APRIL 17/GOLD DOWN 10 CENTS TO $1274.60//SILVER UP ONE CENT TO $14.99//ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AT THE GOLD COMEX///CHINA PREPARING ANOTHER STIMULUS TO JUMPSTART ITS ECONOMY//USA TRADE DEFICIT SHRINKS//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1274.60 DOWN $0.10 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.99 UP 1 CENT (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1274.00

 

 

silver: $14.99

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:78/91

GOLDMAN ISSUING: 5

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,272.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/16/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 04/18/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
365 C ED&F MAN CAPITA 1
661 C JP MORGAN 78
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 82 12
773 C G.H. FINANCIALS 2
845 C GOLDMAN SACHS C 5
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 91 91
MONTH TO DATE: 5,455

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 91 NOTICE(S) FOR 9100 OZ (0.283 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  5455 NOTICES FOR 545500 OZ  (16.967 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 774 for 3,870,000  oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$5194  UP $20

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $5196 UP 22

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, CONTINUED TO MARCH HIGHER TO THE TUNE OF A STRONG  SIZED 1666 CONTRACTS FROM 223,117 UP TO 224,783 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S  3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.  TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE MUST HAVE HAD  CONSIDERABLE NEW SPREADS INITIATED BY OUR SPREADERS (BANKERS).

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  2960 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2960 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2960 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2960 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 14.80 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

AND NOW 3.870 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

24,296 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 24,296 CONTRACTS) OR 121.48 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1868 CONTRACTS OR 9.344 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  121.48 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.34% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          689.65    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                           207.835   MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1666 DESPITE THE 3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2960 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED  A GIGANTIC SIZED: 4,626 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2960 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1732  OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS HUMONGOUS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.98 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.116 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 160% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR  nil OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW APRIL AT 3.870 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1073 CONTRACTS, TO 440,581 DESPITE THE HUGE DROP IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A LOSS IN PRICE OF $13.60//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  

 THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GIGANTIC SIZED 15,164 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 15,164 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 440,581. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,237 CONTRACTS: 1073 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 15,154 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 16,237 CONTRACTS OR 1,623,700 OZ OR 50.50 TONNES. YESTERDAY WE HAD A HUGE  FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF  $13.60.AND YET WITH THAT, WE STILL HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 50.50  TONNES!!!!!!.?????????????????????????????????????????? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 87,551 CONTRACTS OR 8,755,100 OR 272.32 TONNES (13 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6734 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 272.32 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 272.32/3550 x 100% TONNES = 7.67% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1647.90 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A FAIR SIZED  INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1073 DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICING ($13.60) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A  HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 15,164 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 15,164 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN OF 16,237 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

15,164 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1073 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 50.50 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN PRICE OF $13.60 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.????

 

 

 

we had:  91 notice(s) filed upon for 9100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10  TODAY 

A BIG CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO GOLD INVENTORIES AT THE GLD:

A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD//THIS GOLD WAS PROBABLY USED YESTERDAY IN THEIR RAID AGAINST GOLD//

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1666 CONTRACTS from 223,117 UPTO 224,783 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ENTER AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THUS SILVER HAS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY COMING UP AND THUS SPREADERS DO THE FOLLOWING:

“YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

THE CROOKS DID NOT DISAPPOINT US TODAY AS THE OI INCREASED BY A HUGE AMOUNT DESPITE THE SILVER LOSS. OF 3 CENTS

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 2960 FOR MAY AND JULY: 0 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2960 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF  1666 CONTRACTS TO THE 2960 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE  OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 4626  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 23.46MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH. AND NOW 3.870 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 3 CENT FALL IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2960 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.52 POINTS OR 0.29% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 5.19 POINTS OR 0.02%  /The Nikkei closed UP 56.31 POINTS OR 0.25%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .35%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.6892 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 64.41 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.15 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.6892 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6861 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan/China/HUAWEI

After cutting off ZTE equipment last year, Japan may stop the use of Huawei 5 G technology in Japan and that is upsetting the Chinese to no end

( zerohedge)

 

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China/

 

Although the huge stimulus in March had a strong effect on the numbers today, the internal consumption is of great concern to China. They point to three areas to show China’s continual problems:

the collapse in land sales, weak imports, and the unexpected decline in electricity consumption.

( zerohedge)

ii)Obviously last month’s stimulus was not enough:  China is now preparing a new stimulus to subsidize car and appliance purchases

( zerohedge)

iii)China’s bond vigilantes are watching closely as data suggests a huge spike in their PMI due to the massive stimulus. However bond yields are also rising.

( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)UK

Tory support is faltering and Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party is picking up steam.

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

IRAN

IRAN passes a vote declares the USA Central Command (CENTCOM) A “TERROR ORGANIZATION” meaning uSA troops in the Middle East will be treated as terrorists.

(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

The Bureau of Economic Policy in the Netherlands reveal that trade volume dropped a considerable 1.8% from last November until January.  No doubt that this was the reason for China’s huge stimulus move in March

( zerohedge)

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)VENEZUELA

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//early this morning/FOMC

 

 

ii)Market data

a)The deficit shrinks as exports to China surge.  Imports fell a bit.  However the big gain in trade was due to the exports of aircrafts and that will shrink badly due to the grounding of the Boeing’s troubled planes.

( zerohedge)

b)Manufacturing weakness continues as it is near its two year nadir

( zerohedge)

c)Despite the good numbers today:  USA soybean export plunge
(zerohedge)

 

 

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)IBM tumbles after reporting its worst revenue in 17 years.

( zerohedge)

b)We now have more stores closing so far this year than all last year

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

c)That escalated fast:  the beige book downgrades the USA economy as it is slowing down at a great pace

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

There seems to be a secret pack between Cummings, Waters and Schiff to target Trump as they try to subpoena all of his financial and banking records

(courtesy Sara Carter)

b)Barr clamps down on the catch and release program in the USA.  Illegal immigrants will now longer be allowed to be released on a bond that they promise to appear before an immigration judge.  It also means that Barr expands the “indefinite detention” period for migrants

(courtesy zerohedge)

c)Yuma shuts its doors to illegals as it declares a state of emergency

( Sara Carter.Jennie Taer)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY 1073 CONTRACTS.TO A LEVEL OF 440,581 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($13.60) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING) 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 15,164 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR APRIL 0 FOR JUNE ’19: 15,165 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  15165 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 16,237 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 15,164 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED 1211 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::16,237 contracts OR 1,623,700 OZ OR 50.50 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of APRIL and here the open interest stands at 978 contracts, having LOST 560 contracts.

We had 1143 notices filed upon yesterday, so we GAINED ANOTHER WHOPPING 583 contracts or an additional 583,000 oz will  stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.  THE GOLD COMEX ,AND FOR THAT MATTER THE GLOBE, IS VOID OF GOLD AS THE CROOKS DESPERATELY SEARCH FOR BADLY NEEDED GOLD. TO PUT OUT FIRES OCCURRING ELSEWHERE!! AGAIN FOR THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WE HAD A HUGE INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AND THE ODDS ARE THAT IT WAS THE BANKERS  SEARCHING FOR METAL AS OPPOSED TO A STRONG SPECULATOR GOING AFTER PHYSICAL GOLD…THUS THE TRUE DEFINITION OF QUEUE JUMPING.

 

 

The next non active delivery month after  APRIL is the NON active delivery month is MAY and here the OI FELL by 70 contracts DOWN to 1682 contracts. The next contract month after May is June and it is an active month.  Here the open interest ROSE by 1655 contracts UP to 323,874 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 91 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 9100 OZ. (

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1666 CONTRACTS FROM 223,117 UP TO 224,783(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 3  CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 0 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACT ON THE DAY.

WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED UP YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS INVESTORS REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. THE COMEX IS RUNNING OUT OF METAL TO FEED THE CROOKS.

 

 

 

 

 

AFTER APRIL, WE HAVE THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 1979 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 100,492. CONTRACTS.. THE NEXT MONTH OF JUNE GAINED 13 CONTRACTS TO 134. AFTER JUNE, THE VERY BIG DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HAD A GAIN OF 3346 CONTRACTS UP TO 85,699 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 4,626 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1666 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2960 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4626 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS HUMONGOUS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY ?????

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  308,893  CONTRACTS  volume high due to raid.

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  244,533  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  APRIL/GOLD

APRIL 17 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
91 notice(s)
 9100 OZ
(0.283TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
707 contracts
(70700 oz)
2.199 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5455 notices
545,500 OZ
16.967 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had no dealer entries:

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero oz

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ zero  entries  today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

(maybe investors are taking our advice by not storing their gold at the comex.)

this will hurt our bankers as they need to replace leased gold as all gold stored at the gold comex is unallocated.

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil oz

 

we had 0 adjustments…

FOR THE APRIL 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  91 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5455) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (798 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (91 x 100 oz per contract) equals 616,200 OZ OR 19.166 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (5455 x 100 oz)  + (798)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (91 x 100 oz )which equals 616200oz standing OR 19.166 TONNES in this  active delivery month of APRIL.

 

 

WE GAINED TODAY 583  CONTRACTS OR 583,000  ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.(AS WELL AS NEGATINGING A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EFFORTS).  THIS IS QUEUE JUMPING AT ITS FINEST!!!! THIS IS THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE MONSTROUS GAIN AT THE GOLD COMEX AND THIS HAS NEVER EVER HAPPENED AT THE COMEX SINCE IT’S INCEPTION. AS I DESCRIBED TO YOU LAST MONTH THE GOLD COMEX IS IN SERIOUS STRESS ALONG WITH THE SILVER COMEX.  YOU CAN ALSO BET THE FARM THAT BASEL III IS PLAYING A BIG PART IN THIS AS THE BANKS SCRAMBLE TO REMOVE PAPER GOLD COLLATERAL ON THEIR BOOKS FOR THE REAL STUFF.

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 13.689 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 19.166 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING

THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  440,114.329 oz or  13.689 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,937404.407 oz 246.88 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 1.201819.897 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

AT CONCLUSION APRIL 30/2018:  ONLY 4.6407 TONNES STOOD AS THE REST MIGRATED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S. AT THE BEGINNING OF APRIL IT LOOKED LIKE WE WERE GOING TO HAVE A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR WHERE MANY MORPH TO LONDON BECAUSE THERE IS NO METAL AT THE COMEX. WE ARE PROVEN WRONG: WE ARE DOING MUCH BETTER IN 2019 AS WE NOW HAVE  TO 19.166 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING.

 

 

IN THE LAST 31 MONTHS 108 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

APRIL 17 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
535,414.115 oz

CNT

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
557,757.000 oz
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 774 contracts

3,870,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan:  557,757.000  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/305 million)

 

into everybody else: zero

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  557,757.000 oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of CNT:  535,414.115  oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 535,414.115   oz

 

we had 2 adjustments..

i) Out of CNT:  598,418.500 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

ii) JPMorgan removes 3051.17 oz as an accounting error

 

total dealer silver:  90.323 million

total dealer + customer silver:  305.130 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR  nil  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 774 x 5,000 oz = 3,870,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (0) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month:774(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL( 0) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 3,870,000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained  0 contracts or an 5,000 NIL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

ON  FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 29/2018: WE HAD 1,805,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY FOR THE  APRIL 2018 DELIVERY MONTH

AT CONCLUSION OF APRIL 2018: 2,485,000 OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS ALREADY WELL DEVELOPED IN SILVER. (APRIL IS A NON ACTIVE SILVER DELIVERY MONTH)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  76,547 CONTRACTS  (volumes high because of the raid.

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 92,292 CONTRACTS…

..volume extremely high due to raid

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 92,293 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 461 million OZ  65.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.35% (APRIL 17/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.04% to NAV (APRIL 17/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.08%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.82/TRADING 12.28/DISCOUNT 3421

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

 

MARCH 27/SURPRISING! WITH GOLD DOWN AGAIN BY $4.05, THE CROOKS NEEDED TO PUT GOLD BACK INTO THE GLD: THEY ADDED 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 781.03 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.85: A STRONG 2.94 TONNES DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 781.03 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $4.60 TODAY: A MASSIVE 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 779.27 TONNES AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1..18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED:  TOTAL GLD INVENTORY REMAINING:  778.09 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.70: A BIG CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.04 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT AGAIN OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.53 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $1.70: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.87 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY AND THIS GOLD HAS BEEN USED IN THE WHACKING PROCESS YESTERDAY AND TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD ANOTHER $12.50 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

 

 

 

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APRIL 17/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 752.27 tonnes

*IN LAST 580 TRADING DAYS: 182.68 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 480 TRADING DAYS: A NET 15.86 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

WE MUST BE GETTING CLOSER TO THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE GLD.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//

April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 656,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.301 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.957 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 469,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.957 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.356 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TODAY AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 1.17 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 516,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: STRANGE!! TWO TRANSACTIONS!!  IN THE MORNING A WITHDRAWAL OF 703,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307,800 OZ/ IN THE AFTERNOON: A DEPOSIT OF 1.56 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY FINALLY RESTS AT 309.160 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

 

 

APRIL 17/2019:

 

Inventory 309.167 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.10/ and libor 6 month duration 2.63

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .53

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.47%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.76

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.31

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

World Trade Suffers Biggest Collapse Since Financial Crisis

via Zero Hedge

The recent collapse in world trade volume is the worst since the financial crisis and as dangerous as during the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, according to The Telegraph.

Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis revealed that world trade volume dropped 1.8% in the three months to January compared to the preceding three months as a synchronized global downturn gained momentum.

“An industrial slump has been triggered by a perfect storm of factors, including China’s slowdown, the car industry downturn, Brexit paralysis and Donald Trump’s attempt to upend the international trade system with tariffs on European and Chinese goods,” explained The Telegraph.

A further escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China could spark a world trade recession. Already, Washington has imposed steep tariffs on Chinese imports worth $250bn in a tit-for-tat battle with industrial centers in Asia and Germany experiencing sharp drops in trade in recent months.

The Telegraph describes the sudden loss in trade momentum is equivalent to the months after the dot com bubble imploded in 2001 when trade volumes sank as much as 2.2%. Today’s current move is the biggest fall since the financial crisis of 2007–2008 when global trade plummeted, diving as much as 12.7%.

The International Monetary Fund warned last week that this is a “delicate moment” for the global economy as many countries are in the midst of a severe slowdown.

The global economy has “lost further momentum” in the last six months, said IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde.

Lagarde pinned trade volume deterioration on decelerating global growth and “the impact of increased trade tensions on spending”  on producer goods.

The global downturn in trade is widespread geographically. The synchronized slowdown is expected to stabilize beyond 2020; however, in the meantime, it’s likely the world could be headed for a trade recession, if not already in one.

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News and Commentary

Gold near 4-month low as China GDP fuels risk sentiment (Reuters.com)
Gold falls 1 pct to 2019 low as equities, dollar gain (Reuters.com)
White House talking to other possible Fed candidates: Kudlow (Reuters.com)
Oil prices rise for a second day, high of year, on China demand, U.S. stockpile drop (Reuters.com)

Exclusive Offer Information Here – Offer Ends This Thursday (April 18) 

Precious Metals Update Video: Silver pointing to $14.55 support (SilverSeek.com)
World Trade Suffers Biggest Collapse Since Financial Crisis (ZeroHedge.com)

China’s Bond Vigilantes Loom As Economic Data Stabilizes (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

16 Apr: USD 1,283.75, GBP 981.30 & EUR 1,137.40 per ounce
15 Apr: USD 1,286.75, GBP 982.43 & EUR 1,137.23 per ounce
12 Apr: USD 1,296.15, GBP 991.68 & EUR 1,146.06 per ounce
11 Apr: USD 1,304.65, GBP 997.01 & EUR 1,152.43 per ounce
10 Apr1: USD 1,304.80, GBP 998.04 & EUR 1,157.44 per ounce
09 Apr: USD 1,303.00, GBP 995.13 & EUR 1,155.00 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

16 Apr: USD 14.94, GBP 11.42 & EUR 13.22 per ounce
15 Apr: USD 14.93, GBP 11.39 & EUR 13.20 per ounce
12 Apr: USD 15.06, GBP 11.51 & EUR 13.31 per ounce
11 Apr: USD 15.25, GBP 11.66 & EUR 13.53 per ounce
10 Apr: USD 15.25, GBP 11.66 & EUR 13.53 per ounce
09 Apr: USD 15.25, GBP 11.66 & EUR 13.53 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Exclusive Offer: Secure Gold and Silver Storage In Zurich For Free For Six Months
– There Is Too Much Debt In The World – World Bank
– How to Store Gold in an Uncertain World
– The ECB Is Struggling With Inflation, Interest Rates and The Outlook 
– Russia Dumps U.S. Dollars and Buys Gold As “Safety Metal”

– How A ‘No Deal’ Brexit Could Lead To The “Lehmanization” Of Europe

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

Exclusive Offer: S

 

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

END
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.6892/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.6861   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 9.52 or 0.29%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 5.19 points or 0.02%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 56.31 POINTS OR 0.25%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN/EXCEPT LONDON 

 

 

 

 

 

USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.93/Euro RISES TO 1.1309

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.88/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 64.41 and Brent: 72.15

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +09%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.63% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.12%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.54: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.31

3k Gold at $1276.00 silver at:15.00   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 25/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.83

3m oil into the 64 dollar handle for WTI and 71 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.00 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0088 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1408 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.09%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.61% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.01%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7402..GETTING VERY DANGEROUS

 

Global Stocks Rise Following Blowout Chinese Data

Following last night’s blockbuster Chinese data, when virtually every key data point beat expectations in some cases notably, global markets and bond yields are broadly higher, if mutedly so, as traders evaluated whether China’s economic recovery will be enough to put rate hikes back on the table even as Germany’s economy ministry revised its growth forecast lower to just 0.5%. Global markets and futures are a sea of green but tentatively so as

As reported last night, China’s Q1 GDP came in one tenth above expectations at 6.4% yoy while all of the March activity indicators surprised on the upside with industrial production surging at +8.5% yoy (vs. +5.9% yoy expected) – the highest since July 2014. Retail sales printed at +8.7% yoy (vs. +8.4% yoy expected), YTD fixed assets ex rural came in line with consensus at +6.3% yoy and the jobless rate fell one tenth to 5.2%. This data confirms what many had been expecting given the massive injection in credit helped push China’s credit impulse numbers higher in recent months and should help European data over the coming weeks. The downside to the numbers will be a more hawkish PBOC. Their monetary policy statement yesterday described the appropriate policy stance as “moderately tight” and it seems today they injected much less liquidity into the market as was expected. So that’s the only sting in the tail to these numbers.

The far stronger Chinese data appears to have also helped short circuit rate cut expectations for the time being, and as a result the risk asset response was marginal at best, with US equity futures rising less than 0.2% with gains were capped by disappointing quarterly reports from Netflix and IBM, while the Shanghai Composite flirted with the unchanged line for much of the session before closing just 0.3% higher.

Meanwhile a forecast of faster growth due to demand from China by semiconductor equipment maker ASML, pushed U.S. chipmakers higher in premarket trading, adding to yesterday’s historic Qualcomm gains after the company settled its long-running litigation with Apple; Intel, Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia gained between 0.5% and 3.6%. At the same time, IBM declined 3.5% after reporting a bigger-than-expected drop in quarterly revenue.

Where things got interesting, is that after a subdued start, European stocks pushed into positive territory after reports China was considering even more stimulus measures to bolster consumption, with autos the notable outperformer, shrugging off weak sales numbers. Meanwhile, the German Government cut its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% vs. prev. 1.0%, in line with expectations, even as it projects a rebound to 1.5% in 2020; Inflation is seen at 1.5% in 2019, 1.8% in 2020.

This followed an advance in Asian shares, with Japan and Shanghai rising modestly after data showed China’s economic growth, industrial production and retail sales all better-than-expected

With earnings season in full swing, analysts now expect first-quarter S&P 500 profits to have dropped 1.8% year-on-year, according to Refinitiv data. While a solid improvement over recent estimates, it would still mark the first earnings contraction since 2016. Of the 42 S&P 500 companies that have posted so far, 81% have beaten consensus, compared with the 65% average beat rate going back to 1994.

While Brexit news are on the backburner this week, local UK Conservative party chairmen are circulating a petition which seeks an Extraordinary General Meeting to pass a no-confidence vote in PM May. The report states that the party will be obliged to hold a meeting if more than 65 association chairmen sign the motion; so far between 40-50 have signed it, with expectations that the threshold could be passed next week.

In global rates, Bund and USTs grind lower, 10Y German yields rise ~2bps with the long end steady after a decent auction. Gilt curve bear flattens slightly, 10Y Gilt futures find support at Monday’s lows after U.K. inflation stays below target. BTPs trade sideways, peripheral yield spreads all marginally tighter to core.

US Treasury futures broadly held earlier losses spurred by strong Chinese economic data. Yields were cheaper by 1.5bp-2bp from 5-year to long end, less in front end, steepening 2s10s by ~1bp; 10-year yields 2.605% after touching 2.612% during European morning, highest since March 20. Futures volumes were robust through 7am ET, 20% above 20-day average in TYM9.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index traded lower but within Tuesday’s range while commodity currencies traded well, with AUD the best performer in G-10, NZD continues to lag after soft inflation data. Yuan strength continues in Europe, rising ~0.4% vs USD following China’s data report.

In commodities, WTI crude traded sideways around Tuesday’s best levels as base metals predictably pushed higher led by copper and aluminium.

On the economic front, a Commerce Department report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show U.S. trade deficit widening to $53.5 billion in February; we also get data on wholesale inventories and the Fed’s Beige Book. Abbott, Morgan Stanley, PepsiCo, and Alcoa are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,916.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 388.37
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 163.92
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 546.39
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 22,277.97
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,630.68
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.02% to 30,124.68
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,263.12
  • Sensex up 1% to 39,275.64
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,256.38
  • Kospi down 0.1% to 2,245.89
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 0.085%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1316
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 2.223%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.082%
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $72.23/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,276.03
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.88

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China’s economy rebounded through the first quarter, offering the government room for maneuver as trade negotiations with the U.S. enter a crucial stage. The economy expanded 6.4%, exceeding economist estimates. Factory output and retail sales also beat expectations in March to ease concerns about a slowdown
  • Investors are the most optimistic on the euro in a year as conviction grows that Europe’s economy is recovering. Three-month risk reversals on the common currency, a gauge of sentiment, have turned in favor of calls over puts
  • U.K. inflation unexpectedly stayed below target last month. The figures means wages are rising faster than prices, a boost for consumer spending, key for the British economy. The lack of headline inflationary pressure gives policy makers breathing space to keep interest rates on hold until the Brexit crisis is resolved
  • Germany’s gross domestic product is to grow 0.5%, half as much as previously forecast amid slowing global expansion and concerns over Brexit and trade disputes, the economy ministry said on Wednesday.
  • Foxconn billionaire founder Terry Gou announced Wednesday he’s running for Taiwan’s presidency, shaking up a race that will determine whether the island moves closer to China. Foxconn Technology Group is the main assembler of iPhones
  • GAM Holding AG jumped the most since December after the company reported slowing outflows and said it would soon complete the liquidation of its scandal-hit bond fund

Asian equity markets traded indecisively following the cautious gains on Wall St due to mixed earnings and as the region failed to fully benefit from a slew of better than expected Chinese data. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was negative with the index led lower by underperformance in the mining sector after BHP reported weaker quarterly production numbers and amid declines in Chinese iron ore prices after Vale received approval to resume Brucutu mine operations, while Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) was positive although initial price action had mirrored a choppy currency. Hang Seng (U/C) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were indecisive with only brief support seen despite the better than expected Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, as some suggested the data dampens prospects of PBoC action and after the central bank also recently suggested a preference for restraint in its quarterly monetary policy document. Furthermore, the PBoC conducted a liquidity injection of CNY 160bln through 7-day reverse repos but only announced CNY 200bln in MLF loans vs. the expiring CNY 366.5bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally lower as Japanese stocks remained afloat and on spillover selling from T-notes, while the US 30yr yield eyed the 3.0% level for the first time in nearly a month. Japan and the US have agreed to accelerate trade talks after an initial meeting in Washington suggested the two nations will stick to a narrow range of subjects

Top Asian News

  • PBOC Trims Liquidity Supply in Sign It’s Dialing Back Stimulus
  • Nippon Paint Buying Australia’s DuluxGroup for $2.7 Billio
  • Jokowi Takes Early Lead in Unofficial Indonesia Vote Counts
  • Turkish Opposition Claims Win in Istanbul After Vote Recount
  • Singapore Takes Over Water Plant at Heart of Hyflux Debacle

Major European indices are little changed [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%] following on from indecisive overnight trade as Asian equity market were unable to capitalise on the strong Chinses data. The AEX (+0.2%) is marginally outperforming its peers, boosted by index heavyweight ASML (+1.5%) who have around a 12% weighting in the AEX and are higher following their earnings and the Co. confirming their full year guidance. Sectors are mixed, with underperformance seen in material names at the open, with the sector weighed on by BHP (-2.6%) after the Co. lowered their FY19 output guidance and Rio Tinto (-2.8%) in the red after being downgraded. Other notable movers this morning include ABB (+5.4%) following earnings and the surprise resignation of the Co’s CEO Spiesshofer, after being unable to placate shareholders with the sale of their power grid division in December. Elsewhere, Roche (+0.1%) have fallen from opening highs of around 1.6%; however, price action for the Co. was initially driven by the announcement that they are raising FY19 outlook to mid-single digit growth vs. Prev. low-mid single digit range, alongside expectations for further dividend increases.

Top European News

  • Tech Stocks Outperform on ASML, Ericsson Results, Chip Gains
  • Italy’s Populist Leaders Besiege the Central Bank, Lenders
  • Juventus Plunges as Champions League Upset Sends Ajax Soaring
  • ABB Chief Steps Down After Power-Grid Split Fails to Impress
  • Pendragon Tumbles as U.K. Car-Price Slump Forces Strategy Review

In FX, first we look at USD, CNY – China’s economy unexpectedly held up in Q1 despite a slew of calls for a March bottom. GDP growth for the quarter topped estimates at 6.4% Y/Y, within the country’s 2019 target of 6.0-6.5%, whilst March IP and retail sales beats also provided extra impetus for the Yuan which breached 6.70 to the downside against the Dollar to print a low of just above 6.68. Hence, DXY lost the 97.000 handle upon the release and continues to edge lower in early EU trade. The Dollar index currently resides just off lows of 96.810 ahead of its 50 DMA at around 96.800. A light calendar for the US sees February trade data released at 13:30BST, ahead of Fed voter (and notorious dove) Bullard’s speech on the US economy and monetary policy.

  • AUD, NZD – The Aussie is the marked beneficiary from the upbeat Chinese data wherein the jump in industrial production and a maintained GDP growth aided AUD/USD to briefly reclaim 0.7200 to the upside (from an intraday low of 0.7150) for the first time since February. The pair currently resides just below the figure, albeit above its 200 DMA at 0.7193 with Aussie jobs data on the overnight docket. Note: around USD 1.5bln options are set to expire between strikes 0.7190-7200. Conversely, the Kiwi does not bode so well amid dismal CPI figures in which markets pricing for a May OCR cut shifted to above 50%. On a brighter note for the NZD/USD, the overnight Chinese data resurrected the currency from a low of 0.6670 (vs. pre-data high of 0.6775) before stabilising above its 200 DMA at around 0.6730.
  • EUR, GBP – An upbeat day for the Euro thus far amid the weakness in the Buck. The single currency was little swayed by the release of unrevised EZ inflation finals and the German government’s cut to 2019 GDP growth forecasts as was widely expected. EUR/USD breached its 50 DMA at 1.1300 to the upside in early hours and remains north of the figure where 1.4bln in options are set to expire at today’s NY cut. Elsewhere, Sterling took a hit from the benign inflation figures in which headline inflation printed at 1.9%, below the forecast 2.0%. As such, Cable lost the 1.3050 handle and resides close to session lows at 1.3033 ahead of its 50 WMA at 1.3029. ING argues that “British Retail Consortium had suggested that wholesale food costs had risen, on the back of adverse weather and higher global commodity prices”, hence overall inflation could be bumped up next month, possibly to the 2% target when combined with the rise in household energy caps. GBP now awaits for any potential direction from BoE Governor Carney scheduled to speak at 14:00BST.
  • CAD – Another G10 winner from the pullback in the Dollar, also underpinned from the rise in oil prices following last night’s surprise drawdown in API stocks. USD/CAD currently resides below its 100 DMA at 1.3327, having briefly breached its 50 DMA to the downside at 1.3314 ahead of Canadian inflation data this afternoon, with headline expected to tick up to 1.9% from 1.5%.
  • New Zealand CPI (Q1) Q/Q 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%). (Newswires) New Zealand CPI (Q1) Y/Y 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.9%) New Zealand RBNZ Sectoral Factor Model Inflation 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%)

In commodities, Brent (+0.6%) and WTI (+0.6%) prices are firmer with prices supported by the unexpected API draw of 3.1M vs. Exp. build of 1.7M. Elsewhere, strike action at Shells Pernis oil refinery [capacity of 404k BPD] is still ongoing, with most recent updates that union leaders state that the refinery is to remain at 65% operating rate, and there is currently no indication of when the refinery will return to full operation. Separately, Saudi Aramco are reportedly to purchase the 50% stake that Shell currently owns in SASREF, which is a joint venture between the two Co’s with a refining capacity in excess of 300k BPD. Later in the session we have the EIA weekly report, and due to scheduling for Easter holidays the Baker Hughes rig count will be released Thursday April 18th. Gold is flat and trading within a narrow USD 4/oz range, with price action from the softer dollar and stronger than expected Chinese data largely cancelling each other out. As such the yellow metal, is trading just above the prior sessions low of around USD 1272, which was the metals lowest level since December 27th. Elsewhere, the world’s largest iron ore miner Vale say they intend to resume operations at their Brucutu operations within the next 72 hours weighing on both the mining index and iron ore prices.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications -3.5%, prior -5.6%
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $53.4b deficit, prior $51.1b deficit
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 1.2%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
  • 12:30pm: Fed’s Harker Speaks on the Economic Outlook
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s Bullard Speaks at Hyman Minsky Conference
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
  • 5:30pm: New York Fed’s Logan Speaks at Money Marketeers of New York

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Over the last two days I’ve been doing an internal DB scheme where MD’s have multiple open door slots for more junior staff. The expectation is that we connect with people at an earlier stage of their career from all over the firm and offer them any guidance we can give. There were quite a few recent graduates signed up and in having the enjoyable meetings I couldn’t help chuckle at how different my experience as a graduate was in the mid 1990s to those we hire today. In my first two years (in sales) I got 30 people’s breakfast and coffees every day, burned through two suits with all the loose change making holes in my pockets, photocopied 100 x 50 pages of corporate bond price sheets everyday to be on all sales and traders desk by the time they got in at 7am and was generally treated like an errand boy. At one point I was asked to go 5 miles in a taxi to get food from my then boss’s favourite fish and chip shop one Friday lunchtime. My favourite memory though was that every grad was given an older mentor outside of his area to use as a sounding board. However my one was a grumpy guy in his late 40s who couldn’t think of anything worse than being a mentor. He was forced to take me out to lunch in my earliest days but instead took a friend of his and asked me to sit at the bar while he dined with his friend. I didn’t go back to him for any subsequent advice I sought. So it’s fair to say that the City has changed for the better over the last 25 years. So if any graduate wants some advice I’ll be very happy to provide it… in return for a coffee, a bacon sarnie and a fish supper!!! And maybe some painting and decorating at home!

We’re straight to Asia this morning where the latest Chinese growth data and activity indicators are out. They confirm our 2019 belief that the economy is improving as China’s mini stimulus filters through the economy. To start with China’s Q1 GDP came in one tenth above expectations at 6.4% yoy while all of the March activity indicators surprised on the upside with industrial production surging at +8.5% yoy (vs. +5.9% yoy expected) – the highest since July 2014. Retail sales printed at +8.7% yoy (vs. +8.4% yoy expected), YTD fixed assets ex rural came in line with consensus at +6.3% yoy and the jobless rate fell one tenth to 5.2%. This data confirms what we’d been expecting given the credit impulse numbers in recent months and should help European data over the coming weeks. The downside to the numbers will be a more hawkish PBOC. Their monetary policy statement yesterday described the appropriate policy stance as “moderately tight” and it seems today they injected much less liquidity into the market as was expected. So that’s the only sting in the tail to these numbers.

China’s markets have probably been weighing up these conflicting forces as the Shanghai Comp is currently trading flat after oscillating between gains and losses of as much as +0.47% and -0.42% respectively. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (-0.22%) is down while the Nikkei (+0.29%) and Kospi (+0.02%) are up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flat (+0.07%).

In other news, Japan’s economy minister Toshimitsu Motegi said that the first phase of trade talks with the US focused on agriculture and cars, with digital trade set to be discussed at a later date. He added, “From the next session onwards we will speed up discussions toward an early agreement, and will discuss digital trade at an appropriate time.” This morning we saw Japan’s March trade data with the adjusted trade balance standing at -JPY 177.8bn (vs. -JPY 242.5bn expected) as a slowdown in imports (at +1.1% yoy vs. +2.8% yoy expected) outpaced a slowdown in exports (at -2.4% yoy vs. -2.6% yoy expected), marking the fourth consecutive month where exports have shrunk.

The moves this morning follow another fairly damp squib of a day on Wall Street yesterday, albeit one which ended with markets nudging a bit higher. Indeed global equities edged up across the board as did bond yields. The S&P 500 finished +0.05% with volumes over 10% below average and with an intraday range of 0.96% which was the 6th smallest this year. It wasn’t a lot different for the NASDAQ (+0.30%) and DOW (+0.26%), with all three major US indexes now hovering within 2% of their all-time highs. Prior to this, the STOXX 600 edged up +0.29%. US HY spreads ended -3bps tighter while Treasuries (+3.6bps) nudged back up to 2.591%, their highest level in a month, with the move driven by real yields not inflation breakevens. The 2s10s yield curve steepened 1.8bps to 17.9 bps, edging toward the top of its year-to-date range of between 12-20 bps.

With bigger fish to fry for markets including this morning’s China data and the PMIs tomorrow though, it was earnings which by and large dictated the tempo yesterday with the headline reporters being Bank of America before the bell and Netflix after. Like all the other US banks so far, BoA earnings beat while sales also came ahead of consensus, though management also pointed towards an expected slowdown in net interest income for the remainder of the year. The share price pared a loss of -2.82% to end the session +0.10%, as the broader banks index advanced +1.35%, partially boosted by the rise in treasury yields. Morgan Stanley numbers – the last of the big US banks to report – are out today.

Away from BofA we also saw earnings beats for Blackrock (shares +3.24%) and Johnson & Johnson (+1.10%), though UnitedHealth (-4.01%) disappointed. Their CEO said that US political proposals for universal health insurance would result in “wholesale disruption” to the existing healthcare industry. After the close Netflix’s earnings basically met expectations overall as first quarter subscriber growth beat consensus forecasts but the company’s estimates moving forward were lower than expected. The share price slipped -0.84% overnight. Separately, freight giant CSX shares rose +4.63% after the close on strong profits and shipping volumes. It’s still very early in earnings season with just under 10% of the names having reported so far but the trend has been for a large number beating earnings expectations (39 out of 46) but only half (23 out of 46) beating sales expectations. Separate from the earnings reports, news (Bloomberg) broke late in the session that Qualcomm and Apple had settled all of their worldwide litigation, with Apple agreeing to pay a one-time fee as well as royalties for the next six years. Qualcomm said they expected a $2 per share boost to earnings, and its shares led gains for the NASDAQ, advancing +23.21%. Apple shares closed flat.

There was also a little bit of macro news to feed off, specifically a couple of ECB stories. The first was a headline on Reuters stating that “several” ECB policymakers had doubts about projections for a growth rebound in the second half of this year, however this appeared to be more about forecasting methodology rather than policy. About an hour later though a story on Bloomberg suggested that ECB officials lacked enthusiasm for sub-zero tiering. The full story suggested that ECB policy makers weren’t opposed to examining the impact however were yet to be convinced of the merits of a switch to tiering. European Banks lost about half a percent post the story hitting however within minutes had pared that move and ultimately ended the day with a steady +1.06% gain as bond yields climbed. The euro actually reacted more to the first story but also retraced the move to end the day -0.18%. 10y Bunds saw a mini rollercoaster after hitting 0.072% early on (ZEW helped – see below) before hitting an intraday low of 0.038% an hour later around the ECB headlines before ending 0.065%, +1.0bps higher on the day. Tomorrow’s PMIs are the next major landmark for bunds.

Also on the macro front, our global economic research teams from Europe, the US, Japan, and China pooled their expertise and published a report yesterday examining the policy space available to combat the next recession. Their report looks at the monetary and fiscal options in the four major economic zones. The US and China have the most scope to use monetary policy, while all countries have the potential to employ fiscal measures. The full report with details for each region is available here .

In other news, the data that was out yesterday played second fiddle to earnings and the ECB stories. Nevertheless for completeness in the US industrial production disappointed a bit in March, coming in at -0.1% mom versus expectations for +0.2%. Manufacturing production also came in below market (0.0% mom vs. +0.1% expected), while it was noted that vehicle production dropped -2.5%. A drop in capacity utilisation also followed to 78.8% while later on the April NAHB housing market index reading printed 1pt higher at 63, as expected.

Prior to this, in Germany the ZEW survey of expectations for April rose more than expected to +3.1 (vs. +0.5 expected) from -3.6 in the month prior. A reminder that the March reading saw an improvement of 9.8pts and in fact we’ve now seen this reading rise for six consecutive months and turn positive for the first time in over a year. There’s a bit of debate as to how useful this is as a macro forecasting tool however with the PMIs a much bigger focus unsurprisingly. Meanwhile, here in the UK wage growth stayed put at +3.4% 3m/yoy and the unemployment also held steady at 3.9%. Both signalling continued strength in the labour market.

To the day ahead now, which this morning includes more data out of the UK where the March CPI/RPI/PPI data docket is due. Not long after that we’ll get the final March CPI revisions along with the February trade balance for the Euro area, while this afternoon in the US we’ve also got the February trade balance, as well as February wholesale inventories and trade sales data. The Fed’s Beige book is also due tonight while scheduled speakers include the BoE’s Carney, ECB’s de Galhau and Lautenschlaeger, and the Fed’s Harker, Bullard and Logan. Germany’s Economy Minister Altmaier will also present Germany’s latest economic forecasts, while the earnings highlights include PepsiCo and Morgan Stanley.

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.52 POINTS OR 0.29% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 5.19 POINTS OR 0.02%  /The Nikkei closed UP 56.31 POINTS OR 0.25%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .35%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.6892 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 64.41 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.15 for Brent. Stocks inEurope OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.6892 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6861 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/

END

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

Japan/China/HUAWEI

After cutting off ZTE equipment last year, Japan may stop the use of Huawei 5 G technology in Japan and that is upsetting the Chinese to no end

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Confronts Japan Over Huawei 5G Ban During High Level Talks

According to a new exclusive in Nikkei Asian Review Huawei Technologies’ planned 5G roll out is a source of tension between China and Japan. Amid a general backdrop of otherwise improving relations, Japan late last year banned integration of the fifth-generation wireless technology over telecommunications security concerns, in a move that mirrored US action.

But on Sunday during high level economic talks in Beijing, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi urged Japan not to single out Huawei: “Why is the Japanese government excluding Huawei?” he said.The Nikkei report painted a picture of a long and contentious meeting in which “sparks were flying” over Tokyo’s intent to wall itself off from Huawei 5G business.

Nikkei cites that Huawei was invoked repeatedly by Chinese representatives at the meeting, which ran nearly four hours. “The Chinese side was interested mainly in Huawei issues,” a source cited in the report said.

In the meeting Japan’s foreign minister Taro Kono claimed that Tokyo “does not have any specific Chinese company in mind” with regard to the ban.

However, the Chinese side was reportedly unconvinced  this after ZTE equipment was also banned by the Japanese policy, outlined last December, ostensibly to avoid hacks and intelligence leaks.

 

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, right, and Japanese counterpart Taro Kono in Beijing on April 15, via Getty Images/Nikkei

Nikkei summarized the extent of Japan’s ban on Huawei’s 5G in the following:

Tokyo’s directive followed in December, banning government purchases of communications circuits, devices, servers and six other types of equipment should they pose a security risk.

Japan also aims to protect telecommunications equipment in 14 areas of infrastructure, including finance and air travel, against cyberattacks and other threats.

Huawei Technologies is touting its 5G “revolution” at the same time many western countries are shining a spotlight on Chinese espionage and stealing of trade secrets.

 

In 2017 Huawei launched its new smartphone product in Japan, its “NOVA” phone. Image source: Nikkei

The fear is that the cutting edge network technology will act as a backdoor for cyber spying by Beijing.

Meanwhile Huawei representatives have recently touted that the company has signed 40 commercial 5G network contracts and shipped 100,000 base stations globally, to facilitate its super-fast networks.

Australia and New Zealand have also alongside the US and Japan banned the technology from being sold in their territory. And other so-called “Five Eyes” intelligence sharing countries the UK and Canada are reportedly strongly considering a blanket ban.

end

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

 

China/

Although the huge stimulus in March had a strong effect on the numbers today, the internal consumption is of great concern to China. They point to three areas to show China’s continual problems:

the collapse in land sales, weak imports, and the unexpected decline in electricity consumption.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Three Reasons To Question China’s Blockbuster Economic Data

On the surface, China’s March data was surprisingly strong, largely as a result of strong policy easing and in light of China’s massive 40% surge in Total Social Financing, even adjusting for the Chinese New Year factor, the data indicated a recovery in economic momentum, if only for the time being.

As DB’s Jim Reid recapped this morning, starting with China’s Q1 GDP, the print came in one tenth above expectations at 6.4% yoy while all of the March activity indicators surprised on the upside with industrial production surging at +8.5% yoy (vs. +5.9% yoy expected) – the highest since July 2014. Retail sales printed at +8.7% yoy (vs. +8.4% yoy expected), YTD fixed assets ex rural came in line with consensus at +6.3% yoy and the jobless rate fell one tenth to 5.2%.

 

Among the other positive highlights, export momentum stabilized, consumption looked to be bottoming out and investment remained supported by the surprisingly resilient housing market. The outlook also seems bit more secure, as credit growth embarked on an upward trend.

That said, as SocGen’s Wei Yao pointed out this morning, the expenditure breakdown was not as positive. According to the NBS, net exports were the only improving segment, while both consumption and investment (including inventories) weakened notably in 1Q. Furthermore, the pick-up in net exports had more to do with weak imports than better exports. Consistently, overall fixed asset investment (FAI) growth moderated from 7.2% in 4Q to 6.3% in 1Q, although in real terms. By sector, infrastructure investment growth slowed from 6.0% to 4.2%, and manufacturing investment growth continued to moderate, from 11.5% to 4.6%. However, property investment picked up again from 8.4% to 11.8%.

 

However, three pieces of data have prompted questions about the consistency and veracity of the latest uptick in Chinese data: the collapse in land sales, weak imports, and the unexpected decline in electricity consumption.

First, overall housing activities did stage a come-back in March as property sales recovered from -4% in the first two months of 2019 to 2%, lifting the quarterly growth from -2% in 4Q to 0.9% in 1Q. Yet while growth in new starts rebounded quite sharply in March to 18% from 6%, this was not enough to stop the quarterly deceleration from 19% in 4Q to 12%. But the big question is regarding the outlook.  On the positive front, housing policy seems to be easing more notably from less stringent credit conditions for developers to relaxation in the 2nd-tier cities’ Hukou policy. However, ominously, land sales revenue growth collapsed to -33% in 1Q from 11.8% in 4Q18. This, as SocGen notes, “clearly does not augur well for property investment in the coming quarters.”

 

Second, whereas the all important net trade metrics appear to have stabilizied, import growth slid further, from -0.3% in February  to -1.8%, tanking the quarterly growth rate from 9% in 4Q to 0% in 1Q, or 5% to -4% in USD terms.  By destination, the deceleration in quarterly nominal growth was broad-based, mainly driven by commodity-exporting countries (Russia and Brazil), followed by the US and Korea. By product, import volume growth of major goods such as crude oil and semiconductors all moderated in 1Q. Metal import volumes also remained sluggish, with iron ore down from 1% in 4Q to -4%, copper down from 5% to -4% and steel down from -3% to 16%.

 

Last, but not least, was the latest energy consumption data, which while not highlighted in yesterday’s report, was certainly a concern because in a quarter in which industrial production reportedly soared higher, we also saw the first contraction in total energy consumption, which shrank by 1%. That this took place when China’s economy allegedly grew by 6.4% certainly puts the veracity of China’s data under the microscope yet again.

 

So whether China’s data was real or not, and there is enough historical precedent to lean toward the latter, the question is what this means for Beijing’s future policy. Here, as SocGen notes, “together with a stronger fiscal impulse and more positive economic data – whether they last or not, it is only logical for the PBoC to pause headline easing for now.” Additionally, the sharp upward trend in credit growth also does suggests that the economy may not need as much liquidity easing in the future, which in turn will likely cause the rebound in China’s credit impulse to fizzle in the coming months.

Echoing this take, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid wrote that “the downside to the numbers will be a more hawkish PBOC” and indeed, on Wednesday the PBOC injected much less liquidity into the market than was expected. In short: while China has clearly benefited from the trillions in new credit injected into the system, the question is how long will this impulse last, how sustainable is the resultant reflationary ripple, and what happens when the “sugar high” from China’s stimulus once again fizzles, especially if a US-China trade deal is still to be finalized.

end

Obviously last month’s stimulus was not enough:  China is now preparing a new stimulus to subsidize car and appliance purchases

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Prepares New Stimulus: Will Subsidize Car, Appliance Purchases

Earlier today we presented three reasons to doubt the veracity of China’s unabashedly strong Q1 economic data: the collapse in land sales, weak imports, and the unexpected decline in electricity consumption. We can now add one more: according to Bloomberg, China is now preparing to take even more stimulus steps to boost growth.

According to the report, Chinese officials are drafting measures to bolster sales of objects which have seen a surprising decline in consumer demand, namely cars and electronics. Notably, the report coincided with the latest GDP data showing a stronger than expected 6.4% expansion in the first quarter. Yet that appears to be insufficient for Beijing – which remains stuck in a protracted trade war with the US – and Chinese leaders are “stepping up attempts to bolster consumption and mitigate the threats posed by trade tensions with the U.S.”

As Bloomberg reports, “the proposals include subsidies for new-energy vehicles, smartphones and home appliances, and are at a consultation stage with other government branches, with no guarantee that they’ll be approved.”

Among the other components of the proposal, via Bloomberg:

  • An increase in the number of automobile licenses
  • A waiver on car-ownership quotas for families who don’t own vehicles
  • Subsidies for people who exchange vehicles that are as many as 10 years old for electric, hybrid or fuel-cell vehicles
  • No limits or traffic controls for new-energy vehicles
  • Encouraging banks to increase auto loans in tier-3 cities or below
  • Considering deducting auto purchases from personal income tax
  • Subsidies of up to 13 percent for a home appliance purchase at a maximum of 800 yuan ($120) per purchase
  • Exemption of value-added taxes for used-car transactions until the end of 2020

The target of the latest stimulus is clear: to boost flagging auto sales. As we reported last week, dropped 12% to 1.78 million units, according to the China Passenger Car Association. This is after an 18.5% drop in February and a 4% drop in January, and follow the worst year for Chinese auto sales in decades.

As Bloomberg adds, it’s notoriously difficult to own a car in major Chinese cities because of quotas to tackle traffic congestion and air pollution. In Beijing, the annual new vehicle quota dropped to 100,000 in 2018, and each licensed gasoline-fueled car has to be idle one day a week. “That’s prompted the government to provide incentives for motorists to drive new-energy vehicles — including pure-battery electrics, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell cars.”

The proposed stimulus would be the latest in a long series of attempts by the government to stimulate flagging growth: most recently China unveiled its most ambitious tax reduction in years, slashing the VAT, while a record credit injection has clearly had a favorable impact on industrial production, if not China’s all important real estate.

Needless to say, for a world desperate in need of its old, familiar, credit-fueled growth dynamo, China’s stabilization and the prospect of even more stimulus will come a relief. It’s also a sharp reversal from as recently as January when key readings were pointing to a pronounced downturn, a factor U.S. officials have touted as leverage in their push for a trade agreement. It is also a question as to whether the Fed will now be forced to once again reverse its tightening “pause” and resume rate hikes into the second half of 2019.

“President Trump and other U.S. officials spent much of the last year saying that China’s slowdown was making Beijing desperate for a deal,” said Michael Hirson, Practice Head, China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group and a former U.S. Treasury Department official. “Now that China’s growth is recovering, Trump and team will be getting more questions from pundits and the media about whether his leverage is slipping away.”

Justifying China’s ongoing desire to overstimulate the economy, Bloomberg economist Chang Shu and Qian Wan wrote that “we expect the economy to continue to stabilize in the second quarter, but believe continued policy support is warranted. Government-led infrastructure spending has kick started the recovery. What’s needed still — a turnaround in the private sector to drive self-sustaining growth.”

On the other hand, with China now on full tilt when it comes to stimulating the economy, the market will be especially attuned to the likelihood of China overheating in the near future, and as Bloomberg macro commentator Richard Breslow writes this morning, “we’ll get a good sense of whether rates can carry on from here by how they react to the latest, and not officially confirmed, report that the Chinese government is preparing new stimulus measures. It really matters in trying to understand the trading mindset.”

As for the overarching question of what this incremental stimulus means just as Beijing has, reportedly, stabilize the economy, Breslow also puts it bet: “Is additional stimulus a sign that things are about to get a lot better? Or a sign of renewed concern?”

Today’s stock market reaction should provide the answer.

end

China’s bond vigilantes are watching closely as data suggests a huge spike in their PMI due to the massive stimulus. However bond yields are also rising.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

China’s Bond Vigilantes Loom As Economic Data Stabilizes

All hope-filled eyes are straining at tonight’s data deluge from China for signs that confirm the PMI spike (and exports rebound) that fueled the latest leg higher in global stocks and bond yields.

Remember, the official narrative is that after a rocky start to the year, the roll out of targeted stimulus has boosted investment, buoyed consumption and helped the manufacturing sector.

Or put another way, thanks to unprecedented injections of credit and endless fiscal and monetary largesse, Chinese stocks have tracked aggressively higher, following China’s world-leading credit impulse back from the abyss…

And thanks to that resurgence of China’s credit impulse (in the face of a Fed that has talked a lot but done nothing), the divergence between US and Chinese macro data performance is at an extreme…

And yet – amid all this exuberant indication – China GDP growth is expected to slow in Q1

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The British, Australian, Ecuadorian and US Governments have made an ad about Julian Assange’s arrest and it’s surprisingly honest and informative!

have fun with this:

end

UK

Tory support is faltering and Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party is picking up steam.

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Tory Support Splinters, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party Nearly Even In Polls

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Theresa May, the worst negotiator in history, splintered the Tories so badly the Brexit Party is nearly even in polls.

Farage Forms New Party

The Guardian reports Tories Hit by New Defections and Slump in Opinion Polls as Party Divide Widens.

The bitter fallout from Brexit is threatening to break the Tory party apart, as a Europhile former cabinet minister Stephen Dorrell on Sunday announces he is defecting to the independent MPs’ group Change UK, and a new opinion poll shows Conservative support plummeting to a five-year low as anti-EU parties surge.

The latest defections come as a new Opinium poll for the Observer shows a dramatic fall in Tory support in the past two weeks and a surge for anti-EU parties. The Conservatives have fallen by six percentage points to 29% compared to a fortnight ago. It is their worst position since December 2014. Labour is up one point on 36% while Ukip is up two points on 11%.

​Even more alarmingly for the Tories, their prospects for the European elections appear dire. Only 17% of those certain to vote said they would choose the Conservatives in the European poll, while 29% would back Labour, and 25% either Ukip (13%) or Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party (12%).

YouGov Poll

A more recent YouGov Poll looks even worse for the Tories

Britain Elects@britainelects

European Parliament voting intention:

LAB: 24% (-1)
CON: 16% (-8)
BREX: 15% (+15)
UKIP: 14% (-13)
GRN: 8% (-)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
CHUK: 7% (+7)
SNP & PC: 6%

via @YouGov, 10 – 11 Apr
Chgs. w/ 2014 result, GB-wide

Tabs: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1g0abg184t/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_EU_w.pdf 

In the YouGov poll, UKIP and BREX total 29%.

Polls Volatile

Eurointellingence has these thoughts on the polls.

We have noted before that classic opinion polls at a time like this are next to useless. But we found an interesting constituency-level poll, by Electoral Calculus, showing for the first time that Labour would get enough constituency MPs to form a minority government with the support of the SNP. This is a shift from previous such exercises, which predicted a continuation of the status quo with the Tories still in command.

This latest poll, too, is subject to our observation of massively intruding volatility. It says that some of the Tory’s most prominent MPs would be at risk, including Amber Rudd and Iain Duncan-Smith. And we agree with the bottom-line analysis of John Curtice, the pollster, who said the abrupt fall in support for Tories is due entirely to their failure to have delivered Brexit on time.

The Tories are facing two electoral tests in May – local elections on May 2 and European elections on May 23. Early polls are show Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party shooting up, taking votes away from the Tories. If European elections were held, we would expect the Brexit party to come ahead of the Tories. Labour is rock-solid in the polls, but Labour unity is at risk as the pro-referendum supporters want Jeremy Corbyn to put the second referendum on the party’s manifesto.

Tory Labour Talks

The Tory/Labour talks on a compromise have stalled, but are set to continue next week with three working groups: on security, on environmental protection, and on workers’ rights. A separate meeting is scheduled between Philip Hammond and John McDonnell, the chancellor and shadow chancellor. The big outstanding issue is the customs union. Theresa May has not yet moved on this one. We noted David Liddington, the effective deputy prime minister, saying that the minimum outcome of the talks would be an agreed and binding decision-making procedure to flush out all options but one in a series of parliamentary votes.

May’s task is to get at least half of her party on board for a compromise. What makes a deal attractive to the Tories is that May would resign soon afterwards, giving enough time for the Tory conference in October to select a successor before possible elections in early 2020.

This relative alignment of interests is why we would not rule out a deal – either on an agreed joint future relationship, or at least on a method to deliver an outcome.

Customs Union

A customs union, depending on how it is structured, would likely be worse than remaining. The UK would have to abide by all the EU rules and regulations without having any say.

Effectively, it will not be delivering Brexit.

Perhaps May’s deal has a resurrection.

end

 

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

IRAN passes a vote declares the USA Central Command (CENTCOM) A “TERROR ORGANIZATION” meaning uSA troops in the Middle East will be treated as terrorists.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran’s Parliament Passes Vote Declaring US Central Command A “Terror Organization”

Following Monday’s formal US listing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, or FTO, Iran was quick to hit back as previously promised.

Iranian lawmakers voted Tuesday to in turn list US Central Command, or CENTCOM, as a terrorist organization, which means that any support given CENTCOM will be treated as an act of terrorism. It essentially means all American troops in the Middle East will be treated as terrorists, according to the newly passed law.

 

Iran parliament, via Iran Daily/ICANA

“The Islamic Republic of Iran’s government and Armed Forces are required to adopt preventive actions and preemptive defensive measures whenever necessary, to deter any hostile US forces’ use of any possibilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran’s interests,” the bill states, according to Fars news.

It passed with a near unanimous vote in parliament, taking effect immediately, and includes 13-article legislation which mandates the armed forces to gather intelligence about CENTCOM activities. Such material could be used to prosecute either individuals or foreigners giving any level of assistance to the US military in the Middle East.

CENTCOM covers the Middle East and Central Asia, and coordinates command of all US armed forces in places like Afghanistan and Iraq — both of which hold major potential for clashing up against Iranian forces or proxies, especially true of Iraq.

Iran’s Defense Minister Amir Hatami said this week that Washington’s moving forward with the FTO designation of the IRGC is proof that sanctions on Tehran were failing.

During remarks made early last week when President Trump first unveiled his intent to designation the IRGC, he said, “This designation will be the first time that the United States has ever named a part of another government as an FTO,” and added, “This action sends a clear message to Tehran that its support for terrorism has serious consequences. We will continue to increase financial pressure and raise the costs on the Iranian regime for its support of terrorist activity until it abandons its malign and outlaw behavior.”

The designation took effect on Monday and brings the United States a big step closer to initiating war with Iran. The two sides have already long been engaged in a quiet proxy war of sorts in Iraq, which includes vying for political influence over Baghdad and the question of Shia paramilitary units allowed to operate by the Iraqi government.

Former Marine intelligence officer and UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter concluded of this week’s events, “Given the fact Washington is currently engaged in a global ‘war’ on terrorism, this designation—which places the IRGC on the same footing as ISIS and al-Qaeda—means that the U.S. is in effect at war with Iran.”

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

The Bureau of Economic Policy in the Netherlands reveal that trade volume dropped a considerable 1.8% from last November until January.  No doubt that this was the reason for China’s huge stimulus move in March

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

World Trade Suffers Biggest Collapse Since Financial Crisis

The recent collapse in world trade volume is the worst since the financial crisis and as dangerous as during the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, according to The Telegraph.

Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis revealed that world trade volume dropped 1.8% in the three months to January compared to the preceding three months as a synchronized global downturn gained momentum.

An industrial slump has been triggered by a perfect storm of factors, including China’s slowdown, the car industry downturn, Brexit paralysis and Donald Trump’s attempt to upend the international trade system with tariffs on European and Chinese goods,” explained The Telegraph.

A further escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China could spark a world trade recession. Already, Washington has imposed steep tariffs on Chinese imports worth $250bn in a tit-for-tat battle with industrial centers in Asia and Germany experiencing sharp drops in trade in recent months.

The Telegraph describes the sudden loss in trade momentum is equivalent to the months after the dot com bubble imploded in 2001 when trade volumes sank as much as 2.2%. Today’s current move is the biggest fall since the financial crisis of 2007–2008 when global trade plummeted, diving as much as 12.7%.

The International Monetary Fund warned last week that this is a “delicate moment” for the global economy as many countries are in the midst of a severe slowdown.

The global economy has “lost further momentum” in the last six months, said IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde.

Lagarde pinned trade volume deterioration on decelerating global growth and “the impact of increased trade tensions on spending”  on producer goods.

The global downturn in trade is widespread geographically. The synchronized slowdown is expected to stabilize beyond 2020; however, in the meantime, it’s likely the world could be headed for a trade recession, if not already in one.

 

 
Argentine policymakers are now starting to panic as inflation is soaring in their country at 54%.  The Argentine peso collapses to 44 to the dollar
(courtesy zerohedge)

Argentine Policymakers “Start To Panic” As Inflation Soars

The Argentine Peso has rallied the last few days – after crashing to a new record low – in what some consider a vote of confidence in central bank and government promises to crackdown on inflation.

However, don’t believe the hype – as Argentine credit markets (far less easy to manipulate than FX) are screaming new lows ahead for the peso…

Prices climbed 4.7 percent in March from the month before, the fastest pace since October and exceeding all eight forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. Annual inflation accelerated to 54.7 percent from 51.3 percent, putting President Mauricio Macri’s re-election bid further at risk.

In response to this surge in inflation, Argentina today said it will freeze prices on 60 food products until October. This follows yesterday’s central bank announcement that it would fix the exchange-rate band for the rest of the year instead of allowing it to depreciate. To prop up the peso, the government’s already selling $60 million a day of the cash it got from the IMF.

In fact, Capital Economics’ Edward Glossop warns that Argentine policymakers are ‘starting to panic’ and ‘resorting to old habits to tame inflation’ ahead of October’s presidential election:

Central bank’s decision to keep the currency band unchanged coupled with an expected announcement of some price controls today “suggest that policymakers are panicking.”

As Bloomberg reports, Glossop additionally says the policy measures also raise the risk that the peso does not fall far enough to offset the erosion of competitiveness resulting from high inflation and wage growth. To remain competitive, the peso’s nominal exchange would need to weaken right to the upper bound and if the peso appreciates to the lower bound, the real exchange rate would appreciate by 30% by the end of the year:

“That in turn would raise the risk of a large adjustment in the peso, perhaps triggered by the election of a populist government in October”

The IMF – which handed over a record $56 billion last year to bailout Macri – is hopeful…

“Breaking inflation inertia remains a difficult challenge for the Argentine authorities,” IMF chief spokesperson Gerry Rice said in a statement. “Their current monetary policy framework is appropriately designed to tackle this challenge.”

But their hope is definitely not consensus:

“With observed and expected inflation both rising, the BCRA is left in an uncomfortable situation. In our view, there are not many options left for the monetary authority, which has already announced even stricter targets for monetary base last month.”

-Adriana Dupita, Bloomberg economist

Argentine March inflation data show price pressures remain highly generalized and is “very negative and worrisome”

– Alberto Ramos at Goldman Sachs.

But Bloomberg’s Sebastian Boyd sums up the farce best: the measures the government and bank are taking are short-sighted and damaging. Price controls and FX manipulation are part of what got Argentina into this mess and are aimed at boosting president Mauricio Macri’s re-election chances — at the expense of economic orthodoxy. It’s a sign of weakness and fear.

7  OIL ISSUES

 

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

 

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.13O9 UP .0025 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.00  down .0080 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3054   UP   0.0009  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3326 DOWN .00024 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 25 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1309 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 9.52 POINTS OR 0.29%.

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 5.19 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .35%// EUROPEAN BOURSES //GREEN EXCEPT LONDON 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 56.31 POINTS OR 0.25%  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN EXCEPT LONDON 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 5.19  POINTS OR 0.072%

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.52 POINTS OR 0.29%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .35%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 56.31 POINTS OR 0.25% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1276.00

silver:$15.00

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.61% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.01 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96.93 DOWN 11 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.21%  UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  up 1   BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.11% UP 2   IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.61 UP 1    POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 150 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES +.08%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.53% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1295 UP     .0011 or 11 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.99 DOWN 0.002 OR YEN UP 2 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3035 DOWN .0009 POUND DOWN 9  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar  UP  18 basis points to 1.3341

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.6881    0N SHORE  (UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.6843  (YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7438..

 

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 0 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.59 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2,99 UP 0 in basis points on the day /

 

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.99 DOWN 6  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 0.40  0.02%

German Dax : UP 51.75 POINTS OR 0.43%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 34.42 POINTS OR  0.62%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 52.50 POINTS OR  0.55%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 81.95 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 64.17 1:00 pm

Brent Oil: 71.87 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    63.94  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.13 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 13 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO +.08 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  63.77

 

 

BRENT :  71.60

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.59…   STILL DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.99..STILL DEADLY

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1298 ( UP 14   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.09 UP .092 (YEN DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.01 DOWN 3 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3041 DOWN 3 POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7394

 

the Russian rouble 63.85   UP .22 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 22 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3342 UP 17 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.6881  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.6876 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,+0.08%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 3.12POINTS OR 0.01%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 4.15 POINTS OR 0.05%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.44 CLOSED UP .26

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.600%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.588

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Nasdaq 100 Hits Record High As Semis Soar; Healthcare & Small Caps Hammered

Positive (well managed) data from China overnight was met with a yawn by equity investors…

But the Chinese money markets are starting to get spooked…

 

European markets rallied, led by DAX again…

 

With the US economic data dumping near two-year lows…

Bonds & Commodities seem in agreement on the state of play…

But stocks disagree…

And Nasdaq 100 hits a new record high as earnings tumble…

Mission Accomplished indeed…

 

While Trannies were best, Small Caps stumbled today as The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq traded in an extremely narrow range…

 

QCOM continued to explode higher – breaking the 2014 highs before sliding back…

 

Which lifted Semis to a new record high…

 

Healthcare stocks were hammered for the second day – the biggest 2-day drop since mid-December’s crash began – erasing the YTD gains…

 

FANG Stocks were weaker today

 

VIX Flash-crashed before the cash market open and pushed above 13.00 intraday…

 

Treasury yields were practically unchanged on the day, despite some intraday swings…

 

30Y Yields briefly pushed above 3.00% but could not hold it…

 

97.00 remains the magic number for DXY Dollar Index…

Cryptos were mixed today with Bitcoin and Ether higher but Bitcoin Cash sliding…

 

WTI rolled over today but copper gained as PMs limped lower…

 

Despite a crude draw and production cut, WTI fell back below $64…

 

Gold fell back to its lowest since Xmas Eve…

 

Finally, don’t forget, that which can’t last forever, won’t!

Because it’s not different this time…

“You have meddled with the primary forces of nature, Mr Beale, and I won’t have it! Is that clear?”

end

MARKET TRADING/ EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING

Nasdaq 100 Surges To All-Time Record High, But…

“Mission Accomplished”

But…While the Nasdaq 100 is up 21.8% YTD, earnings expectations are down 0.8% YTD.

end

 

ii)Market data/

The deficit shrinks as exports to China surge.  Imports fell a bit.  However the big gain in trade was due to the exports of aircrafts and that will shrink badly due to the grounding of the Boeing’s troubled planes.

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Trade Deficit Shrinks As Exports To China Surge

President Trump will be pleased with this set of numbers as the apparent front-running of trade tariffs has now worn off and the US trade balance (deficit) shrinks to its smallest deficit since June 2018.

The U.S. trade deficit’s unexpected narrowing was driven largely by a surge in civilian aircraft exports, which may come under pressure after the grounding of Boeing Co.’s 737 Max planes.

  • Imports rose 0.2% in Feb. to $259.07b from $258.49b in Jan.
  • Exports rose 1.1% in Feb. to $209.69b from $207.36b in Jan.

The February decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $1.2  billion to $72.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.5 billion to $22.6 billion. 

The increase in exports of services mostly reflected increases in transport ($0.2 billion) and in other business services ($0.1 billion), which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services.

The increase in exports of goods mostly reflected increases in capital goods ($2.1 billion) and in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.6 billion). A decrease in industrial supplies and materials ($0.4 billion) partly offset the increases.

The February figures show surpluses, with South and Central America ($3.7), Hong  Kong ($2.8), United Kingdom ($0.9), Brazil ($0.6), Singapore ($0.4), Canada ($0.4), and OPEC ($0.3). Deficits  were recorded with China ($30.1), European Union ($12.4), Mexico ($7.7), Japan  ($6.7), Germany ($5.5), Italy ($2.8), South Korea ($2.4), India ($2.2), France ($2.2), Taiwan ($1.7), and Saudi  Arabia ($0.3).

The deficit with China decreased dramatically with imports from China fell 3.6 percent in February from the prior month while exports to the nation rose 21.6 percent.

Trump winning? Or too soon?

 

 end
Despite the good numbers today:  USA soybean export plunge
(zerohedge)

U.S. Soybean Exports Plunge, No Recovery In Sight, Farmers Are Concerned About Tariff Man

Despite earlier good news on the US-China trade deficit, U.S. soybean exports have plunged to their lowest levels since the early days of the U.S.-China trade war in what is an alarming sign for farmers pleading with the Trump administration to resolve all trade disputes.

Current data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) revealed that the total U.S. soybean exports reached 460,700 metric tons last week, down from 888,700 tons in the previous week and just above 446,500 tons in the same week a year ago. Of the soybean shipments last week, only 130,200 tons were loaded on vessels for China.

The implementation of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods last summer spurred Beijing to abandon U.S. farmers for South American growers, cultivating links with Argentina and Brazil.

American farmers are expected to plant less soybean this year, down 5% to 84.6 million acres according to the USDA, and Chinese feed demand is likely to collapse amid the outbreak of African Swine Fever across several provinces.

This means that “even if an agreement was reached between China and the USA, a return to the quantities of soybeans traded before the outbreak of the dispute would be highly unlikely,” said Germany’s Commerzbank.

The continuing trade dispute has caused bilateral trade between both countries to almost collapse. Total U.S. exports of soybeans globally fell 28% y/y in March compared with the same 12-month period in 2017-2018, at 30 million mt, down from 41.6 million mt.

American growers are troubled by indications that the administration would accept Chinese purchase target pledges for soybean without a commitment to lift retaliatory tariffs, said industry representatives, some of whom spoke only on condition of anonymity to Bloomberg.

“This is of great concern to producers out here facing another year of tariffs,” said Mark Powers, president of the Northwest Horticultural Council, which represents cherry, pear and apple growers in the Pacific Northwest. “We’re disappointed. Clearly the priority lies elsewhere.”

Farmers are disturbed by Trump’s interest in tariffs that are destroying free markets while his administration gets to pick industry winners and losers. This is more of a command and control market – some farmers suggested.

Despite being close to a deal for five months, soybean exports continue to plunge as farmers lose confidence in the administration to “Make American Great Again.”

What’s next? Well, farm bankruptcy filings have exploded across 19 states, particularly in the upper Midwest — some of these farmers are sitting on record stockpiles of soybeans – as demand for the beans disappears.

END

Manufacturing weakness continues as it is near its two year nadir

(courtesy zerohedge)

Manufacturing Weakness Continues: US Economic Data Nears Two-Year Lows

Despite all the talk of a great US economy ready for rebirth now that The Fed has taken its foot off the neck of expansion, US macro-economic data has collapsed (absolutely and relative to expectations) in recent weeks to its lowest since July 2017 – taking on the ugly title of ‘worst economic data in the world’


And things are getting worse. As Knowledge Leaders Capital blog’s Steven Vanelli notes, so far this week, we’ve received a few data points that reinforce the manufacturing slowdown taking place in the US.

On Monday, we got the Empire State Survey, a survey of manufacturing in New York.

Importantly, this is one of the few “soft” data points we have for April, so its message is important. It turned up slightly from last month, showing some stabilization and beating estimates, but it is still well down from 2018 levels.

Underneath the surface, the data was a bit less encouraging. In the 6-month outlook, expectations for general business conditions and new orders plunged.

Industrial production undershot monthly estimates, falling .10% when it was expected to rise .2%. This brought the 1-year percent change down to 2.8% from a rate about twice that of last September.

END

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

IBM tumbles after reporting its worst revenue in 17 years.

(courtesy zerohedge)

IBM Tumbles After Reporting Worst Revenue In 17 Years As Cloud Hits Air Pocket

IBM is back to its revenue declining, non-GAAP-EPS-beating-through-low-tax-gimmick ways. Or rather, it never left.

With Wall Street expecting IBM to report (non-GAAP) EPS of $2.22 in Q1, the company “beat” by the tiniest of margins, reporting non-GAAP, adjusted EPS of $2.25, a dramatic 8% drop from last year.

So far so good, but as usual, there was a gaping difference between GAAP and non-GAAP, and in this case it was material, with the company reporting a paltry $1.78 in GAAP EPS, roughly a quarter below the Non-GAAP number. Unfortunately for IBM, unlike prior quarter when at least non-GAAP pre-tax and net income managed to post modest increases thanks to tax rate gimmicks and stock buybacks even as their GAAP equivalents dropped, this quarter, non-GAAP net Income declined by 12% Y/Y while GAAP Net Income dropped by 5%.

 

How did IBM bridge the traditionally lower GAAP EPS number to the higher non-GAAP? “Simple” – here is the full breakdown.

 

Of course, this brings us to our favorite topic: namely that for yet another quarter, non-GAAP EPS only beat because the company reverted back to its tax gimmick ways, as IBM’s effective non-GAAP EPS once again managed to tumble to only 10%, the lowest since 2017, and far below what Wall Street expected. Had IBM used an even slightly realistic effective tax rate, it would have instantly missed Wall Street estimates.

 

 

Meanwhile, far more troubling than the company’s bottom-line gimmicks, IBM reported Q1 revenue of just $18.2 billion, down 4.7% Y/Y and missing the $18.5BN estimate. Just as bad, quarterly revenue was the lowest in 17 years: indeed one has to go back to Q1 2002 for a worse top-line quarter.

 

This also means that not long after IBM reported three consecutive quarters of top-line growth – which followed 22 consecutive quarters of declines – IBM’s Q1 revenue once again dropped after a similar decline in Q3, and Q4, sliding by 4.7% Y/Y and reminding investors that for all its non-GAAP and tax fudges, IBM remains a melting ice cube.

 

But while in the past the market was willing to overlook IBM’s misses, this time it was far more concerned as the revenue drop was driven by a decline in the all important cloud-computing, artificial intelligence and cognitive software unit that the company is hanging its future on.

IBM reported a 2% drop, to $5.0 billion, in sales from cloud and cognitive software; and while cloud revenue alone grew 10% over the last 12 months, that was a slower pace than the previous quarter. Revenue across all of IBM’s business units either fell or was little changed.

Stepping away from the income statement and looking at the cash flow, IBM announced that it generated Q1 cash from operations of $2.3 billion (excluding Global Financing receivables). And as has been the case for the past several years, the company returned all of its cash, or $2.3 billion, to shareholders through $1.4 billion in dividends and $0.9 billion in stock buybacks. At the end of March 2019, IBM had $2.4 billion remaining in the current share repurchase authorization; for new readers, IBM has repurchased billions and billions of its stock in the past decade, which is the only reason non-GAAP EPS hasn’t imploded.

IBM ended the first quarter with $18.1 billion of cash on hand, up from $12.2 billion in Q4, however most of this was thanks to new debt issuance, with IBM reporting $50.0 billion in debt, up from $45.8 billion last quarter. Of course, both of these numbers will change drastically once the Red Hat deal is completed.

In short: after several strong quarters, IBM’s Q3, Q4 and Q1 results – when in addition to everything IBM decided to purchase Red Hat and massively overpaying at that – saw the return of all that investors had grown to loathe about big blue. And worst of all, for all its gimmicks, the stock is tumbling after hours as investors finally realized just how great of a melting ice cube this company is in danger of becoming unless it impresses the market with some new, and marketable, technology.

end

We now have more stores closing so far this year than all last year

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

It’s Only April, And U.S. Retailers Have Already Shuttered More Stores Than They Did All Of Last Year

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

If the U.S. economy is in good shape, why have retailers already shuttered more stores than they did in all of 2018?  Not only that, we are also on pace to absolutely shatter the all-time record for store closures in a single year by more than 50 percent.  Yes, Internet commerce is growing, but the Internet has been around for several decades now.  It isn’t as if this threat just suddenly materialized.  As Internet commerce continues to slowly expand, we would expect to see a steady drip of brick and mortar stores close, but instead what we are witnessing is an avalanche.  If the U.S. economy really was “booming”, this wouldn’t be happening.  But if the U.S. economy was heading into a recession, this is precisely what we would expect to see.

Last year, U.S. retailers closed 5,864 stores.

That was a rather depressing number, but here we are in April 2019 and we have already surpassed it.  The following comes from CNN

This year, US retailers have announced that 5,994 stores will close. That number already exceeds last year’s total of 5,864 closure announcements, according to a recent report from Coresight Research.

At this time last year, there was a lot of optimism for the retail industry.  Foot traffic at our shopping centers rose steadily throughout the early portion of the year before peaking in August.

But then something changed, and since that time there has been a clear downward trend

Foot traffic at some of the best shopping centers across the country peaked around August 2018 and has since started to fall, after rebounding for much of last year, according to a new report from data analytics firm Thasos, which uses more than 100 million mobile phones to track when consumers enter and leave certain trade areas.

Once again, you can’t blame this on Internet commerce.  Foot traffic was rising for quite a while, but now what we are seeing is perfectly consistent with an economic slowdown.

Sadly, this could be just the beginning.  In fact, one expert quoted by CNBC expects total store closures in the U.S. to hit 12,000 by the end of 2019…

“I expect store closures to accelerate in 2019, hitting some 12,000 by year end,” Deborah Weinswig, founder and CEO of Coresight, said.

If that happens, we will shatter the old yearly record by about 4,000.

We are in the early innings of America’s “retail apocalypse”, and it is going to get much, much worse.

Of course it isn’t just the retail industry that is hurting right now.  With each passing day, we continue to get more signs that the U.S. economy is sliding into a new recession.  For example, we just learned that during the first quarter of 2019 U.S. manufacturing was down 1.1 percent compared to a year ago…

Manufacturing fell 1.1 percent in the first three months of the year compared to the same period of 2018, the Fed reported.

The biggest reason for the decline in manufacturing is quite obvious.  Businesses are absolutely swamped with unsold inventory, and the inventory to sales ratio in the U.S. has been steadily rising for months.

Earlier today, a Bloomberg article commented on the bloated inventories that we are seeing all over the nation…

One overhang is the auto market, where the six-month average of dealer stocks of cars and trucks matches the highest since 2009 at 75 days. Manufacturers and sellers of furniture and clothing share the same problem, as do small businesses. The inventory swing is likely to exacerbate the U.S. slowdown, with the economy already facing headwinds from the waning impact of tax cuts, slowing global growth and continuing trade tensions.

As economic activity slows down, less stuff is being shipped around the nation by air, rail and truck.  We just got a new update from the Cass Freight Index, and it shows that freight shipment volume in the U.S. has now fallen for four months in a row

Freight shipment volume in the US across all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – in March fell 1% from last year, according to the Cass Freight Index. It was the fourth month in a row of year-over-year declines, and the first declines since the transportation recession of 2015 and 2016.

For my regular readers, these new numbers should be no surprise, because I have been tracking these trends for an extended period of time.

All of the numbers are telling us that economic conditions are getting worse, and all of the experts are telling us that we are way overdue for another recession.

Unfortunately, it isn’t likely to be “just another recession”.  As I have repeatedly stressed, all of our long-term economic and financial problems have gotten far worse since the last recession.  We have never seen bubbles like the bubbles that we are facing now, and the stage is set for the greatest meltdown in American history.

The only reason why we have even been able to get this far is by ruthlessly mortgaging the future.  We borrowed trillions upon trillions of dollars that we should not have borrowed, and the Federal Reserve relentlessly pumped “hot money” into overheated financial markets.

Those “emergency measures” were able to stabilize the U.S. economy for a while, but in the process they made our long-term problems much, much worse.

In the end, it isn’t just the retail industry that is heading for an “apocalypse”.  Our entire economy is built on a foundation of sand, and a giant storm is rapidly approaching our shores.

end

That escalated fast:  the beige book downgrades the USA economy as it is slowing down at a great pace

(courtesy zerohedge)

Beige Book Downgrades US Economy Outlook To “Slight-To-Modest”

One month after the Beige Book described the slowing US economy as an already downgraded “slight-to-moderate”, the Federal Reserve again took down its assessment for the US, and while a few Districts reported some strengthening, the outlook among contacts in reporting Districts is for “slight-to-modest” growth in the months ahead, suggesting that this time it is the top end of the range that has come down from its traditional “modest-to-moderate” baseline.

Looking at overall economic activity, reports on consumer spending were “mixed but suggested sluggish sales for both general retailers and auto dealers” although at least foreigners are enjoying the US as “reports on tourism were generally more upbeat.” The Fed addressed another sensitive issue, namely loan growth, noting that “reports on loan demand were mixed, but indicated steady growth”, refuting the assessment by the latest Senior Loan Officer Survey, which concluded that loan demand has continued to shrink.

Predictably, trade concerns remained an issue, and while reports on manufacturing activity were favorable, “contacts in many Districts noted trade-related uncertainty.” Looking at housing, “most Districts reported stronger home sales, although some Districts noted low demand for higher-priced homes.” In a troubling development, the Fed now acknowledges the weakness in US farms, stating that “agricultural conditions remained weak, with contacts expressing concerns over the impact of current and future rainfall and flooding.”

One place where the economy continued to hum is in the labor market, and according to the Beige Book, “employment continued to increase nationwide, with nine districts reporting modest or moderate growth” even as the other three reporting slight growth. Furthermore, a majority of districts cited shortages of skilled laborers, most commonly in manufacturing and construction, while wages for both skilled and unskilled positions generally grew at about the same pace as earlier this year.

Additionally, based on anecdotes from the New York Fed. “Two employment agency contacts noted a large and widening gap between salary demands and salary offers, noting that this has led some employers to miss out on good candidates.” Additionally, “manufacturers were said to be holding the line on wages, while service firms have become somewhat more flexible.”

Curiously, quantifying the shift in the economy, while respondents no longer appear as concerned about trade, with “Tariff” talk sharply reduced, mentions of “slowness” have also shrunk which is unexpected in light of the overall deterioration in the broader outlook.

In line with this observation, a Reuters diffusion index courtesy of Jeoff Hall, found that the root of the word “strong” appeared 54 times in today’s Beige Book, up from 37 in the March 6 version but down from 58 in the January 16 version. Incidence of “weak” was unchanged at 34 in both versions.

Below are some of the most notable Beige Book anecdotes from the various regional Feds, as picked by Bloomberg:

  • Boston: An automotive contact cited a labor shortage of certified mechanics, which with computer technology are now highly skilled and well-paying jobs requiring technical expertise, but not a four-year college degree
  • New York: Two employment agency contacts noted a large and widening gap between salary demands and salary offers, noting that this has led some employers to miss out on good candidates; Manufacturers, in particular, were said to be holding the line on wages, while service firms have become somewhat more flexible
  • Philadelphia: One contact noted that a late winter snowstorm had moved ski resorts above budget, while a high-end shore hotel had its best February ever
  • Cleveland: Contacts reported that lower-priced homes outsold more expensive homes
  • Richmond: A zoo reported raising prices amid confidence that business would remain strong
  • Atlanta: Some firms mentioned setting up satellite locations in larger, metropolitan cities or moving to more populated suburban areas to find workers
  • Chicago: Livestock prices, especially for hogs, moved up in response to China’s decision to include livestock purchases in the trade negotiations and because of a considerable decline in China’s hog herd due to disease
  • St. Louis: Contacts reported a dichotomy in the market: There is strong demand for lower-priced houses, while housing inventory comprises mostly higher-priced homes
  • Minneapolis: A survey of job openings found that statewide STEM openings rose by 15 percent in February over a year earlier
  • Kansas City: Recent severe flooding and blizzards throughout the district resulted in losses of cattle and stored crops as well as damage to roads, fields, and other infrastructure
  • Dallas: One energy sector contact noted that they were having to pay hot oil truck drivers $130,000 annually to retain them
  • San Francisco: A steel manufacturer in Oregon continued to note elevated capacity utilization relative to historical averages, due to lower competition from abroad

The bottom line: the Beige Book will further support the decision by the Fed to stay “patient” on future interest-rate hikes amid a healthy, but slight-to-modest economic expansion.

END

Barr, Rosenstein To Hold 9:30AM Press Conference As DOJ Releases Mueller Report

The Justice Department will hold a press conference at 9:30 a.m. Thursday to discuss the Mueller report.

According toBloomberg‘s Jennifer Jacobs, both Attorney General William Barr and Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein – who authorized and oversaw the majority of the investigation – will speak.

Jennifer Jacobs

@JenniferJJacobs

BREAKING: The Justice Department will do a news conference at 9:30a tomorrow on the Mueller report.

Trump says he might do one, too.

Jennifer Jacobs

@JenniferJJacobs

AG William Barr and Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein will speak at the press conference, @spettypi reports.

Here’s what to expect from tomorrow’s release of the redacted report, according to the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross.

***

The report, which clocks in at nearly 400 pages, will contain Mueller’s findings about Russian efforts to influence the 2016 election. It will also detail the investigation into whether members of the Trump campaign conspired with Russians, and whether President Trump himself attempted to obstruct the FBI’s probe by firing James Comey as FBI director.

Attorney General William Barr has already revealed that Mueller & Co. were unable to establish that Trump associates conspired with Russia. But the report will likely shed light on how the investigation unfolded, and what other information was uncovered about any Russian attempts to infiltrate the campaign. (RELATED: Mueller Finds No Collusion)

Here is a guide for the report’s release.

Where will it be released?

The Justice Department has said the report will be sent to Congress and made public. It will likely be posted online, and can also be found at DailyCaller.com.

What will be in the report?

A lot. The report is the product of a 22-month investigation that relied on 2,800 subpoenas, 500 witness interviews, 19 prosecutors, 50 FBI agents and a review of millions of pages of emails and financial documents.

Mueller indicted or obtained guilty pleas for 34 separate individuals and three Russian companies. Details of those investigations are likely to be included in the report.

What do we know about Mueller’s findings so far?

Attorney General William Barr released a summary of Mueller’s core conclusions on March 24.

“[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities,” Mueller’s report says, according to Barr.

Barr also revealed that Mueller “did not find that the Trump campaign, or anyone associated with it, conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in these efforts, despite multiple offers from Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump campaign.”

Barr said that Mueller was less definitive on the question of obstruction.

“While this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him,” the Mueller report states.

Barr said that after consulting with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and DOJ lawyers, he decided against pressing charges on the obstruction issue.

One rationale for that decision was that Mueller did not establish an underlying crime, conspiracy with Russia, to obstruct.

What information will be withheld?

Barr has said that the Justice Department will redact four broad categories of information.

Grand jury, or 6(e) material: It is illegal to release information provided to a grand jury without a judge’s authorization, and Barr has not asked any courts to release the information.

Much of the obstruction investigation did not involve grand jury testimony, however. White House lawyers, at Trump’s direction, instructed White House officials to cooperate with the special counsel, thereby avoiding grand jury appearances. That means that information from key officials, including former White House counsel Don McGahn, former White House strategist Steve Bannon, and former Trump chief of staff Reince Priebus, could be included in the report.

The White House has reportedly chosen not to exercise executive privilege to block the release of any of that information.

Counterintelligence information: Redactions will be made for any classified information, or information that involves counterintelligence investigations.

Information that involves ongoing investigations: The Mueller probe spawned numerous investigations that are now being handled by U.S. attorney offices in Virginia, New York and Washington, D.C. One example is Roger Stone, the longtime Trump confidant who was indicted by Mueller on Jan. 24. His case is being handled by the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Washington. Information that pertains to that case is likely to have some redactions.

Private and derogatory information: Redactions will be made for information that, if released, would “unduly infringe on the personal privacy and reputational interests of peripheral third parties.”

Will the full report ever be made public?

Probably, but it remains to be seen if that process will take months, or years.

Democrats have said that they will subpoena the full report to view grand jury information. According to one report, Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee are prepared to subpoena for the redactions as early as Friday.

Lawsuits have also already been filed by government watchdog groups and news outlets seeking the redacted information.

Will we hear from Mueller?

It’s possible.

Democratic California Rep. Adam Schiff, the Democratic chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, has said it is “inevitable” that Mueller will testify before Congress.

Republicans have also indicated they want to hear from Mueller. Georgia GOP Rep. Doug Collins, the top Republican on the House Judiciary Committee, on April 8 called on Mueller to testify “immediately.”

How is Trump preparing for the report?

Trump is reportedly in good spirits, largely due to Barr’s letter and his congressional testimony last week vowing to investigate the FBI’s handling of the Russia probe.

Trump has also posted several tweets to express his thoughts on the upcoming report.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

No Collusion – No Obstruction!

But some at the White House are reportedly on edge about Mueller’s findings.

According to one press report, White House officials are preparing for Trump to lash out against any embarrassing details about his administration that might end up in the Mueller document.

Former Trump attorneys who worked on the Russia investigation have said they expect the report to contain information that Democrats can spin against Trump. John Dowd, who was Trump’s lead Russia lawyer until last year, told The Daily Beast that the sheer volume of the report suggests that there will be negative information in the report.

Dowd called Mueller’s report “pure mischief.”

Trump’s current attorneys are more positive, at least publicly.

“We know that the plane landed safely, with no injuries and no damage to the aircraft,” Trump lawyer Jay Sekulow told The Atlantic.

“Now we’ll find out if the landing was really smooth or a little bumpy.”

How will the media cover it?

The liberal press has already shifted away from focusing on the collusion aspect of the investigation, which outlets like CNN, MSNBC, The Washington Post and New York Times have touted for more than two years. The focus has since turned to the obstruction component, as Mueller’s finding there seems to have more opportunity for drama.

Will we learn more about the Steele dossier, or the origins of the Russia probe?

That is unclear.

The FBI officially opened its counterintelligence investigation into the Trump campaign on July 31, 2016, after receiving a tip from the Australian government regarding George Papadopoulos, a young Trump aide.

The investigation gained steam after the FBI began receiving reports from Christopher Steele, a former British spy who worked during the campaign for Hillary Clinton’s campaign and the DNC.

Steele compiled a series of memos that alleged a “well-developed conspiracy” between the Trump team and Kremlin. Steele also alleged that the Russian government had blackmail material on Donald Trump.

What the FBI and Mueller team found regarding the dossier is still a mystery. Mueller & Co. reportedly interviewed Steele soon after the special counsel’s probe began on May 17, 2017. Since then, many of the dossier’s claims have come under intense scrutiny.

In one example, former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen told Congress on Feb. 27 that he has never visited Prague, which is where the dossier claims Cohen secretly met Kremlin insiders in August 2016. (RELATED: Michael Cohen Puts Dagger In The Heart Of Steele Dossier)

The FBI relied heavily on the dossier to obtain surveillance warrants against another Trump campaign adviser, Carter Page.

Page, who testified to Mueller’s grand jury on Nov. 17, 2017, faced no charges in the Mueller probe.

It also appears that the FBI’s initial premise for the counterintelligence investigation, Papadopoulos, went nowhere. Papadopoulos pleaded guilty in the special counsel’s probe on Oct. 5, 2017, and has served a 14-day jail term. But the guilty plea was for making false statements to the FBI, not for conspiring with Russia.

Follow Chuck on Twitter

END

SWAMP STORIES

There seems to be a secret pack between Cummings, Waters and Schiff to target Trump as they try to subpoena all of his financial and banking records

(courtesy Sara Carter)

Reps Cummings, Waters, And Schiff Sign Secret MOUs To Target Trump

Via SaraCarter.com,

Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Elijah Cummings and Financial Services Chairwoman Maxine Waters executed a secret Memorandum of Understanding to “target” President Trump and subpoena all his financial and banking records,according to a letter sent to Cummings from ranking committee member Rep. Jim Jordan.

Further, Jordan’s letter indicates that other MOUs have apparently been signed and agreed to with House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Ca, who has promised to continue investigations into the president despite findings by Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office that there was no conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russia. Attorney General William Barr released a summary of Mueller’s 400 page report several weeks ago and the redacted version of the report is expected to be released by the DOJ this Thursday.

On Monday, Jordan sent a memorandum explaining his objections to the partisan behavior of Cummings and “unprecedented subpoena to Mazars USA LLP,” as reported by SaraACarter.com.

“We’d describe (the MOUs) as an agreement to conspire and coordinate their efforts to attack and investigate POTUS,” said a congressional official with knowledge of the MOUs.

“This is not how committee’s normally operate. Dems aren’t interested in legislating. Only attacking POTUS.”  

Jordan emphatically objected to the secret MOUs and excoriated Democrats who “did not consult with Republican Members of the Committee or allow Members to consider and debate the terms of your MOU before executing the MOU with Chairwoman Waters. You did not disclose the MOU’s existence to Members or the American people until after I raised the matter.”

In the letter Jordan asks Cummings to “provide greater transparency around your secretive conduct.”

Jordan also requested that Cummings answer specific questions about the MOUs.

“If you intend to continue to use the Committee’s limited resources to attack President Trump for political gain, I hope that you will at least be transparent about your actions,” said Jordan at the end of his letter.

“Your ability to function as a fair and unbiased finder of fact is now at grave risk. The Members of the Committee – and, more importantly, the American citizens we represent – deserve to know exactly how you are leading this Committee. I look forward to your detailed answers to these questions.”

Questions for Cummings

  1. How many MOUs with committee chairpersons have you signed as Chairman since the beginning of the 116th Congress?
  2. Would you provide the Committee with a detailed list of the other MOUs you have signed, including their dates, signatories, and topics?
  3. Why did you not publicly disclose that you had signed MOUs with committee chairpersons?
  4. Will you publicly disclose all the MOUs you have signed as Chairman since the beginning of the 116th Congress?
  5. Why did you choose not to consult with any Republican Members before signing these MOUs?
  6. Have you signed any MOUs as Chairman with any entities outside of the House Representatives relating to the Committee’s oversight or legislative work?
  7. To the extent your MOUs create duties for the Committee that conflict with the Rules of the House of Representatives or the Rules of the Committee, which duties prevail?
  8. The Rules of the Committee for the 116th Congress do not authorize the Chairman to bind the Committee through an MOU. Could you explain the specific authority that allows you to bind the Committee through an MOU without first obtaining approval through a vote of the Committee?
  9. As I understand your MOU with Chairwoman Waters, you have committed to sharing Committee information with the Financial Services Committee. This provision of your MOU may conflict with Rules of the House of Representatives and the Committee’s whistleblower protocol, which requires the Committee to keep some Committee information confidential. Will you still protect the confidentiality of whistleblower information notwithstanding your apparent obligation to share it with the Financial Services Committee?
  10. As I understand your MOU with Chairwoman Waters, you have agreed to consult with her before issuing a subpoena. Do you intend to consult with Chairwoman Waters before or after you consult with me, as required by Committee Rules? If I object to your proposed subpoena, do you intend to consult with Chairwoman Waters before or after the Committee votes, as you promised in the Committee’s organizing meeting?
  11. As I understand your MOU with Chairwoman Waters, you have declined to include any provision protecting the Minority’s rights to documentary or testimonial information. Can you guarantee that Minority Members will have the same access to documentary or testimonial information under this MOU as we do in every other Committee inquiry

end

Barr clamps down on the catch and release program in the USA.  Illegal immigrants will now longer be allowed to be released on a bond that they promise to appear before an immigration judge.  It also means that Barr expands the “indefinite detention” period for migrants

(courtesy zerohedge)

Barr Clamps Down On ‘Catch And Release’ With Indefinite Detention For Some Apprehended Migrants

US Attorney General William Barr on Tuesday struck down a decision allowing some asylum seekers to request release on bond in front of an immigration judge – a decision that expands ‘indefinite detention’ for migrants, some of whom must wait months or years for their cases to be heard.

US immigration courts overseen by the Justice Department have become overloaded – as the number of pending cases have jumped more than 26% since October 2017 from 655,807, to just under 830,000 according to the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) of Syracuse University.

 

US Immigration Court backlog (trac.syr.edu)

Last month, Imimgration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) said the average daily population of immigrants in detention topped 46,000 for the 2019 fiscal year – the highest level since the agency was created in 2003.

Even that figure likely understates the backlog because it doesn’t include the impact of the 35-day government shutdown in December and January. Because the system’s roughly 400 immigration judges were furloughed during the shutdown, some 60,000 hearings were canceled. Thousands were rescheduled, adding to the already long wait times.

The administration “has not only failed to reduce the backlog, but has eroded the court’s ability to ensure due process” by pressuring judges to rule “at a breakneck pace” on whether an immigrant should be removed from the United States, the American Immigration Lawyers Assn. — a nonprofit organization of more than 15,000 immigration attorneys and law professors — said in a statement. –LA Times

Barr’s decision applies to migrants who have illegally entered the United States as well as those apprehended within the country, according to Reuters.

Typically, those migrants are placed in “expedited removal” proceedings – a faster form of deportation reserved for people who illegally entered the country within the last two weeks and are detained within 100 miles (160 km) of a land border. Migrants who present themselves at ports of entry and ask for asylum are not eligible for bond.

But before Barr’s ruling, those who had crossed the border between official entry points and asked for asylum were eligible for bond, once they had proven to asylum officers they had a credible fear of persecution. –Reuters

I conclude that such aliens remain ineligible for bond, whether they are arriving at the border or are apprehended in the United States,” wrote Barr, who added that such people can be held in immigration detention until their cases are eventually heard, or the Department of Homeland Security decides to release them by granting them “parole.”

Barr is delaying the effective date of the ruling by 90 days “so that DHS may conduct the necessary operational planning for additional detention and parole decisions.”

According to law professor Steve Vladeck of the University of Texas, the full impact of the decision is not yet clear because it will depend on DHS’ ability to expand detention capabilities.

“The number of asylum seekers who will remain in potentially indefinite detention pending disposition of their cases will be almost entirely a question of DHS’s detention capacity, and not whether the individual circumstances of individual cases warrant release or detention,” said Vladeck.

In early March, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the DHS agency responsible for detaining and deporting immigrants in the country illegally, said the average daily population of immigrants in detention topped 46,000 for the 2019 fiscal year, the highest level since the agency was created in 2003. Last year, Reuters reported that ICE had modified a tool officers have been using since 2013 when deciding whether an immigrant should be detained or released on bond, making the process more restrictive.

The decision will have no impact on unaccompanied migrant children, who are exempt from expedited removal. Most families are also paroled because of a lack of facilities to hold parents and children together. –Reuters

Migrant rights groups are predictably livid over Barr’s ruling. The ACLU’s Michael Tan said that the rights group intends to sue the Trump administration over the decision.

Barr’s decision is the result of a review begun under former Attorney General Jeff Sessions in October.

END

Yuma shuts its doors to illegals as it declares a state of emergencu

(courtesy Sara Carter.Jennie Taer)

Yuma Arizona Shuts Its Doors To Illegals: Declares State Of Emergency

Authored by Jennie Taer via SaraCarter.com,

Yuma Mayor Douglas Nicholls proclaimed a local emergency at approximately 3:10 p.m. on Tuesday, Apr. 16, due to an overwhelming release of migrants into the Yuma community. Nearly 1,300 migrant family members have been released by U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) to the local shelter system in the last three weeks.

Mayor Nicholls proclaimed a local emergency to urge for federal assistance, as more migrant family units continue to be released into a shelter system already at capacity and maxed on resources and volunteers. The shelter system has a maximum capacity of 150-200 people, and it exceeded capacity today.

City of Yuma@cityofyuma

Purpose of the emergency declaration is to request resources to prevent humanitarian crisis. Full statement: https://www.yumaaz.gov/article/city-news/yuma-mayor-douglas-nicholls-proclaims-local-emergency-as-migrant-releases-continue 

“Migrants continue to be released at a rate that cannot be sustained, overwhelming the current non-profit shelter system,” Mayor Nicholls said. He explained it needs to be clear at the national level that Yuma cannot sustain this humanitarian crisis. The proclamation was signed in attempt to avert hundreds of asylum-seeking migrants from being left without resources and potentially out in the greater community.

via Branco

Mayor Nicholls explained migrant families released to the shelter are waiting to be transported to cities throughout the nation; they are not staying in the Yuma community. Prior to arriving at the local shelter, each migrant is processed through USBP, has been issued paperwork to travel in the United States, and has been ordered to appear at a court proceeding.

USBP conducts health and background screenings of each migrant family member. Local law enforcement agencies are engaged and in communication at all hours of the day to keep the community safe.

 

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

U.S. manufacturing output flat as auto production falls

Production at factories dropped at a 1.1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter. That was the first quarterly drop since the third quarter of 2017…

    Motor vehicles and parts production dropped 2.5 percent last month An inventory overhang in the automobile sector is weighing on production, contributing to factory employment declining in March for the first time since July 2017…   https://reut.rs/2GqmcQf

Larry Kudlow Says ‘Very Good Progress’ Being Made in China Talks

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-16/kudlow-says-very-good-progress-being-made-in-china-talks

After the close, IBM reported Q1 revenue of $18.2B; $19.4B was expected.  EPS of 2.25 beat the consensus 2.22.  The last-hour sudden plunge was probably due to the usual leak of coming impact news – in this case, IBM revenue.  IBM reaffirmed its previous forecast of at least $13.90 EPS for 2019.  The stocks fell four points in after-hour trading.

 

Netflix plunged 7% in after-hour trading due to a downward revision in Q2 guidance.  Q1 earnings were .76; .57 was expected.  The company sees Q2 EPS of $0.55 vs. its previous forecast of $0.99.  It revised the Q2 streaming net change to +5m from +6.09m.  The stock recovered most of its initial drop.  Smells like someone protecting a position.

 

Young construction boss, 32, at centre of Notre Dame fire…

Today craftsmen from the company were being questioned by investigators… Investigators believe the devastating blaze started in the roof cavity below the spire where the work, which included the use of electric tools, was being carried out… The blaze began at around 6.50pm but workers would reportedly have downed tools between 5pm and 5.30pm…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6927801/Notre-Dame-construction-boss-boasted-firms-abilities.html

@DidierMaisto: NotreDame: the restoration work itself had not yet started, only the scaffolding was being assembled. No welding and no hot spot possible, therefore (source architect in Chief of #MonumentsHistoriques, François Chatillon)…

     For the Chief Architect of historical monuments responsible for the restoration of the arrow, Phil. Villeneuve, “the work had not yet begunonly the scaffolds were in the process of Assembly (…) the hypothesis of the hot spot is therefore not the right one”.

      “It is not excluded, however, that electrical equipment could have been used to ensure the proper holding of the scaffold. For Albert Bacqueville, a sinister expert #MMA, it is necessary to redouble vigilance at the end of the construction site (source: Le Monde).

https://twitter.com/DidierMaisto/status/1118149724299845633

Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque Fire Burns at the Same Time as Flames Engulf Notre Dame in Paris

News of the incident at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest site in Islam and central to the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict, was largely overshadowed by a much larger blaze engulfing the Notre Dame Cathedral at the same time. There was no evidence of any link between the two fires…

https://www.newsweek.com/notre-dame-fire-aqsa-mosque-1397259

@jsolomonReports: “Almost 100 people have been interviewed by the IG investigation. That is an exhaustive investigation. We’re going to see the FBI laid bare.”

 

Corrupt Cabal Began Illegal Spying on Trump in 2015 – Sidney Powell, ex-DoJ atty

FBI Director Comey and FBI lawyers gave illegal unsupervised access to three private contractors to mine the NSA database.  I’ve said for two years I’d bet money one of those redacted names is FusionGPS.  It goes back at least as far as 2015, and it is no coincidence that Nellie Ohr, who also worked for CIA Director John Brennan, went to work for FusionGPS in 2015.  She has admitted to Congress that she was “researching” the Trump family and General Flynn among others…

https://sidneypowell.com/media/mueller-report-will-shroud-the-truth-corrupt-cabal-began-illegal-spying-on-trump-in-2015/

Ex-asst Dir of FBI Intel: Electronic surveillance isn’t spying; it’s much more powerful

A Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court-ordered electronic surveillance allows the FBI leeway to intercept more than telephone and computer communications. It allows the clandestine microphone and camera capture of the target at all times and in all places, even the most intimate, of his daily life. It is more intrusive than even a Title III criminal wiretap of a drug dealer or mob boss…

The silly semantical jousting over “spying” versus “surveillance” is a distraction. The real concern among the “collusionistas” is that AG Barr has launched his own review into the origins of Comey’s and McCabe’s investigation of the Trump campaign

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/439046-electronic-surveillance-isnt-spying-its-much-more-powerful

Andy McCarthy: Behind the Obama administration’s shady plan to spy on the Trump campaign

Less than a year ago, we learned the Obama administration had used a confidential informant — a spy — to approach at least three Trump campaign officials in the months leading up to the 2016 election…

    There is no doubt that the Obama administration spied on the Trump campaign. As Barr made clear, the real question is: What predicated the spying? Was there a valid reason for it, strong enough to overcome our norm against political spying? Or was it done rashly?…

     Imagine the Democrats’ response if, say, the Bush administration had run a covert intelligence operative against Obama 2008 campaign officials, including the campaign’s co-chairman…

    The question is: What should trigger such an investigation in a democratic republic whose norms strongly discourage an incumbent administration’s use of the government’s spying powers against political opponents?…  [To prevent massive illegal spying from being exposed?]

https://nypost.com/2019/04/15/behind-the-obama-administrations-shady-plan-to-spy-on-the-trump-campaign/

Ex-FBI agent Mark Mauck: What Was behind the Mueller Appointment?

[Rosenstein] actually engaged in loose talk with McCabe (a true crazy) about removing Trump through the 25th amendment, even volunteering to wear a wire into the Oval Office… Fueled by all that loose talk,McCabe went ahead and opened an obstruction investigation on the POTUS, apparently without consulting first with Rosenstein. The insanity of this move and its legal threadbareness jolted our boy Rod back to reality–and to the extreme precariousness of his positionGone were fantasies of revenge against Trump. Sheer survival had become the name of the game.

   Rosenstein realized he had to do something to short circuit the FBI investigation, because sooner or later, and probably sooner, Trump would learn about it and fire Rosenstein… This would, of course, utterly trash Rosenstein’s career and render him a laughing stock in the larger legal community…

   Rosenstein’s escape plan–a daring ploy–became the Special Counsel appointment… Rosenstein persuaded Mueller–who, despite his nominal GOP creds, had run the FBI as a true liberal—[that the Deep State]needed to be protected from a hostile takeover by the Trumpistas…

http://meaninginhistory.blogspot.com/2019/04/what-was-behind-mueller-appointment.html?m=1

Ex-Clinton lawyer and current Mueller prosecutor Jeannie Rhee, as well as a few other prosecutors, withdrew from the Roger Stone, Concord Management and Manafort forfeiture cases yesterday.  What a difference a legitimate AG makes!

White House officials concerned about being exposed by Mueller report

Some of the dozen-plus officials interviewed by Mueller are concerned about president’s “wrath” if they are seen as a source of damaging information in Thursday’s report.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/white-house-officials-concerned-about-being-exposed-mueller-report-n994861

As we keep harping, Trump made some bone-headed hires.

Reps Elijah Cummings, Maxine Waters and Adam Schiff Sign Secret MOUs to Target Trump

According to a letter sent to Cummings from ranking committee member Rep. Jim Jordan…

https://saraacarter.com/reps-elijah-cummings-maxine-waters-and-adam-schiff-sign-secret-mous-to-target-trump/

Fox’s @LucasFoxNews: US Navy’s next expected top officer says Navy F-18 Super Hornet fighter jets now 76% fully mission capable.  Adm. Bill Moran says 18 months ago <50% of Super Hornets were fully mission capable.

 

I WILL SEE YOU THURSDAY NIGHT
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