APRIL 1/BANKERS CONTINUE IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO CONTAIN GOLD/SILVER: GOLD DOWN $3.80 TO $1289.55//SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TO $15.11//MARKETS GET A LIFT FROM STRONG CHINESE PMI AFTER THEIR BRIEF STIMULUS LAST MONTH//ANDREW MAGUIRE IN KINGWORLD NEWS OUTLINES HOW THE CROOKED BANKERS CRIMINALLY USE THEIR SPREADING POSITIONS TO WHACK GOLD/SILVER DURING OPTION EXPIRY WEEK//RETAIL SALES IN THE USA IS WEAK: REPORTING A DROP OF .2% MONTH/OVER//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

 

 

 

GOLD: $1289.55  DOWN $3.80 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15.11 DOWN 1 CENT (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1287.60

 

silver: $15.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

it seems that this month JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are not stopping anything:

APRIL 0/858

yet JPM issued 700/823

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,293.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/29/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 04/02/2019
FRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
104 C MIZUHO 1
323 C HSBC 3
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 204
661 C JP MORGAN 700
686 C INTL FCSTONE 17 4
690 C ABN AMRO 53 15
737 C ADVANTAGE 26 35
800 C MAREX SPEC 16 19
880 H CITIGROUP 544
905 C ADM 6 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 823 823
MONTH TO DATE: 1,780

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 823 NOTICE(S) FOR 82300 OZ (2.559 tonnes

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1780 NOTICES FOR 178,000 OZ  (5.5365 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

413 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 2,065,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 554 for 2,770,000  oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $4128:UP $26

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $4151  UP 33

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL ON FRIDAY  :  THIS TIME BY A STRONG  SIZED 1692 CONTRACTS FROM 194,082 DOWN TO 195,711 DESPITE FRIDAY’S 12 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.  TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE MUST HAVE HAD  CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AGAIN TODAY.

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  0 FOR MAY, 3119 FOR MARCH 2020  0 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 3119 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3119 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3119 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 15.59 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 12 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

AND NOW 3.565 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

6431 CONTRACTS (FOR 1 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 6431 CONTRACTS) OR 32.155 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 3215 CONTRACTS OR 16.077 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  32.155 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.59% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          588.28    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                           207.835   MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1359 DESPITE THE 12 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD   A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3119 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY CONSIDERABLE SIZED: 1760 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 3119 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1359 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 12 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER ????  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.12 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.988 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 141% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 413 NOTICE(S) FOR  2,065,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW APRIL AT 3.565 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY ANOTHER UNBELIEVABLE SIZED 10,465 CONTRACTS, TO 445,714 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.70//FRIDAY’S TRADING).  

 WE JUST HAD OUR FOURTH STRAIGHT DAY OF AN OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE DUE TO THE ANTICS OF THE SPREADERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SPREADERS LIQUIDATE THEIR CONTRACTS NOT SIMULTANEOUSLY BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES DURING THE TRADING DAY TO CAUSE THE CASCADE OF PRICING IN OUR PRECIOUS METALS AND THAT IS HOW THEY ALWAYS WIN ON OPTION EXPIRY..THEY ARE SO CROOKED. AT THE END OF THE DAY THEY ELIMINATE THE OTHER HALF OF THE SPREAD TRADE. THE COLLAPSE OF OPEN INTEREST SHOULD END WITH THIS READING AND ADVANCE FROM TUESDAY ON..

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7,677 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 7,677 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020l  100 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 445.714. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A NET LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2788 CONTRACTS: 10,465 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7,677 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 2788 CONTRACTS OR 278800 OZ OR  8.617 TONNES. FRIDAY WE HAD A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $2.70....AND YET WITH THAT, WE HAD A STRONG LOSS IN TONNAGE OF 8.617 TONNES!!!!!!. (HOWEVER ALL OF THE COMEX LOSS IS NO DOUBT DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS ALBEIT AT DIFFERENT TIMES DURING THE DAY)

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 7677 CONTRACTS OR 767,700 OR 23.87 TONNES (1 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7677 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 23.87 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 23.87/2550 x 100% TONNES = 0.936% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1396.59 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED  DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 10,465 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($2.70) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7,677 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7677 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A TINY GAIN OF 107 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7677 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 10,465 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 8.6718 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS LACK OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $2.70 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX!!!!! HOWEVER THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT AGAIN WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS AS WE LANDED INTO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AND IT IS THEIR ACTION THAT LED TO A FALL IN PRICE SO UNDERWRITTEN CONTRACTS WOULD NOT BE EXERCISED. THIS IS HOW THE CROOKS WIN ALWAYS ON OPTIONS EXPIRY.

 

 

 

we had:  823 notice(s) filed upon for 82,300 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80  TODAY 

 

VERY STRANGE!! AGAIN NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY

I GUESS THEY CANNOT FIND ANY PHYSICAL METAL AT THE COMEX!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT  IN PRICE  TODAY:

WE LOST 656,000 OZ THROUGH A WITHDRAWAL

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.301 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1692 CONTRACTS from 197,403 DOWN TO 195,711 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 3119 FOR MAY AND MARCH 2020: 0 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3119 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1359 CONTRACTS TO THE 3319 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE  OBTAIN A CONSIDERABLE GAIN OF 1427  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.135 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH. AND NOW 3.565 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 12 CENT RISE IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 3119 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 79.60 POINTS OR 2.58% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 510.66 POINTS OR 1.76%  /The Nikkei closed UP 303.02 POINTS OR 1.43%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.61%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7117 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 60.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.53 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7117 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7193 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)This weekend, China’s manufacturing pMI jumps huge due to the strong stimulus provided by the POBC last month. It ends 5 months of contraction but this stimulus will wear off quite quickly as the world’s global trade growth disintegrates.

( zerohedge)

ii)Good reason for gold to being held in check early this morning:  Beijing orders 200 ships to the Spratly Islands and thus provoking a panic in Manila

( zerohedge)

iii)Not good for global trade.  Apple slides as Chinese iphone prices are slahed
( zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

 

i)BREXIT/EU//Saturday

Theresa May is now planning a 4th vote to bring the Brexit plan (which is a terrible exit plan)

( zerohedge)

ii)UK MONDAY

British pound surges ahead of their 2nd indicative vote

( zerohedge)

iii)The machinations of the meaningful vote (MV4) that is being scheduled.  …the ulterior motives behind Theresa May and how she might win her awful Brexit plan.

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY/SATURDAY

Tom Luongo zeros in on one country that will no doubt provide global contagion when it fails…the country is Turkey and this is a must read..

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

ii)TURKEY/SUNDAY

Chaos erupts after Erdogan loses Ankara and most likely Istanbul in municipal elections
( zerohedge)

iii)TURKEY/USA TODAY

As promised, the USA is halting the F 35 shipments to Turkey over their purchase of that Russian S 400 missile system.  This will infuriate Turkey more than ever as they will now completely turn towards Russia.  Actually they will need to do this as they are running out of dollars.  Next move in this chess game will be China and how they will try and rescue Turkey along with Russia
(courtesy zerohedge)
iv)UKRAINE
What a riot, the comedian who portrays Poroshenko on TV crushes him in the Ukrainian Presidential elections
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

Interesting:  according to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic policy (CPB) world trade plunged to its weakest levels since 2009

( zerohedge)

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

VENEZUELA

Well that did not last long;  Venezuela plunges into darkness again over the weekend

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)We have brought this to story to you last week but it is worth repeating:

Russia is dumping USA dollars to hoard gold

( Bloomberg/GATA)

 

ii)Andrew Maguire correctly states that the BIS is orchestrating smashing gold/silver due to mark to market losses on gold derivatives. He also outlines how the crooks use the spreading trade to cause options to expire worthless.

( Andrew Maguire/Kingworldnews/GATA)

iii)Trump calls on the Fed to reverse interest rates

( Reuters/GATA)

 

iv)A must see interview of Chris Powell and Stefan Gleason on the gold/price suppression etc

( Stefan Gleason/Chris Powell/Money Metals Exchange/GATA)

 

v)Perhaps the only national that can accomplish this:  Russia can nover cover its entire debt dolar for dollar with its foreign reserves.

( BNE/Berlin//GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//early this morning

 

 

 

 

ii)Market data

a)The all important retail sales..a strong component of GDP tumbles in February, dropping .2% month over month instead of rebounding to a .2% rise

( zerohedge)

b)What a joke: two firms offer two polar opposite views on the USA economy and this has been going on for years. Put your money on the ISM data which continues to show a faltering economy

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)The sad case of the City of Chicago along with the no 1 basket case state in the union: Illinois

(John Rubino/DollarCollapse)

b)This portends something awful: a huge 70% of credit card holders say that they cannot pay off their debt this year

( zerohedge)

c)This sent the grocers tumbling as Whole Food flashes prices on hundreds of items

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Steve Bannon states that Trump will now go over his opponents as the Mueller investigation is over. Grab your popcorn.

( zerohedge)_

b)The House Democrats want a full unredacted Mueller report and all underlying evidence as the witch hunt refuses to go away.  The USA is now in turmoil

( zeroedge)

c)Looks like the deep state do not want Biden to run against Trump: a second accuser emerges against him

( zerohedge)

d)Trump is considering an immigration czar to coordinate border policy across all agencies
(courtesy zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSED FOR THE 4TH STRAIGHT DAY AS IT FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,465 CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 445,714 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.70) IN FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING) AND NO DOUBT WE WITNESSED OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY DEPLETION OF SPREADERS AS WE LANDED INTO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!! THEIR MODUS OPERANDI IN THEIR LIQUIDATION CAUSES PRICES TO FALL AND MAKE OPTIONS EXPIRE WORTHLESS!! THEY LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE FIRST TO CAUSE THE CASCADE, THEN USE THE SECOND LEG OF THE SPREAD TO BALANCE THEIR TRADE.  THEY USE THIS TO HIDE POSITION LIMITS.

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7677 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR APRIL 0 FOR JUNE ’19: 7677 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7677 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 2788 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7677 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST AN STRONG SIZED 10,465 COMEX CONTRACTS. ( AND MOST OF THE LOST WAS FROM THE SPREADERS) 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::2788 contracts OR 278,800 OZ OR 8.67 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of APRIL and here the open interest stands at 28010 contracts, having lost 1070 contracts.

We had 957 notices filed on Friday, so we LOST 113 contracts or an additional 11,300 oz will NOT stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus

 

The next non active delivery month after  APRIL is the NON active delivery month is MAY and here the OI lost 1214 contracts DOWN to 2014 contracts. The next contract month after May is June and it is an active month.  Here the open interest FELL by 8999 contracts DOWN to 331,194 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 823 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 82,300 OZ. (2.559 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1692 CONTRACTS FROM 194,082 UP TO 195,711(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 12 CENT RISE IN PRICING.//FRIDAY 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 572 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 134 CONTRACTS ON THE DAY.

WE HAD 141 NOTICES SERVED UP ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED  7 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 35,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

AFTER APRIL, WE HAVE THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 3469 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 133,449. CONTRACTS..  WE NOW HAVE OUR FIRST OPEN INTEREST FOR JUNE 2019 TO TOTAL ONE CONTRACT.  AFTER JUNE, THE VERY BIG DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HAD A GAIN OF 1687 CONTRACTS UP TO 35,237 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED A STRONG 1427 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1692 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 3119 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1427 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS STRONG  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 12 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// FRIDAY 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 141 notice(s) filed for 705,000OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  223,122  CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  279,462  contracts (volume high due to raid)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  APRIL/GOLD

APRIL 1 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz XXX oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
XXX
oz
XX
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz xxx

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nxxx

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
823 notice(s)
 82,300 OZ
(2.559 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1987 contracts
(198,700 oz)
6.180 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1780 notices
178,000 OZ
5.5365 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

inventory movements not given today by the CME as they cannot balance any of the crooked data!!

we had xxx dealer entries:

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: xxx oz

We had xxx kilobar entries

 

we had xx deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nxx oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  xxx

 

total gold deposits: nxxx oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount today

we had xxx gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

i)xx

 

total gold withdrawals;  xxx oz

 

we had xx adjustments…

FOR THE APRIL 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 700 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1780) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (2810 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (823 x 100 oz per contract) equals 376600 OZ OR 11.713 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1780 x 100 oz)  + (2810)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (823 x 100 oz )which equals 376,700oz standing OR 11.716 TONNES in this  active delivery month of APRIL.

WE LOST 106 CONTRACTS OR 10600 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.(AS WELL AS ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EFFORTS)

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 11.388 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  365,292.815 oz or  11.362 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,034,021.799 oz 249.89 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 1.201819.897 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

AT CONCLUSION APRIL 30/2018:  ONLY 4.6407 TONNES STOOD AS THE REST MIGRATED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR WHERE MANY MORPH TO LONDON BECAUSE THERE IS NO METAL AT THE COMEX.

 

 

IN THE LAST 30 MONTHS 105 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

APRIL 1 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
xxx oz

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
xxx oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nxxx
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
413
CONTRACT(S)
2,065,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
159 contracts
795,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 554 contracts

2,770,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had xx inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nxxx  oz

total dealer withdrawals: xx oz

we had  xxx deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan:  xxx  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.825 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.12% of all official comex silver. (147 million/300.8 million)

 

i) Into everybody else:  xx

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nxxx  oz

 

we had xx withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: xxx  oz

 

we had xx adjustments..and this is what i want to see to indicate settlements.  (yet nothing for gold)

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  88.475million

total dealer + customer silver:  304.945 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2019. contract month is represented by 413 contract(s) FOR  2,065,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 554 x 5,000 oz = 2,770,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (572) and the number of notices served upon today (413 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month: 554(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL( 572) -number of notices served upon today (413)x 5000 oz equals 3,565,000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 7 contracts or an additional 35,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

ON  FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 29/2018: WE HAD 1,805,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY FOR THE  APRIL 2018 DELIVERY MONTH

AT CONCLUSION OF APRIL 2018: 2,485,000 OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS ALREADY WELL DEVELOPED IN SILVER. (APRIL IS A NON ACTIVE SILVER DELIVERY MONTH)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  73,348 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 94,481 CONTRACTS… (volume high due to raid)

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 94,481 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 472 million OZ  67.40% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.53% (APRIL 1/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.83% to NAV (APRIL 1/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.53%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.95/TRADING 12.45/DISCOUNT 3.89

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

 

MARCH 27/SURPRISING! WITH GOLD DOWN AGAIN BY $4.05, THE CROOKS NEEDED TO PUT GOLD BACK INTO THE GLD: THEY ADDED 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 781.03 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.85: A STRONG 2.94 TONNES DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 781.03 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $4.60 TODAY: A MASSIVE 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 779.27 TONNES AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1..18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED:  TOTAL GLD INVENTORY REMAINING:  778.09 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.70: A BIG CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.04 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT AGAIN OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.53 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $1.70: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.87 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY AND THIS GOLD HAS BEEN USED IN THE WHACKING PROCESS YESTERDAY AND TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD ANOTHER $12.50 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33 TONNES

FEB 26  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

 

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.99 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/ A SURPRISE GAIN (DEPOSIT) OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.50 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

APRIL 1/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 784.26 tonnes

*IN LAST 570 TRADING DAYS: 150.69 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 470 TRADING DAYS: A NET 16.13 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 656,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.957 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.957 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 469,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.957 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.356 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TODAY AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 1.17 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 516,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: STRANGE!! TWO TRANSACTIONS!!  IN THE MORNING A WITHDRAWAL OF 703,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307,800 OZ/ IN THE AFTERNOON: A DEPOSIT OF 1.56 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY FINALLY RESTS AT 309.160 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS//A  SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 610,000 OZ//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ/

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT; NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/RESTS AT 309.984

FEB 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ/

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS: SURPRISINGLY A DEPOSIT OF 1.688 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

 

APRIL 1/2019:

 

Inventory 309.301 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.10/ and libor 6 month duration 2.66

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .56

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.44%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.71

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.27

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

ItalExit and Cyber Risks in a Cashless World Are Bigger Risks Than Brexit

Profile picture for user GoldCore

Brexit Bringing Gold From London To Dublin: My Job with GoldCore CEO Stephen Flood

– Italy-exit or ItalExit: While all of the media and public attention is on the fallout from Brexit and Trump’s policies; ‘Italexit’ is possibly a bigger threat to European investors
– Digital risks to deposits: Gold will become even more valuable as a tangible asset and form of hard money hedge against fiat digital currencies and savings. A cashless society, while it boasts many benefits, it also exposes investors and savers to more concentrated digital risks and greater cyber risks. So, like an investment portfolio we should diversify our savings and not hold all our eggs in the one digital basket.
– Being Brexit ready: What does this actually mean for individuals? Lots of air time given to how businesses can prepare but what about people themselves – what can and should we be doing?
– Safe haven gold: Why gold has never really gone out of fashion and remains a hedge and safe haven; particularly as  concerns grow about the dollar as the world reserve currency; where gold’s price will go in the long term – gold back near $2,000 an ounce within the next 24 months is likely.

by John Daly for the Irish Examiner:

THE movement of a large quantity of gold bullion from London to Dublin following the opening of GoldCore vaults earlier this year reflects a growing demand from investors to relocate tangible assets out of the UK. The first consignment consisted of gold bullion coins and bars weighing 2,000 troy ounces and worth more than €2 million.

“Brexit is a threat to the UK, to Ireland and the entire EU project, it is a phenomenon that has ramifications for the entire 27 countries in the EU and its citizens,” says Stephen Flood, CEO of Goldcore. “With the rise of both left-wing and right-wing political movements, people are railing against the impact of globalisation including mobile workforces, corporatism and rising inequalities.

“Ireland’s open economy means that we are more exposed than most to Brexit and threats posed to the EU, and while much air-time has been devoted to how businesses need to take stock and prepare, less has been said about what individuals can and should do to protect themselves and their assets. Everyone needs to be aware of the risks that lie ahead and, as such, be prudent by taking steps to reduce exposures in the event of a negative outcome,” he adds.

As Brexit comes to a head, GoldCore report a growing preference amongst Irish investors to store their gold domestically in Ireland rather than Perth, Zurich, Singapore, Hong Kong, Singapore and especially London. While Zurich continues to be the most sought-after storage location, Dublin has already surpassed Singapore and Hong Kong and may now usurp the second spot from London.

“In the event that Brexit is delayed or postponed, then demand for gold stored in Ireland may be more subdued and see a more gradual uptake. Other global threats and uncertainties around trade wars etc could see the demand ramp up further.”

Founded in Dublin in 2003, GoldCore has over 16,000 private, pension and corporate clients in over 150 countries, with over €150 million in precious metals under management. Bullion coins and bars are individually allocated and segregated, ensuring direct and outright asset ownership for clients.

The company began offering storage in the Perth Mint of Western Australia in 2005 and introduced GoldCore Secure Storage in 2009. Having since grown to include specialist vaults in Zurich, London, Singapore, Hong Kong and now Dublin through vault partners. Loomis International and Brinks, GoldCore is set to expand its storage offering to additional locations, including Dubai and New Zealand, in the near future. Prudence must be a watch-word undertaken in every household and every business to mitigate the potential worst impacts of Brexit, Flood believes.

“The Irish Government have adopted a purely pro-European tactical position which infers that we must have trust in the European authorities to keep as sacrosanct our interests. This is a fallacy, as De Gaulle said: ‘nations have no friends, only interests.’ We note that in a recent German opinion poll, Brexit barely registered as a concern among the public — there is something in this. For Irish people the time has come to take a cold hard look at the reality of the situation.”

In the midst of the continual focus on Brexit in Ireland and the UK, the potentially larger threat of a so called ‘ItalExit’ and the possible departure of Italy from the EU and the European monetary union presents an even graver prospect, Flood believes.

“Italy is in political crisis, and anti-EU politicians of the left and right have been put in power by an increasingly disgruntled Italian electorate. But the risk is not simply from people power and radical politicians, there is also the real risk of another Italian debt crisis, centred on very heavily indebted Italians banks and an indebted sovereign.”

Italy’s sovereign debt is €2.3 trillion, much of which is owned by Italian banks, the highest EU debt-to-GDP ratio after Greece.

“There are concerns that Italy will have a new debt crisis which could see a default and potentially an exit from the EU and the euro,” he said. “Banks in France, Germany and Belgium are most at risk of contagion from Italy’s debt crisis. French banks are the most exposed to a sell-off in Italian bonds with €285.5billion in credit extended by French banks.”

Flood takes a contra view to the idea that a cashless society would eliminate gold from use and hence be less valued as a store of value.

“A cashless society, while it boasts many benefits, also exposes people to greater cyber risks as digital assets, like deposits, are exposed to hacking, cyber terror and war. So, as with all investments, we should diversify and not hold all our eggs in one cashless basket, or indeed on one digital or paper basket.”

He cites the opinion of Ken Rogoff — the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund — that gold’s role is likely to increase as cash will be used less and “the trend towards digital currencies” will also benefit gold which “as a hedge, has enormous value.”

While gold has become less popular in recent years as the Irish and global economy recovered and stock and property markets surged in value, investors concerned about Brexit, trade wars and other global risks have continued to diversify into the precious metal.

“History and recent history and indeed academic and independent research has shown that gold is a hedge and a safe haven. Today, the biggest gold buyers in the world are the largest central banks, including the People’s Bank of China. There are increasing concerns about the medium and long-term outlook for the dollar and, in time, its status as the world’s reserve currency will come to an end.”

Looking to the future, Flood sees gold back near $2,000 an ounce within the next 24 months as a more than likely scenario.

“We would be surprised if gold does not surpass $2,000. Much higher levels are likely in the longer term, and in a currency reset scenario or new Bretton Woods style monetary agreement, it could go to over $5,000. As ever, exactly predicting the future price of any asset is a fool’s errand.”

Courtesy of the Irish Examiner

 


Complimentary Storage In Zurich For 6 Month when you purchase the minimum amount of 10,000 ($€£) in physical gold and or silver for a limited time only until April 18

 

Mario Draghi and the Case for Gold in 2019 – Watch On YouTube

 

News and Commentary

Gold slips as equities gain on trade talk progress, China data (Reuters.com)

Russian banks join Chinese alternative to SWIFT payment system (RT.com)

Oil prices rise, adding to biggest quarterly gain in 10 years (Reuters.com)

Asia lifted as Wall Street climbs on trade developments, pound sags (Reuters.com)

U.S. Mint American Eagle gold coin sales fall 8 pct in March (Reuters.com)


Source: Bloombrg via Yahoo

Russia is dumping U.S. dollars to hoard gold (Yahoo.com)

Why Russia Is Dumping Dollars And Buying Gold At The Fastest Pace In Decades (ZeroHedge.com)

Global Bond-Market Investors Are Getting Really Nervous (Bloomberg.com)

Russia now can cover its debt dollar for dollar in cash (IntelliNews.com)

White House calls for Fed to reverse U.S. rate hikes (Reuters.com)

Hunter for Nazi Gold Train Finds Renaissance Wall Portraits Instead (TheVintageNews.com)

 

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

29 Mar: USD 1,291.15, GBP 991.09 & EUR 1,151.19 per ounce
28 Mar: USD 1,306.90, GBP 995.20 & EUR 1,161.18 per ounce
27 Mar: USD 1,318.25, GBP 997.78 & EUR 1,168.23 per ounce
26 Mar: USD 1,315.25, GBP 993.15 & EUR 1,162.02 per ounce
25 Mar: USD 1,319.35, GBP 1001.39 & EUR 1,165.82 per ounce
22 Mar: USD 1,311.10, GBP 998.80 & EUR 1,159.41 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

29 Mar: USD 15.10, GBP 11.52 & EUR 13.45 per ounce
28 Mar: USD 15.19, GBP 11.58 & EUR 13.53 per ounce
27 Mar: USD 15.40, GBP 11.65 & EUR 13.65 per ounce
26 Mar: USD 15.44, GBP 11.66 & EUR 13.65 per ounce
25 Mar: USD 15.52, GBP 11.77 & EUR 13.72 per ounce
22 Mar: USD 15.46, GBP 11.75 & EUR 13.68 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Ireland and EU Countries Must Seek ECB Approval to Manage Gold Reserves – Draghi
– Global Risks Increasing – Underlining The Case For Gold in 2019 (GoldCore Video Presentation)
– ‘No Deal’ Brexit Risk Impacting UK and Irish Economies – Gold Gains On Recession Concerns
– America’s “Debt Crisis Is Coming Soon”
– Russia Buys 1 Million Ounces Of Gold In February – Become Your Own Central Bank
– 5 Ways to Prosper In the Coming Crisis – Goldnomics Podcast
– Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank May Become EU’s “Too Big To Fail” Bank
– Happy Saint Patrick’s Day from GoldCore
– 188 Internet Shutdowns In 2018 Show Why Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection

 

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

We have brought this to story to you last week but it is worth repeating:

Russia is dumping USA dollars to hoard gold

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Russia is dumping U.S. dollars to hoard gold

 Section: 

By Andrey Biryukov, Rupert Rowling, and Yuliya Fedorinova
Bloomberg News
Thursday, March 28, 2019

Vladimir Putin’s quest to break Russia’s reliance on the U.S. dollar has set off a literal gold rush.

Within the span of a decade, the country quadrupled its bullion reserves and 2018 marked the most ambitious year yet. And the pace is keeping up so far this year. Data from the central bank show that holdings rose by 1 million ounces in February, the most since November.

… 

 

The data shows that Russia is making rapid progress in its effort to diversify away from American assets. Analysts, who have coined the term de-dollarization, speculate about the global economic impacts if more countries adopt a similar philosophy and what it could mean for the dollar’s desirability compared with other assets, such as gold or the Chinese yuan. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-29/russia-is-stocking-up…

end

Why Russia Is Dumping Dollars And Buying Gold At The Fastest Pace In Decades

Nine months ago, as US Treasury yields were drifting lower from a seven-year high reached in May of last year, we pointed out a curious development in the market for US sovereign debt that to our complete lack of surprise had been overlooked by the mainstream financial press: In April and May, Russia’s central bank liquidated $81 billion in Treasurys, nearly its entire holdings.

The drop was so significant, that Russia fell off the Treasurys list of the 30 or so largest Treasury holders. And in the months that have followed, as the US has imposed more economic sanctions and feuded with Putin over the fate of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, Vladimir Putin has turned instead to alternative reserves as the country’s de-dollarization push continued.

Over the same period of time, Russia was a conspicuously large buyer of Chinese yuan, as Goldman Sachs noted (and as we highlightedwell earlier today), helping contribute to a spike in yuan buying by reserve managers last year, as the IMF pointed out in a recent report.

Reserves

Reserves

But given the yuan’s still-limited convertibility, it has its limitations as a reliable reserve for foreign central banks. Which is probably why Moscow has relied on another reserve option that’s popularity has endured for most of the history of human civilization: Gold.

Data from the Russian central bank cited by Bloomberg show that its gold reserves have nearly quadrupled over the past ten years, and that 2018 marked the most “ambitious year yet” for Russia gold-buying, which coincided with the Central Bank of Russia’s mass-dumping of its Treasury holdings.

Russia

And in a rare, if muted, acknowledgement from the American financial press that de-dollarization is a contemporary threat that should be taken seriously, BBG said that “analysts, who have coined the term de-dollarizationspeculate about the global economic impacts if more countries adopt a similar philosophy and what it could mean for the dollar’s desirability compared with other assets, such as gold or the Chinese yuan.”

RS

While Russia’s dependence on exporting commodities like gold means it must continue to depend, at least in part, on the greenback (three-quarters of Russia’s $600 billion of trade is conducted in dollars, per BBG), this voracious gold buying is setting an example for other countries – in the west as well as in the east. Last year, Russia’s gold buying outstripped its gold production for the first time. And as relations with the US continue to deteriorate as longstanding arms control treaties are torn up and belligerent rhetoric spouted by both Trump and Putin, the Russian central bank might start importing more gold, which could have a positive impact on the global price.

Russia

Per two analysts, Russia has single handedly “put a floor” under the price of gold. Though some suspect that, since the CBR is now a known quantity in international gold markets, it would need to markedly accelerate its purchases to have a material impact on the price. Though few expect Russia to stop buying now.

Central bank buying has helped “strengthen gold from a weak hand to a strong hand” and supported gold prices in recent years, according to Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, managing partner at Liechtenstein-based asset manager Incrementum AG. Bullion has risen more than 20 percent since the start of 2016. It traded up 0.5 percent at $1,297.15 per ounce at 12:40 p.m. in London.

“If it wasn’t for Russia’s central bank, last year would have been the worst year for gold buying in a decade, so it helped put a floor on the price,” said Adrian Ash, head of research at gold brokerage BullionVault Ltd. “However, Russian buying is now well known so it would take a significant increase in their purchases to materially impact the gold price.”

But perhaps the most notable aspect of Putin’s rhetoric about de-dollarization  is how it’s apparently influencing leaders of states that are still – at least nominally – friendly toward the US. French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview late last year that Europe is too dependent on the greenback, declaring it “an issue of sovereignty” (this from one of the most ardently pro-EU politicians on the Continent). And last year, Poland and Hungary surprised the market by making the first substantial purchases of gold by EU member states in more than a decade.

So the next time you hear an analyst on CNBC categorically dismiss the notion that the loss of the dollar’s reserve currency status isn’t something that markets should take seriously (even as several credible voices have warned that it should be), you’d do well to remember this chart.

Reserves

Nothing lasts forever.

Andrew Maguire correctly states that the BIS is orchestrating smashing gold/silver due to mark to market losses on gold derivatives. He also outlines how the crooks use the spreading trade to cause options to expire worthless.

(courtesy Andrew Maguire/Kingworldnews/GATA)

BIS smashed metals this week to avoid bad Q1 mark-to-market for gold derivatives, Maguire tells KWN

 Section: 

4:15p HKT Saturday, March 30, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

This week’s smashdown in the monetary metals, London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells King World News, was engineered by the Bank for International Settlements to avoid a nasty first-quarter marking-to-market of gold derivatives held by bullion banks. Maguire adds that the smash pushed gold and silver futures into “actionable” backwardation and that strong hands are accumulating real metal at current prices. The interview is excerpted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-unprecedented-gold-silver-backw…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Trump calls on the Fed to reverse interest rates

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

Trump calls on Fed to reverse interest rate hikes

 Section: 

From Reuters
Friday, March 29, 2019

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that the Federal Reserve made a mistake by raising interest rates and blamed the central bank for hurting the U.S. economy and stock market.

“Had the Fed not mistakenly raised interest rates, especially since there is very little inflation, and had they not done the ridiculously timed quantitative tightening, the 3.0 percent GDP, & Stock Market, would have both been much higher & World Markets would be in a better place!,” Trump tweeted.

The remarks were part of a new attack the White House has launched against the independent central bank in their unusual public split. The Fed’s Board of Governors did not immediately comment. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-trump/white-house-calls-for-f…

end

A must see interview of Chris Powell and Stefan Gleason on the gold/price suppression etc

(courtesy Stefan Gleason/Chris Powell/Money Metals Exchange/GATA)

In Money Metals Exchange interview, GATA secretary updates gold price suppression

 Section: 

12:18p HKT Monday, April 1, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Money Metals Exchange’s Mike Gleason has interviewed your secretary/treasurer about recent developments with gold price suppression. Among the topics:

— The refusal of mainstream financial news organizations to put any critical questions to central banks.

— The refusal of the monetary metals mining industry generally to protest price suppression because the industry is so vulnerable to governments and their investment bank agents.

— The renewal by CME Group, operator of the major U.S. futures exchanges, of its “Central Bank Incentive Program,” under which governments and central banks receive discounts for surreptitiously trading all major futures contracts in the United States.

— The regular monthly interventions in the gold market by the Bank for International Settlements to control the gold price on behalf of its member central banks.

The interview is headlined “GATA’s Chris Powell Reveals Why Governments Are Manipulating the Precious Metals,” begins at the 7:08 mark here —

https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2019/03/29/why-government-manipulat…

— and continues for 22 minutes. It is accompanied by a transcript.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Perhaps the only national that can accomplish this:  Russia can nover cover its entire debt dolar for dollar with its foreign reserves.

(courtesy BNE/Berlin//GATA)

Russia now can cover its debt dollar for dollar in cash

 Section: 

By Ben Aris
BNE Intellinews, Berlin
Sunday, March 31, 2019

Russia’s gross international reserves, including gold, continue to creep upwards and reached $487.1 billion as of March 22 — enough to cover Russia’s external debt dollar for dollar in cash.

In February during his state of the nation speech President Vladimir Putin boasted that for the first time Russia has enough money in its reserves to cover all its external debt with cash.

At the end of the last quarter of 2018 Russia had an external debt of $453.7 billion and the debt has been falling steadily over the 12 months as the government makes use of the windfall from rising oil prices and falling expenditures to pay off more debt early.

Russia already had one of the lowest levels of debt of any major country. While most western countries have debt-to-GDP ratios well above the Maastricht rules-recommended maximum of 60 percent (and some like Italy are well over 100 percent), Russia’s debt-to-GDP ratio has been hovering around 15 percent for years. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.intellinews.com/russia-can-cover-its-debt-dollar-for-dollar-i…

* * *

Join GATA here:

Mines and Money Asia
Hong Kong Conference and Exhibition Center
Wan Chai, Hong Kong
Tuesday-Thursday, April 2-4

https://asia.minesandmoney.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

All central banks are failing to maintain their own currency values as well as prevent recessions

(Egon Non Greyerz/GATA)

Central banks fail to maintain currency values and prevent recessions, von Greyerz writes at KWN

 Section: 

2:50p HKT Monday, April 1, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Central banks, Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz writes at King World News today, claim to maintain the value of their currencies, but they don’t, even as the U.S. Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates in the name of maintaining prosperity but always fails to avert recessions. Von Greyerz’s commentary is posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-the-fed-may-revalue-gold-to-14000-as-m…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END


iii) Other Physical stories
seems that Peter Schiff was the last to be excluded from interviews by mainstream media.  I guess we became too toxic like the rest of us
(courtesy Peter Schiff/zerohedge)

Peter Schiff: This Is Permanent Debt Monetization, A Dollar Collapse Is Next

In his most recent media appearance, Peter Schiff blasts the mainstream financial media and Fed policies, which he believes to be inflating the “biggest bubble yet”. Schiff appeared on the Quoth the Raven Podcast on Sunday and spent an hour and a half explaining his case as to why the United States is heading to a currency crisis.

Schiff On the Financial Media

Schiff led off talking about why he doesn’t get any mainstream financial media attention anymore, partly responding to recent commentsby CNBC contributor Guy Adami that Schiff was “bad for TV”.

“They abruptly cancelled my appearance a day before I was supposed to go on,” he said of a scheduled interview with Rick Santelli on CNBC. “They haven’t tried to book me since. Obviously Santelli’s team didn’t get the memo that Peter Schiff’s not allowed on.”

“I think they want to shield the audience from my perspective,” he continued. “Maybe they think they’re doing their audience a favor by keeping me off the air.”

Schiff On Gold

He continues the interview, explaining why he suggests his clients constantly keep 5-10% of their capital in gold. When asked about how he personally invests versus how he advises his clients, he explains why he is the most overweight gold miner stocks that he’s ever been.

Schiff also says we will need a gold standard again, which he thinks is inevitable, much to the dispassion of the government. “When they choose gold, which is the right choice, it’ll only be because they’ve exhausted everything else that wouldn’t work. When they admit we need a gold standard, the party’s over”.

“Gold keeps government honest, which is why the government doesn’t want it,” he said.

Schiff on the Fed’s Reversal

Schiff also talked at length about the Fed’s most recent decision to not raise rates again in 2019.

“The Fed did a reversal. A complete 180,” Schiff says about the Fed’s most recent minutes. “They’re never going to complete the normalization process,” Schiff recounts saying in late 2018 interviews. “I’m one of the only people out there saying the Fed is BSing, but the markets believed it.”

Schiff said either the Fed was deliberately lying in late 2018 when they said they would continue to taper and hike, or that they just didn’t know. Either way, Schiff believes that we are now in the midst of a bear market rally – not a bull market – as a result.

“I said they were going to wait for an excuse to abort normalization because they couldn’t tell the truth. They can’t raise interest rates because there’s too much debt,” he says. “It has nothing to do with problems abroad, it has nothing to do with Brexit.”

“This is permanent debt monetization,” he says.

You can list to the full 90 minute podcast here:

https://www.podbean.com/media/player/8nkiq-ac87c1&?from=site&vjs=1&skin=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=1

Peter Schiff is Chairman of SchiffGold, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, Inc, and host of The Peter Schiff Show. Peter is an economic forecaster and investment advisor influenced by the free-market Austrian School of economics. He is one of the few forecasters who accurately and publicly predicted the 2007 housing market collapse and subsequent 2008 financial crisis.

Visit www.schiffgold.com for more on Peter Schiff. 

Visit www.quoththeravenresearch.com for more on Quoth the Raven Research. 

 

-END-

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7117/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7193   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 79.60 POINTS OR 2.58% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 510.66 POINTS OR 1.76%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed //UP 303.02 POINTS OR 1.43%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.11/Euro RISES TO 1.1230

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.07/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.98/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.62 and Brent: 68.53

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP  /OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO –.04%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.51% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.13%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.55: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.71

3k Gold at $1290.80 silver at:15.09   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 13/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.54

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.98 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9951 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1176 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to –0.04%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.44% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.85%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.5702..GETTING DANGEROUS

 

Global Stocks Soar On Chinese Economic Optimism

Over the weekend China reported a key inflection point in its manufacturing PMI , which had its first expansionary print in 5 months, and the market saw right through this attempt to generate optimism that global economic headwinds are finally abating, and promptly sold off.

Just kidding, April fools!

As happens every single time, global stocks surged higher on Monday, extending gains from their best quarter in nearly 10 years, as algos and traders dutifully ignored the fact that every single number out of China is carefully goalseeked and politically motivated – in this case meant to shift the trade war balance of power in favor of China whose economy is now on the rebound despite the ongoing US tariffs – and overnight global markets were a sea of green as “Chinese economic optimism” is now the dominant narrative, taking over from “US-China trade talk optimism.”

 

As we reported previously, on Sunday China’s NBS said that the country’s manufacturing PMI rebounded strongly in March from a contractionary 49.2, printing at 50.5, its first expansion since September 2018, and beating estimates of a 49.6 reading. The non-manufacturing PMI continued its recent improvement, rising to 54.8, also the best reading since last September, as both the services and construction PMIs strengthened, and resulted in the composite PMI rising to 54.0 from 52.4.

Predictably, Asian stocks, European bourses and S&P 500 futures all jumped as traders woke up to news of “strong manufacturing data” out of the world’s second largest economy which helped ease investor worries about a slowdown in global growth.

Just as predictably, analysts were effusive in their praise of this goalseeked Chinese number:

  • “Investors’ sentiment seems to be tilting to the side of optimism at the beginning of the second quarter, following a robust manufacturing report from China,” said Konstantinos Anthis, head of research at ADSS. “This news helps ease market participants’ worries over the odds of an upcoming recession on a global scale, even though there are plenty of signs suggesting caution,” Anthis said.
  • China’s PMI reading “was encouraging,” said Thomas Harr, global head of fixed income and commodity research at Danske Bank. “There is still a good chance that global and euro-zone growth will improve in coming quarters, as the U.S. and China will reach a trade deal, while the Fed’s dovish shift and China’s stimulus will help.”

Confirming China’s renaissance, the private Caixin/Markit PMI business survey released on Monday also showed the manufacturing sector in the world’s second biggest economy returning to growth.

The immediate result was investor euphoria which swept across Asia as MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 1%, Chinese shares surged 2.6% to the highest since May, while Hong Kong stocks entered a bull market. Australian stocks climbed 0.6 percent, South Korea’s KOSPI gained 1.3 percent and Japan’s Nikkei advanced 1.4 percent.

 

“The rebound likely reflects both the resumption of production after the Chinese New Year break and renewed stimulus and policy easing,” UBS strategists wrote in a note to clients. “We expect China to continue easing policy, with signs of economic stabilization backing our overweight position on offshore Chinese equities in our Asia portfolios” they added.

Asian optimism quickly went global as European stocks posted their best daily gains since mid-February, as the pan-European STOXX 600 index surged 0.8% in early trading. Germany’s trade-sensitive DAX outperformed with a 1 percent rise helped by gains in auto maker stocks as European carmakers advanced more than 2 percent. That’s despite manufacturing data for Europe coming in at the lowest since 2013, which briefly caused the euro to pare some of its gains.

The German manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index slipped to 44.1 in March, worse than a flash reading of 44.7 that was already well below economist estimates. With sentiment at Asian factories stabilizing, German bonds fell, pushing the yield on 10-year securities up 3 basis points to minus 0.04 percent at 9:34 a.m. Frankfurt time.

 

French manufacturing also shrank more than expected as the PMI there was revised down to 49.7, however all this was generally ignored in light of the newly-found Chinese economic optimism.

As Bloomberg notes, global equities are building on their strongest quarter since 2010 amid bets that dovish tilts by major central banks will help prop up earnings. The Chinese data went some way toward easing worries about a slowdown prior to the release of American monthly jobs numbers at the end of the week, while Treasury 10-year yields have also increased. U.S.-China trade talks will resume when Vice Premier Liu He leads a delegation to Washington later this week, potentially offering more positive developments for investors.

China’s recovery pushed yields higher, and the closely watched 3-month/10-year yield spread has pulled back from negative territory and stood around 3 basis points after investing two weeks ago.

In currencies, the dollar traded lower versus most of its G-10 peers after better-than-expected China data eased concern global growth was slowing. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.2%, snapping a four-day winning streak amid strong demand for upside exposure through options; it briefly pared losses after German mfg PMI data misses estimates, before falling to a new day low amid strong risk sentiment. Major emerging-market currencies advanced while sterling gains ahead of a U.K. parliamentary debate on various Brexit options.

Sterling was 0.6% higher to the dollar at $1.3114 on Monday, after taking its latest knock after British lawmakers rejected Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal for a third time on Friday. The Australian dollar advanced 0.45 percent to $0.7127, also benefiting from the China data. The Aussie is sensitive to shifts in the economic outlook for China, the country’s main trading partner.

Treasury 10-year yield climbed as much as 4bps to 2.4475%; Risk-sensitive currencies lead gains in the G-10, while the yen drops; Antipodean and Scandinavian currencies gain along with China’s yuan as Chinese Vice Premier Liu He scheduled to lead a delegation of trade negotiators to Washington on Wednesday after officials held talks in Beijing. The yen declined, while the Turkish lira slipped initially as preliminary results from the weekend’s municipal elections showed that Turkey opposition party claimed victory in Istanbul and Ankara, while the ruling AK Party also initially claimed to have won in Istanbul following local elections over the weekend which was seen as a referendum on President Erdogan. However. President Erdogan later commented that although the Mayorship may have been lost in Istanbul, they won in many of its municipalities; the lira initially slumped lower before it exploded higher after it emerged that Turkey is once again cracking down on shorts as the overnight swap rate surged to 260%.

In commodities, oil prices rose, adding to gains in the first quarter when the major benchmarks posted their biggest increases in nearly a decade, as concerns about supplies outweigh fears of a slowing global economy. Crude oil prices added to Friday’s gains, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gaining 0.9 percent to $60.69 per barrel. Brent was 1.3 percent higher at $68.46 per barrel.

Economic data include retail sales, ISM manufacturing, construction spending and business inventories.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 2,859.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 383.38
  • MXAP up 1% to 161.44
  • MXAPJ up 1% to 534.46
  • Nikkei up 1.4% to 21,509.03
  • Topix up 1.5% to 1,615.81
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 29,562.02
  • Shanghai Composite up 2.6% to 3,170.36
  • Sensex up 0.9% to 39,024.05
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 6,216.96
  • Kospi up 1.3% to 2,168.28
  • German 10Y yield rose 4.5 bps to -0.025%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1248
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 2.134%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.7 bps to 1.134%
  • Brent Futures up 1.7% to $68.71/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,290.74
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 97.04

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for Germany slipped to 44.1 in March, worse than a flash reading of 44.7 that was already well below economist estimates
  • U.K. manufacturers intensified stockpiling last month as they prepared for Brexit. IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.1 in March, the highest since February 2018, from 52.1 the previous month, the firm said on Monday
  • The Chinese government said it will extend a suspension of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. autos and include the opioid fentanyl in a list of controlled substances, two steps that could generate a positive atmosphere for trade negotiations due to resume this week. Beijing temporarily scrapped the 25 percent tariff imposed on vehicles as a tit-for- tat measure on Jan. 1, after the White House delayed a rise in tariffs on $200 billion of products that had been due that day
  • Saudi Aramco was the world’s most profitable company in 2018, easily surpassing U.S. behemoths including Apple Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp., according to an extract of the firm’s accounts published by Fitch Ratings
  • Asset managers switched to net long NZD from short, CFTC data for week ended March 26 show. Leveraged funds raised their net GBP long positions and boosted net EUR shorts

Asian equity markets began the new quarter on the front-foot with momentum sustained from last Friday’s global rally in which the S&P 500 notched its best quarterly performance in nearly a decade and as the region also cheered encouraging Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (+0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.4%) gained from the open in which Consumer Staples led the broad gains across Australia’s sectors after Woolworths completed the sale of its petrol business and announced to return funds through a AUD 1.7bln off-market buyback, while the Japanese benchmark shrugged off a weak Tankan survey and was among the best performers with risk appetite fuelled by favourable currency flows. Hang Seng (+1.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+2.6%) were uplifted by strong Chinese data in which the Official Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs all topped estimates with the official reading in expansionary territory for the first time since October. Furthermore, trade optimism and the inclusion of China’s onshore bonds in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index from today further added to the optimism with the mainland firmly extending on the over-3% gains seen on Friday and with the Hang Seng now in bull market territory. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid similar weakness in T-notes and as a rally across riskier assets dampened safe-haven demand, while the BoJ recently announced its purchase intentions for the month in which it kept all amounts unchanged.

Top Asian News

  • Analysts Downgrade China’s Stocks at Fastest Clip Since 2011
  • Why Trump’s Sale of Fighter Jets Designed in 1970s Spooks China
  • China Stocks Start April With Bang, Bonds Slide After Data Boost
  • Philippine Stocks Falls Most in Asia as World Bank Cuts Forecast

A stellar start to the week for European stocks [Eurostoxx 50 +0.7%] following an inspiring performance in Asia where mainland China advanced in excess of 2% on the back of optimistic China manufacturing PMIs. Broad-based gains are being seen across major European indices, although Germany’s DAX (+1.5%) modestly outperforms peers, driven forward by the likes of auto names [Daimler +3.5%, Volkswagen +2.6% and BMW +1.8%] after Chinese PMIs topped estimates. Furthermore, the release also bolstered other China exposed sectors, i.e. luxury names, with Swatch (+1.4%), Richemont (+0.8%), LMVH (+1.0%) all performing well in their respective bourses. Sectors are also showing broad-based positivity, although utilities are underperforming as investors move away from defensive stocks. In terms of notable movers, WPP (+3.2%) rests at the top of the FTSE after a Deutsche Bank upgrade, whilst easyJet (-7.9%) shares declined after company CEO warned of a cautious H2 outlook as he expects softer yields from UK and European tickets.

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Inflation Slows as Core Measure Falls to 11-Month Low
  • Turkey Election Board Says Opposition Leading Race in Istanbul
  • U.K. Parliament Seizes Control Amid Brexit Rift in May’s Tories
  • U.K. Factory Index Climbs to 13-Month High on Brexit Stockpiling
  • Korian Shares Fall After Deaths at French Retirement Home

In FX, AUD/NZD/GBP/NOK/SEK – All beneficiaries of forecast-beating PMIs, albeit indirectly in the case of the Antipodean Dollars, as encouraging Chinese surveys overnight lifted broad risk sentiment and the Aussie and Kiwi accordingly. Meanwhile, a significantly better than expected UK headline print was mainly boosted by further pre-Brexit stock-piling, although output, new orders and jobs sub-components also improved and activity in both Scandi manufacturing sectors expanded at a faster pace. Hence, Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd are both looking firmer above big figure levels at 0.7100 and 0.6800 respectively, with the former also probing above its 50 DMA (0.7119), while Cable extended its rebound from last week’s lows and back over 1.3000 to circa 1.3100, breaching its 55 DMA (1.3075) on the way. However, the latest round of IVs present more risk and uncertainty for the Pound with up to 8 amendments up for selection around 2.30 pm before debates and voting tonight – for a more detailed schedule and analysis see our headline feed. Elsewhere, Eur/Nok is back down below 9.6500 and Eur/Sek sub-10.4000 to test multi technical support levels including the 30 DMA (10.3844), 200 DMA (10.3812) and the bottom of a chart cloud (10.3785). Back down under, and the Aud will be looking for independent impetus via the RBA tomorrow with options pricing a 35 pip break-even for the event – full preview also available via the headline feed.

  • EUR/CHF – Also firmer vs the Usd as the DXY retreats towards 97.000 again, but capped around 1.1250 and 0.9935 respectively in wake of relatively downbeat PMIs and Swiss retail sales.
  • CAD/JPY – The G10 laggards, as the Loonie meanders between 1.3340-30 vs its US counterpart and the Jpy pivots 111.00 amidst the aforementioned general revival in risk appetite post-Chinese PMIs, and with the headline pair also underpinned by a downbeat Japanese Tankan report. However, 111.20 is holding (just) and represents a 61.8% Fib retracement of the 112.13-109.70 downmove.
  • EM – Contrasting fortunes for the Lira and Rand, as weekend municipal elections in Turkey saw some key losses for the ruling AK Party to main opposition CHP, but not enough to threaten President Erdogan’s overall majority and result in regime change. Usd/Try has been up to 5.7000+ in response vs Usd/Zar that has been as low as 14.2225 after Moody’s delayed its latest credit review of SA and any potential cut in the rating and/or outlook, for the time being at least.

In commodities, the upbeat sentiment emanating from the optimistic China metrics overnight has supported sentiment alongside the demand outlook for the energy complex. Brent futures are marching with gains of around USD 1.0/bbl while WTI futures advance over USD 0.50/bbl. Brent oil has reached levels last seen in November, and from a technical front, the 200 DMA for Brent resides around USD 69.68/bbl and around USD 61.50/bbl for WTI. Furthermore, BAML expects Brent to average USD 74/bbl in Q2 2019, and USD 70/bbl in 2019. Meanwhile, the bank sees WTI averaging USD 56/bbl in 2019 and USD 60/bbl in 2020. Elsewhere, the latest CFTC data shows that speculative net long NYMEX WTI by almost 26k lots over last week, with a bulk of the buying coming from fresh longs. Of note, this month sees the EIA short-term energy outlook release on the 9th, OPEC monthly report on the 10th and IAE oil market report the day after. It is also worth noting that traders will be keeping an eye on trade developments as US is to host a Chinese trade delegation on the 3rd. In metals, gold prices succumbed to the positive risk tone as the yellow metal remains below the USD 1300/oz, albeit off lows. Meanwhile, the aforementioned China data bolstered copper prices to levels just shy of USD 3.00/lb, to levels last seen in June 2018. Elsewhere, iron ore prices have been supported by the Caixin-beat alongside a force majeure by Rio Tinto which will result in a loss of around 14mln tonnes of production this year. As such, Goldman Sachs raised iron ore price forecasts with 3-month estimate at USD 85/ton (Prev. USD 80), 6-month estimate at USD 80/ton (Prev. USD 75/ton) and 1-year estimate at USD 70/ton (Prev. USD 65).

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.9%
    • Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior 1.1%
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.5, prior 52.5
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 54.5, prior 54.2;
  • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 1.3%
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.5%, prior 0.6%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy April Fool’s Day, the day I first met my wife 9 years ago. Insert your own gag here. I can guarantee she has no idea of this anniversary. The problem or advantage (depending on your view) with doing a market’s related April Fool’s is that there have been so many strange things happen over the last few years that nearly anything could be true! Anyway I hope you all had a good weekend. On Saturday I played golf in shorts in the blazing sun and on Sunday I took the family out for Mother’s Day lunch to find that tables were only available outside. Problem was that it was freezing as the weather had completely turned. A lot of tears followed. The children were also upset. The clocks also went forward here in Europe and my wife thinks it must have been a male conspiracy to ensure that Mother’s Day was only 23 hours long this year.

There is some good news to start the week and the new quarter as yesterday saw the crucial Chinese manufacturing PMI number rise to 50.5 from 49.2 last month, the biggest increase since 2012 and beating all consensus estimates. Sub components that are very closely watched for forward looking momentum – new orders (51.6 from 50.6) and new export orders (47.1 from 45.2) – both rose to the highest levels in six months. The non-manufacturing also rose to 54.8 from 54.3 last month and 54.4 expected. The composite number increased from 52.4 to 54 the highest since September 2018. Overnight, China’s Caixin March manufacturing PMI also beat expectations at 50.8 from 49.9 last month (50.0 expected). The accompanying commentary along with the Caixin release said that the sub-index for new orders climbed to its highest level in four months while the new export orders returned to expansionary territory. Given the recent domestic stimulus – which our rates strategist Francis Yared has written about being around half the size of the growth bursting 2016 version – we have been expecting a bounce back in China but it had been a little elusive until now. The data could have elements of lunar holiday distortions depressing the comparisons from February but for now it will be a tentative welcome relief for global growth, especially for the Europeans. Our Chinese economists point out that we’ll know more as to whether this is an upswing when March’s activity data is released on April 17th.

In response, Chinese equities are leading the gains in Asia with the Shanghai Comp (+2.29%), CSI (+2.31%) and Shenzhen Comp (+3.03%) all up. The Nikkei (+1.72%), Hang Seng (+1.65%) and Kospi (+1.18%) are also up alongside most Asian markets. The Japanese yen is down -0.17% this morning and the yield on 10yr JGBs is up +1.4bps to -0.087%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.63% and the 2yr and 10yr treasury yields are both up c. +3bps this morning.

Overnight China’s government has said that it will extend a suspension of retaliatory tariffs on US autos and include the opioid fentanyl in a list of controlled substances. The moves comes ahead of a visit by China’s Vice Premier Liu He later in the week to the US for continuing trade talks. The statement from China’s Minsitry of Finance said that the move seeks to “continue to create a good atmosphere for China-U.S. economic and trade talks” and is a “positive response” to the U.S. decision to delay tariff increases.

Elsewhere over the weekend, we had local elections in Turkey yesterday where President Erdogan’s party lost in the country’s capital Ankara and key cities along the Mediterranean coast while retaining its control in rural interiors and Istanbul (Bloomberg). The Turkish lira is down c. 1% overnight as market participants remain concerned about the ruling party announcing further populist policies to shore up declining support. Ahead of the elections, the BIST 100 equity index fell -6.1% last week, its worst weekly performance since October. The overnight swap rate ended the week at 28.98%, having risen over 1300% during last week.

Moving on to Brexit, over the weekend Conservative Party Deputy Chairman James Cleverly told Sky News on Sunday that the Tories are taking “pragmatic” steps to prepare for an election. He added though that it’s not the central plan, but the party is making preparations nonetheless. Meanwhile, the latest opinion polls are showing that the support for the opposition Labour party is now turning around with the Deltapoll/ Mail on Sunday poll indicating that the Labour party (at 41%) now leads the Conservative party (at +36%) in polls. Another opinion poll released over the weekend by Opinium & The Observer showed both parties at 35%. Will the market start to worry again about a left wing U.K. government? Elsewhere, the Sun reported on Saturday that some 170 Tories, including 11 cabinet ministers, wrote to May on Friday urging a no-deal departure on April 12. In terms of timeline for today’s vote on alternative options, House of Commons speaker John Bercow will announce the exact motions to be debated today at 2:30pm and the plan is to conclude the debate at 8:00 pm and then hold votes. Sterling is trading down +0.08% this morning.

As we start Q2, the European PMIs this morning will be the key event, especially after the disappointing flash numbers around 10 days ago. If China is turning up it might be too early for this to filter into these numbers so maybe disappointment over any softness will be tempered for now given the China strength. The equivalent number in the US will also be important later on. Elsewhere politics can be expected to remain on the agenda, both with the latest trade talks between the US and China, as well as any further Brexit developments which today sees a second round of indicative votes but as the week roles on could see us closer to a fresh general election. Brexit continues to be a high stakes game with no obvious way to resolve it. As ever March’s US payrolls report (Friday) will also be a highlight, as will the minutes from March’s ECB meeting (Thursday) especially given the perceived communication mis-step at that time. As for the rest of the upcoming events we’ll have the full day by day week ahead at the end.

This morning my colleague Craig has got back from his holiday on the West Coast of the US and has just published the Q1/March asset performance review. I mistakenly mentioned on Friday that he had gone skiing and completely forgot that him and I had a long conversation about his trip along the US coast just before he went away. Good man management. Nick in my team is off this week and I think he’s actually gone skiing but perhaps he’s on safari in Africa!! Anyway see here for the full performance review report but suffice to say it was a quarter to remember just as 2018 was a year to forget. Indeed, Q1 ended with 37 out of the 38 assets in our sample finishing with a positive total return in local currency terms, and 35 out of 38 assets in dollar adjusted terms doing so. Picking out some of the highlights at an asset level, this was the best quarter for WTI Oil (+32.4%) and the S&P 500 (+13.6%) since Q2 2009, US HY (+7.5%) since Q4 2011, the Shanghai Comp (+23.9%) since Q4 2014 and the STOXX 600 (+13.3%) since Q1 2015. In fact we had 11 assets end Q1 with double digit returns, the most since Q1 2012. Very impressive and 2018 and Q1 2019 are an illustration as to the impact central banks are still having on global markets in both directions.

Global equities ended the quarter by advancing last week on a bit of a wall of worry as rates plunged. The S&P 500 rose +1.20% (+0.67% Friday), with the STOXX 600 +0.81% (+0.60% Friday). Government bond yields continued to fall, with German ten-year bund yields deeper into negative territory as they lost -5.5bps to settle at -0.072%. US ten-year yields fell -3.4bps, ending the week at 2.41%, although the 2s10s curve steepened +2.1bps last week to close at 14.7bps. Positive sentiment also lifted oil prices, with Brent Crude +2.03% (+0.84% Friday).

Data generally supported the positive sentiment on Friday, with German retail sales rising unexpectedly in February by +0.9% mom (vs. -1.0% expected), while the country’s unemployment rate also fell to 4.9% in March, its lowest rate since German reunification. In the US, the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March rose to 98.4 (vs. 97.8 expected). Ahead of today’s Eurozone inflation reading for March, Friday also saw the French harmonised reading at 1.3%, its lowest since February 2018, while in Italy, harmonised inflation remained at 1.1%.

The latest word from the US-China trade talks was positive on Friday with China’s official Xinhua News Agency saying on Friday that “new progress” had been made in the talks with US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin in Beijing. Mnuchin described the discussions as “constructive”. Further talks will be taking place this week as Chinese Vice Premier Liu He visits Washington next week for further discussions.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 79.60 POINTS OR 2.58% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 510.66 POINTS OR 1.76%  /The Nikkei closed UP 303.02 POINTS OR 1.43%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.61%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7117 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 60.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.53 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7117 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7193 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

This weekend, China’s manufacturing pMI jumps huge due to the strong stimulus provided by the POBC last month. It ends 5 months of contraction but this stimulus will wear off quite quickly as the world’s global trade growth disintegrates.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Inflection Point: Chinese Mfg PMI Jumps Back Into Expansion After 5 Months In Contraction

In previewing the “green shoots” catalysts to watch for the second quarter after a dismal, for the economy Q1, BofA’s Michael Hartnett listed five key data points which will set the quarterly mood early, and which included US retail sales and manufacturing ISM, South Korean export orders, February German factory orders and, last but not least, China’s manufacturing new orders PMI

Well, overnight we got the last one when China confirmed prior speculation of a rebound in the economy, when the National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s manufacturing PMI rebounded strongly from a contractionary 49.2, and printing at 50.5, its first expansion since September 2018, and beating estimates of a 49.6 reading. The non-manufacturing PMI continued its recent improvement, rising to 54.8, also the best reading since last September, as both the services and construction PMIs strengthened, and resulted in the composite PMI rising to 54.0 from 52.4.

Almost all major sub-indexes imply better growth momentum.

  • While the production index was 3.2% higher at 52.7, the new orders sub-index was 1.0% higher at 51.6, just why of Hartnett’s 52.0 bullish “green shoot” cutoff. The employment sub-index edged up 0.1% to 47.6 from 47.5.
  • More importantly, trade indicators also strengthened – the imports sub-index rose to 48.7 from 44.8, and the new export order went up to 47.1, vs. 45.1 in February. Both trade-related indexes have recovered from the bottom seen in late 2018 and early 2019, but are still below the levels in 2017/early 2018.
  • Inventory indicators also rose with the raw material inventories index 2.1% higher at 48.4, and the finished goods inventory index increased by 0.6pp in March to 47.0 (both indicators remain below their long-term averages).
  • Price indicators continued to climb – the input price index rose by 1.6% to 53.5, and the output price index was 2.9% higher at 51.4. By enterprise type, data suggest manufacturing PMI went up for medium and small-sized manufacturing enterprises in March and declined for large manufacturing enterprises.

Curiously, the improvement in trade indicators took place even as China’s record trade surplus with the US faded in recent months:

The official non-manufacturing PMI (which according to Goldman Sachs estimates is comprised of the service and construction sectors at roughly 80%/20% weightings) also increased to 54.8 in March vs 54.3 in February. Both services and construction PMIs strengthened. The services PMI edged up by 0.1% to 53.6, and the construction PMI increased 2.5% to 61.7.

What prompted the rebound in the PMI? after an unprecedented credit injection earlier in the year, in addition to better underlying growth momentum, higher commodity prices and Chinese New Year holiday seasonality may have contributed to the rebound according to Goldman Sachs which sees a few factors contributing to a higher manufacturing PMI in March:

  1. higher commodity prices rose in March which could add upward bias to the manufacturing PMI readings;
  2. activities resuming after the Chinese New Year holiday could also push up manufacturing PMI in March vs February – in historical years when the Chinese New Year date was similar to this year, March NBS manufacturing PMI rebounded by an average of 1.7% vs February;
  3. underlying growth momentum may have also improved as the previous policy easing started to show its support to overall economic growth.

On the non-manufacturing side, construction PMI was stronger partially due to the Chinese New Year seasonality, and partially also supported by stronger infrastructure investment activities. Services PMI also improved – logistics, transportation and securities industry activities were strong in March, while real estate activities stayed weak. In sum, NBS PMI data suggest better growth in Q1 compared with Q4 last year.

Whatever the reason behind the rebound, much of its has already been priced in with the Shanghai Composite, the year’s best performing major index, posting nearly double the return of the S&P in the first quarter.

More importantly, with China’s PMI now signalling an key inflection point for both the Chinese and global economy, and the early stages of an economic rebound, the Sunday print will likely serve to push Asian stocks sharply higher on the first day of the quarter.

But the biggest implication from the rebound in Chinese data, is what implications it may have on the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, because as the Global Times’ Editor in Chief wrote overnight, the Chinese are now “less worried” about the trade war, as “they feel the US is not as powerful as they had thought and the impact the trade war has on their life is not that big. This will seriously weaken psychological advantage of US side in trade talks.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

One year since the trade war started, the Chinese have been less worried about it. They feel the US is not as powerful as they had thought and the impact the trade war has on their life is not that big. This will seriously weaken psychological advantage of US side in trade talks.

To be sure, the (goalseeked) Chinese data will be used by Beijing as a bargaining chip to make more forceful demands in bilateral trade negotiations, as it can now asset that the worst consequences of the trade war are now in the rearview mirror, and as a result US leverage over China’s economy is now declining.

Powered by Uponit

end

Good reason for gold to being held in check early this morning:  Beijing orders 200 ships to the Spratly Islands and thus provoking a panic in Manila

(courtesy zerohedge)

Beijing Orders 200 Ships To Spratly Islands, Provoking Panic In Manila

What appears to be Beijing’s latest military flex in the South China Sea – the contested collection of shoals and reefs that plays a crucial role in global trade and also contains vast untapped gas reserves – has reportedly set off “alarm bells” in Manila, just as the Philippines and the US were preparing to begin a round of military drills. According to Bloomberg, Philippines personnel have lodged a complaint with a joint Chinese-Flippino commission created to resolve disputes in the regionafter authorities counted a mass of 200 Chinese shipsaround the Thitu, the second-largest island in the Spratly Islands.

Thitu

With a trade deal still in limbo, military tensions in the South China Sea have intensified as the US Navy has stepped up the pace of its “freedom of navigation” operations, while Beijing has stepped up its threatening rhetoric toward Taiwan and carried out more military drills.

A Philippines official said the ships appeared to be part of China’s sea militia. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s spokesman Salvador Panelo said he would meet China’s ambassador and ask for an explanation for the bolstered presence, after the Philippine Foreign Affairs Department lodged its protest with the committee.

Philippines

Per BBG:

Philippine soldiers will continue their patrols in the disputed area, military chief General Benjamin Madrigal Jr. told reporters separately, adding that Chinese fishing vessels have repeatedly been spotted near the island. He urged a panel with representatives from both nations tasked with resolving South China Sea disputes to address Chinese presence in the area.

“This is a concern not only for the military, but for other agencies as well, including the Coast Guard. We are looking for ways to address this,” Madrigal told reporters on the sidelines of opening ceremonies for annual joint military drills between the Philippines and the U.S.

Before Duterte came to power and opted for warmer ties with Beijing, Manila won a case in the ICC validating its claim to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea. However, Beijing has ignored this ruling (and faced zero repercussions for doing so).

However, the ships massing around Thitu (which is known by Pagasa in the Philippines) wasn’t China’s only provocation. Taiwan accused Beijing of sending Navy ships across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, violating a long-held tacit agreement.

外交部 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ROC (Taiwan) 🇹🇼

@MOFA_Taiwan

At 11 a.m., March 31, 2 PLAAF J-11 jets violated the long-held tacit agreement by crossing the median line of the Strait. It was an intentional, reckless & provocative action. We’ve informed regional partners & condemn for such behavior.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

BREXIT/EU//SATURDAY

Theresa May is now planning a 4th vote to bring the Brexit plan (which is a terrible exit plan)

(courtesy zerohedge)

Theresa May Reportedly Planning To Bring Brexit Plan Back For Unprecedented 4th Vote

The withdrawal agreement that Prime Minister Theresa May negotiated with the EU27 is the deal that refuses to die. Despite being thrice rejected by the Commons – two of those defeats by historic margins – the prime minister is reportedly planning to bring the deal – which many declared “dead” on Friday – back for a fourth vote next week, as the European Union hints that it won’t allow another extension of Article 50.

If what would be the fourth vote on the deal fails, May would try calling another general election, even as some members of her own cabinet have reportedly opposed the idea and said she would need to resign before going to the country again. Of course, last time May called a general election in summer of 2017, it didn’t end so well. While May had hoped it would strengthen her hand in talks with Europe, the conservatives ended up losing their majority in the Commons, and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn – once derided as an ineffectual Communist – emerged as a credible threat to the rival Tories.

May

In the hours since her deal was defeated by a margin of 58 votes, which, though not ideal, was a major improvement over the 149-vote margin of defeat from the second vote, unconfirmed rumors about where May’s government might go from here have flooded the British press.

Rumors have included a “runoff” vote between May’s deal and the most popular option from the indicative vote earlier this week (which would be a ‘softer’ deal where the UK stays in the Customs Union), to a general election, to a request for another short-term delay of Article 50. But European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker said the bloc was leaning toward a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

Faced with the imminent prospect of a general election, May and her aides believe more Brexiteers would decide to back her deal, Buzzfeed reports. May hinted at a general vote during remarks after the deal’s defeat.

The prime minister’s aides are preparing to call a fourth vote on her withdrawal agreement following Friday’s 58 vote defeat — the third time it has been rejected by MPs.

Downing Street insiders said this could come either in the form of another so-called “meaningful vote”, or by tabling the Withdrawal Agreement Bill and committing to allowing Parliament to set the negotiating mandate for the next stage of negotiations.

May’s aides are also looking at a “run-off” pitting May’s deal against the most successful alternative plan found at the next round of indicative votes, due on Monday and Wednesday.

A Number 10 official predicted that the alternative option most popular in Parliament would be the withdrawal agreement with a permanent customs union put to a confirmatory referendum.

Posed with a choice between that and May’s deal, it is believed more Brexiteer rebels would switch over to support the government.

Of course, to bring the deal back for a fourth vote, May would need to once again meet Speaker Bercow’s “substantially different” test – his ruling that she can’t bring the deal back unless significant changes are made. On Friday, she accomplished this by separating the withdrawal agreement from the non-binding political statement setting out a framework for the second round of negotiations on future relations between the UK and the block. Exactly how she would do it next week isn’t exactly clear. She could accomplish it by tabling a Withdrawal Agreement bill instead of the “meaningful vote” along with a commitment to allowing Parliament more control over negotiations during the second phase of talks, which would focus on the future relationship.

Furthermore, the prospect of another vote could trigger a mutiny among her MPs, who would likely refuse to support it unless May agrees to step down.

In any event, with the EU hinting that it doesn’t plan on giving any ground during an emergency summit next month, May probably understands at this point that if the deal isn’t passed, over the cliff the UK will go. With thousands of Britons marching on London Friday demanding Brexit, even if the EU would assent to one, another delay might be politically disastrous at home.

As far as BBG can tell, here’s a flow chart sketching out the next steps:

Brexit

END

UK MONDAY

British pound surges ahead of their 2nd indicative vote

(courtesy zerohedge)

Sterling Surges As MPs Prepare For 2nd ‘Indicative Vote’

Tired of the Commons’ interminable bickering and Theresa May’s ineffectual leadership, Brussels warned last week that the UK will ‘likely’ leave Europe without a withdrawal deal on April 12 after the third ‘meaningful vote’ on May’s withdrawal agreement failed by a margin of 58 votes. Though that margin has shrunk considerably since the first two votes, it’s becoming increasingly clear that there’s no way May can pass the deal, even if she does manage to bring it back for a fourth vote ahead of the emergency Brexit summit that begins on April 10.

PM

What’s worse, an ‘indicative vote’ on Brexit alternatives forced by backbencher MPs last week affirmed the Tory leadership’s suspicions that no alternative to May’s deal could garner a majority of support in the Commons, as none of the eight options on the ballot manged to secure a majority of votes (MPs were asked to vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on each listed option).

MPs

Per BBG

Though the indicative vote only further muddied the waters, the Commons is planning to hold another round on Monday, albeit with a slightly different slate of alternatives, as MPs reportedly rally around a ‘softer’ Brexit deal that would call for the UK to remain in the customs union after Brexit Day.

If this, too, fails, the likelihood that May will at least formally call for a general election, an option that she is loathe to consider, will rise. Though most Tories will likely insist that May step down before they support another general vote (last time around, when May called a general election in the summer of 2017, it ended up being perhaps the biggest political miscalculation of her tenure at No. 10).

Even if Monday’s second indicative vote does produce a majority of support for a modified Brexit arrangement, it’s doubtful that the EU would accept it so late in the game. May would likely need to ask for a lengthy Brexit extension – which she may or may not get.

In any event, the pound has rallied on Monday amid reports that at least 40 Tory MPs are preparing to support the customs union alternative, which is also expected to garner support from the opposition.

GBP

Debate begins at 3:30 pm (10:30 am ET), with voting expected to start around 8 pm  (3 pm). Here are the options that Speaker Bercow is expected to select (text courtesy of CNN):

Motion A, Unilateral right of exit from backstop — This proposes that the UK shall leave the European Union on May 22 with the Withdrawal Agreement amended to allow the UK unilaterally to exit the Northern Ireland backstop.

Motion B, No deal in the absence of a Withdrawal Agreement — This alternative calls for support from MPs for a no-deal Brexit if the House has not backed May’s Withdrawal Agreement.

Motion C, Customs Union — This motion calls on the Government to ensure that the Brexit plan includes a permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU.

Motion D, Common Market 2.0 – This proposal wants the Political Declaration – which covers the future relationship between the UK and the EU – to be renegotiated so that the UK joins the European Free Trade Association, through which is retains its membership of the European Economic Area, or Single Market. The UK would also seek to negotiate a “comprehensive customs arrangement” with the EU.

Motion E, Confirmatory public vote – Parliament would not be allowed to ratify any Brexit deal until it has been confirmed by a public poll.

Motion F, Public vote to prevent no deal — Calls for a second referendum on exiting the European Union, if a no-deal scenario appears likely.

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/SATURDAY

Tom Luongo zeros in on one country that will no doubt provide global contagion when it fails…the country is Turkey and this is a must read..

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Is Turkey “City Zero” In Global Contagion

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Last year Turkey’s lira crisis quickly morphed into a Euro-zone crisis as Italian bond yields blew higher and the euro quickly reversed off a major Q1 high near $1.25.

It nearly sparked a global emerging market meltdown and subsequent melt-up in the dollar.

This week President Erdogan of Turkey banned international short-selling of the Turkish lira in response to the Federal Reserve’s complete reversal of monetary policy from its last rate hike in December.

The markets responded to the Fed with a swift and deepening of the U.S. yield curve inversion. Dollar illiquidity is unfolding right in front of our eyes. (HARVEY: DEADLY TO TURKEY AS THEY NEED DOLLARS TO FUND THE COUNTRY)

Turkish credit spreads, CDS rates and Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves all were put under massive pressure. Unprecedented moves in were seen as the need for dollars has seized up the short end of the U.S. paper market.

Martin Armstrong talked about this yesterday:

The government [Turkey] simply trapped investors and refuses to allow transactions out of the Turkish lira. Turkey’s stand-off with investors has unnerved traders globally, pushing the world ever closer to a major FINANCIAL PANIC come this May 2019.

There is a major liquidity crisis brewing that could pop in May 2019.

Martin’s timing models all point to May as a major turning point. And the most obvious thing occurring in May is the European Parliamentary elections which should see Euroskeptics take between 30% and 35% of seats, depending on whether Britain stands for EU elections or not.

That depends on Parliament and the EU agreeing to a longer extension of Brexit in the next two weeks.

Parliament has created “Schroedinger’s Brexit,” neither alive nor dead but definitely bottled up in a box no one dares open. And they want to keep it that way for as long as possible. Their hope is outlasting Leavers into accepting staying in the gods-forsaken fiscal and political black hole that is the European Union.

But back to Turkey. To me this looks like a very dangerous game that Erdogan is playing with the markets to remind everyone just how fragile the financial system is. Now that a real Brexit is back on the table thanks to the British Parliament, his gambit takes on even more significance.

I don’t credit Erdogan with understanding this complexity anymore than I credit most Remainer MP’s understanding the true stakes of defying Brexit.

If he did he wouldn’t lift this foreign investor trap until Jean-Claude Juncker drank himself to death after a Hitlerian tirade of memetic proportions.

Juncker after Merkel’s Deal Failed a Third Time

That’s the problem with politicians. Their own narrow interest has out-sized effects on the rest of the world because of the power they wield.

The core problem is that Turkey’s companies owe an enormous sum in corporate debt that is payable in dollarsWhat Erdogan has done is prioritize lira for them to pay their dollar obligations while barring anyone else from attacking the lira at the same time.

This morning at Money and Markets I talked why this is happening:

I don’t know for sure what’s happening here but I do know that the U.S. is playing hardball on anyone who is maintaining any economic ties to Iran,criticizing Israel and/or backing President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela while we try and regime change him.

Turkey is doing all three of these things. And the combination of U.S. anger at Turkey’s sliding into the BRICS orbit, Turkey’s indebtedness and EU contagion risk creates a potentially explosive situation in credit and currency markets that Armstrong is now warning could become ground zero for the next financial crisis.

Erdogan’s proxy weapon in this fight is zombie banks in Europe. And not just any banks, some of the biggest banks in Europe. Zerohedge put out the list of the five European banks most exposed to Turkey according to Goldman Sachs.

With that disclaimer in mind, Goldman claims that Turkey exposure of EU banks is “limited in scope and scale” as Turkey accounted for <1% of total EAD and c.1% of Net Profit for Goldman’s EU banks coverage in 2018: of more 50 banks under Goldman coverage, five have Turkey exposure of >1% of total EAD, with gross exposure ranging from 10% of EAD for BBVA, 5% for Unicredit to 2% or less for ING (2%), BNP (2%) and ISP (1%). Also worth noting that European banks tend not to have 100% ownership of Turkish subsidiaries, so one needs to adjust for the actual shareholding.

The biggest banks in Italy, France and the Netherlands have multi-billion dollar exposure to a default on Turkish corporate debt.

Erdogan is staring at a major push-back from the U.S. and the EU over cozying up to Russia and it will not stop until he is removed from power.

As all of these interdependent systems, unintended consequences and perverse incentives have brought us to a very precarious moment in time.

Unspoken during all of the Brexit talk is the potential for real dislocation in the financial markets if the divorce is finalized to Brexiteer’s satisfaction. But the costs will be born hardest not on the working class but the financial and political class.

This is what is behind Project Fear and the slow motion betrayal of the Brexit Referendum of 2016. It is not the temporary inconvenience of having to pay 3% more for Italian wines or an extra ten minutes in line to take a holiday in France for the middle-class Briton Remainers who marched on London last weekend.

It is The Davos Crowd and their quislings in the British Civil Service and Brussels Byzantine Bureaucracy are the ones with trillions in assets at risk.

It is the British Deep State, so committed to the EU it helped back a coup against the President of the U.S. framing him as a Russian stooge straight out of a John LeCarre novel.

The mandarins who run the EU see their political project at risk. Turkey was a country slated to be subsumed by the murk of the EU.

And Erdogan put the kibosh on that after his country was nearly destroyed by U.S. incompetence in atomizing Syria. He has now emerged as a key political opponent of Brussels, as important as Viktor Orban in Hungary, Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio in Italy or Vladimir Putin in Russia.

So it should come as no surprise that Turkey is emerging as the emerging market that comes under currency duress during this period of great uncertainty about the EU’s future.

Markets are finally taking these threats much more seriously now than they did last year. I told you then Turkey would survive. Qatar, China and Russia all came to Erdogan’s side to help Turkey through the shock.

But it was only a test of his resolve. It was a crucible to see if he could be brought back on side. And once Pastor Andrew Brunson was returned, the pressure on the lira mysteriously subsided.

But it’s clear with the way things have gone in Syria and with his opposition to Israel’s decisions recently that Erdogan is not redeemable as a NATO asset anymore. And the only reason Turkey hasn’t been kicked out of NATO is because treaties outlast leaders.

That’s why Brussels wants this Brexit deal and none other. It is a treaty which ensures the U.K. as a vassal state in perpetuity.

The U.S. equity markets just ended Q1 with the S&P 500’s highest closing quarterly price in history. The Dow Jones Industrials rallied to close just shy of 26,000. U.S. Treasuries are trading below the Fed’s benchmark rate throughout most of the yield curve.

And gold is holding onto $1300 despite furious selling above $1325 as traders scramble for dollars.

Since the equity markets peaked near the end of Q3 of last year, more than $5 trillion in debt globally has been pushed to negative yields as of Monday.

The number is now near a record $10 trillion.

The German yield curve is negative out to 10 years.

The sound you hear is the air leaving the room as the world wakes up to the fact that no one in charge has any clue as to how to fix any of the messes they have created.

The mad scramble for collateral has begun. And the zombie plague may have been unleashed in Istanbul.

*  *  *

Chaos Erupts After Erdogan Loses Capital In Local Elections, Both Parties Claim Istanbul Victory

Update 2:  Chaos erupted late on Sunday when Erdogan’s ruling AKP party was looking certain to lose control of the capital, Ankara, while both AKP and the opposition CHP party claimed victory in Istanbul in the culmination of a critical municipal vote that is testing the popularity of President Erdogan.

As reported by various news wires, preliminary results showed the opposition flipping the capital Ankara and surrounding areas from Erdogan’s alliance, and taking control of some of Turkey’s key Mediterranean coastal cities. In a stunning (or perhaps not, after all this is Turkey) to what appears to be an extreme close vote, even before the final figures were announced, Erdogan’s ally and former prime minister Binali Yildirim said he won the race in Istanbul, Turkey’s commercial hub, a claim rejected by the opposition, which said it won.

  • TURKEY’S BINALI YILDIRIM SAYS HE WON THE RACE IN ISTANBUL
  • TURKEY OPPOSITION’S KILICDAROGLU SAYS WON IN ISTANBUL

When Yildirim declared victory, the state-run news agency reported a margin of less than 0.1 percentage point between him and his main rival Ekrem Imamoglu. That means that out of some 10 million ballots cast in the city, the difference was about 5,000 votes according to Bloomberg. Adding to the confusion, and calls that Erdogan has stolen the election, when Yildirim spoke, the state-run news agency showed 98.8 percent of votes tallied, and then stopped reporting updated results for Istanbul after he declared victory. The opposition candidate said the result was manipulated and the party’s leader also claimed victory in televised remarks.

 

Contrary to expectations for an imminent rout now that elections are out of the way, the Turkish lira was little changed at least in early trading after midnight in Istanbul, although the highly volatile currency is expected to move substantially in the next few hours.

“Turkey’s regime now signals that it won’t give up Istanbul, regardless of vote distribution,” Timur Kuran, professor of economics and political science at Duke University, said on Twitter. It’s the “clearest sign yet that Team Erdogan knows it actually lost Turkey’s biggest city.”

Despite losing Ankara and perhaps Istanbul, Erdogan’s support at the national level was solid, with Erdogan’s AK Party-led alliance receiving 51.7% of the national vote, with 91% of the ballot boxes opened, state-run Anadolu Agency reported. The opposing camp led by the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, had 37.6% while the pro-Kurdish HDP, which is sitting out the races outsides its stronghold in Turkey’s eastern regions, garnered 4%.

Despite the majority vote for Erdogan’s AKP, the opposition claims that shrinking support for Erdogan would mark the beginning of the end of his 16-year rule. The Turkish leader was sworn in with almost untrammeled powers after last year’s general elections that followed a 2017 constitutional amendment to change Turkey’s political framework into an executive presidency from a parliamentary system.

* * *

Update 1: it appears that things are back to normal in Turkey, where despite polls showing a possible loss for AKP candidates in Istanbul and Ankara, Erdogan’s ruling party is said to be on top, and according to Turkish NTV broadcaster, the AKP candidates were leading mayoral elections in Turkey’s two main cities after about one quarter of ballots had been opened.

It said the AKP candidate in Istanbul, the country’s largest city, had 51.8 percent with 24.4 percent of ballot boxes opened. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate had 45.8 percent. The AKP was also leading in the capital Ankara with 51.6 percent of votes after 22.5 percent of ballots were opened, NTV said.

* * *

The moment of truth for Turkey’s executive president and currency manipulator-in-chief has arrived.

Turks are voting on Sunday in local elections which President Tayyip Erdogan has described as a matter of survival for Turkey and which were marred by lethal violence that left two party members dead in the country’s southeast.

While Erdogan, who last June won a presidential election which further cemented his rule by gaining executive powers, has become the country’s most popular, yet also most divisive, modern leader, he could be dealt an electoral blow with polls indicating his ruling AK Party (AKP) may lose control of the capital Ankara, and even Istanbul, the country’s largest city according to Reuters.

 

Erdogan exits a polling station during the municipal elections in Istanbul, Turkey, March 31

And with the stagflating economy in a deep recession following a currency crisis last year which saw the lira lose more than 30% of its value, some voters appeared ready to punish Erdogan, who has ruled with an increasingly uncompromising stance.

“I was actually not going to vote today, but when I saw how much they (AKP) were flailing, I thought this might be time to land them a blow. Everyone is unhappy. Everyone is struggling,” said 47-year-old Hakan after voting in Ankara.

The polling stations closed at 4 p.m. local time in eastern Turkey and an hour later in the rest of the country. While early indications from preliminary vote counts were expected two or three hours after voting closed, though a clear picture would take longer especially if the voting process is rigged, as some have warned may happen.

Ahead of the election, the lira once again tumbled forcing the central bank to briefly hike the overnight swap rate to a ludicrous 1300% and force a short squeeze; however with the elections now over, many expect the currency’s free fall will resume apace as Turkey’s economic woes and runaway inflation are only getting worse. Last week Erdogan blamed the country’s economic woes on attacks by the West, saying Turkey would overcome its troubles and adding he was “the boss” of the economy.

“The aim behind the increasing attacks towards our country ahead of the elections is to block the road of the big, strong Turkey,” Erdogan told a rally in Istanbul on Saturday.

Sunday’s elections, in which Turks vote for mayors and other local officials across the country, are the first since Erdogan assumed sweeping presidential powers last year and will be a reckoning for his government, which has come under fire for its economic policies and record on human rights.

Meanwhile, as on prior elections, Sunday’s vote was marred by violence in the southeast and Istanbul where two members of the small Islamist Felicity Party, a polling station official and an election observer, were shot dead in Malatya province, a party spokesman said. Media reports said one person had been detained. After voting in Istanbul, Erdogan said he was saddened by the incident and that it was being thoroughly investigated. Some 553,000 police and security force members were on duty for the vote nationwide.

Elsewhere, two people were hurt in the town of Diyarbakir, after being stabbed in a dispute between candidates, a hospital source told Reuters, while dozens of people were hurt in other election-related clashes in the southeast.

One person was stabbed as 15 people clashed in a row between candidates in Istanbul’s Kadikoy district, a police source said.

* * *

With all eyes now on the results, defeat in Ankara or Istanbul would end nearly a quarter of a century of rule by Erdogan’s AKP or its predecessors in Turkeys’ two most important cities and deal a symbolic blow to Turkey’s leader; it is unclear if such a result would prompt Erdogan to become less confrontational or seek to further tighten his grasp on control.

Ahead of the vote, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Iyi (Good) Party formed an electoral alliance to rival that of the AKP and its nationalist MHP partners. The pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples Democratic Party (HDP), which Erdogan has accused of links to Kurdish militants, is not fielding candidates for mayor in Istanbul or Ankara, which is likely to benefit the CHP.

“Before, this city did not have the services I have now seen. I gave my vote to the AK Party for services to continue,” said tradesman Haci Ahmet Beyaz, 43.

In typical fashion, in the days leading up to the vote Erdogan held over 100 rallies across the country and blasted his rivals as terrorist supporters and warned that if the opposition candidate wins in Ankara, residents would “pay a price”. His opponents have denied the accusations and challenged his characterisation of the elections as a matter of survival.

“We’re electing mayors. What does this have to do with the country’s survival?” Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of the CHP, told a rally in Eskisehir.

We will bring you the election results as soon as they are released.

As promised, the USA is halting the F 35 shipments to Turkey over their purchase of that Russian S 400 missile system.  This will infuriate Turkey more than ever as they will now completely turn towards Russia.  Actually they will need to do this as they are running out of dollars.  Next move in this chess game will be China and how they will try and rescue Turkey along with Russia
(courtesy zerohedge)

US Halts F-35 Shipment To Turkey In Rift Over Russian S-400 Missile System

Last Friday we reported that Turkey slammed the door on Washington’s demands that it cancel its S-400 contract with Moscow in the wake of continued US threats that it will deny transfer of F-35s to Turkey over the Erdogan government’s plans to move forward with taking delivery of the advanced Russian anti-air defense system in July.

This took place one day after four US senators introduced a bipartisan bill last Thursday to prohibit the transfer of the F-35 until the US can certify that Ankara will reject the S-400 deal. But Turkish officials reiterated their prior stance that it’s a “done deal” and that Turkey won’t back down.

“We have signed a deal with Russia, and this deal is valid. Now we are discussing the delivery process,” Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Friday during a press conference while standing beside his Russian counterpart. He added that “We have an agreement with Russia and we are bound by it.” Confirming Turkey is set to take delivery from the Russians in July of this year, Cavusoglu added that every aspect of Turkish defense purchases were legitimate and in accord with international law.

The foreign minister also noted that Ankara has met its obligations to Lockheed Martin, producer of the F-35 stealth fighter. “Turkey is also a partner in the F-35 project. Some parts are being made in here in Turkey. Turkey has fulfilled its responsibilities in this regard,” the minister said.

* * *

Fast forward to today when, with Erdogan still smarting from one of his biggest electoral losses in decades in local elections which saw the ruling AKP lose control over the capital Ankara and, most likely, Istanbul as well, Reuters reports that the US has followed through with its threat, and halted delivery of equipment related to the stealthy F-35 fighter aircraft to the Nato ally, “marking the first concrete U.S. step to block delivery of the jet to the NATO ally in light of Ankara’s planned purchase of a Russian missile defense system.”

According to the Reuters sources, U.S. officials told their Turkish counterparts they will not receive further shipments of F-35 related equipment needed to prepare for the arrival of the stealthy jet. The sources also said the next shipment of training equipment, and all subsequent shipments of F-35 related material, have been canceled.

 

A real-size mock of F-35 fighter jet is displayed at Japan International Aerospace Exhibition in Tokyo. Photo source: Reuters

As Reuters notes, “the disagreement over the F-35 is the latest of a series of diplomatic disputes between the United States and Turkey including Turkish demands that the United States extradite Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, differences over Middle East policy and the war in Syria, and sanctions on Iran.”

In March, a Pentagon official said that the United States had a number of items it could withhold in order to send Turkey a signal that the United States was serious about Ankara dropping its ambition to own the S-400: the F-35 was one of them.

Predictably, the U.S. decision on the F-35s will likely complicate Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s planned visit to Washington this week for a NATO summit.

In parallel, Washington is also exploring whether it can remove Turkey from production of the F-35. Turkey makes parts of the fuselage, landing gear and cockpit displays. Sources familiar with the F-35’s intricate worldwide production process and U.S. thinking on the issue last week said Turkey’s role can be replaced.

The United States and other NATO allies that own F-35s fear the radar on the Russian S-400 missile system will learn how to spot and track the jet, making it less able to evade Russian weapons in the future.

In an attempt to persuade Erdogan to drop its plans to buy the S-400, the United States offered the pricier American-made Patriot anti-missile system in a discounted deal that expired at the end of March. And while Turkey had shown interest in the Patriot system, it would not do so at the expense of abandoning the S-400 and extending Russia’s strategic ties with Turkey.

Meanwhile, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar in March said that despite the escalating diplomatic scandal, Turkish pilots were continuing their training at an air base in Arizona on the F-35, each of which costs $90 million, and that Ankara was expecting the aircraft to arrive in Turkey in November.

Last summer, a diplomatic rout between the US and Turkey led to a series of temporary sanctions which resulted in a collapse in bilateral relations between the two nations and culminated with Turkey’s economy sliding into recession, soaring prices and a collapse in the lira. Whether that painful episode repeats itself will depend on just how vocal Erdogan’s reaction will be when he learns that the the US has halted the F-35 shipment. Considering that the Turkish “executive” president is now scrambling to boost his popularity in the aftermath of the local elections, it is more than likely that the posture adopted by Erdogan will be aggressive to very aggressive, especially if he feels he has Putin’s backing.

What a riot, the comedian who portrays Poroshenko on TV crushes him in the Ukrainian Presidential elections
(courtesy zerohedge)

Comedian Crushes Ukrainian Presidential Contenders In Exit Polls

A popular comedian seen as “soft” on Russia and who said he would actually sit down with Vladimir Putin to talk peace looks to upset Ukrainian politics, as he’s significantly leading in exit polls during Sunday’s presidential elections in Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who incidentally played the president on TV as part of his comedy career has according to exit polls cited by the BBC received 30.4% of the vote, with current president Petro Poroshenko second with 17.8%.

 

Ukrainian comedian and presidential candidate Volodymyr Zelensky, via Pacifica Press.

“I’m very happy but this is not the final result,” Zelenskiy told the BBC moments after after the exit polls were announced, while incumbent Poroshenko, who has led Ukraine since the February 2014 Maidan conflict that toppled former pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, described the forecast of his defeat as a “harsh lesson”.

Though there have been reports of election violations, President Poroshenko acknowledged Sunday’s presidential election as “free” and having legitimately “met international standards,” according to Reuters. The country of 44 million is choosing from a packed field of 39 presidential candidates; however Zlelenksy — already very familiar to much of the population through TV — has consistently polled as the front runner.

Ukraine’s president will be determined during the April 21 run-off, where Zelensky is projected to beat both Poroshenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The 41-year-old Zelensky is as pro-EU as much of the rest of the field, but has kept things deliberately light, presenting himself as part-politician, part satirical comic, who has done little to campaign beyond presenting himself as a “common sense” citizen.

Interestingly, his willingness to speak both Ukrainian and Russian in public forums has made him popular in the Russian-speaking east of the country, according to the BBC, which further reports:

Mr Zelenskiy is aiming to turn his satirical TV show Servant of the People – in which he portrays an ordinary citizen who becomes president after fighting corruption – into reality.

He has torn up the rulebook for election campaigning, staging no rallies and few interviews, and appears to have no strong political views apart from a wish to be new and different.

His extensive use of social media appealed to younger voters.

It could be Ukrainians are ready for a general calming of tensions over and against Poroshenko’s tough anti-Russian and pro-nationalist talk of “Army, Language, Faith” — and amid his corruption allegations and a recent scandal involving defense procurement.

Alec Luhn

@ASLuhn

Exit polling suggests Zelenskiy will face president Poroshenko in the 2nd round on April 21. Poroshenko will try to make the newcomer look stupid in TV debates, Zelenskiy will harp on the president’s wealth & corruption scandals. @RFERL

Electing a comedian and political satirist certainly represents broad disillusionment with Ukraine’s political elite, which have overseen years of intermittent regional conflict and a stagnant economy. Zelenskiy is seen as a more familiar “common man” and political outsider with no experience, compared to chocolate magnate Poroshenko, who is among Ukrainian’s wealthiest people.

Zelenskiy said on Sunday just after casting his ballot in Kiev “A new life, a normal life is starting.” He added his hope for a new political landscape marked by “a life without corruption, without bribes.”

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

Interesting:  according to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic policy (CPB) world trade plunged to its weakest levels since 2009

(courtsy zerohedge)

Global Trade Takes Sharp Turn With Biggest Drop Since 2009

According to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), world trade plunged to its weakest levels not seen since the financial crisis.

The report published last week shows world trade expanded by 2.3% in January after the index tumbled in 4Q18. The recent rebound was broad-based with the strongest seen in emerging markets Asia (+6.2%), which followed a decline of -6.5% in December.

The three-month global trade momentum shows a downward trend of -1.8%, indicating economic growth across the world continues to slide into 2Q. Bloomberg said, “that’s the biggest drop since May 2009.” On a y/y basis, global trade posted its first decline in nearly nine years in the three months.

The global 1H19 outlook remains in a cyclical downturn, which could hinder world trade further. The epicenter of the slowdown originates in China, which is partly due to a combination of China’s growth supercycle coming to an end, developed world economies slowing, Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, and the US-China trade war that disrupted supply chains in Asia. This has global consequences:

” For example, eurozone manufacturing PMI weakened to 47.6 in March according to Markit, marking the second consecutive month this year that manufacturing activity and export orders declined in the eurozone. The indices for January and February indicate contracting manufacturing activity in most of the east-Asian economies as well,” said ING.

Transitioning into the 2Q, significant downside dangers are developing. Trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing have been a no deal trade situation at every meeting. With a no deal expected at the upcoming meeting this week, trade talks could go into several more rounds before an agreement is hammered out.

If a no deal scenario plays out in 2Q, a further escalation in tariffs or just the lack of removing the duties could spark another growth fear and a repricing event of financial assets, similar to late last year.

Another concern is the standoff between President Donald Trump and Europe on auto tariffs. If Washington and Brussels cannot come to a resolution in the next several months, U.S. tariffs on European automobile imports would crush global trade further.

Uncertainties around NAFTA  countries remain, Canada and Mexico are still unsure if they are exempt from these tariffs.

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

Well that did not last long;  Venezuela plunges into darkness again over the weekend

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Return To Middle Ages”: Venezuela Again Plunged Into Darkness, Red Cross Mobilizes

Ahead of broad opposition protests planned for Saturday, Caracas and other large cities across Venezuela were once again plunged into darkness Friday evening, just as the country struggled to fully recover from prior days-long outages.

The latest blackout began just after 7:00pm, leaving most of the capital as well as Valencia, Maracay, San Cristobal and Maracaibo without electricity, again crippling the country’s transport, communication, water, and hospital infrastructures.

 

A new blackout hit Caracas and other cities Friday evening, via the AP.

Reports this week have described the recent spate of mass outages as taking the already ailing and largely neglected infrastructure back to the Middle Ages, with descriptions of rotting and souring food on supermarket shelves, citizens making oil lamps, and Caracas residents washing dishes in nearby El Avila mountain streams due to lack of electricity to the city’s water pumps.

Venezuelans have also had to traverse long distances on foot to get to work, or complete simple tasks like retrieving food and supplies.

Sotiri Dimpinoudis ❁‏@sotiridi

Sad days for Venezuelans every day! Their infrastructure has never been repaired for decades now it all crumbles down…

CNW@ConflictsW

Caracas metro train broke down forcing users to walk along the tracks #Venezuela #Caracas

Embedded video

This weekend’s outage marks the fourth power outage this month, which began on March 7. In response to the earlier outages, Venezuela’s Defense Ministry vowed to deploy armed forces to protect the national electricity system.

President Nicolás Maduro blamed Washington for the earlier outages, claiming over Twitter that the Trump administration was engaged in an “electrical war” which was “announced and directed by American imperialism against our people.”

Walking for hours, making oil lamps, bearing water. For Venezuelans today, suffering under a new nationwide blackout that has lasted days, it’s like being thrown back to life centuries ago— AFP

The US has repeatedly denied the charge while taking increasingly bolder steps to attempt to legitimize self-declared “Interim President” Juan Guaido. Simultaneously Maduro has stripped Guaido of public office, barring him for 15 years.

Previously, Communications Minister Jorge Rodriguez blamed the last blackout on “an attack on the charging and transmission centre” at the Guri dam, which crucially supplies the country of 30 million with 80 percent of the power.

NetBlocks.org

@netblocks

Urgent: Major new power outage registered across at 11:10 PM UTC (7:10 PM VET); network data shows national connectivity now at just 10% ⬇️https://netblocks.org/reports/connectivity-across-venezuela-drops-following-new-national-power-outage-gdAmbvB9 

According to early unconfirmed reports, this latest blackout appears also the result of hydroelectric water generators inside the Guri power plant failing. 

Likely the newest blackout will fuel and exacerbate the intensity of anti-Maduro protests through the weekend.

 

AFP: A man carries drums with water he collected from a stream at the Wuaraira Repano mountain, also called El Avila, in Caracas.

Perhaps sensitive to the growing anger and frustration of Venezuelans even among Maduro supporters, Rodriguez had previously boasted of the government’s ability to bring things back online: “What (last time) took days, now has been taken care of in just a few hours,” Rodriguez said, saying the last fix had been made in “record time”.

Meanwhile, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies have announced that they will have unhindered access to bring aid into the increasingly desperate and struggling country, set to begin in April.

Red Cross officials plan to begin delivering aid to “650,000 people within 20 days” something which both sides, Maduro and Guaido supporters — are claiming as a victory.

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1230 UP .0014 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  GREEN 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.98  UP .158 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3107    UP   0.0004  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3351 DOWN .0012 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 14 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1231 Last night Shanghai composite closed UP 79.60 POINTS OR 2.58%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 510.66  POINTS OR 1.76% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.61%// EUROPEAN BOURSES  GREEN/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED UP 302.02 POINTS OR 1.43%  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 510.66 POINTS OR 1.76%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 79.60 POINTS OR 2.58% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.61%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 302.02 POINTS OR 1.43% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1289.80

silver:$15.07

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.44% !!! UP 4 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.85 UP 4  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.11 DOWN 17 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.28%  UP 32  in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.07%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.14% UP 4   IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.51 UP  3    POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 139 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES  TO –.07%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.54% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1256 DOWN    .0002 or  2 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.26 UP 0.441 OR YEN DOWN 10 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3140 UP .01123( POUND UP 112  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 2 basis points to 1.3343

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7115    0N SHORE  (UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7178  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4666

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.07%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 7 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.48 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2,88 UP 5  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.22 DOWN 6 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 38,19  0.57%

German Dax : UP 155.95 POINTS OR 1.35%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 55.00 POINTS OR  1.03%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 101.40 POINTS OR  1.10%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 234.12 POINTS OR 1.10%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 61.07 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 68.69 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.43  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.24 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 24 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.07 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  61.68

 

 

BRENT :  67.61

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.50… STILL DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.89..STILL DEADLY

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1209 ( DOWN 7   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.37 UP .546 (YEN DOWN 55 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.25 DOWN  3 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3115  UP 88 POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.4918

the Russian rouble 65.17   UP .49 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 49 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3313  UP 33 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7115  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7202  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.07%

 

The Dow closed UP 329.74 POINTS OR 1.27%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 99.59POINTS OR 1.29%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.44 CLOSED DOWN .27 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.599%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.591

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

China “Green Shoots” Spark Global Optimism Despite US Retail Apocalyft

China’s manufacturing PMI surged overnight back above 50, “proving” that all that stimulus hype has finally fixed the Chinese economy – sparking stock and commodity buying worldwide as a reflation-fest sent bond yields reeling higher.

There’s just one thing… we’ve seen these PMI ‘green shoots’ a few times before in the last decade…

But never mind that – US stocks soared (despite a big disappointment in US retail sales) mean ‘everything is awesome’ again…

Chinese stocks surged on the ‘green shoot’ – with ChiNext up 4%!!

As a reminder – foreign investors bought the most China stocks since December on Friday…

Despite a wall of disappointing PMIs across Europe, European stocks were panic bid at the open thanks to China optimism (UK’s FTSE lagged)

 

US equity futures show the opening panic bid drifted through the EU session then the algos stepped into lift it across the US day session…

 

Trannies were the day’s big winner – up a shocking 2.5%…

 

Busting above the 200DMA… (5th up day in a row)

 

 

The S&P took out the pre-Fed highs back to the Oct 10th plunge levels…

 

Remember The Dow has not fallen in April since 2005, and April seasonality for US Equities is a powerful phenomenon: April has posted the best avg monthly return for the S&P over the past 30 years (+1.64%) and actually posts the second-highest % hit-rate of “positive return instances” of any month over the past 90 years

There’s just one thing – VIX wasn’t playing along at all!!

 

 

So much for 20x oversubscribed! LYFT crashed back below its IP Price…

 

Grocers got hit on AMZN headlines…

 

US Treasury yields exploded higher today as the US Manufacturing ISM beat (after an initial kneejerk on the China data)…

 

Today was the biggest 10Y yield spike since Jan 4th’s big rebound from the Dec lows

NOTE – the pattern of yields pikes at the start of each month.

 

The 3m10Y curve has surged back from inversion…

 

The market’s expectations of Fed dovishness have hawkishly surged in the last three days…

 

The dollar ended the day unchanged, finding support overnight at around 97.00 figure once again…

 

Cryptos were mixed with Bitcoin back above $4100 but Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin lower…

 

Copper and Crude jumped as China’s data hit but copper did not follow through at all…

 

WTI Crude kneejerked on Saudi production and then the liftathon algos took over…

 

Gold futures managed to scramble back above $1300 early on but then someone decided to puke over a billion notional paper gold into the market

 

But if China is so awesome for the global economy, why didn’t copper rally?

And if oil is such a great signal of global growth, why aren’t inflation expectations following through?

Finally, we note that the last 24 hours have seen Aussie PMI plunged, Japan’s Tankan disappointed, South Korean exports disappointed (-8.2% YoY), German manufacturing massacre, French PMI miss, Italian new car registrations collapsed, EU inflation weak, US retail sales unexpectedly tumbled… but fuck yeah – we will focus on China’s PMI!

end

MARKET TRADING/ LATE MORNING TRADING

 

end

ii)Market data/

The all important retail sales..a strong component of GDP tumbles in February, dropping .2% month over month instead of rebounding to a .2% rise

(courtesy zerohedge)

Retail Sales Unexpectedly Tumble In February – Larry Kudlow Was Wrong

After January’s much-heralded rebounded from December’s “well it can’t be real” plunge, retail sales were expected to continue the rebound in February (albeit at a slower pace) but they did not – disappointing gravely.

Against expectations of a 0.2% rise, headline retail sales dropped 0.2% MoM in February (exaggerated by strong upward revisions) and core retail sales (ex-auto and gas) tumbled 0.6% MoM…

Sales in the “control group” subset, which some analysts view as a cleaner gauge of underlying consumer demand, also fell 0.2%, missing estimates for a gain, after an upwardly revised 1.7% increase in the prior month. The measure excludes food services, car dealers, building-materials stores and gasoline stations.

On a year-over-year basis, retail sales growth slowed to +2.2%…

Seven of 13 major retail categories showed declines led by Building Materials & Garden Equipment plunging 4.4% – the biggest drop since 2012… (additionally, receipts at electronics and appliance stores fell 1.3 percent, the most since May 2017).

As Bloomberg notes, the report suggests consumer spending will be limited as a growth driver in the first quarter, with pressure points also including smaller-than-expected tax refunds and global economic weakness that may be weighing on jobs. At the same time, rising wages, a stock-market rally and steady interest rates are likely to be pillars for consumption in coming months.

But, but, but… White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Friday that the “underlying economy” isn’t slowing.

end

What a joke: two firms offer two polar opposite views on the USA economy and this has been going on for years. Put your money on the ISM data which continues to show a faltering economy

(courtesy zerohedge)

Take Your Pick: ISM/PMI See US Economy Rebounding/Slumping

A far cry from this weekend’s optimism unleashed by the latest Chinese manufacturing survey, the US Markit manufacturing PMI for March showed another month of slowdown, with the index dropping to 52.4 vs its flash reading of 52.5, down from 53.0 in February and well below the 55.6 reported a year ago. This was the lowest print since the June 2017, the result of “softer increases in output and new orders.”

According to Markit, the moderate improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector was notably softer than the trend seen for 2018, while the first quarter average of 2019 was the lowest since the third quarter of 2017.

A key factor behind the lower headline figure was a slower rise in output. The rate of expansion eased to a marginal pace that was the weakest since June 2016 and below the series trend. Panellists stated that the slower increase in production was due to softer underlying client demand. Similarly, new business growth eased in March. At the same time, new export orders rose at only a marginal rate that was the weakest for five months, with firms noting that global trade tensions and the ongoing impact of tariffs had dampened foreign client demand.

More ominously, on the price front input price inflation softened further to the slowest since August 2017. Where a rise in costs  was reported, goods producers linked this to higher raw material prices, stemming from the ongoing impact of tariffs and greater demand for inputs. The increase was partly passed on to clients through higher output charges. The rise in factory gate prices was nevertheless the slowest since December 2017.

There was a silver lining: as in the broader economy, the rate of job creation remained solid despite broadly unchanged levels of outstanding business. Meanwhile, cost pressures eased further as the rate of input price inflation softened for the fifth successive month. Output charges also rose at a slower pace.

Commenting on the data, Markit Chief economist Chris Williamson said that “a futher deterioraton in the manufacturing PMI suggests the factory sector is acting as an increasing drag on the US economy. The March survey is consistent with production falling at a quarterly rate of 0.6% according to historical comparisons with official data.”

“… things may well get worse before they get better, as the forward-looking indicators are a cause for concern. New order growth has fallen close to the lows seen in the 2016 slowdown, often linked to disappointing exports, tariffs and signs of increasing caution among customers. The ratio of new orders to existing inventory has meanwhile fallen to its lowest since June 2017, suggesting the production trend may weaken further in April.”

And since it would be frowned upon if the US posted another disappointing manufacturing print, it was all up to the Manufacturing ISM to restore confidence that just like China the US is rebounding, which is precisely what happened when the Institute for Supply Management reported that the March ISM jumped from a one year low of 54.2 to 55.3, beating expectations of a 54.5 number, and the highest since January.

In stark contrast from the dour PMI report, the ISM notes that “comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, supported by gains in new orders and employment. Demand expansion continued, with the New Orders Index returning to the high 50s, the Customers’ Inventories Index improving but remaining too low, and the Backlog of Orders Index softening to marginal expansion levels. Consumption (production and employment) continued to expand and regained its footing with a combined 6.2-percentage point gain from the previous month’s levels, recovering most of February’s loss.”

Of note, exports orders continued to expand, while prices reversed two months of contraction by returning to a robust mid-50s level. The manufacturing sector continues to expand, demonstrated by improvements in the PMI® three-month rolling average, which is consistent with overall manufacturing growth projections,” says Fiore

In short: while PMI showed continued deterioration in manufacturing sentiment, the ISM saved the “recovery narrative” with its own, and far more optimistic take on the US manufacturing sector.

The full breakdown showed a rebound in most metrics, with Prices most notably rising back into expansion, up 4.9 points to 54.3.

A few hot takes from the ISM respondents:

  • “Customer orders remain strong.” (Textile Mills)
  • “The electronics industry seems to be slowly coming out of crisis mode. Lead times and costs have leveled out in some commodities, and dynamic random access memory (DRAM) prices are actually coming down.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Brexit continues to be a concern, despite the fact that our organization has already rolled out a plan to minimize its impact.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Business remains very strong amid rumors of a slowdown, but forecasts do not indicate this. Electronics are at tight capacity from manufacturers, with no [change] in the near future.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “Strong customer orders continue.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Current weather conditions causing significant delivery delays [and] diminishing our production capabilities.” (Machinery)
  • “Strong business momentum coming into January and early February has slowed to typical seasonal business conditions for our industry.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

And with markets gripped by pervasive euphoria, it’s no surprise that stocks quickly ignored the Markit print and focused on the ISM’s far rosier report.

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

The sad case of the City of Chicago along with the no 1 basket case state in the union: Illinois

(John Rubino/DollarCollapse)

SWAMP STORIES

Steve Bannon states that Trump will now go over his opponents as the Mueller investigation is over. Grab your popcorn.

(courtesy zerohedge)_

Bannon: “Trump Is Going To Go Full-Animal On His Opponents Now That The Mueller Investigation Is Over”

Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“I have a better education than them, I’m smarter than them, I went to the best schools; they didn’t. Much more beautiful house, much more beautiful apartment. Much more beautiful everything. And I’m president and they’re not,” declared Trump at his Michigan MAGA rally, refusing to take profit on the trade.

You see, Mueller found him innocent of Russian collusion. And while the report stopped short of exonerating him for obstruction, Mueller’s overall ruling was an enormous windfall.

A typical trader would take at least some profit, selling into the euphoria, rising above it all, extending a hand to broaden his base.

“Trump is going to go full-animal on his political opponents now that he’s no longer in the shadow of Mueller’s investigation,” predicted Bannon, the President’s former Chief Strategist. Steve’s usually right.

And as Trump ordered OPEC to lower oil prices, his economic advisor Larry Kudlow and Federal Reserve nominee Stephen Moore called for an immediate 50bp interest rate cut from the Fed – desperate to fire up the economy heading into 2020.

“The Democrats have to now decide whether they will continue defrauding the public with ridiculous bullshit, partisan investigations or whether they will apologize to the American people and join us to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure and bring down the cost of health care and prescription drugs,” taunted Trump.

And as his MAGA crowd went wild, replacing “Lock Her Up” with “AOC Sucks”, Democrats entered the five stages of grief: denial comes first, followed by anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. And naturally, it would be so much easier if the Dems could just take a loss.

But in today’s internecine conflict, with tribes fighting for absolute victory or utter defeat, no one seems willing to extend a hand, take a profit or a loss and move onward, upward, as The United States of America.

end

The House Democrats want a full unredacted Mueller report and all underlying evidence as the witch hunt refuses to go away.  The USA is now in turmoil

(courtesy zeroedge)

House Democrats To Issue Subpoena For Full, Unredacted Mueller Report And Underlying Evidence

The House Judiciary Committee led by Chairman Jerry Nadler (D-NY) will vote on Wednesday to authorize subpoenas for a full, unredacted copy of the nearly 400 page Mueller report, according to CNN and the Wall Street Journal

 

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler, (D-N.Y.), on March 26 PHOTO: J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Nadler said Monday that he had scheduled a markup on Wednesday to authorize a subpoena for the Mueller report, as well as the special counsel’s underlying evidence. The markup would give the New York Democrat the green light to subpoena the report, though Nadler has not said whether he would do so before Attorney General William Barr releases a redacted version publicly, which he is expected to do later this month. –CNN

Nadler’s committee will also vote on whether to issue subpoenas for five former White House staffers; Steve Bannon, Hope Hicks, Reince Priebus, Don McGahn and Ann Donaldson – who Nadler claims may have received documents from the White House connected to the Mueller probe that would waive executive privilege.

On Friday, Barr sent Nadler and Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham a letter notifying them that he was working with Mueller to redact sensitive information which could affect ongoing matters – including grand jury material, information that would infringe on someone’s personal privacy or information which could compromise the DOJ’s sources and methods of investigation, and that the redacted report would be ready by mid-April “if not sooner.” 

This wasn’t good enough for Nadler, who responded “As I informed the Attorney General..Congress requires the full and complete Mueller report, without redactions, as well as access to the underlying evidence, by April 2.  That deadline still stands.”

Nadler also said Barr should work with Congress through the court system to allow the grand jury material to be made public – which one Democratic aide called the “primary obstacle” to its full release.

We have an obligation to read the full report, and the Department of Justice has an obligation to provide it, in its entirely, without delay. If the department is unwilling to produce the full report voluntarily, then we will do everything in our power to secure it for ourselves,” wrote Nadler in a New York Times op-ed published Monday. “We require the report, first, because Congress, not the attorney general, has a duty under the Constitution to determine whether wrongdoing has occurred. The special counsel declined to make a ‘traditional prosecutorial judgment’ on the question of obstruction, but it is not the attorney general’s job to step in and substitute his judgment for the special counsel’s.”

Top House Judiciary Republican Georgia Rep. Doug Collins has accused Nadler of trying to force Barr to “break the law by releasing the report without redactions.”

Democrats argue that there’s ample precedent for Barr to release the full report to Congress, including grand jury material, pointing to the investigations into Watergate and former President Bill Clinton. They’re also citing the Republican-led investigation in the last Congress into the FBI and Justice Department’s handling of the Clinton and Trump-Russia investigations, in which Republicans demanded sensitive law-enforcement documents from the department. –CNN

Last month Barr released a four-page summary of Mueller’s nearly two-year investigation into Russian matters surrounding the 2016 US election – which concluded that President Trump and his campaign did not collude with Russia. Mueller let Barr and Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein decide whether Trump obstructed Justice, which they ruled he did not.

END

Looks like the deep state do not want Biden to run against Trump: a second accuser emerges against him

(courtesy zerohedge)

Second Biden Accuser Emerges As Rep Calls Accusations Of Creepy Behavior ‘Smears And Forgeries’

On Monday, a Connecticut woman claims that Biden touched her inappropriately and “rubbed noses” with her during a 2009 political fundraiser in Greenwich.

It wasn’t sexual, but he did grab me by the head,” Amy Lappos told The Hardford Courant on Monday. Lappos is a former congressional aide to Rep. Jim Hines (D-CT) and first posted about the alleged incident in the Facebook group Connecticut Women in Politics on Sunday using a pseudonym.

He put his hand around my neck and pulled me in to rub noses with me. When he was pulling me in, I thought he was going to kiss me on the mouth.

“I never filed a complaint, to be honest, because he was the vice president. I was a nobody,” said Lappos. “There’s absolutely a line of decency. There’s a line of respect. Crossing that line is not grandfatherly. It’s not cultural. It’s not affection. It’s sexism or misogyny.”

False narrative? 

A spokesman for former Vice President Joe Biden says that recent reports of decades-old images and footage of him creeping on women and children is a “false narrative” perpetuated by trolls from the “dark recesses of the internet,” according to Business Insider.

Biden spokesperson Bill Russo said in a statement Monday that multiple pictures being used to paint the potential 2020 presidential candidate as creepily touching women are being misinterpreted and have been refuted by the subjects of photos that have gone viral.

“These smears and forgeries have existed in the dark recesses of the internet for a while,” he said. “And to this day, right wing trolls and others continue to exploit them for their own gain.” –Business Insider

It’s unclear what Russo means by “forgeries” – since the authenticity of the material has not been challenged to this point.

“There are other, even more insidious examples of claims about the Vice President that have no foundation: the use of photoshopped images and other manipulations of social media,” added Russo. “Perhaps most galling of all, a cropped photo of the Vice President comforting his grandson outside of his son Beau’s funeral has been used to further this false narrative.”

Which, of note, is distinctly different than the below picture of Biden about to mouth-kiss his grandson Hunter after taking the oath of office.

This also doesn’t appear to be a forgery:

Former Democratic nominee for Nevada lieutenant governor Lucy Flores accused Biden of smelling her hair before planting a “big slow kiss” on her head in a 2014 incident.

 

The day of the 2014 rally, speakers gathered and took photos before going on stage. Flores (right) is pictured with Longoria and Biden before the uncomfortable encounter.

On Sunday, Flores recounted the incident on CNN‘s “State of the Union” with Jake Tapper, stating that amid the chaos and energy of the event, Biden “very unexpectedly and out of nowhere,” Biden “put his hands on my shoulders, get up very close to me from behind, lean in, smell my hair, and then plant a slow kiss on the top of my head.”

State of the Union

@CNNSotu

Former Nevada Assemblywoman Lucy Flores alleges Joe Biden kissed the back of her head in 2014 at a campaign rally: “It was shocking because you don’t expect that kind of intimate behavior, you don’t expect that kind of intimacy from someone so powerful.” https://cnn.it/2HQ8FDM 

Embedded video

State of the Union

@CNNSotu

Lucy Flores: “Part of the reason why I decided to finally say something is because those behaviors were not being taken very seriously. … I just can’t imagine that there was never a situation where someone said to him, ‘Mr. Vice President, you probably should stop doing that’” pic.twitter.com/6Vt5m5DHrE

Embedded video

Biden’s odds of winning the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, according to PredictIt, have taken yet another dive on the news of his second accuser.

end
Trump is considering an immigration czar to coordinate border policy across all agencies
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Considers “Immigration Czar” To Coordinate Border Policy Across Agencies

The Trump administration is floating the idea of hiring a “border” or “immigration” czar who would coordinate executive policies across several federal agencies, according to TPM, citing three anonymous sources familiar with the discussions.

Two candidates are reportedly under consideration; Former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli – both of whom have strong conservative views on immigration.

 

President Trump and Kris Kobach

It has yet to be decided whether the post would be housed within the Department of Homeland Security or the White House.

White House press aides, Kobach and Cuccinelli did not immediately respond to requests for comment. –TPM

Trump, meanwhile, halted foreign aid to the Central American ‘caravan’ countries of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador – and threatened last week to close the US border with Mexico.

On Friday Trump accused the countries of ‘setting up’ migrant caravans,  per CNN.

“We were paying them tremendous amounts of money. And we’re not paying them anymore. Because they haven’t done a thing for us. They set up these caravans,” Trump reportedly said.

“At the Secretary’s instruction, we are carrying out the President’s direction and ending FY 2017 and FY 2018 foreign assistance programs for the Northern Triangle,” said a State Department spokesperson. “We will be engaging Congress as part of this process.”

Mark Knoller

@markknoller

Sounding angry and fed up, Pres Trump says Mexico has to stop illegal crossings into the US. If it doesn’t, he says he’ll shut the southern border for a long time. Also calls on Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador & Colombia to do more to stop caravans and drugs headed for US.

Meanwhile, the Customs and Border Protection agency has its hands full with record numbers of migrants crossing the border illegally between ports of entry.

CBP

@CBP

.@CBP_McAleenan: We are now on pace for over 100,000 apprehensions and encounters with migrants—with 90% (90,000) crossing the border illegally between ports of entry. March will be the highest month in over a decade.

end
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:
from Friday

China shifts position on tech transfers, trade talks progress – U.S. officials

China has made proposals in talks with the United States on a range of issues that go further than it has before, including on forced technology transfer…    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-trade-exclusive/exclusive-china-makes-unprecedented-proposals-on-tech-trade-talks-progress-u-s-officials-idUSKCN1R905P

Praet’s Take on ECB Policy and the Economy: Interview Highlights

ECB must ‘seriously’ analyze negative-rate effect on lending

     The European Central Bank will need to have a solid monetary policy case before officials act to mitigate the side effects of negative interest rates on banks [via ‘tiering’], according to chief economist Peter Praet. He also sees long-term loans for banks as an important instrument that can be calibrated to counteract possible further deterioration in the economy…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-28/praet-s-take-on-ecb-policy-and-the-economy-interview-highlights

Draghi/The ECB Struggles with Three Big Questions: Ferdinando Giugliano

Peter Praet’s comment on tiering interest rates is just one example of where the ECB can’t make its mind up. The others are the [economic] outlook and inflation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-03-28/the-ecb-is-struggling-with-three-big-questions

A second high-ECB official issued hawkish comments at about 8 ET.

Knot Says ECB Should Stay ‘Far Away’ From Tiering Deposit Rate

  • Dutch official pushes back against mitigating impact of tool
  • Bank profitability is a ‘secondary discussion’ for ECB

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-28/knot-says-ecb-should-stay-far-away-from-tiering-deposit-rate

Kudlow Says U.S. Ready to Extend China Talks by Weeks or Months [10:22 ET]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-28/kudlow-says-u-s-ready-to-extend-china-talks-by-weeks-or-months

Uncle Lar’s verbal intervention fell flat.  If central bank dovish comments and US-China trade deal hype can no longer boost stocks, what will bulls and algos do?

Kudlow Says U.S. Ready to Extend China Talks by Weeks or Months [10:22 ET]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-28/kudlow-says-u-s-ready-to-extend-china-talks-by-weeks-or-months

Uncle Lar’s verbal intervention fell flat.  If central bank dovish comments and US-China trade deal hype can no longer boost stocks, what will bulls and algos do?

Rand Paul to Introduce Amendment to Mueller Report Resolution That Demands Release of Obama’s Communications Concerning Decision to Investigate Trump Campaign

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/03/rand-paul-to-introduce-amendment-to-mueller-report-resolution-that-demands-public-release-of-obamas-communications-concerning-the-decision-to-investigate-the-trump-campaign/

@seanmdav: Devin Nunes zeroing in on how former Obama Russian ambassador Michael McFaul came to be so publicly interested in Carter Page at the same time the FBI was secretly cooking up a bunch of lies about Page, who was later the subject of a false FISA warrant.

    As the Russiagate scandal unfolds, it will be interesting to learn how many in media have undisclosed personal and financial connections to some of the top government players who perpetuated this hoax on the public. As @LeeSmithDC noted, this is an extinction-level event.

Adam Schiff urged to step down by GOP members on House Intelligence Committee

“The findings of the Special Counsel conclusively refute your past and present assertions and have exposed your position to knowingly promote false information, having damaged the integrity of this committee, and undermined faith in U.S. institutions.”…

    “Your actions both past and present are incompatible with your duty as Chairman of this Committee,” the letter stated. “We have no faith in your ability to discharge your duties in a manner consistent with your Constitutional responsibility and urge your immediate resignation as Chairman of this Committee.”

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/adam-schiff-urged-to-step-down-by-gop-members-on-house-intelligence-committee

GOP rep calls for investigation into Schiff

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/436269-gop-rep-calls-for-investigation-into-schiff

Ex-FBI Agent Mark Wauck: How Was Trump Able To Stiff Mueller? [on interview]

The new legal team pressed Mueller to show them that the investigation had reached a stage that would justify sitting down with the president… “Are you in a position where you have evidence of a crime?” the source said the team asked Mueller…

     Mueller knew that he wasn’t ever going to find “collusion” or anything like it because all the intercepts were right there on his desk… Team Mueller already had all the FISA surveillance… they also had(probably illegally) all the communications of the Trump Transition, not to mention other internal emails and communications–mountains of documentation… after examining all the documentation and conducting 500 interviews, there was NO EVIDENCE of collusion.   A presidential interview in such circumstances could only be a “fishing expedition” or “witchhunt.”

http://meaninginhistory.blogspot.com/2019/03/how-was-trump-able-to-stiff-mueller.html?m=1

Ex-DoJ official @SidneyPowell1: Mueller knew there was no collusion from the beginning.  He and Weissmann go back decades.  Weissmann, Ahmad and countless agents on SCO [Spec Counsel Office] were working with Ohr and FBI to create dossier long before SCO squad & to protect Hillary Clinton. Weissmann probably helped bring in RM [Mueller]

Alan Dershowitz: How CNN misled its viewers

As a liberal Democrat who strongly supported Hillary Clinton, I had some credibility when I raised questions about the certainty with which other CNN guests had declared Trump guilty…

     Then I received off-the-record information that an order had come from the very top: CNN executive Jeff Zucker didn’t want me on CNN any more. My centrist, nuanced perspective was anathema to CNN’s emerging brand as the anti-Trump network…

     John Brennan, the former director of the CIA, has acknowledged that he may have based his mistaken assessments and predictions on “bad information,” but what he failed to say was that he and CNN were often the source of this bad information that led viewers to have false expectations

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/436059-alan-dershowitz-how-cnn-misled-its-viewers

Will the Times ever revisit its story about the government spying on Trump?

Are the New York Times and the Washington Post going to return the ill-gotten Pulitzer Prizes… received for their coverage of the nonexistent collusion between Trump’s administration and the Russians?…

      But the NYT did do one story that was very much worthy of a prize… “Wiretapped Data Used in Inquiry of Trump Aides.”… So why wasn’t that blockbuster included in the package of stories submitted for the Pulitzer it won, or a separate one?

    The NYT — I suspect — didn’t want to focus on the story about wiretapping Trump’s campaign because it went contrary to the paper’s agenda, which was to undermine Trump…

https://nypost.com/2019/03/27/will-the-times-ever-revisit-its-story-about-the-government-spying-on-trump/

PS – The MSM mocked and refuted Trump when he said the Deep State was spying on him – even though the NY Times broke the news about the spying!!!

We’re old enough to remember when Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, leading Democrats and the MSM slammed Trump for not totally committing to accept the election results if he lost.  Good times!

Dem Presidential Candidate Stacey Abrams @staceyabrams: Trump’s refusal to concede the election if he loses proves he is a petty man uninterested in our national stability   October 20, 2016

 

Trump campaign struggles with fallout over his refusal to commit to election results

Pelosi said he stooped to a “new low with his contempt for the sanctity of our elections.” And Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams said it was a “petty, petulant and absurd rejection” of democracy that demeans him and his campaign.  “We should be ashamed of anyone who would place his ego above our nation’s stability, and I trust his advisers will convince him to do what is right,” Abrams said.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/trump-campaign-struggles-with-fallout-over-his-refusal-commit-election-results/0mknnjRiAAvlbY2KHpsCgL/

Tom Steyer tells @ABC News he intends to stick with his efforts to promote the impeachment of Pres. Trump, even as many congressional Democrats have quieted talk of such efforts. https://abcn.ws/2FFaTDm

Wouldn’t all the billions spend on politics be better spent on helping those in need?  Asking for a friend.

for Monday:

On Saturday, Trump halted all US funding to El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala for their lack of cooperation with the caravans.

The recent Pew survey shows GOP voters’ top concern [65%] is illegal immigration.  57% are concerned about the national debt.  83% of Dem voters are concerned about healthcare.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/03/29/gop-voters-immigration-pew/

On Friday afternoon, AG Barr said he would release a redacted version of Mueller’s Report to Congress in mid-April.  Barr said Mueller is helping with the required by law redactions; Trump will NOT exercise executive privilege (Big clue to what’s in the report) and the WH will NOT get a preview.  Barr effectively destroyed the MSM and Dem current talking points.

Lawsuit Seeks Documents Potentially Showing FBI Ignored Intelligence Community IG Evidence That Chinese Hacked Clinton’s Server – The Chinese firm obtained Clinton’s emails in real-time as she sent and received communications and documents through her personal server…

    ICIG officials Frank Rucker and Janette McMillan repeatedly met with the FBI to warn them of the Chinese intrusion after discovering it “pretty early in 2015,” a former intelligence officer said… raises questions about whether the FBI’s review of Clinton’s security practices was thorough…

https://dailycaller.com/2019/03/28/lawsuit-fbi-hack-clinton-email/

Well before the 2016 election we presented media reports that several nations had HRC’s password for her Blackberry and were watching her communications in real time.  NSA knew this because, reportedly, they were watching the other nations, including Russia & China, in real time watching HRC in real time.

At what point will collusion delusional Democrats facing tough 2020 campaigns pivot to blaming Deep State figures for their “collusion delusion”?  That’s what we would do!  Someone’s got to take the blame!

In subpoena fight, Trump lawyer told Mueller: ‘You want to do it, you’ve got yourself a war’

The conflict dominated a difficult March 5, 2018, meeting.  “I asked, what’s the president’s status?” Dowd said. “[Mueller said] he’s a witness-slash-subject. And I said, you mean he has no exposure? He said that’s right.  So I knew then for sure, by inference, that [Mueller] had nothing to proceed on in the collusion and conspiracy area.”  Still, Mueller said he needed to interview Trump, and that he might subpoena the president.  [Over one year ago, Mueller admitted that he had no evidence of collusion.]

    “He dropped that on the table, and I reacted very strongly,” Dowd recalled. “I said go ahead, you’re threatening this president with a subpoena. It’s doubtful whether the [Justice Department] Office of Legal Counsel would have approved such a thing. … But beside that, I said, well go ahead. I want to hear what you tell the court is your basis to do it when you don’t have a crime, you’ve just told me [Trump] doesn’t have any exposure, so what are you going to tell a U.S. district judge? Because we’re going to move to quash this thing. And Jay Sekulow and his team were ready to do it … We’re ready to do it if you want to do it.”  Then he backed off, he said don’t get upset,” Dowd continued…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/byron-york-in-subpoena-fight-trump-lawyer-told-mueller-you-want-to-do-it-youve-got-yourself-a-war

Dowd: “There was no collusion… So I wrote to Rosenstein. He blew me off.

The Media Owes Americans an Apology for Dividing the Country with Collusion Hate Mongering In pursuit of a smoking gun that would validate their discontent with the president, media used trumped-up information to lead Americans into hating their friends and loved ones. [Did Putin’s work]

https://thefederalist.com/2019/03/29/media-owes-americans-apology-dividing-country-collusion-hate-mongering/

The MSM has been dividing Americans and fomenting hate/discontent since the Vietnam War.  Journalism dies in darkness.

New York Magazine’s @yashar: 1. Yesterday, I received a call from @DafnaLinzer who serves as managing editor of NBC/MSNBC politics. Dafna’s conduct during the call was highly inappropriate and unethical. So what was the purpose of her call? She called me to bully me on behalf of the DNC.

  1. Dafna, who oversees the political coverage for NBC and MSNBC, was calling to bully me into delaying the publication of an innocuous scoop and at no point did she advocate for her network, it was only about the DNC… the dates of the first 2020 primary debates later that day. The source gave me the dates they would be announcing: June 26 and 27… She wanted me to wait so they could call state party leaders… What I can’t figure out is (and no one else I spoke to could understand), why open yourself up to this for a stupid story? How was this worth it?[Imagine the MSM-Dem collusion on important stuff!]

Polls show Biden is the top choice among Dems for prez in 2020.  Bernie is second.  Leftists want Joe out of the race.  The more leftist elements of the MSM ganged up on Creep Joe over the weekend.

An Awkward Kiss Changed How I Saw Joe Biden by Lucy Flores

I felt him get closer to me from behind. He leaned further in and inhaled my hair. I was mortified… He proceeded to plant a big slow kiss on the back of my head…

     But hearing Biden’s potential candidacy for president discussed without much talk about his troubling past as it relates to women became too much to keep bottled up any longer…

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/03/an-awkward-kiss-changed-how-i-saw-joe-biden.html

Lucy Flores isn’t alone. Joe Biden’s got a long history of touching women inappropriately.

The media gave Biden a pass for years. It won’t in 2020. [He isn’t leftist enough now]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/29/18241598/joe-biden-lucy-flores-touching-women-media-history-explained

OAN’s Emerald Robinson @EmeraldRobinson: Notice: this is Vox running this piece. Why? Obama is backing Kamala. Joe Biden has been told not to run – he wants to run anyway. So they’re going for the knockout early. Will it stop Joe from running? My guess: yes it will.

    Notice that “creepy Joe Biden” video compilation and stories about Biden harassing women all started trending on social media on the same day – the Dem media complex is doing a pretty good job of killing the front runner in the Dem polling before he even announces.

Joe Biden Is Done

Joe Biden is a creepy old goat. Everyone knows this. There is much photographic evidence of him crossing the line with women. He’s also a liar and a buffoon…

    Today, because the feminist-leftist staff of The Cut at New York magazine think the Dems can do better than Biden, there’s a devastating first-person account of what it’s like to be a woman and have Creepy Joe sneak up behind you (plus a column, which ran an hour later, saying, “Joe Biden Isn’t the Answer.”)… The Democratic candidate with the best chance of beating President Trump is doomed.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/joe-biden-democratic-party-2020-presidential-candidacy/

Joe Biden Isn’t the Answer [Litany of Joe’s anti-leftist positions]

While officially Democrats remained on the progressive side, supporting reproductive rights, civil rights, and affirmative action, a contingent of Those Guys, Joe Biden notable among them, made folksy rationalizations for abrogating, rather than expanding and more fiercely protecting, new rights and protections…  http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/03/joe-biden-isnt-the-answer-for-president-in-2020.html

 

Holy Hell Would Be Unleashed On ‘Handsy’ Joe Biden If He Were Conservative (Jan 7, 2015)

https://thefederalist.com/2015/01/07/holy-hell-would-be-unleashed-on-handsy-joe-biden-if-he-were-conservative/

We mentioned several months ago that Biden had no chance because his past is littered with creepy incidents, bizarre behavior and goofy statements.  This year, Biden also happens to be the Dem candidate that is furthest to the right.  He also has the best favorability among blue collar Americans.

Biden knew that leftists’ assaults were coming.  That’s why Joe virtue signaled last week.

Biden criticizes ‘white man’s culture’ as he talks violence against women [Not good enough, Joe!  You and Bernie are leading the field by a wide margin; but you’re the wrong demographic in the race!]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/27/politics/joe-biden-white-mans-culture/index.html

 

-END-

 

Let us close with this great interview of Dr Dave Janda with Greg Hunter.  He discusses how Trump et al will bring the big democrat players down

(courtesy Greg hunter/USAWatchdog)

Failed Trump Coup is Treason – Dave Janda

By Greg Hunter On March 31, 2019

Dr. Dave Janda of the popular radio show Operation Freedom says the end of the Mueller probe means the coup to remove Donald Trump from power is over. Why would all these high ranking players create a fake story and commit massive crime to take out Trump? Dr. Janda says, “Power, control and money. Donald Trump is not part of their particular silo in the globalist club, that being the Rothschild/Rockefeller axis. They saw Trump as an enemy of their state. The movement he helped create took on their power base and attacked the middle level puppets of the Rothschild/Rockefeller axis, meaning the Obamas, Clintons, Bush family, McCains, Romneys, Ryans and Soros’. They see Trump as an individual leading a movement that can affect how they have been able to control and their ultimate power. . . . They want to undermine him and continue to want to remove him from office. When you break all this down, it is about sedition . . . and treason. . . . Why would they do something like this? This is all about sedition, treason . . . and a cover-up of all these Deep State players’ criminal activity. This was meant to get Hillary in power so they could continue to sweep this under the rug.”

Trump is not only going after the mid-level players in this failed coup but is going all the way to the top of the power and money orchestrating it. Dr. Janda says, “The higher ups come down two ways. One, he is by squeezing the mid-level players, and number two, he’s going to use the Al Capone technique. Capone was brought in on tax evasion. I think the way they are going to bring in the Clintons is to go after the financial irregularities in the Clinton Foundation and how it did business. . . . as much as $2.5 billion, and that’s just for starters, was used in a money laundering operation through the Clinton Foundation. . . . I also think they are going to squeeze the higher ups like the Rothschilds, Rockefellers and the Payseurs and going all the way up. They are going to squeeze them on the financial side. . . . It doesn’t stop with the Obamas and Clintons, Bush and Soros because you are not solving the problem. When you are looking at cancer, you can’t take a small part of a tumor. You have to take out the entire tumor.”

Why is the takedown of the Deep State taking so long? Dr. Janda says, “The system is rigged to blow. . . . One of the concerns is as the Rothschild/Rockefeller axis loses its power, control and financial resources, they will do something that’s terrible and harm a lot of different people. President Trump is one of the individuals leading the charge and trying to protect the system. So, as it does reset itself, it will be a reset that is not catastrophic for millions of people. . . . A number of people tell me they are surprised the system has not cracked further already. The reason why it has not happened is there has been this shoring up process behind the curtain. . . . The declassification has not taken place yet because the President and his team have been trying to cordon off all these threats on a number of different fronts.”

In short, Janda contends that President Trump wants to make sure all Deep State counterattacks are neutralized before declassification and arrests are made.

Dr. Janda goes on to say, “This is a huge awakening project for the American public. . . . There has to be a huge awakening of the public. The public has been propagandized for decades, and the first part of bringing down that facade was labeling the mainstream media (MSM) as being fake. The MSM was all involved in treason and sedition. They were all involved in propagandizing the public, and they are all part of the problem.”

Dr. Janda says the real end goal of the globalists is to destroy America and loot it in the process. Dr. Janda says, “Yes, because we were the speed bump to the globalists’ goal and objective of a New World Order, a One World Government and complete control.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Dr. Dave Janda, creator and founder of the popular radio show “Operation Freedom.”

-END-World economic news:

 

I WILL SEE YOU TUESDAY NIGHT
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