MARCH 20/THE CLOWNS OF K STREET REPORT ON FOMC: THEY CAVE!!: GOLD DOWN $5.15 TO $1301.75 DURING COMEX HOURS RISES TO $1314.00//SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO $15.33; THEN SPURTS TO $15.50 IN ACCESS MARKET TRADING//CHINA HALTS RECEIVING USA PLASTIC WASTE AND THEN TRUMP STATES THAT TARIFFS WILL REMAIN FOR QUITE SOME TIME//UBS STATES FIRST QUARTER IS A DISASTER WITH POOR TRADING REVENUE// MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1301.75  DOWN $5.15 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15.33 DOWN 4 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1313.70

 

silver: $15.48

 

 

Comex options expire next week:  Wednesday March 27

London/LBMA expires Monday March 31/2019.

The crooks continue with their whacking right in front of the authorities/regulators despite the criminal probe of precious metals manipulations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

MARCH

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 20 NOTICE(S) FOR 2000 OZ (0.0622 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  382 NOTICES FOR 38200 OZ  (1.881 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

20 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 100,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 5323 for 26,615,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $4012:DOWN $5

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $4029  UP 13

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 2/20

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,305.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/19/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 03/21/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2 6
661 C JP MORGAN 15 2
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 3 7
905 C ADM 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 20 20
MONTH TO DATE: 382

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FINALLY STOPS ITS DESCENT AND ROSE FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS WEEK: , THIS TIME BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 980 CONTRACTS FROM 187,144 UP TO 189,124 WITH YESTERDAY’S  6 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.  TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE MUST HAVE HAD  CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AGAIN TODAY.

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  968 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 968 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 968 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 968 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.84 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 6 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

AND NOW: 26.935 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

28,607 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 28,607 CONTRACTS) OR 143.035 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2043 CONTRACTS OR 10.216 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  143.035 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 20.42% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          508.42    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 980 WITH THE 6 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD   A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 968 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2948 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 968 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1980 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 6 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.37 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.936 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 134% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 20 NOTICE(S) FOR  100,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/AND NOW MARCH: 26.935 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST SURPRISINGLY AGAIN FELL BY  3,179 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 514,163 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $4.60//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  ON MONDAY I STATED THIS: “EITHER WE HAD A MASSIVE SHORT COVERING OR THE SPREADERS STARTED TO LIQUIDATE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN USUAL”  I AM NOW CONVINCED THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE STARTED THEIR LIQUIDATION EARLIER THAN USUAL.  YOU WILL RECALL THAT THEY USUALLY LIQUIDATE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THEIR OPEN INTEREST ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE MONTH. SOMEHOW THEY HAVE DECIDED TO START TWO WEEKS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE.  SOMETHING SINISTER IS GOING ON BEHIND THE SCENES!!~

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  FAIR SIZED 2173 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 2173 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 514,163. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE. FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW,  A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1006 CONTRACTS: 3,179 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2173 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 1006 CONTRACTS OR 100,600 OR  3.129 TONNES.

YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $4.60....AND WITH THAT, WE HAD A  LOSS IN TONNAGE OF 3.129 TONNES?????!!!!!!.

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 91137 CONTRACTS OR 9,113,700 OZ OR 283.47 TONNES (14 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6509 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 283.47 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 283.47/2550 x 100% TONNES = 11.11% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1152.46 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3179 DESPITE THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICING ($4.60) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 2173 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 2173 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 652 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

2173 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3179 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE  LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 3.129 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS DROP IN  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE OF $4.60 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX???????!!!!!

 

 

 

we had:  20 notice(s) filed upon for 2000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $5.15  TODAY 

 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

 

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT  THE SLV//

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1980 CONTRACTS from 187,144 UPTO 189,124 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 968 FOR MAY AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 968 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2166 CONTRACTS TO THE 968 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE  OBTAIN A GAIN OF 2948  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 14.74 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY AND NOW 26.935 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 6 CENT RISE IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 968 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.34 POINTS OR 0.01% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 145.31 POINTS OR 0.49%  /The Nikkei closed UP 42.07 POINTS OR 0.20%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .40%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.6944 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 58.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67/28 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED 

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.6944 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6972 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

i

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)China halts the plastic waste of the USA as we warned you that this was going to happen .  Now the uSA has no place to send all of its plastic waste

( zerohedge)

ii)It sure looks like Trump’s blockade against Huawei as backfired:  not one single European country has banned Huawei
(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i) Switzerland/UBS:

Oh OH! this is something that we must pay attention to:  UBS warns that its first quarter is one of the worst in recent history. Its banking revenue implodes

( zerohedge)

ii)UK

Embattled May states that she will not seek a long delay in the Brexit proceedings:  the pound slides ealry this morning

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)The pound drops further as MP’s are furious.  May requests a Brexit extension.  The EU will only give a long extension something that the UK does not want.  It is a mess..

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)GERMANY:

Bayer AG, a former stalwart on the German /uSA stock exchanges suffered a major blow from its second trial on weed killer Roundup

( zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)BOEING

The following should give the authorities enough clues as to what happened  on both of the crashes of those Boeing 737 Max 8

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Venezuela

the USA has now allowed the Venezuelan opposition to seize diplomatic properties in the USA. However there is still not enough support inside Venezuela for a takeover of power.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)This is something that we have been telling you.  We have already reached peak gold production as most of the major mines have already been found

( zerohedge)

ii)The USA imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s state owned gold mining operation Minerven and its president, Perdomo

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

iii)Hugo comments that the road for the dollar will not be pretty: a steady devaluation

( Hugo Salinas Price)

iv)Craig Hemeke describes the dilemma facing the Fed as it tries to pare its balance sheet and raise rates

( Craig Hemke)

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//early this morning

Early trading and gold trading today.

 

END

 

ii)Market data

 

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)the USA cancelled 362,000 passports last year over supposed back taxes.  The government does not have to prove that you owe the taxes.

Simon Black states that it is now a good idea to have a second passport

(Simon Black/Sovereign Man)

b)Unusual sun behaviour and a shift in the magnetic pole seems to have caused crazy weather patterns throughout the USA. Nebraska flooding has broken 17 records and many states has seen huge amounts of snow

( Michael Snyder)
c)The slashing of forecasts form Fed ex is very disturbing.  Fed Ex is a good Bellwether for the global economy and when this giant reports lousy numbers going forward, we must be very aware of the oncoming contraction…This may turn into a global catastrophe…
(courtesy Michael Snyder)
a must read.

d).Boeing tumbles after the FBI joins into the 737 Max approva(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Trump will let the people see the Mueller report when it is released
(courtesy zerohedge)

b)More documents will be released which shows that there have been USA ambassadors who conspired with the DOJ to bring down Trump.  This document will be released shortly

(courtesy zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN FELL BY CONSIDERABLE  SIZE 3,179 CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 514,163 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.60) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING).

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2173 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 2173, FOR JUNE:0 CONTRACTS AND FINALLY DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2173 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 1006 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2173 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3179 COMEX CONTRACTS. OUR SPREADERS HAVE STARTED TO LIQUIDATE MUCH EARLIER THAN USUAL!!

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ONLY::1006 contracts OR 100,600 OZ OR 3.129 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MARCH and here the open interest stands at 36 contracts  for a  gain of 15 contracts.We had 5 notices served upon yesterday so we  GAINED  20 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 2000 oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their effort. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX!!!

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after  March is the  active delivery month is April and here the OI lost by 13,721 contracts down to 217,955 contracts. The non active month of May lost 83 contracts down to 801 open interest.  After May, the next active delivery month is June and here the OI stands at 204,368 having gained 9088 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 20 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 2000 OZ. (0.0622 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1980 CONTRACTS FROM 187,144 up TO 189,124(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 84 HAVING GAINED 19 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD 1 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 20 CONTRACTS OR 100,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER FOR OVER 3 YEARS IN THAT THE TOTAL OZ STANDING INCREASES FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE STANDING.

 

 

 

 

AFTER MARCH, WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.  HERE: APRIL ROSE TO 818 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 12 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 1093 CONTRACTS UP TO 1360729 CONTRACTS.  TODAY THE BANKERS TOOK A LITTLE BREATHER WITH RESPECT TO QUEUE JUMPING..MAYBE THEY JUST COULD NOT FIND ANY PHYSICAL METAL AT THE SILVER COMEX…

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED A GOOD 2948 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1980 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 968 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2948 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS STRONG  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 20 notice(s) filed for 100,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  138,042  CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  250,643  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Initial standings for  MAR/GOLD

MAR 20 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

 

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
20 notice(s)
 2000 OZ
(0.0622 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
16 contracts
(1600 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
382 notices
38200 OZ
1.1881 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside.

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil oz

 

we had 0  adjustments…

FOR THE MAR 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  20 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (382) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (36 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (20 x 100 oz per contract) equals 39,800 OZ OR 1.2379 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of MARCH

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (382 x 100 oz)  + {21)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (36 x 100 oz )which equals 39,800 oz standing OR 1.2379 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH.

We GAINED 20 contracts or an additional 2000 OZ ADDITIONAL oz WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING TO ACCEPT A FIAT BONUS.

 

HOWEVER, THE GOLD COMEX (AND SILVER COMEX) ARE NOW IN STRESS AS THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO FIND PHYSICAL METAL.

SURPRISINGLY NO GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 11.388 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  366,127.915 oz or  11.388 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,037,536.411 oz 250.000 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON

MARCH 2018 VS MARCH 2019 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 1/2018: TOTAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 2.1524 TONNES

THE FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE: MARCH 31/2018:  1.6114 TONNES AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 29 MONTHS 105 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH

MAR INITIAL standings/SILVER

MAR 20 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
2062.700 oz oz
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
597,858.200
oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
20
CONTRACT(S)
100,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
64 contracts
320,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5323 contracts

(26,615,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.825 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.12% of all official comex silver. (147 million/300.8 million)

 

i) Into CNT:   597,858.200 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  597,858.200   oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

i) out of Delaware; 2062.700

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 2062.700   oz

 

we had 0 adjustment

 

total dealer silver:  95.669 million

total dealer + customer silver:  302.583 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MARCH 2019. contract month is represented by 20 contract(s) FOR  100,,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5323 x 5,000 oz = 26,615,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (84) and the number of notices served upon today (20 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 5323(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR( 84) -number of notices served upon today (20)x 5000 oz equals 26,935,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained  20 contracts or an additional 100,000 oz will stand as investors continue to shun morphing into London based EFP’s  as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

ON MARCH 1.2018 WE HAD 24.670 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STAND FOR DELIVERY. BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE DELIVERY MONTH, 27.190 MILLION OZ STOOD AS QUEUE JUMPING IN THE SILVER COMEX ARENA HAD BEEN THE NORM FOR QUITE A WHILE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  24,305 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 42,195 CONTRACTS… 

volumes are dropping for both gold/and silver

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 42,195 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 210 million OZ  30.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.81% (MAR20/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.74% to NAV (MAR20/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.81%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.23/TRADING 12.85/DISCOUNT 2.85

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $4.60 TODAY: A MASSIVE 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 779.27 TONNES AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1..18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED:  TOTAL GLD INVENTORY REMAINING:  778.09 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.70: A BIG CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.04 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT AGAIN OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.53 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $1.70: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.87 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY AND THIS GOLD HAS BEEN USED IN THE WHACKING PROCESS YESTERDAY AND TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD ANOTHER $12.50 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33 TONNES

FEB 26  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

 

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.99 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/ A SURPRISE GAIN (DEPOSIT) OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.50 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAR 20/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 778.09 tonnes

*IN LAST 562 TRADING DAYS: 156.86 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 462 TRADING DAYS: A NET 9.96TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TODAY AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 1.17 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 516,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: STRANGE!! TWO TRANSACTIONS!!  IN THE MORNING A WITHDRAWAL OF 703,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307,800 OZ/ IN THE AFTERNOON: A DEPOSIT OF 1.56 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY FINALLY RESTS AT 309.160 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS//A  SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 610,000 OZ//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ/

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT; NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/RESTS AT 309.984

FEB 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ/

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS: SURPRISINGLY A DEPOSIT OF 1.688 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

 

MAR 20/2019:

 

Inventory 310.848 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.17/ and libor 6 month duration 2.67

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .50

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.47%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.81

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.34

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

5 Ways to Prosper In the Coming Crisis – Goldnomics Podcast

In the just release Goldnomics Podcast (Episode 11), Mark O’Byrne and Stephen Flood are interviewed by Dave Russell as they discuss the systemic challenges facing our planet and the five key ways to prosper in the coming global crisis.

Topics considered are

– Political, financial, economic and monetary systems are failing and will likely collapse

– Our human built economic systems are dependent on the environment of the planet which is threatened

– Medical, religious and other beliefs and paradigms are being questioned and in crisis

– In the age of information, old systems are collapsing as we enter a new era of consciousness

– Read, learn, develop skills and grow yourself in order to be a contribution to your family, company and community

– Mental, emotional and physical health is wealth

 

GoldCore Exclusive Offer
For the next 30 days when you buy a minimum of 10,000 ($,€,£) in physical gold and silver for storage in Zurich, you will benefit from Free Secure Storage on this investment for 6 months along with other valuable bonus gifts.  Access key information here

 

News and Commentary

Gold prices slip as dollar firms ahead of Fed decision (Reuters.com)

Canada Lifts Bond Borrowing Ahead of Election (Bloomberg.com)

U.S. Sees China Trade Pushback as Trump Touts Progress (Bloomberg.com)

Sotheby’s set internet auction record with the $1.5 million sale of Friedrich Hayek’s Nobel Prize (GCS-Web.com)

China banks face huge capital hole as stimulus spurs lending (Twitter.com)

Investors could soon get a golden opportunity to buy the precious metal, says gold ETF chief (CNBC.com)

Is The World Running Out Of Gold? (DW.com)

Gold and Silver Will Head to New Highs (Youtube.com)

A Recession Is Coming, And Maybe a Bear Market, Too (Bloomberg.com)

Market Cycles Signal Imminent “Collision Between Reality & Widespread Fantasy” (ZeroHedge.com)

The Pentagon’s Missing Trillions: What You Need to Know (Youtube.com)

Ireland’s Dunnes-loving, cheese-eating unsqueezed middle (DavidMCWilliams.ie)

How Asset Inflation Will End — This Time (Mises.org)

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

19 Mar: USD 1,308.35, GBP 985.06 & EUR 1,152.53 per ounce
18 Mar: USD 1,305.35, GBP 986.19 & EUR 1,150.01 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 1,302.35, GBP 981.55 & EUR 1,150.55 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 1,299.20, GBP 982.84 & EUR 1,148.88 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 1,308.40, GBP 994.25 & EUR 1,158.20 per ounce
12 Mar: USD 1,296.95, GBP 986.85 & EUR 1,150.78 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

19 Mar: USD 15.41, GBP 11.61 & EUR 13.57 per ounce
18 Mar: USD 15.38, GBP 11.60 & EUR 13.54 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 15.35, GBP 11.58 & EUR 13.56 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 15.23, GBP 11.52 & EUR 13.48 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 15.52, GBP 11.80 & EUR 13.73 per ounce
12 Mar: USD 15.44, GBP 11.83 & EUR 13.72 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank May Become EU’s “Too Big To Fail” Bank
– Happy Saint Patrick’s Day from GoldCore
– 188 Internet Shutdowns In 2018 Show Why Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection
– Buy Gold as Basel III Means “Central Banks and Banks Are Going To Be Buying Gold”
– Invest In Gold Or Bitcoin – Which Is The True Store Of Value?
– Silver Bullion Is The Portfolio Insurance To Buy Now
– EU Isn’t Ready for the Next Recession
–  JPMorgan Is Bullish on Gold as a Hedge Against Rising Inflation
– Gold – It Might Be Different This Time

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
SOMEBODY DUMPS ONE BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF PAPER GOLD.

(COURTESY ZEROHEDGE)

Gold Tumbles Back Below $1300 As Someone Suddenly Dumps $1 Billion Of ‘Precious Paper’

As Europe closed, it seems someone decided now was a great opportunity to puke over $1 billion notional of paper gold into the futures market to send the precious metal back below the key $1300 level…

Huge volume spike…

 

Spot gold broke back below its 50DMA…

 

Well it is Fed Day after all.

 

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

This is something that we have been telling you.  We have already reached peak gold production as most of the major mines have already been found

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

A shortage of gold? Only at such a low price

 Section: 

Is the World Running Out of Gold?

From Deutsche Welle
Bonn, Germany
Tuesday, March 19, 2019

The murmurs that the world is running out of gold deposits have grown louder in the past two years.

Several experts and industry magnates, including Canadian miner Goldcorp’s chairman, Ian Telfer, have forecast a perpetual decline in gold production from its current peak.

Gold production reaching its peak levels is nothing new. The production of the yellow metal has reached its highest levels on at least four occasions in the past before witnessing sharp declines.

… 

But many say there is something that makes the current gold peak stand out: There is simply no new major gold deposit left to be discovered.

“The largest and most prolific reserves have already been found,” Matthew Miller, an analyst at CFRA Research, told Deutsche Welle. “Gold miners are struggling to grow reserves in line with their production.” …

“The gold miners realize that the prices of companies are at such attractive levels that it’s cheaper to buy gold in the stock market than it is to explore for it,” John Ing, a mining analyst at Maison Placements Canada, told DW. …

“Finding gold is a function of the gold price,” Ing said. “There is no shortage of gold in the world but just at this price there is a shortage. It’s quite possible that gold will be $2,000 per ounce. Then you will see a rush of exploration and more deposits being found.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.dw.com/en/is-the-world-running-out-of-gold/a-47974833

END

The USA imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s state owned gold mining operation Minerven and its president, Perdomo

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

U.S. Treasury seems to consider gold to be money after all

 Section: 

U.S. Sanctions Venezuela’s Government-Owned Gold-Mining Company for Backing Maduro

By Lesley Wroughton, Susan Heavey, and Doina Chiacu
Reuters
Tuesday, March 19, 2019

WASHINGTON — The United States imposed sanctions on Tuesday against Venezuela’s state-run gold mining company Minerven and its president, Adrian Perdomo, accusing them of illicit operations and propping up the government of President Nicolas Maduro.

The announcement comes days after Uganda said it was investigating its biggest gold refinery for importing Venezuelan gold. Washington has imposed half a dozen rounds of sanctions against Maduro and senior Venezuelan officials as it tries to choke off funding to the government. It has warned gold traders not to deal in Venezuelan gold or oil.

… 

Treasury is targeting gold processor Minerven and its president for propping up the inner circle of the corrupt Maduro regime,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-sanctions/u-s-…

* * *

Join GATA here:

Mining Investment Asia
Marina Bay Sands Conference and Exhibition Center
Singapore
Tuesday-Thursday, March 26-28

https://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/

Mines and Money Asia
Hong Kong Conference and Exhibition Center
Wan Chai, Hong Kong
Tuesday-Thursday, April 2-4

https://asia.minesandmoney.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

Hugo comments that the road for the dollar will not be pretty: a steady devaluation

(courtesy Hugo Salinas Price)

Hugo Salinas Price: The road ahead for the dollar will be like the road behind

 Section: 

9:34a ICT Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Hugo Salinas Price of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver forecasts this week the future of the U.S. dollar by reviewing its history of steady devaluation.

Salinas Price writes: “The Federal Reserve is in box. It has boxed itself into an insoluble problem. It cannot stop creating more credit, expanding its balance sheet, no matter what Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed, may say he is doing or going to do. To stop creating more Federal Reserve dollars means only one thing — total collapse of the whole humongous Federal Reserve dollar scheme.”

Salinas Price’s commentary is headlined “The Road Ahead for the Dollar” and it’s posted at the association’s internet site, Plata.com, here:

http://plata.com.mx/enUS/More/374?idioma=2

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Bill King:

overnight stock futures have been manipulated upward for years.  No surprise here!

(courtesy King/Ramsey/GATA)

King Report: Overnight stock futures have been manipulated upward for years

 Section: 

By Bill King
The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Burr Ridge, Illinois
Wednesday, March 20, 2019

https://mramseyking.com/king-report

Once again someone juiced E-Mini S&P Index futures (ESMs) during early European trading Tuesday. The manipulation of ESMs during the wee hours in the U.S. creates the psychology that induces other traders, particularly the momentum investors, to get long for the coming session.

There is a long pattern going back to the 1990s of overnight manipulation of S&P 500 futures to arrest negative sentiment and create a cycle of equity buying that spreads from Europe to the U.S.

… 

The overnight manipulation became so blatant that saner angels would check to see which firms were “fooling” around with the S&P futures on Globex during off-session trading. Manipulators then pressured the powers that be not to disclose the identity of the firms that were trading the futures. The secrecy continues to this day.

The ESM manipulation commenced during the second hour of European trading. ESMs rallied 11 handles within two hours. But that was the top. From 6:53 a.m. ET until the European close, ESMs gyrated wildly with a downward bias until someone juiced ESMs for the European close. …

It is crystal clear that someone, probably from Team Mnuchin, keeps leaking positive U.S.-China trade stories to The Wall Street Journal. It is evident that the leaks are intended to boost stock prices. Qui bono? …

end

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Palladium and Rhodium prices soar on strong fundamentals

Palladium plus a very small amount of rhodium are the principal catalytic metals nowadays for use in petrol (gasoline) fuelled internal combustion engine exhaust anti-pollution systems and both are suffering from supply shortages which have been boosting prices. Indeed palladium keeps hitting new highs and is heading up towards double the price of platinum which used to be far more expensive than the former and was, some years ago, itself the primary catalyst in petrol engine exhaust cleaning systems. Palladium used also to be far less costly than gold, but currently command a premium of over 205 above the yellow metal.

When platinum was far more expensive than palladium this led to the research which saw platinum replaced by palladium as the dominant catalyst in exhaust emission controls for petrol engines. Thus we have to ask is it now possible that the reverse will occur and the auto industry generate a switch back to platinum as the principal catalyst in emission controls for both diesel engines (where it is still dominant) and for petrol engines too?

If the auto industry and catalytic exhaust system manufacturers see the current price differential as persisting we think there is a good chance that this could happen given the platinum market remains in substantial surplus and palladium and rhodium in deficit. But if this does happen it will take time for the catalyst manufacturers to prove up a replacement system and switch over. Probably a couple of years at least, over which time the catalyst manufacturers would have to make a judgement call that the pricing parameters for the two metals won’t reverse yet again. Historically platinum has commanded a good price premium over palladium and there’s obviously no guarantee that this will not re-occur at some stage in the future.

The principal difference now is that it is already known that platinum-base catalysts work as being effective in cleaning pollutants from petrol engine exhausts whereas prior to its substitution with palladium the latter’s catalytic properties in the process were, to a major extent, unknown, so much basic research had to be undertaken before the switch was made. Arguably, since then, continuing use and research has meant that the palladium/rhodium catalyst combination is more efficient at cleaning petrol engine exhausts than the old platinum catalysts. But if a similar amount of research is put into regeneration of platinum as a petrol engine exhaust catalyst, perhaps in combination with rhodium or some other metal, there has to be a reasonable possibility that platinum could again become the dominant catalytic metal for all types of internal combustion engine.

Should the above occur then the big platinum surpluses could soon disappear and the palladium deficit be reduced or eliminated altogether, but then the price differences between the two metals could fall away, or be reversed, which represents a balancing act equation for the catalyst and auto manufacturers to take into account. The longer palladium maintains the current kind of substantial price premium over platinum, the more this reverse substitution process is likely to come about.

The writer’s view is that probably the research to see if platinum-based exhaust control catalysts are capable of meeting today’s more rigorous anti-pollution standards will already be under way. But, because of the potential for the pricing differential between platinum and palladium to be eliminated, or reversed the likelihood is that there may well be a place for both metals in future catalytic systems for petrol driven internal combustion engines which could bring prices back nearer equality – positive for platinum and negative for palladium.

Precious metals consultancy, Metals Focus, certainly sees the strength in the palladium price continuing this year and sees it overtaking $1,700. Indeed it is already getting close reaching over $1,600 at one time yesterday. It sees potential supply disruption ahead for all the pgms in the world’s largest producer, South Africa, which dominates platinum production and is probably the second largest producer of palladium after Russia The consultancy thus notes, in its latest weekly newsletter: “With regard to the 2019 price outlook, we therefore expect palladium to generate further upside, surpassing $1,700 before year-end. On the supply side, risks of industrial action in South Africa (as wage negotiations get underway in the PGM market) are likely to have a far greater impact in the palladium market, compared with platinum. With respect to palladium demand, relatively weak Chinese light vehicle sales will be offset by tighter emissions legislation, resulting in a new high for global palladium automotive demand.”

Russia has added to the supply worries as it is reported as saying that it will stop the export of precious metals scrap and tailings from May to September this year. Given that palladium and rhodium supplies appear to be in deficit, this decision will affect the prices of these two metals the most.

Overhanging all this, though, will be the growth in the uptake of electric, hybrid electric/petrol and fuel cell vehicles which is perhaps advancing faster than analysts have been anticipating. This growth is likely to accelerate with more and more countries and cities planning to ban sales of, or access by, internal combustion engine cars at some point in the future and as ever-continuing research expands electric vehicle (EV) battery life, speeds up charging and leads to more and more charging points becoming available thus eliminating, or substantially reducing, range anxiety. Virtually all major car manufacturers are developing electric vehicles and it may not be long before these dominate the new vehicle markets as greener credentials become the norm rather than the exception. At this point the price differential between platinum and palladium will become an irrelevance unless new uses can be found for the metals and the prices for both metals could be decimated. This may not occur for some years yet, but we wouldn’t like to bet on the ultra long term survival of the internal combustion engine as the principal power unit for land- based transportation systems.

20 Mar 2019

-END-


iii) Other Physical stories
A MUST SEE INTERVIEW OF ANDREW MAGUIRE BY GREG HUNTER

Central Banks Going Long Gold – Andrew Maguire

By Greg Hunter On March 20, 2019

World renowned precious metals expert Andrew Maguire says pay attention to the new rule that goes into effect at the end of March that will allow gold to become fully valued and monetized as a tier 1 asset for banks around the world. Maguire explains, “Basel III is coming into effect in less than two weeks from now, and it will effectively remonetize physical gold. Of course, that is a big deal. While the synthetic players shuffle chips in this siloed CME casino, the insider bullion banks are positioning for higher gold prices. That is it right there. Bottom line is what are the big boys doing?”

So, is it safe to say central banks and big banks are going long gold? Maguire says, “They’re all going long gold. Why is that? It is because they are already allocating gold for their own house accounts. . . . The minute the global physical markets see unallocated positions are being mark to market at a certain price, the physical market will explode. There will be a gap higher, and the offer to sell physical will rise to a point where someone is actually willing to sell it. . . . I think you are going to see in a few days that it will suit the bullion banks to have a higher price than a lower price. . . . At some point, they are going to want a higher price, and we all know why. There are trillions of dollars of derivatives and unbacked zero value intrinsic assets out there in the market place, and someone has to settle this stuff. It is not going to be settled without a much higher gold price.”

Maguire goes on to say, “Look at platinum, it’s a vertical rise. What is that? That is a physically driven short squeeze. People look at it and say it must be speculation. It’s not speculation. It was a massive short position just like in silver and just like in gold, but more so in silver. What we are seeing is a relentless drive to cover. We are going to see a similar situation (in gold and silver). What is that price? You are already seeing that with the LBMA projecting $1,530 per ounce in gold for this year. . . . It amazes me that people are not seeing this massive tectonic event. It’s going to be a shock, but I think it is part of a central plan move to revalue gold. It has to.”

Maguire says watch silver for an extreme spike to the upside. Maguire says, “Silver is going to break out. I think $50 per ounce is a joke. I think it’s going to be substantially higher than that. It’s not going to be a question of how you can run into resistance with silver. It’s going to be how much physical is available. It’s going to be a heck of a lot higher when you start to have a run on the price.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with precious metals expert Andrew Maguire.

-END-

END
Good topics from Nicholas to us with morning:
1. He feels that the March 29 2019 entry of gold as a tier one asset will probably we a nothing burger
(I differ from Nicholas on this: i think it is a big deal)
2 The sad state of affairs in South Africa
3. Deutsche bank and Commerzbank merger and what it may mean
(courtesy Nicholas B)

Good Morning Bill/Harvey (from a Johannesburg that is facing devastation-more on that later)

I had an affinity with the podcast of Lawrence Lepard in yesterday’s Midas. He confessed that one of his errors was to underestimate the immense combined power and resources of all the satanic globalized forces that conspire to suppress the price of gold. This has been the Achilles ’ heel of GATA’s arguments for so long and the flaw in the seminal research of Frank Veneroso. In respect of any excitement concerning the imminent advent of29th March 2019 as being a significant date in respect of the emancipation of physical gold, this assumption is not well founded at all. The advisory framework of BASEL III did indeed elevate gold to a tier one asset status on 1st January 2019 but simultaneously de-emphasized the attractiveness of gold in both the LCR (Liquidity Coverage Ratio) and NSFR (Net Stable Funding Ratio) bases of computations. The only significance of 29th March 2019 would be that it is the last working day of the 1st quarter of 2019, and many regulatory returns are based on quarter end data. Any bank seeking to report physical gold on its balance sheet at the end of the first quarter would have presumably engaged in this acquisition process throughout the first quarter (or maybe for a longer period) so we would have already witnessed most of the impact on the physical gold market. It, may, however, take many years for individual sovereign regulators to incorporate various selective aspects of the BASEL III advisory framework into their own regulatory templates, so the 29th March 2019 is one big nothing burger in this regard.

Johannesburg (indeed the whole of South Africa) is probably out looking in the near future a situation of 4 hours of Eskom power and then four hours of load shedding on a serial basis for several years-probably eternity. Only a few years after the end of the Nelson Mandela era, South Africa unfortunately had to endure the destruction wreaked by one of Africa’s most evil sons, Jacob Zuma. The situation engineered at the power utility, Eskom, is so bad that despite a plethora of some of the continent’s most highly paid executives, Eskom will not be able to even report on the full and true extent of its catastrophic decline for several weeks. The sad truth is that the fortunes of Eskom are now not capable of being fixed, since even if funding is thrown at the problem, such funding can only be channeled via BBBEE entities (Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment) and the overriding purpose of such constructs is the enrichment of the shareholders, and ability to achieve business objectives within a budgeted and contractual framework does not feature in this’ Nigerian ‘style of doing business. At least further moves to a cashless South Africa must presumably be put on hold as digital currency alternatives are predicated on the availability of a national grid at least 99% of the time.

Presumably we will soon witness euphoria in global equity markets if Deutsche Bank is merged with Commerz Bank. Why not link the supervision of Chernobyl to the ELE (extinction level event) of Fukushima Daiichi and thereby miraculously save the planet?  Engineers in South Africa have long known that linkage of one toxic overflowing  sewer with another such sewer equals a problem solved and the award of mega bonuses all round to the architects of the ‘solution’.

Regards

Nicholas

end

Nicholas in a second email to us, describes the huge run up in the price of Palladium and what it might portend for gold/silver.

 

Bill/Harvey,

A second email within a couple of hours might be pressing my luck in respect of publication, but here goes anyway.GATA members well understand that gold price suppression cannot be defeated via seeking to overwhelm the shorts in the paper markets.Such an attempted outmaneuver would seek to conquer ‘infinity’,which is impossible (and yet there seems to be no shortage of demented players)..The paper market in Palladium could well be of interest to those of us who are looking for a sign that the Comex crooks can be defeated.A minute ago, the paper price of palladium was quoted at $1,575. Now here is an extract of an article by John Dizard from the Financial Times of London (no less), published on 28th September 2018,when the price of palladium had just risen to $1,076. Hindsight is a wonderful vantage point, but the tenor of the full article is an urgent plea to short palladium at its current bubble price of $1,076.

“Bubbles need half-smart participants to get under way. The forthrightly stupid will stand there like stubborn beasts as the proposition is put forward. The truly clever will ask lots of questions and undertake too much research. The best investment bubble propositions incorporate the familiar and the incomprehensible. Take, for example, the past month’s bubble in palladium, the price of which has risen by more than a quarter since the middle of August. The largest single application for the dull silvery metal is in the exhaust filters of petrol engines. A few grammes of palladium in the devices help convert toxic gases such as nitrogen oxide and carbon monoxide into water vapour, carbon dioxide and nitrogen, without being consumed in the process. Therefore, we have something familiar to investors (cars) and something incomprehensible (the physical chemistry of catalytic converters) — perfect conditions for a bubble. The filters for diesel engines use proportionately more platinum — palladium’s shinier and more glamorous relative — to perform the same function. Historically, platinum has been the more expensive. That has changed in the past couple of years and in recent days the trading-screen price of palladium has been $1,076 a troy ounce, while platinum is $816.”

Great advice indeed.

Regards

Nicholas B

end

Craig Hemeke describes the dilemma facing the Fed as it tries to pare its balance sheet and raise rates

(courtesy Craig Hemke)

Ahead Of The Fed – Craig Hemke

7 868

“As 2019 unfolds, you’ll need to monitor the obvious breakout levels for both metals. For COMEX gold, price has…”

by Craig Hemke of Sprott Money News

This week brings another FOMC meeting, with discussions of interest rates, balance sheets, and the economy. How will this impact the precious metals?

While most of the media attention this week will be on Chairman Powell and what he states during his press conference on Wednesday, it will be vital to remember the long game as you watch gold and silver prices fluctuate with every Powell utterance.

As we wrote back in January, the year 2019 will unfold in a manner similar to 2010. If you missed that post, here’s the link for your review:

• https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/gold-and-silver-2…

The year 2010 began with talk of economic strength and “green shoots” rising from the economic rubble of the Financial Crisis. In 2009, the Fed had taken the unprecedented step of directly monetizing some U.S. debt through a program called “Quantitative Easing”, but this initiative had ended by early 2010 and this interest rate manipulation scheme was widely considered to be a one-off drastic measure that would never need to be used again.

And then something unexpected happened. After peaking at 3.2% GDP growth in Q2 of 2010, the U.S. economy began to decline, and quarterly GDP turned negative by early 2011. In response, The Fed announced a second round of Quantitative Easing in November of 2010.

This next program, dubbed “QE2”, revealed to all that The Fed had no plan and was simply responding to economic conditions with “every tool in the toolbox”. Confidence in the U.S. dollar fell and gold set off on an amazing run, as investors and traders globally sought precious metal in any form.

Well, here we are in 2019 and a nearly identical situation is playing out.

By late 2018, the global central banks were all on a stated course to raise interest rates and tighten their balance sheets. This was the plan, until the global equity markets crashed in Q4 and economies began to contract. The European Central Bank was the first to capitulate earlier this month, and the U.S. Fed won’t be far behind.

How do we know this? Check the data. In recent weeks, nearly every U.S. economic data point has been underwhelming, with falling retail sales, declining durable goods orders, and meager job creation the most obvious signals. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast, which many utilize as an excellent prognostication tool, is currently projecting just 0.4% “growth” for the U.S. economy in Q1 2019. Again, doesn’t this remind you of 2010? 

 

Thus, be advised to pay little attention to Chairman Powell this week as he focuses upon the present. Instead, look over the horizon to where this is all headed in 2019 and then ponder how the prices of precious metal will respond. The chart below from Incrementum AG shows a very high correlation between Fed tightening and U.S. recessions. Thus, now is the time to plan for a U.S. recession that is almost certainly coming later this year.

Once this recession is recognized, you can expect:

• U.S. interest rate cuts that lead to another program of Quantitative Easing.

• A drop in the U.S. dollar as confidence in The Fed wanes.

• Falling real interest rates as asset prices fall and disinflation takes hold.

• Soaring debt levels as government tax receipts collapse.

You just lived through this within the past decade, and now here it comes again. However, this time, there are no mulligans. The Fed will be revealed as having no plan, and the world will realize that we are all still living in the giant economic experiment kicked off by Bernanke and his ilk in 2009.

What can you expect from gold and silver? Well, you no doubt remember what transpired in 2010-2011. Gold prices soared from $1050 to $1920 while silver rallied from $16 to $49. Could this happen again? Of course! Will it? I guess we’ll wait and see.

As 2019 unfolds, you’ll need to monitor the obvious breakout levels for both metals. For COMEX gold, price has not posted a weekly close above $1360 in nearly five years! Thus, any breakout and move toward $1400 will be noticed globally, and the result will be a sharp increase in upside momentum.

In COMEX silver, The Banks have diligently painted a downtrend that runs along the 200-week moving average. This trend has been in place since late 2016, and it won’t be easy to break. However, once it is broken, a move toward $18 and $20+ will follow, with even higher highs pending for later this year and 2020.

So be prepared for price volatility later this week, but be sure to keep your eyes on the prize. The global central banks are irreversibly moving toward rate cuts and monetary easing. As was the case in 2010, this will lead to higher precious metal prices in 2019.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

-END-

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.6944/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.6972   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 0.34 POINTS OR 0.01% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 145.31 POINTS OR 0.49%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 42.07 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.45/Euro FALLS TO 1.1352

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.49/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.40 and Brent: 67.28

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP  /OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.10%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.54% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.18%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.44: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.75

3k Gold at $1304.30 silver at:15.31   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.34

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.49 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9999 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1342 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.10%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.60% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.01%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4781

 

FOMC Drift Dead As Global Stocks Slide Ahead Of Fed

After yesterday’s last day selloff, the FOMC Drift is again missing again this morning, with S&P futures in the red following a drop in Asian shares and a bigger slump in Europe, where the Brexit chaos returned after May said she would not seek a long delay from the EU while a sharp drop in Bayer and BMW shares dragged Germany’s DAX 1% lower. The dollar rose and ten-year Treasury yields slipped.

 

US equity futures erased an earlier gain, as nervous investors sold ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, with the mood souring on Tuesday after reports of renewed tensions in U.S.-China trade talks also fraying nerves.

As a result, the longest winning streak in global shares since 2017 was set to end with a whimper as investors took profits on Wednesday before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision, ending 7 consecutive days of increases in the MSCI World.

Europe’s STOXX 600 fell 0.3%, with indexes in Britain and France also slightly down as investors closed positions before the Fed’s decision, due at 2pm this afternoon.

Germany’s DAX led the retreat as BMW warned earnings would fall and chemical maker Bayer headed for the biggest drop in 16 years after the company lost the first phase of a U.S. jury trial over claims its Roundup weed killer causes cancer. The steep decline has a negative impact of almost 100 points on the DAX. Additionally, German automaker BMW stumbled 4.2%, after warning earnings will fall “well below” last year’s level. The news dragged down peers with Daimler down 2%, Continental -1.7%, and Volkswagen -2.1%.

Elsewhere, the largest Swiss bank UBS warned the first quarter “was one of the worst in history.”

Earlier, Asian equity markets lacked firm direction following a lacklustre US session as global risk appetite was hampered by the looming FOMC meeting and ongoing US-China trade uncertainty. ASX 200 (-0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) traded mixed in which the former was pressured by weakness in financials and mining names, while Sony and Nintendo shares were among the biggest decliners in Japan following Google’s announcement of a cloud-based gaming service, although losses in the broader Tokyo market were later pared by a drop in the yen. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (U/C) conformed to the indecisive tone due to trade uncertainty following conflicting news flow in which US-China trade talks were said to be at the final stages with senior trade negotiators to meet from next week, although other reports noted expectations that China may walk back on some trade offers and that issues remained regarding data services and pharma.

Looking at today’s main event, the U.S. central bank is expected to hold rates steady and cut the number of hikes projected for the rest of the year, signaling since early this year a “patient” approach to increasing borrowing costs, while also unveiling its plan to end the balance sheet rolloff.

“Some traders expect the Fed to be a little on the neutral side. The Fed will be optimistic – but not overly optimistic – to send a neutral but upbeat message to the market,” said David Madden, an analyst at CMC Markets in London.

Also in play were concerns on rising tension in the U.S. trade negotiations, which pushed MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan down 0.2 percent. Bulls retreated on Tuesday afternoon, after a Bloomberg report of U.S. concerns that China is pushing back against American demands in trade talks. Talks are set to resume next week – the first since President Donald Trump delayed a March 1 deadline to raise tariffs on Chinese imports – in an acceleration aimed at ending an eight-month trade war between the world’s two largest economies. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin plan to travel to China next week for another round of talks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

On the whole, though, many investors are holding on to hopes of a deal between Washington and Beijing, even as officials from the two sides remained locked in negotiations: “China is eager to come to an agreement so I’m not too worried,” said Wang Shenshen, strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center. “As long as they are holding meetings, many things will work out.”

Two-year Treasury yields remained below the top of the Fed’s policy target range amid expectations of a dovish tone from the central bank, while the dollar ticked higher after three days of losses. The pound fell as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was said to ask for only a short extension to the Brexit process, scuttling expectations that Brexit is all but over. The euro held steady after German producer inflation data missed estimates. European sovereign bonds were mixed.

Kazakhstan’s tenge fell half a percent against the dollar as Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, a career diplomat fluent in Russian, English and Chinese, was sworn in as president. Tokayev pledged to continue the policies of veteran leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, who unexpectedly resigned on Tuesday after three decades in power, and will serve out the presidential term ending in April 2020.

It was unclear whether Tokayev, the former prime minister, will run for a full term as president of the vast oil- and gas-rich country of 18 million people, adding to uncertainty for investors already facing a shift from long-term structural reforms towards populist policies.

In commodities, oil prices were firm, supported by supply cuts led by producer club OPEC as well as U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, though gains were limited by concerns over global economic growth. International Brent crude oil futures were at $67.65 a barrel by 0925 GMT, up 0.1 percent from their last close.

Looking at the day ahead, the FOMC rate decision is due, while scheduled earnings include Micron, General Mills.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,839.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 383.01
  • MXAP down 0.1% to 160.28
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 529.52
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 21,608.92
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,614.39
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 29,320.97
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.01% to 3,090.64
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 38,427.54
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 6,165.35
  • Kospi down 0.02% to 2,177.10
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 0.093%
  • Euro down 0.07% to $1.1344
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $67.85/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.9 bps to 2.14%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.171%
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $67.85/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,302.97
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.50

Top Overnight News

  • Brexit-backers in U.K. PM May’s cabinet have threatened to resign if an extension is so long the U.K. has to take part in European Parliament elections. The EU had indicated that a long delay is needed if May can’t get her deal through Parliament, and chief negotiator Michel Barnier hinted the bloc would like to see a second referendum
  • “Huge Tory revolt” is underway to stop U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May asking EU for Brexit delay of nine months or more, ITV Political Editor Robert Peston says on his Twitter feed. Theresa May has been “requested to address the 1922 committee of Conservative MPs at 5pm
  • U.S. negotiators are concerned China is pushing back against American demands in trade talks, according to people familiar with the negotiations, even as President Donald Trump sounded optimistic about reaching a deal
  • Most market watchers expect the more-aggressive projections in the Fed’s dot plot to come down this week, shifting the middle ground to just one hike this year and possibly another in 2020
  • Sydney’s apartment market is “quite soft” due to a sharp rise in supply that’s increased risks to financial stability, RBA’s Bullock said, urging banks to loosen up lending rules if they can
  • One of nine Bank of Japan board members said it was necessary for the central bank to avoid expectations of no policy change becoming excessively fixed in financial markets, according the meeting minutes
  • Oil’s rally stalled after some U.S. officials were said to fear a Chinese pushback in trade negotiations between the world’s two largest energy consumers
  • Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has begun telling some supporters that he’s making plans to jump into the 2020 Democratic race
  • Around 10,000 jobs in Frankfurt could be at risk from the potential merger between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank; UBS Group’s Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti gave a gloomy outlook to investors, saying conditions in the first three months have been among the toughest in years
  • Hedge funds focused on the $5.1 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market are trying to circumvent the dearth of volatility by going farther afield to find an edge

Asian equity markets lacked firm direction with the region cautious following a lacklustre lead from Wall St and as global risk appetite was hampered by the looming FOMC meeting and ongoing US-China trade uncertainty. ASX 200 (-0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) traded mixed in which the former was pressured by weakness in financials and mining names, while Sony and Nintendo shares were among the biggest decliners in Japan following Google’s announcement of a cloud-based gaming service, although losses in the broader Tokyo market were later pared by favourable currency moves. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (U/C) conformed to the indecisive tone due to trade uncertainty following conflicting news flow in which US-China trade talks were said to be at the final stages with senior trade negotiators to meet from next week, although other reports noted expectations that China may walk back on some trade offers and that issues remained regarding data services and pharma. Finally, 10yr JGBs were restrained as they reflected the flat picture in T-notes and uneventful BoJ Minutes release, although prices were then pressured as Tokyo trade began to improve and following a tepid BoJ Rinban operation of JPY 500bln concentrated in the belly.

Top Asian News

  • China Developers Jump as Property Tax Law Omitted From 2019 Plan
  • Bank of Thailand Holds Interest Rate as Election Risks Mount
  • Singapore Gets First Guilty Plea in S$8b Penny Stock Rout

Major European indices are in the red [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%], with clear underperformance seen in the Dax (-1.0%). Underperformance in the Dax was seen at the open following Bayer (-12.5%) opening significantly lower following a US Jury ruling that the Co’s Roundup was a ‘substantial factor’ in causing a man’s cancer, for reference the Co. has around a 8.3% DAX weighting. Losses in the Dax were subsequently exacerbated by BMW (-4.8%) reporting that they see 2019 group profit before tax significantly lower than the prior years levels; other German names have been dragged down in sympathy. In terms of sectors the material sector continues to underperform, after opening lower than peers at the open, which has been attributed by some to a potential easing of supply constraints after Vale surpassed a milestone in their path to resume production at their Brucutu, Brazil mine. Other notable movers include UBS (-2.3%) are in the red, after the CEO stated that Q1 investment bank revenues are down by around a thirds Y/Y, adding that the CO’s global wealth management income remains under pressure. Elsewhere, Inmarsat (+16.6%) after reports that the Co. have received their 3rd takeover bid this year; which valued the Co. at GBP 2.5bln. Of note, Norsk Hydro (+1.0%) stated that it is too early to determine the exact operational and financial impact of the cyber attack they were subject to yesterday.

Top European News

  • Hermes Says China Demand Is Still Rising. Neckties, Not So Much.
  • Rolls-Royce Sees Record Year in China Even as Car Market Slumps
  • Moncler Underperforms After Eurazeo Sells Remaining Stake
  • Kingfisher CEO Laury to Step Down as DIY Retailer Struggles

In FX, the USD appears to have stabilised as the clocks tick down to the Fed, partly on technical grounds and short covering, but also due to the plight of others like the Pound that is underperforming on latest Brexit developments. The DXY is back within touching distance of the 96.500 level having stopped the rot just ahead of Fib support at 96.264, but it remains to be seen whether the index closes above another chart retracement level at 96.434, which did not hold yesterday, and this in turn depends on how dovish the FOMC proves to be via a combination of the revised growth and inflation forecasts, updated dot plots and especially QT guidance – for a full preview of the looming and pivotal event check out the Ransquawk Research Suite.

  • GBP – In contrast to the Buck’s resolve, Sterling seems resigned to heightened Brexit risk, and in particular the increased uncertainty that extending the A 50 deadline might bring, assuming the EU accepts the request of course. Latest reports suggest that PM May will ask for a short delay of up to June 30 after discussing the alternative of a longer postponement from March 29 with her Cabinet, but meeting staunch opposition to the latter from Tory Leave rebels. However, Brussels remains adamant that any request will only be considered, let alone granted, if accompanied by a rationale reason or firm plan of action, while stressing no going back to the table and renegotiating the WA. Moreover, a 3 month extension crosses the EU election deadline and event itself, as the deadline falls on April 12 for May 23. Cable has accordingly recoiled from another approach towards 1.3300, stopping just short of 1.3200, and Eur/Gbp is hovering near the top of a 0.8590-50 range.
  • G10 – Elsewhere, Usd/majors remain relatively rangebound and narrowly mixed, with the AUD, CHF and EUR marginally outperforming vs the JPY, CAD and NZD that are on a moderately softer footing vs the Dollar. Aud/Usd is holding close to 0.7100, and gleaning some support from the Kiwi on cross-positioning as Aud/Nzd climbs back above 1.0350 and Nzd/Usd is capped ahead of 0.6850 in advance of NZ Q4 GDP data that is likely to carry downside risks vs consensus. Usd/Jpy is pivoting 111.50 after more dovish leaning Japanese rhetoric from BoJ Governor Kuroda and the Government, while the Loonie has lost Tuesday’s bullish momentum and retreated further from 1.3250 to almost 1.3350 alongside crude prices. Turning to the single currency and Franc, trading parameters are still extremely tight around parity and 1.1350 respectively, with the Chf not just wary of the FOMC, but also the SNB on Thursday, while Eur/Usd does not seem likely to trigger decent option expiries at 1.1320-35 (1 bn) or 1.1390-1.1400 (2 bn) at this stage.

In commodities, Brent (-1.0%) and WTI (-0.5%) prices have slipped, and eliminated the support to prices garnered from yesterdays surprise API draw of -2.1mln vs. Exp. +0.3mln. Separately, UBS highlights that the slowing US’s slowing supply, which they note was highlighted in the EIA’s monthly report, suggests that oil markets are continuing to tighten. Looking ahead we have the EIA Weekly Crude report, where expectations are for a crude stocks draw of 0.775mln; at 14:30GMT. Gold (-0.3%) is trading towards the bottom of the days range, weighed on by a stronger dollar and ahead of FOMC rate decision later in the session. Elsewhere, copper has traded uneventfully this morning and Glencore are reportedly in talks with Aeris to offload their CSA copper mine for USD 575mln.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 2.3%
  • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The countdown has now ticked down to under a month until we move into our new house after two years of anticipation and stress. Last night was the time for the final decision on paint for the kitchen with my wife giving me chapter and verse on the merits of a gloss or matt finish. Apparently one is more hard wearing which is preferable in the kitchen and I think I also heard that one can be a bit harsh in a kitchen for dark colours. To be honest it was all quite complicated and “glossed” over me. So I’m not 100% sure what we agreed on. Suffice to say that if I was in charge the kitchen would actually now be a golf simulator so it’s probably good that I’m not.

Elsewhere although the countdown to Brexit is technically now down to 9 days – without an extension – yesterday’s break in big Brexit news meant we’ve had a chance to revisit the real world in the last 24 hours and it’s looking a bit rosier than the inner walls of the House of Commons at the moment. However some concerns about the progress of US/China trade talks took the shine off the second half of the US session and this has spread into Asia a little too. Before this European equities closed at the highest point since the end of September and the S&P traded above 2850 intra-day for the first time since early October. US markets did fall -0.7% from the peaks though to eventually close just about flat (-0.01%) but still around its 5-month high, while the NASDAQ gained +0.12% to reach a fresh high since October 9. As mentioned the relatively sharp reversal around lunchtime in New York came as Bloomberg reported that US trade officials are becoming concerned over the apparent strong degree of pushback from China on issues related to intellectual property. According to the reports, Chinese officials believe that they have already made concessions by opening up some industries and moderating their joint venture requirements, and they want reciprocal commitments from the US in the form of eliminated tariffs. Other sources subsequently downplayed the stories, including President Trump who said that “talks with China are going very well.” USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are set to travel to China next week to continue talks.

In Asia, the Hang Seng (-0.52%), Shanghai Comp (-1.03%) and Kospi (-0.97%) are all down while the Nikkei (+0.04%) is trading flattish. In other news, Samsung Electronics said in a statement that 2019 is likely to be a difficult year for its components business due to increasing uncertainty in business environment, a slowdown in the smartphone market and reduced investment by data centers. The stock is down c. -1% this morning. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are also down -0.11% and all G-10 currencies are trading weaker (-0.1% to -0.3%) this morning.

Before all this and as discussed at the top, the STOXX 600 (+0.57%) closed at its highest level since September 27th and while that was slightly off the intra-day highs, it is back within 4.60% of the local highs from January 2018 albeit -7.19% below the all-time highs seen in April 2015. At the same time the VIX touched its lowest intraday level since last October and the V2X slid to touch its lowest level since last August. The MOVE index is hovering around the YTD (and close to all time) lows and CVIX is at the lowest in 4.5 years. So all seems fine in the world……. for now.

Will the calmness continue going into and out of the Fed meeting tonight? On Powell’s first seven FOMC meetings, the S&P 500 ended up lower on the day of the policy announcement. However, this trend reversed in January when the S&P 500 rallied +1.55% on the dovish pivot. If Fed chairs kept score, Powell would still trail his predecessors, since the S&P 500 has fallen on average -0.25% on FOMC meeting days under his leadership. The averages for Yellen (+0.17%), Bernanke (+0.55%), and Greenspan (+0.18%) all make for happier reading. A reminder that our economists ( link ) expect few surprises in the statement or Powell’s rhetoric. They anticipate the median rate expectation for 2019 will fall to one hike, and will be monitoring for any signals about balance sheet policy or what conditions are needed to allow for another hike.

As for other markets yesterday, interest rates were mostly higher, as treasury and bund yields rose +1.3bps and +1.4bps, respectively. Bund yields touched their highest level (0.12%) since the ECB meeting earlier this month, but subsequently retraced a bit alongside the move in equities to close around 0.09%. The initial catalyst for the earlier move higher was apparently the pricing of €1.55bn of 100-year bonds by the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The MNI story below may have also played a part.

Moving on. It might have been quiet but we weren’t going to get away without a Brexit update despite it waiting until the eighth paragraph today. The newsflow yesterday confirmed that we won’t get a vote on May’s deal in Parliament this week and that talks with DUP are still ongoing. A Bloomberg story suggested that an EU extension would be finalized in the days before March 29th with another Parliament vote on MV3 possible next week. A headline on Reuters also suggested that May will write to EU leaders requesting a short and long Brexit delay – the latter likely to be used as pressure tactics towards the hard Brexiteers to vote through MV3. However there was some talk that the hard liners in the Tory party as so angry that they might not support the party in a confidence vote. So the stakes are getting higher.

A Bloomberg story later suggested that the EU is likely to tell Mrs May that she must decide by mid-April whether to extend Brexit until 2020 or risk leaving in three months without a deal, a senior EU official said. I suppose this gives cover for MV3 and then indicative votes if then needed before that. It also ties into the date (April 12th) where the U.K. needs to decide whether it is going to participate in the Euro Parliamentary elections. If all this fails then we may start the process again with an extended membership into at least 2020 and with risks high of a new PM or a general election. As we get closer to tomorrow’s EU meeting, attention will shift away from the UK side, and investors will increasingly focus on the rhetoric coming out of the EU. There are signs of some disagreement on their side about what conditions they’d want to attach to an extension, with German Europe Minister Roth saying he needs “clear and precise proposals” from the UK explaining “why such an extension is necessary.” The French Europe Minister said a no-deal outcome “can very well happen.”

Sterling reflected the directionless newsflow, having a fairly calm day by comparison to recent sessions, trading in a 0.53% range before finishing little changed at $1.3258. That’s the 8th tightest range of the year. Despite all the Brexit noise, three-month implied volatility for the pound versus the dollar slid to 9.5, its lowest level since last October. Even sterling cannot seem to escape the universal drop in implied volatility this month.

In other news, the gains for European equities certainly weren’t damaged by yesterday’s MNI story suggesting that the ECB might have to buy stocks in any new rounds of QE in the future. We should note that MNI sources do require a bit of a pinch of salt and the details of the story were a lot more hypothetical than the headline itself. In any case our economists in Europe have written about the possibility of the ECB buying equities in 2016. They found that the size of Euro Area ETFs linked to broad market indices was relatively small to make much of a big difference to the size of QE purchases, assuming the ECB followed a similar model to that of the BoJ. See their report here .

As for the data out in the US yesterday, despite being broadly softer, it didn’t move the dial particularly. Factory orders for January printed at +0.1% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) while there were downward revisions for durable goods orders (+0.3% mom vs. +0.4% flash and ex transport -0.2% mom from -0.1% flash) however core capex orders were left unchanged at +0.8% mom.

In the UK the mystery of extremely strong labour market data and weaker demand deepened after yesterday’s January and February employment data. The unemployment rate ticked down one-tenth unexpectedly to 3.9% while average weekly earnings beat at +3.4% 3m/yoy (vs. +3.2% expected). Employment change was also a robust 222k 3m/3m (vs. 120k expected). So another inflationary mix of data for the BoE to consider. Meanwhile the only other data worth flagging yesterday was the March ZEW survey in Germany which looked better at the expectations level (-3.6 vs. -11.0 expected; -13.4 previously) than it did at the current situations level (11.1 vs. 13.0 expected; 15.0 previously).

Finally to the rest of the day ahead, where the data this morning includes the February PPI reading in Germany and February CPI/PPI/RPI readings in the UK. The March CBI survey is also due out in the UK before all eyes turn to the aforementioned Fed meeting this evening. Also worth flagging is the German Cabinet deciding upon the 2020 budget and medium term financial plan tomorrow which is worth keeping an eye on.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.34 POINTS OR 0.01% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 145.31 POINTS OR 0.49%  /The Nikkei closed UP 42.07 POINTS OR 0.20%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .40%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.6944 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 58.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67/28 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED 

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.6944 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6972 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

China halts the plastic waste of the USA as we warned you that this was going to happen .  Now the uSA has no place to send all of its plastic waste

(courtesy zerohedge)

Recycle Crisis Sweeps Across America After China Halts Plastic Waste Imports 

The green movement of the 1970s formed the modern American recycling industry, although there is some concern today that it could be collapsing in many parts of the country, The New York Times warned.

“The sooner we accept the economic impracticality of recycling, the sooner we can make serious progress on addressing the plastic pollution problem,” said Jan Dell, an engineer who leads Last Beach Cleanup.

The report cited Philadelphia, Memphis, and Sunrise and Deltona, Florida, as metropolitan areas where the economics of recycling are not feasible anymore.

“We are in a crisis moment in the recycling movement right now,” California state treasurer Fiona Ma told the Times.

The major dilemma, per the Times, is China’s ban on imported plastic waste.

Recovered plastic shipments to China collapsed by 99.1% in 2018 versus 2017. The government halted mixed paper and post-consumer scrap plastic on Jan. 1, 2018.

“Recycling has been dysfunctional for a long time,” nonprofit Recycle Across America Executive Director Mitch Hedlund told the Times. “But not many people really noticed when China was our dumping ground.”

It seems like Americans are recycling more than they need too, blending trash with recycled items, which triggered the Chinese to ban plastic waste shipments from abroad.

With China no longer a buyer of American post-consumer plastics, recycling and waste companies are now slapping municipalities with higher service fees.

“Amid the soaring costs, cities and towns are making hard choices about whether to raise taxes, cut other municipal services or abandon an effort that took hold during the environmental movement of the 1970s,” the Times reported.

Sunrise, Florida is now burning its recycled waste and transforming it into energy.

Philadelphia has also resorted to burning its recycled waste.

Just north of the Columbus metropolitan area, Ohio, Sims Brothers Recycling in Marion reports it lost 10-15% of its plastics business since China cracked down on plastic waste imports.

“We’ve had to tell a lot of customers we cannot accept materials that we used to be able to bring in and bale and process and ship overseas,” said Jeff Clark, head of non-metallics recycling at Sims Brothers Recycling.

Clark warns that China’s ban on imported plastic leaves fewer options to recycle. He said some shipments had been diverted to Canada, but it looks like most plastic waste will end up in landfills.

“We’ve got to find more markets here in the United States to process this material or it’s just going to continue to go back into the landfill, which a lot of it has done that,” Clark said.

Now that China has refused to be the dumping ground of America’s recycled waste, where on Earth will it all go?

end
It sure looks like Trump’s blockade against Huawei as backfired:  not one single European country has banned Huawei
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump’s Beijing Blockade Backfires: Not A Single European Country Has Banned Huawei

For the past year, as part of Trump’s escalating trade war against China, the Trump administration has been waging a parallel campaign to convince America’s European “allies” (at least until the White House unleashes auto tariffs against Brussels in retaliation for China annexing Italy to the Belt and Road initiative) to bar China’s Huawei Technologies from their telecom networks, a process which so far has culminated with the arrest of the Chinese telecom giant’s CFO in Canada. Bolstered by the success of similar efforts in Australia and New Zealand, the White House sent envoys to European capitals with warnings that Huawei’s gear would open a backdoor for Chinese spies. Last week, the U.S. even threatened to cut off intelligence sharing if Germany ignored its advice.

So far, the gamble to pressure Europe has backfired: not a single European country has banned Huawei.

Confirming that Europe and the US are now allies only on paper, was the scathing commentary by Angela Merkel at a Berlin conference on Tuesday: “There are two things I don’t believe in,” Merkel said: “First, to discuss these very sensitive security questions publicly, and second, to exclude a company simply because it’s from a certain country.”

And just like that, Europe took its place in the grand superpower race: right next to China (and Russia) against the US.

As Bloomberg notes, Europe, and especially Germany, both of which are extremely reliant on continued open trade with, Beijing has been caught in the middle of the U.S.-China trade war. Trying to remain impartial, Europe has been seeking to balance concerns about growing Chinese influence with a desire to increase business with Trump’s trade nemesis. And in a grand quid pro quo, with no ban in the works so far, Huawei is a budget frontrunner for contracts to build Europe’s 5G phone networks, the ultra-fast wireless technology the continent’s leaders hope will fuel the growth of a data-based economy, while building goodwill and hopefully receiving a few billion in Chinese investments in the process.

The first salvo against Trump’s diplomatic effort took place last month when the U.K.’s spy agency indicated that a ban on Huawei is unlikely, citing a lack of viable alternatives to upgrade British telecom networks. Next, Italy’s government also dismissed U.S. warnings as it seeks to boost trade with China. In Germany, authorities have proposed tighter security rules for data networks rather than outlawing Huawei. France is doing the same after initially flirting with the idea of restrictions on Huawei.

“The 5G rollout is one of the most complex and expensive technology projects ever undertaken,” said Paul Triolo, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy. “The challenge for Europe is to find a way that minimizes the security risks linked to Chinese suppliers but not delay 5G, which is so important to the region.”

Governments have also listened to domestic phone companies such as Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom, and Orange, all of whom have warned that sidelining Huawei would delay the implementation of 5G by years and add billions of euros in cost.

“We’ve not seen any evidence of backdoors into the network,” said Helen Lamprell, Vodafone’s top lawyer and chief lobbyist in the U.K. “If the Americans have evidence, please put it out on the table.”

Predictably, the US did not take the rebuke sitting down.

In February, the White House dispatched representatives to MWC Barcelona, the industry’s top annual trade show, who urged executives and politicians to avoid Huawei and its Chinese peers. At the same time, the U.S. ambassador in Berlin wrote a letter to the German government saying it should drop Huawei or risk throttling U.S. intelligence sharing (Germany’s response was not  exactly calm, cool and collected).

Then there is the matter of value, and here China beats everyone hands down.

As Bloomberg notes, while “carriers can also buy equipment from the likes of Ericsson AB, Nokia Oyj, and Samsung Electronics Co., industry consultants say Huawei’s quality is high, and the company last year filed 5,405 global patents, more than double the filings by Ericsson and Nokia combined.”

The biggest irony: while the US accuses China of back door spying, the world already knows that the US is guilty of just that, thanks to Edward Snowden’s revelation. As a result, European lawmakers have been wary of Cisco, Huawei’s American rival, ever since it was revealed that the National Security Agency’s used U.S.-made telecom equipment for spying on, well, everyone. This is one of the reasons why between 2013 and 2018, Huawei increased its telecom market share by 8 percentage points:

Still, neither China, nor Huawei are safe yet. Since China has indeed been walking in the US’ footsteps and has been using its own backdoors to spy on both foes and friends, German hard-liners in the intelligence community realize that the push-pull against Huawei is only there to score political points again Washington. They also admit the company isn’t trustworthy, and updated security rules the government is drafting will make it harder for Huawei to win contracts. Denmark’s biggest phone company, TDC A/S, declined to renew a contract with Huawei and instead picked Ericsson as strategic partner to develop its 5G network. Even as Europe refuses to block Huawei, the Chinese telecom giant has been under increasing pressure to allow greater scrutiny of its technology and increase assurances its equipment can’t be accessed by Chinese spies.

In response, Huawei told Bloomberg it has “placed cyber security and user privacy protection at the very top of its priorities” adding that safeguarding networks is the joint responsibility of vendors, telecom companies, and regulators.

But most importantly, despite US insistence, so far there’s little evidence to suggest Europe will shun Huawei. In fact, as Bloomberg adds, the national railway companies in Germany and Austria have bought the company’s equipment, and carriers such as Deutsche Telekom and Telefonica are running 5G test projects with its products.

As a result of Europe’s rebellion against the US, Huawei’s global revenue growth accelerated in the first two months of the year, climbing by more than a third, founder Ren Zhengfei said last week. And the company says sales of its smartphones doubled in Germany during the same period.

“We don’t know what the U.S.’s next move is, so it’s not over yet,” said Bengt Nordstrom, CEO of telecom consultancy Northstream. “But whatever market share Huawei may lose in Europe, they’ll win back in China.”

Meanwhile, the question of how Trump takes defeat in diplomatic pressure with Europe remains open, not to mention how this would translate from mere diplomacy to global economics and capital markets: one thing is certain, should Europe’s rebuke of Washington be overly publicized, tariffs on Europe’s exports – such as automobiles – to the US would appear inevitable, as would the next global recession as globalization takes it next big step backward.

 
end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Switzerland/UBS:

Oh OH! this is something that we must pay attention to:  UBS warns that its first quarter is one of the worst in recent history. Its banking revenue implodes

(courtesy zerohedge)

UBS Warns Q1 “One Of The Worst” In Recent History As IBanking Revenue Implodes

Just as it appeared that European stocks, whose shorts are supposedly the “most crowded trade” on Wall Street, were set for a major breakout, here comes UBS.

After a painful close to 2018 for most banks, when despite a surge in volatility most flow and prop desks suffered major losses, investors had great hopes for the start of 2019, if for no other reason than the 20% surge in the S&P500 in the past three months.

Alas, at least for the largest Swiss bank it was not meant to be.

Speaking at the Morgan Stanley London European Financials conference, UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti gave a dismal outlook for his bank’s prospects, saying conditions in the first three months have been among the most difficult in recent years.

The investment bank had “one of the worst first-quarter environments in recent history,” Ermotti said Wednesday, blaming it on the lack of merger or IPO activity outside of the U.S. As a result, UBS investment banking revenues were down about one third compared with a year ago. The bank is slowing hiring and some IT projects as it seeks to make up for weak markets.

Ermotti’s comments mean the quarter has deteriorated even more than the bank suggested last week, when it said clients remained cautious in the first months of this year. Similar to Deutsche Bank, UBS has cut thousands of investment banking jobs over the last decade as it tilted to private banking. While the procyclical strategy has become a blueprint for rivals including Credit Suisse, it has left the bank open to revenue dips after market corrections and when clients trade less, like right now.

Ermotti also warned that global wealth management revenue is down about 9% from a year ago, but was hopeful that new money should be positive, and the bank aims to offset the drop in revenue with a 5 percent reduction in costs, he said.

But the biggest pain was for the UBS investment bank division, where Q1 continues a slide first observed in the final months of last year, when it posted a $47 million loss because clients, particularly in Asia, stayed on the sidelines. That, according to Bloomberg, was a stark contrast to the prior year, when the investment bank was a bright spot that consistently beat analyst expectations under former boss Andrea Orcel who in September accepted an offer to become CEO of Banco Santander, though the offer was later rescinded in a dispute over pay and appears headed for litigation.

Meanwhile, his successor, Ermotti, like most European bank CEOs, has been struggling to persuade investors that he can further extend UBS’s position in European banking. The stock lost a third of its value last year, and continued the slump on Wednesday following the dismal warning, as UBS shares fell 1.7% at 9:54 a.m. in Zurich trading, the second-worst performer in the Bloomberg Europe 500 Bank and Financial Services Index.

In retrospect, perhaps all those shorts were right…

 

-END-

UK

Embattled May states that she will not seek a long delay in the Brexit proceedings:  the pound slides ealry this morning

(courtesy zerohedge)

May Says She Will Not Seek “Long Delay” To Brexit; Pound Slides

The British Pound, which had comfortably assumed that the upcoming procedural delays had effectively put Brexit on hold indefinitely, slumped after PM Theresa May said she would not ask the EU for a long delay to Brexit – with some reports claiming she would only seek a 3 month extension – contrary to the market’s expectations, opening up the possibility of the UK crashing out at the end of June.

The embattled PM who has mostly lost all control over the Brexit process, is due to write to the EU, seeking the agreement of all 27 other leaders to delay the U.K.’s departure beyond its scheduled March 29 date. But she “won’t be asking for a long extension” to the deadline, the Downing Street spokesman said.

“There is a case for giving Parliament a bit more time to agree a way forward, but the people of this country have been waiting nearly three years now. They are fed up with Parliament’s failure to take a decision and the prime minister shares their frustration.”

May, whose position is already extremely weak, may have been dealt a fatal blow to her premiership if she had been forced to concede that a longer delay might be needed to develop a completely new Brexit plan.

“I don’t see how a long delay gives certainty. Actually we’ve had a long time already,” Damian Hinds, UK education secretary, told the BBC on Wednesday. “You can’t keep kicking this ball further and further and further. You need to pick it up and run with it.”

However, as the FT notes,  May’s decision to seek only a short delay removes the pressure from Eurosceptic Tory MPs to back her plan, since they might now simply run down the clock in expectation that Britain will leave without a deal at the end of June.

* * *

It’s not yet clear how many months delay May will ask for according to Bloomberg: the prime minister has previously proposed a delay until the June 30 to avoid the U.K. needing to take part in European Parliament elections. But such a short delay potentially poses a risk that the U.K. will face the threat of a no-deal Brexit at the end of June.

The latest confusion over delay timing means that Britain is headed for a showdown just days before it is due to crash out of the EU, especially after Jean-Claude Juncker signaled European leaders would be unable to grant an extension to next week’s Brexit deadline at a Brussels summit starting on Thursday. The comments by the European Commission president, made to German radio on Wednesday, come as EU leaders have hardened their position on Brexit, warning they would be unwilling to grant a long-term delay without a “new political process” in London.

The hardline stance in Brussels was joined by similar brinkmanship among Conservative Eurosceptics in Theresa May’s cabinet, who have warned the British prime minister they would resign if she requested a Brexit delay beyond June 30.

In his remarks to German radio, Juncker suggested the EU would wait to see whether May could secure backing for her exit deal – which is virtually impossible – at the third attempt next week before signing off an extension, the FT reported. “Theresa May has neither in her cabinet nor in parliament agreement on anything,” he said. “As long as we don’t know what Britain could say yes to, we can’t make a decision.

“So my assessment is that we won’t be able to reach a decision this week and will have to meet again next week.”

With Brexit day currently set for March 29, at which point a no deal Brexit is – as of this moment the default stance – a week of deep uncertainty for British business lies ahead, and the British Pound is starting to realize this, disappointed on the news that the delay will be 3 months at most, if that.

END

The pound drops further as MP’s are furious.  May requests a Brexit extension.  The EU will only give a long extension something that the UK does not want.  It is a mess..

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“It’s A F**king Mess”: Pound Slides As May Requests Brexit Extension

Update (9 am ET): Mays’ request for a short-term extension has been met with a mix of anger, shock, frustration and disbelief from both opposition MPs and Brussels bureaucrats.

First, the MPs:

Yvette Cooper

@YvetteCooperMP

PM refusing to consider any plan other than her own that has failed twice. In speech at ⁦@CER_EU⁩ I set out possible next steps inc indicative votes, steps to build more consensus & get clarity. So dangerous that PM refusing to consider anything else https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/yvette-cooper-brexit_uk_5c865861e4b08d5b7863b762 

We Are More Divided Than Ever On Brexit – Extending Article 50 Would Give Us Time To Build Consen…

There’s been no plan B, no flexibility on red lines, no reaching out – the Prime Minister should focus on getting agreement on what kind of Brexit people want to see

huffingtonpost.co.uk

Shameless and outrageously irresponsible. @theresa_may, by ruling out a long extension you are enabling no deal. You are welcoming the destruction of jobs and undermining national security. You will irrevocably harm this country in the name of self-interest and fear of the ERG.

Sky News Breaking

@SkyNewsBreak

Prime Minister Theresa May says she has requested an extension of Article 50 until 30 June which would delay Brexit and says it would not be in “anyone’s interests” for the UK to take part in European Parliament elections

Lisa Nandy

@lisanandy

This “strategy” from No.10 is the surest way to end up with no deal at the end of June. They aren’t listening, aren’t serious and haven’t got a clue what they’re doing

Meanwhile, the FT reports that Jean-Claude Juncker has already warned May against requesting a Brexit extension that would push the UK’s exit past May 23, to avoid creating legal complications tied to the European Parliamentary elections (of course, there’s reason to suspect that ‘legal complications’ aren’t Juncker’s driving animus: with eurosceptics already expected to make unprecedented gains in the upcoming vote, the UK participating in the vote could tip the scales toward a complete takeover).

Earlier, the EU had hinted that it would want a lengthy extension, or none at all, while May suggested that she would resign if a longer extension was forced upon her.

Here’s a takeaway from this morning’s PMQs, courtesy of the FT:

  • Second referendum supporters are demanding she put her deal to the public.
  • Soft Brexit supporters want indicative votes to find an alternative way forward.
  • Hardcore Brexiters have expressed anger that the UK won’t leave at the end of next week as promised.
  • Meanwhile the EU has already signalled it will oppose an extension to June 30, as requested.

And on CNBC, they’re already trying to parse how a ‘no deal’ Brexit could be ‘good’ for stocks. No deal = weaker pound = boost to UK megacaps.

So no matter what, buy stocks.

And cable just can’t catch a break.

Three

* * *

Update (8:30 am ET): Just when the situation couldn’t get worse for May and the UK, a leaked report suggests in the most dire terms that the 11th hour breakthrough May had been hoping for at this weekend’s summit probably isn’t going to happen.

According to headlines citing a leaked EU paper, the bloc will likely reject May’s request for a short-term Brexit extension, according to the FT. Ransquawk has more on why:

Article 50 extension to 30 June would be legally and politically difficult; main options for EU leaders are to delay Brexit until before 23 May, or at least the end of 2019, according to an EC document; adds multiple extensions would keep EU in a limbo.

UK PM May says taking part in EU’s elections not in anyone’s interest; adds she wrote to EU’s Tusk requesting A50 extension through 30 June, adds not prepared to extend Brexit beyond 30 June; the govt’s intention is still for a third meaningful vote.

To sum up: the EU insists that, if an extension is authorized, it must be a long-term extension. May insists that’s politically unfeasible. It appears Europe and the UK will continue working at cross-purposes right up until the UK falls off the ‘no deal’ cliff.

* * *

Having submitted her request for a three-month Article 50 extension to European Council President Donald Tusk, Prime Minister Theresa May has settled in to what’s bound to be another contentious session of PMQs – where, rumor has it, frustrated Tories might demand May’s resignation from the floor of the Commons. Cable has drifted to its lows of the session on the news, a sign that traders apparently haven’t finished processing the fact that a no-deal Brexit looks more likely than ever (a stark departure from the mood late last week, when many hoped that May’s threat of ‘no Brexit at all’ might just become the reality). But just because the currency is moving, doesn’t mean anybody can say for sure exactly what’s going on, or what traders should expect.

Two

In her letter to Tusk, May writes that she is “confident” the UK would leave the EU in an orderly fashion according to the terms of her Withdrawal agreement (which the speaker has already ruled cannot be brought for a third vote without substantial changes), if only they had a little more time…

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Nick Eardley

@nickeardleybbc

BREAKING: PM letter to @eucopresident

…But if anything has been learned from the past two weeks of unmitigated Brexit chaos, it’s that this is probably the one scenario that we can conclusively rule out.

Unfortunately for traders (UK bears like Steve Eisman excepted) and politicians who have been hoping for some kind of breakthrough at this weekend’s summit in Brussels, one MP, purportedly a May loyalist, no less, offered a frank assessment of the government’s approach – which, at this point, is looking more like political masochism.

Per the FT’s Henry Mace:

“All we know is it’s a f****** mess. That’s the only universal truth… But what else could she do [than request an extension until June 30]?”

Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn is doubling down on Labour’s push for a second Brexit referendum, presumably hoping to capitalize on the chaos.

You know it’s bad when even the Guardian has no idea what to expect (the best it can do is offer a tally of every reason why passing a deal, or reaching a new compromise with the EU, is extremely unlikely). All Parliament can do, at this point, is once again try to seize control of the situation, though, if the EU rejects May’s request for an extension, it’s unclear what that would even accomplish.

end

GERMANY:

Bayer AG, a former stalwart on the German /uSA stock exchanges suffered a major blow from its second trial on weed killer Roundup

(courtesy zerohedge)

Bayer Battered After Suffering “Major Blow” From Second RoundUp Cancer-Trial Loss

Bayer AG shares are down over 12% in European trading – the biggest drop since 2003 – after a U.S. jury found the RoundUp weed killer was a substantial factor in a California man’s cancer. This is the second case that has gone against manufacturer Monsanto, acquired by Bayer last year.

On Tuesday, a federal court jury in San Francisco ruled unanimously in a lawsuit against Monsanto. Attorneys say the trial, which will determine in a second phase whether the company is liable and if so, for how much, could help determine the fate of hundreds of similar lawsuits.

The plaintiff’s attorneys said he developed non-Hodgkin lymphoma after 26 years of regularly using Roundup to tackle weeds and poison oak, according to the Wall Street Journal. The active ingredient in Roundup and Ranger Pro is glyphosate, a herbicide.

Hardeman’s case is considered a “bellwether” trial for hundreds of other plaintiffs in the US with similar claims, which means the verdict could affect future litigation and other cancer patients and families. Monsanto, now owned by the German pharmaceutical company Bayer, is facing more than 9,000 similar lawsuits across the US.

The decision strikes another blow to the German pharmaceuticals group. In August, a jury ordered its Monsanto unit to pay $289 millionafter determining it failed to warn customers of the potential cancer risks of two of its weedkillers, Roundup and Ranger Pro. The verdict was cut to $78.5 million on appeal.

Analysts are broadly negative on the news, BUT appear to be buyers of any dip… and today’s a big dip.

News is a “major blow,” according to Baader (buy, PT EU123), which says Bayer shares might move towards EU60 in the short-term. If stock falls toward 2018 lows, probability of Bayer becoming a target for activists or a takeover will increase.

Morgan Stanley (overweight, PT EU82) says there was “budding enthusiasm” among investors for either a potential “surprise” verdict in favor, or a hung jury, given multiple days elapsing during deliberations.

Overhang on Bayer shares “could be significant” as outcome was considered by some investors to be a potential bellwether for ~765 outstanding glyphosate cases, Goldman Sachs analyst Keyur Parekh (buy, PT EU78) writes.

Citi says “steady heads required” as >EU20b of litigation risk is already priced into the shares. Says legal checks instruct bank to be more focused on the upcoming Hall vs Monsanto trial being held in St Louis from April 1. St Louis result will better determine whether the estimate of a potential settlement liability of $1-6b needs to be refined

Any extreme weakness is an opportunity to buy, according to Bernstein (outperform, PT EU86) as an ultimate liability well above the $5b is already “baked-in”

Monsanto says studies have established that Roundup’s active ingredient, glyphosate, is safe. It has appealed a separate U.S. court decision last year in favor of a man who used Roundup.

“We are disappointed with the jury’s initial decision, but we continue to believe firmly that the science confirms that glyphosate-based herbicides do not cause cancer,” Bayer said in a press release.

“Bayer stands behind these products and will vigorously defend them.”

END

ITALY

What is this world coming to:? A Senegalese born bus driver sets fire to a bus full of children.  Luckily police were close by and got them all out

(courtesy zerohedge)

I’ll Carry Out A Massacre”: Bus Full Of Italian Children Set On Fire By Senegalese-Born Driver

A bus full of school children in Italy was set on fire by its driver in the outskirts of Milan on Wednesday in protest of migrants who have drowned due to the country’s hardline stance on blocking migrant vessels, according to Reuters.

Police were called to the scene and quickly managed to get everyone to safety before arresting the man.

The driver, a 47-year-old Senegalese-born Italian with a criminal record, reportedly shouted “Stop the deaths at sea, I’ll carry out a massacre” according to police spokesman Marco Palmieri.

All of the children were able to escape before the bus was completely engulfed in flames. One child told reporters that the man had threatened to pour gas on them and set them ablaze.

A video posted on Italian news sites showed the driver ramming the bus into cars on a provincial highway before the fire took hold. Children can be seen running away from the vehicle screaming and shouting “escape”.

Palmieri said some children were taken to hospital as a precautionary measure because they had bruises or were in a state of shock, but none suffered serious injuries. –Reuters

Italy’s Interior Minister, Matteo Salvini, drew criticism from pro-migrant groups after he closed the country’s ports to NGO migrant vessels ferrying mostly North African refugees across the Mediterranean – resulting in several standoffs between Italian authorities and migrant boats which made international headlines.

Most recently, Salvini refused to allow a ship with 49 migrants, the Mare Jonio, to dock – saying that the passengers “can be treated, dressed and fed. We can give them every manner of comfort, but they will not set foot in Italy.

MSF Sea

@MSF_Sea

The rescue ship of @RescueMed has reportedly come across a dinghy with approx. 50 people in distress. Rescue currently ongoing.

Despite a dangerously low SAR capacity in the due to & policy, people continue to risk their lives to seek safety.

Mediterranea Saving Humans@RescueMed

La Mare Jonio ha incrociato un gommone in avaria che stava affondando con una cinquantina di persone. Li stiamo già soccorrendo. La cosiddetta Guardia Costiera libica arrivata in un secondo momento, si sta dirigendo verso di noi.

39 people are talking about this

Salvini said that the Italian vessel had not carried out a rescue operation – but instead “aided illegal immigration.”

Salvini issued a directive on Monday saying ships rescuing people in areas of the Mediterranean under Libyan responsibility, during operations not coordinated by the command centre in Rome, have no right to use Italy as a port of safety.

Meanwhile Lampedusa mayor Totò Martello has said that the migrants are welcome on the island and he does not consider its ports closed.

“At sea there are no directives,” he told the news publication AdnKronos. “If there is a need and I ask to be let in, in short, you have to let me in. That’s all there is to it”. –The Local

Salvini said that any infringement of international maritime or Italian law “can be read as a premeditated action to bring illegal immigrants to Italy and facilitate human trafficking.”

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

 

)BOEING

The following should give the authorities enough clues as to what happened  on both of the crashes of those Boeing 737 Max 8

(courtesy zerohedge)

Off-Duty Pilot Saved Doomed Lion Air 737 From Nosedive Day Before Deadly Crash

An off-duty pilot hitching a ride in the cockpit jumpseat of a doomed 737 Max 8 last October reportedly saved the plane just one day before it crashed off the coast of Indonesia while being operated by a different crew, killing 189 onboard.

 

Lion Air Boeing 737-8 MAX

According to Bloomberg, the ‘dead-head’ pilot on the earlier flight from Bali to Jakarta was able to explain to the crew how to disable a malfunctioning flight-control system by cutting power to a motor driving the nose of the plane down.

 

Rescue team members carry wreckage from Lion Air Flight 610 at the Tanjung Priok port in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Thursday. Beawiharta/Reuters

The previously undisclosed detail supports the suggestion that a lack of training is may be at least partially to blame in the March 10 crash of another 727 Max 8.

The previously undisclosed detail on the earlier Lion Air flight represents a new clue in the mystery of how some 737 Max pilots faced with the malfunction have been able to avert disaster while the others lost control of their planes and crashed. The presence of a third pilot in the cockpit wasn’t contained in Indonesia’s National Transportation Safety Committee’s Nov. 28 report on the crash and hasn’t previously been reported. –Bloomberg

As we noted last week, several pilots had repeatedly warned federal authorities of the Max 8’s shortcomings, with one pilot describing the plane’s flight manual as “inadequate and almost criminally insufficient.” 

The fact that this airplane requires such jury-rigging to fly is a red flag. Now we know the systems employed are error-prone — even if the pilots aren’t sure what those systems are, what redundancies are in place and failure modes. I am left to wonder: what else don’t I know?” wrote the captain.

After the Lion Air crash, two U.S. pilots’ unions said the potential risks of the system, known as the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, or MCAS, hadn’t been sufficiently spelled out in their manuals or training. None of the documentation for the Max aircraft included an explanation, the union leaders said. –Bloomberg

“We don’t like that we weren’t notified,” said Southwest Airlines Pilots Association president Jon Weaks in November. “It makes us question, ‘Is that everything, guys?’ I would hope there are no more surprises out there.

In the Lion Air crash, a malfunctioning sensor is believed to have tricked the plane’s computers to force the nose of the plane down to avoid a stall. Following the March 10 crash less than six months later – which followed a “very similar” track to the Lion Air flight, All Boeing 737 Max 8s were grounded by US regulators following dozens of countries and airlines doing so first.

“After this horrific Lion Air accident, you’d think that everyone flying this airplane would know that’s how you turn this off,” said former FAA accident investigation division director Steve Wallace.

Meanwhile, investigators are now looking into how the new 737 model was approved. The Transportation Department’s inspector general has begun an inquiry into the plane’s certification, while a grand jury under the US DOJ is also seeking records in a possible criminal investigation of the plane’s certification.

“We will fully cooperate in the review in the Department of Transportation’s audit,” said Boeing spokesman Charles Bickers.

 

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

Venezuela

the USA has now allowed the Venezuelan opposition to seize diplomatic properties in the USA. However there is still not enough support inside Venezuela for a takeover of power.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Venezuela Opposition Seizes Diplomatic Properties In US, Plans Embassy Takeover

In its latest major forced intervention in Venezuelan affairs Washington has now allowed Venezuela’s pro-Guaido opposition to take control of diplomatic properties. Reuters reported this week that opposition representatives are now in control of three such Venezuelan diplomatic properties in the US — two buildings belonging to Venezuela’s defense ministry in Washington and one consular building in New York — confirmed by Guaido’s US envoy on Monday.

The US State Department has welcomed the move, encouraging the seizure of Venezuela’s embassy in Washington from the UN-recognized government of “illegitimate” President Nicolas Maduro. Guado’s representative, envoy Carlos Vecchio, said Monday the opposition group plans to take control of the embassy itself in Washington “in the days to come.”

 

Guaido’s opposition “government-in-exile” takes control of a defense building Monday, via Carlos Vecchio/Twitter.

“We are taking these steps in order to preserve the assets of the Venezuelans here in this country,” Vecchio said while speaking from the office of Venezuela’s military attache to Washington. According to Reuters the opposition’s first act was to remove Maduro portraits from the buildings and replace them with Guaido images, photographs of which was then circulated among western media.

To be expected, a US State Department spokesman told reporters the United States was “pleased to support these requests” regarding takeover of consular and other offices from Caracas’ oversight and security. This comes following the US withdrawing all of its own diplomatic and State Dept. personnel from Venezuela last week.

Venezuela’s foreign ministry was quick to condemn the “violation of international law” regarding the buildings, urging US authorities to “take the necessary measures to immediately reverse this forcible occupation” of its diplomatic offices.

The moment Maduro’s portrait was taken down and replaced with Guaido’s:

Gustavo Marcano.

@GustavoMarcano

Gustavo Marcano. @GustavoMarcano

Asumiendo el control del Consulado de Venezuela en Nueva York. #18Mar

pscp.tv

And it doesn’t appear that the building seizures were the result of sudden mass defections among Venezuela’s diplomatic corps either, though a defected military attache could be seen in photographs supporting the move.

Reuters reported that only a handful appeared to have gone along with the takeover:

Of 55 staff members, 12 decided to remain in the United States and support Guaido, Vecchio said on Monday. He added that his staff would work out of the attache building, which is in the upscale Kalorama neighborhood and has an assessed value of $2.2 million, according to Washington property records.

Though Maduro has weathered the past couple months of turmoil which has seen various US tactics brought to bear, including a failed attempt to force US humanitarian aid into the country as well as biting sanctions against state oil company PDVSA, it appears the Trump administration is ready to keep up the heat of regime change efforts against Caracas, short of war (for now).

Meanwhile Washington continues to seize Venezuelan assets, the latest of which are financially-troubled Citgo refineries — all of which Vice President Mike Pence weeks ago expressly stated would be transferred to the Venezuelan opposition under Guaido. Late last month Pence said while meeting with Guaido in Colombia: “We will work with all of you to find every last dollar that they stole and work to return it to Venezuela.”

But for now it doesn’t appear Guaido’s government-in-waiting has attracted enough popular support and momentum inside the country to gain traction toward a successful coup.

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1352 DOWN .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.49  UP .1079 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3244    DOWN   0.0025  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3338 UP .0013 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 3 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1352 Last night Shanghai composite closed DOWN 0.434 POINTS OR 0.01%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 145.31  POINTS OR 0.49% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.40%  EUROPEAN BOURSES RED//

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 42.07 POINTS OR 0.20% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 145.31 POINTS OR 0.49%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.34 POINTS OR 0.01% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .40%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 42.07 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1304.90

silver:$15.32

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.60% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.01 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.45 UP 9 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.31% UP 1  in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.04%  DOWN  0   BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.16% DOWN 1   IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.50 UP 2    POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 134 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS  TO +.08%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.42% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1349 DOWN    .0006 or 6 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.48 UP .059 OR YEN DOWN 6 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3149 DOWN .0075( POUND DOWN 75  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 14 basis points to 1.3335

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.6945    0N SHORE  (UP)

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7011(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4740

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.04%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.59 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.01 DOWN 0  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.43 UP 5 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 6.11 OR 0.08%

German Dax : DOWN 156.73 POINTS OR 1.33%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 23.68 POINTS OR  0.44%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 49.10 POINTS OR  0.52%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 63.28 POINTS OR 0.30%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.87 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 68.41 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    64.35  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.02 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 2 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO +.08 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  59.83

 

 

BRENT :  68.38

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.53… VERY DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.97..

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1429 ( UP 75   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.62 DOWN .800 (YEN UP 80 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.87 DOWN 52 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.311  DOWN 58 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4740

the Russian rouble 63.81   UP .55 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 55 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3295 up 29 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.6945  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.6844  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.08%

 

The Dow closed down 141.71 POINTS OR 0.55%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 5.02 POINTS OR 0.07%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.70 CLOSED UP 0.14 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.6133%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.633

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

“Recession Secured” – Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fed-Fold Sparks Dollar-Dump

This is what it looks like when doves cry…

 

The Fed folded entirely to the market today, slashing its rate trajectory dramatically lower nearer the market’s implied dovishness…

Bloomberg’s Ye Xie noted that if we take the dot plot at face value (which, mind you, may not be a wise thing to do), then it seems the Fed will hold rates steady this year before raising one more time in 2020. If that pans out, it would be unprecedented. Since the 1970s, there have been three times when the Fed held rates steady for more than a year after raising them in the previous three months: 2006, 2000 and 1997. Invariably, the next move was a rate cut.

However, the market has shifted even more dovish, pricing in almost an entire rate-cut in 2019 now…

 

Stocks initially surged on the dovish surprise, dragging the Dow green, but as the last hour went on, traders wondered just how much fear The Fed must be feeling about growth to take such a machete to its rate forecasts and started to sell stocks…

Only Nasdaq managed to cling to gains on the day…

 

TICK gives us a sense of the flow as programs charged in long as The Fed statement hit but sellers dominated the last hour… (NOTE the drop earlier in the day when Trump commented on China tariffs)

 

Bank stocks did not like The Fed’s dovish message…

Regional Banks were battered…

…but FANG stocks soared, even with some China trade headlines early on…

 

Buyback-related stocks pumped-and-dumped after The Fed…

 

10Y yields are now trading where the 2Y yield was just 15 days ago, pushing down to 2.52% handle – the lowest since Jan 2018…

 

30Y yields tumbled back below the 3.00% level to the lowest since Jan 7th…

 

2Y-5Y yields are all now inverted relative to Fed Funds

 

With the curve out to almost 7Y now inverted relative to Fed Funds…

 

The Dollar Index crashed to its lowest since early Feb – perfectly back to the Jan FOMC meeting levels…

The dollar is down 8 of the last 9 days, after being up 7 days in a row.

Dollar weakness sparked a buying panic in EM FX – the biggest day since Jan 4th…

 

Gold was smacked lower on huge volume before the FOMC, breaking back below the $1300 level, but the uber-dovishness prompted huge volume buying in precious metals, sending gold soaring…

 

WTI spiked above $60 on a surprise inventory draw and maintained it after the FOMC…

 

For completeness, here are Chinese stocks dipped in the morning session but were rescued once again into the close…

 

But European stocks were weak ahead of The Fed (with DAX dumped as BMW missed)…

 

And finally, one wonders at the irony of a massively dovish Fed’s action driving the yield curve to collapse sparking the highest recession risk of the cycle…

FOMC

the Fed folds:

Dollar, Bond Yields Plunge As Fed Folds

The Fed surprised dovishly and markets are reacting as expected...

The Dollar is getting hammered…

Treasury yields are tumbling – 30Y back below 3.00%...

With the yield curve now massively inverted to Fed Funds…

Following the lower trajectory of The Fed’s rate path…

And stocks are bid…

And Eurodollar futures are pricing in almost an entire rate-cut for 2019…

and then:

 

Curve Crushed: 2Y, 3Y And 5Y Treasury Yields Plummet Below The Fed Funds Rate

Some were convinced there was no way Powell could surprise markets dovishly. They were wrong.

And to get a sense of just how dovish the Fed’s statement was, look no further than the yield curve where everything to the left of the 7Y Treasury (and even that is in danger), is now inverted to the effective Fed Funds rate (2.40%), with 2Y and 3Y yields tumbling to 2.326%, and 5Y 2.3858%.

Needless to say this is a nightmare for banks, whose Net Interest Margin just got crushed. It also means that indeed as some were worried, the Fed may indeed know something about the economy that nobody else does, at least judging by the panicked bid for safety.

end

FOMC: Powell throw in the towel on growth and inflation…mo more rate hikes for 2019′

(courtesy zerohedge)

Powell ‘Throws In The Towel’ On Growth & Inflation, Sees No More Rate-Hikes In 2019

Summary:

  • Fed leaves rates unchanged, says economic growth has slowed form Q4, even as labor market still strong, job gains solid
  • As expected, the Fed will taper its balance-sheet rolloff, sees it ending by the of September
  • Fed signals no rate hike this year with one increase in 2020
    • 11 officials for zero 2019 hikes, four for one hike
  • Fed says median funds rate 2.4% in 2019, 2.6% in 2020-2021
  • But, the median estimate for the neutral funds rate remains unchanged at 2.8%

The Fed has some ‘splaining to do. The market is pricing in 16bps of rate-cuts in 2019 while they are forecasting – at last call – 2 rate-hikes…

One of the big issues the Fed’s wrestling with is what constitutes neutral, and while there’s a lot of false precision in the r* framework, by one popular measure the funds rate is already bang on neutral. Bloomberg notes that if we compare the real policy rate (deflated by the core PCE price index) with the Laubach-Williams estimate of the real neutral rate, we find a perfect match.

And furthermore, 10Y yields have been glued to the Fed’s long-term dot-plot rate forecast since the start of 2018…

Expectations are that the FOMC will maintain its more dovish “patient” stance and shift from two hikes to one (zero would likely scare the markets) in 2019. Currently, there is a 73% chance that the Fed doesn’t hike in 2019. This will be evident in the SEP with a lowered inflation and growth outlook. As of December, the Fed was anticipating 2.3% growth in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020.

“The focus is going to be entirely on their dot plot and whether or not the Fed has taken any chance of a rate hike out of their own internal forecast,” said Lara Rhame, chief U.S. economist at FS Investments, which manages $24 billion.

“It’s going to be interesting to see if any of the Fed has priced in a rate cut, which I doubt they have, and then how many are thinking they may still need to adjust rates higher once or twice more throughout the year — because I think it’s been a little premature for the market to discount any rate hike.”

And, along with when to stop shrinking its asset portfolio, the Fed faces another decision – what mix of Treasurys it holds, with implications for the economy.

Of course, The Fed’s biggest issue is being perceived as dovish enough – the rates market is priced for 16bps of cuts… and how dovish is too dovish (what does Powell know that we don’t?) and too hawkish risks a violent repricing in bonds and stocks which are expecting the Fed to be patient, data-dependent and on hold.

* * *

So what did the Fed do today to bridge the gap between their hawkish, optimistic forecasts for growth and their pessimistic narrative for rate trajectories. Well, Jay Powell went full dovetard:

  • *FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED, SAYS ECONOMIC GROWTH HAS SLOWED
  • *FED SIGNALS NO RATE HIKE THIS YEAR WITH ONE INCREASE IN 2020

As expected, Fed officials reaffirmed their commitment to being “patient” on future rate moves, while downgrading their assessment of the U.S. economy. They left the fed funds rate target at 2.25%-2.50% and kept much of the statement relatively unchanged since January.

  • ECONOMY: Policy makers now say economic activity has slowed from a solid rate in 4Q, say labor market remains strong; job gains still seen as strong on average amid low unemployment rate. Recent indicators point to “slower growth of household spending and business fixed investment in 1Q.”
  • GUIDANCE: Federal Open Market Committee still sees a sustained economic expansion, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near 2% objective as the most likely outcomes; will be “patient” in determining what rate moves may be appropriate, given global economic and financial developments and “muted” inflation pressures
  • RISKS: Fed makes no reference to balance of risks
  • INFLATION: Now says overall inflation on a 12-month basis has declined, largely due to lower energy prices, while core gauge remains close to 2 percent; now says market-based measures of inflation compensation have remained low in recent months; continues to see survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations as little changed
  • VOTE: The decision was unanimous

Looking at the dots, the median assessment of appropriate pace of policy was slashed as the Fed’s “dots” lose all credibility:

  • 2019 2.375% (range 2.375% to 2.875%); prior 2.875%
  • 2020 2.625% (range 2.375% to 3.375%); prior 3.125%
  • 2021 2.625% (range 2.375% to 3.625%); prior 3.125%
  • Longer Run 2.75% (range 2.500% to 3.500%); prior 2.75%

Compare December vs March:

And simplified:

The Fed has entirely folded to the market (but the market is still pricing more dovishness)…

As expected, to justify its Dovishness, the Fed cut its economic outlook, now seeing 2.1% GDP in 2019 (from 2.3% in Dec) and 1.9% in 2020 (from 2.0%). The unemploymen rate is projected to rise modestly to 3.8% by the end of 2020, from 2.6% in 2019, while inflation remains subdued, rising from 1.8% to 2.0% in 2020 vs 1.9% and 2.1% in the previous forecast.  Finally, as noted above, the median Fed Funds rate was slashed from 2.9% in 2019 to 2.4% and from 3.1% in 2020 to 2.6%

Additionally, The Fed plans to end balance sheet normalization in September.

In light of its discussions at previous meetings and the progress in normalizing the size of the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings and the level of reserves in the banking system, all participants agreed that it is appropriate at this time for the Committee to provide additional information regarding its plans for the size of its securities holdings and the transition to the longer-run operating regime. At its January meeting, the Committee stated that it intends to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve’s administered rates and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required. The Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation and Balance Sheet Normalization released in January as well as the principles and plans listed below together revise and replace the Committee’s earlier Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

  • To ensure a smooth transition to the longer-run level of reserves consistent with efficient and effective policy implementation, the Committee intends to slow the pace of the decline in reserves over coming quarters provided that the economy and money market conditions evolve about as expected.
    • The Committee intends to slow the reduction of its holdings of Treasury securities by reducing the cap on monthly redemptions from the current level of $30 billion to $15 billion beginning in May 2019.
    • The Committee intends to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) at the end of September 2019.
    • The Committee intends to continue to allow its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to decline, consistent with the aim of holding primarily Treasury securities in the longer run.
      • Beginning in October 2019, principal payments received from agency debt and agency MBS will be reinvested in Treasury securities subject to a maximum amount of $20 billion per month; any principal payments in excess of that maximum will continue to be reinvested in agency MBS.
      • Principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS below the $20 billion maximum will initially be invested in Treasury securities across a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding; the Committee will revisit this reinvestment plan in connection with its deliberations regarding the longer-run composition of the SOMA portfolio.
      • It continues to be the Committee’s view that limited sales of agency MBS might be warranted in the longer run to reduce or eliminate residual holdings. The timing and pace of any sales would be communicated to the public well in advance.
    • The average level of reserves after the FOMC has concluded the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings at the end of September will likely still be somewhat above the level of reserves necessary to efficiently and effectively implement monetary policy.
      • In that case, the Committee currently anticipates that it will likely hold the size of the SOMA portfolio roughly constant for a time. During such a period, persistent gradual increases in currency and other non-reserve liabilities would be accompanied by corresponding gradual declines in reserve balances to a level consistent with efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy.
    • When the Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to this level, the SOMA portfolio will hold no more securities than necessary for efficient and effective policy implementation. Once that point is reached, the Committee will begin increasing its securities holdings to keep pace with trend growth of the Federal Reserve’s non-reserve liabilities and maintain an appropriate level of reserves in the system.

*  *  *

Full Redline below…

Presumably, other than the growth downgrade, President Trump will be pleased?

 

MARKET TRADING/ morning

Early trading this morning:  Dow dumps and most importantly the 10 yr bond yield hits 3.00%

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dow Dumps To One-Week Lows, 30 Yield Hits 3.00%

Powell is in trouble. With markets already pricing in 16bps of rate-cuts in 2019, he will have to fully ‘throw in the towell’ to be dovish enough to support equity’s decoupling from reality… judging by stocks and bonds today, investors aren’t sure.

Stocks are sliding notably in the early going…

Trannies are tanking…

And bond yields continue to slide…

Equity markets are entirely decoupled from fun-durr-mentals…

And unless something changes very soon, even the global central bank balance sheet support has faded…

 

END

Afternoon trading:

Stocks Slammed As Trump Says “Tariffs Will Stay On”

US equity markets and Treasury bond yields have tumbled following comments from President Trump that “tariffs could be left on China for a long period of time, until China complies with the deal.”

Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House before leaving for Ohio, added that top negotiators will be in China this weekend working on an agreement to end the ongoing trade war.

All the major US equity indices are extending losses…

Nasdaq is getting hit hardest…

But The Dow is testing support…

30Y is back below 3.00% and Yuan is sliding.

 

ii)Market data/

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

the USA cancelled 362,000 passports last year over supposed back taxes.  The government does not have to prove that you owe the taxes.

Simon Black states that it is now a good idea to have a second passport

(Simon Black/Sovereign Man)

US Government Canceled 362,000 Passports Last Year Over Back-Taxes

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Starting in 2021, Americans will require permission to visit Europe… technically the 26 borderless countries within Europe’s Schengen area.

The process will start out simple enough, taking about ten minutes to complete and costing around $8.

The EU estimates it will grant about 95% of the Americans who apply three years of access to the region.

But what if you are part of that unlucky 5%?

Over 12 million Americans travel to Europe each year. So upwards of 600,000 Americans could have trouble entering the EU starting in 2021.

That’s if everything goes according to plan…

But if these Americans had a passport from within the region– like Italy or Spain for example, then they wouldn’t have to rely on chance.

And having a second passport would help them from some potential serious issues at home, too.+

For instance, last year the US government cancelled 362,000 passports, all from people who they believed owed some back taxes.

I say ‘believed’ because they don’t actually have to prove it.

There’s very little due process – they don’t have to go in front of a of judge and provide evidence to an objective, independent third party.

Instead, revoking a passport is a simple administrative procedure.

Aside from taxes, the government can also deny or revoke a passport if you owe (or if they believe that you owe) more than $2,500 worth of child support.

That’s how it is now. But with the rise of so many socialist politicians, who knows what excuse they might come up with next to cancel a passport.

Having multiple passports is a great insurance policy.

It means that you’ll always have a place to go, where you can live, work, invest, bring your family, etc.

And it also means you have the ability to move and travel.

If you only have one passport and some bureaucratic blunder causes yours to be revoked or frozen, your whole life can be turned upside down.

Fortunately there are a number of simple, cost effective ways to obtain a second passport (which, by the way, is 100% legal).

If you’re part of what I call the lucky bloodline club, you could qualify for a second citizenship and second passport, just for having ancestors in countries such as these:

  • Armenia
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Hungary
  • Ireland
  • Israel
  • Italy
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Luxembourg
  • Poland
  • Portugal* (see note below)
  • Romania
  • Spain* (see note below)
  • United Kingdom

Ancestry is generally the easiest and cheapest way to get foreign citizenship. But it can take time.

The process usually involves contacting your nearest consulate and setting up an appointment… which might take months depending on the consulate.

But that will give you time to gather all the necessary documents proving your line of ancestry—things like your grandparents’ birth, death, and marriage certificates.

*Then there’s an ancestral quirk that could qualify you for a second citizenship in Spain or Portugal. Both countries brutally expelled all Jewish residents around 500 years ago. And now they offer amends in the form of citizenship for the descendants of “Sephardic” Jews.

Also if you’re Jewish, you easily qualify for Israeli citizenship, which comes with great tax benefits if you actually move there.

And by the way, all passports aren’t equal. Many countries on this list are among the top ranked passports according to our Sovereign Man Global Passport Ranking.

For instance, a German passport is ranked 7th best in the world, because it gives you visa free access to 158 countries which cover almost 60% of the Earth’s surface, and account for 77% of the world’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

Italy is ranked 8th, and Luxembourg, UK, Hungary, and Greece are all in the top 16.

A US passport falls 26th in the rankings.

There are other ways to get a second citizenship.

If you were looking to move abroad anyway, spending a little over two years in Argentina makes you eligible for a passport. Right now it’s cheap too, with European style for South American prices.

And for as little as $100,000 you can expedite the process and obtain a second citizenship by investing in a country. Many Caribbean countries offer this deal, and so do European countries like Austria, Bulgaria, and Malta.

Whatever route you take, you definitely want to get the process started now. Here’s a free resource that details four ways anyone can obtain a second passport.

If you are interested in obtaining a second passport, I encourage you to download our free Second Passport Guide.

end
Unusual sun behaviour and a shift in the magnetic pole seems to have caused crazy weather patterns throughout the USA. Nebraska flooding has broken 17 records and many states has seen huge amounts of snow
(courtesy Michael Snyder)

Weather Patterns Gone Crazy: Nebraska Flooding Breaks 17 Records, Farmers Absolutely Devastated

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

One record breaking disaster after another has been hitting America in recent months.  At this moment, Nebraska is dealing with the worst flooding that it has ever experienced, and the economic damage being done by all of this flooding is going to be absolutely crippling for many farmers.  Of course the floods are the result of the “bomb cyclone” that brought hurricane-like winds and blizzard conditions to the central part of the country last week.  Sadly, this was just the latest chapter in a very cold and very bitter winter that can’t end soon enough as far as many of us are concerned.

Unfortunately, a change in the seasons is not going to be enough to restore our weather patterns to normal.  Prior to this winter, I repeatedly warned that this was going to be an extraordinarily cold and snowy winter, and it turns out that I was exactly correct.

So how did I know this would happen?

Well, it is actually very simple.  I listened to the scientists that were warning us that our sun is exhibiting very unusual behavior, that Earth’s north magnetic pole has been shifting, and that global weather patterns are changing dramatically.

It is not an exaggeration to say that weather patterns here in the United States are literally going crazy.  Los Angeles just had the coldest February that it has seen in 60 years, Seattle just had their snowiest February in 70 years, and some parts of California received more than 500 inches of snow this winter.

And now we are being warned that we could have a very rainy spring, but it is hard to imagine that things could get any worse than they currently are in the central part of the nation.

If you can believe it, some parts of the Missouri River are going to break previous flood records by up to 7 feet

The Missouri River was still rising on Saturday evening, local TV station KMTV reported, with a record crest of more than 47 feet expected early on Tuesday in Brownville, Nebraska, about 70 miles south of Omaha in the eastern corner of the state.

“We’re looking at 4, 5, 6, 7 feet above the highest it’s ever been,” Wight said.

So far, a total of 17 records have already been set, and according to CNN some of those records have been standing for nearly 60 years…

Some of the records go as far back as 1960 and some are as recent as 2011, according to a press release from the Nebraska Emergency Management Agency, or NEMA. The majority of the records NEMA listed involved the Missouri River, which crested between 30 and 47.5 feet in different areas throughout the state since Tuesday, breaking previous records by 1 to 4 feet.

The Platte River in Louisville is expected to crest Sunday at 14.3 feet, breaking its 1960 record by 1.9 feet, NEMA said. The Elkhorn River at Waterloo crested at 24.6 feet on Saturday, breaking its 1962 record by 5.5 feet.

Other states have been hit by flooding as well, but nobody got hit quite as hard as Nebraska.

After surveying the immense devastation caused by the flooding, Governor Ricketts attempted to convey the scope of the damage

Gov. Pete Ricketts and other state officials witnessed a helicopter rescue mission, saw wiped-out bridges, islands of stranded cattle and towns engulfed by water during a flyover of flooded areas Friday.

The expanse of the flooding made detecting the main channels of the Elkhorn and Platte rivers difficult in some areas, he said.

“This may be the most widespread flooding devastation we’ve had in our state in the last half-century,” Ricketts said.

Sadly, the truth is even worse than that.

This is now the worst flooding that some parts of Nebraska have ever experienced, and with their fields inundated by water many farmers may not be able to plant their spring crops

While this extreme weather affects everyone in the area, farmers see some of the worst effects. Blizzard conditions and flooding can kill cattle and hogs, and the water-soaked fields may persist for weeks, preventing Midwestern farmers from being able to plant a timely spring crop. Planting delays can lead to lower crop yields or even force farmers to give up planting some fields, which could cut into U.S. corn production this year.

America’s farmers just can’t seem to catch a break.  The trade war has small farmers all across the country on the verge of bankruptcy, and farm debt delinquencies have already reached the highest level that we have seen in 9 years.

So all of this flooding is coming at a really bad time, and on top of everything else more rain and snow is in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

Those that follow my work on a regular basis already know that I talk a lot about how our planet is becoming increasingly unstable.  Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are becoming more frequent, and global weather patterns are doing things that we haven’t seen before.

There is a very complicated relationship between the sun, the Earth’s magnetic field and our rapidly shifting weather patterns.  If the behavior of the giant ball of fire that our planet revolves around continues to become even more erratic, that is going to have enormous implications for every man, woman and child in the entire world.

So keep a close eye on the sun.  Most discussions about “climate” assume that our sun will behave the way that it always has, but that is not a safe assumption.

Things are changing, and the catastrophes that we have seen so far are just the beginning…

END
The slashing of forecasts form Fed ex is very disturbing.  Fed Ex is a good Bellwether for the global economy and when this giant reports lousy numbers going forward, we must be very aware of the oncoming contraction…This may turn into a global catastrophe…
(courtesy Michael Snyder)
a must read..

FedEx Is Talking As If A Global Recession Has Already Begun… And The Numbers Back That Up

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

“Slowing international macroeconomic conditions” is just a fancy way to say that the global economy is in big trouble.

For months, I have been warning that economic conditions are deteriorating, and we just keep getting more confirmation that we are facing the worst global downturn since the last financial crisisFor the second time in three months, FedEx has slashed its revenue forecast for this year.  In an attempt to explain why revenue is declining, FedEx’s chief financial officer placed the blame squarely on the faltering global economy.  The following comes from CNBC

The multinational package delivery service reported declining international revenue as a result of unfavorable exchange rates and the negative effects of trade battles.

Slowing international macroeconomic conditions and weaker global trade growth trends continue, as seen in the year-over-year decline in our FedEx Express international revenue,” Alan B. Graf, Jr., FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer, said in statement.

The use of the word “trends” implies something that has been going on for an extended period of time, and obviously FedEx doesn’t expect things to get better any time soon if they have cut profit projections twice in just the last three months.

And FedEx certainly has a lot of company when it comes to having a gloomy outlook for the global economy.  In one recent article, Bloomberg boldly declared that the global economy is in the worst shape it has been “since the financial crisis a decade ago”

The global economy’s in its weakest shape since the financial crisis a decade ago, Bloomberg Economics analysis shows. And the reminders are all around: China got more affirming evidence of its big slowdown, with industrial output and retail sales softening and a jump in unemployment. The question now is how big that slowdown will be, and what China’s stimulus — and the U.S.-China negotiations — will do to put a floor under it. The Chinese premier pledged Friday that they wouldn’t use quantitative easing or massive deficit spending to ease the pain. Japan got more bad news on manufacturing sentiment and in the hard investment data. Germany, Europe’s growth driver, can’t hide from the daunting external risks. And Turkey just entered its first recession in a decade.

In recent weeks I have been sharing lots of numbers that back up the claim that global economic conditions are getting worse, and over the past few days we got a few more…

-U.S. freight volume has dropped for three months in a row.

-In February, orders for Class-8 freight trucks were down 58 percent from a year ago.

-U.S. manufacturing output was down for a second straight month in the month of February.

-U.S. residential construction spending just plunged for the sixth month in a row.

-Industrial production on a year-over-year basis in Europe has fallen for three months in a row.

When we see numbers like those, normally everyone is screaming “recession” by now.

And retailers continue to shut down at a staggering pace here in 2019.  Sadly, we just learned that Shopko is officially heading for bankruptcy and liquidation

Shopko will liquidate its assets and close all of its remaining locations by mid-June.

The company was unable to find a buyer for the retail business and will begin winding down its operations beginning this week, the company said in statement released Monday. The decision to liquidate will bring an end to the brick-and-mortar business that began in 1962 with one location in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

There is a Shopko about 20 minutes from where I live, and it will definitely be missed.

Meanwhile, things just continue to get even harder for farmers in the middle part of the country.  I wrote about the devastating impact that this historic flooding is having on Midwest farmers a few days ago, and now Fox Business is reporting that all of this flood damage is likely to make our rapidly growing farm bankruptcy crisis even worse…

The number of farms filing for bankruptcy already spiked, following low prices for corn, soybeans, milk and beef, according to analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. In the 12-month period ending in June, 84 farms filed for bankruptcy in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana — double the number over the same period in 2013 and 2014.

Now, some of these farmers have lost their livestock as a result of the devastating flooding. Some farmers, the Times reported, said they’ve been separated from their animals by walls of water, while others are unable to get into town for food and other supplies for the livestock.

We can see so many elements of “the perfect storm” starting to come together, and many believe that events are going to start greatly accelerating in the months ahead.

And as the global economy continues to deteriorate, we could quickly have a giant mess on our hands, because the global financial system is far more vulnerable today than it was in 2008.  Just consider these numbers

Global debt levels have become “higher and riskier” than that of a decade ago, meaning that “another credit downturn may be inevitable”, S&P Global Ratings has warned.

In a report entitled Next Debt Crisis: Will Liquidity Hold?, published on Tuesday (12 March), S&P found global debt has surged by around 50% since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, led by major-economy governments and Chinese non-financial corporates, while global debt-to-GDP ratios have risen to more than 231%, compared with 208% in June 2008.

Shipping companies often feel the effects of an economic slowdown earlier than just about anyone else.  When a lot less stuff is being moved around by truck, rail and air, that should be a clear indication for the rest of us that economic activity is really starting to slow down significantly.

So the fact that FedEx has such a bleak outlook for our immediate economic future is a very ominous sign.

Tough times are ahead, and considering how tense things already are in our country, an economic downturn at this time could ultimately set off a very disturbing chain of events.

END
Trump will let the people see the Mueller report when it is released
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump: ‘Let People See’ Mueller Report When It’s Released

President Trump on Wednesday said that he does not mind if the public is allowed to see Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s upcoming report following nearly two years of investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

“There was no collusion, no obstruction, no nothing,” says @POTUS.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

Doesn’t mind if public sees Mueller report, says @POTUS. pic.twitter.com/kBNxsWfIXa

Mueller is expected to send the report to Attorney General William Barr soon, according to Reuters, though Trump told reporters while leaving for his trip to Ohio that he has no idea when it will be released.

Mark Knoller

@markknoller

In exchange with reporters while leaving the WH for his trip to Ohio, Pres Trump said he has no idea when the Mueller report will be released. Wants to see what the report says. Let’s see if it’s fair, he said.

Pivoting to geopolitics, Trump whipped out a before-and-after map of ISIS in Syria, telling reporters “ISIS…on my election day and ISIS now,” adding that the last red dot on the map will be gone later today.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

“ISIS…on my election day and ISIS now,” said @POTUS holding up a picture of two maps on the White House South Lawn.

View image on Twitter

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

The last red dot on the map will be gone later today, added @POTUS.

end

boeing tumbles after the FBI joins into the 737 Max approva

(courtesy zerohedge)

Boeing Tumbles After FBI Joins Criminal Probe Into 737 MAX Approval

While it should not come as a surprise following news that a grand jury subpoena – which listed the Justice Department’s criminal division listed as a contact – had been sent to Boeing and the FAA, scrutinizing the development of Boeing 737 MAX jetliners and in particular whether corners had been cut with its anti-stall (MCAS) system, moments ago Boeing stuck tumbled when the Seattle Times reported that the FBI has joined the criminal investigation into the certification of the Boeing 737 MAX, “lending its considerable resources to an inquiry already being conducted by U.S. Department of Transportation agents.”

The federal grand jury investigation, based in Washington, D.C., is looking into the certification process that approved the safety of the new Boeing plane, two of which have crashed since October, the Seattle Times reported.

Conveniently, the FBI’s Seattle field office is located close to Boeing’s 737 manufacturing plant in Renton, as well as nearby offices of Boeing and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) officials involved in the certification of the plane, which means that the probe should be rather quick.

The investigation, which is being overseen by the U.S. Justice Department’s criminal division and carried out by the Transportation Department’s Inspector General, began in response to information obtained after a Lion Air 737 MAX 8 crashed shortly after takeoff from Jakarta on Oct. 29, killing 189 people, Bloomberg reported earlier this week, citing an unnamed source.

It has widened since then, with the grand jury issuing a subpoena on March 11 for information from someone involved in the plane’s development, one day after the crash of an Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 near Addis Ababa that killed 157 people, The Associated Press reported this week.

A story by the Seattle Times over the weekend detailed how FAA managers pushed its engineers to delegate more of the certification process to Boeing itself, sparking confusion just what the FAA’s role actually is, and whether it delegated its own duties to the “supervised” company in exchange for kickbacks. The Times story also detailed flaws in an original safety analysis that Boeing delivered to the FAA.

As the newspaper adds, “criminal investigations into the federal oversight of airplane manufacturing and flight are rare, in part because of the longstanding belief  that a civil-enforcement system better promotes candid reporting of concerns without fear of criminal repercussions.”

Criminal investigations into the federal oversight of airplane manufacturing and flight are rare, in part because of the longstanding belief  that a civil-enforcement system better promotes candid reporting of concerns without fear of criminal repercussions. Those criminal cases that have occurred have focused on false entries and misrepresenations.

In 1998, Transportation Department and FBI agents, acting on a whistleblower’s allegations, served a criminal search warrant on Alaska Airlines, seeking evidence of maintenance irregularities.

The report, which hit moments after market close, sent Boeing stock tumbling further in the after hours.

 

END

SWAMP STORIES

More documents will be released which shows that there have been USA ambassadors who conspired with the DOJ to bring down Trump.  This document will be released shortly

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Sitting Ambassadors” Participated In Plot To ‘Take Trump Down’: Meadows

Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) revealed that “sitting ambassadors” were involved in a plot to “take down” President Trump.

Sitting down with Fox News host Sean Hannity, Sara Carter and Gregg Jarrett, Meadows said that the release of new documents will “show” that US ambassadors conspired with the DOJ, reports the Washington Examiner.

“It’s additional information that is coming out that will show not only was there no collusion, but there was a coordinated effort to take this president down,” said Meadows.

“We talk about the ‘Deep State.’ There are players now, even ambassadors, that are sitting ambassadors that were involved in part of this with the FBI-DOJ.”

“As we look at this, it’s time to show that we show the American people what’s out there, declassify some of those documents,” Meadows added. “I think when the American people see what I’ve seen, they will judge for themselves and know that this has all been a hoax.

Watch: 

Donald Trump Jr.

@DonaldJTrumpJr

The coup deepens. More unelected bureaucrats deciding they know best.

Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., hinted Monday the coming release of documents that will “show” U.S. ambassadors conspired with the FBI and the Justice Department to harm President Trump. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/mark-meadows-sitting-ambassadors-conspired-with-doj-to-take-down-trump 

6,004 people are talking about t

 

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:
end

At 10:21 ET BBG reported: French Presidency Says Brexit Talks Extension Not Granted

No Brexit Extension if Simply to Gain Time: French Presidency

Abetting the ESM resurrection operation was these purposeful leaks via the WSJ:

*U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin flying to Beijing week of March 25—Sources

*China Vice Premier Liu He Traveling to Washington Following Week—Sources

*US-China Talks in Final Stages—Sources

https://www.wsj.com/articles/lighthizer-mnuchin-to-travel-to-beijing-11553015413?tesla=y

@zerohedge: It’s like DJ had a story ready to print just in case BBG posted something bearish

It is crystal clear that someone, probably from Team Mnuchin, keeps leaking positive US-China trade stories to the WSJ.  It is evident that the leaks are intended to boost stock prices.  Qui bono?

Over half of the ESM plunge quickly disappeared after the WSJ US-China trade headlines.  The WSJ rally ended within 30 minutes.  Stocks and ESM retreated toward their BBG-induced lows.

The standard late upward ESM manipulation appeared on schedule.  But ‘up jumped the devil’ again!  The US DoT reported that it would have its Inspector General audit the Boeing 737 approval process.  Down goes Boeing!  ESMs and stocks followed and made new session lows.  The last-hour plunge continued until a rally appeared during the final 15 minutes of trading.

Manipulators forced ESMs 11 handles higher during the final fifteen minutes of the session.

Tuesday’s action strongly suggests that the ‘pump & dump’ scheme for today’s FOMC Communique release is losing its mojo.  This is a very negative development for stocks.

@michaellebowitz: Hearing a rumor the ECB is considering buying stocks…   When all else fails dig deeper.  [Can’t tell if he is being facetious or voicing incredulity]

Top Hedge Fund Says Buy Gold, Sell Stocks in ‘Trade of Century’ [Sees recession within 2 years]

    Among the warning signs, Crescat cites corporate insiders who are currently selling stocks hand over fist — indicating a potential stock bubble burst…

U.S. economic data is deteriorating and inversions remain across the Treasury yield curve… Crescat found that almost 45 percent of the curve is inverted.  “The last two times the credit markets had such a high distortion, asset bubbles began to fall apart shortly thereafter,” Crescat wrote.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-19/top-hedge-fund-says-buy-gold-sell-stocks-in-trade-of-century

OAN’s @JackPosobiec: US Attorney General Bill Barr has asked Rosenstein to stay at DOJ longer than originally planned in order to conduct a full review of the Carter Page FISA warrant. Barr told Rosenstein to write him a full summary of events and prepare to answer questions –

@seanmdav: Not sure the guy who signed one of those FISA warrants and then discussed secretly wearing a wire against the president is the best person to be conducting a review of DOJ surveillance abuses. [Unless Barr is giving Rod a last chance to fess up and squeal on conspirators.]

[Rep.] Meadows Bombshell: Sitting U.S. Ambassadors Involved in DOJ Takedown of Trump

https://bongino.com/meadows-drops-bombshell-sitting-u-s-ambassadors-involved-in-doj-takedown-of-trump/

With the Murdoch kids’ hard turn to the left for Fox News, OAN is now the preferred news outlet for conservatives and Trumpophiles.  OAN is also now garnering more scoops than Fox.

Murdoch’s new Fox debuts on Nasdaq, names ex-Speaker Paul Ryan to board   https://reut.rs/2Fd9UsT

Fox News Special Report anchor Bret Baier denied the allegation made by a source with intimate knowledge of the situation who claimed Baier had worked to get Judge Jeanine Pirro suspended [and hire disgraced Dem operative Donna Brazile] to curry favor with Democrats to reverse a decision to bar Fox from hosting any of the party’s presidential primary debates

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/03/fox-news-anchor-bret-baier-responds-to-sources-jeanine-pirro-claim-its-not-true-period/

OAN’s @EmeraldRobinson: What could possibly make Fox viewers happier than listening to the woman who rigged the 2016 primary in favor of Hillary Clinton? [and leaked CNN’s debate questions to HRC]

2020 candidate Andrew Yang: We need a ‘humanity-adjusted GDP’   https://yhoo.it/2TXJqoq

 

end

I WILL SEE YOU THURSDAY NIGHT
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One comment

  1. James McCanney is the only person I know of who provides a concrete explanation of what drives weather, including the so-called “bomb cyclone.” His website is jmccsci.com and includes a free archive of his weekly one-hour radio segments.

    Like

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