FEB 28/FINALLY OPTIONS EXPIRY IS OVER BUT NOT BEFORE THE CROOKS RAID GOLD BY $4.90 TO $1314.70//SILVER HIT FOR 12 CENTS AT $15.61//IN GOLD: 1.04 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY//IN SILVER A HUGE 23.2 MILLION OZ STANDING//STRESS AT THE GOLD COMEX AS REGISTERED GOLD LOSES ALMOST 5 TONNES TO REST AT 15 TONNES//TRUMP WALKS AWAY FROM KIM POW WOW!//CHINA RELEASES A HUGE CONTRACTIONARY PMI (BELOW 50)//SWAMP STORIES//

 

 

 

GOLD: $1314.70 DOWN $4.90 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.61 DOWN 12 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1313.00

 

silver: $15.60

 

 

 

 

 

/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

MARCH

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 126 NOTICE(S) FOR 15200 OZ (0.3919 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  126 NOTICES FOR 12600 OZ  (.3919 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEBRUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

3319 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 16,950,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3319 for 16,950,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3838:UP $20

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3850  DOWN 1

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today  41/116

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,317.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/27/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 03/01/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 67
661 C JP MORGAN 41
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
690 C ABN AMRO 22
709 C BARCLAYS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 33 19
800 C MAREX SPEC 33
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 6
905 C ADM 26
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 126 126
MONTH TO DATE: 126

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 7392 CONTRACTS FROM 206447 DOWN TO 199,055 WITH YESTERDAY’S TINY 14 CENTS LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE ALWAYS WITNESS A CONTRACTION IN TOTAL OI AS WE APPROACH FIRST DAY NOTICE AND IT SEEMS THE CULPRIT IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

2843 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2843 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2843 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2843 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 22.75 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 14 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

AND NOW: 23.315 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 29,480 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 29,480 CONTRACTS) OR 147.400 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1551 CONTRACTS OR 7.757 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB:  147.4 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 21.05% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          352.41    MILLION OZ. (CORRECTED)

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2-19 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 7392 WITH THE 14 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2843 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED: 4549 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2843 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 7392 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 14 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.73 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.995 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 157% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 3399 NOTICE(S) FOR 16,950,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/AND NOW MARCH: 23.315 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4079 CONTRACTS UP TO 497,189 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.80//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  GOOD SIZED 6469 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 6469 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 497,189. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE  A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2390 CONTRACTS: 4079 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6469 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN 2390 CONTRACTS OR 239,000 = 7.433 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $6.80.

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 4593 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY : 107,130 CONTRACTS OR 10,713,000 OZ  OR 344.36 TONNES (19 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5,638 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 344.36 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 344.36/2550 x 100% TONNES = 13.49% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     852.26  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4079 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($6.80) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6469 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6469 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 2390 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6469 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4079 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 7.433 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS OF $6.80 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??

 

 

we had:  126 notice(s) filed upon for 12600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY 

 

 

NO  CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   788.33 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 788.31 tonnes.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..///

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 7392 CONTRACTS from 206,447 DOWN TO 199,055 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

2843 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2843 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 7392 CONTRACTS TO THE 2843 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A LOSS  OF 4549  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 22.75 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY AND NOW 23.315 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH.

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 14 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED 2843 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. THE LOSS IN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER WAS CAUSED BY THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS…IT HAD NO EFFECT ON PRICE..TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.87 POINTS OR 0.44% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 124.26 POINTS OR 0.43%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 171.35 POINTS OR 0.79%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.31%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.6827 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 56.75 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.31 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.6827 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6840: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

Trump walks as Rocket Man wants sanctions relief prior to his denuclearization.  This does not bode well for the Chinese trade talks as obviously China interfered.  They need North Korea as a buffer.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

i) CHINA/

 

i)This is awful for China as their PMI plunges into contraction yuan.  No wonder the PBOC flooded its economy with a huge 4.64 trillion yuan stimulus

( zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/USA FORD//
Conditions inside China is not good as Ford is laying off thousands from its Chinese joint venture
(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)Huawei in court today as they are accused by T Mobile for stealing trade secrets.( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)UK

 

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel

Amazing, Israeli Attorney General indicts Netanyahu on charges of bribery even though no money exchanged..only favourable press and that is not a breach of Trust.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)Yesterday, tanks are massing on the Pakistan border as India is furious with that attack.

( zerohedge)

ii)Pakistan to release the captured Indian pilot as a “goodwill gesture”. However Pakistan needs another bailout from the IMF

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil retreats below 57 dollars after the uSA desires to sell oil from its SPR

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)VENEZUELA/

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

I)Venezuela took 8 tonnes of gold from the central bank and pundits believe that they are going to sell it illegally
(courtesy Reuters)

II)We wish the government of Romania all the best as it tries to repatriate its 61 tonnes of gold held at the Bank of England.  They were told that they could earn an income on that gold if they leased it out.  Now they want it back…we wish them  luck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

 

ii)Market data

a)The biggest bunch of horse manure..the USA surprisingly grew by 2.6% in the 4th quarter instead of 2.2%. The numbers were fudged.

( zerohedge)

b)We are now into complete phony data reporting.  Soft data Chicago PMI spikes to Dec 2017 which makes no sense.
(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Graham Summers explains beautifully how the Fed has lost all credibility.  They are going to stop the roll off on its balance sheet when their assets hit 3.5 trillion or 16% of GDP.  This should occur in the 3rd quarter and that is when you go all in for gold/silver

( Graham Summers)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

Cohen is accused of perjury and making numerous willfully and intentionally false statements during his testimony

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4079 CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 497,189 WITH THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($6.80) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR THREE YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES., THE REASON FOR THE COLLAPSE IN OPEN INTEREST IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS. WE WITNESSED THE ABOVE PHENOMENA IN SILVER STARTING TODAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6469 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 6469, FOR JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS AND FINALLY DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6469 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 4045 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6469 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4079 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:2390 contracts OR 239,000  OZ OR 7.43 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MARCH and here the open interest stands at 335 contracts,….and thus by definition the initial amount of gold standing is as follows:

335 notices x 100  =  33500 oz or 1.041 tonnes.

 

 

The next non active delivery month after  March is  the non active delivery month is April and here the OI FELL by 8947 contracts down to 341,648 contracts.

After April, the next active delivery month is June and here the OI stands at 86,751 having gained 4660 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 126 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 12600 OZ. (0.3919 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 7392 CONTRACTS FROM 206,447 DOWN TO 206,055(AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S FAIR OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 14 CENT LOSS IN PRICING. 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS 4642 CONTRACTS, THUS BY DEFINITION THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IN MARCH IS AS FOLLOWS:

4442 CONTRACTS X  5,000 OZ PER CONTRACT  =  22.210 MILLION OZ.

 

 

.

 

 

 

AFTER MARCH, WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.  HERE: APRIL ADVANCES TO 784 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 122 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ADVANCED BY 2823 CONTRACTS UP TO 146,114 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 4549 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 7392 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2843 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4549 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS LOSS OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 14 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 3319 notice(s) filed for 16,950,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  237,698  CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  221,784  contracts

comex gold volumes are getting extremely low as players just do not want to play in this casino.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Initial standings for  MAR/GOLD

FEB 28 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
126 notice(s)
 12600 OZ
(0.3919 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
209 contracts
(20900 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
126 notices
12600 OZ
.3919 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i

 

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer; nil  oz

we had 4  adjustments… and this is what I wanted to see all month:  adjustments out of the dealer and into the customer account and that shows settlements.
i) Out of Brinks: 55,957.097 oz
ii) Out of Delaware:  10,375.529 oz
iii) Out of HSBC: 63,202.737 oz
iv) Out of Scotia:  7720.385 oz
total: 137,255.385 oz or 4.26 tonnes
we need many more like this to show how the 38.4 tonnes was settled in February.

FOR THE MAR 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 126 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 41 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (126) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (335 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (126 x 100 oz per contract) equals 33,500OZ OR 1.041 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of MARCH

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (126 x 100 oz)  + {335)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (126 x 100 oz )which equals 33500 oz standing OR 1.041 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  513,356.628 oz or  15.967 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,162,488 .910 oz 253.88 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON FEBRUARY 2019 TO THE  FEBRUARY 2018 COMEX GOLD CONTRACT MONTH & MARCH 2018 VS MARCH 2019 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

ON FEB 1.2018: 20.07 TONNES OF GOLD STOOD FOR DELIVERY, BUT BY THE END OF MONTH ONLY 8.55 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

ON FEB 27.2018 WE HAD 995 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING (2 DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE)  VS FEB 26.2019:  539 CONTRACTS.(2 DAYS BEFORE FDN)

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 1/2018: TOTAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 2.1524 TONNES

THE FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE: MARCH 31/2018:  1.6114 TONNES AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 29 MONTHS 101 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH

MAR INITIAL standings/SILVER

FEB 26 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
23,183.760 oz
CNT
Delaware
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,184,856.800
oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
3319
CONTRACT(S)
16,595,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1323 contracts
6,615,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3319 contracts

(16,950,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.26 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.61% of all official comex silver. (150.26 million/296 million)

 

i) Into CNT: 1,184.856.800 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 1,184,856.800   oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of CNT:: 20,122.800 oz

ii) out of Delaware: 991.70 oz

iii) Out of Brinks: 2069.26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 23,183.760     oz

 

we had 3 adjustments

 

i) Out of CNT; 4,602,821.160  oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account

(somebody needed silver in a hurry)

ii) Out of Brinks:  45,839.300 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and back into the customer account of Brinks

iii) Out of HSBC: 34,819.940 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and back into the customer account of HSBC

the latter two were settlements.

 

 

total dealer silver:  93.448 million

total dealer + customer silver:  298.844 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MARCH 2019. contract month is represented by 3319 contract(s) FOR  95,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3319 x 5,000 oz = 16,595,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (4642) and the number of notices served upon today (3319 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 3319(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR( 4642) -number of notices served upon today (3319)x 5000 oz equals 23,210,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FEB 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 670,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  AT THE MONTH’S CONCLUSION WE HAD 2.035 MILLION OZ STAND AS WE WITNESSED QUEUE JUMPING ON A REGULAR BASIS AT THE SILVER COMEX.

 

ON MARCH 1.2018 WE HAD 24.670 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STAND FOR DELIVERY. BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE DELIVERY MONTH, 27.190 MILLION OZ STOOD AS QUEUE JUMPING IN THE SILVER COMEX ARENA HAD BEEN THE NORM FOR QUITE A WHILE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  63,540 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 91,577 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 191,577 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 457 million OZ  65.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.16% (FEB 28/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.92% to NAV (FEB 28 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.16%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.27/TRADING 12.84/DISCOUNT 3.12

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33 TONNES

FEB 26  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

 

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.99 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/ A SURPRISE GAIN (DEPOSIT) OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.50 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

FEB 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: WE HAD ANOTHER PAPER RAID (WITHDRAWAL) OF 2.04 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES/

FEB 13:/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER RAID BY OUR CROOKED BANKERS AS THEY WITHDREW ANOTHER 2.23 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.89 TONNES

FEB 12: WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO WHACK OUR PRECIOUS METAL TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.00/THE CROOKS WITHDREW ANOTHER HUGE 6.59 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.29 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP 35 CENTS/ANOTHER PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 811.82 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 813.29 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i)A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.37 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM THE GLD AND THEN ii) a A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.40 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

J

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

FEB 28/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 788.31 tonnes

*IN LAST 552 TRADING DAYS: 145,72 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 452 TRADING DAYS: A NET 14.23 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS//A  SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 610,000 OZ//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ/

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT; NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/RESTS AT 309.984

FEB 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ/

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS: SURPRISINGLY A DEPOSIT OF 1.688 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: A DEPOSIT OF 423,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ

FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 306.935 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT TH SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999  MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000  OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ.

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 129,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY  RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

 

FEB 28/2019:

 

Inventory 309.374 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.20/ and libor 6 month duration 2.69

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .49

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.46%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.87

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.41

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

Gold Is A Global Thermometer Of Risk” – CEO Q+A: Stephen Flood, GoldCore

In Business and Finance, Ireland’s leading business magazine, latest CEO Q+A, speak to Stephen Flood, CEO of GoldCore, about the global economy, debt levels, and making the most of your personal strengths.


Q. What are your main priorities and goals in your role?

To provide a convenient, efficient and most importantly safe way of owning gold bullion for clients who want to hedge financial and economic risks.

We believe that most investors are wholly unprepared for the next recession and any oncoming volatility.

We may well be on the verge of the next financial crisis, with risks building throughout the economy and global markets. And it’s for these reasons that we believe it has never been more important to have a financial insurance in the form of precious metals.

As CEO I share the common goals of the business which are:

  • To increase assets held in our GoldCore Secure Storage programme. Last year we grew the total assets by 24%
  • To increase awareness of precious metal ownership as part of a diversified portfolio of assets. Numerous studies confirm that gold can reduce investment and pension portfolios volatility and enhance returns in the long term
  • To use cutting edge technology to increase the efficiency for clients looking to buy, sell, take delivery and store gold and silver bullion in the safest ways.

Q. What are your biggest challenges as CEO?

Finding enough time in the day!

One bug bear is the manipulation of search engines by other providers in our industry. The public are increasingly being herded by dominant “Disinformation Technology” companies. Often it seems that value and service are not enough to win and hold position, instead investing in search engine technology and online advertising at the expense of product development appears to be the core focus of some organisations.

Increased regulation and transparency is needed to ensure fairness in the market – as it is how 90% of searches can be dominated by one provider using a secret algorithm!

Q. How do you keep your team/staff motivated?

We are a tight team, communicating and interacting throughout the day. The best motivator is simply having respect and being honest. Empowering team members to expand their skills, understanding and backing them to take risks and take on new responsibilities is key.

Employees now see through many of the “perks” offered by larger companies and they ring shallow. I believe that 90% of the time I work for my employees, making sure that they have the skills and tools they need to realise their potential and play their role in our organisation. 10% of the time I set the tone for where we are going as an organisation.

Goals are 360 degrees and multi-faceted: increasing income, reducing risks, continuously improving our offering. I celebrate when an employee takes me to task without fear if I have dropped the ball – this is organisational strength, there are no sacred cows, although I have been called worse, I am sure!

Everyone in our company knows that building gold storage assets is our key commercial goal, but not at any cost. Since our foundation in 2003, our client’s welfare has always come first, and we also believe that our goals and that of our clients can and must be symbiotic.

Q. What are the challenges facing the industry going forward?

Our industry is buffeted by a number of factors. The price of gold, crypto-currencies, government regulation, competitive forces and the changing face of consumer information sources have all served to drive up the demand for gold at various times. We operate in a very tight margin business, managing financial risks is key. It also makes life very interesting and we never have a dull day.

I would like to see more industry regulation as there are a number of cowboy operators who should not be operating at all and they see clients as nothing but fodder. We have seen companies selling what they claim to be pure gold coins which are in fact gold plated coins!

Q. What new trends are emerging in your industry?

Gold is a global thermometer of risk. We believe that debt levels are unsustainable, and the risk of a disorderly default is increasing every day. Economic inequality is increasing, and political systems are facing massive disruption.

All of this occurs because of the corrosive effects of printed money which arguably tempered the worst effects of the Global Financial Crisis but have now been left in place due to political comfort and expediency.

Our global debt is now at 340% of GDP, up from 220% during the last Financial crisis – madness! History tell us this ends badly. The last time our economies were so unequal was in the 1930’s and we all know how that ended.

In terms of trends, we see the biggest test facing the EU is not from Brexit, but a disorderly exit of Italy. I see a new banking crisis emerging and spreading far faster than previously thought. This could come from the corporate debt market or China. Crypto money alternatives are a grass roots movement to take back personal sovereignty from what is perceived as a rigged system.

Opportunities will be considerable as those with expandable balance sheets will be gifted with cut price assets during any fire sale that ensues. The biggest opportunity globally will be the technologies that emerge from blockchain technologies – we are at the beginning of the next industrial and technological revolution. Our current systems and process will look positively antiquated when compared to the sheer enormity of what block-chain and its derivatives will bring.

Q. As an employer are you finding any skill gaps in the market?

I think some students come out of third level education without the practical skills needed in real. Creating apprenticeships within courses would be a great way of aligning the youthful creativity of newcomers, with the deep sector knowledge of industry.

If, as I suspect, every industry vertical will be utterly transformed in the next 10 years as blockchain permeates, it will be those organisations with the most nimble, creative and competent staff that will succeed.

An education system run by professors and lecturers that are not also actively engaged in industry is not fit for purpose. Our teachers must be thought leaders.

Q.  How did your strategy develop in the context of the banking crisis and economic crisis?

In 2003 we saw the relentless build-up of credit combined with the fall in lending oversight as having obvious ramifications. Credit has a place, but when capital appreciation and credit availability solely drive purchase decisions trouble ensues. We were vocal in warning that an Irish financial crisis and global financial crisis were coming, and that gold would protect investors. This came to pass.

Q. How will Brexit affect you, or have you started to feel the effects already?

No one can really know the impact as the final arrangement has not yet been agreed. We suspect a cobbled solution will be put in place at the last minute. The real risk though is the precedent it sets and, in my view, it greatly increases the likely hood of an EU crisis and possible demise. It is important to watch Italy.

Currently we are seeing more demand for a Dublin Secure storage location. It is a high security vault that meets the Bank of England vault security standards. We will be able to store gold bullion securely for clients privately, as part of their pensions and also for companies. It will act as a deposit account in a superior currency.

Interestingly, unlike bank accounts, the gold held will not be a liability for the client as it is not held on our balance sheet but rather it is held on the client’s balance sheet. We act merely as a custodian and not a creditor.

We believe with Brexit looming an allocation of least 10 % has never been more important. But bullion must be held in professional vaulted facilities where the gold is continuously monitored, liquid and competitively priced.

Q. How do you define success and what drives you to succeed?

For me success is making the most of your own personal strengths.

Time and health are the most important resources we have. Applying yourself to your environment for the betterment of your community, family and your own development is a worthy goal. I find that many people spend their valuable lives beavering away on singular projects at the cost of everything else.

In my 20’s I worked for Goldman Sachs in New York as a sales trader on one of the most powerful trading desks in the world. I decided that while it was an exciting place to be in my 20’s, and I loved every minute working with some of the most incredibly talented people I had ever met, it was not a life that would allow me to have and enjoy a family and to be a Dad. So I left and returned home, partnering with my friend in our own business in Dublin and have never looked back.

I don’t work evenings, or weekends, I have breakfast with my kids and dinner most days.

For me mental health, productive work and a balanced life is key. The secret to happiness is not to mindlessly seek happiness all the time dwelling on what you need or don’t have, it is enjoying what you have and the relationships with the people all around you.

Q. What’s the best advice you’ve been given, or would give, in business?

All business primarily comes down to one single formula: Taking unique knowledge from where it resides and delivering it to where it is needed. Once you understand this, you can approach any opportunity and decide if it is a worthy activity. Business is about the delivery of services and products, simply. Business needs excellent teams, with people who work well together and get the best from each other.

Knowing your customers, how they think, how they evaluate, where they go for information is also key. Never stop innovating but also don’t lose focus in the core offering. Let data inform decisions, but also trust your gut. Always challenge yourself and your biases and debate with people who you would not normally agree with.

Q. What have been your highlights in business over the past year?

Recently launching Dublin Storage has been great. It is a first in Ireland and we believe it will be instrumental in supporting the financial health of Irish consumers, investors and companies. We also launched the new site which allows new clients to buy up to €50,000 worth of gold in just 3 minutes on their smart phone or computer – a first in the industry and a real win for our User Experience approach.

Q. What’s next for your company?

We are ready for Brexit and related issues. We are currently working on an institutional gold investment offering in the Middle East which is really exciting. It will be the largest consumer bullion storage service in the region and has been designed by GoldCore and our local partners. We are also exploring how to get involved in the block-chain space.

Q. Where do you want your business/brand to be this time next year?

We see ourselves reaching more and more Irish investors, pension owners and company’s clients through referral and word of mouth. Our GoldCore Secure Storage programme in Dublin has turned a lot of heads and many financial and pension advisers are seeking to store their client’s gold in Ireland for the first time.

“All business primarily comes down to one single formula: Taking unique knowledge from where it resides and delivering it to where it is needed.”

Courtesy of Business and Finance

 

News and Commentary

Gold near 2-week lows as dollar rebounds over trade caution (Reuters.com)

Venezuela removed 8 tons of central bank gold last week (Reuters.com)

Trump says he walked from deal with North Korea’s Kim over sanction demands (Reuters.com)

Bitcoin regains its footing after recent selloff, man charged in $6M gold-crypto fraud scheme (MarketWatch.com)

Dumb bank burglars left gold bars strewn across vault floor (TheGuardian.com)

Consumers, weak exports seen curbing U.S. fourth-quarter growth (Reuters.com)

Gold Market Still Bullish – Ira Epstein (GoldSeek.com)

Will Hedge Funds Ramp Up Their Bullish Gold Bets? (GoldSeek.com)

Make-Believe Gold and Silver Scheme Going to Collapse (Youtube.com)

The Perth Mint Has Recast This Gold Bar More Than 65,000 Times (Bloomberg.com)

City of London Faces New Hurdles to EU Markets After Brexit (Bloomberg.com)

10Y Treasurys Suddenly Tumble Amid Rate-Lock Curve Selloff (ZeroHedge.com)

Listen on iTunes,Blubrry & SoundCloud  & watch on YouTube above

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

27 Feb: USD 1,326.45, GBP 998.02 & EUR 1,164.09 per ounce
26 Feb: USD 1,327.55, GBP 1005.79 & EUR 1,168.11 per ounce
25 Feb: USD 1,329.15, GBP 1016.80 & EUR 1,170.32 per ounce
22 Feb: USD 1,322.25, GBP 1016.15 & EUR 1,166.49 per ounce
21 Feb: USD 1,335.05, GBP 1021.85 & EUR 1,177.78 per ounce
20 Feb: USD 1,345.75, GBP 1032.86 & EUR 1,186.82 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

27 Feb: USD 15.86, GBP 11.91 & EUR 13.92 per ounce
26 Feb: USD 15.83, GBP 11.98 & EUR 13.93 per ounce
25 Feb: USD 15.95, GBP 12.19 & EUR 14.04 per ounce
22 Feb: USD 15.87, GBP 12.20 & EUR 14.00 per ounce
21 Feb: USD 15.91, GBP 12.19 & EUR 14.02 per ounce
20 Feb: USD 16.03, GBP 12.31 & EUR 14.15 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– U.S. Mint Suspends Silver Bullion Coin Sales After Sales Double In February
– MMT: Modern Monetary Madness Will Lead To Higher Taxes and Inflation
– Gold Broker Has Good Sense and Prefers Gold To All That Glitters (The Times)
– The Utterly Unbelievable Scale of U.S. Debt Right Now
– The Best Time In History To Buy GOLD
– Jim Willie Interviews Mark O’Byrne – Prepare Now For Global Financial Crisis II
– 7 Major Flaws Of The Global Financial System – Excellent Infographic
– The Case for Gold In 2019 – The Economist
– Invest In Gold As a Hedge In Cashless Society – Ex IMF Rogoff

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
 Venezuela took 8 tonnes of gold from the central bank and pundits believe that they are going to sell it illegally
(courtesy Reuters)

Venezuelan regime took 8 tons of gold from central bank last week, Reuters says

 Section: 

By Corina Pons and Mayela Armas
Reuters
Wednesday, February 27, 2019

CARACAS, Venezuela — At least 8 tons of gold were removed from the Venezuelan central bank’s vaults last week, an opposition legislator and three government sources told Reuters, in the latest sign of President Nicolas Maduro’s desperation to raise hard currency amid tightening sanctions.

The gold was removed in government vehicles between Wednesday and Friday last week when there were no regular security guards present at the bank, Legislator Angel Alvarado and the three government sources said.

… 

They plan to sell it abroad illegally,” Alvarado said in an interview.

The central bank did not respond to requests for comment.

Alvarado and the government sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, did not say where the central bank was sending the gold. They said the operation took place while central bank head Calixto Ortega was abroad on a trip. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-gold-exclusive/exclusive-ve…

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

Uzbekistan plans to significantly increase its gold, uranium reserves

27 February 2019 17:50 (UTC+04:00)578

Uzbekistan expects an increase in gold reserves in the country in 2020-2024 by 474 tons and uranium by 32,000 tons. In monetary terms, this is equivalent to $ 18.7 billion.

This is stated in the Concept of the geological industry development, put up for public discussion until March 13.

As noted in the draft concept of the development of the geological industry of Uzbekistan for 2020-2024, developed by the State Committee on Geology and Mineral Resources, the country intends to increase the gold and uranium reserves thanks to geological exploration

https://www.azernews.az/region/146420.html

end

We wish the government of Romania all the best as it tries to repatriate its 61 tonnes of gold held at the Bank of England.  They were told that they could earn an income on that gold if they leased it out.  Now they want it back…we wish them  luck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Romania’s ruling party drafts law to repatriate c- bank’s gold reserves

BUCHAREST (Romania), February 28 (SeeNews) – Liviu Dragnea, leader of Romania’s ruling Social Democrat Party, and senator Serban Nicolae have drafted a bill that would require the central bank to repatriate its gold reserves held abroad.

The National Bank of Romania can deposit gold from the established reserve abroad exclusively for the purpose of obtaining income through trading and other specific operations. The gold deposited by the National Bank of Romania abroad can not exceed 5% of the total gold reserve,” says the draft law published on the website of the Romanian Senate on Wednesday evening.

According to the explanatory statement accompanying the draft, nothing in Romania’s current economic situation justifies the keeping of such amount of gold as a reserve abroad, with all related pricey costs, provided that this reserve can be properly maintained and supplemented in domestic deposits.

When asked by local TV station Digi 24 whether the government plans to use the gold reserve to cover budget deficit like Italy is considering to, senator Nicolae denied that this is the idea, saying the draft law only aims to recover the gold and keep it in Romania.

The gold reserves held by Romania’s central bank BNR totalled 103.7 tonnes and were worth 3.84 billion euro ($4.37 billion) at current international prices at the end of January, according to the latest data available.

According to local media reports, some 61 tonnes of BNR’s gold reserves are being held at the Bank of England. Romania would need the approval of the European Central Bank (ECB) for repatrating the gold, Florin Citu, member of parliament from opposition National Liberal Party said in an interview with local TV station Realitatea.

-END-

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.6827/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.6840   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 12.87 POINTS OR 0.44% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 124.26 POINTS OR 0.43%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 171.35 POINTS OR 0.79%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 95.84/Euro RISES TO 1.1414

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.70/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.75 and Brent: 66.31

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN  /OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.16%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.77% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.16%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.61: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.66

3k Gold at $1325.40 silver at:15.81   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 5/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.72

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.76 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9933 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1337 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.16%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.66% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.05%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3162

 

Futures Fall After Dismal Chinese Data, Korea Summit Ends In Chaos

The recent market weakness continued, and the S&P pulled further back from the 2800 “quadruple-top” overnight, as global stocks dropped for a third day following the latest disappointing PMI data out of China and an unexpected and abrupt collapse to the U.S.-North Korea summit added to investor fears of a rapidly slowing economy, and as the dollar slumped further, safe havens such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, as well as gold, all gained.

Just two weeks after announcing it had injected more credit into its economy than the GDP of Saudi Arabia, overnight China disappointed again when it reported its February manufacturing PMIs which tumbled deeper into contraction territory even as the Non-mfg PMI also missed expectations: the Mfg PMI dropped to 49.2, below the 49.5 expected as the index of new export orders tumbled to 45.2 from 46.9 – falling at their fastest pace since the global financial crisis – while the non-manufacturing PMI, which reflects activity in the construction and services sectors, also fell, to 54.3 compared with 54.7 in January.

Following the latest slow down in China, European miners led the drop in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index and copper declined amid fresh fears about the global economic slowdown, while Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures all fell, as the Citi Economic Surprise Index dropped to a fresh 18 month low.

Earlier, South Korean shares were the biggest losers in Asia after President Trump and Kim Jong Un departed the summit venue in Hanoi without a deal, even though expectations for a breakthrough were low. Trump and Kim Jong Un had constructive discussions on denuclearization, the White House said, but news of the summit’s early break-up triggered flight-to-quality bids in safe assets. Riskier assets took a hit, with stocks across the board lower in Europe after the start of trading. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell more than half a percent. 

That followed a retreat in Asian equities, which took a hit on a lack of progress on trade issues between China and the U.S. and data showing factory activity contracting to a three-year low in China. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7 percent following the latest dour comments from U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer who told U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday that U.S. issues with China are “too serious” to be resolved with promises from Beijing to purchase more U.S. goods, and any deal between the two countries must include a way to ensure commitments are met. The USTR also later clarified in a statement that it was not abandoning the threat of increasing the tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent.

“This is likely to be the sort of trade deal that comes through: enough of a deal, or delays of further taxes to enable equities to stay supported while still allowing enough room for U.S. President Trump to criticize China on the campaign trail next year,” said Paul Donovan, chief global economist at UBS Wealth Management. “In many ways this indefinite delay in the consequences are reminiscent of the deal agreed between Trump and one of the many EU Presidents Juncker last year.”

“One suspects trade headlines will continue to throw around sentiment for a while yet. The issues are complex, the trade-offs real, and opinions divided,” ANZ strategists said in a note.

As a result of another busy overnight session, the MSCI’s All-Country World Index was 0.2% lower on the day and down for a third day running. Treasuries climbed, most European bond slipped and the dollar held steady.

In overnight central bank news, Bank of Korea maintained its 7-day repo rate at 1.75% as expected, the decision was unanimous. The KRW immediately experienced marginal weakness as policymakers kept in mind the country’s declining exports, rising unemployment and the slowdown in Chinese growth. At the press conference, Governor Lee the central bank is to maintain accommodative rate policy although it is not time to consider easing policy rates.

In currency markets, the Swiss franc and yen led gains among G10 currencies as demand for havens climbed after President Donald Trump’s second summit with Kim Jong Un ended without an agreement, while the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies fell 0.1 percent at 96.041. The index had edged up 0.1 percent on Wednesday, pulling away from a three-week trough as Treasury yields rose ahead of the release of U.S. fourth-quarter GDP data later on Thursday.  USD/JPY slid as much as 0.3% after Japan’s factory output posted the biggest decline in a year in January, while USD/CHF slipped 0.4%. Dollar-yen hit session- lows as leveraged funds in Tokyo exited intraday longs in defensive reaction to the Trump-Kim news, according to an Asia- based FX trader.

“Headlines on a shortened Trump-Kim summit lifted the yen as the uncertainty sparked a bit of risk-off moves,” said Jun Kato, chief market analyst at Shinkin Asset Management in Tokyo

The euro jumped 0.4% to $1.1412, a 4 week high, after slipping 0.15 percent on Wednesday. Sweden’s krona rallied by the most in two weeks against the euro and yields on Swedish benchmark bonds surged after stronger-than-forecast growth data.

Oil prices fell on Thursday amid weakening factory output in China and Japan and record U.S. crude output, although markets remained relatively well supported by supply cuts led by producer club OPEC. Brent (-0.8%) and WTI (-0.6%) prices are negative but trading within a very narrow USD 1/oz range as risk sentiment was hampered for the abovementioned reasons.

Expected data include jobless claims, annualized GDP and Chicago Business Barometer. CIBC, Autodesk, Dell Technologies, Marriott, and VMware are among companies due to report earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,786.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 371.22
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 159.07
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 522.82
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 21,385.16
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,607.66
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 28,633.18
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 2,940.95
  • Sensex down 0.1% to 35,854.04
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,168.99
  • Kospi down 1.8% to 2,195.44
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.161%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1392
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 7.9 bps to 2.425%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 1.176%
  • Brent futures down 0.9% to $65.80/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,324.87
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 95.98

Top Overnight News

  • The U.S. won’t accept a trade deal with China that merely commits the Chinese to buy more American goods, a scenario U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer dismissed as the “soybean solution,” in reference to promises to buy more American soybeans. “This administration is pressing for significant structural changes that would allow for a more level playing field,” Lighthizer said. “We need new rules.”
  • Confidence among U.K. businesses plunged to a seven-year low this month and consumers remained pessimistic about the economic outlook as lawmakers failed to provide further clarity about the nation’s exit from the European Union
  • In Wednesday’s Brexit debate, one of the Anti-European Conservatives seemed to have heeded May’s warning that continued obstinacy would jeopardize their entire project. “The choice is no longer perhaps between an imperfect deal and no deal, but between an imperfect deal and no Brexit,” Edward Leigh, a long-standing euroskeptic, told Parliament
  • The first official gauge of China’s manufacturing sector in February showed activity contracting further, with a series of domestic holidays, the global slowdown and uncertainty from the trade war all likely playing a part
  • Keeping interest rates below zero for too long may hinder the European Central Bank’s policy from trickling down to the economy, according to Francois Villeroy de Galhau. He said normalization of monetary policy is still “desirable” as the current slowdown is mainly due to temporary factors that should fade in the course of the year
  • President Donald Trump said he’s in no rush for North Korea to give up its nuclear arms and tamped down expectations for his second summit with Kim Jong Un, saying that over the long term the talks would be a success
  • The Bank of Japan made changes to the planned purchase ranges and buying frequencies for the key five-to-10-year segment under its monthly bond operations plan for March, when compared with February
  • The Swiss economy returned to growth in the final three months of 2018, dodging the worst of the weakness that hit neighbors to the north and south
  • Keeping interest rates below zero for too long may hinder the European Central Bank’s policy from trickling down to the economy, according to Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau
  • BNP Paribas SA won dismissal of a German lawsuit by a trader seeking 163 million euros ($186 million) for a “fat-finger” mistake in a 2015 transaction

Asian stocks were mixed following a similar lead from Wall Street wherein the Dow and S&P fell for a second consecutive day as investors digested key testimonies from US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Fed Chair Powell. The Dow was also weighed on by shares from UnitedHealth which closed lower by almost 5% whilst the S&P was pressured by the telecom and healthcare sectors. ASX 200 (+0.3%) was kept afloat by its pharma and energy names, while the Nikkei 225 (-0.9%) felt pressure from its heavyweight industrial and machinery sectors. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp (-0.4%) and Hang Seng (-0.4%) initially traded choppy although the latter recovered from opening losses as pharma and finance stocks led the gains. Finally, South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.6%) slipped after index heavyweights Samsung Electronics (-1.8%) and SK Hynix (-4.2%) succumbed to the semiconductor weakness experienced stateside. BoJ Board Member Suzuki says it is important for the BoJ to maintain powerful monetary easing but there is no need to ease further, BoJ must be mindful of a sustainable framework as inflation may remain subdued for a prolonged period. Suzuki said the BoJ does not intend to raise rates now but will act swiftly through market operations if yield rise sharply, he added that overseas tail risk appear to be heightening.

Top Asian News

  • CLO Market’s Japanese Whale Faces Increased Regulatory Scrutiny
  • India Refuses to Negotiate Over Fate of Captured Pilot: Official
  • BOJ Paves Way to Buy Less Bonds as Yields Drop to 2-Year Low
  • Hong Kong Targets Thinly Traded Stock Headache in Strategy Plan
  • It’s D-Day for Netanyahu as He Braces for Possible Indictment

Major European equities are currently flat after opening slightly lower [Euro Stoxx 50 U/C] as risk sentiment deteriorated following reports of no agreement being reached between US President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un; with US President Trump stating they had some options but decided not to take them. The FTSE 100 (-0.7%) is underperforming its counterparts, weighed on by the pounds recent strength; additional downward pressure is exerted by Rolls Royce (-3.4%) at the bottom of the index in spite of strong earnings as the Co. have withdrawn from Boeing’s engine race. British American Tobacco (-2.5%) are in the red in-spite of good earnings; with some analysts attributing this to a lack of guidance for 2019. Sectors are also in the red with some marginal outperformance in telecom names. Other notable movers include, Zalando (+17.6%) who are leading the Stoxx 600 after their Q4 adj. EBIT came in above expectations; AB InBev (+5.1%) are also higher after a beat on their Q4 revenue. Towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600 are Adecco (-4.7%) after the Co. posted a Q4 net loss of EUR 112mln instead of the expected net profit of EUR 150mln.

Top European News

  • Rolls-Royce Shares Drop as Series of Charges Weigh on Business
  • AB InBev Report Allays Concern About Ties to Kraft Meltdown
  • Scandal Contagion Spreads Past Danske in Bank Funding Rounds
  • Sberbank Dividends May Miss Expectations on Denizbank Sale Delay

In FX, super strong Q4 GDP data from Sweden after the surprise contraction in the previous quarter has propelled the Krona through 10.5000 vs the Euro and further above recent lows, but the Franc is also a marked G10 outperformer following sub-forecast Swiss growth in the final 3 months of 2018 and a weaker than expected KoF survey, with Usd/Chf probing below the 100 DMA at 0.9960, while Eur/Chf has slipped under 1.1350. Indeed, the Franc is firmer across the board and clearly benefiting from its premier status as the safest currency destination amidst a storm, with risk sentiment still fragile due to ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, and in wake of the Trump-Kim summit ending without a nuclear agreement. Back to Eur/Sek, nearest technical support level is seen at 10.4550.

  • JPY/EUR – Also firmer into month end, and partly on the aforementioned risk-off or defensive positioning as the Jpy rebounds from 111.00 vs the Dollar yet again (heavy exporter supply touted at the big figure). Eur/Usd has now firmly breached the 1.14 level to the upside, for reference the current high is 1.1418, after surpassing both the 50 and 100 DMA’s, looking ahead is the February 5th high of 1.1441 and prior to this 1.1420. Of note moderate rebalancing sell signals for the Buck are said to be ‘strongest’ against the Euro.
  • AUD/GBP/NZD/CAD – All flat to marginally weaker vs the Greenback, with the Aussie and Kiwi undermined by a 3rd consecutive sub-50.0 Chinese manufacturing PMI overnight after mixed independent impulses via a welcome beat in Australian Q4 Capex vs a deterioration in the NBNZ business outlook for the current month. Hence, Aud/Usd is holding up marginally better than Nzd/Usd within 0.7166-28 and 0.6854-35 respective ranges. Meanwhile, the Pound retains a relatively strong Brexit-related bid, albeit off best levels posted on Wednesday, with Cable pivoting 1.3300 vs its new 1.3351 ytd peak and perhaps wary about hefty option expiry interest at 1.3325 (1 bn). Elsewhere, the Loonie has stalled alongside oil prices and is back around the 1.3150 axis vs its US counterpart, as the DXY continues to skirt 96.000.
  • EM – Unsurprisingly, the KRW has depreciated in disappointment over no breakthrough on a deal between the US and NK, to a low of almost 1125.00 vs the Usd at one stage.

In commodities, Brent (-0.8%) and WTI (-0.6%) prices are negative but trading within a very narrow USD 1/oz range as risk sentiment is hampered following no agreement being reached between the US and North Korea alongside Chinese Manufacturing PMI printing the third consecutive month of contraction. In terms of recent news flow Libya’s NOC spokesperson stated that there is no technical obstacle to restarting the El Sharara oilfield, but security remains the issue. Elsewhere, UBS highlight that the 8.6mln draw in US crude inventories does not necessarily signal the start of a trend, although the size of the draw indicates that the market is tightening. And just of note Brent futures expire later today. Gold (+0.5%) is firmer and approaching session highs, as the yellow metal is benefitting from the deteriorating risk sentiment after this mornings aforementioned US-North Korea updates. Elsewhere, copper prices were steady in-spite of the poor Chinese manufacturing PMI, with the negative impact of this balanced out by the ongoing supply concerns for the metal; as LME registered warehouse stocks are approaching their lowest level in 10 years.

Looking at the day ahead, the main focus will be on the Q4 GDP reading which is expected to show a +2.2% reading which compares to +3.4% in Q3. In the details of that, core PCE is expected to print at +1.6%. The other data worth watching in the US is the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading and the February Chicago PMI and Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey readings which could give greater insight into the factory sector this month. Away from all that it’s another busy day for Fedspeak with Clarida (1pm GMT), Bostic (1.50pm GMT), Harker (4pm GMT) and Kaplan (6pm GMT) all slated to speak.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: BEA Releasing Initial 4Q GDP (Combining Initial/Second)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 216,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.74m, prior 1.73m
  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.2%, prior 3.4%
  • 8:30am: Personal Consumption, est. 2.95%, prior 3.5%
  • 8:30am: Core PCE QoQ, est. 1.6%, prior 1.6%
  • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 57.5, prior 56.7
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 6, prior 5

Central Banks

  • 8am: Fed Vice Chair Clarida Speaks at NABE Conference in Washington
  • 8:50am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on the Economic and Housing Landscape
  • 11am: Fed’s Harker Discusses Economic Outlook
  • 1pm: Fed’s Kaplan to Speak in Q&A in San Antonio
  • 7pm: Fed’s Mester Speaks on Women in Economics
  • 8:15pm: Powell speaks on Economic Developments and Longer-Term Challenges

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the last day of February. You’ll be surprised to learn that I’ve just won the carpet battle I discussed on Tuesday and we’re back to moving into our new place on time. As such after 7 months of renting a place with a 25 year old kitchen and a shower that takes 3 minutes to warm up and trickles out, we are going to hand in our two month notice today. With 3 babies/toddlers, a dog and a husband it will take us this long to fumigate the place. In fact I’m not sure why we even debated the quality of the carpets in the new house as they won’t last very long anyway!! So an exciting countdown nearly two years after first seeing our new place begins. The last day of the month is also the day we say goodbye to 20 degree temperatures as rain is expected with a cooler front. I’m making a market of 45-50 days until we next have a 20-handle temperature in London. Let’s trade!

The temperature rose in bond markets yesterday with the main talking point being to work out why bonds suddenly sold off from lunchtime in Europe and around the US open. Indeed 10y Treasuries finished +4.7bps higher last night (-1.4bps in Asia though) – weakening by the most in four weeks – after similar maturity Bunds had risen +3.0bps – the fifth weakest day since October 19th. In fact Bunds touched their highest level in 3 weeks and are up +5.6bps from last Friday’s intraday yield lows – or +61% if you wanted a more dramatic stat. There were also more multi-week highs for yields in France (+2.6bps) and the Netherlands (+3.0bps), while BTPs (+8.1bps) sold off by the most since February 1st. To be honest we’ve struggled to pinpoint the exact reason for the sell-off.

Gilts (+6.8bps) also underperformed and there was some suggestion that this led the wider move as Brexit news-flow gets incrementally more market positive. However there were other suggestions it was more technically driven by Treasuries hitting the bottom of a recent range, as well as a heavy day for US IG issuance. Further exacerbating the move was a the +2.59% rally in WTI crude prices after official data showed a 8.65 million barrel decline in US inventories. Additionally, US oil imports fell to a two-decade low and refinery utilisation rose.

As for markets overnight, sentiment is on the weaker side after China’s soft PMIs with the Shanghai Comp (-0.43%), Nikkei (-0.38%) and Kospi (-0.47%) all down while the Hang Seng (+0.26%) is up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.12%. China’s February composite PMI came in at 52.4 (vs. 53.2 last month) with the manufacturing PMI continuing to remain in contractionary territory (at 49.2 vs. 49.5 expected; lowest since Feb 2016) – the third month in a row. Services PMI came in at 54.3 (vs. 54.5 expected). The new export orders component of the manufacturing PMI continued to contract with the reading at 45.2 (vs. 46.9 last month), the lowest since February 2009 and marking 9 months below 50 signaling continued weak global demand. The new order component edged up over 50 again (50.6) after spending two months below. By scale large enterprises showed improvement in their manufacturing PMI (at 51.5 vs. 51.3 last month) while medium (46.9 vs. 47.2 last month) and small enterprises (45.3 vs. 47.3 last month) continued their slump despite the PBoC’s continued push to provide easy credit access to SMEs amidst trade talks. In another sign of the global slowdown Japan’s preliminary January industrial output fell -3.7% mom (vs. -2.5% mom expected), marking three months of continued decline.

So equities on the weaker side in Asia which followed a slightly softer day in US and Europe. Equities initially dropped in unison with the higher rates move but subsequently clawed back somewhat, leaving the S&P marginally lower on the session at -0.06%. The DOW and NASDAQ finished -0.28% and +0.07%, respectively. This was after the STOXX 600 had finished -0.28%, as European markets had closed before the rebound took off. There was one bright spot on both sides of the Atlantic however, with bank stocks appreciating the higher rates and rallying +0.57% and +2.04% in the US and Europe. Part of the original softness in equities appeared to be driven by Lighthizer’s comments during his testimony about the US-China trade talks. The US Trade Representative said that “this administration is pressing for significant structural changes that would allow for a more level playing field” and that the issues between the two sides are “too serious to be resolved with promises of additional purchases”. He also added that “much still needs to be done” and that “there’s no agreement on anything until there’s agreement on everything”. This somewhat undermined previous comments from Secretary Mnuchin that a currency agreement had been finalised. We also seem to have a situation where Mr Trump has increasingly been playing good cop of late and siding more and more with Mnuchin, with Lighthizer firmly in the bad cop territory. It’s also worth noting that the ultra-hawk Peter Navarro seems to have been completely shut out of recent discussions. Ultimately it’s Mr Trump who is the most important but Lighthizer continues to talk hawkishly. There’s been increasingly chatter in the media of late about tensions between the two. Their recent public pronouncements perhaps hints at why that might be. Elsewhere, overnight Lighthizer has said on the USMCA that Trump wants him to get some kind of steel agreement if he can with Canada and Mexico, raising fresh concerns on the passage of USMCA. He further added that “If USMCA doesn’t pass, it would be a catastrophe across the country.” Earlier, Canada’s government had warned that they might not ratify the trade deal if the tariffs remain in place, a sentiment shared last week by Mexico’s envoy to the US, Martha Barcena.

Possibly also having an impact on risk yesterday was Cohen’s testimony. He stopped short of directly accusing the President of collusion with Russia, the subject of Special Counsel Mueller’s ongoing investigation, but did say that “I have my suspicions.” He did say that President Trump committed illegal acts, including alleged campaign finance violations and tax fraud, though Justice Department guidelines say that a sitting President cannot be indicted.

India and Pakistan-linked assets have remained relatively calm despite the escalating confrontation between the two nuclear-armed powers. CDS spreads on both countries remain near recent lows and their currencies remain stable. There are signs of de-escalation amidst contrasting claims from both sides, with no new strikes since yesterday morning. Overnight, the US has urged India and Pakistan to refrain from further military action.

On the theme of geopolitics, the second summit between President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un included the usual pleasantries however was short of anything particularly noteworthy to take away from. A more substantial announcement on talks between the two sides is expected at some point today so it’s worth keeping an eye on that, possibly at a scheduled press conference at 8:40am London time. Overnight, Trump has said that talks with Kim so far have been “very productive”and said “it’s all leaning toward a very big success”. In the meantime, Kim has said that “If I wasn’t working to do denuclearization I wouldn’t be here,” while Trump said before the start of today’s bilateral meeting that “speed’s not important” in denuclearization and he wants to do the right deal. Although as we go to print the press conference has seemingly been brought forward to 7am London time. So there’s intrigue as to why.

Here in Europe there was some interest in a Die Zeit story yesterday suggesting that high ranking members of the German Government were looking at “possible consequences” of Weidmann taking over the ECB Presidency job post the end of Draghi’s tenure. The story suggested that this was due to growing doubts that Manfred Weber would become the President of the European Commission, although it’s not the first time we’ve seen Weidmann’s name thrown in the ring for the ECB job. Expect these sorts of stories to only pick up over the next couple months.

Meanwhile, the good news is that there isn’t a huge amount of new Brexit news to highlight which makes for a nice change. The Evening Standard reported that senior ministers believed that the EU would insist on a Brexit delay of up to two years should PM May fail to secure a deal in the next few weeks. Interestingly the vote to extend Article 50 in two weeks – assuming May’s deal fails again – is amendable. DB’s Oli Harvey thinks this is very important as Parliament will be able to set the length of time the U.K. will request for such an extension. He believes this could scare the ERG group and make them more likely to vote for May’s deal for fear of a lengthy delay and ultimately the possibility of no Brexit. Labour’s amendment was defeated last night and they are now backing a second referendum as flagged earlier in the week.

On the data front, European money supply and credit data indicated a further slowdown. Credit growth slowed to +3.4% in January, while the M3 money supply grew +3.8% year-on-year, below expectations for +4.0%. Our economists’ preferred metric of the credit impulse dipped to -0.8pp of GDP, its weakest level since the summer of 2013, meaning that bank credit has shifted to become a modest headwind for growth, after several years in which it provided a tailwind. Perhaps most worryingly, there are signs of fragmentation within the euro area. The weakening is most visible in Italy and Spain, where lending to corporates has been zero or negative over the last six months, though lending to households has held up a bit better.

On the US data front, wholesale inventories were confirmed at 1.1% mom for December, beating expectations for a negative revision. Core goods orders were revised 0.3pp lower to -1.0% mom for December, which presents some further downside risks for fourth quarter capex estimates ahead of the GDP print later today. Pending home sales rose +4.6% mom, the biggest leap since 2010, which, combined with strong mortgage application data (+5.3% from +3.6%) shows further signs of the housing market bottoming out.

To the day ahead, where this morning in Germany we’ll get the January import price index reading, followed by February house price data in the UK. Later on the focus turns to the preliminary CPI readings for France, Germany and Italy. In the US the main focus will be on the Q4 GDP reading which are economists expect to show a +2.3% reading (in line with the market) which compares to +3.4% in Q3. In the details of that, core PCE is expected to print at +1.6%. The other data worth watching in the US is the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading and the February Chicago PMI and Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey readings which could give greater insight into the factory sector this month. Away from all that it’s another busy day for Fedspeak with Clarida (1pm GMT), Bostic (1.50pm GMT), Harker (4pm GMT) and Kaplan (6pm GMT) all slated to speak.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.87 POINTS OR 0.44% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 124.26 POINTS OR 0.43%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 171.35 POINTS OR 0.79%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.31%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.6827 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 56.75 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.31 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.6827 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6840: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

Trump walks as Rocket Man wants sanctions relief prior to his denuclearization.  This does not bode well for the Chinese trade talks as obviously China interfered.  They need North Korea as a buffer.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“Sometimes You Have To Walk”: Hanoi Summit Ends In Disarray As Trump Balks At Kim Demands For Sanctions Relief

Even arm chair observers probably understood long before the Hanoi summit had even been scheduled that the gulf between the American and North Korean positions on denuclearization was probably too wide to overcome (after nearly a year of talks, the two sides are no closer to a deal). Yet, President Trump had apparently hoped that the pomp and circumstance of another historic summit would soften Kim Jong Un up. But despite all the talk about North Korea being “ready to denuclearize” and both leaders hyping up the possibility that a deal would be struck, alas, no deal was forthcoming, and Trump is now headed back to Washington empty handed.

Trump

Talks between the two world leaders broke down Thursday afternoon as President Trump abruptly walked away from the table and canceled a planned lunch and signing ceremony (it’s still not clear what the two leaders had hoped to sign, though scheduling the ceremony before a deal had been struck did seem risky). With the talks in disarray, Trump moved up a news conference where he and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took questions from the press.

Trump told reporters that he had asked Kim to commit to full denuclearization before the US agreed to sanctions relief, and that “he was unprepared to do that.”

Embedded video

BBC News (World)

@BBCWorld

“There were several options but this time we decided not to do any of the options. Sometimes you have to walk”

US President Donald Trump on the breakdown of talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Vietnam latest: http://bbc.in/2Uc2wUR

 

Trump told reporters that the talks collapsed after the North refused to yield from its demand that the US completely remove all of the U.S.-led international sanctions – including the sanctions approved by the UN security council –  in exchange for the shuttering of the North’s Yongbyon nuclear facility. Trump and Pompeo refused to make a deal without the North committing to giving up its secretive nuclear facilities outside Yongbyon, as well as its missile and warheads.

According to Trump, the talks ended amicably enough, with a commitment to keep the talks alive, and Kim also promised that he would not resume nuclear and missile tests – the basis for the detente between the two countries – and Trump said he would take Kim at his word.

Embedded video

BBC News (World)

@BBCWorld

“There will be no more testing of rockets and nuclear. I trust him and take him at his word”

US President Donald Trump following breakdown of talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Vietnam latest: http://bbc.in/2Uc2wUR

Trump added that he’d “much rather do it right than do it fast.”

“It was about the sanctions,” Trump said. Basically, they wanted the sanctions lifted in their entirety, and we couldn’t do that. They were willing to denuke a large portion of the areas that we wanted, but we couldn’t give up all of the sanctions for that.”

“I’d much rather do it right than do it fast,” Trump added, echoing his remarks from earlier in the day, when he insisted that “speed” was not important. “We’re in position to do something very special.”

In a brief digression, Trump offered his take on Michael Cohen’s marathon testimony before the House Oversight Committee, saying he was surprised Cohen didn’t go “100%” and lie about Trump colluding with the Russians (Cohen said he had no evidence of collusion).

Embedded video

BBC News (World)

@BBCWorld

“He lied a lot… but he only went about 95% instead of 100” – US President Donald Trump responds to ex-lawyer Michael Cohen’s testimony saying he was “impressed” he said there was no Russia collusionhttp://bbc.in/2Uc2wUR

Trump insisted that, when it comes to the subject of denuclearization, “you always have to be willing to walk.”

Embedded video

BBC News (World)

@BBCWorld

US President Donald Trump says he “walked away from talks” after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un demanded lifting sanctions latest: http://bbc.in/2Uc2wUR

In response to a question about Otto Warmbier, the American student who died shortly after being released from a North Korean prison, Trump said he believed Kim didn’t understand what happened to Warmbier until after it had happened.

Embedded video

BBC News (World)

@BBCWorld

“I don’t think the top leadership knew about it. Those prisons are rough”

President Donald Trump says Kim Jong-un “felt very badly” about the death of US student Otto Warmbier who was imprisoned in North Korea latest: http://bbc.in/2Uc2wUR

finished off the talks by suggesting that it might be “a long time” before another summit.

Embedded video

BBC News (World)

@BBCWorld

“The next meeting might not be for a long time”

Donald Trump finishes his press conference in Vietnam after talks with Kim Jong-un broke down

The US refused North Korean demands for sanctions relief latest: http://bbc.in/2Uc2wUR

Despite the breakdown, the leader of South Korea said that, while it was unfortunate no progress had been made on denuclearization, he planned to offer new proposals for inter-Korean engagement following the high-stakes nuclear summit. Moon’s announcement is planned for a Friday ceremony marking the 100th anniversary of a 1919 Korean uprising against Japanese colonial rule. That ceremony will likely include plans for economic cooperation, according to Fox.

According to Bloomberg, Kim took Trump by surprise with his demand for immediate and full sanctions relief, which is why Trump canceled the signing ceremony scheduled for Thursday, which was – again, according to BBG – supposed to feature an agreement on a jointly acknowledged definition of “denuclearization” – something that had been a sticking point during the talks in Singapore.

The abrupt end to the summit rattled global risk assets, while, in South Korea, stocks dumped while the cost of insuring the sovereign debt of the North’s longtime rival edged higher.

After leaving the summit, Trump tweeted a “thank you” to his hosts in Vietnam.

Embedded video

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

THANK YOU to our generous hosts in Hanoi this week: President Trong, Prime Minister Phuc, and the wonderful people of Vietnam!

The upshot, of course, is that Trump’s failure in Hanoi probably doesn’t bode well for a deal with China, as Beijing has clearly not given its blessing for North Korea to proceed. Also, Trump has demonstrated to the markets that he can walk away, even when he so desperately wants a deal, offering some succor to China hawks like Lighthizer.

As one Twitter wit joked, the summit chaos marked the biggest US defeat in Vietnam since…well…

God@TheTweetOfGod

Wow. He even found a way for the US to lose in Vietnam again.

Watch the full press conference below (Trump starts speaking at around the 30-minute mark):

end

 

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

i) CHINA/

This is awful for China as their PMI plunges into contraction yuan.  No wonder the PBOC flooded its economy with a huge 4.64 trillion yuan stimulus

(courtesy zerohedge)

China PMIs Plunge Despite Record Surge In Stimulus

Despite endless jabs of stimulus and the biggest increase in credit on record, China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs plunged in February.

As a reminder, in what may soon be dubbed the Shanghai Accord 2.0, the PBOC announced it had flooded the economy with a gargantuan 4.64 trillion yuan in various new forms of debt which comprise China’s Total Social Financing in January, including notably, the “shadow” credit which Beijing had been aggressively cracking down on: an aggressive credit expansion which many took as a tacit confirmation that China was losing the fight with deleveraging.

But, after a brief bounce in January, everything tumbled again with the first official gauge of China’s manufacturing sector in February (the purchasing managers index) falling further below the 50 mark that signifies contraction, dropping to 49.2, compared with a median estimate of 49.5.

The gauge of new export orders slumped to 45.2 from 46.9 in the previous month indicating weakening external demand amid a global economic slowdown.

The non-manufacturing PMI, which reflects activity in the construction and services sectors, also fell, to 54.3 compared with 54.7 in January.


Production may have slowed in February, due to effects from the Lunar New Year holidays and a temporary campaign by some industrial provinces to reduce pollution.

END
CHINA/USA FORD//
Conditions inside China is not good as Ford is laying off thousands from its Chinese joint venture
(courtesy zerohedge)_

Ford “Quietly” Laying Off Thousands From Its China Joint Venture

At a time when global auto sales are grinding to what feels like inevitable prolonged recession, the world is taking many of its industry cues from China. Which is why it is notable that Ford’s China JV would be laying off “thousands” of workers according to the NYT.

Thousands of the JV’s 20,000 total workers are expected to be laid off as a result of weak auto sales in the world’s second largest economy – a sign of continuing weakness for autos (and the overall economy) heading into the second quarter of 2019. Layoffs recently “quietly begun”, according to additional reporting from Reuters.  Neither Ford nor its China JV, formed in partnership with Changan Automobile Group, had a comment on the reported layoffs Wednesday morning.

Car sales in China continued their relentless descent in January, falling 17.7%, as we recently expected would happen when discussing Europe’s tumbling January auto sales. This follows the country’s first full year slump (2018) in more than two decades and it puts further pressure on the state of the global automotive market.

The drop marked the eighth monthly retail sales decline in a row and was the biggest one-month drop in seven years. Gu Yatao, a Beijing-based auto analyst with Roland Berger, confirmed to Bloomberg that the “downward pressure is still there. The government isn’t adopting stimulating policies to give the market a shot in the arm.”

The contraction in China comes at the same time that auto markets in Europe and North America continue to shrink as a result of car sharing services and slowing economies. As we have been reporting for months, the slowdown in China continues to be a result of the country’s slowing economy, coupled with the lagging trade war with the United States. Even discounts for the Chinese New Year, which traditionally can help spur sales, weren’t enough to keep consumers in showrooms early this year.

It’s a “historic slump” for China: the wholesale decline in January, to 2.02 million units, accelerated from December’s 15.8% slump. For 2018, the drop was 4.1%, marking the first decrease since the early 1990s.

Back in early February we reported that automakers had started off 2019 with absolutely abhorrent sales numbers in the U.S., as well.  Ford at the time – which no longer reports official monthly sales numbers, just like GM – was the one exception, rising 7% versus estimates of -1.5%, according to Bloomberg who cited “people familiar”. GM, on the other hand, fell 7% versus estimates of -3.7%.

Japanese car giants Nissan and Toyota also both posted losses that were larger than expected and companies like Fiat Chrysler and Honda saw their meek gains falling below expectations. As was expected – and stop us if you’ve heard this one before – most companies wound up blaming the cold weather. Honda got creative and also blamed the government shutdown.

The results also indicated that the annualized industry sales rate has slowed more than estimated.

end

Huawei in court today as they are accused by T Mobile for stealing trade secrets.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Huawei Makes First Court Appearance In Trade Secrets Case

Huawei’s day in court has finally arrived.

As analysts struggle to parse what the failed US-North Korea summit means for China trade talks (could it possibly strengthen Beijing’s hand by pressuring Trump to pull punches in the hopes of winning support for a deal with North Korea?), Huawei is preparing to appear in a Seattle Courtroom on Thursday, where court proceedings on charges that it stole trade secrets from T-Mobile are set to begin.

Huawei

Here’s more from Bloomberg:

China’s biggest smartphone maker and its U.S. affiliate are set to appear in federal court in Seattle at 9 a.m. to face charges that they engaged in a scheme to steal trade secrets from T-Mobile US Inc. They are expected through lawyers to plead not guilty to trade-secret theft, wire fraud and obstruction of justice.

One day later, a Canadian court must decide whether the company’s CFO, Meng Wanzhou, should be extradited to the US, where she is wanted on charges of fraud and sanctions violations. If it rules to begin the extradition process, that will set in motion a legal proceeding that could take months or even years.

The arraignment comes just a day before Canada’s deadline to decide whether to officially order the start of extradition hearings against Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou, who is wanted in the U.S. on fraud charges. In a separate indictment filed in Brooklyn, U.S. prosecutors allege she lied to banks to trick them into processing transactions for Huawei that potentially violated Iran trade sanctions.

According to BBG, history suggests that Canada will approve extradition.

If history is any guide, Canada will probably start extradition proceedings, which will set in motion a process that promises to be long and politically explosive. China has demanded that Canada release Meng and, since her December arrest in Vancouver, has detained two Canadians on national security grounds and sentenced a third with a death sentence for drug trafficking in China.

Meng, meanwhile, won’t appear in court again until March 6.

The case against Huawei in Seattle revolves around whether Huawei stole technology from T-Mobile headquarters in Bellevue, specifically regarding its robotic phone-testing system, a robot hand nicknamed “Tappy.”

The US says it has evidence, including e-mails, showing that Huawei encouraged its engineers to steal technology from US firms.

In the trade-secrets case, prosecutors said in a January indictment that from 2012 to 2014 Huawei stole information from T-Mobile’s Bellevue, Washington, specifically technology related to T-Mobile’s phone-testing robot, Tappy.

The U.S. says it uncovered Huawei email messages showing it offered bonuses to employees for information stolen from companies worldwide. Huawei faces fines of more than $5 million, or three times the value of T-Mobile’s secrets, according to the government.

The company has denied any wrongdoing and said it expects to be found innocent in court.

Prosecutors and lawyers for the company may discuss Thursday what pretrial information sharing they’ve done or is required, schedule the next hearing, and possibly set a trial date.

Robert H. Westinghouse, James F. Hibey and Brian M. Heberlig have indicated in court filings they will represent Huawei.

The case is set to begin at 9 am Pacific Time. Of course, if Beijing gets the sense that US prosecutors are seeking to throw the book at Huawei (particularly as the US has largely failed in its efforts to convince western allies to abandon Huawei technology), that could potentially disrupt the trade talks.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

 

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel

Amazing, Israeli Attorney General indicts Netanyahu on charges of bribery even though no money exchanged..only favourable press and that is not a breach of Trust.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Israeli Attorney General Indicts Netanyahu On Charges Of Bribery, Fraud & Breach Of Trust

Three months after Israeli police recommended that the country’s attorney general pursue charges against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his alleged involvement in “Bezeq Walla Affair”, it appears an indictment is finally being handed down on Thursday, much to the longtime leader’s chagrin.

Since Netanyahu and his wife have become embroiled in multiple scandals over the past few years, seemingly all of which have yielded recommendations of prosecution, let us pause a moment for a quick refresher on the most serious allegations. The crux of the case is that Netanyahu and his wife accepted bribes from Shaul Elovitch, the owner of Israel’s largest telecoms firm, Bezeq. Elovitch also owns the “Walla” news website. The prime minister crossed a line when he allegedly fired Communications Ministry Director-General Avi Berger and hired ex-Netanyahu campaign manager Shlomo Filber in a bid to help guarantee special treatment for Elovitch and his companies. In exchange, Netanyahu and his wife purportedly struck a deal with Elovitch for favorable coverage on his news website.

Netanyahu

In addition to the bribery and breach of trust charges stemming from Bezeq-Walla, Israel’s Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit said Thursday that he intends to indict Netanyahu for fraud and breach of trust in two other cases. All charges are pending a hearing where Netanyahu will be given a chance to respond, according to Haaretz.

The Israeli Shekel dropped on the news.

The indictments, which followed a three-year long investigation, mark the first time in Israel’s history that a sitting prime minister has been indicted, and come just six weeks before a general election (though Netanyahu is far from the first Israeli politician to face serious criminal charges).

A brief explainer of the charges can be found below:

Netanyahu

Courtesy of Haaretz

In a last-ditch effort to block the announcement, Netanyahu’s Likud party petitioned the High Court on Thursday and put them off until after the April 9 election, but Justice Minister Mendelblit rebuffed this request, citing the “principle of equality before the law.”

Likud party leaders slammed the indictment as a “political hit job” and have claimed that the case is a “house of cards” that will soon collapse. Which brings us to our next point: Though Netanyahu has been hurt by the scandal, he still remains immensely popular in Israel. While the charges certainly aren’t good, they are a political obstacle that he can still surmount.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Yesterday, tanks are massing on the Pakistan border as India is furious with that attack.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Enraged India Amassing Tanks, 14,000 Bunkers Along Pakistan Border

The potential for major war to break out along the India-Pakistan border continues to build after Pakistan said it shot down Indian fighter jets over the disputed border region of Kashmir. India confirmed only one downed aircraft, and its foreign ministry also said a Pakistani jet was hit in retaliation, going down on the Pakistani side of the border, but what is known for sure is that an Indian pilot is currently in Pakistani military custody after his plane was struck.

Amidst international calls for calm led by both the US and China, the fate of the captured Indian Air Force pilot could be key to whether tensions escalate to full-blown war, or return to an uneasy status quo.

Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor

@OfficialDGISPR

There is only one pilot under Pakistan Army’s custody. Wing Comd Abhi Nandan is being treated as per norms of military ethics.

But it doesn’t look good: throughout the early evening on Wednesday there are increasing reports of tanks and heavy artillery being amassed along the border on both sides, specifically near the Pakistani border town of Sialkot, where video appears to confirm major Pakistani Army deployments.

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: Buses full of army personnel heading towards the LoC area with border, this video is recent and is not old.

Embedded video

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: Another Video from snapmaps of earlier today of Tanks moving in towards border line in near the border of . pic.twitter.com/dR8N5TtbAp

Embedded video

Though Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan in a televised address to the nation called for immediate peace talks between the bitter enemies, saying that “better sense should prevail,” Indian leaders and the public were enraged when Pakistan released a video of the detained Indian pilot, filmed identifying himself as Commander Abhinandan Varthaman.

When an interrogator asked for more information beyond basic identifying questions, the pilot replied, “I am sorry, sir, that’s all I’m supposed to tell you.” Pakistan’s information ministry had also shared footage showing the pilot blindfolded and with blood on his face. This particular footage appears to have been taken just after he was apprehended by the army, and just after being beaten by local Kashmiris when his parachute deployed and he landed on the Pakistani-administered side.

India immediately condemned the video parading the pilot on a public broadcast as a “vulgar display of an injured personnel”which “violates all norms of international humanitarian law.”

Still frames from footage released by Pakistan in the aftermath of the shoot down. 

India has demanded the immediate release of the pilot amidst the continuing blame game and escalating war of words that seems quickly giving way to real war, following reports of sporadic troop clashes on the border.

A number of western legal pundits were quick to point out that Pakistan indeed likely violated the Geneva Conventions by tweeting video of captured Indian pilot, which forbids publicizing images of prisoners for “insults and public curiosity.” The information ministry quickly deleted the tweet, which included a moment in which the prisoner requested water.

Video released by Pakistan’s military and information ministry that appears to have violated the Geneva Conventions.

Embedded video

Sana Jamal@Sana_Jamal

Captured Indian pilot wing commander Abhi Nandan (service no. 27981). has captured 2 Indian pilots after shooting down 2 jets, 1 is in hospital, other in custody.

Currently news of the pilot’s fate is dominating news and discourse in India, with the national election scheduled at the end of May taking a momentary backseat, as war is now on the table. The potential for national fervor favoring drastic response could drive political leadership to escalate during this sensitive time, ahead of a key election.

Pakistan’s information further tweeted a “congratulations” message praising the downing of the two Indian jets early on Wednesday.

Embedded video

Information Ministry

@MoIB_Official

Wreckages of Indian fighter planes burning. Well done Pakistan Air Force. The entire nation is proud of you.

Meanwhile at a time Pakistani officials and media appear to be positively celebrating, and while the prime minister makes what India will surely take as disingenuous calls for deescalation, it appears preparations for war are underway.

The Daily Mail reports: “India is preparing for war with the construction of 14,000 bunkers to protect families on the Pakistan border as Islamabad invokes the spectre of nuclear conflict, telling India ‘better sense’ is needed.

The “better sense” remark came during Khan’s televised statement. He said: “If escalation begins from here, where will it go?”

And referencing the worrisome fact that each side possesses some 150 nuclear warheads, Khan added: “Can we afford any miscalculation with the kind of weapons that we have and you have?” After which he concluded, “I once again invite India to come to the negotiating table,” so that “Better sense should prevail.”

end

Pakistan to release the captured Indian pilot as a “goodwill gesture”. However Pakistan needs another bailout from the IMF

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pakistan To Release Captured Indian Pilot As “Goodwill Gesture”

Before international intermediaries even had a chance to step in to try to quell the escalating conflict, the Indian military started digging bunkers and deploying tanks along the border with Pakistan as the Hindu nationalist government of Narendra Modi – who is struggling to revive sagging poll numbers in the final weeks before a crucial election – told Islamabad that it would not negotiate for the release of captured pilot Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, who was taken into custody by Pakistani jawans after his plane was shot down Wednesday following an aerial skirmish that led to downed planes on both sides.

Fearing not only a military escalation, but also the pressing financial economic concerns as his country seeks another bailout from the IMF, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said during a joint session of Parliament on Thursday that the captured pilot would be released as a “gesture of goodwill” on Friday.

Imran

Before Khan’s announcement, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi told Pakistani television station Geo TV on Thursday that “we are willing to return the captured Indian pilot if it leads to de-escalation,” per Reuters.

Pilot

The decisions comes as several western powers, including the UK, as well as China, had urged caution in the intensifying conflict. Moscow has also offered to mediate between the two sides.

However, Khan said that he was unable to reach Modi when he tried to call his neighboring leader to try and work out a resolution (the Pakistani leader has called for talks, but the Indians have been somewhat less committal). Khan has also said it would be vital that the conflict not “get out of hand” (because nobody wants nuclear war) and added that he didn’t believe the Indian people agree with their government’s “warmongering.”

India accused Pakistan of violating the Geneva Convention a day earlier after the captured pilot was “paraded” on Pakistani television.

India and Pakistan have continued exchanging conventional arms fire across the contested border in Kashmir on Thursday.  Meanwhile, Trump said during a press conference in Hanoi after the collapse of talks with North Korea that “we have been in the middle trying to help them both out.”

7  OIL ISSUES

Oil retreats below 57 dollars after the uSA desires to sell oil from its SPR

(courtesy zerohedge)

WTI Tumbles Back Below $57 After US Offers To Sell Oil From SPR

Having failed to push the Saudis to stem prices (in fact being largely ignored), the Trump administration, according to Bloomberg headlines, has decided to counter high oil prices by offering to sell 5mm barrels from the SPR…

WTI dropped on the headlines…

We will see how long this dip holds as Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak and his Saudi Arabian counterpart Khalid Al-Falih discussed bilateral and multilateral cooperation on the phone, Russian ministry says in a statement on its website.

 

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

Venezuela

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1414 UP .0035 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.70  DOWN .104 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3300    DOWN   0.0017  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3167 UP .0022 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 35 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1414 Last night Shanghai composite closed DOWN 12.87 POINTS OR 0.44%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 124.26   POINTS OR 0.43

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .31%/EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 171.35 POINTS OR 0.79% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 171.35 POINTS OR 0.79%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.87 POINTS OR 0.44% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .31%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 171.35 POINTS OR 0.79%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1326.15

silver:$15.81

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.66% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.05 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 95.84 DOWN 31 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.47% UP 2   in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.02%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.17% UP 1   IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.75 DOWN 4    POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 158 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES  TO +.18%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.57% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1374 DOWN   .0005 or 5 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.40 UP .544 OR YEN DOWN 54 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3258 DOWN.0058( POUND DOWN 58  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 16 basis points to 1.3162

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.6941    0N SHORE  (DOWN)

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.6987(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.3397

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.02%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.71 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.08 UP2  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.18 UP 2 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN  32.47 OR 0.46%

German Dax : UP 28.31 POINTS OR .25%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 15.18 POINTS OR  0.29%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 66.00 POINTS OR  0.72%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 160.67POINTS OR 0.78%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.26 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 66.39 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.87  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.10 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 10 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO +.18 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  57.21

 

 

BRENT :  66.31

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.73.. bond market..GETTING DANGEROUS AS YIELDS RISE WITH STOCK MARKET FALLING!!

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.09..

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1374 ( DOWN 6   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.46 UP .596 (YEN DOWN 60   BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.19 UP 4 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3262  DOWN 56 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3397

the Russian rouble 65.93   DOWN .16 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 16 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3163 DOWN 17 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.6941  (ONSHORE)/CLOSED FOR THE WEEK

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7015  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.18%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 69.91 POINTS OR 0.27%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 21.98 POINTS OR 0.29%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.99 CLOSED UP .29 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.626%//LIBOR HEADING DOWN!!   

 

 

FROM 2.628

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Best Year For Stocks Since 1987 Continues As Feb Economic Data Crashes Most In 2 Years

The S&P 500 continues its strongest start to a year since 1987…

Despite the worst monthly drop in US Macro data in two years…

This is also China’s best start to a year since 2000…

AsChina macro data collapses...

And European stocks soared despite crashing economic data...

The reason is simple… who cares about fundamentals when global money supply (and bank balance sheets) have suddenly reversed course and exploded higher...

Notably, China massively outperformed US and European markets in February…

Summing February up thus…

*  *  *

US equities ended the month weaker… with The S&P down for 3 straight days for the first time since Mid-December… this is also the 4th weak close in a row..

 

US Small Caps outperformed in February…

 

S&P was unable to maintain 2,800 once again…

 

For a little context, February has seen a non-stop short-squeeze…

2019 has seen the biggest short-squeeze since the March 2009 lows…

 

Equity (VIX) and Credit (IGCDX and HYCDX) protection costs collapsed in February along with all sense of risk…

 

The surge in the last two days (among the biggest yield spikes in 2019) pushed yields to the highs of the month (up between 7 and 10bps across the curve)…

This is the 10Y yield’s biggest monthly yield spike since Sept 2018. (HARVEY: DEADLY)

And 10Y Yields broke out of their recent descending triangle pattern…

 

The dollar index rose in February (first monthly gain since Oct 2018)…

 

Yuan fell back to almost unchanged on the month after weak macro data overnight…

 

Cryptos ended February in the green thanks to early and mid-month spikes…this is the first monthly rise for Bitcoin since July 2018

 

Copper & Crude surged in Feb, PMs limped lower…

 

Gold continues to hold YTD gains through February – for the 6th year in a row – but overnight strength gave way quickly to weakness which pushed the precious metal red for Feb and ended the 4-month win streak…

 

WTI appears to find $57.50 as notable resistance for now…

 

 

 

 

Finally, as February comes to an end, we wonder, when does reality break back into the market’s perception?

And pop the bear-market-bounce bubble…

#Time’sUp?

END

MARKET TRADING

Stocks Shrug As Best GDP In 14 Years Spikes Dollar, Bond Yields

US equity market roundtripped to practically unchanged but the biggest annual economic growth since 2015 prompted a spike the dollar and US Treasury yields…

 

Stocks shrugged…

 

The Dollar spiked…

 

And 10Y Yields have well and truly broken out of their recent triangle range…

 

As the market’s expectations for 2019 rate-changes shifted hawkishly… (but remains uber-dovish at -11bps)

ii)Market data/

The biggest bunch of horse manure..the USA surprisingly grew by 2.6% in the 4th quarter instead of 2.2%. The numbers were fudged.

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Economy Grew The Most Since 2005 After Unexpectedly Strong Q4 GDP Print

Following a one month delay due to the government shutdown in January, moments ago the BEA reported GDP for the fourth quarter combining both its first and second estimates, and while consensus was expecting a sharp slowdown in the last quarter of the year, from 3.4% in Q3 to 2.2%, the US economy surprised to the upside in Q4, when it grew a stronger than expected 2.6% (2.590% to be precise). As the BEA explained, “this initial report for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 replaces the release of the ‘advance’ estimate originally scheduled for January 30th and the ‘second’ estimate originally scheduled for February 28th.”

On a year over year basis, 2018 GDP rose 3.1%, the highest print since 2005, and another chance for Trump to claim an economic win, although as Joseph Lavorgna notes, “at present, we’re still looking for sub-2% growth in the current quarter” and adds that these data also have no bearing on #Fed policy which is comfortably on perma-hold.

Yet despite the headline beat, personal consumption disappointed, and after rising at a 3.5% rate in Q3, in Q4 it rose just 2.8%, missing expectations of 3.0%.

Elsewhere, nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property jumped 6.2% in 4Q after rising 2.5% prior quarter. Don’t expect this surge to continue, however, in light of the recent weak durable and core capex numbers.

What were the components of Q4 GDP? Here is the breakdown to the bottom line:

  • Personal consumption contributed 1.92% to the bottom line 2.59% number, down from 2.37% in Q3
  • Fixed Investment rebounded from Q3’s 0.21% to 0.69% in Q4.
  • Growth in private inventories, which drove much of the Q3 GDP jump, hit a pothole, rising just 0.13% in Q4 after the prior quarter’s 2.33% jump.
  • Net Trade (exports less imports) was the biggest contributor to the rebound in Q4, and after this subtracted 2.0% in Q3, the trade impact in Q4 was only a -0.22% subtraction from GDP.
  • Finally, Government consumption added a modest 0.07% to the bottom line GDP, following a 0.44% contribution in Q3.

As Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta notes, “research & development spending is exploding, advancing 13.5% annualized in Q4, climbing 9.9% over the last year. Private R&D spending now represents 2.3% of US GDP, an all-time record. R&D spending is usually a good sign for future productivity growth. If secular stagnation is a thing, U.S. firms are fighting like hell to avoid it.”

Visually:

Some more details from the report:

  • Current-dollar personal income increased $225.1 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $190.6 billion in the third quarter. The acceleration in personal income reflected an upturn in farm proprietors’ income and accelerations in personal dividend income and personal interest income. Compensation of employees decelerated.
  • Disposable personal income increased $218.7 billion, or 5.7 percent, in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $160.9 billion, or 4.2 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 4.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.
  • Personal saving was $1.06 trillion in the fourth quarter, compared with $996.0 billion in the third quarter. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 6.4 percent in the third quarter.

Other details from today’s GDP report showed that the Fed’s “pause” may have been a tad premature, with core PCE rising 1.7% in Q4 after rising 1.6% prior quarter, and slightly beating expectations of a 1.6% print. The GDP price index also beat expectations, printing at 1.8% in Q4, above the 1.7% expected, and in line with last quarter. Lastly, final sales to private domestic purchasers q/q rose 3.1% in 4Q after rising 3.0% prior quarter

Following the strong and surprise beat, the 10Y yield jumped to 2.70% from 2.66% prior to the report, also helping the dollar move sharply higher as suddenly the reflation theme appears to be back again.

And while Q4 was clearly a stronger than expected print, the real question is what happens in Q1, when most banks and nowcasts expect GDP to print below 2%, in some cases concerningly so.

 end
We are now into complete phony data reporting.  Soft data Chicago PMI spikes to Dec 2017 which makes no sense.
(courtesy zerohedge)

‘Soft’ Data Surge Continues As Chicago PMI Spikes To Dec 2017 Highs

Echoing the v-shaped recovery in the stock market – despite plummeting earnings and macro data – US ‘soft’ survey data has staged a dramatic recovery with China purchasing managers the latest to suggest exuberance is back.

Against expectations of a modest rebound to 57.5, Chicago PMI surged back to its highest since Dec 2017 at 64.7…

 

This is six standard deviations above expectations…

Under the hoods:

  • Prices paid rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Employment rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Inventories fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Production rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Order backlogs rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

All of which is evident in the following chart as ‘real hard’ economic data contonues to disappoint but ‘soft survey’ data rebounds dramatically…

Is this putting Powell further in the corner?

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Graham Summers explains beautifully how the Fed has lost all credibility.  They are going to stop the roll off on its balance sheet when their assets hit 3.5 trillion or 16% of GDP.  This should occur in the 3rd quarter and that is when you go all in for gold/silver

(courtesy Graham Summers)

The Fed Has Lost All Credibility… the Next Crisis is at Our Doorstep

Whatever little credibility the Powell Fed still had has been permanently shredded.

Throughout the last 15 months, the Powell Fed has maintained that it would be able to normalize Fed policy. This meant interest rates at historic norms (above 3%) and the Fed balance sheet back at pre-Crisis levels (~$1 trillion).

The Fed pushed this narrative hard throughout 2018, to the point of explicitly stating it would not reverse policy unless the financial system experienced a crisis so dramatic that it damaged consumer spending.

Then came the October-December stock market meltdown, and the Powell Fed abandoned ALL of its hawkishness regarding rate hikes in a matter of weeks.

However, it wasn’t until late last month that the Fed began to talk about abandoning its balance sheet reduction too. Starting in late-January, one by one, Fed officials began talking about ending the Fed’s balance sheet reduction early.

Fast forward to yesterday and Jerome Powell stated on record to Congress that the Fed would STOP shrinking its balance sheet when it (the balance sheet) reached 16%-17% of GDP (roughly $3.3-$3.5 trillion).

I realize these numbers are hard to picture, so consider the below chart. For a year, the Fed CLAIMED that it was 100% certain it could shrink its balance sheet to the red line.

Now it is claiming it will stop at the blue line. And all it took for the Fed to give up on its plans was the damage caused to the markets by the dip in the green box.

GPC22819.png

Anyone who continues to believe the Fed has a clue what it’s talking about in terms of forecasting or the impact of its monetary policy on the financial system is insane.

However, the fact remains that the underlying issues in the financial system are still in place. Those issues are:

1)   Too much debt/ leverage.

2)   Too little capital.

And if the Fed is not going to be able to normalize policy to reduce leverage in the system, then the Political elite will need to come up with other sources of capital to do so.

With that in mind, the current political agenda to push for Wealth Taxes, cash grabs and other means of raising capital all makes sense.

Consider the following:

  • The IMF has already called for a wealth tax of 10% on NET WEALTH.
  • More than one Presidential candidate for the 2020 US Presidential Race has already openly called for a wealth tax in the US.
  • Polls suggest that the majority of Americans support a wealth tax.

And if you think this will stop with the super wealthy, you’re mistaken. You could tax 100% of the wealth of the top 1% and it would finance the US deficit for less than six months.

Which means…

Cash grabs, wealth taxes, and more will soon be coming to Main Street America.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Fed plans to both seize and STEAL savings during the next crisis/ recession.

END

SWAMP STORIES

 

Cohen is accused of perjury and making numerous willfully and intentionally false statements during his testimony

(courtesy zerohedge)

Cohen Accused Of Perjury, Making “Numerous Willfully And Intentionally False Statements” During Testimony

Michael Cohen has been accused of committing perjury and making “numerous wilfully and intentionally false statements of material fact” during Wednesday testimony in front of the House Oversight and Reform Committee.

In a criminal referral letter to Attorney General William Barr, Republican Reps. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Mark Meadows (R-NC) said that President Trump’s former personal attorney was “at times in direct contradiction to assertions contained in pleadings authored by the United States Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York (SDNY).” 

In other instances, Cohen’s statements were “immediately contradicted by witnesses with firsthand knowledge of the subject matter.”

Via the letter (in part):

1. Several times during his testimony, Mr. Cohen denied committing various fraudulent acts that he has pleaded guilty to in federal court. Specifically, Mr. Cohen said “I never defrauded any bank.” These denials are intentionally false. Mr. Cohen pleaded guilty to five counts of income tax evasion, one count of making false statements to a banking institution, one count of causing an unlawful corporate contribution, one count of excessive campaign contribution, and one count of making false statements to Congress.

2. Mr. Cohen repeatedly testified that he did not seek employment in the White House following President Trump’s election. This is demonstrably, materially, and intentionally false. This testimony is in direct conflict with court filings made by the United States Attorney’s Office for the SDNY, which state:

During and after the campaign, Cohen privately told friends and colleagues, including in seized text messages, that he expected to be given a prominent role and title in the new administration. When that did not materialize, Cohen found a way to monetize his relationship with and access to the President.

Eric Trump

@EricTrump

Michael was lobbying EVERYONE to be “Chief of Staff.” It was the biggest joke in the campaign and around the office. Did he just perjure himself again?

Arthur Schwartz

@ArthurSchwartz

Cohen: “I didn’t want to go to the White House.” LIAR. He complained to me on numerous occasions about the fact that POTUS didn’t offer him a job at the WH.

3. Mr. Cohen testified he did not direct the commission of the Twitter account @WomenForCohen. Specifically, Mr. Cohen testified “I didn’t actually set that up” and “it was done by a young lady that worled for [the IT firm] RedFinch.” Mr. Cohen’s statement in this respect may also be false. The owner of RedFinch, John Gauger, reportedly told The Wall Street Journal that RedFinch established the @WomenForCohen account at Mr. Cohen’s direction. 

Read the rest below:

2019 02 28 JDJ MM to Barr Re Cohen DOJ Referral by Zerohedge Janitor on Scribd

Interestingly, there is nothing in the referral regarding an alleged violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), as Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) alleged following a heated exchange on Wednesday.

 

end

end

The House’ Just Hit A New Low

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

Perhaps against better judgment, I just can’t keep silent about the Michael Cohen’s in da House show performed on February 27. I was watching it and increasingly fearing for the future of America. We had all been able to read his prepared statement before he opened the party with it, and therefore we all knew there was nothing there. So why did this thing take place, and why were all the cameras and reporters there? Do we live in split realities these days?

Both before and after the gruelling -for the viewer- session, words like ‘explosive’ and bombshell’ were all over, so I thought I’d watch, since I might have missed something, but no, there was nothing, there wasn’t even a there there. Apparently, US House members are by now immune to being revealed as nutcases frantically phishing for evidence of accusations they formerly made but could never prove.

A phishing expedition with a willing whale in the center who sort of volunteered to be harpooned, and still came up with absolutely nothing but blubber. And then like 4 hours of that. There’s never been a more convincing picture of what US politics and media have become. But they’re all entirely impervious to it. They’re discussing nothing for hours on end with millions watching, and they see it as normal.

Now, I’ve been following the decay of the American press ever since Trump entered politics stage right, and I’ve written a hundred thousand words about it, but it really hit home during the Cohen session. Tellingly, the Republican House members were exclusively focusing on Cohen credibility, since he had been caught lying to Congress before, and the Supreme Court just days ago disbarred him.

But this was not about the man’s credibility, and sure, I felt sorry for him too, it was about the fact that he had nothing at all to say, but Republicans had nothing on that. They instead joined the Dems in questioning him about nothing, pretending it was big and explosive and stuff. If anything has ever resembled the Emperor’s new clothes, it was that charade there yesterday.

If you insist, we can walk through a few of the topics.

A nice example that was not in the prepared statement was that Cohen claimed he had never wanted a White House job, but even the CNN pundits were saying he had wanted one for a long time, and was very insulted when he didn’t get it. Poof! went the last shred of his credibility. Well, not for the House members, they have shorter memories even than CNN talking heads.

Second, the issue of a Trump Tower in Moscow, about which Cohen allegedly lied earlier on, in that the plans were shelved later than he had claimed. But the only thing that really interests the House, because even they understand that wanting to build a hotel in the city is not some criminal thing, is Russiagate, invented out of thin air but still popular stateside.

The one thing related to this that collusion ‘experts’ emphasize time and again, and it came up again in the Cohen thing, is that Trump supposedly planned to gift a penthouse apartment in a potential Trump hotel on Red Square to Vladimir Putin. Conveniently, not a single American appears to have wondered whether Putin would be interested in such a gift.

And I can assure you he wouldn’t. Putin can get -just about- any piece of real estate he wants on Red Square, besides he already has the Kremlin, and he can get anything built there which he might desire. Accepting a free dwelling from a US builder makes no sense. Why should he? Still, this is one of the main items Russiagaters keep coming up with. It makes no sense, and that’s fitting, because neither do they.

Third, pornstar pay-offs. Male politicians worldwide and through the ages have had affairs, and in modern times (re: JFK) there’s been an understanding that the media leave these things alone. On the one hand, it’s proof of virility, something voters like in their candidates, and on the other it shows infidelity, something they don’t. A battle no-one can win, hence the understanding.

In France, this all plays out a bit more openly, though never in the open, but in the US you can break the pact if you want. And since the initial story was that campaign funds had been used to pay Stormy Daniels, there was a potential criminal angle. But we now know that that angle was fake, so no there there either. Trump paid so it (true or not) didn’t become a big campaign story, and that he did so just before an election is irrelevant, because the whole topic is irrelevant. Unless you want to exhume JFK.

Fourth and what pisses me off more than anything, is that Cohen both volunteered, and was coaxed into, talking about Roger Stone’s alleged contacts with Julian Assange. Cohen talked about a conversation between Stone and Trump on July 18-19 2016, in which Stone allegedly said he had talked to Assange who told him WikiLeaks was going to release a big batch of Hillary-related mails.

The DNC convention was July 25-28, the WikiLeaks release July 22. Looks like a slam-dunk collusion story, right? Except that Assange had said 5 weeks earlier, on June 12 2016, that such a batch would be released. So even if Stone had talked to him, there was no news there. Moreover, both Assange and WikiLeaks have repeatedly denied the conversation ever took place. And of course Assange can’t defend himself against anything anyone says anymore.

And we can keep going: the assertion that the DNC mails were hacked has been refuted many times, and if they were stolen it was by someone inside the DNC. No story, no collusion, no there there. Only hour after tedious hour of Michael Cohen House testimony about nothing at all.

It felt a lot like a new low point in US political history, but you need to be careful with such classifications these days, since competition’s stiff and still picking up. I liked the following lines from an article in the Guardian this morning to appropriately describe the goings-on:

Trump’s former fixer cautioned that he could not prove the “collusion” with Moscow that the president vehemently denies. Still there was, Cohen said, “something odd” about the affectionate back-and-forth Trump had with Vladimir Putin in public remarks over the years.

Here’s the best thing Cohen could do in the entire time wasted on the topic:

“There are just so many dots that seem to lead in the same direction,” he said.”

How does that not make you want to scream? No collusion, only “something odd”, and “so many dots”. A thorough analysis out of the mouth of an at least questionable character who worked closely with Trump for a decade. That’s all the US House of Representatives had to show for the show it put on. And that’s a really big problem, but there’s no-one in sight to address, let alone rectify, it.

There are a thousand things wrong with Donald Trump, but even though that would not necessarily disqualify him for the presidency, the Democrats and the mainstream press have opted to go all-in on the Russia collusion theme, which even two years and change of Mueller hasn’t been able to prove.

Whether this will be the winning ticket for the Democrats in a next election is very doubtful, and what the press hope to get other than a few more readers and viewers addicted to scandals is anyone’s guess. But more importantly: why do they do it? Why focus on all the made-up stories instead of going out and finding the real ones?

Even if the Cohen show not constitute a new low, it was certainly scraping the gutter of American political reality, and someone better do something, or entirely new and thus far unimaginable lows will be attained. Not a single national political system can survive on entirely trumped-up accusations for long, let alone that of the globe’s most powerful nation. Does anyone ever wonder what the Dems will do if Trump wins again in 2020? Where can they flee to?

I’ll leave you with a few Twitter voices who also see no there there. Note: the first one is dated July 7 2016, some two weeks before Stone -unverifiably- said he talked to Assange (who always denied it, but it wouldn’t matter even if he had) :

Michael Tracey

@mtracey

Cohen said the purported conversation between Trump and Stone took place on July 18 or 19. Here’s WikiLeaks promoting the upcoming release of Hillary-related emails on its *public Twitter account* on July 7! Idea that Stone ever had special foreknowledge is totally unsupported

WikiLeaks

@wikileaks

STATEMENT on Michael Cohen testimony to Congress: WikiLeaks publisher Julian Assange has never had a telephone call with Roger Stone. WikiLeaks publicly teased its pending publications on Hillary Clinton and published > 30k of her emails on 16 March 2016. https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/ 

Matt Taibbi

@mtaibbi

The DNC was July 25-28, 2016. Assange announced the first of many times an upcoming leak on June 12, 2016. Therefore Cohen testifying to hearing about it in a meeting in a July, “days” before the DNC (how many days?), doesn’t speak to “advance” knowledge in any real sense.

RobbDogg@robbdiggidy
Replying to @thomasmbrownjr and 2 others

Wasn’t it June 2016 a few days before the DNC convention and the first dump of Hillary’s emails that Cohen spoke of? This interview took place after the first dump. Cohen speaks of Trump knowing before the first dump.

Aaron Maté

@aaronjmate

Do Russiagate peddlers get how bad this has gone? Cohen:

– “I do not” have collusion evidence
– “Trump did not directly tell me to lie to Congress” (cc @BuzzFeedBen)
– Stone told Trump public info re: WL & false info re: Assange

& we haven’t even heard his Prague denial yet.

end

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

The King Report February 28, 2019 Issue 5954                                                                                        Independent View of the News

Pakistan Downs Two Indian Jets, Pilot Arrested, Army Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/pakistani-jets-violate-indian-air-space-in-kashmir-pti-reports

@TalatHussain12: All of Pakistan’s Air Bases are at war alert levels— to use an easy-to-understand phrase. Full night vigil. Ground facilities including health and emergency facilities are red alert

Powell Comments on Wednesday

The Fed is not considering a higher inflation target

Fed is targeting price, not wage, inflation

Fed plans to end balance sheet runoff this year

Sees Fed balance sheet at 16% to 17% of GDP (~$3.3 to $3.5 trillion)

Leveraged loans a macro-economic, not systemic, risk

IOER rate is fundamental to the management of Fed policy

Cannot allow debt to keep growing faster than GDP (the trend for almost 40 years)

We cannot allow US debt to go unpaid

Hard to say if regulatory changes are boosting economic growth

Bank mergers are the lowest in 15 years

Student debt is an area of concern

Trump’s Trade Czar Urges Patience on China Deal President Craves [14:30 ET]

Lighthizer speaks to House Ways and Means lawmakers in D.C.

    U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer took a more cautious tone on Wednesday, telling lawmakers that much work needs to be done before the administration reaches a trade pact with Beijing, and after that, the tough task of implementing it will get underway…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/trump-s-trade-czar-urges-patience-on-china-deal-president-craves

On Tuesday, the MSM breathlessly heralded ex-DJT lawyer Cohen’s appearance before the House Oversight & Reform Committee.  Numerous articles stated the Cohen would present new evidence of Trump crimes and misdeeds.  The hearing turned out to be an embarrassment for Cohen and Dems.

 

I have lied, but I am not a liar.” — Michael Cohen to House Oversight & Reform Committee

 

Here’s why what Michael Cohen is doing is so damaging everyday Americans

Michael Cohen, over and over, purported to knowingly reveal confidential information of his client… No rational person, after witnessing Cohen, wouldn’t wonder whether their attorney could or would do the same to them… It strikes at the rights of every American. The fact that the Democrats in Congress gave Cohen a forum to do the above, indeed, that they encouraged him to do so, should never be forgotten. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/heres-why-what-michael-cohen-is-doing-is-so-damaging-everyday-americans

 

@ChuckRossDC: Lots of journos and politicians with egg on their faces today. The dossier is *the* collusion roadmap, and Michael Cohen just destroyed its main theory of the conspiracy.

 

Reporter that broke the DJT ‘dossier’ story @Isikoff: Finally, we get the answer: [Cohen] I’ve never been to Prague. I’ve never been to the Czech Republic.” Final word on one of the more sensational allegations in the Steele dossier.

 

@ChadPergram: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee on if she’s watching the Cohen hearing: It’s on, but I’m doing other things. I think he has a credibility problem.

 

CNN Panel: Cohen Lied When He Told Congress He Never Wanted White House Job

https://freebeacon.com/politics/cnn-panel-cohen-lied-when-he-told-congress-he-never-wanted-white-house-job/

 

@RepMarkMeadows: I just entered a referral for criminal investigation of Michael Cohen, who violated the Foreign Agents Registration Act by illegally lobbying on behalf of foreign entities without registering

 

@seanmdav: It’s barely lunch, and Michael Cohen—who’s already going to prison for lying and fraud—has managed to somehow put himself in even worse legal jeopardy than he was in this morning via his contradictory, false, and self-incriminating testimony today.

    Worth noting that career Clinton fixer Lanny Davis, who likely wrote Michael Cohen’s opening statement, is also a foreign agent of Dmytro Firtash, an oligarch whom Putin used to control Ukrainian elections and officials on behalf of Putin’s puppet therehttps://www.reuters.com/article/russia-capitalism-gas-special-report-pix/special-report-putins-allies-channelled-billions-to-ukraine-oligarch-idUSL3N0TF4QD20141126

 

@paulsperry_: Cohen claims “Mr. Trump knew from Roger Stone in advance about WikiLeaks drop of emails,” but Trump could not have known in advance because Stone did not actually know himself in advance, asMueller made clear in his indictment documenting Stone’s texts and emails at time

      Cohen claims “Mr. Stone told Mr. Trump that he had just gotten off the phone with Julian Assange,” but according to Mueller himself, though he repeatedly tried, Stone never actually got in touch with Assange. Stone was falsely boasting to try to ingratiate himself w the candidate

    Cohen claims he overheard Stone tipping off Trump to pending email drop by Assange on July 19, 2016, as if they had illicit insider info, but Assange had already announced publicly he planned to release emails the previous month (June 12, 2016):

   Cohen just testified that attorney Lanny Davis, an old Clinton hand, is working pro bono for him

   Cohen testified… that he consulted with Democrat investigative committee leaders Cummings and Schiff before preparing his testimony, along with Clinton operative/lawyer Lanny Davis

 

@RealSaavedra: [GOP Rep.] Glenn Grothman: “Do you expect, anytime, using this testimony, other testimony, after you get done doing whatever you are going to do this week. Do you ever expect to go back and ask for any sort of reduction in sentence?”  Michael Cohen: “Yes”

 

As proof that Trump was ‘deeply’ involved in hush money schemes, Cohen produced a $35k check from Trump’s personal account to Cohen.  However, this debunks campaign funding crimes/violations.

 

Cohen emphasized that the SDNY is still investigating Trump.  Each time exculpatory or mitigating evidence or articles appear in regard to Mueller’s investigation, the MSM defaults to the SDNY inquiry.

 

Candace Owens Drops Bomb – Michael Cohen Approached Her to Lie About ‘Racist Trump’

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/02/boom-candace-owens-drops-bomb-michael-cohen-approached-her-to-lie-about-racist-trump/

 

Sen @LindseyGrahamSC: New Low for House Democrats: Holding hearings with Michael Cohen while President @realDonaldTrump negotiates with North Korea about giving up their nuclear arsenal. Democrats’ hatred of Trump is undercutting an important foreign policy effort and is way out of line.

Attachments area

-END-

I WILL SEE YOU FRIDAY NIGHT

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