DEC 7/BLOODBATH GALORE TODAY IN NEW YORK WITH DOW DOWN 553 POINTS AND NASDAQ DOWN 213 POINTS/GOLD AND SILVER THE ONLY WINNER UP $8.35 TO $1246.80 AND SILVER IS UP 16 CENTS/POOR JOBS REPORT WITH ONLY 155,000 JOB GAINS/POOR HOURLY RATE INCREASE OF .2% INSTEAD OF .3%/LOWER WEEKLY EARNINGS/CHINA RESPONDS NASTILY TO THE ARREST OF CFO OF HAUWEI..CHINA WILL GIVE A MEASURED RESPONSE/IN FRANCE EXPECT A LOT OF VIOLENCE AS THE YELLOW VESTS ORCHESTRATE “ACT FOUR”/HUGE STORIES FROM THE SWAMP TONIGHT/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1246.80 UP $8.35 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.60 UP 16 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1248.70

 

silver: $14.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

DEC

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 707 NOTICE(S) FOR 70,700 OZ (2.199 tonnes)

Total number of notices filed so far for DEC:  5982  for 527,500 OZ  (18.606 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR DECEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

128 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  640,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3328 for 16,640,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $3503:  DOWN 106

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3463  DOWN136 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 125 CONTRACTS FROM 178,649 DOWN TO 178,358 WITH YESTERDAY’S 5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

526 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 526 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 526 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 526 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.630 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

NOW 19.070 INITIALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC: 6753 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 6753 CONTRACTS) OR 33.76 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1351 CONTRACTS OR 6.75 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  33.76 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.82% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,710.79    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR NOVEMBER /2018:                                 247.18         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 185 WITH THE 5 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY AS THE BOYS CONTINUE WITH THEIR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OVER TO  ETFS AT THE START OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 526 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A TINY SIZED: 526 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 526 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 185 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 5 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.44 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .9050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 129% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 128 NOTICE(S) FOR 640,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./AND NOW DEC. AT 19.070 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY SMALL  SIZED 804 CONTRACTS UP TO 396,818 WITH THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.60//.YESTERDAY’S TRADING) AS THESE GUYS JOINED SILVER IN THE ROUTINE MIGRATION OVER TO ETF’S AS WE APPROACH AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 7979 CONTRACTS:

 

DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 7979 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 396,818. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8783 CONTRACTS:  804 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7979 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 8783 CONTRACTS OR 878,300 OZ = 27.32 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A TINY RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $1.60??

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5375 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 39,302 CONTRACTS OR 3,930,200 OZ OR 122.24 TONNES (5 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7860 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 122.24 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 122.24/2550 x 100% TONNES =  4/79% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,886.63  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018:                        552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 804 WITH THE GAIN  IN PRICING ($1.60) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7979 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7979 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 8783 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7979 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 804 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 27.32 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE RISE OF $1.60 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had: 707 notice(s) filed upon for 70,700 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY

 

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.51 TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   759.73 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 759.73 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS  TODAY:

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 185 CONTRACTS from 178,543 DOWN TO 178,358  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

526 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 526 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 185 CONTRACTS TO THE 526 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN  OF 341 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1.705 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. AND NOW 19.070 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 5 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 526 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.71 POINTS OR 0.03% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 92.62 POINTS OR 0.82% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 177.06 OR 0.82%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.37%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8815 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 51.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8815AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8881: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

a)The following is a must must read as Luongo explains the folly of Trump’s trade wars and how ultimately the USA will fall

( Tom Luongo)

b)China is still acting cool as they prepare on some sort of retaliation to the Huawei CFO arrest

( zerohedge)

c)Not good: Huawei CFO has been charged with fraud as one of companies subsidiaries, Skycom, concealed the true relationship with Huawei as the subsidiary dealt with Iran and sold them stuff with USA made stuff.

( zerohedge)

d)CHINA/USA/

Now that we witness the arrest of Meng on fraud charges, I guess it is safe to say that no American will wish to travel to China.  Employees of  USA owned companies

in China are also very worried

 

( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)FRANCE

France overtakes Denmark and Sweden as the most taxed nation on earth.

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

ibFRANCE

Tomorrow ought to be interesting as france readies a fleet of armoured vehicles ahead of “act iv” of the yellow vest fiots.

( zerohedge)

ii)GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK
This is a big story:  criminal oriented Deutsche bank clearly nearly all of the $234 billion of suspicious funds for Danske Bank in Estonia.  Not only that but they are also heavily involved in the banking scheme of the rich via the Panama papers.  Deutsche bank stock is hitting lows every day.  The problem for us is that they will never let this company fail due to its huge amount of derivatives…they will just paper over all of their loses and it is now huge!
(courtesy zerohedge)
iii) GERMANY
Meet Angela Merkel’s anointed successor as Party Leader:  Annegret Kramp Karrenbauer
( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

CANADA

With Canada in turmoil with growth decelerating and a material weaker oil sector and a drop in business sentiment, somehow Canada added a very strong 94,000 jobs last month….we are learning how to fudge data from our neighbour to the south

( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil rises on a bigger than expected production cut

( zerohedge)

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Brandon White of Pallisades writes that the LBMA is now less clear than before.  You will recall that they wanted to be more transparent.  Instead they are less transparent and it is no doubt that they are trying to hide central bank intervention
( Brandon White/GATA)

ii)GOOD LUCK TO THE VENEZUELANS WHO ARE TRYING TO REPATRIATE THEIR LAST 14 TONNES OF GOLD

( Reuters/GATA)

iii)Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them

( zerohedge/Chris Powell)

iv) I have been watching the comex gold deliveries this month and we have seen a big change.  For one, instead of gold deliveries morphing into London based forwards, we are witnessing more gold standing at the comex.  To tell you the truth, I did not pay attention to the fact  that the stoppers or users of the deliveries were to a large extent Goldman Sachs and one major player from JPMorgan..

something must be afoot
( Jesse’s Cafe Americaine)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

a)early morning after the release of the jobs report

gold jumps on poor jobs report/oil jumps on Saudi /OPEC oil deal/dollar dumps

( zerohedge)

 

b)After the USA sent out the mouthpiece Kudlow to jolt the markets northbound, the effect did not last long as investors started to dump big time

( zerohedge)

 

ii)Market data/

a)A big miss in the Nov. payrolls a rise to a disappointing 155,000 gain instead of 195,000.  Two other downers:  hourly earnings rose by only .2% instead of .3% and the average hrly week fell from 34.5 down to 35.4.  All of this was blamed on the weather. The entire jobs report is a phony.  It does not disclose the huge number of poor souls that give up trying to find a job

( zero hedge)

b)The big thing here is that there does  not appear to be any wage pressure
( zerohedge)

c)Soft data U.Mich sentiment is flat and the hope section plummets as home buying conditions hit a 10 yr low( zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Good looking girl! Heather Nauert is to be named UN ambassador.  She lacks experience but she will be fine

( zerohedge)

b)This is ominous for the Democrats…the CFO of the Clinton foundation is spilling the beans as he states:

“I know where all the bodies are buried”..I guess he means figuratively but maybe in reality.
( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Trump slams the FBI, Comey as Mueller is set to release documents on Cohen and Manafort which may give some insight into the fake Russian probe

( zerohedge)

b)the clowns are at it again.  Why waste time questioning these bozos.  Trump should just release the classified documents and be done with it.  The public is smart enough to realize what is going on.

( zerohedge)

c)Despite his co operation to Mueller in the witch hunt..it seems it did not help.  He is get substantial prison time for serious crimes.  Since Trump is also angry with cohen there will be no pardon for him

( zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 804 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 396,818 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.60 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7979 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR DECEMBER:  7979 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7979 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  8783 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7979 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 804 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8783 contracts OR 878,300 OZ OR 27.32 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of December and we now have a total of 2368 contracts stand in December so we had a loss of 1111 contracts.  We had 1150 notices served yesterday, so we gained 39 contracts or 3900 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and as well they refuse to receive a fiat bonus

The next delivery month after December is January which saw it FALL TO 3339 FOR A LOSS OF 281 CONTRACTS.  February GAINED 1818 contracts to stand at 299,893 contracts.

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

AS A REMINDER WE HAVE ONLY 4.000 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD READY TO SERVE UPON OUR DEC LONGS.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 707 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 70,700 OZ. (2.199 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 185 CONTRACTS FROM 178,543 DOWN TO 178,358 (AND FURTHER FROM NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 526 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 526 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 526.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 401 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  185 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 526 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   341 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of DECEMBER and here in this front month of December we now have 630 contracts standing for a loss of 157 contracts.  We had 173 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we gained 16 contracts or an additional 80,000 oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating to accept a fiat bonus. We continue where we left off last month as queue jumping in silver is the norm for at least 20 months.

After  December we have the non active  January contract month and here we saw a gain of 11 contracts up to 1953 contracts.  February saw its another 4 contract gain to stand at 51. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a GAIN of 142 contracts UP to 145,842

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 128 notice(s) filed for 640,000 OZ for the DEC, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 213,249 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  259,814  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 7-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 64,057.164 oz

HSBC

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

700.61

 

 

oz

DELAWARE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
707 notice(s)
 70700 OZ
2.199 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
1661 contracts
(166,100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5982 notices
598,200 OZ
18.606 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 1 dealer entries:

i Into the HSBC account: 64,057.164. oz

 

 

total dealer deposits: 64,057.164  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware:  700.61 oz

total gold customer deposits;  700.61 oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  0 oz

 

we had 0  adjustment..

we still have not had any adjustments out of the dealer to the customer account to signify a settlement

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 707 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 150 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5982) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (2368 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (707 x 100 oz per contract) equals 764,300 OZ OR 23.77 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (5982 x 100 oz)  + {2368)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (707 x 100 oz )which equals 764,300 oz standing OR 23.77 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DECEMBER.

WE GAINED 39 CONTRACTS OR 3900 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO ACCEPT A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATE A FIAT BONUS

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 19.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 23.77 TONNES STANDING FOR DECEMBER

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  633,236.234 oz or   19.696 tonnes*
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,246,046.616 oz 256/486 tonnes
*however we have 18.606 tonnes of gold ALREADY SERVED UPON against dealer inventory of 19.696 tonnes and so far we have had no settlements  as of yet.  We generally get a settlement when we see an adjustment from the dealer side to the customer side..
we have a total of 23.77 tonnes of gold standing for metal against only 19.696 tonnes of dealer gold and nothing has been settled so far…

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 98 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

STRANGE:  GOLD IS COMING INTO THE COMEX BUT NOT SETTLING. GOLDMAN SACHS IS THE ONLY STOPPER (RECEIVER) OF GOLD ALONG WITH ONE JPMORGAN CUSTOMER.

TODAY”

072 H GOLDMAN 416
323 C HSBC 46
323 H HSBC 640
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 11
661 C JP MORGAN 150
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
686 C INTL FCSTONE 3 1
690 C ABN AMRO 18
737 C ADVANTAGE 52 48
800 C RCG 12 8
905 C ADM 8
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 707 707
MONTH TO DATE: 5,982

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

DEC INITIAL standings/SILVER

DEC 7, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
18,879.500 oz
oz
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
504,803.995 oz
CNT
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
114,201.500
oz
CNT
JPM??
No of oz served today (contracts)
128
CONTRACT(S)
640,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
502 contracts
2,510,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3328 contracts

(16,640,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) into CNT: 504,803.995 oz

total dealer deposits: 504,803.995 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: 18,879.500 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.55 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.03% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

 

ii) Into CNT: 95,322.000 oz??

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 114,201.500  oz

we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of Scotia:  18,879.500
and this landed into JPMorgan

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 18,879.500  oz

 

we had 1 adjustments

i) Out of CNT:  55,324.190 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  88.355 million

total dealer + customer silver:  295.622  million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2018. contract month is represented by 128 contract(s) FOR 640,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3328 x 5,000 oz = 16,640,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (630) and the number of notices served upon today (128 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2018 contract month: 3328(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC( 630) -number of notices served upon today (128)x 5000 oz equals 19,150,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 16 contracts or 80,000 additional oz will stand and these guys refused to accept a London based forward as well as negating to accept a fiat bonus. The EFP route is nothing but a cash settlement process and it is done in London to avoid detection.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 63,128 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 66,965 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 66965 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 334 million OZ  47.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.73-% (DEC 7/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.73% to NAV (DEC 7 /2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.73%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.55/TRADING 12.01/DISCOUNT 4.29

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.35/A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759/73 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 26/WITH GOLD DOWN 65 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

 

NOV 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 7.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 758.21 tonnes

*IN LAST 511 TRADING DAYS: 175.43 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 411 TRADING DAYS: A NET 15.43 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

NOV 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ

NOV 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

 

 

DEC 7/2018:

 

Inventory 318.735 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.50/ and libor 6 month duration 2.89

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .39

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.73%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.11

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.42

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Irish Central Bank Refuses To Discuss Gold Reserves In Bank of England Vaults

– As Brexit looms, the Central Bank of Ireland has refused to discuss the location and value of Irish gold reserves
– No date given for removal of “commercially sensitive” gold reserves from Bank of England vaults

Bank of England vaults in London believed to hold almost €200 million of Irish gold
– Ireland’s financial system & economy is hugely exposed to a Brexit downturn

via Irish Independent:

IRELAND’S Central Bank has refused to say if it plans to move almost €200m worth of gold bars from the vaults of the Bank of England as a result of Brexit, insisting that any such move would be “commercially sensitive”.

The gold reserves have been held by its UK counterpart for a number of years, and the Central Bank has traditionally been coy on the precise details of the reserves, and the terms of the arrangement it has with the Bank of England.

It refused to be drawn yesterday on whether the reserves would be removed from the Bank of England either before or after the Brexit deadline of next March.

“It is for the Central Bank to determine how Ireland’s gold reserves ought to be managed,” a spokeswoman told the Irish Independent.

“The Central Bank’s portfolio is managed in line with approved parameters, which are kept under regular review and we report on key activities and developments in our annual report,” she added.

“The Central Bank’s transactions in gold are commercially sensitive and no further comment can be made at this time,” she said.

The latest Central Bank annual report shows that it had €209.3m worth of gold and gold receivables on its books at the end of 2017.

It’s believed that included €193.5m worth of fine gold held as gold bars with the Bank of England, and an additional amount of gold coins held at the Central Bank.

Editors note: This is an important story which we have covered quite frequently over the years and indeed have prompted politicians and journalists to ask questions about. Hopefully, on this occasion the story gets a bit of traction and there is a debate about the location, value and actual ownership of Irish gold reserves.

Ireland’s gold reserves and indeed the private ownership of gold by Irish investors, pension funds etc is important given the risks posed to Ireland today.

Ireland’s financial system and economy is hugely exposed to a Brexit downturn with more than a quarter of lending by main Irish banks to borrowers in the UK as reported by the Irish Independent today.

Institutional gold vaults are now available in Ireland for the first time via GoldCore and its storage partners. We will be giving the Central Bank of Ireland a call to see if we can assist them with repatriating the Irish gold reserves to where they belong – in secure vaults in Ireland.

 

Related Content

Does Bank Of England Hold €235 Million Of Irish Gold Reserves? (GoldCore)

UK bank sits on a pot of €235m in Irish gold (GoldCore via Irish Independent)

 

Secure Storage Ireland – Click here for information

 

News and Commentary

Gold notches a gain as stock market tumbles amid intensifying U.S.-China clash (MarketWatch.com)

Gold notches a gain as stock market tumbles amid intensifying U.S.-China clash (MarketWatch.com)

Gold climbs to near 5-month peak as dollar, stocks decline (CNBC.com)

Gold-backed ETFs up on stock volatility in November (Reuters.com)

Dow rebounds from 780-point plunge, ends day just slightly lower (CNBC.com)

Venezuelan officials seek meeting with Bank of England over gold repatriation (Reuters.com)


Source: Gold.org

Global gold backed ETF flows are now positive in 2018 (Gold.org)

Gold tends to bottom quicker and display an inverse correlation to risk assets. (MarketWatch.com)

Why buy gold now? Because I don’t know (SovereignMan.com)

The Art Of Defaulting (ValueWalk.com)

Panic Buying Hits Palladium Market: What Comes Next? (GoldSeek.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

06 Dec: USD 1,236.45, GBP 971.48 & EUR 1,091.66 per ounce
05 Dec: USD 1,236.15, GBP 970.13 & EUR 1,090.16 per ounce
04 Dec: USD 1,239.25, GBP 966.74 & EUR 1,086.45 per ounce
03 Dec: USD 1,231.05, GBP 966.00 & EUR 1,084.92 per ounce
30 Nov: USD 1,220.45, GBP 956.95 & EUR 1,073.75 per ounce
29 Nov: USD 1,226.25, GBP 960.03 & EUR 1,077.87 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

06 Dec: USD 14.38, GBP 11.28 & EUR 12.68 per ounce
05 Dec: USD 14.48, GBP 11.34 & EUR 12.75 per ounce
04 Dec: USD 14.55, GBP 11.35 & EUR 12.77 per ounce
03 Dec: USD 14.39, GBP 11.31 & EUR 12.69 per ounce
30 Nov: USD 14.24, GBP 11.16 & EUR 12.52 per ounce
29 Nov: USD 14.26, GBP 11.17 & EUR 12.55 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– “Fake Markets” To Lead to Global Financial Crisis? – Goldnomics Podcast
– Gold Is “Coiled” and Looks Set To Surge Like Natural Gas — Bloomberg Intelligence
– “Collapse Of Civilisation Is On The Horizon” – Attenborough Warns World Leaders
– Deutsche Bank May Cause The Next Global Crisis
– Ireland’s Mr Gold Reveals Nuggets Of Wisdom For When The Next Crash Comes
– BREXIT May Lead to UK Property Crash and Depression
– General Motors And General Electric Highlight The Ponzi Scheme That Is The US Economy
– A Worldwide Debt Default Is A Real Possibility
– Risk of Lower Lows in Gold Remains Prior to Spectacular Rally to Follow
– Gold and Silver Hold Firm as Stocks and Oil Lower in to US Holiday Weekend

Watch on Youtube here

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
ii) GATA stories
Brandon White of Pallisades writes that the LBMA is now less clear than before.  You will recall that they wanted to be more transparent.  Instead they are less transparent and it is no doubt that they are trying to hide central bank intervention
(courtesy Brandon White/GATA)

Brandon White: Arctic trails, winter gales, and gold’s secret tales

 Section: 

2:55p ET Thursday, December 6, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The London Bullion Market Association’s new format for reporting gold trading by its members is less complete and understandable than the previous one, BMG Group market analyst Brandon White writes today for Palisade Research. Essentially, White writes, the LBMA appears to be preventing disclosure of central bank intervention in the gold market. His analysis is headlined “Arctic Trails, Winter Gales, and Gold’s Secret Tales” and it’s posted at Palisade Research’s internet site here:

https://palisade-research.com/golds-secrets/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

GOOD LUCK TO THE VENEZUELANS WHO ARE TRYING TO REPATRIATE THEIR LAST 14 TONNES OF GOLD

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

Venezuelan officials seek meeting with Bank of

England over gold repatriation,sources tell Reuters

 Section: 

By Mayela Armas
Reuters
Thursday, December 6, 2018

CARACAS — Two high-ranking Venezuelan officials are traveling to London with plans to meet with the Bank of England over the repatriation of $550 million in gold held in the bank’s coffers, according to two sources with knowledge of the situation.

The government of President Nicolas Maduro is seeking to bring 14 tonnes of gold back to Venezuela because of fears it could be caught up in international sanctions on the country, sources told Reuters this month.

… 

 

The gold is a crucial asset for the struggling OPEC nation, where hyperinflation is expected to reach 1 million percent this year and a broad economic collapse has fueled an exodus of some 3 million people since 2015.

Maduro’s critics, including exiled opposition leader Julio Borges, have argued that the gold should not be repatriated because it could be used to finance corruption.

Finance Minister Simon Zerpa, who is under sanction by the United States over corruption concerns, and Central Bank Chief Calixto Ortega plan to discuss the issue with Bank of England officials on Friday, said the sources, who asked not to be identified. …

The Trump administration levied a new round of sanctions a month ago against Venezuela meant to disrupt its gold exports.

But blocking repatriation of Venezuela’s gold would be politically explosive for the Bank of England.

The bank offers gold custodian services to many developing countries, which would likely be concerned that they could be targeted for having adversarial relationships with Washington. …

… For the remainders of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-gold/venezuela-officials-se…

END




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

London metals trader told CFTC, Justice about JPM’s market rigging 7 years ago

 Section: 

1:20p ET Friday, December 7, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

London metals trader Andrew Maguire, interviewed today by King World News, says he alerted the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Justice Department seven years ago to the gold and silver market rigging done by a JPMorganChase trader who recently confessed in a plea bargain with the Justice Department.

Maguire says the Justice Department’s intervention here, which has delayed civil lawsuits against the investment bank, aims to buy time so higher-ups can be protected.

Maguire’s interview is excerpted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/whistleblower-andrew-maguire-a-trip-down-the-r…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

I have been watching the comex gold deliveries this month and we have seen a big change.  For one, instead of gold deliveries morphing into London based forwards, we are witnessing more gold standing at the comex.  To tell you the truth, I did not pay attention to the fact  that the stoppers or users of the deliveries were to a large extent Goldman Sachs and one major player from JPMorgan..
something must be afoot
(courtesy Jesse’s Cafe Americaine)

What Do China And Goldman Sachs Have In Common?

 

Gold is not only flowing from West to East.

It is also flowing into the house account at Goldman Sachs.  Or at least the paper claims for it in New York.

Below is the monthly report showing the large amounts of physical gold which have been steadily flowing through the Shanghai markets into strong hands in China.

Few commentators are talking about this.

What is less familiar, and what I have not read about much, is the very large amount of gold that Goldman Sachs has been taking delivery on the Comex this month.

Below are a few of the clearing reports below.

Notice that the big takers are the house account at Goldman, and some presumably large customer at JPM.

What’s up with that?

end

 

________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.8815/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8881   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 0.71 POINTS OR 0.03%

. HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 92.62 POINTS OR 0.82%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 177.06 POINTS OR 0.82%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.95/Euro FALLS TO 1.1370

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.06/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.80/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 51.86 and Brent: 60.84

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.25%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 3.16% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.46%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.91: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.23

3k Gold at $1240.40 silver at:14.49   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 7/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.93

3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.85DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9933 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1294 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.25%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.88% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.14%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3314

 

S&P Futures Slide, Europe Jumps As Traders Beg For

Chaotic Week To Week

There is a sense of almost detached resignation amid trading desks as we enter the last trading day of a chaotic, volatile week that has whipsawed and stopped out virtually everyone after the Nasdaq saw the biggest intraday reversal since April, and pattern and momentum trading has become impossible with one headline tape-bomb following another.

After yesterday furious tumble and sharp, last hour rebound, US equity futures are once again lower expecting fresh developments in the Huawei CFO arrest and trade war saga while today’s payroll report may redirect the Fed’s tightening focus in wage growth comes in hotter than the 3.1% expected; at the same time European stocks have rebounded from their worst day in more than two years while Asian shares posted modest gains as investors sought to end a bruising week on a more upbeat note. While stock trading was far calmer than Thursday, signs of stress remained just below the surface as the dollar jumped, Treasuries rose and oil whipsawed amid fears Iran could scuttle today’s OPEC deal.

The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was up 0.3% on the day, on track to end the week down 2%.

After Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index sharp drop on Thursday, which tumbled the most since the U.K. voted to leave the EU in 2016, Friday saw Europe’s broadest index jump 1.2% as every sector rallied following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall Street where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump.

Technology stocks lead gains on Stoxx 600 Index, with the SX8P Index up as much as 2.3%, outperforming the 1.1% gain in the wider index; Nokia topped the sector index with a 5.9% advance in Helsinki after Thursday’s public holiday, having missed out on initial gains from rival Huawei’s troubles that earlier boosted Ericsson. Inderes said the arrest of Huawei CFO over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran will benefit Nokia and Ericsson, who are the main rivals of Huawei and ZTE. Similarly, Jefferies wrote in a note on Chinese networks that China may have to offer significant concessions to buy Huawei an “out of jail” card and reach a trade deal, with China’s tech subsidies and “buy local” policies potentially under attack. “For example, why would Nokia and Ericsson have only 20% share in China’s 4G market,” analysts wrote.

Meanwhile, energy names were volatile as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). The news sent Fresenius BBB- rated bonds tumbling, renewing fears of a deluge of “fallen angels.”  On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades.

Earlier in the session, Japanese equities outperformed as most Asian gauges nudged higher. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan nudged up 0.2%, though that followed a 1.8 percent drubbing on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.8 percent. Chinese shares, which were up earlier in the day, slipped into negative territory with the blue chips off 0.1 percent.

 

E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 also started firmer but were last down 0.4 percent. Markets face a test from U.S. payrolls data later in the session amid speculation that the U.S. economy is heading for a tough patch after years of solid growth.

Will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base?The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-than expected 250k reading last month.Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. DB’s economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969.

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confused traders when late on Thursday, he emphasized the strength of the labor market, throwing a wrench into trader expectations the Fed is poised to pause tightening – arguably the catalyst for Thursday’s market-closing ramp following a WSJ article which reported Fed officials were considering whether to signal a new wait-and-see mentality after a likely rate increase at their meeting in December.

While Friday’s market has stabilized, for many the recent gyrations are just too much. For Dennis Debusschere, head of portfolio strategy at Evercore ISI, there’s still far too much risk to wade back into a market this riven by volatility. Overall still untradeable in our opinion, until we get more clarity on trade and we think it will pay to wait this out,” he wrote in a note to clients Thursday. “That being said, our desk is open for business if you’re feeling up to trading this backdrop.”

Meanwhile, the big question is what happens next year: “The big question mark still is what’s going to happen in 2019” with the Fed, Omar Aguilar, CIO of equities and multi-asset strategies at Charles Schwab, told Bloomberg TV. “The jobs report could easily be the catalyst that will tell us a little more about what the path may be.”

Expecting that a big slowdown is coming, interest rate futures rallied hard in massive volumes with the market now pricing in less than half a hike next year, compared to just a month ago when they had been betting on more than two increases. Treasuries extended their blistering rally, driving 10-year yields down to a three-month trough at 2.8260 percent, before last trading at 2.8863 percent. Yields on two-year notes fell a huge 10 basis points at one stage on Thursday and were last at 2.75 percent. Investors also steamrolled the yield curve to its flattest in over a decade, a trend that has historically presaged economic slowdowns and even recessions.

The seismic shock spread far and wide. Yields on 10-year paper sank to the lowest in six months in Germany, almost 12 months in Canada and 16 months in Australia. Italian debt climbed as European bonds largely drifted.

The greenback advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers ahead of U.S. jobs data that are expected to show hiring slowed last month. The pound fell as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was said to be weighing a plan to postpone the vote on her Brexit deal.

In commodity markets, gold firmed to near a five-month peak as the dollar eased and the threat of higher interest rates waned. Spot gold stood 0.1 percent higher at $1,239.49 per ounce. Oil was less favored, however, falling further as OPEC delayed a decision on output cuts while awaiting support from non-OPEC heavyweight Russia. Brent futures fell 0.5 percent to $59.77 a barrel, while U.S. crude also lost half a percent to $51.19. Cryptocurrencies continued their collapse with fresh losses after U.S. regulators dashed hopes that a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund would appear before the end of this year.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,680.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 347.69
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 151.21
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 485.67
  • Nikkei up 0.8% to 21,678.68
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,620.45
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 26,063.76
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.03% to 2,605.89
  • Sensex up 0.9% to 35,631.53
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,681.49
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,075.76
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.244%
  • Euro down 0.05% to $1.1368
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 13.9 bps to 2.835%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.46%
  • Brent futures up 0.2% to $60.16/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,239.70
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.88

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The arrest of Huawei Technologies Co. Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran has triggered a debate in China over whether to carry on with trade talks with the U.S. or link the two issues and retaliate; Meng will have a bail hearing Friday to determine whether she is a flight risk and should remain in detention during proceedings on extradition to the U.S.
  • Oil extended losses near $51 a barrel after OPEC entered a second day of talks in an attempt to draw up a deal to cut output. Iran sees no possibility of agreeing to reduce its output, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said Friday
  • Theresa May met with her top ministers in London on Thursday to discuss options of delaying the Dec. 11 Parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal to avoid a landslide defeat that would risk a major U.K. political crisis, according to a person familiar with the matter
  • EU leaders are poised to turn their next summit into a Brexit crisis meeting, but so far, it doesn’t look like they’re willing to offer her anything that could help to break the deadlock in the U.K. Parliament
  • Angela Merkel’s long exit from politics begins Friday when her party gathers in Hamburg to decide whether to appoint her chosen successor as its new leader or break with the legacy of her 13 years in charge of Germany
  • Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria has complained that he is the victim of one ambush after another as his future is called into question amid tensions with populist leaders over a spending spree to fund election policies, according to newspaper Il Giornale

Asian stocks saw cautious gains with the region getting an early tailwind after the sharp rebound on Wall St, where most majors inished lower albeit off worse levels as tech recovered and the DJIA clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) were both higher at the open but gradually pared some of the gains as the risk tone began to turn cautious heading into today’s key-risk NFP jobs data. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp (U/C) were indecisive amid further PBoC inaction in which it remained net neutral for a 5th consecutive week and with the upcoming Chinese trade data over the weekend adding to tentativeness, while pharmaceuticals were the worst hit due to concerns of price declines from the government’s centralized procurement program. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat amid a similar picture in T-note futures and although early selling pressure was seen in Japanese bonds alongside the strong open in stocks, prices later recovered as the risk appetite somewhat dissipated.

Top Asian News

  • China’s FX Reserves Rose Despite Intervention, Outflow Signs
  • Hong Kong May Slip Into Recession in 2019, Deutsche Bank Warns
  • SoftBank Seeks to Assuage Investors on Pre-IPO Mobile Outage
  • Southeast Asia Reserves Recover a Bit in November as Rout Eases

European equities extended on gains from the cash open (Eurostoxx 50 +1.2%) following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall St where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump. Meanwhile, energy names are volatile (currently marginally underperforming) as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades.

Top European News

  • LandSec, Undeterred by Brexit, Makes New Bet on London Offices
  • Danske Says It’s Looking Into Selling Its Swedish Pension Assets
  • Chinese Group Agrees to Buy Amer Sports in $5.2 Billion Deal
  • Bad Air Warnings in London And Paris Peak With Fish And Chips

Currencies: 

  • DXY – Typically rangebound trade in the run up to US labour data, and with markets also monitoring OPEC+ headlines as a decision on whether to cut output and if so by how much remains highly uncertain. The index is hovering just under the 97.000 handle within a 96.767-96.931 band, and well within nearest technical support and resistance levels at 96.300 and 97.311 respectively.
  • GBP – A marginal G10 underperformer as Cable retreats back below 1.2750 from just above 1.2800 at one stage, but this could be more flow-related rather than anything fundamental as Eur/Gbp rallied towards 0.8930 peaks from just under the big figure into the Frankfurt fixing before drifting back again. However, Halifax house prices were much weaker than expected and latest Brexit news is hardly Sterling supportive given more speculation about delaying the meaningful vote to try and avoid a resounding rejection, even though the Government appears to be resolute and standing firm on December 11.
  • NZD/AUD – The Kiwi is at the opposite end of a relatively narrow Usd/Major spectrum, and like the Pound also impacted by indirect factors to a degree, if not in the main. Indeed, Nzd/Usd remains capped ahead of 0.6900, but Aud/Nzd is pivoting 1.0500 as the Aussie unit continues to feel the adverse effects of recent bearish impulses, namely softer than forecast Q3 GDP and a more dovish RBA via Debelle. Hence, Aud/Usd is softer between 0.7210-40 parameters and bound to be wary of huge option expiries from 0.7250-60 in 6.6 bn that form a formidable barrier ahead of circa 1.2 bn up at 0.7300.
  • EUR/JPY – In the pre-NFP ‘hiatus’ and awaiting anything further on the Italian budget front, option expiries may also exert directional impetus on Eur/Usd and Usd/Jpy, as the former faces 2+ bn at the 1.1400 strike and latter is flanked by 1+ bn at 112.50 and 113.00.
  • CAD – The Loonie has pared a bit more lost ground from recent lows, albeit partly due to a broad Usd retracement, eyeing OPEC and also Canada’s jobs report given latest BoC guidance indicating even greater data dependency. Usd/Cad currently just shy of the 1.3400 mark vs 1.3440+ at one stage yesterday.

In commodities, WTI (+0.2%) and Brent (+0.9%) are choppy in what was a volatile session thus far as comments from energy ministers emerged ahead of the key OPEC+ meeting, after yesterday’s OPEC talks ended with no deal for the first time in almost five years. Brent rose after source reports noted that Moscow are ready to cut output by 200k BPD (below OPEC’s desire of 250k-300k but above Russia’s prior “maximum” of 150k) if OPEC are willing to curb production by over 1mln BPD. Prices then fell to session lows following a less constructive tone from Saudi Energy Minister who reiterated that he is not confident there will be a deal today, which came after delegates noted that OPEC talks are focused on a combined OPEC+ cut of 1mln BPD (650k from OPEC and 350k from Non-OPEC). Markets are awaiting the start of the OPEC+ meeting after delegates stated that talks are at deadlocked as Iran appears to be the main sticking point to an OPEC deal, though sources emerged stating that Iran, Venezuela and Libya are set to get exemptions from cuts, adding that OPEC and Russia are looking for a symbolic production commitment from Iran as fears arise that Iran may not be able to follow-through on curb pledges due to US sanctions. In terms of metals, gold hovers around session highs and is set for the best week since August with the USD trading in a tight range ahead of the key US jobs data later today, while London copper rose over a percent is underpinned by the positive risk tone.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 198,000, prior 250,000
    • Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%; Underemployment Rate, prior 7.4%
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
  • 8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.5
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 0.2%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97, prior 97.5; Current Conditions, prior 112.3; Expectations, prior 88.1
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $15.0b, prior $10.9b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The age of innocence has truly gone in financial markets after a turbulent 24 hours but one that saw a spectacular rally after Europe closed last night and one that has steadily carried on in Asia overnight (more on this below). Before we get to that I’m on an intense client marketing roadshow at the moment on the 2019 Credit outlook and there are a litany of worries out there from investors. Maybe I’m trying to be too cute here but I think the problems we’re seeing in credit at the moment are more of a “ghost of Xmas future” rather than a sign of an imminent disaster scenario. However my overall confidence that credit will blow up around the end of this cycle has only intensified in the last couple of weeks. Liquidity is awful in credit and it’s been a broken two way market for several years (probably as long as I’ve worked in it – 24 years). However this has got worse this cycle as the size of the market has grown rapidly but dealer balance sheets have reduced. As such you can buy massive size at new issue but your ability to sell in secondary is constrained to a small percentage of this. This didn’t matter much when inflows dominated – as they mostly did in this cycle pre-2018 – but in a year of outflows across the board the lack of a proper two way  market is increasingly being felt. As discussed I don’t think this is the start of the crisis yet but be warned that when this economic cycle does roll over or even starts to operate at stall speed the credit market will be very messy and will influence other markets again.

On the positive side and despite a very steep mid-session selloff, US markets ultimately closed well off the lows. The DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ finished -0.32%, -0.15% and +0.42% respectively, though they traded as low as -3.14%, -2.91%, and -2.43% respectively, around noon in New York. At its lows, the S&P 500 was on course for its worst two-session stretch since February, and before that you’d have to go back to August 2015 or 2011 to find the last episode with as steep a two-day drop. The DOW and S&P 500 dipped into negative territory for the year again, but clawed back and are now +0.92% and +0.84% YTD (+3.16% and +2.69% on a total return basis). The NASDAQ has clung to its outperformance, as it is now up +4.13% this year, or +5.20% on a total return basis, though of course the difference is narrower in the low-dividend paying, high-growth tech index.

Unsurprisingly, the moves yesterday coincided with higher volatility with the VIX climbing as much as +5.2pts to 25.94 and pretty much back to the October highs, though it too rallied alongside the equity market to end close to flat at 21.15. Meanwhile, the price action was even uglier in Europe as the US lows were around the close. The STOXX 600 plunged -3.09% and is down -4.22% in two days – the most in two days since June 2016. Nowhere was safe. The DAX (-3.48%), CAC (-3.32%), FTSE MIB (-3.54%) and IBEX (-2.75%) all saw huge moves lower. The DAX has now joined the Italy’s FSTEMIB in bear market territory, as it is now -20.49% off its highs earlier this year. The FTSEMIB is down -24.04% from its highs. European Banks – which were already down nearly -27% YTD going into yesterday – tumbled -4.29% for the biggest daily fall since May and the third biggest since immediately after Brexit. The index is now at the lowest since October 2016 and within 17% of the June 2016 lows all of a sudden. US Banks fell -1.87%, though they had dipped -4.3% at their troughs to touch the lowest level since September 2017.

As for credit, HY cash spreads in Europe and the US were +8.5bps and +14.8bps wider respectively. For context, US spreads are now at the widest since December 2016 and this is the best performing broad credit market over the last couple of years. In bond markets, 10y Treasuries rallied-2.4bps but was as much as 9bps lower intra-day. Thanks to an outperformance at the front end (two-year fell -3.7bps), the 2s10s curve actually ended a shade steeper at 13.0bps (+1.3bps on the day). However that move for the 10y now puts it at the lowest since September at 2.89%, and only +48.6bps above where we started the year. The spread on the Dec 19 to Dec 18 eurodollar contract – indicative for what is priced into Fed hikes for next year – is down to just 16bps. It was at 60bps in October. This certainly appears to be too low, though a Wall Street Journal article yesterday seemed to signal a willingness by the Fed to moderate its pace of rate hikes. Finally, in Europe, Bunds closed -4.1bps lower at 0.236%.

Quite amazing moves with Bunds continuing to defy all fundamental logic and trading instead as a risk-off lightning rod. There was some talk that the sharp moves lower at the open yesterday were exaggerated by the unexpected midweek close for markets in the US which resulted in futures systems failing to be programmed to adjust and orders backing up. However the combination of a -2.25% drop for WTI (-5.2% at the lows) post the OPEC meeting (more below) and the Huawei story that we mentioned yesterday certainly aided to the initial malaise. There was some talk that both the Chinese and US authorities would have been aware of the arrest before last weekend’s talks and as such this story shouldn’t be necessarily a threat to the truce, though Reuters reported last night that President Trump did not know about the planned arrest. The implications of this are unclear, since it could mean that Trump has less direct control over the arresting agency, but it could also indicate that the move is not part of trade policy. Either way, how this development will be key for the market moving forward, especially any response from Chinese officials.

This morning in Asia markets are largely trading higher with the Nikkei (+0.60%), Hang Seng (+0.21%), Shanghai Comp (+0.08%) and Kospi (+0.51%) all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.11%) are pointing towards a flattish start. Meantime crude oil (WTI -0.39% and Brent -0.60%) prices are continuing to trade lower this morning. It wouldn’t be an EMR worth it’s place in the daily schedule without an Italy and Brexit update. As we go to print Italian daily La Stampa has reported that the Italian Premier Conte and Deputy Premier Di Maio are in favour of the resignation of Finance Minister Tria while Deputy Premier Salvini is against his resignation. So signs of tension. In the U.K. a few press articles (like Bloomberg) are suggesting that PM May is considering postponing Tuesday’s big vote. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of substance to the story at the moment but it mentions going back to the EU for concessions on the Irish backstop as one possibility. How the EU will feel would be the obvious question.

As mentioned earlier, oil had a difficult session yesterday, falling back to its recent lows with WTI touching a $50 handle and Brent trading back below $60 per barrel. The first day of the OPEC summit did not appear promising for the odds of a new production deal, as the ministers apparently discussed a 1 million barrel per day cut, below the 1.5 million needed to balance the market.The Libyan oil minister abruptly left before the day’s meetings concluded, and the organization canceled their scheduled press conference. The Russian delegation will join the OPEC contingent today in an effort to finalize a deal, but Saudi Energy Minister al-Falih said that “Russia is not ready for a substantial cut.” Watch this space today.

Overnight, the Fed Chair Powell delivered an upbeat message on the US economy and the Job market ahead of today’s payrolls release. He said, “our economy is currently performing very well overall, with strong job creation and gradually rising wages,’’ while adding, “in fact, by many national-level measures, our labour market is very strong.’’ Elsewhere, the Fed’s John Williams said yesterday that the biggest challenge which the policy makers are facing is achieving a soft landing. He said, “we have a pretty strong economy — unemployment pretty low, inflation near our goal — it’s just managing a soft landing, keeping this expansion going for the next few years.”

So will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. Our US economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969.

Going into that, yesterday’s ADP employment change report for November was a tad disappointing at 179k (vs. 195k expected) while more interestingly the recent tick up in initial jobless claims held with the print coming in at 231k. The four-week moving average is now 228k and the highest since April having gotten as low as 206k in September. So the climb, while not yet at  concerning levels, is certainly notable and worth watching now on a week to week basis. As for the other interesting data points yesterday, the October trade deficit was confirmed as reaching a new cyclical wide. The ISM non-manufacturing print for November was a relative positive after coming in at 60.7, up 0.4pts from October and ahead of expectations for a decline to 59.0. Worth noting is that the three-month moving average of non-manufacturing ISM is now the highest on record which is a fairly reliable lead indicator for private nonfarm payrolls. US durable goods orders for October were revised slightly higher to -4.3% mom  from -4.4%, though the core measures stayed at 0.0% mom. Factory orders declined -2.1% mom, though both were nevertheless higher year-on-year.

As for the day ahead, the aforementioned November employment in the US will no doubt be front and centre, however, prior to that, we’ve October industrial production prints in Germany and France, along with Q3 labour costs in the former, and the final Q3 GDP revisions for the Euro Area (no change from +0.2% qoq second reading expected). We’ll also get the monthly inflation reporting for November in the UK. Also due out in the US is October wholesale inventories and trade sales, the preliminary December University of Michigan survey and October consumer credit. November foreign reserves data in China is also expected out at some point. Away from that the OPEC/OPEC+ meeting moves into the final day while the ECB’s Coeure and Fed’s Brainard are scheduled to speak. Today is also the day that Germany’s ruling CDU party elects a new chair to succeed Merkel. Our FX strategists noted yesterday that according to polls, the result should be a close call between general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karranbauer (AKK) and Friedrich Merz. Broadly speaking, AKK stands for a continuation of the Merkel-era strategy of positioning the CDU at the centre of the political spectrum, whereas Merz stands for a sharpening of the party’s traditional profile as a centre-right party. Last night our German economics team put out a piece explaining the event and suggesting that Merz would be good for the DAX and AKK good for the Euro.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.71 POINTS OR 0.03% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 92.62 POINTS OR 0.82% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 177.06 OR 0.82%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.37%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8815 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 51.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8815AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8881: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

END

3 C CHINA

The following is a must must read as Luongo explains the folly of Trump’s trade wars and how ultimately the USA will fall

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 

Mr. Tariff Ups The Ante On China

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Donald Trump just jumped the shark calling himself, “Mr. Tariff.”  He believes a trade deficit is akin to stealing the wealth of a nation.  It isn’t.

Under normal conditions a trade deficit is simply a reflection of the difference in comparative advantage of one country’s workers over another.  And the value of the currency is supposed to rise and fall to offset that state of affairs over time.

Donald Trump has, in the words of David Stockman, “A 17th century view on global trade.”

It is one born of a complete misunderstanding of how and why trade imbalances occur, why they will re-balance if allowed and why, ultimately, they are irrelevant.

But, Trump can’t or won’t see it that way.  He refuses to accept that we are the creators of our persistent trade deficit with China. That the trade deficit stems from running budget deficits and applying Keynesian counter-cyclical monetary policy or, worse, QE to protect domestic asset prices.

It also stems from our being the world’s reserve currency which places an insane demand on the Fed to keep the flow of dollars rising to liquefy global trade.

He complains that international tariffs regimes are unfair.  But, as Stockman has consistently pointed out tariff levels globally are nearly non-existent running at around 3% on average.  This is the period of freest trade we’ve seen in the era of the modern nation state, but Trump looks at these niggling things, these small things and can’t see the forest for them.

Mr. Inflexible

It speaks of ideological possession on the subject.  It speaks to inflexibility of mind.

“Germany taxes our cars too high, slap a tariff on them.”  He’s obsessed with German car exports.  Germans don’t buy GM’s because they are shitty cars, not because they are more expensive.

A level playing field won’t help a company handed over to the UAW, stiffing the bondholders, and run by morons.  The only reason GM still functions is because they make bad cars to sell to people who can’t afford a good car and ‘patriots’ who buy Silverados instead of F-150s.

“Canada won’t buy our milk,slap on tariffs and threaten NAFTA,” cries Mr. Tariff.  Not that NAFTA shouldn’t just be abolished completely, but whatever, Trump doesn’t believe in free trade, he believes in extortive trade because, ‘Merica First.

If China won’t import our oil but buys Iran’s instead, then they are our enemy then we sanction them and extort higher imports of it.

It’s all childish and immoral in a way that is, frankly, embarrassing to anyone with three working brain cells to rub together and make a spark.

But, the real undercurrent in all of this is Trump’s obsession with China ‘stealing our technology’ and leap-frogging the U.S. as a technology leader.

Which way on Huawei?

And that’s why Huawei’s CFO was arrested in Canada while Trump was negotiating with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping over the weekend over the company violating U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Leaving aside the pure insanity of Canada arresting a Chinese national for her company violating U.S. sanctions on Iran which China was not a party to, this is a dangerous escalation by the U.S. over what is, essentially, something that is ultimately not enforceable, U.S. technology licensing.

It’s simply bullying.  But, since Trump is a bully, what else is new?

But, the real issue here is that, in very short order, Huawei has become a global leader in 5G infrastructure technology which the U.S. is falling behind on.  And now with this arrest Trump is betting that he can scare everyone else into not buying their superior products through the ruinous application of sanctions policies.

The West has been systematically cutting Huawei out of the global 5G rollout because of ‘security’ concerns. More like profit concerns.  It is, simply, typical protectionism by Mr. Tariff himself.

And he’s made no bones about any of this.  Trump has stated quite emphatically that all a policy has to do is pass his ‘America First’ sniff test and it’ll get implemented.

And since he’s not a deep thinker, all he cares about are first-order effects and how he can sell it on his Twitter feed to his now brain-dead base who believes all of this ‘China hacked muh everything’ narrative we’re being inundated with all of a sudden.

Trump knows that now China’s tech industry isn’t just the manufacturing arm of U.S. multinationals.  We’re staring at equivalence in a lot of areas.  And the rate of catch up China is playing in this arena is threatening our long-term competitiveness.

Hence going after Huawei, a phenomenal success story, and ZTE.  While Apple focuses on tactical things like end-user products — phones, watches, and media services — Huawei started there, creating homegrown Chinese variants of the iPhone and built a company focused on the future of communications infrastructure, 5G, with the end-user product the face of the company to build Apple-like brand loyalty in China.

This is the public face of the future trade war.  Will Americans continue buying, say, iPhones and watches over their Chinese knock-off counterparts at half the price?

Flow not Stock, Don

So, I understand completely Trump’s problem with the current situation and the past that led to this state of affairs.  What I disagree with is the magic of tariffs to reverse the flow of capital out of the country.

He’s taken some steps in the right direction — tax cuts, tax amnesty for repatriating offshore corporate profits, lowering certain regulations — but that’s not nearly enough.  It can’t and won’t solve the real problem of the expense of doing business in the U.S.

His critics on the left are right that a lot of those tax breaks didn’t go to fund new sustainable growth and that a lot of it went to fuel buybacks and pay dividends.  But they miss the reason why, it isn’t because Trump wanted to repay his corporate overlords, it’s because idiotic leftist policy inertia and insane monetary policy has kept the cost of business expansion higher than protecting the corporate balance sheet or returning the money to shareholders.

His $1 trillion per year deficit, itself a source of the trade imbalance with China, will explode now that his growth story is dying, emerging markets are starved for dollars, supply chains are freezing up because of the U.S.’s increasingly erratic behavior and debt levels around the world choking out growth.

Trump wants a weaker dollar, and for a little while he may get it as the market misreads what’s happening here.  Any Fed dovishness will be seen as dollar negative versus being globally accommodative to worsening economic conditions amplifying debt servicing costs.

His classic mercantilist mindset will applaud this and it might abate the worsening trade deficit numbers for a time, but it won’t change the trend against him regardless of the Fed raising rates or not in 2019.

The world economy is deflating and Trump’s tariffs, arrests and sanctions only tell people that capital is not welcome in the U.S.  His only saving grace in 2019 is that the leadership in Europe is even dumber on these issues than he is.

The consumer is ultimately sovereign.  It’s their money and its their time.  If you are so arrogant as to believe you are indispensable to your customers you will find out very quickly what they think of that.  And customers of the U.S. dollar are rapidly coming to the conclusion that the cost of doing business in it is too high.

In the game of global capital you don’t have to be good, you just have to treat it slightly better than everyone else to see the inflows come your way.  Trump is alienating everyone and ensuring that companies like Huawei find ways to never do business with the U.S. ever again.

end

China is still acting cool as they prepare on some sort of retaliation to the Huawei CFO arrest

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

China Prepares Retaliation To Huawei CFO Arrest

As Beijing’s outrage over the arrest of Huawei CFO Wanzhou Meng simmers ahead of her Friday arraignment in a Canadian court, Bloomberg has shed some light on how news of her arrest has resonated with different factions in the Chinese leadership.

The upshot is that while officials in charge of managing China’s trade negotiations believe China shouldn’t allow Wanzhou’s arrest to impact trade negotiations, hardline national security officials believethe arrest is an embarrassment to Chinese leader Xi Jinping,who reportedly had ‘no idea’ that the daughter of a Chinese business icon and Communist Party member had been arrested in Canada – and that China should use trade talks as leverage to demand that she be released.

Western media outlets have reported that, while White House officials and National Security Advisor John Bolton knew about Wanzhou’s arrest before Saturday’s meeting between Trump and Xi, the president somehow had no idea.

Now, BBG is reporting that Xi similarly had no idea that one of his country’s most prominent executives had been taken into custody hours before he sat down with Trump. This asymmetry is viewed as deeply embarrassing to China’s leader, and many believe that simply letting trade negotiations to move forward as plan would be an unconscionable capitulation – particularly if (as many analysts believe) the Trump Administration intends to use her arrest as leverage.

 

Still others believe that Wanzhou’s arrest is a “gift” for Xi, because it gives cover for the Chinese to dig in their heels and accuse the US of using the trade war as a pretext to stymie China’s ascent as a global superpower. In light of Wanzhou’s arrest, such a stance would likely garner more sympathy from the rest of the world.

As China contemplates how to respond, at least there is one silver lining:It helps China appear sincere to the world in wanting to resolve the trade war. He can say he is trying to resolve the issue but the US has an entrenched strategy to cut off China’s rise as a global power – a theme that state-run media picked up on Friday.

“The Huawei arrest gives China’s leaders a huge gift,’ said Barry Naughton, a professor at the University of California in San Diego who studies China. “It makes super plausible the narrative they’ve been trying to promote all along: The U.S. just can’t stand our rise, they can’t stand to lose their dominance, they can’t treat anybody like an equal.'”

But one salient fact has been agreed on by all sides: Wanzhou’s arrest doesn’t bode well for a trade detente.

Officials concerned about the economy warned a collapse in trade talks would hurt China more than the Huawei arrest. Trump has threatened to raise tariffs to 25 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods if a deal isn’t reached in 90 days. In the worst case of a 25 percent duty on all Chinese goods, 2019 economic growth could slump about 1.5 percentage points to 5 percent, down from 6.6 forecast for this year, according to Bloomberg Economics.

“The detention of Huawei’s CFO is not an accidental incident and will cast a shadow over the trade talks, but both sides will work hard to avert that bad influence,” said Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of commerce and now a vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges. “The negotiation between Chinese and U.S. working groups is going smoothly, and actually much better than people outside expected.”

Because even if President Xi does opt to continue negotiating as per Saturday’s deal, he will now need to extract even more concessions in order not to look powerless. And although Chinese officials have said they won’t retaliate by arresting US executives – well – we wouldn’t blame any US executives in China for grabbing their passports and chartering a flight to anywhere but China as quickly as humanly possible.

“Ms. Meng’s arrest threatens to make China’s leadership look powerless in securing the release of not only a citizen, but a senior executive and daughter of one of China’s business icons,” said Michael Hirson, Asia director at Eurasia Group and a former U.S. Treasury Department official. “Nationalist sentiment will thus make it harder for Beijing to offer major concessions to Trump.”

Publicly, at least, China is keeping the issues separate. On Thursday, commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng told reporters that China is implementing agreements reached with the U.S. on agriculture, autos and energy. “In the next 90 days we will work in accordance with the clear timetable and road map” to negotiate in areas of mutual benefit, he said.

Then on Friday, foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang dismissed concerns that China would retaliate against U.S. companies.

“China always protects the legal rights and interests of foreigners in China, but they should also abide by all Chinese laws and regulations,” Geng said.

In what’s perhaps the clearest indication of China’s outrage over the arrest, government-run media railed against Meng’s arrest in editorials published on Friday.

“Obviously Washington is resorting to a despicable rogue’s approach as it cannot stop Huawei’s 5G advance in the market,” the Communist Mouthpiece Global Times said in an editorial.

The upshot: If the US tries to use Whenzhou’s arrest as leverage, they could wind up killing a promising deal.

end

Not good: Huawei CFO has been charged with fraud as one of companies subsidiaries, Skycom, concealed the true relationship with Huawei as the subsidiary dealt with Iran and sold them stuff with USA made stuff.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Huawei CFO Charged With Fraud, Deemed “Flight Risk” Whose Bail “Couldn’t Be High Enough”

During the first hearing of Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng, Canadian prosecutors have revealed the charges over which the US is seeking her extradition: She has been accused of conspiracy to defraud banks due to what prosecutors allege was an attempt to cover up transactions involving a Huawei subsidiary that violated US sanctions against Iran.

Appearing in court wearing a green jumpsuit and without handcuffs, Meng reportedly looked to be in good spirits in a Vancouver courtroom where the prosecutions’ case was detailed publicly for the first time. Specifically, the US alleges that Meng helped conceal the company’s true relationship with a firm called Skycom, a subsidiary closely tied to its parent company as it did business with Iran.

Meng used this deception to lure banks into facilitating transactions that violated US sanctions, exposing them to possible fines. The prosecutor didn’t name the banks, but US media on Thursday reported that a federal monitor at HSBC flagged a suspicious transaction involving Huawei to US authorities, according to Bloomberg. Prosecutors also argued that Meng has avoided the US since learning about its probe into possible sanctions violations committed by Huawei,and that she should be held in custody because she’s a flight risk whose bail could not be set high enough.

 

Meng Wenzhou

Before Friday’s hearing, a publication ban prevented details about the charges facing Meng from being released. However, that ban was lifted at the beginning of her hearing. Meng was arrested in Vancouver on Saturday while on her way to Mexico, according to reports in the Canadian Press.

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said Canada’s ambassador in Beijing had briefed the Chinese foreign ministry on Meng’s arrest. The Chinese Embassy in Ottawa had branded Meng’s detention as a “serious violation of human rights” as senior Chinese officials debate the prospects for retaliation. Freeland said McCallum told the Chinese that Canada is simply following its laws – echoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s claim that Meng’s arrest was the result of a legal process happening independent of politics.

Friday’s hearing in Vancouver is just the start of a legal process that could end with Meng being extradited to stand trial in the US. Even if prosecutors believe there is little doubt as to Meng’s guilt, the extradition process could take months or even years.

end

CHINA/USA/

Now that we witness the arrest of Meng on fraud charges, I guess it is safe to say that no American will wish to travel to China.  Employees of  USA owned companies

in China are also very worried

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Cisco “Erroneously” Bans Non-Essential Travel To China

With China reportedly contemplating its “retaliation” alternatives after Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Canada at the request of the DOJ – albeit without anyone in the Trump administration seemingly aware of this – US companies are starting to sweat if China will respond in kind, and are actively reconsidering sending executives to China.

As Bloomberg reports, one such company is US tech giant Cisco, which according to unconfirmed social media reports was restricting non-essential travel by U.S.-based employees into China. However, once news of the tentative travel ban emerged, the California-based maker of computer networking gear told Bloomberg the email was sent to some employees “in error” and that normal business travel to China continues.

It was not clear just how a company can send an email to its employees preventing them from traveling to China erroneously, but we are confident this will be only the first of many such errors to come.

Meanwhile, as Reuters reported officials from major U.S. companies at a meeting in Singapore on Thursday “voiced concerns about retaliation against American firms and their executives.” Several attendees said their companies were considering restricting travel to China and looking to move meetings outside the country.

As Bloomberg adds, the US tech industry is roiled by the escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies and the prospect of crippling tariffs on American products made in China and exported globally. Companies such as Cisco and Apple trade with, manufacture in and buy components from China, with executives traveling regularly between the two regions.

So for those – such as JPM’s Marko Kolanovic – who believe last weekend’s G-20 summit was a prelude to a new golden age in Sino-US relations, perhaps consider how many stop logic circuit breakers will be needed for the CME to halt the crash if and when a flashing red headline pops up that Beijing has ordered the arrest of a major US CEO whether in China, or – as the US did – anywhere else in the world.

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE

France overtakes Denmark and Sweden as the most taxed nation on earth.

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Les Miserables? France Overtakes Denmark As World’s

Most Taxed Nation

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Congratulations are in order. France just topped Denmark as the most taxed nation.

The OECD reports Tax Revenues Rise.

The 2018 edition of the OECD’s annual Revenue Statisticspublication shows that the OECD average tax-to-GDP ratio rose slightly in 2017, to 34.2%, compared to 34.0% in 2016. The OECD average is now higher than at any previous point, including its earlier peaks of 33.8% in 2000 and 33.6% in 2007.

France Overtakes Denmark

The tax collection blue ribbon now goes to France. Congratulations!

Vs the OECD average of 34.2%, French taxes amount to 46.2% of GDP. Denmark, Sweden, Italy, and Greece round out the top five.

In addition to the blue ribbon, what else does France get?

Riots

Amusingly, it was a promise delivered: Macron Promised a Revolution, He Got One, Against Himself

In response, I offer this bit of political advice: Politicians Beware: It’s Best Not to Deliver What You Actually Promise.

How Did This All Start?

Good question.

Macron raised diesel taxes to pay for the global warming reduction effort that he campaigned for.

Where Are We Now?

That’s another good question.

In response to the riots, please note: France Suspends Diesel Tax Hike.

Musical Tribute

I am certain readers would like a fitting musical tribute to these events. I posted this before but who can resist another Beatles tribute?

Comment of the Day

Mike Mish Shedlock@MishGEA

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/france-suspends-diesel-tax-hike-yts2FV2qjE-p54OAVxCXDw/2018-12-04T22:31:57.8742490Z/lLDi9CCWYka0oKS6SpquOQ/ 

Comment of the day from my blog

“A bunch of rich people get together and decide that they need to fight climate change. They decide the best way to achieve this is by taxing poor people. Utter shock when the poor people start rioting.”

France Suspends Diesel Tax Hike – Mish Talk

Emmanuel Macron Blinked. Gee, who coulda thought.

moneymaven.io

end

FRANCE

Tomorrow ought to be interesting as france readies a fleet of armoured vehicles ahead of “act iv” of the yellow vest fiots.

(courtesy zerohedge)

France Readies Fleet Of Armored Vehicles Ahead Of “Act IV” Yellow Vest Riots

Paris security forces are prepared to deploy up to 80 armored vehicles in anticipation of “extreme violence” and rioting during “Act IV” of the Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vest) protest scheduled for Saturday, according to Le Parisien.

The Berliet VXB-170, also known as a “VBRG” would be strategically deployed in parts of Paris most likely to suffer violence or vandalization. Designed in the 1960s, the 12 ton, 19-foot-long vehicles don 7mm thick armor and are capable of firing tear gas grenades. They can also be equipped with a 7.62mm machine gun, and either a 37mm or 40mm grenade launcher.

Up to 89,000 police and gendarmes will be deployed across the country, including at least 8,000 in Paris, according to Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, who said this week “We are facing people who are not there to demonstrate but are there to smash things upand we want to make sure we’re not leaving them to do what they want.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

Yellow Vest movement is the most serious wave of protests in France since 1968. Will it evolve into Paris Spring?

Reuters Top News

@Reuters

France to close Eiffel Tower, Louvre, fearing new ‘yellow vest’ unrest https://reut.rs/2Ei8iQC

To that end, Philippe may order the VBRG deployment, while Paris Police will set up a judicial center to deal in real time with the anticipated 600 to 800 arrests, according to David LeBars, Secretary General of the National Union of Police Commissioners (SNCP).

Paris has gone into virtual lockdown as authorities and businesses prepare for the mayhem – as shops, banks, restaurants and other businesses boarded up to prevent anticipated looting and property destruction. As we reported yesterday, the Eiffel Tower will be among the shuttered tourist attractions around the city.

The Yellow Vest movement began as a protest of the Macron government’s proposed new gas tax, and quickly transitioned into a general anti-government movement.

Outside of the capital, tax offices have been boarded up, though the association of rural mayors has asked local councillors to keep town halls open to allow “each citizen to verbally express their anger”.

Ministers have repeated calls for calm and asked protesters to stay away from the capital, as have union leaders, opposition parties and Roman Catholic clergy.

On Friday French media reported that the president, Emmanuel Macron, had refused a demand to meet “moderate” gilets jaunesat the Elysée.

Unofficial Yellow Vest spokesman Benjamin Cauchy has said that his group wanted to meet with Macron because “insurrection is at the gates of France and we don’t want any deaths this weekend.”

Also likely to fuel French anger is a viral video of police detaining protesting high school students “execution-style,” as they protested education reform in north-central Mantes-la-Jollie.

Embedded video

Violences Policières@Obs_Violences

D’autres images de l’interpellation de dizaines de lycéens, aujourd’hui à Mantes-la-Jolie.

Macron said he wanted to rule France like a Roman God. Perhaps a paper crown from Burger King would be more appropriate?

 

GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK
This is a big story:  criminal oriented Deutsche bank clearly nearly all of the $234 billion of suspicious funds for Danske Bank in Estonia.  Not only that but they are also heavily involved in the banking scheme of the rich via the Panama papers.  Deutsche bank stock is hitting lows every day.  The problem for us is that they will never let this company fail due to its huge amount of derivatives…they will just paper over all of their loses and it is now huge!
(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Cleared Nearly All Of $234 Billion In

‘Suspicious’ Funds For Danske Bank

Deutsche Bank shares have continued to break through successive all-time lows following news that Frankfurt prosecutors are pursuing charges against DB employees (and possibly the bank itself) over allegations that the bank’s wealth management unit helped launder money for criminals and other tax cheats – allegations that surfaced in the infamous ‘Panama Papers’ leak from 2016. Meanwhile, a parallel scandal has been brewing over DB’s involvement in the Danske Bank money laundering scandal – one of the biggest in European banking history.

Last month, the Danske whistleblower who helped lead regulators to the endemic processing of ‘suspicious’ money flowing out of Russia, Moldova and into Western capitals suggested that Deutsche Bank helped clear $150 billion of the $234 billion deemed suspicious by a Danske internal audit (some clients of Danske’s Estonian branch are believed to have had ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin) . And on Thursday, press reports added another $35 billion to that figure. According to the Financial Times, which cited an internal DB memo, Deutsche cleared a total of nearly $200 billion for Danske’s Estonian branch between 2007 and 2015. This means that Deutsche Bank cleared more than 4/5ths of the purportedly suspicious funds flowing out of the Danish bank’s Estonian branch. Over the eight year period, DB processed some 1 million transactions, according to the memo, and never once bothered to question the provenance of these massive sums of money, which dwarfed the annual GDP of Estonia.

Deutsche

This revelation follows reports that regulators in the US and Europe are looking into Deutsche Bank’s role in the scandal. A Deutsche spokesman said the bank is cooperating with all inquiries. Howard Wilkinson, the former Danske executive-turned-whistleblower, told the Danish Parliament last month that Deutsche cleared roughly $150 billion through a US-based subsidiary.

Deutsche stopped clearing money for Danske’s Estonian branch in 2015, two years after JP Morgan dropped Danske Estonia as a client, after complaining that its compliance department had flagged too many examples of suspected money laundering. But the memo obtained by the FT revealed that even as DB stepped away from dollar clearing, it continued to process payments denominated in euros, totaling some 225 million euros ($256 million) between 2015 and 2018(though Deutsche’s membership in the Single Euro Payments Area means that it was obliged to process these payments).

This means that Deutsche could face further legal penalties related to three separate scandals: The infamous Russian mirror-trading scandal (Deutsche paid more than $600 million in fines to US and UK authorities last year but US authorities are continuing their investigation), the ‘Panama Papers’ AML violations and the Danske scandal.

Despite these mounting legal risks, Deutsche affirmed on Thursday that it would not raise its provisions for legal judgments,likely leaving the bank vulnerable to more fines (Deutsche has already paid some $18 billion in fines since the financial crisis), which could seriously impact future earnings.

END
Meet Angela Merkel’s anointed successor as Party Leader:  Annegret Kramp Karrenbauer
(courtesy zerohedge)

Germany’s CDU Elects Angela Merkel’s Anointed

Successor As Party Leader

Germany’s Christian Democratic Union delivered a badly needed victory to Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday when members elected 56-year-old moderate lawmaker Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the outgoing Chancellor’s preferred successor, to succeed her as party leader.

Kramp

After her party suffered yet another lackluster result in regional elections in its stronghold of Hesse – where its share of the vote fell by more than 11 points (its junior partner in her governing grand coalition, the Social Democrats, also slumped) –  Merkel announced last month that she would not seek another term as chancellor after her current term ends in 2021. She also resigned as party leader, creating an opportunity for her party to anoint an heir who will be the presumptive favorite to win the chancellorship after Merkel retires from politics. As one journalist pointed out on Twitter, by choosing Kramp-Karrenbauer with a slight majority of 51.7%, the German conservatives have decided on continuity. The former chief minister of Saarland won 517 of the 999 votes cast, narrowly winning over 63-year-old executive Friedrich Merz, who represented a chance for the party to return to its conservative roots after 18 years of center-right rule.

Holger Zschaepitz@Schuldensuehner

Picking Merkel’s favored candidate Kramp-Karrenbauer as Leader w/ 51.7%, German Conservatives choose continuity.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia/USA

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

CANADA

With Canada in turmoil with growth decelerating and a material weaker oil sector and a drop in business sentiment, somehow Canada added a very strong 94,000 jobs last month….we are learning how to fudge data from our neighbour to the south

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dear Canada, WTF?

Just hours ago, The Bank of Canada held rates steady and complained about various internal and external factors that were negatively impacting the Canadian economy…

Holding rates unchanged at 1.75%, the BOC cited almost everything that has gone wrong:

  • moderating global growth,
  • a “materially weaker” outlook for the oil sector,
  • a faster-than-expected deceleration of inflation,
  • a drop in business investment and downward historical revisions to output

And today we get this…

Canada added 94,100 jobs in November – the most ever! Sending the Canadian unemployment rate to a record low 5.6%…

So WTF!?

end

 

7  OIL ISSUES

Oil rises on a bigger than expected production cut

(courtesy zerohedge)

OPEC Meeting Ends With Members Agreeing To

Bigger Than Expected Production Cut

Update (10:50 am ET): After the bloc had earlier declined to reveal the individual member breakdown for its production cuts, a handful of OPEC members have confirmed their individual quotas at the bloc’s post-meeting press conference, which essentially confirmed that the bloc is just trimming back production to levels from before the US reimposed its sanctions on Iran.

  • IRAQ TO CUT OIL PRODUCTION BY ABOUT 140K B/D, MINISTER SAYS
  • RUSSIA TO CUT 230,000 B/D IN OIL-CUT DEAL: IRAQ OIL MINISTER
  • SAUDI ALREADY CUT BY 500K B/D SO TO CUT 200K B/D: IRAQ OIL MIN
  • OPEC SAYS 800K B/D CUT FROM OCT 2018 LEVEL EFFECTIVE JANUARY
  • UAE OIL MINISTER SAYS NON-OPEC TO CUT OUTPUT BY 400K B/D

For context, here’s a snapshot of the latest production data (note the post-Iran ramp):

opecc

The bloc’s next ordinary meeting will begin in Vienna on April 29.

* * *

Update (9:15 am ET): In a surprising decision that’s bound to confuse oil traders, OPEC has reportedly said it won’t release a list of the individual production quotas – though the deal reportedly calls for a 2.5% cut from all members except Iran, Venezuela and Libya.

* * *

Update (8:40 am ET): The latest wave of reports out of Vienna has put the wind back in crude’s sails. After two days of heated negotiations, the OPEC+ delegates have finally reached an agreement for a 1.2 million b/d cut (slightly more than 1 million that was expected/priced in) and Iran will be exempt (though the Saudis and Iraqis say there will be no exemptions).

Though many conflicting details are still circulating, some reports claim Libya and Venezuela have also been exempted.

WTI tagged $54 then dropped.

Cut

Here’s a quick initial summary of the deal terms from BBG:

  • Oil reached its highs for the day on news of an agreement
  • The reduction will be split with 2/3 coming from OPEC members and 1/3 from its OPEC+ allies including Russia
  • Iran, under U.S. sanctions, will be exempt from the cut, a delegate said
  • We have yet to see the final wording of the agreement

OPEC Will use October production levels as the ‘baseline’ for cuts:

  • *OPEC+ TO USE OCTOBER OIL OUTPUT AS CUT DEAL BASELINE: DELEGATE
  • *OPEC AGREES TO REVIEW PRODUCTION CUTS IN APRIL: DELEGATE
  • *OPEC SOURCE SAYS RUSSIA WILL NEED TO CUT AROUND 230 KBPD UNDER DEAL
  • ZANGANEH: 800K B/D CUT FOR OPEC AND 400K FOR NON-OPEC

* * *

Update (8:00 am ET): Oil prices spiked Friday morning before quickly fading after Reuters reported that Iran has agreed to the OPEC deal for 800,000 b/d of cuts – only for an Iranian delegate to swiftly deny that report, sending crude prices back from whence they came.

OPEC

The Iranian delegate said there’s still ‘lots of haggling’ about a possible deal.

* * *

Update (7:10 am ET): As furious negotiations continue on day two of the OPEC+ talks in Vienna, one OPEC delegate has informed BBG that the group has yet to finalize the final number for the cuts.

* * *

Update (6:30 am ET): Boom…

  • OPEC TALKS IN VIENNA ARE DEADLOCKED: DELEGATE

Reports of the deadline followed headlines claiming that Iran had demanded that an exemption must be included in any agreement about production cuts. A counteroffer for Iran to agree to a “symbolic” cut has reportedly been categorically rejected by the Gulf Producer. WTI has moved back to unch on the day.

* * *

Update (6:20 am ET): Expressing dissatisfaction with the terms of whatever deal has been discussed, Iran is reportedly holding out for language about an exemption for the struggling producer to be included in the agreement following three hours of talks on Friday.

It would be ironic if Iran – which has been blamed, along with Saudi Arabia and Russia, for triggering the collapse in oil prices due to the sanctions ‘exemptions’ on its oil exports extended by the US – ends up killing the deal, because the only less-desirable outcome for oil markets than a ‘baseline’ cut scenario would be ‘no deal’.

Oil prices are all over the place as the perceived prospects for a deal change with each new headline.

Oil

* * *

Oil traders pushed crude prices 5% lower on Thursday after OPEC+ members failed to reach an agreement on production cuts – and outcome that helped stoke rumors that Russia and Saudi Arabia, the bloc’s two most influential members, had struck an agreement to keep production elevated to placate President Trump. But given the intensifying political pressure that threatens to fracture the decades old cartel, leaked reports from Friday’s meeting suggest that Russia and Saudi may have accepted that cuts are necessary –  though doubts remain about whether the 1 million b/d figure that has been bandied about would have any enduring impact on prices amid fears that global markets would remain hopelessly oversupplied.

The dominant rumor following Friday morning’s meeting suggested that OPEC was leaning toward total cuts of 1 million b/d (or more) with members contributing 650k and non-OPEC members (mostly Russia) contributing 350k.Iran, Venezuela and Libya each demanded an exemption from the cuts, citing economic hardship (yet Saudi Arabia has resisted calls for it to shoulder the bulk of the cuts, and insisted instead that they be evenly spread throughout the bloc, and reports later Friday said OPEC and Russia would seek a “symbolic” commitment to cuts from Iran).

Still, in one sign that the bloc’s two most dominant members might not be willing to cooperate, Russia and Saudi Arabia have refused to jawbone the market lower: Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that while Russia would consider cuts of 100k-150k b/d, this deceleration would need to be short-lived, with production possibly ramping back up after three months because “market conditions may change.”

And even if they do relent, analysts have expressed doubts about whether 1 million b/d in cuts would remove enough supply from the market. One analyst with Commerzbank said oil would “likely fall further” if OPEC+ only cut production by 1 million b/d because “this will not be sufficient to rebalance the market.” An analyst at Jeffires agreed, saying cuts of 1m b/d oil could lead to a sell-the-news reaction in the short term, particularly if details are “sketchy.”

OPEC

According to the Financial Times, influential Saudi energy minister Khalid Al Falih said he was “not confident” of an agreement. Others have said they still believe an agreement for a 1 million b/d cut could still be reached.

Oman, which is not an Opec member but plays an influential role as a go-between among the different factions, cautioned countries against being “macho” late Thursday, arguing that production cuts were in everybody’s interest. Alexander Novak, Russia’s energy minister had reportedly met with Vladimir Putin following the start of the Vienna meeting to discuss Russia’s position on cuts (the Russian leader said last month that he was “fine” with prices at $60 a barrel). Novak and Falih reportedly met Friday, though the details of what was said were unclear.

As production in the Permian Basin relentlessly accelerates, other producers worry that any revenue they gain from cuts will be offset by ceding more market share to their American competitors. And hopes that a rebound in oil prices (due to its connotations for capex spending and, more broadly, economic growth) might rescue the equity market have added another possible repercussion to the dilemma.

Brent crude futures swiftly priced in this uncertainty, falling 3% to trade below $60 a barrel early Friday before chatter about a possible larger-than-expected deal helped push prices back into the green.

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1347 DOWN .0002 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.80  DOWN 0.249 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2749 UP   0.0026  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3420  UP .0057 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 2 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1355/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 0.71 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 92.62 POINTS OR 0.35%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.37% /EUROPEAN BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED  UP 177,06 POINTS OR 0.82%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 92.62 POINTS OR 0.35% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.71  POINTS OR 0.03%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  0.37%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 177,06 POINTS OR 0.82%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1240.80

silver:$14.48

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.88% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.14 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.85 UP 4  CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.80% DOWN 1    in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.06%  DOWN 0  BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.45% DOWN 1  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.13 DOWN 7     POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 168 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.25%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.96% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1388 UP .0135 or 13 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.63 DOWN  0 .092 OR 9 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2749 DOWN .0035( POUND DOWN 35 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 89 basis points to 1.3302

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.8743-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8851(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2945

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.06%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.88 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.16 UP 4 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.70 DOWN 11 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 74.06 POINTS OR 1.10%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 22.89 POINTS  OR 0.21%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 32.67 POINTS OR 0.68%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 51.00 POINTS OR 0.58%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP: 98.15 POINTS OR 0.53%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.83 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 62,73 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.51  THE CROSS LOWER BY .51 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 51 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.2945 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.25 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :52.41

 

BRENT:61/40

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.86%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.15%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1405 ( UP 29 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.68 down .043 (YEN UP 4 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.62 DOWN 19 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2745 DOWN 34 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.2991

the Russian rouble:  66.40 UP .46 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 46 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3316 UP 75 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8743  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8856 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.25%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 558.72 POINTS OR 2.34%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 219.00 POINTS OR 3.05%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  23.23 CLOSED UP 2.04 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.767%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/SMALL RISE TODAY

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Goldilocks Is Dead: Stocks Slammed Despite Trade-Truce, OPEC Deal, & Jobs

Gains

In a week in which we got a trade-truce, the market all but pricing out any Fed hawkishness, and Alberta cutting crude production and an OPEC deal; stocks in Europe and US collapsed…

Let’s hope for The Santa Claus Rally… any day now…

 

C

 

China ended the week marginally higher (having erased almost all of the post-Truce gains)…

 

European markets were a bloodbath however, led by Germany… (down over 6% from its Monday exuberant highs to its lowest in 2 years)

 

Deutsche Bank ended the week below $8…

 

Before we start, everyone seemed to crow about the jobs print this morning as a ‘Goldilocks’ number – well they were half right – Gold is the only asset green…

Futures how the real chaos this week…

Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise notes that yesterday’s crazy dump and pump was only the 13th time since 1980 that the S&P rallied more than 2.8% but still closed lower from the previous day. Six such episodes occurred during the 2001 and 2008 recessions. The last time it happened was in May 2010 amid the European debt crisis, as my colleague Luke Kawa noted.

On the cash side it was an ugly week… with Trannies down 8%!!! (worst week since 2011), Small Caps worst week since Jan 2016

This happened despite utter desperation from Fed’s Bullard and Brainard suggesting uber-dovishness.

The Dow and S&P back into the red for 2018 and Nasdaq up less than 1% (and Trannies and Small Caps are ugly)

 

All the major US equity indices plunged back below key technical support levels…

 

The S&P 500 ‘Death Crossed’ today...(the last time it death crossed was Jan 2016 as the S&P dropped 13%)

 

“Most Shorted” Stocks were squeeze Monday morning and Thursday afternoon, but ended the week lower…

 

Financials were FUBAR this week – plunging most since March to the lowest since Sept 2017

 

Regional Banks were crushed… (notably the Monday surge tagged the 50DMA which seemed to trigger stops)

 

And the big banks bloodbathing…

 

Global Systemically Important Banks are down 33% from the highs and have erased all post-Trump gains…

 

FANGs are down 24% from their highs…

 

With NFLX leading the collapse… (down 11% from Monday highs)

 

AAPL tumbled below $170 to six-month lows…down 27% from its highs and in the red for 2018

And Alphabet ended the week red for 2018…

 

Credit markets continued their collapse…

HY and IG closed at cycle wides…

 

And LevLoans crashed…

On record outflows…

 

Bonds were right after all… Stocks enjoyed 24 hours of excitement on Sunday/Monday before catching down to reality…

 

Treasury yields tumbled all week led by the long-end…

 

10Y Yield dropped to key support…

 

With dramatic flattening… 2s5s are down for 8 of the last 9 weeks…

 

And inverted…

 

Inflation breakevens soared early on as WTI spiked on the OPEC deal, but lost contact as the day wore on…

 

The Dollar ended the week marginally lower – but had a very wild ride…

 

Interestingly, while stocks all tumbled, erasing trade gains, offshore yuan ended the week notably higher – the best week for Yuan since January!

 

Cryptos crashed again…

 

PMs rallied on the week, copper tumbled…

 

On the heels of the OPEC ‘deal’, WTI jumped over 5% – its best week since June…BUT it seems like $54 is the limit for WTI for now…

 

Amid all the chaos, gold jumped almost 2%, the best week for the precious metal since March…

 

Additionally, despite Yuan’s best week in 11 months, gold outperformed to its strongest since October…

 

Silver broke back above its 50DMA…

 

Finally a chart that fascinates us – the price of a barrel of oil in ounces of silver – it seems 5 ounces is just too rich for demand…

 

Don’t forget – last week was the best week for stocks in 8 years… followed by this week’s worst drop since the March tech wreck.

Finally, a little context for this post-trade-truce week – China is higher, Europe has collapsed, and US stocks have tumbled…Xi wins?

And this plunge has happened as the eurodollar market has priced in massive dovishness…

And if cyclical stocks are right, bond bears face a serious bloodbath right ahead…

If the US economy/market cannot handle positive real interest rates, what is with this “world’s greatest economy” narrative?

Macro data suggests Goldilocks is dead…

market trading

early morning after the release of the jobs report

gold jumps on poor jobs report/oil jumps on Saudi /OPEC oil deal/dollar dumps

(courtesy zerohedge)

Gold, Oil, & Stocks Jump, Dollar Dumps On Jobs Disappointment, OPEC Deal

A combination of weak payrolls data (dovish) and an OPEC deal (oil higher, inflation hawkish) has traders scrambling to see beyond the algos next move. For now, oil, stocks, gold, and bond yields are up and the dollar is down…

WTI is surging (but not insanely)

 

The Dollar was monkeyhammered as traders saw weakness as cementing a more dovish tone from The Fed…

 

And gold and stocks loved that (so why are bonds selling off?)

Here’s why – the OPEC deal sent crude prices soaring which triggered breakevens…

Still along way to the open and a longer way to the close.

 

end

After the USA sent out the mouthpiece Kudlow to jolt the markets northbound, the effect did not last long as investors started to dump big time

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Blame The Algos – Stocks Dump After Kudlow Pump

Update: Who could have seen that coming? No immediate news catalyst for this sudden tumble – or did everyone just realize Kudlow’s talk was just that…

Time to blame the algos!!

*  *  *

When in doubt – wheel out Larry Kudlow…

The White House Economic Advisor, under the guise of Plunge Protector, said this morning that:

  • *KUDLOW SAYS U.S. HAS BEEN WARNING HUAWEI ON SANCTIONS VIOLATION
  • *KUDLOW: HUAWEI DOESN’T HAVE TO SPILL INTO TRADE TALKS W/CHINA
  • *KUDLOW SAYS CHINESE CAR TARIFFS WILL COME DOWN RAPIDLY

So don;’t worry about Hauwei, oh and remember how awesome the car tariffs cut will be…

And most notably:

  • *KUDLOW SAYS TRUMP MAY GIVE CHINA MORE THAN 90 DAYS

And the result, stocks go vertical…

And the dollar dumps…

Someone please complain about these algos and machines that are ruining our markets… [crickets…]

Let’s see what happens next – after Nasdaq futures were levitated to green.

end

 

 

market data/

A big miss in the Nov. payrolls a rise to a disappointing 155,000 gain instead of 195,000.  Two other downers:  hourly earnings rose by only .2% instead of .3% and the average hrly week fell from 34.5 down to 35.4.  All of this was blamed on the weather. The entire jobs report is a phony.  It does not disclose the huge number of poor souls that give up trying to find a job

(courtesy zero hedge)

November Payrolls Rise A Disappointing 155K As

Wage Growth Misses

With whispers that the November jobs report would disappoint to various factors such as winter storms and rising jobless claims, moments ago the BLS reported that November payrolls indeed disappointed expectations, printing at 155K, below the 198K expectations, with the October number revised lower from 250K to 237K.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down from +250,000 to +237,000, and the change for September was revised up from +118,000 to +119,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 12,000 less than previously reported.

However, confirming that this number too was weather affected, the BLS reported that “workers unable to work due to bad weather” came at a substantial 129K, well above prior November months (2017 was 84K, 2016 was 19K, 2015 was 97K).

As Southbay Research notes, one can blame the weather for today’s miss:

Supply Chain (ex retail) Strong

  • Manufacturing: +27K (3rd highest for the year)
  • Transportation: +25K (a 3 year high)
  • Wholesale: +10K (3rd highest for the year)

Weather-Sensitive Sectors Hit

  • Retail: +18K (vs 27K November 2017)
  • Leisure & Hospitality: +15K (vs. 20K November 2017)
  • Construction: +5K (vs. 42K November 2017)
  • Mining: -3K (vs. +6K November 2017)

Meanwhile,the Household survey saw a 233K increase in employment, a sharp drop from the 600k increase in October.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged, as expected at 3.7%, already the lowest since 1968.

Meanwhile, while the U-6 gauge of underemployment has been falling for years, it’s showing some signs of stabilizing and in November, it actually ticked up modestly, from 7.4% to 7.6%.

The overall labor force participation rate continued to hover near a four-year high of 62.9, if still well below its historical average.

And while hourly earnings rose at a hottish 3.1% year over year, and as consensus expected, on a monthly basis, the increase was 0.2%, below the 0.3% expected, with October also revised down from 0.2% to 0.1% M/M, and adding fuel to any dovish reversal by the Fed.

Another notably negative aspect to the report: the average workweek declined from 34.5 hours to 34.4, below the 34.5 expected, which provided an artificial boost to “average” hourly earnings.

On the flipside, and a fact which will likely be used by Trump, black unemployment dropped to a new record low.

Looking at specific job sectors:

  • Manufacturing payrolls rose 27k after rising 26k in the prior month (economists estimated 18k)
  • Oil and gas extraction payrolls rose 7,400 from a year earlier.
  • Gasoline stations payrolls rose 2,400 in Nov. after falling 2,200 in Oct.
  • Pipeline transport payrolls fell 500 in Nov. after rising 100 in Oct.
  • Petroleum and coal payrolls fell 1,500 in Nov. after falling 600 in Oct.

So while both the headline jobs print and wages came in weaker than expected, a big reason for this was weather. The question, however, is whether the market will focus on the one-time factors impacting the November print, or whether it will instead see this as “bad data” which will then be interpreted as good news for stocks, as it means a Fed pause is even more likely.

In a tangential preview of the jobs report, Chair Powell last night made it clear that he does not view today’s report as especially bad; that or he was trying to put a spin on the number today. As a reminder, the Fed receives the employment numbers before the official release, however – naturally – is unable to comment directly on the report until it is out. However in the context of Powell’s remarks last night emphasizing the strength of the labor market may have been an attempt to calm anxieties ahead of a surprisingly weak report.

For his part, Renaissance macro economist Neil Dutta thinks that the report was just shy of Goldilocks:

“November’s employment report was short of consensus estimates, but not weak enough to keep the Fed from hiking this month. Factory hours worked rose, which implies continued growth in manufacturing production.”

Commenting on the report, Bloomberg economist Yelena Shulyatyeva writes that “The details of the report shed light on what to expect in 2019 — while manufacturing jobs held strong overall, construction, and auto production hiring slowed down significantly, suggesting higher interest rates are taking a toll. Mining did not take long to cut workers in response to the recent plunge in oil prices.”

Summarizing the report, Bloomberg Fed reporter Steve Matthews said:

  • In sum, it shouldn’t change the outlook for a December hike at all, which still seems probable though not certain.
  • The Fed view on any report is that it’s just one report, and that a single report doesn’t matter much and is subject to revision.
  • The payroll number is still far in excess of what is needed to keep the unemployment rate level.
  • Unemployment is the single most important figure and it remains near a 50-year low.
  • Wages basically are in line with moderate growth amid weak productivity.
  • Jim Bullard of the St. Louis Fed will speak today and probably comment. While’s he’s a dove, I expect his view of the report to mirror that of the rest of the FOMC.
end
The big thing here is that there does  not appear to be any wage pressure
(courtesy zerohedge)

Where The Jobs Were In November: Who’s Hiring And

Who Isn’t

After an unexpectedly strong October payrolls report (which was since revised slightly downward to 237K jobs from 250K mostly to reflect the payback from jobs lost to “hurricanes” in September), November came in disappointingly low, with only 155K jobs added, 33K below the 198K expected.

However, like last month, it appears that weather – this time the abnormal cold during the survey week – again impacted the seasonally-adjusted job count, with “workers unable to work due to bad weather” printing at a substantial 129K, well above recent prior Novembers (2017 was 84K, 2016 was 19K, 2015 was 97K). Furthermore, as Southbay Research confirms, it indeed appears that one can blame the weather for today’s miss, as follows:

Supply Chain (ex retail) Strong

  • Manufacturing: +27K (3rd highest for the year)
  • Transportation: +25K (a 3 year high)
  • Wholesale: +10K (3rd highest for the year)

Of note here, the surprisingly strong increase in manufacturing jobs (+27,000) suggests the payrolls miss this month was not about tariffs.

Weather-Sensitive Sectors Hit

  • Retail: +18K (vs 27K November 2017)
  • Leisure & Hospitality: +15K (vs. 20K November 2017)
  • Construction: +5K (vs. 42K November 2017)
  • Mining: -3K (vs. +6K November 2017)

While weather may have affected jobs, it was not immediately clear if it also hit wages, which also disappointed, and while printing 3.1% Y/Y, the November average hourly earnings came in at 0.2%, below the 0.3% expected, while October was revised lower to 0.1%, even as the average November workweek declined fractionally by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.

Still, wage pressures appear to be abating. Average hourly earnings for total private industry have risen 0.18% per month so far in Q4, compared to +0.32% in Q3, +0.24% in Q2, and +0.20% in Q1. Heavy cooling in wages for the mining and logging, wholesale trade and utilities industries.

Weather and wages aside, the job market continues to grow at a pace that will continue pressuring the unemployment rate, reflected in the number of job openings which have been greater than the number of unemployed workers for 5 months in a row.

Of course, much of this overheating in the US labor market is the result of Trump’s fiscal stimulus, whose impact will soon begin to fade at a rapid pace as payback time comes, which has prompted many to ask if we have hit “peak jobs.” Until we get the answer, however, the labor market remains strong with the following sectors especially hot:

  • Manufacturing workers added 27,000 jobs, with increases in chemicals (+6,000) and primary metals (+3,000).
  • Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 25,000 in November, with job gains in couriers and messengers (+10,000) and in warehousing and storage (+6,000).
  • Professional and business service jobs added +32,000 jobs, with temp help workers adding a solid 8,300 jobs.
  • Retail trade employment changed little in November (+18,000). Job growth occurred in general merchandise stores (+39,000) and miscellaneous store retailers (+10,000); this growth was offset by declines in clothing and clothing accessories stores (-14,000); electronics and appliance stores(-11,000); and sporting goods, hobby, and book stores (-11,000).

And visually:

Looking over the past year, the following charts from Bloomberg show the industries with the highest and lowest rates of employment growth for the prior year. The latest month’s figures are highlighted.

end

Soft data U.Mich sentiment is flat and the hope section plummets as home buying conditions hit a 10 yr low

(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich ‘Hope’ Tumbles As Home-Buying Conditions Hit 10-Year Lows

Having fallen for two months, UMich sentiment was flat according to preliminary December data (slightly better than expectations) with current conditions rebounding and future expectations (hope) tumbling to its lowest since Dec 2017.

 

 

UMich reports that buying conditions for houses continued to slump to cycle lows (but Autos and large appliances rebounded)…

 

Across the wealth spectrum, the poor were happier but the rich and middle class are sadder…

 

Finally, we note that inflation expectations tumbled back to bear record lows (short- and medium-term).

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Good looking girl! Heather Nauert is to be named UN ambassador.  She lacks experience but she will be fine

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump To Announce Heather Nauert As UN Ambassador Tomorrow

Confirming rumors from a month ago, and following Dina Powell’s “not interested” response, President Trump is reportedly set to name State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert to replace Nikki Haleywho unexpectedly announced her resignation in October and promised to serve in her role through the end of 2018, as UN ambassador.

Trump had reportedly told aides he wanted a woman to fill the role.

Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter and White House adviser, was also touted by Trump as an “incredible” choice for the position, though Trump also said that he would be criticized for nepotism if Ivanka was selected.

Fox News reports that Trump will make the announcement Friday morning in a tweet.

Nauert, who came to government from Fox News, served as State Department spokesman for both Rex Tillerson and Mike Pompeo but has enjoyed a closer relationship with Trump’s second secretary of state than she did Tillerson, who was privately skeptical of her close ties with the West Wing.

Her elevation to a top diplomatic role underscores the importance Trump has placed on having his top aides also serve as television surrogates. Nauert has briefed regularly from the State Department podium and had a long career in television news before that.

Still, as a diplomat she lacks experience.

If nominated by the president, she will face a confirmation by the Senate, which remains in GOP control following November’s midterm elections.

 end
This is ominous for the Democrats…the CFO of the Clinton foundation is spilling the beans as he states:
“I know where all the bodies are buried”..I guess he means figuratively but maybe in reality.
(courtesy zerohedge)

“I Know Where All The Bodies Are Buried”: Clinton Foundation CFO Spills Beans To Investigators

The CFO of the Clinton Foundation, thinking he was “meeting an old professional acquaintance,” admitted to investigators that the charity had widespread problems with governance, accounting and conflicts of interest, and that Bill Clinton has been commingling business and personal expenses for a long time, reports The Hill‘s John Solomon.

Clinton Foundation CFO Andrew Kessel made the admissions to investigators from MDA Analytics LLC – a firm run by “accomplished ex-federal criminal investigators,” who have been probing the Clinton Foundation for some time.

Kessel told MDA “There is no controlling Bill Clinton. He does whatever he wants and runs up incredible expenses with foundation funds, according to MDA’s account of the interview. “Bill Clinton mixes and matches his personal business with that of the foundation. Many people within the foundation have tried to caution him about this but he does not listen, and there really is no talking to him.”

MDA compiled Kessel’s statements, as well as over 6,000 pages of evidence from a whistleblower they had been working with separately, and which they filed secretly over a year ago with the FBI and IRS. MDA has alleged that the Clinton Foundation engaged in illegal activities, and may owe millions in unpaid taxes and penalties.

In addition to the IRS, the firm’s partners have had contact with prosecutors in the main Justice Department in Washington and FBI agents in Little Rock, Ark. And last week, a federal prosecutor suddenly asked for documents from their private investigation.

The memo also claims Kessel confirmed to the private investigators that private lawyers reviewed the foundation’s practices — once in 2008 and the other in 2011 — and each found widespread problems with governance, accounting and conflicts of interest.

“I have addressed it before and, let me tell you, I know where all the bodies are buried in this place,” the memo alleges Kessel said.

The 48-page submission, dated Aug. 11, 2017, supports its claims with 95 exhibits, including internal legal reviews that the foundation conducted on itself in 2008 and 2011. –The Hill

“There is probable cause that the Clinton Foundation has run afoul of IRS rules regarding tax-exempt charitable organizations and has acted inconsistently with its stated purpose,” MDA alleged in its memo, adding “The Foundation should be investigated for all of the above-mentioned improprieties. The tax rules, codes, statutes and the rule of law should and must be applied in this case.”

Foundation officials confirmed that Kessel met with MDA investigators, but said that he “strongly denies that he said or suggested hat the Clinton Foundation or President Clinton engaged in inappropriate or illegal activities.”

“Mr. Kessel believed he was meeting an old professional acquaintance who was looking for business from the Foundation,” the foundation added in a statement.

MDA was specifically created to investigate 501c3 charities, and researched the Clinton Foundation at its own expense in the hope that the whistleblower submission they compiled might result in a government reward if the IRS was able to corroborate wrongdoing and recover tax dollars.

The IRS sent multiple letters in 2017 and 2018 to MDA Analytics, confirming it had received the submission and it was “still open and under active investigation.” But, shortly before last month’s election, the agency sent a preliminary denial letter indicating it did not pursue the allegations for reasons that ranged from a lack of resources to possible expiration of the statute of limitations on some allegations.

I asked a half-dozen former federal investigators to review the submission and key evidence; all said the firm’s analysis of tax-exempt compliance issues would not be that useful to federal agencies that have their own legal experts for that. But they stressed the evidence of potential criminality was strong and warranted opening an FBI or IRS probe. –The Hill

According to retired FBI supervisory agent Jeffrey Danik, MDA’s work is “a very good roadmap for investigation, adding “When you have the organization’s own lawyers using words like ‘quid pro quo,’ ‘conflicts of interest’ and ‘whistleblower protections,’ you have enough to get permission to start interviewing and asking questions.”

While some of the documents MDA submitted were marked as attorney-client privileged, Danik doesn’t think that should be an issue for federal investigators – given that since special counsel Robert Mueller “got the OK to investigate Michael Cohen and his attorney-client communications with President Trump, I imagine that hurdle could be overcome under the crime-fraud exception.”

Meanwhile, next week a GOP Congressional subcommittee led by Rep. Mark Meadows (NC) will review the work of John Huber – the US attorney designated a year ago by then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions to investigate “all things Clinton.” The hearing will establish how much money and resources Huber has dedicated, and whether we can expect to see any recommendations regarding Hillary Clinton’s transfer of classified information from her insecure private server, along with the foundation’s activities.

To that end, a prosecutor working under Huber called MDA analytics last week and requested copies of their Clinton Foundation evidence, according to Solomon.

A prosecutor working for Huber called MDA Analytics last week, seeking copies of their evidence, according to sources. The firm told the prosecutor that the FBI has possessed the evidence in its Little Rock office since early 2018, the sources said.

Some evidence that MDA investigators cited is public source, such as internal foundation reviews hacked in 2016 and given to WikiLeaks. Other materials were provided to the investigators by foreign governments that have done business with the charity, or by foundation insiders.

One of the nonpublic documents is an interview memo the MDA Analytics investigators penned after meeting with Kessel in late November 2016 at the Princeton Club in New York City. –The Hill

Kessel’s inadvertent admissions, meanwhile, track closely with comments made in 2008 written by a private lawyer named Kumiki Gibson – who the Clinton Foundation hired to study its governance. Gibson flagged concerns over improper commingling of charitable and private business.

“The work of the Foundation and the President are intertwined in a way that creates confusion at, and undermines the work of, the Foundation at virtually every level,” he wrote, warning that such actions pose “reputational and legal challenges, and with confusion, inefficiencies and waste.”

Specifically, the memo warned the foundation had not created policies and procedures “required by law” and that some of its leaders “appear to have interests that do not always align with those of the Foundation.”

It also raised the possibility of illegal activities, saying the foundation and its managers held an “anti-compliance attitude” and that there were lower-level employees who “begged” for whistleblower protections after witnessing “less than fully compliant behavior or even worse are asked to participate in or condone it.” –The Hill

Meanwhile, a 2011 review by the law firm Simpson Thatcher noted “material weaknesses” found by auditors in 2009 and 2010, such as a lack of board meetings and unsigned board minutes – and also found that some foundation employees “abuse expense privileges,” while others had conflicts of interest.

We look forward to hearing anything further from Solomon and The Hill on whatever Huber has been up to

END

The USA consumer is swimming in debt. Total credit is now an astounding $3.963 trillion dollars with consumer  credit rebounding in Oct rising by 25.4 billion dollars. Student loans and car loans rose to 2.93 trillion dollars

US Consumer Credit Hits All Time High As Credit Card Usage Soars

After a surprising slump in the use of revolving debt in September, when US consumers unexpectedly paid down a total of $310 million on their credit cards, moments ago, the Fed reported that in October, consumer credit posted a huge rebound, rising by $25.4 billion, above the $15.0 billion expected, the highest one month jump since last November. The surge in borrowing in October brought the total to $3.963 trillion, a 7.7% annualized increase from a year ago, and a new all time high, largely on the back of a newfound love with credit cards.

After a one-month dormancy in using credit cards, American consumers returned to doing what they do best – spending money they don’t have – with revolving credit jumping by $9.2 billion, the highest monthly increase since last November, and one of the highest monthly increases on record. The monthly increase brought the total to a new all time high of $1.037 trillion.

At the same time, growth in nonrevolving credit, i.e. student and auto loans, was stable and in line with recent months, increasing by $16.2 billion, and also bringing the nonrevolving total to a new all time high of $2.926 trillion.

In other words, while Americans continued to spend on cars and “college”, they once again rediscovered their enthusiasm to buy every day items on credit.

And while the rebound in revolving credit use will silence any questions about the resilience of the US consumer heading into the fall, the recent dramatic upward revision to personal savings notwithstanding, one place where there were no surprises, was in the total amount of student and auto loans: here as expected, both numbers were at fresh all time highs, with a record $1.564 trillion in student loans outstanding, an impressive increase of $33 billion in the quarter, while auto debt also hit a new all time high of $1.143 trillion, an increase of $19 billion in the quarter.

In short, Americans are drowning even deeper in debt, and loving every minute of it.

end

SWAMP STORIES

Trump slams the FBI, Comey as Mueller is set to release documents on Cohen and Manafort which may give some insight into the fake Russian probe

(courtesy zerohedge)

In Furious Tweetstorm, Trump Slams FBI And “Lyin'”

Comey Ahead Of Critical Moment In Russia Probe

With only hours to go before Special Counsel Robert Mueller is expected to file two key sentencing documents related to the Russia probe that would outline the possible punishments facing former Trump Campaign executive Paul Manafort and former Trump attorney (and admitted liar) Michael Cohen, President Trump embarked on what may be his widest-ranging tweet storm in months, criticizing the FBI’s questionable handling of the Russia investigation and warned of a massive surge in illegal immigrant crossing at a “NON-WALLED” area in Arizona.

Trump

Trump also touted “smooth communications and good cooperation” with China over trade talks (ignoring Beijing’s simmering outrage over the arrest of Huawei CFO).

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Statement from China: “The teams of both sides are now having smooth communications and good cooperation with each other. We are full of confidence that an agreement can be reached within the next 90 days.” I agree!

Following his attempt to reassure stock traders, Trump moved on to one of his favorite topics: attacking the news media and pro-immigration Democrats for leaving the Arizona border vulnerable to infiltration. He also demanded that Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer agree to funding for his border wall (Trump is expected to meet with the two leaders next week).

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

FAKE NEWS – THE ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Arizona, together with our Military and Border Patrol, is bracing for a massive surge at a NON-WALLED area. WE WILL NOT LET THEM THROUGH. Big danger. Nancy and Chuck must approve Boarder Security and the Wall!

As BI pointed out, Trump appeared to be referencing the border patrol’s training exercise in Tucson, Arizona, where agents prepared “to deal with the potential of large crowds and assaultive behavior by caravan members, should a situation arise.”

Moving on from immigration, Trump referenced a report about the FBI’s decision to press ahead with its FISA warrants to spy on the Trump campaign despite knowing that its key piece of evidence – the infamous Steele Dossier – was “bogus”. Musing about Mueller, Trump wondered whether the Special Counsel’s many ‘conflicts of interest’, the ‘vicious’ record of his prosecutors and the “many contributions” made by the 17 Angry Democrats to the Clinton campaign would also be deserving of a mention.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Robert Mueller and Leakin’ Lyin’ James Comey are Best Friends, just one of many Mueller Conflicts of Interest. And bye the way, wasn’t the woman in charge of prosecuting Jerome Corsi (who I do not know) in charge of “legal” at the corrupt Clinton Foundation? A total Witch Hunt…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….Will Robert Mueller’s big time conflicts of interest be listed at the top of his Republicans only Report. Will Andrew Weissman’s horrible and vicious prosecutorial past be listed in the Report. He wrongly destroyed people’s lives, took down great companies, only to be……..

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…..overturned, 9-0, in the United States Supreme Court. Doing same thing to people now. Will all of the substantial & many contributions made by the 17 Angry Democrats to the Campaign of Crooked Hillary be listed in top of Report. Will the people that worked for the Clinton….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….Foundation be listed at the top of the Report? Will the scathing document written about Lyin’ James Comey, by the man in charge of the case, Rod Rosenstein (who also signed the FISA Warrant), be a big part of the Report? Isn’t Rod therefore totally conflicted? Will all of….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…the lying and leaking by the people doing the Report, & also Bruce Ohr (and his lovely wife Molly), Comey, Brennan, Clapper, & all of the many fired people of the FBI, be listed in the Report? Will the corruption within the DNC & Clinton Campaign be exposed?..And so much more!

The president also referenced a story  by Fox Business’s Trish Reagan that quoted Roger Stone ally Jerome Corsi, who said the FBI and Mueller had demanded he lie to help aid their investigation and implicate the president and Stone.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Jerome Corsi: ”This is not justice, this is not America. This is a political prosecution. The Special Prosecutor (Counsel), to get this plea deal, demanded I lie and violate the law. They’re the criminals.” He is not alone. 17 Angry Dems. People forced to lie. Sad! @Trish_Regan

With President Trump already firing off more tweets – even as the market remains on edge over what Trump will say, potentially unleashing another furious selloff – one imagines the stream-of-consciousness bursts will continue throughout Friday as Mueller releases his sentencing guidelines for Manafort and Cohen, and setting the stage for the final showdown with the president.

end

The judge in this case blasts the FBI and the dept of Justice

(courtesy Judicial Watch)

Federal Judge Opens Discovery Into Clinton Email Usage

DECEMBER 06, 2018

Court Excoriates Obama State Department/Justice Department for Possibly Acting in “Bad Faith” and Colluding “to Scuttle Public Scrutiny” of Clinton Private Email Server

Court Criticizes Current Justice Department for “Chicanery”

District Court Judge Lamberth Orders “Proposed Plan and Schedule  for Discovery Within Ten Days”

Discovery Must Also Explore Whether Clinton Intentionally Used Private Email Server to “skirt FOIA”

 (Washington, DC) – Judicial Watch announced today that, in a ruling excoriating both the U.S. Departments of State and Justice, U.S. District Court Judge Royce C. Lamberth has ordered both agencies to join Judicial Watch in submitting a proposed schedule for discovery into whether Hillary Clinton sought to evade the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) by using a private email system and whether the State Department acted in “bad faith” by failing to disclose knowledge of the email system.  The decision comes in a FOIA lawsuit related to the Benghazi terrorist attack.

Specially, Lamberth ruled:

… the Court ORDERS the parties to meet and confer to plan discovery into (a) whether Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email while Secretary of State was an intentional attempt to evade FOIA; (b) whether the State Department’s attempts to settle this case in late 2014 and early 2015 amounted to bad faith; and (c) whether State has adequately searched for records responsive to Judicial Watch’s requests.

Terming Clinton’s use of her private email system, “one of the gravest modern offenses to government transparency,” Lamberth wrote in his MEMORANDUM OPINION:

… his [President Barack Obama’s] State and Justice Departments fell far short. So far short that the court questions, even now, whether they are acting in good faith. Did Hillary Clinton use her private email as Secretary of State to thwart this lofty goal [Obama announced standard for transparency]? Was the State Department’s attempt to settle this FOIA case in 2014 an effort to avoid searching – and disclosing the existence of – Clinton’s missing emails? And has State ever adequately searched for records in this case?

***

At best, State’s attempt to pass-off its deficient search as legally adequate during settlement negotiations was negligence born out of incompetence. At worst, career employees in the State and Justice Departments colluded to scuttle public scrutiny of Clinton, skirt FOIA, and hoodwink this Court.

Turning his attention to the Department of Justice, Lamberth wrote:

The current Justice Department made things worse. When the government last appeared before the Court, counsel claimed, ‘it is not true to say we misled either Judicial Watch or the Court.’ When accused of ‘doublespeak,’ counsel denied vehemently, feigned offense, and averred complete candor. When asked why State masked the inadequacy of its initial search, counsel claimed that the officials who initially responded to Judicial Watch’s request didn’t realize Clinton’s emails were missing, and that it took them two months to ‘figure [] out what was going on’… Counsel’s responses strain credulity. [citations omitted]

The Court granted discovery because the government’s response to the Judicial Watch Benghazi FOIA request for Clinton emails “smacks of outrageous conduct.”

Citing an email (uncovered as a result of Judicial Watch’s lawsuit) that Hillary Clinton acknowledged that Benghazi was a terrorist attack immediately after it happened, Judge Lamberth asked:

Did State know Clinton deemed the Benghazi attack terrorism hours after it happened, contradicting the Obama Administration’s subsequent claim of a protest-gone-awry?

****

Did the Department merely fear what might be found? Or was State’s bungling just the unfortunate result of bureaucratic redtape and a failure to communicate? To preserve the Department’s integrity, and to reassure the American people their government remains committed to transparency and the rule of law, this suspicion cannot be allowed to fester.

“The historic court ruling raises concerns about the Hillary Clinton email scandal and government corruption that millions of Americans share,” stated Judicial Watch Tom Fitton.  “Judicial Watch looks forward to conducting careful discovery into the Clinton email issue and we hope the Justice Department and State Department recognize Judge Lamberth’s criticism and help, rather than obstruct, this court-ordered discovery.”

###

end

the clowns are at it again.  Why waste time questioning these bozos.  Trump should just release the classified documents and be done with it.  The public is smart enough to realize what is going on.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Comey Frustrates House GOP During Closed Door Testimony

Former FBI Director James Comey frustrated GOP lawmakers on Friday, during his last testimony before the House Intelligence Committee before Democrats take over control of the panel in January, according to AP.

Speaking to the press outside of the proceedings, House Republicans indicated to reporters that they were unhappy with Comey’s answers and may attempt to bring him back another day.

After the questioning was underway, some Republicans signaled they were unhappy with Comey’s level of cooperation. California Rep. Darrell Issa said Comey had two lawyers in the room, his personal lawyer and a lawyer from the Justice Department. He said the department lawyer repeatedly instructed Comey not to answer “a great many questions that are clearly items at the core of our investigation.”

Issa suggested the committee might bring Comey back because he wasn’t answering questions. Two other Republicans, Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona and Mark Meadows of North Carolina, also suggested they might need a second session with Comey if they didn’t finish their interview by a late afternoon deadline. –AP

Democrats disagreed, with Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (IL) stating “He answered the questions he had to answer,” though he also admitted “we got nowhere today.”

Manu Raju

@mkraju

House Democrats, emerging from the closed Comey interview, said that Comey took strong exception to President Trump’s attacks over the FBI, saying it hurts morale at the department, per Ted Deutsch

Manu Raju

@mkraju

Raja Krishnamoorthi said that the mood was “a little bit tense” but said it was appropriate for Comey not to answer questions related to an investigation. He said Comey’s testimony is consistent with his book and previous Hill testimony.

Manu Raju

@mkraju

And Jimmy Gomez said Comey said he wouldn’t have handled Russia/Clinton probes differently. He also asked Comey if William Barr is bias given his past comments about Mueller. He said if Barr is bias against Mueller, then he should recuse. But he also said he has respect for Barr

Other Democrats were upset that the Republicans on the Committee were distracting from the special counsel’s Russia probe by asking questions about bias within the FBI when it came to investigating Donald Trump’s alleged Russian ties as well as Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server.

Democrats have said the investigations by the House Judiciary and Oversight and Government Reform committees are merely a way to distract from and undermine the special counsel’s Russia probe. Mueller took over the department’s investigation when he was appointed in May 2017.

Florida Rep. Ted Deutsch said the Republican majority “wishes to only ask questions still about Hillary Clinton’s emails, all to distract from the big news today, which is what’s happening in court.” –AP

Mueller is set to reveal more details regarding his Russia investigation in a Friday court deadline. According to Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani, Mueller believes that former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort lied about Trump not knowing of the 2016 Trump Tower meeting.

“This is a waste of time to start with,” said Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler (NY) regarding Comey’s testimony. “The entire purpose of this investigation is to cast aspersions on the real investigation … there is no evidence whatsoever of bias at the FBI or any of this other nonsense.”

(Apparently Nadler missed the entire “F Trump”-themed trove of text messages discovered between lead FBI counterintelligence investigator Peter Strzok and his Trump-hating lover Lisa Page)

END

Despite his co operation to Mueller in the witch hunt..it seems it did not help.  He is get substantial prison time for serious crimes.  Since Trump is also angry with cohen there will be no pardon for him

(courtesy zerohedge)

Cohen To Get “Substantial Prison Time” For “Serious” Crimes Despite

Cooperation With Mueller

It turns out that being a rat may not pay off after all.

Just a few days after Special Counsel Robert Mueller recommended as little as no prison time for Trump’s former National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, who pled guilty to lying to the FBI and had agreed to cooperate with the FBI, moments ago US prosecutors issued a statement in which they announced that Michael Cohen, who infamously flipped on the president (for whom Cohen once said he “would take a bullet”) deserves “substantial prison time”, despite his cooperation.

While Flynn pled guilty to just one count, whereas Cohen had pled guilty to 8 federal crimes, what is remarkable is that despite his allegedly extensive cooperation with the Special Counsel culminating in over 70 hours of testimony, prosecutors said that they do “not ask for special leniency for Cohen”, calling his lies to Congress and the people “serious”, and instead “respectfully requests that this Court impose a substantial term of imprisonment” one that reflects “a modest downward variance from the applicable Guidelines range” which is in the range of 51-63 months, and thus the Probation Department recommends “a sentence of 42 months’ imprisonment.

Here are the key sections from the Preliminary Statement:

Cohen, an attorney and businessman, committed four distinct federal crimes over a period of several years. He was motivated to do so by personal greed, and repeatedly used his power and influence for deceptive ends. Now he seeks extraordinary leniency – a sentence of no jail time – based principally on his rose-colored view of the seriousness of the crimes; his claims to a sympathetic personal history; and his provision of certain information to law enforcement. But the crimes committed by Cohen were more serious than his submission allows and were marked by a pattern of deception that permeated his professional life (and was evidently hidden from the friends and family members who wrote on his behalf).

While prosecutors concede that Cohen did provide information to law enforcement, “including information that assisted the Special Counsel’s Office in ongoing matters” -which they agree is a factor to be considered by the Court, they add that “Cohen’s description of those efforts is overstated in some respects and incomplete in others.”

And while the document notes that Cohen “should receive credit for his assistance in the SCO investigation,” what is even more surprising is that “the credit given to Cohen should not approximate the credit a traditional cooperating witness would receive, given Cohen’s affirmative decision not to become one.”

For these reasons, the Office respectfully requests that this Court impose a substantial term of imprisonment, one that reflects a modest downward variance from the applicable Guidelines range” which was defined as a range of 51 to 63 months’ imprisonment.

Still, prosecutors did say Cohen has taken “significant steps to mitigate his criminal conduct”, although whether Cohen will be happy with the consequences – namely one very pissed off president – remains to be seen.

What is also notable from the late day filing, is that Federal Prosecutors for the first time also said that Cohen committed campaign finance crimes “in coordination with and at the direction of [Donald Trump, aka Individual-1]”, to wit:

During the campaign, Cohen played a central role in two similar schemes to purchase the rights to stories – each from women who claimed to have had an affair with Individual-1 – so as to suppress the stories and thereby prevent them from influencing the election. With respect to both payments, Cohen acted with the intent to influence the 2016 presidential election. Cohen coordinated his actions with one or more members of the campaign, including through meetings and phone calls, about the fact, nature, and timing of the payments. In particular, and as Cohen himself has now admitted, with respect to both payments, he acted in coordination with and at the direction of Individual-1. As a result of Cohen’s actions, neither woman spoke to the press prior to the election

Meanwhile, in a separate sentencing filing released Friday, Mueller and his team refused to take a position on what amount of prison time Cohen should serve, but stated that “any sentence of incarceration” the court in New York recommends would be “appropriate.”

Read the full pdf filing here.

end
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
AND SPECIAL THANKS TO CHRIS POWELL OF GATA FOR SENDING THIS TO US:
Let us close out the week with this offering from Greg Hunter and Greg Mannarino
(courtesy greg Hunter/USAWatchdog/Greg Mannarino

Mannarino Market Analysis, Mueller Exonerates Trump, FISA Declassification Coming

By Greg Hunter On December 7, 2018 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 363 12.7.18)

The stock market has made wild swings this week. Gregory Mannarino from TradersChoice.net comes on in a special one-on-one interview to make sense of it all. Mannarino gives his analysis on stocks, bonds, interest rates, gold and silver. Is the market setting up to go higher or fall on its head? Mannarino breaks it all down.

The biggest story of the week barely got any coverage from the mainstream media (MSM) because the MSM did not like the outcome of the Muller investigation. Mueller personally signed off on giving General Michael Flynn zero prison time and basically said there was no collusion between the Trump team and the Russians.

The funeral of President George H. W. Bush (41) took up a lot of coverage this week and postponed Congressional testimony from fired FBI Director James Comey, Obama Attorney General Loretta Lynch and DOJ Prosecutor John Huber, who is looking into the FBI’s handling of investigations of Trump and Clinton in the 2016 election. This was a failed coup against President Trump, and it will all come sooner rather than later.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

***Video will be up shortly***

After the Wrap-Up:

Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies will be the guest for the Early Sunday Release. Pento is an expert on the financial markets, and he tells us why he sees big financial trouble coming our way.

https://usawatchdog.com/mannarino-market- analysis-mueller-exonerates-trump-fisa-declassification- coming/

end

I WILL YOU ON MONDAY
H
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