DEC 19/THE FED CONTINUES TO BE RECKLESS AS THEY RAISE INTEREST RATES 1/4% IN A DECLINING ECONOMY AND ARE HAWKISH GOING INTO 2019//USA RATES ARE INVERTING INDICATING RECESSION/ DOW JONES FALTERS OVER 350 POINTS/GOLD CLOSED UP $3.15 TO $1252.65 (PRE FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT) WHILE SILVER ROSE 10 CENTS TO $14.75/CHINA ARRESTS A THIRD CANADIAN/ITALY AND THE EU COME TO TERMS ON ITALY’S DEFICIT: THEY APPROVE THE 2.04% DEFICIT/USA WILL PULL ALL OF ITS TROOPS FROM SYRIA/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1252.65 UP $3.15 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.75 UP 10 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1243.60

 

silver: $14.60

 

Again, Goldman Sachs takes 100% of the issued gold contracts.

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2018 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,249.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/18/2018 DELIVERY DATE: 12/20/2018
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1 1
MONTH TO DATE: 7,277

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

DEC

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ (0.003 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7277 NOTICES FOR 727600 OZ  (22.634 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DECEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

119 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  595,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4070 for 20,355,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $3829:  UP 182

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3721  up 72.00 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED  349 CONTRACTS FROM 173,209 DOWN TO 173,007 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEXTODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 20 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

637 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 637 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 637 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 637 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.185 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

NOW 21.040 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC: 21,910 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 21,910 CONTRACTS) OR 109.550 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1685 CONTRACTS OR 8.426 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  109.550 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 15.57% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,786.61    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR NOVEMBER /2018:                                 247.18         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 349 WITH THE  4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY.. AS THE BOYS CONTINUE WITH THEIR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OVER TO  ETFS AT THE START OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 637 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A TINY SIZED: 288 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 637 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 349 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 4 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.65 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .875 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 125% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 119 NOTICE(S) FOR 595,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./AND NOW DEC. AT 21.100 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4251 CONTRACTS UP TO 412,485 WITH THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.50//.YESTERDAY’S TRADING) 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 4718 CONTRACTS:

 

DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 6039 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 412,485. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,290 CONTRACTS:  4251 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6039 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 10,290 CONTRACTS OR 1,029,000 OZ = 32.00 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $1.50???

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7213 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 109,218 CONTRACTS OR 10,921,800 OZ OR 343.11 TONNES (13 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8401 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 343/11 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 343.11/2550 x 100% TONNES = 13.45% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     7110.67  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018:                        552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4,251 WITH THE GAIN  IN PRICING ($1.50) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6039 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6039 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 10,290 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6039 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4251 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 32.00 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $1.50 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??

 

 

we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

FILED LATE

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY (PRE FOMC)

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

I) A DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   771.79 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 771.79 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS  TODAY:

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/

A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 349 CONTRACTS from 173,209 DOWN TO 172,860  AND MOVING FURTHER FROM  THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

637 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 637 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 349 CONTRACTS TO THE 637 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN  OF 435 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.185 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. AND NOW 21.045 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 4 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 637 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.09 POINTS OR 1.05% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 51.14 POINTS OR 0.20% //The Nikkei closed UP 127.53 OR 0.60%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.21%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8988 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 46.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.45 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8988AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8971: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)Trump will not like this:  China is accused of a huge hack of thousands of European diplomatic cables

( zerohedge)

ii)I guess travel to China is out of the question for Canadians and Americans.  China arrested a third Canadian and he is neither a diplomat nor an entrepreneur. (And a little reminder to travelers:  if you have a flight with a stop in Beijing, i would rethink those travel plans….) And if you think we are closer to a trade deal with China guess again
( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

ITALY

Seems that our Italian friends have won out:  The EU has agreed with their 2.04% budgetary deficit.  The ECB will now continue with its purchase of Italian bonds as they are the only purchasers of these.  Italy gets to spend and will no doubt increase its debt to GDP

( zerohedge)

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/SYRIA/USA

The USA after stating days ago that they will be in Syria for quite some time, reversed that edict as they are now preparing for a full withdrawal of forces from Syria.  Obviously they did not want to get into the cross-hairs of Turkey.  Erdogan is planning a massive invasion from the North targeting the Kurds.  Trump realizes this is going to be a quagmire so he is exiting

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)Venezuela

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Venezuela still cannot get its gold..mainly because the physical does not exist
(Bullionstar/GATA)

ii)Chinese newspapers are now stating that GATA is not wrong in the gold and silver manipulation by the western banks/governments.( GATA/Chris Powell)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

ii)Market data/

Hard data continues to point that the uSA economy as well as the global economy is contracting.  Today existing home sales tumble 7% year/year.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Graham Summers points out that the entire global system is contracting. All you need to see is the price of oil falling, the price of copper falling and the 10 year USA bond falling in yield. On top of that Bellwether Fed ex just reported lousy earnings and told that future earnings will be waning

(courtesy Graham Summers)

b)The collapse in earnings at Fed ex suggests a severe global recession or depression
(courtesy zerohedge)

c)Illinois is in a mess and so is Chicago.  Actually every Chicago homeowner owes $140,000 to bail out just the city’s pension problems( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

d)Jeffrey snider studies the odds aspects of the US Treasury futures and the future contract of it, itself. Generally when the open interest climbs above 900 million it spells trouble, that the Fed is wrong on the reflation scenario.. It is now over 1.1 mllion contracts and it indicates trouble ahead.

take your time with this…
a most important read…
(courtesy Jeff Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)A good one:  a good analysis of James Comey’s conflicted testimony

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)They agree on a stopgap funding bill to keep the government open and Trump does not get funding for his wall
(courtesy zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4251 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 412,485 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.50) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6039 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR DECEMBER:  6039 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6039 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  10,290 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6039 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 4,251 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10,290 contracts OR 1,029,000 OZ OR 32,00 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of December and we now have a total of 387 contracts stand in December so we had a loss of 20 contracts.  We had 15 notices served yesterday, so we LOST 5 contracts or 500 oz will NOT stand as these guys  morphed into London based forwards and as well as accepting a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next delivery month after December is January which saw it FALL TO 2464 FOR A LOSS OF 58 CONTRACTS.  February GAINED A CONSIDERABLE 1272 contracts to stand at 303,617 contracts

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

 

 

WE HAD 1 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 100 OZ. (0.037 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI fell BY 349 CONTRACTS FROM 173,209 DOWN TO 172,860 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 4 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 637 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 637 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 637.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 288 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  349 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 637 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   288 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 4 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of DECEMBER and here in this front month of December we now have 257 contracts standing for a LOSS of 34 contracts.  We had 22 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we LOST 12 contracts or an additional 60,000 oz will NOT stand for delivery as these guys morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus.

 

After  December we have the non active  January contract month and here we saw a LOSS of 18 contracts up to 1760 contracts.  February saw a 1 contract loss to stand at 120. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a LOSS of 393 contracts down to 141,862.

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 119 notice(s) filed for 595,000 OZ for the DEC, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 209790 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  188,508  contracts

volumes at the comex for both gold and silver are much less than usual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 19-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
NIL
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
386 contracts
(38600 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7277 notices
727700 OZ
22.634 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  nil oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  NIL oz

 

we had 0  adjustments….

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 1 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7277) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (387 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 766,300 OZ OR 23.835 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (7277 x 100 oz)  + {387)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 766,300 oz standing OR 23.835 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DECEMBER.

WE LOST 5 CONTRACTS OR 500 OZ WILL NOT  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY  MORPHED INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 22.417 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 23.835 TONNES STANDING FOR DECEMBER

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  720,731.855 oz or   22.417 tonnes*
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,338,693.721 oz 259.368 tonnes
*however we have 22.622 tonnes of gold ALREADY SERVED UPON against dealer inventory of 22.417 tonnes and so far we have had no settlements  as of yet.  We generally get a settlement when we see an adjustment from the dealer side to the customer side..
we have a total of 23.835 tonnes of gold standing for metal against only 22.417 tonnes of dealer gold and .182 tonnes has been settled so far…(Dec 17)

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 95 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

DEC INITIAL standings/SILVER

DEC 19, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,846,612.313 oz
CNT
JPM

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,084,361.309
oz
CNT
HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
119
CONTRACT(S)
595,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
138 contracts
690,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4070 contracts

(20,350,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.55 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.03% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

 

ii) Into CNT: 491,315.409 oz

iii) Into HSBC:  593,045.900 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 1,084.361.309  oz

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:
iii)Out of CNT: 656,136.493 oz
v) Out of JPMorgan:  1,190,475.820 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,8,46,612.313   oz

 

we had 1 adjustments and this is what I look for in settlements..we got it in silver but not in gold yet.

i) Out of CNT 473,451.790 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into  the dealer account of CNT

and this would be deemed a settlement

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.489 million

total dealer + customer silver:  296.466  million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2018. contract month is represented by 119 contract(s) FOR 595,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4070 x 5,000 oz = 20,350,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (257) and the number of notices served upon today (119x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2018 contract month: 4070(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC( 257) -number of notices served upon today (191)x 5000 oz equals 21,040,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We LOST 12 contracts or 60,000 additional oz will stand and these guys refused to accept a London based forward as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus. The EFP route is nothing but a cash settlement process and it is done in London to avoid detection. It is becoming quite obvious that the bankers are in urgent need of silver as we witness the constant queue jumping in silver these past 20 months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  56,003 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 47,314 CONTRACTS… 

volumes at the comex are contracting badly.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 44,869 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 236 million OZ  33.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.75-% (DEC 19/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.77% to NAV (DEC 19 /2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.75%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.51/TRADING 11.97/DISCOUNT 4.44

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.35/A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 26/WITH GOLD DOWN 65 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

 

NOV 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 17.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 771.79 tonnes

*IN LAST 519 TRADING DAYS: 163.37 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 419 TRADING DAYS: A NET 3.37 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

NOV 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ

NOV 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

 

 

DEC 19/2018:

 

Inventory 318.547 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.49/ and libor 6 month duration 2.88

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .39

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.69%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.06

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.37

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

Everything Bubble Started Bursting In 2018 – GoldCore Video

– Review of 2018: ‘Everything bubble’ started bursting
– International stock market indices and many property markets have fallen sharply
–  S&P 500 -4.5%, Nikkei -8%, EuroStoxx 50 -12.5%, FTSE -13%, DAX -16.5%
– Of 54 major international stock market indices, only 6 are higher (see table below)
– Global property bubble bursting – London, Sydney and Vancouver fall nearly 10%
– Crypto bubble burst as bitcoin falls from $20k to below $4k and cryptos collapsed
– Collapse of central bank driven asset bubbles to continue and intensify in 2019
– Gold lower in USD in 2018 but gains in EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD and most currencies

Watch video here

Editors note: In our first Goldnomics podcast this time last year, we considered the outlook for markets in ‘What 2018 has in store for financial markets’ (here).  A year later our conversation looks quite prescient given how stock market (see below) and property market bubbles have started to burst and the collapse of the crypto and bitcoin bubble.

 


Source: WSJ

 


Watch ‘2018 – Everything Bubble Starts Bursting’ video here

 

CHRISTMAS SCHEDULE

We will be closed from 24th of December (next Monday), and reopen again on the 2nd of January (Wednesday). Our last trading day will be on the 21st of December (this Friday) and insured deliveries will begin again in the first week of January 2019.

We wish all our subscribers & clients a Happy Christmas and a Healthy & Wealthy 2019

 


Secure Storage Ireland – Click here for information

 

News and Commentary

Stocks Edge Up Before Fed Decision; Bonds Steady: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)

Fed must take wait-and-see approach for stocks to get ‘sustained’ rally (CNBC.com)

S&P 500 ends flat in volatile trade ahead of Fed meeting (Reuters.com)

Chance of recession rises to the highest level of the Trump presidency: CNBC Fed Survey (CNBC.com)

As Global Equities Take a Hit, Gold Miners Are Doing Fine (Bloomberg.com)


Source: Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance

We Are In a Global Bear Market – Druckenmiller (Bloomberg.com)

This Is A Bear Market – Stocks Slump After Gundlach Unleashes Truth-Bombs (ZeroHedge.com)

How trade wars could easily get out of control (Telegraph.co.uk)

Banks’ confessions refute ‘conspiracy theory’ scorn of gold rigging complaints – Murphy (Youtube.com)

The world changes when you see gold under water (VOANews.com)

Sydney’s 10% Property Plunge Will Be the Central Bank’s Biggest Worry (Yahoo.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

18 Dec: USD 1,248.80, GBP 987.43 & EUR 1,096.70 per ounce
17 Dec: USD 1,239.10, GBP 982.61 & EUR 1,093.13 per ounce
14 Dec: USD 1,239.15, GBP 983.39 & EUR 1,096.90 per ounce
13 Dec: USD 1,244.45, GBP 982.87 & EUR 1,093.62 per ounce
12 Dec: USD 1,244.75, GBP 993.31 & EUR 1,098.24 per ounce
11 Dec: USD 1,248.25, GBP 988.99 & EUR 1,096.59 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

18 Dec: USD 14.66, GBP 11.55 & EUR 12.86 per ounce
17 Dec: USD 14.60, GBP 11.55 & EUR 12.86 per ounce
14 Dec: USD 14.58, GBP 11.61 & EUR 12.92 per ounce
13 Dec: USD 14.68, GBP 11.60 & EUR 12.90 per ounce
12 Dec: USD 14.66, GBP 11.68 & EUR 12.93 per ounce
11 Dec: USD 14.64, GBP 11.62 & EUR 12.85 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Global Financial System Is ‘Unstable’ and Risk Of ‘Clearing System Seizure’, BIS Warns
– Gold Flowing From West To East and Now To Goldman Sachs
– Brexit Risk Sees Gold Rise To Test EUR 1,100 Per Ounce
– Yellen Warns Another Financial Crisis Is Brewing
– Gold Krugerrand Coin Worth $1,200 Donated To Charity Again
– EU Recession Imminent – Euro Disunion as Brexit, Italy and End of QE Loom
– Gold and Silver Gained 2% and 3% Last Week While Stocks Dropped Nearly 5%
– Irish Central Bank Refuses To Discuss Gold Reserves In Bank of England Vaults
– “Fake Markets” To Lead to Global Financial Crisis? – Goldnomics Podcast

Watch on Youtube here

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
END
 
ii) GATA stories
Venezuela still cannot get its gold..mainly because the physical does not exist
(Bullionstar/GATA)

Ronan Manly: Venezuela’s gold in limbo amid tug-of-war at Bank of England

 Section: 

1:12p ET Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly today provides a detailed update about Venezuela’s attempt to repatriate its gold from the Bank of England. As best as Manly can determine, the bank still has not released the metal.

Manly’s report is headlined “Venezuela’s Gold in Limbo amid Tug-of-War at the Bank of England” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/venezuelas-gold-in-limbo-a…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Despite bank confessions, they still refute conspiracy theory on gold/silver rigging

(courtesy Bill Murphy/Dunagan/Reluctant Preppers)

 

Banks’ confessions refute ‘conspiracy theory’ scorn of gold rigging complaints, Murphy says

 Section: 

1:32p ET Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Dunagun Kaiser of Reluctant Preppers today interviews GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and they express amazement that complaints of gold market manipulation are still dismissed as “conspiracy theory” even as investment banks increasingly confess to market rigging.

Gold’s price, Murphy notes, is a measure of inflation that tends to push interest rates up, and governments aim to suppress the price to help keep interest rates down.

The interview is 28 minutes long and can be viewed at You Tube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1JRtLY0L0I&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Chinese newspapers are now stating that GATA is not wrong in the gold and silver manipulation by the western banks/governments.

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell)

From China: ‘GATA is not wrong’

 Section: 

3:23p ET Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Thanks to C.C., our new friend in Shanghai, China, for alerting us to Chinese-language commentary published in August in the Hong Kong Economic Journal that cited GATA extensively, even taking for illustration the GATA painting by Alain Despert:

https://www1.hkej.com/dailynews/investment/article/1914231/

Your secretary/treasurer today has had some fun attempting a translation using a couple of internet translator sites and attempting a little editing for clarity while hoping to avoid any change in meaning and any stumbling badly over Chinese idioms. For example, “gold permabulls” translates literally into Chinese as “gold eternal cattle.” (This may be close enough, since many of us who maintain our interest in gold spend most of our days sitting in front of our computers and could afford to lose some weight.)

… 

 

That attempted translation is appended, and clumsy as it may be, a few conclusions fairly may be drawn from it:

— China continues to know all about the Western gold price suppression scheme and even about GATA and there is more to China’s knowledge than was relayed by the cables sent from the U.S. embassy in Beijing to the State Department in Washington some years ago, cables that were revealed by Wikileaks:

http://www.gata.org/node/10380

http://www.gata.org/node/10416

— The author of the Hong Kong Economic Journal commentary appended is following GATA’s work closely and his concluding observation, about silver, implies that he also follows the work of silver market analyst and market-rigging whistleblower Ted Butler.

— Complaints about gold and silver market manipulation can’t get into mainstream Western news organizations despite the most ardent agitation. But such complaints can get into Chinese news organizations quite by themselves. In this respect the news organizations of a nominally communist country are freer than those of what is nominally the Land of the Free.

— And the British poet and humanitarian Arthur Hugh Clough, whose poem “Say Not the Struggle Naught Availeth” was beloved by Winston Churchill in the darkest hours of World War II, may have been right, even with his compass points reversed:

And not by eastern windows only,
When daylight comes, comes in the light.
In front the sun climbs slow, how slowly,
But westward, look, the land is bright.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Gold Permabulls Aren’t Wrong

By Shi Lin Shu
Hong Kong Economic Journal
Monday, August 13, 2018

https://www1.hkej.com/dailynews/investment/article/1914231/

This newspaper’s main writer, Bi Laolin, mentioned me in the headline of his Investor Diary diary column Friday. I was flattered but also so dissatisfied with it.

Bi Laolin wrote that some internet blogs are loyal to gold. This is true. Any time you look at the media or internet, opinions about gold are often in the majority. This is human nature. People are optimistic about the things they like, and the editor of an internet site or news organization intentionally or unintentionally caters to his audience’s psychology. The result of this tendency is that analytical observations are not entirely objective and neutral.

Gold permabulls are not entirely motivated by emotional bias but also by belief that government’s gold policy is flawed — that the authorities and their agents often manipulate the gold and silver market, which is very unfair to the public and investors.

The most iconic of these permabulls is a civil-rights organization called the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), whose symbol is a figure like Don Quixote riding on a horse, holding the GATA banner, leading a crowd to the Federal Reserve headquarters. [Actually, the building in the painting is the U.S. Treasury Department, but no matter.]

GATA took action against a number of large investment banks that manipulate the gold and silver markets and has achieved some success, with a number of large banks being fined, but the market is far from being as fair as GATA hopes.

Bi Laolin praised the spirit of GATA’s Don Quixote but I have previously reminded readers that our identity is that of a general investor or analyst, not that of gold and silver market revolutionists, if, to participate in the market game, you have to face reality and the unspoken rules.

GATA and the gold permabulls are not wrong. The gold market is indeed a long process of repeated climbing, and gold prices are often artificially depressed. … The long haul for gold may be too long for people, but if we see clearly and grasp the main direction of the long trend, gold is valuable. …

[The commentary then does some technical analysis of gold and silver prices before concluding:]

JPMorgan Chase will stop a large number of silver shorting activities, but the data shows that the short-selling by eight traders led by the bank is still equal to 200 days of world silver production, only one day less than a month ago. It seems that the GATA revolution has not yet succeeded and must continue to work.




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

 

-END-

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8988/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8971   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 27.09 POINTS OR 1.05%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 51.14 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 127.53 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.84/Euro RISES TO 1.1398

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.35/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 46.52 and Brent: 56.45

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.24%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.76% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.36%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.52: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.29

3k Gold at $1247.70 silver at:14.66   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.33

3m oil into the 46 dollar handle for WTI and 56 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.35 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9937 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1328 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.24%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.82% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.07%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3369

 

 

Futures Rise Ahead Of Fed; Europe Jumps On Italy Budget Deal

S&P futures rose after yesterday’s volatile session ahead of today’s Fed decision, and European stocks jumped after Italy struck a crucial budget deal with the EU following a downbeat Asian session as oil tried to rebound after a furious three-day selloff that rattled global markets and sent investors scrambling into the safety of government bonds (in record numbers according to BofA).

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.5% rising to session highs after four days of declines, with banking and healthcare stocks contributing the most to the gains, after the European Commission decided against launching a disciplinary procedure against Italy over its budget, while carmakers climbing on hopes of a breakthrough on trade.

Rome and Brussels ended their long-running feud over Italy’s 2019 budget, striking a deal on spending plans that had shocked investors and stoked tensions between the country’s populist government and the rest of the EU. Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU commission vice-president responsible for the euro, said the agreement that had been reached would lead to a budget deficit next year of precisely 2.04% of GDP and not a penny less or more compared with 2.4 per cent in Rome’s original plans.

Europe’s rebound followed a weak Asian session which saw equities mostly lower after a disappointing market debut for SoftBank Group’s Japanese telecom business and amid cautious trade ahead of the FOMC rate decision, and after the attempted rebound on Wall St. where the S&P closed little above its 2018 low. Australia’s ASX 200 (-0.2%) was pressured by oil names following the mass decline in the complex, while Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) initially traded with no firm direction amid a choppy JPY before digging deeper into losses and giving up the 21,000 handle. Sentiment across the region was also reflected by the 10% plunge in Softbank’s mobile business in its USD 24bln market debut. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) were mixed as the former was supported by financial names with the four large banks in positive territory. Meanwhile, mainland gains in real estates and utilities were offset by the decline in the energy and healthcare sectors. Finally, JGB futures posted the biggest intraday gain since 2016 on growing concerns over the global economy health, at one point triggering an emergency margin call for JGB futures  after the 10Y note future spiked as it triggered stop losses.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index erased losses made in late trading on Tuesday after earnings from FedEx cast doubt on the strength of global trade, and were trading 25 points higher from session – and 2018 – lows of 2,530.95. FedEx, considered a bellwether for the world economy, slashed its 2019 forecasts, noting “ongoing deceleration” in global growth and sending S&P futures sharply lower early in the session only for market to quickly BTFD.

Even with today’s rebound, US stocks are set for their worst December since 1931, the depths of the Great Depression.

“It’s a confluence of several important factors: the market is adjusting its outlook on growth and there is a consensus we will see a slowdown. More importantly, the market is adjusting to the idea this will translate into lower earnings growth,” said Norman Villamin, chief investment officer for private banking at Union Bancaire Privee in Zurich.

“It’s being complicated by the tightening liquidity situation with the Fed expected to move today and the ECB having signaled the end of its (stimulus)”.

Crude was mixed, trading unchanged after the biggest three-day slump since 2016 on slowing demand. Oil’s spectacular fall – down almost 10% since last Thursday – and world stocks’ plunge to 19-month lows spurred speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve might be done with tightening after its policy meeting later in the day. While WTI was unchanged at just above $46 after plunging 6 percent overnight, its 35% fall since October is sending a deflationary pulse through the world just as trade and economic activity are cooling.

Looking at today’s Fed decision, Fed Fund Futures are sticking with a two-in-three chance of a rate rise on Wednesday and Villamin expects the Fed to move twice in 2019. That’s a more hawkish call than the broader market which is pricing less than one rise in 2019, down from three not long back.

“One thing I would like to see is what people are calling a dovish hike,” Ronald Temple, head of U.S. equity and co-head of multi asset at Lazard Asset Management LLC, told Bloomberg TV. “The hiatus on trade helps as well, but I’m a bit more skeptical about how long-lasting that is.”

Beyond the Fed, trade and politics remain the dominant themes. Unless Trump and Congress reach a deal, spending authority expires for a majority of the U.S. government on Friday night. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said America and China are planning to hold meetings in January to negotiate a broader trade truce.

The expectations of a Fed pause and the equity selloff sent 10-year Treasury yields to the lowest since August at 2.799 percent down 20 bps in December – while two-year yields touched a three-month trough of 2.629 percent, sliding from November’s 2.977 percent peak. Meanwhile, as noted earlier, Italian debt surged after the European Commission was said to have decided against launching a disciplinary procedure against the country over its budget.

Yield

The yield on benchmark Japanese notes slipped to within striking distance of 0% before a rapid turnaround as the surge in demand triggered a margin call.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell a third day as traders speculated the Fed may signal Wednesday that it’s approaching a pause in its rate-hike cycle; the greenback retreated versus most of its Group-of-10 peers. The euro advanced and Italian bonds surged to take yields to the lowest in nearly three months after the nation was said to have reached a technical agreement with EU officials over its budget. The pound was steady after U.K. inflation rate slowed to a 20-month low of 2.3% y/y, in line with estimates. The Norwegian krone led gains in G-10, rebounding from a one-year low against the euro, as oil prices stabilized

In commodities, Brent (+0.1%) and WTI (+0.1%) remain in close proximity to recent lows following from yesterdays significant losses where WTI dropped by 7.3%. Prices were mostly unreactive to the surprise 3.5mln barrel build in API crude inventories, where consensus has been for a draw of over 2mln barrels. Markets will be looking to see if EIA data later in the session confirms this build or if the crude stocks consensus of -2.475mln barrels is correct; if the build is confirmed it will be the first in 3 weeks and may generate new downward price pressure.

Gold is trading relatively flat after reaching a 5-month high of USD 1251.43/oz earlier in the session, with the yellow metal  continuing to benefit from a softer dollar ahead of the FOMC decision. Elsewhere, profit margins at Chinese steel mills has  significantly narrowed in November as the Chinese government has removed overall winter production restriction, now allowing  cities and provinces to decide output curbs based on their emissions levels.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 2,559.25
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 148.27
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 479.88
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 20,987.92
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,556.15
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 25,865.39
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 2,549.56
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 36,506.13
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5,580.60
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,078.84
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 340.95
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.252%
  • Euro up 0.4% to $1.1403
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.1 bps to 2.576%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 1.351%
  • Brent Futures up 1% to $56.83/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,248.30
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.87

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The U.S. and China are planning to hold meetings in January to negotiate a broader truce in their trade war but are unlikely to have any face-to-face contact before then, according to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. READ: Xi’s defiant end to 2018 signals more U.S.-China tension ahead
  • Italy’s populist government is betting the European Commission will ratify an informal budget deal on Wednesday to avoid sanctions over its spending plans
  • U.K. Cabinet ministers agreed to implement “in full” plans for a no- deal break from the European Union, including 3,500 troops put on standby and 2b pounds ($2.5b) of funds made available for contingencies
  • Economic jitters and surging supplies from the U.S. to Russia hammered oil again, with crude suffering its biggest decline in more than three weeks
  • Japan’s exports rose 0.1% in November from a year earlier, broadly in line with estimates and reflecting a weakening pace
  • Thailand’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2011, joining peers in the region in tightening monetary policy this year
  • India’s rupee rallied with sovereign bonds as sliding oil prices improved the outlook for the nation’s finances and the central bank extended support via open-market debt purchases
  • Citigroup Inc. faces losses of as much as $180 million on loans made to an Asian hedge fund whose foreign-exchange wagers went awry, prompting board-level discussions and a business shakeup, according to a person briefed on the matter

Asian equities were mostly lower amid cautious trade ahead of the FOMC rate decision, and after the attempted rebound
on Wall St. where the S&P closed little above its 2018 low, while the Dow Jones was supported by gains in Goldman Sachs. ASX
200 (-0.2%) was pressured by oil names following the mass decline in the complex, while Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) initially traded with no
firm direction amid a choppy JPY before digging deeper into losses and giving up the 21,000 handle. Sentiment across the region
was also reflected by the 10% plunge in Softbank’s mobile business in its USD 24bln market debut. Elsewhere, Hang Seng
(+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) were mixed as the former was supported by financial names with the four large banks in
positive territory. Meanwhile, Mainland gains in real estates and utilities were offset by the decline in the energy and healthcare
sectors. Finally, JGB futures posted the biggest intraday gain since 2016 on growing concerns over the global economy health,
while futures purchases were also exacerbated after BoJ kept 5-10yr purchases steady at JPY 430bln.

Top Asian News

  • China Watchers Split on Yuan Outlook; It Comes Down to Trade
  • Samsung’s 5G Network Grab Gets Boost With Huawei, ZTE Under Fire
  • Third Canadian Citizen Detained in China, National Post Says
  • Stocks Edge Up Before Fed Decision; Bonds Steady: Markets Wrap

Major European indices are in the green (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%(, with some outperformance seen in the FTSE MIB (+1.6%) with banking names such as UBI Banca (+4.0%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (+3.7%) benefitting from reports that the EU commission has accepted Italy’s 2019 budget deficit at 2.04%. Sectors are mixed with some outperformance seen in the telecom and consumer discretionary sector. Other notable movers include GlaxoSmithKline (+6.6%) in the green as they are to create a new healthcare joint venture with Pfizer estimated combined sales of GBP 9.bln. With Fresenius SE (+3.0%) following an upgraded to buy at Goldman Sachs. Whilst Natixis (-6.5%) are at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after reporting Q4 revenue will be 10% lower than the previous year. Whilst postal names such as Royal Mail (-2.6%) and Deutsche Post (-4.5%) are down after FedEx cut their guidance.

Top European News

  • Europe Loses Taste for Punishing Russia as U.S. Toughens Stance
  • Italian Markets Rally as Budget Agreement Seen Reached With EU
  • U.K. Unveils Post-Brexit Migrant Plan for Skilled Workers
  • Electronics Retailer Ceconomy Latest Victim of Retail Crisis

In FX, the Dollar remains depressed in the run-up to the FOMC in anticipation of a dovish hike if not quite one more and done as a growing number of pundits look for the accompanying statement and guidance to be tweaked via the dot plots and/or removal of further gradual tightening. The index has duly retreated from another 97.000+ test and is holding just above recent lows ahead of 96.500, with the December base so far around 96.360 and ytd peak circa 97.710-715 the obvious bearish and bullish targets depending on the tone of the Fed.

  • EUR/AUD/NZD – All vying for top G10 spot and biggest gainer vs the flagging Greenback, but with the single getting an extra lift or rather relief bid on the back of Italy and EU agreement on the 2019 budget that is likely to be officially announced by Italian PM
  • Conte shortly. Eur/Usd has subsequently revisited 1.1400+ terrain, albeit just, while Aud/Usd has had another go at 0.7200 and the Kiwi is pivoting 0.6850 even though NZ current account data for Q3 was somewhat disappointing overnight. Note, decent option expiry interest may act as a drag on Eur/Usd with 1 bn at 1.1375 and the same amount between 1.1355-60 rolling off, while there  is strong chart resistance ahead of 1.1450 at 1.1442 (earlier December peak) and 1.1445 (Fib).
  • JPY/GBP – Also firmer vs the Usd, with the former just off a marginal new mtd high, but perhaps restricted to an extent by option related flow as 1.2 bn resides between 112.00-05 and 1.5 bn sits from 112.40-50, while for the Yen there is also the BoJ’s final policy meeting of 2018 to consider just after tonight’s FOMC. Meanwhile, Brexit continues to put a brake on the Pound, or at least temper Sterling gains as Cable crests 1.2650 and Eur/Gbp hovers around 0.9000 with little reaction to broadly in line UK inflation data or a modest beat on CBI trends that seems to have been released early.
  • CAD/CHF – The marginal underperformers, with the Loonie still blighted by crude’s slump and diplomatic strains with China, but just off new ytd lows a fraction above 1.3500 ahead of Canadian CPI data, while the Franc meanders between 0.9910-35 and  around 1.1300 vs the Eur.

In commodities, Brent (+0.1%) and WTI (+0.1%) remain in close proximity to recent lows, as global equity markets have begun  stabilising, following on from yesterdays significant losses where WTI dropped by 7.3%. Prices were mostly unreactive to the  surprise 3.5mln barrel build in API crude inventories, where consensus has been for a draw of over 2mln barrels. Markets will be  looking to see if EIA data later in the session confirms this build or if the crude stocks consensus of -2.475mln barrels is correct; if  the build is confirmed it will be the first in 3 weeks and may generate new downward price pressure.

Gold is trading relatively flat after reaching a 5-month high of USD 1251.43/oz earlier in the session, with the yellow metal continuing to benefit from a softer dollar ahead of the FOMC decision. Elsewhere, profit margins at Chinese steel mills has significantly narrowed in November as the Chinese government has removed overall winter production restriction, now allowing cities and provinces to decide output curbs based on their emissions levels. Saudi Finance Minister says the 2019 budget allocation to the energy industry, mining and logistics is over 3 times higher than in the previous budget.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.6%
  • 8:30am: Current Account Balance, est. $125b deficit, prior $101.5b deficit
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.2m, prior 5.22m; Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -0.38%, prior 1.4%
  • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision; Interest Rate on Excess Reserves, est. 2.4%, prior 2.2%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Ahead of the Fed meeting conclusion today, yesterday had looked like we’d finally get a dull pre-Xmas session. However a sharp decline in oil prices late in the European session put pay to this. Indeed WTI and Brent tumbled -5.54% and -7.36%, respectively, sending WTI to $46.21/bbl and the lowest since August 2017. The price is also down almost 40% from the October highs just seven weeks ago. Despite the energy sector struggling (-2.35%), the S&P 500 ultimately closed flat, albeit that was after volatile intraday moves of +1.10% and -0.68%. Yesterday’s flat session at least snaps a losing streak of -3.95% over the previous two sessions, but leaving the S&P 500 still on track for its worst December since 1931. Europe struggled but in fairness was still playing catch up (or down) to the US with the STOXX 600 closing -0.82%. US HY underperformed yesterday with spreads +12bps wider. That means they are now +146bps wide of the October tights, and +88bps wider YTD. As recently as November 9th, spreads were still tighter than where they started this year.

The immediate catalyst for the oil move was the publication of Saudi Arabia’s budget plan, which included ambitious oil revenue targets of $177 billion for next year. To reach that number, the Kingdom is either assuming very unrealistic oil prices of around $80 per barrel, or they plan to pump more than the 10.2 million barrels per day target agreed earlier this month.Since the $80 per barrel figure is around 30% more than consensus estimates, the latter scenario looks more probable, which would equate to a significant increase in global supply and would end up being more bearish for prices.

Now to the Fed which starts a run of three central bank meeting outcomes over the next couple of days. Our US economists expect the Fed to raise rates for the fourth time this year (and a 20bp increase to the IOER) – which is in line with the consensus and market pricing. The more important question for our economists is what signal will the Committee send about its policy path in the coming years. They expect the message to be that the Fed remains upbeat on the outlook and expects to raise rates further in coming quarters, but that the pace of normalization is likely to slow next year from its recent quarterly rate as the Fed becomes more data dependent. Reflecting this, our colleagues expect the statement to modify the forward guidance language by noting that gradual increases remain appropriate in the “near term”. Also worth keeping an eye on is the 2019 median dot which our team expect to fall from three hikes to two. This wouldn’t impact our house view for three hikes for next year and, in fact, if the Fed signals some flexibility around the pace of hikes, while maintaining the overall trajectory for the terminal rate, it could help to ease financial conditions which in turn makes three hikes more likely next year. We’ll know more tonight with the meeting outcome due at 7pm GMT and Powell’s press conference shortly after.

Interestingly, in our yield curve note from last week (link here ) we showed how 2s10s has inverted ahead of each of the last 9 recession. However there was one false positive ahead of the 1970 recession where this measure inverted 48 months before the recession. In our view the main reason for a false positive was due to the Fed easing policy via cutting rates in late 1966/early 1967. This was despite the fact that core inflation was on the rise and accelerated more as the fed funds rate declined, and ultimately therefore can be viewed as a policy mistake given that this uptick in inflation continued into the early 1970s. Curves subsequently steepened again in 1967 once the Fed cut rates, however they inverted once more in 1968 as tightening resumed and the Fed corrected its earlier error. The recession then eventually materialised in 1970 after the second inverted YC signal worked with a more normal time lag. We mention this as there could be parallels to today if the Fed responds dovishly to the recent wobbles in markets and recent softness in inflation. This could delay a slowdown (and curve inversion) but at the expense of exacerbating pressures in the labour market and generating higher inflation further down the line. So food for thought as we hit more challenging times for the Fed.

Ahead of today’s meeting, President Trump reiterated his view that the Fed shouldn’t hike, tweeting yesterday that “I hope the people over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make yet another mistake. Also don’t let the market become any more illiquid than it already is. Stop with the 50 B’s”. The “50 B’s” reference apparently referred to the balance sheet roll off caps. That tweet did little to move Treasuries with yields lower across the curve – more reflecting the oil move. 10y yields ended -3.4bps lower and the 2s10s curve finished slightly steeper at 16.8bps. It had been a similar story for Europe too where bond yields were broadly 1bp to 2bps lower. Gilts were the exception with yields up 1.6bps however there didn’t appear to be any material new Brexit newsflow from yesterday’s Cabinet meeting.

Also on the cards today is the European Commission meeting to discuss Italy’s budget. Press reports (Bloomberg) suggested that the two sides have reached an informal agreement to avoid a launch of the excessive deficit procedure. Apparently, the deal will include delays to some of the newly planned social spending and a reduction in the size of other programs. Overall the new deficit is reported to be around 2.04% and includes EUR 4bn in cuts versus the original proposal. In an effort to prove their seriousness, the government will also cut their 2019 growth forecasts to 0.9-1.0% from 1.5%. This follows news (Corriere della Sera) that the Commission was still not satisfied by the latest plan presented by the government with the sticking point being that the Commission does not see a sufficient enough reduction in the structural deficit – the important condition to avoiding an EDP. We will find out more today as to whether both sides have indeed reached an agreement.

This morning in Asia markets are continuing to trade mixed with the Nikkei (-0.57%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.25%) trading lower while the Hang Seng (+0.16%) and Kospi (+0.69%) are trading up. In overnight news, the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the US and China are planning to hold meetings in January to negotiate a broader truce in their trade wars but are unlikely to have any face-to-face contact before then. It’s also worth noting that the three-day annual economic policy-setting meeting of Chinese leaders kicks off today. This could have important policy implications for 2019 and beyond so watch for any headlines. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.57% despite FedEx’s stock price being down -5.55% in aftermarket trade as the company slashed its profit forecast for the current fiscal year and decided to pare its international air-freight capacity on account of a darkening view of demand for shipping services outside the US. Interestingly, FedEx has made a U-turn on its guidance just three months after raising it, reflecting an abrupt change in FedEx’s view of the global economy and indicating that the global macroeconomic headwinds are rising.

Meanwhile, yesterday’s data didn’t add a whole lot to the growth debate. The volatile housing starts and building permits series surprised to the upside in November with the former rising +3.2% mom (vs. 0.0% expected) and the latter +5.0% mom (vs. -0.4% expected). However, the rise was concentrated in the south of the US and represented some pay-back from weakness over the last few months, as hurricanes depressed regional activity. In Germany, there was some slight disappointment in the December IFO survey with the business climate reading down 1pt to 101.0 (vs. 101.7 expected) largely due to a drop in the expectations component of 1.4pts to 97.3 (vs. 98.4 expected). That is actually the lowest expectations reading since November 2014 and it appears that the IFO survey is now finally catching up with the slide in the Germany PMIs in recent months.

Looking at the day ahead, the highlight will no doubt be the Fed this evening however prior to that this morning we get November PPI in Germany and the November inflation data docket in the UK. The December CBI trends orders and selling prices survey for the UK is also out just before lunch while in the US we get the Q3 current account balance reading and November existing home sales data. The ECB’s Hansson is also slated to speak today while the other potentially important event to note is the aforementioned European Commission meeting to discuss Italy’s budget and the potential for enforcing the excessive deficit procedure.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.09 POINTS OR 1.05% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 51.14 POINTS OR 0.20% //The Nikkei closed UP 127.53 OR 0.60%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.21%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8988 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 46.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.45 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8988AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8971: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADINGWEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

END

3 C CHINA

Trump will not like this:  China is accused of a huge hack of thousands of European diplomatic cables

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Accused Of “Huge Hack” Of Thousands Of European Diplomatic Cables

Step side Russia: the new global hacking bogeyman is now officially China.

Just days after the US accused Beijing of hacking hundreds of millions of Marriott accounts and extracting the private data of countless Americans, even as the ongoing diplomatic feud over Chinese “intermediation” in western communications via the likes of Huawei escalates, moments ago the EU unveiled that China was now also the new Wikileaks, accusing hacker tied to China’s People’s Liberation Army of a “huge hack” of its diplomatic cables and reviving fears about vulnerabilities in the 28-country bloc’s data systems.

According to investigators, hackers had accessed cables on a variety of geopolitical issues including terrorism, transatlantic relations, peace in the Middle East, arms control, the South China Sea and the Asia and Oceania working party.

In a campaign dating back at least to 2015, the hackers gained access to more than a hundred organisations including the EU’s Coreu electronic communication network, the FT reported citing a report due to be published on Wednesday by cyber security company Area 1 Security, that exposed the breach. According to the report, Chinese hackers used the Cypriot foreign ministry as an entry point to conduct cyber espionage over several years throughout the block. Other targets included parts of the UN and the AFL-CIO, a confederation of American unions that may have been of interest to the Chinese because it was involved in trade negotiations.

The EU Council secretariat said it was “actively investigating” allegations of a “potential leak of sensitive information”. “The Council Secretariat takes the security of its facilities, including its IT systems, extremely seriously,” it added.

The revelations come as the latest embarrassment to the EU at a time of heightened concerns about the ability of groups linked to perpetual cyberwarfare bogeyman Russia and other powers to exploit weak links in its information and financial networks.

But how do we know it’s China this time and not, say, North Korea, Moscow, or some basement dwelling supporter of Julian Assange? Well, according to Oren Falkowitz, CEO of Area 1, he had “absolute confidence” that a Chinese group was behind the attacks, because of an extensive analysis of their techniques… the same way CrowdStrike had “absolute confidence” Russia hacked the DNC server without, of course, allowing the FBI to also investigate it independent. He linked the hacks to the Strategic Support Force of the People’s Liberation Army.

In a hack surprisingly reminiscent of how “the Russians” got access to John Podesta’s email, Area 1 said the hackers initially accessed the system using unsophisticated phishing techniques, sending an email with a malicious link or attachment to people inside the ministry in Cyprus.

“It only takes access to one of the parties to expose all the other secrets,” Mr Falkowitz said. “You just break the weakest link in the diplomatic chain.”

Of course, cynics may respond that this is just another convenient arrangement meant to escalate cyberwar tensions between the west and China.

The hack is the latest to involve China, whose government reached an agreement with the Obama administration in 2015 designed to curtail corporate espionage hacking companies to steal intellectual property or data, but it did not directly address more conventional cyber espionage against governments. As a trade war escalates between the US and China, the agreement is under pressure.

The thousands of hacked documents revealed concerns in the EU “about an unpredictable [President Donald] Trump administration and struggles to deal with Russia and China and the risk that Iran would revive its nuclear programme”, according to the New York Times, which also had access to the trove.

As for Cyprus being used as the entry point, that too is hardly a coincidence: the alleged use of the Mediterranean island as the “unwitting gateway” for the hack is likely to intensify some EU states’ security focus on Nicosia, after concerns about Russian money and influence there.

As the FT notes, the bloc is grappling separately to plug weaknesses in its financial supervision revealed by revelations that €200bn of suspect cash — largely from clients in Russia and other former Soviet republics — had flowed through the Estonian branch of Denmark’s Danske Bank.

end
I guess travel to China is out of the question for Canadians and Americans.  China arrested a third Canadian and he is neither a diplomat nor an entrepreneur. (And a little reminder to travelers:  if you have a flight with a stop in Beijing, i would rethink those travel plans….) And if you think we are closer to a trade deal with China guess again
(courtesy zerohedge)

China Arrests Third Canadian Citizen As Feud Worsens

That didn’t take long.

Three days after warning Canada about “escalation” and “grave consequences” amid a worsening diplomatic crisis, China has arrested a third Canadian national, according to Canada’s National Post, which cited a spokesman for Global Affairs Canada, the international arm of the Canadian government. No further details were provided, other than saying the Canadian government was “aware of a Canadian citizen” being detained.

Global Affairs diplomatically refused to connect this third arrest to the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver earlier this month. The executive, the daughter of one of China’s most successful businessmen, was released on bail last week.

Canada

According to the Straits Times, when asked about the arrest at a press briefing on Wednesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said: “I have not heard about this.”

Former diplomat Michael Kovrig and businessman Michael Spavor are both being held by Chinese authorities for “threatening National Security.”

Kovrig

The National Post noted that China and Chinese media have lashed out at Canada over the arrest of Meng. It also confirmed that the captured Canadian isn’t a diplomat or an entrepreneur.

The arrest of a third Canadian citizen could cloud relations between the two countries, which has been marred amid an ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China.

The National Post could not confirm the identity of the detained citizen. But third-party sources who said they spoke to the family of the person suggest the person is not a diplomatic official, nor an entrepreneur operating in China.

Meng has since been released on bail and is to return to court early next year for what could be an extended legal proceeding.

The Chinese government and state-run media have lashed out against Canada for the arrest, which could dampen Prime Minster Justin Trudeau’s ambitions to launch free trade talks with the country.

The Canadian government hasn’t learned much about the whereabouts or the circumstances of the detention of Kovrig and Spavor, as Beijing has refused to elaborate on the charges facing the two men (beyond threatening national security, presumably by being Canadian) and hasn’t released any information about where they are being held. But if they haven’t gotten the message already, any Canadians lingering on the Mainland should probably take the hint: Get out.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

Seems that our Italian friends have won out:  The EU has agreed with their 2.04% budgetary deficit.  The ECB will now continue with its purchase of Italian bonds as they are the only purchasers of these.  Italy gets to spend and will no doubt increase its debt to GDP

(courtesy zerohedge)

Italian Bonds, Stocks Rally As Rome Strikes Budget Deal With Brussels

The market-rattling game of chicken between Rome and Brussels has ended in a draw.

EU officials confirmed Wednesday that after a meeting in Brussels with leaders from Rome, the two sides have struck a deal on the Italian budget deficit that will allow Italy to move forward with its plans to expand welfare benefits and tax cuts while avoiding the threat of billions of euros in fines.

EU commission vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said the agreement that had been reached would lead to an expected budget deficit next year of 2.04% – a number of redundantly laughable precision – of GDP compared with 2.4% in Rome’s original plans.

The euro climbed, European bank stocks rallied and Italian bond yields moved lower after EU officials, who had been meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conti and other government officials in Brussels on Wednesday, confirmed that they would abandon their plans for an “excessive debt proceeding” against Italy, the process for officially punishing an EU member found to be in violation of the bloc’s stringent budget rules.

The FTSE MIB rallied over 1%, driven by rising shares of domestic banks (+2.9%). BTP futures surged higher, while the curve bull steepened with yields initially falling by 12bps in 2s and 5s. The euro rallied as anxieties about an ‘Italeave’ scenario faded.

MIB

Yield

Euro

However, these moves started to fade after EU bureaucrats made clear that they still have some reservations about the Italians’ spending plans. The ECB’s Ewald Nowotny said the Italian budget “is not sustainable”, and European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said Italy’s proposed 2019 budget “still raises concerns” and that the Italians “structural” budget adjust for 2019 will effectively be ‘zero’ (presumably due to the government’s decision to lower its growth forecasts from 1.5% to 1% as growth falters). Because of the country’s precarious debt burden, there is an ‘urgent’ need to set Italy on the path toward fiscal responsibility.

After the EU rejected the Italians proposed budget last month in what was an unprecedented decision that rattled the country’s markets, Italy’s ruling populist coalition decided that it would be willing to work toward a negotiated solution despite earlier claims that it would never kowtow to bureaucrats in Brussels. Earlier this month, reports suggested that the Italians would accept a deficit of 2.04% instead of 2.4% in return for the EU dropping its pursuit of financial sanctions that might have led to a banking crisis – or worse – in Europe’s third-largest economy. Dombrovskis confirmed that these were the parameters agreed to on Wednesday during a meeting of EU leaders and leaders from Rome.

Dombrovskis said he hopes that the budget will be “the basis for balanced budgetary and economic policies in Italy,” though he added that the agreement “is not ideal.” Italy “urgently needs to restore confidence in its economy to ease financial conditions and support investment.”

While the Italians have insisted that the stimulus is essential for reviving Italy’s moribund economy, Brussels has warned that the additional debt burden would only add to the country’s woes, and that Italy was “sleepwalking into instability.” Brussels said it will continue to “monitor” developments in Rome. Wednesday had initially been the deadline for Italy to either amend its budget proposal or face the formal beginning of the EDP, which would have handed Italy deadlines to either mend its finances or face fines, according to the Financial Times.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/SYRIA/USA

The USA after stating days ago that they will be in Syria for quite some time, reversed that edict as they are now preparing for a full withdrawal of forces from Syria.  Obviously they did not want to get into the cross-hairs of Turkey.  Erdogan is planning a massive invasion from the North targeting the Kurds.  Trump realizes this is going to be a quagmire so he is exiting

(courtesy zerohedge)

In Drastic Reversal, US Prepares “Full Withdrawal” Of Forces From Syria “Immediately”

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

CANADA/TORONTO

7  OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1398 UP .0027 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.35  DOWN 0.169 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2632 DOWN   0.0021  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3447  UP .0009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 27 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1398/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 27.09 POINTS OR 1.05%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 51.14 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.21% /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED  DOWN 127,53 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 51.14 POINTS OR 0.20% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.09  POINTS OR 1.05%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  0.21%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 127.53 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1247.50

silver:$14.67

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.82% !!! DOWN 0 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.07 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.84 DOWN 27 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.65% UP 2    in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.04%  UP 1  BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.38% DOWN 0  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.77 DOWN 16     POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 139 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.24%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.53% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1421 UP  .0049 or 49 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.18 DOWN  0 .340 OR 34 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2601 UP .0006( POUND UP 6  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 21 basis points to 1.3434

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.8911-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8936(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2661

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.04%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.81 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.04 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.68 DOWN 43 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 64.35 POINTS OR 0.96%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 25.32 POINTS  OR 0.24%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 23.37 POINTS OR 0.49%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 92..30 POINTS OR 1.06%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 297.05 POINTS OR 1.59%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 47.61 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 57.66 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    67.61  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .19 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 19 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.2661 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :47.20

 

BRENT :56.61

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.77%…deadly..strong indicator of recession .

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.01%/.

USA: 2 YR 2.65%

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1374 ( DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.59 UP 0.077 (YEN DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.06 DOWN 7 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2615 DOWN 40 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.2948

the Russian rouble:  67.50 down .08 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 8 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3497 DOWN 42 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8911  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9040 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.24%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 351.98 POINTS OR 1.49%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 3147.08 POINTS OR 2.17%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  24/88 CLOSED DOWN .70 ??? 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.792%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/SMALL FALL TODAY

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Powell Breaks The Market

“Everything was awesome” and then Jay Powell said…

“The balance sheet is on auto pilot, we don’t see balance sheet runoff as creating problems”

And everything broke…

Artist’s impression…

*  *  *

Overnight futures show hopeful buying –

*  *  *

Overnight futures show hopeful buying – “surely The Fed will deliver and capitulate… for goodness sake, someone has to rescue my FANG portfolio!!??” – But The Fed did not – cutting their rate outlook by a mere one hike, with plenty still seeing 3 hikes ahead in 2019…

And Futures collapsed…

 

An ugly day…

 

An ugly week so far…

 

And an ugly month…

 

Dow futures fell 910 points from its immediate post-Powell highs… (The Dow took out the Feb lows back to Oct 2017)


Banks were battered to their lowest since Nov 2016…

 

Early gains in credit markets were devastated as HY and IG blew out to new cycle wides…

 

And high yield bond prices plunged most in 8 months to the lowest since April 2016…

 

Treasury yields tumbled…

 

With 10Y below the key 2.80% level…

 

And the yield curve plunged…

 

The dollar surged back above pre-Payrolls levels…

 

Offshore yuan tumbled…

 

Cryptos also fell as the dollar gained and stocks slumped…

 

The spike in the dollar sent commodities lower…

 

But WTI managed a mechanical rebound holding gains after the fed…

 

Finally, everything is now in the red for 2018 (with Nasdaq Composite down 4%):

This is the market’s worst year since 2008, worst quarter since Q4 2008, and worst December since 1931!!

As Scott Minerd warned: “this market sell-off risks becoming a systemic problem.”

market trading

FOMC RESULTS:

FOMC Delivers ‘Not Dovish Enough’ Rate-Hike: Cuts Outlook And Future Hikes By One

The Dow is down over 10% since The Fed last hiked rates in September, with the dollar, gold, and the long-bond up around 4%…

And as stock prices have plummeted, so has the market’s expectations for how hawkish The Fed will be…

And even the odds of a hike today had tumbled (in an almost unprecedented manner)…

As financial conditions have tightened dramatically since The Fed hiked in September…

And The Fed is entirely decoupled from the market’s view of the rate trajectory…

The economic data have been pretty strong, with the unemployment rate at a 48-year low and GDP this quarter tracking about 3%, according to the Atlanta Fed. On the other hand, stocks this week slumped to a 14-month low – not that’s not in The Fed’s mandate, right?

*  *  *

So with that background, and expectations of a dovish hike established, here is the decision:

  • *FED RAISES RATES, SIGNALS TWO 2019 HIKES VS THREE IN SEPT. EST.
  • *FED ‘JUDGES THAT SOME FURTHER GRADUAL INCREASES’ WARRANTED
  • *FED: RISKS ‘ARE ROUGHLY BALANCED,’ MONITORING GLOBAL EVENTS

So a dovish hike – but not as dovish as expected…

The Fed was very non-committal to the “data-dependence” language relative to what was hoped for:

“[Fed] will continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook.”

*  *  *

Bespoke Investment Group notes that Fed hikes have often been a “sell the news” event during this tightening cycle.

The S&P 500 Index “has typically rallied throughout the trading day leading up to the 2 p.m. hike, and then we see an initial spike just after the news is announced,” analysts write.

“We then have seen sellers come in to take the index back down to pre-2 p.m. levels, another round of buying, and then a final round of big selling into the close.”

*  *  *

Full Redline below:

end

Here is what they are saying;

 

Wall Street Reacts To A “Hawkish” Fed: “I Think People Are Scared”

After a kneejerk reaction modestly higher, stocks have not only pared all their gains but are now at session lows following a Fed statement, and Powell press conference, that were both far more hawkish than expected. Below are some preliminary reactions from Wall Street strategists where the prevailing sentiment is “disappointing”, “not super dovish”, and “this will be seen as hawkish.”

Jeffrey Rosenberg, chief fixed income strategist for BlackRock: “The dots were a little bit disappointing”

  • “The most important thing is the dots. The dots met market expectations. A little bit of a disappointment in not seeing bigger reduction in terms of further gradual increases, just the introduction of some in there to soften it, there was bigger expectations there, but I think that’s minor relative to the dots. I think you got the dovish hike.”

Greg Staples, co-head of fixed income at DWS: “Fed dots show significant group still see 3 hikes for ’19: “

  • Even the downward revision in the FOMC’s rate projections has a hawkish tilt, said Greg Staples, co-head of Americas fixed income at DWS. Discussing the dot plot, he observed that while the median dot has dropped to imply two hikes in 2019, “there’s still a significant cadre within the Fed that thinks that three hikes will still be in the cards”
  • “The Fed is indicating that it’s listening to the markets, it has respect for the markets, but it’s not going to be ruled by the markets”; Staples sees potential for the curve to steepen somewhat, led by a decline in short-end yields.

Daniel Katzive, head of FX at BNP: “Hikes wasn’t super dovish”

  • The dollar’s rally on the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates was, in part, because the hike wasn’t “super-dovish”
  • “You avoided the super-dovish scenario and you got what the market was expecting,” Katzive told Bloomberg
  • The BNP strategist expects Jay Powell to “heavily emphasize” data-dependence at press conference; expects 1Q economic data will be good enough for another Fed hike, which he says implies that the dollar will hold up “pretty well”

Scott Minerd, CIO at Guggenheim Partners: “I think people are scared”

  • “We’re looking at a world where markets have gotten so spoon-fed for so long that any big change in anything upsets them. The interesting thing is the volatility around financial assets is introducing another element of risk that I don’t think any of us anticipated to happen right now. I think people are scared.”

Dennis Debusschere, head of portfolio strategy at Evercore ISI:“Investors will view this as hawkish”

  • “10-0 vote on the hike, that sends a strong signal to Trump, potentially. Given we know some doves have been calling for a pause. They signaled two instead of three hikes in 2019 and kept the gradual increase language in, which investors will view as hawkish.”

Bob Baur, chief economist at Principal Global Investors:“Volatility will remain”

  • “I think the Fed may be underestimating other factors at play. Trade has been making headlines, but I think a gradual tightening of monetary policy has been the driving force behind recent market volatility. With corporate borrowing and spending still high, and the Fed continuing to reduce its balance sheet, I’d expect volatility to remain if this tightening continues.”

Mike Loewengart, VP of investment strategy for E*Trade: “We’re now in some uncharted territory”

  • “This hike is a vote of confidence in our economy for 2018, but essentially that’s a wrap, and we’re now in some uncharted territory as 2019 comes into focus. To be honest this bull run has been pretty long in the tooth and the pullback should not have been too much of a surprise. But moving forward we’re seeing a fair amount of pitfalls that could turn the economy south: Slowing global growth, a ballooning deficit, faltering bond market punctuated by higher borrowing costs, trade disputes, and a fragile housing market just to name a few.”

Zhiwei Ren, Penn Mutual Asset Management: “Market is much more dovisih than the dot plot”

  • “The market is pricing a much more dovish Fed than the dot plot is. It’s showing two more hikes next year — that’s different. The market is billions of dollars of capital being allocated. The dot plot is just several Fed governors, their personal opinion, with no money on the line. Talk is easy, money is worth more, in my opinion. In the past several years, that’s what happened — the dot plot converged to market pricing.”

Max Gokhman, head of asset allocation for Pacific Life: “Exactly what we expected”

  • “It’s exactly what we expected. We thought the dot plot would be revised to two hikes and the statement language would be softened. We did think that ‘data dependency’ would emerge in some form, but instead the statement left its forward guidance as implying that there’s room for further increases. That’s about the only thing that could have made this the most dovish hike of 2018. Also, in my opinion there was ample rationale for the Fed to skip December’s hike and resume in March — but ironically the President pressuring the Fed so publicly took that option out.”

Finally, the one reaction that everyone is looking for – and matters the most – is that of Trump, who can’t be too happy that the Fed has defied him.

GreekFire23@GreekFire23

For some reason I keep envisioning Trump walking into this presser and saying “Jay, you’re fired. I’m sorry, you’re fired.”

Then going to the podium and saying “Jay is a great person, has a beautiful wife, very smart man, but I will find someone who is going to do a great job.”

end

And  now how the USA reacted to the Fed:

Stocks Are Crashing – Dow Dumps 900 Points, Banks Battered

market data/

Hard data continues to point that the uSA economy as well as the global economy is contracting.  Today existing home sales tumble 7% year/year.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Existing Home Sales Tumble 7% Year-Over-Year – Biggest Plunge Since 2011

Pending and New home sales both tumbled in October, but existing home sales managed a modest SAAR bounce; and while expectations were for some give-back in November, existing home sales managed an upside surprise – rising 1.9% MoM. However, that is the end of the good news.

After a modest bounce in mortgage applications (as rates dropped), they tumbled 5.8% last week (among the worst drops this year) with purchases plunging 6.8%, and that is reflected in the

Year-over-year, existing home sales are down 7% – the biggest drop since 2011 (and this is the slowest sales pace for November in four years)…

 

This data does nothing to rescue the US housing market from its most disappointing year ever…

But The Fed should probably raise rates… just to be safe right?

end

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Graham Summers points out that the entire global system is contracting. All you need to see is the price of oil falling, the price of copper falling and the 10 year USA bond falling in yield. On top of that Bellwether Fed ex just reported lousy earnings and told that future earnings will be waning

(courtesy Graham Summers)

SWAMP STORIES

A good one:  a good analysis of James Comey’s conflicted testimony

(courtesy zerohedge)

Here’s What Newly-Diagnosed Amnesiac James Comey “Did Not Recall” On Day 2 Of Testimony

Former FBI Director James Comey appeared December 17th, 2018, for a second round of questions by a joint House committee oversight probe into the DOJ and FBI conduct during the 2016 presidential election and incoming Trump administration.

The Joint House Committee just released the transcript online (full pdf below).

Director Blue blog’s Doug Ross read through most of the septic backflow so you don’t need to. You’re welcome:

1. Double Standard: Obama vs. Trump

Trey Gowdy grilled Comey on his vastly different handling of comments by Trump and Obama. When Trump asked Comey whether he could see his way clear to easing up on Flynn, Comey memorialized the conversation in a memo and distributed it to his leadership team, including Andrew McCabe and James Baker.

However, when President Obama on 60 Minutes publicly exonerated Hillary Clinton’s mishandling of classified information — setting the stage for true obstruction of justice — Comey did nothing. He never talked to the president about potential obstruction, he never memorialized his observations, and he didn’t leak anything to the press. These were all things he did with Trump.

He might call it a “higher loyalty”, but it looks to us peons like a true double-standard. Democrats get Wall Street Bankster treatment, while the rabble get tossed in the slammer.

2. According to Comey, Flynn had no right to counsel

This is interesting:

Mr. Gowdy. Did Mr. Flynn have the right to have counsel present during that interview?

Mr. Comey. No.

Oooooooookay.

3. Comey confirmed McCabe called Flynn to initiate “entrapment”; contradicts himself on counsel

And:

Mr. Gowdy. Why not advise General Flynn of the consequences of making false statements to the FBI?

Mr. Comey. …the Deputy Director [McCabe] called him, told him what the subject matter was, told him he was welcome to have a representative from White House Counsel there…

So Comey is saying that Flynn didn’t have the right to counsel (item 2), and then states that he does have the right to a White House counsel attending the meeting.

The lies are getting harder and harder to keep straight with this egregious individual.

4. Comey lied about McCabe’s conversation with Flynn

When asked whether McCabe was trying to set Flynn up by asserting no counsel was needed in the interview, Comey claimed he was unaware of that critical fact. But McCabe, in a written memo, asserted that he told Flynn, “[i]f you have a lawyer present, we’ll need to involve the Department of Justice”.

In other words, McCabe was trying to ensure Flynn had no counsel present during the interview.

5. Comey still falls back on the Logan Act scam to justify his actions

Yes, the Logan Act. When former secretary of state John Kerry meets with various Mullahs while President Trump is unwinding the disastrous Iran deal, there’s no crime there!

But let Flynn, a member of the Trump transition team, have a perfectly legitimate conversation with a Russian diplomat, we get:

Mr. Comey. And I hesitate only with “wrong.” I think a Department of Justice prosecutor might say, on its face, it was problematic under the Logan Act because of private citizens negotiating and all that business.

What a lying sack of gumbo. At the time, Flynn was not a private citizen. He was a member of the incoming administration, and had anyone bothered to prosecute prior transitions for similar “crimes”, the entire Obama and Clinton posses would be breaking rocks at Leavenworth.

6. Comey Throws James Clapper Under the Bus

When asked by Jim Jordan about his private meeting with the President to brief him on a very tiny portion of the “salacious and unverified” (Comey’s words under oath) dossier, Comey claimed ODNI James Clapper had orchestrated the entire fiasco.

Mr. Comey. …ultimately, it was Clapper’s call. I agreed — we agreed that it made sense for me to do it and to do it privately, separately. So I don’t want to make it sound like I was ordered to do it.

He wasn’t ordered to do it, but it was Clapper’s call.

Oooooooookay.

7. Jordan Torches Comey Over His Dossier Comments

I’ll just leave this here. Comey may need to put some ice on that.

Mr. Jordan. So that’s what I’m not understanding, is you felt this was so important that it required a private session with you and the President-elect, you only spoke of the salacious part of the dossier, but yet you also say there’s no way any good reporter would print this. But you felt it was still critical that you had to talk to the President-elect about it. And I would argue you created the very news hook that you said you were concerned about…

…it’s so inflammatory that reporters would ‘get killed’ for reporting it, why was it so important to tell the President? Particularly when you weren’t going to tell him the rest of the dossier — about the rest of the dossier?

8. Comey Concealed Critical National Security Concerns About Flynn From the President

This is quite unbelievable: in a private dinner with the president, Comey neglected to mention that just three days earlier he had directed the interview of Trump’s ostensible National Security Advisor.

Mr. Comey. …at no time during the dinner was there a reference, allusion, mention by either of
us about the FBI having contact with General Flynn or being interested in General Flynn investigatively.

Mr. Jordan. That was what I wanted to know. So this is not just referring to the President didn’t bring it up. You didn’t bring it up either.

Mr. Comey. Correct, neither of us brought it up or alluded to it.

Mr. Jordan. Why not? He’s talking about General Flynn. You had just interviewed him 3 days earlier and discovered that he was lying to the Vice President, knew he was lying to the Vice President, and, based on what we’ve heard of late, that he lied tyour agents. Why not tell his boss, why not tell the head of the executive branch, why not tell the President of the United States, “Hey, your National Security Advisor just lied to us 3 days ago”?

Mr. Comey. Because we had an open investigation, and there would be no reason or a need to tell the President about it.

Mr. Jordan. Really?

Mr. Comey. Really.

Mr. Jordan. You wouldn’t tell the President of the United States that his National Security Advisor wasn’t being square with the FBI? … I mean, but this is not just any investigation, it seems to me, Director. This is a top advisor to the Commander in Chief. And you guys, based on what we’ve heard, felt that he wasn’t being honest with the Vice President and wasn’t honest with two of your agents. And just 3 days later, you’re meeting with the President, and, oh, by the way, the conversation is about General Flynn. And you don’t tell the President anything?

Mr. Comey. I did not.

Mr. Meadows. So, Director Comey, let me make sure I understand this. You were so concerned that Michael Flynn may have lied or did lie to the Vice President of the United States, but that once you got that confirmed, that he had told a falsehood, you didn’t believe that it was appropriate to tell the President of the United States that there was no national security risk where you would actually convey that to the President of the United States? Is that your testimony?

Mr. Comey. That is correct. We had an —

The more we learn, the dirtier a cop Comey ends up appearing.

9. Gowdy Destroys the Double Standard of Clinton vs. Flynn

Check this out:

Mr. Gowdy. …we are going to contrast the decision to not allow Michael Flynn to have an attorney, or discourage him from having one, with allowing some other folks the Bureau interviewed to have multiple attorneys in the room, including fact witnesses. Can you see the dichotomy there, or is that an unreasonable comparison?

Mr. Comey. I’m not going to comment on that. I remember you asking me questions about that last week. I’m happy to answer them again.

Mr. Gowdy. You will not say whether or not it is an unreasonable comparison to compare allowing multiple attorneys, who are also fact witnesses, to be present during an interview but discouraging another person from having counsel present?

Mr. Comey. I’m not going to answer that in a vacuum…

10. Comey May Have Been Involved With the Infamous Tarmac Meeting

Another interesting vignette, this time from John Ratcliffe:

Mr. Ratcliffe. Okay. So it would appear from this that there had been some type of briefing the day before, with reference to yesterday, June 27, 2016, where you had requested a copy of emails between President Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Mr. Comey. I see that it says that.

Mr. Ratcliffe. …The significance of that is, as we talked about last time, June 27th of 2016 was also the date that Attorney General Lynch and former President Bill Clinton met on a tarmac in Phoenix, Arizona. Do you recall whether or not this briefing was held at the FBI because of that tarmac meeting, or was it just happened to be a coincidence that it was held on that day? Mr. Comey. It would have to have been a coincidence. I don’t remember a meeting in response to the tarmac meeting.

Muh don’t know!

11. Comey confirms Obama knew Hillary Clinton was using a compromised, insecure email server

Well, spank me on the fanny and call me Nancy!

Mr. Ratcliffe. …Hillary Rodham Clinton and President Obama were communicating via email through an unsecure, unclassified server?

Mr. Comey. Yes, they were between her Clinton email.com account and his — I don’t know where his account, his unclassified account, was maintained. So I’m sorry. So, yes, here were communications unclassified between two accounts, hers and then his cover account.

Mr. Ratcliffe. …Did your review of these emails or the content of these emails impact your decision to edit out a reference to President Obama in your July 5th, 2016, press conference remarks?

If Trump had done 1/1,000,000th of this crap, he’d be — yes — breaking rocks in Leavenworth right now.

But there’s no double-standard, rabble! Just keep buying iPhones and playing Call of Duty!

…Aaaaaaaaand I’m spent.

Okay, done for now.

But let’s recap the activities of Dr. “Higher Loyalty” Comey:

  • Did not investigate the felony leak to the press of the conversation between the Russian Ambassador and Flynn.
  • Did not advise Congress of the “investigation” into Trump-Russia collusion as required by statute.
  • Lied to the FISA court — another felony — about Carter Page being “an agent of a foreign power”.
  • Wrote an exoneration memo for Hillary Clinton before more than a dozen witnesses, including Clinton herself, had been interviewed.

But, no, there’s no double-standard for the aggressiveness of law enforcement when it comes to Democrats like Clinton and Obama.

Hat tip: BadBlue Uncensored News.

 

END
They agree on a stopgap funding bill to keep the government open and Trump does not get funding for his wall
(courtesy zerohedge)

Congress Agrees On Stopgap Funding Bill To Keep Govt Open Until Feb 8

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced Wednesday that he will introduce a stopgap spending bill to keep the government open until February 8, after Democrats pushed back on Tuesday against a proposal which would allocate $1 billion to President Trump’s immigration policies.

The measure, which Sen. Chuck Schumer says Democrats will back, will prevent a partial government shutdown set to begin Saturday. According to The Hill, McConnell’s proposal will keep funding for border fencing flat.

The White House had previously backed down on a demand for $5 billion in funding for President Trump’s wall, with Press Secretary Sarah Sanders claiming “We have other ways that we can get to that $5 billion.”

“At the end of the day we don’t want to shut down the government, we want to shut down the border,” she added.

On Wednesday, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said that Trump appears to have backed down on his wall demand – just one day after the New York Democrat said “They need congressional approval – they’re not getting it for the wall, plain and simple.” 

Earlier Wednesday President Trump tweeted: “In our Country, so much money has been poured down the drain, for so many years, but when it comes to Border Security and the Military, the Democrats fight to the death. We won on the Military, which is being completely rebuilt. One way or the other, we will win on the Wall!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

In our Country, so much money has been poured down the drain, for so many years, but when it comes to Border Security and the Military, the Democrats fight to the death. We won on the Military, which is being completely rebuilt. One way or the other, we will win on the Wall!

The details of McConnell’s stopgap proposal will be released later Wednesday.

end
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
AND SPECIAL THANKS TO CHRIS POWELL OF GATA FOR SENDING THIS TO US:
Reporter Who Met with Christopher Steele Now Doubts the Infamous Dossier
  • Michael Isikoff, the journalist who was first to report allegations from the Steele dossier, said in a new interview that many of the salacious allegations in the document are “likely false.”
  • “All the signs to me are that Mueller is reaching his end game, and we may see less than many people want him to find,” Isikoff said in a December interview.
  • Isikoff met with dossier author Christopher Steele during the 2016 campaign and published a report alleging that Trump aide Carter Page had secret meetings in Moscow with two Kremlin insiders…    https://dailycaller.com/2018/12/17/michael-isikoff-steele-dossier/
@realDonaldTrump: Russia Dossier reporter now doubts dopey Christopher Steele’s claims! “When you get into the details of the Steele Dossier, the specific allegations, we have not seen the evidence to support them. There’s good grounds to think that some of the more sensational allegations WILL NEVER BE PROVEN AND ARE LIKELY FALSE.”  Thank you to Michael Isikoff, Yahoo, for honesty. What this means is that the FISA WARRANTS and the whole Russian Witch Hunt is a Fraud and a Hoax which should be ended immediately. Also, it was paid for by Crooked Hillary & DNC!
@SaraCarterDC: Mike Flynn sentencing postponed indefinitely with an update on March 13, 2019. Judge Sullivan has more questions about Special Counsel’s and FBI conduct
@KimStrassel: That Judge Sullivan asked Flynn if he wanted to withdraw his plea meansJudge was at least open to the idea of gov. misconduct. But once Flynn said no, Sullivan really had nowhere to go. Flynn’s decision to stick w/ this deal is still separate from question of gov actions.
@dsamuelsohn: Judge Sullivan [to Flynn]: “All along you were an unregistered agent of a foreign country while serving as the national security adviser of the president of the United States. … Arguably that undermines everything that flag over here stands for. Arguably, you sold your country out.”
Jonathan Turley: Judge surprises Flynn at sentencing hearing – Here’s what to expect next
Sullivan began the sentencing hearing by expressing his concern over the way Flynn was interviewed without counsel by the FBI
    The judge cited Flynn’s lobbying on behalf of Turkey as an aggravating factor he was considering in sentencing… various figures like Democratic powerhouse Tony Podesta(brother of Hillary Clinton campaign chair John Podesta) filed the same retroactive declaration under the Foreign Agents Registration Act involving the same underlying work for the same country…
Some legal eagles believe Judge Sullivan threated Flynn with considerable jail time after Team Mueller recommended leniency to get Flynn to withdraw his guilty plea and speak about FBI/Mueller tactics.
@Barnes_Law: They had to engineer a case against @GenFlynn in order to justify their attack on @realDonaldTrump due to the perceived connection to the firing of @Comey
Former Prosecutor: My Colleagues Coerce Innocent People – Like Flynn – To Plead Guilty Every Day – This horrific injustice is solely attributable to the unchecked power of prosecutors who now function as prosecutor, judge, jury, and executioner. They have unfettered discretion, no supervision, no limits, and most federal judges defer to them at every turn…
The beating you take with a guilty plea is less than the beating you take if you — like Paul Manafort — dare to fight, find yourself in the literal torture of solitary confinement, and have your friends, family, and business associates harassed, threatened, and indicted.Prosecutions in Mueller’s and Weissmann’s prior inquisitions have extended 10 years. Several defendants pleaded guilty upon threat of facing their third trial…
One of Weissmann’s favorite tactics is to threaten to indict the target’s wife and children. He sent Andrew Fastow’s wife to prison on tax charges. They had two small children. Fastow decided to “compose.”… Prosecutors withhold evidence of innocence, they destroy evidence, and they have absolute immunity. This must change now…  https://dailycaller.com/2018/12/17/prosecutors-michael-flynn/
There are much more important issues in the USA than Fed rate hikes, taxes, climate change, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. 
@AP: Trump Foundation reaches deal to dissolve amid lawsuit with New York’s attorney general
end
Let us close out Wednesday with this offering courtesy of Peter Schiff and Greg Hunter

Fed Already Insolvent & Will Only Get Worse – Peter Schiff

By Greg Hunter On December 19, 2018 In Market Analysis

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Money manager Peter Schiff is not surprised the stock market is way off its highs for the year. Schiff explains, “The crazy part was the markets going up. What makes sense is it coming back down. The Fed was really playing a game of how many straws it could put on the camel’s back before it breaks it. Each time they raised interest rates, it was another straw. I postulated on one of my podcasts that the last rate hike that the Fed put through was the rate hike that would break the camel’s back. The camel being the markets and the economy, and I think that’s exactly what happened.”

Schiff says the Fed is very weak and is going to have a hard time fighting inflation when it hits. Schiff contends, “In fact, right now, the Fed’s liabilities exceed its assets because, on paper, the assets have gone down. So, the Fed, right now, is already insolvent, and the degree of insolvency is only going to increase as inflation and interest rates rise higher.”

Schiff warns, “The next crisis is not just going to be financial crisis. It is going to be a currency crisis, a U.S. dollar crisis, which is going to be a lot worse. Unfortunately, from that crisis, there are no bailouts. In the financial crisis, they sacrificed the dollar. They printed a bunch of money (in order to bail us out). If you have a dollar crisis, you can’t do that. If you have a dollar crisis, you have to shrink money supply. You have to defend your currency by raising interest rates. That means the stock market crashes. That means the bond market crashes. That means the real estate market crashes. That means a lot of people lose a lot of money. There’s a lot of bankruptcies and a lot of defaults. Then, the government has to come clean and tell people on Social Security we can’t pay you. It has to tell people on Medicare we can’t pay. They have to tell government retirees we can’t pay these pensions. In fact, they have to tell holders of U.S. Treasuries we can’t repay. . . . That’s what’s going to have to happen in a dollar crisis. . . . Look, we’re broke. We have over-promised on every level. . . . No politician wanted to raise taxes to fund their obligations, but they still wanted to make promises to get reelected. The benefits are not going to get paid. The only question is how will the default occur? Will it be honestly, where the government says we are not going to pay? Or will it be dishonestly, where you get paid your money and your money doesn’t buy you anything? Either way, the pensions are no good.”

Schiff predicts, “Americans are going to be impoverished on a national scale.”

So, what is Schiff telling his clients to protect their wealth? Schiff says, “You’ve got to get money out of the U.S. dollar, out of U.S. bonds, out of U.S. stocks . . . which is what I am doing for my clients. I am creating portfolios of dividend paying stocks in countries that have much sounder economies where there are much sounder currencies, where the people are saving and they have balanced budgets. . . . I am telling people to take advantage of how inexpensive gold and silver are and some of the mining stocks. . . .I not only think I am going to help people preserve their wealth, I think I am going to help people enhance their wealth. . . . I think gold and silver are incredibly mispriced because it really reflects the excess confidence that people have in central banks and fiat currency. They should have no confidence, but they do. . . . I don’t tell people to put their entire net worth into gold, I tell them 5% to 10%. Most people have no money in gold. Those people are going to be very unfortunate. . . . Just like a family cannot live on debt forever, and you just can’t keep on borrowing money indefinitely, you are going to have a day of reckoning. The same thing applies to a nation. We cannot do collectively what we each can’t do individually. Our day of reckoning is coming, and it’s coming soon. It’s a done deal, it’s going to happen. All you can do is save yourself and family.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Peter Schiff, founder of Euro Pacific Capital and Schiff Gold.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/fed-already-insolvent-will- only-get-worse-peter-schiff/#more-21262

-END-

I WILL SEE YOU ON THURSDAY
H
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