MAY 20/Gold up $1.00 to $1277.25/Silver up 6 cents to $14.47//the big events today: Turkey//China (lack of a trade deal) etc

To all:

 

I am sorry for being late.  I decided to travel with my wife to Montreal this long weekend.  The problem was I had little access to a computer.

 

I arrived home at 5:30 tonight

 

so I have raced to give you the data.

 

all data is complete

 

the only thing missing is my comments but you are now so knowledgeable of this you really do not need me.

This was my first trip in 8 months.

 

here is your data;

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1277.25  UP $1.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.47 UP 6 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold : 1277.35

 

 

 

silver:  $14.47

 

 

 

COMEX EXPIRY FOR GOLD/SILVER:  TUES MAY 28/2019

 

LBMA/OTC EXPIRY: MAY 31.2019

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 1/1

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,274.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/17/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/21/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1 1
MONTH TO DATE: 291

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ (0.0031 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  291 NOTICES FOR 29100 OZ  (.9051 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

 

 

49 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 245,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3441 for 17,205,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$7255  DOWN $632

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $7104 DOWN $766

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 219 CONTRACTS FROM 209,508 UP TO 209,727 DESPITE FRIDAY’S  13 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW IN FULL FORCE FOR GOLD. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 2202 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2202 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2202 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2202 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.01 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 13 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

AND NOW 18.395 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:

17,136 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 17,136 CONTRACTS) OR 85.68 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1223 CONTRACTS OR 6.115 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY:  85.68 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 12.24% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          826,78    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 219 DESPITE THE LARGE 13 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2202 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2421 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2202 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 219  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 13 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.42 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.022 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 145% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 49 NOTICE(S) FOR  245,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY:  18.395 MILLION OZ ..
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4011 CONTRACTS, TO 517,232 WITH THE  FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A LOSS IN PRICE OF $9.70//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  STRONG SIZED 8568 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 8568 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 518,572.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4557 CONTRACTS: 4011 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 8,568 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4557 CONTRACTS OR 455700 OZ OR 14.17 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF  $9.70.AND WITH LARGE LOSS, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 18.34  TONNES!!!!!!.?????? 

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE MAY HAVE HAD SOME ACTIVITY WITH FRIDAY’S FALL IN PRICE

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

ON FRIDAY’S REPORT , I FORGOT TO GIVE YOU THE SPREADING RESULTS

AS YOU CAN SEE THE NET 5699 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WERE ADDED BY OUR BANKERS 

SILVER WAS A NEGLIGIBLE GAIN

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
226,361 101,825 78,759 159,444 296,627 464,564 477,211
Change from Prior Reporting Period
40,560 -8,565 5,699 17,366 58,190 63,625 55,324
Traders
185 65 77 51 57 267 175
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
53,431 40,784 517,995  
4,331 12,632 67,956  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, May 14, 2019

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 93,666 CONTRACTS OR 9,366,600 OR 291.34 TONNES (14 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6690 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 291.34 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 291.34/3550 x 100% TONNES =8.20% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2106.88 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4011 WITH THE LARGE FALL IN PRICING ($9.70) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8568 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8568 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5897 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8568 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4011 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 14.17 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE OF $9.70 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.WE PROBABLY HAD A SMALL PRESENCE OF SPREADING TODAY WITH RESPECT TO THE RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKS.

 

 

 

we had:  1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.00  TODAY

A BIG CHANGE AGAIN  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

A DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES INTO THE GLD//

 

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.17 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY:

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 219 CONTRACTS from 209,602 UPTO 209,727 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 2202 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2202 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 219 CONTRACTS TO THE 2202 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 2421 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12.105 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 18.395 MILLION OZ FOR MAY

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 13 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1368 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.69 POINTS OR 0.41%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 158.85 POINTS OR 0.57%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 53.64 POINTS OR 0.24%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.62%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9123 /Oil UP to 61.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9123 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9392 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

i)NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China/

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

 

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

a)TURKEY

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

Canada/Mexico/USA

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

VENEZUELA

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

Late trading today.

 

 

 

ii)Market data

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

 

SWAMP STORIES

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4011 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 517,282 DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($9.70) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8568 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 8568 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8568 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 4219 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8568 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 2671 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 4557 contracts OR 455,700 OZ OR 14.17 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 67 contracts, having LOST 2 contracts. We had 2 notices served yesterday so we gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus

The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest FELL by 8784 contracts DOWN to 254,894.  July GAINED 123 contracts to stand at 493.  After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 4048 contracts up to 166,971 contracts.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 1 NOTICE FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  100  OZ. (0.0031 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 219 CONTRACTS FROM 209.508 UP TO 209,727 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A  13 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  HERE WE HAVE 287 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A LOSS OF 66 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 15 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE LOST 51 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 255,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS  MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ACCEPTED A FIAT BONUS.  THESE GUYS GAVE UP WAITING AT THE COMEX AND TRIED THEIR LUCK OVER IN LONDON.

 

 

 

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF  JUNE.  HERE THIS MONTH LOST 2 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 721. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH LOST 123 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 158,207 CONTRACTS. THE NEXT ACTIVE MONTH AFTER JULY FOR SILVER IS SEPTEMBER AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 197 UP TO 19,520 CONTRACTS.

SURPRISINGLY DESPITE THE RAID WE HAD NO LIQUIDATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER.  THE ENTIRE COMEX GOLD AND SILVER DEPLETION LANDED IN EFP CONTRACTS (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL CONTRACTS) 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 49 notice(s) filed for 245,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 253,069  CONTRACTS 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  292,820  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MAY/GOLD

MAY 20 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
(0.0031 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
66 contracts
(6600 oz)
0.2052 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
291 notices
29100 OZ
.9051 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ nothing arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had 0 withdrawal:

 

.

total gold withdrawals;    nil oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustments today

FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (291) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (67 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 35,700 OZ OR 1.110 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (291 x 100 oz)  + (67)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 35,700 oz standing OR 1.110 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.

We gained 0 contract or an additional NIL oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards. Queue jumping took a temporary hiatus in

in gold

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 6.632 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 1.110 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

IF THIS IS GOING ON IN MAY, I JUST CANNOT WAIT TO SEE WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  213,219.982 oz or  6.632tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,701,987.623 oz 239.56 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR MAY 2018 AND FINAL STANDING MAY 31 2018

 

 

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND.  BY MONTH’S END:  2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 116 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
MAY 20 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
783,090.731 oz
Brinks
CNT
Loomis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
597,082.770 oz
Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
49
CONTRACT(S)
(245,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
238 contracts
1,190,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3441 contracts

17,205,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/307 million)

 

into Loomis: 597,082.770 OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  597.082.770  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Brinks:  105,092.641 oz

ii) Out of CNT; 617,669.893 oz

iii) Out of Lomis: 60,328.197 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  783,090.731 oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

out of BCNT:  118m009.4 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks

 

total dealer silver:  92.321 million

total dealer + customer silver:  305.078 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 49 contract(s) FOR  245,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3441 x 5,000 oz = 17,205,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (287) and the number of notices served upon today (49 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 3441(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 287) -number of notices served upon today (49)x 5000 oz equals 18,395,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.

We LOST 51 contracts or an additional 295,000 oz will NOT stand as these guys  morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts. They gave up waiting for metal at the comex so they have tried their luck over in London.

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  46,662 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 68,315 CONTRACTS..

 

..

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 68315 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 341 million  OZ 48.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.42% (MAY 20/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.05% to NAV (MAY 20/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.42%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.91 TRADING 12.36/DISCOUNT 4.22

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 A HUGE 2.96 TONNE DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.17 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.50: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.23 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $15.40 TODAY: STRANGE! A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES OF GOLD (TO TAME GOLD’S RISE TODAY)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES

APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY  (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

 

APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP  $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAY 20/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 736.46 tonnes

*IN LAST 594 TRADING DAYS: 197.80NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 494 TRADING DAYS: A NET 31.96 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ

MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.185 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY VAULTS:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ//

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV  INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ//  THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 13//WITH SILVE5 DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ…

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//

April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

 

 

 

MAY 20/2019:

 

Inventory 312.366 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.12/ and libor 6 month duration 2.55

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .43

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.33%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.63

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.30

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Suppression: It’s Not a Question of IF but to WHAT EXTENT

by Frank Holmes via USFunds.com

First of all, let me say that gold price suppression (“fixing,” “rigging,” “manipulating” or however else you want to think about it) is not just a conspiracy theory.

It’s a well-documented phenomenon, with real actors and real ramifications.

In 2014, Barclays was fined nearly $44 million for failing to prevent traders from manipulating the London gold “fix.” Late last year, a former JPMorgan trader pleaded guilty to manipulating the U.S. metals markets. Remember the gold futures “flash crash” of 2014?

The best people to speak to about this subject are the folks at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, or GATA. For 20 years now, Chris Powell and others at GATA have made it their mission to expose collusion by international financial institutions to control the price and supply of gold.

This week I had the chance to sit down with Chris, GATA’s secretary/treasurer. I asked him how institutions manage to manipulate the price of gold on such a global scale.

“It’s done largely in the futures markets,” Chris told me. “It’s also done in the London over-the-counter (OTC) market. The mechanisms are gold swaps and leases between central banks and bullion banks, and through the sale of futures contracts.”

GATA’s Robert Lambourne reported on this in March of this year. As you can see in the chart below, gold rallied between November 2018 and February, when it peaked at around $1,343 an ounce.

Ordinarily, you could expect inventory in the bullion-backed SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) to continue to climb at least until then. But that’s not at all what happened. Three weeks before the price of gold peaked, the holdings in the GLD curiously began to fall, and by March 4, the ETF had lost approximately 57.8 metric tonnes. And because the GLD is the largest gold ETF in the world—its value stands at $30.2 billion, as of this week—such selling will naturally impact the price of gold. Sure enough, the yellow metal soon fell below $1,300. What gives?

Click to enlarge

The answer to that question may lie in the BIS’ monthly statement of account for February. According to Robert’s reporting, the BIS was still actively trading gold swaps, which it uses to gain access to the metal held by commercial banks. Specifically, the bank placed as much as 56 metric tonnes of gold swaps into the market in February.

If you ask me, that amount is remarkably close to the 57.8 tonnes that fled the GLD in the first quarter of this year.

Hard to believe? This is only scratching the surface. I’ll let Chris Powell be the one to elaborate, but it will have to wait until a Frank Talk next week. Trust me when I say this is an interview you don’t want to miss! Make sure you’re subscribed to Frank Talk so you can be one of the first to read it.

This is an excerpt. For the full ‘Investor Alert’ click here

Watch Part II Here and Part I Here

News

European Shares Under Pressure From Chipmakers, Ryanair, Trade Worries

Gold Near 2-week Low as Dollar Eclipses Safe-haven Appeal

Asian Shares Steady After Slump, Oil Jumps on Saudi Comments

U.S. Warship Sails in Disputed South China Sea Amid Trade Tensions

Bitcoin Rally Is Masking Capital Flight From Crypto Exchanges

Commentary

Brutal Gold Futures Explain Last Week’s Price Decline

Chinese Seeking $10,000 Gold Price

Record-Setting Art Sales Confirm Global Liquidity Bubble

Why Now Is The Time To Buy Gold  

Why China Is the World’s Largest Gold Consumer 

Must Read Guide: Avoid ETF and ‘Platform Gold’ – 7 Real Risks to Your Gold Ownership

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

 



iii) Other Physical stories
 
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.9123/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9392   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 11.69 POINTS OR 0.41%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 158.85 POINTS OR 0.57%

 

2. Nikkei closed  DOWN 53.64 POINTS OR 0.24%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED /

 

 

 

USA dollar index RISES TO 97.97/Euro FALLS TO 1.1154

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.64/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 62.93 and Brent: 72.70

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.10%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.67% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.88%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.73: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.41

3k Gold at $1278.00 silver at: 14.44   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.52

3m oil into the 62 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.91 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0104 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1285 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.10%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.38% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.82%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.0183..they are toast

Stocks Tumble As Huawei Boycott Erupts, Slamming Tech

When the semiconductor index was soaring in the past few weeks even as semi shipments and revenue forecasts plunged to the lowest since the financial crisis, many said that the market knew something other didn’t.

In retrospect, the market was absolutely clueless and semi stocks and tech names are freefalling today following the overnight news that in the aftermath of Trump’s ban of Huawei, some of the Chinese telecom giant’s biggest suppliers such as Intel, Qualcomm, Xilinx and Broadcom, told their employees they would not supply Huawei till further notice, while Google cut off the supply of hardware and some software services to Huawei smartphones.

As a result of this latest escalation against China’s crown tech jewel, an early push higher in S&P futures fizzled and futures slumped, dropping alongside European stocks, while bonds pared an earlier loss and crude oil advanced. In fact, after some early strength, global markets became a sea of rad with Nasdaq futures leading U.S. declines and pointed to a weak opening in New York…

… while software and chip maker shares helped pull the Stoxx Europe 600 index lower as chipmakers Infineon Technologies, AMS and STMicroelectronics dropped sharply after Nikkei Asian Review reported that German chipmaker Infineon had halted shipments to Huawei.

Stocks took a leg lower just after 4am EDT after twitter account @Money_China published unverified rumours that there had been a break down in US-China trade discussions, and that China will suspend business with all suppliers who have agreed to halt supplying Huawei. 

Investor Jim Rogers told the Reuters Global Markets Forum that he believed Washington and Beijing would soon announce a trade deal, although the current spat would not be the last time Trump tried to exploit the prospect of a trade war: “These are negotiating tactics from Mr. Trump at the moment. What will happen is we will have some good news, the market will have a rally. It will probably be the last rally.”

Others, such as former SNB governor and current vice chairman at BlackRock, Philipp Hildebrand, told Bloomberg TV that “the baseline scenario is not bad” for global growth. “It’s really a risk story. So far we don’t see much of it being manifested in the hard data. It’s really the re-ordering of the global trading system that’s at stake here.”

Equities were mixed across Asia, with regional shares playing catch up to the US, and managing to reverse some of last week’s heavy losses on Monday, after the United States said it would lift tariffs in North America, as investors cheered apparent wins by Conservative incumbent parties in elections in Australia and India. Stocks rallied in Australia and the nation’s currency jumped after a surprise election victory for conservative Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

As we reported on Sunday, Australia’s ruling Coalition led by PM Morrison is set to remain in power for a 3rd consecutive term following the Federal election on Saturday with the incumbents having at least 75 seats vs. 67 seats for Labor, while other reports suggested that the Coalition has managed to obtain a majority

While the Shanghai Composite posted another modest drop (down -0.4%), China’s offshore yuan strengthened, providing a glimpe of hope after the trade war dragged down the currency to a five-month low. The euro steadied after five days of declines as elections for the European Parliament approached. Treasury 10-year note yields erased an earlier advance to trade little changed.

“Market volatility continues to stem from announcements and interpretations of what is going on in trade disputes between the U.S. and its trading partners, but principally China,” said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group. “Whilst the latest headlines over Canada are supportive of sentiment, a news bite which increases risk aversion could be just around the corner. Investors know this and are on edge right now. That won’t change overnight. China are unlikely to take Google’s suspension of business with Huawei lying down.”

It wasn’t all bad news: as Reuters notes, on the positive side, a U.S. decision on Friday to remove tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum prompted Canada’s foreign minister to vow the quick ratification of a new North American trade agreement. The MSCI index of world shares rose 0.08% in early trading, but that gain was almost certain to become a loss by EOD. It remains some 3.6% below its 2019 highs as the sudden return of trade war jitters sent the stock market’s strong rally into reverse.

In rates, 10Y US Treasurys were unchanged at 2.39% after climbing 2bps earlier, while European bonds edged lower with the region’s parliamentary elections in focus this week. German government bond yields moved slightly higher. That followed a fall toward new 2-1/2 year lows last week after investors flocked to safe-haven debt. Austrian yields held firm after a scandal prompted Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to pull the plug on his coalition with the far right at the weekend, raising the chances of a snap election.

In FX, the Australian dollar was the biggest winner, jumping nearly 1% after the center-right Liberal National Coalition pulled off a shock win in a federal election, beating the center-left Labor party. The Indian rupee also rallied after exit polls pointed to a majority for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and allies. The rupee was last up 1.1%.

China’s offshore yuan rebounded after touching its weakest against the dollar since November on Friday. It last traded up 0.1% at 6.9441 per dollar. Sources told Reuters China’s central bank is expected to use foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy tools to stop it weakening past the 7-per-dollar level in the near term. Meanwhile, the dollar slipped slightly against the euro to $1.1161. Sterling recovered 0.3% to $1.2751 after suffering its biggest weekly loss since 2017 after an apparent collapse in Brexit talks in London.

In commodities, oil prices jumped after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that there was consensus among the members of the OPEC to maintain production cuts to “gently” reduce inventories (although Russia did not sound nearly as confident). Both U.S. crude and Brent crude jumped more than 1.1% on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate fetching $63.5 a barrel and Brent crude at $73.04 per barrel.  Rising tensions in the Middle East, which have supported oil prices, ratcheted up another notch on the weekend as Trump issued new threats, tweeting that a conflict with Iran would be the “official end” of that country.

Expected data include Chicago Fed National Activity. Pinduoduo and International Game report earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,857.00
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 154.63
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 505.86
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 21,301.73
  • Topix up 0.04% to 1,554.92
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 27,787.61
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 2,870.60
  • Sensex up 3.4% to 39,217.80
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.7% to 6,476.10
  • Kospi unchanged at 2,055.71
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 381.11
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to -0.084%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.1162
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 2.287%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.882%
  • Brent Futures up 0.6% to $72.67/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,275.32
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.03% to 97.97

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Top U.S. corporations from chipmakers to Google have frozen the supply of critical software and components to Huawei Technologies Co.
  • The shock election win by Australia’s center-right government and its agenda of sweeping tax cuts have cast doubt on the outlook for interest-rate cuts. Traders are pricing in a 57% chance of a reduction in the cash rate in June, down from 70% Friday, as the Reserve Bank prepares to release minutes of this month’s meeting Tuesday
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition is poised for victory in India’s general elections, exit polls showed, giving it another five years running the world’s fastest-growing major economy despite a jobs crisis and struggling rural sector
  • Amber Rudd, the U.K. work and pensions secretary, will lead a group of 60 Tories seeking to stop bookmakers’ favorite Boris Johnson from succeeding PM May and pursuing a chaotic no-deal exit from the European Union
  • President Donald Trump warned Iran not to threaten the U.S. or face ruinous consequences as tensions mount between Washington and Tehran
  • Japan’s economy beat expectations with growth during the first quarter of the year, but a look under the hood shows that its engine is far from robust as policy makers brace for a sales tax hike in October
  • Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s center-right government will command a parliamentary majority with his Liberal-National coalition securing 77 seats in the 151-member lower house
  • The People’s Bank of China warned that the escalating trade war could destabilize the global economy, and vowed to continue with targeted stimulus at home while keeping the currency steady
  • The Trump administration’s threats to choke Huawei Technologies Co. is hitting some of the biggest component-makers. Blocking the sale to Huawei of critical components could also disrupt businesses of American chip giants like Micron Technology Inc. and hamper the rollout of critical 5G wireless networks worldwide
  • China’s yuan, already battered by the U.S. trade dispute, will soon have a catalyst for further depreciation. Offshore-listed Chinese companies will sell the yuan to buy foreign currencies and fund their $18.8 billion dividend bill due from June to August, according to Bloomberg calculations

Asia equity markets were somewhat mixed as lingering trade uncertainty clouded over a buoyant start to the week. ASX 200 (+1.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) were rampant at the open with the Australian benchmark at its highest since 2007 following a surprise win by PM Morrison’s ruling Coalition which defied the opinion polls to beat the Labor party and even reportedly secured a majority, while Tokyo sentiment was underpinned by a weaker currency and after much better than expected GDP growth for Q1. However, some of the gains were later pared as China entered the fray in which Shanghai Comp (-0.4%) and Hang Seng (-0.6%) resumed their losses amid US-China trade tensions after reports suggested negotiations were in flux and that talks have stalled, while comments from China were also concerning as Foreign Minister Wang warned the US to not go too far. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid a lack of demand for safe-havens in Japan and after the better than expected GDP numbers, while an enhanced-liquidity auction for longer-dated bonds also saw slightly weaker demand from prior. China Foreign Minister Wang Yi said recent words and actions by US have harmed interests of China and its enterprises, while he added that China oppose these actions and warned the US to not go too far. Wang added that the trade dispute must be solved through negotiation on an equal footing and hopes both sides will avoid escalating tensions.

Top Asian News

  • Australia’s Morrison Leads Conservatives to Shock Election Win
  • Japan’s Economy Grows in 1Q Despite Global Headwinds
  • China Says ‘Wait and See’ on Huawei Countermeasures
  • Rupee Jumps With Stocks and Bonds as Exit Polls Signal Modi Win

European equities have kicked off the week on the backfoot [Eurostoxx 50 -1.2%] following on from a mixed lead in Asia with sentiment in Europe dampened on speculation that China will retaliate against Huawei measures [NOTE: THIS IS UNVERIFIED] after Google suspended Huawei from Android access. As such, broad based losses are seen across European equities with Italy’s FTSE MIB (-2.0%) the clear laggard amid a slew of large cap ex-divs. Sectors are mostly lower with defensive sectors buoyed by the risk-averse tone whilst energy names are supported by the price action in the complex. On the downside, material and IT names are the clear underperformers with the former subdued by price action in base metals. Meanwhile, the latter is pressured amid a decline in semiconductor names following reports via the Nikkei that Infineon (-4.6%) reportedly halted shipments to Huawei, in turn moving fellow chip names lower in sympathy including Dialog Semiconductor (-3.4%), ASM (-3.0%) and STMicroelectronics (-8.3%).  On the flip side, the aforementioned Google/Huawei news supported Huawei’s European competitors with Nokia (+2.0%) and Ericsson (+1.0%) shares underpinned by the reports. Finally, in terms of individual movers, Ryanair (-2.7%) fell as much as 5% at the open following earnings coupled with a downbeat fares outlook. Elsewhere, Deutsche Bank (-3.0%) shares slid after anti-money laundering specialists at the Co. flagged up suspicious financial transactions involving legal entities controlled by US President Trump and his son-in-law Kushner. Turning to some analysis from Nomura, Quant Insights note that CTAs seem to be looking for opportunities to unwind long positions in US equity futures. Nomura also predicts that this week, US equities “looks likely to be influenced less by trend-following trading based on systematic rules than by fundamental trading based on discretionary calls.”, given the current supply/demand balance.

Top European News

  • Merkel Pressured by Her Successor to Resign After EU Vote
  • Labour’s Corbyn Moves Closer to Backing Second Brexit Referendum
  • ECB Has to ‘Keep Going’ on Inflation, Knot Says: Corriere
  • Salvini’s Chief Aide Turns Against Italy PM Before European Vote

In FX, AUD enjoyed a sharp rebound from recent multi-month lows vs its US counterpart following the weekend Australian election that saw PM Morrison upset the pre-vote odds to secure a 3rd term in office and his coalition gain a majority over the Labour Party. Aud/Usd has reclaimed 0.6900+ status in response having traded down to 0.6862 last week in wake of disappointing jobs data that heightened the prospect of a June RBA rate cut.

  • NZD – The next best G10 currency as the Kiwi catches a bid on the coattails of its antipodean peer, albeit hampered by Aud/Nzd cross-flows up to 1.0600 at one stage. Nevertheless, Nzd/Usd hit a 0.6550 overnight high compared to 0.6521 at worst and last week’s 0.6512 base (Friday), as the US Dollar loses momentum broadly after its post-data/survey and China trade war related rally. On that note, the DXY has topped out just above 98.000 and ahead of resistance including a 98.035 Fib and the early May high of 98.102.
  • GBP – The Pound has also pared some losses partly on the aforementioned Dollar downturn, but also against a lagging Euro, with Cable bouncing off a 1.2723 trough to just over 1.2750 and Eur/Gbp easing back to 0.8750 from 0.8775. Brexit and UK political uncertainty are still to the fore, but Sterling appears to be benefiting from some short covering/profit taking alongside technical buying, with a Fib in the cross sitting at 0.8779.
  • CHF/CAD – Also benefiting from the Buck fade, as the Franc rebounds through 1.0100 and Loonie further from 1.3500+ lows amidst more reports that a deal is done to lift US steel and aluminium tariffs. The Cad may also be gleaning traction from a post-JMMC bounce in crude prices, like the NOK, which is outperforming its Scandi rival with the Eur cross back down under 9.8000 vs Eur/Sek at 10.7600.
  • EUR/JPY – As noted above, the single currency is a relative underperformer as Eur/Usd struggles to recover between 1.1168-51 parameters despite reports of bids/support at 1.1150 protecting near term support at 1.1135 and the 1.1112 ytd low. Decent option expiry interest may be keeping the headline pair in check given almost 1 bn running off from 1.1150 to 1.1160 at today’s NY cut, while chart resistance resides at 1.1190-1.1200 in the form of 100 and 200 HMAs. Meanwhile, the Yen has lost a bit more of its safe-haven allure following overnight Japanese Q1 GDP that topped consensus considerably, with Usd/Jpy up over 110.00 and as high as 110.31 at one stage.
  • EM – The Turkish Lira has failed to sustain recovery gains towards 6.0000 and higher vs the Greenback yet again after weekend comments from President Erdogan suggesting that it may bring forward its planned purchase of S-400 missiles from Russia rather than delaying the order amidst opposition and the threat of sanctions from the US.

In commodities, the energy complex is ultimately in the green, albeit off highs, as sentiment dampened amidst unconfirmed reports of a deteriorating relationship between US and China. WTI (+0.2%) and Brent (+0.4%) prices are underpinned in the aftermath of the JMMC meeting as key oil figureheads noted that concerns of rising stockpiles outweighed supply issues from Iran and Venezuela. Thus, energy ministers hinted at their dedication to extend the OPEC+ output pact beyond June, although any revisions to the current deal will be decided at next months meeting. Rhetoric from the energy ministers deviated slightly, with sources stating that Saudi Arabia is in no rush to increase production as the Kingdom is satisfied with oil around USD 70/bbl, whilst its Russian counterpart noted that all options are still on the table ahead of June, including a hike in production. Furthermore, sources noted that the Russian and Saudi oil figureheads reportedly discussed two options for June. The first scenario would see an elimination of over compliance currently over 150%, equating to an output cuts just under 2mln BPD, according to calculations. This would mean a continuation of the current deal and an increase in production of around 0.8mln BPD. The second scenario would see an ease of the agreed cuts to 0.9mln BPD from 1.2mln BPD.

Elsewhere, gold (-0.2%) prices lost more ground to the rising Buck with prices now flirting with the 1275/oz mark. Meanwhile, copper prices extended losses amid the souring risk tone given the aforementioned unconfirmed reports regard US/China. Furthermore, last week money managers increased their net short positions in COMEX copper by almost 8.5k lots, holding a net short of 35.3k lots, whilst speculators increase gross shorts by 4.8k lots and liquidated 3.6k gross long positions over the week.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.2, prior -0.1
  • 9:30am: Fed’s Harker Speaks About Management Science in Boston
  • 1pm: Clarida, Williams Take Part in ‘Fed Listens’ Event in New York
  • 7pm: Powell Speaks at Atlanta Fed Financial Markets Conference

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The job of an analyst is pretty hard work and stressful with your market calls exposed to all who read. So when you get something spectacularly correct it takes a lot of will power not to boast about it. We don’t have any such will power or false modesty so this morning we are patting ourselves on the back for a wonderful call on Friday in the EMR. Yes we correctly predicted that the UK would finish bottom of Eurovision. SPOILER ALERT…… congratulations to the Netherlands. Talking of spoilers, today is about making it through the day without finding out what happened in the final ever Game of Thrones which finished only an hour or so before I type this. 73 episodes, 8 years and one or two casualties later the story has come to a close. This series has generally got slated by the army of fans but I’ve really enjoyed it. I hope I’m still saying that after we watch tonight. Please don’t worry as they’ll be no spoilers in tomorrow’s EMR.

In market terms the real Game of Thrones at the moment is the escalating trade war between the US and China. There’s a lot at stake but at least there aren’t White Walkers. Outside of trade we also have a few interesting events this week. Most fascinating could be the European Parliament elections (Thursday and through to the weekend) although results won’t filter through until Sunday. We also have the key flash May PMIs which may offer some early insight into the impact of trade escalation on sentiment. The FOMC and ECB meeting minutes are also due, along with a heavy calendar of Fed officials speaking.

Looking at these in a little more detail now. The European Parliament elections will be an interesting barometer of the current strength of anti-EU and populist party support, and with it how much they can distrust mainstream (generally EU friendly) legislation. For a full preview, our economists in Europe have written a series of notes. See part 1 , part 2 , part 3 and part 4 here. In the UK, we face the prospect of the newly founded Brexit party winning the most votes (according to recent opinion polls) which will be an uncomfortable outcome for both the UK and Europe.

As for the data, this week sees the start of surveys that cover the trade-escalation period. The highlight will be the flash May PMIs in Europe and the US on Thursday. A reminder that last month the manufacturing reading for the Eurozone bounced an albeit modest 0.4pts off the recent low to 47.9. The consensus for this Thursday is a further modest improvement to 48.2. The services reading is also expected to rise 0.2pts to 53.0 putting the consensus for the composite at 51.8 versus 51.5 in April. For Germany, the manufacturing reading is expected to improve 0.4pts but to a still lowly 44.8, while France is expected to flatline at 50.0. For the US, the manufacturing reading is expected to rise 0.4pts to 53.0. Obviously any signs that trade is denying sentiment will be seized on.

Also worth watching this week given we’re all waiting for the impact of trade on sentiment is the May IFO survey in Germany on Thursday and May confidence indicators in France on the same day.

The FOMC meeting minutes from the April 30-May 1 meeting are due on Wednesday. A reminder that at that meeting Chair Powell emphasised that a good portion of the weakness in core inflation was due to transient factors and pointed to the trimmed mean inflation rate being at the Fed’s 2% target. Powell also sounded more upbeat on the growth outlook, noting a dissipation in downside risks with financial conditions accommodative. That appeared to disappoint the market at the time which was leaning towards a more dovish outcome. The rest of the week ahead is published at the end today.

Turning now to the latest news on the trade war. Bloomberg is reporting this morning that top US corporations including Intel Corp., Qualcomm Inc., Xilinx Inc., Broadcom Inc. and Google have now frozen the supply of critical software and components to Huawei as companies respond to the new US rules. Asian markets are trading mixed with the Nikkei (+0.25%) and Kospi (+0.52%) up while the Hang Seng (-0.43%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.59%) are down. Australian markets (S&P ASX +1.61%) and the currency (+0.73%) are up on the surprise re-election of Prime Minister Scott Morrison in the weekend election. The Indian rupee is also up +0.93% this morning alongside Indian markets as exit polls showed yesterday that the incumbent Modi government is expected to retain power later this week. In terms of overnight data releases, Japan’s preliminary annualised Q1 GDP came in at +2.1% qoq vs. (-0.2% qoq expected) while the previous quarter was revised down to +1.6% qoq from +1.9% qoq. The biggest driver was imports falling much faster than exports thereby signalling that net exports fuelled the growth; however, declining imports signal that underlying demand in the economy remains weak so most analysts see the beat as anomalous. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.31% while China’s onshore yuan is +0.14% this morning. Overnight, oil prices (WTI +1.35% and Brent +1.41%) are up as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members signalled their intentions to keep supplies constrained for the rest of the year. A weekend tweet from US President Trump that “If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran” is also helping keep the oil price elevated.

In other news, the deputy governor of the PBOC, Pan Gongsheng, said over the weekend that China has the confidence and capability to keep its foreign exchange market stable and ensure that the yuan trades at a reasonable and equilibrium level. Elsewhere, the PBOC said in its quarterly monetary policy report that the escalating trade war could destabilise the global economy, and vowed to continue with targeted stimulus at home while keeping the currency steady. The report said that the government still has room for maneuver with the fiscal policy, while the PBOC will remain supportive without flooding the economy with cash. The report also added back language on structural deleveraging, likely signalling renewed focus on debt risks even amid a darkening outlook.

In terms of Brexit, the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn moved closer to fully backing a second Brexit referendum, saying it was reasonable that the public should be given a choice on any deal to leave the European Union. This is change in Corbyn’s earlier stance where he has previously said that the country should be offered a vote on PM May’s Brexit deal whereas on Sunday, on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show, he seemed to be calling for a vote on any Brexit package, including one proposed by the Labour party. He also said on the show that freedom of movement would be “open for negotiation” if he were in charge of determining the UK’s future relationship with the EU, thereby moving away from the Labour’s 2017 election manifesto, which said, “Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union.”

Turning back to Friday’s and last week’s action now. This was understandably dominated by trade developments. The news on Friday was universally negative as far as the US-China negotiations were concerned. First, the Chinese state media outlet the People’s Daily suggested that Chinese authorities will not continue negotiating until the US shifts its current position. That suggests that further escalation is likely before any resolution can be found, an angle that was later reiterated by the recently-ubiquitous Hu Xijin (China Global Daily editor-in-chief) on Twitter, who said that “China will certainly retaliate for barbaric suppression Huawei received. It’s a unanimous attitude of officials and ordinary people.” A Reuters article about China’s currency also received some attention, since the headline suggested that Chinese authorities won’t let the yuan depreciate beyond 7.0 per dollar. However, the details of the article were much less firmly stated. One source said that the PBoC would resist depreciation “in the immediate term” and another said that the currency would be allowed to weaken if supported by fundamentals. Overall, DB’s FX team saw no reason to change their bearish yuan view as a result. The yuan ended the week -1.44% weaker (-0.23% on Friday), taking its 2-week loss to -3.03% which is the sharpest two-week depreciation since the devaluation in August 2015 which caused shockwaves around the world.

Late in the NY afternoon on Friday, a CNBC headline broke saying that “US trade talks with China have stalled.” While that certainly was not “new news” to anyone, it nevertheless sparked a -0.52% drop in the S&P 500, driving almost the entire Friday drop of -0.58%. That sent the index -0.76% lower on the week even with a strong rebound in the middle 3 days of the week. The NASDAQ and DOW ended the week -1.27% and -0.69% (-1.04% and -0.38% Friday), respectively, as the more China-exposed tech sector continues to get hit. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index, many of whose constituents rely on Chinese customers (including Huawei), and could be impacted by new US barriers, fell -5.20% (-1.96% Friday). Chinese and EM equities fell as well last week, with the Shanghai Composite down -1.94% (-2.48% Friday) and the MSCI EM index -4.00% lower (-1.78% Friday).

In fixed income, treasuries, bunds, and gilts rallied by -7.5bps, -5.9bps, and -10.1bps, respectively for the 5 days. The front end rallied as well, but marginally less sharply, causing yield curves to flatten, though the US 2y10y curve remains in its recent range at 19.2bps. The 3m10y curve briefly inverted earlier in the week and ended the week -3.6bps flatter (+0.2bps Friday), but remained marginally in positive territory at +0.5bps. The dollar continued its advance against both domestic and emerging market currencies, with the dollar index up +0.68% (+0.14% Friday). The euro shed -0.67%, but the worst G10 performer was the British pound, which dipped -2.15% (-0.59% Friday) as Brexit talks continued to deteriorate. An index of EM currencies fell -1.26% (-0.42% Friday), with losses fairly widespread. The Mexican peso dropped -0.39% (-0.28% Friday), which was actually a healthy outperformance as the country reached an agreement with NAFTA partners to allow the US to remove its steel and aluminium tariffs ahead of the likely ratification of the USMCA. One other exception in the EM space was the Russian ruble, which gained +0.53% on the week (-0.19% Friday) as WTI oil gained +1.72% (-0.24% Friday).

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.69 POINTS OR 0.41%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 158.85 POINTS OR 0.57%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 53.64 POINTS OR 0.24%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.62%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9123 /Oil UP to 61.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9123 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9392 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

 

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

end

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

i)China/USA

China State Run Media Broadcasts Anti-American Movies To Millions Amid Deepening Trade War 

With the trade war between the US and China suddenly erupting after a 5-month ceasefire, CCTV 6, the movie channel of China’s leading state television broadcaster, aired three anti-American movies last week, reported What’s On Weibo.

The three movies are Korean war films: Heroic Sons and Daughters (1964), Battle on Shangganling Mountain (1954), and Surprise Attack (1960), which aired about one week after President Trump raised an existing 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25%.

All last week, anti-American propaganda flourished across the country, with the slogan “Wanna talk? Let’s talk. Wanna fight? Let’s do it. Wanna bully us? Dream on!” going viral on Chinese social media platforms.

CCTV 6 broadcasted the movies to 500 million people in 23 provinces. The films fall under a category called “Resist America, Help North Korea,” first debuting at the end of the Korean War (1950-1953).

The first movie is Battle on Shangganling Mountain, also translated as Battle of Shangganling. It depicts a group of Chinese soldiers who are fighting against American soldiers on Triangle Hill.

The second movie is Heroic Sons and Daughters tells the story of a political commissar in China’s Army runs into his lost son and daughter in North Korea during the Korean War. The movie shows how China and North Korea were battle buddies against the Americans.

The third movie is Surprise Attack revolves around a special operation by Chinese soldiers to blow up Kangping Bridge, severing American weapon supply chains and allowing the Chinese to attack.

CCTV changing its original programming to three anti-American films became a popular discussion over the weekend on Chinese social media, with many people across all provinces praising CCTV6 for showing these movies.

However, some Chinese said: “It seems that there are no new anti-American TV series or movies now, so they’ve come up with these old films to brainwash us.” Others said: “This kind of brainwashing is not useful.”

Weibo users appreciated these classic anti-American flicks, saying “They don’t make movies like this anymore,” and “It’s good for the younger generation to also see these classics.”

Embedded video

What’s on Weibo@WhatsOnWeibo

CCTV 6 has gone trending on Chinese social media today for changing its schedule and playing three anti-American movies for three days in a row, sending out a clear anti-US message while the trade war is heating up. Read: https://www.whatsonweibo.com/surprise-attack-cctv6-unexpectedly-airs-anti-american-movies-as-china-us-trade-war-intensifies/ 

China’s government broadcasting anti-American movies to hundreds of millions of its people shows how officials are starting up the propaganda machines ahead of a potential armed conflict with the US. Because no one wins in a trade war, tensions between both countries will continue to increase and could eventually lead to a shooting war in the South China Sea.

China is the major rising power challenging America’s global empire, this destructive pattern of structural stress is called Thucydides’s Trap. This phenomenon goes back to the Peloponnesian War that devastated ancient Greece, the historian Thucydides explained: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

History is playing out before our eyes, and war is inevitable if trade tensions continue to increase, this latest piece we share with our readers shows that China is starting to condition their citizens ahead of potential conflict, and just in case you thought that was ‘conspiracy theory’ fearmongery, here is China’s (un)official mouthpiece twitter voice confirming the war-conditioning just this morning…

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

Shangganling, and other old films about Korean War are rerun in China’s TV stations. Chinese troops’ win in the 1952 Battle of Shangganling boosted China’s position in negotiations with the US. Enlightenment from this film to Chinese:there’s no equal negotiation without fighting.

The message seems pretty clear: “Enlightenment from this film to Chinese:there’s no equal negotiation without fighting.

end

This would be deadly to the USA

(courtesy zerohedge)

Xi Sends Trump A Message: Rare-Earth Export Ban Is Coming

Back in April of 2018, when the trade war with China was still in its early stages, we explained that among the five “nuclear” options Beijing has to retaliate against the US, one was the block of rare-earth exports to the US, potentially crippling countless US supply chains that rely on these rare commodities, and forcing painful and costly delays in US production as alternative supply pathways had to be implemented.

As a result, for many months China watchers expected Beijing to respond to Trump’s tariff hikes by blocking the exports of one or more rare-earths, although fast forwarding one year later this still hasn’t happened. But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen, and overnight President Xi Jinping’s visit to a rare earths facility fueled speculation that the strategic materials will soon be weaponized in China’s tit-for-tat war the US.

As Bloomberg reported overnight, shares in JL MAG Rare-Earth surged by the daily limit on Monday after Xinhua said the Chinese president had stopped by the company in Jiangxi, a scripted move designed to telegraph what China could do next.

The reason for the dramatic market response is that the presidential visit flags policy priorities, and “rare earths have featured in the escalating trade spat between the U.S. and China.” Specifically, as Bloomberg notes, China raised tariffs to 25% from 10% on American imports, while the U.S. excluded rare earths from its own list of prospective tariffs on roughly $300 billion worth of Chinese goods to be targeted in the next wave of measures. And just in case the White House missed the message, Xi was accompanied on the trip to JL MAG by Liu He, the vice premier who has led the Chinese side in the trade negotiations.

Why does China have a clear advantage in this area? Simple: the U.S. relies on China, the dominant global supplier, for about 80% of its rare earths imports.

The visit “sends a warning signal to the U.S. that China may use rare earths as a retaliation measure as the trade war heats up,” said Pacific Securities analyst Yang Kunhe. That could include curbs on rare earth exports to the U.S., he said.

Xi’s visit came just hours after the Trump administration on  Friday blacklisted Huawei and threatened to cut it off from the U.S. software and semiconductors it needs to make its products. A spokesman for China’s foreign ministry told reporters Monday to “please wait and see” how the government and companies respond.

Of course, a Chinese export curb, or ban, would also cripple domestic producers, as domestic rare earth miners would be hurt, and likely need state subsidies, similar to US soybean farmers. But curbs could potentially help companies like JL MAG, which makes magnets containing rare earths that are used in products including electric vehicles and wind turbines.

Finally, to those looking to trade a potential rare-earth export ban, one place would be to go long the REMX rare earth ETF, which after hitting an all time high of $114 in 2011 during the first rare-earth “scare” during the China-Japan trade war, is trading some 90% lower as the market has all but discounted any possibility of a price spike.

Needless to say, should China lock out the US, the price of rare earths could soar orders of magnitude higher.

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

DEUTSCHE BANK

THE World’s largest derivative player has got some serious problems. It’s stock just hitan all time low after uBS cut its rating to sell. They are no doubt so off side with their derivatives!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Shares Hit All-Time Low After UBS Cuts Rating To Sell

With its hoped-for merger with Commerzbank in ruins, and the future of its investment bank uncertain, Deutsche Bank shares tumbled to a new all-time low on Monday after an analyst at UBS downgraded DB shares to a sell with a price target of €5.70 ($6.40) – that’s the second-lowest price target on Wall Street.

After Monday’s selloff, shares aren’t far from that level.

DB

UBS analysts led by Daniele Brupbacher wrote that operating conditions for Germany’s biggest lender are expected to remain “difficult” and its strategic options are “limited.” The bank remains vulnerable to “external events.”

They also cut EPS estimates for 2020 to 2022 by 25%, 18% and 12% respectively, based on lower revenue assumptions.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/SAUDI ARABIA

Insurers claim that most likely underwater drones were deployed in the attack in Saudi Arabia.

Iran Used Underwater Drones In Tanker Attacks, Insurer Claims

Investigators say last Sunday’s mysterious “sabotage” attack on four tankers which included two Saudi ships off Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates was highly likely” the work of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) deploying underwater attack drones

Specifically an IRGC surface vessel is believed to have launched the underwater drones packed with between 30 and 50kg of explosives which detonated on impact, according to a new report issued this week by the Norwegian Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks Insurance Association, known as DNK. Among the vessels hit were a Norwegian-flagged vessel as well as a UAE ship.

A new report by Reuterssummarized the Norwegian insurance investigators’ preliminary findings as based on analyzing shrapnel from the attacks which was “similar” to shrapnel recovered from surface drones used off Yemen by Iran-backed Houthi militia.

 

Illustrative image of underwater drone via the WSJ.

However, the insurance assessment seen by Reuters is “confidential” with an investigation still ongoing, and thus must be treated with skepticism.

Further, the evidence appears largely circumstantial at this point, with Iran’s guilt appearing to hinge on the assumption that shrapnel from Houthi operations and remnant material found at the port of Fujairah are from the same source.

Reuters lists the following summary points and “evidence” from the DNK assessment which allege the IRGC’s inolvement as follows:

  • A high likelihood that the IRGC had previously supplied its allies, the Houthi militia fighting a Saudi-backed government in Yemen, with explosive-laden surface drone boats capable of homing in on GPS navigational positions for accuracy.
  • The similarity of shrapnel found on the Norwegian tanker to shrapnel from drone boats used off Yemen by Houthis, even though the craft previously used by the Houthis were surface boats rather than the underwater drones likely to have been deployed in Fujairah.
  • The fact that Iran and particularly the IRGC had recently threatened to use military force and that, against a militarily stronger foe, they were highly likely to choose “asymmetric measures with plausible deniability”. DNK noted that the Fujairah attack had caused “relatively limited damage” and had been carried out at a time when U.S. Navy ships were still en route to the Gulf.

The attack location, so close to the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz – which the IRGC has previously threatened to close in order to strangle global oil shipping – was also a key factor in pointing to Iran’s guilt, according to the report.

The DNK noted the sabotage attacks occurred between six and 10 nautical miles off Fujairah, just off the vital and narrow strait. No boat was sunk, but the Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker Amjad and the UAE-flagged bunker vessel A.Michel had damage to their engine rooms.

 

Norwegian oil tanker Andrea Victory, one of the four tankers damaged in alleged underwater drone “sabotage attacks” early this week. Via the AFP

The insurance assessment lines up with Saudi and US accusations which came quickly on the heels of the bizarrely timed incident (following Bolton’s previously announced heightened “Iran threat” against US troops and allies in the region) that Iran orchestrated it to show its military has the power to disrupt global oil markets.

The WSJ had reported just a day after the alleged attack that according to an initial U.S. assessment, “Iran was likely behind the attack”on the four vessels, according to an anonymous US official. Iran for its part dismissed these and other accusations as part of psychological warfare” – according to one top Iranian parliamentarian and spokesman.

Meanwhile, we could actually be headed toward rapid de-escalation even as US warships continue to enter the Persian Gulf late this week, as multiple headlines Friday noted “Trump doesn’t want war” and appears to be clamping down on hawks in his own administration.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

With all of the Fake and Made Up News out there, Iran can have no idea what is actually going on!

And perhaps most interesting is that Trump tweeted something which actually lends credibility to Iran’s dismissing both the “sabotage” accusation and heightened bluster out of Washington over the past two weeks as a continuing Psyop, part of Bolton and Pompeo’s broader “maximum pressure” campaign.

Trump tweeted the following astounding statement on Friday“With all of the Fake and Made Up News out there, Iran can have no idea what is actually going on!”

 

END
TURKEY

Angry Erdogan Defies Trump: May Accelerate S-400 Delivery, Slams Western Meddling In Turkish Economy

Following several weeks of speculation (including what in retrospect was fake news from Bloomberg that “Turkey Weighs New U.S. Call to Delay Buying Russian Missiles“), in a televised speech in Istanbul late on Saturday, Bloomberg reported that Turkey’s executive president Erdogan invited yet another sharp gap down in the lira when trading resumes in a few hours, after he not only ruled out US demands that Turkey delay the purchase of an advanced Russian missile-defense system, but – assuring that Trump and NATO will be furious at Turkey’s regime – said he may bring forward the delivery date from July.

“It is definitely out of the question for us to step back on the issue of S-400s, it is a done deal,” Erdogan said “Our deal was to have the S-400s delivered to us by July; they will probably bring that forward.”

Erdogan’s defiance has not gone unnoticed and on Thursday, the lira slumped after Trump terminated a preferential trade agreement with Turkey in retaliation for Ankara’s stubborn support of the Russian deal; the latest escalation took place after the Trump admin last week asked Ankara to delay taking the system to 2020 although it is now clear that won’t happen.

In many ways Erdogan’s decision on whether to proceed with the Russian S-400 deal over a competitive deal offered by the US, involving Patriot missiles, is seen as a barometer of US superpower “standing” among frontier nations, those where there is a clash between Moscow and DC for future influence.

And even though pushing ahead with the deal carries the risk that renewed US sanctions that could plunge Turkey into renewed economic turmoil, slam the lira and accelerate the country’s surging inflation, the accord with Putin also highlights Turkey’s aspirations for an increasingly independent role in regional policies and, obviously, the mutual erosion of trust with Washington.

“The S-400 is a defensive system and has a long range. As for the payment plan, Russia has given us very suitable conditions,” Erdogan said, saying that Turkey has sent 100 engineers to Russia to help make the weapons. And just to make sure Trump is truly pissed off, Erdogan also vowed to continue future cooperation with Russian, saying that “after the S-400s, the S-500s are also considered and there will be co-production of S-500s as well.”

As reported on numerous prior occasions, the proposed purchase has anger ed Trump’s administration, which argues that integrating such a system into NATO’s second-largest army could help Moscow gather critical intelligence on the stealth capabilities of the next generation F-35 fighter planes, which Turkish manufacturers help build. Erdogan dismissed the U.S. argument and said Turkish military experts were good at deciding what to purchase.

To be sure, Trump’s retaliation has yet to be manifest; should the US presidentr wish to punish Turkey more, not only could Turkey be expelled from the Lockheed Martin F-35 program, but also face sanctions under two pieces of legislation: the Magnitsky Act and CAATSA, which allows the punishment of entities doing business with parts of the Russian state. As Bloomberg notes, a bipartisan group of eight senior U.S. House members introduced a resolution on Wednesday calling on Turkey to cancel the planned S-400 acquisition.

And speaking fo the F-35, Turkish companies were set to produce parts worth billions of dollars for the jet, with the air force planning to buy about 100 of the planes. However, as part of the escalating diplomatic feud, deliveries of F-35 equipment to Turkey have been suspended, although on Saturday, Erdogan downplayed the snag and said they will be eventually delivered: “Sooner or later, we will receive the F-35s as well as their parts. Inshallah, S-400s will arrive in our country, too.”

As a reminder, the Turkish economic crisis, and the plunge in the Turkish lira, accelerated last summer when the U.S. last sanctioned various members of the Turkish government over the arrest of an American preacher, while ramping up US sanctions on various Turkish exports, in the process slamming the local economy. The ensuing collapse in the value of the lira hastened the country’s first recession in a decade. The lira has been sliding for several weeks amid renewed tensions with the U.S. and a controversial decision to repeat a mayoral election in Istanbul in June after Erdogan’s party lost the previous vote.

In response to the growing threat of new US sanctions, Erdogan said, “It’s 2019. We’re not in 1974,” when the U.S. imposed a crippling arms embargo on Turkey after its military invaded northern Cyprus.

Turkey believes it has valuable bargaining chips, including an early-warning radar at Kurecik, a critical part of NATO’s ballistic-missile defense capabilities, and the Incirlik Air Base, close to Syria.

“There is a math of war and we’ve got to apply it well. We will take steps accordingly,” Erdogan said. “We’re just right now intensively giving necessary lessons in Syria” he said, referring to Turkish shelling of U.S.-backed Kurdish militants in northern Syria.

And speaking of the rerun of the Istanbul local elections, which Erdogan’s party lost at the end of March in a historic rebuke of the AKP party, and which investors have focused their attention on a sign of how far Erdogan is willing to go to preserve power, Reuters reported that on Saturday Erdogan also said the West was putting pressure on the Turkish lira, inflation and interest rates, but that these “games” would be thwarted after a re-run of Istanbul’s mayoral election in June.

“Ahead of the last election, the West tried to corner us by applying pressure on the currency, interest rates and inflation,” Erdogan said during Saturday’s televised Q&A session with university students in Istanbul.

“All these games will be thwarted once we get over the election,” he said, after Turkey’s election board ruled on a re-run of March’s election, which was won by the main opposition candidate in a shock loss for Erdogan’s party.

It is not quite clear how it is “the West’s” fault that the country’s FX reserves have collapsed in recent months prompting fears Turkey will be unable to fund the $82 billion in FX-denominated maturing debt in 2019…

… which is the main reason why the lira has continued to tumble, leading to an accelerated surge in inflation, while the country’s budget deficit has jumped sparking concerns that not only are Turkey’s capital and current accounts in jeopardy should Erdogan fail to restore confidence, but that the country’s government may soon run out of money for its domestic agenda. In fact, with every passing day, there are louder whispers that for those curious which currency will be the next Venezuela Bolivar, they should look no further than the Turkish currency.

END

Turkey Unleashes Soft Capital Controls On Retail Dollar Buyers

Just days after we exposed the possibility that Turkey is misrepresenting its dollar reserves (using swaps to inflate its levels), Bloomberg reports that the Erdogan administration has imposed soft capital controls on large retail dollar purchases to stem outflows.

The lira has been rallying all day amid chatter of heavy bank-buying (at the suggestion of authorities to support debt auctions), but as headlines hit about the capital controls, the lira began to slide.

Bloomberg reported that, in the latest sign of their increasingly interventionist approach to policy-making, Turkish authorities asked some of the nation’s primary dealers to support the government’s borrowing drive last week, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter.

And now banks should settle all retail transactions valued at $100,000 or higher one working day later, according to a document the banking regulator sent to lenders on Monday, which was seen by Bloomberg and verified by three bankers.

This is a major red flag suggesting that Turkey (and/or its banks) are running dry of dollars to stem the capital flight.

Which is a big problem as we noted previously:

“The bottom line is that they don’t have enough, whether it’s net or gross,” said Tim Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management.

“Everyone in the market knows that Turkey doesn’t have enough foreign currency reserves to mount a sustained and credible defence of the lira.”

The only question is when will the price of the lira, which at the current level of around 6.00 vs the dollar is wildly overvalued, start reflecting Turkey’s dismal situation.

EGYPT

Second Bomb Attack In Months Targets Tourists Near Egypt’s Pyramids

On Sunday a terror attack targeted a bus full of tourists near the Giza Pyramids outside the Egyptian capital of Cairo, officials said. The blast wounded at least 16 people, with no initial reports that anyone died in the explosion.

Egyptian authorities described the attack as due to a roadside bomb placed in a heavily trafficked area packed with tourists, thus it appeared another attempt to cripple Egypt’s vital tourism industry — the second to target foreign visitors to the pyramids in under six months.

 

Aftermath of Sunday’s attack near the pyramids, via The Times of Israel

Early reports suggest it was a relatively small explosive device, and photographs of the aftermath show the bus suffered impact damage, but is intact.

According to Bloomberg:

Some of the wounded were foreign nationals, according to Mohammed El-Saghir, head of police investigations in Giza’s al-Haram neighborhood. The blast occurred in front of a museum that’s under construction, and there was not immediate claim of responsibility.

In the hours following the number of wounded rose to 18, with police saying they’re attempting to track the source, which a number of reports have linked with Islamic militant groups which have long battled Egypt’s security services.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Oded Berkowitz@Oded121351

– Explosion reportedly targets foreign tourists’ bus near The Grand Egyptian Museum (north of the pyramid complex) in /. According to initial reports, 12 people were wounded.

Egypt’s tourism industry has shown signs of recovery of late, after the country went nearly two years without a significant incident against tourists.

However in December an explosion ripped through a tourist bus in Al-Haram area south of Cairo, which killed two and left a dozen injured, in what was the first such attack in two years.

Egypt’s tourism revenue in billions, via Trading Economics/Egyptian Ministry of Tourism:

Egyptian leaders have recently committed to making great strides to return tourism to levels before the so-called Arab Spring protests of 2011 brought general instability and the Muslim Brotherhood briefly into power, and after which mass counter-protests brought back the rule of the generals.

END

Rocket Fired Toward US Embassy In Central Baghdad, Blast Reported 

Moments ago a blast was reported in central Baghdad close to the fortified ‘Green Zone’ in the Iraqi capital. Several journalistic sources are saying the US embassy there has come under rocket attack, with regional Arabic media confirming a blast was heard in the vicinity of the embassy.

A BBC correspondent in the region, Ali Hashem, reports that “one Katyusha rocket was launched towards the US embassy in the Green Zone in Baghdad, no reports of casualties”.

 

Katyusha rocket, File Photo

Reuters has confirmed an emergency security incident unfolding:

Two Baghdad-based diplomatic sources also said they heard the blast close to the Iraqi capital’s fortified Green Zone which houses government buildings and foreign embassies.

The U.S. embassy in Baghdad and its consulate in the northern city of Erbil evacuated non-essential staff this week.

The Iraqi government has confirmed a rocket was fired toward the embassy, with no further attacks reported and no casualties, per Reuters:

A Katyusha rocket reportedly fell in central Baghdad’s Green Zone on Sunday night, Iraq military personnel announced.

“A Katyusha rocket fell in the middle of the Green Zone without causing any losses or causalties, further details will come later,” the military said in a statement.Earlier in the evening, a blast was heard in central Baghdad on Sunday night, with its cause and precise location unclear, Reuters witnesses said. Iraqi officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

Steven nabil

@thestevennabil

🛑This a major escalation, at 8:29 PM a rocket was launched toward the Green Zone and the vicinity of the U.S Embassy from (Jisr al Amana ) neighborhood in Baghdad.

Earlier last week the US State Department had ordered the evacuation of all non-emergency and non-essential personnel, citing intelligence that US troops and assets in the region were under immediate threat from Iran or its allied proxy forces in the region.

Joyce Karam

@Joyce_Karam

BREAKING: Katyusha shelling on Green Zone in Baghdad + blast in area near foreign embassies.

Comes 4 days after US pulled non-essential staff, amid tension w

سكاي نيوز عربية-عاجل

@SkyNewsArabia_B

مراسلنا: سقوط قذيفة كاتيوشا على المنطقة الخضراء وفقا لمصدر أمني عراقي

US forces in Iraq and the Persian Gulf have been on “high alert” since National Security Advisor John Bolton first announced new intelligence on May 5th claiming a heightened Iran threat that has put the US and its allies in the cross hairs in the Middle East.

The White House previously warned Iran the US will “respond swiftly and decisively” to any attacks by Tehran’s allies in Iraq against Americans.

developing…

END

US Alerts Airliners To “Misidentification” Risk If They Fly Over Persian Gulf

The United States has issued a formal warning to commercial airliners operating over the broader Gulf region of the risk of being “misidentified” as heightened US-Iran tensions and American warships are positioned in the Persian Gulf.

Embassies in the region reportedly relayed the message issued from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) highlighting the risk of travel in and over the region after a week that’s witnessed an alleged “sabotage” attack against four vessels near the vital Strait of Hormuz and threats and counter-threats hurled between Tehran and Washington.

 

File photo via Picture Alliance

Lloyd’s of London has also issued an alert over the increased risk to maritime shipping in the Persian Gulf area.

The FAA’s warning specifically said commercial airliners flying over the Persian Gulf could be targeted by “miscalculation or misidentification” even as the White House appeared to soften its tone late in the week.

“Although Iran likely has no intention to target civil aircraft, the presence of multiple long-range, advanced anti-aircraft-capable weapons in a tense environment poses a possible risk of miscalculation or misidentification, especially during periods of heightened political tension and rhetoric,” the warning said.

It also suggested the possibility than an aircraft’s navigation, communications, and electronic systems could be jammed “with little to no warning.” According to ABC News:

The order relayed Saturday by U.S. diplomats in Kuwait and the UAE came from an FAA Notice to Airmen published late Thursday in the U.S. It said that all commercial aircraft flying over the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman needed to be aware of Iran’s fighter jets and weaponry.

Iran dismissed the US warning as part of the continuing “psychological war against Iran.” Instead a spokesman did call attention to the region’s biggest civilian aviation tragedy in history, orchestrated not by Iran, but by the US Navy.

“There has never been a threat or risk to civilian air traffic in the Persian Gulf from Iran,” Iranian Mission to the UN mission spokesman Alireza Miryousefi told the AP. “One cannot forget the fact that it was indeed a U.S. warship that wantonly targeted an Iranian civilian passenger aircraft… The U.S. has yet to apologize for that act of terrorism against Iranian civilians.”

In 1988 Iran Air 655 was shot down over Iranian airspace by a reportedly trigger-happy US Navy.

He was referencing Iran Air Flight 655, which while carrying close to 300 people from Tehran to Dubai, was shot down on July 3, 1988 by the the USS Vincennes in the Persian Gulf in what the American commander said was a case of mistaken identity.

The Navy at the time said it mistook the commercial airliner for a Iranian F-14. All 290 people on board died, including over 60 children, in a tragedy which Iranians have never forgotten, but which much of the American public has likely never been informed about.

Thus the United States have the gall to warn against the threat Iran poses to civilian aviation safety is rich with appallingly blind and twisted irony, given the events of 1988.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

JOHN DEERE

John Deere Slashes Production Amid A 1980s Style Farm Crisis Collapse In Midwest 

With the entire US agriculture sector facing a 1980s style farm crisis downturn and record debt levels, demand for new tractors is set to collapse as farmers hang on to old Deere & Co. equipment, reported Bloomberg.

Heavy flooding in the last several months across the Midwest, a deepening trade war with China, depressed commodity prices, skyrocketing fuel costs, declining land values, and massive debt loads have squeezed farmers so much that Deere slashed production last week to deal with the downturn.

Deere executives on an earnings call last week warned that shipments of its tractors would decline by 20% YoY in 2H19.

“Until there’s some kind of stability on crop prices or a resolution on the trade front, farmers will continue to repair equipment as best they can or go to used markets,” said Chris Ciolino, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “When we do get stability, the replacement cycle will kick back into gear.”

Bruce Clark, a senior vice president at Moody’s Investors Service, said the farm crisis had shifted Deere’s credit rating to negative.

“Deere’s plans to reduce production in its core Ag business to levels below retail sales, which will strain sales but also control the field inventory, are characteristic of the company’s approach to contend with operating stress and cyclical downturns,” Clark said.

Executives told investors fundamentals will deteriorate in 2H19.

There could be widespread pain across the Midwest in 2H19. Over $76 billion of corn and soybeans are in storage, according to the Farm Bureau, as China slashes imports of grains from North America amid a deepening trade war.

Josh Jepsen, director of investor relations for Deere, said it’s too early “to say we’ve seen permanent shifts in production or market share globally” due to the trade disputes.

Matt Arnold, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co., said, farmers, replace tractors in cycles. Following three years of declines, Deere’s revenue growth turned positive in 2017. Arnold indicated the industry still has room to grow, which could last into the early 2020s.

“Investors are overly focused on the near-term downturn in the agriculture economy, while not appropriately pricing in Deere’s long-term growth opportunities,” Arnold said in a note Friday.

If trade disputes continue to escalate and no resolution is seen by 2H19, the replacement cycle for farmers could be several years out, likely to send Deere’s equity to the $100-80 range.

END

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA/RUSSIA

Russia Announces Delivery Of More Supplies To Venezuela’s Military

Even after repeat threats issued to Moscow from President Trump himself  including recently saying bluntly “Russia has to get out” — the Russian military now appears so unconcerned by such warnings that it’s simply announcing its Maduro support actions ahead of time via state media.

Russian news agency TASS said Friday, citing a military-diplomatic source, that Russia plans to supply Venezuela’s army with more than 16,000 field rations. This after a large Russian state-run arms exporter published a contract related to the re-supply deal.

 

In late March two Russian military planes landed outside Caracas and offloaded equipment and troops to assist the embattled Maduro regime, via the AFP

No doubt the very open publication of the supply deal is aimed at showing Washington that the Kremlin is not going anywhere in terms of its longtime military alliance with Caracas, which was controversially on full display last Decemberwhen Russian two nuclear-capable “Blackjack” strategic bombers flew to Caracas, and departed soon after amid White House threats and demands.

Russia also likely now feels emboldened given the embarrassing Guaido opposition led failed coup attempt launched but just as quickly fizzling out at the end of April.

The White House, especially through statements of John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave the full backing of the United States to the called for military uprising. Thus Moscow realizes the US simply doesn’t have leverage on the ground in Venezuela, and boldly announced the following late this week:

On Thursday, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s state-run arms exporter, placed information about purchases of 16,500 field rations to be supplied to Venezuela. The initial cost of the contract is 14.38 million rubles (222,091 US dollars).

“The rations will be supplied in the interests of the Venezuelan army,” the source said.

The rations are being dubbed “humanitarian assistance to the Venezuelan government” according to the report.

Though Venezuela has retreated from the headlines in recent days, and with Maduro in full control – reportedly hunting down the failed coup plotters – analysts fear the US and Russia are settling in for a protracted proxy war and “new Cold War” of sorts in Latin America.

Bolton had even invoked the throwback Monroe doctrine over fears that Russia and China were meddling in “America’s backyard” – to which Russia now clearly seems unfazed.

END

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1154 DOWN .0001 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.91 DOWN 0.060 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2738   DOWN   0.0009  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3484 UP .0023 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 1 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1168 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 11.69 POINTS OR 0.41% 

 

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 158.85 POINTS OR 0.57% 

 

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.62%// EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 51.64 POINTS OR 0.24% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 158.85 POINTS OR 0.57%

 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.69 POINTS OR 0.41% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.62% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 158.85  POINTS OR 0.57%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1278.30

silver:$14.45

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.39% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.82 DOWN 0  IN BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.97 DOWN 2 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.06%  DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.04%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.88% DOWN 3   IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.67 DOWN  1  POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 179 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.10%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.77% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1154  DOWN     .0001 or 1 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.91 UP .060 OR YEN DOWN 6  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2737 UP .0037 POUND DOWN 46  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 9 basis points to 1.3438

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9123    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9392  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.0183 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.04%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.42 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.84 UP 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.94  DOWN 6  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 37.74  0.51%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 197.55 POINTS OR 1.61%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 75.64 POINTS OR 1.46%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 80.40 POINTS or 0.87%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 565.41 POINTS OR 2.68%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 62.93 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 72.70 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    64.52  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.03 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 3 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.10 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  62.70

 

 

BRENT :  72.06

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.42…   VERY DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.84..VERY DEADLY/

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1168 ( UP 14   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.07 UP .038 (YEN DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.94 DOWN 6 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2726 UP 21  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.0237

 

the Russian rouble 64.52   UP 0.04 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 4 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3426 UP 21 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9123  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9397 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.10%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 84.10 POINTS OR 0.33%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN  113.91 POINTS OR 1.46%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.31 CLOSED UP 0.35

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.525%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.524

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

END

MARKET TRADING

 

end

ii)Market data/

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Plunges To 3-Year Lows

U.S. economic activity slumped in April, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The Chicago Fed national activity index, which draws on 85 economic indicators, was -0.45 in April versus an upwardly revised +0.05 in March (and expectations of -0.20).

  • 33 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions
  • 52 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made negative contributions

Smoothing the somewhat noisy indicator over the last three months, this is the weakest level of national economic activity since May 2016…

A reading below zero indicates below-trend-growth in the national economy and a sign of easing pressures on future inflation.

…more bad news is good news? More ammo for The Fed to stay lower for longer.

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Trump officially cancels 929 million dollars for California’s high speed rail project and now is deciding whether it wants all of the 3.5 billion dollars pledged for it. This will get the ire of Denmocrats in California.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Trump Cancels $929 Million For California’s High-Speed Rail Quagmire

The Trump administration has officially pulled a $929 million federal grant to the California High-Speed Rail Authority after terminating a 2010 agreement.

In a release, the Federal Railroad Association – a component of the US Department of Transportation – said that California’s rail authority “repeatedly failed to comply with the terms of the FY10 agreement and has failed to make reasonable progress on the project. Additionally, California has abandoned its original vision of a high-speed passenger rail service connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles, which was essential to its applications for FRA grant funding,” according to CNBC.

The FRA added that it “continues to consider all options regarding the return of $2.5 billion in American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds awarded to CHSRA.

President Trump in February called for California to return $3.5 billion in federal fundsgiven to the state for the failed high-speed rail line planned between San Francisco and Los Angeles. The $929 million in grant funds awarded to the state had not yet been paid out.

Trump’s call for the return of money followed Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom at his first state of the state address on Feb. 12 announcing a reeling in of the state’s high-speed rail project, saying the current plan “would cost too much and take too long.” He added, “There simply isn’t a path to get from Sacramento to San Diego, let alone from San Francisco to LA.” –CNBC

In a Thursday statement, Newsom said “The Trump administration’s action is illegal and a direct assault on California, our green infrastructure, and the thousands of Central Valley workers who are building this project,” adding “Just as we have seen from the Trump administration’s attacks on our clean air standards, our immigrant communities and in countless other areas, the Trump administration is trying to exact political retribution on our state. This is California’s money, appropriated by Congress, and we will vigorously defend it in court.”

While California canceled the bulk of the high-speed rail project, the state is continuing construction on a 119-mile section in the Central Valley in order to be able to legally keep federal funds for the project. Over $6 billion has already been spent on the project.

Back in 2008, California voters approved Proposition 1A, authorizing nearly $10 billion in bond money for the construction of the high-speed rail system. Since the vote, though, the project been plagued by delays and cost overruns. –CNBC

Last October, Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison panned the $77 billion project.

“Trains leave when you don’t want to leave, from a place you don’t want to leave from, and take you to a place you don’t want to go to, at a time you don’t want to get there, and then you have to get into a car and go wherever you’re going. It is a crazy system.

end

Farm Crisis: Suicides Spike In Rural America As Trade War Deepens

The deepening trade war between the US and China has roiled complex global supply chains and America’s Heartland. The latest breakdown in negotiations comes at a time when soybean exports to China have crashed, and huge stockpiles are building, have resulted in many farmers teetering on the verge of bankruptcy. Mounting financial stress in the Midwest has allowed a public health crisis, where suicide rates among farmers have hit record highs, according to one trade organization’s interview with the South China Morning Post.

Bill Gordon, a fourth-generation farmer in Worthington, Minnesota, who is also vice-president of the American Soybean Association, warned that spot prices for agriculture products have dropped so low, many in the Midwest can’t even service their debts or also pay their bills. Farmers are losing their land to creditors daily. This has triggered the suicide rate among farmers to jump in the last several years.

“The markets are so low, we cannot even break even to pay our bills. Farmers are losing their farms every day. The suicide rate among farmers is at an all-time high,” Gordon said.

“It is not up to us to tell the president how to negotiate, but a handout from the government is not how I want to run my business,” Gordon explained while talking about President Trump’s bailout of farmers and the possible use of the Commodity Credit Corp., a federal agency given authority during the Great Depression, to buy $15 billion worth of agricultural product from farmers.

“It took us 40 years to build these markets … and while no trade deal is perfect, for the most part the agriculture trade with China was on the up and up, or mutually beneficial,” he said.

Agricultural economist Scott Irwin, a professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, told the Post that farmers right now are losing $50 to $100 on corn and soybeans per acre. This excludes the government bailout, he said.

Irwin believes the Trump administration will hand out checks to farmers rather than using the Commodity Credit Corp. to buy physical crops.

“They are likely going to roll out that Market Facilitation Programme and probably expand it because Trump believes he has plenty of money to cover any checks he is going to write the farmers,” Irwin said.

“Every developed country in the world subsidizes its ag sector,” he said. “We have an over 80-year history of doing that here in the US. If it is socialism, it is not new socialism.”

Soybean futures fell 25% in 50 weeks since the inception of President Trump’s trade war early last summer.

CBOT Soybeans futures plunged to their lowest level in a decade as China on Monday said it would raise tariffs on $60 billion in US goods in retaliation for Trump’s decision last Friday to raise duties on $200 billion in Chinese products to 25% from 10%.

Gordon emphasized that farmers are looking to compete on a fair and level playing field, and don’t want government bailouts during a time when spot prices drop.

“What we want people to understand is that we don’t want people to think we are complaining because we are not becoming super profitable,” he said.

“Today, If I plant soybeans, I’m guaranteed to lose $65,000 on this planting. I have to find somewhere else that money just to get me back to zero.”

The trajectory on spot prices for soybeans is down despite several years of bumper crops in the Americas.

The 2019/20 farm crisis is a repeat of the 1980s crisis; farmers back then had heavy debt loads with high stockpiles. Once the US slapped the Soviet Union with trade embargos, crop exports to the country collapsed and triggered an agriculture recession in the Midwest. Very similar to today, Trump administration’s trade war forced China to respond with retaliatory tariffs on American soybeans, thus collapsing soybean exports to China by 80%. With the trade war deepening, financial stress in America’s Heartland will only increase, leading to a continuation of farmer suicides. The moral of the story: get government out of markets.

END

Despite “The Greatest Economy Ever,” 40% Of American Families Still Struggling 

With the economic expansion almost a decade old, the unemployment rate has fallen to five-decade lows, and real wage growth has modestly expanded.

President Trump has touted today’s economic environment as “the greatest economy ever,” despite a new study showing 40% of Americans struggle to afford housing, utilities, food and or health care.

The findings from the Urban Institute highlight the vast amounts of wealth inequality that has developed across the country since the Great Recession.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policies of the past ten years attempted to generate the wealth effect: by driving the valuations of stock, bonds, and real estate higher, so that people would feel wealthier.

However, 58% of people don’t own stocks, and another 35% don’t own real estate – which means many Americans didn’t fully participate in the sextupling of the stock market and the doubling of real estate prices.

Forty percent of Americans (ages 18 to 65) experienced two or more financial hardships in 2018, statistically the same from 2017. The study concentrated on the first two years of the Trump administration, as well as trying to understand if the debt-fuelled tax cuts would benefit the working class.

The study noted Trump’s economic policies hardly alleviated financial stresses experienced by middle/lower-class households last year.

“The modest declines in hardship during the current favorable economic environment suggest further progress will require additional policies to raise and stabilize incomes, offset the cost of essential expenses and protect families against adverse financial shocks,” the study said.

The Washington D.C.-based think tank surveyed more than 7,500 adults over the last several years about whether they had difficulties paying for housing, utilities, food or health care.

The difficulties encountered by households were related to stagnating personal incomes, the think tank said. “It is also important to consider the cost of major expenses such as housing, utilities, child care, transportation and health care” on household budgets, it noted.

About 20% of households had food insecurity and medical expense challenges over the last year.

Almost 33% of households that earned at least twice the federal poverty level (annual income of $50,200 for a family of four) warned they struggled with affording basic items. Households complained that medical and food costs were the most significant strains on their wallets. About 14% of households said they struggled with medical bills or couldn’t afford health insurance because of the surging cost.

The study said, families, earning less than twice the federal poverty level (annual income of $50,100 for a family of four) are enduring the most financial hardships today. Nearly 60% of those surveyed said they could hardly pay their bills, with 53% reporting more than half their income was spent on housing expenses.

So while the “greatest economy ever” could be true for the top 10% of households that own a majority of the financial assets, a large swath of households with limited to no assets have been left behind and are currently struggling to survive.

end

Fed Lie Of The Day: “Low Inflation Is One Of The Major Challenges Of Our Time”

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is preaching economic nonsense regarding inflation. His worry is the US becomes Japan.

Bloomberg reports Powell Aims to Dodge Japan Deflation Trap With Dovish Fed Tilt.

Declaring that too-low inflation was “one of the major challenges of our time,’’ Powell left open the possibility on Wednesday that the Fed’s next interest-rate move might be a cut after four increases last year.

The world’s most powerful monetary policy maker also sketched out a harmful scenario in which consumers and companies lose faith in the Fed’s ability to hit its 2 percent inflation target.

“If inflation expectations are below 2 percent, they’re always going to be pulling inflation down and we’re going to be paddling upstream’’ to keep prices up, he told reporters after the Fed unexpectedly scrapped its forecast of any rate hikes this year.

“I don’t feel we have kind of convincingly achieved our 2 percent mandate in a symmetric way,’’ Powell said after the Fed left its benchmark policy rate in a range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent.

Powell confessed that there is “no easy answer’’ to explain why price rises have been so subdued. Two possible reasons he cited were that the labor market might not be as tight as policy makers believe or inflation expectations might have slipped lower.

Absurd Discussion

The entire discussion is so absurd it’s hard to know where to start, but let’s start with a simple translation.

Powell: Inflation is one of the major challenges of our time.

Translation: One of the major problems of our time is your dollar is worth too much. The dollar buys too many good and services.

The Fed would be very pleased if your dollar was worth less and less each and every year.

Make no mistake. That is precisely what Powell is saying.

Easy Answers

The Fed has no easy answers as to why it cannot destroy the purchasing power of the dollar as much as he would like.

Since Powell does not know, I will tell you:

  1. Every central bank in the world is out to debase their currency.
  2. When central banks all do the same or similar things, not much happens. The market looks at deficits, budgets, overall debt, and interest rates and concludes the dollar is worth increasingly more than the Euro and Yen.
  3. A strong dollar holds down import prices counteracting some of the inflationary trends of excessive US deficit spending.

US Dollar Index

The dollar is up 21% since mid-2011.

You might agree or disagree whether or not that should be happening, but it is.

I suggest it’s warranted. The Fed is the only central that that was hiking. Then, just as the ECB was ready to taper asset purchases, which would have boosted the Euro, the ECB backed off.

The modest rise of the dollar in 2019 even counteracted some of Trump’s tariffs.

Phillips Curve

Why the Fed cannot figure out the obvious is not a mystery either.

The Fed places absurd faith in the discredited Phillips Curve which suggests there should be a wage price spiral in place.

Phillips Curve Curiosities

  1. Fed Study Shows Phillips Curve Is Useless: Admitting the Obvious
  2. Yet Another Fed Study Concludes Phillip’s Curve is Nonsense
  3. Economic Stupidity and Fed Groupthink Remain “Well-Anchored”

Despite numerous studies proving the Phillips Curve is nonsense, including two by the Fed, the Fed governors have not abandoned the idea.

Also consider Rethinking the Fed’s 2% Inflation Target: Spotlight On an Absurd Debate.

Hello Jerome Powell

Powell cited “inflation expectations” as the second possible reason for lack of inflation.

That notion is equally absurd, if not even more absurd.

I addressed inflation expectations in Hello Jerome Powell, We Have Questions.

If you have not done so, or if you need a refresher course, please give that a look.

The bottom line is the Fed has three bad economic models: regarding Deflation Group-Think, Inflation Expectations, and the​Phillips Curve.

I sent my question list to the Fed. They did not respond or even acknowledge my email.

With three bad economic models, it is no wonder the Fed is puzzled.

By the way, there is plenty of inflation, in assets, but the Fed doesn’t count that. But as part of its asymmetric policy, the Fed is guaranteed to respond to a sinking stock market.

SWAMP STORIES

Barr Poleaxes Pelosi In Friday Interview: ‘Dems Trying To Discredit Me Ahead Of FBI Review’

Attorney General William Barr brushed off efforts by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and other Democrats to discredit him, claiming that they might be “concerned about the outcome of a review.”

In a wide-ranging interview from El Salvador with Fox News’ Bill Hemmer, Barr said that accusations that he lied under oath are “laughable,” and that Democrats are scrambling ahead of the outcome of his review of FBI/DOJ conduct surrounding the 2016 US election.

On May 2, Pelosi accused Barr of lying under oath – saying “The attorney general of the United States did not tell the truth to the Congress. That’s a crime.”

Barr ribbed Pelosi during a Wednesday sideline at a Capitol Hill event – asking the House Speaker if she had “Madam Speaker, did you bring your handcuffs?” according to a source who witnessed the conversation.

Pelosi smiled, and replied that “the House Sergeant at Arms was present at the ceremony should an arrest be necessary.”

Steele Dossier and “Strange developments” after the 2016 election

Hemmer: “Can you tell us what the Steele dossier had to do with it? What role did that play?”

Barr: “That’s one of the questions we’re going to have to do that. It’s a very unusual situation to have opposition research like that – especially one that on its face had a number of clear mistakes and a somewhat jejue analysis. And to use that to conduct counterintelligence against the American political campaign would be a strange development.

Hemmer: “Do you smell a rat in this at this point?”

Barr: “I would just say that the answers I’m getting are not sufficient.

Barr was then asked about the period after the election. 

Hemmer: “In the period of time between election day and the inauguration, did anyone in government or in intelligence, did they take action to justify their decisions?”

Barr: “I think there were some very strange developments during that period. That’s one of the things we want to look into.”

Hemmer: “Such as?”

“Such as the handling of the media on January 6, between the Intelligence chiefs and the President, and the leaking of information subsequent to that meeting,” referring to former FBI Director James Comey’s decision to brief President Trump on the Steele Dossier – which gave CNN and BuzzFeed justification to publish and report on it.

Barr also says he doesn’t blame Trump for calling the investigation a “witch hunt,” and defended the White House’s cooperation with the Mueller probe by providing “millions” of pages of information – finding it “more than satisfactory.”

end

SWAMP STORIES/KEY STORIES/KING REPORT

(COURTESY OF CHRIS POWELL OF GATA)

On Friday, China Downplays Chances for Trade Talks While U.S. Plays ‘Little Tricks’

  • State media says U.S.’s ‘little tricks’ disrupt atmosphere
  • Economic planning agency says ready to add stimulus if needed

    China’s state media signaled a lack of interest in resuming trade talks with the U.S. under the current threat of higher tariffs, while the government said stimulus will be stepped up to buttress the domestic economy.  Without new moves that show the U.S. is sincere, it is meaningless for its officials to come to China and have trade talks, according to a commentary by the blog Taoran Notes… The Ministry of Commerce spokesman said Thursday he had no information about any U.S. officials coming to Beijing for further talks…   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-17/china-not-interested-in-talking-with-u-s-for-now-state-media

After China state media warned that China has no interest in resuming trade talks with the US, ESMs declined and Bitcoin, largely a China play, crashed.

Bitcoin prices plummeted more than $600 less than a day after the world’s largest cryptocurrency traded at levels above $8,000https://cnb.cx/2VINcnh

Like the sun rise following the night, Team Trump surfaced before the NYSE open to prop up the US stock market with some intervention.

Trump delays [EU, Japan] auto tariffs for 180 days [to negotiate a deal

@HuXijin_GT: Trump delays EU, Japan auto tariffs for 6 months since there’s little chance of reaching a China-US trade deal in 6 months. The two sides have serious differences with worsening political atmosphere.Negotiation terms have been laid bare to the public, making compromise difficult

@ukarlewitz: Over the last 10 days, SPY has lost a total of -2.8% but it has lost -6.6% overnightCash hours, it has gained +3.8%

In a huge shock, Australian PM Scott Morrison’s governing Conservative coalition beat the Labor Party. Polls showed Labor with an 8-point lead.  After Morrison’s unexpected win, the media lamented that ‘polls should never be trusted again’.  Morrison ran a Trump-like campaign: emphasize on the economy and halting immigration.  Labor’s Bill Shorten ran on climate change and tax fairness.

 

“Labor used to be party for the workers, now it’s a party for people who don’t work,” one said…

https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/scott-morrison-clinches-unlikely-victory-over-bill-shorten-in-bombshell-election-result/news-story/c5cc6418729e21fc01e0f7e442771300

 

Apparently Iran-back forces fired a Katusha rocket that landed near the US Embassy in Baghdad.

Trump: If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran. Never threaten the United States again!

On Thursday night, AG Bill Barr granted interviews to FOX News and the WSJ.  Barr effectively warned Dems and the MSM that he will not suffer their slander quietly.  The AG is preparing the nation as well as foreign and domestic conspirators for what is coming (Reportedly, Horowitz’s Report is finished).

 

The Horowitz IG report is now in staff review and is being briefed to principals – OANN

 

@ProfMJCleveland: With rumors swirling that OIG report near release, important to remember OIG is but ONE aspect of the investigation AND in fact has “handicapped” Barr’s separate investigation! So once OIG is done, Barr will be freed up.

 

Barr WSJ interview

  • “Government power was used to spy on American citizens.”
  • “Just like we need to ensure that foreign actors don’t influence the outcome of our elections, we need to ensure that the government doesn’t use its powers to put a thumb on the scale.”
  • His review of the origins of the Russia investigation is focused on U.S. intelligence gathering before the Federal Bureau of Investigation opened its formal inquiry in July 2016.
  • Could lead to DoJ rule changes for counterintelligence investigations of political campaigns

 

Barr interview with Fox News

  • It’s a very unusual situation to have opposition research like that, especially one that on its face had a number of clear mistakes… To use that to conduct counterintelligence against an American political campaign is strange.”
  • I’ve been trying to get answers to the questions and I’ve found that a lot of the answers have been inadequate and some of the explanations I’ve gotten don’t hang together, in a sense I have more questions today than when I first started.”
  • This was handled at a very senior level at these departments. And not the ordinary way. It was sort of an ad hoc small group. And most of these people are no longer with the FBI or CIA or the other agencies involved.”
  • On Pelosi and Dems’ charges that he lied: “It’s a laughable charge and I think it’s largely being made to try to discredit me partly because they may be concerned about the outcome of a review of what happened during the election.”
  • “I thought I was in a position where this kind of criticism really wouldn’t bother me very much.”
  • On contempt charge recommendation passed by the Democratic-led House Judiciary Committee: “It’s part of the usual political circus that’s being played out. It doesn’t surprise me.”

https://hannity.com/media-room/barr-begins-the-attorney-general-slams-clear-mistakes-in-steele-dossier-says-fbis-use-strange/

 

Barr made two salient points: There were some “very strange developments” between Election Day and Inauguration Day that will be investigated.   That’s one of the things we want to look into… the handling of the [dossier] meeting on Jan. 6, 2017 between the intelligence chiefs and the president and the leaking of information subsequent to that meeting.”  This is the day that the coup officially began.

 

Ex-FBI General Counsel Jim Baker, still on a media tour, is now trying to disavow the ‘dossier’ even though he allegedly signed off on using it for a FISA warrant.

 

“It was more information that we viewed, that I viewed, skeptically from the outset, and I was concerned about it and had a jaundiced eye, or looked at it with a jaundiced eye right from the outset,” Baker told MSNBC’s Chuck Todd… When asked whether the dossier was used for other FISA warrants, Baker dodged the question.  “I don’t think I should comment on that, I’m not sure what else the government has confirmed,” he said.  “I don’t want to confirm or deny anything about other potential FISA applications.”

https://dailycaller.com/2019/05/18/james-baker-steele-dossier-fbi/

 

Ex-SDNY Atty McCarthy: The Steele Dossier and the ‘VERIFIED APPLICATION’ That Wasn’t

Former officials are fighting over who deserves blame.

   Why? Because the dossier — a Clinton-campaign opposition-research screed, based on anonymous Russian sources peddling farcical hearsay, compiled by a well-paid foreign operative (former British spy Christopher Steele) — is crumbling by the day…

    There is good reason to believe Brennan, though he has tried to distance himself from the dossier, pushed it on congressional leaders in the late summer of 2016 — at around the same time Steele and his Fusion GPS collaborators were pushing it on select media outlets, hoping it would blow a Moscow-size hole in the Trump campaign…

    It appears that Clapper is up to his eyeballs in discussions about the dossier with CNN shortly before CNN reported that Trump had been briefed on it… Even if former director Comey is right that it was Brennan, not he, who was trying to slide the dossier into the ICA, Comey’s FBI still used it in the FISC. Plus, Comey himself did agree to brief Trump on it…

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/the-steele-dossier-and-the-verified-application-that-wasnt/

 

@AndrewCMcCarthy: I wouldn’t make this about the Woods Procedure. It’s basic: Steele was not the SOURCE; he was the ACCUMULATOR/PURVEYOR of the info, like a case agent. You can’t get a warrant on the case agent’s credibilityyou’re supposed to give court reasons to rely on actual sources.

 

BTW, some language in the FISA applications reportedly is identical to passages in the ‘dossier’.  Here is one instance: “future bilateral energy cooperation and prospects for an associated move to lift Ukraine-related western sanctions against Russia.”

 

Federal Judge Sullivan on Thursday night ordered the DoJ to post, by May 31, unredacted passages of the Mueller Report pertaining to Gen. Flynn as well as all transcripts of conversations that were surveilled, including but limited to conversations with Russian Amb Kislyak.  Sullivan has delayed sentencing Flynn for over one year.  It appears that Sullivan wants the public to know what was done to Flynn before he issues the sentence – or a reprieve.

 

Trump: It now seems the General Flynn was under investigation long before was common knowledge. It would have been impossible for me to know this but, if that was the case, and with me being one of two people who would become president, why was I not told so that I could make a change?

    New Fox Poll: 58% of people say that the FBI broke the law in investigating Donald J. Trump

 

Trump is alluding to new documents that show spying on Flynn commenced before the transition.

 

On Saturday, James Comey slammed Barr on Twitter.  By Mueller/Weissmann standards, this could be obstruction of justice.  Mueller’s Report cited Trump’s tweets as potential obstruction.

 

@Comey: The AG should stop sliming his own Department.  If there are bad facts, show us, or search for them professionally and then tell us what you found.  An AG must act like the leader of the Department of Justice, an organization based on truth. Donald Trump has enough spokespeople.

 

Despite the opprobrium & mocking over touching, Biden did it again – and the woman was not pleased!

https://starpolitical.com/mr-touchy-feely-gets-put-in-his-place-at-philadelphia-campaign-event/

 

We will refrain from mentioning the tawdry story about Biden’s son that appeared on Friday.

 

Pompeo slams Kerry over meeting with Iranians, undermining Trump administration: ‘It’s time to get off the stage’   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pompeo-kerry-meeting-iranians-get-off-the-stage

end

WILL SEE YOU TUESDAY NIGHT

I AM PROVIDING A LITTLE ADVANCE WARNING THAT ON MAY 23.2019 I WILL NOT PROVIDE A FULL COMMENTARY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE EVENING I WILL PROVIDE ONLY THE COMEX DATA
AND SOME MORNING DATA.

 

 

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