MARCH 4/THE RAID ON GOLD/SILVER CONTINUES: GOLD DOWN $12.50 TO $1285.50//SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 14 CENTS TO $15.09//GOLD/SILVER EQUITY SHARES HOLD THEIR VALUES//GOLD COMEX IS STRESS AS WE WITNESS QUEUE JUMPING AND ANOTHER HUGE 44,944 OZ GLD GUARDIAN GLD//SILVER STRESS IS SEEN AT THE COMEX AS QUEUE JUMPING ADVANCES WITH HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER SOUGHT///BEIJING FIGHTS BACK ON THE HUAWEI MATTER//USA READY TO ENTER VENEZUELA IF GUAIDO IS HURT.AFTER HE ENTERS VENEZUELA///USA CONSTRUCTION SPENDING DOWN CONSIDERABLY//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

 

 

 

GOLD: $1285.50 DOWN $12.50 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.09 DOWN 14 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1286.60

 

silver: $15.08

 

GOLD/SILVER EQUITY SHARES HELD TODAY SO MAYBE WE HIT THE BOTTOM OF THIS CONTINUAL RAID CYCLE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

MARCH

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 52 NOTICE(S) FOR 5200 OZ (0.1617 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  244 NOTICES FOR 24400 OZ  (.7589 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

351 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,755,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4220 for 21,100,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3794:DOWN $95

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3769  D0WN 94

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today  0/52

first time in two months

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,296.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/01/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 03/05/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 36
690 C ABN AMRO 23 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 14 9
800 C MAREX SPEC 14 3
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 1
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 52 52
MONTH TO DATE: 244

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1641 CONTRACTS FROM 196,641 DOWN TO 195,000 WITH FRIDAY’S 38 CENTS LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE ALWAYS WITNESS A CONTRACTION IN TOTAL OI AS WE APPROACH FIRST DAY NOTICE AND IT SEEMS THE CULPRIT IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  4964 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 4964 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4964 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 14964 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 24.82 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 38 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

AND NOW: 24.535 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

6760 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 6760 CONTRACTS) OR 33.800 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 3380 CONTRACTS OR 16.90 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  33.800 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.820% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          398.66    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1690 WITH THE 38 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD  VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4964 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED: 3274 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 4964 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1641 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 38 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.23 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.975 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 351 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,755,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/AND NOW MARCH: 24.535 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,721 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 475,158 WITH THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A LOSS IN PRICE OF $16.90//FRIDAY’S TRADING). HOWEVER…….

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY  STRONG SIZED 11,397 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 11,397 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 475,158. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE  ONLY A TINY SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3324 CONTRACTS: 14,721 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 11,397 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF ONLY 3324 CONTRACTS OR 332,400 = 10.34 TONNES. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALTHOUGH WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE DROP IN OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX, MANY DID NOT LEAVE THE GOLD ARENA..THEY JUST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. ON FRIDAY WE HAD A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $16.90.

 

 

 

 

 

FRIDAY, WE HAD 11,192 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 22,589 CONTRACTS OR 2,258,900 OZ  OR 70.26 TONNES (2 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 11,295 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 70.26 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 70.26/2550 x 100% TONNES = 2.75% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     945.82  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 14,721 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($16.90) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11397 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,397 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 3824 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

11,397 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 14,721 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE SMALL LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 10.34 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS OF $16.90 IN FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

 

we had:  52 notice(s) filed upon for 5200 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $12.50 TODAY 

 

ON FRIDAY I REPORTED:

“HUGE  CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AS EXPECTED AS THIS GOLD WAS PROBABLY USED IN THE RAID THESE PAST FEW DAYS;

 

A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   784.22 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 784.22 tonnes.””

WELL THE CROOKS WERE AT IT AGAIN, AS THEY RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR BIG TIME AGAIN TODAY TO THE TUNE OF: 11.76 TONNES

THUS A WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY 772.46 TONES

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..///

A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308,503 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1641 CONTRACTS from 196,686 DOWN TO 195,000 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 4964 FOR MAY AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4964 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1641 CONTRACTS TO THE 4964 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE SURPRISINGLY OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN  OF 3323  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 16.61 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY AND NOW 24.535 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 38 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED 4964 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. THE LOSS IN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER WAS CAUSED BY THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS…IT HAD NO EFFECT ON PRICE..TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.57 POINTS OR 1.12% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 147.42 POINTS OR 0.51%  /The Nikkei closed UP 219.35 POINTS OR 1.02%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.46%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7018 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 56.09 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.50 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN//.

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7018 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7025: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

 

i) CHINA/

The battle over Huawei is getting fierce.  Now Huawei fights back and sues the uSA government in a Texas court over equipment ban

( zerohedge)

 

ib)Getting quite nasty:  Beijing threatens jailed Canadians with espionage charges in the latest retaliation for sending the Huawei case forward, i.e. the extradition of Meng

( zerohedge)

ii)The following is a very important article on how demographics are starting to eat into China’s economy.  As the debt rises, the population shrinks and thus greater debt per GDP. Also the shortage of labour is causing costs to rise further hurting their economy

 

( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)UK

A good look at the chaos in Great Britain

( Meijer/Alexander Aston)

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

The USA drops the banned white phosphorous on the last holdout of ISIS?
( zerohedge)

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Sweden

Rosengard, a notorious neighbourhood in Malmo Sweden mostly populated by Muslim migrants now have UPS drivers halting deliveries because of attacks on their trucks.

(zerohedge)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)VENEZUELA/

Guaido is set to re enter Venezuela today..if harmed the USA threatens actions.  Russia and China support Maduro…good reason for gold to be hit today.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Par for the course:  Australian central bank feeds legislators disinformation about gold/how it is stored/leased etc

( Ronan Manly/Bullionstar/gata)

ii)Barrick has now chance of taking over Newmont..they (Barrick) are a bunch of crooks

( Sanderson/London’s Financial times/GATA)
iii)In expensive stores, the 1000 Swiss Franc note is now getting a new look for big purchases.

( Bloomberg/GATA)

 

iv)Our good friend;  Hugo..Salinas Price

 

Hugo is stating the obvious: that governments are manipulating the gold market so much so that speculators are unlikely ever to make a profit form buying and selling paper gold.

(courtesy Hugo..)

v)Bill Murphy is exactly correct that fundamentals are meaningless in gold.

a good interview

(GATA/Goldseek/

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

Early trading as the Dow dumps because of poor construction numbers

(courtesy/ZEROHEDGE)

 

ii)Market data

USA construction spending tumbles to eight year lows as today’s drop was .6% month/over..pretty large..the USA economy is crumbling

( zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Trump again slams Powell and warns him not to raise rates on the 20th of March.

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)Bricks and mortar operations in the USA continue to suffer as in the past few days we have witnessed 465 store closures
( zerohedge)_
c)One-Fifth of all millennials say that their student loan debt prevents them from buying a home. These are the people that buy starter homes to get the ball rolling.  If they lack these guys entering, it will cause the entire home market into chaos

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

The idiot Nadler is now ready to hit over 60 people with document requests. His main contention is that Trump obstructed justice which he did not:

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,721 CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 475,158 WITH THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($16.90) IN FRIDAY’S RAID// COMEX TRADING).FOR THREE YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES., THE REASON FOR THE COLLAPSE IN OPEN INTEREST IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS. WE WITNESSED THE ABOVE PHENOMENA IN SILVER STARTING TODAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 11,397 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 11,397, FOR JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS AND FINALLY DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  11,397 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 3324 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,397 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,721 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ONLY::3324 contracts OR 332,400  OZ OR 10.34 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MARCH and here the open interest stands at 183 contracts  for a loss of 57 contracts.We had 66 notices served upon yesterday so we GAINED 9 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 900 oz will  stand at the comex as these guys REFUSED TO  morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their effort. This is quite early for gold to see queue jumping (AND 2ND DAY INA ROW) and a total increase in gold tonnage standing in this non active month of March.

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after  March is the  active delivery month is April and here the OI FELL by 20,643 contracts down to 312,568 contracts. The non active month of May picked up 1 contract for a total of 14 open interest.  After May, the next active delivery month is June and here the OI stands at 93,334 having gained 5961 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 52 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 5200 OZ. (0.1617 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1641 CONTRACTS FROM 196,641 DOWN TO 195,000(AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 38 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//FRIDAY 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 1124, HAVING LOST 311 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD 530 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 211 CONTRACTS OR 1,055,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER FOR OVER 3 YEARS IN THAT THE TOTAL OZ STANDING INCREASES FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE STANDING. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE THE SAME PHENOMENA IN GOLD. AS I MENTIONED ABOVE BOTH THE GOLD AND SILVER COMEX ARE IN STRESS.!!

 

 

 

 

AFTER MARCH, WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.  HERE: APRIL RISES TO 772 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 1 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 1732 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 145,179 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED A STRONG 3323 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1641 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 4964 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3323 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS LOSS OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 38 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// FRIDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 351 notice(s) filed for 1,755,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  264,768  CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  383,052  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Initial standings for  MAR/GOLD

MAR 4 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
44,944.828
oz
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
52 notice(s)
 5200 OZ
(0.1617 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
131 contracts
(13,100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
244 notices
24,400 OZ
.7589 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) out of HSBC: 44,944.828 oz

 

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer; 44,944.828  oz

we had 0  adjustments…

FOR THE MAR 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (244) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (183 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (52 x 100 oz per contract) equals 37,500 OZ OR 1.164 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of MARCH

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (244 x 100 oz)  + {183)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (52 x 100 oz )which equals 37,600 oz standing OR 1.1664 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH.

We gained 9 contracts or an additional 900 oz queue jumped as the bankers jumped ahead of investors looking for badly needed gold.

THE GOLD COMEX (AND SILVER COMEX) ARE NOW IN STRESS AS THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO FIND PHYSICAL METAL.

SURPRISINGLY NO GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 11.388 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  366,127.915 oz or  11.388 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,117,544.082 oz 252.48 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON

MARCH 2018 VS MARCH 2019 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

ON FEB 27.2018 WE HAD 995 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING (2 DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE)  VS FEB 26.2019:  539 CONTRACTS.(2 DAYS BEFORE FDN)

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 1/2018: TOTAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 2.1524 TONNES

THE FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE: MARCH 31/2018:  1.6114 TONNES AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 29 MONTHS 103 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH

MAR INITIAL standings/SILVER

MAR 4 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
306,581.780oz
Delaware
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,201,354.420
oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
351
CONTRACT(S)
1,755,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
773 contracts
3,865,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4220 contracts

(21,100,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.32% of all official comex silver. (147 million/298 million)

 

i) Into CNT:  1,201,354.420 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 1,201,354.420   oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

ii) out of    Delaware: 6952.500 oz

iii) Out of bRINKS: 299,629.280 OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 306,581.780     oz

 

we had 1 adjustment

I) Out of CNT:

589,082.100 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

seems that the dealer is in great need of silver.

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  94.043 million

total dealer + customer silver:  298.993 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MARCH 2019. contract month is represented by 351 contract(s) FOR  1,755,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4220 x 5,000 oz = 21,100,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (1124) and the number of notices served upon today (351 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 4220(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR( 1124) -number of notices served upon today (351)x 5000 oz equals 24,965,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained a considerable 211 contracts or an additional 1,055,000 oz will stand as bankers queue jumped in order to receive badly needed physical metal. The silver comex is in deep stress as this is the second day in a row of a huge gain in silver oz standing.

 

 

 

 

 

ON MARCH 1.2018 WE HAD 24.670 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STAND FOR DELIVERY. BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE DELIVERY MONTH, 27.190 MILLION OZ STOOD AS QUEUE JUMPING IN THE SILVER COMEX ARENA HAD BEEN THE NORM FOR QUITE A WHILE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  88,425 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 109,442 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 109,442 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 547 million OZ  78.14% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.71% (MAR 4/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.91% to NAV (MAR 4/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.71%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.03/TRADING 12.58/DISCOUNT 3.42

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD ANOTHER $12.50 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33 TONNES

FEB 26  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

 

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.99 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/ A SURPRISE GAIN (DEPOSIT) OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.50 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

FEB 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: WE HAD ANOTHER PAPER RAID (WITHDRAWAL) OF 2.04 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES/

FEB 13:/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER RAID BY OUR CROOKED BANKERS AS THEY WITHDREW ANOTHER 2.23 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.89 TONNES

FEB 12: WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO WHACK OUR PRECIOUS METAL TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.00/THE CROOKS WITHDREW ANOTHER HUGE 6.59 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.29 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP 35 CENTS/ANOTHER PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 811.82 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 813.29 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i)A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.37 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM THE GLD AND THEN ii) a A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.40 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

J

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAR 4/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 772.46 tonnes

*IN LAST 552 TRADING DAYS: 161.59 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 452 TRADING DAYS: A NET 1.64 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS//A  SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 610,000 OZ//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ/

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT; NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/RESTS AT 309.984

FEB 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ/

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS: SURPRISINGLY A DEPOSIT OF 1.688 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: A DEPOSIT OF 423,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ

FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 306.935 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT TH SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999  MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000  OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ.

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 129,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY  RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

 

MAR 4/2019:

 

Inventory 308.503 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.17/ and libor 6 month duration 2.68

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .51

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.47%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.88

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.41

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

Gold Still o

 

GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
Barrick has now chance of taking over Newmont..they (Barrick) are a bunch of crooks
(courtesy Sanderson/London’s Financial times/GATA)

Barrick chief Bristow rules out higher offer for Newmont

 Section: 

By Henny Sanderson
Financial Times, London
Friday, March 1, 2019

Barrick Gold’s boss Mark Bristow has ruled out increasing his offer for arch-rival Newmont Mining.

Mr. Bristow told the Financial Times that the $18 billion nil-premium, all-stock offer for Newmont was “logical” and would combine multiple world-class gold mines into one company.

Asked if Barrick would increase its offer for Newmont, Mr. Bristow said no.

… 

What’s better than five world-class assets? Eight,” Mr. Bristow said. “We can demonstrate that it’s so logical. …” Synergies “are about whether you put two things together is better or worse. And it’s far better.”

Mr. Bristow has to convince a small group of investors who have shareholdings in both companies that the deal makes more sense than Newmont’s planned $10 billion acquisition of Vancouver-based Goldcorp, which was announced in January. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/2cc619d6-3c23-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

Par for the course:  Australian central bank feeds legislators disinformation about gold/how it is stored/leased etc

(courtesy Ronan Manly/Bullionstar/gata)

Ronan Manly: Australian central bank feeds legislators disinformation about gold

 Section: 

9:43p ET Friday, March 1, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold analyst Ronan Manly tonight details how this week’s exchange between Australian legislators and central bankers about the country’s gold reserves was almost completely disinformation, inaccurate and misleading, never really getting to the point about what really has been done with the country’s gold.

Manly’s painstaking analysis is headlined “RBA Bosses Squirm as Aussie Politicians Throw Easy Questions about RBA Gold in London” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/rba-bosses-squirm-as-aussi…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Our good friend;  Hugo..

 

Hugo is stating the obvious: that governments are manipulating the gold market so much so that speculators are unlikely ever to make a profit form buying and selling paper gold.

(courtesy Hugo..)

 

Hugo Salinas Price: The gold gambling casino

 Section: 

11a ET Saturday, March 2, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, writes this week that governments manipulate the gold market so much that speculators are unlikely ever to make a profit from buying and selling assets that constitute only “paper” gold.

The only promising way of coming out ahead with gold, Salinas Price writes, is to buy and hold metal for the long term.

His analysis is headlined “The Gold Gambling Casino” and it’s posted at the association’s internet site here:

http://plata.com.mx/enUS/More/371?idioma=2

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Zero hedge also discusses this in detail as Trump states that the dollar is too strong

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Trump says dollar too strong, swipes at Fed for rate hikes

 Section: 

By Alyza Sebenius
Bloomberg News
Saturday, March 2, 2019

President Donald Trump said today that the U.S. dollar is too strong, and took a swipe at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as someone who “likes raising interest rates.”

The U.S. economy is doing well in spite of the actions of the central bank, Trump said during a wide-ranging speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference in National Harbor, Maryland.

“I want a strong dollar but I want a dollar that does great for our country, not a dollar that’s so strong that it makes it prohibitive for us to do business with other nations and take their business,” Trump said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-02/trump-says-dollar-too.

end

In expensive stores, the 1000 Swiss Franc note is now getting a new look for big purchases.

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Switzerland’s controversial thousand-franc note is getting a new look

 Section: 

By Catherine Bosley
Bloomberg News
Sunday, March 3, 2019

At jeweller Les Millionnaires, tucked away in the historic old town of Zurich, being handed a 1,000-franc bill ($1,002) to settle a purchase is no unusual event.

“It’s quite frequent that we’ve got someone who comes in looking for a present and who pays in cash because they don’t want their partner to find out,” said one of the proprietors of the shop, which sells earrings, necklaces, and bracelets made of gold with precious stones. “It’s the surprise effect.”

True to Switzerland’s penchant for discretion — one reason cash has remained popular in the generally tech-savvy country even as its use is dwindling elsewhere — she declines to give her name. “Here in our shop, we do get thousand-franc notes when it’s a very big purchase.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-03/switzerland-s-controv…

end

Bill Murphy is exactly correct that fundamentals are meaningless in gold.

a good interview

(GATA/Goldseek/)

Fundamentals are meaningless in gold, GATA chairman tells GoldSeek Radio

 Section: 

12:40p ET Sunday, March 4, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed by GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy says supply-and-demand fundamentals mean nothing in the gold market compared to the machinations of the gold cartel, but the gold price will fly when the cartel exhausts the metal it needs for price suppression.

Murphy adds that the seeming short supply of palladium may be foreshadowing what will happen in gold and silver.

The interview is 10 minutes long and begins at the 28-minute mark here:

http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/2019/03.01.2019/GSR-03.01.19-c.mp3

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end



iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

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Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

-END-

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7018/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7025   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 33.57 POINTS OR 1.12% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 147.42 POINTS OR 0.51%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 219.35 POINTS OR 1.02%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.68/Euro FALLS TO 1.1331

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.86/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.09 and Brent: 65.50

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP  /OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.17%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.77% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.20%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.64: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.67

3k Gold at $1288.80.40 silver at:15.19   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 15/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.77

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.86 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0012 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1350 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.17%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.74% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.11%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3853

 

Groundhog Day As Markets Rise On “Trade Talk Optimism”; Dollar Jumps Despite Trump Threat

It’s groundhog day again as global markets and US equity futures are once again higher on the same regurgitated “news”, this time  courtesy of the WSJ, that the US and China are “In the final stages of completing a trade deal.” If Phil Connors had the distinct displeasure of covering geopolitics for the past 3 months, his report today would be that presidents Trump and Xi Jinping “might” seal a formal trade deal around March 27, as the two countries appear close to a deal that would roll back U.S. tariffs on at least $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. The proposed trade deal would require Beijing to follow through on pledges ranging from better protecting intellectual-property rights to buying a significant amount of American products, including 50 million liters of Jack Daniels whiskey.

And Phil would be suicidal to see the same old market reaction as global stocks rose on the news, with European markets following their Asian counterparts higher. Asia’s MSCI ex Japan index was up 0.2%, Europe’s STOXX 600 index was up 0.4%, while the E-Mini was 0.3% higher…

… however much of the early burst higher faded with Eminis losing half of the initial euphoria …

… as even the algos appear to be growing bored with the now daily ruse, and the key outstanding question is whether all of the upcoming “trade deal” has now been priced in.

Actually, according to Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, there was another question: “The key question is – will all tariffs will be removed instantly, or will they be gradually dialled back?” wrote “While the renewed risk appetite is seen boosting European and U.S. stocks, investors should consider how much upside is left, given that markets have been actively pricing in the possible resolution to the trade saga.”

Questions or not, the news was enough to reverse any lingering doubts about ongoing trade talk progress and MSCI’s All Country World Index was up 0.1% on the day, as the S&P500 is rapidly approaching its all time highs again.

In Asia, Chinese shares were the biggest gainers, with the blue-chip index up as much as 3 percent, before however losing much of the overnight gains. The CSI300 index rallied last week after index provider MSCI quadrupled its weighting for mainland shares in its global benchmarks.

Elsewhere, Australian shares rose 0.4 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index added 0.7 percent. That left MSCI’s index of Asia-Pac shares ex Japan higher 0.2% on the day, and up almost 10% so far this year. Japan’s Nikkei strengthened more than 1 percent.

In Europe, gains in miners and media companies led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to five-month high.

One possible reason for the fizzling euphoria is that the dollar jumped higher overnight even after U.S. President Donald Trump warned against it becoming too strong.

Despite the market’s enthusiasm, not everyone was fooled: “while we have all these great headlines about what could be achieved under a U.S.-China trade agreement, we’re still a little way away,” said Kerry Craig, JP Morgan’s global market strategist. “There could be a chance for a disappointment. It could be phased in over a number of years. There’s still questions about how and what China will actually buy to try and reduce their deficit.”

Sure, but for now, as for the past 10 consecutive weeks of upside, the algos are buying first and aksing questions later, if at all.

Meanwhile, in addition to the daily trade talk, the market will keep focused on several other key developments as well: China’s annual National People’s Congress may yield policy clues when it kicks off on Tuesday and investors will get the latest read on the U.S. economy with the monthly jobs report on Friday.

“While it will take time for economic data to stabilise from the current slowdown, policy shifts by central banks and governments, especially in the U.S. and China, should help support investor confidence for now,” said Tai Hui, Asia-Pacific chief market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

In FX, the dollar recovered from an earlier slump that was fueled by President Donald Trump’s renewed criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and complaint about the greenback’s strength. The dollar reached a session high in early London trading while Treasury yields were little changed after reversing an earlier climb; the euro reversed gains on cross selling versus the yen and the pound. Earlier, turozone Sentix investor confidence rose to -2.2 in March, vs -3.1 estimate and -3.7 in February.

The pound led gains among major currencies after the Sunday Times reported that Pro- Brexit hardliners in May’s Conservative party have outlined conditions for supporting her plan; the sterling trimmed gains after construction PMI fell to 49.5 vs 50.6 in January and estimated 50.5. Meanwhile, the Aussie and kiwi retreated from early highs; poor economic Australian data over company profits and inventories sparked concern over growth data due later in the week; both currencies earlier advanced on hopes of a potential U.S.-China trade deal.

Greece’s benchmark 10-year government bond yields dropped to their lowest since 2006 on Monday after Moody’s raised its rating late last week, bolstering investor optimism towards the euro zone’s most indebted country. Moody’s on Friday lifted Greece’s issuer ratings to B1 from B3, citing the effectiveness of the country’s reform programme.

Looking ahead, March is expected to be a crucial month for global markets. Britain’s parliament will vote on an agreement to leave the European Union, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting that could yield clues on its plans for interest rates and balance sheet reduction, and the European Central Bank will hold its scheduled policy meeting this week.

Elsewhere, oil prices gained on Monday with Brent (+0.7%) and WTI (+0.9%) benefitting from the positive trade sentiment following reports that US and China are in the final stages of completing a trade deal, alongside China’s spokesperson Zhang stating that substantial progress has been made. Adding to the upside is Friday’s Baker Hughes rig count where US oil rigs fell by 10 to 843, the lowest level since May 2018. Elsewhere, Russian oil output was 11.34mln BPD in February, 75k barrels below the October baseline level; according to Energy Ministry Data. Separately, Barclays have maintained their Brent price forecast, stating that prices have moved in-line with their view however Barclays does note that downside risks remain.

Gold (-0.4%) prices are weaker weighed on by the positive risk sentiment, with the yellow metal trading towards the bottom of a USD 10/oz range. Elsewhere, Vale have, on a temporary basis, removed its Chief Executive Schvartsman, along side 3 other executives following recommendations by both state and federal prosecutors. Elsewhere, nickel futures, which is used to make stainless steel, have climbed to around a 5-month peak, as the price of stainless steel continues to rise with Chinese steel mills actively replenishing their stocks in-spite of the rising prices; although some mills have been delaying purchases due to the price increase.

It’s a quiet day otherwise, with only construction spending data due, while Salesforce.com is scheduled to report earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,814.00
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 159.69
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 525.32
  • Nikkei up 1% to 21,822.04
  • Topix up 0.7% to 1,627.59
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 28,959.59
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 3,027.58
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 36,063.81
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,217.41
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,190.66
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 375.83
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at 0.183%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1345
  • Brent Futures up 1% to $65.70/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 2.375%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 1.208%
  • Brent Futures up 1% to $65.70/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,287.03
  • U.S. Dollar Index unchanged at 96.53

Top Overnight News

  • The U.S. and China are close to a trade deal that could lift most or all U.S. tariffs as long as Beijing follows through on pledges ranging from better protecting intellectual-property rights to buying a significant amount of American products, two people familiar with the talks said
  • Substantial progress was made in the U.S. trade talks, China National People’s Congress spokesman Zhang Yesui says before legislative meetings
  • Prime Minister May received a boost over the weekend as she prepares to return her Brexit deal to Parliament. Pro-Brexit hardliners in her Conservative Party outlined conditions for supporting her plan, the Sunday Times said. Theresa May is promising a 1.6b pound boost for poorer areas of the U.K. as she steps up efforts to get her Brexit deal over the line. The Stronger Towns Fund was immediately attacked as an attempt by the prime minister to “buy” the support of opposition politicians
  • China’s political leaders gather this week to detail policy priorities for the year, with deliberations under added pressure from the trade standoff with the U.S. and a domestic economic slowdown.
  • Hedge funds increased wagers on rising Brent crude prices for an eighth week, the longest streak since 2012, according to ICE Futures Europe data
  • The House Judiciary Committee plans to issue document requests to more than 60 people on Monday as investigations begin into obstruction of justice, corruption and abuse of power related to President Trump, Chairman Jerrold Nadler said
  • China is planning to cut the value-added tax rate that covers the manufacturing sector by 3 percentage points as part of measures to support the slowing economy, a person familiar with the matter said
  • President Donald Trump’s attempts to blame Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for any hiccups in the U.S. economy have made a comeback — this time directed at his conservative base as he gears up for a tough 2020 re-election campaign
  • House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler said he’s aggressively investigating whether there’s evidence of wrongdoing by President Donald Trump, thrusting the veteran New York City lawmaker into center of a politically risky probe
  • The Swiss National Bank racked up a 14.9 billion- franc ($14.9 billion) loss for 2018 as the global stock market rout eroded the value of its foreign-currency holdings

Asian equities were higher across the board amid trade-optimism after WSJ noted that a US-Sino trade deal is reportedly being finalised and may be signed during a Trump-Xi Summit at the end of March. On Friday, US equities rose amid the overall risk appetite wherein the S&P closed above the 2800 level for the first time since November last year. The Dow closed above 26000 as Nike and Chevron led the gains, whilst Nasdaq advanced due to outperformance in heavyweight Amazon. ASX 200 (+0.4%) was led by the outperformance in the IT sector alongside a strong performance in material names, whilst Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) was lifted by its heavy China-exposed machinery sector and a marginally weaker domestic currency. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) was the marked outperformer and breached the key 3000 level to the upside with all sectors firmly in the green ahead of the China National People’s Congress coupled with reports of optimistic trade developments. Meanwhile, Hang Seng (+0.5%) posted modest gains but initially failed to piggy-back on the same momentum as its mainland peers as the heavy-weight financial and energy names weighed on the index. Huawei are said to be preparing to sue the US government for banning federal agencies from using their products. Prior to this, Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou has sued the Canadian government, police and border officials, claiming her legal rights were violated. Elsewhere, the UK could cap the use of Huawei equipment following the UK government’s review of the company; according to FT citing sources

Top Asian News

  • South Korea, U.S. Decide to End Biggest Joint Military Exercises
  • China, Malaysia Sign $891 Million of Palm Oil Purchase Deals
  • China Copper Premium Falls to 22-Month Low as Stockpiles Expand

Major European indices are off best levels [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%], continuing from a strong overnight session where Shanghai Comp breached 3000 to the upside. Although, there is some slight underperformance in the DAX (U/C) which is weighed on by Fresenius Medical Care (-2.3%) after US President Trump’s administration have stated they are looking at value based pricing to promote home dialysis and kidney transplants, designed to spur innovation and decrease in-clinic dialysis; with the market currently dominated by the Co. and US Company DaVita, who are down by around 2% in the pre-market. Sectors are similarly in positive territory; however, the healthcare sector is largely unchanged with sentiment capped by the aforementioned performance of Fresenius Medical Care, along with Novarits (-2.5%) who in spite of their positive update regarding psoriasis are in the red as they are trading ex-dividends today. Other notable movers include, British American Tobacco (+0.5%) who opened down by just under 2% following a class action lawsuit against the Co’s Canadian unit. Elsewhere, Casino (-1.6%) are in the red after being downgraded at Societe Generale. Towards the top of the Stoxx 600 are Daily Mail (+4.9%) after the Co. stated they are offloading their GBP 900mln stake in Euromoney, with funds to be returned to shareholders. Separately, Julius Baer (+0.9%) are up after the Co. increased their stake in NSC Asesores by 30% to 70% for an undisclosed amount.

Top European News

  • Ted Baker CEO Kelvin Resigns After Misconduct Allegations
  • VW Straddles Old and New With Electric Buggy, Passat Face-off
  • Bill Gross Sees ‘Much Less’ Alpha in Era of QE and Quant Trading
  • U.K. Construction Contracts as Brexit Delays Building Projects

In FX, The Dollar is somewhat mixed vs its major counterparts, but the DXY recovered from another US President Trump set-back to revisit 96.600 and marginally eclipse tech resistance (96.594 Fib) on the way. However, latest encouraging reports on US-China trade, suggesting a deal is in the offing have hampered the Greenback to an extent, especially vs more risk-sensitive and high beta currency peers.

  • GBP – The Pound has shrugged off an unexpected fall in UK construction PMI through the 50 growth/contraction threshold, and instead remains supported at the top of the G10 table on the more positive Brexit-related news in the form of growing support for PM May’s Withdrawal Agreement among the more ardent Tory leaver ranks, albeit with set conditions. Indeed, Cable remains close to 1.3250 and Eur/Gbp has retreated from highs around 0.8600, though the latter partly due to relative weakness in the single currency. Note, however, a hefty 1 bn option expiry at the 0.8500 strike looks too distant to come into play today as the cross hovers near 0.8560.
  • EUR – As noted above, an underperformer amidst broadly risk-on trade at the start of the new week, with stops noted vs the Usd on a break of 1.1350 once last Friday’s low was breached taking the headline pair down to 1.1335. Similarly, sell orders are said to have been triggered in Eur/Jpy, possibly through 127.00 and in Eur/Gbp, but the single currency has pared some lost ground in wake of a more upbeat than forecast Sentix index.
  • CHF/JPY – A bit of divergence between the traditional safe-havens, as the Franc remains below parity vs the Greenback on the aforementioned positive US-China paper talk, but the Jpy rebounds from worst levels circa 112.00, perhaps with the aid of those Eur cross sales, to sit just off 111.73 highs.
  • NZD/AUD/CAD – The Antipodean Dollars are off best levels achieved overnight when the WSJ trade deal between Beijing and Washington near to completion report broke, but still underpinned as the Kiwi keeps its head above 0.6800 and Aussie hovers just below 0.7100. However, Aud/Nzd has slipped back towards 1.0400 in wake of some disappointing pre-RBA data in the form of Gross Company Profits and the Loonie is still underperforming circa 1.3300 lows following last Friday’s sub-consensus Canadian GDP release in the run up to the BoC.
  • EM – The Lira and Peso are under pressure vs the Buck on bearish specific/independent impulses, as softer than expected Turkish CPI could prompt the CBRT to tweak its tight monetary stance on Wednesday, or even shift guidance in preparation for an ease ahead, while the Mxn is clearly feeling the adverse effects of S&P’s move to credit watch negative from stable. Note, Usd/Try is currently around 5.3850 vs almost 5.4000 at one stage and Usd/Mxn circa 19.3500 vs 19.3820 earlier, while in stark contrast the Thai Central Bank has been forced to curb excess Thb strength with a 31.75-85 range.

Brent (+0.7%) and WTI (+0.9%) are benefitting from the positive trade sentiment following reports that US and China are in the final stages of completing a trade deal, alongside China’s spokesperson Zhang stating that substantial progress has been made. Adding to the upside is Friday’s Baker Hughes rig count where US oil rigs fell by 10 to 843, the lowest level since May 2018. Elsewhere, Russian oil output was 11.34mln BPD in February, 75k barrels below the October baseline level; according to Energy Ministry Data. Separately, Barclays have maintained their Brent price forecast, stating that prices have moved in-line with their view however Barclays does note that downside risks remain. Gold (-0.4%) prices are weaker weighed on by the positive risk sentiment, with the yellow metal trading towards the bottom of a USD 10/oz range. Elsewhere, Vale have, on a temporary basis, removed its Chief Executive Schvartsman, along side 3 other executives following recommendations by both state and federal prosecutors. Elsewhere, nickel futures, which is used to make stainless steel, have climbed to around a 5-month peak, as the price of stainless steel continues to rise with Chinese steel mills actively replenishing their stocks in-spite of the rising prices; although some mills have been delaying purchases due to the price increase.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Monday. I’m so dazed I hardly know what day of the week it is. I’ve had the most virulent strain of man-flu imaginable and spent a lot of the weekend in bed drained and with a hacking cough. I wasn’t very popular at home as you can imagine. Bronte the dog has been so worried that every time I go to sleep somewhere she curls up next to me. It’s fair to say that my wife hasn’t replicated this.

If I live to see it, the highlight this week is likely to be the ECB meeting on Thursday. We’ll also see the start of China’s NPC (Tuesday – 15th March) and the latest employment report in the US (Friday). The final PMI revisions (Tuesday) are also likely to be closely watched and you never know when you’re going to get the next US/China trade headline.

Speaking of which, overnight the WSJ broke a story highlighting that the US and China are close to a trade deal that could lift most or all US tariffs as long as China follows through on its pledges ranging from better protecting intellectual-property rights to buying a significant amount of US products (increasing by $1.2tn over 6 years). Specifically, its being reported that China would buy $18bn in natural gas from Houston-based Cheniere Energy Inc. Elsewhere, the WSJ reported that the likely summit between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could happen around 27th March. The WSJ report added that China is offering to lower tariffs on US farm, chemical, auto and other products while pledging to speed up the timetable for removing foreign-ownership limitations on auto ventures, and to reduce tariffs on imported vehicles to below the current rate of 15%. China’s National People’s Congress spokesman Zhang Yesui also said that substantial progress has been made in trade talks before the start of legislative meetings. Meanwhile, after extending the deadline last week of a planned tariff increase on March 1, Trump has tweeted that “I have asked China to immediately remove all Tariffs on our agricultural products (including beef, pork, etc.) based on the fact that we are moving along nicely with Trade discussions….”

Sentiment has improved overnight on the positive trade headlines with China’s bourses leading the advance – the Shanghai Comp (+3.05%), CSI (+3.47%) and Shenzhen Comp (+3.95%) are all up. The Nikkei (+1.09%), Hang Seng (+1.22%), and Kospi (+0.09%) are also up. In the meantime, China’s onshore yuan is up +0.24%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are +0.45% and in commodities, US futures on corn and soybeans are up +0.74% and +0.63%, respectively.

Also over the weekend, (per Bloomberg) Mr Trump commented on the Fed again saying that there is “a gentleman that likes raising interest rates in the Fed, we have a gentleman that loves quantitative tightening in the Fed, we have a gentleman that likes a very strong dollar in the Fed.” In response the dollar is (-0.11%) slightly weaker overnight and 10yr Treasuries are up +1.0bps. Sterling is also up +0.25% on incrementally more positive Brexit noises. See later for more details.

Now going back to the highlights of the week ahead. While no change in policy from the ECB is expected, we will get updated staff forecasts (which are likely to show downgraded growth forecasts) and perhaps further hints about TLTRO2. Recent ECB commentary and the accounts of the January ECB meeting clearly signal that addressing TLTRO2 maturity is on the agenda, although its not clear that a decision will come as soon as Thursday’s meeting. Nevertheless, it’s likely to be a topic of discussion. Our economists believe that at the very least, it is appropriate for the ECB to implement a TLTRO2 solution that allows net exposures to be rolled over. This would help the ECB to preserve its monetary policy stance and prevent a temporary economic slowdown from propagating through unnecessary deleveraging, especially in the periphery.

Also of significance for markets is China’s National People’s Congress which officially gets underway on Tuesday and runs through until March 15th. Premier Li will present the government’s draft working plan on Tuesday and the details of the government’s draft budget will come out on Wednesday. Throughout the 10 days we’re also expecting the PBoC and ministries to hold press conferences which may send important policy messages. Our China economists expect the Chinese government to keep the policy stance flexible at this stage without committing to aggressive loosening measures. On growth, our colleagues expect the government to lower the GDP growth target for 2019 to “above 6%” or “between 6% and 6.5%”, which would represent a downward revision from “around 6.5%”. They expect the official fiscal deficit target to be around 2.8% to 3.0% of GDP, up from 2.6% in 2018, and also for the government to announce a total of RMB 1.2-1.5tn of tax cuts. On monetary policy, the team expect the government to reiterate the “prudent” monetary policy stance and no change in policy stance to the property sector.

Meanwhile, the big data highlight next week comes on Friday when we get the February employment report in the US. The consensus is for another solid round of data. Expectations for payrolls is 185k which as a reminder follows a much stronger than expected 304k print in January. Earnings are expected to have risen +0.3% mom which if true, would likely push the annual rate up one-tenth to +3.3% yoy and so matching the highs from the end of last year. The unemployment rate is expected to fall a tenth to 3.9% and hours hold at 34.5 hours.

Away from that, other data worth flagging in the US includes the final February PMIs and ISM non-manufacturing (+0.5pts to 57.2 expected) on Tuesday, the February ADP report on Wednesday, claims on Thursday and housing starts and building permits on Friday. In Europe, the highlight is the final February PMIs on Tuesday. We’ve already had the flash readings and as a reminder that the services and composite readings for the Euro Area were 52.3 and 51.4 respectively. Expect the main focus to be with Italy and France though where both services readings are hovering below 50. Other than that, we’ll also get the final Q4 GDP reading for the Euro Area on Thursday prior to the ECB meeting. No change from the +0.2% qoq/+1.2% preliminary readings are expected. Finally in Asia we’ve got the February PMIs in Japan and China on Tuesday, and China trade data on Friday. The rest of the day by day week ahead is at the end.

Recapping last week now. On Friday, attention was dominated by trade negotiations and communications from central banks. Equities rallied with the S&P 500, DOW, and NASDAQ ending the week +0.62%, +0.57%, and +0.74% (+0.64%, +0.70%, and +0.91% on Friday), respectively. In Europe, the STOXX 600 gained +0.62% (+0.22% Friday), with the DAX outperforming, up +1.40% (+0.30% Friday). Commodities rallied as well, with Brent crude oil advancing +1.15% (-0.09% Friday) and copper posting its best week since last September to reach its highest level since last June, gaining +5.40% (+1.81% Friday). Basically markets exposed to China did well as the Shanghai Comp. climbed +6.77% on the week and 1.80% on Friday. The offshore yuan appreciated +0.91% on the week (+0.21% Friday) to reach its strongest level since last July.

One of the most important moves last week were the rising yields. 10 year Treasuries, Bunds, Gilts rose 9bp, 7.4bp and 12.3bps respectively on the week but rallied off the yield highs on Friday on disappointing US data led by the manufacturing PMI declining 2.4 points to 54.2 vs 55.8 expected. The reason Gilts rose as much as they did is that the threat of a no-deal Brexit on March 29th seems to have been reduced to close to zero. The chances of Mrs May’s deal being passed before that seem to be increasing as the weekend press disclosed the terms that the ERG would require to support the deal. It does seem that their demands suggest a desire to compromise but all depends on how legally tight any agreement between the U.K. and EU over the temporary nature of the backstop can be. Expect numerous headlines on this this week.

Quickly recapping Friday’s central bank speak. Banque de France Governor Villeroy mentioned that the ECB should “study pragmatically how to contain possible adverse effects on the bank transmission of our monetary policy”. That mirrored earlier comments from the BoJ Governor Kuroda, who said that any future easing would come via tools that have the “least side-effects”. These could be references to some alleviation of the harm from negative interest rates. In the US, many Fed speakers spoke at a conference in New York, including Vice Chair Clarida who said that yield curve control, where 10-year yields are pegged, is one potential option to fight a future recession. The Fed will conduct a thorough review of its policy framework later this year.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.57 POINTS OR 1.12% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 147.42 POINTS OR 0.51%  /The Nikkei closed UP 219.35 POINTS OR 1.02%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.46%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7018 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 56.09 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.50 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN//.

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7018 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7025: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

i) CHINA/

The battle over Huawei is getting fierce.  Now Huawei fights back and sues the uSA government in a Texas court over equipment ban

(courtesy zerohedge)

Huawei Sues US Government In Texas Court Over Equipment Ban

According to the latest batch of market-positive trade-deal headlines, US negotiators are scrambling to hash out a deal with their counterparts in Beijing that would enable Trump and President Xi to save face, while averting the next round of US tariffs (and possibly removing existing tariffs) – even if this means squandering the leverage Trump has accrued by backing the Chinese economy into a corner.

But amid the rush to finish a deal by the end of the month, the battle of wills between Chinese telecoms giant Huawei and the US government rages on. And in what appears to be its latest salvo, Huawei is reportedly suing the US government over its ban on federal agencies purchasing Huawei products, which it argues is illegal under US law.

Huawei

According to the NYT, which was tipped off about the suit by two sources close to Huawei, the Chinese firm is planning to file in the Eastern District of Texas, where its American headquarters is based:

SHANGHAI – The Chinese electronics giant Huawei is preparing to sue the United States government for banning federal agencies from using the company’s products, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The lawsuit is due to be filed in the Eastern District of Texas, where Huawei has its American headquarters, according to the people, who requested anonymity to discuss confidential plans. The company plans to announce the suit later this week.

While the legal precedents are stacked against Huawei, reversing the ban probably isn’t the lawsuit’s ultimate goal; rather, according to the Times, the company is hoping to force the White House to “more publicly make its case against the Chinese equipment maker.” The suit is part of a multi-pronged approach by the company to defend its reputation from aspersions cast by the US.

The move could be aimed at forcing the United States government to more publicly make its case against the Chinese equipment maker. It is part of a broad push by Huawei to defend itself against a campaign led by the United States to undermine the company, which Washington sees as a security threat. Executives have spoken out strongly against America’s actions, and new marketing campaigns have been aimed at mending the company’s image among consumers.

For many years, United States officials have said that Huawei’s telecommunication equipment could be used by Beijing to spy and disrupt communication networks. The company has denied the allegations, but major wireless carriers such as AT&T and Verizon have effectively been prevented from using Huawei’s equipment as a result.

Mirroring a strategy employed by Russian security firm Kaspersky Labs after the federal government ordered agencies to uninstall Kaspersky’s software over fears it was being used to spy on the federal government, Huawei’s lawyers are expected to argue that a defense spending authorization law passed last year was tantamount to a “bill of attainder” – legislation that unfairly singles out a person or group.

The lawsuit that Huawei is preparing to file in the United States is expected to challenge a section of a defense spending authorization law that was approved last year. The provision blocks executive agencies from using telecom equipment made by Huawei and another Chinese company, ZTE.

According to one of the people familiar with the matter, Huawei’s lawsuit is likely to argue that the provision is a “bill of attainder,” or a legislative act that singles out a person or group for punishment without trial. The Constitution forbids Congress from passing such bills.

The United States Embassy in Beijing did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A call placed outside business hours to the United States Courthouse in Plano, Tex., where Huawei’s American headquarters are located, was not answered.

Huawei executives have argued that the US’s campaign to encourage its western allies to ban or put up barriers preventing Huawei technology from being used in the construction of their 5G wireless networks was motivated not by security concerns, like the US has maintained, but by commercial interests. The US wants 5G technology developed by Verizon and other US providers to form the backbone of 5G, not Huawei. However, the fact that many of the US’s allies have refused to go along with this has demonstrated that Huawei’s market leading technology is simply too valuable.

And as Huawei ramps up its legal efforts in the US (as criminal proceedings alleging IP theft have started in a Seattle courtroom), CFO Meng Wanzhou is suing the Canadian government and the officers who arrested her for violating the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, Reuters reports.

In a civil lawsuit filed in the British Columbia Supreme Court on Friday, Meng’s lawyers said the manner in which officers obtained evidence and information from Meng constituted serious violations of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Meng is the daughter of Huawei’s founder.

It added that Canadian Border Services Agency (CBSA) officers deliberately delayed the immediate execution of an arrest warrant and unlawfully subjected Meng to detention, search and interrogation to extract evidence from her before she was arrested.

[…]

The lawsuit further alleged that Meng was directed to surrender all her electronic devices, computers and passwords and that CBSA officers then unlawfully opened and viewed the contents of the seized devices in violation of her right to privacy.

CBSA officers also searched Meng’s luggage in violation of the right to privacy, the lawsuit said. “The CBSA Officers knew or were recklessly indifferent to the fact that they had no authority to conduct such a search, which search was performed under the false pretense of a routine customs or immigration related examination,”according to the lawsuit.

While any failure to secure a trade deal with China would certainly be embarrassing for Trump, a series of losses in Western courts to Huawei would not only be embarrassing, but seriously undermine the US’s efforts to muscle out Huawei and establish American firms as the dominant global force in 5G.

end

Getting quite nasty:  Beijing threatens jailed Canadians with espionage charges in the latest retaliation for sending the Huawei case forward, i.e. the extradition of Meng

(courtesy zerohedge)

Beijing Threatens Jailed Canadians With Espionage Charges In Latest Retaliation For Huawei CFO’s Arrest

Beijing has fired off its latest threatening message to Ottawa on Monday, just days after the Canadian Justice Ministry decided to allow extradition hearings for Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou to move forward.

With Meng set to make her first court appearance during the extradition proceedings later this week, two Chinese media reports published Monday claimed that jailed Canadian nationals Michael Kovrig – a former diplomat – and Michael Spavor – a businessman who arranged tours to North Korea – would face charges of spying on Beijing. Earlier, Chinese officials had said only that the two men faced charges related to threatening national security, which allowed Chinese authorities to immediately imprison the two men while an investigation was still underway.

Kovrig

The reports, which were summarized by the Financial Times, claimed that Spavor, who is being held in isolation in Liaoning, “provided intelligence to Kovrig and was an important intelligence contact of Kovrig.” One Chinese media personality said the reports suggest that Kovrig was the primary target in the crackdown, and that he was responsible for stealing state secrets.

Wei Du 杜唯@WeiDuCNA

Chinese state media reporting “major breakthrough” in case against Canadian @MichaelKovrig. Website linked to party law enforcement agency says Michael Spavor, the other Canadian in Chinese custody, was an informant to Kovrig.

Luna Lin@LunaLinCN

Stealing state secrets?

View image on Twitter
See Wei Du 杜唯’s other Tweets

Wei Du 杜唯@WeiDuCNA

Though Spavor’s work was mostly linked to North Korean, the report alleges that Kovrig stole state secrets, assumably Chinese ones. Also the way it’s written makes you think Kovrig is the main target here.

See Wei Du 杜唯’s other Tweets

While the charges haven’t been officially filed, the message to Ottawa is clear: Kovrig and Spavor could face the death penalty if found guilty, just like a third Canadian national who late last year saw his sentence for drug trafficking modified from a 15 year prison term to the death penalty.

Unlike Spavor and Kovrig, who have been kept in solitary confinement, denied books sent by friends and allowed only a single consular visit per month, Meng has been under house arrest in her sprawling Vancouver home.

Meng’s extradition must now be decided by Canadian courts, a process that could take months or even years. Meanwhile, her lawyers have sued Canada over alleged civil-rights violations from when she was detained in Vancouver on Dec. 1.

The following is a very important article on how demographics are starting to eat into China’s economy.  As the debt rises, the population shrinks and thus greater debt per GDP. Also the shortage of labour is causing costs to rise further hurting their economy

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

China’s Employed Population Shrinks For The First Time Ever

China’s imminent, and historic conversion from a current account surplus to deficit nation is not the only “tectonic shift” taking place in the world’s most populous nation. According to the latest census data from its National Bureau of Services, China’s employed population has shrunk for the first time ever on record, and at the end of 2018, the number of people employed fell to 776 million, a drop of 540,000 from 2017.

Meanwhile, in yet another sign that China’s population is aging rapidly, the broader working-age population, or people between the ages of 16 and 59, also shrank for the seventh consecutive year, down a total of 2.8% from 2011 to 2018 according to Caixing. Last year’s China’s total working-age population stood at 897 million, down 5 million from 902 million in 2017, according to the NBS.

Li Xiru, director of the Population and Employment Department at NBS, warned last month that the employed population would further drop in the coming years.

While China is already beset with a myriad of economic and asset price bubbles, most notably a massive corporate debt load and a still gargantuan shadow banking system both of which it has to balance against an unprecedented housing bubble to avoid a collapse in the financial system sparking a “working class insurrection“, the country’s shrinking work force creates even more headaches for officials as it pushes up labor costs, sparking inflationary pressures and placing more strains on an economy already struggling against external headwinds.

As China Daily reported recently, the shortage of workforce means labor cost will continue to increase and industrial transfer and technology will substitute workers. And since university graduates – who expect far higher wages – account for nearly half of the labor force entering the market, the market is unable to provide traditional industries with the required number of workforce and the past high-input economic development mode is unsustainable.

The futures is even bleaker: the working-age population is expected to see a sharp drop from 830 million in 2030 to 700 million in 2050 at a declining speed of 7.6 million every year, said Li Zhong, a spokesman for the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, in July. Meanwhile, with decreasing supply of labor force, the salary of all industries grew at a rate of 11.3 percent in 2011, 10.5 percent in 2012, and 9.7 percent in 2013, said Zeng, adding that as a result many foreign enterprises left China and shifted to Southeast China due to rising labor cost.

Adding to the warnings, back in 2015, the World bank cautioned that China’s working age population will fall more than 10% by 2040 in spite of a recent relaxation of its one child policy, heightening the risk of the world’s most populous country “getting old before getting rich”.

A further decline of 10% would equate to a net loss of 90 million Chinese workers, a number greater than the population of Germany, and is consistent with demographic pressures across East Asia. The working populations of South Korea, Thailand and Japan are also expected to fall by 10 per cent or more over the next 25 years.

“East Asia has undergone the most dramatic demographic transition we have ever seen,” said Axel van Trotsenburg, World Bank regional vice-president. “All developing countries in the region risk getting old before getting rich.”

As of 2010, almost 40% of all people on the planet aged 65 or older — some 211 million individuals — lived in East Asia, and the World Bank estimates that a least a dozen East Asian countries will see the percentage of their populations aged 65 or higher double to 14 per cent in a quarter century or less. In France and the US, the same transformation took 115 and 69 years respectively

“As [countries] get richer, fertility falls,” said Philip O’Keefe, lead author of the World Bank report. “Given China’s current fertility [rates], you may get a temporary uptick in people who wanted to have a second child having one, but we don’t see a big long-term impact there.”

O’Keefe cited surveys showing that only a quarter of Chinese people eligible to have a second child would in fact do so, however according to recent data, despite China’s relaxation of the infamous “one-child policy”, local birth rates have remained stagnant and in fact, in 2018 China’s birth rate dropped to a new record low.

Commenting on China’s demographic collapse, Wang Feng, a sociology professor at the University of California, Irving, said: “Decades of social and economic transformations have prepared an entirely new generation in China, for whom marriage and childbearing no longer have the importance they once did for their parents’ generation.”

The World Bank urged East Asian governments to embrace immigration as one tactic to counter falling population pressures, noting that more than 20% of Australians and New Zealanders — and 40% of Singaporeans — were immigrants, although Europeans may offer some counterpoints against opening up one territory to a flood of foreigners…

“Demography is a powerful force in development but it is not destiny,” Mr O’Keefe said. “Through their policy choices, governments can help societies adapt to rapid ageing.”

Of course, besides demographics, China’s transformation into the next Japan has major, and potentially dire, consequences for the local economy. As we reported back in October via Econimica, the 0-to-24 year old Chinese population swelled by over 300 million from 1950 to it’s ultimate peak in 1991.  Since that peak, the total population of young in China has fallen by 176 million, or a 30% decline in the number of children across China.  Moving forward, the UN has expressed hopes the formal elimination of the one child policy would simply slow the rate of decline in the population…but by no means will China’s fast declining childbearing population (those aged 15-44) nor disproportionately young male population potentially be offset by a slightly less negative birth rate.  Contrast that with the quantity of debt being forcibly injected into a nation that faces a massive imminent population decline.

To put that debt into perspective, the chart below shows that total debt and annual GDP each divided by the 0 to 24 year old Chinese population.  As of 2018, every child and young adult in China under the age of 25 is presently responsible for over $100 thousand dollars in debt while the annual economic activity (GDP) created by all this debt continues to lag ever faster.

And the coming decade only worsens as the young population continues its unabated fall and debt creation (absent concomitant economic growth) continues soaring… building more capacity all for a population that is set to collapse.

China’s predicament and reaction to it are not particularly unique…but given China’s size, the ultimate global impact of China’s slow motion train wreck will be unprecedented… particularly as their 15 to 64 year old population is now in indefinite decline.  Chart below shows annual change in Chinese 15 to 64 year old population, in both millions (green columns) and percentage (blue line).

Simply said, without a dramatic rebound in China’s birth rate, massive overcapacity (thanks to over a decade of government mandated malinvestment) versus an ever swifter declining base of consumption does not add up to a burgeoning middle class or a happy ending.

Of course, it’s not just China: for context, here is a chart showing US federal debt per capita of the 0 to 24 year old US population…

… confirming that the next generation, whether in China or the US, is set for a painful collision course with debt bubble dynamics

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

A good look at the chaos in Great Britain

(courtesy Meijer/Alexander Aston)

A View From The Brextanic

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

Longtime Automatic Earth friend Alexander Aston talks about finding himself at Oxford at a point in time when the British themselves appear overcome by a combo of utter confusion and deadly lethargy, and one can only imagine what it must be like for ‘foreigners’ residing in Albion, who face large potential changes to their lives and know there’s not a thing they can do about it, not even vote.

I like the observation that the entire British political system, the place where decisions are made, is the size of a small village. That’s a visual we can all relate to. It’s a physical limit as well as a mental one. I’m all for sovereignty and self-determination, but how’s that going to work if you can’t even see the boundaries of your own territory?

Guys, it’s 4 weeks to D-Day today. How about we call off the landing, get a few pints instead, and talk? First round’s on me.

Here’s Alexander:

Alexander Aston: I arrived in the UK in 2015 to undertake interdisciplinary research at the University of Oxford. I am a child of the Empire, a cultural product of Britannia’s oldest colonies in the British Isles, her most important colony now turned empire as well as one of her youngest, Zimbabwe. The UK is both an intimately familiar society and yet one that is also strangely alien for me, like a wealthy, often charming and deeply abusive parent that sparks both self-recognition and rejection.

The ‘leave’ referendum occurred close to a year after I arrived in the UK and is one of the few political events over the past few years that surprised me. I suppose that I assumed, given the power and wealth afforded to UK elites by the EU, that those who benefited so greatly from the status quo would do anything to manipulate or fudge the results. Nonetheless, history decided to swerve, and over the past four years, I have watched the inhabitants of this island stumble into an profound identity crisis. Having spent a good portion of my life in Greece, I do not have particularly warm and cuddly feelings toward the European Union and was never a natural ‘remainer’.

The single markets and the long peace are significant achievements, and the ability for Europeans to move freely and form new discourses, relationships and endeavours has value that is impossible to quantify. The EU is technocratic, unaccountable and enthralled to a neoliberal ideology that knows only how to extract wealth from the most vulnerable and concentrate it in the hands of the most powerful. I have lived in Athens, I have family in Greece, I have seen well enough the true costs of EU membership.

What strikes me most in my experiences of the United Kingdom are the incredible levels of cognitive dissonance demanded by its media, politics and economics in order for the society to function. I live in one of the most expensive and unequal cities in the entire country. I am surrounded by the grandeur of powerful and wealthy institutions that are older than the Aztec empire and filled with some of the most powerful and elite humans on the planet and their heirs in waiting. Every time that I enter a building, go to a lecture, meet with a colleague, or sit for some grand meal in one of the colleges I must walk past dozens of human beings that are cold, hungry and occasionally dying on the streets.

This is in a country that provides social housing and millions in basic income to a single family, where it is accepted that the most vulnerable people are relentlessly bullied into poverty through cuts, inspections and ever increasing demands of performance. In a country where the Beatles and J.K. Rowling all started their careers on the dole. I don’t know the answers to our predicaments, but the conversation is extremely lopsided and blind to the real misery it is creating. Every time I walk through Oxford, I am filled with a profound sense of guilt and remorse, I marvel and benefit from the treasures surrounding me and I wonder… is this the best we can do? Are these the limits of our social imagination and creativity?

Shortly after I arrived, Jeremy Corbyn was elected to the leadership of the labour party. It was an early prefiguration of the political disruptions that were about to sweep the world. The neoliberal managerialism of New Labour had lost control, and its partisans wage an increasingly desperate guerrilla war with no small amount of aid from the establishment media.

Long before Brexit was a reality I became aware of the repetitious delirium of innuendo, slander and fear-mongering through which the media managed the perspective and narrative in the country, much like the American system but with its own uniquely British aesthetics and sense of authority. This somnambulant fever has only grown as the country has tripped and stumbled through the unexpected circumstances and self-engineered traps of austerity, political deadlock, and delusions of grandeur.

Day in and day out we are subjected to a litany of failure by one of the most incompetent governments in history while the media clucks, puffs and turns a path of ruin into mere spectacle. Yet, day after day we find ourselves in a state of inertia, nothing seems to change as the country hurtles towards historical rupture. The dissonance created between a seizing political system, PR firms masquerading as journalists and a dysfunctional economy requires that the people of the United Kingdom smooth over, ignore or forget the increasing contradictions of their lived experience.

Anthropologically speaking, the nuance of British culture that has perhaps had the most profound impact upon me is the detail to which the English are able to infer region, class and schooling through the voices of their fellow citizens. The subtle encoding of social hierarchies into the dialects and accents of the United Kingdom to degrees that I have never experienced in the rest of the Anglophone world. Despite my ignorance about many intricacies of British linguistics, one thing I do feel relatively confident about is that even though the English have the vast majority of the wealth and power in the United Kingdom, the Celts have received the warmer sense of humour.

For me, one of the few truly positive possible outcomes of Brexit is the potential for Irish reunification and even the chance of an emerging “Celtic sphere” to provide a new counterbalance in the British Isles. The partition of Ireland stems from one of the deepest and oldest wounds inflicted by the British Empire. It is an ironic twist of fate that the Tories now find themselves dependent upon the Unionist partisans and descendants that they so eagerly fostered to maintain dominance over Ireland. The United Kingdom’s mythology of itself has run headlong into the contradictions at the heart of its empire. The country that is partitioning itself from Europe finds its politics paralysed by an older act of partition.

The contradictions of Brexit have riven the political parties and the governing process has ground to a halt. It is an intractable predicament, the interests of the Unionists, Capitalist Utopianists, Neoliberal reactionaries, Political Elites, Nationalists, Independents and Socialists are all pulling in different directions. Consensus is only achieved in moments of near universal rejection, yet with no ability to pass any meaningful legislation the Tories only coalesce in obstinate refusal to change the situation.

Meanwhile the ship of state drifts towards a political, economic and moral abyss. What I can say from my time at Oxford is that the political masters of this country are indoctrinated with an imperial hubris in a political system that operates like a small village. The institutions of power here produce all too many children with no experience of the daily struggles of common people, that are all together convinced as to their entitlement to rule over millions with a PPE degree in hand.

The country is in an intractable prisoners dilemma, the logic of which makes a no-deal outcome highly possible. My fear with a no deal is that this would result in a bond shock, and with economic disruptions in Ireland, the Benelux, a France mired in a political crisis and the financial precarity of Italy all create excellent conditions for an absolutely roaring debt calamity. Yet, the UK blithely dithers on as Theresa May puts on her best performance of Neville Chamberlain and tries, tries again. The fact is that the government has lost all political legitimacy and Parliament is an omnishambles.

Those that lead us are so committed to their own narratives, so convinced of their acumen and power, so insulated by their privilege that they will sacrifice the health and prosperity of this nation in the absolute conviction that they are right and that all their problems are the fault of stupid people that don’t listen and do what they are told. The folks in the ERG think they only need sit on their hands and they can, they will, find themselves in a libertarian Aristocracy sea steading off the shores of Europe.

The London centric remainers think that they can paper over the past four years with a second referendum and that all can go back to normal and Brexit can be safely tucked away as a terrifying aberration. I am reminded of the H.L. Mencken quote that “for every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.”

The only pathway I can see to restoring political legitimacy at this point is a general election. Only after an extension of article 50 and a new government has negotiated an alternative deal is it really feasible to begin speaking about holding further referendums that won’t cause great harm to democratic society. Citizen assemblies would need to be formed and plans for three referenda drawn up, a choice between Mays and the Alternative deal followed by a decision between the winning deal and a no-deal option which would culminate in a final choice between a popularly demanded type of Brexit and remaining within the European Union.

I, as the rest of us, have no idea where our current moment in history will lead. However, there are a few things that I feel confident are occurring. The long twentieth century that began in 1914 is at the end of its cycle. Whatever comes next will be something new, a difficult and demanding opportunity for profound creativity and the chance to step out of the long shadow of our past. In all ecosystems, diversity generates resilience. It is the reason and the strength of building consensus. Yet we cannot build consensus if we refuse, alienate and straw man the voices of others and refuse to examine and discuss the contradictory predicaments in which we find ourselves.

Those that lead us are blind, they are blind because they are true believers and they lack either the wit or compassion to imagine something different beyond more wealth extraction and violence. We have seen Neoliberalism’s Capitalist Utopia and it has failed. Only open and honest discourse coupled with pragmatic action will allow us to navigate to a new shore. I feel strongly about these things, that and that no matter what ones political persuasion, voting for the Tories should be beneath anyone’s dignity at this point.

To be awake from this collective dissonance we must approach our predicament with humility and honesty. Without a democratic commitment to an open and honest discussion, pragmatic decision making processes and a functioning political system capable of mitigating the worst damage, this country will become a mere serfdom ruled by Lilliputian lords.

“For we each of us deserve everything, every luxury that was ever piled in the tombs of the dead kings, and we each of us deserve nothing, not a mouthful of bread in hunger. Have we not eaten while another starved? Will you punish us for that? Will you reward us for the virtue of starving while others ate? No man earns punishment, no man earns reward. Free your mind of the idea of deserving, the idea of earning, and you will begin to be able to think.”

– Ursula K. Le Guin, The Dispossessed

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

The USA drops the banned white phosphorous on the last holdout of ISIS?
(courtesy zerohedge)

Watch: US Drops Banned White Phosphorous On ISIS In East Syria

According to Middle East news source Al Masdar Newsthe U.S. Coalition dropped internationally banned white phosphorous on the last tiny Islamic State enclave in eastern Syria during intense operations on Saturday evening.

American warplanes specifically dropped the white phosphorous on ISIS positions inside the Baghouz camp, which coalition statements have described as the last holdout to the “most hardened” militants, numbering in the hundreds, in Abu Kamal District of Deir Ezzor governate near the Iraqi border.

Screenshot of Saturday night’s alleged white phosphorus use by the coalition, via ‘Ayn Al-Firat news.  

Amidst intense fighting led on the ground by US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), civilians have continued to pour out of the town to escape the fighting. Sky News has put the number of people that have left the ISIS enclave over the past three months at about 40,000.

Al Masdar reports the video footage of the IUS white phosphorous attack on the Islamic State’s positions was originally captured by ‘Ayn Al-Firat (Eye of the Euphrates) news organization on Saturday:

Embedded video

SMM Syria@smmsyria

⚡️ 📹The -led jets hit ‘s Fawqani town with white phosphorus

A number of Middle East analysts also confirmed the controversial munitions’ use over the weekend.

Last year Russia accused the United States and its allies of repeatedly using white phosphorous in eastern Syria, which the Pentagon has denied. Use of the munition in civilian areas is banned under the 1949 Geneva Conventions and is considered by many countries a dangerous and brutal chemical weapon.

Joshua Landis

@joshua_landis

White Phosphorus use by the US in Baghouz, Syria. Is it a chemical weapon? Worth reading up on its use: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_phosphorus_munitions https://twitter.com/i/status/1101837277360209921 

In 2017 The Washington Post confirmed the United States had used it in densely populated areas in Iraq and Syria as part of counter-terror operations.

When deployed white phosphorus can cause skin to melt down to the bone, and further is able to stick to clothing and the body, continuing to burn unchecked as more particles are exposed to the air.

The chemical substance can by used in shells and grenades, similar to Napalm, and creates spontaneous explosive fire in a broad area.

Total ISIS defeat in Baghouz is considered imminent, with SDF-run make-shift front line prisons rapidly filling up with surviving and surrendering ISIS terrorists.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Nidalgazaui@Nidalgazaui

: Photos reportedly showing captured fighters from who were recently captured by or surrendered themselves

Meanwhile Syrian state-run SANA also made the accusation of US coalition use of the banned substance on Saturday. According to the report:

Local sources in Deir Ezzor said the warplanes of the coalition fired white phosphorus bombs at al-Baghouz farms area near the Syrian-Iraqi borders east of al-Bukamal city under the pretext of fighting Daesh, which puts the lives of hundreds of civilians and abductees detained by the terrorist organization at risk.

The sources said that the presence of SDF militias and US occupation forces in the area, which hinder the movement of civilians in neighboring areas, prevents verifying the number of victims among civilians due to the attack.

In past operations the US has seemed to operate with a “by any means possible” attitude when it comes to tactics like white phosphorus use in crowded areas occupied by ISIS.

Allies Russia, Iran, and Syria, however, have repeatedly called out the hypocrisy of the Pentagon deploying internationally banned chemical substances while accusing US enemies of doing the same thing.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Sweden

Rosengard, a notorious neighbourhood in Malmo Sweden mostly populated by Muslim migrants now have UPS drivers halting deliveries because of attacks on their trucks.

(zerohedge)

“Our Drivers Have Been Attacked”: UPS Halts Deliveries To Swedish “No Go Zone”

Though European leaders and their counterparts in the US (along with their allies in the mainstream press) have continued to deny their existence, migrant-dominated “no go” zones remain a persistent public safety threat to the Swedish public. And in the latest repudiation of the Swedish government’s refusal to accept the term, and acknowledge the fact that – as Swedish police chiefs warned back in 2017 – these areas represent “parallel societies” where Swedish institutions aren’t recognized, UPS has ceased delivery to Rosengard, a notorious neighborhood in Malmo, Sweden, after several of its drivers were assaulted and robbed.

According to local media reports cited by RT, delivering to the neighborhood has become too dangerous for UPS, after the US carrier told the press that “our drivers have been attacked and therefore we have decided not to hand out packages at [the district].”

Police

The decision to cease package delivery follows a spike in crime in the notoriously poverty-stricken neighborhood, where police say they cannot effectively carry out their law enforcement duties.

Rosengard, a troubled, immigrant-dominated neighborhood, has gained notoriety due to a spike in violent crime recorded in recent years. Gun violence, armed robberies, and other offenses seem to have become commonplace there, according to media reports. The district, plagued by unemployment and poverty, has previously appeared on a list of Sweden’s ‘vulnerable areas’, which some media and local politicians refer to as ‘no-go zones’.

Across Europe, the term “no go zone” is used to describe areas where even the police are afraid to go. UPS isn’t the first organization operating in Sweden to adopt an official company police to avoid ‘no go’ zones. That list also includes PostNord, the country’s government run postal service.

For some local service providers at least, the words ‘no-go zones’ are taken quite literally. In 2017, the Swedish ambulance union said first responders need military-grade protective gear to withstand the dangers of such areas. Later that year, the government-run postal service, PostNord, halted mail delivery to some addresses near the troubled Stockholm suburb of Rinkeby, where large-scale riots were taking place.

Back in 2017, a leaked police report identified 23 ‘no go’ zones across the country where police couldn’t effectively operate.

But in the US, the New York Times and its partners in the mainstream press refuse to acknowledge the existence of an immigrant driven spike in crime in parts of the liberal Nordic paradise. Why? Because it contradicts their pro-immigration agenda.

end

Finland, Scandinavia/Estonia, Sweden

wow!! this is going to be a biggy!!  Finland’s Nordea, may be involved in a huge money laundering operation for Russia

(courtesy zerohedge)_

Nordea Shares Sink On Report Tying It To Danske Money Laundering Scandal

As the international money laundering scandal that started with revelations about Danske Bank’s Estonian branch and has since spread to taint Swedbank and other Scandinavian and Baltic lenders spreads, a Finnish broadcaster on Monday was reportedly preparing to publish a report detailing Nordea’s role in laundering billions of euros flowing out of the former Soviet Union.

The news sent shares of Nordea reeling – it was down more than 6.5% at the lows – while shares of other Nordic banks fell in tandem. DNB ASA, Norway’s largest lender, declined as much as 4.6%, while SEB AB fell as much as 2.1%.

Nordea

Already, Swedbank AB, Sweden’s oldest lender and the dominant financial presence in the Baltics, has shed roughly one-fifth of its market value since Feb. 20, when a Swedish broadcaster published a report linking it to the Danske case. The bank had previously denied wrongdoing, and is now being investigated by authorities in Sweden and Estonia, according to Bloomberg.

Investors dumped the shares because they were essentially left in the dark about the allegations, and have been unsure when the next shoe will drop.

Nordea, for its part, said it hasn’t yet seen the program, but based on what it has been asked to comment on, it believes most of the allegations have already been made public.

“Investors are essentially left in the dark with regard to Nordic banks, waiting to see what and when new allegations will emerge on money laundering,” said Philip Richards, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence in London.

“The issue has now moved on from Danske Bank to engulf Swedbank and Nordea, but the entire sub-sector appears to be getting drawn in,” Richards said. “Until banks come clean and reveal the full extent of what suspicious transactions they have been involved in, this looks set to run and run.”

Nordea said it “is aware of the media story and has been in dialogue” with the Finnish broadcaster YLE and the Danish newspaper Berlingske, which are intending to publish the laundering report later on Monday.

“We have not yet seen the program or article. Based on what we have been invited to comment on, these are all issues that we have seen and commented on before and are therefore in line with previous statements made on AML issues,” Nordea spokeswoman Kati Tommiska said in an emailed statement.

Nordea, which moved its headquarters to Finland from Sweden for regulatory reasons last year, has already been fined by Swedish authorities for failing to uphold AML controls. And recently, investor Bill Browder brought a complaint against Nordea alleging the bank is tied to the Danske scandal.

But as the money laundering scandal spreads, criminals and other shady entities in the CIS might be the biggest losers here, as they struggle to find new venues for laundering their money into the western financial system.

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

Venezuela

Guaido is set to re enter Venezuela today..if harmed the USA threatens actions.  Russia and China support Maduro…good reason for gold to be hit today.

(courtesy zerohedge)

As Guaido Re-Enters Venezuela Monday, Bolton Threatens US Action If He’s Detained

US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido plans to re-enter Venezuela on Monday after previously meeting with Vice President Mike Pence and other regional leaders in Colombia last week, and after visiting with the president of Ecuador on Sunday. The Maduro government, including Venezuela’s Supreme Court, has said he could face up to 30 years in prison for violating a prior travel ban placed on him — something which the US has balked at, saying it would take action if Guaido were prosecuted or harmed

In a speech posted to social media on Sunday, Guaido referenced other notable opposition leaders currently imprisoned or under house arrest: Tomorrow we will return to our country, there is a risk on returning, many politicians like Leopoldo Lopez and union leaders are imprisoned but if the government seizes me, there are clear steps to take, mobilization is the first one”, he said according to Bloomberg. And attempting to stoke the momentum of anti-Maduro protests which seem to have faded in the country, he added, “we will take the streets” and that “I will announce next political steps tomorrow. This process in unstoppable. Political transition has already started.”

Over a week ago Guaido attempted to lead a humanitarian aid convoy across a bridge into Venezuela from neighboring Colombia.

Significantly, Guaido invoked  some 700 total armed forces widely reported to have defected over the past weeks, most believed to have taken refuge in Colombia, to suggest successful “mobilization” and significant momentum. “I announce my return to the country and call on marches across the country for Monday and Tuesday,” he said on Twitter late Saturday. He said that if arrested by Maduro, it “would be a coup d’etat“.

In reality his crossing back into Venezuela will put himself at the mercy of Maduro’s security forces, but on the same of day of Guaido’s comments, National Security Adviser John Bolton wrote on Twitter, Any threats or acts against his safe return will be met with a strong and significant response from the United States and the international community” — though it remains unclear just how far Washington would be willing to go should the self-declared “interim president” be seized. 

John Bolton

@AmbJohnBolton

Venezuelan Interim President Juan Guaido has announced his planned return to Venezuela. Any threats or acts against his safe return will be met with a strong and significant response from the United States and the international community.

Maduro told ABC News in an interview last Tuesday, “He [Guaido] can leave and come back and will have to see the face of justice because justice had prohibited him from him leaving the country… He has to respect the laws.” In a follow-up question concerning whether Maduro would have the opposition leaders arrested, the president said that only a court can make this decision.

Meanwhile deputy judge of the Venezuelan Supreme Tribunal of Justice, Juan Carlos Valdez told Russia’s Sputnik on the same day Maduro’s interview was published that Guaido “may face up to 30 years in jail” for violating the travel ban.

The deputy judge said according to the report:

He is a person hiding from justice. What is happening with runaways, who are reentering the country and found by the authorities? They must be caught and sent to a prison […] He may face up to 30 years in jail.”

The supreme court judge further said “the prosecution was currently analyzing the possible crimes committed by Guaido,” according to Sputnik. Guaido has recently indicated to regional media that he plans to return to Venezuela understanding full well he’s likely to be arrested.

Meanwhile on CNN Bolton defended his bellicose (and some might say very selective)  rhetoric against the Maduro government…

Embedded video

andrew kaczynski

@KFILE

Bolton asked about tweets calling Maduro a dictator who violates human rights:

CNN: Do you not see US support for other dictators around the world undermines the credibility of your argument.

Bolton: No, I don’t think it does. I think it’s separate.

This as Guaido has called on world powers to intervene in Venezuela to “liberate” the people from the Maduro regime. Toward this end he’s called on his international backers to impose harsher measures to pressure Maduro and after the aid convoy’s failure proposed that “all options be kept open.”

While U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has not ruled out military intervention to dislodge Maduro, it is seen as unlikely and his Latin American allies have encouraged a mix of sanctions and diplomacy instead.

Meanwhile, even as Maduro’s regime has kept the political backing from allies like Russia, China and Turkey, any future financial support from those countries remains a major question mark and will be key to Maduro’s staying power.

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1331 DOWN .0033 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.86  UP .055 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3185    DOWN   0.0009  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3319 UP .0023 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 35 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1414 Last night Shanghai composite closed UP 33.57 POINTS OR 1.12%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 147.42   POINTS OR 0.51% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .46%/EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED UP 219.35 POINTS OR 1.02% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 147.42 POINTS OR 0.51%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.57 POINTS OR 1.12% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .46%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 219.35 POINTS OR 1.02%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1287.00

silver:$15.15

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.74% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.11 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.68 UP 15 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.47% DOWN 2   in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.17% DOWN 3   IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.74 UP 1    POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 157 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS  TO +.16%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.58% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1331 DOWN   .0032 or 32 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.70 DOWN .103 OR YEN UP 10 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3185 DOWN.0011( POUND DOWN 11  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 39 basis points to 1.3329

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7070    0N SHORE  (UP)

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7092(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.3737

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 0 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.74 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.09 DOWN 2  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.66 UP 13 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP  27.66 OR 0.39%

German Dax : DOWN 9.02 POINTS OR .72%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 21.30 POINTS OR  0.41%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 7.90 POINTS OR  0.09%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 23.77 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.18 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 65.28 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.75  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.17 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 17 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO +.17 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.51

 

 

BRENT :  65.59

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.72. bond market..

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.10..

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1342 ( DOWN 22   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.70 DOWN .103 (YEN UP 10   BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.61 UP  8 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3176  DOWN 19 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3737

the Russian rouble 65.76   UP .16 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 16 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3307 DOWN 17 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7073  (ONSHORE)/CLOSED FOR THE WEEK

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7083  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.17%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 206.67 POINTS OR 0.79%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 17.79 POINTS OR 0.23%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.64 CLOSED DOWN 1.07 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.598%//LIBOR HEADING DOWN!!   

 

 

FROM 2.615

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Stocks Skid, Bonds Bid As “Sell The News” Strikes At Critical Resistance

“off the lows” … or “off the highs” – it appears sell-the-news was the order of the day as yet another headline proclaiming a US-China trade deal is close sparked overnight gains, but met a wall of selling at the cash open…

 

China was up once again overnight – with SHCOMP back above 3,000 – but the afternoon session was notable selling…

 

European markets opened gap higher but faded into the close with Span and Germany ended unch…

 

US Futures show the day’s actions best as stocks gapped open overnight after the WSJ trade headlines and then dumped at the cash open, not helped by construction spending and McConnell headlines…

Today was the worst day for the Dow since Jan 3rd before the panic bid lifted everything back…

Trannies are down 7 days in a row (longest losing streak since Nov 2017)

 

TICK showed the biggest selling pressure since Jan 28th hit around 1215ET, before stocks bounced on a series of buy programs…

 

S&P 2,800 confirmed the Quadruple Top…

 

The algos BTFD in a desperate attempt to get us back to 2800…

 

 

Nasdaq futures tested the 200DMA…

 

Tesla stocks hit a 5-mo low and caught down to bonds…

 

VIX topped 17 intraday, but compressed back as stocks bounced…

 

We note VIX broke above its 200DMA before pulling back…

 

Bonds and stocks decoupled as the latter rebounded…

 

Treasury yields fell on the day – after 3 big up days – with the long-end outperforming…

 

30Y yields fell around 4bps…

 

The Dollar refused to be impacted by the weakness in stocks and continued to trend higher in a tight range…so much for Trump’s weak dollar call…

 

However, overnight strength in the yuan on the WSJ trade headlines, were erased…

 

Cryptos had another ugly day…

 

Despite dollar gains, WTI managed to rally as PMs and copper slipped lower…

 

Gold extended its losses against the Yuan…

 

Coincidence?

What happens next?

END

MARKET TRADING

Early trading as the Dow dumps because of poor construction numbers

(courtesY/ZEROHEDGE)

“Sell The News” – Dow Dumps Into Red, Erasing China Trade Hope Hype

No real catalyst for the sudden drop in stocks – weak construction spending hit after the drop had begun – but the surge open in futures overnight has been erased since the cash open this morning

Nasdaq remains in the green as The Dow dips red…

“sell the news”?

ii)Market data/

USA construction spending tumbles to eight year lows as today’s drop was .6% month/over..pretty large..the USA economy is crumbling

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Construction Spending Growth Tumbles To 8 Year Lows

U.S. construction spending posted the smallest annual increase since 2011 as homebuilding slowed amid higher borrowing costs and a glut of apartments in some areas.

For December, spending declined 0.6% from the prior month, missing forecasts for a 0.1% gain.

Bloomberg notes that the full-year figure reflected a 3.3 percent increase in private residential construction that was the smallest advance since 2011. The category had posted gains of more than 10 percent for six straight years. Within the sector, single-family building was up 5.2 percent while multifamily housing rose 0.7 percent.

Other areas of weakness in construction spending for 2018 included private manufacturing, which fell 1.7 percent. On the positive side, state and local outlays jumped 7.1 percent, the most since 2007.

end

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Trump again slams Powell and warns him not to raise rates on the 20th of March.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Says Dollar Too Strong, Slams Powell Who “Likes Raising Interest Rates” 

President Trump on Saturday said that that US dollar is too strong, before knocking Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who “likes raising interest rates.”

Speaking from the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) for more than Two hours, Trump said: “I want a dollar that does great for our country, but not a dollar that’s so strong that it makes it prohibitive for us to do business with other nations and take their business.” Trump then knocked Powell – who he did not mention by name, instead referring to him as “a gentleman that likes raising interest rates in the Fed, we have a gentleman that loves quantitative tightening in the Fed, we have a gentlemen that likes a very strong dollar in the Fed.

“Can you imagine if we left interest rates where they were, if we didn’t do quantitative tightening,” said Trump, adding “There’s no inflation.”

Embedded video

Aaron Rupar

@atrupar

TRUMP: “We have a gentleman that likes raising interest rates in the Fed. We have a gentleman that loves quantitative tightening in the Fed. We have a gentleman that likes a strong dollar in the Fed.”

(The crowd doesn’t know how to react to this and sits silently.)

As Bloomberg reports, the Fed kept their target range for the federal fund rate steady at 2.25 to 2.5 percent. Economists and investors largely expect they will stay this course during their next gathering in Washington March 19-20.

Powell this week repeated the Fed’s recent mantra of being “patient” on future rate moves. Trump in late 2018 repeatedly castigated Powell and the central bank for the series of rate increases made from record low levels achieved during the severe recession a decade ago. –Bloomberg

Trump has traded barbs with the Fed, and has reportedly considered firing Powell several times.

In December, Trump tweeted “The only problem our economy has is the Fed,” adding “They don’t have a feel for the Market, they don’t understand necessary Trade Wars or Strong Dollars or even Democrat Shutdowns over Borders.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The only problem our economy has is the Fed. They don’t have a feel for the Market, they don’t understand necessary Trade Wars or Strong Dollars or even Democrat Shutdowns over Borders. The Fed is like a powerful golfer who can’t score because he has no touch – he can’t putt!

end
Bricks and mortar operations in the USA continue to suffer as in the past few days we have witnessed 465 store closures
(courtesy zerohedge_

Retail Apocalypse: 465 Store Closures In 48 Hours

Following government shutdown delays, data for Dec and Jan spending and income collapsed on Friday. This was one of the most significant drops in consumer spending since the financial crash.

As if the situation wasn’t already dire enough, US consumers dialed back their spending in the last several months has put a sizeable dent into sales growth and foot traffic at US malls.

Last month, we noted that the “Retail Apocalypse” Isn’t Over: It Is Only Just Getting Started”.

We were right.

Fox 5 NY is reporting that major chains such as Gap, JCPenney, Victoria’s Secret and Foot Locker have all announced massive closures, totaling more than 465 stores in the last 48 hours.

All four companies reported its fourth-quarter results last week for the holiday period, with three of them (Gap, JCPenney and Victoria’s Secret) reporting a sizeable decline in same-store sales, while Foot Locker had modest growth.

With somewhat decent growth, because apparently, consumers still need to walk, Foot Locker shocked investors Friday with 165 store closures across the country.

That comes less than 24 hours after Gap told investors it would close 230 over the next several years after the company’s same-store sales plunged 7% during the holiday quarter.

If the hemorrhaging wasn’t enough, JCPenney was back on the chopping block with 18 more department store closures through the second half of this year, including three from January.

Bob Phibbs, CEO of New York-based consultancy the Retail Doctor, believes JCPenney will announce another round of stores closures in the second half.

“It is mind boggling that JC Penney still thinks they have time when the clock has run out and there’s no real plan. Closing 18 stores is barely a drop in the bucket of JC Penney’s more than 850 stores. If this was a big, bold effort to reinvigorate the brand, they would have announced they were closing hundreds of stores and investing in an outstanding experience at their other locations,” Phibbs told FOX Business.

That builds on recent store closure announcements by Gymboree, Payless ShoeSource, Charlotte Russe and Ann Taylor, to name a few. Even Tesla last week announced it would be closing most of its US showrooms.

A whopping 4,500 store closures have been announced by retailers in the first several months of this year. The number is expected to increase in the coming months, as growth prospects for the US economy are expected to be at near zero for the first quarter.

end
One-Fifth of all millennials say that their student loan debt prevents them from buying a home. These are the people that buy starter homes to get the ball rolling.  If they lack these guys entering, it will cause the entire home market into chaos
(courtesy zerohedge)

One-Fifth Of Millennials Say Their Student Loan Debt May Prevent Them From Ever Buying A Home

As stocks roar back toward their all-time highs (ignoring repeated warnings about incipient weakness in US economic growth), it’s worth remembering that millions of underemployed and over-indebted Americans (mostly those between the ages of 23 and 35) have largely missed out on the post-crisis recovery.

And for these unfortunates, the missed opportunities for wealth creation extend beyond stocks (ownership rates for equities are mired at their lowest level in years) to the housing market, which is far more important for preserving household wealth. Though prices grew at their slowest annualized rate since 2014 in December, and sales have remained muted after a sustained slump, many real-estate brokers are trying to suss out the long-term implications of millennials’ financial constraints.

To that end, a “soft” survey of millennials commissioned by Bankrate.com offered the latest indication that the ballooning pile of student debt remains one of the biggest obstacles preventing more millennials from buying their own homes (that, and the fact that a supply shortage has squeezed prices to levels that are unaffordable for most working Americans). To wit, one-in-five millennials say their student debt burden is the only thing holding them back from buying a home.

But even those millennials who can buy homes often regret it both financially and in the more traditional sense of “buyer’s remorse”.

Here’s more from Bloomberg:

Almost two-thirds of millennial homeowners (ages 23-38) have buyers remorse over their home purchase. The most common regret among millennials is that they did not adequately anticipate unexpected maintenance costs.

“Repairs and maintenance costs are something all homeowners face.  Consumers should expect to set aside 1% of their home’s purchase price each year to keep in a savings account to cover these expenses,” said Bankrate analyst, Deborah Kearns.

Other complaints included homeowners taking on a larger mortgage payment than they can handle and buying a house that is too small, too big or in a bad area.

For those that don’t own a home, cost is the largest barrier to being a homeowner. About half of respondents said they don’t have enough income, while 41 percent cannot afford a down payment and the closing costs involved in the purchase. A third of respondents said that home prices are simply too high.

This is hardly surprising considering that, contrary to the narrative that earning a college degree is the key to wealth accumulation, most millennials with student debt have a negative net worth.

Millennials

And though home ownership rates among young people have finally started to creep higher, for fully half of millennials, home ownership simply won’t be possible without a gift or interest-free loan from friends and family.

Homes

It’s just one reason why support for “Democratic Socialists” like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is so high among the generation that now comprises the largest share of the American workforce.

SWAMP STORIES

The idiot Nadler is now ready to hit over 60 people with document requests. His main contention is that Trump obstructed justice which he did not:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Judiciary Chairman Nadler To Hit Over 60 People With Document Requests; Says Trump Obstructed

House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) said on Sunday that his committee will be issuing document requests beginning on Monday to “begin the investigations to present the case to the American people about obstruction of justice, corruption and abuse of power,” according to ABC News.

“Tomorrow, we will be issuing document requests to over 60 different people and individuals from the White House to the Department of Justice, Donald Trump, Jr., Allen Weisselberg, to begin the investigations to present the case to the American people about obstruction of justice, corruption and abuse of power,” Nadler said on ABC‘s “This Week.”

Embedded video

This Week

@ThisWeekABC

NEW: House judiciary chairman Jerry Nadler says “tomorrow we will be issuing document requests to over 60 different people and individuals from the White House, to the Dept. of Justice, Donald Trump Jr. … to begin investigations” https://abcn.ws/2VzxYfN

“Do you think the president obstructed justice?” asked ABC‘s George Stephanopoulos.

“Yes, I do,” replied Nadler.

Embedded video

This Week

@ThisWeekABC

BREAKING on @ThisWeekABC:

.@GStephanopoulos: “Do you think the president obstructed justice?”

House judiciary chairman Jerry Nadler: “Yes, I do. It’s very clear that the president obstructed justice” https://abcn.ws/2VzxYfN

 

 

Stephanopoulos also asked Nadler: “How about if Robert Mueller comes back and says definitively we find no collusion by Pres. Trump? Is that conclusion you’ll accept?

We’d want to see the evidence behind that,” replied Nadler. “This investigation goes far beyond collusion.

And if Mueller’s report finds no collusion, will the seemingly endless investigations into all things Trump be considered election interference if they bleed into 2020?

end

the list from above

‘Witch Hunt’ Intensifies: Full List Of 81 People Hit With House Judiciary Document Requests

The House Judiciary Committee fired off 81 document requests in their sweeping investigation of President Trump and his inner circle. According to Axios, the probe will focus on 3 broad areas of interest: allegations of obstruction of justice, public corruption and other abuses of power.

Letter recipients include; WikiLeaks, Julian Assange, the NRA, Michael Flynn and Flynn Jr., Michael Cohen, Steve Bannon, George Papadopoulos, the Trump sons, and Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg.

“It’s all a hoax,” said President Trump on Monday when asked if he would cooperate with the investigation led by Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY).

“I cooperate all the time with everybody. You know, the beautiful thing, no collusion,” said Trump – who has also referred to the ongoing investigations a “witch hunt.” 

On Sunday, Nadler told ABC News that he believes Trump obstructed justice.

“Do you think the president obstructed justice?” asked ABC‘s George Stephanopoulos.

Yes, I do,” replied Nadler.

Embedded video

This Week

@ThisWeekABC

BREAKING on @ThisWeekABC:

.@GStephanopoulos: “Do you think the president obstructed justice?”

House judiciary chairman Jerry Nadler: “Yes, I do. It’s very clear that the president obstructed justice” https://abcn.ws/2VzxYfN

The document requests sent to 81 individuals and entities tied to Trump and allegations of possible misconduct ask for recipients to respond by March 18, two weeks from now.

The full list (via Axios): 

  1. Alan Garten (letterdocument requests)
  2. Alexander Nix (letterdocument requests)
  3. Allen Weisselberg (letterdocument requests)
  4. American Media Inc (letterdocument requests)
  5. Anatoli Samochornov (letterdocument requests)
  6. Andrew Intrater (letterdocument requests)
  7. Annie Donaldson (letterdocument requests)
  8. Brad Parscale (letterdocument requests)
  9. Brittany Kaiser (letterdocument requests)
  10. Cambridge Analytica (letterdocument requests)
  11. Carter Page (letter, document requests)
  12. Columbus Nova (letterdocument requests)
  13. Concord Management and Consulting (letterdocument requests)
  14. Corey Lewandowski (letterdocument requests)
  15. David Pecker (letterdocument requests)
  16. Department of Justice (letterdocument requests)
  17. Don McGahn (letterdocument requests)
  18. Donald J Trump Revocable Trust (letterdocument requests
  19. Donald Trump Jr. (letterdocument requests)
  20. Dylan Howard (letterdocument requests)
  21. Eric Trump (letterdocument requests)
  22. Erik Prince (letterdocument requests)
  23. Federal Bureau of Investigation (letter, document requests)
  24. Felix Sater (letterdocument requests)
  25. Flynn Intel Group (letterdocument requests)
  26. General Services Administration (letterdocument requests)
  27. George Nader (letterdocument requests)
  28. George Papadopoulos (letterdocument requests)
  29. Hope Hicks (letterdocument requests)
  30. Irakly Kaveladze (letterdocument requests)
  31. Jared Kushner (letterdocument requests)
  32. Jason Maloni (letterdocument requests)
  33. Jay Sekulow (letterdocument requests)
  34. Jeff Sessions (letterdocument requests)
  35. Jerome Corsi (letterdocument requests)
  36. John Szobocsan (letterdocument requests)
  37. Julian Assange (letterdocument requests)
  38. Julian David Wheatland (letterdocument requests)
  39. Keith Davidson (letterdocument requests)
  40. KT McFarland (letterdocument requests)
  41. Mark Corallo (letterdocument requests)
  42. Matt Tait (letterdocument requests)
  43. Matthew Calamari (letterdocument requests)
  44. Michael Caputo (letterdocument requests)
  45. Michael Cohen (letterdocument requests)
  46. Michael Flynn (letterdocument requests)
  47. Michael Flynn Jr (letterdocument requests)
  48. Paul Erickson (letterdocument requests)
  49. Paul Manafort (letterdocument requests)
  50. Peter Smith (Estate) (letterdocument requests)
  51. Randy Credico (letterdocument requests)
  52. Reince Priebus (letterdocument requests)
  53. Rhona Graff (letterdocument requests)
  54. Rinat Akhmetshin (letterdocument requests)
  55. Rob Goldstone (letterdocument requests)
  56. Roger Stone (letter, document requests)
  57. Ronald Lieberman (letterdocument requests)
  58. Sam Nunberg (letterdocument requests)
  59. SCL Group Limited (letterdocument requests)
  60. Sean Spicer (letterdocument requests)
  61. Sheri Dillon (letterdocument requests)
  62. Stefan Passantino (letterdocument requests)
  63. Steve Bannon (letterdocument requests)
  64. Ted Malloch (letterdocument requests)
  65. The White House (letterdocument requests)
  66. Trump Campaign (letterdocument requests)
  67. Trump Foundation (letterdocument requests)
  68. Trump Organization (letterdocument requests)
  69. Trump Transition (letterdocument requests)
  70. Viktor Vekselberg (letterdocument requests)
  71. Wikileaks (letterdocument requests)
  72. 58th Presidential Inaugural Committee (letterdocument requests)
  73. Christopher Bancroft Burnham (letterdocument requests)
  74. Frontier Services Group (letterdocument requests)
  75. J.D. Gordon (letterdocument requests)
  76. Kushner Companies (letter, document requests)
  77. NRA (letterdocument requests)
  78. Rick Gates (letter, document requests)
  79. Tom Barrack (letterdocument requests)
  80. Tom Bossert (letterdocument requests)
  81. Tony Fabrizio (letterdocument request

 

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

U.S. Prepares Final China Trade Deal as Hawks Urge Caution

The U.S. is eyeing a summit between the two presidents as soon as mid-March…

     Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday the two nations are working on a 150-page document that would turn into a “very detailed agreement,” though he cautioned that “we still have more work to do.”… Robert Lighthizer told lawmakers that more work needs to be done and said the administration won’t accept a deal that doesn’t include significant “structural” changes to China’s state-driven economy. He also stressed the need for a enforcement mechanism, allowing the U.S. to take unilateral action if China breaks the rules…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-28/u-s-said-to-ready-final-china-trade-deal-as-hawks-urge-caution?srnd=premium

@realDonaldTrump: Great to be back from Vietnam, an amazing place. We had very substantive negotiations with Kim Jong Un – we know what they want and they know what we must have. Relationship very good, let’s see what happens!

Traders pushed ESHs and European stocks higher when Europe opened.  The above feel good story about US-China trade negotiations appeared after Asian markets closed but about 25 minutes before Europe opened.  The story is old news, another good cop (Mnuchin)/ bad cop (Lighthizer) propaganda piece.  It had little effect on ESHs when the story appeared.

U.S. House panel launches probe into possible obstruction by Trump

“Before you impeach somebody, you have to persuade the American public that it ought to happen,” he said.  As evidence of obstruction, Nadler cited Trump’s May 2017 firing of FBI Director James Comey…

http://news.trust.org/item/20190303144708-i4sem

@realDonaldTrump: For the Democrats to interview in open hearings a convicted liar & fraudster, at the same time as the very important Nuclear Summit with North Korea, is perhaps a new low in American politics and may have contributed to the “walk.” Never done when a president is overseas. Shame!

Facing a $250M Lawsuit, Washington Post Walks Back Its Covington Story

Basically, the Post is admitting it made an error. But I don’t see an apology, do you?…

    The issue is that the Post had a preconceived bias before the story was even written…

https://pjmedia.com/trending/the-washington-posts-clawback-on-its-covington-story/

Democracy dies in the lack of common decency.

Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide…” – John Adams [‘Tis why USA is a Constitutional Republic]

 

 

 

-END-

I WILL SEE YOU TUESDAY NIGHT
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