APRIL 3/GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TO $1291.05//SILVER UP 2 CENTS TO $15.13//THREE BIG BELLWETHERS: 1/ CATERPRILLAR; 2 GERMAN INSTITUTES DOWNGRADE GERMAN GDP BY HALF TO ONLY .8% YEAR/YEAR//APPLE CUTS I PHONE PRICES BECAUSE OF SLUMPING SALES//MORE BREXIT NEWS//MORE SWAMP STORIES///

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1291.05  DOWN $0.20 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15.13 UP 2 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1290.40

 

 

silver: $15.16

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today: 0/131

 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,290.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/02/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 04/04/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
323 H HSBC 19
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 11
661 C JP MORGAN 29 21
686 C INTL FCSTONE 6
730 C PTG DIVISION SG 6 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 59 8
800 C MAREX SPEC 26 1
880 H CITIGROUP 69
905 C ADM 5
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 131 131
MONTH TO DATE: 3,042

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 131 NOTICE(S) FOR 13100 OZ (0.407 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  3042 NOTICES FOR 304,200 OZ  (9.46 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

20 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 100,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 695 for 3,475,000  oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$4916   UP $57

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $5265 up  $413

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, THE SILVER COMEX IS PRELIMINARY DATA//THE JERKS AT THE CME STILL CANNOT GET THEIR FINAL DATA

THIS TIME BY A SMALL  SIZED 322 CONTRACTS FROM 199,556 UP TO 199,592 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEXTODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE MUST HAVE HAD  CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AGAIN TODAY.

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  0 FOR MAY, 1044 FOR MARCH 2020  0 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1044 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1044 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1044 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.22 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

AND NOW 3.860 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

4542 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 4542 CONTRACTS) OR 22.71 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1514 CONTRACTS OR 7.570 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  22.71 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 3.24% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          595,40    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                           207.835   MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 322 DESPITE THE 1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD   A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1044 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED: 1366 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 322 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1044 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER ????  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.11 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.997 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 143% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 20 NOTICE(S) FOR  100,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW APRIL AT 3.860 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY ANOTHER CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2641 CONTRACTS, TO 440,170 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.50//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  

 WE JUST HAD OUR FIFTH STRAIGHT DAY OF AN OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE DUE TO THE ANTICS OF THE SPREADERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SPREADERS LIQUIDATE THEIR CONTRACTS NOT SIMULTANEOUSLY BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES DURING THE TRADING DAY TO CAUSE THE CASCADE OF PRICING IN OUR PRECIOUS METALS AND THAT IS HOW THEY ALWAYS WIN ON OPTION EXPIRY..THEY ARE SO CROOKED. AT THE END OF THE DAY THEY ELIMINATE THE OTHER HALF OF THE SPREAD TRADE. THE COLLAPSE OF OPEN INTEREST SHOULD END WITH THIS READING AND ADVANCE FROM TUESDAY ON..

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4646 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 4646 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020l  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 440,170. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A NET GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2005 CONTRACTS: 2641 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4646 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 2005 CONTRACTS OR 200,500 OZ OR  6.446 TONNES. YESTERDAY WE HAD A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $1.50….AND YET WITH THAT, WE HAD A GOOD GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 6.446 TONNES!!!!!!. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 16,673 CONTRACTS OR 1,667,300 OR 51,86 TONNES (3 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5557 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 51.86 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 51.86/2550 x 100% TONNES = 1.05% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1428.91 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A FAIR SIZED  DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2641 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($1.50) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4646 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4646 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 2005 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4646 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2641 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 6.446 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.50 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX!!!!!

 

 

 

we had:  131 notice(s) filed upon for 131 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20  TODAY 

 

A MASSIVE E3.81 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED FROM THE GLD

THIS GOLD WAS USED AT THE COMEX FOR RAIDING PURPOSES.  NO QUESTION ABOUT IT; THE COMEX IS VOID OF GOLD…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 322 CONTRACTS from 199.556 UP TO 199,592 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 1044 FOR MAY AND MARCH 2020: 0 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1044 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 322 CONTRACTS TO THE 1044 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE  OBTAIN A CONSIDERABLE GAIN OF 1366  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6.83 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH. AND NOW 3.860 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL.

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 1 CENT FALL IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1044 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 39.47 POINTS OR 1.24% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 361.72 POINTS OR 1.22%  /The Nikkei closed UP 207.90 POINTS OR 0.97%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.65%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7083 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 62.67 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.65 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7083 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7133 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)Algos misread the USA/China headlines that they have resolved most of the trade deal issues.  No they have not…

it does not matter… global stocks surge!

( zerohedge)

ii)Not a good harbinger of things to come;  Apple slides as Chinese iphone prices are crashed

( zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)BREXIT/EU/

It is the uncertainty that it killing Britain.  Our bet is that Britain escapes the clutches of the EU and will be better off but will suffer a bit in the short term

( zerohedge)

ii)This is what worries Tom Luongo as the British Parliamentarians have shunned their constituents
a good commentary on what to expect
( Tom Luongo)
iii)Germany

The big German Institutes are now cutting GDP growth in half down to .8% year/year

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY

This is very interesting:  the Turkish now are beginning to shun Erdogan on his crazy policies after 3 of the major Turkish cities all went with the Republican secular party.  The citizens realize how precarious their economy is in as USA dollars are scarce and much needed to fund their economy.  They are down to their last 10 billion dollars and thus the reason for the Turkish lira  falling

( Benny Anvi/New York Sun)

i b)this is very important:  Mike Pence issues Turkey an ultimatum: choose being a ember of NATO or buy Russian S400

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)ISRAEL/UK/USA

The UK condemns Trump’s recognition of the Golan Heights, territory that the Israeli’s will never give up especially with the Iranians inside Syria. However this condemnation will further hurt European relations with the uSA. The Europeans are trying to skirt sanctions against Iran

a real mess

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

My favourite Bellwether stock indicating global growth is Caterpillar.  Today Deutsche  Bank downgraded this company slashing its price target from $152 down to $128.

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

VENEZUELA

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//early this morning

 

 

 

 

ii)Market data

a)Very unusual:  the always bullish and biased ADP report for the first since in many moons shows the weakest jobs gains as manufacturing and construction tumbled:

( ADP)

b)Next on tap is USA auto sales and March was dismal

( zerohedge)

c)We knew that this will happen:  mortgage refi’s soar due to the plummeting interest rates;

( zerohedge)

d)This data point caught everybody in bewilderment:  the usually strong ISM service survey plunges to 19 month lows.  Usually ISM, a soft data entry, is generally very bullish.

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Interesting: 25% of all Millennials are now longer having sex due to financial problems..plus other goodies

( Simon Black/Sovereign Man)

b)We now have preliminary findings as to how the Boeing 737 Max 8 went down.  It seems the pilots first correctly de-activated the MCAS software once the nose of the plan pointed down.  However by accident they must have re engaged the software.

bad news for Boeing…

( zerohedge)

c)This is no joke:  Trump is to give China until 2025 to commit to the trade deal. What a farce!

( zerohedge)

 

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)this is one big joke:  the Democrats are going to go on a nationwide tantrum if the Mueller report is not released forthwith

( zerohedge)

b)And it is done:  the House democrats vote to subpoena the Mueller report because they cannot wait two weeks

(courtesy zerohedge)

c)Comey is one big joke!

( Earle/Daily Mail)

d)Trump is threatening to close the order with Mexico. This will hurt many foods like avocados will will not be able to enter the USA. Canada will be hurt badly.  However Trump is forgetting one major thing:  he desperately needs Mexico’s silver..stay tuned to this one..
(courtesy zero hedge)

e)the Ukrainian episode with his son to which we have highlighted to you in the past, is finally coming to light. A closed probe is now revived

and this should end Joe Biden’s bid for being President
(courtesy John Solomon)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSED FOR THE 6TH STRAIGHT DAY AS IT FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2,763 CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 440,170 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.50) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING) 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4646 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR APRIL 0 FOR JUNE ’19: 4646 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4646 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 2005 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4646 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST AN CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2641 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::2005 contracts OR 200,500 OZ OR 6.446 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of APRIL and here the open interest stands at 1335 contracts, having lost 1119 contracts.

We had 1131 notices filed upon yesterday, so we GAINED 12 contracts or an additional 1200 oz will  stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as NEGATING a fiat bonus.  THE GOLD COMEX IS VOID OF GOLD.

 

The next non active delivery month after  APRIL is the NON active delivery month is MAY and here the OI LOST 36 contracts DOWN to 2089 contracts. The next contract month after May is June and it is an active month.  Here the open interest FELL by 2137 contracts DOWN to 326,266 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 131 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 110300 OZ. (

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 322 CONTRACTS FROM 199,556 UP TO 199,592(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 1 CENT FALL IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 97 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 100 CONTRACTS ON THE DAY.

WE HAD 121 NOTICES SERVED UP YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED  21 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 105,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

AFTER APRIL, WE HAVE THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 3814 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 129,083. CONTRACTS.. THE NEXT MONTH OF JUNE ADDED 23 CONTRACTS TO TOTAL 25. AFTER JUNE, THE VERY BIG DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HAD A GAIN OF 2838 CONTRACTS UP TO 42,137 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED A STRONG 1366 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 322 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1044 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1366 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS STRONG  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 20 notice(s) filed for 100,000OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  194,559  CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  207,164  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  APRIL/GOLD

APRIL 3 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
131 notice(s)
 13100 OZ
(0.407 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1204 contracts
(120,400 oz)
3.744 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3042 notices
304,200 OZ
9.46 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had no dealer entries:

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had xxx kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  nil

 

total gold deposits: niloz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil oz

 

we had 1 adjustments…
and what I was waiting for:
out of JPMorgan:
37,137.682 oz was adjusted out of the dealer JPMorgan and this landed into the customer account of JPMorgan:

FOR THE APRIL 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  131 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3042) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (1335 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (131 x 100 oz per contract) equals 424,500 OZ OR 13.20 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (3042 x 100 oz)  + (1335)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (131 x 100 oz )which equals 424,600oz standing OR 13.206 TONNES in this  active delivery month of APRIL.

THIS DATA HAS BEEN CORRECTED FROM YESTERDAY AND IS NOW ACCURATE.

WE NOW HAVE MORE GOLD STANDING VS REGISTERED OR “FOR SALE GOLD” AVAILABLE TO SETTLE AT THE COMEX.

WE GAINED 12 CONTRACTS OR 1200 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.(AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EFFORTS)

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 13.01 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE)

DURING THE TWO DAYS I COULD NOT RETRIEVE DATA, WE MUST HAVE  HAD AN ADJUSTMENT WHEREBY 1.75 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADJUSTED INTO THE DEALER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  418,325.580 oz or  13.01 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,029,021.479 oz 249.73 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 1.201819.897 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

AT CONCLUSION APRIL 30/2018:  ONLY 4.6407 TONNES STOOD AS THE REST MIGRATED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR WHERE MANY MORPH TO LONDON BECAUSE THERE IS NO METAL AT THE COMEX.

 

 

IN THE LAST 30 MONTHS 105 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

APRIL 3 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,217,627,178  oz
cnt
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
96,716.750 oz
oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
20
CONTRACT(S)
100,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
77 contracts
385,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 655 contracts

3,475,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan:  xxx  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.825 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.12% of all official comex silver. (147 million/300.8 million)

 

i) Into Scotia:  96,716.750 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  96,716.750  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of CNT:  19,789.908 oz

ii Out of HSBC:  1,197,887.270 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1m217,677.178  oz

 

we had xx adjustments..and this is what i want to see to indicate settlements.  (yet nothing for gold)

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  88.580million

total dealer + customer silver:  305.517 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2019. contract month is represented by 20 contract(s) FOR  100,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 695 x 5,000 oz = 3,475,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (97) and the number of notices served upon today (20 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month:695(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL( 97) -number of notices served upon today (120)x 5000 oz equals 3,860,000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 21 contracts or an additional 105,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

ON  FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 29/2018: WE HAD 1,805,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY FOR THE  APRIL 2018 DELIVERY MONTH

AT CONCLUSION OF APRIL 2018: 2,485,000 OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS ALREADY WELL DEVELOPED IN SILVER. (APRIL IS A NON ACTIVE SILVER DELIVERY MONTH)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  67,089 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 87,065 CONTRACTS… (

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 87,065 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 435 million OZ  62.18% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.08% (APRIL 3/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.61% to NAV (APRIL 3/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.08%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.95/TRADING 12.45/DISCOUNT 4.06

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

 

MARCH 27/SURPRISING! WITH GOLD DOWN AGAIN BY $4.05, THE CROOKS NEEDED TO PUT GOLD BACK INTO THE GLD: THEY ADDED 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 781.03 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.85: A STRONG 2.94 TONNES DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 781.03 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $4.60 TODAY: A MASSIVE 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 779.27 TONNES AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1..18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED:  TOTAL GLD INVENTORY REMAINING:  778.09 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.70: A BIG CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.04 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT AGAIN OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.53 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $1.70: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.87 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY AND THIS GOLD HAS BEEN USED IN THE WHACKING PROCESS YESTERDAY AND TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD ANOTHER $12.50 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33 TONNES

FEB 26  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

 

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.99 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/ A SURPRISE GAIN (DEPOSIT) OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.50 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

APRIL 3/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 764.29 tonnes

*IN LAST 570 TRADING DAYS: 170.66 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 470 TRADING DAYS: A NET 3.84TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

WE MUST BE GETTING CLOSER TO THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE GLD.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 656,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.301 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.957 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 469,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.957 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.356 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TODAY AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 1.17 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 516,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: STRANGE!! TWO TRANSACTIONS!!  IN THE MORNING A WITHDRAWAL OF 703,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307,800 OZ/ IN THE AFTERNOON: A DEPOSIT OF 1.56 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY FINALLY RESTS AT 309.160 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS//A  SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 610,000 OZ//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ/

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT; NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/RESTS AT 309.984

FEB 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ/

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS: SURPRISINGLY A DEPOSIT OF 1.688 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

 

APRIL 3/2019:

 

Inventory 309.301 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.12/ and libor 6 month duration 2.65

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .53

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.45%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.73

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.28

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

7 Reasons To Worry About the Global Economy In Charts

a) Trade Uncertainty: Global trade has seen a sharp downturn in recent months
b) Policy Uncertainty: Brexit, U.S., China & global economic policy uncertainty surges
c) Financial Conditions: Financial markets are beginning to show signs of stress
d) Dollar Strength: Greenback strength impacts emerging markets such as Turkey
e) Economic Surprises: Economic data globally has been surprising to the down side
f) Low-flation: Despite unprecedented monetary support, deflation remains a risk
g) Debt: U.S. leveraged loan market showing stress

via Bloomberg

– The global economy is wobbling and is predicted to grow at just 3.3 percent this year
– Trade tensions, policy uncertainty taking a toll on confidence

– WTO on Tuesday cut its forecast for trade growth in 2019


Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

The global economy is wobbling in 2019, giving rise to recession fears and forcing the world’s central banks to consider renewed policy easing.

The stresses have prompted repeated forecast downgrades by governments and other authorities. On Tuesday, the World Trade Organization slashed its 2019 trade projection to the weakest in three years. The OECD cut its economic forecast last month and warned of downside risks that could mean an even worse outcome.

Across trade, equities, currencies and interest rates, here are a few reasons analysts are worried about the global economic outlook:

1. Trade

U.S.-China trade talks sputter on, without any clear sign of resolution. The Chinese economy has been a difficult one to pin down, sliding more than expected and then improving in fits and starts. That’s feeding into a broader malaise in global demand, which has shown up in the form of dramatically slower trade flows.

While quarterly data show a frightening drop at the start of 2019, a more timely Bloomberg Economics dashboard of 10 critical gauges has pointed to ongoing weakness. German companies’ sentiment showed a glint of hope in March after six straight declines.

Highs and Lows

Global trade growth has seen a sharp downturn in recent months

Source: CPB World Trade Monitor

And the pain is felt acutely in Asia, home to some of the world’s most export-reliant economies. Purchasing manager indexes across the continent are only starting to show hints of a China-led rebound after several months of souring.

Asia’s purchasing managers show a bit more optimism

2. Policy Uncertainty

Trade talks and the tariff wars have fed into the guessing game around how politics and policy will interfere with the fundamentals. Also in the mix are Brexit, a spate of elections — some of them messy, like Thailand — and the sharp turn in the global monetary policy cycle. China’s policy uncertainty has been especially pronounced as analysts try to pick apart how officials will manage the slowdown there.

In the U.K., Brexit has become the weight that won’t go away, still holding back capital spending and broader economic growth, as London-based Bloomberg Economics economist Dan Hanson shows. The British Chambers of Commerce said this week that investment intentions are at the lowest in eight years as firms refuse to commit to projects in such an uncertain backdrop.

relates to All the Reasons to Fret About the Global Economy, in Charts

3. Financial Conditions

The financial markets have taken some of the developments in stride, while still showing signs of stress.

It’ll be a gauge to keep an eye on, but for now, the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index — which measures the overall level of financial stress in money, bond and equity markets — is at least looking better than it did since touching a 2 1/2-year low in December. A positive value in that measure indicates accommodative financial conditions, while a negative value indicates tighter financial conditions relative to pre-crisis norms.

U.S. financial conditions start 2019 in accommodative mode

4. Dollar Strength

Emerging-market officials especially are attuned to any durable signs that the greenback will return to the strengthening path that added a lot of pressure in 2018. The dollar remains in a relatively stronger band against a basket of major currencies, particularly compared with its position a year ago.

Greenback wiggles within relatively high band versus major peers

5. Economic Surprises

Adding to the gloomy hard data is the fact that analysts just haven’t been very good at forecasting recently. Releases have been surprising on the negative side more often — across the U.S., Europe and Asia-Pacific.

It’s even more concerning when you consider economists’ terrible record on predicting recessions.

Economic data have been delivering negative surprises

6. Low-flation

Since Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell branded it “one of the major challenges of our time,” stubbornly low inflation has garnered even more attention around the world. Despite unprecedented monetary support, central bankers have been constantly frustrated in their attempts to generate sustainable price growth. Central bankers’ worries about price growth aren’t going away.

7. Debt

While debt worries might vary by economy, one area getting extra attention lately — including from former Fed chief Janet Yellen — is the U.S. leveraged loan market. UBS Group AG and Deutsche Securities Inc. analysts have cited the risk, and Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore, said last week that he shares Yellen’s concern.

Losing Streak

Investors cool on riskier U.S. loans funds with outflows extending for 18th week

Source: Lipper

Full article via Bloomberg

 


Complimentary Storage In Zurich For 6 Month when you purchase the minimum amount of 10,000 ($€£) in physical gold and or silver for a limited time only until April 18

 

News and Commentary

Gold books slight gain as stock-market bulls take a breather (MarketWatch.com)

Gold firms as U.S. stocks retreat; strong dollar caps gains (Reuters.com)

Italy to pass decree on Thursday to reimburse savers hit by bank rescues (Reuters.com)

U.S. new construction plunged about 53.9% (GoldReview.com)

Bitcoin’s Sudden Surge Propels It Above $5,000 (Bloomberg.com)


Source: Bloomberg

Gold Is Heading Towards $1,400, Not $1,200 — Bloomberg Intelligence (Bloomberg.com)

All the Reasons to Fret About the Global Economy, in Charts (Bloomberg.com)

How A ‘No Deal’ Brexit Could Lead To The “Lehmanization” Of Europe (ZeroHedge.com)

Brexit batters businesses and the economy as cliff edge looms (Independent.co.uk)

Ireland Property Rush Risks Repeat of Crisis (Bloomberg.com)

Gold breaks out from trendline resistance (IG.com)

 

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

02 Apr: USD 1,287.20, GBP 984.97 & EUR 1,148.95 per ounce
01 Apr: USD 1,291.90, GBP 987.27 & EUR 1,149.15 per ounce
29 Mar: USD 1,291.15, GBP 991.09 & EUR 1,151.19 per ounce
28 Mar: USD 1,306.90, GBP 995.20 & EUR 1,161.18 per ounce
27 Mar: USD 1,318.25, GBP 997.78 & EUR 1,168.23 per ounce
26 Mar: USD 1,315.25, GBP 993.15 & EUR 1,162.02 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

02 Apr: USD 15.02, GBP 11.51 & EUR 13.42 per ounce
01 Apr: USD 15.07, GBP 11.50 & EUR 13.42 per ounce
29 Mar: USD 15.10, GBP 11.52 & EUR 13.45 per ounce
28 Mar: USD 15.19, GBP 11.58 & EUR 13.53 per ounce
27 Mar: USD 15.40, GBP 11.65 & EUR 13.65 per ounce
26 Mar: USD 15.44, GBP 11.66 & EUR 13.65 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Central Banks Continue to Buy Gold at a Record Clip
– ItalExit and Cyber Risks in a Cashless World May Be Bigger Risks Than Brexit : Interview with GoldCore CEO
– Ireland and EU Countries Must Seek ECB Approval to Manage Gold Reserves – Draghi
– Global Risks Increasing – Underlining The Case For Gold in 2019 (GoldCore Video Presentation)
– Brexit and Learning To “Live With Boom and Bust Economic Cycles”
– ‘No Deal’ Brexit Risk Impacting UK and Irish Economies – Gold Gains On Recession Concerns
– America’s “Debt Crisis Is Coming Soon”
– Russia Buys 1 Million Ounces Of Gold In February – Become Your Own Central Bank

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

 

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

GATA) Sprott portfolio manager is suspicious of last week’s flash crash in monetary metals

Sprott senior portfolio manager Reik wonders if last week’s flash crash was perhaps due to the antics of one or more big players trying to rig markets

(courtesy Kingworldnews/Sprott/Reik)

Submitted by cpowell on 04:43PM ET Wednesday, April 3, 2019. Section: Daily Dispatches
12:35a Thursday, April 4, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In commentary posted at King World News, Sprott USA Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik can’t help wondering if last week’s flash crash in the monetary metals was not the product of ordinary market action but that of one or more big players trying to rig prices down for first-quarter valuation purposes.

Reik writes: “The tenor for precious metals markets heading into March month-end may have been set on Thursday morning, March 27. At 9:37 a.m. 7,000 Comex gold contracts were sold at-the-market in the space of one minute. This means that 700,000 ounces (or 21.77 tonnes) with a notional value of $921 million was dropped into Comex (electronic) pits without price limitation. While spot gold did decline roughly $7 during the ‘flash crash,’ it finished the day in orderly trading above $1,300 (at $1,309.57).

“Perhaps in recognition that a far more concerted effort would be required to achieve a month-end mark below $1,300, volume in Comex gold futures on Friday, March 28, exploded to 528,626 contracts, or roughly $69 billion in notional value. For context, the World Gold Council reports that average daily trading volume for Comex gold futures totaled just $28 billion in February 2019 and $36 billion year to date in 2019. Related to the massive March 28 trading volume was an outstanding-interest drop of 48,565 (9.62 percent) for the day, almost all of which was related to a 93.3 percent collapse in remaining April (front month) outstanding interest. That such a large percentage of remaining April open interest was liquidated without traditional roll into June contracts only heightens the pointed nature of trading last week.”

Reik’s analysis is headlined “Trey Reik Asks WTF Is Going On At the Comex?” and it’s posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/trey-reik-asks-wtf-is-going- on-at-the-comex/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END


iii) Other Physical stories

 

-END-

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7083/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7133   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 39.47 POINTS OR 1.24% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 361.72 POINTS OR 1.22%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed //UP 207.90 POINTS OR 0.97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.03/Euro RISES TO 1.1246

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.52/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 62.67 and Brent: 69.65

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP  /OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO –.00%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.50% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.14%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.50: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.66

3k Gold at $1293.85 silver at:15.16   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 11/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.21

3m oil into the 62 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.52 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9967 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1209 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to –0.00%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.52% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.92%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6233..GETTING DANGEROUS

 

Futures Jump, World Stocks Hit 6 Month High On Trade Deal Optimism

US futures jumped and world stocks rallied to a six-month high following the latest dose of daily “trade deal optimism” when the FT reported what everyone already knows (but algos, who have a 10 millisecond memory, have forgotten), namely that the US and China have already resolved most of the easy issues standing in the way of a deal to end their long-running trade dispute but are still haggling over the difficult parts, namely how to implement and enforce the agreement.

That, coupled with some more reassuring economic data, helped S&P futures jump 14 points, fast approaching their Sept all time highs, pushed Germany’s 10-year bond yield back above zero percent, hit the dollar as the euro strengthened for the first time in seven sessions as oil neared the key $70 per barrel mark — a multi-month high — on supply concerns.

“We’re being told that we’re 90 percent of the way there which is obviously encouraging but the final 10 percent — which apparently includes the enforcement mechanism and the removal of tariffs — could take some time to iron out,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda in London. “Investors are happy to be patient here in the hope that the two sides get this right and put an end to a trade war that has clearly taken its toll on markets.”

And since algos quickly calculated that 10% is less than 90% and ignored the actual politics behind the calculus, they promptly activated buy programs and U.S. equity-index futures rose and the Stoxx Europe 600 index jumped, led by miners, as the latest batch of Service PMI data from Italy to Germany also helped ease some of the concern over the euro area’s growth outlook.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose almost 0.8% to their highest since August. German stocks rose 1 percent to its highest level since October, while in Paris, French stocks scaled a similar high.

Europe’s strong session followed overnight gains in Asia where MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed to a seven-month peak, buoyed by stronger-than-expected Chinese services data as China’s Caixin Services PMI printed stronly in March, at 54.4 vs. Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 51.1), the highest since January 2018.

Hopes for a deal to end the trade war between the world’s two largest economies were also prompted by fresh comments from White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow that Washington expects “to make more headway” in talks this week. To be sure, analysts were giddy at the prospect of an imminent deal:

  • “What we’re seeing is that markets have climbed a world of worry but there is progress on trade, a recession is unlikely, central banks have made nods to more dovish policy,” said Chris Bailey, European Strategist at Raymond James. “If you put that into the mix I’m not surprised risk assets have moved up.”
  • “We are going to get a deal done in China and the U.S.,” said Luke Hickmore, senior investment manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “That, with the stimulus China has put in place, and a slightly calmer tone in the U.K. as well, I think is stoking a market that’s wanted to run hotter than it has done for a while.”

Not only have they moved up, but the MSCI World index is now just shy of a bull market from its December lows.

Generally strong world stocks and hopes of a softer Brexit sparked a sell-off in safe-haven government bonds, pushing yields off recent lows. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose almost 4 basis points to 2.52%. Germany’s benchmark 10-year German Bund yield rose back above 0, printing at 0.005%. A week ago it hit a 2-1/2 year low at around minus 0.09 percent on concern about the weak economic growth backdrop.

One fly in the Fed’s “rate hike pause” ointment is that oil prices stood near multi-month highs amid concerns about supply. Brent crude rose to as high as $69.92 per barrel, its highest since November and near the psychologically important level of $70 per barrel. It was last up 0.6 percent at $69.80. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.34% to $62.79 per barrel. As Reuters noted, news that the US is considering more sanctions against Iran, the fourth-largest producer of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the halting of production at a crude terminal in Venezuela threatened to squeeze supply and pushed oil prices up on Tuesday.

As oil prices surge, the Fed will be hard pressed to explain why it is ignoring what is arguably the biggest cause of consumer anger aimed at higher prices and instead focusing solely on boosting stock rices.

Elsewhere, as the Brexit chaos continues, UK Tory Lawmaker Letwin said the process of seeking an Article 50 extension will go ahead as planned, adding that we can work with the government now; adds that Labour leader Corbyn is ‘someone we can do business with’ regarding Brexit. If negotiations with Labor collapse, PM May is said to consider asking lawmakers to rank Brexit outcomes. Separately, the EU is preparing to offer PM May a long Brexit extension with strict conditions including taking part in European Parliament elections and a possible “gentleman’s agreement” regarding Britain’s conduct (e.g. potentially abstaining from taking part in important decisions over the EU’s future), according to FT. Finally, French President Macron has led other EU leaders in warning that UK PM May’s apparent move to take no-deal Brexit off the table offers no guarantees UK will not crash out of the EU on April 12th. In any case, this shitshow isn’t ending any time soon, and certainly won’t end by fulfilling the will of the majority as May will do everything in her power to prevent or delay an actual Brexit.

In FX, the dollar was pressured as risk sentiment improved amid fresh hope for progress in U.S.-China trade talks and better-than-expected services PMI data in all four of the euro-area’s largest economies. The euro rose as stops were triggered. Sterling extended its gains after British Prime Minister Theresa May said late on Tuesday she would seek another Brexit delay to agree an EU divorce deal with the opposition Labour Party leader, raising hopes of a “softer” Brexit.  The Australian dollar led a risk-on rally, boosted by expectations for a U.S.-China trade deal; New Zealand dollar and Scandinavian currencies followed suit while the allure of traditional havens, such as Treasuries and the yen, faded.

Bitcoin, which inexplicably surged 18.7 percent on Tuesday following a major order by an anonymous buyer, extended its gains by another 1.6 percent to $4,977.48. Spot gold dipped 0.08 percent to trade at $1,291.31 per ounce.

On the macro side, data includes ADP employment change as well as Markit services and composite PMIs.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 2,882.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 387.70
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 162.76
  • MXAPJ up 1% to 541.18
  • Nikkei up 1% to 21,713.21
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,621.77
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 29,986.39
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,216.30
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 39,170.16
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,285.05
  • Kospi up 1.2% to 2,203.27
  • German 10Y yield rose 4.5 bps to -0.004%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1235
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $69.84/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 2.171%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 1.134%
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $69.84/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.06% to $1,291.66
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 97.10

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.S. and China officials have resolved most of the issues surrounding the deal though they have yet to agree on what happens to existing U.S. duties on Chinese goods and the terms of an enforcement mechanism to ensure China keeps to the trade deal, Financial Times said, citing people briefed on the talks
  • China’s Vice Premier Liu He will resume negotiations with his U.S. counterparts in Washington Wednesday as both governments push towards an agreement to end their trade dispute
  • A woman carrying two Chinese passports illegally entered President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, Saturday and lied to a Secret Service agent, according to court documents filed in West Palm Beach
  • Larry Kudlow said the president stands by his choice of Stephen Moore for an open seat on the Fed Board despite recent reports about the possible nominee’s failure to fully pay taxes and alimony
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday abandoned her strategy of making Brexit a project of her Conservative Party and Democratic Unionists and asked Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labour Party, to rescue her
  • Crude advanced to the highest this year after a further reduction in supply from OPEC signaled that global markets are tightening
  • Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government pledged sweeping tax cuts and forecast Australia’s first surplus in more than a decade in a budget aimed at engineering a come-from- behind election victory
  • China is drafting rules for overseas investments to be considered part of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, according to people familiar with the matter, marking the first attempt to better define his signature policy
  • Attorney General William Barr hasn’t discussed any part of Mueller’s report with the White House, according to a Justice Department official, but plans to rely instead on his own judgment in deciding whether some details in the report should be withheld under executive privilege
  • Cryptocurrency traders may not know what caused the abrupt surge in Bitcoin on Tuesday, but they’re going along for the ride anyway; the virtual currency climbed to a fresh 2019 high on Wednesday, building on a spike yesterday that many market participants struggled to explain

Asian equity markets were mostly higher as trade optimism and Chinese PMI data helped the region shrug-off the indecisive lead from the US, where the global stock rally had stalled amid thin volumes, weak durable goods data and ahead of upcoming risk events. ASX 200 (+0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) were positive with Australia led by miners amid strength in iron ore prices which hit record levels in China and as participants also digested the budget which included an upward revision to the first projected surplus in over a decade and proposed AUD 158bln in tax cuts. Japanese stocks were lifted as risk appetite was stimulated by reports US and China are nearing a final trade agreement with most issues resolved but continue to haggle on enforcement and implementation. Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) also benefitted from the trade hopes and after further encouraging data from China in which Caixin Services PMI topped estimates and printed its highest since January 2018. However, the performance of the mainland was somewhat fatigued after its recent bullish streak and with Bank of Communications underperforming on reports China National Council for Social Security Fund plans to sell 1.49bln of Bocom’s A-shares. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower as trade hopes ensured a lack of safe-haven demand and with selling exacerbated as prices ran through stops at 153.00. SMBC also suggested the BoJ may reduce its purchases today, although this failed to materialize as the BoJ maintained its Rinban amounts which totalled JPY 1.23tln in 1yr-10yr JGBs and which helped alleviate some of the pressure.

Top Asian News

  • RBI Has Scope to Cut India Rate by 50Bps on Thursday: Quantum
  • Brookfield Said to Consider $2 Billion China Property Deal
  • Trio of Troubles Has Malaysia’s IHH Losing $800 Million in Value
  • Pound Volatility Curve Retains Inversion Before May-Corbyn Talks

Major European indices are firmer [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%] as the positivity continues from overnight where sentiment was driven by US-China trade optimism and positive Chinese PMI data, although the FTSE 100 (Unch) is the exception to this with the index weighed on by the Brexit-related Sterling strength. Sector wise, material names (sector +1.5%) lead the gains as copper and iron prices are bolstered by the seemingly positive trade news alongside supply-side woes. On the flip side, healthcare names lag (sector -0.8%) with heavyweights Novartis (-1.0%) and Roche (-0.9%) weighed on by Walgreen’s cut in guidance yesterday. Elsewhere, the tech sector (+1.3%) is supported by advances in AMD yesterday (+3% pre-market) alongside Taiwan Semiconductor stating that they expect chip orders to pick up.

Top European News

  • Lira Drop Helps Dubai Bank Save $400 Million in Turkey Deal
  • Euro Extends Advance on Italy PMI Data, Renewed Trade Optimism
  • Euro- Area Services Resilience Softens Manufacturing Blow for Now
  • Istanbul Vote Recount Outcome ‘Must Be Accepted by All’: Guven
  • Suddenly Inflation Isn’t Turkish Central Bank’s Only Worry

In FX, this week’s risk roller-coaster continues, and the latest turn of the ride has lifted stocks and high beta currencies to the detriment of so-called safe havens, like the Dollar and core bonds. Hence, the Greenback has handed back gains made on Tuesday vs most G10 counterparts and EMs, with the index retreating towards 97.000 again from just over 97.500. The catalysts, another strong Chinese PMI and similar beats across the Eurozone/Europe, bar the UK, reports that the US and China are getting close to a trade agreement and Brexit developments raising prospects of some kind of deal as opposed to no deal.

  • AUD/NZD – The Aussie and Kiwi have benefited most from the resurgence in broad risk appetite, with the former also deriving independent impetus from data in the form of retail sales and trade overnight. Aud/Usd has recovered from near 2019 lows to 0.7100+, but may be hampered by more hefty option expiry interest as 1.6 bn runs off between 0.7100-10 at the NY cut. Meanwhile, Nzd/Usd is hovering just below 0.6800 compared to sub-0.6750 at worst as the Aud/Nzd cross holds close to the upper end of a 1.0495-50 range.
  • EUR/GBP/CAD/CHF – All firmer vs the Usd following underperformance yesterday, with the single currency boosted by better than expected Eurozone services PMIs across the board and marginally topping Tuesday’s 1.1250 peak, but capped by layered off said to be sitting up to 1.1270. Cable tested the water and resistance into 1.3200 on the back of the aforementioned Brexit manoeuvres aimed at reaching a pact to trigger an extension from April 12 that could lead to a softer withdrawal agreement or terms. However, the Pound was derailed to a degree by a significantly weaker than forecast UK services PMI as the headline recoiled below 50 and IHS predicted this means Q1 GDP stagnation before a downturn in H2. The Loonie continues to recoup losses vs its US peer post-contrasting manufacturing PMIs/ISM on Monday with the aid of firmer crude prices and the overall rebound in risk sentiment to probe over 1.3300, while the Franc is back up around 0.9960 from parity at one stage on Tuesday, but softer vs the Eur within 1.1177-1.1208 trading parameters after more dovish/intervention talk from the SNB.
  • SEK/NOK – The Scandi Crowns are still tracking broader swings in risk, along with technical and fundamental impulses, as Eur/Sek and Eur/Nok retreat towards recent lows and chart support levels circa 10.4100 and 9.6000 respectively.
  • EM – The Lira remains embroiled in political uncertainty as the main parties wrangle over regional election results against the backdrop of renewed diplomatic angst between Turkey and the US, while latest inflation data has piled more pressure on the Try and CBRT given a firmer than forecast CPI rate. Unsurprisingly, Usd/Try is holding above 5.6100 vs other Usd/regional pairings that are reversing recent rallies, and even the Rand in wake of a weak SA services PMI.

In commodities, prices are on the front foot amidst the overall risk appetite couple with a falling buck. WTI (+0.1%) and Brent (+0.6%) futures have been grinding higher since last night, shrugging off the surprise build in API crude stocks (+3.0mln vs. Exp. -0.4mln) with the former residing just above USD 62.60/bbl having hit resistance at USD 63.00/bbl. The support the oil complex has seen has mostly been due to supply disruptions rather than demand improvement. Traders will be eyeing the DoE release today, although price action may be muted as Iranian and Venezuelan supply woes/ market risk appetite hold onto the spotlight. Elsewhere, metals across the board are benefiting from the easing buck with spot gold (+0.1%) remaining below USD 1300/oz (for now), whilst copper (+1.2%) surges on trade optimism after reports that US and China are inching closer to a deal, with the Chinese trade delegation heading to Washington today for another round of talks. Furthermore, Barclays noted that copper supply-side disruptions have the potential to boost the red metal to USD 7000/tonne. Finally, Dalian iron ore prices were bolstered to record highs, also hit by supply issues, as damage is calculated from the cyclones in Western Australia. Barclays also raised its 2019 iron ore price forecast to USD 75/tonne (Prev. USD 69/tonne).

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 8.9%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 175,000, prior 183,000
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 54.8, prior 54.8; Markit US Composite PMI, prior 54.3
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, est. 58, prior 59.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I visited our new house last night to see how it was progressing with less than three weeks to go of a 9-month renovation project. To say I was blown away was an understatement….. blown away by how much work was needed to be done in 2 and a half weeks! I would say there’s more chance of a Brexit plan being agreed by all parties than it being ready on time but as you’ll see below hopes have been raised on that front last night. Back to the house and the builder told me not to worry and said that it all “usually” comes together at the last minute. Between you and me, the thing I’m most looking forward to is our greatest extravagance. A hot tub? a sauna room? aircon? A wrapping room? No we have none of those… instead the luxury is having designed the kitchen so as to have two dishwashers! Who needs extra cupboard space! Since we’ve had three kids I’ve done more washing up than the rest of my time on this planet. I don’t understand how they can need so many eating and cooking implements and how messy it can get. Life is too short for this so I’m looking forward to opening both doors and shovelling it all in and heading down the golf course instead!

So what will come first, Brexit or me moving in? The chances of the former went up last night as PM May’s press conference after Europe closed was more constructive than expected. Following her marathon cabinet session, May said that she will seek another short Article 50 extension from the EU, will engage with Jeremy Corbyn on an alternative Brexit solution, and will agree to implement whatever solution Parliament passes if these talks break down. This is huge news. She is seemingly now prepared to back down on her prior red lines and also prepared to let Parliament decide on the outcome if she and Mr Corbyn can’t. Recall that the customs union option came within 3 votes of passage on Monday. If parliament could muster the votes to pass that plan or an even softer outcome, PM May has now, for the first time, implied that she would negotiate that with the EU without calling for elections. The removal of that risk and that of hopes of a compromise supported the pound as it rallied +0.88% off its intraday lows after her words. In theory this is very positive news for the pound assuming the Conservative government survives the shrapnel from the internal party in-fighting that this will bring.

In total, the main risks now hinge on the reaction from Labour, the ERG within her own party, from May’s coalition partners the DUP, and from the EU. On the first, opposition leader Corbyn said that he is “very happy” to meet with May, so that’s a positive start. On the ERG, there have been a number of negative comments from members of the group but the worst is probably to come. In a statement, the DUP criticised May’s “lamentable handling” of the negotiations, but said that they will continue to “judge all Brexit outcomes against our clear unionist principles”. That at least leaves open the possibility that the DUP would accept a solution that avoids a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Finally, the EU may be unwilling to grant another extension without forcing the UK to participate in EU elections, though we may learn more when Juncker speaks to the European Parliament later today. Donald Tusk seemed to be encouraging patience from his own side.

Prior to last night we learned that there would be no indicative votes today and instead we’re supposed to see MPs debate the new Cooper/Letwin bill, which is designed to prevent a no-deal Brexit next week. We will see if that still occurs given the latest developments. We have until next Wednesday before the emergency EU summit.

Over in markets, it hasn’t quite been so one way in the last 24 hours as it was on Monday with a bit of a lull in newsflow to blame although the Asia session has seen new news. In addition, today’s global non-manufacturing PMIs, tomorrow’s ECB minutes and Friday’s payrolls will also provide us with fresh impetus. We’d expect trade headlines to pick up as China Vice Premier Liu He is scheduled to travel to Washington today to lead a delegation of trade negotiators.

Indeed overnight, the FT has reported that the US and Chinese officials have resolved most of the issues surrounding the deal. The only issues which are yet to be agreed on are what happens to the existing US duties on Chinese goods and the terms of an enforcement mechanism to ensure China keeps to the trade deal. This news, along with better than expected Chinese March Caixin services (at 54.4 vs. 52.3 expected – the highest since January 2018) and composite (52.9 vs. 50.7 last month, highest since June 2018) PMIs, sent Asian markets higher. The Nikkei (+0.83%), Hang Seng (+0.86%), Shanghai Comp (+0.23%) and Kospi (+0.52%) are all up. China’s onshore yuan is up +0.17% to 6.7119. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.42%. We also saw Japan’s March services and composite PMIs overnight at 52.0 (vs. 52.3 last month) and 50.4 (vs. 50.7 last month), respectively.

Back to yesterday and after European equity markets marched higher, with the STOXX 600 (+0.35%) closing at its highest level since late September, US equities traded in a bit more of a holding pattern yesterday following the decent three-day run prior to this. The S&P 500 was flat and the DOW -0.30% – the latter hurt by a profit warning from Walgreens Boots, which saw shares fall -12.81%. The NASDAQ (+0.25%) outperformed a bit, mostly thanks to a strong session by Facebook (+3.26%). DB’s Lloyd Walmsley published a bullish report on the stock early yesterday morning (link here ).

Over in rates, Treasuries partially retraced Monday’s steep rise, with 10y yields back down -3.2bps to 2.469% after Monday’s +9.6bps rise. The 2s10s curve steepened slightly to 17bps as two-year yields slid -3.4bps. That came despite a +3.2bps rise in 2y inflation breakevens, partially driven by the oil rally (more below), as the move was driven solely by declining real yields. This morning, yields on 2-year and 10-year treasuries are up 2.1bps and 2.7bps, respectively, thereby further steepening the 2s10s curve to 17.8bps. EM currencies retraced a bit of Monday’s rally as well, with an EM FX index down -0.10%. The Turkish lira remains the most volatile currency in EM space, weakening -1.93% yesterday to within 3% of its 6-month lows.

Bunds also fell -2.2bps and are back down to -0.052% again while Gilts fell -4.3bps in tandem with the Sterling move. BTPs (+2bps) underperformed after Juncker warned that the Italian economy “hasn’t stopped regressing”. In credit, HY spreads were -9bps tighter in Europe but +3bps wider in the US, while WTI oil rose +1.64% following the latest OPEC estimates, which suggested production was down in March. Plus, a regulatory filing by Saudi Aramco showed that the Ghawar oil field – the world’s largest – can pump an estimated 3.8mn barrels per day, notably less than prior estimates of almost 6mn. Oil prices are now up to their highest levels in 5 months, with WTI at $62.60 per barrel and Brent at $69.43.

Moving on. Yesterday’s data in the US proved to be mostly a non-event. Headline durable goods orders in February declined less than expected (-1.6% mom vs. -1.8% expected), however, these were offset by a downward revision to January. The opposite was true for core capex orders, which were down -0.1% mom (vs. +0.1% expected) but offset by an upward revision to January. So net-net a bit of a wash. Last night we also got the March vehicle sales data from several major carmakers. For Fiat Chrysler, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan in aggregate, sales fell -5.5% yoy, modestly better than the -6.2% yoy expected, but still consistent with a slight deceleration in economic activity this year compared to last year. GM reported its Q1 aggregate figures and also showed a drop yoy, while Ford will report tomorrow.

Finally to the day ahead where the data highlight is likely to be the remaining services and composite PMI revisions for March in Europe this morning. We’ll also get February retail sales data for the Euro Area while in the US this afternoon we kick off with the March ADP employment change print (175k expected), followed then by the PMIs and March ISM non-manufacturing (58.0 expected). We’ve also got Fed speakers scheduled with Bostic, George and Barkin speaking in the afternoon at an ABA event (I wanted to put an extra “B” in) while Kashkari then speaks this evening. China Vice Premier Liu He is also scheduled to travel to Washington to lead a delegation of trade negotiators while NATO foreign ministers are due to gather in Washington.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 39.47 POINTS OR 1.24% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 361.72 POINTS OR 1.22%  /The Nikkei closed UP 207.90 POINTS OR 0.97%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.65%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7083 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 62.67 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.65 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7083 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7133 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

Algos misread the USA/China headlines that they have resolved most of the trade deal issues.  No they have not…

it does not matter… global stocks surge!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks & Bond Yields Jump As Algos Misread US-China Trade Headlines

US equity futures are up along with bond yields as the dollar fades (and yuan gains) following misleading headlines from The FT reporting US and China officials have “resolved most of trade deal issues.”

“We’re getting into the end-game stage,” said Myron Brilliant, executive vice-president for international affairs at the US Chamber of Commerce.

All sounds awesome right? Bond prices are down (yields up) …

And stocks are surging…

There’s just one big thing wrong: Both countries have yet to agree on what happens to existing U.S. duties on Chinese goods and the terms of an enforcement mechanism to ensure China keeps to the trade deal, Financial Times reports, citing people briefed on the talks.

“Ninety per cent of the deal is done, but the last 10 per cent is the hardest part, it’s the trickiest part and it will require trade-offs on both sides,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

So, in other words – no progress whatsoever as enforcement is all that matters and Trump’s threats of maintaining the tariffs as a mechanism of enforcement is certainly something the Chinese – whose economy is awesome again, remember – will not stand for.

Nasdaq futs just took out the highs of the year…

We suspect once the humans read The FT article, things might fade.

As we note AUD already is – a currency that should be jubilant on this…

So finally – summarizing The FT article – besides the sticking points that US and China have been unable to resolve for the past 4 months, everything else is resolved.

Trade Accordingly.

end

Not a good harbinger of things to come;  Apple slides as Chinese iphone prices are clahsed

(courtesy zerohedge)

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

BREXIT/EU/

It is the uncertainty that it killing Britain.  Our bet is that Britain escapes the clutches of the EU and will be better off but will suffer a bit in the short term

(courtesy zerohedge)

German Institute Cuts GDP Growth Forecast In Half To 0.8%

With European stocks surging to levels not seen since last August, the European economy continues to slump ever closer to recession.

One month after Germany avoided a technical recession by the skin of its teeth, when it just barely avoided posting two consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth…

… on Wednesday Germany’s leading economic institutes slashed their growth forecast for Europe’s biggest economy by 60%, to 0.8% from a previous estimate of 1.9% a source told Reuters.

The sharp revision reflects the scale of the slowdown in Germany, whose economy continues to tread recessionary waters and is facing headwinds from a slowing world economy, international trade disputes and the threat of Brexit.

Most of all, Germany is facing continued pain from the ongoing trade deterioration with its most important trading partner, China:

As Reuters adds, the institutes’ estimates feed into the government’s own growth projections which will be updated later this month. The government said in January it forecast growth of 1.0 percent this year.

To be sure, whereas German economic as recently as February was nothing short of abysmal…

… yet wonders if this latest outlook cut may be coming too late – according to the Citi Eurozone econ surprise index, while it remains deep in negative territory, the index had posted steady improvement for the past three months, which however hit a brick wall at the end of March.

Ultimately, Germany’s fate will depend entirely on whether China’s economy has indeed troughed or if the recent PMI rebound ends up being a transitory spike, one which will be promptly squashed by the economy’s downward momentum.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/UK/USA

The UK condemns Trump’s recognition of the Golan Heights, territory that the Israeli’s will never give up especially with the Iranians inside Syria. However this condemnation will further hurt European relations with the uSA. The Europeans are trying to skirt sanctions against Iran

a real mess

(courtesy zerohedge)

UK Condemns Trump’s Recognition Of Golan Heights As Israeli Territory

Speaking Tuesday in the House of Commons, Britain’s Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt issued a critique of US policy and stern rebuke to President Trump’s recent controversial move to bestow formal US recognition on the Golan Heights as sovereign Israeli territory.

Hunt’s words, which he said represents long-standing UK policy, came during a question and answer session in reaction to a fellow Conservative MP member, who raised the “matter of the greatest regret that our allies, the United States, are in clear contravention of UN Resolution 497.”

 

British Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt, file photo.

Hunt condemned Trump’s actions “with a heavy heart” because Israel was also “an ally and a shining example of democracy in a part of the world where that is not common… We want Israel is to a success and we consider them to be a great friend but on this we do not agree,” according to The Times of Israel.

Hunt agreed with Tory Grandee Nicholas Soames’ perspective that the White House’s signing into US law formal recognition of the disputed region previously wrested from Syria was “illegal”.

Soames said that “annexation of territory is prohibited under international law” and asked Hunt to “condemn unreservedly this breach of the rules-based order”.

Without hesitation Hunt declared he was “absolutely happy to do that,” and added:

“We should never recognize the annexation of territory by force… that has been one of the great achievements since the founding of the United Nations.”

Israel fully annexed the Golan Heights in 1981 after capturing it from Syria during the Six-Day War of 1967. The United Nations has never recognized Israeli annexation and settlement there, but has repeatedly condemned it.

President Trump’s reversal of half-century-old US policy was signed into effect on March 25 during a visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House, and cited Israeli security concerns as of paramount importance.

Trump had tweeted days prior that “it is time” for the US to “fully recognize Israel’s sovereignty” over the Golan Heights.

“After 52 years it is time for the United States to fully recognize Israel’s Sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is of critical strategic and security importance to the State of Israel and Regional Stability,” Trump stated, first marking the dramatic reversal of US policy which had historically alongside global international allies seen the Golan as occupied territory.

Netanyahu, for his part, welcomed the move as he has for years declared Israel would “never give it up”.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

After 52 years it is time for the United States to fully recognize Israel’s Sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is of critical strategic and security importance to the State of Israel and Regional Stability!

But as Tuesday’s words from the UK foreign minister confirm, in practice Trump’s act of recognition will change little internationally as well as in terms of the on the ground strategic reality.

However, it could have far-reaching diplomatic reverberations, putting further distance between Washington and European capitals amid the ongoing standoff over Europe’s intent to skirt renewed US sanctions on Iran after Trump’s dumping the 2015 Obama-brokered nuclear deal, or JCPOA.

end

Turkey

This is very interesting:  the Turkish now are beginning to shun Erdogan on his crazy policies after 3 of the major Turkish cities all went with the Republican secular party.  The citizens realize how precarious their economy is in as USA dollars are scarce and much needed to fund their economy.  They are down to their last 10 billion dollars and thus the reason for the Turkish lira  falling

(courtesy Benny Anvi/New York Sun)

and special thanks to G for sending this to us.

Turkey’s Voters Stun Erdogan, Stoking His Ire

By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | April 3, 2019
(special to the New York Sun)

Turkish voters punished their ruling party in municipal elections over the weekend. That could be a good omen for America — unless the strategically crucial country has already drifted too far from Washington.

For the first time in a quarter-century, parties opposing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan scored major victories in local elections. Erdogan’s Islamist Justice and ­Development Party, or AKP, lost eight major cities to secularist candidates. Especially stinging for the AKP were losses in the capital, ­Ankara, and in Istanbul, the country’s economic nerve center.

The Istanbul mayoralty was where Mr. Erdogan in 1994 launched his meteoric political career, one that has brought middle-class prosperity to millions of Turks — but at the price of the country’s democratic institutions and Western alliances.

“The people have spoken, and now they must be punished,” Mayor Ed Koch of New York bitterly quipped after losing an election. But in Turkey, things no longer work that way.

Mr. Erdogan has jailed journalists and packed independent institutions with cronies. An election defeat? Not so fast.

The government has yet to certify results in Ankara, where the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, bested Mr. Erdogan’s AKP by 2 points. Same in Istanbul, where the CHP’s victory was razor thin — but still a win.

Instead, a recount has been ­ordered, perhaps to be followed by another re-recount and another — until the desired results are in.

Reversing century-old secularist traditions that created an imperfect but working democracy, Mr. Erdogan presides over a system in which the number of votes counts for much less than who counts the ballots.

The question for America and its allies: Provided he accepts the ­results, will the shellacking force Mr. Erdogan to reassess his dreams of restoring Turkey’s lost Ottoman glory, with himself reigning as sultan? Will he rethink his ever-growing ties with ultra-nationalists at home and anti-Western forces in the region?

Mr. Erdogan has spurned former Mideast allies while extending a hand to Russia, Iran, and unsavory Sunni-Muslim groups.

Early on, his foreign-policy slogan was “zero problems with neighbors.” His affection for the Muslim Brotherhood, though, irked Egypt and the Persian Gulf countries. His persistent feuds with Israel (often accented by venomous anti-Semitism) strained once-tight relations with the Jewish state.

Mr. Erdogan has been at odds with pretty much all his neighbors, Iran included, though at various points he also helped the mullahs evade sanctions. Worse, his Turkey, a NATO member and once one of America’s most important allies, is now at best a frenemy.

When Ankara was trusted, America made Turkey a major partner in developing the F-35 fighter jet. Now Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlüt Cavusoglu, who will attend a two-day NATO session at the State ­Department starting Wednesday, is struggling to finalize a delivery of these top-of-the-line aircraft.

Why? Mr. Erdogan has purchased Russian-made S-400 anti-aircraft systems — a threat and an affront to the Atlantic Alliance, not least because the system could make the F-35’s advanced evasion technologies vulnerable to Russian theft.

Last week, General Curtis Scaparrotti, head of the US European Command, advised the Senate Armed Services Committee not to “follow through” with F-35 sales to “allies that are working with Russian systems, particularly air-defense systems.” Don’t even train with such “allies,” he warned.

As Aykan Erdemir, a former Turkish parliamentarian who is now with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, says, “Erdogan has realized for some time that his authoritarian regime is only welcome among other authoritarian regimes, such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela.” Turkey, he adds, “will have to wait until the post-Erdogan era to rebuild a trusting relationship with its NATO allies.”

The next presidential election is still nearly five years away. Mr. Erdogan’s hubris, which has ballooned during too many years of almost absolute power, may well prevent a foreign-policy course change. Will the weekend’s political blow give Washington some leverage over him? Will he even accept the loss?

For now, the would-be sultan seems more likely to tighten alliances with fellow anti-Western dictators.

________

end
this is very important:  Mike Pence issues Turkey an ultimatum: choose being a ember of NATO or buy Russian S400
(courtesy zerohedge)

Pence Issues Turkey Ultimatum: “Choose Between Remaining NATO Member Or Buying Russian S-400”

Two days after we reported that the US had halted delivery of equipment related to the stealthy F-35 fighter aircraft to Turkey as part of the ongoing rift over Erdogan’s plans to move forward with taking delivery of the advanced Russian S-4000 anti-air defense system, on Wednesday the US escalated the war of words with its NATO ally when Vice President Mike Pence threatened Turkey’s future role in the NATO alliance, warning it against “reckless decisions,” like following through with the purchase of the Russian-made air defense system.

 

Russia’s S-400 air defense system; photo: Reuters

“Turkey must choose. Does it want to remain a critical partner in the most successful military alliance in history or does it want to risk the security of that partnership by making such reckless decisions that undermine our @NATO alliance?,” Pence tweeted on Wednesday, after making similar remarks at a NATO summit in Washington.

Vice President Mike Pence

@VP

.@POTUS has made it clear that we will not stand idly by while @NATO allies purchase weapons from our adversaries that threaten the cohesion of our alliance.

Vice President Mike Pence

@VP

Turkey must choose. Does it want to remain a critical partner in the most successful military alliance in history or does it want to risk the security of that partnership by making such reckless decisions that undermine our @NATO alliance?

1,406 people are talking about this

Despite repeated warnings from the US, Turkey has refused to drop its scheduled purchase the Russian weapons system, which is scheduled to be delivered in July. After the Pentagon halted deliveries of the fifth-generation F-35 fighter jet and related equipment to Turkey and halted training of Turkish pilots, Ankara remained defiant with Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu telling the NATO summit that the purchase was “a done deal.”

Cavusoglu and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are currently meeting head-to-head at the summit to discuss the F-35 dispute.

As RT reports, the Turkish FM said that operating the two weapons systems at once “will not be a threat” to the F-35 or other NATO systems. US lawmakers and military officials disagree and have repeatedly warned that Turkey’s deployment of the S-400 would give the Russian system opportunity to learn how to track and spot the F-35, with potentially deadly consequences for the jet in future conflicts.

Despite the escalating war of words, the US has thus far failed to lure its NATO ally away from the Russian system and to Raytheon’s more expensive Patriot missile system, despite offering it to Ankara at a knock-down rate earlier this year.

Complicating matters, Turkey is a core partner in the F-35 program, which is US’ most expensive military project to date, and is responsible for the procurement of several components of the ultra modern fighter jet. If both sides cannot reach a deal, the US will need to find new suppliers for parts of the fighter’s fuselage, landing gear, and cockpit displays.

So far both Erdogan and Trump have kept a low profile on the topic, refusing to get dragged in and escalating the F-35 delivery matter into a full-blown political crisis which if left unchecked could result in a political fiasco similar to that which unfolded last summer, when Turkey’s detention of US pastor Brunson led to brief US sanctions being imposed against the Asian nation and which culminated with a recession in Turkey and its currency plunging to all time lows.

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

My favourite Bellwether stock indicating global growth is Caterpillar.  Today Deutsche  Bank downgraded this company slashing its price target from $152 down to $128.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“Synchronized Global Growth Has Collapsed”: Why Deutsche Just Downgraded Caterpillar

In a world where Caterpillar is considered a global industrial bellwether and a key indicator of economic inflection points, then today’s downgrade of Caterpillar by Deutsche Bank is a harbinger that the recent risk on euphoria may be coming to an end.

Shares of the industrial giant fell after Deutsche Bank downgraded CAT to Hold from Buy, slashing its price target on CAT from $152 to $128: Explaining his rationale, DB’s Chad Dillard said that “we are adjusting our 2019 EPS from $12.41 to $11.80 (vs. guide of $11.75-$12.75 and street of $12.22) and our 2020 EPS from $13.48 to $10.40 (vs. street of $13.06) to reflect our lowered expectations for global growth. We value CAT on 6.5x our 2019 EBITDA for ME&T (vs. 7.5x previously, with the shift reflecting our updated view that we are at peak) and assign a 1.5x price to book value for the FinCo to arrive at our $128 price target.”

Revealing what he thinks is the biggest risk to the bull case for CAT, Dillard says is if CAT’s “backlog growth turns negative and it is becoming increasingly clear that it will within this next quarter.” In fact, DB sees the company’s backlog going negative in the next 3 months:

As he further explains, “negative backlog growth historically precedes a negative earnings revision cycle by 3 months. During these cycles, street estimates get typically get cut by 45% and shares fall by 40% from the peak.” Some more details:

Our proprietary Global Growth Model is a 6-9-month leading indicator for CAT’s backlog growth, which is likely to turn negative in the next 3 months. As of 4Q18, CAT’s backlog was up 4%, but slowing global growth is likely to lead to a decline of 10% in 1Q19 and turn more negative in 2H19. The key takeaway here is that CAT’s 2019 numbers are at risk regardless of what happens from sentiment perspective (trade deal, better China data, etc.) – it will still take another 6-9 months for this improved sentiment to convert into sales for CAT.

And visually:

In terms of actual macro drivers, Dilllard says that “synchronized global growth has collapsed, the China Land Cycle is rolling over (and will continue to weaken despite the single positive data point this week), Europe is slowing more than expected and the US is oversaturated with construction equipment. Each of these factors alone are powerful drivers of CAT’s earnings, but together this synchronized slowdown will not only usher in a negative earnings revision cycle, but also make 2019 the cyclical peak.”

As a result of the rising headlines, Dillard predicts that “Street numbers for 2019 and 2020 are 5% and 20% too high, but the current share price does not reflect this reality.” And while Deutsche Bank acknowledges management “has done a tremendous job improving cross-cycle earnings power and the balance sheet optionality is impressive, we fear these positives are already priced in and the oncoming down-cycle is too powerful to overcome.”

As such, we view the risk/reward as balanced and downgrade CAT from Buy to Hold and update our price target to $128.

Breaking down the key risks, Deutsche Bank lists 4 factors that CAT’s earnings are at a cyclical peak…

… including:

1)Synchronized Global Growth Has Collapsed (55% of CAT’s sales are ex-US) – our proprietary model shows the level of global growth synchronization falling from 80% last year, to <15% in 1Q19. This model is a 6 month forward predictor of CAT’s backlog growth, which we project will decline by +10% in 1Q19 and become more negative through the year, and has historically trended with CAT’s share price (though the relationship decoupled in 1Q, with CAT shares up 10%, and our model down 15%);

2) The China Land Cycle Is Rolling Over (45% of CAT’s (in)direct sales) – China land sales volumes are at a cyclical peak (up 35% from trough vs. +25% historically), the rate of change (a consistent directional predictor) has gone negative and a down-cycle in land results in a 30% decline and takes 24 months to trough. Land Sales are a 2-9 month forward predictor of CAT equipment demand, so the recent slowdown has not fully reached CAT’s sales.

The slowing land cycle in China poses an outsized risk to CAT. Judging by historical measures, the China land cycle is at the peak. Land sales volumes are up 35% from the prior trough (vs. a historical 25% increase) and Y/Y growth recently turned negative (down mid-single digits in the last month). Land sales volumes typically trough 30% below the peak and take 2 years to get there. If we use this framework, it would suggest there is further to go in this down cycle, which poses an outsized risk to CAT.

3) Europe is Slowing More Than Expected (25% of CAT sales) – the street is expecting MSD growth in 2019, but region is more likely to decline by HSD. Europe PMI is a 4-quarter forward predictor of CAT”s EAME sales and this data point points to negative growth starting in 2Q19;

The street expects CAT’s Europe business (25% of sales) to grow by 5% in 2019, but we see downside risk and expect sales to decline by mid to high single digits, presenting 20c of downside risk to street numbers. The Europe PMI is a 4-quarter lead indicator for sales growth and it turned negative last year, which would suggest sales turns negative starting in 2Q19 (down form mid single digit growth in 1Q19). For 2020, sales could be down closer to 10% vs. street expectation of 10%, which implies 60c of downside risk to consensus EPS.

4) The US is Oversaturated With Construction Equipment (20% of sales) – equipment spending as a % of GDP is at a 40-year high and historically sales.

The US is rapidly becoming oversaturated with construction equipment, which represents 20% of CAT’s sales. CAT’s US construction business is likely to be down 10-15% in 2020 (vs. street of down 3%). US equipment spending as a % of GDP has hit a 30 year high of 33bps. Historically, after hitting these peak levels, sales have declined by 17% in year 1 of the downturn and by 25% in year 2. Also, we are starting to pick up a few negative data points already this year: customer delays of rental equipment delivery, CNHI under-producing demand in 2019, DE posting a retail sales decline last month), negative readings in the ABI/Dodge Momentum index. If CAT’s equipment sales are down 10-25% next year, then it could pose 35c-95c of downside risk to 2020 earnings.

DB’s macro bottom line was that within its coverage universe, “CAT is one of the stocks most sensitive to weakening international growth. CAT has a 0.77 correlation with our proprietary Global Growth Model. Also, it has the highest exposure to international sales (ex. ag equipment), which represents 55% of CAT’s sales.”

And since global growth is crumbling, it is only a matter of time before CAT stock follows.

Finally, Dillard lists 5 points that the bulls are missing, which are as follows:

  1. On our numbers, CAT’s multiple is closer to mid-cycle than it should be– CAT trades at ~14x on our 2020 EPS (10% below the 15x mid cycle multiple), but with 60% of its end markets past mid cycle, it should trade at a 25-30% discount to midcycle;
  2. Positioning may be more bullish than the market appreciates – the % of sell-side rating CAT a buy is near multi-year highs at 60%, while the % short interest is near multi year lows at 1.8% of float;
  3. Although CAT’s cross-cycle earnings power has doubled, it does not provide enough downside protection – trough earnings is likely in the $7 range (factoring in $12B of buybacks to account for balance sheet optionality), but the market is unlikely to assign a 20x trough multiple to an untested trough EPS (17-18x more likely, which suggests 10-15% downside);
  4. The balance sheet optionality is tremendous, but the benefit is priced in – we estimate CAT has $7B of excess cash (worth $9/sh of equity value) and if we add this value to our base case price $118 (10x our 2019 EPS of $11.80) we get fair value of ~$127 (10% below the current price);
  5. The path to getting paid by owning CAT is long and complex – to get to our 15% upside scenario we need to assume CAT hits the guidance midpoint (no negative backlog growth), the trade situation gets solved in the near term and it fully deploys its excess balance sheet

While DB’s points are all accurate, the market appears to be discounting almost everything he said and the stock is barely lower in premarket trading, down only 50 cents, and still trading at the highest level it has since last October.

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1246 UP .0043 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  GREEN 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.52  UP .211 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3163    UP   0.0037  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3306 DOWN .0037 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 14 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1231 Last night Shanghai composite closed UP 39.47 POINTS OR 1.24%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 361.72  POINTS OR 1.22% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.65%// EUROPEAN BOURSES  GREEN/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 207.90 POINTS OR 0.97%  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 361.72 POINTS OR 1.22%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 39.47 POINTS OR 1.24% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.65%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 207.90POINTS OR 0.97% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1294.00

silver:$15.17

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.52% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.92 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.03 DOWN 33 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.27%  DOWN 1  in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.05%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.14% UP 0   IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.54 UP  3    POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 142 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES  TO –.00%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.53% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT C44RENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1256 UP    .0037 or  37 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.48 UP 0.172 OR YEN DOWN 17 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3183 UP .0057 POUND UP 57  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 27 basis points to 1.3163

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7114    0N SHORE  (UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7137  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6046

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.05%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.52 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2,93 UP 5  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.09 DOWN 27 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 27.16  0.37%

German Dax : UP 199,61 POINTS OR 1.70%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 45.44 POINTS OR  0.84%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 124.30 POINTS OR  1.33%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 232.96 POINTS OR 1.08%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 62.28 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 69.11 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.13  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.19 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 19 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.00 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  62.49

 

 

BRENT :  69.44

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.52… STILL DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.93..STILL DEADLY

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1236 ( UP 33   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.48 UP .168 (YEN DOWN 17 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.10 DOWN 26 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3150  UP 27POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6251

the Russian rouble 65.24   UP .01 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 1 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3340  UP 3 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7114  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7136  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.00%

 

The Dow closed UP 39.00 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 46.67 POINTS OR 0.60%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.74 CLOSED UP .38 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.602%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.599

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Credit, Curves & Crypto Jump As Stocks Shrug Off Dismal Data Dump

Stocks, bitcoin, and bond yields were up on the day despite US macro data crashing to its weakest since April 2017…

Time flies when you’re having fun ignoring reality…

Embedded video

Catastrophic failure@SafetyFlrst

Clock falls during replacement

After a quiet Tuesday, Chinese stock investors reawakened their bullish enthusiasms…

 

European markets refused to stop surging led by the DAX on trade hope…

 

 

Nasdaq and Small Caps outperformed as S&P, Dow, and Trannies all bounced off ‘unch’ late on… US-China trade headlines 3 minutes before the close confused algos as it was clear the deal was not done…

 

 

Nasdaq triggered a ‘golden cross’ today…

 

 

After S&P triggered on Monday

 

 

Facebook floundered…

 

 

Notably, Credit and equity protection costs rose considerably from their opening highs…

 

And VIX is not buying this equity exuberance…

 

Despite a week of seriously ugly economic data, Treasury yields rose once again today… (the biggest jump was when The FT headlines hit on the trade deal)…

 

Leaving 10Y Yield back above 2.50%

 

The Dollar dropped to 5-day lows today, weakening after the China trade headlines…

 

The crypto crack-up continued with Bitcoin Cash leading the way…

 

And Bitcoin back above $5000 and key technical levels…

 

Makes you wonder what happens next for Bitcoin?

 

 

Commodities were quiet today despite the USD weakness…

 

 

Gold ended the day unch…but was very dead in the last few hours…

 

 

And WTI actually ended lower after a major crude build…

 

 

Finally, we give the last word to Gluskin-Sheff’s David Rosenberg…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

No green shoots today in the US data. ISM Non-mfg PMI index down to a near two-year low and the key in ADP were the declines in small biz (1-19 employees) and goods producing employment.

As US economic data shows the weakest start to a year since 2008…

But then again – stocks don’t seem to care…

 

end

MARKET TRADING/ LATE MORNING TRADING

This morning

Dow Dumps Into Red After Dismal Data, Erases Trade Hype Ramp

So much for the (misplaced) hype around last night’s FT report on US-China trade negotiations. Following weak jobs and dismal survey data, US equities have stumbled out of the block this morning…

 

Boeing and Caterpillar are weighing on the Dow but it was also not helped by President Trump’s border threats.

end

ii)Market data/

Very unusual:  the always bullish and biased ADP report for the first since in many moons shows the weakest jobs gains as manufacturing and construction tumbled:

 

(courtesy ADP)

ADP Shows Weakest Job Gains Since Sept 2017 As Manufacturing, Construction Shrink

Following last month’s weak ADP print which front-ran the dismal “must be an outlier due to weather, shutdown, or anything else” payrolls data, expectations were for a slightly weaker ADP employment headline in March.

However, despite the apparent emergence of ‘green shoots’ around the world, ADP disappointed, adding just 129k jobs in March (well below the expected +175k and only just above the 125k lowest estimate of analysts). This is the weakest growth in employment since Sept 2017…

 

Under the hood, Small businesses shrank their employee base, as Construction lost 6k jobs…

 

“March posted the slowest employment increase in 18 months,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

“Although some service sectors showed continued strength, we saw weakness in the goods producing sector.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is weakening, with employment gains slowing significantly across most industries and company sizes.”

“Businesses are hiring cautiously as the economy is struggling with fading fiscal stimulus, the trade uncertainty, and the lagged impact of Fed tightening. If employment growth weakens much further, unemployment will begin to rise.”

Zandi is not wrong – after 26 straight months of manufacturing jobs gains, March saw shrinkage…

end

Next on tap is USA auto sales and March was dismal

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Auto Sales Wrap Up Terrible First Quarter with Dismal March Numbers

Auto sales in the U.S. wrapped up an ugly first quarter with dismal results for the month of March as the buying frenzy from last year’s tax cuts wore off and the economy continues to decelerate. Of the sales data that was reported for the month, Honda was the only major automaker that didn’t see a year-over-year sales decline. Here’s how some of the bigger name manufacturers ended the month:

  • General Motors saw deliveries drop 7% for the quarterwith all four brands falling
    • Chevy Silverado was down 16%
    • Chevy Suburban dropped 25%
  • Fiat Chrysler sales fell 7.3% (estimates were for a decline of 6.4%)
    • Jeep sales fell 11%, continuing the February trend of SUV demand drying up
  • Toyota sales fell 3.5%
    • This beat estimates for the month, but still showed softness
    • Toyota also fell 5% for the first quarter, hurt by a decline in demand for its Corolla
  • Nissan sales were down 5.3% in March
    • Nissan’s first quarter sales were down 11.6%
    • Deliveries fell 23% for its Infiniti brand
  • Ford sales were down 5% in March, according to industry data
    • The company is expected to show a 2% decline for the quarter
  • Honda saw a 4.3% percent increase, as passenger car sales rose more than 4%.
    • Accord sales were up 5%

“The industry had a tough first quarter but with spring finally starting to show its face and continued strong economic indicators, such as a boost in housing sales, lower lending rates and a strong labor market, we are confident that new vehicle sales demand will strengthen going forward,” Fiat Chrysler’s U.S. head of sales, Reid Bigland, said, and maybe if he keeps repeating that, it will eventually come true…

“While some of our competitors are abandoning sedans, we remain optimistic about the future of the segment,” Toyota said in a statement. As above, good luck with that, Toyota.

“The segment is fairly stable for sedans, though they’re still not where they were a few years ago,” Billy Hays, the head of Nissan brand sales in the U.S., told Bloomberg.

Both Ford and GM no longer announce monthly sales data  – for obvious reasons – but Ford is slated to release its first quarter numbers this Thursday. Estimates have pinned the automaker to a 2% decline for the quarter. The whisper number is lower.

Aside from Dodge’s Ram, the U.S. full size pickup segment continues to sputter.

The seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of sales is forecast to come in at 16.8 million, based on a survey of 12 analysts. While that would be up from February’s 16.61 million rate, it is still well below the 17.33 million pace set in March 2018.

Most notably most analysts forecast that industry sales this year will slip below 17 million for the first time in nearly five years, as higher rates, lower rebates, a deteriorating economy and rising prices continue to suffocate consumer demand.

Jessica Caldwell, executive director of industry analysis at Edmunds said: “Things just keep getting tougher for new-car shoppers. Interest rates have crept up every month so far this year, and new vehicle prices continue to hover near record highs. We’re on the cusp of what could be a pretty dramatic shift in the market, simply because a big chunk of buyers are getting priced out.

Jack Hollis, the Toyota brand sales chief in the U.S., was even more bold: “We’re very close to a bottom,” he said. We’ll be sure to check back in with how this prognostication pans out in coming months.

We warned about slowing Jeep sales being a potential “canary in the coalmine” for the already struggling industry back in early March:

The fact that Jeep sales have slowed is a warning indicator that the SUV “boom” in the U.S. could be coming to an end. Mired by higher interest rates and continued tightening of credit, buyers are forcing once record high SUV sales and prices back down again. As a result, Fiat’s Jeep Wrangler sales fell 5.9% in the month, as inventory continued to pile up at dealerships. Fiat joined companies like Toyota, Honda and Nissan, as virtually every OEM both missed analyst estimates for the month and posted an annual sales decline.

In January, auto companies set the tone for the year, starting 2019 just as miserably as 2018 ended, with major double digit plunges in sales from manufacturers like Nissan and Daimler.

end

We knew that this will happen:  mortgage refi’s soar due to the plummeting interest rates;

(courtesy zerohedge)

Mortgage Refi Apps Soar Most In 4 Years As Rates Plummet

While the headline mortgage applications index made the headlines – rising 18.6% WoW – as mortgage-rates continued to plummet lower, it was the action under the hood that was even more notable.

As mortgage-rates have collapsed to their lowest since Jan 2018, mortgage apps have soared (led by refis).

Note that the rate shift tends to lead applications by around 3-4 weeks, suggesting there is more to come on this mini refi-boom.

In fact purchase mortgage applications growth slowed in the last week, rising just 3.4%; as refinancings exploded 38.5% WoW – the biggest weekly jump since Feb 2015

Perhaps the most ominous sign of all of this is the explosion in Adjustable-rate Mortgages – the second biggest surge since January 2001…

Let’s just hope The Fed never, ever raises rates again!

end

 

This data point caught everybody in bewilderment:  the usually strong ISM service survey plunges to 19 month lows.  Usually ISM, a soft data entry, is generally very bullish.

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Dig Deeper & The Picture Darkens” – ISM Services Survey Plunges To 19-Month Lows

After the “baffle ’em with bullshit” mixed picture on Manufacturing (ISM up, PMI down), all eyes were on Services for a signal of green shoots (which were just as mixed in February with ISM up and PMI down), BUT the signal was ugly!

  • US Manufacturing PMI dropped to weakest since June 2017
  • US Manufacturing ISM rebounded from Nov 2016 lows
  • US Services PMI dropped from 8-month highs
  • US Services ISM dropped to 56.1 from 59.7 to lowest since Aug 2017

So there you have it…no disagreement there – both ISM and PMI agree that services are slumping…

The Services ISM data was led by a collapse in New orders…

 

The US composite PMI slipped in March to 54.6 from 55.5 (as employment tumbles to weakest since June 2017)

Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“Another solid service sector performance helped offset a deteriorating trend in manufacturing to leave the PMI surveys indicative of robust economic growth in March. For the first quarter as a whole, the surveys are consistent with the economy growing at an annualized rate of approximately 2.5%, painting a relatively rosy picture compared to official data, which so far suggest GDP could come in slightly weaker.

However, Williamson is not entirely convinced…

Dig deeper and the picture darkens. Inflows of new work have moderated markedly compared to this time last year as manufacturing weakness and growing concerns about the economic outlook have increasingly spread to the service sector. Business optimism about the year ahead is now the lowest for two and a half years, posing downside risks to growth in coming months.

“Hiring has already been hit by the drop in business optimism and weakened inflows of new work, easing to the lowest since mid-2017, albeit still indicating non-farm payroll growth of around 165,000.

“However, the surveys also provide evidence that hiring is in part being constrained by labor shortages, which is limiting capacity in both manufacturing and services, causing backlogs of work to build up again in March and suggesting that businesses – especially in the service sector – will remain busy in the near term at least.”

Finally, we note that despite all the talk of global green shoots and a soaring stock market, private sector business confidence took a tumble in March, with the degree of optimism dipping to the lowest since September 2016.

But don’t worry, China’s PMI bounced!!

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Interesting: 25% of all Millennials are now longer having sex due to financial problems..plus other goodies

(courtesy Simon Black/Sovereign Man)

SWAMP STORIES

this is one big joke:  the Democrats are going to go on a nationwide tantrum if the Mueller report is not released forthwith

(courtesy zerohedge)

Unable To Wait Two Weeks, Democrats Plan Nationwide Tantrum If Mueller Report Not Released Tonight 

A coalition of prominent progressive grassroots organizations are planning a nationwide protest on Thursday if Attorney General William Barr does not release special counsel Robert Mueller’s full Russia report by a Tuesday deadline set by House Judiciary Committee chairman Jerrold Nadler.

As an aside – a neckless Nadler vehemently opposed releasing the full Clinton report in 1998 “as a matter of decency and protecting people’s privacy rights.”

Embedded video

Wojciech Pawelczyk 🇵🇱@PolishPatriotTM

Rep. Jerry Nadler wants to see the full Mueller report, exactly the opposite of what he said in 1998 when the Clinton report was finished 🤷‍♂️

 

Barr and Mueller are currently working to redact sensitive information ahead of the report’s full public release, which Barr says should be ready by mid-April or sooner.

Not soon enough, however, for Democrats hoping that the full report will provide “gotchas” that will prove Trump and his team committed malfeasance – despite Mueller’s conclusion that there was no collusion between Trump and Russia.

“We are calling for a National Day of Action on Thursday, April 4, to demand that Attorney General William Barr #ReleaseTheReport if he fails to meet the deadline set by congressional leaders of Tuesday, April 2,” announced the Trump Is Not Above The Law coalition on late Monday.

“Barr has offered an alternate timeline for a redacted version of the report,” said the group “but we deserve the full report and Congressional leaders and the American people expect it now.”

Common Cause

@CommonCause

🚨🚨BREAKING 🚨🚨

We’re joining @MoveOn @StandUpAmerica @Public_Citizen @peoplefor + more in announcing a NATIONAL DAY OF ACTION on April 4th to rally for the immediate release of the Mueller report!

Join us & find an event near you at http://commoncause.org/redline

As Common Dreams reported last week, Barr informed Congress in a letter that he plans to release a redacted version of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s 400-page report by mid-April.

Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.), chair of the House Judiciary Committee, was quick to reject Barr’s timeline and reiterate his demand for the full report—as well as all underlying evidence—by April 2.

On Monday, Nadler took steps  to authorize a subpoena for the complete report.

Expecting Barr to miss the deadline, advocacy groups—including MoveOn, Common Cause, Public Citizen, and Stand Up America—are planning demonstrations throughout the country to demand that all of Mueller’s findings be made public. –Common Dreams

So far more than 16,000 people have indicated via RSVP that they will protest outside the White House.

end
And it is done:  the House democrats vote to subpoena the Mueller report because they cannot wait two weeks
(courtesy zerohedge)

House Democrats Vote To Subpoena Mueller Report

The House Judiciary Committee chaired by Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) voted Wednesday to authorize a subpoena to compel the Department of Justice (DOJ) to hand the Mueller report over to Congress.

Passing by a margin of 24-17, the resolution authorizes subpoenas for special counsel Robert Mueller’s full report, as well as its underlying evidence.

Attorney General William Barr did not comply with an April 2 deadline set by Nadler, who has criticized the four-page summary of conclusions on what is believed to be a nearly 400-page report.

Barr and Mueller are currently working to redact sensitive information ahead of the report’s full public release, which Barr should be ready by mid-April or sooner, according to comments made by Barr to lawmakers last week.

In a letter to House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) and Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Friday, Barr wrote that the public version of the report would be scrubbed of sensitive national security information that could compromise sources and methods; grand jury material; information that could impact ongoing investigations; and “information that would unduly infringe on the personal privacy and reputational interests of peripheral third parties.” –The Hill

A redacted report in two weeks isn’t enough for House Democrats, who have demanded the immediate release of Mueller’s report – with no redactions.

Nadler was singing a different tune in 1998 when the Clinton report was finished, however – advocating for redactions “as a matter of decency and protecting people’s privacy rights.”

Embedded video

Wojciech Pawelczyk 🇵🇱@PolishPatriotTM

Rep. Jerry Nadler wants to see the full Mueller report, exactly the opposite of what he said in 1998 when the Clinton report was finished 🤷‍♂️

end

Comey is one big joke!

(courtesy Earle/Daily Mail)

Investigate what?’ Comey warns Trump’s call to probe the FBI’s investigators such as himself would further a ‘terrible cycle’ as he blasts Republicans for failing to denounce Trump’s ‘lock her up’ mantra

  • The former FBI Director addressed the president’s calls for the Mueller probe to be ‘looked at’ 
  • Comey, who had a key role in the Clinton email investigation, said he wasn’t afraid ‘personally’ 
  • Said a probe of Trump investigators would be yet another ‘dangerous step’
  • Said of Republicans who failed to condemn anti-Clinton chat: ‘Shame on them’ 

By GEOFF EARLE, DEPUTY U.S. POLITICAL EDITOR FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

Former FBI Director James Comey is warning that calls to probe the FBI and special counsel’s Russia probe would lead to ‘terrible cycle’ of investigation.

Comey’s own interactions with Trump before the president fired him were a subject of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. Now, withe the completion of the Mueller report, Trump and Republican allies called for an investigation of the Mueller probe, the Clinton email investigation, and any FBI misconduct that occurred.

Trump himself on Tuesday renewed his call to look at the origins of the Russia probe – the ‘beginnings and where it started, the whole situation.’

The president said some ‘very bad people started something that should have never been started’ and that they ‘did things that were very, very bad for our country and very, very illegal – and you could even say treasonous.’

'What would be the crime you'd be investigating?' former FBI Director James Comey said when asked about calls for an investigation of the Russia and Clinton email probes

‘What would be the crime you’d be investigating?’ former FBI Director James Comey said when asked about calls for an investigation of the Russia and Clinton email probes

Comey was asked in an interview with CNN whether he was fearful of what may come amid calls by Trump and powerful officials such as Trump ally Judiciary Chairman Sen. Lindsey Graham.

‘I don’t fear it personally. I fear it as a citizen, right? Investigate what? Investigate that investigations were conducted? What would be the crime you’d be investigating?’ Comey asked.

Then Comey was asked whether he and the FBI could have done more to ‘lock her up’ chants that were a staple of Trump’s 2016 campaign. Audience members continue to erupt into the cheer at Trump’s rallies.

Hillary Clinton has faulted Comey's decisions in the email investigation with contributing to her loss

Hillary Clinton has faulted Comey’s decisions in the email investigation with contributing to her loss

President Donald Trump is calling for the Mueller probe to be 'looked at' and claiming total exoneration

 

President Donald Trump is calling for the Mueller probe to be ‘looked at’ and claiming total exoneration

end
Trump is threatening to close the order with Mexico. This will hurt many foods like avocados will will not be able to enter the USA. Canada will be hurt badly.  However Trump is forgetting one major thing:  he desperately needs Mexico’s silver..stay tuned to this one..
(courtesy zero hedge)

“This Is A National Emergency:” Trump Vows To Close Border “If No Action Taken”

Anxieties about a possible order to close the US-Mexico border eased somewhat on Tuesday when President Trump lauded Mexican authorities on Tuesday for finally “apprehending large numbers of people at the border”…

…However, it appears the president has changed his mind once again, renewing his threat to close the border “if no action” is taken, and provoking some modest weakness in the Mexican peso as traders worried about the impact to trade.

Notably, Trump in his latest tweet shifted the object of blame from the Mexican government to Congress, which he demanded must “immediately eliminate the loopholes at the Border!”

Since November, Trump has periodically threatened to close the border, though few took these threats seriously until last week, when Trump said he could shut the border “for a long time” in the very near future, as the number of migrants crossing into the US has soared to a record high, straining local resources and overflowing customs and border patrol detention facilities.

The peso weakened on the headline, sliding toward its lows of the session.

MXN

end
the Ukrainian episode with his son to which we have highlighted to you in the past, is finally coming to light. A closed probe is now revived
and this should end Joe Biden’s bid for being President
(courtesy John Solomon)

Joe Biden’s 2020 Ukrainian nightmare: A closed probe is revived

BY JOHN SOLOMON, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR —  04/01/19 09:37 PM EDT

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE HILL

Two years after leaving office, Joe Biden couldn’t resist the temptation last year to brag to an audience of foreign policy specialists about the time as vice president that he strong-armed Ukraine into firing its top prosecutor.

In his own words, with video cameras rolling, Biden described how he threatened Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in March 2016 that the Obama administration would pull $1 billion in U.S. loan guarantees, sending the former Soviet republic toward insolvency, if it didn’t immediately fire Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin.

“I said, ‘You’re not getting the billion.’ I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: ‘I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money,’” Biden recalled telling Poroshenko.

“Well, son of a bitch, he got fired. And they put in place someone who was solid at the time,” Biden told the Council on Foreign Relations event, insisting that President Obama was in on the threat.

Interviews with a half-dozen senior Ukrainian officials confirm Biden’s account, though they claim the pressure was applied over several months in late 2015 and early 2016, not just six hours of one dramatic day. Whatever the case, Poroshenko and Ukraine’s parliament obliged by ending Shokin’s tenure as prosecutor. Shokin was facing steep criticism in Ukraine, and among some U.S. officials, for not bringing enough corruption prosecutions when he was fired.

But Ukrainian officials tell me there was one crucial piece of information that Biden must have known but didn’t mention to his audience: The prosecutor he got fired was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into the natural gas firm Burisma Holdings that employed Biden’s younger son, Hunter, as a board member.

U.S. banking records show Hunter Biden’s American-based firm, Rosemont Seneca Partners LLC, received regular transfers into one of its accounts — usually more than $166,000 a month — from Burisma from spring 2014 through fall 2015, during a period when Vice President Biden was the main U.S. official dealing with Ukraine and its tense relations with Russia.

The general prosecutor’s official file for the Burisma probe — shared with me by senior Ukrainian officials — shows prosecutors identified Hunter Biden, business partner Devon Archer and their firm, Rosemont Seneca, as potential recipients of money.

Shokin told me in written answers to questions that, before he was fired as general prosecutor, he had made “specific plans” for the investigation that “included interrogations and other crime-investigation procedures into all members of the executive board, including Hunter Biden.”

He added: “I would like to emphasize the fact that presumption of innocence is a principle in Ukraine” and that he couldn’t describe the evidence further.

William Russo, a spokesman for Joe Biden, and Hunter Biden did not respond to email messages Monday seeking comment. The phone number at Rosemont Seneca Partners LLC in Washington was no longer in service on Monday.

The timing of Hunter Biden’s and Archer’s appointment to Burisma’s board has been highlighted in the past, by The New York Times in December 2015 and in a 2016 book by conservative author Peter Schweizer.

Although Biden made no mention of his son in his 2018 speech, U.S. and Ukrainian authorities both told me Biden and his office clearly had to know about the general prosecutor’s probe of Burisma and his son’s role. They noted that:

  • Hunter Biden’s appointment to the board was widely reported in American media;
  • The U.S. Embassy in Kiev that coordinated Biden’s work in the country repeatedly and publicly discussed the general prosecutor’s case against Burisma;
  • Great Britain took very public action against Burisma while Joe Biden was working with that government on Ukraine issues;
  • Biden’s office was quoted, on the record, acknowledging Hunter Biden’s role in Burisma in a New York Times article about the general prosecutor’s Burisma case that appeared four months before Biden forced the firing of Shokin. The vice president’s office suggested in that article that Hunter Biden was a lawyer free to pursue his own private business deals.

President Obama named Biden the administration’s point man on Ukraine in February 2014, after a popular revolution ousted Russia-friendly President Viktor Yanukovych and as Moscow sent military forces into Ukraine’s Crimea territory.

According to Schweizer’s book, Vice President Biden met with Archer in April 2014 right as Archer was named to the board at Burisma. A month later, Hunter Biden was named to the board, to oversee Burisma’s legal team.

But the Ukrainian investigation and Joe Biden’s effort to fire the prosecutor overseeing it has escaped without much public debate.

Most of the general prosecutor’s investigative work on Burisma focused on three separate cases, and most stopped abruptly once Shokin was fired. The most prominent of the Burisma cases was transferred to a different Ukrainian agency, closely aligned with the U.S. Embassy in Kiev, known as the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), according to the case file and current General Prosecutor Yuriy Lutsenko.

NABU closed that case, and a second case involving alleged improper money transfers in London was dropped when Ukrainian officials failed to file the necessary documents by the required deadline. The general prosecutor’s office successfully secured a multimillion-dollar judgment in a tax evasion case, Lutsenko said. He did not say who was the actual defendant in that case.

As a result, the Biden family appeared to have escaped the potential for an embarrassing inquiry overseas in the final days of the Obama administration and during an election in which Democrat Hillary Clintonwas running for president in 2016.

But then, as Biden’s 2020 campaign ramped up over the past year, Lutsenko — the Ukrainian prosecutor that Biden once hailed as a “solid” replacement for Shokin — began looking into what happened with the Burisma case that had been shut down.

Lutsenko told me that, while reviewing the Burisma investigative files, he discovered “members of the Board obtained funds as well as another U.S.-based legal entity, Rosemont Seneca Partners LLC, for consulting services.”

Lutsenko said some of the evidence he knows about in the Burisma case may interest U.S. authorities and he’d like to present that information to new U.S. Attorney General William Barr, particularly the vice president’s intervention.

“Unfortunately, Mr. Biden had correlated and connected this aid with some of the HR (personnel) issues and changes in the prosecutor’s office,” Lutsenko said.

Nazar Kholodnytskyi, the lead anti-corruption prosecutor in Lutsenko’s office, confirmed to me in an interview that part of the Burisma investigation was reopened in 2018, after Joe Biden made his remarks. “We were able to start this case again,” Kholodnytskyi said.

But he said the separate Ukrainian police agency that investigates corruption has dragged its feet in gathering evidence. “We don’t see any result from this case one year after the reopening because of some external influence,” he said, declining to be more specific.

Ukraine is in the middle of a hard-fought presidential election, is a frequent target of intelligence operations by neighboring Russia and suffers from rampant political corruption nationwide. Thus, many Americans might take the restart of the Burisma case with a grain of salt, and rightfully so.

But what makes Lutsenko’s account compelling is that federal authorities in America, in an entirely different case, uncovered financial records showing just how much Hunter Biden’s and Archer’s company received from Burisma while Joe Biden acted as Obama’s point man on Ukraine.

Between April 2014 and October 2015, more than $3 million was paid out of Burisma accounts to an account linked to Biden’s and Archer’s Rosemont Seneca firm, according to the financial records placed in a federal court file in Manhattan in an unrelated case against Archer.

The bank records show that, on most months when Burisma money flowed, two wire transfers of $83,333.33 each were sent to the Rosemont Seneca–connected account on the same day. The same Rosemont Seneca–linked account typically then would pay Hunter Biden one or more payments ranging from $5,000 to $25,000 each. Prosecutors reviewed internal company documents and wanted to interview Hunter Biden and Archer about why they had received such payments, according to interviews.

Lutsenko said Ukrainian company board members legally can pay themselves for work they do if it benefits the company’s bottom line, but prosecutors never got to determine the merits of the payments to Rosemont because of the way the investigation was shut down.

As for Joe Biden’s intervention in getting Lutsenko’s predecessor fired in the midst of the Burisma investigation, Lutsenko suggested that was a matter to discuss with Attorney General Barr: “Of course, I would be happy to have a conversation with him about this issue.”

As the now-completed Russia collusion investigation showed us, every American deserves the right to be presumed innocent until evidence is made public or a conviction is secured, especially when some matters of a case involve foreigners. The same presumption should be afforded to Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, Devon Archer and Burisma in the Ukraine case.

Nonetheless, some hard questions should be answered by Biden as he prepares, potentially, to run for president in 2020: Was it appropriate for your son and his firm to cash in on Ukraine while you served as point man for Ukraine policy? What work was performed for the money Hunter Biden’s firm received? Did you know about the Burisma probe? And when it was publicly announced that your son worked for Burisma, should you have recused yourself from leveraging a U.S. policy to pressure the prosecutor who very publicly pursued Burisma?

John Solomon is an award-winning investigative journalist whose work over the years has exposed U.S. and FBI intelligence failures before the Sept. 11 attacks, federal scientists’ misuse of foster children and veterans in drug experiments, and numerous cases of political corruption. He serves as an investigative columnist and executive vice president for video at The Hill.

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:
COMPLETE SUMMARY OF KEY STORIES, FOR ALL OF MONDAY

ECB Officials Say Significant Support Needed amid Soft Inflation

President Mario Draghi warned of a “persistence of uncertainties” and said there’s a continued need for stimulus to boost inflation. His vice president, Luis de Guindos echoed that, saying “weaker growth momentum will leave its mark on domestic price pressures, slowing the adjustment of inflation toward our aim.”… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-01/draghi-points-to-persisting-risks-in-justifying-massive-stimulus

 

Economically sensitive stocks (transports, materials, commodities and industrials) rallied sharply on short covering and new buying.  Bonds declined smartly.

 

While bonds are forecasting recession, US stocks are signaling a new economic up leg is nigh.

 

Though most people know that stocks have soared in Q1, few realize that gasoline prices have rallied even more sharply.  Like stocks, gasoline bottomed on Christmas Eve (144.27 May contract).  Yesterday, May WTI Oil hit 190.43.  This is a 32% rally.

 

While the fin media and Street barkers herald inflating stock prices, they are ignoring the deleterious effects of surging gasoline and commodity prices.  There is a huge political tradeoff in these dynamics.

 

The average American will become irate with surging gas prices, regardless of how high stocks rise.

 

China’s manufacturing PMI uptick induced most of the known world to ignore unexpectedly ugly US February retail sales.  The headline line number showed a 0.2% m/m decline; +0.2% was consensus.  Ex-Autos declined 0.4%; +0.3% was consensus.  Ex-Autos & Gas tumbled 0.6%; +0.3% was expected.  Building materials tumbled 4.4%, the biggest decline since 2012.  Food & Beverage declined 1.2%, the biggest drop since 2009.   Gasoline sales, due to surging prices, jumped 1%.  Gasoline inflation kept the headline retail sales number from being worse.

 

A huge mitigating factor in the February Retail Sales Report: January was revised to 0.7% from 0.2%.  Anyone paying attention knew something was askew when Wal-Mart and others reported great January sales but the US beancounters reported the opposite.

 

US Census Bureau: Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales

U.S. total business end-of-month inventories for January 2019 were $2,013.9 billion, up 0.8 percent… from last month. U.S. total business sales were $1,449.6 billion, up 0.3 percent… from last month…   https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Markit’s March US Manufacturing PMI fell 0.1 to 52.4.  52.5 was expected.  ISM’s March Manufacturing PMI increased to 55.3 from 52.3; 52.5 was expected.

 

February Construction Spending for February increased 1.0%; -0.2% was consensus.  January was revised to 2.5% from 1.3%.

 

A few weeks ago, we noted that since the Crisis of 2008-2009, there has been a tendency for unexpectedly soft economic data to appear during severe winter months.  Several Polar Vortexes and snow storms occurred during these periods.  It appears there might be a problem with seasonal adjustments.

 

Nevertheless, soft winter data this decade have yielded to surprisingly strong spring data.  If this occurs again, Powell and his buds will have a huge problem, not to mention the accompanying ridicule.  How could Powell and his buds not be aware of the trend this decade that shows soft Q1 economic data due to severe weather tend are regularly followed by solid to strong Q2 economic data?

 

Markit’s Mar Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.5 from 47.6.  Germany’s Manf PMI dropped to 47.1 from 44.7.  Unchanged was expected.  Of course, China’s PMI obscured this ugly news, too.

 

The DJTA soared 2.4%.  It was the strongest major index despite US flights being grounded due to a ‘mass systems outage’ early Monday morning.  The problem was resolved before the NYSE open.

iPhone Prices in China are Slashed [almost 6%] – Again

The slash comes in response to China’s reduction of the tax burden for manufacturing and other sectors that began on April 1… The new regulations cut the value-added tax (VAT) for manufacturers to 13%, down from 16%, and the VAT rate for the transportation and construction sectors to 9% from 10%…

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-04-01/iphone-prices-in-china-are-slashed-again-101399784.html

Stocks are rallying but they may be about to hit their ‘ceiling,’ JP Morgan says

  • Adam Crisafulli, an executive director at J.P. Morgan, says the S&P 500 consensus earnings estimate for 2020 ticked down to about $181 to $182 per share in recent weeks from about $185.
  • This earnings estimate gets the S&P 500 to about 2,900 “and that should be thought of as a ceiling for the time being,” he says. “It’s not clear if improved growth will simply stabilize [the earnings estimate] at these levels or push it back up by a few dollars.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/01/stocks-rallying-but-may-be-about-to-hit-their-ceiling-jp-morgan-says.html

 

Positive aspects of previous session

Broad robust rally on China’s Manf PMI increase

The S&P 500 Index had a Golden Cross to the upside

Stocks closed near their highs

Negative aspects of previous session

Bonds tumbled

Fed rate cut expectations are about to tumble

Gasoline prices continue to surge

 

Ambiguous aspects of previous session

When will higher bond yields impact stocks?

 

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]

First Hour Up; Last Hour Up

 

Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low2869.40; 2834.40

 

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend for traders]: 2861.74

 

UK Parliament rejects all Brexit ‘indicative votes’ to find way forward – Last time, all eight ideas were voted down, a second round has failed yet again to find a majority for the UK’s path out of the EU.

https://www.dw.com/en/uk-parliament-rejects-all-brexit-indicative-votes-to-find-way-forward/a-48149796

 

Today – The S&P 500 Index experienced a positive Golden Cross (50-DMA above 200-DMA).  Normally, after a Monday rally and the end of upward seasonal bias, a Turnaround Tuesday to the downside would be a high probability.

 

However, the hope of an economic rebound from one Chinese data point might force enough defense asset allocators out of their positions to keep the equity rally and bond decline going. PS – Somewhere, Ben Bernanke is dreaming about ‘green shoots’.

 

The S&P 500 Index is 2.57% from its intraday all-time high of 2940.91.  The index is 2.2% from its closing high of 2830.75.  We have noted that April is a great month for making an important top after a Q1 surge.  All systems are ‘Go’ for a shot at the all-time highs.

 

In coming days, traders and wise guys will try to shoot for the number in a pump & dump scheme.  The schemers hope that a new high will induce manic short covering and momentum buying.

 

The blackout period for stock buybacks ahead of Q1 earnings results might be a consideration for astute traders.  ESMs are -2.75 as we write in quiet trading.

 

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2760; 100-day MA: 2694; 150-day MA: 2743; 200-day MA: 2757

The DJIA 50-day MA: 25,500; 100-day MA: 24,923; 150-day MA: 25,243; 200-day MA: 25,196

 

S&P 500 Index support: 2860, 2850, 2840, 2819-23, 2800, 2785-87, 2770, 2762, 2757 (200 DMA)

Resistance: 2880, 2894, 2900, 2920, 2930 (closing high), 2940.91 (All-time intraday high)

 

Expected economic data: Feb Durable Goods Orders -1.8%, ex-Trans 0.2%, Nondef ex-Air 0.1%, Shipments unchanged; Wards Mar Total Vehicles 16.7m

 

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender andMACD are negative – a close above 3057.16 triggers a buy signal

Weekly: Trender andMACD are positive – a close below 2587.86 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 2774.76 triggers a sell signal

Hourly: Trender andMACD are positive – a close below 2842.40 triggers a sell signal

 

@AnnCoulter comments & excerpts from “Kushner Inc.”: Kushner assured business executives that @realDonaldTrump wouldn’t govern as he had campaigned & would take a “rational” stance on immigration. “It came across that he really believed he could control Trump.”

    … After a meme of Jared & Ivanka in black tie next to a picture refugee girl hit the Internet, “Ivanka told her father that the travel ban would never make him liked and he needed to fix it.”

Jared & Ivanka “opposed every policy Trump had campaigned on: the repeal of Obamacare, the exit from the Paris Agreement on climate change, immigration … on and on.”

    “Kushner was having secret meetings with Senators Lindsey Graham and Dick Durbin about DACA [amnesty]… Trump had vowed during his campaign that he would end DACA. But here was Kushner advocating for the exact opposite.”

 

Did you know that Comey’s daughter has been an assistant US Attorney for the SDNY since 2015?

https://www.linkedin.com/in/maurene-comey-09022897

 

The Swamp is much deeper than we thought!  This raises enormous conflict of interest issues at the least and possibly something more sinister given reports of the SDNY’s quest to get Trump.

 

@Reuters: WITHDRAWAL: A May 23, 2018, story headlined, ‘Ukraine paid Trump lawyer Cohen to arrange White House talks -BBC,’ is being withdrawn after the BBC said its report was incorrect. All tweets of this story will be deleted. [Correction ten months after the fact?!]

 

George Papadopoulos @GeorgePapa19:To be clear: a woman in London, who was the FBI’s legal attaché in the U.K., and had a personal relationship to Bob Mueller after 9/11, encouraged me to meet Joseph Mifsud in Rome in March 2016 and introduced Bruce Ohr to the top U.K. prosecutor 4 days before the Trump tower mtg.

 

Ex-DJT Nat’l Security Advisor @SebGorka: This is the KEY to #RussiaGate.  @JohnBrennan used British Intelligence- GCHQ – to get around Constitutional protections and illegally spy on @realDonaldTrump and his team.

 

John Solomon: Joe Biden successfully pressured Ukraine to fire prosecutor investigating firm where son was working – Joe Biden’s 2020 Ukrainian nightmare: A closed probe is revived

    As for Joe Biden’s intervention in getting Lutsenko’s predecessor fired in the midst of the Burisma investigation, Lutsenko suggested that was a matter to discuss with Attorney General Barr: “Of course, I would be happy to have a conversation with him about this issue.”…

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/436816-joe-bidens-2020-ukrainian-nightmare-a-closed-probe-is-revived

END

COMPLETE KING REPORT FOR MAJOR STORIES FOR ALL OF TUESDAY

In Tuesday’s missive we listed Markit’s March German Manf PMI at 47.1.  It was 44.1

 

ESMs declined steadily during Asian trading and through early European trading.  After hitting a bottom of 2864.50 at 3:44 ET, ESMs rallied briskly to 2873.75 at 8:24 ET.

 

@CNBCnow: Delta Air Lines jumps more than 4.5% before the bell; company now sees Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.85 to $0.95 vs. $0.80 est

 

Engine Problems Force Singapore Airlines to Ground 2 Boeing Dreamliner

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-02/engine-problems-force-singapore-airlines-groun-2-boeing-dreamliners

 

After peaking about an hour before the NYSE open, ESMs declined until the NYSE open.  They then plunged.  Apparently the ESM rally during the usual window of manipulation was just another pump & dump scheme or an attempt to orchestrate a higher NYSE open than warranted.

 

Traders bought the opening plunge on the NYSE.  Unfortunately for conditioned traders, ESMs fell to a new regular session low within 5 minutes of the modest bounce.

 

But traders kept buying, a tug-of-war developed.  The session was only ten minutes old, but the battle lines were drawn.

 

A possible reason for the ESM action appeared: The PBoC said it would seek a police investigate into the circulation of false information that it had announced a RRR cut.  Who would do such a thing?  Putin?

 

A possible reason for the early US vacillation: NYSE Investigating Technical Issue on Connectivity

 

After forcing ESMs into positive territory near the end of the first hour of trading, ESMs and stocks tumbled until a rally materialized 15 minutes before the European close.

 

The ensuing contrived rally lasted 45 minutes.  After a midday retreat, the usual suspects orchestrated, or forced, the afternoon rally.  Trump abetted the rally with more BS/verbal intervention, stating for the umpteenth time that trade talks with China are going well. ESMs topped ten minutes before the NYSE close, equaling the full session high that appeared well before the NYSE open.

 

ESMs and stocks then declined into the close.  The ESM decline persisted until the CME session ended, 15 minutes after the NYSE close.  Barring news, when ESMs fall smartly immediately after the close, it means that too many traders got caught long and could not liquidate near the close.

 

The DJIA declined for the day because Walgreens declined 12.81% due to ugly earnings and a lower earnings guidance to flat from a previous forecast of 7% to 12% growth for 2019.

 

Walgreens stock on track for worst day since 2014 after ‘most difficult quarter’ ever

Net income fell to $1.16 billion, or $1.24 a share, from $1.35 billion, or $1.36 a share, in the same period a year ago. Excluding nonrecurring items, the company said adjusted EPS declined 5.4% to $1.64, below the $1.72 that FactSet analysts were expecting… Sales, which rose 4.6% to $34.53 billion, came in slightly below the FactSet consensus of $34.58 billion. Same-store retail sales in the U.S. fell 3.8%…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/walgreens-stock-on-track-for-worst-day-since-2014-after-most-difficult-quarter-ever-2019-04-02

 

China’s Liu to Visit Washington April 3 as Trade Talks Continue

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-23/china-s-liu-to-visit-washington-april-3-as-trade-talks-continue

 

Tariff, enforcement issues still hurdles to U.S.-China trade deal -U.S. Chamber

A trade deal between the United States and China is now more likely to be achieved than not, a top U.S. Chamber of Commerce official said on Tuesday, adding that negotiators needed to show progress this week on an enforcement mechanism and a plan to lift U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods… “This is a critical week.”    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/02/reuters-america-tariff-enforcement-issues-still-hurdles-to-u-s-china-trade-deal-u-s-chamber.html

 

After the close: GameStop plunges nearly 9% after reporting revenue miss, full-year comps below Wall St. expectations.    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=GME

 

[US Auto] Sales drop 3.1%; SAAR jumps to 17.42 million

Detroit 3, Toyota, Nissan drop on weaker car demand; Honda, Hyundai-Kia, VW Group, Subaru buck industry slowdown behind trucks    http://dlvr.it/R22xVz

 

US Durable Goods Orders for Feb fell 1.6% due to a 31.1% tumbled in nondefense aircraft and parts. A decline of 1.8% was expected.  Nondefense Ex-Air Orders declined 0.1%; +0.1% was expected.

 

EU Delivers U.K. Tax Bill as Brexit Deal Eludes Parliament

The European Union ordered the U.K. to claw back illegal tax breaks designed to lure multinationals to the nation — in a timely reminder that the EU still calls the shots on competition rules until Britain leaves the bloc…   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-02/eu-delivers-u-k-tax-bill-as-brexit-deal-eludes-parliament

 

Positive aspects of previous session

Orchestrated ESM rallies kept stocks from larger declines

 

Negative aspects of previous session

The DJIA and DJTA declined

ESM sell off near and after the NYSE close

 

Ambiguous aspects of previous session

When will higher bond yields impact stocks?

 

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]

First Hour Up a tad; Last Hour Down a tad

 

Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low2872.90; 2858.75

 

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend for traders]: 2866 .30

 

April Fools: Traders Chase another Unexplainable Bitcoin Rally

April Fool’s joke may have been the trigger for cryptocurrency rally [The market is really stupid!]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-02/bitcoin-s-60-minute-surge-isn-t-changing-pros-outlook-yet

 

Ex-Secret Service agent @dbongino: Everything that’s broken, or is breaking, is either run by government or has a heavy government foot print on it: public education, healthcare, student loans, Social Security, pensions, federal, state and local budgets. Government IS the cause of your problems.

 

WSJ: Trump to Fed Chairman Powell: ‘I Guess I’m Stuck with You’

The president blasted the central bank and its leader at three meetings in the past week alone

“Mnuchin gave me this guy,”… [Why does DJT rely on so many Swamp and GS types?  Jared/Ivanka?]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-to-fed-chairman-powell-i-guess-im-stuck-with-you-11554238931

 

Today – Traders and wise guys tried to jam ESMs and stocks higher on Tuesday, but negative news (see above) inhibited the effort.  It was disappointing that there was no significant follow through after Monday’s manic rally.

 

Barring overnight news, the probability is high that there will be another tug-of-war between those that have been rewarded by upward manipulation and sellers.  If an uptick in real selling appears, it should tip the scales to the downside.

 

In coming days, traders and wise guys will try to shoot for the number in a pump & dump scheme.  The schemers hope that a new high will induce manic short covering and momentum buying.

 

ESMs are +10.75 on this FT headline: US & CHINA Draw Closer to Final Trade Agreement

 

If a US-China trade deal is announced, be prepared to the formation of a significant equity top.

 

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2764; 100-day MA: 2695; 150-day MA: 2743; 200-day MA: 2757

The DJIA 50-day MA: 25,530; 100-day MA: 24,931; 150-day MA: 25,245; 200-day MA: 25,201

 

S&P 500 Index support: 2858-60, 2850, 2840, 2819-23, 2800, 2785-87, 2770, 2762, 2757 (200 DMA)

Resistance: 2873, 2880, 2894, 2900, 2920, 2930 (closing high), 2940.91 (All-time intraday high)

 

Expected economic data: March ADP Employment Change 175k; March Markit US Services PMI 54.8; ISM Non-Manf Index 58; Fed’s Bostic, George & Barkin 8:30 ET

 

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3057.16 triggers a buy signal

Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2587.86 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2788.01 triggers a sell signal

Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2848.11 triggers a sell signal

 

WaPo: A woman carrying Chinese passports was arrested after entering Mar-a-Lago with thumb drive containing malware, court documents say

     A criminal complaint says that Yujing Zhang told Secret Service agents that a Chinese friend instructed her to travel from Shanghai to the president’s Florida resort and make contact with a member of President Trump’s family. She is charged with entering a restricted facility and making false statements to federal officers… https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/woman-with-chinese-passports-malware-arrested-at-trumps-mar-a-lago-resort/2019/04/02/3399e426-5583-11e9-814f-e2f46684196e_story.html

 

@BernieSanders: An incredible 525,000 people have already contributed to our campaign.  The most common profession? Teachers… [No one should be surprised; speaks volumes about US education]

 

 

I WILL SEE YOU THURSDAY NIGHT
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