FEB 15/GOLD RISES BY 8 DOLLARS TO $1318.90/SILVER UP 19 CENTS TO $15.76//MASSIVE 3 TONNES OF COMEX GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AS OUR BANKERS ARE SCRAMBLING FOR GOLD/TRUMP INITIATES EMERGENCY MEASURES FOR WALL FUNDING AS CHAOS ESCALATES/CHINA INITIATES A MASSIVE STIMULUS AS ITS ECONOMY FALTERS BADLY/INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INSIDE USA FALTERS/EU SET TO INITIATE ITS QE/FOREIGNERS DUMP A MASSIVE $77 BILLION OF TREASURIES/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1318.90 UP $8.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.76 UP 19 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1321.50

 

silver: $15.79

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

FEBRUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 928 NOTICE(S) FOR 92800 OZ (2.886 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  10,161 NOTICES FOR 1016100 OZ  (31.604 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEBRUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 565 for 2,825,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3611:UP $21

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3611 down $12.

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 796/928

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,309.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/14/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 02/19/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 19
661 C JP MORGAN 689
661 H JP MORGAN 127
685 C RJ OBRIEN 4
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 88
880 H CITIGROUP 927
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 928 928
MONTH TO DATE: 10,161

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1891 CONTRACTS FROM 221,610 DOWN TO 219,719 WITH YESTERDAY’S 11 CENT LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

2316 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL, FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2316 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2316 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2316 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.58 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 11 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

AND NOW 2.830 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 15,839 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 15,839 CONTRACTS) OR 79.195 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1439 CONTRACTS OR 7.1995 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB:  79.195 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 11.30% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           287.72    MILLION OZ. (CORRECTED)

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1891 WITH THE 11 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2316 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED: 425 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2316 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1891 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 11 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.57 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.095 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 157% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND NOW FEB 2019:  2.830 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A  TINY SIZED 353 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 479,544 WITH THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.10//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG  SIZED 7780 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 7783 CONTRACTS, DECEMBER: 350 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 479,544. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7780 CONTRACTS: 353 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8133 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 7780 CONTRACTS OR 778,000 OZ = 24.19 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $1.10.

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7361 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY : 60,225 CONTRACTS OR 6,022,500 OZ  OR 187.32 TONNES (11 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5,475 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE GOOD SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 187.32 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 187.32/2550 x 100% TONNES = 7.34% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     707.46  TONNES  (CORRECTED)

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A  TINY SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 353 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($1.10) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8133 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8133 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 8581 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8133 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 353 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 24.19 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS OF $1.10 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had:  928 notice(s) filed upon for 92800 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY

 

THE CROOKS CONTINUE WITH THEIR ATTACK ON THE GLD

 

THEY WITHDREW ANOTHER:  2.04 TONNES OF GOLD AND THAT WILL BE USED TO RAID GOLD/

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   796.85 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 796.85 tonnes.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

STRANGE!!  A GOOD DEPOSIT OF 423,000 OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1891 CONTRACTS from 221,610 DOWN TO 219,719  AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

2316 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MAY., FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2316 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1891 CONTRACTS TO THE 2316 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A TINY GAIN  OF 425  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2.125 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..AND NOW 2.830 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY.

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 11 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 2316 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.32 POINTS OR 1.37% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 531.21 POINTS OR 1.87%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 239.08 POINTS OR 1.13%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.15%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7709 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 54.70 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.94 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7709 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7792: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

i) CHINA/USA

After both Xi and Mnuchin sounded upbeat on their negotiations, Xi hinted that China will not budge on its economic reforms which is exactly what we promised you.  He will offer more purchases of USA goods but will not budget on the more important structural reforms like stealing USA technology

 

( zerohedge)

ii) this is what caused the Dow to skyrocket 500 points from its lows: China unleashes a massive credit injection.  This is good for gold. China unleashed a huge 3.23 trillion yuan (482 billion dollars worth of loans). The Total Social Financing (TSF) rose to a massive 4.64 trillion yuan or 685 billion dollars.  The new TSF loans now total 30 billion USA dollars.  This is a massive debt and they will implode

 

( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK/CHINA

Just after UK Defense Secretary Williamson threatened to send a warship to the Pacific and namely into the South China Seas, China dramatically canceled UK trade talks

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)SPAIN

Sanchez calls for an election on April 28 after losing his budget battle. Should be an interesting few months

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)EUOh OH!! this is good!!! Coeure a moderate in the ECB cabinet hints that things are not going too well in EU land and he hints at another TLTRO (massive QE).  This should stimulate gold to no end!!’

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran/SYRIA/USA

Our resident expert on Middle East affair , Tom Luongo discusses that it is Putin who is pushing for peace.  He will holding back Erdogan from attacking the Kurds.  He is angry at Erdogan for not finishing off ISIS in Idlib province.

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)VENEZUELA/USA

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)To prevent high frequency trading which accounts for some of the rigging in the precious metals, Ice is going to use speed bumps.  The problem is that this is such a tiny fraction of the rigging.

( Baker/Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)Mainstream media finally catching on as they state their favourability to gold/

( the Economist/London/GATA)

iii)The world is catching on the phony government stats coming out.  The latest was on inflation…

( Li/CNBC/GATA)

iv)Amazing:  Sibanye announces that it may have to cut 6,000 mining jobs in South Africa due to losses.  Successive governments in South Africa could not care less about gold market suppression

(Sanderson/London’s Financial Times/GATA)

v)China has been highlighting gold production for quite some time..i.e. going after the rich areas and leaving the poor zones out of the picture.  It has now hurt them as their gold production is now down to 401 tonnes. Last yr:  426 tonnes and the year before 476 tonnes.  Russia is smart and they are mining correctly and their production is now up to 314 tonnes from sub 300. You will note in this commentary the huge drop in gold production by the South Africans.  There is a good saying in the mining field:  gold mines are only made not found.  Mining is a tricky business…
(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

ii)Market data/

a)With China imploding we expect to see USA import and export prices tumble and lo and behold we received just that as China exports its deflation big time.  This is very worrisome for manufacturers as they try and compete with China.

( zerohedge)

b)Another biggy!! USA industrial production plunges in January with the key manufacturing sector contracts badly. Good reason for the stock market to rise.. (it was caused by the massive stimulus from China)

(courtesy zerohedge)

c)Soft data U. of Michigan sentiment rebounds but inflation forecasts hit a record low.  This data comes out right after government goes back to work

( zerohedge)

d)TIC
This is really bad for the dollar (and good for gold):  Foreigners dumped a massive 77 billion dollars worth of treasuries in December
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Trump to unveil his 8 billion dollar border wall funding today;

( zerohedge)

b)Socialized healthcare exposes reality:  30,000 dead due to record long hospital waiting times. It takes months to have corrective surgery and I am a prime example of it in Canada,.

( Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)A New Jersey pension fund might ditch a hedge fund, Chatham Asset Management, that owns 80% of the National Enquirer which is in deep financial straits.

( zerohedge)

b)The brother of Sanchez denies leaking pictures to the Enquirer
( zerohedge)

 

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN FELL BY A TINY SIZED 353 CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 479,544 WITH THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.10) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR THREE YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES., THE REASON FOR THE COLLAPSE IN OPEN INTEREST IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8133 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 7783, FOR DECEMBER: 350 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8133 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  7780 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8133 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A TINY SIZED 353 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:7780 contracts OR 778,000  OZ OR 24.19 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of FEBRUARY and here the open interest stands at 1420 contracts, and thus undergoing a MONSTROUS AND UNHEARD OF GAIN of 837 contracts.  We had 8 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we GAINED AN UNBELIEVABLE 845 contracts or 84,500 additional oz (ADDITIONAL 2.62 TONNES) will stand for delivery in this very active delivery month of February as they refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a sizable fiat bonus. The comex is out of gold!@! as the crooks scrounge around the comex looking for metal trying to put out fires elsewhere.

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after February is  March and here we gained 19 contracts to stand at 1685.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI fell by 2153 contracts down to 338,926 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 928 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 92,800 OZ. (2.886 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1891  CONTRACTS FROM 221,610 DOWN TO 219,719(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED DESPITE A 11 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS 1 CONTRACT, HAVING LOST 28 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 28 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

.

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 6492 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 107,410 CONTRACTS. AFTER MARCH, APRIL ADVANCES TO 85 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 13 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ADVANCED BY 4422 CONTRACTS UP TO 72,684 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 425 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1843 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2316 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  425 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 11 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  109,560 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  238,659  contracts

comex gold volumes are getting extremely low as players just do not want to play in this casino.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

FEB 15 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
928 notice(s)
 92800 OZ
(2.886 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
492 contracts
(49200 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,161 notices
1,016,100 OZ
31.604 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i

 

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  nil oz

we had 0  adjustments…

FOR THE FEB 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 928 contract(s) of which 127 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 689 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEBRUARY/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,161) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (1420 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (928 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,065,300 OZ OR 33.13 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of FEBRUARY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (10161 x 100 oz)  + {1420)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (928 x 100 oz )which equals 1,065,300 oz standing OR 33.13 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY.

WE GAINED A MASSIVE 845 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 84500 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. THE COMEX MUST BE VOID AS OUR BANKERS ARE SCOURING THE PLANET LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD./ THIS IS THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW THAT WE HAVE WITNESSED MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD. I CANNOT RECALL AT ANY TIME WITNESSING SUCH A MASSIVE GAIN IN GOLD OZ STANDING THIS LATE IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.13 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 33.13 TONNES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY

OF WHICH 31.604 TONNES OF GOLD HAVE ALREADY BEEN SERVED UPON SO FAR THIS MONTH.

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  743,812.931 oz or   23.13 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,221,512.995 oz 255.72 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON FEBRUARY 2019 TO THE  FEBRUARY 2018 COMEX GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FEB 1.2018: 20.07 TONNES OF GOLD STOOD FOR DELIVERY, BUT BY THE END OF MONTH ONLY 8.55 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 28 MONTHS 99 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

FEB INITIAL standings/SILVER

FEB 15 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,233,279.246 oz
int. Delaware
Delaware
JPMorgan

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
915.80
oz
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 565 contracts

(2,825,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.26 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.61% of all official comex silver. (150.26 million/296 million)

 

i) Into Delaware:  915.800 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 915.800   oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of  Int Delaware: 38,194.966  oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 2,007.200 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan:  1,193,077.120 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,233,279.246    oz

 

we had 0 adjustment..

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.807 million

total dealer + customer silver:  296.029 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the FEBRUARY 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR  NIL  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 565 x 5,000 oz = 2,825,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (1) and the number of notices served upon today (0x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEBRUARY/2019 contract month: 565(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB( 1) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 2,830,000 oz of silver standing for the FEBRUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS  NEGATING A FIAT BONUS

 

FOR COMPARISON SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH  FEB 2018 VS FEB 2019

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FEB 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 670,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  AT THE MONTH’S CONCLUSION WE HAD 2.035 MILLION OZ STAND AS WE WITNESSED QUEUE JUMPING ON A REGULAR BASIS AT THE SILVER COMEX.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  31,313 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 94,004 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 94,004 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 470 million OZ  67.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.42% (FEB 15/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -.71% to NAV (FEB 15 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.42%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.38/TRADING 12.87/DISCOUNT 3.83

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

FEB 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: WE HAD ANOTHER PAPER RAID (WITHDRAWAL) OF 2.04 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES/

FEB 13:/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER RAID BY OUR CROOKED BANKERS AS THEY WITHDREW ANOTHER 2.23 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.89 TONNES

FEB 12: WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO WHACK OUR PRECIOUS METAL TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.00/THE CROOKS WITHDREW ANOTHER HUGE 6.59 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.29 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP 35 CENTS/ANOTHER PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 811.82 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 813.29 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i)A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.37 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM THE GLD AND THEN ii) a A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.40 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $.65: A HUGE HUGE MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87..SO FAR IN JANUARY: 28.56 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $6.15/A HUGE ADDITION OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.64 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $17.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

jAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70?: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP 50 CENTS: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD UP A TINY $.85 A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE FRAUDULENT GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

FEB 15/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 796.85 tonnes

*IN LAST 546 TRADING DAYS: 137.20 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 446 TRADING DAYS: A NET 22.75 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: A DEPOSIT OF 423,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ

FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 306.935 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT TH SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999  MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000  OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ.

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 129,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY  RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG DEPOSIT OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 INTO THE SLV INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.597 MILLION OZ.

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.408 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.659 MILLION OZ/

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: A HUGE LOSS OF 938,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.179 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/SLV IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.189 MILLION OZ/

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/NO DOUBT THE MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF PAPER SILVER WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.895 MILLION OZ./INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110 MILLION OZ/

JAN 16/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.158 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.005 MILLION OZ/

JAN 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 469,000 OZ FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.163 MILLION OZ/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

 

 

FEB 15/2019:

 

Inventory 307.358 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.14/ and libor 6 month duration 2.74

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .60

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.51%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.92

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.41

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Invest In Gold As a Hedge In Cashless Society – Ex IMF Rogoff

– Invest in gold as a hedge, in pensions & as a store of value – Rogoff
– Investing in and owning gold as a hedge will become more important as it will have “enormous value” in a cashless society

– Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are not an effective replacement for paper money … but gold’s role is likely to increase as cash is used less and “the trend towards digital currencies” will benefit gold
– “There is an incredible disconnect between the fact that cash is disappearing in legal, tax-compliant transactions but exploding in terms of how much central banks are printing” says Rogoff
– It makes sense for investors, HNW individuals, pension funds and central banks to invest a “percentage of their assets in gold” as a hedge
– “Gold is also likely to increase in value” as central bank and global investment demand increases
– “As a hedge, gold has enormous value…” Rogoff concludes

Watch Our Latest Video Here

 

News and Commentary

Gold ends lower, building on a weekly decline (MarketWatch.com)

Gold rises as weak U.S. economic data drags dollar (Reuters.com)

Trump to sign border bill, declare emergency: McConnell (Bloomberg.com)

Weakest U.S. retail sales since 2009 cast pall over economy (Reuters.com)

Bitcoin trading in crisis-stricken Venezuela has just hit an all-time high (CNBC.com)

South African Gold Output Plunges Most in Six Years in December (Bloomberg.com)

The Case for Gold – The Economist (Gata.org)

Headlines Say There’s No Inflation, But Look at What’s Getting More Expensive (CNBC.com)

Intercontinental Exchange admits metals market vulnerability to rigging (Bloomberg.com)

6,000 miners to lose jobs but South Africa doesn’t care about gold price suppression (FT.com)

The Italians Want To Sell Some Gold: Well Now, There Might Be A Problem With That (SilverDoctors.ocm)

Listen on iTunes,Blubrry & SoundCloud  & watch on YouTube above

Watch our recent videos here

 

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

14 Feb: USD 1,305.65, GBP 1017.49 & EUR 1,158.50 per ounce
13 Feb: USD 1,311.15, GBP 1017.45 & EUR 1,158.79 per ounce
12 Feb: USD 1,311.60, GBP 1021.21 & EUR 1,163.00 per ounce
11 Feb: USD 1,306.40, GBP 1014.81 & EUR 1,157.08 per ounce
08 Feb: USD 1,311.10, GBP 1012.04 & EUR 1,156.65 per ounce
07 Feb: USD 1,310.00, GBP 1009.49 & EUR 1,154.11 per ounce
06 Feb: USD 1,313.35, GBP 1013.51 & EUR 1,152.86 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

14 Feb: USD 15.58, GBP 12.17 & EUR 13.83 per ounce
13 Feb: USD 15.69, GBP 12.13 & EUR 13.85 per ounce
12 Feb: USD 15.81, GBP 12.30 & EUR 14.01 per ounce
11 Feb: USD 15.70, GBP 12.16 & EUR 13.88 per ounce
08 Feb: USD 15.78, GBP 12.18 & EUR 13.92 per ounce
07 Feb: USD 15.71, GBP 12.20 & EUR 13.87 per ounce
06 Feb: USD 15.73, GBP 12.15 & EUR 13.82 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Valentine’s Day Record Spending Due to Gold Love Trade?
– Gold Prices In Pounds and Euros Gain More as Economic Growth Falters in the UK and EU
– Irish Investors Storing Their Gold Bullion In Ireland
– Large Gold Bullion Shipment Moves From London to Dublin Gold Vaults As Brexit Concerns Deepen
– Store Gold Bullion In Safest Ways – Learning from Tragic Venezuela Today
– The Vital Importance of Gold As A Strategic Asset In 2019
– ITALEXIT: Italy’s Debt Crisis Will “Rock EU To Its Foundations” – Banking Crisis and Euro Exit Are Likely
– “Right” Trump and “Left” Ocasio-Cortez Will Join Forces And Debase The Dollar
– 7 Financial Truths In An Uncertain 2019

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
end
GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
To prevent high frequency trading which accounts for some of the rigging in the precious metals, Ice is going to use speed bumps.  The problem is that this is such a tiny fraction of the rigging.
(courtesy Baker/Bloomberg)

Intercontinental Exchange admits metals market vulnerability to rigging

 Section: 

‘Flash Boys’-Style Speed Bump Planned for Futures Markets

By Nick Baker
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s futures market wants to join the battle against the fastest traders.

The Atlanta-based exchange plans a 3-millisecond trading delay, or speed bump, for its gold and silver futures contracts, according to a regulatory filing. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission today asked for public comment on the proposal.

Michael Lewis’s 2014 book, “Flash Boys,” popularized the idea of using speed bumps to curb the light-speed pace of modern financial markets and prevent alleged abuses of so-called high-frequency traders. Lewis’ protagonists, the founders of IEX Group Inc., introduced a delay on their stock exchange in 2016, and a tiny equities market ICE owns, NYSE American, also has one. But this latest move would bring a speed bump to derivatives markets.

The delay would be introduced “initially” for gold and silver, areas where ICE currently does very little business. An ICE spokesman declined to say whether it would later be applied to other markets. ICE is a leader in other products such as oil futures. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/a-flash-boys-style-sp…

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

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end

 

The world is catching on the phony government stats coming out.  The latest was on inflation…

(courtesy Li/CNBC/GATA)

No inflation? What planet do the government statisticians live on?

 Section: 

Headlines Say There’s No Inflation, But Look at What’s Getting More Expensive

By Yun Li
CNBC, New York
Wednesday, February 13, 2019

U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in January on the headline level, but looking under the hood, some of the most basic consumption including rent, food and medical care are all getting more expensive.

“Please stop telling me there is no inflation,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said in a note Wednesday after the consumer price index report. He pointed out that services inflation excluding energy has grown persistently with a 0.2 percent increase month over month and 2.8 percent rise year over year.

… 

The headline figure saw no change in January largely because cheaper gasoline offset the increases in other areas. Gasoline prices fell 5.5 percent last month after dropping 5.8 percent in December.

On the surface, the headline CPI number is showing that inflation is contained. But the core rate of inflation, which doesn’t consider energy and food prices because they fluctuate easily, has risen 0.2 percent for each of the past five months. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/headlines-say-theres-no-inflation-but-lo…

end

Mainstream media finally catching on as they state their favourability to gold/

(courtesy the Economist/London)

Yikes! Times ARE changing — The snots at The Economist pontificate favorably about gold

 Section: 

Catching the Gold Bug

When Trouble Strikes, Where Should You Hide? The Case for Gold

The Grand Central Theory of Markets

The Buttonwood column
The Economist, London
Thursday, February 14, 2019

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/02/16/when-trouble-…

Imagine you have an assignation in New York.

You have not been told where you should meet the other person and she has not been told where to meet you. You have no understanding of where to find her or where she might usually be found. She is as ignorant of you.

You cannot communicate. You must somehow guess how to find each other and make those guesses coincide.

Where should you go? And at what time of day?

… 

A good answer is Grand Central Station at noon. That was the response of the majority asked by Thomas Schelling, a game theorist and Nobel prize winner in economics, in experiments reported “The Strategy of Conflict,” published in 1960. People are often able to act tacitly in concert if they know that others are trying to do the same, said Schelling. Most situations throw up a clue, a “focal point,” around which to co-ordinate, even if it takes imagination as much as logic to find it.

Now imagine the world economy goes into a tailspin. There is panic selling of risky assets. Where should you seek safety? Cash is the most liquid asset; but which kind? The dollar is a natural focal point. Yet America’s fiscal indiscipline and its sizable current-account deficit might give pause. Other currencies have their faults too. There is one other destination you might consider, if only because others are starting to think the same way. And that is gold.

A lot of people respond to this suggestion by backing away gently while claiming an urgent appointment elsewhere. Gold keeps some strange company. Ardent gold bugs seem to know a lot about firearms, the best places with access to fresh water, and the best ways to preserve food. And what, after all, are its merits? It is supposed to be an inflation hedge. Yet there is not much of that to hedge against. Inflation barely threatens the standard rich-world target of 2 percent. And after gaining $100 an ounce recently, gold is hardly cheap by past standards, in inflation-adjusted terms.

Consider the alternatives, though. The euro is flawed. It has no unique sovereign issuer to stand behind it. And the yuan is not a currency you can trade easily. The yen, admittedly, is a good bolthole. Japan’s net foreign assets — what Japan’s residents own abroad minus what they owe to foreigners — are worth $3 trillion, or 60 percent of annual GDP. In a crisis, some of that capital comes home, pushing up the yen. Those seeking safety follow suit. The Swiss franc has similar appeal.

Still, there is a downside. Past form suggests both countries are likely to cap a rise in their currencies by printing more of them. Short-term interest rates have been negative for years in Japan, Switzerland and the euro area, in part to deter currency strength. By contrast gold’s yield — zero — seems almost racy.

And the dollar? As a global currency it has no peers. During the last big crisis, in 2008, the dollar rallied. There had been lots of global borrowing in greenbacks. So when trouble struck, there was a scramble for dollar liquidity. The world still has a large short position on the dollar, in that there has been heavy borrowing in the currency beyond America’s shores. Yet the world is also long dollar assets. America’s listed firms make up the bulk of global stock market indices. Its government-bond market has swollen to 100 percent of GDP. And the dollar still accounts for the bulk of official reserves.

Tellingly, the managers of those rainy-day funds seem a mite concerned that they are crammed into the same spot. The share of dollars in the $10.7 trillion of reserves reported to the IMF has dropped from over 65 percent when Donald Trump was elected president to below 62 percent in the latest figures. This may in part be a response to growing political risks.

The dollar’s central role in global trade and finance allows America to impose financial sanctions to great effect. It has been doing so with greater frequency, so Russia, for instance, has drastically cut the dollar share of its reserves, to 22 percent, while raising the shares of euros and yuan. Russia has been a big buyer of gold, too. In that, it is not alone. Net purchases of gold by central banks rose by 74 percent last year to the highest since 1971, the year the dollar’s peg to the gold price broke.

Now, as then, there are growing concerns that the dollar is a crowded trade. It is as if there are so many people in Grand Central Station that it is impossible to find the person you’re supposed to meet there—or if you do find them, you cannot fight your way out without mishap. It is why gold is starting to appeal again as a spot to converge upon. You would have to mix with some strange people there. But can you really say that you would never visit?

end

Amazing:  Sibanye announces that it may have to cut 6,000 mining jobs in South Africa due to losses.  Successive governments in South Africa could not care less about gold market suppression

(Sanderson/London’s Financial Times/GATA)

6,000 miners to lose jobs but South Africa doesn’t care about gold price suppression

 Section: 

South Africa’s Sibanye Weighs Slashing 6,000 Jobs to Stem Gold Losses

By Henry Sanderson
Financial Times, London
Thursday, February 14, 2019

South African miner Sibanye-Stillwater said it may have to cut nearly 6,000 jobs as part of a restructuring of its gold mines due to ongoing losses.

Sibanye said it would enter into formal consultations with its workforce following “numerous initiatives to contain losses” at certain shafts at its Beatrix and Driefontein gold mining operations.

.The talks come following strikes and a number of deaths at Sibanye’s deep-shaft gold mining operations last year.

The company said it may have to cut roughly 5,870 jobs and 800 contractors depending on the outcome of the formal consultation. Sibanye employs around 61,000 people in South Africa.

“Contemplating potential restructuring of this nature is never taken lightly and we are aware of the possible impact on many of our colleagues,” Neal Froneman, chief executive of Sibanye, said. “Our best attempts to address the ongoing losses at these operations, have, however, been unsuccessful and sustaining these losses may threaten the viability of our other operations.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/5a08bcf0-3052-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8




iii) Other Physical stories
China has been highlighting gold production for quite some time..i.e. going after the rich areas and leaving the poor zones out of the picture.  It has now hurt them as their gold production is now down to 401 tonnes. Last yr:  426 tonnes and the year before 476 tonnes.  Russia is smart and they are mining correctly and their production is now up to 314 tonnes from sub 300. You will note in this commentary the huge drop in gold production by the South Africans.  There is a good saying in the mining field:  gold mines are only made not found.  Mining is a tricky business…
(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS:: Russia closing gap on China as World No.1 gold miner?

Assuming the veracity of the latest figures from official sources in China and Russia the latter is expanding its gold output while the former’s output is contracting. The latest figures are as follows: China’s 2018 gold output, as announced by the China Gold Association, was around 401 tonnes, down from 426 tonnes in 2017 – a fall of almost 6%, while Russia’s 2018 gold output was up nearly 2.5% to 314 tonnes according to the country’s Finance Ministry. If the figures are correct, and the trend continues, Russia could surpass China as the world’s largest gold producer within around 4 years given that China’s output is seen as continuing to fall given ever-increasing environmental strictures, while Russia’s output is continuing to advance.

Russia has already overtaken China in the size of its official gold reserves as reported to the IMF, although we continue to express our doubts about the veracity of the Chinese total (See: China officially adds to gold reserves again)

In 2017, according to the major gold analytical consultancies, Russia was the third largest global gold producer – but vying with Australia for second place. Interestingly the aforementioned consultancies invariably come up with lower annual estimates for Russian gold production than that announced by the Finance Ministry – but they also come up with lower estimates for Australian domestic production than that calculated by Melbourne- based consultancy Surbiton Associates, which should, on past performance, be publishing its latest estimate for Australia’s 2018 gold production in around two to three weeks’ time. Last year Surbiton put Australian output at 301 tonnes and, if anything we would take the Surbiton figure as being perhaps closer to that nation’s true position than the big global consultancies’ estimates given Surbiton’s almost total specialisation in the Australian gold sector.

Whether global gold output will be seen to have fallen, plateaued, or risen marginally in 2018 compared with the prior year still remains open to question. Notably another of the world’s top gold mining countries – South Africa – has ,according to its national statistical body, Statistics South Africa, seen a sharp decline in its 2018 gold output. During the second half of the year at least the country’s gold output saw a double digit percentage fall virtually every month. We suspect that once the final annual figures are tallied, the country which once dominated global gold production will find itself still in place as the world’s seventh largest gold producer but may well see its total output falling by around 20 tonnes to the mid 130 tonne level – a very significant drop.

We shall have to wait and see what the major analytical consultancies make of the global picture when they publish their annual assessments – probably not until end- March/early April. We increasingly suspect that they may show global gold output will have peaked in 2018, given the lack of major new discoveries and a global downturn in gold exploration activity, coupled with declining grades at some existing operations and forced closures of some older marginal mines as they become uneconomic. Perhaps Peak Gold is actually with us at last!

15 Feb 2019

-END-

Gold production plunges to its worst level since 2012

ECONOMY / 15 FEBRUARY 2019, 10:30AM / KABELO KHUMALO

JOHANNESBURG – The ramifications of the nearly four- month-long strike at Sibanye-Stillwater’s gold division by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) were yesterday laid bare with gold production in December plunging to its worst level since October 2012.

Data from Statistics South Africa showed that gold output tanked 31 percent year-on-year in December.

Production in the mining sector as a whole fell 4.8 percent year-on-year in December. Full mining production decreased 1.6 percent.

FNB chief economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya said the plunge in gold production had detracted 4.6percentage points from the headline reading.

“This can likely be ascribed to the Amcu strike at the Sibanye-Stillwater gold operation,” Matinkica- Ngwenya asserted.

“We are concerned about the outlook for 2019, despite the relatively weak 2018 base as rising input costs, low commodity prices, electrical generation and slowing Chinese growth present material downside risks to the mining sector,” he added.

About 15000 Amcu members at Sibanye downed tools in November last year, demanding an R1000 annual wage increase for the next three years.

They have clashed with colleagues from the rival National Union of Mineworkers, which, alongside other unions, signed a deal with Sibanye, and whose members have returned to work.

Professor Francis Petersen of the University of the Free State said that production output from South African gold mines had been declining over the past seven years.

“South Africa’s gold production accounts for only 4 percent of the global gold production and new investment in this sector is highly unlikely in South Africa,” Petersen said.

Other data from StatsSA also showed that iron ore output fell 14.3percent on an annualised basis, while production of other metallic minerals plunged 18.4percent on a yearly basis.

With December’s official activity data now all in, the figures indicate a soft end to 2018.

Retail sales in December also decreased by 1.4percent year-on-year, the worst figure since January 2017, while manufacturing output inched up just 0.1 percent on an annualised basis – its weakest increase since September.

Capital Economics economist John Ashbourne said that the data was more positive when looked at in the quarter- on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualised rate that aligns with official gross domestic product.

“Mining output was actually stronger over the quarter as a whole than it had been in quarter three, while the slowdowns in manufacturing and retail were modest,” said Ashbourne.

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

 

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7709/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7792   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 37.32 POINTS OR 1.37% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 531.21 POINTS OR 1.87%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed  DOWN 239.08 POINTS OR 1.13%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 97.08/Euro FALLS TO 1.1269

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.47/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 54.70 and Brent: 64.94

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP   /OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.10%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.88% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.25%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.78: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.86

3k Gold at $1317.20 silver at:15.67   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 1/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.67

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.47 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0062 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1339 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.10%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.66% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.99%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.2674

Early futures jump on trade deal optimism.  That faded fast on news from the Wall Street Journal that China/USA trade talks are deadlocked

 

 

S&P Futures Reverse Overnight Losses As Trade Talks Optimism Returns

After a lackluster start to global markets on the last day of the week following the conclusion of yet another indecisive round of trade talks between the US and China where nothing was resolved aside from reports of a possible MOU to lay out “next steps” in the ongoing negotiations, global markets rebounded as ye olde “trade deal optimism” returned after China’s president said trade talks would continue in Washington DC  next week (as if there was any other option with the March 1 deadline looming). This helped reverse overnight stock losses, with US equity futures jumping almost 20 points from session lows, just as Europe opened for trade, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.8% on “hope.”

“Negotiations between both sides have achieved important progress in another step,” president Xi said after the 6th trade talks wrapped up in Beijing, quoted China’s Xinhua News Agency. “Next week, both sides are going to meet in Washington. I hope you keep up the good work, and push for a mutually-benefiting and win-win agreement.”

Xi said he values the “good working relationship” with President Donald Trump very much, and is willing to keep in touch with him in various ways. He added that China was “willing to solve the bilateral economic disputes and frictions through cooperation, and push for an agreement that both sides can accept. But cooperation has principles.”

Echoing the upbeat mood from the meeting, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sounded a positive note on Friday, saying he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer held “productive meetings” with China’s Vice Premier Liu He. They both also met Xi later in the day.

Steven Mnuchin

@stevenmnuchin1

Productive meetings with China’s Vice Premier Liu He and @USTradeRep Amb. Lighthizer.

Adding to the optimism was Trump’s uber trade hawk, Robert Lighthizer who said “We feel we have made headway on very, very important and difficult issues,” adding that “we have additional work we have to do but we are hopeful.”

Trade tensions between the U.S. and Beijing continue to dictate sentiment as the two sides race to reach a deal that would avert a tariff increase on Chinese goods by March 1. Growth concerns have also plagued investors after China’s factory inflation decelerated on softening demand.

And even though the two sides remained far apart this week on structural reforms to China’s economy that the U.S. has requested, according to three U.S. and Chinese officials quoted by Bloomberg, who said it would likely take a meeting between Xi and Trump to seal a deal, kicking the can was all algos needed to unleash global buying programs, and world markets were once again a familiar sea of green as we close out the week.

Propped up by this can-kicking optimism, European stocks burst out of the gate, with banks and media stocks pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index higher after a slow start, and wiping out all of Thursday’s losses. Even so, European car stocks, a bellwether for the continent’s economy, fell 1 percent as sales dropped for the 5th month in a row, and the deadline approached for a U.S. Commerce Department that could lead to the imposition of tariffs.

Sectors in Europe were mixed in early trading, with some outperformance seen in telecom names, after Telecom Italia (+6.0%) are towards the top of the Stoxx 600 after Italy’s state holding CDP said the board has authorisation to increase their stake to 10% in the next 12 months. Other notable movers include, Vivendi (+7.6%) who are topping the Stoxx 600 following their earnings release and comments that Bollore is to step down from the Co’s board in April. Separately, RBS (+1.3%) are in the green, following a beat on Q4 pre-tax operating profit and a special dividend for 2018. EDF (-4.6%) are near the bottom of the Stoxx 600, after their earnings release this morning.

Meanwhile, Asian shares retreated, perhaps because today’s “trade deal optimism” emerged too late to push Asian stocks higher, with Chinese stocks falling as weak factory prices highlighted the tough environment for industrial profitability, adding to other disappointing economic data. China’s CPI inflation eased further to 1.7% Y/Y in January from 1.9% in December, below consensus expectations (in month-on-month terms, headline CPI prices continued to decline by 0.6% in Jan). At the same time, year-over-year PPI inflation moderated further to 0.1% yoy in January, the lowest since October 2016, with prices down 4.7% mom s.a. ann in January. The petroleum industry still saw the largest deceleration in inflation, followed by chemicals and ferrous/nonferrous metals.

CPI and PPI inflation down further in January

Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.1 percent as market in Seoul, Tokyo and Shanghai all lost ground. Worries about the United States, which many considered a bright spot in the world economy, offset some optimism over trade talks in Beijing between the United States and China.

One remarkable aspect of the overnight session that was ignored by some traders was the record surge in China’s total aggregate financing, which exploded higher by a record 4.64 trillion yuan in January, far above the 3.31 trillion yuan expected, and nearly three times greater than December’s 1.59 trillion total. While New Loans beat expectations only modestly, printing at 3.23 trillion Yuan, the surge in aggregate credit was enough to push M2 from record lows, rising 8.4% from December’s 8.1%, and above the 8.2% expected.

With China’s credit creation by far the most important variable for the global economy, keep a close eye on this series for the next few months to see if Beijing can reflate markets.

 

In Washington, Congress sent President Donald Trump legislation he said he’ll sign to avoid another government shutdown as a new dispute looms over his decision to declare a national emergency to get more federal money for a border wall.

In the latest Brexit news, PM May’s officials are reportedly preparing to compromise on their demands to re-write the Brexit agreement and tell the EU it doesn’t want to renegotiate the agreement. EU and UK Brexit discussions are reportedly planned for Monday in Brussels where Brexit Secretary Barclays will meet with EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier. Sky News’ Tamara Cohen tweets “Dominic Grieve says a dozen pro-European ministers would resign if we were heading for no deal at end of Feb – including several in cabinet.”

In currencies, the Japanese yen and other safe-haven currencies made gains as the market awaited developments in the trade talks. The dollar remained fairly robust in spite of the U.S. retail figures, trading up 0.2 percent at 97.1 against a basket of major currencies. The euro was 0.2 percent lower at $1.1278 and headed for a second week of losses. It is down by 1.7 percent so far this year after discouraging economic data from the euro zone. In the U.K., the pound saw choppy trading after Parliament refused to endorse Prime Minister Theresa May’s approach to resolving the Brexit deadlock.

In rates, the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield fell to 2.6483 percent, wiping out most of its rise this week. Italian bonds pared declines as equities rebound, while core bonds are steady to slightly outperform semi-core. Spain is little moved by PM Sanchez calling a snap election for April 28.

Elsewhere, oil climbed on supply cuts and reduced output. Brent (+0.5%) and WTI (+0.5%) are firmer as markets received updates on US-China trade talks. Despite being firmer, prices are off session highs with Brent slipping back below USD 65.0/bbl after moving past this level for the first time this year earlier in the session Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia has suspended production at its Safaniyah offshore oilfield which is the world’s largest offshore oilfield with a capacity of up to 1.5mln BPD; production may be suspended until March. However, this is not expected to significantly impact Saudi Arabia’s supply level, with Saudi Aramco subsequently confirming that their facilities, including this one, are safe and normal. Looking ahead we have the Baker Hughes Rig count which last week say total rigs increase by 4. Gold (+0.3%) is largely unchanged in spite of the cautious risk environment and some dollar strength ahead of the 2nd largest SOMA day with USD 23.3bln of liquidity being drained.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures unch at 2,742.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 364.57
  • MXAP down 0.9% to 155.73
  • MXAPJ down 1.1% to 509.67
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 20,900.63
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,577.29
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 27,900.84
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 2,682.39
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 35,741.69
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 6,066.10
  • Kospi down 1.3% to 2,196.09
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 0.097%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1278
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 2.444%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 1.253%
  • Brent futures up 0.3% to $64.78/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,315.38
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.04

Top Overnight News

  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sounded a positive note on Friday as U.S.-China trade talks drew to a close in Beijing, as both sides tried to reach a deal that would avert a tariff increase on Chinese goods by March 1. China and U.S. will continue trade talks with the same group of people next week, SCMP reports, citing an unidentified person
  • In closed-door sessions this week, the U.S. and China have failed to narrow the gap around structural reforms to China’s economy that the U.S. has requested, according to three U.S. and Chinese officials who asked not to be identified because the talks were private. They said it would likely take a meeting between Xi and President Donald Trump to seal a deal
  • U.K. Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay privately told the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, the U.K. doesn’t need to re-open the divorce agreement and would accept other ways to address British concerns, a person familiar with the talks said
  • Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called a snap election, pitching the country into a period of fresh political uncertainty after a parliament veto of his budget laid bare his minority government’s inability to pass key legislation
  • Europe equity funds saw outflows of $5.9b in the week to Feb. 13, their second largest weekly outflows on record, according to BofAML strategists citing EPFR Global data
  • The combined units of Pimco and Allianz Global Investors faced 31 billion euros ($35 billion) of outflows from their funds in the final three months of the year, helping to drive assets under management down by 51 billion euros. Net outflows at compared with inflows of 27 billion euros in the third quarter
  • British Prime Minister Theresa May’s officials are preparing to compromise on their demands for a re-write of the Brexit agreement, according to a person familiar with the matter
  • Donald Trump plans to use unilateral authority to spend more than $8 billion to construct physical barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border, according to a White House official, a maneuver that risks provoking a lengthy legal battle over presidential powers. Congress sends Trump bill to avert shutdown amid emergency plan
  • China’s factory inflation decelerated for a seventh month, adding to concerns about the return of deflation and the impact that will have on already weak corporate profits
  • The Australian dollar has been buffeted by cross-currents at home and abroad, but its decline has provided some support to growth, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said Friday
  • Oil headed for its biggest weekly gain in a month as the OPEC+ coalition’s supply cuts overshadowed renewed concern over whether the world’s two largest economies will be able to reach a trade deal

Asian equity markets traded mostly negative following the weakness of their counterparts in US, where sentiment was dampened by a surprise contraction in Retail Sales. Furthermore, participants were also wary due to events in Washington where Congress passed the government funding and border security bill, which President Trump is expected to sign but is also anticipated to declare a national emergency. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) were lower from although the Australian benchmark later recovered led by strength in telecoms and energy, while losses in Japan were exacerbated by a firmer currency. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-1.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) weakened after further PBoC inaction resulted to a liquidity drain of CNY 680bln for the week and as participants digested softer than expected CPI data, while ongoing trade talks further added to the cautious tone with US and China said to be far apart on reform demands. Finally, 10yr JGBs tracked the recent gains in T-notes as the risk averse tone spurred a flight to safety, although some of the gains were eventually pared following a softer 10yr inflation-indexed auction.

Top Asian News

  • Khazanah Said to Raise $102m Selling BDO Bank Shares at Bottom
  • Hillhouse Dumped Tech Stocks Just as They Were Headed for Rally
  • Philippine Stocks Upgraded to Overweight at Daiwa on Inflation
  • China’s Slowing Factory Prices Add to Deflation, Profit Concerns

Major European equities have drifter higher from the open [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%] amidst trade optimism between the world’s two largest economies. Initial underperformance was experienced in the Dax (+0.4%) weighed on by the likes of Wirecard (-0.6%) alongside auto-names with Daimler (-0.5%), Volkswagen (-0.3%) and BMW (-0.8%) in the red following poor new EU27 car registrations data this morning, though optimistic trade developments somewhat supported sentiment. Both sides have expressed progress in talks, though dialogue is set to continue next week as not enough was agreed on to seal a deal. Sectors are similarly mixed with some outperformance seen in telecom names, after Telecom Italia (+6.0%) are towards the top of the Stoxx 600 after Italy’s state holding CDP said the board has authorisation to increase their stake to 10% in the next 12 months. Other notable movers include, Vivendi (+7.6%) who are topping the Stoxx 600 following their earnings release and comments that Bollore is to step down from the Co’s board in April. Separately, RBS (+1.3%) are in the green, following a beat on Q4 pre-tax operating profit and a special dividend for 2018. EDF (-4.6%) are near the bottom of the Stoxx 600, after their earnings release this morning.

Top European News

  • EDF Declines as 2019 Profit Outlook Falls Short of Expectations
  • U.K. Retail Sales Jump As Discounts Spur Spending on Clothing
  • Spain’s Sanchez Calls Snap Election for April 28 After Stalemate
  • Europe Car Sales Drop Signaling Trouble for Region’s Economy
  • Scout24 Gets $5.5 Billion Boost to Rival Axel Springer, Ebay

In FX, GBP is back on the 1.2800 handle, albeit barely, and Eur/Gbp has slipped back towards 0.8800 in wake of a much bigger than forecast rebound in UK retail sales. However, Brexit remains at the fore and PM May suffered another heavy defeat in Parliament ahead of the next meaningful vote at the end of February, so the Pound is still prone to set-backs in the run up to March 29, at least.

  • JPY – Usd/Jpy has pulled back further from Thursday’s new 2019 high, and an even more pronounced reversal could bring big option expiries into play at the 110.00 strike (2.6 bn). The rationale, less euphoria/optimism on the US-China trade front as talks in Beijing ended on a promising note, but with core issues still unresolved and more negotiation now scheduled to take place in Washington next week as the clock ticks down to March 1’s tariff deadline (unless that date is extended).
  • CAD/NZD/AUD/EUR/CHF – All narrowly mixed against a relatively static Greenback, as the DXY nestles just above the 97.000 level, with the Loonie pivoting 1.3300 after yesterday’s weak Canadian data trumped US retail sales, claims and PPI misses against the backdrop of stalling oil prices. Meanwhile, the Kiwi continues to outflank the Aussie down under, as Nzd/Usd hovers just below 0.6850 and Aud/Usd clings to 0.7100, with the cross sticking close to recent lows circa 1.0375. Note, comments from RBA’s Kent hardly helped the Aud, as he essentially welcomed the weaker currency on the grounds that the domestic economy has slack and inflation is low. Elsewhere, the single currency remains heavy on rebounds through 1.1300 and also has hefty option expiry interest to contend with as 1 bn sits between 1.1250-60 and 1.3 bn from 1.1270-80, while SOMA positioning could add even more downside pressure, as today is the 2nd largest on record (Usd23.3 bn). The Franc is still meandering off recent lows within a tight 1.0070-50 range and equally restrained vs the Eur between 1.1355-35.

In commodities, Brent (+0.5%) and WTI (+0.5%) are firmer as markets received updates on US-China trade talks, in the form of a memorandum of understanding, while recent reports indicate that talks have concluded. Despite being firmer, prices are off session highs with Brent slipping back below USD 65.0/bbl after moving past this level for the first time this year earlier in the session Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia has suspended production at its Safaniyah offshore oilfield which is the world’s largest offshore oilfield with a capacity of up to 1.5mln BPD; production may be suspended until March. However, this is not expected to significantly impact Saudi Arabia’s supply level, with Saudi Aramco subsequently confirming that their facilities, including this one, are safe and normal. Looking ahead we have the Baker Hughes Rig count which last week say total rigs increase by 4. Gold (+0.3%) is largely unchanged in spite of the cautious risk environment and some dollar strength ahead of the 2nd largest SOMA day with USD 23.3bln of liquidity being drained. Elsewhere, Vale’s CEO says that the miner’s safety procedures have not worked; while researchers at World Mine Tailings Failures have stated that these events are becoming more frequent.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 7, prior 3.9
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -1.0%
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.6%
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%;
  • Capacity Utilization, est. 78.7%, prior 78.7%
  • Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.0%, prior 1.1%
  • 10am: Mortgage Delinquencies, prior 4.47%; MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, prior 0.99%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 93.5, prior 91.2; Current Conditions, est. 111.6, prior 108.8;  Expectations, est. 85.5, prior 79.9
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $37.6b
  • 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $31.0b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Wow. That was the hottest Valentines’ Day I’ve experienced since I was in my early 20s. I was even dripping with sweat last night as a result. Yes in the U.K. yesterday an “African plume” made it the warmest February 14th since 1988 and I’ve just chosen this week to start cycling to the station again so given I was dressed for deep winter I got home dripping with sweat. If this warm weather carries on all weekend they’ll only be one outcome…… Chronic Hay-fever!!

After hot markets of late, a little bit of cold water has been poured on bourses over the last 24 hours. We saw the double-whammy of soft data releases in Germany and the US, and some negative trade headlines to dampen the mood. Just on the former, Germany posted 0.0% qoq growth in Q4 (vs. +0.1% expected) although in unrounded terms this was ever so marginally positive at +0.02%. This equates to an output increase of €150m versus Q3. In other words, Germany was €150m away from a recession if we use the usual definition of two consecutive negative quarters. For physical comparison, that’s about one and a half of Airbus’s short-haul A320 planes or just over a third of an A380 jumbo jet (albeit the final assembly of the latter is done in France). Kudos to our European Economics team for that stat. Today’s EuroMillions draw is in the region of €160m too for an alternative perspective. Win that and you could be worth an amount equivalent to the increase in output in Q4 of a country of 82.5m people.

Meanwhile, yesterday’s retail sales figures in the US might result in a few more ‘r’ words being bandied around such was the extent of the weakness. Headline sales in December tumbled -1.2% mom compared to expectations for a +0.1% mom rise. It was even worse for the core readings with ex auto and gas sales down -1.4% mom (vs. +0.4% expected) and the control group down -1.7% mom (vs. +0.4% expected). A reminder that the latter is an input into the GDP accounts. In fact the control group reading was down by the most in a single month since January 2000. So not particularly pretty any way you cut it. The talk amongst our economists was that the data was a bit of a head scratcher in that it belies other reliable data sources. Nevertheless the Atlanta Fed Q4 GDP tracker is now down to 1.5% from 2.6%. Not to be ignored also was the weekly initial jobless claims reading (239k vs. 225k expected) which rose 4k from the week prior. That puts the four-week moving average at 232k and the highest since January 2018. There’s some suggestion that weather had an impact but it’s proving hard to ignore the sustained tick up in recent weeks despite the external issues impacting the data. Overnight our US economists pushed back their Fed call by 3 months to a hike in September 2019 and one in March 2020. They’ve also removed a additional final hike that originally was expected in 2020. See here for the rationale.

In terms of markets, the big moves were reserved for rates where 10y Treasuries touched a low of 2.641% intraday, before closing slightly off that at 2.650%, albeit still -5.2bps down on the day. In Europe we saw Bunds flirt with the 10bps level again before closing at 0.103% (-1.9bps). OATs rallied -2.2bps and Gilts -2.7bps while Italy (+1.9bps) and Spain (+0.6bps) were weaker. As for what that meant for equity markets, the S&P 500 (-0.27%) snapped its four-day winning run with financials (-1.16%) the real laggard on a sector basis. The DOW and NASDAQ closed -0.41% and +0.09% respectively while the STOXX 600 – which in fairness was little moved post the Germany data – pared gains of as much as +0.57% to close -0.32%. European Banks were down -1.48% while the DAX (-0.69%) unsurprisingly underperformed. Meanwhile in currencies, the USD didn’t really know how to react and instead ebbed and flowed over the course of the day before ending -0.08%. Commodity markets were quiet with oil a shade higher by the end of play.

This morning in Asia markets are largely heading lower following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (-1.19%), Hang Seng (-1.64%), Shanghai Comp (-0.62%) and Kospi (-1.54%) all down. On the margin negative trade headlines mentioned below and China’s weaker than expected economic data are weighing on sentiment. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are also down -0.35%. On the economic data out of China, January CPI came in at +1.7% yoy (vs. +1.9% yoy expected; slowest pace of increase since January 2018) while PPI stood at +0.1% yoy (vs. +0.3% yoy expected; slowest pace of increase since October 2016).

Over in politics, President Trump is reportedly going to sign the funding deal today negotiated by House and Senate lawmakers. The deal would provide additional funding for border security, albeit not a wall as the President has asked for, which will according to Bloomberg headlines prompt him to declare a national emergency in order to divert funding from other sources to wall construction. We got further hints in this direction overnight with the White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders saying in a statement that, “President Trump will sign the government funding bill, and as he has stated before, he will also take other executive action — including a national emergency — to ensure we stop the national security and humanitarian crisis at the border.” Such a move is likely to be challenged in the courts, which will likely take months or years to resolve. More immediately relevant, the funding deal will avert a shutdown, which will allow government programs to continue operating, enable the IRS to continue disbursing tax refunds, and permit statistical agencies to continue their data releases unimpeded.

As for the latest on the US-China trade talks, Mnuchin and Lighthizer are meeting China President Xi Jinping today so all eyes on any soundbites we get from that. At the moment we haven’t heard of any scheduled post-meeting press conferences however that could all change. Yesterday’s comments from Kudlow about there being “no decision” on extending a deadline for imposing higher tariffs on China and the Bloomberg headline about both sides being “far apart on reform demands” appeared to take some of the sting out of markets. The reports suggested that USTR Lighthizer is pushing for strict timelines and specific deliverables to ensure a robust verification mechanism, but China is resisting the measures as an unfair infringement on their sovereignty. In fairness, the stories make sense in connection with other recent reports that the two sides may push for an extension in order to buy more time. In the meantime, the Financial Times has reported overnight that the US and China were scrambling to reach at least a “memorandum of understanding” by the end of today’s meeting so as to pave the way for a meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

In other news, last night’s vote in the House of Commons ended in yet another defeat for Prime Minister May, though this one was not especially significant as she’s promised a vote in two weeks on any revised agreement she gets with EU leaders. If she fails then the likelihood is that Parliament will increasingly take over proceedings. The pound ultimately ended the session -0.33% weaker.

In Fedspeak, the highlight was Governor Brainard’s interview with CNBC, her first remarks since the December FOMC meeting. She said that the “balance-sheet normalization process probably should come to an end later this year,” becoming the first FOMC speaker to lay down such a precise marker. Brainard noted that she would like to maintain a large enough buffer of excess reserves to make it easy for the fed to control short-term interest rates and avoid excess volatility. She also said that “downside risks have definitely increased” and “we’ll have to wait and see what the right move, if any, later in the year is.” So further evidence of a consensus for a near-term rate pause, and given Brainard’s history of being sensitive to overseas headwinds, it’s not surprising that she specifically mentioned “I’m very attentive to the international outlook.”

Coming back to data, the other important release out in the US yesterday was the January PPI report. While the ex food and energy reading actually came in above consensus (+0.3% mom vs. +0.2% expected), it didn’t go unnoticed that the healthcare component – which accounts for about 20% of the core PCE index – was a little on the soft side at just +0.11% mom. That suggests some downside for the core PCE when we get the January reading next month.

Finally, as for the day ahead, this morning in Europe the highlights are January retail sales data in the UK and the December trade balance reading for the Euro Area. In the US we’ve got a busy end to the week with the February empire manufacturing reading (+7.0 expected), January import price index reading (-0.1% mom expected), January industrial production reading (+0.1% mom expected) and preliminary February University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey print (93.5 expected). Away from that it’s the turn of the Fed’s Bostic to speak this afternoon, while over at the ECB we’re due to hear from both Coeure and Angeloni. Expect US-China trade talks to also be a big focus.

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.32 POINTS OR 1.37% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 531.21 POINTS OR 1.87%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 239.08 POINTS OR 1.13%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.15%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7709 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 54.70 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.94 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7709 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7792: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

3 C CHINA

i) CHINA/USA

After both Xi and Mnuchin sounded upbeat on their negotiations, Xi hinted that China will not budge on its economic reforms which is exactly what we promised you.  He will offer more purchases of USA goods but will not budget on the more important structural reforms like stealing USA technology

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

After Meeting With US Delegation, Xi Hints That China Won’t Budge On Economic Reforms

In brief remarks to the press following his meeting Friday with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer, President Xi affirmed that trade talks between the US and Chinese delegations will continue in Washington next week, and that while he hopes the two sides can reach a “mutually beneficial win-win agreement” he insisted that it wouldn’t come at the expense of “certain principles.”

“We are willing to adopt a cooperative approach to resolve and promote an agreement acceptable to both sides. However, cooperation requires certain principles.”

CNBC’s Eunice Yoon recounted the details of the announcement in a series of tweets. She described Xi’s remarks as a reminder that China has “its own bottom line” in talks with the US.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

U.S. trade negotiators @stevenmnuchin1 and @USTradeRep Lighthizer shaking hands with Xi Dada while Vice Premier Liu He looks on. The two Americans depart Beijing tonight while we await any statement on progress.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

U.S. negotiator says “very difficult issues” remain after U.S.-China trade talks @AFP

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

President Xi says trade negotiations with U.S. will continue in Washington next week, according to state media.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

President Xi says hopes and U.S. can reach mutually beneficial win-win agreement, says official media.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

President Xi says and U.S. have reached important step-by-step progress in latest trade talks, according to state media.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

state media says U.S. negotiators @stevenmnuchin1 @USTradeRep Lighthizer maintain hope, willing to work with China to reach a deal in line with both sides’ interests. (Ahh… the deferential Americans…)

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

“We are willing to adopt a cooperative approach to resolve and promote an agreement acceptable to both sides. However, cooperation requires certain principles.” – President Xi’s reminder to the U.S. that has its own bottom line in trade talks, says state media @XHNews

The fact that “very difficult issues remain” suggests that China and the US remain at an impasse on the most contentious issues like structural reforms to the Chinese economy and IP theft. Other media reports affirmed that the US and China have agreed to work toward a memorandum of understanding, and CCTV reports tokenly that China and US reach consensus on main topics “in principle”, but as with all prior negotiations, it is unclear if this represents any real progress.

What’s the solution? Why kick the can down the road

end

this is what caused the Dow to skyrocket 500 points from its lows: China unleashes a massive credit injection.  This is good for gold. China unleashed a huge 3.23 trillion yuan (482 billion dollars worth of loans). The Total Social Financing (TSF) rose to a massive 4.64 trillion yuan or 685 billion dollars.  The new TSF loans now total 30 billion USA dollars.  This is a massive debt and they will implode

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Here Comes The Shanghai Accord 2.0: China Unleashes Gargantuan Credit Injection To Start 2019

One month ago, we pointed out a curious shift in the official language out of China’s central bank: in late December, when traders were generally away on vacation, the PBOC indicated a critical shift in the official monetary policy description at the December Central Economic Work Conference, from “prudent and neutral” to prudent with appropriate looseness and tightness”. 

What caught our attention is that the new description was surprisingly similar to what was adopted in 2015, just as monetary policy eased significantly and ahead of the famous “Shanghai Accord” of January 2016 when, as the world was careening to a bear market, a coordinated response from G-7 leaders and China sparked a massive rally in stocks as China unleashed another massive credit injection burst which impacted the global economy for the next year. As Goldman said at the time, “such official policy language, while subtle, can carry important information about the monetary policy stance.”

Which is why in January we said that “while traders were focusing on the latest words out of Fed Chair Powell, is the real “risk-on” catalyst the hint out of China that a new “Shanghai Accord” may be imminent” and added that “the answer is most likely yes, especially if the upcoming US-China trade talks fail to yield a favorable outcome, as the alternative would be even more pain for China’s economy.”

One month later we got the answer when China overnight reported its latest credit aggregate data, and it was a doozy.

While the market’s attention may have been focused on that “other” news reported by China overnight, namely yet another disappointing month of CPI and PPI, as China’s CPI inflation eased further to 1.7% Y/Y in January from 1.9% in December, while PPI inflation moderated further to just barely above deflation territory, printing at 0.1% yoy in January, the lowest since October 2016…

… the highlight of the overnight data had little to do with China’s lagging inflation indicators, and everything to do with China’s latest new loan data reported by the PBOC. What it showed was that, whether alone or with others, Beijing has indeed decided to massively reflate its (and the global) economy, in what may soon be dubbed the Shanghai Accord 2.0

Here’s what happened in January: Chinese financial institutions made a record 3.23 trillion yuan of new loans, versus a projected 3 trillion yuan. That was the most in any month back to 1992, when the data began, and represented a whopping 13.4% yoy increase in January.

But while the surge in new loans was impressive, it was nothing compared to what China reported in its broader, all-encompassing Aggregate Financing (until recently Total Social Financing), which exploded nearly threefold from December’s 1.59 trillion to an unprecedented 4.64 trillion ($685 billion) in the month of January, smashing expectations of 3.31 trillion, and printing far above the highest forecast from 26 economists of 3.9 trillion. This was, as several traders noted, nothing short of a “gargantuan” credit injection, and an obvious greenlight to China’s latest attempt to reflate its economy.

According to the PBOC, TSF stock growth was 10.4% yoy in January, vs 9.8% yoy in December. If we add all local government bond net issuance to TSF flow data (excluding special bond issuance to avoid double counting), adjusted TSF stock growth at 11.2% yoy in January, higher than 10.5% in December. The implied month-on-month growth of adjusted TSF was a whopping 17% SA ann, higher than 10.9% in December.

The latest massive TSF injection brought the outstanding social aggregate financing to a record 205.1 trillion, or an unprecedented $30 trillion in aggregate loans, more than double China’s entire GDP.

Commenting on the surge, Goldman analyst Yu Song said that overall “TSF surprised the market substantially to the upside in January despite headline RMB loans being fairly close to expectations” noting that there were two main reasons for the surprise:

  • First, TSF data include RMB loans to the real economy, which were 3.6tn – actually stronger than headline RMB loans of 3.3tn. The latter figure includes loans between financial institutions, which by implication actually contracted in January.
  • Second, shadow banking components of TSF grew slightly. Actual data in January suggest new trust, entrust and bank acceptance bills together were 343bn RMB, vs a contraction of 170bn RMB in December. In contrast, consensus expectations imply that forecasters were likely expecting these components to continue to shrink. Corporate bond issuance was strong – net issuance climbed to RMB 499bn in January, vs 376bn in December – but this could be tracked fairly closely in advance given the high frequency data on bond issuance. Lower interbank rates in the month as PBOC stepped up liquidity injection (through RRR cuts, TMLF etc) may have contributed to the increase in non-loan components under TSF.

It’s especially notable that a big part of the TSF surge was the result of a fresh shadow banking expansion. Visualizing the bolded text above, the chart below indicates that Beijing may have thrown in the towel on its crackdown in Shadow Banking, which after contracting for almost all of 2018, not only rose for the first time in 11 months, but soared the most in nearly two years as Chinese regulators now appear focused on providing credit using the very same channels they spent the past two years desperately trying to block.

Speaking at a press conference, Ruan Jianhong, director of the PBOC’s statistics and analysis department, surprisingly said that growth in off-balance sheet financing will continue to decline but the pace will decelerate, suggesting once again that Beijing’s vendetta with shadow banking is now on “pause” to use the parlance of the Fed.

That said, Goldman does not go so far as to suggest a coordinated global credit injection is taking place (which may be required for a new “accord”), but instead believes that the stronger than expected TSF growth was “mainly because of the administrative pressures the government put on financial institutions. On the budget, fiscal policy stance was largely neutral judging from the change in fiscal deposit levels. But the more broadly defined fiscal position was dovish as the amount of special bond issuance was significantly larger than usual and much of these are not captured by the budget. 

As a result of this massive attempt to trigger China’s credit impulse, which as we showed recently is arguably the only thing that matters for the global economy…

… China’s M2 rebounded from near record lows, rising 8.4% yoy in January, and up from December: 8.1% yoy.

“China has been encouraging credit supply, and the effect of that is showing in January,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist at Standard Chartered Ltd. for Greater China & North Asia, adding that the seasonal lending increase at the start of the year also contributed. “The authorities have been tackling the supply side of the credit, and more proactive fiscal policies will help on the demand side.”

China’s far more aggressive loosening stance is a response to the widespread concerns that the economy would slow further going into the beginning of 2019, and there is still a risk that the economy may show a sharper decline after the Chinese New Year holiday, according to Goldman. The bank explains that the risk of a post-holiday decline owes to the fact that many labor contracts expire over the holiday, and also because businesses that have closed during the holiday may not reopen right away. Still, Goldman expects February TSF to remain strong, while the massive surge in TSF and better than expected export data should lower the risk of a downside scenario for the Chinese economy significantly.

The question is whether China has now overdone its credit injection, and after keeping the economy subdued through minimized credit creation, it has now careened in the other direction, and unleashed a powerful inflationary impulse.

We’ll have to wait for the answer, but one thing we do know is that this is just the start: as a reminder, China’s government this week announced new policies to help private and small companies get financing, including further boosting lending, expediting stock listing reviews and supporting bill financing. That’s the latest in a raft of policies – including inventing new central bank policy tools – to relieve the funding pressures faced by those businesses, which are usually less able to access bank loans than bigger, state-owned companies.

Finally, if this indeed is the market manifestation of a new Shanghai Accord, watch out above: the last time finance ministers and central bankers met in China in Jan 2016 to offset the global liquidity contraction that emerged after the Fed started tightening, it unleashed an unprecedented global buying spree sending stocks to all time highs and culminated with the Fed being forced to aggressively hike rates, eventually culminating with the dreaded selloff of Q4 2018. Fast forward three years later, when it appears that “here we go again…”

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

UK/CHINA

Just after UK Defense Secretary Williamson threatened to send a warship to the Pacific and namely into the South China Seas, China dramatically canceled UK trade talks

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Dramatically Cancels UK Trade Talks Hours After Defense Secretary’s Bellicose Speech

UK Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson has been caught at the center of a huge row with China after he threatened to send a warship to the Pacific. In response Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua cancelled scheduled trade talks with Britain’s finance minister Philip Hammond just “hours” after the remarks, Reuters revealed Thursday.

The talks had been set for the coming weekend, with reports specifically noting Chunhua canceled the meeting “in protest at Williamson’s speech on Monday.”

During those remarks the defense secretary said that the UK must “show [China] the high price of aggressive behavior.” He also spoke of the British military boosting its “lethality” however, ironically it appears Britain has actually suffered the immediate repercussions.

Prior file photo of Gavin Williamson aboard to HMS Queen Elizabeth, via the AP. 

Williamson has been frequently advancing his vision of Britain’s return to being a “hard power” in the world, and during the enthusiastic speech Monday revealed that HMS Queen Elizabeth, the country’s largest warship or small aircraft carrier, could deploy to the Pacific with two squadrons of UK and US F-35 fighter jets. He said that without a more aggressive UK defense posture, Britain “risks our nation being seen as little more than a paper tiger,” while China develops “its modern capability and commercial power.”

The unnecessary diplomatic row unleashed with Beijing has reportedly enraged Tory leadership. There is huge anger across cabinet. Gavin was partially inciting a war – the team knew China wouldn’t be happy,” a source toldThe Sun, which was the first to report the rift. They charged that what’s been commonly dubbed as Williamson’s “British Empire 2.0” rhetoric has risked “Britain’s chances to access Chinese markets worth billions,” according to The Sun report.

The Sun report further outlines the devastating short-term trade consequences of the over-zealous speech as follows:

China had been expected to lift their bans on British poultry and cosmetics which have not been tested on animals.

The agreements would have opened up access to markets worth an estimated £10.2 billion over five years.

Mr Hammond was expected to return to Britain on Sunday triumphantly clutching the two Memorandums of Understandings with China.

The deals would have been a desperately-needed boost for the Government, which is scrambling to drum up trade as Brexit looms.

But as the report notes, “Mr Chunhua pulled out of the talks at the eleventh hour.”

Chinese Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua (left), via the AFP

Meanwhile it appears PM Theresa May’s office is trying to downplay the row, telling Reuters the PM was not aware of any announced trip by Chancellor Hammond to China; instead it now appears China is ready to send only junior officials to the trade talks with the UK.

May had also distanced herself from Williamson’s China comments in the immediate aftermath of the speech earlier this week. According to The Independenther official spokesperson said “the carrier would not be deployed until 2021, that it would visit a number of global locations and that the PM would take the final decision over its route.”

Asked specifically about a more muscular approach to China, the prime minister’s office said further: ”In relation to China, I think we have set out areas where we have concerns – such as around cyber-intrusions against the UK and our allies. But it is also a country with which we have a strong and constructive relationship.”

This could spell the end of Williamson’s British Empire reboot defense policy efforts which have been prominent in his remarks for months, as Tory leaders attempt to reign him in and repair the economic damage.

END

SPAIN

Sanchez calls for an election on April 28 after losing his budget battle. Should be an interesting few months

(courtesy zerohedge)

Spanish Socialists Call For Snap Election After Losing Budget Battle

One day after pro-independence Catalonians allied with Spain’s conservatives to defeat the budget proposed by the leading socialists, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has called for snap election to be held on April 28, what would be Spain’s third general election in fewer than four years.

Sanchez

Calls for an election were widely expected following the budget’s defeat, since passing legislation has become a challenge for the socialists, who hold only 84 of the 350 seats in Spain’s parliament. The anti-establishment Ciudadanos and the Catalonians, who helped the socialists stage the successful no-confidence vote that led to the ouster of former conservative PM Mariano Rajoy last year, haven’t been as willing to work with the socialists on budgetary and other matters.

Here’s more from the Guardian:

“Between doing nothing and continuing without the budget and calling on Spaniards to have their say, I choose the second. Spain needs to keep advancing, progressing with tolerance, respect, moderation and common sense,” Sánchez said in a televised address to the nation following a cabinet meeting.

“I have proposed to dissolve parliament and call elections for 28 April.”

 

Wall Street analysts aren’t optimistic about the election’s prospects for streamlining the political process in Spain: Instead, they “will likely result in a more fragmented and polarized parliament, in which no two parties will gather a stable majority,” according to UBS’s Spain CIO Roberto Scholtes Ruiz.

Base case is moderate pro-reform center-right grouping of PP and Ciudadanos parties, possibly supported by new entrant “far- right” Vox Market reaction to uncertainty likely to remain muted as economic growth, budget deficit reduction, low risk of market-unfriendly coalition from the left of center to keep Spain “out of the spotlight”.

As the vote looms, here’s what investors need to know (text courtesy of Bloomberg):

1. How did things go wrong for Sanchez?

Sanchez’s government was always built on sand. With only 84 deputies in Spain’s 350-seat chamber, the Socialists persuaded both Catalan separatists and the anti-establishment group Podemos to back the no-confidence vote that ousted the conservative Mariano Rajoy in June. But Catalan demands for a referendum on independence, and the Socialist party’s pledge to defend Spain’s constitutional order, meant that alliance was always likely to prove short-lived.

2. Which parties are the front runners?

Spain’s political map has splintered since Rajoy took office with a landslide election win and an absolute majority in 2011. A consolidated survey of polls compiled by El Pais newspaper shows the Socialists in the lead with 24.4 percent support followed by the conservative People’s Party with 20.7 percent and the liberals of Ciudadanos at 18 percent. Support for Podemos has slipped to 15 percent, while Vox, a nationalist party, has come from nowhere to notch up 10.6 percent.

There are many moving parts and much could change but one possible outcome could be an alliance on the right of the PP, Ciudadanos and Vox. Those groups have been competing to take the harshest line on Catalan separatism and already collaborated to eject the Socialists from power in Andalusia after regional elections in December. Economy Minister Nadia Calvino on Thursday dubbed the trio “the right with three heads.”

3. What do investors make of it all?

While Spanish bonds wobbled at the first hint of snap elections early in the week, they held steady through Sanchez’s loss in parliament as investors took the chances of a change of government in their stride. The 10-year securities ended Wednesday trading little changed and yielding 1.23 percent, after the budget was blocked.

4. Has Sanchez achieved much with his time in government?

The weak Socialist presence in parliament meant Sanchez had to rely on governing by decree as he struggled to pass key legislation. A major theme of his government has been rolling back the effects of the austerity that followed Spain’s financial crash of 2012. He approved a unprecedented 22 percent increase in the minimum wage and embarked on the biggest public sector hiring program in a decade. He also pledged 2 billion euros ($2.26 billion) to fight youth unemployment and made a stand against gender violence.

5. How’s the economy doing?

After 21 straight quarters of growth, Spain’s economy remains a bright spot in the euro zone. Growth unexpectedly accelerated in the fourth quarter propelled by consumer and government spending. The Bank of Spain expects growth of 2.2 percent this year, compared with 2.5 percent in 2018, though that will still be faster than the euro-area average.

Calling for a vote is a serious risk for Sanchez. Though his socialists remain the most popular single party in Spain, commanding more than 30% of the public’s favor according to recent polling, a coalition of right wing parties commands a larger aggregate share of the public’s support.

end

EU

Oh OH!! this is good!!! Coeure a moderate in the ECB cabinet hints that things are not going too well in EU land and he hints at another TLTRO (massive QE).  This should stimulate gold to no end!!’

(courtesy zerohedge)

European Banks Jump, Euro Tumbles As ECB Hints New TLTRO Is Possible

Three months ago, The ECB warned that “only a serious economic shock” would prompt them to unleash a new round of TLTRO.

Today, ECB’s Coeure (neutral) confirms that the economic slowdown is stronger and broader than what they expected, warning that the inflation path will be shallower, and adding that a new TLTRO is possible and the ECB are currently discussing it.

The last time they rumored it – EUR plunged…

And bank stocks surged…

However, as we noted in November at the last jawboned effort, since nothing has been fixed in the Eurozone, the ECB will have no choice but launch a new T-LTRO, one which merely allows existing debt to be rolled over.

However by doing so it would confirm that the Eurozone has, in fact, triggered an “economic shock.”

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran/SYRIA/USA

Our resident expert on Middle East affair , Tom Luongo discusses that it is Putin who is pushing for peace.  He will holding back Erdogan from attacking the Kurds.  He is angry at Erdogan for not finishing off ISIS in Idlib province.

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

While Pompeo Pouts In Poland, Putin Pushes Peace In Syria

Authored by Tom Luongo,

If there was ever a Valentine’s Day which highlight the stark differences to diplomacy between the U.S. and Russia it is this one.

In Warsaw, the U.S. cajoled some sixty countries, many of them Arab, to send representatives only to be scolded like schoolchildren by Vice President Mike Pence for undermining the drive for war with Iran.

Mike Pompeo, for his part, showed no signs of shame or remorse after his public rebuke by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.

Szijjarto retorted to Pompeo’s lecturing that “the world is not going to be a better place if some countries spend their time intervening in the internal political affairs of other countries.” He insisted that Budapest can have transparent relations with Moscow and Beijing and the West, and said it was an “enormous hypocrisy”that Hungary is singled out for its ties with Moscow.

He then went to Poland with the intention of whipping up support for a war with Iran. But not to actually call it that. Until Benjamin Netanyahu arrived with fever dreams on his lips.

As Moon of Alabama pointed out, this was a huge slap for Pompeo, whose staff kept trying to downplay the anti-Iran nature of the Poland fiasco to make it more palatable for media consumption.

By claiming that the conference is about waging war on Iran Netanyahu is not only embarrassing the State Department and Secretary Mike Pompeo. He also makes it extremely difficult for other attendees to justify their presence. The Arabs will be especially furious that they are shown in such an open alliance with Israel and its hostility against Iran. Scheming with Israel in the dark is fine. But being publicly associated with a war mongering Israel is difficult to sell to their people. It would be unsurprising to see some of them leave.

The entire Warsaw meeting was designed to impress upon everyone how seriously they should take U.S. and Israeli desires for regime change in Iran. And how committed they are to keeping everyone in the fold on all matters pertaining to the Trump administration’s hostility towards Iran, Russia, and China.

This is part of a wider set of actions, taken broadly, designed to hit the headlines all at the same time:

  • U.S. is openly pushing for regime change in Venezuela and drumming up international support for it.
  • It is also urging EU Parliamentarians to push through new pipeline rules as part of changes to the EU’s Third Energy Package to try and stop the Nordstream 2 pipeline from being completed.
  • New sanctions were placed on Russia a few days after Moody’s had to accede to reality and upgrade Russian government debt to investment grade, which will only accelerate foreign capital inflows into Russia.

Pompeo and Netanyahu were putting the world on notice that they are not only 1) insane but 2) committed to their path to braying for war While, as Elijah Magnier points out, the entire dog and pony show in Warsawa was for Netanyahu’s re-election bid amidst cabinet resignations and corruption scandals.

At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts in Sochi to discuss the next phase of bringing peace to Syria.

These three countries continue moving the ball forward pragmatically and diplomatically to resolve the issues left by the U.S.’s insistence on staying in Syria.

Putin, with the iron fist firmly in his velvet glove, said two things that are important in his post-meeting remarks .

The first will give the frothing red-baiting, Trump-hating buffoons in the U.S. media and foreign policy establishments a fit of the vapors.

“President Trump is quite actively working on fulfilling his election campaign promises, which in practice rarely happens in the US political life. The withdrawal of the American troops from Syria was one of those promises,” Putin said.

Think of the thirteen different ways Rachel Maddow will spin this simple statement of truth by Putin. He’s got the goods on Trump. Putin wouldn’t say this if Trump were working for the U.S. Yadda Yadda Yadda.

This type of naked stupidity used to be frowned upon now it is openly encouraged at every level of the U.S. and European narrative machines.

But regardless of that, Putin is right to encourage Trump to fulfill that campaign promise because that is the quickest path to peace in Syria, a U.S. troop withdrawal.

Putin continued, “If that happens the only right decision in terms of security would be handing over those territories under the control of the Syrian armed forces.”

And that is his way of saying that he has control of Turkish President Erdogan and will not let the Syrian Kurds be attacked. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will not make reconciliation between his government and the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Council easy. But it will be better than anything Erdogan would offer them.

But, then again, they lost their gambit for independence the day Barzani’s Peshmerga forces were destroyed in Erbil, Iraq last year by the Iraqi militia known as the Popular Mobilization Unit.

Erdogan’s biggest worry is the U.S. leaving the Kurds weapons after leaving to be a constant annoyance on Turkey’s border. That’s the Bolton way of doing things.

Putin also stressed that Erdogan’s pet terrorists in Idlib province are to be wiped out as part of the plan to stabilize Syria. These are all wins for Syria diplomatically, establishing Turkey as Russia’s subordinate in the power structure to reshape the Middle East.

The fact that Erdogan was not in Warsaw with his NATO allies but rather at a high level summit with the Russian and Iranian presidents tells you all you need to know about where he feels his future lies.

Then again, I’ve taken for granted that Erdogan is still a NATO member in name only for a couple of years now, so I wasn’t surprised by this.

Lastly, don’t overlook the Saudi’s offer to Putin recently about creating a new OPEC+ cartel with Russia and Saudi Arabia leading it. Trump’s own plans for Middle East peace rest on the Saudis keeping the rest of the Gulf States in line, which is why there was nothing on the agenda about ending the conflict in Yemen.

In the end, the Neocons in D.C. and Tel Aviv are showing real desperation in summoning everyone to Poland while having almost no support for the intended policy, war with Iran.

You can only hold onto people for so long through fear of retribution. Eventually, they realize you can’t attack everyone at once all the time, though Trump and company are certainly willing to give it the old college try.

As each instance of disobedience occurs and punishment is ineffective – Erdogan is still in power despite a coup attempt and a currency attack, for example – the bolder allies will become in their own defiance.

*  *  *

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela/USA

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1269 DOWN .0026 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.47  DOWN .074 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2820    UP   0.0022  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3263 UP .0003 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 26 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1269/ Last night Shanghai composite closed DOWN 37.32 POINTS OR 1.37%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 531.21  POINTS OR 1.87% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .15%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 239.08  POINTS OR 1.13% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 531.21 POINTS OR 1.87%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.32 POINTS OR 1.37% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 15%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 239.08 POINTS OR 1.13%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1317.25

silver:$15.67

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.66% !!! DOWN 0 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.99 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.08 UP 4 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.56% DOWN 1     in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.02%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.24% UP 0   IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.80 UP 0    POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 156 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.10%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.70% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1269 DOWN   .0026 or 26 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 110.55 DOWN  0.0150 OR YEN UP 2 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2858 UP.0060( POUND UP 60  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 22 basis points to 1.3275

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed HOLIDAY AT 6.7731    0N SHORE

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7798(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2932

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.02%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.67 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.00 DOWN 2  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.10 UP 13 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 39.37 OR 0.55%

German Dax : UP 210,01 POINTS OR 1.89%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 90.67 POINTS OR  1.79%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 170.70 POINTS OR  1.91%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 377.38 POINTS OR 1.90%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 55.40 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 65.98 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.48  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.17 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 17 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD LOWERS TO +.10 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55/74

 

 

BRENT :  66.30

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.66..

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.99

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1299 ( UP 5    BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.40 DOWN .138 (YEN UP 14   BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.87 DOWN 11 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2892  UP 94 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.2818

the Russian rouble 66.29   UP .36 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 36 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3247 UP 50 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7731  (ONSHORE)/CLOSED FOR THE WEEK

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7703  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.10%

 

The Dow closed UP 444.06 POINTS OR 1.75%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 645.46 POINTS OR 0.61%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.99 CLOSED UP .34 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.693%  

 

 

FROM 2.684

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

“Goldilocks, My A$$” – Stocks Soar As Economic Data Crashes Most Since 2011

THE ABOVE HEADING SAYS IT ALL..10 YR YIELD REMAINS AT 2.66% AND DID NOT BUY THE DOW GAIN!!  (HARVEY)

2019 is off to the best start to a year since 1991 for the S&P 500…

As Earnings expectations have their worst 3-month drop in four years…

And macro data collapses…

That is the biggest weekly collapse in US Macro data since June 2011…

So, Stocks are back near record highs, earnings expectations have collapsed to 6-month lows and US Macroeconomic data is the weakest in 18 months (and crashing)…

*  *  *

Very mixed week for Chinese stocks with tech/small cap-heavy CHINEXT soaring and mega cap SSE50 almost unchanged…

And China’s CSI-300 broke back below its 200DMA…

European markets were all higher on the week, led by Italy up 4.5%…

 

All major US equity indices surged this week – for the 8th straight week…

 

After 4 days with a drop in the last 30 mins of trading, today saw the late-day buying-panic reappear…

 

Futures show the craziness better as markets went vertical at the cash open but Dow (up) and Nasdaq (down) diverged notably…

Dow futs closed over 600 points higher than the overnight lows on the shittiest week’s macro-economic data in 8 years!! “Goldilocks, my ass” as one veteran trader said.

S&P managed to break above its 200DMA but Nasdaq could not…

 

Shorts were squeezed higher for the 7th day in row…

 

And Buybacks dominated once again…

 

AAPL traded down on the day after Buffett reduced his exposure…(and so did AMZN amid all the NY chaos)

 

Toymakers were trounced…

 

Small Caps are the year’s best performer – up over 16% YTD… (Dow, S&P up over 10%)

 

VIX tumbled to a 14 handle and credit spreads collapsed on the week…

 

And before we leave equityland, here is the S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF!!!

 

While stocks soared, bonds were nto playing along (again)…

 

Treasury yields rose modestly on the week (with the long-end outperforming)…heavy calendar early in the week drove rates higher

 

Sending the yield curve notably flatter once again…

 

And 30Y Yield closed back below 3.00%…

 

The dollar dipped for the second day in a row but ended higher on the week…

 

China came back from its weeklong new year holiday, but the Yuan went nowhere…

 

Ether and Litecoin managed gains on the week with small losses for Bitcoin…

 

Despite dollar gains on the week, crude and gold both made gains…

 

It’s been quite ride for oil prices…

 

Gold was modestly higher against the dollar on the week, but notably stringer against the Yuan – strongest since 2016

Finally, as Bloomberg’s Ye Xie notes, by one measure, the S&P 500 is on track for the second best quarter in history.

The S&P has gained 22 days this year as of yesterday, or 71% of the trading sessions. If this pattern holds, it’ll be the best three-month period since second quarter of 1955, when the SPX jumped 12% and closed up 26% on the year.

Probably nothing to worry about…

But if there’s nothing to worry about, why did The Fed signal its extreme dovishness and why did the world’s central banks suddenly restart the printing press?

Bonus Chart: Cheap, it ain’t!!

end

MARKET TRADING

Early morning

WTF!

Come on!!

Come on!!

Dismal data this morning from import, export prices to industrial production has sparked a comical buying panic – Dow futures are up 500 points off overnight lows…

But while The Dow has gone vertical, Nasdaq is fading from the cash open…

Stocks remain decoupled from bond reality…

And finally there is this!!

end

ii)Market data/

With China imploding we expect to see USA import and export prices tumble and lo and behold we received just that as China exports its deflation big time.  This is very worrisome for manufacturers as they try and compete with China.

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Import, Export Prices Tumble As China Exports Most Deflation Since 2007

With import and export prices growth having slowed almost non-stop for six months – tracking China’s collapsing credit impulse – expectations were for a further acceleration in January…

And they did – both import and export prices indices tumbled more than expected into deflationary territory:

  • Import Prices dropped 1.7% YoY – weakest since Nov 2015
  • Export Prices dropped 0.2% YoY – weakest since Jan 2016

Under the hoods:

  • Import prices ex-fuels fell 0.2% after no change in Dec.
  • Import prices ex-petroleum fell 0.7% after rising 0.3% in Dec.
  • Import prices ex-food and fuel unchanged y/y in Jan.
  • Industrial supplies prices fell 1.7% after falling 3.8% in Dec.
  • Auto prices fell 0.2% after rising 0.1% in Dec.
  • Consumer goods prices fell 0.3% after rising 0.1% in Dec.
  • Export prices fell 0.6% after falling 0.6% in Dec.
  • Export prices ex-agriculture fell 0.3% after falling 1.1% in Dec.

Notice a trend?

Led by the most deflationary export print from China since Dec 2007…

Another not-inflation print that provides cover for The Fed to remain on the sidelines – but is this reason to buy stocks? A Deflationary impulse is rippling through the global economy and its baked in the cake – no matter what China does now to stimulate, there’s a lag.

end

Another biggy!! USA industrial production plunges in January with the key manufacturing sector contracts badly. Good reason for the stock market to rise.. (it was caused by the massive stimulus from China)

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Plunges In January As Manufacturing Unexpectedly Contracts

Driven by a 0.9% slump in manufacturing production.

Year-over-year Industrial production growth slowed to +3.8%, the weakest since June 2018…

The decline was driven by an 8.8 percent decline in motor vehicles and parts, with assemblies falling from the best pace in more than two years to the weakest reading since May.

Additionally, capacity utilization, measuring the amount of a plant that is in use, decreased to 78.2 percent from 78.8 percent.

And finally, the financialization of industrials…

When does it mean-revert?

US Industrial Production Plunges In January As Manufacturing Unexpectedly Contracts

Driven by a 0.9% slump in manufacturing production.

Year-over-year Industrial production growth slowed to +3.8%, the weakest since June 2018…

The decline was driven by an 8.8 percent decline in motor vehicles and parts, with assemblies falling from the best pace in more than two years to the weakest reading since May.

Additionally, capacity utilization, measuring the amount of a plant that is in use, decreased to 78.2 percent from 78.8 percent.

And finally, the financialization of industrials…

When does it mean-revert?

END

Soft data U. of Michigan sentiment rebounds but inflation forecasts hit a record low.  This data comes out right after government goes back to work

(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich Sentiment Rebounds In Feb But Inflation Forecast Hits Record Low

 

 

 

end

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Trump to unveil his 8 billion dollar border wall funding today;

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump To Unveil $8 Billion Border Wall Funding Plan Today

Having successfully passed the House and Senate, the compromise border security bill to avoid another government shutdown has wended its way to President Trump’s desk.

As he confirmed earlier, Trump plans on signing the bipartisan congressional bill and declaring a national emergency at the southern border to expand the limited border wall funding ($1.375 billion) in the bill.

As Bloomberg reports, Trump plans to use his unilateral authority to spend more than $8 billion to construct physical barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border, according to a White House official, a maneuver that Speaker Pelosi has already warned will likely prompt a lengthy legal challenge:

“The president is doing an end run around Congress, the power of the purse.”

The president will invoke an emergency declaration to redirect an additional $3.5 billion Congress approved for the Defense Department’s military construction budget, said another person familiar with the deliberations.

Trump also will use his ordinary executive authority to reprogram $2.5 billion from the Defense Department’s drug interdiction efforts and $600 million from the Treasury department’s drug forfeiture program, said the person, who asked not to be identified to discuss plans ahead of announcement.

The strategy avoids another politically risky government shutdown while allowing him to show his political supporters he has the will to build the wall.

The White House confirmed that Trump will address the nation with regard the Border Wall situation at 10amET tomorrow.

“President Trump will sign the government funding bill, and as he has stated before, he will also take other executive action — including a national emergency — to ensure we stop the national security and humanitarian crisis at the border,” White House spokesman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement.

“The President is once again delivering on his promise to build the wall, protect the border, and secure our great country.”

And just in case you were wondering what the left is thinking, here is Beto O’Rourke claiming that Americans have not “in any demonstrative way” been made safer by the current wall and finally addressing Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s question:

“if you could snap your fingers and make El Paso’s border wall disappear, would you?”

O’Rourke replied during an MSNBC interview at the border today…

“Yes, absolutely. I’d take the wall down.”

Crenshaw immediately responded that “at least Beto is honest about his open border policy” since “most [Democrats] claim to support a secure border while simultaneously undermining it at every turn.”

“Should also note: El Paso mayor stated ‘The fence has worked.’ Residents have ‘stated that they felt more secure with the fence.’” Crenshaw added.

Of course, we should expect an avalanche of media-sponsored outrage that President Trump should declare this a National Emergency in order to secure funding, but as The Epoch Times detailsthere are currently 31 National Emergencies:

  1. Nov 14, 1979: Blocking Iranian Government Property (EO12170)
  2. Nov 14, 1994: Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (EO 12938)
  3. Jan 23, 1995: Prohibiting Transactions With Terrorists Who Threaten To Disrupt the Middle East Peace Process (EO 12947)
  4. Mar 15, 1995: Prohibiting Certain Transactions with Respect to the Development of Iranian Petroleum Resources (EO 12957)
  5. Oct 21, 1995: Blocking Assets and Prohibiting Transactions with Significant Narcotics Traffickers (EO 12978)
  6. Mar 1, 1996: Declaration of a National Emergency and Invocation of Emergency Authority Relating to the Regulation of the Anchorage and Movement of Vessels (Proc. 6867)
  7. Nov 3, 1997: Blocking Sudanese Government Property and Prohibiting Transactions With Sudan (EO 13067)
  8. Jun 26, 2001: Blocking Property of Persons Who Threaten International Stabilization Efforts in the Western Balkans (EO 13219)
  9. Aug 17, 2001: Continuation of Export Control Regulations (EO 13222)
  10. Sep 14, 2001: Declaration of National Emergency by Reason of Certain Terrorist Attacks (Proc. 7463)
  11. Sep 23, 2001: Blocking Property and Prohibiting Transactions With Persons Who Commit, Threaten To Commit, or Support Terrorism (EO 13224)
  12. Mar 6, 2003: Blocking Property of Persons Undermining Democratic Processes or Institutions in Zimbabwe (EO 13288)
  13. May 22, 2003: Protecting the Development Fund for Iraq and Certain Other Property in Which Iraq Has an Interest (EO 13303)
  14. May 11, 2004: Blocking Property of Certain Persons and Prohibiting the Export of Certain Goods to Syria (EO 13338)
  15. Jun 16, 2006: Blocking Property of Certain Persons Undermining Democratic Processes or Institutions in Belarus (EO 13405)
  16. Oct 27, 2006: Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (EO 13413)
  17. Aug 1, 2007: Blocking Property of Persons Undermining the Sovereignty of Lebanon or Its Democratic Processes and Institutions (EO 13441)
  18. Jun 26, 2008: Continuing Certain Restrictions With Respect to North Korea & North Korean Nationals (EO 13466)
  19. Apr 12, 2010: Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Conflict in Somalia (EO 13536)
  20. Feb 25, 2011: Blocking Property and Prohibiting Certain Transactions Related to Libya (EO 13566)
  21. Jul 24, 2011: Blocking Property of Transnational Criminal Organizations (EO13581)
  22. May 16, 2012: Blocking Property of Persons Threatening the Peace, Security, or Stability of Yemen (EO 13611)
  23. Mar 6, 2014: Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Ukraine (EO 13660)
  24. Apr 3, 2014: Blocking Property of Certain Persons With Respect to South Sudan (EO 13664)
  25. May 12, 2014: Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Conflict in the Central African Republic (EO 13667)
  26. Mar 8, 2015: Blocking Property and Suspending Entry of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Venezuela (EO 13692)
  27. Apr 1, 2015: Blocking the Property of Certain Persons Engaging in Significant Malicious Cyber-Enabled Activities (EO 13694)
  28. Nov 22, 2015: Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Burundi (EO 13712)
  29. Dec 20, 2017: Blocking the Property of Persons Involved in Serious Human Rights Abuse or Corruption (EO13818)
  30. Sep 12, 2018: Imposing Certain Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election (EO 13848)
  31. Nov 27, 2018: Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Nicaragua (EO 13851)

If President Trump declare the National Emergency tomorrow it will become number 32.

end
Socialized healthcare exposes reality:  30,000 dead due to record long hospital waiting times. It takes months to have corrective surgery and I am a prime example of it in Canada,.
(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)

Socialized Healthcare Reality Exposed: 30,000 Dead Due To Record Long Hospital Waiting Times

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

NHS (National Health Services) leaders, those in charge of the United Kingdom’s socialized healthcare, have said that hospital wait times have reached record lengths. Waiting times at A&E departments in England last month were at their worst levels since records began, despite pressures from flu and bad weather so far this winter being significantly lower than in 2018.

The figures should be a wake-up call to the government and the socialists in the United States.  Socialized medicine is designed to fail. No amount of additional government will fix it either.  The UK insists that it’s chronic underfunding in social care and a mounting staffing crisis is creating dangerous pressures in hospitals.  Yet spending on health care in the United Kingdom has more than doubled in the past 18 years, after adjusting for inflation. All of that is a problem because of government intervention, and the poor news will only continue to get worse, according to the UK news source, The Independent.

Infographic: More and more people made to wait by the NHS | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The United Kingdom’s horror stories should dissuade Americans from accepting any form of single-payer.  National Health Service, which celebrated its 70th anniversary on July 5, is imploding rapidly, according to Forbes.

The NHS has struggled to fully staff its hospitals and clinics since its inception in 1948. But today, the shortages are growing worse. 9% of physician posts are vacant making that a disastrous and deadly shortfall of nearly 11,500 doctors.  The NHS is also short 42,000 nurses. In the second quarter alone, nurse vacancies increased by 17%. Meanwhile, in the United States, nearly all states will have a surplus of nurses by 2030. Doctors and nurses simply don’t want to work for the state, which makes their lives far too difficult and their job far too intense for the money.

And it really isn’t that surprising that people don’t want to work as nurses in Great Britain; it’s a stressful job, with long hours and terrible working conditions – all implemented by the authoritarian government control. Some NHS nurses are taking positions at supermarkets because stacking shelves comes with better hours, benefits, and pay, according to a report in the London Economic. Imagine that; a private job is much superior to a government job.

Infographic: NHS waiting times targets fading into the distance | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The shortage of providers is what’s causing long wait times. In May of 2018, 4.3 million people in the United Kingdom were on waiting lists for surgery, a 10-year high. And these wait times are killing people.

An analysis that covered just half of England’s hospitals found that almost 30,000 patients died in the past year while waiting for treatment. And according to Forbes, it’s only going to get worse. 

In some cases, the NHS has refused to provide treatment at all. In June of 2018, NHS England said that it would discontinue coverage of 17 procedures, including tonsillectomies and knee arthroscopies for osteoarthritis patients.

If that isn’t bad enough, once a person does actually get treatment, it’s incredibly poor by even a socialist’s standards. Patients in British hospitals are four times more likely to die than in U.S. hospitals, according to an analysis of outcomes from 2,000 similar surgeries conducted by researchers from University College London and Columbia University in New York.

“Medicare for All’s proponents say single-payer delivers high-quality, free care to all. Britons idling on wait lists, unable to secure the care they need, would surely beg to differ.” –Sally Pipes, Forbes contributor

Among the more severely ill patients, the disparity was worse; the sickest Brits were seven times more likely to die.

end

SWAMP STORIES

A New Jersey pension fund might ditch a hedge fund, Chatham Asset Management, that owns 80% of the National Enquirer which is in deep financial straits.

(courtesy zerohedge)

NJ Pension Fund Might Ditch Enquirer Owner As Bezos Blackmail Backlash Intensifies

As federal prosecutors explore whether National Enquirer publisher AMI broke the law by allegedly trying to blackmail Jeff Bezos, the world’s richest man, one public pension fund in blue-state New Jersey is exploring ways to hit AMI where it would hurt the most: in its pocketbook. Or at least, find a way to punish the investors who have helped keep AMI afloat, according to Bloomberg.

Chatham

Kevin O’Malley, a principal at Chatham Asset Management

Following reports that AMI is in dire financial straits, and facing a popular backlash, New Jersey’s State Investment Council, which exercises ultimate authority over its $77 billion state pension fund, is reportedly considering ditching its investment in Chatham Asset Management, the $4 billion hedge fund that owns 80% of AMI, after the  “seriously troubling” revelations about the paper’s attempt to blackmail Jeff Bezos.

New Jersey’s State Investment Council called Jeff Bezos’s allegations against the National Enquirer seriously troubling and said it’s evaluating its options for the state pension fund’s investment in Chatham Asset Management, the hedge fund that owns most of the newspaper’s parent company.

“The allegations of AMI’s conduct, if true, are completely unacceptable and violate our expectations for investment partners,” Adam Liebtag, acting chairman of the investment council, said in an email, referring to Enquirer parent American Media Inc. “It is extremely disappointing that the Pension Fund, as an investor, and our beneficiaries, have to be linked to such a distasteful story.”

The council’s acting chairman, Adam Liebtag said the board has relayed ts concerns to Chatham, and though its investment in the fund manager has been successful, is seriously considering ditching the fund.

“While the investment has performed well to date, that is no excuse for this type of behavior. We continue to explore all available options,” he said.

Limiting risk is also a factor in the fund’s decision-making, as the board is reportedly responsible for making sure companies in which it is invested follow all applicable laws.

The state pension fund’s investment in Chatham has become the subject of renewed scrutiny after after a bombshell blog post published by Bezos, who accused the Enquirer of trying to blackmail him with photos of him with a woman who wasn’t his wife. The tech billionaire also suggested that American Media might have been acting on behalf of President Donald Trump and questioned whether it was motivated by coverage of Saudi Arabia in Bezos’ Washington Post newspaper.

Elkan Abramowitz, an attorney for AMI Chairman David Pecker, has denied that there was any blackmail, extortion or political motivation involved in the fight between the tabloid and Bezos. Chatham, meanwhile, has said that it has no involvement in the editorial process or the day-to-day business decisions of the company.

If NJ’s pension fund does drop Chatham, this could have repercussions across the asset management industry. After all, Leon Cooperman, the CEO of Omega Advisors, still owns a small stake in AMI. If the backlash grows, institutions might start evaluating whether to pull out of that fund, too.

end
The brother of Sanchez denies leaking pictures to the Enquirer
(courtesy zerohedge)

Brother Of Bezos Mistress Denies Leaking Dick-Pics To Enquirer; Offers New Theory

Michael Sanchez, the brother of Jeff Bezos’ mistress Lauren Sanchez, has outright denied being the National Enquirer’s source of leaked dick pics of the Billionaire Amazon CEO, reports Vanity Fair‘s Gabriel Sherman.

“I had nothing to do with leak of the dick pics. That’s the important thing,” Sanchez told Sherman. “I never had access. It’s clear they were sent to others. There are, like, 20 dick pics.”

Sanchez offers a new theory suggesting that the dick picks could have come from anywhere.

“Lauren likely shared them with multiple girlfriends, not in a malicious way, that’s not her style, but when she’s in love, she got a kick out of sharing them. One time she tried to show me one and I was like, ‘What the fuck is wrong with you? I don’t want to see that!’

Lauren and Michael Sanchez in an undated photo

That said, Sanchez did admit: “I’m not saying I didn’t do something.” – an accusation first lobbed at Michael by longtime Bezos security chief Gavin de Becker, citing “political motives” due to Michael’s avid support of Donald Trump.

“Until I go under oath, what I can tell you now is that ever since April 20, when I met Jeff, my only goal has been to protect Jeff and Lauren,” he added.

On Sunday the Daily Beast reported that Michael Sanchez was the source of the “racy texts” – which included notes from Bezos such as “I want to smell you, I want to breathe you in. I want to hold you tight.”

As Sherman notes in Vanity Fair, “Michael’s claim that he is acting in Bezos’s best interest is difficult to fathom given that he’s been accused by de Becker as being the leaker and has maintained a friendly relationship with A.M.I. for years.”

But Michael insisted he “loves Jeff” and wants his sister’s relationship to succeed. Over the last year, he said, he served as an unofficial adviser to the couple as they discussed what would happen if their love affair leaked. “They were talking marriage,” he told me. “The three of us had discussed before that, at some point, this was going to be a scandal. My advice was, let’s get to the other side. Our analogy was always that they were landing a 747. I told them, ‘You’re both pilots and you’ve never landed a 747, but that’s what we’re trying to do here.’”  –Vanity Fair

Michael Sanchez also claims that once Bezos and Lauren Sanchez were outed in January by an Enquirer reporter who called the couple for a comment on their affair, he helped them strategize over what to do.

“Lauren and Jeff called me like 911. They were terrified,” Michael said – adding that one of the options on the table included buying AMI, the Enquirer’s parent company owned by Trump ally David Pecker.

“We discussed the possibility to buy A.M.I.—not to kill the story, but to find out the source. They said that’s not a bad idea. We discussed numbers and the name of the LLC that we’d use. It would be called BOBO LCC”—short for Lauren’s helicopter filming company, Black Ops, and Bezos’s space company, Blue Origin—“that’s the level of detail we went into,” said Michael Sanchez.

Instead of executing that plan – which would have included Michael flying to New York on January 8 to meet with Enquirer editor Dylan Howard – Bezos hired powerhouse Los Angeles lawyer Marty Singer. The next day, Bezos tweeted that he was divorcing his wife MacKenzie.

Michael Sanchez blamed de Becker, the security chief, for Bezos’ change of heart for “selfish motives.”

Sanchez says he and de Becker have had beef with each other ever since the Enquirer published the Bezos story.

Lauren calls it a cockfight,” said Michael.

The agendas of the opposing camps have produced competing theories as to who is to blame. In his Medium post, Bezos suggested a vast conspiracy involving Trump and Saudi Arabia and the possibility that his communications were hacked to damage him as payback for The Washington Post’s crusading investigation into the murder of Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

But Michael Sanchez said Bezos and de Becker are framing the scandal as a pro-Trump political hit job to distract the public from a far simpler story: Bezos cheated on his wife and de Becker’s security apparatus couldn’t prevent Bezos from being caught. Michael said de Becker’s judgment is clouded because he has been trying to break Lauren and Bezos up to protect MacKenzie Bezos, a close de Becker friend. De Becker reportedly told Bezos to agree to a 30-day physical separation from Lauren. –Vanity Fair

According to Michael Sanchez, the scandal has brought Bezos and his sister “closer together.”

“The truth will come out about my motivations and how much I believe in Jeff and Lauren’s love,” said Michael. “It’s a legendary romance that will blow your mind as to just how in love they are. Jeff never blinked about losing $70 billion.”

end
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

Coke Drops Most Since 2008 as Pressure Rises for CEO Quincey

Coca-Cola Co. sold fewer drinks in the Americas in the fourth quarter… Shares fell as much as 7.9 percent — the most since intraday since 2008…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/coke-drops-as-slower-growth-raises-the-pressure-on-ceo-quincey

ESHs hit on bottom of 2730.25 fifteen minutes after the NYSE open.  The eager trader buying after the early tumble pushed ESHs 13 handles higher within 30 minutes.

Despite the ugly US economic news, traders are still bullish because of Powell and the feckless Fed – plus it is expiration week.  The morning rally was boosted by more verbal intervention from Uncle Lar.

Larry Kudlow surfaced and saved equities by averring that there are ‘glitches’ in the retail sales data and most likely the government shutdown impaired consumer buying.  Uncle Lar, just to complete the verbal intervention, added that he is “delighted” that Fed monetary policy is on hold, the ‘vibe in China is good’ and US trade negotiators will meet with Xi on Friday.

The US government shutdown commenced on December 22, 2018 at midnight, the Saturday before Christmas.  By that time, most Christmas spending was complete.  So, Uncle Lar is delusional.

ESHs hit 2748.25 by the beginning of the second hour of US trading.  The DJTA and Nasdaq turned positive.  This is an extremely dangerous game that Team Trump is playing with the stock market.

The Kudlow rally abruptly reversed on this BBG headline and story:

U.S.-China Trade Teams Said to be Far Apart on Reform Demands

The U.S. and China have made little progress so far during trade talks in Beijing… [It’s like US-Japan negotiations!]  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/u-s-china-trade-teams-far-apart-on-reform-demands-sources-say

ESHs tumbled 13 handles within seconds of the above story hitting the tape.  However, traders immediately bought the dip. Powell has removed fear of the downside from too many traders’ psyches.

The rally, after the plunge on the faltering US-China negotiations report, could not challenge the high of the Kudlow rally.  So, ESHs and stocks retreated.  But, traders weren’t about to give up on forcing ESHs and stocks higher despite the negative news.  The usual suspects poured back into ESHs after the European close, driving them not only above the Kudlow rally high, but to a new session high at midday. The rally lasted only 50 minutes.  Stocks then went inert until a modest VIX Fix rally appeared.

ESHs surged just after the final hour of trading commenced.  However, the rally quickly aborted on this:

@BreakingNLive: Sources close to President Trump now say the President won’t sign funding bill, which would give him $1.3 billion for border barrier and avoid a second shutdown.

@MarkSKrikorian: Sec.224 is a poison pill: Gives deportation immunity to any sponsor—or POTENTIAL sponsor—of an “unaccompanied” alien child. Creates incentive for illegals already here to order up kids from Central America (or anywhere)…

GOP/Dem Deal to Spark ‘Largest Surge’ of Young Border Crossers ‘Country Has Ever Seen’

“In simple English, every new unaccompanied minor who arrives at our border will trigger an amnesty for multiple adult illegal aliens who are already in the country,”…

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/02/14/experts-gop-dem-deal-to-spark-largest-surge-of-young-border-crossers-country-has-ever-seen/

Spending Bill Allows Mexican Cartel-Connected Texas Counties to Stop Border Wall

Require the approval of local governments in order to move forward with the construction of any border barriers…  https://www.breitbart.com/border/2019/02/14/the-bill-allows-county-offices-with-historic-ties-to-the-gulf-cartel-to-stop-u-s-border-barriers-from-being-constructed-in-the-region/

kausmickey: We elected Trump to control the borders. Will his actual legacy be a huge surge of illegal border crossers because he doesn’t care what’s actually in the bills he signs?  The surge will hit before the 2020 election. Trump will be to blame for signing it.

The late decline halted on this WaPo story: Trump will support a sweeping budget and border compromise and declare a national emergency at the same time, Mitch McConnell says

This item soon followed McConnell’s comment: Trump to Sign Funding Bill, Declare Emergency White House Says

Pelosi said Democrats might file a legal challenge to Trump’s National Emergency Declaration.

ESHs and stocks declined during the final fifteen minutes of trading.  Thursday’s session was pretty much what we thought would occur.

From Thursday’s King Report: Barring news, the probability is high for equity weakness in the morning and a rally attempt in the afternoon.  Will the afternoon rally carry to the close or will sellers overwhelm traders that are playing for the early rally on expiration day?

@ByronYork: [Disgraced ex-FBI Deputy Dir.] McCabe confirms: After president fired FBI director, national security apparatus strategized removing president. [A Deep State coup attempt/sedition]

https://twitter.com/NorahODonnell/status/1096021309904076800

CBS’s @NorahODonnell: @ScottPelley on what McCabe told @60Minutes: “There were meetings at the Justice Department at which it was discussed whether the vice president and a majority of the cabinet could be brought together to remove the president of the United States under the 25th Amendment.”

Only Congress can invoke the 25th Amendment; and it takes a 2/3 vote of the Senate to enforce it.  The actions that McCabe detailed to “60 Minutes” are a Deep State coup. The question is who organized it.

CNN’s @jimsciutto: McCabe also tells CBS that Rosenstein’s offer to wear a wire with the president was raised more than once and that McCabe took it to the lawyers at the FBI to discuss. https://twitter.com/NorahODonnell/status/1096020537069977600

@JackPosobiec: McCabe confirmed today that the initial purpose for the FBI meetings was how to remove Trump from office.  Those meetings led to the appointment of Robert Mueller…

 

Senate Judiciary Com Chair @LindseyGrahamSC: After Mr. McCabe’s 60 Minutes interview, it is imperative that he, and others, come before @senjudiciary to fully explain how and why a FISA warrant was issued against Carter Page and answer questions about what appears to be, now more than ever, bias against President Trump.

     …Was there an attempt at a bureaucratic coup to take out President Trump?  Who is telling the truth about invoking the 25th Amendment – McCabe or Rosenstein?  Must find answers.  All Americans should be concerned. I take this seriously.  And I’m confident new Attorney General will too.

CBS Radio’s @stevenportnoy: From the Dept of Justice: “The Deputy Attorney General [Rod] again rejects Mr. McCabe’s recitation of events as inaccurate and factually incorrect… The Deputy Attorney General never authorized any recording that Mr. McCabe references…

Nunes: Secret Court [FISC] Must Sanction Those Who Violated Its Rules to Spy on Americans

There is a high probability that criminal charges will be brought against those who abused the FISA system, Nunes added…  https://saraacarter.com/nunes-secret-court-must-sanction-those-who-violated-its-rules-to-spy-on-americans/

WaPo at 13:10 ET: Senate votes to confirm William Barr as attorney general. He will oversee Mueller probe as lawmakers grow eager to see its results.

Solomon: Rod Rosenstein’s final insult to Congress: Farewell time for reporters but not testimony –

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/429992-rod-rosensteins-final-insult-to-congress-farewell-time-for-reporters-but

@julie_kelly2: Trump should’ve fired all of them immediately and released all the info they had at the time. You know why he didn’t? Because Sessions was voluntarily incapacitated and most of the cowardly GOP would’ve opposed that action, even though they knew what had happened at DOJ.

 

Justice Department investigating leak of confidential Michael Cohen bank records

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/13/politics/michael-cohen-personal-bank-records-charges/index.html

OAN’s @RyanGirdusky: If you think McCabe and Rosenstein are working against Trump… you should hear what Mulvaney and Kushner are doing.  Trump could pick random names out of a phone book and get a more loyal staff than the one he has.

-END-

Let us close with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunte rof USAWatchdog

 

Open Border Bill Sent to Trump, Emergency Declared, Central Banks Still Buying Gold

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 371 2.15.19)

The bill being sent to the President was touted as some sort of breakthrough by key Republican negotiators, but it was more of a capitulation than anything else. Hope Trump does not sign it.

So, now, the White House is saying the President will sign the bill and declare a State of Emergency on border security. Why sign it at all until it gets some work done on making more security for Americans instead of what the weasels in Congress put together? Just declare an emergency and build the wall unencumbered.

Central banks have been buying record amounts of gold and have been doing so ever since the 2008 financial meltdown. What does that tell you about how they are thinking? Why aren’t the central banks buying bonds or stocks? Maybe gold and silver are the only undervalued assets on the planet, and everything is going to melt down when the “everything bubble” pops.

Join Greg Hunter as he gives his take on the top stories of the week in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

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-END-

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-END-

 

I WILL SEE YOU TUESDAY NIGHT
HARVEY
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