JAN 9/GOLD AND SILVER RISE ON DOVISH FED (DOVISH SPEECHES/DOVISH FOMC): GOLD RISES $6.00 TO $1291.00/SILVER/ RISES 4 CENTS TO $15.70/REUTERS REPORTS THAT HUAWEI CORPORATION HAS HUGE TIES TO IRAN: THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MENG/CHINA WILL NOT BE HAPPY IF SHE IS IMPRISONED/FRANCE BASICALLY DECLARES MARSHALL LAW /YELLOW JACKETS DEEPLY ANGERED BY THIS/GERMAN AUTHORITIES HAVE 900 CLIENTS WHO EVADED GERMAN INCOME TAX WITH THE HELP OF DEUTSCHE BANK AS INDICATED ON THE PANAMA PAPERS/THE DONALD WALKS OUT ON CHUCK AND NANCY AS THEY GET NOWHERE ON THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AND THE WALL/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1291.00 UP $6.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $15.70 UP 4 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1293.50

 

silver: $15.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

JANUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 46 NOTICE(S) FOR 4600 OZ (0.1430 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  444 NOTICES FOR 44400 OZ  (1.3810 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JANUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

22 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  110,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 320 for 1,600,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $3975:  UP 18

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3967  UP 12 

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 11/46

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,283.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/08/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 01/10/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
624 C MERRILL 4
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 C JP MORGAN 11
737 C ADVANTAGE 22 11
800 C RCG 21 12
905 C ADM 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 46 46
MONTH TO DATE: 444

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN HUGE SIZED  4844 CONTRACTS FROM 181,546 UP TO 186,506 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S  4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

2475 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2475 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2475 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2475 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.89 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

 21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

AND NOW: INITIALLY 5.170 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY: 17,264 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 17,264 CONTRACTS) OR 86.320 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2877 CONTRACTS OR 14.388 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  86.320 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 12.32% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           86.320    MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4844 DESPITE THE 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2475 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED: 7319 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2475 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 4844 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 4 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.66 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .896 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 128% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 22 NOTICE(S) FOR 1200,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ  AND NOW JANUARY AT  5.170 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE 9011 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 455,232 WITH THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A FALL IN PRICE OF $3.70//YESTERDAY’S TRADING)

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 8444 CONTRACTS:

 

FEBRUARY HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 8444 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 455,232. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN TINY SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 567 CONTRACTS: 9011 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8444 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS: 567 CONTRACTS OR 56700 OZ = 1.76 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS VERY GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF  $3.70

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5365 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY : 53,823 CONTRACTS OR 5,382,300 OZ  OR 167.41TONNES (6 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8970 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 167.41 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 167.41/2550 x 100% TONNES = 6.56% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     167.41  TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 9011 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($3.70) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8444 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8444 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A TINY LOSS OF 567 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8444 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 9011 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 1.76 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS OF $3.70 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had: 46 notice(s) filed upon for 4600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP$6.00 TODAY 

TWO TRANSACTIONS:

I)A MINOR WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES AND THAT IS GENERALLY TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE AND STORAGE COSTS

II) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   799.18 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 799.18 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS  TODAY:

 

 

A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/

A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ (WITH SILVER UP AGAIN?//SLV IS A CROOKED ORGANIZATION)

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 4844 CONTRACTS from 181,662 UP TO 186,506  AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

2475 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2475 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 4844 CONTRACTS TO THE 2475 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN  OF 7319  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 36.595 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER AND 5.170 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 4 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZE 2475 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.88 PTS OR 0.71% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 586.87 POINTS OR 2.27% /The Nikkei closed UP 220.02 POINTS OR 1.10% / Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.95%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8279 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 50.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.71 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8279 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8321: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/CHINA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

 

 

i)CHINA/IRAN/SYRIA

THIS IS A BIGGY!!

Reuters exposes Huawei’s deep ties to Iran and Syria.  The evidence is irrefutable.  Once Meng is brought to the USA, you can sense that there is going to be considerable trouble coming from the Chinese

( zerohedge)

ii)Talks conclude and a message will be released on Thursday. The market is putting far too much emphasis of a trade deal.  Even if a deal is made it will not make a difference

( zerohedge)
iii) the talks were a “nothingburger”
(zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)FRANCE

Looks to me like martial law: France moves to ban all protests as PM announces a major crackdown on yellow vests

( zerohedge)

ii)FRANCE

Macron may trigger a huge debt crisis with his yellow vest crackdown as nobody will buy French bonds except the ECB who have already announced a shutdown on purchases of EU bonds on Jan 1.2019

( Tom Luongo)

iii)UK
It sure looks like the entire globe is freezing in growth. Today it is UK auto sales which have plunged the most since the financial crisis of 2008
( zerohedge)

iv)UK

another embarrassing defeat for Theresa May as they pass an amendment which will probably kill her Brexit deal

( zerohedge)

v)GERMANY

My goodness:  The prosecutors in the Deutsche bank tax evasion case (Panama Papers) had 900 clients that evaded German tax. This is going to hurt Deutsche bank considerably

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Turkey/USA

 

the Turkish newspaper is reading Trump incorrectly:  They state that a “soft coup” against Trump is underway and that is why he is slowing down the process of his removal of troops from Syria

( zerohedge

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

a)Again, we are receiving information that the entire globe has seized.  Apple for the second time in 2 months has just slashed its iphone production

( zerohedge)

b)And now the second bad news of the day for Apple: they are cutting prices

(courtesy zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

1. Turkey as they never recognized the treaty of 1974 and they believe that the gas fields are theirs.  They have threatened to attack Cyprus if the gas pipeline is built.
2. Lebanon/Hezbollah: these guys always threaten and with their missiles, they can hit the major fields.
( Global Risk/OIl Price.com

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)Venezuela

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)It has almost been 10 years for Denmark to experience negative interest rates and they are not letting up.

( Rigillo/Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)Henrich is stating what we have been telling you for years;  The Fed has been propping up the stock market

( Henrich/MarketWatch/GATA)

iii)Craig is not sure that we have a yuan-gold peg for the 2019 trading year

(Craig Hemke/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

the dollar is getting pummeled

( zerohedge)

ii)Market data/

a)USA consumer credit hits an all time high amid record student and auto loans. Both of these loans total basically 4 trillion dollars

( zerohedge)

b)the hopeless case of the city of Chicago
( Simon Black/Sovereign Man)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)S and P downgrades the PG and E to junk and thus another fallen angel.  This will launch a 800 million collateral call as PG and E is no longer eligible debt for collateral

( zerohedge)

b)Fitch threatens to join S and P in cutting the uSA debt from its AAA rating.  The reason: the upcoming debt ceiling battle

( zerohedge)

c)The strong and powerful State Street bank had its new CEO fire 15% of senior manangment as its shares slump

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Our deep state Deputy Attorney General is expected to resign in the coming weeks and it will occur at the same time as Barr is confirmed.  What a chicken!

( zerohedge)

b)The feud between Pelosi and Trump intensifies after Trump threatens to pull Fema funds (issued for the California fires). Trump claims that California did nothing to prevent the fires

(zerohedge).

c)To be expected;  Trump walks out of a meeting with Chuck and Nancy after both state that even if Trump opens up government there will be no money for the wall.

(courtesy zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN  FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 9011 CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 455,232 WITH THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($3.70) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8444 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR FEBRUARY:  8444 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8444 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  567 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8444 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 9011 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 567 contracts OR 56700  OZ OR 1.76 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of JANUARY and here the open interest stands at 99 contracts as we LOST 251 contracts. We had 300 notice filed on yesterday so we gained 49 contract or 4900 oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negate a fiat bonus. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS IN EARNEST TO THE COMEX GOLD COMPLEX.

 

 

The next active delivery month is February and here the OI lost by 25,010 contracts DOWN to 277,007 contracts.  After February, March received another 1 contract to stand at 472.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI rose by 12,088 contracts up to 98,692 contracts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE  January 2018 contract month

 

 

ON JANUARY 1/2018: 1.297 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY  (Jan 1 2019 initial standing 1.306 tonnes)

EVENTUALLY ON JAN 31.2018: 2.17 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX

 

 

WE HAD 46 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 4600 OZ. (0..1430 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 4844  CONTRACTS FROM 181,662 UP TO 186,506 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 4 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS 736 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED  11 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 12 NOTICES FILED ON YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 23 CONTRACTS OR  115,000 ADDITIONAL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR SILVER AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS FEBRUARY AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 21 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 464. AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 1398 CONTRACTS UP TO 146.225 CONTRACTS.

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 7319 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  4844 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2475 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  7319 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 4 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH AND JANUARY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE JAN 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD A GOOD 2.695 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY’

AT THE CONCLUSION OF JAN/2018 WE HAD 3.650 MILLION OZ STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NORM FOR SILVER

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 22 notice(s) filed for 120,000 OZ for the FEB, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  255,468 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  286,673  contracts

volumes at the comex for both gold and silver are much less than usual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 9-/2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
500.65 oz
scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

NIL

 

OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
46 notice(s)
 4600 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
53 contracts
(5300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
444 notices
44,400 OZ
1.3810 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  NIL oz

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Scotia:  500.65 oz of gold was withdrawn from the customer account of Scotia

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  500.65 oz

 

we had 0  adjustments….

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 46 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 11 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (444) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (99 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (46 x 100 oz per contract) equals 49,700 OZ OR 1.5456 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON  active month of JANUARY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (444 x 100 oz)  + {99)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (46 x 100 oz )which equals 49,700 oz standing OR 1.5456 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JANUARY.

We gained 49 contracts or an additional 4900 oz will stand in this non active month of January as queue jumping resumes at the gold comex.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.372 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.5456 TONNES STANDING FOR JANUARY

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  751,413.930 oz or   23.372 tonnes*
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,431,760.913 oz 262.26 tonnes
In December  we had 23.374 tonnes of gold  SERVED UPON against dealer inventory of 23.373 tonnes and  no evidence of settlements.  We generally get a settlement when we see an adjustment from the dealer side to the customer side.. We have now gone through the entire month of December with only one tiny adjustment from a dealer to a customer account.  THERE WERE NO OTHER TRANSFERS TO INDICATE A SETTLEMENT.
Thus by the end of December we had:  23.374 tonnes of gold standing for metal against only 23.186 tonnes of dealer gold and .182 tonnes has been settled…(Dec 17)
We now add 1.5456 tonnes of gold standing in January against this same 23.372 tonnes available for delivery.
If you want to keep score:
December: 23.374 tonnes
January 1.5456 tonnes
total: 24.919 tonnes against inventory of 23.372 tonnes (registered)

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 92 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

JAN INITIAL standings/SILVER

JAN 9, 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
619.094.984oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
429,349.620  oz
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
22
CONTRACT(S)
120,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
714 contracts
3,570,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 320 contracts

(1,600,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: 429,340.62 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.51% of all official comex silver. (147.7 million/293 million)

ii) Everybody else;  zero

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 429,349.620  oz

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT:619,094.984 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 619,094.984   oz

 

we had 0 adjustment

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  83.633 million

total dealer + customer silver:  293.175 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY 2018. contract month is represented by 22 contract(s) FOR 110,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 320 x 5,000 oz = 1,600,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (736) and the number of notices served upon today (22x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY/2018 contract month: 320(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN( 736) -number of notices served upon today (22)x 5000 oz equals 5,170,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month. We gained 23 contracts or an additional 115,000 oz will  stand for delivery and these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. QUEUE JUMPING IS NOW THE NORM FOR THE BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AS SUPPLIES DIMINISH.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  77,687 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 74,112 CONTRACTS… 

volumes at the comex now increasing for silver

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 74,112 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 370 million OZ  52.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.84-% (JAN 9/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.94% to NAV (JAN 9 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.84%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.19/TRADING 12.72/DISCOUNT 3.62

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 STRANGELY A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $8.65: A MASSIVE 15.88 TONNES WAS ADDED INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 790.02 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $0.15: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $15.15: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.15 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.14 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.35/A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JAN 8/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 799.18 tonnes

*IN LAST 530 TRADING DAYS: 135.98 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 430 TRADING DAYS: A NET 24.02 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN ADDITION OF 94,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317,233

DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.408 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/ INV. RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

 

 

JAN 9/2019:

 

Inventory 313.632 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.35/ and libor 6 month duration 2.85

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .50

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.63%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.01

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.38

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Blackrock Say Gold Will Be A “Valuable Portfolio Hedge” In 2019

– “We’re experiencing a slowdown,” says Blackrock fund manager
– Global Allocation Fund adding to gold exposure through ETFs
–  Gold “has had a very consistent record of helping mitigate equity risk when volatility is rising”
– Gold bullion has been a “store of value for a very long time”

by Bloomberg News

Gold may extend gains as global growth slows, equity market volatility remains elevated and the Federal Reserve is expected to ease back on the pace of policy tightening this year, according to a BlackRock Inc. money manager, who says the precious metal offers an effective hedge.


Source: COMEX and Bloomberg

“Recession fears are probably overblown, but I do think we’re experiencing a slowdown,” Russ Koesterich, portfolio manager at the $60 billion BlackRock Global Allocation Fund, said in an interview, citing decelerations in the U.S., China and Europe.

While BlackRock doesn’t have a price target, it’s been raising bullion holdings since the third quarter through exchange-traded funds.

Bullion surged in December as global stocks capped their worst annual performance since the financial crisis. Investors took fright at signs of economic weakness in the world’s largest economies, with China grappling against the U.S. trade war. Other political uncertainties, such as Brexit and the partial U.S. government shutdown, have also buttressed demand for havens.

“We’re constructive on gold,” Koesterich said in the phone interview on Friday. “We think it’s going to be a valuable portfolio hedge. We’re multi-asset investors: we think about its effect on the entire portfolio, and what we see value in right now is gold’s value as a diversifier.”

Gold futures advanced 7.1 percent on the Comex in the final quarter of 2018 as worldwide ETF holdings expanded, and prices carried on rallying in the opening days of the new year to top $1,300 an ounce on Friday, before a standout U.S. jobs report spurred a small drop. The metal was last at about $1,293.

The Fed raised rates four times in 2018 and investors have been trying to assess how many hikes, if any, policy makers will deliver this year. On Friday, Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that rises could be paused if the U.S. economy weakened. A more data-dependent Fed, combined with net softer U.S. data, could hurt the dollar, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

With the dollar and interest rates expected to be range bound, this could be bullish for gold, according to Koesterich.

“There were two things that worked against gold for most of last year — one was rising real interest rates, and the second was a strong dollar — and those were a function of the Fed consistently raising U.S. rates,” said Koesterich. “If there’s a pause in that trend, that will remove or mitigate two of the headwinds that hurt gold during the first nine months of the year.”

Investors are paying close attention to the partial government shutdown, which is now into its third week as President Donald Trump and Republicans remain at an impasse with Democrats over border security funding. While the deadlock isn’t overly significant for the economy or financial markets, it has the potential to undermine confidence if it drags on, Koesterich said.

The “shutdown is occurring in the context of a lot of political uncertainty, trade frictions,” said Koesterich. “The relationship between uncertainty, volatility and gold’s relative performance, it’s something that’s worth watching. It has been a store of value for a very long time, and again, it has had a very consistent record of helping mitigate equity risk when volatility is rising.”

Courtesy of Bloomberg


Editors note:
 Gold bullion, not gold ETFs, has been a store of value for thousands of years. Gold ETFs have yet to be tested in a major geopolitical or financial crisis. They are excellent vehicles for getting exposure to the gold and silver price, long or short, but should not be confused with store of value and safe haven gold and silver coins and bars.

 

 

News and Commentary

Stocks Advance on Renewed Trade Hopes; Oil Climbs: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)

Gold steady as market awaits news on trade deal (Reuters.com)

World Bank sees global growth slowing in 2019 to 2.9% (Reuters.com)

Gold prices end with a loss as stocks, dollar advance (MarketWatch.com)

World stocks rise on U.S.-China trade talk hopes (Reuters.com)

Global gold-backed ETF holdings grew 3% in 2018 (MiningWeekly.com)

Global gold-backed ETF holdings grew 3% in 2018 (Gold.org)

Gold Is The Go-To Safe Haven Of 2019 (DollarCollapse.com)

Ugly truth is that Fed is propping up the stock market (MarketWatch.com)

How likely is it that Social Security will go broke? (MarketWatch.com)

Even Bond Traders Don’t Believe This Rally (Bloomberg.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

08 Jan: USD 1,291.90, GBP 1,006.71 & EUR 1,121.62 per ounce
07 Jan: USD 1,291.50, GBP 1,013.83 & EUR 1,129.03 per ounce
04 Jan: USD 1,290.35, GBP 1,016.80 & EUR 1,131.24 per ounce
03 Jan: USD 1,287.95, GBP 1,024.05 & EUR 1,132.62 per ounce
02 Jan: USD 1,287.20, GBP 1,014.44 & EUR 1,125.27 per ounce
31 Dec: USD 1,281.65, GBP 1,005.45 & EUR 1,120.03 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

08 Jan: USD 15.64, GBP 12.24 & EUR 13.64 per ounce
07 Jan: USD 15.75, GBP 12.35 & EUR 13.77 per ounce
05 Jan: USD 15.75, GBP 12.35 & EUR 13.77 per ounce
04 Jan: USD 15.70, GBP 12.40 & EUR 13.76 per ounce
03 Jan: USD 15.53, GBP 12.37 & EUR 13.70 per ounce
02 Jan: USD 15.44, GBP 12.19 & EUR 13.51 per ounce
31 Dec: USD 15.47, GBP 12.11 & EUR 13.51 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Financial Advice In 2019: Own Gold To Hedge $250 Trillion Global Debt Bubble – GoldCore In Irish Times
– China Adds 320,000 Ounces To Gold Reserves – First Central Bank Purchase Since October 2016
– Gold At 6 Month High At $1,300 and All Time Record Highs In Australian Dollars Over $1,870
– Gold Hedges Stock Market Falls In 2018 – Gains 2.7% In Euros and 3.8% In Pounds
– Hope For Best In 2019 But Prepare For Worst by Increased Allocations to Gold and Silver – Outlook 2019 Podcast
– Prepare For Global Debt Bubble Collapse – Outlook 2019
– Happy Christmas From All The Team in GoldCore
– Gold Prices Likely To Go Higher In 2019 After 4% Gain In Q4 2018
– Everything Bubble Started Bursting In 2018 – GoldCore Video
– Global Financial System Is ‘Unstable’ and Risk Of ‘Clearing System Seizure’, BIS Warns
– Gold Flowing From West To East and Now To Goldman Sachs

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Directo

 

* * *

GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER

It has almost been 10 years for Denmark to experience negative interest rates and they are not letting up.

(courtesy Rigillo/Bloomberg/GATA)

Denmark may be first to try a decade of negative interest rates

 Section: 

By Nick Rigillo
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, January 8, 2019

The world’s longest experiment with negative interest rates may end up lasting an entire decade.

Not until 2021 at the earliest will Danes have a chance to see positive rates again, according to Danske Bank. The country’s policy rate first dropped below zero in 2012.

… 

 

.Danske Bank senior analyst Jens Naervig Pedersen says last year’s pattern of krone depreciation, which had some economists predicting rate hikes, won’t continue. In fact, he expects the Danish currency to appreciate in 2019. And with the central bank’s sole purpose being to defend the krone’s peg to the euro, a stronger exchange rate makes monetary tightening in Denmark less likely.

Nowhere else have people lived with negative interest rates as long as in AAA-rated Denmark. The policy has protected the currency peg, but it has also turbo-charged the mortgage market and pushed those trying to save money into riskier assets. Meanwhile banks have done a bit less traditional lending and a lot more wealth management. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-08/a-decade-of-negative-…

END

Henrich is stating what we have been telling you for years;  The Fed has been propping up the stock market

(courtesy Henrich/MarketWatch/GATA)

Sven Henrich: Ugly truth is that Fed is propping up the stock market

 Section: 

By Sven Henrich
MarketWatch, New York
Monday, January 7, 2019

For years critics of U.S. central-bank policy have been dismissed as Negative Nellies, but the ugly truth is staring us in the face: Stock-market advances remain a game of artificial liquidity and central-bank jawboning, not organic growth. And now the jig is up.

As I’ve been saying for a long time: There is zero evidence that markets can make or sustain new highs without some sort of intervention on the side of central banks. None. Zero. Zilch.

… 

And don’t think this is hyperbole on my part. I will, of course, present evidence.

In March 2009 markets bottomed on the expansion of QE1 (Wuantitative Easing, Part 1), which was introduced following the initial announcement in November 2008. Every major correction since then has been met with major central-bank interventions: QE2, Twist, QE3, and so on.

When market tumbled in 2015 and 2016, global central banks embarked on the largest combined intervention effort in history. The sum: More than $5 trillion between 2016 and 2017, giving us a grand total of over $15 trillion, courtesy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-its-time-to-hea…

END

Craig is not sure that we have a yuan-gold peg for the 2019 trading year

(Craig Hemke/GATA)

 

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The yuan-gold ‘peg’ in 2019

 Section: 

5:45p ET Tuesday, January 8, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, writing tonight at Sprott Money, re-examines the correlation of gold prices with the Chinese yuan but can’t be sure that some entity is tying them together.

Hemke also examines the trends of gold and silver generally and senses that speculators are moving from short to long.

His analysis is headlined “The Yuan-Gold Peg in 2019” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-yuan-gold-peg-in-2019-craig-hemke-0…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

EN D





iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

 

 

 

-END-

 

 

 

 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.8279/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8321   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 17,88 PTS OR 0.71%

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 586.87 POINTS OR 2.27%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 220.02 POINTS OR 1.10%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 95.86/Euro FALLS TO 1.1449

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.91/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 50.91 and Brent: 59.71

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.28%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.92% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.51%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.64: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.32

3k Gold at $1282.00 silver at:15.62   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 20/100 in roubles/dollar) 67.10

3m oil into the 50 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.91 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9795 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1227 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.28%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.73% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.02%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.5301

 

 

 

US Futures Extend Longest Gain Since November As Trade Talks Conclude

Global stocks rose, and US equity futures extended their longest winning streak since November, rising for a 4th day as the US and China concluded three days of trade talks on what Bloomberg reported was an “optimistic note”.

World stocks extended gains to hit a near-four week high, WTI crude oil rose above $50 and most industrial metals advanced on Wednesday on optimism that the United States and China may be inching toward a trade deal, soothing fears an all-out trade war could hit a slowing global economy, while China stepped up measures to spur consumption. Reuters reported that a senior Chinese official said Beijing plans to introduce policies to boost domestic spending on items such as autos and home appliances this year.

“The positive news around the trade talks is giving a boost to risk assets – it’s what the global economy needs to see,” said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets in London. “There are also reports of new initiatives by China to boost spending and that’s desirable from the perspective of Chinese and global growth.”

As reported earlier, delegations from China and the U.S. ended talks that had lasted longer than expected in Beijing on Wednesday amid signs of progress on issues including purchases of U.S. farm and energy commodities and increased access to China’s markets. Officials said details will be released soon with Global Times editor Hu Xijin tweeting that “the trade talks, though arduous, were conducted in a pleasant and candid atmosphere. Neither side has made the briefing, because the US delegation is on the plane now. The two sides will release message at the same time on Thursday morning Beijing time.”

Trade developments between the U.S. and China have remained a focal point for traders after a report that Trump was eager to strike a deal to help revive the flagging stock rally he was happy to take credit for. While concerns linger about the impact of protectionist tensions on global growth, a favorable outcome would set up a potential Goldilocks scenario for markets after Fed Chair Powell’s apparent dovish shift last week eased fears about tightening financial conditions.

As a result of growing trade optimism, MSCI’s all-country index rose another 0.4% in a fourth straight day of gains. Asian bourses saw a strong finish with Japan’s Nikkei and China’s blue-chip CSI 300 closing up 1% while the tech-heavy South Korean KOSPI jumped nearly 2%.

European bourses then picked up the Asian baton, with the pan-European STOXX 600 rising more than 1% with German and French benchmarks leading the way.

U.S. equity futures also rose, set for another strong day on Wall Street after the S&P 500 gained nearly 1 percent on Tuesday; US futures are now higher for 4 consecutive days – the longest stretch since November.

Not everyone was optimistic however: Kate Moore, chief equity strategist at BlackRock told Bloomberg that “we could get some more stabilization and a floor in the market if we make strides towards an agreement” on trade, but “this is going to be an issue overhanging markets I believe for multiple years.”

Meanwhile, stocks got another boost overnight after Trump demanded in his televised address that Congress provide billions for a border wall with Mexico, but stopped short of declaring a national emergency or making any other dramatic announcements. In Trump’s first-ever prime-time address, he said there is an increasing security crisis at the US southern border and that Americans are hurt by uncontrolled, illegal migration, while he also said they requested USD 5.7bln for a border wall which will be a steel barrier. Following the speech, US House Speaker Pelosi responded that President Trump is rejecting bipartisan deal to reopen government and has chosen fear over shutdown impasse, while Senate minority leader Schumer called for the government to reopen while debate over border continues. At the same time, the government shutdown continues, now in its 19th day, thanks to the impasse over funding.

Curiously, and in another sign of subsiding worries about the U.S. economic outlook, Fed funds rate futures show traders are now pricing in a small chance of a rate hike in 2019, a change from late last week when futures markets had priced in a cut by the end of the year. “Slowly but surely, the numerous headwinds that contributed to the market sell-off in the final quarter of 2018 are becoming less gale force and more strong breeze,” Craig Erlam at OANDA wrote in a note. “There is a clear risk that conditions could deteriorate quickly but at the moment, the storm is passing and investors are seeing opportunities in the wreckage.”

In currency markets, the dollar consolidated recent losses before a series of Fed speakers and the minutes of FOMC’s latest decision, while Treasuries were little changed. Commodity currencies and stocks traded in the green on renewed trade hopes, with emerging-market currencies edging north.  The dollar index eased 0.2% to 95.69 against a basket of currencies, hovering close to a 2-1/2 month low hit on Monday. The euro traded at $1.1464 while the dollar stood at 108.90 yen. Theresa May’s Brexit deal returns to Parliament while one-week volatility in the pound rallied on the Jan. 15 vote risk.

In Asia, the yuan led gains, rising in offshore trading by 0.4% to its strongest level in five weeks. Asian currencies as rising on optimism the U.S. and China will be able to defuse their trade war outweighed a worsening global growth outlook. “With little by way of domestic economic data to provide any guidance for Asian currencies, the focus remains on the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks,” says Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ in Singapore. Expectations some sort of deal could be reached have buoyed regional assets, but foreign investor equity flows into the region remain muted, suggesting there’s still some caution, he said. EM Asian currency prospects have improved owing to factors including the better-than-expected China services PMI and U.S. jobs data, says Christopher Wong, a senior FX strategist at Maybank in Singapore. Still, risks remain as growth momentum is easing and there’s concern over the corporate earnings outlook, Wong said.

Elsewhere, oil prices extended their gains, rising nearly 1% with U.S. WTI crude oil futures rose above $50 per barrel overnight for the first time in 2019, after 9 consecutive days of gains.

U.S. bond yields also climbed, with the benchmark 10-year Treasuries yield rising as high as 2.7404%, compared with its one-year low of 2.543% hit just before Friday’s strong payrolls data.

Looking ahead to today, the FOMC minutes this evening will likely be the highlight and with the Brexit debate resuming in parliament any headlines there will also be closely watched. The minutes will provide more color on the Committee’s thinking around several key issues for market participants—namely, their views about headwinds from slowing global growth, progress on the Fed’s balance sheet strategy, and the debate around the neutral policy rate. After Powell’s early-year semi U-turn, the minutes could be slightly dated though. Other expected data include mortgage applications, while the Fed is scheduled to release FOMC meeting minutes, ahead of Powell’s speech at to the Economic Club of Washington D.C. on Thursday. Constellation Brands and Lennar are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,577.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1% to 349.14
  • MXAP up 1.4% to 150.53
  • MXAPJ up 1.6% to 486.48
  • Nikkei up 1.1% to 20,427.06
  • Topix up 1.1% to 1,535.11
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 26,462.32
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 2,544.34
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 36,158.62
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 5,778.29
  • Kospi up 2% to 2,064.71
  • German 10Y yield rose 7.7 bps to 0.303%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1469
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 5.4 bps to 2.592%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 1.517%
  • Brent futures up 1.7% to $59.73/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,281.08
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 95.85

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • President Donald Trump is increasingly eager to strike a deal with China soon in an effort to perk up financial markets that have slumped on concerns over the trade war, according to people familiar with internal White House deliberations
  • The two countries wrapped up three days of trade talks, with people familiar saying their positions were closer on areas including energy and agriculture but further apart on harder issues. The one-day extension of the talks shows both sides are serious about negotiations, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang says
  • A rare flurry of schedule changes by regional legislatures across China suggests that President Xi Jinping may be clearing the calendar for a long-awaited Communist Party gathering later this month
  • China’s Finance Ministry is set to propose a small increase in the targeted budget deficit for this year as officials seek to balance support for the economy with the need to keep control of debt levels
  • The yen’s spectacular start to 2019 has been a case of too much, too soon for two influential investment firms that between them manage about $1 trillion in assets. AllianceBernstein Ltd. sold the currency as it surged 4 percent last week amid the dollar’s flash crash. Manulife Asset Management cut its holdings of the yen against the Australian dollar that day

Asian equity markets were higher across the board as sentiment remained underpinned by trade hopes after US-China discussions were extended into a 3rd day and with progress said to have been made on issues including purchases of US goods, while US President Trump also provided encouragement as he stated that talks were going well. As such, ASX 200 (+1.0%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) were positive as they benefitted from the trade-related optimism which had inspired a 3rd consecutive gain amongst the US majors, with notable strength also seen in Australia’s energy names after WTI reclaimed the USD 50/bbl level to the upside. Hang Seng (+2.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) were also in the green as focus centred on trade while reports suggested that US President Trump wants a China trade deal soon to boost markets. Finally, 10yr JGBs tracked the downside in T-notes as the broad gains in stocks sapped safe-haven demand, while the BoJ’s Rinban announcement was also somewhat trivial with the central bank only in the market for around JPY 450bln concentrated in the belly.

Top Asian News

  • Philippine Bulls on a Roll as Overseas Stocks Funds Trickle Back
  • China Is Said to Propose Wider 2019 Fiscal Deficit Amid Slowdown
  • BlackRock Sees Rally in Asia Credit After Losses Last Year
  • Rare China Schedule Changes Suggest Major Policy Meeting Is Near

Major European indices are in the green [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%] as market sentiment remains fixated around the recently concluded US-China trade talks, with China’s foreign ministry indicating that they are taking the talks very seriously. Germany’s DAX (+0.9%) is outperforming its peers, with auto names such as Volkswagen (+2.9%) and BMW (+1.5%) in the green on the aforementioned trade talk sentiment; Daimler (+3.7%) lead the German auto’s with Mercedes-Benz selling 2.31mln cars in 2018 likely to make them that year’s best-selling premium auto. Sectors are broadly in the green, with consumer discretionary the outperforming sector with luxury names such as Kering (+3.8%) and Burberry (+2.8%) up as US-China talks conclude. Other notable movers include Ted Baker (+11.3%) after announcing a 12% increase in retail sales for the 5 weeks to January 5th. Elsewhere, Taylor Wimpey (+6.9%) after Co report good trading performance, with 2018 total home completions +3%. At the bottom of the Stoxx 600 are ADP (-4.7%) after reports that the French government are considering delaying privatisation until 2020.

Top European News

  • Deutsche Bank Drops as UBS Sees a Challenging Fourth Quarter
  • Autos Lead Gains in Europe on Trade Optimism, China Stimulus
  • Future Daimler CEO Sees Record Year Despite Global Auto Slowdown
  • Sainsbury’s Holiday Sales Fall as Cautious Consumers Hold Back

In FX, the dollar eases further below 96.000 following a rangebound Asia-Pac session amid trade optimism with the third day of trade talks giving off somewhat of an upbeat vibe. China’s Foreign Ministry stated that the longer talks signified the country’s seriousness, while the China Global Times Editor also took note of the positive sentiment surrounding the dialogue. As such the DXY remains closer to the bottom of a 95.925-660 range ahead of the FOMC Minutes later today (full preview available on the Research Suite).

  • GBP, EUR – The Pound extended on gains before paring a bulk of the move with fears of a no-deal Brexit receding as the UK Government seems to be losing more power in Parliament. To recap recent events, the Government was defeated in a vote regarding the Finance Bill which limits the scope for tax changes in the event of a no-deal. Additionally, if Labour and Tory rebels vote down the business motion (due at around 1300GMT), then Parliament will take control of the timing of the meaningful vote debate from the Government, i.e. PM May will not have room to further delay it. Furthermore, Business Insider also reported that UK businesses will make urgent public interventions about the perils of a no-deal Brexit should MPs vote down the deal on the 15th. Subsequently, Cable retreated to near the bottom of a 1.2712-77 range with resistance seen at 1.2790 (yesterday’s high) and support at 1.2712 (7th Jan low). Meanwhile, the EUR is marginally firmer, mostly on the back of a softer USD as an EZ upbeat unemployment rate and wider-than-expected German trade surplus did little to budge the single currency as exports fell more-than-expected.
  • SEK,NOK – The Scandi Crowns are mixed with the SEK marginally softer following the release of the Riksbank Minutes from the December meeting which initially saw a firmer Crown as several Board Members noted that even though the inflation forecast for the next few years has also been revised downwards slightly, the conditions are still good for inflation to remain close to the 2% inflation target. Nordea notes that the release was marginally dovish given the risks surrounding the repo path downgrade. As Such EUR/SEK pared back the initial move lower to test 10.2400 to the upside (vs. low of 10.1967) ahead of its 200 HMA at 10.2428.
  • AUD, NZD, CAD – The non-US dollars are on the front foot amid commodity price action with the Kiwi leading the gains. AUD was briefly hampered by the release of disappointing Australian building approvals overnight while AMP Capital’s Chief Economist said he sees the RBA cutting rates to 1.00% this year (currently 1.50%) due to a fall in building approvals and negative wealth effects from declining house prices dragging on economic growth. In terms of technical, AUD/USD sees clean air to the downside until the psychological level at 0.7000, while NZD/USD is capped at its 50 DMA 0.6782 and trading just above its 20 DMA 0.6744. Meanwhile USD/CAD sits near the bottom of a 1.3223-79 range with the rise in oil supporting the Loonie ahead of the BoC interest rate decision (full preview available on the Research Suite), looking at technicals, the pair’s 50 HMA (to the upside) sits at 1.3284 with clean air seen to the downside until 1.3200 the figure.
  • JPY – The marked G10 underperformer as the safe-haven currency unwinds risks premium given the positivity around US-Sino trade talks with USD/JPY residing just below 109.00, having already tested the psychological level. On a technical front, past the 109.00 psychological level, 109.16 is a reported Fib level ahead of resistance at 109.73 (2nd Jan high).

In commodities, Brent (+1.7%) and WTI (+1.9%) prices are higher, with WTI breaching the USD 50/bbl level to the upside, and approaching USD 51/bbl, on hopes that a resolution can be achieved between the US and China. Alongside Brent testing, and briefly crossing, USD 60.00/bbl. Prices garnered further support from yesterday’s API crude inventories, which showed a larger than expected draw of -6.127mln vs. Exp. -2.7mln. Markets will be looking ahead to EIA data later on in the session, where expectations for weekly crude stocks are for a -3.3mln draw. UAE Energy Minister Mazrouei stated that the volatility in oil prices last year was counterproductive, and OPEC have stopped chasing an illogical or impractical price. Elsewhere, Berenberg have cut their 2019 Brent price forecast from USD 82.5/bbl to USD 65/bbl; and Morgan Stanley have updated their Brent forecast to USD 61.00/bbl vs. Prev. USD 69.00/bbl. Gold (-0.3%) prices have remained subdued by the positive risk sentiment from the US-China trade progress. Elsewhere, US plans to remove sanctions on Rusal, the Russian aluminium Co, are suggested to be of limited benefit to US consumers as aluminium import tariffs mean produces would require significantly greater prices in order to incentivise shipments.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -8.5%
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 8:20am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks in Chattanooga on Economic Outlook
  • 9am: Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy
  • 11:30am: Fed’s Rosengren Speaks on the Economic Outlook
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

May I be the 150th person to wish you a Happy New Year. It’s my first day back at work today and I’m writing this en route to Switzerland. Over the last two weeks in the Alps I’ve had numerous hot chocolates, bottles of red, tartiflettes, pizzas, burgers, portions of chips, hot marshmallows, ice creams and fondues. To balance this I’ve skinned up the mountain 12 times, done 20-odd snowy and hilly dog walks and looked after three excitable children. On balance there has still been more input than output though and am therefore relieved to be back at work so my body can have a rest from all angles. We nervously put 3 year old Maisie into ski school and thankfully she seemed to enjoy it. If you want to see what a three year old skiing with irresponsible parents looks like (post ski school) click on my Bloomberg header this morning to see.

If the end of 2018 was all uphill for risk, 2019 has so far seen the market wax up its skis, sharpen its edges and point them downhill. A reminder that our forecasts for 2018 and 2019 were both bearish based on the withdrawal of central bank liquidity and the lagged impact on global volatility and risk of the Fed tightening cycle. However we turned tactically bullish for Q1 2019 in the latter half of November which in timing terms proved to be too early (or wrong depending on where we end up!). We would stand by this prediction and think the early months of this year will be the best as the risks of a near-term recession and worse case trade scenarios are eventually seen to be overdone. However after that we will still live in a world of less central bank liquidity after years of excess and a period where the lagged impact of the prior Fed hikes will resonate. We still think the US yield curve (2s10s) will be the best indicator of the probability of a recession in 2020 (see our Yield Curve 101 note here from late last year for more). For us it needs to invert to suggest one is coming over the following 12-18 months. In turn, whether it inverts depends on the interplay between the Fed and the market. The worst case scenario is a Fed that ploughs through and continues to hike when the market disagrees with them (rightly or wrongly, and 10-year yields fall) or the data doesn’t justify it. A Fed at odds with the market is still very possible, especially after last Friday’s strong payroll and earnings data. However Powell’s speech last week indicated a more dovish approach than his pre-Xmas musings which is largely why 2019 has started well. So overall, all to play for, but the Fed and market interplay is likely to be the key battleground this year. Today’s Fed minutes (possibly a bit dated since Powell has already spoken since the meeting), multiple Fedspeak today (Evans, Bostic, and Rosengren) and tomorrow (Powell, Clarida, Bullard, Evans, Barkin, and Kashkari) and Friday’s US CPI will be the next major landmarks on this.

So momentum continues to favour those who point the skis straight down the mountain even if US markets did experience some intraday volatility, opening up +1% before fading back into the red around lunchtime, and ultimately rallying back to end the session near the highs. The S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ each notched up a third day of consecutive gains. That means that if we exclude the impact of the Boxing Day surge then this three-day run (+5.17%) for the S&P is the strongest since August 2015 and sits in the top 3 since the start of 2010. The 4 out of 5 ‘up’ days to start the year is something that’s happened 11 times out of 92 including this year. We’ve had a perfect start (5 out of 5) 6 times.

On a sector basis, the gains were somewhat mixed. There was no clear outperformance by either cyclicals or defensives, as buying was broad-based. 81% of S&P 500 companies advanced, the third consecutive session with over 77% of stocks in the index gaining. That’s the best such streak since July. One soft spot was semiconductors, which fell -0.48% as Samsung announced soft demand for its chips business and missed consensus fourth quarter earnings expectations.

Credit continues to make headway with US HY spreads another 16bps tighter yesterday (and 76bps tighter over the last 3 sessions). Euro HY also started to catch up with spreads 9bps tighter while the STOXX 600 notched up a +0.87% gain. Autos were up +1.41% and +1.23% in Europe and the US, respectively, seemingly on the news that China was looking to boost auto purchases this year. Oil also played a part in yesterday’s risk on moves with WTI Oil up +2.47%, placing it up +9.49% YTD already. EM equities gained +0.33% while currencies fell -0.12%. Oil importers were pressured, with the Indian rupee and South African rand down -0.74% and -0.65%, though Turkey underperformed heavily (-1.75%) as President Erodogan escalated his rhetorical battle with US National Security Advisor Bolton, saying “Bolton made a serious mistake (…) we will not compromise.”

There was also a bit of a lift in sentiment from President Trump’s comments on the US-China trade negotiations, specifically saying that “talks with China are going very well”. On the other hand, he also tweeted a quote from a steel union official supporting his tariffs, so it’s not clear what the takeaway message should be. Dow Jones also reported later that trade progress was being made although the two sides were (unsurprisingly) not ready to conclude a deal. It now confirmed that the US delegation is to remain in Beijing for a third day of talks today and China has confirmed that they will release a post-meeting statement once talks are concluded although it’s not entirely clear if the US delegation will release a statement themselves. The more important talks are likely to come later this month in any case. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported (citing sources) that President Trump is increasingly keen to strike a deal with China soon in an effort to perk up financial markets that have slumped on concerns over the trade war. In the meantime, the White House has crafted a bill which seeks to give the president broad authority to increase US tariffs if he considers other countries’ tariff and non-tariff measures to be too restrictive and President Trump is expected to urge Congress in his State of the Union address later this month to pass the new legislation.

Moving onto Trump’s first televised national address overnight. It was fairly low on substance for markets as he said more of same while discussing the ongoing US government shutdown and immigration policy. He reiterated that he considers the situation on the US’s southern border to be a crisis and called on Congress to authorize $5 bn for increased border security and a wall. Congressional Democrats subsequently gave no indication that they will meet his demands. So for now, the shutdown is set to continue and around 800,000 federal employees will miss their pay checks on Friday. Nevertheless, S&P 500 futures rallied into and during the address and are trading +0.47% higher this morning. President Trump is set to meet with the congress leaders today at 3pm (New York time) to further discuss the issue.

This morning in Asia risk has continued to rally hard with the Nikkei (+1.43%), Hang Seng (+2.46%), Shanghai Comp (+1.59%) and Kospi (+1.88%) all up. Besides the positivity around the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, sentiment is also getting aided by the overnight news (per Bloomberg) that China’s Finance Ministry is set to propose an annual fiscal deficit target of 2.8% of GDP for 2019, marking a small budget expansion from the deficit target of 2.6% in 2018. The target isn’t final though and is subject to approval at a meeting of the National People’s Congress, China’s legislature, in March. Meanwhile, Japan’s November real cash earnings data also came in strong at +1.1% yoy (vs. +0.4% yoy expected). Elsewhere, crude oil prices (WTI +1.59% and Brent +1.35%) are continuing their upward move this morning.

In other news, former Fed economist Nellie Liang withdrew her nomination for a seat on the Fed’s board of governors possibly giving an opportunity to President Trump to nominate someone whose views on interest rates are more streamlined with his own. Elsewhere, the World Bank lowered its growth projections in 2019 for the global economy by 0.1pp to 2.9% largely by shaving off 0.5pp growth for emerging markets to 4.2% while also downgrading its growth forecast for the Euro area slightly and keeping the growth forecast for the US at 2.5%.

As for Brexit, the parliament vote appears to now be confirmed for January 15th. Much of the newsflow ahead of the debate yesterday centred around PM May seeking EU assurances on the backstop provision however there didn’t appear to be any meaningful progress. Indeed, France’s Europe Minister said “there is nothing more we can do” to adjust the deal. A spokesman for PM May also denied that UK officials were talking to the EU about an Article 50 extension. Elsewhere the government lost a vote on funding a no-deal Brexit last night which complicates things a little for them as Parliament tries to stop a no-deal Brexit. Sterling faded in the afternoon yesterday to close down -0.46% while Gilts were a touch weaker (+2.0bps).

That wasn’t out of line with other bond markets however with Treasuries +3.2bps higher at 2.728% and the 2s10s curve at 14.0bps (-1.1bps), while in Europe Bunds nudged up to 0.226% (+0.5bps). BTPs (+5.5bps) stood out after coming within a couple of basis points of 3% again (closed 2.954%) after the recent (post-budget drama) 6 month low of 2.67% on January 2nd. Supply appeared to weigh with Bloomberg reporting that Italy’s Treasury was preparing a 15y bond deal, while yesterday we also had deal announcements from Ireland and Portugal, likely to price today.

The headline grabber data release in Europe yesterday came in the form of another soft print out of Germany, this time with the November industrial production report. Production was reported as falling -1.9% yoy compared to expectations for +0.3% mom, resulting in the annual figure dropping to -4.7% yoy and the lowest since 2009. Issues related to the auto sector, the timing of public holidays and, believe it or not, low water levels on the river Rhine (my favourite excuse ever) were all highlighted as negatively impacting the data. That appeared to filter through to weaker confidence readings for the broader Euro Area yesterday with the December releases out while in the US there wasn’t much excitement from yesterday’s releases. The December NFIB small business optimism reading fell 0.4pts in December to 104.4 but was well ahead of expectations while the November JOLTS report showed a steady quits rate at 2.3% and a modest tick lower in the hiring rate to 3.8% from 4.0%. These point to continued improvement in the wage outlook.

Looking ahead to today, the FOMC minutes this evening will likely be the highlight and with the Brexit debate resuming in parliament any headlines there will also be closely watched. Our team expect that the minutes will provide more colour on the Committee’s thinking around several key issues for market participants—namely, their views about headwinds from slowing global growth, progress on the Fed’s balance sheet strategy, and the debate around the neutral policy rate. After Powell’s early-year semi U-turn, the minutes could be slightly dated though.

As for other data that’s due out, we’ll get November trade stats out of Germany this morning followed by Q3 unit labour costs data for the UK and the November unemployment rate for the Euro Area. In the US we’ll also get the latest MBA mortgage applications data. There should be plenty of eyes on today’s Fedspeak also in light of Powell’s comments last week with Bostic (1.20pm GMT), Evans (2pm GMT) and Rosengren (4.30pm GMT) all on the cards. The BoE’s Carney is also due to participate in an online Q&A this afternoon. Finally it’s worth noting that US Trade Representative Lighthizer is due to meet EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom today to discuss bilateral trade liberalization. It’s expected that both will also meet Japan’s trade and industry minister Seko to discuss China’s trade practices.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.88 PTS OR 0.71% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 586.87 POINTS OR 2.27% /The Nikkei closed UP 220.02 POINTS OR 1.10% / Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.95%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8279 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 50.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.71 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8279 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8321: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/CHINA

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

i)CHINA/IRAN/SYRIA

THIS IS A BIGGY!!

Reuters exposes Huawei’s deep ties to Iran and Syria.  The evidence is irrefutable.  Once Meng is brought to the USA, you can sense that there is going to be considerable trouble coming from the Chinese

(courtesy zerohedge)

Reuters Exposes Huawei’s Deep Ties To Iran And Syria

Reuters reporters have been covering Huawei’s business dealings in Iran for years, with reports about Huawei’s illegal sales of US-made equipment to an Iranian telecoms firm dating back to 2012. Some of these reports have been cited in the US case against Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, who was arrested in Canada on Dec. 1 on allegations she knowingly misled banks about Huawei’s relationship with its Hong Kong-based “partner” Skycom, which Reuters exposed for facilitating sales to Iranian companies in violation of US sanctions.

And in its latest report on Huawei’s dealings in the Islamic Republic, Reuters examined corporate filings and other documents in Iran and Syria which proved that Huawei’s relationship with Skycom and another firm – Syria-based shell company Canicula Holdings – is even deeper than had previously been reported. These revelations show that Huawei’s business dealings in both countries are even more extensive than previously believed.

Huawei

The filings cited by Reuters revealed that a senior Huawei executive named Shi Yaohong was also the Iranian manager at Skycom (before the company, recently exposed as a fully-owned subsidiary of Huawei, was dissolved). They also revealed that three individuals with Chinese names had signing rights for bank accounts tied to both Huawei and Skycom.

The documents reveal that a high-level Huawei executive appears to have been appointed Skycom’s Iran manager. They also show that at least three Chinese-named individuals had signing rights for both Huawei and Skycom bank accounts in Iran. Reuters also discovered that a Middle Eastern lawyer said Huawei conducted operations in Syria through Canicula.

The previously unreported ties between Huawei and the two companies could bear on the U.S. case against Meng, who is the daughter of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, by further undermining Huawei’s claims that Skycom was merely an arms-length business partner.

But despite the company’s efforts to portray its operations in Iran as a past transgression, Reuters report suggests that Huawei is still operating in Syria and Iran. Like Iran, Syria is another country impacted by US and EU sanctions, and its also home to a Huawei subsidiary that does business with Syrian telecoms firms.

The subsidiary, Canicula, is connected to Iran through MTN Syria, which has a subsidiary that operates in Iran. Though Huawei had apparently tried to cover its tracks – presumably after catching wind of the US investigation – by publishing notices proclaiming that Canicula was no longer operating in Syria.

And a Middle East based lawyer who once worked with Huawei told Reuters that Huawei continues to operate in both Syria and Iran despite what appear to be attempts to throw off US investigators.

Until two years ago, Canicula had an office in Syria, another country that has been subject to U.S. and European Union sanctions. In May 2014, a Middle Eastern business website called Aliqtisadi.com published a brief article about the dissolution of a Huawei company in Syria that specialized in automated teller machine (ATM) equipment. Osama Karawani, an attorney who was identified as the appointed liquidator, wrote a letter asking for a correction, stating that the article had caused “serious damage” to Huawei.

Karawani said the article suggested that Huawei itself had been dissolved, not just the ATM company. In his letter, which was linked to on the Aliqtisadi website, he said Huawei was still in business.

Huawei was never dissolved,” he wrote; he added that it “has been and is still operating in Syria through several companies which are Huawei Technologies Ltd and Canicula Holdings Ltd.”Huawei Technologies is one of Huawei’s main operating companies.

[…]

In December 2017, a notice was placed in a Syrian newspaper by “the General Director of the branch of the company Canicula Ltd.” He was not named. It announced that Canicula had “totally stopped operating” in Syria two months before. No explanation was given.

Meanwhile, Skycom’s corporate filings in Iran revealed that Shi, who is Huawei’s head of Middle East operations according to his LinkedIn page, and others were signatories on Huawei bank accounts.

A company record filed by Skycom in Iran that was entered in the Iranian registry in December 2011 states that a “Shi Yaohong” had been elected as manager of Skycom’s Iran branch for two years. Huawei employs an executive named Shi Yaohong.

According to his LinkedIn profile, Shi was named Huawei’s “President Middle East Region” in June 2012. An Emirates News Agency press release identified him in November 2010 as “President of Huawei Etisalat Key Account.” Etisalat is a major Middle Eastern telecommunications group and a Huawei partner.

Shi, now president of Huawei’s software business unit, hung up the phone when Reuters asked him about his relationship with Skycom.

Many corporate records filed by Skycom in Iran list signatories for its bank accounts in the country. Most of the names are Chinese; at least three of the individuals had signing rights for both Skycom and Huawei bank accounts. (One of the names is listed in the Iranian registry with two slightly different spellings but has the same passport number.) U.S. authorities allege in the court documents filed in Canada that Huawei employees were signatories on Skycom bank accounts between 2007 and 2013.

But the most damning quote comes at the very end of the story, and is attributed to an anonymous source with knowledge of Huawei’s history in the region: “Skycom was just a front” for Huawei.

All in all, this doesn’t bode well for Meng and her chances of evading a lengthy sentence once she is extradited to the US.

end
Talks conclude and a message will be released on Thursday. The market is putting far too much emphasis of a trade deal.  Even if a deal is made it will not make a difference
(courtesy zerohedge)

Beijing Trade Talks Conclude: China, US To Release “Message” Thursday

After the ‘mid-level’ talks between US and Chinese delegations in Beijing were extended for a third day on Wednesday, the negotiations have reportedly wrapped up, with both sides touting that they are “serious” about coming to an agreement, and that significant progress has been made, according to CNBC.

With the US delegation on its way back to Washington, China’s Foreign Ministry hinted that the talks had been a success and said it would soon release a statement on the outcome.

The Editor-in-Chief of China’s Global Times said that “though arduous” the trade talks were productive and that both sides were waiting for the US delegation to arrive back in Washington before delivering official statements on the outlook for a deal.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

China-US trade talks have ended. Based on what I know, the situation is quite positive. The two sides are still in consultation on the wording of the message, so the two versions can be coordinated.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

From what I know, the trade talks, though arduous, were conducted in a pleasant and candid atmosphere. Neither side has made the briefing, because the US delegation is on the plane now. The two sides will release message at the same time on Thursday morning Beijing time.

Meanwhile, US Under Secretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Ted McKinney told a group of reporter’s at the delegation’s hotel that he thought negotiations “went just fine.”

“It’s been a good one for us,” he said.

US markets climbed on Tuesday even as traders priced in a slightly more hawkish Fed as many apparently bought in to the narrative that both sides are doing everything in their power to come to an agreement (with equities moving higher after Bloomberg reported that Trump is desperate for a deal because he hopes it might send stocks back toward ATHs).

Trump

Though there were some reports that the two sides were further apart than some of the headlines let on.

However, people familiar with the talks told Reuters on Tuesday that the two sides were further apart on Chinese structural reforms that the Trump administration is demandingin order to stop alleged theft and forced transfer of U.S. technology, and on how Beijing will be held to its promises.

In another sign of confidence, China has approved another large order of US soybeans while also approving five GMO crops for import – its latest effort to boost imports from the US in accordance with one of Trump’s key demands.

In what is widely seen as a goodwill gesture, China on Tuesday issued long-awaited approvals for the import of five genetically modified crops, which could boost its purchases of U.S. grains as farmers decide which crops to plant in the spring.

On Monday, Chinese importers made another large purchase of U.S. soybeans, their third in the past month.

Trump and other White House officials have insisted that the US has leverage because of China’s rapidly cooling economic growth and the fact that its market dropped 25% last year (though Chinese stocks have slightly outperformed the US since the US imposed its first round of China-specific tariffs in July) . However, China has insisted that the trade strife harms both countries equally, and that it would not yield to any “unreasonable concessions.”

China is keen to put an end to its trade dispute with the United States but will not make any “unreasonable concessions” and any agreement must involve compromise on both sides, state newspaper the China Daily said on Wednesday.

The paper said in an editorial that Beijing’s stance remains firm that the dispute harms both countries and disrupts the international trade order and supply chains.

Setting the meeting off to an auspicious start, Liu He, China’s top economic official, dropped in and greeted the US trade delegation – led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish – on Monday. We now await confirmation that Liu and a delegation of more-senior officials will travel to Washington next week for the next round of talks.

The US and China have agreed to a “hard” deadline for an agreement of March 2.

END

After all that hype, the statement was nothing but a “nothingburger”

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Issues Statement On Trade Meeting In Beijing

The long-anticipated statement from the US Trade Representative on the just concluded 3 days of talks in Beijing has been released and it appears to be another “nothingburger”:

Alan Rappeport

@arappeport

In readout of China talks, USTR says officials discussed the need for any agreement w/ China to provide for “complete implementation subject to ongoing verification and effective enforcement.”

In the brief, sub-200 word statement, the USTR says that US and China negotiators discussed ways to achieve “fairness, reciprocity and balance in trade relations”; additionally, the talks also “focused on China’s pledge to purchase a substantial amount of agricultural, energy, manufactured goods, and other products  and services from the United States” – something that is hardly news – while the two sides also discussed “the need for any agreement to provide for complete implementation subject to ongoing verification and effective enforcement.”

In other words, absolutely no formal agreements or commitments and just more hot air, which begs the question: what was the point of this meeting if it achieved nothing in terms of trade, but then we look at the market’s response which is up 5% in four days on “trade deal optimism” and suddenly it all becomes clear.

Here is the full “Statement on the United States Trade Delegation’s Meetings in Beijing”

On January 7-9, an official delegation from the United States led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish held meetings in Beijing with Chinese officials to discuss ways to achieve fairness, reciprocity, and balance in trade relations between our two countriesThe officials also discussed the need for any agreement to provide for complete implementation subject to ongoing verification and effective enforcement

The meetings were held as part of the agreement reached by President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires to engage in 90 days of negotiations with a view to achieving needed structural changes in China with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft of trade secrets for commercial purposes, services, and agriculture.

The talks also focused on China’s pledge to purchase a substantial amount of agricultural, energy, manufactured goods, and other products  and services from the United States. The United States officials conveyed President Trump’s commitment to addressing our persistent trade deficit and to resolving structural issues in order to improve trade between our countries.

The delegation will now report back to receive guidance on the next steps.

 

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE

Looks to me like martial law: France moves to ban all protests as PM announces a major crackdown on yellow vests

(courtesy zerohedge)

France Moves To Ban All Protests As PM Announces Major Crackdown On Yellow Vests

France is signaling it’s making preparations for a massive new crackdown on the gilets jaunes or “yellow vests” anti-government protests that have gripped the country for seven weeks. A new law under consideration could make any demonstration illegal to begin with if not previously approved by authorities, in an initiative already being compared tothe pre-Maiden so-called “dictatorship law” in Ukraine.

In the name of reigning in the violence that has recently included torching structures along the prestigious Boulevard Saint Germain in Paris, and smashing through the gates of government ministry buildings, the French government appears set to enact something close to a martial law scenario prohibiting almost any protest and curtailing freedom of speech.

Fires set at structures along the famous Boulevard Saint Germain in Paris, France, January 5, 2019, via ReutersPrime Minister Edouard Philippe presented the new initiative to curtail the violence and unrest while targeting “troublemakers” and banning anonymity through wearing masks on French TV channel TF1 on Monday. He said the law would give police authority crack down on “unauthorized demonstrations” at a moment when police are already arresting citizens for merely wearing a yellow vest, even if they are not directly engaged in protests in some cases.

PM Philippe said the government would support a “new law punishing those who do not respect the requirement to declare [protests], those who take part in unauthorized demonstrations and those who arrive at demonstrations wearing face masks”.

Philippe’s tone during the statements was one of the proverbial “the gloves are off” as he described the onus would be on “the troublemakers, and not taxpayers, to pay for the damage caused” to businesses and property.

“Those who question our institutions will not have the last word,” he added.

However, if anything the protests have grown fiercer in response to any police crackdown or violence against demonstrators. Should all protests be banned under the new law, it could be the start of more violent riots gaining steam, as what began Nov. 17 as anger over fuel tax hikes has now turned into rage at President Emmanuel Macron and policies that seem to favor the urban elite.

Other yellow vest inspired protests previously broke out across Europe, and in perhaps a sign of things to come a video from The Netherlands of a woman pushing her baby in a stroller being arrested by police apparently for merely wearing a yellow vest is going viral.

Embedded video

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

Shocking Video of police brutality in The #Netherlands of a Women being arrested yesterday, because she was wearing an Yellow Vest, and did not wanted to take it off. while walking with her baby in the streets. #YellowVests SHAME ON YOU DUTCH POLICE OFFICERS! RT this to the world

In the video, police confront the woman in what appears a quiet neighborhood far away from any visible protest. Police were photographed alongside the baby on the street as the mother was dragged away.

Image via journalist Sotiri DimpinoudisWith the French prime minister now announcing coming draconian measures banning all protest, this is precisely the horrific scene that could begin to be repeated across France and the EU.

In total at least six people have died and over 1,400 people injured during the French protests, with thousands arrested weekly, according to international reports. Over the weekend some 50,000 protesters continued demonstrating in multiple cities, leading to significant clashes in Paris, Bordeaux and Rouen. A number of commentators have noted that though there appear fewer demonstrators compared to December, there appears a serious uptick in violent acts on the part of both demonstrators and police response.

end

FRANCE

Macron may trigger a huge debt crisis with his yellow vest crackdown as nobody will buy French bonds except the ECB who have already announced a shutdown on purchases of EU bonds on Jan 1.2019

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Macron May Trigger Debt Crisis With Yellow Vest Crackdown

Authored by Tom Luongo,

The Yellow Vests have reached critical mass. And the movement has now created the perfect storm for President Emmanuel Macron.

He can no longer ignore it, even though he tried to do so. And his lack of understanding of the situation as well as his open contempt for his opposition has placed him in a political vice.

Ignoring the problem will only make him look weaker and more disinterested. He could address the situation, put France first and step aside for new elections, which is the decent thing to do.

But, he’s chosen the predictable third option, crack down on the protesters in a futile show of strength. Authoritarians react to challenges like clockwork.

Disobedience is met with violence. More disobedience is met with more violence.

Before last weekend’s Act VIII protests Macron had one of the Yellow Vests original organizers, Éric Drouet, a truck driver, arrested and released pending a trial for “organizing an undeclared demonstration” while meeting with friends at a restaurant.

Into the midst of this come the Italian Dynamic Duo of Salvini and Di Maio, leaders of the two Euroskeptic parties which make up the ruling coalition there. They both encouraged the Yellow Vests to continue to pressure the French government into reform.

All Philippe’s government could do was respond with “sweep your own door.” Ooh, do you feel the burn from that one!

And after Yellow Vests targeted both the Bank of France in Rouen and the National Assembly in Paris, Macron’s government has finally come out of hiding to announce even stronger crackdowns on these protests.

But Macron himself couldn’t do it. If he did it would simply spark an even more extreme reaction. So, at this point Prime Minister Edouard Philippe is handling the bad PR duties informing everyone that even more crackdowns are coming on these protests.

Because order and all of that.

But, the important take away from this announcement of further crackdowns is that this should only make things worse for Macron and Philippe. And it will further destabilize French society as over-worked (and seriously under-paid) police are asked to do more.

Remember, the French police donned their own yellow vests at one point complaining that they hadn’t been paid for the over-time they’ve put in to “control” these protests by stoking further violence.

If France falls into complete political chaos it will eventually force equity and bond markets to pull their heads out of the sand and see the truth for what it is, that Europe is not the model of future stability just because Macron, Merkel and Super Mario Draghi say it is.

A call for a further crackdown against protests is the same response as the new EU laws on internet speech and dissemination of memes, Articles 11 and 13, they are attempts to stop open dissent against a distant and uninvolved leadership.

The Yellow Vests in France have made the cognitive leap that Italians did in last year’s elections. That the EU is a scam and all of its policies were designed to do exactly what its done — impoverish the working classes, enrich the aristocracy and enforce it through a Byzantine bureaucracy that makes the world of Terry Gilliam’s Brazil look like a Toyota factory floor.

A France on general strike, paralyzed by political turmoil and a government at war with itself, even if Macron steps aside, will call into serious question the future viability of the EU and the euro.

This is why Salvini and Di Maio’s support of the Yellow Vests is so important, it provides another vector of attack on the EU which they eventually cannot ignore.

 

*  *  *

Please support the production of independent and alternative

UK
It sure looks like the entire globe is freezing in growth. Today it is UK auto sales which have plunged the most since the financial crisis of 2008
(courtesy zerohedge)

“This is a Wake-Up Call”: UK Auto Sales Plunge Most Since The Financial Crisis

The global automobile collapse that we have been covering in-depth over the past year is continuing apace, with the shockwave most recently hitting the United Kingdom. Sales of new cars in the UK fell at the steepest rate since the financial crisis, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. The numbers were lower due to consumer uncertainty regarding Brexit and the falling popularity of diesel vehicles.

Registrations in the United Kingdom were down 6.8% to 2.37 million vehicles in 2018, according to the SMMT. Diesel vehicle sales were down a massive 30% and gasoline powered models were up 8.7%, showcasing a shifting trend. Offsetting this plunge, electric cars and hybrids were up double digits, posting 21% gains for the year.

But overall registrations dropped in the mid single digits and the SMMT predicts a further 2.4% reduction in new car sales in the United Kingdom this year. The fall for 2018 was at the high-end of estimates provided by the SMMT and it’s the second year in a row of sales falling. Registrations were down 5.7% in 2017.

The CEO of SMMT, Mike Hawes, stated: “The industry is facing ever-tougher environmental targets against a backdrop of political and economic uncertainty that is weakening demand so these figures should act as a wake-up call for policy makers.”

As a reminder, heading into 2019, we recently reported that Morgan Stanley predicted the first global auto sales volume drop in nearly a decade.  The bank’s auto analyst Adam Jonas predicted that global auto sales would be down 0.3% year over year in 2019 and that many consensus estimates across the industry are far too optimistic.

In a note released last week, Jonas predicted “lower guidance” coming out of Detroit automakers at the same time that the global auto market sees its first volume drop since 2009. And despite consensus forecasts predicting revenue and margin growth across the board, Morgan Stanley generally defied the trend, reiterating its cautious view on the US auto sector.

Jonas expects global volume in 2019 to fall to 82.1 million units versus 82.4 million units in 2018. His team also expects higher input costs, combined with rising rates and rising R&D expense, to further pressure 2019 numbers. Aside from the obvious (lack of volume growth), he predicts tariff related costs will still be an overhang for automakers heading into the new year.

Here is a full chart showing Morgan Stanley’s predictions versus consensus estimates:

Morgan Stanley also believes that industry consensus for 2019 earnings is too bullish. Currently, the consensus is for all companies to grow revenues by 1% and EBITDA by more than 3%, which implies a 24 basis points EBITDA margin expansion. Instead, Morgan Stanley expects flat revenues and EBITDA down 1%, which would signify a 13 basis point contraction of EBITDA margins.

Morgan Stanley believes that the Detroit Auto Show is going to be where management teams take the opportunity to guide lower. The show starts on January 14.

END

UK

another embarrassing defeat for Theresa May as they pass an amendment which will probably kill her Brexit deal

(courtesy zerohedge)

In Another Embarrassing Defeat, Commons Passes Amendment To Help Kill May’s Brexit Deal

Update: It’s looking increasingly likely that Commons Speaker John Bercow’s impudence in defying May and her government will not go unpunished.

The BBC is reporting that a motion of no confidence in Bercow – who has been accused of ignoring Commons rules in allowing MPs to vote on the Grieve amendment – is likely.

Sam Coates Times

@SamCoatesTimes

NEW

BBC Mark D’Arcy reports a motion of no confidence in the Speaker “looks pretty certain” https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-parliaments-46810616 

John Bercow

How Bercow’s ruling could change Brexit

John Bercow’s decision to allow a vote on a rebel Tory amendment is the biggest thing he has ever done.

bbc.com

 

Following Theresa May’s dramatic defeat on Tuesday when 20 Tory rebels helped pass an amendment to a finance bill that effectively eliminated the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, Parliament has taken another step toward wresting power over the Brexit process away from May and her government by passing another amendment that would require May to call another vote on her unpopular Brexit plan should it be defeated during a planned ‘meaningful vote’ next week.

The controversial “Grieve amendment” – which was opposed by May’s government (she had been planning on a three-week gap to whip up votes or come up with a ‘Plan B’ should next week’s vote fail) – passed with 308 votes in favor and 297 against. The amendment was named after the Tory MP – Dominic Grieve – who initially proposed it. Tory MP Oliver Letwin also helped lead the push for the vote.

The vote will effectively prevent May from running out the clock to Brexit Day, which was believed to be her primary tactic for coercing MPs to support her deal.

May

As the BBC pointed out, Wednesday’s vote increases the likelihood of another Brexit referendum.

Wednesday’s amendment passed thanks to an alliance between Labour and Tory MPs after May’s critics accused her of increasing the risk of a ‘no-Brexit’ scenario.

“The government’s decision to delay the meaningful vote has run down the clock and increased the risk of a no-deal Brexit,” said Labour’s shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer.

“If the prime minister’s Brexit deal is defeated next week, she must return to Parliament as soon as possible and give MPs a real say on what happens next.”

ERG leader and prominent Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg said the amendment wouldn’t affect the UK’s scheduled departure from the EU on 29 March (though that still remains to be seen).

“It merely requires a motion to be tabled not even debated.”

The vote comes ahead of five days of debate over May’s plan.

Commons Speaker John Bercow is facing accusations that he broke procedural rules by calling for a vote on the amendment, per the BBC.

Commons Speaker John Bercow faced an angry backlash from some Conservative MPs over his decision to allow MPs to vote on the issue.

The MPs claim Mr Bercow broke Commons rules and ignored the advice of his own clerks.

Commons leader Andrea Leadsom was among MPs to challenge his ruling in a series of points of order after Prime Minister’s Questions.

Critics also argued that the business motion to which the amendment was attached shouldn’t have been amendable, and that the speaker was “breaking with precedent.”

For his part, Bercow said he had made an “honest judgement” after consulting his clerks, but rejected calls from Andrea Leadsom to release the legal advice he had received.

Bercow said he was “not setting himself up against the government but championing the rights of the House of Commons” – and that MPs were free to vote against the amendment if they didn’t like it.

May has renewed her push to whip up votes for her deal this week, though with the DUP remaining opposed to the deal, saying they would reject any “cosmetic” changes offered by the EU on the Irish backstop, it’s unlikely that she will manage to tilt the scales in her favour. Meanwhile, Labour has revived threats to call a vote of no confidence in the government if May’s vote fails.

In summary, May’s insistence that the only options available are her deal, a hard Brexit, or no Brexit is looking increasingly meaningless. And MPs are moving to push through their vision for a ‘Plan B’ – though there’s no clear indication that another arrangement would be accepted by the EU.

END

GERMANY

My goodness:  The prosecutors in the Deutsche bank tax evasion case (Panama Papers) had 900 clients that evaded German tax. This is going to hurt Deutsche bank considerably

(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Prosecutors Seize Massive Client List During ‘Panama Papers’ Raid

Prosecutors in Frankfurt seized a list of more than 900 Deutsche Bank clients in a tax evasion case known commonly as the “Panama Papers,” a set of leaked documents which resulted in a raid at the German bank’s headquarters in November, according to Bloomberg.

The list is said to contain names of individuals and entities mostly located outside Germany, while the raid was focused on the role of a former Deutsche Bank wealth management entity located in the British Virgin Islands.

The Panama Papers showed that Deutsche Bank employees may have helped customers set up off-shore companies in tax havens, prosecutors said at the time. Those companies were allegedly involved in tax evasion, they said, adding that 900 clients were allegedly served via the unit. Prosecutors also seized extensive data on paper and electronically, the people familiar with the matter said.

The footage of rows of police cars parked in front of the bank’s two downtown Frankfurt towers in November fueled concerns about potentially expensive legal risks and sent the share price to an all-time low. –Bloomberg

Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sweing said he was surprised at the raid, saying in December that he thought the case was considered closed, having addressed it in “close cooperation with supervising authorities” in 2016 when the Panama Papers were leaked.

Felix Hufeld, head of Germany’s financial supervisor Bafin, said a year ago that German banks investigated in the Panama Papers probe had “largely” complied with existing money-laundering rules

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

turkey/usa

the Turkish newspaper is reading Trump incorrectly:  They state that a “soft coup” against Trump is underway and that is why he is slowing down the process of his removal of troops from Syria

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“A Soft Coup Against Donald Trump Is Underway” Declares Major Turkish Daily

Turkey is going on the attack against John Bolton following his weekend antics in the Middle East, which most recently included being snubbed by Erdogan in the Turkish capital. Bolton has now gone “rogue” and tried to undercut Trump’s Syria pullout decision by setting his own preconditions, writes the editorial board of Turkey’s most visible pro-government English language daily newspaper.

The pro-Erdogan, AKP-supporting Daily Sabah says “a soft coup against Donald Trump” is underway, but that Trump’s “rogue” National Security Adviser got a “rude awakening” upon visiting Turkey yesterday:

If U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton thought yesterday’s visit was going to be a walk in the park, he must have had a rude awakening thanks to the lukewarm reception in the Turkish capital Ankara. In retrospect, it was probably a bad idea for Bolton to go rogue and try to impose conditions on the United States withdrawal from Syria. Keeping in mind that Turkey was already getting ready to send its troops to northern Syria before U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement last month, it is time for Washington to accept that it isn’t negotiating with Turkey from a position of power.

NatSec adviser John Bolton, Gen. Joe Dunford and Amb. Jim Jeffrey departing from the presidential compound in Ankara after briefer than expected meetings with Turkish defense counterparts, via Vivian Salama The op-ed declares case closed for any doubts about a fierce resistance seeking to subvert Trump within his own administration:

If there was ever any doubt that the resistance within the Trump administration wasn’t real, what happened in light of Trump’s decision to leave disproved the skeptics. Bolton and several other members of the Trump administration are committing a serious crime by preventing the current president of the United States from reversing his predecessor’s misguided decisions in the Syrian theater. What is happening today isn’t a policy debate, but a direct challenge to American democracy by unelected paper-pushers. Indeed, “many of the senior officials in his own administration are working diligently from within to frustrate” President Trump’s agenda.

Bolton is pushing for Trump to hold off on withdrawing 2,000+ US troops from Syria until it had received assurances from Turkey that the Turks wouldn’t attack US-backed Kurds in the region. Bolton revealed the change in direction during a Sunday interview, ahead of a planned trip abroad where he will visit Turkey and Israel to discuss the terms of the US withdrawal; however, the degree to which Trump has personally signed off on Bolton’s “preconditions” remains unclear, and for the past week contradictory messages have been issued from both Pentagon and admin officials.

Instead of meeting with Bolton, Erdogan used a prescheduled speech in parliament to criticize American proposals that the Kurdish group play a key role in Syria after the US withdraws, according to Bloomberg.

Liz Sly

@LizSly

Turkey goes on the attack against Bolton: accuses him of going “rogue” and seeking to undercut Trump’s decision to pull out of Syria by setting his own conditions. “A soft coup against Trump is underway.” https://www.dailysabah.com/editorial/2019/01/08/a-soft-coup-against-donald-trump 

A soft coup against Donald Trump

A soft coup against Donald Trump

If U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton thought yesterday’s visit was going to be a walk in the park, he must have had a rude awakening thanks to the…

dailysabah.com

Notably, on Monday President Trump slammed a New York Times piece that heavily quoted Bolton, suggesting new preconditions on the announced Syria draw down, and that Bolton had effectively “rolled back” Trump’s decision to “rapidly withdraw from Syria.”

Trump blasted the Times via Twitter, saying the newspaper published “a very inaccurate story on my intentions for Syria,” and that the policy that remains is “No different from my original statements, we will be leaving at a proper pace while at the same time continuing to fight ISIS and doing all else that is prudent and necessary!”.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Failing New York Times has knowingly written a very inaccurate story on my intentions on Syria. No different from my original statements, we will be leaving at a proper pace while at the same time continuing to fight ISIS and doing all else that is prudent and necessary!…..

The Daily Sabah continues, declaring a “soft coup is underway”:

A soft coup against Trump is underway in the United States. In recent days, anonymous U.S. officials, like the author of the infamous op-ed in The New York Times, have repeatedly lied to the American people in an attempt to force Trump to walk back from his comments about Syria.

And further, the op-ed declares the writing is on the wall in terms of US failing influence in Syria and over the Kurdish question, and calls on resistors within the administration to “wake up”:

Bolton and other leaders of the “resistance” must stop beating a dead horse and wake up to the fact that they are not negotiating with Turkey from a position of power. The Turkish government had unveiled its plan to target PKK/YPG targets in northern Syria long before Trump decided to withdraw from Syria. If senior U.S. officials keep making up new rules as they go, the Turks will run out of patience.

The observation that US negotiators have lost any position of power certainly played out yesterday when a defeated looking and frowning US delegation, appearing disunited among themselves, was photographed exiting the presidential compound in Ankara.

The astute geopolitical blog Moon of Alabama rightly concluded“And with that, Bolton was humiliated and the issue of the U.S. retreat from Syria kicked back to Trump.”

end
IRAN/USA
Iran is holding an American who went to Iran to visit his girl friend
(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran Says It Is Holding A US Navy Veteran In Prison

Iran said on Wednesday it had arrested, and was holding U.S. Navy veteran Michael R. White, 46, of California at a prison in the country, making him the first American known to be detained under President Donald Trump’s administration according to AP.

While relations between the US and Iran had entered a holding pattern in recent months as Trump shifted his attention to the border wall situation, White’s detention adds new pressure to the rising tension between Iran and the U.S., which under Trump has escalated, culminating with the US pulling out of Obama’s nuclear deal with world powers.

While the circumstances of White’s detention remain unclear, Iran has in the past used its detention of Westerners and dual nationals as leverage in negotiations. The semi-official Tasnim news agency, close to the country’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, reported the confirmation citing Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi.

“An American citizen was arrested in the city of Mashhad some time ago and his case was conveyed to the U.S administration on the first days” of his incarceration, Ghasemi was quoted as saying.

Vakilabad prison in Mashhad

White’s mother was quoted by the NYT saying she learned three weeks ago that her son is alive and being held at an Iranian prison. His arrest was first reported by an online news service by Iranian expatriates who interviewed a former Iranian prisoner who said he met White at Vakilabad Prison in Mashhad in October.

White’s mother, Joanne White, had told the Times that her 46-year-old son, who lives in Imperial Beach, California, went to Iran to see his girlfriend and had booked a July 27 flight back home to San Diego via the United Arab Emirates. She filed a missing person report with the State Department after he did not board the flight. She added that he had been undergoing treatment for a neck tumor and has asthma. She said her son had visited Iran “five or six times” previously.

White’s incarceration was first reported on January 7 by Iran Wire, an online news service run by Iranian expatriates. Iran Wire’s report was based on an interview with a former Iranian prisoner who was quoted as saying he had met White at Vakilabad Prison in the city of Mashhad in October. The prisoner, identified as Irvar Farhadi, was briefly held at the same facility as White in Mashhad, Iran Wire reported according to Radio Free Europe.

Farhadi told Iran Wire that White had met an Iranian woman online and traveled to Iran several times to see her.

On his third visit, when White and his girlfriend were about to fly to Turkey, he was arrested at Hasheminejad Airport in Mashhad, Farhadi said.

White is not alone as there are four other known American citizens being held in Iran.

Iranian-American Siamak Namazi and his 82-year-old father Baquer, a former UNICEF representative who served as governor of Iran’s oil-rich Khuzestan province under the U.S.-backed shah, are both serving 10-year sentences on espionage charges. Iranian-American art dealer Karan Vafadari and his Iranian wife, Afarin Neyssari, received 27-year and 16-year prison sentences, respectively. Chinese-American graduate student Xiyue Wang was sentenced to 10 years in prison for allegedly “infiltrating” the country while doing doctoral research on Iran’s Qajar dynasty.

Iranian-American Robin Shahini was released on bail in 2017 after staging a hunger strike while serving an 18-year prison sentence for “collaboration with a hostile government.” Shahini is believed to still be in Iran. Also in an Iranian prison is Nizar Zakka, a U.S. permanent resident from Lebanon who advocated for internet freedom and has done work for the U.S. government. He was sentenced to 10 years on espionage-related charges. Former FBI agent Robert Levinson, who vanished in Iran in 2007 while on an unauthorized CIA mission, remains missing as well. Iran says that Levinson is not in the country and that it has no further information about him, though his family holds Tehran responsible for his disappearance. Tehran now says it has no information about him.

Controversially, in January 2016, Iran released four Americans as part of a prisoners swap, including Jason Rezaian, The Washington Post’s Tehran bureau chief, Saeed Abedini, a pastor from Idaho, and Amir Hekmati, a former Marine from Flint, Michigan. In exchange, the United States released several Iranians held on sanctions violations. Additionally, the Obama administration secretly funneled approximately $56 billion to Iran to secure the transfer.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Again, we are receiving information that the entire globe has seized.  Apple for the second time in 2 months has just slashed its iphone production

(courtesy zerohedge)

Apples Slashes iPhone Production For Second Time In 2 Months

In the latest batch of bad news for Apple and its suppliers, Nikkei reported late Tuesday that, for the second time in two months, the world’s formerly biggest company has cut production on its newest batch of smartphones (which it unveiled during a widely panned product launch back in September) as slowing demand for iPhones in China continues to take a toll on Apple’s sales.

The news came one week after Apple triggered a broad-based market rout complete with FX flash crashes, when it lowered its quarterly revenue guidance for the first time in 16 years.

Apple has cut its production plan for the new iPhones by roughly 10% over the next three months, in the latest sign that the US smartphone maker is expecting an even bigger slowdown than previously believed. The request was made before Apple lowered its revenue guidance.

t three months, in the latest sign that the US smartphone maker is expecting an even bigger slowdown than previously believed. The request was made before Apple lowered its revenue guidance.

China

A source cited by Nikkei said that the plan called for an overall cut in planned production volume of both old and new iPhones to about 40 million to 43 million units for the January-March quarter from an earlier projection of 47 million to 48 million units. This drop is equivalent to a yoy contraction of more than 20% from the 52.21 million units Apple sold between January and March 2018. To be sure, the size of the actual decline could diverge somewhat as deviations in inventories and demand are factored in.

Apple upset investors during its last earnings call by revealing that it would stop breaking out iPhone shipments beginning in the October-December quarter,  a decision that the company tried to spin as an effort to shift the focus on its other products and software offerings.

Apple is struggling with a global smartphone market that has largely plateaued, as well as falling sales in China that many have attributed to the rise of domestic handset makers (like No. 2 global smartphone maker Huawei) and a widening boycott of US products. A BofA chart from earlier this week demonstrated the impact of this boycott by showing that Chinese consumers are staying away from US products due to the trade war (a boycott that hasn’t been reciprocated in the US).

IMPORTS

With all of this in mind, it’s hardly surprising that Apple CEO Tim Cook tried to shift the investing public’s focus away from the iPhone and toward Apple’s sales of other products and services during an interview with CNBC, with Cook touting $100 billion in revenue not from the iPhone.

“In this last quarter, if you take everything outside of iPhone, it grew at 19 percent, 19 percent on a huge business,” Cook said.

Whether or not the market will manage to swallow this narrative will ultimately be the deciding factor behind whether Apple retakes the $1 trillion market cap threshold any time soon.

Meanwhile, maybe – just maybe – it’s time for Apple to consider cutting prices on its iPhones instead of continually increasing the ASP as the world draws closer to a recession with every passing day.

END
And now the second bad news of the day for Apple: they are cutting prices
(courtesy zerohedge)

Even More Bad News For Apple

For those who thought that the latest news that Apple was slashing iPhone production again, this time by 10%, for the second time in 2 months was as bad as it would get, we have some bad news.

Earlier, when commenting on the latest production cut, we had a modest proposal: “Maybe, just maybe, they should consider cutting prices?”

zerohedge@zerohedge

Apple Cutting Output of 3 New iPhone Models by 10%, Nikkei Says

Maybe, just maybe, they should consider cutting prices?

Any other day, such a proposition would be apocryphal: after all Apple never makes wholesale price cuts – after all the key part of its cache and “coolness factor” is that its products are so unnecessarily expensive they are a status symbol.

Only in this time it appears that Apple listened to our “advice”, and according to the National Business Daily, prices of iPhone models at some Chinese vendors in Shenzhen have been cut. According to the paper, wholesale vendors in electronics product markets in Shenzhen city received price change notice from the U.S. on Jan. 8. The resulting price cut was for models including iPhone XR, iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus, iPhone X, iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max; Separately, the prices of new iPhone devices started to drop in a wholesale market in Shenzhen, where the iPhone XR had biggest price cut of 450 yuan ($66.02) at channel vendors.

“What does that matter?” Apple bulls will counter: after all, the world’s formerly biggest company is no longer a product company (at least since the shocking announcement that it would stop disclosing iPhone sales numbers late last year), and is instead only focusing on services.

Well, there is a problem here too, because as Nomura’s Jefrey Kvaal writes, Apple last week “offered a bit of a paradox.

Specifically, Apple announced record F1Q Services revenue that easily exceeded consensus, before offering a “rather uninspiring” account of its holiday week Services revenue growth.  However, on Tuesday night Apple unexpectedly restated FY18 Services revenues for ASC 606, and as a result, Kvaal concludes that “the uninspiring view is the correct one” as Apple missed in Services too; this in turn has prompted the Nomura analyst to retain his view that “Services growth is in part dependent on now wobbling iPhone unit volumes.”

Here are the additional details from Kvaal’s note:

  • Wait…is Services good or bad? Apple noted Services revenue of $10.8bn as a bright spot in last week’s negative preannouncement. This exceeded consensus estimates by $300mn and represented 28% YoY growth.  Oddly, the very next day, Apple announced soft and seemingly contradictory holiday week App Store sales growth of 20%. New Year’s Day growth was only 7%. Please see AAPL: And In Other News, Services Underwhelms for more details.
  • Oh. It’s bad. Services revenue has slowed to ~20%, and missed.  The new ASC 606 standard required Apple to reclassify $2.6bn in 2018 revenue (from Apple Maps, Siri, and free iCloud) from Products to Services.  This adds $620mn to F1Q19 and lowers the Services growth rate to 18%. This is a miss; consensus had expected 24% growth.  F4Q18 Services growth was 27%.
  • Our Services estimates now imply a 2019 slowdown. Our FY19 Services forecasts now imply a growth rate of 20% rather than 28% given $2.6bn in higher revenue to FY18’s base. This aligns closer to recent App Store growth of 18% in F1Q based on SensorTower’s data. China’s decision to re-start gaming reviews should lift growth modestly – gaming is 80% of China App Store sales – though Apple’s holiday sales figures did not show as much improvement as hoped.
  • Proof point that Services is not independent of Units. We believe it fair to argue Apple’s iPhone unit wobbles are slowing its Services business.  Apple’s installed base growth has slowed from ~15% to ~8%.  App Store growth has obviously slowed; we believe Apple Care revenue is also suffering from lower unit volumes.
  • A bit of an unforced error.  Our preference would have been for a simultaneous disclosure of the unit weakness, holiday week sales, and accounting adjustments.

Summarizing, the “Kvaal call”, the Nomura analysts concludes that “It’s not just units but services too.” Of course, looking at the AAPL stock price over the past week, which has rebounded strongly on hopes of an imminent US-China trade deal (which we now know isn’t coming) and more stimulus by the Fed and FOMC, and recouped much of last Tuesday’s shocking revenue guidance cut, one would think that it is only smooth sailing from this point on for Tim Cook. One would be dead wrong.

end

 

 

7  OIL ISSUES

Another dagger into the heart of USA dollar hegemony:  India now begins to pay for Iranian oil in rupees. You will call that India has received a waiver form the USA to buy Iranian oil for 6 months past the initial deadline

(courtesy zerohedge)

India Begins Paying For Iranian Oil In Rupees

Three months ago, in Mid-October, Subhash Chandra Garg, economic affairs secretary at India’s finance ministry, said that India still hasn’t worked out yet a payment system for continued purchases of crude oil from Iran, just before receiving a waiver to continue importing oil from Iran in its capacity as Iran’s second largest oil client after China.

That took place amid reports that India had discussed ditching the U.S. dollar in its trading of oil with Russia, Venezuela, and Iran, instead settling the trade either in Indian rupees or under a barter agreement. One thing was certain: India wanted to keep importing oil from Iran, because Tehran offers generous discounts and incentives for Indian buyers at a time when the Indian government is struggling with higher oil prices and a weakening local currency that additionally weighs on its oil import bill.

Fast forward to the new year when we learn that India has found a solution to the problem, and has begun paying Iran for oil in rupees, a senior bank official said on Tuesday, the first such payments since the United States imposed new sanctions against Tehran in November. An industry source told Reuters that India’s top refiner Indian Oil Corp and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals have made payments for Iranian oil imports.

To be sure, India, the world’s third biggest oil importer, has wanted to continue buying oil from Iran as it offers free shipping and an extended credit period, while Iran will use the rupee funds to mostly pay for imports from India.

“Today we received a good amount from some oil companies,” Charan Singh, executive director at state-owned UCO Bank told Reuters. He did not disclose the names of refiners or how much had been deposited.

Hinting that it wants to extend oil trade with Tehran, New Delhi recently issued a notification exempting payments to the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) for crude oil imports from steep withholding taxes, enabling refiners to clear an estimated $1.5 billion in dues.

Meanwhile, in lieu of transacting in dollars, Iran is devising payment mechanisms including barter with trading partners like India, China and Russia following a delay in the setting up of a European Union-led special purpose vehicle to facilitate trade with Tehran, its foreign minister Javad Zarif said earlier on Tuesday.

As Reuters notes, in the previous round of U.S. sanctions, India settled 45% of oil payments in rupees and the remainder in euros but this time it has signed deal with Iran to make all payments in rupees as New Delhi wanted to fix its trade balance with Tehran.  Case in point: Indian imports from Iran totalled about $11 billion between April and November, with oil accounting for about 90 percent.

Singh said Indian refiners had previously made payments to 15 banks, but they will now be making deposits into the accounts of only 9 Iranian lenders as one had since closed and the U.S has imposed secondary sanctions on five others.

end

Who Are The Biggest Winners In The East-Med Gas Game?

1. Turkey as they never recognized the treaty of 1974 and they believe that the gas fields are theirs.  They have threatened to attack Cyprus if the gas pipeline is built.
2. Lebanon/Hezbollah: these guys always threaten and with their missiles, they can hit the major fields.
(courtesy Global Risk/OIl Price.com

Authored by Global Risk Insights via OilPrice.com,

The EastMed gas pipeline between Cyprus, Greece and Israel will revolutionise the economies and geo-politics of the region. The project comes from an emerging alliance between the three countries who must move forward cautiously in the face of neighbouring States’ opposition.

Eastern Mediterranean: the Bigger Picture

On December 20th, the Prime Ministers of Cyprus, Greece and Israel converged on the southern Israeli city of Beersheba. All three parties publicly committed to signing a high-level agreement in the near future. Such an agreement would solidify one of the longest and deepest underwater gas pipeline in the world.

It is expected to deliver approximately 10 billion cubic meters (BCM) of natural gas to the European Union (EU) through Greece and Italy. The EU is keen to support the project and diversify its natural gas imports away from the heavily sanctioned Russian Federation and declining North Sea gas production. The EastMed project would fulfil roughly 10-15% the EU’s projected natural gas needs. The United States is also supporting the project as it sees the growing trilateral alliance as a bulwark of democracy and stability in a largely authoritarian and war-torn region.

A New Regional Alliance

This development is also the culmination of an alliance that has been years in the making. The last decade has seen growing cooperation between Cyprus, Greece and Israel as all three countries have been supporting one another in various strategic areas. This includes deepening military ties in the face of an increasingly unstable and conflict prone Eastern Mediterranean. These developments are specifically aimed at Turkey, a neighboring state that has become increasingly aggressive and authoritarian. Turkey is threatening to derail the project within the context of ongoing Cypriot Conflict.

The project will be the culmination of a strategic alliance between three smaller countries who are faced with increasingly more aggressive competitors and crisis’s in the region. Turkey, Russia and Iran are all increasingly active in the region looking to forward their own interests. As the United States continues to play less of a role on the ground Cyprus, Greece and Israel will be able to create positive reinforcement through bilateral relations or the newly created secretariateconomically, politically and militarily.

Who Stands to Benefit?

The domestic economies of the individual states within the trilateral alliance stand to benefit immensely from the project. Cyprus is estimated to have roughly 4.5 BCM of natural gas in the Aphrodite Field which is currently being developed within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), a huge sum. Israel is estimated to have significantly larger amounts within its EEZ in the form of the Leviathan and Tamar fields. Both of these small countries will benefit immensely from being able to export to the massive EU market through Greece. The latter’s own economy will likely see a boost from the investment needed to support the infrastructure of the pipeline. There is also the possibility of linking the pipeline to the operational Egyptian Zohr Field.

The EU will benefit from being able to diversify its energy sources. It would allow the EU to guarantee some energy security to its Member States as North Sea production falls. An over reliance on Russian natural gas also places the EU in a difficult position, because it continues sanctioning Russia over its activities in Ukraine and the meddling in the democratic processes of EU Member States. The EU will likely try to lower market prices on natural gas which have been steadily rising the last few years. In the long run, the EastMed Pipeline may provide nearly double the expected output of 10 BCM for export if ongoing offshore exploration provides positive outcomes.

Who is Missing Out?

Turkey and Russia are both set to lose out given current developments. Greece and Turkey have a historically difficult relationship which has recently flared up within the context of the 2016 Coup and Refugee Crisis. Cyprus and Turkey continue to butt headsover the northern half of the island following the 1974 War. Israel and Turkey were once close allies. The rise of Erdogan and the AK Party over a decade ago made Turkey a major patron of Hamas. The Mavi Marmara Incident has contributed to the deterioration in ties between the two sides. Turkey would have been the natural route for the Pipeline, but the ongoing disputes show why this will never happen.

Russia is the main supplier of natural gas to the EU and a historical ally of Greece. If the EU is able to continue to diversify its energy needs away from the Russian gas giants – of which the EastMed is a small but important first step – Russia will lose leverage over the EU within the context of both gas prices and geopolitical issues between the two sides. The historically close relationship between Russia and Greece is also in jeopardy. The pipeline project is heavily supported by the United States; when we couple this with Russia and Turkey’s warming ties, Russia appears to be losing a historically important relationship in an increasingly strategic region.

Possible Obstacles

Two major obstacles to the project are present in the form of the Lebanese based Hezbollah and Turkey. Hezbollah is Israel’s arch-foe, the two sides fought an all-out war in 2006, a conflict neither side wishes to repeat. This is something Hezbollah is attempting to use for its own advantage threatening to strike at Israel’s sea-based gas fields. Israel is preparing for this outcome, but Hezbollah’s missile arsenal is vast and powerful; any escalation in conflict, especially given the ongoing Operation Northern Shield may lead to disruptions in the project.

President Erdogan has made it very clear that he is vehemently against any development of the Cypriot gas fields within the EEZ without some form of resolution to the conflict. This has materialized with Turkish naval action in the past and with the beginning of own explorations in the EEZ. Turkey has used military force in the past and ongoing developments in the region -specifically the US withdrawal from Syria following a phone call with Erdogan – has emboldened Turkey. Aggressive action by Turkey to safeguard its own interests cannot be discounted.

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela

 

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1449 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108;91  UP 0.157 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…DEADLY TO OUR YEN SHORTERS

GBP/USA 1.2730     DOWN    0.0005  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3237 DOWN .0008 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.149/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED  UP 17.88 POINTS OR 0.71% 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 586.87 POINTS OR 2.27%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.95%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 220.03 POINTS OR 1.10% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 586.87 POINTS OR 2.27% 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.88 PTS OR 0.71%

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.95%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 220.02 POINTS OR 1.10% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1281.15

silver:$15.61

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.73% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.02 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 95.86 DOWN 4 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.77% DOWN 5    in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.03%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.48% DOWN 3   IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.88 DOWN 7     POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 133 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.28%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.60% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1531 UP   .0073 or 73 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 108.31 DOWN  0.449 OR 45 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2769 UP .0031( POUND DOWN 31  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 25 basis points to 1.3219

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.8160-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8162(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4816

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.03%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.73 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.03 UP 4  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.37 DOWN 54 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 45.03 OR 0.66%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 89.34 POINTS OR 0.80%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 40.31 POINTS OR 0.84%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 23.70 POINTS OR 0.27%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 179.02 POINTS OR 0.94%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 52.01 12:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 60.98 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.74  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.17 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 17 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.4816 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.28 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :52.31

 

BRENT :  61.35

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.72%…

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.01%/

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1552 ( UP 96 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.02 DOWN 0.731 (YEN UP 73 BASIS POINTS/..deadly to yen shorters

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.15 DOWN  76 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2802 UP 64 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4891

the Russian rouble:  66.74 UP .16 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 16 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3215 UP 30 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8160  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8099 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.28%

 

The Dow closed UP 91.54 POINTS OR 0.38%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 60.08 POINTS OR 0.87%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.91 CLOSED DOWN 0.56 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.782%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/

 

FROM 2.797

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Dovish-er Fed Sparks Biggest Short-Squeeze Since Mar09 Lows

The last four days have been the biggest short-squeeze since March 2009

This won’t end well…

.

China

China roller coastered overnight (after a dead quiet Tuesday) with a panic bid in the morning session and a dump in the afternoon…

 

European stocks extended Tuesday’s gains with Italy continuing to lead on the week…

 

From the dovish-er than expected Fed minutes, gold is the biggest winner…

 

Another day, another incessant bid under the equity market on every dip… (some weakness late on as Trump walked out on Chuck and Nancy)…Trannies dramatically outperformed…BTFD is back!

Stocks are up 8 of the last 10 days now. Best start to a year since 2010.

Small Caps are up a stunning 14% from the Mnuchin Massacre Xmas Eve lows…


While the last 4 days are the biggest short-squeeze since the March 2009 lows, the squeeze off the Xmas Ever Mnuchin Massacre is unreal…

 

VIX and credit spreads collapsed further…

 

The dovish Fed minutes exaggerated the shifts in the yield curve on the day with the short-end outperforming (2Y -2bps) and long-end weak (+2bps)…

 

Steepening the yield curve…

 

And the expectations for Fed rate moves shifted very modestly dovish on the day (but well off the 26bps from Jan 3rd)…

 

The Dollar Index tumbled most since Nov 1st 2018 to its lowest since Sept 2018…

 

 

Cryptos continue to tread water…

 

Spot the odd one out…

 

Bull market for oil off the lows…

 

Gold in yuan bounced back into the green for 2019…

 

Finally, we note the total disconnect between the weaker dollar (dovish) and hawkish trend in market expectations for Fed rate hike this year…

END

market trading/

the dollar is getting pummeled

(courtesy zerohedge)

The Dollar Is Dumping

The US Dollar is plummeting this morning (despite a recent trend more hawkish in Fed rate shift expectations)…

Back to its lowest in three months…

 

According to Bloomberg data, this is the worst start to a year for the Bloomberg Dollar Index (broader than the DXY) on record.

 

END

FOMC MINUTES

FOMC Minutes Signal “Patient” Fed And Dovish Sentiment: “Downside Risks Increased”

As a reminder, the FOMC raised the fed funds rate target by 25bps in December, in line with the analyst median forecast.

The central bank also narrowed the trajectory of rate hikes going forward, now envisaging two hikes in 2019, and one in 2020 (previously it had seen three hikes in 2019 and one in 2020). Crucially, the FOMC lowered its estimate of the neutral rate (to 2.8% from 3.0%), and additionally, the central bank softened its guidance on future rate hikes, saying that “some further gradual increases” to rates (versus the previous “further gradual increases”), even as the market continues to expect that the Fed’s rate hike cycle is now over and even expects a rate cut in 2020. In terms of risks to the outlook, the Fed continues to see these as “roughly balanced”.

But the market is entirely rejecting The Fed’s messaging and today’s Minutes may hold some color for just how hawkish or dovish The Fed really is

And, since The Fed hiked rates in December, stock markets have turmoiled back to unchanged. However, one look at the chart below shows that it was in fact only stocks that were chaotic – the trend higher in bonds and bullion (and lower in the dollar) was relatively smooth…

And at the same time as stocks have yo-yo’d so has the market’s expectations for just how dovish The Fed will be this year…

In fact, the last week has seen almost all dovishness priced OUT from 2019.

And so all eyes are on the Minutes to see if the “not dovish enough” sentiment within the statement was watered down from a more (or less) dovish perspective in the actual meetings…

It seems the dovishness was deeper in the meeting:

  • *FED OFFICIALS SAW EXTENT, TIMING OF FUTURE HIKES AS LESS CLEAR
  • *MANY OFFICIALS FELT FED COULD BE PATIENT ON FURTHER RATE HIKES
  • *FED: A FEW OFFICIALS FAVORED NO RATE INCREASE AT DEC. MEETING
  • *FED: SOME OFFICIALS NOTED DOWNSIDE RISKS MAY HAVE INCREASED
  • (Harvey:  pretty dovish_

In other words, the Minutes revealed that the Fed took a more dovish approach to further rate increases than  the statement indicated.

“Many participants expressed the view that, especially in an environment of muted inflation pressures, the committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming,’’

And some of the key highlights:

On The Fed’s market-dependency:

Asset prices were volatile in recent weeks, reportedly reflecting a pullback from risk-taking by investors. In part, the deterioration in risk sentiment appeared to stem importantly from uncertainty about the state of trade negotiations between China and the United States. In addition, investors pointed to concerns about the global growth outlook, the unsettled state of Brexit negotiations, and uncertainties about the political situation in Europe.

On the specifics of the risks facing the U.S.:

“Participants discussed five distinct downside risks to the outlook, including: a sharper-than-expected decline in global growth; a faster fading of fiscal stimulus; heightened trade tensions; further tightening of financial conditions; and a greater-than-expected negative impact from monetary policy tightening so far.”

On the neutral rate :

“With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy. Against this backdrop many participants expressed the view that, especially in an environment of muted inflation pressures, the Committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming.”

On cautious stance:

“A number of participants noted that, before making further changes to the stance of policy, it was important for the Committee to assess factors such as how the risks that had become more pronounced in recent months might unfold and to what extent they would affect economic activity, and the effects of past actions to remove policy accommodation, which were likely still working their way through the economy.”

On FOMC members urging no rate hike in December:

“A few participants, however, favored no change in the target range at this meeting, judging that the absence of signs of upward inflation pressure afforded the Committee some latitude to wait and see how the data would develop amid the recent rise in financial market volatility and increased uncertainty about the global economic growth outlook.”

On the contrast between the economy and markets:

“In assessing the economic outlook, participants noted the contrast between the strength of incoming data on economic activity and the concerns about downside risks evident in financial markets and in reports from business contacts.”

On being even more data-dependent:

“With regard to the post meeting statement, members agreed to modify the phrase ‘the Committee expects that further gradual increases’ to read ‘the Committee judges that some further gradual increases.’ The use of the word ‘judges’ in the revised phrase was intended to better convey the data-dependency of the Committee’s decisions regarding the future stance of policy; the reference to ‘some’ further gradual increases was viewed as helping indicate that, based on current information, the Committee judged that a relatively limited amount of additional tightening likely would be appropriate.”

And yet, the “Powell put” is alive and well for a Fed that is increasingly attentive to volatility, or this is the Fed’s real “data dependency”:

Asset prices were volatile in recent weeks, reportedly reflecting a pullback from risk-taking by investors…  One-month option-implied volatility on the S&P 500 index–the VIX–increased over the period and corporate credit spreads widened, consistent with the selloff in equities… The pace of gross equity issuance through both seasoned and initial offerings moderated, consistent with the weakness and volatility in the stock market.

… financial markets were volatile and conditions had tightened over the intermeeting period, with sizable declines in equity prices and notably wider corporate credit spreads coinciding with a continued flattening of the Treasury yield curve; in part, these changes in financial conditions appeared to reflect greater concerns about the global economic outlook. Participants also reported hearing more frequent concerns about the global economic outlook from business contacts.

In their discussion of financial developments, participants agreed that financial markets had been volatile and financial conditions had tightened over the intermeeting period, as equity prices declined, corporate credit spreads widened, and the Treasury yield curve continued to flatten. Some participants commented that these developments may reflect an increased focus among market participants on tail risks such as a sharp escalation of trade tensions or could be a signal of a significant slowdown in the pace of economic growth in the future

And more on why the Fed is once again a seller of vol:

… contacts in a number of Districts appeared less upbeat than at the time of the November meeting, as concerns about a variety of factors–including trade policy, waning fiscal stimulus, slowing global economic growth, or financial market volatility–were reportedly beginning to weigh on business sentiment

On sliding inflation-expectations, also known as oil prices:

“Several participants remarked that longer-term TIPS-based inflation compensation had declined notably since November, concurrent with both falling oil prices and a deterioration in investor risk sentiment.”

And speaking of oil prices, the Fed is as clueless as everyone else what is dragging them lower:

“A couple of participants commented that the recent decline in oil prices could be a sign of a weakening in global demand…A couple of participants noted that the recent oil price decline could also be associated with increasing oil supply”

On the danger of the Effective Fed Funds rate rising above the IOER in the rate corridor:

“The staff noted that during the transition to a long-run operating regime with excess reserves below current levels, the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) could begin to rise a little above the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate as reserves in the banking system declined gradually to a level that the Committee judges to be most appropriate for efficient and effective implementation of policy.”

Speaking of the Fed’s Balance Sheet, here is why the Fed will be very leery of shrinking assets (and reserves) too much:

… reducing reserves to a point very close to the level at which the reserve demand curve begins to slope upward could lead to a significant increase in the volatility in short-term interest rates and require frequent sizable open market operations or new ceiling facilities to maintain effective interest rate control. These considerations suggested that it might be appropriate to instead provide a buffer of reserves sufficient to ensure that the Federal Reserve operates consistently on the flat portion of the reserve demand curve so as to promote the efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy.

… yet on the other hand:

 In discussing the long-run level of reserve liabilities, participants noted that it might be useful to explore ways to encourage banks to reduce their demand for reserves and to provide information to banks and the public about the likely long-run level of reserves.

Is Operation Twist about to make a return:

“Several participants noted that a portfolio of holdings weighted toward shorter maturities would provide greater flexibility to lengthen maturity if warranted by an economic downturn, while a couple of others noted that a portfolio with maturities that matched the outstanding Treasury market would have amore neutral effect on the market.”

And yet at the same time, some FOMC members discussed shrinking balance sheet even faster:

“With regard to the MBS portfolio, participants noted that the passive runoff of MBS holdings through principal paydowns would continue for many years after the size of the balance sheet had been normalized. Several participants commented on the possibility of reducing agency MBS holdings somewhat more quickly than the passive approach by implementing a program of very gradual MBS sales sometime after the size of the balance sheet had been normalized.”

Critically, the Fed says economic data is strong but market “data” is not. So which “data” is the “data-dependent” Fed responding when it pauses rate hikes?  

This new messaging fits with Powell who has already pivoted since the meeting (alongside his pals Yellen and Bernanke) to reassure markets that The Powell Put is struck almost as high as the Yellen Put.

*  *  *

Full Minutes Below (link)

end

 

 

market data/

USA consumer credit hits an all time high amid record student and auto loans. Both of these loans total basically 4 trillion dollars

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Consumer Credit Hits All Time High Amid Surge In Student And Auto Loans

After a surprising slump in the use of revolving debt in September, when US consumers unexpectedly paid down a total of $23 million (revised)on their credit cards, followed by a sharp rebound in credit card usage in October, moments ago the Fed reported that in November, the surge consumer credit continued, rising by $22.1 billion, above the $17.5 billion expected, after October’s whopping $25 billion increase as non-revolving credit surged by the most since December 2017. The surge in borrowing in November brought the total to $3.979 trillion, new all time high, largely on the back of a newfound love with auto and student loans.

After a brief, one-month dormancy in credit cards usage in September, American consumers have clearly returned to doing what they do best – spending money they don’t have – with revolving credit jumping by $4.8 billion, one month after it surged by $9.3 billion. The latest monthly increase brought the total credit card debt to a new all time high of $1.042 trillion.

But the big reason behind the November surge in consumer credit was nonrevolving credit, i.e. student and auto loans, which soared by $17.4 billion, the highest monthly total since 2017, and bringing the nonrevolving total to a new all time high of $2.937 trillion.

In other words, while Americans have rediscovered their enthusiasm to use their credit cards, they found a particular fascination with buying cars (on credit) while taking out college loans, not necessarily in that order.

And while the ongoing rebound in revolving credit use will silence any questions about the resilience of the US consumer heading into the holiday spending season, the recent dramatic upward revision to personal savings notwithstanding, one place where there were no surprises, was in the total amount of student and auto loans: here as expected, both numbers were at fresh all time highs, with a record $1.564 trillion in student loans outstanding, an impressive increase of $33 billion in the quarter, while auto debt also hit a new all time high of $1.141 trillion,an increase of $16 billion in the quarter.

In short, Americans are drowning even deeper in debt, and loving every minute of it

END
the hopeless case of the city of Chicago
(courtesy Simon Black/Sovereign Man)

Debt, Dope, & Casinos: Chicago Is Circling The Drain

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

While the federal government is slowly careening toward permanent, fiscal disaster, many state governments (which don’t have the power of the printing press) are already staring into the abyss…

Take Illinois, for example. It’s the most broke state in the US with nearly $250 billion in debt. And it only brings in enough in taxes each year to cover 92% of its expenses… so the problem is getting worse.

Good thing Rahm “you never want a serious crisis to go to waste” Emmanuel is the current Mayor of Chicago. You may remember, the above quote was from Rahm’s days as Obama’s Chief of Staff, as told to the Wall Street Journalduring the depths of the Great Financial Crisis…

What followed was the greatest monetary experiment known to man.

Now Rahm has another crisis on his hands – Chicago’s woefully underfunded pensions. And he’s reaching into his old bag of tricks.

Governments can only kick the can down the road for so long. Eventually, they’ve got to make some tough decisions – like who they’re going to default on. Despite the promises made by certain political representatives, it’s impossible for everyone to have everything…

And today, Rahm must choose…

Either Chicago defaults on the pension promises it’s made to city workers or it defaults on its massive debt. It’s simple arithmetic.

Rahm, it seems, has chosen the latter.

Chicago’s pension funds are only 26% funded (meaning it only has enough cash to pay out a pathetic 26% of what’s promised). And with the city’s dismal fiscal situation, that hole isn’t getting plugged on its own.

So Rahm proposed issuing $10 billion of debt to shore up the city’s pensions. The only government solution for debt problems today, it seems, is still more debt…

But even with that extra $10 billion, the city’s pensions will only be 50% funded.

Let me be clear… when you’ve got to take on debt for a chance of paying 50% of your pension obligations… you’re in default.

It gets better…

Rahm is pressuring the city to act quickly before interest rates increase more, which would make it more expensive for the city to finance its new debt.

So he’s essentially admitting the city couldn’t afford this new debt if rates increase 50 or 100 basis points. This is desperation.

OK… If interest states stay low, and Rahm can afford to issue these bonds, now we’ve only got to worry about future pension returns.

And Rahm says they can afford to issue the debt because the city’s pension funds have never seen an annualized return of lower than 8% for any 30-year period.

Most pension funds are grasping to that “magic” 8% number based on the past. But as we’ve written before, making those returns today is no easy feat. We’re at the tail end of 40 years of falling interest rates, which caused an insane bull market in stocks. It’s not likely the next 40 years will be as generous.

Already, at a market peak, pension funds are investing in riskier assets in hopes of achieving their break even returns.

If every single, little thing goes just perfect for the next 30 years, Chicago’s pensions may squeak by for awhile. What’s the likelihood of that happening? About zero.

Remember, a massive, 10-year bull market in stocks is nearing its end.

But desperate times call for desperate measures. And Rahm is out the door in May… so he won’t be around when the city has to default on its debt.

The federal government can still conjure money out of thin air. Cities and states don’t have that luxury. And like Chicago is doing today, we’ll see more of these tough decisions being made in the near future – the decision of who to default on.

There is one bright spot.

When discussing the bonds, Rahm did mention he supports legalizing marijuana and bringing casinos back to Chicago.

So if the pensions don’t work out, we’ve always got pot and gambling to restore our country to the glory days.

end

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

S and P downgrades the PG and E to junk and thus another fallen angel.  This will launch a 800 million collateral call as PG and E is no longer eligible debt for collateral

(courtesy zerohedge)

S&P Downgrades PG&E To Junk, Launching Countdown To $800 Million Collateral Call

One of the biggest surprises involving the ongoing collapse of troubled California utility PG&E is how it was possible, that with the company reportedly contemplating a DIP loan ahead of a possible bankruptcy filing which sent PCG stock plunging and its bonds cratering to all time lows, that rating agencies still had the company rated as investment grade.

Late on Monday, this question got some closure after S&P became the first rating agency to take a machete to its rating for PG&E, when it downgraded the company by five notches, from BBB- to B, the fifth-highest junk rating; S&P warned that more cuts are imminent.

As we reported previously, PG&E’s shares plunged as much as 25% then as much as another 17% on Tuesday, to their lowest level since 2003, as investors worried about the potential for the company to file for bankruptcy as California investigators have been looking into whether the utility’s equipment ignited the deadliest blaze in state history in 2018 as well as fires in 2017, probes that could leave the company with legal liabilities topping $30 billion.

A spokesman for PG&E said in an email Tuesday the company’s board is “actively assessing” operations, finances, management, structure and governance while maintaining a commitment to improving safety.

As Bloomberg notes, PG&E’s record-low bond prices underscore how much more the company will have to pay to borrow in the future, even if California comes up with a legislative bailout. “It also highlights how vulnerable even highly regulated, traditionally dependable stocks like utilities can be to natural disasters such as wildfires and hurricanes.”

Meanwhile, as we discussed last Friday, whatever PG&E ultimate fate, it “will ultimately increase costs to California ratepayers and taxpayers, which already face a high cost of living,” S&P analyst Gabriel Petek, who rates the state of California, not PG&E, said in an email Monday. “The important takeaway to me is that these fires and how the ‘fire season’ is virtually a year-round phenomenon now represent a material consequence of climate change.”

In addition to the plunge in the utility’s notes due in 2034, the company’s 3.5% bonds due next year are currently yielding more than 9.9%, far above where most high-yield securities are paying and a level reserved for deeply distressed credits. As shown in the chart below, B-rated debt, the mid-tier of junk bonds, yields on average 7.5% as of Monday’s close, according to Bloomberg index data.

But while S&P took the axes to its ratings of PG&E, Fitch and Moody have yet to slash the company’s investment grade. And when they do, the next major headache will emerge for both management, shareholders and bondholders, as a similar “junking” by Moody’s to high-yield would result in a rerun of the AIG death sprial, as at least once cash collateral call for PG&E of at least $800 million – to guarantee power contracts – will be triggered according to a regulatory filing (according to Bloomberg no other ratings triggers have been disclosed, although as AIG demonstrated, these tend be hidden deep inside ancillary contracts and only a downgrade will reveal just how insolvent the company is).

An $800 million collateral call would be a major problem for PG&E, as the company only had $430 million of cash on its books at the end of September. To preserve liquidity, PG&E suspended its dividend and fully drew its lines of credit, an event which we said is the first flashing red light that a liquidity crisis now appears inevitable. Meanwhile, as reported last Friday, the company is considering filing for bankruptcy as soon as February.

And while state lawmakers and regulators are looking at options including allowing the company to issue bonds to pay its liabilities, or breaking up the utility, no decision had been reached yet.

At the end of the day, however, even the $800 million urgent cash need would merely be a milestone on the company roads to assured bankruptcy if PG&E is ultimately held responsible for the Camp Fire, as that would put it on the hook for billions of dollars of potential liabilities, by some calculations far more than the company has access to. Yet because the company has filed for bankruptcy before, it and lawmakers would probably try to avoid a repeat, said Ryan Brist, head of global investment-grade credit and portfolio manager at Western Asset Management, who however likely understands that a bankruptcy may be inevitable.

“That was a disastrous time for all participants involved,” Pasadena, California-based Brist said. “It would be my guess that the same parties would want to pursue a much less volatile solution this go around when faced with the tough problems of statewide wildfires.”

However, with about $18.6 billion of long-term debt as of the end of September, PG&E may be incentivized to file for bankruptcy, CreditSights analyst Andy DeVries said in a report Monday. Such a filing would give the company bargaining power with insurance companies as it tries to settle customer claims at a discount, he said.

But before any possible filing, the next immediate step will be more downgrades by rating agencies, perhaps as soon as tomorrow.

Fitch analyst Philip Smyth said that a determination by California regulators that PG&E’s equipment was involved in the Tubbs Fire in 2017 or last year’s Camp Fire would be the strongest impetus to cut the rating.

“Right now, there is no investigation that says with any clarity that has determined that their equipment was the catalyst,” Smyth said in an interview Monday. “Since we downgraded in November, I don’t think things have gotten meaningfully worse since then.”

Finally, the imminent – and aptly called – fall from grace for PG&E is just the harbinger of the mass downgrade wave among investment-grade rated companies, expected to hit once the economic cycle turns, potentially flooding the more than $1.19 trillion high-yield market with new issues (as Jeff Gundlach discussed earlier today). The silver lining here, if any, is that PG&E’s relatively small debt load on its own wouldn’t bring the flood that strategists at Morgan Stanley have warned could exceed $1.1 trillion.

Xerox was the most recent company to join the “fallen angel” ranks, while Altria was downgraded from single A to BBB. Whether PG&E avoids bankruptcy remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the California utility will be the next prominent “Fallen Angel.”

 

end

Fitch threatens to join S and P in cutting the uSA debt from its AAA rating.  The reason: the upcoming debt ceiling battle

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fitch Threatens To Cut US Credit Rating As Debt-Ceiling Battle Looms

In what has become a perennial exercise before every debt-ceiling showdown since at least Obama’s first term (when S&P did the unthinkable and cut the US’s coveted AAA credit rating, exposing itself to extensive abuse by Tim Geithner), ratings agencies are starting to beat the credit-rating downgrade drum, with Fitch getting a jump on the competition Wednesday when its head of sovereign ratings warned that an enduring shutdown battle could negatively impact the negotiations over the debt ceiling, which could prompt Fitch to join S&P in eliminating its AAA rating for the US.

During an interview with CNBC and a separate appearance in London (where his comments were recorded by Reuters), Fitch’s global head of sovereign ratings James McCormack warned of a possible cut to its AAA rating for the U.S. sovereign should the shutdown continue to March, noting that the shutdown and debt ceiling battle are adding to anxieties triggered by President Trump’s tax cuts and spending hikes, which have blown out the budget deficit and led to a “meaningful fiscal deterioration.”

“I think people are looking at the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) numbers. If people take the time to look at that you can see debt levels moving higher, you can see the interest burden in the U.S. government moving decidedly higher over the next decade,” James McCormack, Fitch’s global head of sovereign ratings told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

“There needs to be some kind of fiscal adjustment to offset that or the deficit itself moves higher and you’re essentially borrowing money to pay interest on the debt. So there is a meaningful fiscal deterioration there, going on the United States.”

Watch his interview with CNBC below:

McCormack added later that Fitch would need to seriously consider a cut if the shutdown continues: “If this shutdown continues to March 1 and the debt ceiling becomes a problem several months later, we may need to start thinking about the policy framework, the inability to pass a budget…And whether all of that is consistent with triple-A.”

“From a rating point of view it is the debt ceiling that is problematic.”

A partial shutdown affecting roughly one-quarter of the federal government, and which has delayed paychecks for 400,000 workers while another 400,000 have been furloughed as Republicans and Democrats battle over funding for President Trump’s border wall.

The last ratings agency to cut its credit rating for the US was S&P, which famously revoked the US’s coveted long-term AAA credit rating back in 2011, citing political risks and a rising debt burden in the wake of the financial crisis. Here’s what they said at the time:

We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’ and affirmed the ‘A-1+’ short-term rating.

We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.

The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s medium-term debt dynamics.

More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

The last ratings agency to warn of a sovereign credit rating cut was Moody’s, which warned back in January 2018 that the Trump tax cuts were a “credit negative” because they would add $1.5 trillion to the federal budget deficit over 10 years.

end

SWAMP STORIES

Our deep state Deputy Attorney General is expected to resign in the coming weeks and it will occur at the same time as Barr is confirmed.  What a chicken!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Rod Rosenstein Expected To Resign In Coming Weeks: Report

Following a series of conflicting signals earlier on Wednesday – when the BBC published then deleted a story – the Financial Times has apparently confirmed that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, the top DOJ official tasked with overseeing the Mueller probe, is planning to resign as soon as next week.

Rosie

The controversial deputy – one of Trump’s favorite targets for criticism particularly since he appointed Special Counsel Robert Mueller to take over an investigation into suspicions of collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign – reportedly planning to leave after Trump’s AG pick, William Barr, is confirmed by the Senate – a confirmation that, thanks to the Republican majority – is extremely likely

Rod Rosenstein, the US deputy attorney-general, is expected to leave the Department of Justice in the coming weeks, according to a person familiar with the matter.

His departure is expected to follow the confirmation of William Barr, Donald Trump’s pick for attorney-general, according to the person, who said Mr Rosenstein wanted “to ensure a smooth transition” for the incoming head of the justice department.

A justice department spokesperson declined to comment. News of Mr Rosenstein’s exit was reported earlier by ABC News.

The deputy attorney-general had overseen the Russia investigation led by Robert Mueller, the special counsel. Mr Barr will take responsibility for the probe if he is confirmed following his Senate confirmation hearings next week.

The person familiar with the matter said Mr Rosenstein was not being pushed out and that he had long viewed the role as a two-year job. He was confirmed to the position in April 2017.

Rosenstein reportedly came close to resigning back in September following reports that he tried to organize an internal mutiny against Trump, even going so far as to urge cabinet members to secretly record their conversations with the president. These reports were later disputed, and Rosenstein and Trump appeared to reconcile after a meeting. Before that, Trump repeatedly toyed with firing Rosenstein, though he reportedly opted to keep him on each time.

According to the Washington Post, confirmation hearings for Barr are slated for Jan. 15 and 16.

 

end.

The feud between Pelosi and Trump intensifies after Trump threatens to pull Fema funds (issued for the California fires). Trump claims that California did nothing to prevent the fires.

Pelosi Slams Trump After Threat To Pull California FEMA Funds

Update: California Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D) said that Trump’s threat to pull FEMA funding for California “insults the memory of those who died” in the 2018 wildfires. A total of 98 civilians and six firefighters were killed during the 8,527 fires which raged throughout California last year, burning a cumulative 1,893,913 acres – the largest amount of burned acreage recorded in a fire season according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire).

***

President Trump on Wednesday announced over Twitter that he has ordered the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to stop sending money to California “unless they get their act together, which is unlikely.” 

“Billions of dollars are sent to the State of California for Forest fires that, with proper Forrest Management, would never happen,” Trump tweeted just one day after California Governor Gavin Newsom was sworn in, adding “It is a disgraceful situation in lives & money!”

In November, Trump threatened to cut wildfire funding as California burned from two out-of-control blazes, tweeting “There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!

The next day, Trump tweeted: “With proper Forest Management, we can stop the devastation constantly going on in California. Get Smart!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

With proper Forest Management, we can stop the devastation constantly going on in California. Get Smart!

Meanwhile, rumors have been swirling over a possible bankruptcy by California’s largest electric utility, Pacific Gas & Electric company (PG&E), which just had its debt downgraded to junk by S&P.

As we reported previously, PG&E’s shares plunged as much as 25% then as much as another 17% on Tuesday, to their lowest level since 2003, as investors worried about the potential for the company to file for bankruptcy as California investigators have been looking into whether the utility’s equipment ignited the deadliest blaze in state history in 2018 as well as fires in 2017, probes that could leave the company with legal liabilities topping $30 billion.

A PG&E spokesman said in a Tuesday email that the company’s board is “actively assessing” operations, finances, management, structure and governance while maintaining a commitment to improving safety.

And as we discussed last Friday, whatever PG&E ultimate fate, it “will ultimately increase costs to California ratepayers and taxpayers, which already face a high cost of living,” S&P analyst Gabriel Petek, who rates the state of California, not PG&E, said in an email Monday.

end

If Trump does not make a deal with the Democrats, he will use the “national emergency” button to build the Wall and end the Government shutdown

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Says He Will Use “National Emergency” To Build Wall If No Deal With Dems

After reaffirming through leaked reports and his Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders that invoking a national emergency to bypass Congress and build his border wall is still very much an option, President Trump doubled down on this threat during a press conference on Wednesday ahead of negotiations with Congressional leaders (including Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi). Vice President Mike Pence is also expected to travel to the Hill with Trump on Wednesday to meet with lawmakers.

Trump said he has the “absolute right” to declare a national emergency, something that both he and a Democratic Congressman have affirmed (though others have challenged these claims and Democratic leaders have threatened a legal challenge should be follow through). He added that his “threshold” for doing so would be “if I can make a deal” with Democrats that would include funding for the Wall. Meanwhile, the Dems on Wednesday said they’d be open to a compromise that includes funding for other border security measures.

Trump

Still, the Democratic leadership is standing by its demands that Trump reopen the government before negotiations continue.

“I think we might work a deal, and if we don’t we might go that route,” Trump told reporters during a bill signing in the Oval Office.

Trump’s comments come after he made his case to the nation during his first prime time address that the lack of security on the Southern border represents “a humanitarian crisis” caused by drug and human trafficking – though he stopped short of declaring a national emergency during the speech.

Meanwhile, Pelosi on Wednesday accused Trump of “moving the goal posts” during the negotiations, causing the government shut down to drag on for longer than necessary.

“The White House seems to move the goal posts. Every time they come with a proposal, they walk away from it. Pretty soon these goals posts won’t even be in the stadium,” she said.

According to Bloomberg, Trump claimed during the press conference that he “didn’t want” this shutdown fight, but that “strong barriers” along the border are a necessity because “a drone isn’t going to stop a thousand people from running through.”

As anxieties for federal workers who are about to miss  paycheck continue to mount, Trump assured them that they are “all going to get the money” (though furloughed federal workers aren’t entitled to missed pay, though Congress has typically passed legislation to compensate them when shutdowns end).

As more Senate Republicans grow frustrated with the impasse, Trump said he’s “willing to keep the shutdown”, promising “whatever it takes” to achieve his goals – adding that he has tremendous Republican support.

If there’s anything to be taken from these comments, it’s that Trump hasn’t given up on a deal just yet – though he is apparently inching closer toward the ‘national emergency’ scenario

END

To be expected;  Trump walks out of a meeting with Chuck and Nancy after both state that even if Trump opens up government there will be no money for the wall.

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Petulant” Trump Walks Out Of “Waste Of Time” Meeting With Schumer And Pelosi

President Trump fumed on Wednesday after walking out of a “waste of time” meeting with Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), after the Democratic leaders refused to approve any type of funding for his wall.

“Just left a meeting with Chuck and Nancy, a total waste of time. I asked what is going to happen in 30 days if I quickly open things up, are you going to approve Border Security which includes a Wall or Steel Barrier? Nancy said, NO. I said bye-bye, nothing else works!” tweeted Trump. 

 

Vice President Mike Pence confirmed Trump’s account of the meeting, noting that after Pelosi said “No” to the wall funding, Trump “said goodbye.”

Embedded video

TicToc by Bloomberg

@tictoc

“When she said no, the president said goodbye.”

Pence describes the moment Trump walked out of a shutdown meeting with Schumer and Pelosi, calling it a “total waste of time”

Pelosi and Schumer spoke after the meeting – with Pelosi repeating her talking points from her Tuesday night response to President Trump’s oval office address.

“Federal workers will not be receiving their paychecks,” said Pelosi. “And what that means in their lives is tragic in terms of their credit rating and their mortgage and their rent and their children’s tuition and all the rest. The President seems to be insensitive to that – he thinks maybe they can just ask their father for more money, but they can’t.” 

Schumer, meanwhile, said it was impossible to negotiate with “a petulant president of the United States.”

CNN Politics

@CNNPolitics

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says President Trump doesn’t understand financial insecurity that federal workers face during the shutdown: “He thinks maybe they could just ask their father for more money. But they can’t”

Embedded video

CNN Politics

@CNNPolitics

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer: President Trump immediately got up and walked out of their meeting when Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Democrats wouldn’t agree to fund a border wall. “We saw a temper tantrum” pic.twitter.com/opMQi7Qpu1

Embedded video

Developing…

END

The strong and powerful State Street bank had its new CEO fire 15% of senior manangment as its shares slump

(courtesy zerohedge)

New State Street CEO Fires 15% Of Senior Management As Shares Slump

Automation in the financial services industry isn’t just an imminent threat to the jobs of back-office workers, brokers and a financial advisors. As State Street Corp. demonstrated on Wednesday, employees at the top of the compensation pyramid are increasingly at risk, according to Bloomberg.

According to Bloomberg, the Boston-based bank is laying off 15% of its senior management on the orders of recently arrived CEO Ronald O’Hanley (who is presumably trying to bolster shareholder confidence after shares of the custody banking and asset-management giant underperformed shares of other major US banks last year). The bank, best known for its ownership of the pioneering SPDR ETF business (which runs some of the world’s largest ETFs), announced O’Hanley as its new CEO on the day after Christmas.

Hanley

Ronald O’Hanley

O’Hanley first hinted about the layoffs during a Goldman Sachs conference last month, when he said the bank needs to “structurally compress” its upper management. O’Hanley is continuing to tackle costs, and BBG’s sources said that the bank has hundreds of senior managers, and those affected include executive vice presidents and senior VPs.

During that presentation, the CEO referenced “Project Beacon”, State Street’s plans for cutting costs via automation (which presumably means this round of layoffs won’t be the first).

Marc Hazelton, a spokesman for Boston-based State Street, which has more than 30,000 employees, declined to comment on the number of senior managers who are being laid off.

[…]

“When you do that, one, you’re simplifying the way business gets done at State Street,” he said. “But two, you just don’t need as many top-end senior managers to get the work done.”

Effectively, what O’Hanley is showing that low- and mid-level employees in the financial services industry aren’t the only ones who are vulnerable to losing their jobs due to automation: The senior managers who are responsible for managing those employees have suddenly found themselves with much fewer employees to monitor.

State Street’s shares are down 35% since Jan. 1 2018, compared with a 27% drop for the S&P’s index of 18 asset managers and custody banks.

State

If the bank’s shares don’t rebound, expect more “cost compression” in the name of automation.

end
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

rump infuriated/trolled the Establishment and Neocons on Monday night with this tweet:

 

@realDonaldTrump: Endless Wars, especially those which are fought out of judgement mistakes that were made many years ago, & those where we are getting little financial or military help from the rich countries that so greatly benefit from what we are doing, will eventually come to a glorious end!

Three big stories appeared on Monday night that the MSM is trying to ignore due to politics.

Protesters demand California Democratic megadonor Ed Buck’s arrest amid second man found dead in his apartment – has given more than $500,000 to a range of Democratic groups and candidates including former President Barack Obama, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton… [Adam Schiff]

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2019/01/07/second-man-dies-in-west-hollywood-apartment-of-prominent-democratic-donor-ed-buck/

Russian firm’s defense attorney rips judge for coming to Mueller’s aid

For a reason unknown to undersigned counsel, the Court [judge] took it upon itself to defend the Special Counsel, creating at a minimum an appearance of bias or prejudice in favor of the government.”  Mr. Dubelier said the mainstream media has all but ignored his written arguments which have criticized the judge for approving Mr. Mueller’s bid to hide evidence from Concord on national security grounds

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jan/8/eric-dubelier-rips-judge-coming-muellers-aid/

Huge Conflict of Interest – Corrupt as Hell! Husband of Judge Overseeing Mueller Case Against Russian Company Closely Linked to Mueller and Corrupt ‘Pitbull’ Weissmann!

    According to attorney Sidney Powell, Freidrich worked with Weissman and was involved in the corrupt case against Senator Ted Stevens which was thrown out of court after Stevens lost the 2008 election…

    Now, Freidrich’s wife the judge is overseeing Mueller’s bogus case against Russian Company Concord Management.  How is this not a material conflict of interest?…

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/01/huge-conflict-of-interest-corrupt-as-hell-husband-of-judge-overseeing-mueller-case-against-russian-company-closely-linked-to-mueller-and-corrupt-pitbull-weissmann/

Here Are the Obama-Era Officials Allegedly Behind the Alabama False Flag Campaign

https://dailycaller.com/2019/01/07/alabama-false-flag-democrats/

Russian attorney Natalia Veselnitskaya charged with obstruction of justice in US court

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/russian-attorney-natalia-veselnitskaya-charged-with-obstruction-of-justice-in-us-court

 

@ChuckRossDC: Some people will be shocked to learn that Natalia Veselnitskaya worked closely with Fusion GPS on the effort for which she was indicted today. https://dailycaller.com/2019/01/08/veselnitskaya-trump-tower-fusion/

NBC: The information that a Russian lawyer brought with her when she met Donald Trump Jr. in June 2016 stemmed from research conducted by Fusion GPS, the same firm that compiled the infamous Trump dossier, according to the lawyer and a source familiar with the matter

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-dossier-firm-also-supplied-info-used-meeting-russians-trump-n819526

Carlson’s Invisible Political Hand Riles Conservative Critics

Before Reagan’s election, libertarian economist Milton Friedman warned that our economic freedom is threatened constantly by the capriciousness and self-interest of politicians and their special interest benefactors… “Such a system tends to give undue political power to small groups that have highly concentrated interests, to give greater weight to obvious, direct, and immediate effects of government action than to possibly more important but concealed, indirect, and delayed effects, to set in motion a process that sacrifices the general interest to serve special interests, rather than the other way around. There is, as it were, an invisible hand in politics that operates in precisely the opposite direction to Adam Smith’s invisible hand. Individuals who intend only to promote the general interest are led by the invisible political hand to promote a special interest that they had no intention to promote.”…

https://amgreatness.com/2019/01/07/carlsons-invisible-political-hand-riles-conservative-critic

END

I WILL SEE YOU ON THURSDAY
H
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: