MARCH 29/OPTIONS EXPIRY NOW OVER AND THUS GOLD AND SILVER RISE; GOLD UP $2.70 TO $1293.35//SILVER UP 12 CENTS TO $15.12//COMEX GOLD SAW A MASSIVE 48,000 OPEN INTEREST DROP DUE TO THE CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION BY THE SPREADERS WHO ARE BANKERS IN DISGUISE//THERESA MAY FAILS AGAIN ON HER THIRD VOTE AND IT SURE LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A NO DEAL BREXIT//BIG STORY OF THE DAY: TURKEY IS REAL TROUBLE AS HER USA DOLLARS RESERVES PLUMMET: 5 BIG EUROPEAN BANKS ARE IN TROUBLE IF TURKEY FAILS//

 

 2

 

GOLD: $1293.35  UP $2.70 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15.12 UP 12 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1292.70

 

silver: $15.13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

APRIL

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 957 NOTICE(S) FOR 195700 OZ (2.9766 tonnes

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  957 NOTICES FOR 95700 OZ  (2.9766 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

141 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 705,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 141 for 705,000  oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $4087:UP $71

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $4099  UP 71

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today  0/957

however JPMorgan issued 895 out of the 957 contracts

XCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,289.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/28/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 04/01/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
104 C MIZUHO 2
132 C SG AMERICAS 2
323 C HSBC 3
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 21
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 228
661 C JP MORGAN 895
685 C RJ OBRIEN 18
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1 17
690 C ABN AMRO 53
737 C ADVANTAGE 12 26
800 C MAREX SPEC 16
880 H CITIGROUP 606
905 C ADM 10 4
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 957 957

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST WENT UP AGAIN  :  THIS TIME BY A STRONG  SIZED 3321 CONTRACTS FROM 194,082 UP TO 197,403 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 31 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEXTODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE MUST HAVE HAD  CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AGAIN TODAY.

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  0 FOR MAY, 5639 FOR MARCH 2020  0 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 5639 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 5639 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 5639 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 28.195 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 31 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

AND NOW 3.53 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

41,567 CONTRACTS (FOR 21 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 41,567 CONTRACTS) OR 207.835 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1979 CONTRACTS OR 9.896 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  207.835 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 29.68% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          572.69    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                           207.835   MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3321 DESPITE THE 31 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD   A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 5639 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED: 8960 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 5639 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 3321 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 31 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER ????  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.988 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 141% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 141 NOTICE(S) FOR  705,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW APRIL AT 3.530 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN UNBELIEVABLE SIZED 48,565 CONTRACTS, TO 456.179 WITH THE  FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A DROP IN PRICE OF $20.60//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  

I KNOW FOR SURE THAT WE JUST HAD OUR THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF AN OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE DUE TO THE ANTICS OF THE SPREADERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SPREADERS LIQUIDATE THEIR CONTRACTS NOT SIMULTANEOUSLY BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES DURING THE TRADING DAY TO CAUSE THE CASCADE OF PRICING IN OUR PRECIOUS METALS AND THAT IS HOW THEY ALWAYS WIN ON OPTION EXPIRY..THEY ARE SO CROOKED. AT THE END OF THE DAY THEY ELIMINATE THE OTHER HALF OF THE SPREAD TRADE.

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 16,172 CONTRACTS:

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 19 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 16,068 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020l  100 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 457,650. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 32,393 CONTRACTS: 48,565 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 16,172 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 32,393 CONTRACTS OR 3,239,300 OR  100.75 TONNES.

YESTERDAY WE HAD A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $20.60....AND YET WITH THAT, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS LOSS IN TONNAGE OF 100.75 TONNES!!!!!!. (HOWEVER ALL OF THE COMEX LOSS IS NO DOUBT DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS ALBEIT AT DIFFERENT TIMES DURING THE DAY)

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 159,836 CONTRACTS OR 15,983,600 OR 497.16 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7611 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 497.16 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 497.16/2550 x 100% TONNES = 19.49% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1372.72 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED  DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 48,565 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($20.60) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 16,162 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 16,162 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 32,393 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

16,172 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 48,565 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 100.75 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS LACK OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN PRICE OF $20.60 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX!!!!! HOWEVER THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT AGAIN WE HAVE HUGE LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS AS WE HEAD INTO AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AND IT IS THEIR ACTION THAT LEAD TO A FALL IN PRICE SO UNDERWRITTEN CONTRACTS WOULD NOT BE EXERCISED. THIS IS HOW THE CROOKS WIN ALWAYS ON OPTIONS EXPIRY.

 

 

 

we had:  957 notice(s) filed upon for 95,700 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $2.70  TODAY 

 

VERY STRANGE!! AGAIN  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

STRANGE!!! AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.957 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3321 CONTRACTS from 194,082 UPTO 197,403 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 5639 FOR MAY AND MARCH 2020: 0 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5639 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 3321 CONTRACTS TO THE 5639 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE  OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 8960  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 44.80 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH. AND NOW 3.530 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 31 CENT FALL IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 5639 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 95.82 POINTS OR 3.20% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 276.15 POINTS OR 0.96%  /The Nikkei closed UP 172.85 POINTS OR 0.82%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.08%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.124 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 58.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.05 for Brent. Stocks inEurope OPENED MIXED

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7134 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7228 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)China is testing long range missiles from a concealed ship. The Israelis were also  working on something like this

( zerohedge)

ii)Huawei profits soar in 2018 along with revenue despite the uSA shutdown its products. The Chairman tells Washington to drop its “loser attitude”

(courtesy zerohedge)

END

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)BREXIT/EU

Mark Mobius of Templeton fame describes the deteriorating financial conditions inside the uK..their balance of payments is awful accompanied by huge debt.  He feels that once the tether is broken from the EU, the country will be forced to raise rates to keep funds in the country. He feels that there is a risk of a downgrade in their sovereign debt

( Mark Mobius/zerohedge)

ii)UK/8 AM

the pound surges this morning on reports that Dominic Raab may join May and vote in the affirmative. I do not think that this would be good for Britain..it would be far better to have a Brexit without a deal and let the country make their own deals on trade
( zerohedge)

iii)Bill Blain on the Brexit and Boeing..

a must read…

(courtesy Bill Blain)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Turkey

It seems that there are 5 banks in trouble with huge exposure to a Turkish failure, namey the big Italian banks Intessa and Unicredit along with the French bank BNP Paribas. I noted that Turkish foreign reserves were down 1/3 down to about 24 billion USA./  They own 261 tonnes of gold or 10 billion dollars which is included in this foreign reserve calculation.  Turkey is down to their last remaining USA dollars.

( zerohedge)

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

BOEING/LION AIR

 

Somehow the anti stall software was mistakenly activated before the deadly crash.  Not sure what that means..

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Not to sure that Italy is going to like this:  Italy’s gold is the EU’s gold and for that matter:  all EU countries’ gold belongs to the EU/ECB( Reuters/GATA)

ii)Kranzler explains how the crooks orchestrated their paper raid on gold/silver last night. My commentary explains the mechanics behind the raid

( Dave Kranzler/GATA)

iii)Palladium hammered by over 200 dollars as car sales plummet

( Lawrie Williams)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//early this morning

 

 

 

 

ii)Market data

a)As mortgage rates plummet, new home sales surge

(zerohedge)

b)U. of Michigan soft data rebounds in March and it was hope in the low income American category that sparked the gain.

( zerohedge)

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Brandon Smith is one smart cookie. He believes that the Fed is controlling the demolition of its own economy.  He states that the Fed should have cut rates right now and not paused.  Why continue with balance sheet run off until September when already the economy is faltering badly and the yield curves are inverting. He believes that we know have a perfect storm where England is in a mess with Brexit, the European economies including Germany’s are badly in a rot and the uSA is engaging in a trade war with China.  The Fed does not like to be blamed so now it surely looks like a perfect storm is developing globally.

a must read…

( Brandon Smith)

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

Trump is set to hold Democrat officials behind the collusion hoax accountable

( zerohedge)

 

end

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSED FOR THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY AS IT FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 48,565 CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 456,179 WITH THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($20.60) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING) AND NO DOUBT WE WITNESSED OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY DEPLETION OF SPREADERS AS WE HEAD INTO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!! THEIR MODUS OPERANDI IN THEIR LIQUIDATION CAUSES PRICES TO FALL AND MAKE OPTIONS EXPIRE WORTHLESS!! THEY LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE FIRST TO CAUSE THE CASCADE, THEN USE THE SECOND LEG OF THE SPREAD TO BALANCE THEIR TRADE.  THEY USE THIS TO HIDE POSITION LIMITS.

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 16,172 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR APRIL 19 FOR JUNE ’19: 16,068 CONTRACTS AND FINALLY JUNE ’20 100 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  16,172 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 32,393 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 16,172 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 48,565 COMEX CONTRACTS.  

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::32,393 contracts OR 3,239,300 OZ OR 100.75 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of APRIL and here the open interest stands at 3880 contracts.  We lost an astounding 54,312 contracts today and no doubt these guys were told that there is no gold at the comex so that they had better migrate over to London.

 

Thus by definition, the amount standing for delivery of gold (if there is any) is as follows:

 

3880 contracts x 100 oz per contract = 388,000 oz or  12.068 tonnes of gold

it is also interesting is that is approximately the amount of registered gold showing at the comex  (11.388 tonnes)

 

 

The next non active delivery month after  APRIL is the NON active delivery month is MAY and here the OI gained by 1448 contracts UP to 3228 contracts. The next contract month after May is June and it is an active month.  Here the open interest rose by 5070 contracts up to 340,193 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 957 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 95,700 OZ. (2.9766 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3321 CONTRACTS FROM 194,082 UP TO 197,403(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 31 CENT FALL IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 706 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 40 CONTRACTS ON THE DAY.

 

THUS BY DEFINITION THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX IS AS FOLLOWS:

 

706 CONTRACTS X 5000 OZ PER CONTRACT  =  3.530 MILLION OZ.  WHICH IS A HUGE AMOUNT OF A NON ACTIVE MONTH.

 

 

 

 

 

AFTER APRIL, WE HAVE THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 2281 CONTRACTS UP TO 136.918. CONTRACTS..  WE STILL HAVE 0 OPEN INTEREST FOR JUNE 2019.  AFTER JUNE, THE VERY BIG DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HAD A GAIN OF 1025 CONTRACTS UP TO 33,550 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED A STRONG 8960 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 3321 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 5639 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  8960 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS STRONG  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 31 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY??? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 141 notice(s) filed for 705,000OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  256,056  CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  529,559  contracts (volume high due to raid)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  APRIL/GOLD

MAR 29 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
197.792
oz
hsbc
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
957 notice(s)
 nil OZ
(2.9766 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2923 contracts
(292300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
957 notices
95700 OZ
2.9766 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount today

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

i) Out of HSBC:

197.792 oz

 

total gold withdrawals;  197.792 oz

 

we had 2 adjustments…
i) out of Brinks:  99.90 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks
ii) Out of Delaware: 989.650 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware

FOR THE APRIL 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 895 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (957) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (3880 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (957 x 100 oz per contract) equals 388,000 OZ OR 12.0680 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (957 x 100 oz)  + (3880)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (957 x 100 oz )which equals 388,000oz standing OR 12.0680 TONNES in this  active delivery month of APRIL.

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 11.388 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  365,292.815 oz or  11.362 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,034,021.799 oz 249.89 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 1.201819.897 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

AT CONCLUSION APRIL 30/2018:  ONLY 4.6407 TONNES STOOD AS THE REST MIGRATED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR WHERE MANY MORPH TO LONDON BECAUSE THERE IS NO METAL AT THE COMEX.

 

 

IN THE LAST 30 MONTHS 105 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

MAR 29 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
2961.74 oz
Delaware
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
141
CONTRACT(S)
705,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
565 contracts
2,825,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 141 contracts

705,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.825 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.12% of all official comex silver. (147 million/300.8 million)

 

i) Into everybody else:  zero

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of  Delaware: 949.30 oz

ii) Out of HSBC: 2012.450 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 2,961.75  oz

 

we had 2 adjustments..and this is what i want to see to indicate settlements.  (yet nothing for gold)

i) Out of Brinks:  10,05,257.298 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks

ii) Out of CNT:  1,551,840.891.  oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of CNT

CNT has been very busy this week.

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  88.475million

total dealer + customer silver:  304.945 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2019. contract month is represented by 141 contract(s) FOR  705,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 141 x 5,000 oz = 705,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (706) and the number of notices served upon today (141 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month: 141(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL( 706) -number of notices served upon today (141)x 5000 oz equals 3,530,000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

ON  FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 29/2018: WE HAD 1,805,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY FOR THE  APRIL 2018 DELIVERY MONTH

AT CONCLUSION OF APRIL 2018: 2,485,000 OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS ALREADY WELL DEVELOPED IN SILVER. (APRIL IS A NON ACTIVE SILVER DELIVERY MONTH)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  73,348 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 94,481 CONTRACTS… (volume high due to raid)

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 94,481 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 472 million OZ  67.40% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.13% (MAR29/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.56% to NAV (MAR29/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.13%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.94/TRADING 12.47/DISCOUNT 3.66

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

 

MARCH 27/SURPRISING! WITH GOLD DOWN AGAIN BY $4.05, THE CROOKS NEEDED TO PUT GOLD BACK INTO THE GLD: THEY ADDED 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 781.03 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.85: A STRONG 2.94 TONNES DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 781.03 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $4.60 TODAY: A MASSIVE 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 779.27 TONNES AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1..18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED:  TOTAL GLD INVENTORY REMAINING:  778.09 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.70: A BIG CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.04 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT AGAIN OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.53 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $1.70: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.87 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY AND THIS GOLD HAS BEEN USED IN THE WHACKING PROCESS YESTERDAY AND TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD ANOTHER $12.50 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33 TONNES

FEB 26  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

 

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.99 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/ A SURPRISE GAIN (DEPOSIT) OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.50 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAR 29/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 784.26 tonnes

*IN LAST 569 TRADING DAYS: 150.69 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 469 TRADING DAYS: A NET 16.13 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.957 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 469,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.957 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.356 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TODAY AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 1.17 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 516,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: STRANGE!! TWO TRANSACTIONS!!  IN THE MORNING A WITHDRAWAL OF 703,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307,800 OZ/ IN THE AFTERNOON: A DEPOSIT OF 1.56 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY FINALLY RESTS AT 309.160 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS//A  SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 610,000 OZ//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ/

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT; NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/RESTS AT 309.984

FEB 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ/

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS: SURPRISINGLY A DEPOSIT OF 1.688 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

 

MAR 29/2019:

 

Inventory 309.957 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.11/ and libor 6 month duration 2.64

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .53

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.41%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.69

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.28

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

EU Countries Must Seek ECB Approval to Manage Gold Reserves – Draghi

– EU countries must seek ECB approval to manage gold reserves: Draghi
– European Central Bank in effect tells euro-zone countries your gold is the ECB’s

by Francesco Canepa on Reuters

The European Central Bank needs to approve any operation in the foreign reserves of euro zone countries, including gold and large foreign currency holdings, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi said on Thursday.

“The ECB shall approve both the operations in foreign reserve assets remaining with the NCBs (national central banks)…and Member States’ transactions with their foreign exchange working balances above a certain threshold,” Draghi told two Italian members of the European Parliament.

“The purpose of this competence is to ensure consistency with the exchange rate and monetary policy of the Union.”

Editors note: This is an interesting and important story that should have been picked up more widely in Europe’s media and not solely on Reuters. The context is not given despite it being very important indeed.

The ECB and its President Mario Draghi realise gold is very important in terms of protecting the euro from collapsing both in terms of nations reverting to their national currencies but also in terms of the euro, dollar, pound and other fiat currencies collapsing in value, if the public loses faith in them.

The ECB President said of gold in October 2013 that gold is a “reserve of safety” that “gives you a value-protection against fluctuations against the dollar.” Draghi told an open forum at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, why central banks want gold and what value it offers. He said that there were “several reasons” to own gold including “risk diversification.”

The largest buyers of gold in 2018 were central banks and the largest holders of gold remain the U.S., the Bundesbank and other central banks in the indeed the IMF and the ECB itself.

Investors should prudently follow the lead of central banks internationally and gradually accumulate gold and dollar, euro or pound cost averaging into an allocated and segregated physical gold position.

Related Content

Gold Is A ‘Reserve Of Safety’ Says ECB President – Watch Video

Eurozone Increases “Reserve of Safety” Gold Holdings To 10,792 Tonnes

 


Complimentary Storage In Zurich For 6 Month when you purchase the minimum amount of 10,000 ($€£) in physical gold and or silver for a limited time only until April 18

 

News and Commentary

ECB Tells Euro-zone Countries Your Gold Is Ours (Reuters.com)

Gold’s 1.6% Decline Leaves It Firmly Below Key $1,300 (MarketWatch.com)

Palladium sinks 6 pct in free fall, gold sheds 1 pct (Reuters.com)

U.S. fourth-quarter GDP revised down; profits weak (Reuters.com)

Deutsche Shares Plunge As Bank Discusses Raising Up To 10 Billion For Commerzbank Deal (ZeroHedge.com)

Why Central Bank Gold Demand Is Reaching New Highs (TheStreet.com)

What People Are Stocking Up on in Case Brexit Goes Bad (Bloomberg.com)

Inverted yield curve suggests the stock market has already peaked – Analysts (MarketWatch.com)

Be prepared to dump stocks ‘very quickly’ – Former Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman (MarketWatch.com)

Italy’s debt spiralling out of control and threatens the ‘single’ currency (ZeroHedge.com)

 

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

28 Mar: USD 1,306.90, GBP 995.20 & EUR 1,161.18 per ounce
27 Mar: USD 1,318.25, GBP 997.78 & EUR 1,168.23 per ounce
26 Mar: USD 1,315.25, GBP 993.15 & EUR 1,162.02 per ounce
25 Mar: USD 1,319.35, GBP 1001.39 & EUR 1,165.82 per ounce
22 Mar: USD 1,311.10, GBP 998.80 & EUR 1,159.41 per ounce
21 Mar: USD 1,317.30, GBP 1002.99 & EUR 1,155.80 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

28 Mar: USD 15.19, GBP 11.58 & EUR 13.53 per ounce
27 Mar: USD 15.40, GBP 11.65 & EUR 13.65 per ounce
26 Mar: USD 15.44, GBP 11.66 & EUR 13.65 per ounce
25 Mar: USD 15.52, GBP 11.77 & EUR 13.72 per ounce
22 Mar: USD 15.46, GBP 11.75 & EUR 13.68 per ounce
21 Mar: USD 15.54, GBP 11.85 & EUR 13.64 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Global Risks Increasing – Underlining The Case For Gold in 2019 (GoldCore Video Presentation)
– ‘No Deal’ Brexit Risk Impacting UK and Irish Economies – Gold Gains On Recession Concerns
– America’s “Debt Crisis Is Coming Soon”
– Russia Buys 1 Million Ounces Of Gold In February – Become Your Own Central Bank
– 5 Ways to Prosper In the Coming Crisis – Goldnomics Podcast
– Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank May Become EU’s “Too Big To Fail” Bank
– Happy Saint Patrick’s Day from GoldCore
– 188 Internet Shutdowns In 2018 Show Why Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection
– Buy Gold as Basel III Means “Central Banks and Banks Are Going To Be Buying Gold”

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

Not to sure that Italy is going to like this:  Italy’s gold is the EU’s gold and for that matter:  all EU countries’ gold belongs to the EU/ECB

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

Your gold is ours, European Central Bank tells euro-zone countries

 Section: 

Countries Must Seek ECB Approval to Manage Gold Reserves, Draghi Says

By Francesco Canepa
Reuters
Thursday, March 28, 2019

https://www.reuters.com/article/ecb-reserves-draghi/countries-must-seek-…

FRANKFURT, Germany — The European Central Bank needs to approve any operation in the foreign reserves of euro zone countries, including gold and large foreign currency holdings, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi said today.

… 

“The ECB shall approve both the operations in foreign reserve assets remaining with the national central banks … and member states’ transactions with their foreign exchange working balances above a certain threshold,” Draghi told two Italian members of the European Parliament.

“The purpose of this competence is to ensure consistency with the exchange rate and monetary policy of the Union.”

* * *

 

end

Kranzler explains how the crooks orchestrated their paper raid on gold/silver last night. My commentary explains the mechanics behind the raid

(courtesy Dave Kranzler/GATA)

Dave Kranzler: The paper raid on gold

 Section: 

By Dave Kranzler
Investment Research Dynamics, Denver
Thursday, March 28, 2019

Gold was smacked $22 from top to bottom overnight and this morning. It was a classic paper derivative raid on the gold price, which was implemented after the large physical gold buyers in the eastern hemisphere had closed shop for the day. This is what it looks like visually:

[See chart at link below]

As you can see, as each key physical gold trading/delivery market closes, the price of gold is taken lower. The coup de grace occurs when the Comex gold pit opens. The Comex is a pure paper market, as very little physical gold is ever removed from the vaults and the paper derivative open interest far exceeds the amount gold that is reported to be held in the Comex vaults. (The warehouse reports compiled by the banks that control the Comex are never independently audited.) …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-paper-raid-on-the-gold-price

end


iii) Other Physical stories
Good Morning Bill/Harvey,
BIS/BASEL III
I have learnt over many years not to pay any attention at all to anything any gold commentator has to say ,unless his name on on my most trusted list.Just about all commentators are now in a feeding frenzy about the the significance of 29th March 2019 as the implementation date for section 96 of the BIS document referenced in yesterday’s MIDAS.Can anyone point out the date of 29th March 2019 in this document? I can’t sight this date, and the more I study the document,it appears to me that the suggested implementation date is 1st January 2022. All Basel111/BIS documentation is merely advisory, however, and in many places appears the rider “local regulators may……”
On the other hand, the Basel 111 framework “The Liquidity Coverage Ratio” was promulgated in January 2013. and in paragraph 10 there is a phasing timetable with 100% fully phased implementation on 1st January 2019.From paragraph 45 onward there is a detailed discussion of what is encompassed by the term HQLA (high quality liquid assets), and gold is not specifically mentioned-not at all.
I would be more than grateful it someone could point out the authority for the specific date of 29th March 2019 as the implementation for the BASEL111 recommendations re vault gold. On another note let us examine the actual wording of section 96 of the Basel 111 document,Finalizing Post Crisis Reforms:a 0% risk weight will apply to gold bullion held at the bank,or held in another bank on an allocated basis to the extent that the gold bullion assets are backed by gold bullion liabilities.
Does this mean that a holder of allocated gold in (say) a JP Morgan vault must obtain confirmation that JP Morgan recognizes a specific liability for the numbered gold bars allocated to the counter party.But now I am more confused. Should banks reflect on their balance sheets as both assets and corresponding liabilities any gold held purely in the capacity as a custodian? If you have a safe deposit box at a bank, do you declare to the bank its contents so that the bank can record those assets on its balance sheet (and maybe a commensurate liability if you are lucky?!)
Here is an extract from an IMF sponsored paper:
Allocated gold is gold deposited under a safe-keeping or custody arrangement. It is “a specific and uniquely numbered physical piece of gold, which remains in the ownership of the individual or institution placing it for safe custody with a bank” (paragraph 15 of Philip Turnbull, BOPTEG issues paper # 27A). The owner of allocated gold keeps legal ownership over the allocated gold even if it is deposited with a custodial facility provider. In the economic system, it remains an asset without a counterpart liability.
I am therefore a bit confused to say the least by the BIS talking about reciprocal gold bullion liabilities.
Regards
Nicholas B/

.end

Palladium hammered by over 200 dollars as car sales plummet

(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Palladium hammered as car sales continue to fall

One of the signs of an imminent, or perhaps already existing, recession is the ongoing level of car sales and these have been heading downwards steeply in virtually all major markets . Contrary to this trend the palladium price had been heading ever higher – some suggested into bubble territory. But at last the penny seems to have dropped and the palladium bubble, if there was one, may well have burst with a phenomenal drop in price over the past couple of days. True, other precious metals have not been immune to the drop in prices and are mostly sharply down as well, but the fall in the palladium price has been nothing short of dramatic.

As recently as Wednesday palladium was riding high at comfortably above $1,500 an ounce. By yesterday’s North American close it had come off a massive $200 an ounce and even drifted lower in overnight trading before making a relatively small recovery this morning in the European markets. But we suspect this recovery will be shortlived as the metal’s price vulnerability sinks in. Indeed were it not for the gold price slipping back too in the face of a sharp rise in the dollar index, gold and platinum might have got close to parity again! We suspect that this might actually become the case over the next few weeks with gold likely to trend stronger, while palladium could well have further to fall.

U.S. car sales, having been down for the past several months, are widely expected to fall again this month. European sales have been down now for five months in a row with Brexit uncertainty not helpful, although ironically UK car sales actually saw a small pick-up in February. China, nowadays the world’s largest light vehicle market, has also seen new car registrations fall sharply for the past eight months.

Palladium’s price strength has largely been due to a perceived tight supply situation with demand having exceeded supply for the past couple of years. Its principal market has been as a petrol (gasoline) driven internal combustion engine exhaust emission control catalyst so a global downturn in petrol engine driven vehicles has to be significant in a market which has seen the palladium price rise by around eight times over the past 10 years!.

It is also worth pointing out that the car sales statistics do not show the true sales downturn for internal combustion engine driven vehicles as they include sales of electric powered cars (EVs) too, which are rising – particularly in China where EVs account for around 6% of the market – and rising. True some of these vehicles are hybrids which also require internal combustion engines to back up the electrical range, but in general these petrol driven engines are smaller and less ;powerful and require smaller palladium loads in their exhaust emission control systems. To an extent this is offset by tighter emission controls on new vehicles, but the overall trend for EV sales is distinctly upwards which will further eat into demand for palladium-dominant exhaust control catalysts

In short, we don’t see palladium demand as a consistently rising market. Indeed we see it declining as what is probably a global recession bites leading to an overall downturn in car sales. This will also see a likely additional downturn in palladium demand enhanced by continued growth in EV sales taking an ever-advancing proportion of new light vehicle sales.

29 Mar 2019

-END-

MARCH 28, 2019

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7134/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7228   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 95.82 POINTS OR 3.20% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 276.15 POINTS OR 0.96%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed //UP 172.85 POINTS OR 0.82%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.12/Euro RISES TO 1.1231

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.08/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.31/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.12 and Brent: 67.77

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP  /OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO –.06%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.48% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.08%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.56: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.74

3k Gold at $1293.60 silver at:15.10   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 19/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.79

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.79 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9955 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1182 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to –0.06%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.42% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.83%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6428..GETTING DANGEROUS

 

S&P Futures Jump On Renewed “Trade Talk Optimism”, Set For Best Quarter Since 2009

Global stocks and US equity futures rose in a broad rally to end the strongest quarter since 2012 while global bond yields rebounded after a prolonged slide on growth worries amid renewed “trade talk optimism” after Bloomberg reported overnight that U.S. negotiators have been working “line-by-line” through the text of the trade truce agreement and Steven Mnuchin said he had a “productive working dinner” the previous night in Beijing.

On Friday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer held meetings in Beijing to ensure there were no discrepancies in the English and Chinese-language versions of the text, and also to balance the number of working visits to each capital,

Steven Mnuchin

@stevenmnuchin1

.@USTradeRep and I concluded constructive trade talks in Beijing. I look forward to welcoming China’s Vice Premier Liu He to continue these important discussions in Washington next week.

And yet, while traders saw this as signs of optimism, the reality is that this was only necessary because the two sets of drafts appeared to differ substantially, and the focus on the joint wording “has become a key issue after U.S. officials complained that Chinese versions of the text had walked back or omitted commitments made by negotiators.” The two sides have very different understandings of certain words, according to one of the officials, who noted that China’s Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen started his career as a translator at the ministry.

As always expect lots of noise on the trade front and little to no signal, although markets will look for any excuse to window dress stocks sharply higher today. Sure enough, futures on the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones all rose, and despite recent turbulence, the S&P 500 gained 12.3% so far this quarter, on pace for the best quarterly performance since 2009.

The MSCI World Index was up 0.17% on the day, and was set to post its best quarterly performance since March 2012

European markets opened higher, with the European STOXX 600 index up 0.4 percent. France’s CAC 40 index led gains, up 0.77 percent, while Britain’s FTSE 100 index was up 0.6 percent. Germany’s DAX rose 0.4 percent with miners and retailers leading the way higher.

Earlier, stocks rose across Asia, with China stocks leading gains across regional equity markets with U.S.-China trade talks underway in Beijing; Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indexes both on course for their best quarter since 2014; The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 9% in 1Q.

“Our base case is for the current tariff truce extension to yield only a partial resolution, including select U.S. tariff rollbacks in exchange for some Chinese concessions on imports, market access and intellectual property,” strategists at UBS wrote in a note to clients.

European sovereign bond yield were marginally higher and the euro slumped even as German unemployment fell to a fresh record low.  Even so, German and French government bond yields were poised on for their biggest monthly falls since June 2016, ending a month where heightened anxiety about global growth prospects have sparked a flood into fixed income globally.

“We have moved a lot in the last two weeks so there is a bit of pause for now,” said Pooja Kumra, European rates strategist, TD Securities.

In the US, the 10Y Treasury yield edged up to 2.4263% from a 15-month low of 2.352% touched on Thursday after an almost relentless fall since the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone last week sparked worries about the U.S. economic outlook, after Thursday’s latest Q4 GDP revision showed U.S. economic growth was slower than initially thought growing a revised 2.2% from an earlier reading of 2.6%.

In overnight central bank news, Fed’s Bullard said the normalization process in US is at an end and suggested they have gone as far as they can. Bullard also commented that it is premature to consider a rate cut now and that he sees a likely rebound in economic growth during Q2 and the rest of 2019.

In the latest Brexit news, UK House of Commons speaker selects no amendments for debate today. A UK government source confirmed they were laying a motion to give MPs a vote on the withdrawal agreement only for Friday without the political declaration on the future relationship between the EU and the UK, while a government source said the vote to approve the withdrawal agreement would meet the EU’s test to extend A50 to May 22nd and is said to be substantially different to MV3. UK government ministers privately suggested a general election will be called if Friday’s vote is rejected or things “fall apart”, according HuffPost’s Paul Waugh. Elsewhere, there were comments from House Speaker Bercow that the new government motion meets his tests and only covers withdrawal agreement, while Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn reports it will occur at 14:30GMT/10:30EDT. In any case, there is little expectation in the EU today that the Withdrawal Agreement will pass and as such, the EU mood is one of resignation now, according to BBC’s Adler. However, a last minute burst of optimism emerged after SNP’s Gray says some Labour MP’s are preparing to back PM May’s agreement.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its best week in seven amid stronger equity markets and optimism about a possible U.S.-China trade agreement. Quarter-end flows clouded the short-term outlook in the major currencies, providing choppy price action at times. The euro was initially lower, sliding as much as 1.121, before rebounding sharply to $1.1235, following speculation that today’s Brexit vote just may pass; even so it was headed for its worst month since October, weighed down by fears about economic growth and cautious signals from the European Central Bank. The Euro has also been weighed down by speculation the ECB will introduce a tiered deposit rate, providing a sign that policymakers plant to keep interest rates low for longer.

The Turkish lira continued its slid, dropping 1.7%, a day after it had plunged 4 percent. President Tayyip Erdogan blamed the currency’s weakness on attacks by the West ahead of nationwide local elections on Sunday. TD Securities recommended a lira short whereby it urged clients to buy USDTRY calls targeting 7.9 after this weekend’s elections pass.

The big mover, however, was the British pound, which fired slumped as low as $1.3004 after sliding more than 1 percent the previous day, before rebounding sharply higher above 1.31 on speculation that some Labour MPs may back May’s deal. It looks like it will be another nailbiter until the end.

Sterling had taken a knock as the prospect of a swift agreement on Brexit faded with the British parliament yet again failing to agree on a way forward.

In commodities, oil extended gains as the OPEC+ coalition’s production cuts supported prices, putting crude markets on track for their biggest quarterly rise since 2009. WTI trade at $59.76 per barrel, up 0.8 percent on the day and recovering from Thursday’s low of $58.20.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,832.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 378.18
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at -0.068%
  • Euro up 0.06% to $1.1228
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $68.08/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.2 bps to 2.132%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.086%
  • MXAP up 0.6% to 159.47
  • MXAPJ up 0.7% to 527.75
  • Nikkei up 0.8% to 21,205.81
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,591.64
  • Hang Seng Index up 1% to 29,051.36
  • Shanghai Composite up 3.2% to 3,090.76
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 38,595.64
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.08% to 6,180.73
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,140.67
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $68.08/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,288.79
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.05% to 97.25

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Chinese and U.S. negotiators are working line-by-line through the text of an agreement that can be put before President Donald Trump and counterpart Xi Jinping to defuse a nearly year-long trade war, according to officials familiar with the matter
  • Theresa May is putting the main part of her divorce deal back to Parliament on Friday, after a dramatic promise to quit if it gets approved. Her pledge has changed the arithmetic, but probably not enough
  • London continued to lead the U.K.’s weakening property market at the start of 2019, with values falling the most since the financial crisis a decade ago
  • German unemployment fell to a fresh record low, suggesting that the country’s buoyant services sector is offsetting weakness in manufacturing
  • Russia and Iran’s energy ministers will discuss a possible extension of the OPEC+ agreement to curb oil production when they meet in Moscow next week
  • As Treasury issuance outstrips crisis-era records, the rising share of government bonds in market-weighted fixed-income indexes is pulling in more global investors

Asian equity markets were higher across the board as the region took impetus from the US, where all major indices finished positive and trade-sensitive sectors outperformed on optimism as US-China high-level talks resumed in Beijing. ASX 200 (+0.1%) eked mild gain as most sectors remained afloat heading into quarter-end although gold miners were heavily weighed after the precious metal succumbed to the pressure from a firmer greenback. Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) was driven by currency weakness with Daiichi Sankyo surging nearly 16% to hit limit up and a record high after it signed a USD 6.9bln collaboration and commercialization deal for its cancer drug with AstraZeneca in which it will receive an upfront payment of USD 1.35bln. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.0%) conformed to the upbeat tone and the Shanghai Comp. (+3.2%) outperformed as trade discussions continued in Beijing and after China announced electricity and fuel costs reductions ahead of incoming VAT cuts. Huawei also supported the risk appetite after it posted a 25% increase in annual profits despite the ongoing US tiff, although not all stocks benefitted as some contended with disappointing earnings including China’s largest lender ICBC which fell short of FY net forecasts after flat Q4 profits. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower as the fixed income complex eased from the rampant inflows seen this week and as gains in stocks dampened demand for safe-haven assets, although downside was limited with the BoJ also in the market for JPY 710bln of JGBs in the belly to super long-end.

Top Asian News

  • Japan’s Job Outlook Brightest in Decades. Pity About the Wages
  • Foreigners Dive Back Into China Stocks, Buy Most Since December
  • Bet on Philippine Boom Pays Off for This Top-Performing Manager
  • Jet Airways Is Said to Miss Paying $109 Million Loan From HSBC

A relatively upbeat start for European equities [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%] following on from a stellar performance in Asia, wherein the Shanghai Composite ended the week higher in excess of 3% as US-Sino talks concluded on a seemingly positive note. Broad based gains are seen across major indices, UK’s FTSE (+0.5%) is keeping its composure amid the Brexit-induced weakness in the Sterling and as heavyweight mining names benefit from the surge in base metal prices: [Antofagasta (+2.6%), Glencore (+2.4%), Anglo American (+2.1%) and Rio Tinto (+2.0%)]. Sector-wise, material names lead the gains, whilst consumer discretionary names benefit from positive broker moves for Kering (+1.4%), LVMH (+1.2%) and Richemont (+0.9%). Looking at individual movers, Wirecard (-6.9%) shares plumb the depths following yet another FT article which noted that half the company’s revenues come from partners whilst noting that at some of them there is a mismatch with reality on the ground. A Wirecard executive has noted the article in incorrect and misleading. Elsewhere, yet more trouble for Scandi banks with Swedbank (-9.5%), Nordea Bank (-9.8%) lower after New York regulators reportedly expanded money laundering scandal probe into Nordea Bank.

Top European News

  • H&M Surges as Earnings Beat Analyst Estimates on Fewer Discounts
  • Altice Jumps as Drahi’s Carrier Predicts Higher French Growth
  • Italy’s Nexi Says IPO Offering Value Seen at EU1.9b- EU2.2b
  • Pound Reverses Gains as Chance May’s Brexit Deal Passes Seen Low

In FX, USD – The Greenback remains firm overall, but has lost a bit of momentum against a few G10 and other counterparts at the start of the final trading session of the week, month and quarter as latest US-China trade talk reports suggest more progress made. However, the DXY has nudged above the 97.300 level that capped its advances yesterday and in doing so crossed a key Fib at 97.245 (76.4% retrace of the fall from 97.711 to 95.735), which bodes well from a chart standpoint ahead of potentially pivotal data including Chicago PMI and a trio of Fed speakers (Williams, Kaplan and Quarles).

  • NZD/AUD/CAD – Bucking the broad trend on the aforementioned constructive US-China vibes, but with the Kiwi also getting a much needed fillip from ANZ’s consumer sentiment survey overnight showing an improvement in March. Nzd/Usd rebounded to just over 0.6800 at one stage, but then pared gains on more dovish RBNZ impulses, albeit indirectly as JPM updated its 2019 outlook for NZ rates with back-to-back cuts now seen in May and June. Similar story for the Aussie that briefly reclaimed 0.7100 before fading, while the Loonie is still relatively rangebound between 1.3420-45 ahead of Canadian PPI data.
  • JPY/EUR/CHF/GBP – All softer vs the Usd, with the Jpy extending its retreat from a fraction shy of 110.00 to circa 110.92 amidst reports of Japanese selling for FY end on top of the general improvement in risk sentiment. However, supply is said to be sitting at 111.00 and the recent 110.96 peak is still providing technical resistance. The single currency is holding just above 1.1200 with buying interest touted from 1.1210 down to the figure and decent option expiry interest also supporting as 1.5 bn rolls off at the NY cut vs 1.2 bn from 1.1250-60. The Franc is essentially flat vs the Buck and Euro around 0.9950 and within 1.1190-65 parameters respectively following SNB comments on Thursday reinforcing the commitment to maintain NIRP and intervention given the Chf’s ongoing high valuation and fragility in the currency markets. Last, but by no means least heading into yet another crucial Brexit vote in the HoC, the Pound is depressed with Cable almost losing the 1.3000 handle despite a big buy order at 1.3010 and Eur/Gbp pivoting 0.8600 where a sizeable 1 bn expiries reside and run-off only 30 minutes or so before the Parliament decide whether to back the WA.
  • EM – In contrast to partial recoveries elsewhere, the Lira has lurched to new lows vs the Dollar not far from 5.6600 as the run continues almost relentlessly, and with little last respite from a narrower than forecast Turkish trade deficit.

In commodities, WTI (+0.8%) and Brent (+0.6%) futures are on the front foot thus far amid the overall positive risk sentiment around the market as US-China talks are to continue next week after concluding in Beijung on a positive note. WTI futures extended gains above USD 59.00/bbl and remain in relatively close proximity to USD 60.00/bbl whilst Brent futures reside around USD 67.50/bbl. In the month of March, Brent Crude advanced around 1.6% whilst WTI crude posted gains in excess of 4%. In terms of recent energy news-flow Russian Energy Minister denied the report that Russia will only agree to extend output cut deal by 3 months and said Russia and Iran potential extension of OPEC+ deal. This follows source reports yesterday that OPEC and Russia could agree to a 3-month extension of the current agreement at the June meeting. Elsewhere, Gold ekes mild gains following yesterday’s slump below USD 1300/oz. Meanwhile, copper and iron are extending on earlier gains as optimism surrounding trade talks bolster the base metals. Russia Energy Minister denies report that Russia will only agree to extend output cut deal by 3 months and said Russia and Iran potential extension of OPEC+ deal. (Newswires) This follows source reports yesterday that OPEC and Russian could agree to a 3-month extension of the current agreement at the June meeting.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%; Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior -0.5%
  • 8:30am: PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.4%, prior 1.7%; PCE Core YoY, est. 1.9%, prior 1.9%
  • 9:45am: MNI Chicago PMI, est. 61, prior 64.7
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 619,500, prior 607,000; New Home Sales MoM, est. 2.06%, prior -6.9%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97.8, prior 97.8; Mich. Current Conditions, prior 111.2; Expectations, prior 89.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the last business day of Q1, a quarter that most market participants will remember more fondly than Q4 2018. Craig is skiing at the moment but assuming he’s not like me and doesn’t get injured every time he steps foot on the snow, he’ll be doing the usual performance review when he’s back on Monday. Today is also the day that 1008 days after the Brexit vote, the UK was supposed to leave the EU. However if I had to make a spread as to how many more days the UK will continue to be in the EU I don’t think I’d quite know where to start. Anywhere from 14 to infinity. I’m happy to trade on this spread if anyone wants to. I’ve ordered a bit of furniture for our new house from Italy and yesterday I enquired as to when it might arrive. The guy on the other end of the phone then proceeded to tell me that there was something called Brexit that was going on and told me all about how it was going, his views on every politician involved, and that the risks to his business (and to my table) of a no deal Brexit. By the end of the conversation I was none the wiser about when it will arrive. Suffice to say that if you’re reading this in Italy and you need a new table and there’s a no deal Brexit, then I may be in a position to do business.

Today we will get a fresh vote on the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) at about 2:30pm but only the WA part and not the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship as with the two previous votes. Maybe I’ll get my chairs but not my table then. The government hopes that by separating out the two, the WA could have a greater chance of success. Furthermore, it satisfies Speaker Bercow’s criteria that the vote must be on something different to last time. The other thing it satisfies is the EU’s criteria from their European Council meeting last week that in order to get an extension of the Brexit deadline from the 12 April to 22 May (the day before the European Parliament elections begin), the House of Commons just needs to approve the WA.

However, it’s not obvious that this will help the government win, with Labour’s shadow Brexit Secretary, Sir Keir Starmer, saying that if the two were separated, “that would mean leaving the EU with absolutely no idea where we’re heading. That cannot be acceptable, and we wouldn’t vote for that.” And on the other side, one of the main reasons the ERG and DUP MPs have been opposed to the deal has been the backstop, which is a part of the WA.

Another issue is that this risks complicating the ratification process, as in UK law under the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, to ratify the WA it requires that both the WA and the framework for the future relationship have been approved in a motion by the House of Commons. Therefore, unless new legislation were passed that changed this requirement, the political declaration on the future relationship would still need to be approved in a motion by the House of Commons before the WA could be ratified. Maybe the benchmark for any defeat today will be how it compares to the indicative votes supporting a second referendum and the Customs Union – the two that got closest to a majority.

Sterling weakened against every other G10 currency yesterday (-1.10% vs USD but +0.2% this morning), although other UK assets performed strongly, with sterling’s decline supporting the FTSE 100 (+0.56%) to outperform other European indices yesterday, while UK 10yr gilt yields fell -1.2bps yesterday, the only major European country to see ten-year debt yields fall.

In the US-China trade negotiations, Trade Representative Lighthizer and Secretary Mnuchin will be continuing talks today, before China’s Vice Premier, Liu He, returns to Washington for further talks next week. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has said overnight that they had a “very productive” working dinner yesterday with Chinese negotiators. National Economic Council Director Kudlow said yesterday that they are willing to extend the talks if necessary, saying that “If it takes a few more weeks, or if it takes months, so be it.” Kudlow also addressed the Commerce Department’s report on auto tariffs, which President Trump is currently reviewing. A decision on whether or not to impose broad import tariffs on the sector was supposed to come within 90 days of the report’s submission. That would put the deadline at May 19 for an announcement, but Kudlow said that Trump “could take longer” to reach a final decision.

Asian markets are responding to the Mnuchin headline and the positive Wall Street lead this morning with China’s bourses leading the advance – the Shanghai Comp (+2.54%), CSI (+3.21%) and Shenzhen Comp (+2.60%) are all up. The Nikkei (+0.78%), Hang Seng (+0.77%) and Kospi (+0.42%) are also up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.18%. In terms of overnight data releases, we saw Japan’s February industrial production in line with consensus at +1.4% mom, marking the first gain after three consecutive negative readings while the February unemployment rate came in at 2.3% yoy (vs. 2.5% yoy expected), matching the 25 year low set in May 2018. February retail sales came in at +0.2% mom (vs. +1.0% mom expected) with an upward revision to the previous month to -1.8% mom from -2.3% mom. South Korea’s February industrial production was at -2.6% mom (vs. -0.7% mom expected), the largest decline since February 2017, due to a drop in the production of cars and transportation equipment. Meanwhile the UK’s March GfK consumer confidence number was unchanged compared to prior month at -13 (vs. -14 expected).

Before this US equities advanced yesterday perhaps helped by some slightly positive real-time economic data (more below). The S&P 500, DOW, and NASDAQ rose +0.36%, +0.36%, and +0.34%, with gains fairly broad-based. The main laggard was utilities, as rising rates pressured the bond-proxy sectors. Earlier in the day, European indexes had a mostly negative day, with the STOXX 600 down -0.12%, though the DAX did eke out a +0.08% gain. Bund and treasury yields rose +1.2bps and +2.3bps, respectively, and the US move was encouragingly driven entirely by inflation breakevens. The 10y breakeven rate rose +3.3bps, its biggest rise since January, though at 1.86%, it’s likely still a bit low for the Fed to be completely comfortable. Notably, Japanese 10-year yields are down to -0.094%. The Bank of Japan’s stated policy is to keep them “around zero percent,” so they’re approaching the edge of the potential policy range, though it’s not clear how concerned the BoJ would be at falling yields, as opposed to rising yields.

Early yesterday, President Trump asked in a tweet that “OPEC increase the flow of Oil” because “price of Oil (is) getting too high.” That initially caused WTI oil prices to drop -2.04%, but they subsequently retraced higher as the session continued to end the day near flat at $59.38 per barrel. Energy sector stocks performed in-line with the broader index, rising +0.37%. The rebound was especially striking, since it coincided with a further rally for the dollar, with the DXY index gaining +0.47%. That sent an index of emerging market currencies to its lowest level since January 3, falling -0.16% on the day.

The Turkish Lira plunged again against the dollar, down -4.16% yesterday to reach 5.5603. The central bank announced that its foreign exchange reserves rose by $2.4bn last week, easing some concerns that it was using up its firepower trying to prevent currency depreciation, which helped the currency strengthen around +1.07% off its trough. Funding markets normalized a bit, with overnight liquidity back down to 32%, down from Wednesday’s peak of over 1,300%. This morning lira is down further -0.43%.

Turning to the Fed Speakers, James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, said that he expects growth to rebound in second-quarter after a sluggish start to the year while adding that calls for a rate cut were “premature.” Elsewhere, John Williams, president of the New York Fed, said that “the most likely case” was for U.S. growth of 2% with the economy continuing to add jobs amid low unemployment and added that “I still see the probability of a recession this year or next year as being not elevated relative to any year.” On inversion of the yield curve, he said that “there’s a lot of reasons to think that it has been a recession predictor for reasons in the past that kind of don’t apply today,” and “I think it’s telling us that growth will be pretty modest” in the U.S. and global economies going forward.

Data releases were mixed yesterday but there was some positive more real-time signs in the US. US Q4 GDP saw a downward revision to an annualised QoQ rate of 2.2% (vs. 2.6% in the previous estimate), while the personal consumption reading was revised down to 2.5% from 2.8%. Pending home sales also fell by -1.0% in February (vs. -0.5% expected), bringing the YoY total to -5.0%. However, initial jobless claims came in beneath expectations at 211k (vs. 220k expected), the lowest reading in nine weeks, while the previous reading was also revised down by 5k. Furthermore, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index rose sharply to 10 in March (vs. 0 expected), with the 9 point increase being the largest since December 2016.

In the Eurozone, the economic sentiment indicator released by the European Commission fell once again in March, reaching 105.5 (vs. 105.9 expected), its lowest level since October 2016 and the 9th consecutive monthly decline. Meanwhile, German consumer prices rose by 1.5% in March (vs. 1.6% expected), the lowest level for 11 months. It’ll be interesting to see whether today’s French and Italian inflation data and Monday’s for the Eurozone paint a similar picture.

Looking to the day ahead, we have the latest big Brexit vote as well as more trade talks in Beijing between the US and China. It’s also another busy day for data. From Europe, we’ve got French and Italian CPI readings for March, in Germany we’ve got February’s retail sales figures and March’s change in unemployment, and from the UK, we’ll get the latest reading of Q4 GDP, along with February’s mortgage approvals, consumer credit, and M4 money supply. From the US, we’ll get the final University of Michigan sentiment reading for March, personal income for February, personal spending for January, the MNI Chicago PMI for March, along with February’s new home sales. In Canada, we’ll get January’s GDP figure.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 95.82 POINTS OR 3.20% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 276.15 POINTS OR 0.96%  /The Nikkei closed UP 172.85 POINTS OR 0.82%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.08%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.124 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 58.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.05 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7134 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7228 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

China is testing long range missiles from a concealed ship. The Israelis were also  working on something like this

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Testing Long-Range Cruise Missile Fired From Concealed Ship Container

Could the next great Chinese advanced missile threat come disguised as an innocuous looking shipping transport vessel? A new report in The Washington Free Beacon suggests so, as it details China’s new long-range cruise missile which can be launched directly from a shipping container device, which is meant to conceal detection of the threat right up until the moment of launch.

Alarmingly, it’s already being flight tested, according to analysts cited in the report, which further finds the technology “could turn Beijing’s large fleet of freighters into potential warships and commercial ports into future missile bases.” If cruise missiles can be hidden in international shipping containers, China could be a major threat to western targets simply as it moves millions of tons of goods every year.

 

A Russian previously unveiled a similar weapon system in the international arms market called the Club K cruise missile system.

Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, told the Free Beacon, “Shipping container missile launchers can be smuggled through ports or via highway ports of entry and stored for years in a climate-controlled building within range of U.S. military based and taken out when needed for military operations.”

“Potentially, Chinese missile launching containers could be stored near the Port of Seattle, waiting for the day they can launch an electromagnetic pulse warhead-armed missiles over the Bangor nuclear ballistic missile submarine base,” he speculated.

The concealed nature of a launch-ready long-range missile also presents the nightmare scenario of ease of proliferation to rogue actors such as Iran or North Korea.  “Containerized missiles give China, Russia, and its rogue state partners new options for directly or indirectly for attacking the United States and its allies,” Fisher added.

However, it should be noted that a defense company in Russia appears to have been the first to develop and market shipping container weapons nearly a decade ago. Yet even at that time analysts began to worry of that Russian private sector defense technology development, “Unless sales are very tightly controlled, there is a danger that it could end up in the wrong hands.”

The new missile being developed as part of the container-launch device program is said to be a variant of an advanced anti-ship missile called YJ-18C, according to US defense officials cited in the report.

 

Israel has also for years been developing a similar container launch system for a short range ballistic missile, called the “LORA”.

One career US military officer and former Pacific Fleet intelligence chief described how a container concealed Chinese cruise missile could be a game changer in terms of assessing threats near US waters and ports:

Retired Navy Capt. Jim Fanell, a former Pacific Fleet intelligence chief, said a containerized YJ-18 anti-ship cruise missile would add a significant threat to the Navy given the volume of Chinese container ships that enter U.S. ports on the west and east coast, well within range of the vast majority of the U.S. fleet.

“If this capability is confirmed, it will require a completely new screening regime for all PRC flagged commercial ships bound for U.S. ports,” Fanell said.

Additionally the container-launched missiles could be targeted in foreign ports used by Chinese-flagged merchant vessels.

On that front, Washington military planners say there is much to be concerned about. One adviser and research professor at the US Army War College described China’s military activities in Latin America and the Caribbean as “extensive”.

A Russian company had previously simulated how its “container weapons” systems would operate.

Professor R. Evan Ellis said that during a conflict, “China’s substantial commercial base, its access to ports, and its military-to-military contacts in the Caribbean might prove useful,” as cited in the Free Beacon.

“All of these add up to growing Chinese influence in a region located close to the U.S. as well as its most important Atlantic coast military facilities,” he added.

The report noted that Israel has also for years been developing a similar container launch system for a short range ballistic missile, called the “LORA”.

end

Huawei profits soar in 2018 along with revenue despite the uSA shutdown its products. The Chairman tells Washington to drop its “loser attitude”

(courtesy zerohedge)

Huawei Profits Soar in 2018; Chairman Tells Washington To “Drop Its Loser Attitude”

When it first launched its global lobbying campaign to shut Chinese telecoms giant Huawei out of the West, Washington was probably, in retrospect, feeling a little overconfident. After a ban on selling American-made components to ZTE (another Chinese telecoms giant) nearly precipitated the company’s collapse, a coordinated smear campaign – including the arrest of one of the company’s top executives, a pair of criminal indictments, and a ban on selling its products in the US – designed to weaken Huawei’s 5G leadership should at least have curbed the company’s torrid revenue and profit growth.

Huawei

Unfortunately for rival US telecoms giants, America couldn’t have been more wrong, as the Wall Street Journal pointed out.

Though Huawei is a privately held company, it has made a habit of releasing earnings figures. And the numbers from 2018 are simply staggering. Despite being effectively shut out of the US and several of its allies in the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance (Australia and New Zealand), Huawe’s revenue for 2018 rose 20% to 721.2 billion yuan ($107 billion) from 603.6 billion yuan a year earlier. Meanwhile, net income for 2018 rose 25% to 59.3 billion yuan.

Huawei

Heaping more embarrassment on the US, the EU, one of Washington’s staunchest “allies”, earlier this week refused to call for a ban or any restrictions on Huawei’s products. This after the UK and Germany had declared Huawei’s telecoms equipment suitable to be used in the country’s soon-to-be-built 5G infrastructure.

Although Huawei saw a slight dip (1.3%) in its carrier business, Huawei rotating chairman Guo Ping said this dip was expected, as company’s hold off on repairs and upkeep before breaking ground on their new 5G networks. The company recorded rapid growth in its consumer business, which includes smartphones, and its enterprise cloud-computing business.  In a major milestone for the company, its smartphone shipments rose 35% last year to 206 million units, making Huawei the world’s second largest supplier of handsets.

Despite Washington’s ‘national security threat’ warnings, Huawei won 30 new 5G contracts from carriers in 2018. The company recently won contracts from customers in South Korea and the UAE.

Guo, who has never shied away from mocking the US, celebrated the company’s numbers by lobbing yet another insult Washington’s way, as Reuters reported, Guo said he hoped the US government would drop its “loser’s attitude” and drop its smear camapign.

“The U.S. government has a loser’s attitude. It wants to smear Huawei because it cannot compete against Huawei,” Guo Ping said. President Trump is going to love hearing that.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

BREXIT/EU\\

Mark Mobius of Templeton fame describes the deteriorating financial conditions inside the uK..their balance of payments is awful accompanied by huge debt.  He feels that once the tether is broken from the EU, the country will be forced to raise rates to keep funds in the country. He feels that there is a risk of a downgrade in their sovereign debt

(courtesy Mark Mobius/zerohedge)

 

Mark Mobius: Brexit Has Turned UK Into “An Emerging Market Economy” 

With all hell breaking loose in Turkey this week, one would think Mark Mobius, the pioneering portfolio manager who launched one of the first EM-focused funds more than 30 years ago, would be focusing his attention on an issue more germane to his area of expertise – like whether Turkey’s deteriorating financial position might breed contagion – or something along those lines.

Mobius

Instead, he’s become the latest standard-bearer for “Project Fear”, warning during an interview with the FT that the UK already resembles an “emerging economy” and that the situation will only get worse once it finally departs the EU – particularly if it does so without a. deal.

The UK is like an emerging market now. Their balance of payments is terrible; their government debt is terrible; their fiscal debt is terrible,” said Mr Mobius, who spent most of his career working for the US asset manager Franklin Templeton.

Subtly equating the UK with Greece and Portugal, Mobius argued that once the UK leaves the EU, ratings agencies will be forced to downgrade its sovereign credit rating once it no longer can “ride the coattails” of the trade bloc.

“Up to now, the UK is riding on the coat-tails of the EU, in the sense that [the UK] can have very low interest rates,” Mr Mobius told the FT at an event in New York this week hosted by the Emerging Markets Investors Alliance.

“As soon as they break, people are going to start looking hard and fast. The rating agencies will say ‘wait a minute, no more EU association? We’ve got to downgrade.'”

But getting at the real reasons behind his antipathy toward Brexit, Mobius lamented the fact that the UK might lose its status as a center for emerging market countries, thanks to its dominance in global FX markets, and the fact that many companies based in emerging markets list their shares in the UK. As it stands, Mobius can just hang out in London and “these people will come to us”. But that could easily change.

“The unfortunate thing for us in emerging markets is that the UK is really a centre for emerging countries for [public] listings or for company meetings,” Mr Mobius said.

“We can sit in London and these people will come to us.” 

If the UK leaves without a deal, some 5,500 UK businesses would lose their “passporting” privileges – meaning they would need to deal with a separate set of regulatory guidelines to do business in the EU. If the UK leaves wiithout a deal, Mobius said his firm would likely leave London for “Paris, Munich or somewhere else.”

“We’ll have to go to Paris, Munich or somewhere else in the EU,” Mr Mobius said of his firm.

“I would like to go to Spain. I want warm weather.”

Does Mobius really feel that the British people “made a mistake” when they voted for Brexit? Or is he just cranky that his firm might face a heap of new regulatory hurdles and might need to move?

 

END
UK/8 AM
the pound surges this morning on reports that Dominic Raab may join May and vote in the affirmative. I do not think that this would be good for Britain..it would be far better to have a Brexit without a deal and let the country make their own deals on trade
(courtesy zerohedge)

Pound Surges, Erasing Earlier Losses, As Former Brexit Secretary Backs Deal

Update (7:07 am ET): The pound just won’t stop…up 80 pips and counting…

GBP

For those who are catching up on all the Brexit drama that has unfolded over the past 24 hours, here’s a quick recap courtesy of Ransquawk:

*LONG STORY SHORT: The Brexit deal PM May brought forth is essentially made up of two parts, the Withdrawal agreement (which sets out the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU) and the Political Declaration (which outlines the shape of future UK-EU relations). To get around House Speaker Bercow’s requirements of a “changed” deal to be put for a third vote, PM May decided to split the deal and only vote on the first part, i.e. the WA.

*TODAY’S SCHEDULE [GMT]

14:30 – Vote on the Withdrawal Agreement
*AMENDMENTS: House Speaker Bercow has selected no amendments for debate in Parliament today

*WHAT PM MAY NEEDS

NUMBERS: For PM May to get majority for her deal, she needs to:
Retain all 242 existing votes

Win over all 75 opponents in her own party, including 69 Brexiteers (5 already indicated they will oppose it, one Tory MP abstained from MV2, a vote which could give PM a majority of 2)

For every Tory MP who opposes the deal, PM May needs one MP from another party or two opponents willing to abstain
Total excludes the 4 tellers, 3 deputy speakers, 7 Sinn Fein MPs

*WHAT IS EXPECTED:

PM May is expected to again be defeated in Parliament as she is unlikely to conjure up support from Labour and DUP (who have confirmed they will vote against the WA). There is still no confirmed direction from the ERG, although the group has said that they are likely to follow the DUP’s lead.

Cabinet sources have also noted that the WA is unlikely to pass as there is not enough time to get the votes.

MPs claim that just 12 hardcore Tory ERG MPs are left opposing PM May’s deal; according to Sun’s Deputy Political Editor Steve Hawkes
A UK Minister reportedly believes that PM May’s WA will be voted down by 20 votes; according to Mail on Sunday’s Deputy Political Editor Cole

Sun’s Steve Hawks notes suggestions that former Brexit Minister Dominic Raab will back PM May’s Withdrawal Agreement

There is little expectation in the EU today that the Withdrawal Agreement will pass

*WHAT HAPPENS NEXT:

BREXIT DATE: In the event the deal passes, Brexit date will be moved to 22nd May as agreed with the European Commission in Strasbourg. If not, the date remains as April 12th. (See below for possible scenarios). BBC’s Katya Adler noted that if UK chooses no deal, EU very unlikely to insist 12 April date to leave. It will likely choose 22 May as cut off date. This still separates Brexit from European Parliamentary elections (they start 23 May) but leaves extra time to better finalise no deal preparations.

GENERAL ELECTION: UK government ministers privately suggested a general election will be called if Friday’s vote is rejected or things “fall apart”, according HuffPost’s Paul Waugh

* * *

Update (6:50 pm ET): In a stunning turnaround, the pound has surged to a session high, erasing its losses for the day, on reports that Dominic Raab, May’s former Brexit Secretary, who famously resigned in November rather than endorse the withdrawal agreement that May had negotiated with the European Union, is planning to back her deal.

There have also been reports that some Labour MPs are planning to back May’s deal, defying their party’s stated opposition.

Earlier, it was estimated that the deal would be defeated by about 25 votes. But given that Raab could presumably carry some MPs with him, and the prospect of more Labour defections, traders are finding a renewed sense of optimism that Theresa May might just pull it off.

GBP

* * *

The British pound dropped sharply on the morning of “the day that should have been Brexit” after a Labour Party spokesman confirmed that the opposition party would oppose PM Theresa May’s “meaningful vote 2.5”, setting the third vote on May’s unpopular withdrawal deal with the EU up for almost certain failure.

Sterling dropped to $1.3009, leaving it down roughly 2% for March, though it remained, no pun intended, up 2% on the quarter, making it the best performer among major currencies.

That might come as a surprise to some, seeing as the public has been treated to one Brexit-related disappointment after the next, with May’s deal having already been voted down twice by wide margins. Just this pass week, an indicative vote on possible Brexit alternatives showed that not one would received majority support in the Commons.

May and her team have warned MPs that if her deal is defeated again on Friday, they will risk delaying Brexit by months or even years. Then again, there’s also the risk that the UK will crash out of the EU (though May and her team have largely glossed over that possibility). International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said Friday that losing the vote would mean a longer extension to Brexit.

The DUP, the 10 unionist MPs from Northern Ireland who help shore up the Tories Parliamentary majority, have already said they will oppose the vote. And many of the ERG leaders, including Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg who said earlier this week that they would back the deal to prevent a longer Brexit delay have flipped-flopped on their stance.

In order to meet Speaker John Bercow’s test that “substantial” alterations be made to the withdrawal agreement for it to be brought up for another vote, May decided to separate the WA from the non-binding political declaration – and EU officials confirmed that only the WA would need to be accepted for the UK to leave the EU.

Given that it’s headed for defeat, observers might wonder why May is even bothering to bring it up for another vote. In an explainer for the BBC, political editor Laura Kuenssberg explained that it’s another way for May of “extending the road before it finally runs out.”

But the vote, on what was meant to be Brexit Day, is a request to MPs to allow her to keep going, to carry on pursuing her route, with its well-documented flaws.

There’s a challenge there too, not just to her own Brexiteers but to Labour and the other opposition parties, to say “no” to a long delay to our departure from the EU, the last moment when Number 10 believes anything even approaching a timely exit can be guaranteed.

There are signs now that many Eurosceptic MPs are ready to say “yes” – not because they suddenly have realised Mrs May’s deal is perfect, but because more of them officially realise that it is the clearest break from the EU they can realistically hope for.

Yet her Northern Irish allies are not persuaded. Labour, even though they have sometimes accepted that what’s on the table – the divorce deal – will never be unpicked by the EU, will still, in the main, resist.

As things stand, even though some influential Brexiteers believe there is a chance it will get through, it looks like the prime minister is heading for another loss.

But for Number 10, it is another way of extending the road before it finally runs out.

And in this environment, with control slipping away, that, for Theresa May, is worth a try.

No amendments have been selected for debate before the vote, which is expected to take place at 10:30 am ET (2:30 pm London Time).

END

Bill Blain on the Brexit and Boeing..

a must read…

(courtesy Bill Blain)

Blain: When This Insane Monetary Experiment Ends You Will Have Zero Chance To Exit

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

This is the day the UK isn’t exiting Europe. Surprised? Not really.

Think I’ll try something different this morning – a review of the week touching on some of the key themes we should be thinking about. Let me know what you think.

But firstly let me apologise for the lack of porridge this week. On Wednesday it was being unable to find anywhere to sit with a computer in London City Airport. Yesterday it was courtesy of Flybe from Edinburgh – I’d like to thank them for leaving us standing in a cold bus while they tried to rustle up a crew. The BA flight took off on time, although I wonder if it went to Dusseldorf?

Let me start with a rant:

Bond Yields and the END OF ABSALOOTLEY EVERYTHING…

While everyone is panicking about US curve inversion and the possibility it is signalling recession, is the real issue even simpler and more obvious? Should we be worried about tumbling global bond yields? Aside from it being impossible for funds to meet long term liabilities, what’s not to like about lower for longer? Actually – quite a lot. Even the ECB has noticed zero bond yields haven’t exactly stimulated growth and jobs across Europe and done nothing in terms of stimulating inflation.

Equities seem blithely unconcerned despite all the cack about trade-wars, rising political anarchy, and a distinct feel this business cycle is likely to wind-down into a slough of earnings downgrades and suchlike unpleasantness. The smart money is not worried, because they understand the truth – there is nothing to worry about BECAUSE A STOCK MARKET MELTDOWN IS ACTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE!

Apparently the taxi firm that isn’t Uber is going to IPO at $72 bln, a phenomenal $25 bln valuation, beating all records as the company getting the most money for losing the most money ever…  Why? (Clue the answer is not because Lyft and Uber will be an unbeatable oligopoly – they will probably eat each other, and I have 4 different taxi apps on my phone and none are UBER!)
Nope. The reason is because when bond yields are zero, then stocks become more attractive because they not only offer the potential of dividend yields but also the HOPE of stock price upside. As a result, even the most fantastical, utterly hat-stand, loss-making off the wall crazy as a Mad Fox, Unicorn proposition looks attractive if/when the stock price is likely to rise… (But, remember: Hope is never a good strategy.)

Forget reality – in today’s world equities are all and only about the stock price. And you can square that equation when Global Central Banks can’t afford to admit all their monetary experimentation has been about as much use as tea strainer bailing on the Titanic. The reality is the non-normalisation of monetary policy leaves every single fundamental thing I thought I understood about markets; valuations, yields, risks and returns to be wrong. Utterly.

Central banks are complicit in the illusion – understanding the brutal reality of what their monetary experimentation has led to: a world where the most sensible corporate investment is buying back stock, and stock markets can’t be allowed to fall, because such a collapse in sentiment would utterly undo the little financial good zero interest rates created. Ouch.. “Its a rat trap baby, and you been caught!”

My only recommendation would be in such a mad, mad, mad world… fill yet boots….

There is no point in worrying today about stuff you will have to worry about tomorrow: if and when the illusion ends, you will have zero chance of being able to exit, because concurrent with insane monetary policy experimentation and distortion, global regulators decided they’d better get in on the act and thus they stepped in to regulate markets to prevent a repeat of 2008. So they introduced new rules and killed liquidity, made hedging irrelevant, and turned markets from being vibrant centres of wealth creation into despondent job creation schemes for compliance officers.

THE FUTURE OF FINANCE AND INVESTMENT

I was up in Edinburgh earlier this week, at Heriot-Watt University’s Centre for Finance and Investment. I’m hoping to become an advisor to the centre. I’d see my mission as altering today’s graduate and post-graduate students to the dangers of regulation, monetary experimentation, but, when all around in financial assets is distorted, especially the opportunities inherent in my alternative assets investments! Get them young I say.. give me the boys and girls today and I shall give you tomorrow’s CIOs!

One of the areas we discussed were ideas for research projects – and that’s particularly interesting; for instance turning around my long held belief that firms with large cash piles tend to underperform because their management lack the imagination to deploy money effectively – empirical research demonstrates they’ve actually outperformed in recent years.

Discussing research ideas with the Centre’s advisory board through up lots of fascinating ideas, concepts and approaches. Topics ranged across the board – from the underperformance of Absolute Return Funds, Corporate Governance and Behavioural Bias, The Woodford Effect, Private Equity distortions, liquidity and a host of other stuff including the promotion of gender equality across finance.

Very happy to hear ideas from readers on areas for academic research – I’ll feed the sensible ones to the centre.

BOEING – A MORE FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE?

A few weeks ago Boeing stock tumbled in the wake of the second B737 MAX crash. Then the price stabilised, waiting for the investigative reports to come in. Markets took the view the situation would quickly be fixed, the production run of over 5000 aircraft would continue, and that the 350 B-737 Max aircraft parked around the planet would be allowed to fly again.

Easier this week Boeing released a software update to the suspect MCAS stall prevention system. Yesterday officials investigating the Ethiopia crash confirmed it was broadly similar to the earlier Lion Air disaster: the MCAS system activated. The  Ethiopian Airlines flight crashed soon after. 346 people died in the two related disasters.

We know that in the Lion Air the crew spent their last precious seconds desperately trying to find out what was wrong with their the plane from the manuals – a failed sensor meant the stall system was repeatedly pointing the nose down every 15 seconds. As they didn’t know the system was even installed, and the airline hadn’t fitted the “extra cost” warning light, the crash was inevitable.. Pilots are on the record saying crews would have less than 40 seconds to save an aircraft if the stall system went off due to a faulty system – if the crew were unprepared or unaware, then it was impossible.

You can imagine the horrific situation on the very busy flight deck where the alarms are screaming, the plane is gryating up and down the sky, the sensors are telling them the plane is flying straight and level, but the automatic stall prevention system is trying to plow the plane into the ground. They have 40 seconds to figure it out, switch off the system and resume level flight.

Boeing might be in more trouble than we think. Although Boeing reacted quickly to the first crash and warned operators of the problem, the immediate issues will include; why weren’t operators more fully informed of the system from the outset of the Max programme and did Boeing deliberately downplay the significance of the stall system so they could cut the need for additional pilot training to make their aircraft a cheaper system? The law suites are coming in.

It doesn’t help the rest of the world now distrusts the US Federal Aviation Authority – considering their oversight of Boeing to have been lax, and that they were slow to act following the second crash. While US B737 Max aircraft may be back flying in US airspace in just a few days, the rest of the world could take months to approve the Boeing fix. That has serious implications for deliveries, for current schedules, for aviation linked paper, and replacement aircraft values – call for more info.

There may be a much bigger problem.

At its root is the venerable B-737 design. The decision not to replace the 50 year old design with something new now looks a mistaken management compromise. Back in the 2000s, Boeing embarked on Project Yellowstone. It was (and may still be) Boeing’s plan to replace its ageing designs with new designs using new composite technologies, cleaner more efficient engines and other next generation design enhancements. So far only the 787 Dreamliner has come to fruition. It’s a fantastic plane.

Plans to replace the B-737 (and the 757/767 series) were dropped/postponed when Boeing decided to go for the cheaper option of simply stretching the workhorse B-737 at little bit more to produce the B-737 Max. That was great for Boeing – no need to tool up for an expensive new plane, instead, keep making something they’d already delivered 10,000 of.. they could make it cheap and cheerfully. And they could say it was a completely new plane because it incorporated modern stuff, and it was called… MAX!

The pitch-book to customers must have looked perfect: an aircraft type they already knew and flew, no need for additional expensive pilot training, no major conversion costs. And it would be pretty efficient.

But, the new design MAX is a lash-up compromise. The new fuel efficient high bypass engines have been made to fit, but only by squeezing them in and making them a little bit less efficient. The are bigger, heavier and change the trim. The undercarriage has to be bigger, upsetting the trim a little more, and was difficult to fit making it a little more less efficient. The shape and weight of bigger engines changed the design – giving a nose up position, hence the need for a stall-management system.

Its now becoming clear its not such a great proposition. Pilots apparently don’t like it – knowing what was once a thoroughbred now has the aerodynamics of a brick, a carthorse of the skies. Passengers are concerned. Airlines are cancelling orders – although Lufthansa just came in with talk of a new order. The good news for Boeing is the Airbus A320/321 series is 30 years old, and is going through a similar modernisation process – the Neo series.

Supporting Boeing is the need for 30,000 new mid-size aircraft in the next 20 years. There just are not enough planes being made.  Should they have been introducing a brand-new but expensive aircraft now to take that market? Probably. It will take years before a new plane, the B-797, is ready.

In the meantime, what happens to the 5000 B-737 Max’s currently on order? If I was an airline executive.. I would not be happy.. If I was on the Boeing board…. I’d be nervous.

end

Britain/late morning

As promised, it looks like we are heading for a no deal BREXIT

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pound Tumbles As Third Vote On Brexit Deal Fails By 58 Votes

Despite a last-minute round of defections from some Labour MPs and Tory Brexiteers, what reporters jokingly referred to as “meaningful vote 2.5” – the third vote on May’s withdrawal agreement – has been defeated 344-286, a margin of about 60 votes.

In a speech after the result, May raised the possibility of new elections. The pound tumbled on the results. “We are reaching the end of this process in this House,” May said. One way out would be holding another election.

GBP

While May said only that an election might be one option to break the impasse, opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn went further and called for a vote, and also called on May to fulfill her promise and quit, now.

In a statement, Deputy ERG Chairman Steve Baker insisted that this must be the final defeat for May’s withdrawal deal, and that the Commons must now move on and find another way – or, presumably, accept a ‘no deal’ exit.

“This must be the final defeat for Theresa May’s deal. It is finished. And we must move on.”

Cable started weakening ahead of the vote on speculation that the group of Brexiteer Tories voting against the bill would be large enough to hand May a third defeat. Reports attributed to SNP MPs about a “sizable” group of Tories massing in the ‘no’ lobby pushed the currency even lower. Early reports estimated that the vote would fail by roughly 50 votes.

May ended the debate on Friday with an impassioned speech, telling MPs that she was “prepared to leave this job earlier than I intended to secure the right outcome for our country.” She also said there would need to be a “greater involvement of Parliament” during the next phase of talks with the EU, when the two sides will hash out the details of their future relationship.

While Friday’s defeat is yet another major setback for the prime minister, who will now presumably push for a much longer Article 50 extension that could last for months or even years, the margin was better than the last two votes, indicating that May has made progress – just not enough to finally deliver Brexit.

Brexit

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

It seems that there are 5 banks in trouble with huge exposure to a Turkish failure, namey the big Italian banks Intessa and Unicredit along with the French bank BNP Paribas. I noted that Turkish foreign reserves were down 1/3 down to about 24 billion USA./  They own 261 tonnes of gold or 10 billion dollars which is included in this foreign reserve calculation.  Turkey is down to their last remaining USA dollars.

(courtesy zerohedge)

These Are The 5 Banks Most Exposed To Turkish Chaos

Despite Erdogan’s ever more desperate attempts to keep the lira elevated ahead of this weekend’s local elections, culminating with sending overnight TRY swap rates to an insane 1300% on Wednesday, consensus is now that after this weekend’s catalyst passes things will quickly go from bad to worse for Turkey as Turkish official foreign reserves plummet, putting the nation on the verge of a liquidity (and solvency, if enough foreign investors have lost faith) crisis.

This sentiment is shared not only by locals, where government data showed a panic scramble out of lira as Turkish residents increased their their hard-currency holdings for an 11th week running, the longest streak since September 2013, to a record $179 billion, but also foreigners with TD Securties strategist Cristian Maggio tempting fate (and Erdogan’s assassination squad) overnight with a recommendation to buy USDTRY calls with a 7.9 target, predicting that “attempts to maintain lira stability ahead of local elections may ultimately prove unsustainable and USD/TRY may move significantly higher when normal conditions are restored.”

In any case, the Lira has been a one way train lower ever since the Turkish Central Bank ended the idiotic experiment with crushing all foreign investor confidence by boosting swaps to mindblowing levels.

Amid the collapse in Turkish central bank reserves, the plunge in the lira and local financial assets, should a worst case scenario for Turkey materialize, questions relating to European banks exposure to Turkey have once again resurfaced as they did last summer.

Responding to these questions, and seeking to mitigate some of investor panic, overnight Goldman’s Jernej Omahen writes that the most recent data suggests:

  1. Turkey exposure of EU banks is limited in scope and scale;
  2. Contagion channel via EU banks is somewhat limited
  3. deteriorating outlook might incrementally add to (the already changing) strategies of European banks in Turkey as this is the second period of elevated volatility in Turkish assets within the past c. one year, the first being Q3-18;

With that disclaimer in mind, Goldman claims that Turkey exposure of EU banks is “limited in scope and scale” as Turkey accounted for <1% of total EAD and c.1% of Net Profit for Goldman’s EU banks coverage in 2018: of more 50 banks under Goldman coverage, five have Turkey exposure of >1% of total EAD, with gross exposure ranging from 10% of EAD for BBVA, 5% for Unicredit to 2% or less for ING (2%), BNP (2%) and ISP (1%). Also worth noting that European banks tend not to have 100% ownership of Turkish subsidiaries, so one needs to adjust for the actual shareholding.

Here is the details from Goldman:

Within our European coverage of >50 banks, 5 groups list Turkey as a meaningful exposure according to the transparency data published by the European Banking Authority (EBA). Notably, the affected banks remain relatively well diversified; although together they control roughly one-quarter of the Turkish market, their respective Turkish exposure stands on average at c.3% of consolidated EAD. While BBVA screens as an outlier, we note that similar to Unicredit and BNP, the Spanish group only holds a partial stake in the local business. For our coverage as a whole, Turkey accounted for <1% of total EAD in 2018 and c.1% of our Net Profit for 2018.

Some more details: while Bank for International Settlements (BIS) statistics do not provide name-by-name exposures, Goldman uses it to provide context for the single-name disclosure published by the European Banking Authority (EBA) as a part of a 2018 EU-wide transparency exercise. According to the BIS data, total foreign claims of the foreign banking sector against Turkey stood at  US$175bn as of the end of 3Q18 (of which Europe accounted for US$144bn), down from a peak of US$269bn at the beginning of 2016. Note that the BIS data captures private as well as public sector lending to Turkish residents as well as interbank lending.

In light of the country’s intransigent executive branch, where Erdogan has already hinted he may soon push for a rate cut, Goldman concedes that Turkish economic volatility will likely maintain a spotlight on banks present in Turkey. Yet Goldman bizarrely claims that “while the EU banks control broadly a quarter of the Turkish market, the overall risk for the European sector appears small” as  the Turkish exposure is:

  1. small, in an absolute sector context;
  2. concentrated  among a handful of larger banking groups; and
  3. represents a small fraction of these banks’ overall balance sheets – this is due to the respective Euro banks’ size, diversification and partial ownership of local units.

All in, Goldman concludes that the EU bank contagion channel is limited, however in the context of limited contagion. As a reminder, it was just last summer when Goldman calculated that beyond a certain level of the Turkish lira, the country’s local banks would collapse. If and when that happens, we strongly doubt that European banks with exposure to Turkey will find their contagion to be “limited.”

 

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

Somehow the anti stall software was mistakenly activated before the deadly crash.  Not sure what that means..

(courtesy zerohedge)

Boeing Anti-Stall Software Mistakenly Activated Before Deadly Crash, Investigators Believe

So far, Boeing executives have done a remarkable job of deflecting questions about the role Boeing’s MCAS anti-stall software played in the two plane crashes that inspired airlines around the world to ground the workhorse jets. But that’s about to get a lot harder.

Confirming widely held suspicions, investigators have reportedly determined that MCAS was active at the time Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 plunged to Earth in March 10, just minutes after taking off from an airport in Addis Ababa, according to WSJ. The report confirms what the CEO of Ethiopian Airlines told the press earlier in the week, when he said that the airline believed the software had been active at the time, though he couldn’t confirm it.

Boeing

Investigators have reached a “preliminary conclusion” that the software automatically activated, according to what they told FAA officials during a high-level briefing with the FAA on Thursday. WSJ said it is the “strongest indication yet” that the software was involved in both the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashes, which killed more than 350 people.

US air safety experts have been analyzing information from the “black boxes” recovered from ET302 for the past few days. Meanwhile, a full preliminary report from the Ethiopian authorities is expected in the next few days.

Earlier this week, Boeing announced changes to MCAS, including allowing input from two sensors instead of one. Investigators suspect faulty data from the sensor helped trigger the system. Boeing is also adding certain cockpit alerts.

Here’s an illustration of how MCAS works (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Boeing

END

 

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

INDIA

 

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1221 UP .0002 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  GREEN 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.71  UP .162 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3086    UP   0.0032  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3418 DOWN .0012 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 2 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1231 Last night Shanghai composite closed UP 95.82 POINTS OR 0.92%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 46.96  POINTS OR 3.20% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.08%// EUROPEAN BOURSES  GREEN/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED UP 172.35 POINTS OR 0.82%  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 276.15 POINTS OR 0.96%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 95.82 POINTS OR 3.20% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.08%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 173.85 POINTS OR .82% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1291.20

silver:$15.08

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.42% !!! UP 4 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.83 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.12 DOWN 8 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.25% DOWN 2  in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.08%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.10% UP 1   IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.48 UP  1    POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 138 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES  TO –.07%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.55% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1233 UP    .0002 or  2 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 110.73 UP 0.096 OR YEN DOWN 10 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3040 DOWN .13( POUND DOWN 13  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 72 basis points to 1.3428

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7121    0N SHORE  (DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7187  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6465

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.08%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.41 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2,83 UP 1  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.17 DOWN 3 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 25.51  0.77%

German Dax : UP 85.36 POINTS OR 0.75%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 43.86 POINTS OR  0.83%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 55.70 POINTS OR  0.61%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 161.79 POINTS OR 0.77%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 60.15 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 67.67 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.63  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.65 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 65 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.07 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  60.22

 

 

BRENT :  67.61

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.40… VERY DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.81..VERY DEADLY

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1219 ( DOWN 10   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.79 UP .162 (YEN DOWN 16 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.25 UP  5 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3022  DOWN 31 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.5785

the Russian rouble 65.59   DOWN .61 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 61 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3359  UP 71 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7121  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7233  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.07%

 

The Dow closed UP 211.22 POINTS OR 0.82%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 60.15POINTS OR 0.78%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.74 CLOSED DOWN .69 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.591%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.5601

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Stocks End Q1 With Best Start In 21 Years As Earnings & Bond Yields Plunge

Summarizing Q1 in one chart: Stocks soared alongside a renewed surge in global money supply as top-down and bottom-up fun-durr-mental data collapsed…

It seems the world’s central banks have re-embraced their “don’t panic” role as they see something that’s just too scary for us average joes to be told…

Global stocks and global bond yields have decoupled dramatically in Q1…

We have seen this before…and it did not end well.

 

Quite a quarter!

  • Best quarter for world stocks since 2012
  • Best quarter for US stocks since 2009
  • Best quarter for oil since 2009

And…

Chinese stocks were panic bid overnight, ending the quarter up 24% (China’s best quarter since Q4 2014, and best Q1 since 2009)…

 

European markets ended Q1 up 12.3% led by a 16.1% gain for Italy (best quarter and best Q1 since 2015)

 

Best start to a year for S&P since 1998

 

US Stocks outperfomed bonds dramatically as Gold and the dollar ended unchanged in Q1…

 

From the Mnuchin Massacre lows on Christmas Eve, the Nasdaq is up almost 25% and the Dow lagging at a mere 18.75%!!

 

Trannies and Small caps were up most on the week, Nasdaq and S&P lagged…

 

The S&P 500 manage to get back above 2800 but is still struggling to follow-through…

 

LYFT IPO opened at $87.24 (after pricing at $72) but faded from the open…they defended $80 but that broke into the close…

 

FANG stocks soared in Q1 by 23.5% – the best quarter since Q3 2013

 

Credit (HY CDX -100bps, IG CDX -24bps, biggest quarterly drop since Q1 2012)  and equity (VIX -11.6 vols, biggest Quarterly drop since Q4’11) protection costs collapsed in Q1…

 

Global sovereign bond yields plunged in Q1 (and Q4 2018) to their lowest since Jan 2018… (this is the biggest 2Q drop in sov yields since the growth crisis in 2016)

 

US Treasury yields plunged in Q1 (extending Q4’s collapse)…

 

30Y Yields are below 3.00%, 10Y below 2.50%, and the rest of the curve plunged…

 

The US yield curve has now flattened for 8 of the last 9 quarters, plunging into inversion this week…

 

Overall, the dollar trod water in Q1 (ending up around 1%) – the 4th quarterly rise in a row…

 

Cable tumbled back to recent lows today after May’s 3rd (and final) attempt to get her deal done failed…

 

Cryptos managed gains on the week with Bitcoin back above $4000, but it is Litecoin that dramatically outperformed in Q1…

 

Crude and Copper surged this week as PMs lagged…

 

Gold eked out some gains for the second straight quarter as The Fed went full dovetard and after being dumped yesterday, found support at the 100DMA today…

 

WTI soared in Q1 by the most since Q2 2009 (after collapsing in Q4)…

 

Finally, we note that the markets have seen an unprecedented swing in their outlook for The Fed…

Rescuing stocks (for now) from their 1037 analog…

END

 

MARKET TRADING/ LATE MORNING TRADING

 

end

ii)Market data/

As mortgage rates plummet, new home sales surge

(courtesy zerohedge)

New Home Sales Surge In February As Mortgage Rates Tumble

After disappointing pending home sales, February new home sales beat expectations, rising 4.9% MoM after a massively upwardly revised January jump of +8.2% (revised from -6.9% MoM).

The 667k SAAR is the highest since March 2018…

While tumbling mortgage rates helped, we also note that the median sales price fell 3.6% from a year earlier to $315,300.

Purchases of new homes rose in three of four U.S. regions, led by a gain in the Midwest, while transactions in the South, the largest region, climbed to the highest level since 2007. Sales in the West were unchanged.

The supply of homes at the current sales rate decreased to 6.1 months, the lowest since June, from 6.5 months in January.

New-home purchases are seen as a timelier barometer of housing than those of previously owned properties, as they’re calculated when contracts are signed rather than when they close.

END

U. of Michigan soft data rebounds in March and it was hope in the low income American category that sparked the gain.

(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich Confidence Rebounds In March As Low Income Americans Expect Big Pay Gains

Consumer confidence rebounded in March to 98.4 from last month’s 93.8, slightly above the average of 97.2 recorded in the past 26 months. The March gain in the Sentiment Index was entirely due to households with incomes in the bottom two-thirds of the income distribution.

Middle and lower income households more frequently reported income gains than last month, although income gains were still widespread among upper income households. Indeed, the last time a larger proportion of households reported income gains was in 1966.

Rising incomes were accompanied by lower expected year-ahead inflation rates, resulting in more favorable real income expectations …

Finally, it should be noted that too few interviews were conducted following the summary release of the Mueller report to have any impact on the March data; if there is any, it may affect the April data. As noted in last week’s special report on the politicization of economic expectations, the divergence between Democrats and Republicans has remained substantial. It is unlikely that the average level of sentiment, however positive, has the same impact on consumer spending given the sharp political differences. Nonetheless, the data do not indicate an emerging recession but point toward slightly lower unit sales of vehicles and homes during the year ahead.

end

Soft data Chicago PMI (National) drops sharply in March and a good indicator of the slow growth in the uSA economy

(Chicago PMI)

Chicago PMI drops sharply in March as order backlogs fall to contractionary levels

Mar 29, 2019 9:49 a.m. ET

Chicago PMI in March slowed to a reading of 58.7 from 64.7, MNI Indicators said. Any reading above 50 indicates improving conditions. Order backlogs fell into contraction territory, while production and new orders fell but were still above their January levels. Companies ran down their inventories at the fastest pace since July 2018. The average of 60 for the first quarter was the lowest in two years.

-END-

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Brandon Smith is one smart cookie. He believes that the Fed is controlling the demolition of its own economy.  He states that the Fed should have cut rates right now and not paused.  Why continue with balance sheet run off until September when already the economy is faltering badly and the yield curves are inverting. He believes that we know have a perfect storm where England is in a mess with Brexit, the European economies including Germany’s are badly in a rot and the uSA is engaging in a trade war with China.  The Fed does not like to be blamed so now it surely looks like a perfect storm is developing globally.

a must read…

(courtesy Brandon Smith)

SWAMP STORIES

Trump is set to hold Democrat officials behind the collusion hoax accountable

(courtesy zerohedge)

‘They’ve Got Big Problems’: Trump Vows To Hold Officials Behind Collusion ‘Hoax’ Accountable

President Trump told a packed audience in Michigan on Thursday that he’s been fully vindicated by special counsel Robert Mueller’s report, and those who perpetrated the Russia ‘hoax’ will now be held to account, reports PJ Media.

Trump called the Russia probe a “sinister effort” to undermine his election victory, and now “The Russia hoax is finally dead,” Trump told the crowd.

We defeated a very corrupt establishment and we kept our promise to the American people and it is driving them crazy. Today, our movement and our country are thriving. Their fraud has been exposed and the credibility of those who pushed this hoax is forever broken. And they have now got big problems,” said Trump.

“This group of major losers did not just ruthlessly attack me, my family, and everyone who questioned their lies. They tried to divide our country, to poison the national debate, and to tear up the fabric of our great democracy, the greatest anywhere in the world. They did it all because they refused to accept the results of one of the greatest presidential elections, probably number one, in our history.”

Embedded video

Andrew Surabian

@Surabees

The political left & their allies in the media spent 2 years attempting to tear down @realDonaldTrump‘s entire family, as well as his Admin, while needlessly dividing the country in the process, all because they couldn’t get over Hillary Clinton losing.

Of note, a four-page summary of Mueller’s report said that the special counsel investigation found no collusion with Russia during the 2016 campaign, however it also says that the report “also does not exonerate him.”

Pencil-neck Schiff

Trump took some time mock Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), who has the “smallest, thinnest neck I’ve ever seen.”

Embedded video

Kyle Morris

@RealKyleMorris

President Trump mocks Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), refers to him as “pencil neck”

“Sick. Sick. These are sick people. And there has to be accountability because it is all lies. And they know it is lies. They know it. They know it is. Jerry Nadler, I have been fighting him for many years. He was the congressman from Manhattan. I built great things in Manhattan. I had to beat him many times and now I have to come here and I have to beat him again. Can you believe it? I want every record in the history of the Trump Organization,” said Trump, mocking Nadler. . “We will find something somewhere along the lines. A mistake must have been made. These people are sick.”

Ridiculous Bullshit

Trump said that Democrats will need to “decide whether they will continue defrauding the public with ridiculous bullshit – partisan investigations, or whether they will apologize to the American people.”

END

Attorney General Barr expects to release the Mueller report to Congress by mid April

(courtesy the Hill)

Barr expects to release nearly 400-page Mueller report by mid-April

Attorney General William Barr on Friday told lawmakers that he expects to have a public report of special counsel Robert Mueller‘s Russia probe findings by mid-April and that President Trump has deferred to him to decide what makes it into the redacted document.

“Our progress is such that I anticipate we will be in a position to release the report by mid-April, if not sooner,” Barr wrote to House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) and Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

“Although the President would have the right to assert privilege over certain parts of the report, he has stated publicly that he intends to defer to me and, accordingly, there are no plans to submit the report to the White House for a privilege review,” Barr wrote.

Barr said Mueller’s report is “nearly 400 pages long (exclusive of tables and appendices) and sets forth the Special Counsel’s findings, his analysis, and the reasons for his conclusions.”

The attorney general pushed back on previous characterizations that he had only provided lawmakers with a “summary” of Mueller’s findings with his four-page letter to Congress on Sunday, stating that he provided “bottom line” talking points about Mueller’s findings.

“My March 24 letter was not, and did not purport to be, an exhaustive recounting of the Special Counsel’s investigation or report,” he wrote.

“As my letter made clear, my notification to Congress and the public provided, pending release of the report, a summary of its ‘principal conclusions’—that is, its bottom line,” he added.

President Trump’s top cop also identified the dates he is available to testify before Congress.

“I am currently available to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee on May 1, 2019 and before the House Judiciary Committee on May 2, 2019,” he said.

 

end

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

 

 

END-

Let’s close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg hunter of USAWatchdog

 

Trump Russia Hoax Over, MSM Damaged Beyond Repair, Yield Inversion Trouble

By Greg Hunter On March 29, 2019

During the last two years, the mainstream media (MSM) continued to perpetuate this outright lie, and anyone who did not come on and continue the lie was dismissed. Famed lawyer Alan Dershowitz said he was “banned” from CNN because he would not participate in the smearing of President Trump with the Russia collusion hoax. Now, the MSM ratings are imploding with little chance of recovery.

The yield curve continues to invert, meaning you can get paid more from the U.S. Treasury for locking up your money for one month than you can for locking up your money for 10 years. Experts say yield curve inversions always spell trouble for the economy. Is the economy teetering on an abyss of unpayable debt?

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

 

 

I WILL SEE YOU MONDAY NIGHT
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: