DEC 6/USA PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM ABORTS A MASSIVE 800 POINT LOSS/GOLD UP $1.60 TO $1238.45/SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TO $14.44/THE BIG STORY WAS THE ARREST OF THE CFO OF THE LARGEST ELECTRONIC GIANTS IN CHINA, HUAWEI/CHINA IS FURIOUS WITH THE ARREST/CHAOS IN BRITAIN AS MAY LOSES ON 3 PROCEDURE VOTES/FRANCE IN TURMOIL AS 89,000 COPS ARE CALLED UP TO DEFEND AGAINST THE YELLOW VESTS/USA RECORDS ANOTHER HUGE 55.5 BILLION DOLLAR TRADE DEFICIT AND A HUGE 43 BILLION DOLLAR DEFICIT WITH CHINA/IN A MAJOR SWAMP STORY, JOHN SOLOMON REVEALS EMAILS WHICH PROVE BEYOND A REASONABLE DOUBT THAT THE FBI AND OTHER AGENCIES KNEW THAT THE STEELE DOSSIER WAS A PHONY AND NOT CORROBORATED/OTHER SWAMP STORIES/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1238.45 UP $1.60 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.44 DOWN 5 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1238.00

 

silver: $14.47

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

DEC

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 1150 NOTICE(S) FOR 115,000 OZ (3.57 tonnes)

Total number of notices filed so far for DEC:  5275  for 527,500 OZ  (16.407 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR DECEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

173 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  865,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3200 for 16,000,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $3769: up 2

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3744  DOWN 82 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1366 CONTRACTS FROM 179,909 DOWN TO 178,649 WITH YESTERDAY’S 6 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

1752 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1752 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1752 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1752 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.76 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 6 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

NOW 19.070 INITIALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC: 6227 CONTRACTS (FOR 4 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 6227 CONTRACTS) OR 31.14 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1556 CONTRACTS OR 7.78 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  31.14 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.44% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,708.16    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR NOVEMBER /2018:                                 247.18         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1366 WITH THE 6 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY AS THE BOYS CONTINUE WITH THEIR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OVER TO  ETFS AT THE START OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1260 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A TINY SIZED: 386 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1752 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1366 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 6 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.55 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .9050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 129% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 173 NOTICE(S) FOR 865,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./AND NOW DEC. AT 19.070 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 3905 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 396,014 WITH THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A FALL IN PRICE OF $4.25//.YESTERDAY’S TRADING) AS THESE GUYS JOINED SILVER IN THE ROUTINE MIGRATION OVER TO ETF’S AS WE APPROACH AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD  SIZED 5375 CONTRACTS:

 

DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5375 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 396,014. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1470 CONTRACTS:  3905 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5375 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 1752 CONTRACTS OR 175,200 OZ = 4.572 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $4.25

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5233 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 31,323 CONTRACTS OR 3,132,300 OZ OR 97.42 TONNES (4 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7831 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 97.42 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 97.42/2550 x 100% TONNES =  3.82% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,861.81  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018:                        552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3905 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($4.25) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5233 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5375 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 2030 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5375 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3905 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 6,14 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE FALL OF $4.25 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had: 1150 notice(s) filed upon for 115,000 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.60 TODAY

 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   758.21 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 758.21 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS  TODAY:

 

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ/

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1366 CONTRACTS from 179,909 DOWN TO 178,543  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

1752 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1752 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1366 CONTRACTS TO THE 1752 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN  OF 386 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1.930 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. AND NOW 19.070 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 6 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 1752 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 44.62 POINTS OR 1.68% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 663.30 POINTS OR 2.47% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 417.71 OR 1.91%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.22%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8934 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 51/53 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.11 for Brent. Stocks inEurope OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8934AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8965: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)It sure looks like the truce is over!! On behalf of the USA Canada arrests the CFO of   Huawei and the daughter of the founder Ren Zhengfei. I am sure that Xi is not thrilled with this. The charge: the firm sold goods to Iran despite sanctions.

( zerohedge)

ii)Wednesday evening trading due to the above event;  Dow futures crash over 500 points

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)Deutsche bank announces that the arrest is a clear signal that the trade war is escalating to a new level.

( zerohedge)

iv)The USA attack on Huawei intensifies with the arrest of its CFO.  You will recall that the USA outlawed all purchases of Huawei by the military as their were rumours of that Chinese have a backdoor entry into their products.  That caused a storm of protests from China as this has not been proven. Now they arrested the founders daughter ( its CFO) and China has announced it will take appropriate measures

(courtesy zerohedge)

v)Bill Blain explains why the arrest is a big deal as the USA tries to limit Chinese growth in the technology field.

This global trade war in his words will become a shooting war…

( Bill Blain)

vi)A defiant Huawei states that it will not change ties with suppliers due to USA pressure and it knows no reason for the arrest of its CFO.  The company states it is obeys all USA rules on not supplying sanctioned state actors

(courtesy zerohedge)

vii)I do not think that the markets will like this:  as Bolton was sitting down for dinner with Xi, he was aware of the Huawei’s arrest.  he is not sure if Trump new..

( zerohedge)

 

viii)We now learn the origins of the Huawei investigation: it was HSBC that flagged transactions between Huawei and Iran who sold the country parts mfg in the uSA

For more details see below
(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

Chaos in Gr Britain as May lost 3 procedural votes.  Bloomberg outlines what will happen after the Brexit vote.

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)FRANCE

My goodness:  France is set to deploy 89,000 cops as they fear a huge yellow vest rebellion on Saturday..and it seems that they are preparing for a coup attempt

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia/USA

The USA seems intent on annoying Russia as it prepares to sail a warship into the Black Sea, citing the Kerch Strait incident which was totally the fault of the Ukraine.

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil crashes after the Saudis propose a smaller than expected production cut, honouring Trump

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

I)Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
( zerohedge/Chris Powell)

ii)Von Greyerz states that gold will rise as central banks run out of metal to lease…and debts cannot be repaid.

( Keiser Report/Von Greyerz)

iii)Why we should buy gold

a must read…
Simon Black/Sovereign Man
iv)Rob Kirby interview
must view..
Rob Kirby/Reluctant Preppers.

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

 

 

ii)Market data/

a)With Trump putting on huge tariffs with China, it seems that it did not help as the uSA recorded another huge trade deficit, the worst in a decade at 55.5 billion dollars. Exports well and imports rose.and the deficit with China rose to 43 billion dollars.  Not only that but the trade deficit ex petroleum rose to a new record.  Next month’s reading will be worse than this month as petroleum plummeted.

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)The normally bullish ADP employment report disappoints the street as they state that job growth as likely peaked
(courtesy  ADP report/zerohedge)
c)For the past few weeks we have noticed that the initial jobless claims are hovering at 6 month highs.  Today it was led by Pennsylvania, at the heart of the rust belt employment sector
(courtesy zerohedge)

d)Yesterday we again received a phony ISM report that manufacturing was rising.  However Markit reported on dismal findings. Today, identical results with the USA service sector( zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)The USA beige book confirms that the USA economy is slowing

( zerohedge)

b)Seems that the Fed does not believe our crooked friends over at Wells Fargo on the reform plan to limit illegal behaviour

( zerohedge)

c)the following commentary from Dave Kranzler is a must read.  Here he correctly describes the dilemma facing the Fed and the USA.  You will note that the trade deficits are rising instead of falling.  This is because of Trump’s trade wars which has caused the dollar to rise and thus gold to fall.  If Trump wants to win the trade wars he must let the dollar fall and fall big time and that will cause gold to rise.

( Dave Kranzler/IRD)

d)Seems like a well placed WSJ article to juice to stock market

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Trump continues on the warpath criticizing Mueller with his phony “witch hunt”

( zerohedge)

b)There has been a string of emails uncovered which state categorically that the FBI knew the Steele Dossier was bogus and that it was used fraudulently in obtaining a FISA warrant which allowed the authorities to surveil Carter Page and others.  The FISA documents state that in essence Carter Page was a Russian spy..something which he was not.  No wonder Comey does not want to speak in private..if in public he can claim this is classified.

a must read..
( zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3905 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 396,014 WITH THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.25 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5375 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR DECEMBER:  5375 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5375 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  1470 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5375 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3905 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1470 contracts OR 147,000 OZ OR 4.572 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of December and we now have a total of 3479 contracts stand in December so we had a loss of 83 contracts.  We had 73 notices served yesterday, so we lost 10 contracts or 1000 oz will not stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards and as well they received a fiat bonus for their efforts.

The next delivery month after December is January which saw it FALL TO 3620 FOR A LOSS OF 438 CONTRACTS.  February LOST 3287 contracts to stand at 298,075 contracts.

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

AS A REMINDER WE HAVE ONLY 4.000 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD READY TO SERVE UPON OUR DEC LONGS.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 1150 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 11500 OZ. (3.57 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 1360 CONTRACTS FROM 179,909 DOWN TO 178,543 (AND FURTHER FROM NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 1752 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 1752 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1752.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 492 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  1366 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1752 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   386 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of DECEMBER and here in this front month of December we now have 787 contracts standing for a loss of 189 contracts.  We had 245 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we gained 56 contracts or an additional 280,000 oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating to accept a fiat bonus. We continue where we left off last month as queue jumping in silver is the norm for at least 20 months.

After  December we have the non active  January contract month and here we saw a gain of 4 contracts up to 1942 contracts.  February saw its another 12 contract gain to stand at 47. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a loss of 1233 contracts  down to 145,700

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 173 notice(s) filed for 865,000 OZ for the DEC, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 239,279 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  114,861  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 6-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 32,024.478 oz

Int Delaware

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

NIL

 

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1150 notice(s)
 115000 OZ
3.57 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
2329 contracts
(232900 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5275 notices
527500 OZ
16.407 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 1 dealer entries:

i Into the International Delaware Dealer account: 32,024.478. oz

 

 

total dealer deposits: 32,024.478  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

total gold customer deposits;  zero

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  0 oz

 

we had 1  adjustment..
i) Out of JPMorgan:  49,145.605 oz was adjusted out of the customer and into the dealer account

we still have not had any adjustments out of the dealer to the customer account to signify a settlement

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 821 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1150 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 249 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5275) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (3479 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (1150 x 100 oz per contract) equals 760,400 OZ OR 23.65 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (5275 x 100 oz)  + {3479)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1150 x 100 oz )which equals 760,400 oz standing OR 23.65 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DECEMBER.

WE LOST 10 CONTRACTS OR 2400 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND RECEIVED A GOOD FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EFFORTS.

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 15.179 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 23.65 TONNES STANDING FOR DECEMBER

THE CROOKS NOW HAVE TO RESORT TO CASH SETTLING GOLD CONTRACTS THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE GOLD AT THE COMEX.

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  569,179.070 oz or   17.703 tonnes*
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,181,288.840 oz 253.476 tonnes
*however we have 16.407 tonnes of gold ALREADY SERVED UPON against dealer inventory of 17.703 tonnes and so far we have had no settlements  as of yet.  We generally get a settlement when we see an adjustment from the dealer side to the customer side..
we had a total of 23.65 tonnes of gold standing for metal against only 17.703 tonnes of dealer gold and nothing has been settled so far…

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 100 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

DEC INITIAL standings/SILVER

DEC 6, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
18,879.500 oz
oz
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
504,803.995 oz
CNT
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
114,201.500
oz
CNT
JPM??
No of oz served today (contracts)
173
CONTRACT(S)
865,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
614 contracts
3,070,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3200 contracts

(16,000,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) into CNT: 504,803.995 oz

total dealer deposits: 504,803.995 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: 18,879.500 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.55 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.03% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

 

ii) Into CNT: 95,322.000 oz??

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 114,201.500  oz

we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of Scotia:  18,879.500
and this landed into JPMorgan

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 18,879.500  oz

 

we had 1 adjustments

i) Out of CNT:  55,324.190 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  88.355 million

total dealer + customer silver:  295.622  million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2018. contract month is represented by 173 contract(s) FOR 865,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3200 x 5,000 oz = 16,000,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (787) and the number of notices served upon today (173 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2018 contract month: 3200(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC( 787) -number of notices served upon today (173)x 5000 oz equals 19,070,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 56 contracts or 280,000 additional oz will stand and these guys refused to accept a London based forward as well as negating to accept a fiat bonus. The EFP route is nothing but a cash settlement process and it is done in London to avoid detection.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 63.645 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 178,543 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 178,543 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 892 million OZ  127.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.68-% (DEC 6/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.87% to NAV (DEC 6 /2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.68%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.44/TRADING 11.97/DISCOUNT 3.68

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 26/WITH GOLD DOWN 65 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

 

NOV 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 6.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 758.21 tonnes

*IN LAST 510 TRADING DAYS: 176.94 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 410 TRADING DAYS: A NET 16.94 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

NOV 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ

NOV 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

 

 

DEC 6/2018:

 

Inventory 318.735 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.49/ and libor 6 month duration 2.89

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .40

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.72%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.13

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.41

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

“Fake Markets” To Lead to Global Financial Crisis? – Goldnomics Podcast

– What are “Fake Markets” and will they lead to another global financial crisis? 
– What do fake markets mean for stock and bond market performance in the future? 
– Is this the right time to re-balance portfolios and hold more cash and gold?

In episode 9 of the Goldnomics Podcast, Stephen Flood GoldCore CEO talks to Francesco Filia CEO of Fasanara Capital and regular contributor to CNBC about his take on the ‘Fake Markets’ of today.

Markets are fake today as they are “heavily manipulated by monetary authorities.” 

“Fake markets” mean investors are all on the “same side of the boat and the boat can capsize.”

Listen to the full episode or skip directly to one of the following discussion points:

00:30 – Francesco Filia and Stephen Flood: can the performance of stock markets be trusted as a barometer for economic performance?
01:06 – Stay updated in all developments in precious metals by signing up for GoldCore’s market update on http://www.goldcore.com
01:27 – Meet Francesco Filia, CEO & CIO at Fasanara Capital.
02:28 – Francesco: Understanding fake markets and why you should be concerned.
03:10 – Fake markets today due to complete manipulation of markets by monetary authorities.
05:14 – Francesco: Understanding the difference between passive and active investments.
07:59 – Are ETFs a cause for concern?
10:10 – Swiss National Bank & Swiss equity market: A bubble waiting to burst?
11:40 – How strong is the argument for passive investments
12:19 – Greek Tier One Capital and the assumption of zero default risk: How sustainable is this?
14:08 – The definition of “Fake Markets.”
15:42 – Fake markets, systemic risk and investors: Identifying and avoiding the pitfalls.
17:40 – Are systemic risk indicators better than volatility based indicators?
19:50 – The Rate of Recovery: A good indicator of the temperament of the market?
22:10 – Is complexity theory a better way to understand markets?
24:09 – What can investors do to insulate themselves in Fake Markets?
25:48 – What can gold do to your portfolio in the event of a market correction?
28:03 – How can markets be fixed?
31:44 – Can central banks or official sector intervention fix the market?
32:54 – What can central banks do to protect the market and ensure systemic stability?
34:08 – Has the market bubble created more income inequality?
36:12 – Low rates: can bonds still save the day?
37:28 – Coming market transition: Any need for panic?
38:02 – Is this the right time to rebalance portfolios and hold more cash and gold?

Make sure you don’t miss a single episode… Subscribe to the Goldnomics Podcasts on iTunesSoundcloudBlubrry or YouTube

 

Secure Storage Ireland – Click here for information

 

News and Commentary

Gold inches higher as dollar dips amid risk aversion (CNBC.com)

Asian markets plunge, led by tech stocks, after Huawei exec’s arrest (MarketWatch.com)

May’s Brexit deal under fire as legal advice stiffens opposition (Reuters.com)

Gold prices end lower, a day after settling at their highest in over 4 months (MarketWatch.com)

Gold Gets Leapfrogged as Palladium Extends Rally to New Record (Bloomberg.com)


Source: Bloomberg

Market reaction to the French riots goes a long way to explaining them (MoneyWeek.com)

Carnage Continues: US Futures Flash Crash After Huawei CFO Arrest (ZeroHedge.com)

Yield Curve Just Inverted for the First Time in Years. Time to Reconsider Risk? (GoldSeek.com)

Empty Words Are Failing. A Timeline For What Comes Next (DollarCollapse.com)

Story of a Gold Coin (Plata.com.mx)

Is Wall Street still too bullish on FAANG? Some say so (CNBC.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

05 Dec: USD 1,236.15, GBP 970.13 & EUR 1,090.16 per ounce
04 Dec: USD 1,239.25, GBP 966.74 & EUR 1,086.45 per ounce
03 Dec: USD 1,231.05, GBP 966.00 & EUR 1,084.92 per ounce
30 Nov: USD 1,220.45, GBP 956.95 & EUR 1,073.75 per ounce
29 Nov: USD 1,226.25, GBP 960.03 & EUR 1,077.87 per ounce
28 Nov: USD 1,213.20, GBP 949.69 & EUR 1,074.77 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

05 Dec: USD 14.48, GBP 11.34 & EUR 12.75 per ounce
04 Dec: USD 14.55, GBP 11.35 & EUR 12.77 per ounce
03 Dec: USD 14.39, GBP 11.31 & EUR 12.69 per ounce
30 Nov: USD 14.24, GBP 11.16 & EUR 12.52 per ounce
29 Nov: USD 14.26, GBP 11.17 & EUR 12.55 per ounce
28 Nov: USD 14.15, GBP 11.06 & EUR 12.54 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Gold Is “Coiled” and Looks Set To Surge Like Natural Gas — Bloomberg Intelligence
– “Collapse Of Civilisation Is On The Horizon” – Attenborough Warns World Leaders
– Deutsche Bank May Cause The Next Global Crisis
– Ireland’s Mr Gold Reveals Nuggets Of Wisdom For When The Next Crash Comes
– BREXIT May Lead to UK Property Crash and Depression
– General Motors And General Electric Highlight The Ponzi Scheme That Is The US Economy
– A Worldwide Debt Default Is A Real Possibility
– Risk of Lower Lows in Gold Remains Prior to Spectacular Rally to Follow
– Gold and Silver Hold Firm as Stocks and Oil Lower in to US Holiday Weekend
– Is Brexit a Massive Threat to Globalisation?

Watch on Youtube here

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
ii) GATA stories
Von Greyerz states that gold will rise as central banks run out of metal to lease…and debts cannot be repaid.
(courtesy Keiser Report/Von Greyerz)

With inflation, central banks guarantee rising gold

price, von Greyerz tells’Keiser Report’

 Section: 

11:40p ET Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed last week by Max Keiser on Russia Today’s “The Keiser Report,” Swiss bullion dealer Egon von Greyerz said Western central banks will exhaust their gold reserves through leasing and other price-suppressing mechanisms as metal moves from West to East even as central banking generally will forever underwrite gold prices with inflation. With world debt now reaching four times the world’s annual productivity, von Greyerz said, that debt can never been repaid except through massive inflation.

So when will gold have its day? Von Greyerz predicts that it will come within the next five to seven years.

Keiser’s interview with von Greyerz is 13 minutes long and begins at the 12:45 mark at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q55xde1cUfo&feature=youtu.be&t=768

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

Why we should buy gold
a must read…
Simon Black/Sovereign Man

Why Buy Gold Now? Because Of The “I Don’t Knows”…

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

From 2000 through 2012, the price of gold increased every year, rising from around $280 an ounce to nearly $1,700. It was an unprecedented run.

Then, in 2013, gold took a nose dive, losing over 27% of its value.

It was widely reported that the Swiss National Bank, the former bastion of monetary conservatism, lost $10 billion that year just on its gold holdings.

As you probably know, central banks hold a portion of their reserves in gold. The practice goes back to when central banks actually had to have gold on hand to trade in and out of paper money (or even trade for goods and services).

And central banks still hold reserves in gold today, even though they don’t need it to transact like they used to.

So that begs the question, did the Swiss National Bank actually lose $10 billion? It still had every ounce of gold in its vaults. And gold, after all, ismoney.

Plus, the SNB wasn’t holding gold to speculate…

Today, central banks hold gold as a hedge against fiat money. These are the guys with their fingers on the printing press… so they know exactly the effect they have on money.

And right now, banks are buying up gold hand over fist. Central banks currently hold 20% of all the gold ever mined—33,000 metric tons.

And JPMorgan Chase says they’ll buy another 650 tons this year and next.

Why?

Gold is for the I don’t knows.

And right now, there are a LOT of I don’t knows.

Markets have been going crazy over the past few months.

After a record bull run for stocks, we are now seeing massive volatility with the Dow regularly jumping 500+ points in a single day. Just yesterday, the Dow fell a whopping 800 points.

And there’s plenty of reasons for market to be worried today. For one, we’re 10 years in to a raging bull market… and it’ getting long in the tooth.

Plus, the Fed is raising interest rates. And when the price of money gets more expensive, people get a little tighter with it. That means it’s tougher for businesses and individuals to borrow. All things equal, higher rates mean lower prices.

Before last week, Fed Chairman Powell said rates were “well below” where they should be. And the markets reacted negatively.

Then, last week, after seeing how fragile markets were, Powell said rates are “just below” where they should be.

Just that one word difference sent markets soaring. But the joy was short lived.

There’s also the trade war with China, intensified by the Trump administration tariffs.

And then at the summit in Buenos Aries last week, China and the USA suddenly came to an agreement. They will halt the tariffs for 90 days for a three-month truce in the trade war. That sent markets soaring.

Then people read some tweet from Trump and worried the tariffs might be back on… markets dumped.

If there is one thing markets hate, it is uncertainty. And there’s plenty of uncertainty to go around today.

And while we’re seeing these late-cycle swings in the market, gold is as steady as ever…

While the DOW dips and climbs by hundreds of points, gold is still hanging out just below $1,250 an ounce. And it really hasn’t made any major moves up or down since 2013.

Yet today, an ounce of gold has about the same purchasing power as it had 1,100 years ago… talk about steady.

So while every other asset is still at or near all time highs, gold is relatively cheap.

Gold has held its ground during all this market volatility.

That is exactly how you want insurance to act. It holds steady in the face of craziness, even selling for a discount when everything else is as expensive as it ever has been.

It makes more sense to buy something cheap, that no one is excited about, while people clamber for exciting but massively overvalued stocks like Tesla and Netflix.

Since 2008 this massive monetary experiment of quantitative easing has sent stocks and assets to dizzying, unsustainable highs.

We think this experiment is coming to an end. The day of reckoning is close.

Stocks are up and down, trade wars are on and off, interest rates could keep soaring, or level off…

What do you do for the I don’t knows?

You get some cheap gold while you still can.

And by the way, while gold is on sale, silver is an even better deal.

In ancient times, the price ratio between gold and silver was about 15:1, meaning an ounce of gold was worth about 15 ounces of silver.

But over the past decades, this ratio has been closer to 50:1—an ounce of gold sold for 50 times what an ounce of silver sold for.

Today, that ratio is about 85:1.

To be fair, this could mean gold is overvalued, not that silver in undervalued.

But when gold has the same purchasing power as a millennium ago… when it has stayed steady the past seven years and grew every year of the decade before that…

It’s a safe bet that gold goes up, and silver does too, possibly even more than gold.

end
Rob Kirby interview
must view..
Rob Kirby/Reluctant Preppers.

 

*Massive Drawdown of Physical Metal | Rob Kirby

https://youtu.be/QfSwMn41xb0

end

 

________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8934/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8964   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 44.62 POINTS OR 1.68%

. HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 663.30 POINTS OR 2.47%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 417,71 POINTS OR 1.91%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.03/Euro FALLS TO 1.1347

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.06/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.80/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 51.53 and Brent: 60.11

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.25%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 3.14% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.45%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.89: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.22

3k Gold at $1236.35 silver at:14.37   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 44/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.95

3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.80DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9965 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1309 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.25%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.89% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.15%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3716

 

Global Markets, Futures Plunge As Traders Brace For

China’s Response

It is a sea of red out there as traders brace for China’s response.

Shortly after S&P futures flash crashed at the start of the overnight session, with the CME triggering multiple Velocity Logic events causing 10-sec pauses to slow down trading…

… after US markets were shut to commemorate the death of George H.W. Bush on Wednesday, global stock markets tumbled for a third day on Thursday as the arrest of the CFO of Chinese telecom giant Huawei in Canada for extradition to the United States prompted fears of fresh tensions between the two economic superpowers, and sparked dread as to how China would respond.

S&P futures by as much as 1.9% during the Asian session in a sudden and unexpected move that sent world equity markets reeling, and was trading near session lows, just above 2,650 this morning.

That was just the start of it, and in the latest US-China trade war linked shockwave to slam global markets, these were some of the stand out moves:

  • Dow Jones futures were off more than 450 pointsNasdaq futs fell 2.4 percent as Apple suppliers plunged amid renewed production cuts
  • Europe’s Stoxx 600 tumbled 2.2% to the lowest in almost two years
  • Germany’s DAX tumbled below 11,000 for the first time in two years
  • WTI crashed below $51 after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said OPEC hasn’t yet reached a deal on production cuts
  • Deutsche Bank plunged to a new record low, dropping as low as €7.71
  • The yuan dropped the most since October.
  • Treasuries jumped again, sending the 10Y yield to 2.89%
  • The Bloomberg dollar index spiked amid safe-haven flows, rising just shy of 2018 highs.
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted its worst day in six weeks
  • China’s 2nd largest telecom equipment maker ZTE Corp crashed 9% in Hong Kong

News of the arrest of Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou, the daughter of the firm’s founder, who was detained by Canadian police on the same day Trump and Xi held their dinner in Buenos Aires, triggered renewed fireworks coming just as Washington and Beijing prepare for crucial trade negotiations and threatened to reignite U.S.-China tensions. The yuan dropped the most since October.

Asian markets took a beating. Huawei is not listed but China’s second-largest telecom equipment maker ZTE Corp sank 9% in Hong Kong while most of the nearby national bourses lost at least 2 percent. Japan’s Nikkei shed 1.9%, closing at its lowest level since Oct. 30, with semi-conductor related shares leading the losses. MSCI’s ex-Japan Asia-Pacific index lost 2.0%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 2.5% while Chinese bluechips lost 2.1% to take their 2018 slump to 20%.

Europe slumped too in early trading as 3 percent falls for the tech sector, miners and also carmakers kicked London, Frankfurt and Paris to two-year lows.

Needless to say, early market commentary was dire:

  • “We had this very ugly new turn and just the degree to which the market has reacted just suggests to me that they are vulnerable right now,” said Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy. “It think we should all be very careful, it is not looking good, especially if the S&P 500 goes to new lows.”
  • “There are so many forces weighing against markets right now, whether it’s the China slowdown, weak European data, Fed hikes, uncertainty around trade and now Brexit as well,” Bilal Hafeez, head of fixed-income research for EMEA at Nomura, told Bloomberg TV. “We really need to see some stabilization in any of those factors to see markets stabilize now.”
  • “This move against the Huawei CFO has just added another spanner in the works,” Eleanor Creagh, strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, told Bloomberg TV in Sydney. “It’s really illustrative of the fact that the trade truce we saw over the weekend between Trump and Xi doesn’t really do much to mend the underlying relationship between the U.S. and China that is still deteriorating.”

And while Hardy said that President Trump may try to send some reassuring tweets later, for now traders are not taking any chances with S&P 500 futures near session lows, down almost 2 percent, and over 5% in the past two trading days after Tuesday’s 3.2% plunge. The losses would have been even steeper had CME Group’s Chicago Mercantile Exchange not implemented a series of 10-second trading halts in Asia that had limited the initial drop.

Not helping sentiment, overnight BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said economic risks from abroad could be severe, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report showed fading optimism over growth prospects at U.S. firms citing growing instances of economic “slowdown”.

The plunge persisted even though a Chinese government spokesman said that China and the U.S. have reached agreement in the sectors of agriculture, autos, and energy, and China will immediately start implementing that consensus. Still, there’s no official, confirmed statement of what China agreed as part of the deal.

“China will start from agricultural products, autos and energy to immediately implement specific items that China and the U.S. have agreed upon,” Ministry of Commerce Spokesman Gao Feng told reporters in Beijing. “In the next 90 days we will work in accordance with the clear timetable and road map to negotiate in areas where both sides have an interest and there are mutual benefits, such as intellectual property rights protection, technology cooperation, market access, and the trade balance.”

That reassurance however faded in light of the shocking arrest, and the yuan eased 0.3% to 6.8835 per dollar in offshore trade. China’s foreign ministry said neither Canada and the United States had clarified their reason for the move but a source had earlier told Reuters it was related to violations of U.S. sanctions on Iran.

The arrest again heightened the sense of a major collision between the world’s two largest economic powers not just over tariffs but also over technological hegemony. Britain’s BT Group said it was removing Huawei’s equipment from the core of its existing 3G and 4G mobile operations. Australia and New Zealand have also rejected Huawei’s products.

“The U.S. has been telling its allies not to use Huawei products for security reasons and is likely to continue to put pressure on its allies,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. “So while there was a brief moment of optimism after the weekend U.S.-China talks but the reality is, it won’t be that easy.”

Meanwhile, half way around the word, traders were also on pins and needles waiting to hear from the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna about what kind of cuts OPEC and other oil producers like Russia could make to their output. And in the latest price shock, WTI plunged almost 5% just above $50 a barrel as Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said going into the day long meeting that 1 million “would be enough”; with consensus among analysts for somewhere between 1-1.3 million barrels per day, this led to a quick waterfall in oil prices.

At the same time, and adding to worries about U.S. recession risks, the Treasury yield curve remained inverted between two- and five-year zones; the 10Y yield dropped as low as 2.87% overnight – a 3 month low – amid a flood to safety. Yields on German 10Y bunds held near six-month lows in risk off environment.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for a third day of gains as part of the global flight to safety. The yen led gains in G-10 as havens were supported. Elsewhere in FX, the euro barely budged at $1.1338 and the Canadian dollar languished near the 18-month low it had hit the previous day after cautious noises from the Bank of Canada. The pound drifted as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May searched for a compromise to avoid a crushing defeat on her Brexit deal in a key vote in Parliament next week.

In the latest Brexit news, UK PM May was being pushed by cabinet members to postpone next week’s Parliament vote on Brexit amid worries she is facing a loss so disastrous it could collapse the government. Instead, cabinet members believe that the PM should devote more time to selling the deal. Furthermore, reports have suggested that PM May has sent her Chief Whip to try find a way forward with the ERG by offering a potential Parliamentary ‘lock’ which would require lawmakers to give their consent before some of the more controversial parts of the UK’s exit from the EU came into effect.

U.S. jobs data is due on Friday. If the figures show any sign of serious weakness, markets are likely to react HSBC’s head of macro economic strategy, Shuji Shirota, said.

Expected data include trade balance and factory orders. Kroger, Broadcom, and Lululemon are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.7% to 2656.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.8% to 347.85
  • MXAP down 1.8% to 150.77
  • MXAPJ down 2% to 485.10
  • Nikkei down 1.9% to 21,501.62
  • Topix down 1.8% to 1,610.60
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.5% to 26,156.38
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.7% to 2,605.18
  • Sensex down 1.4% to 35,366.35
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5,657.65
  • Kospi down 1.6% to 2,068.69
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to 0.258%
  • Euro unchanged at $1.1344
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 9.4 bps to 2.696%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 1.451%
  • Brent futures down 4% to $59.07/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,236.64
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.12

Top Overnight Headlines

  • Huawei Technologies CFO was arrested in Canada over potential violations of U.S. sanctions on Iran, provoking outrage from China and complicating thorny trade negotiations just as they enter a critical juncture
  • Saudi Arabia proposed a moderate oil- production cut from OPEC and its allies that would gently rebalance the market, seeking to walk a fine line between preventing a surplus and appeasing U.S. President Donald Trump
  • German factory orders unexpectedly rose for a third month, underpinning growth momentum after Europe’s largest economy contracted in the third quarter
  • The EU’s highest court will say next week whether the U.K. should be allowed to reverse Brexit, in a landmark ruling that could offer hope to those who want the country to stay in the bloc
  • President Donald Trump has used tariffs as one of his most powerful tools for fighting his trade wars, but he’s also wielding leverage with another weapon: uncertainty
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell wants to avoid being tagged as the fool in the shower. And that’s why he’s likely to be especially cautious about marching interest rates higher in 2019

Asian stocks were lower across the board for a 3rd consecutive day with sentiment dampened after the US market closure and reports that Canada arrested Huawei’s CFO at the request of US authorities for alleged violations of sanctions against Iran. This prompted demands by China’s Embassy for an immediate release of the executive and led to concerns of the potential ramifications to trade discussions which weighed heavily on US equity futures. As such, Emini S&P declined by over 60 points and DJIA futures were down by more than 500 points shortly after the reopen which forced the CME to intervene to prevent a harder drop, while ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.9%) were also weaker with the latter pressured by detrimental currency flows.  Hang Seng (-2.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.6%) conformed to the negativity with the Hong Kong benchmark underperforming amid losses across all its components and as local money markets rates edged higher again, while the PBoC announcement of a 1-yr Medium-term Lending Facility failed to support China with the operation at a reduced amount of CNY 187.5bln vs. Prev. CNY 403.5bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher amid a continuation of the declines across yields and with safe-haven demand also underpinned by the weakness across equities.

Top Asian News

  • SoftBank Is Said to Place All Shares for $23 Billion IPO
  • Takeda Downgrade Looms After Shareholders Approve Shire Deal
  • China’s Drugmakers Plunge Most Since 2009 on Price Concerns
  • Anta-Led Consortium Is Said to Near Deal to Acquire Amer Sports

European equities (Eurostoxx -2.0%) have taken the lead from US futures and Asia-Pac trade overnight with US-Chinese trade concerns reignited by news that Canada arrested Huawei’s CFO at the request of US authorities for alleged violations of sanctions against Iran. This prompted demands by China’s Embassy for an immediate release of the executive, which subsequently weighed heavily on US equity futures. Despite commentary from China ahead of the open stating that their ultimate goal in US-China negotiations is to remove all tariffs, overnight developments have weighed heavily on sentiment in Europe thus far. The follow-through of events overnight has placed weight on IT names with STMicroelectronics (a supplier to Huawei) lower by -4.8% with losses also observed in Dialog Semiconductor (-2.6%) and Infineon (-3.3%) among others . Elsewhere, energy names underperform amid initial comments from the OPEC ministers in Vienna, signalling a potential cut in the low end of the expected range. In turn, European Oil and Gas Index fell 3.4% in-fitting with price action in the oil complex (BP -4.3%, Total -2.5%).

Top European News

  • Italy’s Salvini Says He Opposes New Taxes for Auto Sector: Ansa
  • Populists Split as Conte Seeks Deficit Trim for Juncker Meeting
  • German Orders Rise for Third Month, Underpinning Recovery Hopes
  • VW Brand Speeds Up Profit Target Ahead of Electric-Car Push

In FX, JPY/USD/CHF – All beneficiaries of safe-haven positioning/demand, as the global stock rout continues and intensifies, but to varying degrees with Usd/Jpy retreating below 113.00 while Usd/Chf holds near parity and the DXY remains around 97.000 amidst heavy losses in certain G10 counterparts. However, some hefty and layered option expiries in Usd/Jpy could keep that pair in check, with 1.6 bn rolling off between 112.75-80 and a similar amount sitting at 112.95-113.00, ahead of more 1+ bn maturities above the figure up to 113.75.

  • AUD/CAD/NZD – The non-US Dollars have extended declines vs the Greenback and underperformance against other majors, as bearish independent impulses exacerbate the negative impact of broader risk aversion. Aud/Usd is now testing 0.7200 bids and psychological support following dovish commentary from RBA’s Debelle in wake of this week’s disappointing GDP data, with rate cuts back on the agenda if the economy slows further and the baseline scenario of the next policy move being a hike does not pan out. By the same token, and with the added pressure of collapsing crude prices amidst talk of no more than 1 mn output cuts from OPEC+, the Loonie has continued its post-BoC plunge to circa 1.3440, while the Kiwi has slipped below 0.6900 towards 0.6850, but is deriving underlying support from the greater demise in the Aud again, as the cross retreats through 1.0500 and to a fresh ytd low around 1.0480.
  • GBP/EUR – The Pound and single currency are both holding up reasonably well given the increasingly risk-off environment, not to mention ongoing Brexit and Italian budget tension, as Cable maintains 1.2700+ status and Eur/Usd stays above 1.1300. Note, mega option expiries in close proximity from 1.1295-1.1300, 113.50-60 to 1.1380 (1.65 bn, 1.7 bn and circa 1.4 bn respectively).

In commodities, Brent (-4.3%) and WTI (-4.2%) have continued to drift lower as the 175th OPEC meeting begins, with initial remarks from OPEC delegates suggesting that OPEC+ could only cut 1mln BPD if Russia agrees to cut 150k BPD, adding they would be willing to cut over 1.3mln BPD if Russia cuts 250k BPD. Sources thereafter went on to state that any cut is unlikely to be over 1.4mln BPD. Russia’s role in the agreement continues to remain a source of speculation with prices hampered by comments from the Russian Energy Minister Novak suggesting that it is difficult for Russia to cut output quickly in Winter. WTI and Brent crude futures were then dragged lower once again after the Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih says there is no agreement yet to cut but all options are on the table, including a no deal. Al-Falih then added that a 1mln BPD cut will be enough for OPEC+, a comment which appeared to add to the downside in energy markets with the level touted not well received by the market, particularly after he then went on to state that the KSA are content with the current oil price. Furthermore, questions also remain over who might not participate in any output cut with NOC’s Sanallah contradicting comments from the Oman oil minister overnight after stating that Libya is hoping for an exemption from the OPEC cuts. Additionally, Iran continues to hold a tough stance in negotiations by stating that they will not be a part of any deal to reduce output until sanctions are removed. Note, this week’s DoE report will be released today due to yesterday’s market closure. Gold is trading flat within a tight USD 5/oz range, with spot palladium trading at a premium to gold for the first time in 16 years; as prices hit record levels of USD 1246.50 in the previous session. Separately, China has reportedly asked steel mills in the province of Tangshan to being implementing winter curbs due to a reduction in air quality.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 153.6%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 195,000, prior 227,000
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $55.0b deficit, prior $54.0b deficit
  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, est. 2.3%, prior 2.2%; Unit Labor Costs, est. 1.0%, prior 1.2%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 234,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.69m, prior 1.71m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 60.6
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 54.4, prior 54.4; Markit US Composite PMI, prior 54.4
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, est. 59, prior 60.3
  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. -2.0%, prior 0.7%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.4%
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. -2.38%, prior -4.4%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.0%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.3%
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, prior $2.19t
  • 12:15pm: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on the U.S. Economic Outlook
  • 6:30pm: Fed’s Williams Holds Discussion With Mervyn King in NY
  • 6:45pm: Powell Gives Brief Welcome Remarks at Housing Conference

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 44.62 POINTS OR 1.68% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 663.30 POINTS OR 2.47% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 417.71 OR 1.91%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.22%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8934 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 51/53 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.11 for Brent. Stocks inEurope OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8934AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8965: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

END

3 C CHINA

It sure looks like the truce is over!! On behalf of the USA Canada arrests the CFO of   Huawei and the daughter of the founder Ren Zhengfei. I am sure that Xi is not thrilled with this. The charge: the firm sold goods to Iran despite sanctions.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trade Truce Over? Canada Arrests Huawei CFO At US Request

Mere hours after Chinese officials finally affirmed President Trump’s description of Saturday’s trade ‘truce’ – this after fears that the true nature of the agreement might have been “lost in translation” helped trigger the worst one-day market selloff since October – the DOJ has gone ahead and kicked the hornet’s nest, seriously jeopardizing the prospects for a prolonged trade detente between the world’s two biggest economies.

Sabrina

Canada’s Globe and Mail reported late on Wednesday that on December 1 – on the same day as the Trump-Xi dinner – Canadian authorities arrested Wanzhou Meng, the CFO of Huawei Technologies and daughter of the telecom giant’s founder, Ren Zhengfei. An ex-officer with the People’s Liberation Army, Ren is one of the country’s most revered business figures.

“Wanzhou Meng was arrested in Vancouver on December 1. She is sought for extradition by the United States, and a bail hearing has been set for Friday,” Justice department Ian McLeod said in a statement to The Globe and Mail. “As there is a publication ban in effect, we cannot provide any further detail at this time. The ban was sought by Ms. Meng.

Meng is said to be a “rising star” at Shenzhen-based Huawei, the world’s second-largest maker of telecommunications equipment.  Reuters reported in 2013 that Ms. Meng served on the board of a Hong Kong-based Skycom Tech that later attempted to sell embargoed Hewitt Packard computer equipment to Iran’s largest mobile-phone operator. At least 13 pages of the Skycom proposal were marked “Huawei confidential” and carried Huawei’s logo. Huawei has said neither it nor Skycom ultimately provided the HP equipment. HP said it prohibits the sale of its products to Iran.

The CFO is now facing extradition to the US on suspicions that she violated US sanctions against Iran(allegations that nearly resulted in a devastating Treasury “death sentence” earlier this year for Huawei rival ZTE).

Prosecutors in New York have been investigating suspicions that Huawei violated US sanctions against Iran since earlier this year. News of the probe was first reported in April. The G&M adds that the probe is being run out of the U.S. attorney’s office in Brooklyn.

We seriously doubt the Chinese leaders will interpret Wanzhou’s arrest as a gesture of good faith and trust at a time when negotiations over a possible trade truce were expected to finally begin in earnest after a months-long standoff.

To understand the magnitude of this arrest, just imagine how the US would react if Beijing arrested Jeff Bezos’ (hypothetical) daughter?

As investors digest the implications of the DOJ’s investigation, expect a kneejerk response where investors shoot first Thursday and dump shares of big Huawei suppliers, as they did with ZTE. Should they do the same with broader S&P futures amid concerns that the trade truce is back to square one zero, Trump will have a choice: releasing Meng or watching the any last hopes of Christmas rally fade into the distance.

end

Wednesday evening trading due to the above event;  Dow futures crash over 500 points

(courtesy zerohedge)

Carnage Continues: US Futures Crash At Re-Open After Huawei CFO Arrest

Having taken a day off to watch Bush’s funeral – drifting modestly higher before the early close – reports of the arrest of Huawei’s CFO at the request of US authorities has sparked carnage at the re-open.

As we detailed earlier, mere hours after Chinese officials finally affirmed President Trump’s description of Saturday’s trade ‘truce’ – this after fears that the true nature of the agreement might have been “lost in translation” helped trigger the worst one-day market selloff since October – the DOJ has gone ahead and kicked the hornet’s nest, seriously jeopardizing the prospects for a prolonged trade detente between the world’s two biggest economies.

Sabrina

Dow futures were down over 500 points as they opened…

 

The selling is across all the major US index futures…

For now there is no reaction in Yuan or Treasuries.

For now it appears that the trade truce is back to square one zero, leaving Trump with a choice: releasing Meng or watching the any last hopes of Christmas rally fade into the distance.

 

end

The USA attack on Huawei intensifies with the arrest of its CFO.  You will recall that the USA outlawed all purchases of Huawei by the military as their were rumours of that Chinese have a backdoor entry into their products.  That caused a storm of protests from China as this has not been proven. Now they arrested the founders daughter ( its CFO) and China has announced it will take appropriate measures

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

China Outraged At Arrest Of Huawei CFO, Warns It Will “Take All Measures”

So much for a trade war truce between China and the US, or a stock market Christmas rally for that matter.

Shortly after the news hit that Huawei CFO Wanzhou Meng — also deputy chairwoman and the daughter of Huawei’s founder — was arrested on December 1, or right around the time Trump and Xi were having dinner in Buenos Aires last Saturday, and faces extradition to the U.S. as a result of a DOJ investigation into whether the Chinese telecom giant sold gear to Iran despite sanctions on exports to the region, China immediately lodged a formal protest publishing a statement at its embassy in Canada, and demanding the U.S. and its neighbor “rectify wrongdoings” and free Meng, warning it would “closely follow the development of the issue” and will “take all measures” to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens.

Full statement below:

Remarks of the Spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in Canada on the issue of a Chinese citizen arrested by the Canadian side

At the request of the US side, the Canadian side arrested a Chinese citizen not violating any American or Canadian law. The Chinese side firmly opposes and strongly protests over such kind of actions which seriously harmed the human rights of the victim. The Chinese side has lodged stern representations with the US and Canadian side, and urged them to immediately correct the wrongdoing and restore the personal freedom of Ms. Meng Wanzhou.

We will closely follow the development of the issue and take all measures to resolutely protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens.

Meng’s arrest will immediately heighten tensions between Washington and Beijing just days after the world’s two largest economies agreed on a truce in their growing trade conflict. It will, or at least should, also prompt any US execs currently in China to think long and hard if that’s where they want to be, say, tomorrow when Xi decides to retaliate in kind.

Meng’s father Ren Zhengfei, a former army engineer who’s regularly named among China’s top business executives, has won acclaim at home for turning an electronics reseller into the world’s second-largest smartphone maker and a major producer of networking gear.

As Bloomberg notes, the CFO’s arrest will be regarded back home as an attack on China’s foremost corporate champions. While Alibaba and Tencent dominate headlines thanks to flashy growth and high-profile billionaire founders, Ren’s company is by far China’s most global technology company, with operations spanning Africa, Europe and Asia.

“Tencent and Alibaba may be domestic champions and huge platforms in of their own rights, but Huawei has become a global powerhouse,” said Neil Campling, an analyst at Mirabaud Securities Ltd. It is “5G standards that are at the heart of the wider IP debate and why the U.S. and her allies are now doing everything they can to cut to the heart of the Chinese technology IP revolution.”

At the same time, Huawei’s technological ambitions have also gotten the company in hot water with the US: its massive push into future mobile communications has raised hackles in the U.S. and become a focal point for American attempts to contain China’s ascendance.

Going back to the arrest, the U.S. Justice Department declined to comment about the circumstances involving the CFO, although the biggest question on everyone’s mind right now is whether Trump was aware of the pending arrest at the time of his dinner with the Chinese president, and why exactly he had greenlighted the move which would certainly result in another diplomatic scandal, promptly crushing and goodwill that was generated at the G-20 dinner.

Meanwhile, in a statement, Huawei said the arrest was made on behalf of the U.S. so Meng could be extradited to “face unspecified charges” in the Eastern District of New York.

“The company has been provided very little information regarding the charges and is not aware of any wrongdoing by Ms. Meng,” Huawei said. “The company believes the Canadian and U.S. legal systems will ultimately reach a just conclusion. Huawei complies with all applicable laws and regulations where it operates, including applicable export control and sanction laws and regulations of the UN, U.S. and EU.”

Tensions between the Chinese telecom giant and U.S. authorities escalated in 2016, when the US voiced concerns for the first time that Huawei and others could install back doors in their equipment that would let them monitor users in the U.S. Huawei has denied those allegations. The Pentagon stopped offering Huawei’s devices on U.S. military bases citing security concerns. Best Buy Co., one of the largest electronics retailers in the U.S., also recently stopped selling Huawei products.

In August, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a bill banning the government’s use of Huawei technology based on the security concerns. The same month, Australia banned the use of Huawei’s equipment for new faster 5G wireless networks in the country and New Zealand last week did the same, citing national security concerns. Similar moves are under consideration in the U.K. The U.S., which believes Huawei’s equipment can be used for spying, is contacting key allies including Germany, Italy and Japan, to get them to persuade companies in their countries to avoid using equipment from Huawei, the Wall Street Journal reported last week.

In 2016, the Commerce Department sought information regarding whether Huawei was possibly sending U.S. technology to Syria and North Korea as well as Iran.

The U.S. previously banned ZTE Corp., a Huawei competitor, for violating a sanctions settlement over transactions with Iran and North Korea.

The cynics out there may claim that the US response is merely in place to delay the development of the company which in the third quarter overtook Apple as the No. 2 global smartphone maker, shipping more than 52.2 million units according to Gartner Inc.

“This is what you call playing hard ball,” said Michael Every, head of Asia financial markets research at Rabobank in Hong Kong. “China is already asking for her release, as can be expected, but if the charges are serious, don’t expect the US to blink.”

The biggest question is what will China do next. One look at futures, which flash crashed earlier when the news of the CFO’s arrest first hit, suggests that whatever it is, Beijing will probably not be happy.

END

Deutsche bank announces that the arrest is a clear signal that the trade war is escalating to a new level.

( zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank: “This Is A Clear Signal That The Trade War Is Escalating To A New Level”

As if traders did not have enough reasons to be worried, here is Deutsche Bank’s Chief China Economist Zhiwei Zhang, who writes that the arrest of Huawei’s CFO on Dec 1 due to an US extradition request over Iran sanctions “is a clear signal that the trade war is escalating to a new level. We think the probability of US and China reaching a trade deal by Mar 1 has dropped to 30% from 40%. US business interests in China face higher risk than before.”

Some more details:

Huawei has been widely recognized as one of the most successful technology companies in China. This news pushed policy makers in Beijing into an awkward position. Public opinion in China will likely become more negative in respect to the trade war, and potentially against US companiesThe government may find it difficult to tell the public that they have offered significant concessions to the US. The trade talk has just been resumed at the G20 meeting; now its outlook has darkened.

As we highlighted on Nov 20 , technology has become the focus of bilateral economic tension. The US government already proposed imposition of export controls on “emerging technologies”. This Huawei event suggests indeed technology has become the new battleground.

With futures in freefall this morning, the market clearly agrees.

END

Bill Blain explains why the arrest is a big deal as the USA tries to limit Chinese growth in the technology field.

This global trade war in his words will become a shooting war…

(courtesy Bill Blain)

Blain: “I Think The Global Trade War Is Now A Shooting War”

Blain’s Morning Porridge submitted by Bill Blain

“Why So Serious?”

I think the Global Trade War is now a shooting war.

A few weeks ago one of my very smart CIO contacts warned me the real story of the year isn’t just the implications for supply chains from a Trade Spat, but a more fundamental “Tech Cold War” between China and the US for dominance. It’s a battle that will shortly reach epic proportions, force huge change in the global tech supply chain, and has massive implications for current incumbents.

Over this last few days, its all going off. The US, Australia, NZ and the UK have banned Huawei from new 5G systems over embedded spy tech and “security” issues. Now we learn that even as Xi and Trump were meeting, the CFO of Huawei was arrested in Canada for violating US sanctions on Iran! She is also the daughter of Hauwei’s founder.

I suspect the news will trigger a massive downtrade in stocks today. Brace, Brace, Brace!

The core objective of Trump’s trade war threats are to contain China’s becoming a technological equal and competitor after all its learnt from access and replication of US tech. If we see a full Tech War with lines drawn, then its potentially clobbers everything from Apple down. It means a choice between US Tech or China Tech.

“Made in China 2025” is the Chinese target of becoming the leader in tech, and avoiding just being a US manufacturing centre. Its happening – Hauwei’s lead in 5G is just one example.

More on this next week – but its going to be a massive story. Blade Runner anyone?

* * *

Meanwhile, story on BBerg y’day says it’s the worst market since 1972. Did you know 1972 was the longest year ever? 2 leap seconds were added (one in June and one in Dec), making it 366 days and 2 seconds long.

I don’t particularly remember 1972.. swimmer David Wilkie came to our school to show off his Olympic silver medal, I had a double digit birthday, Werner Von Braun resigned from NASA, the Vietnam war rumbled on and Britain went to war with Iceland over cod. But I don’t remember the markets so clearly.

Last year nearly every major asset class posted decent gains. This year everything looks pants.  Just like 1972! This year not a single major asset class has posted returns in excess of 5%. Treasuries and Investment grade bonds, Hi-yield, US, International or Emerging Stocks, real estate and commodities have all had awful years.. So much for retiring…

Of course, at this point someone will Samba onto the stage singing that Brazil stocks are up 17% in 2018! (A new populist president has had a positive effect..)

Or you could make the comment that over 2 years – 1 year is such an arbitrary number – even US stocks are currently up 10%. Why the long faces..? Over the last 9 years and 240 days… the S&P is up 294%! Wowser. Best not to forget the lessons of 2018. (Quick… what are they?)

The one area that interests me particularly is Residential – it’s the largest asset class on the planet – around $300 trillion, but it’s very granular – lots of tiny lots owned by individuals. Its also the closest in terms of relation to global GDP. Lets assume we get past these little hiccups in Brexit, trade wars, and a possible recession next year, and go back to the simple reality Resi is a rather effective way to track and beat growth.. Might be worth thinking about – while lots of funds are looking to exit “Resi” trades – might be time to go contrarian!

end

A defiant Huawei states that it will not change ties with suppliers due to USA pressure and it knows no reason for the arrest of its CFO.  The company states it is obeys all USA rules on not supplying sanctioned state actors

(courtesy zerohedge)

A Defiant Huawei Says It Won’t Change Ties With Suppliers Due To US Pressure

A defiant Huawei Technologies sent a letter on Thursday night to its global supply-chain partners, which was seen by Sina, according to which it won’t change ties with its suppliers, and adding that it has “very little” information regarding U.S. accusations against its CFO Meng Wanzhou, and has “no knowledge of any improper behavior on the CFO’s part.”

The company added that it believes the Canadian, U.S., judicial systems will come to fair conclusions to the case; and that Huawei will update its partners if it has further information

But most notably, Huawei said the American “use of all sorts of means to pressure business goes against fair competition” adding that won’t change its cooperation with global supply-chain partners because of the U.S. actions.

Meanwhile, everyone’s attention remains glued to Trump’s twitter feed who in addition to not tweeting about the market for quite a while, has yet to opine on the Huawei scandal du jour.

end

I do not think that the markets will like this:  as Bolton was sitting down for dinner with Xi, he was aware of the Huawei’s arrest.  he is not sure if Trump new..

(courtesy zerohedge)

Bolton Was Aware Huawei CFO Was Arrested While Having Dinner With Xi

The market isn’t going to like this…

During an interview with NPR’s Morning Edition, National Security Advisor John Bolton revealed that he knew in advance that Canadian police were preparing to arrest Huawei CFO Wanzhou Meng, meaning that Bolton knew that Meng was being taken into custody when he sat down alongside President Trump for Saturday’s dinner trade talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Bolton

However, Bolton said he was “unsure” whether Trump was aware of the arrest. We reported last night that Wanzhou was arrested in Canada and will likely be extradited to the US following an investigation into suspected violations of US sanctions against trade with Iran. The arrest is widely believed to be driving Thursday’s selloff, as it will likely throw a wrench in the works of trade talks with China (last night, we noted that Wanzhou’s arrest would be equivalent to China arresting the daughter of Tim Cook or Jeff Bezos).

Steve Inskeep

@NPRinskeep

News: @AmbJohnBolton tells @NPR of the arrest of a Chinese tech exec: “I knew in advance. That is something we get from the Justice Department.” This means Bolton knew, at least in general terms, of the pending action as he joined Trump and Xi for dinner at G20. @MorningEdition

Steve Inskeep

@NPRinskeep

In the @npr talk, @AmbJohnBolton says he doesn’t know if Trump was aware in advance. Bolton declined to name the specific alleged crime by Meng Wonzhou of Huawei, but “Huawei is one company we’ve been concerned about” regarding intellectual property theft and dealing with Iran.

Steve Inskeep

@NPRinskeep

What is the long-term US approach to China? Bolton says he hopes the economic changes the US is demanding during a 90-day negotiation will force some opening of their system. It could “have potentially profound impact on their political structure as well.” @NPR @MorningEdition

Steve Inskeep

@NPRinskeep

“That’s not what we’re aiming at,” Bolton adds, meaning the US is not explicitly trying to make China open its political system. “But if the theory is correct, we’ll see what flows from it.” Web story shortly; hear him on @npratc today; more on @MorningEdition Friday.

Bolton also claimed that the US isn’t “aiming” at pushing for changes in China’s “political structure.” But if changes do result from China opening up its economy…well…that wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing.

end
We now learn the origins of the Huawei investigation: it was HSBC that flagged transactions between Huawei and Iran who sold the country parts mfg in the uSA
For more details see below
(courtesy zerohedge)

HSBC Monitor Flagged ‘Suspicious’ Transactions Involving Huawei

Though US markets have climbed off the lows from Thursday’s session, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Thursday will be another brutal day for US stocks as the arrest of Huawei CFO Wanzhou Meng (of which National Security Advisor John Bolton said he had been aware as he sat down for dinner across from Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday, though he said he didn’t know if President Trump had been informed ahead of time) has threatened to wreck any progress on trade made over the weekend. And less than 24 hours after news of Wanzhou’s arrest first broke (it went unreported for four days), more details surrounding a US investigation into Huawei’s suspected violation of US sanctions on Iran are beginning to emerge.

After reporting in April that US federal prosecutors in Brooklyn had opened an investigation into Huawei over suspected sales to Iranian buyers of products that included American-made components, the Wall Street Journal on Thursday reported that a federally appointed monitor at British bank HSBC had flagged “suspicious” transactions involving Huawei that had been routed through the bank.

Huawei

Consulting firm Exiger, which the bank hired in 2012 as part of a historic settlement (which also included a then-unprecedented $2 billion fine) where HSBC admitted to laundering money for Mexican drug cartels, flagged the transactions to US prosecutors after it raised suspicions about possible sanctions violations. The federally-mandated monitor had been appointed to oversee HSBC’s AML controls, as well as the bank’s monitoring for potential sanctions violations…and apparently the monitor did its job. HSBC isn’t under investigation, WSJnoted. The bank was released from the monitoring agreement last year.

Canadian authorities on Dec. 1 arrested Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver at the request of the U.S. for alleged violations of Iran sanctions, the latest move by Washington against the Chinese cellular-technology giant. The U.S. is seeking Ms. Meng’s extradition so she can appear in federal court in the Eastern District, The Wall Street Journal has reported.

HSBC, one of several banks that did business with Huawei, is cooperating with investigators and isn’t a target in the Huawei probe, some of the people said. The British bank until recently was being formally monitored for its controls meant to catch money laundering and sanctions violations under a 2012 agreement with U.S. prosecutors.

Adding to concerns that Trump knew about Meng’s arrest when he sat down with Xi (something that would likely anger the Chinese leader), Politico reported Thursday that White House officials knew about Meng’s impending arrest ahead of time – though it’s still unclear what President Trump knew when.

Beijing has been outraged by Meng’s arrest. One government spokesman aid Thursday that neither US nor Canadian authorities had clarified their reasoning for arresting Meng. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng said Beijing will ask the US and Canada to release her. Detaining such a prominent executive risks being interpreted as a “direct attack” by Beijing.

“Detaining the person involved with no explicit reason certainly harms her human rights,” Geng said. “In addition, like I said just now, neither the U.S. nor Canada has made any clarification on the reason for the detention so far.”

Analysts are widely saying that whatever the impact of Meng’s arrest on US-China relations might be, it likely won’t be positive.

“Clearly, it will make the relationship worse,” said Bill Reinsch, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Their tendency is to assume anytime something like this happens that there are implications for the relationship – that it was done deliberately and that the whole thing is extralegal and it’s part of US policy.”

Meanwhile, White House officials knew Canada was about to arrest a top executive of the Chinese telecom giant Huawei even as President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met over dinner last weekend in Argentina, National Security Adviser John Bolton told NPR Thursday.

During a Friday press conference, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government had “a few days advanced notice” that the executive would be arrested. He added that the arrest was carried out without political considerations – but ducked a question about why Canada has continued to use Huawei products despite warnings from the US about their susceptibility to infiltration by the Chinese government.

“We are a country of an independent judiciary and the appropriate authorities took the decisions in this case without any political involvement or interference,” he told reporters during a press conference in Montreal. “We were advised by them with a few days’ notice that this was in the works.”

A bail hearing for Meng is set for Friday, said Ian McLeod, a spokesperson for Canada’s Department of Justice. However, as Politico pointed out, extradition requests between Canada and the US are virtually automatic – unless a suspect faces the possibility of the death penalty (which doesn’t apply in Meng’s case).

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Chaos in Gr Britain as May lost 3 procedural votes.  Bloomberg outlines what will happen after the Brexit vote.

(courtesy zerohedge)

What Could Happen After The Brexit Vote?

There was drama in the House of Commons on Monday as Theresa May suffered an extraordinary three parliamentary defeats on key votes.

Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes that the start of the five-day debate on May’s deal was delayed as MPs voted to find the government in contempt of Parliament for failing to publish the legal advice on Brexit in full.

Monday might have just been a warm-up with the big vote on May’s Brexit deal not set to occur until next week. When that does happen, it will have several possible outcomes with all of them considered equally unlikely.

In order to understand the repercussions of the vote being accepted or rejected, Bloomberg put together an overview of the possible scenarios.

The following infographic aims to make sense of the vote and provides an overview of what could happen next week…

Infographic: What could happen after the Brexit vote? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Parliament now has the potential to decide on Britain’s “plan B” if, as expected, it rejects May’s divorce agreement with the European Union in the biggest vote of all next week.

“No longer must the will of Parliament — reflecting the will of the people — be diminished,” Grieve said afterwards.

“Parliament must now take back control and then give the final decision back to the public because, in the end, only the people can sort this out.”

Every possible outcome – May’s deal, an amended deal, no deal, a general election or a second referendum – seems equally unlikely. But as professional Brexit-watcher Anand Menon pointed out recently, even the most implausible of them may happen.

END

FRANCE

My goodness:  France is set to deploy 89,000 cops as they fear a huge yellow vest rebellion on Saturday..and it seems that they are preparing for a coup attempt

(courtesy zerohedge)

France Deploys 89,000 Cops Amid Fears Of Yellow Vest Rebellion On Saturday

French authorities will deploy at least 8,000 riot police and gendarmes in Paris on Saturday, and 89,000 forces across the country according to the Prime Minister, as the Elysee prepares for “act four” of the Yellow Vest movement’s violent protests against the Macron government.

In addition to the closure of the Eiffel Tower on Saturday, several Paris museums have announced that they won’t be open this weekend.

“The demonstrations announced Saturday, December 8 in Paris cannot guarantee the safety of visitors, the Sete has made the decision to close the Eiffel Tower,” announced the Societe de la Tour Eiffel which operates the monument.

Despite Macron’s government delaying a planned fuel hike by six months, the Yellow Vest movement has called on its followers to “stay on our course,” over Facebook and gather for “The Act IV”  on Saturday the 8th, in what will be the fourth week of protests.

Coup attempt?

French intelligence services have reported to the Elysee Palace – the official residence of President Macron, in light of “calls to kill” and “carry arms to attack” government officials, parliamentarians and police, according to Le Figaro. “They are putschists. We are in a coup attempt,” said Le Figaro‘s sources.

On Thursday, Yellow Vest leader Eric Drouet said “Saturday will be the final outcome. Saturday is the Elysee,” adding “we all would like to go to the Elysee.

Le Figaro also reports that Saturday’s demonstrations may involve unprecedented violence, as it may include “a hard core radicalized” element,  from “both the extreme right and extreme left.

Embedded video

Mike Tokes

@MikeTokes

BREAKING: France protests turn violent, as yellow-jacket protesters begin clashing with police.

One thing is becoming abundantly clear, these protests are not about a “gas tax increase.”

They want corrupt globalist Macron to step down.

Four people have died over the last several weeks of protests across France – including an 80-year-old woman who died of shock after a police tear-gas canister was launched into her apartment window as she was trying to close it. Over 400 people were arrested in last weekend’s violent protests, while more than 130 were injured.

Macron’s administration has struggled to calm the protesters – initially delaying a planned fuel tax hike by six months, and then floating a tax increase for the wealthy. Thus far, none of it has worked.

Yellow Vest protesters recently told Russian state-owned RT that the government has lost touch with its people, and that they have to “put humane attitude first, and not the money.” Another protester said that they “would prefer to be at work, than to find [themselves] on the streets shouting, hoping for nothing.”

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia/USA

The USA seems intent on annoying Russia as it prepares to sail a warship into the Black Sea, citing the Kerch Strait incident which was totally the fault of the Ukraine.

(courtesy zerohedge)

U.S. Prepares To Sail Warship Into Black Sea, Citing

Kerch Strait Incident

The potential for major escalation in the Black Sea between the United States and Russia just grew significantly hotter as the US military has formally notified Turkey that it plans to sail a warship into the Black Sea for the first time in a month.

US defense officials have told CNN that the request is specifically in response to Russia’s actions against Ukraine during the Nov. 25 Kerch Strait incident.

USS Forrest Sherman, via US Naval Forces Europe-AfricaAccording to a CNN exclusive Wednesday afternoon:

The US has begun making the necessary preparations to sail a warship into the Black Sea, a move that comes amid heightened tensions in the region following Russia’s seizure of Ukrainian ships and detention of Ukrainian sailors.

The US military has requested that the State Department notify Turkey of its possible plans to sail a warship into the Black Sea, three US officials tell CNN, a move they said is a response to Russia’s actions against Ukraine in the Kerch Strait, which connects the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

The military has made the request as required under the Montreux Convention — the 1936 agreement which gave Turkey control over the Bosporus Straits and the Dardanelles, including authority to regulate the transit of naval warships.

A State Department spokesman told CNN, “the United States carries out its activities consistent with the terms of the Montreux Convention. We will not, however, comment on the nature of our diplomatic correspondence with the Government of Turkey.” There was no early indication whether Turkey granted the passage, which could be interesting given recent closer relations between Ankara and Moscow.

But two among CNN source’s cautioned that giving Turkey notification would merely provide the Navy “the option” of moving a warship into the area, suggesting that no battleships have necessarily yet to be deployed.

A Pentagon naval official sought to downplay the significance of the potential maneuver, saying in a statement: “Our US 6th Fleet is always prepared to respond where called.”

“We routinely conduct operations to advance security and stability throughout the US 6th Fleet area of operations to include the international waters and airspace of the Black Sea,” Cdr. Kyle Raines, a spokesman for the Fleet, told CNN. “We reserve the right to operate freely in accordance with international laws and norms,” he added.

However, Pentagon officials also noted that “Moscow lays claim to areas that far exceed the 12 miles from the Russian coastline that is guaranteed by international law,” according to CNN.

Also on Wednesday Russia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced it conducted a military drill in eastern Crimea involving Russian troops and Pantsir anti-aircraft missile systems.

And elsewhere tensions grew in the Sea of Japan, as on Wednesday a US Navy warship passed through waters claimed by Russia. According to FOX:

A U.S. Navy warship sailed in waters claimed by Russia in the Sea of Japan on Wednesday as tensions increase over the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from a decades-old arms control treaty.

A spokesperson for the U.S. Pacific Fleet says the guided-missile destroyer USS McCampbell sailed “in the vicinity of” Peter the Great Bay, a body of water off the Russian port city of Vladivostok, “to challenge Russia’s excessive maritime claims and uphold the rights, freedoms and lawful uses of the sea enjoyed by the United States and other nations.”

Of course, Russia will view any provocative action in the Black Sea as an even greater threat in its backyard at a moment tensions are soaring.

Russia has over the past week signaled a build-up of forces in Crimea, including the transfer of more S-400 anti-air defense systems. Should American warships enter the area, along with a British surveillance ship already deployed, it could be a recipe for WWIII.

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

end

 

7  OIL ISSUES

Oil crashes after the Saudis propose a smaller than expected production cut, honouring Trump

(courtesy zerohedge)

Oil Crashes After Saudis Propose Smaller Than

Expected Production Cut

As if plunging equity futures were not enough for traders to worry about this morning, in the past two hours oil, which had rebounded heading into this week’s 2-day OPEC meeting, tumbled sharply, dropping as much as 5%, with WTI sliding as low as $50.23 – less than a dollar from this year’s low of $49.41 – from above $53/barrel earlier in the session as Saudi Arabia said producers were working towards a deal to cut output that could fall short of market expectations. Brent crude fell 4.2% to $58.99 a barrel.

Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih told reporters ahead of today’s critical closed-door meeting of oil ministers in Vienna that OPEC and allies outside of the cartel including Russia were still working towards reaching an agreement by Friday.

Falih said Saudi Arabia’s preference was for a “sufficient cut but not overly large”, adding that a 1 million barrels a day “would be adequate”, but noting that “there is no deal yet.” He may have been remembering Trump’s tweet from yesterday, and realizing that if the US president gets angry with his boss, and de facto real OPEC leader, Crown Prince MbS, things could get much worse.

The kingdom also called for contributions from all countries, saying that the deal should be “fair and equitable” and should include Russia, as well as countries that were exempt from previous deals, such as Libya and Nigeria.

Quoted by the FT, when asked if a pact might not be reached, he said all options were on the table, but added that Russia, the largest oil producer in OPEC+ but slightly behind the US, and seen as crucial to reaching a deal, had “made a promise” to cut.

Oil has crashed more than 30% since its October peak as the US issued sanctions waivers to big buyers of Iranian oil, while production from global producers surged. The planned output cuts come despite pressure from US president Donald Trump, who has advocated for high levels of production, describing lower oil prices as a “tax cut” for consumers.

So what would be needed to stop the latest oil rout? According to energy analysts on Wall Street, any cut less than 1mmb/d will likely not help oil much, to wit (via Bloomberg): OPEC+ would need to cut by 1.5m b/d for crude to rise to $70 a barrel, according to Rystad. Saudi Arabia needs to pledge a reduction in supply of more than 500k b/d, Petromatrix says, while Saxo Bank says prices could fall if curbs don’t exceed the 1m b/d level.

Rystad

  • OPEC+ needs 1.5m b/d output cut for crude to rise to $70/bbl
  • “A cut announcement that effectively removes anything less than 1 million b/d of 2019 supply would be interpreted negatively by the market”
  • OPEC+ would need to cut by almost 2m b/d to give the market a bullish surprise

Petromatrix

  • Saudi Arabia needs to agree to a cut in supply of more than 500k b/d to be meaningful
  • Decision could be seen mostly as a “packaging effort” if Saudis don’t cut by more than 500k b/d
  • “A total cut of about 1 million b/d, with a cut of 0.5 million b/d for Saudi Arabia would not be much different than what is already priced in the physical market”

Saxo Bank

  • OPEC and Russia must cut more than 1m b/d to avoid crude prices falling
  • “The current sentiment in the market is so poor that any disappointment could send oil sharply lower”
  • The U.S.-China “trade war ceasefire seems to have been broken already and that raises some questions about demand”

CIBC

  • OPEC+ cut of 1.5M b/d could push crude into backwardation
  • Present contango reflects oversupply to end of 2019
  • Cut of 1m b/d would fall short of balancing global oil markets

B. Riley FBR

  • Expectations are for a cut of 1m-1.3m b/d
  • If daily output is only curbed by 750k b/d or less, the market will “come down”

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1347 DOWN .0002 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.80  DOWN 0.249 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2749 UP   0.0026  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3420  UP .0057 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 2 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1355/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 44.62 POINTS OR 1.68%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 663.30 POINTS OR 2.47%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.22% /EUROPEAN BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE RED 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED  DOWN 417,71 POINTS OR 1.91%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 663.30 POINTS OR 2/47% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 44.62  POINTS OR 1.68%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  0.22%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 417,71 POINTS OR 1.91%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1236.25

silver:$14.36

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.89% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.15 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.03 DOWN 4  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.81% UP 2    in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.06%  DOWN 1  BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.46% DOWN 0  IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.20 UP 14     POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 173 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.24%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.96% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1383 UP .0085 or 35 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.50 DOWN  0 .541 OR 54 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2787 UP .0063( POUND UP 63 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 32 basis points to 1.3395

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.8827-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8866(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.3275

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.06%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.86 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.12 DOWN 5 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.20 DOWN 37 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 217.79 POINTS OR 3.15%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 389.26POINTS  OR 3.48%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 163.91 POINTS OR 3.32%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 247.20 POINTS OR 2.75%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 684.87 POINTS OR 03.54%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 51.24 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 59.41 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.89  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .37 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER by 37 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.3275 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :51/71

 

BRENT:60.25

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.89%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.16%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1381 ( UP 32 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.67 down .367 (YEN UP 37 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.73 DOWN 34 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2783 UP 59 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3415

the Russian rouble:  66.96 DOWN .44 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 44 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3378 DOWN 15 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8827  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8786 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.24%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 79.40 POINTS OR .32%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 29.43 POINTS OR .42%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.96 CLOSED UP .22 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.766%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/BIG RISE TODAY

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Plunge Protection Team Saves Stocks But Credit, Crude, Cryptos Collapse

800 Dow points – !!!! Remain calm! No wonder The PPT was called in…

..

*  *  *

 

*  *  *

But, but, but… the US economy is extremely strong (ignore the 4.4% crash in durable goods orders and collapse in housing), this weakness in stocks (remember the stock market is not the economy – when the former goes down) is all exogenous – blame them!:

Blame China – Huawei exec arrested at a particularly inopportune time for the trade truce

Blame Russia – Not acquiescing to OPEC’s or Trump’s demands to cut crude production

Blame Britain – Just get it done Theresa!! Forget what the people want!

Blame Italy – Why don’t the democratically-elected leaders just fold, slash their deficits, and maintain their nation’s march into oblivion?

But definitely don’t blame The Fed for tightening financial conditions into a slowdown (as they desperately tried to keep the delusional shell game of “well they wouldn’t be hiking rates if everything wasn’t awesome”).

 

China stocks did not like US arrest of Huawei exec…

 

And while initially slow on the uptake, Offshore yuan tumbled too…

 

Europe was a bloodbath…

DAX tumbled back below 11,000 – its lowest in two years (erasing the post-Trump gains)…

And Italian bond yields surged…

 

US Equities crashed at the re-open (after the Bush funeral holiday) last night and saw no bid at the cash market open… but once Europe closed, algos went vertical… and reaccelerated into the close… (from Tuesday’s cash close)

 

Stocks ended well “Off The Lows” thanks to a well-placed WSJ article suggesting The Fed could hold in December.

A 1600 points swing in Dow futures

Nasdaq was the only index which manage to get green however…

Did not hear many people screaming about the algos panic-buying stocks into the close?

S&P and Dow ramped back into the green for 2018…

 

And the moment Europe closed a short-squeeze was engineered…”Most Shorted” stocks surged…

 

Be careful getting to excited – relative volume crashed as stocks soared – not the kind of ramp to support follow-through.

 

FANG Stocks opened down large but were bid aggressively into the green…

 

S&P Financials plunged to its lowest since Sept 2017…

 

The S&P 500’s Put/Call ratio has plunged to 2018 lows…

 

52 week lows are surging as it seems the Hindenburg Omen that hit in September was quite prophetic this time…

 

The VIX Term Structure inverted once again…

 

As equity protection (VIX) played catch up to credit protection (IG/HY CDX)…as IG spreads blow out to new cycle wides…

 

Stocks caught down to bonds reality once again…

 

Treasury yields tumbled once again – down around 4bps across the curve…

 

10Y Yield broke down to 2.82% intraday

 

Back to its lowest since August…

 

The yield curve remains inverted from 2s to 5s..

 

10Y Inflation Breakevens (following crude’s collapse) fell to their lowest since Dec 2017…

 

The Dollar did its usual trend reversal intraday – this time from positive to negative…

 

 

Cryptos dumped further with Bitcoin Cash now crashing 33% on the week!!

 

PMs remain positive on the week but crude and copper have dumped…

 

 

WTI closed lower but oscillate around the $50/51 level all day as OPEC headlines jockeyed with inventory data…

 

Gold tagged $1250 intraday – highest since October 28th…

 

Notably Silver is back a key level of support relative to gold (85x ratio)…

 

Finally, during tonight’s business channel infomercials… expect to hear this…

But maybe – in the back of your mind – remember this – The market has entirely given up on The Fed’s rate-hike trajectory (half a hike in 2019, and a rate cut in 2020) suggesting serious economic trouble ahead…

So, to be clear, the market spikes higher on an engineered short-squeeze at the EU close and a well-timed WSJ report that the Fed is turning dovish BUT the market has already priced in less than 1 rate hike in 2019.

 

end

 

 

market trading

Last night:

 

S&P, Dow Plunge Into Red For 2018

No panic BTFD at the US cash open? It’s different this time…

Dow is testing new lows (down 500)

Testing towards October lows…

Pushing markets into the red for the year…

S&P and Dow join Trannies and Small Cap sin the red for the year and Nasdaq is sliding fast.

end

This morning:

It’s Not Just Stocks That Are Tumbling…

Treasury yields are extending their recent collapse with 10Y blowing through 2.90% to its lowest yield since August (and pressuring critical support for the bond bears)…

 

The near-record spec short in bonds is really starting to worry…

 

And if stocks are right – treasury yields have a long way to fall!!

end
This afternoon:

Dow Crashes To October Lows As Traders Price In End Of Fed Tightening

From the euphoric 26,088 highs on Sunday night, Dow futures are down over 1700 points… (and down 800 today!!)

Crashing back to October’s lows…

Stocks have caught down to bond bears capitulation…

Massive waves of sell programs are hitting…

 

As Fed policy expectations are destroyed by the market…

Expectations are now for just 12bps (half a ‘normal’ rate hike) in 2019 and a 10bps rate cut in 2020!!

And all of this on double the average S&P day’s volume…

end
THIS AFTERNOON:
 the market is pricing in the Dec 2018 yield rise by the Fed but only 1 rise in 2019 and that is only 10 basis points.
(courtesy zerohedge)

4-Week Bills Yield Same As 3-Month Bills With March Rate Hike Now “Priced Out”

Something notable took place during today’s auction of $40 billion in 4-Week Treasury bills: the yield at which they sold, which came at 2.365%, was the same yield as the 3-Month Bills issued just three days ago, on Monday, Dec 3, confirming that the market is starting to price out an expectation for a hike during the March meeting.

In addition to today’s sale of 4-Week Bills, the Treasury also sold 8-Week bills at a yield of 2.39%, as yields pushed higher across the front-end of the curve.

According to Jefferies economist Thomas Simons, Four-week yields are rising “as we get close to the December meeting,” while “the March Fed meeting is being priced out of Treasury-bill yields.”

“The majority of the life of both of these bills will be in between the December meeting and the March meeting so the rates should be the same.”

As we showed earlier, as a result of today’s market rout, traders are now pricing in just 12 bps, or less than one full rate hike, in 2019, and roughly 10 basis point of rate cuts in 2020, when the Fed is expected to resume easing as the economy is widely expected to have entered a recession by then.

Another place to watch the collapse of the Fed’s credibility, and dot plot implied forecasting skills, is the collapse in 5 and 10 Year breakeven rates, which are plunging today – largely on the back of the drop in oil – and dragging Treasury yields to levels not seen since the late summer. Here a bigger problem for the Fed is that with the five-year inflation rate expectation dropping to just 1.70%…

… the Fed may be cornered as any hopes of inflating away the debt are fading with inflation expectations once again getting “unanchored” this time to the downside, leaving Powell with just one option: to once again start monetizing the deficit, i.e. prepare for QE4 some time in late 2019 or early 2020.

 

market data/

With Trump putting on huge tariffs with China, it seems that it did not help as the uSA recorded another huge trade deficit, the worst in a decade at 55.5 billion dollars. Exports well and imports rose.and the deficit with China rose to 43 billion dollars.  Not only that but the trade deficit ex petroleum rose to a new record.  Next month’s reading will be worse than this month as petroleum plummeted.

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump’s Trade Deficit Tumbles To Worst In A Decade As China Gap Hits Record High

While the stock market has been suggested as the measure of Trump’s success (by his own team), one look at the US goods trade balance (cough deficit cough) and you would not be wrong in questioning his administration’s success (for now).

The US good trade deficit was $55.5 billion in October (worse than the $55.0 billion expected and well down from the $54.6 billion revised print for September). This is the biggest US deficit since October 2008, underscoring continued fallout from the trade dispute with China. The goods trade gap with China widened to a record.

Perhaps even more worrying is the collapse in theUS trade balance ex-petroleum to a new record high deficit...

What’s going to happen as the oil price plunge filters into this data from November?

As Bloomberg notes, Net exports may again weigh on growth in the fourth quarter — albeit less than in the prior three months — amid a strong dollar and continued uncertainty over trade policy. Data are likely to remain volatile, reflecting a rush of activity ahead of U.S. threats to further raise levies, and a subsequent unwinding of that effect should Beijing restart some imports.
Overall exports came in at $211 billion after $211.4 billion the prior month. That included record shipments of petroleum, industrial materials and consumer goods.

Imports rose 0.2 percent to $266.5 billion from $265.9 billion, reflecting record purchases of autos and consumer goods. The overall merchandise-trade deficit was also the highest ever.

The wider trade gap comes at the start of a quarter in which the economy already is projected to moderate, after posting the best back-to-back growth since 2014. The negative fallout may be smaller compared to the third quarter, when the drag from net exports matched the worst since 1984.

The report showed the unadjusted goods-trade gap with China, the world’s second-biggest economy, widened to $43.1 billion in October from $40.2 billion – a record high…

Is this pre-emptive tariff buying? Or is Trump really losing this badly?

end
The normally bullish ADP employment report disappoints the street as they state that job growth as likely peaked
(courtesy  ADP report/zerohedge)

ADP Employment Disappoints: “Job Growth Has Likely Peaked”

With initial jobless claims breaking their positive trend, ADP (and tomorrow’s BLS data) are left to confirm the “strong economy” narrative with their linearly extrapolated jobs growth trends.

After beating expectations in 4 of the last 5 months, November saw ADP employment additions disappoint notably(+179k vs +195k exp)…

With large employers (1000+) shedding jobs for the first time since April 2017…

“Although the labor market performed well, job growth decelerated slightly,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

Midsized businesses added nearly 70 percent of all jobs this month. This growth points to the midsized businesses’ ability to provide stronger wages and benefits. It also suggests they could be more insulated from the global challenges large enterprises face.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is strong, but has likely peaked. This month’s report is free of significant weather effects and suggests slowing underlying job creation. With very tight labor markets, and record unfilled positions, businesses will have an increasingly tough time adding to payrolls.”

Under the covers, the most notable item is the drop in large employer employment…

The noise between ADP and Payrolls continues with last month seeing a small miss by ADP relative to the BLS data…

 

Finally we note that the extremely linear trend of the ADP total seems to be in question from the accelerating uptick in initial jobless claims…

Which do you trust? The higher frequency claims data or the seemingly linear long-term magical trend of the ADP data?

end
For the past few weeks we have noticed that the initial jobless claims are hovering at 6 month highs.  Today it was led by Pennsylvania, at the heart of the rust belt employment sector
(courtesy zerohedge)

Initial Jobless Claims Hovers At 6-Month Highs Led By Pennsylvania

Initial jobless claims fell very modestly week-over-week (off revised data) but missed expectations at 231k (vs 225k exp).

Smoothed over 4 weeks, initial jobless claims are at their highest in 6 months…

States with the greatest movement in claims (data as of Nov. 24 – lagged by one week):

  • Increases in claims: Pennsylvania 3,544; Wisconsin 2,119; Massachusetts 1,224
  • Decreases in claims: Texas 5,480; California 4,245; Florida 2,081

On the brighter side, continuing claims fell dramatically after 3 weeks of rising…

 

Piling on the disappointment, Challenger, Gray & Christmas announced 53,073 job cuts in November (494,775 year to date) – the most for any November since 2012.

Retail continues to lead all sectors in year-to-date job cut announcements with 96,504, and Telecommunications companies follow with 59,518, while financial firms have announced 41,351 cuts this year.

For October and November together, layoffs totaled 128,717 in 2018, the most for the two months combined since 2008.

 

 

 

Initial claims are certainly flashing a warning for aggregate employment (as noted by ADP’s disappointment this morning and Zandi’s comment that “job growth has likely peaked.”)…

Will a weak payrolls tomorrow cement the dovish Fed’s position? (and prove Trump right), or are they set on hiking no matter what they say.

end

Yesterday we again received a phony ISM report that manufacturing was rising.  However Markit reported on dismal findings. Today, identical results with the USA service sector

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Services Sector Dips On Weak Employment (Or Surges Back Near Record Highs)

Following Manufacturing PMI’s drop, US Services PMI dipped modestly (though beat expectations). However, under the covers is a big problem as ’employment’ plunged to its lowest reading since June 2017

Additionally, from Markit, is the fact that November saw the weakest rise in composite new orders in 13 months.

And then there is ISM’s data – which for Manufacturing was 180 degrees from Markit’s.

ISM Manufacturing upticked in November, and so did ISM Services!

So there you have it America – Markit says Manufacturing and Services dropped, ISM says they rebounded to near-record highs

WTF!!

The non-manufacturing index rose to 60.7, an Institute for Supply Management survey showed Thursday. That compared with estimates for a decline to 59. The advance was led by business activity and new orders, while a gauge of inventories rose for a third month.

So ISM sees new orders rising but Markit sees it plunge?

However, ISM’s report also indicated that continuing trade tensions and easing global growth are affecting service providers, a trend weighing on investors’ perceptions of the economic outlook. Export orders decelerated by the most since May while a measure of imports rose the most since March.

Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“… and continuing to add jobs in impressive numbers. Although some cooling in the rate of job creation was seen in November, the surveys are still pointing to payrolls growing at monthly rate of around 185,000.

“The surveys therefore add to evidence that the domestic economy remains in good health, generating balanced growth across both manufacturing and services and increasingly outperforming other major economies.

“However, while new business growth remained encouragingly resilient, it has eased to the lowest in over a year as demand showed some signs of softening, linked partly to growing concerns over trade wars, slower global demand growth, rising political uncertainty and tighter financial conditions. Such concerns have also dampened business expectations about the year ahead, adding to signs that growth may have peaked, though any slowing in growth looks likely to be only modest.”

And finally, Williamson notes that

“The PMI surveys paint a picture of an economy growing at a solid annual rate of 2.5% so far in the fourth quarter…”

Take your pick America!

end

Hard data, USA factory orders confirm the Markit manufacturing report of yesterday refuting the ISM

report. The report shows factory orders tumbled the most in 15 months

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

US Factory Orders Tumble Most In 15 Months

But, but, but…. ISM Manufacturing jumped?!!

US Factory orders tumbled in October – dropping 2.1% MoM (worse than expected), the biggest drop since July 2017…

Worse still, September’s data was downwardly revised to just +0.2%.

Furthermore the final durable goods orders data dropped 4.3% MoM (much worse than the 2.4% drop expected)…

All of which is sending warnings about the US economy…

“Capex is the No. 1 story,” said David Woo, head of global rates and foreign exchange strategy at Bank of America Corp. “There are hundreds of data points coming out every month but that’s the one that I watch,” and bond traders should too.

Is this the same US economy that has “never been better”? That The Fed was so exuberant about just a month ago?

 

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

The USA beige book confirms that the USA economy is slowing

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Fed’s Beige Book Confirms US Economy Is Slowing

Ever since April, the otherwise drab and colorless Fed Beige Book, was notable for one specific trend: a rising frequency of the word “tariff” with every subsequent report, confirming that in addition to the usual concerns businesses voiced to the regional Fed such as labor and prices, one of the growing worries amid local companies was the impact of trade war on future business. And, as we noted last month, with the Trump-Xi summit fast approaching, the Beige Book confirmed that with no less than 51 mentions of the word “tariff”, most companies were on edge over future trade prospects.

  • March Beige Book instances of word “tariff”: 0
  • April Beige Book instances of word “tariff”: 36
  • May Beige Book instances of word “tariff”: 22
  • July Beige Book instances of word “tariff”: 31
  • September Beige Book instances of word “tariff”: 41
  • October Beige Book instances of word “tariff”: 51

Today, the December Beige Book was released, and in a notable development, we saw the first decline in mentions of “tariffs” since May, with the word used “only” 39 times, a steep drop from October’s 51.

And while superficially this may be taken as a good sign, another, perhaps more ominous trend has emerged.

But first, a quick glimpse at what else today’s Beige Book revealed: a casual glance of the summary page revealed few surprises. Indeed, according to the Federeal Reserve, most regions reported growth at an overall modest to moderate pace, and while the overall near-term growth outlook remained positive, some contacts cited tariffs, rising interest rates, and labor market constraints as reasons for waning optimism. Employment growth slowed, partly because of labor shortages from increasingly tight labor markets. A majority of Districts noted capacity constraints due to difficulty in attracting and retaining workers.

In further good news for workers and wage growth,the Beige Book noted that “wage growth tended to the higher side of modest to moderate”, even as employment gains ebbed “due in part to worker shortages” while most disticts had examples of boosts in nonwage benefits.” Overall, this is a welcome development for American workers, if not so much for markets, which are on edge ahead of Friday’s report on average hourly earnings, which – if this report is any indication – may print above the 3.1% Y/Y consensus and spark more concerns that the Fed will have no choice but to remain hawkish.

In a potentially troubling development for markets – and those keeping tabs on wage inflation – most Districts noted wage growth had increased, and prices rose at a modest pace overall. There were widespread reports of input price pressures, with some Districts noting tariffs had lifted prices. Still, while October cited “modest to moderate” price rises, in December this was downgraded to just “modest.”

Making matters worse, the Fed noted that while price growth was modest, input costs rose faster than final goods prices, which is another way of saying “margin compression”, and yet another confirmation that peak profits may have indeed arrived. Not surprisingly, businesses once again were quick to blame tariffs for margin compression, with the Beige citing spreading reports of “tariff induced cost increases”, and that “tariffs remained a concern for manufacturers”, while “optimism waned in some disticts on tariffs, rates and labor.”

But the most concerning news was the all too clear notice by the Fed that the economy itself may have peaked, with the report explicitly pointing out that Dallas and Philadelphia reported “slower growth.”

Meanwhile, as noted above, while the use of the word “tariff” may have declined for the first time in half a year, another word took its place: as shown in the chart below, the word “slow” and its variants appeared on 43 different occasions, a notable increase from 37 in October and 25 in September, which is the range it had been for most of 2018.

This rather clear hint from the Fed, or at least the various regional Fed constituent firms, that growth is moderating is not surprising, given that the economy is growing above trend and a slower expansion is embedded in the Fed’s forecasts. But, as Bloomberg’s Ye Xie notes, the report points to a clear late cycle market in 2019, one marked by lower risk-adjusted returns and much higher volatility (as BofA warned in its year-ahead preview yesterday).

* * *

Finally, there were the usual memorable anecdotes from the various regional Feds, of which the Chicago district was perhaps most remarkable, as “a number of contacts said that they had been “ghosted,” a situation in which a worker stops coming to work without notice and then is impossible to contact.” We observed the rise of this phenomenon back in July in “‘Ghosting’ On The Rise As Workers Blow Off Interviews

Here are the other anecdotes (source: Bloomberg):

  • Boston: Massachusetts restaurants continued to note acute labor shortages and higher labor costs, citing the Commonwealth’s recently implemented Employer Medical Assistance Contribution (EMAC) and scheduled hikes in the minimum wage
  • New York: A couple contacts lost existing and prospective skilled workers due to immigration restrictions, including H-1B visas not being renewed.
  • Philadelphia: One staffing firm noted that its roster of qualified job candidates is essentially tapped out — it has become very difficult to find qualified applicants to replenish its candidate pool.
  • Cleveland: Some concern that seasonal patterns may be unusual this year as firms try to import goods before additional tariffs on Chinese goods take effect on January 1
  • Richmond: A cabinet manufacturer reported an uptick in business in recent weeks, as customers rushed orders in anticipation of higher tariffs in the new year.
  • Atlanta: Several contacts pointed out that overall compensation costs were expected to increase at a slightly faster pace in 2019
  • Chicago: A number of contacts said that they had been “ghosted,” a situation in which a worker stops coming to work without notice and then is impossible to contact.
  • St. Louis: Local contacts note that barge activity has increased due to the large number of storage barges for soybeans affected by recent tariffs.
  • Minneapolis: A tight labor market for high-tech skills in Minneapolis-St. Paul has led to double-digit wage increases for some information technology and other STEM positions over the past 12 months.
  • Kansas City: International geopolitical discussions surrounding waning OPEC production and U.S. sanctions on Saudi Arabia may affect District energy prices and production expectations moving forward.
  • Dallas: A manufacturing equipment supplier reported frequently raising wages to prevent its employees from being poached by other firms, and one contact noted high employee turnover despite paying their groundskeepers $20 an hour.
  • San Francisco: Drier-than-usual conditions in parts of California lowered yields for select crops, like nuts and tomatoes, but contacts noted that inventories were at an adequate level to meet demand.
end
Seems that the Fed does not believe our crooked friends over at Wells Fargo on the reform plan to limit illegal behaviour
(courtesy zerohedge)

Fed Rejects Wells Fargo’s Oversight Reform Plan; Asset Freeze Will Remain In Place

end

the following commentary from Dave Kranzler is a must read.  Here he correctly describes the dilemma facing the Fed and the USA.  You will note that the trade deficits are rising instead of falling.  This is because of Trump’s trade wars which has caused the dollar to rise and thus gold to fall.  If Trump wants to win the trade wars he must let the dollar fall and fall big time and that will cause gold to rise.

(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)

Trump’s Trade War Dilemma And Gold

If the “risk on/risk off” stock market meme was absurd, its derivative – the “trade war on/trade war off” meme – is idiotic.  Over the last several weeks, the stock market has gyrated around media sound bytes, typically dropped by Trump,  Larry Kudlow or China,  which are suggestive of the degree to which Trump and China are willing to negotiate a trade war settlement.

Please do not make the mistake of believing that the fate the of the stock market hinges on whether or not Trump and China reach some type of trade deal.  The “trade war” is a “symptom” of an insanely overvalued stock market resting on a foundation of collapsing economic and financial fundamentals.  The trade war is the stock market’s “assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand.”

Trump’s Dilemma – The dollar index has been rising since Trump began his war on trade. But right now it’s at the same 97 index level as when Trump was elected. Recall that Trump’s administration pushed down the dollar from 97 to 88 to stimulate exports. After Trump was elected, gold was pushed down to $1160. It then ran to as high as $1360 – a key technical breakout level – by late April. In the meantime, since Trump’s trade war began, the U.S. trade deficit has soared to a record level.

If Trump wants to “win” the trade war, he needs to push the dollar a lot lower. This in turn will send the price of gold soaring. This means that the western Central Banks/BIS will have to live with a rising price gold, something I’m not sure they’re prepared accept – especially considering the massive paper derivative short position in gold held by the large bullion banks.  This could set up an interesting behind-the-scenes clash between Trump and the western banking elitists.

I’ve labeled this, “Trump’s Dilemma.” As anyone who has ever taken a basic college level economics course knows, the Law of Economics imposes trade-offs on the decision-making process (remember the “guns and butter” example?). The dilemma here is either a rising trade deficit for the foreseeable future or a much higher price of gold. Ultimately, the U.S. debt problem will unavoidably pull the plug on the dollar.  Ray Dalio believes it’s a “within 2 years” issue. I believe it’s a “within 12 months” issue.

Irrespective of the trade war, the dollar index level, interest rates and the price of gold,  the stock market is headed much lower.   This is because, notwithstanding the incessant propaganda which purports a “booming economy,” the economy is starting to collapse. The housing stocks foreshadow this, just like they did in 2005-2006:

The symmetry in the homebuilder stocks between mid-2005 to mid-2006 and now is stunning as is the symmetry in the nature of the underlying systemic economic and financial problems percolating – only this time it’s worse…

**********

The commentary above is a “derivative” of the type of analysis that precedes the presentation of investment and trade ideas in the Mining Stock and Short Seller’s Journals. To find out more about these newsletters, follow these links:  Short Seller’s Journal  information and more about the Mining Stock Journal here:   Mining Stock Journal information.

***

END

Seems like a well placed article to juice to stock market

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Blast Higher On WSJ Report Fed May Signal “Wait And See” Approach

After tumbling as low as 800 points, the Dow Jones jumped to session highs just after 3:30pm, pulling the S&P with it and blasting the NASDAQ into the green, as a WSJ story quickly made the rounds across trading desks which was centered on the same dovish line first introduced by Powell last week, namely that the Fed is considering whether to signal a new wait-and-see mentality after a hiking rates in December, which could slow down the pace of rate increases next year.

How this is bullish for a market which already prices in less than one rate hike in 2019 is unclear, but it provided enough of an upward momentum boost to send the Dow to -150 and still rising.

So how will the Fed telegraph that its dot plot has been abysmally wrong?

As the WSJ explains, officials still think the broad direction of short-term interest rates will be higher in 2019, according to recent interviews and public statements. But as they push up their benchmark, they are becoming less sure how fast they will need to act or how far they will need to go and want to assess how the economy is holding up under moves they’ve already made.

How they manage this new, less-predictable approach will depend in large part on the performance of the economy and markets in the weeks ahead.

Under the evolving “data dependent” strategy, the Fed could step back from the predictable path of quarterly hikes it’s been on for most of the past two years, raising the possibility it might delay rate increases at some upcoming meetings, according to recent interviews and statements.

The WSJ also adds that under the old pattern, the Fed would raise rates again in March, but officials now don’t know when their next rate move will be after December. The reason for this is largely the market, even though as the WSJ reports, recent turbulence hasn’t much dented the Fed’s view that the U.S. economy is on solid footing, with growth strong and unemployment low.

But inflation has softened in recent months and falling oil prices portend further declines, reducing the Fed’s sense of urgency about raising rates to prevent the economy from overheating

On the other hand, “growth or inflation heats up unexpectedly, the Fed could decide to go further than planned.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell compared the Fed’s policy strategy to walking into a living room when the lights suddenly go out.

“What do you do? You slow down and you maybe go a little bit less quickly, and you feel your way more,” he said in a speech last week. “So under uncertainty of this kind, you be careful.”

Of course, if this is correct, and if the Fed is considering a pause after Dec. 19, the word “gradual” would needs to be thrown out from the FOMC statement, something which appears unlikely with virtually zero advance preparation by the Fed. It would also mean that the Fed can and should officially burn its mockery of a “dot plot” once and for all.

Finally, there is Trump, whose input into this process is certainly relevant, and since the President will do anything to push the market higher at any cost, one almost wonders if the new “Fed whisperer” at the WSJ, Nick Timiraos who has replaced Jon Hilsenrath, is conveing messages from the Marriner Eccles building, or wishful thinking from the White House.

For now, however, whether it was Trump’s or Powell’s intention to send the market surging courtesy of the well-timed 3:30pm WSJ stick save, the plan has worked.

END

Trump has made a good choice in former USA attorney general William Barr to replace Jeff Sessions and Matt Whittaker. He should be easily confirmed

(courtesy zerohedge)

Former Attorney General And Ex-CIA Employee Top Trump Pick To Replace Sessions

Former US Attorney General William Barr is President Trump’s leading candidate to replace former AG Jeff Sessions as head of the Justice Department – a choice which may come within days according to the Washington Post.

If nominated, Barr would take over the Mueller Russia investigation for acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker, who has been in the position since Sessions’ ouster on November 7.

Barr was noted as “an outstanding choice” by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who is likely to lead the Judiciary Committee next year where he would oversee Barr’s confirmation. “I think he could get confirmed very easily,” Graham added.

Senator John Cornyn of Texas – the #2 Republican in the Senate, agreed. “He’s the kind of person who could get confirmed. I think it’s going to be challenging in any event.”

Barr, who served as AG from 1991 to 1993 under President George H.W. Bush, directed the investigation of the Pan Am Lockerbie bombing, and led counter-terrorism efforts under the first Gulf War according to his biography at law firm Kirkland Ellis, reports Bloomberg. He also served as general counsel and executive Vice President at Verizon from 2000 to 2008, and was with the CIA from 1973 to 1977.

From 1989 to 1991 he was a political appointee at the Justice Department before assuming the top position within the agency.

George Terwilliger, who served as the No. 2 official in the Justice Department when Barr was attorney general, said Barr would bring “40 years of high level experience, both in government and in business, which gives him a perspective that fits many of this administration’s priorities.”

“I have no way of knowing if the report that he’s a leading candidate is accurate, but if he was, because of both his government and corporate background, he would enjoy widespread support — both in and outside the legal community,” Terwilliger said. –WaPo

While Barr won’t suffer the same criticisms Democrats have levied at Whitaker – who has openly criticized the legitimacy of the Mueller probe, Barr has dinged the special counsel’s office for hiring attorneys who have contributed to Hillary Clinton. 

“In my view, prosecutors who make political contributions are identifying fairly strongly with a political party,” Barr said in a July statement to the Washington Post. “I would have liked to see him have more balance on this group.”

That said, Democrats may be waiting a while before Whitaker is no longer in charge of the Mueller investigation.

Even if Barr were announced as the president’s choice this week, it could take months for a confirmation vote, given the congressional schedule. In the meantime, acting attorney general Matthew G. Whitaker would still serve as head of the Justice Department — a decision that has angered Democrats who question both his résumé and the legal justification for his ascension to that job, given that he was not serving in a Senate-confirmed position when Trump selected him as the temporary successor to Jeff Sessions, whom Trump forced out in early November after the midterm elections. –WaPo

And while Barr defended former FBI Director James Comey’s decision to publicly announce the re-opening of the Hillary Clinton email investigation right before the 2016 election, he has also said that Trump was right to fire Comey and former Acting Attorney General Sally Yates.

Barr’s daughter, Mary Daly, is a senior official within the Justice Department and oversees the agency’s efforts to combat opioid abuse and addiction

 end

SWAMP STORIES

Trump continues on the warpath criticizing Mueller with his phony “witch hunt”

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Says Approval Rating Would Be 50% Higher

Without Mueller’s ‘Presidential Harassment’

As he does most mornings now, President Trump criticized Special Counsel Robert Mueller and his Russia collusion probe ‘witch hut’ in a tweet Thursday morning. Implying that Mueller has continued his probe for purely political reasons, Trump claimed that his approval rating would be 50% higher without Mueller (this despite the fact polls have shown that almost nobody is paying attention to Mueller any more).

Trump accused Mueller of “Presidential Harassment”, and suggested his approval rating would be 75%, instead of 50%, if Mueller’s Russia probe wasn’t distracting from the Trump administration’s many accomplishments (including tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks and higher military spending).

“Without the phony Russia Witch Hunt, and with all that we have accomplished in the last almost two years (Tax & Regulation Cuts, Judge’s, Military, Vets, etc.) my approval rating would be at 75% rather than the 50% just reported by Rasmussen. It’s called Presidential Harassment!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Without the phony Russia Witch Hunt, and with all that we have accomplished in the last almost two years (Tax & Regulation Cuts, Judge’s, Military, Vets, etc.) my approval rating would be at 75% rather than the 50% just reported by Rasmussen. It’s called Presidential Harassment!

 

 

Trump stepped up his attacks on Mueller in the days before Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to charges of lying to Congress in exchange for agreeing to cooperate in Mueller’s probe.

 

end
There has been a string of emails uncovered which state categorically that the FBI knew the Steele Dossier was bogus and that it was used fraudulently in obtaining a FISA warrant which allowed the authorities to surveil Carter Page and others.  The FISA documents state that in essence Carter Page was a Russian spy..something which he was not.  No wonder Comey does not want to speak in private..if in public he can claim this is classified.
a must read..
(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI Knew Steele Dossier Was Bogus Before Using In FISA Application: Solomon

A string of emails quietly requested by House Republicans for declassification by President Trump may be the smoking gun that the FBI and DOJ committed egregious abuses of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), according to The Hill‘s John Solomon. 

The email exchanges – kept from Congressional investigators for over two years, “included then-FBI Director James Comey, key FBI investigators in the Russia probe and lawyers in the DOJ’s national security division,” according to the report – and took place in early to mid-October of 2016, prior to the FBI successfully securing a FISA warrant to spy on Trump campaign adviser Carter Page. 

The email exchanges show the FBI was aware — before it secured the now-infamous warrant — that there were intelligence community concerns about the reliability of the main evidence used to support it: the Christopher Steele dossier.

The exchanges also indicate FBI officials were aware that Steele, the former MI6 British intelligence operative then working as a confidential human source for the bureau, had contacts with news media reporters before the FISA warrant was secured. –The Hill

Two weeks after the FBI secured the FISA warrant using the Steele Dossier, Steele was fired by the FBI on November 1, 2016 for inappropriate communications with the news media.

Also withheld from both Congress and the general public until months later is the fact that Steele had been paid by Fusion GPS – an opposition research firm hired by Hillary Clinton and the DNC to dig up dirt on Donald Trump. Moreover, Steele absolutely hated Donald Trump. 

And as Solomon notes; “If the FBI knew of his media contacts and the concerns about the reliability of his dossier before seeking the warrant, it would constitute a serious breach of FISA regulations and the trust that the FISA court places in the FBI.”

That’s because the FBI has an obligation to certify to the court before it approves FISA warrants that its evidence is verified, and to alert the judges to any flaws in its evidence or information that suggest the target might be innocent. –The Hill

The FBI, however, went to extreme lengths to convince the FISA judge that Steele (“Source #1”), was reliable when they could not verify the unsubstantiated claims in his dossier – while also having to explain why they still trusted his information after having terminated Steele’s contract over inappropriate disclosures he made to the media.

“Not withstanding Source1’s reason for conducting the research into Candidate1’s ties to Russia, based on Source1’s previous reporting history with the FBI, whereby Source1 provided reliable information to the FBI, the FBI believes Source 1s reporting herein to be credible

Chuck Ross@ChuckRossDC

On top of that, Bill Priestap told Congress that corroboration of the dossier was in its “infancy” when FISAs were being granted. An FBI unit found dossier was only “minimally” corroborated.

Of course, none of this mattered to the FBI – which painted Carter Page in the most criminal light possible, as intended, in order to convince the FISA judge to grant the warrant.In order to reinforce their argument, the FBI presented various claims from the dossier as facts, such as “The FBI learnedthat Page met with at least two Russian officials” – when in fact that was simply another unverified claim from the dossier.

Itflat out accuses Page of being a Russian spy who was recruited by the Kremlin, which sought to “undermine and influence the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election in violation of U.S. criminal law,” the application reads.

Paul Sperry@paulsperry_

ALERT: The declassified FBI warrant application attests to secret FISA court that “THE FBI LEARNED that Page met with at least two Russian officials during the trip,”as if FBI learned this independently,when in fact it’s clear it relied on Clinton-paid dossier for the information

View image on Twitter

Chuck Ross@ChuckRossDC

FBI represented to a federal judge that investigators knew for certain that Carter Page met w/ Igor Sechin and Diveykin. Except, the FISA app acknowledges this intel came from Steele dossier. And FBI has acknowledged dossier was not verifieid. http://dailycaller.com/2018/07/21/doj-release-carter-page-fisa/ 

Another approach used to beef up the FISA application’s curb appeal was circular evidence, via the inclusion of a letter from Democratic Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (NV) to former FBI Director James Comey, citing information Reid got from John Brennan, which was in turn from the Clinton-funded dossier

Paul Sperry@paulsperry_

BREAKING: FBI’s FISA warrant actually cites as “evidence” to spy on Carter Page/Trump campaign “Senate Minority Leader” Harry Reid’s 2016 letter to Comey citing information he got from John Brennan who got it from the Clinton dossier — talk about circular evidence!

Meanwhile – current and former members of the US intelligence community continue to hinge their theories of Trump-Russia collusion on the Steele Dossier, despite Comey admitting that it was “salacious” and “unverified” during sworn testimony.

Most intelligence officials, such as former CIA Director John Brennan and former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, have embraced the concerns laid out in the Steele dossier of possible — but still unproven — collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.

Yet, 10 months after the probe started and a month after Robert Mueller was named special counsel in the Russia probe, Comey cast doubt on the the Steele dossier, calling it “unverified” and “salacious” in sworn testimony before Congress.

Former FBI lawyer Lisa Page further corroborated Comey’s concerns in recent testimony before House lawmakers, revealing that the FBI had not corroborated the collusion charges by May 2017, despite nine months of exhaustive counterintelligence investigation. –The Hill

Congressional investigators now want to question Comeyabout the October email string and whether it contributed to his assessment. According to Solomon, the newly requested email chain “provides the most direct evidence that the bureau, and possibly the DOJ, had reasons to doubt the Steele dossier before the FISA warrant was secured.” 

“If these documents are released, the American public will have clear and convincing evidence to see the FISA warrant that escalated the Russia probe just before Election Day was flawed and the judges [were] misled,” one source told Solomon. 

What’s more, House GOP investigators now have a growing pile of evidence that some of the information inserted into a fourth and final application for the FISA – signed by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, was suspect – as evidence by hints by House Intelligence Committee member Devin Nunes (R-CA) on Fox News‘s Sean Hannity TV show November 20. Nunes said that the declassification of the requested documents will “give finality to everyone who wants to know what their government did to a political campaign.”

As Solomon bluntly puts it:

The bureau, under a Democratic-controlled Justice Department,sought a warrant to spy on the duly nominated GOP candidate for president in the final weeks of the 2016 electionbased on evidence that was generated under a contract paid by his political opponent.

That evidence, the Steele dossier, was not fully vetted by the bureau and was deemed unverified months after the warrant was issued.

At least one news article was used in the FISA warrant to bolster the dossier as independent corroboration when, it fact, it was traced to a news organization that had been in contact with Steele, creating a high likelihood it was circular intelligence reporting.

And the entire warrant, the FBI’s own document shows, was being rushed to approval by two agents who hated Trump and stated in their own texts that they wanted to “stop” the Republican from becoming president.

No wonder Comey wanted a public testimony – where he wouldn’t have to discuss any of this.

 

end

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
AND SPECIAL THANKS TO CHRIS POWELL OF GATA FOR SENDING THIS TO US:
Huawei’s CFO arrested in Canada, faces extradition to United States
Huawei said she faces unspecified charges in the Eastern District of New York.  The Wall Street Journal reported in April that the US Justice Department was investigating whether Huawei violated US sanctions on Iran… Huawei’s rival ZTE also faced accusations of illegal dealings with Iran. In April, the United States blocked ZTE from buying US parts… 
 
Grassley accuses Fusion GPS founder of giving “extremely misleading” testimony
Says he hopes DOJ is treating it as seriously as Michael Cohen’s lying to Congress…  https://dailycaller.com/2018/12/04/grassley-fusion-gps-glenn-simpson-2/
 
Dershowitz: Mueller’s Tactics Are ‘Common When You’re Dealing with the Mafia’ and ‘Terrorists’   https://trib.al/RTFhFyt
 
John Solomon: FBI email chain may provide most damning evidence of FISA abuses yet
Sources tell me the email chain provides the most direct evidence the bureau, and possibly the DOJ, had reasons to doubt the Steele dossier before the FISA warrant was secured… If ever there were grounds to investigate the investigators, these facts provide the justification.
 
Republicans Hired DNC’s Infamous Cyber-Firm CrowdStrike — and Got Hacked in 2018 https://dailycaller.com/2018/12/04/nrcc-crowdstrike-dnc-hack/
 
NATO accuses Russia of breaking nuclear treaty; Mike Pompeo threatens U.S. withdrawal
The treaty banned all land-based cruise missiles with a range of between 310 miles and 3,417 miles…
 
The Hill: Woman says she was paid to collect absentee ballots in North Carolina House race
Ginger Eason told WSOCTV, a local news station in Charlotte, that Leslie McCrae Dowless, Jr. paid her between $75 and $100 to pick up completed absentee ballots for North Carolina’s 9th District, the results of which are being officially investigated…   http://hill.cm/96dz96b
 
Vote ‘harvesting’ is a frightening national emergency.  It is a treasonous fraud that subverts democracy.
 
Jerome Corsi’s legal complaint against Robert Mueller and request for expedited investigation
 
French PM suspends planned fuel tax increases for six-month period
 
@ByronYork: Although not emphasized in the reporting, significant parts of France don’t seem to like the real-world price of the Paris Climate Agreement. Already paying $6-plus per gallon for fuel, not interested in new green tax… http://ow.ly/tiWf30mR9ic
 
France’s protesters are part of a global backlash against climate change taxes
 
@realDonaldTrump: I am glad that my friend @EmmanuelMacron and the protestors in Paris have agreed with the conclusion I reached two years ago. The Paris Agreement is fatally flawed because it raises the price of energy for responsible countries while whitewashing some of the worst polluters in the world. I want clean air and clean water and have been making great strides in improving America’s environment. But American taxpayers… shouldn’t pay to clean up others countries’ pollution.
 
@Nigel_Farage: There is a huge divide right across the West. For 20 years, the gap between rich and poor widened as global elites ignored genuine concerns. Brexit, Trump, Italy & now these riots in France happened because ordinary people want to feel they have some power over their own futures.
 
Bloomberg’s Iowa speech met by wave of left-wing protesters – interrupted his talk and demanded he answer questions about his past support for stop-and-frisk policing practices, tone-deaf comments about women and his wealth… it was clear that Bloomberg’s billions – earned from building a media and technology empire – were central to the protester’s objections to the former mayor.
I WILL YOU ON FRIDAY
H
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