DEC 18/MARKETS EXTREMELY VOLATILE/DOW FINISHES UP 82 POINTS AFTER BEING UP 300 PLUS POINTS/AFTER HRS FED EX CRASHES WITH LOWER EARNINGS AND EXPECTATIONS/GOLD FINISHES UP $1.50 TO $1249.50/SILVER IS DOWN 4 CENTS TO $14.65/CHINA REFUSES TO DO MORE STIMULI AND ALSO STATES THAT IT WILL NOT BE BULLIED BY ANYONE!!/THE CLOWNS CONTINUE THEIR ANTICS WITH TRUMP’S WALL/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1249.50 UP $1.50 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.65 DOWN 4 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1249.75

 

silver: $14.65

 

Again, Goldman Sachs takes 75% of the issued gold contracts.

 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2018 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,247.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/17/2018 DELIVERY DATE: 12/19/2018
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 3 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 3
MONTH TO DATE: 7,276

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

DEC

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 300 OZ (0.009 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7276 NOTICES FOR 727600 OZ  (22.630 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DECEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

14 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  70,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3913 for 19,565,000 oz

filed late Saturday

total number of notices filed for Monday:  for nil

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3913 for 19,565,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $3495:  down 15

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3516  up 2.00 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 365 CONTRACTS FROM 173,574 DOWN TO 173,209 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S CONSIDERABLE 13 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 20 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

1550 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1550 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1550 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1550 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.75 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 13 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

NOW 20.730 INITIALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC: 21,273 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 21,273 CONTRACTS) OR 106.365 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1772 CONTRACTS OR 8.863 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  106.365 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 15.18% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,783.43    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR NOVEMBER /2018:                                 247.18         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 365 DESPITE THE  CONSIDERABLE 13 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY.. AS THE BOYS CONTINUE WITH THEIR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OVER TO  ETFS AT THE START OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1550 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED: 1185 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1550 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 365 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 13 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.69 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .875 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 125% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 14 NOTICES FOR 70,000 OZ AND THEN 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./AND NOW DEC. AT 21.100 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 10,546 CONTRACTS UP TO 408,234 WITH THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $10.60//.YESTERDAY’S TRADING) 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 7213 CONTRACTS:

 

DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 7213 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 408,234. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,759 CONTRACTS:  10,546 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7213 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 17,759 CONTRACTS OR 1,775,900 OZ = 55.23 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $10.60???

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 10,219 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 103,179 CONTRACTS OR 10,317,900 OZ OR 320.90 TONNES (12 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8598 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 320.90 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 320.90/2550 x 100% TONNES = 12.58% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     7091.89  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018:                        552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 10,546 WITH THE GAIN  IN PRICING ($10.60) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7213 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7213 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 17,759 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7213 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 10,546 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 55.23 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $10.60 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??

 

 

we had: 3 notice(s) filed upon for 300 oz of gold at the comex.

FILED LATE

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY

 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   763.56 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 763.56 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS  TODAY:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 365 CONTRACTS from 173,574 DOWN TO 173,209  AND MOVING FURTHER FROM  THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

1550 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1550 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 365 CONTRACTS TO THE 1550 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN  OF 1185 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6.38 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. AND NOW 21.100 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 13 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 1550 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 21.32 POINTS OR 0.82% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 273.73 POINTS OR 1.05% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 391.43 OR 1.82%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.24%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8948 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 48.44 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.17 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8948AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8911: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)Chinese and European stocks slide as Xi speech disappoints: no mention of stimulus to get their economy going.  He points to the fact that China may face unimaginable difficulties

( zerohedge)

ii)Also Xi declares that “no one can dictate reforms to China.  That statement was meant for the uSA

(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

ITALY

Supposedly the EU has accepted the Italian budget proposal with a projected deficit of 2.04%

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

An excellent commentary from Tom Luongo explaining how Turkey forged alliances with China and Russia and how that turned the corner for them

a must read..

( Tom Luongo)

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)CANADA/TORONTO

With the oil sector in disarray, we find that finally Toronto home prices are falling.  Actually not just falling but plunging at a rate not seen since 1996

( zerohedge)

ii)Malaysia/Goldman Sachs

The crooked squid in action:  how Goldman partners ignored (on purpose_ red flags while pursuing the 1MDB deal
( zerohedge)
iii)Asian Hedge Fund/Citibank
This is just the beginning as Citibank is set to lose 180 million dollar loss on a loan to an Asian Hedge Fund. As zero hedge commented:
It’s not just hedge funds that are blowing up left and right: so are the banks that are lending them money.
( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

A good look at the USA oil picture now that oil flash crashed to below 50 dollars .

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)Venezuela

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

Mining companies are reluctant to join in the class action lawsuits due to the fact that the banks offer financing for their mines.  With respect to government intervention, miners are afraid that they will not get their permits.
( Chris Powell/GATA)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

i)After years of high frequency trading, Mnuchin now blames the stock market collapses on it.  What a bozo!

( zerohedge)

ii)This time the algos refuse to push the market higher on the latest Mnuchin China trade headlines. So it looks like Mnuchin was sent my Trump to increase the Dow and it failed.

( zerohedge)

iii)My two favourite Bellwether stocks are Caterpillar and Fed Ex as they give such a good barometer as to what is going on in the global economy.
For Fed ex to announce before Christmas is truly something.  They have slashed their profit outlook as well as an international capacity reduction.  As what we have pounded the table to you:  the global slowdown is fierce! Check to Mr Jerome Powell of the Fed..your move!
(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)Market data/

A little rebound in housing starts and permits but still 2018 has been an awful year on record for this important industry and a key component of GDP

( zerohedge)

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Trump blasts Powell to feel the market as he pleads not to raise rates as the FOMC meeting begins today and ends tomorrow

( zerohedge)

b)Interesting;  Las Vegas home price in the previous couple of years rose at a much higher pace than the national average.  Now, thousands of Las Vegas homes received zero offers in November

( zerohedge)

c)if this is implemented it would be the kiss of death for pharmacies in the USA.  These guys make their money on deals given to purchases of generic drugs.  They lose on the innovative drugs. The high rents and other high operating costs would knock them over the edge.

( Politicopro.com)
and a special thanks to Dani Peters for supplying this commentary to us.

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Trump does not believe he will get anywhere with China so he is moving ahead with a second farm bailout

(courtesy zerohedge

b)Christopher Steele now admits in a court document that he was fired for the sole purchase of challenging the validity of the 2016 election
( zerohedge)

c)Trump outraged that Mueller et friends scrubbed 19,000 Strzok/Page emails that would have showed extreme bias

(courtesy zerohedge)

d)not a good day for Flynn:  his sentencing is delayed until he completes his cooperation with the authorities( zerohedge

e)Trump blinks to avoid the shutdown: he will find other ways to fund the 5 billion dollars for th wall.

(courtesy zerohedge)

f)The clowns are at it again!! The Democrats have balked at a GOP offer of 1.6 billion dillars for border security and an additional one billion dollars in flexible funding for trump’s immigration policies..ie. a slush fund.

Schumer wants no part of the wall!!
(courtesy zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 10,546 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 408,234 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($10.60) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7213 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR DECEMBER:  7213 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7213 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  17,759 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7213 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 10,546 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 17,759 contracts OR 1,775,900 OZ OR 55.23 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of December and we now have a total of 407 contracts stand in December so we had a loss of 11 contracts.  We had 12 notices served yesterday, so we gained  1 contracts or 100 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next delivery month after December is January which saw it FALL TO 2522 FOR A LOSS OF 74 CONTRACTS.  February GAINED A CONSIDERABLE 8917 contracts to stand at 302,345 contracts

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

 

 

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR NIL OZ. (0.037 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI fell BY 365 CONTRACTS FROM 173,574 DOWN TO 173,209 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 13 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 1550 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 1550 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1550.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1185 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  365 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1550 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   1185 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 13 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of DECEMBER and here in this front month of December we now have 291 contracts standing for a GAIN of 10 contracts.  We had 30 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we gained 40 contracts or an additional 200,000 oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

After  December we have the non active  January contract month and here we saw a LOSS of 53 contracts up to 1778 contracts.  February saw its another 9 contract gain to stand at 121. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a LOSS of 276 contracts down to 142,255

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the DEC, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

(14 NOTICES FOR 70,000 OZ WAS FILED LATE SATURDAY)

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 105,269 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  176,995  contracts

volumes at the comex for both gold and silver are much less than usual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 18-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
160.755
oz
Brinks
5 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
3 notice(s)
 300 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
404 contracts
(40400 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7276 notices
727600 OZ
22.630 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  nil oz

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:

160.755 oz was withdrawn out of Brinks  (5 kilobars)

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  160.755 oz

 

we had 0  adjustments….

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 2 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7276) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (407 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz per contract) equals 766,800 OZ OR 23.850 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (7276 x 100 oz)  + {404)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 766,800 oz standing OR 23.850 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DECEMBER.

WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR 100 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 22.417 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 23.850 TONNES STANDING FOR DECEMBER

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  720,731.855 oz or   22.417 tonnes*
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,338,693.721 oz 259.368 tonnes
*however we have 22.622 tonnes of gold ALREADY SERVED UPON against dealer inventory of 22.417 tonnes and so far we have had no settlements  as of yet.  We generally get a settlement when we see an adjustment from the dealer side to the customer side..
we have a total of 23.850 tonnes of gold standing for metal against only 22.417 tonnes of dealer gold and .182 tonnes has been settled so far…(Dec 17)

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 95 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

DEC INITIAL standings/SILVER

DEC 18, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,621,011.826 oz
Delaware
Brinks
CNT
HSBC
JPM

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
14
CONTRACT(S)
70,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
291 contracts
1,455,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3913 contracts

(19,565,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.55 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.03% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: nil  oz

we had 5 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of Delaware: 20,210.600 oz
ii) Out of Brinks:  240,419.009 oz
iii)Out of CNT: 35,345.467 oz
iv) Out of HSBC: 122,113.810 oz
v) Out of JPM:  1,202,922.940 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,621,011.826   oz

 

we had 1 adjustments and this is what I look for in settlements..we got it in silver but not in gold yet.

i) Out of CNT 6,993,701.009 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into  the customer account of CNT

and this would be deemed a settlement

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.489 million

total dealer + customer silver:  296.466  million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2018. contract month is represented by 14 contract(s) FOR 70,000  oz AND THEN 0 FOR NIL OZ. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3913 x 5,000 oz = 19,565,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (291) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2018 contract month: 3913(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC( 291) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 21,100,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 40 contracts or 200,000 additional oz will stand and these guys refused to accept a London based forward as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus. The EFP route is nothing but a cash settlement process and it is done in London to avoid detection. It is becoming quite obvious that the bankers are in urgent need of silver as we witness the constant queue jumping in silver these past 20 months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  24,231 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 44,869 CONTRACTS… 

volumes at the comex are contracting badly.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 44,869 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 224 million OZ  32% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.83-% (DEC 18/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.59% to NAV (DEC 18 /2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.83%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.57/TRADING 12.05/DISCOUNT 4.14

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.35/A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 26/WITH GOLD DOWN 65 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

 

NOV 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 17.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 763.56 tonnes

*IN LAST 518 TRADING DAYS: 171.60 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 418 TRADING DAYS: A NET 11.60 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

NOV 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ

NOV 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

 

 

DEC 18/2018:

 

Inventory 318.735 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.46/ and libor 6 month duration 2.91

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .45

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.71%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.11

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.40

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

Gold Fl

 

 
END
 
ii) GATA stories
Mining companies are reluctant to join in the class action lawsuits due to the fact that the banks offer financing for their mines.  With respect to government intervention, miners are afraid that they will not get their permits.
(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

Will gold and silver miners join the lawsuits against JPMorganChase?

 Section: 

9:50p ET Monday, December 17, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Are gold and silver mining companies joining the class-action lawsuits being filed against investment bank JPMorganChase because of the confession by a former futures trader for the bank who has pleaded guilty to manipulating the monetary metals markets?:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/jp-morgan-faces-lawsuits-after-guilty-pl…

While gold and silver mining investors are asking that question, GATA has seen no evidence that their companies are joining the lawsuits against JPMorganCase.

Of course few gold and silver mining companies have ever expressed interest in the market manipulation issue to begin with, even though GATA has been documenting manipulation for 20 years and two years ago another investment bank, Deutschebank, settled similar gold and silver market rigging lawsuits by offering $100 million in damage payments and providing evidence against other market riggers:

http://www.gata.org/node/16380

It’s not clear whether gold and silver mining companies would qualify as participants in the lawsuits. Such lawsuits have been construed to be open only to those who traded gold and silver futures contracts during specified periods. But gold and silver mining companies, especially producing companies, sometimes trade futures to hedge their production and other financial obligations, so they might qualify.

Still, gold and silver mining companies might be too scared to join the lawsuits, since, while they are silent on market manipulation, they may know about it and understand a few things only too well:

— That suppression of monetary metals prices is actually longstanding government policy and that governments are the underlying parties in interest.

— That governments have total control over the mining business through issuance of mining permits, enforcement of environmental regulations, and royalty requirements.

— That governments might not take kindly to mining companies that questioned government policy so sharply.

— That mining is the most capital-intensive business and as such cannot operate without financing from the biggest investment banks, like JPMorganChase, and that those banks are formally agents of governments in implementing government policy in the markets.

Indeed, many gold and silver mining companies have used JPMorganChase for financial services even as the bank’s futures trading now has been shown to have been rigging the prices of the gold and silver mining industry’s product.

Nevertheless, investors in gold and silver mining companies might do well to press their companies for comment on the class-action lawsuits against JPMorganChase and Deustchebank, about gold and silver market rigging generally, and about whether the miners should start supporting GATA in pursuit of free and transparent markets in the monetary metals.

At least their timidity has gotten the gold and silver miners nowhere.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

from SGT:
Palladium vaults look to being almost empty. Palladium will be the first, followed by silver and then gold.
(courtesy SGT)

Here is a video from SGT Report about the palladium vaults being almost empty. I know palladium is far off everyone’s radar, but if there defaults in palladium futures, people will begin to look around at the gold and silver futures markets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNQeq4r7yog

end

Another Ponzi scheme on the precious metals

(courtesy CFTC/financefeed.com)

CFTC revises estimate of investor losses caused by precious metals Ponzi scheme

The losses are now estimated to top $200 million, compared to the original estimate of $170 million.

The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Utah Department of Commerce, Division of Securities, today announce that they have amended their complaint against the defendants in a precious metals Ponzi fraud case.

The amended complaint was filed earlier in December. Inter alia, it revises the estimates of losses caused by the participants in the fraudulent scheme. The amended complaint alleges that Denise Gunderson Rust and Joshua Daniel Rust actively participated and aided and abetted, in a precious metals Ponzi scheme with defendants Gaylen Dean Rust and Rust Rare Coin, Inc. (RRC).

Through this scheme, Gaylen Rust and RRC fraudulently solicited investments from investors since May 2013 for the purported purpose of pooling their money to purchase silver, a commodity in interstate commerce (Silver Pool).

Specifically, the Amended Complaint, alleges that Denise Rust and Joshua Rust knew the Silver Pool was a fraudulent scheme. Denise Rust and Joshua Rust signed checks issued to Silver Pool investors knowing that these checks were Ponzi payments involving money contributed by other investors. Denise Rust and Joshua Rust also transferred Silver Pool investor funds from bank accounts used by Gaylen Rust and RRC to one or more of the relief defendants or to help fund RRC’s other business activities.

The Amended Complaint also alleges that the Silver Pool fraud is larger than previously alleged and involves more than 430 individuals and at least $200 million in investor funds. This compares to estimates in the original complaint indicating that the defendants defrauded at least 200 individuals and fraudulently obtained more than $170 million from investors.

The CFTC and State of Utah filed the civil enforcement action against Gaylen Rust and RRC and several relief defendants on November 13, 2018 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Utah, Central Division. At that time, Denise Rust and Joshua Rust were named as relief defendants because they, among others, were alleged to have received Silver Pool investor funds to which they had no legitimate claim. On November 15, 2018, the Court entered a restraining order freezing the assets of the defendants and the relief defendants and permitting the CFTC and the State of Utah to inspect all relevant records of the defendants and the relief defendants.

The Court also appointed Jonathan Hafen of the law firm Parr Brown Gee & Loveless as receiver for the assets of defendants, relief defendants, and their affiliates. The receiver will establish a claims process through which Silver Pool investors will be able to submit information about claims for damages. The receiver will use the contact information obtained from Silver Pool investors to provide notice of that process. Silver Pool investors may submit their information to the receiver via: https://rustrarecoinreceiver.com/

The CFTC and the State of Utah seek disgorgement of ill-gotten gains, civil monetary penalties, restitution, permanent registration and trading bans, and a permanent injunction against further violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, CFTC Regulations, and Utah securities laws, as charged.

https://financefeeds.com/cftc-revises-estimate- investor-losses-caused-precious-metals-ponzi-scheme/

-END-

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.8948/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8911   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 21.32 POINTS OR 0.82%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 273.73 POINTS OR 1.53%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 391.43 POINTS OR 1.82%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.80/Euro RISES TO 1.1380

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.42/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 51.76 and Brent: 61.08

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.24%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.96% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.38%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.72: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.38

3k Gold at $1247.50 silver at:14.64   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 31/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.33

3m oil into the 48 dollar handle for WTI and 58 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.42 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9916 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1285 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.24%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.83% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.09%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3417

 

Global Stocks Rebound As Dollar Tumbles, Oil Flash Crashes

After Monday’s furious selloff which saw a relentless barrage of heavy sell programs as one or more hedge funds threw in the towel and liquidated at any price, Tuesday has seen global markets and US equity futures stage a modest rebound while shares in Europe pared a drop following a weak session in Asia after Xi Jinping failed to impress traders with any new stimulus measures during his much anticipated speech. The dollar tumbled, oil flash crashed while Treasuries, gold and the yen advanced as neurotic traders peeked from under their bomb shelters.

Starting the session’s main event, Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to offer any fresh commitments to open or stimulate the world’s second-biggest economy in a keynote speech. That compounded the gloom surrounding riskier assets, and sent Chinese equities lower while both the MSCI Asia Pacific and MSCI Emerging Market indexes retreated (for more details see our recap here).

In a speech marking 40 years of market liberalization, Xi called on Tuesday for the unswerving implementation of reforms on Beijing’s terms, saying no one could boss it around. In remarks lasting nearly an hour-and-a-half, Xi called for support for the state economy and development of the private sector, and said China would expand efforts at opening up and ensure the implementation of major reforms. But the one thing that traders were looking for was missing, as Xi offered no new measures, resulting in more early session selling.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index initially followed Asia lower, but recovered most of its losses as the session progressed. Futures for the S&P 500 Index showed a rebound after the underlying gauge plunged to the lowest in 14 months on Monday.

Even with the reversal in sentiment, the S&P 500 is almost 8% lower in December – heading for its worst month since 2010.

“We’re facing the biggest December fall in U.S. stocks since 1931 and this is striking and worrying at the same time,” said Chris Bailey, European strategist at international financial services firm Raymond James. “We are at a regime shift moment and the debate is how big that regime shift will be.”

The risk-on tone returned after the dollar suddenly tumbled, starting a steep decline shortly after 2am ET, which dragged the Bloomberg Dollar Index lower for a second day before the Fed begins a two-day policy meeting.

As the dollar extended its slump, Treasuries advanced as traders positioned for the Fed’s policy decision, with yields on 10Y TSYs dropping as much as 3.6bps to 2.82%, the lowest level since Aug 27. Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell to a one-week low of 0.23 percent.

Perhaps the most notable overnight move was in the commodities market, where one day after WTI dropped below $50 for the first time since July 2017, oil flash crashed shortly after Europe opened for trading, plunging as much as $1.50 with no obvious driver.

The sharp price drop followed reports from the US that their shale oil output is to top 8mln BPD by year end. There have also been comments from Russian Energy Minister Novak who states that December output is around Octobers levels which are slightly higher than in November; meaning that Russia’s output has increased not decreased following the OPEC+ deal where they pledged a cut of 228,000 BPD. Later today we have API Weekly Stocks which are expected to present a 3.25MMbbls draw, which may offer prices some respite from the current downward pressure. Gold has benefited from dollar weakness reaching week highs of USD 1249.83/oz ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. While Palladium has fallen from the record high of USD 1269.5/oz reached in the previous session. Elsewhere Chinese steel and raw materials have fallen alongside the broader risk sentiment and after President Xi’s speech where no new specific reform measures were stated.

Elsewhere in FX, on a weak-dollar day, the euro rose shrugging off the IFO survey showing that German business sentiment deteriorated further to its lowest level in more than two years.

Norway’s krone dropped to a one-year low amid low liquidity and as oil prices tumbled to more than a one-year low. New Zealand’s dollar rallied after an index of business confidence rose to the highest in eight months, triggering stop- loss buying against the Aussie

While sentiment reversed from yesterday’s apocalyptic mood, there still seems little that can halt the sell-off in equities so investors are increasingly pinning their hopes on the Fed taking a dovish turn this week. MSCI’s world stock index has fallen 10 percent this year and is set for its worst year in a decade.

While a rate hike is widely expected, we noted earlier why a rate hike tomorrow is looking increasingly iffy. President Donald Trump has ramped up his criticism of policy makers, tweeting that “it is incredible” the Fed was even considering another rate rise and on Tuesday morning Trump said he hopes “the people over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make yet another mistake”.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I hope the people over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make yet another mistake. Also, don’t let the market become any more illiquid than it already is. Stop with the 50 B’s. Feel the market, don’t just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck!

 

It’s not just the Fed that poses a last minute hurdle, with more potential trouble looming: on Friday, the same day as quad witching, the US government will likely shut down unless Trump and Schumer find a last minute compromise. For now that looks unlikely.

“Any news is being taken as bad,” regardless of the context, said Evan Lucas, chief market strategist at Investsmart Group, on Bloomberg Television. “We are trading like we’re in a bear market, with little likelihood of relief in volume-thinned markets in the holiday period ahead,” he said.

Expected data include November housing starts and building permits. No major companies are reporting

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,566.50
  • Brent Futures down 2.8% to $57.95/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,249.48
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.91
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 340.62
  • MXAP down 0.9% to 148.16
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 478.00
  • Nikkei down 1.8% to 21,115.45
  • Topix down 2% to 1,562.51
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 25,814.25
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 2,576.65
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 36,312.85
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 5,589.47
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,062.11
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 0.232%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1373
  • Brent Futures down 3.3% to $57.63/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 2.597%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 1.383%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • European Union will rule out doing mini deals with the U.K. to ease the chaos of Britain crashing out without a divorce agreement, and instead take unilateral steps to protect its interests, a person familiar said
  • U.K. said to prepare migration policy favoring high earners, after months of arguments over which applicants should be given preference
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping said his government will continue a multi-year effort against pollution, poverty and financial sector risks, while underlining commitment to the multilateral global trading system
  • China Daily reports individual income tax reduction will be on top of Chinese government’s task list next year, citing an unidentified official
  • President Trump slammed the Fed on the eve of its policy meeting for “even considering” another rate increase, and suggested the central bank has no reason to move because inflation is low
  • Fed rate hikes are extremely rare when stocks are this beaten up
  • Reserve Bank of Australia struck a slightly dovish tone in minutes of its last policy meeting of the year
  • Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz says he isn’t expecting a recession in 2019. The economy is operating near capacity and inflation on target means rates should be more normal and move toward a neutral range of 2.5% to 3.5%
  • China’s holdings of notes, bills and bonds dropped for a fifth month to $1.14t in October, from $1.15t in September, according to Treasury Department data
  • Crude settled below $50 a barrel in New York for the first time in more than a year and continued falling in after-hours trading
  • The EU will rule out doing mini deals with the U.K. to ease the chaos of Britain crashing out without a divorce agreement, and instead take unilateral steps to protect its interests, a person familiar with the bloc’s plans said
  • M&G Investments is building up its war chest of U.S. Treasuries on wagers that yields in the world’s most liquid bonds are likely near their peak
  • This week, Sweden’s central bank may be facing its most difficult meeting since 2011. That’s the last time the bank raised interest rates and, in so doing, set in motion a cycle that ultimately ended in the deployment of crisis measures
  • Germany’s federal government plans to increase gross borrowing by around 15 percent to 199 billion euros next year to accommodate refinancing of the nation’s “bad bank” fund that was set up during the height of the financial crisis

Asian equities were lower across the board following the slump seen on Wall St. as investors readied for an expected Fed
hike against the backdrop of slowing global growth. The S&P fell to the lowest in 14 months, while the Dow declined in excess
of 500 points as shares in Amazon and Goldman Sachs led the declines. ASX 200 (-1.2%) was pressured by energy names amid
the price action in the complex, while Nikkei 225 (-1.8%) underperformed due to a firmer currency on safe-haven demand as
equities continued selling off. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) extended on opening losses as
Chinese President Xi Jinping gave his landmark speech at the Beijing Conference in which he provided little by way of details
regarding trade developments with the US. Chinese President Xi said China is to stick to supply side reforms, to promote trade convenience and a multilateral trading system. President Xi added that no-one is in a position to dictate what China should or shouldn’t do and opposes nations forcing their ideas on others and that China may face unimaginable difficulties ahead, but will control major risks in the economy.

Top Asian News

  • China Inks Deals With Shell, Majors as Xi Signals Open Trade
  • Xi Says China to Continue With ‘Three Battles’ on Economic Risks
  • Japan’s FY2019 Budget to Top 100 Trillion Yen for First Time
  • Shopping Crunch Time Triggers Race to Sign Taiwan Wind Deals

Major European Indices are now mixed after beginning firmly in the red at the start of the session. Underperformance is seen in the FTSE 100 (-0.5%) and the AEX (-0.8%) with both weighed on by index heavyweight Royal Dutch Shell (-1.8%) in the red as they are reportedly planning to purchase Endeavor Energy for USD 8bln. Sectors are similarly in the red with underperformance seen in energy names due to oversupply fears weighing on oil prices and the aforementioned Royal Dutch Shell story. Significant outperformance is seen in the European Auto’s & Parts sector, with auto names such as Daimler (+1.6%) and BMW (+1.0%) causing the DAX (+0.4%) to be the outperforming European index. Other notable equity

Top European News

  • EU to Rule Out ‘Managed No-Deal’ as Bloc Boosts Brexit Planning
  • German Business Confidence Worsens, Putting Rebound in Doubt
  • Rehn Says ECB Should Consider Reviewing Policy Framework
  • Shire Drops for Second Day as Earlier Index Rebalancing Looms

In FX, the JPY was the best G10 performer and beneficiary of safe-haven positioning amidst broad risk-aversion in global equities and especially oil that continues to price in a return to oversupply vs demand. Consequently, Usd/Jpy has pulled back further from recent highs to retest December lows not far above 112.00, but may encounter some technical bids around 112.40 (100 DMA) given decent option expiries in the same area (1 bn from 112.40 to 112.55).

  • GBP/AUD/EUR – All firmer vs the Greenback, as the DXY skirts nearest sub-97.000 chart support at 96.850, and the Buck’s defensive pre-Fed tone overshadows independent factors that may otherwise keep the Pound, Aussie Dollar and single currency suppressed. For Sterling, Brexit remains the obvious and main stumbling block, but Cable is sitting more comfortably above 1.2600 and testing the 10 DMA at 1.2640, while Aud/Usd is staging another attempt to breach 0.7200 even though the Aud/Nzd cross has recoiled sharply to sub-1.0500 levels on the aforementioned Kiwi outperformance. Eur/Usd has also established a firmer base above a big figure, at 1.1300, and eyeing strong chart resistance at the foot of a daily formation just before a cluster of other upside targets around 1.1400 where a decent 1 bn expiry runs off. However, more downbeat German macro news in the form of December’s Ifo survey has also dampened some of the Euro’s more bullish momentum.
  • CAD/CHF – The Loonie is struggling to bounce off 1.3400+ lows given the latest collapse in crude prices, which is also undermining the likes of the NOK despite March 2019 Norges Bank rate hike guidance from Governor Olsen, while the Franc continues to meet offers ahead of the 0.9900 mark and has eased back from peaks vs the Eur towards 1.1300 following more reports of convergence between Italy and the EU on the 2019 budget.

In commodities, Brent (-2.3%) and WTI (-2.7%) have continued to decline amidst concerns of an oversupplied market, with WTI dropping to October 2017 levels. The price decline follows reports from the US, the world’s largest oil producer, that their shale oil output is to top 8mln BPD by year end. There have also been comments from Russian Energy Minister Novak who states that December output is around Octobers levels which are slightly higher than in November; meaning that Russia’s output has increased not decreased following the OPEC+ deal where they pledged a cut of 228,000 BPD. Later today we have API Weekly Stocks which are expected to present a 3.25MMbbls draw, which may offer prices some respite from the current downward pressure. Elsewhere, Libya’s NOC has declared a force majeure on operations at the El Sharara oil field, stating that production will only restart after alternative security arrangements are implemented. For context, this follows the force majeure declared on the fields exports last week.

Gold has benefited from dollar weakness reaching week highs of USD 1249.83/oz ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. While Palladium has fallen from the record high of USD 1269.5/oz reached in the previous session. Elsewhere Chinese steel and raw materials hav

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.23m, prior 1.23m
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts MoM, est. 0.01%, prior 1.5%
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.26m, prior 1.26m
  • 8:30am: Building Permits MoM, est. -0.4%, prior -0.6%

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 21.32 POINTS OR 0.82% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 273.73 POINTS OR 1.05% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 391.43 OR 1.82%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.24%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8948 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 48.44 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.17 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8948AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8911: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

END

3 C CHINA

Chinese and European stocks slide as Xi speech disappoints: no mention of stimulus to get their economy going.  He points to the fact that China may face unimaginable difficulties

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Slide As Xi Speech Disappoints: “China May Face Unimaginable Difficulties”

There was much anticipation ahead of tonight speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 40th Reforms Anniversary Event.

Hope was high for Xi to highlight potential new reform measures, growth initiatives, and – what the markets want most – moar stimulus.

He instead offered none of the above, choosing a propaganda-heavy discourse on the Communist Party’s contributions to the success of China.

Main highlights include Xi pointing out that 1978 marked major turning point of far reaching significance and “China’s stability makes it one of the safest nations in the world…” (except if you’re a Canadian businessman)

China’s had an average +9.5% growth for the past 40 years.

But warned that:

“China may face unimaginable difficulties ahead”

The speech was dominated by role of the party in developing modern China

Says the party has led China on a “soul stirring journey”

“China has demonstrated the vitality of scientific socialism with indisputable facts.”

There was no concrete message from Xi’s speech either on the trade friction with the U.S. or growth prospects for 2019.

“No one is in a position to dictate to the Chinese people what should or should not be done,”

Xi likens China’s current stage of development to swimming midstream in a river or climbing half way up a mountain:

“There is no turning back.”

On reforms, Xi warned:

“The road of reform and opening are becoming more steep, but we must go forward with conviction, commitment and confidence.”

On globalization, Xi talked about a “new form of international relations.”

There should be no “bullying” and there should be respect for different development models.

China “will never seek hegemony, Xi says, but we note that China is expanding influence, however, in regions such as the South China Sea, where it has built islands and put military emplacements on them.

“We will resolutely fight an uphill battle to prevent and defuse major risks, lift people out of poverty, and prevent and control pollution,”

Xi closed on the same heavy Communist and Marxist evangelism theme, by saying that China is in the process of:

  • Standing up
  • Getting rich
  • Growing strong

And remember,China is “standing tall and firm in the East.”

But that was not what the market wanted to hear and investors are disappointed for now as Xi provided no new initiatives…

US Futures are fading also…

And early Yuan gains are leaking away…

And for now, no new measures and the old stimulus measures aren’t working…

Since June 2018, China has been loosening monetary and fiscal policies in an attempt to refloat the sinking red ponzi amid the shadow banking system’s deflation.

As the following chart from Goldman Sachs shows, it is not working as the Current Activity Indicator continues to slump…

It seems no matter what China throws at it, the economy (or the market) won’t behave as the text-books say it should.

end

Also Xi declares that “no one can dictate reforms to China.  That statement was meant for the uSA

(courtesy zerohedge)

In Defiant Speech, President Xi Declares “No One Can Dictate Reforms To China”

Given that he was speaking to honor the 40th anniversary of the 1978 reforms that set China on the path toward building a modern industrialized state, Xi Jinping – markets had hoped – might announce new reform measures or economic liberalization efforts like certain policy moves that had been teased by the Wall Street Journal last week.

Xi

Yet, as we described last night, Chinese stocks slumped as Xi opted not to make “liberalization” and “reform” the centerpiece of his speech (unlike his memorable opening remarks at Davos 2017 where he spoke about “opening up” the Chinese economy, comments that were cheered by international investors). Instead, Xi defended China’s embrace of “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and insisted the world’s second largest economy would stick to its policy agenda despite pressure from the US, according to Bloomberg.

Xi told an audience of party officials, military leaders and entrepreneurs in a speech Tuesday that “no one is in the position to dictate to the Chinese people what should and should not be done.” The 80-minute address in Beijing was held to mark the 40th anniversary of the Reform and Opening Up campaign that unleashed the country’s economic boom under then leader Deng Xiaoping.

In remarks that ranged from the economy to the environment to Taiwan and the South China Sea, Xi presented his agenda as the logical outcome of the country’s post-1978 “reform era” and Chinese history more broadly. He reasserted his contention that the country had entered a “new era” under his leadership and was poised for a bigger role in world affairs.

Markets were less than thrilled, as Chinese stocks slid after the hoped-for reform announcements didn’t materialize.

While the speech was being watched for potential policy announcements, Xi offered no new ideas to boost the economy or assuage U.S. concerns. Instead, he reiterated the need for the Communist Party to exercise leadership and control over all aspects of the country’s development:

“What and how to reform must be based on the overarching goal of improving and developing the socialist system with Chinese characteristics,” Xi said “We will resolutely reform what should or can be changed, but will never reform what cannot be changed.”

Just two-and-a-half weeks after China committed to pursuing an end to the trade war with the US, the tone of Xi’s remarks was conspicuously defiant.

The speech continued the measured, if defiant, tone Xi has struck amid a trade war with the U.S. that has fueled concerns about China’s slowing economy and battered capital markets. He provided little insight into how his government might assuage U.S. demands in ongoing trade talks, including calls to roll back support for state-owned enterprises and key technological industries.

In fact, Xi’s speech reaffirmed China’s pursuit of “indigenous innovation” in “core technologies.”

In arguing that China can’t be dictated to, Xi followed in the footsteps of previous leaders. Mao Zedong rejected the advice of Soviet leaders in both his strategy for winning the revolution and in his desire to pursue his Great Leap Forward industrialization campaign. Deng refused to entertain Mikhail Gorbachev’s ideas for pursuing political reform together with economic opening and rejected 1990s “shock therapy” as socialist systems were dismantled rapidly across the world.

He also ominously claimed that “there is no textbook” of golden rules to follow toward reform in China, while rejecting analysts’ hopes for new policy initiatives to arrest the slowdown in China’s economic growth that has been aggravated by its trade war with the US.

“There is no textbook of golden rules to follow for reform and development in China, a country with over 5,000 years of civilization and more than 1.3 billion people,” Xi said.

Despite the expectations of some analysts, Xi delivered no new policy initiatives to address fears that China’s economic slowdown might worsen as the trade war continues with the U.S. Instead, he emphasized the continuation of established policies.

However, announcements of new reforms could be forthcoming in the days ahead as China’s leaders begin an economic-policy meeting.

Leaders are expected to start their annual economic policy-meeting Wednesday at which more detailed plans may be unveiled. The gathering lays down priorities for economic policy for the coming year and last year laid out a three-year approach to winning three “critical battles.”

“We will resolutely fight an uphill battle to prevent and defuse major risks, lift people out of poverty, and prevent and control pollution,” Xi said. “China will promote trade convenience and continue to play the role of a responsible major nation.”

For those who have 2 hours to kill – and have nothing better to do – watch his full translated speech below:

SEE ZERO HEDGE

 

 

 END
Graham Summers is going to give us several areas of concern as to why we are heading into a financial crisis.
His first episode  is China and how these guys are on the brink of collapse
(COURTESY GRAHAM SUMMERS)

The Next Financial Crisis is Here, Pt. 1

This might be the single most important series of articles I’ve written all year.

If you have family or friends who are concerned about the markets, forward them these emails.

The global economy is now facing the Perfect Storm. Many are confused by this because neither the economic data nor the media are presenting a picture that is anywhere near as negative as reality.

The reasons for this are that economic data is BACKWARD looking, not predictive… and the media has a vested interest in promoting a rosy picture (their advertising dollars are closely linked to economic growth/ improvement).

Financial markets, on the other hand, are FORWARD looking. And they tend to reflect reality better than most things, especially when the financial system is entering a profound change like we are today.

So what is The Perfect Storm?

Today we’re discussing China.

According to the media, China is the next superpower. We are told incessantly that China owns more of our debt than any other country. Moreover, we are told that China buying up the rest of the world or cutting trade deals that will destroy the $USD.

In reality, the Chinese financial system is teetering on the brink of collapse. The country issues $30 in debt for every $1 in GDP growth.

The debt was taken on by entities that will never pay it back (the country’s BAD loan to GDP ratio is north of 80%)… and the debt is, for the most part, backed by nothing: time and again, we find that when it comes to collect collateral on a debt transaction in China, there is no collateral.

Imagine a mansion that looks pristine on the outside but is completely rotten inside, with the floors collapsing, mold on the walls, etc. Now imagine that the owner used a fake ID to buy the home and there is no means of finding him or her. Moreover, his or her bank account linked to the home is closed.

That is China today.

The markets know it too… which is why the Chinese stock market has broken its bull market trendline running back to… 1991.

The China Miracle is over.

GPC1218182.png

99% of investors will panic when this crisis hits…

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

Supposedly the EU has accepted the Italian budget proposal with a projected deficit of 2.04%

(courtesy zerohedge)

Euro Climbs As Italy Reportedly Strikes Budget Deal With EU

Update 2 (2:30 pm ET): Reports are now saying the EU has accepted an Italian budget proposal with a projected deficit of 2.04%.

* * *

Update (2 pm ET): Italy has received “only verbal assurances” about budget deal with the EU, according to a source in the prime ministers office.

Though they added it was “reasonable” to expect a “positive outcome” from a Wednesday meeting where EU officials will discuss the Italian budget.

* * *

The dueling reports are notable, since according to rumors reported in the Italian press last month Economy Minister Giovanni Tria was reportedly mulling quitting the government after butting heads with Prime Minister Giuseppe Conti over who would take the lead on negotiations with the EU.

 

One day after Italy cut its GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 1% from 1.5% – more than negating their proposed cuts to the projected deficit in their draft budget – the Italians have reportedly struck a deal with the EU to avert potentially billions of euros in fines, according to an official in Economy Minister Tria’s office.

Reacting to the headline, which, if accurate, would presumably lessen the chances of an Italian banking crisis and the possibility of ‘Italeave’, the euro climbed on the news.

Italy

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

An excellent commentary from Tom Luongo explaining how Turkey forged alliances with China and Russia and how that turned the corner for them

a must read..

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Revisiting Turkey’s Debt Problem

Authored by Tom Luongo,

It is increasingly clear the global economy is slowing down.  And a few months ago the epicenter for that slowdown was Turkey. 

The Turkish Lira melted down as fears over its massive pile of corporate debt, most of it denominated in dollars, began selling off.  And that had contagion effects into Europe since yield-starved banks went looking for some thanks to the ECB’s negative interest rate policy.

So, at the time everyone was losing their minds.  The very public tiff between Presidents Trump and Erdogan over geopolitical issues became acute. Days later Turkey’s currency is under extreme pressure.

At the time I called this a political hit to try and remove Erdogan from power.  I was right about that. I was also right that Turkey would be helped from all sides to survive this attack.

Turkey’s real allies — Russia, China, Iran and Qatar — came to its defense.  Qatar pledged some forex support,China upped its trade.  Bilateral swap arrangements were signed, trade deals cut, etc.

All This began shifting the Turkish economy away from the U.S. dollar and reorient itself with its biggest trading partners, which also includes the European Union.

So, imagine my shock this morning when Turkey’s latest debt numbers and how they’ve changed since the Lira crisis ended suddenly with the return of Pastor Andrew Brunson and l’affair Kashoggi.

The sector’s long-term debts reached $213 billion as of October, down $9.1 billion from the end of last year, the Turkish Central Bank said in a statement.

The bank also said the sector’s short-term loans – debt that must be paid in the next 12 months — fell $2.7 billion to $15.9 billion during the same period.

– Hurriet

Those are the important numbers. 

They aren’t good, but they are significantly better.  And exactly the kind of thing that needs to occur if Turkey is going to extricate itself from the mess it is currently in.

Raising interest rates sharply induced a mass of domestic savings, up a whopping 20% year-over-year. Turkey is now in a position to issue short-term foreign currency debt to mobilize some of that savings and convert more dollar and euro corporate debt into lira debt.

It’s a shell game for sure, but it’s born of necessity while Turkey narrows its trade deficit.  Savings is re-denominated to assist the most vulnerable Turkish firms while their debt is paid off or restructured.

The banks are somewhat recapitalized thanks to strong savings.

These firms are seeing stronger exports thanks to the cheaper lira while domestic energy costs have attenuated over the past few months with sharply lower oil prices.

Turkey’s Balance of Trade

Remember, Turkey is a huge energy importer and who does it buy the lion’s share of its energy from?  Russia and Iran. 

Watching this play out is so similar to what I saw in Russia in 2015.  The world piled on and thought Russia would never respond to the pressure.   Russian firms were barred, because of sanctions, from rolling over their debt, they had to pay it off.

But, they did and now they, too, are running record trade surpluses, which will fall now with lower oil prices, but domestic energy prices are low keeping profits up and the reorganization of the Russian economy on pace.

Turkey isn’t out of the woods yet.  There will be periodic funding walls which occur where large tranches of corporate debt will need to be paid off or rolled over putting upward pressure on the lira.  And any strong dollar moves will also weigh heavily, like what’s happening now.

But, the worst is past because policy has fundamentally changed domestically.  Erdogan understands his economic future lies in Asia not Europe and the U.S.

*  *  *

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

CANADA/TORONTO

With the oil sector in disarray, we find that finally Toronto home prices are falling.  Actually not just falling but plunging at a rate not seen since 1996

(courtesy zerohedge)

Toronto Home Prices Just Plunged At A Rate Not Seen Since 1996

A seismic shift is currently underway in the Toronto real estate market which may have finally pricked Canada’s biggest bubble. In October, home prices plunged at the fastest pace in more than two decades, according to new data published by Statistics Canada.

Statistics Canada’s Price Index for new Toronto homes declined 1.4% in October from a year earlier, the most since September 1996. Across all provinces and territories, home prices increased 0.1%, the slowest pace since 2010, which signals the country’s real estate market has stalled and could reverse into 2020.

The pace of new home construction crashed by a massive 40.3% in the Greater Toronto Area between October 2017 and October 2018.

Bloomberg describes the turning point in the real estate market as a result of government measures, introduced in 2017 to help cool the city’s red-hot housing market, such as tighter mortgage lending laws.

“The Bank of Canada also raised its trend-setting interest rate five times between July 2017 and October of this year,” notes Bloomberg.

“New home prices were advancing at an annual pace of almost 4% late last year before the mortgage rules took effect.”

Further, the current economic backdrop suggests storm clouds are gathering across the country. Last week, the Canadian 2 and five year bond yields inverted, for the first time since 2007.

“This is often taken as a signal that investors are more optimistic about short-term prospects versus the long term, suggesting a lack of confidence in continued economic growth. This can also impact bank profitability, as banks pay short-term rates on deposits and take in long-term rates on loans. A flat or inverted yield curve, therefore, could lead to negative net interest margins,” said Steve Saretsky of VancityCondoGuide.

As Saretsky shows, this can cause bank lending to further tighten, leaving borrowers high and dry when market liquidity is most needed.

While the resulting slowdown from bank lending can be seen in the decline of sales volumes,it is now more noticeably reflecting in home pricesAs shown below, Toronto housing sales continued dropping into the lower range of the usual seasonal activity. Inventory has dramatically expanded with listings out-numbering sales by 2.6 times. Rising inventory, declining sales; this market is expected to come under further stress in 2019.

Toronto’s real estate market is in the midst of a soft landing orchestrated by the government. As the global economy is expected to rapidly slow in 2019, there is a chance the soft landing could turn hard. Storm clouds are here.

end
Malaysia/Goldman Sachs
The crooked squid in action:  how Goldman partners ignored (on purpose_ red flags while pursuing the 1MDB deal
(courtesy zerohedge)

Goldman Partners Ignored ‘Red Flags’ While Pursuing 1MDB Deals: WSJ

As the legal scrutiny facing the infamous “Vampire Squid” intensifies (and the bank’s shares languish at two-year lows), slowly but surely, more details about the compliance shortcuts and – in some cases, outright negligence – countenanced by Goldman’s most senior employees during the bank’s pursuit of the 1MDB bond offerings that have landed Goldman at the center of one of the biggest financial fraud scandals in history are slowly dribbling out. 

And in its latest expose, the Wall Street Journal, which helped expose the scandal back in 2015 with a series of groundbreaking reports connecting money in a bank account controlled by former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak to the bankrupt fund, has published more details about how Goldman partners – who have traditionally been given wide latitude to operate without restraint – enabled the bank’s top bankers in Southeast Asia to work out a deal where Goldman would act as both financier and advisor for the fund, ignoring concerns about corruption raised by the bank’s compliance committee.

Solomon

David Solomon

The first allowances were reportedly made during a meeting of senior partners in Hong Kong in 2012 where they vetted the deal. Among the concerns highlighted were “media scrutiny” due to 1MDB’s lack of a track record and the potential for – get this – corruption.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s push for Asian business and lax oversight of partners led the bank to dismiss warning signs in its dealings with a corrupt Malaysian investment fund, internal documents and interviews with people involved in the transactions show.

When the fund, 1Malaysia Development Bhd., first sought Goldman’s help raising money, the bond deal came before a committee of senior bankers in Hong Kong in 2012 for a key round of vetting.Among the concerns sketched out in the meeting’s agenda: “potential media and political scrutiny,” Goldman’s unusual role as both financier and adviser, the colossal profit earned on what should have been a modest transaction—and how much of that haul would need to be disclosed. Not up for discussion: the young fund’s scant track record.

The deal happened anyway. It has ensnared Goldman in one of the largest financial frauds in history and darkened the early days of its new chief executive, David Solomon.

All of this cuts against Goldman’s argument that a handful of “rogue” employees misled the bank into pursuing the extremely profitable deal to help enrich themselves. Tim Leissner, the former Goldman partner who organized the 1MDB deal, has admitted to stealing $200 million from 1MDB to bribe government officials to ensure that Goldman won the fund’s business. But details reported by WSJ reveal that Leissner was abetted by the bank’s senior partners, who endorsed Leissner’s relentless pursuit of the deal as a crucial win for the bank, which worried that it was falling behind in Asia.

Andrea Vella, another Goldman partner who has been placed ‘on leave’ by the bank, is also in the crosshairs of the DOJ over suspicions that he was aware of the potential for corruption inside 1MDB, but continued to help Leissner circumvent Goldman’s internal controls.

A second Goldman partner, Andrea Vella, led the structuring of the 1MDB deals and was put on leave after Mr. Leissner’s guilty plea. Prosecutors allege he knew bribes were being paid and helped Mr. Leissner circumvent Goldman’s controls. He hasn’t been charged with a crime and his attorney disputed the allegations.

A committee of partners tipped off Leissner about issues that compliance was planning to raise about the deal. Correspondence from one compliance official revealed that the bank could overlook concerns surrounding disgraced Malaysian financier Jho Low’s involvement in another deal (Low is a fugitive from justice after being charged by Malaysian and US prosecutors with masterminding the fraud, and is believed to be hiding in China) so long as Low played “a minor role.”

Gaps in Goldman’s compliance systems and a postcrisis push into emerging markets put Goldman on a collision course with 1MDB, according to dozens of interviews and a review of government and internal Goldman documents.

In Asia, some members of a committee designed to keep Goldman out of dodgy deals tipped off Mr. Leissner and others about questions that were likely to come up, people familiar with the matter said.

Mr. Low was rejected for a bank account in 2011 because compliance officials couldn’t verify the source of his wealth. Yet when Goldman bankers pursued deals involving Mr. Low, compliance officials offered mild protests, but not roadblocks.

“Jho Low’s appearance is not welcome,” one compliance officer wrote to a banker in 2013 when Mr. Low teamed up with a Goldman client to buy a Houston-based oil company. “But if he is in a very minor role…then we may be able to live with it.” That deal, a takeover of Coastal Energy brokered by Goldman, is being investigated by U.S. prosecutors.

Malaysia is seeking nearly $3 billion in fines (far more than the $600 million profit Goldman reaped on the deal), and the alleged crimes carry penalties of up to 10 years in prison and fines of $240,000, according to Reuters. But even larger than the monetary costs, the prospect of the bank being tarred with criminal convictions – and the prospect of even more of its valued sovereign wealth fund clients departing for other banks – could have lasting ramifications for the bank.

And rightfully so.

end

Asian Hedge Fund/Citibank

This is just the beginning as Citibank is set to lose 180 million dollar loss on a loan to an Asian Hedge Fund. As zero hedge commented:
It’s not just hedge funds that are blowing up left and right: so are the banks that are lending them money.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Citi Facing $180 Million Loss On Loan To Asian Hedge Fund

It’s not just hedge funds that are blowing up left and right: so are the banks that are lending them money.

Citigroup is facing losses of up to $180 million on loans made to an unnamed Asian hedge fund which saw major losses on its FX trades Bloomberg reports citing a person briefed on the matter. The hedge fund and Citi “are in discussions on the positions and how they should be valued” which is usually a bad sign as when it comes to FX the mark to market is, at least, instantaneous. Bloomberg adds that the situation is fluid and the eventual losses may end up being smaller depending on how the trades are unwound.

While the loss may seem nominal, the matter was reportedly escalated to Citigroup’s board; as a result of the expected financial hit, Citi is also said to be reorganizing its prime brokerage business: it’s taking the FX prime brokerage unit out of the currency trading division and placing it under the oversight of its prime finance and securities services unit.

Chris Perkins, who leads the bank’s over-the-counter clearing business, will become head of the FX prime brokerage, the company said in the memo Tuesday. Sanjay Madgavkar, who ran the FX prime brokerage unit and has worked at Citigroup for more than 20 years, is leaving the firm, the person said. Madgavkar declined to comment.

Needless to say, this is a second order indication that the pain that has hammered the hedge fund world is finally starting to spread to multi-trillion prime brokerage business, and it is only a matter of time before more such episodes of “unexpected losses” start cropping up as tide goes out of from the “smart money.” As we have discussed previously, the $3.2 trillion hedge fund industry is on track to post its worst performance since 2011, and hedge funds with a focus on Asia are particularly struggling.

Meanwhile, Citi’s PB reorganization comes as Citigroup has been expanding the prime finance business, which is a part of its equities trading division and helps hedge funds in borrowing stocks, funding, transactions and risk management.

Ironically, during Citi’s investor day last year, the bank said it had increased client balances from prime brokerage clients by 40 percent since 2014 and noted its revenue growth in the business doubled that of its Wall Street peers.

And now it’s time to pay the piper for all this extra generosity.

7  OIL ISSUES

A good look at the USA oil picture now that oil flash crashed to below 50 dollars .

(courtesy zerohedge)

Shale Under Pressure As WTI Flash-Crashes Below $50 For 2nd Time Today

Xi’s speech did not help (with no growth measures revealed) but oil markets seem extremely fragile this morning having broken below $50 and flash-crashed for the second time in a few hours.

“The oil market has come under renewed pressure” and “a large part of the move is due to a broader market sell-off,” said Warren Patterson, commodities strategist at ING Bank NV.

Specifically for the oil market, there are no clear signs yet of the market tightening.”

WTI is trading extremely ugly this morning…

And as, OilPrice.com’s Nick Cunningham notes, the OPEC+ cuts still are not doing very much to boost oil prices, dashing hopes for many U.S. shale producers. With companies in the process of formulating their budgets for 2019, the prospect of $50 oil sticking around raises questions about the heady production figures expected from the shale patch.

The IEA expects U.S. oil production to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2019. But oil prices could significantly impact those projections.

“Total U.S. shale oil growth is highly sensitive to WTI prices in the $40-60 range,” Morgan Stanley wrote in a December 13 note. The investment bank said that shale producers are growing more sensitive to prices below $60 but less sensitive to price spikes above $60. “If WTI remains around current levels (~$50/bbl), US growth should start to slow.”

The investment bank said that larger companies, such as ConocoPhillips or Occidental Petroleum, are less sensitive to price swings than smaller E&Ps. On the other hand, some companies could begin to slow production if prices linger at low levels. Morgan Stanley pointed to Apache Corp., Murphy Oil, Newfield Exploration, Oasis Petroleum, Whiting Petroleum and Chesapeake Energy. “With low oil prices, we see these companies slowing production growth in 2019 to spend within cash flow (or minimize outspend), [free cash flow] levels fall or turn negative, and leverage metrics move higher.”

Other analysts also see price sensitivity from the shale sector. “We expect 5-10% capex growth on average at $59 WTI, which should yield production growth of nearly 1.3mn b/d,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note. “However producers may budget for lower oil prices given the recent decline in prices and increase in uncertainty.”

BofAML went on to add:

“We believe the $50 to $60 price range for WTI yields highly variable E&Ps budgets. In a mid to low $50s WTI scenario, producer budgets would likely come in flat to lower YoY and would likely lower US production growth to somewhere closer to 1mn b/d for next year.”

There is one major obstacle that the shale sector faced in 2018 that could start to dissipate: pipeline constraints.

U.S. shale producers and pipeline companies have deployed a variety of methods to mitigate the impact of pipeline constraints.

The higher-than-expected production figures from U.S. shale this year largely come down to the ability of producers and pipeline companies to work around the swelling bottleneck, particularly in the Permian. Pipeline operators have used drag reducing agents to speed up the flow of oil through the lines, allowing them to ship more oil than the nameplate capacity suggests. Also, the Plains All American Sunrise pipeline came online ahead of schedule, which also relieved some congestion. No major outages occurred in 2018, which has been “an element of luck” given the high throughput rates, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report.

More projects are set to come online in 2019, which should reduce the pressure on oil producers. The Bridgetex and the Sunrise expansions will add 40,000 and 175,000 bpd in the first half of 2019, respectively. Another 100,000 bpd will come from the Cactus 2, while Enterprise Products Partners could add 200,000 bpd by converting a natural gas liquids pipeline to crude oil.

That should be close to enough to avoiding production impacts. “Takeaway capacity growth will therefore closely track output growth in the Permian, but it will still lag behind until the second half of 2019, when the 675 kb/d EPIC project comes online,” the IEA said.

To be sure, the midstream challenges are not entirely resolve just yet. Pipeline “congestion at the Cushing hub should persist during 1H19, keeping pressure on WTI timespreads and differentials to Brent relatively wide,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note.

Also, the margin is tight – the multiple pipeline projects slated for operation in 2019 need to stay on schedule, while the midstream sector needs to avoid any unexpected outage. “Operators can ill afford major pipeline or refinery shutdowns during that time, as this would only exacerbate the shortage,” the IEA cautioned.

However, by the end of 2019, there will be very few midstream constraints holding back the shale industry. New planned export terminals will also clear the path for oil to be shipped overseas in ever rising volumes. “[P]ipeline and export projects slated for completion by 2020 should unchain North American oil production growth early in the next decade,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote.

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1381 UP .0031 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.42  DOWN 0.413 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2684 UP   0.0067  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3394  DOWN .0020 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 38 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1343/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 21.32 POINTS OR 0.82%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 273.73 POINTS OR 1.05%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.24% /EUROPEAN BOURSES RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED  DOWN 391.43 POINTS OR 1.82%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 273.73 POINTS OR 1.05% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 21.32  POINTS OR 0.82%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  1.24%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 391.43 POINTS OR 1.82%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1247.00

silver:$14.62

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.83% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.09 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.80 DOWN 30 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.63% DOWN 2    in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.03%  DOWN 1  BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.38% DOWN 2  IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.93 DOWN 3     POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 154 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.24%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.69% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1362 UP  .0013 or 13 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.54 DOWN  0 .295 OR 30 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2647 UP .0033( POUND UP 33  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 47 basis points to 1.3460

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.8953-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8668(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.3478

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.03%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.83 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.08 DOWN 5 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.00 DOWN 11 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 71.65 POINTS OR 1.06%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 31.31 POINTS  OR 0.29%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 45.79 POINTS OR 0.95%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 111.70 POINTS OR 1.27%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 48,60 POINTS OR 0.26%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 47.24 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 57.20 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    67.09  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .36 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 36 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.3478 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :46.27

 

BRENT :56.27

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.82%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.08%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1362 ( UP 13 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.55 DOWN 0.285 (YEN UP 29 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.08 DOWN 2 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2638 UP 23 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3419

the Russian rouble:  67.39 down .66 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 66 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3475 DOWN 63 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8953  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8896 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.24%

 

The Dow closed  UP 82.66 POINTS OR 0.35%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 30,8 POINTS OR 0.45%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  25.03 CLOSED UP 3.40 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.804%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/SMALL RISE TODAY

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Fed ‘Drift’ Fails To Rescue Worst December In 87 Years As Crude, Credit Crash

What started out so hopeful ended in tears and extended the worst December performance since 1931…

 

Quite a day for US equity futures markets…

 

Reminds us of this…

o…

 

As despite all the talk out of DC, the market is starting to get extremely anxious that shutdown will happen…

And Xi offered no new stimulus measures in his much-anticipated speech last night…

European markets were ugly (despite hopeful bids that Italy agreed on its budget with EU)…

But today’s real headline-grabber was in the energy complex where WTI crashed…once it broke below $50, there was no stopping it

To 15-month lows

The energy complex collapse sent HY credit risk soaring to new cycle wides

 

As Energy stocks and credit crashed…

 

Away from energy, the broad markets were also mixed as yet another dead cat bounce rip was sold…

 

S&P futures started optimistically but plunged back below yesterday’s lows (at the Feb lows)

 

High yield bond prices plunged to their lowest since April 2016…

 

 

Treasury yields continued to tumble…

 

10Y Yields are back to the Maginot Line of 2.82%…

 

Inflation breakevens plunged to 15-month lows as crude crashed…

 

The Dollar did one of its now ubiquitous trend reversals again today – dumping overnight and then ramping from the European open…NOTE that the dollar took out the payrolls plunge low…

 

Cryptos extended gains today…

 

Gold and Silver extended gains as copper and crude crashed…

 

Copper hit 3-month lows…

 

Silver hovered around its 50/100 DMAs…

 

And for some context about the drop in oil – it seems that relative to the price of silver,

Bear in mind, as David Rosenberg notes,

“Oil prices have collapsed nearly 40% from the nearby highs. Never before has the Fed tightened policy into such a free-fall in crude. So why would it now? Look for the Fed to take a pass tomorrow. This is not about political pressure, but rather receding inflation expectations.”

Finally, for those still holding out hope for The Fed to save the world tomorrow…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

All this anticipation about the Fed reminds me of all the rejoicing when we got that first discount rate cut on August 17th, 2007. If memory serves me correctly, the market didn’t bottom until March 9th, 2009.

END

 

market trading

After years of high frequency trading, Mnuchin now blames the stock market collapses on it.  What a bozo!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Mnuchin Blames High Frequency Trading For Exploding Market Volatility

It was back in 2014, right around the time Michael Lewis published Flash Boys that the public’s attention first fully focused on High Frequency Trading, and when we said that it was only a matter of time before HFT became the ultimate scapegoat du jour of all that is wrong with capital markets, “because since virtually nobody really understands what HFT does, it can just as easily be flipped from innocent market bystander which “provides liquidity” to the root of all evil” we said.

In other words: the high freaks are about to become the most convenient, and “misunderstood” scapegoat, for when the market finally does crash. Which means that those HFT-associated terms which very few recognize now, especially those on either side of the pro/anti-HFT debate who have very strong opinions but zero factual grasp of the matter, will become part of the daily jargon as the anti-HFT wave sweeps through the land.

To underscore this prediction, we made it vividly clear what would happen:

zerohedge@zerohedge

@LongOnlyTrader Only until market crashes. Then HFT will be the torches and pitchforks scapegoat. Not the Fed.

Nearly five years later, the time to blame HFTs has finally arrived, because during a roundtable interview today at Bloomberg‘s Washington office, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin blamed soaring volatility in the equity markets on high-speed trading adding that he planned to conduct an inter-agency review of market structure.

“Over a longer period of time the market reflects various different economic components but a normal trading day now is a 500-point range. A lot of that has to do with market structure, and that’s something we’re going to take a look at,” Mnuchin said.

In other words, while for over a decade, HFTs – in coordination with the Fed – were happily bidding up stocks and lifting risk assets higher to everyone’s delight, nobody had any problems with the algos that have come to dominate market structure while soaking up liquidity and making the market increasingly more fragile and susceptible to flash crashes as we discussed most recently in June

… just two months of selling by various quants, algos and of course, HFTs, and lo and behold, it’s time for a comprehensive market overhaul because – you know – it’s all the algos fault (just ignore the $4.5 trillion elephant in the room please).

zerohedge@zerohedge

10 years of algos artificially pushing stocks higher, not a peep.

2 months of algos selling and it’s time for a market overhaul

Mnuchin – a former Goldmanite and hedge fund manager – told Bloomberg he will ask the Financial Stability Oversight Council, which he heads, to study stock market volatility. While he has not “pre-judged” what exactly is behind the sharp moves before a review is complete, Mnuchin said problems with market structure “may be one of the reasons.”

He is, of course, correct but if one really wants to get to the bottom of market structure issues, one wonders why none of this took place years and years earlier when HFTs were becoming the dominant market-making – and liquidity sapping – force. Why wait until the market is on the verge of a bear market before finally engaging? The simple answer: the Trump admin, which naively decided it was prudent to inherit the bubble of a stock market, is now desperately looking for scapegoats.

And yes, the market under Trump has been increasingly chaotic, because after rising for over a year since his election, in more recent months stocks have fluctuated drastically at times reversing course on his comments about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, the ongoing trade dispute with China or the possibility of a government shutdown. Equity indexes slid to their lowest close in 14 months on Monday.

“In my opinion, market structure has led to a lot more volatility,” Mnuchin said. “Part of this is a combination of the market presence of high-frequency traders combined with the Volcker Rule.”

* * *

As Bloomberg notes, when regulators had previously sought to boost oversight, they always faced intense pushback from the industry of parasites, pardon, HFTers, which however got so big in recent years, it started cannibalizing itself and the result was countless HFT outfits going out of business as it became virtually impossible to frontrun ordinary orderflow – the bread and butter of the high frequency traders.

The industry pushback was so intense – as the profits from frontrunning were so extensive – regulators simply gave up: After calling for a crackdown on aggressive high-frequency trading in 2014, former Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Mary Jo White conceded before leaving office in 2016 that a fix had proved difficult. Wall Street’s main regulator still hasn’t passed a significant rule to curb the practice.

Meanwhile, the SEC itself has become complicit and has done virtually nothing to rein in the practice is that it’s concerned that making any changes to modern, electronic markets will cause more harm than good. It’s correct: changing market structure now that it is dominated by HFTs will likely lead to a crash; which is also why for the past ten years at least this website was constantly pointing out the inherent dangers in allowing HFT to proliferate.

One can safely say that it’s too late to change market structure now.

And for an example of just why, recall what Brian Levine, the co-head of Global Equities Trading at Goldman Sachs said this past June when he laid out the one thing that keeps him up at night: as he admits in an interview, “what’s more worrisome to me is a real flash crash, which I define as a situation when the market “breaks.”

Indeed, the market breaking is surely high on the list of every trader’s worst nightmares, and reminds us of what we predicted several years ago, namely that when the “big one” finally hits for whatever reason, there won’t be a 20%, 30%, 40% or more drop in seconds: the market will simply be halted indefinitely. This is how Levine describes his own trading nightmare, the one in which the crash is not a “flash” and the market simply breaks:

The data is wrong, everything trades at dislocated prices relative to the NBBO, and everyone—justifiably—widens their spreads. That happens almost every time there’s volatility, largely because message traffic increases dramatically. This is due to the fact that the opportunity set is greater and there’s no economic disincentive for sending messages to the market, so more electronic orders come in. This slows the system, widening spreads and generating price dislocations, which triggers even more orders and compounds the delays—a predicament that is only further exacerbated by the fragmentation of the equity markets. As this happens, stocks may trade outside of the NBBO briefly in millisecond or microsecond increments, constituting what I consider a genuine flash crash. All of this becomes a negative feedback loop that causes more volatility.

Interestingly, if you define a flash crash by the percentage of executions that took place outside the NBBO, one of the largest ones occurred in 2008 after the first TARP bill failed, according to internal analysis we did a few years ago. And the market didn’t snap back, with the SPX closing down 10% on the day and on its lows. I think that may have been why there wasn’t talk of a “flash crash” afterward, but clearly the market structurally failed pretty badly that daytoo. This suggests to me that, in a situation with actual bad news, the current US market structure may not be able to handle it, and there could be a downward spiral.

In other words, there will come a day “with actual bad news” when the selling onslaught is so broad, not even BTFD HFTs will be able to  resist the sudden avalanche of selling. That’s the day when the increasingly fragile market, one in which “liquidity is the new leverage” will officially break and stocks will “trade outside of the NBBO constituting a genuine flash crash” in a “negative feedback loop that causes more volatility.” A selloff from which there will be no “snap back.”

Of course, here skeptics would be quick counter to this worst case scenario: how come it has never happened yet? The answer was  simple: so far, every time the market crashed, central banks stepped in (as Bank of America recently showed).

Which is also why any attempt to truly fix the capital markets will require not only eradicating the destructive influence of HFTs, but also the pernicious impact of central banks, whose $15 trillion in liquidity made a mockery of price discovery, fundamental analysis and finance in general.

* * *

In addition to slamming HFTs, in a tip to his former employer Goldman, Mnuchin also blamed the Volcker Rule, which made it very difficult (but not impossible) for banks to trade as prop agents for much of the post Dodd-Frank period.

Of course, Wall Street – which was left out in the cold and unable to trade as a hedge fund following the Volcker Rule passage – which in turn impaired such glorified, FDIC-insured hedge funds as Goldman Sachs – had long argued that the rule is unnecessarily complex, almost impossible to adhere to and prevented banks from executing trades on behalf of clients (in reality it prevented prop traders from executing giant year-end bonuses). Partly in response to those concerns, the Federal Reserve and other regulators are working on an overhaul of Volcker.

Finally, Mnuchin also added that FSOC also would “probably” look into the potential risk posed by the $1.3 billion market for leveraged loans that often backs mergers and acquisitions of highly-indebted companies. Mnuchin, though, said he doesn’t “have the same concern at the moment” about the market, which has been the subject of warnings from the Fed and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

“I have heard a lot of people express that concern. I don’t have the same concern at the moment, but having said that it is an area that given people have expressed concern we will probably want to take a look at.”

end

This time the algos refuse to push the market higher on the latest Mnuchin China trade headlines. So it looks like Mnuchin was sent my Trump to increase the Dow and it failed.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Algos Refuse To Push Market Higher On Latest Mnuchin China-Trade Headlines

On any other day, the salvo of optimistic Mnuchin headlines on US-China trade would have been sufficient to ignite an instant burst higher in the S&P 500.

  • MNUCHIN SAYS U.S. EXPECTS TRADE TALKS WITH CHINA IN JANUARY
  • MNUCHIN: U.S. WORKING TO CONFIRM `SEVERAL’ MEETINGS WITH CHINA
  • MNUCHIN: U.S., CHINA AIM TO `DOCUMENT AN AGREEMENT’ BY MARCH 1

Only not this time, because perhaps in retaliation for Mnuchin’s earlier comments that he would crack down on the very same HFT algos that he so desperately needs to jawboning the market higher, stocks briefly rose, then quickly slumped to session lows.

“We’re in the process of confirming the logistics of several meetings and we’re determined to make sure that we use the time wisely, to try to resolve this,” Mnuchin said. Both sides are now focused on trying “to document an agreement” by a March 1 deadline for their current tariffs truce to run out. “We expect there will be meetings in January,” he said.

Previously the administration hadn’t been specific on the timing of talks.

Furthermore, in what was likely a smallish fabrication, Mnuchin tried to ignite a little more upside momentum when he said that neither he nor President Donald Trump were aware of the arrest of Huawei’s CFO when they met with China’s Xi Jinping for dinner on Dec. 1, the same day the company’s chief financial officer was arrested in Canada.

While the above statement, unbelievable as it may have been, would serve to boost risk prices, it was offset when Mnuchin sought to play down the president’s declaration last week that he would be willing to intervene on Huawei’s behalf if it was necessary to help reach a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies. “We’ve been very clear and China understands that these are separate tracks,’’ Mnuchin said.

Net: stocks initially pushed higher, then dipped in what may be a stark warning to the Trump admin of just what will happen to stocks –  and future attempts to jawbone them higher – if indeed Mnuchin goes after the “high-freaks”, as we said he would during the same Bloomberg interview earlier in the day.

end
My two favourite Bellwether stocks are Caterpillar and Fed Ex as they give such a good barometer as to what is going on in the global economy.
For Fed ex to announce before Christmas is truly something.  They have slashed their profit outlook as well as an international capacity reduction.  As what we have pounded the table to you:  the global slowdown is fierce! Check to Mr Jerome Powell of the Fed..your move!
(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Slammed After-Hours As FedEx Slashes Profit Outlook On Global Slowdown

The algo-enthused ramp into the cash close has been entirely erased after hours as futures tumbled, led by bellwether FedEx cut its profit forecast and announced an international capacity reduction as the courier grapples with a slowdown in global trade.

“While the U.S. economy remains solid, our international business weakened during the quarter, especially in Europe. We are taking action to mitigate the impact of this trend through new cost-reduction initiatives.”

As Bloomberg reports, FedEx slashed its target for adjusted earnings in fiscal 2019 to $15.50 to $16.60 a share from a previous goal of $17.20 to $17.80.

The company also said in a statement that it won’t meet a target for operating-profit growth at the Express unit of $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion in fiscal year 2020.

FedEx is also getting hurt in Europe, where “economic weakness that accelerated during the quarter” will delay the benefit of the company’s acquisition of TNT Express.

That sent FDX lower…

However, the company fueled concerns about the economic outlook as CFO Alan Graf said FedEx was taking a hit from “ongoing deceleration in global trade near-term.”

“Global trade has slowed in recent months and leading indicators point to ongoing deceleration in global trade near-term,” said Alan B. Graf, Jr., FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer.

“These trends, coupled with the change in service mix at FedEx Express, are negatively impacting the segment’s financial results. We remain committed to actively managing costs with a heightened focus on increasing efficiency across the organization.”

The guidance cut, coming three months after the company had raised its outlook, shows how quickly the economic environment has changed.

And this triggered broader risk-off concerns that sent S&P futures back to the lows of the day session…

But what about the strongest economy ever?

END

market data/

A little rebound in housing starts and permits but still 2018 has been an awful year on record for this important industry and a key component of GDP

(courtesy zerohedge)

Starts, Permits Bounce But 2018 Is US Housing Market’s Most Disappointing Year On Record

It has been an annus horribilis for housing markets in 2018 as affordability collapses on the heels of a hawkish Fed which has sent the US Housing data surprise index to a record low…

But, to stoke last minute hope, housing starts and building permits surprised to the upside (helped by some notable downward revisions).

Housing Starts +3.2% MoM (0.0% MoM exp), up from the revised lower drop of 1.6% MoM in October.

Building Pemrits

Housing Starts are down year-over-year for the second month in a row…

Housing Starts and Building Permits have gone nowhere in more than than two years…

Under the hood, rental/multifamily permits soared 15.4% to 441K from 382K , the highest since April.

But Single-family starts tumble 4.6% to 824K, lowest Since May 2017 (791K)

So, what will Powell do?

end

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Trump blasts Powell to feel the market as he pleads not to raise rates as the FOMC meeting begins today and ends tomorrow]

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Feel The Market”: Trump Pleads With Fed Not To Raise Rates As FOMC Meeting Begins

As members of the FOMC gather at the Eccles building for the first day of the central bank’s December policy meeting, during which they’re widely expected to vote to raise the Fed funds rate for the fourth time this year, President Trump is once again urging the central bank to reconsider – this time urging Chairman Powell & Co. to read an editorial in Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal calling for a pause in rate hikes (which in turn followed a similar piece from Fed “hawks” Stanley Druckenmiller and Kevin Warsh).

The tweet followed a similar message from Monday where Trump pointed out the incongruity in the Fed raising interest rates while “the world is blowing up.”

On the heels of Monday’s brutal selloff, which sent stocks to their lowest levels since October 2017, Trump warned “don’t let the market become any more illiquid than it already is. Stop with the 50 B’s.

Instead of blindly hiking, the Fed needs to “Feel the market, don’t just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck!”

His reference to “50 Bs” initially sparked some confusion on twitter:

ForexFlow@forexflowlive

We’re all scratching our heads at that one.#50Bs?

Gareth Baines@DrGABaines

The 50 Bs? Didn’t they sing “Love Shack”?

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I hope the people over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make yet another mistake. Also, don’t let the market become any more illiquid than it already is. Stop with the 50 B’s. Feel the market, don’t just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck!

While the bizarre phrasing is most likely a reference to the central bank’s $50 billion a month balance sheet runoff, a quick Google search revealed that a 50B is a legal code for… a domestic violence protective order.

Fed

Of course, we can’t be sure that’s what Trump means (who knows what’s going on in his head?) Then again, only Trump would use domestic violence as an analogy for stock selling.

END

Interesting;  Las Vegas home price in the previous couple of years rose at a much higher pace than the national average.  Now, thousands of Las Vegas homes received zero offers in November

(courtesy zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

Trump does not believe he will get anywhere with China so he is moving ahead with a second farm bailout

(courtesy zerohedge

Trump Moving Ahead With Second Farm Bailout Despite Trade ‘Truce’

Mere minutes after the S&P closed at its lowest level since October of last year following another brutal session for US stocks (as investors were shaken by Jeff Gundlach’s ‘truth bombs’ and the looming Fed rate hike), President Trump was out with a tweet that, we imagine, was intended to inspire confidence – but instead may have inadvertently raised questions about the prospects for a lasting trade truce.

Trump tweeted Monday afternoon that he had authorized Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue to move ahead with the second round of farm subsidies (“Market Facilitation Payments”) that the administration had authorized over the summer after China retaliated against the US by slapping tariffs on US agriculture imports like soybeans.

Infographic: Trump's Emergency Aid for Farmers in Context | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Though the subsidies hadn’t offset the trade war’s brutal impact on soybean farmersrelief for America’s beleaguered farmers finally arrived earlier this month when Chinese importers bought 500,000 in US soybeans, purportedly as a gesture of good faith following a “trade truce” struck by Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Argentina.

Perdue said that he’s set to release more details about the payments on Monday.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Today I am making good on my promise to defend our Farmers & Ranchers from unjustified trade retaliation by foreign nations. I have authorized Secretary Perdue to implement the 2nd round of Market Facilitation Payments. Our economy is stronger than ever–we stand with our Farmers!

The tweet settled speculation in the agricultural press about whether Trump would continue with the payments following the temporary truce.

But some might interpret Trump’s decision as a sign that expectations for talks with China are low, and that Trump needs to hedge.

END
Christopher Steele now admits in a court document that he was fired for the sole purchase of challenging the validity of the 2016 election
(courtesy zerohedge)

Christopher Steele Admits He Was Hired To Help Hillary Challenge 2016 Election

Former UK spy Christopher Steele admitted in a London court that he was hired to help Hillary Clinton contest the results of the 2016 election in case Trump won, according to the Washington Times.

Steele assembled an anti-Trump “dossier” of opposition research investigative firm Fusion GPS, which was in turn hired by DNC law firm Perkins Coie LLP. The document used “a senior Russian Foreign Ministry figure,” and “a former top level intelligence officer still active in the Kremlin,” according to Vanity FairIn other words, Hillary Clinton – through Steele and other intermediaries – was working with Russians against Donald Trump.

He said the law firm Perkins Coie wanted to be in a position to contest the results based on evidence he unearthed on the Trump campaign conspiring with Moscow on election interference.

His scenario is contained in a sealed Aug. 2 declaration in a defamation law suit brought by three Russian bankers in London. The trio’s American attorneys filed his answers Tuesday in a libel lawsuit in Washington against the investigative firm Fusion GPS, which handled the former British intelligence officer.

In an answer to interrogatories, Mr. Steele wrote: “Fusion’s immediate client was law firm Perkins Coie. It engaged Fusion to obtain information necessary for Perkins Coie LLP to provide legal advice on the potential impact of Russian involvement on the legal validity of the outcome of the 2016 US Presidential election.

“Based on that advice, parties such as the Democratic National Committee and HFACC Inc. (also known as ‘Hillary for America’) could consider steps they would be legally entitled to take to challenge the validity of the outcome of that election.” –Washington Times

During the election, Clinton told voters that Donald Trump would “threaten democracy” if he didn’t promise to accept the results of the 2016 election – after Trump suggested he might not accept the results of a “rigged” contest.

Embedded video

Sandi-The Ice cube that Kav threw!😂@sandiv11

😂Hillary Says:”Not Accepting the results of the Election is a direct assault on our Democracy,Dont b a Sore Loser”😂

Now listen to Hillary when she thought she was going to win the election:

Meanwhile Clinton was open to challenging the election more than ten months after her historic loss – if only there were a way. “There are scholars, academics, who have arguments that it would be, but I don’t think they’re on strong ground. But people are making those arguments. I just don’t think we have a mechanism,” Clinton told NPR in September 2017.

The dossier Steele produced was used as the basis for an FBI FISA surveillance warrant application to spy on members of the Trump campaign. Notably, the agency never told the FISA court that the dossier their application hinged on was paid for by the DNC and Clinton’s campaign, although it did indicate that it was opposition research.

The mainstream media used still-unverified key claims within the dossier to fuel a conspiracy theory that President Trump conspired with the Russian government to win the 2016 US election.

Meanwhile, as we reported earlier Monday, FBI and CIA sources told a Pulitzer Prize-winning Washington Post reporter that they didn’t believe a key claim contained in the “Steele Dossier,” the document the Obama FBI relied on to obtain a surveillance warrant on a member of the Trump campaign.

The Post‘s Greg Miller told an audience at an October event that the FBI and CIA did not believe that former longtime Trump attorney Michael Cohen visited Prague during the 2016 election to pay off Russia-linked hackers who stole emails from key Democrats, reports the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross.

“We’ve talked to sources at the FBI and the CIA and elsewhere — they don’t believe that ever happened,” said Miller during the October event which aired Saturday on C-SPAN.

We literally spent weeks and months trying to run down… there’s an assertion in there that Michael Cohen went to Prague to settle payments that were needed at the end of the campaign. We sent reporters to every hotel in Prague, to all over the place trying to – just to try to figure out if he was ever there, and came away empty. -Greg Miller

Meanwhile, Trump is still living under the spectre of Russian collusion, while Hillary Clinton actually colluded Russians in her plan to challenge the 2016 election.

END
Trump outraged that Mueller et friends scrubbed 19,000 Strzok/Page emails that would have showed extreme bias
(courtesy zerohedge)

“Outraged” Trump Claims 19,000 Missing Strzok Texts Would Have Exposed Mueller Probe “Hoax”

Mere hours before his former National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, is expected to be sentenced for lying to the FBI  (and hours after Robert Mueller finally released a heavily redacted sentencing memo), an angry President Trump once again lashed out at the FBI on twitter over former Agent Peter Strzok and his former “FBI lover” Lisa Page, who deleted some 19,000 texts exchanged on their company phones that should have been collected during a Congressional investigation into the presence and influence of anti-Trump bias inside the bureau.

Trump raged that the “biggest outrage yet” in the “long, winding and highly conflicted” Mueller ‘Witch Hunt’ was the fact that some 19,000 text messages between Strzok and Page were “purposely & illegally deleted.” Trump believes those messages, if recovered, would have explained the whole “hoax.”

Trump has a point: On Thursday, the Justice Department’s internal watchdog revealed that special counsel Robert Mueller’s office scrubbed all of the data from FBI agent Peter Strzok’s iPhone, while Page’s phone had been scrubbed by a different department, according to a comprehensive report by the Office of the Inspector General released on Thursday.

Of the thousands of text messages between Strzok and Page that were recovered by the OIG, many indicating that both agents in charge of investigating Donald Trump absolutely hate him.

In August 2016, Strzok and Page discussed an “insurance policy” in the event that Trump won the election which many believe to be in reference to operation Crossfire Hurricane – the DOJ’s counterintelligence investigation into Trump and his campaign.

“I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s office – that there’s no way he [Trump] gets elected – but I’m afraid we can’t take that risk.” wrote Strzok, adding “It’s like a life insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40.”

In the home stretch of the 2016 US election, Strzok is fuming at Trump – texting Page: ” I am riled up. Trump is a f*cking idiot, is unable to provide a coherent answer.” He then texts “I CAN’T PULL AWAY, WHAT THE F*CK HAPPENED TO OUR COUNTRY (redacted)??!?!,” to which Page replies “I don’t know. But we’ll get it back.”

So yeah, nothing suspicious about that. We totally understand how these comments might be considered accepted DOJ ‘locker room talk’, and in no way influenced the launch and early direction of the investigation that eventually expanded into ‘Operation Crossfire Hurricane’.

END

not a good day for Flynn:  his sentencing is delayed until he completes his cooperation with the authorities

(courtesy zerohedge

Judge Apologizes For Suggesting Flynn Is A Traitor, Delays Sentencing

Update (12:50 pm ET): After what was by all accounts a contentious hearing, the sentencing has been postponed to give Flynn more time to cooperate. After the judge ‘hinted’ that prosecutors might have considered charging Flynn with treason, Flynn agreed to take more time to offer more ‘cooperation’ with authorities.

* * *

Update (12:45 pm ET): The hearing has started back up again, and Judge Sullivan has made clear that he wasn’t suggesting that Flynn had committed treason, saying “the government has no reason to believe Flynn committed treason.”

“I felt terrible about that,” Sullivan said, after the prosecutor notes Flynn’s conduct as a foreign agent ended in mid-Nov 2016. “I’m not suggesting he committed treason,” Sullivan added.

Flynn’s lawyer said he held “nothing back” in the cooperation deal.

* * *

One week after a federal judge handed down a three-year prison sentence to former Trump attorney Michael Cohen – and more than a year after National Security Advisor Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to charges of lying to the FBI about meetings he had with foreign officials – Flynn is appearing Tuesday before US District Judge Emmet Sullivan in a Virginia courthouse, where his sentence is imminent.

During a break in the hearing, which was requested by Flynn’s legal team, the former National Security Advisor was given the opportunity to consult with his lawyers about whether to delay the sentencing until Flynn has finished cooperating with prosecutors. The hearing is set to resume at 12:30 pm.

Tim Ryan@tjryan93

We’re recessing until 12:30, at Flynn’s request.

Sullivan offered the recess to Flynn while he was going over the seriousness of the offense and shortly after saying he could not promise he would not sentence Flynn to jail time.

It began with Flynn admitting he knew it was illegal to lie to the FBI, and rejecting an opportunity to postpone the hearing. Crucially, Flynn’s lawyer said he didn’t believe his client was “entrapped” by the FBI.

  • FLYNN SAYS WON’T CHALLENGE CIRCUMSTANCES OF FBI INTERVIEW
  • FLYNN ADMITS HE KNEW LYING TO THE FBI WAS A CRIME
  • FLYNN REJECTS JUDGE’S OFFER FOR SECOND ATTORNEY TO REVIEW PLEA
  • FLYNN SAYS HE CONTINUES TO ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY IN THE CASE
  • FLYNN DECLINES JUDGE’S OFFER TO POSTPONE THE HEARING
  • FLYNN’S LAWYER SAYS HE DOESN’T BELIEVE FLYNN WAS ENTRAPPED
  • JUDGE CONCLUDES NO REASON TO REJECT FLYNN’S GUILTY PLEA

After accepting Flynn’s plea, Judge Sullivan warned that Flynn’s was a “very serious offense.”

Tim Ryan@tjryan93

Sullivan is now going over the facts of Flynn’s case. He’s largely reading from the statement of offense filed in December 2017 when Flynn first entered his plea.

Tim Ryan@tjryan93

Sullivan going into his sentencing considerations now.

“This is a very serious offense,” Sullivan said. “A high ranking senior official of the government making false statements to the Federal Bureau of Investigation while on the physical premises of the White House.”

He also revealed that Flynn could have been indicted in a case involving a Turkish banker accused of helping Iran evade sanctions.

  • PROSECUTOR SAYS FLYNN COULD’VE BEEN INDICTED IN LOBBYING CASE
  • PROSECUTOR SAYS FLYNN HELPED IN TURKEY LOBBYING CASE

Prosecutors also noted that Flynn could continue to cooperate.

Tim Ryan@tjryan93

Sullivan going into his sentencing considerations now.

“This is a very serious offense,” Sullivan said. “A high ranking senior official of the government making false statements to the Federal Bureau of Investigation while on the physical premises of the White House.”

Tim Ryan@tjryan93

Prosecutor Brandon Van Grack says “it remains a possibility” that Flynn will cooperate with the government going forward.

Flynn provided “substantial assistance” on an indictment unsealed in Virginia yesterday against two of his associates

1

Tim Ryan@tjryan93

Sullivan is making sure Flynn still wants to go to sentencing today. He notes that Flynn could still cooperate more with the government, which could let him ask for a lower sentence.

After confirming that Flynn would still cooperate, the judge’s statements took a harsh turn, with the judge accusing Flynn of having ‘sold out his country.’

“All along you were an unregistered agent of a foreign country while serving as the national security adviser of the president of the United States…Arguably that undermines everything that flag over here stands for. Arguably, you sold your country out.”

He then asked prosecutors considered charging Flynn with treason, to which they hesitated before replying that it wasn’t considered.

  • ARGUABLY, YOU SOLD YOUR COUNTRY OUT,’ JUDGE TELLS FLYNN
  • AGGRAVATING CIRCUMSTANCES ARE `SERIOUS,’ JUDGE TELLS FLYNN
  • JUDGE AGAIN OFFERS FLYNN MORE TIME TO COOPERATE BEFORE SENTENCE
  • JUDGE ASKS IF FLYNN MIGHT HAVE BEEN CHARGED WITH TREASON
  • PROSECUTOR SAYS `HESITANT TO ANSWER’ BUT NOT SAME AS FARA

According to the Hill, Flynn’s sentencing will be a “milestone” in the Mueller probe, which has spanned 19 months. As he approached the courthouse in Virginia, Flynn waded through what one journalist described as a “mosh pit” of demonstrators.

Flynn’s appearance in D.C. federal court before U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan will be viewed as a key milestone in an investigation that has prodded along for 19 months amidst high public intrigue and increasing vitriol from the president.

It was expected that Flynn wouldn’t receive significant jail time thanks to his “substantial assistance” to Mueller (the special counsel recommended a lenient sentence). Though Flynn was facing up to six months in prison. As a reminder, Flynn has sat for 19 separate sessions with the special counsel amounting to 60 hours of questioning.

Flynn

Just hours before the decision was handed down, the special counsel last night produced a heavily redacted ‘302’ document detailing then-national security adviser Michael Flynn’s interview with FBI agents Peter Strzok and Joe Pientka. The document showed Flynn was repeatedly asked about his contacts with former Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak and in each instance, Flynn denied (or did not recall) any such conversations. That release followed the FBI’s refusal to release the 302, which detailed Pientka and Strzok’s meeting with Flynn, to clear up suspicions that the document had been tampered with following reports that the two agents did not believe Flynn had been lying. Flynn and his attorneys alleged in a filing last week that Flynn believes he was mislead by the FBI, which Mueller dismissed as an attempt to “minimize the seriousness” of Flynn’s crimes.

Earlier in the day, President Trump tweeted “good luck” to Flynn.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Good luck today in court to General Michael Flynn. Will be interesting to see what he has to say, despite tremendous pressure being put on him, about Russian Collusion in our great and, obviously, highly successful political campaign. There was no Collusion!

After initially denying that he had discussed sanctions and a United Nations Security Council resolution during the presidential transition with Sergei Kislyak, the Russian ambassador to the US at the tie, Flynn eventually admitted that he had lied to Vice President Mike Pence about his contacts with Kislyak. He also confessed to lying to the FBI.

end

Trump blinks to avoid the shutdown: he will find other ways to fund the 5 billion dollars for th wall.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Blinks; White House Will Avoid Shutdown, Find Other Ways To Fund Wall

The White House on Tuesday said that it wants to avoid a partial government shutdown and has found other ways to fund President Trump’s border wall, according to spokeswoman Sarah Sanders.

Congress and President Trump have just four days to come to an agreement before large portions of the federal government begin to shut down. At issue is a fight over $5 billion in funding from Congress for the border wall, which Democrats led by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) have flat out rejected.

Sanders told Fox News “We have other ways that we can get to that $5 billion,” adding “At the end of the day we don’t want to shut down the government, we want to shut down the border.” She then said that the White House was looking into other funding sources and believed that it could be accomplished legally.

There are certainly a number of different funding sources that we’ve identified that we can use, that we can couple with money that would be given through congressional appropriations that would help us get to that $5 billion that the president needs in order to protect our border,” said Sanders.

None of that sounds like Mexico paying for it, but we digress…

Sanders’s comments come after a series of miscalculations by Republicans in recent days over how to try and get Democrats to sign onto $5 billion to pay for the construction of a wall along the Mexico border.

Last week, Trump said he would be “proud” to shut down the government over the issue, a statement that congressional Republicans openly said muddied their messaging. –WaPo

On Sunday, Schumer told Meet The Press that President Trump would not get funding for the wall “in any form.”

Embedded video

Meet the Press

@MeetThePress

WATCH: @SenSchumer says we can’t let the president’s “temper tantrum” cause a government shutdown. #MTP #IfItsSunday

On Monday evening, frustrated Senate Republicans told the press they were expecting a formal proposal from the White House to avert a shutdown – perhaps around 5 p.m., however that never happened and the Senate moved on to other issues such as an overhaul of the criminal justice system.

“We’ll continue to have these conversations with both Senate and House Republicans and Democrats. Our team has been in constant communication,” said Sanders. “We’re going to continue to do that. I’m not going to negotiate here, but we’ve been talking to them just as recently as this morning.”

For now, while the Treasury Bill curve has improved, it remains anxiously kinked around the potential shutdown date (as demand for pre-shutdown liquidity inverts the curve)…

END
The clowns are at it again!! The Democrats have balked at a GOP offer of 1.6 billion dillars for border security and an additional one billion dollars in flexible funding for trump’s immigration policies..ie. a slush fund.
Schumer wants no part of the wall!!
(courtesy zerohedge)

Shutdown? Dems Balk At GOP Budget Over $1 Billion Border Security “Slush Fund”

After the White House backed down on Trump’s $5 billion in wall funding, Democrats led by Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York rejected a GOP proposal which included $1.6 billion for border security and an additional $1 billion in flexible funding for Trump’s immigration policies.

Schumer said  that THE Democrats would not accept a billion-dollar “slush fund.”

Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) says he’s “in consultation” with the White House about a path forward, and that the administration is “extremely flexible on this issue,” according to AP.

When asked if he’s confident that a partial shutdown during Christmas can be avoided, McConnell replied “Yeah, I am.”

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

McConnell says that after Schumer rejected his offer, “I’m in conversation with the White House on the way forward” for a gov’t funding bill that Trump will sign.

View image on Twitter

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

“I believe incoming Speaker Pelosi has little latitude to make a deal,” McConnell says with a grin, hinting she’s worried about her left flank.

@sahilkapur

REPORTER: “Are you convinced we won’t see a shutdown over Christmas?”

McCONNELL: “Yeah, I am.”

Schumer says he will stick with his two offers to avoid a shutdown; a stopgap bill across the board, or a stopgap to fund the Department of Homeland Security with appropriate packages for the rest of the agencies subject to closure.

Earlier Tuesday White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said that the Senate has “thrown out a number of ideas,” and that when something passes, the White House will evaluate it. On the topic of funding the wall, Sanders told Fox News We have other ways that we can get to that $5 billion,” adding “At the end of the day we don’t want to shut down the government, we want to shut down the border.” She then said that the White House was looking into other funding sources and believed that it could be accomplished legally.

There are certainly a number of different funding sources that we’ve identified that we can use, that we can couple with money that would be given through congressional appropriations that would help us get to that $5 billion that the president needs in order to protect our border,” said Sanders.

Schumer disagreed – saying “They need congressional approval – they’re not getting it for the wall, plain and simple.”

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

Schumer says he’s sticking with his two offers to prevent a shutdown: a stopgap bill across the board OR a stopgap for DHS funding and approps packages for the rest.

Embedded video

Alana Mastrangelo

@ARmastrangelo

What changed, Chuck Schumer?

END
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
AND SPECIAL THANKS TO CHRIS POWELL OF GATA FOR SENDING THIS TO US:
FROM MONDAY
No reporter has received more important Spygate leaks than John Solomon.  On Thursday night, he reported another bombshell: There is a DIA document that completely exonerates Gen. Flynn, but it is being withheld, even from Trump.  Apparently, Senator Grassley knew about this in August 2017.
 
@seanmdav: Earlier this week, Judge Emmet G. Sullivan ordered DOJ to produce the FBI 302 of the FBI interview of Flynn. Those documents were just filed. There is no 302 of the interviewInstead, there’s a 302 of an interview of *Strzok* talking about the interview 6 months later.
    The FBI 302 of the interview with Strzok about the Flynn interview, however, explicitly references a 302 written up about the Flynn interview by a redacted official, who is likely Joe Pientka. DOJ did not include that 302 in today’s filing.  Where is the original Flynn 302?
     But it’s not just the missing Flynn 302 that raises red flags about this investigation. It’s the fact that the Strzok 302 interview–the sole basis for the Flynn charge–was conducted just 4 days after Lisa Page was fired and days before Strzok himself was fired by Mueller.
    But the August 302 on the July interview of Strzok specifically references a 302 of the January Flynn interview and accompanying notes compiled by Strzok’s interviewing partner (likely Joe Pientka). Where is that 302 and where are the notes?
 
@johncardillo: Mueller’s rebuttal basically admits, “We might have broken the rules, but Flynn admitted he lied so give us a pass.”  That’s exactly what the Constitution exists to prevent.
 
@ProfMJCleveland:  Federal judge enters order granting DOJ attorneys access to sealed documents in Enron case involving Mueller’s “pitbull” Andrew Weissmann Here’s the backdrop to the lawsuit.http://thefederalist.com/2018/11/08/robert-muellers-lead-prosecutor-history-ethics-violations/
    (READ. THE. LINKS.) Court’s order gave DOJ access to sealed documents INCLUDING ones I had not (yet) requested.  Only 1 document not unsealed… WHAT is up then with not allowing GOVERNMENT access to 441???…
 
The WSJ’s @KimStrassel: 1) So this is what @Comey told the House last week about agents who interviewed Flynn: “the conclusion of the investigators was he was obviously lying…” 2) And here is what the Strzok 302 just filed to Judge Sullivan says: Both agents “had the impression at the time that Flynn was not lying or did not think he was lying.”…
 
Nearly 156 People Leave Chicago Daily: Demographic Trends
In Chicago, New York and Los Angelesthe three areas with a triple-digit daily exodus, people are fleeing at a greater rate than just a few years earlier. Soaring home prices and high local taxes are pushing local residents out and scaring off potential movers from other parts of the country…
 
We have to get people off welfare. Welfare is not the answer – it destroys the individual and it destroys the family. The only answer is to find jobs for people.” – Renowned conservative Bobby Kennedy in 1967

-END-

Christopher Steele: Hillary Clinton was preparing to challenge 2016 election results
British ex-spy Christopher Steele, who wrote the Democrat-financed anti-Trump dossier, said in a court case that he was hired by a Democratic law firm in preparation for Hillary Clinton challenging the results of the 2016 presidential election… In an answer to interrogatories, Mr. Steele wrote: “Fusion’s immediate client was law firm Perkins Coie. It engaged Fusion to obtain information necessary for Perkins Coie LLP to provide legal advice on the potential impact of Russian involvement on the legal validity of the outcome of the 2016 US Presidential election…
Ex-fed prosecutor Sid Powell: New Facts Indicate Mueller Destroyed Evidence, Obstructed Justice
The Supreme Court held long ago in Brady v. Maryland that the Constitution requires the prosecution, which holds all the cards in a criminal case, to give the defense all evidence favorable to the defendant…    The evidence strongly suggests Mueller violated Brady, destroyed or suppressed evidence, and obstructed justice in violation of 18 USC §1512(c). He has disgraced himself and the Department of Justice. Mueller’s time is up…    
https://dailycaller.com/2018/12/16/mueller-destroyed-evidence/
[Uranium One Whistleblower attorney] @VicToensing: When Mueller was told @petestrzok and Page had been texting anti-@realDonaldTrump messages, he secretly fired them and purposely let their phone info be erased.Any of us would be indicted for obstruction of justice.
@Barnes_Law: Here is reality every lawyer in criminal law knows: if Manafort hadn’t worked for Trump, if Flynn hadn’t worked for Trump, if Cohen hadn’t worked Trump, none of them are ever targeted or prosecuted. Also, you could throw a pebble in DC, and likely hit somebody guilty of the same.
    If “unregistered foreign lobbying” was equally prosecuted, half of Washington would be in prison.
Where’s that Podesta indictment? How is it the biggest secret foreign lobbyist hasn’t been charged yet? Probably a coincidence he’s a big Democrat tied by his brother to the Hillary campaign that would completely gut the narrative?
end
I WILL YOU ON WEDNESDAY
H
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: