MARCH 6/GOLD UP $3.00 TO $1287.00//SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TO $15.08//ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AT THE SILVER COMEX (ANOTHER QUEUE JUMPING)//THE PRICE FOR SPOT 40 FOOT CONTAINERS DECLINE AS CHINA’ EXPORTS DECLINE//OUR GOOD FRIENDS OVER AT DEUTSCHE BANK HAS ANOTHER 700 MILLION DOLLAR LOSS IN TRADING//THE BANK OF CANADA GOVERNOR WARNS THAT CANADA MIGHT HAVE TO STOP RAISING INTEREST RATES IN THIS ECONOMIC CLIMATE//THE OECD LOWERS THE BOOM ON GLOBAL GROWTH AS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY SINKS FURTHER INTO AN ABYSS//USA TRADE DEFICIT SOARS TO 621 BILLION DOLLARS FOR THE YEAR AND 59 BILLION DOLLARS FOR DECEMBER: THE USA GOODS DEFICIT A TOUCH UNDER 900 BILLION DOLLARS..A RECORD!!//

 

 

 

GOLD: $1287.00 UP $3.30 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.08 DOWN 2 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1287.90

 

silver: $15.14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

MARCH

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 39 NOTICE(S) FOR 3900 OZ (0.1213 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  263 NOTICES FOR 26300 OZ  (.8180 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

372 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,860,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4700 for 23,500,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3858:UP $2

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3852  DOWN 3

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 22/39

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,282.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/05/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 03/07/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 22
686 C INTL FCSTONE 3
690 C ABN AMRO 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 12
800 C MAREX SPEC 2
905 C ADM 30
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 39 39
MONTH TO DATE: 302

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 36 CONTRACTS FROM 190,060 DOWN TO 190,024 WITH YESTERDAY’S 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE ALWAYS WITNESS A CONTRACTION IN TOTAL OI AS WE APPROACH FIRST DAY NOTICE AND IT SEEMS THE CULPRIT IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  2192 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2192 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2192 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2192 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 10.96 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

AND NOW: 25.325 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

12,798 CONTRACTS (FOR 4 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 12,798 CONTRACTS) OR 63.99 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 3199 CONTRACTS OR 15.99 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  63.99 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.14% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          428.884    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 36 WITH THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD   STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2192 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED: 2156 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2192 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 36 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.10 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.975 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 372 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,860,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/AND NOW MARCH: 25.325 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2976 CONTRACTS UP TO 471,311 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.70//YESTERDAY’S TRADING). HOWEVER…….

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY  STRONG SIZED 7293 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 7293 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 471,311. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE  A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8,269 CONTRACTS: 2976 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7,293 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 8269 CONTRACTS OR 826,900= 25.72 TONNES.

YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $1.70…. AND THUS WE HAD THIS SOLID GAIN IN OI DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE????

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 10,670 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 40,552 CONTRACTS OR 4,055,200 OZ  OR 126.13 TONNES (4 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,138 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 126.13 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 126.13/2550 x 100% TONNES = 4.94% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1001..68  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2976 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($1.70) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7293 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7293 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 8269 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7293 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2976 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 25.72 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS OF $1.70 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

 

we had:  39 notice(s) filed upon for 3900 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY 

 

NO ADDITIONS OR SUBTRACTIONS TODAY

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT  IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..///

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308,503 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 36 CONTRACTS from 196060 DOWN TO 190,024 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 2192 FOR MAY AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2192 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 36 CONTRACTS TO THE 2192 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE SURPRISINGLY OBTAIN ONLY A STRONG GAIN  OF 2156  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10.78 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY AND NOW 25.325 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH.

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2136 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. THE LOSS IN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER WAS CAUSED BY THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS…IT HAD NO EFFECT ON PRICE..TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 47.85 POINTS OR 1.57% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 76.00 POINTS OR 0.26%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 129.47 POINTS OR 0.60%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .72%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7085 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 56.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.78 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED 

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7085 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7176: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/

Not good:  North Korea already has re-started building its long range missile sites and these were revealed by satellite images

( zerohedge)

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

 

i) CHINA/

 

i)Spot rates for 40 foot containers being shipped from China to North America is showing a continual slowdown. Another evidence of a contraction in the global economy

( zerohedge)_

ii)China’s dilemma: dollars (Eurodollars) leaving her shore as it seems that the real enemy is deflation and not inflation

( Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)EU/ECB

The EU and the ECB activate a currency swap line as they brace for a “no deal Brexit”
( zerohedge)

ii)Are we heading for another QE?(courtesy RanSquawk)

iii)The rumours are true;  The ECB is poised to launch QE as a TLTRO

( zerohedge)

iv)Germany/Deutsche bank

Our good friends over at Deutsche bank lost another 750 million dollar in equity trading this quarter

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

a)Today, the OECD slashes GDP global growth forecasts and warns that it will probably get weaker

(OECD/zerohedge)

b)OH Oh! The Canadian loonie tumbles after the Bank of Canada warns that there is uncertainty about future rate hikes

( zerohedge)

c)Mac Slavo points out the obvious:  the global economy is sinking fast

(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTplan.com

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)VENEZUELA/

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

Craig Hemke explains the manipulation process and how the banks make money on this. They get away with it with the complicity of the regulators.
(courtesy Craig Hemke/Sprott)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

 

 

ii)Market data

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)USA trade deficit soars to 621 billion dollars, the highest in 11 years.  The goods deficit hit a record 891 billion dollars only to be saved a little from service surplus of 270 billion dollars.  The monthly deficit soared to 59 billion dollars. The trade deficit with China also increased dramatically to  419 billion dollars.  The reason for the increase: bigger imports of goods and that happened due to tax cuts.

( zerohedge)

b)Trump may nationalize 5G Networking and it may be an important pivotal position in his 2020 re election bid
( Kern/SafeHaven.com)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

Nadler is a man in search of a crime and that will be the Democrats modus operandi for the next 2 years.

(courtesy Sara Carter)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 8269 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 471,311 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.70) IN YESTERDAY’S RAID// COMEX TRADING).

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7293 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 7293, FOR JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS AND FINALLY DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7293 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 8269 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7239 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2976 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ONLY::8269 contracts OR 826,900 OZ OR 25.72 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MARCH and here the open interest stands at 87 contracts  for a loss of 54 contracts.We had 19 notices served upon yesterday so we LOST 35 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 3500 oz will NOT  stand at the comex as these guys   morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus for their effort.

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after  March is the  active delivery month is April and here the OI FELL by 4129 contracts down to 296,640 contracts. The non active month of May picked up 8 contracts for a total of 145 open interest.  After May, the next active delivery month is June and here the OI stands at 103,581 having gained 6701 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 39 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 3900 OZ. (0.0590 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 36 CONTRACTS FROM 195,000 DOWN TO 190,024(AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 906 HAVING GAINED 61 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD 108 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 169 CONTRACTS OR 845,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER FOR OVER 3 YEARS IN THAT THE TOTAL OZ STANDING INCREASES FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE STANDING.

TODAY THE  SILVER COMEX IS IN STRESS.!! WE HAVE HAD FOR THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE DAY A HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS A HUGE INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

 

 

AFTER MARCH, WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.  HERE: APRIL RISES TO 798 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 2 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 929 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 139,057 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED A STRONG 2156 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 56 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2192 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2156 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS LOSS OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 372 notice(s) filed for 1,860,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  264,768  CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  383,052  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Initial standings for  MAR/GOLD

MAR 6 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
7724.018
oz
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
39 notice(s)
 13900 OZ
(0.1213 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
48 contracts
(4800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
302 notices
30,200 OZ
.9393 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) out of Scotia: 7720.018 oz

 

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer; 7720.018  oz

we had 0  adjustments…

FOR THE MAR 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 39 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 22 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (302) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (87 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (39 x 100 oz per contract) equals 35,000 OZ OR 1.088 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of MARCH

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (302 x 100 oz)  + {87)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (39 x 100 oz )which equals 35,00000 oz standing OR 1.088 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH.

We LOST 35 contracts or an additional 3500 oz  NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS.

 

HOWEVER, THE GOLD COMEX (AND SILVER COMEX) ARE NOW IN STRESS AS THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO FIND PHYSICAL METAL.

SURPRISINGLY NO GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 11.388 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  366,127.915 oz or  11.388 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,099,448.535 oz 251.926 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON

MARCH 2018 VS MARCH 2019 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

ON FEB 27.2018 WE HAD 995 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING (2 DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE)  VS FEB 26.2019:  539 CONTRACTS.(2 DAYS BEFORE FDN)

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 1/2018: TOTAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 2.1524 TONNES

THE FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE: MARCH 31/2018:  1.6114 TONNES AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 29 MONTHS 103 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH

MAR INITIAL standings/SILVER

MAR 6 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
177.885.956  oz
Brinks
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
753,435.510
oz
Brinks
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
372
CONTRACT(S)
1,860,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
534 contracts
2,670,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4700 contracts

(23,500,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  2 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.32% of all official comex silver. (147 million/298 million)

 

i) Into brinks:  600,820.460  oz

ii) Into Scotia:  152,605.05 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 753,435.510   oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  152,605.087 oz

ii) Out of CNT:  25,280.869 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 177,885.956. oz    oz

 

we had 1 adjustment

i) Out of HSBC

5,161.500 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of HSBC

 

 

total dealer silver:  94.078 million

total dealer + customer silver:  299.571 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MARCH 2019. contract month is represented by 372 contract(s) FOR  1,860,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4700 x 5,000 oz = 23,500,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (906) and the number of notices served upon today (372 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 4700(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR( 906) -number of notices served upon today (372)x 5000 oz equals 26,170,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained a considerable 169 contracts or an additional 845,000 oz will stand as bankers queue jumped in order to receive badly needed physical metal. The silver comex is in deep stress as this is the 4TH day in a row of a huge gain in silver oz standing.

 

 

 

 

 

ON MARCH 1.2018 WE HAD 24.670 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STAND FOR DELIVERY. BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE DELIVERY MONTH, 27.190 MILLION OZ STOOD AS QUEUE JUMPING IN THE SILVER COMEX ARENA HAD BEEN THE NORM FOR QUITE A WHILE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  56,110 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 72,100 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 72,100 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 360 million OZ  51.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.56% (MAR 6/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.94% to NAV (MAR 6/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.56%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.94/TRADING 12.57/DISCOUNT 2.88

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $1.70: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.87 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY AND THIS GOLD HAS BEEN USED IN THE WHACKING PROCESS YESTERDAY AND TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD ANOTHER $12.50 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33 TONNES

FEB 26  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

 

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.99 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/ A SURPRISE GAIN (DEPOSIT) OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.50 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

FEB 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: WE HAD ANOTHER PAPER RAID (WITHDRAWAL) OF 2.04 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES/

FEB 13:/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER RAID BY OUR CROOKED BANKERS AS THEY WITHDREW ANOTHER 2.23 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.89 TONNES

FEB 12: WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO WHACK OUR PRECIOUS METAL TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.00/THE CROOKS WITHDREW ANOTHER HUGE 6.59 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.29 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP 35 CENTS/ANOTHER PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 811.82 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 813.29 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i)A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.37 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM THE GLD AND THEN ii) a A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.40 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAR 6/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 766.59 tonnes

*IN LAST 554 TRADING DAYS: 168.46 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 454 TRADING DAYS: A NET 1.64 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS//A  SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 610,000 OZ//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ/

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT; NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/RESTS AT 309.984

FEB 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ/

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS: SURPRISINGLY A DEPOSIT OF 1.688 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: A DEPOSIT OF 423,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ

FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 306.935 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT TH SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999  MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000  OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ.

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 129,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY  RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

 

MAR 6/2019:

 

Inventory 308.503 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.21/ and libor 6 month duration 2.68

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .47

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.51%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.88

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.37

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

JPMorgan Is Bullish on Gold as a Hedge Against Rising Inflation

Precious Metals SWOT Analysis: JPMorgan Is Bullish on Gold 

by Frank Holmes via GoldSeek

Precious Metal Strengths

  • The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 2.81 percent with continued price strength. Gold traders were split between bullish, bearish and neutral on the yellow metal this week as prices struggled to recover and posted a monthly loss for February. Lawmakers in Romania are drafting legislation aiming to repatriate the country’s gold stored in the United Kingdom. The bill is to amend a Romanian central bank law that allows only 5 percent of its gold reserves abroad. This is a positive signal of countries wanting to hold their gold domestically. Palladium saw a seventh monthly gain in February and is up an amazing 83 percent since mid-August. The precious metal has been rallying due to a supply shortage as car manufacturers increasingly need palladium to meet emission standards.
  • Another precious metal getting attention as of late? Platinum. In the month of February, platinum saw the biggest inflows into ETFs in almost six years. The palladium rally has helped renew investor interest in its sister metal. Impala Platinum Holdings, the world’s second largest platinum miner, made a significant reduction in its debt and share prices rose more than 9 percent on Thursday to the highest since October 2016.
  • Kitco News reports that the drama between the world’s two largest mining companies intensified this week. Newmont Mining rejected an all-stock merger proposed by Barrick Gold. Newmont released a statement saying that it prefers to move forward with its acquisition of Goldcorp, with that new company surpassing Barrick to become the world’s largest miner.

 

Precious Metal Weaknesses

  • The worst performing metal this week was silver, down 4.74 percent on hedge funds cutting their net long position by about 10 percent this past week. American Eagle gold coin sales fell 81 percent in February to just 12,500 ounces after posting a two-year high in January, according to U.S. Mint data. This comes as spot gold prices hit their highest level since April on February 20, and then slid to post the first monthly loss in five, writes Bloomberg. The London Bullion Market Association reported that gold trading in January declined to an average 19.6 million ounces per day, a 17 percent drop from the previous month. Gold suffered a narrow loss in February after four straight months of gains. Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, said that the “U.S. dollar strength is a key danger for gold, and the technical picture for gold has deteriorated with the failure around $1,340.”
  • Turkey continues to sell its gold reserves. Central bank data from Ankara shows that reserves fell 4.5 tons month-over-month in January to 440.8 tons. At least eight tons of gold were removed from Venezuela’s central bank last week, according to unidentified government sources who did not say where the gold was going to. In 2018, 23 tons of Venezuelan gold was transported to Istanbul, and some speculate that is the same place this going is going to as well.
  • Centamin Plc, an Egyptian gold miner, saw its shares fall as much as 22 percent on Monday after forecasting production estimates below analyst expectations. The company forecast production from 490,000 to 520,000 ounces in 2019, which is less than the amount mined in 2017.

 

Precious Metal Opportunities

  • According to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, palladium consumption by the auto sector will grow 1.1 percent in 2019 due to stricter environmental laws requiring more usage of the metal. This comes despite the recent contraction in car sales in both Europe and China. Strategists Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari wrote in a report that “with emission regulations getting tighter across major countries, we see higher loadings requirements offsetting a slowdown in the auto sector’s palladium demand.” Bloomberg reports that Impala Platinum Holdings plans to start building a new palladium mine that could begin producing as early as 2024. The miner plans to start work on the Waterberg project in South Africa in 2021, says CEO Nico Muller. Anglo American Platinum Ltd, the world’s top platinum miner, is looking at plans to boost its palladium output through the expansion of one of its current mines.
  • JPMorgan is bullish on gold as a hedge against rising inflation. Strategists led by John Normand wrote in a note last week that “TIPS and gold seem like the most durable inflation hedges for a unique macro environment when the Fed’s reaction function isn’t the only regime change impacting real assets.” Bloomberg’s Joanna Ossinger writes that “the Fed appears to be considering trying to let inflation run hotter than its 2 percent target to make up for years below that level.”
  • Heraeus wrote this week the geopolitical risks should keep central banks buying gold. IMF data shows that at the end of 2018 central bank gold reserves reached their highest level since 1997 at 33,800 tons. The company writes that current geopolitical risks and growing concern about the U.S. dollar should drive more purchases of gold as a hedge against instability and a way to diversify.

 

Precious Metal Threats

  • In regards to Barrick’s attempt to takeover Newmont, Doug Groh, a portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management had some harsh words. “It seems arrogant on Barrick’s behalf to assume shareholders will believe in the value creation of the merged Barrick-Newmont entity as the offset to a premium that’s not paid in the marketplace directly in the bid. It’s cheeky on their part to assume shareholders are so naïve as to assume premium value will come through their execution.” According to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Andrew Cosgrove, the top 20 holders in Barrick, who own 55 percent of total shares outstanding, also own 91 percent of Newmont’s shares. This fact makes it clear that Barrick’s management may have a hard time fighting against shareholders if they support Newmont and demand a higher premium. Another potential issue regarding this potential merger? Review by the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice about it possibly substantially lessening competition in the gold mining space in the United States. Would America want its largest domestically based gold company to be taken over by foreign hands? Barrick would dominate Nevada, potentially stifling competition in the nation’s biggest gold mining state.
  • Goldcorp could be left at the altar, so to speak, if Newmont merges with Barrick. Under that proposed merger, Newmont would need to abandon its already planned acquisition of Goldcorp. Additionally, Barrick would need to sell several small Australian miners as a part of the deal. But would anyone be there to buy them? Or will the other miners allow Barrick to struggle to rationalize its assets instead of helping it turn noncore assets into cash?
  • The Environmental Project Agency (EPA) is facing negligence claims after workers triggered the release of millions of gallons of mining wastewater and toxic sediment into the Animas River in New Mexico. The 2015 Gold King Mine spill occurred when the EPA accidentally opened a passage leading into the mine when trying to identify actions needed to address contamination flowing from the site, writes Bloomberg. The government isn’t required to clean up their spill.Courtesy of GoldSeek.com

 

News and Commentary

 

Gold edges above five-week low as market rally pauses (Reuters.com)

Gold dips as dollar gains on robust U.S. data (Reuters.com)

Wall Street slips as GE swoons, key market level looms (Reuters.com)

Stocks stall, dollar stands tall as China trims growth targets (Reuters.com)

Demands that the Romanian National Bank bring gold reserves held abroad back home (Business-Review.eu)

Death of Bond Volatility Has Pimco Fearing for Europe’s Future (Bloomberg.com)

It’s Payback Time for Stocks as Balance-Sheet-Be-Damned Ends (Bloomberg.com)

China’s Largest Property Developer Will Sell All Homes At A 10% Discount (AsiaTimes.com)

EU, ECB Activate Emergency Currency Swap Line To Brace For ‘No Deal’ Brexit (ZeroHedge.com)

JPMorganChase has just flushed the silver futures market again, (Gata.org)

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM (Gata.org)

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

05 Mar: USD 1,285.00, GBP 975.19 & EUR 1,134.78 per ounce
04 Mar: USD 1,287.45, GBP 972.93 & EUR 1,135.14 per ounce
01 Mar: USD 1,309.95, GBP 989.27 & EUR 1,152.23 per ounce
28 Feb: USD 1,325.45, GBP 996.21 & EUR 1,162.82 per ounce
27 Feb: USD 1,326.45, GBP 998.02 & EUR 1,164.09 per ounce
26 Feb: USD 1,327.55, GBP 1005.79 & EUR 1,168.11 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

05 Mar: USD 15.11, GBP 11.47 & EUR 13.33 per ounce
04 Mar: USD 15.16, GBP 11.50 & EUR 13.38 per ounce
01 Mar: USD 15.56, GBP 11.75 & EUR 13.67 per ounce
28 Feb: USD 15.81, GBP 11.89 & EUR 13.85 per ounce
27 Feb: USD 15.86, GBP 11.91 & EUR 13.92 per ounce
26 Feb: USD 15.83, GBP 11.98 & EUR 13.93 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Gold – It Might Be Different This Time
– Euromillions Winners To Invest In Gold In 2019?
– Gold Still on a Long Term Track to Reach $2,000 An Ounce
– “Gold Is A Global Thermometer Of Risk” – CEO Q+A: Stephen Flood, GoldCore
– U.S. Mint Suspends Silver Bullion Coin Sales After Sales Double In February
– MMT: Modern Monetary Madness Will Lead To Higher Taxes and Inflation
– Gold Broker Has Good Sense and Prefers Gold To All That Glitters (The Times)
– The Utterly Unbelievable Scale of U.S. Debt Right Now

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

Sho

 

GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
Craig Hemke explains the manipulation process and how the banks make money on this. They get away with it with the complicity of the regulators.
(courtesy craig Hemke/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Comex silver ‘market’ dynamics

 Section: 

5:12p ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

JPMorganChase has just flushed the silver futures market again, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes today at Sprott Money, and now will let the price rise in preparation for another flush. Hemke suggests that there’s money to be made following the investment bank’s market manipulation.

His analysis is headlined “Comex Silver ‘Market’ Dynamics” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/comex-silver-market-dynamics-craig-hemk…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

This topic has been covered already this week:  Romania joins the gold repatriation exodus from storage at the Bank of England.  We wish the country well in their attempt to get their gold back

(courtesy Manly/Bullionstar/GATA)

Ronan Manly: Romania joins gold repatriation exodus

 Section: 

9:26p ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly today examines the effort in Romania’s parliament to repatriate the country’s gold reserves from the Bank of England and concludes that it opens a new front between democracy and the arrogance and unaccountability of the central bank.

If legislators enact the bill, Manly writes, “Romania looks set to join the ranks of Hungary, Austria, Germany, and the Netherlands in bringing gold bars back into domestic storage. Which European nation will be next after Romania? Poland is a likely candidate, with 102.9 tonnes of gold stored at the Bank of England.”

Manly’s analysis is headlined “The Domino Effect: Romania Joins Gold Repatriation Exodus” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/the-domino-effect-romania-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END



iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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-END-

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7085/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7176   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 47.85 POINTS OR 1.57% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 76.00 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 129.47 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MIXED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.72/Euro FALLS TO 1.1303

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.86/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.17 and Brent: 65.78

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN  /OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.15%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.69% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.14%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.54: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.73

3k Gold at $1286.40 silver at:15.09   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 4/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.84

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.86 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0017 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1357 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.15%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.71% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.08%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4011

 

US Futures Slide On Lack Of New “Trade Deal Optimism”; Dollar Ramps Higher

The historic, post-Christmas rally struggled for a second day, with the S&P still unable to decisively cross the critical 2800 resistance level and sliding in a quiet overnight session, while European shares also faded after a mixed Asian session as investors await fresh catalysts on trade and monetary policy. Meanwhile, the dollar advanced for a sixth day as Treasuries edged higher.

 

Carmakers fell and miners rose, leaving the Stoxx Europe 600 Index little changed with the DAX underperforming peers as auto names weigh alongside banks and insurance names with markets shrugging off a downbeat global economic assessment from the OECD. European banks were again hit by the ever-widening money-laundering scandal which seems to add more names with every passing day. On Wednesday, RBS said it was looking into allegations of money laundering through certain Dutch banks and reports this may concern an ABN Amro business line acquired by RBS. Investors can now add regulatory penalties to the list of bank sector worries after bank were the second-worst Stoxx 600 performer in 2018, hit by political uncertainty, a flattening yield curve and low rates. That relative peformance has continued to send the price ratio vs the Stoxx 600 lower this year, with the earnings season disappointing and consensus 12-month forward EPS estimates falling almost 4%.

Unable to rise above 2,800 for two weeks in a row, S&P 500 futures had no other choice but to decline. Eminis have now been trading in a tight, 20 point range sine mid-February.

 

Earlier in Asia, a familiar pattern emerged as Chinese shares once again outperformed as the local stock bubble is rapidly scrambling to recreate its 2015 majesty while Japanese equities dropped. The Shanghai Composite surged another 1.6%, rising above 3,100 after a last hour ramp perhaps the result of China’s National Team attempts to herd even more mom and pop investors into the rising momentum. Volumes were again massive, with over 1 trillion yuan trading on Wednesday.

 

Elsewhere in Asia, RBA Governor Lowe reiterated his neutral stance nothing that the RBA has flexibility to adjust monetary policy in either direction, probabilities of a rate hike or cut are evenly balanced. He also stated it is hard to imagine a rate hike this year, and it is unlikely inflation will be a problem anytime soon. Lowe added that he is confident inflation will get back to the middle of 2-3% target range, Q3 and Q4 GDP likely to be significantly below trend. The AUD was hit hard when the Australian Real GDP for Q4 printed at 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (YY Q4 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.5%).

Investors remain jittery, looking for hints on what Trump will do next on negotiations with China as trade remains high on the agenda. Meanwhile, the bond market signals more caution and Morgan Stanley is now predicting Treasury yields will drop as low as 2.35% by the end of the year. Traders will also get a jolt from the ECB’s policy decision today when Mario Draghi may announce the long overdue TLTRO.

In rates, traders saw a pop higher in German Bund futures, with 10y and 30y yields initially -3bps as the curve bull flattened, before gains were pared dragging USTs off the highs, while peripheral bonds tightened modestly to core. Gilt yields were ~2bps lower across the curve as Brexit anxiety remains elevated. The Bloomberg dollar index traded in the middle of its overnight range, stronger for the sixth day and defying Trump’s latest dollar bashing.

 

The pound weakened on speculation U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May could be in for another bruising vote in Parliament on Brexit, and the Australian dollar sank after weak GDP data on the economy spurred bets on interest-rate cuts. Emerging-market stocks gained for a fourth day and currencies were steady.

In Central bank news, BoJ Board Member Harada (Dissenter) opposed the BoJ’s new forward guidance due to the view that guidance must be data-dependent and not calendar-dependent. In his view, forward guidance must have a commitment to keep rate low until inflation beats expectations. He also said underlying inflation weakness could weigh on inflation expectations and delay the acceleration of inflation, and despite the rising household income.

In geopolitical news, North Korea was reportedly taken aback by the sudden end to the Trump-Kim summit; and it will take North Korea some time to review what happened; according to Korean press citing the South Korean government. US National Security Adviser Bolton said US will increase sanctions on North Korea if it does not move towards denuclearisation.

In the latest Brexit news, EU and UK Brexit talks ended with no agreement but are to continue on Wednesday; according to sources. Furthermore, an EU official said the talks did not go well. A senior UK minister, who is directly involved in Brexit planning, said: “It’s inevitable there would have to be a technical extension” and added that a month is unlikely to be enough, two months would be needed to get the legislation through, and this is accepted in government. If UK MPs reject PM May’s deal a second time next week, parliament would take control and force a softer Brexit; according to Chief Whip Smith.

Elsewhere, commodities were led lower by oil after API showed a massive buildup in U.S. crude stockpiles.  Brent (-0.2%) and WTI (-0.9%) prices are in the red following the larger than expected build in API Crude Inventories yesterday of 7.4mln vs. Exp. 1.2mln. If the API build is confirmed by EIA data later on today this would be a large contrast to the prior draw. That said, UBS highlighted that a build of this size would not mean a major deviation from the seasonal average within the context of the prior two months data, as such should not result in a lasting impact on oil prices. Elsewhere, China have cancelled Canadian Co. Richardson Internationals registration to ship canola to China; following this, China’s foreign ministry state that harmful pests have been discovered in samples taken from Canadian Canola oil and a serious problem has been highlighted in one Co’s shipments. Although, it is currently not clear which company this refers to. Gold (-0.1%) is approaching the bottom of its narrow USD 4/oz range, but is largely unchanged on the day. Elsewhere, the World Platinum Investment Council stated that the global platinum market will this year experience the largest surplus since around 2013.

Besides the ECB, data on ADP private payrolls, mortgage applications, and the trade balance are due. Earnings include Dollar Tree and Brown-Forman.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,786.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 unchanged at 375.63
  • MXAP down 0.04% to 159.45
  • MXAPJ up 0.1% to 526.46
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 21,596.81
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,615.25
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 29,037.60
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.6% to 3,102.10
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 36,646.46
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,245.62
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,175.60
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to 0.153%
  • Euro down 0.04% to $1.1303
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $65.46/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.1 bps to 2.349%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 1.137%
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $65.46/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,286.42
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.05% to 96.92

Top Overnight News by Bloomberg

  • President Donald Trump is pressuring U.S. trade negotiators to cut a deal with China soon in hope of fueling a market rally, as he grows increasingly concerned that the lack of an agreement could drag down stocks, according to people familiar with the matter
  • Wall Street could face fresh restrictions on bonus payments as regulators appointed by President Trump consider dusting off post-crisis rules that have long been on the back burner, according to two people familiar with the matter
  • The global economy is suffering more than expected from trade tensions and political uncertainty which are clouding prospects particularly in Europe, according to a gloomy report from the OECD
  • Japan’s economy is at risk of sliding into a recession after a demand-sapping sales tax hike planned later this year, despite a raft of government measures to limit its impact, according to Bank of Japan board member Yutaka Harada
  • China’s yuan has been the hottest carry trade in Asia this year, thanks to its rapid advance and muted price swings
  • When Qatar sells debt, it sells big. The gas-rich nation is planning a three-part issuance less than a year after raising $12 billion in one of the largest offerings in emerging markets. It’s joining a host of borrowers across developing nations that raised $336 billion in 2019, a record on a year-to-date basis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg

Asian stocks were mixed following a muted lead from Wall Street in which the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all closed just below breakeven. ASX 200 (+0.7%) shrugged off poor economic data and advanced as the material and mining sectors lead the gains, while Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) underperformed as the index is weighed on by a marginally firmer domestic currency alongside China-exposed sectors after China’s announcement of tax cuts yesterday. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+1.6%) and Hang Seng (+0.2%) gained momentum following yesterday’s NPC announcement alongside effects from the MSCI upgrade last week. RBA Governor Lowe reiterated his neutral stance; RBA has flexibility to adjust monetary policy in either direction, probabilities of a rate hike or cut are evenly balanced. He also stated it is hard to imagine a rate hike this year, and it is unlikely inflation will be a problem anytime soon. Lowe added that he is confident inflation will get back to the middle of 2-3% target range, Q3 and Q4 GDP likely to be significantly below trend. Australian Real GDP QQ SA Q4 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%) Australian Real GDP YY SA Q4 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.8%).

Top Asian News

  • Trump Is Said to Push for China Deal With Market Gains in Mind
  • U.S., China Trade Deal Leaves Currencies as Fighting Ground
  • Midea Is the Latest China Stock to Near Foreign Holding Limit

Major European indices are moving towards being unchanged [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%] after opening lower and subsequently extending losses; in spite of largely stronger performance overnight. The FTSE 100 (+0.1%) is marginally outperforming its peers boosted by strong performance in DS Smith (+4.1%) after the Co. announced they are selling their plastics division for GBP 585mln. Additional support for the index stems from heavyweights British American Tobacco (+3.8%) and Imperial Brands (+1.3%) in the green following FDA Chief Gottlieb resigning, as his tenure was highlighted by a high-profile push to lower youth smoking including e-cigarettes; this may have also result in some upside for US tobacco names such as Phillip Morris. Other notable movers include Schaeffler (-8.4%) at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 following the announcement of a restructuring program and issuing a warning about a challenging and demanding auto market ahead. Separately, Subsea 7 (+3.7%) are higher after they were awarded 3 contracts by Woodside, describe as major contracts, which may exceed USD 750mln in value.

Top European News

  • Not Enough Votes Yet as Brussels Talks Continue: Brexit Bulletin
  • Greek Stocks Party Like It’s 1999 as No-Growth Era Seen Over
  • L&G Tumbles as Cash Boost From Retirement Business Disappoints
  • Biggest Fortune in EU’s East Gets Caught Up in Huawei Scandal

In FX, the DXY hovers just shy of the 97.000 handle and Fib resistance a whisker above (97.004 vs Tuesday’s 97.017 peak). Usd/Jpy is back below 112.00 after what appears to have been a false break-out to circa 112.12 yesterday (and also a fleeting Fib breach), but the pull-back could be shallow given 1.2 bn option expiries running off from 111.80-112.00 at the NY cut. The Franc is holding just off 1.0055 lows and pivoting 1.1350 vs the single currency, while Eur/Usd remains anchored around 1.1300 with 1.1305 eyed as a key chart point on a closing basis and expiries also in the mix as 1 bn resides at the 1.1300 strike.

  • AUD/NZD – No respite for the Aussie as a disappointing Q4 growth update extends the run of mainly sub-forecast data releases and adds more justification for the RBA’s shift to neutral policy mode. In fact, comments from Governor Lowe in the run up to the GDP update could be construed as more dovish on balance given that he effectively ruled out any prospect of tightening this year, while reiterating equal odds of a hike or cut in terms of the next rate move, and the market certainly took heed as Aud/Usd collapsed from just under 0.7100 to circa 0.7024 amidst a cascade of calls for 2 OCR eases of 25 bp by the end of 2019 in line with Westpac’s pre-emptive downgraded forecasts in February. Predictably, the Kiwi saw some contagion to a low not far from 0.6750 at one stage, but Nzd/Usd has rebounded relatively firmly to 0.6780+ on favourable cross-winds as Aud/Nzd extends losses through 1.0400 to 1.0360. Note, however, Aud/Usd may yet derive some traction and get a reprieve to stave off a more concerted test of 0.7000 via decent option expiry interest between 0.7045-50 (1 bn).
  • GBP/CAD – The Pound continues to be buffeted by fluctuating Brexit sentiment after a brief boost courtesy of hawkish-leaning remarks from BoE Governor Carney late yesterday, with Cable back down near 1.3100 and a recent double-base a few pips short of the big figure, while Eur/Gbp has rebounded to the 0.8600 area again. Back to Brexit, and the bottom line remains no further progress after latest high level talks between UK and EU officials and apparently quite terse negotiations in Brussels as the baton passes to less senior personnel today. Turning to the Loonie, another downturn in crude prices and ongoing angst between Canada and China has culminated in Usd/Cad creeping up further towards the 1.3400 level, as offers said to be layered from 1.3375 to the next round number are soaked up, but the looming BoC policy meeting will likely provide more impetus. On that note, options pricing suggest a break-even of 67 pips for the impending event.

In commodities, Brent (-0.2%) and WTI (-0.9%) prices are in the red following the larger than expected build in API Crude Inventories yesterday of 7.4mln vs. Exp. 1.2mln. If the API build is confirmed by EIA data later on today this would be a large contrast to the prior draw. UBS highlight that a build of this size would not mean a major deviation from the seasonal average within the context of the prior two months data, as such should not result in a lasting impact on oil prices. Elsewhere, China have cancelled Canadian Co. Richardson Internationals registration to ship canola to China; following this, China’s foreign ministry state that harmful pests have been discovered in samples taken from Canadian Canola oil and a serious problem has been highlighted in one Co’s shipments. Although, it is currently not clear which company this refers to. Separately, US National Security Advisor Bolton says he is looking at fresh sanctions against Venezuela to increase the pressure on President Maduro. Gold (-0.1%) is approaching the bottom of its narrow USD 4/oz range, but is largely unchanged on the day. Elsewhere, the World Platinum Investment Council stated that the global platinum market will this year experience the largest surplus since around 2013.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 5.3%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 190,000, prior 213,000
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $57.9b deficit, prior $49.3b deficit
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Central Banks

  • 12pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks to Economic Club of New York
  • 12pm: Fed’s Mester Participates in Moderated Discussion
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The “March Flu” lives on with some power but I’m returning to functioning adult duties but yesterday was another day to reflect on getting older and being more out of touch. To set the scene as a music geek there was a time between around 1980 and maybe the early 2000s when I could have probably recited every number one single over the period in the UK in chronological order. However at some point in the last 10-15 years I lost touch with the charts even if I still try to discover new music when I can. Anyway at the beginning of the year I heard this great new song on a random Spotify (venue of some great DB podcasts) playlist and have played it to death on my headphones since. It was my little discovery/secret and made me feel cool that I still had an ear for music. Anyway on randomly flicking through the newspaper yesterday I stumbled across the U.K. singles chart and to my confusion discovered that the song I thought was my little secret is actually number 1 in the charts. Nice to be so out of touch that you’re secretly in touch. The song is called “Someone You Loved” by Lewis Capaldi. To be honest there are a lot of similarities to “Someone Like You” by Adele. So if that song is your bag then please hunt out. If it’s not you probably should avoid. But then again if you’re under 30-35 you probably know all this already.

After the trade euphoria that kick started the week, markets have quickly become stuck in a soggy patch with no real catalysts to push them one way or the other with any conviction. The good news is that we’ve got an ECB meeting and a payrolls Friday to look forward to in the last two days of this week so hopefully that will inject a bit of energy back into markets again. In the meantime, equity markets were a little directionless yesterday before the S&P 500 ended -0.11%. That is now five down days in the last six however the cumulative loss during that run is only -0.23% so it’s hardly been a material move. Elsewhere, the NASDAQ (-0.02%) and DOW (-0.05%) also just about closed in the red while the STOXX 600 (+0.15%) managed to finish onside having clawed back earlier losses. Part of the underperformance in the US might have been due to Secretary of State Pompeo talking about Trump being ready to walk away from a trade agreement with China unless he secures a “perfect deal” however the reality is that Pompeo has been less directly involved in talks between the two sides so the comment was taken with a bit of a pinch of salt.

Corporate headlines also impacted markets, the biggest impact coming from comments from GE’s CEO Larry Culp. He said at a conference that he expects free cash flow from the firm’s industrial business to be negative this year, after a healthy positive cash flow of $4.5bn last year. GE stock fell -4.72% and its 2035 bonds traded +10bps. Weakness in GE had weighed on corporate credit last year, but indexes of US IG and HY cash credit closed near flat yesterday. In broader equities, the industrials sector led declines in the S&P 500, dropping -0.64%. On the other hand, a bright spot was the US retail sector, which advanced +0.26% after Target (+4.60%) and Kohl’s (+7.33%) both announced profit projections for this year that topped consensus expectations.

As for government bond markets, well Bunds traded as high as 0.1838% intraday yesterday post the more palatable PMIs (more on the below) but ultimately yields faded as sentiment turned with Bunds eventually finishing just +1.0bps higher at 0.168%. BTPs (-3.1bps) actually outperformed after Italy’s Q4 GDP reading was revised up to a slightly smaller contraction (-0.1% qoq from -0.2%) – albeit one that still left Italy in a technical recession at the end of last year.

Meanwhile, Treasuries also retraced an early selloff of +2.5bps to close the day flat at 2.72% (-1.4bps this morning). A fairly decent ISM non-manufacturing (see below) was offset somewhat by dovish comments from the Fed’s Rosengren. This was a little bit of a surprise given that he was one of the more hawkish officials who had worried about overheating risks in the past. Instead, Rosengren said that “it may be several meetings before the Fed has a clear read on whether economic risks are becoming reality”. So that puts Rosengren more in the patience camp for now.

This morning in Asia markets are trading mixed with the Nikkei (-0.69%) and Kospi (-0.32%) down while the Hang Seng (+0.31%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.94%) are up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.28%) are heading lower and the Australian dollar is weak (-0.71%) this morning as Australia’s Q4 GDP came in one tenth lower than expected at +0.2% qoq leading to traders increasing their probability of a rate cut. In other news, the BoJ has increased the buying of bonds in the 5y-10y maturity bucket by JPY 50bn at today’s regular operation (JPY 480bn today vs. JPY 430bn in last week). However, the increase was expected after the BOJ last week tweaked its monthly bond-purchase plan and reduced the number of days it would buy 5-10yr bonds to four in March, from five in February.

Overnight, BoJ board member Yutaka Harada has said that Japan’s economy might slide into a recession after a planned sales tax hike later this year, despite a raft of government measures to limit its impact. He cited the example of the 2014 sales tax hike which hit consumption hard and as a result the BoJ ramped up its stimulus 6 months into the hike. Harada is definitely at the dovish end of the committee.

Staying in the region, with China’s NPC into its second day, yesterday our China Chief Economist Zhiwei Zhang outlined his summary of the government’s 2019 work plan which you can find here . Zhiwei believes that the speech sent more signals of policy easing – both fiscal and monetary – and as such he now expects two cuts to the benchmark lending rate of 25bps each in Q2 and Q3.

Back to the PMIs, upward revisions to the core and better than expected non-core readings meant we saw the services reading for the Euro Area revised up half a point to 52.8 and therefore the highest since November. That left the composite at 51.9 which means it finally snapped a run of five consecutive monthly declines. So finally some signs of improving momentum in Europe, or at least in the services sector. Germany’s services reading was revised up from 55.1 to 55.3, France to 50.2 from 49.8 while there were beats for Italy (50.4 vs. 49.5 expected) and Spain (54.5 vs. 54.3 expected). All eyes turn to the ECB tomorrow however one has to expect that the data plays into the wait-and-see message that we’ve been getting from officials of late.

We should also note that the services reading for the UK also surprised to the upside yesterday at 51.3 (vs. 49.9 expected) – up 1.2pts from January. That being said the underlying details were weaker including the employment component. Sterling closed flat, with downside pressure from Brexit headlines offset by positive monetary policy signals. First, Bloomberg headlines popped up just after lunch suggesting that no breakthrough was expected at the Brexit talks yesterday in Brussels. A further story suggested that no agreement was likely on the backstop before the end of this week and that talks could potentially stretch into the weekend (how many times have we said that on both pure EU issues and with Brexit). On the other hand, the pound got some support via comments from Bank of England Governor Carney, who said that “the path of interest rates is not quite high enough,” suggesting that current pricing for the next rate hike for Q4 this year may not be in-line with his own expectations. Staying in the U.K., Bloomberg reported (citing sources) yesterday that the UK PM May’s chief whip Julian Smith is not confident that he has the numbers for March 12th Brexit vote and has predicted that in the votes that follow, a no-deal Brexit would be taken off the table, and the government would be instructed to seek an extension to talks. He also said that he expected lawmakers to put down further amendments that would pass and put the UK on course to staying in the customs union. Sterling is trading weak (-0.32%) this morning as Reuters overnight confirmed the above Bloomberg story that the Brexit talks yesterday didn’t yield any progress and cited an EU official as saying they didn’t go well!

Back to yesterday’s data and as well as the PMIs, we also got the February ISM non-manufacturing reading in the US which looked particularly impressive at a headline level (59.7 vs. 57.4 expected) after jumping 1.7pts and to the highest since November last year. The new orders component also rose 7.5pts to 65.2 and the highest since 2005 however the one small negative was a slight drop in the employment component to 55.2 from 57.8 last month. That said, today’s ADP (190k expected) is likely to be more important for setting payrolls expectations this Friday.

As for the other US data yesterday, new home sales for December printed at 621,000, better than expected but along with a downward revision to the prior month, leaving the overall outlook roughly unchanged. The Treasury’s monthly budget statement showed a surplus of $8.7bn for January, marginally smaller than expected. These statement will become more interesting when we get deeper into tax season over the next few months, to help us better gauge the impact of last year’s tax cuts. Finally, the final Markit composite PMI for February was revised lower by 0.3pts to 55.5, still its highest level since last July.

Finally, in terms of the day ahead, we’ve got no data releases scheduled in Europe this morning while in the US the focus should be on the February ADP employment change reading, and the December trade balance. Later this evening we’ll also get the Fed’s Beige Book while the Fed’s Williams and Mester are due to speak this evening in New York and Ohio, respectively. The BoE’s Cunliffe and Saunders are also slated to speak while the OECD’s interim economic outlook is also due to be released.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 47.85 POINTS OR 1.57% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 76.00 POINTS OR 0.26%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 129.47 POINTS OR 0.60%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .72%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7085 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 56.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.78 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED 

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7085 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7176: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/

Not good:  North Korea already has re-started building its long range missile sites and these were revealed by satellite images

(courtesy zerohedge)

North Korea Starts Rebuilding Long-Range Missile Site, Satellite Images Reveal

Mere hours after Kim Jong Un arrived back in Pyongyang after the breakdown in talks with President Trump in Hanoi, the North Korean dictator was greeted by a flurry of western media reports warning that his regime had started rebuilding one of its missile-launch facilities. The reports, which follow a decision by the US and South Korea to again suspend military exercises on the peninsula, suggest that the Kim regime may be hedging its bets and planning to restart its missile tests – which have been halted since November 2017 – if the US refuses to budge on sanctions relief for the North Korean economy, which is suffering through an acute economic crisis.

Kim

Images from commercial satellites appear to confirm warnings from South Korean intelligence that the North has started “rapidly rebuilding” its long-range rocket-launch site at Sohae, according to the New York Times. Construction work at the facility, which was partially dismantled last summer as part of a good-faith gesture by the Kim regime, began before the Hanoi summit, and analysts said it could have started as early as mid-February. The facility is located in Tongchang-ri, a remote area near the northwestern border with China.

Map

Here are more images of the construction, courtesy of North Korea-focused blog 38 North:

Figure 1. Rail-mounted transfer building is being rebuilt.

NK

Figure 2. Engine support structure of the engine test stand is being reassembled.

NK

It’s no secret that the North has maintained many secret nuclear and missile testing facilities around the country, and intelligence analysts have warned that Kim may be negotiating in bad faith, hoping to win a modicum of sanctions relief while continuing to pursue the country’s nuclear ambitions.

The North claims the site is used to launch satellites as part of its space program, though critics of the regime say this is merely a cover for its role in the country’s missile program.

The Tongchang-ri facilities have been vital to North Korea’s space and missile programs. The country has used the facilities there to launch satellite-carrying rockets. The United States has called the satellite program a front for developing intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Mr. Kim visited the rocket engine test site in 2017 when engineers there successfully tested a new high-thrust engine, which was believed to have powered intercontinental ballistic missiles that the North launched months later.

Like the facility at Sohae, the North partially dismantled an engine test site, a rocket launchpad and a rail-mounted building used by engineers to assemble launch vehicles and move missiles to launch pads after the summit with Trump in Singapore. Later, Kim offered to completely destroy these facilities with monitors present as part of a peace offering. That offer, according to the Times, is now in doubt.

To be sure, it’s also possible that the North could be rebuilding the facility solely to make disassembling it even more dramatic when the time comes.

With Kim’s intentions in doubt, it’s worth remembering his suspiciously belligerent remarks during a speech given shortly after New Year’s, when Kim said he would seek a “new way” if some of the sanctions facing the country’s economy weren’t removed, and warned that “a nuclear button is always on my desk.”

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

i) CHINA/

Spot rates for 40 foot containers being shipped from China to North America is showing a continual slowdown. Another evidence of a contraction in the global economy

(courtesy zerohedge)_

Trade Panic: China To US Weekly Spot Rates For 40′ Containers Collapse

A continued slowdown in the rate at which weekly spot rates for 40′ shipping containers are being shipped from China to North America suggests US demand for Chinese goods continues to stumble, and signals a broader economic slowdown globally looms.

The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) represents ocean freight prices for 40′ shipping containers, is published weekly on Sundays and represents the price of the previous week (Sunday through Saturday). Prices used in the index are rolling short term freight spot tariffs between carriers, freight forwarders, and high-volume shippers. Index values are calculated by taking the median price for all prices on active lanes with weighting by the shipper.

During the last sixteen weeks, FBX 40′ shipping container rates from China to North America have seen a dramatic move lower, raising concerns about the health of underlying demand.

The North America West Coast to China/East Asia Index (FBX02) is down 39% since early November highs, retesting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level late last month and recently broke below December’s lows, is expected to probe 61.8%-Fib in the coming weeks.

The index had a notable impulse starting in March/April 2018, the move lasted 224 days and sent the index up 218% – thanks to President Trump’s trade war against China, which forced US importers to pull orders forward to get ahead of tariffs. However, by early November, rates collapsed after the importers were finished, with no signs of a trough in early March.

The North America East Coast to China/East Asia Index (FBX04) is down 26% since the end of November highs, is currently retesting the December lows when global markets were in a panic about slowing growth.

FBX shipping data shows 40′ shipping container rates are experiencing the worst pressure in North America East Coast to China/East Asia, China/East Asia to Europe, and North America West Coast to China. 

As a whole, the FBX Global Index shows container rates are in danger of taking out their December lows, signaling that the global slowdown is not a “glitch,” but rather the start of a severe synchronized downturn. 

On top of container rates plummeting, world trade has slowed in recent months, and leading indicators point to ongoing deceleration.

Of course, the FBX data is just the latest in a long line of worrying news for the Chinese economy but now shows the global slowdown is contagious, infecting the US economy where growth is expected to be less than 1% to near zero for 1Q19.

end

China’s dilemma: dollars (Eurodollars) leaving her shore as it seems that the real enemy is deflation and notinflation

(courtesy Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

China Has No Choice

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

China’s central bank was given more independence to conduct monetary policies in late 2003. It had been operating under Order No. 46 of the President of the People’s Republic of China issued in March 1995, which led the 3rd Session of the Eighth National People’s Congress (China’s de facto legislature) to create and adopt the Law of the People’s Republic of China on the People’s Bank of China. This was amended in December 2003 by the 6th Meeting of the Standing Committee of the Tenth National People’s Congress.

Already by then, the PBOC had begun using more of its monetary toolkit. It had experimented in 2002 with Open Market Operations, or OMO’s. The central bank would issue “bills” to Chinese banks, selling them in order to “soak up” excess liquidity under its definitions.

These were supplemented beginning in September 2003 by the first increase in the RRR, the reserve requirement ratio. This bank lever had been around since the eighties though rarely was it ever used. During China’s rough experience with the Asian flu in the late nineties, the RRR had been deeply reduced to help cushion the economic impact of massive eurodollar irregularities sweeping across its front.

This was an economic response in terms of a debt policy, not a monetary decision.

The RRR told banks how much they needed to keep in liquid reserves (a ledger entry, satisfied via cash holdings or on account with the central bank). If it was reduced, theoretically banks would be able to increase lending because they would be increasingly freed from the reserve constraint. This would include lending in China’s nascent wholesale money markets.

By 2003, the winds of eurodollar influence were blowing heavily in China’s favor again. That meant an excess of monetary resources for the banking sector, only some of which was scooped up by the PBOC as a consequence of pegging CNY’s exchange value to the dollar. To head off harmful inflation, the central bank required the more flexible mandate which was finally sanctioned at the Tenth Congress.

In those early years of it, authorities stuck to mostly OMO’s. There were only two RRR increases in the beginning, an experiment, too, of sorts. The Chinese central bank was new to this potential liquidity framework and the last thing they wanted was to do too much.

As the middle 2000’s progressed, and “hot money” eurodollar inflows only intensified, a more aggressive campaign was called for. By the middle of 2006, RRR increases became as regular as OMO’s.

The thing is, these didn’t really work all that well individually or in combination(s). There were several reasons for the lack of control, including the bureaucratic structure of China’s official apparatus, government to central bank and back again.

But most of all, RRR and/or OMO’s are blunt instruments of indeterminate pathologies. Exactly how does a 50 bps increase in the RRR effect a Chinese bank’s proclivity to lend? No one really knows but a higher reserve requirement does sound a lot like tightening.

As you can see above, China’s economy came to be plagued by high inflation anyway, especially damaging food price inflation.The country’s CPI suggested still the deflationary drag at the end of 2002, a decrease of 0.4% in the month of December 2002, but rising to a breakout +3.2% in December 2003.

It had at first seemed like the OMO’s were working, with inflation rates falling in the middle of 2005 before another sharp surge which triggered the aggressive response relying more on the uncertain RRR mechanics. By early 2008, despite the RRR having been pushed as high as 17.5% (for large banks), consumer price inflation was rampant the CPI reaching 8.5%. Food prices were rising by more than 20% per year.

The only thing that stopped the onslaught was Euro$ #2. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008, Euro$ #1, had been a temporary reprieve before the same massive money imbalances revisited China in its immediate aftermath. The RRR was pushed up to as much as 21.5% before the second global deflationary wave finally erased its momentum.

Since the middle of 2011, inflation is no longer a problem for the Chinese. Rather, monetary authorities now have nothing but the opposite concern.

Their patchwork response has been to do the same things only in reverse; for eurodollar outflows the RRR is reduced. At times, the central bank even refrains from issuing central bank bills. As with the period before 2008, from 2011 to 2013 it didn’t go well.

By the middle of 2014, the PBOC had added new capacities for more targeted bank liquidity, lending windows such as the MLF or SLF.

Here’s the thing, though. Chinese monetary authorities after relying heavily on tools like the MLF in 2016 and 2017 are no longer as much interested in them. They increased the RMB part of the central bank balance sheet to no avail.

This then left the RRR as China’s main monetary line of defense against deflationary forces in 2018 and going forward. Given its obviously poor performance as an inflation-fighting instrument, why would anyone be optimistic on its chances of succeeding now? You could try to make the case that it could possibly be more effective when used in reverse, but that’s just silly.

China’s Communists aren’t silly; they are authoritarian monsters, meaning they have to be pragmatic for their own survival especially where economic growth (the peasant-to-middle class pipeline) is concerned.

China’s Premier Li Keqiang announced today that the national growth target for 2019 was reduced to a range between 6.0% and 6.5% real GDP expansion. This is lower still than 2018’s mandate for “about” 6.5%, which came in as expected at exactly 6.5%. What are the chances China’s GDP sees the top end of its newly set corridor? If the bottom, this would be the lowest growth since the eighties.

Perhaps a significant sign, China’s Communist leadership appears to have given up entirely targeting both retail sales growth and fixed asset investment.

Li warned:

China will face a graver and more complicated environment as well as risks and challenges that are greater in number and size. China must be fully prepared for a tough struggle.

This is not a new theme except if you have been listening exclusively to the wishful thinking of Western Economists and central bankers. Since the 19th Communist Party Congress (the political apparatus, a separate entity from the National People’s Congress) held in October 2017, government officials have been consistent about this “tough struggle.” There never was globally synchronized growth at least not at a level that would meaningfully change the world’s economic circumstance.

Behind everything is the same thing. Keynes was right. Inflation is one monetary evil, but its twin is far, far worseAt least with inflation things are moving, Chinese peasants are progressed up into the middle class even if it is more expensive when they get there. 

Deflation, however, is when everything stops; Dante’s Hell was freezing cold. It doesn’t have to be all at once like in the early thirties, this can be a prolonged affair dragging out across more years than anyone cares to remember. The frog isn’t being slowly boiled, it is being progressively frozen. It is now almost completely frigid, too cold to be able to leap out of the icy water. Stuck here without any other options, it must conserve its energy as best it can and hope that it can somehow survive.

If given a choice, you pick the heat of high inflation over this every day of the week; until you realize it isn’t your choice. It never really was.

end

China/Canada

China is furious with Canada so they banned shipments of Canadian Canola to China.  The Huawei arrests is certainly have an effect on Canada

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trade War Deepens: China Bans Canadian Canola Shipments Amid Soaring Diplomatic Tensions

Canada’s largest grain processor said Tuesday that Beijing has canceled its registration to ship canola seed to China, fueled by the arrest of a top executive for the Chinese tech giant Huawei, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The move suggests that rising diplomatic tensions between China and Canada are damaging commerce between the two countries. Tensions have already crushed hopes that senior officials in Ottawa and Beijing would develop further trade ties.

The import ban against Richardson International Ltd. is due to a series of Chinese non-compliance notices declaring some shipments of canola seed from Canada were contaminated with “hazardous pests.” Canadian officials disputed that claim.

“I am very concerned by what we’ve heard has happened to Richardson. We do not believe there’s any scientific basis for this,” Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said in Montreal.

“We are working very, very hard with the Chinese government on this issue.”

Revoking the import license comes as Canada is advancing an extradition hearing for Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou. She was arrested in early December by the Canadain government at the request of the Trump administration, where she was wanted on fraud charges.

The Canola Council of Canada, located in Winnipeg, told the Journal that Richardson is a major player in the country’s canola seed to China.

Derek Brewin, a professor of agriculture economics at the University of Manitoba, said the Canadian agricultural and food manufacturing company easily controls 20% of total Canadian export capacity for grains and oilseeds.

The canola council said 40% of the industry’s exports end up in China.

Canada’s agriculture department said the country’s top agricultural export to China is canola seed, with sales valued at $2.05 billion per annum.

A spokesman for the council said, “We are aware of challenges our exporters have faced shipping to China—these are concerning as they create instability and add costs.”

The Journal didn’t say, but the ban went into effect March 01 – as per a document of approved shippers was published on the website of the Chinese customs administration.

The vice president of Richardson told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. (CBC) that their troubles with the Chinese are due to Wanzhou’s arrest.

“We think this is part of a larger Canada-China issue, and we hope it gets resolved expeditiously,” Jean-Marc Ruest told CBC.

China’s ban on Candian canola hits western Canada the hardest.

Front-month contracts for Canola Vancouver have plummeted by more than 17% since China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports last summer.

The industry is worried that canola prices might collapse further, which could spark a farm crisis, similar to what is occurring in the US.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

The EU and the ECB activate a currency swap line as they brace for a “no deal Brexit”
(courtesy zerohedge)

EU, ECB Activate Emergency Currency Swap Line To Brace For ‘No Deal’ Brexit

Worried that there might be a shortage of euros available to UK exporters and banks if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, the BoE and the ECB have agreed to create an emergency currency swap line to ensure uninterrupted access to cash.

As the Independent explains, this means the Bank of England will offer to lend euros to UK banks on a weekly basis while the ECB will receive pound sterling from the BoE in exchange for euros.

BoE

It means that even if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal, the country will still remain reliant on Frankfurt to help safeguard the financial system.

“Activation marks a prudent and precautionary step by the Bank of England…supporting the functioning of markets that serve households and businesses,” the ECB said on Tuesday.

There had been some speculation that the ECB wouldn’t agree to the swap line, but the central bank affirmed on Tuesday that it would move ahead with plans to create one.

Meanwhile, BoE Gov. Mark Carney on Tuesday reiterated his warning that a no-deal Brexit would be an “economic shock” and that “some disruption of cross-border services” would be possible.

While Britain’s financial system is ready for the volatility that could be unleashed by a no-deal Brexit, the BoE warned that companies in the rest of Europe might face some disruptions, according to Reuters.

While Britain had ensured that its borrowers could access financial institutions on the other side of the English Channel if London and Brussels fail to strike a deal in time for Brexit, other EU countries had not been as active, it said.

Here’s more from the Independent.

In its latest health check of the financial system, the BoE also warned that “some disruption to cross-border services is possible and, in the absence of other actions by EU authorities, some potential risks to financial stability remain.

“Although these would primarily affect EU households and businesses, they could also be expected to spill back to the UK in ways that cannot be fully anticipated and mitigated,” it added in a statement.

However, the BoE said banks, insurers and other key parts of the UK financial system had to a large extent protected themselves from the risks of Brexit.

The remarks came in minutes published on Tuesday of the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) meeting held on 26 February.

Britain has had similar swap lines with four other central banks since 2013: The US, Canada, Japan and Switzerland. Swap lines are intended to ensure that the liquidity taps remain open during a crisis.

end

Are we heading for another QE?

(courtesy RanSquawk)

ECB Preview: Here Comes TLTRO?

Submitted by RanSquawk

On Wednesday at 1:45pm CET/7:45am EST, the ECB’s latest monetary policy decision is due. Here is what consensus expects:

  • Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
  • Inflation and growth forecasts set to be lowered
  • Will the Bank provide any further clarity on potential new TLTROs?

PREVIOUS MEETING: The most recent policy announcement saw the Central Bank stand pat on rates as expected and maintain their guidance on rates and reinvestments. Focus for the press conference largely centred around the Bank’s assessment of the growth outlook for the Euro-area with policymakers opting to classify risks as now being ‘tilted to the downside’ vs. their prior view of ‘moving to the downside’. President Draghi stated that the implications for monetary policy from the assessment tweak were not discussed. Elsewhere on the policy front, the matter of TLTROs was raised during the press conference with Draghi stating that subject was brought up by several officials but no decision was taken as the monetary case for a fresh round needs to be presented.

ECB MINUTES: ECB minutes provided little in the way of fresh insight with policymakers concluding that any decision taken on the TLTRO should not be taken too hastily and should serve policy objectives. Furthermore, the account revealed that the Bank  perceives that current market pricing is in-line with their current guidance; something that Draghi alluded to in his January press conference. From a growth perspective, central bankers believed that near-term growth momentum is likely to be weaker than earlier expected, the extent of this conviction will likely be a key source of focus for the March staff economic projections.

SOURCE REPORTS: Since the previous press conference, various source reports have painted a conflicting view about the Bank’s attitude to fresh funding measures with one report suggesting that TLTROs are seen as a priority, whilst another stated that the governing council sees no urgent need to unveil a fresh round of funding and questioned the necessity in doing so at all. On forward guidance, sources suggested that some ECB policy makers are hesitant to change interest rates guidance as it would impact the term of the next ECB President.

ECB RHETORIC: Since the prior meeting, notable communications highlights include comments from ECB’s Coeure who stated that the economic slowdown is stronger and broader than they expected, the inflation path will be shallower, adding that a new TLTRO is possible and the ECB are currently discussing it. Elsewhere, Chief Economist Praet noted he expects near-term projections to be revised lower but what counts is the medium-term and they see positive and negative factors there, adding that a rebound is likely but too early to tell by how much. ECB-hawk Nowotny suggested that the ECB has no conclusions yet on TLTRO, adding that if the slowdown is driven by one-offs, TLTRO may not be needed; decision to be made later than March. Interestingly, Nowotny also stated that he sees a discrepancy between ECB guidance and market expectations. Finally, ECB President Draghi gave little away during his Parliamentary hearing at the end of January by reiterating that significant monetary policy stimulus remains essential.

DATA: From a growth perspective, Q4 2018 Eurozone GDP printed at 0.2% with RBC suggesting that early signals indicate that Q1 2019 will see only a marginal improvement at best. On the inflation front, February Y/Y CPI ticked higher to 1.5% from 1.4% amid a minor uptick in energy prices and unprocessed food, however, the ‘super core’ metric slipped to 1% from 1.1%, highlighting the weakness in underlying price developments. The latest batch of PMI readings saw composite PMI for Feb rise to 51.9 from 51.0 (prelim 51.4) with Pantheon Macro noting a “robust headline, signalling that services continue to show relative resiliency in the face of the sustained slowdown in manufacturing”. On the labour front, Unemployment ticked lower once again in January to 7.8% from the prior 7.9%.

POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO ECB FORWARD GUIDANCE (INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT)

RATES: With markets currently only pricing in a circa 50% chance of a 10bps deposit rate hike this year, the Bank’s current “at least through the summer of 2019” has continued to be brought into question. Despite source reports suggesting that some at the Bank are reticent to change rate guidance before the current President Draghi is replaced in October, an adjustment at some stage appears to be inevitable, the timing of it though, remains a subject of debate. UBS expect the ECB to acknowledge that rates will likely stay on hold until 2020 at their June meeting, whilst also floating the potential for the Bank to consider a tiered rate system  to alleviate the pressure of negative rates on Eurozone banks. Elsewhere, ING states that changing forward guidance to “interest rates to remain at their current levels at least until the end of the year” is a no-brainer but, this will not necessarily be  implemented at this meeting. This time around, RBC suggest that Draghi is likely to “qualify the ECB’s guidance to indicate a start later than September 2019 by stressing its state contingent aspect – i.e. the ‘at least’ as well as ‘as long as necessary’ parts of  the key sentence”.

ASSET PURCHASES: No changes expected on this front given the recent conclusion of the Bank’s PSPP; a view backed by Rabobank.

GROWTH/TRADE: Given that the last two meetings have seen tweaks on this front, it is unlikely that policymakers will make another adjustment to their assessment of the risk outlook with the latest incoming data neither disappointing enough to justify an even more pessimistic outlook or seeing enough of a pick-up to prompt a reversal in their recent adjustments. Instead, market participants will be looking at the Bank’s growth projections (see below) for greater clarity on the ECB’s current assessment of the risk outlook.

INFLATION: No changes expected on this front. Danske Bank expect the ECB “to hold on to its narrative that ongoing labour market improvements and rising wages will eventually push up underlying inflation pressures.” However, Danske highlight that the minutes from the January meeting note increasing worries at the Bank over the missing transmission from wages to consumer prices.

STAFF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS:

  • Current ECB HICP forecasts: 2018 at 1.8% (prev. 1.7%), 2019 at 1.6% (Prev. 1.7%), 2020 at 1.7% (Prev 1.7%), 2021 at 1.8%
  • Current ECB real GDP forecasts: 2018 at 1.9% (prev. 2.0%), 2019 at 1.7% (Prev. 1.8%), 2020 at 1.7% (Prev 1.7%), 2021 at 1.5%

Growth: On the growth front, as detailed above, Q4 2018 Eurozone GDP printed at 0.2%, which thus fell short of the ECB’s forecast of 0.4%. RBC note that, although growth is forecast to pick-up in H2, the ECB’s quarterly growth rates of 0.5% look too optimistic given current headwinds. Furthermore, the Bank will likely need to play catch-up to their latest guidance on growth (altered in January), which is yet to be accompanied with a round of economic projections. With this in mind, consensus looks for a downgrade to the Bank’s 2019 and 2020 growth outlook, with 2021 to be subject to little in the way of material changes, if at all.

Inflation: From an inflation perspective, as highlighted earlier in our report, price pressure remains a key concern for the Bank.
Morgan Stanley opines that although the narrative on inflation might not change in the statement, adjustments to staff projections on this front are likely. More specifically, Nomura note that, considering the cut-off point for staff estimates, the oil price  ssumption underpinning the forecasts is likely to be around 8% lower than the one seen in December. This, allied with the weaker growth outlook, Nomura argues could see 2019 and 2020 forecasts lowered. Nomura also highlight the importance of the 2021  forecast, which they explain acts as a useful indicator of the Bank’s stance on policy normalisation, which, if close to 2%, would suggest the ECB believes it remains on track.

Please see below for Danske Bank’s expectations grid for ECB staff projections

TLTRO

TLTROs have been a focus for the market as they are seen as a useful tool for the Bank to help soothe the transition of policy normalisation and shield some of the more fragile Eurozone economies (particularly Italy) this year. At the January meeting, the matter of TLTROs was raised during the press conference with Draghi stating that the matter was brought up by several officials but no decision was taken as the monetary case for a fresh round needs to be presented. Since then, (as discussed above), one source report suggested that TLTROs are seen as a priority, whilst another stated that the governing council sees no urgent need to unveil a fresh round of funding and questioned the necessity in doing so at all. In terms of expectations for this week’s meeting, UBS suggest that given the likelihood of the Bank’s acknowledgement of lower growth and limited inflationary pressures, policymakers will send a strong signal on Thursday that it will soon offer a new TLTRO with a final decision and details potentially to be announced in April. Elsewhere, SocGen look for a formal announcement in June, adding that the decision is far from clear-cut, Barclays look for an unveiling between March and June, whilst Goldman Sachs look for an announcement this week with details to follow at a later point. In terms of how the TLTRO could be offered to lenders, RBC highlight that the main sticking point for the  ECB is more about the design of the operations, rather than whether to offer them or not. RBC explains that one issue facing policymakers is whether or not to offer a fixed rate, which would be at odds with the ECB’s current setting of expected rate hikes, or a floating rate, which could potentially lower the incentives for participation. Furthermore, Rabobank also highlight the potential debate between whether TLTROs will come with the precondition of increased lending or maintaining the current stock of loans; Rabobank favour the latter.

MARKET REACTION

Please see below for ING’s scenario analysis

end

The rumours are true;  The ECB is poised to launch QE as a TLTRO

(courtesy zerohedge)

EUR Stumbles After Report ECB Poised To Launch TLTRO

The question we posed last night whether or not the ECB will finally unveil another TLTRO during its press conference tomorrow, may have been answered.

According to a Bloomberg trial balloon floated this morning, and citing “people with knowledge”, the ECB is set to cut its economic forecasts by enough to “justify another bout of loans for banks”, according to people with knowledge of the matter. In other words, bad news is most certainly good news… if only for risk assets.

Bloomberg notes that the latest projections show extensive downgrades for inflation and economic expansion in 2019, with an assumption of a pickup toward the end of the year, while the inflation outlook will be cut through 2021.

New forecasts in hand, “ECB policymakers will debate on Wednesday the design of fresh funding operations based on their existing targeted lending program, with a focus on how long they should last and at what interest rate”, the sources said, although Bloomberg hedged by saying that not all details of a decision will be available this week, and in fact, despite the revisions, “a full announcement on new loans may not come on Thursday.”

In other words, something may or may not happen tomorrow, especially since Draghi will be again forced to explain how after years of negative rates and QE, Europe is again on the verge of a crisis, as the TLTRO was previously framed as an event that would only take place “only in case of a serious economic shock“. Indeed, Draghi has in the past framed TLTRO extension discussions around having a monetary-policy case, rather than simply pandering to the needs of individual lenders.

In response to the report, the euro stumbled after bank stocks erased their decline, with Euro Stoxx Banks Index rising 0.2% after earlier sliding as much as 1 percent following the latest money laundering allegations. However, the EUR promptly rebounded with Credit Agricole noting that the TLTRO is “at least partly expected by now” given the price action in EUR and EGB yields and rates.

In other words, there is a distinct risk that not only has the market fully priced in a new TLTRO (alongside Trump’s trade deal with China), but that the ECB’s admission an “economic shock” is imminent – hence the need for another TLTRO – could send risk assets sliding in what would be a nightmare outcome for Mario Draghi who may soon be facing another “whatever it takes” moment.

END

Germany/Deutsche bank

Our good friends over at Deutsche bank lost another 750 million dollar in equity trading this quarter

(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Lost $750 Million Trading Equities

Amid further resignations and increasingly loud calls for some kind of merger/nationalization of Germany’s anchor bank, the news for Deutsche Bank just keeps getting worse.

Bloomberg reports that Deutsche estimates that its equities trading unit lost about $750 million last year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

As the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing “internal calculations”, the bank at one point considered closing its entire equities operation, which understandable since the U.S. equities unit reportedly hasn’t turned a profit for many years. Furthermore, Deutsche Bank’s equities unit, headed by Peter Selman, recently saw two further senior departures, as the writing on the wall started to emerge.

Ironically, or perhaps nots, DB shares are flying higher after this report – is bad news, good news since it accelerates the bailout?

We suspect this only ends one way…

Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing has privately said that he may need to rethink his current turnaround plan if he concludes that it’s insufficient, and Bloomberg reports that several large Deutsche Bank investors at the time asked for tougher cuts to the U.S. operations.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Today, the OECD slashes GDP global growth forecasts and warns that it will probably get weaker

(courtesy OECD/zerohedge)

OECD Slashes Global GDP Forecast, Warns “Outcome Could Be Weaker Still”

The world is rapidly headed for a recession unless something changes, according to the latest gloomy warning from the OECD overnight, which has joined the IMF in warning that the global economy is suffering more than expected from trade tensions and political uncertainty which are clouding prospects particularly in Europe, where the OECD slashed its 2019 growth outlook to just 1%, almost half its prior 1.8% forecast.

“The global expansion continues to lose momentum,” the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said as it downgraded the 2019 GDP forecast of almost every Group of 20 nation including the US, China, UK and euro area, while it now expects Italy to be headed to worst year since 2013. “Growth outcomes could be weaker still if downside risks materialize or interact.”

 

The OECD’s growth guillotine was not exactly a surprise as these are the organization’s first forecasts in almost four months, and it is forced to play catch-up with developments in a world in which central banks U-turned from hawkish to dovish to reflect a sharp slowdown from Japan to the US. Indeed, as Bloomberg notes, in that period little has gone right for the world’s biggest economies: Weakness in the euro area and China are proving more persistent, trade growth has slowed sharply and uncertainty over Brexit has continued.

Perhaps because it came about a month after the IMF’s own latest forecast cut, the OECD’s numbers were even more downbeat than the monetary fund’s, particularly the euro region and the U.K., where the organization warns that things could get even worse.

It isn’t just doom and gloom, however, with a modest silver lining peaking between the clouds in recent weeks, with some modest signs that the global economy may be turning the corner as the U.S. and China are making progress on ending their lengthy trade dispute (if only for market-moving reasons), while JPM’s global composite Purchasing Managers Index rose in February for the first time in three months.

“Getting a clear steer on global growth is very difficult right now, but at least, the latest PMIs have some positives,” HSBC economist James Pomeroy said in a note on Wednesday.

More importantly, and the reason why the OECD’s gloomy forecast may be stale already is that central banks led by the Fed have already responded to the changed circumstances, and the ECB may follow as soon as tomorrow. On Tuesday China was forced to lower its goal for economic growth this week, rolling out another bevy of fiscal stimulus to boost its economy.

Whether or not central bank intervention will successfully reverse the economic slowdown remains to be seen. For now, however, the dismal OECD outlook goes against hopes that sources of weakness at the end of 2018 would prove temporary, creating more headaches for policy makers who may now need to find more combative solutions with limited room for maneuver on the fiscal and monetary side.

The OECD seemed especially worried about Europe’s near-recession, noting that while central banks should stay in expansionary mode, the group called for structural reforms and fiscal stimulus in the European countries that could afford it (cough Germany), saying that “monetary policy alone cannot resolve the downturn in Europe or improve the modest medium-term growth prospects.”

As noted above, Europe suffered the brunt of the downgrades, and while the US outlook was lowered slightly, the U.K.’s 2019 forecast was cut to 0.8 percent from 1.4 percent, and Germany’s to 0.7 percent from 1.6 percent.

Predictably, the OECD also singled out Brexit as one of the persistent threats, warning that If the U.K. doesn’t secure a deal, it sees a risk of a near-term recession, with “sizable negative spillovers” on other countries.

Finally, China – which two days ago announced its new growth target range of 6- 6.5% from “around 6.5%” – remains another major concern as a sharper slowdown there would have “significant adverse consequences for global growth and trade”, just as we warned in out 2019 year ahead preview.  The OECD now expects China’s expansion to slow to 6 percent next year from 6.2 percent in 2019.

end

OH Oh! The Canadian loonie tumbles after the Bank of Canada warns that there is uncertainty about future rate hikes

(courtesy zerohedge)

Loonie Tumbles After BOC Warns There Is “Increased Uncertainty” About Future Rate Hikes

Another central bank appears to be throwing in the towel on any future rate hikes.

Just days after Canada reported an abysmal December GDP print, which declined for the second consecutive month and sparked fears of an imminent technical recession…

… the Bank of Canada today kept its rate unchanged at 1.75%, as expected, however the statement was so dovish it shocked the market, which sent the Loonie tumbling.

In keeping the rate flat, the Bank of Canada acknowledged the “mixed” data picture, which suggests “increased uncertainty” about timing of “future rate increases”, and said lower than neutral interest rates are “warranted” given outlook, confirming that just like the Fed, the BOC is now also on “pause.”

Indeed, in borrowing a page from the Fed’s playbook, the BOC said the “outlook continues to warrant a policy interest rate that is below its neutral range” and added that “with increased uncertainty about the timing of future rate increases, Governing Council will be watching closely developments in household spending, oil markets, and global trade policy.”

The BOC also said that given the “mixed” data picture, “it will take time to gauge the persistence of below-potential growth and the implications for the inflation outlook.”

Finally, admitting that it too was too optimistic heading into 2019, the bank said that “the slowdown in the fourth quarter was sharper and more broadly based” as “consumer spending and the housing market were soft, despite strong growth in employment and labour income. Both exports and business investment also fell short of expectations.”

Following the sharply dovish announcement, the loonie tumbled  further and Canadian bond yields extend declines: the USD/CAD jumped +0.6% at ~1.3426 after rising as much as 0.7% as stops were triggered, rising as high as 1.3441.

The good news for loonie bulls? At least the BOC isn’t discussing rate cuts just yet. That said, Rabobank notes that it does “not expect any further rate increases this cycle and expect the BoC to cut rates 25bp in 2020 Q2.”

end

Global Economy Is Sinking Fast, And It Will Take The US With It

Mac Slavo points out the obvious:  the global economy is sinking fast

(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTplan.com

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Although many declared the deceleration in the economy in December to be a “soft patch” that we’ve somehow recovered from, others aren’t so sure.  The rest of the global economy is slowing down and sinking at a fairly rapid rate, and the U.S. economy will likely go with it.

According to a report by Forbes, there is no “economic immunity” for the United States once the global economy is in tatters. The report points to many problems in the global marketplace that could signal a major downturn for the economy pushing the U.S. ever closer to an unavoidable recession. When the U.S. consumer goes on strike (quits buying things for any reason), the odds of a recession skyrocket. So,it would behoove market watchers to stop ignoring the growing potential for a significant economic slowdown.

Japan’s latest employment data was very poorwhile China’s high and rising bond defaults are still showing a contraction although the February number (49.9 PMI – still slightly in contraction) moved up from the 48.3 January disaster.Other problems are arising in the Eurozone as well.  The manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) of 49.3 is the lowest since 2013.  The latest U.S. trade deficit number was a record –$79.5 billion.Exports fell -2.8%. This confirms the weakness in foreign economies. Perhaps the only good news is that Germany did show decent January retail sales growth. That means consumers spent more of their disposable income.

The U.S. did not fare well when it came to auto sales either.  New car sales in February were at an 18-month low. Part of the problem is that new and used car prices are now at record highs, and bank credit has tightened making getting into a brand new vehicle simply too expensive for many. A report earlier in February also indicated that auto loan delinquencies are now at highs seen right before the Great Recession.

Just on the heels of the United States government’s debt surpassing $22 trillion comes the news that there are now a record number of Americans who are behind on their record high car payments. According to CNBC, more than 7 million Americans are at least 90 days behind on their auto loans, according to the New York Fed. This is a major concern, considering the average car payment in the U.S. is now $523. –SHTFPlan

Forbes states that it may be too soon to come to the conclusion that the U.S. has made it through the “soft patch,” or December of 2018’s market downturn.

Remember, it’s a lag, not a decoupling…

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

Venezuela

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1303 DOWN .0002 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES MIXED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.86  DOWN .040 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3141    DOWN   0.0015  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3376 UP .0021 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1303 Last night Shanghai composite closed UP 47.85 POINTS OR 1.57%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 76.00   POINTS OR 0.26% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.57%/EUROPEAN BOURSES MIXED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 129.47 POINTS OR 0.60% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED MIXED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 76.00 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 47.85 POINTS OR 1.57% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.57%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 129.47 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1286.30

silver:$15.10

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.71% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.08 DOWN 0  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.92 UP 5 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.43% DOWN 3   in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.12% DOWN 5   IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.61 DOWN 10    POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 149 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES  TO +.13%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.48% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1318 DOWN   .0012 or 12 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.71 down .163 OR YEN UP 16 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3137 DOWN.0018( POUND DOWN 18  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 86 basis points to 1.3443

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7112    0N SHORE  (DOWN)

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7167(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4348

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.00%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.69 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.07 DOWN 3  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.84 DOWN 3 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP  11.00 OR 0.15%

German Dax : DOWN 30.06 POINTS OR .26%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 7.69 POINTS OR  0.15%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 41.00 POINTS OR  0.44%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 126.85 POINTS OR 0.61%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.29 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 65.52 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.92  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.11 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 11 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO +.13 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.22

 

 

BRENT :  65.91

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.68.

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.06..

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1312 ( UP 6   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.75 DOWN .115 (YEN UP 12  BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.85 DOWN  1 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3176  UP 20 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4348

the Russian rouble 65.96   DOWN .16 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 16 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3435 DOWN 79 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7110  (ONSHORE)/CLOSED FOR THE WEEK

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7177  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.13%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 132.70 POINTS OR 0.51%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 70.44 POINTS OR 0.93%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.69 CLOSED UP 0.95 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.606%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.607

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Small Caps Suffer Biggest Drop Since Mnuchin Massacre, Bonds & Bullion Bid

It’s not fair…

Chinese stocks are soaring but US markets are not…

 

Chinese stocks just won’t stop…

 

UK’s FTSE continues to bounce..

 

US equity markets were down notably today led by Small Caps – notably there was barely a bounce in today’s action…

 

Trannies are now down 9 days in a row – the longest losing streak since Feb 2009.

Small Caps are down around 3% this week – the worst 3-day drop since Dec 24 Mnuchin Massacre lows, breaking below the 200DMA…

 

S&P is now well below the key 2800 level…

 

GE was clubbed like a baby seal once again as the early year hype gives way to reality…(filling the gap from 1/30)

 

Biotechs were battered again today…

 

Notably credit markets have snapped decidedly wider in the last few days (HYG is down 5 days in a row)…

 

Credit decoupled from stocks once again…

 

Treasury yields were lower once again…

 

Erasing more of last week’s sell-off…

 

The Dollar Index (DXY) tested 97.00 once again and failed…but ended marginally higher (for the 6th day in a row)

 

EM FX suffered notably today…

As BRL, TRY, ARS, and MXN all got hit

Yuan was notably weaker overnight…

 

Cryptos clung on to yesterday’s gains and once again Litecoin was well bid…

 

Commodities were all modestly lower on the day…

 

WTI ended the day lower but the machines did not like the post-EIA inventory drop and bid oil back up…seemingly keen to keep WTI above $56…

 

 

Finally, is the delusion ending? Global money supply has started to rollover…

Stocks S

 

END

MARKET TRADING

 

ii)Market data/

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

USA trade deficit soars to 621 billion dollars, the highest in 11 years.  The goods deficit hit a record 891 billion dollars only to be saved a little from service surplus of 270 billion dollars.  The monthly deficit soared to 59 billion dollars. The trade deficit with China also increased dramatically to  419 billion dollars.  The reason for the increase: bigger imports of goods and that happened due to tax cuts.

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Trade Deficit Soars To $621BN, Highest Since 2008 As Goods Deficit Hits Record

Confirming last week’s advance goods data which saw the biggest trade deficit on record in December, moments ago the BEA reported that the U.S. trade deficit soared to a 10-year high of $621 billion in 2018, jumping by $68.8 billion, or 12.5 percent in the year, and crushing Trump’s pledges to reduce it, as tax cuts boosted domestic demand for imports while the strong dollar and retaliatory tariffs weighed on exports.

The data release was originally delayed a month by the partial government shutdown. January figures are due March 27.

The reason for the massive jump in the deficit is that while exports increased $148.9 billion or 6.3% as shipments of goods including crude oil, petroleum products and aircraft engines increased. However, imports increased even more, some 7.5%, or $217.7 billion, on purchases of items from pharmaceuticals to computers, along with services such as travel.

For goods only, the deficit with the world surged to a record $891.3 billion in 2018 from $807.5 billion the prior year. The merchandise deficits with Mexico and the European Union also hit records. Meanwhile, the surplus in services kept rising, hitting a record $270.2 billion last year.

On a monthly basis, the December deficit soared from $50.3 billion to $59.8 billion, also a 10-year high and far worse than the consensus estimate of $57.9 billion.

How did the deficit soar so much in one month? Simple: less exports, more imports, as exports fell 1.9% from the prior month, the biggest decline since early 2016, to $205.1 billion, on lower shipments of civilian aircraft, petroleum products and corn.

  • December exports were $205.1 billion, $3.9 billion less than November exports. December imports were $264.9  billion, $5.5 billion more than November imports.
  • As a result, the December increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $9.0 billion to $81.5 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.5 billion to $21.8 billion.

Also worth noting: the December goods deficit hit an all time high.

Ironically, the biggest culprit was China, as the deficit with Beijing – the target of Trump’s trade war – hit a record $419.2 billion in 2018, following the previously noted plunge in Chinese imports from the US.

Ironically, as Bloomberg notes, while Trump has repeatedly cited the deficit as evidence of the failure of his predecessors’ trade policies, the gap has surged by $119 billion during his two years as president. Even if he completes an accord to end the tariff war with China, substantially shrinking the deficit may prove tough as cooling global growth weighs on exports while domestic demand keeps driving shipments from abroad.

Some more records:

  • The December goods deficit ($80.4 billion) was the highest on record.
  • The December non-petroleum deficit ($79.1 billion) was the highest on record.
  • December exports of foods, feeds, and beverages ($9.6 billion) were the lowest since 2010 ($9.3 billion).
  • December imports of foods, feeds, and beverages ($12.6 billion) were the highest on record.
  • December imports of automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($32.1 billion) were the highest on record.
  • December non-petroleum imports ($200.2 billion) were the highest on record.

And so Trump is trapped: if he concedes the trade war to China just to keep his precious stock market higher, the deficit will continue rising; if on the other hand, Trump pushes for a hard line on trade, the S&P – which has now priced in the end of the trade war – will tumble. The ball is now in Trump’s court which option to choose.

end
Trump may nationalize 5G Networking and it may be an important pivotal position in his 2020 re election bid
(courtesy Kern/SafeHaven.com)

Trump Looks To Nationalize 5G

Authored by Michael Kern via Safehaven.com,

Trump apparently wants to control 5G in a ‘state-run’ socialist twist to American capitalism – and now there are indications that it could become part of the 2020 election campaign.

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign team renewed its controversial pitch on nationalizing the country’s 5G network. In other words, the government would have control of 5G airwaves and lease access to private wireless providers.

Kayleigh McEnany, a Trump 2020 campaign spokeswoman, told Politico that a wholesale 5G market would drive down costs and provide access to millions of Americans who are currently underserved.

“This is in line with President Trump’s agenda to benefit all Americans, regardless of geography,” McEnany said. Trump’s 2020 campaign manager, Brad Parscale, has been also pushing for a plan that would involve a nationwide 5G network.

Last month, President Trump himself wrote on social media about 5G, saying that “American companies must step up their efforts, or get left behind.”

“I want 5G, and even 6G, technology in the United States as soon as possible. It is far more powerful, faster, and smarter than the current standard,” he tweeted. (We’ll let the fact that there is no such thing as 6G technology slide for the sake of election campaigning). 

Not everyone’s on board the nationalization train, though. There are some in the White House who would prefer the industry lead this game. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, for one, believes wireless companies should manage the build-out of 5G. Feeling the heat over this talk of nationalization, even McEnany and Parscale later walked back their calls for government control of 5G, saying they were expressing their own personal opinions—not Trump’s.

The idea of a wholesale network is being pushed by little known wireless company Rivada Networks. However, it should be noted that Peter Thiel and Karl Rove, who both have close ties to the Republican party and are strong President Trump supporters, have invested in Rivada.

While this new campaign is ostensibly aimed at reducing costs and providing rural residents with fast internet, motives aren’t always what they appear to be.

We heard about this plan last year, too, when the administration thought it would test the waters and gauge public sentiment. It’s wasn’t very successful, taking a lot of heat from critics in the industry and from the Federal Communication Commission (FCC). It also got crushed by lawmakers on both sides of the gaping political divide. It was quickly shoved under the rug.

But China keeps coming back around.

A memo from a National Security Council official, obtained by Axios, insisted that a strong, government-controlled 5G network is necessary as a bulwark against Chinese threats to America’s economy and cyber security.

“China has achieved a dominant position in the manufacture and operation of network infrastructure…China is the dominant malicious actor in the Information Domain,” the memo read.

In the meantime, U.S. mobile providers such as  AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, for example, are investing heavily in this area and have promised to make 5G a reality later this year.

However, they are still lagging behind Chinese companies, Huawei primarily, one of the biggest phone makers and telecommunications kit providers in the world and the company that has been the target of U.S. lobbying over national security and economy concerns.

The US administration has recently announced it is considered barringAmerican companies from using equipment from Chinese companies and called on its allies to do the same.

So, the elephant in the 5G room is China—not “underserved” American farmers—however, nice that might sound for the 2020 campaign. Much of China’s power comes from the fact that the government controls everything. But the suggestion is that if America wants to beat China, it has to become China, and nationalization is the first step.

end

SWAMP STORIES

Nadler is a man in search of a crime and that will be the Democrats modus operandi for the next 2 years.

(courtesy Sara Carter)

Democrats Search For A Crime To Punish Trump And Americans Who Voted For Him

Authored by Sara Carter,

The House Judiciary Committee’s Democratic Chairman Rep. Jerrold Nadler is a man in search of a crime. Nadler and his colleague House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff have moved the conversation from Russian collusion and are now promising to investigate virtually everything connected to President Donald Trump.

Mind you, we the tax payers will be paying for these investigations and it will drag America and the administration into another two years of endless witch hunts.

Yes, a witch-hunt.

Can you imagine if someone despised you so much that all they did day in and day out was search for something, anything, that would get those around you to doubt your intentions. Imagine having to fight every single day of your life against never ending accusations. Even when those accusations are later proven false it won’t matter because the original lie has already been thoroughly disseminated far and wide among the population.

Why are Nadler, D-NY, and Schiff, D-CA, promising these investigations? Because they want to impeach Trump. It’s just that simple. They also want to send a message to the American people: your vote really didn’t matter because in the end it’s Congress that holds the power.

Think about that. There was never any evidence of crime that called for Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to establish a special counsel. Yet, he did. In fact, he wrote the letter authorizing Trump to fire former FBI Director James Comey. Comey would’ve been fired the first day had Hillary Clinton been president.

However, obstruction charges are at the top of the Nadler’s list of investigations. He also promises to investigate all of Trump’s financial dealings and past business associations.

Nadler and Schiff are creating their own special counsel.

Why? The pair realize that Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report will not do the damage they were hoping it would. Both Democratic leaders, supported by their party, realize that Mueller has found no evidence of a conspiracy with the Russians.

It has left believers like Schiff, Nadler and many former Obama Administration officialswho’ve worked diligently over the past several years to destroy Trump, seething.

They do not want to go on the defensive.

Nadler and Schiff don’t want to explain that their narrative has been debunked. They do not want Americans to look too close because in the end what will be discovered is that the crimes they are accusing others of committing are the ones they themselves have committed.

So what do they do? They fish for a crime, use the media to propagate their lies and spread malicious rumors. Those crimes can be anything from obstruction of justice, process crimes or financial crimes. The lawmakers will use the power of America’s purse. They will investigate Trump’s children, those who support him and those who work closely with him at the White House.

However, remember this: It is the American people, liberty and the principals endowed in our Constitution that will pay the heaviest burden.

Nadler announced his probe on Monday into potential “obstruction of justice.” He will lob accusation, after accusation, against the Trump administration and his family. He will seek documents and communications from over 60 individuals connected with the White House. He will look for that needle in a haystack for as long as it takes.

Nadler and Schiff will conduct what they describe as thorough investigations. They will keep these lengthy investigations going to buy time on the clock until they get close to the Democratic National Convention.

Nadler will do so at the cost of our nation. Don’t be fooled. He doesn’t care about the American people or justice. In the end, this all about ‘getting back’ for the Democrats.

Not getting back at Trump but at the American people who voted for Trump. This isn’t about truth and justice – those who oppose Trump don’t care about those fundamental principals.

Nadler is already setting the stage.

“We are going to initiate investigations into abuses of power, into corruption … and into obstruction of justice,” said Nadler.

“It’s our job to protect the rule of law.”

This isn’t about the rule of law.

If the rule of law was important to the Democrats, they should be aghast at the abuse of power that has occurred within the Obama Administration.

The weaponization of the intelligence community, leaking of highly classified information to the press, gross negligence in the handling of classified information by Hillary Clinton, unmasking of Americans, malfeasance within the FBI, abuse of power within the Justice Department, plans by Rosenstein to wear a wire to record the president and the proposed plan to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove him from power.

Instead this is what Nadler is accusing the president of:

“It’s very clear that the president obstructed justice…

Before you impeach somebody, you have to persuade the American public that it ought to happen.”

GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy said it himself on Monday, “they’re setting a whole new course because there’s no collusion so they want to build something else.”

They do want something else: they want to find a way to coup the president before the eyes of the American people.

Possibly only future historians will truly understand what is happening to our nation. But for now, we sit on a precipice of a divided nation. This division is being egged on by lawmakers who care more about destroying Trump than seeking truth and justice.

The issue that matters most is the rule of law and guiding principals that make our nation great must take precedence.

Without it, the America we know may disappear into the annals of history. If that happens, it’s “we the people” who will have only ourselves to blame.

end

 

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

At 8:42 ET, Boston Fed Prez Rosengren said the outlook for another rate hike depends on the economy.  If growth beats the Fed’s outlook, rate hikes are on the table.  Rosengren said the Fed doesn’t expect a recession any time soon.  He also said what saner angels fear: low rates give the Fed less room to act.

At 9 ET, Dallas Fed Prez Kaplan unnerved traders when he voiced concern over US debt levels.  Kaplan warned that corporate debt could amplify a slowdown; the need to moderate future debt could create a headwind; more US debt means less capacity for investment and higher debt levels makes the US economy (and the Fed) more interest-rate sensitive.

Fed’s Kaplan says U.S. corporate debt a reason for rate hike pause

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-kaplan/feds-kaplan-says-u-s-corporate-debt-a-reason-for-rate-hike-pause-idUSKCN1QM1OO?il=0

Fred Hickey @htsfhickey: Are these Fed people brain dead?  Can’t raise rates because of too much corp. debt? Reason there’s too much corp. debt is because Fed has suppressed rates to such low levels it encouraged taking on of debt (all kinds). Want to reduce debt problem: RAISE RATES

Kaplan waded into the controversy that most Fed officials, US solons and Street pundits want to ignore: the debt bond.  It is the reason for financial repression and probably the rise of socialist fever in the US.

At 7:20 ET, this appeared: Pompeo says China trade deal has ‘got to be right’

Trump will reject a U.S.-China trade deal that is not perfect, but the United States would still keep working on an agreement, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a media interview…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/pompeo-says-china-trade-deal-has-got-to-be-right-interview-idUSKCN1QM1JM

When Trump abruptly ended his summit with Kim, ala Reagan with Gorbachev in 1986, his primary intention might have been to influence trade negotiations with China.

Trump has turned his trade abuse sword to India and Turkey.

 

U.S. President Donald Trump says he intends to remove India and Turkey from a trading arrangement known as the “generalized system of preferences,” or GSP, which grants breaks on tariffs to developing nations to help boost their exports. The decades-old set-up, also offered by the European Union and 11 other countries, is intended to help poorer countries grow and improve living standards. It’s the latest target in Trump’s bid to shake up world trade…

     Trump says India — the largest beneficiary of the program in 2017 with $5.7 billion in imports to the U.S. given duty-free status — does not give “equitable and reasonable” access to its markets. He says Turkey is no longer a “developing country based on its level of economic development.”…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-05/the-trade-preferences-trump-s-threatening-to-pull-quicktake

Explosive New Docs Reveal Weissmann’s Misconduct in Enron Case

The records expose efforts by special counsel attorney Andrew Weissmann to intimidate witnesses and to interfere in the attorney-client relationship of a cooperating witness…

    In any event, although it is true that Weissmann’s conduct in the Enron case did not reach the level of a constitutional violation, that doesn’t mean it was appropriate. Nor was Weissmann’s disconcerting behavior isolated: Weissmann has demonstrated a “reckless win-until-reverse modus operandi that has destroyed countless lives. Weissmann’s tactics sent four Merrill Lynch executives to prison, until a federal appellate court overturned their convictions and freed the men—but not before upending their lives.”…

    Weissmann also destroyed the former accounting giant Arthur Andersen by pushing a phony criminal case. The Supreme Court eventually overturned it unanimously, but only years later, after the damage had been done…  [“It could happen to you!”]

http://thefederalist.com/2019/03/05/explosive-new-documents-reveal-andrew-weissmanns-misconduct-enron-case/

-END-

I WILL SEE YOU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
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