JAN 30/FOMC STATEMENT: PATIENCE IN RAISING RATES AND THEY WILL ANNOUNCE THE SLOWING OF RUN OFF OF THE FED BALANCE SHEET: GOLD UP 65 CENTS IN COMEX TRADING TIME TO $1310.80/SILVER UP 7 CENTS TO $15.91//BUT IN ACCESS GOLD AT 1319.00/SILVER AT $16.06/GLD RECORDS A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD/RUSSIA MYSTERIOUSLY CARTS OFF 20 TONNES OF GOLD FROM VENEZUELA //GOOD NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1310.80 UP $0.65 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.91 UP 7 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1319.20

 

silver: $16.08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

JANUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ (0.000 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  585 NOTICES FOR 58500 OZ  (1.8195 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JANUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

8 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 40,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1178 for 5,890,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3444: UP 32

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3418 DOWN   $15 

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 0/0

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2295 CONTRACTS FROM 192,066 UP TO 194,895 ACCOMPANYING YESTERDAY’S 9 CENT GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

2021 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2021 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2021 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2021 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 10.105 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

 21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

AND NOW: INITIALLY 5.805 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY: 42,437 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 42,437 CONTRACTS) OR 212.185 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2224 CONTRACTS OR 11.120 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  212.185 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 30.312% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           212.185    MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2295 WITH THE 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2021 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED: 4316 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2021 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2295 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.84 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .974 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 8 NOTICE(S) FOR 40,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ  AND NOW JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 46,978 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 483,390 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.15//YESTERDAY’S TRADING). 

THE LOSS IN OPEN INTEREST IS DUE TO SPREADERS WHO MUST LIQUIDATE THEIR POSITIONS AS THEY COME INTO AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. SINCE FEBRUARY IS AN ACTIVE MONTH FOR GOLD, THIS IS WHY WE ALWAYS SEE A CONTRACTION IN OPEN INTEREST ONCE WE APPROACH FIRST DAY NOTICE. SINCE THE SPREADERS HAVE AN IDENTICAL LONG AND SHORT POSITION, THE LIQUIDATION DOES NOT AFFECT PRICE.

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 10,460 CONTRACTS:

 

FEBRUARY HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 10,460 CONTACTS  APRIL 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 483,390. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN STRONG SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 36,518 CONTRACTS: 46,978 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 10,460 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS: 36,518 CONTRACTS OR 3,651,800 OZ = 113.5 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $6.15.

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 8597 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY : 159,521 CONTRACTS OR 15,952,100 OZ  OR 496.18 TONNES (20 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7845 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 496.18 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 496.18/2550 x 100% TONNES = 19.45% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     496.18  TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 46,978 (WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LOSS COMING FROM THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS) DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($6.15) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 10,460 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 10460 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 36,518 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

10,460 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 46,978 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 113.5 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $6.15 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had:  0 notice(s) filed upon for nil oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY 

 

ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

A DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD

THE GLD AND SLV ARE ABSOLUTE FRAUDS//THERE IS NO METAL BEHIND THEM.

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   823.87 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 823.87 tonnes.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

 

ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/

A “PAPER DEPOSIT” OF 938,000 OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.597 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 2295 CONTRACTS from 192,600 UP TO 194,895  AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

2021 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2021 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2295 CONTRACTS TO THE 2021 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN  OF 4316  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 21.65 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER AND 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 9 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 2021 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 18.68 PTS OR 0.72% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 111.17 POINTS OR 0.40% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 108.10  PTS OR 0.52%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .20%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7170 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 52.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.53 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.7170 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7295: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

i) CHINA/HUAWEI

The fight with the uSA intensifies.  Now Huawei asks its suppliers to move production out of the USA

( zerohedge)

ii)This is interesting:  a one billion USA Chinese financed skyscraper complex in downtown LA mysteriously halts construction.
( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

The government uses “project fear” to tell citizens that a Brexit would lead to thousands of deaths and mass hunger

( zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)/Russia

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Global warming? NASA scientists now expect global cooling

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

It now looks like we are having legal piracy in the Caribbean has Venezuela has not paid its docking fees.  Authorities have followed the ConocoPhillips model of seizing vessels for non payment of fees.

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

VENEZUELA/

 

The USA hands over dollars held at the Fed over to Guaido.  Russia has voiced their concern on this as they state that it is Maduro’s government is the real authority.  Russia lent Venezuela 3 billion dollars. China also has vast interests inside Venezuela after they have lent considerable amounts of money to them.

( zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)We have been noticing this as well: gold and silver are less susceptible to usual smashes.  The geopolitical climate strongly favours gold/silver.
( KingworldNews/James Turk/GATA)
ii)Even though gold and silver metals and stocks are manipulated and technical analysis is of no use, Craig Hemke states that some technical signals are indicating a rise for the mining companies( Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA)

iii)Mysterious Russian plane removes 20 tonnes of gold from Venezuela’s vaults.

( zerohedge/)

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

Here is what the Fed said today:  they surprised on rate hikes and balance sheet unwinds. Get ready for QE4

( zerohedge)

 

 

ii)Market data/

Pending homes sales crash 2.2% month over month.  This is a hard data report

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Apple stock jumps after the algos jump on them beating muted expectations.  However iphone sales drop 15% and Chinese sales plunge 5 billion dollars.

Another good Bellwether as to growth growth

( zerohedge)

b)For the second time ever Apple cuts its iphone prices

( zerohedge)
c)Simon Black outlines why a wealth tax would be devastating to any economy
( Simon Black/Sovereign Man)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Trump claims that there is not going to be any deal to consider a wall.  Thus he must use his emergency measures to do the deed

( zerohedge)

b)Trump slams his own intelligence officials to “go back to school” with respect to ISIS.  He also tells the Deep State to be careful on Iran although economically he has destroyed them

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN FELL BY AN HUMONGOUS SIZED 46,978 CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 483,390 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($6.15) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES.THUS, THE REASON FOR THE COLLAPSE IN OPEN INTEREST IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 10,460 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR FEBRUARY:  10460. FOR APRIL 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  10460 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  36,518 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,460 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A HUMONGOUS SIZED 46,978 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 36,518 contracts OR 3,551,800  OZ OR 113.5 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of JANUARY and here the open interest stands at 0 contracts as we LOST  25 contracts. We had 25 notices filed on yesterday so we LOST 0 contracts or NIL oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next active delivery month is February and here the OI LOST 68,916 contracts DOWN to 36,030 contracts.  After February, March GAINED 359 contracts to stand at 1645.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI rose by 10,393 contracts up to 318,305 contracts. We have 1 day left before first day notice.

AT THIS TIME OF THE DELIVERY CYCLE LAST YEAR WE HAD FEB 2018 OPEN INTEREST OF 32,327 CONTRACTS//1 DAYS BEFORE FDN.( vs today:  36,030 contracts//1 DAY BEFORE FDN)

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE  January 2018 contract month/AND FEBRUARY 2018

 

 

ON JANUARY 1/2018: 1.297 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY  (Jan 1 2019 initial standing 1.306 tonnes)

EVENTUALLY ON JAN 31.2018: 2.17 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX

ON FEB 1.2018: 20.07 TONNES OF GOLD STOOD FOR DELIVERY, BUT BY THE END OF MONTH ONLY 8.55 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR NIL OZ. (0..0000 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A strong SIZED 2295  CONTRACTS FROM 191,473 UP TO 194,895(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS 8 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST  349 CONTRACT FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 351 NOTICES FILED ON YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR  10,000 ADDITIONAL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR SILVER AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IS THE NORM AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THE DEALERS SCRAMBLE FOR WHATEVER PHYSICAL THEY CAN OBTAIN.

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS FEBRUARY AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 24 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 405. AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI GAINED BY 1523 CONTRACTS UP TO 139,346 CONTRACTS.

COMPARISON VS LAST YR:

AS A COMPARISON TO LAST YEAR WITH 1 DAY TO GO BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE WE HAD 136 CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY (VS 405 TODAY/1 DAY BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE).

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 4316 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 2295 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2021 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4316 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH A 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// FRIDAY

 

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH AND JANUARY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH AND FEB 2018

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE JAN 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD A GOOD 2.695 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY’

AT THE CONCLUSION OF JAN/2018 WE HAD 3.650 MILLION OZ STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NORM FOR SILVER

.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FEB 1 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 670,000 OZ.  AT THE MONTH’S CONCLUSION WE HAD 2.035 MILLION OZ STAND AS WE WITNESSED QUEUE JUMPING ON A REGULAR BASIS AT THE SILVER COMEX.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 8 notice(s) filed for 40,000 OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  269,608 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  426,470  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FINAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 30/2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

16,014.780

 

OZ

 

Scotia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(NIL oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
585 notices
58,500 OZ
1.8195 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) into Scotia:  16,014.780 oz

 

 

 

total gold customer deposits;  16,014.780 oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  nil oz

 

we had 0  adjustments….

FOR THE JAN 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (585) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (0 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 58,500 OZ OR 1.8195 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON  active month of JANUARY

 

Thus the FINAL standings for gold for the JAN/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (585 x 100 oz)  + {0)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 5850oz standing OR 1.8195 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JANUARY.

Today we LOST 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand in this non active month of January

.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.055 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.8195 TONNES STANDING FOR JANUARY

LAST MONTH WE HAVE 23.37 TONNES OF GOLD SUPPOSEDLY DELIVERED UPON BUT THIS AMOUNT OF GOLD DID NOT LEAVE THE REGISTERED GOLD CATEGORY AT THE COMEX.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  743,234.607 oz or   23.11 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,438,960.347 oz 262.48 tonnes

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 92 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

JAN FINAL standings/SILVER

JAN 30, 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
600,367.291  oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
8
CONTRACT(S)
40,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1178 contracts

(5,890,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits:  nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.77% of all official comex silver. (149.787 million/295 million)

 

ii) Into everybody else:  0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: nil   oz

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of Scotia:  570,293.680 oz

ii) Out of CNT:  30,073.611 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 600,367.291    oz

 

we had 0 adjustments..

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.798 million

total dealer + customer silver:  297.231 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY 2019. contract month is represented by 351 contract(s) FOR 1,755,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1178 x 5,000 oz = 5,890,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (8) and the number of notices served upon today (8x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY/2019 contract month: 1178(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN( 357) -number of notices served upon today (8)x 5000 oz equals 5,890,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month. We gained 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz will stand for delivery and these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  67.854 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 65,791 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 65,791 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 328 million OZ  46.99% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.78% (JAN 29/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.89% to NAV (JAN 29 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -378%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.46/TRADING 12.99/DISCOUNT 3.47

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $.65: A HUGE HUGE MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87..SO FAR IN JANUARY: 28.56 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $6.15/A HUGE ADDITION OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.64 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $17.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

jAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70?: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP 50 CENTS: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD UP A TINY $.85 A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE FRAUDULENT GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 STRANGELY A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $8.65: A MASSIVE 15.88 TONNES WAS ADDED INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 790.02 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $0.15: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $15.15: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.15 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.14 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JAN 30/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 823.87 tonnes

*IN LAST 542 TRADING DAYS: 111.28 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 442 TRADING DAYS: A NET 48.75 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 INTO THE SLV INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.597 MILLION OZ.

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.408 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.659 MILLION OZ/

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: A HUGE LOSS OF 938,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.179 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/SLV IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.189 MILLION OZ/

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/NO DOUBT THE MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF PAPER SILVER WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.895 MILLION OZ./INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110 MILLION OZ/

JAN 16/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.158 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.005 MILLION OZ/

JAN 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 469,000 OZ FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.163 MILLION OZ/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN ADDITION OF 94,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317,233

DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.408 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/ INV. RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

 

 

JAN 30/2019:

 

Inventory 309.597 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.28/ and libor 6 month duration 2.82

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .54

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.57%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.02

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.45

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

U.S.-China War May Be “Just A Shot Away”

– “World’s most dangerous hotspot” is in the South China Sea
– Currency and trade wars can lead to shooting wars warns Rickards
– Chinese buildup in South China Sea like ‘preparing for World War III’ says US senator (see news)
– U.S.-China shooting war could be, as Mick Jagger put it, “just a shot away…”


Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks after reviewing the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy fleet in the South China Sea on April 12. Xi has urged the PLAN to better prepare for combat, according to state media reports. (Li Gang/Xinhua via AP)

The World’s Most Dangerous Hotspot

By Jim Rickards for the Daily Reckoning

I have warned repeatedly that currency wars and trade wars can lead to shooting wars. Both history and analysis support this thesis.

Currency wars do not exist all the time; they arise under certain conditions and persist until there is either systemic reform or systemic collapse. The conditions that give rise to currency wars are too much debt and too little growth.

In those circumstances, countries try to steal growth from trading partners by cheapening their currencies to promote exports and create export-related jobs.

The problem with currency wars is that they are zero-sum or negative-sum games. It is true that countries can obtain short-term relief by cheapening their currencies, but sooner than later, their trading partners also cheapen their currencies to regain the export advantage.

This process of tit-for-tat devaluations feeds on itself with the pendulum of short-term trade advantage swinging back and forth and no one getting any further ahead.

After a few years, the futility of currency wars becomes apparent, and countries resort to trade wars. This consists of punitive tariffs, export subsidies and nontariff barriers to trade.

The dynamic is the same as in a currency war. The first country to impose tariffs gets a short-term advantage, but retaliation is not long in coming and the initial advantage is eliminated as trading partners impose tariffs in response.

Despite the illusion of short-term advantage, in the long-run everyone is worse off. The original condition of too much debt and too little growth never goes away.

Finally, tensions rise, rival blocs are formed and a shooting war begins. The shooting wars often have a not-so-hidden economic grievance or rationale behind them.

The sequence in the early 20th century began with a currency war that started in Weimar Germany with a hyperinflation (1921–23) and then extended through a French devaluation (1925), a U.K. devaluation (1931), a U.S. devaluation (1933) and another French/U.K. devaluation (1936).

Meanwhile, a global trade war emerged after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs (1930) and comparable tariffs of trading partners of the U.S.

Finally, a shooting war progressed with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria (1931), the Japanese invasion of Beijing and China (1937), the German invasion of Poland (1939) and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (1941).

Eventually, the world was engulfed in the flames of World War II, and the international monetary system came to a complete collapse until the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944.

Is this pattern repressing itself today?

Sadly, the answer appears to be yes. The new currency war began in January 2010 with efforts of the Obama administration to promote U.S. growth with a weak dollar. By August 2011, the U.S. dollar reached an all-time low on the Fed’s broad real index.

Other nations retaliated, and the period of the “cheap dollar” was followed by the “cheap euro” and “cheap yuan” after 2012.

Once again, currency wars proved to be a dead end.

Now the trade wars are well underway. They may be set to resume once the current “truce” between the U.S. and China expires on March 1. If no deal is reached, massive new tariffs will likely take effect.

But the biggest question now is if a shooting war will follow.

There’s little doubt that the most dangerous place in the world today in terms of potential war has been the South China Sea.

I have written frequently about possible confrontations between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea. International law recognizes claims of six separate nations to parts of that sea, and the U.S. is treaty partners with one of them (the Philippines).

China claims the entire sea (except for a narrow shoreline stretch near each surrounding country). China is claiming control based on ancient imperial arrangements and argues that the West and its South Asian allies “stole” the territory from them.

China has aggressively built up man-made islands in the area by dredging sand onto rocks and atolls. These islands are then being fortified with airstrips, anti-aircraft weapons and surveillance technology.

But both the ancient claims and the theft narrative are open to serious dispute. The U.S. and the other nations involved reject those claims and insist on rights of passage and free navigation and sharing of natural resources such as oil, natural gas, undersea mining and seafood among others.

The U.S. and its allies, including Japan and the U.K., have sent naval vessels to cruise waters claimed by China and to uphold rights of passage and their status as open waters.

But the South China Sea is not the only body of water where the conflicts and risks exist.

An even greater potential conflict lies in the Strait of Taiwan, which separates the island of Formosa from the mainland of Red China. China claims Taiwan as a “breakaway province” and part of China. The Taiwanese government claims that it is the lawful government of all of China, although there is a strong independence movement there also.

Two U.S. warships recently passed through the strait as a reaffirmation of rights of free passage and a show of support for Taiwan.

China regards the passage of U.S. vessels as highly provocative and has threatened to block such transits with force. The South China Sea is a problem, but the Taiwan Strait is viewed in existential terms by China.

The entire situation is like a powder keg waiting for the match to light it. The risks include not only intentional combat but accidental shootings and collisions, which are not uncommon at sea, especially when two vessels are shadowing each other.

In fact, the greatest risk might not be an outright attack by either side but an accident or miscommunication that escalates into a firefight. We cannot avoid the real possibility that conflicting naval activities in both bodies of water will result in a violent incident or even war. And once an incident occurs, it could set off a chain of escalation that could result in open warfare.

Trump is not someone to back down when it comes to American interests around the world, and Chinese leadership does not want to appear weak before the U.S.

That’s especially true at a time of great economic uncertainty. Communist Party leadership is desperate to maintain the support of the people, or else it risks losing the “mandate of heaven.”

China does not want war at this time. But diverting the people’s attention away from domestic problems toward a foreign foe is an old trick leaders use to unite the people in times of uncertainty. Rallying the people around the flag is a tried and true method to garner support.

If China’s leadership decides that the risk of losing legitimacy at home outweighs the risk of conflict with the United States, the likelihood of war rises dramatically.

I’m not predicting it, but wars have started over less. Currency wars, trade wars, finally shooting wars. We’re currently two-thirds of the way there.

And as Mick Jagger sang, a U.S.-China shooting war is “just a shot away.”

Regards,

Jim Rickards
via The Daily Reckoning email

 

News and Commentary

Gold hits eight-month peak on U.S.-China trade woes (CNBC.com)

Gold ends at highest since June, up a third straight session (MarketWatch.com)

Gold Hits 8-Month Highs as Fed Decision Looms (Investing.com)

Palladium to fall behind gold but leave platinum in the dust: Reuters poll (Reuters.com)

May Wins Backing to Reopen Brexit Deal as EU Prepares to Dig In (Bloomberg.com)

Iron Ore Rockets as Vale’s Supply Disruption Convulses Market (Bloomberg.com)


Source: WGC via Marketwatch

Here’s Why Bitcoin Isn’t The Next Gold, In One Chart (MarketWatch.com)

After Long Slump, ‘This Could Be Gold’s Year’ (CNBC.com)

Venezuela Has 20 Tons of Gold Ready to Ship. Address Unknown (Bloomberg.com)

This Breakout Move In Gold & Silver Is Real (KingWorldNews.com)

PG&E Files For Bankruptcy Protection With $50 Billion In Debt (IndiaTimes.com)

Theresa May Postpones Her Moment of Brexit Reckoning (Bloomberg.com)

Listen on iTunes, Blubrry & SoundCloud  & watch on YouTube above

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

29 Jan: USD 1,308.35, GBP 994.48 & EUR 1,143.24 per ounce
28 Jan: USD 1,301.00, GBP 987.98 & EUR 1,139.81 per ounce
25 Jan: USD 1,282.95, GBP 981.33 & EUR 1,132.08 per ounce
24 Jan: USD 1,279.75, GBP 981.70 & EUR 1,128.36 per ounce
23 Jan: USD 1,284.90, GBP 990.14 & EUR 1,131.74 per ounce
22 Jan: USD 1,284.75, GBP 994.14 & EUR 1,130.58 per ounce
21 Jan: USD 1,278.70, GBP 995.08 & EUR 1,124.11 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

29 Jan: USD 15.85, GBP 12.05 & EUR 13.87 per ounce
28 Jan: USD 15.68, GBP 11.93 & EUR 13.75 per ounce
25 Jan: USD 15.37, GBP 11.74 & EUR 13.55 per ounce
24 Jan: USD 15.30, GBP 11.75 & EUR 13.48 per ounce
23 Jan: USD 15.38, GBP 11.80 & EUR 13.54 per ounce
22 Jan: USD 15.26, GBP 11.84 & EUR 13.44 per ounce
21 Jan: USD 15.26, GBP 11.86 & EUR 13.42 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Buy Bitcoin or Gold? Bitcoin Buyers Investing In Gold In 2019
– Gold Consolidates Above $1,300 After 1.2% Gain Last Week
– Gold Bullion Will Protect From Politicians, Brexit and Increasing Market Volatility In 2019
– Brexit – The Pin That Bursts London Property Bubble
– Davos: David Attenborough Warns We Are Damaging The World ‘Beyond Repair’
– Gold May Return 25% In 2019 Given Brexit, Trump and Other Risks – IG TV Interview GoldCore
– Brexit, EU, Germany, China and Yellow Vests In 2019 – Something Wicked This Way Comes
– Three Reasons Gold May Embark On An Extended Rally
– Political Turmoil in UK & US Sees Gold Hit 2 Week High
– Gold Holds Steady Over €1,100/oz – Increased Possibility Of A Disorderly Brexit
– Turbulence and Brexit Make Safer Options Like Gold and Cash Essential
– Where Will The “Pending” Financial Crisis Originate?
– Gold and Silver Prices To Rise To $1,650 and $30 By 2020? Video Update

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
We have been noticing this as well: gold and silver are less susceptible to usual smashes.  The geopolitical climate strongly favours gold/silver.
(courtesy KingworldNews/James Turk/GATA)

At KWN, GoldMoney’s Turk tells monetary metals investors: Enjoy the ride!

 Section: 

12:44p ET Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder James Turk, interviewed today by King World News, says things are very different lately in the monetary metals market, with prices less susceptible to the usual smashes and geopolitical factors strongly favoring gold and silver.

The current rally is real, Turk says, and he invites monetary metals investors to “enjoy the ride” even though they seem intimidated by the classic “wall of worry.”

Turk’s interview is excerpted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-this-breakout-move-in-gold-silver-i…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Even though gold and silver metals and stocks are manipulated and technical analysis is of no use, Craig Hemke states that some technical signals are indicating a rise for the mining companies

(courtesy Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Technical signals for gold and the mining shares

 Section: 

4:40p ET Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Manipulated as the gold market is, Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report writes today at Sprott Money, technical analysis of it still matters insofar as fund managers ignorant of the manipulation still trade in reaction to technical signals.

Hemke adds that technical analysis and other factors suggest a couple of “memorable” years ahead for gold and silver investors, and he details some of them in commentary headlined “Technical Signals for Gold and the Mining Shares” here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/technical-signals-for-gold-and-the-mini…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc





iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

Mysterious Russian plane removes 20 tonnes of gold from Venezuela’s vaults.
(courtesy zerohedge/)

Maduro “Open To Talks” As 20 Tons Of Gold Mysteriously Disappears From Venezuela’s Vaults

It’s probably just a coincidence.

One day after a Russian official warned that Venezuela would struggle to meet its financial obligations to Moscow under a $3.15 billion debt-rescheduling deal, Bloomberg is reporting that a mysterious Russian Boeing 777 had landed in Caracas on Tuesday and ferried away 20 tonnes of gold – equivalent to roughly 20% of the country’s holdings of the shiny metal – to an unknown location with little explanation. The story cited a “bombshell tweet” sent by Venezuelan lawmaker Jose Guerra, a “former central bank economist who remains in touch with old colleagues there”, and the “welter of social media speculation” that followed (though Guerra provided no evidence).

To be sure, many outlandish claims have been made in the week since opposition leader Juan Guaido declared himself the legitimate democratically-elected leader of what was once Latin America’s wealthiest nation – creating the biggest threat to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s rule since the socialist dictator took office in 2013.

Moving the 20 tonnes of gold bars, worth some $840 million, occurred shortly after the UK denied the Maduro regime’s request to retrieve some $1.2 billion in gold being kept in the vaults of the Bank of England.

And with the country owing billions of dollars to Russia and China (not to mention the Venezuela’s long-suffering bondholders), the story’s implication is clear: was this collateral paid to Russian President Vladimir Putin?

On Monday, a plane belonging to Nordwind Airlines, a popular Russian charter operator based in Moscow, landed at the international airport near Caracas,according to flight tracking website FlightRadar24. A Nordwind spokesman declined to comment Wednesday on the purpose of the flight.

While Finance Minister Simon Zerpa declined to comment on the nation’s gold, he said there was no Russian plane at Simon Bolivar International Airport: “I’m going to start bringing Russian and Turkish airplanes every week so everybody gets scared,” he said.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry also had no information about the charter jet, spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a message Wednesday. There are no plans to evacuate Russians from Venezuela, she said.

According to BBG, Venezuela has been trying for years to increase its gold reserves via mining. The state gold processor Minerven melts ore into gold bars which are transported by the military (which controls the mining) to the central bank.

The US announced sanctions against the Maduro regime earlier this week, including restrictions on buying the country’s oil, to try and starve his regime of money, while opening access to Venezuelan assets frozen in the US to Guaido to try and help him cement his control of the country.

By Wednesday morning, the regime was feeling pressure to capitulate and begin negotiations, with Maduro reportedly saying he’d be “open to talks” with the opposition, though, as the New York Times noted, ” it is “not clear if the comments were a genuine offer for negotiations with the opposition or a bid to buy time for his embattled government.”

“I am ready to sit down at the negotiating table with the opposition so that we could talk about what benefits Venezuela,” Mr. Maduro said.

Maduro listed several potential mediators for the talks, including Mexico, Uruguay, Bolivia, Russia, the Vatican and other European governments that had encouraged a dialogue. The purported capitulation comes after Maduro had threatened to use the country’s Supreme Court to impose a travel ban on Guaido in what appeared to be an attempt to intimidate him.

President Trump welcomed Maduro’s announcement, while reiterating a warning to US citizens not to travel to Venezuela.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Maduro willing to negotiate with opposition in Venezuela following U.S. sanctions and the cutting off of oil revenues. Guaido is being targeted by Venezuelan Supreme Court. Massive protest expected today. Americans should not travel to Venezuela until further notice.

Still, he has rejected international calls for new elections, which could soon lead to several Western European nations joining the ranks of countries recognizing Guaido as the country’s legitimate ruler.

end
An interesting commentary re the refusal of London to hand Venezuela’s gold back to the country!
(courtesy RT)

Refusal to hand over Venezuelan gold means end of Britain as a financial center – Prof. Wolff

Published time: 30 Jan, 2019 13:01

The freezing of Venezuelan gold by the Bank of England is a signal to all countries out of step with US interests to withdraw their money, according to economist and co- founder of Democracy at Work, Professor Richard Wolff.

He told RT America that Britain and its central bank have shown themselves to be “under the thumb of the United States.”

“That is a signal to every country that has or may have difficulties with the US, [that they had] better get their money out of England and out of London because it’s not the safe place as it once was,” he said.

The Bank of England is currently withholding $1.2 billion in gold from Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s government, but is being urged by Washington to release it to the chairman of the National Assembly, Juan Guaido. Last week, the US backed Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela, after he declared himself interim president.

According to Professor Wolff, control of Venezuela’s oil has always been an urgent issue for Washington.

He also said that the collapse of Britain as a global power, which was accelerated by Brexit, is now about to take another step.

“One of the few things left for Britain is to be the financial center that London has been for so long. And one of the ways you stay a financial center is if you don’t play games with other people’s money,” he said.

The economist added that it is for the Venezuelans who put the money into the care of the British bank to determine what is done with it, and not for the Bank of England.

“You can be sure that every government in the world is going to rethink putting any money in London, as they used to do, when they are watching this political manipulation with the money that they entrusted to the British. It is very dangerous for the world but for Britain particularly,” said Wolff.

He explained: “What the British are showing is that they can’t continue apparently to be the neutral place where you can safely put your money.

-END-

GOLD TRADING/THIS MORNING

 

 

 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.7170/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7295   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 18.68 PTS OR 0.72%

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 111.17 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 108.10  POINTS OR 0.52%

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 95.76/Euro RISES TO 1.1437

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.43/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.82 and Brent: 61.91

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.19%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.61% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.25%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.42: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.94

3k Gold at $1312.95 silver at:15.91   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 16/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.89

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.43 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9971 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1403 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.20%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.72% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.04%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.2712

 

Global Markets Rise Ahead Of Fed And Trade Talks As Gold Hits 8 Month High

World stocks inched up and the dollar steadied on Wednesday after Apple failed to disappoint investors and reported earnings, meeting Wall Street’s lowered expectations, and sending its stock higher in a muted session as investors braced for a barrage of catalysts, from US-China trade talks and the Fed meeting to an avalanche of corporate earnings. The pound halted a two-day decline and U.K. shares rallied after lawmakers voted to renegotiate Brexit.

The MSCI world equity index was fractionally in the green following gains in Asia overnight and a muted start to trading in Europe. The pan-European STOXX 600 benchmark index was flat.

US equity futures all rose, supported by with Apple shares which extending gains in pre-market trading after first-quarter earnings reassured investors that the worst may be past, although it remains very much unclear if Apple can pivot from a cell phone to a “services” company, especially with services revenue growth slowing sharply. In any case, investors were relieved that there was no more bad news after the company shocked financial markets at the start of this month with a revenue warning that sparked fears that U.S.-China trade tensions were taking a toll on the tech sector.

“Apple earnings delivered enough for investors to come back on board,” said Markets.com analyst Neil Wilson. “Although Apple still faces big questions like pricing structure, upgrade cycles, FX headwinds and weaker Chinese demand, we did get a positive answer to the key question on whether services margins can help rerate the stock higher.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was mixed after data showing euro-area economic confidence extended its worst losing streak in a decade, ahead of Sino-U.S. trade talks and a closely watched Fed announcement in which Chair Powell is likely to disappoint markets. The UK’s FTSE 100 traded higher by 0.9%, climbing for a second day and outperforming continental bourses, with CAC also rising 0.5%; DAX trades lower by 0.4%. Investors fretted about the possibility of a “no-deal” British departure from the European Union after UK lawmakers instructed Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday to reopen the treaty she had negotiated with Brussels to replace a controversial Irish border arrangement.

Goldman Sachs upped its “no-deal” Brexit probability to 15 percent from 10 percent, and cut the chance of Brexit not happening at all to 35 percent from 40 percent according to Reuters. “Tuesday’s Brexit amendments offered little additional clarity to anyone,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.

Earlier in the session, Stocks in Japan and China slid, while they increased in South Korea, Australia and Hong Kong. The yuan advanced to the highest since July on hopes for the U.S.-China trade talks getting underway in Washington. Growing fears that central banks are preparing to reflate “whatever it takes”, helped send gold to an eight-month high, underscoring lingering investor caution.

While Apple CEO Tim Cook said trade tensions between the United States and China were easing, lifting the mood before another round of official talks on Wednesday in Washington, that may prove another unreasonably optimistic take. The two sides are meeting next door to the White House in the highest-level talks since U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed a 90-day truce in their trade war in December.

“I expect that the Washington summit will help pave the way for an extension of the trade truce. This is also what markets expect and a failure of the talks is not priced in at all,” said Giuseppe Sersale, fund manager at Anthilia Capital. Which is also why the risk of downside following the trade talks is far greater.

Elsewhere, following lackluster corporate earnings in January, all eyes will be on tech giants including Facebook and Microsoft when they report today. That will be the backdrop for the Fed’s policy decision and its assessment of the U.S. economy, while the arrival of Chinese negotiators in Washington for talks to resolve the ongoing trade dispute adds another layer of complexity.

Expectations from Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rates review are that policymakers will reinforce their recent dovish stance, given signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. “We believe the Fed is likely to show the flexibility markets are seeking at its upcoming meeting, as it balances still solid domestic economic growth against slower global growth and less significant, but persistent, domestic risks,” said John Lynch, Chief Investment Strategist at LPL Financial.

And yet nobody really has any clue what happens next: “Such is the extent of uncertainty across global markets at the moment that investor sentiment is struggling to gain any meaningful traction,” Simon Ballard, a macro strategist at First Abu Dhabi Bank, said in a note. “The overarching veil of caution suggests that near-term positive momentum potential will likely remain limited. It is still very much global trade and the global rates outlook that sit at the heart of investor focus.”

European bond markets little changed across core and periphery, trading in tight ranges, as are USTs. BTPs shrug off talk of early Italian election, with 5-and 10-year auction well-received. Bloomberg USD index also steady, with Aussie dollar leading G-10 gainers, followed by the pound. Swedish krona edges lower after soft consumer confidence data. In commodities, WTI and Brent both up ~0.3%, metals trading higher across the board

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was confined to a narrow range as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve policy decision and U.S.-China trade talks. The pound climbed above $1.31 as bias remained to fade dips, while the Aussie led gains versus its G-10 peers as inflation data beat forecasts. Emerging-market currencies climbed to a fresh seven-month high: the Australian dollar surged 0.5 percent as inflation topped forecasts, while the Chinese yuan reached a six-month high in the offshore market before the trade talks. Elsewhere, the Mexican peso declined as Fitch Ratings cut the debt of state oil company PEMEX to one notch above junk.

Iron ore surged after Brazil’s Vale SA, the world’s largest producer, outlined plans to cut output after a deadly dam breach. Iron ore is now up nearly 30% since November.

WTI crude gained as traders assessed the impact of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, a major exporter. Brent (+0.6%) and WTI (+0.7%) prices are firmer as the complex reacts to the smaller than expected build in yesterday’s API Crude Stocks alongside reports that Saudi Arabia are planning on further oil production cuts and exports next month; additionally, believing that SPR releases are a solution to the US’s Venezuela oil shortage problem. Follows sanctions announced on Monday which aim to stop the proceeds from PDVSA’s crude exports of around 500,00 BPD to the US.

In addition to the above, expected data include mortgage applications and pending home sales. Alibaba, AT&T, ADP, Boeing, McDonald’s, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Facebook, Mondelez, Qualcomm and Visa are among the slew of companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,645.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.08% to 357.51
  • MXAP up 0.1% to 154.52
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 504.93
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 20,556.54
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,550.76
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 27,642.85
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 2,575.58
  • Sensex down 0.06% to 35,570.42
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,886.70
  • Kospi up 1.1% to 2,206.20
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 0.198%
  • Euro down 0.04% to $1.1428
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.1 bps to 2.277%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 1.254%
  • Brent futures up 0.6% to $61.68/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,313.36
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.78

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.K. PM Theresa May promised to renegotiate the most contentious part of her Brexit deal after it was rejected by Parliament. She will now head to Brussels with the threat of economic chaos still looming over her country; The Irish government rejected any softening of the so-called backstop
  • Despite the best efforts of central bankers, investors are betting the next phase of European monetary policy will look a lot like the last one; market expectations for the peak rate in this cycle are being slashed, and the implied timing for a first hike since 2011 is being pushed out further by the day
  • Iron ore markets were convulsed after Brazil’s Vale outlined plans to cut output after a deadly dam breach. Prices surged, with futures rallying more than 9%
  • Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini is facing pressure to force an early election this year from lieutenants frustrated by dealing with an unruly coalition partner
  • Jerome Powell will debut the Fed’s latest communications strategy — a press conference eight times a year — by emphasizing patience in raising interest rates, a message the chairman struggled to deliver in December
  • From Hong Kong to Japan, exports data for December showed a marked downturn as supply-chain disruptions triggered by U.S.-China tensions and a cyclical slowdown in the world economy, led by China, hit the trade-reliant region
  • Brexit will probably split BOE policy makers on how to respond
  • U.S. and China are sitting down Wednesday for the first of two days of talks aimed at finding a solution to a trade war. Administration officials and other people familiar with the state of play say the two sides remain far apart
  • Several senior members of Matteo Salvini’s League are urging him to capitalize on a growing lead in opinion polls to ditch the anti-establishment Five Star Movement
  • A lack of clarity surrounding the U.K.’s departure from the EU pushed confidence among British employers this month to levels last seen in the wake of the Brexit vote
  • Average daily foreign-exchange turnover in the U.K. dropped to $2.6t in October 2018, a 4% fall from the record high of $2.7t in April 2018, according to Bank of England data. In North America, daily volume dropped 0.1% to $995b

Asian stocks traded indecisively with the region tentative heading into this week’s key risk events and as participants also digested better than expected Apple results, which only provided brief support to US equity futures after-hours. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) were both subdued although strength across commodities just about kept the Australian benchmark afloat, while Tokyo stocks were weighed by currency effects and uninspiring corporate updates. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) declined at the open amid broad weakness in the region and with China Life Insurance shares heavily pressured after it flagged a 50%-70% drop in FY net, although Chinese markets then rebounded off lows amid a non-committal tone ahead of the looming US-China trade talks and after the PBoC injected liquidity for the 1st time in 8 days. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful with prices stuck to within this week’s tight range amid the indecision seen across the region and with an unchanged BoJ Rinban announcement largely ignored.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese Firms Slash Profit Forecasts, Fueling Slowdown Fears
  • JPMorgan Names Filippo Gori as Deputy CEO for Asia Pacific
  • Malaysia Lets Goldman Decide How Much of $7.5b Bank Wants to Pay
  • Hong Kong Dollar Spikes as Pre-Holiday Liquidity Tightness Seen
  • Calm Has Descended on Asian Stocks Ahead of Fed, Trade Talks

Major European equities have been indecisive [Euro Stoxx 50 U/C] taking lead from the indecisive trade seen overnight ahead of today’s FOMC rate decision and press conference. Benefitting from sterling effects the FTSE 100 (+1.2%) is the outperforming index, with Burberry (+2.5%) in the green in sympathy with LVMH (+6.3%) after their earnings; and stating they are cautiously confident regarding 2019. Other luxury names such as Kering (+3.4%), Christian Dior (+4.0%) and Pandora (+2.0%) are also up in sympathy with LVMH. Sectors are mixed with outperformance in consumer discretionaries and some underperformance in telecom names. Other notable movers include Atos (+8.1%) who, following their earnings and 2019 guidance confirmation, are at the top of the Stoxx 600. Elsewhere, Novartis (-1.2%) are down following results, where the Co. missed on Q4 sales and operating income, as are Siemens (-1.5%) after their Q1 revenue came in just under expectations; Co. also stating they have made no further concessions on the Alstom (-0.5%) merger and will not pursue it at all costs.

Top European News

  • Siemens CEO Fires Broadside Against EU With Rail Deal on Brink
  • Atos to Hand Out Worldline Shares, Paving Way for More Deals
  • Santander Seeks to Move Past Orcel Fiasco With New Plan
  • U.K. Lending Slows as Brexit Uncertainty Hangs Over Outlook
  • Why Irish Reckon May Still Boxed In on the Brexit Backstop

In FX, the DXY index and Greenback overall looking to the Fed for more direction, as the DXY meanders between 95.875-682.

  • AUD – Firmer than expected Australian Q4 CPI data has helped to revive a flagging Aud/Usd, with the pair back up on the 0.7200 handle and close to daily chart resistance around 0.7207, while Aud/Nzd has rebounded firmly over 1.0500, as the Kiwi continues to meet offers around 0.6850 vs the Usd.
  • GBP – The next best G10 currency, as initial post-UK Parliamentary Brexit vote downside is reversed to an extent in Cable and Eur/Gbp, with the former reclaiming 1.3100+ status and perhaps deriving some respite from a bounce ahead of the 200 DMA (circa 1.3055). Meanwhile, the cross has recoiled relatively sharply from fresh peaks just shy of 0.8760 towards 0.8715, and perhaps the bulk of noted month end buying interest has now been transacted.
  • CAD – Another major ‘outperformer’, or at least holding a firmer line vs its US counterpart within a 1.3235-85 range, and still cushioned by the recuperation in crude prices. Ahead, perhaps a little independent impetus via Canadian average weekly earnings data, but in truth this pales against the sheer volume of US releases on tap, and of course the impending FOMC.
  • JPY/EUR – Both flat to a tad softer vs the Dollar, and very confined in the run up to the Fed, as Usd/Jpy continues oscillate between 109.00-50 amidst undulations in broad risk sentiment, and the single currency remains entrenched in a 1.1400-50 band (with the topside also ‘protected’ by the 200 DMA around 1.1444).
  • CHF/SEK – The Franc and Krona have extended recent losses/underperformance/retracements, with the Chf perhaps undermined by weaker than forecast Swiss KoF and ZEW sentiment surveys, while the Sek will not have been helped by declines in consumer and industrial confidence that will merely keep the Riksbank on the back-burner. Usd/Chf is hovering above 0.9950 and Eur/Sek just below 10.3900.

In commodities, Brent (+0.6%) and WTI (+0.7%) prices are firmer as the complex reacts to the smaller than expected build in yesterday’s API Crude Stocks alongside reports that Saudi Arabia are planning on further oil production cuts and exports next month; additionally, believing that SPR releases are a solution to the US’s Venezuela oil shortage problem. Follows sanctions announced on Monday which aim to stop the proceeds from PDVSA’s crude exports of around 500,00 BPD to the US. Gold (+0.1%) is trading in the middle of its USD 6/oz range, on a steady dollar ahead of today’s FOMC decision. Elsewhere, Vale’s CEO announced they will take up to 10% of the Co’s output offline to decommission 10 dams following Friday’s dam burst.

Looking at today’s calendar, today’s Fed meeting outcome will no doubt hog much of limelight while the data highlights in the US this afternoon include the January ADP employment change report (183k expected) and December pending home sales (+0.5% mom expected). In Europe this morning we’re kicking off with the December import price index reading in Germany followed by December consumer spending data in France, December money and credit aggregates data in the UK and then January confidence indicators for the Euro Area. Today is also the day that trade talks are due to resume between the US and China with Vice Premier Liu Ge meeting with US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin in Washington. Finally, it’s a busy day for earnings with reports due from Microsoft, Facebook, Alibaba, Visa, AT&T, Novartis, Boeing and McDonald’s.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.7%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 181,000, prior 271,000
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.5%, prior -0.7%; YoY, est. -7.0%, prior -7.7%
  • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision
  • U.S. BEA Working With Census, OMB on Economic-Data Schedule

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Dublin where there will be lots of eyebrows raised this morning after the events in U.K. parliament last night. However if you think Brexit negotiations are currently in a deep freeze then spare a thought for those in the Midwest of the US today who will face a once in a generation polar vortex which will bring temperatures down to -53C (-64F). Chicago will be even colder than Antarctica and see lows of -27F, with a wind chill factor making that feel closer to -50F. Good luck to all our readers there. Rather worryingly Chicago police say people are being robbed at gunpoint of their coats and those hideously expensive Canada Goose jackets that were two a penny in Davos last week have been especially targeted. The good news is that if you’ve been desperate to pick up a ticket to Hamilton they are reselling at half-price for tonight in Chicago as no-one wants to brave the elements. So for those that don’t mind the cold there’s your opportunity. Don’t wear your Canada Goose jacket out though.

One area where there was a thawing out last night was that U.K. Parliament now have a mandate for a Brexit deal. The problem is that this mandate has already been ruled out by the EU. Nevertheless Brussels have been asking the U.K. what they want for the last two and a half years and finally we have an outline of what they want. Parliament now seems happy to vote for the withdrawal agreement as long as the Irish backstop is removed/amended in a satisfactory manner.

To recap in as brief a way as possible as everyone might be bored by now, the only amendments that passed were a non-binding one (Spelman) that voted against leaving with no-deal and one (Brady) that asked the government to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement to accommodate an alternative arrangement to the Irish backstop. So Mrs May will go to Brussels and try to reopen negotiations on an agreement that the EU have already said before and after last night’s votes that they won’t reopen. Whether diplomacy can work in the background remains to be seen.

All the reaction I’ve seen from the market overnight talks about it in terms of it being a unicorn-like mission with absolutely no chance of success. However stranger things have happened. Maybe I’m being naive but both the EU and the U.K. don’t want there to be a no-deal and both parties are categoric that there can’t be a hard border in Ireland. To me there is scope for negotiations on that basis. However I haven’t heard anyone that agrees with me yet. Indeed DB’s Oli Harvey downgraded Sterling to neutral overnight and overall thinks developments have on balance become more negative. His updated probabilities are; 1) May pivots to a softer Brexit stance via the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship: 15% (previously 40%), 2) Last-minute ratification on the existing deal in the face of no alternatives 50% (previously 30%), 3) Second referendum: 5% (previously 15%), 4) New election: 15% (previously 10%), 5) No deal Brexit: 15% (previously 5%). See the full report here . In market terms Sterling dropped as various soft or delayed Brexit motions failed to pass and closed -0.74% at $1.3066. Overnight in Asia the Pound has consolidated around those levels and as we go to print it’s at $1.3086.

Moving on, we’re now firmly into the business end of the week with the next event for markets to navigate being the first Fed meeting of 2019 tonight. With neither the consensus nor the market pricing in any chance of a hike, most observers will instead be watching to see if the current narrative is maintained. Our US economists expect the most meaningful alteration to the post-meeting statement to be to the forward guidance language. Indeed at the December meeting the statement noted that the “Committee judges that some further gradual increases” in rates would be consistent with the Fed’s dual mandate. Our team believe that this statement is now too strong given intermeeting developments and expect the language to be softened by noting that the Fed expect “further gradual adjustments” in policy will be consistent with the Fed’s objectives. As for Powell’s press conference, our colleagues expect a similar message to be reiterated with the unspoken takeaway likely to be that June is the earliest possible date for another rate increase. The balance sheet topic is likely to be a talking point although our team don’t expect any major announcements.

As you’ll see in the day ahead at the end, we’ve also got a bumper day for earnings scheduled, especially in the tech sector, while trade talks between the US and China also formally get underway again today. Yesterday, in an interview with Fox, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin confirmed that “everything is on the table” in response to a question about Trump potentially dropping all tariffs in return for a good deal. For what it’s worth yesterday our China Chief Economist Zhiwei Zhang published a short update in which he concluded that he expects the two governments to reach a partial trade deal by March 1st, with China making concessions to buy US goods, lower tariffs, and open part of the service sector. Zhiwei believes that the US may stop imposing more tariffs in exchange. That all said, he also expects the Huawei case to extend beyond March.

Back to markets, where despite Mnuchin’s comments, corporate earnings and the tech sector spoilt hopes of a bounce back for US equities with the NASDAQ (-0.81%) at the forefront of declines along with the NYSE FANG index (-2.09%) which plummeted for its fifth daily decline in the last seven sessions. After the bell, however, Apple beat earnings expectations and sparked a rally, with shares up +5.9% in post-market trading. This helped NASDAQ futures retrace most of their declines from yesterday, with front-month contracts up +0.66% overnight. Digging into the results, Apple beat on headline earnings, with EPS at $4.18 versus consensus $4.17, and also on revenue, at $84.3bn versus estimates for $83.9. Notably, revenue fell especially hard in China ($13.2bn from $17.9bn last year), as signaled in the company’s earlier guidance.

Prior to this the S&P 500 closed down -0.15% while the DOW (+0.21%) just about managed to stay onside thanks to some positive large-cap earnings. Better than expected results from 3M (+1.94%) and Pfizer (+3.16%) seemingly helped offset some of the post-Caterpillar global growth concerns however at the other end Allergan (-8.60%) and Harley-Davidson (-5.08%) succumbed to heavy falls after their respective results failed to convince the market. Anecdotally, companies’ guidance is mixed on the macro outlook, with Whirlpool CFO Peters saying “continued economic and trade uncertainty to temper overall demand” while Verizon CFO Ellis anticipates “no major impact at this point on the macro economy or even the shutdown”.

Earlier in Europe, the STOXX 600 gained +0.80% while treasuries and bunds traded close to flat. BTP yields rallied -3.1bps to a new 6-month low. The energy sector outperformed, gaining +0.32% in the US and +1.30% in Europe, as Brent crude oil prices rose +2.32% to mostly retrace Monday’s selloff. The move was driven by comments by Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Al-Falih, who said that he expects to cut oil output further next month and to keep production “well below” the levels agreed by OPEC. New US sanctions on Venezuela’s national oil company also helped ease the supply outlook, while historically cold weather in the US increases demand for heating oil.

Markets in Asia are also trading slightly cautiously overnight with the Nikkei down -0.32% and bourses in China flat as markets await the start of trade talks. The Hang Seng (+0.27%) and Kospi (+0.27%) have however posted modest gains while EM FX is similarly mixed.

In other news, the latest sentiment indicator in the US took on added focus yesterday in light of uncertainty around government policy and recent financial market volatility. Indeed the January consumer confidence reading slumped even more than expected, to 120.2 (vs. 124.0 expected) from a downwardly revised 126.6 in December. The present situations index was broadly flat at 169.6 however the expectations component fell to 87.3 and the lowest since 2016 likely reflecting the government shutdown. There were lots of people on twitter suggesting that the ratio between the two suggests an imminent recession based on historical observations. However if the disparity mostly reflects the shutdown it could easily reverse and nullify the signal. The graph between the two does look worrying though. On the plus side the ratio of respondents describing jobs as “plentiful” versus respondents saying they are “hard to get” reached a new cyclical high, which points to further labour market strength.

Meanwhile the S&P CoreLogic house price index confirmed that prices rose +4.68% yoy in the 20 biggest cities in November and therefore slowing slightly from October. In Europe we only had the French consumer confidence print for January which surprised to the upside at 91 (vs. 88 expected and 86 in December). That marks a decent correction from the protest’s impacted December reading and is in stark contrast to the PMIs in France that we saw last week.

Looking at today’s calendar, this evening’s Fed meeting outcome will no doubt hog much of limelight while the data highlights in the US this afternoon include the January ADP employment change report (183k expected) and December pending home sales (+0.5% mom expected). In Europe this morning we’re kicking off with the December import price index reading in Germany followed by December consumer spending data in France, December money and credit aggregates data in the UK and then January confidence indicators for the Euro Area. Today is also the day that trade talks are due to resume between the US and China with Vice Premier Liu Ge meeting with US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin in Washington. Finally, it’s a busy day for earnings with reports due from Microsoft, Facebook, Alibaba, Visa, AT&T, Novartis, Boeing and McDonald’s.

Market

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 18.68 PTS OR 0.72% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 111.17 POINTS OR 0.40% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 108.10  PTS OR 0.52%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .20%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7170 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 52.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.53 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.7170AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7295: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

 

i)North Korea//USA/Sweden

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

3 C CHINA

i) CHINA/HUAWEI

The fight with the uSA intensifies.  Now Huawei asks its suppliers to move production out of the USA

(courtesy zerohedge)

Huawei Asks Suppliers To Move Production Out Of US: Nikkei

The sweeping indictment against Huawei and its CFO Meng Wanzhou unveiled by Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker on Monday has elevated the feud between the US and the world’s largest telecoms equipment provider (and second largest maker of smartphones) to absurd new heights.

And while officials from Huawei and Beijing have denounced the charges as anti-competitive and “politically motivated”, Huawei is apparently already bracing for the other shoe to drop: According to a report by Nikkei, the tech giant has asked suppliers to consider moving some of their production outside the US in case the Congress of the DOJ adopt a ban on American-made parts being sold to the chipmaker. With the memory of the near-demise of ZTE still fresh in its memory, the company has made the request based on the expectation that an order of a full-scale ban on semiconductors and other critical equipment by President Trump is imminent.

Huawei

The companies asked including Taiwan’s ASE Technology Holding, King Yuan Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductors, among others.

In a bid to minimize this risk, Huawei has informed suppliers such as Taiwan’s ASE Technology Holding and King Yuan Electronics, its top chip packaging and testing providers, that it wants to relocate most production to sites in mainland China, industry sources told the Nikkei Asian Review.

Huawei has also talked with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, about moving some chip production to a site in the Chinese city of Nanjing, sources told Nikkei.

Notably, Huawei shares many of the same suppliers as Apple Inc. And the uncertainties that have been introduced by the US’s campaign against the telecoms giant have made it virtually impossible for some of these companies to adequately assemble their business plans for the coming year.

Many Asian suppliers hoped that Huawei would be their most valuable customer providing growth for 2019 as the smartphone market matures quickly, but those assumptions now appear riddled with uncertainties, according to supply chain sources familiar with the matter.

[…]

The charges against Huawei and Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou, who was arrested in Canada last month on the request of the U.S., have raised the prospect of further earnings downgrades by suppliers after a raft of reductions due to the slowdown in the global smartphone market.

“We don’t know how to make business plans for 2019 after Huawei’s CFO Meng was arrested,” an industry source told the Nikkei Asian Review. “It brought so many risks and uncertainties.”

A ban on selling to Huawei would be a “blow” to producers of semiconductors and other components: “But there’s very little we could do to change that” they said.

Some suppliers are even looking into the terms of their business interruption insurance to see if it covers “political factors.”

ASE Technology Holding, the world’s biggest chip packaging and testing company, is looking into the terms of its business interruption insurance to see whether they include disruption owing to political factors, according to a source familiar with the matter.

The chairman of iPhone assembler Pegatron, Tung Tzu-hsien, told reporters on Jan. 22: “Over the past year, the impact of international political risks on the global tech industry has been unprecedented. It is the greatest that I can recall.”

“We didn’t have to care so much when we produced notebook computers, smartphones or integrated circuits in the past. But now we have to be extremely careful to comply with local laws in each country to avoid stepping on mines,” Tung said on the sidelines of a tech forum.

Shih Po-jun, an analyst at Taipei-based think tank Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute, said the disruption will only continue.

“The U.S. crackdown on Chinese tech – of which Huawei is the most important representative – will not stop here and is likely to have a snowball effect on other Asian suppliers and on the customer end as well,” Shih said. “For those who rely heavily on Huawei or China for their business, they are subject to higher political risks now.”

Despite the Trump administration’s insistence that the indictment won’t affect trade talks with China, every analyst quoted by Nikkei said they don’t see how that’s possible.

“Any relief for the Chinese national champion will likely come at a steep price, and the issue seems set to take a central role in the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks,” Gavekal Research tech analyst Dan Wang said in a daily note following the U.S. indictment.

Not only has the US threatened to ban sales of Huawei products and equipment, but a US-backed campaign to convince allies and foreign telecoms firms to push Huawei out of their markets has born fruit in recent months. China’s largest private company, generating revenue of $100 billion in 2018. It is also China’s top employer, with 180,000 workers globally, and insiders say the company is worried about losing its dominance in Europe, where it has received dozens of contracts to build 5G networks.

Earlier on Tuesday, it was reported that Huawei would be arraigned on some of the charges in a Seattle court on Feb. 28, just days before the deadline for US-China trade talks. We imagine suppliers, who are already reeling from Apple’s latest iPhone sales flop, will be watching the proceedings very closely.

end
The FBI arrests a 2nd Chinese National and this guys was found with all of the stolen goods on his computer.  He was ready to bolt to a Chinese national company
this is not good for trade relations.
(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI Arrests 2nd Chinese National For Stealing Trade Secrets From Apple

We imagine there’s nothing that would put a damper on trade talks quite like another indictment accusing a Chinese national of doing the exact thing (corporate espionage and stealing US trade secrets) that senior Trump Administration officials had warned would be deal-breaking for future negotiations.

Yet, on the very day high level trade talks began in Washington, it appears that’s exactly what has happenedDays after the US filed a sweeping indictment against Huawei that included charges its engineers stole trade secrets from T-Mobile (allegations that were also the subject of a civil suit), NBC Bay Area reported that the FBI has arrested another Chinese national working for Apple’s secretive self-driving car project – code-named “Project Titan” – for stealing trade secrets. That’s the second such arrest in six months (readers can find our report on the earlier arrest, which happened in July, here).

Apple

Apple reportedly started investigating the employee, an engineer named Jizhong Chen,when his fellow employees observed him taking photos of their work space. He was later found to be in possession of thousands of files containing proprietary trade secret like diagrams and manuals and schematics. The investigation escalated when Apple learned that Chen had applied for a job at a Chinese autonomous vehicle company. He was arrested the day before he was set to leave for China.

Apple began investigating Jizhong Chen when another employee reported seeing the engineer taking photographs in a sensitive work space, according to a federal criminal complaint unsealed this week.

Chen, according to the complaint, allowed Apple Global Security employees to search his personal computer, where they found thousands of files containing Apple’s intellectual property, including manuals, schematics, and diagrams. Security personnel also found on the computer about a hundred photographs taken inside an Apple building.

Apple learned Chen recently applied for a job at a China-based autonomous vehicle company that is a direct competitor of Apple’s project, according to the complaint. A photo found on Chen’s computer, which Apple provided to the FBI, showed an assembly drawing of an Apple-designed wiring harness for an autonomous vehicle.

Chen was arrested just one day before he was scheduled to fly to China, according to the complaint.

Apple issued only a brief comment on the arrest, and the FBI declined to comment.

“Apple takes confidentiality and the protection of our IP very seriously,” the company said in a statement Tuesday.

“We are working with authorities on this matter and are referring all questions to the FBI.”

The FBI declined to comment on the story.

The report comes shortly after Apple laid off 200 employees from the project.

While arrests like this one are, sadly, nothing new, one can’t help but wonder if China’s brazen theft of US trade secrets from Apple is also a “separate issue” from the trade talks – even though ceasing theft of IP is one of the Trump Administration’s non-negotiable demands for any trade pact?

end

This is interesting:  a one billion USA Chinese financed skyscraper complex in downtown LA mysteriously halts construction.
(courtesy zerohedge)

$1 Billion China-Financed LA Skyscraper Complex Mysteriously Halts Construction

One of the biggest real estate development projects in downtown Los Angeles has suddenly stopped,potentially as a result of the project’s Chinese financing drying up – or an FBI investigation. The LA Times reports that Oceanwide Plaza, a $1 billion condominium/hotel/retail complex across the street from the Staples Center that is expected to be a key part of a revamped Figueroa Street, has stopped construction this month.

The property is being built by Oceanwide Holdings, a Beijing based publicly traded conglomerate that reported revenue of $2.37 billion in 2017. In a statement on Thursday, the company said that the delayis due to a re-capitalization of the project and that work should resume next month.

Obviously, the fact that this is a Chinese-financed project has raised concerns that the construction halt more likely has something to do with Chinese government policies restricting the flow of money out of the country. These capital constraints that were put in place in 2016 sent shockwaves through numerous parts the real estate market in the United States and Canada, as Chinese citizens have looked for a way to get their money out of the country.

At the same time, the FBI is also conducting a corruption probe at LA City Hall that is looking at possible kickbacks involving foreign real estate developers. According to the LA Times, “Federal agents have inquired about Oceanwide and other downtown development projects with foreign investors as they seek evidence of possible crimes including bribery, extortion, money laundering and kickbacks that could involve L.A. city officials and development executives.”

The company responded that “Oceanwide has no comment regarding any investigation-related matters. In an effort to prioritize construction activity, and while we restructure capital for the project, interior construction at Oceanwide Plaza is temporarily on hold.”

The development was already underway and was expected to be finished this year. The three towers were set to house more than 500 luxury condos and are supposed to be 55 stories high. As they stand now, partially completed, they are now sitting open, exposed to the elements.

The general manager of the city Department of Building and Safety, Frank Bush said: “They said they were stopping work on the project at this time, and had no further explanation. It doesn’t have anything to do with any corrections we’ve given them or anything like that. It wasn’t at our direction.”

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

The government uses “project fear” to tell citizens that a Brexit would lead to thousands of deaths and mass hunger

(courtesy zerohedge)

Project Fear Goes To ’11’: Brexit Could Lead To Thousands Of Deaths, Mass Hunger

If you listen to the government tell it, a post-“hard” Brexit Britain will inevitably resemble the post-apocalyptic Australia from “Mad Max”: A post-apocalyptic hellscape where Britons will be forced to battle it out “Thunderdome”-style for access to scare essentials like food, medicine and “guzzoline”.

Sound outlandish? Well, that’s because it probably is. The notion that reverting to WTO rules on trade would cause anything beyond a transient disruption to supply chains is ridiculous on its face. Most of this blatant fearmongering can be attributed to a very effective propaganda campaign we’ve dubbed “Project Fear”. In recent weeks, May’s government has staged traffic jams near would-be border checkpoints and warned that the hit to economic growth will linger for years, if not decades.

Brexit

Yet, out of naivety or shrewdness, Brexiteer MPs have largely ignored these warnings and continued to oppose May’s deal, despite her insistence that it is Britain’s “best and only” option. So far, the EU has refused to reopen negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement, prompting May’s latest attempt to transform a wave of resistance into a surmountable obstacle by winning support for an amendment that she could then pitch to the EU27 as the only workable arrangement. But like her other plans, this too appears to be mired in conflict.

Fearful of the shortages that could lie just around the corner, both warehouses and UK citizens have begun hoarding food, medicine and other supplies. Perhaps realizing that they have pushed the country to the brink of hysteria, PM May’s government on Monday tried to walk back some of the more outrageous claims, assuring citizens that there will be enough to eat in the event of a hard Brexit, though prices on fresh foods could see a temporary spike. The walk back followed another warning from supermarket chains about possible supply shortages if ‘no deal’ goes through.

“The U.K. has a high level of food security based on a wide range of sources, including strong domestic production and imports from other countries,” James Slack told reporters in London on Monday afternoon. “This will continue to be the case whether we leave the EU with our without a deal.”

On the face of it, the statement – in response to a warning from food retailers – is uncontroversial. But the government of the world’s fifth-largest economy having to reassure its citizens they’ll have food is a mark of the atmosphere pervading the nation.

Alas, this wasn’t the only example of fearmongering to circulate in the press so far this week. A study by several UK universities concluded that a ‘no-deal’ Brexit could lead to “thousands more deaths” by 2030, according to Bloomberg. The reason? Get this – rising fruit and vegetable prices, which could lead to a spike in unhealthy eating.

Any deal under which the UK exits the EU will push up prices, cutting the amount of fresh produce people buy, it said.

A no-deal Brexit would have the worst impact, leading to more than 12,000 extra deaths between 2021 and 2030.

The new study, from Imperial College London and the University of Liverpool, used data from the World Health Organization and HM Revenue and Customs to model the impact of Brexit on health.

The models included a free-trading agreement with the EU and third-party countries; a free-trading agreement with the EU; and a no-deal Brexit without a new trade agreement.

All scenarios assumed an increase in trade tariffs and transaction costs – extra costs that the UK will be required to pay on imported goods.

And as if the level of hysteria wasn’t already at a fever pitch, the Associated Press reported that Jews living in the UK are so concerned about Brexit that they’re literally applying for German citizenship, waging that a return to the land where their ancestors were slaughtered would be a solid contingency plan in the event of ‘no deal’.

The German Embassy in London says it has received more than 3,380 citizenship applications since the Brexit referendum in June 2016 under article 116 of the German Constitution, which allows the descendants of people persecuted by the Nazis to regain the citizenship that was removed between 1933 and 1945.

In comparison, only around 20 such requests were made annually in the years before Brexit.

Through it all, May remains stuck between a rock and a hard place. MPs can’t agree on an alternative to her deal, making it impossible for her to try and sell an ‘alternative arrangement’ to the EU, while the EU remains publicly opposed to reopening the Withdrawal Agreement.

That should set everybody’s mind at ease.

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Global warming? NASA scientists now expect global cooling

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Amidst Global Warming Hysteria, NASA Scientists Expect Global Cooling

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Those promoting CO2 as the reason for global warming are hucksters and those taken in by hucksters.

Please consider NASA Sees Climate Cooling Trend Thanks to Low Sun Activity.

“We see a cooling trend,” said Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”

The new data is coming from NASA’s Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry or SABER instrument, which is onboard the space agency’s Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. SABER monitors infrared radiation from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a vital role in the energy output of our thermosphere, the very top level of our atmosphere.

“The thermosphere always cools off during Solar Minimum. It’s one of the most important ways the solar cycle affects our planet,” said Mlynczak, who is the associate principal investigator for SABER.

The new NASA findings are in line with studies released by UC-San Diego and Northumbria University in Great Britain last year, both of which predict a Grand Solar Minimum in coming decades due to low sunspot activity. Both studies predicted sun activity similar to the Maunder Minimum of the mid-17th to early 18th centuries, which coincided to a time known as the Little Ice Age, during which temperatures were much lower than those of today.

If all of this seems as if NASA is contradicting itself, you’re right — sort of. After all, NASA also reported last week that Arctic sea ice was at its sixth lowest level since measuring began. Isn’t that a sure sign of global warming?

All any of this “proves” is that we have, at best, a cursory understanding of Earth’s incredibly complex climate system. So when mainstream media and carbon-credit salesman Al Gore breathlessly warn you that we must do something about climate change, it’s all right to step back, take a deep breath, and realize that we don’t have the knowledge, skill or resources to have much effect on the Earth’s climate.

Incredibly Complex Systems

See the problem? Alarmists take one variable, CO2 that is only a tiny part of extremely long cycles and make projections far into to the future based off it.

When I was in grade school, the alarmists were worried about global cooling. Amusingly, I recall discussing in science class the need to put soot on the arctic ice to melt it to stop the advance of glaciers.

​The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report said we have only 12 years left to save the planet. It triggered the usual frantic and ridiculous reactions.

NBC News offered this gem: “A last-ditch global warming fix? A man-made ‘volcanic’ eruption” to cool the planet.” Its article proclaimed, “Scientists and some environmentalists believe nations might have to mimic volcanic gases as a last-ditch effort to protect Earth from extreme warming.”

Geo-engineering: Ignoring the Consequences

Watts Up With That discusses Geo-Engineering: Ignoring the Consequences.

From 1940 to almost 1980, the average global temperature went down. Political concerns and the alleged scientific consensus focused on global cooling. Alarmists said it could be the end of agriculture and civilization. Journalist Lowell Ponte wrote in his 1976 book, The Cooling.

The problem then was – and still is now – that people are educated in the false philosophy of uniformitarianism: the misguided belief that conditions always were and always will be as they are now, and any natural changes will occur over long periods of time.

Consequently, most people did not understand that the cooling was part of the natural cycle of climate variability, or that changes are often huge and sudden. Just 18,000 years ago we were at the peak of an Ice Age. Then, most of the ice melted and sea levels rose 150 meters (490 feet), because it was warmer for almost all of the last 10,000 years than it is today.

During the cooling “danger,” geo-engineering proposals included:

* building a dam across the Bering Straits to block cold Arctic water, to warm the North Pacific and the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere;

* dumping black soot on the Arctic ice cap to promote melting;

* adding carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere to raise global temperatures.

Taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere,” as advocated by the IPCC in its October 8 news conference, is also foolish. Historic records show that, at about 410 parts per million (ppm), the level of CO2 supposedly in the atmosphere now, we are near the lowest in the last 280 million years. As plants evolved over that time, the average level was 1200 ppm. That is why commercial greenhouses boost CO2 to that level to increase plant growth and yields by a factor of four.

The IPCC has been wrong in every prediction it’s made since 1990. It would be a grave error to use its latest forecasts as the excuse to engage in geo-engineering experiments with the only planet we have.

​Global Warming Errs Badly

Next, please consider Extreme weather not proof of global warming, NASA on global cooling

To understand the great confusion about global warming or climate change, my most lucid guide has been Dr. Richard Lindzen — a former Alfred P. Sloan professor of meteorology at MIT and member of the US National Academy of Sciences — and his now famous lecture for the Global Warming Policy Foundation last October 8.

In just a number of segments of his lecture, Dr. Lindzen crystallized for me why the church of global warming errs so badly in its dogma.

Global warming promoters fostered the popular public perception of the science of climate change as quite simple. It is that here’s one phenomenon to be explained (“global average temperature,” or GAT, which, says Lindzen, is a thoroughly unscientific concept). And there’s one explanation for it: the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

GAT is only one of many important phenomena to measure in the climate system, and CO2 is only one of many factors that influence both GAT and all the other phenomena.

CO2’s role in controlling GAT is at most perhaps 2 percent, yet climate alarmists think of it as the “control knob.”

Most people readily confuse weather (short-term, local-scale temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind, cloudiness, and more) with climate (long-term, large-scale of each) and think weather phenomena are driven by climate phenomena; they aren’t.

Consequently, as Lindzen says, the currently popular narrative concerning this system is this: The climate, a complex multifactor system, can be summarized in just one variable, the globally averaged temperature change, and is primarily controlled by the 1 to 2 percent perturbation in the energy budget due to a single variable — carbon dioxide — among many variables of comparable importance.

Big Chill

Did You Know the Greatest Two-Year Global Cooling Event Just Took Place?

Would it surprise you to learn the greatest global two-year cooling event of the last century just occurred? From February 2016 to February 2018 (the latest month available) global average temperatures dropped 0.56°C. You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era. All the data in this essay come from GISTEMP Team, 2018: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (dataset accessed 2018-04-11 at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). This is the standard source used in most journalistic reporting of global average temperatures.

The 2016-18 Big Chill was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average. February 2018 was colder than February 1998. If someone is tempted to argue that the reason for recent record cooling periods is that global temperatures are getting more volatile, it’s not true. The volatility of monthly global average temperatures since 2000 is only two-thirds what it was from 1880 to 1999.

None of this argues against global warming. The 1950s was the last decade cooler than the previous decade, the next five decades were all warmer on average than the decade before. Two year cooling cycles, even if they set records, are statistical noise compared to the long-term trend.

My point is that statistical cooling outliers garner no media attention. The global average temperature numbers come out monthly. If they show a new hottest year on record, that’s a big story. If they show a big increase over the previous month, or the same month in the previous year, that’s a story. If they represent a sequence of warming months or years, that’s a story. When they show cooling of any sort—and there have been more cooling months than warming months since anthropogenic warming began—there’s no story.

Bombarded With Garbage

Of course you did not know that unless you follow NASA, Real Clear Markets, or Watts Up With That.

Meanwhile, everyone is constantly bombarded with total garbage like Al Gore’s claim Migrant Caravans are Victims of Global Warming.

And of course, the media is fawning all over AOC’s “New Green Deal” hype as she too is a believer the World Will End in 12 Years if we don’t address climate change.

The Guardian and the Intercept are both happy to promote this nonsense as of course the entirety of mainstream media.

Alarm Bells

When I was in grade school we had major alarm bells over global cooling. In high school it was population growth. Then came food shortages followed by peak oil.

Now the crisis du jour is global warming.

It’s always about something!

CO2 Derangement Symptom

Watts Up With That accurately labels global warming hysteria as the CO2 Derangement Syndrome.

That’s an excellent synopsis of the current state of affairs so please give it a good look.

Finally, even if you still believe global warming is a threat, please ponder the notion that governments will not do anything sensible about it.

end

 

7  OIL ISSUES

It now looks like we are having legal piracy in the Caribbean has Venezuela has not paid its docking fees.  Authorities have followed the ConocoPhillips model of seizing vessels for non payment of fees.

(courtesy zerohedge)

How Venezuela Oil Blockade Could Spark Tanker Piracy In Caribbean

President Trump’s newest sanctions attempting to curb some $11 billion of crude exports from Venezuelan state-oil company PDVSA (or Petroleos de Venezuela S.A.) to the United States this year has many world leaders worried about their international impact ranging from rapidly rising oil prices to new stress on debt payments owed by Caracas, but few are watching the potentially volatile waters just off Venezuela in the Caribbean where already long simmering economic and legal tensions between suppliers and PDVSA tankers which aren’t paying their bills could give way to an outright piracy situation as more and more servicing companies seize oil-laden tankers docked in Caribbean island ports until the balance is paid.

Image via US Chamber of Commerce/Bloomberg

An explosive Bloomberg report begins by detailing an increasingly common scenario which sets a precedent on which western nations and firms could expand the US-led economic war on Petroleum of Venezuela:

Laden with 400,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil, the Icaro sits in the azure waters of the Caribbean just off the Dutch island of Curacao. It’s been there more than a month, and it’s not going anywhere until state-owned oil company PDVSA pays its bills.

The Icaro has become an unlikely but telling symbol of Venezuela’s woes. And it shows how even before the U.S. sanctions imposed Monday, PDVSA was facing trouble getting its oil delivered to customers around the globe. That could worsen as the regime looks to offset the loss of its U.S. market.

Companies doing business with PDVSA — from fuel suppliers to mechanics to systems techs to tow-boat operators — often find themselves between a rock and a hard place when they don’t get paid for their services, on the one hand seeking any means possible to obtain payment yet still wanting to stay in business with one of the world’s largest oil producers and exporters. Increasingly they’re getting desperate enough to risk severing their relationship with the Venezuelan oil giant altogether by turning to Caribbean courts to obtain the right to seize oil aboard docked or transiting vessels, a trend given new impetus based on this week’s escalating events.

Now that the White House has called for “peaceful transition of power” away from the Maduro regime, and with companies sensing the likelihood of a coming storm of unrest, civil war, or potential external military intervention, companies are scrambling to secure collateral by force. “You put a lien on a cargo to make sure that when you get a court judgment, there will be something there you can sell to obtain what’s owed to you,” one Curacao-based lawyer working on the Icaro case told Bloomberg. “That might be your only chance to get paid.”

Multiple companies have now followed US company ConocoPhillips’ lead after it won a key victory in Dutch Caribbean courts last year which resulted in recouping a $2 billion arbitration award, according to Bloomberg. Conoco was able to see the extensive litigation through based on having first obtained legal writ to detain 12 Venezuelan oil tankers when they passed through the Caribbean.

The Dutch Caribbean has become ground zero for such aggressive legal methods given that PDVSA operates terminals in Curacao, Bonaire, and Aruba to store and re-export crude oil to the United States and Asia, and at the same time Dutch law and courts have set a low threshold for holding non-paying companies accountable by allowing legal means to go after assets.

As of December 2017, via Bloomberg

Meanwhile PDVSA tankers have tried to avoid the Caribbean islands, something it may now no longer be able to do as the state-run company tries to recoup losses due to the new restriction to the US market by ramping up exports to Asia. “Last year, in the wake of the Conoco spat, only 17 PDVSA vessels discharged in Curacao, compared with 132 in 2017,” according Bloomberg’s numbers.

One of the most alarming sections of the Bloomberg report touches on the question of whether the political chaos in Venezuela could spill over into the Caribbean in the form of “tanker piracy” given “legal justification” by courts and companies anticipating regime change. Bloomberg reports:

For suppliers, seeking court redress isn’t likely to go away anytime soon because some can’t afford to wait for a regime change, said Kurt Barrow, a vice president at IHS Markit. Indeed, suppliers even track PDVSA oil cargoes every two to three weeks to see how close they get to Caribbean territory, said one creditor who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Thus as PDVSA takes increasing risk to weather US sanctions, its tankers will be forced to brush up against creditors seeking to halt transit, as Bloomber notes, “if Venezuela wants to sell more oil to Asia because of the U.S. sanctions, it may need its facility in the Caribbean for storage  exposing it to more seizures.”

And should tankers begin to be seized in large numbers, it will be interesting to see if the Maduro regime begins beefing up security and possibly militarizing the transport ships to protect Venezuela’s lone and now choked economic lifeline.

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA/USA

The USA hands over dollars held at the Fed over to Guaido.  Russia has voiced their concern on this as they state that it is Maduro’s government is the real authority.  Russia lent Venezuela 3 billion dollars. China also has vast interests inside Venezuela after they have lent considerable amounts of money to them.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Admin Hands Venezuela’s US-Housed Bank Accounts Over To Guaido

The Trump Administration has handed control of Venezuela’s bank accounts in the United States to Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido, whom Washington and most Latin American countries have recognized as interim president.

Backing Guaido are the United States, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador and Paraguay, while countries including Russia and China continue to recognize Maduro as Venezuela’s president.

The order to to turn over assets held in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and federally insured banks was signed off on last week by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, according to AFP.

This certification will help Venezuela’s legitimate government safeguard those assets for the benefit of the Venezuelan people,” said State Department spokesman Robert Palladino.

In a Monday interview with CNN in Spanish, Guaido said that Venezuela’s opposition-controlled congress had authorized a measure asking foreign nations to take measures that would ensure Maduro can’t “loot” the country’s roughly $8 billion in foreign reserves. To that end, the Bank of England last week denied Maduro’s request to pull $1.2 billion of gold, which Guaido has asked to be put under his control.

In a statement to British MPs, Sir Alan Duncan said the decision was a matter for the Bank and its governor, Mark Carney, and not the government. But he added:

“It is they who have to make a decision on this, but no doubt when they do so they will take into account there are now a large number of countries across the world questioning the legitimacy of Nicolás Maduro and recognising that of Juan Guaidó.”

Guaidó has already written to Theresa May asking for the funds to be sent to him.

Maduro, meanwhile, has accused the United States of leading an open coup to oust him in order to access the country’s vast oil reserves – the largest in the world. To that end, the US hit Venezuela’s state-owned oil company with sanctions on Monday.

Russian Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak admitted to Russian state news agencies on Tuesday that “there will probably be problems” when it comes to Venezuela’s meeting debt obligations – noting that it owes Russia $3 billion, with repayments twice a year of approximately $100 million each. The next payment is due in March. Russia has vast commercial interests in Venezuela – including the a partnership with the recently sanctioned Petroleos de Venezuela SA.

Hours after Storchak’s comments, however, the Kremlin said that they expect Venezuela to make its next scheduled debt repayment.

According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Moscow views the sanctions as “illegal” and a tool of unfair competition.

On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Fox Business Network that there may be more economic pressure in store for Venezuela.

“We will always look at additional sanctions to make sure we protect the assets of the country for the people of Venezuela,” he said, adding that the United States would work to ensure that medications and other humanitarian goods are still allowed through.

On Monday, Mnuchin described Petroleos de Venezuela as a vehicle for “embezzlement and corruption,”arguing that the sanctions would put further pressure on Maduro to relinquish control.

“The United States is holding accountable those responsible for Venezuela’s tragic decline,” Mnuchin said. “We will continue to use of our diplomatic and economic tools to support interim President Guaidó, the national assembly and the Venezuelan people’s efforts to restore their democracy.”

Embedded video

The Hill

@thehill

Sec. Steve Mnuchin: “If the people in Venezuela want to continue to sell us oil as long as that money goes into blocked accounts we’ll continue to take it. Otherwise we will not be buying it.” http://hill.cm/qIlrhLi

END
Venezuelan army defectors are coordinating with the Trump administration asking for weapons in their freedom fight against Maduro
(courtesy zerohedge)

Venezuelan Army Defectors Coordinate Over WhatsApp; Ask Trump For “Freedom” Weapons

Defectors from Venezuela’s army who are now loyal to self-declared president Juan Guaidó have called on the Trump administration to arm them in what they refer to as their quest for “freedom,” and are strongly opposed to the United States conducting a broad military intervention.

Two former soldiers, Carlos Guillen Martinez and Josue Hidalgo Azuaje, who live outside the country, told CNN they are in contact with hundreds of willing defectors who want US military assistance in their revolt against the Maduro regime.

“As Venezuelan soldiers, we are making a request to the US to support us, in logistical terms, with communication, with weapons, so we can realize Venezuelan freedom,” Guillen Martinez told CNN.

Hidalgo Azuaje said: “We’re not saying that we need only US support, but also Brazil, Colombia, Peru, all brother countries, that are against this dictatorship.”

The appeal came as US national security advisor John Bolton on Sunday warned the Maduro government that violence against Venezuela’s political opposition—or against its leader and self-declared president Juan Guaidó—would be met with stern reprisals.

Bolton also appealed to the Venezuelan military to assist in the smooth transition of power from Maduro to Guaidó, whom the US has recognized as the legitimate head of state.

American officials have repeatedly warned that no options are off the table, in terms of US intervention. –CNN

Over a dozen defectors who appeared in one recent broadcast say that devastating hyperinflation, food scarcity and economic malfeasance have many rank and file soldiers enraged. 

The soldiers say that despite their efforts, they are seeing limited success in inspiring a true military revolt. On January 21 a military unit was arrested after they rose up against the Maduro government.

Martinez and Azuaje showed CNN their WhatsApp chat groups, which they say are connected to “thousands of angry junior officers and soldiers.” They claim to be working to bring several factions of disgruntled soldiers into a cohesive group.

They flatly reject any suggestion of a broader US military intervention in support of Guaidó. “We do not want a foreign government [to] invade our country,” Hidalgo Azuaje said. “If we need an incursion, it has to be by Venezuelan soldiers who really want to free Venezuela.” –CNN

Guaidó has called for demonstrations this week, which the military defectors say they will use as an opportunity to pressure soldiers they know into similarly flipping their allegiance.

There are soldiers in every unit that are willing to rise up in arms,” one soldier told CNN in an underground parking lot in Caracas. “They are preparing themselves and learning from past mistakes. They are waiting for the right moment, so they can hit even harder that people feel it.”

The soldier said that some units have reported missing weapons and ammunition which they suspect may have been stockpiled by opposition supporters to help stoke an uprising.

“Past operations have failed because the higher-ranking officers were against it. They still control every area, and if an uprising happens, it’s swiftly neutralized,” said the man, who acknowledged that the messages sent by defectors outside the country were “very positive” and “give us hope.”

“They are outside Venezuela, but feed our soul. They inspire us and raise the military’s self-esteem.”

Last week

Venezuela’s top military attaché at the Washington D.C. Embassy, Colonel José Luis Silva, broke with the Maduro regime, urging other members of the Venezuelan armed forces to recognize Juan Guaidó as the legitimate interim president, according to the Miami Herald.

“As the Venezuelan defense attaché in the United States, I do not recognize Mr. Nicolás Maduro as president of Venezuela,” Silva told el Nuevo Herald in a telephone interview from Washington.

“My message to all armed forces members, to everyone who carries a gun, is to please let’s not attack the people. We are also part of the people, and we’ve had enough of supporting a government that has betrayed the most basic principles and sold itself to other countries,” he added.

END

YOUR HUMOUR STORY OF THE DAY:

Humpday Humor: How To Know When A Smile Is A Smirk On A Punchable Face

With all the hubbub surrounding the dastardly deeds of the young men who attend Covington Catholic, SHTFplan.com’s Mac Slavo thought it appropriate to advise our readers of the facial expressions that may cause others around you to be triggered.

Sometimes a smile isn’t a smile.

And sometimes, your face may be punchable.

Here’s how you’ll know what to do and when, compliments of the fine folks at the Babylon Bee:

Hopefully that clears things up.

But we’re still a bit confused. Is it OK for Alyssa Milano to smile/smirk? We’re not sure. Maybe if she were wearing a MAGA hat we’d have a better picture of how we should react:

Lexy@PoliticallyRYT

That smirk offends me….

Alyssa Milano

@Alyssa_Milano

Good morning. I’m in DC ready to rumble. Wherever you are, I hope you’re smiling. 🤓

View image on Twitter
END

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1437 UP .0002 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  MIXED 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109;43  UP 0.004 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…DEADLY TO OUR YEN SHORTERS

GBP/USA 1.3097     UP   0.0017  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3225 DOWN .0025 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 1 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1428/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED  DOWN 18.68 POINTS OR 0.72% 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 111.17 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.20%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES MIXED

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 108.10 POINTS OR 0.52%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED MIXED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 111.17 POINTS OR 0.40% 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 18.68 PTS OR 0.72%

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .20%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 108.10 PTS OR 0.52%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1313.60

silver:$15.93

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.72% !!! DOWN 0 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.04 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 95.76 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.67% UP 0    in basis point(s) yield from  TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.25% UP 1   IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.60 DOWN 3     POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 127 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.19%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.39% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1416 DOWN   .0019 or 19 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 109.53 UP  0.107 OR 10 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3059 DOWN.0021( POUND DOWN 21  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar up 76 basis points to 1.3195

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.7165 0N SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7280(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2145

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.01%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield up 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.73 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.05 DOWN 1  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.91 UP  9  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 107.70 OR 1.58%

German Dax : DOWN 37.17 POINTS OR 0.33%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 46.58 POINTS OR 0.95%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 47.60 POINTS OR  0.52%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 69.95 POINTS OR 0.36%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.78 12:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 62.75 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.89  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.16 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 16 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.2645 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.19 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  54.26

 

 

BRENT :  61.71

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.69..DEADLY/

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.05

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1477 ( UP 42    BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.01 DOWN .415 (YEN UP 42   BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.43 DOWN 39 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3107  UP 28 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.2322

the Russian rouble 65.47:   UP .58 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 58 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3149 UP 121 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7165  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7158  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.19%

 

The Dow closed UP 434.90 POINTS OR 1/77%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 154.79 POINTS OR 3.20%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.71 CLOSED DOWN 1.42 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.744%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE FALLING/

 

FROM 2.750

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Stocks, Bonds, Gold Soar As Powell Breaks Curse With Dovish Capitulation

There is only one clip for this…

Jay Powell Broke the curse – after 7 straight losing sessions on FOMC days (the most ever for a Fed Chair), The Fed’s total capitulation today was greeted with a rally (helped dramatically by Apple and Boeing)

  • Oct 3: Powell – “economy is overheating
  • Nov 2: Trump – “not even a little bit happy with my selection of Jay.
  • Jan 30: Powell: – “economy is slowing

Stocks legged up further when Powell said during his presser that he “doesn’t want the balance sheet unwind to cause market turbulence.”

But he tried to reassure:

“We don’t react to most things that happen in the financial markets. … When we see a sustained change in financial conditions, then that’s something that has to play into our thinking.”

But markets knew better – gold and stocks (and bonds) bid as the dollar dumped…

Rate trajectory expectations tumbled and stocks soared on that dovishness…

 

The Dow is up 16% from the day Trump said it’s “tremendous opportunity to buy” (and Mnuchin called the plunge protection team).

Over 50% of the Dow’s gains today came from Apple and Boeing…

 

All the major indices broke above key technical levels today (Dow > 200DMA, S&P and Nasdaq > 100DMA) but were unable to hold them…

 

VIX tumbled along with credit spreads…

 

Treasury yields tumbled after The Fed statement…

 

10Y Yield closed at 2.69% – breaking the 18-day streak of 2.7x% handles…

 

2Y Yields tumbled and are near to generating a ‘death cross’ implying further downside to rates…

 

The yield curve bull-steepened up to 55bps (2s30s)…

 

And we note that TLT just generated a “golden cross” suggesting Bond prices are set to rise further…

 

The dollar puked on the dovishness…

Tumbling to its weakest close since September…

 

Cryptos surged overnight…

 

Which sent yuan surging – not good for Chinese exports – to its strongest against the dollar since July 2018…

 

Commodities are higher across the board as the dollar dumped…

 

Gold soared above $1325 on the back of the biggest 4-day gains since Brexit…

 

WTI surged above $54 today pushing January’s gains near 20% – the best month since April 2015 and best January ever…

 

 

 

 

 

 

Finally, this is what capitulation looks like – The Fed today confirmed the market’s shift from anticipating 50bps of rate-hikes in 2019 to now expecting rate-cuts…

So much for Fed independence – its rescue the market at all costs…

We give the final world to Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff):

“Powell’s finale statement was that the markets wanted clarity on the balance sheet reduction, and that the Fed was now providing it. The truth is that until recently the markets had clarity and did not like what they saw. So it’s not clarity the Fed is providing, but relief! 

 

END

market trading/

FOMC RESULTS:

Dollar Dumps, Curve Steepens, Stocks Soar As Fed Sets Stage For QE4

The doves got everything they wanted – “patient”, “flexible” and a Fed that is positive on the economy? The reaction is consistent – bonds and stocks bid, the dollar offered as Powell sets the stage for an even bigger reversal to save the world...

The dollar is getting hammered…

 

Bond yields are tumbling...

 

The yield curve is bull steepening…

 

And stocks are soaring…

As rate-change expectations for 2019 slump further (to -3.5bps)…and Fed Funds futures pricing in a 50-50 chance of a rate-cut by the end of 2020…

Let’s hope that Powell can stick to the script in the press conference…

END

Here is what the Fed said today:  they surprised on rate hikes and balance sheet unwinds. Get ready for QE4

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“Patient” Fed Capitulates To Market, Surprises With Unexpected Balance Sheet Unwind Adjustment

With a 1% probability of a rate-hike today, all that matters is The Fed’s tone (better be uber dovish) and any language shifts on the balance sheet normalization. And, by the looks of things, the now “patient” Fed capitulated to both Trump and the market:

“In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.”

*  *  *

Since The Fed hiked rates in December, Gold is the clear winner…

But we note that stocks and the market’s perception of The Fed’s dovish/hawkish-ness are joined at the hip…

Somehow, The Fed has got to slowly but surely jawbone its outlook down to the market’s uber-dovish perception without spooking investors that something very serious is going on…

Markets faded from their highs into the Fed Statement:

So, did The Fed deliver?

They appeared to do so – folding entirely to the market –

  • Fed removes reference to further gradual rate increases
  • Fed says it plans to continue with current floor approach
  • Fed says it’s prepared to adjust balance-sheet normalization
  • Fed reiterates federal funds target is primary policy tool
  • Fed says economic activity rising at solid rate, jobs strong
  • Fed says labor market strengthened, unemployment remained low
  • Fed says spending grew strongly, investment moderated
  • Fed says core and headline inflation remain near 2%

So The Fed is saying everything is awesome with the economy but we are panicking out of our rate-hike and balance sheet normalization process because the market shit the bed?

The biggest change, as Goldman previewed:

the FOMC adds “patient” rate outlook amid muted inflation and global developments, and introduces flexibility in balance-sheet normalization.

The Fed removes a statement about “some further gradual increases.”

The line about “balance of risks” is also removed, replaced by a line about policy “patience amid muted inflation and global economic and financial developments.”

As for the one main thing the market was looking for, namely guidance future path of the balance sheet unwind, the Fed folded here too, stating that “the Committee is revising its earlier guidance regarding the conditions under which it could adjust the details of its balance sheet normalization program” and said it wants to maintain “an ample supply of reserves” to ensure that monetary policy is conducted through interest rates, adding that “The committee is prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments.” Here is the full statement:

After extensive deliberations and thorough review of experience to date, the Committee judges that it is appropriate at this time to provide additional information regarding its plans to implement monetary policy over the longer run. Additionally, the Committee is revising its earlier guidance regarding the conditions under which it could adjust the details of its balance sheet normalization program. Accordingly, all participants agreed to the following:

  • The Committee intends to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve’s administered rates, and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required.
  • The Committee continues to view changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. The Committee is prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments. Moreover, the Committee would be prepared to use its full range of tools, including altering the size and composition of its balance sheet, if future economic conditions were to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy than can be achieved solely by reducing the federal funds rate.

In other words, the Fed not only capitulated to the market, but just set the stage for QE4.

Commenting on the Fed’s surprise balance sheet announcement, Futures Firts’s Rishi Misra said that “Operating under a regime with “an ample supply of reserves” – that’s basically saying B/S would remain large! And that they are willing to amend it anyway if required!”

Bear in mind that the S&P 500 Index has declined on the day of each of the seven decisions he’s presided over. According to Bespoke Investment Group, that’s the longest Fed-Day losing streak on record.

*  *  *

Full redline Fed statement below:

d statement below:

 

end

 

Watch Live: Jay Powell Explains How ‘Everything Is Awesome’ Despite Fed’s Fold

With the housing market in freefall, sentiment slumping, earnings expectations plunging, but stocks soaring; Fed Chair Jay Powell better stick to the script today in his press conference – “patient” not “auto-pilot”, “patient” not “auto-pilot”, “patient” not “auto-pilot”, “patient” not “auto-pilot”…

The Fed says economic activity rising at solid rate, jobs strong (labor market strengthened, unemployment remained low), and spending grew strongly’ BUT they are now “patient” on the rate-outlook and “flexible” on balance-sheet normalization.

Good luck explaining that bullshit…

Watch live at 1430ET…

Their official statement;

After extensive deliberations and thorough review of experience to date, the Committee judges that it is appropriate at this time to provide additional information regarding its plans to implement monetary policy over the longer run. Additionally, the Committee is revising its earlier guidance regarding the conditions under which it could adjust the details of its balance sheet normalization program. Accordingly, all participants agreed to the following:

The Committee intends to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve’s administered rates, and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required.

The Committee continues to view changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. The Committee is prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments. Moreover, the Committee would be prepared to use its full range of tools, including altering the size and composition of its balance sheet, if future economic conditions were to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy than can be achieved solely by reducing the federal funds rate.

end

MARKET DATA

Pending homes sales crash 2.2% month over month.  This is a hard data report

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Pending Home Sales Crash Most In 5 Years

Following Case-Shiller’s report that home price gains are the weakest in four years,  Pulte Homes’ CEO admission that 2019 will be a “challenging year,” and existing home sales carnage, Pending Home Sales were expected to very modestly rebound in December.

But it didn’t!

Pending home sales dropped 2.2% MoM (versus a 0.5% expected rise) to the lowest since 2014…

 

This is the 12th month in a row of annual sales declines…and the biggest annual drop in 5 years…

Yet another sign the housing market is struggling amid elevated property prices and borrowing costs – but there’s always hope…

“The stock market correction hurt consumer confidence, record high home prices cut into affordability and mortgage rates were higher in October and November for consumers signing contracts in December,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

But with mortgage rates declining recently and the Fed less likely to raise borrowing costs, “the forecast for home transactions has greatly improved.”

Finally,  the Realtors group forecasts a decline in annual home sales to 5.25 million this year from 5.34 million in 2018, which would mark the first back-to-back drops since the last recession.

end

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Apple stock jumps after the algos jump on them beating muted expectations.  However iphone sales drop 15% and Chinese sales plunge 5 billion dollars.

Another good Bellwether as to growth growth

(courtesy zerohedge)

Apple Jumps After Beating Muted Expectations, Despite 15% Drop In iPhone Sales, $5BN Plunge In China

In the aftermath of two recent shockers, first the company’s surprise announcement that it would stop reporting iPhone, iPad, and Mac unit sales, which correctly led some analysts and investors to believe that something was amiss, followed by the unprecedented Jan 3 stunner, when the company cut guidance only for the first time in 18 years, warning that instead of hitting its $89 billion to $93 billion target it would report earnings of $84 billion, it is safe to say that Wall Street’s expectations for Apple’s fiscal Q2 earnings were not high.

Which is probably why Apple stock appears to be happy that there were no more shockers in the just released earnings, which while a far cry from the company’s historical massive beats, did beat Wall Street sharply lowered expectations modestly, which appears to be sufficient to keep the skeptics at bay.

Specifically, for its holiday, Q2 2018 quarter, Apple reported:

  • Revenue of $84.310BN, while while down from $88.293BN a year ago – the first decline in Apple’s holiday quarter revenue since 2001 – beat Wall Street estimates of $83.97BN
  • EPS of $4.17, just above the consensus exp. of $4.18.

With Q2 revenue barely beating Wall Street estimates, this was the first holiday quarter since 2000 which saw a drop in Apple revenue.

Something else to note: while EPS grew from $3.89 to $4.18 Y/Y this was entirely due to the company’s lower tax rate, with Apple’s tax provision dropping from $7BN a year ago to $3.94BN.

With Apple no longer breaking out unit sales, investors have to rely on revenue numbers, and for iPhones they were disappointing, as expected, as revenue declined 15% Y/Y to $51.982BN from $61.104BN a year ago. At the same time, total revenue from all other products and services grew 19% with services revenue reaching an all-time high of $10.9 billion, up 19 percent over the prior year.

Of course with Apple desperate to pivot to a services driven business, it will have a hard time, because as Bloomberg Intelligence analyst John Butler notes, “Apple really wants you to think in terms of services, but iPhone still drives the bus.”

Apple also reported that revenue from Mac and Wearables, Home and Accessories also reached all-time highs, growing 9% and 33%, respectively, to $7.4BN and $6.7BN while revenue from iPad grew 17 percent.

The full breakdown by product line is as follows:

  • iPhone: $52 billion, down from $61 billion
  • iPad: $6.7 billion, up from $5.8 billion
  • Mac: $7.4 billion, up from $6.8 billion
  • Wearables/Home/Accessories: $7.3 billion, up from $5.5 billion
  • Services: $10.9 billion, up from $9.1 billion

Meanwhile, for those curious just how bad Apple’s China revenues were, the answer is the following: very. Because while Apple reported a modest drop in Japan and European sales, the 26.7% plunge in China revenue fully explained the company’s guidance cut, with the drop in China sales amounting to nearly $5 billion (from $18BN to $13.2BN).

Looking ahead the numbers weren’t much better, with the company now forecasting revenue between $55 billion and $59 billion, on the low end of Wall Street’s forecast of $58.97BN, and more importantly, another Y/Y decline compared to the $61.1BN a year earlier.

Accorcding to Bloomberg’s analyst John Butler, the $57 billion midpoint of Apple’s fiscal 2Q revenue guidance range suggests the company will ship 40.7 million iPhone units in the quarter. This assumes the device makes up 53% of total revenue and that analysts’ average-selling price view of $741 is accurate.

For Q3, Apple also forecast:

  • gross margin between 37 percent and 38 percent
  • operating expenses between $8.5 billion and $8.6 billion
  • other income/(expense) of $300 million
  • tax rate of approximately 17 percent

Tim Cook also highlighted Apple’s device user base is at 1.4 billion, meaning it grew by 100 million since the year-ago quarter.

According to CFO Luca Maestri, Apple returned over $13 billion to investors during the quarter through dividends and share repurchases, with the net cash balance rising to $130 billion at the end of the quarter from $122.6 billion.

Putting all this together, investors were rather happy with the earnings which did not contain any more shocks or surprises, and the stock was modestly higher after hours, rising just enough to fill the gap from the plunge following the Jan 3 guidance cut.

end
For the second time ever Apple cuts its iphone prices
(courtesy zerohedge)

Apple Cuts iPhone Prices For Second Time Ever

After reporting its first-ever dip in holiday season iPhone sales since the pioneering smartphone was introduced 12 years ago, it appears Apple has finally gotten the message that trying to sell $999 smartphones in a world where Samsung and (in foreign markets, at least) Huawei offer models with comparable functionality at a much, much lower price isn’t a savvy business strategy.

Apple will cut iPhone prices for only the second time in the device’s history, Apple CEO Tim Cook told Reuters on Tuesday, adding that the cuts will be restricted to foreign markets where the dollar’s strength has impacted sales (though critics have also questioned the company’s decision to offer $1,000 smartphones beginning with the iPhone X). Cook didn’t specify which markets would be impacted.

Apple

Cook said Apple would reset prices by adjusting for the last year’s worth of dollar appreciation, effectively meaning the company will absorb the foreign exchange impact.

“We’ve decided to go back to (iPhone prices) more commensurate with what our local prices were a year ago, in hopes of helping the sales in those areas,” Cook said.

A few weeks ago, Apple cut its sales guidance for the first time in 16 years, citing slowing sales in China as the biggest factor. Its Tuesday earnings report largely corroborated this, with the company registering a 26.7% plunge in China revenue, with the drop in China sales amounting to nearly $5 billion (from $18BN to $13.2BN).

Apple

During Tuesday’s earnings call, Cook also blamed the impact of the drop in the Turkish lira in the latter half of 2018 for a $700 million drop in sales in Turkey over the prior year.

Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri said the cuts wouldn’t extend to Apple’s services business, which is accounting for a greater share of the company’s revenue (though, despite the beat on Wall Street estimates, services revenue growth had also slowed yoy).

Services

Maestri blamed this slowdown on fluctuating exchange rates, too.

“Roughly 60 percent of our services business is outside the United States, and as you know, the U.S. dollar has appreciated in recent months,” Maestri said. “And in general, we tend not to reprice our services for foreign exchange on a very frequent basis.”

While Apple’s struggling suppliers will likely welcome the cuts as indicating renewed sales optimism, the real question is: Will Apple also consider cutting prices in the US?

end
Simon Black outlines why a wealth tax would be devastating to any economy
(courtesy Simon Black/Sovereign Man)

Even Sweden Abandoned Its Wealth Tax

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

There are over 21 months to go until the 2020 US presidential election.

And every day more and more socialist candidates throw their hat in the ring. They all want to be the one to take down Donald Trump.

But how do you set yourself apart in such a crowded, and outspoken, field?

Bernie Sanders set the bar in 2016 when he championed Medicare for all and free college. But that’s mundane for the latest crop of candidates.

Senators Cory Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand want a federal guaranteed jobs program to hand out cushy government jobs with benefits to anyone who wants one.

Of course, paying for this program (and the many others floated recently) takes a lot of money. Where will that cash come from? You, of course…

Earlier this month New York Mayor Bill de Blasio gave us a preview of what his platform would look like. He said, “Brothers and sisters, there’s plenty of money in the world… it’s just in the wrong hands.”

70%, progressive income tax? Sure, Kamala Harris is in. Same goes for Julian Castro… after all, he notes, the highest tax rate used to be 90%.

Rest assured, if any of these candidates gets the job, massively higher tax rates are coming.

But none of the proposed taxes would be as damaging as the one proposed by Elizabeth “you didn’t build that” Warren…

Warren wants to skip taxing income and go straight to confiscating WEALTH.

After all, the rich have already amassed a lot of wealth, so you may as well take it…

Warren’s plan is to to tax people 2% per year on NET ASSETS over $50 million (and 3% over $1 billion).

The wealth tax would tax people twice – once on their income and again on the assets they own – even cash in the bank.

(It just so happened that her proposal for a wealth tax came out the same day the most expensive property ever sold in the US was acquired by billionaire Ken Griffin for $238 million…)

The wealth tax is a terrible idea.

Even the most oppressive tax regimes in Europe (like Sweden and Denmark, where the top tax bracket is 63% and capital gains are taxed at 43%) have abandoned the wealth tax.

That’s right, even the most ardent, socialist countries realized that a wealth tax doesn’t work. As a matter of fact, nine countries in Europe abandoned the tax.

Why? Because people were leaving in droves to avoid paying the oppressive levy.

In France, 513 wealthy households left the country every year for 35 years because they were tired of paying a wealth tax – taking an estimated $175 billion of assets with them.

But when the wealth leave, they take more than their money… they also stop investing and creating jobs.

So France also lost 400,000 jobs (adding 2% to unemployment)

Even worse, Sweden raised $500 million with their wealth tax, but lost $166 billion from capital leaving the country.

The wealth tax simply does not work. In fact, it hurts any country that imposes one, because…

Rich people are excellent at legally avoiding taxes. And they’re also the most mobile.

We’ve seen what happened in Europe with the wealth tax. And the same thing will happen in America if Elizabeth Warren gets her way.

Even if you agree that Swedish-style taxation is good and that a wealth tax would raise revenue for socialist programs, you’re still missing the most important point…

Politicians always have a plan to RAISE money, but there’s never any talk of execution.

Why should we believe this new tax revenue would be any different than the TRILLIONS the government throws down a black hole?

The war on terror hasn’t ended. The Great Society didn’t solve poverty. The war on drugs is a failure… and the government spent $2 billion on a broken Obamacare website and half a million defending Congressmen from sexual assault accusations.

And it gets worse… trillions of dollars have been literally blown up, spent on bombs for the middle-east which, oops, also killed a bunch of kids, brides, and other “collateral damage.”

Point is… the government’s execution is almost always poor… but they believe throwing more money at it will fix the problem.

ANYTHING you do with your money is more productive (not to mention moral) than what the government does with it.

The scariest part of all this isn’t the proposed taxes. It’s the idea behind them…

This is no longer about raising money for socialist programs. It’s about punishing the rich and giving the rest of the people their fair share.

But there’s no wall yet to keep us in. And rest assured… just like in Sweden and France, the rich will flee the US to friendlier tax jurisdictions.

As you know, I think your best option is probably Puerto Rico… and its Acts 20 & 22 tax incentives (which allow for a 4% corporate tax and 0% tax on capital gains and interest). I’m living on the beach paradise, watching this all play out knowing my capital is safe. I hope you’ll consider joining me. Also, I just recorded a podcast about my personal experiences in Puerto Rico. You can listen to it here…  You can hear all about my personal experience here, in last week’s podcast.

To continue learning how to legitimately reduce your taxes, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.

end

SWAMP STORIES

Trump claims that there is not going to be any deal to consider a wall.  Thus he must use his emergency measures to do the deed

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump: Border Security Dealmakers Are “Wasting Their Time” If They Aren’t Considering A Wall

After putting the odds of a border security deal at “less than 50-50” during an interview with WSJ on Sunday, President Trump chimed in on twitter Wednesday morning to remind the bipartisan committee of 17 appropriations committee members – a mix of Senators and members of the House of Representatives – that if they are not considering a wall or physical barrier, they are “wasting their time.”

The warning, which comes on the second day of negotiations, follows Trump’s decision to approve a three-week stopgap funding bill to reopen the government until Feb. 15, at which point he will either usher in another shutdown or take steps to declare a national emergency that would allow him to use funds appropriated for the military to start construction on the wall.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

If the committee of Republicans and Democrats now meeting on Border Security is not discussing or contemplating a Wall or Physical Barrier, they are Wasting their time!

These are the lawmakers tasked with negotiating the deal (courtesy of CNN).

CNN

And as if to nudge lawmakers, Trump quoted a story from Fox & Friends about three new caravans heading for the US border.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

“Three separate caravans marching to our Border. The numbers are tremendous.” @foxandfriends

Earlier on Wednesday, Trump tweeted out a rebuttal to concerns raised by Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats on Tuesday during his annual testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, where he notably contradicted the administration’s narratives on ISIS and North Korea. Trump lauded the negotiations with the Taliban that he said might finally bring peace to Afghanistan “after 18 years of fighting” – a relief to the people of Afghanistan, who are surely tired of this “never ending war.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

When I became President, ISIS was out of control in Syria & running rampant. Since then tremendous progress made, especially over last 5 weeks. Caliphate will soon be destroyed, unthinkable two years ago. Negotiating are proceeding well in Afghanistan after 18 years of fighting..

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….Fighting continues but the people of Afghanistan want peace in this never ending war. We will soon see if talks will be successful? North Korea relationship is best it has ever been with U.S. No testing, getting remains, hostages returned. Decent chance of Denuclearization…

The president added that “time will tell” whether NK makes good on its promises, but since taking office, Trump said the “horrendous and very bad” relationship with NK is now a “whole different story” thanks to his engagement.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…Time will tell what will happen with North Korea, but at the end of the previous administration, relationship was horrendous and very bad things were about to happen. Now a whole different story. I look forward to seeing Kim Jong Un shortly. Progress being made-big difference!

&Trump is planning to attend a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un – the second meeting between an American and North Korean leader since the Korean War – next month.

end

Trump slams his own intelligence officials to “go back to school” with respect to ISIS.  He also tells the Deep State to be careful on Iran although economically he has destroyed them

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Slams “Naive” Intel Officials: “Go Back To School… Be Careful Of Iran”

Responding to the avalanche of media hype surrounding US intelligence officials’ comments yesterday that appeared to contradict practically everything that President Trump has been warning about (or celebrating), he has come out swinging in his usual Tweeted way.

His first tweet appears to indicate he knows better…

The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong! When I became President Iran was making trouble all over the Middle East, and beyond. Since ending the terrible Iran Nuclear Deal, they are MUCH different.”

However, Trump continues, they remain a major threat:

“but…a source of potential danger and conflict. They are testing Rockets (last week) and more, and are coming very close to the edge. “

After making an unfortunate typo:

There economy is now crashing, which is the only thing holding them back.”

Trump then makes the ironic suggestion that….

“Be careful of Iran. Perhaps Intelligence should go back to school!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong! When I became President Iran was making trouble all over the Middle East, and beyond. Since ending the terrible Iran Nuclear Deal, they are MUCH different, but….

10.3K people are talking about this

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….a source of potential danger and conflict. They are testing Rockets (last week) and more, and are coming very close to the edge. There economy is now crashing, which is the only thing holding them back. Be careful of Iran. Perhaps Intelligence should go back to school!

The Deep State will not be happy.

end

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

New details of 2016 meeting with Trump dossier author conflict with Dems’ timeline

Email traffic, reviewed by Fox News, indicated that Steele broached the possibility of a meeting with Bruce Ohr as early as July 1, 2016… However, congressional Democrats have asserted many of the contacts occurred later in the year…

     The emails showed Fusion GPS co-founder Glenn Simpson was in contact with Ohr in August 2016. However, Simpson’s November 2017 transcribed interview before the House Intelligence Committee showed him saying he worked through Bruce Ohr “sometime after Thanksgiving.”…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-details-of-2016-meeting-with-trump-dossier-author-conflict-with-dems-timeline

 

FBI Ignored Major Lead on Clinton Emails, Closed-Door Testimonies Suggest

The office of the Intelligence Community Inspector General informed the FBI in 2015 that a forensic review of Hillary Clinton’s emails unearthed anomalies in the metadata of the messages. The evidence in the metadata suggested that a copy of every email Hillary Clinton sent during her tenure as the secretary of state was forwarded to a foreign third party

https://m.theepochtimes.com/exclusive-fbi-ignored-major-lead-on-clinton-emails-closed-door-testimonies-suggest_2782019.html

 

@SaraCarterDC: “It seems like (John Huber) entire appointment was just a maneuver for Sessions to the heat off him,” said Congressional source. CRICKETS AT DOJ: Probe Into FBI’s Handling Of Trump Russia Remains A Mystery   https://saraacarter.com/crickets-at-doj-probe-into-fbis-handling-of-trump-russia-remain-a-mystery/

 

Democrats Plan Starbucks Boycott if “Egotistical, Billionaire A**hole” Schultz Runs for President

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-29/democrats-plan-starbucks-boycott-if-egotistical-billionaire-asshole-schultz-runs

 

Harris backs ‘Medicare-for-all’ and eliminating private insurance as we know it

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/29/politics/harris-private-insurance-medicare/index.html

 

Dems to strike ‘so help you God’ from oath taken in front of key House committee, draft shows

The draft rules also remove the phrase “his or her” throughout the document, changing those two pronouns to “their.”… Other rules changes relate to expanding the committee’s authority over natural gas in Alaska and fossil-fuel resources

     House Republican Conference Chairwoman Liz Cheney, R-Wyo… “They really have become the party of Karl Marx.”…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-move-to-strike-so-help-me-god-from-oath-taken-in-front-of-key-house-committee.amp

 

@1776Stonewall: New ABC poll shows that 56% of Americans would not vote for Donald Trump in 2020. . . One little problem: that poll only sampled 23% Republicans. It’s all phony, folks

end

Let us close with this great interview of Dr Chris Martenson

Global Collapse Accelerating Buy Gold Now – Chris Martenson

By Greg Hunter On January 30, 2019

Futurist and economic researcher Chris Martenson says a collapse is “a process, not an event.” Martenson contends the long awaited global collapse, on many fronts, has not only started, but is picking up speed. Martenson says, “Our prediction at PeakProsperity.com is these collapse trends, we have been following for 10 years now, are accelerating and continuing. None of them are reversing at this point in time. These will impact people’s future in a huge way. Environmentally, we see these signs, but we also have $245 trillion of debt in the global economy. We have been accelerating that debt cycle as if we could just keep that trend going forever—we can’t. So, what we see are all these unsustainable trends converging. They are going to happen . . . and people need to be ready.”

Martenson lays out the case to blame central banks for much of the geopolitical and economic friction in the world today. Martenson says, “The economic pie is not expanding anymore. It’s kind of stagnant. So, if you have one tiny group taking their fair share and the pie isn’t growing, it means they are taking from somebody else. This is the essence of central banking. They don’t create wealth, they redistribute wealth. When the Federal Reserve crams rates to zero, the savers lose out, but lose to who? The winners and losers are being picked by the central banks, and they have decided that the .01% should be the winners in this story and everybody else should be the losers. . . . Central bank policies have really benefited the elites at the expense of everybody else. This brings up the most important point and that is central banks are not our friends. They are redistributive organizations.”

Martenson also says, “Our view is if we get into a war that it will be so devastating, there really won’t be a recovery from it.” As for the elite, Martenson says, “It’s time to panic. . . . They have thrown in the towel, they have caved and are ready to go back to the print-a-thon thing. That is concerning because the financial world can’t even manage stopping their bond purchases, let alone reversing them without them panicking . . . . When a central bank can’t even flatten out their balance sheet purchases, you should be panicking.”

Central banks cannot stop the money printing without the whole system blowing up. Maybe that is why gold is going up? Martenson says, “I believe it is. . . . I buy gold because gold is the only form of money that is not simultaneously someone else’s liability. We are talking about a world so saddled with debt, I am not sure where all the liabilities lie. I don’t trust . . . the accounting of major corporations. I don’t trust what derivatives will do in a crisis. . . . This is the ‘Everything Bubble.’ What happens when it bursts? We don’t know. So, gold, to me, is the thing I want to own and hold when you have a systemic crisis.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Chris Martenson, co-founder of PeakProsperity.com.

end
I WILL SEE YOU THURSDAY NIGHT
Advertisements

One comment

  1. themagicbusguy · · Reply

    Thanks Harvey, have a good night

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: