MARCH 19/GOLD STRONG TODAY UP $4.60 TO $1306.90//SILVER UP 6 CENTS TO $15.37//MONSTROUS DROP IN GOLD OPEN INTEREST DUE TO LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS//FRANCE REJECTS ENGLAND BREXIT DELAY//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1306.90  UP $4.60 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.37 UP 6 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1306.70

 

silver: $15.37

 

 

Comex options expiry:  Wednesday March 26

London/LBMA expires Monday March 31/2019.

The crooks continue with their whacking right in front of the authorities/regulators despite the criminal probe of precious metals manipulations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

MARCH

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 5 NOTICE(S) FOR 500 OZ (0.0155 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  362 NOTICES FOR 36200 OZ  (1.1259 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 5303 for 26,515,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3992:UP $20

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $4009  UP 51

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 2/5

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,300.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/18/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 03/20/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 3
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 5 5
MONTH TO DATE: 362

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FINALLY STOPS ITS DESCENT AND ROSE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK: , THIS TIME BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 948 CONTRACTS FROM 186,196 UP TO 187,144 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S SMALL 2 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.  TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE MUST HAVE HAD  CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AGAIN TODAY.

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  950 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 950 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 950 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 950 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.75 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 2 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

AND NOW: 26.835 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

27,639 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 27,639 CONTRACTS) OR 138.195 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2126 CONTRACTS OR 10.630 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  138.195 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 19.72% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          503.58    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 948 DESPITE THE 2 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD   A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 950 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 1898 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE)

i.e 950 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 948 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 2 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.31 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.936 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 134% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR  5,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/AND NOW MARCH: 26.835 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST SURPRISINGLY AGAIN FELL BY A VERY LARGE 11,524 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 517,342 DESPITE THE TINY FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.70//YESTERDAY’S TRADING)YESTERDAY I WROTE THE FOLLOWING: “EITHER WE HAD A MASSIVE SHORT COVERING OR THE SPREADERS STARTED TO LIQUIDATE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN USUAL”  I AM NOW CONVINCED THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE STARTED THEIR LIQUIDATION EARLIER THAN USUAL.  YOU WILL RECALL THAT THEY USUALLY LIQUIDATE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THEIR OPEN INTEREST ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE MONTH. SOMEHOW THEY HAVE DECIDED TO START TWO WEEKS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE.  SOMETHING SINISTER IS GOING ON BEHIND THE SCENES!!~

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  FAIR SIZED 2856 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 2856 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 517,342. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE. FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW,  A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8668 CONTRACTS: 11,524 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2856 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 8,668 CONTRACTS OR 866,800 OR  26/96 TONNES.

YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $0.70.AND WITH THAT, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS LOSS IN TONNAGE OF 26.96 TONNES?????!!!!!!.

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 88,964 CONTRACTS OR 8,896,400 OZ OR 276.72 TONNES (13 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6833 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 276.72 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 276.72/2550 x 100% TONNES = 11.08% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1145.7 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 11,524 DESPITE THE TINY LOSS IN PRICING ($0.70) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 2856 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 2856 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 8,668 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

2856 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 11,524 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE STRONG LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 26.96 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS FALL IN  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL OF $0.70 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX???????!!!!!

 

 

 

we had:  5 notice(s) filed upon for 500 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $4.60 CENTS TODAY 

 

ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// AS THE FRAUD IN THIS VEHICLE CONTINUES: TWO TRANSACTIONS TODAY

A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD /THERE IS NO WAY ON EARTH THAT THESE GUYS CAN FIND THAT AMOUNT OF GOLD IN A HURRY!!

AND THEN A LOSS OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD

 

WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FARCE!!!

 

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT  THE SLV//

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 948 CONTRACTS from 186,196 UPTO 187,144 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 950 FOR MAY AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 950 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1148 CONTRACTS TO THE 950 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE  OBTAIN A GAIN OF 1898  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9.49 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY AND NOW 26.835 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 950 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.44 POINTS OR 0.18% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 57.27 POINTS OR 0.19%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 17.65 POINTS OR 0.08%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .11%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7129 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 59.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.03 for Brent. Stocks inEurope OPENED GREEN 

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.71329 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7178 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)USA and China again clash over China’s One Belt and Road Initiative

( zerohedge)

ii)The real reason:  Huawei is leaving the USA well behind in technology development re the new 5 G  (5th Generation) wireless network

(Mish Shedlock//Mishtalk

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)France:

France is set to ban the yellow vest protests in neighborhoods with ultra radicals.  Good luck to Macron on this one.

( zerohedge)

ii) UK
A humourous accounting of the absurdity of three votes on the exact legislation that has already been defeated three times already.

( zerohedge)

 

iii)Oh Oh! France’s macron rejects the BREXIT delay. Remember that they need all 27 EU members to vote in the affirmative

( zerohedge)

 

iv) Germany

And on the same topic as above:  Germany without a doubt makes its big bank problem even bigger with the proposed merger of Deutsche bank and Commerzbank

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)Canada

Seems that our Prime Minister Trudeau has some problems as more top bureaucrats unexpectedly quit amid the growing corruption scandal involving SNC Lavalin

( zerohedge)

ii) Mish Shedlock talks about the death of globalization and how it is accelerating as total global trade declines
( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

India/China

This is worrisome: A former envoy to Pakistan is warning that India’s massive navy operation is a warning to Beijing and not necessary Pakistan. China is supporting Pakistan is a very big way:

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Tanzania is setting up government run mineral trading centres with the purpose of curbing illegal gold exports out of the country

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

 

ii)Hemke writes at Sprott Money that another recession is coming to the uSA and this will likely prompt more QE and interest rate cuts.  If so precious metals will soar

( Craig Hemke/Sprott Money)

iii)James Turk describes the ferocious shorting of gold futures trying to contain gold’s price

(courtesy James Turk/Kingworldnews)

 

iv)My goodness:  Palladium is bid 1600 usa. About 21% of Palladium production comes  from Russia and they are contemplating withholding all of their precious metals.  Palladium is generally a bi product in the production of Nickel.

( zerohedge)

v)Aluminum giant Norks is crippled by a massive ransomware as its entire operation has been shut down( zerohedge)

vi) Bill Holter..public article…

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//early this morning

 

END

 

ii)Market data

THIS OUGHT TO CONVINCE YOU THAT WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A RECESSION.!! Instead of a rebound from last month’s dismal reading..it (FACTORY ORDERS) again disappointed dropping .2% month over month

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Houston: we have a problem!!

( zerohedge)

b)The Dept of Transportation now begins an audit of how the Boeing 737 Max was certified by the FAA

( zerohedge)
c)Another good sign of global slowdown:  Fed ex tumbles  as they are stating:  “slowing global trade”
( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)What a riot!!  Steele’s former Mi6 boss calls the Dossier “overrated”

( zerohedge)

b)This is beginning to get interesting;  Nunes sues twitter for 250 million dollars in a “shadow ban” lawsuit

( zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN FELL BY HUMONGOUS  SIZED 11,524 CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 517,342 DESPITE THE TINY LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($0.70) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING).

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2856 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 2856, FOR JUNE:0 CONTRACTS AND FINALLY DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2856 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 8668 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2856 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A HUMONGOUS SIZED 11,524 COMEX CONTRACTS. OUR SPREADERS HAVE STARTED TO LIQUIDATE MUCH EARLIER THAN USUAL!!

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ONLY::8668 contracts OR 866,800 OZ OR 26.96 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MARCH and here the open interest stands at 21 contracts  for a  loss of 17 contracts.We had 20 notices served upon yesterday so we  GAINED  3 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 300 oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their effort. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX!!!

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after  March is the  active delivery month is April and here the OI lost by 13,858 contracts down to 231,676 contracts. The non active month of May picked up 57 contracts for a total of 884 open interest.  After May, the next active delivery month is June and here the OI stands at 195,280 having gained 2432 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 5 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 500 OZ. (0.0155 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 948 CONTRACTS FROM 186,863 DOWN TO 187,144(AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 65 HAVING LOST 0 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER FOR OVER 3 YEARS IN THAT THE TOTAL OZ STANDING INCREASES FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE STANDING.

 

 

 

 

AFTER MARCH, WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.  HERE: APRIL FELL TO 806 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 9 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 700 CONTRACTS UP TO 134,700 CONTRACTS.  TODAY THE BANKERS TOOK A LITTLE BREATHER WITH RESPECT TO QUEUE JUMPING..MAYBE THEY JUST COULD NOT FIND ANY PHYSICAL METAL AT THE SILVER COMEX…

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED A GOOD 1898 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 948 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 950 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1898 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY???. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 1 notice(s) filed for 5,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  135,462  CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  207,127  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Initial standings for  MAR/GOLD

MAR 19 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

 

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
5 notice(s)
 nil OZ
(0.0155 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
16 contracts
(1600 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
362 notices
36200 OZ
1.1259 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside.

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil oz

 

we had 0  adjustments…

FOR THE MAR 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  5 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (362) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (21 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (5 x 100 oz per contract) equals 37,800 OZ OR 1.1757 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of MARCH

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (362 x 100 oz)  + {21)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 37,800 oz standing OR 1.1757 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH.

We GAINED 3 contracts or an additional 300 OZ ADDITIONAL oz WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING TO ACCEPT A FIAT BONUS.

 

HOWEVER, THE GOLD COMEX (AND SILVER COMEX) ARE NOW IN STRESS AS THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO FIND PHYSICAL METAL.

SURPRISINGLY NO GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 11.388 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  366,127.915 oz or  11.388 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,037,536.411 oz 250.000 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON

MARCH 2018 VS MARCH 2019 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 1/2018: TOTAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 2.1524 TONNES

THE FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE: MARCH 31/2018:  1.6114 TONNES AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 29 MONTHS 105 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH

MAR INITIAL standings/SILVER

MAR 19 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
52,750.820 oz oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,297.803
oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
1
CONTRACT(S)
5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
65 contracts
325,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5303 contracts

(26,515,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.825 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.12% of all official comex silver. (147 million/300.8 million)

 

i) Into CNT:   600,297.803oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  600,297.803   oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) out of CNT: 50,776.828 oz

ii) out of Delaware; 1974.000 oz???

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 52,750.820   oz

 

we had 0 adjustment

 

total dealer silver:  95.669 million

total dealer + customer silver:  301.439 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MARCH 2019. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR  5,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5303 x 5,000 oz = 26,515,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (65) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 5292(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR( 65) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 26,835,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained  0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand as investors continue to shun morphing into London based EFP’s  as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

ON MARCH 1.2018 WE HAD 24.670 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STAND FOR DELIVERY. BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE DELIVERY MONTH, 27.190 MILLION OZ STOOD AS QUEUE JUMPING IN THE SILVER COMEX ARENA HAD BEEN THE NORM FOR QUITE A WHILE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  20,371 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 46,095 CONTRACTS… 

volumes are dropping for both gold/and silver

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 46,095 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 230 million OZ  32.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.86% (MAR19/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.14% to NAV (MAR19/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.86%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.16/TRADING 12.78/DISCOUNT 2.87

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $4.60 TODAY: A MASSIVE 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 779.27 TONNES AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1..18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED:  TOTAL GLD INVENTORY REMAINING:  778.09 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.70: A BIG CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.04 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT AGAIN OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.53 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $1.70: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.87 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY AND THIS GOLD HAS BEEN USED IN THE WHACKING PROCESS YESTERDAY AND TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD ANOTHER $12.50 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33 TONNES

FEB 26  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

 

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.99 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/ A SURPRISE GAIN (DEPOSIT) OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.50 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAR 19/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 778.09 tonnes

*IN LAST 561 TRADING DAYS: 156.86 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 461 TRADING DAYS: A NET 9.96TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TODAY AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 1.17 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 516,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: STRANGE!! TWO TRANSACTIONS!!  IN THE MORNING A WITHDRAWAL OF 703,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307,800 OZ/ IN THE AFTERNOON: A DEPOSIT OF 1.56 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY FINALLY RESTS AT 309.160 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS//A  SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 610,000 OZ//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ/

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT; NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/RESTS AT 309.984

FEB 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ/

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS: SURPRISINGLY A DEPOSIT OF 1.688 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

 

MAR 18/2019:

 

Inventory 310.848 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.17/ and libor 6 month duration 2.67

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .50

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.46%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.82

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.36

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank May Become EU’s “Too Big To Fail” Bank

Germany Makes Its Big Bank Problem Even Bigger

EU and ECB Need To Be Ready For The Consequences If This Doesn’t End Well

by Bloomberg Editorial Board

Germany has come up with a solution to the deep troubles at one of the world’s largest banks: make it part of an even bigger one.

The people who oversee Europe’s financial system had better be ready for the consequences if this doesn’t end well.

The Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank is in talks to merge with crosstown rival Commerzbank — a move that Germany’s finance ministry has favored for months. The result would be a behemoth with assets of about 1.8 trillion euros, equivalent to more than half of Germany’s annual economic output; the merged bank would be Europe’s third biggest after the U.K.’s HSBC and France’s BNP Paribas.

The deal is a short-term answer to a politically fraught question — what to do about a struggling and systemically important institution. After a series of unsuccessfulturnaround efforts, Deutsche Bank has been in what its own chief financial officer described as “a vicious circle of declining revenues, sticky expenses, lowered ratings and rising funding costs,” exacerbated by numerous international money-laundering probes.

The proposed merger will provide a brief respite, but is unlikely to solve the underlying problems.

The combined bank will be able to reduce costs by cutting staff. However, the deal won’t lessen competition from hundreds of regional public-sector banks for relatively inexpensive deposit funding. It won’t help Deutsche figure out how to handle its legal issues, or revive or dispose of its investment banking unit. In fact, the complications of merging have the potential to distract attention from the real issues that both institutions and Germany’s entire banking industry need to address.

The crucial question is what happens if the combined bank remains financially fragile — or if another crisis hits before it finds its footing. Under Europe’s new banking union, supranational supervisors led by the European Central Bank can deem an institution unviable, take it over and dismantle it before the damage spreads. But they’ve never tried this with an institution remotely as big as Deutsche, let alone Deutsche-Commerzbank, and one doubts they have the necessary resources to undertake such a challenge.

To guard against this risk, Europe’s regulators should require the combined institution to have ample equity capital to absorb any losses. (As things stand, a loss of a few percent of assets could leave it distressed.)

They should also press the bank to simplify its operations and lay out a realistic crisis plan — a process that has only just begun. Beyond that, Europe’s governments need to give the Single Resolution Board better access to financing, so it can keep critical operations up and running if a big institution fails.

One hopes Deutsche-Commerzbank will find a business model that benefits the economy and works for shareholders. But in case it doesn’t, Europe should be prepared with a plan to wind it down. The alternative would be embarrassing as well as expensive: Germany, which has always insisted on strict rules against bailouts in the banking union, may find itself keeping the bank afloat at taxpayers’ expense.

via Bloomberg

 

 

News and Commentary

Palladium hits record high as supply woes mount on likely Russia ban (CNBC.com)

Gold prices edge up on tepid dollar ahead of Fed meeting (Reuters.com)

Gold settles with a loss as investors look to the outcome of the Fed’s meeting this week (MarketWatch.com)

Asia firms spend less and save more as China economy slows (Reuters.com)

May’s Brexit deal in chaos as Speaker sparks ‘constitutional crisis’ (Reuters.com)

India becomes top importer of Gold Doré Bars from Bolivia (FinancialExpress.com)

Why gold is still the best basis for money – Nathan Lewis (Forbes.com)

Gold should remain popular given the slowing European economy (Ft.com)

Keynes Was a Vicious Bastard (GoldSeek.com)

A Mar-a-Lago Weekend and an Act of God: Trump¹s History With Deutsche Bank (NYTimes.com)

Deutsche And Commerzbank – Germany is forcing a marriage that may not work (CNBC.com)

Germany Makes Its Big Bank Problem Even Bigger (Bloomberg.com)

Avoid ETF and Digital Gold – Access 7 Key Gold Must Haves here

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

18 Mar: USD 1,305.35, GBP 986.19 & EUR 1,150.01 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 1,302.35, GBP 981.55 & EUR 1,150.55 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 1,299.20, GBP 982.84 & EUR 1,148.88 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 1,308.40, GBP 994.25 & EUR 1,158.20 per ounce
12 Mar: USD 1,296.95, GBP 986.85 & EUR 1,150.78 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

18 Mar: USD 15.38, GBP 11.60 & EUR 13.54 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 15.35, GBP 11.58 & EUR 13.56 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 15.23, GBP 11.52 & EUR 13.48 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 15.52, GBP 11.80 & EUR 13.73 per ounce
12 Mar: USD 15.44, GBP 11.83 & EUR 13.72 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Happy Saint Patrick’s Day from GoldCore
– 188 Internet Shutdowns In 2018 Show Why Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection
– Buy Gold as Basel III Means “Central Banks and Banks Are Going To Be Buying Gold”
– Invest In Gold Or Bitcoin – Which Is The True Store Of Value?
– Silver Bullion Is The Portfolio Insurance To Buy Now
– EU Isn’t Ready for the Next Recession
–  JPMorgan Is Bullish on Gold as a Hedge Against Rising Inflation
– Gold – It Might Be Different This Time
– Euromillions Winners To Invest In Gold In 2019?

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

 

Tanzania is setting up government run mineral trading centres with the purpose of curbing illegal gold exports out of the country

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

Tanzania sets up mineral trading centers to curb illegal gold exports

 Section: 

By Fumbuka Ng’wanakilala
Reuters
Monday, March 18, 2019

DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania — Tanzania has ordered all mineral-producing regions in the East African nation to set up government-controlled trading centers by the end of June, accelerating efforts to curb illegal exports of gold and other precious minerals.

The trading centers will give small-scale miners direct access to a formal, regulated market where they can directly trade their gold. They currently struggle to access formal gold dealers, who are mostly based in the capital, Dar es Salam, and major towns.

… 

A statement from the prime minister’s office said the first mineral trading center was inaugurated Sunday in the northwestern town of Geita, close to the country’s biggest gold mine, owned by South Africa’s AngloGold Ashanti. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tanzania-mining/tanzania-sets-up-mine…

* * *

Join GATA here:

Mining Investment Asia
Marina Bay Sands Conference and Exhibition Center
Singapore
Tuesday-Thursday, March 26-28

https://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/

Mines and Money Asia
Hong Kong Conference and Exhibition Center
Wan Chai, Hong Kong
Tuesday-Thursday, April 2-4

https://asia.minesandmoney.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

Hemke writes at Sprott Money that another recession is coming to the uSA and this will likely prompt more QE and interest rate cuts.  If so precious metals will soar

(courtesy Craig Hemke/Sprott Money)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Ahead of the Fed

 Section: 

9:36a ICT Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Economic data suggests that another recession is coming to the United States and the world, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes today at Sprott Money, adding that this likely will prompt more “quantitative easing” and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Last time that happened, Hemke writes, monetary metals prices soared. His analysis is headlined “Ahead of the Fed” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/ahead-of-the-fed-craig-hemke-18-032019….

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

James Turk describes the ferocious shorting of gold futures trying to contain gold’s price

(courtesy James Turk/Kingworldnews)

Governments ‘ferociously’ shorting gold futures around Fed meeting, Turk tells KWN

 Section: 

9:50a ICT Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

As usual, governments and their agents are “ferociously” shorting gold futures around another meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, GoldMoney founder James Turk notes this week at King World News. But, Turk adds, gold is basically holding steady and thus building a strong base and showing that it is undervalued ahead of the next financial meltdown. Turk’s comments are posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-check-out-this-spectacular-multi-ye…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END


iii) Other Physical stories
My goodness:  Palladium is bid 1600 usa. About 21% of Palladium production comes  from Russia and they are contemplating withholding all of their precious metals.  Palladium is generally a bi product in the production of Nickel.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Palladium Panic-Bid To Record Highs As Putin Corners Market

Palladium soared to a new record high over $1600 an ounce overnight, up 27% year-to-date, as global supply concerns dominate slumping-auto-demand fears.

Palladium has become the precious-est of precious metals in 2019…

Up a stunning 89% from its August 2018 dip lows…

 

Even as auto sales in key markets slow around the world, Bloomberg reports that demand for the metal – mainly used in auto catalytic-converters in gasoline vehicles – has remained robust as manufacturers scramble to get hold of palladium to meet more stringent emissions controls, particularly in China.

“Though there are concerns that auto sales are falling, the supply deficit problem is offsetting it,”said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai, adding the market is highly overbought.

The metal’s rally is even stirring debate about whether automakers can make the switch to cheaper platinum to help control their costs.

“We remain bullish on palladium since the physical palladium market remains tight and it will take years to substitute,” analysts at Citigroup Inc. wrote in a March 19 report.

“However, at these higher prices we are acknowledging the increase in downside risks relating to potential substitution headlines.”

However, it is the supply-side of the equation that warrants more geopolitically-relevant analysis as Reuters reports that Russia is mulling a ban on the export of precious metals scrap and tailings to promote domestic refining of the materials.

“The market is in uncharted territory and on the fundamental side the ban from Russia has supported the prices,” Kedia added.

More than 80% of palladium comes as a byproduct from nickel mining in Russia and platinum mining in South Africa, so supplies depend on the extraction level in other minerals, and more specifically, Russia was responsible for around 21% of total palladium exports in 2017 by value.

With the price of palladium skyrocketing, that’s led to a rise in brazen thefts of catalytic converters, the Wall Street Journal reports. A Toyota Prius converter has about 2 grams of harvestable palladium, which can fetch about $450 at a scrapyard.

“We’ve had three different sets of parking lots hit, and they usually get four or five vehicles each time,” police Lt. Chuck Nagle in Vestavia Hills, Ala., told the WSJ.

“They’re usually taking them out of state and getting anywhere from $150 to $200 at a clip. … They’re not selling the part. They’re selling the metal.”

So with Putin cornering the palladium market (a precious metal 30 times more rare than gold), sending the price explosively higher, one wonders just what would happen if China chokes up supply of the rare earth metals that are so critical to much of America’s military-industrial complex?

-END-

Bill Holter…

We posted this article over the weekend …and they call us the crazies? Let’s look at this from a very broad standpoint because if anything displays where we are as a world, financial and otherwise is captured right here!

So, a bond offering with “the worst ever” covenants is three times oversubscribed causing a repricing with less discount and lower yield than originally offered? Is this important? Is it company or industry specific? Or, is it an illustration of something far larger and systemic? I would argue the problem is definitely systemic and certainly a symptom of “mob madness”.

Forget about company or industry specific because as it stands now, over $9 trillion worth of debt all over the world sits with negative yields! We won’t go over the topic of negative interest rates again (as we have several times in the past), because even a 6 year old understands it makes no sense and is untenable from a systemic standpoint. Suffice it to say, a snake can never eat its own tail and live to talk about it.

“$9 trillion”! Not a typo, but proof of financial insanity by those who own this debt. One should simply ask, “who” (with an actual brain in their head) would invest for a specific term where they are GUARANTEED a loss if they hold to maturity? This on its own should tell you some screws are loose in collective thought. But an offering with THE worst covenants ever, three times oversubscribed is a leap in stupidity. Why? Because we are talking about a weak credit to begin with, with almost no recourse for creditors … when TSHF.

Think of it this way, debt with negative yield is predominantly reserved for “better” credits (is there such a thing today?). But weak credits are still sought after like they will never be offered again. Not only will they be offered, they will be dumped like vomit in huge quantities! What we are witnessing has in the past been termed the “madness of crowds”. It has happened many times throughout history but mostly on a regional basis, this is global. Another illustration would be Argentina. They have defaulted four times in the last 100 years, yet they recently had an oversubscribed debt offering for …wait for it … yes you got it … A 100 YEAR TERM DEBT OFFERING! Which if I am not mistaken now yields over 50% because the original clamorous buyers turned into voracious sellers …

My point in writing this topic is simple, the financial (and world in general) world has lost its mind in totality. You as a reader, probably already understood this but I hope you feel “stronger” after finishing your read. You might be a value investor, or a precious metals investor and have been punished for your thought process. I might add, and probably branded a crazy by your so called friends and family. You are not. We live in a world where stupidity is mainstream and “news” as fake as it has become is believed without question.

Before finishing, I want to relay a recent conversation I had with a Merrill Lynch broker with nearly 40 years experience. While playing golf with him we talked about what we each did. I asked him if he had ANY precious metal exposure for his clients. He said no and I asked him why not? His response was amazing. Paraphrasing, he sold any and all gold/silver and has no plans on ever repurchasing because he was “right” about a strong dollar and it will remain king during the rest of his life … I asked him one question, but isn’t the US Treasury mathematically broke because there is no way interest, principal, and all the additional promises can be paid back in current dollar terms? He told me the Fed will print whatever is needed and not debase the currency because all the past printing since 2008 has shown no signs of debasement! And there you have it, here was a veteran broker who’s lost complete sense of history and logic.

Hopefully after reading this very uncomplicated piece, you have a better sense or feeling of your correct thought process. Just because the world has lost its mind, and call you the crazy one … does not mean they are correct… it only means they are in the majority. Idiocy will not rule in perpetuity because it cannot, either logically or mathematically. We live in the largest credit bubble in all of history and more engulfing by multiples than anything we have seen prior. The bubble, as ALL bubbles do will eventually end. In fact, we already hear air hissing from several puncture wounds. And with history as our guide, it will end badly as ALL previous bubbles have.

To finish, do not fret. We looked only at “buyers” of credit here and left out “asset values” created by the use of this credit which has created the EVERYTHING BUBBLE. I would simply ask, would you rather pay nothing for an ounce of gold (less than nothing for silver) which is a non liability asset ..or, grossly overpay for a steaming pile of liability shit as far as the eye can see? Your friends and family do not yet understand this question, but they surely will. I am also quite sure they will ask why no one ever warned them …!

Standing watch,
Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration

end

Aluminum giant Norks is crippled by a massive ransomware as its entire operation has been shut down

(courtesy zerohedge)

“The Situation Is Quite Severe”: Aluminum Giant Norsk Crippled By Massive Ransomware Attack

Two years after some of the world’s biggest corporations were hit by the WannaCry virus which morphed into the “biggest ransomware attack in history”, and which subsequently was found to have been created with NSA hacking software, on Tuesday, Norsk Hydro ASA, one of the world’s biggest aluminum producers, said it had suffered widespread production outages after a ransomware attack affected operations across Europe and the U.S.

Norsk Hydro: Hydro subject to cyber-attack

Hydro became victim of an extensive cyber-attack in the early hours of Tuesday (CET), impacting operations in several of the company’s business areas.

IT-systems in most business areas are impacted and Hydro is switching to manual operations as far as possible. Hydro is working to contain and neutralize the attack, but does not yet know the full extent of the situation.

The company called the situation “quite severe” and was still working to contain the effects of the attack, according to Bloomberg. Norsk couldn’t detail how much output had been impacted, but said the so-called potlines, which process molten aluminum and need to be kept running 24 hours a day, had switched to manual mode.

The cyber attack on Hydro began late Monday, escalating during the night, a spokeswoman said. Hydro, which also has major utility assets, said on its Facebook page that power plants are running normally on isolated IT systems. While the company’s website was down on Tuesday, Hydro “has established Facebook as our main external communication channel,” it said.

The attack comes as Hydro is in a protracted struggle to restart its Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil amid claims of environmental damage after flooding. The disruptions have weighed on the company’s shares, which are down 25 percent over the past year.

On a conference call with reporters, CFO Eivind Kallevik said the company didn’t know the identity of the hackers and that it has cyber insurance. The company’s shares slid modestly lower, down 1.1% to 35.44 kroner toward the close of trading in Oslo.

Norsk Hydro@NorskHydroASA

Hydro invites to a joint press and analyst meeting at 15:00 CET today where we will inform about the cyber-attack we are experiencing. To follow via webcast: http://webtv.hegnar.no/presentation.php?webcastId=97819442 

See Norsk Hydro’s other Tweets

According to spokesman Halvor Molland, some operations at plants where metal is fashioned into finished products for use in cars, planes and other manufactured goods, have been temporarily stopped, adding that the company is doing everything possible to fix the problem, but isn’t ready to give any forecasts yet, he told Bloomberg by phone.

Hydro, one of the world’s biggest aluminum producers, is a leading supplier of aluminum products in North American and European markets, providing highly-specialized parts to industrial customers.

Making those finished products can be highly automated, and involve extensive digital monitoring to ensure product quality, according to Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets Ltd.

“They’ll probably have to halt pretty much everything in the short term as they work on a back-up plan,” Hamilton told Bloomberg. “Operationally, this is distinctly challenging.” While a sustained outage at its downstream plants could cause turmoil for customers in end-use markets, prices are unlikely to react unless there’s a disruption to the supply of metal from the company’s primary production lines, Hamilton said.

As Bloomberg notes, “the attack was the latest to hit the commodities sector, where disruptions can quickly cascade down the supply chain. Prior to Norsk Hydro companies from zinc smelter Nyrstar NV to Saudi and Russian oil giants Aramco and Rosneft PJSC, shipping company AP Moller-Maersk A/S and agriculture trader Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. had been also hit by cyber attacks.”

While it remains to be seen just how impacted the company’s downstream production and supply chain will be, any protracted delay could unleash rippled effects across global commodity markets as Norsk Hydro has more than a dozen aluminum facilities in Europe, from Norway to the U.K., including primary metal and aluminum extrusion. The company’s market share in the extrusion segment is around 20 percent in Europe and 23 percent in North America.

It wasn clear as of publication time just what “ransom” the ransomware hackers was seeking, nor who they may be although we are confident Russia, China, Iran and North Korea will be promptly blamed if only on principle… even as companies are starting to realize that “cyber attacks” provide just the perfect explanation for missed analyst expectations and production plans.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

-END-

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7129/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7178   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 5.44 POINTS OR 0.18% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 57.27 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 17.65 POINTS OR 0.08%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.54/Euro RISES TO 1.1352

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.28/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 59/47 and Brent: 68.03

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP  /OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.09%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.46% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.15%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.39: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.74

3k Gold at $1307.75 silver at:15.39   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 9/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.30

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.28 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.00013 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1354 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.09%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.60% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.02%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4746

 

Euphoria: World Stocks In Longest Winning Streak Since Oct 2017

Defying all calls for a reversal to the extended stock rally, US equity futures continued to climb overnight ahead of tomorrow’s “either dovish or extremely dovish” FOMC meeting, rising alongside European stocks on Tuesday which snapped higher following a subdued session for Asian stocks as the Stoxx 50 printed 2019 highs, while the DAX stalled just shy of its 200DMA.

As a result, global shares enjoyed their longest winning streak since Oct 2017 ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting, while the pound jumped as algos bought the British currency after another dramatic twist in the Brexit plot bolstered bets on a lengthy delay to the process.

 

With traders expecting nothing but more good news from the Fed’s two-day meeting which starts later, which is expected to cut its “dot” forecast to just one rate hike in 2019 and at most one more in 2020, Europe’s early gains lifted MSCI’s All world index for a seventh straight day, the longest streak of consecutive gains since Oct 2017, and to its highest since October.

 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index advanced after a quiet start, as almost every sector turned green. Autos, basic resources and retailers lead indices higher, construction and real estate names underperform but trade little changed on the day.  Earlier in the session, Asia traded in a tight range as equities posted modest losses in Japan, China and Australia, but they rose in Hong Kong and India.

S&P futures rise over 11 points, rising to a fresh 5 month high and set for another green session after bank and tech stocks helped extend the year’s 20% charge for U.S. markets on Monday.

 

Meanwhile, price action remained muted in the bond space as Germany and US yield curves bull flatten at the margin. Gilts outperform, printing higher-highs since last

In FX, sterling rebounded back over 1.33 after slipping to as low as $1.3183 in the previous session as lawmakers cast doubt on Prime Minister Theresa May’s third attempt to get parliament to back her Brexit deal. As Reuters notes May’s Brexit plans were thrown into further turmoil on Monday when the speaker of parliament ruled that she could not put her divorce deal to a new vote unless it was re-submitted in fundamentally different form. May has only two days to win approval for her deal to leave the European Union if she wants to go to a summit with the bloc’s leaders on Thursday with something to offer them in return for more time. Meanwhile, senior diplomats said the European Union leaders could hold off making any final decision on any Brexit delay when they meet in Brussels later this week, depending on what exactly May asks them for.

“The predominant notion adopted by the market is that as long as the worst case scenario of hard Brexit is avoided by delaying Brexit, the pound is a buy on dips,” Rabobank strategists said in a note, however adding that “In the coming days faith amongst traders in an ability of UK MPs to make rational decisions could fade rapidly and cause a major selloff in GBP.”

The dollar was again feeling the strain of a dovish Fed, sliding to a two-week low on the bets that with both U.S. and global growth now slowing the Fed will need to put its rate hike plans on ice.

“The market has priced that the Fed’s next move will be a (rate) cut,” said Charles Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders, at adding that it may have to if U.S. data continues to sour and key indicators such as the U.S. yield curve start flashing warning signs again. As we discussed extensively in recent days, investors will particularly look to see whether FOMC officials have sufficiently lowered their interest rate forecasts to more closely align their “dot plot”, a diagram showing individual policymakers’ rate views for the next three years.

Traders will also be looking for more details on the Fed’s plan to stop cutting the Fed’s holdings of nearly $3.8 trillion in bonds. “A key focus is when the Fed will omit the word ‘patient’ from its statement, as that would be a pre-requisite for a rate hike,” said Toru Yamamoto, chief fixed income strategist at Daiwa Securities.

In the latest Brexit news, UK PM May is said to request a 9-12 months delay to Brexit, according to The Sun, while reports in the Guardian suggested that the EU will formally agree on Brexit delay this week. UK Conservative MPs reportedly demand a departure date from PM May in return for them passing her Brexit deal, while there were also reports that hardline Tory Brexiteers were said to have threatened to strike if PM May goes ahead with idea to delay Brexit by 1 year.

In geopolitical news, US Senior Arms Control Officials sated that Iran’s missile program destabilises the region and increases the risk of a regional arms race, US Official says it will aggressively counter Iran’s proliferation of ballistic missiles are unlawful arms transfers. Adding that the only way for North Korea to achieve security and development is to abandon all weapons of mass destruction along with all ballistic missile programs.

Meanwhile, oil prices hit 2019 highs, supported by supply cuts led by producer club OPEC. U.S. sanctions against oil producers Iran and Venezuela are also boosting prices, although traders said the market may be capped by rising U.S. output. WTI (+0.4%) and Brent (+0.5%) are somewhat firmer after a quiet overnight session, although WTI prices are inching closer to USD 60/bbl having surpassed the USD 59.50/bbl mark to the upside; as oil closed at its highest level YTD yesterday. News flow for the complex continues to be quiet after OPEC cancelled the April meeting and are to decide on output cuts in June. Gold (+0.2%) is largely unchanged, trading around the middle of the day’s range on a lack of catalysts and a subdued dollar ahead of this weeks key events. Elsewhere, spot Palladium has passed USD 1600/oz for the first time this morning following reports that Russia are considering a ban on the exports of precious metal scrap, in an attempt to promote domestic refining. Russian are one of the worlds top Palladium exporters, responsible for around 21% of total palladium exports in 2017 by value.

Top Market News

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,844.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 382.89
  • MXAP up 0.05% to 160.48
  • MXAPJ up 0.07% to 530.40
  • Nikkei down 0.08% to 21,566.85
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,610.23
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 29,466.28
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,090.98
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 38,287.56
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.09% to 6,184.79
  • Kospi down 0.09% to 2,177.62
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.076%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1355
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $67.81/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.1 bps to 2.101%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to 1.144%
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $67.81/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,305.56
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.38

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Federal Reserve officials say they’re willing to tolerate an overshoot of their inflation goal. If the opposite happens, the plan is less clear
  • The Trump administration lambasted socialism and the Democrats’ Medicare for All proposal while extolling the benefits of capitalism and its own tax cuts in the annual “Economic Report of the President”
  • A vote on Theresa May’s deal is now very unlikely this week, U.K. Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay said
  • The U.K. labor market remained in robust health in the three months through January, despite a Brexit-induced slowdown in the overall economy
  • Australia’s central bank is holding fire on interest rates, even as a slide in the nation’s home prices deepens, as it awaits a resolution to the divergence between strong hiring and decelerating economic growth
  • The partnership at the heart of the OPEC+ alliance showed further signs of strain after Russia pressured the Saudi-led group to delay a decision on the future of their production cuts

Asian stock indices traded indecisively amid a lack of key drivers for the region and with participants cautious ahead of the upcoming risk events. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was choppy as strength in mining names vied with the weakness in energy and financials in Australia, while jittery trade in the Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) largely reflected currency fluctuations. Elsewhere, sentiment in China was also fickle in which the Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) swung between gains and losses as focus centred on earnings and after the continued but tepid liquidity effort by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially quiet amid the indecisive risk sentiment in the region, although prices later found support following a 20yr auction in which all metrics improved from the previous month. RBA Minutes from March 5th meeting reiterated that the board sees no strong case for near-term move and that scenarios are more evenly balanced than last year. Furthermore, the board noted significant uncertainties regarding the economic outlook and that trade tensions remain source of uncertainty for global outlook but added that the labour market continued its improvement and that unemployment is seen to decline to 4.75%.

Top Asian News

  • Tencent Is Said to Target 10% of Managers for Cuts, Demotion
  • Hong Kong’s Weak Dollar Is a Victim of Surging China Stocks
  • Etihad Offers 24% Jet Air Stake to Lenders for INR4B: ET Now
  • Bocom Is Said to Cut Convertible-Bond Issue to $4.5 Billion

Major European equities are firmer [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%] following a relatively indecisive overnight session, where main Asian indices finished essentially flat ahead of this weeks key risk events. Notable movers this morning include Antofagasta (+4.0%) after FY earnings and the Co. stating they expect 2019 to be another record setting year, as such the Materials sector is higher by around 0.7%; more broadly all sectors are in the green. Towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600 are Deutsche Bank (-2.5%) and Commerzbank (-2.5%), likely affected by some retracement from yesterdays gains on conformation of merger discussion and Fitch stating that the talks highlight challenges and pressures of both banks to improve profitability. Commerzbank are also hampered by being downgraded at RBC. Elsewhere, following reports of a cyber attack, the impact of which is still being assessed, Norsk Hydro (-1.6%) are in the red; subsequent reports indicate that only the Co. has been affected by the attack.

Top European News

  • Switzerland Feb. Watch Exports Rose 3.4% Y/Y
  • U.K. Government Sees No Vote on Deal This Week: Brexit Update
  • Asos Falls Most in Three Months on Weak Second-Quarter Sales
  • Iliad Plunges as Customer Losses Drown Out Tower Ambitions

In FX, the The broad Dollar remains depressed in advance of FOMC day 1 amidst widespread anticipation that the March policy meeting will culminate in a further dovish shift via downgraded SEP forecasts and more details about the earlier end to QT. Indeed, the index has probed a fraction deeper beneath recent lows and is currently below key technical support at 96.434 (50% Fib retracement of the prior move from 95.157 to 97.711), which could be telling on a closing basis even before the Fed pronouncements tomorrow and Chair Powell’s presser.

  • G10 – Notwithstanding the generally soft Greenback, ranges are relatively tight with only marginal deviations around data for the likes of the Pound and Aussie. Cable has recovered from yesterday’s Brexit upset with the aid of an almost universally strong ONS labour market report to retest offers and resistance ahead of the 1.3300 level, while in contrast Aud/Usd has lost more momentum above 0.7100 after RBA minutes underlining the neutral stance and house price data compounding weakness in the economy overall. Elsewhere, Usd/Jpy has pulled back a bit further towards 111.00 having retreated through the 200 DMA at 111.45, but Eur/Usd is still butting up against upside chart hurdles above 1.1350, including a Fib at 1.1373, which represents a 50% reversal from 2019 high to low. The Franc is attempting to breach parity again following a solid Swiss trade surplus and pre-SNB, while the Loonie is also eyeing 1.3300 peaks vs its US counterpart against the backdrop of firmer crude prices. Back down under, the Kiwi is pivoting 0.6850 ahead of NZ Q4 current account data and the latest GDT auction.
  • Note, some BIG OPTION EXPIRIES could factor in the absence of anything more directional ahead of the NY cut today, with 1 bn in Cable at 1.3290-1.3300, 1.2 bn in Usd/Jpy between 11.30-40 and 1.3 bn in Aud/Jpy from 79.35-50 as the cross hovers just shy of 79.00.

In commodities, WTI (+0.4%) and Brent (+0.5%) are somewhat firmer after a quiet overnight session, although WTI prices are inching closer to USD 60/bbl having surpassed the USD 59.50/bbl mark to the upside; as oil closed at its highest level YTD yesterday. News flow for the complex continues to be quiet after OPEC cancelled the April meeting and are to decide on output cuts in June. Looking ahead we have the US API Weekly release, which previously indicated a crude stocks draw of 2.6M. Gold (+0.2%) is largely unchanged, trading around the middle of the day’s range on a lack of catalysts and a subdued dollar ahead of this weeks key events. Elsewhere, spot Palladium has passed USD 1600/oz for the first time this morning following reports that Russia are considering a ban on the exports of precious metal scrap, in an attempt to promote domestic refining. Russian are one of the worlds top Palladium exporters, responsible for around 21% of total palladium exports in 2017 by value.

In terms of the day ahead, outside of all things Brexit, we’ll get January factory orders and final January revisions to durable and capital goods orders. Away from that, the ECB’s Praet will speak this morning. Brazil President Bolsonaro will also visit the White House and meet with President Trump.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior -0.6%
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
  • 10am: Durables Ex Transportation, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I look forward to the latest TV viewing figures in the U.K. as I expect that the British Parliament channel will have gone up from a handful of MPs’ family members to a global fanbase of millions over the last few weeks. I’m surprised Netflix haven’t bought up the rights. Indeed, I was reading over the weekend that the speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow has become a mini celebrity in Germany, amongst other places. Even my daughter now shouts “order, order”. Well, after yesterday, his fame or infamy will multiply further. We were aware of the rule that you couldn’t bring back an identical motion to the House of Commons but we all assumed that enough precedent has already been thrown in the trash can over recent months in Parliament that if it were decided that a fresh vote may yield different numbers then it would easily find a way of happening.

However, the speaker Mr Bercow thought differently yesterday and actioned a ruling that was introduced in 1604 to prevent the government from bringing back the Withdrawal Agreement for a meaningful vote if there are no changes to it. The solicitor general said that “there were ways around this” but the reality is that 1) the DUP haven’t yet said they’d support the deal after hopes that the last 24 hours would see such an announcement and 2) time is running out to bring the vote before the EU summit on Thursday/Friday. We’d need to find an immediate way round the ruling and for a fresh vote to be announced tonight for it to come in time. Given the constitutional crisis and the current lack of DUP support, it now looks very likely that Mrs May will go to the EU summit to ask for an extension without MV3 having taken place and without a definitive plan as to what the extension is for. Meanwhile, The Sun reported late last night that PM May is drafting a letter to the EU Council President Donald Tusk to formally ask for a Brexit delay of between 9 to 12 months. The same report also added that hardline Tory Brexiteers are threatening to go on a strike if PM May indeed asks for such a lengthy delay.

Sterling followed the evolving news and with no sign of a breakthrough with the DUP it drifted lower all day before hitting a low of $1.3185 (-0.79% at that point) post the Bercow ruling but clawing back to $1.3255 at the close, still down -0.26% on the day. This morning we are up a little more at $1.3273 (+0.14%).

Markets did temporarily swoon alongside the slide in the pound, when the speaker intervention gave markets a bit of a shock. The S&P 500 dipped into negative territory and the VIX index rose almost a full point, but the moves subsequently retraced alongside the stabilisation in the pound. The S&P 500 ended the session +0.37% higher, with the NASDAQ up +0.25%. The DOW lagged a little again at +0.25%, as Boeing continued to underperform, shedding -1.77% and taking its six-session loss to -11.92%. Elsewhere, markets appeared to be waiting on the sidelines for some of the potentially bigger events later this week. The STOXX 600 closed +0.27% and traded in the smallest range (0.29%) since January 21st. In terms of sectors, there was a decent outperformance for energy and financials, with telecoms and utilities struggling.

Energy got a boost as WTI climbed +0.80% after OPEC+ came to the joint recommendation to delay a decision on extending production cuts to June. In rates, Treasuries were marginally weaker with 2y and 10y yields just over+1bp higher while the 2s10 curve remained comfortably within its recent range at 14.9bps. In Europe, the periphery was the bigger winner with BTPs -3.9bps tighter and yields in Portugal -4.7bps lower following the sovereign rating upgrade by S&P on Friday. Emerging markets outperformed, the MSCI index gaining +1.11% to reach its highest level since last August. The Brazilian real (+0.59%) and Indian rupee (+0.82%) led gains in the currency space with an index of EM FX advancing +0.31%.

It seems like markets are in something of a holding pattern ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting. Our economists have published their expectations here , and they expect few surprises in the statement or Powell’s rhetoric. They anticipate the median rate expectation for 2019 will fall to one hike, and will be monitoring for any signals about balance sheet policy or what conditions are needed to allow for another hike. Matt Luzzetti also published a note yesterday ( here ) which shows that higher Fed rate hike pricing is actually, and somewhat counterintuitively, consistent with easier financial conditions. This is because positive economic data helps equities and credit, while also boosting confidence that the Fed can hike. So we certainly seem to be in a “good news is good news” environment.

Overnight, markets in Asia are heading lower in the absence of any clear fresh drivers with the Nikkei (-0.12%), Hang Seng (-0.23%), Shanghai Comp (-0.22%) and Kospi (-0.11%) all down. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.06%) are trading flattish and the Japanese yen is up +0.15%, along with most G10 currencies this morning.

Back to yesterday and on the data front, the euro area trade balance for January was slightly larger than expected at €17bn on a seasonally adjusted basis, and the December figure was revised upwards as well. That likely reflects somewhat tepid European demand earlier this year, though it could also indicate some improvement in the external environment. In the US, the NAHB survey for March printed at 62, the same as in February, which signals some evidence of conditions bottoming out, though there isn’t much sign of a more robust rebound. Homebuilder stocks underperformed, falling -0.34%.

In terms of the day ahead, outside of all things Brexit, this morning we get the January and February employment report in the UK, where the consensus is for an unchanged earnings reading (+3.4% 3m/yoy) and unemployment rate (+4.0%). We’ll also get January construction output data for the Euro Area, Q4 labour costs data for the Euro Area and the March ZEW survey in Germany. In the US, we’ll get January factory orders and final January revisions to durable and capital goods orders. Away from that, the ECB’s Praet will speak this morning. Brazil President Bolsonaro will also visit the White House and meet with President Trump.

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.44 POINTS OR 0.18% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 57.27 POINTS OR 0.19%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 17.65 POINTS OR 0.08%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .11%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7129 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 59.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.03 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN 

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.71329 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7178 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

USA and China again clash over China’s One Belt and Road Initiative

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

US, China Clash Over ‘Belt And Road’ In Afghan Resolution 

The United States and China unleashed a war of words Friday (Mar 15) over Beijing’s $1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) after the United Nation Security Council adopted a resolution extending the mandate of the council’s political mission in Afghanistan for another six months, reported The Washington Post.

The 2018 resolution extended the council’s mission for a year aimed at strengthening regional economic cooperation involving Afghanistan, including the BRI to connect China to Europe, and Africa. The 2016 and 2017 resolutions had similar BRI language.

Council diplomats said China wanted to embed BRI language into the 2019 resolution, but the U.S. strongly objected.

U.S. deputy ambassador Jonathan Cohen said that “China held the resolution hostage and insisted on making it about Chinese national political priorities rather than the people of Afghanistan.”

Cohen said the U.S. rejected China’s demand “that the resolution highlights its belt and road initiative, despite its tenuous ties to Afghanistan and known problems with corruption, debt distress, environmental damage, and lack of transparency.

China’s deputy ambassador Wu Haitao shot back at the U.S., informing the council that Cohen’s comments were “at variance with the facts and are fraught with prejudice.”

“This is an initiative of economic cooperation aimed at achieving common development and prosperity. It has nothing to do with geopolitics,” said Haitao.

Haitao told the council since the BRI was launched in 2013, 123 countries and 29 international organizations have signed agreements of cooperation with China on infrastructure development programs.

The sharp exchange came as Washington and Beijing have canceled a trade summit between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping to end the trade war. The proposed meeting to sign a trade agreement has been pushed out to June, a move that shows the trade war is deepening.

Now that the U.S. demands all communication about the BRI be removed from future resolutions. This follows sharp criticism late last year when Vice President Mike Pence said the BRI left countries drowning in debt.

The Trump administration continues to bash the BRI, but the trade scheme continues to draw massive support from around the world. Expected later this week, Italy will sign a memorandum of understanding to join the BRI officially, a move that has deeply annoyed Washington.

end
The real reason:  Huawei is leaving the USA well behind in technology development re the new 5 G  (5th Generation) wireless network
(Mish Shedlock//Mishtalk

Real Reason Behind Washington’s Huawei Ban: US Wants To Spy And China Won’t Cooperate

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The UK, Germany, India, and the United Arab Emirates are among the countries resisting US pressure to ban Huawei.

The New York Times reports U.S. Campaign to Ban Huawei Overseas Stumbles as Allies Resist.

Over the past several months, American officials have tried to pressure, scold and, increasingly, threaten other nations that are considering using Huawei in building fifth-generation, or 5G, wireless networks. Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, has pledged to withhold intelligence from nations that continue to use Chinese telecom equipment. The American ambassador to Germany cautioned Berlin this month that the United States would curtail intelligence sharing if that country used Huawei.

But the campaign has run aground. Britain, Germany, India and the United Arab Emirates are among the countries signaling they are unlikely to back the American effort to entirely ban Huawei from building their 5G networks. While some countries like Britain share the United States’ concerns, they argue that the security risks can be managed by closely scrutinizing the company and its software.

The United States is not ready to admit defeat, but its campaign has suffered from what foreign officials say is a scolding approach and a lack of concrete evidence that Huawei poses a real risk. It has also been hampered by a perception among European and Asian officials that President Trump may not be fully committed to the fight.

Mr. Trump has repeatedly undercut his own Justice Department, which unveiled sweeping criminal indictments against Huawei and its chief financial officer with accusations of fraud, sanctions evasion and obstruction of justice. Mr. Trump has suggested that the charges could be dropped as part of a trade deal with China. The president previously eased penalties on another Chinese telecom firm accused of violating American sanctions, ZTE, after a personal appeal by President Xi Jinping of China.

One senior European telecommunications executive said that no American officials had presented “actual facts” about China’s abuse of Huawei networks.

US Threats and Bullying

The American ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, wrote a letter a letter to Berlin, warning of repercussions should it use Huawei. Germany politely told the Trump administration to go to hell according to the Times.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel responded Germany was “defining our standards for ourselves.”

Cut Back Or Else

in its report Drop Huawei or See Intelligence Sharing Pared Back, U.S. Tells Germany.

In a letter to the country’s economics minister, U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard A. Grenell wrote allowing the participation of Huawei or other Chinese equipment vendors in the 5G project would mean the U.S. won’t be able to maintain the same level of cooperation with German security agencies. The letter marks the first known time the U.S. has explicitly warned an ally that refusing to ostracize Huawei could lessen security cooperation with Washington. Among other things, European security agencies have relied heavily on U.S. intelligence in the fight against terrorism.

Mr. Grenell’s letter notes that secure communications systems are essential for defense and intelligence cooperation, including within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and that companies such as Huawei and state-controlled ZTE Corp. could compromise the confidentiality of these exchanges.

His letter noted that under Chinese legislation, Chinese companies could be compelled to assist their country’s vast security apparatus without any democratic checks and balances, and that it would be impossible to mitigate that risk. He also noted that the code running on 5G equipment would need frequent updates and was so complex that the potential for so-called backdoors and other system vulnerabilities couldn’t be ruled out even if Huawei were to let regulators regularly inspect its software.

Huawei, which is an employee-owned company, has strongly denied that it has ever spied for the Chinese government or would consider doing so.

Germany’s Concerns

There is no evidence. Germany’s concerns are understandable.

  1. Germany uses Huawei equipment for its 4G network. To be backward compatible, Germany needs to use Huawei for 5G.
  2. Other vendors would be far more expensive.
  3. Selecting another vendor might set Germany back two years.
  4. The number of Trump’s demands on the EU have escalated and the EU is sick of Trump’s sanctions, meddling, and overall pettiness that isn’t consistent or believable in many cases.

I side with Germany on all counts.

But it’s a Financial Times article that really explains what’s going on. “The proliferation of our technology hampers American efforts to spy on whomever it wants,” says Huawei executiuve Guo Ping in an Op-Ed article US Attacks on Huawei Betray its Fear of Being Left Behind.

Ping points out that the US’s NSA sought to “collect it all”, every phone call or communication in the world.

If the NSA wants to modify routers or switches in order to eavesdrop, a Chinese company will be unlikely to co-operate. This is one reason why the NSA hacked into Huawei’s servers. “Many of our targets communicate over Huawei-produced products,” a 2010 NSA document states. “We want to make sure that we know how to exploit these products.”

Unconstitutional Ban

On March 6, the Financial Times reported Huawei Lawsuit Accuses US of ‘Unconstitutional’ Equipment Ban.

US is Behind, Fears It Cannot Manipulate Huawei

It’s not fear of Chinese spying, but rather Huawei will make US spying more difficult.

The top secret documents leaked by whistle blower hero Edward Snowden prove the US spied on anything and everything including Chancellor Merkel.

Secondly, China invested far more in 5G technology than the US. Eliminating Huawei is one way to catch up.

Germany protested not only because Huawei would be backward compatible and cheaper, but also because there was no other competition that had Huawei’s features, at any price.

No Evidence

It is not surprising in the least that the US has conjured up fantasies that are roughly 180 degrees opposite of the view it presents in its bullying efforts.

Despite demands of evidence by China, Germany, the UK and other countries that China poses a risk, the US has not shared a shred of evidence with anyone.

The logical conclusion is the US has nothing but conjecture and a pack of lies.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

France:

France is set to ban the yellow vest protests in neighborhoods with ultra radicals.  Good luck to Macron on this one.

(courtesy zerohedge)

France To Ban Yellow Vest Protests In Neighborhoods With “Ultra” Radicals

France is cracking down on “yellow vest” protesters following a weekend of renewed violence – as the Macron administration announced on Monday that it would ban demonstration in several areas of France – including the Champs Elysees in Paris, if “ultra elements” are present, according to Interior Minister Edouard Philippe.

‘We will ban demonstrations if ultra elements’ are present, said Philippe, according to CNEWS.

The ban will apply to “neighborhoods that have been most affected as soon as we have knowledge of” the “ultras.”

“I am thinking of course the Champs-Elysees in Paris, the place Pey-Berland in Bordeaux, the Capitol Square in Toulouse”, Philippe added, where “we will proceed to the immediate dispersal of all groups.

Philippe added that he has asked the State Judicial Agent to “systematically seek the financial responsibility of troublemakers.”

Edouard Philippe

@EPhilippePM

A Toulouse, à Bordeaux, à Montpellier, à Saint-Etienne, trop de commerçants depuis mi-novembre ont vu leur outil de travail saccagé. Un plan de soutien a été décidé et j’ai demandé à @BrunoLeMaire de le renforcer.

Edouard Philippe

@EPhilippePM

J’ai demandé à l’Agent Judiciaire de l’État de rechercher systématiquement la responsabilité financière des fauteurs de trouble.

Saturday marked a significant escalation in violence during the group’s 18th straight week of protests – which began as a revolt against a climate-change gas tax and expanded into a general anti-government movement.

Embedded video

Bellingdog@Bellingdawg

Ready for a bit of the old ultraviolence?

Embedded video

lil g@lili_gasparr

THE SAINT SULPICE IN PARIS JUST IGNITED WHILE I WAS INSIDE

As we noted on Sunday, the riots were so severe that French President Emmanuel Macron cut short a vacation at the La Mongie ski resort in the Hautes-Pyrénées following a three-day tour of East Africa which took him to Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya.

Macron said over Twitter that “strong decisions” were coming to prevent more violence.

Macron said some individuals — dubbed “black blocs” by French police forces — were taking advantage of the protests by the Yellow Vest grassroots movement to “damage the Republic, to break, to destroy.” Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said on Twitter that those who excused or encouraged such violence were complicit in it. –Bloomberg

Sounds like things are about to get a lot more violent in Gay Paree.

end

A humourous accounting of the absurdity of three votes on the exact legislation that has already been defeated three times already.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Brexit Hits Peak Absurdity And Bill Blain Explains It All

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

“I have not failed, I’ve just found another way that doesn’t work…”

For Non-British readers who are perhaps unfamiliar with the complexities of British Parliamentary procedure and don’t understand the latest confubbelings of the Brexit Debate – let me try to explain in a concise and clear manner the latest moves in this complex and fascinating game of going absolutely nowhere. We do hope you are enjoying the show, and that it doesn’t put you off visiting sometime soon.

Last night the Speaker of the House of Commons launched his Quaffle – which is allowed under parliamentary rules laid down in 1604 – effectively telling Premier Theresa May: “you can’t keep voting on the same motion you already lost.” May’s lawyer will stutter something about that being a Pre-Guy Fawkes rule and therefore out of play till after Easter, and she can still play her Community Chest card and collect £200 as she passes go.

Now some people might be slightly confused by the use of the Quaffle, but it’s designed to overcome any thoughts that politics can be reduced to a game of brinksmanship – therefore it rules out anyone voting against something impossible last week then voting for the same thing as possible this week because nothing has changed. Clear?

Later today, the minister for the 17th Centure, Jacob Rees-Mogg, will set free his Bludger, explaining that following the extraordinary precedent established in 1649 and the beheading of Charles the First, then its constitutionally requited for The Speaker to declare Britain will now leave with a No Deal vote. We don’t actually have a constitution, but Mr Mogg will explain that if we did, it would probably say something like that..

Unfortunately, under the rules established by the treaty of Rannoch in 1716, setting free a Bludger gives the Scots an automatic right to a lightly opposed Jacobite Rebellion. Since no one really wants bludgeoned to death with a blunt claymore anymore, the SNP will be seeking advice as to giving Jacobite uprisings legal equivalency to a new referendum on Independence. At this point its entirely possible some band of flag-waving wandering Remoaners will demand they should also get a second (best of three) referendum, because if they don’t then its unfair and will make them cry. The DUP from Norn Iron will invade Kamchatka via Alaska – which is the only way to win Risk.

Later this afternoon, the second house of the UK parliament – the as yet unconsulted House of Lords (which comprises of people who are there by dint of great-mummy or daddy sucking up a king, having previously failed as MPs, or simply because they’ve paid a lot of money to political parties (not bribes, definitely not bribes)) will set free their Golden Snitch to register their upset and complaint that no has listening to them yet, and they’ve got lots of interesting things to say. The Golden Snitch, pretty much like the House of Lords, is something of an irrelevance, and I can’t quite remember what it’s for.

Meanwhile, in Europe, Nigel Farage will be taking out the Hungarians for a “proper lunch” in order to persuade them to say “No Extension.”

With classic British understatement, the Solicitor General, Robert Buckland told the BBC: “Frankly we could have done without this…”

I hope that’s made it all clear? If not don’t call me

end

Oh Oh! France’s macron rejects the BREXIT delay. Remember that they need all 27 EU members to vote in the affirmative

(courtesy zerohedge)

Sterling Slides As French President Rejects Brexit Delay

Amid yet another week of chaos in the Brexit debacle, cable just legged lower as Bloomberg reports that the French Presidency has warned that there will be “no Brexit extension if it’s simply to gain time.”

This could be just posturing of course but remember all 27 EU members have to agree…

 

Developing…

end

European banks continue to underperform all over banks: they are now approaching the “doom loop”

(courtesy zerohedge)

European Banks’ Inescapable “Doom-Loop”

With Deutsche Brothers Bank on its back and Draghi flip-flopping back to his uber-dovish, yield-curve-collapsing alter-ego, Bloomberg’s Heather Burke details how European banks are caught in an under-performance ‘doom-loop’.

Via Bloomberg,

European banks are poised to underperform in 2019, thanks to structural cracks that cheap valuations can’t paper over.

The region’s lenders have been blighted by record-low interest rates and sovereign debt crises. The initial negative reaction of their stocks to a new round of loans from the European Central Bank – which are expected to have less favorable terms than in the past – attests to how much support they still need.

Sure, at first glance bank valuations look cheap – but given the macro backdrop, perhaps not cheap enough.

Lenders on the Stoxx 600 trade at 0.74 estimated price-to-book, about an 11% discount to the 10-year average. That compares with a multiple of almost 1.2 for S&P 500 banks.

Italian lenders are cheaper still, thanks to bad loans and an overhang of political concern in the wake of last year’s budget saga. They hold the EU’s biggest pile of soured debt – one of the reasons they have a 12-month forward price-to-book of less than 0.6.

True, European banks can offer juicy, stable dividends. The ratio between their 12-month forward dividend yield (5.8%) and that of the Stoxx 600 as a whole (3.9%) is near the highest since 2016.

Yet their earnings growth is expected to stall this year. EPS for Stoxx 600 banks in 2019 is projected to be little changed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, after rising almost 5% last year.

The big problem?

The euro-zone economy is slowing again. The ECB’s downgrade of the growth outlook this month was one of the biggest in years, while the Bundesbank gave up on a first-quarter rebound in Germany as the nation’s industry stumbled. It’s all set the stage for low rates into the foreseeable future.

That’s the doom loop — slowing growth and low yields, a toxic combination for banks. Until that changes, there’s little prospect for their earnings, valuations or share prices to improve.

end

And on the same topic as above:  Germany without a doubt makes its big bank problem even bigger with the proposed merger of Deutsche bank and Commerzbank

(courtesy zerohedge)

Germany Makes Its Big Bank Problem Even Bigger

EU and ECB Need To Be Ready For The Consequences If This Doesn’t End Well

by Bloomberg Editorial Board

Germany has come up with a solution to the deep troubles at one of the world’s largest banks: make it part of an even bigger one.

The people who oversee Europe’s financial system had better be ready for the consequences if this doesn’t end well.

The Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank is in talks to merge with crosstown rival Commerzbank — a move that Germany’s finance ministry has favored for months. The result would be a behemoth with assets of about 1.8 trillion euros, equivalent to more than half of Germany’s annual economic output; the merged bank would be Europe’s third biggest after the U.K.’s HSBC and France’s BNP Paribas.

The deal is a short-term answer to a politically fraught question — what to do about a struggling and systemically important institution. After a series of unsuccessful turnaround efforts, Deutsche Bank has been in what its own chief financial officer described as “a vicious circle of declining revenues, sticky expenses, lowered ratings and rising funding costs,” exacerbated by numerous international money-laundering probes.

The proposed merger will provide a brief respite, but is unlikely to solve the underlying problems.

The combined bank will be able to reduce costs by cutting staff. However, the deal won’t lessen competition from hundreds of regional public-sector banks for relatively inexpensive deposit funding. It won’t help Deutsche figure out how to handle its legal issues, or revive or dispose of its investment banking unit. In fact, the complications of merging have the potential to distract attention from the real issues that both institutions and Germany’s entire banking industry need to address.

The crucial question is what happens if the combined bank remains financially fragile — or if another crisis hits before it finds its footing. Under Europe’s new banking union, supranational supervisors led by the European Central Bank can deem an institution unviable, take it over and dismantle it before the damage spreads. But they’ve never tried this with an institution remotely as big as Deutsche, let alone Deutsche-Commerzbank, and one doubts they have the necessary resources to undertake such a challenge.

To guard against this risk, Europe’s regulators should require the combined institution to have ample equity capital to absorb any losses. (As things stand, a loss of a few percent of assets could leave it distressed.)

They should also press the bank to simplify its operations and lay out a realistic crisis plan — a process that has only just begun. Beyond that, Europe’s governments need to give the Single Resolution Board better access to financing, so it can keep critical operations up and running if a big institution fails.

One hopes Deutsche-Commerzbank will find a business model that benefits the economy and works for shareholders. But in case it doesn’t, Europe should be prepared with a plan to wind it down. The alternative would be embarrassing as well as expensive: Germany, which has always insisted on strict rules against bailouts in the banking union, may find itself keeping the bank afloat at taxpayers’ expense.

-END-

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

Canada

Seems that our Prime Minister Trudeau has some problems as more top bureaucrats unexpectedly quit amid the growing corruption scandal involving SNC Lavalin

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trudeau’s Top Bureaucrat Unexpectedly Quits Amid Growing Corruption Scandal

Since it was exposed by a report in Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper earlier this month, the scandal that’s become known as the SNC-Lavalin affair has already led to the firing of several of Trudeau’s close advisors and raised serious questions about whether the prime minister was complicit in pressuring the attorney general to offer a deferred prosecution agreement with a large, Quebec-based engineering firm.

And according to the first round of polls released since the affair exploded into public view…

…it could cost Trudeau his position as prime minister and return control to the conservatives, according to the CBC.

Campaign Research showed the Conservatives ahead with 37% to 32% for the Liberals, while both Ipsos and Léger put the margin at 36% to 34% in the Conservatives’ favour. Since December, when both polling firms were last in the field, the Liberals have lost one point in Campaign Research’s polling and four percentage points in the Ipsos poll, while the party is down five points since November in the Léger poll.

Meanwhile, as the noose tightens around Trudeau, on Monday another of the key Canadian government officials at the center of the SNC-Lavalin scandal has quit his post.

Michael Wernick, clerk of the privy council, the highest-ranking position in Canada’s civil service and a key aide to Justin Trudeau, announced his retirement Monday. Trudeau named Ian Shugart, currently deputy minister of foreign affairs, to replace him.

In a scathing letter to Trudeau, Wernick said that “recent events” led him to conclude he couldn’t hold his post during the election campaign this fall.

“It is now apparent that there is no path for me to have a relationship of mutual trust and respect with the leaders of the opposition parties,” he said, citing the need for impartiality on the issue of potential foreign interference. According to Bloomberg, the exact date of his departure is unclear.

As we reported in February, Canada’s former justice minister and attorney general, Jody Wilson-Raybould, quit following allegations that several key Trudeau government figures pressured her to intervene to end a criminal prosecution against Montreal-based construction giant SNC. Wernick was among those she named in saying the prime minister’s office wanted her to pursue a negotiated settlement.

Wernick has since twice spoken to a committee of lawmakers investigating the case, and during that testimony both defended his actions on the SNC file and warned about the risk of foreign election interference, as “blame Putin” has become traditional Plan B plan for most politicians seeing their careers go up in flames.

“I’m deeply concerned about my country right now, its politics and where it’s headed. I worry about foreign interference in the upcoming election,” he said in his first appearance before the House of Commons justice committee, before repeating the warning a second time this month. “If that was seen as alarmist, so be it. I was pulling the alarm. We need a public debate about foreign interference.”

Because somehow foreign interference has something to do with Wenick’s alleged corruption.

Incidentally, as we wonder what the real reason is behind Wernick’s swift departure, we are confident we will know soon enough.

Anyway, back to the now former clerk, who is meant to be non-partisan in service of the government of the day, also criticized comments by a Conservative senator and praised one of Trudeau’s cabinet ministers.

Wernick’s testimony was criticized as overly cozy with the ruling Liberals. Murray Rankin, a New Democratic Party lawmaker, asked the clerk how lawmakers could “do anything but conclude that you have in fact crossed the line into partisan activity?” Green Party Leader Elizabeth May said he seemed “willing to interfere in partisan fashion for whoever is in power.”

Whatever Wernick’s true motives, he is the latest but not last in what will be a long line of cabinet departures as the SNC scandal exposes even more corruption in Trudeau’s cabinet (some have ironically pointed out that Canada’s “beloved” prime minister could be gone for actual corruption long before Trump). Trudeau had already lost a top political aide, Gerald Butts, to the scandal. A second minister, Jane Philpott, followed Wilson-Raybould in quitting cabinet.

Separately, on Monday, Trudeau appointed a former deputy prime minister in a Liberal government, Anne McLellan, as a special adviser to investigate some of the legal questions raised by the controversy. They include how governments should interact with the attorney general and whether that role should continue to be held by the justice minister.

As Bloomberg notes, the increasingly shaky Liberal government hasn’t ruled out helping SNC by ordering a deferred prosecution agreement in the corruption and bribery case, which centers around the company’s work in Moammar Qaddafi’s Libya. Doing so would allow the company to pay a fine and avoid any ban on receiving government contracts. That decision is up to the current attorney general, David Lametti; of course, such an action would only raise tensions amid speculation that the government is pushing for a specific political, and favorable for Trudeau, outcome.

END
Mish Shedlock talks about the death of globalization and how it is accelerating as total global trade declines
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

The Death Of Globalization Accelerates As Global Trade Declines

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The change in total global exports has now gone negative…

Barron’s has an interesting article How Investors Should Navigate Globalization’s Decline.

A decadeslong drive toward freer trade across borders has begun to reverse. Globalization is being overwhelmed by populism, nationalism, and protectionism.

Brexit threatens to erect new trade barriers between the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe. India just moved to limit foreign operators selling goods online.

“I probably never would have said it was going to end, but I’m starting to wonder,” says Don Allan, chief financial officer at Stanley Black & Decker. “The trend seems to be heading that way. Countries are becoming more focused on protecting their world and less on how to work together as a global economy.”

China Decreasing Influence Percentagewise

GoerTek , a Chinese company that makes Apple’s AirPods, reportedly told suppliers last year that it was moving production to Vietnam. It will join companies like LG Electronics (066570.South Korea) and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF). And it’s not just tech: Chemical company Huntsman (HUN) announced last summer that it had opened a plant in Vietnam, its first in Asia outside China. In fact, manufacturing grew more in Vietnam than in any other major Asian country last year, IHS Markit has calculated.

Misleading Percentages

The above chart and a focus on percentages is misleading.

The US trade deficit with China has been hitting fresh highs.

Tariffs, Robotics, Wages, Transportation Costs

The article concluded “The tectonic plates of global trade are in motion. Even a handshake between Trump and Xi won’t stop that shift.”

I agree, but shifts were underway before Trump became president. But as the article notes, Trump’s tariffs definitely accelerated the trend.

It was a rise in labor costs in China that led to China losing manufacturing jobs not only to robots but to Vietnam.

Manufacturing Employment

Thanks to robots, some manufacturing has returned, but without the jobs. It takes fewer and fewer people to do anything. Minus wages and transportation costs, it makes sense for manufacturing to be close to the end buyer.

Yesterday’s Battle

Trump is fighting a losing battle.

Manufacturing those jobs are gone and they won’t return.

Real Problem

Trump has his eyes in the rear view mirror. He wants to bring back manufacturing jobs when those jobs are in decline for the long haul.

More problematic for the US is China’s new focus on high-end technology as opposed to routine assembly.

Huawei, a Chinese corporation, is the world’s reader in 5G technology.

Trump seeks to put an end to that by claiming Huawei is an espionage threat. For discussion, please see Real Reason Trump Wants to Ban Huawei: US Wants to Spy and China Won’t Cooperate.

The US needs to focus on the jobs of the future, not the jobs of the past.

Trade talks with a spotlight on soybeans, phone assemblies, etc will not do the US a damn bit of good. Tariffs have not and will not solve a single problem.

Meanwhile, somehow the US has fallen behind on 5G. That’s not good to say the least.

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

India/China

This is worrisome: A former envoy to Pakistan is warning that India’s massive navy operation is a warning to Beijing and not necessary Pakistan. China is supporting Pakistan is a very big way:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Former India Envoy To Pakistan: Massive Navy Operation A Warning To Beijing

Former Indian government officials and military analysts have told Russian media sources that India’s large scale naval deployment, including nuclear submarines and an aircraft carrier, was fundamentally aimed at sending a message to China, not necessarily Pakistan.

 

Indian warships on parade off the coast of Mumbai, via Reuters.

A major naval deployment exercise called TROPEX 2019 involving some 60 ships and an equal number of aircraft had been slated to run from January to early March, but according to reports quickly turned into a real time operational situation following the Feb. 27 crisis over Kashmir.

Notably, the games which had already been underway at the time of the crisis had involved the INS ‘Vikramaditya,’ a Russian-built aircraft carrier, and multiple other nuclear submarines essentially becoming “active” as the situation unfolded.

But now Indian analysts in an interview with Russia’s RT have presented the interesting prospect that the TROPEX 2019 naval exercises-turned-“active” was “a clear signal to Beijing, rather than Islamabad.”

“China is using Pakistan as a tool to contain India, so the redeployment of an aircraft carrier, warships and nuclear-powered submarines to North Arabian Sea is a clear signal to Beijing, rather than Islamabad,” the analysts, including former Indian envoy to Pakistan Gopalaswami Parthasarathytold RT.

Parthasarathy insisted that “India does not base its defense preparedness on what Pakistan does or does not do,” however cited India’s greater concern as what China does to contain Indian influence in the Indian Ocean.”

Once India’s top envoy to its rival nuclear-armed neighbor, Parthasarathy continued, “Pakistan is an instrument used by China to contain India through supplies of weapons, missiles and even nuclear weapon designs.” And he emphasized further while significantly downplaying Islamadad as a threat: “Pakistan, by itself, does not worry us. We can more than match and manage Pakistan.”

According to Indian military statements the continued deployment of the vessels is intended “to prevent, deter and defeat any misadventure by Pakistan in the maritime domain.” Indian Navy statements further confirmed that the warships which had been part of the TROPEX 2019 exercises had “swiftly transited from exercise to operational deployment mode.” 

Their continued operational deployment in the Arabian Sea and beyond in the Indian Ocean threatens to bring tensions further to a head between Islamabad and New Delhi following recent revelations that each side had informed the other of missile launch preparations last month, nearly stoking an all out war.

Echoing former diplomat Parthasarathy’s sentiment, Indian military journalist, Shiv Aroor, also noted that Pakistan doesn’t maintain nuclear submarines or aircraft carriers. Thus the real concern is “if maritime hostilities [between India and Pakistan] ever did break out in whatever form, China would almost definitely be in the mix.”

He warned further that “China has a significantly larger navy than India’s, with a much more robust submarine force.”

Last year, following a terror attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi reportedly by a group angered over China’s deep investment and construction inroads into Pakistan as part of President Xi’s Belt and Road initiative, which has seen $60 billion go toward China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Chinese officials reaffirmed the bilateral alliance between Beijing and Islamabad as “higher than the mountains and deeper than the sea.”

Statements made at the time by Lijian Zhao, deputy chief of mission at the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad, described further that “The friendship has never been empty talks, but deeply imprinted in hearts of Chinese and Pakistani people.”

At the same time India and China have emerged as the region’s largest economic and military rivals vying for influence in central Asia, and at times in recent history and beyond even entering into armed confrontations along disputed border sections.

Indian officials have given a public “debriefing” of the TROPEX 2019 exercises on Monday presumably as part of continued war propaganda to scare off any potential Pakistani aggression. This comes after over a week ago Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said the country was ready for war and its army would respond if attacked by India or “any superpower” during a speech in southeast Pakistan’s Chachro town.

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1352 UP .0016 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.28  DOWN .100 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3277    UP   0.0014  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3310 DOWN .0029 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 16 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1352 Last night Shanghai composite closed DOWN 5.44 POINTS OR 0.18%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 57.27  POINTS OR 0.19% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.11%/EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 17.65 POINTS OR 0.08% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 57.27 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.44 POINTS OR 0.18% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .11%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 17.65 POINTS OR 0.08%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1307.90

silver:$15.40

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.60% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.02 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.34 DOWN 18 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.30% UP 4  in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.04%  DOWN  0   BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.17% UP 2   IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.48 UP 6    POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 131 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES  TO +.10%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.38% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1347 UP    .0011 or 11 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.38 DOWN .0080 OR YEN UP 1 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3264 DOWN .001( POUND DOWN 1  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 39 basis points to 1.3300

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7119    0N SHORE  (UP)

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7133(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4777

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.04%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.61 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.01 UP 0  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.39 DOWN 14 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP  34.40 OR 0.47%

German Dax : UP 142.35 POINTS OR 1.22%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 17.00 POINTS OR  0.31%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 88.60 POINTS OR  0.94%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 244.54 POINTS OR 1.06%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.02 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 67.56 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    64.43  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.07 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 7 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO +.10 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.87

 

 

BRENT :  67.44

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.61…DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.02..

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1359 ( UP 22   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.38 DOWN .030 (YEN UP 3 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.37 DOWN 15 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3275  up 11 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4777

the Russian rouble 64.35   UP .01 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 2 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3315 up 25 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7119  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7158  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.10%

 

The Dow closed down 29.52 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 2.98POINTS OR 0.04%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.11 CLOSED UP 0.23 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.633%//LIBOR RISING AGAIN

 

 

 

FROM 2.625

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Fed-Drift Flops As China Trade Turmoil Spook Stocks

But, but, but… it’s the day before an FOMC meeting – we were promised equity market gains…

 

After yesterday’s meltup in China, stocks flatlined on Tuesday…

 

Europe was up across the board on better ZEW data…

 

US equities all started off excitedly anticipating the pre-Fed drift higher, but US-China trade-talk headlines casting doubt on the deal prompted weakness and stocks never really recovered – despite trying…NOTE – look at the blue line (S&P) which was ramped in the last few seconds to close 0.001% higher

Trannies were really ugly today – worst day since Jan 22nd

The Dow gave up 26,000…

 

“Most Shorted” stocks faded in three down legs – mirroring yesterday’s 3 up-legs…

 

Semis, Biotech, and CAT all tumbled on the China trade talks headlines. FANG stocks tumbled after reports of the big tech companies being called to Washington over censorship…

 

Notably, the China headlines prompted the most negative TICK in two weeks…

 

VIX and stocks have decoupled in the last two days…

 

Notable spike in IG and HY spreads intraday today…

 

US Treasury yields were very marginally higher on the day – roller-coastering intraday…

 

30Y is trading like a penny stock…

 

The dollar index (DXY) extended its recent run lower…NOTE – dollar is down 7 of last 8 days – after rising 7 straight days…

 

Yuan spiked lower on the China trade headlines, but recovered most of the drop – and still closed higher on the day…

 

Cryptos were broadly higher on the day…

 

PMs managed gains as crude and copper slipped lower on the day…

 

Gold extended its gains above $1300…

 

WTI tested below $59 intraday…

 

Finally, we note another disturbing divergence – between ‘median’ stocks and the major indices…saying this rally is bullshit.

As Sven Henrich notes, this is a similar set-up we saw during the all time highs in September all the while $SPX has formed a massive bearish wedge.

We wish Jay Powell the best of luck tomorrow – with the market already pricing in 16bps of rate-cuts for 2019, he has his work cut out to come across dovish enough…

And in case you were expecting a big day tomorrow, here is the reaction function for the last few FOMC meetings…

end

 

MARKET TRADING/

Late this afternoon;

Stocks, Yuan Tumble On US-China Trade Headlines, Then Rebound On More Trade Headlines

Update: just moments after the bearish Bloomberg headlines hit, the WSJ was  out with what almost appeared to be a prepared anti-hit piece, according to which talks are in their final stages and that top U.S. and China negotiators are “planning new rounds of talks starting next week”to end the trade war. According to the WSJ, Robert Lighthizer and Steven Mnuchin expect to fly to Beijing the week of March 25, to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

Talks between the two nations are in the final stages, said individuals tracking the negotiations, with a target date for a deal by the end of April. That is about a month later than the two sides had initially planned.

The news helped stocks instantly rebound from their lows which were hit just moments earlier (see below) following the Bloomberg report that US officials are worried that China is pushing back against American demands in the trade talks.

* * *

US equities and yuan are down notably after Bloomberg reports that some U.S. officials are concerned that China is pushing back against American demands in trade talks as progress slows toward a deal.

Chinese negotiators have shifted their stance with the view that while they have agreed to changes to their intellectual-property policies, they haven’t received assurances from the Trump administration that tariffs imposed on their exports would be lifted, two of the people said on condition of anonymity.

Trannies are leading the drop…

And Yuan down hard…

In recent days, Bloomberg reports that USTR has sent comments to its Chinese counterparts seeking to address concerns with language in China’s revised offer on intellectual-property protection, according to one person briefed on the discussions.

However, another person – reportedly close to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer – denied that Chinese officials have backed away from previous pledges. A Chinese official briefed on the talks said that the negotiations are still ongoing and that a back-and-forth is to be expected in such circumstances.

END

ii)Market data/

THIS OUGHT TO CONVINCE YOU THAT WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A RECESSION.!! Instead of a rebound from last month’s dismal reading..it again disappointed dropping .2% month over month

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Core US Factory Orders Tumble For 3rd Straight Month

Having declined for two straight months, core factory orders were expected to rebound in (shutdown-delayed) January data, but it disappointed notably, dropping 0.2% MoM.

This is the longest streak of weakness in US core factory orders since Feb 2016…

Is there something magical about the $420 billion level of core factory orders?

Year-over-year growth in core factory orders was just 1.8% – the weakest since Trump’s election in Nov 2016.

Headline factory orders also disappointed, rising only 0.1% MoM (less than the 0.3% rise expected).

Final data for durable goods largely remained the same from its preliminary prints, except core durable goods orders which dropped 0.2% (vs an initial 0.1% decline).

Finally, we note that ‘hope’ has recently rebounded in the ‘soft’ survey data but ‘hard’ data  continues to languish…

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Houston: we have a problem!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Toxic Chemical Inferno Threatens Houston Area As Black Plume Extends For Miles

The petrochemical fire that has been raging out of control at an oil storage facility in Deer Park, Texas since Sunday is now impacting the greater Houston area by what’s been described as a “plume of thick, black smoke [which] for a third day intensified overnight as pungent fumes pervaded neighborhoods more than 20 miles away,” according to Bloomberg and local reports.

 

The Intercontinental Terminals Company in Deer Park, Texas on March 18. Image source: AP

The fire which has consumed highly flammable chemical tanks at the Intercontinental Terminals Company oil plant about 15 miles (24 kilometers) southeast of Houston remains “uncontrolled” according to local officials.

The petrochemical fire had triggered a “shelter-in-place” warning for area residents on Sunday, who were further advised by Deer Park city officials to close air ventilation systems in their homes and close all windows.

Embedded video

Good Morning America

@GMA

“Last night was really bad. Hard to breathe.” A thick cloud of toxic smoke is stretching for miles as the result of a massive chemical plant fire near Houston. @TVMarci reports from Texas. https://gma.abc/2K1ffov 

 

 

Disturbingly, a black plume has settled over downtown Houston and has now reportedly made its way to the city’s northside. Bloomberg cited one local woman who noted“You can really smell and taste it now.”

According to prior local reports, the initial chemical tanks that caught fire were known contain a highly flammable liquid hydrocarbon mixture called naphtha, which is often used as a raw material for production and conversion to gasoline.

Bloomberg further described:

“…in residential neighborhoods on the city’s north side, a chemical odor descended Tuesday morning on an otherwise clear day.”

Embedded video

Sherri Nissel@iminfectious

Took this on my way to work. Deer Park chemical fire that started Sunday. I’m in Houston and it’s reached Austin.

 

 

Naphtha is classified as “Extremely flammable” and a dangerous irritant to humans if encountered in “high vapor concentration”.

According to its chemical safety fact sheet it is “Irritating to eyes and respiratory system. Affects central nervous system. Harmful or fatal if swallowed. Aspiration Hazard.”

Now a total of eight storage tanks are reported to be on fire after firefighters reported a drop in water pressure while attempting to extinguish the fire Monday evening.

Starting Monday a thick haze began to gather over the fourth largest city in the United States, worrying employees who were in Houston’s downtown high rises.

Embedded video

Yana@Yana_Montana

ITC chemical plant fire viewed from Downtown Houston. Naphtha, xylene and toluene spreading throughout Houston. 😷🤬

City and environmental officials have throughout the ordeal assured residents that Harris County Pollution Control was conducing air quality monitoring tests of the area, but still cautioned residents to stay indoors if at all possible.

On Monday the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality said in a public statement that there were no “immediate health concerns at ground level,” but residents have complained that updates have not been issued fast enough. Monitors with the Intercontinental Terminals Company also sought to assure Deer Park citizens that “Readings are currently well below hazardous levels.”

Embedded video

Houston Chronicle

@HoustonChron

A man who lives near the Medical Center captured video this morning of a giant plume of smoke spreading across Houston from a petrochemical fire in Deer Park overnight. Message us your photos and videos. https://chrn.cl/2umsBW5  (Guy Casey)

A number of Houston area schools were closed due to the potential for toxic air problems on Monday and Tuesday, and highways running near the facility were shut down in both directions.

Potential health effects of the smoke include coughing, difficulty breathing and irritation to eyes and throat, according to the One Breath Partnership, an organization that works to improve air quality. — Bloomberg/Houston Chronicle

Deer Park residents were first notified early Sunday by the following public alert: “City of Deer Park issuing SHELTER-IN-PLACE emergency in Deer Park,” the city wrote in multiple emergency messages. “Please take immediate action and seek shelter,” the warnings directed.

In a follow-up warning which was also extended to Pasadena and other suburbs of Houston, people were advised: “Residents are asked to remain sheltered and avoid going outdoors if at all possible. Community air monitoring is being conducted and additional updates will be provided as they become available.”

end
The Dept of Transportation now begins an audit of how the Boeing 737 Max was certified by the FAA
(courtesy zerohedge)

DOT Begins Audit of How 737 Max Was Certified By FAA And Boeing

Confirming a Monday WSJ report that Department of Transportation officials are scrutinizing the development of Boeing 737 MAX jetliners and in particular its anti-stall (MCAS) system, the Department of Transportation has officially asked for a wide-ranging review of how the government and Boeing certified the now infamous 737 MAX.

In a Tuesday press release, transportation Secretary Elaine Chao requested the audit in a memo to the department’s Inspector General Calvin Scovel.

The new audit is separate from the criminal probe that the Inspector General is also conducting in conjunction with the Department of Justice’s Criminal Division.

As Bloomberg notes, Chao’s move opens a new front in the U.S. government’s inquiries into the Oct. 31 crash of an Indonesian 737 Max and another crash of the same model in Ethiopia on March 10. The 737 Max family of jets was grounded by the Federal Aviation Administration on Wednesday after evidence surfaced linking the two crashes.

Boeing stock drifted to session lows, following the confirmation of the DOT probe of the 737 MAX.

end
Another good sign of global slowdown:  Fed ex tumbles  as they are stating:  “slowing global trade”
(courtesy zerohedge)

Bellwether FedEx Tumbles Amid “Slowing Global Trade”

One quarter after Fedex shocked investors when it slashed its guidance to $15.50-$16.00, a move which Morgan Stanley called “jarring” and hinted at the possibility of a “severe recession” unfolding – the global bellwether delivery giant did it again, when it cut its profit forecast for the second time in three months, citing weakness in foreign markets and a slowdown in trade, sending its stock tumbling 4.1% in post-market trading as 3Q adjusted EPS and revenue missed estimates.

According to a Tuesday statement, the company’s pain continues as follows:

  • Sees FY adjusted EPS $15.10 to $15.90, estimate $16.03 (range $13.28 to $19.51)
  • 3Q adjusted EPS $3.03, estimate $3.12 (range $2.89 to $3.80) (BD)
  • 3Q revenue $17.0 billion, estimate $17.66 billion (range $17.08 billion to $18.04 billion) (BD)

“Slowing international macroeconomic conditions and weaker global trade growth trends continue, as seen in the year-over-year decline in our FedEx Express international revenue,” said Alan B. Graf, Jr., FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer.

“We have launched our voluntary employee buyout program, constrained our hiring, are limiting discretionary spending and are reviewing additional actions to mitigate the lower-than-expected revenue trends.”

As Bloomberg notes, anemic overseas volume is weighing on the Express overnight air-freight operation, FedEx’s flagship business. Fedex execs are rather pessimistic about the future of the global economy (as per the official statement):

“Our third quarter financial results were below our expectations and we are focused on initiatives to improve our performance,” said Frederick W. Smith, FedEx Corp. chairman and chief executive officer.

“Our investments in innovation, network infrastructure and automation will increase our competitiveness and drive long-term earnings growth. FedEx built and operates the preeminent global parcel and logistics network, and we have a lengthy track record of success.”

This was all taken badly by investors who shaved 4% off the stock after-hours…

As a reminder, this additional weakness comes after FedEx slashed its earnings forecast last quarter, citing economic uncertainty in Europe and Asia. FedEx Express said it would not achieve its operating income goal of $1.5 billion by fiscal 2020.

 

SWAMP STORIES

What a riot!!  Steele’s former Mi6 boss calls the Dossier “overrated”

(courtesy zerohedge)

Christopher Steele’s Former MI6 Boss Calls Dossier “Overrated” 

In yet another stunning blow to the so-called “Steele Dossier” assembled by former MI6 agent Christopher Steele, the former chief of the (MI6) said the hastily cobbled-together report by his former employee is “overrated” and its salacious claims against Donald Trump unlikely to be verified, as the Daily Wire‘s Ashe Schow reports.

Following an appearance at the Jamestown Foundation’s 12th annual terrorism conference in Washington D.C., Sir John Scarlett – who headed the British Secret Intelligence Service from 2004 to 2009, fielded a question from journalist Nicholas Ballasy, who asked Scarlett what he thought of the dossier and if he believed what was written in it.

“Well, no,” said Scarlett, adding “I looked at it and I thought these are commercial intelligence reports; I don’t know about the sources — they might be right, they might be wrong and they’ll probably be overrated and they’ve been overrated.

When asked if the dossier could ever be verified, Steele’s former boss said “No.”

Ballasy then asked Scarlett if he was surprised that Steele would produce the dossier using unverified information, to which the former MI6 head replied:

“Well, they were commercial intelligence reports and they were visibly that so there’s a question of why they were there and where they came from and who commissioned them and so on,” adding” So, I’ve tended to see them in that context and never quite of political significance for obvious reasons and actually if you think about it, people have talked about them in a really big way a year or so ago and they haven’t really made that much of a difference.

“As I said, I suspect, all I can say, is they are overrated.

When asked about what Steele was like to work with, Scarlett replied: “I’m not going to comment,” before walking away. We’re guessing he’s probably tired of MI6 having been mentioned in the same breath as Steele for the last several years.

 

 
end
This is beginning to get interesting;  Nunes sues twitter for 250 million dollars in a “shadow ban” lawsuit
(courtesy zerohedge)

Nunes Sues Twitter For $250 Million In “Shadow Ban” Lawsuit

Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) filed a lawsuit against Twitter and several of its users on Monday seeking $250 million in compensatory damages and $350,000 in punitive damages, reports Fox News.

The suit accuses the social media giant of “shadow-banning conservatives,” including himself, in order to influence the 2018 US elections through the systematic censorship of certain opinions – while “ignoring” multiple lawful complaints of abusive behavior. 

Also included in the lawsuit are several accounts which Nunes claims defamed him – accusing the lawmaker of being a racist, having “white supremacist friends” and turning out “worse than Jacob Wohl,” a 21-year-old political exhibitionist and former investment adviser who was charged with 14 counts of securities fraud in 2017.

The lawsuit alleges defamation, conspiracy, and negligence, and seeks not only damages, but also an injunction compelling Twitter to turn over the identities behind numerous accounts he says have harassed and defamed him.

Although federal law ordinarily exempts services like Twitter from defamation liability, Nunes’ suit said the platform has taken such an active role in curating and banning content — as opposed to merely hosting it — that it should face liability like any other organization that defames. –Fox News

“Twitter created and developed the content at issue in this case by transforming false accusations of criminal conduct, imputed wrongdoing, dishonesty and lack of integrity into a publicly available commodity used by unscrupulous political operatives and their donor/clients as a weapon,” reads the lawsuit. “Twitter is ‘responsible’ for the development of offensive content on its platform because it in some way specifically encourages development of what is offensive about the content.”

Byron York

@ByronYork

Nunes’ lawsuit against Twitter basically argues that Twitter does so much to shape content–censorship, shadow-banning, terms of service–that it functions as a de facto content provider. http://ow.ly/QQjm30o61uV

Twitter is accused of supporting “an orchestrated defamation campaign of stunning breadth and scope, one that no human being should ever have to bear and suffer in their whole life,” after the platform allowed defamatory material to be spread about Nunes.

The complaint also named specific Twitter accounts that spread allegedly defamatory material about Nunes. One defendant, identified as “Liz” Mair, purportedly published tweets that “implied that Nunes colluded with prostitutes and cocaine addicts, that Nunes does cocaine, and that Nunes was involved in a ‘Russian money laundering front,'” according to Nunes’ lawyers. –Fox News

Yashar Ali 🐘

@yashar

5. OMG Nunes included this tweet in his complaint.

According to the complaint, “Twitter did nothing to investigate or review the defamation that appeared in plain view on its platform. Twitter consciously allowed the defamation of Nunes to continue” despite reports and reviews by Twitter’s content moderators.

“As part of its agenda to squelch Nunes’ voice, cause him extreme pain and suffering, influence the 2018 Congressional election, and distract, intimidate and interfere with Nunes’ investigation into corruption and Russian involvement in the 2016 Presidential Election, Twitter did absolutely nothing,” the complaint continues.

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/402297422/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false&access_key=key-REkjqtaQFJ0Y7NdTVlXY

On Monday, Twitter admitted to shadowbanning The Federalist co-founder Sean Davis. 

Tweeting a passage last week from former FBI attorney Lisa Page’s Congressional testimony discussing the FBI’s rush to find connections between the Trump campaign and Russia, Davis pointed out the irony of Hillary Clinton’s campaign employing former UK spy Christopher Steele, a foreign national, “working with Russians to obtain damaging information about Donald Trump.” 

Sean Davis

@seanmdav

Titter claimed in its e-mail to me that it “mistakenly remove[d]” a completely anodyne tweet about public congressional testimony, but didn’t explain why it left the tweet–and metrics showing no engagement–visible to me when logged in. Is conning users a bug, or a feature?

View image on Twitter

Sean Davis

@seanmdav

Twitter gave me no notice or explanation when it shadowbanned one of my Tweets about Russian interference in our elections. But what’s worse is how Twitter apparently gives its users the fraudulent impression that their tweets, which Twitter secretly bans, are still public.

 

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:
end

France tells banks to set aside more capital – it fears credit in the country might be growing too quickly and the financial system needs to hold more ammunition in the face of growing risks

https://www.ft.com/content/5c575cfc-49a5-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

WaPo: Brexit in disarray after House speaker moves to block third vote on deal

The speaker said he would not allow the government to present Prime Minister Theresa May’s E.U. withdrawal agreement for a vote unless it was clearly different from earlier ones. The ruling stoked further uncertainty and left lawmakers stunned and wondering aloud what comes next…

The Sun is reporting that May will ask the EU for a 9 to 12 month Brexit delay.

Leftists are frightening Wall Street elites.  Street donations and virtue signaling won’t stop wealth taxes and other socialist schemes if leftists gain power.  Street elites are still ignoring the ‘working poor’.

Goldman Sachs sets targets for Hispanic and black entry-level hires   https://reut.rs/2TNBR4s

Jamie Dimon says we’ve split the US economy, leaving the poor behind

Dimon was speaking at an event at the bank’s New York headquarters to unveil a new $350 million program to boost job prospects for people in under-served communities

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/18/jamie-dimon-says-weve-split-the-us-economy-leaving-the-poor-behind.html

Today – The two-day FOMC meets begins.  No change in policy or message is expected.  The known world expects a dovish communique.  This notion induces traders to buy any and all dips until the market reacts to the released communique tomorrow afternoon.

The Fed and Powell cannot afford to be too dovish with stocks soaring.  The S&P 500 Index is only 3.78% from its all-time high.  Various market actors want to force ESMs and stocks to all-time highs in the next two weeks to boost Q1 performance.

Remember, it was the soaring stock market that troubled Powell and few other fed officials before Q4 2018 arrived.  In a couple weeks, US stock indices could be ticking at new all-time highs.  Then, Powell and his brethren will look foolish, feel foolish and be foolish.  Apologies to the old Gillette theme

@sunchartist : I really really really want Powell to flip back to Auto Balance Sheet unwind just so that I can see the TV pundits lose their minds

-END-

urkey Hopes Iran, Iraq and Syria Will Help It Strangle the PKK

The PKK is one of several important groups that operate among Kurds in the Middle East…

    Turkey also harshly condemned the Kurdistan independence referendum in northern Iraq in September 2017… Turkey didn’t want the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq to become more autonomous at least in part because it doesn’t want the PKK to continue having bases there…

    It also hopes that if the US withdraws forces that it can agree with the Syrian regime to allow an operation along the border, similar to Afrin, removing the YPG from the border area…

https://www.jpost.com//Middle-East/Turkey-hopes-Iran-Iraq-and-Syria-will-help-it-strangle-the-PKK-583811

Ex-Putin adviser who died in US had broken neck

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/report-putin-adviser-died-us-broken-neck-61733935

@JordanSchachtel: Still unbelievable that this guy was killed a mile from the White House, likely by Russian agents, and we were lied to for years about it. DC police, Obama White House, etc. all took part in the cover up. “Ex-Putin adviser who died in US had broken neck”

Sens. Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand said they would not rule out expanding the Supreme Court if elected president    https://twitter.com/politico/status/1107646605073760256

We’re old enough to remember when RINOs and Dems asserted that Trump would wreck the US Constitution.  So far, Dems have proposed to eliminate the Electoral College, pack the SCOTUS, allow 16 year olds to vote, allow illegals to vote, grant reparations and institute a wealth tax.

I WILL SEE YOU TUESDAY NIGHT

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