GOLD: $1278.60 UP $8.65 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)
Silver: $15.26 UP 22 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Closing access prices:
Gold : 1275.80
silver: $15.24
For comex gold and silver:
DEC
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR DEC CONTRACT: 47 NOTICE(S) FOR 4700 OZ (0.146 tonnes)
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 7486 NOTICES FOR 748600 OZ (23.284 TONNES)
SILVER
FOR DECEMBER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
63 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 315,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month: 4384 for 21,920,000
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3727: down 52
Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3564 DOWN 215
end
REMEMBER THAT OPTION’S EXPIRY ENDS THIS MONDAY SO EXCEPT OUR USUAL GOLD/SILVER WHACKING TOMORROW AND PROBABLY EARLY MONDAY.
XXXX
again either JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs take a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.
today’ JPMorgan 5/47 contracts
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2018 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,269.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/26/2018 DELIVERY DATE: 12/28/2018
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
323 C HSBC 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 21
661 C JP MORGAN 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 15 12
905 C ADM 11
991 H CME 28
____________________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 47 47
MONTH TO DATE: 7,486
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2453 CONTRACTS FROM 173,685 DOWN TO 176,138 WITH YESTERDAY’S STRONG 27 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:
2990 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 2990 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2990 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 175 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2990 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 14.955 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 27 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:
JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);
FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ
FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ
FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S
FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.
FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND
NOW 21.925 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC: 28,683 CONTRACTS (FOR 18 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 28,683 CONTRACTS) OR 143.42 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1593 CONTRACTS OR 7.967 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC: 143.42 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 20.42% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 2,820.47 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018: 244.95 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018: 236.67 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018: 385.75 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018: 210.05 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018: 345.43 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018: 172.84 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018: 205.23 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018: 167,05 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018: 224.875 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR NOVEMBER /2018: 247.18 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2453 WITH THE 27 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //MONDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2990 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .
TODAY WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED: 5443 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
i.e 2990 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2990 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 27 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.04 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .80 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 126% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 63 NOTICE(S) FOR 315,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.
AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./AND NOW DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).
IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST STRANGELY FELL BY 4002 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 438,725 DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $0.15//WEDNESDAY’S TRADING)
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 8906 CONTRACTS:
DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 8906 CONTACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 438,725. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4,904 CONTRACTS: 4002 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8906 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN: 4904 CONTRACTS OR 490,400 OZ = 15.25 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS VERY GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $0.15
YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5343 EFP’S ISSUED.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 159,096 CONTRACTS OR 15,909,600 OZ OR 494.83 TONNES (18 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8838 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 494.83 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 494.83/2550 x 100% TONNES = 19.37% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE: 7272.79 TONNES *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018: 649.45 TONNES (20 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018: 741.89 TONNES (22 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018: 713.84 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018: 693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018 650.71 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018 605.5 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018 488.54 TONNES (23 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018 470.64 TONNES (19 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018 543.92 TONNES (23 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018: 552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR DEC 2018 (20 TRADING DAYS)
TOTAL FOR 2018
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($0.15) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK WEDNESDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8906 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8906 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 4904 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
8906 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4002 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 15.25 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $0.15 IN MONDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX
we had: 47 notice(s) filed upon for 4700 oz of gold at the comex.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD...
WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY
A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: AND THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!
THERE IS NO PHYSICAL GOLD FOR THEM TO OBTAIN
WE ADDED A MASSIVE 15.88 TONNES TO ITS INVENTORY
/GLD INVENTORY 790.02 TONNES
Inventory rests tonight: 790.02 tonnes.
TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY
SLV/
WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY:
A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY
I) A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 94,000 OZ
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.223 MILLION OZ.
end
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2453 CONTRACTS from 173,685 UP TO 176,138 AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 1 1/3 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..
.
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
2990 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2990 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2453 CONTRACTS TO THE 2990 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 5443 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 27.21 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., 7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. AND NOW 21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER.
RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 27 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZE 2990 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
(report Harvey)
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.21 POINTS OR 0.61% //Hang Sang CLOSED /The Nikkei closed UP 750.56 POINTS OR 3.86% / Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.84%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.8656 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 45.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and 53.56 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED
//. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8656AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8815: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED
3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 C/ CHINA
i)This is not a good report for China: their engine or industrial production collapsed in November and they are set for a lousy December as well
( zerohedge)
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
i)EUROPE/ECB
The real failure of QE was providing far too much liquidity and this will leave the ECB with a mess on its hands
(courtesy Daniel Lacalle/Mises
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
i)TURKEY/USA SYRIA
Erdogan invites Trump who has yet to agree to the meeting. Turkey has two deals it must consider: USA defense missile systems and Russian systems. Where will they face?
( zerohedge)
ii)RUSSIA/ISRAEL
iii)SYRIA/UAE/SAUDI ARABIA/ARAB LEAGUE
after 8 years, the UAE is now set to open an embassy in Damascus and thus open diplomatic relations. With that the gulf nations are now reportedly leading efforts to readmit Syria into the Arab League. Thus Sunnis’ and Shites will be in the same room and not pledging to fight each other. The only enemy are the extremists. Trump is asking the Saudi’s to help pay for the reconstruction of Syria and their pockets are deeper than Iran and Russia
( zerohedge)
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
i)Venezuela
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
ii)Chris Powell takes on Dennis Gartman
a must read..
( Chris Powell/GATA)
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)
MARKET TRADING
a)Wednesday: (today)
ii)Market data/
USA jobs outlook (USA confidence) crashes the most on record
(courtesy zerohedge)
a)The Dow rose by 1089 points yesterday. The reason for this is explained in the following commentary.
AND NO DOUBT THE SAME REASON FOR TODAY’S SURGE.
(courtesy zerohedge)
b)If the shutdown continues into February, there will be no cash for our SNAP (food stamp) program. The Dept of Agriculture states that it has enough money for the stamp program until the end of January
iv)SWAMP STORIES
a)Guiliani: Mueller must be investigated for destruction of FBI evidence after he wiped clean both Page’s and Strzok’s phone text messages
( zerohedge)
b)Shutdown continues as the House GOP states that there will be no vote this week
Let us head over to the comex:
We are now in the non active delivery month of DECEMBER and here in this front month of December we now have 64 contracts standing for a GAIN of 52 contracts. We had 0 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we gained 52 contracts or an additional 260,000 oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.
After December we have the non active January contract month and here we saw a LOSS of 55 contracts DOWN to 1582 contracts. February saw a 148 contract GAIN to stand at 335. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a GAIN of 2201 contracts UP to 144.234
WE HAVE 2 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE IN THE NON ACTIVE JANUARY SILVER CONTRACT MONTH:
FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH AND JANUARY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH
ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY
BY THE END OF DECEMBER: 33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.
ON FIRST DAY NOTICE JAN 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD A GOOD 2.695 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY’
AT THE CONCLUSION OF JAN/2018 WE HAD 3.650 MILLION OZ STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NORM FOR SILVER
.
i) Out of Scotia: 128.600 oz (4 kilobars)
Russia would like to mine Venezuela’s gold
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2018-12-26 19:12. Section: Daily Dispatches
Russian Companies Get Green Light to Mine Gold in Venezuela
From Russia Today, Moscow
Wednesday, December 26, 2018
Venezuelan authorities have offered to let Russian companies take part in gold exploration and gold mining in the country, according to the Russian ambassador to Venezuela, Vladimir Zaemsky.
“As for Russia’s participation in gold mining or other mining projects, Venezuela has made a wide range of interesting proposals that are under consideration by interested Russian operators,” the ambassador said.
The official added that Caracas is deeply interested in cooperating with Russia in exploration of the country’s solid extractable resources, including gold, diamonds, and coltan, which is used for the extraction of elements such as niobium and tantalum. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.rt.com/business/447438-venezuela-russia-gold-exploration/
end
Chris Powell takes on Dennis Gartman
a must read..
(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)
Gartman calls GATA ‘always’ bullish on gold but mining industry disagrees
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2018-12-26 19:38. Section: Daily Dispatches
2:55p ET Wednesday, December 26, 2018
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Thanks to GATA’s old friend, gold market analyst John Brimelow, publisher of the Brimelow Gold Jottings letter, for calling attention to Dennis Gartman’s comments about GATA in today’s edition of The Gartman Letter:
“The major news over the weekend is from GATA, a group that in the past has found fault with The Gartman Letter on an all-too-regular basis over the years for there are times when we’ve been bearish of gold and GATA is
always, always bullish. Even when we are bullish of gold, we are never bullish enough to satisfy the men and women at GATA.
…
“That said, on GATA’s website it is being reported that Russian buying of gold is swiftly approaching actual international purchases, for heretofore the buying by the reserve bank has always been done as the bank has bought domestic production. If this is true — and as yet we cannot confirm that it is true — then this is really quite supportive of gold in the long and the short term and shall serve to spur us to be longer of gold than we are already. Certainly it does not spur us to being less long of it. At least, certainly that.”
Gartman’s comments can use some clarification.
First, of course, the report that the Bank of Russia’s gold purchases seem about to overtake the country’s domestic production must be credited to Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly:
http://www.gata.org/node/18719
GATA can take credit only for supporting and publicizing Manly’s work, which long has been heroic.
Second, Gartman misconstrues whatever criticism GATA has directed at him over the years. That criticism has not been for being insufficiently bullish about gold. To the contrary, GATA is largely indifferent to price predictions for the monetary metal.
Rather, Gartman, like many other market analysts, has disappointed GATA over the years for not candidly acknowledging central bank intervention against the gold price, though his letter in the last couple of years has done better in that respect.
Further, GATA is not really “always, always” bullish on gold in the conventional sense.
Rather, GATA has noted the huge naked short position in gold that has been carried by central banks, using bullion banks as intermediaries and using outright sales, swaps, and leases so that each ounce of real metal in the central banking and bullion banking system is supporting scores of investor claims against it, perhaps as many as a hundred claims.
This inflation of the supposed supply of investment gold has been the mechanism with which central banks have kept the gold price far below the true rate of inflation in the world, thereby crippling a competitor to their currencies and particularly a competitor to the world reserve currency, the U.S. dollar.
Evidence of this abounds. For example:
— Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s testimony to Congress in 1998 that the purpose of gold leasing by central banks is price suppression:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htm
— The secret March 1999 report of the staff of the International Monetary Fund affirming that central banks conceal their gold swaps and leases to facilitate their surreptitious intervention in the gold and currency markets:
http://www.gata.org/node/12016
— The admission in 2005 by William R. White, chief of the monetary and economic department of the Bank for International Settlements, that a primary purpose of central bank cooperation is “the provision of international credits and joint efforts to influence asset prices (especially gold and foreign exchange) in circumstances where this might be thought useful”:
— The heavy involvement of the BIS in gold leases and swaps, which is confirmed, if largely concealed, by the bank’s monthly statements of account:
http://www.gata.org/node/18669
— The many admissions by government-controlled news organizations in China that Western governments rig the gold price:
http://www.gata.org/node/10380
http://www.gata.org/node/10416
— And the documentation in the archives of the U.S. State Department showing that driving gold out of the world financial system to protect the dollar is longstanding U.S. policy:
http://www.gata.org/node/13310
In a fractional-reserve gold banking system as overstretched as this, the upward potential for the gold price is enormous. But the central bank and government power supporting that system is also enormous, and for cautioning investors about it, GATA is typically ostracized from the gold-bullish crowd, dominated as it is by mining companies that are interested mainly in building their shareholder base and getting their share prices up. Thus GATA is often perceived as having a bearish influence on the gold price, if not as being bearish itself.
If GATA was really perceived as “always, always” bullish on gold, it wouldn’t increasingly be excluded from conferences that, in part, aim to sell mining shares to investors. If gold mining companies wanted to break the price-suppression policy of governments, they might support GATA, help spread its message, and protest the policy to their government representatives. They don’t precisely because they consider GATA not bullish enough on gold.
Anyway, GATA is grateful to Gartman for mentioning the organization in his letter from time to time, and maybe this explanation will correct his misapprehension about us.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
the metal Vanadium skyrockets in price form 5 dollars per lb to 29 dollars per pound after China shocks the market with new regulations to strengthen its steel
(courtesy zerohedge)
Vanadium Skyrockets After China Shocks Market With New Regulations
The global scramble for a little known metal called vanadium is officially underway.
The metal, which when used in small amounts can help strengthen steel significantly, is in high demand following new Chinese regulations on infrastructure and buildings. The new rules, which came as a result of a 2008 earthquake that devastated part of China, are aiming to phase out the use of low strength steel in building projects, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The market for the metal is very small, with about 80,000 metric tons produced each year. Roughly 90% of that is used in small amounts in projects like bridges and skyscrapers. While two years ago it cost less than $5 per pound, it surged as high is $29 per pound last month.
Supply of vanadium globally has been “drawn down to nearly nothing,” according to Jack Bedder, director at a London-based research and consulting firm.
The new Chinese regulations set out specifications for three high-strength grades of steel that each require vanadium. While many of the miners of this metal have been shut down, the surge in pricing is reinvigorating the interests of numerous companies. Macquarie group said that global demand for the metal could be up 25% in coming years.
About 14% of the world’s vanadium comes directly from mines and it is usually found along side of minerals like iron ore, coal and aluminum. It’s relatively abundant but it hasn’t been mined on its own because prices have been too low to make it worth it. As a result, the new boom has brought in smaller miners that are setting up next to major mines, like Energy Fuels’ Utah mill.
Curtis Moore, vice president of marketing and corporate development at Lakewood, Colorado’s Energy Fuels Inc., stated: “It’s hard to say whether we will have enough capacity to bring in other miners. Certainly we are open to it.”
The surge is also helping fuel and re-energize mining projects worldwide. At Energy Fuels, Inc., they plan to start collecting discarded vanadium from its mill in Utah. In addition to this, the miner is also going to be revisiting old mines that it has already shut down, but that also likely contain significant amounts of the metal.
Additionally, Largo Resources Ltd. in Brazil is spitting out record volumes of the metal from its Maracás Menchen mine and is aiming to lift its production capacity by 25%. The company, based in Toronto, is considering adding to its infrastructure and placing a new facility near its mine simply to focus on vanadium them.
Mark Smith, Largo’s chief executive said: “The market needs new production in a big way.”
US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case
- The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
- A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
- In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.
CNBC.com
The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.
The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.
The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.
Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.
Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.
In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”
“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.
J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.
Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”
Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.
In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.
Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.
Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.
In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.
Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.
Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.
The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.
-END-
Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST
i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.8656/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/
//OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8815 /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 15.21 POINTS OR 0.61%
HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 172.50 POINTS OR .67%
2. Nikkei closed UP 750.56 POINTS OR 3.86%
3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED
/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.77/Euro RISES TO 1.1397
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.76/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 45.34 and Brent: 53.35
3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.24%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.81% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.40%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.57: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM
3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.40
3k Gold at $1273.15 silver at:15.11 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 61/100 in roubles/dollar) 69.34
3m oil into the 45 dollar handle for WTI and 53 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.76 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9915 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1284 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017
3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.24%
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.77% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.03%
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
6. TURKISH LIRA: UP TO 5.2862
S&P Futures Tumble As Epic One-Day Rally Fizzles
On any other day, a 1.5% drop in the S&P futures would be cause for alarm; however after yesterday’s historic 5% surge in US stocks it merely prompts a shrug, because even with ES sliding -36 points, it is roughly where it was trading at 3:35pm yesterday.
Whether because we went from a near record oversold market to overbought in one day, or just because traders concluded that yesterday’s surge was nothing more than a bear market rally, the kind of which we saw on so many occasions during the depths of the financial crisis…
… nearly a third of yesterday’s rally fizzling, wiped out in overnight trading, with S&P futures sliding for the past 6 hours and after an early spike which pushed the Emini briefly above 2480, the contract has since dropped as much as 60 points and is prompting renewed concerns about the sustainability of yesterday’s bullish reversal.
That said, even with the previous session’s surge, it’s still a horrible month for American stocks, with the S&P 500 down almost 11%.
Meanwhile, even as futures dropped, world stocks bounced off a near two-year low on Thursday, lagging Wall Street’s dramatic surge, though the first fall in Chinese industrial profits in three years and renewed Italian banking worries offered a sobering reminder of the problems weighing on the world economy.
“The relentless selling which prevailed leading up to Christmas has mercifully halted as U.S. stock markets recorded significant gains,” said Stephen Innes, trader at OANDA. According to Innes, the rally was partly due to a Mastercard Inc report that sales during the U.S. holiday shopping season rose the most in six years in 2018, helping allay concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. “The surge in online purchases over the holiday season should be a reminder for the markets never to underestimate the purchasing power of the U.S. consumer.”
Stocks in Asia and Europe took their cue from the Wednesday rally and opened strongly, pushing the MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, 0.4% higher. The index had already spiked 2.3% in the previous session, rising off a 22-month low hit on Christmas Eve.
However, the global rally fizzled in Europe where shares opened higher 0.5%, then erased most of the early gains and the Stoxx 600 was trading down -0.9% at last check, dragged lower by Italian stocks. Milan was hit by renewed concerns over the country’s banking sector after lender Banca Carige was denied a cash call by its largest shareholder. The news weighed on Italian government bonds too, curbing a month-long rally and pushing 10-year yields higher on the day.
Top European News
- Italian Bonds Slip as Traders Prepare for Final Auctions of 2018
- EU Won’t Allow France 2nd Deficit Overshoot: Oettinger to Funke
- ECB Sees Ongoing Economic Growth With Increased Downside Risks
- European Retail Shares Lead Gains With Tesco, Kering Rising
- Euro Zone’s Northern Tip Ends Year on a Low as Confidence Sinks
Earlier, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rose 0.6% and away from eight-week lows while Japan’s Nikkei managed to pull out of bear market territory, to closing 3.9% higher while Australian shares jumped 1.9 percent. But Chinese shares did not join the rebound, with mainland shares closing at session lows as well as Hong Kong down 0.4 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index erased morning advance and closed at session lows as China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. fell the most in more than two months, after Sinopec shares tumbled as much as 8.6% after the company announced that Chen Bo, president of Chinese oil trading giant Unipec, and Zhan Qi, co.’s communist party secretary, have been suspended.
Also, as reported previously, earnings at China’s industrial firms dropped in November for the first time in nearly three years.
Top Asian News
- China’s Industrial Profits Drop for First Time Since End 2015
- Vietnam Economy Remains Outperformer as Growth Tops 7% Mark
- Trade Losses at China Oil Giant Said to Spur Sinopec Suspensions
- Huawei’s Revenue Growth Rebounds Despite ‘Storm- Tossed’ 2018
- NEC Pushes Deeper Into Services With $1.2 Billion Deal for KMD
- PBOC’s Ma Says Replenishing Bank Capital Key to GDP Growth: CSJ
Meanwhile, US Treasuries led advances in global bonds amid renewed skepticism about recent risk-asset gains and rekindled demand for the safety of government debt. Yields on 10-year U.S. notes fell toward the lowest level since April as the market was supported by a futures block trade equivalent to a DV01 of $717,000. As a result, the 10Y has cut its losses in half, and was yielding 2.772%, 5bps lower than where it closed Wednesday’s session.
The dollar also gave up some of its overnight gains, but losses were limited to around 0.3% against a basket of currencies. Against the yen, a perceived safe haven, it was off 0.5% at 110.82 yen. It had risen nearly 1% overnight, booking its largest single-day gain against the yen since late April. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index pared Wednesday’s rally with the dollar slipping against most peers; yen and euro both gained at least 0.4% while Aussie and kiwi drop on renewed China growth concerns.
Commodities were also hit, with concerns over a faltering global economy and signs of a crude oil glut pressured oil prices, sending Brent futures 2.4% lower to $53.26 a barrel and partly reversing the previous day’s 8% jump, the biggest in two years. Another safe-haven, gold, was up 0.4 percent, remaining just below a six-month peak hit earlier this week.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 1.6% to 2,432.50
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 333.53
- MXAP up 1.8% to 145.41
- MXAPJ up 0.4% to 471.83
- Nikkei up 3.9% to 20,077.62
- Topix up 4.9% to 1,501.63
- Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 25,478.88
- Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 2,483.09
- Sensex up 0.6% to 35,853.59
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.9% to 5,597.20
- Kospi up 0.02% to 2,028.44
- German 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 0.226%
- Euro up 0.4% to $1.1396
- Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 2.471%
- Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 1.398%
- Brent futures down 1.7% to $53.54/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,273.46
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 96.77
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- Donald Trump said that he has no plans to withdraw American troops from Iraq, speaking to reporters at Joint Base al Asad in Iraq on Wednesday, making his first visit to troops in a combat zone as commander-in-chief a week after dismissing his defense secretary in a dispute over Middle East strategy
- Japanese shares rallied for a second day, with the Topix index climbing more than 5% and poised for its biggest advance in two years
- Oil held its biggest gain in two years, after being swept up in a rebound across risk assets spurred by optimism about the global economy
- A U.S. government delegation will travel to Beijing in the week of Jan. 7 to hold trade talks with Chinese officials, two people familiar with the matter said
- President Donald Trump won’t try to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, a top White House economic adviser said. Kevin Hassett told reporters “yes, of course, a hundred percent” on Wednesday after he was asked whether Powell’s job is safe
- President Trump said he won’t relent on the partial government shutdown unless Congress funds his proposed border wall, and wouldn’t say whether he’d accept less than $5 billion for the project
- Profits of Chinese industrial companies fell for the first time in almost three years, highlighting the effects of slowing economic growth, falling prices, and the trade war with the U.S.
- Replenishing capital of Chinese banks is key to boost lending growth and support the economy, People’s Bank of China adviser Ma Jun was cited as saying in a front-page report in China Securities Journal
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,500, prior 214,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.68m, prior 1.69m
- 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.25%, prior 0.2%
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 58.8
- 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 133.7, prior 135.7; Present Situation, prior 172.7; Expectations, prior 111
- 10am: U.S. Census Bureau to delay New Home Sales data amid shutdown
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.21 POINTS OR 0.61% //Hang Sang CLOSED /The Nikkei closed UP 750.56 POINTS OR 3.86% / Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.84%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.8656 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 45.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and 53.56 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED
//. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8656 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8815: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED
3 a NORTH KOREA/USA
3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS
3 C CHINA
This is not a good report for China: their engine or industrial production collapsed in November and they are set for a lousy December as well
(courtesy zerohedge)
China Industrial Profits Collapse In November, Set To Worsen
For the first time in almost three years, the profits of Chinese industrial companies tumbled in November, highlighting the effects of slowing economic growth, falling prices, and the trade war with the US.
“Slowdown in sales growth and factory gate inflation, combined with rising costs, led to the decline of industrial profits in November,” the NBS said in the statement on its website.
Profits contracted 1.8% year-on-year in November, vs. an expansion of 3.6% yoy in October. This is the first year-over-year contraction in industrial profits since 2015. In month-on-month terms, profits fell meaningfully after seasonal adjustment by around 7.2% (non-annualized), vs. a contraction of 0.1% in October. In absolute level terms, profits in November were the lowest of the year.
Among major sectors, profit growth turned negative in computer manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and pressing, and chemical product manufacturing, but improved in general equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery manufacturing and automobile manufacturing.
As Goldman Sachs notes, compared with November 2017, profit margins (total profits divided by revenues from principal business) were materially lower by around 0.6pp, contributing to the fall in headline profit year-over-year growth. On a 12-month rolling average basis, both upstream and downstream industries’ margins narrowed. Revenue growth decelerated in November, with PPI inflation modestly lower in November vs. October, and the implied real industrial sales growth slowed in November, to around 4.5% yoy based on our estimate, vs. 5% yoy in October.
However, flashing red flags everywhere, Bloomberg notes that the official year-on-year growth rate for profits began diverging from the growth rate calculated from the nominal profit figures in 2017, and that continued to be an issue in November’s release.
This discrepancy has led many to question the veracity of the official data.
And more worrying still, looking ahead, industrial profit growth continues to face headwinds, as Goldman expects both industrial production growth and PPI inflation to soften next year, especially in Q1.
And before investors get all gung ho about “bad news” being “good news” for global markets – because, as the narrative goes, the worse economic data gets, the more monetary and fiscal easing Chinese authorities will unleash – they have been trying this for over six months…
And, as confirmed by today’s collapse in profits, it’s not working.
Trump Considering Order To Ban Purchases Of Huawei, ZTE Equipment
After the US government elicited outrage from the Chinese due to its attempts to convince its allies to bar the use of equipment made by telecoms supplier Huawei, President Trump is apparently weighing whether to take another dramatic antagonistic step that could further complicate trade negotiations less than two weeks before a US delegation is slated to head to Beijing.
According to Reuters, the White House is reportedly considering an executive order that would ban US companies from using equipment made by Huawei and ZTE, claiming that both companies work “at the behest of the US government” and that their equipment could be used to spy on US citizens. The order would invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to order the Department of Commerce to prohibit the purchase of equipment from telecoms manufacturers that could threaten national security.
Though it wouldn’t explicitly name Huawei or ZTE, the ban would arise from Commerce’s interpretation. The IEEA allows the president the authority to regulate commerce in the face of a national emergency. Back in August, Congress passed and Trump signed a bill banning the use of ZTE and Huawei equipment by the US government and government contractors. The executive order has reportedly been under consideration for eight months, since around the time that the US nearly blocked US companies from selling parts to ZTE, which sparked a mini-diplomatic crisis, which ended with a deal allowing ZTE to survive, but pay a large fine.
The feud between the US and Huawei has obviously been escalating in recent months as the US has embarked on an “extraordinary influence campaign” to convince its allies to ban equipment made by both companies, and the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou in Canada has also blossomed into a diplomatic crisis of sorts.
But the real reason issuing a ban on both companies’ equipment is seen as a priority is because Huawei’s lead in the race to build 5G technology is making its products more appealing to global telecoms providers. Rural telecoms providers in the US – those with fewer than 100,000 subscribers – are particularly reliant on equipment made by both companies. They’ve expressed concerns that a ban would require them to rip out and scrap their equipment at an immense cost.
Rural operators in the United States are among the biggest customers of Huawei and ZTE, and fear the executive order would also require them to rip out existing Chinese-made equipment without compensation. Industry officials are divided on whether the administration could legally compel operators to do that.
While the big U.S. wireless companies have cut ties with Huawei in particular, small rural carriers have relied on Huawei and ZTE switches and other equipment because they tend to be less expensive.
The company is so central to small carriers that William Levy, vice president for sales of Huawei Tech USA, is on the board of directors of the Rural Wireless Association.
The RWA represents carriers with fewer than 100,000 subscribers. It estimates that 25 percent of its members had Huawei or ZTE equipment in their networks, it said in a filing to the Federal Communications Commission earlier this month.
As Sputnik pointed out, the news of the possible ban followed questions from Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson, who expressed serious concerns over the involvement of Huawei in Britain’s 5G network, suggesting that Beijing sometimes acted “in a malign way.” But even if it loses access to the US market, Huawei’s global expansion and its leadership in the 5G space are expected to continue to bolster profits and growth. Currently, Huawei sells equipment in 170 countries.
According to a statement from the company’s rotating chairman, the company’s full-year sales are expected to increase 21% to $108.5 billion this year. The company has signed 26 contracts globally to supply 5G equipment for commercial use, leaving it well ahead of its US rivals.
China Charges Canadian Citizen With Smuggling ‘An Enormous Amount Of Drugs’
The feud between Ottawa and Beijing climbed to absurd new heights late Wednesday after Beijing announced that it would bring drug smuggling charges against a Canadian national recently detained in the northeastern province of Liaoning. Reuters reported Wednesday that a Chinese court in Dalian has formally charged Canadian Robert Lloyd Schellenberg with smuggling “an enormous amount of drugs” into China– a crime that typically carries the death penalty in the notoriously strict Communist judicial system.
Schellenberg will face an appeal hearing on Saturday, according to a local government news site. The English-language Chinese website Global Times reported that the amount of drugs purportedly smuggled by Schellenberg “will surprise you when it goes public.”
The GT listed the penalties for drug smuggling under Chinese law as follows:
According to China’s Criminal Law, persons who smuggle, traffic in, transport or manufacture opium of not less than 1,000 grams, heroin or methylaniline of not less than 50 grams or other narcotic drugs of large quantities shall be sentenced to fixed-term imprisonment of 15 years, life imprisonment or death and also to confiscation of property.
Following the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou – the daughter of one of China’s most celebrated titans of industry – at the behest of federal prosecutors in the US, Beijing detained two Canadians – former Canadian diplomat Michael Kovrig and China-based businessman Michael Spavor – whom China has accused of engaging in activities that “endanger China’s security”. Canada has protested their arrest and demanded their release, but Beijing has mostly scoffed at Canada’s objections.
Kovrig is a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group think tank, while Spavor facilitates trips to North Korea (his clients include former NBA star Dennis Rodman). It has been widely speculated that the arrest of the two men was intended as retaliation for Meng, though no direct link has been substantiated. The circumstances surrounding Schellenberg’s arrest are less clear.
In addition, a Canadian woman named Sarah McIver is also being held in China and will likely be deported for working illegally in the country.
Back in 2009, China executed UK national and convicted drug smuggler Akmal Shaikh after he was convicted of smuggling 4,030 grams of heroin into China – over the protests of the British government.
“Inappropriate Language” Used During Top Gun Incident As China Buzzes Canadian Plane
A Chinese military plane buzzed a Canadian surveillance aircraft, flying too close and using “inappropriate language,” according to a Wednesday statement by Canada’s top military commander.
The Canadian CP-140 Aurura, which has since returned home, was monitoring UN sanctions in international airspace off of North Korea in October when the Chinese plane harassed it as part of “a pattern of behavior that’s inappropriate,” revealed Canada’s Chief of the Defense Staff Gen. Jonathan Vance during a year-end interview with CBC News.
“We have been interfered with on our flights in the area and been challenged inappropriately in international airspace,” said Vance. He did not elaborate on the inappropriate language.
Vance referred questions about the specifics to National Defence officials, who were less than forthcoming.
They conceded having “contact with the Chinese Air Force operating” near North Korea and insisted that “at no time were our crews or aircraft put at risk.” –CBC
Part of a pattern
Similar incidents have been reported by Japan, Australia and New Zealand, according to the CBC.
The Canadians have come across the Chinese air force on 18 occasions over 12 missions in October. Of those, four had zero interactions with the Chinese, one had a single interaction, while seven had “multiple interactions,” according to a statement from Canadian National Defense.
Some in the diplomatic community, speaking on background Wednesday, said they see the incidents as China attempting to remind the West that they’re in a region that is very sensitive to them — one where they are the predominant power.
The badgering involving the Canadian patrol aircraft happened before the recent spike in tension over Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei — including the arrest in Vancouver of a top company executive, Meng Wanzhou, 46, and the detention of three Canadian citizens in China.
Canadian warship HMCS Calgary and the supply ship MV Asterix recently returned to Esquimalt, B.C. from sanction enforcement patrols in the North Korea region. –CBC
According to Vance, the Canadian crews “did not face overt interference, but it’s made very clear to anybody that’s in that region that you’re in China.” The recent sanctions-related provocations undermines the freedom of navigation from both the sea and the air, he added.
Vance also spoke of a “persistent cyber threat that we are relatively well-poised to counter,” which the Canadian military and allies have faced.
Arctic ambitions?
Vance also noted that Beijing’s provocations with Canada have important impilications when it comes to China’s interest in the Arctic. Earlier this year, China declared itself a “near-Arctic state,” and vowed to build a “Polar Silk Road” along Canada’s northern border.
“China attaches great importance to navigation security in the Arctic shipping routes,” according to Beijing’s Arctic Strategy – published by Chinese state media in January.
Beijing’s overall policy, officially known as the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’, involves plans to open up new trade corridors through the construction of new ports, roads, rail links and trade agreements around the globe.
China has spent tens of billions of dollars on oil and gas projects in Siberia and in waters off Russia. State-owned mining companies have also bought into rich mineral deposits in Greenland. –CBC
That said, China “is not a direct threat to Arctic-state interests and that mutually productive activity is possible,” according to a new policy paper by Adam Lajeunesse – a fellow at the Canadian Institute for Global Affairs. Lajeunesse says that the threat from Beijing is being blown out of proportion, and that “the values espoused in the Chinese document — environmental preservation, co-operation, consultation, support for Indigenous communities and science-based policy-making — strike many of the same chords as Canadian policy under the Liberal Party.”
Vance echoed that sentiment – saying that he does not see a threat of military confrontation in the Arctic. He still worries about China’s intimidation tactics, however, and its willingness to flaunt international rules – as evidenced by the construction of artificial islands in disputed regions of the South China Sea.
“China is a valued trading partner. China is a valued member of the international community,” said Vance, adding “China has enormous influence and stakeholdership in that part of the world. We respect that. We all do, but there is another side of the coin. At the same time, we face challenges.”
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
EUROPE/ECB
The real failure of QE was providing far too much liquidity and this will leave the ECB with a mess on its hands
(courtesy Daniel Lacalle/Mises
The ECB’s Quantitative Easing Was a Failure, Here Is What It Actually Did
Submitted by Daniel Lacalle, via Mises.org
The main reason why the ECB quantitative easing program has failed is that it started from a wrong diagnosis of the eurozone’s problem. That the European problem was a demand and liquidity issue, not due to years of excess.
The ECB had been receiving tremendous pressure from banks and governments to implement a similar program to the US’ quantitative easing, forgetting that the eurozone had been under a chain of government stimuli since 2009 and that the problem of the euro-zone was not liquidity, but an interventionist model.
The day that the ECB launched its quantitative easing program, excess liquidity stood at 125 billion euro. Since then it has ballooned to 1.8 trillion euro.
“Only” after 2.6 trillion euro purchase program and ultra-low rates.
Eurozone PMIs are atrocious. The euro-zone index falls from 52.7 in November to 51.3 in December, well below the consensus forecast of 52.8. More importantly, France’s PMI plummeted from 54.2 in November to a 34-month low of 49.3.
Unemployment in the euro-zone, at 8%, is double that of the US and comparable economies. Youth unemployment rate remains at 15%.
Economic surprise has plummeted as the ECB balance sheet reached 41% of GDP (vs 21% of the Fed).
More than 900 billion euro of non-performing loans remain in the banking system, which keeps a trillion euro timebomb in its balance sheets (read). A figure that represents 5.1% of total loans compared to 1.5% in the US or Japan.
Deficit spending is rising. Government debt to GDP has risen to 86.8%.
The number of zombie companies -those that cannot pay interest expenses with operating profits- has soared to more than 9% of all large quoted firms, according to the BIS.
Sovereign states have saved around one trillion euro in interest expenses, but have spent all those savings. Today, almost no eurozone country can absorb a modest rise in interest rates, and Italy, Spain, France, Portugal, Slovenia, and others are demanding more spending and more deficits.
There is no real secondary market demand for eurozone sovereign bonds at these yields. At the peak of its quantitative easing program, the Federal Reserve was never the sole buyer of Treasuries. There was always a relative secondary market. In the Eurozone, the ECB has been 7 seven times the net issuances of sovereigns. No investor is likely to buy eurozone sovereign bonds at these yields once the ECB steps down.
Eurozone growth and inflation estimates have been revised down again in December. Industrial production has fallen sharply.
Trichet, the ECB’s predecessor to Mario Draghi, had lowered interest rates from 5% to 1%, injected billions into the economy, buying sovereign bonds in 2011.
What has the ECB been successful at?
- Keeping the euro alive. Not a small success, by the way. The risk of break-up has been contained but not eliminated.
- Maintaining government spending at low rates. However, at the expense of savers and salaries.
- Generating a sense of euphoria in financial markets, with high yield and sovereign bonds soaring.
- Wages in the euro-zone have increased below inflation since QE launched and into the third quarter of 2018. In fact, low inflation has been the biggest unintended success of the ECB. It could have been worse.
- The biggest “success” of the ECB has been the massive bailout of governments at the expense of savers.
We also have to agree that Mario Draghi has been reminding governments that they needed to implement structural reforms, use the period of low rates to deleverage and repeating constantly that monetary policy will not work without reforms. No one listened. It was party time, and cheap money attracts bad decisions.
A Never-Ending Government Stimulus
With public spending averaging over 46% of GDP, an annual deficit of over 1.7% on average, and 86% debt, talking about austerity is like eating a box of cakes and calling it “diet”.
The tax burden in this period has been raised throughout the EU (with honorable exceptions, such as Ireland) with an average tax wedge of 45% for workers and 40% on companies.
The United States, at the peak of the crisis, spent 43% of GDP (the EU, 50%) and dropped it to 34%, and that with 21% of the budget in 2009 dedicated to defense.
The EU has been a Keynesian stimulus machine before, through and after the crisis.
1) A massive stimulus in 2008 in a “growth and employment plan”. A stimulus of 1.5% of GDP to create “millions of jobs in infrastructure, civil works, interconnections and strategic sectors”. 4.5 million jobs were destroyed and the deficit nearly doubled.
Between 2001 and 2008, money supply in the euro-zone doubled.
2) Two massive sovereign bond repurchase programs with Trichet as ECB President, interest rates down from 4.25% to 1% since 2008. Poor Trichet. Trichet purchased more than 115 billion euros in sovereign bonds.
3) An additional mega stimulus from the ECB, in addition to the TLTRO liquidity programs with Draghi, which has taken sovereign bonds to the lowest yields in history and purchased almost 20% of the total debt of some major states.
The problem of the European Union has never been a lack of stimuli, but an excess of them.
As government expenditure and unproductive investments multiplied, overcapacity remains at levels of 20% and the constant errors of interventionism leave the euro-zone after the biggest monetary experiment in its history with the same high tax wedge and obstacles to the productive sectors.
The end of the ECB QE leaves the euro-zone in a weaker position than it was in 2011. Because fiscal space has been exhausted and the ECB, with its balance sheet at 41% of the euro-zone GDP and ultra-low interest rates, has also exhausted its monetary tools.
The end of QE does not just show the failure of the ECB’s policy. It highlights the failure of governments’ economic policies.
Governments should implement growth-oriented reforms lowering taxes and attracting capital. Many will not. Most will likely decide, again, that they need to spend more. Fail, repeat.
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TURKEY/USA SYRIA
Erdogan invites Trump who has yet to agree to the meeting. Turkey has two deals it must consider: USA defense missile systems and Russian systems. Where will they face?
(courtesy zerohedge)
Erdogan Invites Trump For Visit As Ankara Mulls Double-Deal For US, Russian Missile Systems
President Trump has been invited by to visit Turkey in 2019 by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the White House said on Monday night. While Trump has not accepted the offer, he “is open to a potential meeting in the future,” according to White House spokesman Hogan Gidley.
As Bloomberg notes, the invitation was extended less than a week after President Trump announced a massive withdrawal of US troops from Syria – where they have supported Kurdish forces considered enemies of the Turkish state. Erdogan considers the US allies an extension of the PKK – deemed a terrorist group by both the EU and US.
During a lengthy phone call on Dec. 14, Trump shocked even those in his inner circle by yielding to a suggestion from Erdogan to pull U.S. forces from the country, where eight years of civil war has forced millions of citizens to flee and established Iran and Russia as protectors of the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The president later declared that the U.S. had won the battle against Islamic State, saying that was “my only reason for being there.” –Bloomberg
Secretary of Defense James Mattis resigned abruptly following Trump’s decision, followed by leading US diplomat Brett McGurk – a move which Trump couldn’t resist knocking over Twitter.
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump
Brett McGurk, who I do not know, was appointed by President Obama in 2015. Was supposed to leave in February but he just resigned prior to leaving. Grandstander? The Fake News is making such a big deal about this nothing event!
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump
For all of the sympathizers out there of Brett McGurk remember, he was the Obama appointee who was responsible for loading up airplanes with 1.8 Billion Dollars in CASH & sending it to Iran as part of the horrific Iran Nuclear Deal (now terminated) approved by Little Bob Corker.
Despite the strengthening of relations between Washington and Ankara, Turkey will not alter its plans to buy the Russian S-400 missile defense system regardless of its decision on whether or not to buy US-made Patriot missiles, according to the Turkish presidential spokesman on Monday, according to France24.
Russian-made S-400 missile system”
The US Patriot sale process does not affect the S-400 process. We don’t see one as an alternative for the other,” said Ibrahim Kalin.
US made-Patriot missile system
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will convene his top defense body on Thursday to discuss a December 19 proposal to sell a package including 80 Patriot missiles and 60 PAC-3 missile interceptors to Turkey, a senior Turkish official told Bloomberg.
Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400s has drawn criticism from NATO allies – with the United States warning that the purchase jeopardized Turkey’s participation in the F-35 fighter jet program.
Turkish officials have previously said it “needs” the S-400 missile defence system and repeatedly stressed that Ankara would buy systems from allies if they had sold them.
Turkish media has reported that the first delivery from Russia will be in 2019. –France24
Turkey’s S-400 order has been cited as a key symbol of Turkey’s closer relationship between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the two men have also been working in concert to find a political solution to the almost seven-year war in Syria despite being on opposite sides of the conflict.
While Turkey has supported Syrian rebels and called for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, Russia’s 2015 intervention helped the Damascus regime recapture large portions of the country taken over by Islamic militants.
Russia Slams Israel For “Gross Violation Of Sovereignty” During Latest Syria Air Strike
Following reports that Israel is plotting a full-scale offensive in Syria (after years of carrying out airstrikes on Iranian or Iranian-affiliated targets south of Damascus), Russia on Wednesday accused the Jewish state of endangering the lives of civilians during a Christmas Day bombing raid carried out by Israeli F-16s flying out of Lebanon.
According to Al Jazeera, Russia accused the Israelis of violating SYRIAN sovereignty and threatening two civilian flights landing at a nearby airport in Damascus during attacks on targets allegedly affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in the Damascus countryside.
“We are very concerned by the attacks and how they were made. This is a gross violation of the sovereignty of Syria,” the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Wednesday.
“The provocative actions of the Israeli air force…directly threatened two airliners,” Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said in a statement.
Syrian state media claimed it intercepted most of the Israeli missiles. Israeli, for what it’s worth, has denied that it planned an attack, saying that its fighter jets were merely protecting themselves from anti-aircraft gun fire.
“An [Israeli military] aerial defence system activated in response to an anti-aircraft missile launched from Syria,” the Israeli army said in a statement via Twitter.
A spokesman for the Russian military said the attack was launched from Lebanese territory as “two airliners, not from Russia, were preparing to land at the airports of Beirut and Damascus.” And “to prevent a tragedy” one of the commercial planes was redirected to a Russian airbase.
Meanwhile, three Syrian soldiers were injured in the attack. As the US begins to withdraw its troops, expect Israeli attacks to intensify as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned as Israel tries to stop Iran from expanding its influence from within Syria.
END
SYRIA/UAE/SAUDI ARABIA/ARAB LEAGUE
after 8 years, the UAE is now set to open an embassy in Damascus and thus open diplomatic relations. With that the gulf nations are now reportedly leading efforts to readmit Syria into the Arab League. Thus Sunnis’ and Shites will be in the same room and not pledging to fight each other. The only enemy are the extremists. Trump is asking the Saudi’s to help pay for the reconstruction of Syria and their pockets are deeper than Iran and Russia
(courtesy zerohedge)
Arab League Set To Readmit Syria After Eight Years As UAE Embassy Reopens In Damascus
Assad’s “normalization” with both Arab and increasingly international countries who were a short time ago enemies is moving fast. First the embassy of the United Arab Emirates has formally reopened Thursday in Damascus, which is the first time a Gulf country has re-established official relations with the Assad government since all GCC states first shuttered their embassies there in 2012. Related to this and more significant, Gulf nations are now reportedly leading efforts to readmit Syria into the Arab League after the organization expelled Damascus eight years ago when the conflict first began.
At the time the Arab League cited “brutal repression” of protests against President Bashar al-Assad — deeply ironic and hypocritical at the time — given that Damascus pointed out both Bahrain and ally Saudi Arabia violently snuffed out proteststhat rocked Bahrain’s monarchy in 2011 as part of the “Arab Spring” movement. But the significance of likely rapprochement with Arab states is huge, coming after eight years of war driven by an official policy of Syrian regime change by these very GCC governments, foremost among them Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Restoration of ties also means countries like the UAE could be major sources of financing reconstruction projects at a key moment when the United States has long blocked all western aid that could benefit the Syrian government.
During the final weeks of the UAE embassy’s rapid remodel in preparations for Thursday’s reopening, another first happened: Sudan’s President Omar Bashir became first Arab League leader to meet Bashar al-Assad since the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011. Bashir flew to Damascus on Dec. 16 to discuss with the Syrian president “situations and crises faced by many Arab countries,” according to an official press release. No doubt they also discussed Syria’s impending re-entry into the Arab League.
Notably, The Guardian paints the most optimistic picture in terms of Damascus’ full diplomatic rehabilitation in the region after years of Arab heads of state and international leaders echoing “Assad must go”:
At some point in the next year it is likely Assad will be welcomed on to a stage to once again take his place among the Arab world’s leaders, sources say. Shoulder to shoulder with the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and Egypt’s latest autocrat, General Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, the moment will mark the definitive death of the Arab spring, the hopes of the region’s popular revolutions crushed by the newest generation of Middle Eastern strongmen.
Such a speedy turn around signals Arab leaders are ready to acknowledge Assad as the legitimate leader of Syria after emerging victorious as the international proxy war continues to wind down, but also at a tense and sensitive moment asboth Israel has vowed to expand its “anti-Iran” military action in Syria and as the United States is current withdrawing troops from Syria’s northeast.
Prominent Syria analyst Joshua Landis noted last month there’s currently a monumental realignment underway as regional powers hasten to restore ties with Damascus:
Bahrain, Kuwait, Egypt and Jordan are reopening relations with the Syrian government. This suggests that they are not fighting “Sunnis,” but extremists that they seem to consider common enemies. No longer Sunni vs Shia – but Conservative vs Radical. Or Governments vs insurgents.
Meanwhile both Syrian and international estimates attempting to evaluate to reconstruction costs for the war-ravaged country commonly put the figure at $400bn.
According to The Guardian:
The full sum will probably never materialize and much of Syria is likely to remain in ruins – but Riyadh’s pockets are much deeper than Tehran and Moscow’s. Any forthcoming Gulf reconstruction money will be directed to areas that stayed loyal to the government throughout the war as a reward.
This also touches on President Trump’s Monday tweet, wherein he announced that Saudi Arabia “has now agreed to spend the necessary money” for Syria’s reconstruction, which also raised the question for potential full Syrian-Saudi rapprochement.
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump
The United States has ended the ridiculous 230 Million Dollar yearly development payment to Syria. Saudi Arabia and other rich countries in the Middle East will start making payments instead of the U.S. I want to develop the U.S., our military and countries that help us!
It turns out the president was likely referencing prior commitments, and not newly pledged funds, while under fire from Congressional leaders for announcing a full US draw down from Syria.
According to CNBC, the Saudis have denied the content of the tweet, or that it presents new information:
An official at the Saudi embassy in Washington told CNBC that the kingdom has not made any major new financial pledge to Syria since August. That is when the State Department announced that Saudi Arabia had committed $100 million to a fund to stabilize areas of Syria liberated from ISIS militants by a U.S.-led coalition.
Of course this is a paltry sum out of the $400bn needed, but likely there will be more to come, especially as Russia and Saudi Arabia are bettering relations after Saudi crown prince MbS has essentially been declared persona non grata by the United States and international leaders.
Already we’re set for an interesting start to 2019 considering that in international relations terms, Assad could be on his way “in” at a moment that MbS is on his way out.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
MALAYSIA/GOLDMAN SACHS
7 OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS
Venezuela
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00
Euro/USA 1.1397 UP .0037 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED
USA/JAPAN YEN 110.76 DOWN 0.472 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL
GBP/USA 1.2649 DOWN 0.0002 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED
USA/CAN 1.3609 UP .0034 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 37 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1397/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 15.21 POINTS OR 0.61%
//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 172.50 POINTS OR .67%
/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.84% /EUROPEAN BOURSES RED
The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 750.56 POINTS OR 3.86%
Trading from Europe and Asia
1/EUROPE OPENED RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 172.50 POINTS OR .67%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.21 POINTS OR 0.61%
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.84%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 750.56 POINTS OR 3.84%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1272.20
silver:$15.09
Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.77% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
The 30 yr bond yield 3.03 DOWN 3 IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.77 DOWN 28 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING
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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.68% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.03% UP 1 BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.39% DOWN 1 IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.75 DOWN 8 POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 136 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.23% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.52% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1411 UP .0052 or 52 basis points
USA/Japan: 110.77 DOWN 0.451 OR 45 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2635 DOWN .0013( POUND DOWN 13 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar DOWN 74 basis points to 1.3647
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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.8663- ON SHORE (YUAN UP)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.8833( YUAN UP)
TURKISH LIRA: 5.2838
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.03%
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 0 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.76 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.02 DOWN 0 in basis points on the day /
THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS
Your closing USA dollar index, 96.73 DOWN 33 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 4:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 100.08 OR 1.5%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 252,31 POINTS OR 2.37%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 27,78 POINTS OR .60%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 116.70 POINTS OR 1.38%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 332.57 POINTS OR 1.81%
WTI Oil price; 44.94 1:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 52.89 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / ROUBLE CROSS: 69.58 THE CROSS HIGHER BY .84 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 84 BASIS PTS)
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 5.2838 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.23 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :46.48
BRENT :54.93
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.80%…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.06%/.
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1352 ( down 63 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.36 UP 0.922 (YEN down 92 BASIS POINTS/
.
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.08 up 50 cent(s)/
The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2633 down 49 POINTS FROM MONDAY
the Turkish lira close: 5.2835
the Russian rouble: 68.74 down .04 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 4 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3588 UP 2 BASIS pts
USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8854 (ONSHORE)
USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8959 (OFFSHORE)
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.25%
The Dow closed UP 260.37 POINTS OR 1.14%
NASDAQ closed UP 25.14 POINTS OR 0.38%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 30.36 CLOSED DOWN 0.05
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.814% .LIBOR RATES ARE RISING/
FROM 2.813
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY
Another Massive Buy Program Sends Dow Soaring Over 900 Points
(4th Biggest Buy Program Of All Time Sends Dow Soaring Over 900 Points)
Dow futures plunged over 760 points after tagging yesterday’s highs overnight, but those darn algos ripped the market higher in the last hour erasing the entire drop… with the biggest buy program since February…
In words…
r…
A
And pictures… Dow futs exploded over 900 points higher, taking out yesterday’s highs and ending like yesterday at the highs of the day…
On the day, Small Caps ended red but The Dow led the rest green…
Quite a wild ride this week so far…
The plunge was not a total surprise after economic confidence crumbled and job expectations crashed, but the buying panic had the same short squeeze and pension panic reallocation fingerprints from yesterday.
However, gold and bonds remain green since the Fed hike and stocks still down over 4%…
It certainly has the smell of a massive pension reallocation as the moment stocks started to surge, bonds were dumped...
Especially the long-end as pensions unwound as much duration as quickly as possible to cover the increased equity exposure…
While the USD and stocks were correlated today, the former plunged and was unable to rip back with the magnitude of stocks…
Dollar weakness helped lift Silver again as crude slipped…
Silver has dramatically outperformed gold in the last few days…
But finally, no matter how much lipstick they put on December, it is still a pig…
market trading
market data/
USA jobs outlook (USA confidence) crashes the most on record
(courtesy zerohedge)
US Jobs Outlook Crashes Most On Record
With consumer confidence in November printing near the highest levels since the dot com bubble, it was almost inevitable that in light of the recent economic and market turmoil, the December print would disappoint, and sure enough it did just that, when the Conference Board reported the December print dropped from 136.4 to 128.1, missing expectations of 133.7 and the lowest level since July.
While Americans’ assessment of the Present Situation was almost unchanged, at 171.6 vs 172.7 in November, it was their outlook that took a hit, as the Expectations Index tumbled from 112.3 to a two year low of 99.1, a 13.2 drop which was the biggest since August 2011 when the US credit rating was downgraded by the S&P and the S&P nearly fell in a bear market, dropping 19% before rebounding.
One possible reason for the collapse is Americans’ take on the job market which appears to have reversed abruptly, with those expecting more jobs in the months ahead falling to 16.6% from 22.7%, with the 6.1% pt drop is the biggest in over 41 years.
This sharp drop in confidence about the labor market also resulted in a plunge in plans to purchase major appliances, which hit a level not seen since February 2016, hit during the E&P crisis when many note the US was hammered by a manufacturing recession.
Commenting on the unexpectedly poor number, Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. said “consumer Confidence decreased in December, following a moderate decline in November.”
“Expectations regarding job prospects and business conditions weakened, but still suggest that the economy will continue expanding at a solid pace in the short-term. While consumers are ending 2018 on a strong note, back-to-back declines in Expectations are reflective of an increasing concern that the pace of economic growth will begin moderating in the first half of 2019.”
While looking ahead US consumer turned sharply more bearish, they are still optimistic on their current conditions even as the percentage of consumers saying business conditions are “good” decreased from 42.0 percent to 37.2 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased from 10.7 percent to 11.3 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was mixed. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” decreased marginally from 46.8 percent to 46.2 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined from 12.6 percent to 11.6 percent.
Looking ahead, however, the skepticism was more pronounced:
Consumers’ optimism about the short-term future fell in December. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months decreased from 21.9 percent to 18.3 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased, from 8.3 percent to 9.7 percent.
Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also less favorable. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 22.7 percent to 16.6 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased, from 11.2 percent to 14.4 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement declined from 23.2 percent to 22.4 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease rose, from 7.2 percent to 7.7 percent.
Of note, the richest Americans, those whose incomes are higher than $50,000 saw their confidence tumble from an 18 year high in October to the lowest level since Sept. 2017 in December.
One possible reason: the number of Americans expecting stocks to drop has surged in the past two months to the highest level since April 2018.
USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST
The Dow rose by 1089 points yesterday. The reason for this is explained in the following commentary.
(courtesy zerohedge)
SWAMP STORIES
Guiliani: Mueller must be investigated for destruction of FBI evidence after he wiped clean both Page’s and Strzok’s phone text messages
(courtesy zerohedge)
Mueller Must Be Investigated For Destruction Of FBI Evidence: Giuliani
Special counsel Robert Mueller needs to be investigated for destruction of FBI evidence, President Trump’s attorney Rudy Giuliani said in an interview with Hill.TV’s John Solomon and Buck Sexton.
Referencing recent reports that Mueller’s office allowed text messages from former FBI employees Peter Strzok and Lisa Page to be destroyed, Giuliani levied harsh accusations at the special counsel.
“Mueller should be investigated for destruction of evidence for allowing those text messages from Strzok to be erased, messages that would show the state of mind and tactics of his lead anti-Trump FBI agent at the start of his probe,” said Giuliani.
The Inspector General of the DOJ revealed in a report this month that it found large gaps in text message records between Strzok and Page, the top FBI agents in charge of investigating both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump during the 2016 US election. Of note, the two agents harbored extreme animus against then-candidate Trump, while supporting Hillary Clinton – bias which the DOJ claims never made its way into their work.
After Strzok was kicked off the special counsel investigation following the discovery of anti-Trump text messages between he and Page, his Mueller’s Records Officer scrubbed Strzok’s iPhone after determining “it contained no substantive text messages,” reported the Conservative Review‘s Jordan Schachtel in mid-December.
Jordan Schachtel
✔@JordanSchachtel
So Mueller’s team wiped ALL of the data off of Peter Strzok’s iPhone after determining “it contained no substantive text messages.” Given what we know about Strzok, this smells like quite the coverup. Time for Congress to step in?https://oig.justice.gov/reports/2018/i-2018-003523.pdf …
Jordan Schachtel
✔@JordanSchachtel
I’m sure you’re all super shocked to find out that Lisa Page’s phone was also scrubbed pic.twitter.com/NWV9GQbBTc
Razor@hale_razor* Strzok texts he’ll “stop Trump”
* Strzok texts that NYT is upset about WaPo scoop.
* Strzok texts Page re “insurance policy”
* Mueller then smashes their phones with a virtual hammer.Go on how you’re concerned about corruption, obstruction of justice, and collusion.
Julie Kelly@julie_kelly2Short version: Mueller’s Office scrubbed clean both Strzok and Page’s phones. Reset to factory settings. SCO also didn’t know who handled Page’s device after she left in July 2017. SCO records officer said she doesn’t recall whether there were ANY texts on Strzok’s phone… https://twitter.com/JusticeOIG/status/1073233572205682688 …
When pressed about whether he thought the erasure was intentional and not just a mistake, Giuliani alluded to the infamous erasure of a Watergate tape by President Richard Nixon’s loyal secretary a half-century earlier.
“It’s actually worse than Rose Mary Woods,” he explained. “She erased less than 19 minutes of conversation, but the FBI got rid of more than 19,000 messages” and the messages from the time Strzok and Page worked for Mueller are lost forever.
Giuliani said the Russia probe investigators also should be investigated for using the Christopher Steele dossier, which he called a “piece of garbage,” to justify a search warrant on a Trump adviser without telling the court it was paid for by Hillary Clinton’s campaign and the Democratic Party.
“Do I think that is improper? Yeah, that borders on, that sounds to me a lot more like a false statement than some of the ones they charged,” he said, referring to Mueller’s team. –The Hill
Giuliani knocked Mueller’s team for what he claims are “false statements” by former Trump attorney Michael Cohen during Cohen’s sentencing several weeks ago on charges mostly unrelated to the Trump campaign.
“He just lied the other day. He told the judge, ‘I was fiercely loyal to Donald Trump.’ No, he wasn’t. He taped him surreptitiously while he was fiercely loyal. He hid it. And he disclosed it,” said Giuliani, adding that the Mueller team’s failure to stand up during sentencing and correct Cohen’s lie “is unethical in and of itself. “Making a false statement to a court, even a lawyer, you’ve to correct it.”
Giuliani added that the Mueller probe has traveled well beyond its original mandate:
He said Mueller’s current focus on whether Trump friends such as Roger Stone were communicating with WikiLeaks outside the campaign about hacked Hillary Clinton emails shows just how far astray the probe had gone.
“We’re now four degrees of separation from the original mandate of the investigation, which was collusion which did not occur,” he noted.
When asked whether Mueller should be the last special prosecutor ever appointed by the Justice Department, Giuliani hedged: “I never like to say never but I must say I have great pause after seeing the abuses in this investigation.”
The FBI, he added, still needs to rehabilitate itself from the damage done by missteps in the Russia probe. Giuliani said he believed that “99 percent of the FBI agents” were doing a great job but that a small group of “FBI politicians” had improperly hijacked the Russia probe during fired director James Comey’s tenure. –The Hill
The former New York City mayor added that he doesn’t know if FBI director Christopher Wray will help right the wrongs from the Russia probe.
“I’m uncertain because I haven’t heard anything from him … . The first way you fix problems is by acknowledging them.”
Shutdown Drags On As House GOP Leaders Say No Vote This Week
The partial government shutdown continues with no end in sight, as House GOP leaders said on Thursday that they do not expect a vote this week on a financial package that might reopen the government, according to The Hill.
House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA), who supports President Trump’s firm stance on $5 billion for his long-promised southern border wall, advised members “that no votes are expected in the House this week.”
“As the House awaits Senate action on remaining FY19 appropriations, we will aim to provide 24 hours’ notice ahead of any expected votes in the House,” added Scalise’s office in a notice.
The Senate was scheduled to convene at 4 p.m. on Thursday, but no votes were expected until President Trump and congressional Democrats reach a deal to end a funding lapse that is affecting about 25 percent of the federal government.
Little progress has been made in negotiations as Democratic lawmakers and the White House remain at odds over funding for Trump’s proposed border wall.
“No end in sight to the President’s government shutdown,” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) tweeted on Thursday. “He’s taken our government hostage over his outrageous demand for a $5 billion border wall that would be both wasteful and ineffective.” –The Hill
Trump resumed his recent attacks on Democrats over the wall funding, Tweeting on Thursday “Have the Democrats finally realized that we desperately need Border Security and a Wall on the Southern Border. Need to stop Drugs, Human Trafficking, Gang Members & Criminals from coming into our Country,” adding “Do the Dems realize that most of the people not getting paid are Democrats?”
Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrump
Have the Democrats finally realized that we desperately need Border Security and a Wall on the Southern Border. Need to stop Drugs, Human Trafficking,Gang Members & Criminals from coming into our Country. Do the Dems realize that most of the people not getting paid are Democrats?
Last week the House passed a bill with $5.7 billion in border funding, however it was considered DOA in the Senate – which passed a measure earlier in the week to keep border security funding at current levels, with no additional money for Trump’s wall.
harveyorganblog.com 