GOLD: $1314.75 UP $4.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Silver: $15.82 UP 11 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Closing access prices:
Gold : 1314.15
silver: $15.82
CHINA WILL BE BACK NEW WEEK AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIG RISE IN OUR PRECIOUS METALS ESPECIALLY WITH ALL OF THE BAD NEWS HITTING THE ECONOMIC SCENE.
For comex gold and silver:
FEBRUARY
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEB CONTRACT: 191 NOTICE(S) FOR 19100 OZ (0.594 tonnes)
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 9081 NOTICES FOR 908,100 OZ (28.245 TONNES)
SILVER
FOR FEBRUARY
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
8 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 40,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month: 528 for 2,645,000
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3422: UP 34
Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3661 UP $263
end
XXXX
JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.
today 96/191
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,309.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/07/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 02/11/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
323 H HSBC 5
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 166
661 C JP MORGAN 19
661 H JP MORGAN 77
690 C ABN AMRO 20 6
737 C ADVANTAGE 5 33
800 C MAREX SPEC 8
880 H CITIGROUP 41
____________________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 191 191
MONTH TO DATE: 9,081
Let us have a look at the data for today
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1954 CONTRACTS FROM 208,276 UP TO 210,110 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018 RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:
546 EFP’S FOR MARCH, 0 FOR APRIL, 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 546 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 546 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 546 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.730 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:
JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);
FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ
FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ
FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S
FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.
FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND
21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.
5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.
AND NOW 2.595 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 4998 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 5544 CONTRACTS) OR 27.720 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 792 CONTRACTS OR 3.960 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 27.720 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 3.96% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 245.18 MILLION OZ.
JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS: 217.455. MILLION OZ.
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1954 DESPITE THE 1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 546 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .
TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2500 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
i.e 546 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1954 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.71 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.047 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 150% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 8 NOTICE(S) FOR 40,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.
AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ JANUARY AT 5.825 MILLION OZ.AND NOW FEB 2019: 2.595 MILLION OZ/
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).
IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4958 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 476,635 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.35//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4530 CONTRACTS:
MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS APRIL 4530 CONTRACTS, DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 476,635. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN A VERY TINY SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 428 CONTRACTS: 4958 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4530 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS: 458 CONTRACTS OR 45,800, OZ = 1.33 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $0.35.
YESTERDAY, WE HAD 3148 EFP’S ISSUED.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY : 36,311 CONTRACTS OR 3,631,100 OZ OR 112.94 TONNES (7 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5159 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 112.94 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 112.94/2550 x 100% TONNES = 4.42% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE: 4,744.3 TONNES
JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 531.20 TONNES
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4958 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($0.35) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4530 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4530 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A TINY LOSS OF 428 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
4530 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4958 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 1.333 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $0.35 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX
we had: 191 notice(s) filed upon for 19100 oz of gold at the comex.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD...
WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY
THE FRAUD CONTINUES:
ANOTHER STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.59 TONNES
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THIS IS THE ONLY SOURCE OF PAPER GOLD THAT THE CROOKS CAN USE TO STOP GOLD’S ASCENT.
/GLD INVENTORY 803.29 TONNES
Inventory rests tonight: 803.29 tonnes.
TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY
SLV/
WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTs IN PRICE TODAY:
A BIG CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV.
ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ FROM THE SLV
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999 MILLION OZ.
end
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1954 CONTRACTS from 208,156 UP TO 210,110 AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 1 1/3 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..
.
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
546 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MAY., 0 FOR DECEMBER AND AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 546 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1954 CONTRACTS TO THE 546 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 2530 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12.50 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., 7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. 21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..AND NOW 2.595 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY.
RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 1 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 546 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
(report Harvey)
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 43.89 POINTS OR .16% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 418.11 PTS OR 2.01%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.37%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7422 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 52.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED //.
ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED // LAST AT 6.7422 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7817: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED
3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)North Korea//USA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 C/ CHINA
i) CHINA/USA
I think China does not understand Trump too well: they are confident that the President will drop tariffs even without concessions
( zerohedge)
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
i)UK
Details are leaked what the UK government will do if they do a hard BREXIT. One novel thought would be to lower tariffs to zero and that would get goods moving in a hurry. I do not think that the damage will be as bad as some pundits let on..
( zerohedge)
ii)EU
Bergman of Gatestone comments on the EU’s plan for disinformation to flow throughout Europe from the press and politicians. Free speech is being censored and this is not a way to run a democracy
(Judith Berman/Gatestone)
iii)Germany/Wirecard
( zerohedge)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
The USA finally comes out with a set target date for full withdrawal from Syria and it is by the end of April
( zerohedge)
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
7. OIL ISSUES
Much to the anger of the USA and France, the EU will not block the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline which brings gas to Europe from Russia:
( zerohedge)
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
i)VENEZUELA/USA
VENEZUELA’S MADURO believes that the uSA will attack it shortly
( zerohedge)
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)
MARKET TRADING
ii)Market data/
b)Mac Slavo highlights that an increasing number of middle class American citizens are living from paycheck to paycheck.
(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)
iv)SWAMP STORIES
a)THE FIRST OF MANY SUBPOENAS TO BE ISSUED//Adam Schiff prepares one to subpoena phone records linked to the Trump Tower meeting.
( zerohedge)
( zerohedge/Kim Strassel/Wall Street journal)
end
Let us head over to the comex:
THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 3444 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 128,468 CONTRACTS. AFTER MARCH, APRIL ROSE FROM 26 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 39 FOR A GAIN OF 13. AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ADVANCED BY 4859 CONTRACTS UP TO 48,429 CONTRACTS.
FOR COMPARISON SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH FEB 2018 VS FEB 2019
ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FEB 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 670,000 OZ. AT THE MONTH’S CONCLUSION WE HAD 2.035 MILLION OZ STAND AS WE WITNESSED QUEUE JUMPING ON A REGULAR BASIS AT THE SILVER COMEX.
TODAY THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 2.050 MILLION OZ./
comex gold volumes are getting extremely low as players just do not want to play in this casino.
i) out of Scotia: 514.400 oz
(16 kilobars)
Store Gold Bullion In Safest Ways – Learning from Tragic Venezuela Today
– Store gold bullion in the safest ways possible and learn from Venezuela’s gold battle with the Bank of England and Trump’s White House
– What in the world is happening in Venezuela and to the people of Venezuela’s gold?
– How you store gold and invest in gold is vitally important in these uncertain times
As a sovereign nation, Venezuela should have the right to take possession of and sell their gold on the open market. As sovereign individuals, we should too.
It is a difficult issue as the recent election is in doubt and the concern is that the euros (or dollars) garnered by the sale of the people’s gold reserves may be squandered trying to prop up the Maduro government rather than looking after the humanitarian needs of the people of Venezuela.
Central banks are repatriating and taking possession of their gold and indeed buying gold today. This tragic story highlights the importance of all people owning gold in the safest ways possible.
We must all become our own central banks!
What are the ‘7 Key Gold & Silver Storage Must Haves’?
1. How to store gold bullion and the importance of owning individually segregated and allocated coins and bars
2. Can you visit, view and collect your bullion whenever you want and is liquidity and competitive pricing ensured?
3. Chain of integrity that ensures the authenticity of your store of gold bullion
4. Bailment and legal structures that best protects the investor
5. Risks inherent in ETF, electronic & digital gold (online gold platforms or bullion vaults)
6. Vital insurance considerations to know: Ensure that your bullion provider and its storage partners have adequate insurance cover
7. Can you visit, view and collect your gold bullion whenever you want and is liquidity and competitive pricing ensured?
Click Here to Access 7 Key Gold and Silver Storage Must-Haves
News and Commentary
Gold posts longest streak of declines in almost 2 years (MarketWatch.com)
Gold hovers near one-week low on buoyant dollar (Reuters.com)
Shares stumble on fresh fears about global growth, trade (Reuters.com)
Cannabis craze weeds out junior mining field (Reuters.com)
Fed’s Kaplan reiterates case for pause on rate hikes (Reuters.ie)
Carney Counts Brexit Cost as BOE Sees Weakest Growth in a Decade (Bloomberg.com)
Wells Fargo outage affects mobile, online banking, ATMs (UPI.com)
Why Italy’s Debts Are Europe’s Big Problem. Source: GFMS
All of a Sudden, the New Year Market Rally Looks Under Threat (Bloomberg.com)
Central Banks Haven’t Bought This Much Gold Since Nixon Closed the Gold Window (Goldseek.com)
Russia’s new shield against U.S. sanctions: A Siberian gold mine (WSJ.com)
4 Steps to Recession-Proofing Your Small Business (Preview.Inc.com)
Listen on iTunes,Blubrry & SoundCloud & watch on YouTube above
Gold Prices (LBMA PM)
07 Feb: USD 1,310.00, GBP 1009.49 & EUR 1,154.11 per ounce
06 Feb: USD 1,313.35, GBP 1013.51 & EUR 1,152.86 per ounce
05 Feb: USD 1,314.00, GBP 1009.15 & EUR 1,150.67 per ounce
04 Feb: USD 1,311.00, GBP 1004.36 & EUR 1,145.55 per ounce
01 Feb: USD 1,320.75, GBP 1008.54 & EUR 1,150.83 per ounce
31 Jan: USD 1,322.50, GBP 1006.95 & EUR 1,152.16 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
07 Feb: USD 15.71, GBP 12.20 & EUR 13.87 per ounce
06 Feb: USD 15.73, GBP 12.15 & EUR 13.82 per ounce
05 Feb: USD 15.86, GBP 12.19 & EUR 13.89 per ounce
04 Feb: USD 15.74, GBP 12.05 & EUR 13.75 per ounce
01 Feb: USD 16.01, GBP 12.26 & EUR 13.96 per ounce
31 Jan: USD 16.07, GBP 12.24 & EUR 13.99 per ounce
Recent Market Updates
– Gold Surges In Aussie Dollars as Aussie Property Market Declines Sharply
– “Right” Trump and “Left” Ocasio-Cortez Will Join Forces And Debase The Dollar
– 7 Financial Truths In An Uncertain 2019
– Central Banks Buy More Gold In 2018 Than Any Year Since 1967
– Gold Breaks Out of Range After Dovish Fed – Further 1% Gain to $1,321/oz
– U.S.-China War May Be “Just A Shot Away”
– Buy Bitcoin or Gold? Bitcoin Buyers Investing In Gold In 2019
– Gold Consolidates Above $1,300 After 1.2% Gain Last Week
– Gold Bullion Will Protect From Politicians, Brexit and Increasing Market Volatility In 2019
– Brexit – The Pin That Bursts London Property Bubble
– Davos: David Attenborough Warns We Are Damaging The World ‘Beyond Repair’
– Gold May Return 25% In 2019 Given Brexit, Trump and Other Risks – IG TV Interview GoldCore
– Brexit, EU, Germany, China and Yellow Vests In 2019 – Something Wicked This Way Comes
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
The USA finally comes out with a set target date for full withdrawal from Syria and it is by the end of April
(courtesy zerohedge)
US Military Finally Sets Target Date For “Full Withdrawal” From Syria
Here it is finally. The time has arrived for the fabled, confused and precarious US troop withdrawal from Syria despite the best efforts of neocons and interventionistas to permanently stall and alter course, per a new Wall Street Journal report that dropped late in the day Thursday: “the military plans to pull a significant portion of its forces out by mid-March, with a full withdrawal coming by the end of April.”
But you might be forgiven for remaining skeptical with a “believe it when I see it” approach, as President Trump first announced a “rapid withdrawal” on Dec. 19 which quickly became “no timeline” in the weeks that followed — though it depended on who in the administration or Pentagon was asked — with many determined to quash Trump’s prior campaign promises of “bring our boys home.” But now the WSJ speaks with a new confidence that this time it’s for real:
The U.S. military is preparing to pull all American forces out of Syria by the end of April, even though the Trump administration has yet to come up with a plan to protect its Kurdish partners from attack when they leave, current and former U.S. officials said.

What’s hanging the balance, and of concern for US officials, is the unresolved fate of the Kurds who are now looking down the barrels of the Turkish army and the head-chopping knives of their jihadi ‘rebel’ allies on the ground, poised to invade formerly US-occupied space in Syria.
The WSJ report, citing US officials, says that Washington and Ankara have “made little headway” on the Kurdish issue after a series of diplomatic cold shoulders, including John Bolton being personally snubbed by Turkish president Erdogan last month while Bolton was visiting Turkey for talks. The US has aimed to avert a direct fight (in which the Kurds would face slaughter or certain retreat), but simultaneously to prevent its Kurdish allies on the ground from entering the embrace and protection of Assad.
Something has to give, so could it be that Trump is willing to accept Kurdish rapprochement with Damascus? It could very well be headed toward a “look the other way situation” on this front, as the WSJ notes “the U.S. military withdrawal is proceeding faster than the political track.”
“The bottom line is: Decisions have to be made,” one U.S. official told the WSJ. “At some point, we make political progress, or they’re going to have to tell the military to slow down, or we’re going to proceed without a political process.”
However, the WSJ also noted that the Pentagon has yet to comment: “We are not discussing the timeline of the U.S. withdrawal from Syria,” said a Pentagon spokesman.
It should be noted that Trump’s latest rhetoric seems a preparation for quick pullout, or big coming announcement: “It should be formally announced sometime, probably next week, that we will have 100% of the caliphate,” the president said Wednesday during an anti-ISIL coalition speech at the State Department.
According to the WSJ report, some 2,000 US service members would withdraw as follows:
Under the working military plans, the U.S. would pull all troops out in the coming weeks — including about 200 Americans working out of a base in southern Syria [al-Tanf] that has served as an informal check on Iran’s expansionist ambitions in the region, the current and former U.S. officials said.
And on Tuesday, the commander of U.S. Central Command, Army Gen. Joseph Votel, said in testimony before Senate Armed Services Committee, “I am not under pressure to be out by a specific date, and I have not had any specific conditions put upon me,” Gen. Votel said, but crucially he added, “The fact is the president made a decision, and we are going to execute his orders here to withdraw all forces from Syria.”
Per Trump’s words on Wednesday, will an April “complete exit” be announced from the mouth of the president himself next week, at which point the Pentagon and administration hawks will no longer able to stall?
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
7 OIL ISSUES
Much to the anger of the USA and France, the EU will not block the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline which brings gas to Europe from Russia:
( zerohedge)
8. EMERGING MARKETS
Venezuela/USA
VENEZUELA’S MADURO believes that the uSA will attack it shortly
( zerohedge)
Maduro Invokes Vietnam In Open Letter; Warns America Will “Send Their Sons To Die In An Absurd War”
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has penned an open letter to the people of the United States, warning that Washington is “willing to send their sons and daughters to die in an absurd war,” and that Venezuelan patriots “shall defend our homeland with all the pieces of our soul.”
Maduro posted an image of the letter to Twitter, which he said would be delivered to the White House “to demand respect for our unwaivable right to peace.”
Slamming US President Trump’s aggressive statements “disrupting noble dialogue initiatives” promoted by Uruguay and Mexico, and backed by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Maduro warned of “dramatic consequences,” and compared the current situation to the US involvement in Vietnam and the fake WMDs in Iraq.
They want to invade and intervene in Venezuela – they say, as they said then – in the name of democracy and freedom. But it’s not like that. The history of the usurpation of power in Venezuela is as false as the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. It is a false case, but it can have dramatic consequences for our entire region. -Nicolás Maduro
Maduro has demanded that the US stop its aggression towards Venezuela, including trying to “suffocate our economy,” and “the serious and dangerous threats of military intervention.
Earlier this week images of a massive blockade on a major highway link with Colombia made headlines, as the Venezuelan military used truck trailers and shipping containers to stop aid (and probably a ton of weapons) from entering the country and falling into the hands of the self-recognized interim president, Juan Guaidó.
He was sworn in for his new term last month, but the National Assembly, controlled by opposition parties, called Mr. Maduro’s government illegitimate. The Assembly’s leader, Juan Guaidó, declared himself interim president last month and promised to organize new elections.
The United States and dozens of other countries have recognized Mr. Guaidó.
The aid shipment represents a challenge to Mr. Maduro’s authority and to his ability to provide for the nation. (“We are not beggars,” he recently said.) For his opponents, it is a test of their ability to deliver on promises and to win supporters. –New York Times
The United States and dozens of other countries have recognized Guaidó as the leader of Venezuela, after the National Assembly – controlled by Venezuela’s opposition parties – called Maduro’s government illegitimate.
Read Maduro’s letter below:
An Open Letter to the American People from President Nicolas Maduro
If I know anything, it is about peoples, such as you, I am a man of the people. I was born and raised in a poor neighborhood of Caracas. I forged myself in the heat of popular and union struggles in a Venezuela submerged in exclusion and inequality. I am not a tycoon, I am a worker of reason and heart, today I have the great privilege of presiding over the new Venezuela, rooted in a model of inclusive development and social equality, which was forged by Commander Hugo Chávez since 1998 inspired by the Bolivarian legacy.
We live today a historical trance. There are days that will define the future of our countries between war and peace. Your national representatives of Washington want to bring to their borders the same hatred that they planted in Vietnam. They want to invade and intervene in Venezuela – they say, as they said then – in the name of democracy and freedom. But it’s not like that. The history of the usurpation of power in Venezuela is as false as the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. It is a false case, but it can have dramatic consequences for our entire region.
Venezuela is a country that, by virtue of its 1999 Constitution, has broadly expanded the participatory and protagonist democracy of the people, and that is unprecedented today, as one of the countries with the largest number of electoral processes in its last 20 years. You might not like our ideology, or our appearance, but we exist and we are millions.
I address these words to the people of the United States of America to warn of the gravity and danger that intend some sectors in the White House to invade Venezuela with unpredictable consequences for my country and for the entire American region. President Donald Trump also intends to disturb noble dialogue initiatives promoted by Uruguay and Mexico with the support of CARICOM for a peaceful solution and dialogue in favour of Venezuela. We know that for the good of Venezuela we have to sit down and talk, because to refuse to dialogue is to choose strength as a way. Keep in mind the words of John F. Kennedy: “Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate”. Are those who do not want to dialogue afraid of the truth?
The political intolerance towards the Venezuelan Bolivarian model and the desires for our immense oil resources, minerals and other great riches, has prompted an international coalition headed by the US government to commit the serious insanity of militarily attacking Venezuela under the false excuse of a non-existent humanitarian crisis.
The people of Venezuela have suffered painfully social wounds caused by a criminal commercial and financial blockade, which has been aggravated by the dispossession and robbery of our financial resources and assets in countries aligned with this demented onslaught.
And yet, thanks to a new system of social protection, of direct attention to the most vulnerable sectors, we proudly continue to be a country with high human development index and lower inequality in the Americas.
The American people must know that this complex multiform aggression is carried out with total impunity and in clear violation of the Charter of the United Nations, which expressly outlaws the threat or use of force, among other principles and purposes for the sake of peace and the friendly relations between the Nations.
We want to continue being business partners of the people of the United States, as we have been throughout our history. Their politicians in Washington, on the other hand, are willing to send their sons and daughters to die in an absurd war, instead of respecting the sacred right of the Venezuelan people to self-determination and safeguarding their sovereignty.
Like you, people of the United States, we Venezuelans are patriots. And we shall defend our homeland with all the pieces of our soul. Today Venezuela is united in a single clamor: we demand the cessation of the aggression that seeks to suffocate our economy and socially suffocate our people, as well as the cessation of the serious and dangerous threats of military intervention against Venezuela. We appeal to the good soul of the American society, victim of its own leaders, to join our call for peace, let us be all one people against warmongering and war.
Long live the peoples of America!
Nicolás Maduro
President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela
end
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….
Euro/USA 1.1323 DOWN .0015 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED
USA/JAPAN YEN 109.79 UP .043 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…DEADLY TO OUR YEN SHORTERS
GBP/USA 1.2933 DOWN 0.0016 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED
USA/CAN 1.3271 DOWN .0040 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 31 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1394/ Last night Shanghai composite closed /OFF FOR THE WEEK/CHINESE NEW YEAR
//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 43.87 POINTS OR .16%
/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .37% /EUROPEAN BOURSES RED
The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 418.11 POINTS OR 2.01%
Trading from Europe and Asia
1/EUROPE OPENED RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 43.89 POINTS OR .16%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR
Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.37%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 418.11 PTS OR 2.01%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1309.50
silver:$15.71
Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.66% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
The 30 yr bond yield 3.01 DOWN 1 IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.63 UP 13 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.65% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.03% DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.23% DOWN 1 IN basis point yield from THURSDAY
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.96 UP 1 POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 173 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.08% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.88% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1323 DOWN .0015 or 15 basis points
USA/Japan: 109.79 UP 0.043 OR 4 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2933 DOWN.0016( POUND DOWN 16 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar UP 40 basis points to 1.3271
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan,CNY closed HOLIDAY AT 6.7422 0N SHORE (YUAN CLOSED)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.7860( YUAN DOWN)
TURKISH LIRA: 5.2503
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.03%
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.63 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.98 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day /
THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS
Your closing USA dollar index, 96.63 UP 13 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 22.40 OR 0.32%
German Dax : DOWN 115.24 POINTS OR 1.05%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 23.92 POINTS OR 0.48%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 81.50 POINTS OR 0.91%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 126.42 POINTS OR 0.65%
WTI Oil price; 52.64 1:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 61.96 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / ROUBLE CROSS: 6574 THE CROSS LOW BY 0.21 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 21 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.10 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 52.65
BRENT : 62.09
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.63..
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.97
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1323 ( DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.77 UP.020 (YEN DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS/..
.
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.65 UP 14 cent(s)/
The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2957 DOWN 12 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY
the Turkish lira close: 5.2506
the Russian rouble 65.76: UP .18 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 18 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3266 UP 45 BASIS pts
USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.7422 (ONSHORE)/CLOSED FOR THE WEEK
USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7844 (OFFSHORE)
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.10%
The Dow closed down 63.20 POINTS OR 0.25%
NASDAQ closed UP 9.25 POINTS OR 0.14%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.03 CLOSED DOWN .34
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.737% .LIBOR RATES ARE FALLING/
FROM 2.738
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY
Late-Day Panic-Buying Keeps Stock Win Streak Alive, Bond Yields Tumble To 13-Mo Lows
World GDP growth expectations are tumbling…
Earnings expectations are plunging…
And still stocks manage to hold gains…
“f*** this”…
With Chinese stock markets closed for the week as the nation celebrates the lunar new years, Yuan has drifted weaker…
And China Large Cap ETF has also been sliding…
After a good start to the week, European stocks suffered their first weekly loss in six, led by DAX…
What a total farce – a late day panic-bid ensured the weekly win streak remains alive…
Futures show the day best with the incessant bid beginning to lift stocks after Europe closed…and then panic bid into the cash close…
The S&P failed at its 200DMA and then broke back below (and closed below) its 100DMA…
“Most Shorted” stocks actually fell this week as the juice that sent stocks soaring in January has well and truly run out…
Bond yields and stocks have really decoupled…
Credit and equity protection costs surged midweek…
Treasury yields tumbled on the week (3rd weekly decline in 10Y Yields in a row)…
This is the lowest weekly 10Y Yield close since Jan 2018…
The Dollar index is now up 7 days in a row – the longest winning streak since Dec 2017…
We note that the Chinese are back next week.
Despite the dollar gains, cryptos had a huge week, led by Litecoin…
WTI had an ugly week, copper outperformed (but faded today) and PMs managed small losses (despite the dollar surge)…
It seems $52 is the magic number of crude…
Gold bounced back above the pre-Powell lows…
Gold gained against the yuan…
Of course, Iron Ore is the big winner, following the Vale disaster..
Finally, there’s this…
And this…
MARKET TRADING
ii)Market data/
(courtesy zerohedge)
Mac Slavo highlights that an increasing number of middle class American citizens are living from paycheck to paycheck.
(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)
Living Paycheck-To-Paycheck: The New Crisis And Normal For The American Middle Class
Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,
According to recent studies, the vast majority of the American middle class is only one missed paycheck away from poverty. About 78% of workers in the United States are living paycheck to paycheck, and the statistics don’t improve from there.
Only 39% of Americans actually have saved enough money to cover a $1000 emergency. Nearly 3 in 4 workers say they are in debt and of those, more than half think they always will be, according to statistics posted by Forbes. Any rise in interest rates or the cost of food could leave some Americans with the tough choice of eating or paying the car payment to get to work.
A similar 2016 GOBankingRates survey found that 69 percent of Americans had less than $1,000 in total savings and 34 percent had no savings at all. That means many Americans would have to put an emergency expense on a credit card or borrow money another way just to cover the cost of a $1000 expense.
Making matters worse, the 2017 Report on the Economic Wellbeing of US Households stated that, when asked how they would cover an emergency expense of $400, only 59% of Americans said they could easily cover the expense using entirely cash, savings, or a credit card paid off at the next statement. But “four in ten adults would either borrow, sell something or not be able to pay” if faced with a $400 emergency expense.
The government shutdown recently highlighted the fact that a large number of Americans are wholly unprepared for any kind of economic downturn, let alone another recession.
According to the newest op-ed article by Market Watch, the government shutdown is perfectly proving that Americans are not prepared for a financial disaster of any kind, let alone an economic recession. Many have long assumed that the government (which as we all know is almost $22 trillion in debt) will be using their money (stolen funds aka, taxation) to bail out those who get themselves into trouble. But the shutdown is proving just how little the government actually does and just how financially illiterate many Americans have allowed themselves to become.
It’s been ten years since the Great Recession left many Americans jobless with no money, and it appears most have learned nothing. The government shutdown serves as a painful warning and preview for what will happen once unemployment rises from 50-year lows. Americans are far too dependent on others, including the government, for their survival.
Forbes reported that even without an unexpected expense, according to the Fed’s report, one in five (22%) can’t cover all their current month’s bills, and one in four skipped a medical treatment in the past year due to an inability to pay. Some of those use credit cards in between paychecks to scrape by and many know that they will be unable to pay back the money they have already borrowed.
I think a lot of Americans are so willing to use their credit cards because they’re so far in debt, they know they’re broke, and they might as well go out with a bang. A lot of people have no intention of paying back the money that they’re using whether it’s Visa or Mastercard.
The good times won’t last forever. All economies eventually fall into a recession, and this one will be no different. Those who are prepared will turn a major catastrophe into an inconvenience, while those who are not prepared could face mounting difficulties.
end
“They’re Running Out Of Options” – Farm Bankruptcies Surge To 10-Year High As Trade War Bites
The Farm Belt helped cement President Trump’s historic electoral triumph over Hillary Clinton. But even before Trump started his trade war with China nearly one year ago, Trump’s protectionist bent has added to the collective woes of farmers, who were already struggling with low prices for corn, soy beans and other agricultural commodities.
China’s decision to purchase millions of soybeans (after orders ground to halt late last year following another round of tariffs) offered some relief to soybean producers who were teetering on the brink even with President Trump’s farm bailout money in hand. But even if negotiations result in a lasting agreement, it might not be enough to save hundreds of American family farms from collapsing into bankruptcy, as the Wall Street Journalpointed out in a story published Wednesday.
According to a WSJ analysis of federal data, the number of farmers filing for bankruptcy has climbed to its highest level in a decade…
…driven by a lasting slump in agricultural commodity prices due in large part to the rise of rival producers like Brazil and Russia.
Bankruptcies in three regions covering major farm states last year rose to the highest level in at least 10 years. The Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals, which includes Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin, had double the bankruptcies in 2018 compared with 2008. In the Eighth Circuit, which includes states from North Dakota to Arkansas, bankruptcies swelled 96%. The 10th Circuit, which covers Kansas and other states, last year had 59% more bankruptcies than a decade earlier.
And Trump’s trade wars – not just with China, but more broadly – aren’t helping.
Trade disputes under the Trump administration with major buyers of U.S. farm goods, such as China and Mexico, have further roiled agricultural markets and pressured farmers’ incomes. Prices for soybeans and hogs plummeted after those countries retaliated against U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs by imposing duties on U.S. products like oilseeds and pork, slashing shipments to big buyers.
Low milk prices are driving dairy farmers out of business in a market that’s also struggling with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. cheese from Mexico and China. Tariffs on U.S. pork have helped contribute to a record buildup in U.S. meat supplies, leading to lower prices for beef and chicken.
Because of this, the level of farm debt is approaching levels last seen in the 1980s.
The stress on American farmers is also affecting agribusinesses giants like Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge and Cargill, who are feeling the heat even as lower crop prices translate into less-expensive raw materials for the commodity buyers.
What’s worse is that even after working side jobs to try and make ends meet, some farmers are still winding up more than $1 million in debt.
Mr. Duensing has managed to keep farming, hiring himself out to plant crops for other farmers for extra income and borrowing from an investment group at an interest rate twice as high as offered by traditional lenders. Despite selling some land and equipment, Mr. Duensing remains more than $1 million in debt.
“I’ve been through several dips in 40 years,” said Mr. Duensing. “This one here is gonna kick my butt.”
Even more shocking than the number of bankruptcies, the number of farms that continue to operate while losing money has risen to more than half of all farms, even as the level of productivity has never been higher.
More than half of U.S. farm households lost money farming in recent years, according to the USDA, which estimated that median farm income for U.S. farm households was negative $1,548 in 2018. Farm incomes have slid despite record productivity on American farms, because oversupply drives down commodity prices.
And bankers who lend to farms warn that there will likely be more bankruptcies to come as more producers “are running out of options.”
Agricultural lenders, bankruptcy attorneys and farm advisers warn further bankruptcies are in the offing as more farmers shed assets and get deeper in debt, and banks deny the funds needed to plant a crop this spring.
“We are seeing producers who are running out of options,” said Tim Koch, senior vice president at Omaha, Neb.-based Farm Credit Services of America, which lends to farmers and ranchers in Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming.
Perhaps the only silver lining – if you can even call it that – is that bankruptcy lawyers in states where farms are prevalent are doing their best business in years.
Mounting stress in the Farm Belt has meant big, if somber, business for the region’s bankruptcy attorneys. In Wichita, Kan., the firm of bankruptcy attorney David Prelle Eron filed 10 farm bankruptcies in 2018, the most it has ever handled in one year. Wade Pittman, a bankruptcy attorney based in Madison, Wis., said his firm filed about 20 farm bankruptcies last year, ahead of past years, and he said he expects the numbers to continue to rise as milk prices remain stagnant.
Joe Peiffer, a Cedar Rapids, Iowa-based attorney, said his office is the busiest—and most profitable—it has ever been. Just before Christmas, he sent letters to eight farmers declining to represent them because he didn’t have sufficient staff to handle their cases promptly. He is doubling his office space and interviewing new attorneys to join the firm.
One factor driving bankruptcies is tighter lending standards, said Mr. Peiffer, including at agricultural banks, which are under pressure from regulators to exercise greater caution over their farm-loan portfolios.
“I’m dealing with people on century farms who may be losing them,” said Mr. Peiffer, whose own father sold his farm in the late 1980s.
One anecdote featured in the story recalls the rash of suicides among NYC cab drivers, who have struggled to pay the hefty loans attached to their taxi medallions thanks to the rise of Uber, Lyft and other ride sharing apps.
Darrell Crapp, the fifth-generation owner of a hog and cattle farm in Lancaster, Wis., returned to his home one day with a queasy feeling in his stomach, only to find his wife unconscious on their bathroom floor. She had swallowed a handful of pills. She survived, but Crapp attributed the incident to financial stressors as their farm teetered on the brink of bankruptcy.
It was a Sunday in April 2017 when a queasy feeling in Darrell Crapp’s stomach sent him rushing home. He found his wife, Diana, lying crumpled on the floor of their Lancaster, Wis., bathroom. She had swallowed a handful of pills.
Overwhelmed with debt and with little prospect of turning a profit that year, the Crapps knew BMO Harris Bank NA wouldn’t lend them money to plant. The bank had frozen the farm’s checking account.
Mrs. Crapp managed the fifth-generation corn, cattle and hog farm’s books. She had stayed up nights drafting dozens of budgets to try to stave off disaster, including 30-day, 60-day and 90-day budgets.
“It was too much for her,” Mr. Crapp, 63, said of his wife, who survived the incident.
Crapp Farms filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy the next month, with a total debt of $36 million.
After filing for bankruptcy, the last of Crapp’s land, a 197-acre patch that was homesteaded by his ancestors in the 1860s, will be auctioned off in the near future.
And after all that, Crapp may still need to declare Chapter 12 bankruptcy, a personal bankruptcy provision available to farmers and fishermen, to wipe his remaining debts.
“We haven’t won very many battles,” said Mr. Crapp. “The bank pretty much owns us.”
Unfortunately for American farmers hoping to reclaim the market share they’ve lost during the trade war with China, even if Trump can strike a trade deal with the Chinese that mandates purchases of US agricultural products – which the Chinese have already pledged to do – there’s still another wrinkle: Japan recently signed a revamped version of the TPP that will offer preferential treatment to Australia, New Zealand and other rivals to American farmers, potentially sealing off another market from US agricultural products.
iv)SWAMP STORIES
a)THE FIRST OF MANY SUBPOENAS TO BE ISSUED//Adam Schiff prepares one to subpoena phone records linked to the Trump Tower meeting.
( zerohedge)
German Industrial Production for December declined 0.4% m/m and 3.9% y/y. +0.8% m/m and -3.4% y/y were expected. November was revised to -1.4% m/m and -4% y/y from -1.9% m/m and -4.7% y/y.
EU Slashes Growth Forecasts and Warns Over Brexit, China
- EU Commission also lowers forecasts for France, Netherlands
- Growth estimate for Italy cut to 0.2% from 1.2% for 2019
@dlacalle_IA: As Eurozone economic slowdown worsens, German bond yields fall to lowest level in two years… Run to the hills. ECB has inflated zombie states’ debt anddeflation is on its way…
Stocks fall to session low after Larry Kudlow says U.S. and China are still far away on trade deal https://cnb.cx/2DWQcSy
We have stated several times over the past few months that China will copy Japan’s strategy of dealing with US trade negotiators – negotiate endlessly, issue conciliatory rhetoric but make no concessions while waiting for the usual American cave, which will partially be due to lobbyist pressure.
Nellie Ohr told Congress that Ukrainian lawmaker was Fusion GPS source
- Ohr told lawmakers… that one of Fusion GPS’s sources was a Ukrainian parliamentarian whose government has accused him of illegally meddling in the 2016 U.S. election.
- Ohr, a former Fusion GPS contractor, testified that Serhiy Leshchenko was a source for the Democrat-funded opposition research firm.
Ohr, whose husband is Justice Department official Bruce Ohr, testified that she was not aware of Leshchenko’s source information, but that she knew he was providing information to Fusion GPS, where she worked between late 2015 and the 2016 election…
https://dailycaller.com/2019/02/06/nellie-ohr-fusion-gps-leshchenko-ukraine/
Trump, Xi won’t meet before March 1 trade deadline
President Trump said Thursday he has no plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a self-imposed March 1 deadline for the two countries to reach a trade agreement…
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/429017-trump-xi-wont-meet-before-march-1-trade-deadline
Another Solomon blockbuster @jsolomonReports: Adam Schiff and Glenn Simpson had undisclosed meeting last year in Aspen, raising concern inside House intel committee – The Democrats’ chief defender of the dossier and the man whose firm produced it met serendipitously… Expect Republicans in Washington to launch some questions at the House’s new Intelligence Committee chairman… [Will Barr investigate or appoint a 2nd Special Counsel?]
end
Let us close out the week with this commentary courtesy of Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog
(courtesy Greg Hunter)
Have a great weekend Harvey
LikeLike