Jan 18/GOLD DOWN $9.65 TO $1283.25/SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TO $15.38/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1283.25 DOWN $9.65 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $15.38 DOWN 13 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1281.50

 

silver: $15.34

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

JANUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ (0.003 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  539 NOTICES FOR 53900 OZ  (1.6858 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JANUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

23 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 115,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 791 for 3,995,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3591: DOWN 26

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3597 DOWN   $16 

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 1/1

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,291.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/17/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 01/22/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1 1
MONTH TO DATE: 542

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN SMALL SIZED 315 CONTRACTS FROM 192,911 UP TO 193,226 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S  9 CENT LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

1215 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1215 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1215 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1215 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.075 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 9 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

 21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

AND NOW: INITIALLY 5.725 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY: 30,189 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 30,189 CONTRACTS) OR 150.945 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2322 CONTRACTS OR 11.611 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  150.945 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 21.55% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           150.945    MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 315 DESPITE THE 9 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 315 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 1530 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1215 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 315 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 9 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.51 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .896 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 128% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 23 NOTICE(S) FOR 115,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ  AND NOW JANUARY AT  5.725 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 8884 CONTRACTS UP TO 510,097 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A FALL IN PRICE OF $1.10//YESTERDAY’S TRADING)

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD  SIZED 3423 CONTRACTS:

 

FEBRUARY HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 3423 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 510,097. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,307 CONTRACTS:98884 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3423 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 12,307 CONTRACTS OR 1,230,700 OZ = 39.27 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $1.10???

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7276 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY : 101,629 CONTRACTS OR 10,162,900 OZ  OR 316.11 TONNES (13 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7817 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 316.11 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 316.11/2550 x 100% TONNES = 12.39% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     316.11  TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 8884 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($1.10) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 3423 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 3423 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD GAIN OF 12,307 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

3423 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 8884 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 38.27 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS OF $1.10 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??????????.  THIS IS THE 5TH STRAIGHT DAY THAT WE RECORDED STRONG RISES IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES!

 

 

we had: notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65 TODAY 

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   797.71 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 797.71 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 315 CONTRACTS from 192,911 UP TO 193,226  AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

1215 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1215 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 315 CONTRACTS TO THE 1215 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN  OF 1530  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.65 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER AND 5.725 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 9 CENT PRICING FALL THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1215 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 36.37 PTS OR 1.42% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 335.18 POINTS OR 1.25% /The Nikkei closed UP 263.80  PTS OR 1.29%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7787 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 52.59 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.74 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED /GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7787 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7874: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA/Sweden

North Korea and the USA hold secret talks in Stockholm  It seems that North Korea really wants to dispose of its nuclear arsenal

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

 

 

 

i)CHINA

After seeing flash crashes in two of China’s major real estate developers, we are witnessing property developers implode as the market is freaking out over 55 billion dollars worth of debt coming due in 2019

( zerohedge)

ii)For those of you who think that Apple iphone slump is transitory guess again:  Foxconn just cut 50,000 jobs due to world wide sales slowdown.
( zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)EUROPE/UK

Odey, a BREXIT supporter warns that if Great Britain does not leave the EU, a “revolution” will begin

( zerohedge)

 

ii)FRANCE

LePen is now moving closer to the centre as she states that leaving the Euro is “no longer a priority” .

A leopard cannot change it’s spots

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)GERMANY/HUAWEI (CHINA)

This is not good for China as now powerhouse Germany is exploring a ban on Hauwei products.

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

This should shake up some central bankers:  The Turkish parliament is now set to grant Erdogan emergency powers to combat “”economic disaster”  Despite the fact that a family member is head of its central bank, he wants complete control.

 

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

MALAYSIA/GOLDMAN SACHS

Malaysia tells Goldman Sachs that if they repay the loss in the 1MDB scandal of $7.5 billion, it may drop criminal charges against the bank

( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

i)Very popular Art Berman discusses the false accounting of shale oil  The reserves are at best 60%  of what the owners believe they have

( Art Berman/PeakProsperity.com)

 

ii)With low oil prices it is not surprising to see the USA oil rigs plummet
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

ii)Market data/

a)No doubt phony numbers coming from the uSA: after terrible numbers for the past 3 months, we witness a 1.1% surge in manufacturing output..the most in almost a year…go figure..

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Trumps’s new plan is for missile interceptors, sensors and radars to shield every city in the USA

( zero hedge)

b)More evidence that the economy turned south:  Greenwich homes plunge 17% as they piggyback on weakness from Manhattan

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a) Not good: Trump supposedly instructs Michael Cohen to lie to congress about the Moscow project according to BuzzFeed.

(courtesy zerohedge)

a ii)  Skeptics shred the buzzfeed article above as nonsense: has not seen any evidence

( zerohedge)
Pelosi and her Democrat colleagues were furious with the cancellation of their trip to foreign countries. Trump claims that they should be negotiating the end of the shutdown
(courtesy zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

 

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN  ROSE BY AN HUGE SIZED 8884 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 510,097 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.10) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3423 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR FEBRUARY:  3423 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3423 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  12,307 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3423 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 8884 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12,307 contracts OR 1,230,700  OZ OR 38.27 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of JANUARY and here the open interest stands at 52 contracts as we GAINED 1 contract. We had 0 notices filed on yesterday so we gained 1 contracts or 100 ADDITIONAL oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negate a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next active delivery month is February and here the OI LOST  452 contracts UP to 234,324 contracts.  After February, March LOST 10 contracts to stand at 691.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI rose by 7954 contracts up to 178,860 contracts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE  January 2018 contract month

 

 

ON JANUARY 1/2018: 1.297 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY  (Jan 1 2019 initial standing 1.306 tonnes)

EVENTUALLY ON JAN 31.2018: 2.17 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX

 

 

WE HAD 1 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 100 OZ. (0..00310 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 315 CONTRACTS FROM 192,911 UP TO 193,226(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS 377 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 104 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 124 NOTICES FILED ON YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 20 CONTRACTS OR  100,000 ADDITIONAL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR SILVER AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IS THE NORM AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THE DEALERS SCRAMBLE FOR WHATEVER PHYSICAL THEY CAN OBTAIN.

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS FEBRUARY AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 5 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 454. AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 63 CONTRACTS UP TO 144,596 CONTRACTS.

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1713 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  315 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1215 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1530 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 9 CENT FALL IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH AND JANUARY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE JAN 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD A GOOD 2.695 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY’

AT THE CONCLUSION OF JAN/2018 WE HAD 3.650 MILLION OZ STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NORM FOR SILVER

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 23 notice(s) filed for 115,000 OZ for the FEB, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  238,082 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  218,864  contracts

volumes at the comex for both gold and silver are much less than usual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 18/2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
2089.65 oz
Scotia
65 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

NIL

 

OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
51 contracts
(5100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
542 notices
54200 OZ
1.6858 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  NIL oz

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Scotia: 2089.75 oz

65 KILOBARS

 

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  2089.75 oz

 

we had 0  adjustments….

FOR THE JAN 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (542) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (52 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 59,300 OZ OR 1.844 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON  active month of JANUARY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (542 x 100 oz)  + {52)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 59,300 oz standing OR 1.844 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JANUARY.

Today we gained 1 contracts or an additional 100 oz will stand in this non active month of January

.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.11 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.844 TONNES STANDING FOR JANUARY

LAST MONTH WE HAVE 23.37 TONNES OF GOLD SUPPOSEDLY DELIVERED UPON BUT THIS AMOUNT OF GOLD DID NOT LEAVE THE REGISTERED GOLD CATEGORY AT THE COMEX.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  743,019.277 oz or   23.11 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,405,974.987 oz 261.46 tonnes

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 93 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

JAN INITIAL standings/SILVER

JAN 18, 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
471,112.317 oz
Delaware
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
1,226,386.600 oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,922,252.200 oz
CNT
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
23
CONTRACT(S)
115,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
354 contracts
1,770,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 791 contracts

(3,955,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into Brinks:  1226,386.600 0z

 

total dealer deposits:  1,226,386.600  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: 495,032.520  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.51% of all official comex silver. (147.7 million/293 million)

ii) into CNT:  1,427,219.680 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 1,922,252.200   oz

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of DELAWARE:  80,894.967 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 80,894.967 oz
iii) Out of Scotia; 389,295.850 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  471,112.317   oz

 

we had 0 adjustments and  both of these are settlements

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  86.058 million

total dealer + customer silver:  295.403 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY 2019. contract month is represented by 23 contract(s) FOR 115,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 791 x 5,000 oz = 3,955,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (377) and the number of notices served upon today (23x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY/2019 contract month: 791(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN( 377) -number of notices served upon today (23)x 5000 oz equals 5,725,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month. We gained 20 contracts or an additional 100,000 oz will  stand for delivery and these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  54,176 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 56,668 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 56,668 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 283 million OZ  40.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.58% (JAN 18/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.34% to NAV (JAN 18 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.58%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.12/TRADING 12.64/DISCOUNT 3.59

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 STRANGELY A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $8.65: A MASSIVE 15.88 TONNES WAS ADDED INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 790.02 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $0.15: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $15.15: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.15 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.14 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JAN 18/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 797.71 tonnes

*IN LAST 537 TRADING DAYS: 137.45 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 437 TRADING DAYS: A NET 22.55 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/NO DOUBT THE MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF PAPER SILVER WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.895 MILLION OZ./INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110 MILLION OZ/

JAN 16/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.158 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.005 MILLION OZ/

JAN 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 469,000 OZ FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.163 MILLION OZ/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN ADDITION OF 94,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317,233

DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.408 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/ INV. RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

 

 

JAN 18/2019:

 

Inventory 307.110 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.25/ and libor 6 month duration 2.85

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .60

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.56%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.01

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.45

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Three Reasons Gold May Embark On An Extended Rally

– History may repeat itself for gold demand and prices as world economy looks set to slow
– Three reasons for gold’s extended rally from 2008 to 2011 may be making a comeback
– As global growth looks to be slowing, hopes grow for repeat of 2008-11 rally that saw gold almost triple in value

by Clyde Russell of Thomson Reuters

The three legs that supported gold’s extended rally from just after the 2008 global recession until the all-time peak in 2011 may be making something of a comeback this year.


Gold in USD 10 Years – GoldCore.com

This is sparking hopes that the precious metal may finally break out of a fairly narrow five-year range, although it’s still far from certain that the dynamics for a sustained rally are entrenched.

The 2008-11 rally that saw spot gold almost triple in value to reach a record of $1,920.30 an ounce was built on three pillars, namely strong physical demand from top buyers China and India, robust central bank purchases, and appetite for a safe haven investment amid the fallout from the global recession.

Full Article via Reuters Here

 

Watch Our Latest Video Updates On YouTube Here

 

News and Commentary

McEwen Says Gold Market Confidence Is Coming Back (Bloomberg.com)

Sam Zell Says Gold ‘Is a Good Hedge’ (Bloomberg.com)

Palladium holds near record levels on supply woes; gold steady (Reuters.com)

The stock market hasn’t started a year this strongly since 1987 — uh-oh! (MarketWatch.com)

Palladium Reaches Another Record as JPMorgan Sees More Upside (Bloomberg.com)


Image Credit: Dow Jones Market Data

Silver: Back In Focus (SilverSeek.com)

U.S. Government Debt Bomb Much Higher Than Americans Realize (24HGold.com)

J.P. Koning: How California stayed with gold when the rest of the U.S. adopted fiat money (Gata.org)

Eleven Economic Reports Delayed Due to Gov’t Shutdown: Do We Even Need Them? (24HGold.com)

Top Ten Trends Lead to Gold (24HGold.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

17 Jan: USD 1,294.00, GBP 1,004.92 & EUR 1,135.87 per ounce
16 Jan: USD 1,290.50, GBP 1,002.46 & EUR 1,130.99 per ounce
15 Jan: USD 1,289.35, GBP 1,002.99 & EUR 1,127.67 per ounce
14 Jan: USD 1,293.70, GBP 1,007.02 & EUR 1,129.27 per ounce
11 Jan: USD 1,298.80, GBP 1,012.91 & EUR 1,123.96 per ounce
10 Jan: USD 1,292.40, GBP 1,012.98 & EUR 1,121.54 per ounce
09 Jan: USD 1,281.30, GBP 1,006.41 & EUR 1,118.32 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

17 Jan: USD 15.57, GBP 12.08 & EUR 13.66 per ounce
16 Jan: USD 15.54, GBP 12.09 & EUR 13.66 per ounce
15 Jan: USD 15.60, GBP 12.13 & EUR 13.65 per ounce
14 Jan: USD 15.61, GBP 12.13 & EUR 13.61 per ounce
11 Jan: USD 15.68, GBP 12.23 & EUR 13.60 per ounce
10 Jan: USD 15.70, GBP 12.33 & EUR 13.63 per ounce
09 Jan: USD 15.62, GBP 12.27 & EUR 13.64 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Political Turmoil in UK & US Sees Gold Hit 2 Week High
– Gold Holds Steady Over €1,100/oz – Increased Possibility Of A Disorderly Brexit
– Turbulence and Brexit Make Safer Options Like Gold and Cash Essential
– Where Will The “Pending” Financial Crisis Originate?
– Gold and Silver Prices To Rise To $1,650 and $30 By 2020? Video Update
– Gold Outlook 2019: Uncertainty Makes Gold A “Valuable Strategic Asset” – WGC
– Blackrock Say Gold Will Be A “Valuable Portfolio Hedge” In 2019
– Financial Advice In 2019: Own Gold To Hedge $250 Trillion Global Debt Bubble – GoldCore In Irish Times
– China Adds 320,000 Ounces To Gold Reserves – First Central Bank Purchase Since October 2016
– Gold At 6 Month High At $1,300 and All Time Record Highs In Australian Dollars Over $1,870
– Gold Hedges Stock Market Falls In 2018 – Gains 2.7% In Euros and 3.8% In Pounds

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER

 

END





iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

 

end

 

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.7787/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7874   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 36.37 PTS OR 1.42%

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 335.18 POINTS OR 1.25%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 263.80  POINTS OR 1.29%

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.04/Euro RISES TO 1.1406

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.40/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 52.59 and Brent: 61.74

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.26%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.72% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.35%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.46: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.19

3k Gold at $1282.10 silver at:15.42   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 9/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.36

3m oil into the 52 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.40 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9935 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1322 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.22%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.76% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.09%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3584

 

Futures, Global Markets Surge On Renewed China Stimulus And Trade Optimism

The “Mnuchin Plunge Protection Team/Government Shutdown” rally extended overnight, and is now more than 13% from the Dec 24 lows with US equity futures and European stocks rising following a strong Asian session following a since-denied WSJ report that the US is considering easing Chinese tariffs to boost the market, followed by a report that China has told local governments to push consumption of cars and home appliances. The result is a sea of green in global markets, which look set to close the week at one month highs, while safe haven assets continued to decline with Treasuries, the yen and gold all edging lower.

As a result of resurgent trade dispute optimism coupled with ongoing rumors of further stimulus from China, a Fed which has removed the threat of further rate hikes and an ok earnings season so far, global stocks rose to their highest in more than a month on Friday.

European stocks rose to the highest since early December, carrying over the trade optimism from the Asian session where major equity indices posted >1% gains after the WSJ reported that the US was considering lifting China import tariffs, and even though the Treasury promptly rejected the report, the story reinforced speculation the administration is more eager for a deal and helped upward momentum now that the 50DMA resistance has been breached in the S&P500.

“The story was probably not as interesting as the headlines suggested, as the story states that the proposal comes from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (a China dove), while the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer (China hawk) opposes the idea,” strategists at Danske Bank wrote in a note to clients. “Nonetheless, we still interpret the story as another sign that a US-China trade deal is moving closer and markets probably do as well.”

Europe’s Stoxx50 rose 1.4%, crossing above the 50DMA for the first time since September, with banks enjoying the largest gains (+1.8%), recovering Thursday’s losses to resume the week’s rally, while Autos also rallied (+1.5%) supported by reports that China told local governments should boost policy support for consumption of home appliances and cars, according to a statement from the National Development and Reform Commission.

China’s ministries called for boosting consumption in rural areas, including raising the quality of products consumed, and called for an increase in marketing of high- quality industrial products to rural areas. In short, China is telegraphing that consumption is to play a bigger role in dealing with downward economic pressures, although it is unclear just how this is possible when consumer debt in China has exploded in recent years, especially mortgage loans and credit card debt.

News of additional Chinese stimulus helped lift the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares ex Japan by 0.55%; the index has gained 1.3 percent this week, while the Shanghai Composite was up 1 percent. Australian stocks rose 0.5%, South Korea’s KOSPI advanced 0.6 percent and Japan’s Nikkei gained more than 1 percent to a one-month high.

The gains across regions helped lift the MSCI All-Country World Index to its highest since early December. The index was set for its fourth straight weekly gain, its longest weekly winning streak in six months, a furious rally that started the day after the US government was shut down, when Steven Mnuchin summoned the Plunge Protection Team, and as president Trump said  “I think it’s a tremendous opportunity to buy. Really a great opportunity to buy.” So far he has been right.

In the US, S&P futures traded at session highs , up 0.5% following the S&P 500 cash Index’s first close above its 50-day average since early December. The yen fell for a fourth day and oil extended a third week of gains toward $53 a barrel in New York

The bid for risk assets weighed on long dated bond maturities as curves bear steepened and swap spreads tighten. 10Y TSY yields rose to session highs of 2.77% the highest level in three weeks, while long-end Gilts underperformed with yields rising ~3.5bps before stalling. Peripheral bonds continue to trade well, led by BTPs which pare some of the early ~8bp tightening to Germany.

In FX trading, DXY trades to the lower end of a tight range, EURUSD reclaims 1.14, GBP backs away from 1.3000.  The dollar was supported after U.S. Treasury yields rose amid improved risk appetite. The dollar was set for its first weekly rise in five.  The euro rose to $1.1398 after dipping overnight. It was on track for a weekly loss of 0.7 percent. The pound was 0.3 percent lower at $1.2950 after climbing to a two-month peak of $1.3001 on hopes that Britain can avoid a no-deal Brexit.

As Bloomberg notes, stocks and junk bonds are heading into the weekend with momentum after investors got some relief over concerns about the growth and rates outlook from U.S. economic data and central bankers. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the American economy is doing well, allowing that “we can easily be patient” in deciding on further interest-rate increases. Global stocks powered toward their fourth weekly gain.

“We think valuations are attractive,” said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street. “There’s quite a lot of bad news already priced in. Lack of bad news is good news, and we can see markets re-pricing back to higher multiples.”

In overnight political news, the White House confirmed US President Trump cancelled the delegation trip to Davos amid government shutdown, while the White House also stated that US President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are to hold Oval Office meeting today. Elsewhere, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has declined a request to testify next week regarding government shutdown according to US House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Neal, while the US Treasury instead offered to send senior officials to the Way and Means hearing.

EU Commission has proposed negotiating mandates for trade talks with the US, the EU seeks cover tariff removal for industrial goods and regulatory cooperation. Trade Commissioner Malmstrom added that EU are ready to put cars into the negotiations with the US; we are not proposing to restart broad free trade agreements with the US. German government spokesman, when asked about mulling the ban of Huawei from its 5G network, said security is important for Germany.

In commodities, crude oil futures extended Thursday’s gains, adding 0.8% to $52.49 per barrel. Brent crude was up 0.6 percent at $61.56 per barrel and on track to gain roughly 2% on the week. Elsewhere in commodities, palladium was 1.5 percent higher at $1,417.00 an ounce after rising to an all-time high of $1,434.50 overnight. Demand has recently outstripped supply for the metal, used in emissions-reducing catalytic converters for cars. Palladium also appeared to get a boost from hopes for further government stimulus in China, the world’s biggest auto market. Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,299.06 an ounce, after relinquishing its spot as the most expensive precious metal to palladium early in December.

Expected data include industrial production and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. State Street and Schlumberger are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 2,647
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1% to 354.35
  • MXAP up 0.6% to 153.27
  • MXAPJ up 0.7% to 498.07
  • Nikkei up 1.3% to 20,666.07
  • Topix up 0.9% to 1,557.59
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 27,090.81
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 2,596.01
  • Sensex up 0.02% to 36,382.51
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,879.59
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,124.28
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.6 bps to 0.269%
  • Euro up 0.07% to $1.1397
  • Brent Futures up 0.9% to $61.75/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 2.406%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 1.348%
  • Brent futures up 0.9% to $61.75/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,285.34
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.04% to 96.11

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • President Trump told his lawyer Michael Cohen to lie to Congress about talks to build a Trump Tower in Moscow, BuzzFeed reports, citing two unidentified federal law enforcement officials involved in a probe of the matter
  • Investors have been flocking to the safety of longer-dated gilts, preferring them over shorter maturities, a sign that they think the risks surrounding the economy are growing. At the same time, they are betting that inflation will become a headache for policy makers
  • Theresa May met leading pro-Brexit Tories and promised them she won’t agree to keep Britain in a customs union with the EU, according to people familiar with the matter. She was also firm there won’t be an extension to the March 29 deadline and she’s not going to rule out leaving the EU with no deal
  • The European Commission said it is “not taking any chances” in preparing for Brexit as the possibility of a no-deal divorce was seen to increase after May was defeated in Parliament this week
  • Trump administration officials are considering measures to roll back tariffs on Chinese products in order to calm financial markets, the Wall Street Journal reported, a report the Treasury Department quickly denied
  • Norway Prime Minister Erna Solberg has tightened her grip on politics with a deal that secures a parliamentary majority to a conservative-led government in Norway for the first time in more than three decades
  • Japan’s key inflation gauge slowed again in December, highlighting the difficulty of reaching the central bank’s 2% price goal. Yen at 98 would trigger BOJ to take action, economists say
  • China’s ambassador to Canada warned that excluding Huawei Technologies Co. from its next-generation wireless network will have repercussions
  • India’s government signaled it’s ready to sacrifice fiscal discipline to stoke economic growth, as it prepares to unveil its last spending plan next month before a general election
  • Global oil demand remains on course to be stronger this year than in 2018 as a boost from lower fuel prices counters slowing economic activity, according to the International Energy Agency

Asian equity markets traded higher across the board as the region took impetus from Wall St where the major indices were lifted on hopes of easing trade tensions after the US was said to mull lifting China trade tariffs to break the stalemate, although the Treasury was quick to downplay the prospects regarding this. As such, ASX 200 (+0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.3%) were positive with broad gains across the sectors and with the Japanese benchmark the outperformer as it coat-tailed on the favourable currency moves. Hang Seng (+1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.4%) were boosted by the trade hopes with US and China also said to be in discussions on reopening access for US poultry exports to China, while the PBoC’s continued efforts this week resulted to a substantial net weekly injection of CNY 1.16tln to the interbank market. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower as they tracked the downside in T-notes and with demand for bonds subdued by the positive sentiment across stock markets in the region, but with losses limited amid improved demand in the enhanced liquidity auction for 10yr, 20yr & 30yr JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • Serial Defaulter IL&FS in Spotlight as Bond Payment Due
  • Alibaba Is Said to Postpone Some Hiring, Cut Travel Spending
  • Carlyle, Nomura Are Said to Weigh Bid for Orion Breweries
  • Asia’s Richest Man Outlines His Plan to Take on Amazon in India

Major European equities are firmly in the green amidst positive trade updates [Euro Stoxx 50 +1.6%]. FTSE MIB (+1.0%) was initially weighed on by the poor performance of index heavyweight Telecom Italia (-7.0%) at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after saying they expect 2018 organic EBITDA of domestic business unit to be in the lower mid-single digits compared to the previous year; adding that this may influence 2019. Major sectors are similarly in the green with some underperformance in telecom names on the back of aforementioned Telecom Italia. Other notable movers include Casino (+6.6%) after the Co’s CFO states that despite the French protests they expect to meet 2018 profit goals. Ryanair (-1.7%) have dropped to their lowest level in around 4 years as the Co. have cut their full year guidance. Easyjet (-2.4%) have been dealt a double blow this morning suffering from the Ryanair guidance cut and a downgrade at JP Morgan. Foxconn have cut 50k jobs at their iPhone factory since October, the scale of the cut is not necessarily deeper than prior years but it is significantly earlier; according to Nikkei citing industry sources.

Top European News

  • Sweden Ends Historic Political Impasse as Government Is Formed
  • ECB Has Narrow Window for Rate Hikes Before Economy Is Too Soft
  • Telecom Italia Shares Plunge on Domestic Profit Warning
  • Ryanair Earnings Outlook Takes Another Dive on Winter Fares

In FX, the USD Little changed and within a tight 96.000-140 band following yesterday’s volatile trade amid reports that the US are said to be mulling rolling back on China trade tariffs in an attempt to break the stalemate in talks, although the Treasury was quick to downplay the prospects regarding this. Furthermore, participants will be eyeing the meeting between US President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin at 17:45 GMT for any fresh details on trade or the government shutdown. DXY keeps its head above 96.000 and north of its 100 DMA at 96.055 ahead of the US industrial production data. Wells Fargo notes that a solid print in December IP would show that the industrial sector remains stable, while “a weaker print, on the other hand, may further stoke fears surrounding ongoing trade tensions and Fed policy.”

  • GBP – The table has turned for the Pound after yesterday’s climb to test 1.3000 to the upside amid continued hopes of an Article 50 extension with reports stating that the EU are prepared to delay Brexit until at least July. In terms of the latest, the Northern Irish DUP party is reportedly leaning towards a Norway-style deal if it removes the threat of a NI backstop. This type of deal would essentially remove customs checks and allow for trade deals to be struck outside of the EU, though one key rule which must be accepted is the free movement of goods, services, persons and capital to and from EU and EEA member states. PM May has scheduled meetings with party leaders (ex-Labour) to find some common ground before she heads to Brussels. Labour MPs have accepted the PM’s invitation to cross-party talks in a move which defies party leader Corbyn following his demand for a no-deal Brexit to be taken off the table before dialogue can commence. GBP/USD edged lower at the start of the EU session though further downside was seen just before the release of disappointing UK December retail sales (Y/Y 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.6%), with the ONS citing weak sales as shoppers brought forward spending for Black Friday discounts. Subsequently, Cable fell to an intraday low of 1.2930 (vs.; high 1.2993) and currently stands as the G10 underperformer.
  • EUR – Relatively uneventful and stuck in sideways Dollar-dominated trade as EUR/USD flirts with the 1.1400 handle ahead of the ECB interest rate decision next week where focus will be on EZ growth outlook. In related news, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has cut its 2019 Euro area growth forecast to 1.1% (Prev. 1.4%) and added that balance of risks remains clearly tilted to the downside. EUR/USD remains above its 50 DMA at 1.1380 ahead of heavy option expiries for today’s NY cut with 4bln at strikes 1.1375-1.1405 and a further 2bln between 1.1415-25 which may cap upside.

In commodities, Brent (+1.3%) and WTI (+1.4%) prices are benefitting from the positive market sentiment generated by potential US-China trade progress, currently just above USD 61/bbl and USD 52/bbl respectively. IEA’s report maintains their global oil demand growth estimate at 1.4mln BPD, and global oil supply fell by 950k BPD in December. However, the report does highlight that Russia raised their oil production in December to 11.5mln BPD and that it is unclear when they will cut production. For context, yesterday Russian Energy Minister Novak said that Russia will try to accelerate cuts in their oil output, but that there are technical limitations.

Gold (-0.5%) has suffered in the US-China stemmed positive risk environment, with the yellow metal residing towards the bottom of its USD 5/oz range. LME copper has breached USD 6000/tonne to the upside on reports stating the US are considering lifting tariffs on China; although this was swiftly downplayed. Elsewhere, spot palladium resides just below its all-time record of USD 1434.50/oz achieved on Thursday.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.6%; Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.3%, prior 0.0%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 96.8, prior 98.3; Current Conditions, est. 116, prior 116.1; Expectations, est. 86.5, prior 87

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Mrs May is the latest to pull out of going to Davos next week due to her pressing Brexit concerns at home. She’s followed Mr Trump (Government shutdown) and Mr Macron (Gilet Jaunes) as having more important domestic issues to resolve. I’m increasingly feeling like it’s only me (and Will.I.Am) going. Although I actually now have my own domestic issues that may threaten my participation. Yes my builders told me yesterday that my porch (or portico) on my renovation project is rotten and falling down so we need to urgently decide on options. Sadly the only viable option is to work harder to pay for a new one. As a reminder if you or anyone from your organisation is going to Davos next week please let them know that I’ll be speaking about “The end of the globalisation supercycle (1980-2016)” on Wednesday morning and on “Whether robots will take your job?” on Thursday. If you or they want an invite please contact me.

Meanwhile the rally edges on and US markets got a late boost last night after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US may be approaching a trade détente with China, though officials almost immediately refuted the story. The S&P 500 jumped as much as +1.11% on the headlines, which said that “U.S. officials are debating ratcheting back tariffs on Chinese imports as a way to calm markets” and that “the president has made clear he wants a deal.” Equities retraced a bit after a Treasury spokesman denied the reports, but the S&P 500 still closed +0.76% higher for its third day of gains and 9 out of 12 so far in 2019. The DOW and NASDAQ also posting healthy climbs of +0.67% and +0.71% respectively. After playing the hero the day prior, banks for the most part of the day, did their best to reverse that move post Morgan Stanley’s numbers (more on that shortly). The Huawei investigation also lurked in the background from the day before while a weaker than expected update from Societe Generale also weighed on European financials. Indeed European banks closed down -1.20% (after being +2.51% the day before) with US banks rallying from losses of -0.91% to close up +0.93% while the STOXX 600 clawed back earlier losses to finish broadly unchanged (+0.04%) by the closing bell. High yield spreads in the US and European were similarly muted but still edged -4bps and -2bps tighter respectively.

After the closing bell last night Netflix reported somewhat disappointing results for the fourth quarter, as revenues disappointed. The company’s topline came in at $4.19bn last quarter, versus expectations for $4.21bn, and its guidance for the current quarter was notably soft at $4.49bn, versus expected $4.60bn. Nevertheless, the company added a healthy 8.8 million new subscribers, taking its total number of paying subscribers to 139 million, which would make the Netflix nation the 10th largest country in the world by population. The stock is trading down -3.93%, but it’s still up almost 50% since Christmas Eve. Remarkable.

US equity futures are trading up +0.22% overnight while sentiment across the rest of Asia is being buoyed by the positive trade headlines from last night with the Nikkei (+1.25%), Hang Seng (+1.04%), Shanghai Comp (+0.79%) and Kospi (+0.63%) all up. In term of overnight data releases, Japan’s December CPI and core-core CPI came in line with expectations and both at +0.3% yoy while core CPI was a one-tenth below consensus at +0.7% yoy.

Back to markets yesterday, Treasuries had actually broken below 2.70% at one stage early in the morning before closing a few basis points off that at 2.745%. A stronger-than-expected Philly Fed reading helped the reversal while in Europe Bunds closed +1.9bps higher with BTPs +1bp higher. The ECB’s Lautenschlaeger stuck to the script in an interview with Politico, saying that she would wait for March projections before revisiting her view of a 2019 rate hike. Staying in Europe, it’s worth flagging an MNI article yesterday (which granted hasn’t proven to be the most reliable source of late) suggesting that the ECB is growing increasingly concerned about a deepening economic slowdown which could prove longer-lasting. The market doesn’t price the next ECB hike until mid-2020 anyways, so it’s clearly already taking a dovish view relative to the ECB at the moment.

We thought we all needed a breather from Brexit so we’ve shunted it down the pecking order today. In terms of the latest update, yesterday we got confirmation that the Commons vote on PM May’s Plan B will now be on January 29th with May presenting it on Monday. Corbyn did say that a second referendum remains an option but failed to commit to it. Corbyn also appealed to all Labour MPs not to speak to May’s government until she meets the party’s conditions for talks. That is: until ‘no deal’ is off the table. However it’s clear that several Labour MPs have already met Mrs May. It seems the government have issued a note alongside these cross party talks that suggests a second referendum would take over a year to organise which for them might be an argument for suggesting it as unfeasible. Most campaigners would disagree about the necessary time frame. Nevertheless you could argue that the very discussion of another referendum puts the option back on the table and slightly raises the odds of it being realised. Obviously, another referendum would inject another dose of uncertainty into the process though. On the other hand, anything that delays things over a year could at least kick the uncertainty down the road and maybe allow for a near-term rally.

We’re a very long way from such an outcome, but the pound rallied notably yesterday, advancing +0.83% to its strongest level in two months at $1.2992. The currency was perhaps supported by a coincidental YouGov poll that suggested support for “Remain” had increased to 56% and a 12 point margin over “leave” – a post-2016 record. Overall the market yesterday perhaps appreciated the combination of the potential for a longer delay to Brexit, some engagement by Labour backbenchers in talks, all options being discussed, a second referendum being mentioned, and the supportive poll. On the other side, May reportedly promised hard-Brext-supporting MPs that she would not agree to keep the UK in the EU customs union, which would presumably be negative for the likelihood of a soft Brexit but did nothing to dampen the steady sterling rally. Meanwhile, The Times reported that the DUP is now edging towards a customs union and The Telegraph reported that as many as 20 mid-ranking ministers have indicated that they are prepared to quit the Government so they can support backbench moves to stop a no-deal Brexit. Expect lots more conflicting headlines to come. As a reminder, earlier this week our FX strategistic published “it’s time to buy the pound”. The link is here .

Coming back to the bank results yesterday, Morgan Stanley shares closed down -4.41% after reporting a miss at both the revenue and earnings lines. Like the bank’s peers, FICC revenues tumbled much more than expected (down -30% yoy) and in fact the most of the five big US banks. In addition there was also a miss in the equities division although the outlook was left broadly unchanged. Here in Europe, Societe Generale fell -5.66% after releasing a Q4 profit warning which cited weaker performance in the investment bank.

On the Fed front, Governor Quarles, who admittedly is more involved in financial regulation than monetary policy, gave a rosy view of the economic outlook. He said “the core base case remains very strong” though “clearly markets are more attuned currently to the downside risks.” So yet another example that FOMC members are unifying around the same message of strong growth but heightened risks given financial conditions. After US markets closed, Chicago Fed President Evans repeated his recent dovish rhetoric, saying that the Fed is “at a good point for pausing,” and that there could be fewer than two hikes this year.

As for the US data, the Philly Fed business outlook reading printed at +17.0 for January compared to expectations for a much more modest rise to +9.5 (vs. a downwardly revised +9.1 in December). That’s the highest reading since October however the details were slightly more mixed. New orders rose to the highest since July last year at 21.3 however prices paid slid to a thirteen-month low at 32.7 – which plays into the Fed patience argument. On an ISM-adjusted basis the series actually slid to 54.8 compared to 55.3 previously. That’s a steeper slide than the move implied by empire manufacturing earlier this month, but the trend remains downward going into the start of the year.

The other data out in the US yesterday was the latest weekly initial jobless claims print which fell -3k to 213k and towards the current cycle lows again. The details did however confirm another tick up in claims at a state level in Washington, DC as a result of the shutdown. DC is in fact showing the highest level of claims since 1996, the previous record-holder for longest-ever shutdown.

Meanwhile in Europe there were no surprises with the final December core CPI reading for the Euro Area at +1.0% mom (unrevised versus the flash). Here in the UK there was some interest in the BoE credit conditions survey with the data revealing that UK lenders expect demand for credit card lending over the next three months to fall at the fastest pace since records started in 2007. UK lenders also expect mortgage demand to fall at the fastest pace in eight years. So certainly a softer survey and it’s worth noting that the BoE follow the data closely so something to keep in mind. On that, Dutch tech company Philips announced yesterday that it would close its factory in Suffolk and transfer its operations to the Netherlands. So the wider Brexit impact on UK growth is becoming more and more apparent and as our UK economists noted this will make life for the BoE difficult when undertaking the supply side review on the 7th Feb inflation report.

Finally, to the day ahead now where this morning we get the November current account balance reading for the Euro Area followed later by December UK retail sales data. This afternoon in the US there should be some interest in the December industrial production print (+0.2% mom expected) along with the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for January. Away that we’re due to hear from the Bank of Italy’s Visco and Italian Finance Minister Tria at an event this morning in Rome at 9am GMT, while this afternoon the Fed’s Williams (at 2.05pm GMT) and Harker (4pm GMT) are slated to speak. Schlumberger is the highlight on a quiet day of earnings releases.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 36.37 PTS OR 1.42% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 335.18 POINTS OR 1.25% /The Nikkei closed UP 263.80  PTS OR 1.29%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7787 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 52.59 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.74 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED /GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7787 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7874: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

 

i)North Korea//USA/Sweden

North Korea and the USA hold secret talks in Stockholm  It seems that North Korea really wants to dispose of its nuclear arsenal

(courtesy zerohedge)

US, North Korea Hold Secret Talks In Stockholm

A secret meeting of envoys from the United States and North Korea took place on Friday in Stockholm, Sweden on Friday, according to the Associated Press, citing an official.

Swedish Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Diana Kudhaib said the talks included North Korea’s Deputy Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui, however further details were not made available.

According to Sweden’s TT news agency, US special envoy for North Korea Steven Biegun and Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom were also in attendance.

“These are just talks in a minor format where international experts take part,” said Kudhaib.

Sweden has had diplomatic relations with Pyongyang since 1973 and is one of only a few Western countries with an embassy there. It provides consular services for the United States.

In March, Wallstrom held talks with her North Korean counterpart, Ri Yong Ho, in Stockholm, leading to the first-ever meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in June in Singapore. –AP

The meeting suggests that the US and North Korea are inching closer to a compromise after a months-long impasse over how to proceed with ending North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.

In June, US President Trump and North Korean President Kim Jong Un agreed on a vaguely-worded pledge to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, however progress has stalled as both countries have their own interpretations of the agreement.

Last weekend a letter from President Trump was hand delivered to Kim ahead of this week’s talks, while rumors were swirling on Monday that the two sides would meet in Washington. As we now know, the meeting was in fact held in Stockholm.

Kim also made a surprise visit to Beijing last week to meet again with Chinese President Xi – emphasizing that Pyongyang has friends beyond Seoul and Washington, and suggesting that China will remain a player in any future denuclearization plans.

A train similar to one seen during previous visits by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrives at Beijing Railway Station in Beijing, January 8, 2019.

Washington and South Korea have been discussing how the United States can reciprocate North Korea’s possible denuclearization steps, such as dismantling intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or the Yongbyon main nuclear complex, according to Reuters, citing South Korean Officials.

And in an effort to help mend relations further, South Korea on Tuesday agreed to stop calling North Korea an “enemy” in its biennial defense document – a white paper that was published and posted on the defense ministry’s website, according to AP. The use of the phrases “enemy,” “present enemy” or “main enemy” has been a longstanding source of animosity between the two Koreas.

Speaking of a second possible meeting between Trump and Kim, Cheong Seong-chang – a senior fellow at South Korea’s Sejong Institute said “At the second summit, they’ll probably focus on reaching a possible interim deal, rather than a comprehensive roadmap for denuclearisation,” adding “Whether Pyongyang is willing to abolish ICBMs, in addition to disabling the Yongbyon complex, would be key, and if so, the North will likely demand sanctions relief in return.”

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

i)CHINA

After seeing flash crashes in two of China’s major real estate developers, we are witnessing property developers implode as the market is freaking out over 55 billion dollars worth of debt coming due in 2019

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chinese Property Developers Implode As Market Freaks Out Over $55 Billion Debt Cliff

Earlier this month, when we reported that in the latest warning about China’s housing sector, the Communist Party’s People’s Daily warned that China’s regional economies need to reduce their reliance on the property market for growth and instead focus on sustainable longer-term development, we wondered if “something was afoot with China’s housing sector.”

The story is familiar: in recent years, hundreds of cities across China have seen upswings in their local property markets under a long-term plan by Beijing to further urbanize the country. The process of building new homes and revamping old ones has only accelerated in the last few years, backed by local governments keen to boost land sales and meet red-hot property demand. Indeed, the total sales of China’s top 100 real estate developers soared 35% last year. But repeating a now familiar warning that the party is over, Beijing has once again expressed concern that some cities, looking for rapid expansion, have grown their property markets too quickly and at the expense of new industry development, adding potential froth to real estate prices.

Two weeks later, our concern that something is not quite well with China’s housing sector was validated by the market overnight when shares in Jiayuan International, a prominent Chinese property developer, imploded in late trading in Hong Kong on Thursday, its stock collapsing 81% due to investor unease over a sector that is staggering under vast debts just as the world’s second-biggest economy slows.

According to analysts, all of whom were dumbfounded by today’s move, said that the stock, which flash crashed after a chaotic day’s trading that wiped more than $3 billion from its market capitalisation with the selling promptly spilling over to many of its peers…

… was engulfed by concern that Jiayuan would default on a $350 million bond that matures this week.

As we reported earlier this morning, the panic liquidation over Jiayuan also ensnared rival property company Sunshine 100 China Holdings, whose shares plunged 65% moments after Jiayuan’s collapse when traders realized that the two companies share a director.

“Some of these companies might have cross-shareholdings in each other and when one of those starts to tumble, it brings down other related stocks,” said Bocom strategist Hao Hong. “It’s likely more similar stock crashes could happen this year. A lot of share pledges in Hong Kong are underwater, and as soon as the positions are liquidated it triggers an avalanche.

The property development sector has become especially vulnerable to sharp selloffs as it has accumulated large amounts of dollar debt, while the flagging Chinese economy has boosted fears about future prospects for China’s housing sector in what may end up being the country’s first hard landing in decades.

But the biggest problem is the upcoming debt cliff, which will force the sector to refinance at the worst possible time: according to the Financial Times, Chinese developers have about $55 billion of maturing onshore debt in 2019, which as discussed this morning accentuates concern over potential defaults.

The sector is under pressure because of “potential concern over bond defaults, as [the companies] have offshore funding coming due,” said Morningstar analyst Phillip Zhong. As a result “the cost of refinancing is quite expensive.”

In hopes of reversing the market panic, the company published a statement on its website after the Hong Kong stock market closed on Thursday, in which Jiayuan said that it had repaid the $350 million bond, adding that “its current financial situation is healthy and business operations is normal.”

Clearly the market did not agree, although what exactly caused the stock to lose 80% of its value in one day remains a mystery, because while traders blamed everything from massive leverage, to stock pledges, to some variation of cross-asset holdings and interlinked collateral for the latest flash crash, the reality is that nobody really knows what happened as Castor Pang, head of research at Core Pacific-Yamaichi confirmed: No one really knows what’s going on here. For common investors, it’s a very surprising and tough situation as there was no time to get out.”

* * *

The bigger problem, beside the “avalanche” of overnight Hong Kong flash crashes is that after a boom in recent years, China’s property market is cooling, with developers forced to announce sharp price to move inventory, in the process leading to public anger over a sharp drop in prevailing prices. As we reported in October, this led to homeowners protesting in the streets last year in several large cities to demand refunds after developers cut prices to stimulate sales.

And then there is the issue of the $55 billion in coming property developer debt maturities which risks to blow up the local debt market as rates gradually rise. Refinancing maturing debt “has always been a concern for lower-rated companies” in the property business, and will be particularly urgent this year given the scale of the debt maturing, said Mr Zhong.

Quoted by the FT, Nicole Wong, an analyst at CLSA, noted that recent stimulus measures by the central bank are “aimed at only the very big [developers]”.

The silver lining is that the overnight crash in property developer shares was not enough to unsettle the wider Hong Kong market, with the benchmark Hang Seng index closing barely down.

Still, traders are growing more nervous that the tipping point is near: Wee Liat Lee, head of financial group and property research in Asia at BNP Paribas, said the issue of systemic risk “is a problem . . . the Chinese economy is pretty dependent on property as a sector, in terms of investment and reliance of local government on land sales and revenue”.

“But I think this is an issue the Chinese government realised a long time ago,” he added. “It’s a structural problem that takes quite a bit of time to unwind.”

Failing that, Beijing will just bail out the entire housing sector as it has done on so many prior occasions. The alternative is the one thing that keeps every politician in Beijing up at night: revolution.

END
For those of you who think that Apple iphone slump is transitory guess again:  Foxconn just cut 50,000 jobs due to world wide sales slowdown.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Foxconn Cuts 50,000 Jobs Due To iPhone Sales Slowdown

In the latest indication that the slump in sales of Apple’s most recent batch of iPhones isn’t a transitory trend, Nikkei Asia Review on Friday reported that Foxconn, one of Apple’s biggest and most important iPhone suppliers, is cutting seasonal staff more swiftly than in previous years, a sign that it is bracing for weak sales in the months ahead as the industry suffers its worst downturn in 10 years.

Screenshot

Normally, the 50,000 contract workers who have been let go at Foxconn’s most important factory in Zhengzhou would have been kept around for a few more months, as the manufacturer gradually reduced its employee head count.

The report comes after Apple announced plans to cut iPhone production for the second time in two months.

Around 50,000 contract workers have been let go since October at Foxconn Technology Group’s most important iPhone factory at Zhengzhou, in China’s Henan Province, according to an industry source familiar with the situationNormally, the contracts of these workers would be renewed every month from August until mid- to late January, when the workforce is traditionally scaled back for the slow iPhone production season.

The depth of the cuts isn’t deeper than in previous years, it’s just happening much earlier than expected, as many workers were asked to leave before year-end as expectations for holiday sales slumped.

The scale of the cuts is not necessarily deeper than previous years, it is simply significantly earlier, industry sources said. “It’s quite different this year to ask assembly line workers to leave before the year-end,” a source with knowledge of Foxconn’s reductions said.

Other important iPhone suppliers have let workers go much earlier than usual as they struggle with slower-than-expected demand for Apple’s iconic product. The California tech giant earlier this month shocked the market by warning of a slump in revenues at the end of 2018. This year is also shaping up to be difficult, with further declines expected in the smartphone market, while the ongoing U.S.-China trade war is taking a heavy toll.

Foxconn isn’t alone in its cutbacks: Other companies further down the supply chain are also cutting jobs.

Pegatron, Apple’s second-biggest iPhone assembler, began canceling monthly labor contracts in November. A source close to the company said its normal practice was to reduce the 200,000-strong head count by tens of thousands every month until reaching about 100,000 – the minimum required for daily operation, according to one source familiar with the situation. “And for [2018], it just happened sooner than in the past because of poor demand.”

Industry sources said early cutbacks were happening further down the supply chain as well. One key component supplier based in Shenzhen had asked 4,000 workers to take an extended “vacation” from October to March, a person with knowledge of the situation said. “The company has not actively laid off those workers yet. It will decide whether or not to lay them off after March 1,” the source said.

To be sure, Foxconn’s cutbacks stretch beyond its iPhone manufacturing units. It is also paring back the number of managers and consolidating business units as it aims to cut 100,000 permanent positions.

Meanwhile, Foxconn – formally Hon Hai Precision Industry – is in the middle of an aggressive cost-cutting program as it braces for a difficult 2019. In addition to letting contract workers go early, it is hoping to reduce expenses with an organizational restructuring, according to people close to the Taiwanese company. It has recently merged business units making Apple’s MacBooks and iPads with another division making laptops and desktops for Dell and Acer.

The result of the consolidation will be steep cuts to management jobs and back office support staff such as human resources, administration, accounting and finance, and utility support jobs. “Previously, each business unit had its own supporting staff, and by merging business divisions, Foxconn can slash some 50% of those supporting jobs and even condense managerial positions too,” a person familiar with the reshuffle told the Nikkei Asian Review.

The reorganization is part of Foxconn’s push to cut 100,000 jobs out of about 1.1 million by the end of 2018 across all of its affiliates and subsidiaries, as reported by Nikkei Asian Review in November. Foxconn aims to cut costs by some 20 billion yuan ($2.96 billion) in 2019 compared with 2018, according to an internal document dubbed the “1031 project” seen by Nikkei.

To be sure, Foxconn’s embrace of automation has been partly responsible for the reduction in its head count. But as smartphone sales slowed last year, Foxconn and other iPhone suppliers revealed steep declines in revenue, with Foxconn’s yoy revenue falling 8% in December compared with the same month last year.

But as Apple CEO Tim Cook has decided to stop breaking out iPhone sales and to place more emphasis on the company’s software and other product offerings should, investors (including the Oracle of Omaha himself) who are hoping for a return to $1 trillion market cap should probably hope that the company hurries up and launches its next-generation iPhone Air Pods. Or maybe – just maybe – cutting prices on its increasingly expensive flagship product.

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

/UK

Odey, a BREXIT supporter warns that if Great Britain does not leave the EU, a “revolution” will begin

(courtesy zerohedge)

Crispin Odey Warns Of “Revolution” If Brexit Fails

For Crispin Odey, revenge is a dish best served at 2 and 20 degrees.

The hedge fund manager, who suffered years of underperformance with many, including occasionally this site, predicting his demise when year after year Odey dared to “fight the Fed” and go all in on his bet for a “violent unwind” of the QE bubble, finally enjoyed a triumphant return in 2018 when, as we reported in December, his performance in 2018 was absolutely stellar, topping the HSBC hedge fund league table and generating nearly double the return of his next closest peer with a 52% YTD return for his European fund.

Now, still fresh from his victory tour, the billionaire hedge fund investor has once again turned to a topic that is near and dear to his heart, namely Brexit – which he backed and which has been the source of much of his profits last year – and in an interview with Financial News, Odey warned of a “revolution” if politicians fail to ensure the UK leaves the European Union.

While the high-profile investor, who donated generously to the Vote Leave campaign in 2016, prompted some confusion last was weekend when he quoted as saying Brexit “ain’t gonna happen” because “I just can’t see how it happens with that configuration of parliament”, speaking to Financial News, Odey elaborated saying his comment referred only to the short-term political outlook, and that he believes that Brexit can – and must – happen in the long run.

“All I was saying, which maybe was misquoted, was that it was very obvious, given the constitution of parliament, that we weren’t going to get a Brexit,” he said. “It doesn’t mean that they [politicians] are not going to get scared about what they are going to do when they have to face constituents, having promised that they would deliver Brexit.”

Odey then warned ominously that “in the long-term, usually what the people want, the people get. Otherwise there’s a revolution.”

His latest predictions come in a week of turmoil for UK politics, with parliament delivering a crushing defeat to Prime Minister Theresa May’s EU withdrawal agreement on January 15 and the PM surviving a vote of no confidence in her government just one day later. May will now work with MPs across all parties to try and find a way of moving Brexit forward, with the UK’s official exit date of March 29 fast approaching.

To be sure, Odey is anything if unconflicted: he donated £873,323 to the Vote Leave campaign. Along with Paul Marshall, co-founder of Marshall Wace, and Savvas Savouri, chief economist of Toscafund Asset Management, Odey is one of the City’s most high-profile Brexit backers according to FN.

He also restated his belief that the pound would now strengthen, having bet against the UK currency in the recent past. “Sterling has been oversold,” Odey said. “If sterling is likely to be rising, why be short on it?”

This is another trade where he has been spot on because after flash crashing early in January, on Thursday the pound rose to the highest since Nov. 15, squeezing numerous shorts, after U.K. opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said that a second referendum remains an option in the Brexit saga.

And in totally separate news, Orlando Montagu, a partner at Odey Asset Management, announced he is leaving the company in March to focus on his family’s famous: the sandwich. Montagu is a direct descendant of the 4th Earl of Sandwich, who was credited with inventing the snack in the 18th century. He will leave Odey Asset Management at the end of March after more than 16 years at the firm. He’ll work at his family’s mostly U.S.-based business, also known as Earl of Sandwich, which has plans to open in London.

Speaking to Bloomberg, Montagu, who is deputy chairman and part of the executive committee which runs the hedge-fund firm., said “the timing feels right. Crispin is performing well, clients are making money and the Odey team is upbeat.”

end

FRANCE

LePen is now moving closer to the centre as she states that leaving the Euro is “no longer a priority” .

A leopard cannot change it’s spots

(courtesy zerorhedge)

Marine Le Pen Says Leaving The Euro “No Longer A Priority”

Though they have calmed somewhat since they first erupted late last year, the Yellow Vest protests are set to continue this week as French President Emmanuel Macron’s offerings of olive branches in the form of rolling back a planned gas-tax hike (the original impetus for the protests), promising to blow out the deficit to offer more government benefits and even abandoning plans to go to Davos have done little to quiet the public outrage over his “presidency for the rich.”

Macron

And as his popularity drops to unprecedented lows, polls suggest that the party of his former rival for the presidency, the National Rally party’s Marine Le Pen, has overtaken Macron’s “En Marche” in popularity. And as Le Pen and her fellow pan-European populists organize to mount a credible challenge to the Brussels establishment during the upcoming European Parliamentary elections in May, Le Pen is making a notable pivot in her party’s platform, presumably to try and make it more appealing to more centrist Europeans.

According to RT France, Le Pen told the press on Thursday that leaving the euro – once a hallmark of her party’s position – was “no longer a priority” for National Rally.

“Unquestionably, the euro is a blow for France” but out “is no longer a priority,” Le Pen said Thursday, advocating a change in monetary governance of the European Union.

“If we change the monetary” governance and “we see that it is sufficient to allow the French economy to recover the handicaps that have been created by the currency, we will keep the change. We are pragmatic, we are not ideologues,” said the president of the National Assembly in the margins of her wishes to the press at the headquarters of his party in Nanterre.

Though opposing the euro will no longer be a priority, Le Pen had some disparaging words for the European Central Bank, a sign that she is pivoting to an economically populist agenda targeting inequality and immigration. Instead of directing its policies to the benefit of European workers, the ECB’s focus on inflation has led it to a monetary stimulus policy that has helped widen inequality.

“The governance that has been chosen and which aims for the ECB [European Central Bank] to fight only against inflation and to refuse to fight against unemployment, poses a real problem,” said the finalist of the presidential election in 2017.

“Money creation by the EU, instead of being sent to agencies to invest in the real economy or even directly to states…is for banks and is lost, diluted in the virtual economy,” she said.

Instead of focusing on leaving the euro, Le Pen would rather RN focus on border sovereignty and economic issues like the French budget, a position that echoes that of Italy’s populist leaders, who recently faced down the EU and won permission to blow out the country’s budget deficit.

end

GERMANY/HUAWEI (CHINA)

This is not good for China as now powerhouse Germany is exploring a ban on Jauwei products.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Germany Reportedly Exploring Ban On Huawei Products

With the US launching a federal investigation into Huawei over alleged theft of intellectual property from US carrier T-Mobile, and US lawmakers once again weighing a ban on sales of US-made microchips to ZTE and Huawei over suspicions that both companies violated US sanctions on Iran, the US’s campaign to shut Huawei out of Western markets took yet another step forward on Thursday when the Wall Street Journal reported that Germany is considering a ban of Huawei products in the country’s 5G networks.

The effort, reported by WSJ and German newspaper Handelsblatt, is focusing on indirectly banning Huawei from telecom networks’ “core networks” – the essential functionality of a mobile network. And while the effort is focused on 5G, it could also apply to 3G and 4G networks.

The German official said raising security requirements would be the only legal way to de facto exclude Huawei from all crucial tenders in Germany as the country has no other legislation that would justify an outright ban.

Though it hasn’t determined exactly how it would go about enforcing the ban, Berlin is considering tightening security requirements for building 5G networks, the next-gen wireless technology for which China has established itself as a world leader. The tighter security requirements, which  would be enacted following a campaign by the US to convince its allies to ban Huawei products in local telecoms networks on national security grounds, would make it effectively impossible for companies to use Huawei equipment.

Huawei

If Berlin follows through, it would represent a major blow to Huawei. Germany is one of Huawei’s most important foreign markets. And until now, Berlin has been incredibly open to Huawei doing business in Germany. Huawei’s European headquarters are in the German city of Dusseldorf.

Germany has the largest economy in the region of Europe, Middle East and Africa, a market where Huawei receives the largest share of its revenue outside China. In 2017, Huawei earned 27% of its $92.6 billion in revenue from EMEA sales. Reports last months suggested that Germany’s cybersecurity service was exploring setting up labs that would allow it to vet any security threats from foreign telecoms companies.

Perhaps surprisingly, Germany’s business lobby opposes excluding Huawei from the German market.

Dieter Kempf, head of Germany’s powerful business lobby BDI said Thursday that no equipment vendor should be excluded from Germany’s 5G network as long as there is no proof against them.

“I think it would be completely misguided to insinuate a danger of any vendor, no matter what its name or origin, if this hasn’t been proven,” Mr. Kempf said when asked about efforts to ban Huawei from the network build out.

The report comes as Germany is preparing to host an auction for 5G spectrum licenses this spring. The auction will see the country’s telecommunications carriers bid for rights to host ultrafast 5G connections. Huawei is already a significant vendor, but Germany’s Deutsche Telekom has said it would review its purchasing strategy in light of recent security concerns.

Predictably, China wasn’t happy about the news, and a spokesperson for the Chinese government accused Berlin of “politicizing” 5G.

A Huawei spokesman in Europe said “Germany is a big and important market. The German government has so far had a very balanced position and has been able to resist outside pressures. It is up to German authorities to make their decisions and we will of course comply and respect any decision.”

“But politicization of the 5G issue is proceeding in several European countries,” the spokesman said. “Limiting access to certain market players means prices would go up and innovation would slow down.”

Notably, Germany’s review of Huawei’s potential for security breaches follows the arrest of two men in Poland – including a former Polish security agent and a Huawei executive and Chinese national – on espionage charges.

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

This should shake up some central bankers:  The Turkish parliament is now set to grant Erdogan emergency powers to combat “”economic disaster”  Despite the fact that a family member is head of its central bank, he wants complete control.

 

(courtesy zerohedge)
.

Turkish Parliament Grants Erdogan Emergency Powers To Combat Economic Disaster

In what could be the biggest threat yet to the independence of Turkey’s central bank…

SS

…the Turkish parliament on Wednesday endowed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with untrammeled emergency authority to intervene when the country’s economy is under threat, Bloomberg reported.

Parliament voted late Wednesday to authorize Erdogan to take all the necessary measures in case of a “negative development” that could spread across the entire financial systemIt also approved the formation of the Financial Stability and Development Committee that will work to coordinate efforts against risks to financial stability and security, according to the law, set to go into effect following the president’s approval.

According to the new law, “the president is authorized and responsible for implementation of all measures beyond the powers” of members of the Financial Stability and Development Committee, which was also created by the law, and will be overseen by Turkey’s Treasury and Finance ministries.

Per BBG, the measure is intended to strengthen Turkey’s defenses against another downturn, like the capital flight that sparked a more than 40% devaluation in the lira last year. Though the lira has recovered off its lows, anxieties remain about Turkey’s foreign-currency denominated debt, which is creating problems in Turkey’s corporate sector – particularly among construction firms.

CDS spreads still indicate that default risk remains a concern for investors in Turkish assets.

Turkey

Erdogan is notorious for slamming the central bank’s high interest rates, sometimes using threatening language.

More practically, the powers will allow Erdogan to impose financial stability ahead of upcoming municipal elections, as the president, who was granted sweeping new powers after a constitutional referendum nearly two years ago, seeks to further consolidate his power following the end of a post-coup-attempt state of emergency that saw Turkish authorities arrest tens of thousands of people on suspicions of supporting US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen. The Trump administration is reportedly considering extraditing Gulen, who is wanted on charges of treason in Turkey.

 

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

MALAYSIA/GOLDMAN SACHS

Malaysia tells Goldman Sachs that if they repay the loss in the 1MDB scandal of $7.5 billion, it may drop criminal charges against the bank

(courtesy zerohedge)

Malaysia To Goldman: Pay Us $7.5 Billion And We Will Drop 1MDB Charges

The Malaysian government has a message for Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: Your disingenuous, blame-deflecting apology for Goldman’s role in one of the biggest financial frauds ever perpetrated in Asia isn’t going to cut it.

According to Bloomberg, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng told reporters on Friday that Malaysian prosecutors might consider dropping the criminal charges brought last month against the bank, several Asian subsidiaries and two of its employees (who have also been indicted in the US) if the bank agrees to pay back the total amount that the Malaysian government believes was looted during the fraud.

Malaysia

Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng

That amount? A staggering $7.5 billion.

“Goldman Sachs should understand the agony and the trauma suffered by the Malaysian people as a result of the 1MDB scandal,” Lim said in the administrative capital of Putrajaya. “An apology is just not sufficient. Not enough. There must be the necessary reparations and compensations.”

Earlier this week, Solomon apologized to the Malaysian people during an earnings call with analysts, where he blamed senior banker Tim Leissner (who is now believed to be cooperating with federal authorities to testify about the bank’s “culture of corruption”) for the scandal and claimed Malaysia was “defrauded by many individuals” who – as was implied – just happened to work at Goldman Sachs.

Lim characterized Solomon’s apology as “insufficient”, presumably because media reports have revealed that senior Goldman execs, including former CEO Lloyd Blankfein blithely ignored concerns raised by the bank’s compliance department and did everything in their power to court Malaysia’s business (Blankfein himself was involved in several meetings with then-Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is now awaiting trial on corruptoin charges, and fugitive financier Jho Low, who is believed to have masterminded the scheme).

Goldman earned $600 million in fees on the $6.5 billion in bonds it underwrote for 1MDB, which was launched by Razak as a sovereign wealth fund intended to fund public works projects.

“At least he accepted that they have to bear and shoulder some responsibility,” Lim said, referring to Solomon. “That apology of course goes some way toward that, but that is insufficient.”

While Leissner is cooperating with authorities in the US, his former subordinate, senior Asian banker Roger Ng, is being held in Malaysia.

Of course, Lim, as the country’s finance minister, isn’t authorized to cut deals with Goldman. That authority is reserved by Attorney General Tommy Thomas, the country’s top prosecutor, who brought the criminal case against Goldman.

 

 

7  OIL ISSUES

Very popular Art Berman discusses the false accounting of shale oil  The reserves are at best 60%  of what the owners believe they have

(courtesy Art Berman/PeakProsperity.com)

Art Berman: Exposing The False Promise Of Shale Oil

Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,

Estimates of recoverable oil are proving wildly wrong…

Art Berman, geological consultant with over 37 years experience in petroleum exploration and production, returns to the podcast this week to debunk much of the hopium currently surrounding America’s shale oil output.

Because the US is pinning huge hopes on its shale oil “revolution”, so much depends on that story being right. Here’s the narrative right now:

  • The US, is the new Saudi Arabia
  • It’s the swing producer when it comes to influencing the price of oil
  • The US will be able to increase oil production for decades to come
  • New technology is unlocking more oil shale supply all the time

But what if there’s evidence that runs counter to all of that?

We’re going to be taking a little victory lap on this week’s podcast because The Wall Street Journal has finally admitted that shale oil wells are not producing as much as the companies operating them touted they would produce — which is what we’ve been saying for years here at PeakProsperity.com, largely because we closely follow Art’s work:

The Wall Street Journal did some research and they got the general point that the wells are not as good as advertised.

But what they missed is just how much farther off many of these reserves are than even the discounted reserves that they’ve reported.

Bottom line: if the understatement is only 10%, that’s a rounding error and it’s not that much of an issue to the average person. But I’ve been trying for a decade to get the number that I independently develop to get anywhere close to the published numbers. In most cases, I can only get near 60% or 70% of them. So, the gap, I think is much more substantial.

The reason that The Wall Street Journal didn’t get it more right is because they don’t do any independent research and of course they didn’t talk to me, they didn’t talk to Dave Hughes, they didn’t talk to people who actually do the work, and so they’re getting one side of the story.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris’ interview with Art Berman (52m:56s).

end
With low oil prices it is not surprising to see the USA oil rigs plummet
(courtesy zerohedge)

US Oil Rig Count Plummets Most In 3 Years After Production Hits Record High

After surging 200k b/d in the last week to a new record for US crude production, Baker Hughes reports that the US oil rig count has plunged by 21 in the last week – the biggest drop since Feb 2016.

Is this the turn for the Permian? Perhaps, but, as OilPrice.com’s Nick Cuningham notes, while low oil prices are beginning to slow the growth of U.S. shale, in the years ahead oil and gas drilling could be curtailed by a different problem: a shortage of water.

Water is a crucial ingredient in the fracking process, and drillers use copious volumes of it. The problem for the U.S. oil industry is that so much of the output growth expected over the next half-decade or so depends very heavily on the Permian basin, where water is increasingly scarce.

Water already accounts for about 15 percent of the cost of a shale well, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. “In the Permian, total spending on water is expected to double over the next 5 years, to $22B, with E&Ps on avg using 50 barrels (bbls) of water for each lateral foot completed,” the investment bank wrote in a new report. “Assuming 10k lateral feet per well, this implies that the ~5,500 existing Permian well permits will require ~2.75 billion bbls of water to complete.”

That’s a lot of water in an area that doesn’t have a lot of it. “Given the sizeable water need, we believe drought and water scarcity present long-term risks to shale economics, particularly in the Permian, a core area of growth in a drought-prone region,” Morgan Stanley warned.

It’s worth pausing and noting that the warning is not coming from an environmental group, or even a local community organization opposed to a drilling presence. It’s coming from a major Wall Street investment bank, which says that drilling economics in the world’s hottest shale basin could be upended because of water scarcity.

It’s a rather ironic development. Greenhouse gas emissions from oil and gas drilling are fueling climate change, which in turn could make the most desirable oil and gas play increasingly costly due to growing water problems.

Morgan Stanley goes on to provide further detail into the scale of the problem. Morgan Stanley overlaid water scarcity data from the World Resources Institute with Permian well locations, finding that “53% of Permian wells being drilled today are located in areas with high water risk,” the investment bank concluded. “While operators are comfortable with water availability at the moment, there are precedents (most recently in 2011/2012 in Oklahoma) where severe drought conditions materially affected completion performance.”

There is also another separate water problem facing shale drillers. “Produced water” – water that comes out of a well when drilled – must be handled somehow. The volume of produced water that comes out of a shale well can exceed that of oil by a ratio of 10 to 1. The ratio also increases over time as the oil from individual wells begins to deplete, so the cost-per-barrel for water disposal also rises.

Water can be injected underground into disposal wells, which carries environmental and seismic risk. Or it is trucked away for recycling or some other form of disposal, often done by third parties, at huge expense. Last year, Wood Mackenzie said that the rising cost of water disposal alone would increase the breakeven price in the Permian by between $3 and $6 per barrel, potentially shaving off future Permian oil production by around 400,000 bpd by 2025.

Morgan Stanley notes that shale drillers are increasingly recycling the water they use to drill wells, injecting it back underground to be used again in the next well. That saves on water use, of course, but it also cuts down on the cost of water disposal. The investment bank says simply recycling water could save around $1 per barrel.

“Water risks to date have largely been described as a cost issue, but as projects continue to build scale, the risks become more serious,” Ryan Duman, principal analyst with Wood Mackenzie’s Lower 48 upstream team, said in a June 2018 statement accompanying the report. “They could impact the ability to actually carry out operations. Investors and project partners should challenge operators on how water is being managed.”

To sum up, costs could rise because the amount of oil coming from legacy wells is increasing as drilling proliferates; water scarcity is getting worse, which could increase the cost of water needed to drill a well; and as the Permian frenzy ages, drillers are pushed into less desirable locations on the periphery, where well economics may be worse to begin with.

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

END

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1406 UP .0014 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES green

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109;40  UP 0.255 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…DEADLY TO OUR YEN SHORTERS

GBP/USA 1.2943     DOWN   0.0040  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3267 DOWN .0015 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 1 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1401/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED  UP 36.37 POINTS OR 1.42% 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 335.18 POINTS OR 1.25%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.53%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED UP 263.80 POINTS OR 1.29%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 335.18 POINTS OR 1.25% 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 36.37 PTS OR 1.42%

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.53%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 263.80 PTS OR 1.29%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1285.50

silver:$15.47

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.76% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.09 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.04 DOWN 3 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.73% DOWN 3    in basis point(s) yield from  THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.02%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.35% DOWN 1   IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.73 DOWN 4     POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 128 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.26%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.47% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1362 DOWN   .0030 or 30 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 109.79 UP  0.645 OR 65 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2898 DOWN .0085( POUND DOWN 85  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 20 basis points to 1.3261

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.7773-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7985(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.3407

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.02%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 6 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.79 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.11 UP 5  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.31 UP 25  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 133.41 OR 1.95%

German Dax : UP 286.92 POINTS OR 2.93%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 81.56 POINTS OR 1.70%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 160.50 POINTS OR 1.80%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 237.68 POINTS OR 1.22%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.55 12:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 62.85 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.31  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.02 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 2 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.3407 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.26 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :   53.73

 

BRENT :  62.74

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.79%…

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.10%/

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1365 ( DOWN   27 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109708 UP 0.556 (YEN DOWN 56 BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.36 UP 30 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2869 DOWN 113 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3318

the Russian rouble:  66.18 UP .13 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 13 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3275 UP 6 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.7773  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8041 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.26%

 

The Dow closed UP 336.28 POINTS OR 1.38%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 72.76 POINTS OR 1.03%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.80 CLOSED DOWN 0.26 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.775%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/

 

FROM 2.780

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Small Caps Soar To Best Start Since 1987 As China Adds Record Liquidity

Wondering why stocks are soaring?

Simple really – Global Central Bank balance sheets are soaring again…

And China just injected a record 1.16 trillion yuan into the financial system… (yea trillion with a ‘t’)

Sigh…

Which lifted Chinese stocks handily…

And European stocks soared…

 

It seems the algos did not get the message the first time as Trade headlines pumped and dumped… and then they ripped…

 

Trannies are best this week…

 

Trannies are also the best performer of the US majors YTD, but the Russell 2000 is off to its best start to a year since 1987…

 

But Canada is better – up 7% YTD – the best start since 1980…

 

The S&P is up 4 weeks in a row – just like it was to start 2018…

 

 

“Most Shorted” stocks continue to squeeze higher (up 14% YTD!)

“Most Shorted” Stocks are up (squeezed) 13 of the last 14 days

But, as Bloomberg noted, bearishness remains stubbornly high, judging by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF. At 5.4% as of a couple of days ago, short interest is roughly double the two-year average (with most of that span of time covering a steady grind higher).

“Bird Box Buying”

Fannie and Freddie exploded higher on headlines that Treasury is considering how to exit conservatorship…

 

Tesla tumbled – catching down tot its bonds reality once again…

This was one of its biggest drops in history…

 

Credit Spreads collapsed again after decoupling initially from VIX…

 

Treasury yields surged across the curve this week with the belly underperforming (7Y +10bps)…

 

with 10Y yield at 2019 highs…

 

 

And investors should perhaps be careful what they wish for from stocks as the markets’ implied expectations for 2019 rate hikes has shifted back into hawk territory – now expecting 3.5bps of tightening…

 

The dollar surged this week – its first weekly gain in 5 weeks – bouncing off significant support at around 1180…

 

Yuan tumbled on the week – biggest weekly drop in 3 months (accelerating as the dollar surged this afternoon on trade talks headlines)

 

Cryptos were down across the board in a very choppy week…

 

Despite dollar strength crude and copper surged on the week with PMs weak…

 

WTI neared $45 but faces serious resistance…

 

Silver’s demise at the same time as Oil’s surging seems to have found historical support working again…

 

 

Finally, US equity markets are right back where they were at the end of the year… the year 2017!

And with a big h/t top Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg, we note that “More How fascinating to have seen on the same day a ripping production report on the back of the auto sector coinciding with consumer auto buying intentions falling to a five-year low.”

So if you bought the market today on the heels of great industrial production data – don’t hold your breath.

Spot The Odd One Out…

END

market trading/

 Nonsense! China offers to go on a spending spree on a 6 year calendar to the tune of 1 trillion USA dollars to offset the trade imbalance.  The uSA wants two years?.  It will not happen
(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Surge On China-US Trade Imbalance Headlines

Algos exploded in ebullience once again after Bloomberg headlines proclaimed that China has offered to go on a six-year buying spree to ramp up imports from the U.S., in a move that would reconfigure the relationship between the world’s two largest economies, according to officials familiar with the negotiations.

Bloomberg reports that by increasing annual goods imports from the U.S. by a combined value of more than $1 trillion, China would seek to reduce its trade surplus — which last year stood at $323 billion — to zero by 2024, one of the people said.

The officials asked not to be named as the discussions aren’t public (but were apparently willing to allow the leak to levitate markets).

However, Bloomberg points out that the offer, made during talks in Beijing earlier this month, was met with skepticism by U.S. negotiators who nonetheless asked the Chinese to do even better, demanding that the imbalance be cleared in the next two years, the people said. Economists who’ve studied the trade relationship argue it would be hard to eliminate the gap, which they say is sustained in large part by U.S. demand for Chinese products.

Yuan also surged on the headlines, despite the skepticism…

Bloomberg points out that it’s not the first time China has made an offer to reduce the deficit as a way of trying to break the deadlock between the sides which has darkened the global economic outlook and roiled financial markets since last year. In May, Trump scrapped a framework for a deal negotiated by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that would have seen China “significantly” increase purchases of U.S. goods.

market data/

 

No doubt phony numbers coming from the uSA: after terrible numbers for the past 3 months, we witness a 1.1% surge in manufacturing output..the most in almost a year…go figure..

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Jumps In December As Auto Manufacturing Surges

Despite the market collapse and sinking sentiment, Industrial Production rose more than expected in December (up 0.3% vs 0.2% exp), albeit with a downward revision for November. This was driven by a 1.1% MoM surge in Manufacturing output, the most since Feb 2018

In fact, U.S. factory production expanded in December by the most in 10 months, ending the year stronger than expected thanks to a surge in motor-vehicle output and gains across a range of other goods.

The data offer some relief after recent regional and national surveys suggested a worsening outlook for factories. While manufacturing is expected to keep growing, concerns over global growth and trade-war uncertainty may limit gains in 2019.

Production of motor vehicles increased 7.5 percent, the most since June, and other sectors with solid gains included petroleum and coal products, nonmetallic mineral products and computers and electronics. Industries with declines included machinery, textile and product mills and paper.

With the mass layoffs and plant closure that have hit since, we suspect this will not continue.

Utility output fell 6.3 percent, as warmer-than-usual temperatures reduced demand for heating.

And finally, the question is – will IP catch UP to the The Dow or The Dow catch down to IP?

end
Although a soft data entry point, we are continually getting poor performances from all sectors.  Today it is the U. of Michigan confidence index and it collapsed led by the important “hope’ category
(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich Confidence Collapses As “Hope” Crashes Most Since 2012

Echoing Bloomberg’s sentiment indicator, University of Michigan’s survey shows Americans’ confidence collapsed heading into January with ‘expectations’ plunging to Oct 2016 lows.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary January sentiment index fell to 90.7 from the prior month, missing all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The measures of current conditionsand expectations both declined to the lowest since President Donald Trump’s election in 2016.

Current conditions tumbled but the ‘expectations’ plunge is the biggest drop in ‘hope’ since Dec 2012.

 

Buying Conditions plunged also…

“The decline was primarily focused on prospects for the domestic economy,” Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said in a statement.

“The loss was due to a host of issues including the partial government shutdown, the impact of tariffs, instabilities in financial markets, the global slowdown, and the lack of clarity about monetary policies.”

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Trumps’s new plan is for missile interceptors, sensors and radars to shield every city in the USA

(courtesy zero hedge)

Trump Plans Missile Interceptors, Senors And Radars “To Shield Every City”

Thursday’s presidential visit to the Pentagon for the long awaited Missile Defense Review — the first such congressionally mandated assessment of the state of the nation’s defense systems since 2010 — gave Trump yet another chance to chastise NATO allies on his as yet unmet demand that they “step up” defense spending. He also hinted that he plans to stick by his recent deeply controversial decision to pull out of the Reagan-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia.

“We are committed to establishing a missile defense program that can shield every city in the United States and we will never negotiate away our right to do this,” President Trump said.

“We will insist on fair burden-sharing with our allies,” he said. “We’re protecting all of these wealthy countries, which I’m very honored to do, but many of them are so wealthy they can easily pay us the cost of this protection. So you’ll see big changes taking place.”

Foremost among the “big changes” Trump outlined during his formal remarks unveiling the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Review are plans to implement a system of 20 ground-based missile interceptors to be placed in Alaska which could “shield every city” in the continental United States. The goal would be to “terminate any missile launches from hostile powers, or even from powers that make a mistake,” he said.

This is part of broader plans to be studied and developed that aim to “ensure that we can detect and destroy any missile launched against the United States anywhere, anytime, anyplace.” Toward this end he outlined six major changes to Washington’s missile defense policy, including investment into “new technologies” such as space-based launch detection sensors, laser defenses, as well defending against hypersonic missiles, among other changes.

“The US will now adjust its posture to also defend against any missile strikes, including cruise and hypersonic missiles. And we are by the way very advanced also on hypersonic technology and missiles,” the president said.

And as expected, the most attention grabbing part of his speech, echoed in plans for research laid out in the Pentagon review, which will inform the White House’s Pentagon funding request for the upcoming fiscal year 2020 budget, involved comments on last year’s announced Space Force and integrating missile defense with space. He said the US must “recognize that space is a new warfighting domain, with the Space Force leading the way.” He further promised it will be a “very, very big part” of America’s future defense:

My upcoming budget will invest in a space-based missile defense layer. It’s new technology. It’s ultimately going to be a very, very big part of our defense and obviously of our offence.

We will ensure that enemy missiles find no sanctuary on Earth or in the skies above. This is the direction that I’m heading.

Potential plans and areas of further research laid out in the Pentagon review include “early warning systems” in space that could track missiles as they are being prepared for launch, perhaps ever more crucial given current reports of Russian and Chinese rapid development of hypersonic threats.

Embedded video

ABC News

@ABC

Pres. Trump says upcoming budget will “invest in a space-based missile defense layer.”

“We will recognize that space is a new war fighting domain, with the Space Force leading the way.” https://abcn.ws/2FFgkmc

54 people are talking about this

This will involve exploration of “a space-based interceptor that could fire rockets into space, directed at an incoming missile,” according to senior officials. This will also include study of the use of what an official described as “directed energy” against incoming missiles, possibly through laser technology.

On these and other technologies that sound straight out of Star Trek the concluding section to the now published Missile Defense Review itself reads as follows:

As rogue state missile arsenals develop, space will play a particularly important role in support of missile defense.

Russia and China are developing advanced cruise missiles and hypersonic missile capabilities that can travel at exceptional speeds with unpredictable flight paths that challenge existing defensive systems.

The exploitation of space provides a missile defense posture that is more effective, resilient and adaptable to known and unanticipated threats… DoD will undertake a new and near-term examination of the concepts and technology for space-based defenses to assess the technological and operational potential of space-basing in the evolving security environment.

Specifically the Missile Defense Review focuses in part on the capabilities and strategic intentions of rising threats like China and Iran, as well as North Korea and Russia. Trump’s remarks singled out Iran by name, also following similar words by Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan, while noting “foreign adversaries, competitors and rogue regimes are steadily enhancing their missile arsenals.”.

During this part of the speech he invoked Iran’s failed missile launch test on Tuesday which Iran had long said is part of a peaceful, UN-allowed space program to put satellites into orbit.

Trump continued of the proposed Alaska-based expanded defense shield, which would eventually be tied into space-based sensors, “It’s ultimately going to be a very, very big part of our defense and obviously of our offense,” and detailed, “The system will be monitored and we will terminate any missile launches from hostile powers or even powers that make a mistake. It won’t happen, regardless of the missile type or geographic origins of the attack.”

The president also boasted of American capabilities and his willingness to invest anything it takes to keep the homeland safe, saying, “We have some very bad players out there and we’re a good player, but we can be far worse than anybody if need be.”

But such advanced and futuristic sounding systems could still be a long way off before they’re realized, as the review lays out plans to study the possibilities of what’s tantamount to “weaponizing space” that will be years if not decades in research and development.

And no doubt, foreign nations and their defense sectors paid very close attention to Trump’s remarks and will be carefully studying the Missile Defense Review, especially competitors in Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang.

end
More evidence that the economy turned south:  Greenwich homes plunge 17% as they piggyback on weakness from Manhatten
(courtesy zerohedge)

Greenwich Home Prices Plunge 17% As Manhattan’s Weakness Shifts To The Suburbs

The slump in the upper tiers of the Manhattan real-estate market is already having a knock-on impact in some of the toniest tri-state area real-estate markets – most notably that of Greenwich, Conn., known for being a leafy suburban haven for hedge fund titans and other MOTUs.

GW

To be sure, sales of luxury homes in Greenwich have been falling for a while now, prompting many sellers to pull their homes from the market in the hopes that conditions might improve. But in a sign that wealthy New Yorkers looking to trade their two-bedroom UES apartments for a sprawling Fairfield County estate are being forced to scale back their budgets after their apartments didn’t fetch as high a price as they had hoped, Bloomberg reported that the median home-sale price in Greenwich fell 17% during the last three months of 2018 to $1.5 million. Overall purchases continued to slip, falling 2.2% during the quarter.

BBG

Real estate brokers told BBG that the weakness in the NYC market was largely to blame.

“The weakness in New York City has definitely played a role in some of the weakness that we’ve felt here,” said David Haffenreffer, brokerage manager of Houlihan Lawrence’s Greenwich office. Sellers who got less than they wanted for their city apartments “are in turn then dialing down their budgets when they get here to look at homes. Or, it’s just flat-out delaying their ability to buy here.”

And just as New York led Greenwich on the way down, sellers in Greenwich will be looking to New York City to determine when the market equilibrium has shifted back into the seller’s favor.

“As New York City finds its footing, so too will our markets,” Haffenreffer said. “We’re just waiting for those indications.”

And sellers in the high-end of the market have already largely pulled their inventory off the market, as weakness first surfaced in the market for homes selling for $10 million or more (a trend that some brokers blamed on a shift in tastes away from estates and toward more centrally located homes closer to down town and public transit like the train station).

In a town known for its $10 million-plus estates, most purchases in all of 2018 were for less than $2 million, according to a report by Houlihan Lawrence. There were 335 single-family deals in that price tier, up 4 percent from 2017.

Condos continued to be an appealing option for buyers looking to keep city-style living and amenities even after moving to the tony suburb. Purchases jumped 23 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier to 48 deals, Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman said. The median price was $746,250, down 3.1 percent.

Lately, weakness that was initially confined to hot urban markets has been seeping into the broader US housing market, as data showed sales slumped by double-digits during Q4, one of the worst quarterly showings since the housing recovery began.

SWAMP STORIES

Not good: Trump supposedly instructs Michael Cohen to lie to congress about the Moscow project according to BuzzFeed.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump “Personally Instructed” Michael Cohen To Lie To Congress About Moscow Project: BuzzFeed

President Trump instructed his former longtime attorney Michael Cohen to lie to congress about negotiations to construct a Moscow Trump Tower, according to BuzzFeed, citing two federal law enforcement officials who leaked the information.

Trump also supported a plan hatched by Cohen to visit Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign in order to personally meet Vladimir Putin to see if it would help get the project off the ground. “Make it happen,” Trump allegedly told Cohen.

And even as Trump told the public he had no business deals with Russia, the sources said Trump and his children, Ivanka and Donald Trump Jr., received regular, detailed updates about the real estate development from Cohen, whom they put in charge of the project. –BuzzFeed

According to BuzzFeed, Cohen told special counsel Robert Mueller that after the election, “Trump personally instructed him to lie” – by claiming that the Trump Tower Moscow negotiations had ended months before they actually had. The special counsel’s office also allegedly learned about Trump’s instructions to lie “through interviews with multiple witnesses from the Trump Organization and internal company emails, text messages, and a cache of other documents,” which Cohen reportedly confirmed.

This revelation is not the first evidence to suggest the president may have attempted to obstruct the FBI and special counsel investigations into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.

But Cohen’s testimony marks a significant new frontier: It is the first known example of Trump explicitly telling a subordinate to lie directly about his own dealings with Russia. –BuzzFeed

Trump repeatedly denied having any business interests in Russia while on the campaign trail – while simultaneously pushing for the Moscow project which he hoped could bring the Trump Organization profits in excess of $300 million. According to BuzzFeed, citing “two law enforcement sources,” Trump had at least 10 face-to-face meetings with Cohen about the deal during the election.

Last year, BuzzFeed reported that Cohen associate (and FBI asset) Felix Sater continued to spearhead the Trump Tower Moscow idea through June 2016 – communicating with “Russian bankers, developers, and officials connected to the Kremlin.”

Meanwhile, lawyers close to the Trump administration helped Cohen craft his Congressional testimony, including his draft statement to the Senate panel according to the report. This did not include former White House counsel DOn McGhan, who told BuzzFeed through an attorney: “Don McGahn had no involvement with or knowledge of Michael Cohen’s testimony. Nor was he aware of anyone in the White House Counsel’s Office who did.”

Following Cohen’s guilty plea, the special counsel’s office filed a memo in court vouching for his “credible” and “useful” information during seven interviews – adding that Cohen had provided details about his contacts with “persons connected to the White House” in 2017 and 2018.

According to BuzzFeed‘s law enforcement sources, Cohen confirmed that Trump directed him to lie to Congress, and that he had provided details of his conversations regarding Trump Tower Moscow with Trump, Donald Trump Jr., and Ivanka Trump – all three of whom have distanced themselves from the issue, claiming they had little knowledge of the negotiations.

Ivanka, however, was set to manage a spa at the tower and personally recommended an architect, according to the report. She also instructed Cohen to discuss the project with a Russian athlete who offered “synergy on a government level” in order to get the project moving. Cohen reportedly rebuffed Ivanka’s suggestion to meet with the athlete, angering Ivanka according to emails reviewed by BuzzFeed.

But a picture of their deep involvement is now emerging, as FBI agents and prosecutors pore over witness interviews and internal documents from Cohen and other Trump Organization officials and executives.

Trump was even made aware that Cohen was speaking to Russian government officials about the deal. The lawyer at one point spoke to a Kremlin aide as he sought support for the tower.

Trump also encouraged Cohen to plan a trip to Russia during the campaign, where the candidate could meet face-to-face with Putin. –BuzzFeed

Felix Sater, meanwhile, – a real estate developer, convicted felon and longtime asset for US intelligence agencies, tried to arrange a trip for Cohen to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum where he was to meet with top Russian government officials and bankers. In order to advance the deal, Cohen told Sater that Trump himself would also go to Russia after the Republican National Convention in July 2016.

Of course, buried towards the end of the story BuzzFeed notes “The trip to St. Petersburg never took place and the plans to build Trump Tower Moscow never came tor fruition.”

That said, “the negotiations occupy an important place in Mueller’s investigation, as agents try to learn whether it is connected to the Kremlin’s interference campaign and whom Trump associates were in contact with to close the deal.”

Trump, in his defense of the project, stated last November “There was a good chance that I wouldn’t have won, in which case I would have gotten back into the business, and why should I lose lots of opportunities?”

Meanwhile, big questions remain over how involved Trump’s children were in the project.

A spokesperson for Ivanka Trump’s attorney wrote that she was only “minimally involved” in the project. “Ms. Trump did not know about this proposal until after a non-binding letter of intent had been signed, never talked to anyone outside the Organization about the proposal, never visited the prospective project site and, even internally, was only minimally involved,” wrote Peter Mirijanian.

Donald Trump Jr., meanwhile, testified to the Senate Judiciary Committee on Sept. 7, 2017, that he was only “peripherally aware” of the plan to build a tower in Moscow. “Most of my knowledge has been gained since as it relates to hearing about it over the last few weeks.”

The two law enforcement sources disputed this characterization and said that he and Cohen had multiple, detailed conversations on this subject during the campaign. –BuzzFeed

Cohen is set to testify publicly before the Democrat controlled House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on February 7.

END
Skeptics shred the buzzfeed article above as nonsense: has not seen any evidence
(courtesy zerohedge)

Skeptics Shred BuzzFeed Over Trump Tower Scoop; Journo Admits He Hasn’t Seen Evidence

Skeptics are taking aim at a Thursday night BuzzFeed report that President Trump “personally instructed” his former attorney Michael Cohen to lie to congress about negotiations to build a Trump Tower in Moscow.

Less than 12 hours after the report, its credibility has been called into question after the two journalists who wrote the story gave vastly different answers as to whether they had actually the evidence – while many have pointed to the “dubious past” of reporter Jason Leopold.

Anthony Cormier, Jason Leopold

Leopold came under fire for a 2006 Truthout.org article incorrectly reporting that Karl Rove had been indicted over the Valerie Plame CIA leak case – claiming that multiple anonymous sources “confirmed Rove’s indictment is imminent.”

As we learned last week, Rove isn’t being indicted, and the supposed Truthout scoop by reporter Jason Leopold was wildly off the mark. It was but the latest installment in the tale of a troubled young reporter with a history of drug addiction whose aggressive disregard for the rules ended up embroiling me in a bizarre escapade — and raised serious questions about journalistic ethics. –Joe Lauria, WaPo, 2006

Bethany S. Mandel

@bethanyshondark

Was just tipped off via DM. This reporter is the first name on the buzzfeed byline. So yeah, my skepticism wasn’t unwarranted. https://archives.cjr.org/politics/jason_leopold_caught_sourceles.php 

Jason Leopold Caught Sourceless Again

Now that special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald has said that he will not seek charges against Karl Rove, will Truthout.org rethink their affiliation with reporter Jason Leopold?

archives.cjr.org

The other journalist from the Thursday night BuzzFeed report, Anthony Cormier, admitted to CNN’s “New Day” that he hasn’t actually seen the evidence in the case. 

Host Alisyn Camerota opened the interview by asking Cormier if he had seen the evidence to which Cormier replied: “Not personally.” He then clarified that “the folks we have talked to — two officials we have spoken to are fully, 100 percent read into that aspect of the Special Counsel’s investigation” –Mediaite

Except Leopold told MSNBC “We have seen the documents. We have been briefed on documents.” 

Embedded video

MSNBC

@MSNBC

“We have seen documents. We have been briefed on documents. We are very confident in our reporting,” BuzzFeed News reporter Jason Leopold, who co-wrote bombshell new report, says.

Stephen Miller

@redsteeze

Did you see evidence to support your report or not? Seems like a pretty important detail to get right between two people sharing a byline in your bombshell nail in the coffin impeachment of a sitting president. @BuzzFeedBen

Stephen Miller

@redsteeze

“I don’t think that we’ve said that we haven’t seen them.” – Leopold’s exact quote on MSBC after being asked about Cormier’s comments on CNN earlier.

Cormier’s quote – “No, I’ve not seen it personally.” when asked by Alisyn Camerota

Jordan Schachtel

@JordanSchachtel

Yep, toss it into the fake news bin https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1086253054482108417 

Jordan Schachtel

@JordanSchachtel

And now, The two BuzzFeed reporters on the “Trump directed Michael Cohen to lie” story have given two entirely separate accounts re whether they have seen the physical evidence detailed in their own report. 🤷‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/ZQiVmZqUs0

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Harlan Z. Hill

@Harlan

Wait wait wait…

BuzzFeed’s reporter hasn’t seen ANY of the “evidence” on which his entire story is predicated???

Like all the other Russia collusion BS, this all hearsay and slander. No proof of anything.

BuzzFeed is . 🇺🇸 https://www.mediaite.com/tv/buzzfeednews-bombshell-reporter-no-we-have-not-seen-the-evidence-supporting-our-report/ 

Despite not having seen the evidence at hand, Cormier explained his sources at length: “[Our sources] have been working the Trump Moscow tower portion of the investigation…before Mueller. So they had access to a number of different documents, 302 reports which are interview reports,” he explained. “That stuff was compiled as they began to look at who the players were speaking with, how those negotiations went, who all from the Trump organization and outside the organization were involved in getting that tower set up.”

Cormier was then asked about Jason Leopold’s dubious past, with CNN‘s Alisyn Camerota asking: “He was in trouble for perhaps claiming to have sources he really didn’t have. His stories didn’t wash. Executive directors and editors have had to apologize after some of his big blockbuster stories,” adding “How can you be certain today?”

To which Cormier said: “My sourcing on this goes beyond the two on the record,” adding “It’s 100 percent. I am the individual who confirmed and verified that it I am telling you our sourcing goes beyond the two I was able to put on the record. We were able to gather information from individuals who know this happened.”

Cormier told NPR‘s “Morning Edition” that they had “managed to find ways to verify these people’s stories off the record.”

Embedded video

Morning Edition

@MorningEdition

BuzzFeed News reports that Trump directed Michael Cohen to lie to Congress. @a_cormier_, one of two reporters who broke the story, says of their two law enforcement sources, “we’ve managed to find ways to verify these people’s stories off the record.” https://n.pr/2QZMYRw 

President Trump on Friday tweeted in response to the story:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Kevin Corke, @FoxNews “Don’t forget, Michael Cohen has already been convicted of perjury and fraud, and as recently as this week, the Wall Street Journal has suggested that he may have stolen tens of thousands of dollars….” Lying to reduce his jail time! Watch father-in-law!

Trump Jr. chimed in as well, tweeting “Here we go again… another CNN/Buzzfeed “bombshell” with no evidence. The usual clickbait BS… and when it fails as all the others have there will be ZERO coverage.”

Donald Trump Jr.

@DonaldJTrumpJr

Here we go again… another CNN/Buzzfeed “bombshell” with no evidence. The usual clickbait BS… and when it fails as all the others have there will be ZERO coverage. Textbook

Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸

@JackPosobiec

Buzzfeed reporter just admitted on CNN they haven’t actually seen any evidence that confirms their story

View image on Twitter

On Friday morning, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) said “We will do what’s necessary to find out if it’s true,” of the BuzzFeed report, calling the allegation the “most serious to date.”

NBC News

@NBCNews

“We will do what’s necessary to find out if it’s true,” House Intel Cmte. Chairman Schiff says of new BuzzFeed News report that President Trump told Michael Cohen to lie to Congress. https://nbcnews.to/2FFMVbw 

“The allegation that the President of the United States may have suborned perjury before our committee in an effort to curtail the investigation and cover up his business dealings with Russia is among the most serious to date,” Schiff tweeted on Friday – one day after President Trump canceled his 7-day overseas trip with Nancy Pelosi.

Adam Schiff

@RepAdamSchiff

The allegation that the President of the United States may have suborned perjury before our committee in an effort to curtail the investigation and cover up his business dealings with Russia is among the most serious to date. We will do what’s necessary to find out if it’s true.

BuzzFeed News

@BuzzFeedNews

BREAKING: President Trump personally directed his longtime attorney Michael Cohen to lie to Congress about negotiations to build a Trump Tower in Moscow in order to obscure his involvement. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/jasonleopold/trump-russia-cohen-moscow-tower-mueller-investigation?bftwnews&utm_term=4ldqpgc#4ldqpgc 

end
Trump cancels Davos delegation amid the shutdown
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Cancels Davos Delegation Amid Shutdown

President Trump on Thursday scrapped a scheduled delegation to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, citing the partial government shutdown.

Several cabinet officials were slated to attend the trip headed up by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Deputy Chiief of Staff Chris Liddell.

“Out of consideration for the 800,000 great American workers not receiving pay and to ensure his team can assist as needed, President Trump has canceled his delegation’s trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement.

Earlier Thursday, President Trump nixed Nancy Pelosi’s planned overseas trip to Afghanistan and other countries by refusing to provide military transportation for her delegation. The move came after the Democratic Speaker of the House “disinvited” Trump from giving the State of the Union address later this month.

The Davos cancellation follows an initial scaling back of the US delegation to the gathering of political elites which will run from Jan. 22-25.

Earlier Thursday, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) questioned why the Speaker’s trip was canceled while the Davos trip was still on the schedule.

“The president’s concern about [a trip] into a war zone apparently doesn’t apply to a delegation from the administration going to Davis the following week. Because we got confirmation that is still planned,” said Schiff, who added that President Trump is acting “like he’s in the 5th grade.”

Of course, Pelosi “disinviting” Trump from giving the State of the Union speech wasn’t exactly mature either.

end
Pelosi and her Democrat colleagues were furious with the cancellation of their trip to foreign countries. Trump claims that they should be negotiating the end of the shutdown
(courtesy zerohedge)

Pelosi Shrieks After Trump “Leaks” International Sojourn; Trump Dings Dems Over Shutdown “Excursion”

Democrats are spitting mad after President Trump canceled postponed an undisclosed trip by Nancy Pelosi and others to various foreign countries – revoking their military transport right as they got on a bus to depart on the trip.

Embedded video

Benny

@bennyjohnson

Oh. My. God.

The bus full of congressional Democrats had already *LEFT* the Capitol on its way to a military jet to fly to Europe.

They were *en route* when they heard that Trump had canceled their trip.

Bus forced to turn around.

Members “furious.”

(Via @jason_donner)

Now, Trump is being accused of putting lives in danger due to his “leak” of “sensitive travel.”

“After President Trump revoked the use of military aircraft to travel to Afghanistan, the delegation was prepared to fly commercially to proceed with this vital trip to meet with our commanders and troops on the front lines,” tweeted Nancy Pelosi’s Chief of Staff, Drew Hammill, adding “In the middle of the night, State Dept’s Diplomatic Security Service provided an updated threat assessment detailing that the President announcing this sensitive travel had significantly increased danger to the delegation & to troops, security, & other officials supporting trip.”

Trump noted in his letter Pelosi canceling her trip that she was welcome to “make your journey by flying commercial,” which Democrats were allegedly working on until Trump allegedly “leaked” those plans as well:

“This morning, we learned that the Administration had leaked the commercial travel plans as well.”

Drew Hammill

@Drew_Hammill

In the middle of the night, State Dept’s Diplomatic Security Service provided an updated threat assessment detailing that the President announcing this sensitive travel had significantly increased danger to the delegation & to troops, security, & other officials supporting trip.

Trump, meanwhile, tweeted on Friday: “Why would Nancy Pelosi leave the Country with other Democrats on a seven day excursion when 800,000 great people are not getting paid.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Why would Nancy Pelosi leave the Country with other Democrats on a seven day excursion when 800,000 great people are not getting paid. Also, could somebody please explain to Nancy & her “big donors” in wine country that people working on farms (grapes) will have easy access in!

 

 

The cancellation of the international trip was in apparent retaliation after Pelosi on Wednesday “disinvited” Trump from giving his State of the Union address until the government shutdown is over.

There have been no breakthroughs for a deal between the White House and congressional Democrats to end the longest shutdown in U.S. history. So far, Trump has refused to back down from his demand for $5.7 billion for a wall along the southern border, and Democrats are refusing to meet his demand.

There are nearly 800,000 federal workers who have not been receiving pay, although Trump has promised they will get back pay when the government reopens. –Politico

Steve Milloy

@JunkScience

What does that mean ‘was prepared’?

Sounds like BS.

What’s so ‘vital’ about @SpeakerPelosi going to Afghanistan, anyway?

Drew Hammill

@Drew_Hammill

Replying to @Drew_Hammill

After President Trump revoked the use of military aircraft to travel to Afghanistan, the delegation was prepared to fly commercially to proceed with this vital trip to meet with our commanders and troops on the front lines.

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

 

Treasury spokesperson tells CNBC: “Neither Secretary Mnuchin nor Ambassador Lighthizer have made any recommendations to anyone with respect to tariffs or other parts of the negotiation…” http://cnbc.com/id/105622838

Maxine Waters issues warning to Wall Street, lays out agenda as head of powerful committee

“The crisis was a result of Wall Street running amok,” Waters said, in reference to the 2008 financial crisis. “Large Wall Street banks are not subject to anybody and do great damage to our economy.”…

    “The CEOs of the banks now are saying, ‘What can we do to stop Maxine Waters because if she gets in she’s going to give us a bad time?’” the congresswoman said during a speech in Los Angeles last November. “I have not forgotten that you undermined our communities. I have not forgotten that you sold us those exotic products, had us sign on the dotted line for junk.”  Waters added: “What I am going to do to you is fair. I’m going to do to you what you did to us.”…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/waters-lays-out-agenda-for-house-financial-services-committee-promises-to-not-let-wall-street-run-amok

China’s Housing Market Slowdown Deepens

December marked the fourth straight increase in the number of cities reporting a month-on-month drop — 22 of the 70 major cities monitored by the National Bureau of Statistics…

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-01-17/chinas-housing-market-slowdown-deepens-101371195.html

Today is expiration for January options.  US markets are closed on Monday for the ML King Jr. Holiday

As noted above and below, the US political situation is worsening.  One big reason is that Mueller is reportedly wrapping up his investigation.  Leaks are proliferating by various factions to prepare the masses for what is coming from Mueller and Trump’s release of classified documents.

If the Ohr leak is correct, and the fact the MSM is not commenting on it suggests the story is accurate, a lot of Deep State actors will be in serious legal trouble; and the MSM, Congressional liars and Team Mueller supporters of both parties will have serious political issues – some could have legal issues.

At some point, markets will have to adjust to the worst US political environment since Watergate.

Skadden Settlement for Manafort Work Suggests Ex-Partner’s Peril

Firm pays $4.6 million for failing to declare work for Ukraine [Manafort is in jail for same offense]

   The partner has been previously identified as Greg Craig, a former White House counsel under President Barack Obama. The development suggests Craig may yet have legal exposure in the matter…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-17/skadden-law-firm-to-pay-4-6-million-to-u-s-over-ukraine-work

@NBCNews: Speaker Pelosi sends letter to President Trump suggesting they postpone his State of the Union address until after the government has been reopened, or deliver the address in writing, a practice that was common in the 1800s and early 1900s…

     In tit-for-tat response, President Trump informs Speaker Pelosi via letter that her foreign trip to Brussels, Egypt and Afghanistan “has been postponed” until after the government shutdown is over, unless she uses commercial travel…

 

LA Times’ @Noahbierman: A White House official says all congressional CoDels will be canceled during shutdown, not just those involving Pelosi.

 

Ouch! Pelosi Was On Tarmac When Trump Cancelled “Excursion” Overseas

https://saraacarter.com/ouch-pelosi-was-on-tarmac-when-trump-cancelled-excursion-overseas/

 

Trump also canceled the US delegation trip to Davos.  How will Bubblevision be able to endure that?

 

WSJ’s Kim Strassel: What Bruce Ohr Told the FBI

The Justice Department official’s testimony raises new doubts about the bureau’s [& Schiff’s] honesty.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-bruce-ohr-told-the-fbi-11547770923

 

Rudy G keeps making a fool of himself at an increasing rate.

 

Giuliani Backpedals on Statement about Trump Aides and Collusion

I never said there was no collusion between the campaign or between people in the campaign… There was no collusion by President Trump in any way, shape or form… Likewise, I have no knowledge of any collusion by any of the thousands of people who worked on the campaign… The only knowledge I have in this regard is the collusion of the Clinton campaign with Russia which has so far been ignored.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/us/politics/giuliani-collusion.html

 

An insightful story on DJT’s hiring/staffing snafus: Donald Trump’s Long March problem

Previous presidents have come to Washington after enough time in politics to develop concentric circles of loyalists who can take jobs at all levels of government… Trump… didn’t have that. In addition, he campaigned with an abrasive style that alienated a significant portion of the Republican Party’s political talent… Now, Trump’s style has led to an acute staffing problem across the administration and also to high-profile infighting in the White House…

     In Chairman Mao’s China, veterans of the Long March held a special status; they had been with the Great Helmsman for the entire journey. The situation is much the same in any American political operation, where candidates value people who have been with them all the way. In TrumpWorld, that’s nobody — outside the president’s family and a few assistants from Trump’s company

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/byron-york-donald-trumps-long-march-problem?platform=hootsuite

 

@paulsperry_: In off-camera remarks, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham predicted Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office will “leak” his final report to the media, even though Mueller is restricted by statute from making the confidential report public

 

Judge won’t dismiss libel suit against Fusion GPS over dossier

The suit alleges that Bean LLC, the parent company of Fusion GPS, and Fusion founder Glenn Simpson libeled the trio by circulating the dossier’s allegations that the men had illicit ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The suit complains that Fusion disclosed the dossier to various media outlets as well as prominent individuals in Washington without confirming whether the allegations about Fridman, Aven and Khan were accurate…   https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/17/libel-suit-fusion-gps-dossier-1106984

end

I WILL SEE YOU ON TUESDAY
H
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