MARCH 14/COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY TOMORROW SO THE CLOWNS ORCHESTRATE A RAID ON GOLD/SILVER TODAY: GOLD DOWN $13.60 TO $1295.50//SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TO $15.17//THE PRESTIGIOUS GERMAN IFO CUTS GERMAN GDP GROWTH TO ONLY .6% FOR 2019//BRANDON SMITH A MUST READ… AND THEN SARA CARTER ALSO A MUST READ…//

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1295.50 DOWN $13.60 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.17 DOWN 30 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1296.10

 

silver: $15.19

 

Tomorrow is options expiry for all USA equities in the Dow and Nasdaq.  Gold/silver is effected due to the gold/silver equity shares but also most importantly the price of GLD/SLV.

Thus expect some minor whacking and then we start in earnest the expiry of the comex/LBMA options beginning next week.

 

Comex options expiry ends:  Wednesday March 26/2019

London/LBMA expires Monday March 31/2019.

The crooks continue with their whacking right in front of the authorities/regulators despite the criminal probe of precious metals manipulations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

MARCH

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ (0.00 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  336 NOTICES FOR 33600 OZ  (1.0451 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

128 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 640,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 5292 for 26,460,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3865:UP $1

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3876  UP 10

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 0/0

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1502 CONTRACTS FROM 189,768 DOWN TO 188,266 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S STRONG 6 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.  TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE MUST HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AGAIN TODAY.

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  1083 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1083 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1083 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1083 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.415 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 6 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

AND NOW: 26.805 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

21,412 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 21,412 CONTRACTS) OR 107.060 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2141 CONTRACTS OR 10.706 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  107.060 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.46% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          472.45    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1502 DESPITE THE 6 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD   CONSIDERABLE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1083 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE STRANGELY LOST A SMALL SIZED: 419 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (DESPITE THE GOOD ADVANCE IN PRICE)

i.e 1083 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1502 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.47 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.940 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 134% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 128 NOTICE(S) FOR  640,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/AND NOW MARCH: 26.805 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY ANOTHER CONSIDERABLE 3370 CONTRACTS UP TO 533,400 WITH THE RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $11.10//YESTERDAY’S TRADING). HOWEVER…….

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  GOOD SIZED 4862 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0CONTACTS  APRIL 4862 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 533,400. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE  A HUGE SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8,232 CONTRACTS: 3370 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4862 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 8,232 CONTRACTS OR 823,200= 25.60 TONNES.

YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $11.10.AND WITH THAT, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 25.60 TONNES??.

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 72,813 CONTRACTS OR 7,281,300 OZ OR 226.48 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7281 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 226.48 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 226.48/2550 x 100% TONNES = 8,88% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1100.4 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3370 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($11.10) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4862 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4862 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 8,232 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4862 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3370 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 25.60 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS HUGE  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $11.10 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX????

 

 

 

we had:  0 notice(s) filed upon for 00 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN  $13.60 TODAY 

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

A SURPRISING CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.846 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1502 CONTRACTS from 189,768 DOWN TO 188,266 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 1,083 FOR MAY AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1,083 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1502 CONTRACTS TO THE 1083 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE  OBTAIN  A LOSS   OF 419  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2.095 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY AND NOW 26.805 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1083 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.27 POINTS OR 1.20% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 43.94 POINTS OR 0.15%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 3.22 POINTS OR 0.02%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .33%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7245 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 58.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.71 for Brent. Stocks inEurope OPENED GREEN 

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7245 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7318 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)China/Last night:

China’s plunge protection team continues to come to the rescue of China and it seems to be backfiring as their volatility explodes..(opposite to the USA which sees volatility low.  The USA are good at manipulating volatility as well as stock markets

( zerohedge)

ii)the Chinese yuan slides after China’s jobless rate increases along with industrial production growth subsiding.  Not a pretty sight
( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK/WEDNESDAY NIGHT

Today’s vote is whether to delay Brexit or not:

( zerohedge)

ii)Parliament rejects amendment calling for a 2nd referendum.  Now we await the vote on a delayed exit
(courtesy zerohedge)

iiiGERMANY

Not good:  as we have indicated to you throughout the month, Germany’s economy is faltering.  Now the IFO institute cuts German 2019 GDP forecast for the entire year at only .6%.

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)The following is your most important commentary of the day and I strongly believe that Brandon Smith is correct in almost everything he states.  He believes (and I) that the USA will still have two more rate hikes and we may see one of those on March19//March20. He believes that the increase in rates will bring down the entire system and then we will need a reset….

a very important read..

( Brandon Smith…)

ii)When you look at the container/shipping industry you can get the feel of the global slowdown.  The container shipping companies are certainly having their troubles

( zerohedge)

iii)A very important commentary from Simon Black.  He correctly states the major problem facing the world: the marginal utility of  debt is falling…they need more debt to get that one dollar of growth.  That is why all the finances in the world are failing:
( Simon Black/SovereignMan)

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)VENEZUELA/

NEXT NIGHTMARE:

Crude oil is now running into homes’ tap water

(courtesy Paraskova/OPilPrice.com)

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)With power outages, family members from abroad could not wire in money into Venezuela.  Thus  only physical USA paper money is used and that is a small amount available.  Vendors are witnessing their vegetables etc rot

what a mess for Venezuela.

( Agence France-Press/GATA)

ii)A must read…30,000 dollars per oz of gold and 3,000 dollars per oz for silver is predicted due to the huge amount pf printing and derivatives.

(Egon Von Greyerz)

iii)Stefan Gleason comments that the huge rise in Palladium price may portend a silver mania

a must read.

(courtesy Stefan Gleason)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//early this morning

The Trump/Xi meeting delayed to at least April: sends futures tumbling

(zerohedge)

 

 

 

ii)Market data

a)Import/Export prices surge in February but are still stagnate year over year. However what is important is that China is continually sending her deflation over here

( zerohedge)

b)Hard data:  new home sales continues to slump in January.  Home sales are a key component in GDP calculations.
and thus another indicator of a slump in the USA economy
(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)A good Bellwether for the economy:  huge derivative player GE has their shares plunging on a dismal 2019 outlook

( zerohedge)

b)As expected the “bomb cyclone” hits over 70 million Americans in the centre of the USA as hurricane winds and blizzard likes conditions play havoc in that part of the USA.
( zerohedge)

c)JPMorgan capitulates: it no longer expects rate hikes in 2019. I guess it is just Brandon Smith and I would believe that they will raise rates

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a  i) Oh this one is good:  the parents in the college admission scandal may face addition tax fraud charges for submitting phony donations.

( zerohedge)

a  ii)  It begins: the first of many class action lawsuits against various universities involved in the admissions scandal

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)The Fed’s failures are mounting due to income disparity

(courtesy Danielle DiMartino Booth)

Booth is a former Fed official

c)The Mueller investigation is coming to an end: The pit bull Weissmann is stepping down

(courtesy zerohedge)

d)Trump wants his wall and will veto the Senate measure on border security

( zerohedge)

e)The following is a dandy!! The Lynch testimony is still not publish but Sara Carter has reviewed the testimony of Lynch and it is explosive:  it reveals bias and intent for failing to give Trump defensive briefings as to the supposed Russian influence into his campaign.  We are not sure if Hillary got this briefing..something which she paid for and thus not necessary. However if would have been nice if the Congressman/Senators would have asked Lynch is she did provide the defensive briefings to her:

(courtesy zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN ROSE BY CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 3370 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 533.400 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($11.10) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING).

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4862 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 4862, FOR JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS AND FINALLY DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4862 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 8,232 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4862 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3370COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ONLY::8,232 contracts OR 823,200 OZ OR 25.60 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MARCH and here the open interest stands at 37 contracts  for a loss of 1 contracts.We had 1 notices served upon yesterday so we  GAINED  0 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL NILoz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their effort.

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after  March is the  active delivery month is April and here the OI lost by 9516 contracts down to 264,304 contracts. The non active month of May picked up 60 contracts for a total of 347 open interest.  After May, the next active delivery month is June and here the OI stands at 180,513 having gained 9599 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 00 OZ. (0.0031 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1502CONTRACTS FROM 190,698 DOWN TO 188,266(AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED DESPITE A 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 197 HAVING LOST 220CONTRACTS.

WE HAD 292 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 72 CONTRACTS OR 360,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER FOR OVER 3 YEARS IN THAT THE TOTAL OZ STANDING INCREASES FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE STANDING.

TODAY THE  SILVER COMEX IS IN STRESS.!! WE HAVE HAD FOR THE 10TH CONSECUTIVE DAY QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS ANOTHER INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

 

 

AFTER MARCH, WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.  HERE: APRIL FELL TO 787 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 18 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 1331 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 136,849 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE WITNESSED A MASSIVE SHORT COVERING AT THE BANKS WITH RESPECT TO SILVER COUPLED WITH CONTINUE QUEUE JUMPING……SOMETHING IS SCARING THEM TO DEATH!!!

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE LOST A SMALL 419SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1357 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1083 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  419CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY???. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 128 notice(s) filed for 640,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  262,902  CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  263,890  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Initial standings for  MAR/GOLD

MAR 14 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

 

nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 nil OZ
(0.0000 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
37 contracts
(3700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
336 notices
33600 OZ
1.0451 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

ii) Into everybody else:  nil

total gold deposits: nil oz

 

no gold arrives from outside.

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil oz

 

we had 0  adjustments…

FOR THE MAR 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (336) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (38 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 37,500 OZ OR 1.1664 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of MARCH

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (336 x 100 oz)  + {38)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 37,500 oz standing OR 1.1664 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH.

We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL ADDITIONAL oz WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING TO ACCEPT A FIAT BONUS.

 

HOWEVER, THE GOLD COMEX (AND SILVER COMEX) ARE NOW IN STRESS AS THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO FIND PHYSICAL METAL.

SURPRISINGLY NO GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 11.388 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  366,127.915 oz or  11.388 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,035,697.176 oz 249.943 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON

MARCH 2018 VS MARCH 2019 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 1/2018: TOTAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 2.1524 TONNES

THE FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE: MARCH 31/2018:  1.6114 TONNES AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 29 MONTHS 105 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH

MAR INITIAL standings/SILVER

MAR 14 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
93,808.154 oz oz
Int Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
597,920.300
oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
128
CONTRACT(S)
345,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
69 contracts
345,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5292 contracts

(26,460,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.825 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.12% of all official comex silver. (147 million/300.8 million)

 

i) Into CNT:  597,920.300 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  597,920.300    oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of Int. delaware:  93,808.154 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 93,808.154    oz

 

we had 1 adjustment

i) out of CNT:

349,154.800 oz was adjusted out of the customer CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  95.669 million

total dealer + customer silver:  301.681 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MARCH 2019. contract month is represented by 128 contract(s) FOR  640,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5292 x 5,000 oz = 26,460,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (197) and the number of notices served upon today (128 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 5292(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR( 197) -number of notices served upon today (128)x 5000 oz equals 26,805,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained  72 contracts or an additional 360,000 oz will stand as bankers queue jumped in order to receive badly needed physical metal. The silver comex is in deep stress as this is the 10TH day in a row of a huge gain in silver oz standing. WE ALSO WITNESSED HUGE SHORT COVERING BY THE BANKERS AS THEY SEEM TO BE SCARED ABOUT SOMETHING!

 

 

 

 

 

ON MARCH 1.2018 WE HAD 24.670 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STAND FOR DELIVERY. BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE DELIVERY MONTH, 27.190 MILLION OZ STOOD AS QUEUE JUMPING IN THE SILVER COMEX ARENA HAD BEEN THE NORM FOR QUITE A WHILE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  68,907 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 51,070 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 51,070 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 255 million OZ  35.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.66% (MAR14/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.73% to NAV (MAR14/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.66%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.04/TRADING 12.66/DISCOUNT 2.88

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT AGAIN OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.53 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $1.70: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.87 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY AND THIS GOLD HAS BEEN USED IN THE WHACKING PROCESS YESTERDAY AND TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD ANOTHER $12.50 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33 TONNES

FEB 26  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

 

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.99 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/ A SURPRISE GAIN (DEPOSIT) OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.50 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

 

 

 

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MAR 14/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 772.46 tonnes

*IN LAST 559 TRADING DAYS: 162.59 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 459 TRADING DAYS: A NET 4.230 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 1.17 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.846 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 516,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: STRANGE!! TWO TRANSACTIONS!!  IN THE MORNING A WITHDRAWAL OF 703,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307,800 OZ/ IN THE AFTERNOON: A DEPOSIT OF 1.56 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY FINALLY RESTS AT 309.160 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS//A  SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 610,000 OZ//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ/

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT; NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/RESTS AT 309.984

FEB 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ/

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS: SURPRISINGLY A DEPOSIT OF 1.688 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

 

MAR 14/2019:

 

Inventory 310.848 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.16/ and libor 6 month duration 2.68

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .52

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.46%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.86

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.40

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Invest In Gold:

188 Internet Shutdowns In 2018 Show Why Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection

– Internet’s “off switch” increasingly used to curb political and economic freedom
– Internet shutdowns were seen 188 times throughout the world in 2018 (see table)
– Democratic India experienced 154 internet shutdowns in just 30 months
– Technologically advanced EU countries Spain and Estonia experienced shutdowns
– Gallup poll shows people more worried about cybercrime than violent crime
– Governments use terrorism and war as reason for ‘internet kill switch’ powers
– Own physical coins and bars rather than ETF or digital gold on a single platform
– Internet shutdowns show physical gold is ultimate protection

Editor’s Note: A version of this post was published in November 2017 and was one of our more popular market updates and hence why we decided to update it today

There was a sharp increase in internet shutdowns in 2018. And 2019 started in the same vein with increasing concerns that the tactic may become increasingly popular and used by embattled governments suppressing economic and political freedoms throughout the world.

Internet shutdowns were popularised in China and have become widespread in democratic India in recent years. They have even spread to the EU and have been used in Spain and Estonia in recent years.

During protests over the 2017 independence referendum in Catalonia, Spanish authorities reportedly throttled internet access and blocked websites. Russia is believed to have blocked the encrypted messaging app Telegram last year taking down the service that ended up negatively affecting dozens of other websites.

Overnight Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram were down for a period of hours. Users across the world including the US, Japan, New Zealand and parts of Europe were affected by Thursday’s outage and faced difficulties accessing the social network giant Facebook and its apps Whatsapp and Instagram for several hours.

The very real risk is an increasingly global one, with multiple shutdowns also recorded in Europe, South America and Africa in the last three years.

UNESCO is warning that the number of internet shutdowns is increasing worldwide. According to Statista.com when reporting data provided by digital rights platform accessnow.org, “internet access has been curbed 116 times in 30 countries since January 2016.”

“Internet shutdown: An intentional disruption of Internet or electronic communications, rendering them inaccessible or effectively unusable, for a specific population or within a location, often to exert control over the flow of information.” – Access Now.

One question that so many ask when first hearing about bitcoin is ‘what if the internet stops working?’ Bitcoin and crypto proponents scoff and point out that there is no singular ‘off button’ i.e. it would be near impossible.

According to ‘father of the internet’ Tim Berners-Lee, this is true:

“The way the internet is designed is very much as a decentralised system. At the moment, because countries connect to each other in lots of different ways, there is no one off switch, there is no central place where you can turn it off.”

Try telling that to the one billion plus people in India who have experienced over 54 internet shutdowns in the last two years.

Or those in Egypt who on January 27th 2011 could no longer get online as the government shut down the internet in response to the pre-Arab Spring protests.

Even in the EU, ten years ago technologically advanced Estonia appears to have been a victim of Kremlin-sponsored cyber warfare, when Estonians found they could no longer access their bank accounts. Individuals and companies could not use their computers for the simple daily tasks that we take for granted today – such as email.

The above three examples are not rare occurrences. In the last two years alone there have been 116 situations where governments or state sponsored hackers seem to have found the ‘off button’ for the internet across 30 countries. That’s not counting all of the incidences when there have been other cyber attacks that have ‘merely’ affected vital internal systems and disrupted key infrastructure for large sections of society.

 

So whilst countries might be more connected than ever, that isn’t much help to the citizens who find themselves very much disconnected whether on a mass or individual scale. Internet shutdown is definitely possible and it is happening:

“There are several ways to shut down the Internet. One way is to make sure that when you type in a web address, such as dw.com/mediadev, your Internet service provider doesn’t allow you to find the underlying IP address. Another way is when an Internet service provider messes with the routing tables and removes key details so that packets of information traveling on the web aren’t allowed to travel to their final destination. Governments are using increasingly sophisticated methods to disrupt communications”

This isn’t just a disaster for those using bitcoin, this is a disaster for anyone who relies on an internet connection be it for communication or accessing their finances. Many in the West look at internet controls as something that is exclusive to developing nations or those more on the totalitarian-regime end of the political spectrum.

Sadly this is not the case. As you will see government-sanctioned internet shutdown and cyberterrorism are ever-present across many nations. The result? Individuals must protect their own freedom and safety of their assets as the authorities may have other priorities.

Internet shutdown increases government powers

As the examples of India, Estonia and Egypt show internet shutdown is very much possible. It was the Egyptian shutdown of 2011 that prompted many other governments to realise the powers they could attain:

Until then, many governments had assumed it was not possible to turn off internet access to their entire nation, due to the decentralized nature of the network. But soon after, governments across the globe educated themselves about AS numbers and internet routing, and started using their power to set up systems that would allow them to order network shutdowns.

What was originally only intended to be used in more extreme circumstances has quickly devolved into officials using their powers for all sorts of questionable – and often political – reasons.

Internet shutdowns can be either at the will of the domestic government or a form of financial or military warfare from an outside authority or organisation.

India is where we see the highest number of authorised internet blackouts. Here government policy states that whilst such action requires the highest-level official in charge of domestic security – the Ministry of Home Affairs for the whole country or a state’s Home Department official – to sign off on any shutdown a junior member can shutdown the internet for a full 24-hours should gaining permission be unfeasible.

Many in Western countries might dismiss such government behaviour as perhaps a feature of developing nations or despot-led countries. Not so. In the UK  the Communications Act 2003 and the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 gives internet suspension powers to the Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport. This can be done either by ordering the shutdown of operations by internet service providers or by closing exchange points.

When questioned about such a power a government representative said that it would have to be a very exceptional circumstance that led to the shutdown of the internet. However, those circumstances have not been specified and therefore cannot be challenged. Who is to say from one government to the next or one perceived threat to the next what an ‘exceptional circumstance’ is?

One person’s exceptional circumstances differ to another’s. For example, it’s interesting that in India the majority of shutdowns happen in Kashmir, the region which is heavily involved in a  political border dispute. The same goes for Turkey which since 2016 has allowed authorities to implement an internet ‘kill switch’ to “partially or entirely” suspend internet access when deemed necessary.

In most countries government-sanctioned internet shutdown is now part and parcel of policy. More often than not they are justified by their use in protecting citizens. However, as Deji Bryce Olukotun, Senior Global Advocacy Manager at Access Now explains:

There is no evidence that shutting down the Internet helps prevent terrorist attacks or stops them while they’re occurring.

Internet access: a human right

There are 3.5 billion internet users around the world, approximately 50% of the global population. It is therefore unsurprising that internet use is increasingly considered to be a human right by many.

“As the Internet is a key enabler of many fundamental rights, including freedom of speech and expression, such frequent disruptions have been a cause for concern,” states InternetShutdowns.in.

“They threaten the democratic working of nations, and also point to the gradual normalization of the mindset that permits such blanket restriction on Internet access.”

Where there is internet access managing your day and business online is just an accepted fact of life, particularly in developed countries. When indicators such as the political, economic and social impact of the web, connectivity and use are considered the UK and US are ranked in the top three for web use by citizens.

The Internet helps us realize our human rights, including freedom of expression and privacy. When governments shut off the Internet, people can’t communicate with loved ones, run their businesses or even visit their doctors during an emergency. – Deji Bryce Olukotun

One would also assume therefore that our governments understand the importance of internet security and have several measures in place to prevent the likes of military-level cyber attacks or DDOS attacks from terrorist organisations.

Not so, the most progress that has been made by Western governments in recent years has been in regard to how much control they have over the internet as shown by the aforementioned policies.

Do companies and governments even care?

Ten years ago Estonia experienced what appears to have been a state-sponsored cyberattack of unimaginable proportions. Citizens found they were unable to access bank accounts, websites, social media and infrastructure began to fall apart such as traffic lights no longer working.

This was not down to an internal failure. It was quickly clear that there had been an attack from outside the country. It was a Distributed Denial of Service Attack — an orchestrated swarm of internet traffic that swamps servers and shuts down websites for hours or even days.

The result for Estonians citizens was that cash machines and online banking services were sporadically out of action; government employees were unable to communicate with each other on email; and newspapers and broadcasters suddenly found they couldn’t deliver the news.

The Estonian government reacted in a manner that other governments should have been proud to follow. They used it as a step to up foreign policy and gain immense understanding and training on all matters of cybersecurity.

The attack on Estonia may have been Russia telling the rest of the world that it had the capabilities to bring a country to its knees should they be displeased.

Internet shutdowns are serious. A cyberattack or a government-sanctioned internet shutdowns due to a perceived threat could have dire financial consequences:

The wheels of finance and banking also could grind to a halt if an event compelled all U.S. Internet Service Providers to cut off all Internet access. A shutdown of the stock markets, where billions of dollars are exchanged daily, might prove especially crippling.

But this isn’t just about disaster at a government and national level. Consider businesses and the impact on their operations. How many organisations assume internet access is a given? How many base their business offering on the existence of customers being online?

Dangers of Digital Gold

Consider companies that offer digital gold an an investment or store of value. These electronic platforms offer investors access to pooled gold in large gold bar format.  Investors do not know which part of a particular gold bar they own. Sometimes such investments are mis-labelled as allocated gold.

Not only this, but these platforms are “closed loop systems”. This means liquidity and pricing are dependent on a single platform, website and company. The investor is in effect “captive” as they would be to a bank account or having to deal with one single stockbroker. Should the company be acquired by a bank, venture capitalists or other institution, the spread between buy and sell and overall costs could rise. The client would have no choice but to accept the increased charges.

Source: Bullionvault.com (June 2017)

 

How would this work in the event of a cyber attack and or internet shutdowns? Your digital gold would be about as much use as the cash in the bank account you can’t access, as ATMs would also be down and online banking is not online.

We are in no way casting aspersions as to the good name of BullionVault.com or other digital gold platforms. We have a lot of respect for them and what they have achieved. However, we view them as a great way for people to speculate on gold, silver and platinum, rather than as providers of financial insurance and safe haven long term investments.

The point we are making is that investors concerned about systemic risk, including cyber risk, should consider the cyber and electronic threats to their investments – with whatever provider they may be with.

Higher rate of victimisation: don’t be a statistic

67% of Americans are more worried about cyberattacks than physical theft and attacks. Why is this? Most likely because few know where to turn in order to protect themselves. It is not an irrational fear.

chartoftheday_11735_the_crimes_americans_worry_about_most_n

Even if you live in a country that was not victim to an internet shutdown, consider the following relevant information:

– According to a study by Incapsula 30.5% of non-human web traffic is compromised of ‘bad bots’. These bots are responsible for stealing data and distributing malware.
– Symantec’s 2017 Internet Security Threat Report reported that more than $3 billion has been stolen from businesses in the past three years.
– The United States’ Computer Crime and Intellectual Property Section (CCIPS) report that more than 4,000 ransomware attacks have occurred every day since the beginning of 2016. A 300% increase over 2015, where 1,000 ransomware attacks were seen per day.
– This is a major financial problem. The Brookings Institution found that the global economy lost at least 2.25 billion euro ($2.4 billion) from Internet shutdowns over a one year period from 2015-2016.

Individuals must take their own precautions, both at a computer security level but also in terms of personal assets.

More and more people need the Internet to connect and make a living, and cannot afford to lose access on a routine basis. The worst thing we can do is sit and do nothing. – Deji Bryce Olukotun

Internet shutdowns and cybersecurity attacks compromise our democratic freedoms. The shutdown of the internet by governments should only be allowed in the most extreme of cases. Sadly as we see in the likes of India it is often used as a first response.

When our democratic freedoms are threatened it means our financial ones are also at risk. Many savers and investors consider these threats and choose to diversify their portfolios. They spread the risk and hedge their bets against such events.

This is a sensible first step, however it can be rendered pointless if your management of your assets is reliant on internet access. Gold has been bought by millions all over the world because of its role in protecting investors during times of war, financial hardship and economic disasters. It is only recently that the idea of cyber warfare and the misuse of this power by governments has become a point of consideration.

Gold is as relevant here as it always has been. But it is specifically allocated, segregated physical gold which must be considered.

Owning gold coins and bars either in one’s possession or in allocated and segregated storage will protect people and will be accessible and liquid should an internet shutdown be triggered in your country tomorrow.

Related Content

Yahoo Hacking Highlights Cyber Risk and Increasing Importance of Physical Gold

Cyber Attacks Show Vulnerability of Digital Systems and Digital Currencies

Sell Gold Now – Time To Liquidate Gold ETFs, Pooled and Digital Gold

Digital Gold On The Blockchain – For Now Caveat Emptor

 

Avoid ETF and Digital Gold – Access 7 Key Gold Must Haves here

 

News and Commentary

Gold prices dip on dollar recovery, Brexit relief (Reuters.com)

Gold ends above $1,300 to score highest settlement of the month (MarketWatch.com)

Ifo institute cuts German 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% from 1.1% (Reuters.com)

Venezuela’s US invasion: the Dollar takes hold (France24.com)

May Said to Call a Meeting of Cabinet Before Vote: Brexit Update (Bloomberg.com)

Huge Pools of Dirty Money Are Europe’s Worst-Kept Banking Secret (Bloomberg.com)

Jeffrey Gundlach says the theory of unlimited deficit spending is a ‘crackpot idea’ (CNBC.com)

Brexit’s Poison Will Last for Years (Bloomberg.com)

BMO: Our Market Timing Model Is About As Negative As It Ever Gets (ZeroHedge.com)

The Global Economy Is a Time Bomb Waiting to Explode (TruthDig.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

13 Mar: USD 1,308.40, GBP 994.25 & EUR 1,158.20 per ounce
12 Mar: USD 1,296.95, GBP 986.85 & EUR 1,150.78 per ounce
11 Mar: USD 1,296.35, GBP 998.32 & EUR 1,153.49 per ounce
08 Mar: USD 1,294.10, GBP 989.34 & EUR 1,153.95 per ounce
07 Mar: USD 1,285.30, GBP 921.20 & EUR 1,144.17 per ounce
06 Mar: USD 1,285.55, GBP 978.82 & EUR 1,136.82 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

13 Mar: USD 15.52, GBP 11.80 & EUR 13.73 per ounce
12 Mar: USD 15.44, GBP 11.83 & EUR 13.72 per ounce
11 Mar: USD 15.29, GBP 11.74 & EUR 13.60 per ounce
08 Mar: USD 15.11, GBP 11.56 & EUR 13.48 per ounce
07 Mar: USD 15.07, GBP 11.47 & EUR 13.33 per ounce
06 Mar: USD 15.09, GBP 11.49 & EUR 13.36 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Buy Gold as Basel III Means “Central Banks and Banks Are Going To Be Buying Gold”
– Invest In Gold Or Bitcoin – Which Is The True Store Of Value?
– Silver Bullion Is The Portfolio Insurance To Buy Now
– EU Isn’t Ready for the Next Recession
–  JPMorgan Is Bullish on Gold as a Hedge Against Rising Inflation
– Gold – It Might Be Different This Time
– Euromillions Winners To Invest In Gold In 2019?
– Gold Still on a Long Term Track to Reach $2,000 An Ounce

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

With power outages, family members from abroad could not wire in money into Venezuela.  Thus  only physical USA paper money is used and that is a small amount available.  Vendors are witnessing their vegetables etc rot

what a mess for Venezuela.

(courtesy Agence France-Press/GATA)

Power outages make dollar supreme in Venezuela

 Section: 

Venezuela’s U.S.Invasion: The Dollar Takes Hold

From Agence France-Presse
via France24, Paris
Wednesday, March 13, 2019

https://www.france24.com/en/20190313-venezuelas-us-invasion-dollar-takes…

CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro may be fiercely opposed to the “imperialist” United States. But in one regard, a U.S. invasion is already happening: the dollarization of his South American country.

Dollar bills are mixed in with wads of the near-worthless bolivar in markets. Long lines form for an opportunity to buy dollars. Shops offering scant and desperately sought basic items are increasingly demanding dollars as payment.

… 

 

The adoption of the US currency had been creeping in for months, as Venezuela’s jaw-dropping inflation — projected to be 10 million percent this year, according to the IMF — meant the use of the bolivar was largely restricted to purchases by debit cards or bank transfers.

But with an unprecedented power blackout since last week, electronic transactions were knocked out, and Venezuelans turned to the only option left: the greenback.

“There was no power, and when it did come back, we had connection problems with the card terminals and the banks. People turned up with dollars, and from there you do a deal,” the owner of a Caracas bakery, Martin Xabier, told AFP.

“Everybody is doing that around here,” he explained, indicating his working-class district of Catia in the capital’s west and a line of a dozen people outside his shop.

… Cash is king

In the more upmarket eastern district of Altamira, another line stood in front of a small grocery store that did business behind a locked security grate.

“We only take cash, people! Bolivares or dollars!” the manager declared.

An old woman started crying. “I don’t have anyone to send me dollars. What can I do?” she said, saying she was there to buy milk for her grandson and the bolivares she had were insufficient.

In a market in the nearby neighborhood of Chacao, the dollar ruled supreme.

“Many people are paying with dollars… We need to take cash only and people don’t have bolivares. Or if they have them they have to bring the banknotes in a wheelbarrow,” said Maria del Carmen Pereira, owner of a half-empty delicatessen.

But Franklin Garcia, who runs a small grocery store in the central La Candelaria neighborhood, said: “We aren’t seeing a lot of people, but they are coming with small banknotes, of $10 or $20.”

He said that, in any case, he had lost a lot of produce because the blackout ruined food kept in his freezer.

… ‘Irreversible’ trend

As of today $1 was worth around 3,000 bolivares, of which the biggest denomination was a 500-bolivar bill equivalent to around 17 U.S. cents.

The average Venezuelan salary has sunk to the equivalent of $6 per month. But much food and basic goods are imported, with a chicken for instance costing $3 or $4 in a Caracas supermarket.

The problem for millions of Venezuelans is they have no access to dollars, which is creating “extreme inequality,” according to Asdrubal Oliveros, head of the economic analysis firm Econanalitica.

Henke Garcia, head of another firm, Econometrica, said: “Dollarization has to do with inflation, that is the fundamental cause. This traumatic episode (the blackout) might have accelerated its uptake with people more apt to receive payments in dollars. The trend is now irreversible.”

… Lines for ice

Electricity supply was nearly back to normal in Caracas by Wednesday, which meant mostly stable but with some interruption. But in western parts of Venezuela, power was still out.

“Here everything is sold in dollars: cheese, bananas, bread, cellphone recharges, ice,” said Roxana Pena, a 26-year-old resident in the western oil hub of Maracaibo.

Her city, scene of much looting during the blackout, has witnessed lines of people that stretch for kilometers (miles) to spend $5 to buy blocks of ice needed to preserve fresh food.

“A lot of people don’t have anything to pay with,” sighed an elderly local, Margara Bermudez.

The United Nations estimates there are 3.4 million Venezuelans who have emigrated since the crisis in their country began. Many of them send remittances to relatives who remain, but substantial numbers of Venezuelans have no such financial lifeline.

Maduro “can’t guarantee water or power or medicines,” his opposition rival and self-proclaimed interim president, Juan Guaido, told supporters on Tuesday.

The bolivar “is no longer respectable money, able to buy food,” he said.

Maduro accuses Guaido of involvement in the blackout, imputing it to “cybernetic” and “electromagnetic” attacks by the U.S., which is one of some 50 countries recognizing the opposition leader.

Experts, however, believe the energy collapse is the result of mismanagement, corruption, and lack of investment under Maduro’s government.

* * *

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A must read…30,000 dollars per oz of gold and 3,000 dollars per oz for silver is predicted due to the huge amount pf printing and derivatives.

(Egon Von Greyerz)

3 DOZEN REASONS TO HOLD GOLD

Egon von Greyerz
March 14, 2019

The world financial system has been in a euphoric state since 2009. It seems that the Keynesians, like Krugman or the Modern Money Theorists (MMT) are right after all. All asset markets are near the highs and show little sign of changing direction. As Treasury Secretary Mellon said in September 1929: “There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue.” All that is required is more of the same medicine, more credit, more money printing to make a virtuous circle of eternal prosperity.

Clearly the Cassandras are all wrong with their pessimistic forecasts that never happen. The Greek Princess had the ability to forecast the future but her curse was that nobody believed her accurate predictions. (Cassandra article)

We modern Cassandras are in the same position. We are certain that the theories based on spending and borrowing yourself out of the biggest debt bubble in history are totally fallacious. We know that a debt problem cannot be solved by more debt. No one defined it more succinctly than Albert Einstein: “We cannot solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them.”

THE PARTY IS OVER

But sadly for the world, Cassandra will be right this time also since the party is over. The Time Bomb below says it all. Contained in the red bomb are all the explosive elements that will change the history of the world. Any single one of these risks is sufficient to trigger a collapse of the world economy. The combined explosive nature of all the risks will not only disprove MMT but create a world which will be a lot less pleasant to live in.

This cleansing of a sick financial system and a morally decadent world will be totally necessary to create new green shoots based on real, sustainable values. But the transition will create great suffering for the whole world.

THE WORLD NEEDS STATESMEN

In the final stages of a major super cycle, there is normally a total lack of clarity in the thinking of world leaders. But not only that, there is also a total lack of leadership. Right now this is exactly what we have. Countries normally get the leaders they deserve. The world is in desperate need of statesmen who can take uncomfortable decisions to get the world out of the mess it is in. But looking around the world, there is no statesman in any country. There are countries with strong leaders like Putin in Russia and Orban in Hungary but real statesmanship does not exist anywhere.

Look at France where Macron becomes more unpopular by the day. Soon every Frenchman will wear a yellow vest and it is already spreading to other countries. The French economy and financial system are weakening and the inequality between the rich and the poor has the seeds of yet another French Revolution.

Germany has been the biggest beneficiary of a weak Euro but in spite of that, the German economy is now deteriorating rapidly. Merkel’s socialist policies will have disastrous effects on the German economy in coming years, exacerbated by an immigration policy which will create a major economic and social disaster.

When Deutsche Bank (DB) collapses, which is probable, that will have repercussions not only for German banks but for the global banking system. DB’s derivative book of EUR 50 trillion is 15x German GDP. When counterparty fails, the Bundesbank and the ECB will need to print more Euros than during the hyperinflationary Weimar Republic. In addition, the Bundesbank and the German financial system are the biggest guarantors of the ECB and the Target2 lending to Southern European countries which are all likely to default on their commitments.

The UK leadership is extremely weak. Theresa May’s government is irresolute and divisive. They have spent 2 years solely trying to extricate itself from the EU. This issue has totally dominated UK politics at the expense of the economy. With 2 weeks left to Brexit-day, the UK is nowhere nearer an agreement with the Brussels elite who have consistently frustrated the process.

The US is bankrupt with a currency which is living on borrowed time. Trump had good intentions but has been shackled by the Deep State. When the biggest economy in the world collapses, it will have major repercussions on the world.

Every major country or continent in the world has got problems of a magnitude that will bring the country down. In addition to the above nations, this includes Japan, China, South America and many more.

FINAL SECONDS OF A GLOBAL MEGA BUBBLE

We must understand that the world has never faced risk of this magnitude ever. We are now in the very final seconds of the global mega bubble, the likes of which the world has never seen before. What will happen next will be worse than the fall of the Roman Empire, much worse than the South Sea and Mississippi Bubbles and will create a disaster that will dwarf the 1930s Depression.

GLOBAL DEBT UP 3X SINCE 2000

The problem is simple to define and is all based around debts and liabilities. At the beginning of this century, global debt was $80 trillion. When the Great Financial Crisis started in 2006, global debt had gone up by 56% to $125 trillion. Today it is $250 trillion.

Thus, in this century global debt has more than trebled. So far MMT seems to work. Just print and borrow more money and the economy will take care of itself. Einstein said it won’t work and the laws of nature also tell us that this is a saga that will have an unhappy ending.

PROTECTION IS CRITICAL

Rather than trying to figure out what the exact trigger will be, it is much more important to focus on how to protect yourself financially.

Gold has throughout history been the solution to a mismanaged economy based on deficits, debts and money printing. But it must be physical gold, stored outside the financial system in the safest jurisdictions and vaults. It is essential to have direct ownership of the gold and direct access. ETFs, futures, or part ownership of bars are not proper wealth preservation.

$30,000 GOLD AND $3,000 SILVER

The Krugmans and MMT fans will now get more than they ever asked for. Because the world will soon start the biggest money printing bonanza in history. Bearing in mind that total debt and liabilities, including derivatives are over $2 quadrillion, we could easily see similar or higher amounts of money printing. A recent KWN article by Lundeen projects $3,000 silver and $30,000 gold. Those are not unrealistic targets and are probably based on normal inflation. With hyperinflation, the future gold price is likely to have many more zeroes.

We must remember that we are holding gold primarily to preserve wealth since it is the best store of value and represents stable purchasing power. But gold is likely to do better than to maintain purchasing power for the simple reason that there will be a massive shortage of physical gold when the gold paper market blows up. This is why it is critical to hold physical gold, bars or coins.

I wrote about the Gold Maginot Line a few weeks ago which is at $1,350. This line has stopped gold since 2013. After a first attempt to break through 3 weeks ago, we are now in a small correction and gold is building momentum to break through the Line. Once through, it will go very quickly all the way through the old high of $1,920. Remember that this high has already been broken in many currencies, so it is not a major hurdle to clear.

3 DOZEN REASONS TO HOLD GOLD AS INSURANCE

For anyone who doesn’t understand the necessity of owning gold, just go through the list of risks in the Time Bomb. And once you have gone through it, go through it again and again and again. The list includes 3 dozen reasons why you need to hold physical gold as protection or insurance against unprecedented global risk.

Anyone who doesn’t own gold today mustn’t wait for the next move up to take place. That could be too late. Once the real move starts, it will be very difficult to get hold of gold at any price. At some point there will no physical gold on offer. The paper gold positions of banks and futures exchanges will see to that.

Central banks will also have major problems. Most of them have covertly sold their official holdings. And most of what they have left, they have leased to the market. That gold has gone to China, India and Russia and all the central banks have left is an IOU from a bullion bank that won’t be honoured.

CHINA’S INSATIABLE APPETITE FOR GOLD

With a guaranteed absolute mess in the world financial system, resulting panic in the gold market now is the very last chance to be protected.

Gold is today as cheap as it was in 1970 at $35 and in 2000 at $270:

Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland

end

Stefan Gleason comments that the huge rise in Palladium price may portend a silver mania

a must read.

(courtesy Stefan Gleason)

Palladium Pandemonium May Portend a Silver Mania Ahead

Stefan Gleason | Thursday, March 14th

In a once rare property crime now trending higher around the world, thieves are stealing precious metals from automobiles.

These opportunistic criminals don’t bother rummaging through glove compartments in the hope of finding stashed jewelry or gold coins. Instead, they go for the near certain score of exposed catalytic converters.

A car’s catalytic converter is attached to its exhaust system and converts toxic emissions into less harmful byproducts. It contains corrosion-resistant noble metals – typically platinum, palladium, and/or rhodium – in relatively small quantities.

Those relatively small quantities are becoming relatively more valuable, especially in the case of palladium. “Soaring palladium prices are inspiring an unusual band of criminals: catalytic converter thieves,” reported the Wall Street Journal.

In February, palladium prices spiked to a record $1,550/oz where they have remained.

Palladium Chart – March 12, 2019 (Chart)

Fears of a chronic supply deficit are prompting not only thefts of auto catalysts, but also panic buying of palladium by industrial users and abnormalities in futures and leasing markets including backwardation and double- digit lease rates.

Since early 2016, the palladium spot price has more than tripled – from just under $500/oz. to over $1,500/oz. Despite the huge move, demand for palladium continues to outstrip supply. The move may be far from finished.

However, long-term investors who are focused on finding value – who aim to buy low when markets are depressed and out of favor – likely won’t find palladium attractive at these lofty levels.

But they may find palladium’s recent tripling encouraging for the prospects of other metals that have been beaten down and overlooked by most investors.

Platinum, for example, now trades at an historically large discount verses its sister metal palladium. The discount (now close to $700/oz) is all the more interesting given that platinum is a viable substitute for palladium in catalytic converters.

Of course, automakers can’t switch to the cheaper precious metal on a dime.

In recent years, they have opted for palladium in most non-diesel gasoline vehicles. They’d have to re-tool their production process for platinum-based converters.

The longer platinum remains deeply discounted, the more switching can be expected to take place.

New demand for platinum would help close the price gap with palladium. Since both metals’ fortunes are heavily tied to automotive demand, they are also vulnerable to a potential downturn in auto sales due to recession – and longer term to growth in the market share of electric vehicles, which have no emissions systems.

Electric vehicle batteries do require other metals, including lithium, cobalt, and nickel. The computer- controlled electronic systems in today’s cars also contain some silver.

Meanwhile, the solar panel systems that alternative energy enthusiasts imagine will one day power every vehicle and home in the country are one of the fastest growing industrial sources of silver demand.

Unlike platinum and palladium, silver has a long history of use as money. Even though silver is no longer minted into coins meant for circulation, it is still sought after by investors in coins and other forms for wealth preservation, inflation protection, and possible future use in barter or trade.

Like platinum, silver looks extremely cheap when measured against palladium. Over the past three years while palladium has tripled in price, platinum has actually lost a few dollars. Silver is essentially unchanged over that period.

Silver is so cheap at under $15.50/oz. that even if it goes on to follow in palladium’s footsteps and triples in value, it will still sit below its former all-time high of $49.50/oz.!

What other asset class offers the opportunity to triple your money as a warm-up before prices break to new highs? Not stocks. Not bonds. Not real estate.

The value opportunity that now exists in silver is unique. But not unprecedented. Silver has been extremely depressed before…and gone on to post spectacular bull market gains.

If silver enters a mania phase like it did in the late 1970s, you can expect to see all sorts of headlines about supply deficits, panic buying among industrial users, rampant speculation in futures markets, a possible default on futures contracts for physical metal, thieves and scam artists coming out of the woodwork, and so on.

Right now the mainstream financial media isn’t finding much to write about in the silver market. Big banks and other institutional traders take out enormous short positions in the COMEX, confident that speculative “buyers” on the other side won’t demand to take delivery of physical metal.

The shenanigans that take place in rigged paper markets are just business as usual…for now.

But when real physical shortages emerge, the price suppression efforts on the futures markets may finally fail spectacularly. The most vulnerable market right now is palladium.

Comex Default

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report warns the COMEX could declare a force majeure because only 42,000 ounces of palladium exist in their vaults – only enough for 420 contracts.

Losses on palladium contracts gone bad could dwarf losses caused by catalytic converter thieves!

A similar leverage factor exists in gold and silver markets, where only a tiny fraction of futures contracts is covered by physical inventories. A futures contract on a precious metal does not amount to actual physical ownership.

The only way to make sure you participate fully in a bull market for a scarce metal is to own it in physical form… and secure it from thieves.

Stefan Gleason is President of Money Metals Exchange, a precious metals dealer recently named “Best in the USA” by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of the University of Florida, Gleason is a seasoned business leader, investor, political strategist, and grassroots activist. Gleason has frequently appeared on national television networks such as CNN, FoxNews, and CNBC and in hundreds of publications such as the Wall Street Journal, TheStreet.com, and Seeking Alpha.

-END-



iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

-END-

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7245/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7318   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 36.27 POINTS OR 1.20% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP  43.94 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 3.22 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.79/Euro FALLS TO 1.1299

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.38/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.16 and Brent: 67.71

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN  /OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.07%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.50% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.17%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.43: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.80

3k Gold at $1297.40 silver at:15.24   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.44

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.39 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0040 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1345 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.07%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.62% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.02%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4731

 

S&P Futures Slide, Global Rally Pauses As Trade Deal Optimism Fizzles

Having risen to session highs on the back of fresh global optimism over trade, a delay in Brexit and fresh hopes for a “goldilocks” economy (while ignoring China’s worst Industrial Production print on record), US equity futures slumped on Thursday as America and China were reportedly set to push back a key meeting on trade. European stocks trimmed an advance on the news, but remained higher while the pound fell as the Brexit saga rumbled on.

 

Following the meeting delay report, S&P futures tumbled from a loss to a gain while Treasuries pared a drop, the dollar gained and the yuan dropped.

 

Major European indices remained in positive territory, initially following the positive sentiment on Wall Street where the S&P 500 finished at a 5-month high and above the key 2800 level, although indices have since fallen off sharply from session highs following the previously noted report that the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi is delayed to at least April.  European miners fell with the Stoxx Europe 600 basic resources index sliding as much as 0.8%, as metals slide on the weak Chinese industrial data reported overnight, and after the U.S. and China were said to push back a key meeting on trade. Chinese economic data published this morning are “putting the brakes on the rise in metals prices,” Commerzbank analysts wrote: “China’s industrial production has lost momentum more significantly than expected. Although fixed-asset investments increased slightly, they remain at a low level.”

Earlier, Asian stocks were initially higher across the as the region took early impetus from the US, where sentiment was underpinned by favorable data and a pre-quad witching surge, although the risk tone was eventually clouded as participants digested another round of disappointing Chinese data.

As noted last night, this is how China’s February’s data dump looked like:

  • China Industrial Production YoY MISS +5.3% vs +5.6% exp and +6.2% prior
  • China Retail Sales YoY MEET +8.2% vs +8.2% exp and +9.0% prior
  • China Fixed Asset Investment YoY MEET +6.1% vs +6.1% exp and +5.9% prior
  • China Property Investment YoY BEAT +11.6% vs +9.5% prior
  • China Surveyed Jobless Rate WEAKER 5.3% vs 4.9% prior

This was the weakest Industrial Production growth since March 2009 and Retail Sales growth was hovering near its weakest since May 2003. But perhaps the most worrisome for Chinese officials is the surge in the surveyed jobless rate to 5.3%, the highest since Feb 2017. Elsewhere, the ASX 200 and Nikkei 225 was unchanged with energy the outperformer in Australia after oil prices hit their best levels since November, while SoftBank shares were among the top gainers in the Japanese benchmark after reports it is in discussions regarding a USD 1bln investment into Uber’s self-driving unit. Chinese markets instigated a turnaround but with the downside in the Hang Seng (+0.1%) limited by notable strength seen in China’s oil majors and as China Unicom rallied post-earnings, while Shanghai Comp. (-1.2%) underperformed and fell below the 3000 level following mixed data with Retail Sales inline with expectations and Industrial Production at a 17-year low.

Emerging-market currencies and shares edged lower.

Summarizing recent price action, Bloomberg notes that investors have a lot to grapple with just now. U.S. stocks have extended gains this week as economic data comes in neither too hot nor too cold, while traders in Europe on Thursday seemed to be shrugging off more warning signs from the region – perhaps because of hopes Brexit can be delayed or derailed. Figures suggesting China’s slowdown deepened in the first two months of the year added to reasons for caution following this quarter’s rebound in Asian shares.

In geopolitical news, the US announced plans to test-launch missiles later this year after President Trump recently pulled out of the Nuclear Force Treaty. Separately, the US Senate voted 54-46 to end US support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index snapped four days of declines as Treasury yields edged higher. The pound fell ahead of another vote in the U.K. House of Commons where lawmakers will decide on whether to delay Brexit.  The yen fell the most in two weeks and, falling against all G-10 peers, as traders positioned themselves ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Friday, with some speculation that the central bank may turn slightly more dovish. Australian and New Zealand dollars slid after downbeat China data combined with falling short-end rates weighing on sentiment.

European sovereign debt was mixed as Germany said the economy likely to grow moderately in first quarter.

Elsewhere, oil prices slipped after touching a four-month high following reports that a Trump-Xi summit may be delayed until April vs. prior expectations of an end-March summit. As such WTI and Brent futures fell back into their respective one-month long range of around USD 3.50/bbl. This summit push-back has however been touted for a while as USTR Lighthizer recently noted that sticking points remain in talks

Expected data include jobless claims and new home sales. Dollar General, Adobe, Broadcom and Oracle are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,822.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 377.02
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 157.79
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 521.60
  • Nikkei down 0.02% to 21,287.02
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,588.29
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 28,851.39
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 2,990.69
  • Sensex down 0.06% to 37,731.10
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,179.59
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,155.68
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.3 bps to 0.088%
  • Euro up 0.01% to $1.1328
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to 2.197%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 1.186%
  • Brent futures up 0.8% to $68.09/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,302.26
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.65

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The pound climbed to its highest level since June after Parliament on Wednesday evening rejected leaving the EU after 46 years without an agreement in place to keep trade flowing. Legislators will now vote on a postponement to the current March 29 deadline
  • A gauge of trader positioning from Citigroup Inc. shows short bets on sterling at their highest levels since December and the bearish wagers are set to rise even further, according to market participants
  • China’s economic slowdown deepened in the first two months of the year as industrial output rose 5.3 percent from a year earlier, versus 5.6 percent forecast by economists
  • Gary Cohn, the former head of President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council, said the U.S. is “desperate right now” for a trade pact with China as negotiators from both countries seek to reach a deal
  • U.K. derivatives clearing houses would face tighter post-Brexit scrutiny from European Union regulators if they want to keep doing business in the bloc under an agreement announced by EU negotiators on Wednesday
  • Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said its headline price index fell for a fifth month in February, dropping to the lowest level since 2011, as uncertainty caused both buyers and sellers to hold off on property deals in the U.K.
  • Oil held its advance to the highest level this year as a decline in U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles added to evidence of a tightening market
  • A delay to Brexit this week may be better than the alternatives, but that’s cold comfort for the U.K. economy. While a vote Thursday is likely to buy time for an orderly divorce, that would hurt, too, by prolonging the uncertainty for businesses and consumers
  • Data showed that China’s economic slowdown deepened with industrial output having its worst start to a year since 2009 and retail sales expanding at the slowest pace since 2012; the unemployment rate jumped to 5.3% in February from 4.9% in December, the highest level in two years. On the upside, fixed-asset investment accelerated and property investment jumped

Asian stocks were initially higher across the as the region took early impetus from the US, where sentiment was underpinned by favourable data. This saw all US major indices finish positive with the S&P 500 at a 4-month high and in turn spurred the momentum in Asia, although the risk tone was eventually clouded as participants digested Chinese data. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (U/C) both gained at the open with energy the outperformer in Australia after oil prices hit their best levels since November, while SoftBank shares were among the top gainers in the Japanese benchmark after reports it is in discussions regarding a USD 1bln investment into Uber’s self-driving unit. Chinese markets instigated a turnaround but with the downside in the Hang Seng (+0.1%) limited by notable strength seen in China’s oil majors and as China Unicom rallied post-earnings, while Shanghai Comp. (-1.2%) underperformed and fell below the 3000 level following mixed data with Retail Sales inline with expectations and Industrial Production at a 17-year low. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre amid upside in Tokyo stocks and as the BoJ began its 2-day policy meeting, although there was a different picture in the longer-end as both 20yr and 30yr JGB yields fell to November 2016 lows.

Top Asian News

  • China Insiders Are Selling Stakes After Mammoth Equity Rally
  • Hedge Fund Sees China’s Distressed Debt Generating Juicy Returns
  • UBS Said Fined About $48 Million Over Work on Hong Kong IPOs
  • StanChart Loses Two Top India Bankers Amid Turn-Around Efforts

Major European indices are in positive territory [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%] initially following the positive sentiment on Wall Street where the S&P 500 finished at a 5-month high and above the key 2800 level; although indices have fallen off sharply off of session highs following reports that the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi is delayed to at least April. While this has been seen as a potential outcome for a while markets were still taken by surprise hence the significant drop from session high. Sectors have strengthened throughout the session to all being firmly in the green, after a somewhat mixed start to the session for sectors; with IT names the initial notable laggard. Notable movers include K+S Group (+7.3%) at the top of the Stoxx 600 after their FY18 EBITDA beat on expectations, alongside the Co. presenting strong EBITDA guidance for 2019. At the bottom of the Stoxx 600 are Lufthansa (-5.3%) after the Co. cut its growth plans as higher fuel costs weighed on earnings. Elsewhere, RWE (+0.3%) shares have been volatile since opening lower by around 2% after the Co. posted earnings below expectations, the turnaround in shares may be due to the Co. stating that they are confident the timetable for a E.ON (-0.1%) deal can be adhered to, after highlighting a potential delay to it in the event of a hard Brexit.

Top European News

  • Keep Hedging for U.K. Downside Risks, UBS Wealth Says
  • Short Bets on Pound Jump to Most This Year on Brexit Chaos
  • Brexit Impasse Sees U.K. Property Price Index Drop to 7-Year Low
  • Ifo Institute Slashes Forecast for German 2019 Growth to 0.6%

In FX, there was some respite for the Dollar and index after Wednesday’s relatively sharp sell-off, as the steeper reversal from recent 97.000+ highs stopped at the 96.371 level that coincides with technical support on some charts. However, the rebound was at least partly if not mainly due to external factors with several major counterparts undermined bearish impulses or running out of bullish momentum in the case of Sterling. The DXY is just shy of a recovery high inches above 96.750, and the 30 DMA at 96.602 could be key in terms of a firmer rebound or fade before another leg down towards the next downside technical level ahead of 96.000, which comes in at 96.283.

  • AUD/NZD/GBP/JPY – It’s a 4-horse race to avoid being last G10 currency to Thursday’s (EU session) finishing post, as the Aussie is undermined by data again, albeit Chinese this time rather than domestic, and fresh reports about a delay to the eagerly awaited Trump-Xi Summit to sign off a trade pact. Aud/Usd has slipped back further from near 0.7100 at one stage to 0.7050 and the Kiwi in sympathy with Nzd/Usd now around 0.6817 vs 0.6865 at best. Meanwhile, the Pound has pulled back following another Brexit-related spurt that catapulted Cable to circa 1.3340 before a retreat through 1.3300 to 1.3250. Sterling got an extra boost from the 2nd UK Parliamentary vote this week that saw a no deal in any guise rejected by MPs, in principle at least. Attention now turns to an extension of the March 29 Article deadline, and the strong prospect of that being approved has prompted PM May to tentatively schedule a 3rd MV sometime before next week’s EU Summit. Elsewhere, Usd/Jpy has backed off from circa 111.73 overnight peaks on the aforementioned breaking US-China news, but the headline pair remains above a key chart level in the form of the 200 DMA (111.43) and could be prone to further upside if the BoJ is as dovish as expected tomorrow, or even more. Note, for a full preview of the impending policy meeting please refer to the Ransquawk Research Suite.
  • CHF/EUR/CAD – All holding up better against the Buck revival, as the Franc hovers close to the top of a 1.0050-30 range and perhaps finds some traction from firmer than forecast Swiss import/producer prices (albeit still deflationary in y/y terms). Meanwhile, the single currency is keeping its head above 1.1300, marginally, but shy of Fib resistance (1.1327 represents a 38.2% retracement of this year’s 1.1570-1.1177 move) after another hefty 2019 German GDP forecast downgrade (0.6% from 1.1% per Ifo) and the Loonie is back below 1.3300 vs its US rival against the backdrop of toppy oil prices and ahead of Canadian house price data then a speech from BoC’s Wilkins.

In commodities, WTI (-0.2%) and Brent (-0.1%) futures have slipped following reports that a Trump-Xi summit may be delayed until April vs. prior expectations of an end-March summit. As such WTI and Brent futures fell back into their respective one-month long range of around USD 3.50/bbl. This summit push-back has however been touted for a while as USTR Lighthizer recently noted that sticking points remain in talks. Elsewhere, Iraqi Energy Minister emerged on the wires stating that the nation will decrease crude exports to average 3.5mln BPD from USD 3.62mln BPD in order to comply with OPEC’s output curbs. The metals market is largely on the backfoot amid a pick-up in the USD wherein the yellow metal breached USD 1300/oz to the downside. Gold is now back below its 50 DMA at 1303/oz ahead of its 100 DMA at 1271/oz. Elsewhere, copper erased its three-day gains amidst a firmer Buck couple with a turnaround in risk sentiment after the Trump-Xi meeting. US is seeking to reduce Iran oil sales by about 20% to below 1mln bpd from May and is likely to renew sanctions waivers to Iranian oil buyers but could deny waivers to countries not using them, according to sources. CME lowered COMEX 5000 silver futures margins by 8.4% to USD 3300 per contract and lowered COMEX copper futures margins by 11.1% to USD 2400 per contract.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.5%;
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.6%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 223,000, Continuing Claims, est. 1.76m, prior 1.76m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 62.1
  • 10am: New Home Sales MoM, est. 0.16%, prior 3.7%; New Home Sales, est. 622,000, prior 621,000

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Maybe the next piece should be “How to fix Brexit… and why it matters”. The first part might be more difficult to write then the second. Last night’s Parliament voted 321-278 to reject a no-deal Brexit under all circumstances. This was an amended motion that was stronger than the government wanted and hence they instructed MPs to vote against it. So in effect they lost again with the government’s authority is some disarray. I would note that this is the same government who are 10pp ahead in the latest opinion polls though. In response, Mrs. May has tabled a motion for today that effectively says that if Parliament can agree a deal by March 20th (next Wednesday and on the eve of the EU summit) she’ll ask for an extension to June 30th. If no deal is agreed she suggested an extension could be much longer as the EU will insist on it (assuming they allow one at all). So the stakes are raised and the likelihood of MV3 coming back next week is high. I’m not sure there is any time or consensus for an alternative plan to be ready by then but watch out for attempts and watch out for any amendments today that could complicate this timeline.

Sterling rallied ahead of, during, and after the vote, gaining +2.01% versus the dollar (-0.7% this morning but still up 3 cents from this week’s lows) to reach its highest level since last June. The chances appears to have increased materially for a more positive outcome. Either May’s deal or an even softer version will eventually pass, or Article 50 will be extended for a long period. The threat of the latter scenario, where Brexit might be deferred indefinitely, could be enough of a discouragement to entice the hard Brexit wing of the Conservative party to support May’s deal. However it’s fair to say that they are angry at the moment and their next steps are unpredictable.

In what feels like another planet, the rally for risk this week continues. Anyone that remembers the 1990s band Chumbawamba’s big hit will know of a good soundtrack to the recent resilience. The S&P 500 (+0.70%) rose for a third consecutive day yesterday and has now wiped out last week’s losses and is back above the 2,800 level for the first time since March 1st and to the highest close since 7 November. 2,800 has proven to be a level that the S&P has failed to hold above in recent months, but the index is back to within 4.5% of those September all-time highs now. The index did dip -0.36% off its intraday high late in the session however, after President Trump said that he is in no rush to complete a trade deal with China. Elsewhere even the DOW (+0.58%) climbed yesterday as Boeing shares finished slightly higher – notwithstanding a +/-4.83% intraday range after the US and Canada joined Europe in grounding the 737 Max plane – following two heavy day declines on Monday and Tuesday. The NASDAQ was +0.69% while in Europe the STOXX 600 ended +0.63% and is back above the levels seen before the ECB last week and just about level with its YTD high. European Banks also closed +1.59% (still below ECB meeting levels) with bond yields up 1-2bps in Europe and +0.7bps for Treasuries. Oil rose +1.50% after US data showed another larger-than-expected drawdown in crude inventories. Usually, inventories build during the winter and are reduced during the summer, but they fell by -3.86mn barrels last week.

In Asia this morning markets are trading lower with China’s bourses leading declines due to mixed economic data releases. The Shanghai Comp (-1.09%), CSI (-0.48%) and Shenzhen Comp (-2.39%) are all lower along with the Hang Seng (-0.14%) and Kospi (-0.28%) while the Nikkei (+0.24%) is up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.12% and all G-10 currencies are trading weak (-0.1% to -0.7%) this morning. Overnight, we saw China’s February economic data dump which presented a mixed bag for the economy with YtD industrial output (at +5.3% yoy vs. +5.6% yoy expected) marking the slowest start to the year since 2009. The unemployment rate (at 5.3% vs. 4.9% in December) rose to the highest since February 2017 and YtD retail sales came in line with expectations at +8.2% yoy, marking the slowest pace of growth since 2003. On the other hand, China’s YtD fixed asset investment came in line with consensus at +6.1% yoy (vs. 5.9% in last month) and YtD property investment jumped to 11.6% (vs. 9.5% in last month).

So China data is taking a shine off things but US data seems to be bouncing back with more evidence yesterday. Most notably, the January durable and capital goods orders data beat and painted a reasonable picture for Q1 capex so far. Core capex orders were up a lot more than expected (+0.8% mom vs. +0.2% expected), as were shipments (+0.8% mom vs. -0.2% expected). We should note that the data tends to be a bit volatile however and subject to big swings so best to look across months. Also, the January construction spending print was up a better than expected +1.3% mom (vs. +0.5% expected).

In contrast, albeit helping the carry trade, the February PPI print disappointed coming in at +0.1% mom for the core (vs. +0.2% expected). That said the healthcare component printed at a solid +0.25% which therefore helps the healthcare component of the PCE, although it was somewhat offset by other components which feed into the PCE, such as a -3.5% drop in airfares. So a mixed report.

In the UK yesterday we had the Spring Statement. Unsurprisingly it played second fiddle to all things Brexit related with the highlights being a £3bn improvement in the public sector net borrowing for the 2018-19 fiscal year. Stronger revenues from corporate and income taxes have been the key driver so far, though lower interest rates have also reduced borrowing costs. In a vacuum, this would reduce gilt issuance forecasts and would be bullish, but of course the outlook and price action is going to be mostly swamped by Brexit dynamics.

To the day ahead now, where the non-Brexit events this morning include final February CPI revisions in Germany and France, followed this afternoon by the February import price index print, latest weekly initial jobless claims, January trade balance and January new home sales. The ECB’s Coeure is due to speak in Milan and EU ambassadors meet.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.27 POINTS OR 1.20% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 43.94 POINTS OR 0.15%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 3.22 POINTS OR 0.02%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .33%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7245 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 58.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.71 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN 

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7245 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7318 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

China/Last night:

China’s plunge protection team continues to come to the rescue of China and it seems to be backfiring as their volatility explodes..(opposite to the USA which sees volatility low.  The USA are good at manipulating volatility as well as stock markets

(courtesy zerohedge)

National Team Rescues Backfire As China Stock Volatility Explodes

After a quiet January, Chinese small caps (ChiNext) soared a stunning 46% since the start of February…

However, Wednesday’s 4.5% drop in the ChiNext index following a 7.2% rally in the preceding two days confirms the massive rise in volatility that Chinese markets have seen – a very different relationship to US markets (which tend to see vol collapse as stocks surge).

As Bloomberg details, average intraday swings this month are now the widest since early 2016.

The index has swung at least 2% for nine straight days, as some have argued the desperation of China’s “National Team” rescuing investors day after day amid the US-China trade negotiations – thus weaponizing their stock market.

So, the question for investors is simple – is the 6% tumble in the last two days enough to spook the maniacal momentum-chasers out of the market as they are finally forced to reduce exposure in the face of spiking risk?

Some insiders are taking no chances – a growing number of companies have announced plans to trim holdings this week, including investor favorite Wangsu Science & Technology Co.

“Risks are rising as stocks reach relatively high levels,” said Ken Chen, a Shanghai-based analyst with KGI Securities Co.

Upward momentum has weakened and investors are less willing to go long than before. Some retail investors are running for the exit as more listed firms are announcing shareholders’ plans to cut stakes.”

Or is it the dip that you buy – on margin – because Xi told you to? It seems The National Team have stepped away – for now.

end
the Chinese yuan slides after China’s jobless rate increases along with industrial production growth subsiding.  Not a pretty sight
(courtesy zerohedge)

Yuan Slides After China Jobless Rate Spikes, Industrial Production Growth Tumbles

After January’s record surge, February saw China’s credit growth unexpectedly collapse prompting notable downgrades in expectations for tonight’s macro data bonanza.

Chinese central bank reported that in February, aggregate financing increased by a paltry 703 billion yuan, roughly half the expected 1.3 trillion…

… and the lowest print on record in the recently revised series. Additionally, growth in China’s broad money supply, or M2, once again slumped and after a modest rebound in January, in February M2 Y/Y growth dropped back to 8.0%, the lowest print in series history.

The February collapse in credit creation following January’s extravagant print likely means that just like most other Chinese data in the pre-New Year period, this too was distorted by the Lunar New Year, and as a result the January surge, far from indicative of a major new reflationary boost may simply suggest that China will maintain a prudent approach to overall economic leverage, which however will be bad news for the stock market which in the second half of February went all in on bets that China has doubled-down on reflating both its, and the global economy.

And China’s credit impulse has weakened back after January’s rebound:

Heading into the data, Chinese macro data has been extremely weak despite endless streams of stimulus:

But, as Bloomberg reports, the latest PMI figures out of China have suggested some stabilization in an economic slowdown that hit last year. Though the blow from the trade war to exports and production probably hasn’t fully hit as yet.

So what did February’s data look like:

  • China Industrial Production YoY MISS +5.3% vs +5.6% exp and +6.2% prior
  • China Retail Sales YoY MEET +8.2% vs +8.2% exp and +9.0% prior
  • China Fixed Asset Investment YoY MEET +6.1% vs +6.1% exp and +5.9% prior
  • China Property Investment YoY BEAT +11.6% vs +9.5% prior
  • China Surveyed Jobless Rate WEAKER 5.3% vs 4.9% prior

This is the weakest Industrial Production growth since March 2009 and Retail Sales growth is hovering near its weakest since May 2003. But perhaps the most worrisome for Chinese officials is the surge in the surveyed jobless rate to 5.3%, the highest since Feb 2017.

Graphically:

Of course, all of this comes with a warning that figures for this time of year can be volatile due to the lunar new year holiday in China, when factories and offices are significantly affected by a week-long break. The timing of the holiday shifts. Early February 2019, mid-February 2018 and late January to early February 2017, for example. So it really distorts the Jan/Feb data.

Offshore yuan was fading into the data (and ChiNext was extending its losses from the last two days) and extended its losses after the data disappointment…

The soft reading on industrial output is probably the key takeaway from these numbers, opening the big question of whether this is reflective of a deeper downturn than anticipated as the trade war effects start to bite in earnest (or if it can be blamed on the Lunar New Year effect)?

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/WEDNESDAY NIGHT

Today’s vote is whether to delay Brexit or not:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Cable Slides Ahead Of Brexit-Delay Vote – So Now What?

With the U.K. in limbo and Parliament deadlocked, MPs will vote today on whether to delay Brexit after they rejected a no-deal split from the EU (in a non-binding vote that does not legally remove it from the table).

Jacob Rees-Mogg

@Jacob_Rees_Mogg

The law still says we leave on 29th March.https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8629645/jacob-rees-mogg-insists-were-still-heading-for-a-no-deal-brexit-even-if-theresa-may-wins-tonights-vote-to-rule-it-out/ 

Jacob Rees-Mogg insists we’re still heading for a No Deal Brexit – even if Theresa May wins…

BRITAIN is still heading for a No Deal Brexit, even if Theresa May wins tonight’s vote to rule it out, Jacob Rees Mogg has insisted. The Brexiteer predicted that the most likely outcome to th…

thesun.co.uk

Prime Minister Theresa May has called a meeting of her political Cabinet at 1:30 p.m. ahead of tonight’s vote (expected after 12ET beginning with amendments), two people familiar with the matter said.

Key Developments:

  • Theresa May says if deal approved by March 20, she’ll ask for short delay; if deal isn’t approved, it will have to be a longer one
  • European Council President Donald Tusk said he will push for a long extension.
  • Cabinet Minister Andrea Leadsom to announce next week’s parliamentary business; another vote on Brexit deal expected
  • Chancellor Hammond repeats call for MPs to choose way forward

But most notably, Bloomberg reports that Theresa May would put her Brexit deal back to Parliament for a third vote if she thought it would win support, her spokesman told reporters.

“If it were felt it would be worthwhile to bring the deal back for a new vote then that is something we would do,” James Slack, her spokesman said.

Cable has erased much of the rally from the non-binding no-no-deal brexit vote…

 

If you’re confused at the non-binding nature of the vote against a no-deal Brexit; the DUP and GRE; the EU’s attitude; May’s indignance; and broad-based project fear from the establishment; here is MEP Daniel Hannan to explain, “now what”, in under four minutes,,,

We give the last word to Naked Capitalism’s Yves Smith:

It isn’t clear that the EU will agree to an extension regardless. We pointed out that a natural ally of the UK, the Netherlands, was tasked to and accepted delivering a tough message on an extension. Readers reported that another UK ally, Denmark, has given up on the UK. May trying to get yet another vote on her Withdrawal Agreement next week means the odds are high that the Government will deliver its extension request right before the EU summit, which is yet another display of UK disregard for protocol and competent decision-making. If you want to let pique play a role, this is just the way do it, and too many EU leaders have been having to work too hard to maintain a veneer of politeness as it is.

More generally, too many people are not thinking straight, particularly those who believe the no deal bomb has been disarmed. And I would not trust the self-appointed sappers in Parliament.

Read more here…

end
Parliament rejects amendment calling for a 2nd referendum.  Now we await the vote on a delayed exit
(courtesy zerohedge)

UK Parliament Rejects Amendment Calling For A Second Referendum

Vote #2: The motion loses by just three: 314-311, meaning no delayed exit date will be added to Benn’s amendment.

*  *  *

Vote#1: As expected, theUK Parliament rejects an Amendment calling for a Second Referendum (the motion losing by 344-85).

As Bloomberg notes, even “People’s Vote” – the main organization campaigning for a second referendum – issued a statement saying now is not the right time to test the will of the House of Commons on the matter.

“We believe Parliament will have better opportunities to decide it is only fair and reasonable to give the public a real say on this crucial decision for our country.”

Jacob Rees-Mogg

@Jacob_Rees_Mogg

A second referendum, the so called ‘losers’ vote’, has now been defeated in the House of Commons so is it is off the table.

No reaction in cable to this vote.

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, it’s been another ugly week so far for UK PM Theresa May as Bloomberg’s Jess Shankleman recaps:

Monday
After weeks of negotiations, May flew to Strasbourg to meet with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. With plenty of pageantry, the two agreed to changes to the controversial backstop clause on keeping trade flowing on the Irish border.

Tuesday
Parliament inflicted another resounding defeat on May’s deal after Brexit campaigners decided the changes didn’t go far enough and they couldn’t support it.

Wednesday
The pound climbed to its highest level since June after Parliament voted to reject leaving the EU after 46 years without an agreement in place on trade relations.

In fact, as SocGen’s Brian Hilliard details, May’s credibility was savaged yet again in Wednesday night’s Parliamentary vote to disapprove of a No Deal Brexit at any time

The key ingredient still missing to ensure that a No Deal is avoided is the existence of an alternative to May’s deal that can command a majority in Parliament. That could take time, making the need to seek an extension to the Article 50 period increasingly urgent.

Today’s vote will seek that extension. MPs will launch amendments. To put their desire to prevent a No Deal into effect, they now need specify the request for an extension in a way that is likely to be acceptable to the EU. Easier said than done but if it proves necessary to seek an extension then we think ultimately the request will be granted. It is looking increasingly likely that May will try to hold a third Meaningful Vote by 20 March, ahead of the 21-22 EU Summit. Don’t rule out the possibility that she still might succeed in having her deal accepted in time for 29 March. Ironically, though, when a deal is finally approved, it could still end up being close to what she has negotiated.

No No Deal EVER!?

The government motion in last night’s vote was to express disapproval for a No Deal exit on 29 March. The amendment that was passed was to remove the date of 29 March and so be against a No Deal exit at any time. Cabinet discipline fell apart with some ministers abstaining.

But May makes a crucial point The motion passed last night has no legal force “The legal default in EU and UK law is that the UK will leave without a deal [on 29 March] unless something else is agreed. The onus is now on every one of us in this House to find out what that is.” This means that Parliament has to come up with an alternative deal acceptable to the EU27 by 29 March if a No Deal is to be avoided. That is a very tall order and, as May says,

“If the House finds a way in the coming days to support a deal, it would allow the Government to seek a short limited technical extension to Article 50 to provide time to pass the necessary legislation and ratify the agreement we have reached with the EU.

But let me be clear, a short technical extension is only likely to be on offer if we have a deal in place. Therefore the House has to understand and accept that if it is not able to support a deal in the coming days and if it is not willing to support leaving without a deal on the 29th of March then it is suggesting that there will need to be a much longer extension to Article 50.”

Meaningful Vote #3

It is looking increasingly likely that May will hold a third MV by 20 March to give her one last chance of getting it through before the 21-22 March EU summit meeting. Her spokesman has said she would do this if it were thought “worthwhile.” Don’t rule out the possibility that she might succeed. Many in the Hard Brexit European Research Group of Conservative MPs might hold their noses and vote for May’s deal in fear that the alternative would be that the UK seeks a very long extension which would entail a risk of no Brexit at all. And if the DUP were to soften its opposition to the deal then the ERG would look pretty silly to be the only ones holding out. And the DUP might just be ready to do that …

Cracks are appearing in the DUP position

The UK press is full of claims that the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, might issue legal advice supplementary to the three-page judgementhe delivered on Tuesday that said that the latest concessions extracted from the EU27 did not alter his original opinion that the UK could be stuck indefinitely in the Irish backstop. This relates to Article 62 of the Vienna Convention which supposedly gives the UK some wriggle room. I won’t even pretend to say I know whether the point he makes is correct. He referred to it when he presented his judgement to Parliament on Tuesday but had not had time to include it in his written advice. Lawyers can argue the nuances of this. What matters is whether the DUP and the ERG will accept his analysis.

Why might make the DUP climb down? – tariffs A key recent Brexit event that has been put in the shade by the shenanigans in Parliament was the release on Monday of the tariffs planned in the case of a No Deal crash out to trade under WTO terms. Most tariffs would fall to zero but agriculture would be protected. For Northern Ireland the consequences would be dire. The UK plans to let in manufactured goods from everywhere including the EU (and so from Ireland) without tariffs but the EU would place tariffs on UK imports to the EU. The Northern Ireland economy would be decimated. Northern Ireland business sees this and is certain to be making its views clear to the DUP. So, for all its bluster, the DUP is probably looking for fig leaf behind which to hide its potential change of stance.

And so we come to tonight’s vote.

Tonight, Parliament will debate the motion for an extension. If MPs are serious in their commitment to prevent a No Deal then they will need to be finding ways of ensuring that the extension occurs (so the justification for it needs to be tightly specified) or vote for her deal. If they are unable to find an alternative Brexit model that can command a majority in Parliament then the logic of their determination would be that they would have to vote for May’s existing deal in the absence of any other! So still don’t assume that May fails in her attempts to get her deal through.

While nothing is certain, it seems safe to assume members of Parliament will vote tonight to delay Brexit. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond this morning went as far as to say he was “certain” it would. Beyond that, lawmakers may also have a chance to vote on whether to force a second referendum, and whether to allow for a series of non-binding votes on various Brexit options to find a way forward.

As SocGen adds, we need to continually remind ourselves that it is not automatic that the EU27 would agree to an extension

A delay long enough to see the UK be part of the new EU Parliament that holds its first session of the new parliament on 2 July would be anathema to many EU countries, and indeed to many in the UK! EU ambassadors met yesterday to discuss the options. A very long extension might be possible but it would come with conditions that the UK might find unacceptable. Donald Tusk has just tweeted “During my consultations ahead of EUCO [the 21-22 summit], I will appeal to the EU27 to be open to a long extension if the UK finds it necessary to rethink its Brexit strategy and build consensus around it.”

Today’s motion – for a “technical” extension of the Article 50 period until 30 June. As was the case yesterday, MPs will launch amendments to the motion so we do not yet know the final outcome. Watch out for amendments seeking “indicative votes” in the period 18-20 March for MPs to road-test alternative Brexit models.

As SocGen concludes, the endgame was always going to be messy It is becoming more and more likely that the flexibility necessary to get this deal over the line will have to come from the UK rather than the EU side. It is now looking less and likely that the EU will offer any meaningful concessions at next week’s summit. Most of the heart searching will have to come from the UK Parliament.

 

end-

late this afternoon:

BREAKING: British lawmakers back delaying Brexit

UK lawmakers have voted in favor of delaying the Brexit process, acknowledging that more time is needed to break the deadlock over Britain’s departure from the EU.

The motion instructs Prime Minister Theresa May to seek an extension to Article 50, the legal process under which Britain is leaving the European Union. Any delay beyond March 29 would require unanimous approval from the remaining 27 EU member states.

The Prime Minister is now likely to seek the extension at a European Council summit in Brussels next Thursday, after putting her twice-rejected divorce deal back to the House of Commons earlier in the week.

May has warned that a longer delay to Brexit will be required if her deal is rejected a third time. That would force the UK to take part in elections to the European Parliament in May.

-END-

GERMANY

Not good:  as we have indicated to you throughout the month, Germany’s economy is faltering.  Now the IFO institute cuts German 2019 GDP forecast for the entire year at only .6%.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Ifo institute cuts German 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.6 pct

BERLIN, March 14 (Reuters) – Germany’s Ifo institute on Thursday slashed its 2019 growth forecast for Europe’s largest economy to 0.6 percent from 1.1 percent due to weaker foreign demand for industrial goods and increased headwinds for exporters.

A global slowdown, tariff disputes sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ policies and the risk of a chaotic British departure from the EU could bring a decade-long expansion of Germany’s export-reliant economy to an end.

Ifo economist Timo Wollmershaeuser said that German industry — including the important car sector — would probably not contribute anything at all to overall economic growth this year.

“Global demand for German products is weak because the world economy is losing further steam,” Wollmershaeuser said.

Wollmershaeuser added, however, that a robust labour market, moderate inflation and steep wage hikes would support private consumption, which should prop up overall growth.

State spending will give the economy an additional boost as government expenditure is expected to rise by 2.6 percent this year from 1.0 percent in the previous year, he said.

For 2020, the Ifo institutes expect the economy to rebound with a growth rate of 1.8 percent.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

The following is your most important commentary of the day and I strongly believe that Brandon Smith is correct in almost everything he states.  He believes (and I) that the USA will still have two more rate hikes and we may see one of those on March19//March20. He believes that the increase in rates will bring down the entire system and then we will need a reset….

a very important read..

(courtesy Brandon Smith…)

 

The Global Economic Reset Begins With An Engineered Crash

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

For a few years now, since at least 2014, the phrase “global economic reset” has been circulating in the financial world. This phrase is used primarily by globalist institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to describe an event in which the current system as we know it will either die out or evolve into a new system where “multilateralism” will become the norm. The reset is often described in an ambiguous way. IMF banking elites will usually mention the end results of the shift, but they say little about the process to get there.

What we do know is that the intent of the globalists is to use this reset to create a more centralized monetary system and micro-managed global economy. At the core of this new structure would be the IMF along with perhaps the BIS and World Bank.  It is a plan that has been supported openly by both western and eastern governments, including Russia and China.

As noted, the details are few and far between, but the IMF describes the use of open borders and human migrations during the reset as a means to transfer capital from various parts of the world. It is a novel if not utterly insane way to transfer wealth that only makes sense if you understand that the globalist goal is to deliberately conjure a geopolitical catastrophe.

The IMF also asserts that blockchain technology will make capital transfer easier and more efficient in this future environment, which explains the enthusiastic globalist support for developments in blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies despite the notion in cryptocurrency circles that blockchain would somehow make the bankers “obsolete”.

The IMF also acknowledges that in the meantime a slowdown in capital flows has occurred, and that this slowdown is ongoing since the crash of 2008. What they do not explicitly admit is that the crash of 2008 never ended, and that the decline we are witnessing today is merely an extension of the recession/depression that started ten years ago.

Certain facts have become obvious to anyone with any sense over the past year. First, as the Federal Reserve began tightening stimulus policies by raising interest rates and cutting assets from their balance sheet, the global economy began to return to steep declines not seen since the credit crisis. I predicted this outcome in my article ‘Party While You Can – Central Bank Ready To Pop The Everything Bubble’, published in January of 2018. The plunge has started in almost every sector of the economy, from housing, to autos to credit markets to retail. Now, even jobs, numbers which are highly manipulated to the upside, are beginning to falter.

The assertion in the mainstream media is that this recessionary downturn is new. This is not the case. What began in 2008 was an epic implosion of multiple national economies, and what we are seeing in 2019 is the final culmination of that process – The end game.

It is not a coincidence that the downturn started right after the Fed began tightening stimulus measures in 2017. With only a minor increase in interest rates and moderate cuts to their balance sheet, all the conditions the economy suffered in 2008 are suddenly returning. What this tells us is that the US economy and parts of the global economy cannot survive without constant and ever expanding central bank stimulus.

The moment the stimulus goes away, the crash returns.

Does this mean that central banks will try to keep QE going forever? No, it does not. So far, the Fed has not capitulated at all from the path of tightening. In fact, the Fed nearly doubled its normal balance sheet cuts from January 30th to the end of February, dumping over $65 billion in a 30 day period. The Fed also has not changed its dot plot projections for two more interest rate hikes this year. This means all the talk the past two months of the Fed going “dovish” was nonsense. Setting aside their rhetoric and looking at their actions, the Fed has been as hawkish as ever.

The only people who might find this to be news are most stock market daytraders, who ignore all other failing indicators and seem content to base their economic projections on equities alone. Set aside the fact that stocks plunged in December into near bear market territory. The bounce in January and February has convinced them that the Fed is stepping in and will not allow the economy to tank.  But the “plunge protection team” is about to pull the rug out from under their feet after training them like Pavlovian dogs to salivate at the sound of the word “accommodation”.

Their mindset is based on a host of incorrect assumptions.

To be clear, while the Fed paid lip service to “accommodation” in their public statements, it was not the central bank that stepped in monetarily to stall falling stocks. That was actually the Chinese central bank, pumping billions in stimulus into global markets at just the right moment.

Chinese stimulus coupled with pension fund buying at the start of this year saved stocks from losses beyond 20%, but markets have met resistance on the way up. Without renewed stimulus measures from the Fed, equities have topped out multiple times and refuse to move towards their previous highs. This suggests that the two month bounce is over, and that stocks will now fall back down to December lows and beyond. If the projections I made in January are correct, then the Dow will fall into the 17,000 – 18,000 point range from the end of March through April.

The facade is slowly but surely melting away, not just in economics, but everywhere. I predicted both the success of the Brexit vote as well as Trump’s win in 2016 based on the theory that the globalists would allow or even help populists to gain a political foothold, only to crash the economic system on their heads and then blame them for the disaster. So far my theory is proving correct.

Trump’s trade war continues unabated despite claims by many that it would be over quickly. Currently, there are no plans for a March summit between Trump and Xi, and the possibility of a summit anytime soon has come into question as Trump’s negotiations with North Korea fell to shambles last month. The negotiations are a farce and are not meant to succeed. I continue to hold to my position that the trade war is a planned distraction and that Trump is playing a role in a globalist scripted drama.

The facade of Donald Trump as a “populist candidate” is quickly ending. His cabinet is loaded with think-tank ghouls and banking elites, so this should come as little surprise. But there are still some analysts out there that naively believe that Trump is playing “4D chess” and that he is not the pied piper he now appears to be. What I see is a president that claimed during his campaign that he would “drain the swamp” of elites, then stacked his cabinet with some of the worst elites in Washington D.C. What I see is a president who argued against Fed stimulus measures and the fake stock market during his campaign, and who now has attached himself to the stock market so completely that any crash will now be blamed on him no matter the facts. What I see is a willing scapegoat; a president that is going to fail on purpose.

In terms of the Brexit, I still predict that there will be a “no deal” event, and that this is by design. The Brexit deal with the EU is slated to be decided in the next few weeks. A “no deal” outcome would be a perfect excuse for a major financial crisis in Europe, which is why I think it will happen. While sovereignty movements in the US will get the blame for the crash through Trump, sovereignty movements in the UK will get the blame for a crash in Europe through Brexit.

It is important to remind the public that this narrative is entirely false.

The economy has been in a state of animated death since 2008. Central bank stimulus acted as a kind of fiscal formaldehyde, keeping the visible signs of the crash at bay for 10 years but also creating a bubble even larger and more destructive than the one before. The “Everything Bubble” has now been primed to explode with maximum damage in mind.

The Fed started the tightening process for a reason; the establishment is ready to start the “global economic reset”, and they have their populist scapegoats in place. The crash in fundamentals returned in mid-2018, and I believe that crash will finally be acknowledged publicly by the media in mid-2019.

The point of it all is described in the very IMF interviews and documents I linked to above – Total centralization of the global economic framework, managed by the IMF. They describe it as “multilateralism” or a “multipolar world order”; this is meant to fool us into believing that the reset is about “decentralization”. It isn’t. They intend to move us from one unipolar economic structure to another unipolar economic structure that is even more centralized. That is all.

The crash itself is simply a means to an end. It is a tool to gain fiscal and psychological leverage against the public. The everything bubble was created for a reason. The Fed has tightened into economic weakness over the past year for a reason. The timing of Trump’s trade war and summit failures have happened for a reason. The timing of the Brexit chaos is happening now for a reason. The globalists are pulling the plug on economic life support today; the crash is engineered, and sovereignty movements are supposed to take the blame.

The best option at this time is to continuously force the issue of central bank culpability.  Liberty activists have to keep the focus on them and their criminal participation in economic sabotage, and we cannot assume that any government or political leader will be friendly to our cause.  The globalists have started the crisis, and we must finish it by making sure they are held accountable.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the publishing of articles like the one you have just read, visit our donations page here.  We greatly appreciate your patronage.

end

When you look at the container/shipping industry you can get the feel of the global slowdown.  The container shipping companies are certainly having their troubles

(courtesy zerohedge)

A Perfect Storm Is Developing Over Container Shipping

The slowdown in global trade began many quarters before the Trump administration launched a trade war with China last May. The primary cause of the downturn is sharp declines in intra-Asian trade – mostly due to China’s deteriorating economy. While equity markets around the world have soared in the last several months from “trade optimism,” any deal between Washington and Beijing may not initially trough global trade and could leave the shipping industry in turmoil.

A rapid slowdown in global trade to rising marine fuel to capacity out of step with demand has generated new challenges for container-shipping operators in 2019, hurting the overall prospects for a global recovery in the near term.

The Wall Street Journal says that shipping companies will pass on $10 billion in extra expenses to cargo owners this year.

Container ships are essentially cargo ships that carry all of their load in truck-size intermodal containers, in a technique called containerization. These vessels move clothes, food, furniture, electronics and heavy-industry parts from emerging market countries to the developed world. Pre-2008 financial crisis, these ships fueled globalization, as demand for vessels rose as much as 8% annually and shippers spent billions to increase the size of their fleets.

Now, the industry is plagued with excess tonnage and collapsing freight rates. It is likely that the trade war will continue to push rates below the break-even levels for many companies this year.

With China’s economy faltering and trade volumes declining from the evolving trade war between Washington and Beijing, operators are slashing their full-year forecasts.

“We see clearly a global economic growth that is declining,” Soren Skou, chief executive of A.P. Moller-Maersk AS, the world’s top container operator by capacity, told an investor conference call recently.

“We see weaknesses, in particular, in China and Europe. We expect container demand growth to fall to 1% to 3% this year from 3.7% to 3.8% last year.”

The world’s largest shipper, Maserk, said 2019 would be a challenging year due to risks of further restrictions on global trade. It added that new regulations by the International Maritime Organization to cut emissions from  ship stacks “will bring significant increases in fuel prices.”

“The fuel price increase is very significant and there will be a premium in freight rates,” Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Japan’s Ocean Network Express, told The Wall Street Journal in a recent interview.

“We are trying to pass on the fuel charge to customers, but we are not doing it very effectively.”

Consulting firm AlixPartners LLP. said in a recent report that ships traveling from Asia-to-Europe trade route would need to boost freight rates by 40%, and 33% for trans-Pacific trades to absorb the extra costs.

Shipping executives warn uncertainty over the availability of cleaner fuels makes freight rates this year little more than a guessing game. “It has turned the shipping market, the transportation market, into a casino,” said Andreas Hadjiyiannis, president of the Cyprus Union of Shipowners.

Freight rates soared in the second half of 2018 as US importers pulled orders forward to get ahead of tariffs. But by late August into September, rates collapsed after the importers were finished.

“We don’t believe a China-U.S. deal will be the last we have heard of trade tensions in 2019,” said Skou.

“There is also clearly an outstanding discussion between Europe and the U.S.”

Faltering global trade is a clear indication that container-shipping operators will have a challenging time in 2019. Compound that with marine fuel rising, new emission standards, and overcapacity in the industry, well, a perfect storm is brewing.

end
A very important commentary from Simon Black.  He correctly states the major problem facing the world: the marginal utility of  debt is falling…they need more debt to get that one dollar of growth.  That is why all the finances in the world are failing:
(courtesy Simon Black/SovereignMan)

Europe Is So Weak It Can’t Even Handle 0% Interest Rates

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Europe’s leading economic policy makers have officially thrown in the towel.

Last week, the European Central Bank admitted economic conditions are so dire that it already has to reverse its monetary policy.

I’ll get back to that in a minute…

Following the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, central banks printed trillions of dollars and pushed interest rates to their lowest levels in human history. Low interest rates (and lots of new money sloshing around the system) mean people should go out and buy things that would otherwise be out of reach… new houses, new cars, businesses, etc.

And, in theory, all of that activity creates jobs and helps the economy grow… in theory.

Ten years into this monetary experiment, central banks did create growth…

US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was about $15 trillion in 2008. Current GDP is about $22 trillion. That’s $7 trillion of economic growth.

Impressive… until you figure the cost of that growth.

Over the same period, the US national debt increased from $10 trillion to $22 trillion.

So, it took $12 trillion of debt to create $7 trillion of economic growth.  

The marginal utility of all of this new debt is decreasing (remember this point for later). And it’s the same story all over the world.

The US economy is so dependent on cheap money, it can’t even handle 2% interest rates (the Fed hiked rates from 2.25% to 2.5% last December and stocks fell 20%).

But Europe is even worse. Europe has negative interest rates. And the European economy is so weak (it grew 0.2% in Q4), it can’t even handle ZERO percent interest rates.

Last week the ECB announced it would keep interest rates negative. And it’s starting its third round of cheap loans to banks (who, in turn, are supposed to lend to businesses and households).

The bank also cut its growth forecast from 1.7% (already pretty bad) to 1.1%.

The euro zone is the third-largest economy in the world. And, ten years after the GFC, it can’t keep the machine running unless interest rates are negative and it continues to dole out cheap cash to banks. This is a pretty big deal. And it’s the clearest sign yet of what’s to come… there’s trouble ahead.

Remember, the marginal utility of the money being printed by central banks around the world is plummeting. Each dollar they print produces less and less economic activity.

For example, the US only added 20,000 jobs in February (a far cry from the expected 181,000 jobs).

But they persist…

The ECB is all in on negative interest rates and easing. Canada recently warned its economy was weaker than realized. The US halted its rate hikes and may reverse course. Interest rates are negative in Japan and standing pat.

There are currently $9.7 trillion of negative-yielding bonds in the world (up 21% from October 2018 through January). I’d bet we’ll soon see the total number of negative-yielding bonds in the world surpass the 2016 high of $12 trillion.

When you’re in a world with trillions of dollars of negative-yielding debt, nothing really makes sense.

Interest rates are the price of money. And when that price is negative… what does that say about the world?

One of the best things to do in this economic environment is to own real assets, whether it’s shares of a thriving business, precious metals or other commodities.

For gold, you can buy either gold bullion or collectibles. And our friend, Van Simmons, says $20 gold pieces are one of the best deals in the market today. Collectible coins usually trade a big premium to the spot price of gold. But you can buy these coins for about the same price (even though the premium over spot has been as high as $1,700).

So you get exposure to gold and all of that potential upside. We wrote about it in Notes last year.

But exposure to other commodities, like copper, uranium, silver, etc. also makes sense.

I’m recording a podcast today with one of the best resource investors out there. I’ll send it out this week, but he’ll share some of his favorite ways to invest in the beaten-down resource market.

We’re about to see a world with a whole lot more negative-yielding debt. You should position yourself accordingly.

And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.

7  OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

Venezuela

NEXT NIGHTMARE:

Crude oil is now running into homes’ tap water

(courtesy Paraskova/OPilPrice.com)

Venezuela’s Latest Nightmare: Crude Oil In The Tap Water

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via Oilprice.com,

Ordinary people in Venezuela are bearing the brunt of the ongoing power struggle in the country and last week’s blackout.

While the power outage in the country which holds the world’s largest oil reserves has shut down oil production and processing operations as well as the main oil export terminal, the blackout has caused massive shortages of running water.

Residents in the town of San Diego in the Carabobo state woke up to see black stuff running from their taps on Wednesday in what appeared to be water contaminated with crude oil.

Local journalist Heberlizeth González posted a video on Twitter, showing that water in the area is not suitable for consumption, and saying that the situation is “terrible” and there are districts without water service for two months.

Embedded video

Heberlizeth González@Heberlizeth

La situación por falta de agua en San Diego es terrible. Hay sectores que llevan más de 2 meses sin el servicio, igual que otras zonas de Valencia y Los Guayos.

Esta mañana llegó el agua a San Diego así 👇🏽 Nada apta para el consumo @Hidrocentro2011 @rafaellacava10

917 people are talking about this

Without power, the utilities have not been able to pump water to the homes.

Other residents in the town of San Diego also took to Twitter to complain about the contaminated water running from their taps, Daily Mail reports.

Sky News chief correspondent in Caracas, Stuart Ramsey, reports that people in Venezuela are desperate to find water and that the capital doesn’t have power yet to pump the water. There have been many reports that people, including children, have gotten very ill from contaminated water or food, Ramsey reports.

The Venezuelan National Assembly, dominated by the opposition, has declared a state of alarm over the blackout that the Maduro government blamed on a U.S. cyber-attack and that plunged the struggling country into darkness and chaos for five days.

The Venezuelan government said on Tuesday that some electricity has returned in some areas, Associated Press reports. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s attorney general Tarek William Saab announced on Tuesday that he had launched an investigation into opposition leader Juan Guaidó over suspicions that he had been involved in the power blackout.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1299 DOWN .0031 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.59  UP .381 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3226    UDOWN   0.0061  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3322 UP .0032 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 31 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1299 Last night Shanghai composite closed DOWN 36.27 POINTS OR 1.20%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 43.94   POINTS OR 0.15% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.33%/EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 3.22 POINTS OR 0.02% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 43.94 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.27 POINTS OR 1.20% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .33%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 3.22 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1297.25.00

silver:$15.23

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.62% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.02 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 96.79 UP 24 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.33% DOWN 3  in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.04%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.19% DOWN 2   IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.49 DOWN 9    POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 130 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES  TO +.09%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.40% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1305 DOWN   .0026 or 26 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.71 UP .503 OR YEN DOWN 53 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3279 DOWN .0006( POUND DOWN 6  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 15 basis points to 1.3315

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7230    0N SHORE  (DOWN)

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7230(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4681

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.04%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.63 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.03 UP 3  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.69 UP 15 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP  19.56 OR 0.59%

German Dax : UP 31.34 POINTS OR 0.44%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 16.98 POINTS OR  0.15%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 41.51 POINTS OR  0.78%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 132.45 POINTS OR 0.64%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.88 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 67.48 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.49  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.04 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 4 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO +.09 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.52

 

 

BRENT :  67.16

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.63.

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.04..

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1303 ( DOWN 28   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.71 UP .499 (YEN DOWN 50  BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.79 UP  24 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3225  DOWN 61 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4681

the Russian rouble 65.53   down .09 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 9 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3325 DOWN 23 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7230  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7217  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.09%

 

The Dow closed UP 7.05 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 12.49 POINTS OR 0.16%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.47 CLOSED UP 0.06 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.6011%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.593

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Stocks Start Slide Back To Bond Market Reality As Quad-Witch Looms

ate:

 

Dismal China data overnight did not help the fact that China’s ‘National Team’ appears to have abandoned investors…

 

European markets extended gains on the day (except DAX was unchanged)…

 

US equity markets were broadly lower on the day with some last-hour rally monkeys rescuing The Dow briefly but a weak close sent everything lower( but a last second spurt of buying held The Dow green on the day)…

 

S&P futures show a series of lower lows and lower highs today…

 

It appears the short-squeeze ammo has run out ahead of tomorrow’s quad witch…

 

 

And before we move on to bonds, here is the ‘seasonality’ of the March Quad Witch – next week looks set to be less-than-pretty…

 

It remains a long way for stocks to fall back to bond market reality…

 

The compression of VIX and Credit spreads has stalled…

 

Treasury yields were largely unchanged across the curve once again today, but we do note the long-end saw some notable underperformance…

 

With 30Y Yields bouncing off the 3.00% level…

 

The market is pricing in 14.5bps of rate-cuts in 2019 – the most dovish since the crash at the start of the year…

 

And finally in rate land, the probability of a rate cut in Jan 2020 is now at its highest level since Dec…

 

The Dollar rebounded higher today after 4 straight days lower…

 

Cable slid after the vote in “sell the news” style action…

 

Cryptos were very noisy today…

 

The dollar strength weighed on PMs today as Copper slid on weak China…

 

WTI managed more gains today, after an early dip, but traded in a very tight range around $58.50 for much of the afternoon…

 

And gold fell back below the $1300 level…

 

Finally, we wonder what happens next week as the momentum-chasing muppets of Quad-Witch evaporate…

end

 

MARKET TRADING/ early this morning

The Trump/Xi meeting delayed to at least April: sends futures tumbling

(zerohedge)

 

Futures Tumble: Meeting Between Trump And Xi Delayed To At Least April

With S&P futures trading at session highs, at precisely 6am EDT the Eminis tumbled, rapidly approaching session lows following a Bloomberg report that trade negotiations may not be going quite as well as represented, as a meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement to end the ongoing US-China trade war won’t occur this month and is more likely to happen in April at the earliest.

The market reaction is shown below.

As Bloomberg adds, despite repeated claims of progress in talks by both sides, a hoped-for summit at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort will now take place at the end of April “if it happens at all.” China is pressing for a formal state visit rather than a lower-key appearance just to sign a trade deal, the person said.

Confirming prior reports, a Bloomberg source said that Xi Jinping’s staff have scrapped planning for a potential flight to the U.S. following a trip to Europe later this month.

The hints that not all is well were there, even if the market chose to ignore them: earlier this week, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer pointed to “major issues” still unresolved in the talks, with few signs of a breakthrough on the most difficult subjects including treatment of intellectual property. Chinese officials have also prickled at the appearance of the deal being one-sided, and are wary of the risk of Trump walking away even if Xi were to travel to the U.S.

Trump himself has shifted tone in recent days, walking back from a more urgent approach to getting a deal signed as early as March. He acknowledged concerns in Beijing about the possibility of him walking away from a trade deal, offering to push back a summit with Xi until a final deal is reached.

“We could do it either way,” Trump told reporters Wednesday at the White House. “We can have the deal completed and come and sign or we can get the deal almost completed and negotiate some of the final points. I would prefer that. But it doesn’t matter that much.”

Considering that much of the 500 or so S&P point rally from December 24 has been built on market “optimism” that a US-China deal is now a done deal, any potential failure to secure an outcome that has already been priced in risks sending the S&P sharply lower, and certainly once again below 2,800 a level which algos just seem powerless to break out decisively above.

ii)Market data/

Import/Export prices surge in February but are still stagnate year over year. However what is important is that China is continually sending her deflation over here

(courtesy zerohedge)

Import/Export Prices Surge In February, Stagnate Year-Over-Year

After comfortingly disappointing (for the ‘patient’ Fed) CPI and PPI data, import and export prices beat expectations in February (both rising 0.6% MoM) – the largest monthly increase since May.

However, on a year-over-year basis – despite the modest rebound – import and export prices are decidedly non-inflationary…

Import prices YoY are down 1.3% and Export prices YoY are up just 0.3%

 

However, China continues to push the most disinflationary price pressure since Nov 2007…

 

END
Hard data:  new home sales continues to slump in January.  Home sales are a key component in GDP calculations.
and thus another indicator of a slump in the USA economy
(courtesy zerohedge)

New Home Sales Slump In January, Despite Drop In Prices

Following a rebound in November and December, January’s (delayed due to the govt shutdown) new home sales plunged 6.9% MoM despite a jump in homebuilder sentiment.

This pushes year-over-year growth in new home sales back into decline

Sales of new U.S. homes in January fell to the weakest pace since October, driven by a decline in the Midwest as still-elevated prices keep buyers on the sidelines.

The number of properties sold for which construction hadn’t yet started declined to 183,000, the lowest in three months,showing a weaker pipeline of building for the coming months.

The sales drop occurred despite a drop in the median sales price, down 3.8% from a year earlier to $317,200.

As a reminder, new-home purchases are seen as a timelier barometer of the market, as they’re calculated when contracts are signed rather than when they close, like the previously-owned homes data.

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

A good Bellwether for the economy:  huge derivative player GE has their shares plunging on a dismal 2019 outlook

(courtesy zerohedge)

GE Shares Plunge On Dismal 2019 Outlook

Confirming the warnings from last week, GE has issued a 2019 guidance statement that the company expects industrial free cash flow as low as negative $2 billion.

On March 5th, CEO Larry Culp warned that cash flow from GE’s industrial operations will be negative this year as GE grapples with further challenges in its power business and other operational pressures.

Today’s guidance confirms that.

  • Looking ahead to 2020 and 2021, GE expects adjusted Industrial free cash flows to be positive in 2020, with the pace of improvement accelerating in 2021.
  • Sees year adj. EPS 50c to 60c, vs. estimate 67c.
  • Expects power unit free cash flows down in 2019.
  • Sees GE Capital net income breakeven by 2021.

“GE’s challenges in 2019 are complex but clear,” says CEO Lawrence Culp, adding

We have work to do in 2019, but we expect 2020 and 2021 performance to be significantly better with positive Industrial free cash flow as headwinds diminish and our operational improvements yield financial results.”

The reaction was not positive, as it seems the final short-squeeze two weeks ago exhausted the ammo and downside risk is back:

“We will continue to take thoughtful actions to reduce downside risk and increase upside optionality to create long-term value for our shareholders,” Culp added.

 

end
As expected the “bomb cyclone” hits over 70 million Americans in the centre of the USA as hurricane winds and blizzard likes conditions play havoc in that part of the USA.
(courtesy zerohedge)

‘Bomb Cyclone’ Detonates Over 70 Million Americans As Hurricane Winds Batter Central US

The National Weather Service (NWS) announced a meteorological “bomb” detonated over the Central US of “historic proportions.”

As the powerful winter storm developed mid-week, heavy snow pounded northern Colorado, including Denver, western Nebraska, eastern Wyoming, central South Dakota, and southeastern North Dakota.

“As expected, a historically strong storm pushed through the Plains Wednesday into Thursday with powerful winds, snow, and blizzard conditions. A wind gust of 97mph was recorded near Colorado Springs, along with several inches of snowfall. This created blizzard conditions and blowing snow that continues today in much of the Plains of Colorado. This has caused road closures, and travel headaches across this region. This system is also responsible for flooding across the Upper Midwest as well as severe weather and tornadoes in the Ohio Valley Thursday,” reported Meteorologist and owner of Empire Weather LLC., Ed Vallee.

Hundreds were stranded throughout Colorado interstates. The Associated Press reported many accidents occurred along interstates 25 and 70 in Colorado.

Dozens of roads remained closed in Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, and Iowa on Thursday due to snow and flooding. Some of the significant closures include stretches of I-80 and I-70.

Embedded video

Jennifer Meckles

@jennifermeckles

Rough going on Hwy 83 this evening, just south of Parker…

Gov. Jared Polis declared a state of emergency on Wednesday and activated the Colorado National Guard. Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts did the same.

The storm pulverized the High Plains on Wednesday with the rate of intensification resulting in bombogenesis, which describes storms whose central pressure drops 24 millibars in 24 hours. The lower the pressure and the quicker it falls, the more powerful the storm.

NWS recorded 350 wind gusts reports of 50 mph or more during the storm.

Some locations were blasted with hurricane-force wind gusts.

Airlines canceled 2,000 flights and delayed another 2,700 due to hurricane force winds and severe weather.

END
JPMorgan capitulates: it no longer expects rate hikes in 2019. I guess it is just Brandon Smith and I would believe that they will raise rates
(courtesy zerohedge)

JPMorgan Capitulates, No Longer Expects Rate Hikes In 2019

Taking a diametrically opposite stance to Morgan Stanley, which earlier this week forecast that as a result of a rebound in the economy in the second half, and an acceleration in inflation into 2020 and further, the Fed would hike rates once in 2019 (in December) followed by three more hikes in 2020, on Thursday JPMorgan’s chief economist Michael Feroli published a report in which he changed his “Fed view” and as a result it no longer sees any more rate hikes in 2019 (it had previously predicted one in December), and just one more hike in 2020.

As Feroli writes in his preview of next week’s key Fed meeting, the latest “dot plot” to be revealed in one week, will most likely indicate an expectation of zero hikes, and “irrespective of what happens with the dots, we now look for no hikes this year” as the Fed’s “longer-run discussion of inflation “makeup” strategies is just getting going.”

Feroli elaborates, noting that while the FOMC is almost certain to leave policy rates unchanged next week, “the more interesting development will be what the “dot plot” signals about their intentions for the rest of the year.”

We suspect the median dot moves down from the two hikes they signaled in December to either no hikes or one hike for this year. We see somewhat higher odds of zero than one. Regardless of “which side of maybe” that decision falls, we are now inclined to think the Fed is on hold for the rest of the year (we still see one more hike late next year).

Following a brief discussion of how JPM expects the Fed’s economic projections to change, Feroli notes that it believes the Fed is moving toward a framework that employs a “makeup” strategy, “most likely something that resembles average inflation targeting.” He elaborates as follows:

Before moving on, it may be helpful to review the timeline of events that is informing this view. Last November the Fed issued a very brief press release stating its intention to review its strategies, tools, and communications in the coming year. In late February, Vice Chair Clarida elaborated on this, explicitly citing consideration of “makeup” strategies among the central issues to be explored. (In between the November announcement and the February speech, a number of research pieces were published throughout the Federal Reserve System highlighting the shortcomings of the current approach and the benefits of makeup strategies).

Looking ahead, on June 4 and 5 of this year the Fed will hold a conference in Chicago to further explore these ideas. This conference will be neither the beginning nor the end of this review, and will not be a market event (in our opinion), but will offer a chance to take stock of what has been learned about policy in a low interest environment. Finally, the Fed will produce its conclusions for the public in the first half of 2020.

And so, even with the outcome of this review at least nine months away, JPM thinks the spirit of the review will be permeating policy decisions in the interim. Here the bank notes that several Fed officials have already loosely affiliated themselves with some variant of a makeup strategy, the NY Fed’s Williams being the most prominent. Moreover, the current policy framework (as articulated in the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy) gives policymakers considerable discretion in how they interpret optimal policy, “such that engineering an inflation overshoot could be seen as a desirable outcome even under the existing strategy.”

Elaborating further, Feroli writes that one should also keep in mind that the intermediate goal of makeup strategies is to boost inflation expectations and “to the extent these have been drifting lower a more accommodative posture would be warranted under both the current framework and a makeup framework. Finally, the makeup strategy that emerges, in our opinion, is unlikely to have the precise, mathematical formalism of textbook price-level targeting. Instead we expect it will communicate a vaguer sense of a through-the-cycle inflation objective, and so the difference between that and current policy may not be as sharp-edged as one might think.”

Finally, JPM says that it continues to look for a hike in late 2020. This reflects three judgments, in descending order of confidence:

  1. first, over time positive output gaps generate inflation,
  2. second, the nominal neutral funds rate is higher than 2.40%, and therefore
  3. third, growth will generally be above trend in the coming year and a half.

And even following JPM’s dovish capitulation, which now leaves Morgan Stanley as the sole hawk on the street, expecting a total of 4 more rate hikes, the market appears to have made up its mind, and as of today, the Fed Funds’ implied odds of a rate cut in the January 2020 meeting have risen to 34.4%, roughly 10% more than just earlier this week

… and the highest since the December market crash, which is just a little odd considering the S&P is now over 500 points higher than where it was during the December crash.

SWAMP STORIES

Oh this one is good:  the parents in the college admission scandal may face addition tax fraud charges for submitting phony donations.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Parents In College Admission Scandal May Face Tax Fraud Charges And IRS Penalties

The parents involved in yesterday’s widely reported  college admissions scam could have even more bad news coming their way in the form of tax penalties and civil tax fraud charges, as  the parents involved in the scheme were able to take tax deductions on purported “donations” that were doubling as bribes in order to get their children into elite colleges like Stanford and Yale.

The Key Worldwide Foundation has been declared a tax exempt organization and fronted/brokered many of the bribes that were paid out to University administrators. The Internal Revenue Service declared the foundation tax-exempt under code Section 501(c)(3) around 2013. If parents decided to “double dip” and write their bribes off, they could eventually be charged with tax crimes.

As long as the statute of limitations has not expired, the IRS has the option to audit the parents involved in the scheme, potentially resulting in deficiency notices, according to Sam Brunson, a professor of law at Loyola University Chicago.

If the IRS then finds out they took deductions on fake charitable contributions, parents could be hit with “large penalties” under “tax code Section 6601 and Section 6662, which cover interest payments and penalties for underpayment of taxes.” The IRS’s audit of the charity was one of the key parts of the Federal investigation that uncovered the scandal.

The IRS has the option to impose a penalty of 20% of the underpayment, on top of the original tax payment owed. Some parents that paid as much as $75,000 to the foundation could wind up having to pay an additional $15,000, plus interest. The IRS also has the option to impose penalties for civil tax fraud, according to Lloyd Hitoshi Mayer, a professor at the University of Notre Dame law school.

The tax fraud that occurred was a key part of the government’s case. One family said in court documents that they had reported charitable gifts of more than $1 million, which included a payment to the Key Worldwide Foundation.

“You can send to my foundation as a donation/write off or if you have your own company we can invoice you as a business consulting fee from our profit business and you write off as an expense,” William Rick Singer is reported to have told a family in an e-mail. We recently profiled Singer as the “man behind the largest college admissions scam ever”.

end

It begins: the first of many class action lawsuits against various universities involved in the admissions scandal

(courtesy zerohedge)

Admission Scandal Fallout: USC, UCLA, Others Hit With First Class Action Lawsuit

The fallout from the “largest college admissions scam ever produced” will be long and arduous for all parties involved, including parents and universities. Today, two days after the revelation of the criminal conduct, the legal ramifications have begun. 

USC and UCLA, and other colleges were the first colleges sued by students seeking class status over the scandal, Bloomberg reports. The lawsuit also reportedly names Stanford University, the University of San Diego, the University of Texas at Austin, Wake Forest University, Yale University and Georgetown University.

Two students at Stanford said in a lawsuit Wednesday that “qualified students paid college admission fees without realizing that unqualified students were slipping in through the back door of the admissions process by committing fraud, bribery, cheating, and dishonesty,” according to a report by Courthouse News.

Had she known that the system at Yale University was warped and rigged by fraud, she would not have spent the money to apply to the school. She also did not receive what she paid for—a fair admissions consideration process,” Plaintiff Erica Olsen says in the complaint.

Her degree is now not worth as much as it was before, because prospective employers may now question whether she was admitted to the university on her own merits, versus having parents who were willing to bribe school officials, the lawsuit continues.

On Tuesday, Federal prosecutors announced that they were charging dozens of people, including famous actresses Felicity Huffman and Lori Loughlin, in an alleged scheme to help students get admitted to colleges under false pretenses.  Prosecutors alleged that the individuals charged tried to bribe college entrance exam officials in order to cheat on admissions tests and that some conspired to bribe coaches and administrators to label their children as “recruited athletes”. Athletes can sometimes get preferential treatment.

Earlier today, we discussed how this latest scandal is an indication of how “truly corrupt” America has become, even as the rich are confident they can get away with anything. Last night, we also reported on major tax implications that could be coming for the parents involved – including potential civil tax fraud penalties and interest charges on any bribe amounts they wrote off. 

Yesterday morning, we reported that William Rick Singer was revealed as the man who brokered and facilitated many of the bribes.

Singer is called a “self described serial entrepreneur” who appeared to have found his niche in helping young people get into college. He was the founder of the Edge College & Career Network, the institution that helped broker bribes between the uber-wealthy and prestigious colleges. According to the company’s website, his goal was to “help alleviate the anxiety of getting into college” because he “has seen first hand the stress that the college admissions and athletics recruiting process can put on a family.”

Following charges, Singer pled guilty to racketeering, money laundering, conspiracy to defraud the United States and obstruction of justice. He is looking at between 15 and 19 1/2 years in prison for his crimes. Our original take on the scandal can be read here.

END

The Fed’s failures are mounting due to income disparity

(courtesy Danielle DiMartino Booth)

Booth is a former Fed official

The Fed’s Failures Are Mounting

Authored by Danielle DiMartino Booth via LinkedIn.com,

In the decade between “60 Minutes” interviews, the central bank has sparked a recovery without inflation but not much else.

Friday marks the 10-year anniversary of the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s groundbreaking “60 Minutes” interviewTo listen to current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the same show a decade later, the central bank’s best laid plans since then would seem to have played out according to script with one glaring exception: the Fed’s balance sheet.

When “60 Minutes” reporter Scott Pelley asked Bernanke if the Fed was printing money, his reply was,

“Well, effectively. And we need to do that, because our economy is very weak, and inflation is very low. When the economy begins to recover, that will be the time that we need to unwind those programs, raise interest rates, reduce the money supply, and make sure that we have a recovery that does not involve inflation.”

If the primary goal was recovery without inflation, the Fed delivered. Since the onset of recovery in June 2009, the core personal consumption expenditures index, which measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services net of food and energy prices that tend to be more volatile, has been above 2 percent in in just five months in 2018, four in 2012 and one in 2011.

Critics of the central bank suggest that the massive surge in financial assets over the past decade starkly illustrates the need for the Fed to incorporate inflation gauges that take into account price gains of real estate and securities. One such gauge, the Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG) created at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has hovered around the 3 percent level since last February. In other words, the UIG has been running north of the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target since November 2016. The justification for raising interest rates thus depends on the gauge used to guide policy.

As for Bernanke’s commitment to unwind unconventional monetary policy, it’s looking increasingly as if only a small portion of his promise can be fulfilled. Since last meeting in January, Fed officials have been publicly unified in their intention to present a road map to end quantitative tightening (QT) at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The 16 percent to 17 percent of GDP estimate Powell offered Congress as the terminal size of the balance sheet implies QT will end with the Fed holding about $3.5 trillion in securities, compared with the peak of about $4.52 trillion in January 2015. (The Fed held less than $1 trillion of balance sheet assets before the financial crisis.)

Running monetary policy looser than need be for such a protracted period has benefited global asset prices. Even after the Fed began tapering its bond purchases, its central banking peers more than took up the slack. As of February, the collective balance-sheet assets of the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England stood at 36.3 percent of their countries’ total GDP, little changed over the past two years.

When Pelley asked Bernanke about banks that had paid perks and bonuses after taking bailout money, Bernanke replied:

“The era of this high living, this is over now. And that they need to be responsible and use the money constructively. I’d say that their job right now is to find a way to make loans to creditworthy borrowers, to get their banks back on the path of making good loans, safe loans, and to have a reasonable sense of humility based on, you know, what’s happened in the last 18 months.”

But at the National Association for Business Economics recent annual conference, University of California-Berkeley economics professor Gabriel Zucman presented his findings on the widening divide between the “haves” and “have nots” in the U.S. His conclusion:

“Both surveys and tax data show that wealth inequality has increased dramatically since the 1980s, with a top 1 percent wealth share around 40 percent in 2016 vs. 25 – 30 percent in the 1980s.”

Zucman also noted that increased wealth concentration has become a global phenomenon, albeit one that is trickier to monitor given the globalization and increased opacity of the financial system.

That is not to say the most powerful players in finance haven’t had to adapt to a post-crisis worldThe inability to undertake risky lending under tightened regulation has pushed business to an increasing degree out of the conventional banking system into the shadow banking industryPrivate equity presides over more than $2.1 trillion in committed capital to be deployed outside the purview of regulators’ watchful eyes, according to research firm Preqin.

While, Powell acknowledged that risks had built up among highly leveraged companies, he said the scale is not “the kind of thing that we saw in the…subprime mortgage crisis. It doesn’t seem to be like that, generally. But at the same time, it could be an amplifier in a downturn.”

As for any notion that Fed policy has elevated asset prices and left behind those without the means to benefit, circumstances that have skewed both wealth and income inequality, Pelley asked, “Where are we headed in this country in terms of income disparity?” Echoing his predecessors, Powell replied,

“Well, the Fed doesn’t have direct responsibility for these issues.”

Except that the Fed does have direct responsibility. If the “wealth effect” used to justify a generation of quantitative easing hasn’t kicked in yet, trickling down to those who need it most, it’s past time the Fed acknowledged its failings and opened the door to a new policy framework.

end

The Mueller investigation is coming to an end: The pit bull Weissmann is stepping down

(courtesy zerohedge)

Top Mueller Prosecutor Weissmann Steps Down In Latest Sign Probe Ending

Andrew Weissmann, perhaps the ‘angriest‘ Democrat on special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe, is leaving the investigation and will return to the private sector, according to NPR, citing two sources.

Considered the “architect” of the case against former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort – who was sentenced to a combined 7.5 years in prison for financial crimes related to his private business dealings, Weissmann will now study and teach at New York University. He will also embark on several public service projects, such as how to prevent wrongful convictions by improving forensic science standards.

As NPR notes, “The departure is the strongest sign yet that Mueller and his team have all but concluded their work.

Weissmann – who wasn’t able to link Manafort to collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, has come under fire from conservatives for his extreme liberalism. He attended Hillary Clinton’s election night party in 2016, and was one of several officials told by then-DOJ #4 Bruce Ohr prior to the DOJ obtaining a FISA surveillance warrant that the ‘Steele Dossier’ was opposition research connected to Clinton and might be biased. Weissmann was the head of the DOJ’s fraud section at the time.

Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon also issued a warning about Weissmann and other senior members of the special counsel team when they were named in 2017.

Other departures signaling the end of Mueller’s probe

While Weissmann’s departure is the largest indication to date that the Mueller probe is near its end, several other investigators have already left the special counsel’s office – including the senior-most FBI agent working the case; David Archey. Archey will head up the FBI’s Richmond, VA office.

Another prosecutor, Brandon Van Grack, is now leading a DOJ effort to enforce compliance with the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) – a law requiring that people disclose if they are representing foreign powers in the United States. Created in 1938, the law remained virtually unenforced until the DOJ was able to nab Manafort and his deputy Rick Gates, who failed to register as foreign agents while representing the government of Ukraine. Notably, lobbyist Tony Podesta – who worked alongside Manafort, had the uncanny foresight to retroactively file as a foreign agent months before Manafort was charged.

Weissmann’s past successes

One of the reason Andrew Weissmann was considered such a threat to the Trump team is his long history of unraveling complex financial ties and securing cooperative witnesses in order to build criminal cases against higher-ups.

As a federal prosecutor in Brooklyn, Weissmann won a conviction against the head of the Gambino crime family, using testimony from Sammy “The Bull” Gravano and others.

He went on to lead the Justice Department task force investigating fraud at Enron Corp., a high-flying energy company whose chief executives, Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling, were convicted by a jury in Houston.

Lay died before he could be sentenced. Skilling served 12 years behind bars before his recent release. –NPR

“Throughout his career, Andrew has had unparalleled success in building case after case against the most sophisticated criminals in the world,” said former colleague Leslie Caldwell. “He took on New York’s most feared organized crime families, unraveled the incredibly ornate frauds at Enron, and has tracked international criminals, exposing their carefully concealed financial dealings in many dark corners of the world.”

END

Trump wants his wall and will veto the Senate measure on border security

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Threatens To Veto Senate Measure Overturning Border National Emergency Declaration

President Trump fired off a fresh warning that he is ready to veto a measure in the Republican-led senate to rebuke him over his national emergency declaration at the southern US border.

“A big National Emergency vote today by The United States Senate on Border Security & the Wall (which is already under major construction),” Trump tweeted early Thursday. “I am prepared to veto, if necessary. The Southern Border is a National Security and Humanitarian Nightmare, but it can be easily fixed!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

A big National Emergency vote today by The United States Senate on Border Security & the Wall (which is already under major construction). I am prepared to veto, if necessary. The Southern Border is a National Security and Humanitarian Nightmare, but it can be easily fixed!

While Trump has framed the border crisis as a matter of national security, Democrats and some Republicans argue that his Feb. 15 national emergency to circumvent Congress over border wall funding is unconstitutional.

Meanwhile, Trump shot down a compromise by Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) which would defeat the Democratic resolution to overturn the national emergency in exchange for an agreement that Trump will rein in his power to declare future national emergencies.

On Wednesday, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who was leading an effort to craft a compromise aimed at curtailing presidential emergency powers in the future, became the latest Republican to announce plans to defect and vote for a resolution to nullify Trump’s declaration when it comes to the floor on Thursday.

Lee made the announcement shortly after hearing directly from Trump that his legislation was not acceptable.

Lee’s position all but ensures there will be majority support in the Senate on Thursday for the disapproval resolution, which has already passed the House. Senate passage would send the measure to Trump, forcing him to issue the first veto of his administration to strike it down. –Washington Post

While Congress will not likely be able to override Trump’s veto, a successful vote by the Republican-controlled Senate will serve as an embarrasing reminder that the president doesn’t have the support of his party.

GOP members of Congress, meanwhile, will have to return to their districts and explain why they voted against the wall that Trump was elected to build.

“What we want to see the Senate do this week is stand with the president, to stand with the president’s declaration of a national emergency,” said Vice President Mike Pence in a Thursday interview with Fox News. “A vote against President Trump’s national emergency is a vote against border security. A vote against the president’s national emergency declaration is a vote to deny the humanitarian and security crisis that’s happening at our Southern border.

END

“VETO!” – Trump Vows To Overrule Senate After Border Emergency Overturned

Update: As expected, President Trump will veto the bill, as expressed in a one-word tweet on Thursday afternoon.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

VETO!

***

The Republican-led Senate has voted to block President Trump’s emergency declaration to allocate funding for a southern border wall by a margin of 59-41.

Trump has promised to issue the first veto of his presidency, which the Senate lacks a 2/3 majority to overturn.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

A big National Emergency vote today by The United States Senate on Border Security & the Wall (which is already under major construction). I am prepared to veto, if necessary. The Southern Border is a National Security and Humanitarian Nightmare, but it can be easily fixed!

I’ll do a veto. It’s not going to be overturned,” Trump told reporters on Thursday. “It’s a border security vote.

While Trump has framed the border crisis as a matter of national security, Democrats and some Republicans argue that his Feb. 15 national emergency to circumvent Congress over border wall funding is unconstitutional.

Twelve GOP senators broke with President Trump, joining Democrats to overturn the national emergency declared last month.

The vote on Thursday pit Mr Trump against some of the most prominent members of his own party and will force him to issue the first veto of his presidency if he wants to proceed with taking money from other federal agencies to fund wall construction.

In addition to some Senate Republicans who have bucked Mr Trump in the past like Maine’s Susan Collins and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, Thursday’s 59 to 41 vote saw a wider array of party stalwarts turn against the president, including Utah’s Mitt Romney.

In total, 12 Republicans voted for the measure, including Mike Lee, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Lamar Alexander. –FT

“This is not a vote against border security,” said Romney ahead of the vote. The Utah senator argued that he was concerned with the precedent which would be set by the White House using an executive order to move forward with a policy widely rejected by Congress, adding “For the executive branch to override a law passed by Congress would make it the ultimate power rather than a balancing power.”

The full list of Republicans who joined with Democrats against Trump, via Axios:

  • Lamar Alexander (Tenn.)
  • Roy Blunt (Mo.)
  • Susan Collins (Me.)
  • Mike Lee (Utah)
  • Jerry Moran (Kan.)
  • Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)
  • Rand Paul (Ky.)
  • Rob Portman (Ohio)
  • Mitt Romney (Utah)
  • Marco Rubio (Fla.)
  • Patrick J. Toomey (Pa.)
  • Roger Wicker (Miss.)

Trump did not answer when reporters asked if there would be consequences for Republicans who went against him – however a White House official said that Trump wouldn’t forget when senators ask him to attend fundraisers or provide other help, according to NBC Bay Area.

The following is a dandy!! The Lynch testimony is still not publish but Sara Carter has reviewed the testimony of Lynch and it is explosive:  it reveals bias and intent for failing to give Trump defensive briefings as to the supposed Russian influence into his campaign.  We are not sure if Hillary got this briefing..something which she paid for and thus not necessary. However if would have been nice if the Congressman/Senators would have asked Lynch is she did provide the defensive briefings to her:
(courtesy zerohedge)

Lynch Testimony Reveals Bias And Intent For Failing To Give Trump Defensive Briefing

Via SaraCarter.com,

President Donald Trump’s campaign was never given a defensive briefing by the FBI, despite mounting concerns that Russians were allegedly trying to penetrate the campaign during the 2016 presidential election.

In testimony provided by former Attorney General Loretta Lynch, along with others, it is the key finding that won’t bode well for the FBI and DOJ. It also raises significant questions regarding the treatment of Hillary Clinton’s campaign and whether she ever received ‘defensive briefings’ in detail from the bureau. Lynch’s testimony is still not public but has been reviewed by SaraACarter.com.

The defensive briefing, after all, is a procedure that is often given to presidential candidates, elected officials and even U.S. businesses that have either been unwittingly approached by foreign actors attempting to gain trust and befriend those in position of influence.

The briefing allows the government to protect the candidates, specifically if there is substantial information or knowledge to suggest that someone has targeted an unwitting American for information. If the FBI or intelligence agencies suspect foreign adversaries may be trying to penetrate a presidential campaign, as those FBI and DOJ sources suggested in testimony to lawmakers, it would then be required to warn those affected, a senior former intelligence official told SaraACarter.com.

Why? Because foreign adversaries like China and Russia for example, and even allies, will attempt to glean information – or favor – from unwitting persons with access to senior level officials. The access can assist those nation’s own national interest or provide access for intelligence collection.

In the case of Trump, the FBI gave only a general counterintelligence briefing but did not provide information to the campaign that the FBI believed there were specific counterintelligence threats. For example, the FBI’s concern over campaign advisors George Papadopolous, Carter Page and then concerns over former national security advisor Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn.

“It is an essential task of the FBI and the intelligence community to give a defensive briefing to a presidential candidate when a foreign adversary is attempting to penetrate or make contact with someone in the campaign,” said a former senior intelligence official.

“If the FBI and DOJ were so concerned about Carter Page and (George) Papadopolous why didn’t they brief Trump when he became a candidate? The fact that they didn’t is very revealing. If they gave defensive briefing to the Clinton campaign then I think we have the answer.”

Bruce Ohr’s 268-page testimony, released last week by Georgia Rep. Doug Collins reveals the machinations of the FBI’s investigation into the Trump campaign and the players involved. Ohr’s testimony coupled with testimony provided by former U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch, which has not been released but reviewed by this reporter, along with former FBI General Counsel James Baker’s testimony reveals a startling fact: everyone appeared to say they were concerned the Russian’s were penetrating the Trump campaign but no one at the DOJ or FBI authorized a defensive briefing.

Lynch and Failure to Give Defensive Briefing 

Let’s start with Lynch’s testimony, which has not yet been made public.

In her testimony, Lynch she admits that senior officials at the FBI and DOJ did not provide a briefing to then candidate-Trump. Those discussions, according to Lynch, also included former FBI Director James Comey. It appears they all discussed that the defensive briefing was an option but never followed through. None of those persons who testified about those discussions has a clear answer to why none was given.

“Were you aware that George Papadopoulos was under investigation by the FBI,” an investigator asked Lynch during last years closed door hearing.

“I was aware that his activities were of concern,” Lynch replied.

“Were you aware that he was associated with the Trump campaign,” the investigator followed up.

Lynch then says, “you know, I knew that but, again, I don’t have specifics and certainly at that – thinking back to that time, I don’t know if I knew his role at that time in the campaign.”

The investigator then presses Lynch, asking “did you know he had some sort of role?”

“As far as my recollection is, yes,” Lynch answers.

The investigator goes one step further:

“So there are these investigations launched into two individuals, in your mind, somehow associated with the Trump campaign…Did you consider any other options other than an investigation?”

Lynch explains, “it’s when information is provided to someone usually as a result of the intelligence community learning information that may impact them, in the context in which I’m aware of it, in their official role, or in their official business.”

The investigator then asks was “defensive briefings given to candidates for the presidency?”

“Certain types of defense briefings are, is my understanding,” Lynch states.”It’s not something that I was personally involved in. They received – they do receive security briefings. I’m only aware of that from discussions with members of the intelligence community.”

The revelation:

“Did you ever discuss whether the Trump campaign should be defensively briefed on either Carter Page or George Papadopoulos,” asks the investigator, who reiterates if they were under scrutiny whey didn’t the FBI and DOJ make Trump aware.

“I was certainly aware that it was an option, but I don’t know what, if anything, ever happened to that option,” Lynch answers. “Without getting into specific discussions, it certainly is an option that one would consider, but I don’t know if those actions were ever taken.”

When asked if Lynch was involved in discussing defensive briefings with the Trump campaign about Carter and Papadopolous, she only replies “not to the level of giving direction.”

“Again, I’m just being careful because of the nature of the information,” she stresses. “Certainly, it’s always an option, but at a very early stage, you would have it as an option, and you would evaluate it as time goes on, and I don’t have any information about further resolution of that issue.”

Lisa Page

Lisa Page’s testimony may answer some questions as to why the Trump campaign was not given a defensive briefing.

She states that Trump was not a target at the time but that it was members of his campaign that the bureau was concerned about.

This makes no sense at all. If the FBI was concerned about allegations that Carter Page and Papadopolous were allegedly being influenced by the Russians they would’ve given Trump, who was a presidential candidate at the time, a defensive briefing.

The FBI had worked with Carter Page in the past on a separate case connected to Russia so why wouldn’t the FBI provide a fair warning to Trump when Carter Page joined as a volunteer for the campaign.

In Page’s transcript she indicated to Rep. John Ratcliff, R-Texas, under questioning that the bureau had no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia prior to launch of the FBI and special counsel investigation.

“So I think this represents that even as far as May of 2017, we still couldn’t answer the question,” said Page, who said that up until May 2017 the bureau still didn’t have any evidence of collusion or conspiracy.

Gowdy Questions Page

Under questioning by then-Rep. Trey Gowdy, R-SC, regarding her text messages to Strzok, Page states that the bureau was concerned about someone in the campaign was working with Russians to get damaging information on Clinton. But she admitted that they still didn’t have evidence up until May 2017?

“We had a number of discussions up through and including the Director regularly in which we were trying to find an answer to the question, right, which is, is there someone associated with the campaign, who is working with the Russians in order to obtain damaging information about Hillary Clinton,” Page told Gowdy, regarding the texts.

She also says later in her testimony to Gowdy “as I sort of explained, if he is not going to be President, then we don‘t need to burn longstanding sources and risk sort of the loss of future investigative outlets, not in this case, but in other Russia–related matters…”

Page states that the FBI didn’t believe Trump was colluding with Russia but maybe someone was within in the campaign. In her mind Trump wasn’t going to win so why “burn longstanding sources.”

The one question I would’ve asked those testifying, is the one question the lawmakers never asked: ‘Did the DOJ and FBI provide defensive briefings to Hillary Clinton’s campaign at any point in time and on any matter involving any foreigners attempting to access her campaign?’

If anything, this is a significant question that DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz should consider as he continues his investigation into possible malfeasance in the FBI’s handling of Trump campaign and Russia investigation.

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:
end

British Politics Enters the Meltdown Phase

Theresa May’s Brexit deal is dead. Now what?

    There are now two more votes: Lawmakers will vote Wednesday on whether to exit the EU with no deal at all. If that too is rejected, as expected, they will vote on whether the government should seek to delay the March 29 exit date…

    May has shown she can’t lead a negotiation, can’t lead a party and can’t run a government. It’s hard to see what she could get past parliament after this. A prime minister is nothing without the confidence of the House…   https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-03-12/theresa-may-s-brexit-deal-is-dead-now-what

@RepRatcliffe: The newly released transcripts of my interview with Lisa Page indicate that Peter Strzok had no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia prior to the launch of the FBI and special counsel investigations into the matter.

    Lisa Page confirmed to me under oath that the FBI was ordered by the Obama DOJ not to consider charging Hillary Clinton for gross negligence in the handling of classified information. [This is why Teams Obama and Hillary had to instigate the DJT inquisition.]

@realDonaldTrump: Comey testified (under oath) that it was a “unanimous” decision on Crooked Hillary. Lisa Page transcripts show he LIED [We told you this in July of 2016.]

FBI agents signed NDA for matters involving Hillary’s emails    July 12, 2016

Sources said they had never heard of the “Case Briefing Acknowledgment” form being used before, although all agents must initially sign nondisclosure agreements to obtain security clearance.  “This is very, very unusual. I’ve never signed one, never circulated one to others,” said one retired FBI chief…

    Meanwhile, FBI agents expressed their “disappointment” over FBI Director James Comey’s decision not to recommend charges against Clinton, sources close to the matter told The Post.  “FBI agents believe there was an inside deal put in place after the Loretta Lynch/Bill Clinton tarmac meeting,” said one source…  https://nypost.com/2016/07/12/fbi-agents-signed-nda-for-matters-involving-hillarys-emails/

@seanmdavPage also claimed they didn’t do a defensive briefing for then-candidate Trump because they didn’t have any evidence anyone associated with his campaign was a foreign agent, which is a verydifferent story than the one they told the FISA court.

@johncardillo: Lisa Page also threw John Brennan under the bus. I believe history will show that he was the chief architect of this failed soft coup.

Lisa Page transcripts reveal details of anti-Trump ‘insurance policy,’ [initiating a Russia-DJT probe] concerns over full-blown probe

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/lisa-page-transcripts-reveal-details-of-anti-trump-insurance-policy-concerns-over-full-blown-probe

 

Senator Rand Paul @RandPaul: This deserves more attention! FBI Mistress, Lisa Page, confirmed to House Judiciary, there was an anti-Trump Insurance Policy and it’s the fake Russian investigation! She admits there was almost no evidence on collusion, yet they continued with WITCH HUNT!

Lynch Testimony Reveals Bias and Intent For Failing to Give Trump Defensive Briefing

Lynch’s testimony is still not public but has been reviewed by SaraACarter.com… In her testimony, Lynch she admits that senior officials at the FBI and DOJ did not provide a [defense] briefing to then candidate-Trump. Those discussions, according to Lynch, also included former FBI Director James Comey…    https://saraacarter.com/lynch-testimony-reveals-bias-and-intent-for-failing-to-give-trump-defensive-briefing/

With Lisa Page’s apparent flip on Deep State officials during Obama’s reign, the Russian collusion hoax is over.  Even Adam Schiff realizes this.

@thehill: Rep. Adam Schiff: “What would be necessary to make an impeachment a bipartisan process would have to be extraordinarily clear and compelling… I think the speaker is absolutely right: in its absence,impeachment becomes a partisan exercise doomed for failure.”

@RepMarkMeadows: Michael Cohen unequivocally said he NEVER sought a pardon from POTUS. But read this letter. His attorney now admits Cohen DID ask RE: a pardon, through counsel last year.

   They’re walking back a claim made unequivocally under oath. “Never” didn’t really mean “never.”

Cummings: No action against Cohen for pardon statement – “At this time…” [Refutes report that we posted earlier this week]   https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/13/cummings-cohen-pardon-statement-1220469

TRUMP BY THE NUMBERS by Ann Coulter

Trump has willfully decided to keep amnesty advocates Jared, Ivanka, Mick Mulvaney, Marc Short and Mercedes Schlapp in the White House…

    NUMBER OF MILES OF WALL BUILT ON OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SINCE TRUMP HAS BEEN PRESIDENT: ZERO…

   NUMBER OF TIMES TRUMP HAS CLAIMED ON TWITTER HE’S ALREADY BUILDING THE WALL: 16 BY MY COUNT…

    NUMBER OF EXECUTIVE ORDERS ENDING THE ANCHOR BABY SCAM — AS TRUMP PROMISES WHENEVER AN ELECTION IS COMING: ZERO…

    TOTAL CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS IN 2016 GIVEN BY GOLDMAN SACHS TO HILLARY CLINTON: $388,000.

    TOTAL CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS GIVEN BY GOLDMAN SACHS TO TRUMP: $5,607 (or 70 times less than Goldman gave to Hillary).

    NUMBER OF GOLDMAN SACHS EMPLOYEES PUT IN TOP ADMINISTRATION POSITIONS BY PRESIDENT TRUMP: 7 — or “more than Presidents Bush and Obama combined.”…

http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2019-03-13.html

@ABC: FBI special agent says 300 FBI, IRS agents participated in arrests in alleged college cheating scam, named “Operation Varsity Blues”; 38 individuals have been taken into custody so far. [Is this a reasonable use of FBI/IRS assets?] http://abcn.ws/2EXG8Id

@RealSaavedra: Socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) asks Wells Fargo CEO Timothy Sloan: “Hypothetically, if there was a leak from the Dakota Access pipeline, why shouldn’t Wells Fargo pay for the cleanup of it?”  Sloan: “Because we don’t operate the pipeline, we provide financing”

    She retweeted this… exchange posted by another account because she thinks it makes her look good

Ocasio-Cortez Accuses Bank [Wells Fargo] CEO of ‘Caging Children,’ Gets SHUT DOWN

“Mr. Sloan, why was the bank involved in the caging of children? And the financing of the caging of children to begin with?” asked Rep. Cortez.  “I don’t know how to answer that question because we weren’t,” fired-back the banking CEO…

https://www.hannity.com/media-room/epic-fail-ocasio-cortez-accuses-bank-ceo-of-caging-children-gets-shut-down/

Long-Classified Memo Surfaces Warning of ‘Perfect Storm’ From Invading Iraq

Diplomats accurately forecast many setbacks: sectarian violence, attacks on U.S. troops, Iranian intervention and long road to structural change

    As President George W. Bush pressed the case for war in Iraq in the summer of 2002, top State Department officials warned that an invasion to overthrow Saddam Hussein could spark internal Iraqi chaos, Middle East upheaval and threats to U.S. interests, according to formerly classified documents released this week…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/long-classified-memo-surfaces-warning-of-perfect-storm-from-invading-iraq-11552486945

-END-

I WILL SEE YOU FRIDAY NIGHT
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