MARCH 1/GOLD WHACKED $16.90 TO $1298.00 AND ANOTHER 5 DOLLARS IN THE ACCESS MARKET//SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TO $15.23: AND ANOTHER 5 CENTS IN THE ACCESS MARKET//THE BANKERS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY SUPPLYING GOLD TO OUR LONGS WHO STAND FOR METAL: REGISTERED GOLD IS DOWN TO 11 TONNES AND NO APPRECIABLE GOLD HAS ENTERED THE GOLD COMEX FOR OVER A YEAR//POWERHOUSE EXPORTER SOUTH KOREA SAW ITS EXPORTS PLUMMET 11.1% MONTH/OVER LAST MONTH//THE EXTRADITION OF MENG (HUAWEI) IS ALLOWED TO PROCEED WHICH WILL ANGER CHINA//POOR USA ECONOMIC NUMBERS REPORTED TODAY/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

 

 

 

GOLD: $1298.00 DOWN $16.90 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.23 DOWN 38 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  xxx

 

silver: $xxx

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

MARCH

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 66 NOTICE(S) FOR 6600 OZ (0.2121 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  192 NOTICES FOR 19200 OZ  (.5972 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

530 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 2,650,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3869 for 19,345,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3828:UP $14

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3848  UP 35

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today  29/66

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,312.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/28/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 03/04/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 29
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
690 C ABN AMRO 3 4
709 C BARCLAYS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 19 14
800 C MAREX SPEC 33 14
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 6 1
905 C ADM 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 66 66
MONTH TO DATE: 192

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2414 CONTRACTS FROM 199,055 DOWN TO 196,641 WITH YESTERDAY’S 12 CENTS LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE ALWAYS WITNESS A CONTRACTION IN TOTAL OI AS WE APPROACH FIRST DAY NOTICE AND IT SEEMS THE CULPRIT IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  1796 FOR APRIL,  0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1796 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1796 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1796 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.98 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 12 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

AND NOW: 23.870 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

29,480 CONTRACTS (FOR 1 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 1796 CONTRACTS) OR 8.98 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1796 CONTRACTS OR 8.98 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  8.98 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 1.20% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          373.835    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2414 WITH THE 12 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1796 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED: 618 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1796 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2414 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 12 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.61 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.995 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 157% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 530 NOTICE(S) FOR 2,650,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/AND NOW MARCH: 23.870 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 7310 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 489,879 WITH THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.90//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  STRONG SIZED 11,182 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 11,192 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 489,879. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE  A CONSIDERABLE SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3882 CONTRACTS: 7310 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 11,192 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN 3882 CONTRACTS OR 388,200 = 12.07 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $4.90.

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 6469 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 11,192 CONTRACTS OR 1,119,200 OZ  OR 34.81 TONNES (1 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 11,192 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 34.81 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 34.81/2550 x 100% TONNES = 1.36% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     910.37  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 7310 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($4.90) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11192 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,192 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 3882 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

11,192 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 7310 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 12.07 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS OF $4.90 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??

 

 

we had:  66 notice(s) filed upon for 6600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY 

 

 

HUGE  CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AS EXPECTED AS THIS GOLD WAS PROBABLY USED IN THE RAID THESE PAST FEW DAYS;

 

A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   784.22 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 784.22 tonnes.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..///

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2414 CONTRACTS from 199,055 DOWN TO 196,686 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 1796 FOR MAY AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1796 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2414 CONTRACTS TO THE 1796 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A LOSS  OF 618  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.09 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY AND NOW 23.870 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 12 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED 1796 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. THE LOSS IN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER WAS CAUSED BY THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS…IT HAD NO EFFECT ON PRICE..TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 53.05 POINTS OR 1.80% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 178.99 POINTS OR 0.63%  /The Nikkei closed UP 217.53 POINTS OR 1/62%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.34%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7053 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 57.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.33 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7053 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7058: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCE

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

The real story behind the North Korean talk breakdown

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

ii) South Korea

My goodness: shipments fell 11.1% year over year in the powerful exporting nation of South Korea. This is hard data and suggests that the world’s economy is grinding to a halt.

( zerohedge)

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

 

i) CHINA/

China’s shadow debt business has finally hit a roadblock

( zerohedge)

ii)They are talking a final China/USA trade deal but do not buy it.

( zerohedge)

iii)China/Canada/Huawei/Meng//

Canada allows the extradition of Meng to move forward.  There must still be a hearing which will be on March 6 and then the Canadians can decide to send her to the uSA. Needless to say that relations between China and Canada will spiral southbound.

( zerohedge

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)UK

 

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)A good look at two nations economic outlook and both are bad:

1. the uSA

2. Germany

( John Rubino)

 

ii)Australia

Wolf Richter notes that home prices in Sydney and Melbourne are spiraling down.

( Wolf Richter)

iii)Canada

The Canadian Looney tumbles on an unexpected drop for two consecutive months in Canadian GDP

As I am stating, the entire world’s economies are grinding to a screeching halt

(courtesy zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)VENEZUELA/

Venezuela closes it’s European offices in Lisbon Portugal and moves it to Moscow. Putin affirms his support for the former bus driver Maduro

( zero hedge)

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Amazing Canadian regulators are trying to discourage investment in gold mutal funds
(Barisheff/GATA)
ii)We brought you this story last night but it is worth repeating:  Parliament in Romania wants its gold stored in London back

we wish them luck

( zerohedge)

iii)Murphy talks with Craig Heme on palladium and silver

( GATA)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

We have been highlighting to you the falling in Treasury bond prices  i.e. higher yields as China adds huge stimulus to the global economy. This will end not too good

( zerohedge)

 

 

ii)Market data

a)This is not good for GDP numbers;  December personal income fell .1% month/month when the street was expecting a huge .3% rise.  That put a dart into their balloon.  The personal spending plunged a massive .5% month/month in January and no doubt ta small percentage was due to the government shutdown from Dec 21 onward.  Interestingly enough no spending data was forthcoming from January..we only have December numbers

 

( zerohedge)

b)Oh OH!! this is not good: US Manufacturing Survey shows manufacturing plunging to 26 month lows
( zerohedge)
c)University of Michigan Confidence slumps in February. It is a soft data and the index is now at 2 yr lows
( zerohedge)

d)It did not take Goldman Sachs, the Atlanta Fed and the New York Fed to revise its estimate of Q1 GDP

1. Goldman Sachs at only .90%
2) New York Fed: .88%
3.Atlanta Fed: .3%
(zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Heineken USA is cutting its workforce by 15%.  Conditions must be terrible for this beer operation in the uSA

( zerohedge)

b)18 big numbers showing that the USA economy is starting to fall apart( Michael Snyder)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Trump comments that Congress must demand the transcript of Michael Cohen’s new book to show his lies

( zerohedge)

 

b)AOC gets her story all mixed up with respect to Michael Cohen’s testimony

( zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 7310 CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 489,879 WITH THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.90) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR THREE YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES., THE REASON FOR THE COLLAPSE IN OPEN INTEREST IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS. WE WITNESSED THE ABOVE PHENOMENA IN SILVER STARTING TODAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 11,192 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 11,192, FOR JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS AND FINALLY DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  11,192 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 3882 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,192 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 7310 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:3882 contracts OR 388200  OZ OR 12.07 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MARCH and here the open interest stands at 240 contracts  for a loss of 95 contracts.We had 126 notices served upon yesterday so we GAINED 31 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 3100 oz will  stand at the comex as these guys REFUSED TO  morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their effort. This is quite early for gold to see queue jumping and a total increase in gold tonnage standing in this non active month of March.

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after  March is the  active delivery month is April and here the OI FELL by 8437 contracts down to 333,211 contracts. The non active month of May picked up its first 13 contracts to have an OI of 13.  After May, the next active delivery month is June and here the OI stands at 87,373 having gained 622 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 66 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 6600 OZ. (0.3919 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2414 CONTRACTS FROM 199,055 DOWN TO 196,641(AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S FAIR OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 12 CENT LOSS IN PRICING. 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 1435, HAVING LOST 3207 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD 3319 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 112 CONTRACTS OR 560,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER FOR OVER 3 YEARS IN THAT THE TOTAL OZ STANDING INCREASES FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE STANDING. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE THE SAME PHENOMENA IN GOLD.

 

 

 

 

AFTER MARCH, WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.  HERE: APRIL FALLS TO 771 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 13 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ADVANCED BY 797 CONTRACTS UP TO 146,911 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 618 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 2414 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1796 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  618 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS LOSS OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 12 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 530 notice(s) filed for 2,650,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  314,923  CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  265,197  contracts

comex gold volumes are getting extremely low as players just do not want to play in this casino.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Initial standings for  MAR/GOLD

MAR 1 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
66 notice(s)
 6600 OZ
(0.2121 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
174 contracts
(17400 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
192 notices
19200 OZ
.5792 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer; nil  oz

we had 1  adjustment… and this is what I wanted to see all month:  adjustments out of the dealer and into the customer account and that shows settlements.
iii) Out of HSBC: 147,228.713 oz
total: 147,258.713 oz or 4.58 tonnes
we need many more like this to show how the 38.4 tonnes was settled in February.

FOR THE MAR 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 66 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 29 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (192) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (240 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (66 x 100 oz per contract) equals 36,600OZ OR 1.138 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of MARCH

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (192 x 100 oz)  + {240)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (66 x 100 oz )which equals 36,600 oz standing OR 1.138 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH.

We gained 31 contracts or an additional 3100 oz queue jumped as the bankers jumped ahead of investors looking for badly needed gold.

THE GOLD COMEX (AND SILVER COMEX) ARE NOW IN STRESS AS THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO FIND PHYSICAL METAL.

SURPRISINGLY NO GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  366,127.915 oz or  11.388 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,162,488 .910 oz 253.88 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON

MARCH 2018 VS MARCH 2019 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

ON FEB 27.2018 WE HAD 995 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING (2 DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE)  VS FEB 26.2019:  539 CONTRACTS.(2 DAYS BEFORE FDN)

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 1/2018: TOTAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 2.1524 TONNES

THE FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE: MARCH 31/2018:  1.6114 TONNES AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 29 MONTHS 101 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH

MAR INITIAL standings/SILVER

MAR 1 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
23,183.760 oz
CNT
Delaware
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
530
CONTRACT(S)
2,650,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
905 contracts
4,525,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3869 contracts

(19,345,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.32% of all official comex silver. (147 million/298 million)

 

i) Into everybody else: oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: nil   oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of Brinks:: 5907.380 oz

ii) out of  Int  Delaware: 38,384.30 oz

iii) Out of Scotia: 700,983.590

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 745,275.275     oz

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  93.484 million

total dealer + customer silver:  298.098 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MARCH 2019. contract month is represented by 530 contract(s) FOR  2,650,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3869 x 5,000 oz = 19,345,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (1435) and the number of notices served upon today (530 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 3869(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR( 1435) -number of notices served upon today (530)x 5000 oz equals 23,870,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained a considerable 112 contracts or an additional 560,000 oz will stand as bankers queue jumped in order to receive badly needed physical metal.

 

 

 

 

 

ON MARCH 1.2018 WE HAD 24.670 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STAND FOR DELIVERY. BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE DELIVERY MONTH, 27.190 MILLION OZ STOOD AS QUEUE JUMPING IN THE SILVER COMEX ARENA HAD BEEN THE NORM FOR QUITE A WHILE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  93,813 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 70,221 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 70,221 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 351 million OZ  50.15% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.71% (MAR 1/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.91% to NAV (MAR /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.71%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.03/TRADING 12.58/DISCOUNT 3.42

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33 TONNES

FEB 26  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

 

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.99 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/ A SURPRISE GAIN (DEPOSIT) OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.50 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

FEB 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: WE HAD ANOTHER PAPER RAID (WITHDRAWAL) OF 2.04 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES/

FEB 13:/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER RAID BY OUR CROOKED BANKERS AS THEY WITHDREW ANOTHER 2.23 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.89 TONNES

FEB 12: WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO WHACK OUR PRECIOUS METAL TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.00/THE CROOKS WITHDREW ANOTHER HUGE 6.59 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.29 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP 35 CENTS/ANOTHER PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 811.82 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 813.29 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i)A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.37 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM THE GLD AND THEN ii) a A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.40 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

J

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAR 1/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 784.22 tonnes

*IN LAST 552 TRADING DAYS: 149.83 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 452 TRADING DAYS: A NET 10.12 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS//A  SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 610,000 OZ//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ/

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT; NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/RESTS AT 309.984

FEB 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ/

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS: SURPRISINGLY A DEPOSIT OF 1.688 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: A DEPOSIT OF 423,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ

FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 306.935 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT TH SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999  MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000  OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ.

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 129,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY  RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

 

MAR 1/2019:

 

Inventory 309.374 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.17/ and libor 6 month duration 2.69

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .52

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.45%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.86

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.41

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

Gold Still on a Long Term Track to Reach $2,000 An Ounce

– Why gold is down for the month, but still on a long-term track to reach $2,000 an ounce

“A $22 trillion national debt and the lack of any will to rein in massive spending is making America’s creditors nervous and…the ‘risk free’ status of U.S. Treasuries will come into question” said GoldCore

– “Central bank buying is quite bullish as they are massive institutional players…and even a small allocation to gold can be quite significant in terms of additional physical demand” – GoldCore

– “Official sector gold buying … means that they are concerned regarding the outlook for the dollar and are reducing and hedging exposures in this regard…”

– Gold ‘more than likely’ to climb to a record high in 24 months

By Myra Saefong of Dow Jones Marketwatch

Gold prices have pulled back from a 10-month high in recent sessions, leaving investors wondering why the many geopolitical and economic issues plaguing the market haven’t been able to fully support the metal’s haven appeal.

Gold notched that multi month peak just over a week ago on the back of uncertainty linked to Brexit, the U.S.-China trade dispute, and global economic growth. But prices on Thursday suffered a loss for the month on the heels of four monthly gains—the longest upward streak since 2016.

“Prices have run up to the top end of the trading range they have held for the past five years,” says Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, pegging the “top end” at $1,350 to $1,400. “Without further easing in financial conditions, ramping inflation or stock market volatility, gold prices are likely to struggle at the top end of this five-year trading range,” he says.

Futures prices settled at two-week low of $1,316.10 an ounce on Thursday and logged a monthly loss of about 0.7%. They had finished at $1,347.90 on Feb. 20, the highest for a most-active contract since April.

Gold still faces supply challenges and any uptick in demand would tighten inventories.

The gold mining sector has seen a spate of merger and acquisition activity, most recently with Barrick Gold Corp’s unsolicited proposal to buy Newmont Mining Corp. in a deal that values Newmont at nearly $18 billion.

“The M&A activity is reflective of the increasing difficulty [in] finding and mining gold reserves,” says Will Rhind, chief executive officer at exchange-traded fund issuer GraniteShares. “The consolidation of the gold-mining sector…highlights existing gold supply difficulties and shortages, which is supportive of gold prices,” he says.

On the demand side, central banks have been on a gold buying spree, lifting 2018 net purchases of the metal to 651.5 metric tons—their highest in more than 50 years, as geopolitical uncertainty and economic worries prompted national banks to diversify their reserves, according to the World Gold Council.

“Central bank choices about composition of their reserves send important signals to financial markets about relative safety of currency alternatives,” says Trey Reik from Sprott, which manages the Sprott Physical Gold Trust.

“Whenever gold allocations are on the rise, central bank authority is augmenting the [money-like qualities] of gold.”

Carlos Artigas, WGC director of investment research, says that on an annual basis, central banks have been net buyers of gold since 2010. A recent WGC survey also revealed that almost one-fifth of central banks signaled their intention to raise gold purchases over the next 12 months.

“Central bank buying is quite bullish as they are massive institutional players…and even a small allocation to gold can be quite significant in terms of additional physical demand,”says Mark O’Byrne, research director at precious metal brokerage GoldCore.

“Official sector gold buying does not imply necessarily that [central banks] are bullish on gold per se….It likely means that they are concerned regarding the outlook for the dollar and are reducing and hedging exposures in this regard.”

Year to date as of Thursday, the dollar, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index was little changed after a 4.4% rise in 2018. Dollar-denominated gold often trades inversely to the U.S. currency.

“Trillion-dollar deficits in the U.S. under [President Donald] Trump and growing fiscal imprudence will be making central banks with large dollar reserves increasingly nervous about the outlook for the dollar,” says O’Byrne.

“A $22 trillion national debt and the lack of any will to rein in massive spending is making America’s creditors nervous and…the ‘risk free’ status of U.S. Treasuries will come into question.”  That may lead to higher demand for haven gold.

“Given the scale of the risks,” O’Byrne believes gold is “more than likely” to climb to a record high of $2,000 within the next 24 months.

Courtesy of Marketwatch

 

Watch our latest video here

 

News and Commentary

Why gold is down for the month, but still on a long-term track to reach $2,000 an ounce according to GoldCore (MarketWatch.com)

Gold hits two-week low as upbeat U.S. data lifts dollar (Reuters.com)

Romania Ruling Party Battles Bank Over Gold Reserves, Return 95% back (BalkanInsight.com)

Growing China downdraft chills Asia factory activity (Reuters.com)

Oil climbs amid OPEC-led supply cuts, but economic weakness drags (Reuters.com)

Stocks Post Year’s First 3-Day Slide; Dollar Gains: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)

Gold’s Four-Month Winning Streak on the Line Today (GoldCore in Barrons) (Barrons.com)

Gold – here’s why it just might be different this time (MoneyWeek.com)

Trump Returns Home to Face the Mueller Music (Bloomberg.com)

Home Prices in Sydney & Melbourne Spiral Down, Bust Spreads (WolfStreet.com)

Murphy and Hemke on Silver and Palladium Manipulation (Youtube.com)

Stockman on Peak Trump, The Undrainable Swamp & the Fantasy of MAGA (Youtube.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

28 Feb: USD 1,325.45, GBP 996.21 & EUR 1,162.82 per ounce
27 Feb: USD 1,326.45, GBP 998.02 & EUR 1,164.09 per ounce
26 Feb: USD 1,327.55, GBP 1005.79 & EUR 1,168.11 per ounce
25 Feb: USD 1,329.15, GBP 1016.80 & EUR 1,170.32 per ounce
22 Feb: USD 1,322.25, GBP 1016.15 & EUR 1,166.49 per ounce
21 Feb: USD 1,335.05, GBP 1021.85 & EUR 1,177.78 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

28 Feb: USD 15.81, GBP 11.89 & EUR 13.85 per ounce
27 Feb: USD 15.86, GBP 11.91 & EUR 13.92 per ounce
26 Feb: USD 15.83, GBP 11.98 & EUR 13.93 per ounce
25 Feb: USD 15.95, GBP 12.19 & EUR 14.04 per ounce
22 Feb: USD 15.87, GBP 12.20 & EUR 14.00 per ounce
21 Feb: USD 15.91, GBP 12.19 & EUR 14.02 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– “Gold Is A Global Thermometer Of Risk” – CEO Q+A: Stephen Flood, GoldCore
– U.S. Mint Suspends Silver Bullion Coin Sales After Sales Double In February
– MMT: Modern Monetary Madness Will Lead To Higher Taxes and Inflation
– Gold Broker Has Good Sense and Prefers Gold To All That Glitters (The Times)
– The Utterly Unbelievable Scale of U.S. Debt Right Now
– The Best Time In History To Buy GOLD
– Jim Willie Interviews Mark O’Byrne – Prepare Now For Global Financial Crisis II
– 7 Major Flaws Of The Global Financial System – Excellent Infographic
– The Case for Gold In 2019 – The Economist
– Invest In Gold As a Hedge In Cashless Society – Ex IMF Rogoff

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
Amazing Canadian regulators are trying to discourage investment in gold mutal funds
(Barisheff/GATA)

BMG Group’s Nick Barisheff: Canadian regulators discourage investment in gold mutual funds

 Section: 

12:30p ET Thursday, February 28, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Nick Barisheff of bullion dealer and metals fund manager BMG Group in Canada writes that the country’s securities regulators have issued rules —

http://www.osc.gov.on.ca/en/SecuritiesLaw_ni_20161208_81-101-81-102_csa-…

— that discourage investors from putting money in mutual funds holding gold. The rules, Barisheff writes, assign the monetary metal a risk rating of medium to high, even though the Bank for International Settlements now classifies gold as a risk-free asset like U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasuries.

Barisheff’s commentary is headlined “Devastating Losses Are Coming” and it’s posted at the BMG Group internet site here:

http://bmg-group.com/devastating-losses-are-coming-what-is-your-advisor-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

We brought you this story last night but it is worth repeating:  Parliament in Romania wants its gold stored in London back

we wish them luck

(courtesy zerohedge)

Parliament leaders want Romanian gold reserves brought home

 Section: 

By Ioana Erdei
Business Review, Bucharest, Romania
Wednesday, February 27, 2019

BUCHAREST, Romania — Chamber of Deputies President Liviu Dragnea and Socia Democratic Party Sen. Serban Nicolae have proposed a bill to force the National Bank to store 95 percent of Romania’s gold reserves in the country.

The bill is meant to change the law that establishes the National’s Bank statute. According to the document, the reason for this demand is that gold stored abroad produces only additional costs with storage. The bill also wants to eliminate the word “international” from the terminology used by the National Bank in “international gold reserves.”

Romania’s gold reserves, 103.7 tons, are stored in three countries, according to the National Bank officials. Three years ago, the institution announced that 60 percent of the gold reserves were stored abroad. The situation has not changed — 61 tons of the gold are stored at the Bank of England, more than 40 tons are kept at the Bank of Romania in Bucharest, and fewer than five tons are stored at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://business-review.eu/news/liviu-dragnea-demands-the-national-bank-t…

* * *

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END

Murphy talks with Craig Heme on palladium and silver

(courtesy GATA)

GATA Chairman Murphy, TF Metals Report’s Hemke interviewed on palladium, silver

 Section: 

8:17p ET Thursday, February 28, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report and GATA Chairman Bill Murphy were interviewed this week by Phil Kennedy of Kennedy Financial, discussing the recent explosion in palladium and whether failure of naked shorting of futures contracts in that metal could cause failure of the futures markets in gold and silver. They also discuss JPMorganChase’s domination of the silver market. The interview is 36 minutes long and can be viewed at You Tube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUcsne5XnyI&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END



iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

 

-END-

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7053/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7058   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 53.05 POINTS OR 1.80% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 178.99 POINTS OR 0.63%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 217.53 POINTS OR 1.62%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.19/Euro RISES TO 1.1384

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.70/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.39 and Brent: 66.33

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN  /OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.19%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.75% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.20%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.55: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.65

3k Gold at $1306.40 silver at:15.50   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 12/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.85

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.79 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9981 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1363 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.19%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.73% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.10%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3582

 

Global Stocks Surge On Rebound In Chinese Data, MSCI Inclusion

Just as the official Chinese manufacturing PMI’s disappointing Thursday print (to a three year low) pressured stocks on the last day of February, and sent both the MSCI World Index and the Dow Jones to three consecutive days of declines, the longest such stretch of 2019 yet, overnight’s Caixin PMI which unexpectedly posted a sharp rebound in February, rising to 49.9 from 48.3 in January, offered some reassurance to investors concerned about the growth outlook that the global economic drop may have troughed while “optimism” for a trade deal returned; Treasuries extended their recent decline and the dollar pushed higher for a third day before easing back. The result is a sea of green in global stocks with the S&P trading back over the critical 2,800 level.

Bullish sentiment stormed back led by China, where shares outperformed with the Shanghai Composite closing 1.8% higher following confirmation that MSCI Inc. will quadruple the weight of Chinese stocks in its global benchmarks from 5% to 20%, while in contrast to the small decline in NBS manufacturing PMI reported just one day earlier, the Caixin manufacturing PMI bounced back in February from the dip in January. It rose by 1.6pp to 49.9, although January-February combined, Caixin manufacturing PMI averaged at 49.1, lower than 49.7 in December last year. Most sub-indexes of the survey rebounded in February vs January. The fact that the index remained just barely in contraction territory was offset by a sharp increase in the forward-looking new orders index component.

According to Goldman, the Caixin manufacturing PMI showed “some early signs of better growth momentum in the manufacturing sector in February. However, the floating holiday and continued weakness shown in other indicators such as NBS manufacturing PMI added uncertainties to the above view, and for the period of January to February on average, growth momentum still likely softened from late last year. We continue to expect more policy easing to support the economy, and Jan-Feb industrial production data to be released in two weeks’ time will shed more light on the underlying growth trend early this year.”

As a result, China’s blue-chip CSI300 index surged 2.2% to land its best week since November 2015 after the MSCI announcement. It could potentially draw up to $80 billion of fresh foreign inflows to the world’s second-biggest economy.

“The news surrounding China and the Chinese economy has been better than news we’ve seen elsewhere,” Andrew Cole, head of multi asset at Pictet Asset Management Ltd., told Bloomberg TV in Hong Kong. “Clearly the central bank and the authorities are providing both fiscal and monetary stimulus.”

Elsewhere in Asia, Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.4%) extended on opening gains as IT and healthcare names led the advances, whilst heavy-exporter Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) outperformed after the yen dropped to a 10-week low against the greenback.

Later in the session, European shares opened notably higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rising to the highest in almost five months, as 18 of 19 industry sectors were in the green and car makers leading the charge, even after PMI data showed that euro-area manufacturing contracted last month, offset by the fastest rise in German retail sales since Oct 2016.

“We are seeing a fairly decent uptick in European markets,” said CMC Markets analyst David Madden, citing the combination of U.S. and China data as well as encouraging comments from the United States on China trade talks.

To be sure, the bad data in Europe continued and Spain’s manufacturing sector contracted for the first time for more than five years in February data from Madrid showed while in eastern Europe Czech manufacturing sentiment fell at its fastest rate in six years.

However, market reaction showed that “bad news can be good news” because it could well encourage the European Central Bank to hand out cheap TLTRO loans to euro zone banks in the coming months. Boosted by strong Chinese data and weak European data, futures on the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq gained, with the EMini back over the critical 2,800 “quad top” resistance level. Emerging-market stocks snapped a three-day losing streak.

Traders will be relieved to see a strong close to the week after a 16% surge from Christmas through the start of this week, MSCI’s gauge of global equities has tread water as investors await progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. American officials are preparing a final deal that Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping could sign in weeks, even as a debate continues in Washington over whether to push Beijing for more concessions. Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, geopolitical concerns remain in the background, amid tensions between India and Pakistan and the failure of a summit between Kim Jong Un and Trump to achieve an agreement between the U.S. and North Korea on denuclearization.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday fueled concerns over U.S.-China trade talks, warning that he could walk away from a trade deal with China if it were not good enough. But in subsequent comments Thursday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow called progress in the negotiations “fantastic” and said the countries were “heading towards a remarkable, historic deal.”

Mixed messages on trade combined with the collapse of the summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on denuclearization, and data from China showing slowing factory activity to pressure U.S. stocks as Reuters notes. “News that President Trump walked out of the meeting with Supreme Leader Kim, because the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement over North Korea’s nuclear disarmament, dashed hopes for an easing in geopolitical tensions,” analysts at ANZ said in a morning note.Overnight, president Trump said he believes a good deal with North Korea will happen and added that North Korea did not want to fully denuclearise. Meanwhile, North Korea Foreign Minister said if US lifts sanctions, North Korea will denuclearise, whilst adding that Pyongyang will not change its stance even if the US seeks further talks. US Secretary of State Pompeo said that North Korea basically asked for all sanctions to be lifted.

In the latest Brexit news, UK’s Labour Party is reportedly moving towards a compromise plan which would allow PM May’s Brexit deal to pass but makes it clear that Parliament “withholds support” until the deal has been put to a public vote; according to multiple party sources.

Following a stronger than expected Q4 GDP print, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said on Thursday that it will take time to see how much the U.S. economy is slowing, supporting views of the Fed’s rate-hike holiday at least through to June.

In rates, long-dated government bond yields in Germany, the euro zone’s benchmark issuer, were set on Friday for their biggest weekly increase in more than year, reflecting easing concern about the global growth outlook and hopes that a no-deal Brexit will be avoided, and ignoring today’s equity euphoria. 10Y TSY yields meanwhile continued to rise, and were trading at 2.73% today after trading 10bps lower earlier in the week.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose a third day, tracking a rise in Treasury yields; the dollar index which tracks the greenback against major rivals, was up 0.2 percent at 96.302, though it remained fractionally lower for the week overall. The yen led losses among G-10 currencies after better-than-expected China data sapped haven demand. The euro edged lower as PMIs out of the euro-zone confirmed a contraction in the manufacturing sector amid a slump in orders, while core CPI for the region slowed to 1.0% y/y, falling short of a 1.1% estimate. Britain’s pound has been the star of the week, jumping more than 1.5 percent after another set of twists in Brexit saga has cut the chances of the UK crashing out the EU at the end of the month with a transition deal. It was down a fraction on the day at $1.3250.

In commodities, iron ore extended its rally, stoking a gain in the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex to the highest since early October. West Texas oil futures nudged toward $58 a barrel as strengthening economic trends in the U.S. signaled tightening supplies, and gold’s third successive drop set it up for the worst week since November. Brent and WTI are essentially flat, in-spite of trading positively overnight and initially during the European session, although they are once again trading within a fairly narrow range of less than USD 2/barrel. Elsewhere, since the imposition of US sanctions on the 28th January on Venezuelan oil, Venezuela’s oil exports have dropped by 40% for the month to around 920k BPD. Separately, Lukoil have agreed to reach the OPEC+ targets in April, and Rosneft’s VP state that they fully comply with the pact. Gold is weaker as the USD moves higher recouping recent losses, with the yellow metal hitting a two-week low and currently trading around USD 1306/oz. Elsewhere, copper weakened following China printing a 3rd month of contraction in their Caixin Manufacturing PMI, although the metal did recover as the figure was above expectations and risk sentiment remained positive. Separately, Goldman Sachs trade ideas include Long Dec’19 copper vs. Dec’19 zinc, Long jun’19 and short June’20 aluminium.

Today’s expected data include personal income and spending, as well as manufacturing PMIs. Foot Locker and Onex are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 2,802.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 375.62
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 159.00
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 524.20
  • Nikkei up 1% to 21,602.69
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,615.72
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 28,812.17
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.8% to 2,994.01
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 36,108.55
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,192.73
  • Kospi down 1.8% to 2,195.44
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 0.187%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1360
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.2 bps to 2.393%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 1.176%
  • Brent futures up 0.3% to $66.51/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,306.59
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 96.34

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.S. officials are preparing a final trade deal that President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could sign in weeks, people familiar with the matter said. The U.S. is eyeing a summit between the two presidents as soon as mid-March, said one of the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the preparations are confidential
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell repeated the central bank’s recent mantra of pledging patience in the face of conflicting economic signals and subdued inflation. signals and subdued inflation. “The Federal Open Market Committee will be patient as we determine what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support our dual-mandate objectives,” Powell said in the text of a speech Thursday evening in New York
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan says “global growth is decelerating” and due to potential spillovers from this headwind and other sources of uncertainty, he has been advocating that “we should pause and be patient” on monetary policy.
  • MSCI Inc. will expand the weighting of China-listed shares in benchmark indexes tracked by global investors, a decision that could see billions of dollars flow into one of the world’s most volatile major stock markets
  • Oil was poised to eke out a third weekly gain after Saudi Arabia defied U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for lower prices, and a drop in American crude inventories signaled supplies are tightening.
  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to meet again with President Donald Trump to continue nuclear negotiations after a two-day summit between the leaders collapsed Thursday amid discord over sanctions and conflicting accounts of Pyongyang’s demands
  • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney says the drop in business investment due to Brexit uncertainty will hamper the U.K. economy
  • Underlying price pressures in the euro area remain weak, according to the latest inflation figures for the region, giving European Central Bank policy makers more to digest ahead of their crucial meeting next week

Asian equities started the first trading day of the month on an optimistic note, despite a relatively downbeat session on Wall Street where the three main indices closed lower by around three-tenths of a percent. The Dow was weighed on by UnitedHealth shares which trimmed around 50 points off the index, meanwhile Nasdaq was pressured as heavyweights Facebook, Apple and Netflix all fell over 0.5%. In terms of February performance, Dow rose 3.7%, S&P gained 3.0% and Nasdaq advanced 3.4% in the month. ASX 200 (+0.4%) extended on opening gains as IT and healthcare names led the advances, whilst heavy-exporter Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) outperformed on the back of a weaker domestic currency. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp (+1.8%) was choppy as the third straight month of contraction in China’s manufacturing sector capped upside in the index, despite MSCI quadrupling China A-share weightings in global benchmarks to 20%. Goldman Sachs estimates that the MSCI move would lead to a potential USD 70bln net buying in A-shares, skewed towards the healthcare and consumer sectors. Finally, Hang Seng (+0.6%) edged higher during the session as the index felt support from its heavy-weight financial and energy sectors.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Dollar Near Weak End of Band Raises Tightening Risk
  • New Philippines Central Bank Chief Eyed by Dominguez This Month
  • Carlyle Buys Stake in Indian Life Insurer From BNP Paribas

Major European equities are in the green [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%], as markets follow from the positive risk sentiment seen overnight in Asia. Dax (+1.0%) is the outperforming index with all components in the green on the positive risk sentiment following concerns over China’s economy being somewhat alleviated after Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected; as such the Auto sector is outperforming its peers. Other notable movers include Rheinmetall (+7.3%) leading the Stoxx 600 after the Co’s FY18 revenue was in-line with expectations. WPP (+8.2%) are also firmly in the green in-spite of the Co’s outlook for 2019 being rather downbeat, particularly regarding the first half, as they reported results that marginally beat on expectations. Elsewhere, Man Group (-4.2%) are towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after stating that their funds under management fell in 2018.

Top European News

  • Italy’s Di Maio Trusts Salvini to Stand by Him for Long Term
  • Deficit Conquered, Germany Is Finally Boosting Public Spending
  • WPP Dodges Another Results Shock After Year of Client Losses
  • Jupiter Rises Most in Five Years as Payout Beats Expectations

In FX, although the Dollar has pared some of its post-GDP and Chicago PMI gains vs certain major counterparts, the index has rebounded further from sub-96.000 lows towards 96.400, largely at the expense of safe-haven currencies, and especially the Jpy.

  • JPY – No respite for the Yen after yesterday’s slide through 111.00 and accelerated losses below the 200 DMA as US Treasury yields continue to rally and the 10 year benchmark clears 2.70% in wake of the aforementioned stronger than forecast data and survey news. Usd/Jpy is now just a whisker away from the next big figure where more offers are touted, and with key Fib resistance residing not far above at 112.08.
  • CHF/GBP – Also victims of the broad Greenback revival, but the former unwinding more of its safe-haven premium as well, with the Franc back under parity vs the Buck and below 1.1350 against the Euro. Meanwhile, Cable’s pull-back from recent Brexit no deal highs has extended to 100+ pips and not far from Fib support around 1.3215, with little reaction or independent direction gleaned from a bang in line with consensus UK manufacturing PMI.
  • EUR – The single currency has pulled back further from best levels too (1.1400+), but holding up relatively well amidst mixed Eurozone data and perhaps with the aid of hefty option expiry interest at the 1.1350 level for today’s NY cut (2 bn) plus M&A news that has lifted Eur/Jpy very close to a key Fib. On that note, the 30 DMA in Eur/Usd at 1.1363 could also be influential on a closing basis along with 0.8593 in Eur/Gbp.
  • CAD/NZD/AUD – All on a firmer footing vs their US peer, and particularly the Loonie that has rebounded strongly from sub-1.3200 lows on Thursday ahead of Canadian GDP data and gleaning some traction from steadier oil prices. Usd/Cad is currently near the bottom of a 1.3132-77 range, and a big option expiry between 1.3140-50 may also have a bearing on trade given 1.4 bn rolling off later today. Meanwhile, the Kiwi and Aussie have both managed to regain composure and round number status after falling below 0.6800 and 0.7100, with some comfort drawn from the overnight Caixin Chinese manufacturing PMI that was sub-50 again, but not as weak as the official version.

In commodities, Brent (U/C) and WTI (+0.1%) prices are essentially flat, in-spite of trading positively overnight and initially during the European session, although they are once again trading within a fairly narrow range of less than USD 2/barrel. Elsewhere, since the imposition of US sanctions on the 28th January on Venezuelan oil, Venezuela’s oil exports have dropped by 40% for the month to around 920k BPD. Separately, Lukoil have agreed to reach the OPEC+ targets in April, and Rosneft’s VP state that they fully comply with the pact. Gold (-0.3%) is weaker as the USD moves higher recouping recent losses, with the yellow metal hitting a two-week low and currently trading around USD 1306/oz; however, analysts do highlight that the metal has strong support at the USD 1300/oz level. Elsewhere, copper weakened following China printing a 3rd month of contraction in their Caixin Manufacturing PMI, although the metal did recover as the figure was above expectations and risk sentiment remained positive. Separately, Goldman Sachs trade ideas include Long Dec’19 copper vs. Dec’19 zinc, Long jun’19 and short June’20 aluminium.

Looking at the day ahead, the big highlight in the US today meanwhile is the December PCE report which is expected to show a +0.2% mom core reading (+1.9% yoy and unchanged versus November). We’ll also get the December personal income and spending reports, January manufacturing PMI and February ISM manufacturing – the latter of which is expected to fall just under 1pt to 55.7. The final revisions to the February University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey round out the data. Away from all that, it’s the turn of the Fed’s Bostic to speak this evening.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%; Personal Spending, est. -0.3%, prior 0.4%
  • 8:30am: Real Personal Spending, est. -0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.0%, prior 0.1%; PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.7%, prior 1.8%
  • 8:30am: PCE Core MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%; PCE Core YoY, est. 1.9%, prior 1.9%
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53.7, prior 53.7
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 55.8, prior 56.6
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 95.9, prior 95.5; Current Conditions, prior 110; Expectations, prior 86.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

With it being the first day of March, this morning Craig was up in the middle of the night publishing the February performance review as a standalone document which you should see in your inbox an hour or so before this one. You’ll find the usual charts and tables in that document too which will help show that it’s actually been one of the better starts to a year on record.

Overnight we’ve already seen China’s Caixin February manufacturing PMI. It came in at 49.9 (vs. 48.5 expected), marking the third consecutive month below 50 but obviously showing some signs of improving. Sub-index level details were more mixed with new orders returning above 50 (at 50.2) after 2 months below while new export orders slipped back ( at 49.4 vs. 50.4 last month). The accompanying statement from Markit with the release stated that the domestic manufacturing demand improved significantly in February while foreign demand was not deteriorating as quickly as last year. However, we need to be cautious on over interpreting domestic demand in February as the significant improvement could be on the back of higher spending on account of Lunar New Year holidays. Nevertheless some signs of green shots. Elsewhere, Japan’s final February manufacturing PMI came +0.4pts above the preliminary read at 48.9 (vs. 50.3 last month). In other news, MSCI has said that it will expand the weighting of China-listed shares in its benchmark indexes which is helping sentiment there.

Geo-political tensions are also showing signs of de-escalation as the week closes with Pakistan’s PM Imran Khan saying yesterday that he will return the captured Indian pilot back to India today while overnight, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un said that he will meet again with President Donald Trump to continue nuclear negotiations after a two-day summit between the leaders collapsed yesterday and expressed appreciation for Trump’s “active efforts toward results” and called the summit talks “productive.”

The better than expected China’s PMI, China’s MSCI news and de-escalation of geo-political risks has helped sentiment overnight with markets in Asia trading largely up with the Nikkei (+1.13%), Hang Seng (+0.31%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.21%) advancing while the Kospi (-1.76%) is down after the disappointing end to the summit yesterday. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.40% and the Japanese yen is weak (-0.30%) this morning.

As we start a new month, markets will do well to match the heady gains of the last two months however the last day of February proved to be a bit of a damp squib for risk assets. That being said, it’s bond markets that continue to remain (relatively speaking) lively with yields finally deciding to move against zero’s gravitational pull in the last 48 hours. Better than expected Q4 GDP and Chicago PMI readings in the US – more on those below – was as good an excuse as any yesterday and it helped Bunds (+3.5bps) climb to 0.183% and the highest since 30 January. Treasuries were also up as much as +7.2bps from the intraday lows at one stage and ultimately finished +3.6bps on the day at 2.719%. Amazingly, despite all the excitement of the last two days, on an intra-day basis the range for Treasuries in February was just 11.6bps and we’d completed that by February 5th. If we look at the period since then, the range is just 9.3bps. So it wasn’t exactly the most exciting month for Treasuries despite the mini tantrum in the last couple of days.

By contrast, there was some divergence across risk assets yesterday. The various geopolitical noise hasn’t helped sentiment this week, including talks between Trump and Kim Jong Un being cut short in Hanoi. This was offset to some degree by the more upbeat trade comments from Kudlow and Mnuchin. The S&P 500 ended -0.28%, and traded in an intraday range of just 40bps, its tightest range since last September. The STOXX 600 finished +0.06%, while there were outsized gains for the IBEX (+0.72%) and FTSE MIB (+0.78%). Banks appeared to play a role in that, with European Banks as a sector up +2.01% reflecting the bond move and Spanish and Italian Banks up +1.86% and +2.12%. Meanwhile, HY credit spreads were -4bps and -3bps tighter in the US and Europe. The euro traded close to flat versus the dollar at 1.1374, capping its narrowest three month stretch ever, with a range of just 2.9% over that period.

Back to that data yesterday, Q4 GDP in the US printed at a better-than-expected +2.6% qoq saar (vs. +2.2% expected). The breakdown was equally supportive with private domestic demand up +3.1% and consumer spending reasonable following concerns post the odd December retail sales report. Trade also subtracted less than expected from the overall headline number. Core PCE prices rose at an annualized pace of 1.7% on the quarter, a touch above expectations, which presents some upside risks to today’s December print. As for the Chicago PMI, the February reading jumped a whopping 8pts to 64.7 and far exceeded expectations for a more moderate 57.5. That is the highest reading since December 2017 and like the GDP report, the details also made for pleasant reading with new orders up over 15pts and production over 8pts higher. As you’ll see in the day ahead at the end, we’ve got the ISM manufacturing reading today which is expected to fall slightly from 56.6 to 55.8 however recent regional surveys perhaps indicate some upside risk to the headline reading now, since the Chicago, Dallas, Empire, and Richmond prints all moved higher this month, leaving the weak Philly print as an outlier.

The other data of note in the US yesterday was the latest weekly initial jobless claims print, which rose 8k and a bit more than expected to 225k. That said, the four-week average has dropped for two consecutive weeks now to 229k. As for the data in Europe, it was a busy day for inflation releases. In a nutshell, Germany (+0.5% mom vs. +0.6% expected) and France (+0.1% mom vs. +0.3% expected) missed, Spain (+0.2% mom vs. +0.1% expected) beat and Italy (-0.2% mom) was in line. Today we’ve got the broader Euro Area reading with the consensus pegged at an unchanged +1.1% yoy for the core reading. Our economists had expected it to also come in at a weak +1.1% yoy however yesterday’s country level data likely puts the risk at that coming in below market.

Turning to Fedspeak, where the most interesting comments were from Vice Chair Clarida, who noted that “market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved lower, on net, since last summer, though they have increased some recently.” This suggests that Clarida wants to see higher inflation pricing before endorsing another rate hike, which is the rationale behind one of our rates strategists’ favorite trades of being long US breakevens. The rest of Clarida’s comments conformed to recent FOMC rhetoric emphasizing patience and data dependence as a response to financial market volatility and slower global growth. Elsewhere, Philadelphia Fed President Harker reiterated his preference for one hike each this year and next. That was likely also his view as of December, so his stasis suggests reduced scope for the dots to fall at the March FOMC meeting.

Finally to the day ahead, which kicks off this morning with January retail sales data in Germany before all eyes turn to the final revisions of the February manufacturing PMIs. For what it’s worth, no change in the Euro Area reading of 49.2 is expected, while the same applies for Germany and France at 47.6 and 51.4, respectively. Italy and Spain are expected to fall slightly to 47.2 and 51.7, respectively. Away from that this morning we also get February employment data in Germany and January money and credit aggregates data in the UK, as well as the advanced February CPI reading for the Euro Area as mentioned above. The big highlight in the US today meanwhile is the December PCE report which is expected to show a +0.2% mom core reading (+1.9% yoy and unchanged versus November). We’ll also get the December personal income and spending reports, January manufacturing PMI and February ISM manufacturing – the latter of which is expected to fall just under 1pt to 55.7. The final revisions to the February University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey round out the data. Away from all that, it’s the turn of the Fed’s Bostic to speak this evening.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 53.05 POINTS OR 1.80% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 178.99 POINTS OR 0.63%  /The Nikkei closed UP 217.53 POINTS OR 1/62%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.34%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7053 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 57.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.33 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7053 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7058: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/

The real story behind the North Korean talk breakdown

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

North Korea Talks Breakdown – Trump Keeps The Empire Happy

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Given the trajectory of President Trump’s foreign policy since last year there was little hope of significant movement at this year’s summit with North Korea.

Since that first, historic meeting last year in Singapore, Trump’s foreign policy team has become the exact opposite of what that meeting symbolized.

Belligerent, threatening, cocky, obnoxious and ignorant only partially cover the depths to which Mike Pompeo, John Bolton and Trump himself have taken U.S. diplomacy.

There are many who still think that Trump is working for peace in the world. But, even if he is, the reality is that he’s not in charge of anything anymore.

So the point is moot.

Since Trump announced the withdrawal from Syria in December 20th, he has been pushed further and further to the sidelines of his own administration.

Take two weeks ago in Europe for example. Two major international summits are held in Warsaw and Munich and Trump is at home tweeting about the evils of Socialism and Venezuela while the Triumverate of Evil – Bolton, Pence and Pompeo — failed to rally support for a world war against Iran.

Vice President Mike Pence is running the operation on Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. Trump isn’t allowed anywhere near where the grown-ups are allowed to be.

It makes sense Trump wanted to go to Hanoi to achieve something substantial as was Kim but that was derailed in the end when John Bolton showed up and demanded chemical weapons be added at the last minute.

Kevin Gray@DrKevinGray

Former SK unification minister Chong Se-hyun suggests that summit was derailed by last minute attendance of Bolton, who added demands for NK to also report chemical/biological weapons, in response to which NKs increased their demand for sanctions relief https://www.nocutnews.co.kr/news/5111872

정세현 “합의문 괄호만 메우면 됐는데..볼턴때문에 사달난 듯”

CBS 라디오 ‘시사자키 정관용입니다’ ■ 방 송 : FM 98.1 (18:15~19:55) ■ 방송일 : 2019년 2월 28일 (목요일) ■ 진 행 : 정관용 (국민대 특임교수) ■ 출 연 : 정세현 전 통일부 장관 ◇ 정관용> 트럼프 대통령 기자회..

nocutnews.co.kr

This was confirmed by the North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-Ho at a brief press conference. From RT:

In exchange for partial lifting of sanctions by the US, North Korea would permanently remove plutonium and uranium processing facilities and Yongbyon, in the presence of US experts, Ri said, adding that the “US was not ready to accept our proposal.”

The North Korean official said Washington demanded “one more” measure beyond dismantling Yongbyon, which went too far for Pyongyang.

North Korea also offered written assurances of permanently desisting from nuclear and long-range missile testing.

Now, Trump sells this failure as a step forward. It’s dutifully lapped up by his base, while the power elite in the West breathe a sigh of relief that peace had been averted one more time.

This is a story that is getting harder and harder to write, frankly.

Trump starts out ready to do this thing that will change the course of history and then John Bolton tells him to sit down.

And he does.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

How sad is it that during the first day of the Hanoi Hilton Trump is meeting with Kim, Trump’s chief negotiator with China is throwing him under the bus in his testimony before Congress?

And then to undercut Trump more Bolton shows up and scuttles the whole thing quicker than you can say ‘toxic mustache.’

In the end Bolton knows that this process with Korea ends with U.S. troops leaving the peninsula along with all of our nuclear weapons. And that once it starts there is little to stop it from going all the way.

So it can’t be allowed to start.

But the reality is that the Koreas are the ones ultimately in control of this process. All John Bolton can do is slow it down, which he will.

Meanwhile Trump will continue to sell us on the idea he’s still President and everyone goes on pretending nothing has changed.

*  *  *

Please support the production of independent and alternative political and financial commentary by joining my Patreon and subscribing to the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Investment Newsletter for just $12/month

end

South Korea

My goodness: shipments fell 11.1% year over year in the powerful exporting nation of South Korea. This is hard data and suggests that the world’s economy is grinding to a halt.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

South Korean FinMin “Closely Monitoring Markets” After Exports Collapse

Between the failed Trump-Kim talks in Hanoi and now this collapse in exports (and imports), South Korea’s finance ministry has been quick to reassure investors that it will “closely monitor” financial markets…

South Korean exports tumbled more than expected in February, as slowing growth in China and falling semiconductor prices take a toll on Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

Shipments fell 11.1 percent from a year earlier, versus economists’ median forecast of a 9.5 percent drop.

Additionally, South Korean Chip exports fell 24.8% YoY in Feb (worse than the 23.3% YoY drop in Jan) as chip prices fell.

As a reminder, South Korea releases its trade data earlier than most other major economies and is a key link in the global supply chain, making it a bellwether for trade.

“Beijing is Seoul’s largest trading partner, with exports to China amounting to about 10 percent of Korea’s GDP,” said Bloomberg Economics’ Justin Jimenez.

“Our base case is that a continued cool down in Sino-U.S. tensions will provide some relief to China’s economy — and in turn, South Korea’s. A breakdown in talks though, remains the key risk.”

Imports fell 12.6 percent in February, compared with an 11.6 percent drop forecast by economists.

Just as with last night’s collapse in China’s PMIs, South Korean officials are blaming the trade collapse on a few shorts days in February due to the lunar new year.

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

i) CHINA/

China’s shadow debt business has finally hit a roadblock

(courtesy zerohedge)

“There’s No Money” – Has China’s Shadow-Debt Reckoning Finally Arrived?

Months before Beijing abandoned its deleveraging plans and approved a gargantuan 4.64 trillion yuan credit injection (including the “shadow” credit that the government had vowed to curb) – which, as we pointed out at the time, resembled the January 2016 “Shanghai Accord” intervention (when Beijing famously intervened to stop global stock markets from careening off a cliff) – a team of S&P credit analysts warned in an October report that China’s debt burden might be much larger than previously believed.

New

Social

Against a backdrop of soaring corporate defaults, the team from S&P warned that investors could safely tack on another ~40% of debt/GDP to China’s total (with even more likely hidden from view) after a careful analysis of a new source of shadow debt being tapped by local governments to further their development plans. These Local Government Financing Vehicles, or LGFVs, represented “an iceberg with titanic credit risks” as local officials had increasingly turned to these sources of shadow financing to finance development projects while bureaucrats in Beijing struggled to turn off the credit taps.

China

Now that Beijing has reckoned with the idea that now is not the time to try and contain the country’s massive debt load, even as the percentage of bad debt balloons, it increasingly appears that these measures might be too little, too late for investors who financed these LGFVs,as the Wall Street Journal revealed in a report about how a local government in China’s impoverished Southern had caused a stir by stiffing its creditors after racking up a debt pile – largely through these LGFVs – equivalent to roughly three times the government’s annual revenue.

When a group of wealthy investors traveled to Sanhe to confront the local government, they were swiftly rebuffed, leaving them little recourse to recover their money.

Meanwhile, many of the buildings that their money helped to finance stood half-finished.

A building splurge in this impoverished pocket of rural China ended in half-finished projects and a trail of angry investors from some of the country’s wealthiest areas.

On a recent winter workday, investors and representatives from private fund companies in Shanghai and elsewhere descended on Sandu,a county in the deep south where tens of thousands of locals live on less than a dollar a day. After taxi rides from the high-speed rail station that took them past incomplete buildings and a gigantic golden statue of a man on horseback, they sat in government offices, demanding repayment.

“We sympathize with you investors,” Jian Shiwei, deputy general manager of a Sandu government-backed investment company that borrowed hundreds of millions of yuan to develop the area. “But there’s no money right now.”

Though it might be tempting to chalk this up to the mismanagement of Sanhe’s local officials, WSJ claimed that situations like this are playing out in rural areas across China.

The standoff in Sandu is a microcosm of China’s mounting debt problem. Across the country, local governments and their more than 2,000 financing companies have run up trillions of dollars of debt to borrow and build their way to prosperity, tapping into ready financing from well-off investors chasing higher returns. Now the bills are coming due, and China’s slowing economy, curbs by Beijing on risky financing—and the massive scale of borrowing—are plaguing repayment and leaving some investors in limbo.

After the confrontation with investors and just before this month’s Lunar New Year holiday, Sandu hustled out interest payments for some overdue obligations. Still, investors and brokers estimate that the government and its companies will need to deliver two billion yuan ($297.6 million) more in payments this year, nearly three times Sandu’s annual revenue.

Many regional governments are already struggling with debt piles in excess of 100% debt-to-GDP, and that’s before factoring in the shadow financing sources.

China

And it’s not just wealthy Chinese fund managers who are being left in the lurch; many residents opted to invest in these vehicles after being seduced with high advertised returns – only to see their savings vanish. One investor who spoke with WSJ claimed that the shortfall wasn’t the local government’s fault, but a result of mismanagement and regulatory failures impacting the entire Chinese financial system.

“Sandu has its problems, but we can’t blame it,” said Jiang Xiaqiu, a factory owner and investor who bought 1.6 million yuan of Sandu’s debt via a private fund in Beijing, with an advertised 9% annual return. “It’s the whole financial system and how poorly regulated the private fund industry has been.”

Sandu’s government debt totaled 3.73 billion yuan in 2017, according to official figures. Deputy propaganda chief Wu Maohua declined to comment on what the sum includes; some economists, analysts and experts say it doesn’t cover recent borrowings by government-backed investment companies, including off-the-book borrowing from private funds.

In Sanhe, problems first arose after the local Communist Party chief was removed in a bribery investigation last year. The region missed its first debt payment in September, but has been struggling to make up these payments.

Mr. Wu said the county is working to resolve its debts, pointing to the overdue payments given to some investors. “You can see the government is being very diligent,” he said.

For its borrowing spree, Sandu turned to funds like the one Ms. Jiang invested in. These privately offered funds have mushroomed, with more than 74,000 of them, nearly 10 times the number five years ago. Independent brokers and wealth advisers market the funds to well-off clients. Ms. Jiang said a broker connected her with fund managers.

While putting a number on the amount of shadow debt in the system is difficult due to the opacity of the Chinese financial system, one economist at a domestic think tank estimated that off-balance-sheet borrowings by local governments could be as much as 23.6 trillion yuan,(3.4 TRILLION USA DOLLARS) as of the end of 2017, meaning that total is likely higher today, as governments have been forced to tap these vehicles during Beijing’s deleveraging campaign.

The proliferation of private funds and other money-raising channels for local governments makes it difficult for economists and for Beijing to track the total amount of borrowings.Official figures pegged the sum of local and central government debt at 29.95 trillion yuan ($4.457 trillion) in 2017, roughly 36% of the economy.

[…]

Off-balance-sheet borrowings by local governments are estimated to be nearly just as much, at 23.6 trillion yuan by 2017, according to Zhang Ming, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank. When this hidden debt is factored in, he said, total government debt is about 67% of the economy. But the proportion is much higher in some places, such as less-developed areas trying to catch up, and Mr. Zhang’s estimates don’t capture all borrowings, especially those involving private funds outside banking channels.

Fortunately, Beijing’s latest reversal should at least reopen the taps for on-the-books debt, allowing governments to restart some of these projects, and potentially raise money to pay back the LGFVs. But whether this could work as a long-term solution is doubtful, as most see it as just another episode of can-kicking by Beijing, in the absence of real structural reforms.

end

They are talking a final China/USA trade deal but do not buy it.

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Said To Prepare “Final China Trade Deal” But Skeptics Aren’t Buying It

Commenting on the disappointing outcome of Trump’s second Kim summit, UBS’ economist Paul Donovan writes that “the US president (like the rest of us) is subject to the economic problem – limited time, and lots of demand on that time. Time focused on Korea is time that cannot be spent tweeting about trade. The president may want a quick win on trade to offset the Korean situation. There are media reports of a mid-March summit with China and a “quick” trade deal.”

Indeed, at 1:37am ET overnight, Bloomberg reported that U.S. officials are preparing a “final trade deal” that President Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could sign in weeks. As Bloomberg further adds, “the U.S. is eyeing a summit between the two presidents as soon as mid-March” although the planning has been complicated by Xi’s need to lead China’s annual National People’s Congress in early March, as well as make other foreign trips.

Naturally, the report goes on to say that Trump will have the final call on the U.S. side, and references what he said in Vietnam when he showed he’s willing to walk away if he doesn’t like the terms on the table, including with China.

“Speaking of China we’re very well on our way to doing something special. But we’ll see,” Trump said at a press conference in Hanoi on Thursday. “I am always prepared to walk. I’m never afraid to walk from a deal, and I would do that with China, too, if it didn’t work out.”

The latest news of preparations for a Trump-Xi summit come amid conflicting signals from the Trump administration over the prospect of a deal. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday the two nations are working on a 150-page document that would turn into a “very detailed agreement,” though he cautioned that “we still have more work to do.”

Boosting the optimistic case, on Thursday Trump’s chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the countries are on the verge of an “historic” pact that would commit Beijing to cut subsidies on state-owned companies and disclose when its central bank intervenes in currency markets.

“The progress has been terrific,” Kudlow, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, said in an interview on CNBC. “We have to hear from President Xi and the Politburo of course, but I think we’re headed toward a remarkable historic deal.”

The comments by Kudlow, the trade “good cop”, came just a day after Trump’s top trade negotiator struck a far more pessimistic tone: trade “bad cop” USTR Robert Lighthizer told lawmakers that more work needs to be done and said the administration won’t accept a deal that doesn’t include significant “structural” changes to China’s state-driven economy. He also stressed the need for a enforcement mechanism, allowing the U.S. to take unilateral action if China breaks the rules.

So is a trade deal with China imminent? Perhaps, although as skeptics have repeatedly pointed out, any such “deal” wouldn’t be worth the paper it is printed on. One such skeptic is Rabobank’s Michael Every who provides the following commentary on “what might have happened” in Vietnam to force Trump to come home empty-handed without even a hint of an agreement:

Perhaps Trump had no game plan other than to dangle the keys to Disneyland under Kim’s nose. Perhaps Kim saw Trump was under pressure domestically and thought he needed an easy win of a signing ceremony meaning nothing. Perhaps Trump is under pressure from looking weak on China so had to look tough here. Or perhaps it was the menu: marinated tender sirloin grilled served with kimchi fermented inside a pear may have been a bit OTT for DT. (Indeed, CNN’s Will Ripley —believe it or not— prophetically tweeted ahead of the walkout: “A source close to the planning of tonight’s dinner in Hanoi with Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un says it has been a struggle to get the menu approved by the US and North Korea. If they had a hard time negotiating what’s for dinner, what does that say about denuclearization talks?!”)

Yet just perhaps China wasn’t prepared to sign off on Kim making nice with the US. Consider that the editor of China’s snarky Global Times backs Kim’s “reasonable demand” to lift some sanctions first. So let’s presume China played a spoiler role: what do you think is going to happen with the US-China trade deal the markets are so certain is in the bag? Yes, Trump might still need a quick ‘win’: but he’s also just shown he will walk away from a bad deal even when there is a Nobel Prize on the line, and has won bipartisan support at home from doing so. Meanwhile, Bloomberg has a report on US-China trade suggesting it is the US that is taking the larger hit to its exports at USD40bnThat doesn’t say the US is “losing” a trade battle with China due to tariffs: it shows exports to China have plummeted because Beijing has boycotted US goods entirely. So what’s the real message? That China is not a market economy and if you want to win a trade war with it you have to walk away from it tooYes, Bloomberg also reports Larry Kudlow says the US is on the cusp of a “remarkable, historic deal” where China will buy more, “significantly” cut subsidies to SOEs, and disclose PBOC intervention in the FX market. But let’s see how the reality matches the hype, especially over enforcement. For example, the US just won a WTO case against China over its price support for wheat, corn, and rice: are they really going to act on the back of it? Like they did with Mastercard and Visa?

So where does that leave Trump according to Every:

Wait for Kim to ring and hope he doesn’t start testing again? Or talk to the real boss further north – the one not buying US goods? Nothing is certain – but that still includes the comfortable assumption of the best outcome in the best of all possible worlds, which is what markets are still pricing for.

Whatever the outcome of the “imminent” trade deal with China, with the S&P set to open back over 2,800, it appears that all the best case outcomes are once again in the market.

end

China/Canada/Huawei/Meng//

Canada allows the extradition of Meng to move forward.  There must still be a hearing which will be on March 6 and then the Canadians can decide to send her to the uSA. Needless to say that relations between China and Canada will spiral southbound.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Canada Allows Extradition Of Huawei CFO To Move Forward

In a landmark – if widely expected – decision, the Department of Justice in Ottawa has ruled that extradition proceedings against Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, who was arrested on the same day that President Trump and President Xi struck their trade truce in Buenos Aires, will proceed.

Though whether or not she will face trial in the US must still be determined by a Canadian court, a process that could take months or even years, the fact that her extradition is moving forward is still a big moment in a case that has captivated investors and elicited threats of retribution against Ottawa from Beijing.

Meng is wanted in the US on charges of fraud and sanctions violations for her alleged role in deceiving HSBC and other banks into processing transactions for Huawei that were purportedly linked to Iran. US prosecutors filed roughly a dozen charges against Meng and Huawei in January, as well as a formal request for her extradition, according to the BBC.

Meng

The ruling, which comes one day after court proceedings against Huawei and its US subsidiary began in a Seattle court room, could reignite tensions between Ottawa and Beijing, which have de-escalated somewhat since Beijing detained several Canadian nationals in what was widely seen as retaliation for Meng’s arrest. The decision could also complicate US-China trade talks as Trump and Xi prepare for a meeting later this month where they hope to strike a sweeping trade deal that would prevent further tariffs on exports from the world’s second-largest economy.

“An extradition hearing is not a trial nor does it render a verdict of guilt or innocence,” the justice department said in a statement on Friday.

“If a person is ultimately extradited from Canada to face prosecution in another country, the individual will have a trial in that country,” the department said in a statement on Friday.

While the decision is certainly a blow to Meng, who remains free on bail, a Canadian court will ultimately make the final decision, and could still halt her extradition. There will now be a court hearing on March 6 that will then schedule a date for the hearing.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

 

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

A good look at two nations economic outlook and both are bad:

1. the uSA

2. Germany

(courtesy John Rubino)

Remember, The Fed Hasn’t Actually Done Anything Yet

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

When the financial markets got, um, choppy towards the end of 2018, the Fed caved almost instantly. But only rhetorically.

Fed chair Powell promised to stop raising interest rates and shrinking the money supply, and the financial markets, trained to salivate at the sound of Fed happy talk, immediately morphed from “risk-off” to “risk-on.” Stocks are now approaching last year’s all-time highs, bond prices are way up (which is to say long-term interest rates are way down) and the financial press is back to celebrating the “Goldilocks economy.”

But remember that as far as actual monetary policy goes, nothing has changed. Last year’s Fed Funds rate increases are still in place, while the Fed’s balance sheet remains diminished (which is to say the cash drained from the economy as the bonds in the Fed’s account were retired remains out of action). So the damage has not been undone, and it’s starting to bite. Some examples:

US retail sales are falling:


source: tradingeconomics.com

Housing, which a year ago was in a mini-bubble, is rolling over. Housing starts are down…


source: tradingeconomics.com

… while existing home sales have cratered:


source: tradingeconomics.com

US manufacturing orders missed big in the most recent reporting month:

Corporate earnings, meanwhile, are so weak that analysts are talking about an “earnings recession”:

From a February Zero Hedge article:

One week ago, when looking at the dramatic collapse in consensus Q1 EPS estimates, we noted that the “profit party” is over and the days of near record earnings growth are about to end with a bang as a result of the recent barrage in profit warnings and negative preannouncements, first and foremost starting with Apple, which issued a shocking guidance cut one month ago for the first time since 2001. As a result, analysts have slashed their S&P500 earnings estimates for the first quarter, and the Q1 bottom-up EPS estimate dropped by 4.1% (to $38.55 from $40.21) during this period.

All eleven sectors recorded a decline in their bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of the quarter, led by Energy (-22.5%) and Information Technology (-7.3%). Overall, seven sectors recorded a larger decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate relative to their 5-year average and their 10-year average for the first month of a quarter.

And the slowdown is global. Here’s German GDP growth:

In February MarketWatch asked:

Is Germany already in a ‘technical’ recession? These economists think so

Investors are worried that a global slowdown led by China could begin to sap U.S. growth, but it’s Europe that’s looking a little sickly at the moment.

Expectations that Germany, Europe’s largest economy, could post a second consecutive quarter of falling gross domestic product were on the rise after a dismal reading on November industrial production last week, which showed a 1.9% fall, defying a forecast for a 0.3% rise.

“Industrial production data was a proper disappointment this month. Our German GDP tracker has deteriorated to minus 0.1% [quarter-on-quarter]. This would be the second consecutive [quarter-on-quarter] GDP contraction, meaning Germany could now be in a technical recession,” wrote economists Evelyn Herrmann and Gilles Moec at Bank of American Merrill Lynch, in a Monday note (see chart below).

Germany’s slowdown is attributable in part to slowing activity in China, the economists said. And concerns about China are certainly on the rise thanks to homegrown headwinds and the continued trade battle with the U.S.

What does all this mean? Mainly that despite the recent bounce in US financial asset prices, the Fed didn’t succeed in stabilizing the real economy. With the major countries pretty much all slowing down, corporate profits will likely fall this year. Falling corporate profits tend not so support record-high share prices. And the longer the slowdown continues the bigger the risk that stock investors will catch on and panic, taking us back to the flash bear market of late 2018.

Then it gets interesting. Realizing that words have failed, the Fed will be forced to stop promising and start delivering. So the second act of this play will be not just a pause but a reversal of last year’s tightening.

But this won’t work either. A modest reduction in interest rate cuts and slight increase in asset purchases will buy, at most, another two-month pop in share prices, followed by another realization that the economy is still weakening, followed by yet another, probably much bigger stock market plunge.

Eventually, we’ll settle into a permanent state of ever-increasing QE, zero-to-negative interest rates and every imaginable kind of fiscal stimulus.

A simple way to gauge our place on this path is the price of goldWhen Act Two (gradually falling interest rates, modest QE) is implemented, gold should bounce back up to around $2,000/oz. Once Act Three (massive, permanent QE, NIRP, bailouts for bankrupt states and cities) is in full swing, gold should pass $5,000 on its way to infinity

end

Australia

Wolf Richter notes that home prices in Sydney and Melbourne are spiraling down.

(courtesy Wolf Richter)

 

Home Prices in Sydney & Melbourne Spiral Down, Bust Spreads. IMF to Regulators: “Reinforce Financial Crisis Management”

 

Bitter irony: Government told first-time buyers 5 months before bust began to “get into the Sydney housing market”; once in, “you’re pretty well set for life.”

“Nothing goes to heck in a straight line” because there is always a bounce, sooner or later – that’s my story and I’m sticking to it, but it does get tested from time to time, including in Australia’s housing bust.

Across the metro area of Sydney, prices of all types of homes combined, according to CoreLogic’s Home Value Index, fell 1.0% in February from January, 10.4% from a year ago, and nearly 13% from its peak in July 2017. Just over the past four months, the index has dropped 5.5%:

The volume of closed sales recorded in Sydney in February plunged 20.6% from the already weak sales in February last year, according to CoreLogic’s report.

Condos, generally the lower end of the market, is where first-time buyers are thought to have a chance, and they were considered the saving grace in this market. But prices continue to drop, and the industry’s hope that first time buyers would bail out this market is now fading.

  • House prices dropped 1.1% in February and 11.5% year-over-year.
  • Condo prices dropped 0.8% in February and 8.8% year-over-year.

In the Melbourne metro, the second largest market in Australia, prices of all types of homes fell 1% for the month and 9.1% year-over-year, according to the CoreLogic Home Value Index. The index is now down nearly 10% from the peak in November 2017. Over just the past four months, the index for Melbourne dropped 5.0%:

House prices in Melbourne dropped 1.2% for the month and 11.5% year-over-year. Condo prices dropped 0.6% for the months and 3.7% year-over year. CoreLogic estimates that closed sales in Melbourne plunged 22.1% in February from the already weak sales a year ago.

Of the bottom 10 sub-regions of Australia’s capital cities seven were in the Sydney metro and three were in Melbourne (chart via CoreLogic):

There is a bitter irony to all this. In February 2017, just months before the market in Sydney peaked, Anthony Roberts, New South Wales Minister for Planning and Housing, was promoting the launch of a 690-unit apartment development at Olympic Park, a suburb of Sydney, heaping praise on the developer for having reserved 60 units for first-time buyers.

Roberts was hyping new incentives for first-time buyers, including a reduction of the down-payment to 5%, to lure them into the Sydney housing market:

“This is about fairness, and this is about enabling people to get into the Sydney housing market. Once you are in the Sydney housing market, you’re pretty well set then for the rest of your life.”

It induced me to write an article with this headline, obviously: Housing Bubble in Sydney Soars to New High, Politicians Promote Scheme to Bitter End, with this image of the Sydney Morning Herald’s eternally glorious headline:

The metros of Sydney and Melbourne, due to their enormous size and high prices, dominate the national home values, but weakness is now spreading to other capital cities, with only Hobart and Canberra still showing year-over-year gains (in parenthesis, CoreLogic’s measure of “median value”):

  • Sydney: -10.4% (A$789K)
  • Melbourne: -9.1% (A$629K)
  • Brisbane: -0.5% (A$491K)
  • Adelaide: -1.0% ($433K)
  • Perth: -6.9% (A$439K)
  • Hobart +7.2% (A$457K)
  • Darwin: -5.3% (A$398K)
  • Canberra +3.4% (A$594K)

On a national basis, the CoreLogic Home Value Index dropped 6.3% year-over-year and 6.8% from its peak in October 2017. It’s now back where it had been in September 2016. CoreLogic’s report points out that, despite the decline, the index remains 18% higher than it had been five years ago, “highlighting that most home owners remain in a strong equity position.” Only recent buyers are underwater.

That’s a calming thought, even for the Reserve Bank of Australia, according to the minutes for its Monetary Policy Meeting on February 5, 2019, when it decided to maintain its policy rate at the record low level of 1.5%:

From a longer-run perspective, members assessed that, following such large increases in housing prices, the effect of the recent price falls on overall economic activity was expected to be relatively small.

From a financial stability perspective, tighter lending standards, an improving labor market and low interest rates were all likely to support households’ capacity to service their debt.

Few households were in negative equity positions despite the falls in housing prices, implying that banks’ losses would be limited even if household financial stress were to become more widespread.

The IMF was less sanguine in its assessment of Australia. It found that “the financial sector faces continued vulnerabilities from high household debt, still-stretched real estate valuations, and banks’ ongoing dependence on funding from global markets.”

The assessment “recommended further steps to bolster financial supervision as well as to reinforce financial crisis management,” which might be a good idea.

What banks & housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne are facing in 2019. Read…  Forced End of “Ponzi-Like Leverage” & “Fraudulent Lending” Turns Australia’s House Price Bubble into “Property Bloodbath”

end

Canada

The Canadian Looney tumbles on an unexpected drop for two consecutive months in Canadian GDP

As I am stating, the entire world’s economies are grinding to a screeching halt

(courtesy zerohedge)

Canada In Recession? GDP Unexpectedly Drops For 2nd Month In A Row

Canadian GDP just contracted for the second month in a row, leaving the headline Canada GDP up just 0.4% SAAR in 4Q, according to Statistics Canada (dramatically below the estimate of +1.0%). The headline quarterly change misses even lowest of economist estimates.

Under the hood it was just as ugly, with household consumption growth slowing further to 0.7% QoQ (weakest since 2015), investment and housing declining sharply, and helped only by an inventories accumulation (inventories added 1.53 percentage points to growth in 4Q).

Business gross fixed capital formation dropped 9.6% in 4Q, from -8.4% in previous quarter:

  • Non-residential investment falls 10.9%, largest decline since 2016
  • Residential structures fall 14.7%, biggest decline since 2009

Final domestic demand tumbled 1.5% in 4Q, from -0.5% in previous quarter

Worse still, first half of 2018 growth revised down to 2.0% from 2.3%. 

But apart from that – everything is awesome and you should be buying Canadian stocks!!

The result – as Poloz et al. are about to reverse all hawkishness even further – a tumble in the loonie…

 

 

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

Venezuela

Venezuela closes it’s European offices in Lisbon Portugal and moves it to Moscow. Putin affirms his support for the bus driver Maduro

(courtesy zero hedge)

Venezuela Orders PDVSA Offices Relocate To Moscow; Putin Affirms Support To “Friend” Maduro

A top Venezuelan official has announced that President Nicolas Maduro has ordered national oil and gas company PDVSA to close its current European headquarters in Lisbon, Portugal and move it to Moscow. The announcement came from Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez during a press conference standing alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on Friday.

“President Nicolas Maduro instructed the Lisbon branch of PDVSA to close this office and relocate the office to Moscow,” Rodriguez said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency. It appears the relocation is already underway, and is part of the framework of “broadening cooperation” with Russian energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom, according to the statement.

Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A., PDVSA offices, via AFP

The Venezuelan vice president said, “This is done in line with our plans to expand technical cooperation in the oil production area with Rosneft, with Gazprom. The moment now is the most suitable to do so. We are changing the format of our relations.” And she added, “It’s the perfect time, as we are reshaping our relations.”

As part of the press briefing, Russian FM Lavrov conveyed President Putin’s words of support and solidarity to his “friend” President Maduro in a further clear sign that Moscow has dedicated itself to helping Venezuela’s state oil company weather the storm of US economic war and sanctions.

Lavrov explained in the press conference, “Russia will further help the Venezuelan government to solve social and economic problems, which includes lending support via legitimate humanitarian aid.”

This after what’s been widely acknowledged as failed US-led coup efforts over the past weeks in support of opposition leader Juan Gaido, who has tried to rally support for greater external “pro-democracy” intervention against the Caracas government. As part of her remarks Rodriguez slammed what she called a US “operation” of “sabotage” against a “legal government” spearheaded by White House envoy to Venezuela Elliott Abrams.

The Venezuelan vice president said:

As far as operation against Venezuela is concerned, it’s headed by a person experienced in such kind of sabotage, person who repeatedly spoke against legal governments, Mr. Abrams. There are certain plans, certain steps aimed at creation of illegal armed groups according to the US tradition, creation of terror groups. The whole world knows it’s doing that, it’s not a secret. The US supports such extremist illegal terror groups to destabilize the world.

Lavrov backed her assessment as follows: “We are concerned about the US plans to arm militants to destabilize the situation in Venezuela and, strictly speaking, to invade this sovereign country, as the US does not hesitate to speak openly about them,” said the Russian foreign minister.

Friday’s words vowing closer relations between Moscow and Caracas come after Maduro made an official visit to meet with Putin in December, where the two inked broad deals for increased trade and investment in various industries and finance.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1414 UP .0035 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.70  DOWN .104 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3300    DOWN   0.0017  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3167 UP .0022 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 35 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1414 Last night Shanghai composite closed UP 53.05 POINTS OR 1.80%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 178.99   POINTS OR 0.43% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .34%/EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED UP 217.53 POINTS OR 1.62% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 178.99 POINTS OR 0.63%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 53.05 POINTS OR 1.80% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .34%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 217.53 POINTS OR 1.62%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1306.75

silver:$15.51

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.73% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.10 UP  1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.19 UP 3 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.49% UP 2   in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.20% UP 3   IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.73 DOWN 2    POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 153 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES  TO +.19%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.54% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1379 UP   .0007 or 7 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.88 UP .512 OR YEN DOWN 51 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3225 DOWN.0037( POUND DOWN 37  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 114 basis points to 1.3267

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7064    0N SHORE  (DOWN)

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7126(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.3760

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.74 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.11 UP 3  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.36 UP 20 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP  33.30 OR 0.47%

German Dax : UP 83.41 POINTS OR .72%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 22.42 POINTS OR  0.43%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 9.60 POINTS OR  0.10%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 50.33 POINTS OR 0.24%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.27 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 65.15 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.87  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.12 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 12 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO +.19 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.75

 

 

BRENT :  64.87

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.77.. bond market..GETTING DANGEROUS AS YIELDS RISE

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.13..

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1365 ( DOWN 8   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.94 UP .576 (YEN DOWN 58   BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.46 UP30 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3214  DOWN 50 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3760

the Russian rouble 65.92   UP .04 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 4 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3294 DOWN 130 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7064  (ONSHORE)/CLOSED FOR THE WEEK

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7159  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.19%

 

The Dow closed UP 110.32 POINTS OR 0.43%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 62.82POINTS OR 0.83%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.57 CLOSED DOWN 1.21 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.615%//LIBOR HEADING DOWN!!   

 

 

FROM 2.626

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Nasdaq Extends Longest Win Streak Since 1999 As Macro Data, Earnings Crash

Another week of global bond yields, earnings expectations, and macro-economic data signaling shit is hitting the fan as stocks push higher and higher on surging central bank balance sheets and global money supply…

At what point does Jay Powell look himself in the mirror and realize what a farce his entire life’s work has become.

*  *  *

 

Chinese stocks saw the best week since 2015 (mainly thanks to Monday’s utter farce)…

 

Mixed picture in Europe with FTSE 100 the big laggard on endless Brexit headlines and Italy up most just because nothing terrible happened this week…

 

Mixed bag in US markets this week no matter how many dead cat bounces hit. Nasdaq outperformed dramatically, Trannies worst, Dow clung to unchanged and S&P was all about 2800…

The Dow desperately tried to close above 26032 (but failed), ending itsweekly win streak at 9.

Nasdaq is up 10 weeks in a row… the longest win streak since 1999 (when it rose 11 weeks in a row to Dec 1999)…

 

Buyback-related stocks ended the week lower but “most shorted” are up 8 of the last 10 weeks (with only very marginally lower weeks in the odd 2)…

 

S&P tried again to break above and hodl 2800…

 

Tesla tumbled as Musk’s mysterious announcement disappointed…

 

Grocers also got hit as AMZN announced plans to roll out its own foodseller…

 

Ugly day for mall operators as retailers in the last 48 hours announce plans to cull over 300 stores

 

Treasury yields soared this week…the worst week for 10Y Yields (up over 10bps) in 4 months (midterms)

 

With 10Y Yields well and truly breaking out of their descending triangle…extending the yields rise today despite terrible macro data.

 

With inflation breakevens soaring alongside WTI (until today)…

 

And all the while, markets remain priced for rate-cuts in 2019!!

 

It appears bond yields are playing catch up with equity Cyclicals relative to Defensives (but we saw how that ended last time)…

 

The Dollar had a solid week (continuing its week on, week off pattern this year)…soaring higher this afternoon despite terrible macro data today

 

The surging dollar spoiled the party in EM also

 

Cryptos were all lower on the week with Ether leading the drop…

 

The soaring dollar took the shine off commodities today with PMs suffering most…

 

Gold tumbled (worst day since June 2018) back below its 50DMA for the first time since Thanksgiving…

 

Silver plummeted to its key technical support… (worst week for silver since June 2017)

 

And gold relative to silver hit its highest since the start of the year back above the important 85x ratio…

 

Notably, Gold in yuan terms dropped to its weakest since before Xmas…

 

Finally, which one of these four charts makes you laugh the most?

Stocks decoupled from Earnings expectations…

Stocks decoupled from Macro data…

Global Stocks decoupled from global bonds…

Global Stocks perfectly coupled with Global Money Supply (and Global Central Bank balance sheets)…

At what point does Jay Powell look himself in the mirror and realize what a farce his entire life’s work has become.

END

MARKET TRADING

We have been highlighting to you the falling in Treasury bond prices  i.e. higher yields as China adds huge stimulus to the global economy. This will end not too good

(courtesy zerohedge)

Nomura Has Just One Word As Treasurys Tumble

After going almost nowhere for 2 months, bond yields are sharply higher again after decisively breaking out of the descending triangle two days ago, having jumped 12bps in just the past 2 days (for a variety of reasons discussed most recently last night)…

… and this is great news to Nomura’s Charlie McElligott who has been predicting the sharp curve steepening we are observing for the past 2 months, most recently two days ago when he doubled down his call for a resurgence in the “reflation trade“.

Commenting on the latest sharp move higher in yields which is taking place alongside the “risk-on” rally in stocks together with the ongoing bear-steepening in bonds, McElligott attributes it to two key drivers:

  1. Bloomberg reported at 1:37am EST overnight that U.S. officials are preparing a final trade deal that President Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could sign in weeks (with a summit as soon as mid-March);
  2. At 6:30am EST, MNI came out with an exclusive story from government advisor “sources” stating that “China is set to announce further fiscal stimulus to boost a slowing economy, with measures likely to include raising the budget deficit, increasing quotas for local government debt and further cutting taxes and fees”

Having emerged as a key driver of the “reflation” narrative largely thanks to its record credit injection in January, China next week could see the announcement of reduced tax burdens, with policymakers and politicians gathering for the annual “Two Sessions” meetings, with “lower employer social insurance payments, value-added tax rate cuts and even corporate income tax (cuts)” all as possibilities according to Nomura. Additionally, Charlie adds that according to reports, the targeted budget deficit ratio will increase this year from 2.6% of gross GDP seen in 2018—and that even though “above 3% remains taboo,” Jia Kang—the former head of a Finance Ministry research institute, told MNI that authorities should consider a budget deficit of 3% if not higher, noting the level was only a psychological threshold.

What does the reversal in inflation sentiment mean for bigger picture themes?

As McElligott explains, “with Bonds now “breaking-down” after having been pricing-in a significant global slowdown, higher Nominals and the ongoing / grinding CURVE-STEEPENING look like the TACTICAL path of least resistance once again, as the above actions are optically PRO-GROWTH and REFLATIONARY—thus the recent + “Cyclicals over Defensives” within Equities / + Commodities / + Breakevens dynamic should continue in the coming weeks.”

However, as he observed recently, the risk continues to be this sequencing of seemingly idiosyncratic events which could converge in a “March Surprise” risk off event, to create a supply/demand reversal within US Equities just as investors are “forced to chase” back-into the market at the local 4m highs and Retail seeing capitulation from bears, which can be seen in the latest AAII Bears chart, which has hit the lowest level since March 1st 2018:

While McElligott once again repeats his new argument why the market may hit turbulence heading into the March 15 quarterly op-ex, the focus is on what to expect from bonds, where he sees the “max long” bond deleveraging adjustment only just beginning, for the following reasons:

  • In Wednesday’s note “CONSENSUS “LONG” IN BONDS A NEAR-TERM ASYMMETRICAL RISK…” I spoke to “just how bullish” sentiment and positioning was within the Global DM Bond space across both Active- and Systematic- funds—and that this consensual positioning was then at risk “…IF we were to then see any global upside data surprise…”
  • What were the metrics I used to capture the “bullish bonds” consensus as of Wednesday morning?  Let’s revisit:
    • JPMorgan’s US Treasury Investor Sentiment Index this week made new highs since Sep16, a +2 Standard Deviation “bullishness” relative to the past 5 years
    • The Nomura QIS Risk Parity model $ notional allocation to USTs sits at highs last seen in May13, while the overall Global Bond $notional is at our series highs dating back to at least 2011
    • The Nomura QIS CTA model as of this morning shows an almost consensual “Max Long” across global DM Bonds:  “+100% Long” in USD 10Y, JPY 10Y, CAD 10Y, CHF 10Y, FRA 10Y and ESP 10Y, while EUR 10Y, GBP 10Y and AUD 10Y are all “+95% Long”

Since McElligott laid out why the market may be wrongfooted with its “bullish bond consensus”, we have since seen

  1. US Pending Home Sales big beat,
  2. a massive Chicago PMI beat,
  3. a surprisingly strong US Q4 GDP QoQ and
  4. Core PCE QoQ…while last night we saw on the global front, we saw
  5. China Caixin PMI Manufacturing surprise beat to the upside vs survey and prior result as well (48.5 survey, 49.9 actual, 48.3 prior)

Putting all this together, McElligott’s one-word assessment was summarized in just one word…

  • “BOOM”

… which can be seen as a victory lap of sorts as we have now seen the “global upside data surprise” catalyst – i.e., the reflation trade narrative – which has “sparked the flame” of what is now a pretty visceral stop-out/profit-take/signal-flip/range-break in Rates, with particularly massive volumes at the 3pm ‘marks’ yesterday (MUCH higher than a typical “month end” trade) incuding +33.5k TUM, +82k FVM, +110k TYM, +30.5k USM, +23k WNM, and as we observed on Wednesday, the descending triangle pattern is no more.

So what happens next? Well, as long as the “reflation narrative” is alive, and it appears that economic data may now be turning in both the US (strong GDP, just ignore the dismal spending data) and China (a rebound in the Caixin Mfg PMI), which will force more TSY longs to cover, but the real catalyst will be when the trend-following CTAs capitulate, and start shorting 10Y. What is the trigger levelto watch? According to Nomura, with 10Y TSY CTAs currently 76% long, they would be buying more above 122.05 to get to 86% , max long over 122.23, while selling would resume under 120.2 to get to 57% , more selling under 119.7 to get to -16% , flip to short under 119.7, max short under 119.36.

The full CTA trigger estimates by asset class are shown below.

end

ii)Market data/

This is not good for GDP numbers;  December personal income fell .1% month/month when the street was expecting a huge .3% rise.  That put a dart into their balloon.  The personal spending plunged a massive .5% month/month in January and no doubt ta small percentage was due to the government shutdown from Dec 21 onward.  Interestingly enough no spending data was forthcoming from January..we only have December numbers

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

US Real Spending Crashes In December As Savings Rate Soars

Following government shutdown delays, data for Dec and Jan spending and income has just been released and its a bloodbath.

Confirming the collapse in retail sales that was called an outlier, December personal income fell 0.1% MoM (against expectations of a 0.3% rise) – the worst drop since Jan 2013; while personal spending plunged 0.5% MoM in January – the worst drop since Sept 2009!

What was bizarre is that as published by the BEA, the data revealed income data for January, but all the spending data for January was missing, as only December data was included (see link).

On a YoY basis, spending grew 4.0% in December – the weakest since Aug 2017; and in January incomes grew 4.3% YoY – back to the flattest in two years…

Additionally, real personal spending crashed 0.6% MoM…

That is the biggest drop since Sept 2009.

One thing is for sure – the collapse in the savings rate to placate the exuberance in spending confidence may have just hit a wall…

Finally, the reason why the economy collapsed in December is that as a result of the plunge in the market and the government shutdown, US consumers stopped spending and the savings rate soared…

… by the biggest monthly increase in 5 years, and the second biggest since the financial crisis.

Is terrible news on America’s consumer, great news for the market? We shall see.

 end
Oh OH!! this is not good: US Manufacturing Survey shows manufacturing plunging to 26 month lows
(courtesy zerohedge)

“We Are Concerned About A Slight Recession” – US Manufacturing Survey Plunges To 26-Month Lows

With US economic data at its most disappointing in 18 months, it should not be surprising that Markit’s US Manufacturing PMI plummeted to 53.0 in February – its lowest since August 2017. Under the hood in the PMI data, new orders tumbled to 52.7 (lowest since June 2017), and output slowed to its weakest since Sept 2017.

ISM’s Manufacturing survey rebounded in January (like PMI) after December’s plunge, and was expected to slide back modestly in February, but it didn’t – it plunged back to cycle lows 54.2 – the lowest since Dec 2016.

As a reminder, the last time the ISM imploded two months ago, it was the catalyst that sent stocks plunging. So far, however, it has not had much of an impact on risk assets as the narrative now is that China can reflate the world.

Looking at the index, ISM Prices Paid contracted (49.4) for the second month in a row as new orders and employment stumbled.

The complaints by respondents largely focused on weak exports and trade, a function of the ongoing trade war with China, as well as the occasional weather lament:

  • “Strong domestics market. Slow export markets.” (Paper Products)
  • “Demand remains healthy at the beginning of 2019. However, growing concerns for what could be another round of tariffs in March are further escalating price increases of already constrained electronic components. Expect to see increased lead times and prices throughout Q1 and Q2.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Strong start to the year, though weather has been a challenge.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Still fairly steady with production and services.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “Economy showing general strength, especially in manufacturing. Cost pressures and tariff challenges persist but are manageable. General outlook is for stability and potential improvement in the second half of 2019.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Orders remain strong. Supplier delivery continues to be challenged on some commodities.” (Machinery)
  • “Aerospace engine-related business continues to be strong. Energy and general industry-related business is flat to down.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • “Business so far this year is meeting, but not exceeding, our forecast. We are concerned about indicators showing a slight recession for the second half of the calendar year.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • Uncertainty of steel prices due to Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and lack of resolution of the anti-dumping trade cases.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  • “General business conditions started to slow at the end of January, continuing through February.” (Plastics and Rubber Products)

For his part, not even IHS Chief Business Economist  Chris Williamson sounded his usual upbeat self:

“The PMI indicates the US manufacturing sector is growing at its weakest rate for one and a half years, with firms reporting a marked easing in production growth in February, linked to a similar slowdown in order book growth.

“The survey exhibits a strong advance correlation with comparable official data, and suggests that factory production and orders growth rates are close to stalling mid-way through the first quarter, albeit in part representing some pay-back after a strong January. Export markets remained the principal drag on order books.

“Having seen demand grow faster than production through much of 2018, order book and output trends have come back into line in recent months, hinting at an alleviation of capacity constraints as demand cools. Backlogs of works barely rose as a result, and price pressures have likewise moderated, though tariffs were again reported to have pushed costs higher. Hiring has consequently also slowed.

“Worries regarding the impact of tariffs and trade wars, alongside wider poltical uncertainty, undermined business confidence, with expectations of future growth running at one of the most subdued levels seen for over two years and suggesting downside risks prevail for coming months.

Of course, this is just the kind of bad news the stock market will love – dismal US manufacturing means the Fed is on hold for even longer (and/or QE or rate-cuts imminent), which can only be great news for stocks, now that the market is back to trading the way it did under QE.

end
University of Michigan Confidence slumps in February. It is a soft data and the index is now at 2 yr lows
(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich Confidence Slumps In Late February, Near 2-Year Lows

U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell from an initial February reading and remained near the prior month’s two-year low, signaling that Americans haven’t quite shaken off the government shutdown and trade war.

The University of Michigan’s final February sentiment index was 93.8, well below the preliminary reading of 95.5. Most notably, the measure of current conditions weakened from the earlier reading to the lowest since November 2016while expectations were lower than in the initial report.

Following the dismal spending datya earlier today, UMich’s report showed 25 percent of all consumers reported worsening finances, the highest proportion recorded since Donald Trump was elected president

Buying Conditions rebounded in February…

The data contrast with other February sentiment readings that were more upbeat after the government shutdown ended and stocks rallied.

“The bounce-back from the end of the federal shutdown faded in late February,” Richard Curtin, director of the Michigan survey, said in a statement.

“While the overall level of confidence remains diminished, it is still quite positive.”

However, while upper- and middle-class income-earners’ confidence rebounded, low-income earners’ confidence slipped lower…

Upper-income households anticipated a 3 percent income gain, “well above those with incomes in the bottom two- thirds,” according to the report. Which leaves the question – why don’t the poor just pile all their hard-earned minimum wages into the stock market? Everything would be ‘equal’ then, right?

Finally, long-term inflation expectations reading of 2.3% matches record low…

end
It did not take Goldman Sachs, the Atlanta Fed and the New York Fed to revise its estimate of Q1 GDP
1. Goldman Sachs at only .90%
2) New York Fed: .88%
3.Atlanta Fed: .3%
(zerohedge)

GDP Crash: Goldman, Atlanta & NY Feds See Q1 GDP Tumble Below 1%

While the market was delighted on Thursday to see a delayed Q4 GDP print of 2.6%, which came in well above the expected 2.2% consensus number, we warned that “while Q4 was clearly a stronger than expected print, the real question is what happens in Q1, when most banks and nowcasts expect GDP to print below 1%, in some cases concerningly so.”

Moments ago we got confirmation of precisely this, when following the latest dismal economic data including a 2 year low in the manufacturing ISM, a miss in UMich Consumer Sentiment, and a near record plunge in personal spending, Goldman launched its Q1 GDP tracking estimate at a paltry +0.9%. This forecast, as Goldman’s chief economist Hatzius said, “reflects an expected drag from inventories, sequentially slower consumption growth, a decline in residential investment, and a four-tenths drag from the government shutdown.”

It wasn’t just Goldman, because at roughly the same time, the NY Fed’s GDP Nowcast, which was launched to counter the Atlanta Fed’s famous GDP tracker, crumbled from 1.22% last week (and 2.17% as recently as a month ago), to a stunning 0.88%as a result of big declines in Personal Consumption, Housing Starts, Wholesale Inventories, and others.

And speaking of the Atlanta Fed, it also just released its latest Q1 GDP nowcast, and it’s a doozy, with the initial estimate coming just barely positive at only 0.3%, to wit:

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on March 1. The initial estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 28 was 2.6 percent, 0.8 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released the previous day.

It appears that now assured Q1 earnings recession won’t be in isolation, with the broader US economy now on the verge of contracting, if only for just one quarter. The question then becomes whether China’s massive reflation attempts are successful, and lead to a rebound in US growth in the second quarter. If not, what was expected to become the longest US expansion in history in June 2019, will be prematurely terminated by a technical recession just as Donald Trump was set to make a new economic record.

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Heineken USA is cutting its workforce by 15%.  Conditions must be terrible for this beer operation in the uSA

(courtesy zerohedge)

Heineken USA Cuts 15% Of Workforce 

A few weeks ago, when observing the collapse in consensus Q1 EPS estimates, we noted that the “profit party” is over and the era of near-record earnings growth was about to end as a result of the recent barrage in profit warnings from US companies. One industry that has suffered in the earnings slowdown has been mass-market beer makers.

Beer companies, like Anheuser-Busch, MillerCoors, Constellation Brands and Pabst Brewing, have recently made significant cuts to their respective workforces, in response to slowing sales.

Brewbound is reporting that Heineken USA (HUSA) is the latest mass-market beer maker to announce significant layoffs.

HUSA spokesman Bjorn Trowery said in a statement that 15% of its entire workforce will be eliminated amid restructuring efforts.

“Today, we announced that we are modifying our sales team structure to align with our strategy and to enable more efficient ways of working,” he wrote.

This will help Heineken USA be more cost effective, and allow us to reinvest behind our brands and business in the U.S. While change that impacts our people is always difficult, we believe these changes will better position Heineken USA for the future.”

Some indicate that big brewers are losing drinkers because millennials are switching to craft beers.

However, that might not be the case, as well-known craft beer companies, including Heineken International-owned Lagunitas, Deschutes Brewery, and New Belgium Brewing, have all recently cut a significant amount of their respective workforce, citing lowered growth ahead.

Industry-wide layoffs are a result of declining beer sales in the US. Though off-premise sales at retailers jumped 2% in 2018, according to research firm IRI, however, shipments of beer made domestically dropped 2%.

According to the latest earnings report, HUSA, the US operating company for Heineken International that imports, warned that its brands, as well as Dos Equis and Tecate, among others, could experience weak sales in 2019.

So did the American beer bubble just go flat?

end

18 big numbers showing that the USA economy is starting to fall apart

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

18 Really Big Numbers That Show That The U.S. Economy Is Starting To Fall Apart Very Rapidly

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Virtually every piece of hard economic data is telling us that the U.S. economy is slowing down dramatically. 

Many of the pundits have been warning that we could officially enter recession territory later this year or next year, but these numbers seem to indicate that it could happen a whole lot sooner than that.  But the stock market has been surging over the last two months, and at this point stocks are off to their best start to a year since 1987, and as long as stock prices are rising a lot of people are simply not going to pay much attention to the economic alarm bells that are ringing.  But everyone should be paying attention, because things are really starting to get bad out there.

The following are 18 really big numbers that show that the U.S. economy is starting to fall apart very rapidly…

#1 Farm loan delinquencies just hit the highest level that we have seen in 9 years.

#2 We just learned that U.S. exports declined by 4 billion dollars during the month of December.

#3 J.C. Penney just announced that they will be closing another 24 stores.

#4 Victoria’s Secret has just announced plans to close 53 stores.

#5 On Thursday, Gap announced that it will be closing 230 stores over the next two years.

#6 Payless ShoeSource has declared bankruptcy and is closing all 2,100 stores.

#7 Tesla is also closing all of their physical sales locations and will now only sell vehicles online.

#8 PepsiCo has started laying off workers and has committed to “millions of dollars in severance pay”.

#9 The Baltic Dry Index has dropped to the lowest level in more than two years.

#10 This is the worst slump for core U.S. factory orders in three years.

#11 We just witnessed the largest decline in the Philly Fed Business Index in more than 7 years.

#12 In January, sales of existing homes fell 8.9 percent from a year earlier.  That was the third month in a row that we have seen a decline of at least 8 percent.  This is an absolutely catastrophic trend for the real estate industry.

#13 U.S. housing starts were down 11.2 percent in December compared to the previous month.

#14 Compared to a year earlier, home sales in southern California were down 17 percent in January.

#15 In December, home sales in Sacramento County fell a whopping 22.5 percentcompared to a year earlier.

#16 Pending home sales in the United States have now fallen on a year over year basis for 13 months in a row.

#17 More than 166 billion dollars in student loan debt is now “seriously delinquent”.  That is an all-time record.

#18 More than 7 million Americans are behind on their auto loan payments.  That is also a new all-time record, and it is far higher than anything that we witnessed during the last recession.

It appears that “the recovery” has finally come to an end.  After seeing all of those numbers, there is no way that anyone can possibly claim that economic conditions are “getting better”.

And even though the official government numbers are highly manipulated, we never even had one “boom year” throughout the entire “recovery”.

The final numbers for 2018 are now in, and last year was the 13th year in a rowwhen U.S. GDP growth was below 3 percent.

The last time we had a “boom year” when economic growth was above 3 percent was all the way back in 2005.  That was in the middle of the Bush administration.

We have never seen a bad streak like this before in modern American history.  The following comes from CNS News

But prior to the current 13-year period when real GDP has failed to grow by 3.0 percent in any year, there has been no stretch (in the years since 1930) when the United States went as long as five straight years with real GDP failing to grow by at least 3 percent.

Even though the Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system over the last decade, and even though we added nearly 12 trillion dollars to the national debt, the best that the authorities have been able to do is to stabilize the system for a while.  Now it is starting to sputter once again, and many believe that the next crisis will be far worse than the last one.

By contrast, the Great Depression of the 1930s featured some really bad years, but following those bad years the U.S. experienced a tremendous economic boom

By contrast, after the stock market crash in 1929, the United States saw four years of negative annual GDP—1930 (-8.5), 1931 (-6.4), 1932 (-12.9) and 1933 (-1.2). But then in the nine full years from 1934 through 1942, real GDP grew by an average of 9.75 percent.

We should have had some boom years too, but we didn’t, and now things are going to get bad again.

The Democrats are going to blame the Republicans and the Republicans are going to blame the Democrats, but all of that arguing isn’t going to solve anything.

What is coming next has been a central focus of my work for a very long time.  The last recession was very painful, but it did not fundamentally alter life in America.

This next crisis will.

The “Everything Bubble” is bursting, the “Perfect Storm” is coming, and all of our lives will never be the same again.

But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t hope.  In fact, once things really start getting crazy hope is going to be one of the major themes in my work because people are really going to need it.

There will be great challenges, and life will be very different, but that doesn’t mean that life is over.

America is about to experience the consequences of decades of exceedingly foolish decisions, and the pain will be extreme.  But difficult times also offer an opportunity for dramatic change, and that is something that we will need to embrace.

SWAMP STORIES

Trump comments that Congress must demand the transcript of Michael Cohen’s new book to show his lies

(courtesy zerohedge)

To Expose Cohen Lies, Trump Says “Congress Must Demand Transcript Of Michael’s New Book”

Trump was probably too preoccupied on Wednesday to comment on Michael Cohen’s seven-hour marathon testimony before the House Oversight Committee, but now that he’s back on US soil, the president isn’t holding back.

Taking aim at Michael Cohen’s insistence that he had a change of heart regarding his relationship with the president after Charlottesville and Helsinki, as well as the former Trump lawyer’s decision to break attorney client privilege and turn over financial documents detailing some of Trump’s dealings with Deutsche Bank (which Maxine Waters once described as“the biggest money laundering bank in the world”), Trump slammed his longtime employee for his “fraudulent and dishonest” testimony.

Trump

Contrary to Cohen’s claims that he had lost all respect for the president since Trump became “the worst version of himself” after taking office, Trump claimed that Cohen had circulated a “love letter to Trump” book manuscript to publishers not all that long ago – in fact, the manuscript was submitted, Trump said, after Charlottesville and Helsinki.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Wow, just revealed that Michael Cohen wrote a “love letter to Trump” manuscript for a new book that he was pushing. Written and submitted long after Charlottesville and Helsinki, his phony reasons for going rogue. Book is exact opposite of his fake testimony, which now is a lie!

Trump added that Congress must “demand the transcript of…Cohen’s new book” because “Your heads will spin when you see the lies, misrepresentations and contradictions against his Thursday testimony.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Congress must demand the transcript of Michael Cohen’s new book, given to publishers a short time ago. Your heads will spin when you see the lies, misrepresentations and contradictions against his Thursday testimony. Like a different person! He is totally discredited!

Of course, Cohen’s focus on Trump’s alleged financial improprieties – he alleged that Trump would inflate or deflate the value of his assets depending on whether he was seeking inclusion on Forbes’ wealthiest list, or paying taxes, or applying for a loan – serves a very specific purpose. Now that the Russian collusion narrative has decidedly fizzled (even Cohen said he had no concrete evidence of collusion), Cohen’s testimony is part of a broader Democratic effort to shift public scrutiny toward Trump’s finances (a push that has already been wholeheartedly embraced by Waters, Adam Schiff and their respective committees).

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Oh’ I see! Now that the 2 year Russian Collusion case has fallen apart, there was no Collusion except bye Crooked Hillary and the Democrats, they say, “gee, I have an idea, let’s look at Trump’s finances and every deal he has ever done. Let’s follow discredited Michael Cohen…..

Trump signed off by demanding an end to the “corrupt and illegally brought Witch Hunt” and declared that “Republicans have been abused long enough”.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…and the fraudulent and dishonest statements he made on Wednesday. No way, it’s time to stop this corrupt and illegally brought Witch Hunt. Time to start looking at the other side where real crimes were committed. Republicans have been abused long enough. Must end now!

Of course, Trump isn’t the first – nor will he be the last – person to point out inconsistencies and flaws in Cohen’s testimony. Two Congressional Republicans, including Oversight Committee Ranking Member Jim Jordan and Mark Meadows, have already referred Cohen’s testimony to the DOJ.

Rep. Jim Jordan

@Jim_Jordan

In yesterday’s hearing, Michael Cohen made at least six false statements.@RepMarkMeadows and I have referred Mr. Cohen to the Justice Department for perjury.

Looks like he lied to Congress. Again.https://republicans-oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2019-02-28-JDJ-MM-to-Barr-re-Cohen-DOJ-Referral.pdf 

 

end
AOC gets her story all mixed up with respect to Michael Cohen’s testimony
(courtesy zerohedge)

Ocasio-Cortez Cites Debunked Michael Cohen Testimony In Don Jr. “Gotcha” Fail

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is catching major heat after she tweeted fake news about Donald Trump Jr. being the “second executive involved in criminal conspiracy,” a misstatement by Michael Cohen that the Wall Street Journal corrected shortly after it happened.

Ocasio-Cortez tweeted: “In Case You Missed It: Rep. Khanna got Cohen to testify that Don Jr. is the “second executive involved in criminal conspiracy.””

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

@AOC

ICYMI: Rep. Khanna got Cohen to testify that Don Jr. is the “second executive involved in criminal conspiracy.”

His line of questioning was a very big deal. (He also happens to be a progressive Rep that rejects corporate money!)

⬇️

Ro Khanna

@RoKhanna

We got some explosive admissions about the President, his son Donald Trump Jr., and Allen Weisselberg’s criminal conspiracy for financial fraud. https://twitter.com/politico/status/1100899710989156352 

Except as the Wall Street Journal reported hours after Cohen’s Wednesday testimony: “Cohen Erroneously Identifies Donald Trump Jr. as Executive Cited by Federal Prosecutors.

In the afternoon session, Mr. Cohen identified the president’s son, apparently incorrectly, as an unnamed Trump Organization executive referenced in the charging documents filed against him by federal prosecutors in New York.

The executives were referenced in connection with the plan to reimburse Mr. Cohen for the payment to Stormy Daniels. In the charging document, federal prosecutors said the first executive, Mr. Weisselberg, forwarded an invoice from Mr. Cohen to the second executive, and it was approved.

The Journal has previously identified “Executive-1” as Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg. Mr. Cohen testified today that “Executive-2” in the charging document was Donald Trump Jr.

However, according to people familiar with the matter, the second executive was Trump Organization controller Jeffrey McConney, not the president’s son. Mr. McConney previously referred requests for comment by the Journal to a Trump organization representative, who declined to comment. –WSJ

Arthur Schwartz

@ArthurSchwartz

Any other factually inaccurate testimony that you want to highlight? https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/cohen-hearing-2019/card/1551306276 

Cohen Erroneously Identifies Donald Trump Jr. As Executive Cited By Federal Prosecutors

Donald Trump Jr.’s name has come up a number of times at Michael Cohen’s hearing today. In the afternoon session, Mr. Cohen identified the president’s so

wsj.com

26 people are talking about this
View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸

@JackPosobiec

Huge mistake by @AOC social media staffer today posting accusations without evidence that were fully debunked 3 days ago

Andrew Surabian

@Surabees

Except shockingly, you’re lying. Cohen’s claims about Don Jr. here were 100% inaccurate as the Wall Street Journal correctly reported. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/cohen-hearing-2019/card/1551306276 

Cohen Erroneously Identifies Donald Trump Jr. As Executive Cited By Federal Prosecutors

Donald Trump Jr.’s name has come up a number of times at Michael Cohen’s hearing today. In the afternoon session, Mr. Cohen identified the president’s so

wsj.com

It appears AOC owes Don Jr. an apology.

end

 

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

North Koreans embarrass Trump with press conference while he’s on his way home as foreign minister insists Trump demanded too much for nuke deal and ‘our proposal will never change’

  • Trump and Kim Jong-un abruptly ended their summit in Hanoi early without signing a deal
  • He said the issue was Kim’s insistence that all sanctions get lifted in return for only giving up some nukes
  • Trump continued to tout his ‘warm’ relationship with Kim, but added ‘you have to be willing to walk away’
  • Secretary of State Mike Pompeo added that progress had been made ‘but we didn’t get all the way’
  • Kim’s state news agency KCNA said on Thursday: ‘Sincere and in-depth views were exchanged to bring about a comprehensive and groundbreaking outcome’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6757367/North-Koreans-insist-Trump-demanded-nuke-deal-proposal-never-change.html

WaPo: North Korea’s foreign minister says country seeks only partial sanctions relief, contradicting Trump

@AP:  Asked if he’s willing to denuclearize, North Korea’s Kim says, ‘If I’m not willing to do that, I won’t be here right now.’

     President Trump says opening US liaison office in North Korea is ‘a good idea,’ as Kim Jong Un calls it ‘welcomable.’

@WSJ: “Speed is not that important to me.” Trump started a second day of talks with Kim Jong Un by playing down the need for a breakthrough on North Korea’s nuclear program.

In other foreign news, Canada’s opposition leader called for the immediate resignation of Justin Trudeau following allegations of corruption.

Trudeau’s Ex-Attorney General: ‘Veiled Threats’ Were Made to Drop Case

In a campaign to get her to drop a criminal case against a major corporation… SNC-Lavalin, a Montreal-based engineering and construction company, was accused of paying millions of dollars in bribes to officials in Libya while the country was ruled by Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi…

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/27/world/canada/trudeau-wilson-raybould-snc-lavalin.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

WaPo: House Democrats explode in recriminations as liberals lash out at moderates – with liberal Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez threatening to put those voting with Republicans “on a list” for a primary challenge.  In a closed-door session, a frustrated Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) lashed out at about two dozen moderates and pressured them to get on board…    http://washingtonpost.com/powerpost/house-democrats-explode-in-recriminations-as-liberals-lash-out-at-moderates/2019/02/28/c3d163fe-3b87-11e9-a06c-3ec8ed509d15_story.html?tid=pm_pop

 

Let us conclude the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

Trump Walks On NK, Senate Baby Killers, Economic Update

By Greg Hunter On March 1, 2019

President Trump said he “walked away” from signing a deal on denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. He said he would rather have “no deal than a bad deal.” He did get a commitment from North Korea to not test nukes and not do any further missile testing. No timeline was given for new talks.

The Senate could not get the 60 votes needed to pass legislation to protect the life of a baby born during an abortion. 44 Democrat Senators voted against legislation that would require doctors to give same care to infants who survived abortion that any other baby would get. How are these Senators going to run on killing babies in 2020?

One big theme of the economy is debt and lots of it. Do you ever hear of any politician in the world talking about paying any of this massive debt back? Of course not, and that should scare the heck out of you.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and much more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

 

-END-

I WILL SEE YOU MONDAY NIGHT
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