FEB 20/GOLD ADVANCES ANOTHER $3.10 BY COMEX CLOSING TIME TO $1341.85/SILVER ADVANCES 19 CENTS TO $16.20//THE BANKERS SUPPLIED MAMMOTH AMOUNT OF PAPER GOLD TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ADVANCE//FOMC: GOLD BULLISH AS THE FED CLOWNS ARE LOOKING TO END ROLL OFFS FROM ITS BALANCE SHEET BY YEAR END//SEEMS THAT MUELLER WILL END HIS WITCH HUNT BY NEXT WEEK/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

 

 

GOLD: $1344.95 UP $3.10 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $16.20 UP 19 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1338.70

 

silver: $16.06

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

FEBRUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 90 NOTICE(S) FOR 9000 OZ (0.2799 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  10,323 NOTICES FOR 1,032,300 OZ  (32.108 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEBRUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 565 for 2,825,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3956:UP $45

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3958  UP $47.

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3338 CONTRACTS FROM 217,484 UP TO 220,822 WITH YESTERDAY’S STRONG 25 CENT GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

2717 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL, 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2717 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2717 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2717 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.585 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 25 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

AND NOW 2.830 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 19,788 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,788 CONTRACTS) OR 98.940 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1413 CONTRACTS OR 7.067 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB:  98.940 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 14.12% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          307.465    MILLION OZ. (CORRECTED)

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3338 WITH THE 25 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2717 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A GIGANTIC SIZED: 6055 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2717 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 3338 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 25 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.01 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.1055 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 158% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND NOW FEB 2019:  2.830 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 22,416 CONTRACTS UP TO 504,639 WITH THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $22.95//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  STRONG  SIZED 10,210 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 9860 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 350 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 504,639. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN AN OUT OF THIS WORLD- SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 32,628 CONTRACTS: 22,416 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 10,210 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 32,628 CONTRACTS OR 3,262,800 OZ = 101.48 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS POWERFUL DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $22.95.

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5665 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY : 76,100 CONTRACTS OR 7,610,000 OZ  OR 236.70 TONNES (13 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5,854 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 236.70 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 236.70/2550 x 100% TONNES = 9.28% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     756.83  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 22,416 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($22.95) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 10,210 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 10,210 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN OUT OF THIS WORLD GAIN OF 32,628 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

10,210 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 22,416 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 101.48 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $22.95 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had:  90 notice(s) filed upon for 9000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY

SURPRISE: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY TODAY

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   792.45 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 792.45 tonnes.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3338 CONTRACTS from 217,484 UP TO 220,822  AND CLOSER T0 THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

2717 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MAY., 0 FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2717 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 3338 CONTRACTS TO THE 2717 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS GAIN  OF 6055  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 30.2745 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..AND NOW 2.830 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY.

 

 

RESULT: A POWERFUL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 25 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 2717 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.57 POINTS OR 0.20% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 285.92 POINTS OR 1.81%  /The Nikkei closed U[ 128.84 POINTS OR 0.160%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.14%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7230 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 55.56 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.00 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7230 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7253: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

i) CHINA/USA/Europe

 

 

China warns (threatens) that new USA tariffs will be ‘catastrophic” for global stocks

( zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

 

UK manufacturers are beginning to sound the alarm bell on a no deal BREXIT…they catastrophic events

( zerohedge)

ii)ITALY

Wow!! this is big…Salvini is gaining big time in popularity as he forms a broad coalition of eurosceptic groups. He is set to form the second biggest party in the European parliamentary elections held in May.

( zerohedge)

iii)Europe, China/USA
A good commentary from Daniel Lacalle as he explains why Europe has only 4 out of the top 50 technology companies and these 4 are suspect.  It is the huge red tape that hinders growth and a good reason why Britain is leaving
( Daniel Lacalle)

iv)UK  The pound is hit as 3 more Tory MP’s quit and join the “Independent Group”.  This may lead to an election as May’s minority government is getting less and less support

 

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

Russia

Very scary!! Russia is advancing in weaponry at an alarming pace. They now state that they will point weapons at the USA directly if it deploys missiles to Europe

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)VENEZUELA/USA

Border class imminent:

( zerohedge)

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Manly is 100% correct:  with respect to gold, secrecy and unaccountability are the policies of major central banks as they are desperate to throw out gold from the world financial system
( RonanManly)

ii)Graham Summers:

gold understands perfectly what is coming!!

( Graham Summers/Phoenix Research Capital)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

ii)Market data/ FOMC

This should be extremely gold bullish, but then we are dealing with crooked banks: almost all the clown Fed officials want a plan to stop their roll off of treasuries form the balance sheet.  This they want done by year end.

(courtesy, zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

The transfer of public assets in Illinois will not help.  Illinois is in one big mess:

( Mark Glennon/Wirepoints)

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)It is time for a new special prosecutor who will investigate the investigators

( Raul Meijer)

b)This is interesting and will probably had Kerosene Maxine hopping. Deutsche bank discussed extending a Trump loan maturity as they had fears of default as well as worrying about calling in loans on a sitting president.

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 22,416 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 504,639 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($22.95) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR THREE YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES., THE REASON FOR THE COLLAPSE IN OPEN INTEREST IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A POWERFUL SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 10,210 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 9860, FOR JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS AND FINALLY DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  10,210 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 32,628 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,210 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED AN UNBELIEVABLY SIZED 22,416 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:32,628 contracts OR 3,262,800  OZ OR 101.48 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of FEBRUARY and here the open interest stands at 678 contracts, and thus gaining 84 contracts. . We had 72 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we AGAIN GAINED ANOTHER UNBELIEVABLY STRONG 156 contracts or 15,600 additional oz (ADDITIONAL 0.4852 TONNES) will stand for delivery in this very active delivery month of February as they refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a sizable fiat bonus. The comex is out of gold!@! as the crooks scrounge around the comex looking for metal trying to put out fires elsewhere.

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after February is  March and here we gained 210 contracts to stand at 1787.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI ROSE by 19,181 contracts UP to 362,455 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 90 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 9000 OZ. (0.2799 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 3338 CONTRACTS FROM 217,484 DOWN TO 220,822(AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S POWERFUL OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A STRONG 25 CENT GAIN IN PRICING. (LOOKS LIKE THE BANKERS ARE NERVOUS AND ARE DESPERATE TO CUT THEIR SHORT POSITIONS)

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS 1 CONTRACT, HAVING LOST 0 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

.

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 11,916 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 87,344 CONTRACTS. AFTER MARCH, APRIL ADVANCES TO 248 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 30 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ADVANCED BY 14,503 CONTRACTS UP TO 92,289 CONTRACTS.

FIRST DAY NOTICE IS THURSDAY FEB 28.2019

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 6055 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 3684 AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2712 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  6055 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 25 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  213,570CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  364,503  contracts

comex gold volumes are getting extremely low as players just do not want to play in this casino.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

FEB 20 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
2250.50
oz
Scotia
70 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
90 notice(s)
 9000 OZ
(0.2799 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
588 contracts
(58800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,323 notices
1,032,300 OZ
32.108 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i Out of Scotia:  2250.50 oz  (70 kilobars)

 

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  2250.50 oz

we had 2  adjustments…
i) Out of Delaware:  10,022.469 oz was removed from the customer account and this entered the dealer account of Delaware
ii) Out of HSBC: 70,188.436 oz was removed from the dealer and this entered the customer account of HSBC and this should be deemed a settlement.

FOR THE FEB 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 90 contract(s) of which 8 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and xxx notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0xx notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEBRUARY/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,323) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (678 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (90 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,091,100 OZ OR 33.937 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of FEBRUARY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (10323 x 100 oz)  + {678)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (90 x 100 oz )which equals 1,091,100 oz standing OR 33.937 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY.

WE GAINED A MASSIVE 156 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,600 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. THE COMEX MUST BE VOID AS OUR BANKERS ARE SCOURING THE PLANET LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD./ THIS IS THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW THAT WE HAVE WITNESSED MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD. I CANNOT RECALL AT ANY TIME WITNESSING SUCH A MASSIVE GAIN IN GOLD OZ STANDING THIS LATE IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 21.264 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 33.937 TONNES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY

OF WHICH 32.108 TONNES OF GOLD HAVE ALREADY BEEN SERVED UPON SO FAR THIS MONTH.

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  683,646.964 oz or  21.264 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,219,262.995 oz 255.65 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON FEBRUARY 2019 TO THE  FEBRUARY 2018 COMEX GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FEB 1.2018: 20.07 TONNES OF GOLD STOOD FOR DELIVERY, BUT BY THE END OF MONTH ONLY 8.55 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 28 MONTHS 99 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

FEB INITIAL standings/SILVER

FEB 20 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
256,262.974 oz
CNT
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
587,790.800
oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 565 contracts

(2,825,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.26 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.61% of all official comex silver. (150.26 million/296 million)

 

i) Into CNT  587,790.800 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 587,790.800   oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of CNT::   3028.954 oz

ii) Out of Brinks:  253,234.02oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 256,362.974     oz

 

we had 0 adjustment..

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.807 million

total dealer + customer silver:  296.293 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the FEBRUARY 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR  NIL  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 565 x 5,000 oz = 2,825,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (1) and the number of notices served upon today (0x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEBRUARY/2019 contract month: 565(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB( 1) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 2,830,000 oz of silver standing for the FEBRUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS  NEGATING A FIAT BONUS

 

FOR COMPARISON SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH  FEB 2018 VS FEB 2019

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FEB 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 670,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  AT THE MONTH’S CONCLUSION WE HAD 2.035 MILLION OZ STAND AS WE WITNESSED QUEUE JUMPING ON A REGULAR BASIS AT THE SILVER COMEX.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  142,867 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 156,517 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 156,517 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 782 million OZ  111.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.87% (FEB 20/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -.86% to NAV (FEB 20 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.87%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.57/TRADING 13.07/DISCOUNT 3.71

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

FEB 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: WE HAD ANOTHER PAPER RAID (WITHDRAWAL) OF 2.04 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES/

FEB 13:/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER RAID BY OUR CROOKED BANKERS AS THEY WITHDREW ANOTHER 2.23 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.89 TONNES

FEB 12: WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO WHACK OUR PRECIOUS METAL TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.00/THE CROOKS WITHDREW ANOTHER HUGE 6.59 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.29 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP 35 CENTS/ANOTHER PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 811.82 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 813.29 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i)A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.37 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM THE GLD AND THEN ii) a A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.40 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $.65: A HUGE HUGE MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87..SO FAR IN JANUARY: 28.56 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $6.15/A HUGE ADDITION OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.64 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $17.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

jAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70?: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP 50 CENTS: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD UP A TINY $.85 A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE FRAUDULENT GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

FEB 20/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 792.45 tonnes

*IN LAST 546 TRADING DAYS: 141.60 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 446 TRADING DAYS: A NET 18.35 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: A DEPOSIT OF 423,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ

FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 306.935 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT TH SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999  MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000  OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ.

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 129,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY  RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG DEPOSIT OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 INTO THE SLV INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.597 MILLION OZ.

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.408 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.659 MILLION OZ/

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: A HUGE LOSS OF 938,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.179 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/SLV IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.189 MILLION OZ/

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/NO DOUBT THE MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF PAPER SILVER WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.895 MILLION OZ./INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110 MILLION OZ/

JAN 16/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.158 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.005 MILLION OZ/

JAN 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 469,000 OZ FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.163 MILLION OZ/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

 

 

FEB 20/2019:

 

Inventory 308.296 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.20/ and libor 6 month duration 2.74

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .54

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.50%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.89

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.39

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Global Financial Crisis II Is Upon Us – Jim Willie Interviews Mark O’Byrne

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Global Financial Crisis II Is Upon Us – Jim Willie Interviews Mark O’Byrne

– Jim Willie interviews Mark O’Byrne of GoldCore about the slowly erupting Global Financial Crisis II and the importance of being financially prepared but also “psychologically prepared”

– “Not a single thing has been fixed” and vitally important people prepare now for the “next phase” of the currency wars and the global financial crisis which is set to impact financial markets, stocks, bonds, banks (what happened to Wells Fargo last week?) and bankrupt governments in the UK, EU and US

gif demo2
Watch Interview Here

– The Global Monetary RESET will see the “Third World” dollar sharply devalued and paper wealth and assets including stocks, corporate and government bonds become much more volatile and risky

– US Treasuries are no longer a risk free asset as the United States will either “formally default or restructure” the $22 trillion US debt and the $100 trillion to $200 trillion of unfunded government liabilities

– Gold coins and bars are the primary store of value in the coming Currency Wars and the Cashless Society, especially given the likelihood of COMEX gold defaults and collapse of the LBMA unallocated gold market says Mark O’Byrne

– Jim Willie on the coming radical changes in the global gold market and reversion to physical price discovery and new pricing involving premiums on physical gold (kilo gold bars) in major gold trading, storage and liquidity centres such as Zurich, Mumbai, Singapore, Shanghai etc

– Asset allocation and the case for having much higher allocations to gold and silver as safe haven dollar and Treasuries are questioned due to the “Third World finances” of the U.S.  Jim Willie recommends higher allocations to physical precious metals and says tongue in cheek, “more like 40% in gold and the rest in silver”

– Key facts about owning gold and silver coins and bars, premiums on gold and silver bullion, the safest vaults and the safest jurisdictions or countries in the world

– Importance of having actual gold & silver coins and bars in your possession or having outright legal ownership of physical bullion in allocated and segregated storage, in bailment and in your name

– Global Financial Crisis II is “going to be much, much bigger” … prepare now

Jim Willie of the Golden Jackass Interview of GoldCore’s Mark O’Byrne via and courtesy of Gadfly TV

 

Watch Our Latest Videos Here

 

News and Commentary

Gold Surges on Elevated Geopolitical Uncertainty (WSJ.com)

PRECIOUS-Palladium eyes $1,500/oz in record surge; gold hits 10-mth high (CNBC.com)

Gold rallies to a 10-month high as trade-talk continuation captures market (MarketWatch.com)

Gold hits 10-month peak on hopes for U.S.-China trade talks (Reuters.com)

Fed’s Williams says new economic outlook necessary for rate hikes (Reuters.com)

The Utterly Unbelievable Scale of U.S. Debt Right Now (NationalPost.com)

Modern Monetary Madness (GoldSeek.com)

Bears could be in for a ‘great few weeks’ as S&P 500 hits a wall (MarketWatch.com)

A drop in U.S. stocks may be fast and furious, according to Elliott Wave theory (MarketWatch.com)

UK Manufacturers Deny “Scaremongering”, Fear “Catastrophic” No-Deal Brexit (ZeroHedge.com)

Listen on iTunes, Blubrry & SoundCloud  & watch on YouTube above

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

19 Feb: USD 1,329.55, GBP 1028.81 & EUR 1,175.72 per ounce
18 Feb: USD 1,323.95, GBP 1025.13 & EUR 1,169.58 per ounce
15 Feb: USD 1,319.00, GBP 1027.64 & EUR 1,168.17 per ounce
14 Feb: USD 1,305.65, GBP 1017.49 & EUR 1,158.50 per ounce
13 Feb: USD 1,311.15, GBP 1017.45 & EUR 1,158.79 per ounce
12 Feb: USD 1,311.60, GBP 1021.21 & EUR 1,163.00 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

19 Feb: USD 15.78, GBP 12.22 & EUR 13.99 per ounce
18 Feb: USD 15.76, GBP 12.19 & EUR 13.91 per ounce
15 Feb: USD 15.67, GBP 12.23 & EUR 13.90 per ounce
14 Feb: USD 15.58, GBP 12.17 & EUR 13.83 per ounce
13 Feb: USD 15.69, GBP 12.13 & EUR 13.85 per ounce
12 Feb: USD 15.81, GBP 12.30 & EUR 14.01 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– 7 Major Flaws Of The Global Financial System – Excellent Infographic
– The Case for Gold In 2019 – The Economist
– Invest In Gold As a Hedge In Cashless Society – Ex IMF Rogoff
– Valentine’s Day Record Spending Due to Gold Love Trade?
– Gold Prices In Pounds and Euros Gain More as Economic Growth Falters in the UK and EU
– Irish Investors Storing Their Gold Bullion In Ireland
– 

– Large Gold Bullion Shipment Moves From London to Dublin Gold Vaults As Brexit Concerns Deepen
– Store Gold Bullion In Safest Ways – Learning from Tragic Venezuela Today
– The Vital Importance of Gold As A Strategic Asset In 2019</strong

Executive Director
GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
Manly is 100% correct:  with respect to gold, secrecy and unaccountability are the policies of major central banks as they are desperate to throw out gold from the world financial system
(courtesy RonanManly)

Ronan Manly: Unaccountability with Australia’s gold is typical of central banking

 Section: 

11:05a ET Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Elaborating on his interview with Russia Today this week about the refusal of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England to account for Australia’s supposed gold reserves —

http://www.gata.org/node/18881

— Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly details how secrecy and unaccountability with gold are actually the policies of major central banks in their longstanding campaign to drive the monetary metal out of the world financial system.

Manly notes that this campaign is well documented at GATA’s internet site.

His analysis is headlined “Australia’s Gold at the Bank of England — Extended Q&A” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/australias-gold-at-the-ban…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end





iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

Graham Summers:

gold understands perfectly what is coming!!

(courtesy Graham Summers/Phoenix Research Capital)

Gold Knows What Is Coming… And It’s Not Pretty

Gold continues to soar, up 14% in the last six months and now challenging its 2018 highs.

GPC22019.png

If you’re looking to understand why Gold continues to rally, you don’t have to look any further than the political arena where more and more politicians are calling for wealth taxes and cash grabs.

Gold knows that these folks are not going to limit their plans to the super wealthy… it knows that eventually the calls will be for a tax on NET wealth…which is why it continues to move higher.

Gold ALSO knows that Central Banks are trapped… and will be forced to turn on the money printing presses shortly.

In the last week, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve have ALL abandoned any pretense of normalizing policy.

While they have yet to start easing just yet, it’s now only a matter of time.

Gold is rallying as investors look for a safe haven that CANNOT be devalued by Central Bank or stolen by the political class. Gold knows that BOTH of those items (theft of capital and devaluation of currencies) is only going to get worse going forward.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Fed plans to both seize and STEAL savings during the next crisis/ recession.

 

END

 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7230/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7254   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 5.57 POINTS OR 0.20% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 285.92 POINTS OR 1.81%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed  UP 128.84 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.59/Euro FALLS TO 1.1337

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.76/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.66 and Brent: 66.00

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP   /OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.10%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.83% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.20%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.73: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.77

3k Gold at $1343.55 silver at:16.05   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.74

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.76 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0067 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1351 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.10%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.63% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.97%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3150

 

Global Stocks Hit 4 Month High As US Futures Drop Ahead Of Fed Minutes; Yuan Soars

World stocks hit a four-month high on – what else – hopes of progress in trade talks between the United States and China, even as US equity futures drifted lower, offsetting a rise in European and Asian stocks as traders awaited the release of minutes from the latest Fed meeting. The dollar snapped a 4-day losing streak while the yuan jumped after a Bloomberg report that Trump is asking China to keep its currency stable (and hence less market-determined).

The bullish mood was boosted after Donald Trump said negotiations with China were going well and suggested he was open to extending the deadline to complete them beyond March 1 which is anything but “magical.”

European automakers led an advance in the Stoxx 600 Index, which erased Tuesday’s drop, even as miner Glencore fell on lower-than-expected earnings, while Lloyds rose after it unveiled a 1.75 billion pounds ($2.3 billion) buyback plan. UK. grocer J Sainsbury plunged on antitrust objections to its planned takeover of Walmart’s Asda.

Meanwhile, European banks continued to be pressured by expectations that the ECB will restart a program to provide long-term cheap loans, or TLTROs, to banks to boost a faltering economy, depressing yields, while on Monday the BOJ flagged its readiness to ease further.

Earlier, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific ex-Japan rose as much as 1.1% to mark its highest levels since Oct. 2. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained as much as 1.3 percent to six-month highs, while Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s index recovered to levels last seen in early October. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.6 percent to two-month highs.

Boosted by fresh dovish sentiment, emerging-market stocks and currencies jumped the most in three weeks amid optimism that trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing will lead to a deal. The South African rand and Turkish lira bucked the rally.

The yuan led the advance among developing markets, bolstering its Asian peers, after Bloomberg reported that the U.S. is asking China to keep the value of its currency stable as part of the negotiations. The onshore Yuan strengthened as much as 439 pips on Wed to close at 6.7236/USD, its biggest intra-day gain in more than a month, and the highest since the end of Jan, and the biggest rise since Jan 10th. The offshore yuan was last trading at 6.7265 after rising as high as 7.164.

And speaking of China’s currency, Premier Li said that China has not and will not change monetary policy; will not resort to ‘flood-like’ stimulus. RRR cut in January reflected that there is sufficient room for cuts, adding that increasing bill financing and short-term loans may create the potential for risks.

Elsewhere in FX, the dollar snapped a four-day losing streak before the release of Fed January minutes, rising 0.2 percent against the yen after Japan recorded its biggest annual drop in exports in January for more than two years, and on recent dovish Bank of Japan signals.

The pound slipped as Prime Minister Theresa May headed back to Brussels in a last-ditch attempt to save her Brexit deal and as three Conservatives quit to join a new party, while the euro lacked a clear sense of direction after ECB’s Praet said a decision on TLTROs may not be made at the March meeting. The rand dropped before Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s budget speech on Wednesday.

In rates, European bonds mostly edged up, but Italian notes fell while US Treasuries were unchanged after some mixed trading earlier.

In the latest Brexit news, PM May is reportedly to present the EU with fresh legal proposals to break the Irish backstop deadlock and which will hopefully convince Brexiteers to support her deal. In related news, a spokesperson said PM May and Brexit Ministers updated cabinet on Brexit and that the UK is still looking to reopen the withdrawal agreement. Meanwhile, in a shocking development, UK Tory MPs Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston have resigned from the Conservative Party and joined the Independent Group; talkRadio’s Kempsell confirms, with the news sending cable to session lows.

GBP

Prior to this, ITV’s Peston tweets that if, as he expects, four Tory MPs quit the party today to become independent, PM May’s minority government will become even more of a minority, with less grips on the Commons, so a general election moves nearer.

Finally, UK Chancellor Hammond said a no-deal Brexit would be mutual calamity for UK and EU, while he also noted that the most urgent task is to reach an agreement that will protect trading relationship with EU. Furthermore, Hammond said the Malthouse initiative is a valuable effort to allay backstop concerns in the future but added that EU will not consider a replacement to the backstop now.

Looking at key trading catalysts, Bloomberg notes that as the U.S. and China continuing tough negotiations toward a trade deal, focus has shifted to a key campaign promise made by President Donald Trump, namely addressing Beijing’s periodic devaluation of the yuan. Investors will also be preoccupied by the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve later on Wednesday and from the European Central Bank a day later, and they’ll have a glut of German data to contend with toward the end of the week.

“At the start of the year with the upshoot in equities, everything was sort of moving together,” Peter Borish, chief strategist at Quad Capital LLC, told Bloomberg TV in New York. “We are now starting to not see that and that is always the first sign of warning signals in the market place that it might be getting ready for a correction.”

Elsewhere, oil prices hovered near 2019 highs, supported by OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, but further gains were capped by soaring U.S. production and expectations of an economic slowdown. International Brent crude futures stood at $66.30 per barrel, having hit a three-month high of $66.83 per barrel earlier this week. Gold traded at the highest since April and palladium soared to a record as a shortage started to bite.

Expected data include mortgage applications and FOMC minutes. Analog Devices, CVS, Synopsys and Cheesecake Factory are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,775.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 369.58
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 158.66
  • MXAPJ up 1.1% to 519.33
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 21,431.49
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,613.47
  • Hang Seng Index up 1% to 28,514.05
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2,761.22
  • Sensex up 1% to 35,688.98
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 6,096.49
  • Kospi up 1.1% to 2,229.76
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.098%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1353
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to 2.429%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.203%
  • Brent futures down 0.5% to $66.13/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,345.24
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed to 96.56

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The U.S. is said to have asked China to keep its currency stable as part of a new trade deal, a move aimed at discouraging officials in Beijing from devaluing the yuan to offset the impact of American tariffs. That request is at odds with years of global pressure on China, from the Group of 20 economies in particular, to move toward a free-floating currency
  • British government sees Theresa May’s meeting on Wednesday with EC President Juncker in Brussels as a crucial chance to get legally binding changes to the so- called Irish border backstop
  • Joan Ryan becomes the eighth U.K. Labour MP to quit the party, accusing Leader Jeremy Corbyn of “presiding over a culture of anti-Jewish racism and hatred of Israel,” according to a tweet from the lawmaker
  • Corbyn’s closest ally Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, says the Labour leader must listen to critics x
  • Theresa May faces many problems as she tries to nail down a divorce agreement with the European Union but one looms over them all: pro-Brexit Tories do not trust her.
  • Japanese exports fell in January as shipments to China tumbled, adding to signs slowing global demand is weighing on the export-dependent economy
  • President Trump said he is no rush to conclude a nuclear deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un because he has a strong relationship with the North Korean leader and U.S. sanctions against the country remain in place
  • ECB officials will discuss new long-term loans for banks shortly, even though it’s unclear yet whether a decision will be taken, according to Executive Board member Peter Praet
  • The British government sees May’s meeting on Wednesday with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker as a crucial chance to get legally binding changes to the so-called Irish border backstop, which has proved the biggest obstacle to getting a Brexit deal
  • Indonesia’s finance ministry is studying various forms of incentives for sovereign bond holders, including lower tax for those holding the securities for a longer period

Asian stocks traded somewhat indecisively following the cautious gains seen on Wall St. ahead of this week’s key events including FOMC minutes and US-China trade talks. ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) were mixed with Australia dragged lower by continued underperformance in Consumer Staples after Woolworth shares slumped more than 5% post-earnings, while Tokyo stocks were propped up as the impact of a weaker currency eclipsed the concerns from the steepest decline in Japanese Exports for more than 2 years. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) were also varied as the mainland lagged despite the PBoC announcement of its first liquidity injection since before the Lunar New Year, as the amount was a relatively paltry CNY 20bln and with participants also kept tentative ahead of upcoming senior level trade discussions between US and China. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued with price action contained by an indecisive risk tone in the region and after having recently hit resistance at 153.00, while the absence of the BoJ in the market also contributed to the lacklustre trade.

Top Asian News

  • Zhenjiang Said to Be Mulled for Local Debt Resolution Test Unit
  • Hong Kong to Take Back Part of Biggest Golf Course for Homes
  • Baht Reaches Highest Since 2013 Amid Broader Dollar Weakness
  • India’s Giant IT Industry Rode a Rally in Global Tech Spending

Major indices in Europe have somewhat waned off earlier highs [Euro Stoxx 50 Unch] following a relatively indecisive Asia-Pac session. Sectors are mixed with outperformance in industrials given the price action in the base metal complex, while energy names marginally lag their peers. In terms of notable movers, Sainsbury’s (-16.4%) shares plumbed the depths after the supermarket was dealt a blow by the UK CMA, which stated that the proposed Sainsbury’s-Asda has extensive competition concerns, whilst adding that the two companies will have to shut a significant number of stores or face rejection. The companies now have until 13th March to respond to the CMA’s findings, with a final report by the CMA to be issued by 30th April. Elsewhere, Swedbank (-11.1%) has become the latest financial institute embroiled in the Danske Bank (-1.0%) money laundering scandal, following reports of the Co. being linked to USD 4.3bln in illicit transfers. Finally, regarding earnings-driven stocks, Glencore (-0.5%) gave up initial gains as indices came off highs, while Lloyds (+3.9%) maintained its positive at the top of the FTSE amid a GBP 1.75bln share buyback programme alongside a dividend hike.

Top European News

  • Brexit Jobs Boom Has a Flip Side That’s Holding the Economy Back
  • Lloyds Unveils $2.3 Billion Buyback Ahead of U.K. Turmoil
  • Glencore Plans New Buyback as Trading Profit Disappoints
  • Daimler Joins Jumbo Euro Corporate-Bond Rush as Spreads Tumble

In FX, the Greenback has regained some poise after its relatively pronounced downturn late yesterday amidst uncharacteristically dovish comments from Fed’s Mester regarding balance sheet run-offs, as she intimated a willingness to back an end to QT by or even before the end of 2019, albeit keeping options open for a 25 bp hike later this year. However, the index remains depressed and not far off sub-96.500 lows in anticipation that the upcoming FOMC minutes will reiterate the shift in policy guidance to a pause in normalisation and patience before any further adjustments.

  • AUD/JPY/NZD/GBP – All on the backfoot vs the Usd, or paring gains to be more precise, as Aud/Usd eases back towards 0.7150 from circa 0.7175 at best in wake of moderately softer than forecast Q4 Aussie wage data overnight. Meanwhile, a bigger than expected Japanese trade deficit due to the worst export showing since October 2016 compounded post-BoJ Governor Kuroda Jpy weakness as it slips a bit further towards 111.00, but again could glean some traction from option expiry interest given 1.1 bn rolling off between 110.75-85 at the NY cut. Indeed, the Kiwi and Pound are marginally underperforming as Nzd/Usd hovers near the bottom end of a 0.6885-63 range and the Aud/Nzd cross consolidates recovery gains above 1.0400, while Cable runs out of steam ahead of 1.3100 having spiked from sub-1.2900 through 1.3000 in double quick time on Tuesday and topping out around 1.3075 ahead of today’s UK PM May-EU Juncker showdown later today.
  • CAD/EUR – The Loonie continues to reap the most from pre-Fed minutes US Dollar defensive positioning and remains close to multi-week peaks above 1.3200 even though crude prices have encountered more offers/resistance around 2019 highs, while the single currency has formed a firmer base over 1.1300 having closed above a 1.1313 Fib and now eyeing another resistance level at 1.1362 for a stronger bullish technical signal.
  • EM – Contrasting performances for the Yuan and Rand, as the former draws momentum from a stronger PBoC fix, fresh liquidity and positivity surrounding US-China trade talks to test 6.7200 levels vs the Usd, but pre-budget jitters hit the latter with the Zar down to 14.1500 at one stage.

In commodities, Brent (-0.4%) and WTI (-0.3%) prices are subdued after being rangebound throughout the Asia session where WTI reached 2019 highs of USD 56.39.bbl, as markets await today’s FOMC minutes and the beginning of high-level US-China trade talks tomorrow with USTR Lighthizer. The EIA forecasts that US total shale regions oil production will average 8.3938mln barrels in March, which is 84mln barrels above February’s estimate of 8.31mln barrels. Separately, there have been reports of a fire at a PDVSA crude pumping station, which has a 300k BPD capacity; although, as details surrounding the fire are sparse the impact on production is currently unclear. Looking ahead, API’s weekly inventory numbers are to be released today due to the US market holiday on Monday, market expectations are that US crude oil inventories increased over the prior week by 3.1mln barrels. Note, some abnormality may be observed today in WTI trading due to the expiration of the March WTO contract. Gold (+0.1%) is trading within a thin USD 5/oz range, as the yellow metal follows cautiousness seen in the dollar ahead of today’s FOMC. Elsewhere, spot-Palladium has convincingly moved above the USD 1500/oz level reaching USD 1504.46/oz; as the metals 7-month rally, which has been driven by a supply shortage, continues. Separately, German inspection frim TUV SUD has stated that it will no longer certify Vale owned tailings dams, following a Vale owned dam bursting last month.

Looking at the day ahead now, while there’s no data due in the US, we will get the FOMC meeting minutes from the January meeting. Expect the minutes to shed more light on how the Fed’s domestic and global growth outlook may be evolving and the lens through which the Committee may view incoming inflation data in the near term. Expect some focus on the balance sheet normalisation program too, which may reiterate Brainard’s view that the Fed will likely end the roll-off of maturing securities by year-end. Away from that, we’re due to hear from the ECB’s Praet this morning and Fed’s Kaplan this evening, while the US-China trade meetings and meeting between UK PM May and EC’s Juncker should also be a big focus for the market.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -3.7%
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Last month I highlighted the strange occurrence where over the course of a week my Spotify account was seemingly hacked as obscure French/Moroccan music was mysteriously added to my library. If you missed that one you can review it here . Well today it’s our turn to hack into your Spotify account as DB has just launched a new podcast series called Podzept. We have a selection of articles at our launch including one from me on “What the history of populism can teach us today”. They are available on Spotify, Apple Podcast and Stitcher. Feel free to search for Deutsche Bank Research, Podzept or simply follow the links to these sites on this page http://www.dbresearch.com/podzept . We’d be interested to hear from readers (and listeners) whether this is an interesting medium on which to receive research. On public sites like this there is a regulatory restriction on the type of research we can provide so the EMR is at this stage unlikely to be a candidate. However if there is large enough demand for it we’ll look into how we might be able to do it in the future. So all thoughts on whether some research works as a podcast are welcome.

Markets are quiet this week so no excuse to not download Podzept. Nevertheless, one gets the sense that we are all on tenterhooks to a certain degree, waiting for what could be major developments on trade and the now infamous S232 report on autos and US national security. One of our US economists Justin Weidner did some digging last night into the timeline from last year’s 232 steel report. That report was submitted to the President on January 11th, but was not released to the public (in its redacted form) until February 16th. The President subsequently made a determination on March 8. So if history repeats itself it would suggest that (official) details about the 232 auto report won’t come out until mid-March, or whenever they are done redacting the private information.

However, history may not repeat itself but it’s interesting that Mr Trump has yet to make any comments (even via tweets). This could mean one of three things; a) the above timeline is reasonable, b) the results are market friendly, c) Mr Trump and the administration are being careful not to escalate trade tensions at such a delicate stage of the China talks. Unfortunately, I’ve no idea which is closest to reality but it feels like we’re all now constantly looking over our shoulder with this report lurking on someone’s desk somewhere. It’s very important as with European growth so low it could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in terms of a recession if it goes the wrong way.

On the other main trade front, news flow has the potential to pick up pace with meetings continuing between the US and China today. Mnuchin and Lighthizer will then join talks with China Vice-Premier Liu He again tomorrow. After Europe closed last night, headlines emerged that the US is asking China to keep the yuan stable as part of the negotiations between the world’s two largest economies to ensure devaluations aren’t used to offset tariff increases. The same article on Bloomberg suggested the two countries are discussing how to address currency policy in a “Memorandum of Understanding” that would form the basis of a deal that ultimately will have to be approved by Mr Trump and Xi Jinping. On the positive side, this story hints that talks are progressing. However, later in the session, top White House economist Kevin Hassett told reporters that there is still a lot of progress to make. The overall feeling is that it is 1 step forward, three-quarters of a step back at the moment. So positive momentum but still fragile. Before we review markets, the other main event today is the latest FOMC minutes. See the day ahead at the end for a preview of what to expect.

Steady incremental US positivity seems to be the theme at the moment with Europe a little more in limbo. Last night the S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ closed +0.15%, +0.03% and +0.19% respectively. The retail sector outperformed, gaining +0.65%, largely thanks to a bumper earnings report from Walmart (+2.21%), which showed their best holiday season performance in a decade. The report from the world’s largest retail store provided some comfort after last week’s terrible retail sales report for December, as it looks increasingly likely that the poor data was an aberration. Commodity markets were also in focus, as the S&P 500 materials index was the best performing major subindex on the day, up +0.58%. Copper (+2.63%) and gold (+1.07%) both rallied, helping mining firms, aided by the weaker dollar which depreciated -0.41%. Gold hit a 10-month high and is now within 2 percentage points of its highest level in 5 years.

Prior to this, Europe had reversed much of the good progress made on Monday with the STOXX 600 ending -0.22%. High yield spreads closed +3bps wider in the US and flat in Europe, while in bond markets both Treasuries (-2.9bps) and Bunds (-0.4bps) firmed up a bit, which was in contrast to BTPs, which sold-off +2.3bps. Disappointing data (more on that below) appeared to be the catalyst.

Overnight in Asia, markets are trading mixed with the Nikkei (+0.38%), Hang Seng (+0.66%) and Kospi (+0.90%) all up while the Shanghai Comp (-0.15%) is heading lower in directionless trading. China’s onshore yuan is up +0.56% this morning likely on the story above that the US are demanding that China keep its currency stable. However, most EM currencies are generally trading strong against the greenback this morning. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.07%) are trading flattish. In terms of data, Japan’s January trade balance was released overnight with exports declining -8.4% yoy (vs. -5.7% yoy expected) and imports at -0.6% yoy (vs. -3.5% yoy expected) leading to an adjusted trade balance of JPY -370.0bn (vs. JPY -150.7bn expected). The data highlighted that Japan’s exports have now declined for two months in a row for the first time since 2016 and sent the Japanese yen weaker (-0.18%).

Meanwhile, the latest on Brexit is that UK PM May is due to meet with EC President Juncker in Brussels this evening at 5.30pm GMT in what was being billed as a “significant” meeting according to the UK Government yesterday. Bloomberg quoted a source as saying that the meeting is expected to be a “stock-take” of the progress both sides have made ahead of Attorney General Cox potentially setting out his legal position on the backstop tomorrow. Yesterday, we got reaffirmation that the EU will not reopen the withdrawal agreement with the UK and will not accept a time limit on the Irish backstop. So, little sign of any softening of the EU approach, which isn’t a great surprise given next week’s parliamentary vote, which is still targeted for before February 27th. Sterling rallied +1.08% last night for its best session since November, when it rallied +1.93% on positive Brexit momentum and a broadly weaker dollar.

As for other snippets of news, ECB Vice-President Guindos continued the mantra of a more dovish way of thinking between the ECB Council, saying yesterday that policy makers are analysing the slowdown and have a large range of tools to respond with, which includes changing the language on forward guidance. Guindos did add that this wouldn’t happen before a “thorough analysis”. Elsewhere, over in the US, we learned that Bernie Sanders was seeking to run for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Expect there to be more and more newsflow picking up ahead of the next presidential election with tax policy in particular becoming more of talking point. Yesterday, Bloomberg ran a story concerning Elizabeth Warren’s proposal for a universal child care plan funded by a tax on the ultra-wealthy. This higher-tax agenda from the left looks set to run a lot further.

Finally, in terms of the data that was out yesterday, in the UK we saw the unemployment rate hold steady in December at 4.0% as expected, while headline wages missed slightly (+3.4% 3m/yoy vs. +3.5% expected), albeit offset by an in-line core wages reading (+3.4% 3m/yoy). The data was largely in line with BoE forecasts and continues to underscore the divergence between soft survey data and the firming labour market. In Germany, the headline February ZEW survey reading disappointed at +15.0 (vs. +20.0 expected). That represented a drop of 12.6pts from January. Meanwhile, in Italy, as noted at the top, both industrial sales (-7.3% yoy from +0.5% previously) and orders (-5.3% yoy from -2.2% previously) data was very soft.

In the US, the only noteworthy data release was the NAHB home builders market index, which rose +4pts to 62, its biggest jump since 2017 and a potential signal that the real estate sector is bottoming out. A reading above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. The S&P 500 homebuilders index outperformed yesterday, gaining +0.79%.

On the Fedspeak front, NY Fed President Williams said that it would take “a different outlook either for growth or inflation” for him to support additional rate hikes. This isn’t a huge surprise given his previous comments, but it does further solidify the view that policy is on hold for now unless there is a major upside or downside surprise. Cleveland Fed President Mester said that she supports ending the balance sheet runoff by year-end, endorsing the view articulated by Governor Brainard last week. This is certainly a topic that will be discussed more this year, and maybe in the FOMC minutes due later today.

Looking at the day ahead now, the early release this morning comes from Germany with the January PPI report. Later this morning we’ll get the February CBI survey in the UK before the February consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area is out this afternoon. While there’s no data due in the US, we will get the FOMC meeting minutes from the January meeting. Our US economists expect the minutes to shed more light on how the Fed’s domestic and global growth outlook may be evolving and the lens through which the Committee may view incoming inflation data in the near term. Expect some focus on the balance sheet normalisation program too, which our colleagues expect to reiterate Brainard’s view that the Fed will likely end the roll-off of maturing securities by year-end. Away from that, we’re due to hear from the ECB’s Praet this morning and Fed’s Kaplan this evening, while the US-China trade meetings and meeting between UK PM May and EC’s Juncker should also be a big focus for the market.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.57 POINTS OR 0.20% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 285.92 POINTS OR 1.81%  /The Nikkei closed U[ 128.84 POINTS OR 0.160%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.14%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7230 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 55.56 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.00 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7230 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7253: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

i) CHINA/USA/EUROPE

China warns (threatens) that new USA tariffs will be ‘catastrophic” for global stocks

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Warns New US Tariffs Will Be “Catastrophic” For Global Stocks

Chinese state-run newspaper the Global Times warned – or perhaps threatened – late Tuesday that failed trade negotiations would have dire consequences for global stocks.

The threat of a market catastrophe has pigeonholed the US into striking a deal with Beijing, the report suggests although many are confident that the situation is flipped.

“[Trump’s] words further stoked the stock markets of the US, which reached the highest in two months and so increased pressure on the Trump administration to close the deal with China,” said the Global Times in an Op-Ed, adding that if the Trump team “imposes more tariffs on Chinese products while China responds with fiercer countermeasures,” it would “be a catastrophic strike to global stock markets.”

“In terms of avoiding such blows, the Trump administration is probably the most pressured,” the Op-Ed continues. “Thus in general, by the end of the trade negotiations, China and the US have become more psychologically equal” (according to the state-run outlet). As a result, “both sides would eventually lose,” the Times warned.

Why China’s implicit threat? Perhaps because, as Shard’s Bill Blain noted earlier today, at least in the context of its economy, China is already losing the trade war, and therefore has little to lose by escalating the war of words. This is what Blain said overnight:

The recent data highlights the Chinese economy may be slowing faster than XI can maintain his grip – he’s weaker than ever before. (Raising one scenario threat of a long-drawn out period of uncertainty if he is marginalised/deposed and a power struggle follows. That could be very destabilising and disruptive for the Occidental economies desperate to sell the China!)

We reckon XI knows he’s out of time and has to settle – handing Trump a critical victory. Long-term the US-China tech-war is difficult to call. Trump is determined to garner payback for China IP theft, and its difficult to imagine the rest of Asia adopting Chinese tech systems if they lose the current trade war to the US. However, you can’t just undo years of China tech development. My techy contacts tell me Huawai’s boasts about the US’ inability to close them is partial bluff and bluster – it’s not as advanced or robust as it claims, plus the US is going to insist on wrecking it – which could prove another long-term friction point.

The next question is how much of a favorable outcome the market has already priced in. Yesterday the S&P 500 rose modestly after President Trump suggested that the two largest economies might have more time to hammer out a deal without raising tariffs by the March 1 deadline, however it gave up much of the gains into the close suggesting that all good news may now be priced in..

Meanwhile, a Chinese trade delegation is currently in Washington D.C. this week for the latest round of trade negotiations, however with the March 1 deadline a little more than a week away, signs of any tangible progress are sorely lacking.

And speaking of China’s economic context, the world’s most populous economy is facing an accelerating slowdown in export growth in coming months according to Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu, who notes that the rush to buy up goods in advance of possible tariff increases is now over.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

UK manufacturers are beginning to sound the alarm bell on a no deal BREXIT…they catastrophic events

(courtesy zerohedge)

UK Manufacturers Deny “Scaremongering”, Fear “Catastrophic” No-Deal Brexit

While ‘Project Fear’ runs rampant through the British media – regurgitating government-sanctioned propaganda to the masses to put pressure on hardline Brexiteers – the head of the country’s main manufacturing association said on Tuesday that Britain faces the “catastrophic prospect” of a no-deal Brexit next month due to the selfishness of some politicians and chaotic parliamentary proceedings.

As Reuters reports, the strong warning from Make UK, previously known as the EEF, comes as Japanese carmaker Honda is expected to say it is preparing to shut its main UK plant with a loss of 3,500 jobs.

Nissan earlier this month canceled plans to build its X-Trail sport utility vehicle in Britain, mostly blaming “business reasons” but also citing Brexit uncertainty.

Make UK’s chair, Judith Hackitt, said in remarks ahead of the group’s annual conference…

“Let me be clear … for those hard Brexiteers who accuse us of scaremongering. This is very real and very serious,”

“The clock has almost run down and it is now essential that the pantomime in parliament ends.”

Britain’s parliament overwhelmingly rejected the transition deal that May negotiated with the EU and time is running out to avoid a disruptive no-deal Brexit on March 29 which would lead to the re-imposition of customs checks on British exports.

“Some of our politicians have put selfish political ideology ahead of the national interest and people’s livelihoods and left us facing the catastrophic prospect of leaving the EU next month with no deal,” Hackitt said.

British manufacturers are facing a global slowdown as well as Brexit uncertainty. Official data last week showed their output fell by the most in over five years in the final quarter of 2018.

“It’s a big shock,” said David Bailey, a professor of industrial strategy at Aston University.

“But it’s not a surprise. Many of us have been warning for several years of the risks to UK automotive over Brexit, that we needed to nail down the uncertainty as soon as possible.”

As The FT reports, Ford said last week it had repeatedly urged the government not to leave the EU without a deal, in response to reports it had warned Theresa May it could move production overseas.

“Such a situation would be catastrophic for the UK auto industry and Ford’s manufacturing operations in the country,” the carmaker said, adding it would take “whatever action is necessary to preserve the competitiveness of our European business”.

Some 49 percent of 429 manufacturers surveyed for Make UK said a no-deal Brexit would make Britain unattractive, compared with 28 percent who said Britain would still be an attractive location, with bigger companies more likely to express concerns.

end

ITALY

Wow!! this is big…Salvini is gaining big time in popularity as he forms a broad coalition of eurosceptic groups. He is set to form the second biggest party in the European parliamentary elections held in May.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Anti-EU Salvini Set To Emerge As Biggest Winner In EU Parliament Elections

Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s efforts to undermine the EU status quo by rallying a broad coalition of eurosceptic groups during spring elections for the European Parliament are set to pay off big time, according to the first forecast of the expected results released by the chamber on Tuesday.

Salvini

Matteo Salvini

According to the polling, which was cited by the FT, Salvini’s League Party is expected to make some of the most striking gains in the May vote, possibly becoming the second-largest party in the assembly after Germany’s center right Christian Democratic Union.

Mr Salvini’s League is on course to dominate in Italy by winning 32 per cent of the vote and 27 seats, according to the poll. If so, it would be the second-biggest party in the chamber after Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union, which is forecast to hold 29 seats, down from 34 in the last election in 2014. The CDU is a mainstay of the European People’s party, the parliament’s main centre-right group. The EPP is predicted to slip from 217 seats to 183 seats, while the centre-left Social Democrat grouping is projected to lose almost one-third of its seats — from 186 to 135.

In total, Eurosceptic parties are expected to win 153 seats in the chamber. Though they control the same number now, their share of the votes will climb as the total number of seats in the chamber falls to 705 from 751 to account for the UK’s departure. In addition to Salvini’s League, the Eurosceptic faction in the EUP includes Poland’s Law and Justice party, Italy’s Five Star Movement and France’s Rassemblement National. Law and Justice and France’s RN have pledged to join forces in the coming parliament. Other Eurosceptic parties including Spain’s far-right Vox and the Dutch Forum for Democracy are expected to win seats in the chamber for the first time.

Russia

As Salvini’s star rises, the pro-EU center-left and center-right forces that have traditionally dominated the chamber are struggling against a turning tide of public opinion. Turnout for the vote has been slowly declining, and fell to 42.6% in 2014. This has given anti-establishment leaders including Salvini and Hungary’s Viktor Orban an opening to win more of the vote at a time when popular sentiment has decidedly turned against internationalist pro-EU politicians like France’s Emmanuel Macron.

The sliding fortunes of the parliament’s largest groups mean that the socialists and conservatives could fail to command 50 per cent of seats for the first time since the first European elections in 1979. However, with support from liberal and the Green groups they could still form a broad pro-EU alliance.

The figures are based on a compilation of national polls that will be updated regularly until the election.

end
Europe, China/USA
A good commentary from Daniel Lacalle as he explains why Europe has only 4 out of the top 50 technology companies and these 4 are suspect.  It is the huge red tape that hinders growth and a good reason why Britain is leaving
(courtesy Daniel Lacalle)

Europe Is Losing The Technology Race. Here Is Why

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

If we analyze the ranking of the main technological companies (2017), there is not a single European among the top fifteen. The vast majority are North American and Chinese companies.

It is even more worrying. If we go to the top 50 global technology companies, only four are European, but when we analyze those four, it is more than debatable that they are leaders in innovation, patents and market power. The European indexes of “technology” include, diplomatically, a few industrial conglomerates that have long lost the technological race.

This is not by chance or bad luck. It is by design, sadly.

A wrong taxation

The European Union usually talks a lot about technological investment and its commitment to new industries, but much of it is a facade. It penalizes technological investment in a very aggressive way, as well as the value creation and wealth that it entails. European taxation penalizes technological investment from the beginning, not only putting obstacles to companies from the start but, more importantly, with a confiscatory policy on capital investments, stock option schemes and private equity that finance business growth. It is not only monumental errors such as the so-called “Google Tax” and a myopic view of taxation aimed at scraping revenues from anything, but it is also the assault on any capital investment, added value, and profit created from risk-taking by investors who bet on innovation. In Europe, if something is not subsidized, it is considered suspicious.

Everything comes from the huge mistake of a European Union that seems to behave like a combination of a television preacher and the sheriff of Nottingham.One that tells others what they have to do and how to behave while confiscating the last coin of the remaining taxpayer.s The EU is obsessed with supposed tax revenues that only a central planner would invent, and at the same time ignores and hinders the enormous possibilities of employment, wealth and productivity improvement that it could attract.

A wrong regulation

The EU subordinates innovation to the bureaucratic whims of officials who insist on keeping things as they were in 1980. The European regulation for technology and innovation is as slow, inefficient and burdensome as it is for the old economy, and it puts obstacles under the excuse of normativism but hides something much worse, the thinly-disguised goal of supporting low productivity sectors by putting barriers to high productivity ones.

When one discusses this problem with regulators, they congratulate themselves because that the approval period of, for example, a Fintech company, is six to nine months. Even worse, anti-business myopia is reflected in a statement from thirty technological entrepreneurs sent to the European Union in which they warn of an “incoherent and punitive” system, “often archaic and highly inefficient” that can cause a “brain drain” of the best and brightest in Europe. ”

Subsidizing low productivity sectors to penalize high productivity sectors

A thin veil of regulation and laws disguises protectionism.

There is an obsession of the individual states to shield at any cost the rent-seeking position of their ill-named “national champions”, who have become a kind of disguised Social Securities and are docile companions of political power. The constant subsidization of sectors in the process of obsolescence while penalizing those who could replace and improve the pattern of growth and the business fabric is very evident throughout the EU. By keeping dinosaurs alive, governments prevent the creation of an ecosystem that would make other companies grow, develop and become global leaders. It is not a surprise that, country by country, we see how the European Union that constantly talks about competition is, in reality, trying to put barriers to new leaders so that the rent-seeking sectors keep their privileges of decades ago.

By trying to protect the dinosaurs, the EU countries end up hindering the innovation capacity of their economies and do not allow new giants to thrive.

This is protectionism hidden under the excuse of regulation and taxation, and the worst is that it neither protects national conglomerates, nor encourages them to reinvent themselves, nor does it support the creation of new European leaders.

Of course, there are some positive initiatives, it can not be denied, but the empirical evidence is that those are drowned under a million pages of obsolete European Union rules and taxes that impede it to lead the technological change.

If Europe wants a better future for our children and grandchildren, and our economies to strengthen, it must stop subsidizing what does not work and penalizing what works, stop attacking those who risk and invest in innovation. Because what no European politician is going to achieve is to return to 1980. However, what politicians will achieve is to make Europe the ideal collateral damage of a US-China technological dominance.

 

 

end

UK  

The pound is hit as 3 more Tory MP’s quit and join the “Independent Group”.  This may lead to an election as May’s minority government is getting less and less support

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Pound Slides As Three Tory MPs Quit Party And Join “Independent Group”

And just like that…the newly formed “Independent Group” is now larger than the DUP – the Irish unionist party that has allied with members of the ERG to sabotage Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

After the eighth Labour MP departed the party Tuesday night to join the newly formed group, which was created earlier this week when seven Labour MPs announced they would leave the party over its failure to adequately oppose Brexit (as well as its inability to eradicate antisemitism in the party), the “nonpartisan” group has officially achieved bipartisan status as three conservative MPs have announced that they will depart the Tories, which they accused of being unduly beholden to the European Research Group faction and the DUP.

In a statement, they accused the Tories of lurching to the right and embracing “UKIP” policies, according to the Guardian.

In a letter to Prime Minister Theresa May, the three MPs wrote: “We no longer feel we can remain in the party of a government whose policies and priorities are so firmly in the grip of the ERG and DUP.”

“Brexit has re-defined the Conservative party – undoing all the efforts to modernise it. There has been a dismal failure to stand up to the hardline ERG, which operates openly as a party within a party, with its own leader, whip and policy.”

The three MPs also said Theresa May’s handling of Brexit had been “disastrous” and that no effort had been made to build a consensus.

Read the full statement below:

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

The Independent Group@TheIndGroup

‘We can no longer act as bystanders. We are honour bound to put our constituents’ and country’s interests first.’ Read the letter to the Prime Minister from @heidiallen75 @Anna_Soubry and @sarahwollaston

The departure weighed on the pound Wednesday morning as it added to a flurry of GBP-negative news, which included the EU’s confirmation that it wouldn’t consider changes to the Irish backstop or a deadline on the backstop.

GBP

Here’s a graphic showing the membership of the group, which now includes 11 MPs despite having no leader, structure or platform other than ‘hard Brexit bad’:

Screenshot

end
France
The French courts do not fool around.  They whacked UBS with a huge $5.1 billion tax evasion fine
for aiding and abetting French citizens to evade taxes
(courtesy zerohedge)

UBS Shares Tumble As French Judge Slaps Bank With $5.1 Billion Tax Evasion Fine

In a landmark ruling that sent a clear message to other banks battling misconduct investigations in French courts, a Paris court on Wednesday found UBS guilty of having actively helped some of its wealthy French clients hide money from French tax authorities in undeclared Swiss bank accounts, and ordered the bank to pay a $5.1 billion fine. The fine represents a record sum in France, and isn’t too far below the $6 billion maximum allotted by French law.

UBS

Shares of the bank slumped 5% on the ruling.

UBS

Regarding the penalty, which followed trials of UBS and its French subsidiary,  trials where the bank was ultimately found guilty, the judge said it reflected the serious nature of the charges.

“The criminal wrongdoings were of an exceptionally serious nature,” said Presiding Judge Christine Mee.

The fine consisted of a 3.7 billion euro ($4.2 billion) penalty and another 800 million euro ($907 million) fine to compensate the French government for lost revenue. The penalty comes after the bank turned down a settlement after the two sides failed to agree on a number. The ruling marks the conclusion of an eight-year-long probe, and also comes as money laundering probes into Baltic banks heated up with allegations that Swedbank, the biggest bank in the region, has been drawn into the Danske Bank money laundering probe.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia

Very scary!! Russia is advancing in weaponry at an alarming pace. They now state that they will point weapons at the USA directly if it deploys missiles to Europe

(courtesy zerohedge)

Russia Will Target US With New Hypersonic Weapons If It Deploys Missiles To Europe

In his first major public address since the US formally pulled out of the INF arms-control treaty, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Wednesday that Russia would point its new arsenal of hypersonic missiles – which can purportedly bypass NATO’s ABM systems – directly at the US if it dares to reintroduce ground-based intermediate-range missiles to Europe.

According to FoxPutin threatened to deploy Russia’s new Zircon missiles, which Putin said can fly at nine times the speed of sound and carry a range of 620 miles and are part of the country’s drive to upgrade its defensive capabilities against an increasingly aggressive US and NATO.

Putin

Putin also took a few moments to praise Russia’s weapons program, comparing the new Avangard hypersonic missile – which Russia infamously tested on the day after Christmas, sending a shiver of alarm through Western intelligence and defense analysts – to the 1957 launch of Sputnik-1, the world’s first artificial satellite, which was built by the Soviet Union. The weapon has demonstrated that Russia has the technological capabilities to surpass the US, according to RT.

And in another warning that, if true, will likely aggravate the US defense community, Putin revealed that Russia has been carrying out successful tests of its  Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone.

“It seemed until recently that Russia can’t make a breakthrough in defense technologies, but we made it,” Putin said.

Though Russia won’t deploy weapons preemptively, Putin said that if the US does place weapons in Europe, Russia will deliver an “asymmetric” response and target not only the host countries of those weapons, but “decision-making center” in the US (presumably Washington).

Still, Putin said he’s hoping the US and Russia can work out their differences.

“We don’t want confrontation, particularly with such a global power as the US.”

With the US and Europe reportedly close to agreeing on a fresh raft of sanctions against Russia (just in time for the Mueller report), Putin also criticized what he described as a “destructive” US policy of targeting Russia.

Moving on from national security-related issues, Putin also spoke about plans to increase welfare spending and embark on public works projects. As reports have shown that his popularity in the Russian hinterlands has taken a hit in response to a controversial plan to ship Moscow’s garbage to Siberia, Putin promised improved healthcare and education spending, while promising to upgrade 60 airports during the coming year.

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7  OIL ISSUES

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

Venezuela/USA

Border class imminent:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Border Clash Imminent As Maduro Deploys Military To Borders To Block ‘Aid’

Venezuela has shut a key maritime border and grounded flights as the Washington-backed coup-leader Juan Guaido has said that foreign aid will enter Venezuela from neighboring countries by land and sea on Saturday.

 

CNN reports that a government representative confirmed Venezuela has closed its maritime border with Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire and, in the Western state of Falcon, prevented flights leaving from or departing to those islands.President Maduro has rejected offers of foreign food and medicine, denying there are widespread shortages and accusing Guaido of using aid to undermine his government in a U.S.-orchestrated bid to oust him.

In comments broadcast on state TV, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino said the opposition would have to pass over “our dead bodies” to impose a new government. Guaido, who has invoked the constitution to assume an interim presidency, denounces Maduro as illegitimate and has received backing from some 50 countries.

Padrino said it was unacceptable for the military to receive threats from Trump, and said officers and soldiers remained “obedient and subordinate” to Maduro.

“They will never accept orders from any foreign government … they will remain deployed and alert along the borders, as our commander in chief has ordered, to avoid any violations of our territory’s integrity,” Padrino said.

“Those that attempt to be president here in Venezuela … will have to pass over our dead bodies,” he said, referring to what he called Guaido’s efforts to create a “puppet government.”

Additionally, Thomson reports that Cuba denied on Tuesday it has security forces in Venezuela (after the Trump administration made claims):

“Our government categorically and energetically rejects this slander,” Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez said at a Havana press conference, adding all of the some 20,000 Cubans in Venezuela were civilians, most health professionals.

Rodriguez called on the U.S. administration to produce proof.

“The accusation by the US President that Cuba maintains a private army in Venezuela is despicable. I demand that you present evidence.

“There is a big political and communications campaign underway which are usually the prelude to larger actions by this government,” Rodriguez said.

Rodriguez termed the political crisis in Venezuela “a failed imperialist coup … fabricated in Washington,” and warned plans to deliver humanitarian aid were a recipe for violence and intervention.

“We are all witnesses in the making of humanitarian pretexts. A deadline has been set for forcing the entry of humanitarian aid,” Rodriguez said.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday warned members of Venezuela’s military who remain loyal to Maduro that they would “find no safe harbor, no easy exit and no way out.”

“You’ll lose everything,” Trump told a crowd of Venezuelan and Cuban immigrants in

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settingsWEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1283 DOWN .0029 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.76  UP .169 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2914    DOWN   0.0009  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3255 UP .0019 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 26 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1269/ Last night Shanghai composite closed UP 5.57 POINTS OR 0.20%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 285.92  POINTS OR 1.81% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .14%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 128.84 POINTS OR 0.60% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 285,92 POINTS OR 1.81%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.57 POINTS OR 0.20% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 14%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 128.84 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1344.00

silver:$16.03

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.63% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.97 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96.59 UP 7 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.52% UP 1   in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.03%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.20% DOWN 1   IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.86 UP 8    POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 166 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS  TO +.10%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.76% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1359 UP   .0020 or 20 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 110.73 UP  0.146 OR YEN DOWN 15 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3069 UP.0010( POUND UP 10  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 60 basis points to 1.3151

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed HOLIDAY AT 6.7213    0N SHORE

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7138(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.3227

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.03%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.66 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.00 UP 2  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.39 DOWN 13 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP  40.28 OR 0.56%

German Dax : UP 90,09 POINTS OR .80%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 33.73 POINTS OR  0.65%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 41.70 POINTS OR  0.46%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 81.75 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.92 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 67.24 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.54  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.17 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 17 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO +.10 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.92

 

 

BRENT :  66.97

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.64.. bond market did not buy the FOMC

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.99

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1343 ( UP 4    BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.83 UP .252 (YEN DOWN 25   BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.51 DOWN 2 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3058  DOWN 1 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3227

the Russian rouble 65.72   UP .01 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 1 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3174 UP 36 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7213  (ONSHORE)/CLOSED FOR THE WEEK

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7159  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.10%

 

The Dow closed UP 63.19 POINTS OR 0.24%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 2.34 POINTS OR 0.03%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.15 CLOSED down .73 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.641%  

 

 

FROM 2.643

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Sleepy Stocks Drift As Fed Minutes Fail To Ignite Buying Boost

The market’s hopes that today’s snow-delayed Fed minutes would resolve the debate over the fate of the balance sheet unwind, were dashed with the Fed confirming what traders already knew: the Fed would remain patient, data dependent, focused on the fading inflation impulse, and would seek a plan for when the Fed’s balance sheet unwind would end by the end of 2019 suggesting that the QT may continue well into 2020 if not later, dependent on what the Fed concludes is a sufficient amount of required bank reserves.

As Bloomberg notes, “small moves in stocks, bonds and FX as the Fed minutes portray a central bank that still sees a decent economy, slow-growing inflation, a tight labor market and an uncertain path for interest rates.” The Minutes punctuated another rather quiet session that saw economically-sensitive stocks such as steel makers, chemical and industrial companies outperform against a flat tape.

Following the ambivalent minutes, rate hike expectations were broadly unchanged, with the Fed Funds still pricing in a rate cut in 2020 as the divergence with the Fed’s hawkish dots continues.

As a result, stocks initially slumped, then rebounded, and traded modestly in the green, with the nasdaq hugging the flatline, as banks, small caps and energy stocks outperforming, offset by losses in homebuilders.

Treasurys were mixed, with the long end taking on water and the curve initially steepening led by 30Y yields higher, even as the short end and 10Ys were more or less flat for the day…

however by the close of trading, today’s steepening had faded most of the intraday move.

Despite today’s modest appetite, the scramble into safe havens observed in late December remains a distant memory, and the short end continued to trade about 10bps higher than Fed Funds.

In single names gainers, Caterpillar stood out, with its rally accelerating after it said Chinese demand is “very strong.”

In commodities, WTI crude rose to 2019 highs, up roughly a dollar on the day…

… helping to push 5Y breakevens similarly to 2019 highs…

… while nickel and copper were among the biggest commodity gainers, with some traders citing China’s latest easing steps overnight as a catalyst.

After swinging higher, then lower, the dollar ended mostly unchanged, even as the recent surge in the offshore yuan extended its advance toward the 6.70 level in the New York session despite analyst expectations that gains will be short-lived as China’s weak economy eventually outweighs optimism from a potential trade deal.

And so, with the Minutes coming and going, the critical 2,800 level in the S&P remains untouched, with the broader index trading about 15 points away, and facing massive resistance to break out above what has now been called a “quadruple top.”

When and how the S&P can breach this level remains a question for another day after today’s subdued trading day.

end

end

MARKET TRADING

Trading after release of FOMC:

Confused Market Slides Then Rebounds After FOMC Minutes

In light of the relative lack of new information in the Fed minutes, which reinforced the Fed’s dovish, patient, “data-dependent” posture with hint of growing dovishness when it comes to future inflation, however coupled with the new data that “almost all” FOMC officials wanted a “plan” to step reducing the balance sheet by year end, it is perhaps not surprising that markets haven’t done much.

Indeed, as Bloomberg’s Ye Xie notes, “many participants don’t know what will be the next move later this year, which perhaps is the definition of being neutral.” Furthermore, the Fed underscored its data-dependence, perhaps to an extreme, after several participants argued that rate hikes are only necessarily when inflation surprises on the upside, while some hawks say higher rates are needed if the economy performs as expected.

In keeping with this take, there has not been any notable move in Fed Fund expectations, which still call for a rate cut in early 2020, a divergence with the Fed’s dots which will have to be address by the Fed next month when the FOMC releases its latest economic projections and dot plot, which still sees 2 rate hikes this year versus the market’s zero.

Following the minutes, the broader market has drifted, first sliding to session lows, then rebounding before stabilizing modestly in the green…

… with bank stocks, energy and small caps leading and homebuilders and tech dragging stocks lower.

Meanwhile, with the dollar back to unchanged on the day, yields along the curve were pushed modestly higher, led by the long end as the steepening discussed earlier by Charlie McElligott appears to be taking hold:

The bottom line is that the Fed can afford to wait and see because inflation pressure is muted. It’s more about risk management. Bond yields and the dollar moved a bit higher but the minutes shouldn’t move the needle for markets by much.

end

 

Then late in the day we get this very gold bullish pronouncement from Goldman Sachs who are generally in the know:

The Fed will announce the ending of QT  by the 3rd quarter

(courtesy Goldman Sachs/zerohedge)

Goldman: In March The Fed Will Announce QT Will End In Q3

Confirming what we said earlier, in its post-mortem, Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius notes that the minutes of the January FOMC meeting “continued to emphasize patience in the policy outlook due to uncertainty around financial conditions, slower foreign growth, and softer inflation.”

While the bulk of the minutes was trivial, as participants maintained a relatively steady view of the growth outlook, noted that inflation “remained near 2 percent” even as inflation pressures appear “muted,” and continued to note rising downside risks, the one surprise was that almost all participants thought that it would be desirable to announce soon a plan to stop reducing the Fed’s asset holdings later this year.

But before we get into the weeds on Goldman’s take what the Minutes meant for the future of QT, here is a quick recap of the bigger picture:

Participants noted that both core and overall inflation “remained near 2 percent” but discussed whether recent “softness” in inflation would persist, as upward inflation pressures appear “more muted.” Some participants pointed to increasing wage growth in their districts due to “tightening labor market conditions” or “gains in the rate of productivity growth.” Participants noted that market-based measures of inflation expectations were lower in recent months, but also noted that survey-based measures of inflation expectations were “little changed.”

Participants supported the removal of the hiking bias and its replacement with a sentence emphasizing a “patient and flexible approach.” Participants pointed to tighter financial conditions, softer inflation, slower foreign growth, and trade policy uncertainty as justifying a patient approach to policy. However, a range of views were expressed on what adjustments to the funds rate may be appropriate later this year. “Several” participants argued rates increases were necessary “only if” inflation was higher than in their baseline, but “several” other participants indicated that hikes would be appropriate if the economy evolved as they expected. In addition, “many” participants noted that if “uncertainty abated,” the FOMC could alter the “patient” statement language.

Finally the punchline: according to Goldman, the Fed will end its balance sheet unwind before the end of the year, long before primary dealers and the buyside had expected (which according to the majority, was some time in 2020).

Discussing the Fed’s balance sheet comments, the bank notes that “almost all participants thought it would be desirable to announce soon a plan to stop reducing the Fed’s asset holdings later this year. The staff also presented options to slow the pace of bank reserves shrinkage through the growth of nonreserve liabilities while keeping the total size of the balance sheet flat. Many participants suggested that such a one-sided squeeze of reserves could be appropriate.” And, as Powell had previously hinted, following a discussion of market commentary that QT might be influencing financial markets, “participants agreed that it was important for balance sheet policy to be flexible in principle.”

As a result, following the minutes Goldman now expects an announcement at the March meeting that runoff will stop at the end of Q3 and that reserves will be gradually reduced somewhat longer via the growth of nonreserve liabilities.

Finally, the bank left its Fed call probabilities unchanged, still expecting one hike in 2019, and “an additional 0.6” net hikes – a number which merely reflects odds rather than reality as the Fed can’t half-hike – in 2019.

ii)Market data/

This should be extremely gold bullish, but then we are dealing with crooked banks: almost all the clown Fed officials want a plan to stop their roll off of treasuries form the balance sheet.  This they want done by year end.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fed Minutes: “Almost All” Fed Officials Want Plan To Stop Reducing Balance Sheet By Year End

Amid today’s “inclement weather” FOMC minutes delay, which prevented the Fed from releasing the Jan Fed meeting minutes to a media lockup ahead of their public release, thus making impossible the dissemination of headlines and prepared news stories to go alongside the minutes release at 2:00pm, there was a bit of a scramble to grab the most salient highlights from the Fed minutes for a meeting that was seen as pivotal for the Fed, one where the US central bank surprised with a dovish reversal, effectively putting on hold any further rate hikes while cautioning that it was prepared to adjust its balance sheet unwind which until that moment was said to be on “autopilot.”

With that in mind, and with traders desperate to find any further hints of either renewed hawkish sentiment or a more pronounced dovish reversal, here is what has emerged as the key highlights from today’s minutes.

On General economic conditions:

  • *FED OFFICIALS NOTED SOME DOWNSIDE RISKS HAD INCREASED
  • *FED OFFICIALS SEE CONTINUED SUSTAINED EXPANSION
  • *FED OFFICIALS SAY RECENT HOUSEHOLD DATA HAVE BEEN STRONG
  • *FED OFFICIALS SEE STRONG LABOR MARKET, INFLATION NEAR TARGET
  • *FED OFFICIALS NOTE BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAD MODERATED

On the increase in “downside risks”:

  • “the decline in inflation compensation might reflect in large part declines in risk premiums or increased concerns about downside risks to the outlook for inflation. This interpretation was seen as consistent with the behavior of the most recent survey-based measures of expected inflation, which were little changed.”

On the market’s influence over the Fed:

  • FOMC communications were reportedly perceived by market participants as not fully appreciating the implications of tighter financial conditions and softening global data over recent months for the U.S. economic outlook
  • Market participants pointed to a number of factors as contributing to the heightened volatility and sustained declines in risk asset prices and interest rates over recent months including a weaker outlook and greater uncertainties for foreign economies (particularly for Europe and China), perceptions of greater policy risks, and the partial shutdown of the federal government
  • Market participants appeared to interpret FOMC communications at the time of the December meeting as not fully appreciating the tightening of financial conditions and the associated downside risks to the U.S. economic outlook that had emerged since the fall
  • Participants agreed that it was important to continue to monitor financial market developments and assess the implications of these developments for the economic outlook.

On the key issue of balance sheet reduction:

  • Consistent with recent communications that the FOMC would be flexible in its approach to balance sheet normalization, the survey results also suggested that the respondents anticipated that the Committee would slow the balance sheet runoff in scenarios that involved a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate.
  • Some market reports suggested that investors perceived the FOMC to be insufficiently flexible in its approach to adjusting the path for the federal funds rate or the process for balance sheet normalization
  • participants raised a number of questions about market reports that the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet runoff and associated “quantitative tightening” had been an important factor contributing to the selloff in equity markets in the closing months of last year
  • some other investors reportedly held firmly to the belief that the runoff of the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings was a factor putting significant downward pressure on risky asset prices, and the investment decisions of these investors, particularly in thin market conditions around the year-end, might have had an outsized effect on market prices for a time

On the dot plot:

  • Participants were concerned that, although the individual participants’ projections for the federal funds rate in the SEP reflect their individual views of the appropriate path for the policy rate conditional on the evolution of the economic outlook, at times the public had misinterpreted the median or central tendency of those projections as representing the consensus view of the Committee or as suggesting that policy was on a preset course

And the one section that the market will be mostly focused on: the Fed is actively contemplating ending QT in the second half:

  • “the staff presented options for substantially slowing the decline in reserves by ending the reduction in asset holdings at some point over the latter half of this year and thereafter holding the size of the SOMA portfolio roughly constant for a time so that the average level of reserves would fall at a very gradual pace reflecting the trend growth in other Federal Reserve liabilities.”

And this:

  • Almost all participants thought that it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing the Federal Reserve’s asset holdings later this year

Developing:

Full minutes below (link)

end

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

The transfer of public assets in Illinois will not help.  Illinois is in one big mess:

(courtesy Mark Glennon/Wirepoints)

Illinois Considering “Asset Transfers” To Pensions: Be Afraid

Submitted by Mark Glennon of Wirepoints

Governor JB Pritzker’s administration has now made clear it will seriously consider the latest idea to address Illinois’ pension crisis – transferring public assets directly to state pensions. It recently announced the formation of a task force on the subject.

At its core, the concept is exceptionally simple. In practice, however, it’s exceptionally subject to smoke and mirrors and would further obscure a pension system that’s already far too opaque. More importantly, asset transfers do nothing to improve the state’s overall fiscal health.

Just convey ownership of some public assets to the pension, for free, in addition to the cash contributions taxpayers make now. That’s all this is about. Maybe the Illinois Lottery or Illinois Tollway for state pensions. Maybe Midway Airport or its water system for Chicago pensions. Those are examples of assets that have been mentioned that might be handed over.

Illinois state pensions are officially reported to have assets about $130 billion less than what they need to have on hand to pay for pension benefits already earned. Turn over ownership of the tollway and some other assets and, voila, the thinking goes, that shortfall would shrink by whatever the transferred asset is worth.

The first problem should be obvious – the state, as a whole, would be no better off. Whatever assets the state owns – which are your assets as taxpayers – would simply be moved over to the pension funds for the sole purpose of covering benefit obligations. But the pensions are really just a unit of government because Illinois courts have made clear that the sponsoring unit of government is liable directly to pensioners if pension assets ever fall short. So, pensions might be made more secure by an asset transfer, but the government’s overall balance sheet remains the same.

Not true, I’ve heard some proponents of asset transfers say. They claim there are certain public assets where the value of the asset can only be fully unlocked through a transfer to a pension. Just selling or leasing the asset to some third party, they say, wouldn’t work. I’ll believe that when I see an example.

If you’re wondering at this point whether accounting shenanigans might be at play, you’re right to be concerned. Some valuation would have to be placed on the asset transferred in order to understand a pension’s true position. But public assets don’t have clear market values. What’s the Illinois Lottery really worth, for example? Experts will have different opinions, but the temptation will be to inflate the value in order to make pension financial statements look better.

And how on earth will actuaries decide what rate of return to assume on those assets? Currently, Illinois pensions assume about 7% per year. That’s already extremely controversial, with Nobel economists being the harshest critics. This will make heads explode in the actuary world.

Over time, the value of the asset will change. The lottery’s value, for example, will drop markedly if Illinois expands other forms of gambling as rapidly as planned. Does anybody really expect pensions to honestly report that changing value, given their sordid history distorting their position with phony numbers on things like discount rates and mortality projections?

And even if honest valuations are used, another temptation will be to transfer assets that are on the books at lower valuations. That would improve a government’s reported balance sheet when it’s valued fairly in the pension after transfer, but the government’s position wouldn’t really improve at all.

In the private sector, where asset transfers to pensions are sometimes done, that accounting trick is the whole point – take an asset that’s been heavily depreciated to less than fair value and give it to the pension at fair value, which magically improves the consolidated balance sheet. That’s a sensible tactic for a private company to improve its reported position, but for governments, from a taxpayer’s viewpoint, it doesn’t change the economic realities.

How ’bout we just transfer the Thompson Center to the pensions for $500 billion and call it a day, a reader asked? Sorry, won’t work.

What about management and control of a public asset by a pension? Would you really want a pension managing Midway Airport, for example? No, advocates of asset transfers say, the whole transaction would be set up like a triple net lease, where the governmental unit would continue to be in control. Only the cash flow would be diverted to the pension.

But think about that and all kinds of questions are apparent. If the city truly kept control, it would have every incentive to reduce charges for parking, landing and gate fees, which is how airports make money. They’d be sure to cover operational expenses, but nothing would truly be left for the pension, making the whole deal unfeasible. If, on the other hand, the pension could determine those charges, well, heaven forbid that.

The complexity of asset transfers would be mind-boggling for major things like airports, water and sewer systems. They are tied up by layers of mortgages and covenants protecting bondholders. Disentangling them, if that’s possible at all, would be a matter few officeholders or taxpayers would ever understand.

Other questions are endless. Ask them and one thing will come to mind – Chicago’s disastrous parking meter deal. In that case, a public asset was transferred not for pensions but to cover city operating expenses, but the concept is similar, and similar risks of having a bad deal foisted on the public should be apparent.

If this is getting confusing, take a look at the attached example. It’s from a company promoting the idea of asset transfers – Colliers International, an investment manager and real estate services company. It puts the concept in glowing terms, a “brilliant strategy,” using as an example the transfer of an office building used by an Arizona town to it’s underfunded pension.

Read that, and you’ll understand why the concept is getting attention. But ask yourself whether town residents are really better off because of the transaction. They owned the office building. It was worth what it was worth. They used it to pay their pension. Total assets and total liabilities for the town and its pension, combined together, didn’t change.

Our view on this is the same as our view about other ways to throw money at pensions. Don’t do it unless and until the pension system is reformed. Otherwise, Illinoisans will see that their assets are being tossed into a bottomless, corrupt pit. Don’t do it all unless the economic consequences and future reporting will be transparent and certain (which is probably impossible for most assets). Don’t just give away the assets. Demand reform concessions from current workers in Tier 1, who can negotiate collectively, and Tier 1 is where all unfunded liabilities are.

The Pritzker Administration has shown no interest in any of that.

Prepare for smoke and mirrors.

end

In a 9:0 ruling the USA supreme court limited the states ability to seize upon property and impose excessive fines.  This should stop civil forfeitures in its tracks

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Supreme Court Rules To Limit States’ Ability To Seize Property, Impose Fines

The US Supreme Court ruled unanimously on Wednesday that the Excessive Fines Clause in the 8th Amendment applies to state and local governments.

Announced in an opinion written by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on her second day back on the bench following a December cancer surgery, the ruling limits states’ abilities to seize property and impose fines deemed excessive on citizens who break the law.

“For good reason, the protection against excessive fines has been a constant shield throughout Anglo-American history: Exorbitant tolls undermine other constitutional liberties,” wrote Ginsburg, as the court sided with Tyson Timbs of Marion Indiana, whose $42,000 Land Rover SUV was seized by the state following a guilty plea for selling $385 worth of heroin to an undercover detective.

Following a plea bargain, Timbs was sentenced to a year of home detention followed by five years of probation, as well as $1,200 in fees.

Excessive fines can be used, for example, to retaliate against or chill the speech of political enemies . . . Even absent a political motive, fines may be employed in a measure out of accord with the penal goals of retribution and deterrence.

Timbs drew wide support from civil liberties organizations, according to the Washington Post.

Other USSC Justices were highly critical of property seizures and fines, with Justice Clarence Thomas suggesting that civil forfeitures had become “widespread and highly profitable.” 

“This system — where police can seize property with limited judicial oversight and retain it for their own use — has led to egregious and well-chronicled abuses,” Thomas wrote, referring to reporting by The Washington Post and the New Yorker.

At oral argument, Timbs’s lawyer said the case was a simple matter of “constitutional housekeeping.” –Washington Post

The Constitution’s Bill of Rights limits the actions of the federal government – however it has been increasingly applied by the Supreme Court to local governments, particularly under the due-process clause of the 14th Amendment, notes the Post‘s Robert Barnes. 

In 2010, for instance, the court held that the Second Amendment applied to state and local government laws on gun control.

The Eighth Amendment states: “Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.” Two of those commands — regarding bail and cruel and unusual punishments — have been deemed to apply to state and local governments. But until now, the ban on excessive fines had not been. –Washington Post

In the Timbs case, the Indiana Supreme Court noted while overturning a lower court’s ruling that the state’s actions against Timbs were excessive.

In Wednesday’s USSC ruling, Ginsburg’s opinion clarifies that the clause applies – and is “incorporated” under the 14th Amendment’s Due Process Clause. Justices Gorsuch and Thomas agreed with the outcome, however they noted that they would have relied on a different part of the 14th Amendment.

end

SWAMP STORIES

Is this the end of it:  Barr is set to announce the end of the Mueller probe

(courtesy zerohedge)

Over At Last? AG Barr To Announce End Of Mueller Probe Next Week: CNN

Barely a week after being sworn in as the head of the Justice Department, Attorney General William Barr is reportedly planning to announce as early as next week that Robert Mueller has completed his investigation and that a confidential report on Mueller’s findings will be submitted to Congress in the very near future.

According to CNN, the preparations – which are in line with an NBC report from late last year that the Mueller report would be completed by the end of February – “are the clearest indication yet that Mueller is nearly done with his almost two-year investigation.” Barr has said that he wants to be as “transparent” as possible while being “consistent with the rules and the law.”

Mueller

According to the law, Mueller must submit a “confidential” report to the AG after the investigation ends. But the rules don’t require it to be shared with Congress or the public (though, like everything involving the Mueller probe, it will almost certainly leak).

One thing that remains unclear is to what extent Mueller’s findings will be shared with Congress (since the DOJ typically frowns on publicizing embarrassing or compromising information about people who haven’t been charged with a crime…though that principle has apparently gone out the window over the last two years).

CNN also noted that it’s possible that Mueller has made referrals to other prosecutors besides the New York US attorney who brought charges against Michael Cohen. The existence of other investigations might also soon come to light. CNN reported that attorneys from the US attorney’s office for Washington DC have been visiting Mueller “more than usual.”

Signs that the Mueller probe is winding down have been multiplying in recent weeks. Four of his 17 prosecutors have been reassigned, and the grand jury he has used to secure his indictments hasn’t convened since late January.

While Trump is probably hoping that the Russia collusion narrative will decidedly die after the report is released, former DNI James Clapper – whom Trump threatened to strip  of his security clearance – warned that the report might leave open the question of whether there actually was collusion between Trump and Russia, giving the release a disappointingly anti-climactic feel, according to the Hill.

Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said Wednesday that he’s far from sure that special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation will clear up questions about President Trump and Russia.

He said he was hopeful the Mueller probe will provide some answers, but warned it might not even draw a conclusion on whether there was collusion between the Trump campaign and Moscow.

“I think the hope is that the Mueller investigation will clear the air on this issue once and for all. I’m really not sure it will, and the investigation, when completed, could turn out to be quite anti-climactic and not draw a conclusion about that.”

So, it appears that, after a series of false alarms and blown deadlines, maybe the Mueller probe really is winding down. But the notion that Russia helped Trump cheat during the 2016 campaign might not die yet.

end

It is time for a new special prosecutor who will investigate the investigators

(courtesy Raul Meijer)

 

What Comes After McCabe?

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

Andrew McCabe, former Deputy Director from February 2016 to January 2018 and former Acting Director of the FBI from May 9, 2017, to August 2, 2017, was fired by Attorney General Jeff Sessions Sessions on March 16, 2018, 26 hours before his scheduled retirement.On April 18 2018 it was reported that the Justice Department’s inspector general, Michael Horowitz, sent a referral to the US attorney’s office in Washington for possible criminal charges against McCabe for lying to internal investigators.

When Sessions announced McCabe’s firing a month before the report came out, he said he based his decision on reports from the DOJ Inspector General and the FBI’s disciplinary office saying that McCabe had made unauthorized releases of information to the media (concerning disclosure of information to a Wall Street Journal reporter about an ongoing investigation into the Clinton Foundation), and had “lacked candor” in talking about it (“had “lacked candor” in talking” means “lied”)

For a reason I don’t really understand -is it really just because he has a book coming out?– McCabe did an interview with 60 minutes that aired Sunday, but from which details leaked earlier in the week. In it McCabe suggests he was fired because he opened two investigations into US President Donald Trump 10 months before Sessions ousted him.

That seems peculiar for two reasons: one, why would he have been permitted to investigate Trump for 10 months, if the investigations were the reason to fire him? And two, is McCabe suggesting that at least some colleagues inside the FBI itself did not accuse him of lying? I haven’t seen that denied before. It would mean both the DOJ Inspector General and the FBI’s disciplinary office were dead wrong.

In the 60 Minutes piece, McCabe appears to throw Rod Rosenstein, US Deputy Attorney General since April 26, 2017, under the bus by claiming that -among other things- Rosenstein offered to wear a wire when meeting with Trump, something Rosenstein has always claimed he had said in jest. McCabe now insists he was serious.

Best friends? Maybe not anymore. Then again, the ‘official’ picture is still that of two of a group of ‘real patriots’ out to save the country. Somehow that makes me think of the Three Musketeers, a dashing and swashbuckling anything goes for the fatherland. McCabe actually appears to think he had to protect America from its newly elected president, and so, ostensibly, does Rosenstein. D’Artagnan had a whole different class of foes, I recall.

Also ostensibly, two Trump cabinet members were “ready to support” a Rosenstein/DOJ scheme to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove President Trump, according to testimony last fall to the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees by James Baker, former FBI top lawyer. Who also mentioned for example Lisa Page was involved, love interest of Peter Strzok, both fired FBI officials well-known for their hate of Trump.

There’s a zillion more things to say about this, but it shouldn’t be me saying it, or any other writer or journalist. The reason I write this is to ask a very simple and obvious question: where is the Special Counsel who’s going to investigate this putrid quagmire? And when will (s)he finally be appointed? We know, we know, it’d be investigating the investigators, and who’s left for that job? Or are the investigators by now so corrupted that we might as well surrender?

Sure, Lindsey Graham wants the Senate Intelligence Committee to do an investigation, but is that the appropriate venue? Why a Special Counsel filled to the brim with FBI connected folk for Russiagate and ‘only’ a House Committee for FBI-gate? Or is that perhaps the wrong term? Does it matter?

And yes, a million voices will claim that a call for a Special Counsel investigation into the FBI and DOJ can only come from Trump supporters, but they really haven’t been paying attention.

William Barr is the new Attorney General, right, and Christopher Wray heads the FBI. Both organizations have to be very concerned about their credibility, because from the outside they look like cesspools. Rosenstein and McCabe’s swashbuckling should be enough reason, but we know much more went on and many more people were involved.

So let’s have it…

end

This is interesting and will probably had Kerosene Maxine hopping. Deutsche bank discussed extending a Trump loan maturity as they had fears of default as well as worrying about calling in loans on a sitting president.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Discussed Extending Trump Loan Maturity Over Default Fears

Deutsche Bank’s PR campaign to get out ahead of whatever “Kerosene Maxine’s” subpoenas might uncover led to another not-altogether-unexpected revelation Wednesday morning when Bloomberg reported more details about the German lender’s efforts to distance itself from the soon-to-be president.

We reported previously that Deutsche sought to limit its exposure to Trump during the run-up to his 2016 electoral victory for two reasons: it feared the public blowback that any association with Trump’s divisive campaign rhetoric might bring, and it also wanted to avoid the eventuality of Trump defaulting on a loan while in office – which would force the bank into the uncomfortable position of needing to seize the assets of the President of the United States.

Trump

For these reasons, senior bank executives vetoed a request by the Trump Organization to expand a loan taken out by the Trump Organization (it wanted to use the extra money for renovations at Turnberry, one of its golf clubs). And now, BBG reported that the bank considered extending repayment dates for the Trump Organizations’ outstanding loans until the end of a potential second term in 2025 to avoid the possibility of Trump defaulting while in office – a possibility that was discussed by members of Deutsche’s management board, including then-CEO John Cryan. Extending the deadline for the loans, which came due in 2023 and 2024, wouldn’t have been that big of a stretch for the bank, given the timing. But still, the bank ultimately decided against the plan.

In an interesting twist – and as was previously reported – then-retail banking chief Christian Sewing, who is now Deutsche’s CEO, was in favor of extending more credit to the Trump Organization, which had heretofore had a profitable relationship with Deutsche, but he was overruled by the bank’s reputational risk committee.

Representatives for DN declined to comment on the story, but Eric Trump, speaking on behalf of the Trump Organization, slammed the story as “nonsense.”

A spokesman for Deutsche Bank declined to comment, and the people with knowledge of the discussions said they didn’t know why the bank ultimately decided not to extend the loans. The White House didn’t respond to requests for comment.

This story is complete nonsense,” Eric Trump, a son of the president and an executive vice president of the Trump Organization, said in an email. “We are one of the most under-leveraged real estate companies in the country. Virtually all of our assets are owned free and clear, and the very few that do have mortgages are a small fraction relative to the value of the asset. These are traditional loans, no different than any other real estate developer would carry as part of a comparable portfolio.”

The bank’s outstanding loans to the Trump Org include $125 million for Trump National Doral Miami, which comes due in 2023, as well as a $170 million for Trump International Hotel in Washington and another loan on its tower in Chicago, both of which come due in 2024.

Between 2012 and 2016, Trump borrowed more than $620 million from Deutsche Bank and another lender called Ladder Capital (where the son of the Trump Organization’s longtime CFO was a top loan executive), to finance projects in Manhattan, Chicago, Washington and a Miami suburb. Of that total, the Trump org received $282 million from Ladder for four Manhattan properties.

The loans differed in structure. And analysis of government databases which contain filings related to local properties, the loans haven’t changed since Trump’s financial disclosure.

The loans are split between variable-rate and fixed-rate mortgages. Some are interest-only loans, with balloon payments due at maturity, according to property records and securities filings.

The maturities on Trump’s Deutsche Bank loans haven’t changed since his preelection financial disclosure, filings show. Government-run databases containing local property filings for New York, Washington, Chicago and Miami-Dade County don’t show any changes in the terms of Trump’s mortgages.

But those details likely won’t stop Maxine Waters and Adam Schiff from examining Trump’s lending relationship with the bank, harassing his longtime banker Rosemary Vrablic, and publicize the bank’s due diligence on Trump after 2016, revelations that, we’re sure, will include a few embarrassing nuggets about the perceived “risks” associated with lending to Trump that, we imagine, should play well in the press.

end

California maybe in a mess as Trump demands $2.5 billion back in funds allocated to the state for its high speed rail project.  As you know, Newsome cancelled the project after it was revealed that it was well over budget and so far the cost reached the 77 billion dollar mark. California is one of the states that started a lawsuit against the implementation of the wall funding. Trump knows how to pay them back for their nonsense

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Trump Demands $2.5Bn Back For California’s High-Speed Rail Fail; Pulls $929Mn Grant

The US Department of Transportation (DOT) says it is exploring legal options to claw back $2.5 billion from California in federal funds which have already been spent on the ill-fated statewide high-speed rail system, according to the New York Times.

The Trump administration is also canceling a $929 million grant which was allocated to the California High-Speed Rail Authority detailed in a letter from DOT, just one week after California Governor Newsom announced that the project had been derailed by cost overruns and numerous delays. Instead of canceling the entire project, however, Newsom announced that the state will focus on finishing the line currently under construction, running 171 miles from Merced to Bakersfield – and could open as soon as 2027.

Construction at a site near Fresno, Calif., for the new high-speed rail tracks. Photo: Jim Wilson/The New York Times

John Myers

@johnmyers

Just in: Trump administration tells CA it’s backing out of $929 million grant to high-speed rail project and “is actively exploring every legal option” to get back the $2.5 billion already given to the effort. This comes one week after Newsom’s statement on HSR troubles.

The decision to yank the grant money and claw back the billions in federal funds comes one day after California filed a lawsuit along with 15 other states challenging President Trump’s emergency declaration on the border.

The $77 billion Los Angeles-to-San Francisco bullet train, which has been a goal of California transportation planners for decades, has long faced opposition from Mr. Trump and other Republicans. But on Tuesday morning, the president explicitly tied the rail line to efforts to stymie construction of the Mexican border wall. –New York Times

Trump slammed California’s decision to sue, noting on Tuesday over Twitter that “The failed Fast Train project in California, where the cost overruns are becoming world record setting, is hundreds of times more expensive than the desperately needed Wall!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The failed Fast Train project in California, where the cost overruns are becoming world record setting, is hundreds of times more expensive than the desperately needed Wall!

One day after California canceled the project, President Trump tweeted of California: “They owe the Federal Government three and a half billion dollars. We want that money back now. Whole project is a “green” disaster!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

California has been forced to cancel the massive bullet train project after having spent and wasted many billions of dollars. They owe the Federal Government three and a half billion dollars. We want that money back now. Whole project is a “green” disaster!

And on Wednesday, Trump tweeted: “California now wants to scale back their already failed “fast train” project by substantially shortening the distance so that it no longer goes from L.A. to San Francisco. A different deal and record cost overruns. Send the Federal Government back the Billions of Dollars WASTED!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

California now wants to scale back their already failed “fast train” project by substantially shortening the distance so that it no longer goes from L.A. to San Francisco. A different deal and record cost overruns. Send the Federal Government back the Billions of Dollars WASTED!

Newsom slammed the DOT decision as retaliation for the border lawsuit, saying in a statement. “It’s no coincidence that the administration’s threat comes 24 hours after California led 16 states in challenging the president’s farcical ‘national emergency,’” adding “This is clear political retribution by President Trump, and we won’t sit idly by. This is California’s money, and we are going to fight for it.

On Tuesday, Trump hit back – disparaging the way California wasted the rail money, as well as the state’s decision to spearhead the national emergency lawsuit.

“California, the state that has wasted billions of dollars on their out of control Fast Train, with no hope of completion, seems in charge!” tweeted Trump on Tuesday.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

As I predicted, 16 states, led mostly by Open Border Democrats and the Radical Left, have filed a lawsuit in, of course, the 9th Circuit! California, the state that has wasted billions of dollars on their out of control Fast Train, with no hope of completion, seems in charge!

Ronald Batory – administrator of the Federal Railroad Administration wrote that the federal funds were being pulled after the California High-Speed Rail Authority had “failed to make reasonable progress on the project.”

The Transportation Department said in a separate statement on Tuesday that it was “actively exploring every legal option” to seek the return of the $2.5 billion. That threat, however, was not mentioned in Mr. Batory’s letter.

Late Tuesday, a Trump administration official pointed to Mr. Newsom’s remarks last week as an indication that the project was too costly and would “never be constructed as planned.”

Given that acknowledgment, the official said, the administration had a responsibility to taxpayers to “cancel the financial support for this boondoggle.” –New York Times

There may be hope for California’s $929 million, however, as former chairman of the board of the high-speed rail project, Dan Richard (who stepped down last Thursday), noted that the federal notice reads that the Trump administration intends to terminate the agreement, rather than saying it was canceling it outright.

Richard believes this may give California room to negotiate.

“Of course it’s a serious matter — the federal government has a lot of power in this situation,” said Richard, adding: “I’m hoping that the phrase ‘intends to terminate’ gives an opportunity for parties to resolve this issue.

The high speed rail project was going to be former California Governor Jerry Brown’s legacy.

 

end

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

Kuroda Says Stronger Yen Could Force BOJ’s Hand on Stimulus

In a rare explicit coupling of policy and the yen, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the Bank of Japan would have to consider additional stimulus if the exchange rate affected Japan’s inflation and economy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-19/kuroda-says-stronger-yen-could-force-boj-s-hand-on-stimulus

Kuroda flags BOJ’s readiness to ease further, yen slips

Kuroda repeated that possible easing tools the BOJ could deploy included cutting short- and long-term interest rates, expanding asset buying or accelerating the pace of money printing

      “We will continue our ETF buying while taking into account market moves and the impact on financial institutions, as well as economic and price developments,” Kuroda said…

https://in.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-boj/kuroda-flags-bojs-readiness-to-ease-further-yen-slips-idINKCN1Q80CQ

US Chamber of Commerce: China trade deal ‘fails’ if Washington doesn’t win enforcement measures – This week, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit Washington on Thursday and Friday to continue trade negotiations with the U.S., the Commerce Ministry in Beijing said…

    Enforcement mechanisms could include a “snapback” in tariffs if China doesn’t live up to the terms of the deal, he said. Another option, according to Brilliant, would be for the U.S. to “delay the reduction of tariffs being reduced from 10 percent down to zero” contingent on Beijing’s adherence to the agreement…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/19/us-china-trade-war-deal-needs-enforcement-says-chamber-of-commerce.html

Alibaba is the force behind hit Chinese Communist Party app: sources – The app, which includes short videos, government news stories and quizzes, was created by an Alibaba team…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-alibaba-government/alibaba-is-the-force-behind-hit-chinese-communist-party-app-sources-idUSKCN1Q70Y7

@Jkylebass: Alibaba is the force behind Chinese Communist Party app: Alibaba IS the ccp. Jack Ma has always been ccp and was removed from his post. Who are the “five unnamed individuals” who received his shares? You have to swallow the red pill to believe ccp [Or be a fin media type that doted on Ma]

Investors Ask Who’s Safe in Russia after Fund Manager Arrest

For most of the past three decades, American private equity investor Michael Calvey has made billions for his funds by knowing how to play by the rules — both written and unwritten — in Russia. Now he’s sitting in a Moscow jail facing fraud charges over a deal that went bad… It hired a nationally known former Soviet cosmonaut and an ex-KGB chief to help defuse any tensions that arose… [It’s retaliation for Mueller.]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-19/investors-wonder-who-is-safe-in-russia-after-fund-manager-arrest

Last night John Solomon said he will break a huge story today – a 2nd Fusion GPS dossier to the DoJ.

@realDonaldTrump: Remember this, Andrew McCabe didn’t go to the bathroom without the approval of Leakin’ James Comey!

 

Andrew McCabe: No one in Gang of 8 objected to FBI investigation of Trump

“That’s the important part here, Savannah. No one objected. Not on legal grounds, not on constitutional grounds, and not based on the facts,” McCabe says…

    On the Senate side, the group of lawmakers at the time included Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr, R-N.C., and ranking member Mark Warner, D-Va.  The House members included then-Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and then-Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., as well as former House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes, R-Calif., and then-ranking member Adam Schiff, D-Calif…

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/02/19/andrew-mccabe-no-one-in-gang-of-8-objected-to-fbi-investigation-of-trump.html

 

Nunes: “Andy McCabe was fired from the FBI for lying and leaking, and many of the stories he’s telling on his book tour are transparently self-serving. Although I cannot comment on the content of Gang of Eight briefings it’s preposterous to deny that the FBI was investigating Donald Trump from the moment it opened its investigation in mid-2016.”

 

McCabe slams Loretta Lynch in new book, says Clinton probe should have gone to special counsel

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mccabe-slams-loretta-lynch-in-new-book-says-clinton-probe-should-have-gone-to-special-counsel

 

In normal times, DJT would not be president and would have little chance for re-election.  But DJT is extremely lucky.  The Dems have jumped the shark to the left and its 2020 field is loaded with candidates that are trying to separate from the field by trying to be the biggest socialist.

 

@CNBC: Barney Frank: Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal ‘would be a loser’ for Democrats against Trump in 2020 [During his time, Frank was one of the most liberal reps in Congress.]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/19/barney-frank-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-green-new-deal-would-be-a-loser-against-trump-in-2020.html

 

[Covington Catholic] Teen in Lincoln Memorial protest sues Washington Post for $250 million

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-covington-suit-idUSKCN1Q82SW

 

“I’m Committing Professional Suicide”: CBS Star Reporter Admits “Mostly Liberal” Journalists Are Now “Political Activists” – “85% of journalists are registered Democrats,” Logan said…

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-19/cbs-news-chief-policital-correspondent-breaks-ranks-admits-journalists-are-now

 

@NikkiHaley: Thoughts on Jussie Smollett case: He must be held accountable in the strictest way. He must repay resources used to investigate and serve time for the division he caused. The media should be the most outraged. He played all of them for fools. He knew they would cover it.

 

WaPo: Hundreds of chemical attacks linked to Syrian government, new research shows, mostly after Obama declared ‘red line’ in 2012    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-military-linked-to-more-than-300-chemical-attacks-report-says/2019/02/16/c6e128de-31d4-11e9-ac6c-14eea99d5e24_story.html

end

Let us conclude tonight’s commentary with a great discussion on gold and silver from Craig Hemke/  He states (and I concur) that the bear market in gold and silver is over

(courtesy Craig Hemke/Greg Hunter)

Bear Market in Gold & Silver is Over – Craig Hemke

Financial writer and precious metals expert Craig Hemke says, “The bear market in gold and silver is over.” Hemke contends the central bankers’ price suppression of gold and silver is grinding to a close. Hemke explains, “. . . They created the illusion of physical delivery. What happens when the banks, wanting the gold because it is now a tier 1 asset, say I can’t play this promissory note game anymore? Just like physical demand broke the U.S. for suppression price in the 1950’s and just like physical demand broke the London Gold Pool price in the 1960’s, physical demand will break this fractional reserve and derivative pricing scheme that has worked since 1975. It’s now going to fail too. . . . Anybody that has one ounce of gold will be darn glad they have it when the time comes.”Hemke says there are several factors leading to the perfect storm of price explosion for precious metals. On April 1st, new rules will allow banks to hold gold as a so-called tier 1 asset. Hemke points out, “This is why central banks are buying gold too. . . . Gold will be considered a riskless asset just like Treasury bonds. The way it is currently structured now, if you had $1 billion in gold in your reserves in the bank, you could only count half of that as your reserves. . . . So, $1 billion in gold only counted as $500 million. Now, it will count for the full $1billion.”

So, central banks will want to shoot this to the moon? Hemke says, “Right. Yes, and wait until the regular banks get involved in this too. Here is the last piece of the puzzle. It expressly states in the Basel III (capital requirements) terms that derivatives don’t count. None of these forward contracts, promissory notes or unallocated metal count. You cannot use derivatives and say I want 100% value on the banks’ books because that all has counter-party risk. The only gold you can use that is considered risk free is physical gold that is audited and shown to be in your vault—period, end of story. Put that on top of Indian demand, China demand, Russia demand, central bank demand . . . and you see this system and you can see how all these pieces fit together, and when you ask me why I think we are going back to new all-time highs in the next 18 months, I can say yes. That’s what I think, yes.”

As far as gold and silver prices in the future, Hemke predicts, “A collapse of the scheme they cooked up. . . . This scheme of digital alchemy, this make-believe gold, getting people to accept gold exposure as an alternative to the real thing, is going to collapse too.”

Hemke says watch the palladium market. It is highly leveraged, and that could be the first metal market to fall when people demand delivery and say ‘I want my metal.’ Hemke says, “Right, that’s when the music stops, and that is what we are all waiting for.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Craig Hemke, founder of TFMetalsReport.com.

.

-END-

-END-

I WILL SEE YOU THURSDAY NIGHT
HARVEY

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