FEB 8/GOLD UP $4.00 TO $1314.75/SILVER UP 11 CENTS TO $15.82/GOLD AND SILVER DID QUITE WELL THIS WEEK DESPITE CHINA BEING OFF FOR THEIR LUNAR NEW YEAR HOLIDAY/SINGAPORE POLICE RAID THE GERMAN COMPANY, WIRECARD/SAN FRANCISCO FED GOVERNOR STATES THAT THE USA CENTRAL BANKERS ARE DISCUSSING USING QE MORE OFTEN/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1314.75 UP $4.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.82 UP 11 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1314.15

 

silver: $15.82

 

CHINA WILL BE BACK NEW WEEK AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIG RISE IN OUR PRECIOUS METALS ESPECIALLY WITH ALL OF THE BAD NEWS HITTING THE ECONOMIC SCENE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

FEBRUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 191 NOTICE(S) FOR 19100 OZ (0.594 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  9081 NOTICES FOR 908,100 OZ  (28.245 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEBRUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

8 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 40,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 528 for 2,645,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3422: UP 34

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3661 UP   $263

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 96/191

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,309.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/07/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 02/11/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
323 H HSBC 5
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 166
661 C JP MORGAN 19
661 H JP MORGAN 77
690 C ABN AMRO 20 6
737 C ADVANTAGE 5 33
800 C MAREX SPEC 8
880 H CITIGROUP 41
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 191 191
MONTH TO DATE: 9,081

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1954 CONTRACTS FROM 208,276 UP TO 210,110 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 1 CENT LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

546 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL, FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 546 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 546 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 546 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.730 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

AND NOW 2.595 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 4998 CONTRACTS (FOR TRADING DAYS TOTAL 5544 CONTRACTS) OR 27.720 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 792 CONTRACTS OR 3.960 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB:  27.720 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 3.96% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           245.18    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1954 DESPITE THE 1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 546 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2500 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 546 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1954 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.71 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.047 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 150% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 8 NOTICE(S) FOR 40,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND NOW FEB 2019:  2.595 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4958 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 476,635 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.35//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD  SIZED 4530 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 4530 CONTRACTS, DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 476,635. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN A VERY TINY SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 428 CONTRACTS: 4958 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4530 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS: 458 CONTRACTS OR 45,800, OZ = 1.33 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $0.35.

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 3148 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY : 36,311 CONTRACTS OR 3,631,100 OZ  OR 112.94 TONNES (7 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5159 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 112.94 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 112.94/2550 x 100% TONNES = 4.42% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4,744.3  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4958 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($0.35) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4530 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4530 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A TINY LOSS OF 428 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4530 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4958 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 1.333 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $0.35 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had:  191 notice(s) filed upon for 19100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY

 

 

THE FRAUD CONTINUES:

 

ANOTHER STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.59 TONNES

IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THIS IS THE ONLY SOURCE OF PAPER GOLD THAT THE CROOKS CAN USE TO STOP GOLD’S ASCENT.

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   803.29 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 803.29 tonnes.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTs  IN PRICE  TODAY:

A BIG CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ FROM THE SLV

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1954 CONTRACTS from 208,156 UP TO 210,110  AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

546 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MAY., FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 546 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1954 CONTRACTS TO THE 546 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN  OF 2530  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12.50 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..AND NOW 2.595 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY.

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 1 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 546 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 43.89 POINTS OR .16%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 418.11  PTS OR 2.01%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.37%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7422 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 52.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED //.

 ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED // LAST AT 6.7422 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7817: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

i) CHINA/USA

I think China does not understand Trump too well: they are confident that the President will drop tariffs even without concessions

( zerohedge)

ii)In order to get the Chinese to sign a deal, Trump is ready to ban Chinese telecom equipment from the  5 G network conference next week
( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

 

Details are leaked what the UK government will do if they do a hard BREXIT.  One novel thought would be to lower tariffs to zero and that would get goods moving in a hurry. I do not think that the damage will be as bad as some pundits let on..

( zerohedge)

ii)EU

Bergman of Gatestone comments on the EU’s plan for disinformation to  flow throughout Europe from the press and politicians. Free speech is being censored and this is not a way to run a democracy

(Judith Berman/Gatestone)

 

iii)Germany/Wirecard

We brought to you an explosive story that Wirecard, a big German payments company and a market darling had a whistleblower who was pounding the table that the company was engaged in accounting fraud.  It did not take long:  Singapore police have raided the companies offices in that city state

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

The USA finally comes out with a set target date for full withdrawal from Syria and it is by the end of April

( zerohedge)

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

Much to the anger of the USA and France, the EU will not block the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline which brings gas to Europe from Russia:

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)VENEZUELA/USA

VENEZUELA’S MADURO believes that the uSA will attack it shortly

( zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)The new Polyus mine in Russia (Siberia) is going to be a dandy as so far it holds 63 million oz  of gold. This would no doubt put Russian in the lead for gold production.
( Grove/WSJ)
ii)Non voting member Bullard comments that the USA will likely miss their supposed 2% target for the 8th straight year.  Chris Powell comments that these guys never shop for groceries or pay medical insurance premiums or just about any good.( Reuters/GATA)
iii)Why we own gold
(courtesy GoldTelegraph.com)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

ii)Market data/

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Another bombshell, San Francisco Fed clown governor states that central bankers are discussing if QE should be used more regularly and not in emergency..

gold should be up 500 dollars on this announcement.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

b)Mac Slavo highlights that an increasing number of middle class American citizens are living from paycheck to paycheck.

(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)

c)This is not good:  we are now witnessing farm bankruptcies surge to 10 year highs as the trade war bites into their operations.
( zerohedge)

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)THE FIRST OF MANY SUBPOENAS TO BE ISSUED//Adam Schiff prepares one to subpoena phone records linked to the Trump Tower meeting.

( zerohedge)

b)Meet AOC and her new Green plan .  Kim Strassel of the Wall Street Journal dissects the plan even though she was hysterical in laughter at all of AOC’s projects.

( zerohedge/Kim Strassel/Wall Street journal)

c)Trump is furious after he learns that Schiff and Glenn Simpson had a “Forest Gump like encounter.
( zerohedge)
d)The Dept. of Homeland Security issues a waiver to build the wall now as there has been a 69% spike in illegals arrested
( zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN FELL BY AN CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4958CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 476,635 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($0.35) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR THREE YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES., THE REASON FOR THE COLLAPSE IN OPEN INTEREST IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4530 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 4530, FOR DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4530 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  428 TOTAL CONTRACTSIN THAT 4530 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED4958COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:428 contracts OR 42,800  OZ OR 1.333 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of FEBRUARY and here the open interest stands at 889 contracts, and thus undergoing a loss of 31 contracts.  We had 28 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we LOST 3 contracts or 300 additional oz will NOT stand for delivery in this very active delivery month of February as they  morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a sizable fiat bonus. The comex is out of gold!@!

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after February is  March and here we GAINED 50 contracts to stand at 1896.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI FELL by 6327 contracts DOWN to 340,915 contracts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FEBRUARY 2019 TO THE  FEBRUARY 2018 COMEX GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FEB 1.2018: 20.07 TONNES OF GOLD STOOD FOR DELIVERY, BUT BY THE END OF MONTH ONLY 8.55 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 191 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 19,100 OZ. (0.5940 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1954  CONTRACTS FROM 208,156 UP TO 210,110(AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS  14 CONTRACTS, HAVING LOST 6 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 11 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 5 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 25,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY.

 

.

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 3444 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 128,468 CONTRACTS. AFTER MARCH, APRIL ROSE FROM 26 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS  TO STAND AT 39 FOR A GAIN OF 13.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ADVANCED BY 4859 CONTRACTS UP TO 48,429 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 2500 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1954 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 546 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2500 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH  FEB 2018 VS FEB 2019

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FEB 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 670,000 OZ.  AT THE MONTH’S CONCLUSION WE HAD 2.035 MILLION OZ STAND AS WE WITNESSED QUEUE JUMPING ON A REGULAR BASIS AT THE SILVER COMEX.

TODAY THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 2.050 MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 8 notice(s) filed for 40,000 OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  134,688 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  1800,581  contracts

comex gold volumes are getting extremely low as players just do not want to play in this casino.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

FEB 8/2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
514.400
oz
Scotia
16 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
191 notice(s)
 19,100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
698 contracts
(69,800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9081 notices
908,100 OZ
28.245 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) out of Scotia:  514.400 oz

(16 kilobars)

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  514.400 oz

 

we had 0  adjustments…

FOR THE FEB 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 191 contract(s) of which 77 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 19 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEBRUARY/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (908,100) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (889 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (191 x 100 oz per contract) equals 977,900 OZ OR 30.41 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of FEBRUARY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (8890 x 100 oz)  + {920)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (28 x 100 oz )which equals 977,900 oz standing OR 30.41 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY.

WE LOST CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 300 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY  MORPHED INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS. THE COMEX MUST BE VOID OF GOLD./

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.13 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 30.41 TONNES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY

OF WHICH 28.245 TONNES OF GOLD HAVE ALREADY BEEN SERVED UPON SO FAR THIS MONTH.

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  743,812.931 oz or   23.13 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,465,667.391 oz 263.31 tonnes

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 92 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

FEB INITIAL standings/SILVER

FEB 8 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
483,490.323  oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
472,505.000
????
oz
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
8
CONTRACT(S)
40,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
6 contracts
30,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 528 contracts

(2,640,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: 472,505.000  oz ???

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.26 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.61% of all official comex silver. (150.26 million/296 million)

 

i) Into everybody else:  zero

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 472,505.000   oz exact weight

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of CNT:  483,490.323

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 483,490.323     oz

 

we had 0 adjustment..

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  88.636 million

total dealer + customer silver:  296.883 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the FEBRUARY 2019. contract month is represented by 8 contract(s) FOR  40,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 528 x 5,000 oz = 2,640,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (14) and the number of notices served upon today (8x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEBRUARY/2019 contract month: 528(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB( 14) -number of notices served upon today (8)x 5000 oz equals 2,670,000 oz of silver standing for the FEBRUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

WE GAINED 5 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 25,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND ALSO NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES AT THE COMEX UNABATED.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  61,380 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 82,214 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 82214 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 411 million OZ  58.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.62% (FEB 6/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -.79% to NAV (FEB 6 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.62%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.29/TRADING 12.83/DISCOUNT 3.48

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.00/THE CROOKS WITHDREW ANOTHER HUGE 6.59 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.29 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP 35 CENTS/ANOTHER PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 811.82 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 813.29 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i)A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.37 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM THE GLD AND THEN ii) a A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.40 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $.65: A HUGE HUGE MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87..SO FAR IN JANUARY: 28.56 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $6.15/A HUGE ADDITION OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.64 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $17.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

jAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70?: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP 50 CENTS: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD UP A TINY $.85 A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE FRAUDULENT GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

 

 

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FEB 8/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 803.29 tonnes

*IN LAST 544 TRADING DAYS: 131.76 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 444 TRADING DAYS: A NET 28.25 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999  MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000  OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ.

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 129,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY  RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG DEPOSIT OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 INTO THE SLV INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.597 MILLION OZ.

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.408 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.659 MILLION OZ/

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: A HUGE LOSS OF 938,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.179 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/SLV IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.189 MILLION OZ/

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/NO DOUBT THE MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF PAPER SILVER WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.895 MILLION OZ./INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110 MILLION OZ/

JAN 16/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.158 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.005 MILLION OZ/

JAN 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 469,000 OZ FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.163 MILLION OZ/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

 

 

FEB 8/2019:

 

Inventory 308.999 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.23/ and libor 6 month duration 2.77

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .54

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.56%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.95

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.39

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Store Gold Bullion In Safest Ways – Learning from Tragic Venezuela Today

– Store gold bullion in the safest ways possible and learn from Venezuela’s gold battle with the Bank of England and Trump’s White House 
– What in the world is happening in Venezuela and to the people of Venezuela’s gold?
– How you store gold and invest in gold is vitally important in these uncertain times

As a sovereign nation, Venezuela should have the right to take possession of and sell their gold on the open market. As sovereign individuals, we should too.

It is a difficult issue as the recent election is in doubt and the concern is that the euros (or dollars) garnered by the sale of the people’s gold reserves may be squandered trying to prop up the Maduro government rather than looking after the humanitarian needs of the people of Venezuela.

Central banks are repatriating and taking possession of their gold and indeed buying gold today. This tragic story highlights the importance of all people owning gold in the safest ways possible.

We must all become our own central banks!

What are the ‘7 Key Gold & Silver Storage Must Haves’?

1. How to store gold bullion and the importance of owning individually segregated and allocated coins and bars
2. Can you visit, view and collect your bullion whenever you want and is liquidity and competitive pricing ensured?
3. Chain of integrity that ensures the authenticity of your store of gold bullion
4. Bailment and legal structures that best protects the investor
5. Risks inherent in ETF, electronic & digital gold (online gold platforms or bullion vaults)
6. Vital insurance considerations to know: Ensure that your bullion provider and its storage partners have adequate insurance cover
7. Can you visit, view and collect your gold bullion whenever you want and is liquidity and competitive pricing ensured?

Click Here to Access 7 Key Gold and Silver Storage Must-Haves

News and Commentary

Gold posts longest streak of declines in almost 2 years (MarketWatch.com)

Gold hovers near one-week low on buoyant dollar (Reuters.com)

Shares stumble on fresh fears about global growth, trade (Reuters.com)

Cannabis craze weeds out junior mining field (Reuters.com)

Fed’s Kaplan reiterates case for pause on rate hikes (Reuters.ie)

Carney Counts Brexit Cost as BOE Sees Weakest Growth in a Decade (Bloomberg.com)

Wells Fargo outage affects mobile, online banking, ATMs (UPI.com)


Why Italy’s Debts Are Europe’s Big Problem. Source: GFMS

All of a Sudden, the New Year Market Rally Looks Under Threat (Bloomberg.com)

Central Banks Haven’t Bought This Much Gold Since Nixon Closed the Gold Window (Goldseek.com)

Indian state to give £410 gold to every bride from a poor family in pre-election giveaway (Telegraph.com)

Russia’s new shield against U.S. sanctions: A Siberian gold mine (WSJ.com)

Wells Fargo customers are furious as second service outage in a week means they can’t use their debit cards or access their online accounts (BusinessInsider.com)

4 Steps to Recession-Proofing Your Small Business (Preview.Inc.com)

Listen on iTunes,Blubrry & SoundCloud  & watch on YouTube above

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

07 Feb: USD 1,310.00, GBP 1009.49 & EUR 1,154.11 per ounce
06 Feb: USD 1,313.35, GBP 1013.51 & EUR 1,152.86 per ounce
05 Feb: USD 1,314.00, GBP 1009.15 & EUR 1,150.67 per ounce
04 Feb: USD 1,311.00, GBP 1004.36 & EUR 1,145.55 per ounce
01 Feb: USD 1,320.75, GBP 1008.54 & EUR 1,150.83 per ounce
31 Jan: USD 1,322.50, GBP 1006.95 & EUR 1,152.16 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

07 Feb: USD 15.71, GBP 12.20 & EUR 13.87 per ounce
06 Feb: USD 15.73, GBP 12.15 & EUR 13.82 per ounce
05 Feb: USD 15.86, GBP 12.19 & EUR 13.89 per ounce
04 Feb: USD 15.74, GBP 12.05 & EUR 13.75 per ounce
01 Feb: USD 16.01, GBP 12.26 & EUR 13.96 per ounce
31 Jan: USD 16.07, GBP 12.24 & EUR 13.99 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Gold Surges In Aussie Dollars as Aussie Property Market Declines Sharply
– “Right” Trump and “Left” Ocasio-Cortez Will Join Forces And Debase The Dollar
– 7 Financial Truths In An Uncertain 2019
– Central Banks Buy More Gold In 2018 Than Any Year Since 1967
– Gold Breaks Out of Range After Dovish Fed – Further 1% Gain to $1,321/oz
– U.S.-China War May Be “Just A Shot Away”
– Buy Bitcoin or Gold? Bitcoin Buyers Investing In Gold In 2019
– Gold Consolidates Above $1,300 After 1.2% Gain Last Week
– Gold Bullion Will Protect From Politicians, Brexit and Increasing Market Volatility In 2019
– Brexit – The Pin That Bursts London Property Bubble
– Davos: David Attenborough Warns We Are Damaging The World ‘Beyond Repair’
– Gold May Return 25% In 2019 Given Brexit, Trump and Other Risks – IG TV Interview GoldCore
– Brexit, EU, Germany, China and Yellow Vests In 2019 – Something Wicked This Way Comes

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
The new Polyus mine in Russia (Siberia) is going to be a dandy as so far it holds 63 million oz  of gold. This would no doubt put Russian in the lead for gold production.
(courtesy Grove/WSJ)

Russia’s new shield against U.S. sanctions: A Siberian gold mine

 Section: 

By Thomas Grove
The Wall Street Journal
Thursday, February 7, 2019

SUKHOI LOG, Russia — Beneath this plot of land in southeastern Siberia lie vast stores of gold, according to Russia’s biggest gold producer, Polyus PJSC , and tapping them could provide the Russian central bank with a huge and nearly sanction-proof backstop for its currency.

Tests commissioned by the company last year and undertaken by Australia-based AMC Consultants, along with a scoping study conducted in 2018, determined that there are 63 million ounces of gold at Sukhoi Log, Polyus has told investors. While independent mining analysts haven’t confirmed that estimate on their own, many of them refer to Sukhoi Log as one of the world’s largest untapped gold deposits.

… 

And that may just be the beginning,” said Polyus geologist Svetlana Deys. “The gold could extend far beyond the reach of the Sukhoi Log license.” Polyus says the prospective mine holds approximately a quarter of all Russia’s known gold underground.

The news is good for both Polyus and the Russian government. Unlike other producers that move their bullion on world markets, Polyus sells its gold exclusively to large Russian state banks, which then resell it to the country’s central bank. Once mining begins, the bank can use the mine’s gold to support its ruble currency or sell it for extra foreign currency in times of crisis.

Gold has become a major holding in Russia’s central bank reserves, with its share nearly double what it was in 2014, when the bank started dumping its U.S. Treasury and dollar holdings amid increased tensions between Russia and the U.S.

Last year, the central bank’s deputy head, Dmitry Tulin, told lawmakers that while gold prices may fluctuate, “it’s a 100-percent guarantee against legal and political risks.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-new-shield-from-u-s-sanctions-a-sib…

end

Non voting member Bullard comments that the USA will likely miss their supposed 2% target for the 8th straight year.  Chris Powell comments that these guys never shop for groceries or pay medical insurance premiums or just about any good.

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

No inflation? These guys must not shop for groceries or pay medical insurance premiums

 Section: 

Fed’s Bullard Says U.S. Likely to Miss Inflation Target for Eighth Year

From Reuters
Thursday, February 7, 2019

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve is likely to miss its 2 percent inflation target for an eighth straight year in 2019, a further sign the U.S. central bank’s recent round of rate increases should end, James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, said today.

Bullard said the pricing of inflation-protected securities showed that investors late last year began lowering their expectations about inflation, and now see the Fed missing its 2 percent target not just this year but for years to come.

The Fed “needs to tread carefully going forward,” Bullard said in remarks prepared for delivery at St. Cloud State University in Minnesota, his alma mater. Rate increases so far have “already been sufficiently pre-emptive over the last two years to contain upside inflation risk,” said Bullard, who is a voter on interest rate policy this year. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-bullard/feds-bullard-u-s-like…

end

Fed’s Bullard says interest-rate policy stance is now ‘a little bit restrictive’

Published: Feb 8, 2019 9:44 a.m. ET

Says Fed should be more worried about low inflation than any surge in prices

By

GREG ROBB
SENIOR ECONOMICS REPORTER

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has been dovish since 2016 and his colleagues on the central bank last month shifted sharply in his direction.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Thursday said he thinks the central bank’s current interest-rate policy stance is slightly restrictive at the time when the central bank should be more concerned about the slower growth and weaker inflation expected this year.

Gross domestic product was forecast to be “considerably slower” than the expected 3% annual rate this year and the risks are tilted to the downside, he said. At the same time, markets expect the Fed to miss its 2% inflation target in 2019, for the eighth year in a row, he added.

In this environment, the Fed should be more worried about missing on its inflation target to the low side rather than any spike in inflation, he said.

“We have to, even today, be more worried about missing to the low side than the high side,” he said.

Bullard said interest-rate policy at the moment will push inflation down. “We’re a little bit restrictive here and we might be putting downward pressure instead of upward pressure on inflation,” he said.

Bullard said he was not advocating for an interest-rate cut. “I’m pretty happy where rates are today,” he said. The Fed can afford to “wait and see” how the economy develops.

But he said the Fed “should guard against the downside more.”

While it is uncertain, Bullard said the Fed moved into restrictive territory in December when it pushed interest rates up to a level between 2.25% and 2.5%. Bullard thinks the neutral rate is closer to 2%.

“We’re a little bit restrictive, but I recognize I’m kind of alone on the committee saying that,” Bullard said. The median forecast of Fed participants says the neutral is closer to 3%.

Bullard has been one of the most dovish regional Fed bank presidents, and the FOMC moved sharply in his direction at its meeting last month. Bullard is a voting member of the Fed’s interest-rate committee this year.

Bullard said the market turmoil in the fourth quarter was a signal that investors thought the Fed was going to tighten too much.

“Markets were taking the Fed on board and taking on the idea the Fed was going to continue to raise rates. I think the market judgment was this was going to lead to lower growth in the future and less inflation in the future,” he said.

At its January meeting, the Fed said it didn’t know if the next move would be to raise or lower rates. Six weeks before, policy makers had penciled in two more rate increases in their “dot plot.”

The St. Louis Fed president suggested the “dot plot” should be scrapped.

“I would very much advocate that [the FOMC] revisit the dot plot and reassess how much forward guidance we want to give in this environment,” he said.

The dot plot was useful when interest rates were stuck at zero and the Fed wanted markets not to worry about preemptive rate increases.

“I think it has become too prescriptive about the future interest-rate path,” he said. “It builds in too much expectation that that is a baseline path from which we have a high bar to deviate, and that is causing the committee problems,” he said.

“I think it caused us problems in December where financial-market turmoil was occurring but we had already signaled we were very likely to move in December, and therefore we got into a meeting where maybe we couldn’t react as appropriately as we might have been able to do if we didn’t have the dot plot there,” he added.

Bullard had argued against the December rate hike.

Bullard said the continual misses of the 2% inflation target has also hurt the Fed’s credibility.

“I do think this has damaged us a little bit, to have continually missed on the low side and continually saying it is due to special factors,” Bullard said.

-END-

Opinion:





iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

Why we own gold
(courtesy GoldTelegraph.com)

 

end
This one caught me a little off guard.  I am checking into it..

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

*Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

*Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

-END-

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7422/CLOSED

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7837   /shanghai bourse CLOSED /CHINESE NEW YEAR FOR THE WEEK

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 43.89 POINTS OR .16%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 418.11  POINTS OR 2.01%

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.57/Euro FALLS TO 1.1337

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.74/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 52.40 and Brent: 61.84

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED   /OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.11%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.95% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.23%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.84: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.99

3k Gold at $1313.25 silver at:15797   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 7/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.02

3m oil into the 52 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.74 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0016 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1355 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.11%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.64% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.98%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.2494

 

Rally Ends: Global Stocks Break 6-Week Winning Streak; Iron Ore Soars

One day after the post-Christmas rally appeared to finally reverse, when the S&P posted its 3rd biggest loss of 2019, overnight US equity futures and Asian markets continued to sink as concerns over economic growth and the lack of any sign of a resolution to the U.S.-China trade row pushed global stock markets toward their first weekly loss since December, even as European stocks were steady.

As a result, global shares fell for a third straight day on Friday and were set to post their first weekly loss in seven. The MSCI All-Country World Index was down 0.3% on the day. It was down for a third straight day and was set to break a six-week streak of gains.

Treasuries and bunds edged higher, with the German 10-year bund yield falling closer towards the zero percent mark and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hitting its lowest point in a week, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index headed for its best week since August as traders rushed to havens amid a broader risk off mood. The Australian dollar fell as traders positioned for an interest-rate cut, while the pound slid as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May looked to break an impasse over her Brexit plan.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was mixed, with drops in automakers offsetting increases in chemicals and media shares. Weak earnings saw a subdued open for European stocks although most major indices climbed into the black for the day, putting the pan-European STOXX 600 in positive territory before fading -0.3% at publication time. Autos were the worst-performer sector in the broader index, declining for a third day amid growing China trade war fears. Valeo (-3.8%), Faurecia (-2.3%), Hella (-1.9%) among leading fallers; Fiat drops 1.4% as sector gauge retreats 1.1%. Spain’s IBEX fell half a percent. As usual, there was fresh dismal economic news out of Europe, which today came from Italy, where Industrial Output plunged -5.5% Y/Y, and the Netherlands, whose Industrial Production plunged 4.2%

 

Following the latest Industrial Production data out of Europe, there can be no doubt the continent is now in a recession

Earlier, Asian markets dropped, with MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan shedding 0.5%, easing back from a four-month peak touched the previous day.

The European Commission on Thursday slashed its forecasts for euro zone economic growth this year and next, stoking concern that a global slowdown is spreading to Europe as businesses and investors grapple with trade friction.

Contracts on the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Composite all declined alongside shares in Asia following news that President Donald Trump is unlikely to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping before the March 1 deadline for more tariffs. The renewed fears over further protectionist measures also pushed emerging market equities lower. China’s markets remain shut for Lunar New Year

Meanwhile, the global economic picture is becoming gloomier by the day: central banks and governments from Brussels to Sydney cut growth forecasts. As Bloomberg notes, hours after the European Commission slashed forecasts for the euro region’s major economies Thursday, the Bank of England said the U.K. may grow at its slowest pace in a decade. Then Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its growth and inflation forecasts Friday, while expectations have dimmed for the Bank of Japan to edge toward normalizing its monetary stimulus, joining the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in signaling policy shifts. The Fed has all but abandoned plans for further rate hikes, while the ECB also sounded less certain that it will start tightening policy this year.

“If there was a single takeaway from the last few days it would appear to be this – ever since the Fed started to backtrack on its growth expectations for the U.S. economy, the global economic skies, to coin an aphorism from the recent World Bank report, have started to darken further,” said Michael Hewson, chief markets analyst at CMC Markets in London. Hewson added that the tone in markets on the day wasn’t helped by remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow, that U.S.-China trade talks still had sizable differences to overcome.

In a report last month titled ‘Darkening Skies’, the World Bank said global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.9 percent in 2019, compared with 3 percent in 2018.

“Many of the central banks are reacting to the fact that the global economic situation has worsened,” Komal Sri-Kumar, founder and president at Sri-Kumar Global Strategies told Bloomberg TV.

Adding to the dovish tide wrapping the world, overnight the Fed’s uberdove Jim Bullard said FOMC has moved in a more dovish direction and needs to tread carefully moving forward amid weak inflation and other signals the economy is facing greater risks than had expected. Bullard also stated the Fed is likely to end up with a larger than anticipated balance sheet and that he considers current level of rates as restrictive, while he sees growth this year at 2.5% and considerably weaker than the prior year, with risks for an even sharper slowdown.

Elsewhere, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer are expected to kick off another round of trade talks in Beijing next week to push for a deal to protect American intellectual property and avert a March 2 increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.  However, as reported last night, Trump is expected to sign an executive order just prior to the deadline, banning the use of Chinese telecom equipment in the US.

In rates, the flight to safety trade prevailed, with 10-year Treasury yields extended overnight declines to a one-week low of 2.6393%. The 20-year Japanese government bond yield dropped to a 27-month trough of 0.400 percent, while the New Zealand 10Y yield dropped to a record low. In Europe, the 10-year German bund yield fell to 0.105 percent on Thursday, its lowest since November 2016 after the European Commission’s sharp cuts to growth and inflation forecasts.

In currencies, the Bloomberg dollar index rose as much as 0.1%; set for 0.9% increase this week while the euro dropped a fifth day, its longest losing streak since October and on course for its biggest weekly loss in more than four months against the dollar, though traders seemed to be puzzled that it was finding support. The single currency was 0.1 percent lower on the day at $1.13240 after dropping to a two-week low of $1.1325 the previous day. It was on track for a 1% weekly loss, its steepest weekly decline since September.

Australia’s dollar dropped to a five-week low after the central bank cut its growth and inflation forecasts. Aussie bonds rallied along with New Zealand’s, where the benchmark yield slipped to a record low. The two nations have led growth concerns this week, with their currencies sliding more than 2 percent. Yield on Australia’s 3-year bonds dropped to its lowest since November 2016 as overnight-index swaps signaled more than an even chance of policy easing this year. RBA Governor Philip Lowe shifted Wednesday to a neutral policy outlook, even before the release of the central bank’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy Friday. FInally, USDJPY rose 0.1% to 109.89, reversing an earlier drop; the pair has gained 0.3% for the week.

In commodities, Iron ore futures topped $90 a ton to hit the highest level since 2014 on concern that the increasingly severe crisis at top producer Vale SA will reduce global supplies.

Oil fell, pulled down by worries over a global economic slowdown, although OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against Venezuela provided crude with some support. U.S. crude futures slipped half a percent to $52.39 per barrel, extending losses after dropping 2.5 percent in the previous session. Brent crude was down 0.3 percent at $61.47 per barrel.

In the latest Brexit news, UK PM May approached Labour MPs to table an amendment for the withdrawal motion and will guarantee the UK matches EU regarding workers’ rights post-Brexit following a deal with the Labour Party.

Scheduled earnings include Exelon and Phillips 66, and there are no major economic releases scheduled.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,696.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.02% to 360.02
  • MXAP down 1.1% to 154.81
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 510.80
  • Nikkei down 2% to 20,333.17
  • Topix down 1.9% to 1,539.40
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 27,946.32
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 2,618.23
  • Sensex down 0.9% to 36,624.04
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,071.46
  • Kospi down 1.2% to 2,177.05
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 0.107%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1327
  • Brent Futures down 0.08% to $61.58/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 9.0 bps to 2.589%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 1.224%
  • Brent Futures down 0.08% to $61.58/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.06% to $1,309.38
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 96.67

Top Overnight News

  • Amazon.com Inc. Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos accused the National Enquirer and its publisher David Pecker of extortion and blackmail, stepping up a war of words between the world’s richest man and a confidant of President Trump
  • Prime Minister Theresa May and her top lawyer will travel to Dublin on Friday as she races to forge a breakthrough with European leaders resisting changes to their Brexit plan
  • Donald Trump said he won’t meet Chinese President Jinping before a March 1 deadline to avert higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, intensifying fears the two won’t strike a deal before the end of a 90-day truce
  • Cracks are appearing in the U.K. labor market, with the number of people placed in permanent jobs falling last month for the first time since the 2016 vote to leave the European Union
  • Oil headed for its biggest weekly loss this year as pessimism over the prospects for global economic growth damped the outlook for demand, while U.S. output stayed at record levels
  • A series of soft data out of the euro area and the common currency’s inability to hold above $1.14 provide the impetus for another rally in risk reversals, puts over calls
  • Italian industrial production fell for a fourth straight month in December, in a sign the recession that started late last year may persist
  • The rally in Asia’s bond markets is picking up pace as growth forecasts are trimmed day-by-day and traders rush to reprice the odds of central banks turning dovish

Asian stocks traded negative with global risk appetite subdued by growth concerns and after trade-related fears resurfaced. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was led lower by underperformance in the energy sector following the recent drop in crude prices and with financials downbeat amid a management shake-up due to fraud allegations at NAB. Nikkei 225 (-2.0%) was pressured by a firmer currency and as individual stocks also reacted to earnings, while the Hang Seng (-0.2%) suffered a bout of post-holiday blues on return from the Lunar New Year celebrations, as hopes for a quick trade deal were dampened after US President Trump ruled out meeting with his Chinese counterpart prior to the tariff deadline. In addition, reports suggested that President Trump is likely to sign an order banning Chinese telecoms equipment next week which subsequently weighed on ZTE shares. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as the widespread risk averse tone underpinned safe-haven demand and BoJ presence in the market for nearly JPY 1.2tln of JGBs with maturities of up to 10yrs, which also coincided with declines in long-term yields with the 20yr, 30yr and 40yr yields at their lowest in more than 2 years. RBA Statement on Monetary Policy stated the probability of rate hike or cut is more evenly balanced than previous and that the board does not see a strong case for a near term adjustment in rates. RBA noted that higher rates would be appropriate at some point if progress is made but added that they might lower rates if there is sustained increase in unemployment and too low inflation, while it cut its GDP and inflation forecasts through to June 2020. (Newswires)

Top Asian News

  • Thailand’s Movie Star Princess Is Running for Prime Minister
  • Chinese Stocks Decline in Hong Kong on Renewed Trade Concerns
  • Anil Ambani Group Says Sale of Pledged Shares Motivated, Illegal
  • Indonesia’s Current Account Deficit Widens to Four Year- High

Major European equities have been flat throughout much of the session [Euro Stoxx 50 Unch], with some mild outperformance seen in the FTSE MIB (+0.1%) where Bper Banca (+0.8%) and UniCredit (+1.9%) are in the green following earnings and the Co’s CEO stating they do not see any upcoming cross border banking mergers respectively. Sectors are mostly in the green, with IT names leading. Other notable movers include Wirecard (+2.7%) who are towards the top of the Stoxx 600 having retraced some of the prior sessions’ losses following the FT reporting an analysis of the Co’s accounting scandal; recently the Co. have stated they are taking legal action against the FT over the reporting as they believe that no misconduct has taken place. Skanska AB (-6.9%) are at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 following their earnings and the Co. stating they are planning a dividend cut. Elsewhere, L’Oreal (+0.4%) are slightly firmer following their earnings, and Travis Perkins (+1.5%) are higher after being upgraded at RBC. US are reportedly considering 3 potential car tariff options, one of which includes a 10% levy; according to German press.

Top European News

  • Germany’s Scholz Says EU Stands by Ireland in Brexit Impasse
  • Italy’s Escalating Feud With Macron Puts Business at Risk
  • Italy’s Industrial Output Drop May Signal Longer Recession
  • European Bank Valuations Fell ‘Beyond What’s Realistic’: Goldman

In FX, looking at the AUD/GBP/EUR – It’s tight at the foot of the G10 table, with the Aussie and Pound looking particularly weak, but the single currency also on the precipice after more signs of Italy’s economic woes via a sharp decline in IP. Aud/Usd is only just off fresh lows of 0.7060 having filled bids and tested chart support around 0.7075 in wake of RBA’s SOMP that effectively confirmed the shift in policy stance to neutral from tightening signalled by Governor Lowe earlier in the week. However, hefty option interest between 0.7090-0.7105 may provide some respite with 1.1 bn expiries rolling off at the NY cut. Meanwhile, Cable has lost more recovery momentum from just shy of the 1.3000 mark after BoE super Thursday, as UK PM May returned from Brussels empty handed with the Irish border backstop issue unresolved. A 1.2926 Fib level is now being probed, ahead of 1.2900 and then the 100 DMA at 1.2893. Back to Eur/Usd, the headline pair is currently cresting yesterday’s 1.1325 low, and if breached 1.1300 looms before stronger downside chart support at 1.1289.

  • CHF/NZD/JPY/CAD – All relative outperformers, or at least holding up better vs a generally firm Usd as the DXY nudges back up to 96.700. The Franc is resisting 1.0030 and the Kiwi is still pivoting 0.6750, albeit partly due to favourable cross flows as Aud/Nzd retreats below 1.0500 again. Usd/Jpy is consolidating between 109.50-110.00 and the Loonie has pared some losses after declining through 1.3300 to 1.3330 at one stage, perhaps in preparation for Canadian unemployment data due later.

In commodities, Brent (+0.3%) and WTI (-0.2%) prices have seen some modest strengthening throughout the European session, after prices were largely subdued overnight. Recent news flow from Energy Intel has seen sources state that OPEC and partners are heading towards a rollover of the current deal in April; which follows yesterdays comments from Russian Energy Minister Novak stating that the charter on indefinite cooperation with OPEC could be discussed in April. Elsewhere, TransCanada have declared a force majeure on keystone oil flows; and the two Canadian pipelines which were shut due to a potential leak are yet to reopen. Looking ahead we have the Baker Hughes Rig Count, which previously saw total rigs fall by 14 to 1055. Gold was unchanged, continuing from the uneventful price action seen overnight. Elsewhere, Vale has informed of a pre-emptive evacuation of around 500 people in the Gongo Soco iron mine area. Separately, copper prices have fallen for the second day on demand concerns following poor data from several global economies, including German industrial output; although, copper is in the green for the week.

Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got further December industrial productions prints in France and Italy, and December trade data in Germany. There is no data due in the US however the Fed’s Daly is due to speak tonight at an economic forecast conference. It’s also a quiet day for earnings with Exelon and Hasbro the most notable.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing major scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets appear to have finally woken up from their mid-winter hibernation this week. Indeed we’ve seen a decent rally across rates over the last twenty-four hours while risk assets have finally had a bit of a session to forget. We’ll touch on some of the newsflow shortly but just quickly on markets and in particular bonds, we saw 10y Treasuries and Bunds close -3.7bps and -4.7bps lower last night with Treasuries also down a further -1.4bps overnight. Bunds outperformed most other European countries however yields were still generally speaking up to 4bps lower with the exception of BTPs which sold-off +9.0bps. That puts the Bund-BTP spread at 284bps and the most since December 11th last year. In fact that spread has widened 42bps in just over a week.

Bunds are now at 0.112% and the last time they closed lower was 835 days ago. Back then, ECB QE was in full flow with €80bn of net purchases being made per month. Core CPI in the Euro Area was also lower than it was now at +0.8% yoy and Arsenal were sitting joint top of the Premier League which is a depressing thought. The last time OAT yields were lower was November 2016 and Dutch yields were last lower also in October 2016, so this isn’t just a Bund story.

If we look back at yields since the ECB cut the deposit rate to -0.40% in March 2016, nominal Bund yields sit in the 86th percentile over that time (with 100 being the most expensive). OATs sit in the 80th while yields in Spain, Portugal and Netherlands sit in the 85th, 88th and 96th percentiles respectively. Contrast that to BTPs which sit in just the 10th percentile. So we’re very much still at the extremes. A final point on this stats binge is that the Bund curve is now negative again up until the 9y maturity point and amazingly the amount of negative yielding debt in the world is now back up at $8.9tn and up over 50% from October. You can be excused for feeling all a bit Déjà vu reading this.

As for risk assets, well the S&P 500 (-0.94%) is now more or less back to where it closed last week while the NASDAQ (-1.18%) fell a bit more. Earnings were actually fairly mixed however Twitter (-9.84%) did grab some headlines after disappointing the market with its Q1 sales forecast. White House advisor Kudlow’s comments about there being a “pretty sizeable distance” to go in US-China trade talks also didn’t help with the CNBC headline that Trump and Xi were unlikely to meet before March 1st adding further fuel to the fire. Without a meeting by the deadline, it becomes more likely that the US will raise tariffs as planned. At best, we might see an interim agreement to continue negotiating but it’s not obvious if this would be risk friendly and if instead the US just continues with upping the ante. Time will tell. On the other key area of US policy, there was some encouragement that the two parties may be approaching a budget deal to avoid another shutdown next Friday with Republican Senator Richard Shelby saying that “we hope by Monday or over the weekend” to finalize a deal.

Meanwhile, moves were similar here in Europe with the STOXX 600 (-1.49%) finally bringing to an end it’s run of seven consecutive gains after falling by the most since December 27th. The DAX (-2.67%) closed lower by the most in 40 sessions and the FTSE MIB (-2.59%), also by the most in 40 sessions, while European Banks were hit to the tune of -3.01%. The pain spread to EM also where the MSCI EM index closed -0.62%. With all that, volatility has finally picked up again with the biggest move for the VIX (+0.99pts to 16.37), VSTOXX (+2.55pts to 16.17) and MOVE (+1.53pts to 48.97) indices in 8, 28 and 24 days respectively. Meanwhile HY spreads were +11bps and +7bps wider in the US and Europe, respectively, while WTI oil down was -2.54%. It’s worth noting that flying under the radar in all the moves yesterday was three-month USD LIBOR falling by the most in just under 10 years with some confusion in the market as to why the move was so severe.

This morning in Asia, markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (-1.94%) leading the decline while the Hang Seng (-0.49%) – which has now reopened – is also trading lower along with the Kospi (-1.16%). The good news is that volumes are slowly returning to more normal levels. China’s markets remain closed today but will reopen on Monday. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.43%. In commodities, iron ore prices are up another +4.30% this morning to take them to the highest since 2014. Despite that the Aussie Dollar (-0.31%) is weaker however the RBA did make the move to downgrade growth and inflation forecasts this morning.

Coming back to yesterday, the spark which really seemed to ignite yesterday’s moves appeared to be the latest European Commission growth forecasts. At a headline level, they cut the 2019 growth forecast for the Euro Area from 1.9% to 1.3%. Germany was cut from 1.8% to 1.1% and Italy from 1.2% to 0.2%. What’s a bit puzzling is that the Italy forecast was leaked in an ANSA report on Wednesday. So it was a bit of a delayed reaction. At this point it’s worth noting that our European Economics team recently cut their 2019 forecast for the Euro Area from 1.2% to 0.9%. They’ve also pegged Italy at 0.3%. They believe that the Euro Area is in a recessionary orbit – close to recession, at risk of being pulled into one temporarily given the non-linear dynamics of recessions, but unlikely to linger in recession unless risks like no-deal Brexit, trade conflict or a China crisis materialise. See more in their report here and our global report from the day prior here .

In the midst of the rates move we also had a BoE meeting to digest. The reaction for GBP which initially sold-off as much as -0.60% and then rallied +1.11% from the lows (and eventually closed +0.15%) suggested there was a bit of both for the hawks and doves however in fairness there were Brexit headlines in the middle of this. Just on the BoE firstly, rates were unanimously left unchanged as expected. However the minutes struck a more dovish tone with risks surrounding the external and domestic environment elevated. Indeed they pointed to a sharper and more persistent slowdown to global growth than previously anticipated. On the domestic front, downgrades to the economic outlook were also material. Interestingly, despite the weaker outlook in the near term, the MPC retained its tightening bias, calling for “limited” and “gradual” rate hikes over the forecast period. In summary though our economists tone reflected a more cautious one from the December meeting with Carney doing little to push back on more dovish current market pricing in the front end of the UK curve. While the MPC maintained the need for ongoing rate hikes, a rate hike before August remains off the table, in our colleagues view. They retain their call for one rate hike in August, albeit with weaker conviction.

As for the latest Brexit news, PM May is due to travel to Dublin today and have dinner with Irish PM Varadkar with May’s attorney general Cox meeting counterpart Woulfe this morning to discuss the Irish border issue. Yesterday we found out that May plans to stick with the February 14th deadline to present the Brexit motion in Parliament. The EU stance hasn’t changed however with Juncker rebuffing a demand from the UK to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement while the EU and UK have agreed to meet again before the end of February with time perilously close to running out now.

Over at the Fed we heard from Kaplan yesterday, who largely reiterated his recent comments in support of a 1-2 quarter pause in rate hikes. He said that current uncertainties “are not going to get resolved in weeks” and “it gives the Fed at a minimum the luxury of being patient”. Kaplan is not a voter this year and has been slightly more dovish than the FOMC’s median, but his comments likely reflect the current consensus view. Elsewhere, Vice-Chair Clarida gave an upbeat assessment of the economy by saying “the US economy is, by many measures, either at or close to full employment; growth is either at or perhaps somewhat above estimates of trend growth and inflation is right at the Fed’s 2% inflation objective”. MNI also quoted Harker saying that the decision on the level of Fed balance sheet is likely to be taken in the near future.

Staying across the pond, initial jobless claims data are becoming more and more relevant at the moment given the recent uptick with yesterday’s 234k reading – while down from 253k the prior week – still above expectations for 221k.The recent extreme weather is likely to be having an impact so we’ll need to see if there is some moderation over the coming weeks but it’s worth seeing how this develops. Prior to this Germany’s December industrial production reading was soft (-0.4% mom vs. +0.8% expected) albeit perhaps as expected given recent soft factory data in the country.

Finally, to the day ahead, where this morning we’ve got further December industrial productions prints in France and Italy, and December trade data in Germany. There is no data due in the US however the Fed’s Daly is due to speak tonight at an economic forecast conference. It’s also a quiet day for earnings with Exelon and Hasbro the most notable.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 43.89 POINTS OR .16%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 418.11  PTS OR 2.01%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.37%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7422 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 52.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED //.

 ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED // LAST AT 6.7422 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7817: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

I think China does not understand Trump too well: they are confident that the President will drop tariffs even without concessions

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Confident Trump Will Drop Tariffs Even Without Concessions

With just three weeks left until the deadline for the US and China to reach a trade deal, there has been remarkably little progress: after several months of talks, the two sides are still far apart on major issues, as Larry Kudlow admitted earlier on Thursday, even as new multibillion-dollar U.S. tariffs are set to kick in next month if no accord is achieved.

According to the WSJ  – with US negotiators set to meet their counterparts in Beijing next week in an effort to strike a comprehensive accord that President Trump insists include “deep structural changes” to China’s economy – US Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who are heading the talks next week, “lack the usual essentials for a comprehensive deal” – not only do the two sides not have a draft agreement that specifies where they agree and disagree, but, as reported earlierTrump said he was unlikely to agree to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping before the March 1 deadline to hammer out final compromises, contrary to prior, more optimistic expectations. Absent an impromptu meeting, Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet at the G20 summit in Japan at the end of June, by which time hundreds of billions in new tariffs would have kicked in.

Normally at this stage of negotiations, you’d be exchanging drafts of a joint text,” said Christopher Adams, a former Trump Treasury Department official and trade negotiator who is now at the Covington & Burling law firm. “If it’s all about something enforceable and verifiable, it needs to be memorialized [in a document]. They seem to be some ways yet from having that essential element.”

The lack of any progress is a growing concern to American business leaders who fear the economic and market consequences of a failure to reach a deal, and are pushing both sides to compromise. Among those pushing for deal is Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, who the WSJ reports has been phoning Mr. Trump and his senior advisers to warn that the failure to strike a deal will undermine the economy and roil markets, which have increasingly priced in an amicable end to U.S.-China economic hostilities. To buttress his case, Schwarzman has told Trump that uncertainty about China is weighing on business investment and consumer confidence, depressing the US economy.

At the same time, Schwarzman and other business leaders, including former Treasury Secretary and bailer out in chief Hank Paulson, are also urging senior Chinese officials to make enough concessions to US negotiators to allow Mr. Trump to claim a victory, including to agree to a way the U.S. can enforce the deal should China fall short of its commitments.

Even without the outside prodding, some of Trump’s outside advisers remain convinced the two sides will reach a deal, even if it is a limited pact that involves mainly purchases and pledges China has already made to open the auto, financial services and other markets on the gradual path. “The two sides could then agree to negotiate further over tougher issues, including Chinese subsidies for domestic companies and forcing Chinese state-owned enterprise act more like private companies”, the WSJ adds.

That may prove to be too optimistic, however, becauseChina appears to be convinced that Trump will cave no matter what.

Michael Pillsbury, a scholar at the Hudson Institute China who consults with the White House, said Chinese officials seem confident of a deal because they believe Trump needs the political boost and is being counseled by conciliatory business leaders.

“My Chinese sources seem remarkably confident that without any concessions, the Trump administration will drop its tariffs or grant them an extension of many more months” to continue talks, Pillsbury said.

Of course, that has been China’s stance for a while, and yet so far Trump has resisted caving without extracting concessions; furthermore, with the market surging, any external pressure on the president from his beloved “barometer” of his presidential performance, is non-existent.

Worse, Trump may be convinced that only by getting China to caver first will he insure his re-election:

“There is an absolute focus at the White House on what policies, tactics and agreements they need to do to keep the economy humming” and give Mr. Trump a powerful reelection message, said a longtime GOP strategist who talks regularly with senior White House officials. Those calculations include a quick deal with China.

Should both parties indeed be convinced that the other side will cave first, then it is almost assured that tariffs will jump as scheduled on March 1.

As for the most critical US demands, it is unlikely that they will be met by Beijing. Lighthizer, a longtime critic of China’s trade practices who is especially influential with Trump, last week called enforcement the “foundational issue” in the talks. “We have to be in a position where the United States can enforce its rights,” he said, after ticking off the number of times where China hasn’t lived up to commitments.

Even here, though, there is a problem: the U.S. hasn’t yet decided what sort of enforcement mechanism it wants, while China sternly rejects having the U.S. judge its progress and enforce its findings through tariffs.

As such, it is somewhat confusing where all the optimism for an imminent deal comes from.

Last week, China’s chief negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, and a team of Chinese negotiators talked with their U.S. counterparts in  Washington, D.C., with the market once again confident that some tangible outcome would be announced. It wasn’t.

Instead, the Chinese team came with very few new proposals, the WSJ reports, adding that the Chinese delegation merely spun their wheels and reiterated pledges made by Xi and other senior Chinese officials to open markets over the next few years.

For example, Chinese officials said they would increase purchases of U.S. beef, which they initially halted in 2003 after mad-cow disease scare, however, in 2017, China started importing U.S. beef again even if it retained some restrictions.

And as experts confirm, there is little reason to expect a tangible change this time: James Green, who until last year was the U.S. Trade Representative’s top official in Beijing, said he doubts Chinese negotiators would come up with a raft of new proposals to jump-start talks.

The negotiators need to get a consensus from more senior officials for new plans and are wary of being tagged as weak with the U.S., he said. “That government system doesn’t do well in producing new initiatives,” said Mr. Green, now a senior fellow at Georgetown University.

Which is why, given the major gaps in negotiating positions and what has been said to be “pressure on Trump” to make a deal, some trade experts – and Beijing as well – figure he will settle for a partial deal by March 1 and continue negotiations.

Others are worried that Trump will concede in deed, if not in tweet: some trade associations are concerned that Trump will settle for a deal that doesn’t press hard for systemic change in Beijing. Before Trump met with Mr. Liu, for instance, the Biotechnology Innovation Organization, a trade group, urged U.S. negotiators to be “resolute and insist on a deal with enduring commitments and not only purchases of U.S. goods.”

They may have a point: during an Oval Office session, Trump cited six times Liu’s pledge to buy more soybeans, calling it “a sign of good faith.” He didn’t mention the term “structural,” though he did highlight the phrase in his State of the Union address earlier this week.

With Trump having already caved on the topic of the Border Wall, and lifting the record-long government shutdown (even as a second shutdown may be imminent), sparking a firestorm of criticism from some of his most conservative fans such as Ann Coulter, Trump may have no choice but to keep pushing for full Chinese concession, although absent an imminent collapse in the Chinese economy it’s unclear why Beijing would fold, lest he be seen as just another John Boehner. Alternatively, with the S&P500 refusing to slide, providing China with some much needed leverage, it’s difficult to see just why Trump would agree to major concessions in a trade feud that has so far defined his presidency.

Ironically, for the deal to happen, the market will have to realize that a negative outcome is the more likely of the two, and crash thus making a deal far more likely. One look at the market, however, shows that nobody is in any particular rush to start selling, especially after Steven Mnuchin made it clear that any substantial drop will lead to even more calls to the Plunge Protection Team.

END
In order to get the Chinese to sign a deal, Trump is ready to ban Chinese telecom equipment from the  5 G network conference next week
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump To Sign Order Banning Chinese Telecom Equipment Next Week

What is a quick, efficient way for Trump to signal to China, ahead of the upcoming March 1 deadline to reach a trade deal with Beijing, that contrary to media speculation that the US president will “drop tariffs without any concessions” from Beijing, he will do no such thing? One way is by signing an executive order banning Chinese telecom equipment from US wireless networks just a few days before March 1. And, according to Politico, that’s exactly what Trump plans on doing, right before a major industry conference at the end of February, and also just before the March 1 deal deadline.

According to three sources, the administration plans to release the directive, part of its broader effort to protect the U.S. from cyber threats, before MWC Barcelona, formerly known as Mobile World Congress, which takes place Feb. 25-28; the actual signing of the long-delayed order may take place as soon as next week.

“There’s a big push to get it out before MWC,” said an industry source familiar with the matter, who also requested anonymity to speak candidly.

By signing the order ahead of the world’s largest conference for the wireless industry, the White House hopes “to send a signal that future contracts for cutting-edge technology must prioritize cybersecurity.” The order will surely also further roil the Trump administration’s already tense relationship with Beijing, especially if the U.S. push erodes Chinese firms’ significant European market share.

The reason behind the White House’s push is because with many countries eager to deploy next-generation 5G wireless networks to power the rapidly proliferating internet of things, Chinese firms such as Huawei and ZTE are aggressively pushing to build these networks — at a lower cost than virtually all of their competitors. And so, with these 5G build-outs looming, Trump admin officials want “to move the needle” with their security messaging, said the source close to the administration.

“Contracts are going out now,” this person told POLITICO. “Extra stigma could change the situation out in the countries on this major decision.”

“We’re going to be asking people to do things, but the U.S. legal and regulatory environment hasn’t really closed the circle yet on this issue,” said Paul Triolo, who leads the consulting firm the Eurasia Group’s global technology practice. “So there’s a lot of pressure now to get this EO out there.”

While the White House did not comment for the Politico report, National Security Council spokesman Garrett Marquis effectively confirmed the story, stating that the U.S. was “working across government and with our allies and like-minded partners to mitigate risk in the deployment of 5G and other communications infrastructure.”

Ironically, the order which is also meant to drum up support against Chinese 5G technology against US allies, may result in the latest diplomatic schism with Europe. Earlier today, in what was most likely a sign of defiance at the Trump administration, Handeslblatt reported that – in direct contravention with White House signaling – the German government wants to avoid excluding products offered by Huawei the build-out of the next generation 5G network in Germany. Government sources had told Reuters that German ministers on Wednesday discussed how to safeguard security in future 5G mobile networks, amid intense debate over whether to shut Huawei out of the market. To this chancellor Merkel responded that Germany “needs guarantees” that Huawei would not hand data to the Chinese state before it can take part in building fifth-generation networks that would link everything from vehicles to factories at far greater speeds.

It wasn’t immediately clear just how Huawei can “guarantee” that it would put a Chinese Wall, pardon the pun, between its operations and Beijing. Huawei has set up information security labs in Germany and Britain aimed at building confidence that its equipment does not contain “back doors” exposing networks to cyber spies and on Wednesday offered to build a similar center in Poland. So far nobody has determined that these labs are spy centers themselves.

So even with Germany preemptively declaring a mutiny to a US-led effort for a global boycott of Huawei, State Department officials are warning their foreign counterparts about 5G security as often as possible according to Politico.

“We’re raising it at the highest diplomatic levels,” Rob Strayer of the State Department said Wednesday during an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “We’re making sure that the most senior policymakers in governments are aware of the momentousness of this decision and what is at stake in the decision they’re about to make.”

But where the situation gets tragicomic is that while Washington is eager to ban Huawei technology, the U.S. still hasn’t developed an alternative, Huawei-free vision for the massive, complicated and high-stakes global 5G buildout.

Trump administration officials are still “trying to understand the full range of options,” John Costello, director of strategy, policy, and plans at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, said at the CSIS event.

In any case, the message to Europe about 5G, according to the second industry source, has been, “Go slow. There’s no need to rush into this. We need to figure out how to do this now.”

Right now, U.S. telecom companies have “no clear guidance on how to proceed” with a 5G buildout that excludes Huawei, which controls 28% of the global telecom equipment market. So, if Trump signs the telecom directive before MWC, the U.S. will be able to attend the conference armed with fresh evidence of its commitment to the issue. Or, in the case of Germany, lack thereof.

The administration’s desire to make a strong impression at MWC is so great that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had planned to attend the event, according to a Politico source.

This person said that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, one of Trump’s closest outside advisers, “called Pompeo and said, ‘What the hell are we doing on 5G?’” (Gingrich did not respond to a request for comment, and State declined to discuss its delegation.)

For now, besides boycotting China’s 5G products, nobody really knows.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Details are leaked what the UK government will do if they do a hard BREXIT.  One novel thought would be to lower tariffs to zero and that would get goods moving in a hurry. I do not think that the damage will be as bad as some pundits let on..

(courtesy zerohedge)

Whitehall Leaks Details Of Plan To Dampen Economic Fallout From ‘No Deal’ Brexit

Just as UK Prime Minister Theresa May was meeting with European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker to ‘formally’ petition for reopening the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement to allow for “meaningful changes” to the text (spoiler alert: He said not a chance, and counter-offered with the possibility of changing the accompanying political declaration), the Financial Times was reporting the existence of a top-secret Cabinet plan to mitigate the economic fallout from a ‘no-deal’ BrexitThough some stray details had already leaked (like the notion that the UK could temporarily cut tariffs to zero to help goods flow across new customs barriers more quickly), the plan – known as “Project After” – hadn’t been previously disclosed.

Of course, the UK isn’t alone in preparing for the “worst-case scenario” of a no-deal Brexit. Europe reportedly began ramping up plans of its own weeks ago. But the fact that the UK’s plan is being shepherded by Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwell shows how seriously the government is taking the process.As it stands, the plan would require the cooperation of senior figures from the Cabinet Office, the Treasury, the business department and the international trade department, as well as the Bank of England(which sent the pound reeling on Thursday after it slashed its GDP forecast and warned about the economic damage already being wrought by the chaotic Brexit negotiations).

FT

One civil servant who spoke with FT on the condition of anonymity described the plan as “basically a Doomsday list of economic levers we could pull if the economy is about to tank” and claimed that Sedwell has been working on it since the summer. Though others said the earliest incarnations of the project could be traced back to just after the Brexit referendum vote two years ago, when it was a project of the Department for International Trade. And while he described some elements as “radical” – like slashing tariffs and cutting taxes – he said others would be “more conventional” like supply-side reform and export support.

Some MPs worried that “Project After”‘s focus on supply-side reforms could create problems for the UK economy in the long run.

Officials are trying to eliminate options that could prove economically counter-productive. Some worry that slashing taxes and increasing public spending could lead inflation to spike, damaging consumer confidence, raising interest rates and ultimately increasing the cost of Britain’s debt servicing.

“If Britain has a supply side shock and the government uses demand-side stimuli it would cause inflation,” one official said.

Unlike “Operation Yellowhammer” the other major Brexit contingency-planning measure, which is focused on building out the necessary civil service for ‘no-deal’, “Project After” is focused exclusively on measures to mitigate the economic blowback.

One facet of the planning is looking into deregulation and other possible remedies that one lawmaker said would transform the UK into “Singapore-on-the-Sea”.

At one point civil servants were examining areas to boost the economy through deregulation – for example of environmental standards and reforms to labour laws. “If we wanted to become Singapore-on-Sea that’s what we would have done,” said one official.

In other words: If the EU holds firm and MPs don’t cave and pass Theresa May’s “Plan B” bill, the Tories will transform Britain into a polluted, Dickensian, anarcho-capitalist hellscape.

Sounds like a great plan.

/EU

Bergman of Gatestone comments on the EU’s plan for disinformation to  flow throughout Europe from the press and politicians. Free speech is being censored and this is not a way to run a democracy

(Judith Berman/Gatestone)

EU: Going Full Orwell

Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

  • The problem is that this professedly noble initiative comes from an organization that has already for several years been censoring free speech in Europe.
  • The handbook guidelines state that journalists should “Take care not to further stigmatize terms such as ‘Muslim’ or ‘Islam’ by associating them with particular acts… Don’t allow extremists’ claims about acting ‘in the name of Islam’ to stand unchallenged. Highlight… the diversity of Muslim communities… where it is necessary and newsworthy to report hateful comments against Muslims, mediate the information.” In other words, the guidelines ask journalists to disinform the public.
  • This is the same European Commission that most recently expressed its disapproval of the withdrawal of Austria from the UN’s “Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration.” The Compact stipulates that media outlets that do not support the UN’s migration agenda will not be eligible for public funding. How is that for “fully respecting Europe’s fundamental principles of freedom of expression, a free press and pluralism“?

The EU has launched a comprehensive Action Plan against Disinformation. Its purpose, according to a recent press release from the European Commission, is apparently to “protect its democratic systems and public debates and in view of the 2019 European elections as well as a number of national and local elections that will be held in Member States by 2020″.

In June 2018, leaders of EU member states had met in the European Council and invited the European Commission “to present… an action plan by December 2018 with specific proposals for a coordinated EU response to the challenge of disinformation…” It is this action plan that the Commission presented to the public on December 5.

The Action Plan focuses on four areas:

  1. Improved detection of disinformation (the European Commission dedicated 5 million euros toward this project and seemingly expects Member states to contribute on a national level, as well).
  2. Coordinated Response — the EU institutions and Member States will set up a Rapid Alert System “to facilitate the sharing of data and assessments of disinformation campaigns”. The Rapid Alert System will be set up by March 2019 and “will be complemented by further strengthening relevant resources”.
  3. Online platforms and industry are called on to ensure “transparency of political advertising, stepping up efforts to close active fake accounts, labelling non-human interactions (messages spread automatically by ‘bots’) and cooperating with fact-checkers and academic researchers to detect disinformation campaigns and make fact-checked content more visible and widespread” in accordance with a previously signed Code of Practice against Disinformation.
  4. Raising awareness and empowering citizens: In addition to “targeted awareness campaigns”, the “EU institutions and Member States will promote media literacy through dedicated programmes. Support will be provided to national multidisciplinary teams of independent fact-checkers and researchers to detect and expose disinformation campaigns across social networks”. In 2018, citizens are suddenly no longer “media literate” and need to be “empowered” in order to be told how and what to think.

Crucially, and as mentioned above, the Action Plan relies on the previously introduced, Code of Practice on Disinformation, which the online tech giants — Facebook, Google, Twitter and Mozilla — signed in October 2018. The Code of Practice is necessary, because, according to EU Commissioner for the Security Union Sir Julian King:

“The weaponisation of on-line fake news and disinformation poses a serious security threat to our societies. The subversion of trusted channels to peddle pernicious and divisive content requires a clear-eyed response based on increased transparency, traceability and accountability. Internet platforms have a vital role to play in countering the abuse of their infrastructure by hostile actors and in keeping their users, and society, safe.”

In September, Commissioner for Digital Economy and Society Mariya Gabriel saidabout the Code of Practice:

“This is the first time that the industry has agreed on a set of self-regulatory standards to fight disinformation worldwide, on a voluntary basis. The industry is committing to a wide range of actions, from transparency in political advertising to the closure of fake accounts and demonetisation of purveyors of disinformation, and we welcome this. These actions should contribute to a fast and measurable reduction of online disinformation. To this end, the Commission will pay particular attention to its effective implementation.

“The Code of Practice should contribute to a transparent, fair and trustworthy online campaign ahead of the European elections in spring 2019, while fully respecting Europe’s fundamental principles of freedom of expression, a free press and pluralism.”

According to Andrus Ansip, Vice-President responsible for the Digital Single Market, the Code of Practice and the Action Plan against Disinformation are meant “to protect our democracies against disinformation. We have seen attempts to interfere in elections and referenda, with evidence pointing to Russia as a primary source of these campaigns.”

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini stated:

“It’s our duty to protect this space and not allow anybody to spread disinformation that fuels hatred, division, and mistrust in democracy.”

It sounds noble: The EU wants to protect citizens from “fake news” and from the interference in national and European democratic processes by foreign powers such as Russia.

The problem is that this professedly noble initiative comes from an organization that has already for several years been censoring speech in Europe, thereby making it difficult to take these stated intentions at face value. This is, after all, the European Commission that in May 2016 agreed with Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and Microsoft, on a “Code of Conduct on countering illegal online hate speech online” (Google+ and Instagram also joined the Code of Conduct in January 2018).

The Code of Conduct commits the social media companies to review and remove, within 24 hours, “illegal hate speech”. According to the Code of Conduct, when companies receive a request to remove content, they must “assess the request against their rules and community guidelines and, where applicable, national laws on combating racism and xenophobia…” In other words, the social media giants act as voluntary censors on behalf of the European Union.

In addition to the Code of Conduct, the EU hosts several initiatives aimed at increasing censorship.Recently, for example, the EU had a call out for research proposals on how “to monitor, prevent and counter hate speech online”. It also sponsors projects that “guide” journalists on what to write: Under the EU’s Rights, Equality and Citizenship Programme (REC) the EU has financed the publication of a handbook with guidelines for journalists on how to write about migrants and migration. The guidelines form part of the RESPECT WORDS project — also financed by the EU — which “aims to promote quality reporting on migrants and ethnic and religious minorities as an indispensable tool in the fight against hate”. The handbook guidelines state, among other things, that journalists should:

“Take care not to further stigmatise terms such as ‘Muslim’ or ‘Islam’ by associating them with particular acts… Don’t allow extremists’ claims about acting ‘in the name of Islam’ to stand unchallenged. Highlight… the diversity of Muslim communities… where it is necessary and newsworthy to report hateful comments against Muslims, mediate the information. Challenge any false premises on which such comments rely”.

In other words, the guidelines ask journalists to disinform the public. How, then, should one logically respond to an entire EU-sponsored “Action Plan against Disinformation”?

Finally, this is the same European Commission that most recently expressed its disapproval of the withdrawal of Austria from the UN’s “Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration.” The Compact stipulates that media outlets that do not support the UN’s migration agenda will not be eligible for public funding. How is that for “fully respecting Europe’s fundamental principles of freedom of expression, a free press and pluralism”?

What Europe should expect, as this new Action Plan against Disinformation is rolled out, is, in fact — more censorship.

end

Germany/Wirecard

We brought to you an explosive story that Wirecard, a big German payments company and a market darling had a whistleblower who was pounding the table that the company was engaged in accounting fraud.  It did not take long:  Singapore police have raided the companies offices in that city state

(courtesy zerohedge)

end

Wirecard Tumbles After Singapore Police Raid Company Office

One day after the FT published an explosive story (with the help of a company “whistleblower”) detailing allegations of brazen accounting fraud at German payments company (and market darling) Wirecard, Singapore police have raided the company’s offices in the city-state.

Wirecard

The raid is the first sign that authorities are looking into criminal charges against the company following details from a law firm’s internal investigation were leaked to the FT, calling the company’s metrics about usage of its payments network into question. After news of the raid broke, media reports surfaced claiming Munich prosecutors have opened a market manipulation probe into Wirecard.

“The Singapore police has raided the premises of Wirecard in Singapore today,” a police spokesperson told the Financial Times on Friday. About 10 officers in the police’s commercial affairs department swooped on Wirecard’s Singapore offices at 10.30am, according to one person familiar with the situation. The police did not confirm which unit carried out the operation, or what materials, if any, were taken in the raid.

Wirecard again denied the allegations from the FT report and asserted that the allegations have already been vetted by the law firm that prepared the internal report.

“[T]hese allegations have been investigated in a robust compliance process both by our internal compliance team and by an independent investigation conducted by a law firm specialising in compliance (Rajah & Tann).”

It continued: “Neither the internal investigation by our compliance department has found any confirmation for the allegations made, nor has the external investigation by Rajah & Tann to date produced any conclusive findings regarding criminal misconduct by employees or managers…The investigation by Rajah & Tann is about to be completed and we will announce the results in due course.”

Once again, Wirecard shares slumped on the news:

Wirecard

According to the FT, officers questioned Wirecard employees and senior managers about the company’s financial structure and also asked employees to identify members of the company’s finance team, as well as detail their responsibilities. Police also questioned senior executives, including Fook Sun Ng, a senior manager at Wirecard Singapore. Though Edo Kurniawan, one of the employees responsible for supervising the fraud in the company’s Asian operations, according to the FT’s initial reports, wasn’t at the office during the raid. Since Wirecard isn’t regulated by the Singaporean Monetary Authority, any investigation into the company would be led by the city-state’s police.

But with Wirecard shares slumping on fears that it might prove to be Germany’s answer to Theranos, nervous investors, who helped the company’s share price nearly quintuple over a span of less than four years, are probably looking out for the next shoe to drop.

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

The USA finally comes out with a set target date for full withdrawal from Syria and it is by the end of April

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Military Finally Sets Target Date For “Full Withdrawal” From Syria

Here it is finally. The time has arrived for the fabled, confused and precarious US troop withdrawal from Syria despite the best efforts of neocons and interventionistas to permanently stall and alter course, per a new Wall Street Journal report that dropped late in the day Thursday: “the military plans to pull a significant portion of its forces out by mid-March, with a full withdrawal coming by the end of April.”

But you might be forgiven for remaining skeptical with a “believe it when I see it” approach, as President Trump first announced a “rapid withdrawal” on Dec. 19 which quickly became “no timeline” in the weeks that followed — though it depended on who in the administration or Pentagon was asked — with many determined to quash Trump’s prior campaign promises of “bring our boys home.” But now the WSJ speaks with a new confidence that this time it’s for real:

The U.S. military is preparing to pull all American forces out of Syria by the end of April, even though the Trump administration has yet to come up with a plan to protect its Kurdish partners from attack when they leave, current and former U.S. officials said.

US deployment position in Syria, via the AP/Defense One

What’s hanging the balance, and of concern for US officials, is the unresolved fate of the Kurds who are now looking down the barrels of the Turkish army and the head-chopping knives of their jihadi ‘rebel’ allies on the ground, poised to invade formerly US-occupied space in Syria.

The WSJ report, citing US officials, says that Washington and Ankara have “made little headway” on the Kurdish issue after a series of diplomatic cold shoulders, including John Bolton being personally snubbed by Turkish president Erdogan last month while Bolton was visiting Turkey for talks. The US has aimed to avert a direct fight (in which the Kurds would face slaughter or certain retreat), but simultaneously to prevent its Kurdish allies on the ground from entering the embrace and protection of Assad.

Something has to give, so could it be that Trump is willing to accept Kurdish rapprochement with Damascus? It could very well be headed toward a “look the other way situation” on this front, as the WSJ notes “the U.S. military withdrawal is proceeding faster than the political track.”

“The bottom line is: Decisions have to be made,” one U.S. official told the WSJ. “At some point, we make political progress, or they’re going to have to tell the military to slow down, or we’re going to proceed without a political process.”

However, the WSJ also noted that the Pentagon has yet to comment: “We are not discussing the timeline of the U.S. withdrawal from Syria,” said a Pentagon spokesman.

It should be noted that Trump’s latest rhetoric seems a preparation for quick pullout, or big coming announcement: “It should be formally announced sometime, probably next week, that we will have 100% of the caliphate,” the president said Wednesday during an anti-ISIL coalition speech at the State Department.

According to the WSJ report, some 2,000 US service members would withdraw as follows:

Under the working military plans, the U.S. would pull all troops out in the coming weeks — including about 200 Americans working out of a base in southern Syria [al-Tanf] that has served as an informal check on Iran’s expansionist ambitions in the region, the current and former U.S. officials said.

And on Tuesday, the commander of U.S. Central Command, Army Gen. Joseph Votel, said in testimony before Senate Armed Services Committee, “I am not under pressure to be out by a specific date, and I have not had any specific conditions put upon me,” Gen. Votel said, but crucially he added, “The fact is the president made a decision, and we are going to execute his orders here to withdraw all forces from Syria.”

Per Trump’s words on Wednesday, will an April “complete exit” be announced from the mouth of the president himself next week, at which point the Pentagon and administration hawks will no longer able to stall?

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7  OIL ISSUES

Much to the anger of the USA and France, the EU will not block the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline which brings gas to Europe from Russia:

( zerohedge)

EU Won’t Block Controversial Nord Stream 2 Pipeline

Update: Following reports that France would effectively kill the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, EU officials including German Chancellor Angela Merkel affirmed on Friday that an agreement has been reached which will allow construction of the pipeline to move forward – handing a major victory to Germany and Russia (and a stunning defeat for President Trump).

At a meeting in Brussels on Friday, EU diplomats advanced a draft gas-market law, initially proposed in late 2017, while greatly cutting back a provision that would have effectively blocked the pipeline.

The deal will allow negotiations with the European Parliament on a final version of the legislation to begin. Both sides are aiming for an official agreement as soon as next week, and no later than the end of May.

* * *

As The European Union and the US struggle to block the controversial international pipeline project Nord Stream 2, a 760-mile pipeline that would allow Russia to export natural gas directly to Germany – depriving Ukraine of badly needed gas transit fees along the current route for Russian supplies – France on Friday officially announced its opposition to the project, revealing that it would vote with a bloc of EU nations seeking to torpedo the project.

Earlier reports suggested that the opposition in Paris is rooted in the fear that the pipeline would confer too much “strategic power” on Moscow, potentially complicating its relationship with Brussels. Reuters has previously reported that Paris’s vote against the project could rob Germany of the blocking minority it needs to move the project forward.

But later on Friday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said a deal had been reached on Nord Stream 2.

A vote is expected to be held next week on an amendment to the EU’s gas directive that could allow the European Commission to cancel the pipeline project, according to Sputnik. The project itself has been spearheaded by Gazprom and five European energy companies, and engineers for Gazprom said recently that the raw pipeline could be finished as early as later this year.

AFP news agency

@AFP

Map showing the Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Germany

Commenting on France’s plans to back the new EU regulations, which could very well torpedo the project, Russia defended the venture, arguing that it is beneficial for all EU countries. Richard Grenell, the US Ambassador to Germany, threatened sanctions last month against German companies working on the project, claiming the pipeline would give the Kremlin too much leverage over gas supplies to Europe (though, more importantly for the US, it could cut into the US’s exporting abilities).

Pipeline

Responding to France’s decision, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted that Moscow intends to closely follow the discussions in Brussels while continuing work on the project.

“We are certainly aware of the discussions that are taking place in the European Union on this matter. We are very closely monitoring the situation,” Peskov said when asked whether disagreement within the EU could interfere with the pipeline completion.

European countries are divided on the project. Nordic countries like Norway oppose it because it due to the view that it would give Russia too much leverage over European gas supplies (while threatening the market share of Scandinavian energy producers).

After Berlin affirmed that it is in “constant contact” with the French over Nordstream 2, Merkel argued against the criticisms of the project, which aims to bring gas into Germany via a route under the Baltic Sea and a hub in Germany. Merkel argued that the pipeline wouldn’t make her country dependent on Russia for its energy supplies.

“Do we become dependent on Russia due to this second gas pipeline? I say ‘no,’ if we diversify at the same time,” Merkel told journalists in Bratislava, where she met with the heads of states of the Visegrad Group, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia.

Once completed (that is, if it’s completed), the pipeline would deliver 55 billion cubic meters (1.9 trillion cubic feet) of Russian natural gas to the European Union annually. Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Trump of trying to force Russia out of the European energy market to the benefit of US LNG producers (remember, the US became a net energy exporter late last year for the first time ever, and the US shale industry sees Europe as a key growth market).

Moscow also claimed that the pipeline is a purely commercial project.

Though clearly, the EU doesn’t agree.

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela/USA

VENEZUELA’S MADURO believes that the uSA will attack it shortly

( zerohedge)

Maduro Invokes Vietnam In Open Letter; Warns America Will “Send Their Sons To Die In An Absurd War” 

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has penned an open letter to the people of the United States, warning that Washington is “willing to send their sons and daughters to die in an absurd war,” and that Venezuelan patriots “shall defend our homeland with all the pieces of our soul.”

Maduro posted an image of the letter to Twitter, which he said would be delivered to the White House “to demand respect for our unwaivable right to peace.”

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Nicolás Maduro

@NicolasMaduro

Comparto la “Carta Abierta al Pueblo de los EE.UU.”, que está siendo firmada por el pueblo libre de Venezuela y el mundo. Vamos a entregarla en la Casa Blanca para exigir el respeto a nuestro derecho irrenunciable a la Paz.

Slamming US President Trump’s aggressive statements “disrupting noble dialogue initiatives” promoted by Uruguay and Mexico, and backed by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Maduro warned of “dramatic consequences,” and compared the current situation to the US involvement in Vietnam and the fake WMDs in Iraq.

They want to invade and intervene in Venezuela – they say, as they said then – in the name of democracy and freedom. But it’s not like that. The history of the usurpation of power in Venezuela is as false as the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. It is a false case, but it can have dramatic consequences for our entire region. -Nicolás Maduro

Maduro has demanded that the US stop its aggression towards Venezuela, including trying to “suffocate our economy,” and “the serious and dangerous threats of military intervention.

Earlier this week images of a massive blockade on a major highway link with Colombia made headlines, as the Venezuelan military used truck trailers and shipping containers to stop aid (and probably a ton of weapons) from entering the country and falling into the hands of the self-recognized interim president, Juan Guaidó.

Secretary Pompeo

@SecPompeo

The Venezuelan people desperately need humanitarian aid. The U.S. & other countries are trying to help, but ’s military under Maduro’s orders is blocking aid with trucks and shipping tankers. The Maduro regime must LET THE AID REACH THE STARVING PEOPLE.

2

He was sworn in for his new term last month, but the National Assembly, controlled by opposition parties, called Mr. Maduro’s government illegitimate. The Assembly’s leader, Juan Guaidó, declared himself interim president last month and promised to organize new elections.

The United States and dozens of other countries have recognized Mr. Guaidó.

The aid shipment represents a challenge to Mr. Maduro’s authority and to his ability to provide for the nation. (“We are not beggars,” he recently said.) For his opponents, it is a test of their ability to deliver on promises and to win supporters. –New York Times

The United States and dozens of other countries have recognized Guaidó as the leader of Venezuela, after the National Assembly – controlled by Venezuela’s opposition parties – called Maduro’s government illegitimate.

Read Maduro’s letter below:

An Open Letter to the American People from President Nicolas Maduro

If I know anything, it is about peoples, such as you, I am a man of the people. I was born and raised in a poor neighborhood of Caracas. I forged myself in the heat of popular and union struggles in a Venezuela submerged in exclusion and inequality. I am not a tycoon, I am a worker of reason and heart, today I have the great privilege of presiding over the new Venezuela, rooted in a model of inclusive development and social equality, which was forged by Commander Hugo Chávez since 1998 inspired by the Bolivarian legacy.

We live today a historical trance. There are days that will define the future of our countries between war and peace. Your national representatives of Washington want to bring to their borders the same hatred that they planted in Vietnam. They want to invade and intervene in Venezuela – they say, as they said then – in the name of democracy and freedom. But it’s not like that. The history of the usurpation of power in Venezuela is as false as the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. It is a false case, but it can have dramatic consequences for our entire region.

Venezuela is a country that, by virtue of its 1999 Constitution, has broadly expanded the participatory and protagonist democracy of the people, and that is unprecedented today, as one of the countries with the largest number of electoral processes in its last 20 years. You might not like our ideology, or our appearance, but we exist and we are millions.

I address these words to the people of the United States of America to warn of the gravity and danger that intend some sectors in the White House to invade Venezuela with unpredictable consequences for my country and for the entire American region. President Donald Trump also intends to disturb noble dialogue initiatives promoted by Uruguay and Mexico with the support of CARICOM for a peaceful solution and dialogue in favour of Venezuela. We know that for the good of Venezuela we have to sit down and talk, because to refuse to dialogue is to choose strength as a way. Keep in mind the words of John F. Kennedy: “Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate”. Are those who do not want to dialogue afraid of the truth?

The political intolerance towards the Venezuelan Bolivarian model and the desires for our immense oil resources, minerals and other great riches, has prompted an international coalition headed by the US government to commit the serious insanity of militarily attacking Venezuela under the false excuse of a non-existent humanitarian crisis.

The people of Venezuela have suffered painfully social wounds caused by a criminal commercial and financial blockade, which has been aggravated by the dispossession and robbery of our financial resources and assets in countries aligned with this demented onslaught.

And yet, thanks to a new system of social protection, of direct attention to the most vulnerable sectors, we proudly continue to be a country with high human development index and lower inequality in the Americas.

The American people must know that this complex multiform aggression is carried out with total impunity and in clear violation of the Charter of the United Nations, which expressly outlaws the threat or use of force, among other principles and purposes for the sake of peace and the friendly relations between the Nations.

We want to continue being business partners of the people of the United States, as we have been throughout our history. Their politicians in Washington, on the other hand, are willing to send their sons and daughters to die in an absurd war, instead of respecting the sacred right of the Venezuelan people to self-determination and safeguarding their sovereignty.

Like you, people of the United States, we Venezuelans are patriots. And we shall defend our homeland with all the pieces of our soul. Today Venezuela is united in a single clamor: we demand the cessation of the aggression that seeks to suffocate our economy and socially suffocate our people, as well as the cessation of the serious and dangerous threats of military intervention against Venezuela. We appeal to the good soul of the American society, victim of its own leaders, to join our call for peace, let us be all one people against warmongering and war.

Long live the peoples of America!

Nicolás Maduro

President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1323 DOWN .0015 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.79  UP .043 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…DEADLY TO OUR YEN SHORTERS

GBP/USA 1.2933    DOWN   0.0016  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3271 DOWN .0040 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 31 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1394/ Last night Shanghai composite closed /OFF FOR THE WEEK/CHINESE NEW YEAR 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 43.87 POINTS OR .16% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .37%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 418.11 POINTS OR 2.01%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 43.89 POINTS OR .16%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.37%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 418.11 PTS OR 2.01%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1309.50

silver:$15.71

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.66% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.01 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.63 UP 13 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.65% DOWN 1     in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.03%  DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.23% DOWN 1   IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.96 UP 1     POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 173 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.08%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.88% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1323 DOWN   .0015 or 15 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 109.79 UP  0.043 OR 4 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2933 DOWN.0016( POUND DOWN 16  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 40 basis points to 1.3271

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed HOLIDAY AT 6.7422 0N SHORE  (YUAN CLOSED)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7860(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2503

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.03%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.63 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.98 DOWN 3  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.63 UP 13 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 22.40 OR 0.32%

German Dax : DOWN 115.24 POINTS OR 1.05%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 23.92 POINTS OR  0.48%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 81.50 POINTS OR  0.91%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 126.42 POINTS OR 0.65%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 52.64 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 61.96 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    6574  THE CROSS LOW BY 0.21 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 21 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.10 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  52.65

 

 

BRENT :  62.09

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.63..

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.97

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1323 ( DOWN 15    BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.77 UP.020 (YEN DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.65 UP 14 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2957  DOWN 12 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.2506

the Russian rouble 65.76:   UP .18 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 18 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3266 UP 45 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7422  (ONSHORE)/CLOSED FOR THE WEEK

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7844  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.10%

 

The Dow closed down 63.20 POINTS OR 0.25%

 

NASDAQ closed UP  9.25 POINTS OR 0.14%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.03 CLOSED DOWN .34 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.737%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE FALLING/

 

FROM 2.738

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Late-Day Panic-Buying Keeps Stock Win Streak Alive, Bond Yields Tumble To 13-Mo Lows

World GDP growth expectations are tumbling…

Earnings expectations are plunging…

And still stocks manage to hold gains…

“f*** this”…

 

With Chinese stock markets closed for the week as the nation celebrates the lunar new years, Yuan has drifted weaker…

And China Large Cap ETF has also been sliding…

After a good start to the week, European stocks suffered their first weekly loss in six, led by DAX…

 

What a total farce – a late day panic-bid ensured the weekly win streak remains alive…

 

Futures show the day best with the incessant bid beginning to lift stocks after Europe closed…and then panic bid into the cash close…

 

The S&P failed at its 200DMA and then broke back below (and closed below) its 100DMA…

 

“Most Shorted” stocks actually fell this week as the juice that sent stocks soaring in January has well and truly run out…

 

Bond yields and stocks have really decoupled…

 

Credit and equity protection costs surged midweek…

 

Treasury yields tumbled on the week (3rd weekly decline in 10Y Yields in a row)…

 

This is the lowest weekly 10Y Yield close since Jan 2018…

 

The Dollar index is now up 7 days in a row – the longest winning streak since Dec 2017…

We note that the Chinese are back next week.

Despite the dollar gains, cryptos had a huge week, led by Litecoin…

 

 

WTI had an ugly week, copper outperformed (but faded today) and PMs managed small losses (despite the dollar surge)…

 

It seems $52 is the magic number of crude…

 

Gold bounced back above the pre-Powell lows…

 

Gold gained against the yuan…

 

Of course, Iron Ore is the big winner, following the Vale disaster..

 

Finally, there’s this…

And this…

 

 

MARKET TRADING

ii)Market data/

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Another bombshell, San Francisco Fed clown governor states that central bankers are discussing if QE should be used more regularly and not in emergency..

gold should be up 500 dollars on this announcement.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Fed Bombshell: Central Bankers Discussing If QE Should Be Used “More Regularly”

Just a few days after the San Fran Fed, that incubator of profound economic insight and blatantly money-wasting research which recently found that record amounts in student loans, wait for it, prevent young people from buying homes, casually tossed a bomb in academia when it said that negative rates would have accelerated the recovery from the last recession setting up a strawman to use NIRP during the next recession, just dumped another bombshell.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Reuters reports that San Fran Fed President Mary Daly said that US central bankers are currently debating whether it should confine its controversial tool of bond buying to purely emergency situations or if it should turn to that tool more regularly.

“In the financial crisis, in the aftermath of that when we were trying to help the economy, we engaged in these quantitative easing policies, and an important question is, should those always be in the tool kit — should you always have those at your ready — or should you think about those are only tools you use when you really hit the zero lower bound and you have no other things you can do, Daly said after a talk at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.

So how would the Fed decid which “tool” to use when? Well, according to Daly the answer wasn’t clear: “you could imagine executing policy with your interest rate as your primary tool and the balance sheet as a secondary tool, but one that you would use more readily,” she added. “That’s not decided yet, but it’s part of what we are discussing now.”

So while it remains unclear what “more regularly” means, one proposal which we are confident will be adopted by the Fed is the following:

Hipster@Hipster_Trader

The year is 2021. The Fed institutes QE every time the S&P drops 50bps

Mac Slavo highlights that an increasing number of middle class American citizens are living from paycheck to paycheck.

(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)

Living Paycheck-To-Paycheck: The New Crisis And Normal For The American Middle Class

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

According to recent studies, the vast majority of the American middle class is only one missed paycheck away from poverty. About 78% of workers in the United States are living paycheck to paycheck, and the statistics don’t improve from there.

Only 39% of Americans actually have saved enough money to cover a $1000 emergency. Nearly 3 in 4 workers say they are in debt and of those, more than half think they always will be, according to statistics posted by Forbes. Any rise in interest rates or the cost of food could leave some Americans with the tough choice of eating or paying the car payment to get to work.

A similar 2016 GOBankingRates survey found that 69 percent of Americans had less than $1,000 in total savings and 34 percent had no savings at all.  That means many Americans would have to put an emergency expense on a credit card or borrow money another way just to cover the cost of a $1000 expense.

Making matters worse, the 2017 Report on the Economic Wellbeing of US Households stated that, when asked how they would cover an emergency expense of $400, only 59% of Americans said they could easily cover the expense using entirely cash, savings, or a credit card paid off at the next statement. But “four in ten adults would either borrow, sell something or not be able to pay” if faced with a $400 emergency expense.

The government shutdown recently highlighted the fact that a large number of Americans are wholly unprepared for any kind of economic downturn, let alone another recession.

According to the newest op-ed article by Market Watch, the government shutdown is perfectly proving that Americans are not prepared for a financial disaster of any kind, let alone an economic recession. Many have long assumed that the government (which as we all know is almost $22 trillion in debt) will be using their money (stolen funds aka, taxation) to bail out those who get themselves into trouble. But the shutdown is proving just how little the government actually does and just how financially illiterate many Americans have allowed themselves to become.

It’s been ten years since the Great Recession left many Americans jobless with no money, and it appears most have learned nothing. The government shutdown serves as a painful warning and preview for what will happen once unemployment rises from 50-year lows.  Americans are far too dependent on others, including the government, for their survival.

SHTFPlan

Forbes reported that even without an unexpected expense, according to the Fed’s report, one in five (22%) can’t cover all their current month’s bills, and one in four skipped a medical treatment in the past year due to an inability to pay. Some of those use credit cards in between paychecks to scrape by and many know that they will be unable to pay back the money they have already borrowed. 

I think a lot of Americans are so willing to use their credit cards because they’re so far in debt, they know they’re broke, and they might as well go out with a bang. A lot of people have no intention of paying back the money that they’re using whether it’s Visa or Mastercard.

Peter Schiff via SHTFPlan

The good times won’t last forever.  All economies eventually fall into a recession, and this one will be no different.  Those who are prepared will turn a major catastrophe into an inconvenience, while those who are not prepared could face mounting difficulties.

end

This is not good:  we are now witnessing farm bankruptcies surge to 10 year highs as the trade war bites into their operations.
( zerohedge)

“They’re Running Out Of Options” – Farm Bankruptcies Surge To 10-Year High As Trade War Bites

The Farm Belt helped cement President Trump’s historic electoral triumph over Hillary Clinton. But even before Trump started his trade war with China nearly one year ago, Trump’s protectionist bent has added to the collective woes of farmers, who were already struggling with low prices for corn, soy beans and other agricultural commodities.

China’s decision to purchase millions of soybeans (after orders ground to halt late last year following another round of tariffs) offered some relief to soybean producers who were teetering on the brink even with President Trump’s farm bailout money in hand. But even if negotiations result in a lasting agreement, it might not be enough to save hundreds of American family farms from collapsing into bankruptcy, as the Wall Street Journalpointed out in a story published Wednesday.

Farms

According to a WSJ analysis of federal data, the number of farmers filing for bankruptcy has climbed to its highest level in a decade…

Farm

…driven by a lasting slump in agricultural commodity prices due in large part to the rise of rival producers like Brazil and Russia.

Bankruptcies in three regions covering major farm states last year rose to the highest level in at least 10 years. The Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals, which includes Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin, had double the bankruptcies in 2018 compared with 2008. In the Eighth Circuit, which includes states from North Dakota to Arkansas, bankruptcies swelled 96%. The 10th Circuit, which covers Kansas and other states, last year had 59% more bankruptcies than a decade earlier.

And Trump’s trade wars – not just with China, but more broadly – aren’t helping.

Trade disputes under the Trump administration with major buyers of U.S. farm goods, such as China and Mexico, have further roiled agricultural markets and pressured farmers’ incomes. Prices for soybeans and hogs plummeted after those countries retaliated against U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs by imposing duties on U.S. products like oilseeds and pork, slashing shipments to big buyers.

Low milk prices are driving dairy farmers out of business in a market that’s also struggling with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. cheese from Mexico and China. Tariffs on U.S. pork have helped contribute to a record buildup in U.S. meat supplies, leading to lower prices for beef and chicken.

Because of this, the level of farm debt is approaching levels last seen in the 1980s.

Debt

The stress on American farmers is also affecting agribusinesses giants like Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge and Cargill, who are feeling the heat even as lower crop prices translate into less-expensive raw materials for the commodity buyers.

What’s worse is that even after working side jobs to try and make ends meet, some farmers are still winding up more than $1 million in debt.

Mr. Duensing has managed to keep farming, hiring himself out to plant crops for other farmers for extra income and borrowing from an investment group at an interest rate twice as high as offered by traditional lenders. Despite selling some land and equipment, Mr. Duensing remains more than $1 million in debt.

“I’ve been through several dips in 40 years,” said Mr. Duensing. “This one here is gonna kick my butt.”

Even more shocking than the number of bankruptcies, the number of farms that continue to operate while losing money has risen to more than half of all farms, even as the level of productivity has never been higher.

More than half of U.S. farm households lost money farming in recent years, according to the USDA, which estimated that median farm income for U.S. farm households was negative $1,548 in 2018. Farm incomes have slid despite record productivity on American farms, because oversupply drives down commodity prices.

And bankers who lend to farms warn that there will likely be more bankruptcies to come as more producers “are running out of options.”

Agricultural lenders, bankruptcy attorneys and farm advisers warn further bankruptcies are in the offing as more farmers shed assets and get deeper in debt, and banks deny the funds needed to plant a crop this spring.

“We are seeing producers who are running out of options,” said Tim Koch, senior vice president at Omaha, Neb.-based Farm Credit Services of America, which lends to farmers and ranchers in Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming.

Perhaps the only silver lining – if you can even call it that – is that bankruptcy lawyers in states where farms are prevalent are doing their best business in years.

Mounting stress in the Farm Belt has meant big, if somber, business for the region’s bankruptcy attorneys. In Wichita, Kan., the firm of bankruptcy attorney David Prelle Eron filed 10 farm bankruptcies in 2018, the most it has ever handled in one year. Wade Pittman, a bankruptcy attorney based in Madison, Wis., said his firm filed about 20 farm bankruptcies last year, ahead of past years, and he said he expects the numbers to continue to rise as milk prices remain stagnant.

Joe Peiffer, a Cedar Rapids, Iowa-based attorney, said his office is the busiest—and most profitable—it has ever been. Just before Christmas, he sent letters to eight farmers declining to represent them because he didn’t have sufficient staff to handle their cases promptly. He is doubling his office space and interviewing new attorneys to join the firm.

One factor driving bankruptcies is tighter lending standards, said Mr. Peiffer, including at agricultural banks, which are under pressure from regulators to exercise greater caution over their farm-loan portfolios.

“I’m dealing with people on century farms who may be losing them,” said Mr. Peiffer, whose own father sold his farm in the late 1980s.

One anecdote featured in the story recalls the rash of suicides among NYC cab drivers, who have struggled to pay the hefty loans attached to their taxi medallions thanks to the rise of Uber, Lyft and other ride sharing apps.

Darrell Crapp, the fifth-generation owner of a hog and cattle farm in Lancaster, Wis., returned to his home one day with a queasy feeling in his stomach, only to find his wife unconscious on their bathroom floor. She had swallowed a handful of pills. She survived, but Crapp attributed the incident to financial stressors as their farm teetered on the brink of bankruptcy.

It was a Sunday in April 2017 when a queasy feeling in Darrell Crapp’s stomach sent him rushing home. He found his wife, Diana, lying crumpled on the floor of their Lancaster, Wis., bathroom. She had swallowed a handful of pills.

Overwhelmed with debt and with little prospect of turning a profit that year, the Crapps knew BMO Harris Bank NA wouldn’t lend them money to plant. The bank had frozen the farm’s checking account.

Mrs. Crapp managed the fifth-generation corn, cattle and hog farm’s books. She had stayed up nights drafting dozens of budgets to try to stave off disaster, including 30-day, 60-day and 90-day budgets.

“It was too much for her,” Mr. Crapp, 63, said of his wife, who survived the incident.

Crapp Farms filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy the next month, with a total debt of $36 million.

After filing for bankruptcy, the last of Crapp’s land, a 197-acre patch that was homesteaded by his ancestors in the 1860s, will be auctioned off in the near future.

And after all that, Crapp may still need to declare Chapter 12 bankruptcy, a personal bankruptcy provision available to farmers and fishermen, to wipe his remaining debts.

“We haven’t won very many battles,” said Mr. Crapp. “The bank pretty much owns us.”

Unfortunately for American farmers hoping to reclaim the market share they’ve lost during the trade war with China, even if Trump can strike a trade deal with the Chinese that mandates purchases of US agricultural products – which the Chinese have already pledged to do – there’s still another wrinkle: Japan recently signed a revamped version of the TPP that will offer preferential treatment to Australia, New Zealand and other rivals to American farmers, potentially sealing off another market from US agricultural products.

iv)SWAMP STORIES

 

 

a)THE FIRST OF MANY SUBPOENAS TO BE ISSUED//Adam Schiff prepares one to subpoena phone records linked to the Trump Tower meeting.

( zerohedge)

 

Democrats Prepare To Subpoena Phone Records Linked To Trump Tower Meeting

Amid a whirlwind of upcoming hearings and subpoena requests, including an upcoming inquiry into Trump’s taxes, Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee are preparing to issue a subpoena as soon as Thursday to obtain phone records linked to the June 2016 Trump Tower meeting between Trump campaign officials and a Russian lawyer, The Hill reports.

The upcoming subpoena will be the first order Rep. Adam Schiff will issue as Democratic chairman of the committee, and the process of preparing the order came one day after the committee became formally constituted. While details about the specifics of the subpoena remain unclear, the order goes to the heart of the committee’s plan to investigate ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.

As expected, the Trump Tower meeting has come under scrutiny after Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son in law Jared Kushner and then-White House campaign manager Paul Manafort met with a Kremlin-linked lawyer during the 2016 election in an effort to obtain dirt on the Clinton campaign. While questions had swirled about who Trump Jr. talked to on a blocked number ahead of the meeting, CNN reported earlier this month that the Senate investigators have learned that Trump Jr.’s phone calls were not made to his father. As a reminder, sources told CNN that Senate Intelligence Committee had received records that Trump Jr. talked to two of his business associates in that phone call.

Separately, the AP reports that according to a newly unsealed court transcript in Paul Manafort’s criminal case, the August 2016 meeting between President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman and an associate with ties to Russian intelligence goes to the “heart” of the Russia investigation. A prosecutor for special counsel Robert Mueller says the meeting between Manafort and Konstantin Kilimnik goes to the “larger view of what we think is going on” and what “we think the motive here is.”

Previous court documents have revealed that one of the topics discussed by Manafort and Kilimnik was a possible peace plan to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Crimea. The comments came during a hearing over whether Manafort lied to investigators and violated the terms of his plea agreement. Many details from the transcript are blacked out.

As for Schiff’s subpoena, it will be the first of many as Democrats on the panel scrutinize whether foreign actors have sought to gain leverage or even influence Trump and those in his inner circle, according to the parameters of the probe Schiff laid out on Wednesday.

END

Meet AOC and her new Green plan .  Kim Strassel of the Wall Street Journal dissects the plan even though she was hysterical in laughter at all of AOC’s projects.

(courtesy zerohedge/Kim Strassel/Wall Street journal)

Meet Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: The Republicans Secret Weapon For 2020

Having been mocked by her own leadership (and much of social media) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) – the little socialist that could – faces the final condemnation tonight as The Wall Street Journal surveyed the Bronx Congresswoman’s “Green New Deal” resolution… and was left in hysterics, with Kimberley Strassel tweeting:

“By the end of the Green New Deal resolution (and accompanying fact sheet) I was laughing so hard I nearly cried. If a bunch of GOPers plotted to forge a fake Democratic bill showing how bonkers the party is, they could not have done a better job. It is beautiful. “

Leaving the outspoken reporter with only one conclusion:

” The Republican Party has a secret weapon for 2020. It’s especially effective because it’s stealthy: The Democrats seem oblivious to its power. And the GOP needn’t lift a finger for it to work.

All Republicans have to do is sit back and watch 29-year-old Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez . . . exist.

And while we already highlighted the most shocking proposals from the “Green New Deal,” we leave it to Strassel to destroy it line by line…

AOC, as she’s better known, today exists largely in front of the cameras. In a few months she’s gone from an unknown New York bartender to the democratic socialist darling of the left and its media hordes. Her megaphone is so loud that she rivals Speaker Nancy Pelosi as the face of the Democratic Party. Republicans don’t know whether to applaud or laugh. Most do both.

For them, what’s not to love? She’s set off a fratricidal war on the left, with her chief of staff, Saikat Chakrabarti, this week slamming the “radical conservatives” among the Democrats holding the party “hostage.” She’s made friends with Jeremy Corbyn, leader of Britain’s Labour Party, who has been accused of anti-Semitism. She’s called the American system of wealth creation “immoral” and believes government has a duty to provide “economic security” to people who are “unwilling to work.” As a representative of New York, she’s making California look sensible.

On Thursday Ms. Ocasio-Cortez unveiled her vaunted Green New Deal, complete with the details of how Democrats plan to reach climate nirvana in a mere 10 years.It came in the form of a resolution, sponsored in the Senate by Massachusetts’ Edward Markey, on which AOC is determined to force a full House vote. That means every Democrat in Washington will get to go on the record in favor of abolishing air travel, outlawing steaks, forcing all American homeowners to retrofit their houses, putting every miner, oil rigger, livestock rancher and gas-station attendant out of a job, and spending trillions and trillions more tax money. Oh, also for government-run health care, which is somehow a prerequisite for a clean economy.

It’s a GOP dream, especially because the media presented her plan with a straight face – as a legitimate proposal from a legitimate leader in the Democratic Party.Republicans are thrilled to treat it that way in the march to 2020, as their set-piece example of what Democrats would do to the economy and average Americans if given control. The Green New Deal encapsulates everything Americans fear from government, all in one bonkers resolution.

It is for starters, a massive plan for the government to take over and micromanage much the economy. Take the central plank, its diktat of producing 100% of U.S. electricity “through clean, renewable, and zero-emission energy sources” by 2030. As Ron Bailey at Reason has noted, a 2015 plan from Stanford envisioning the goal called for the installation of 154,000 offshore wind turbines, 335,000 onshore wind turbines, 75 million residential photovoltaic (solar) systems, 2.75 million commercial solar systems, and 46,000 utility-scale solar facilities. AOC has been clear it will be government building all this, not the private sector.

And that might be the easy part. According to an accompanying fact sheet, the Green New Deal would also get rid of combustion engines, “build charging stations everywhere,” “upgrade or replace every building in U.S.,” do the same with all “infrastructure,” and crisscross the nation with “high-speed rail.”

Buried in the details, the Green New Deal also promises government control of the most fundamental aspects of private life. The fact sheet explains why the resolution doesn’t call for “banning fossil fuels” or for “zero” emissions across the entire economy—at least at first. It’s because “we aren’t sure that we’ll be able to fully get rid of farting cows and airplanes that fast” (emphasis mine).

This is an acknowledgment that planes don’t run on anything but fossil fuel. No jet fuel, no trips to see granny. It’s also an acknowledgment that livestock produce methane, which has led climate alarmists to engage in “meatless Mondays.” AOC may not prove able to eradicate “fully” every family Christmas or strip of bacon in a decade, but that’s the goal.

Finally, there is the one little problem of how to pay for all this ‘free shit’ – never you mind says AOC, that’s what taxes-on-the-rich and a printing press are for…

…the resolution is Democratic math at its best. It leaves out a price tag, and is equally vague on what kind of taxes would be needed to cover the cost. But it would run to tens of trillions of dollars. The fact sheet asserts the cost shouldn’t worry anyone, since the Federal Reserve can just “extend credit” to these projects! And “new public banks can be created to extend credit,” too! And Americans will get lots of “shared prosperity” from their “investments.” À la Solyndra.

At least some Democrats seem to be aware of what a danger this is, which is why Ms. Pelosi threw some cold water on the Green New Deal this week. They should be scared. Ms. Ocasio-Cortez is a freight train gaining speed by the day—and helping Republicans with every passing minute.

Finally, it is worth noting that, on the day AOC unveiled her socialist utopian dream for Amerika – and the way she hopes to pay for it – the sovereign risk of the United States of America surged

end
Trump is furious after he learns that Schiff and Glenn Simpson had a “Forest Gump like encounter.
(courtesy zerohedge)

GIANT AND ILLEGAL HOAX”: Trump Reams 2018 Schiff – Simpson Meeting In Aspen

President Trump lashed out over Twitter Friday, first slamming Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) after The Hill‘s John Solomon reported that House Intelligence Committee chairman had a “Forrest Gump-like encounter” with Fusion GPS founder Glenn Simpson at last July’s prestigious Aspen Security Conference.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Now we find out that Adam Schiff was spending time together in Aspen with Glenn Simpson of GPS Fusion, who wrote the fake and discredited Dossier, even though Simpson was testifying before Schiff. John Solomon of @thehill

11K people are talking about this

Fusion GPS produced the “hoax” Trump-Russia dossier commissioned by the Clinton Campaign, which relied on Kremlin sources for a series of salacious and largely unproven claims. The dossier was a foundational document used by the Obama administration to surveil the Trump campaign during the 2016 election.

Solomon writes that photos from the Aspen security conference show Schiff and Simpson meeting, which both men insisted was only a brief encounter.

When confronted with the Aspen conference photos of Schiff, in sport coat and open-neck dress shirt, and Simpson, wearing casual attire, representatives for both men tried to minimize their discussion, insisting nothing substantive about the Russia case was discussed. –The Hill

Shockingly, Simpson was an important witness in front of the House Intelligence Committee at the time – of which Schiff was the ranking Democrat. Simpson had “given sworn testimony about alleged, but still unproven, collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign,” Solomon writes.

What’s more, Schiff had heard testimony from former DOJ #4 Bruce Ohr which suggested that Simpson may have lied to lawmakers.

Specifically, Simpson claimed he had not begun meeting with Ohr until after Thanksgiving 2016, well after the FBI had begun investigating Trump-Russia collusion and after the presidential election in which Simpson’s client, Clinton, lost to Trump.

But Ohr provided compelling evidence, including calendar notations, testimony and handwritten notes, showing that Simpson met with him in August 2016, well before the election and during a time when Steele was helping the FBI start an investigation into Trump. –The Hill

Fusion GPS tried to downplay the Aspen encounter, telling Solomon in a statement: “In the summer of 2018, Mr. Simpson attended a media-sponsored social event where he exchanged small talk with Rep. Schiff and many other people who were in attendance. The conversation between the two was brief and did not cover anything substantive. There has been no subsequent contact between Mr. Simpson and Rep. Schiff.”

Schiff’s comment was less specific. “The chairman did not have any pre-planned meeting with Glenn Simpson, and any conversation with him at the Aspen conference would have been brief and social in nature,” said Schiff spokesman Patrick Boland.

We’re sure they discussed yoga and weddings.

Or as Solomon writes: “Translation: This was just a Forrest Gump-like moment in which the Democrats’ chief defender of the dossier and the man whose firm produced it met serendipitously.

Trump then slammed the Russia investigation as a “GIANT AND ILLEGAL HOAX, developed long before the election itself, but used as an excuse by the Democrats as to why Crooked Hillary Clinton lost the Election!” 

Trump also noted that the mainstream media has “refused to cover the fact that the head of the VERY important Senate Intelligence Committee, after two years of intensive study and access to Intelligence that only they could get, just stated that they have found NO COLLUSION between “Trump” & Russia.””

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The mainstream media has refused to cover the fact that the head of the VERY important Senate Intelligence Committee, after two years of intensive study and access to Intelligence that only they could get, just stated that they have found NO COLLUSION between “Trump” & Russia….

10.9K people are talking about this

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…It is all a GIANT AND ILLEGAL HOAX, developed long before the election itself, but used as an excuse by the Democrats as to why Crooked Hillary Clinton lost the Election! Someday the Fake News Media will turn honest & report that Donald J. Trump was actually a GREAT Candidate!

 

 

On Thursday, the Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) announced that his committee’s Russia investigation has yet to find evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia during the 2016 election, and will soon release a report on the Obama administration’s response to Russian interference in the last US election, reports Politico.

In an interview with CBS published Thursday, Burr (R-N.C.) gave glimpses into the dynamics and scope of his committee’s probe, which was launched shortly before Trump’s 2017 inauguration and has now stretched into its third year. Burr told CBS that the committee staff has interviewed more than 200 witnesses from multiple countries and reviewed over 300,000 pages.

“Based on the evidence to date,” Burr said, the committee could not definitively say there was collusion between Trump and the Russians.

If we write a report based upon the facts that we have, then we don’t have anything that would suggest there was collusion by the Trump campaign and Russia,” Burr told CBS. –Politico

Burr suggested that some of the questions raised during the course of the investigation could occupy the committee “for the next decade,” and some portions of the final report would be so classified that they are never made available to the public.

Their findings on the Obama administration’s response to Russian interference could come within a “matter of weeks.”

END
The Dept. of Homeland Security issues a waiver to build the wall now as there has been a 69% spike in illegals arrested
(courtesy zerohedge)

DHS Issues Waiver To Expedite San Diego Border Wall Amid 69% YTD Spike In Illegals Arrested

The Department of Homeland Security said in a Friday press release that they have issued a waiver “to ensure the expeditious construction and replacement of approximately 12.5 miles of the secondary wall” in San Diego.

DHS cited a 1996 law giving the Secretary of Homeland Security the authority to waive legal requirements for the installation of “additional fencing, walls, roads, lighting, cameras and sensors on the southwest border.”

Approximate length and placement of secondary fence project (google maps)

“The approximately 14-mile bollard style wall project in San Diego that was awarded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on December 20, 2018, will include an area that begins near the eastern end of Border Field State Park and extends east to where the existing primary pedestrian fence ends,” reads the release.

There were over 38,000 illegal border crossers arrested by the San Diego Sector border patrol in 2018, while 18,500 have been apprehended so far this year – an increase of more than 69% for the same period last year, according to DHS.

In other border news, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) ordered the Arkansas National Guard redeployed from the Mexican border in New Mexico to Texas in order to assist with border security – after New Mexico Gov. Lujan Grisham (D) ordered the New Mexico National Guard withdrawn from the border, and directed troops from other states to return home.

Last week, troops from Arkansas and one of the state’s LUH-72 Lakota helicopters assisted federal officials in the seizure of 136 pounds of marijuana from four men who were arrested along the Mexico – New Mexico border, according to 5 News.

 

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

German Industrial Production for December declined 0.4% m/m and 3.9% y/y.  +0.8% m/m and -3.4% y/y were expected.  November was revised to -1.4% m/m and -4% y/y from -1.9% m/m and -4.7% y/y.

EU Slashes Growth Forecasts and Warns Over Brexit, China

  • EU Commission also lowers forecasts for France, Netherlands
  • Growth estimate for Italy cut to 0.2% from 1.2% for 2019

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-07/italy-germany-drag-on-euro-area-economy-as-eu-slashes-outlook

@dlacalle_IA: As Eurozone economic slowdown worsens, German bond yields fall to lowest level in two years… Run to the hills. ECB has inflated zombie states’ debt anddeflation is on its way

Stocks fall to session low after Larry Kudlow says U.S. and China are still far away on trade deal https://cnb.cx/2DWQcSy

We have stated several times over the past few months that China will copy Japan’s strategy of dealing with US trade negotiators – negotiate endlessly, issue conciliatory rhetoric but make no concessions while waiting for the usual American cave, which will partially be due to lobbyist pressure.

Nellie Ohr told Congress that Ukrainian lawmaker was Fusion GPS source

  • Ohr told lawmakers… that one of Fusion GPS’s sources was a Ukrainian parliamentarian whose government has accused him of illegally meddling in the 2016 U.S. election.
  • Ohr, a former Fusion GPS contractor, testified that Serhiy Leshchenko was a source for the Democrat-funded opposition research firm.

Ohr, whose husband is Justice Department official Bruce Ohr, testified that she was not aware of Leshchenko’s source information, but that she knew he was providing information to Fusion GPS, where she worked between late 2015 and the 2016 election…

https://dailycaller.com/2019/02/06/nellie-ohr-fusion-gps-leshchenko-ukraine/

Trump, Xi won’t meet before March 1 trade deadline

President Trump said Thursday he has no plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a self-imposed March 1 deadline for the two countries to reach a trade agreement…

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/429017-trump-xi-wont-meet-before-march-1-trade-deadline

Another Solomon blockbuster @jsolomonReports: Adam Schiff and Glenn Simpson had undisclosed meeting last year in Aspen, raising concern inside House intel committee – The Democrats’ chief defender of the dossier and the man whose firm produced it met serendipitously… Expect Republicans in Washington to launch some questions at the House’s new Intelligence Committee chairman… [Will Barr investigate or appoint a 2nd Special Counsel?]

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/429041-adam-schiff-glenn-simpson-and-their-forrest-gump-like-encounter-in-aspen

end

 

Let us close out the week with this commentary courtesy of Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog

(courtesy Greg Hunter)

Trump SOTU Speech A+, Democrats Push Socialism, Economy Teeters

President Trump earned an A+ in his State of the Union (SOTU) address in Congress this week. He laid out his vision for America, and according to the mainstream media polling, he received as high as 76% positive ratings. This is surprising because 90% of the coverage (Harvard & MRC research) of the Trump Administration has been negative since his inauguration two years ago. Will the Democrats work with the President and give him what he wants to build a wall on the southern border. It’s not likely, and that means another government shutdown.

Democrats are now openly pushing for socialism. You need to look no further than the failed state of Venezuela to see what happens when socialism blows up, as it always does historically.   There are huge political and economic struggles going on there. Venezuela was once one of the most prosperous countries in South America before the socialism experiment, and the experiment has clearly failed. Trump says America will not turn into a socialist country under his watch.

On one hand, we are told the economy is great, and on the other hand, we are seeing evidence of debt crushing consumers and governments alike. How much bigger can the debt bubble be blown? We may be finding out this year.

Join Greg Hunter as he looks at these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

I WILL SEE YOU MONDAY NIGHT
HARVEY
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One comment

  1. themagicbusguy · · Reply

    Have a great weekend Harvey

    Like

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