FEB 14/RETAIL SALES PLUMMET BY 1.2% IN DECEMBER AS THE ATLANTA FED LOWERS 4TH QUARTER GDP GROWTH TO 1.6%/GOLD DOWN $1.10 TO $1310.90/SILVER FALLS 11 CENTS TO $15.57//CHINA AND THE USA REVEAL LACK OF PROGRESS ON USA-CHINA TRADE DEAL//THERESA MAY LOSES ANOTHER BREXIT VOTE AND THIS HURTS HER CREDIBILITY/TRUMP TO SIGN BILL TO KEEP GOVERNMENT OPEN BUT ALSO SIGN AN EMERGENCY MEASURE TO FUND THE WALL/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1310.90 DOWN $1.10 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.57 DOWN 11 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1312.50

 

silver: $15.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

FEBRUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 8 NOTICE(S) FOR 800 OZ (0.0249 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  9233 NOTICES FOR 923300 OZ  (28.718 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEBRUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

28 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 140,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 565 for 2,825,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3591:DOWN $19

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3611 down $12.

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 7

CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,310.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/13/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 02/15/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 3
661 H JP MORGAN 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 8 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 8 8
MONTH TO DATE: 9,233

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3685 CONTRACTS FROM 217,925 UP TO 221,610 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 4 CENT LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

2782 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL, FOR MAY, 600 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 3382 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3382 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3392 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 17.195 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

AND NOW 2.830 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 13,523 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 13,443 CONTRACTS) OR 67.215 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1352 CONTRACTS OR 6.760 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB:  67.215 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.65% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           276.14    MILLION OZ. (CORRECTED)

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 7067 DESPITE THE 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3382 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 7067 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 3382 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 3685 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.68 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.095 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 157% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 28 NOTICE(S) FOR 140,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND NOW FEB 2019:  2.830 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A  STRONG SIZED 3814 CONTRACTS UP TO 479,897 WITH THE RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.40//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG  SIZED 7361 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 7361 CONTRACTS, DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 479,897. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,175 CONTRACTS: 3814 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7361 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 11,175 CONTRACTS OR 1,117,500 OZ = 35.34 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $1.40.

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 1819 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY : 52,092 CONTRACTS OR 5,209,200 OZ  OR 162.02 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5,209 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE GOOD SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 162.02 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 162.02/2550 x 100% TONNES = 6.35% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     682.17  TONNES  (CORRECTED)

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A  STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3814 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($1.40) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7361 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7361 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 13,729 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7361 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3814 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 34.75 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $1.40 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had:  8 notice(s) filed upon for 800 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD down $1.10 TODAY

 

THE CROOKS CONTINUE WITH THEIR ATTACK ON THE GLD

 

THEY WITHDREW ANOTHER:  2.04 TONNES OF GOLD AND THAT WILL BE USED TO RAID GOLD/

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   796.85 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 798.85 tonnes.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

STRANGE!!  A GOOD DEPOSIT OF 423,000 OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3685 CONTRACTS from 217,925 UP TO 221,610  AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

2782 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MAY., 600 FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3382 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 3685 CONTRACTS TO THE 3382 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS GAIN  OF 8667  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 35.34 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..AND NOW 2.830 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY.

 

 

RESULT: A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 4 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 3382 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.37 POINTS OR 0.05% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 65.54 POINTS OR 0.23%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 4.77 POINTS OR 0.02%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.01%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7745 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 54.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.

 ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7745 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7840: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)Interesting:  China’s global exports surge in January but trade with the USA tumbles:

( zerohedge)

ii)THIS MORNING:  THE CHINESE MEDIA DENY REPORTS OF A TRADE DEADLINE EXTENSION

( zerohedge)

iii)LAST NIGHT:

We have to put up with this nonsense for another 60 days as Trump is considering pushing back the deadline for imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese imports by 60 days. Obviously the talks are not doing well!

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

UK

This study finds a no deal Brexit would hurt Germany the most as exports into the UK would plummet.  They state that Germany would lose 103,000 jobs

( zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)VENEZUELA/USA

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)uSA Gold expects a breakout in gold’s price this year

(USA Gold//GATA)

ii)Ted Butler strongly believes that the Dept of Justice and the FBI will end JPMorgan’s silver rigging

a good read..
(courtesy Ted Butler/GATA)

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

a)Early trading this morning after release of a huge retail sales slump in December and then news that trade talks are “deadlocked”..as we promised you it would be

( zero hedge)

b)Late morning: the bounce is erased on reports that the USA China trade deal is “far apart”
( zerohedge)

c)then: late morning: bounce fails and S and P tumble below key technical level(zerohedge)

ii)Market data/

a)The biggy!!  the all important retail sales collapsed in December and this was the worst Christmas reading in quite some decade, in at least 10 years.  Needless to say that this will be a disaster for 4th quarter GDP where it will probably fall into the 1% category.

( zerohedge)

aii)Three banks lower their estimate for GDP to 2.0%.  However the Atlanta Fed lowers its estimate to 1.6%. Eventually this number will settle around 1.00%

( zerohedge)

c)The Fed will not be excited with this;  PPI growth is the slowest since July 2017..with the chief culprit being energy

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Trump is not going to like this:  the house votes to end USA military support for the Saudi war with Yemen

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)Mac Slavo reports on a record number of Americans are behind on their car payments

(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHTFPlan.com)

c)This is big news:  Lael Brainard becomes the first Fed Governor to state that she wants the ending to balance sheet unwinding.  That should stimulate gold

(courtesy zerohedge)

d)The fun begins:  Bill Barr is now confirmed as the new attorney general.  Expect fireworks almost immediately

(Carney/the Hill)

)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Judge Berman throws out the plea deal with Manafort so he will not get any credit for helping the prosecution.He will spend the rest of his days in prison unless Trump gives him a pardon.

( zerohedge)

b)Absolute garbage:  McCabe tells CBS in an interview of 60 minutes that he rushed to open the Russia probe for fear of being fired.  He opened the probe because of conflicts with his wife receiving 700,000 dollars in her bid for a senate seat.
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3814 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 479.897 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.40) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR THREE YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES., THE REASON FOR THE COLLAPSE IN OPEN INTEREST IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7361 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 7361, FOR DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7361 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  11,175 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7361 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 3814 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:11,175 contracts OR 1,117,500  OZ OR 34.75 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of FEBRUARY and here the open interest stands at 583 contracts, and thus undergoing a GAIN of 35 contracts.  We had 16 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we GAINED BACK A CONSIDERABLE 51 contracts or 5100 additional oz will stand for delivery in this very active delivery month of February as they refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a sizable fiat bonus. The comex is out of gold!@!

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after February is  March and here we gained 103 contracts to stand at 1666.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI rose by 2459 contracts up to 341,079 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 8 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 800 OZ. (0.0248 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3685  CONTRACTS FROM 217,925 UP TO 221,610(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 4 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS 29 CONTRACTS, HAVING GAINED 28 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 28 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 140,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY.

 

.

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 3848 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 113,902 CONTRACTS. AFTER MARCH, APRIL RISES AT 72 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 15 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ADVANCED BY 5668 CONTRACTS UP TO 68,262 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 7067 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 5228 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 3382 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  7067 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  220,285 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  225,941  contracts

comex gold volumes are getting extremely low as players just do not want to play in this casino.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

FEB 14 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
8 notice(s)
 800 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
575 contracts
(57,500 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9233 notices
923,300 OZ
28.718 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i

 

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  nil oz

we had 0  adjustments…

FOR THE FEB 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 16 contract(s) of which 7 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEBRUARY/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9233) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (583 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (8 x 100 oz per contract) equals 980,800 OZ OR 30.506 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of FEBRUARY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (9233 x 100 oz)  + {583)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (8 x 100 oz )which equals 980,800 oz standing OR 30.506 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY.

WE GAINED 51 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 5100 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. THE COMEX MUST BE VOID AS OUR BANKERS ARE SCOURING THE PLANET LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD./

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.13 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 30.506 TONNES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY

OF WHICH 28.718 TONNES OF GOLD HAVE ALREADY BEEN SERVED UPON SO FAR THIS MONTH.

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  743,812.931 oz or   23.13 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,221,512.995 oz 255.72 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON FEBRUARY 2019 TO THE  FEBRUARY 2018 COMEX GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FEB 1.2018: 20.07 TONNES OF GOLD STOOD FOR DELIVERY, BUT BY THE END OF MONTH ONLY 8.55 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 28 MONTHS 99 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

FEB INITIAL standings/SILVER

FEB 14 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
705,555.408 oz
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,011,472.890
oz
CNT
HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
28
CONTRACT(S)
140,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 565 contracts

(2,825,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  2 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.26 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.61% of all official comex silver. (150.26 million/296 million)

 

i) Into CNT:  589,427.900 oz

ii) Into HSBC: 422,044.990

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 1,011,472.890   oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of  CNT: 90,059.924  oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 16,306.384 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan:  599,189.100 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 705,555.408    oz

 

we had 0 adjustment..

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.807 million

total dealer + customer silver:  297.261 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the FEBRUARY 2019. contract month is represented by 28 contract(s) FOR  140,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 565 x 5,000 oz = 2,825,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (29) and the number of notices served upon today (28x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEBRUARY/2019 contract month: 565(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB( 29) -number of notices served upon today (28)x 5000 oz equals 2,830,000 oz of silver standing for the FEBRUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

WE GAINED 28 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 140,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS  NEGATING A FIAT BONUS

 

FOR COMPARISON SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH  FEB 2018 VS FEB 2019

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FEB 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 670,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  AT THE MONTH’S CONCLUSION WE HAD 2.035 MILLION OZ STAND AS WE WITNESSED QUEUE JUMPING ON A REGULAR BASIS AT THE SILVER COMEX.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  85,153 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 101,426 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 101,426 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 507 million OZ  72.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.41% (FEB 14/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -.60% to NAV (FEB 14 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.41%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.27/TRADING 12.77/DISCOUNT 3.80

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: WE HAD ANOTHER PAPER RAID (WITHDRAWAL) OF 2.04 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES/

FEB 13:/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER RAID BY OUR CROOKED BANKERS AS THEY WITHDREW ANOTHER 2.23 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.89 TONNES

FEB 12: WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO WHACK OUR PRECIOUS METAL TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.00/THE CROOKS WITHDREW ANOTHER HUGE 6.59 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.29 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP 35 CENTS/ANOTHER PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 811.82 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 813.29 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i)A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.37 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM THE GLD AND THEN ii) a A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.40 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $.65: A HUGE HUGE MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87..SO FAR IN JANUARY: 28.56 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $6.15/A HUGE ADDITION OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.64 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $17.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

jAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70?: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP 50 CENTS: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD UP A TINY $.85 A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE FRAUDULENT GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

FEB 14/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 796.85 tonnes

*IN LAST 545 TRADING DAYS: 137.20 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 445 TRADING DAYS: A NET 22.75 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: A DEPOSIT OF 423,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ

FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 306.935 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT TH SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999  MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000  OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ.

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 129,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY  RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG DEPOSIT OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 INTO THE SLV INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.597 MILLION OZ.

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.408 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.659 MILLION OZ/

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: A HUGE LOSS OF 938,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.179 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/SLV IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.189 MILLION OZ/

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/NO DOUBT THE MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF PAPER SILVER WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.895 MILLION OZ./INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110 MILLION OZ/

JAN 16/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.158 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.005 MILLION OZ/

JAN 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 469,000 OZ FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.163 MILLION OZ/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

 

 

FEB 14/2019:

 

Inventory 307.358 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.20/ and libor 6 month duration 2.74

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .54

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.54%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.91

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.37

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold P

 

GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
Ted Butler strongly believes that the Dept of Justice and the FBI will end JPMorgan’s silver rigging
a good read..
(courtesy Ted Butler/GATA)

Ted Butler is confident that Justice Dept. will stop JPM’s silver rigging

 Section: 

8:38p ET Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver market analyst Ted Butler, interviewed by Jim Cook of Investment Rarities in Bloomington, Minnesota, today explains why he remains so bullish on silver and thinks the U.S. Justice Department is really beginning to move against rigging of the silver market by JPMorganChase. The interview is headlined “Jim Cook Interviews Ted Butler” and it’s posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:

http://silverseek.com/commentary/jim-cook-interviews-ted-butler-17578

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

Jim Cook Interviews Ted Butler

|

February 13, 2019 – 2:37pm

Theodore Butler writes a $400 newsletter on silver. He is considered by many to be the world’s foremost authority on silver. Eighteen years ago he predicted that silver would go up ten times, which it did. We caught up with him at his home in Florida.

Q: As the world’s leading silver bull, are you expecting fireworks in silver?
A: More so than ever.

Q: You know of course that a lot of people who own silver have grown impatient. What do you say to them?
A: I feel the same impatience, however my expectations are based upon an extremely bullish set of facts. Impatience has nothing to do with it.

Q: How do you arrive at your bullish facts?
A: I study the Commitment of Traders and Bank Participation reports and numerous other statistics, trends and reports. There are any number of bullish arguments for why silver is a great buy right now.

Q: What are some of those bullish arguments?
A: Silver has never been more necessary. It is a vital component of just about every modern product. Production of silver has been flat for years. Quite simply, there will not be enough silver to go around and price rationing will be required.

Q: Anything else?
A: What makes the case for buying silver so compelling is the current low price. If silver was priced at $30 or $50 or $100 an ounce, the argument for buying would be much less compelling.

Q: Why is the price so low?
A: Because the price has been rigged by excessive paper speculation on the COMEX, largely at the hands of JPMorgan. For 11 years, JPMorgan has been the largest paper short seller and for the past 8 years it has also been the largest physical silver buyer. It is the financial manipulation of all time and I believe totally illegal.

Q: I know you have maintained this for years, but nothing’s come of it.
A: It certainly explains why silver has been down for so long.

Q: People want a reason for this long period of depressed prices to end. Do you see any reason?
A: Yes I do. On Nov. 6, the Department of Justice announced it was conducting an investigation of manipulation of precious metals prices on the COMEX. It came as part of a guilty plea by a former trader of JPMorgan. To me, this represents the greatest single opportunity for busting JPMorgan’s manipulation of silver prices.

Q: What if the Justice Department doesn’t see what you see?
A: We’re talking about both the Justice Department and the FBI. I consider it highly unlikely that either would conclude differently. Instead of asking me what if the DOJ and FBI don’t see what I allege, you should be asking what happens if they do agree with me.

Q: What happens if they agree?
A: It means the silver manipulation comes to an end and the price is set free. Consequently, you would be much better off owning it now because afterwards it will be obvious to the world what has been going on in silver.

Q: What happens if you are wrong?
A: If I’m wrong and the Justice Department doesn’t step up to the plate and end the manipulation, the downside is limited because the price of silver is already in the gutter and close to the cost of production. It’s not often one gets such a low risk and high profit opportunity.

Q: So you’re saying that things would stay the same?
A: No, I’m quite certain the Justice Department will act to some degree. In any case, JPMorgan’s role is going to diminish because the world is finding out what they have been doing. For one thing, they have accumulated 800 million ounces of physical silver. They know silver’s potential. That fact will prove to a lot of investors just how bullish the future is for the price of silver.

Jim Cook is the president of Investment Rarities Inc.

END

uSA Gold expects a breakout in gold’s price this year

(USA Gold//GATA)

USAGold’s News & Views finds expectations of gold’s breakout year

 Section: 

8:44p ET Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

USAGold’s “News & Views” newsletter for February asks whether 2019 will be gold’s “breakout” year and finds a fair number of analysts who indeed expect that it will be. The newsletter is posted in the clear at USAGold here:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/nv1002-feb19/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

 

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7745/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7840   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 1.37 POINTS OR 0.05% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 65.54 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed  DOWN 65.54 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.84/Euro RISES TO 1.1304

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.42/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 54.39 and Brent: 64/35

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN   /OFF- SHORE:DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.11%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.78% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.23%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.67: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.86

3k Gold at $1305.05 silver at:15.53   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 48/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.97

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.03 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0086 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1365 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.11%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.68% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.02%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3116

Early futures jump on trade deal optimism.  That faded fast on news from the Wall Street Journal that China/USA trade talks are deadlocked

 

 

Futures Jump On Latest Daily Trade Deal Optimism

It’s deja vu all over again, with global markets a sea of green, buoyed by US-China trade talk sentiment following a Bloomberg report that the US is considering a 60-day extension to the China March 1 tariff deadline (even if implicitly this confirms that there was virtually no progress made in the last few months, refuting the optimism of an imminent deal that helped push stocks over 17% from the December lows.

The big news catalyst overnight hit late on Monday night following a report that Trump was considering pushing back the deadline for imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese imports by 60 days, after earlier telling reporters that trade talks are “going along very well” and, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in China, investors had been daring to hope for good news.

And while traders were happy to bid up risk assets for one more day on a variation of the same positive news that has hit wires – or Trump’s twitter feed – for the past two months, they ignored a tweet from the editor in chief of China’s Global Times who said that “speculations of trade negotiations will be extended are inaccurate.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

I learned from source close to China-US trade talks that speculations of trade negotiations will be extended are inaccurate. The only thing that is certain now is the talks are underway.

This is also a reminder that bullish expectations have been disappointed before – in fact every single time – and so the reaction in Asian markets was muted with Shanghai stocks closing flat, having jumped 2% on Wednesday to levels last seen in late September.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, S&P futures levitated, now well above their 200 DMA, while European shares climbed for a fourth day to a three month high on, what else, optimism about U.S.-China trade talks though news that Germany only dodged recession by the narrowest of margins as its economy stagnated in Q4 following a Q3 contraction, left the euro feeling unloved on Valentine’s Day.

Strong results from Nestle, AstraZeneca and plane giant Airbus – which announced the discontinuation of its iconic A380 superjumbo – offset by a report from Credit Suisse which showed that trading losses eclipsed wealth-management gains, lifted the European STOXX 600 index 0.5% to put it on course for its best week since early November. A U.S. proposal for new sanctions on Russian banks and oil and gas firms sent shares in Moscow tumbling more than 2 percent and ignited rouble FX volatility gauges, while Russia’s 10-year bonds dropped the most since since November.

Earlier, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan eased 0.15%, though that was off a peak last seen in early October. Japan’s Nikkei touched its highest this year as a weakening yen boosted export stocks. China also shrugged off solid trade numbers, which however were distorted as exporters front-loaded their activities just before the Chinese New Year holidays. Beijing reported exports surged 9.1% in January from a year earlier, confounding expectations for a fall, while imports dipped by a surprisingly slight 1.5%.

“Cupid continues to shoot out bullish arrows across financial markets with last week’s blip almost forgotten about for now,” DB’s Jim Reid said in a morning note (see below).

However, as Reuters notes, “the euro did not share the feeling however” and the common currency struggled near a three-month low following the latest German GDP numbers, with fallout from global trade disputes and Brexit threatening to heap even more pressure on Europe’s rapidly slowing economy.

Elsewhere in FX, the dollar held its gains against most G10 peers during the European trading session, with the Bloomberg dollar index surging above 1,200, resuming its recent levitation and confounding many traders who were expecting it to slide. The greenback is now at its highest level since mid-December.

Meanwhile, the recent improvement in risk appetite undermined the safe haven yen and propelled the dollar to its best levels of the year so far at 111.05. The Australian dollar, often used as a liquid proxy for China risks, gained 0.4 percent to $0.7114 and S&P 500 futures added 0.15 percent. The Aussie dollar had already got a small lift when Chinese trade data handily beat expectations in a welcome relief for the global economy. The pound slumped ahead of another parliamentary vote on British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan.

Treasuries steadied alongside the dollar, and oil advanced. European core sovereign bonds edged higher and the single currency fluctuated after data showed the euro region’s biggest economy stagnated in the fourth quarter, but dodged recession.
Oil continued its rebound as falling shipments from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela outweighed gains in U.S. crude stockpiles. And the pound edged lower ahead of Parliament’s latest set of votes on Theresa May’s Brexit strategy, and on dovish remarks from a Bank of England policy maker.

In the latest Brexit news,  ERG is said to have told the Chief Whip they will not back the government today unless the motion on leaving the EU was changed (currently includes an amendment which Brexiteers believe removes the option of leaving without a deal) which the government refused. UK PM May spokesman says a no-deal Brexit remains on the table, and PM May is expected to speak to other EU leaders today. Separately, BoE’s Vlieghe says he considers appropriate pace of monetary tightening is somewhat slower:

  • The degree of future monetary tightening will in part depend on how large GBP appreciation is
  • In the case of a no-deal scenario I judge that an easing or an extended pause in monetary policy is more likely to be the appropriate policy response than a tightening
  • If a Brexit deal is made, a path of Bank Rate that involves around one quarter point hike per year seems a reasonable central case
  • As before, this future rate path is a forecast not a promise, and just as there is considerable uncertainty around the forecast for growth and inflation
  • The BoE would hike rates after a no-deal Brexit if needed, even if it is politically unpopular

In commodity markets, oil prices found support as top exporter Saudi Arabia said it would cut crude exports and deliver an even deeper output cut.  U.S. crude was up 56 cents, or 1 percent, at $54.42 a barrel, while Brent crude futures rose 97 cents to $64.50, its highest since November. Meanwhile, spot gold edged up 0.18% to $1,308.56 per ounce.

Economic data include PPI, retail sales and initial jobless claims. Coca-Cola, Nvidia and Duke Energy are due to report earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,756.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 366.79
  • MXAP down 0.1% to 156.96
  • MXAPJ down 0.1% to 515.58
  • Nikkei down 0.02% to 21,139.71
  • Topix up 0.03% to 1,589.81
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 28,432.05
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.05% to 2,719.70
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 35,870.44
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.07% to 6,059.39
  • Kospi up 1.1% to 2,225.85
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 0.112%
  • Euro up 0.06% to $1.1268
  • Brent futures up 1.5% to $64.53/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.9 bps to 2.425%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 1.228%
  • Brent futures up 1.5% to $64.53/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,306.46
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.04% to 97.09

Top Overnight News

  • President Donald Trump is considering pushing back the deadline for imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese imports by 60 days as the world’s two biggest economies try to negotiate a solution to their trade dispute, according to people familiar with the matter
  • A no-deal Brexit is more likely to require an easing than a tightening of monetary policy, according to Bank of England policy maker Gertjan Vlieghe
  • Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco dismissed concerns over increasingly tense relations between the Bank of Italy and the nation’s populist administration, saying that the central bank isn’t under attack and that its independence requires it to be accountable.
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May faces a revolt from pro-Brexit members of her Conservative Party in a vote Thursday to give her more time to secure binding changes to the divorce accord with the EU
  • A no-deal Brexit would be “extremely harmful” to British industry, eroding investment years into the future, the president of the U.K.’s biggest business lobby said
  • Chinese export growth unexpectedly rebounded in January, while imports fell, with companies trying to ship goods before Lunar New Year holidays likely boosting the result
  • Just hours after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on Russia amid “complacency” over new sanctions, the U.S. Senate introduced legislation to punish the country — spurring a selloff in assets
  • Trump is eyeing a path to avoid another government shutdown where he would reluctantly accept the congressional border-security deal and attempt to tap other funds for his wall
  • U.K. housing market stayed in the doldrums at the start of the year as Brexit caused both buyers and sellers to hesitate on deals

Asian equity markets were indecisive as the momentum from Wall St, where stocks notched a 4th consecutive gain and extended on YTD highs, was counterbalanced by cautiousness amid Chinese trade data and as senior level US-China trade talks began in Beijing. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was relatively flat following a deluge of earnings releases although the energy sector outperformed after the recent gains in crude prices, while Nikkei 225 (flat) was also flimsy due to mixed GDP data and a choppy currency. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) declined at the open following another substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC and amid tentativeness heading into the key trade data which was expected to show continued ill-effects from the US-China trade dispute. Chinese stocks then only partially recovered despite the data topping estimates across the board with many wary due to Lunar New Year distortions and as the data also showed imports from US fell by 41.2% Y/Y, while reports that President Trump was mulling a 60-day extension to the tariff deadline was only gradual in its support. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher following the less than inspiring Japanese GDP data which despite showing that Japan’s economy returned to an expansion, the headline Q/Q growth fell short of estimates and there were also downward revisions to the prior readings. Furthermore, the BoJ were present in the market for JPY 580bln of JGBs with the bulk concentrated on 5yr-10yr maturities. US President Trump is said to weigh 60-day extension for tariff deadline according to sources, while there had been earlier comments from President Trump that the trade deal with China is going very well. This was however downplayed by the China Global Times Editor

Top Asian News

  • India January Wholesale Prices Rise 2.76% Y/y; Est. 3.70%
  • Asia Stocks Hover Around Highest Since October Amid Trade Talks
  • Ant Financial Agrees to Buy U.K. Payments Firm WorldFirst
  • The Tariffs No One Seems to Want Edge Closer to Trump’s Arsenal

Following an earnings filled open, major European indices are predominantly in the green [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%] with some slight outperformance in the CAC (+0.6%) and SMI (+0.6%), following earnings from Airbus (+4.9%) and Nestle (+3.1%); with the latter the largest Co. in Europe carrying a 3% weighting in the Euro Stoxx 600. Sectors are also predominantly in positive territory, although there is some slight underperformance in Financial names; weighed on by the likes of Credit Suisse (-1.6%) who have moved lower following earnings, where they proposed a dividend of CHF 0.26 vs. Exp. CHF 0.30. Other notable movers include, AstraZeneca (+4.9%) who are higher after their earnings beat on expectations, with Legrand (+7.3%) also in the green after earnings. Towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600 are Telenet (-4.4%) who’s full-year operating profit missed expectations. Elsewhere, Wirecard (+7.4%) are higher, with latest reports in German press suggesting that short sellers were aware about the FT article relating to the Co before it’s publication.

Top European News

  • Puma Falls Most Since December on Profit Forecast Short of Views
  • RBS Said to Be Among Eight Banks in Euro Bond Cartel Probe
  • EU Crackdown on Tax Breaks Takes Hit as Belgium Wins Court Clash
  • Commerzbank Delivers on Costs as Zielke Cuts Some Targets

In FX, the Dollar continues find buyers on dips, and the latest pull-back in the DXY was notably shallow before the index reclaimed 97.000+ status on its way to another fresh ytd best (albeit marginal at 97.291). The Buck remains supported on encouraging US-China trade developments and prospects that President Trump will sign-off on the bipartisan funding proposal in time to avoid another Government shutdown, but also as major and EM currency counterparts weaken further on independent/specific bearish factors.

  • NZD/AUD – Some erosion of momentum due to the aforementioned general Greenback bid, but the Kiwi and Aussie are still outperforming in wake of overnight Chinese trade data showing a larger than expected surplus. Nzd/Usd is holding firm above 0.6800 and also deriving support from cross-positioning as Aud/Nzd ducks under 1.0400 and Aud/Usd retreats faster from 0.7130+ peaks again to test support around 0.7100.
  • EUR/CHF/JPY/GBP/CAD – All narrowly mixed vs the Usd, with the single currency trying to keep tabs on the 1.1300 handle, but weighed down by the latest weaker than expected German macro release as the former Eurozone powerhouse stagnated in Q4 following contraction in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the Franc is edging closer to 1.1000, with sub-forecast and deflationary Swiss producer/import prices a drag, and its safe-haven peer has also extended losses through 111.00 to new 2019 lows. The Pound lost more ground ahead of today’s Brexit vote, with Cable only saved by short covering/profit taking after testing the 55 DMA (1.2813) and withstanding broadly dovish rhetoric from BoE’s Vlieghe. Elsewhere, the Loonie is pivoting 1.3250 ahead of Canadian manufacturing sales and new home price data, with the ongoing recovery in crude only mildly supportive.
  • EM  – As noted above, regional currencies are underperforming against the Usd, and with the Rub and Try also negatively impacted by sanctions and data misses respectively. Rouble back below 66.7500 and Lira under 5.3100 at worst.

In commodities, WTI (+1.0%) and Brent (+1.5%) continue on their upward trajectory with prices underpinned by trade hopes alongside lower Saudi output forecasts. In early EU trade, Russian Energy Minister Novak noted that there are no proposals as of yet to lift oil production due to tail risk from Venezuela. Furthermore, Novak stated that Moscow are aiming to cut February output ahead of schedule. Overnight, Chinese trade balance numbers were released wherein imports of crude in January topped 10mln BPD, +5% Y/Y/. ING notes that despite the Y/Y increase, this is still off from record levels seen at the back-end of 2018; 10.48mln BPD in November and 10.35mln BPD in December, “the very strong imports seen towards the end of last year seem to reflect refiners using their import quota licences before the end of the year” says ING. Metals are relatively mixed with gold (Unch) flat ahead of the widely watched trade talks in Beijing. Elsewhere, copper climbed higher following a wider-than-expected trade surplus from China, the world’s largest consumer of the red metal. Furthermore, copper imports into China rose by 12% from December to just under 480k tonnes in January, the highest level since September 2018; according to customs data. Finally, Dalian iron ore rebounded after declining over 4% in the last two sessions, though the recent Vale-induced rally in the base metal have reportedly damped appetite at Chinese Steel mills.

In terms of the day ahead, it’s busy in the US this afternoon with the January PPI (+0.2% mom core reading expected) report due out alongside the December retail sales report (+0.4% mom core reading expected) and the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading (-9k decline to 225k expected). Later on we’ll get November business inventories. Away from that the Fed’s Harker will speak again today while the BoE’s Vlieghe is also due to speak this morning. Italian Finance Minister Tria is also due to speak this afternoon. As highlighted earlier expect politics to also be a focus with the Brexit vote and US-China trade meetings.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.2%; PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.1%, prior 2.5%; PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.7%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 234,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.74m, prior 1.74m
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%
    • Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.35%, prior 0.9%
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 58.2
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.2%, prior 0.6%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today is the day I’m always late for work as its an annual battle to fight my way through the deluge of cards posted through my letter box first thing in the morning. Not to mention the balloons and other assorted gifts. So Happy Valentine’s Day everyone. In the real world I’ll probably end up empty handed again apart from cards from my children although I learnt something a little upsetting yesterday. When I’ve come from work over the last couple of weeks one of the twins has pointed at me and has started saying “Dada”. It’s really sweet. Over dinner last night I was saying to my wife how lovely it was to get such a greeting and that it makes my day. She looked a bit sheepish and said that she’d be meaning to tell me something. She went on to say that every man he has seen over the last couple of weeks he has pointed at and said “Dada”. This includes our builders, the gardener, the postman, the Sainsbury’s delivery man and other Dads who go to the same classes. Sigh. Next she’ll be telling me the cards I get from them tonight weren’t done by them.

Cupid continues to shoot out bullish arrows across financial markets with last week’s blip almost forgotten about for now. Given that much of the mini sell-off last week was due to European growth being downgraded, it will be interesting to see if Germany can avoid a technical recession (+0.1% expected) in today’s Q4 GDP release and what the headlines and sentiment will be after. More on that in the day ahead. The big data release yesterday was US CPI but that did little to disturb this week’s rebound. Indeed market sentiment continues to be dictated by the twin pillars of the prospect of the US government staying open past Friday and at the margin more positive than negative US-China trade sound bites. The latter should take on more focus today and tomorrow following the news we noted in yesterday’s EMR from the South China Post that China President Xi Jinping will be meeting with US representatives Lighthizer and Mnuchin tomorrow. This opens the possibility of getting more detailed commentary from the US and/or China sides as to how talks are progressing. In the meantime Lighthizer and Mnuchin are due to meet delegates from China today including perhaps Vice-Premier Liu He. Adding to the positive sound bites around trade talks, Trump said overnight that “I think it’s going along very well, They’re showing us tremendous respect.” Further, Bloomberg has also reported overnight (citing sources) that President Trump is considering pushing back the deadline for imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese imports by 60 days from March 1 to give negotiations more time to continue.

Despite positive trade headlines, markets this morning in Asia are trading mixed with the Nikkei up (+0.08%) while the Hang Seng (-0.42%), Shanghai Comp (-0.30%) and Kospi (-0.10%) are all down. However, all the indices are off their lows since trade headlines trickled in. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.11% and all G10 currencies are largely trading up (0.1%-0.5%) against the greenback with the exception of the Japanese yen. Overnight, China also released its January trade stats with exports unexpectedly rising +9.1% yoy (vs -3.3% yoy expected) while imports declined -1.5% yoy (vs. -10.2% yoy expected) leaving the trade surplus at $39.16bn (vs. $34.30bn expected). In terms of China’s trade with the US in January, exports to the US dropped by -2.4% yoy in dollar terms while imports slumped by more than -41% yoy leading to China’s January trade surplus with the US at $27.3bn vs. a peak of $35.5bn in November 2018, although November’s numbers are likely to have been impacted by front loading of China’s exports to the US ahead of tariff implementation in December. Interestingly though China’s January trade surplus with the US at $27.3bn is still higher than the average January trade surplus (c. $21.65bn) with the US over the past 4 years. Elsewhere Japan’s preliminary annualised Q4 GDP growth came in line with consensus at +1.4% qoq annualised with business spending standing at +2.4% qoq (vs. +1.8% qoq expected) while private consumption stood at +0.6% qoq (vs. +0.7% qoq expected).

As for the government shutdown, yesterday the Washington Post reported that Trump is likely to sign the legislation in order to avert a shutdown but then also likely pursue an executive order to reallocate federal funds towards barrier projects. In public remarks, Trump said, “a shutdown would be a terrible thing, I don’t want to see another one, there’s no reason for it,” so hopefully that will prove conclusive. The House of Representatives is set to vote later today, where passage is almost assured, before sending the bill to the Senate tonight for approval before President Trump gives his final approval or veto.

Back to markets where the S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ rose another +0.27%, +0.46% and +0.08%, respectively, by the closing bell last night. All three indexes had jumped higher at the open, with the S&P 500 up as much as +0.62%, but all three subsequently retraced after Republican Senator Marco Rubio announced a plan to change tax laws to make share buybacks less favourable. Currently, buybacks boost equity prices but investors can defer their tax liability and pay it at a time of their choosing. In contrast, dividends are taxed as ordinary income. Rubio’s plan would equalize the tax treatment between the two techniques. This follows a Democratic proposal from Senators Sanders and Schumer, which would place different limits on buybacks. So there may be hints of a bipartisan consensus forming on the topic, which would presumably be negative for equity markets all other things being equal. S&P 500 companies bought back around $650 billion of their own shares last year, on a net basis. This compares with around $450 billion in 2017.

Even though markets fell from the morning highs, that’s four consecutive daily gains for the S&P and it’s put the index at within just 1.37% of the December highs. Impressively it’s also back to within 6.42% of the all-time high from back in September after being off as much as 19.78% at one stage and over 20% intra-day at the lows. Meanwhile rates sold-off marginally post yesterday’s ever so slightly stronger than expected US CPI print. The move was hardly eye-watering though with Treasuries rising from a low 2.679% to 2.713% post the data, before closing at 2.708% and +2.0bps on the day. The 2s10s curve flattened -0.9bps while the USD (+0.47%) resumed its upward march once again to reach a two-month high. That move weighed on emerging markets, as EM currencies posted their worst day since last August, dropping -0.89%, and EM equities shed -0.71%. HY credit spreads tightened -3bps. Nick in my team yesterday put out a note showing that although its tempting to favour US HY over European on growth differentials, he shows how cheap Euro HY is on a relative basis. See the report here .

It was a similar story for markets in Europe where the STOXX 600 closed +0.60%. That puts the week-to-date move at +1.93% and the YTD move now at +6.30% and back within 0.15% of last week’s YTD highs before growth and trade fears resurfaced. We are still -10.35% below 2018’s high which compares to the equivalent figure of -6.39% mentioned above for the S&P500. The FTSE MIB (+0.93%) was up a little more than most but the IBEX (-0.01%) was the notable underperformer with the risk of a snap election rising in Spain. Yesterday, parliament rejected the Socialist Party’s 2019 budget with Casado – leader of the opposition People’s Party – telling reporters that there is now no excuse for PM Sanchez to delay an election, with Bloomberg citing April as the likely month the election would take place. Recent polls suggest that political support is fairly fragmented at the moment in Spain with a centre-right coalition most likely. Spanish bonds were flat yesterday which compared to a -6.0bps rally for BTPs.

Coming back to that US CPI report, the core reading for January was confirmed as rising +0.2% mom and in line with expectations although the unrounded reading was a slightly more hawkish +0.2395% (it wont be long before we add a 5th decimal!). That meant the annual rate held at +2.2% yoy compared to expectations for +2.1% while both the 3m (+2.2%) and 6m (+2.6%) annualized rates remain solid and consistent with inflation at or slightly above the Fed’s target.

Over at the Fed it was a busy day for speeches, with Atlanta President Bostic, Cleveland President Mester, and Philadelphia President Harker all speaking. None are voting members of the FOMC this year and all delivered fairly boilerplate remarks, focusing on the strong US economy but elevated uncertainties. Bostic said “we can take our time” to get to neutral, which is perhaps revealing as it suggests that he views current rates as still-below their neutral level. Mester suggested that a switch from inflation rate targeting to price level targeting has some appeal, which is a topic that will become more prominent when the Fed launches their planned policy review in June. Finally, Harker reiterated his previous view in favour of one hike this year and one next year, though it is noteworthy that he does not seem to have shifted his views over the last two months, despite a shift on the rest of the committee. The center of the committee seems to have moved toward the doves, but the doves have not yet moved any further.

Meanwhile, Brexit headlines have hit a lull with PM May having bought further time. A reminder though that the neutral motion vote is due today with some indications that the ERG might pull support leading to a government defeat. This is however just symbolic. The real fun and games will occur in two weeks time. Sterling closed-0.35% last night with yesterday’s January inflation data in the UK doing little to move the dial either. Core CPI rose three-tenths to +1.9% yoy as expected which puts the next focus on the labour market data next week which is arguably more important given the BoE tightening bias which is predicated on firming domestic costs.

As for the other data that was out yesterday, the December industrial production print for the Euro Area was confirmed at a much weaker than expected -0.9% mom (vs. -0.4% expected). That did however more closely reflect the country level data last week so the consensus reading was a little misleading. The euro finished -0.51% yesterday.

For those of an accounting bent, as companies begin to adopt the new Human Capital Reporting standard, Luke Templeman on my team has calculated the “Human Capital Return on Investment” for European stocks – one of the key requirements. This feeds directly into fair valuation calculations and just one unexpected outcome was that in 2018, share price returns were more correlated with “Human Capital RoI” than they were with a stock’s Return on Equity. Click here .

In terms of the day ahead, this morning the big focus will be on the preliminary Q4 GDP print in Germany, due about an hour after this hits your emails. The consensus expects a +0.1% mom reading which as a reminder follows a negative reading in Q3 (-0.2% qoq). However given the slim margins it’s not impossible that Germany could be in a technical recession. Also due out this morning is Q4 employment data in France followed later by the second reading on Q4 GDP for the Euro Area (no change from +0.2% qoq flash expected). Meanwhile, it’s busy in the US this afternoon with the January PPI (+0.2% mom core reading expected) report due out alongside the December retail sales report (+0.4% mom core reading expected) and the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading (-9k decline to 225k expected). Later on we’ll get November business inventories. Away from that the Fed’s Harker will speak again today while the BoE’s Vlieghe is also due to speak this morning. Italian Finance Minister Tria is also due to speak this afternoon. As highlighted earlier expect politics to also be a focus with the Brexit vote and US-China trade meetings.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.37 POINTS OR 0.05% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 65.54 POINTS OR 0.23%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 4.77 POINTS OR 0.02%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.01%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7745 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 54.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.

 ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7745 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7840: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

3 C CHINA

i) CHINA/USA

Interesting:  China’s global exports surge in January but trade with the USA tumbles:

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Global Exports Surge In January But Trade With US Tumbles

Amid intensifying trade talks, Chinese exports rebounded dramatically in January as companies trying to ship goods ahead of the Lunar New Year shutdown likely exaggerated the gains.

In USD terms, exports rose 9.1% in January from a year earlier (far above expectations of a 3.3% decline and December’s 4.4% YoY drop). Imports also smashed expectations: falling just 1.5% against expectations for a 10.2% collapse.

In Yuan terms, Exports rose and even more impressive 13.9% YoY and imports rose 2.9% YoY (both far better than expected).

The overall trade surplus fell in both Yuan and USD terms from December.

Impressive numbers, but as Bloomberg details, the Lunar New Year break coming about 10 days earlier than last year probably boosted January’s shipments, as companies rushed to ship more goods ahead of the holiday shutdown of many factories and companies.

Trade with US tumbled with both exports and imports plunging further in January.

China Jan. exports to U.S. was $36.54b and imports from U.S. was $9.24b, according to website of General Administration of Customs.

Also of note, China’s crude oil imports -2.7%MoM to 10.07m b/d last month, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from General Administration of Customs Thursday.

“We expect that growth of exports in 2019 will decelerate from 2018, even if there is a deal not to raise tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports, due to lackluster global economy,” UBS AG economist Ning Zhang said.

“But if there’s a deal to scrap all the existing tariffs, that will be a different scenario, and the exports will not weaken significantly.”

The initial reaction was a kneejerk higher in yuan but that is fading…

 

END

LAST NIGHT:

We have to put up with this nonsense for another 60 days as Trump is considering pushing back the deadline for imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese imports by 60 days. Obviously the talks are not doing well!

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Futures, Yuan Spike On China Tariff Delay Headlines

US equity futures and China’s yuan both kneejerked higher on Bloomberg reports that President Trump is considering pushing back the deadline for imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese imports by 60 days.

Having already hinted at it during a pool spray today that he was open to letting the March 1 deadline for more than doubling tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods slide if the two countries are close to a deal, Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter,Trump is weighing whether to add 60 days to the current deadline to give negotiations more time to continue.

Yuan spiked…

As did US futures…

However, some human traders (as opposed to headline algos) are wondering why this would be perceived as bullish at all as it simply indicates they are no closer to deal than they were 60 days ago and the 10% tariffs will remain in effect – weighing on global trade (as the Baltic Dry Index collapse suggests)…

end

THIS MORNING:  THE CHINESE MEDIA DENY REPORTS OF A TRADE DEADLINE EXTENSION

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chinese Media Deny Reports Of Trade Deadline Extension

Update: The editor of the English-language Global Times – a mouthpiece for the Communist Party – has disputed reports that a deadline delay has been discussed.

The only thing that’s certain right now is that “talks are underway.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

I learned from source close to China-US trade talks that speculations of trade negotiations will be extended are inaccurate. The only thing that is certain now is the talks are underway.

* * *

In a report that will likely be cheered by investors, many of whom believe an extension of the Trump administration’s “hard” trade deadline would be the best-case scenario for stocks (given that, by all accounts, the two sides are nowhere agreement on the sweeping trade deal that Trump had promised), Bloombergreported late on Thursday that President Trump was considering a 60-day extension of the March 1 deadline, as the world’s two biggest economies try to negotiate a solution to their trade dispute.

Trump

Though he has said he’s not “inclined” to extend the deadline, several sources close to the president reportedly told BBG that an extension would be approved if the two sides are close to a deal that includes “deep structural changes to China’s economic policies.”

“I think it’s going along very well,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office this week. “They’re showing us tremendous respect.”

The news spiked both the Yuan:

… And US futures:

The extension would allow time for President Trump and President Xi Jinping to meet in person, something Trump has insisted must happen before he would sign off on a trade deal. A mid-level delegation of US trade officials has been in Beijing this week reportedly negotiating on an enforcement mechanism to ensure Beijing’s compliance with the deal, as well as cobbling together a deal framework that can be presented to both leaders. BBG added that an extension might depend on the outcome of a meeting between Lighthizer and Xi that’s expected to take place this week.

“The outcome of the China-U.S. high-level economic and trade negotiations may be related to the future development and stability of the world economy,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at a regular briefing Thursday in Beijing.“Both parties hope to reach a mutually beneficial agreement. The best thing we can do now is to let both sides concentrate on consultations.”

The US has pushed for a range of reforms to the Chinese economy, from how China manages its own economy, to its foreign trade practices. Trump has insisted that China take steps to reduce the US-China trade deficit, while Lighthizer has specifically focused on ending Beijing’s institutionalized IP theft and the advantages given to Chinese state-sponsored companies operating in China’s domestic market.

Shortly after Trump and Xi agreed to the trade truce during a dinner in Buenos Aires on Dec. 1, the president and Lighthizer, who is in charge of the trade talks on the US side, insisted that the March 1 deadline wouldn’t be moved. But reports so far suggest that only moderate progress has been made.

Still, an extension would be enough of a signal to markets that progress is being made. The biggest issue for the Trump Administration would be holding the Chinese accountable to ensure that this is the only delay necessary.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

/UK

This study finds a no deal Brexit would hurt Germany the most as exports into the UK would plummet.  They state that Germany would lose 103,000 jobs

(courtesy zerohedge)

Where A No-Deal Brexit Would Hit Hardest

In recent weeks, the chances of a dreaded no-deal Brexit occurring have increased exponentially ahead of the deadline on March 29th.

A new study has looked into that scenario’s potential impact on jobs across the worldStatista’s Niall McCarthy notes that the analysis was carried out by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), focusing on 56 industrial sectors across 43 countries while assuming a 25 percent drop in EU exports to the UK in the event of a hard Brexit.

It found that Germany could lose the most jobs with around 103,000 threatened if the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal.

Infographic: Where A No-Deal Brexit Would Hit Hardest | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Even though Europe’s economic powerhouse could be impacted most in terms of the sheer number of jobs, the situation is different when it comes to the share of total employment threatened.

In this case, only 0.24 percent of Germany’s workforce would be under threat compared to 1.03 percent of all jobs in Ireland. That’s despite “only” 19,800 Irish jobs potentially being impacted.

end
Looks like they are heading for a no deal Brexit
(courtesy zerohedge)

Cable Stable After May Suffers Another Defeat On Brexit Plan B Vote

Another day, another Brexit-related vote… and another disappointment for UK PM Theresa May.

As The FT reports, Theresa May has suffered a substantial parliamentary defeat on her Brexit plan B, undermining her credibility as she seeks to continue negotiations with the EU.

The prime minister lost by 303 votes to 258 after seeking MPs’ backing for her approach to renegotiating her withdrawal agreement with the EU after the House of Commons emphatically rejected it last month.

Thursday’s vote against her brought into serious question her claim two weeks ago to have “a substantial and sustainable majority” of MPs in favour of her approach.

The reaction (or lack of it) tells you all you need to know about this non-binding vote…

Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn was quick to jump on the bandwagon (though notably has no solutions himself)…

“Tonight’s vote shows there is no majority for supporting the prime minister’s course of action on Brexit.”

Additionally, both wings of the Conservative party – Europhiles and Eurosceptics – expressed anger at Mrs May’s parliamentary tactics earlier in the day.

The Food and Drink Federation is quick with its response:

“The defeat of the Government motion tonight will increase fears among food and drink manufacturers that there is now a diminishing prospect of rescue from the catastrophe of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit,” Chief Executive Ian Wright says in a statement.

The First Minister of Wales comments after the vote (Mark Drakeford @fmwales):

The PM is simply counting down the clock and forcing us into choice of no deal or her deal. This is a trap. It’s time to take no deal off the table, bring forward legislation to remove March 29th as exit day & seek extension to Article 50.”

A no-deal brexit seems to be looming ever closer.

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela/USA

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1268 UP .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.03  UP .097 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2809    DOWN   0.0046  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3263 UP .0003 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 3 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1293/ Last night Shanghai composite closed DOWN 1.37 POINTS OR 0.05%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 65.54  POINTS OR 0.23% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .01%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 4.77  POINTS OR 0.02% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 65.54 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.37 POINTS OR 0.05% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.01%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 4.77 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1304.70

silver:$15.54

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.68% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.02 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.22 UP 19 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.57% DOWN 2     in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.24% UP 1   IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.80 UP 2    POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 156 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.10%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.70% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1283 UP   .0018 or 18 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 110.68 DOWN  0.250 OR 25 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2795 DOWN.0059( POUND DOWN 59  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 49 basis points to 1.3308

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed HOLIDAY AT 6.7720    0N SHORE

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7833(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.3045

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.66 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.02 DOWN 1  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.17 UP 4 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 6,17 OR 0.09%

German Dax : DOWN 77.43 POINTS OR 0.69%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 11,75 POINTS OR  0.23%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 29.90 POINTS OR  0.33%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 154,94 POINTS OR 0.79%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.97 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 6423 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    67.01  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.52 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 52 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD LOWERS TO +.10 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  54.56

 

 

BRENT :  64.56

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.66..

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.01

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1293 ( UP 28    BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.53 DOWN .403 (YEN UP 40   BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.03 DOWN 10 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2793  DOWN 62 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.2818

the Russian rouble 66.67   down .17 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 17 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.389 DOWN 30 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7720  (ONSHORE)/CLOSED FOR THE WEEK

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7777  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.10%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 103.61 POINTS OR 0.41%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 6.58 POINTS OR 0.09%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.99 CLOSED UP .34 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.684%  

 

 

FROM 2.692

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Stocks Stumble After Retail Rout, Coke Collapse, Bezos Bombshell, & Trade Turmoil

The algos were in charge today as headline after headline spooked stocks and sparked buying panics…

China continues to extend post-new year gains…

 

European markets dropped today (hurt by US retail sales sentiment)

 

And before we get to US markets, let’s just ponder this shitshow…

And GDP expectations are cratering…

US Futures show the day’s chaos – standard overnight drift higher (positive China trade data which is only good due to new year timing), then a punch in the face by US retail sales, followed by headlines on China trade being “deadlocked”, stocks puked into the open only to be rescued by Larry Kudlow proclaiming everything is awesome. Stocks were steady then kneejerked up on headlines from McConnell that Trump will sign border deal but were unsure as Trump is said to use emergency powers to fund his wall…and then we dumped into the close…

 

Small Caps, Trannies and Nasdaq outperformed…

 

Another short-squeeze saves the day…

 

The Buyback index is up 30 days this year (only 3 down days)…

 

Coke was not “it” today…

 

Bezos abandoned NY and the stock surged back to unchanged before fading back

But SL Green Realty stumbled…

 

 

Treasury yields tumbled after the retail sales collapse…also perhaps helped by the fact that the IG calendar slowed…

 

30Y Yields tumbled back below 3.00% on the retail sales print…

 

The dollar swung around like a penny stocks today on the back of weak data and trade headlines…

 

Cable drifted lower after several more failed Brexit votes…

 

Cryptos flatlined despite headlines about JPMCoin…

 

Copper and silver lagged today as oil and gold gained (as the former performed another miracle)…

 

Gold pushed up to its strongest relative to silver since late December…

 

Finally we ask “did stocks just ring the bell?”

BMO’s Brad Wishak points out that the largest stock market in the world is suggesting perhaps so, as we again stall out on a test of the 200 day moving-average (as we did in Nov and Dec as well). The NYSE ($30 trillion market cap) continues to be my most reliable guidepost despite getting little attention from the mainstream overall. DING DING.

end

MARKET TRADING

Early trading this morning after release of a huge retail sales slump in December and then news that trade talks are “deadlocked”..as we promised you it would be

(courtesy zero hedge)

US Equities Plunge After Retail Sales Slump, Trade-Talks “Deadlocked”

Just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water – reality takes two big bites out of your paddleboard.

Retail sales collapsed in December

…enough said about that – sparking an initial leg lower in stocks.

But then, The Wall Street Journal struck with a headline warning that US-China trade talks are deadlocked:

Trade talks remain deadlocked as Beijing refuses to eliminate coerced technology transfers or government subsidies to Chinese companies.

During the negotiations this week that were in their fourth day Thursday, U.S. and Chinese officials have remained deadlocked on a number of issues underlying the current trade dispute, according to people with knowledge of the matter. These include Washington’s complaints that China pressures American firms to share technology and uses industrial policies to favor domestic companies at the expense of U.S. competitors.

Having denied those allegations, Chinese officials instead are focusing on ways to boost U.S. exports to China. For instance, China’s top economic-planning agency is proposing to increase U.S. semiconductor sales to China to $200 billion over six years, said U.S. companies briefed on the plan. The sum is about a fivefold increase over current exports.

…and that accelerated the decline in stocks…

Sending all the majors into the red ahead of the cash open…

Interestingly, yuan has not reacted (yet)…

Exactly as we warned overnight, the headlines hinting at a 60-day delay for the tariff increase were not a bullish sign, they signal that neither side is any nearer a deal than they were 60 days ago.

But don’t worry…

zerohedge@zerohedge

He’s on it…

 

END

then: late morning: bounce fails and S and P tumble below key technical level

(zerohedge)

Opening-Bounce Fails, S&P Tumbles Below Key Technical Level

Having tumbled over 200 points in the pre-market ahead of the open, the algos attempted the ubiquitous momo ignition but it failed and US equities accelerated lower…

With the S&P breaking back below its all-important 200DMA

10Y Yields are tumbling too – is it time for stocks to catch down to reality?

 

end
Late morning: the bounce is erased on reports that the USA China trade deal is “far apart”
(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Erase Kudlow Bounce On Reports US-China “Far Apart” On Trade Deal

The pre-market plunge on retail sales and trade headlines was bounced higher by Kudlow’s jawboning that “everything is awesome.” However, Bloomberg reports thatUS and China remain “far apart” on the trade deal spooked stocks back lower…

Bloomberg reports that in closed-door sessions, the sides have failed to narrow the gap around structural reforms to China’s economy that the U.S. has requested, even as both seek to avoid an increase in tariffs after March 1.

According to three U.S. and Chinese officials who asked not to be identified, the U.S. and China have made little progress so far during trade talks in Beijing, leaving much work to be done before President Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping look to seal a deal at a yet-to-be scheduled summit.

Time to wheel out Kudlow again stat!

end

ii)Market data/

The biggy!!  the all important retail sales collapsed in December and this was the worst Christmas reading in quite some decade, in at least 10 years.  Needless to say that this will be a disaster for 4th quarter GDP where it will probably fall into the 1% category.

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Retail Sales Collapse In December: Biggest Drop In A Decade

While Bank of America had warned investors to brace for a dismal retail spending print in January, expectations remained positive (albeit just a 0.1% MoM move) for December’s (delayed due to shutdown) official spending data today. As a reminder, on Tuesday we reported that retail sales ex-autos, as measured by the aggregated BAC credit and debit card data, tumbled 0.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted in January – the biggest drop in three years. This followed a flat reading in retail sales ex-autos in December.

Turning to the January BAC internal data, in January, spending for 4 out of 14 sectors increased in the month, showing broad-based weakening.

As a reminder, Retail Sales for the Control Group soared in November (+0.9% MoM) so some slowdown was expected; but, the government’s official retail spending data for December confirmed BofA’s concerns and plunged…

  • Headline Retail Sales -1.2% MoM (+0.1% MoM exp)
  • Control Group Retail Sales -1.7% MoM (+0.4% MoM exp)

That is the biggest MoM drop in retail sales since 2009 for the headline and the biggest drop in the control group since the 9/11 attacks in 2001!

Which sent the Year-over-year retail sales data reeling…

These numbers are horrible,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC.

“It appears to contrast quite sharply with reports of Christmastime sales that were generally seen as quite healthy,” and for the Fed, “rate normalization is on the back burner for a long time to come.”

This is the worst December retail sales print since 2008 (and 2nd worst in history)…

The disaster was broad-based…

But most notably, December online internet sales (non-store retailers) tumbled 3.9% MoM – the biggest drop ever

(oddly with Amazon claiming record holiday sales for the same month).

Needless to say, this will be a disaster for Q4 GDP forecasts which we now expect to print in the low 1% range.

BofA remains pessimistic:

“While there are a number of special factors that skew the data, the softening of late has revealed the weakest trend for consumer spending since mid-2016.”

And finally, we guarantee the words “pent up demand” will be uttered today on CNBC as the latest excuse for why the US consumer is crushed.

 

END

Three banks lower their estimate for GDP to 2.0%.  However the Atlanta Fed lowers its estimate to 1.6%. Eventually this number will settle around 1.00%

(courtesy zerohedge)

Q4 GDP Estimates Crashing Down After Disastrous Retail Sales

Following the biggest plunge in the retail sales control group – the one variable that feeds into the BEA’s GDP estimates – since Sept 11…

… we said that “this will be a disaster for Q4 GDP forecasts which we now expect to print in the low 1% range.”

And sure enough, the downgrades started shortly thereafter, with virtually every bank slashing its estimates for Q4 GDP.

JPMorgan was first, and now forecasts that Q4 GDP grew at just 2.0% annualized, down sharply from the bank’s prior estimate of 2.6%.

Barclays joined the bandwagon, cutting its previous 2.8% Q4 GDP forecast to 2.1%.

Goldman wasn’t far behind, and in a note released by its economics team, said that “the retail sales report indicated a considerably weaker pace of fourth quarter consumption growth than we had previously assumed. Reflecting this and lower-than-expected November business inventories, we lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by five tenths to +2.0% (qoq ar).” Goldman also  lowered its subjective odds of a Q2 Fed hike to 15% (from 25% previously), which is of course, amusing considering that as recently as 2 months ago Goldman was expecting 4 rate hikes in 2019.

But the most scathing revision came from the Atlanta Fed, whose GDPNow just suffered its biggest graviational “glitch” in history, crashing to just 1.5% following today’s retail sales data, down nearly 50% from 2.7% as recently as February 6. This is how the economist ‘experts’ at the Fed justified their reasoning:

After this morning’s retail sales and retail inventories releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent, and the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.27 percentage points to -0.55 percentage points.

And visually:

Why such a dramatic cut? Because apparently nobody could possibly expect retail sales to plunge so much. Nobody, of course, except the occasional “fringe” website, which warned to “Brace For A Plunge In Retail Sales.”

The moron Kudlow states that the retail sales plunge was due to a glitch. The government shutdown probably had a very minor effect as it started on Dec 21./2018,

(courtesy zerohedge)

Kudlow Says Retail Sales Plunge Due To A “Glitch”, No Decision On Extending Tariff Deadline

Six weeks after president Trump said that the December plunge in the market was due to a “little glitch”…

zerohedge@zerohedge

Trump Blames December Stock Plunge On “Little Glitch” https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-02/trump-blames-december-stock-plunge-little-glitch 

Trump Blames December Stock Plunge On “Little Glitch”

…so it’s not Jay Powell’s fault?

 

… moments ago, his chief economic advisor when asked by Fox News to explain today’s disastrous, worst-in-9-years retail sales number, picked up on his boss’ phrasing, and claimed it was due to, drumroll, a glitch.

  • *KUDLOW SAYS THERE ARE `GLITCHES’ IN RETAIL SALES NUMBER

And following the market’s sharp drop today, when first the dismal retail sales then a WSJ report that US-China talks are “deadlocked”, Kudlow’s uttering of the magic word, appears to have stabilizied stocks for now

That said, the Kudlow narrative wasn’t all smoke and mirrors, and he correctly said that the retail sales were affected by the government shudown:

  • *KUDLOW SAYS RETAIL SALES AFFECTED BY GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

… just as we showed was indeed the case earlier this week:

 

Kudlow then touched on Trump’s on again/off again central bank nemesis, the Federal Reserve, saying that he is “delighted” the Fed is on hold and hopes Powell will step aside:

  • *KUDLOW SAYS HOPEFULLY NOW FED WILL STEP ASIDE
  • *KUDLOW SAYS HE’S `DELIGHTED’ THE FED IS ON HOLD

Finally, in some not so good news, Kudlow also said that while US trade negotiators in Beijing are meeting with Xi tomorrow amid a “good vibe”, contrary to earlier reports, no decision has been made yet on extending the tariff deadline:

  • *KUDLOW SAYS NO DECISION MADE ON EXTENDING TARIFF DEADLINE
  • *KUDLOW SAYS TRADE NEGOTIATORS MEETING WITH XI TOMORROW
  • *KUDLOW SAYS THE VIBE IN BEIJING IS GOOD

So far, Kudlow’s verbal intervention has been successful, and the market drop has been arrested with the S&P hoping to regain the 200DMA.

end

The Fed will not be excited with this;  PPI growth is the slowest since July 2017..with the chief culprit being energy

(courtesy zerohedge)

PPI Growth Slowest Since July 2017 As Energy Prices Plunge

Just in case the worst retail sales print since 2009 wasn’t enough, moments ago the BLS also reported that producer prices in January printed at -0.1% M/M, unchanged from December, and missing expectations of a rebound to 0.1%. On an unadjusted annual basis, headline PPI final demand rose just 2.0%, the weakest print since mid-2017.

The reason for the big miss, just like in yesterday’s disappointing CPI print, was the sharp drop in energy prices: as a result, the index for final demand goods fell 0.8 percent in January, the biggest drop since it slid 1.2% in September 2015.

As the BLS notes, over three-quarters of the January decline can be traced to prices for final demand energy, which tumbled 3.8%. The index for final demand foods fell 1.7 percent. Conversely, prices for final demand goods less foods and energy climbed 0.3 percent.

Just as concerning is that the annual increase in Finished Goods prices is now rapidly approaching deflation territory.

Some more details: 40% of the decrease in the index for final demand goods is attributable to a 7.3% decline in gasoline prices. It wasn’t just energy: the indexes for fresh and dry vegetables, diesel fuel, fresh fruits and melons, basic organic chemicals, and jet fuel also moved lower. In contrast, prices for construction machinery and equipment rose 1.7 percent. The indexes for processed poultry and residential electric power also increased.

The picture was somewhat better in the PPI ex food and energy category which actually improved from 0.0% in Dec to 0.3% M/M in January, beating expectations of a 0.2% print. Similarly, on an annual basis, final demand ex food, energy rose 2.6%, better than the 2.5% estimate.

There was no such weakness in the index for final demand services which rose 0.3% in January following no change in December. Over 80% of the rise can be traced to margins for final demand trade services, which increased 0.8%. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services climbed 0.5 percent. The index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing was unchanged.

And some more details on the services print:

Half of the advance in prices for final demand services is attributable to margins for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing, which rose 6.3 percent. The indexes for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; machinery, equipment, parts, and supplies wholesaling; chemicals and allied products wholesaling; hospital inpatient care; and transportation of passengers (partial) also moved higher. Conversely, prices for portfolio management fell 5.2 percent. The indexes for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing and for physician care also decreased.

And so, between the disastrous retail sales number, yesterday’s disappointing CPI print and today’s shaky wholesale producer report, it is safe to say the Fed is done hiking for a long, long time.

end

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

The fun begins:  Bill Barr is now confirmed as the new attorney general.  Expect fireworks almost immediately

(Carney/the Hill)

Senate votes to confirm Trump pick William Barr as new attorney general

The Senate voted Thursday to approve William Barr as attorney general, giving the Justice Department its first confirmed chief since President Trump ousted Jeff Sessions last fall.

More than 50 senators voted for Barr’s nomination, giving him enough support to be confirmed. The vote caps off a relatively low-drama fight over Trump’s second nominee for the post. Barr was largely on a glide path after he cleared the Judiciary Committee and a procedural vote without any missteps that threatened GOP support for his nomination.

Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) appeared to be the only Republican who would vote against Barr on Thursday, while Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), Doug Jones (Ala.) and Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) broke with their party and supported him.

Democrats have 47 seats in the Senate. With Manchin, Jones and Sinema voting earlier in the week to advance Barr’s nomination, Democrats would have needed to flip six Republicans in addition to Paul to sink his nomination.

But Republicans largely rallied behind Barr, who previously served as attorney general under former President George H.W. Bush and is returning to the helm of a department that has been at the center of Trump’s longtime criticism over the federal Russia probe.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), the chairman of the Judiciary Committee, characterized Barr as an “outstanding” pick to lead the agency, which has been under the leadership of acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker since Sessions was ousted in November.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), the former chairman and current member of the Judiciary panel, added that Barr will be “a straight shooter and an individual who is willing to engage in productive discussion with Congress.”

Democrats have raised concerns for weeks over Barr’s views on executive power and special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into the 2016 election. As attorney general, Barr is set to take over oversight of the investigation, which is also reportedly examining whether Trump sought to obstruct justice by interfering in the probe.

Trump’s fight with former top law enforcement officials was brought back into the forefront on Thursday after former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe revealed that he opened a probe into whether Trump obstructed justice when he fired FBI Director James Comey in May 2017.

McCabe also said that top Justice Department officials were so concerned about Trump’s decision to fire Comey that they discussed an effort to remove him from office by invoking the 25th Amendment. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who has been overseeing the special counsel’s Russia probe since 2017, has denied the 25th Amendment talk.

Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said before the vote on Barr on Thursday that the circumstances around Mueller’s probe make the threshold for supporting an attorney general nominee higher than normal.

“The next attorney general must be a public servant in the truest sense, with the integrity, the force of will, and the independence to navigate the Justice Department – and maybe our democracy – through treacherous waters. Mr. Barr’s attitude: leave it to me. That is not good enough,” Schumer said.

He added that Barr “does not recognize nor appreciate the moment we’re in.”

Barr circulated an unsolicited memo on Mueller’s probe last year, including with the White House, describing the investigation as based on a “fatally misconceived” theory and as something that would do “lasting damage” to the presidency.

Barr told senators during his confirmation hearing last month that he would let Mueller finish his investigation, that Trump would not be allowed to “correct” Mueller’s final report and that he would make Mueller’s findings public in accordance with the law.

Democratic Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.), who is running for his party’s 2020 nomination, also pointed to Barr’s views on criminal justice reform and racial inequality within the justice system as part of the reason he voted against the nomination.

“We need an attorney general that grasps the urgency of the moment, who is aware of the impact of the Department of Justice on communities across this country,” Booker said, “and who is willing and prepared to protect our most fundamental rights.”

Paul, the only Republican to vote “no,” said he had concerns about Barr’s views on privacy. Paul has frequently sparred with GOP leadership on surveillance and foreign policy issues. He voted against CIA Director Gina Haspel last year and threatened to vote against Mike Pompeo’s secretary of State nomination before doing a last-minute reversal.

“I have too many concerns about the record and views of this nominee. Bill Barr was a leading proponent of warrantless surveillance, and his overall record on the Fourth Amendment is troubling to me. I remain concerned that Bill Barr does not agree with our bipartisan efforts to reform our criminal justice system,” Paul said after an initial vote earlier this week.

He added that he believed Barr also has a “troubling record on the Second Amendment.”

Barr served as attorney general from 1991 to 1993 under Bush. He’s also spent more than a decade in corporate roles before joining the law firm Kirkland & Ellis LLP.

He’ll succeed Whitaker in the top Justice Department spot. Whitaker, who was previously Sessions’s chief of staff, has been filling the role in an acting capacity. Whitaker’s views on Mueller have earned him criticism from Congress, including his suggestion that Mueller would be crossing a “red line” by investigating Trump’s finances.

end

Trump is not going to like this:  the house votes to end USA military support for the Saudi war with Yemen

(courtesy zerohedge)

In Defiance Of Trump, House Votes To End US Military Support For Saudi War In Yemen

In a direct rebuke of Trump’s foreign policy amid broader pushback over his defense of Saudi Arabia, the House on Wednesday passed a bill in a 248-177 vote that largely fell along party lines, which requires President Trump to withdraw U.S. military support from the Saudi Arabia-led coalition. The House sent the war powers resolution to the Senate, where it is also expected to pass and confront Trump with the possibility of issuing the first veto of his presidency.

“The only patriotic thing, if you care about our troops, if you care about American interests, if you care about the outrage that the Saudis are inflicting on Americans and on the world, then the only patriotic thing to do is to vote for this resolution,” California Democrat Ro Khanna, the resolution’s chief House sponsor, said ahead of the vote.

The resolution would direct the president to withdraw U.S. military forces in or “affecting” Yemen within 30 days unless they are fighting al Qaeda or associated forces, according to The Hill . The vote comes at a time when Congress’ anger at Saudi Arabia over last year’s killing of U.S.-based journalist and Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi is being reignited.

However, confirming what we said earlier, namely that the War Powers Act is a joke, Trump said in December he would veto the Senate resolution if it ever reached his desk, which now appears likely.

In December, the Senate passed a parallel resolution 56-41, but a blocked vote by House Republicans prevented it from ever reaching the floor of the House.It was the first time the Senate had ever used congressional authority handed to them in the War Powers Act of 1973.

* * *

For years, the United States has been providing logistics, intelligence sharing and arms sales to the Saudi-led coalition fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The U.S. military also provided aerial refueling to coalition jets, but the administration suspended that support in November.

As The Hill notes, the Trump administration declined to follow a congressionally mandated deadline Friday to report on whether Saudi leadership, including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was responsible for Khashoggi’s slaying and should be sanctioned.

Previously, the Trump administration levied sanctions on some Saudi officials over the killing, but lawmakers have demanded stronger action. Trump, though, has resisted anything that could affect the U.S.-Saudi alliance.

Last year, searching for a way to punish the Saudis, the Senate passed a resolution similar to the one that passed the House on Wednesday to withdraw U.S. military support in Yemen. The measure did not advanced in the House, which was controlled by the GOP at the time.

But Democrats, upon taking control of the House, fulfilled their pledge to prioritize a vote on the war in Yemen, making it their first major foreign policy vote of the year.

In Wednesday’s votes, the House also approved 252-177 a Republican-offered amendment to the bill meant to ensure the United States can continue intelligence sharing with “any foreign country.”

The House also unanimously approved a Republican-offered amendment saying it is in the U.S. national security interest to combat anti-Semitism, which was offered amid an unrelated row over a tweet from Ilhan Omar that she has since apologized for.

As noted above, the White House has issued a veto threat against the Yemen resolution. The statement of administration policy called the resolution “flawed” because U.S. forces are not directly involved in hostilities in Yemen.

The White House also warned the bill would “harm bilateral relationships” by defining hostilities as including “defense cooperation” such as aerial refueling.

“Our continued cooperation with regional partner nations allows the United States to support diplomatic negotiations to end the conflict, promote humanitarian access, mitigate civilian casualties, enhance efforts to recover United States hostages in Yemen and defeat terrorists who seek to harm the United States,” the statement said.

end

Mac Slavo reports on a record number of Americans are behind on their car payments

(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHTFPlan.com)

Debt Crisis In America: A Record Number Of Americans Are Behind On Car Payments

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Debt has become an issue of concern for those who care about their financial future. But with the government setting the terrible example of drastically spending more than they bring in, many in America are following suit and it is leading to a crisis and a red flag for the economy.

Just on the heels of the United States government’s debt surpassing $22 trillion comes the news that there are now a record number of Americans who are behind on their record high car payments. According to CNBC, more than 7 million Americans are at least 90 days behind on their auto loans, according to the New York Fed. This is a major concern, considering the average car payment in the U.S. is now $523.

“More and more people are buying too much car for what they can afford,” said Ed Mierzwinski, senior director of U.S. PIRG’s federal consumer program. Overall, auto debt accounts for about 9 percent of total U.S. consumer debt, up from 6 percent in late 2011, separate data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City show.

The amount of Americans currently in default of their car loans is higher than in 2010 when many were still reeling from the 2008 Great Recession, a statistic that is once again, showing that the U.S. economy may not be nearly as strong as the media’s talking heads present.

The “number of distressed borrowers suggests that not all Americans have benefited from the strong labor market and warrants continued monitoring and analysis of this sector,” Fed economists say.

Auto debt has soared and with that comes people who cannot pay the bill they signed up for. The dramatic uptick in delinquencies came along with a dramatic $584 billion jump in total auto loan debt. That’s the highest increase in car debt since the New York Fed began keeping track 19 years ago.

Overall, household debt rose by $32 billion, or 0.2 percent, to $13.54 trillion in the fourth quarter. That’s $869 billion higher than the crisis peak of $12.68 trillion and is 21.4 percent above the post-crisis low point in the second quarter of 2013.

Student loan debt edged higher to $1.46 trillion while credit card balances rose to $870 billion, right around their crisis peak. –CNBC

These delinquencies also come as Americans grapple with record levels of consumer debt and student loan debtIn a report issued Wednesday, U.S. PIRG warns that the continuing rise in auto debt is putting many consumers in a financially vulnerable position, which could worsen during an economic downturn. Coupled with consumer and student loan debt, Americans are staring a crisis in the face.

Overall debt carried by Americans also set off red flags as that number ticked up.Americans now owe a record $13.5 trillion and global debt is also a concern. 

end

This is big news:  Lael Brainard becomes the first Fed Governor to state that she wants the ending to balance sheet unwinding.  That should stimulate gold

(courtesy zerohedge)

Brainard Becomes First FOMC Member To Urge Ending Balance Sheet Unwind In 2019

Some time over the past year, Fed governor Lael Brainard shifted from one of the biggest hawks (and Clinton donors) on the FOMC, to a dove, one which according to the latest BNP hawk-dove scale is on par with Chicago Fed’s Charlie Evans.

However, as of this morning, every such FOMC distribution scale may have no choice but to put Brainard left of both Fed uberdoves, Kashkari and Bullard, after she became the first Fed  member to signal she favors ending the process of Fed balance sheet unwind some time in 2019, roughly a year sooner than the buyside and dealer consensus expects the Fed to taper its QT.

“In my view, that balance-sheet normalization process probably should come to an end later this year,” Brainard said in a CNBC on Tuesday.

“We want to have an ample supply of reserves,” Brainard added. “We’ve taken some soundings from the market in terms of what that demand for reserves is, and I’d want to have a substantial buffer on top of that to avoid volatility.”

While being the first to provide “calendar guidance”, Brainard did not present a level for where she believed the overall balance sheet, or bank reserves, should settle. As a reminder, they are currently at roughly $1.5 trillion and expected to shrink to $1 trillion be early/mid 2020.

As CNBC’s Steve Liesman observed, Brainard’s comment “is potentially big news. Brainard said she’d wants the wind down to end later this year. The Cnbc fed survey market avg is Q1 2021. So that’s more than a year earlier, perhaps implying a bigger balance sheet.”

Steve Liesman

@steveliesman

Fed Gov Brainard’s comment exclusively to @CNBC about the balance sheet is potentially big news. Brainard said she’d wants the wind down to end later this year. The Cnbc fed survey market avg is Q1 2021. So that’s more than a year earlier, perhaps implying a bigger balance sheet.

The Fed is currently reducing its bloated balance sheet by a maximum of $50 billion a month, although the actual average monthly number is around $36 billion. After saying the Fed’s balance sheet unwind is on “autopilot” in December, Powell reversed and said he will re-evaluate the Fed’s strategy on quantitative tightening. The FOMC also said it will continue managing short-term interest rates through a system that requires abundant bank reserves, which as Bloomberg notes will force them to halt balance sheet shrinkage before reserves become scarce.

The $64 trillion question, of course, is what level of reserves will be considered scarce by the market. Conveniently, the market has an easy signalling mechanism when overall liquidity becomes too low: it crashes.

end

Mitch McConnell has now stated that Trump will sign the border deal and then at the same time declare a national emergency

(courtesy the HILL)

McConnell: Trump to sign border deal, declare national emergency

President Trump will declare a national emergency to fund his demand to build a border wall, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced on the Senate floor Thursday.
“I had an opportunity to speak with President Trump and he, I would say to all my colleagues, has indicated he’s prepared to sign the bill. He also [will] be issuing a national emergency declaration at the same time. I indicated I’m going to support the national emergency declaration,” McConnell announced shortly after 3 p.m. Thursday.
McConnell, who reportedly advised Trump not to declare a national emergency, said he will support the president’s action.
McConnell said the president will also sign a congressional deal that provides $1.375 billion in funding for border barriers.
DEVELOPING…

Stocks Slide After McConnell Says Trump Will Sign Spending Bill, But Will Declare National Emergency

Update: barely moments after CNN reported that Trump aides are ‘growing concerned” the president may not sign the spending bill, Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell said that Trump will in fact sign the bill, but he added that Trump will also declare an emergency. From Reuters:

 U.S. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said on Thursday that President Donald Trump told him he would sign a bipartisan border security bill and at the same time declare a national emergency to make available additional funds for a wall along the southern border.

And while the news that Trump will sign the bill was initially seen as good news by algos, which sent the S&P to session highs, the realization that Trump would also proceed with an emergency declaration, widely seen as negative, has spooked some traders, and the market is now generally unchanged compared to where it was before the CNN report.

* * *

With the market convinced that not only Trump and Xi will magically pull out some trade deal out of their sleeve, or worst case, kick the can for 2 more months, and certain that Trump will not risk another government shutdown with just 24 hours left until a border funding deal has to be signed, suddenly storm cloud have emerged, with CNN reported that “Trump’s aides now say they are less certain he will sign a bipartisan spending compromise that doesn’t include the money he demanded for a border wall”, a major shift from earlier this week when officials indicated privately that he would, while looking to boost the wall funding through emergency measures.

As Congress prepares to vote on the measure, advisers say Trump has grown increasingly concerned about what’s contained in the 1,100-page legislation that was released late Wednesday evening, and which Trump said he would consider as long as it did not contain any “landmines.”

Meanwhile, as more details about the package have emerged, conservative figures in Trump’s orbit have voiced new displeasure at the bill, includes not just Ann Coulter, but also Fox host Laura Ingraham, who tweeted earlier Thursday that Trump should not sign it. The White House had attempted earlier this week to bolster support among Trump’s media allies.

Laura Ingraham

@IngrahamAngle

This bill must NOT be signed by @realDonaldTrump.

White House officials have been digesting the text since early morning and have briefed the President as they go along. The President tweeted midday he was “reviewing the funding bill with my team.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Reviewing the funding bill with my team at the @WhiteHouse!

News of the potential glitch caused a mini air pocket under the market, although so far traders don’t appear too concerned.

end
Amazon abandons New York as Bezos claims the democrats
(courtesy zerohedge)

AOC Celebrates “Defeat” Of World’s Richest Man’s “Worker Exploitation” As Amazon Abandons NY

Update 3: After more than two hours of radio silence, Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who swooped in to take credit for the deal after it was announced late last year, has issued a statement on Amazon’s decision…and as one might have expected, he didn’t hesitate to take a few shots at the Democrats on his left flank whom Amazon has blamed for sabotaging the deal.

Offering a counter-narrative to AOC, Cuomo blamed Democrats in the state senate for sabotaging a deal that “poll after poll” showed was “overwhelmingly supported” by New Yorkers. These lawmakers “put their own narrow political interests above their community” and lost what would have been a great economic boon “not just for New York City, but for the entire region.” They also squandered an opportunity to “diversify our economy away from real estate and Wall Street.”

“Amazon chose to come to New York because we are the capital of the world and the best place to do business. We competed in and won the most hotly contested national economic development competition in the United States, resulting in at least 25,000-40,000 good paying jobs for our state and nearly $30 billion dollars in new revenue to fund transit improvements, new housing, schools and countless other quality of life improvements. Bringing Amazon to New York diversified our economy away from real estate and Wall Street, further cementing our status as an emerging center for tech and was an extraordinary economic win not just for Queens and New York City, but for the entire region, from Long Island to Albany’s nanotech center.”

“However, a small group politicians put their own narrow political interests above their community – which poll after poll showed overwhelmingly supported bringing Amazon to Long Island City – the state’s economic future and the best interests of the people of this state. The New York State Senate has done tremendous damage. They should be held accountable for this lost economic opportunity.”

“The fundamentals of New York’s business climate and community that attracted amazon to be here – our talent pool, world-class education system, commitment to diversity and progressivism – remain and we won’t be deterred as we continue to attract world class business to communities across New York State.”

Over the past four years, one of the dominant scandals in New York State politics has been Cuomo’s feud with De Blasio. But now that the two men have joined forces on Amazon, only to see their work wasted by insurgent “Democratic socialists” and other local progressives, will Cuomo shift the focus of his political vindictiveness that he’s famous for on AOC and sympathizers in the state senate?

* * *

Update 2: Finally, the woman who led the charge against Amazon and its move to Queens has chimed in to declare Amazon’s decision a triumph for all New Yorkers and every committed comrade engaged in the eternal class struggle against our corporate overlords.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

@AOC

Anything is possible: today was the day a group of dedicated, everyday New Yorkers & their neighbors defeated Amazon’s corporate greed, its worker exploitation, and the power of the richest man in the world.

J. David Goodman

@jdavidgoodman

AMAZON CANCELS PLAN TO COME TO NEW YORK

“After much thought and deliberation, we’ve decided not to move forward with our plans to build a headquarters for Amazon in Long Island City, Queens” – Amazon spokeswoman Jodi Seth

She added that if New York had $3 billion to give away to Amazon as a part of this deal, it should be able to find the money to pay teachers and fix the subway.

But while AOC’s grand plan to take the Amazon development money and spend it on the subway is about as fantastical as Trump’s claim that Mexico is going to pay for the wall (because there won’t be any tax revenue, there won’t be any money – maybe somebody should explain that to her), at some point, her constituents will probably figure out that they’ve lost a lot and gained…nothing.

Quoth the Raven@QTRResearch

Ocasio-Cortez just cost NYC 25,000 plus jobs and likely billions of dollars in economic development and ancillary small business revenue

Great start for her

Let the irony sink it: AOC wants to raise taxes on the wealthy to fund her utopian socialist agenda, but is also against wealthy people generating taxable income.

Once her constituents figure it out, they might realize that they would have been better off if AOC had stayed tending bar.

AOC

* * *

Update: Comments on Amazon’s decision to pull out of New York are beginning to pour in. The first company to comment was Plaxall, a plastics company that owns the site that Amazon had targeted for developments.

Plaxall Inc., the plastics company that owns the private development sites in Long Island City that Amazon.com Inc. had targeted for its new campus, is “extremely disappointed” with the technology company’s decision to pull out of New York.

“We’re extremely disappointed by this decision,” Managing Directors Paula Kirby, Tony Pfohl and Matthew Quigley said in an emailed statement. “Since our grandfather opened Plaxall’s doors on the waterfront seven decades ago, our family has believed in the overwhelming promise of Anable Basin and Long Island City as centers of productivity and innovation. We continue to believe that today.”

Meanwhile, Queens State Senator Michael Giannaris, the lawmaker who led the movement to defeat the Amazon deal, accused Amazon of acting like a “petulant child.”

State Sen. Michael Gianaris, a vocal critic who was chosen for a state board with the power to veto the deal, said the decision revealed Amazon’s unwillingness to work with the Queens community it had wanted to join.

“Like a petulant child, Amazon insists on getting its way or takes its ball and leaves,” said Mr. Gianaris, a Democrat, whose district includes Long Island City. “The only thing that happened here is that a community that was going to be profoundly affected by their presence started asking questions.”

And finally, Mayor de Blasio has chimed in with his response, effectively accusing Amazon of spitting in New York’s face after the city gave the company “the opportunity to be a good neighbor.” He added that if Amazon can’t appreciate what New York City is worth, “its competitors will.”

Mayor Bill de Blasio

@NYCMayor

We have the best talent in the world and every day we are growing a stronger and fairer economy for everyone. If Amazon can’t recognize what that’s worth, its competitors will.

Mayor Bill de Blasio

@NYCMayor

You have to be tough to make it in New York City. We gave Amazon the opportunity to be a good neighbor and do business in the greatest city in the world. Instead of working with the community, Amazon threw away that opportunity.

* * *

As it turns out, those reports about Amazon reconsidering its plan to build one of its “HQ2s” in the Queens neighborhood of Long Island City weren’t just trial balloons intended as a warning to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to get his people in line.

Bezos

Because in a Thursday announcement that will undoubtedly be heralded as a major victory by “Democratic Socialists” like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the e-commerce giant announced that it would scrap its plans to move to New York City, much to the chagrin of Cuomo and de Blasio, who signed off on a $3 billion package of “performance based” state, city and public-private incentives offered to Amazon.

Amazon shares have rallied in the aftermath of the announcement.

AMZN

But the ramifications for New York State politics will be far more profound.

Amazon didn’t mince words in its statement, placing the blame for its decision to deprive the state of what Cuomo’s office once described as one of the biggest economic boons in recent decades squarely on the shoulders of progressive New York lawmakers who objected to the deal.

Harry Siegel

@harrysiegel

Marking Amazon exit as the moment when @AOC‘s potent rhetoric first translated into policy

Specifically, lawmakers like AOC and confederates in the New York State legislature opposed the massive tax incentive package offered to Amazon (which came out to more than $40,000 in kickbacks for every job the company had promised to create) and the potential for the new campus to shift the gentrification process into overdrive (the main building would have been situated just blocks away from the Queensbridge Housing Project, America’s largest public housing project.

After much thought and deliberation, we’ve decided not to move forward with our plans to build a headquarters for Amazon in Long Island City, Queens. For Amazon, the commitment to build a new headquarters requires positive, collaborative relationships with state and local elected officials who will be supportive over the long-term. While polls show that 70% of New Yorkers support our plans and investment, a number of state and local politicians have made it clear that they oppose our presence and will not work with us to build the type of relationships that are required to go forward with the project we and many others envisioned in Long Island City.We are disappointed to have reached this conclusion — we love New York, its incomparable dynamism, people, and culture — and particularly the community of Long Island City, where we have gotten to know so many optimistic, forward-leaning community leaders, small business owners, and residents. There are currently over 5,000 Amazon employees in Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Staten Island, and we plan to continue growing these teams.

We are deeply grateful to Governor Cuomo, Mayor de Blasio, and their staffs, who so enthusiastically and graciously invited us to build in New York City and supported us during the process. Governor Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio have worked tirelessly on behalf of New Yorkers to encourage local investment and job creation, and we can’t speak positively enough about all their efforts. The steadfast commitment and dedication that these leaders have demonstrated to the communities they represent inspired us from the very beginning and is one of the big reasons our decision was so difficult.

We do not intend to re-open the HQ2 search at this time. We will proceed as planned in Northern Virginia and Nashville, and we will continue to hire and grow across our 17 corporate offices and tech hubs in the U.S. and Canada.

Thank you again to Governor Cuomo, Mayor de Blasio, and the many other community leaders and residents who welcomed our plans and supported us along the way. We hope to have future chances to collaborate as we continue to build our presence in New York over time.

The decision to pull out of NYC comes after New York State lawmakers nominated one of the deal’s fiercest opponents to a state board that would grant him the power to unilaterally kill the state component of the incentive package. NYC progressives and “Democratic socialists” like AOC can claim a major victory over their corporate adversaries. Queens real-estate brokers on the other hand are reacting with a mix of “shock, anger and disbelief” as condo sales soared in the wake of the Amazon deal…

Embedded video

zerohedge@zerohedge

Every Queens real estate broker right now

…As anyone and everyone who could sought to get in on the real estate buying frenzy, as speculators snapped up condos in the area.

Barbarian Capital@BarbarianCap

Hello, is this “Nelly”, the real estate broker…?

2

However, New Yorkers who opposed the Amazon deal will probably be disappointed to find that driving away the e-commerce giant won’t help fix the subway.

The_Real_Fly@The_Real_Fly

ENJOY YOUR TRAIN RIDE FUCKED FACES

The prospect of luring Amazon to NYC was an all-consuming project for the Democrats who run the state. Cuomo and de Blasio set aside their fierce rivalry to work together to court Amazon, we wonder who will be the first to point the finger at their rival as what we imagine will become one of the most epic blame games in the history of New York politics.

Because it looks like Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has taken a break from snapping dick pics to send Cuomo and de Blasio a giant middle finger.

SWAMP STORIES

Judge Berman throws out the plea deal with Manafort so he will not get any credit for helping the prosecution.He will spend the rest of his days in prison unless Trump gives him a pardon.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Judge Tosses Manafort Plea Deal After Ruling He Lied

A D.C. federal judge ruled Wednesday that Paul Manafort lied in three of five instances cited by special counsel Robert Mueller’s office, invalidating his plea agreement with federal prosecutors, reports the Wall Street Journal.

US District Judge Amy Berman Jackson’s ruling voids the government’s obligation to offer him lenience in exchange for his cooperation in the Russia probe.

In particular, the judge ruled that Mr. Manafort lied about his communications with Konstantin Kilimnik, as well as payments to a law firm and another unspecified matter. The Federal Bureau of Investigation has assessed that Mr. Kilimnik, a Russian political operative who worked in Ukraine with Mr. Manafort and was also indicted by Mr. Mueller, has ties to Russian intelligence. Mr. Kilimnik remains at large. –Wall Street Journal

As a result of the ruling, Manafort won’t receive any credit for his cooperation with prosecutors – and may serve out the rest of his natural life in jail on charges of tax evasion and unregistered lobbying.

Manafort was convicted last year in a similar Virginia trial, and pleaded guilty in the Washington case in the now-voided plea agreement designed to avoid another trial.

That said, Berman Jackson also ruled that federal prosecutors failed to prove that Manafort lied about Mr. Kilimnik’s role in any potential conspiracy to obstruct justice, reports the Journal, and ruled that the government did not lie about his contacts with the Trump administration.

Prosecutors had contended that Mr. Manafort had repeatedly told “multiple discernible lies” just weeks after he pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate in the Mueller investigation.

In a closed-door hearing last week, Judge Berman Jackson had questions for prosecutors over their allegations. –Wall Street Journal

“I’m not sure that is something that a prosecutor would prosecute as a criminal false statement necessarily,” said Judge Berman Jackson, according to transcripts, apparently in reference to Kilimnik. Mueller prosecutor Andrew Weissmann told Berman Jackson that the issue went to the core of the special counsel’s Russia probe.

Two months after Manafort’s September plea agreement, prosecutors accused him of breaching it by lying several times over the course of his 12 or so sessions with investigators in front of the grand jury.

Manafort’s attorneys denied that he intentionally lied to prosecutors – instead blaming his alleged misstatements on a poor memory and a lack of access to relevant documents and evidence, writes the Journal.

Manafort’s case was related to his unregistered political consulting work for Ukraine’s then-ruling party which predated his work with the Trump campaign.

He is scheduled to be sentenced in Washington on March 13, while the former Trump campaign manager is awaiting a sentencing date in Virginia where the judge postponed the hearing to see how the D.C. case was resolved.

END
Absolute garbage:  McCabe tells CBS in an interview of 60 minutes that he rushed to open the Russia probe for fear of being fired.  He opened the probe because of conflicts with his wife receiving 700,000 dollars in her bid for a senate seat.
(courtesy zerohedge)

McCabe Tells CBS That He Rushed To Open Russia Probe For Fear Of Being Fired

In his first interview about the Russia probe since he was summarily fired by President Trump just 26 hours before he was set to retire and collect his pension, and while the possibility of criminal charges over his attempts to cover up his leaks to the press, former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe sat for an interview with CBS about the early days of the Russia probe.

McCabe

In an excerpt of the full interview, which is set to air on Sunday, McCabe described how he quickly moved to start the Russia probe a day after meeting with Trump in May 2017 in the days after James Comey’s firing, over fears that he would soon be fired. After authorizing the investigation into Trump’s Russia ties, McCabe sought to ensure that the investigation – which was eventually rolled into the probe eventually taken over by Special Counsel Robert Mueller – would be on “solid ground” even if he was booted from the FBI.

“I was very concerned that I was able to put the Russia case on absolutely solid ground in an indelible fashion that were I removed quickly or reassigned or fired that the case could not be closed or vanish in the night without a trace,” McCabe told CBS.

The interview marked the first time McCabe has ever opened up about his thought process when he launched the probe. In his recounting of his conversation with President Trump, McCabe said he felt intimidated by the president.

“I was speaking to the man who had just run for the presidency and won the election for the presidency and who might have done so with the aid of the government of Russia, our most formidable adversary on the world stage,” McCabe said in an excerpt aired on CBS on Thursday. “And that was something that troubled me greatly.”

He compared Trump’s request that McCabe allow him to visit the FBI – a visit that McCabe suggest would have been well outside the bounds of decorum – to tactics used by Russian mobsters that McCabe had once prosecuted.

“In this moment, I felt the way I’d felt in 1998, in a case involving the Russian Mafia, when I sent a man I’ll call Big Felix in to meet with a Mafia boss named Dimitri Gufield,” McCabe wrote. “The same kind of thing was happening here, in the Oval Office. Dimitri had wanted Felix to endorse his protection scheme. This is a dangerous business, and it’s a bad neighborhood, and you know, if you want, I can protect you from that. If you want my protection. I can protect you. Do you want my protection? The president and his men were trying to work me the way a criminal brigade would operate.”

Of course, nobody in the mainstream press has pointed out that the timing of McCabe’s decision to launch the probe would suggest that he was looking for leverage to stop him from being fired along with Comey…though, thanks to his decision to lie to the DOJ’s inspector general, that problem swiftly took care of itself.

He also admitted that he launched the investigation without any actual evidence…just partisan hackery.

Dividend Master@DividendMaster

so in other words the head of the @FBI is confessing publicly he assumed Trump was guilty without any evidence and started an investigation for no reason but partisan hackery …… and saw nothing Hillary did as suspicious

See Dividend Master’s other Tweets

In a discussion about the interview, McCabe’s interviewer Scott Pelley said McCabe affirmed that there had been discussions about invoking the 25th amendment to remove Trump – something that was the subject of a series of leaks last year about a plot allegedly concocted by Rod Rosenstein (Rosenstein, for what its worth, denied McCabe’s assertion that the Deputy Attorney General raised the issue of Trump Administration officials wearing a wire during their talks with the president).

Embedded video

Norah O’Donnell🇺🇸

@NorahODonnell

.@ScottPelley on what McCabe told @60Minutes: “There were meetings at the Justice Department at which it was discussed whether the vice president and a majority of the cabinet could be brought together to remove the president of the United States under the 25th Amendment.”

end
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

Senate panel passes rule change to speed up presidential nominations

Hundreds of nominations to federal offices, as well as 121 District Court vacancies, have been slowed by party differences in the Senate. With the change, the committee aims to reduce debate time on presidential court and lower-level executive nominees…

    Senators have up to 30 hours of debate over nominations, after demonstrating they have a simple majority required to defeat a filibuster. The resolution Wednesday cut the debate time to two hours per nominee. Cabinet-level positions would be exempted

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/02/13/Senate-panel-passes-rule-change-to-speed-up-presidential-nominations/9151550082036/

 

[Rep.] Devin Nunes: ‘Many’ People Will Be Criminally Referred to DOJ After William Barr Confirmed   https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/02/13/devin-nunes-many-people-will-be-criminally-referred-to-doj-after-william-barr-confirmed/

 

@AP: State media reports suicide bomb targeting Revolutionary Guard personnelkills at least 20, wounds 20 in southeast Iran.  [It’s not hard to guess who wants to foment trouble in Iran.]

 

Michael Bloomberg’s $500 million anti-Trump moonshot- The sum represents a floor, not a ceiling, on the billionaire’s potential spending to defeat the president in 2020…

[No surprise given the daily anti-DJT articles that pour out of BBG]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/13/michael-bloomberg-trump-2020-1167159?platform=hootsuite

 

Court Documents Reveal Special Counsel’s Office Illegally Leaked Stone Indictment to CNN

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/02/breaking-court-documents-reveal-special-counsels-office-illegally-leaked-stone-indictment-to-cnn/

 

@Barnes_Law: Evidence shows Mueller team emailed court-sealed documents to media. That is an illegal act. Will judges cover for Mueller, again?

 

Greta Van Susteren @greta: When Mueller probe ends, each cable news orgs should hire outside journalism investigator on themselves and see how did on all its Mueller reporting – did anchors report facts or make wild statements(for/against) that misled the American people? And that analysis should be released

 

@RepMattGaetz: Democrats in the Judiciary Committee just voted against notifying ICE when an illegal alien fails a background check to buy a gun. They hate ICE so much that they’d keep ICE in the dark when illegals try to get guns!

 

Why the MSM is detested: A WaPo headline that is extremely misleading

 

President Trump installed a room-sized golf simulator at White House

Trump’s system cost about $50,000… That system replaced an older, less sophisticated simulator that had been installed under President Barack Obama… Trump had paid for the new system and the installation personally…   https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/president-trump-installed-a-room-sized-golf-simulator-at-white-house/2019/02/13/ed3f6d5c-2e45-11e9-813a-0ab2f17e305b_story.html

 

The first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him.” Niccolò Machiavelli

 

-END-

I WILL SEE YOU FRIDAY NIGHT
HARVEY
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One comment

  1. Jerimiah Jones · · Reply

    Hello Harvey, I notice that you publish the open interest each day for gold, silver, are you able, or might you also be willing to add the commercial traders “days to cover” the short interest on the COMEX on days when the COT comes out. I am a bit of a novice but as I understand it silver is the most shorted commodity and the days to cover may well rank into many months. I think gold ranks in the top 5. It is also my understanding that only a few banks, perhaps 4 have an extremely concentrated short position in all the metals so some approximation of data may be a benefit is a short squeeze is at hand any time soon, or doomsday for the big bullion banks. Thanks for the great work! .

    Like

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