US equity futures, European stocks the the euro all fell on Tuesday as renewed concern about a fresh clash between Italy’s and Europe over the country’s budget overshadowed talks of a Fiat-Chrysler and Renault merger and EU parliamentary elections which failed to result in a worst-case scenario.

After gains in Asia, hopes that European stocks would open higher were dashed, with Italian shares falling more than half a percent, unwinding early gains in both the STOXX 600 and Germany’s DAX, as Italy’s dispute with the European Commission emerged to dominate European trading as markets opened. The Commission could fine Italy 3 billion euros for accumulating debt and deficits that break EU rules, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said on Tuesday. 

“It reopens the whole agenda of whether Salvini wants to be part of the euro or not,” said Colin Harte, a portfolio manager and strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “The danger is that the [dispute between Salvini and the EU] turns out to be more aggressive on both sides, then you will see people switch out of positions],” Harte said.

Renewed focus on Italy means that the spread between Italian and German 10-year debt, which reached around 100 bps between mid-October and mid-March, has blown out to 285 basis points. And as Italian 10Y yield slumped, Italian bank stocks have tumbled to 2018 lows, although on Tuesday they trimmed some losses after European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said he didn’t favor sanctions for the country.

German government bond yields, deemed the region’s safest asset, fell four basis points to a two-and-a-half-year low. The euro weakened 0.11% against the dollar.

Meanwhile, the ongoing trade war between the US and China found no respite over the long weekend, with Trump saying on Monday that Washington was not ready to make a deal with China, but he expected one in the future. At the same time, he pressed Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to reduce Japan’s trade imbalance with the United States. The US president also warned that American tariffs on goods from China “could go up very, very substantially, very easily,” while over the weekend the Asian nation pushed back at the perception that the levies were hurting its economy. Escalating trade tensions have sent sovereign bonds higher and pushed global stocks toward their first monthly decline of 2019.  In the US, 10Y Treasury Yields tumbled to 2.271%, the lowest level since October 2017 suggesting an accelerating flight to safety.

Hope for a US-China trade deal still underpins optimism in global markets, but ES futures were down almost 0.25%, taking out Monday’s holiday lows. “Markets are holding their nerve and will start to attach great hope to the meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump in June,” said BNP Paribas’s Harte. “But I’m not as convinced that Trump wants a deal. The big risk is that the U.S. starts being disruptive to supply chains … and the big problem is we don’t really understand how much damage this will do.”

“The Sino-U.S. tensions continue to weigh on equity markets,” said State Street strategist Benjamin Jones. “Thus far, there seems to be little sign of an easing in those pressures on either side of the fence.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced for a third day, lifted by advances in China and gains by auto firms after Fiat Chrysler made a “transformative merger” proposal to French peer Renault. Auto stocks rose globally after Fiat Chrysler confirmed it had made proposed a merger with Renault, a deal that would create the world’s third-biggest carmaker. The rally spilled into Asia with Mitsubishi Motors in Japan adding 5.95% and Nissan Motor Co gaining 2.31%.

Otherwise, Asian markets were mixed, with China and Australia rising and Indonesia retreating. Japan’s Topix gauge climbed 0.3%, driven by Toyota Motor and Hitachi. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.6% higher, with Foshan Haitian Flavouring and SAIC Motor offering the biggest boosts. A planned increase in the weighting of Chinese A-shares in MSCI indexes after the market closes on Tuesday also boosted shares.

In FX, the dollar index which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.15% higher at 97.747. The pound whipsawed on two-way flows as traders focused on the race for the next U.K. Prime Minister, while the euro slipped alongside Italian banks and bonds amid concerns of a renewed budget spat with the EU. The yen led gains among G-10 currencies.

The Yuan was largely unchanged after PBoC Governor Yi Gang said he is confident that China can keep the Yuan “basically stable”; the benchmark deposit rate will continue to play a important role in the promotion of market-based interest rate reform; the current benchmark lending and deposit rate is at an appropriate level. And the Chinese – US 10yr yield gap is within a relatively comfortable range. Separately, reported that the PBoC are to increase counter cyclical adjustments, Deputy Chief reiterates they are to maintain a prudent monetary policy.

In commodities, West Texas crude oil nudged above $59 a barrel. Oil prices extended gains after rising more than 1% on Monday, with prices rising on tensions in the Middle East and continuing Russian supply disruptions after a contamination problem discovered last month. Brent crude was 0.29% higher at $70.31 per barrel, having earlier dipped below the $70 mark. WTI crude gained 1.16% to $59.31 per barrel.

Economic data include S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home prices, Dallas Fed manufacturing and consumer confidence. Workday and Bank of Nova Scotia are due to report earnings.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,826.25
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 375.17
• MXAP up 0.3% to 153.81
• MXAPJ up 0.1% to 500.30
• Nikkei up 0.4% to 21,260.14
• Topix up 0.3% to 1,550.99
• Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 27,390.81
• Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 2,909.91
• Sensex down 0.2% to 39,618.71
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,484.84
• Kospi up 0.2% to 2,048.83
• German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to -0.159%
• Euro down 0.04% to $1.1189
• Brent Futures up 0.01% to $70.12/bbl
• Italian 10Y yield rose 12.1 bps to 2.304%
• Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 0.79%
• Brent Futures up 0.04% to $70.15/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.07% to $1,284.49
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.75

Top Headlines from Bloomberg

• The Chinese government’s first seizure of a bank in more than two decades reverberated through markets for a second day, driving up funding costs for smaller lenders and adding pressure to shares that already trade at rock-bottom valuations
• Italian bonds declined and yields jumped for a second day as investors faced the prospect of a new budget standoff between the nation and the EU after the region’s elections strengthened the hand of Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini. The bonds pared losses after EU Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici played down talk of sanctions
• Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn grudgingly promised to support a referendum on any Brexit deal after his party sank to just 14% of the vote in the European election. Leading Conservatives competing to replace Theresa May as prime minister said their party’s near wipe-out in the poll showed voters wanted them to get on and leave the EU
• French President Emmanuel Macron will push chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier as his choice to lead the European Commission, as leaders meet Tuesday in Brussels to begin the jostling to fill the bloc’s leadership spots. Italy will seek a seat on the European Central Bank’s Executive Board, according to a senior lawmaker in the coalition government
• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is considering raising $20 billion via a second listing in Hong Kong after a record-breaking 2014 New York debut. The mega-deal will bring China’s largest company closer to investors at home as U.S. tensions escalate
• Euro-area economic confidence unexpectedly improved in May, snapping an almost yearlong streak of declines when the region was battling through a host of struggles

Asian equity markets were mostly higher but with gains capped as trade slowly picked up from the holiday lull in the US and UK. ASX 200 (+0.5%) was positive with the gains led by the tech sector and as miners cheered the recent upside in commodities including Chinese benchmark iron ore prices which hit record highs. Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) was underpinned by corporate news flow with Tokyo Electron lifted from a JPY 150bln buyback, while Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors gained following the recent merger proposal between alliance partner Renault and Fiat. Hang Seng (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) gained following a substantial liquidity injection of CNY 150bln by the PBoC which placed the ongoing trade uncertainty on the back seat. 10yr JGBs were steady as they mirrored the sideways trade in T-note futures although saw mild support following the results from the 40yr JGB auction where the b/c was firmer than previous and as 40yr yields hit their lowest levels since September 2016.

Top Asian News

• China’s First Bank Seizure in 20 Years Spooks Investors
• Nomura Penalized by Regulator After Market Information Leaked
• India Has Political Space to Do Difficult Tasks to Spur Economy
• China Stock Surge Can Repeat as MSCI Boosts Weighting

A downbeat session thus far for European equities [Eurostoxx 50 -0.6%] as the region failed to capitalise on the positive momentum seen in Asia. Most major European bourses are experiencing broad-based losses although Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.9%) underperforms as banking names are weighed on by the decline in BTPs, whilst the UK’s FTSE (Unch) is supported by heavyweight mining names (Rio Tinto +3.2%, BHP +1.8%, Antofagasta +2.2%) profiting from the surge in iron ore price. Thus, the sector is outperforming whilst most of the other sectors are posting broad-based losses. In terms of individual movers, Renault (+0.7%) shares are higher in a continuation of yesterday’s rise due to a potential Renault-Fiat Chrysler merger. Richemont (-0.6%) and Swatch (-0.8%) are subdued amid a Swiss watch export decline of 0.4% Y/Y. Finally, Thyssenkrupp (+3.2%) rose to the top of the DAX amid a rise in steel prices. In terms of some analysis from Nomura Quant, amongst major hedge funds, macro funds are tilting short equities, with overall sentiment on US-China trade discussions on a gradual downtrend. Whilst some short-lived rallies may yet come, little optimism is seen on the immediate horizon, and it is unlikely hedge funds and CTAs will be convinced to return to buying. “It also looks likely to us that CTAs will go back to closing out long positions in NASDAQ 100 futures and S&P 500 futures starting today” says Nomura.

Top European News

• Italy Risks $4 Billion EU Penalty Over Failure to Rein in Debt
• Italy Seeks ECB Board Seat as League Urges ‘Infrastructure QE’
• Swiss Economy Bounces Back With Growth Surge at Start of 2019
• Turkish Stocks Rally as Country Hints at Russian Missile Delay

In FX, the dollar remains off recent key day reversal or retracement lows, but the DXY is still struggling to regain sufficient momentum for an attempt to revisit 98.000 and 2019 peaks reached only last Thursday (98.373). However, in a twist to normal month end trends, equity rebalancing flows may be Dollar supportive this week as at least one preliminary model is signalling a net buy, and especially strong against Sterling vs relatively weak demand against the Yen.

• JPY/NOK/SEK – The clear G10 outperformers as Usd/Jpy retreats from 109.50+ highs to test support ahead of 109.00 at a 109.23 Fib amidst a broad downturn in risk sentiment, while the Scandi Crowns continue to derive encouragement from last week’s stellar unemployment developments rather than less upbeat sentiment indicators today. Indeed, Eur/Nok has had a look at 9.2000 ahead of a key downside technical level in the form of the 100 DMA (9.7190), with extra impetus from higher Norwegian oil investment forecasts, while Eur/Sek is back below 10.7000 and has been under 10.6750.
• NZD/AUD – The next best majors as the Kiwi holds above 0.6500 vs its US counterpart awaiting the latest RBNZ Financial Stability Report due tomorrow and the Aussie maintains 0.6900+ status ahead of next week’s RBA policy meeting with a 25 bp rate cut all but totally priced in. On that note, Aud/Usd may well be capped by macro offers
• CAD/GBP/CHF – All slightly softer vs the Greenback, as the Loonie pivots 1.3450 and trades cautiously into Wednesday’s BoC (full preview available on the Ransquawk Research Suite), while the Pound hovers closer to the base of a 1.2700-1.2655 range in the fall-out from last week’s formal notice of resignation from UK PM May and the weekend EU Parliamentary elections, and with the aforementioned end of May Cable signals hardly helping. In similar vein, the Franc has not been able to glean much, if any traction from much stronger than forecast Swiss GDP, as the Government was quick to caution that one-off factors impacted favourably in Q1 and it would not be raising its full year growth forecast on the back of a bumper first quarter, while April’s trade surplus was smaller than expected. Usd/Chf is firmly above recent lows within a tight 1.0050-35 band and Eur/Chf is also looking more solid on the 1.1200 handle between 1.1245-25 vs sub-big figure levels last week.
• EUR – As noted above, the single currency has rebounded off worst levels vs the Franc despite the return of Italian/EU fiscal tensions, and the Euro is also displaying a degree of resilience against the Dollar within 1.1176-1.1200 trading parameters, albeit not convincingly through 30 DMA resistance (1.1196) or beyond 1.1200 to challenge a Fib at 1.1215.
• EM – Another marginal move up in the Usd/Cny fix overnight still leaves the spread to Usd/Cnh on a wider trajectory, but the former could be set higher in wake of the PBoC’s move to raise its counter cyclical ‘adjustments’. Elsewhere, the Try has finally reaped some benefit from Monday’s CBRT hike in the RRR, but Turkey is still embroiled in geopolitical and diplomatic conflicts that could see the Lira lurch again.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures have been relatively resilient to the risk aversion around the market with the former hovering above USD 59/bbl and the latter around USD 70.50/bbl. Of note, there was no WTI settlement yesterday and thus there is a deviation in price change between the two benchmarks. Nevertheless, WTI’s discount to Brent has been gaining more focus, with the WTI/Brent Arb now almost USD -11/bbl. The widening spread is attributed to US stockpiles building keeping WTI subdued, whilst Brent is supported by the Russian oil contamination. Analysts at RBC highlight that physical markets are tight, and inventories are piling up despite the backwardated term structure. “We do not interpret the recent increases as entirely bearish given that the majority of builds from the US to consuming Asia have been deliberate and tactical which has, in turn, kept markets tight” RBC says. Meanwhile, gold (Unch) is flat on the day, but the yellow metal nursed some of its overnight losses as the risk tone deteriorated further, from a technical perspective; immediate levels to the upside include the 50 DMA at 1288.12/oz ahead of the psychological 1290/oz.  Elsewhere, copper remains lacklustre amid the downbeat risk tone, as prices fluctuate on either side of USD 2.70/lb. Finally, Dalian iron ore prices spiked to record highs amid ongoing supply concerns and with stockpiles around 2yr lows.

US Event Calendar

• 9am: House Price Purchase Index QoQ, prior 1.1%
• 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
• 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20- City MoM SA, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2%; YoY NSA, est. 2.55%, prior 3.0%
• 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 130, prior 129.2
• 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 5.8, prior 2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

By the time you read this I’ll have just taken off for a work trip to Madrid precisely 4 days too early given this weekend’s Champions League final in this city. Unless I find a ticket lying on the floor whilst walking the streets I won’t be going on Saturday. Instead it’s nice to get away after a hard bank holiday weekend. My last google search of the long weekend was “are there pre-schools or nurseries that offer boarding?”. The twins are hard work and into everything but at least they seem to get into trouble together as they follow each other around everywhere. However 3.75 year old Maisie is so demanding. The long weekend basically involved her jumping all over me (often at speed), asking to be spun round all the time (often at speed), to be pushed on the swings (again at speed) and then clinging onto my leg or jumping on my back whenever I tried to do something else. I’m exhausted. To the younger readers please don’t have children in your 40s or beyond. You’ll be exhausted!!!

While I was being beaten up yesterday it was all about Europe with the US and UK on hols.Markets held up relatively well but there was lots to digest in terms of the European Parliament elections and also fresh worries about Italy/EU tensions. The main market highlight of the day was seeing 10yr BTPs rise 12bps to 2.67% while 10yr Bunds fell -2.8bps to -0.147% – the lowest for 3 years and only around 4bps off the all time closing lows. The EP elections in Italy were pretty much in line with forecasts but it was news from Bloomberg that the EU commission is considering a €3.5bn fine for Italy due to their ongoing debt issues that encouraged the bulk of the sell-off. The EU have a regular budgetary meeting next week and there was talk in the article that the next steps towards a fine could come at this meeting. The FTSE-MIB earlier greeted news that Salvini had extended his power base (34% vote vs. 17% in 2018 – with the M5S at 17% down from 33% in 2018) positively and was c.+1.5% just after the open. However it fell after the fine story and closed -0.06% lower with the Stoxx +0.22% as autos climbed after Fiat Chrysler’s proposed merger with Renault was announced over the weekend. Back to Italy and from listening to Salvini talk post elections it doesn’t seem he’s prepared to back down on his views and said taxes won’t be raised and that the EU has to listen to voters. He seems emboldened by a firmer mandate post the EP elections. Interesting times ahead for Italy vs the EU.

For DB’s take on the European wide elections see the piece here from Kevin Koerner. The results were broadly inline with expectations. Populists and anti-establishment parties are continuing to build support without landing knock-out blows. As Kevin writes, “the “grand coalition” of conservatives (EPP) and social democrats (S&D) has lost its traditional absolute majority in the next European Parliament. Together with the liberals and greens, pro-European groups will still hold a clear majority of two-thirds of the seats in the next EP. But policymaking for them will likely become more complex and require broader cross-party agreements and discipline.” A lot depends on the alliances formed over the next few weeks and months. As for the UK, the Brexit party – which is weeks old – stormed the polls with nearly 32%. The second referendum backing Liberals were second with around 20%. Labour were third with c.14%, the Greens fourth were c.12% with the ruling Tories in a shockingly bad 5th at c.9%. What it basically shows is that the UK in still split down the middle in terms of Brexit but the “leave” vote more focused to one party than the “remain” vote. In general election terms where its first past the post you can’t help thinking that it would be easier for the Tories to get to nearer 40% in moving to a harder Brexit policy than it would be for the Labour Party moving to a remain policy as the remain vote is a bit more spread out across parties. Again interesting times. Meanwhile, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn promised yesterday to support a referendum on any Brexit deal after the results (per Bloomberg). Elsewhere, writing for the Telegraph, the UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt – who is standing for leader – warned that any Prime Minister who tries to take Britain out of the EU without a deal will likely trigger a general election first which risks the “extinction” of the Conservative Party. Sterling is trading relatively flat (-0.04% to 1.2674) this morning.

This morning in Asia markets are largely up with the Nikkei (+0.43%), Hang Seng (+0.50%), Shanghai Comp (+0.89%) and Kospi (+0.10%) all higher. China’s onshore yuan is down -0.17% to 6.9093. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.22% while 10y UST yields are down -1.4bps to 2.307%. In terms of overnight data releases, Japan’s April services PPI came in at +0.9% yoy (vs. +1.1%yoy expected).

As discussed at the top, at the end of last week we updated our credit spread forecasts after the team held a mid-week round table discussion which we wrote up. We’ve been tactically bullish on credit since November 2018 but previously expected this positive momentum to turn in H2. However US President Trump’s May 5th tweet has changed the landscape somewhat and as I’ve been discussing in the EMR since, risk off continues to be the most likely outcome now. We have conducted these round table exercises on numerous occasions over recent times and its fair to say that this was the meeting where there were perhaps the most divergent views within the team which perhaps speaks to the high level of uncertainty there is at the moment about the recent trade war escalation and also where we are in the cycle. I was probably most bearish as I think we bracing ourselves for a summer sell-off as both the US and China are now entrenched enough in their views that it would be difficult for them to back down without substantial external pressure. The war of words has been worse than it was in 2018 and national pride also seems to be at stake now.

The substantial pressure that might be needed to focus minds can likely only come from the markets or economic activity falling sharply. Given that the direct impact of the recent rise in US tariffs on Chinese imports is going to be minimal then the pressure is most likely to come from markets and financial conditions tightening. By the middle of June the public consultation on tariffs on the last $300bn of Chinese imports into the US will end. This final round of goods has the most potential to be damaging to the US and global economy and as such the subsequent decisions on whether to impose tariffs is going to be very important and lead us into a higher risk period for markets.

The base case for me is that continued market pressure eventually leads to a resolution, or a truce at least, and that markets will recover, and the fact that this trade spat will likely continue to keep central banks dovish, could continue to extend this cycle a little further than I thought maybe 6 months ago. As such my (and the team’s) YE forecast are not as bearish for H2 as they were at the start of the year. For me the most important lead indicator of the US cycle remains the 2s10s yield curve(see “ Yield Curve 101 ” for why) and this has remained in a tight range over the last 6 months (mostly between +14bps to +20bps) and has struggled to flatten further since the Powell u-turn in January. Ahead of the last 9 recessions this measure of the curve has always inverted beforehand with the earliest inversion to recession timing being 8 months and the average being nearer 12-18 months. So I think we still have a minimum of 12 months left in this US cycle (outside of a complete and sudden meltdown in global trade) but my confidence of an extended cycle beyond that is low given we’re close to an inversion and with other indicators we have previously discussed suggesting we are quite late cycle (see our note ” The second longest US cycle on record.. and when it might end.. “).So in conclusion unless the US or China back down quickly, I think markets will test their resolve this summer and we’ll have a notable risk-off moment. Assuming this brings some kind of resolution, then YE spreads will all be about where we are in the cycle. I think we’re late cycle but dovish central banks have perhaps bought us a little more time than I thought at the start of the year. See the note ( link ) for the latest spread forecasts and rationale from each member of the team and the aggregated forecasts.

As for the rest of this week, trade will continue to grab the headlines but in this holiday shortened week (US, UK yesterday, parts of Europe on Thursday) the main data releases in the US are the second reading of Q1 GDP (Thursday), the latest PCE inflation data (Friday) and various surveys which will likely capture the trade war period, while in Europe the preliminary CPI readings (Friday) will be closely watched, as will China’s official PMIs on Friday.

The surveys this week will be of greater interest than normal given the recent trade escalations. The ones worth looking out for include the May US consumer confidence report today and the May manufacturing surveys from the Dallas Fed on Tuesday and Richmond Fed tomorrow, and the May Chicago PMI on Friday. In Europe there will also be a close eye on the various confidence indicators today and then the preliminary May CPI reports out of France (tomorrow), Spain (Thursday), Germany and Italy (Friday). A full rest of the week ahead is at the end.

Turning back to last week briefly now for those that were on holiday yesterday. The trading session on Friday was pretty quite calm with many leaving early for the long weekend. Equity trading volumes in the US were 25-33% below normal ahead of the holiday, though markets did advance after a softer week. Economic data was again on the soft side,with US capital goods orders falling short of expectations. Attention focused on UK PM May’s resignation, though it didn’t really have immediate macro or market implications as there has been a growing inevitability about it.

The S&P 500 ended the week -1.17% lower (+0.14% on Friday) with the tech sector again leading losses. That was the third consecutive weekly decline for the headline index, the first such streak since December. The NASDAQ dipped -1.41% (+0.11% Friday), though the real pain was again concentrated in semiconductors, with the Philly semis index -6.4% lower (-0.82% Friday). The DOW outperformed slightly, falling only -0.69% (+0.37% Friday). Treasury yields fell -7.1bps (+0.2bps Friday) and the yield curve continued to flatten, with the 2y10y back down another -3.5bps (-1.4bps Friday) to 15.4bps.

Yields in Europe fell less, with bunds ending -1.3bps lower on the week. Perversely however, European bank stocks underperformed versus their American peers, with the Stoxx Banks index ending the week -4.40% (+0.45% Friday) versus the S&P 500 banks index -0.37% (+1.09% Friday). The headline STOXX index was -1.47% lower (+0.56% Friday), with the Italian FTSE MIB lagging -3.46% (+1.19% Friday) notwithstanding some stocks going ex-div. Nevertheless, BTP yields fell -10.7bps (-8.4bps Friday), helped by Northern League leader Salvini’s comments apparently expressing a willingness to compromise on fiscal targets. This looks a bit out of date after yesterday’s move and rhetoric. The euro advanced +0.40% (+0.20% Friday) as the dollar retreated -0.39% (-0.16% Friday).