JAN 23/GOLD UP 50 CENTS TO $1284.60/SILVER UP 4 CENTS TO $15.37/

 SORRY FOR MY COMMENTARY BEING SHORT

 

HAD A POWER FAILURE

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1284.60 UP $0.50 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $15.37 UP 4 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1284.60

 

silver: $15.37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

JANUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 7 NOTICE(S) FOR 700 OZ (0.0217 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  551 NOTICES FOR 55100 OZ  (1.7138 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JANUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 15,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 807 for 4,035,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3576: UP 5

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3576 UP   $1 

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 4/7

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,282.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/22/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 01/24/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 7
661 C JP MORGAN 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 7 7

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2025 CONTRACTS FROM 190,699 DOWN TO 188,674 WITH YESTERDAY’S 5 CENT LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED SLIGHTLY FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

1199 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1199 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1199 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1199 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.995 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

 21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

AND NOW: INITIALLY 5.805 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY: 31,876 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 31,876 CONTRACTS) OR 159.380 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2125 CONTRACTS OR 10.625 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  159.380 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 22.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           159.380    MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2025 WITH THE 5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A TINY SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1199 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL SIZED: 826 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1199 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2025 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 5 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.33 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .896 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 128% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 13 NOTICE(S) FOR 65,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ  AND NOW JANUARY AT  5.805 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5111 CONTRACTS UP TO 513,509 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $0.85//YESTERDAY’S TRADING)

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 8694 CONTRACTS:

 

FEBRUARY HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 8694 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 513,509. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,805 CONTRACTS: 5111 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8894 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 13,805 CONTRACTS OR 1,380,500 OZ = 42.93 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A TINY RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $0.85???

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 8815 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY : 119,138 CONTRACTS OR 11,913,800 OZ  OR 370.56 TONNES (15 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7888 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 370.56 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 370.56/2550 x 100% TONNES = 14.53% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     370.56  TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5111 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($0,85) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8694 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8694 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG GAIN OF 13,805 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8694 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5111 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 42.93 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $0.85 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??????????.  THIS IS THE 6TH STRAIGHT DAY THAT WE RECORDED STRONG RISES IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES!

 

 

we had: notice(s) filed upon for 700 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $0.50 TODAY 

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   809.76 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 809.76 tonnes.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/

A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.938 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2025 CONTRACTS from 190,699 DOWN TO 188,674  AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

1199 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1199 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2025 CONTRACTS TO THE 1199 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL LOSS  OF 826  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2.425 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER AND 5.805 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 5 CENT PRICING FALL THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1199 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.30 PTS OR 0.05% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 2.75 POINTS OR 0.01% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 29.19  PTS OR 0.14%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.26%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7871 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 53.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.02 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED /RED 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7871 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7971: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA/Sweden

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

USA/Yen rises (yen falls) hits 110 after they report an export slump.

( zerohedge)

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)CHINA

A good commentary from Jeffrey Snider today as he describes the decline of the euro dollar story is reaching its final chapters.  Euro dollars is simply uSA dollars held outside of the uSA.  Because of the lack of growth in the emerging markets, Asian markets and European markets, we are witnessing a decline in those dollars.  The high deficits of Trump is also sucking into the USA vast sums of dollars and that is killing the rest of the globe

( Jeffrey Snider)

 

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK

The Fed is now probing Deutsche bank’s role in the money laundering scandal with respect to Estonia’s Danske bank

( zerohedge)

ii)UK

The pound rises as the Labour party backs a measure to delay the eventual Brexit if no deal comes about by late February
(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)Tom Luongo describes May’s Plan B:  calling the remainers bluff

( Tom Luongo)

iv)EUWho on earth wants to buy this garbage: record demand for Spanish, Italian and Portuguese debt offering

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Canada

This is not good for Canada as retail sales tumble .9% month over month. Previous retail sales from August to Oct. were also revised downwards.  Canada has joined the rest of the world in a downward spiral

(courtesy zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)A very important commentary today from Tm Holland who correctly states that we must look at the current account of China and not just the trade surplus.  The current account is made up of a) trade surplus or deficit and b) service sector surplus or deficit.  China has a current account of negative because citizens are taking cash out of the country and buying things and they are buying greater than the trade surplus.  Trump’s trade war with China will have no effect and it will be impossible for China to respond positively to Trump’s wishes.
(Tom Holland/GATA)
ii)You know the end game is upon us when you see big mergers in the gold mining field( Jjini/Bloomberg/GATA)

iii)Ron Paul on the auditing of the Fed

( Ron Paul)

iv)Now Arizona is proposing securing the state’s financial reserves into gold and silver

( Cortez/GATA)

 

v)The CEO of the Moscow Stock Exchange wants to replace USA gold with Russian gold

( GATA/RT))

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

Mid morning

Stocks Give Up Early Gains As Dollar Dumps, VIX Jumps

China trade talks stalling, shutdown impasse, and Hassett warning growth could be zero… it seems that ‘bad news’ is bad news again!!

S&P was up 0.8% early – that’s all gone now…

As VIX spiked…

With Nasdaq leading the drop since Friday…

 

And as stocks sank so did the dollar…

Did anyone else notice that US equity market stopped going up when China stopped adding trillions in liquidity?

end

ii)Market data/

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Mish talks about 8 wall prototypes of which none meet operational standards or for that matter, Trump’s cost estimate..and it is far less than thought…

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

b)The Shutdown is now 31 days and we have now have two missing paycheck periods.  It seems that the IRS employees are starting to bail

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Buzz Feed actually details documents on the Trump Tower project in Moscow

( zerohedge)

b)Trump is now furious with Giuliani after many botched interview

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

 

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN ROSE BY AN CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5111 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 513,509 DESPITE THE TINY RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($0.85) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8694 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR FEBRUARY:  8694 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8694 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  13,509 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8694 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5111 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13,805 contracts OR 1,380,500  OZ OR 42.93 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of JANUARY and here the open interest stands at 55 contracts as we GAINED 5 contracts. We had 2 notices filed on yesterday so we GAINED 7 contracts or 700 ADDITIONAL oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next active delivery month is February and here the OI LOST  23,478 contracts DOWN to 202,452 contracts.  After February, March GAINED 80 contracts to stand at 1124.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI rose by 25,175 contracts up to 209,840 contracts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE  January 2018 contract month

 

 

ON JANUARY 1/2018: 1.297 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY  (Jan 1 2019 initial standing 1.306 tonnes)

EVENTUALLY ON JAN 31.2018: 2.17 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX

 

 

WE HAD 7 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 700 OZ. (0..0217 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2025 CONTRACTS FROM 190,699 DOWN TO 188,674(AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS 357 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 10 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 13 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR  15,000 ADDITIONAL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR SILVER AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IS THE NORM AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THE DEALERS SCRAMBLE FOR WHATEVER PHYSICAL THEY CAN OBTAIN.

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS FEBRUARY AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 3 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 449. AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 2885 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 138,907 CONTRACTS.

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 826 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 2025 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1199 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  826 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH A 5 CENT FALL IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH AND JANUARY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE JAN 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD A GOOD 2.695 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY’

AT THE CONCLUSION OF JAN/2018 WE HAD 3.650 MILLION OZ STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NORM FOR SILVER

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000 OZ for the FEB, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  371,205 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  265.854  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 23/2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

NIL

 

OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
7 notice(s)
 700 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
48 contracts
(4800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
551 notices
55,100 OZ
1.7138 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  NIL oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  nil oz

 

we had 0  adjustments….

FOR THE JAN 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 7 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (551) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (55 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (7 x 100 oz per contract) equals 59,900 OZ OR 1.863 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON  active month of JANUARY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (551 x 100 oz)  + {55)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (7 x 100 oz )which equals 59,900 oz standing OR 1.863 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JANUARY.

Today we GAINED 7 contracts or an additional 700 oz will stand in this non active month of January

.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.11 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.863 TONNES STANDING FOR JANUARY

LAST MONTH WE HAVE 23.37 TONNES OF GOLD SUPPOSEDLY DELIVERED UPON BUT THIS AMOUNT OF GOLD DID NOT LEAVE THE REGISTERED GOLD CATEGORY AT THE COMEX.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  743,019.277 oz or   23.11 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,405,974.987 oz 261.46 tonnes

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 93 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

JAN INITIAL standings/SILVER

JAN 23, 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
519,909.208 oz
Delaware
CNT
Scotia
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
619,094.98 oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
598,902.180 oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
3
CONTRACT(S)
15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
354 contracts
1,770,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 807 contracts

(4,035,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into Brinks:  619,094.98 0z

 

total dealer deposits:  619,094.98  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.51% of all official comex silver. (147.7 million/293 million)

ii) into Scotia:  598,902.180 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 598,902.180   oz

we had 4 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of DELAWARE:  15,060.173 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 16,196.225 oz
iii) Out of Scotia; 288,627.310 oz
iv) Out of Brinks: 200,023.500 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  519,908.208   oz

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

total dealer silver:  86.677 million

total dealer + customer silver:  296.101 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY 2019. contract month is represented by 13 contract(s) FOR 65,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 807 x 5,000 oz = 4,035,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (357) and the number of notices served upon today (3x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY/2019 contract month: 804(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN( 357) -number of notices served upon today (3)x 5000 oz equals 5,805,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month. We gained 3 contracts or an additional 15,000 oz will  stand for delivery and these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  82,222 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 58,407 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 58,407 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 292 million OZ  41.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.94% (JAN 23/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.77% to NAV (JAN 23 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.94%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.01/TRADING 12.58/DISCOUNT 3.37

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP 50 CENTS: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD UP A TINY $.85 A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE FRAUDULENT GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 STRANGELY A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $8.65: A MASSIVE 15.88 TONNES WAS ADDED INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 790.02 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $0.15: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $15.15: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.15 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.14 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JAN 23/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 809.76 tonnes

*IN LAST 539 TRADING DAYS: 125.39 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 439 TRADING DAYS: A NET 34.64 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: A HUGE LOSS OF 938,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.179 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/SLV IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.189 MILLION OZ/

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/NO DOUBT THE MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF PAPER SILVER WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.895 MILLION OZ./INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110 MILLION OZ/

JAN 16/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.158 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.005 MILLION OZ/

JAN 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 469,000 OZ FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.163 MILLION OZ/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN ADDITION OF 94,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317,233

DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.408 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/ INV. RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

 

 

JAN 23/2019:

 

Inventory 307.251 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.26/ and libor 6 month duration 2.85

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .59

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.58%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.04

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.46

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold May R

 

GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
A very important commentary today from Tm Holland who correctly states that we must look at the current account of China and not just the trade surplus.  The current account is made up of a) trade surplus or deficit and b) service sector surplus or deficit.  China has a current account of negative because citizens are taking cash out of the country and buying things and they are buying greater than the trade surplus.  Trump’s trade war with China will have no effect and it will be impossible for China to respond positively to Trump’s wishes.
(Tom Holland/GATA)

Tom Holland: There’s really no Chinese trade surplus anymore

 Section: 

By Tom Holland
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Monday, January 21, 2019

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2182799/truth-about-china…

When Donald Trump complains about China’s trade practices, he inevitably points at China’s monster trade surplus with the United States as evidence the Chinese are cheating.

At first glance, it looks as if the US president might have a point. According to US Census Bureau data, over the 12 months to October China ran a US$410 billion merchandise trade surplus with the US — the biggest such imbalance on record.

… 

 

..But to focus on China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US is misleading. Viewed in broader terms, China’s trade imbalance shrinks. Over the same period its overall goods trade surplus with the world was US$360 billion.

And viewed in the broadest terms of all, it disappears altogether. Over the first nine months of last year, China actually ran a current account deficit.

In effect this means China was running an overdraft with the rest of the world.

This deficit may not last; there are good cyclical reasons to think China’s current account is likely to swing back into a small surplus this year.

Nevertheless, the shift which has seen China’s current account balance shrink from a surplus equal to 10 per cent of its gross domestic product 10 years ago to near zero today is a major structural change which will have far-reaching implications for the global economy.

Most observers, including Trump, have yet to get their heads around this change. The majority still think of China as a surplus country.

But generally when people talk about China’s trade balance, they are only thinking of its trade in physical stuff. China’s goods trade with the rest of the world is indeed in surplus. But over the last 10 years its trade balance in services has swung from zero to a deficit of around US$300 billion.

It’s not hard to find the explanation. China hasn’t taken to importing banking or insurance services from its trading partners. Nor are Chinese companies paying Google vastly more for advertising services.

What has changed is that more and more Chinese tourists are traveling abroad — more than 130 million of them last year. And they are spending freely when they do, which counts in China’s balance of payments as an import of services.

As a result, China’s net imports of services have climbed to a level where they almost offset its net exports of goods. Add in the investment income repatriated by foreign investors in China, which more than offsets inflows from Chinese investments abroad, and China’s overall current account balance with the rest of the world has shrunk almost to zero.

This doesn’t mean that the pendulum is set to swing further, carrying China into a large external deficit. The most rapid phase of China’s outbound tourism growth is over, and over the last couple of years the increase in departures has slowed. This suggests the structural shift in China’s external balance is on pause.

Meanwhile, cyclical forces are likely to move China’s current account back into a small surplus this year. In 2018, the value of China’s net goods exports contracted because the price of key imports went up. The price of oil averaged US$72 a barrel last year, up from US$55 in 2017. At the same time, benchmark prices for semiconductors almost doubled. Together these increases knocked more than US$100 billion off China’s trade surplus in goods.

With China and other major economies set to slow this year, weaker demand is likely to lead to lower prices for both oil and semiconductors, pushing China’s current account balance back into a small surplus.

Even so, the fact remains that over this decade, a major economic shift has taken place which has all but eliminated the large structural surplus in China’s current account.

It is hard to overstate the importance of this shift, both for China and for the global economy.

A large current account surplus is a sign that an economy is producing far more than it consumes domestically. By the same token, if an economy is consuming much less than it produces, it is saving far more of its income than it needs to finance its domestic investments.

In other words, China’s large current account surplus in the 2000s was the flip-side of the Chinese savings glut that many economists blame for causing the global financial crisis.

There are two ways to eliminate such a glut. An economy can ramp up its investment. Or it can save less of its income, which necessarily means consuming more. The recent decline in China’s investment rate indicates that it is not the former. So it must be the latter: China is saving less and consuming more.

In short, China’s economy is finally seeing the long-awaited rebalancing that former premier Wen Jiabao identified as essential to its long term health as long ago as 2007.

That’s good for China. It means less chance of over-investment, and greater sustainability in the long run.

And it’s good for the rest of the world. Economists frequently say that China has been the greatest contributor to global economic growth over recent years. Strictly speaking that’s true, but it is also misleading.

China’s large surplus in net exports added to China’s growth. But it meant that the rest of the world ran a net export deficit with China, which subtracted from economic growth outside China.

Sure, China’s rise boosted individual economies that ran surpluses with China; Australia is a prime example. But for the rest of the world as a whole, the tyranny of arithmetic meant that China’s structural current account surplus detracted from economic growth.

Now that surplus is largely eliminated, China is no longer a drag on growth in the rest of the world as a whole. That’s clearly positive. Just don’t expect Donald Trump to see it that way.

—–

Tom Holland is a former South China Morning Post staffer who has been writing about Asian affairs for more than 25 years.

END

You know the end game is upon us when you see big mergers in the gold mining field

(courtesy Jjini/Bloomberg/gATA)

Gold Fields reported interested in merging with AngloGold

 Section: 

By Fliex Njini
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Gold Fields Ltd. would like to merge with its larger South African rival AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. as the industry experiences a wave of consolidation, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Gold Fields believes it would be the ideal combination as the two miners operate in similar jurisdictions and have a shared philosophy, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. Discussions haven’t taken place yet, the person said.

Gold Fields denied it’s interested in combining with AngloGold, according to a statement issued to the Johannesburg Stock Exchange today. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-22/gold-fields-is-said-t…

 

END

Ron Paul on the auditing of the Fed

(courtesy Ron Paul)

Ron Paul: Fire the Fed? You can’t even audit it

 Section: 

By Ron Paul
Ron Paul Institute, Clute, Texas
Monday, January 21, 2019

http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/january/21/f…

President Trump’s frustration with the Federal Reserve’s (minuscule) interest rate increases that he blames for the downturn in the stock market has reportedly led him to inquire if he has the authority to remove Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Chairman Powell has stated that he would not comply with a presidential request for his resignation, meaning President Trump would have to fire Powell if Trump was serious about removing him.

 

The law creating the Federal Reserve — gives the president power to remove members of the Federal Reserve Board — including the chairman — “for cause.” The law is silent on what does, and does not, constitute a justifiable cause for removal. So, President Trump may be able to fire Powell for not tailoring monetary policy to the president’s liking.

By firing Powell, President Trump would once and for all dispel the myth that the Federal Reserve is free from political interference. All modern presidents have tried to influence the Federal Reserve’s policies. Is Trump’s threatening to fire Powell worse than President Lyndon Johnson shoving a Fed chairman against a wall after the Federal Reserve increased interest rates? Or worse than President Carter “promoting” an uncooperative Fed chairman to Treasury secretary?

Yet, until President Trump began attacking the Fed on Twitter, the only individuals expressing concerns about political interference with the Federal Reserve in recent years were those claiming the Audit the Fed bill politicizes monetary policy. The truth is that the audit bill, which was recently reintroduced in the House of Representatives by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and will soon be reintroduced in the Senate by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), does not in any way expand Congress’ authority over the Fed. The bill simply authorizes the General Accountability Office to perform a full audit of the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy, including the Fed’s dealings with Wall Street and foreign central banks and governments.

Many Audit the Fed supporters have no desire to give Congress or the president authority over any aspect of monetary policy, including the ability to set interest rates. Interest rates are the price of money. Like all prices, interest rates should be set by the market, not by central planners. It is amazing that even many economists who generally support free markets and oppose central planning support allowing a government-created central bank to influence something as fundamental as the price of money.

Those who claim that auditing the Fed will jeopardize the economy are implicitly saying that the current system is flawed. After all, how stable can a system be if it is threatened by transparency?

Auditing the Fed is supported by nearly 75 percent of Americans. In Congress, the bill has been supported not just by conservatives and libertarians, but by progressives in Congress like Dennis Kucinich, Bernie Sanders, and Peter DeFazio. President Trump championed auditing the Federal Reserve during his 2016 campaign. But, despite his recent criticism of the Fed, he has not promoted the legislation since his election.

As the US economy falls into another Federal Reserve-caused economic downturn, support for auditing the Fed will grow among Americans of all political ideologies. Congress and the president can and must come together to tear down the wall of secrecy around the central bank. Auditing the Fed is the first step in changing the monetary policy that has created a debt-and-bubble-based economy; facilitated the rise of the welfare-warfare state; and burdened Americans with a hidden, constantly increasing, and regressive inflation tax.

—–

Ron Paul is a former U.S. representative and presidential candidate.

.END

Now Arizona is proposing securing the state’s financial reserves into gold and silver

(courtesy Cortez/GATA)

Arizona legislator proposes securing state’s financial reserves with gold and silver

 Section: 

By JP Cortez
Sound Money Defense League, Eagle, Idaho
Tuesday, January 22, 2019

PHOENIX, Arizona — An Arizona legislator has put forward a bill to de-risk the state’s financial holdings with a modest allocation to physical gold and silver in the state’s reserve fund.

Introduced by state Rep. Mark Finchem, R-Tucson, the Arizona Sound Money Stabilization Act (HB 2500) requires that at least 10 percent of Arizona’s Budget Stabilization Fund be held in the monetary metals in a secure depository.

… 

 

Arizona’s Budget Stabilization Fund has almost $500 million in assets but is currently invested in debt instruments and the stock market. The state owns no gold or silver.

Finchem’s past sound money initiatives have been successful. In 2017 Finchem arranged passage of the groundbreaking House Bill 2014, a measure which removed all income taxation of gold and silver at the state level.

Gold and silver do not have the default or inflation risks that bonds and other “fixed income” investments carry. Most importantly, physical gold and silver held in a depository carry no counterparty risk — or risk of failure or default — unlike stocks, bonds, and other financial assets. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2019/01/22/arizona-silver-gold-reserve-…

END

The CEO of the Moscow Stock Exchange wants to replace USA gold with Russian gold

(courtesy GATA/RT))

 

Replace U.S. dollar with Russian gold, Moscow exchange chief suggests

 Section: 

From Russia Today, Moscow
Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Russian gold could become the perfect alternative to conservative investments in the greenback, the CEO of Russia’s key trading floor, the Moscow Exchange, believes.

“Let’s offer an alternative to the U.S. dollar in the form of Russian gold, which we produce — investment gold,” CEO Alexander Afanasiev suggested, speaking in the lower house of Russia’s parliament on Monday.

He added that some “super-conservative investors” purchase dollars and keep them “under the pillow,” which is not very safe, he believes. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.rt.com/business/449421-russian-gold-replace-dollar/

END





iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A good article today from Bill Holter
(courtesy Bill Holter)

I wrote “Crash Alert!” on Dec. 12, a little over a month ago https://www.milesfranklin.com/crash-alert-3/#respondPlease re read this so we don’t have to go over the nuts and bolts here. Since then, we watched equity markets all over the world take a dive into year end where most finished in bear market territory. As the new year started, we have seen equity markets bounce to relieve the vast oversold conditions. I believe the “dead cat” bounce phase has now run its course and the selling will resume shortly and into an outright panic mode.

Over the last month we have learned more regarding the real economies, very little of it good. The most important areas of weakness are trade and real estate volume/price weakness worldwide. Both of these are in confirmed downtrends and both are lynchpins to the financial system. Trade, because it provides “cash flow”, and real estate not only because it is a global asset of “wealth” but more importantly because real estate is COLLATERAL. This last point is very important because “collateral” to the banking (financial) system is now smaller than it was 6+ months ago when it was already too thin. Remember, higher rates had already directly affected bonds (collateral), now real estate is an obvious symptom of weakness and collateral shrinkage.

Back in early December I warned that liquidity was drying up and would culminate in a panic move. This did occur and the response from central banks has been as expected, they blinked. The ECB’s balance sheet shows zero sign of shrinking as promised. The PBOC has lowered the RRR rate earlier in the month and they also pumped the financial system with nearly $100 billion just last week alone. The Fed has also made mention of less or no more rate hikes in dovish fashion. Oddly, we now know publicly that the “plunge protection team” does in fact exist as CNBC and others were applauding. No more conspiracy theory with this one …

So here we are after the bounce and after the oversold pressures have been released. I believe we are now set for the event that will make history, namely a financial train wreck in a very compressed time frame. Why do I see this? Because of the backdrop and where we have come from to where math and logic say we will ultimately go. Think about the “backdrop” for a moment. The world is awash in debt that cannot be paid back which very importantly includes the issuer of the reserve currency, the U.S.. From a timing standpoint, maybe the most important backdrop is on the geo political front. All over the world, the globalists are being pushed back by populists as even former presidents in various nations have recently been arrested and protests by the great unwashed abound.

My point is this, in the real world …the populace has had enough of higher taxes and stagnant/declining living standards while being told everything is great. Though not to their liking, globalists are being routed.

Market psychology has already been cracked, during normal times we would at least retest the lows but these are far from normal times. We do not face a normal bear market where central banks can reflate again. The collateral does not exist for this to happen. Because the gross debt is unpayable and total promises made are impossible to honor, a total reset is in store. Whether this is an overnight (weekend) event or a very compressed 2-4 week event is irrelevant. Asset “values” will be unrecognizable afterward with current eyes. The next 2-4 weeks are very important in my opinion because even in garden variety bear markets, it is the action of the retest or failure of support that matters most. Big changes are afoot!

The above spoke mainly to equity markets because that is what the average person sees and uses for judgement. Credit markets are far more important. I believe we have gotten to the stage where credit markets are actually too big for central banks who have for years acted as the “plunge protection team” of debt. There is just one hitch, when a fractional reserve debt system gets so large, it requires exponentially more new debt to continue which makes a system already too large for central banks …even larger!

Lastly I want to make mention that crashes throughout history have all occurred from oversold levels. I mention this because our next move in equities is downward from the current short term overbought levels and a retest of the lows is in store. You will most likely soon see the markets greatly oversold again and will be told they offer a fabulous buying opportunity. I think not. Rather, I believe the Dec. lows will fail and true fear will set in. “Fear” even by those pulling the strings because they will know they have lost control. I don’t think we will have long to find out if this is the case. The volatility genie is fully out of the bottle, she won’t go back in until the landscape is vastly different …!

This article was held one day for our subscribers and then made public.

Standing watch,
Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration

end

 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.7877/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7971   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 1.30 PTS OR 0.05%

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 2.75 POINTS OR 0.01%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 29.19  POINTS OR 0.14%

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.26/Euro FALLS TO 1.1363

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.66/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.38 and Brent: 62.02

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.25%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.77% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.33%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.52: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.16

3k Gold at $1285.05 silver at:15.41   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 32/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.18

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.66 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9973 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1332 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.25%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.76% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.08%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3067

 

Global Rally Returns As Markets Fade Trade Fears, Dollar Slides

One day after the biggest S&P drop in a month, stocks have regained their composure putting trade and global growth concerns on the backburner, and global stock indices are generally a sea of green this morning.

Trading was initially choppy overnight as hopes of more stimulus measures from China to shore up economic growth clashed with worries over progress between Washington and Beijing to resolve a trade spat between the world’s top two economies. The MSCI world equity index was down 0.1 percent, with Asian equity markets choppy as the region attempted to shrug off the headwinds from the US, where stocks slumped on Tuesday as the risk averse tone and lingering global growth concerns caught up with the major US indices on return from their extended weekend.

The FT reported that the US turned down China’s offer for preparatory trade talks, which was later denied by NEC Director Larry Kudlow helping U.S. equities pare some losses though the fresh concerns about U.S.-China relations kept share prices in check. Early trade jitters pushed the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan lower by 0.2%, stalling after climbing to a seven-week high on Monday.

The main culprit for the risk-off tone this morning is the change in sentiment around U.S.-China trade talks …. That seeped into Asia overnight and Europe this morning,” said Edward Park, deputy chief investment officer at Brooks MacDonald. (Harvey: a big joke)

Australia’s ASX 200 (-0.3%) was subdued with underperformance in the energy sector after crude prices slipped by over 2% and Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) was dampened by disappointing trade data including the sharpest drop in exports since October 2016.

However, sentiment in Tokyo was propped up by a weaker currency after the BOJ cut its inflationary outlook slashing 2019 core CPI from 1.4% to 0.9%, even as it kept its monetary policy, sending the USDJPY to new highs and boosting local stocks while Japan Display shares surged on reports it is in investment discussions with TPK and Silk Road Fund. 10yr JGBs traded sideways throughout most the session amid the indecisive risk tone in stocks and then saw choppy trade in reflection of sentiment in the region and following an unsurprising BoJ decision to keep policy setting unchanged.

Elsewhere, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite confirmed trader indecisiveness after mixed actions by the PBoC as it conducted a Targeted Medium-term Lending Facility for the first time ever which was at a lower rate than MLF rates and is aimed at spurring lending to small firms, but conversely refrained from reverse repo operations which resulted to a daily drain of CNY 350bln.

A fresh batch of disappointing corporate updates from European companies further knocked confidence about fourth-quarter earnings, pushing European stocks lower for a third session at the start of trading, with the Stoxx 600 down as much as 0.5%, with bourses all across Europe losing ground as a profit warning by Ingenico sent the French payment group down over 12 percent and hit the whole European tech sector.

However, sentiment reversed sharply just after the open, with most European equities trading mostly higher [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%], after recovering from opening losses, taking the lead from Wall Street.

Echoing the rebound in Europe, U.S. futures pointed to a positive start for Wall Street after the S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Dow all posted their biggest one-day percentage drops since Jan. 3 on Tuesday.

Still, despite a modest return of bullish sentiment, the ride ahead will be bumpy: Justin Onuekwusi, a fund manager at Legal & General said central banks’ stimulus unwinding, China’s slowdown, the broader impact of trade wars and populist rhetoric from politicians were all keeping markets on edge. “All these issues have an impact on markets. Every time you have an increase in rhetoric, markets react. It feels like there is a greater political risk premium. The biggest near-term risk is that as you see markets fall, confidence drops and you get people not spending which becomes self-perpetuating. The near-term probability of that has increased.”

In FX, the U.S. dollar slumped to session lows having trading near a three-week high earlier after the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged as expected, boosting risk appetite and sending the yen lower.  The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for the first time in seven days in a rather muted session in currencies, with short-term positioning dictating price action. The yen weakened as the BOJ lowered its inflation outlook, while the kiwi advanced as consumer-price data beat estimates. Treasuries slipped as oil prices rose, while euro-area bonds were mixed as stocks in Europe and U.S. equity futures rebounded. Sterling rose as the U.K. parliament moved closer to ruling out a no-deal Brexit. The euro was a shade lower at $1.1358 but remained in close reach of a three-week low of $1.1336 set on Tuesday, weighed by recent weakness in the euro zone economy and worries about fallout from Brexit.

In the key central bank event overnight, the BoJ kept monetary policy settings unchanged as expected with NIRP held at -0.1% and 10yr JGB yield target at around 0%. Furthermore, the BoJ extended its lending scheme for 1 year and stated that economic momentum for reaching price goal is sustained but lacking strength, while it added that risks to price and economic outlooks are skewed to the downside. BoJ reduced Real GDP forecasts for FY18 but raised Real GDP forecasts for FY19 and FY20, while it reduced Core CPI forecasts on all years through to FY20. BoJ Governor Kuroda said the downward revision to price outlook is due to the temporary decline in oil prices, Kuroda expects inflation to pick up towards the 2% target. Adding that downside risks from overseas are heightening due to US-China trade friction and European problems.

In the latest Brexit developments, PM May is reportedly set to force ministers to keep a no deal Brexit on the table despite threats of ministerial resignations. This has been seen as a defence mechanism against the Labour Party’s potential support for the Cooper-Boles Brexit delay plan.  UK Tory party Brexiteers concerned about prospects of a delay, have suggested they could be won over if UK PM May can get a serious concession from the EU on backstop. Following this, ITV’s Paul Brand tweets “Jacob Rees-Mogg will say in a speech today that the backstop remains “the one absolute obstacle” to backing PM’s deal BUT he’s “encouraged by signs of movement”. Sun’s Steve Hawkes reports “Labour has told second referendum campaigners it is backing the Cooper-Boles Amendment”. Has subsequently been confirmed by a Labour party source, stating it is ‘highly likely’ they will back the amendment.

In commodities, Brent (+0.8%) and WTI (+0.8%) prices have nursed initial losses and moved into positive territory due a turnaround in risk sentiment. Following on from Saudi Energy Minister Al Falih’s withdrawal from the WEF at Davos, Russian Energy Minister Novak has also cancelled his trip; Novak was due to speak on Friday on the Great Energy Race alongside IEA’s Birol. Separately, IEA’s Birol has stated that oil demand will grow by at least 1mln BPD. In terms of forecasting DNB have cut their 2019 Brent forecast to USD 70/bbl vs. Prev. USD 75/bbl. Of note API’s have been rescheduled to today due to Monday’s US market holiday.

Gold has marginally benefitted from the risk sentiment, with the yellow metal trading at the top of it’s narrow USD 4/oz range; currently just under USD 1285/oz. Elsewhere, China’s December scrap metals imports increased to 510k tonnes, their highest figure since May, ahead of China tightening waste imports in 2019.

Expected data include mortgage applications. Abbott, Comcast, P&G, and Ford are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,636.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.05% to 354.91
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 152.23
  • MXAPJ down 0.1% to 494.65
  • Nikkei down 0.1% to 20,593.72
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,547.03
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.01% to 27,008.20
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.05% to 2,581.00
  • Sensex down 0.6% to 36,217.48
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 5,843.72
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,127.78
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 0.239%
  • Euro down 0.01% to $1.1359
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 2.383%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to 1.321%
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $61.94/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,285.00
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.36

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The European Union is prepared to hit 20 billion euros ($22.7 billion) of U.S. goods with tariffs should President Donald Trump follow through on a threat to impose duties on EU cars and auto parts, said a senior trade official for the bloc
  • The European Commission is pushing the Irish government to lay out its plans for the border in the event of a no-deal Brexit, a person familiar with the matter said
  • The U.K. parliament is inching toward a plan to delay Brexit to prevent Britain dropping out of the European Union without a deal, with the opposition Labour Party now increasingly likely to support the proposal
  • Debt levels in the U.K. aren’t necessarily a cause for concern, according to Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent
  • Investors are seeking record amounts of bonds from Southern Europe, emerging from the sidelines after last year’s political turmoil in Italy. Sovereign bond offerings from Italy, Spain and Portugal this month have all drawn unprecedented bidding for a total of 106 billion euros ($120 billion), up 14 percent from a year ago. That has helped drive a slide in peripheral euro-area yields in the past two weeks
  • The chairman of Thailand’s Election Commission says a general election is to be held on March 24

Asian equity markets were choppy as the region attempted to shrug off the headwinds from Wall St, where stocks declined as the risk averse tone and lingering global growth concerns caught up with the major US indices on return from their extended weekend. Furthermore, it was also reported that the US turned down China’s offer for preparatory trade talks, which was later denied by NEC Director Kudlow. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (-0.3%) was subdued with underperformance in the energy sector after crude prices slipped by over 2% and Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) was dampened by disappointing trade data including the sharpest drop in exports since October 2016. However, sentiment in Tokyo was later propped up by a weaker currency, while Japan Display shares surged on reports it is in investment discussions with TPK and Silk Road Fund. Hang Seng (U/C) and Shanghai Comp. (U/C) conformed to the indecisiveness after mixed actions by the PBoC as it conducted a Targeted Medium-term Lending Facility for the first time ever which was at a lower rate than MLF rates and is aimed at spurring lending to small firms, but conversely refrained from reverse repo operations which resulted to a daily drain of CNY 350bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded sideways throughout most the session amid the indecisive risk tone in stocks and with participants side-lined prior to the BoJ policy announcement, but then saw  choppy trade in reflection of sentiment in the region and following an unsurprising BoJ decision to keep policy setting unchanged.

Top Asian News

  • China Meat Giant Surges as Founder Returns After Vanishing
  • China Companies Suspected of Buying Own Bonds to Spur Demand
  • Thailand to Hold First General Election Since Coup in 2014
  • BOJ Leaves Stimulus Unchanged as It Cuts Inflation Outlook Again
  • The January Rally Is Waning in Asia Stocks, Just Like Last Year

Major European equities are mostly higher [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%], after recovering from opening losses, taking the lead from Wall Street. US stocks were affected by growth concerns, alongside subsequently denied reports that the US turned down an offer by two Chinese vice-ministers to attend preparatory trade talks in the US. Sectors have strengthened somewhat from their negative opening, and are now mixed with underperformance in energy names and outperformance in utilities. Tech names have been underperforming following ASML (-1.8%) cutting Q1 sales guidance, with the likes of STMicroelectronics (-1.4%) down in sympathy. Other notable movers include Carrefour (+6.7%) are at the top of the Stoxx 600 following earnings where they confirmed all targets for their 2022 transformation plan. Separately, RPC Group (+4.6%) are firmly in the green after recommending a final cash offering of GBP 7.82/shr; with Co’s directors seeing the acquisition terms as fair and reasonable. In contrast, at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 are Ingenico (-13.2%) after reporting a FY18 EBITDA miss.

Top European News

  • Still Here? Brexit Delay Might Worsen EU’s Election Headache; Fox Warns No-Deal Exit Is ‘Real Possibility’: Brexit Update
  • Record Bidding for Southern Europe’s Debt Shows Pent-Up Demand
  • Salvini Takes a Swing at Merkel and Forecasts Losses for Macron
  • Apollo Seals $4 Billion Deal for Ketchup-to-Lotions Packager RPC
  • Patisserie Valerie Collapses as Luke Johnson’s Rescue Fails

In FX, a relatively muted session for the Dollar thus far with the index hovering around the middle of a tight 96.268-378 range after NEC Director Kudlow dismissed reports that US turned down an offer from China for trade talks. The US government shutdown is now rolling onto its 33rd day, although there were reports overnight that US Senate are to vote on two separate bills on Thursday which could potentially bring an end to the shutdown. Meanwhile, BLS stated the January 2019 Employment Situation will be published as scheduled on February 1, 2019, at 1330GMT. ING noted that the 800k workers affected by the shutdown represent only 0.5% of the total US NFP, noting that the impact to the US economy will be modest but noticeable.

  • JPY – On the backfoot in early EU trade following the BoJ rate decision in which the Central Bank kept the NIRP at -0.1% and the 10yr JGB yield target around 0% as expected while also reducing inflation forecasts, which was widely touted beforehand. Furthermore, Japan logged the first trade annual deficit in three years, as the cost of energy imports surged. As such USD/JPY breached its 100 and 50 HMAs (at 109.45 and 109.53 respectively) to a high of 109.73 (vs low of 109.33) with little to report on the options expiry front.
  • GBP, EUR – The Pound continues on its upwards trajectory amid ongoing hopes of an Article 50 extension despite the UK Governments constant dismissal of the option, though the latest suggests that support for the Cooper amendment (to give Parliament power to extend Article 50) is stacking up, with reports of the Labour party also supporting the amendment. Lloyd’s notes that the recent Sterling strength was more than they anticipated, though a clean break through 1.3000 is still needed for “re-energised momentum” to the upside. GBP/USD  remains closer to the top of a 1.2945-1.3000 range ahead of its 200 DMA at 1.3081. Meanwhile the EUR remains flat within

In commodities, Brent (+0.8%) and WTI (+0.8%) prices have nursed initial losses and moved into positive territory due a turnaround in risk sentiment. Following on from Saudi Energy Minister Al Falih’s withdrawal from the WEF at Davos, Russian Energy Minister Novak has also cancelled his trip; Novak was due to speak on Friday on the Great Energy Race alongside IEA’s Birol. Separately, IEA’s Birol has stated that oil demand will grow by at least 1mln BPD. In terms of forecasting DNB have cut their 2019 Brent forecast to USD 70/bbl vs. Prev. USD 75/bbl. Of note API’s have been rescheduled to today due to Monday’s US market holiday. Gold (Unch) has marginally benefitted from the risk sentiment, with the yellow metal trading at the top of it’s narrow USD 4/oz range; currently just under USD 1285/oz. Elsewhere, China’s December scrap metals imports increased to 510k tonnes, their highest figure since May, ahead of China tightening waste imports in 2019.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 13.5%
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -2, prior -8

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Good morning from the highest city in Europe. Davos is very cold and please expect lots of Canada Goose jackets if you catch up with events on the telly over the rest of this week. I looked at buying one before I came out so as to fit in with the Davos set. When I saw how much they cost I realised I would rather not fit in. Actually, I got there late last night and the only non-restaurant places I found to eat were a kebab shop and a Co-op supermarket. I was wondering whether Bono has ever had a similar dilemma between the two choices. As I’m staying in a self-catering apartment and after much deliberation I opted for the latter and cooked myself a pizza. In nearly a quarter of a century it’s probably the first business trip that I’ve cooked for myself. I quite enjoyed it. Anyway, if you’re in town let me know, especially if you want to attend one of my sessions.

The cold air has obviously also infiltrated markets this week. US bourses reopening yesterday failed to stem the reversal of some of the new year optimism. Indeed, the latest headlines on the earnings and trade fronts weighed on sentiment. Equity markets failed to recover from heavy falls at the open with the S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ closing down -1.42%, -1.22% and -1.91% respectively. The NYFANG index dropped -3.38% as Amazon and Netflix posted their worst days of the year.

Markets took another leg lower in the US afternoon session, after headlines broke that US negotiators declined a proposed meeting between with mid-level Chinese officials, apparently citing lack of progress on China’s industrial policies, especially the alleged forced technology transfers. The meeting would have been with Vice-Minister of Commerce Wang and Vice-Minister of Finance Liao, to lay groundwork for next week’s planned meeting between senior officials namely Vice-Premier Liu, US Trade Representative Lighthizer, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Those talks are still scheduled to take place, but expectations for a breakthrough have now fallen. Late in the day, Trump Administration officials formally denied the reports however head of the National Economic Council Kudlow did add that “enforcement is absolutely crucial to the success of these talks. In any case the damage to markets had been done.

Earnings also played a part in the sogginess, as poor results from Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson and Stanley Black & Decker weighed on the industrials and consumer discretionary sectors (down -2.07% and -1.79% respectively). All three companies declined following their latest quarterly reports with the common denominator being management comments about a challenging outlook ahead, highlighted by Black & Decker CEO Loree saying “economic growth is slowing”. This more than offset gains to eBay (+6.13%) which rallied after one of its bigger shareholders, Elliot Management, proposed a five-step plan which in their view could result in eBay’s share price almost doubling. The energy sector also suffered (-2.20%), as WTI oil tumbled -1.91% however did at least pare a sharper slide earlier in the session. That move came despite there not really being an obvious catalyst aside from the various growth concerns which have been highlighted in recent days – none of which are particularly new news.

Meanwhile, here in Europe UBS also missed at both the earnings and sales lines following its quarterly report which resulted in shares falling -3.17% in Switzerland – albeit off the early lows. That weighed on the wider European Banks index which closed down -1.03% and for the fifth time in the last seven sessions while the STOXX 600 ended -0.36%. HY credit spreads widened +4bps and +12bps in Europe and the US respectively. In contrast bonds were slightly stronger, albeit only modestly so, with Bunds ending -2.0bps lower and Treasuries -4.5bps. The 2s10s curve also flattened -1.6 bps but the reality is that it still remains rooted in the 10-20bp range that it’s been in since the end of November.

Overnight the focus has turned to the BoJ where, as expected, there have been no changes to policy. Also as expected are the lower inflation forecasts in the BoJ’s outlook, the fourth consecutive quarter they have done so. For the fiscal year starting April, core CPI is expected to be 0.9% compared to 1.4% previously. With the backdrop of lower inflation and with the consumption tax looming, the hurdle to the BoJ contemplating adjusting policy continues to look high. JGBs are slightly weaker this morning post the decision with the 10y up less than a basis point to -0.004% with Kuroda due to speak shortly. The Yen has weakened -0.25% while the Nikkei (+0.04%) is broadly flat. That’s the case also for the Hang Seng (+0.06%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.07%) with the Kospi (+0.24%) outperforming. The good news is that the slide for US equity futures also appears to have come to an end with S&P 500 contracts up +0.15%. That may reflect the news that lawmakers in the Senate have agreed to hold separate votes today on rival proposals in order to reopen the government.

Moving on. There was some interest in the ECB’s bank lending survey yesterday which was softer compared to recent surveys. The net percentage of banks reporting tightening standards to enterprises was closer to even with -1 in Q4 compared to -6 in Q3. Demand for loans also continued its slowing trend from recent quarters with the net balance to enterprises falling to +9 versus +12 in Q3. It was a similar story for housing loans although demand for the latter did pick up. At a country level the softness was mostly reserved for Italy and Spain. Notably the outlook for Q1 also implies further moderation which fits in with lower growth expectations for the Euro Area this year. At a minimum the data should add to the anticipation levels for tomorrow’s PMIs and ECB policy meeting. Our economists’ preview for the meeting is available here. They don’t think any big policy changes are imminent, but think the council could shift its characterisation of the balance of risks to the downside. Apart from that, they’ll focus on any hints regarding new TLTROs and/or any discussion of a potential one-off deposit rate hike.

Here in the UK it was nice to get some rare positive news in the form of the latest labour report. Indeed there were positive surprises for the November unemployment rate (down one-tenth to 4.0% vs. 4.1% expected), average weekly earnings (up one-tenth to +3.4% 3m/yoy vs. +3.3% expected) and employment change (141k 3m/3m vs. 87k expected) prints. That of course compares to what have been weaker PMIs in the UK recently and the ongoing Brexit saga so this somewhat complicates the picture for the BoE with the supply side narrative of a tighter UK labour market very much intact. A hike by August is less than 50% priced however it will challenge the BoE not to sound overly dovish given the strength in the hard data.

The only other data worth flagging yesterday in Europe was the January ZEW survey in Germany where there was a big slump in the current situations component to 27.6 (vs. 43.0 expected) compared to 45.3 in December. However the expectations component did climb 2.5pts to -15.0 and bettered expectations for a fall to -18.5.

In the US, monthly existing home sales fell short of expectations, rising by 4.99 million in December compared to expectations for 5.25 million, the slowest pace and biggest downside miss since November 2015. Mortgage applications have picked up over the last couple weeks as long end interest rates have fallen, so there could be scope for a rebound in the near future. We’ll get the latest MBA mortgage application data later today.

In terms of the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’ll get January confidence indicators out of France followed later on by the January CBI survey in the UK. In the US this afternoon it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the January Richmond Fed manufacturing survey (-2 expected vs. -8 previously) in light of some weak regional Fed surveys so far this month, while the November FHFA house price index is also due out. This afternoon we’ll also get the January consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area. Away from that we’re due to hear from the BoE’s Broadbent while the second day of the Davos forum gets underway. Earnings wise we’re due to get quarterly reports from United Technology, Proctor & Gamble and Ford.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.30 PTS OR 0.05% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 2.75 POINTS OR 0.01% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 29.19  PTS OR 0.14%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.26%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7871 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 53.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.02 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED /RED 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7871 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7971: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

 

i)North Korea//USA/Sweden

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

USA/Yen rises (yen falls) hits 110 after they report an export slump.

(courtesy zerohedge)

USDJPY Hits 110 After Dovish BOJ, Export Slump

The yen has been weakening all day, and moments ago the USDJPY hit 110.00, the highest level since the start of the year – rising alongside 10Y TSY yields and S&P futures – after Japan’s exports fall and Bank of Japan cuts inflation outlook again.

On Wednesday morning, in its latest policy decision, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected, but cut its inflation forecast, and now expects CPI forecast for the fiscal year starting in April to be only 0.9% down from 1.4%, citing lower oil prices, but really just the latest admission that Abenomics is failing to gain traction. The BOJ also trimmed its estimate for fiscal 2020 to 1.4% from 1.5%.

The BOJ also revised down sharply its outlook for FY2018 real GDP growth to 0.9%, from 1.4% as of October 2018. This revision was likely made to reflect the large negative growth (-2.5% qoq annualized) recorded in the second estimate for 3Q2018 real GDP due to the impact of natural disasters.

While the BOJ’s statement on the risk balance was largely unchanged, the BOJ looks to have adopted a more cautious tone on overseas economic trends with the addition of the comment “[s]uch downside risks concerning overseas economies are likely to be heightening recently, and it also is necessary to pay close attention to their impact on firms’ and households’ sentiment in Japan.”

Because it’s never “your” fault when you are a central banker, it is always “someone else’s fault.”

“The yen came under pressure as the perception that the current low interest-rate condition in Japan will continue longer after the BOJ cut its inflation forecast,” said Daisaku Ueno, chief FX strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

“BOJ’s decision to lower its inflation forecast has added to the perception that it will continue its current ultra-loose monetary policy for longer, without suggesting it will ease further”, said Tadashi Matsukawa, head of fixed-income investment at Pinebridge Investments Japan.

There was more bad news for Kuroda and Abe overnight, when Japan’s exports tumbled 3.8% Y/Y in December, twice as bad as the expected -1.9%, and the lowest since October 2016, in yet another confirmation that i) global trade is slowing rapidly and ii) Japan will need to find a way to lower the Yen even more if it hopes to boost the country’s exports.

Still, as Bloomberg notes, the dollar continues to face stiff resistance near 110 yen as two key psychological risk factors – U.S.-China trade tensions and U.S. government funding legislation – remain unresolved. That said, as Japanese interest rates are expected to stay low, local investors may decided to send their money abroad, which could provide support to USD/JPY.

3 C CHINA

i)CHINA

A good commentary from Jeffrey Snider today as he describes the decline of the euro dollar story is reaching its final chapters.  Euro dollars is simply uSA dollars held outside of the uSA.  Because of the lack of growth in the emerging markets, Asian markets and European markets, we are witnessing a decline in those dollars.  The high deficits of Trump is also sucking into the USA vast sums of dollars and that is killing the rest of the globe

(courtesy Jeffrey Snider)

 

China’s Eurodollar Story Reaches Its Final Chapters

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

Imagine yourself as a rural Chinese farmer. Even the term “farmer” makes it sound better than it really is. This is a life out of the 19th century, subsistence at best the daily struggle just to survive. Flourishing is a dream.

Only, you can see just on the other side of the hill the bright reflective lights of one of China’s many glittering modern cities. Not only are you reminded of the stark difference between what must be the life of its denizens and yours, not too long ago your neighbor or distant relative was privileged enough to move out of the peasantry and into the light and city life of relative comfort and fortune.

You try not to be bitter because this transformation will some day be your transformation, biding your time until your number is called. You put up with a lot along the way, from clear restrictions to your personal freedom and human rights to ungodly pollution, but through it all you keep reminding yourself that even if you don’t live long enough, for your one permitted child their future is assured.

And then one day the government says, “sorry, we are all full up over here in paradise.”

China isn’t quite there yet, but that day is coming maybe even rapidly approaching. What’s more, Chinese officials know it. While Economists in the West were suckered into globally synchronized growth, the Communists knew it was nothing more than a marketing slogan. Long before trade wars, China’s economy in 2017 had reached its reflationary plateau and frighteningly it was a shallow one.

…of the 300 to 500 million peasants slated to become middle class workers, what happens if only 200 million end up having been given the order to move into the fancy new cities? (In truth, it doesn’t work like that; it works the same as anywhere else where the relatively affluent already in cities move into the new stuff and the newly arrived rural farmers take over the old left behind). This is the real danger and the real task for the Chinese government. A no-growth world means there isn’t anything for those still on the outside to do, and therefore no need for them in the cities.

If that was the best they could do when everything was supposedly going right, what was the downside when things didn’t go right? Furthermore, given recent history of the global reserve currency system, eurodollar not dollar, what were the chances “going right” was going to last more than maybe a few quarters longer?

On top of all that, the Chinese Communists remain keenly aware what happened in Russia when the Soviet Communists’ economy ran out on them. They aren’t around to tell the story.

More and more China’s officials are sounding the alarm. It is the political backlash against a world without growth. You can listen to Jay Powell and Mario Draghi if you like, and maybe Xi Jinping does as a matter of pure hope. But as the supreme official for what is always a fragile proposition (authoritarian states tend to be that way) Emperor Xi doesn’t have the luxury. He knows what could happen when he instructs local officials to give the “we are full” signal.

President Xi Jinping stressed the need to maintain political stability in an unusual meeting of China’s top leaders – a fresh sign the ruling party is growing concerned about the social implications of the slowing economy.

No kidding. China’s economic predicament is intractable. Even those who all throughout 2018 were speaking of the trade war can sense that this is so much bigger than tariffs on soybeans. Mainstream news stories once eager to blame American officials for a minor slowdown have come to realize this is internal Chinese demand on the brink.

Only, nobody can figure out why.

Eurodollar, not dollar. I wrote in October 2017 that the Chinese were warning the world about the state of the global economy because they are forced to be realistic about it by their dollar short. No one wanted to listen because Economists.

There is every reason to suspect that Chinese officials are increasingly accepting of a no-growth paradigm, and therefore it would be prudent (from the Communist perspective) to get ahead of any potential fault-lines that may develop in response to China without any “miracle(s).” With an end to the labor market transformation in sight, as indicated most spectacularly by FAI, it just might get a little dicey out in rural China.

That was five quarters ago, and I’ll repeat it again – this was long before trade wars.

The latest economic statistics from China display the unmistakable direction. The Chinese economy is not crashing, but there is no doubt it is slowing. In the bigger picture, there really is no difference anymore.

Industrial Production was a little better at 5.7% year-over-year in December than the atrocious 5.4% growth in November, that just means slightly less atrocious.

Retail Sales were up 8.2% last month, a tick above the 8.1% recorded the month before. November’s rate was the worst in a long time, again being a little better than the worst is still in the same category.

Accumulated Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) managed growth of 5.9% for all of 2018 over 2017. Private FAI was slightly higher last year than the year before, 8.7% compared to 6.0%, but that was a low level to come back to and nowhere near the 25% to 30% growth that used to be China’s urbanizing baseline. And much of that private FAI was directed into China’s longstanding property bubble.

GDP growth in Q4 (6.4%) was the worst in decades.

Xi’s predicament is very real, not that anyone should have any sympathy for a despot. By itself, slowing wouldn’t be too much to be concerned about; coming down from such a low start, however, changes the game entirely. There can be no growth and the probability the paradigm will change for the better is now exceedingly low. If you are a Communist, it isn’t just prudence to prepare for the scenario, it is full-on survival at this point.

When China signed on to the eurodollar system, they did so thinking it was a one-way ticket to paradise. Even after 2008, there were complaints about it (Zhou in March 2009) but no serious challenge once it looked like Emerging Markets were going to emerge maybe even the winner – it was widely believed there was a “new normal” in the West leaving growth the exclusive property of the East (and South).

It was a higher order mistake along the lines of these “decoupling” outbreaks. In the immediate aftermath of the Great “Recession” everyone acted as if the developing world was going to decouple from the lack of recovery in the developed world.

There is no decoupling, however, only variances in the time dimension. It was only a matter of time before the eurodollar’s “L” struck China, Asia, and all the rest of the global economy, too. Even when it did half a decade ago people still couldn’t grasp the enormity of what was failing.

While Janet Yellen was busy with exit strategies and transitory factors, this is exactly what had happened. The eurodollar decay was not transitory, it just doesn’t happen all at once. That’s really all 2017 was, a pause in the global monetary deconstruction.

It’s back again and in a big way. The Chinese Communists have been battening down the hatches for five quarters already. The negative signals are as much political and social in nature as economic or financial.In fact, the econ stats more and more merely confirm the alarming political developments.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK

The Fed is now probing Deutsche bank’s role in the money laundering scandal with respect to Estonia’s Danske bank

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fed Probing Deutsche Bank’s Role In Largest-Ever Money Laundering Scandal

As rumors about a possible Deutsche Bank merger with rival troubled German lender Commerzbank continue to swirl despite the seemingly never-ending investigations into a suite of alleged misdeeds by the bank, Bloomberg has given would be merger arbs weighing whether to buy the German lender’s battered shares one more reason to hold off.

DB

In a follow-up to a report late last year that the Department of Justice had expanded its probe into what could be the largest money laundering scandal in history – that is, the infamous Danske Bank money laundering scandal, which involved some $230 billion of suspicious money flowing into Western Europe from shadowy sources in the former Soviet Union – by looking into the role played by the various correspondent banks that cleared many of these transactions (a group that included DB, BofA and JPM), Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve is examining how DB moved billions of dollars on behalf of Danske’s Estonian branch, the epicenter of the fraud.

DB

Though this line of inquiry is said to be in its early stages, the implications are clear: US regulators are growing increasingly dissatisfied with correspondent banks and their deference on all KYC-related issues to the client banks whose transactions they are clearing.

Deutsche Bank said that month it has controls in place when acting as a correspondent for other banks, but its ability to know about their clients is limited. As a correspondent, “your only relationship is with the bank and the bank itself has the responsibility to check its own client to monitor the transaction and to do all these kinds of checks”, a company representative said at the time.

The Fed is exploring whether Deutsche “adequately monitored funds” moving through Danske’s Estonian branch.

The Fed’s probe is in an early stage as it scrutinizes whether Deutsche Bank’s U.S. operations adequately monitored funds from an Estonian branch of Danske Bank A/S, according to two people briefed on the situation, who asked not to be named because the inquiry isn’t public. Danske, which used correspondent banks such as Deutsche Bank to move money abroad, has admitted that much of about $230 billion that flowed through the tiny Estonian outpost may have been dirty.

For what it’s worth, DB denied that the Fed or other US regulators or law enforcement agencies were investigating the bank. Instead, it said they were merely asking questions.

“There are no probes,” Deutsche Bank said in an emailed statement, but the bank “received several requests for information from regulators and law enforcement agencies around the world. It is not surprising at all that the investigating authorities and banks themselves have an interest in the Danske case and the lessons to be learned from it. Deutsche Bank continues to provide information to and cooperate with the investigating agencies.”

The Fed is supposed to ensure that banks in its jurisdiction properly scrutinize their clients. One factor that may have attracted scrutiny from the Fed was testimony from a Danske whistleblower who told lawmakers in Denmark that DB moved $150 billion – the bulk of the suspected illicit cash – on behalf of Danske.

The U.S. requires banks operating under its jurisdiction to scrutinize clients and their dealings to detect potential money laundering and alert authorities to suspicious transactions. The Fed is among regulators that ensure banks have adequate systems in place to fulfill those duties.

A Danske Bank whistle-blower who outlined the illicit flow of cash through that firm has said much of it passed through Deutsche Bank in the U.S., and one of the people said the Fed is focusing on the German lender’s trust bank. Deutsche Bank has been cooperating with the Fed, the people said.

A Fed spokesman said it doesn’t publicly discuss confidential probes.

Last week, DB CEO Christian Sewing said he had launched an internal probe into the bank’s correspondent banking practices even though he hasn’t seen anything to suggest wrongdoing. Much of the illicit activity under investigation took place between 2007 and 2015.

The bank had previously reviewed its actions in the case, Sewing said at an event in Berlin. He urged people not to “prejudge” the bank or its employees, presuming their innocence unless proven guilty.

Whether the Fed probe results in financial penalties remains to be seen. But banks and investors should take note: Correspondent banks, who have previously been allowed to feign ignorance when their involvement in money laundering violations has come to light, might soon be facing a lot more scrutiny.

end
UK
The pound rises as the Labour party backs a measure to delay the eventual Brexit if no deal comes about by late February
(courtesy zerohedge)

Pound Climbs As Labour Backs Measure To Delay Brexit

Update (6 am ET): The pound has continued its ascent on headlines affirming that Labour intends to back the Cooper amendment, which would push the government to try and delay Brexit Day if Prime Minister May fails to pass a deal by late February.

GBPUSD

Meanwhile, Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said during an interview with the Luxembourg Times that the EU would only back extending the Brexit dealine if there is a “stable majority” for a deal. He also said that if the UK believes the backstop is an insurmountable obstacle, they could likely secure another deal if they tack to a softer Brexit (which would presumably include remaining in the customs union and/or the single market).

* * *

The British pound vaulted back above $1.30 Wednesday morning as it rose for a third day, returning to its highs from November, on reports that the Labour Party was on the cusp of backing a proposal put forth by one of its members that would force the government to seek a delay of Brexit until the end of the year.

With the next big parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal (this time, the “Plan B” iteration) coming next week, on Tuesday night, those who want to amend the government motion calling for the vote to force the government to rule out a no-deal Brexit, received some good news. Amid the crush of plans hoping to delay or derail Brexit, Labour MP Yvette Cooper put forth an amendment that would require May to seek a delay of Brexit if a deal isn’t passed by Feb. 26.

Yvette

Yvette Cooper

During an interview on the BBC’s Newsnight last night, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell all but announced that Labour would support the Cooper amendment, calling it a “sensible proposal” and adding that it was “increasingly likely” that Labour would vote for it. Given the number of rebel Tories who have said they would support the Cooper amendment, it has a high likelihood of passing if it’s called for a vote.

Embedded video

BBC Newsnight

@BBCNewsnight

“Yvette Cooper has put an amendment down, which I think is sensible,” says Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell adding “it’s increasingly likely” Labour would back her amendment@johnmcdonnellMP |

Analysts said the amendment is leading to intensifying optimism that no deal will be avoided.

The rally in GBP “reflects building optimism that a ‘no-deal’ Brexit will be avoided,” said Lee Hardman, an analyst at MUFG. “There have been some encouraging signs that the risk of delaying Brexit could prompt rebel Conservative MPs and the DUP to consider backing an amended version of PM May’s deal.”

Tories have tried to portray the amendment as unconstitutional, though the Guardian reported that there is precedent for legislation being proposed by backbenchers being called for a vote. Liam Fox, a Brexiteer and May’s international trade secretary, claimed that the amendment was constitutionally improper. He said that amendments that call for “taking control” of the “initiation of legislation” pose “a real danger.”

Sterling climbed 0.4% to $1.3004, its highest level since mid-November, after advancing 0.6% in previous two days.

Brexit

As the prime minister tries to rally support for her revise deal, May will face off with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on Wednesday during another session of PMQs.

end

Tom Luongo describes May’s Plan B:  calling the remainers bluff

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 

Luongo: May’s Brexit ‘Plan B’ Is To Call Remainers’ Bluff

Authored by Tom Luongo via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Earlier this week I did something I never thought I’d ever do. I watched over two hours of British Parliament. This was the session wherein Prime Minister Theresa May outlined her so-called Plan B deal for Brexit.

Needless to say, it wasn’t warmly received.

But a funny thing has happened on the way to Brexit. And I am as shocked to type this as anyone who follows me will be shocked to read it.

Theresa May has risen to become Brexit’s main champion.

As I said in my last article here:

Theresa “The Gypsum Lady” May went through an extraordinary twenty-four hours. First, seeing her truly horrific Brexit deal go down in historic defeat and then, somehow, surviving a ‘No-Confidence’ vote which left her in a stronger position than before it.

It looks like May rightly calculated that the twenty or so Tory Remainers would put party before the European Union as their personal political positions would be terminally weakened if they voted her out of office.

Blue Monday’s Parliamentary session confirmed for me that she has emerged from this fight stronger than she’s been since before the 2017 snap election debacle. May rightly pointed out, patiently and with a twinkle of smugness, that all calls for extending Article 50 or holding a second referendum were irrelevant.

Article 50 happens on March 29th and the whining of Remainer MP’s can’t stop it.

So, if they want a deal with the EU, then they have to give her and the government clear parameters to go back to Brussels to negotiate from. Otherwise, March 29th comes and Brexit on World Trade Organization rules commences.

But May also knows that her offer for talks with all sides of the House is a bit of a lie. She knows that the fractious nature of the Remain position precludes them coming up with a deal offer that will get majority support of the House of Commons.

And if you needed proof of this all you had to do was watch the endless parade of MPs.

For two hours I watched Remainer after Remainer grandstand and virtue signal about the need for the “People’s Vote” and whine for more time. The SNP threatened to leave the U.K. multiple times if they didn’t get their way.

It was like watching children have a tantrum over not getting their cookie.

None of them proposed one constructive solution to break the deadlock in the House. They simply stuck to their talking points and fulminated.

And May was firm. She may have even graduated from ‘The Gypsum Lady’ to ‘Calcite’ or ‘Feldspar.’

If she delivers a real Brexit that leaves the EU spluttering into their lattes and Remainers simpering about how unfair it all is, I’ll take back most of the mean things I’ve said about her.

The Remain crowd has had two years to influence negotiations knowing a “No-Deal” Brexit was the default position. They thought they could play politics, use Brexit chaos as a way for Labour to seize power and destroy the Tories.

And the eventual outcome would be a Brexit betrayal after two years of creating a false reality of the apocalypse of a “No-Deal” Brexit.

That plan has crashed and burned. The people want the vote respected, regardless of how they voted in 2016, Leave or Remain. The polls are clear that the country hasn’t shifted its stance.

The Tory Remainers in May’s cabinet thought they could scare everyone into weakening May with a horrible deal and get what they wanted – Brexit in Name Only. But that has failed as well.

You know things are desperate when the British establishment floated a rumor of a parliamentary coup against May.The calls for the People’s Vote and all of that are coming from people like Tony Blair speaking on behalf of George Soros.

But it didn’t happen. The reports of a draft amendment which would wrest control of the Brexit process from the Prime Minister made the rounds in the media, but nothing came of it during the session.

No one wanted to be the first to even broach the subject of removing the Prime Minister’s ability to conduct government business. May called Tony Blair’s bluff that MPs were not willing to throw out hundreds of years of Parliamentary rules to secure a political outcome there is little to no support for popularly.

The big loser in that debate was Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn who has his hands tied by Labour Remainers. They insist on him backing a way to stop Brexit despite a majority of Labour MPs now representing districts which voted Leave in 2016.

So Corbyn now must half-heartedly back a Second Referendum which is political suicide as well as continuing to screech about taking ‘No-Deal’ off the table even though he, himself, voted Leave and wants to see a stronger Brexit than most of his MPs.

The press will continue to ratchet up the fear of a ‘No-Deal’ while behind the scenes both governments prepare for the most likely outcome at this point, exactly that.

This entire fight continues to highlight the growing disconnect between the representatives of the people and the people themselves. British electoral politics is opaque and designed, like the U.S.’s, to ensure continuity at the top while the rubes in the rural areas are systematically disenfranchised.

Parliament is paralyzed by politics, conflicting loyalties and an over-inflated sense of self-importance. So is Congress here in the U.S. The difference is, however, that it looks pretty clear that Remainers aren’t willing to die on the Brexit hill while Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats will go full tilt off the cliff in their opposition to Trump.

Calls at this point for a second referendum are the face of absolute panic. May herself referenced the EU’s track record of forcing the people to vote again if they didn’t do so the way they wanted originally. That should leave little doubt as to where she stands on this.

And at this point I have to think she understands the stakes for Britain, the Tories and herself if this process is further compromised by a political class so corrupt, arrogant and misinformed that it refuses to acknowledge its growing irrelevancy.

The path on Brexit is clear: either the Remainers get together and submit a framework to Brussels which works for them that May can negotiate from or they revoke Article 50 and start the whole process over again.

For that to happen at this point requires a cross-party coup. And I saw none of that in the two hours I watched earlier in the week.

And all of the Remainers know they will be lynched if they try that.

So, another week and nothing has changed except that all the bleating and breast beating of the ‘No-Deal Equals Death’ crowd has amounted to very little.

A divided house cannot stand. A divided house cannot agree on something it doesn’t want even more so. May is right to stick to her guns here. It will leave her in a very strong place politically if she delivers a Brexit the people voted for and the politicians hate.

That’s the calculus she got right in this.

end

EU

Who on earth wants to buy this garbage: record demand for Spanish, Italian and Portuguese debt offering

(courtesy zerohedge)

No ECB, No Problem: Record Demand For Spanish, Italian And Portuguese Debt Offerings

After a brief hiatus in bond land driven by sharp stock market volatility, which saw a 40-day stretch without a single junk bond price in the primary market and a move wider in peripheral bonds, credit investors are again feeling the FOMO squeeze and expressed it vividly this morning in the form of record demand for sovereign bond offerings from Spain, following a similar scramble for debt sold by Spain and Portugal.

According to Bloomberg, sovereign bond offerings from Italy, Spain and Portugal in January have drawn “unprecedented”bid-side demand, for a total of €106 billion euros ($120 billion), up 14 percent from a year ago, helping a slide in peripheral euro-area yields in the past two weeks even as the ECB’s QE quietly fades away.

Spain saw the most demand by far, its offering nearly 5x oversubscribed, when it received €46.5BN in orders for €10BN, 10-year bond on Tuesday, following successful sales by Italy and Portugal earlier this month. The culprit behind the surge in demand: mostly Japanese pension funds and Mrs. Watanabe, as a breakdown of demand for Spain’s syndication showed Asian investors at 11.8%, up from 0.7% for the same offering in January 2018.

With investors once again scrambling to buy European paper, even with the ECB no longer officially in the picture except for reinvestments of maturing bonds, Spanish yields have fallen 17bps in the past two weeks, while Italian yields are down 21 bps alongside a broader surge in risk. Greece could also offer a medium-term bond soon, Danske Bank suggested.

As Bloomberg notes, the sales mark another step in the recovery for a region that saw sentiment weighed down by the risks of a deficit blow-out from Italy’s populist government. While rating companies downgraded Italy last year, Portugal was raised from junk status and Spain was upgraded. Now the nations are starting to benefit as investors are drawn to their relatively high yields.

“Volatility in Italy left tons of pent-up demand,” said Jaime Costero, a rates strategist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Madrid. There is also greater structural demand as the rating upgrades have drawn “new investors and wider credit lines,” he said.

Market sentiment has improved materially after Italy resolved a dispute with the European Union over its 2019 budget deficit, while weaker regional economic data spurred fears of a slowdown that may lead the European Central Bank to be more cautious about removing stimulus.

“There has been a widespread belief among investors that rates will likely remain low for longer, with central banks likely to be very cautious in pushing rates higher,” said SocGen strategist Jorge Garayo, quoted by Bloomberg. “Low volatility combined with a low level of rates has led investors to overweight periphery, more so with more market-friendly political posturing.”

Of course, it will likely be a different story should the recent return in market jitters spread, once again hitting the high-beta peripheral bond sector. For now, however, both Spain and Italy are delighted that even without the ECB’s backstop investors just can’t get enough of funding their deficit.

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Canada

This is not good for Canada as retail sales tumble .9% month over month. Previous retail sales from August to Oct. were also revised downwards.  Canada has joined the rest of the world in a downward spiral

(courtesy zerohedge)

Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Retail Sales Crumble

Amid the absence of US macro data due to the shutdown, it seems Canada (and China) are making up for it – by crushing the goldilocks dream.

Canada retail sales fell 0.9% to C$50.4B in November, according to Statistics Canada (which did not need to ask the US for the data this time). This was well below the expected decline of 0.6% and Retail sales from August to October were all revised downwards.

Sales fell in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 75% of total retail trade

  • Largest upside contributor on month was the general merchandise category, 0.20 percentage points
  • Largest downside contributor on month was the gasoline stations category, -0.53 percentage points

And the reaction was immediate weakness in the Loonie…

On the bright side, Cannabis sales total C$54 million in November.

 

end

 

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Zimbabwe

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1363 DOWN .0007 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109;66  UP 0.304 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…DEADLY TO OUR YEN SHORTERS

GBP/USA 1.3027     UP   0.0071  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3318 DOWN .0039 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1401/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED  UP 1.30 POINTS OR 0.05% 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 2.75 POINTS OR 0.01%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.26%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 29.19 POINTS OR 0.14%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 2.75 POINTS OR 0.01% 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.30 PTS OR 0.05%

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .26%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 29.19 PTS OR 0.14%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1285.00

silver:$15.40

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.76% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.08 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.26 DOWN 4 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.71% DOWN 2    in basis point(s) yield from  TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.31% DOWN 2   IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.75 UP 1     POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 134 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.23%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.52% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1392 UP   .0034 or 34 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 109.44 UP  0.084 OR 8 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3073 UP .01176( POUND UP 118  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 3 basis points to 1.3360

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.7920 0N SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7949(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2914

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.01%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN  2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.74 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.06 DOWN 2  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.09 DOWN  21  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 58.51 OR 0.85%

German Dax : DOWN 18.57 POINTS OR 0.17%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 7.15 POINTS OR 0.15%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 91.30 POINTS OR  1.01%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 37.12 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 52.31 12:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 60.42 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.15  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.35 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 35 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.2914 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.23 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :

 

 

BRENT :

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: …

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD:

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  ( DOWN    BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN: DOWN 0 (YEN   BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX:  UP 1 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:  UP POINTS FROM FRIDAY

the Turkish lira close:

the Russian rouble:   DOWN .13 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 13 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  DOWN 51 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :   (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):   (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.24%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 301.87 POINTS OR 1.22%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 136.87 POINTS OR 1.91%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.99 CLOSED UP 3.19 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.779%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/

 

FROM 2.773

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Stocks, Dollar Slide As Global Growth Gloom Grows

No one wins today…

Chinese stocks trod water overnight…

 

European markets pumped and dumped…Spain is leading on the week and UK’s FTSE the laggard…

 

US Markets were a mixed bag as earnings beats mixed with multiple macro headlines leaving the indices notably dispersed…

In cash markets, Dow outperformed thanks to IBM, UTX, and P&G (as FDX and UPS dragged on other indices after a downgrade)…

White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett said that if the partial government shutdown extends through March, there’s a chance of zero economic expansion this quarter, though “humongous” growth would follow once federal agencies reopen. Oil’s retreat weighed on energy producers and service providers.

“The broader concern that I think will continue to creep in here is, leaving trade aside, is how weak is global growth? How weak is China’s growth?” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co.

Trade-talks rhetoric ratcheted up with China warning that US markets would crash if Trump did not do a deal (therefore suggesting he is under pressure to do a deal since he lives and dies by the stock market). However, later in the day, Trump responded by threatening that more tariffs will be unleashed if the Chinese do not come towards his goals.

Overall the score seems to be Kudlow 1 – 0 Hassett…

This headline hit at 1435ET TRUMP’S OUTSIDE CHINA ADVISOR SAYS THERE WON’T BE BREAKTHROUGH IN TRADE TALKS SOON – CNBC – and stocks dipped but only enough for algos to BTFD.

 

VIX had a wild ride – from a 19 handle to over 21 and all the way back down again…

 

 

Treasury Yields ended the day marginally higher across the curve (but well off the day’s yield highs)…

 

The dollar dropped into the red for the week…

 

Offshore Yuan surged overnight up to the Fix…

 

Ether, Bitcoin, and Ripple dipped in the afternoon after CBOE withdrew its Bitcoin ETF request…

 

Another chaotic day in crude along with copper on China growth concerns and PMs managed to hold unchanged on the week…

 

WTI ranged between $52 and $53.50 on the day ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

 

Finally, earnings expectations continue to slide…(S&P Fwd EPS is at the lowest level in 5 months)

‘Soft’ survey sentiment has collapsed…

And the lifeblood of the rebound – central bank balance sheet expansion – has stalled once again…

And there’s one more thing…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

Someone should ask the bank CEOs as they all put on politician-like smiling faces, why if the economic outlook is so bright, T-notes & bonds are the fastest growing item on their balance sheets — the YoY pace is running at +14.5%.

END

market trading/

MARKET DATA

 

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Mish talks about 8 wall prototypes of which none meet operational standards or for that matter, Trump’s cost estimate..and it is far less than thought…

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Eight Wall Prototypes: None Meet Operational Standards Or Trump’s Cost Estimate

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

There are now 8 wall prototypes of varying cost and beauty. None meet operational standards or Trump’s purported cost.

Trump’s Slat Steel Barrier

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

A design of our Steel Slat Barrier which is totally effective while at the same time beautiful!

Standoff

A standoff over funding for President Donald Trump’s long-promised border wall has resulted in the longest-ever shutdown of the US government.

Trump wants $5.7 billion to build a beautiful wall to stop the “humanitarian and security crisis”.

House speaker Nancy Pelosi says no. So here we are. Let’s ponder designs and costs as described in Trump Wall – All You Need to Know.

No New Additions

Before Mr Trump took office, there were 654 miles of barrier along the southern border – made up of 354 miles of barriers to stop pedestrians and 300 miles of anti-vehicle fencing.

Trump wants a 2,000 mile wall.

Estimated Cost for Trump’s Wall

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) previously estimated a wall spanning half the border would cost up to $25 billion, but it has now said it is still looking at options to determine the price tag.

US Customs and Border Protection (CPB) says that, on average, it costs approximately $6.5 million per mile to construct a new border wall or replace existing legacy fence.

Assuming the current 654 miles are all usable, the math is simple enough. (2000 – 654) * $6.5 Million= $8,749,000,000. That is well under their estimate. If one assumes that the entire wall will be replaced, we arrive at $13 billion.

I do not believe these estimate include land cost, and they are also likely low-ball estimates. One can likely toss Senator McCaskill’s estimate out the window as well.

Eight Prototypes

Officials at the US Customs and Border Protection agency have said none of the Trump administration prototypes tested in 2017 met its operational requirements.

However, they did provide “valuable data” to help select design elements in the future, they added.

Illegal Immigration From Canada

Most illegal immigration is from visa ‘overstayers’, not people crossing the border. Although the number of overstayers overall dropped to around 420,000 in May 2018 – it was still more than the number of people arrested trying to enter illegally via the Mexico-US border.

Land Seizures Continue

The Texas Tribune reports feds moving ahead with land seizures for South Texas border wall.

As a national debate raged about family separations at the border, U.S. Customs and Border Protection told a group of South Texas officials earlier this week that the federal government plans to move forward with private land seizures in the Rio Grande Valley to build sections of President Donald Trump’s border wall.

An investigation last year by ProPublica and The Texas Tribune found that the federal government invoked a little-known Great Depression-era law that allowed it to swiftly seize land to build the barrier and compensate landowners later. Dozens of landowners whose property was taken for the barrier still haven’t received compensation as lawsuits over the fair value of the seized land linger in court.

The investigation also found that during the process the U.S. Department of Homeland Security cut unfair real estate deals, secretly waived legal safeguards for property owners and ultimately abused the government’s extraordinary power to take land from private citizens.

You may also wish to consider Trump’s border wall threatens to end Texas family’s 250 years of ranching on Rio Grande.

It’s easy to support the wall as long as it isn’t your property being seized, and your cattle’s access to water shut off.

And for what? It is unlikely to stop the flow of humans or drugs. If by some chance it stops drugs, prices will go up, and so will the number of crimes committed to pay for drugs.

Death Wall Might Work

If you want to build a wall that works, make it a double wall each 6 feet tall, with 40 yards separating the walls.

Shoot anything with two legs that enters the zone. After a few deaths and huge public outcry, the illegal entries from Mexico would stop.

That is not a serious suggestion, I am merely stating a wall plan that would be cheaper and arguably work better.

How badly do we want to protect our borders?

A Better Wall

Alternatively, and better yet, enforce e-Verify, place stiff penalties on companies that violate it, and shut off all benefits for illegals.

In the grand scheme of things, $6 billion for a wall or even $20 billion is not a lot of money.

Were it not for the odious land grab, and threats of property ending up on the wrong side of the fence (it has happened already), one might conclude “it’s a small price to pay”.

However, people who make such rationalizations are seldom the ones paying the “small price”.

end
The Shutdown is now 31 days and we have now have two missing paycheck periods.  It seems that the IRS employees are starting to bail
(courtesy zerohedge)

Shutdown Woes Deepen As 800,000 Federal Workers To Miss Second Paycheck; IRS Employees Bail

With negotiations behind the partial government shutdown showing no signs of a breakthrough, an estimated 800,000 government employees are set to miss a second paycheck on Friday.

Roughly 420,000 federal employees are working without pay, while around 380,000 have been furloughed amid the longest shutdown in US history, according to CNBC.

While the actual economic impacts are thus far thought to be limited, specific companies and industries are feeling the effects.

Commercial airlines, for example, are facing slower demand as airports struggle with understaffed security checkpoints, are losing revenue. Last week, Delta said it had lost $25 million in revenue on account of the shutdown.

The hit to the overall gross domestic product in the first quarter is also difficult to quantify. Economists have come up with a range of numbers, but they agree that the longer the shutdown goes on, the wider the damage to economic growth. –CNBC

Hundreds of IRS employees, meanwhile, will probably skip work as part of a coordinated protest which takes advantage of a provision which allows them to stay home if they suffer a “hardship,” according to the Washington Post. With IRS offices headed into their busiest time of the year, the the shutdown may result in delayed refunds and frustrating wait times, despite President Trump’s promise not to delay payments.

I have fielded no less than 30 to 40 calls, emails or text messages about hardship requests from employees daily since Thursday,” said Shannon Ellis, President of the National Treasury Employees Union.

IRS employee Christine Helquist joins a protest rally in Ogden, Utah, on Jan. 10. (Rick Bowmer/AP)

The Trump administration last week ordered at least 30,000 IRS workers back to their offices, where they have been working to process refunds without pay. It was one of the biggest steps the government has taken to mitigate the shutdown’s impact on Americans’ lives.

But IRS employees across the country — some in coordinated protest, others out of financial necessity — won’t be clocking in, according to Tony Reardon, president of the National Treasury Employees Union, and several local union officials. The work action is widespread and includes employees from a processing center in Ogden, Utah, to the Brookhaven campus on New York’s Long Island. –Washington Post

Prospects for reopening the government were grim on Tuesday after President Trump’s latest proposal to end the impasse (which outraged immigration hard-liners), was immediately rejected by Democrats. His plan, which includes funding for most public agencies, promises to DACA recipients, and of course – funding for his wall, is headed for a vote this week in the Senate where it is anticipated to fail.

Trump maintains that he won’t sign any bill that does not fund the long-promised border wall.

Stretched workers are struggling

According to University of Michigan economist Michael Gelman and four colleagues, many furloughed federal workers will be forced to delay paying the mortgage or credit card payments.

The study looked at the effects of the 2013 government shutdown on nearly 7,000 federal workers – both those affected by the shutdown and not – along with more than 90,000 non-federal workers.

The researchers found that the median worker in the study had only enough cash or other liquid assets to cover just eight days of their average household spending. That cushion fell to just five days of spending just before payday. The bottom third of the group had, on average, a combined checking and savings account balance of zero on the day before their paycheck arrived. –CNBC

“Even if there are penalties or costs, late payment of a mortgage is a source of credit that is available without the burden of applying for credit,” write the authors.

For the most part, effected federal workers didn’t use credit cards to make up for their lost wages in 2013 – they simply postponed payments on outstanding debt. That said, the 2013 shutdown only lasted two weeks, while workers in the current shutdown will miss their second pay cycle – forcing many who have missed credit payments to face late fees.

Furloughed IRS tax examiner Will Kohler of Covington, Kentucky has run into an entirely different type of problem during the shutdown; his application for unemployment benefits is in limbo because the Treasury Department responsible for verifying his claim is closed thanks to the shutdown.

Kohler, who makes $38,000 a year, said many co-workers are in the same predicament. Not a single one has been approved for unemployment, he said. Kohler said workers like him are stuck in a difficult position, in part because they are restricted by government ethics rules from getting many kinds of outside work. –CNBC

“When it gets to a point where government employees have to go to a food bank, this is not the America that I grew up in,” said Kohler. “It’s mind-boggling. It really is.”

SWAMP STORIES

Buzz Feed actually details documents on the Trump Tower project in Moscow

(courtesy zerohedge)

BuzzFeed Throws Hail Mary: Publishes New Trump Tower Moscow Docs

After last week’s embarrassing debacle in which special counsel Robert Mueller issued a rare statement calling bullshit on BuzzFeed over their Trump Tower Moscow report that Trump ordered his attorney Michael Cohen to lie about the timeline, the beleaguered news outlet has taken a second bite at the apple with a new report (oddly written by a completely different journalist) refuting comments by Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani that “no plans were ever made” for the project.

Not so fast Rudy

In their new report, BuzzFeed claims that the Trump Tower Moscow idea was “led by Trump’s then-lawyer, Michael Cohen, and his associate Felix Sater” despite writing in November that Sater both thought of and spearheaded the idea, turning to Cohen to “get it off the ground” while overpromising that he could seal the deal through his Russian connections that never panned out.

Sater, a brash real estate promoter who pleaded guilty to racketeering in 1998 and became a longtime asset to US law enforcement and intelligence agencies, had worked with the Trump Organization on deals in the past and said he came up with the idea. Cohen, Sater recalled, said, “Great idea.” –BuzzFeed

Today’s “gotcha,” however is that the project had progressed much further than Giuliani claimed on Monday when he told the New Yorker “no plans were ever made. There were no drafts. Nothing in the file.”Not true, writes BuzzFeed’s Azeen Ghorayshi.

The president and his representatives have dismissed the project as little more than a notion — a rough plan led by Trump’s then-lawyer, Michael Cohen, and his associate Felix Sater, of which Trump and his family said they were only loosely aware as the election campaign gathered pace.

On Monday, his lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, said “the proposal was in the earliest stage,” and he went on to tell the New Yorker that “no plans were ever made. There were no drafts. Nothing in the file.”

However, hundreds of pages of business documents, emails, text messages, and architectural plans, obtained by BuzzFeed News over a year of reporting, tell a very different story. Trump Tower Moscow was a richly imagined vision of upscale splendor on the banks of the Moscow River. –BuzzFeed

Trump Tower Moscow hasn’t exactly been a secret, admits BuzzFeed, noting that Donald Trump tweeted about it following the 2013 Miss Universe pageant, and writing in his book The Art of the Deal that he had been trying to expand his business empire into Russia for over 30 years.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

@AgalarovAras I had a great weekend with you and your family. You have done a FANTASTIC job. TRUMP TOWER-MOSCOW is next. EMIN was WOW!

Over the last week, Giuliani admitted to the New York Times that the Trump Tower Moscow discussions were “going on from the day I announced to the day I won,” Giuliani quoted Trump as saying. He then walked back those comments, claiming in a statement: “My recent statements about discussions during the 2016 campaign between Michael Cohen and then-candidate Donald Trump about a potential Trump Moscow ‘project’ were hypothetical and not based on conversations I had with the President.”

In other words, Giuliani is a walking gaffe machine – which we already knew.

That said, the Trump Tower moscow project appears to have been much more developed than anyone in the Trump camp has acknowledged.

According to a finalized letter of intent signed by Donald Trump on Oct. 28, 2015, the tower would have “approximately 250 first class, luxury residential condominiums.”

It would be located in Moscow City, a former industrial complex outside of the city center that has since been converted into an ambitious commercial district clustered with several of the tallest skyscrapers in Europe.

Its hotel portion would feature “approximately 15 floors” and contain “not fewer than 150 hotel rooms,” the letter of intent stated. The building would feature a luxury spa and fitness center, a commercial component “consistent with the overall luxury level of the Property,” and an office space “consistent with Class A luxury office properties,” as well as “luxury” parking. –BuzzFeed

Also in the plan was “The Spa By Ivanka Trump,” as well as a $50 million penthouse suite that they would give to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “My idea was to give a $50 million penthouse to Putin and charge $250 million more for the rest of the units,” Sater told BuzzFeed in November. “All the oligarchs would line up to live in the same building as Putin.”

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/398020508/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-MZjheYwn1NRQWI4A8iHk&show_recommendations=true

Show Trump the money

The Trump Organization stood to make $4 million on an up-front payment for the deal; 25% of which would be paid upon execution of the licensing agreement, another quarter when they finalized a location, and the other half a week before the project’s groundbreaking – or two years after the execution of the licensing agreement, whichever came first.

From there on out, Trump’s company would also get a cut of all the condominium sales at the tower, the agreement stated. From the total selling price of each unit, his company would get 5% for sales up to $100 million, 4% for the next bracket up to $250 million, 3% for anything between that and $500 million, 2% for anything up to $1 billion, and thereafter, a solid cut of 1%. For commercial and office spaces, it would get a 3% cut of all the rent. It’d get another 3% of sales on food and beverages, spa and fitness center use, and conference fees.

The deal also stipulated how much Trump’s management company would get paid for running operations at Trump Tower Moscow over 25 years. For the first five years, it would get 3% of all revenue generated by operating the hotel per month. Over the next two decades, it’d receive a flat 4%. In addition, the management company would also receive a monthly “incentive fee” — an additional 20% of the gross operating profit for the hotel — subject to annual negotiations. –BuzzFeed

At the end of the day, Trump Tower Moscow has never happened – and Trump himself has turned out to be the worst “Putin Puppet” ever after slapping heavy sanctions on Moscow and selling Ukraine weapons that the Obama administration wouldn’t.

“Let’s make this happen and build a Trump Moscow,” wrote Sater to Cohen in October of 2015. “And possibly fix relations between the countries by showing everyone that commerce & business are much better and more practical than politics. … Help world peace and make a lot of money, I would say that’s a great lifetime goal for us to go after.”

END
Trump is now furious with Giuliani after many botched interview
(courtesy zero hedge)

“Rudy Has Lost His Mind”: Trump Furious With Giuliani After String Of Botched Interviews

It could be a while before Americans see former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani back on cable news defending President Trump and rebutting the latest batch of Mueller probe leaks. According to the Associated Press, Trump is furious with his lead attorney after Giuliani made an array of misstatements and slips during interviews over the past week, squandering a golden opportunity to push back against the Mueller probe and the “opposition party” media after BuzzFeed’s embarrassingly inaccurate report that Trump had instructed Michael Cohen to lie to Congress (a report that was disputed by Mueller’s office in an unprecedented move).

Though this isn’t the first time Giuliani has botched a cable news interview and been temporarily yanked from the administration’s batting order, the AP says Trump’s patience with Giuliani – with whom he regularly speaks – is almost at its end, and some are pushing the president to start looking for a new lead attorney.

Giuliani

Reports about Trump’s frustration with Giuliani, as well as renewed calls for a blanket ban on future interviews, follow a spectacular string of gaffes that began Sunday with an embarrassing appearance on Meet the Press where Giuliani suggested that the Trump Tower Moscow talks had continued through the election and continued during a New Yorker interview where Giuliani seemed to suggest that he had heard tapes made by Michael Cohen of his conversations with the president – tapes that haven’t been previously acknowledged.

Vanity Fair’s Gabriel Sherman reported that the campaign to oust Giuliani is being led by Ivanka and Jared, who worry that it’s only a matter of time before Giuliani says something irredeemably damaging about the president. Some inside Trump’s inner circle worry that Giuliani has “lost his mind.” Moreover, the Associated Press reported that some want to bar Giuliani from participating in evening interviews because they worry that he has been drinking before going on-air.

Some of Trump’s allies have suggested that Giuliani be barred from evening interviews because of concerns that he was going on TV after drinking, according to three Republicans close to the White House. Giuliani has previously insisted he does not have an issue with drinking, denying to Politico last May that it affected his interviews. He added: “I may have a drink for dinner. I like to drink with cigars.”

Like many of his peers in the administration, Giuliani is reportedly extremely dissatisfied with his job as Trump’s attorney due mostly to his boss’s mercurial temper (something that has no doubt been aggravated by Giuliani’s erratic behavior).

As I’ve previously reported, the Trump-Giuliani relationship hasn’t been good for weeks. Giuliani has said privately that he “hates the job” and that Mueller’s final report will be “horrific” for Trump. Facing these challenges and pressures, it’s understandable he would make mistakes, the thinking goes. “Everyone who works for Trump screws up because there’s no way to please the guy,” an outside Trump adviser said.

So why does he stay? Perhaps because, after years of irrelevance following his spectacular failure during the 2008 Republican primary, Giuliani enjoys the press attention. He regularly texts with news anchors. Still, the modern media environment isn’t what it once was, and Giuliani has definitely struggled to adapt.

“There’s a school of thought that it’s better to be famous and ridiculed than ignored,” a Giuliani friend told me. But the media environment has become vastly more complicated than it was a decade ago, the last time Giuliani was on the national stage, and he has struggled to adapt. “This has been a trial by fire for him,” the friend said. “He can’t just say whatever he wants, because he’s being fact-checked on Twitter. Every time he does anything he gets caught.”

But, frustrating as the job may be, Giuliani also may be addicted to it. Friends said the former New York mayor was embittered after being out of the limelight for years following his failed 2008 presidential campaign. He’s been exhilarated by the press attention that comes with being Trump’s lawyer. Sources said Giuliani often books his own interviews and frequently texts with television news anchors. “There’s a school of thought that it’s better to be famous and ridiculed than ignored,” a Giuliani friend told me. But the media environment has become vastly more complicated than it was a decade ago, the last time Giuliani was on the national stage, and he has struggled to adapt. “This has been a trial by fire for him,” the friend said. “He can’t just say whatever he wants, because he’s being fact-checked on Twitter. Every time he does anything he gets caught.”

Still, after struggling to find an attack-dog-in-chief to lead his legal team, Trump has been otherwise happy with Giuliani’s approach. In other words, when he’s on, he’s on. But his most recent performances represented a “major slip.”

“Rudy had done a very good job going on TV and fighting back and laying down a defense of the president,” said Sam Nunberg, a former Trump campaign official. “But now it’s time to get precise, you can’t be so loose anymore. He had a major slip.”

But Giuliani has slipped up before. And with Mueller reportedly closing in on the final stages of his investigation, which is expected to end with a lengthy report about Trump’s misdeeds that Giuliani is expected to rebut, switching horses mid-race also carries risks of its own.

END

Trump Tells Pelosi He Will Deliver State Of The Union Speech As Planned

President Trump has rebuffed Speaker Pelosi’s politically-charged threat to delay his speech due to the shutdown, saying in a letter that he plans to deliver the State of the Union Address at the House chamber as planned on Tuesday as scheduled (accepting an invitation that Pelosi had sent earlier in the year).

Pelosi had suggested Trump consider delaying the speech if the shutdown continued, citing security concerns because Secret Service agents and Department of Homeland Security staff aren’t being paid during the shutdown.

However, both have reassured Trump that security will not be a problem and so he sent the following letter to the California Democrat:

Dear Madam Speaker:

Thank you for your letter of January 3, 2019, sent to me long after the Shutdown began, inviting me to address the Nation on January 29th as to the State of the Union.

As you know, I had already accepted your kind invitation, however, I then received another letter from you dated January 16, 2019, wherein you expressed concerns regarding security during the State of the Union Address due to the Shutdown. Even prior to asking, I was contacted by the Department of Homeland Security and the United States Secret Service to explain that there would be absolutely no problem regarding security with respect to the event. They have since confirmed this publicly.

Accordingly, there are no security concerns regarding the State of the Union Address. Therefore, I will be honoring your invitation, and fulfilling my Constitutional duty, to deliver important information to the people and Congress of the United States of America regarding the State of our Union.

I look forward to seeing you on the evening on January 29th in the Chamber of the House of Representatives. It would be so very sad for our Country if the State of the Union were not delivered on time, on schedule, and very importantly, on location!

So what will Nancy do next? Politico’s Jake Sherman notes that…

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

Again …

The House and Senate have to pass a resolution to allow the president to give the State of the Union.

Jennifer Epstein

@jeneps

New Trump letter to Pelosi says he’s moving ahead with accepting her invite (since rescinded) to deliver the State of the Union address in the House chamber on Jan. 29

Or there are alternatives…

END
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

end

I WILL SEE YOU ON THURSDAY/LATE WITH COMEX DATA
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