Jan 8/TODAY’S ALGO MACHINES DR0VE DOW UP 258 POINTS/NASDAQ UP 74 POINTS/GOLD DOWN $3.70 TO $1285.00/SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO $15.66/GERMANY HAS POOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NUMBERS FOR LAST MONTH/THERESA MAY LOSES A BIG VOTE WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW HER TO HAVE A “NO DEAL” BREXIT/MORE SWAMP STORIES/TRUMP TO TALK ABOUT THE WALL TONIGHT AT 9 PM/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1285.00 DOWN $3.70 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $15.66 DOWN 4 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1285.300

 

silver: $15.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

JANUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 300 NOTICE(S) FOR 30000 OZ (0..9331 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  398 NOTICES FOR 9800 OZ  (1.2379 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JANUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

12 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  60,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 298 for 1,490,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $3992:  UP 18

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3973  UP 1 

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 76/300

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,286.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/07/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 01/09/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
323 C HSBC 300
624 C MERRILL 61
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 29
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 68
661 C JP MORGAN 76
685 C RJ OBRIEN 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 30
800 C RCG 21
905 C ADM 12
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 300 300
MONTH TO DATE: 398

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN CONSIDERABLE SIZED  2506 CONTRACTS FROM 179,156 UP TO 181,662 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S  1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

979 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 979 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 979 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 979 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.89 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

 21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

AND NOW: INITIALLY 5.055 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY: 14,789 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 14,789 CONTRACTS) OR 73.990 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2959 CONTRACTS OR 14.789 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  73.990 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 10.55% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           73.990    MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2506 DESPITE THE 1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 979 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED: 3485 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 979 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2506 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.70 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .896 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 128% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 12 NOTICE(S) FOR 60,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ  AND NOW JANUARY AT  5.055 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG 7879 CONTRACTS UP TO 464,243 WITH THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $4.35//YESTERDAY’S TRADING)

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD  SIZED 5,365 CONTRACTS:

 

FEBRUARY HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5365 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 464,243. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN HUGE SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,244 CONTRACTS: 7879 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5365 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 13,244 CONTRACTS OR 1,324,400 OZ = 41.19 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS VERY HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GOOD GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF  $4.35

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 14,688 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY : 45,379 CONTRACTS OR 4,537,900 OZ  OR 141.414TONNES (5 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9075 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 141.41 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 141.41/2550 x 100% TONNES = 5.54% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     141.41  TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 7979 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($4.35) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5,365 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5,365 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 13,244 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5365 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 7979 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 41.19 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS HUGE  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $4.35 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had: 300 notice(s) filed upon for 30,000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY 

 

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47  PAPER TONNES

AND THIS WAS USED IN THE ATTACK ON GOLD TODAY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   796.78 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 796/78 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS  TODAY:

 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2506 CONTRACTS from 179,156 UP TO 181,662  AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

979 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5044 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2506 CONTRACTS TO THE 979 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN  OF 3485  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 17.425 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER AND 5.055 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 1 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZE 979 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.63 PTS OR 0.26% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 38.75 POINTS OR 0.15% /The Nikkei closed UP 165.97 POINTS OR 0.82% / Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.68%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8537 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 49.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.06 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8537 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8584: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/CHINA

Xi invites Kim to China for talks and that will send a strong message to Trump.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan/USA/China

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

 

i)CHINA/North Korea/USA

the message is clear:  If Trump wants peace in the peninsula, then China must be involved.  If Trump wants a good trade deal with China then China must also benefit from it and markers will be called in with respect to North Korea.

( zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)FRANCE

How the “Muslimization” of France led to the yellow vest movement and the loss in popularity of Macron.  France is in free fall.

a must read…

( Gatestone Institute/Milliere)

iiGermany

This is not good for Europe.  Germany is the engine for growth and it has the advantage of a low Euro to help them.  If Germany would vacate the EMU, it would be using its German Mark and it would be trading much higher on an equivalent basis vs the euro.  If Germany cannot growth, then the rest of Europe must be in disaster shape

( zerohedge)

iii)Italy/France
Italy’s Salvini offers support to the Yellow Vest movement
( zerohedge)
iv)Bill Blain explains perfectly what is going on in Europe
( Bill Blain)

v)BREXIT/UK

Another dramatic defeat for Theresa May as MP’s back a measure to block any “no deal” on Brexit
(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Turkey/Syria

Erdogan promises Trump that he will not slaughter the Syrian Kurds but that pledge looks empty. In order to protect themselves, the Kurds will join with the Syrians to protect themselves against the Turkish onslaught once the uSA leaves

( last night//courtesy zerohedge)

The Turkish lira falls after Erdogan refuses to meet Bolton.  It is obvious that Erdogan’s real plan is to wipe out the Kurds

(courtesy zerohedge/this morning)

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

When the 1MDB loan was going sour, Razak sought the help from China

( zerohedge/Wall Street Journal)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)Venezuela

A supreme court judge flees Venezuela to the USA and pours his heart about on the heart wrenching economy inside his country

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)The big question:  why did China release the official reserves now?

two commentaries

(Reuters and Bloomberg/gata)

ii)So true:  this report talks about the manipulations and interventions fighting bad economic fundamentals

( King Report/MRamsey/gata)

iii) Kranzler correctly details how stocks will fall along with the dollar in 2019 accompanies with a rising price of gold and silver

(Dave Kranzler/IRD/GATA)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

ii)Market data/

Everywhere we look, we witness data that suggests the USA economy and for that matter, the global economy has been halted in its tracks:  today job opening tumbles as does hires.

( zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)The continuing saga of PG and E, These guys want to pass off the cost of the fires onto the citizens of California

( zerohedge)

b)Although the Sears team want to extend this, it sure looks like the morgue for them.  The judge is being asked to liquidate

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)This is getting interesting: The Russian lawyer who attended the Trump Tower meeting has been charged in a money laundering case

( zerohedge)

b)More on the Manafort lies to Mueller:

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN  ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 7879 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 464,243 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.35) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5365 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR FEBRUARY:  5365 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5365 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  13,244 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5365 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 7879 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13,244 contracts OR 1,324,400  OZ OR 41.19 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of JANUARY and here the open interest stands at 350 contracts as we LOST 3 contracts. We had 4 notice filed on yesterday so we gained 1 contract or 100 oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negate a fiat bonus. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS IN EARNEST TO THE COMEX GOLD COMPLEX.

 

 

The next active delivery month is February and here the OI lost by 94 contracts DOWN to 302,017 contracts.  After February, March received another 39 contracts to stand at 472.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI rose by 5890 contracts up to 86,604 contracts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE  January 2018 contract month

 

 

ON JANUARY 1/2018: 1.297 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY  (Jan 1 2019 initial standing 1.306 tonnes)

EVENTUALLY ON JAN 31.2018: 2.17 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX

 

 

WE HAD 300 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 30000 OZ. (0..9331 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 2506 CONTRACTS FROM 179156 UP TO 181,662 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS 725 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST ONLY 95 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 106 NOTICES FILED ON YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR  55,000 ADDITIONAL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR SILVER AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS FEBRUARY AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 55 CONTRACTS UP TO 485. AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 1911 CONTRACTS UP TO 144,827 CONTRACTS.

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 3485 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  2506 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 979 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3485 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH AND JANUARY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE JAN 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD A GOOD 2.695 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY’

AT THE CONCLUSION OF JAN/2018 WE HAD 3.650 MILLION OZ STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NORM FOR SILVER

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 12 notice(s) filed for 60,000 OZ for the FEB, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  255,123 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  222,209  contracts

volumes at the comex for both gold and silver are much less than usual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 8-/2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

NIL

 

OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
300 notice(s)
 30,000 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
50 contracts
(5000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
398 notices
39,800 OZ
1.2379 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  NIL oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  nil oz

 

we had 0  adjustments….

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 300 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 76 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (398) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (350 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (300 x 100 oz per contract) equals 44,800 OZ OR 1.3934 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON  active month of JANUARY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (398 x 100 oz)  + {350)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (300 x 100 oz )which equals 44,800 oz standing OR 1.3934 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JANUARY.

We gained 1 contracts or an additional 100 oz will stand in this non active month of January as queue jumping resumes at the gold comex.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.372 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.3934 TONNES STANDING FOR JANUARY

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  751,413.930 oz or   23.372 tonnes*
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,432,261.563 oz 262.27 tonnes
In December  we had 23.374 tonnes of gold  SERVED UPON against dealer inventory of 23.373 tonnes and  no evidence of settlements.  We generally get a settlement when we see an adjustment from the dealer side to the customer side.. We have now gone through the entire month of December with only one tiny adjustment from a dealer to a customer account.  THERE WERE NO OTHER TRANSFERS TO INDICATE A SETTLEMENT.
Thus by the end of December we had:  23.374 tonnes of gold standing for metal against only 23.186 tonnes of dealer gold and .182 tonnes has been settled…(Dec 17)
We now add 1.3934 tonnes of gold standing in January against this same 23.372 tonnes available for delivery.
If you want to keep score:
December: 23.374 tonnes
January 1.3934 tonnes
total: 24.767 tonnes against inventory of 23.372 tonnes (registered)

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 92 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

JAN INITIAL standings/SILVER

JAN 8, 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,410,292,961oz
CNT
Brinks
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
638,847.500  oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
900,779,249
oz
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
12
CONTRACT(S)
60,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
713 contracts
3,565,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 298 contracts

(1,490,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into Brinks: 638,847.500 oz

total dealer deposits:  638,847.500oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 3 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: 298,324.250 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.265 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (147.5 million/293 million)

 

ii) Into  CNT:  600,448.399  oz

iii) Into Delaware:  1997.600 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 900,770.249  oz

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT: 116,439.231 oz
ii) Out of Brinks: 144,598.300 oz
iii) Out of HSBC: 103,255.430 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,410,292.961   oz

 

we had 0 adjustment

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  83.633 million

total dealer + customer silver:  293.368 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY 2018. contract month is represented by 12 contract(s) FOR 60,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 298 x 5,000 oz = 1,490,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (725) and the number of notices served upon today (12x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY/2018 contract month: 298(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN( 725) -number of notices served upon today (12)x 5000 oz equals 5,055,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month. We gained 11 contracts or an additional 55,000 oz

will  stand for delivery and these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  69.296 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 56.165 CONTRACTS… 

volumes at the comex now increasing for silver

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 56165 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 280 million OZ  40.11 OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.67-% (JAN 8/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.87% to NAV (JAN 8 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.67%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.11/TRADING 12.61/DISCOUNT 3.77

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 STRANGELY A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $8.65: A MASSIVE 15.88 TONNES WAS ADDED INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 790.02 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $0.15: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $15.15: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.15 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.14 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.35/A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JAN 8/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 796.78 tonnes

*IN LAST 530 TRADING DAYS: 138.38 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 430 TRADING DAYS: A NET 21.62 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN ADDITION OF 94,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317,233

DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.408 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/ INV. RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

 

 

JAN 8/2019:

 

Inventory 314.758 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.41/ and libor 6 month duration 2.85

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .44

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.64%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.99

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.35

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold At 6 M

Financial Advice In 2019: Own Gold To Hedge $250 Trillion Global Debt Bubble

– Financial advice needed in 2019? Let six experts guide you

– Save regularly, switch your mortgage, check up on tax reliefs & hedge risks in 2019 by diversifying into gold

– “There are also very real risks posed by the global debt bubble as the world nears $250 trillion in debt and the global debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to nearly 320 per cent” say GoldCore

Excerpt from Irish Times today (subscriber only)

My resolution:
One financial resolution is to read and watch less financial news. I stay up to date with financial markets, including breaking financial news, as I have to write a market update every day and frequently provide comment to media.

However, in the age of Trump and Brexit, it can be hard to keep up with it all.

I am going to unsubscribe from many of the alerts I get and become more selective and focused in my news consumption. This will help filter out much of the daily and weekly market noise and help me get more valuable long-term signal.

We believe that diversification and owning gold as a hedge and safe haven asset will again be important in 2019.

My recommendation:
We live in an increasingly polarised and uncertain world which casts shadows over our economies and the investment outlook.

This is clearly seen with Brexit, the risk of “Italexit”, an increasingly fractured EU and Trump’s aggressive foreign and economic policies, including trade wars.

There are also very real risks posed by the global debt bubble as the world nears $250 trillion in debt and the global debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to nearly 320 per cent.

We believe that diversification and owning gold as a hedge and safe haven asset will again be important in 2019 and in the coming years.

Full article on Irish Times

 

 

News and Commentary

U.S. Stock Futures Climb With Europe; Dollar Gains (Bloomberg.com)

Gold falls on improved risk sentiment, dollar recovery (Reuters.com)

Perth Mint’s Dec gold sales slump 55 pct m/m, silver sales drop (Reuters.com)

Asian shares propped up by hopes for Sino-US trade deal, cautious Fed (Reuters.com)

Fed pause expectations keep lid on dollar (Reuters.com)

SNB’s sticks to expansive monetary policy script of negative rates (Reuters.com)

These Are the 10 Biggest Risks in the World, According to Eurasia Group (Bloomberg.com)

Gold to benefit as Fed confronted with primordial scream of world markets (Telegraph.co.uk)

A Golden (Long-Term) Opportunity (FXStreet.com)

Manipulations and interventions fight bad fundamentals (MRamseyKing.com)

2019: The Year of Living Dangerously (MauldinEconomics.com)

JPMorgan Now Sees 60% Odds Of A Recession (ZeroHedge.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

05 Jan: USD 1,291.50, GBP 1,013.83 & EUR 1,129.03 per ounce
04 Jan: USD 1,290.35, GBP 1,016.80 & EUR 1,131.24 per ounce
03 Jan: USD 1,287.95, GBP 1,024.05 & EUR 1,132.62 per ounce
02 Jan: USD 1,287.20, GBP 1,014.44 & EUR 1,125.27 per ounce
31 Dec: USD 1,281.65, GBP 1,005.45 & EUR 1,120.03 per ounce
28 Dec: USD 1,277.25, GBP 1,009.16 & EUR 1,114.91 per ounce
27 Dec: USD 1,271.10, GBP 1,006.20 & EUR 1,115.26 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

05 Jan: USD 15.75, GBP 12.35 & EUR 13.77 per ounce
04 Jan: USD 15.70, GBP 12.40 & EUR 13.76 per ounce
03 Jan: USD 15.53, GBP 12.37 & EUR 13.70 per ounce
02 Jan: USD 15.44, GBP 12.19 & EUR 13.51 per ounce
31 Dec: USD 15.47, GBP 12.11 & EUR 13.51 per ounce
28 Dec: USD 15.30, GBP 12.05 & EUR 13.34 per ounce
27 Dec: USD 15.06, GBP 11.92 & EUR 13.22 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– China Adds 320,000 Ounces To Gold Reserves – First Central Bank Purchase Since October 2016
– Gold At 6 Month High At $1,300 and All Time Record Highs In Australian Dollars Over $1,870
– Gold Hedges Stock Market Falls In 2018 – Gains 2.7% In Euros and 3.8% In Pounds
– Hope For Best In 2019 But Prepare For Worst by Increased Allocations to Gold and Silver – Outlook 2019 Podcast
– Prepare For Global Debt Bubble Collapse – Outlook 2019
– Happy Christmas From All The Team in GoldCore
– Gold Prices Likely To Go Higher In 2019 After 4% Gain In Q4 2018
– Everything Bubble Started Bursting In 2018 – GoldCore Video
– Global Financial System Is ‘Unstable’ and Risk Of ‘Clearing System Seizure’, BIS Warns
– Gold Flowing From West To East and Now To Goldman Sachs
– Brexit Risk Sees Gold Rise To Test EUR 1,100 Per Ounce

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

* * *

GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER

The big question:  why release the official reserves now?

two commentaries (Reuters and Bloomberg/gata)

China reports first gold reserve increase in more than two years

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

 Section: 

China’s Gold Reserves Rise for 1st Time in Over Two Years in December

From Reuters
Monday, January 7, 2019

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-reserves-gold/chinas-gold-…

BEIJING — China’s gold reserves rose to 59.560 million fine troy ounces at end-December, the first increase since October 2016, central bank data showed today.

The country’s gold reserves had been steady at 59.240 million fine troy ounces from October 2016 to November 2018, according to data from the People’s Bank of China.

END

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

China adds to gold reserves for first time since October 2016

 Section: 

… Or so they say.

* * *

The world’s biggest producer and consumer boosted holdings of bullion in a month marked by mounting concerns that China’s trade dispute with the U.S. is threatening economic growth. Spot gold had its strongest month in almost two years as those fears spurred gyrations in equities and the dollar and boosted demand for the precious metal as a haven.

Speculation that the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hikes has given further strength to gold’s rally into the new year and assets in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds are at a seven-month high. Spot gold was trading 0.5 percent higher at $1,291.83 an ounce.

“It’s a bullish sign for gold,” Matthew Turner, a commodities strategist at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London, said by phone. “The reasons could be diversification, a wish to get away from the dollar, but it’s hard to be certain because we just don’t know enough about what their motivations are.”

The Asian nation has previously spent long periods without revealing increases in gold holdings. When the central bank announced a 57 percent jump in reserves to 53.3 million ounces in July 2015, it was the first update in six years.

“I’m always wary of year-end moves, but if they buy again, then it’ll look like they’re on another run of additions, like they did in 2015-2016.” Turner said.

It’s not just China buying. Poland and Hungary surprised the market in 2018 by adding to their gold holdings for the first time in many years. Central banks were expected to increase their purchases of gold in 2018 for the first time in five years as eastern European and Asian countries seek to diversify their reserves, according to an October projection by consultancy Metals Focus Ltd.

By Ranjeetha Pakiam
Bloomberg News
Monday, January 7, 2019

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-07/china-adds-to-gold-re…

After a hiatus of more than two years, China is adding to its gold reserves again.

The People’s Bank of China increased holdings to 59.56 million ounces by the end of December, or about 1,853 metric tons, from 59.24 million ounces previously, according to data on the central bank’s website. They had been unchanged since about 130,000 ounces were added in October 2016.

end

So true:  this report talks about the manipulations and interventions fighting bad economic fundamentals

(courtesy King Report/MRamsey/gata)

King Report: Manipulations and interventions fight bad fundamentals

 Section: 

From the King Report
Burr Ridge, Illinois
Monday, January 7, 2019

https://mramseyking.com/king-report

Will the stock index futures manipulators keep trying to offset real sellers?

Will the various interventions continue?

The stock market is now a game of negative fundamentals inducing real selling vs. manipulators and sovereign interveners. It is not a game that should be played. Only those who must play should enter the equity market mixmaster. …

END

Kranzler correctly details how stocks will fall along with the dollar in 2019 accompanies with a rising price of gold and silver

(Dave Kranzler/IRD/GATA)

Dave Kranzler: Welcome to 2019 — Declining stocks, falling dollar, and rising gold and silver

 Section: 

By Dave Kranzler
Investment Research Dynamics, Denver
Monday, January 7, 2019

The stock market has become the United States’ sacred cow.

For some reason stock prices have become synonymous with economic growth and prosperity. In truth the stock market is nothing more than a reflection of the inflation and currency devaluation caused by the Federal Reserve’s money printing and lascivious enablement of rampant credit creation.

Ninety-nine percent of all U.S. households have not experienced the rising prosperity and wealth of the upper 1 percent. The Fed’s own wealth- distribution statistics support this assertion. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/welcome-to-2019-declining-stocks-a…

end





iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

 

 

 

-END-

 

end

 

 

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.8537/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8584   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 6.63 PTS OR 0.26%

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 38.75 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 165.97 POINTS OR 0.82%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 95.73/Euro FALLS TO 1.1461

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.64/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 49.07 and Brent: 58.06

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.23%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.92% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.50%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.69: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.35

3k Gold at $1282.40 silver at:15.60   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 30/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.98

3m oil into the 49 dollar handle for WTI and 58 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.64 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9795 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1227 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.23%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.70% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.98%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4694

 

 

US Futures, European Stocks Jump On Trade Optimism

S&P futures, European equities and Asian stocks all jumped as investors awaited a positive outcome from trade talks between the US and China economies, ahead of a televised address by President Donald Trump in which he is expected to use emergency powers to announce the construction of a border wall, while the US government shutdown enters its 18th day.

Chinese authorities plan to give a statement following the latest round of U.S. trade talks which ends today in Beijing, after both sides signaled progress toward resolving a conflict that has roiled markets, Bloomberg reported. “The talks are still underway and I believe we will release a detailed readout after they are concluded,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang told reporters at a regular briefing Tuesday in Beijing.

While no timing was given and it wasn’t immediately clear if the U.S. would release a statement, on Monday Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed optimism, telling CNBC that “there’s a very good chance that we’ll get a reasonable settlement.” This took place after China’s Vice Premier Liu He made an unexpected appearance at the talks on Monday in a sign the Chinese were also pushing for a positive outcome.

This was enough to push futures on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 to session highs, with the Dow pointing to a 200 point gain with the S&P over 20 points higher, and nearly 11% higher from the Christmas Eve plunge when Steven Mnuchin activated the Plunge Protection Team.

China’s Foreign Ministry said Beijing had the “good faith” to work with the United States to resolve trade frictions, but many analysts doubt the two sides can reach a comprehensive agreement on all of the issues before a March deadline. “Various concerns markets had earlier are receding for now. Still, there’s no denying that U.S. (company) earnings momentum is slowing,” said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities. “Ultimately we need to see whether upcoming earnings reports can dispel market concerns.”

European stocks also stormed higher, led by retailers and real estate companies, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index over 1.1% higher…

… after shrugging off a shockingly weak German industrial production drop, the biggest since the financial crisis, and worsening euro-area consumer confidence to advance.

“I think the market has been quite extreme in pricing recession risks, so I think we have value now in both the equity and bond markets,” SEB investment management’s global head of asset allocation Hans Peterson said. “The discussions between the U.S and China will take some time but I think the markets are prepared to move in the right direction on positive signals.”

Earlier, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan reversed early gains however to end down 0.2%. It was dragged lower by falls in South Korea due to Samsung and in China where government bond yields also saw their biggest daily gain in 9 months.  Japanese shares and Hong Kong stocks closed higher, though equities slid in South Korea while China’s Shanghai Composite closed closed down after flirting with gains and losses despite renewed promises of more easing by Beijing.

Korean stocks were impacted after Samsung Electronics surprised the market on Tuesday with a 29% drop in quarterly profit, blaming weak chip demand in a rare commentary issued to “ease confusion” among investors already fretting about a global tech slowdown. The South Korean firm also said profit would remain subdued in the first quarter due to difficult conditions in memory chips, but that the market is likely to improve in the second half of the year as customers release new smartphones. Weaker earnings at the world’s biggest maker of smartphones and semiconductors adds to worries for investors already on edge after Apple last week took the rare move of cutting its quarterly sales forecast, citing poor iPhone sales in China.

Dollar bulls got a breather as Treasuries steadied before a televised address by President Donald Trump, while the dollar gained for the first time in four days as investors dialed back some of the bets taken over the past week; rising stocks damped demand for the yen and short-covering in USD/JPY also bolstered the greenback. The euro retreated after touching 1.1485 as an unexpected fall in German industrial output for the third straight month helped to weaken the euro zone currency. The pound retreated after earlier touching a one-week high against the dollar amid supportive cross flows as traders assessed chances that the European Union will offer fresh assurances to U.K. PM Theresa May on the Irish border. Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar hit one-month highs, having gained 2.7 percent in the past five days on gains in oil prices and on speculation the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again this week. It last stood at 1.3272 per U.S. dollar. Emerging-market currencies lost steam while oil extended its advance.

Treasuries held steady and European bonds fell. Large short positions in bunds were covered through option trades amid another set of soft data out of the euro area that kept the euro offered. Stocks traded globally in the green, while euro-area bonds drifted lower.

In the latest Brexit news, UK and EU leaders are reportedly in talks regarding possibly extending Article 50 past March 29th amid fears that a Brexit agreement will not be struck in time, according to the Telegraph. However, a UK Downing Street spokeswoman later stated that UK PM May has always said we would leave the EU on March 29th and that we would not extend Article 50. Instead, UK PM May is said to be pinning her hopes on a last-minute offer from Brussels to avoid her Brexit deal suffering a defeat at the House of Commons on the 15th January. Furthermore, UK PM will today be urged ‘play hardball’ with the EU by offering UK lawmakers a vote on her deal with the condition that they would be able to decide at a later date whether or not to enter the Irish backstop.

In the latest geopolitical developments, we reported earlier that Turkish President Erdogan said that he cannot accept US National Security Advisor Bolton’s comments on Syria, and that he has made a serious mistake, adding that he has agreement with US President Trump, but the administration are stating different things.

Oil traded near $49 a barrel in New York, with Brent (+1.6%) and WTI (+1.5%) in the green, trading within a range of around USD 1.0/bbl as there have been no new major catalysts. Positive risk sentiment is predominantly fuelled on trade talk optimism between the US and China. The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister says he hopes India will seek another US waiver on Iranian sanctions. Separately, the Arab Petroleum Corp expects oil prices to trade between USD 60-70/bbl by the middle of the year.

Gold (-0.4%) is down as the dollar recovered lost ground overnight, alongside an improvement in risk sentiment as markets are optimistic that a deal can be reached between US and China. Separately, China have restarted their gold purchases following a two-year break; with 0.32M/oz of the yellow metal added to their reserves in December 2018. Canadian sources state that the US and Canada are not currently, or scheduled to begin, negotiating to lift metal tariffs; despite reports that discussions had been held on steel tariffs.

Expected data include NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, while the publication of trade-balance figures has been postponed by government shutdown. Helen of Troy is among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 2,562.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 345.23
  • MXAP down 0.04% to 148.36
  • MXAPJ down 0.1% to 478.51
  • Nikkei up 0.8% to 20,204.04
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,518.43
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 25,875.45
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 2,526.46
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 35,990.11
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 5,722.44
  • Kospi down 0.6% to 2,025.27
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 0.239%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1459
  • Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 2.538%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.0 bps to 1.53%
  • Brent futures up 1.3% to $58.09/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,283.19
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 95.87

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The Trump administration expressed optimism it can reach a “reasonable” trade deal with China as President Xi Jinping dispatched a top aide to the negotiations. China is said to buy more U.S. soyPrime Minister Theresa May is considering a move that could water down her threat to crash Britain out of the European Union without a deal, according to a person familiar with her thinking
  • President Donald Trump plans to deliver a prime-time televised address on Tuesday before he travels to the U.S.-Mexico border later in the week as he battles Democrats over his proposed border wall
  • A dramatic plunge in German industrial activity late last year raised the risk that Europe’s largest economy will slip into recession. Production fell for a third month in November and posted its worst year-on-year drop since the end of the financial crisis
  • Donald Trump’s national security adviser will tell Turkish leaders on Tuesday that the planned withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria has morphed into a slower and more complicated exit with the prospect of an indefinite American footprint in the war-torn country
  • Kim Jong Un is making his fourth visit to China, in a sign that the North Korean leader is seeking Chinese President Xi Jinping’s counsel ahead of a possible second summit with Donald Trump
  • Declines in euro-yen hedging costs and Japan’s yields mean that investors from the Asian nation could pick up at least 10 basis points when buying currency-hedged 10-year French bonds instead of 30-year JGBs, a benchmark comparison. As recently as November, they would suffer a loss
  • Former Federal Reserve economist Nellie Liang withdrew from consideration for a seat on the central bank’s board of governors, the White House said. Liang dropped out of her own accord and wasn’t pressured, said a person familiar with the matter
  • Italy’s populist government has flagged its readiness to help cash-strapped Banca Carige SpA, approving state guarantees on any future bond issues and signaling its support for a possible precautionary recapitalization.
  • Oil notched its longest stretch of daily gains in more than 17 months
  • Samsung Electronics Co.’s quarterly profit and sales missed estimates on sputtering demand for memory chips during the last three months of 2018

Asian equity markets traded mixed as the region failed to take full advantage from the performance on Wall St where US-China trade hopes saw all US majors extend on recent gains. ASX 200 (+0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) got a tailwind from their counterparts stateside where focus centred on the resumption of trade talks between the world’s 2 largest economies which was surprisingly attended by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He who is a top economic adviser to President Xi, while recent currency flows were also favourable for Japanese stocks. Conversely, KOSPI (-0.6%) lagged following disappointing preliminary Q4 results from index giant and tech heavyweight Samsung Electronics, while Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) and Hang Seng (+0.2%) were indecisive after another liquidity drain by the PBoC and with weakness seen in auto names led by Geely following a near-40% decline in December sales. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued amid gains in Japanese stocks although strong results at the 10yr auction, later provided a floor for prices

Top Asian News

  • North Korea’s Kim Visits China Ahead of Possible Trump Summit
  • SoftBank Is Said to Plan Smaller $2 Billion Investment in WeWork
  • Bayer Gets Rare Monsanto Reprieve With India Cotton Seed Ruling
  • Nomura to Switch to Merit-Based Pay for Japan-Based Brokers

Major European indices are in the green [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%] with gains generally broad-based. The FTSE 100 (+0.9%) is in the green with Ashtead Group (+3.7%) in the green after being upgraded at UBS and Tesco (+3.2%) in the green as their sales in the 12 weeks to December 30th increased +0.6% vs. Prev. -0.1% according to the Kantar update. Sectors are also in the green with some underperformance in energy and material names. Other notable movers include Morrisons (-3.4%) who are towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after Kantar data showed lower sales in the 12 weeks to December 30th of +0.1% vs. Prev. +0.5%; with the Co also reaffirming their 2018/19 targets. Unilever (-0.2%) are in the red after being downgraded at UBS.

Top European News

  • Bang & Olufsen Shares Gain as Luxury Hi-Fi Maker Calls Bottom
  • Brexit- Wary U.K. Shoppers Keep Lid on Holiday Grocery Spending
  • ‘Beast From the East’ Chill May Boost Energy Demand in Europe
  • Goldman Sees Three Routes to Europe Capital-Goods Outperformance

In FX, it was a choppy day for the dollar as the index recovered lost ground overnight and tested 96.000 (vs. intraday low 95.620) to the upside before pulling back to around 95.750 as markets await further details on US-Sino trade-related dialogue and US CPI later in the week. The dollar has re-gained traction in EU trade to retest the big figure ahead of US President Trump’s speech on the Southern border at 2100EST/0200GMT.

  • GBP – A volatile day for the Pound as vague and contradicting Brexit reports emerge with initial upside in Sterling seen following comments from Irish PM Varadkar, who stated that the EU are willing to offer fresh written assurances on the backstop, ahead of House of Commons meaningful vote next week. Subsequently, Cable rose to levels just shy of 1.2800 shortly before retreating to around 1.2750 amid lack of clarity on the so-called assurances alongside the EU repeatedly stating that Brexit negotiations are not to be reopened and Brexiteers desiring an overhauled deal. GBP has been relatively indecisive overnight as Telegraph reports that UK and EU leaders are said to be in talks over extending Article 50 were shortly shot down by a Downing St. spokesman. Brexit Minister Barclay emerged during early EU trade to also deny the aforementioned Telegraph reports, whilst also adding that the process of the A50 extension is too complex. From a technical perspective, Cable resides just below its 50 DMA (1.2773) while options see 353mln expiring at 1.2770 at today’s NY cut.
  • EUR – On the backfoot following a dollar-dominated Asia-Pac session as the single currency was slightly dented by the release of disappointing German industrial output which ING and Lloyds highlight increases the risk of a German recession. This saw EUR fall from levels just shy of 1.1450 to a low print of 1.1433. In terms of technicals, the pair’s 100 DMA lies at 1.1477 while a large 1bln in option expiries rests between 1.1425-35, potentially diluting some upside.
  • AUD, NZD –The antipodeans are the marked G10 underperformers, also falling victim to the greenback, with the Aussie initially pressured upon the release of a narrower than expected trade surplus overnight. As EU trade went underway, the NZD and AUD lost more ground to the buck with the former retreating further below 0.7150 to lows in close proximity of its 50 HMA around 0.7120. Meanwhile the latter sits nearer to the bottom of a 0.6730-60 range with its 100 DMA around 0.6680.
  • TRY– The Lira weakens for a second consecutive day amid comments from Turkish President Erdogan who rejected US National Security Advisor Bolton’s statement that the withdrawal of US troops from Syria depend on certain conditions, including Turkish assurances that the Kurds in Northern Syria would be safe. Given the possible repercussions on the relationship between Turkey and the States, USD/TRY rose past 5.4000 to a high print of 5.4767 (vs. low of 5.3800) ahead of the next psychological level at 5.5000.

In commodities, Brent (+1.6%) and WTI (+1.5%) in the green, trading within a range of around USD 1.0/bbl as there have been no new major catalysts. Positive risk sentiment is predominantly fuelled on trade talk optimism between the US and China; where Chinese Vice Premier Liu He unexpectedly attending the talks, which were scheduled to be held at a vice-ministerial level. Elsewhere, the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister says he hopes India will seek another US waiver on Iranian sanctions. Separately, the Arab Petroleum Corp expects oil prices to trade between USD 60-70/bbl by the middle of the year. Gold (-0.4%) is down as the dollar recovered lost ground overnight, alongside an improvement in risk sentiment as markets are optimistic that a deal can be reached between US and China. Separately, China have restarted their gold purchases following a two-year break; with 0.32M/oz of the yellow metal added to their reserves in December 2018. Canadian sources state that the US and Canada are not currently, or scheduled to begin, negotiating to lift metal tariffs; despite reports that discussions had been held on steel tariffs.

Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got the November trade balance, JOLTS job openings and consumer credit prints. Away from all that US-China trade talks are expected to continue while the World Bank should release its latest global growth forecasts at some stage today.

US Event Calendar

  • 6am: NFIB small business optimism, est. 103, prior 104.8
  • 8:30am: Trade balance data postponed by government shutdown
  • 10am: JOLTS job openings, est. 7,050, prior 7,079
  • 3pm: Consumer credit, est. $17.5b, prior $25.4b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Compared to the relentless barrage of headlines in the last few sessions, the past 24 hours has either been dull or a welcome breather depending on your position. The good news though is that US equities made further headway on Friday’s employment report and Powell inspired gains yesterday. The S&P 500 closed up +0.70% last night, DOW +0.42% and NASDAQ an even more impressive +1.26%. To put a bit of context around the last couple of sessions, this has been the biggest two-day percentage jump for the S&P, excluding the outsized Boxing Day rally session, since August 2015.US HY spreads also rallied another 20bps in cash terms which puts the two-day move at an impressive -60bps, the best two-day stretch since June 2009. Amazingly the range for US HY spreads in the whole of H1 2018 was just 51bps. So we’ve easily eclipsed that in just a few sessions already. Treasury yields had actually nudged lower during the European session as risk stuttered a bit (eventually culminating with the STOXX 600 down -0.15%) however then weakened as the US walked in with 10y yields back up to 2.697% (+2.7bps on the day) and 2s10s curve slightly flatter at 15.1bps. WTI Oil climbed another +1.17% which certainly helped risk while the USD index (-0.53%) hit its lowest since last October.

In all honesty, there wasn’t a huge amount to report. The US-China trade talks haven’t brought about any headlines of particular substance however are still ongoing so it’s worth seeing if anything comes out. Yesterday, US Commerce Secretary Ross said that there is a “very good chance” that a “reasonable” agreement would be reached but “the real issue is what are the enforcement mechanisms, what are the punishments if people don’t do what they were supposed to do?” On the talks, it didn’t go unnoticed that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He unexpectedly attended the discussions yesterday. It was previously expected that only mid-ranking officials would attend, so the inclusion of the top economic adviser to President Xi Jinping is significant insofar as China is attaching importance to the talks. Bloomberg reported yesterday that Liu is expected to meet with US Trade Representative Lighthizer later this month.

Relatedly, our US economists cited trade as the number one uncertainty to the US economy and Fed outlook, which they updated yesterday (link here ). They modestly lowered their 2019 growth forecast by -0.1pp to 2.3%, though they maintain their existing inflation and unemployment projections. They now see a base case for two Fed hikes this year, as the Fed responds to tighter financial conditions with a slower hiking pace. If the US-China trade dispute resolves positively, they see scope for a third hike this year. If tariffs escalate further, they think a recession and rate cuts are possible.

Continuing the Powell-induced trend toward a so-called “relent” and alongside our economists’ new projections, Atlanta Fed President Bostic talked down his rate expectations yesterday. He said that “right now, I’m at one move for 2019,” though he highlighted the possibility that he could support more or fewer hikes, depending on how trade policy develops and how the economy responds. Bostic is not a voter this year, but we’ll hear from voters Evans and Rosengren tomorrow and Bullard, Clarida, and Powell on Thursday. Perhaps equally important for risk sentiment will be President Trump’s planned address to the nation at 9pm ET tonight, where he will comment on the ongoing government shutdown. Midnight tonight is the unofficial deadline for a deal which would still enable furloughed federal employees to receive pay checks this Friday. So, barring a surprise breakthrough, the pain of the shutdown will begin to be felt soon.

Meanwhile, and just in case you’d been missing them, Brexit headlines were back yesterday. However it wasn’t particularly exciting. Speaking to the British press, PM May mostly reiterated the points made over the weekend, specifically that before the debate begins again tomorrow, government will set out further assurances from the EU on the backstop and specific measures for Northern Ireland to alleviate the need for a backstop, as well as seek a greater role for parliament in negotiations on the future relationship. A vote next Tuesday is looking likely now. Yesterday DB’s Oliver Harvey published his latest update in which he reiterated his base case that May fails to secure ratification for the agreement in parliament next week. He attaches a 60% probability to May continuing with the current agreement and losing the vote (or delaying the vote again in the face of defeat) and a 40% chance of May pivoting to a softer Brexit stance and therefore gaining parliamentary support. He sees a 35% chance that article 50 is extended to accommodate more negotiations, new elections, or a second referendum, and a 10% chance of a “crash Brexit.” See this link for the full set of Oli’s further probabilities in the face of losing the vote next week.

It’s been a busy day couple of days for DB research with our European equity strategist Sebastian Raedler arguing that current market conditions resemble the growth scare in late 2015 / early 2016. On both occasions, the rate of change in global PMIs turned sharply negative and markets priced significant further growth weakness on the back of China macro concerns and US recession worries. Back then, the worries were misplaced: PMIs rebounded, leading equities to rally by 20%+ and cyclical sectors to outperform sharply. He thinks the episode offers a good playbook for the current situation. His macro projections are consistent with 10% upside for European equities and 15% upside for cyclical versus defensives over the coming six months. See the link to the report here .

To markets in Asia now where sentiment is more mixed with the Nikkei (+1.49%) and Hang Seng (+0.35%) up fairly comfortably while the Shanghai Comp (-0.23%) and Kospi (-0.10%) are currently in the red. The declines in China and Korea appear to be partly impacted by a much weaker than expected earnings release from Samsung, which follows the latest downgraded guidance from Apple following weak demand in China. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 are up +0.47% in early trade today and most Asian currencies are trading weaker against the greenback this morning.

In other news, yesterday’s data wasn’t much of a market mover. The non-manufacturing ISM for December in the US mirrored the manufacturing print in coming below expectations at 57.6 (vs. 58.5 expected and 60.7 previously). However, as it came out after Friday’s employment report it lost some of its usual impact especially with the most significant employment component reading coming in just over 2pts lower at 56.3 (which ironically would have likely heightened concerns ahead of payrolls). The associated text included the usual concern about tariffs that has become more commonplace, however the overall tone indicated further cyclical strength albeit there were some building concerns over labour shortages.

Prior to this, in Europe the highlight of a quiet European calendar had been a softer than expected November factory orders report out of Germany. Orders came in at -1.0% mom (vs. -0.1% expected), albeit distorted by aircraft orders. Still, the year-on-year figure dipped to its lowest level since 2012 at -4.3%. Later in the morning we learned that investor confidence in the Euro Area wasn’t quite as bad as feared with the Sentix reading dropping to -1.5 in January from -0.3, compared to expectations for a drop to -2.0. Note also that DB’s Mark Wall lowered his 2019 euro area GDP forecast -0.2pp to 1.2% on the softer outlook for external demand. Full note available here .

As for the day ahead, early this morning in Europe the focus should be on the November industrial production report in Germany. Not long after that we get the November trade balance for France before we then get December house prices data in the UK and the final December consumer confidence revision for the Euro Area. In the US we’ve got the December NFIB small business optimism reading to look forward to along with November trade balance, JOLTS job openings and consumer credit prints. Away from all that US-China trade talks are expected to continue while the World Bank should release its latest global growth forecasts at some stage today

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.63 PTS OR 0.26% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 38.75 POINTS OR 0.15% /The Nikkei closed UP 165.97 POINTS OR 0.82% / Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.68%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8537 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 49.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.06 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8537 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8584: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/CHINA

Xi invites Kim to China for talks and that will send a strong message to Trump.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

Xi Invites Kim To China As US Trade Talks Begin

As US-China trade talks begin (with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the top economic adviser to President Xi Jinping, unexpectedly attending)the x-dimensional chessboard of global geopolitics just got a little more complicated.

Korean Central News Agency reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un left Pyongyang with his wife Ri Sol Ju on Monday afternoon tovisit China from January 7 to 10, at the invitation of Xi Jinping.

He was accompanied by Kim Yong Chol, Ri Su Yong, Pak Thae Song, Ri Yong Ho and other leading officials.

As Reuters reports, Kim’s visit, his fourth summit with Xi, comes amid reports of advanced negotiations for a second summit between the North Korean leader and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Kim travelled to China three times to meet with Xi last year before and after summits with U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

And while no details were released on the topics for discussion but it seems likely that Kim will be used as leverage in the negotiations with President Trump.

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

i)CHINA/North Korea/USA

the message is clear:  If Trump wants peace in the peninsula, then China must be involved.  If Trump wants a good trade deal with China then China must also benefit from it and markers will be called in with respect to North Korea.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Kim Jong Un Begins Summit In Beijing As China’s Xi Sends “Message” To US

Just as the second day of mid-level trade talks between US and Chinese delegations in Beijing was beginning, a surprising report crossed the wire: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had been invited to travel to China for the first time since June to meet with President Xi Jinping. News of the visit immediately provoked speculation that Beijing was trying to send a message: If the US wants peace on the Korean peninsula, China will need to be involved.

Underscoring that point, President Trump affirmed last week that Washington and Pyongyang are planning a second diplomatic summit (though Trump claimed that North Korea was showing some reluctance) to continue negotiations about denuclearizing the peninsula.

Kim

And while talks between the US and the North have hit an impasse over the US’s unwillingness to lift sanctions until the North finishes surrendering his nukes – the North, on the other hand, has been pushing for their gradual removal – South Korean news agency Yonhap reported Tuesday, citing intelligence agency reports, that the North and China might discuss the prospects for “a peace treaty” with South Korea that would formally end the Korean War – one of the loftiest goals from the thaw in inter-Korean relations this year.

Kim is expected to remain in China until the weekend.

A special train, carrying Kim and his wife, Ri Sol-ju, arrived in Beijing earlier in the day on a four-day trip at the invitation of Chinese President Xi, according to the North’s state media.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) told lawmakers at a closed-door briefing that Kim may discuss ways to push for a peace treaty that could involve China ahead of his possible second summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, according to lawmakers on the intelligence committee.

In a New Year speech, Kim called for multilateral talks involving the signatories to the truce that ended the 1950-53 Korean War, including China, and replacing it with a peace treaty.

Notably, Kim made his first foreign trip as leader (he traveled by train to China) ahead of the first US-North Korea summit, which suggests that another summit may in fact be in the offing.

His trip raises speculation that a second summit between Trump and Kim might be imminent amid an impasse over North Korea’s denuclearization. They held their historic first summit in June in Singapore.

The NIS said that Kim will likely seek to discuss sanctions relief and Pyongyang’s denuclearization with Xi, according to lawmakers.

Kim appears to want to reaffirm China’s role as the North’s patron and receive a security guarantee as the two countries mark the 70th anniversary of their diplomatic ties this year.

One South Korean lawmaker said Kim’s visit may have been planned to “put pressure” on the US.

The NIS also added that Kim is expected to inspect industrial facilities in the southeastern Chinese city of Tianjin.

The spy agency believes that Kim has an interest in the electricity, tourism and construction sectors.

“Kim’s visit seems aimed at coordinating stances between the North and China ahead of a potential (Kim-Trump) meeting,” a lawmaker told Yonhap News Agency.

“At the same time, he apparently seeks to put pressure on the U.S. by highlighting the North’s ties with China.”

Ironically, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lu Kang said during a Tuesday press conference that Kim’s visit was not unusual and that North Korea would not become “a bargaining chip” in US trade talks. “China and the DPRK are friendly and close neighbors and it is also an important tradition for us to maintain friendly exchanges,” Lu said.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

The timing of Kim’s China visit is clearly linked to the planned second summit between him and President Trump. As to whether this is used as a bargaining chip by China in trade talks, I believe more Americans would think so than Chinese do.

The message is clear: If Washington wants peace on the Korean peninsula – or a completely de-nuclearized North Korea – it will need to work with Beijing.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Germany

This is not good for Europe.  Germany is the engine for growth and it has the advantage of a low Euro to help them.  If Germany would vacate the EMU, it would be using its German Mark and it would be trading much higher on an equivalent basis vs the euro.  If Germany cannot growth, then the rest of Europe must be in disaster shape

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Shocking German Industrial Production Plunge Stokes Recession Fears In Europe’s Largest Economy

Mere hours after German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier assured the German public that the country’s economy will continue to expand despite a recent raft of discouraging economic data, official data – unlike the US, Germany’s government is open and economic data continue to be reported – showed German industrial activity plunged the most since 2009, confirming a weak factory orders print from Monday and sparking fresh fears that Europe’s largest economy may have entered a recession during Q4 just as Mario Draghi was preparing to end the ECB’s purchases of government bonds.

Germ

According to Bloombergindustrial production fell for a third month in November (-1.9% m/m, and -4.9% y/y) with weakness in everything from consumer goods to energy. In another warning sign for the bloc, the data was released alongside a eurozone-wide sentiment reading which showed that economic confidence had slumped late last year.

The dismal IP reading confirmed a just as ugly German factory orders print from Monday which tumbled far more than expected in November.Orders slid 1% from October, and posted a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, the biggest drop in more than six years

German

The data raise the possibility that while European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was assuring investors in December that the Continent’s economy had enough momentum to justify tapering the central bank’s asset purchases, its largest constituent may have been sliding into a recession.

For what it’s worth, Germany’s central bank said Tuesday it’s “looking through the volatility of monthly economic data” and wouldn’t comment on individual reports. The bank has been hoping for a rebound from the German economy’s Q3 contraction, arguing that the shrinkage was due to temporary factors like new auto emissions rules.

One economist said that even if the German economy manages to avoid a recession, it’s looking likely that industrial output probably contracted in the fourth quarter.

“The latest data, even assuming a bounce back in December, mean industrial output probably contracted in the fourth quarter. The decline is big enough to have a meaningful impact on GDP growth, and creates a risk that the economy shrank again.”

But in a reflection of the bad-news-is-good-news dynamic that reasserted itself in the US on Monday, German stocks rallied on the news, while German bund yields climbed but soon pared their move.

end

/ FRANCE

How the “Muslimization” of France led to the yellow vest movement and the loss in popularity of Macron.  France is in free fall.

a must read…

(courtesy Gatestone Institute/Milliere)

France In Free Fall

Authored by Guy Milliere via The Gatestone Institute,

  • French officials evidently understand that the terrorists are engaged in a long war and that it will be difficult to stop them; so they seem to have given in. These officials are no doubt aware that young French Muslims are being radicalized in increasing numbers. The response, however, has been to strengthen Muslim institutions in France.
  • At the time President Macron was speaking, one of his emissaries was in Morocco to sign the UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, which defines immigration as “beneficial” for the host countries. Under it, signatory states pledge to “strengthen migrant-inclusive service delivery systems.”
  • A group of retired generals published an open letter, saying that signing the Global Compact was a further step towards “the abandonment of national sovereignty” and noted that “80% of the French population think that immigration must be halted or regulated drastically”.
  • The author Éric Zemmour described the “yellow vests” revolt as the result of the “despair of people who feel humiliated, forgotten, dispossessed of their own country by the decisions of a contemptuous caste”.

French President Emmanuel Macron seems to hope that weariness will lead the “yellow vests” protestors to give up, but there seems no sign of it yet. On the contrary, the “yellow vests” seem dedicated to bringing him down. Pictured: “Yellow vests” protesters on December 15, 2018 in Paris, France. (Photo by Veronique de Viguerie/Getty Images)

Strasbourg, France. Christmas market. December 11th, 8pm. A man shouting, “Allahu Akbar” (“Allah is the greatest”) shoots at passersby, then wounds several with a knife. He murders three people on the spot and wounds a dozen others, some severely. Two will later die of their wounds. The murderer escapes. Two days later, the police shoot him dead.

He was known to the police. When members of the General Directorate of Internal Security and some gendarmes came to his home a few hours earlier, he had escaped. Although they knew he was an armed and dangerous Islamist ready to act, and that Christmas markets had been, and could be, likely targets, no surveillance was in place.

The murderer, Cherif Chekatt, should, in fact, have been kept off the streets. He was 29 years old, his name was on the list of people reported for terrorist radicalization (FSPRT), and he and had already been sentenced for crimes 27 times. He was nevertheless roaming around free, with no police oversight.

His case is similar to that of many jihadi terrorists in France in the last decade. Others include Mohamed Merah, who murdered Jewish children in Toulouse in 2012; Cherif and Said Kouachi, who murdered most of the staff at the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in 2015, and Amedy Coulibaly, who murdered people at a kosher supermarket few days later.

Successive governments have done exactly nothing to remedy the situation. Instead, they delivered speeches and stationed soldiers about the streets. “Young French people must get used to living with the threat of attacks”, then-Prime Minister Manuel Valls said in 2015. Two years later, just before the first round of the presidential elections, Emmanuel Macron, still a candidate, used almost the same words. Terrorism, he said, is “imponderable” and will constitute a “threat that will be part of the daily life of the French for the years to come”.

French laws are extremely laxEven serial killers and terrorists are not sentenced to long prison terms. Most prisons have become jihadist recruiting stations. Currently, more than 600 no-go zones are under the control of imams and Muslim gangs. Islamists, apparently “ready to act”, number in the thousands. The police simply do not have the personnel or material resources to monitor all of them

The only political leaders who have proposed tougher laws against terrorism, or who have said that exceptional measures were needed — such as a wider use of electronic ankle-bracelets — to counter increasing threats, come from parties considered “right-wing”. The mainstream media immediately branded these leaders as “extremists” and their proposals were dismissed.

Macron and his government continue their unfortunate tradition of submitting to political correctness. It seems they prefer to appease extremists rather than confront them.

These politicians are undoubtedly aware that more riots could take place. In 2016, the head of the French General Directorate for internal Security, Patrick Calvar, spoke of a high risk of “clashes between communities”, perhaps even civil war.

These officials evidently understand that the terrorists are engaged in a long war and that it will be difficult to stop them; so they seem to have given in. These officials are no doubt aware that young French Muslims are being radicalized in increasing numbers. The response, however, has been to strengthen Muslim institutions in France.

Although these officials also presumably see that Muslim immigration into France continues, and that hundreds of thousands of illegal Muslim migrants are creating increased security concerns, they do nothing to reverse the trend. The number of deportations is rising, but are still rare: slightly more than 26,000 persons were deported in 2017. Meanwhile, more than 150,000 illegal immigrants live in Seine Saint Denis, near Paris. Macron, since becoming President, has repeatedly said that those who call on him to expel illegal immigrants are “xenophobic“.

Macron and the current government, in fact, have been encouraging more migration: all illegal immigrants in France receive financial assistance if they ask for it, as well as free health care; and they run almost no risk of being deported.

Each year, more than 200,000 residence permits are issued (262,000 in 2017), including to illegal immigrants. Many have no marketable skills, some receive for decades the minimum income paid to anyone in difficulty.

Social support for migrants, legal or not, adds to the cost of an increasingly expensive welfare system. France today is the most highly taxed country in the developed world: compulsory levies correspond to more than 45% of GDP. Unemployment is high at 9.1%. Typical salaries are both low and stagnant. A public school teacher starting out earns 1,794 euros per month ($2,052). A police officer after a year of service earns even less: 1,666 euros per month ($1,906).

Macron, when elected president, promised to boost growth and improve purchasing power. To encourage large and multinational companies to invest in France, he lowered their taxes and eliminated a tax on wealth. As he apparently did not wish to increase the French budget deficit (2.6% in 2017), he created new taxes and increased a few of the taxes paid by the entire population, including fuel taxes.

It was in this context that the “yellow vest” (“gilets jaunes”) protestors – who have been rioting throughout France for the eight weekends, came into being. They have vowed to keep on demonstrating.

The new taxes, plus the increase in existing taxes, have led many people into real financial straits. Many also saw the reduction of taxes on large companies coupled with the removal of the wealth tax for the rich as outrageously unfair. They see perfectly well that a lack of security is spreading, that immigration is exploding and that the government is not providing sufficient law and order.

Macron’s remarks, such as a comparing “those who are successful and those who are nothing” — or his assertion that “the life of an entrepreneur is much harder than that of an employee” — gave him the image of an arrogant upstart who despises the poor and knows nothing about the problems they face. Some of his utterances — such as, “there is not a French culture” or the French are Gauls“resistant to change” — led many to believe that he did not even have respect for the French or for France.

The proliferation of speed radars on the roads, and the lowering of the speed limit to 80km/h, apart from freeways, as well as a noticeable increase in speeding tickets as a result, also did nothing to help his approval ratings.

Finally, an additional increase in fuel taxes sparked a revolt that has not stopped to this day.

The first protest by the “yellow vests”, which took place on November 17, spontaneously gathered hundreds of thousands of people across the country and had the support of more than 80% of the population.

Rather than react quickly and say that he understood the difficulties of millions of French, Macron waited 10 days until a second demonstration, bigger than the first, to respond. He then delivered a speech focusing on the environment and emphasizing that fuel taxes were necessary to fight “climate change”.

His words appeared totally out of touch with the economic distress felt by the public.

Four days later, on December 1, a third demonstration drew even more people than the second. Protesters waved French flags and sang the national anthem. People who spoke on television said that Macron had made fun of them and reminded him of his promises. They demanded his resignation, new elections, and a return of sovereignty to the people.

Gangs from the suburbs looted stores and destroyed property. The police were particularly brutal to the protesters, but could not stop the looting or destruction.

Macron said nothing.

On December 8, the day of the fourth demonstration, Paris was effectively set under siegeArmored vehicles were deployed along the main avenues. Thousands of police officers sealed off access to the neighborhood of the presidential residence, the Élysée Palace. A helicopter waited in the courtyard of the Élysée Palace, in case Macron needed to be evacuated. Looting and destruction began again.

When Macron finally decided to say something, on December 10, he announced a slight increase in the minimum wage and the removal of some taxes. He promised to open a “national debate” and announced the need to review the rules for immigration. However, at the time Macron was speaking, one of his emissaries was in Morocco on behalf of France to sign the UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, which defines immigration as “beneficial” for the host countries. Under it, signatory states pledge to “strengthen migrant-inclusive service delivery systems.” The next day, the terrorist attack near a Christmas market in Strasbourg took place, in which five people were murdered.

The public’s anger did not subside. The “yellow vest” protestors who spoke on television the following days said that Macron had evidently not taken the measureof what they were saying. They stated that talking about reviewing the rules for immigration while signing the Global Compact — without taking into account the opinion of the population — showed that Macron was a liar.

A group of retired generals published an open letter, saying that signing the Global Compact was a further step towards “the abandonment of national sovereignty” and noted that “80% of the French population think that immigration must be halted or regulated drastically”.

“In deciding alone to sign this pact,” the generals wrote, “… You are guilty of a denial of democracy, even treason, with respect the nation”.

The Minister of Defense, Florence Parly, said that the generals’ letter was “inadmissible and unworthy”, but did not dispute the arguments it set forth. Again, Macron said nothing.

On December 22, when the fifth demonstration of the “yellow vests” took place, even though the protesters were fewer, their anger seemed more intense. Calls for Macron’s resignation came from everywhere. A puppet representing Macron was symbolically beheaded by an imitation guillotine. A sculpture representing a yellow hand, resembling the logo of SOS Racism, the oldest organization fighting “racism” and “Islamophobia” in France, was burned.

Anti-Semites took the opportunity to offer their usual opinions, but were marginal. Benjamin Griveaux, the government spokesman, however, used their comments to attack the “yellow vest” protesters. He sent a tweet saying that the “yellow vests” were “coward[s], racist[s], anti-Semitic”, and of the type that stages coups. Earlier, he had said that whatever happens, Macron would not “change course”.

Macron seems to hope that weariness will lead the “yellow vests” to give up, but there seems no sign of it yet. On the contrary, the “yellow vests” seem dedicated to bringing him down. Those on television say they are determined to fight “to the end“. The economic damage is considerable; the first estimates numbered hundreds of millions of euros.

“Macron and his team,” wrote Ivan Rioufol, an editorial writer at Le Figaro, recently, “would be wrong to believe that if the mobilization weakens during the Christmas truce, it means they are out of the woods”.

The author Éric Zemmour described the revolt as the result of the “despair of people who feel humiliated, forgotten, dispossessed of their own country by the decisions of a contemptuous caste”. He concluded that he thinks that Macron has lost all legitimacy and that his presidency is over.

Radio commentator Jean-Michel Aphatie, said that the presidency and the government “hang on by a thread”, and that the letter published by the generals is a strong sign that the French institutions are deeply shaken. “If the police falter,” he stressed, “France could quickly slide towards chaos”.

On December 20, two days before the fifth demonstration of the “yellow vests,” police officers organized a protest in front of the Élysée Palace. The vice-president of an organization made up of police officers said that many members are exhausted, feel sympathetic to the revolt and are ready to join it.

The next day, the government increased police officers’ salaries and paid them millions for overtime — payments that had been overdue for months.

“The authorities are really afraid that the police could turn on them,” commentedthe journalist Jean-Michel Aphatie. “It is hard to imagine. It is where we are in France, today”.

The Macron’s popularity is in free fall; it has dropped to 18%. No French president’s popularity has dropped so low, so quickly. Flore Santisteban, a professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies, quoted surveys showing that Macron now crystallizes “an intense hatred, and maybe more than hatred: rage”.

Many commentators are wondering how Macron will still be able to govern in the coming weeks, and ask if he could be forced to resign and call for early presidential elections.

Several news analysts have said that this time, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing, populist National Rally party, could be elected president. The themes of her presidential campaign in 2017 resembled the claims of the “yellow vest” movement.

Macron still says nothing. He is nowhere in sight. His only recent public statements were made in foreign countries: Belgium and Chad. His last public appearance in France was on December 4, in the Massif Central, late in the evening. He went to see the damage done to an official building partly burned by vandals. Although his visit was unannounced, dozens of “yellow vests” arrived, insulted him, and he quickly left.

Polls show that Le Pen’s National Rally could win the European Parliament elections in May 2019 with 24%-25% of the vote. Another right-wing, nationalist party, Debout la France! (France, Stand Up!) headed by MP Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, and allied to the National Rally party , could get 8%. The total would amount to 32%-33% percent of the vote. Macron’s La République En Marche !party, created two years ago, is expected to get only 18% of the vote.

Election to the European Parliament has no direct impact on French political life. Such a result, however, would be a scathing disavowal of Macron — if he manages to stay in power until then.

A few months ago, Macron introduced himself as the champion of an open, “progressive” and multicultural Europe and described the defenders of national sovereignty and all those hostile to immigration and multiculturalism, as “lepers” and supporters of “bellicose nationalism” extolling “the rejection of the other”. He pretended easily to triumph over them.

In July 2017, he hinted that he would rule like the Roman god Jupiter. It did not take long for him to fall from his pedestal.

On the evening of December 31, Macron offered the French people his wishes for the year 2019. He did not apologize. He ignored the grievances of the “yellow vest” protesters and their supporters. He merely said that “anger broke out” and that “order will be maintained without indulgence”. He described in positive terms all that he had done since becoming President. He added that he would “go forward” in the same direction without changing a thing: “I intend to continue to follow the line that I traced since the first day of my mandate”. He described his political opponents as “extremists”, “demagogues” and “megaphones of a crowd full of hatred”. He again said that the “fight against global warming” is an absolute priority.

Many of the “yellow vest” protestors, interviewed on television, appeared upset; some said they had decided not even to listen to the speech. Macron’s political opponents criticized him harshly. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan wrote:

“Tonight the French had the confirmation that Emmanuel Macron learned nothing from the events of 2018. While his politics brought together more than 75% of the French against him, he appeared determined to continue, in defiance of democracy.”

Laurence Saillet, of the moderate right party, The Republicans, said:

“I feel that while the ‘yellow vests’ were protesting, he was on another planet… He has not taken the measure of the country’s anger. He makes no mea culpa, he even assessed his actions positively, precisely what is rejected by the French.”

Marine Le Pen tweeted, “This president is an impostor. And a pyromaniac.”

On January 3, Eric Drouet, one of the main faces of the “yellow vests” movement was arrested by a dozen policeman on his way to the Place de la Concorde in central Paris to light candles to pay tribute to the “yellow vests” wounded or killed since the beginning of the demonstrations. He was peacefully walking on the sidewalk with 15 to 20 of his friends. None of them was shouting or wearing banners, or even a yellow vest. Drouet was indicted for organizing an illegal protest. Macron’s political opponents said that Macron was adding more fuel to the fire.

On January 4, after the first cabinet meeting of the year, Macron asked government spokesman Benjamin Griveaux to say that “those who continue to protest… are agitators who promote insurrection”, and that the government must“go further, in a stronger way”.

On Saturday January 5, thousands of “yellow vests” protested again, calling for Macron’s resignation. They broke down the doors of Griveaux’s office building as he fled. By evening, the streets of Paris and other cities looked like battlefieldsonce more.

 end
Italy/France
Italy’s Salvini offers support to the Yellow Vest movement
(courtesy zerohedge)

Salvini Backs Yellow Vests Against Macron; Claims French President “Against His People”

Italy’s Interior Minister Matteo Salvini and his coalition partner have announced their support for France’s Yellow Vest movement, accusing French President Emmanuel Macron of being “against his people.”

“I support honest citizens protesting against a president who governs against his people,” Salvini said in a statement – while at the same time “firmly” condemning protesters who have resorted to violence.

Meanwhile, Luigi Di Maio, the 32-year-old Deputy Prime MInister of Italy who leads the Five-Star Movement (M5S), has told the Yellow Vests in a Monday blog post “do not give up!” De Maio offered French protesters use of the M5S “Rousseau platform” to help the Yellow Vests improve organization and “draw up an electoral programme,” according to France24

“This system (Rousseau) is made for a horizontal and spontaneous movement such as yours and we would be happy if you want to use it.”

The 5 Star Movement is ready to give you the support you need. Like you, we too strongly condemn those who caused violence during the demonstrations, but we know that your movement is peaceful . We can put at your disposal some functions of our operative system for direct democracy, Rousseau , for example call to action to organize the events on the territory or the voting system to define the electoral program and choose the candidates to be presented in the elections. It ‘a system designed for a horizontal and spontaneous movement like yours and we would be happy if you wanted to use it. –Il Blog delle Stelle (translated)

Luigi Di Maio

@luigidimaio

In Francia, come in Italia, la politica è diventata sorda alle esigenze dei cittadini, tenuti fuori dalle decisioni più importanti che riguardano il popolo. Il grido che si alza forte dalle piazze francesi è uno: “fateci partecipare!”. https://www.ilblogdellestelle.it/2019/01/gilet-gialli-non-mollate.html 

Meanwhile, The Globe and Mail reports that Macron’s tough stance on the Yellow Vest movement has backfired, as French authorities struggle to maintain order.

What began as a grassroots rebellion against diesel taxes and the high cost of living has morphed into something more perilous for Macron – an assault on his presidency and French institutions.

The anti-government protesters on Saturday used a forklift truck to force their way into a government ministry compound, torched cars near the Champs Elysees and in one violent skirmish on a bridge over the Seine punched and kicked riot police officers to the ground. –The Globe and Mail

Macron tweeted over the weekend “Once again, the Republic was attacked with extreme violence – its guardians, its representatives, its symbols.”

Emmanuel Macron

@EmmanuelMacron

Une fois encore, une extrême violence est venue attaquer la République – ses gardiens, ses représentants, ses symboles. Ceux qui commettent ces actes oublient le cœur de notre pacte civique. Justice sera faite. Chacun doit se ressaisir pour faire advenir le débat et le dialogue.

The French President took advantage of the holidays to try and crack down on the Yellow Vest movement – however it was back with a vengeance after the New Year.

And on Monday, French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said that France would clamp down on unauthorized protests, stating “Following unacceptable violence across France, the government plans to respond decisively.” Philippe told LE20H television that anyone who organizes a protest without declaring it first will face harsh punishment.

Embedded video

Edouard Philippe

@EPhilippePM

Vous êtes organisateur d’une manifestation : vous devez la déclarer. Il faut préserver la liberté de manifester en France et il faut sanctionner ceux qui ne respectent pas cette obligation simple. #Le20H

Government spokesman Benjamin Griveaux said on Friday that the government would not cease its efforts to reshape the economy, and branded protesters agitators seeking to overthrow the Macron administration. Twenty-four hours later, Griveaux was fleeing out of the back door of his office as protesters invaded the courtyard and destroyed several cars.

“It wasn’t me who was attacked,” he said later. “It was the Republic.”

Meanwhile, the “Republic” is crushing its citizens under the weight of the highest taxes in the world – which has fueled unrest and anger, particularly among France’s blue-collar workers whose incomes have been squeezed by a bevy of government taxes.

It was this anger that culminated in the Yellow Vest movement, which began with blocking roads, occupying highway tollbooths – and eventually morphing into violent protests across the entire country (and beyond).

end
Bill Blain explains perfectly what is going on in Europe
(courtesy Bill Blain)

Blain: “This Relief Rally Feels Desperate And Too Reliant On The Fed”

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

“It’s very simple – what most people in this country want is the Single Market..”

Take deep breath. Repeat. Say loudly: “There is nothing to worry about except worry itself.. everything will be alright.” Repeat 3 times.  I find it helps…

Actually… the threat board is curiously calm this morning. The Chinese and Americans are making positive noises about solving the trade disputes. The Fed is being terribly helpful. The market didn’t puke yesterday – but, since I can’t get my Bloomberg to work… who knows….

It certainly feels like the world is slowing down.A host of articles from learned economists, traders and hedgies say so. It’s no wonder clients are telling me they’ve been trying to bid for cheap credit paper, but finding everyone else is also back in the frame and also bidding. I suppose it’s what might be construed as a functional market. More than a few folk think bonds offer good value here.

I’m not so sure about stocks. The recent relief rally feels a little bit desperate and too reliant on the Fed continuing to pony up – meaning its vulnerable to an equally swift repeat selloff if the bad news mounts again. Chartists are more succinct: the numbers say stocks are overbought!

* * *

Let’s move on to Brexit: Rumours Theresa May might have a piece of paper in her hand from Ireland saying “Peace in our time”? Excellent dramatic device to move the debate to a successful conclusion… Dream on…

Who else watched Channel 4’s Brexit: Uncivil War last night? The reviews are slating it, but it was fascinating stuff. It reduced the “end-of-British-civilisation-as-we-know-it” to pantomime buffoonery – but how could you avoid it when Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are main characters…? Every one, absolutely every one, of the central players came out looking stupid – which, if my memory serves me well, is pretty much exactly how it happened.

The key issue on how social media data was trawled, engineered, targeted and wielded with such precision should be at the core of Modern Politics 101 – yet, the programme skated over these critical details, preferring to target cheap laughs at Farage, Banks et al. The programme presented Brexit as a classic British underdog drama; the well-meaning, establishment with hearts-in-the-right-place, correct but essentially amateur Remain campaign floored by the professional, dark and dirty Leave campaign. We should all feel robbed….

No. We should all understand why and how.. and then move on accordingly.

The central deranged character, Dominix Cummings’ final warning that this has only just begun is particularly pertinent. Populism will change the world. The closing credits hinted it was American money that underlay the social engineering that won Brexit, testing it for Trump’s campaign. It’s not only how we fix a politically broken Britain, but look to European Elections in May.. (Sound of crashing minor chords..)

* * *

All of which segues neatly into my major concern this morning. What’s to like about European bonds? There is a note in the FT suggesting Italy has to raise about Euro 1 bln every working market day through 2019. Headlines this morning are about German industrial production tumbling in November. There are analyst comments about diminishing potential demand for European sovereign debt when Europe is drifting back into recession without ever having got out of the last one. I even noted one piece (which I can’t find this morning..) warning Germany is using the wrong currency which will create massive crisis domestically.

If the ECB can’t buy European bonds…. Who can?

Why would I buy bonds yielding the square root of nothing, backed by promises from governments using someone else’s currency, where the underlying economies are underperforming and mired in red-tapeunreformed institutionalism, and austerity? Just asking… (I would love to quote you European unemployment numbers – but my Bloomberg is still FU. Suffice to say, unlike the Fed, the ECB does not have to worry about an overheated labour market.)

Last week, the Fed demonstrated a nimble set of wheels when Powell announced he’d slow the pace of rate rises – clearly cogent of the economic and confidence risks of a continued stock market meltdown. This morning, the People’s Bank of China slashed reserves ratios to pump money into the system to boost spending in an effort to stimulate the slowing economy. Both the Fed and BoC have the power to do more – slash rates, margins and even relaunch QE.

Compare and contrast with the ECB. Europe’s Central Bank can’t actually change a lightbulb without first commissioning a wait and see if it’s actually broken policy review. It then requires a 80% majority vote to actually change the bulb, before referring it to the LBRA – The Light Bulb Replacement Authority – based in a new purpose built HQ in Lithuania. Heaven help Europe and the Euro if the globe slides into recession or a slowdown.

QE sort of worked in the UK (before we bazooka’d ourselves over Brexit). It worked in US because the Fed made it work alongside everything else it did to get banks lending and the economy working. It utterly failed in Europe because QE became an arbitrage game for the market, while austerity enforced Euro rules ensured it failed across the continent. Doing “”Whatever it Takes” is not a policy – it became a phrase to cover bureaucratic inertia!

Other blogs note the ECB can’t cut rates because they are cut already. They can’t buy more Govt bonds because Italy is a hair’s breath away from Junk and German isn’t issuing enough bonds, so the quotas are full. Its caught and stopped.

I ask again.. why should I buy European bonds?

FINAL QUESTION – Any readers or readers with offices in Sydney? Need a favour, please drop me an email!

end
BREXIT/UK
Another dramatic defeat for Theresa May as MP’s back a measure to block any “no deal” on Brexit
(courtesy zerohedge)

In Another Dramatic Defeat For May, MPs Back Measure To Block “No Deal” Brexit

In another stunning defeat for Theresa May and her senior cabinet, MPs on Tuesday backed a measure intended to thwart the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit by attaching an amendment to a crucial Finance Bill that will effectively force the UK government to shut down if Article 50 isn’t suspended or Parliament doesn’t explicitly vote to approve a ‘no deal’ exit.

The so-called “Cooper amendment” to the finance bill was tabled by Labour’s Yvette Cooper and had become the focus of Brexit related drama since Parliament returned from its Christmas break this week. The vote passed 303-296 with the help of 20 Tory rebels.

May

Cable has been weakening all day (though it didn’t react much to the  vote).

GBP

Meanwhile, three Labour MPs also broke ranks to vote with the government.

Faisal Islam

@faisalislam

This is the start of constitutional trench warfare where Parliament will try to assert its power over the executive to prevent No Deal – highly significant. As is the open expression that UK not ready for No Deal from likes of Letwin and Boles.

Faisal Islam

@faisalislam

Twenty Tory rebels voting against Government: Including Sir Michael Fallon… Greening, Gyimah, Soames, Vaizey, Letwin, Boles, pic.twitter.com/dmu4sSPCZO

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

In the wake of May’s latest defeat, her government has stood by its rhetoric, with Treasury Minister Robert Jenrick saying the “simple truth” remained that the UK would leave the EU on 29 March. All the amendment would do, he told MPs, would be to make the UK “somewhat less prepared” for Brexit.

Sir Oliver Letwin, the former Tory minister who backed the amendment, said “the majority tonight that is expressed in this house will sustain itself. We will not allow a no-deal exit to occur at the end of March,” the Guardian reported.

According to the BBC, the defeat comes a day after senior ministers spoke out about the risks associated with a ‘no deal’ Brexit. Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd said the public would adopt a “dim view” of the government if it allowed Brexit to proceed without a deal, adding that it could pose a threat to public safety.

Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn applauded Cooper for her efforts and heralded the vote as an important step toward preventing a no-deal Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn

@jeremycorbyn

This vote is an important step to prevent a no deal Brexit.

It shows that there is no majority in Parliament, the Cabinet or the country for crashing out of the EU without an agreement. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46803112?ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter 

Breaking News image

Ministers defeated over no-deal Brexit plans

MPs back measures designed to thwart preparations for the UK leaving the EU without a deal.

bbc.co.uk

May’s government says it’s still planning to hold a ‘meaningful vote’ on May’s Brexit deal next week – a vote that looks likely to fail as May has failed to secure more concessions from the EU. Going forward, the vote will make it more difficult for May to whip up votes by effectively eliminating “no deal” as a threat that May can leverage to win over votes.

A spokeswoman for May’s government said the passage of the amendment “does not change the fact” that the UK will be leaving the EU on March 29, and that “we will work with Parliament to make sure the tax system works smoothly in all Brexit scenarios”.

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Erdogan promises Trump that he will not slaughter the Syrian Kurds but that pledge looks empty. In order to protect themselves, the Kurds will join with the Syrians to protect themselves against the Turkish onslaught once the uSA leaves

( last night//courtesy zerohedge)

 

Erdogan Promised Trump Turks Won’t Slaughter Kurds; Proposes New “Stabilization Force”

Speaking to CNBC on Monday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sought to reassure the public that Turkey’s President Erdogan has made a personal commitment to President Trump that the Turks won’t slaughter the Kurds as US forces draw down in Syria.

Asked about Erdogan’s trustworthiness not to turn on the US-backed Kurds in Syria, Pompeo made this dubious point: “Erdogan made a commitment to President Trump... that the Turks would continue to the counter ISIS campaign after our departure, and that the Turks would ensure that the folks that we’d fought with — that assisted us in the counter ISIS campaign — would be protected,” according to CNBC. Pompeo explained further that John Bolton is going to speak with Turkey during his visit there on how to put that promise into operation.

Cartoon via ShiaPac.orgIf

having to elicit simple assurances that Erdogan — who was years ago definitively established as among state sponsors of ISIS in order slaughter the Kurds and attempt regime change in Damascus — will obey the United States and refrain from slaughtering the Kurds isn’t absurd enough, The New York Timesalso on Monday gave Erdogan lengthy editorial space to assure the world that “Turkey Has a Plan to Restore Peace in Syria” in what seems an attempt at well-timed propaganda.

Erdogan asserts, “President Trump made the right call to withdraw from Syria,” and while claiming Turkey’s top priority is to fight Islamic State terrorists, ensuring they don’t regroup, he offers as a “first step” the creation of yet another Turkish-backed rebel group to fill the so-called power vacuum left by a future US withdrawal. But first Erdogan attempts to assure, “I would like to point out that we have no argument with the Syrian Kurds.”

However, we should point out that in the lead up to and during last year’s ‘Operation Olive Branch’ to take Afrin, Erdogan openly expressed his goal of radical demographic shift in northern Syria — or what’s long been a policy of ethnic cleansing targeting the Kurds  something which has become a reality anywhere pro-Turkish rebel forces have captured Syrian Kurdish enclaves.

But Erdogan emphasizes the “diversity” of his planned for “stabilization force”:

The first step is to create a stabilization force featuring fighters from all parts of Syrian society. Only a diverse body can serve all Syrian citizens and bring law and order to various parts of the country.

This makes the next part of Erdogan’s proposed Syrian “stabilization” plan all the more laughable considering the source. He promotes Turkish-backed “popularly elected councils,” which – he promises further – can be led by Kurdish community representatives:

Ensuring adequate political representation for all communities is another priority. Under Turkey’s watch, the Syrian territories that are under the control of the Y.P.G. or the so-called Islamic State will be governed by popularly elected councils. Individuals with no links to terrorist groups will be eligible to represent their communities in local governments.

Local councils in predominantly Kurdish parts of northern Syria will largely consist of the Kurdish community’s representatives whilst ensuring that all other groups enjoy fair political representation. Turkish officials with relevant experience will advise them on municipal affairs, education, health care and emergency services.

Crucially, Erdogan’s op-ed makes no mention whatsoever of the Syrian government or of Assad.

But this is where the Syrian Kurds are actually headedtowards making a deal with Assad which would provide Syrian Army protection to Kurdish enclaves in the face of the invading Turks. 

This truly local solution, fast taking shapewill occur without the United States or Turkey, and in affirmation of Syrian sovereignty.

So Erdogan’s latest NYT “plan” is but an another empty propaganda exercise meant to satisfy the dilemma Trump expressed directly last week: “We want to protect Kurds, but I don’t want to be in Syria forever. It’s sand. And it’s death,” the president said.

end

The Turkish lira falls after Erdogan refuses to meet Bolton.  It is obvious that Erdogan’s real plan is to wipe out the Kurds

(courtesy zerohedge)

Lira Slides After Erdogan Refuses To Meet Bolton For Blocking Syria Withdrawal

Turkish President Erdogan sent the lira sliding on Tuesday when he refused to meet with Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton during the latter’s trip to Turkey after Bolton successfully convinced Trump to hold off on withdrawing 2,000 US troops from Syria until it had received assurances from Turkey that the Turks wouldn’t attack US-backed Kurds in the region.

Bolton revealed the change in direction during a Sunday interview, ahead of a planned trip abroad where he will visit Turkey and Israel to discuss the terms of the US withdrawal.

Instead of meeting with Bolton, Erdogan used a prescheduled speech in parliament to criticize American proposals that the Kurdish group play a key role in Syria after the US withdraws, according to Bloomberg.

Erdogan

Turkey, Erdogan said, has already completed preparations for how it will combat the remnants of ISIS after the US withdraws and has already drawn up plans to neutralize “all terror threats,” Erdogan said Tuesday during a speech to members of his ruling AKP Party.

“We will very soon mobilize to eliminate terrorist organizations in Syria,” he said. “If there are other terrorists who would attempt to intervene in our intervention then it is our duty to eliminate them as well,” Erdogan added in a likely reference to Kurdish fighters on Turkey’s border, whom Erdogan views as a threat because of their affiliation with Kurdish separatist groups within Turkey.

The news sent the lira lower amid renewed tensions between the US and Turkey following hopes that the feuding NATO members might finally be setting aside their differences.

Turkey

Turkey has reportedly been planning an attack on the US-backed YPG, one of the key proxy groups for the US. Henrik Gullerg, a strategist at Nomura, said Erdogan’s decision to snub Bolton is a sign that “he must be very annoyed” at the US.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

When the 1MDB loan was going sour, Razak sought the help from China

(courtesy zerohedge/Wall Street Journal)

 

Explosive WSJ Report Exposes China’s Role In 1MDB Scandal

In the waning months of his administration, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak was desperate to stave off the bankruptcy of1MDB, the sovereign wealth fund that Razak and members of his inner circle looted (allegedly with the help of Goldman Sachs). So, he turned to an unlikely source of funding to bail out the fund – signing away rights to some of his country’s most valuable resources in the process.

China

The source? China. Employing financier Jho Low as an intermediary, Razak worked out an arrangement with the Chinese government whereby Razak’s government would grant state-owned Chinese enterprises lucrative stakes in Malaysian railway and pipelines projects in exchange for $34 billion – more than enough to clear the shortfall in 1MDB, and then some.

By 2016, Mr. Najib was in a bind because the fund had borrowed $13 billion it couldn’t repay. He turned to Jho Low—a Malaysian financier the U.S. Justice Department has alleged was the mastermind of a multibillion-dollar theft of 1MDB funds—to negotiate with China to resolve the crisis, according to current and former Malaysian officials.

According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Razak offered the Chinese an invaluable cherry on top of the sweetheart deal. Permission to dock Chinese Navy ships in two Malaysian ports – a “significant concession” that would push Malaysia undeniably into the orbit of Beijing.

Mr. Najib also embarked on secret talks with China’s leadership to let Chinese navy ships dock at two Malaysian ports, say two people familiar with the discussions. Such permission would have been a significant concession to Beijing, which seeks greater influence across contested waters of the South China Sea, but it didn’t come to pass.

The projects – and the port permissions – were swiftly incorporated into China’s ambitious “One Belt, One Road” initiative – a series of infrastructure projects across Europe, Asia and Africa to fill in gaps in railway and pipeline infrastructure (and help cement China’s influence across the developing world).

The WSJ, which cited documents and minutes from meetings between Malaysian and Chinese officials in its report, described the projects as one of the most egregious examples of what China’s critics have derided as “debt trap diplomacy” – extending credit to desperate countries in exchange for rights to key strategic resources that can be applied to BRI.

China

US national security officials who spoke with WSJ on the condition of anonymity described the Malaysia deal as one of China’s most ambitious attempts to leverage state-backed financing to cement its geostrategic advantage.

A Journal examination of the China-Malaysia projects, based on documents and interviews with current and former Malaysian officials, offers one of the most detailed accounts to date of the political forces at work behind China’s Belt and Road program, a signature initiative of building ports, railways, roads and pipelines in some 70 countries to generate trade and business for Chinese companies.

U.S. officials say China is using the program to increase its sway over developing nations and trap them in debt while advancing its military aims. Several countries, including Pakistan and the Maldives, have been reviewing One Belt, One Road projects amid allegations some deals unfairly advanced Beijing’s interests.

What’s more, minutes from the meetings revealed that China and Razak tried to cover up the prime minister’s intentions, saying the deals must be portrayed as “market-driven” instead of “political” in nature.

The minutes also revealed that the projects were a fount of corruption, with valuations of the deals priced at above-market rates so that some of the money could be diverted for “other needs.”

By 2017, the money had already started flowing through China’s Export-Import Bank and into the coffers of 1MDB.

Documents reviewed by the Journal show Malaysian officials suggested that some of the infrastructure projects be financed at above-market values, generating excess cash for other needs. Investigators from the current Malaysian government, which replaced Mr. Najib’s last year, believe some of the money helped Mr. Najib finance his political activities and cover maturing debts of 1MDB, a fund he set up in 2009 to finance local development.

Mr. Najib was aware of the 2016 Malaysian-Chinese meetings, according to people familiar with them. Asked about them, the former prime minister issued a statement saying the rail project would have brought tens of thousands of jobs to Malaysia and stating that under his leadership, the country experienced nine years of continuous economic growth.

[…]

A month later, the Malaysians proposed that Chinese state companies instead make payments that would “indirectly be used to repay 1MDB debt,” according to meeting minutes.

Notes of a discussion on Sept. 22, 2016, say the sides agreed to move ahead with the infrastructure deals even though “they may not have strong project financials.”

Participants needn’t “waste time studying the actual project financials to see if they can sustain the debt etc.,” because Malaysia’s government backed the deals for strategic reasons, the documents say.

Notes from that meeting said Malaysia was working to enhance bilateral ties, citing support Mr. Najib voiced for China’s position in the South China Sea during a regional summit in Laos.

Two months later, Mr. Najib went to Beijing and signed the deals. Together with other projects, they made Malaysia the second-biggest recipient of One Belt, One Road funding after Pakistan.

Money was flowing by the middle of 2017 as the Export-Import Bank of China issued the first loans. By fall the bank had paid out 80% of the $2.5 billion pledged to state-owned China Petroleum Pipeline Bureau to build the pipeline, although little work had been done, according to Malaysian officials.

The story shed some light on one of the enduring mysteries of the 1DB scandal: how Low has managed to evade US and Malaysian prosecutors. Per WSJ, he has been hiding out in China under Beijing’s protection.

In another interesting detail, WSJ reportedly confirmed that the Chinese government had ordered increased surveillance of WSJ’s reporters in Hong Kong who were working on the story.

At a meeting the next day, Sun Lijun, then head of China’s domestic-security force, confirmed that China’s government was surveilling the Journal in Hong Kong at Malaysia’s request, including “full scale residence/office/device tapping, computer/phone/web data retrieval, and full operational surveillance,” according to a Malaysian summary of that meeting.

China worked hard on behalf of Razak during his reelection campaign. But it wasn’t enough, and instead former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed, who is in his 90s, prevailed. He is now struggling to renegotiate Razak’s deals with the Chinese. Meanwhile, Razak is facing corruption charges and will likely head to trial later this year. And Mahathir is struggling to renegotiate some of his predecessors deals.

In summary, one of the biggest financial frauds in Asian history was facilitated with the cooperation of the Chinese Communist Party and Goldman Sachs.

end

 

 

7  OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela

A supreme court judge flees Venezuela to the USA and pours his heart about on the heart wrenching economy inside his country

(courtesy zerohedge)

Venezuela Supreme Court Judge Flees To US, Spills Secrets Of Maduro’s Hold On Power

The Venezuelan government “has only brought hunger, misery and destruction to the country” as a “failed state” — admitted a Venezuelan Supreme Court justice and longtime government loyalist who is now making headlines by his shocking and unprecedented defection to the United States. “I’ve decided to leave Venezuela to disavow the government of Nicolas Maduro,” the former powerful judge, Christian Zerpa, told reporters. “I believe Maduro does not deserve a second chance because the election he supposedly won was not free and competitive.”

Considering such a powerful and high level former regime loyalist has just safely fled to Florida with his family, could gaping fissures now surface within the Caracas government and begin to grow, resulting in more defections to come?  

Now defected Venezuelan Supreme Court justice Christian ZerpaZerpa told reporters while speaking from Florida on Sunday that he could no longer stomach Venezuela’s highest court being a mere appendage of Maduro’s ruling inner circle, complaining that since 2015 only handpicked insider loyalists were appointed to the bench. As Maduro is set to enter his second, six-year term in an oath of office ceremony on Thursday, Zerpa cited that “he didn’t want to play a role legitimizing Maduro’s rule when the Supreme Court swears him in,” according to the AP.

“We are in the presence of an autocracy that has condemned to death any opposition to this particular vision of power,” Zerpa told a Miami-based news broadcast. Western leaders and international rights organizations have condemned the latest presidential election, noting important opposition leaders and parties were banned, or in some cases boycotted the election knowing they would be pressured or forced out.

Zerpa’s defection has been confirmed by Venezuelan officials and official media , which have started an apparent smear campaign claiming the supreme court justice was facing multiple sexual harassment charges by women he worked with. He now says he’s ready to work with US investigators into corruption and human rights inquiries in Venezuela, even after being under sanction by Canada, but not yet by the United States.

In early media statements made after fleeing his home country, Zerpa described abuses ranging from receiving directives from first lady Cilia Flores on how to rule in cases that are politically connected, to finding legal means and creating loopholes in order to block opposition representatives from taking key swing vote seats in Congress.

One bombshell confession made by Zerpa related to his role on the court, involves his personally taking steps to ensure Maduro maintained total control of Venezuelan congress. The AP report describes this as follows:

As a newly installed justice, he recounted being summoned to the court and told to sign off on a key ruling without first reviewing its details. It disqualified three elected representatives of Amazonas state from taking their seats in congress following the opposition’s sweep of legislative elections in 2015.

The outcome prevented the opposition from amassing a two-third super majority that would have severely curtailed Maduro’s power.

He further related he had flee because he would be jailed for coming forward, and is now apologizing to the public for “propping up” the Maduro government.

He apologized for propping up Maduro’s government, saying that he feared being jailed as a dissident where his life would be put at risk.

Meanwhile, other dissenters have recently fled the country amidst a collapsed economy, runaway inflation, and an extreme food and medicine shortage after two decades of socialist rule. One such opposition lawmaker, Julio Borges, who previously fled the country fearing for his life, urged Latin American leaders on Monday to intensify pressure on Maduro, saying, “The inhuman arrogance of this dictatorship led by Nicolas Maduro personally challenges the heads of state of the region.”

He added further in a blistering critique of Maduro personally: “It’s not fair that a whole country should perish to satisfy one man’s lust for power.”

Nicolas Maduro begins another 6-year term on Thursday, via Venezuelan Presidency/AFPIndeed the situation continues to be dire as the socialist country suffers from a perfect storm of starvation, disease, a lack of healthcare and extreme violence, with tragic reports of children dying from hepatitis and malaria.

“There is a human catastrophe in Venezuela. There is a resurgence of illnesses that were eradicated decades ago. Hundreds have died from measles and diphtheria. Last year, more than 400,000 Venezuelans presented malaria symptoms. Up to now, there are over 10,000 sick people from tuberculosis,” said Caracas mayor and former political prisoner Antonio Ledezma, who founded the opposition party, Fearless People’s Alliance. He added provocatively of the dire medicine and healthcare situation amidst a collapsed system: “People have been doomed to death. More than 55,000 cancer patients don’t have access to chemotherapy. Every three hours a woman dies due to breast cancer.”

As the country continues its downward spiral, certainly to be exacerbated by at least another six years of Maduro’s failed policies, Zerpa’s high level defection is likely the start of more to come.

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1461 DOWN .0018 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108;64  UP 0.140 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…DEADLY TO OUR YEN SHORTERS

GBP/USA 1.2778     DOWN    0.0012  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3280 DOWN .0016 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 16 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1461/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED  DOWN 6.63 POINTS OR 0.26% 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 38.75 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.68%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED UP 165.97 POINTS OR 0.82% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 38.75 POINTS OR 0.15% 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.63 PTS OR 0.26%

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.68%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 165.97 POINTS OR 0.82% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1283.60

silver:$15.64

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.70% !!! UP 4 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/DEADLY

The 30 yr bond yield 2.98 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 95.73 UP 7 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.82% UP 0    in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.51% UP 1   IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.95 UP 5     POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 137 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.23%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.71% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1444 DOWN   .0035 or 35 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 108.57 DOWN  0.054 OR 5 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2723 DOWN .0061( POUND DOWN 61  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 12 basis points to 1.3309

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.8532-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8538(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4806

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.01%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.70 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.99 UP 2  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.94 UP 27 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 50.72 OR 0.74%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 56.17 POINTS OR 0.52%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 54.10 POINTS OR 1.15%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 71.00 POINTS OR 0.81%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 46.87 POINTS OR 0.25%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 49.43 12:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 58.60 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.79  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.07 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 07 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.4806 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.23 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :49.75

 

BRENT :  58.60

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.73%…

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.01%/

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1442 ( down 37 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.79 UP 0.168 (YEN DOWN 17 BASIS POINTS/..deadly to yen shorters

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.93 up  26 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2718 down 67 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4815

the Russian rouble:  66.96 DOWN .28 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 28 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3275 UP 22 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8532  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8528 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.23%

 

The Dow closed UP 258.10 POINTS OR 1.89%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 73.53 POINTS OR 1.08%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.40 CLOSED DOWN 1.00 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.797%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/

 

FROM 2.803

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Stocks Extend Gains Even As Market Prices Out Dovish Fed

 

Terrible news from LG and Samsung and dismal German economic data… The world according to markets in 2019…

..

Chinese stocks flatlined (almost oddly) overnight…

 

European stocks closed higher, erasing yesterday’s losses. German industrial production collapsed… so BTFD – means The ECB won’t tighten as aggressively…

 

Today’s market from the US open to the European close summarized succinctly:

Embedded video

Rudolf E. Havenstein@RudyHavenstein

Intraday one-minute $SPX chart

It was high volume spikes into the ramp pre-market as algos grabbed every headline and ran with it…

 

Trannies and Small Caps outperformed on the day as markets were bid back off red as Europe closed…

 

Banks were hit from the open…

With the biggest banks dumped…

 

Tech stocks were also sold from their opening high but quickly rebounded after turning red…

 

HY Bonds extended their recent surge…

 

The Treasury complex was offered today with the short-end notably underperforming…

 

30Y Yields briefly pushed up to tag 3.00%, but barely moved despite the exuberant equity performance…NOTE that 30Y yields remain lower on the year (despite soaring stocks)

 

But as the short-end yields jumped, the yield curve flattened dramatically…2s30s back to 2-week lows…

 

The Dollar managed gains overnight and held on to them during the day…

 

Cable weakened notably all day ahead of a key vote (which the govt lost)…

 

Mixed day in cryptos with Litecoin and Bitcoin higher…Ethereum underperforming

 

Still wonder who’s right?

 

WTI outperformed in the commodity space….

 

But was unable to break $50 again…

 

Gold slid back to unchanged on the year in Yuan terms…

 

Finally, we note that once again the market’s expectations for The Fed this year shifted hawkishly (only 4bps of rate-cuts now expected) – dramatically less than the 26bps cut priced in on Jan 3rd…

Who will be right?

 

END

market trading/

Mid morning trading

US Stocks Are Tumbling, Banks Battered

“Sell the news” on China trade talks? An ugly JOLTS print? Ginsburg out for a 2nd day? Or just someone pulled the algos’ plug?

Banks stocks have been dumped since the open…

Maybe, just maybe, nothing has changed from pre-Xmas Eve and the short squeeze is now out of ammo?

After the biggest two-day short squeeze since Brexit, “Most Shorted” stocks are sinking again…

High yield bonds are rolling over after two days of epic squeeze…

 

Are stocks about to catch down to Bonds and USD…

 

 

market data/

Everywhere we look, we witness data that suggests the USA economy and for that matter, the global economy has been halted in its tracks:  today job opening tumbles as does hires.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Job Openings, Hires, Quits All Tumble As Labor Market Hits Unexpected Air Pocket

After the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported record prints for virtually every notable labor market series in the late summer, there has been a notable slowdown in the labor market, and according to the BLS, after an upward revision in the October job openings from 7.079MM to 7,131MM, in November this number tumbled by 243K to 6.688 million, the lowest number since last June.

Despite the decline in job openings, this will still be the 9th consecutive month in which there were more job openings then unemployed workers: considering that according to the payrolls report there were 6,294MM unemployed workers in December, there is now just under 600K more job openings than unemployed workers currently, (how accurate, or politically-biased the BLS data is, is another matter entirely).

In other words, in an economy in which there was a perfect match between worker skills and employer needs, there would be zero unemployed people at this moment (of course, that is not the case.)

According to the BLS, the number of job openings decreased for total private (-237,000) and was little changed for government. Job openings increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+40,000). The job openings level decreased in a number of industries, with the largest decreases in other services (-66,000) and construction (-45,000). Job openings fell in the West region

Adding to the unexpectedly downbeat labor picture, as job openings tumbled, the number of total hires also slumped, sliding by 218K November, and printing at 5.710 million. Hires fell for total private (-236,000) and was little changed for government. Hires increased in federal government (+8,000) but decreased in professional and business services (-167,000). The number of hires decreased in the South region. According to the historical correlation between the number of hires and the 12 month cumulative job change (per the Establishment Survey), the pace of hiring right now is precisely where it should be relative to the cumulative change in hiring.

In light of the softest JOLTS report in many months, recall what we said in our December discussion of the JOLTS report:

while both job openings and hires showed continued strength in the labor market, by one metric the job market may have peaked: the so-called “take this jobs and shove it” indicator – which shows worker confidence that they can leave their current job and find a better paying job elsewhere – dipped for a second consecutive month, declining by 50K in October, after dropping 84K in September from an all time high of 3.648 million, suggesting the workers on the margin are somewhat less reluctant to quit their jobs and look elsewhere.

Well, this trend persisted in November, when the number of Quits declined by 112K, its third monthly drop in a row, the longest such stretch since late 2014, and was down to just 3.407 million, the lowest number of people quitting their jobs since April. The quits level edged down for total private (-122,000) and was little changed for government. Quits fell in professional and business services (-84,000) and in accommodation and food services (-62,000).  This confirms that there has been a notable weakening in the labor market as increasingly fewer workers are confident they can find better employment terms elsewhere, or said otherwise, “the grass isn’t greener” this time.

Putting all this in in context

  • Job openings have increased since a low in July 2009. They returned to the prerecession level in March 2014 and surpassed the prerecession peak in August 2014. There were 6.9 million open jobs on the last business day of November 2018.
  • Hires have increased since a low in June 2009 and have surpassed prerecession levels. In November 2018, there were 5.7 million hires.
  • Quits have increased since a low in September 2009 and have surpassed prerecession levels. In November 2018, there were 3.4 million quits.
  • For most of the JOLTS history, the number of hires (measured throughout the month) has exceeded the number of job openings (measured only on the last business day of the month). Since January 2015, however, this relationship has reversed with job openings outnumbering hires in most months.
  • At the end of the most recent recession in June 2009, there were 1.2 million more hires throughout the month than there were job openings on the last business day of the month. In November 2018, there were 1.2 million fewer hires than job openings.

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

The continuing saga of PG and E, These guys want to pass off the cost of the fires onto the citizens of California

(courtesy zerohedge)

California Isn’t Buying PG&E Bankruptcy Threats

PG&E shares tumbled another 20% on Monday as the embattled utility, which is potentially facing billions of dollars in fines stemming from the deadliest wildfires in the state’s history (while simultaneously struggling to settle claims related to a round of fires that decimated California’s wine country in 2017), is facing pushback and skepticism from lawmakers following reports last week that it could file for bankruptcy as soon as next month.

According to Bloomberg, California lawmakers, who had been expected to bail out the utility, are questioning the political prudence of caving to the utilities bankruptcy threats.

It’s widely suspected that the threat of a bankruptcy filing would force the California legislature to pass a law allowing PG&E to pass costs related to the fires on to its customers – an outcome that would risk enraging Californians who suspect that the utility’s equipment contributed to starting the deadly Camp and Woolsey Fires.

PGWE

As investigators press ahead with their probe into what caused the deadly fires, the issue of what should be done to hold PG&E accountable for any role in the fires could be one of the first major issues facing California’s newly inaugurated governor, Gavin Newsom, who was sworn into office on Monday.

As BBG reported, even if PG&E does follow through with its bankruptcy threats, they might not be enough to pressure lawmakersinto action – which could lead to serious risks for PG&E shareholders.

A potential bankruptcy may be enough to force the hand of state legislators who are mulling a potential bailout for the embattled utility. They’ll have to decide whether to allow the company to pass some of the costs of the fire through to taxpayers, Katie Bays and Clayton Allen, analysts at Height Securities LLC, said in a note on Monday.

Bankruptcy “should be considered a credible risk by shareholders,” they said. “While we think that sufficient support for such a bill could eventually be rallied, exploitive tactics and a reticence toward change will not improve” the company’s profile.

PG&E doesn’t “comment on market rumor or speculation,” spokeswoman Lynsey Paulo said in an email Monday.

Since the fires, PG&E’s shares have shed fully half of their value, while yields on its bonds have skyrocketed.

But for what it’s worth, the utility claims it’s “working diligently” to figure out what it might owe due to the wildfires. There has also been speculation that it could sell its oil and gas unit to pay off fines in excess of its insurance coverage, as well as dozens of lawsuits that are currently pending.

In a statement late Friday, PG&E said it’s “working diligently to assess the company’s potential liabilities as a result of the wildfires and the options for addressing those liabilities. We recognize the need to balance the interests of many stakeholders while maintaining safe, reliable, and affordable services for our customers, which is always our top priority.”

And with the California legislature reconvening on Monday, some lawmakers are warning that they won’t allow PG&E to use the bankruptcy threat as leverage like it has done in the past.

The California legislature is scheduled to reconvene today after its holiday break. State Senator Jerry Hill, an outspoken PG&E critic, said the utility previously raised bankruptcy as leverage when seeking state assistance in paying its liabilities from wildfires in 2017. The company could be engaged in similar brinkmanship now, he said.

“You can’t trust what they say,” said Hill, who represents San Bruno, where a PG&E gas pipeline exploded in 2010, killing eight. “Last year, they were able to fool the legislature with the narrative of bankruptcy or bailout, and the legislature gave them a bailout.”

Still, the fact that PG&E is the largest utility in California and the country gives it a fair amount of leverage. Analysts warned that the company could run out of money before the end of the year…which could create serious problems not just for PG&E, but for California consumers

PG&E “could face a liquidity crisis by mid-to-late ’19,” Greg Gordon, an analyst at Evercore ISI, said in a research note Monday.

But in one potential workaround, the state’s utility commissioner is evaluating a possible breakup of the utility, as well as a state takeover.

California Public Utilities Commission chief Michael Picker said that same month that he couldn’t imagine allowing the state’s largest utility to go into bankruptcy. His agency later began a formal process to evaluate whether to break up or take over PG&E’s Pacific Gas and Electric utility.

Earlier on Friday, PG&E said in a statement that it’s already weighing changes to both its board and how its businesses are structured. One option under consideration: Selling its natural gas business after a bankruptcy filing, the people familiar with the matter said. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kit Konolige said.

But even a state takeover wouldn’t necessarily prevent a rerun of the catastrophic fires, or other serious lapses in oversight.

“Breaking it up or the state running the company, those are all incredibly complicated proposals that just have no indication that they would be successful, certainly not anytime soon,” he said. “The assumption that whatever you put in place of PG&E would be better — that’s really unproven.”

But as legislators debate exactly what should be done regarding PG&E, one thing is for sure: Expect every new detail that emerges to have an impact on PG&E’s battered shares.

 

end

Although the Sears team want to extend this, it sure looks like the morgue for them.  The judge is being asked to liquidate

(courtesy zerohedge)

Game Over: Sears Will Ask Judge To Liquidate After Lampert Bid Fails

Update: Sears isn’t going quietly – taking to social media to reassure the public that it’s still around, and then deleting the tweets?

Via Reuters: 

As the company and its bankruptcy advisers prepare for a possible liquidation, the retailer has taken to social media to reassure the public that it is still around.

We are down, but not out… – SMT,” Sears, via its official Twitter account (@Sears), said in reply to one of the many posts Monday morning about the 126-year-old company potentially going out of business.

Another Twitter user opined that the retailer “had a good run I would say.” Sears replied: “We would say that as well, but we are Marathon Runners, and we are still running. We may be slowing down, but we are not out of the race just yet. Don’t count us completely out. Happy Shopping! -SMT”

It looks like someone got a tap on the shoulder at the “SMT” (Social Media Team), as those tweets are now gone from the @Sears account timeline.

***

Retail giant Sears will ask a US bankruptcy judge if it can proceed with liquidating its assets after a last-minute bid by Chairman Eddie Lampert failed, reports Reuters. A liquidation would affect approximately 68,000 employees and 425 stores.

The 126-year-old department store rejected Lampert’s $4.6 billion package backed by Bank of America, Citigroup and the Royal Bank of Canada. The three institutions offered to provide a $950 million basset-backed loan and $350 million revolving line of credit to back Lampert’s bid.

As we noted on SundayLampert’s financing package had gaps, and the plan would not have provided enough cash to cover bankruptcy-related costs. It also undervalued inventory and other assets compared to what liquidators were promising to pay. Part of Lampert’s bid relied on the forgiveness of $1.3 billion of Sears debt held by his hedge fund, ESL Investments Inc.

The retailer started laying the groundwork for a liquidation after meetings Friday in which its advisers weighed the merits of a $4.4 billion bid by Lampert’s hedge fund to buy Sears as a going concern, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. If the 125-year-old retailer does die in bankruptcy — like Toys “R” Us in 2018, and Borders Group Inc. in 2011 — it would mark the largest fatality yet in the retail apocalypse prompted by a shift to online shopping. –Bloomberg

Unfortunately for Eddie, much of his bid relied on him assuming ownership of the reorganized business – however the validity of his debt has been called into question after several creditors challenged ESL, while no cash backstop was provided in case this fell through.

Sears closed about 140 stores back in October when it initially filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection with $11.34 billion in debt. The retailer also announced in November that it would close an additional 40 unprofitable stores by February 2019. It was the second largest bankruptcy ever, according to Bloomberg, following that of real estate firm Capmark Financial Group with $21 billion in liabilities. The Toys “R” Us bankruptcy ranks third at around $8 billion in debt.

According to Reuterslawyers for Lampert and ESL plan to present details of his offer to the judge and make their case for renewing efforts to save Sears.

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Robert Drain in the Southern District of New York, who is presiding over the case, could decide to give Lampert more time to improve on his bid, the sources said. A bankruptcy auction for Sears’ assets is not due until Jan. 14. –Reuters via Yahoo!

Will the judge keep Lampert’s bid alive?

SWAMP STORIES

This is getting interesting: The Russian lawyer who attended the Trump Tower meeting has been charged in a money laundering case

(courtesy zerohedge)

Russian Lawyer From Trump Tower Meeting Charged In Money Laundering Case

A Russian lawyer and Fusion GPS associate who attended the infamous Trump Tower meeting has been charged with obstructing justice by making a “misleading declaration” in a separate money laundering case, according to the Washington Post.

Natalia Veselnitskaya – a Trump-hating fan of the late John McCain – was initially denied entry into the United States, only to be allowed into the country by former Attorney General Loretta Lynch under “extraordinary circumstances” so she could represent Fusion GPS client Prevezon Holdings in a civil case brought by the US attorney’s office in Manhattan.

Prevezon is owned by Russian and Israeli businessman Denis Katsyv, who settled the case for $5.9 million in fines after he was busted in a $230 million embezzlement and money laundering scheme reportedly sanctioned by Russian Officials, in which large sums of money were stolen from the Russian government and invested in New York real estate. Some of the missing funds were traced to Prevezon.

The department had alleged in a civil complaint that a Russian criminal organization ran an elaborate tax refund scheme, stealing the identities of targeted companies and filing sham lawsuits to incur fake losses for refund purposes.

Those involved made about $230 million in tax refunds, prosecutors said, and filtered the money through shell companies and eventually into Prevezon, a Cyprus-based real estate corporation. Prevezon, prosecutors said, laundered the funds into real estate, including by investing in high end commercial property and luxury apartments in Manhattan. –Washington Post

The alleged fraud was uncovered by attorneys hired by the victim firms to investigate, one of whom was deceased Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, who died in custody.

Veselnitskaya was also a central figure in the Trump Tower meeting arranged by Fusion GPS associate Rob Goldstone – who admits “it appeared to me to have been a bait and switch of somebody who appeared to be lobbying for what I now understood to be the Magnitsky act,” which sanctions Russian officials thought to be involved in the Magnitsky death.

Of note, McCain was a key force behind the Magnitsky act:

In 2010, I traveled to Washington and told Sergei Magnitsky’s story to Senators Benjamin Cardin and John McCain. They were both shocked and appalled and proposed a new piece of legislation called The Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act. This would freeze assets and ban visas for those who killed Sergei as well as other Russians involved in serious human rights abuse. –The Atlantic

Meanwhile, hours before Veselnitskaya attended the Trump Tower meeting to lobby Trump Jr. about the Magnitsky act, she met with Fusion GPS co-founder Glenn Simpson.

In late November of 2017, The Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross reported that heavily redacted Fusion GPS bank records reveal DNC law firm Perkins Coie paid Fusion a total of $1,024,408 in 2016 for opposition research on then-candidate Donald Trump – including the 34-page dossier.

Ross also reported that law firm Baker Hostelter paid Fusion $523,651 between March and October 2016 on behalf of a company owned by Katsyvto research Bill Browder, a London banker who helped push through the Magnitsky Act.

Why does it always seem to come back to Fusion GPS?

end

More on the Manafort lies to Mueller:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Manafort’s Lawyers Accidentally Reveal He Lied To Mueller About Kremlin-Linked Offer

In an embarrassing twist to the ongoing Paul Manafort legal saga, Manafort’s attorneys have inadvertently revealed some of the lies that Paul Manafort allegedly told Special Counsel Robert Mueller, according to a reporter from the Guardian.

Manafort

Because they failed to redact their filings, Manafort’s attorneys revealed that their client “lied about sharing polling data with Konstantin Kilimnik”, a former purportedly Kremlin-connected aide to Manafort who has been accused of participating in Manafort’s efforts to conceal his income from his consulting work for former Ukrainian strongman Viktor Yanukovich.

Jon Swaine

@jonswaine

🚨 NEW: Paul Manafort’s attorneys failed to properly redact their filing. They reveal that Mueller alleges Manafort “lied about sharing polling data with Mr. Kilimnik related to the 2016 presidential campaign”. Konstantin Kilimnik has alleged ties to Russian intelligence. 🚨

The filings also revealed that Manafort “was in contact with a third party” who had asked permission to drop Manafort’s name during a meeting with the president.

Jon Swaine

@jonswaine

Manafort attorneys also accidentally reveal via failed redaction that Mueller says Manafort was in contact with “a third-party asking permission to use Mr. Manafort’s name as an introduction in the event the third-party met the President.”

In response to the Guardian reporter’s tweets, another twitter user shared the text from the filing.

southpaw@nycsouthpaw

You can copy the black highlighted “redactions” in the Manafort team’s filing, paste it somewhere else, and see what it says. Here’s the first one. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/5677512/Manafort-20190108-Dc.pdf 

View image on Twitter

southpaw@nycsouthpaw

The sentence @jonswaine reported is in the second redaction. pic.twitter.com/IjH3b9T27A

View image on Twitter

In the same filing, Manafort’s lawyers also revealed that Mueller suspected Manafort of lying about authorizing the “third party” to communicate with administration officials on his behalf. Manafort had reportedly told Mueller that he didn’t have any direct or indirect communications with the administration.

Jon Swaine

@jonswaine

In new court filing, attorneys for Paul Manafort seem to confirm he was in contact with members of the Trump administration after they took office. They deny Mueller’s allegations of wide-ranging lying.

The mistake was made when redacting the document: Reporters were able to access the blacked-out text by copy it from under the redactions.

David Martosko

@dmartosko

When Paul Manafort’s lawyers submitted their latest pleading in federal court, they *tried* to redact some portions. They failed. You can copy the text right from underneath the black boxes. *facepalm* https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/5677512/Manafort-20190108-Dc.pdf 

In the filing, Manafort’s lawyers also revealed that he was suffering from depression and anxiety and is at times confined to a wheelchair because of gout. The filing also contained their response to allegations that Manafort lied to the special counsel, with his lawyers arguing that Manafort’s “lies” were really just cases of mistaken or muddled memory

 

end.

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

@realDonaldTrump: I am pleased to inform you that I will Address the Nation on the Humanitarian and National Security crisis on our Southern Border. Tuesday night at 9:00 P.M. Eastern.

 

What, precisely, do Democrats want to impeach Trump for?

Green’s articles seek to remove Trump for “sowing discord among the people of the United States” with his comments on Charlottesville, transgender troops, and Muslim immigration. (In an earlier version, Green also sought to impeach Trump for statements about Rep. Frederica Wilson and NFL players who do not stand for the national anthem.) Cohen’s articles rehashed much of Sherman’s obstruction allegation while adding a charge that Trump violated the Constitution’s emoluments clause, plus articles seeking to remove Trump for tweeting about federal judges and calling some press organizations “fake news.”… Another Cohen article focused on Trump’s tweets about judges, which the resolution characterized as “activities that undermine the independence of the federal judiciary,” and statements about the press and “fake news,” which the articles said “undermine the freedom of the press guaranteed by the First Amendment.”…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/what-precisely-do-democrats-want-to-impeach-trump-for?platform=hootsuite

Alabama attorney general asks feds to investigate 2017 election

The New York Times reported on Monday that Democratic operatives had sought to undermine Moore by creating a Facebook page claiming that his supporters wanted to ban alcohol in the state.  The newspaper has previously reported that Democrats created a separate “false flag” Facebook page that portrayed Moore as supported by Russian bot accounts…  https://reut.rs/2TxJrvB

END

I WILL SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY
H
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