are already over the limit. The only person who actually knows is Graham Brady.

* * *

Update (7:15 am ET): As reports out of Westminster suggest that the threshold for a ‘no confidence’ vote in Theresa May has been reached, No. 10 insists that it hasn’t.

Laura Hughes

@Laura_K_Hughes

Downing Street source says it’s not true they are preparing for a no confidence motion.

* * *

Update (7 am ET): Tory MP Steve Baker says his list of no-confidence letters suggests that the 48-vote threshold has been reached, with perhaps another 12 coming in on top of that.

Though it’s impossible to say for sure because people are “sometimes coy”.

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Steve Baker confirms his list does indeed suggest 48 letter threshold has been reached with maybe a dozen more – but he says impossible to know for sure because colleagues aren’t sometimes coy about what they have actually done

* * *

Update (6:30 am ET): As of 11:30 London Time on Friday, the count for publicly disclosed letters of no confidence in May submitted to the conservatives’ 1922 committee stands at 20…the threshold for calling a vote is 48.

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Public number of letters calling for May to go is 20 …. so hard to know if 48 threshold has been reached yet or will be today or over weekend

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Public number of letters calling for May to go is 20 …. so hard to know if 48 threshold has been reached yet or will be today or over weekend

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Brexiteers hoping they’ll get there unambiguously today

Brexiteers understand that they probably wouldn’t win a no confidence vote. But their plan is to use the vote to demonstrate to May that her draft plan wouldn’t pass in the Commons. More conflicting reports about whether the European Research Group has passed the 48-letter threshold circulated on Friday. But the only man who knows for sure is Tory kingmaker Graham Brady, the MP in charge of the Tory’s 1922 committee.

Here’s a list of MPs who have submitted, or said they plan to submit, letters of no confidence (courtesy of BBG):

  • Jacob Rees-Mogg
  • Mark Francois
  • John Whittingdale
  • Steve Baker
  • Henry Smith
  • Simon Clarke
  • Anne Marie Morris
  • Lee Rowley
  • Sheryll Murray
  • Martin Vickers
  • Adam Holloway
  • Ben Bradley
  • Maria Caulfield

Submitted previously:

  • Nadine Dorries (some weeks ago)
  • Laurence Robertson (a few months ago)
  • Andrew Bridgen (July)
  • Andrea Jenkyns (June)
  • Peter Bone (BBC – submitted some time ago)
  • Philip Davies (July)
  • James Duddridge (a month ago)

* * *

As May scrambles to stop any further resignations, No. 10 Downing Street insists that there will be a new Brexit secretary by the end of the weekend. Some have even suggested that May should take on the role in addition to her prime ministerial duties. Others have speculated that Trade Secretary Liam Fox would be the logical candidate.

* * *

After what was presumably a “long night of the soul” for Environment Secretary Michael Gove, the Tory cabinet minister has decided to split the difference in terms of decisions that would disappoint and delight his boss, Prime Minister Theresa May. He won’t take the Brexit Secretary post vacated on Thursday by Dominic Raab. But – for now, at least – the “tortured” Gove won’t be resigning, according to the London Times.

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Gove is NOT resigning – source close to him says ‘Michael is staying at Defra. He thinks it is important to continue working with Cabinet colleagues to ensure the best outcome for the country’

Though some sources said he could still quit by the end of the weekend.

Tiernan Douieb

@TiernanDouieb

Michael Gove is ‘tortured’? Finally some news about him I like hearing!

But that was about all of the good news for May, who is facing another brutal day of trying to rally fractured Tories behind what she firmly insists is the ‘best deal possible.’ Shortly after former culture secretary John Whittingdale became the latest Tory to announce he had submitted a letter of no-confidence in May, the embattled prime minister did the next logical thing: She sat for a 30-minute radio interview where she continued to try and sell her deal and insisted she would carry on as prime minister.

Following the interview, which received mixed reviews and which ended with a question comparing May with Neville Chamberlain, the prime minister was confronted with reports that the 1922 committee (the private committee for the Conservative Party in the House of Commons) had received the requisite 48 letters to call for a ‘no confidence’ vote in May. According to media reports, the vote could happen in the coming days (though, in a repeat of the drama from Thursday, those reports were swiftly refuted).

Amid all these news, the GBPUSD has been pegged firmly against 1.28, waiting for any major news to break one way or the other.

Circling back to Gove, looked chipper this morning as he confronted the horde of reporters lurking outside his London home.

Gove

The scrutiny was understandably intense, with CNN offering this trenchant analysis of the ‘breakfast indicator’.

It appears that Michael Gove is carrying a paper bag from Patisserie Valerie, a British cafe chain that’s in deep financial trouble. Is this a subtle message? Its chief executive resigned on Thursday. His name? (Paul) May.

And as one reporter noted: “stranger things have happened.”

Robert Peston

@Peston

Gove not resigning. Well stranger things have happened

And although May has insisted that a “People’s Vote” on the deal (which would function as effectively a second Brexit referendum) won’t happen, Labour MPs insist that such a vote is growing increasingly likely (as their chances of seizing power grow). Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader, has said a fresh referendum on Brexit is now “more likely,” according to the Independent.

With Gove sticking around, reporters are turning their attention to another restive senior member of May’s government: International Development Secretary Penny Mordaunt. Approached about her resignation plans this morning, Mordaunt insisted: “I’ve got nothing to say.” Though, according to the latest round of reports, the UK press doesn’t expect any more resignations on Friday as Mordaunt and Commons leader Andrea Leadsom have reportedly agreed to stay on.

With UK markets still recovering from the brutality of Wednesday and especially Thursday, Bloomberg has published a handy guide that functioned more like a warning: All of those analysts who projected a drop in the pound below $1.25 if May’s deal is ultimately defeated might be conservative. They even invoked the memory of the October 2016 ‘flash crash’.

But if lawmakers reject the deal, the currency vigilantes may re-emerge en masse over the low-liquidity Christmas period, ratcheting up pressure on a divided Parliament. Remember the 6% flash crash in October 2016 when the pound was pummeled in just one minute in thin Asian trading?

But it wouldn’t even take an outright rejection of the deal to reawaken the ‘currency vigilantes’. Indeed, as anybody who has been watching the tape probably could guess, they are already with us.

end

The truth behind the whole Brexit mess by our resident expert on this, Tom Luongo

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

May Forces Brexit Betrayal To Its Crisis Point

Authored by Tom Luongo,

The only words that were left out of Theresa May’s announcement of achieving Cabinet approval over her Brexit deal were Mission Accomplished.

Theresa May was put in charge of the U.K. to betray Brexit from the beginning.  She always represented the interests of the European Union and those in British Parliament that backed remaining in the EU.

No one in British ‘high society’ wanted Brexit to pass.   No. One.

No one in Europe’s power elite wanted Brexit to pass.  No. One.

No one in the U.S.’s power elite wanted Brexit to pass.  No. One.

When it did pass, The Davos Crowd began the process of sabotaging it.  The fear mongering has done nothing but intensify.  And May has done nothing but waffle back and forth, walking the political tight rope to remain in power while trying to sell EU slavery to the both sides in British Parliament.

We’re 29 months later and the U.K. is no closer to being out of the EU than the day of the vote.  Why?

Because Theresa May’s 585 page ‘deal’ is the worst of all possible outcomes.  If it passes it will leave the EU with near full control over British trade and tax policy while the British people and government have no say or vote in the matter.

It’s punishment for the people getting uppity about their future and wanting something different than what had been planned for them.

Mr. Juncker and his replacement will never have to suffer another one of Nigel Farage’s vicious farragoes detailing their venality ever again.  YouTube will get a whole lot less interesting.

It’s almost like this whole charade was designed this way.

Because it was.

May has tried to run out the clock and scare everyone into accepting a deal that is worse than the situation pre-Brexit because somehow a terrible deal is better than no deal.  But, that’s the opposite of the truth.

And she knows it.  She’s always known it but she’s gone into these negotiations like the fragile wisp of a thing she truly is.

There’s a reason I call her “The Gypsum Lady.” She’s simply the opposite of Margaret Thatcher who always knew what the EU was about and fought to her last political breath to avoid the trap the U.K. is now caught in.

The U.K. has had all of the leverage in Brexit talks but May has gone out of her way to not use any of it while the feckless and evil vampires in Europe purposefully complicate issues which are the height of irrelevancy.

She has caved on every issue to the point of further eroding what’s left of British sovereignty.  This deal leaves the U.K. at the mercy of Latvia or Greece in negotiating any trade agreement with Canada.  Because for a deal between member states to be approved, all members have to approve of it.

So, yeah, great job Mrs. May.  Mission Accomplished.  They are popping champagne corks in Brussels now.

But, this is a Brexit people can be proud of.

Orwell would be proud of Theresa May for this one.

You people are leaving.  Let the EU worry about controlling their borders.  And if Ireland doesn’t like the diktats coming from Brussels than they can decide for themselves if staying in the EU is worth the trouble.

The entire Irish border issue is simply not May’s problem to solve.  Neither is the customs union or any of the other stuff.  These are the EU’s problems.   They are the ones who don’t want the Brits to leave.

Let them figure out how they are going to trade with the U.K.  It is so obvious that this entire Brexit ‘negotiation’ is about protecting the European project as a proxy for the right of German automakers to export their cars at advantageous exchange rates to the U.K. at everyone’s expense.

Same as it was in the days of The Iron Lady.

If all of this wasn’t so predictable it would be comical.

Because the only people more useless than Theresa May are the Tories who care only about keeping their current level of the perks of office.

The biggest takeaway from this Brexit fiasco is that even more people will check out of the political system. They will see it even more clearly for what it is, an irredeemable miasma of pelf and privilege that has zero interest in protecting the rights of its citizens or the value of their labor.

It doesn’t matter if it’s voter fraud in the U.S. or a drawn out betrayal of a binding referendum. There comes a point where those not at the political fringes look behind the veil and realize changing the nameplate above the door doesn’t change the policy.

And once they realize that confidence fails and systems collapse.

Brexit was the last gasp of a dying empire to assert its national relevancy.  Even if this deal is rejected by parliament the process has sown deep divisions which will lead to the next trap and the next and the next and the next.

By then Theresa May will be a distant memory, being properly rewarded by her masters for a job very well done.

*  *  *

Please support the production of independent and alternative political and financial commentary by joining my Patreon and subscribing to the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Investment Newsletter for just $12/month.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

I) Saudi Arabia

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Another sign that the global economy is slowing dramatically:  October EU data continues to show no relife.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Global Auto Industry Collapse Continues As October EU Data Shows No Relief

The outlook for the global automobile market has been increasingly dire lately, especially after a third quarter that saw sales drop in many major markets across the globe, including China. Now, the latest data from Europe suggests that the difficulties may be nowhere close to over despite optimistic fourth quarter guidance by companies like Volkswagen and Daimler AG.

Deliveries of new passenger cars were down 7.4% in the EU and the European Free Trade Association in October from the year prior. This adds to a 23% drop that occurred during September according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, and which was so acute it led to the first negative GDP print for Germany since 2015.

Despite the ongoing sales weakness, which many attribute to one-time events, some analysts – like those at EY Consultancy – still expect the market to turn around in the fourth quarter. They argue that new emissions testing cited by many companies as the reason for disappointing sales, will only have a temporary effect.

At the same time, Citigroup analyst Angus Tweedie thinks the downside is not over for companies like BMW and Daimler AG, according to Bloomberg. In a note titled“The Golden Age Ends With a Crash”,Tweedie wrote that “Heading into 2019 we see few remaining avenues of maneuver, and with volume growth slowing in most markets believe the scale of pressures will become obvious.”

Meanwhile, ongoing challenges like the slowdown in China have been exacerbated by trade wars, casting a cloud over the industry. However, one of the main potential threats, tariffs on imports from the EU, has been alleviated for now, as we wrote yesterday. Following the data release, European automakers like Daimler, VM, and BMW were all trading lower between 1% and 2%. 

The new emissions standards (dubbed “WLTP”), a remnant of German automakers’ emissions test cheating days, continue to be a cause for profit warnings for companies like Daimler and BMW. The rush to get cars ready for new regulations has put pressure on auto sales this quarter. And while BMW made the deadline, it reportedly couldn’t escape pricing pressure from competitors entering the market at the same time.

The September and October slump follows a marked jump in August that occurred as auto makers rushed to sell vehicles before the new regulations took place. Total sales in Europe are holding onto a meager 1.4% gain through October even as China now predicts its full year passenger auto sales will post their first annual decline  in 30 years.

END

7  OIL ISSUES

the sad case of Canada’s oil crisis.  Their oil is basically shut in and that is why they are getting 15 dollars per barrel

(courtesy Zaremba/Oil Price.com

Canada’s Crude Crisis Is Accelerating

Authored by Haley Zaremba via Oilprice.com,

Canadian oil producers are in an increasingly tough predicament. With high and increasing oil demand around the globe over the last year, Canadian oil production has increased accordingly. All of this is simple and predictable economics, but now Canadian oil has hit a massive roadblock. Producers have the supply, and they have more than enough demand, but they don’t have the means to make the connection. Canadian export pipelines simply don’t have the capacity to keep up with either the supply or the demand.

Canadian oil producers have now maxed out their storage capacity, and the Canadian glut continues to grow while they wait for a solution to the pipeline problem to materialize. As pipeline space is at a premium and storage has hit maximum capacity, oil prices have fallen dramatically, and the differentials that had previously been hitting heavy oil hard in Canada (now at below $18 a barrel for the first time since 2016) have now spread to light oil and upgraded synthetic oil sands crude as well, leaving overall Canadian oil prices at record lows.

(Click to enlarge)

Now, adding to the problem, growth in oil demand has begun to slow in the wake of skyrocketing United States production and the weakening of U.S.-imposed sanctions on Iranian oil. First, the U.S. granted waivers to eight nations to continue buying Iranian oil despite strong rhetoric, and now the European Union has undermined the sanctions even further.

In an effort to correct the pricing drop, some Canadian drillers have been cutting production levels, turning to more expensive forms of transportation like railways to ship their oil, and in some cases even using trucks to move their product. One of Canada’s major producers, Cenovus Energy, has gone so far as to implore the government to impose production caps until the oil glut and inversely corresponding, free falling prices are under control. Some oil sands producers, including Canadian Natural Resource, Devon Energy, Athabasca Oil, and the aforementioned Cenovus Energy, have taken the issue of over-production into their own hands by announcing curtailments that could total 140,000 barrels a day or more.

The massive Keystone XL pipeline project from TransCanada Corp. was going to be a major move in the right direction for the Canadian oil industry, adding much-needed capacity to the network. Keystone XL would add 830,000 barrels of daily shipping capacity — approximately 4.2 percent of total U.S. oil demand — by 2021. Now, in yet another bit of bad news, it looks like Canada won’t be able to count on Keystone XL as a saving grace after all, as a Montana federal judge recently ruled to further delay the pipeline at what is easily the worst possible time for the industry.

Last Thursday’s ruling for an additional environmental review is just the latest setback in a decade-long legacy full of roadblocks for the controversial Keystone XL pipeline. The huge project would construct a 1,179-mile long pipeline for the purpose of delivering Canadian crude from Alberta’s oil sands to a Nebraska junction, from where it would continue its transnational journey all the way to refineries near the Gulf of Mexico. The pipeline was plagued with lawsuits since its inception and has recently seen new waves of litigation since President Donald Trump announced his approval for Keystone XL to cross the U.S.-Canada border in early 2017. At that time, two separate lawsuits challenging the project were filed by the Indigenous Environmental Network, River Alliance and Northern Plains Resource Council, which resulted in last week’s ruling that prohibits both TransCanada and the U.S. government from “from engaging in any activity in furtherance of the construction or operation of Keystone and associated facilities” until the U.S. State Department carries out a supplemental review.

As the options for Canadian oil become more limited, the industry is growing more and more dependent on even fewer projects, including Enbridge Inc.’s Line 3 expansion and the federal government’s Trans Mountain expansion project, leaving dangerously little margin for error.Could Brazil’s Oil Sector Trigger An Economic Miracle

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1337 UP .0013 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.18  DOWN 0.380 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2805 UP   0.0040  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3179  UP .0006 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 13 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1337 / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 10.94 POINTS OR 0.41%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 30.19 POINTS OR 0.31% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.04% /EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 123.28 POINTS OR 0.57%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 30.18 POINTS OR 0.31% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.94      POINTS OR 0.41%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.04%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 123.28 POINTS OR 0.57%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1216.30

silver:$14.27

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.10% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.35 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.16 UP 4  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.98% UP 1    in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.10%  DOWN 1  BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.64% up 1  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.49 up 0   POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 185 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.37%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 3.12% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1407 UP .0083 or 83 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.80 down .761 OR 76 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2834 UP .0068( POUND UP 68 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 21 basis points to 1.3151

 

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This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 83 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1407

The Yen ROSE to 112.80 for a GAIN of 76 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 68 basis points, trading at 1.2834/

The Canadian dollar GAINED 21 basis points to 1.3151

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.9380-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9226(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.3475

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.10%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.08 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.34 DOWN 0 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.49 DOWN 44 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 24.13 POINTS OR 0.34%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 12.67 POINTS  OR 0.11%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 7.80 POINTS OR 0.09%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 33.10 POINTS OR 0.36%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 27.05 POINTS OR 0.14%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.96 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 67.06 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.06  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .20 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER by 20 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.3475 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.37 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:56.83

 

BRENT:66.94

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.07%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.33%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1416 ( UP 91 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.86 DOWN .705 (YEN UP 71 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.45 DOWN 48 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2827 DOWN 63 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3332

the Russian rouble:  66.03 down 17 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 17 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3153 UP 21 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9380  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9185 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.37%

 

The Dow closed  UP 121.95 POINTS OR 0.49%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 11.16  points or 0.15% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.60 CLOSED DOWN  1.38

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.640%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/HUGE JUMP today

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Crude & Credit Crash, Stocks Slide As Bonds See Best Week In 19 Months

Well that another week… “are you not entertained?”

 

 

 

China had an exuberant week (as the rest of the world limped lower) led by Shenzhen and CHINEXT (the small cap/tech indices)…

 

European Stocks were lower on the week, led by Italy…

 

Early dovish comments from The Fed’s Clarida sent the USD  and TSY yields lower and stocks higher, then Trump comments on China were thoroughly embraced by equity algos but not FX or bond markets…

 

US Futures show the Clarida jump and the Trump jump and the late-Friday jump…

 

Late-day weakness spoiled the fun for the day…Nasdaq dropped into red along with Trannies…

 

On the week, only Trannies managed to close green…

 

Materials and Real Estate managed gains and Utes scrambled to unchanged on the week…

 

Nvidia made the headlines as the crypto-collapse hit demand and sent the stock from being up 50% YTD to down 15% YTD in a few weeks…

 

Credit markets crashed notably this week (impacted by GE’s collapse)… with IG spreads blowing out 10bps – the biggest weekly spread widening since Feb 2016…

 

Signaling more pain to come for stocks…

 

Treasuries were well bid all week – especially in the belly…

 

Notably the longer-end of the curve steepened notably this week…

 

10Y Yields broke through the 50DMA…

 

5Y yields plunge 15bps on the week – the biggest drop since April 2017 (after worst week since September 2017) – blowing back below 3.00% to close at 2-month low yields…

NOTE – 7Y yield also closed below 3.00% for the first time since September 17th.

And before we leave the rates markets, it is notable that the market is rapidly losing faith in The Fed – 2019 rate-hike expectations (red) have collapsed, and 2020 and 2021 are now expected flat or a modest rate cut…

 

The Dollar Index broke below a key level this week – 97…

 

While Yuan strengthened against the USD… (note today’s spike after Trump’s trade comments)

 

Yuan weakened notably in the last few days against gold…(seemingly drawn back to its latest peg around 8500 Yuan per ounce)

 

Cryptos had an ugly week as, among other things, Bitcoin Cash fork uncertainty sparked derisking…

 

Copper bounced today after Trump trade comments, PMs managed to hold the week’s gains but WTI plunged…

 

Of course, all the big headlines were taken by crude, which is down for the 6th week in a row, crashing to a $54 handle and its lowest level since Nov 2017…

 

And as WTI plunged, NatGas super-spiked…

 

While all eyes were on WTI, Canadian Western Select Crude crashed to a record low…

 

It seems that 5 ounces of silver is just too rich in this new regime for a barrel of oil…

 

Gold spiked above its 50- and 100-DMA this week…

 

Just as credit is flashing red, so are commodity markets – most notably, Lumber…

 

Finally, we note that monetary policy divergence is at a major turning point that has not worked out well in the past…

And, just in case you were banking on buybacks bringing your bullish portfolio back to life, consider this…

$800BN spent on buybacks year-to-date, and the index is… unchanged!

END

 

 

market trading

The dollar and the bond yields tumble on Fed Vice Chairman Clarida warning that global growth is slowing. We have been highlighting this to you for the past few years. Clarida contradicts Powell by saying that they are close to the neutral rate..whatever that means.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dollar, Yields Tumble  On Clarida Growth Warning, But “Fed Put”

Remains Distant

Two days ago, Fed chair Powell held a much anticipated Q&A at the Dallas Fed, in which while some read incremental dovishness to his September “we are far away from the neutral rate” speech, was quite upbeat overall, and most importantly said that while “stock market turmoil is something that affects the real economy and financial conditions matter for the outlook, defied hopes for a Fed intervention to halt the market slump saying that the Fed is “looking mainly at the real economy.” In fact, one could say that Powell brushed aside the recent market volatility, saying the October episode is just “one of many factors in a very large pod” and that additionally “financial conditions and financial market activity matters a lot for that, and it’s not just the equity market.”

Fast forward to this morning when speaking to CNBC, Fed vice chairman Richard Clarida underscored the Fed’s rising concerns with the global economy, warning that there is “some evidence of global slowing” while implicitly contradicting the September Powell by saying that policy is “getting closer to vicinity of neutral and being at neutral would make sense.”

Just as importantly, Clarida said that the Fed should pay attention to the (slowing) global economic outlook, and said that he doesn’t expect “a big pickup in inflation next year.”

These comments were enough to send 10Y yields and the dollar sliding, with both now at session lows.

In fact, the dollar has tumbled to a one week low, erasing the entire hawkish FOMC move.

And while this initial bout of dovishness may have sparked hopes of an immediate market bounce amid expectations that the Fed may push back on a December rate hike, Clarida then said that he remains “optimistic on the outlook for higher productivity growth in the U.S.”

Yet while there were some contradictions between Powell on Wednesday and Clarida this morning, the Fed vice chair once again snuffed out any hope that the “Fed put” is coming, when he said that the Fed “don’t get a clear signal from stock markets so far”, and that the Fed’s policy rate is barely above the rate of inflation, while adding that “gradual policy approach has served the Fed well.”

This confirms what we said on Wednesday in our Powell post-mortem: “the Powell “Fed put” is still hundreds of points below the current level of the S&P“, even if the market isn’t so sure, and in direct response to Clarida’s speech has pushed futures off session lows.

end
A joke:  after rising on hopes of a Chinese deal, it reversed course as humans realized the Trump-China comments meant nothing
(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Sink As Humans Realize Trump’s China Comments Meant Nothing

Update: As all humans watching the president’s statement realized, there was nothing new at all and The White House has just confirmed that: “After Trump’s comments on China & trade, White House officials told CNBC that people should not read too much into those claims, because there is no sign of a deal coming soon.”

CNBC Now

@CNBCnow

After Trump’s comments on China & trade, White House officials told CNBC that people should not read too much into those claims, because there is no sign of a deal coming soon. https://cnb.cx/2zXw1Rs

Dow jumps after Trump says China wants to make trade deal

cnbc.com

*  *  *

The algos have their sensitivity cranked up to ’11’ today…

President Trump said the following…

  • *TRUMP: CHINA WOULD LIKE TO MAKE A DEAL
  • *TRUMP: CHINA SENT LIST OF THINGS WILLING TO DO ON TRADE
  • *TRUMP: THINK WE WILL HAVE GREAT RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA
  • *TRUMP SAYS MAY NOT HAVE TO DO MORE CHINESE TARIFFS
  • *TRUMP: DON’T WANT TO PUT CHINA IN BAD POSITION
  • *TRUMP: CHINA LIST PRETTY COMPLETE, FOUR OR FIVE THINGS LEFT OFF

Embedded video

Aaron Rupar

@atrupar

Asked detailed question about his trade policy with China, Trump immediately retreats to same vague talking points he’s been using at his rallies for months.

“I think we will have a great relationship with China. Hopefully we will have a deal,” Trump says.

And the machines panic bid stocks…

Notably, the FX markets entirely ignored this and bond yields nudged very modestly higher…

It appears Trump has discovered the OPEC jawbone strategy: repeat the exact same thing every day, betting idiot algos will buy.

market data/

Another indicator showing that USA economy is slowing down dramatically:  this time auto assemblies tubmle

(courtesy zerohedge)

Industrial Production Slows As Auto Assemblies

Tumble, Hurricanes Blamed

US Industrial Production growth slowed once again in October, rising just 0.1% MoM (and revised lower historically). Of course, there is always an excuse for any disappointment – this time it was hurricanes.

“Hurricanes lowered the level of industrial production in both September and October, but their effects appear to be less than 0.1 percent per month.”

Expectations were for  0.2% rise…

The year-over-year growth in industrial production slowed dramatically (from 5.6% to +4.1%)…

Manufacturing output moved up 0.3 percent in October despite a sizable drop in motor vehicle assemblies (down 4.5% MoM); manufacturing production excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.5 percent.

Is the Industrial Average about to catch down to the Industrial Output?

 

end

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

This is interesting:  PG and E was heading higher in morning trading despite by downgraded by Moody’s.

Why? there is a report that PG and E will not go bankrupt. However they admit that they might be responsible for the “campfire” blaze that is wrecking havoc in Northern California.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Here’s Why PG&E, Which Was Just Downgraded By

Moody’s, Is Soaring After Hours

With PG&E shares plummeting another 30% during Thursday’s session – the most since PG&E filed for bankruptcy in 2001 – and bringing their drop in the past week to an unprecedented 64% while dragging the company’s stock price to levels not seen since its emergence from bankruptcy in 2004, investors have been frantically searching for clues from the state of California whether the company that has been implicated as the cause of California’s devastating Camp Fire will survive or be forced to file for bankruptcy, dragged by the mounting billions in legal .

They finally got it on Thursday afternoon, after a California Public Utilities Commission official told investors on a conference call that the agency doesn’t want PG&E to go into bankruptcy, and in fact “can’t imagine a PG&E bankruptcy now”, Bloomberg reported citing a person familiar with the matter.

The call, which was hosted by Bank of America analysts, included PUC President Michael Picker and other commission officials.

Following Picker’s statement, PG&E shares soared 42% higher after hours, erasing all of the day’s losses.

It wasn’t clear just what the CPUC had in mind in terms of a financial backstop funding to avoid a bankruptcy, but Bloomberg also reported that California policymakers were informally weighing legislation that would let PG&E sell bonds to cover any possible liabilities arising from the deadly Camp Fire, though no formal proposals have been made. It was also not clear just what masochistic investors would purchase bonds that would basically be a stop gap preventing the equity from getting wiped out in a worst case legal scenario.

Because the legislature isn’t in session, the earliest any proposal could be introduced would be Dec. 3, when new members are sworn in. Lawmakers may opt to introduce amendments to a wildfire liability law signed in September, according to a research note Thursday from Bank of America Corp. Provisions of the law designed to help PG&E pay for last year’s wildfires could be extended to 2018 fires.

“Any assembly member or senator would be able to introduce legislation on December 3 but I have not heard of anyone expressing their intent to do so,” said Kevin Liao, a spokesman for the state assembly speaker. Evan Westrup, a spokesman for California Governor Jerry Brown’s, wouldn’t comment on possible state actions to help PG&E.

As reported earlier, the Camp Fire has claimed at least 56 lives so far. As bodies continue to be recovered, lawmakers say they’re focused on responding to the needs of the victims even as anger focused at PG&E builds.

The latest round of devastating wildfires have caused the worst stock rout for PG&E since the California power crisis of 2000-2001, which forced the company to put its utility subsidiary through bankruptcy after talks over a state bailout failed. During that restructuring, power supplies were unaffected but PG&E customers were forced to pay above-market rates for electricity for years.

While there’s a growing consensus that any path for PG&E’s recovery will have to run through Sacramento, state action will be complicated by changes from the recent election, including a new governor, Gavin Newsom. But any action perceived as helping utilities over wildfire survivors would be sure to draw controversy, as it did earlier this year over legislation that provided the companies some relief from their liabilities.

An alternative is quasi takeover of PG&E by the state, wiping out the equity, although it wasn’t immediately clear what the mechanics of such a transaction would be. Still, the following latest headline from Bloomberg suggests that the state is actively looking at some form of intervention, one which might result in the partial or full impairment of the company’s equity.

  • CALIFORNIA PUC TO EXAMINE PG&E STRUCTURE, GOVERNANCE AFTER FIRE

John Myers

@johnmyers

Statement this afternoon from CA Public Utilities chairman Michael Picker says #SB901 rulemaking for wildfire/utilities is coming… but don’t miss this big comment about PG&E tucked into the final sentence.

Separately, on Thursday evening Moody’s downgraded PG&E’s long-term credit rating from Baa2 to Baa3, the lowest investment grade rating; Moody’s cited the material exposure to new potential liabilities associated with the Camp fire and the uncertainties associated with how the fire-related liabilities will be recovered.

“The 2018 wildfires are not covered under the recently passed California legislation SB 901, an omission that will now have more serious credit implications for the company,” VP-Senior Credit Officer, Jeff Cassella said.

Moody’s also kept the utility on review for further downgrade to junk, which means that in the great race for who will be the first mega “fallen angel” of the current credit cycle, it is now a three way race between PG&E and its $19.4 billion in debt, General Electric and Ford. Should the CPUC’s hopes to avoid a PG&E default be dashed, PG&E may go from investment grade to default in the shortest period of time since the bankruptcy of Lehman.

END

Dramatic shots of an entire town destroyed..P G and E states that down lines was probably the cause of the start of the “campfire” destruction.

(zerohedge)

“The Whole Town Is Gone”: Dramatic Drone Footage

Reveals Scale Of Fire Destruction In Paradise, CA

With the historic California Camp Fire still raging, having consumed over 138,000 acres by Wednesday night and so far only 40% contained, authorities said that the number of people who had been killed in the deadliest wildfire in California history had grown to 56 with 297 people still unaccounted. According to the sheriff’s office, more than 8,700 homes have been destroyed since the Camp Fire ignited on November 8.

“We’ll be here for several years working this disaster,” Brock Long, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said at a news conference after he toured Paradise with Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke and California Gov. Jerry Brown.

“This is going to be a very long, a frustrating event for the citizens of Paradise,” said Long, who added it would be reasonable for residents to conclude that rebuilding the city isn’t worth it.

“The infrastructure is basically a total rebuild at this point,” he said. “You’re not going to be able to rebuild Paradise the way it was.”

Brown described the scene as a “war zone,” saying, “This is so devastating that I don’t really have the words to describe it.” The governor said President Donald Trump, with whom he has often clashed, called him on Wednesday to offer his full support.

“We’re in a different kind of world, we know that,” he said. “We’re in for very difficult times. It’ll never be the same. But I can assure you that everyone in California is going to do their best.”

Zinke, meanwhile, called the devastation the worst wildfire damage that he had ever seen, calling for new policies and plans to avert a repeat. “This is unacceptable year after year after year,” he said.

Officials haven’t yet determined the cause of the fire, but Pacific Gas & Electric, or PG&E, said in an 8K earlier this week that its equipment may have sparked the blaze. It said it might not have enough insurance to cover the expected cost of the damage, resulting in a record drop in its stock price this week. On Wednesday, a group of Northern California fire lawyers sued PG&E in state Superior Court alleging that the company failed to properly maintain, repair and replace its equipment and that “its inexcusable behavior contributed to the cause of the ‘Camp Fire.’

Separately, president Trump will survey damage this weekend from the deadliest wildfire in California’s history, after he incited a backlash by repeatedly threatening to cut off federal firefighting money even as the inferno and its death toll grew. Trump may visit the ruins of the town of Paradise, Bloomberg reported.

Meanwhile, several drone footage videos have emerged showing the full extent of the devastation in Paradise.

survey damage this weekend from the deadliest wildfire in California’s history, after he incited a backlash by repeatedly threatening to cut off federal firefighting money even as the inferno and its death toll grew. Trump may visit the ruins of the town of Paradise, Bloomberg reported.

 

 

END
Quite a story:  The new Goldman CEO is outraged by the 1MDB scandal.  How could this honest Goldman Sachs company enter into criminal arrangements that hurt a nation terribly.
(courtesy reuters/Saxena)

Goldman CEO “personally outraged” by Malaysia’s

1MDB corruption scandal

Nov 15 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs Group Inc Chief Executive Officer David Solomon has told employees he is “personally outraged” that any of the bank’s officials would take the actions laid out in U.S. government charges of fraud involving Malaysia’s state controlled investment bank, 1MDB.

Solomon made the comments in a voicemail sent to employees on Wednesday, weeks after U.S. prosecutors unveiled criminal charges against two former Goldman bankers tied to the alleged theft of billions of dollars from 1MDB, according to a transcript of a voicemail sent to employees on Wednesday which the bank gave to Reuters on Thursday.

The government of former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak set up 1Malaysia Development Berhad, or 1MDB, in 2009.

An estimated $4.5 billion was misappropriated from 1MDB by high-level officials of the fund and their associates between 2009 and 2014, the U.S. Justice Department has alleged. Najib has consistently denied wrongdoing in connection with alleged graft involving 1MDB.

Tim Leissner, a former partner for Goldman Sachs in Asia, has pleaded guilty to conspiracy to launder money and conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and agreed to forfeit $43.7 million.

Roger Ng, the other charged former Goldman banker, was arrested in Malaysia at the request of U.S. authorities.

“It goes without saying that they (the former employees) violated the firm’s policies and procedures and acted in conflict with all that we stand for,” Solomon said in Wednesday’s voicemail to Goldman staff.

Goldman has been under scrutiny for its role in helping 1MDB raise funds through bond offerings, from which it earned around $600 million in fees, an amount critics said exceeded the normal level for fees.

Goldman has previously said that it “continues to cooperate with all authorities investigating this matter.” It has denied any wrongdoing.

“1MDB remains an ongoing investigation, and we will continue to work with the Department of Justice and other authorities to get to the bottom of what happened and to move forward,” Solomon added in Wednesday’s voice mail.

Malaysia’s current Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad on Tuesday said Goldman’s bankers “cheated” the country in dealings with the state fund, while Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng said his country would seek a “full refund” of fees the bank earned.

Goldman’s shares have fallen nearly 10 percent since the U.S. prosecutors filed a lawsuit against two former Goldman bankers. The stock has fallen more than 20 percent this year.

While U.S. prosecutors have previously filed civil asset forfeiture suits for assets allegedly bought with some of the stolen funds, the action against the former Goldman bankers are the first criminal charges the Justice Department has brought against individuals in the case under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, a federal law targeting official bribery abroad.

At least six countries, including Malaysia, the United States and Switzerland, have been investigating alleged thefts from 1MDB.

The 1MDB investigations in the United States and Malaysia have gathered pace since Najib unexpectedly lost a general election in May to Mahathir Mohamad, who returned to power 15 years after he retired as prime minister.

The story was first reported by Bloomberg on Thursday. bloom.bg/2Pxoq6u

(Reporting By Aparajita Saxena in Bengaluru; Editing by James Emmanuel, Neal Templin and Clive McKeef)

end
This  is interesting:  The Wall Street Journal agrees with Trump that the Fed should stop hiking because of the damage that it is doing
(courtesy zerohedge/Wall Street Journal)

WSJ Agrees With Trump: Fed Should Stop Hiking

When President Trump proclaimed that “The Fed has gone crazy,” the elites were stunned. When President Trump exclaimed, The Fed “is making a big mistake with ridiculous rate-hikes,” the establishment was dumbfounded. And when President claimed that The Fed was his “biggest threat, because rates were rising too fast,” the deep state lashed out with 25th Amendment headlines and “Democracy and independence under threat” byelines.

So isn’t it just a little ironic that The Wall Street Journal – that bastion of free market capitalism and oracle of financial opinion should admit in its Editorial Board’s latest opinion that Trump is right and The Fed needs to slow down on the rate-hikes.

Via The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board,

America Is Not An Island

As the world economy slows, Trump and the Fed need to adapt.

President Trump’s biggest achievement has been the revival of faster U.S. economic growth, but past performance is no guarantee of future results. The White House should be worried about growing economic strains in the rest of the world, and policy makers need to prepare. The U.S. is not an island.

For now the American economy and especially the labor market seem strong as tax reform and deregulation unleash animal spirits. But the German economy shrank 0.2% in the latest quarter, the first contraction since 2015. Europe’s largest economy will still grow this year, but a trade surplus and negative interest rates aren’t a growth tonic. Europe in general seems to be reverting back to its post-crisis mean of meager growth.

Japan contracted 0.3% in the last quarter, perhaps ending its modest growth spurt. Beijing last month said China’s economy grew a surprisingly slow 6.5% year-on-year in its latest quarter, and that official figure is usually an overstatement.

Some of this is due to such one-time factors as bad weather, but anxious markets are signaling larger concern. German auto exports are weak, and China is trying to sustain growth without adding to its debt overhang. The high-yield bond market has the jimmy legs, and oil prices are down on weaker demand. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the insouciant one, on Wednesday called events “concerning.”

Add currency shifts to those worry beads, as the U.S. dollar soars. Beijing is trying to stem flight from the yuan, and the pound fell another 1.5% against the dollar on Thursday on Brexit woes. The euro’s decline against the dollar needs particular watching because it’s the world’s most important price and contributes to investment uncertainty. Sharp changes in the euro-dollar rate contributed to the global financial panic in 2008.

European political risks may increase, as Germany could soon gain a new leader and the European Union tries to bludgeon Italy into an anti-growth budget. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government in London is hanging by a thread as she struggles to sell a European Union divorce deal to Parliament.

The world’s fifth-largest economy could crash out of its most important trading relationship with no alternative in place. A disorderly Brexit could also usher in a socialist Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn, and watch the pound fall if that happens.

All of this is a warning for Mr. Trump and others in Washington: No moat can protect the U.S. economy, and they need to adapt.

Start with the Fed, which should rethink its December rate increase. No other major central bank is likely to raise its rates soon. The Fed needs to weigh whether it should expand the gulf between U.S. and foreign monetary policies at a fragile moment as global investors demand more dollars.

Mr. Powell will be wary of seeming pliable amid Mr. Trump’s demands for lower rates, but tighter credit conditions and low inflation support a pause independent of Mr. Trump’s bluster. Now is not the time for a doctrinaire march toward “normalcy,” which the Fed can resume in 2019 if the data warrant.

Mr. Trump should also settle his trade tempests. He wants Germany to export less, and look at the result after a quarter of soft auto sales abroad. Trade uncertainty is weighing on business investment much as Barack Obama’s regulatory assaults did. If you’re a CEO and don’t know how global supply chains will be affected by tariffs or new trade deals, you delay investment.

Mr. Trump’s steel tariffs are still hitting Mexico and Canada even after the revised Nafta deal, and his 25% car tariff reappears now and again like Freddy Krueger. Adviser Peter Navarro suggested a long trade war with China last week, and stocks promptly sold off.

***

Mr. Trump claims the U.S. economy is strong enough to ride out his trade wars. Well, how lucky does he feel? Last week the President suffered a bruising midterm election defeat even with a strong economy. If the U.S. starts to slow like its major economic partners, he’s going to lose the 2020 election before anyone has time to “win” a trade war.

This month’s G-20 summit is a chance for Mr. Trump to show some economic statesmanship and look for a trade truce. This needn’t be a show of weakness as he can continue negotiations to press market reforms abroad on China’s intellectual-property theft or Europe’s tax assaults on American tech companies. But he needs to signal that the U.S. won’t continue punitive tariff attacks on allies.

With his polarizing political style, Mr. Trump even more than most Presidents will succeed or fail based on economic results. He should appreciate that a recession in the rest of the world is a threat to the U.S. economy and his Presidency.

*  *  *

How long before WSJ is demonized and slandered for such heresy?

end

Blain explains GE’s credit meltdown is going to be a huge problem for markets

(Bill Blain)

 

Blain: “GE’s Credit Meltdown Is Coming At Just The

Right Time To Ruin Everyone’s Day”

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

“Reversion to the mean is the iron rule of markets..”

Let’s have a Brexit Free morning.. see how the dust settles, who kills who, and who is left standing on Monday morning..

Two of the most important of Blain’s Trading Mantras are:

“THE MARKET HAS NO MEMORY”

“THE MARKET’S ONLY OBJECTIVE TO INFLICT THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF PAIN ON THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS”

Bearing these in mind, and what’s going on globally, I’m wondering if its time to set up for the big corporate bond buying moment. There is nothing to be fearful about when it comes to volatility. Just be ready for it. For bond markets to be an opportunity… prices have to move dramatically lower. And I think they will as the market wakes up to smell the proverbial coffee.

Long ago, in a galaxy far far away…

There once was a company in far-off Texas that grew and grew its energy and commodities business into a AAA rated behemoth hailed as “American’s Most Innovative Company” year after year. Everyone was happy. They all got massive bonuses right up to the moment Enron went bust on the back of massive accounting fraud, and bond holders were hosed.

17 years later there is another former AAA corporate darling on the cusp of being downgraded to Junk. After reporting $30 bln of unexpected charges and a shortfall in insurance reserves in October, GE’s bond spreads have ballooned as investors start to panic about accounting probes, crashing demand for its products, worries about its $115 bln debt mountain, and the perception of a liquidity meltdown.

Investors are right to be scared. The last few years has seen a bond binge with spreads dramatically tightening on the back of free money. Now its reversing. Investment-grade bond spreads have widened across the board as the bond market wonders who else might be swimming without their bathing suits…

You have to ask what credit analysts do all day…

Nearly half the $6 trillion investment grade bond market is now rated within a single notch of being downgraded to Junk. Not that ratings actually mean that much – another lesson investors seem to have conveniently forgotten just 10-years after they swore they’d never trust ratings again. It’s just too easy to forget they are just expensive opinions.

Over the last 8 years US corporates have gorged on cheap debt – and used it all to buy-back their own stock or payout the Leveraged buyout funds that own them. Debt has risen while profitability has declined. Converting equity into debt to give cash to owners means they haven’t built new plant to make stuff that will repay debt. That multiplies their vulnerability to rising interest rates.

Bond covenants have become progressively softer and less onerous even as US corporates have binged on ultra-low rates selling bonds to investors desperate to buy anything yielding half-a-tad more than Treasuries. (For readers unfamiliar with bond market terms like a tad, smidge or a bit, its dead simple; a tad is bit more than a smidge, or is it smidge is tad less than a bit?)

Once again Ratings lie at the centre of the problem. Fund managers still have rules like “only buy investment grade bonds”, so they do – assuming a rating is the guinea stamp (guarantee) of investment quality, and that attaching a slew of As to a bond somehow justifies buying stuff they just don’t really understand.

Another unintended consequence of QE is yield tourism – investors who were safe in the shallow-risk toddler pond of Government bonds found themselves forced into deeper more dangerous waters of high-risk BBB and Hi-Yield Junk in search of meaningful yields. As the default-sharks gather, the inevitable feeding frenzy is about to start….

Yet another consequences of the crash of 2008 are pages of regulatory overkill and rules that have killed bond market liquidity by constraining banks from doing stuff like making markets or acting as brokers. Markets are dramatically less efficient. Bond markets in the most difficult sectors are trading a massively wider bid/offers and become “distressed” at the first sign of trouble. That’s a long way of saying there will be zero liquidity when fear becomes flight. (And that’s why anyone trying to sell illiquid bonds today is discovering they are a distressed seller!)

(Nor has it helped that banks have seen fit to dismiss most of the experienced sales staff who might have understood underlying value and how to trade difficult debt, and replaced them with young graduates who can just about navigate themselves around the daily sales sheet, but understand nothing about providing liquidity.)

In short, GEs credit meltdown is coming at just the right time to ruin everyone’s day. Its not as if thing aren’t bad enough already…

When I was a lad, the trip upstate to see the Treasurer of GE was one of the most fearsome of tasks for a young debt origination banker. I’d try to explain demand and the success of the fantastic deals we’d just completed for Ford and GM, and have these dismissed as irrelevant as they had nothing in common with GE. I was unsubtly told If I wanted GE’s debt funding business, I better be prepared to “pay to play” by providing lots of cheap MTN funding before I’d get a public bond mandate from them.

20 years later and GE still has $115bln of outstanding debt. Prices on the benchmark GE 4.4% 2035 bond longer-dated bonds have crashed from near par to near 82% in recent weeks. I imagine I’d get my arm bitten off if I offered them new funding today. Or maybe not.. I read a comment yesterday: “GE does not plan to raise new debt until 2020, so the recent increase in bond yields will not increase current interest expenses.. the company plans to pay down debt through asset sales before returning to bond markets.”  Am I convinced? That sounds like a company facing a classic liquidity squeeze. What is Plan B if asset sails don’t work fast enough?

Its spread will likely widen further. Banks and other lenders are buying credit default protection. A few weeks ago, the Commercial Paper market effectively slammed shut to the name. If the rating is further cut to junk, then there will be a wave of enforced bond sales from buyers who can only hold Investment Grade Paper – further widening the pain.

Corporate defaults are a fact of life – a fact many US bond pundits are now waking up to. Recent new deals across the Investment Grade sector have struggled to achieve much market excitement. I can’t help but be amused by bond analysts writing stuff about how attractive bond spreads look at these levels. It feels to me like a crisis is brewing…

Very simple question… why would you buy mega risky high yield debt at 6% when I can sell you absolutely solid secured asset backed alternative debt at 7-8% that’s uncorrelated to the coming debt debacle?

Meanwhile….

Fed Head Jerome Powell is warning the Fed’s rising rate campaign may stall next year on the back of slowing demand overseas, the likelihood of fading fiscal stimulus next year, and the effects of the Fed’s previous hikes now being felt across the economy.

That could mean we’re looking at any big bond correction on credit fundamentals being capped by a slow down in rate rises – the new normal economy of lower growth and constrained inflation?

When bond prices do correct they are going to look very good value if we are into a new normal. Which is why I’m wondering if its time to go bottom fishing on a crash – but in very selective names.

end

SWAMP STORIES

Jim Acosta’s White House credentials restored temporarily after a judge’s ruling

(courtesy zerohedge)

Jim Acosta’s White House Credentials Restored

Temporarily After Friday Ruling

The battle over Jim Acosta’s press pass has been temporarily won by CNN after a federal judge ordered the White House to immediately restore the journalist’s access, following a Nov. 7 White House altercation which resulted in the revocation of Acosta’s credentials.

ErikWemple

@ErikWemple

Judge just ruled in favor of @Acosta: Cnn TRO is granted and press pass must be restored

Trump-appointed Judge Timothy J. Kelly acknowledged that the White House credentialing process has a First Amendment component, and that the government must give Acosta due process before revoking his press pass.

ErikWemple

@ErikWemple

Judge Kelly now saying that process of White House credentialing essentially concedes that there is a First Amendment interest at stake

ErikWemple

@ErikWemple

Judge says that under Sherrill precedent, government must give Acosta due process to revoke press pass

Kelly then criticized the Justice Department’s defense of how it revoked Acosta’s pass, and said that the White House’s account of Acosta “placing hands” on a White House intern was of “questionable accuracy.”

ErikWemple

@ErikWemple

Judge criticizes government’s defense of its procedures in revoking @Acosta press pass.

ErikWemple

@ErikWemple

Judge now saying that the whole thing about @Acosta “placing hands” on intern was of “questionable accuracy”

CNN sought “emergency relief” from the court on the grounds that Acosta’s First Amendment rights are being violated every day he is banned from the White House grounds.

The network, pointing to instances where Trump has criticized Acosta and CNN, also sought “permanent relief,” or a declaration from Judge Kelly that President Trump’s revocation of Acosta’s press pass violated the constitution. If successful, this legal conculsion could have wide ranging implications for other White House reporters.

CNN, represented by Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher partner Theodore Boutrous, pointed to instances where Trump publicly criticized Acosta and CNN as “fake news.” Kelly appeared to question whether the decision to revoke Acosta’s credentials was driven by the content of his coverage—raising First Amendment issues—or instead by his conduct at a press conference on Nov. 7, which the White House cited as the reason.

“Why now,” after previously criticizing Acosta’s coverage, was the White House revoking Acosta’s press pass? Kelly asked Boutrous.

Boutrous recalled that Trump described Acosta as “rude” for refusing to hand over a microphone and yield to other reporters at last week’s press conference. “‘Rudeness’ is really a codeword for ‘I don’t like you being an aggressive reporter,’” said Boutrous, who was joined in court by a Gibson Dunn team including Theodore Olson, a partner at the firm and former solicitor general under the George W. Bush administration.

Justice Department attorney James Burnham defended the White House’s decision, saying the move was based on Acosta’s conduct and not content. He told Kelly: “A single journalist’s attempt to monopolize a press conference is not a viewpoint.” Burnham said CNN has about 50 other employees with so-called “hard passes” to access the White House. –law.com

Earlier this month while asking Trump about a northbound migrant caravan making its way to the southern US border, Acosta challenged Trump’s characterization of the group as an “invasion.”

Acosta asked “Why did you characterize it as such?” to which Trump replied “because I consider it an invasion. You and I have a difference of opinion.”

Do you think that you demonized immigrants?” Acosta shot back.

“Not at all, no – not at all,” Trump replied. “I want them to come into the country, but they have to come in legally. You know, they have to come in Jim through a process. And I want people to come in, and we need the people.”

Acosta then questioned Trump on an midterm advertisement showing “migrants climbing over walls and so-on,” to which Trump fired back: “They weren’t actors.”

After more barbs were exchanged between the two, Trump said: “Honestly, I think you should let me run the country, you run CNN, and if you did it well, your ratings would be much better.” 

Acosta then refused to sit down, leading to a standoff in which a White House aide tried to take his microphone.

Acosta’s press pass was pulled shortly thereafter, while controversy erupted over whether or not White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders had released a doctored version of a video showing Acosta brushing a White House aide’s arm away.

Jim Acosta

@Acosta

I’ve just been denied entrance to the WH. Secret Service just informed me I cannot enter the WH grounds for my 8pm hit

end

OH!! THIS IS GOOD. Judge Sullivan has ordered Hillary to answer additional questions under oath about her private email server.  This is an action brought on by judicial watch

(courtesy zerohedge)

Hillary Clinton Ordered To Answer Additional

Questions Under Oath About Private Email Server

A federal judge has ordered Hillary Clinton to respond to further questions, under oath, about her private email server.

Following a lengthy Wednesday court hearing, Judge Emmet G. Sullivan (who is also presiding over fmr. National Security adviser Michael Flynn’s case), ruled that Clinton has 30 days to answer two additional questions about her controversial email system in response to a lawsuit from Judicial Watch.

Hillary must answer the following questions by December 17 (via Judicial Watch)

  • Describe the creation of the clintonemail.com system, including who decided to create the system, the date it was decided to create the system, why it was created, who set it up, and when it became operational.
  • During your October 22, 2015 appearance before the U.S. House of Representatives Select Committee on Benghazi,you testified that 90 to 95 percent of your emails “were in the State’s system” and “if they wanted to see them, they would certainly have been able to do so.” Identify the basis for this statement, including all facts on which you relied in support of the statement, how and when you became aware of these facts, and, if you were made aware of these facts by or through another person, identify the person who made you aware of these facts.

Sillivan rejected Clinton’s assertion of attorney-client privilege on the question over emails “in the State’s system,” however he did give Clinton a few victories:

The court refused Judicial Watch’s and media’s requests to unseal the deposition videos of Huma Abedin, Cheryl Mills and other Clinton State Department officials. And it upheld Clinton’s objections to answering a question about why she refused to stop using her Blackberry despite warnings from State Department security personnel. Justice Department lawyers for the State Department defended Clinton’s refusal to answer certain questions and argued for the continued secrecy of the deposition videos. –Judicial Watch

Wednesday’s decision is the latest twist in a Judicial Watch Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit targeting former Clinton deputy chief of staff, Huma Abedin. The case seeks records which authorized Abedin to conduct outside employment while also employed by the Department of State.

“A federal court ordered Hillary Clinton to answer more questions about her illicit email system – which is good news,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton. “It is shameful that Judicial Watch attorneys must continue to battle the State and Justice Departments, which still defend Hillary Clinton, for basic answers to our questions about Clinton’s email misconduct.”

end

This should be interesting:  Comey and Lynch are to receive subpoenas from the House Judiciary committee.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Comey, Lynch To Receive Subpoenas From House GOP

The GOP-led House Judiciary committee will issue subpoenas to former FBI Director James Comey and former Obama Attorney General Loretta Lynch, according to Bloomberg and CNN‘s Manu Raju.

The subpoenas will reportedly be issued on November 29 and December 5, while the GOP says they would prefer them to meet in private but are open to public testimony.

Manu Raju

@mkraju

New: GOP-led House Judiciary, in its final days in power, is planning to issue subpoenas to former FBI Director James Comey and President Obama’s attorney general, Loretta Lynch – on Nov. 29 and Dec. 5. GOP wants them in private setting, though they’ve said they would publicly

552 people are talking about this

News of the subpoenaes rattled ranking Democrat Jerry Nadler (D-NY), who is expected to chair the panel next year.

“These subpoenas are coming out of the blue, with very little time left on the calendar,” Nadler said in a statement, noting that Lynch and Comey had indicated “months ago” that they were willing to answer questions voluntarily.

Comey and Lynch were under threat of subpoena earlier this year by Sen. Chuck Grassley, Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee (R-IA), only to be blocked by the panel’s top Democrat, Dianne Feinstein of California.

In June, the Department of Justice’s internal watchdog, the Inspector General, found that Comey defied authority several times while he was director of the FBI, including using personal email (Gmail) for official business.

The former FBI Director has also come under fire for mishandling classified information when he leaked an internal memo to the press documenting what he felt was President Trump obstructing the FBI’s probe into former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn – which was conducted by the FBI under dubious circumstances, and for which evidence may have been tampered with. Comey’s memo was a key component in Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein’s decision to launch a special counsel investigation headed by former FBI Director Robert Mueller.

In addition, Comey was head of the FBI during a multi-agency counterintelligence operation against the Trump campagin in which campaign aides were spied on and misled by FBI/DOJ agents.

Loretta Lynch, on the other hand, was dinged in the IG report over an “ambiguous” incomplete recusal from the Clinton email “matter” despite a clandestine 30-minute “tarmac” meeting with Bill Clinton one week beforethe FBI exonerated Hillary Clinton.

Developin

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES/ COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

Brexit turmoil felled stocks early on Thursday, thwarting the designs of expiry manipulators.
Pound Falls Most Since 2017 as U.K.’s May Faces Political Crisis
  • Raab steps down, while Rees-Mogg demands confidence vote
  • Money markets price out a central bank rate increase next year
Sterling slid the most in more than 17 months after ministers including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey quit May’s top team, while Brexiteer Jacob Rees Mogg called for a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister…
@LeaveEUOfficial: @Nigel_Farage: “Tonight, I’m more optimistic. I’m seeing the resignations. I think we’re getting close to the end of the worst and most duplicitous prime minister in British history and that will give us the chance of a fresh start.”
[Atlanta] Fed’s Bostic says interest rates are ‘not too far’ from neutral
Bostic expressed concerns about global growth and fading fiscal stimulus in the U.S…
SWAMP/KING
Rumors that Mueller is coercing witnesses to craft testimony against Don Trump Jr. enraged DJT.
@Gingrich_of_PA: Solid sources indicate that Mueller is very frustrated that Manafort won’t corroborate a lie he was told by Michael Cohen to ensnare Don Jr. & is threatening to pull sentencing agreement. Lawyers call this coercion. But Mueller doesn’t care, he only wants indictments
@realDonaldTrump: The inner workings of the Mueller investigation are a total mess. They have found no collusion and have gone absolutely nuts. They are screaming and shouting at people, horribly threatening them to come up with the answers they want.They are a disgrace to our Nation
   Universities will someday study what highly conflicted (and NOT Senate approved)Bob Mueller and his gang of Democrat thugs have done to destroy peopleWhy is he protecting Crooked Hillary, Comey, McCabe, Lisa Page & her lover, Peter S, and all of his friends on the other side? The only “Collusion” is that of the Democrats with Russia and many others. Why didn’t the FBI take the Server from the DNC? They still don’t have it. Check out how biased Facebook, Google and Twitter are in favor of the Democrats. That’s the real Collusion!
It is time to end the political and prosecutorial intrigue and present the evidence.  Is there collusion or not?  Is there a Deep State conspiracy to frame DJT and others?  Did Team Obama illegally spy on Americans?
WaPo: More chaos in Florida recount: With U.S. Senate race still undecided, one county [Palm Beach] says it probably won’t finish recounts on time
Palm Beach County ‘Missing Votes’ in ‘Dozens of Precincts,’ Unlikely to Meet Deadline
Florida Dems planned to use altered forms to fix mail ballots across state after deadline
An email obtained by the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida shows that Florida Democrats were organizing a broader statewide effort beyond those counties to give voters the altered forms to fix improper absentee ballots after the Nov. 5 deadline…
     One Palm Beach Democrat said in an interview the idea was to have voters fix and submit as many absentee ballots as possible with the altered forms in hopes of later including them in vote totals if a judge ruled such ballots were allowed
Democrat Wins Congressional Election in Maine after Algorithm Decides Race
Laura Ingraham: If election chaos [euphemism] isn’t cleaned up, the GOP can kiss 2020 goodbye
NY Governor Cuomo is defending his sweetheart deal with Amazon by invoking New York’s high taxes.  You can’t make this up!!!
NYT: Gov. Andrew Cuomo defended the [Amazon] deal, arguing that New York has to offer incentives because of its comparatively high taxes… [Sweetheart deals for big companies anger small biz.]
@mitchellvii: Nearly 75 percent of U.S. voters in the midterms say they support mandatory E-Verify to prevent illegal immigration. This includes nearly 55 percent of Democrats, more than 90 percent of Republicans, and nearly 80 percent of Independent voters who support mandatory E-Verify.
Despite the public opinion cited above, the effete GOP leadership wouldn’t tackle immigration reform.  They didn’t want to offend their Establishment puppet masters.
END
I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON MONDAY IF ALL GOES WELL
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