JAN 24/GOLD DOWN $3.70 TO $1280.90//SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS///QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS TO BOTH GOLD AND SILVER//HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR SILVER/CHINA STOPS MICROSOFT’S BING FROM ENTERING CHINA///CHAOS IN VENEZUELA/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1280.90 DOWN $3.70 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $15.30 DOWN 7 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1281.50

 

silver: $15.32

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

JANUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR 400 OZ (0.0124 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  555 NOTICES FOR 55100 OZ  (1.7262 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JANUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 811 for 4,055,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3561: UP 10

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3564 UP   $13 

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 2/4

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,283.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/23/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 01/25/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 2
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 4 4
MONTH TO DATE: 555

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 681 CONTRACTS FROM 188,674 DOWN TO 187,993 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 4 CENT GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED SLIGHTLY FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

2538 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2538 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2538 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2538 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.995 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

 21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

AND NOW: INITIALLY 5.805 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY: 34,414 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 34,414 CONTRACTS) OR 172.070 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2160 CONTRACTS OR 10.754 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  172.07 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 24.58% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           172.07    MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 681 DESPITE THE 4 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2538 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 1857 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2638 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 681 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 4 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.37 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .896 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 128% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 13 NOTICE(S) FOR 65,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ  AND NOW JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 11,293 CONTRACTS UP TO 524,802 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $0.50//YESTERDAY’S TRADING)

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 6530 CONTRACTS:

 

FEBRUARY HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 6530 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 524,802. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,823 CONTRACTS: 11,930 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6530 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 17,823 CONTRACTS OR 1,782,300 OZ = 55.43 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A TINY RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $0.50???

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 8694 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY : 125,668 CONTRACTS OR 12,566,800 OZ  OR 390.88 TONNES (16 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7854 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 390.88 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 390.88/2550 x 100% TONNES = 15.32% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     390.88  TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 11,293 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($0,50) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6530 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6530 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG GAIN OF 17,823 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6530 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 11,293 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 55.43 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $0.50 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??????????.  THIS IS THE 7TH STRAIGHT DAY THAT WE RECORDED STRONG RISES IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES!

 

 

we had: 4 notice(s) filed upon for 400 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY 

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   809.76 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 809.76 tonnes.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN  7 CENTS IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 681 CONTRACTS from 188,674 DOWN TO 187,993  AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

2538 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2538 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 681 CONTRACTS TO THE 2538 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN  OF 1857  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9.285 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER AND 5.825 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 4 CENT PRICING RISE THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 2538 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.69 PTS OR 0.41% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 112.78 POINTS OR 0.42% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 19.09  PTS OR 0.09%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.37%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7933 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 52.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED /GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7933 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8019: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA/Sweden

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

i)CHINA/USA

China blocks the only foreign search engine, Microsoft’s Bing.  I have no idea what Kudlow was thinking but there is not a chance of a trade agreement with the USA

(zerohedge)

 

 

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i) UK

Metro bank, a mid tear British bank with 66 outlets crashes to record low after mismarking its loan book

( zerohedge)

ii)Our resident expert, Tom Luongo on European affairs and Brexit) weighs in on the BREXIT situation and claims that it is the Remainders who are worried.

( Tom Luongo)
iii)ECB

Rates are left unchanged and now Draghi speaks:
( zerohedge)

iv)Mark Cudmore of Bloomberg warns that Draghi will send the euro downward as risks surface to the downside

( Cudmore/Bloomberg)

v)And on cue:  the Euro tumbles after Draghi states the obvious:  risks have moved to the downside
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Syria/Russia/Turkey/ISIS

The last holdout position inside Syria is Idlib province where ISIS controls its last bit of territory.  Russia and Turkey had an agreement upon which Turkey would head southbound Syria and blow out the last of iSIS.  Moscow is angry as Turkey did not live up to its bargain.  Why?  it is only interested in obliterating the Kurds who are north of Idlib province

( zerohedge)

ii)ISRAEL/SYRIA

Not good:  UN official states any more Israel aggression inside Syria will be met with Syria attacking Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, Israel. If this were to occur, you can bet a full scale war will develop

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)RUSSIA/USA/VENEZUELA

Russia warns the USA to stay out the conflict in Venezuela.  This is unusual as the Venezuela is in the sphere of influence of the USA.  The problem of course is the huge amount of money Russia loaned Venezuela.   The USA does not Russia having a big say in the affairs of Venezuela.  Also remember that Citgo is owned by Venezuela

(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)VENEZUELA

Not good:  Maduro kicks out USA diplomats from Venezuela

( zerohedge)

ii)Trump backs the opposition leader as acting president, Guaido, as conditions inside Venezuela are chaotic after a failed  coup

( zerohedge)

iii)USA refuses to withdraw diplomats from Venezuela and announces that it will take appropriate actions if anyone is harmed.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Craig Hemke believes that we will shortly have an end to QT and that will be the signal for gold/silver to rise to record levels
( Craig Hemke/GATA/Sprott)
ii)John Hathaway points out correctly that the gold mergers that we are experiencing is due to lack of discoveries..much to the anger of the bullion banks(Hathaway/GATA)

iii)Chris Powell explains why GATA is not invited to make presentations in Canada again especially at  Cambridge House International.   Swenson reports on the disappointing attendance at the Vancouver Resource Investment and Chris Powell explains why this was so

( Chris Powell/GATA)

 

iv)Countries continue to stockpile gold.

( Lawrence Thomas/GoldTelegraph.com)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

As promised: futures slide after Wilbur Ross states the truth:  China and the USA are miles apart
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

ii)Market data/

Service PMI USA falls to a 4 month low but supposedly mfg rebounds a bit /soft survey data  basically collapses

( zerohedge)

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Cohen postpones House testimony citing threats from Trump and Giuliani

( zerohedge)

b)Trump delays his state of the union speech
( zerohedge)
c)Cohen receives a subpoena from the Intel Committee and thus he agrees to appear:

( zerohedge)
d)The anatomy of the crime revealed:  Clinton’s 2016 strategy has now been uncovered…overwhelm the FBI with Trump/Russia narrative until something sticks

(courtesy zerohedge
e)Two votes fail to win legislation to end the shutdown in the Senate(courtesy zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

 

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN ROSE BY AN HUMONGOUS SIZED 11,293 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 524,802 DESPITE THE TINY RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($0.50) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6530 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR FEBRUARY:  6530 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6530 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  17,823 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6530 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 11,293 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 17,823 contracts OR 1,782,300  OZ OR 55.43 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of JANUARY and here the open interest stands at 56 contracts as we GAINED 1 contracts. We had 7 notices filed on yesterday so we GAINED 8 contracts or 800 ADDITIONAL oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next active delivery month is February and here the OI LOST  14,662 contracts DOWN to 187,790 contracts.  After February, March LOST 159 contracts to stand at 965.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI rose by 22,860 contracts up to 232,700 contracts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE  January 2018 contract month

 

 

ON JANUARY 1/2018: 1.297 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY  (Jan 1 2019 initial standing 1.306 tonnes)

EVENTUALLY ON JAN 31.2018: 2.17 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX

 

 

WE HAD 4 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 400 OZ. (0..0124 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 681 CONTRACTS FROM 188,674 DOWN TO 187,993(AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS 359 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 2 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 5 CONTRACTS OR  25,000 ADDITIONAL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR SILVER AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IS THE NORM AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THE DEALERS SCRAMBLE FOR WHATEVER PHYSICAL THEY CAN OBTAIN.

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS FEBRUARY AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 15 CONTRACTS UP TO 464. AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 1186 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 137,721 CONTRACTS.

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1857 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 681 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2538 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1857 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH A 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH AND JANUARY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE JAN 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD A GOOD 2.695 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY’

AT THE CONCLUSION OF JAN/2018 WE HAD 3.650 MILLION OZ STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NORM FOR SILVER

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 4 notice(s) filed for 20,000 OZ for the FEB, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  371,205 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  265.854  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 24/2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

NIL

 

OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
4 notice(s)
 400 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
52 contracts
(5200 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
555 notices
55,500 OZ
1.7262 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  NIL oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  nil oz

 

we had 3  adjustments….and all are dealer to the customer and thus settlements;
a) 801.057 oz was adjusted out of the dealer, Delaware and this lands into the customer of Delaware
b) 897.133 oz was adjusted out of the dealer HSBC and this lands into the customer of HSBC
c) 96.45 oz was adjusted out of the dealer Int. Delaware and this lands into the customer of Int. D
total: 1794.65 oz

FOR THE JAN 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 4 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (555) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (56 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz per contract) equals 60,700 OZ OR 1.880 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON  active month of JANUARY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (555 x 100 oz)  + {56)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz )which equals 60,70oz standing OR 1.8880 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JANUARY.

Today we GAINED 8 contracts or an additional 800 oz will stand in this non active month of January

.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.055 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.888 TONNES STANDING FOR JANUARY

LAST MONTH WE HAVE 23.37 TONNES OF GOLD SUPPOSEDLY DELIVERED UPON BUT THIS AMOUNT OF GOLD DID NOT LEAVE THE REGISTERED GOLD CATEGORY AT THE COMEX.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  741,224.637 oz or   23.055 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,421,042.04 oz 261.92 tonnes

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 92 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

JAN INITIAL standings/SILVER

JAN 24, 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
913,301.098 oz
HSBC
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,025,226.960 oz
HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
4
CONTRACT(S)
20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
355 contracts
1,775,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 811 contracts

(4,055,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits:  nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.77% of all official comex silver. (149.787 million/295 million)

ii) into HSBC:  1,025,226.960 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 1,025,226.960   oz

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of HSBC:  113,398.400 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 805,902.698 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  913,301.098   oz

 

we had 4 adjustments..and all settlements, dealer to customer:

i) from CNT: 153,050.56 oz

ii) from Delaware: 20,899.215 oz

iii) from HSBC: 376,380.330 oz

iv) from I – D // 14,607.871 oz

 

 

total dealer silver:  86.112 million

total dealer + customer silver:  295.324 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY 2019. contract month is represented by 4 contract(s) FOR 20,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 811 x 5,000 oz = 4,055,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (359) and the number of notices served upon today (4x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY/2019 contract month: 811(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN( 359) -number of notices served upon today (4)x 5000 oz equals 5,830,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month. We gained 5 contracts or an additional 25,000 oz will  stand for delivery and these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  82,222 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 58,407 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 58,407 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 292 million OZ  41.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.94% (JAN 24/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.77% to NAV (JAN 24 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.94%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.01/TRADING 12.58/DISCOUNT 3.37

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

jAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70?: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP 50 CENTS: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD UP A TINY $.85 A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE FRAUDULENT GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 STRANGELY A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $8.65: A MASSIVE 15.88 TONNES WAS ADDED INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 790.02 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $0.15: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $15.15: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.15 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.14 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JAN 24/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 809.76 tonnes

*IN LAST 540 TRADING DAYS: 125.39 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 440 TRADING DAYS: A NET 34.64 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: A HUGE LOSS OF 938,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.179 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/SLV IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.189 MILLION OZ/

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/NO DOUBT THE MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF PAPER SILVER WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.895 MILLION OZ./INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110 MILLION OZ/

JAN 16/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.158 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.005 MILLION OZ/

JAN 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 469,000 OZ FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.163 MILLION OZ/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN ADDITION OF 94,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317,233

DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.408 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/ INV. RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

 

 

JAN 24/2019:

 

Inventory 307.251 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.31/ and libor 6 month duration 2.85

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .54

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.59%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.04

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.45

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Brexit – The Pin That Is Bursting The London Property Bubble

– Investors need a ‘Plan B’ to protect against Brexit, currency, property and other risks
– Brexit uncertainty is impacting Irish and UK consumers, companies and economy
– London home asking prices slump below £600,000: Lowest since 2015 but still very over valued
– UK house prices make weakest start to year since 2012: Up to 25% wiped off house prices in some of UK’s wealthiest areas
– NYC, Paris, Dublin, Hong Kong, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney, Melbourne etc housing markets slowing
– Investors, pension owners should re-balance portfolios & diversify into physical gold

 

News and Commentary

Gold firm as growth concerns, U.S. govt shutdown drag dollar (Reuters.com)

White House chief economist: May see ‘zero’ growth in Q1 because of shutdown (CNBC.com)

U.S. mortgage applications slip from 11-month peak (Reuters.com)

ECB to acknowledge weak growth but keep policy unchanged (Reuters.com)

Russia calls moves to oust Venezuela’s Maduro illegal (Reuters.com)

Fed to Probe Deutsche Bank Over Suspicious Danske Cash (Bloomberg.com)


Source: Bloomberg

Goldman Sach’s Currie is Bullish on Gold for 3 Reasons (Bloomberg Video) (Bloomberg.com)

German Manufacturing Slump Casts Cloud Over Europe’s Economy (Bloomberg.com)

Replace U.S. dollar with Russian gold – Moscow Exchange Chief (RT.com)

Gold mergers signify lack of discoveries, junior acquisitions likely – Hathaway (PalisadeRadio.com)

Bridgewater Co-CIO: It Will Be Worse Than Everyone Expects (Bloomberg.com)

Listen on iTunes,Blubrry & SoundCloud  & watch on YouTube above

 

Own gold and silver bullion coins and bars in allocated and segregated storage -with the ability to take delivery easily – in the safest vaults in the safest jurisdictions in the world.

 

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

23 Jan: USD 1,284.90, GBP 990.14 & EUR 1,131.74 per ounce
22 Jan: USD 1,284.75, GBP 994.14 & EUR 1,130.58 per ounce
21 Jan: USD 1,278.70, GBP 995.08 & EUR 1,124.11 per ounce
18 Jan: USD 1,285.05, GBP 993.34 & EUR 1,126.86 per ounce
17 Jan: USD 1,294.00, GBP 1,004.92 & EUR 1,135.87 per ounce
16 Jan: USD 1,290.50, GBP 1,002.46 & EUR 1,130.99 per ounce
15 Jan: USD 1,289.35, GBP 1,002.99 & EUR 1,127.67 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

23 Jan: USD 15.38, GBP 11.80 & EUR 13.54 per ounce
22 Jan: USD 15.26, GBP 11.84 & EUR 13.44 per ounce
21 Jan: USD 15.26, GBP 11.86 & EUR 13.42 per ounce
18 Jan: USD 15.47, GBP 11.96 & EUR 13.56 per ounce
17 Jan: USD 15.57, GBP 12.08 & EUR 13.66 per ounce
16 Jan: USD 15.54, GBP 12.09 & EUR 13.66 per ounce
15 Jan: USD 15.60, GBP 12.13 & EUR 13.65 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Davos: David Attenborough Warns We Are Damaging The World ‘Beyond Repair’
– Gold May Return 25% In 2019 Given Brexit, Trump and Other Risks – IG TV Interview GoldCore
– Brexit, EU, Germany, China and Yellow Vests In 2019 – Something Wicked This Way Comes
– Three Reasons Gold May Embark On An Extended Rally
– Political Turmoil in UK & US Sees Gold Hit 2 Week High
– Gold Holds Steady Over €1,100/oz – Increased Possibility Of A Disorderly Brexit
– Turbulence and Brexit Make Safer Options Like Gold and Cash Essential
– Where Will The “Pending” Financial Crisis Originate?
– Gold and Silver Prices To Rise To $1,650 and $30 By 2020? Video Update
– Gold Outlook 2019: Uncertainty Makes Gold A “Valuable Strategic Asset” – WGC
– Blackrock Say Gold Will Be A “Valuable Portfolio Hedge” In 2019

Listen on iTunes,Blubrry & SoundCloud  & watch on YouTube above

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
Craig Hemke believes that we will shortly have an end to QT and that will be the signal for gold/silver to rise to record levels
(courtesy Craig Hemke/GATA/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Bullion banks can’t block this rally for long

 Section: 

10:55a ET Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing today at Sprott Money, predicts that the end of “quantitative tightening” and resumption of interest rate cuts will overcome bullion bank efforts to block the rally underway in the gold price. Hemke’s analysis is headlined “The Short-Term Outlook for Gold” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-short-term-outlook-for-gold-craig-h…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc
CPowell@GATA.org

 

END

John Hathaway points out correctly that the gold mergers that we are experiencing is due to lack of discoveries..much to the anger of the bullion banks

(Hathaway/GATA)

 

 

Gold mergers signify lack of discoveries, junior acquisitions likely, Hathaway says

 Section: 

11:10a ET Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway, interviewed by Palisade Radio, says the recent big mergers in the gold-mining industry signify a lack of mine discoveries. He expects acquisitions to continue among smaller gold-mining companies, whose valuations he considers unusually low. The interview is 13 minutes long and can be heard here:

https://palisaderadio.com/john-hathaway-more-takeovers-to-come-within-th…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Chris Powell explains why GATA is not invited to make presentations in Canada again especially at  Cambridge House International.   Swenson reports on the disappointing attendance at the Vancouver Resource Investment and Chris Powell explains why this was so

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

Why isn’t GATA invited to make presentations in Canada anymore?

 Section: 

4:27p ET Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Financial blogger Don Swenson today reports disappointedly on his attendance at the Vancouver Resource Investment conference a few days ago. In commentary headlined “Digital Currencies, Electronic Trading, Robots, and Algorithms! Repeat!” —

https://kingdomecon.wordpress.com/2019/01/22/digital-currencies-electron…

— Swenson complains that the conference took no notice of the capture of the financial markets by computer program trading and general rigging.

Swenson writes: “My sense is that our major investor education is mostly done by zombies who do not challenge their own thinking. I was really surprised that not one speaker talked about silver and gold rigging and silver and gold price manipulation. They all seemed to assume that rigging was not a problem. GATA did not attend this conference. Speakers like Rob Kirby or Bill Murphy did not speak. Nothing was said with regard to why silver prices are rigged, controlled, and suppressed. Not one speaker spoke about the gold price being rigged or manipulated. Why?”

Of course that question is best directed to the management of the conference, Cambridge House International:

https://cambridgehouse.com/

But GATA can offer some background to illuminate the situation a little.

For 15 years GATA was invited to participate and indeed participated vigorously in Cambridge House conferences in Vancouver, Toronto, and Phoenix, and through these conferences we made many friends, gained many followers, and received many contributions. But a few years ago the company changed ownership and its opinion of GATA. We still would like to participate in Cambridge House conferences and indeed a few months ago asked for an invitation to make a presentation in Vancouver, but our request was not even acknowledged.

Of course the new management is entitled to run the company as it wishes. But if, as Swenson writes, markets are being commandeered by program and high-frequency trading and increasingly are rigged and manipulated, that would seem to be of much interest to potential investors as well as to anyone who believes that free and transparent markets are crucial to the continued ascent of mankind.

The problem with these conferences, GATA suspects, is that they no longer want to educate investors (or citizens) but only to sell the shares being touted by their client exhibitors in an environment getting more difficult for resource companies because of government policy to suppress commodity prices.

A month ago GATA sought an invitation to make a presentation at a major U.S.-based financial conference that addresses a full range of investment issues. A representative of the conference this week kindly responded to your secretary/treasurer but explained that nobody speaks at the conference without paying around $7,000 for a booth, which also purchases 45 minutes of speaking time.

As a nonprofit organization aiming to expose the largely surreptitious and dishonest policies of government, GATA can’t afford such “pay to play.” It’s all we can do to cover our own travel expenses for chances to be heard.

It’s easy to understand why some people touting shares in the resource industry think GATA is bad for business. We alert investors to what they’re up against from government — the secret interventions and market rigging, of which we have compiled extensive and contemporaneous documentation:

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

But we also note that these interventions have essentially created a vast and uncoverable short position in resources, especially the monetary metals, and that these short positions have exploded before, as with the London Gold Pool in 1968 —

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Gold_Pool

— and, in 1999, the United Kingdom’s sale of half its gold reserves and the Washington Agreement on Gold, events that began the gradual unwinding of central bank gold leasing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sale_of_UK_gold_reserves,_1999%E2%80%93200…

https://www.gold.org/what-we-do/official-institutions/central-bank-gold-…

These short positions can be exploded again — if investors or governments defecting from gold price suppression policy avoid monetary metals derivatives and vault their metals outside the bullion banking system that, creating these derivatives, creates enormous imaginary supply.

Since even experts who have only contempt for GATA estimate the ratio of imaginary gold to real metal as approaching 100 to 1, the potential for monetary metals prices is not so hard to see.

Will that potential ever be realized? Will free and transparent markets in the monetary metals ever be established? Will accountable and limited government ever be restored?

GATA predicts only that the day of deliverance will not be hastened by financial conferences that favor stock share touting to the exclusion of education and potential controversy.

Of course the day of deliverance is always a long shot. But if you’d like to bet on hastening it, please consider supporting GATA with a contribution via our donation page here:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

While we have been shut out of Canada lately, your secretary/treasurer has just been invited to speak again at two financial conferences in Asia and to appear on network television there and so should raise some money for travel and lodging. We aim to be heard wherever we can be.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END





iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

Countries continue to stockpile gold.
(courtesy Lawrence Thomas/GoldTelegraph.com)

Countries Are Beginning To Stockpile Gold

Authored by Lawrence Thomas via GoldTelegraph.com,

The Bank of China had increased its gold reserves from 1842.6 tons to 1,852 tons in December 2018. This increase represents the first major purchase of gold by the Bank of China since 2016. And there appears to be a purpose for the renewed interest in gold.

While the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has attempted to keep gold prices low in an effort to preserve world dominance of the U.S. dollar, other countries have taken advantage by accumulating more precious metal at bargain prices.

China isn’t the only country bullish on gold. For the first time in years, both Poland and Hungary have amassed gold in 2018, and other central banks are following suit.

Many global central banks have been hoarding gold for more than a decade. Prior to the abandonment of the gold standard, this was common practice. The Federal Reserve or the Bank of England and other central banks were in the business of buying and selling gold and adding to their reserves. Gold was directly connected to the value of a currency. Many countries tied their currency to the value of the U.S. dollar.

Under President Nixon, the gold standard ceased to exist in 1971. The value of global currency quickly became arbitrary, depending what a country’s central bank said it was worth. Countries began to sell off their gold and continued to do so up to the 2007 financial crisis. This turned the selling tide around as central banks once again slowly began to buy gold. The main reason for gold’s renewed popularity is that many countries want to escape the dominance of the U.S. dollar, which has been the leading global currency. Russia is actively attempting to divert its own economy from the U.S. economy (or dollar). The more gold countries such as China and Russia hold, the greater the threat to the U.S. dollar.

Russia has been adding to its gold reserves since 2005. During the first half of this year, Russia purchased 3.381 million ounces of gold. Turkey added 1.223 million ounces to its reserves. Both countries have broken their previous gold-buying record. With global relationships becoming murky, and trade wars as a real possibility, many central banks will likely continue to covet precious gold. This is quite a change from two decades ago when central banks were eager to rid themselves of gold. Now, they can’t buy enough of it. (Harvey: most of the gold “purchased” by the Central Bank of Russia came from mining operations inside Russia)

The Federal Reserve, in its effort to boost the U.S. dollar, has deliberately kept the price of gold at artificial bargain levels. China, Russia, and other countries are taking advantage of the Federal Reserve’s policy by buying gold on the cheap. Global gold purchases in the first quarter of 2018 rose 42 percent from the prior year or $5 billion worth of the precious metal. This is an increase of 22 percent for the same period in 2017. Other central banks have been amassing gold at a far greater rate than the Federal Reserve, leaving it in a very precarious position as the U.S. dollar faces an increasing threat. Russia alone now has a gold reserve in excess of $78 billion, or 2,036 tons, making it one of the top gold-holding countries in the world. Only the U.S. has more reserve gold, 8,133 tons. China and Turkey are closing the gold reserve gap at a rapid rate. All three countries have also sold off large amounts of their U.S. national debts in 2018, limiting their exposure to the U.S. dollar.

The world is edging toward increasing instability and possibly financial chaos. U.S. investors are already divesting themselves of portions of their stock portfolio in preparation of potential losses.

In addition, some of President’s Trump’s policies, such as the aluminum and steel tariffs, has affected international trade. China has decreased its purchasing of products such as soybeans, weakening the price of soy and the income of American farmers.

Another area of concern is the Federal Reserve’s rise in interest rates. These interest hikes have increased the value of the U.S. dollar, but have increased the debt value of many emerging markets. This could lead to another monetary crisis in these emerging countries, who will have a harder time repaying their dollar debts, let alone the interest thereon.

Russia and China, but especially China, has been dumping U.S. debts onto the world market instead of buying more U.S. bonds. With the U.S. deficit at an all-time high, it is being deprived of critical income sources. Added to the recent tax cuts implemented by President Trump, the U.S. will be struggling to meet its social security and Medicare obligation in the years to come, and these will amount to trillions of dollars. Just when the U.S. needs revenues to most, it is losing crucial income from foreign bond purchases. It is likely that President Trump’s tariff strategy is forcing countries like China to act against the interest of the U.S. They are trying to get President Trump’s attention. By creating a shortage of U.S. dollars, the ripple effect will be global and severe.

A real crisis will occur when the Federal Reserve starts printing unlimited fiat dollars to pay off its debts, which will bring about unwanted inflation. It appears that as China and other countries are buying up gold to devalue the U.S. dollar, they know exactly what they are doing.

 

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.7933/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8019   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 10.69 PTS OR 0.41%

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 112.78 POINTS OR 0.42%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 19.09  POINTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.37/Euro FALLS TO 1.1349

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.66/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 52.28 and Brent: 60.47

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.20%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.68% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.25%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.48: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.21

3k Gold at $1278.90 silver at:15.28   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 14/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.94

3m oil into the 52 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.75 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9947 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1289 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.20%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.72% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.04%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.2824

 

Stocks Ignore European PMI Collapse, Rise On Tech Rally

European and Asian stocks rose and US equity futures were flat, as a rally in European tech shares lifted trader mood ahead of today’s ECB meeting and the latest round of US-China trade talks, even as the latest round of collapsing European PMIs was roundly ignored. The dollar climbed and Treasury yields dropped.

European tech giant STMicro rose as much as 8.4%, lifting the Stoxx 600 Technology Index to a 7-week high after investors brushed aside the chipmaker’s lower-than-expected quarterly sales forecast, focusing on better margins, expected recovery and positive indications from peers in U.S. and Asia. Increases in software and chipmaker shares pulled the Stoxx Europe 600 index higher, which shrugged off weaker euro area PMIs, trading 0.6% higher, and hovering near session peak. Technology, autos and banks lead the gains. The FTSE MIB (+1.2%) outperformed its peers bolstered by strong performance in banking names after Italian PM Conte said the Italian banking system is well capitalised and stable; with markets also looking out for any potential signals from the ECB on TLTROs.

European equity strength was somewhat puzzling as it came on the day the Germany Manufacturing PMI missed badly, printing 49.9, below the 51.3 expected, the lowest print since November 2014 and in contraction for the first time in 5 years…

while French Service PMI tumbled to 47.5, far below the 50.5 expected, the lowest since February 2014.

The sudden plunge in Eurozone manufacturing and services sentiment suggests that the ECB will likely have to further trim its optimism for a rebound, if not turn outright dovish, a move which could send the Euro tumbling even more (it last traded at 1.1346, the lowest level since the start of the year).

Earlier in the session, Asia’s main stock markets all posted modest gains although trade was far from smooth sailing in Asia-Pac and upside in the other US majors were also capped amid ongoing shutdown concerns and trade uncertainty. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) were mixed throughout the majority of the session as corporate updates dictated price action and in which energy names kept Australia afloat after Santos reported an increase in Q4 output and revenue, while Japanese exporters lacked unison amid an indecisive currency. Hang Seng (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.4%) were initially lacklustre amid ongoing trade uncertainty and following another substantial daily liquidity drain by the PBoC of CNY 250bln, but then gradually improved as money market rates declined ahead of the 2nd phase of the PBoC’s 100bps RRR taking effect tomorrow.

Meanwhile in the US, S&P 500 index futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq +0.4% as investors continue to operate with few signals on China trade talks and in a drought of data on the U.S. economy thanks to the longest ever government shutdown. The tit-for-tat battle between President Donald Trump and Democrat leader Nancy Pelosi appears to be escalating. A vote on reopening agencies is set for Thursday.

At the same time, downbeat comments continue to emanate from the annual conclave of global movers and shakers in Davos: “Earnings expectations particularly in the U.S. are too high,” said Bridgewater co-CIO Greg Jensen in an interview on Bloomberg TV Wednesday from Davos. “And generally the Fed and other policy makers are still expecting stronger growth than we see.”

In rates, European bonds bull flattened with peripherals leading the way. Ten-year BTPs and bonos outperform bunds by 5bps and 4bps respectively, while across the Atlantic, TSY yields were flat to 1bp lower across 2s through 10s, slight flattening bias.

In FX, the euro dropped before the ECB policy decision due out in less than an hour, weighed down by the abovementioned soft PMI data out of the euro area amid a broad recovery for the greenback during the London session. The Bloomberg dollar spot index recovered from an early loss as traders awaited fresh developments from U.S.-China trade talks; the greenback rallied against the euro in London hours to 1.1339, nearing a three-week high, after an expected rebound in French activity in January failed to materialize; composite PMI dropped to 47.9, the lowest in more than four years; Treasuries edged higher, underperforming European peers. The Aussie was the worst performing major, and hit a three-week low after National Bank of Australia, one of the big four banks, raised mortgage rates prompting concerns the central bank may have to ease policy; the AUD rallied earlier on better-than-expected employment data. Sterling dropped on profit-taking and the Norwegian krone rose after the central bank reiterated its outlook for gradual interest-rate increases.

In commodities, Brent (-0.4%) and WTI (-0.1%) pared back some of the downside seen after yesterday’s unexpected API crude stocks build of +6.55mln vs. Exp -0.4mln; with markets now looking to today’s EIA release. Separately, US President Trump has stated that oil sanctions could be imposed this week on Venezuela if the political situation deteriorates further.

Expected data include jobless claims and PMIs. American Airlines, Bristol-Myers, Union Pacific, Intel and Starbucks are among many companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,642.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 356.24
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 152.67
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 496.32
  • Nikkei down 0.09% to 20,574.63
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,552.60
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 27,120.98
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,591.69
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 36,142.78
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,865.69
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,145.03
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.211%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1343
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 2.394%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.2 bps to 1.281%
  • Brent futures little changed at $61.12/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,279.91
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 96.38

Top Overnight News

  • President Trump tweets that he will give State of the Union address when the partial government shutdown is over
  • While headline oil futures barely moved on the back of a deepening crisis in Venezuela, the price of barrels that more closely mirror the Latin American country’s supplies surged to a fresh five-year high on Wednesday relative to WTI
  • Venezuelan bond prices climbed for a fourth day as anti-government protests throughout the country spurred speculation that President Nicolas Maduro’s regime could be coming closer to an end
  • The Swiss National Bank intends to keep interest rates at a record low and can even reduce them further if the political risks dominating the outlook explode into a bigger crisis, President Thomas Jordan said
  • Malaysia’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday, as expected, giving little indication on whether it sees room to ease policy amid subdued inflation and weak economic growth
  • Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd., the flagship investment firm of a 186-year-old conglomerate, plunged 83 percent, wiping out as much as $41 billion in market value, before quickly recovering, with traders speculating that a fat finger error may have caused the dramatic drop

Most Asian bourses eventually followed suit to the gains stateside where the DJIA led the majors higher on better than expected earnings from several of its components, although trade was far from smooth sailing in the Asia-Pac region and upside in the other US majors were also capped amid ongoing shutdown concerns and trade uncertainty. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) were mixed throughout the majority of the session as corporate updates dictated price action and in which energy names kept Australia afloat after Santos reported an increase in Q4 output and revenue, while Japanese exporters lacked unison amid an indecisive currency. Hang Seng (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.4%) were initially lacklustre amid ongoing trade uncertainty and following another substantial daily liquidity drain by the PBoC of CNY 250bln, but then gradually improved as money market rates declined ahead of the 2nd phase of the PBoC’s 100bps RRR taking effect tomorrow. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with price moves contained by the indecision across riskier assets throughout the sessions and amid mixed results at this month’s 20yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Bank Indonesia Governor Says Rate Near Peak, No Cut Seen Yet
  • Anbang Is Said to Near First Domestic Disposal as Empire Unwinds
  • Hainan Airlines Is Said to Signal Plans to Sell Dollar Bonds
  • Kuwait Finance Said to Offer 35% Premium in $8 Billion Deal

Major European equities are in the green [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%]. The FTSE MIB (+1.2%) is outperforming its peers bolstered by strong performance in banking names after Italian PM Conte said the Italian banking system is well capitalised and stable; with markets also looking out for any potential signals from the ECB on TLTROs. Sectors are mixed, with outperformance in tech names following STMicroelectronics (+8.8%) earnings release; other tech names such as Infineon (+4.9%) are up in sympathy. Other notable movers include, Novozymes (-3.5%) who are at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after missing on Q4 sales.

Top European News

  • French Economy Stays on Downward Trend at Start of 2019
  • Norway Flags Risk to Outlook as Tightening Plan Kept in Place
  • SNB to Keep Negative Interest Rate for Some Time, Jordan Says
  • STMicro Sees Past IPhone Jitters With Back-to-Growth Forecast

In FX, the DXY is back on an upward trajectory follow the prior session’s declines in which the index tested 96.000 to the downside at one point. In early EU trade, DXY gained more ground above psychological level and currently resides near intraday highs of 96.400 with upside exacerbated by the release of overall downbeat EZ PMIs. In terms of technicals, the index has breached its 100 DMA to the upside at 96.100 and sees its 200 DMA around 96.550.

  • AUD – The marked underperformer amid the release of Australian jobs numbers, where the Aussie initial felt support as headline employment change and the unemployment rate were better-than-expected, thought gains were pared as the growth in employment was mostly fuelled by part-time jobs which coincided with the decline in participation rates. Additionally, reports of NAB hiking mortgage rates exacerbated downside in the AUD as some suggest this could aid the RBA to push back a rate hike, especially given the decline in house prices, subsequently, interest rate futures are pricing a 60% chance of a rate cut by December 2019. As such AUD/USD lost more ground below its 100 DMA at 0.7171 to levels below 0.7100 vs. a high of 0.7166. Furthermore, HSBC sees AUD/USD declining to 0.6600 this year and Rabobank sees the pair at 0.6800 citing ‘doom loop’ of debt which threatens to weigh heavily on the currency.
  • NOK – A firmer Crown in the aftermath of a hawkish Norges interest rate decision in which the CB left its key policy rate unchanged as expected. Focus was more on whether a rate hike will be pushed further into H1 given the recent decline in oil, which the Central Bank left unchanged. Norges also noted that the domestic economic growth and labour market development appear to be broadly in-line with forecasts while inflation has been slightly above expectations. Subsequently, EUR/NOK fell through the 9.7500 to a low print of 9.7130 (vs high of 9.7600) and currency hovers closer to the bottom of the intraday band.
  • EUR, GBP– The EUR is ultimately on the backfoot as dismal French PMIs triggered the decline in the single currency in which the composite output pointed to the quickest contraction in the French private sector output for over four years, according the IHS. Meanwhile, Germany’s manufacturing PMI fell into contractionary territory and to a 50-month low while the manufacturing output index slid to a 69-month low. In terms of the Eurozone, ING highlights that the below-forecast metrics indicates Q1 is off a disappointing start, heavily influence by France. Furthermore, IHS Markit’s Chief Economist notes “The disappointing survey data indicate that [Eurozone] GDP is rising at a quarterly rate of just 0.1%.” As such, EUR/USD fell further below its 200 DMA at 1.1384 to test the intraday low 1.1330 to the downside before stabilising just above its LOD ahead of the ECB interest rate decision later where focus will be on the EZ growth outlook (full preview available in the Research Suite). In terms of option expiries, a sizeable EUR 2.2bln are scatter at strike 1.1395-1.1405. Meanwhile, Sterling is largely side-lined following days of gains as the ECB decision comes into focus, Cable is heavily dictated by dollar action as the pair resides near intraday lows below 1.3050 (vs high of 1.3094)

In commodities, Brent (-0.4%) and WTI (-0.1%) have pared back some of the downside seen after yesterday’s unexpected API crude stocks build of +6.55mln vs. Exp -0.4mln; with markets now looking to today’s EIA release. According to reports several Libyan oil ports are closed due to poor weather. Separately, US President Trump has stated that oil sanctions could be imposed this week on Venezuela if the political situation deteriorates further. Gold (-0.2%) has been subdued due to the improved risk tone following updates to the US-China trade front. Recent news flow has seen China’s commerce ministry stating that Vice Premier Lie He will travel to the US on January 30th; adding that the US and China are to have an in-depth negotiation on economic and trade issues. Elsewhere, Anglo America have reported Q4 copper production of 184Kt vs. Prev. 149KT, a 5-year high; Co’s CEO stating this is largely due to efficiency and productivity improvements.

In terms of the day ahead, the ECB meeting should be the main focus for markets today. We’ll also get the PMIs in the US  alongside the latest weekly initial jobless claims print (expected to tick up modestly to 218k), December leading index (-0.1% mom expected) and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index print for January (expected to hold at +3). Meanwhile, we’ll also get the EIA’s 2019 energy outlook while the earnings highlights today include Intel and Starbucks.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 218,000, prior 213,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.73m, prior 1.74m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 58.1
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53.5, prior 53.8
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 54, prior 54.4
  • 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 54.4
  • 10am: Leading Index, est. -0.1%, prior 0.2%
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 2.5, prior 3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The main themes of Davos this year are the future of Globalisation and of work in a robotics age. I presented on the former yesterday and on the latter this morning. To be honest, globalisation to me is being able to walk between sessions in the snow-draped highest city in Europe and still being able to listen to England play cricket in the blistering heat in Barbados using a cheap roaming 4G contract. I will fight hard to protect globalisation in that form. Talking of roaming, I ventured around the whole conference area yesterday and the most scary thing was seeing various snipers on the roof between all the venues. Security is high but I suspect it would have been even higher if the likes of Trump hadn’t cancelled.

It was a busy day in Davos around me, with speeches from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan, among many other public officials and private investors. Most speakers highlighted the need to defend globalisation, free markets, and multi-lateral institutions, so the highlight might have been the voice of dissent from Italian Prime Minister Conte. He said that EU budget rules have resulted in higher public debt, by slowing economic growth, and predicted GDP growth of 1.5% this year. For context, DB economists and the private consensus both predict 0.7% GDP growth. My thoughts in my presentation was that globalisation has been in aggregate a force for good, especially via a big drop in global poverty over the last 40 years. However, redistribution remains as big a problem as ever and unless policy makers act soon, a worse system in aggregate may win out via populism. The redistribution argument extents to intra-Europe as well. Can the European project survive with Germany running a near 2% budget surplus while the likes of Italy continue to be squeezed – notwithstanding the recent budget increases. Clearly Germany has every right to be fiscally prudent but is it the best way of ensuring Europe’s long-term stability? Probably too big a question for 5am on a cold morning.

The Davos population will likely be tuned into their phones and screens this morning in what is a bit a blockbuster few hours ahead, with the January flash PMIs due out first of all, followed by the ECB at lunchtime. Just on the PMIs, they will be released at 8.15am GMT for France, 8.30am GMT for Germany and 9.00am GMT for the Euro Area this morning. As we discussed on Monday, the Eurozone and German manufacturing PMIs have both been sequentially down 11 months out of the last 12. European equity and credit markets remain cheap to PMIs but the problem over the last year is that PMIs haven’t stabilized, so equities haven’t yet found a decent base.

Consensus thinks we might see some stability today though, with the composite Euro Area reading actually expected to tick up slightly to 51.4 from 51.1 primarily due to the services reading edging up 0.3pts to 51.5. The manufacturing print is expected to hold steady at 51.4, which, as a reminder, was the lowest reading since February 2016. For France, the consensus is for a slight tick back up to 50.0 (from 49.7) for the manufacturing reading and a sharper move higher for the services reading to 50.5 (from 49.0). If the extent of the decline for France last month was related to the ‘yellow vests’ protests then the risk might be for a bigger bounce-back in the France data. In Germany, the consensus is for no change in the manufacturing reading at 51.5 and a 0.3pt increase in the services reading to 52.1.

As for the ECB at lunchtime, we noted in yesterday’s EMR that our economists believe that there are three key questions facing Draghi and the Council. The first is: have the balance of risks tilted to the downside? Our team believes they have. The second is: will the ECB commit to replacing TLTRO2? Our team believes that there will be a replacement to avoid a potentially disorderly deleveraging, with confirmation by the March meeting at the latest. The third question is: is there a consensus building around a technical or one-off depo rate hike to support the banking system? Although Draghi has hinted at such, the minutes lacked any evidence that the Council is discussing the idea. But that’s not to say that the topic won’t be brought up again in the Q&A. As a related stat, amazingly there’s still $8.3tn of negative yielding debt swimming around in the world, which is actually a 46% increase compared to October’s levels.

Negative yields and deposit rates don’t help banks and this has become a bigger and bigger talking point now that there’s doubt as to whether the ECB can even raise rates this cycle at all. Our economists have written two notes looking at the structural impact of negative rates on banks over the last week. The first looked at the cost of the interest rate cycle through the lens of net interest income across sectors of the economy and across countries. They found that in cash terms, the net interest income of financial corps was no worse at the end of the last monetary cycle in 2008 than at the start in 2002. However, the current cycle is very different with the net interest income of financial corps deteriorating by almost four times versus the previous cycle. The second note looked at the benefits of a sustainable banking system in the Euro Area and the drivers of profitability. The team conclude that the ECB has good reason to care about the structural profitability of the banking system and inability to reach such would come with significant economic and financial risks, and transmission of policy. They also find that it is full normalisation of monetary policy rather than the removal of the negative depo rate that will benefit banks most, and this requires a sustained economic recovery. It’s also worth flagging the view from our rates strategists who believe that the ECB should consider a tiered reserves system, similar to that in Japan and Switzerland.

Plenty to consider then. Markets overnight are going into the meeting with modest gains for the most part in what’s been a fairly quiet session for newsflow. The Hang Seng (+0.14%), Shanghai Comp (+0.51%) and Kospi (+0.51%) are all up however the Nikkei (-0.26%) is still lagging behind after most markets started on the back foot. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI for January didn’t help, dropping 2.6pts to 50.0 and to the lowest since August 2016. Futures in the US are broadly flat along with EM FX.

This follows a bit of a lacklustre session yesterday where risk assets bounced between gains and losses before ultimately closing close to flat on the day. The S&P 500 opened as much as +0.76% higher, dropped to -0.75% around lunchtime, and closed +0.22%. The DOW and NASDAQ posted similar roundtrips, ultimately ending the session +0.70% and +0.08% respectively. The VIX also jumped above 22 for the first time in two weeks but subsequently fell to end the session -1.28pts lower at 19.52. US HY credit opened -4.3bps tighter but partially retraced to close -0.7bps.

Sentiment had been boosted by better-than-expected earnings reports from the likes of Procter & Gamble, United Technologies and IBM. Each company raised their guidance for Q1 or FY 2019, pointing to increased confidence in the economic backdrop. Overall, S&P 500 earnings are running +14.2% higher yoy so far. However, a turn in the oil price (WTI closing -2.29%) along with little sign of progress on the government shutdown saga appeared to be the catalyst to turn sentiment from the highs. Early in the day the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers Kevin Hassett had even said that the US economy could see growth in Q1 of “very close to zero” should the government shutdown extend for the whole quarter. He did, however, also add that growth could rebound to “4 or 5 percent” in Q2 if the government reopens.

Just on the shutdown, the Senate is set to vote on two bills today: a Republican proposal modelled on President Trump’s weekend offer, which would reopen the government and include wall funding, and a Democratic proposal, which would reopen the government with no wall funding. Neither bill appears likely to receive the requisite 60 votes. The House has already passed the Democrats’ bill and, while some senior Democrats expressed a willingness to raise border control spending, they still refuse to contemplate any wall funding. So the two sides are still entrenched, and acrimony is increasing after President Trump sent Speaker Pelosi a letter yesterday, insisting that he would still deliver his State of the Union address on January 29. Pelosi responded by insisting that he is not invited to speak to Congress until the government is reopened.

Meanwhile, here in the UK the prospect of Labour supporting a backbench plan for legislation to delay Article 50 should a deal not be agreed before February 26th (Cooper-Boles amendment) helped Sterling climb +0.89% yesterday and close above $1.30 for the first time since November 8th. Germany’s Economy Minister Altmaier also said he “would not mind” if the UK needed more time to clarify its position, though France’s EU Minister said that such an extension would be “technically feasible, although it is not simple”. Gilts were flat despite the bigger move for Sterling while the FTSE 100 (-0.85%) underperformed other European markets with the STOXX 600 closing -0.06%. Bond markets continue to be a relative sideshow for now with Treasuries just +0.2bps higher, which means that the range since January 8th, on an intraday basis, is still just 14bps.

The relatively benign moves for Treasuries partly reflects the data where the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for January printed in line at -2, and thus improving on the -8 level seen in December. Following notable deterioration in December, the regional Fed surveys so far in January have been a bit more mixed with the Richmond Fed and Philly Fed improving, but the Empire Fed dropping notably. We’ll get the manufacturing PMI today along with the Kansas Fed survey, which should help to further shape ISM expectations for this month. In Europe, France’s INSEE Manufacturing Sentiment Index fell 1 point to 103, which was as expected but nevertheless could point to some stabilization in conditions this month. For the Eurozone aggregate, January consumer confidence fell to -7.9 and December’s print was revised lower, though the results may been affected by a new methodology in the calculation.

In terms of the day ahead, as highlighted at the top the flash, January manufacturing PMIs and the ECB meeting around lunchtime should be the main focus for markets today. We’ll also get the PMIs in the US this afternoon, alongside the latest weekly initial jobless claims print (expected to tick up modestly to 218k), December leading index (-0.1% mom expected) and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index print for January (expected to hold at +3). Meanwhile, we’ll also get the EIA’s 2019 energy outlook while the earnings highlights today include Intel and Starbucks.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.69 PTS OR 0.41% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 112.78 POINTS OR 0.42% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 19.09  PTS OR 0.09%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.37%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7933 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 52.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED /GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7933 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8019: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

 

i)North Korea//USA/Sweden

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

i)CHINA/USA

China blocks the only foreign search engine, Microsoft’s Bing.  I have no idea what Kudlow was thinking but there is not a chance of a trade agreement with the USA

(zerohedge)

China Blocks Microsoft’s Bing Search Engine

As Google backs away from plans to introduce a re-engineered search engine to the Chinese market after provoking a chorus of scrutiny from lawmakers and its own employees, the Chinese government has abruptly blocked Microsoft’s Bing from the Chinese Internet. The decision removes the only major foreign search engine left in China, according to the Financial Times. It makes Microsoft the latest US tech firm to be ousted from China since the Whatsapp messaging app was blocked in 2017.

While the website cn.bing.com couldn’t be accessed from the mainland, the state remained accessible outside China.

The FT noted that the ban comes amid rumors that trade talks between the US and China are deteriorating (though China on Thursday backed up Larry Kudlow’s claims that the talks were progressing as expected).

Bing

State-owned telecom China Unicom has confirmed the order came from within the government, which said it had spotted “illegal content” on the search engine, though it’s still unclear what triggered the ban because China’s Cyberspace Administration has refused to comment. However, the New York Times pointed out that the ban followed a viral social media post by former journalist Fang Kecheng, who accused dominant Chinese search engine Baidu – which sops up 70% of China’s search traffic – of favoring its own products in its search results. The viral post is believed to have driven more traffic to Bing.

Microsoft confirmed that Bing is “currently inaccessible” in China but didn’t say whether this is a temporary or permanent ban.

“We’ve confirmed that Bing is currently inaccessible in China and are engaged to determine next steps,” Microsoft said in a statement.

The Communist Party’s seemingly arbitrary decision to bar Bing comes after Microsoft’s yearslong efforts to ingratiate itself with the Chinese leadership. As NYT reporter Paul Mozur explained in a twitter thread, Microsoft has repeatedly bent over backwards to accommodate China, including tolerating the widespread piracy of its products, only for its search engine to be abruptly blocked from the country’s Internet.

Paul Mozur

@paulmozur

In a new new for China, Beijing censors censored search engine. The block of Microsoft’s Bing comes after a viral WeChat post by a well-known former journalist attacked the quality of Baidu’s search engine and likely pushed traffic to Bing. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/23/business/china-microsoft-bing.html 

Harry Shum, Microsoft’s executive vice president for artificial intelligence and research, speaking in San Francisco in 2017. Microsoft has long conducted research in China, including in artificial intelligence.

China Appears to Block Microsoft’s Bing, Despite Company’s Own Censorship

A block, if permanent, would signal that foreign companies can do little to get in Beijing’s good graces as it tightens its grip on online content.

nytimes.com

Paul Mozur

@paulmozur

It’s worth a moment to mull the long suffering of Microsoft and the mixed results of its long term engagement of China’s government.

Paul Mozur

@paulmozur

Its R&D center trained a number of the country’s most important AI entrepreneurs. It formed jv’s with local companies to sell its cloud. To allay security concerns it showed source code. It even hosted a Xi Jinping tech exec confab that sorta was set up to show up politicos in DC

Paul Mozur

@paulmozur

The company’s software is massively pirated in China, by companies+government ministries+universities. While China is one of its largest markets by users, revenue has lagged. Ballmer once noted China earned about 5% the revenue of the US even tho PC usage was about the same.

Paul Mozur

@paulmozur

When Microsoft pulled support for an old version of Windows to encourage a switch to newer versions (which were harder to pirate), Chinese authorities raided their offices and hit them with an anti-trust inquiry. Beijing was worried about its over reliance on a foreign product.

Paul Mozur

@paulmozur

When Microsoft pulled support for an old version of Windows to encourage a switch to newer versions (which were harder to pirate), Chinese authorities raided their offices and hit them with an anti-trust inquiry. Beijing was worried about its over reliance on a foreign product.

Paul Mozur

@paulmozur

To bullet proof Windows 10 against China government concerns, Microsoft partnered with CETC, a state-run firm that sells electronics to China’s military and is a huge supplier of equipment for the Xinjiang surveillance apparatus. It got approval, yet now Bing is down.

Paul Mozur

@paulmozur

Fang Kecheng, the former journalist had this to say: “Bing compromised in order to have a Chinese version to get into the country. It would be pathetic if even this can’t exit. We have one less alternative.”

Paul Mozur

@paulmozur

Interestingly Fang was conflicted about a Google censored search: I feel people in the West say…they are against Google coming back, as they have nothing to do with China. But as someone who wishes Chinese can get better-quality information, I can’t 100% stand against it.

As Fang told the NYT, Bing compromised and decided to acquiesce to China’s censorship needs to avoid a fate similar to Google’s (which pulled out of China in 2010) .

“Bing compromised in order to have a Chinese version to get into the country,” said Mr. Fang, a doctoral candidate at the Annenberg School for Communication at University of Pennsylvania. “It would be pathetic if even this can’t exist. We have one less alternative.”

But given the homogeneity of the Chinese Internet ecosystem, Bing’s presence – even if it self-censored search results – was still a net benefit for China’s consumers, Fang said.

“I feel people in the West can say from their point of view that they are totally against Google coming back, as they have nothing to do with China,” he said. “But as someone who truly wishes that Chinese are able to get better-quality information, I can’t 100 percent stand against it.”

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Metro bank, a mid tear British bank with 66 outlets crashes to record low after mismarking its loan book

(courtesy zerohedge)

UK Bank Crashes To Record Low After Mismarking Loan Book

Shares in one of the UK’s so-called challenger banks have collapsed 35% today to a new record low after being forced to admit that it failed to have enough capital backing some commercial loans because of what it calls an accounting error.

Bloomberg reports that Metro Bank Plc fell the most since going public after applying an incorrectly-low risk-weighting to parts of its loan book, with the British lender’s chief saying he doesn’t know how long the mortgages in question had been wrongly classified.

The bank, which has expanded rapidly to 66 branches since launching in 2010, also issued a profit warning,saying its full-year profits and capital levels would be weaker than expected after a “soft” end to the year with CEO Craig Donaldson blaming the warning on intense competition in the mortgage market.

“It was a misinterpretation of the rules,” and the misclassification dates back through 2018 at least, Craig Donaldson, Metro Bank’s chief executive officer, said by phone.

“We are putting it right,” he said, calling it an “isolated incident” that didn’t affect the bank’s earnings. He said the bank has been in communication with Britain’s Prudential Regulation Authority.

Bloomberg explains that the bank previously put a 50 percent risk weighting on its commercial mortgages, but said it has now increased this to the correct level of 100 percent, a spokesperson for the lender said. For buy-to-let mortgages, the portfolio had been held at a risk weighting of 35 percent, but this has also been increased to 100 percent.

However, this is not a total surprise to many, as The FT reports, investors have long been divided over the merits of Metro’s business model and its controversial chairman Vernon Hill. Mr Hill has been criticised for corporate governance issues including paying tens of millions of pounds to a company owned by his wife. But he has maintained the support of a loyal coterie of US-based investors, many of whom backed his previous venture Commerce Bancorp.

Nevertheless, Metro is down 35% today on massive volume – a new record low.

Gary Greenwood, analyst at Shore Capital, said:

“For a fast-growing business like Metro Bank, where capital constraints are a concern, to warn on both momentum and capital intensity is a real ‘no-no’. It is no surprise therefore that the shares are down so sharply.”

Challenger banks are small, recently-created retail banks in the United Kingdom that compete with the longer-established banks in the country, sometimes by specialising in areas underserved by the “big four” banks. The banks distinguish themselves from the historic banks by modern information technology practices, such as online-only operations, that avoid the costs and complexities of traditional banking. In case you were worried about whether Metro’s “error” was more systemic, here are the rest of the ‘challenger’ banks… Aldermore, Atom Bank, Monzo, N26, OakNorth, Starling Bank, Tandem, Tesco Bank, and Virgin Money.

Among the beneficiaries of Metro Bank’s exposure as a cheating bank was none other than Crispin Odey whose fund made about 19 million pounds ($25 million) Wednesday on its short position. As Bloomberg reports, the London-based asset manager increased its bet against the company as recently as Jan. 16 and has shorts worth about $75 million or 2.7 percent of the company’s shares, making it the biggest short-seller of the bank.

Odey’s firm disclosed Metro Bank in its short book in March last year, saying that the bank “has still not grown loans fast enough to keep pace with costs,” and raising concerns over the profitability of its business. He did not immediately respond to a call requesting comment.

The question we should all be asking is a simple one – how did Metro manage to lie to regulators (or perhaps more charitably, how did regulators not spot this?) for so long? Those butterflies you feel in the pit of your stomach are warranted as the awful sense of deja vu all over again rears its ugly head since we all know what happened the last time banks started to get busted for “misclassifying” risk-weighted assets on their books…

Remember, “fortress balance sheets.”

end
Our resident expert, Tom Luong(, on European affairs and Brexit) weighs in on the BREXIT situation and claims that it is the Remainders who are worried.
(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Panic Time For Remainers Over Brexit

Authored by Tom Luongo,

The more I follow the details of the Brexit story the more I sense complete panic from the camp that wants to Remain in the European Union.

Next week’s vote for Prime Minister Theresa May’s ‘Plan B’ deal will see a series of amendments voted on to tie  her hands between now and March 29th. These are making the headlines raising the hopes of Remainers and, most especially Wall St., that a “No-Deal’ Brexit will not occur.

The headlines are all Kabuki Theatre.

As I explained in an article for Strategic Culture Foundation the real story is the self-destructive behavior of Remainers. They are sacrificing all their political capital to stop a Brexit the people want (and voted for) with positions they can’t defend in specific terms.

The talking point that is repeated ad nauseum ad infinitum is ‘No-Deal’ would be horrible. It carries the implicit assumption that the people do not know what’s good for them.

But in reality a ‘No-Deal’ is horrible for the very people arguing against it. In politics, everyone is talking their book.

Labour’s Misconceptions

It would be to Labour’s immense political advantage to back ‘No-Deal.’ The time to do that was last fall when details of May’s horrific ‘No-Brexit Brexit’ deal became public. They could have and should have taken the opposite side, championed a harder Brexit.

They would have won the backing of the people and forced May from office.

The fact that Labour is so dead set against Brexit of any meaningful form tells you just how out of touch, corrupt and arrogant they truly are.

But they miscalculated thinking the opinion polls showing them in the lead as a refutation of Brexit, not of the government’s handling of it.

Now they are truly panicking.

So, again, with another amendment backbencher Yvette Cooper is trying to undermine Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn by forcing him to back positions he doesn’t believe in — second referendum, delaying Article 50, etc.

But that’s about all this is worth. Because her amendment, and the five others like it, are simply guide lines.

Like last week’s drama these amendments are nothing more than virtue signaling. From the Guardian:

Amendments are not legally binding but if any of them get majority support there will be considerable pressure on the government to act according to the will of MPs.

All amendments will be subject to the Speaker’s discretion and it is unclear how many he will allow to proceed to a vote.”

But Theresa May has made it very clear on Monday that she could care less about these amendments because the Act which invoked Article 50 comes into effect on March 29th despite the whinging of Remainer MPs.

If anyone is shuffling deck chairs on their personal Titanic it is Remainers who refuse to give up the dream of scuttling Brexit.

Fear and Whinging in Westminster

Remember, Theresa May held snap elections to put everyone on paper affirming their support of the 2016 Brexit referendum and now all of these people are doing Brussels’ work for them undermining it.

May herself is going for the political jugular urging her cabinet and chancellors to vote against these amendments. She is forcing them to openly support a constitutional challenge to her authority.

Authority they just voted to affirm not last week, I might add. This is the right move by her. More cabinet defections at this point would be in her favor.

I think it’s clear at this point that May realizes the stakes here and can only navigate through this by remaining the only major political figure in the U.K. that fully supports the people’s will to honor the referendum and deliver a meaningful Brexit while hanging the event of a ‘No-Deal’ on Parliament.

Even if she doesn’t believe herself that to be the optimal outcome.

That’s why these amendments are panic moves. Project Fear over a hard Brexit has failed. Because waiting in the wings is the kind of political and economic crisis that will shake the foundations of Europe to their core.

The biggest worry from a hard Brexit is the unveiling of the EU’s lack of negotiating power over its member states. Brussels continues to portray invincibility and inevitability but that image is shattered by a ‘No-Deal’ Brexit the entire political class has invested so much in stopping.

*  *  *

Please support the production of independent and alternative political and financial commentary by joining my Patreon and subscribing to the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Investment Newsletter for just $12/month.

end
ECB
Rates are left unchanged and now Draghi speaks:
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

ECB Keeps Policy Unchanged, No Change To Rates “At Least Through Summer”

In the first ECB policy meeting after the central bank concluded its QE program on December 31 (which however has not crippled demand and the bid for Spanish, Italian and Portuguese this January hit an all time high), there were no surprises at least in the official statement, which kept rates unchanged and as before, the central bank said it would keep rates “at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019.” The ECB also reoeated that it will reinvest principal payments from maturing securities “for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.”

As expected, the market barely responded with the EUR unchanged as this statement was a carbon copy of the last ECB announcement.

The press release is below:

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

In 45 minutes is the Draghi press conference where as Deutsche Bank notes, there are three key questions facing Draghi and the Council.

  • have the balance of risks tilted to the downside?(DB believes they have).
  • will the ECB commit to replacing TLTRO2? (DB believes that there will be a replacement to avoid a potentially disorderly deleveraging, with confirmation by the March meeting at the latest).
  • is there a consensus building around a technical or one-off depo rate hike to support the banking system? Although Draghi has hinted at such, the minutes lacked any evidence that the Council is discussing the idea. But that’s not to say that the topic won’t be brought up again in the Q&A.

Watch the press conference live here when it begins at 830am ET.

end

Mark Cudmore of Bloomberg warns that Draghi will send the euro downward as risks surface to the downside

(courtesy Cudmore/Bloomberg)

 

There’s A Good Chance Draghi Sends The Euro Slumping

Authored by Mark Cudmore, Bloomberg markets live commentator

Thursday’s ECB meeting matters more than many financial participants seem to think. It may be subtle, but it’s a binary moment for the region’s policy makers, with the balance of risks skewed toward a euro-bearish outcome.

It’s fair to acknowledge next week’s U.S.-China trade talks are far more immediately relevant to global markets than anything Draghi will do or say today. But that overlooks the fact that it’s crunch time for the ECB and the euro.

It’s now clear that the disappointing European economic data in the first half of 2018 wasn’t just due to temporary factors after all. Far from it, the situation continues to deteriorate. Draghi can’t fudge the issue any longer.

The problems are widespread. Whether or not it avoids a technical recession, Germany’s economic outlook is declining more rapidly than water levels in the Rhine (which was the latest “one-off” excuse for disappointing GDP).

The Gilets Jaune protests have sustained far longer than first anticipated, and so has the associated economic impact on France. The Bank of Italy is warning its economy may have slipped into a fresh recession.

With the currency union’s three largest economies in clear distress, growth outlooks across the bloc are starting to be cut. And I haven’t even mentioned the ongoing Brexit uncertainty which is negatively affecting so many countries. Unsurprisingly, eurozone CPI forecasts are also being slashed – the 2019 consensus is already down to 1.5% from 1.7% at the start of the month.

Neither inflation nor growth look likely to provide justification for any ECB policy tightening over the next 18 months.

If Draghi denies this, he will undermine the euro through a hit to his credibility. If he confronts the elephant in the room, he must then clarify whether policy is set to be normalized regardless of economic data (bullish euro) or whether rate hikes are a pipe dream (bearish euro).

Bloomberg’s Euro Index is at an important inflection point, hovering just above its 18-month lows. The Citi Eco surprise index is at levels seen during recessions.

Draghi’s track record suggests he’ll take the dovish tack today but, either way, the euro will be set on a fresh medium-term trend. It just may not come with dramatic headlines.

end
And on cue:  the Euro tumbles after Draghi states the obvious:  risks have moved to the downside
(courtesy zerohedge)

Euro Tumbles After Draghi Warns Risks “Have Moved” To The Downside

As warned first thing this morning, “There’s A Good Chance Draghi Sends The Euro Slumping“, and sure enough Draghi did just that when during his press conference, the ECB head made a small but material adjustment to his introductory statement as follows:

“The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook have moved to the downside on account of the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors and the threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility”

As a reminder, in Draghi’s last statement, the central banker said “the balance of risks is moving to the downside” confirming not only that the European economy is now on the verge of contraction, but that this chart, showing that the Eurozone is now effectively in a recession…

… has not been lost on the ECB.

In kneejerk response to this confirmation that the Eurozone economy is going from bad to worse, the EURUSD slumped to session lows, dropping as low as 1.1307 as previewed earlier, before rebounding modestly back to 1.1320…

… while Bunds extended gains, with March Bund futures rising 70 ticks to touch a new contract high at 165.27. As for stocks, with European bond curves pancaking once again, the banks slumped, dragging the broader market lower:

  • STOXX BANK INDEX PARES GAINS, TURNS NEGATIVE AS DRAGHI SPEAKS
  • STOXX 600 PARES GAINS, TURNS FLAT AS EURO-ZONE BANKS DROP

So with risks “having moved” to the downside, and the ECB no longer doing QE, what is Draghi’s recommendation?

  • DRAGHI URGES GOVERNMENTS TO RAISE LONGER-TERM GROWTH POTENTIAL

How would they do that? Why by boosting deficit spending and sending their debt surging. Which is great… if only Brussels didn’t recently crucify Italy for trying to do just that.

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Syria/Russia/Turkey/ISIS

The last holdout position inside Syria is Idlib province where ISIS controls its last bit of territory.  Russia and Turkey had an agreement upon which Turkey would head southbound Syria and blow out the last of iSIS.  Moscow is angry as Turkey did not live up to its bargain.  Why?  it is only interested in obliterating the Kurds who are north of Idlib province

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Syria Ceasefire On Brink Of Collapse As Russia Blames Turkey For Terrorist Growth

Four months after Syria and Russia agreed to call off its joint attack on HTS/al-Qaeda held Idlib province, opting amidst US threats to cut a ceasefire deal mediated with Turkey, Moscow now says Ankara has failed to live up to its end of the bargain, which included agreeing to clear Idlib of terrorists and extremist groups. This means a joint Syrian Army-Russia assault on Idlib could again be on the horizon, which was a major source of tension and threats with the United States previously in September.

HTS in Idlib, via Al Jazeera

The collapse of the prior ‘deescalation’ agreement comes at a time when the White House has vowed to stick to the planned US pullout, however, this could be yet a another major development to complicate or delay any possible withdrawal timeline. FT described current Turkish-Russian talks in Moscow as follows:

Russia has accused Turkey of failing to live up to a promise to clear Syria’s Idlib of extremist militant groups and admitted that a landmark ceasefire agreement made last September had failed. Ahead of crunch talks between the leaders of the two countries in Moscow on Wednesday, Russia’s foreign ministry said the Islamist extremist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had “full control” of Syria’s last remaining major opposition stronghold. The damning assessment came four months after Moscow agreed to postpone a planned military assault on the city in exchange for a promise from Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to clear it of militants.

HTS is of course the rebranded coalition dominated by former Nusra Front militants, which is Syrian al-Qaeda. Russia has called the situation “rapidly deterioration” and this week pointed to growing numbers of ceasefire violations and incidents and threats against Russia’s Hmeimim airbase in Syria. Russia’s Foreign Ministry cited that “65 people have been killed and more than 200 injured in more than 1,000 recorded breaches of the agreement,” according to FT. This despite Erdogan previously agreeing to keep militants away from a 15km to 20km deep buffer zone established between HTS and pro-Damascus forces.

Turkey for its part has predictably laid blame on Assad, saying Damascus had for years purposefully facilitated the resettling of al-Qaeda terrorists in the northwest Syrian province. Russian spokesperson Maria Zakharova described that the Idlib ceasefire zone had “essentially been taken under the full control of militants from the al-Nusra alliance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, through the ousting of moderate armed opposition units.”

Last September as Syrian Army forces began to mobilized for a planned major attack on what even the United States has acknowledged as the last major al-Qaeda stronghold in Syria, US officials played the chemical weapons card, warning that if there was so much as an accusation of banned weapons usage on the part of the Syrian-Russian coalition that Washington would intervene. The Turkey deal subsequently took shape when Erdogan and Putin aggreed that a temporary ceasefire between the countries would “avert a major humanitarian crisis” — especially given that some 3 million civilians live amidst al-Qaeda and extremist groups.

Likely hawks within the Trump administration will seize on this now “collapsed” deal, as well as last week’s ISIS suicide attack on a US patrol in Manbij, which killed 4 Americans, to argue the Pentagon must stay the course and maintain a muscular presence in order to prevent any future “massacre” of civilians and fighters in Idlib.

Should Turkish officials depart Moscow without salvaging any part of the ceasefire, and if Syrian Army shelling and preparations for an assault resume, the Syrian proxy war will turn red hot once again, opening the possibility of yet more US intervention, instead of the planned draw down.

END

ISRAEL/SYRIA

Not good:  UN official states any more Israel aggression inside Syria will be met with Syria attacking Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, Israel. If this were to occur, you can bet a full scale war will develop

(courtesy zerohedge)

Syria To “Strike Tel Aviv Airport” Unless UN Does Something About Israeli Aggression

Syria has threatened to strike Israel’s Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv unless the UN Security Council ends years of IDF incursions into Syrian airspace, according to Syria’s UN Ambassador Bashar al-Jaafari.

“Isn’t time now for the UN Security Council to stop the Israeli repeated aggressions on the Syrian Arab Republic territories?” asked al-Jaafari. “Or is it required to draw the attention of the war-makers in this Council by exercising our legitimate right to defend ourself and respond to the Israeli aggression on Damascus International Civil Airport in the same way on Tel Aviv Airport?

Israeli forces conducted several strikes in recent days on alleged Iranian facilities within Syria, including a rare daylight raid on Syria’s international airport south of Damascus, which the Assad government responded ti with a surface-to-surface missile, according to the Times of Israel.

Embedded video

החדשות

@NewsChannelIL

צפו: כיפת ברזל מיירטת רקטה שנורתה לחרמון – מנקודת מבטם של הגולשים | @guyvaron http://bit.ly/2RCQEOd

Israel’s Sunday night attack involved dozens of strikes reportedly from F-16 jets flying over Lebanon targeting locations in and around southern Damascus. Syria’s Pantsir and Buk air defense missile systems reportedly shot down an unknown number of inbound Israeli rockets according to early unconfirmed video.

In total, 21 people were killed in the exchange, including at least 12 members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, according to i24 Newsciting watchdog reports.Israeli air raids in Syria have repeatedly endangered airline flights operating over the region – endangering two civilian aircraft on Christmas day while engaging Syrian targets, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, which added that the IDF F-16s approached as civilian jets were landing at Damascus and Beirut airports.Moscow chimed in on Wednesday as well, calling for Israel to halt what Moscow described as arbitrary air strikes on Syria.

“The practice of arbitrary strikes on the territory of a sovereign state, in this case, we are talking about Syria, should be ruled out,” said Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, responding to a question from Russian news agency TASS about the recent Israeli strikes.

“We should never allow Syria, which has suffered years of armed conflict, to be turned into an arena where geopolitical scores are settled,” she added.

In September, 15 Russian servicemen were killed after Israeli jets used a Russian II-20 recon plane as cover to place it in the path of a Syrian air defense missile.

Syria urged the UN Security Council to put an end to Israeli incursions, as al-Jaafari accused the United States, Britain and France – which hold permanent memberships on the UN body, of condoning Israeli aggression – ignoring their responsibility to “maintain international peace and security in accordance with international law.”

The restoration sovereignty of the occupied Syrian Golan is a permanent right of Syria that [is] not subject to negotiations,” added al-Jaafari.

Israel began occupying the Golan Heights from Syria after the 1967 Six-Day War – refraining from extending sovereignty over the region for more than a decade until the Jewish state annexed the area in 1981. Syria has repeatedly argued that the Golan heights is their territory, and had demanded it back.

Israel disagrees.

“Israel will remain forever on the Golan Heights, and the Golan Heights will forever remain in our hands,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in November.

end

 

RUSSIA/USA/VENEZUELA

Russia warns the USA to stay out the conflict in Venezuela.  This is unusual as the Venezuela is in the sphere of influence of the USA.  The problem of course is the huge amount of money Russia loaned Venezuela.   The USA does not Russia having a big say in the affairs of Venezuela.  Also remember that Citgo is owned by Venezuela

(courtesy zerohedge)

Russia Warns US Intervention In Venezuela Would Have “Catastrophic Consequences”

Russia has dismissed the political crisis engulfing Venezuela as an attempted coup while expressing concern over the role external states and the potential for foreign military intervention, calling Juan Guaido’s move to declare himself president illegal.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday, “We are very concerned by statements that don’t rule out some kind of external intervention,” as cited by Bloomberg“We consider such intervention unacceptable,”Peskov added while describing the internal unrest spilling into the streets after the catalyst of Monday’s failed military revolt of 27 officers in an opposition neighborhood of Caracas an “attempt to usurp power”.

Prior meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on December 5, 2018. Image source: AFP

This follows President Trump’s declaration that the US would only recognize the unelected head of the opposition-held National Assembly as “the President of the Venezuelan National Assembly, Juan Guaido, as the Interim President of Venezuela.” A senior Trump administration official followed by saying “all options are on the table”.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said further in website statement that Washington’s joining a growing list of a bout a dozen other countries to recognize Guaido “is aimed at deepening the split in Venezuelan society, increasing the conflict on the streets, sharply destabilizing the internal political system and further escalation of the conflict.” And in words eerily similar to the brief international exchange of words over prior US action in places like Libya and Syria the ministry said that external armed intervention would be “fraught with catastrophic consequences.”

The foreign ministry further described that the situation “has reached a dangerous point” and called on the international community to engage in diplomacy and mediation between the Maduro government and opposition.

And separately, a senior Russian official on Thursday warned the Trump administration against what he called the “catastrophic scenario” of military intervention in the region.  “We warn against this,” Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said in an interview with International Affairs magazine, as cited in USA Today. “We believe that this would be a catastrophic scenario that would shake the foundations of the development model we see in the Latin American region.”

Wednesday clashes with police, image via Rafael Hernández

In early December of last year President Nicholas Maduro visited Moscow to meet with President Vladimir Putin at a time when tensions with both countries and Washington were soaring. The leaders discussed Russia’s offering to throw cash-strapped Venezuela a multi-billion dollar life-line despite Caracas in the past being unable to pay its debts.  During that trip, Maduro had called Russia a “brother country” with which Venezuela had “raised the flag for the creation of a multipolar and multicentric world.”

This meeting was followed by Russia briefly deploying two nuclear-capable “Blackjack” bombers to Venezuela as part of a joint training exercise meant to underscore the two countries’ growing military relations.

Meanwhile Russia is not the only country to express fear of external meddling and an “illegal” coup attempt, but predictably Syria, Turkey, and China have also declared intentions to stick by Maduro while voicing that the Venezuelan people alone should decide their fate.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

end

 

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

Not good:  Maduro kicks out USA diplomats from Venezuela

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Maduro Kicks Out US Diplomats As Video Of “Live Ammo” Clashes Emerges; Internet Blackout Across Venezuela

Things are deteriorating rapidly — or rather Nicholas Maduro’s prospects of remaining in power are  in Venezuela following Monday’s mutiny of military officers in an anti-Maduro neighborhood of Caracas leading to nation-wide opposition sponsored anti-regime protests Wednesday, and following President Trump’s shock declaration bestowing sole legitimacy on “the President of the Venezuelan National Assembly, Juan Guaido, as the Interim President of Venezuela.” A senior Trump administration official followed by saying “all options are on the table”.

The sheer speed of events internationally, and the building momentum of opposition resistance on the ground, appears to be bringing the full weight of “counterrevolutionary” forces down upon the opposition: about a dozen countries now refuse to recognize Maduro’s second term, internet and social media sites have been blocked through much of the country, Maduro has broken diplomatic relations with the US and given American diplomats 72 hours to leave, and the embattled president has called on all Venezuelans to defend the government against a coup. To top it all off, it appears American social media companies are ready to work the US government, given that Facebook and Instagram have removed Venezuelan Dictator Nicolás Maduro’s verification sign — this after opposition leader Juan Guaido swore himself in as “interim president”.

Wednesday clashes with police, image via Rafael Hernández

Time will tell if the significant weight of US meddling and pressures brought to bear will help or hurt the average Venezuelan, but likely things will get much worse before they get better. There are already signs, however, that the embattled regime could be in the early phases of crumbling. Unverified video has come out showing security forces facing down protesters who appear to have “switched sides” to join the protests:

Embedded video

Katie Hopkins

@KTHopkins

Beautiful. Members of the National Guard reject and let the good people of move forward with their demonstration

The power moves to the people.

Credit please @ivonnelago

However, elsewhere protests have grown bloody, as further unconfirmed video appears to show pro-Maduro forces firing live rounds against protesters.

Embedded video

BNL NEWS@BreakingNLive

⚠️ DISTURBING FOOTAGE:
BREAKING: At least 4 people have been killed after pro-Maduro forces opened fire at anti-Maduro protesters in the city of Barinas
Developing…:

 

Embedded video

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: Video Of Security forces reportedly shooting at protestors in the ‘n city of Barinas earlier today what responded in 4 people dead.

Mass anti-government protests which drew a reported hundreds of thousands in places like the capital have given way to clashes with police, likely to continue throughout the night.

Embedded video

NBC News

@NBCNews

Venezuela’s opposition filling streets nationwide today in protests against President Maduro and his socialist government.

National Assembly leader Juan Guaido personally called for anti-Maduro protests to be held nationwide on Wednesday — itself a historic date commemorating the end of Venezuela’s military dictatorship in 1958.

Embedded video

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: Heavy clashes right now between Pro-Maduro security forces and opposition protesters in central Caracas in .

Protests throughout the day appeared increasingly confrontational with police, who responded with tear gas and riot control measures.

There are also reports of major internet and social media blockages throughout the country.

Access Now

@accessnow

Update : confirmed internet disruption on , , , , and others: https://www.accessnow.org/social-media-shutdown-in-venezuela-is-a-warning-of-what-is-to-come-as-political-tensions-rise/ 

NetBlocks.org

@netblocks

Confirmed: Major Internet disruptions in #Venezuela amid protests; YouTube, Google search and social media knocked largely offline #KeepItOnhttps://netblocks.org/reports/major-internet-disruptions-in-venezuela-amid-protests-4JBQ2kyo 

View image on Twitter

Reuters reported previously that “Venezuelan security forces fired tear gas at opposition demonstrators blocking a highway in capital Caracas on Wednesday, amid growing pressure on socialist President Nicolas Maduro, Reuters images showed.”

Local news channels showed police attempting to clear the highway by firing what were described as “warning shots”. Opposition sources in other parts of the country are claiming, however, that police are increasingly resorting to “live fire”.

Meanwhile it appears in some places anti-Maduro demonstrators have attacked United Socialist Party of Venezuela offices.

Embedded video

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi
85 people are talking about this

Clashes are now rapidly escalating into violence as uncertainty grows. Much will be determined in the following days and will depend on the loyalty of the armed forces.

developing…

END

Trump backs the opposition leader as acting president, Guaido, as conditions inside Venezuela are chaotic after a failed  coup

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Backs Venezuelan Opposition Leader As ‘Acting President’ In Chaotic Aftermath Of Attempted Coup

Update 2: In his first public appearance since the unrest began, Maduro appeared on the balcony of the Miraflores palace to assure his supporters that he’s “not giving up” and not going anywhere.

In Venezuela@invenezuelablog

First sighting of @NicolasMaduro today. He’s one of two Venezuelan presidents right now.

He’s at the Miraflores Palace balcony, joined by his wife Cilia Flores, Diosdado Cabello, and VP Delcy Rodriguez (h/t @EfectoCocuyo)

Blocks away, clashes between protesters and national guard soldiers were escalating.

In Venezuela@invenezuelablog

Clashes on the Caracas Avenue in between protesters and National Guard soldiers https://twitter.com/Sinmordaza/status/1088163630368083975 

To try and convince Maduro to leave peacefully, the Trump administration on Wednesday offered to develop an “exit solution” for the Venezuelan leader if he elects to leave the country peacefully, according to the Washington Examiner.

“We will continue to work with all of our partners who have spoken up very loudly and clearly on this issue in order to, one, encourage them to take further steps to ensure that Maduro and his cronies are not able to loot any further from the Venezuelan people,” a senior administration official told reporters. “And by the way, in that regards, to work productively – if Maduro chooses to accept a peaceful transition of power – to find an exit solution for him, in that regards.”

If Maduro refuses, Trump could step up pressure by authorizing a full oil embargo, or grant Guaido and his provisional government access to millions of dollars in frozen Venezuelan assets.

Initially at least, Maduro didn’t seem too keen on the US’s offer. During his speech, he ordered all US diplomatic personal to leave the country within 72 hours and announced a diplomatic “break” with the US. He called on Venezuelans to rise up and stop the rebels, and accused Guaido of violating the country’s constitution.

* * *

Update: The list of countries recognizing Guaido as Venezuela’s legitimate president has grown to 10.

The Spectator Index@spectatorindex

Countries recognising Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s president:

US
– Canada
– Brazil
– Paraguay
– Colombia
– Argentina
– Peru
– Ecuador
– Costa Rica
– Chile

* * *

In the chaotic aftermath of the latest coup attempt against Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido, the head of the Venezuelan assembly has proclaimed himself ‘acting president’ with the explicit backing of the US in what’s looking more and more like a successful, US-backed coup.

“Today, January 23, 2019, I swear to formally assume the powers of the national executive as president in charge of Venezuela,” Guaido said as crowds of people singing the national anthem converged in Caracas central square.

During a speech in Caracas, he promised to run the country until free elections can be held.

Embedded video

Atlantide@Atlantide4world

:Juan dichiara di assumere il potere esecutivo e giura di fronte ad un’imponente folla a per rivestire l’incarico di presidente di un governo di transizione verso nuove libere elezioni

VENZ

The defiant outburst comes shortly after Maduro started a new six-year term, and one day after Vice President Mike Pence urged Venezuelans to rise up against his corrupt regime.

Clashes have continued following a failed coup attempt organized by a group of National Guard soldiers  who tried to unseat Maduro. In a retaliatory crackdown, Venezuelan police have blocked Internet access.

NetBlocks.org

@netblocks

Confirmed: Major Internet disruptions in amid protests; YouTube, Google search and social media knocked largely offline https://netblocks.org/reports/major-internet-disruptions-in-venezuela-amid-protests-4JBQ2kyo 

 

Follow along with live coverage below:

The clashes have continued…

Embedded video

Katty Guillén 💖@kattyvguillenb

@joseolivaresm esto debemos retwittearlo…. esto es lo que se debe hacer con los GN que están reprimiendo el día de hoy.
Vamos a hacer fuerza nosotros somos más.

Embedded video

Prof. Steve Hanke

@steve_hanke

Chaos in as millions are fed up with a socialist government that restricts their freedom and dooms them to poverty.

…As tens of thousands of Venezuelans have taken to the streets across the country.

Embedded video

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

Wow! Video of just one of the various meeting points in today calling for the end of the Maduro regime & restoration of Constitution. Massive turnout across dozens of cities across . Today is much different than past protests.

Embedded video

CaracasRadio.com@Caracas_Radio

Ciudadanos de Catia marchan por la autopista Francisco Fajardo, rumbo a la concentración en Chacao.

At least one military general has joined with the opposition (after US Sen. Marco Rubio encouraged military defections).

Embedded video

₲ф¢ђo мậℓ¢ЯiαÐo† 🇻🇪@gocho_malcriado

COMUNICADO MILITAR!
El general de división Jesús Alberto M Mendoza se pronuncia de que no podemos ser indiferentes ante la grave situación que vive el país.

And in an unprecedented move, the Trump administration announced that it would recognize Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela, Bloomberg reported. Canada joined the US in recognizing Guaido, as did Brazil – though Mexico reaffirmed that it recognizes Maduro as the country’s legitimate leader.

“The people of Venezuela have courageously spoken out against Maduro and his regime and demanded freedom and the rule of law,” Trump said in a statement from the White House.

Trump published a full statement on his twitter feed.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The citizens of Venezuela have suffered for too long at the hands of the illegitimate Maduro regime. Today, I have officially recognized the President of the Venezuelan National Assembly, Juan Guaido, as the Interim President of Venezuela.

Vice President Mike Pence

@VP

Today @POTUS announced the U.S. officially recognizes Juan Guaidó as the Interim President of Venezuela. To @JGuaido & the people of Venezuela: America stands with you & we will continue to stand with you until #Libertad is restored!

View image on Twitter

1

In a statement, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on Maduro to step aside and reaffirmed that the US will support Guaido as the country prepares for legitimate elections.

After uprisings in the summer of 2017 were brutally crushed by police, the opposition is hoping that a strong turnout on Wednesday will convince the military to switch sides and support the people over Maduro’s regime.

As Bloomberg’s Sebastian Boyd pointed out, Venezuelan bonds rallied on the news (likely spurred by growing optimism that this might be the end of Maduro’s reign).

VZ

It’s unclear where Maduro is, or what exactly is going on.

Does this mean:

i) a US-sponsored Venezuela coup and

ii) Venezuela oil production is about to soar

END

USA refuses to withdraw diplomats from Venezuela and announces that it will take appropriate actions if anyone is harmed.

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Refuses To Withdraw Diplomats From Venezuela, “Will Take Appropriate Actions” If Harmed

In what may shape up to be a major international incident over the next 48 hours, the United States has refused to withdraw diplomats from Venezuela, saying in a Wednesday evening statement that the US “stands with interim President Juan Guaido,” adding “The United States does not recognize the Maduro regime as the government of Venezuela. Accordingly the United States does not consider former president Nicolas Maduro to have the legal authority to break diplomatic relations with the United States or to declare our diplomats persona non grata.

Secretary Pompeo

@SecPompeo

U.S. will conduct diplomatic relations with through the government of interim President Guaido. U.S. does not recognize the regime. U.S. does not consider former president Maduro to have the legal authority to break diplomatic relations. https://go.usa.gov/xEBU3

Earlier Wednesday, Maduro broke diplomatic relations with the US, giving American diplomats 72 hours to leave Caracas after President Trump declared Maduro’s political opponent, Venezuelan National Assembly President Juan Guaido, the Interim President of Venezuela.

Nicolas Maduro

Guaido responded with a tweet of appreciation.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The citizens of Venezuela have suffered for too long at the hands of the illegitimate Maduro regime. Today, I have officially recognized the President of the Venezuelan National Assembly, Juan Guaido, as the Interim President of Venezuela.

Vice President Mike Pence

@VP

Today @POTUS announced the U.S. officially recognizes Juan Guaidó as the Interim President of Venezuela. To @JGuaido & the people of Venezuela: America stands with you & we will continue to stand with you until #Libertad is restored!

View image on Twitter

14 other countries have similarly recognized Guaido.

The Spectator Index@spectatorindex

Recognising Juan Guaido as president of Venezuela:

– US
– Canada
– Brazil
– Paraguay
– Colombia
– Argentina
– Peru
– Ecuador
– Costa Rica
– Chile
– Guatemala
– Panama
– Honduras
– Kosovo
– Georgia

Cuba and Bolivia, meanwhile, have expressed support for Maduro – while Mexico remains on the fence, supporting the empanada-eating Maduro “for now.”

Guaido – who swore himself in as acting president of Venezuela earlier Wednesday, asked all embassies to “maintain their diplomatic presence in the country.”

Juan Guaido

“Through the powers that the Constitution grants me, I would like to communicate to all leaders of diplomatic missions and their accredited staff in Venezuela — the state of Venezuela firmly wants you to maintain your diplomatic presence in our country. Any messages to the contrary lack any validity, since they come from people or entities that have been characterized as usurpers. They have no legitimate authority to make any statements on this.” -Juan Guaido

The United Nations is monitoring the situation according to UN Deputy Spokesman Farhan Haq during a Wednesday briefing.

“The United Nations firmly rejects any kind of political violence. We underline the urgent need for all relevant actors to commit to inclusive and credible political negotiations to address the challenges facing the country, with full respect for the rule of law and human rights,” said Haq in a statement.

Venezuelans, meanwhile, took to the streets en masse during a day of unrest in which pro-Maduro forces fired live rounds into the crowds killing several people.

Embedded video

NBC News

@NBCNews

Venezuela’s opposition filling streets nationwide today in protests against President Maduro and his socialist government.

⚠️ DISTURBING FOOTAGE:
BREAKING: At least 4 people have been killed after pro-Maduro forces opened fire at anti-Maduro protesters in the city of Barinas
Developing…:

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: More live ammo warning shots fired at protestors in Felipe, Yaracuy

Embedded video

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: Heavy clashes right now between Pro-Maduro security forces and opposition protesters in central Caracas in . pic.twitter.com/JZdsaQM9OP

Embedded video

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1349 DOWN .0037 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109;75  UP 0.254 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…DEADLY TO OUR YEN SHORTERS

GBP/USA 1.3021     DOWN   0.0062  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3358 UP .0016 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1401/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED  UP 10.69 POINTS OR 0.41% 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 112.78 POINTS OR 0.42%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.37%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 19.09 POINTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 112.78 POINTS OR 0.42% 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.69 PTS OR 0.41%

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .37%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 19.09 PTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1279.00

silver:$15.28

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.72% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.04 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.37 UP 25 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.65% DOWN 6    in basis point(s) yield from  WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.24% DOWN 7   IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.66 DOWN 9     POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 132 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.18%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.48% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1324 DOWN   .0063 or 63 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 109.69 UP  0.199 OR 20 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3030 DOWN.0051( POUND DOWN 51  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 1 basis points to 1.3334

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.7985 0N SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7958(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2570

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.01%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN  2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.72 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.04 DOWN 2  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.36 UP  24  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 23.93 OR 0.35%

German Dax : UP 58.64 POINTS OR 0.53%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 31.58 POINTS OR 0.65%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 21.20 POINTS OR  0.23%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 164.73 POINTS OR 0.85%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.10 12:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 61.42 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.76  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.33 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 33 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.2570 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.18 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  53,19

 

 

BRENT :  61.03

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.71  (DANGEROUSLY LOW)

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.03

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.13099 ( DOWN 76    BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.58 UP .080 (YEN DOWN 8   BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.53 UP 41 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3059  DOWN 22 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 52605

the Russian rouble:   UP .34 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 34 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  DOWN 19 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7885  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7951  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.18%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 22.38 POINTS OR 0.09%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 47.69 POINTS OR 0.68%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.65 CLOSED DOWN  .87 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.771%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/

 

FROM 2.779

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Bonds & Dollar Bid And Kudlow Rescues Stocks From Ross Rout

Plunging PMIs, “miles and miles” to go on US-China trade talks, and no end in sight for the shutdown… so wheel Larry Kudlow out on TV to talk up everything and rescue stocks…

 

Chinese markets bounced back to unch on the week overnight…

 

UK’s FTSE continues to tumble as Spain outperformed despite ugly PMIs across eurozone…

 

US markets were a rollercoaster of trade and shutdown headlines – Wilbur Ross admitted “miles and miles” to go until we have a trade deal with China and stocks puked. Algos ramped us into the US open, then dipped on weak PMIs, then The White House unleashed Larry Kudlow to save the world and he did briefly but we retested lows after that before the machines went back to work to rescue stocks from their 50-day moving averages…

 

And here’s the fun-durr-mental reason they’re buying stocks…

 

While stocks bounced back, bonds were bid all day..

 

And yields ended near the lows of the day…

 

Big dump (Ross) and Pump (Kudlow) in the dollar today…

 

Noisy day in yuan today…

 

Litecoin jumped on the day and Bitcoin drifted modestly higher but remains down on the week…

 

Another chaotic day in crude markets but copper continues to trade lower (despite a bounce in china stocks)…

 

WTI dropped immediately after the DOE data (as it should) but then was panic-bid higher…

 

Finally, “hope” hits its lowest since Trump was elected…

And spot the difference – Fed Rate change expectations for 2019 and the S&P 500…

“Data Dependence” at its best!

END

market trading/

As promised: futures slide after Wilbur Ross states the truth:  China and the USA are miles apart
(courtesy zerohedge)

Futures Slide After Ross Warns US, China “Miles And Miles” Apart On Trade

There appears to be some fresh confusion in the Trump administration, because shortly after a barrage of press reports – and statements by Larry Kudlow – suggested that the US and China were making good progress in their trade negotiations, moments ago Wilbur Ross appeared on CNBC and poured cold water on optimism, saying that the US and China remain “miles and miles” away from a trade resolution.

  • ROSS: U.S., CHINA `MILES AND MILES’ AWAY FROM TRADE RESOLUTION
  • ROSS: LARGE CHINA DELEGATION COMING NEXT WEEK TO TALK TRADE

Specifically, this is what Ross said:

We’re miles and miles from getting a resolution and that shouldn’t be too surprising. Trade is complicated. There are lots and lots of issues, not just how many soybeans and how much LNG but even more importantly, structural reforms that we really think are needed in the Chinese economy and then even more important than that enforcement mechanisms and penalties for failure to adhere to whatever we agree to.

People shouldn’t think the events of next week will be the solution to all of the issues between the united states and China. It’s too complicate a topic, too many issues. That’s different from saying we won’t get to a deal. I think there’s a fair chance we do get to a deal.

The reaction:

Ross then tried to walk back some of this pessimism…

  • ROSS SAYS `FAIR CHANCE’ U.S., CHINA ARRIVE AT TRADE DEAL

… but it appears that he failed as the market response to this fresh dose of pessimism was instant, with the USDJPY slumping and US equity futures hit, and dropping to overnight session lows.

And now we wait to see if Larry Kudlow will emerge on CNBC 30 minutes before the close to deny everything that Ross said just to provide a modest boost to markets.

end

MARKET DATA

Service PMI USA falls to a 4 month low but supposedly mfg rebounds a bit /soft survey data  basically collapses

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Services Slow, Manufacturing Rebounds As ‘Soft’ Survey Data Collapses

After Europe’s PMI plunged (led by contractions in France and Germany), US PMIs offered a mixed bag with Services dropping to 4-month lows and Manufacturing rebounding to 2-month highs.

On the Services side, new business growth remained subdued in comparison to the peaks seen in the first half of 2018. The latest rise in new work was one of the weakest seen in the past year-and-a-half.

On the manufacturing side, the improvement in overall business conditions was driven by the fastest expansion of production since May 2018. New orders, employment and stocks of purchases also increased at faster rates in January.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“US businesses reported a solid start to 2019, with the rate of expansion running only slightly weaker than the average seen in the second half of last year.

“The resilience of the survey data suggest little impact from the government shutdown on the private sector, with very few companies reporting any material detrimental impact on their output or order books.

“Historical comparisons suggest January’s survey data are indicative of the economy growing at an annualised rate close to 2.5%. However, as the survey does not include the government sector, the impact of the shutdown may not be fully captured.

“Manufacturers reported faster rates of increase for both output and order books during the month, accompanied by ongoing robust service sector growth. Both sectors continued to rely on domestic demand, however, with service sector exports falling for a second successive month and goods exports rising only moderately, acting as a drag on overall order books.

“The jobs data from the surveys were also somewhat disappointing, with the overall rate of job creation slipping to a 20-month low. However, even this weaker January survey employment index reading is consistent with private sector payroll growth of approximately 150,000.

“Encouragingly, business sentiment about the year ahead lifted higher, suggesting companies have started the year with increased optimism, boding well for robust business growth to be sustained in coming months.”

Finally, we note that ‘soft’ survey data has been collapsing recently, as hope plunged back below ‘hard’ data reality for the first time since Trump was elected…

Will ‘hope’ rebound with stocks? Or has the shutdown spoiled the party?

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

 

SWAMP STORIES

Cohen postpones House testimony citing threats from Trump and Giuliani

(courtesy zerohedge)

Cohen Postpones House Testimony, Citing Threats From Trump, Giuliani

Michael D. Cohen, Trump’s former personal lawyer and fixer who subsequently turned on his formerly employer, and who was scheduled to appear before the House Oversight Committee – which will also sport Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez among its ranks – has indefinitely postponed his congressional testimony, his lawyer said in a statement on Wednesday.

According tot he NYT, Cohen was set to appear before the House Oversight Committee on Feb. 7 at the invitation of Rep (D, MD) Elijah Cummings and the chairman of the committee, but according to the NYT, “backed out because of ongoing threats against his family, his lawyer Lanny Davis said in a statement.” Davis cited Trump’s verbal attacks on Mr. Cohen and some of his relatives.

“By advice of counsel, Mr. Cohen’s appearance will be postponed to a later date,” Mr. Davis said in the statement. “Mr. Cohen wishes to thank Chairman Cummings for allowing him to appear before the House Oversight Committee and looks forward to testifying at the appropriate time.” He added, “This is a time where Mr. Cohen had to put his family and their safety first.”

We now look forward to Trump’s tweet in response to Cohen getting cold paws right after the BuzzFeed article that was supposed to be the smoking gun in starting impeachment proceedings against Trump.

END
Cohen receives a subpoena from the Intel Committee and thus he agrees to appear:
(courtesy zerohedge)

Cohen Agrees To Testify Before Intel Committee After Senate Subpoena

Earlier this week, Michael Cohen delayed his testimony before the House Oversight Committee, which had initially been set for Feb. 7, citing concerns about his family’s safety following what Cohen described as threats issued by President Trump and his lawyer Rudy Giuliani. And before the former Trump Organization attorney-turned government witness could even reschedule, it looks like the Senate Intelligence Committee has jumped at the opportunity to try and be the first to drag Cohen in behind closed doors by issuing a subpoena.

Michael

According to the Wall Street Journal, Cohen will appear before the committee for a closed-door meeting on Feb. 12. Though the testimony will be closed, we imagine the details will swiftly leak to the press.

The subpoena was issued a day after the chairmen of the House Oversight and Intelligence committees issued a joint statement saying they expected Cohen to testify before their panels, and that not doing so was “never an option.”

Cohen is expected to begin his three year prison sentence on March 6, though he still has time to offer further cooperation to prosecutors that could mitigate his time served.

Trump delays his state of the union speech
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Delays State Of The Union

After more than a week of back-and-forth with the Democratic leadership, President Trump has called off his search for an alternative venue for the State of the Union according to a pair of tweets sent late Wednesday night.

Trump

Instead, he will reschedule the speech after the shutdown has ended due to the difficulty in finding a venue “that can compete with the history, tradition and importance of the House Chamber!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

As the Shutdown was going on, Nancy Pelosi asked me to give the State of the Union Address. I agreed. She then changed her mind because of the Shutdown, suggesting a later date. This is her prerogative – I will do the Address when the Shutdown is over. I am not looking for an….

35.2K people are talking about this

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….alternative venue for the SOTU Address because there is no venue that can compete with the history, tradition and importance of the House Chamber. I look forward to giving a “great” State of the Union Address in the near future!

Trump blamed the decision to reschedule on Pelosi, and rightfully so. The Democratic leader is refusing to pass a resolution needed to formally invite the president to give the address at the Capitol.

But lest Americans accuse her of pursuing political ends, Pelosi argued that “security concerns” motivated herto cancel the speech ue to both the Secret Service and DHS being affected by the shutdown, though both have assured the president that security wouldn’t be an issue if the SOTU was allowed to move forward).

In other words…

Wall

end
The anatomy of the crime revealed:  Clinton’s 2016 strategy has now been uncovered…overwhelm the FBI with Trump/Russia narrative until something sticks
(courtesy zerohedge)

Clinton’s 2016 Strategy Revealed: Overwhelm FBI With Trump-Russia Narrative Until Something Stuck

As it became clear during the 2016 US election that Donald Trump had a mountain of support underneath him, nervous Democrats connected to the Hillary Clinton camp reached out to US officials over a half-dozen times, “each tapping a political connection to get suspect evidence into FBI counterintelligence agents’ hands,” according to The Hill‘s John Solomon, citing internal documents and testimonies he has reviewed, along with interviews Solomon conducted.

Each contact by a Clinton crony was unsolicited, according to Solomon’s FBI sources, in what they described as a “classic case of information saturation” meant to inject toxic and unverified opposition research into the agency’s counterintelligence apparatus that should have known better than to eventually bite.

Ex-FBI general counsel James Baker, one of the more senior bureau executives to be targeted, gave a memorable answer when congressional investigators asked how attorney Michael Sussmann from the Perkins Coie law firm, which represented the Clinton campaign and Democratic Party, came to personally deliver him dirt on Trump.

You’d have to ask him why he decided to pick me,” Baker said last year in testimony that has not yet been released publicly. The FBI’s top lawyer turned over a calendar notation to Congress, indicating that he met Sussmann on Sept. 19, 2016, less than two months before Election Day. –The Hill

Perkins Coie, as we know, paid Fusion GPS to produce opposition research assembled by former MI6 spy Christopher Steele in his now infamous “Steele Dossier,” which suggested that Donald Trump colluded with Moscow during the 2016 election.

By the time Perkins attorney Sussman reached out to the FBI’s James Baker, the Steele dossier had already made its way inside the FBI. Sussman, however, “augmented it with cyber evidence that he claimed showed a further connection between the GOP campaign and Russian President Vladimir Putin,” according to Solomon. Some of this digital evidence was delivered on a thumb drive, according to Baker.

“[Sussmann] told me he had cyber experts that had obtained some information that they thought they should get into the hands of the FBI,” Baker testified. “I referred this to investigators, and I believe they made a record of it,” he added, telling his colleagues to “Please come get this.”

Baker acknowledged that the Clinton-linked attorney’s evidence did not follow the typical route into the FBI – but since he was the bureau’s top attorney, agents snapped-to and collected it from him.

Rewinding to Steele’s first outreach

According to Solomon, “the tsunami began when former MI6 agent Steele first approached an FBI supervisor, his handler in an earlier criminal case, in London” on July 5, 2016 – the same day that former FBI Director James Comey made the shock announcement that he would not recommend criminal charges against Hillary Clinton for mishandling classified emails on her homebrew server.

Steele’s approach was not initially embraced, however, and the FBI took no action on the dossier according to congressional investigators. Then things escalated…

Steele traveled to Washington later that month where he would reach out to two political contacts who were in positions to influence the FBI; a former State Department official under John Kerry, and former #4 DOJ official Bruce Ohr – who immediately took Steele’s “research” to then-FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. Ohr would eventually warn the FBI that Steele’s information was biased opposition research, which the agency ignored.

Then-senior State Department official Jonathan Winer, who worked for then-Secretary John Kerry, wrote that Steele first approached him in the summer with his Trump research and then met again with him in September. Winer consulted his boss, Assistant Secretary for Eurasia Affairs Victoria Nuland, who said she first learned of Steele’s allegations in late July and urged Winer to send it to the FBI.

(If you need further intrigue, Winer worked from 2008 to 2013 for the lobbying and public relations firm APCO Worldwide, the same firm that was a contractor for both the Clinton Global Initiative and Russia’s main nuclear fuel company that won big decisions from the Obama administration.)

When the State Department office that oversees Russian affairs sends something to the FBI, agents take note.

But Steele was hardly done. He reached out to his longtime Justice Department contact, Bruce Ohr, then a deputy to Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates. Steele had breakfast July 30, 2016, with Ohr and his wife, Nellie, to discuss the Russia-Trump dirt.

(To thicken the plot, you should know that Nellie Ohr was a Russia expert working at the time for the same Fusion GPS firm that hired Steele and was hired by the Clinton campaign through Sussmann’s Perkins Coie.) –The Hill

The Australia connection

While Ohr had passed the Clinton-funded Steele dossier to the FBI, Australia’s ambassador to London, Alexander Downer, contacted US officials – who said Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos drunkenly admitted to knowing that Russia had dirt on Hillary Clinton.

Downer has a major connection to the Clintons – securing a $25 million donation from the Australian government to the Clinton Foundation in the early 2000s. Between 2006 and 2014, the Clinton FOundation received some $88 million from Australian taxpayers

Alexander Downer, Bill Clinton

Downer’s tip on Papadopoulos launched Operation Crossfire Hurricane – the FBI’s counterintelligence operation which employed spies to infiltrate the Trump campaign. 

Continuing with the Trump-Russia “saturation campaign” was the September 2016 delivery of more anti-Trump opposition research delivered to Winer and Nuland – the Kerry State Department employees. This time, however, the opposition research was crafted by known Clinton associates Sidney Blumenthal and Cody Shearer. This second “dossier” was also sent to the FBI.

All in all – it was a full court press against Trump and his campaign – including an outreach by Christopher Steele to the media which resulted in the FBI severing their relationship with him (despite using his research as the foundation for a FISA spy warrant against Trump campaign aide Carter Page).

By mid-September — less than a month before Election Day — there likely was agitation inside the Clinton machine: After so many overtures to the FBI, there was no visible sign of an investigation.

Simpson and Steele began briefing reporters with the hope of getting the word out. It is taboo for an FBI source such as Steele to talk to the media about his work. Yet, he took the risk, eventually getting fired for it, according to FBI documents.

Baker, the FBI’s top lawyer, testified to Congress that he was clearly aware Simpson’s team was shopping the media. “My understanding at the time was that Simpson was going around Washington giving this out to a lot of different people and trying to elevate its profile,” Baker told congressional investigators.

Ohr, through his contacts with Steele and Simpson, also knew the media had been contacted. In handwritten notes from late 2016, Ohr quoted Simpson as saying his outreach to reporters was a “Hail Mary attempt” to sway voters. –The Hill

Congressional push…

Clinton’s opposition research got some congressional assistance when then-Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid – after having been briefed by then-CIA Director John Brennan, sent a letter to the FBI in late October, 2016 “demanding to know if agents were pursuing the evidence,” writes Solomon.

In other words, the Trump-Russia narrative from Team Clinton was promoted through the State Department, Congress, Justice Department and a top Democratic lawyer. And nobody in the FBI – according to what we know, made any efforts to interfere with an obvious attempt at a political hit job.

In another timeline, Hillary Clinton won the election and none of this information would have come to light. That said, it doesn’t seem to matter anyway since there’s clearly a ruling class that’s above the law – whether they win elections or not.

 

 

END

Two votes fail to win legislation to end the shutdown in the Senate

(courtesy zerohedge)

Senate Rejects White House-Backed Bill To End Shutdown

The U.S. Senate has blocked legislation that incorporates President Trump’s proposal to fully open the government and includes his demand for $5.7 billion to help build a border wall, as the partial government shutdown approaches its 35th day – the longest in US history.

While Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) joined Republicans to advance the measure, it failed by a margin of 50-47, far short of the 60 votes needed to defeat a filibuster.

GOP Senators Mike Lee (Utah) and Tom Cotton (Arkansas) surprisingly voted against Trump’s plan. Lee is considered a fiscal hawk, while Cotton is considered one of the Senate’s most conservative members when it comes to immigration.

Senate Republicans also blocked a stopgap measure to end the partial shutdown, voting 52-44 on the legislation, also short of the 60 votes needed to defeat a filibuster.

GOP Sens. Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), Susan Collins (Maine), Cory Gardner(Colo.), Johnny Isakson (Ga.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Mitt Romney(Nev.) broke rank and voted to advance the stopgap bill, which would have reopened the quarter of the government currently shuttered and funded it through Feb. 8.

The vote came after the Senate also rejected a White House-backed proposal on Thursday that would have exchanged reopening the government for $5.7 billion for the wall. It would have allowed Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients and some Temporary Protected Status (TPS) holders to apply for a three-year extension of some legal protections, but included new restrictions on asylum seekers. –The Hill

The two failed votes in the Senate all but guarantees that the partial government shutdown will stretch into next week, while more than 800,000 federal workers will miss their second paycheck on Friday.

Last month the Senate passed a continuing resolution (CR) that would have prevented the partial shutdown and funded operations until February 8, however it was ill fated after President Trump said that he would not sign any legislation that did not include $5.7 billion for his border wall.

“Leader McConnell says that President Trump’s bill is the only way to open up the government – bull. He claims our bill won’t pass because President Trump won’t sign it. Has he ever heard of a veto override? Has he ever heard of Article I?” asked Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) from the floor of the Senate on Thursday.

Trump, meanwhile, is not backing down from his demand for wall funding – tweeting Thursday morning ahead of the vote “Without a Wall there cannot be safety and security at the Border or for the U.S.A. BUILD THE WALL AND CRIME WILL FALL!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Without a Wall there cannot be safety and security at the Border or for the U.S.A. BUILD THE WALL AND CRIME WILL FALL!

50.9K people are talking about this

“We will not cave!” Trump tweeted later:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Nancy just said she “just doesn’t understand why?” Very simply, without a Wall it all doesn’t work. Our Country has a chance to greatly reduce Crime, Human Trafficking, Gangs and Drugs. Should have been done for decades. We will not Cave!

60.9K people are talking about this

The debate has largely come down to a fight between Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and prominent Democrats – who have refused to budge on wall funding despite concessions made by President Trump towards DACA recipients.

Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) tried to characterize the decision between the two votes as wanting to make a “law,” by backing the GOP effort, or trying to make “points,” by supporting the short-term continuing resolution.

Republicans are trying to drive a wedge between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Democrats, who have remained deeply unified throughout the weeks-long fight. –The Hill

“They know the Speaker of the House is unreasonable on these subjects, with her own members and her own House Majority Leader openly contradicting her on national television, and that Senate Democrats are not obligated to go down with her ship,” said McConnell, speaking from the Senate Floor.

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

“Rudy Has Lost His Mind”: Trump Furious With Giuliani after String of Botched Interviews

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-23/rudy-has-lost-his-mind-trump-furious-giuliani-after-string-botched-interviews

Trump, others agitated by Giuliani’s performance – … allies fear he goes on TV after drinking

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6621863/amp/Giulianis-media-blitz-draws-ire-Trump-allies.html

“Vietnam Vet” Indian Outed As Fridge-Fixer

The Native American “Vietnam Vet” Nathan Phillips… has been outed for never serving in Vietnam despite repeatedly claiming to have done so… According to retired Navy Seal Don Shipley – whose YouTube channel is devoted to exposing stolen valor, Phillips’ records reveal that he was a refrigerator technician who went AWOL several times, and who was never deployed outside of the United States.  Shipley adds that Phillips never served as a “recon ranger” as he has previously claimed

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-23/i-cant-say-im-sorry-says-covington-maga-hat-teen-vietnam-vet-indian-outed-fridge

@MZHemingway: If many media types are dishonest about reporting contradicted and shown to be dangerously false by hours of extensive video evidence, how astronomically much are they misreporting their claims based on absolutely nothing but anonymous sources?

@BuckSexton: Journalism professors exist so that journalists look a little less dumb by comparison

The MSM, other miscreants, a bipartisan gaggle of DJT haters and the Thought Police (“1984”) berated the Covington Catholic MAGA kid for “smirking”.  In “1984”, Big Brother prosecuted people for “facecrime”.  PS – Did you ever think about owning some gold?

It was terribly dangerous to let your thoughts wander when you were in any public place or within range of a telescreen. The smallest thing could give you away. A nervous tic, an unconscious look of anxiety, a habit of muttering to yourself—anything that carried with it the suggestion of abnormality, of having something to hide. In any case, to wear an improper expression on your face (to look incredulous when a victory was announced, for example) was itself a punishable offence. There was even a word for it in Newspeak: FACECRIME, it was called.”  “1984”, Chapter 5, page 79

Chapter 5 of “1984” also addresses ‘Newspeak’, the abolition of offensive and unnecessary words.

Don’t you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought? In the end we shall make thoughtcrime literally impossible, because there will be no words in which to express it… Every year fewer and fewer words, and the range of consciousness always a little smaller. Even now, of course, there’s no reason or excuse for committing thoughtcrime…”[Is thinking about gold a ‘thoughtcrime’?]

The Chicago Tribune’s top columnist, John Kass: Thought crimes, media abuse and those Catholic high school boys from Covington

    But it wasn’t just CNN and those on the left that peeled the skin of the boys from Covington.  The most depressing part of it all is that the center-right also jumped on them hard, lest they, too, be accused of supporting thought crimes…

     This is the new debilitating fear in America: being accused of thought crime and attacked by cyberbarbarians. You may be shamed and lose your career and have everything taken away. Depending, of course, upon your politics.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/kass/ct-met-covington-catholic-dc-video-kass-20190122-story.html

Gannett lays off journalists across the country

https://www.poynter.org/business-work/2019/gannett-lays-off-journalists-across-the-country/

 

BuzzFeed to Lay Off 15 Percent of Company Workforce

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/buzzfeed-lay-15-percent-company-workforce-1178575

Verizon Media Group is laying off 7% of its staff

end

I WILL SEE YOU FRIDAY NIGHT
.
H
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