NOV 15/GOLD UP $5.35 TO $1214.65/SILVER IS UP 21 CENTS TO 14.31/JAPAN CONTRACTS IN GDP FOR THE 3RD QUARTER AND THUS TWO OF THE LAST 3 QUARTERS/KYLE BASS DOUBLES DOWN ON HIS SHORT CHINA BET/PG AND E IMPLODING/

I HAVE BEEN OUT OF COMMISSION FOR THE MOST PART OF THE DAY

 

SO I MISSED QUITE A FEW STORIES

 

I HAVE RETRIEVED ALL THE DATA SO IT IS UP TO DATE.

 

H.

 

 

 

GOLD: $1214.65 UP  $5.35 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.31 UP 21` CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1214.30

 

silver: $14.31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  205  for 20500 OZ  (0.6376 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

nil OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1404 for 7.020,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $5643: down  $291

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $5725  down 211 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY  A TINY 26 CONTRACTS FROM 224,346 UP TO  224,372  WITH YESTERDAY’S 10 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  4195 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 4195 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4195 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 4195 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 20.98 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 10 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 7,035,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 33,047 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 33,047 CONTRACTS) OR 165.23 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 3004 CONTRACTS OR 15.02 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  165.23 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 23.57% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,591.32    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 26 WITH THE 10 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4195 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 4221 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 4195 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 26 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THUS  STRONG  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 10 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.10 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH  IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.05 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW  7.035 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.059 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT 7.035 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 3593 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 535,927 DESPITE THE STRONG GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A RISE IN PRICE OF $8.15).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7875 CONTRACTS:

 

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 7875 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 538.899. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED RISE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7254 CONTRACTS:  3593 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7875 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 4282 CONTRACTS OR 428,200 OZ = 13.31 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A  RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $8.15.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7804 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 85,635 CONTRACTS OR 8,583,500 OZ OR 266.96 TONNES (11 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7776 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 266.96 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 266.96/2550 x 100% TONNES =  10.46% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,476.29  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3593 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($8.15) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7875 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7875 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC RISE OF 25,940 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7875 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3593 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 13.31 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $8.15 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX????.

 

 

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $5.35 TODAY: / 

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   761.16 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 761.16 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY

 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY 26 CONTRACTS from 224.346 UP TO 224.372  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

4195 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4195 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 26 CONTRACTS TO THE 4195 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG NET GAIN OF 4221 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 21.10 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW 7.035 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 10 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 4195 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 35.93POINTS OR 1.36% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 448.91 POINTS OR 1.75% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 42.86 OR 0.20%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.05%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9395 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 56.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.53 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9395AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9354: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCE

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan now records it’s second decline in GDP in the last 3 reporting periods.  QE is having no effect on its economy.  The entire globe is now proving to a trainwreck in too many places.  If you want to see what will happen in the USA and Europe, just take a close look at the results inside Japan

 

(courtesy Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

3 C/  CHINA

i)The yuan barely moves as China sends trump a written response to trade reforms but offers insufficient concessions

( zerohedge)

ii)Kyle Bass doubles down on his yuan short and states that he expects a Chinese reset in the next couple of years

( zerohedge)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

Brexiteer leader Moog demands a no confidence vote.  Britain is in chaos this morning. Domenic Raab, key cabinet figure resigns.

(  zerohedge)

ii)ITALY
Italian yields spreads spike to 3.15% (italian 10 yr/10 year German bund) after a Salvini advisor, Borghi warns that if the League has a majority in government, they will leave the EU.  A spread fo 4% will cause the massive bank run as citizens bail.
( zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

I) Saudi Arabia

Five Saudis face the death penalty over the Khashoggi killing.  So far the Crown Prince has been cleared..

( zerohedge)

ii)TURKEY/USA

In order to appease Erdogan, the White House is thinking about kicking out Gulen from the USA…the Lira surges
(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

More evidence of a global slowdown: the world’s largest shipper Maersk has sounded the alarm bell on a global slowdown.  They label the trade war as a catalyst for the slowdown

( zerohedge)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)The Times of India is celebrating the central bank’s decision to buy gold along with its citizens and as such they are selling USA treasuries.

( Times of India/GATA)

ii)Yes, what a world:  the hoarder of gold coins in Iran has been hanged along with his assistant( Bloomberg/GATA)

iii)Craig Hemke is calling gold to rise as the shorts are squeezed.  Let us see if he is right

( Craig Hemke/GATA)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

P G and E imploding

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)Market data/

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)The power of the Fed

a great read…

( Brandon Smith/Alt Market.com

b)This will definitely slow the housing market as mortgage rates climb closer to 6%

(courtesy Wolf Richter/WolfStreet)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Avenatti arrested for hitting a woman.  He feels he will be fully exonerated

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3593 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 535.927 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($8.15 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7875 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  7875 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7875 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  4282 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7875 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE 3593 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4282 contracts OR 428200 OZ OR 13.31 TONNES.

 

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 6 notices standing so we LOST 1 contracts. We had 1 notices served YESTERDAY so we gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz of gold will stand for gold at the comex and these guys refused to morphed into London based forwards as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus for the trouble.

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 6892 contracts  to 320,253 contracts.  January saw a  RISE TO 3848 FOR A GAIN OF 53 CONTRACTS.  February gained 2689 contracts to stand at 149,323 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR NIL OZ.

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI rose BY 26 CONTRACTS FROM 219,949 UP TO 224.373 (AND CLOSER THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 10 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED 4195 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 4195 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 4195.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 4966 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  4397 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 4195 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   4221 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS VERY STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 10 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 3 notices  standing for a loss of 3 contacts.  We had 3 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 0 contracts or an additional nil oz will  stand for delivery as these longs refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as not accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts. 

 

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we LOST 2063 contracts DOWN to 136.863.  January saw a loss of 125 contracts up to 1121 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 1495 contracts  up to 65,186.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 256,137 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  306,349  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 15-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

2188,98

 

oz

Delaware

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
5 contracts
(500 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
205 notices
20500 OZ
0.6376 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 1 customer deposit
i) into Delaware:  2188.98 oz
total customer deposits 2188.98 oz
we had 0  adjustments..

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (205) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (6 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 21,100 OZ OR 0.6562 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (205 x 100 oz)  + {6)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0x 100 oz )which equals 21100 oz standing OR 0.6562 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD DID RETURN AS THE DEALERS QUEUE JUMPING OBTAINING GOLD AS THEY TRY AND PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.001 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.6562 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  138,146.468 oz or   4.001 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,023,872.749 oz 249.57 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 15, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 NILoz

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
(15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1404 contracts

(7,020,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.67% of all official comex silver. (151.7 million/293.9 million)

ii)Into  everybody else:  zero

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil oz

we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: NIL oz

 

we had 1 adjustment and all adjusted out of the dealer and into the customer:

 

iii) Out of Scotia:  155,657.940 oz

 

 

total dealer silver:  80.0688 million

total dealer + customer silver:  293,019  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1404 x 5,000 oz = 7,020,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (3) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 1404(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 3) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 7,035,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver. We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL OZ will  stand at the comex as these longs refused to accept a London based forwards as well as negating the right to receive a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 107,249CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 107,464 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 107.464 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 537 million OZ  76.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -4.76% (NOV 13/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -2.19% to NAV (NOV 13/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.76%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.23/TRADING 11.60/DISCOUNT 4.80

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.60″ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONNES

NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.80 A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.29 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.06 TONNES

NOV 1/: 2 TRANSACTIONS:WITH GOLD UP $23.85,A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES OF GOLD TO PAY FOR FEES, INSURANCE AND STORAGE: INVENTORY AT THE GLD RESTS AT 754.06 TONNES THEN A DEPOSIT OF 6.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.82

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 15.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 761.16 tonnes

*IN LAST 497 TRADING DAYS: 173.99 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 397 TRADING DAYS: A NET 13.69 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

NOV 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 281,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.

NOV 7: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.320 MILLION OZ/

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN  18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

 

 

NOV 15/2018:

 

Inventory 324.456 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

SMALL JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY./

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.36/ and libor 6 month duration 2.86

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .50

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.66%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.13

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.47

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

Pound Falls 2.5% Against Gold as UK Government in Turmoil Over Brexit

The pound plunged against the euro, the dollar, gold and all leading currencies today as Theresa May’s UK government appeared vulnerable to collapsing and political turmoil risked creating a hard Brexit.


Gold in GBP (24 Hours)

The pound has fallen 2.6% against gold in less than twenty four hours seeing gold rise from £923 to £947 per ounce in sterling terms.

The pound slumped the most in more than 17 months as several U.K. ministers resigned less than 24 hours after Prime Minister Theresa May said she had won cabinet approval for a deal with the European Union.

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab handed in his resignation to Theresa May over the controversial Brexit proposal.

Mr Raab said he could not support the Prime Minister’s withdrawal agreement from the European Union. He wrote: “It has been an honour to serve in your government as Justice Minister, Housing Minister and Brexit Secretary. I regret to say that following the Cabinet meeting yesterday on the Brexit deal I must resign.”

Financial analysts are concerned about the more ‘extreme’ outcomes to Brexit talks and that potential worst case Brexit risks may now come about.

This makes the pound vulnerable to further falls into year end and in 2019. Longer term, the pound is likely to weaken further as Brexit uncertainty and fallout impacts the slowing UK high street, prperty market and wider economy.

Gold’s record nominal high in sterling terms over £1,120 per ounce looks like being surpassed in 2019 with gold prices just 20% below that now.

 

News and Commentary

Pound Falls Most Since 2017 as May’s Brexit Divorce Plan Rocked (Bloomberg.com)

Crude’s Collapse Is Sending Shockwaves Across Global Markets (Bloomberg.com)

Gold prices hold steady as dollar eases (Reuters.com)

Paulson keeps stake in gold investments during third-quarter (Reuters.com)

Dow turns negative, giving up 200-point gain, as Apple rolls over (CNBC.com)

Gold: Rising gold price vindicates RBI’s investment plan (EconomicTimes)


Source: Bloomberg

Chaotic 2019 coming & gold will be the ‘best house in a bad neighborhood’ (MarketWatch.com)

Gold Spikes Back Above $1200, Silver Above $14 (ZeroHedge.com )

As Oil Plunges, Energy Junk Bonds Turn Dangerous — Again (GoldSeek.com)

At Some Point the Whole Thing Blows Up (Youtube.com)

Gold Re-Monetization Is Much Closer Than Many Realize (Palisade-Research.com)

Apple Enters Bear Market – Down Over $200 Billion From Record Highs (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

14 Nov: USD 1,201.45, GBP 927.04 & EUR 1,066.05 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 1,197.55, GBP 928.70 & EUR 1,066.18 per ounce
12 Nov: USD 1,207.05, GBP 940.05 & EUR 1,072.34 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 1,219.05, GBP 936.96 & EUR 1,075.81 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 1,223.45, GBP 932.02 & EUR 1,071.01 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 1,235.05, GBP 938.64 & EUR 1,074.62 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

14 Nov: USD 13.97, GBP 10.80 & EUR 12.39 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 14.02, GBP 10.85 & EUR 12.46 per ounce
12 Nov: USD 14.16, GBP 11.00 & EUR 12.57 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 14.34, GBP 11.01 & EUR 12.63 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 14.49, GBP 11.06 & EUR 12.70 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 14.67, GBP 11.15 & EUR 12.77 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– GoldCore Capitalising On Brexit With Dublin Gold Vault
– Store Gold In The Safest Vaults In Ireland
– Investors Set To Store Gold In Dublin Due To Brexit Risks
– Investors Start Buying Gold ETFs In October In Bullish Shift
– As Brexit Looms and Stocks Plunge In October – Now May Be The Time to Invest in Gold
– AMERICAN ELECTIONS FARCE AS POLITICIANS IGNORE THE LOOMING $121.7 TRILLION DEBT CRISIS
– Gold ETFs See Strong Demand In Volatile October After Robust Global Gold Demand In Q3
– Venezuela Seeks To Repatriate $550 Million Of Gold From London
– Big Short’s Eisman Is Shorting Two U.K. Banks on Brexit
– “Red October” Highlights Importance of Rebalancing Portfolios and Gold’s “Very Positive” Outlook
– Alarm Bells Ring and Gold Rises In October As Stocks and Property Fall Globally
– Gold Analysts At LBMA See 25% Return To $1,532/oz In 12 months
– Gold Improves Investment, Pension and Central Bank Portfolio’s Risk-Adjusted Returns

GoldCore Secure Storage Ireland – Information and Introduction Video Here

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 

 

 

NOV 14

ii) GATA stories
The Times of India is celebrating the central bank’s decision to buy gold along with its citizens and as such they are selling USA treasuries.
(courtesy Times of India/GATA)

Times of India celebrates central bank’s buying gold, selling treasuries

 Section: 

Rising Gold Price Vindicates RBI’s Investment Plan

By Gayatri Nayak
The Times of India, Mumbai
Monday, November 12, 2018

MUMBAI — The Reserve Bank of India’s gold purchase plan seems to be paying off as the monthly valuation gains have touched an eight-month high with investor demand for a safe haven rallying the yellow metal.

The value of gold in the country’s foreign exchange reserves rose 1.7 percent in three weeks from October 12 to November 2 at $20.9 billion. Gold prices rose 2 percent during the same period.

 

India’s reserves are at $393 billion and gold comprises about 5 percent of the total reserves. ...

With currency markets turning volatile since December after the U.S. Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, which caused foreign investors to pull out their funds from the emerging markets including India, the Reserve Bank, like many other central banks, started buying gold as a hedge against volatile currency markets.

It was for the first time in nine years that the RBI was buying gold. It has bought 9.5 lakh troy ounces of gold since December 2017. …

RBI has already sold close to $17 billion worth of U.S. treasury securities between April and August, data with the U.S. Treasury Department showed. This could help the central bank rein in mark-to-market losses.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/rising-gol…

END

Yes, what a world:  the hoarder of gold coins in Iran has been hanged along with his assistant

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

What a world: ‘Sultan of Coins’ is hanged but Jamie Dimon and Blythe Masters live

 Section: 

Iran Hangs Gold Coin ‘Sultan’ in Crackdown After U.S. Sanctions

By Ladane Nasseri
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Iran executed a gold dealer known as the “Sultan of Coins” in a warning to merchants not to exploit the country’s financial troubles as U.S. sanctions squeeze the economy.

Vahid Mazloumin was sentenced to death in October after being accused by Iranian authorities of contributing to price hikes by hoarding gold. His assistant, Mohammad Esmail Qassemi, was also hanged early today, state-run Iranian Students News Agency said.

The very specter of sanctions, even before they were resumed in August, plunged the Iranian currency market into turmoil and sent the rial plummeting about 70 percent against the dollar, fueling a surge in prices and encouraging illegal trading.

Mazloumin didn’t hold a permit to trade gold and foreign currency, yet had formed the largest illegal network in that area, according to state-run Fars news agency. He instructed his team to corner the gold coin market to resell at higher prices, amassing about 2 tons of them, local media said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/as-sanctions-hit-iran…

END

Craig Hemke is calling gold to rise as the shorts are squeezed.  Let us see if he is right

(courtesy Craig Hemke/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Here comes another squeeze of gold shorts

 Section: 

3:47p ET Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Having lured fund managers into shorting gold futures by pushing the price below the 50-day moving average, bullion banks are about to trigger a short squeeze by yanking the price up again, according to the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing at Sprott Money.

Hemke writes: “As with each of the past four years, we expect a year-end rally in Comex gold that extends into January. Whether or not this next spec short squeeze sets off that rally will be a function of timing. We’ll wait to see how it plays out. In the meantime, what’s important is that you know it’s coming and can take action to plan and prepare.”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Another Gold Spec Short Squeeze Pending” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/another-gold-spec-short-squeeze-pending…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org




iii) Other Physical stories

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.9395/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9354   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 35.93POINTS OR 1.36%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 448.91 POINTS OR 1.75%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 42.86POINTS OR 0.20%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 97.11/Euro FALLS TO 1.1318

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.60/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.26 and Brent: 66.53

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE:  UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.37%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.49% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.63%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 3.12: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.55

3k Gold at $1209.75 silver at:14.13   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 42/100 in roubles/dollar) 67.64

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.46DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0052 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1367 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.37%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.10% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.35%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3959

Global Rally Shattered, Europe Slides As Brexit Turmoil Returns

US futures pared earlier gains, European stocks slumped and the pound tumbled after the Brexit crisis returned with a bang to the forefront after a series of British ministers quit in protest at Theresa May’s Brexit deal, plunging the U.K. government into crisis and sparking fresh fears about a May ouster and a hard Brexit.

Today’s turmoil started around 4am ET when Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab announced his resignation on Twitter, the highest profile of several departures on Thursday morning. “No democratic nation has ever signed up to be bound by such an extensive regime, imposed externally without any democratic control over the laws to be applied, nor the ability to decide to exit the arrangement,” he said in his resignation letter. His, and subsequent resignations, threw into doubt May’s ability to secure Parliament’s support for her plan and even to survive as leader.

Dominic Raab

@DominicRaab

Today, I have resigned as Brexit Secretary. I cannot in good conscience support the terms proposed for our deal with the EU. Here is my letter to the PM explaining my reasons, and my enduring respect for her.

1

The pound, which rebounded strongly on Wednesday after May announced she had won cabinet support for the withdrawal draft, tumbled 3 big figures almost instantly on the news, dropping as much as 1.9%, its biggest plunge since 2017.

GBP

“The reaction is sterling shows that the chance of no Brexit deal has spiked,” said Tim Graf, Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA at State Street Global Markets. “It also introduces thoughts of a leadership challenge (for British Prime Minister Theresa May) which seems likely now.”

While the prime minister defended her plan as the only way to protect the union of the U.K when addressing law makers in the House of Commons, the renewed threat that May could be replaced and Britain could crash out of the EU with no deal is an unpredictable and high-risk scenario for markets. As the resignations rolled in, the FTSE 100 Index trimmed gains as trading volumes soared to double the 30-day average while gilts surged. European stocks, which started the session in the green, pared all gains and dropped to yesterday’s lows, down 0.4%.

“The truth is no one can accurately predict how this will play over the next few days and weeks,” said Epworth Investment Management Chief Investment Officer Stephen Beer. “However, in some important respects, nothing has changed since the referendum. It remains the case that Brexit is likely to be economically worse for the U.K. than remaining in the European Union. What we have now is more people realizing that.”

S&P 500 had been solidly up before they pared much of their advance, although they have since rebounded to near session highs once more. The yen rose, and gold and the Swiss franc were steady, suggesting the market was not too concerned by the latest Brexit turmoil.

The S&P 500 had fallen for a fifth straight day overnight, with financial stocks hit by fears of tighter regulations once the Democratic Party takes control of the House of Representatives. U.S. stocks were also pressured by concerns that earnings growth might be peaking, trade tensions and a slowing global economy – factors that had triggered a rout in riskier assets in October.

The European turmoil followed a relatively calm Asian session with the MSCI Asia index rising 0.8%, as Hong Kong shares jumped after Tencent earnings beat expectations while Chinese equities rose 1.4%, cheering news that China and the United States were back in contact about their bitter trade disputeas after a report that Chinese officials had sent a letter to the White House outlining a series of potential concessions to the Trump administration, despite subsequent reports that the offering by China was insufficient to meet Trump’s demands. Japanese stocks edged lower while the Australian dollar jumped after a strong local jobs report.

There was some good news overnight: in a closely watched question-and-answer session late on Wednesday Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell played down recent turbulence in equities, saying volatility was only one of many factors that the Fed takes into account. Then again, Powell’s admission confirmed that the Fed put is hundreds of points lower than the S&P’s latest price, which likely means that stocks have a long way to fall before Powell gets truly concerned about the Fed’s beloved “wealth effect.”

UK turmoil also boosted demand for safe-haven German government bonds. Ten-year Bund yields fell over three basis points to 0.36 percent, the lowest in over two weeks.

“While it’s difficult to pin-point a specific event for the risk-off move, recent themes appear to be keeping markets cautious include oil’s recent plummet, Apple’s fall, U.S. political gridlock, China’s slowing growth, tightening liquidity, a hawkish Fed, earnings peak, Italian jitters, and Brexit uncertainty,” wrote economists at ANZ.

Elsewhere, West Texas crude resumed its slide following Wednesday’s rebound from a record losing streak. Emerging-market shares rallied and their currencies strengthened.

“If U.S. stocks are to bounce back, economic indicators will be key,” said Junichi Ishikawa, senior forex strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo. “Focus will be on today’s U.S. retail sales data, which will provide a view of how private consumption -the main component of economic growth- is faring.” U.S. retail sales for October will be released today at 830am ET.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,696.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 361.05
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 151.53
  • MXAPJ up 1.2% to 485.20
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 21,803.62
  • Topix down 0.1% to 1,638.97
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 26,103.34
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 2,668.17
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 35,317.74
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.06% to 5,736.02
  • Kospi up 1% to 2,088.06
  • German 10Y yield fell 3.9 bps to 0.359%
  • Euro up 0.09% to $1.1320
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 4.3 bps to 3.117%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.8 bps to 1.646%
  • Brent futures little changed at $66.12/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,210.57
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.6% to 97.34

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Prime Minister Theresa May is fighting for her political life as a growing revolt from within her own party threatens to derail her Brexit plans and force the U.K. out of the European Union with no deal
  • Chinese officials have outlined a series of potential concessions to the Trump administration for the first time since the summer as they continue to try to resolve a trade war, according to three people familiar with the discussions
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy is strong but could face headwinds next year as policy makers weigh how far and fast to raise interest rates
  • Apple’s outlook dims as suppliers worldwide sound the alarm, with Austrian-based AMS AG the latest to sound the alarm
  • A Saudi royal adviser and a senior intelligence official played key roles in the mission that ultimately led to the killing of government critic Jamal Khashoggi and authorities will seek the death penalty for five people who confessed to the murder

Asian equity markets were eventually mostly higher after the region gradually shrugged off the cautious lead from the losses stateside, where weakness in tech and financials saw all US majors finish in the red. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) were lower throughout most the session as financials lagged although the Australian benchmark staged a late rebound and just about turned positive at the close, while sentiment in Tokyo remained pressured by a firmer currency and as blue-chip banking stocks declined post-earnings. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.4%) weathered a choppy start as outperformance in tech kept Chinese markets afloat after a beat on earnings from Hong Kong index-giant and China’s largest tech firm Tencent Holdings. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with only minimal support seen despite the losses in Tokyo stocks and with price  action also muted following mixed results in today’s 5yr JGB auction. China’s government is said to have sent a written response to the US concerning trade reforms, which reports noted offered insufficient concessions.

Top Asian News

  • Tencent-Backed Fashion Site Is Said to Halve IPO Valuation Goal
  • Tencent’s Big Beat Falls Flat With Analysts Pining for New Games
  • Takeda Offers Mega-Euro Bond Amid Renewed Brexit Upheavals
  • Philippines Delivers Fifth Rate Hike to Curb Inflation

European indices are mixed, with the FTSE MIB (-0.5%) lagging alongside broad underperformance in Italian assets. Furthermore, Prysmian (-4.3%) have also weighed on the index after a guidance cut and STMicroelectronics (-2.5%) are lower in sympathy with AMS (-1.3%) who cut guidance pre-market. FTSE 100 (+0.1%) is bucking the trend as recent Brexit updates are weighing on Cable. However, upside for the index is being capped by losses in RBS (-7.3%) and Barclays (-6.0%) in the wake of the rate implications of today’s Brexit turmoil. Elsewhere, Antofagasta (+2.1%) are lower following board approval of expansion to the Los Pelambres copper mine. In contrast Royal Mail (-5.2%) are in the red after reporting lower half year pre-tax profit.

Top European News

  • Raab Resignation Means Higher Risk Brexit Deal Fails: Nordea
  • Pound Could Fall to $1.25 After Raab, Says Mizuho’s Jones
  • Raab Resignation Signals Parliament Vote Challenge: Danske
  • Soubry: Raab’s Resignation Marks End of PM’s Withdrawal Pact
  • In Brexit Brinkmanship, Europe Was Always Going to Be The Winner
  • European Car Sales Slump Again, Testing VW’s Upbeat Outlook
  • Four Weeks That Will Determine Fate of the ECB’s Bond Buying

In FX, all eyes were on GBP as the Post-UK Cabinet approval of the withdrawal draft has been extremely short-lived, as Brexit Minister Raab resigned due to reservations over the proposal, followed by McVey (Work and Pensions Secretary and other not as high profile (so far) Government officials. Significantly weaker than forecast retail sales data merely compounded the misery for Sterling, but probably won’t be the final straw amidst reports of more MPs and aides considering their position and an official leadership challenge against PM May. Cable collapsed from 1.3000+ through 1.2900 and the recent 1.2828 low to circa 1.2750 at one stage, with only the November base at 1.2696 protecting the ytd trough (1.2662) aside from any psychological or sentimental support at 1.2700. Meanwhile, Eur/Gbp rallied from around 0.8700 to 0.8845, breaching some interim chart resistance at 0.8766 on the way, and without much effort, before partially retracing. EUR – Although the single currency is benefiting from the Gbp’s demise, it has lost ground vs the Usd after running into offers at 1.1350, but is holding in well above recent lows not far from 1.1200 and may be relatively contained by hefty option expiries at 1.1300 and 112.50-60 in 1.5 bn and 1.6 bn respectively. AUD – The clear G10 outperformer and retaining the bulk of its overnight gains vs the Greenback on the back of an upbeat Aussie jobs report – Aud/Usd currently around 0.7260 within a 0.7300-0.7230 range, and with the Aud/NZD cross back above 1.0650 as the Kiwi pivots 0.6800 against the Usd. DXY – The Dollar is mixed vs major counterparts and broadly weaker against EM currency, but the index has rebounded firmly above 97.000, largely due to the aforementioned Pound rout and knock-on effects.

In commodities, gold (+0.9%) prices have extended gains above USD 1200/oz as the dollar continues to fall from the 16-month highs that were reached at the start of the week. Separately, copper has been boosted following China sending a written response to US trade reforms, although it has been noted that it offers insufficient concessions. Brent (-0.1%) and WTI (-0.2%) initially traded higher, and were mostly unaffected by the larger than expected build in API inventory. but have since reverted into negative territory following the dollar beginning to strengthen again. Of note reports that Russia have cut oil output to 11.38mln BPD for the first two weeks of November. Markets will be looking ahead to the EIA weekly data later today.

As for today’s calendar,the highlight is the October retail sales report which will be a first look for forecasters into Q4 consumer spending. The consensus is for a +0.5% mom headline reading, and +0.4% readings for the core and control group components – the latter of course important as it’s a direct input into the BEA’s estimate of consumers’ spending on goods in the GDP numbers. Away from that we’ll also get regional November manufacturing reports from the NY and Philly Fed’s, October import price index,  initial jobless claims, and September business inventories. Away from the data it’s another busy day for ECB speakers with Coeure, Praet and de Guindos due to speak. The Fed’s Quarles will also appear before the Senate, before Chair Powell speaks again – albeit on hurricane recovery efforts so it’s unlikely to be market sensitive – and Bostic and Kashkari speak tonight. Oh and there might be a few more Brexit headlines.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 20, prior 21.1
  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 20, prior 22.2
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.1%; Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.5%, prior -0.1%;
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior 0.0%; Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.5%; 8:30am: Import Price Index YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.5%
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.05%, prior 0.0%; 8:30am: Export Price Index YoY, prior 2.7%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 213,000, prior 214,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.63m, prior 1.62m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 61.3
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
  • 10am: Fed’s Quarles to Appear before Senate Banking Panel
  • 11:30am: Fed’s Powell Reviews Post-Hurricane Harvey Recovery Efforts
  • 1pm: Fed’s Bostic Speaks in Madrid
  • 3pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks to Minnesota AgriGrowth Council

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Before we get into Brexit, inflation, oil and the likes I’d like to ask the more experienced parents out there if your children have ever had a more insignificant part in a nativity play than my three year old Maisie has just been given. In her pre-school performance at Xmas she’s been cast as a “bell”. I’ll resist the urge to storm into school and ask why she’s not playing Mary.

The bells looked like they were tolling for PM May’s Brexit deal yesterday morning, as the initial political response to her withdrawal agreement proved to be quite negative and the pound shed as much as -0.73% at its intraday lows. However, May ended the day by again rising from the flames and securing Cabinet approval for her plan, and the pound ultimately rallied +0.16% on the day to just below $1.30 by the US close but traded between $1.2882 and $1.3072 during a turbulent session.

The pound did close off the immediate cabinet backing highs as PM May described the outcome as “collective agreement,” conspicuously avoiding the word “unanimous” in a possible acknowledgement of internal pushback. The government then released the almost 600-page withdrawal agreement, which will be scrutinised by MPs and the press over the coming days for any surprises. The Parliamentary arithmetic still looks quite dicey, and it’s noteworthy that Boris Johnson waited 48 hours after Chequers to resign, so PM May is certainly still exposed to further dissent/resignations from her cabinet in the hours and days ahead.

The good thing about Brexit is that most other things that are going on in markets right now feel fairly straightforward by comparison. Despite WTI oil finally snapping its unwanted record-breaking run of 12 consecutive daily declines with a rebound of +0.84% yesterday, US markets struggled once again yesterday with the NASDAQ leading the way with a -0.90% decline, followed closely by the S&P 500 (-0.76%) and DOW (-0.81%). Apple underperformed again, down -2.82% as investors continued to digest the news of reduced upstream demand from the company’s suppliers. That’s five trading sessions in a row that the S&P has dropped now which is the third worst run this year following the two six-day consecutive loss runs in October. We’ve now had 27 down days over the 39 trading days since the index peaked on September 20, the longest such streak since November 2008 amid the post-Lehman fallout.

Late last night we did have some non-Brexit related news when Fed Chair Powell spoke positively about the US economy and downplayed concerns about financial market volatility. He argued that the US economy can continue to grow and can even pick up pace in the future, though he did note some downside risks from fading fiscal stimulus, slower growth abroad, and any greater-than-expected impacts of rate hikes. Powell mentioned that credit spreads remain tight, suggesting that it will take broader risk-off price action in markets to affect his reasoning than just an equity selloff. Finally, he asserted that all meetings will be “live” moving forward, since they will now all be accompanied by press conferences.

This morning in Asia, markets are off to a mixed start with the Nikkei (-0.50%) down while the Hang Seng (+0.61%), Shanghai Comp (+0.68%) and Kospi (+0.10%) are all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.17%) are pointing towards a slightly negative start.

Credit markets are starting to get more and more attention of late especially in the US. Even Powell mentioned them last night – albeit in a positive light. As a reminder, our view has been that US HY has been far too expensive this year. Other indices have hit our targets, but HY has stubbornly held in. This week, the downgrade of GE has first rocked IG credit and then the significant re-pricing of oil has had an impact on HY energy bonds once again. Just to recap on US HY, in October we finally saw some cracks start to appear as spreads widened more than 70bps (tight to wide). Whilst the first week of November seemed to bring some reprieve to credit markets, the last few days have seen some further notable moves wider. USD HY has widened the best part of +40bps with HY energy more than +50bps wider. Both series are now at their wides for the year with USD HY now more than +30bps wider YTD. USD IG has widened nearly 10bps from the recent November tights and is up against their YTD wides. Similarly EUR IG and HY credit is now also at the wides for the year at around 45bps and 150bps wider respectively.

Back to markets yesterday, sentiment was actually initially positive at the open following a marginally dovish US CPI report (more on that below) but weakness soon followed and equity markets in Europe failed to hold onto an intraday recovery with the STOXX 600 finishing down -0.60% and DAX -0.52%. Bond markets were once again a sideshow with Treasuries (-1.8bps) and Bunds (-1.1bps) a touch stronger.

Talking of European equities our strategist Sebastian Raedler has published his 2019 market outlook this morning. He sees upside for the Euro area and China PMI over the coming months, implying tactical upside for the Stoxx 600 to 385 by Q1, 6% above current levels. However, from Q2 onwards, he sees renewed downside for the market as the Euro area real bond yield (i.e. the discount rate for European equities) starts rising on the back of a recovery in Euro area core inflation and the EUR appreciates in line with our FX strategists’ projections, leading the Stoxx 600 to fade to 345 by end-2019, 5% below current levels. See here for the report.

Moving on. It wouldn’t be a recap without mentioning Italy and it was interesting to hear DB’s Clemente De Lucia’s take on the letter Italy sent to Brussels late Tuesday which broadly confirmed the original version of the DBP. In Clemente’s view, the tone of the letter was tough suggesting that a compromise with Brussels is a long way from being reached. The new, higher levels of  planned privatisation is very unlikely to change the mind of the Commission. Such initiatives are very difficult to monitor and, in the past, Italy have missed their targets. As for where things stand now, a Eurogroup meeting is scheduled for December 3rd, which means we could see an EDP launched as soon as early next month. It could be an interesting final month of the year for politics in Europe with this and Brexit. The FTSE MIB closed down -0.78% yesterday and slightly underperformed the rest of Europe, while 2y and 10y BTPs rose +4.8bps and +4.5bps respectively. Talking of politics, our German experts last night published a piece on what Merkel succession race means for Europe. See here for more.

In other news, yesterday was a packed day for data although there wasn’t a huge amount to move the dial. In Germany, Q3 GDP came in slightly weaker than the downwardly revised forecast at -0.2% qoq. The first negative quarterly print since early 2015 is likely to be temporary though, with new car emissions tests disrupting car production. In France the final October CPI print was confirmed at +0.1% mom and unrevised versus the flash, while here in the UK, CPI missed to the downside slightly at +0.1% mom (vs. +0.2% expected) for the headline level, although the core did hold at +1.9% yoy as expected. Shortly after that euro area GDP for Q3 was confirmed at +0.2% qoq as expected.

Meanwhile, as mentioned above the October CPI report in the US was at the margin a tad disappointing in the context of a small rounding down in the annual rate for the core to +2.1% yoy from +2.2%. The six-month annualised reading is also now down to +1.95% which is food for thought for the Fed maybe. The October reading itself was confirmed at +0.2% mom as consensus expected (+0.1926% unrounded) with positive payback from used cars in particular.

As for today’s calendar, this morning in Europe we’ve got October retail sales data out in the UK first thing, followed later on by the September trade balance reading for the euro area. In the US the highlight is the October retail sales report which will be a first look for forecasters into Q4 consumer spending. The consensus is for a +0.5% mom headline reading, and +0.4% readings for the core and control group components – the latter of course important as it’s a direct input into the BEA’s estimate of consumers’ spending on goods in the GDP numbers.

Away from that we’ll also get regional November manufacturing reports from the NY and Philly Fed’s, October import price index,  initial jobless claims, and September business inventories. Away from the data it’s another busy day for ECB speakers with Coeure, Praet and de Guindos due to speak. The Fed’s Quarles will also appear before the Senate, before Chair Powell speaks again – albeit on hurricane recovery efforts so it’s unlikely to be market sensitive – and Bostic and Kashkari speak tonight. Oh and there might be a few more Brexit headlines.

 

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 35.93POINTS OR 1.36% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 448.91 POINTS OR 1.75% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 42.86 OR 0.20%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.05%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9395 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 56.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.53 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9395AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9354: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

Japan now records it’s second decline in GDP in the last 3 reporting periods.  QE is having no effect on its economy.  The entire globe is now proving to a trainwreck in too many places.  If you want to see what will happen in the USA and Europe, just take a close look at the results inside Japan

 

(courtesy Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

Alhambra: “This Year Is Proving To Be A Trainwreck In Too Many Important Places”

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

There was more than enough evidence that QE didn’t work fifteen years ago. The Japanese had accumulated these monetary experiments at the dawn of the 21st century. And there was even a time when US and Western central bankers were skeptical. What happened was 2008; a dislocation so big and widespread they had no choice but to embrace the failure for lack of any other options.

Once they did, what was most charitably ambiguous suddenly became genius. When the Japanese did these things, they were suspect; when Western central bankers did, they were awesome. Same planet, different worlds.

Only, the Japanese central bankers kept doing them, too. It’s much harder to hide in Japan than it has been in the United States or Europe. The decimated economic landscape there leaves little open to interpretation. This is not a positive comparison since Japan is merely our forerunner, a look into our future.

To begin with, the central bank is (largely) irrelevant. QE or QQE is nothing more than a series of tricks, smoke and mirrors glossed up to sound impressive and a little scientific (portfolio effects!) In reality, the world which we share with the impoverished (literally) Japanese, unfortunately, magic tricks can’t replace true economic processes. That’s why QE never worked to begin the millennium and it doesn’t now no matter how many additional letters and numbers are added to it.

The Bank of Japan, like Economists in the West, can’t admit it. They just can’t. To do so would mean to confess decades of incompetence and gross dereliction. It is a binary choice; we keep getting these non-answers until someone forces them to stop. They won’t do it voluntarily.

I wrote in April 2016, more than two wasted years ago:

Central banks have proven by their own actions, not their words, that they will only allow “their” recovery which in the end means none. As I have written before, if they were given a choice of maintaining power and control but only leading to more lost decades, or stepping aside and being guaranteed a full and sustainable recovery, they would choose the former every single time. True global economic recovery is purely a political action now; central banks will not restrain themselves no matter how much their schemes backfire and create only more disruption and havoc.

In Japan in 2018, the Bank of Japan forecasts:

Japan’s economy is likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential in fiscal 2018, mainly against the background of highly accommodative financial conditions and the underpinnings through government spending, with overseas economies continuing to grow firmly on the whole.

But instead that country’s Cabinet Office today reports that Japan’s economy isn’t growing at all, regardless of potential. The passage quoted above was prepared by the central bank at the end of October, meaning a full month after Q3 had ended. Japanese GDP in Q3? Minus 0.3%.

This is the second contracting quarter in the last three, meaning two out of the three so far in 2018. On a year-over-year basis, the economy has ground to a halt. It’s the timing of it that should be our global focus.

Japan’s economy peaked in Q3 2017. This had nothing whatsoever to do with monetary policy or even Japan specifically. That was the quarter when the eurodollar system began showing signs of distress. Japan, as Germany, is uniquely susceptible to trade disruptions; which is where turmoil churning within the global reserve currency system hits first.

Japan’s external slowdown predates any trade war concerns (by a lot). Growth in Final Sales of Domestic Product, for example, a GDP component that includes export sales, peaked in Q2 2017. It has been nearly flat over the last year, too.

QQE has been an utter disaster. Economic growth during its more than half decade run has actually been worse than the overall “recovery” as a whole from the 2009 trough.

The BoJ now practically owns companies and financial markets with what to show for it? GDP growth over the last five plus years since it started has been 0.9% per year compared to 1.5% since Q1 2009. Caught up in the mess are the regular Japanese citizens who are being stuck with the short end of the stick. And it’s not even close.

Since QQE, consumer spending growth has disappeared altogether. The opposite was supposed to happen, what with the inflation expectations supposedly attached to so much “money printing.”

This is because Japan’s economic fate has never been tied to the BoJ one way or another. Every single time the Japanese economy, meaning the global economy, begins to take a step forward (reflation) it doesn’t get very far for very long (eurodollar squeezes). The Japanese people, like Italians, Brazilians, or Americans, can sense these changes at the margins in a way that central bankers just aren’t capable (ideology).

It’s a total disaster not because QQE or the first QE in 2001 was the cause(s), rather by keeping the same ideological blindness in place nothing else is ever tried. There is never an honest search for answers. Central bankers can’t even admit there is a problem, even the obvious one for Japan in 2018.

The whole economic system rots for lack of imagination. And what Japan’s plight proves most of all is that it can go on and on far longer than you might otherwise think possible (a recovery has to happen at some point, right? NO.) It’s something out of Keynes; the economy can go without legitimate growth far longer than any peoples can remain rational.

For good measure, Destatis, Germany’s government bureau responsible for producing that country’s GDP estimates, also reports today a negative number for its last quarter (Q3). It is being dismissed as emissions and climate/weather, but Japan’s concurrent weakness shows otherwise. This is a growing global downturn.

This year is proving to be a trainwreck in too many important places. It was supposed to be the arrival of worldwide recovery. Worse, too many arrows are still pointing down for 2019. But you wouldn’t know it from the Bank of Japan, ECB, Federal Reserve, etc. Not until they are forced into some honest assessments for once.

What I wrote in 2016 still applies. There is plausible path back to full and complete recovery. It just has nothing to do with QE’s or even Economics, except the total purge of any thoughts about QE’s as well as to transform Economics back into economics (starting with monetary economics). It is purely political. And this is why populism becomes increasingly radical (in both directions, left and right) as all this economic pain goes unanswered each and every time.

 
END

3 C CHINA

The yuan barely moves as China sends trump a written response to trade reforms but offers insufficient concessions

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

China Sends Trump Written Response To Trade Reform Demands, Offers Insufficient Concessions

Ahead of the much-anticipated meeting between presidents Trump and Xi on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Argentina at the end of November during which hopes run high for at least a modest de-escalation of trade tensions, on Wednesday China delivered a written response to U.S. demands for wide-ranging trade reforms, a move which according to Reuters could trigger negotiations to bring an end to a withering trade war between the world’s top economies.

Reuters’ sources said that China had sent a written response to Trump’s demands on intellectual property theft, industrial subsidies, Chinese entry barriers to American businesses and the U.S. trade deficit with China, although it was unclear if the response contained concessions that would satisfy Trump’s demands for change.

For the actual contents of the letter, we have to go to Bloomberg which reports that the text “outlines a series of potential concessions to the Trump administration for the first time since the summer” as they continue to try to resolve a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

However, the commitments – for now – fall short of the type of major structural reforms that President Donald Trump has been demanding, “two of the sources said, cautioning that a long road lies ahead in negotiations. One person said that talks are continuing and constructive.”

Then again they can’t be that constructive because one of the sources said the letter “raised doubts” over how substantive a deal Trump could make with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping when the two leaders meet later this month.

Most of the document appeared to be a rehash of previous changes already made by Beijing, such as raising equity caps on foreign investment in certain industries, according to one person. It did not contain the sort of commitment to change industrial policies such as Xi’s “Made in China 2025” that Washington has been seeking, according to one person familiar with the discussions.

Two other people familiar with the talks also said the Chinese offer was a sign of what they characterized as constructive discussions between the two sides ahead of the planned G20 meeting between the two leaders.

Of course, if it was truly constructive, the Yuan would be surging, yet one look at the offshore currency, shows that the USDCNH has barely budged from its Tuesday closing price of 6.945, although it also remains well away from the key 7.00 level.

end
Kyle Bass doubles down on his yuan short and states that he expects a Chinese reset in the next couple of years
(courtesy zerohedge)

Kyle Bass Doubles-Down On Yuan Short, Calls For “China Reset”

Nearly 18 months after Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass declared that he intended to stand by his massive offshore yuan short even as his fund moved deep into the red (unlike all of those other “tourist China bears” who had jumped ship at the first stirrings of dollar weakness), the Dallas hedge fund manager revealed that he had finally broken even after his fund sunk 20% last year, according to Reuters.

Which means now is the perfect time to double down…

Bass

Bass, who has long argued that the yuan will slide 30% against the dollar as the country’s credit bubble bursts,told his audience that he has added to his currency short as the currency hovers just above the big round 7-to-the-dollar level. He also praised President Trump’s trade policies, which he said would be “100% healthy for the next 10 years”, though he clarified that he was “not a Trump voter” and that he would jump at the opportunity to throw his support behind Michael Bloomberg.

“Tariffs come and go,” Bass said.

“But how do you negotiate with someone…with the hopes that they would liberalize their economy and do the things they said they would do, and especially don’t do the things they said they wouldn’t do, and yet they’ve done everything exactly as they always have?”

Trump’s shortcomings, Bass said, include his tweeting and other means by which he communicates his message.

“‘Trade wars are good,’ that was an insane comment to say,” Bass said of Trump. “What he should have said is, ‘We’re going to reciprocate with China, where they’re going to let us into their markets, we’re going to let them into ours…’ His actions were proper, but his comments were improper.”

As corporate defaults soar, Bass believes that China is headed for a “reset” that he expects to arrive during “the next couple of years.”

He projected that China could lose more than $2.5 trillion of equity, more than triple the size of the U.S bank bailout during the 2008 financial crisis, and would have to print more than $25 trillion of renmimbi to counteract the impact of slowing economic growth and declining credit on its banks.

“It’s insane how levered this market has become,” Bass said.

“You’re starting to see bankruptcies across the board in China that are hard to hide, if you look at the corporate default rate, the bankruptcy rate, M1 and M2 (money supply), the slowest money growth in over four decades.”

“We’ll have a reset in China, and I think it will happen in the next couple of years,” Bass concluded.

Chinese companies are already feeling the impact of its slowing credit impulse…

Credit

…As defaults soar…

CHina

…And small- and medium-sized companies resort to ‘imaginative’ strategies for paying down their debt – including striking an agreement with creditors for a ‘payment in kind’ of ham

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Brexiteer leader Moog demands a no confidence vote.  Britain is in chaos this morning. Domenic Raab, key cabinet figure resigns.

(courtesy  zerohedge)

 

Brexiteer Leader Demands May ‘No Confidence’ Vote As Brexit Chaos Intensifies

Update VIII: Mogg’s “no confidence” letter is in…

Harry Cole

@MrHarryCole

MOGG LETTER IN – confirmed

…We now await further reports about a ‘no confidence’ vote that seems ‘almost inevitable’, though some reports suggest the ERG group of hardline Brexiteers is split on whether to call for a leadership challenge.

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Boris Johnson has just arrived at ERG meeting – feels very much like this is on and letters from Brexiteers about to go in en masse

Reflecting on reports that Gove has accepted the Brexit Secretary role, BBG has published a brief summary of what Gove as BS would mean for the deal.

He’s a Brexiteer but also more pragmatic than a lot of his fellow campaigners. He’s spoken out in the past in favor of the idea of clinching Brexit – any Brexit – and then tweaking it later to improve it. Gove would need to weigh up whether he wants the job, though. Two Brexiteers quit after realizing the job didn’t wield much power, as the deal was cooked by May’s team. The EU is unlikely to budge, so there’s no chance to wade back in and secure a heroic renegotiation from Brussels. Does he want to be the minister for no deal Dan, I will add the Soros commentary and then get coffee.

According to the Westminster rumor mill, Rory Stewart could replace Gove as environment secretary if Gove accepts the Brexit Secretary job.

Laura Hughes

@Laura_K_Hughes

Hearing from a minister that Rory Stewart could become the new Environment Secretary if Michael Gove accepts Brexit Secretary role.

* * *

Update VII: Just as May is fighting for her political future, more unsympathetic EU bureaucrats are turning up the pressure.  The latest was EU Council Head Donald Tusk, who said that “Since the very beginning, we have had no doubt that Brexit is a lose-lose situation and that our negotiations have only been about damage control.”

This statement makes the EU’s ulterior motive clear: To frustrate Parliament and hopefully stop the Brexit. Tusk also confirmed that the Nov. 25 EU Brexit summit is on…with or without a deal in the UK.

Another junior cabinet minister just tendered his resignation: North East Hampshire MP Ranil Jayawardena, a parliamentary private secretary to the Ministry of Justice, has also offered his resignation. As Jawawardena leaves, Gove has reportedly accepted the Brexit Secretary role.

Team Ranil

@TeamRanil

1

Cutting against earlier reports that Mordaunt would begrudgingly remain in May’s cabinet, the minister is reportedly meeting with May Thursday afternoon to push for a “free vote” on the Brexit plan – which No. 10 is adamantly against (most likely because they would lose). This is the clearest indication yet that Mordaunt could become the third senior minister to resign.

Steven Swinford

@Steven_Swinford

BREAKING

I’m told that Penny Mordaunt going to see PM later this afternoon. She’s pushing for a free vote on the Brexit deal, which the No 10 is adamant will not happen.

Could she become the third Cabinet resignation of this extraordinary day? We’ll know in a few hours…

Meanwhile, rumors are circulating that the ERG has reached the 48-letter threshold to call for a leadership challenge, though there’s been nothing concrete yet. Back in Westminster, Theresa May has been answering questions from agitated MPs for more than two hours – most of them hostile, as BBG pointed out. And the Sun is reporting that the confidence vote in May is “already on.”

Harry Cole

@MrHarryCole

Sounds to me like a confidence vote already on. Whips informally sounding out MPs on which way they would vote…. 🚨

* * *

Update VI: The Telegraph is reporting that Gove has been offered the position of Brexit secretary, but he’s unsure whether to accept following Raab’s resignation, as he also has reservations about the deal.

Steven Swinford

@Steven_Swinford

BREAKING

Michael Gove has been offered the job of Brexit Secretary, sources confirm.

But he’s still wrestling with whether he will stay on at all in the wake of Raab’s resignation. Which will it be?

Meanwhile, rumors are circulating that Penny Mordaunt may become the third senior minister to resign on Thursday.

Watch video of Raab’s interview with the BBC:

Embedded video

BBC Breaking News

@BBCBreaking

Draft #Brexit deal is “damaging for the economy but devastating for public trust in our democracy” – says ex-Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab in his first post resignation interview http://bbc.in/2QHUT6H

And video of Scotland’s Mundell calling him a “carpetbagger”.

Matt Chorley

@MattChorley

💥 💥 💥

Representing Border@ITVBorderRB

EXCLUSIVE: Watch @DavidMundellDCT hit out at @DominicRaab‘s resignation, calling him a “carpet bagger” and says he himself won’t resign.

Embedded video

Here’s a quick roundup of Thursday’s most notable developments, courtesy of RanSquawk.

  • UK Brexit Secretary Raab has resigned
  • Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Esther McVey
  • Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union Suella Braverman
  • Parliamentary Private Secretary in the Department of Education Anne-Marie Trevelyan
  • James Rothwell Telegraph Brexit correspondent tweeted that “a plugged-in Tory source, not a Brexiteer, reckons 6 Cabinet
  • resignations to follow Raab, three unknowns, the rest will back the deal. (Newswires)
  • Those who will not resign:
  • Steven Swinford of the Telegraph tweets “Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid are going nowhere, I’m told”. (Newswires)
  • Steven Swinford Telegraph Deputy Political editor tweets that Gove isn’t in the Commons because of a personal issue. He decided
  • to stay because stakes so high – if he left it would have precipitated exodus. Now Raab’s gone everything changes.. (Newswires)
  • Beth Rigby tweets “Understand that Leadsom is not resigning before business questions”. (Newswires)
  • No confidence vote:
  • ITV’s Peston says that Tory MP’s tell him that 48 letters of no-confidence are to be lodged by lunchtime today. (Newswires)
  • Steven Swinford Telegraph Deputy Political Editor tweets Jacob Rees-Mogg just threatened to submit his letter of no confidence in
  • the Chamber, which he later submitted. (Newswires)
  • Parliament Vote:
  • DUP MP Shannon says they feel betrayed and will “certainly” vote against May’s Brexit deal. (Newswires)
  • Recent reports suggest that the Parliamentary meaningful vote on Brexit could take place on December 18th. (Newswires)

Amid the chaos, some see a “straightforward” path from here:

 

Thornton McEnery@ThorntonMcEnery

Straightforward from here:
1. Torys depose Theresa May
2. Brexit fails
3. Britain remains
4. Election called
5. Prime Minister Liam Gallagher

 

* * *

[Message clipped]  View entire message

end
ITALY
Italian yields spreads spike to 3.15% (italian 10 yr/10 year German bund) after a Salvini advisor, Borghi warns that if the League has a majority in government, they will leave the EU.  A spread fo 4% will cause the massive bank run as citizens bail.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Italian Yields Spike After Salvini Advisor Warns Italy Will Exit Eurozone If League Wins

Majority

As if there wasn’t enough non-stop chaos out of the UK as the fate of Brexit and Theresa May is being decided on twitter, between flashing red Bloomberg headlines, and media speculation and rumors, moments ago Italy decided to remind everyone just how unstable its own political situation is, when Claudio Borghi, chief economic advisor to Italy’s de facto leader Salvini, said that the EU has used “made-up numbers” in judging Italy’s budget (the EU has effectively accused Italy of doing the same), and then asked if the EU would have the “courage” to sanction Italy.

As a reminder, the last time a populist European played chicken with the EU, the ECB promptly caused Greek banks to be shuttered indefinitely and Varoufakis’ political career was promptly over. Maybe this time it will be different.

But what really spooked markets, and caught traders’ attention, was the following headline from Reuters:

  • BORGHI, CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISOR TO SALVINI: IF THE LEAGUE GETS A MAJORITY IN THE NEXT ELECTIONS ITALY WILL EXIT THE EUROZONE

In kneejerk reaction, yields on 10Y BTPs spiked to session highs, hitting 3.54%..

… and sending “lo spread” between German and Italian bonds to 315bps, creeping ever closer to the 400bps red line beyond which the Italian bank runs will likely begin.

Amid this chaos out of Italy, Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index has fallen 1%, hitting its lowest intraday level since Oct. 31, dragged not only by the sell-off in U.K. stocks due to Brexit risks, but fresh concerns about “Italeave” as Europe suddenly finds itself defending its integrity on two fronts.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

I) Saudi Arabia

Five Saudis face the death penalty over the Khashoggi killing.  So far the Crown Prince has been cleared..

(courtesy zerohedge)

Five Saudis Face Death Penalty Over Khashoggi Killing; Crown Prince Cleared

Saudi Arabia public prosecutor Sheikh Shaalan al-Shaalan said on Thursday that the kingdom will seek the death penalty for five suspects among the 11 charged in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, confirming suspicions that members of the murder squad purportedly sent to “interrogate” Khashoggi will now themselves face beheadings as the Saudi Royal Family closes ranks around the Crown Prince, per the FT.

As for Mohammed bin Salman who runs the day to day affairs of the world’s top oil exporter and is the de facto head of OPEC, the prosecutor said had “no knowledge” of the mission, effectively absolving him of any domestic suspicion, if not international.

Khash

The charges were handed down after the kingdom dismissed five senior intelligence officers and arrested 18 Saudi nationals in connection with Khashoggi’s disappearance. The Saudi insider-turned-dissident journalist disappeared on Oct. 2 after entering the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul to pick up documents that would have allowed him to marry his fiance. Khashoggi was a legal resident of Virginia.

According to the Saudi prosecutor, five people charged are believed to have been involved in “ordering and executing the crime,” according to CNN.

The prosecutor said that the former Saudi deputy intelligence chief, Ahmed al-Assiri, ordered a mission to force Khashoggi to go back to Saudi Arabia and formed a team of 15 people.

They were divided into three groups, the Saudi Public Prosecutor said: a negotiation team, an intelligence team and a logistical team.

It was the head of the negotiating team who ordered the killing of Khashoggi, the prosecutor said.

The Saudis stuck by latest (ever changing) narrative that the Washington Post columnist was killed after a mission to abduct him went awry. The deputy chief of intelligence ordered that Khashoggi be brought back to the kingdom, Shaalan said. The team killed him after the talks failed and his body was handed to a “collaborator” in Turkey, he said.

Asked whether Saud al-Qahtanti, an aide to Prince Mohammed, had any role in the case, Shaalan said that a royal adviser had a coordinating role and had provided information. The former adviser was now under investigation, the prosecutor said, declining to reveal the names of any of those facing charges.

Al-Shaalan did reveal that a total of 21 suspects are now being held in connection with the case. Notably, the decision to charge the 5 comes after National Security Advisor John Bolton repudiated reports that a recording of Khashoggi’s murder made by Turkish authorities suggested that Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman was behind the murder plot.

But as long as OPEC+ is planning to do “whatever it takes” to boost oil prices, the US’s willingness to give the Saudis a pass could always be tested if crude prices again turn sharply higher.

END
TURKEY/USA
In order to appease Erdogan, the White House is thinking about kicking out Gulen from the USA…the Lira surges
(courtesy zerohedge)

White House Weighs Kicking Out Cleric Gulen From US To Appease Erdogan; Lira Surges

In what is the most shocking geopolitical news of the day, NBC reports that the Trump administration is weighing extraditing the nemesis of Turkish President Recep Erdogan, cleric Fethulah Gulen who has been living for years in relative seclusion in rural Pennsylvania, from the U.S. in order to placate Turkey over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

According to the NBC report, Trump administration officials last month asked federal law enforcement agencies to examine legal ways of removing the exiled Turkish cleric in an attempt to persuade Erdogan to ease pressure on the Saudi government. The effort includes directives to the Justice Department and FBI that officials reopen Turkey’s case for his extradition, as well as a request to the Homeland Security Department for information about his legal status, four sources told NBC.

In hopes of finding immigration irregularities, the White House has requested details about Gulen’s residency status in the U.S. Gulen – who has been living in Pennsylvania since the late 1990s – has a Green Card.

As NBC also adds, there was a certain level of incredulity at this sequence of events: career officials at the agencies pushed back on the White House requests, the U.S. officials and people briefed on the requests said.

“At first there were eye rolls, but once they realized it was a serious request, the career guys were furious,” said a senior U.S. official involved in the process.

What is strange is that while Trump appears eager to appease Erdogan by handing him his arch enemy, the person whom the Turkish president has blamed for creating a “shadow government”, and being responsible for the failed 2016 coup attempt, a Turkish official said the government does not link its concerns about the Khashoggi murder with Gulen’s extradition case.

“We definitely see no connection between the two,” the official said. “We want to see action on the end of the United States in terms of the extradition of Gulen. And we’re going to continue our investigation on behalf of the Khashoggi case.”

So why the extradition push? According to NBC, the secret effort to resolve one of the leading tensions in U.S.-Turkey relations – Gulen’s residency in the U.S. – provides a window into how President Donald Trump is trying to navigate hostility between two key allies after Saudi officials murdered Khashoggi on October 2 at the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul.

It suggests the White House could be looking for ways to appease and contain Erdogan’s ire over the murder while preserving Trump’s close alliance with Saudi Arabia’s controversial de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Trump has been desperate to brush aside the entire Khashoggi affair so Riyadh can continue to purchase billions in US weapons without complaints from Congress; Erdogan, meanwhile, has kept the pressure up by leaking pieces of evidence and repeatedly speaking out to accuse Prince Mohammed of orchestrating the murder of Khashoggi.

Of course, as regular readers know, Erdogan has for years demanded the U.S. send Gulen back to Turkey, however such requests have been regularly denied by both the Obama and Trump administration, at least until now.

The Turkish leader accuses the elderly cleric of being a terrorist who was behind a failed coup against Erdogan’s government in 2016. After the coup attempt, Ankara made a formal request to the U.S. for Gulen’s extradition.

Turkish officials made clear to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during his Oct. 17 meeting with Erdogan in Ankara that they wanted the Trump administration to turn over Gulen, the U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter said.

“That was their number one ask,” said a person briefed on the meeting.

One option that Turkish and Trump administration officials recently discussed is forcing Gulen to relocate to South Africa rather than sending him directly to Turkey if extradition is not possible, said the U.S. officials and people briefed on the discussions. But the U.S. does not have any legal justification to send Gulen to South Africa, they said, so that wouldn’t be a viable option unless he went willingly.

Whether or not Gulen is ultimately extradited remains unclear, however the fact that Trump is even considering this shows just how much leverage the Turkish president now has over Trump. As a result, it will hardly come as a surprise that the Turkish Lira has surged on the news, rising to just above 5.300 after trading at 5.45 earlier…

… as Turkey slowly emerges as one of the most powerful nations in the middle east, engaged in friendly diplomatic relations with Moscow on one hand, while seemingly calling the shots in the US as well.

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

More evidence of a global slowdown: the world’s largest shipper Maersk has sounded the alarm bell on a global slowdown.  They label the trade war as a catalyst for the slowdown

(courtesy zerohedge)

World’s Largest Shipper Warns Of Early 2019 Slowdown 

The world’s largest shipper A.P. Moller-Maersk sounded the alarm on Wednesday by announcing there would be a tremendous “price to be paid” for President Trump’s trade war as global demand has now plummeted to its lowest level in more than two years.

Chief Executive Soren Skou told the Financial Times that it expected global container trade to decline by .5% to 2% in 2019 and 2020 due to increased tariffs between the US and China.

“The impact right now on US-China trade is that Chinese imports to the US have gone up and US exports to China have gone down...Obviously, there will be a price to be paid sometime in the first quarter . . . There will be no real impact until after Chinese new year [in February],” Skou said in an interview.

The demand outlook for 2019 looks rather gloomy, as top US importers have been quickly stocking up on Chinese goods before new import tariffs take effect on January 01, this could mean that container demand plummets sometime between January and March 2019 – something that Skou warned about above.

The US has introduced tariffs of 10% to 25% on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to retaliate with tariffs of their own. Trump has threatened China with a full-blown trade war in 2019, a move that would crush the global economy.

In August, we first reported that freight data via Goldman identified global trade momentum was slowing since late 2017, and that July readings suggested an alarming continuation, and in some cases acceleration, of this trend.

The deceleration in shipping rates has closely tracked a tightening in global financial conditions, particularly evident in EM data, which in turn has largely been a manifestation of the ongoing escalation in the trade war.

Earlier this month, we outlined even more evidence from Reuters shows the cost of chartering commercial ships has collapsed even further. More specific, rates for container ships have sunk 27% from a multi-year peak while raw material vessel rates have fallen 10% from a five-year high, adding to the mounting evidence that slowing global trade could soon usher in a worldwide recession around 2020.

The Harper Petersen Charter Rate Index, which is published on a weekly basis, tracks rate levels in US Dollars of container ships, had dropped well over 27% from June when it was at a seven-year high to 499.

As shown below, the S&P500 usually has a tantrum when container rates collapse…

And there you have it, the world’s largest shipping company has proof that Trump’s trade war with China could lead to economic turbulence in early 2019.

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1309 DOWN .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.46  DOWN 0.099 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2822 DOWN   0.0159  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3221  DOWN .0026 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 3 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1309; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 35/93 POINTS OR 1.36%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 448.91 POINTS OR 1.75% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.05% /EUROPEAN BOURSES MIXED

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 42.86POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED MIXED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 448,91 POINTS OR 1.75% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 35.93       POINTS OR 1.36%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.05%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 42.86 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1209.40

silver:$14.12

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.10% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.35 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.11 UP 31  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.97% UP 1    in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.11%  DOWN 0  BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.63% up 1  IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.49 up 0   POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 186 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.36%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 3.13% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1329 UP .0018 or 18 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113.42 down .138 OR 14 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2759 DOWN .02207( POUND DOWN 221 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 54 basis points to 1.3192

 

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This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 18 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1329

The Yen ROSE to 113.42 for a GAIN of 14 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST 221 basis points, trading at 1.2759/

The Canadian dollar GAINED 54 basis points to 1.3192

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9392-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9311(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.3367

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.11%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.10 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.34 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.14 UP 34 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 4.22 POINTS OR 0.06%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 58.86 POINTS  OR 0.52%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 35.23 POINTS OR 0.70%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 33.10POINTS OR 0.36%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 172.11 POINTS OR 0.90%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57/09 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 67.13 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.17  THE CROSS LOWER BY .92 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 92 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.3367 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.36 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:56.57

 

BRENT:66.66

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.11%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.36%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1326 ( UP 15 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.56 DOWN .010 (YEN UP 1 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.93 DOWN 0 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2771 DOWN 213 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3933

the Russian rouble:  65.89 UP 112 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 112 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3175 UP 72 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9392  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9277 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.36%

 

The Dow closed  UP 208.77 POINTS OR 0.83%

NASDAQ closed UP 122,64  points or 1.72% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.98 CLOSED DOWN  1.27

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.629%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/HUGE JUMP today

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Stocks Swing On Headline Chaos As Cable Clobbered & Credit Cracked

Another day, another headline-driven chaos ride…

China was higher overnight…

European stocks fell with Italy leading the charge…

 

US Stocks bounced around 1pmET on reports of a trade truce from USTR Lighthizer…then sank a little on Ross comments…and then dropped again after Lighthizer’s office denied reports of a trade truce…

 

Futures show a relatively uneventful night and then all hell broke loose…

 

On the week, Trannies are the only index in the green…

 

Retailers fell for the 5th day in a row…

 

Banks bounced… barely… (aprt from JPM which outperformed)

 

Credit markets have begun to seriously crack…

 

 

Treasury yields ended the day lower…with the belly once again outperforming

 

 

The Dollar ended lower after a big surge (as cable tumbled) overnight – chaotic trading in the USD but the pattern seems quite clear – buying overnight (dollar shortage) selling in US…

 

Yuan extended its gains on the week…

 

Cable had an ugly day after May pitched her Brexit deal…

 

Bitcoin Cash – amid its Fork – plunged further on the week, Bitcoin was relatively stable after yesterday’s crash…

 

Dollar weakness helped commodities hold on to gains…

 

WTI Crude managed a small gain for the 2nd day in a row…

 

The big ugly in the energy complex gave some back today…

 

Finally, Eurodollar curves suggest the market is rejecting Fed tightening almost entirely… 1.5 hikes in 2018 and actual rate cuts priced in for now for 2020 and 2021…

And based on the ongoing tightness of financial conditions, S&P should be trading notably lower…

Virus-free. w

 

 

 

 

market trading

P G and E imploding

(courtesy zerohedge)

As PG&E Implodes, These Hedge Funds Are Getting Destroyed

One day after investors were stunned when troubled California utility, PG&E, drew down the full available balance of its revolving credit facilities, sending the stock into a tailspin, the pain has continued and on Thursday, PG&E shares extended losses, last down more than 21%, and tumbling more than 50% in the past week, with Mizuho the latest bank to cut its price target, saying company could face wildfire-related liabilities of $13 billion

To be sure, things aren’t looking good: as Bloomberg reports, 15 minutes before a fire was reported among the trees north of Sacramento – the spark that would explode into the deadliest blaze in California history – a PG&E power line in the area went offline. A week later, at least 56 people have been found dead – and PG&E Corp. is facing its gravest crisis yet over whether its equipment has ignited another devastating wildfire.

While the exact cause of the fast-moving Camp Fire may not be known for months or even years, in Sacramento and on Wall Street, the reckoning for PG&E is already at at hand.

After limping out of bankruptcy in 2004, California’s largest utility is once again under pressure. Underscoring its financial straits, PG&E said late Tuesday that it had exhausted its revolving credit line. It also said that if it’s held responsible for the fire that destroyed the town of Paradise, the liability would exceed its insurance coverage.

That comes as the company is already facing as much as $17 billion in liabilities, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimate, from a swarm of wildfires that charred parts of Northern California wine country last year. State investigators have blamed PG&E equipment for sparking 17 of last year’s blazes. A report on the most destructive of those is still outstanding.

The reason the stock is collapsing is that with two sets of devastating and deadly fires within 13 months, Wall Street is confronted with the question how PG&E can sustain billions of dollars of liabilities that could keep piling up. The San Francisco-based company lost about $12 billion in market value since the Camp Fire started through Wednesday, when it the shares plunged the most in 16 years. Holders of $18 billion of bonds that are currently rated investment grade, are bracing for the utility’s credit ratings to be cut to junk, making PG&E one of the biggest “fallen angels” in years.

“Investors are understandably beginning to question the wisdom of continuing to commit capital to California’s investor-owned utilities absent a more comprehensive wildfire liability policy fix,” said Jonathan Arnold, a utility analyst for Deutsche Bank AG.

Some are even bringing up the dreaded B-word amid growing concern about the prospect, however remote, that PG&E might be forced into bankruptcy again.

“The risk of bankruptcy is very real for these guys and with each passing wildfire that risk increases,” Jaimin Patel, a credit analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, said in an interview. “They will almost certainly need help from the state.”

That is the last thing some of the smartest money on Wall Street wants to hear. As we found out in yesterday’s deluge of 13Fs, in the third quarter a flurry of value investors decided to throw caution to the wind and buy up PCG stock. Some, like legendary value investor Seth Klarman added a whopping 14.5 million shares, bringing its total to 19 million as of Sept 30.  Other prominent names that have gotten crushed by the collapse in PG&E stock include Viking, Blue Mountain, Appaloosa, Millennium, Silver Point, Citadel and many others who added a lot of PCG shares in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, at a time when the market is already punishing most of the 2 and 20 crowd, the following chart – one which strongly hints at an upcoming bankruptcy – is the last thing any of the names shown above want to see…

Meanwhile, things aren’t looking that much better for PG&E’s bonds…

… as investors pile on bets that a default may be inevitable:

market data/

the market will not like this:  core retail sales growth is the slowest in 1/2 year

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

‘Core’ Retail Sales Growth Slowest In 6 Months

Following China’s gravely disappointing retail sales growth (as shadow banking credit contracts), US retail sales growth spiked 0.8% MoM (after a revised 0.1% drop in September)

However, core retail sales rose only 0.3% MoM (below expectations).

Everything rose except furniture and home furnishings -0.3%, and food service and retail places -0.2%

Finally, the YoY growth in Control Group Retail Sales was 4.5% – the weakest since April…

 

 

end

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

The power of the Fed

a great read…

(courtesy Brandon Smith/Alt Market.com

The Fed Will Continue Tightening Until Everything Breaks

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

Around three years ago, in September 2015, I wrote an article titled ‘The Real Reasons Why The Fed Will Hike Interest Rates‘ in which I predicted that the Federal Reserve, in the face of criticism, would soon pursue a program of interest rate hikes into economic weakness. I argued that this plan would be somewhat similar to what the Fed did in the early 1930’s; an action that prolonged the Great Depression for many more years. So far, my prediction has proven to be correct.

Despite the fact that the Fed keeps raising rates as it tightens the noose around the supposed economic “recovery”, there are still many people out there who refuse to accept that the central bank would deliberately implode the fiscal bubble that it has spent the last ten years inflating. Even today, I still see arguments proclaiming that the Fed will be forced to pull back if stocks fall beyond 15% to 20%. I also see claims that Fed officials like Jerome Powell had “better start looking for another job” because Donald Trump won’t be happy with Fed policies that could cause a crash. This is pure delusion from people who do not understand how the Fed operates.

First and foremost, let’s be clear, the Federal Reserve is an autonomous entity that does not answer to government oversight. It never has and it probably never will. This reality is supported by admissions by former Fed officials like Alan Greenspan, who publicly noted that the Fed answers to no one.

The central bank functions in quite the opposite capacity from what many people assume. As Carroll Quigley, prominent American historian and mentor to Bill Clinton, noted in his book Tragedy And Hope:

“The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent private meetings and conferences. The apex of the system was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world’s central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank … sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world.”

In other words, governments do not assert control over central banks; central banks assert control over governments. That said, there are some exceptions to this rule. For example, an act of Congress can be used to enforce a full audit of Fed activities, something which has never been done.

Fed propaganda asserts the lie that the bank is audited annually by the Government Accounting Office (GAO), but this is NOT an audit of Fed financial actions and policy initiatives. Rather, it is an audit of minor expenditures. Knowing how many pencils and desks the Fed purchases in a year does not help us to understand the bank’s influence over our economic security. All other audits of the Fed are done internally by the Fed’s own Board of Governors. This is hardly transparent or independent.

The only time the public has gained access to even a partial government audit of Fed activities was during the audit of TARP. This alone exposed trillions of dollars in bailouts and overnight loans to various banks and corporations, many of which were foreign.

The GAO did nothing in terms of regulatory action against the Fed after it was revealed that they were funneling trillions in capital into foreign corporations. All they did was make a ledger of the transactions, and remained silent on the rest.

I remind readers of this history and the conditions surrounding Fed actions because I want to drive the point home that, for now, the Fed and other central banks dictate the rules of the game. Some may say this has changed with the election of Donald Trump, but I disagree. If anything, as long as Trump is in office, the Fed will chase higher interest rates and steeper balance sheet cuts. They will not stop until markets break. And, the only solution (shutting down the Fed entirely) also comes with a set of extreme fiscal consequences.

There is a wall of cognitive dissonance when some in the public are confronted with this notion. They prefer to believe in a set of standard lies rather than accept that the Fed is a saboteur of our financial system. Here are those lies, listed in no particular order…

Lie #1: The Fed Is Unaware Of The Bubbles it Creates

Mainstream economists and Fed officials alike use this lie regularly. Not once has the Board of Governors of the Fed ever been audited or punished in light of an economic crisis they created. When central bank culpability is obvious, they simply claim they had no idea the fiscal bubble was as inflated as it became. The disaster “surprised them”.

The Fed’s creation of easy credit and zero oversight, not to mention its opposition to any regulation of derivatives, fed the bubble prior to 2008. Then they ignored all obvious warning signs that the bubble was about to burst. But what about the current “everything bubble” that the Fed has created through near zero interest rates and endless fiat money manufacturing? Well, Fed officials openly admit to their involvement.

As the former head of the Federal Reserve Dallas branch Richard Fisher admitted in an interview with CNBC, since 2009, the U.S. central bank has made its business the manipulation of the stock market to the upside:

“What the Fed did — and I was part of that group — is we front-loaded a tremendous market rally, starting in 2009.

It’s sort of what I call the “reverse Whimpy factor” — give me two hamburgers today for one tomorrow.

I’m not surprised that almost every index you can look at … was down significantly.” [After the first Fed rate hike]

The Fed knows when it is conjuring a bubble environment; they just won’t admit it as the bubble is deflating and economic pain is everywhere.

Lie #2: The Fed Is Unaware That It’s Tightening Policies Cause Extreme Economic Contraction

So, if the Fed is aware when it causes a bubble, is it aware when it is popping a bubble? Absolutely. As Ben Bernanke admitted in a speech in 2002:

“In short, according to Friedman and Schwartz, because of institutional changes and misguided doctrines, the banking panics of the Great Contraction were much more severe and widespread than would have normally occurred during a downturn.

Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”

Bernanke was referencing Milton Friedman’s assertion that the Fed’s tightening policies in the early 1930’s, after they had made markets dependent on easy credit through the 1920’s, had caused negative feedback in the system at the perfect time, destabilizing any possible recovery for years to come.

The problem is twofold, of course. The Fed was allowed to fuel a fraudulent market bubble in the first place. Then, it was allowed to pop the bubble in the most destructive way through tightening policies (like higher interest rates), which crushed Main Street support. If this sounds familiar, it is, because the same tactic is being used by the Fed today.

In an October 2012 meeting of the Federal Reserve, minutes indicate that Jerome Powell was highly vocal about what would happen if the Fed pulled support from debt addicted markets by raising interest rates and cutting assets:

“My third concern — and others have touched on it as well — is the problems of exiting from a near $4 trillion balance sheet. We’ve got a set of principles from June 2011 and have done some work since then, but it just seems to me that we seem to be way too confident that exit can be managed smoothly. Markets can be much more dynamic than we appear to think.

When you turn and say to the market, “I’ve got $1.2 trillion of these things,” it’s not just $20 billion a month — it’s the sight of the whole thing coming. And I think there is a pretty good chance that you could have quite a dynamic response in the market.

I think we are actually at a point of encouraging risk-taking, and that should give us pause.

Investors really do understand now that we will be there to prevent serious losses. It is not that it is easy for them to make money but that they have every incentive to take more risk, and they are doing so. Meanwhile, we look like we are blowing a fixed-income duration bubble right across the credit spectrum that will result in big losses when rates come up down the road. You can almost say that that is our strategy.”

Jerome Powell is now the Fed Chairman, and yet, he is following through with the same tightening actions that he warned about in 2012. He is pretending that the tightening process will be painless even though fundamental economic conditions are just as weak now as they were six years ago. Again, Powell knows the Fed is going to cause a crash, but he is moving forward anyway and he is not warning the public about the danger.

Lie #3: The Fed Is The Center Of Establishment Power, Therefore They Need The U.S. Economy To Thrive

While it is true that the Fed is currently in charge of the dollar as the world reserve currency, the idea that the Fed is somehow indispensable to the global establishment has always bewildered me. Everything the Fed has done since its inception in 1913 has been designed to diminish the U.S. economy and erode the purchasing power of our currency. I ask, at what point has the Fed ever taken an action which did NOT result in a bubble or a bubble collapse? At what point has the U.S. economy ever improved at a fundamental level because of the Fed, rather than diminished in the wake of a fake recovery the Fed conned the public into believing in?

What else does the Fed do besides sabotage?

I believe the truth is that the Fed does not care about the U.S. economy, or even the survival of the dollar, as is obvious in their actions. The Fed is merely a puppet entity of larger institutions like the Bank for International Settlements or the International Monetary Fund. These institutions seek centralization at a global level, with a global currency system and global economic authority, as they have openly admitted to in their own publications. The U.S. economy as we know it today, and the Fed by extension, are expendable in this pursuit.

The Fed will continue on its current course no matter the cost, because there is a greater strategy in play. In fact, some elites may even welcome a shutdown of the Fed at this time because this opens the path for the death of the dollar as the world reserve currency and the introduction of a new world monetary system, while all the consequences surrounding the shift can be blamed on political chaos and coincidence.

To drive the point home, I leave readers with a revealing quote from Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, as she outlines why crisis in national economies is actually good for the IMF:

“When the world around the IMF goes downhill, we thrive. We become extremely active because we lend money, we earn interest and charges and all the rest of it, and the institution does well. When the world goes well and we’ve had years of growth, as was the case back in 2006 and 2007, the IMF doesn’t do so well both financially and otherwise.”

*  *  *

If you would like to support the publishing of articles like the one you have just read, visit our donations page here.  We greatly appreciate your patronage.

end

This will definitely slow the housing market as mortgage rates climb closer to 6%

(courtesy Wolf Richter/WolfStreet)

 

Mortgage Rates May Hit 6% Sooner, as Fed Sheds Mortgage-Backed Securities, But What

Will that Do to Housing Bubble 2?

 

by Wolf Richter •  • 8 Comments

Mortgage rates are climbing faster than the 10-year Treasury yield.

The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) and a 20% down-payment rose to 5.17% for the latest reporting week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association(MBA) today. This is the highest average rate since September 2009 (chart via Investing.com):

Many people with smaller down payments and/or lower credit ratings are already paying quite a bit more. Top-tier borrowers pay less.

Thus, mortgage rates have moved a little closer to the next line in the sand, 6%, which is still historically low. At that point, the interest rate would be back where it had been in December 2008, when the Fed was unleashing its program of interest rate repression even for long-dated maturities via QE that later included the purchase of mortgaged-backed securities (MBS), which helped push down mortgage rates further.

Now the Fed is shedding Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, and we’re starting to see the impact on mortgage rates: The difference (spread) between the 10-year yield and the interest rate of the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has widened sharply.

Since the beginning of the year:

  • The 30-year mortgage interest rate has risen 95 basis points, or nearly 1 percentage point (from 4.22% to 5.17%).
  • The 10-year Treasury yield has risen 71 basis points (from 2.46% to 3.17%)
  • The spread between the two has widened from 176 basis points on at the beginning of January to 200 basis points now.

In other words, mortgage rates are climbing faster than the 10-year Treasury yield, now that the Fed has begun the shed mortgage-baked securities. This is expected. It’s part of the QE unwind – it’s part of the Fed exiting the mortgage market and pulling its support out from under it.

But 6% is still low:

Home prices in many markets have risen far above the home prices back in 2008 and 2009, and far above even the local peaks during Housing Bubble 1 in those markets now that they have developed into a fully blooming Housing Bubble 2.

Home prices as a whole averaged out across the US have surged 11.5% above the crazy peak of Housing Bubble 1:

Even current mortgage rates – as low as they still are, historically speaking – are having an impact on the housing market and are putting pressure on it at the margin, with some potential buyers being locked out and others scared off as they’re finding today’s inflated home prices don’t mix well with even slighter higher mortgage rates: What was barely affordable for them, with a good amount of stretching, has become unaffordable.

And the cooling effect is already becoming visible in the first data sets for some of the previously hottest markets [Declines Hit the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America]. 

But for real pain to set in, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage would need to get closer to 6%. This is likely the pain-threshold for the housing market. 6% will block enough potential buyers from buying at current prices to where sellers will have serious trouble selling their homes unless prices drop enough.

The cure for this market will be lower prices – even if it means rising defaults and considerable problems among mortgage lenders, particularly the non-bank lenders (the “shadow banks”) that have very aggressively moved into the mortgage market over the last few years. Quicken Loans has now become the largest mortgage lender in the US, ahead of Wells Fargo. These shadow banks are less regulated and have taken more risks than the banks. The Fed is already worried about them but worrying is all it can do since it doesn’t regulate them.

So when will the mortgage market get to the pain threshold of 6%? Given that the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield is widening, and that therefore mortgage rates will rise faster than the 10-year yield, and that the yield curve will remain relatively flat but won’t invert, there is a strong likelihood that 6% is only about three rate hikes away – and that will likely be accomplished by mid-2019.

Seattle home prices fall sharply. New York condo prices are nearly flat for the year. First feeble declines in San Francisco, Dallas, Denver, etc. Something is afoot. Read…  Declines Hit the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America 

SWAMP STORIES

Avenatti arrested for hitting a woman.  He feels he will be fully exonerated

(courtesy zerohedge)

Avenatti Speaks After Arrest; “I Have Never Struck A Woman”

Update2: Michael Avenatti made a brief statement after his release from lockup Wednesday denying the allegations, and saying he looks forward to a “full investigation” after which he is confident that he will be “fully exonerated.”

Mike Cernovich 🇺🇸

@Cernovich

Michael Avenatti gives a statement after being released from jail under felony domestic violence charges. He starts at 11:20 https://www.pscp.tv/Circa/1ZkJzkwRrnRxv?t=11m20s 

Circa @Circa

Michael Avenatti is released from police custody after suspicion of domestic violence.

pscp.tv

“First of all, I want to thank the hardworking men and women of the LAPD for their professionalism and their work today. They had no option in light of the allegations. Secondly, I have never struck a woman. I never will strike a woman. I have been an advocate for women’s rights my entire career and I’m going to continue to be an advocate,” Avenatti said. “I am not going to be intimidated from stopping what I am doing. I am a father to two beautiful, smart, daughters. I would never disrespect them by touching a woman inappropriately or striking a woman. I am looking forward to a full investigation at which point I am confident that I will be fully exonerated. I also want to thank everyone for their support that has reached out. You know my character. You know me as a man and I appreciate it. Thank you.”

Update: After Michael Avenatti’s estranged wife issued a statement through her attorney Thursday night claiming that she “was not subject to any such incident on Tueasday night,” TMZ updated their report, writing: “We were initially told by our sources the alleged victim was Avenatti’s estranged wife. We now know it was not. The incident involved a different woman.

Benny

@bennyjohnson

TMZ updated: “We were initially told by our sources the alleged victim was Avenatti’s estranged wife. We now know it was not. The incident involved a different woman.”

I think this is actually worse for Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti

View image on Twitter

Jon Passantino

@passantino

Update: Avenatti’s wife says via her attorneys she *did not* make domestic violence claim against Michael and says the TMZ report is false. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/claudiarosenbaum/michael-avenatti-arrested 

***

This could complicate the launch of Avenatti 2020.

Michael Avenatti has been arrested on felony domestic violence charges, TMZ reported Wednesday afternoon. The LA lawyer, who’s best known for representing porn actress Stormy Daniels and discredited Kavanaugh accuser Julie Swetnick, was picked up after his estranged wife filed a domestic violence police report. TMZ’s source said her face was swollen and bruised when she arrived at the station.

LAPD confirmed Avenatti’s arrest. His bail is set at $50,000.

LAPD HQ

@LAPDHQ

We can confirm that today LAPD Detectives arrested Michael Avenatti on suspicion of domestic violence. This is an ongoing investigation and we will provide more details as they become available.

LAPD HQ

@LAPDHQ

Update: We can confirm that Michael Avenatti (DOB: 02-16-71) was booked this afternoon on a felony domestic violence charge (273.5 PC). His bail is set at $50,000.

TMZ said the initial attack occurred on Tuesday, but the conflict between the two escalated Wednesday during a confrontation at an exclusive apartment building in Century City. According to TMZ, Avenatti is currently in custody.

Avenatti

The sordid details of the confrontation include the soon-to-be former Mrs. Avenatti screaming at her estranged husband over the phone after running outside of his apartment building, before her husband chased after her, screaming “she hit me first.”

We’re told during today’s confrontation the woman ran out of the apartment building and was on the sidewalk on her cellphone with sunglasses covering her eyes, screaming on the phone, “I can’t believe you did this to me.”

We’re told security brought her inside the building and Michael showed up 5 minutes later, ran into the building, chasing after her.  He screamed repeatedly, “She hit me first.” We’re told he angrily added, “This is bulls***, this is f***ing bulls***.”

A law enforcement source say on Tuesday, Avenatti “kicked her out of the apartment” and that’s presumably when the alleged domestic violence occurred.

Details of the Avenatti’s acrimonious divorce have surfaced in press reports about the lavish lifestyle the two enjoyed during Avenatti’s days of running a successful law firm in LA. But the relationship fell apart in 2017, around the time that Avenatti’s firm ran into money trouble.

Sadly, this behavior isn’t all that surprising. After all, Avenatti named his ‘grassroots’ political fundraising vehicle “Fight PAC”. And this isn’t Avenatti’s first brush with misogyny: He caused a stir last month when he said during an interview that the Democratic Party’s 2020 nominee “better be a white male.” Because only another white man could beat Trump, he said.

Instead of apologizing for his comments, Avenatti insisted that he had been misquoted and claimed that he had always “called on” white males to do their part to stop misogyny and bigotry during his speeches.

Michael Avenatti

@MichaelAvenatti

Let me be clear: I have consistently called on white males like me to step, take responsibility, and be a part of stoping the sexism and bigotry that other white males engage in. It is especially important for them to call out other white males. I make this pt in my speeches.

That certainly didn’t age well.

end

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One comment

  1. Jim Ludwig Rand Clifford · · Reply

    God bless you Harvey. Truths you provide need to reach anyone thinking for themselves. Truth is the only way we might end…as the Pilgrims Society said around the launching of the “federal reserve”: “We will keep the price of silver low as a sow’s belly until hell freezes over”. Perhaps the Rothschild “Camp fire” in California will wake more people up the Rothschild “restructuring” of North America? You are great. Thank you.

    Like

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