MAY 29/GOLD UP $3.90 TO $1281.70//SILVER UP 11 CENTS//DOW FALTERS AGAIN BY 220 POINTS//USA 10 YR BOND YIELD HITS 2.21% BEFORE SLIGHTLY RECOVERING TO 2.26%//PBOC PRESSES PANIC BUTTON BY RELEASING HUGE LIQUIDITY AFTER A BANKING FAILURE//GERMAN 10 YR RATE PLUMMETS TO -.18%//JAPANESE 10 YR BOND YIELD PLUMMETS TO .09%//ITALY NOW CONFIRMS THAT IT IS OF RISK TO RECEIVE A HUGE FINE FOR EXCEEDING BUDGET DEFICITS OF 2.%//HUGE NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

FINALIZED

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1281.70  UP $3.90 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.34 UP 11 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold : 1280.20

 

 

 

silver:  $14.43

 

 

 

COMEX EXPIRY FOR GOLD/SILVER:  TUES MAY 28/2019

 

LBMA/OTC EXPIRY: MAY 31.2019

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  0/0

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ (0.0000 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  306 NOTICES FOR 3060000 OZ  (.9517 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

 

 

77 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 385,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3651 for 18,255,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $8708  DOWN $51

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $  8653 DOWN $73 

 

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY AN UNBELIEVABLE SIZED 6027 CONTRACTS FROM 211,578 UP TO 217,605  DESPITE THE 23 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW IN FULL FORCE FOR GOLD. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 2294 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2294 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2294 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2294 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.47 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 23 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

AND NOW 18.765 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:

24,941 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 24,941 CONTRACTS) OR 124.71 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1247 CONTRACTS OR 6.235 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY:  124.71 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.81% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          865.80    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD AN UNBELIEVABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6027 DESPITE THE 23 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2294 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.

TODAY WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED: 8,321 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2294 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 6027  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 23 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.34 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.536 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 158% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 77 NOTICE(S) FOR  385,000, OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY:  18.765 MILLION OZ ..
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 12,153 CONTRACTS, TO 505,126 WITH THE  $6.40 PRICE FALL WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY/THERE WAS HUGE LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS YESTERDAY   

WE ARE NOW 2 TRADING DAYS PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE.  THE SIGNAL WAS GIVEN TO START THE LIQUIDATION PROCESS OF OUR SPREADERS ON MAY 21.  

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7587 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 5411 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 2176 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 505,126.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4566 CONTRACTS: 12,153 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7387 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 4566 CONTRACTS OR 456,600 OZ OR 14.20 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LARGE PRICE FALL OF $6.40 IN GOLD TRADING .AND WITH THAT FALL IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF GOLD TONNAGE OF 14.20  TONNES!!!!!!

 

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE  HAD HUGE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 129,209 CONTRACTS OR 12,920,900 OR 401.89 TONNES (20 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6460 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 401,89 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 401.89/3550 x 100% TONNES =11.32% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2217.41 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 12,153 DESPITE WITH LARGE PRICING LOSS  THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY(6.40)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7587 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7587 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 4566 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7587 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 12,153 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 14.20 TONNES). ..AND THIS LOSS OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LARGE FALL IN PRICE OF $6.40 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD A HUGE PRESENCE OF SPREADING LIQUIDATION YESTERDAY/

 

 

 

we had:  0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY

NO CHANGS IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 737,34 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 6027 CONTRACTS from 211,578 UP TO 217,605 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 2294 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2294 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 6027 CONTRACTS TO THE 2294 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 8,321 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 41.605 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 23 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2294 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 43.77 POINTS OR 0.67%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 155.10 POINTS OR 0.57%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 256.77 POINTS OR 1.21%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.67%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9091 /Oil DOWN TO 57,28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.41 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9091 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9273 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 China/Chinese affairs

 

i)China/USA

An excellent commentary on the” 3 Trump cards” that China holds on the USA, namely their rare earth supply, their huge treasury hoard and the fact that China can block USA access to the Chinese markets

( Oriental Review)

ii)Funny stuff: Huawei is to ask a USA court to declare Trump’s “national Security” ban unconstitutional even though Huawei used stolen technology.  The hearing will be in September.

(zerohedge)

iii)China presses the panic button with huge liquidity as interbank funding freezes up after the Baoshang seizure(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY

My goodness, that escalated fast…German unemployed exploded to 5.0% from 4.6% as their economy is faltering fast.

( zerohedge)

ii)Italy

The EU confirms that Italy is now risking a massive fine over its huge deficit.  It sent the Euro to session lows\\(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN/USA

Bolton says that he has no doubt that iranian naval mines were used in that UAE tanker assault last week

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)ISRAEL/PALESTINE/RUSSIA AND CHINA

It now seems that China and Russia will be against any USA initiative. Today they are against Trump’s Middle east proposal

( zerohedge)

iii)Iran/Europe/USA
A shot across the bow against Europe as they now threaten them with a loss to the uSA financial system as Europe will begin to use their new “SWIFT” system to evade sanctions by the uSA
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

VENEZUELA/

 

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

Craig Hemke discusses what the bond market is telling us:

( Sprott/Hemke/GATA)

 

 

 

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

MARKET TRADING/Europe Monday

 

 

 

ii)Market data

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

i)Are these guys nuts:  Illinois now pushes for a new “wealth tax” as highe earners will now flee the state with reckless abandon

( zerohedge)

ii)The trade battle has semi conductors as the epicentre and the UASA is on the losing end

( zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

i)Comey is one big nut job:  here he states that there was no coup and Trump and his supporters are stating nothing but lies on him and his upper echelon of cohorts

( zerohedge)

ii)Full scale war in the intelligence community as Christopher Steel refuses to cooperate with AG Barr and Durham

( zerohedge)

iii a)  We will be following this: Mueller is to make an unexpected statement on the Russian probe at 11 am

THE INTERVIEW AT 11 AM WAS A “NOTHING BURGER”

( zerohedge)

iii b)Democrats are now put into a tough spot after Mueller is goading them into the impeachment process

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)c   And then this; Pelosi and Schumer refuse to endorse impeachment procedures after the Mueller statement

( zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
end
LET US BEGIN:

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 12,153 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 505,126 WITH THE LARGE FALL OF $6.40 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7587 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 5411 CONTRACTS , AUG; 2176 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7587 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 4566 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7587 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 12,153 COMEX CONTRACTS.ALMOST ALL OF THE LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS. 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  4566 CONTRACTS OR 456600 OZ OR 14.20 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 49 contracts, having LOST 8 contracts. We had 8 notices served yesterday so we LOST 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will not stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus

The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest FELL by 64,526 contracts DOWN to 87,463.  July GAINED 249 contracts to stand at 1096.  After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 50,782 contracts up to 308,427/ contracts.  We no doubt witnessed HUGE spreading liquidation yesterday/today

 

We have 2 more trading days before first day notice, May .2019

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  NIL  OZ. (0.000 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 6027 CONTRACTS FROM 211.578 DOWN TO 217,605 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S HUGE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE THE 23 CENT FALL IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  HERE WE HAVE 195 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A LOSS OF 24 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 40 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE GAINED 16 CONTRACTS  OR AN ADDITIONAL 80,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF  JUNE.  HERE THIS MONTH LOST 156 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 467. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH GAINED 3828 CONTRACTS UP TO 161,226 CONTRACTS. THE NEXT ACTIVE MONTH AFTER JULY FOR SILVER IS SEPTEMBER AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 1438 UP TO 22,357 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 77 notice(s) filed for 385,000 OZ for the MAY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 374,463  CONTRACTS (high spreading liquidation)  

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  588,146  contracts (some spreading liquidation)

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MAY/GOLD

MAY 29 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
2170.88
oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 800 OZ
(0.0000 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
49 contracts
(4900 oz)
0.1524 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
314 notices
31400 OZ
.9766 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ nothing arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had 1 withdrawal:

out of Brinks:  2170.88 leaves brinks

 

 

 

 

.

total gold withdrawals;   2170.88 oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustments today

FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (314) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (49 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 36,300 OZ OR 1.129 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (314 x 100 oz)  + (49)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 36,300 oz standing OR 1.129 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.

We LOST 0 contract or an additional NIL oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 6.1963 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 1.129 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

IF THIS IS GOING ON IN MAY, I JUST CAN’T WAIT TO SEE WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  199,212.352 oz or  6.1963 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,677,316.825 oz 238.79 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR MAY 2018 AND FINAL STANDING MAY 31 2018//AND COMPARISON

OF OPEN INTERESTS FOR THE UPCOMING JUNE 2019 CONTRACT VS JUNE 2018

 

 

 

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND.  BY MONTH’S END:  2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

ON MAY 29.2018 WE HAD 83,331 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STILL OUTSTANDING WITH 2 TRADING DAYS AND THIS COMPARES TO 87,463 CONTRACTS WITH 2 DAYS TO GO.

 

FOR THE INITIAL JUNE 2018 CONTRACT WE HAD A HUGE 32.152 TONNES STAND.

HOWEVER BY MONTH’S END ONLY 21.56 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
MAY 28 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
148,719.189 oz
CNT
Brinks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
77
CONTRACT(S)
(385,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
118 contracts
590,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3651 contracts

18,255,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/307 milli

into everybody else:   nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of CNT: 29,848.879 oz

ii) Out of Brinks: 118,870.310 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  148,719.189 oz

 

we had 1 adjustment : and it was a dilly

i)Out of CNT:  1,564,601.797 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of CNT

and we also had an accounting error correction:

3040.280 oz of silver customer removed from JPMorgan

 

total dealer silver:  90.984 million

total dealer + customer silver:  305.909 million oz

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 77 contract(s) FOR  385,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3651 x 5,000 oz = 18,255,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (195) and the number of notices served upon today (77 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 3651(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 195) -number of notices served upon today (77)x 5000 oz equals 18,845,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.

We GAINED 16 contracts or an additional 80,000 oz will stand as these guys refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts. WE HAVE SOME SERIOUS PLAYERS GOING AFTER LARGELY DEPLETED PHYSICAL SILVER!

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE JUNE 2018 CONTRACT WE INITIALLY HAD  3.43 MILLION OZ STAND WHICH WAS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH

EVENTUALLY, 5.405 MILLION OZ STOOD FOR PHYSICAL DELIVERY.

ON THE 29TH OF MAY/2018 WE HAD  731 OPEN INTEREST WITH TWO DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE

ON THE 29TH OF MAY/2019 WE HAD 467 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STILL OUTSTANDING WITH 2 DAYS TO GO BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE.

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  74,426 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 113,270 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 113,270 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 566 million  OZ 80.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.91% (MAY 29/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.76% to NAV (MAY 29/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.91%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.69 TRADING 12.14/DISCOUNT 4.34

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.81 TONNES

MAY 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FORM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738,81 TONNES

MAY 22//WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: WE HAD A GOOD 1.52 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 739.69 TONNES

 

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: A SURPRISE 2.00 TONNES WERE ADDED  TO THE GLD GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.17 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 A HUGE 2.96 TONNE DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.17 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.50: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.23 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $15.40 TODAY: STRANGE! A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES OF GOLD (TO TAME GOLD’S RISE TODAY)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES

APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY  (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

 

APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP  $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03

 

 

 

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MAY 29/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 737.34 tonnes

*IN LAST 600 TRADING DAYS: 196.63 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 500 TRADING DAYS: A NET 30.79 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/

MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 311.616 MILLION OZ

MAY 21: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ

MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.185 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY VAULTS:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ//

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV  INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ//  THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 13//WITH SILVE5 DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ…

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

 

 

MAY 29/2019:

 

Inventory 311.616 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.11/ and libor 6 month duration 2.54

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .43

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.34%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.60

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.26

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

In Gold We Trust 2019 – Gold in the Age of Eroding Trust

In Gold We Trust 2019 The Annual Gold Report from Incrementum is Here

We are happy to report that the new In Gold We Trust Report (2019) has been released today and the download link can be found at the end of this post.

Ronnie Stoeferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum and numerous guest authors once again bring you what has become the reference work for anyone interested in the gold market.

They are honoured that some of the thought leaders of the gold market read and support their annual In Gold we Trust report! #IGWT19

Mark O’Byrne @MarkTOByrne comments on the @IGWTreport:

“Put not your trust in money, but put your money in trust.”
Oliver Wendell Holmes

Key Takeaways

• Trust is the basic value of interpersonal cooperation and the cement of our social order. The erosion of our “trust capital” can be observed in many areas of society.

• The breakdown of trust in the international monetary order is manifesting itself in the highest gold purchases by central banks since 1971 and the ongoing trend to repatriate gold reserves.

• Gold reaffirmed its portfolio position as a good diversifier as trust in the “Everything Bubble” was tested in Q4/2018. While equity markets suffered doubledigit percentage losses, gold gained 8.1% and gold mining stocks 13.7%.

• The normalization of monetary policy was abruptly halted by the stock market slump in Q4/2018. The “monetary U-turn” that we already forecasted last year has begun.

• Recession risks are significantly higher than discounted by the market. In the event of a downturn, negative interest rates, a new round of QE, and the implementation of even more extreme monetary policy ideas (e.g. MMT) are to be expected.

• When it comes to trust in investments, our vote is clear. Trust looks to the future, forms itself in the present, and feeds itself from the past. Gold can look back on a successful five-thousand-year history as sound money.

And here is the download link to the 2019 IGWT Report – Enjoy!

In Gold We Trust 2019 – Gold in the Age of Eroding Trust (PDF)

 

Own Gold & Silver Coins (CGT Free in the UK) Stored In Zurich With Six Months Free Storage
WATCH VIDEO HERE

LBMA Gold Prices (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)
28-May-19 1283.90 1278.30, 1012.87 1008.20 & 1146.91 1142.29
27-May-19  UK Bank Holiday
24-May-19 1281.50 1282.50, 1011.36 1011.89 & 1145.92 1145.40
23-May-19 1275.95 1283.65, 1009.79 1015.37 & 1146.19 1152.46
22-May-19 1274.00 1273.80, 1005.44 1008.09 & 1141.12 1141.20
21-May-19 1276.00 1271.15, 1004.85   998.62 & 1144.19 1139.84
20-May-19 1275.25 1276.85, 1000.05 1003.22 & 1142.63 1143.42
17-May-19 1285.80 1280.80, 1007.55 1005.17 & 1152.08 1146.70
16-May-19 1295.55 1291.70, 1009.62 1009.46 & 1155.76 1154.78
15-May-19 1298.90 1299.10, 1005.87 1011.87 & 1158.75 1161.53
14-May-19 1297.60 1298.40, 1002.14 1005.48 & 1154.34 1158.04
13-May-19 1282.95 1295.60, 985.95 994.89 & 1142.47 1151.27

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

Craig Hemke discusses what the bond market is telling us:

(courtesy Sprott/Hemke/GATA)

* * *

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: What is the bond market telling you?

 Section: 

5:15p ET Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interest rates, Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report writes today at Sprott Money, are inverting as they often do just before a recession and economic contraction, which may already be underway. Whereupon, he adds, the Federal Reserve will intervene massively with interest rate cuts and purchases of financial assets in another round of “quantitative easing.” Hemke predicts this will be good for gold. His analysis is headlined “What Is the Bond Market Telling You?” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/what-is-the-bond-market-telling-you-cra…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org



iii) Other Physical stories

-END-

 
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.9094/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9273   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 43.77 POINTS OR 0.67%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 155.10 POINTS OR 0.57%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 256.77 POINTS OR 1.21%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED /

 

 

 

USA dollar index RISES TO 98.00/Euro FALLS TO 1.1154

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.09/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.29/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.28 and Brent: 68.41

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.17%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.64% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.76%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.84: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.13

3k Gold at $1284.20 silver at: 14.46   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 48/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.17

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.29 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0054 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1216 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.17%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.23% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.66%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.0107..they are toast

Markets Tumble, S&P Below 2,800, Bond Yields Crater As Traders Brace For Impact

 

It’s going from bad to worse for global equity market and US stock futures, which again are a sea of red as Sino-U.S. trade tensions continue to escalate – with a rare earth boycott by China now virtually assured – while fears of an Italy-EU confrontation are growing again, accelerating a global bond rally on Wednesday, as investors dumped shares and scurried for the safety of government debt, the dollar and gold.

Amid the rush out of risk, German yields fell deeper into negative territory and inched toward record lows around minus 0.2%. In the US, 10Y Treasury bond yields reached 20-month lows, dropping as low as 2.20%, having fallen almost 30 basis points this month.

Benchmark yields slid to the lowest since 2016 in Japan, to a record in New Zealand and below the central bank’s policy rate in Australia. The 3M-10Y yield curve continued to slide deeper into negative territory, touching -13bps in the US, the lowest since 2007, and inverted in Australia and South Korea.

“What I see as more consistent is that typically when the yield curve inverts you get central bank easings. So the question about recession would be: would the U.S. Fed ease enough to avoid a recession?” said Nikko Asset Management PM Chris Rands. In relation to that, US. rates futures are pricing in two cuts by the Federal Reserve by the middle of next year to help prop up the country’s economy. “The fact that you have got a bit more noise around the trade war now at the same time as manufacturing is rolling over — it’s getting people to think that things are a little bit worse than they had expected,” he said.

Amid the global risk off, S&P500 futures slumped, with the Emini sliding below 2,800 for the first time since March after a bout of overnight selling, indicating a weak opening in New York.

Sentiment soured after President Trump’s comment that he was “not yet ready” to make a deal with China over trade. Chinese newspapers responded on Wednesday with a warning Beijing could use rare earths to strike back at the United States, suggesting further tit-for-tat escalation is imminent.

Asian stocks dropped, led by health care and consumer staples companies, after rising in the previous three trading days. Most markets in the region were down, with South Korea’s Kospi losing its year-to-date gain. The Topix gauge fell 0.9%, driven by Takeda Pharmaceutical and Sony. The Shanghai Composite Index edged higher, though, rising 0.2%, as large insurers rallied on a tax deduction.

Later in the session, declines in European miners and tech companies pulled the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lower, after Japanese and South Korean equities bore the brunt of losses in Asia. European shares opened lower, with Germany’s exporter-heavy index down 1% and a pan-European share benchmark losing 1.3%. Europe’

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Banks Index falls as much as 1.7% on Wednesday, erasing all gains for the year 2019, to head for its worst month in three years. The decline was skewed by BNP Paribas down 7.9% as stock trades ex-dividend, however it was mostly bond yields hitting new lows that was once again weighing on the sector’s earnings outlook. Italian banks remain vulnerable as the political drama continues with EU Commission President Juncker confirming the EU is ready to open a disciplinary procedure concerning Italy’s debt, la Repubblica reported.

Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, emboldened by his party’s strong EU election showing, has stepped up promises to slash taxes and is calling for new EU budget rules, raising fears his plans will drive up Italy’s huge public debt. Italian 10-year bond yields rose for the third day in a row to 2.73%.

A gauge of emerging-market stocks fell to the lowest since January and most developing-nation currencies declined versus the dollar.

It’s not just trade war and renewed Italian tensions that are spooking markets: as Morgan Stanley noted overnight, the US economy was already sliding into a slowdown ahead of the May trade war return. Recent economic data, such as purchasing-manager surveys, have disappointed — U.S. manufacturing growth dropped to 10-year lows. A barrage of American data tomorrow and Friday will give traders more to chew on as they reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

“Then we have a weaker growth outlook … so we have the negative shock of trade added to lower growth and the cushion of protection isn’t as good as it was eight to nine months ago.”

Another round of tariffs would sharply raise U.S. recession risk, said Justin Onuekwusi, a fund manager at Legal & General Investment Management. “The market is simply calculating what the impact will be of the next set of tariffs as it doesn’t look like the rhetoric is calming down. Then we have a weaker growth outlook … so we have the negative shock of trade added to lower growth and the cushion of protection isn’t as good as it was eight to nine months ago.”

As Reuters adds, the news was gloomy on the political front as well. Eurosceptic parties gained in recent EU elections, Austria and Greece face elections and Italy’s dispute with the European Commission over its budget may be escalating. In Britain, many speculate risks of a hard Brexit have risen, because candidates lining up to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May are mostly eurosceptic.

Currency activity was muted, with the dollar edging higher versus its major counterparts for a third day. The dollar is on track for its fourth straight month of gains, benefiting from flows away from markets such as Asia that are considered at greater risk from trade wars. The yuan steadied following news that the People’s Bank of China had injected the most in money-market operations since January. The euro was unchanged at $1.1159 after falling two straight days. The British pound slid to $1.2639.

On Tuesday, in its delayed report, the US Treasury said no major trading partner met currency manipulation list but added that China, Germany, Japan, Ireland, Italy, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam warrant placement on its currency monitoring list (Switzerland and India were removed). Furthermore, it lowered 2 thresholds used to designate FX manipulators and urged China to take necessary steps to avoid a persistently weak currency

In commodities, West Texas oil futures dropped, losing all of their gains from Tuesday and more, dipping below $59 a barrel in New York. Gold recovered most of Tuesday’s losses as U.S.-China trade tensions climbed and global growth concerns escalated, as investors continue to seek haven assets. The metal has missed out on some haven buying in recent days, with investors favoring the dollar and bonds. Gold is on pace for its fourth monthly decline.

Expected data include mortgage applications. Canada Goose, Trulieve Cannabis and Palo Alto Networks are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 2,790.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 371.30
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 152.67
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 497.36
  • Nikkei down 1.2% to 21,003.37
  • Topix down 0.9% to 1,536.41
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 27,235.71
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2,914.70
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 39,606.99
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 6,440.03
  • Kospi down 1.3% to 2,023.32
  • Brent futures down 2.2% to $68.60/bbl
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to -0.163%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1158
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 2.31%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 4.9 bps to 0.738%
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,284.73
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 99.04

Top Overnight News

  • The Trump administration again refrained from labeling China a currency manipulator. The U.S. Treasury Department issued its semi-annual foreign-exchange report, expanding the number of countries it scrutinizes for currency manipulation to 21 from 12
  • Traders are pricing in quicker and deeper rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as global macro risks ratchet higher. Swap markets now indicate expectations for three 25 basis point cuts by the end of 2020, a new dovish extreme for this cycle
  • China accused the U.S. of abusing a national security exception at the WTO by cutting off Huawei Technologies to American suppliers and warned the move could have grave consequences
  • Treasuries are in the vanguard of a bull run in global bonds, bringing into sight the prospect of benchmark 10-year yields dropping to 2% for the first time since late 2016
  • Oil climbed for a second day as supply risks from the Middle East to the U.S. Great Plains overwhelmed concerns trade tensions will swamp energy demand
  • Beijing is gearing up to use its dominance of rare earths as a counter in its trade battle with Washington, according to a salvo of media reports in China that included hints from the state planning agency
  • Angela Merkel has decided that Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who took over as leader of the Christian Democratic Union in December, is not up to the country’s top job, according to two officials with knowledge of her thinking
  • Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and faltering global growth have seen U.S. 10-year yields tumble and has brought into sight the prospect of benchmark yields dropping to 2% for the first time since late 2016
  • German unemployment unexpectedly rose by 60,000 in May, compared with economists’ forecasts for a decline of 8,000. This was the first climb in almost two years as the economic slowdown finally started to take a toll on the labor market
  • China’s central bank moved to curb the risk of a funding squeeze on banks after the government’s surprise seizure of Baoshang Bank Co. sparked a jump in borrowing costs. The PBOC injected a net $36 billion Wednesday

Asian equity markets were mostly lower following the headwinds from US where all major indices declined on return from the extended weekend and in which the E-mini S&P eventually broke below the 2800 level. The weakness was attributed to lingering trade tensions after Chinese press pointed the blame on US for the recent breakdown in talks and as the outspoken Global Times Editor suggested China is seriously considering restricting rare earth exports to the US. ASX 200 (-0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.2%) were negative with broad weakness seen across nearly all sectors in Australia and with financials subdued by the recent declines in global yields, while currency strength added to the pressures for Tokyo stocks. Hang Seng (-0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) declined amid the trade uncertainty and as early data indicators reportedly suggested China’s economy weakened this month, although the losses were cushioned by a substantial liquidity operation of CNY 270bln which resulted to the PBoC’s largest daily net injection since mid-January. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as they tracked the upside in global counterparts amid declining yields and the negative risk sentiment, which lifted prices of the Japanese 10yr benchmark to above 153.00 and its best level since early April.

Top Asian News

  • The Old Yen-as-Haven Trade Just Isn’t Panning Out as It Should
  • Malaysia Weighs Bids for Return to Euro, Swiss Franc Bond Market
  • Bank of Thailand MPC Member Expects Period of Key Rate Stability

European equities are lower across the board [Eurostoxx -1.6%] following on from a downbeat session in Asia as sentiment took the queue from Wall Street after the E-Mini S&P took out the 2800 level to the downside. Sectors are all in the red with IT names lagging after Huawei signalled that it is pressing ahead with its lawsuit against the US government as US-China tech tensions intensify. Defensive stocks such as utilities and healthcare names are somewhat faring better, albeit still in the red. In terms of individual movers, ProsiebentSat1 (+4.0%) spiked higher amid reports that Mediaset (-0.8%) are to purchase a 9.1% stake in the company, which would grant 9.9% of voting rights, although Mediaset noted that they do not seek board representation. Elsewhere, Casino (-4.6%) shares slid after the company announced that it will not pay an interim dividend this year, whilst S&P downgraded its credit after its parent company entered French safeguard procedures. Finally, ArcelorMittal (-4.0%) opened lower by as much as 7% after cutting production guidance in Europe amid weak market demand. In light of the recent sell-off in stocks amid trade woes, Nomura believe that the downside can be seen as orderly and sentiment is not out of control. The analysts state that the recent sell off in equities is being fuelled by transient stock selling via speculative players and a seasonal rise in volatility, as global equities pass through a predictable second wave of selling. Following the E-mini S&P’s declined below 2800, eyes turn to the cash market at the US open where Nomura warns that “CTAs have been pressed to close out long positions and cut their losses once the S&P 500 broke below 2,820”, but CTAs have already unwound over 80% of their longs, thus the risk of a chain reaction sell-off has diminished.

Top European News

  • German Unemployment Rises as Weaker Economy Starts to Bite
  • Berlusconi’s Mediaset Buys Stake in Germany’s ProSiebenSat.1
  • Swiss Open Criminal Probe After Complaint Against Glencore
  • Varta Acquires Varta Consumer Batteries Business From Energizer

In FX, we start with CHF/JPY/USD – The Franc’s resurgence or rebound from yesterday’s lows seems symptomatic of the wider safe-haven demand and deeper risk-off sentiment. Usd/Chf has retreated towards 1.0050 again vs a fraction shy of 1.0100 at one stage on Tuesday, while Eur/Chf is drifting back down to 1.1200 compared to almost 1.1280, albeit with the single currency under pressure independently on the back of latest bleak German data – see below. Usd/Jpy has also recoiled to retest key Fib support ahead of 109.00 at 109.23 (Fib retracement level) having bounced firmly to just over 109.60, but decent option expiry interest may prop up the headline pair (1 bn between 109.00-15) on top of anticipated buying interest at the big figure. Note also, the Buck has extended its recovery in wake of upbeat US consumer confidence and with the aid of gains vs riskier/high beta currencies, with the DXY back above 98.000, albeit just and eyeing last week’s 98.373 ytd best within a 98.043-97.861 range.

  • NZD/CAD/GBP/AUD/EUR – All softer vs the Greenback, and with the Kiwi underperforming after the latest RBNZ FSR and NBNZ business survey showing that expectations remain weak. Nzd/Usd has slipped back below 0.6550 to around 0.6515, with the Aud/Nzd cross climbing over 1.0600 again even though the Aussie is also struggling to retain 0.6900+ status following yet another uber dovish RBA call overnight as JPM is now predicting a total of 100 bp worth of easing by mid-2020. Elsewhere, the Loonie is really trading on the defensive as the clock ticks down to a potentially dovish BoC with Usd/Cad not far from 1.3520+ late April peaks and options pricing a circa 53 pip break-even over the event – see our policy meeting preview on the Research Suite. Meanwhile, Cable is slipping further from 1.2700 towards the big figure below as another Tory leadership hopeful joins the list and the EU stresses no renegotiation of the WA, and Eur/Usd is hovering just above 1.1150 stops having failed to hold above the 30 DMA (1.1191) again. Note, a shock jump in German unemployment and uptick in the jobless rate that was only partly mitigated by a reclassification of the labour force also weighed on the Euro as noted above.
  • NOK/SEK – Divergence between the Scandi Crowns as Eur/Nok rebounds through 9.7500 amidst another retreat in oil prices (that may also be niggling the Cad), but Eur/Sek is capped around 10.7000 after significantly stronger than forecast Swedish Q1 GDP data (largely due to a healthy export contribution vs depressed domestic consumption however).
  • EM – Contrasting fortunes for the Lira and Rand as well, like yesterday, as Usd/Try revisits 6.0000, but Usd/Zar pivots 14.8000 within 14.8900-7000 parameters on a further fall-out from SA political developments and the return of Mabuza to Ramaphosa’s fold.

In commodities, WTI (-2.3%) and Brent (-2.0%) futures continue to free-fall amidst the risk-off tone in the market, with the former extending loses below the psychological USD 58.00/bbl and under its 100 DMA at USD 58.46/bbl. Similarly, its Brent counterpart trades south of the USD 69/bbl level and closer to the USD 68.50/bbl mark. News flows has been relatively light in the complex although the Druzhba pipeline will be pumping clean oil to Hungary as of 1700BST following the halt in operations amid contaminated oil from Russia in mid-April. Turning to OPEC, ahead the upcoming meeting of the cartel (date yet to be confirmed), Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister noted that it stands ready to join the extension of the global oil cut deal if the decision in taken. On that front, Russia’s First Deputy PM noted that they will consider an extension to the deal but have arguments in favour and against an extension, adding that Moscow will continue to weight the arguments. Finally, as a reminder, the API crude inventory data will be released tonight due to US’ market absence on Monday, and thus the EIA release has been delayed until tomorrow.

Over in the metal complex, gold (+0.4%) continues to rise despite a firmer USD as investors flee to the safe haven amid the current risk aversion; meanwhile, copper (-0.8%) falls in tandem with the risk tone. Further for the red metal, workers at the Chilean Chuquicamata copper mine of have been voting on a potential strike after labour unions rejected management’s final offer on wages. The results of the vote are expected this evening.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 2.4%
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 7, prior 3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

If like me you are looking to fill the Game of Thrones void you can do worse than to watch “Chernobyl” if it’s available in your region. I got home late from Madrid last night and didn’t even say hello to my wife but instead rushed in and sat down next to her to watch the gripping penultimate episode after binge watching the previous three over the last week. Obviously the subject matter and scenes are not for the faint hearted but it really is very good. I looked at the definitive big screen database IMDb last night and remarkably it’s already become the highest ranked TV show in history. For those interested, the full top 10 are Chernobyl, Planet Earth II, Band of Brothers, Planet Earth I, Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, Our Planet, The Wire, Cosmos and Blue Planet. Obviously a lot of natural history fans on this site. The only problem about getting hooked on the five episodes of Chernobyl is that I’m pretty sure that it’s not going to have a season 2!!

It feels like the trade war still has a number of episodes left with the option of being renewed for a new season. The stand-off continues to dominate proceedings in markets with yesterday’s highlight being a fresh new low for 10y Treasuries after they closed at 2.266%, down -5.4bps (a further -2.4bps this morning) and to the lowest for over 20 months. Though equities opened higher and held up well for most of the day, they ended up selling off in the last two hours of NY trading. The S&P 500 fell -0.84%, with the DOW and NASDAQ down -0.93% and -0.39%, respectively. The utilities sector fell -1.61%, retracing some of its recent outperformance, while the NYFANG index was the rare bright spot after a +0.05% advance.

Earlier comments from President Trump about the US not being ready to reach a trade deal with China and that tariffs could go up “very very substantially”, as well as the not-so-insignificant news that the Chinese government had taken control of Baoshang Bank – the first Chinese bank seized in 20 years – and also that China is “seriously considering” restricting rare earth exports to the US according to the Global Times Editor, all contributed to the negative sentiment even if the full sell off only occurred late in the day. In fairness a surprisingly upbeat consumer confidence reading (more on that below) was reason for some earlier optimism.

A flight to quality dominated though and not only did yields fall but the US curve flattened with 2s10s -1.5bps at +13.9bs and to the lowest since March. It has reversed this move this morning though as 2yr yields are over 4bps lower. Bunds ticked down another -1.7bps yesterday to close at -0.161%. I must admit that after they sold off from their all time record low of -0.189% in July 2016, I was pretty confident that we may not see these lows again for perhaps a thousand years given where yields have traded over the last millennium. I’m 2.7bps from being 997 years wrong.

Meanwhile the STOXX 600 closed -0.22% with Italian assets remaining choppy yesterday. They initially opened much weaker although they did at least attempt to bounce back late afternoon. The FTSE MIB closed -0.50% after being down -1.33% in the morning session and 10y BTPs finished flat after rallying back 5bps from the earlier wides. The partial recovery appeared to be supported by the EU’s Moscovici stating that he didn’t support sanctions for Italy. A reminder that this followed stories of the European Commission proposing a disciplinary procedure for Italy as soon as next week following failure to reduce its debt. Regardless, Northern League leader Salvini said he plans to push ahead with his tax cut plan by submitting it to the cabinet, so this issue will continue to fester for many more months.

After US markets had closed, the US Treasury released their latest FX Report, which refrained from labeling any countries as “currency manipulators,” but expanded the list of countries under review and added Italy, Ireland, Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam to the “watch list.” Notably, they did not designate China as a manipulator, which would have automatically triggered a new bilateral negotiation process and possible additional sanctions, though the language criticised the “misalignment and undervaluation of the RMB relative to the dollar.” The new countries join China, Japan, Korea, and Germany on the watch list, while India and Switzerland were removed. The criteria used to evaluate countries were also modified, with stricter definitions for a material current account surplus and persistent one-sided intervention.

Turing to trade war related news, most of China’s news dailies are carrying articles today signifying that China could use rare earth exports as a bargaining chip in the ongoing trade war with the US. The Global Times carried an editorial today saying that “sooner or later” China will use “the weapon of rare earth” if the US keeps escalating the trade war while adding that although this weapon is powerful, it will only be used as a tool for defence to convey a message that China won’t bow to US pressure. The People’s Daily, a flagship newspaper of the ruling Communist Party, also carried an editorial today stating that the US shouldn’t underestimate China’s ability to fight the trade war while using some historically significant language on the weight of China’s intent, like the phrase “don’t say I didn’t warn you.” The specific wording was used by the paper in 1962 before China went to war with India and in 1979 before conflict broke out between China and Vietnam. The Global Times had said in an article in April that “those familiar with Chinese diplomatic language know the weight of this phrase.” Meanwhile, an official at the China’s National Development & Reform Commission told CCTV that people in the country won’t be happy to see products made with exported rare earths from China being used to suppress China’s development. Elsewhere, at a meeting of the WTO’s Committee on Market Access in Geneva yesterday, China said that the US had violated WTO rules and urged the Trump administration to “immediately lift all unilateral sanction measures against Chinese companies” while warning that the move could have grave consequences for the global trading system. So lots of more negative rhetoric.

This morning in Asia markets are mostly trading down with the Nikkei (-1.17%), Hang Seng (-0.40%), Shanghai Comp (-0.11%) and Kospi (-1.47%) all lower. The South Korean won is down -0.631% this morning while the onshore Chinese yuan is trading flattish (-0.06% to 6.9142). Meanwhile, yields on 10yr JGBs are down -0.4bps to -0.09% and crude oil prices (WTI -1.03% and Brent -0.68%) are heading lower. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.32%. In commodities, base and ferrous metals are heading lower with iron ore futures (down c.3%) leading the declines.

In other news, the PBOC stepped up its efforts to bridge the funding gap in China’s financial system after the surprise seizure of Baoshang Bank Co. led to a jump in borrowing costs by injecting c. CNY 250bn into the financial system via open-market operations today. So lots of moving parts at the moment.

In terms of data yesterday, US consumer confidence in May surprisingly jumped +4.9pts to 134.1, exceeding expectations for a 130.0 reading. In fact the headline reading is now back to being at the highest level since last November. Both the present situations and expectations components rose also with the data collected through the 18th of this month, and thus capturing some of the recent risk off. So a surprisingly positive set of data given the recent trade escalation. It’s worth noting that within that survey, the jobs plentiful/hard-to-get differential hit the highest since 2000 which points to a still healthy labour market. Elsewhere, we also got plenty of house price data yesterday including the FHFA house price index (+0.1% mom vs. +0.2% expected) and S&P CoreLogic index (+0.09% vs. +0.46% expected) – both of which disappointed in March and confirmed that home price appreciation has slowed meaningfully in recent months. Finally, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing activity survey dropped to -5.3 from 2.0, close to its multi-year low.

As for Europe, the most significant release was the ECB’s M3/credit report for April. Our economists in Europe noted that in summary the monthly credit data were positive in aggregate with net bank loan flows, after recent soft prints, recovering to EUR +43bn, the highest monthly print in the current cycle. As a result, the euro area credit impulse rebounded from negative levels in recent months to its strongest reading since summer 2018, with credit growth picking up to +3.7% yoy. However, the team also flagged that country details show signs of concern due to underperformance in the periphery. Though the credit impulse rebounded in Italy and Spain, it was boosted by base effects and it is set to turn negative again if the current pace of loan flows, with negative corporate credit growth, continues. For the ECB, the credit data continue to favour generous TLTRO3 terms but less so deposit tiering in the view of the team. On that topic of deposit tiering and the adverse impact of negative interest rates, Bank of France Governor Villeroy said yesterday that “the issue should certainly not be ignored, but we also need to avoid blowing it out of proportion.”

As for the other data yesterday, the May economic confidence reading for the Euro Area improved 1.2pts to 105.1, far exceeding expectations for a broadly flat print. In addition industrial and service sector confidence was higher however industrial order books, and especially export orders, were down once again. On a country level, Germany’s consumer confidence ticked down slightly while France’s rose. Over in Turkey, consumer confidence fell to 55.5, its lowest level on record going back to 2004, though the lira nevertheless strengthened +0.50%.

To the day ahead now, which is another quiet one for data with the preliminary May CPI and final Q1 GDP reports in France this morning, May unemployment data in Germany and then the May Richmond Fed manufacturing survey in the US being the only releases due. Away from, that we’re due to hear from the ECB’s Mersch and Rehn this morning before we get the release of the ECB’s financial stability review. The BoC rate decision is also due this afternoon.

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 43.77 POINTS OR 0.67%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 155.10 POINTS OR 0.57%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 256.77 POINTS OR 1.21%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.67%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9091 /Oil DOWN TO 57,28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.41 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9091 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9273 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

SOUTH KOREA

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

i)China/USA

An excellent commentary on the” 3 Trump cards” that China holds on the USA, namely their rare earth supply, their huge treasury hoard and the fact that China can block USA access to the Chinese markets

(courtesy Oriental Review)

Global Times: China Holds Three Trump Cards In War Against US

Via Oriental Review,

Amid the escalating economic war between the US and China, discussions have intensified on how Beijing might stand up to the economic power of America, especially given that the global economy is increasingly dependent on the US dollar as the main currency for international trade, and the closing of US markets could do some serious damage to China’s export-oriented companies. China’s main foreign-policy publication, the Global Times, points to three trump cards that Beijing could use to at least level the playing field in its fight with the Trump administration and cause appreciable harm to the US economy, possibly forcing its opponent to temporarily scale back its ambitions.

According to an article in the Global Times by a professor at the Renmin University of China, the three trump cards are:

1) banning the export of rare earths to the US;

2) blocking US companies’ access to Chinese markets; and

3) using China’s portfolio of US Treasury bonds to bring down the US government debt market.

Each of these trump cards are worth looking at in detail, both in terms of their impact on the US economy and also in terms of any possible retaliation from the US and the repercussions for the global economy as a whole.

Banning the export of rare earths to the US would actually be a pretty serious blow for US electronics manufacturers and, indeed, US high-tech manufacturers generally. This is because rare earths are a key raw material for the production of smartphones, various chips, and other high-value-added products that are the biggest cash cows of US companies such as Apple and Boeing.

President Donald Trump during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He over trade talks in the Oval Office, February 22, 2019

Reuters, an agency one could hardly accuse of sympathising with Beijing, reports: “The United States has again decided not to impose tariffs on rare earths and other critical minerals from China, underscoring its reliance on the Asian nation for a group of materials used in everything from consumer electronics to military equipment.”

China does not exactly have a monopoly on such materials, but the market would definitely be in short supply without Chinese exports, with all the price implications that would bring. Moreover, it is likely that some deficit positions will be impossible to close no matter how much money is involved.

Not everything is that simple, however. Should such a ban be introduced, then Beijing will encounter certain technical difficulties. If sanctions are only imposed on US companies, then they will still be able to purchase the necessary materials through Japanese or European straw buyers, making the embargo pointless. But if China imposes a total export ban, then it won’t just be US companies that suffer but European ones as well, leading to EU reprisals against Chinese exporters to Europe. This would be very painful for China, especially given the economic war with the US that is making access to European markets invaluable to the Chinese economy.

It appears that a ban on rare earth exports is a powerful weapon, but its use will require the utmost delicacy and serious diplomatic efforts to avoid any extremely unpleasant side effects.

The second trump card mentioned by the Global Times is blocking US companies’ access to the fast-growing and extensive Chinese market. This should be looked at from a political, rather than economic, point of view (although the latter may seem logical). The aim of such restrictive measures is not to inflict unacceptable damage on the US economy, but to make the full might of America’s corporate lobbying machine work against Donald Trump and support his political opponents.

According to the S&P Dow Jones Indices, Asia only accounts for around 14 per cent of the sales of S&P 500 companies. If we assume that China makes up the majority of this, then not even a complete closure of the Chinese markets would be a disaster. There are a few important details, however.

  • First, China is the only (and final) market for sales growth for many US companies. So if China closes, the graphs at business presentations won’t be showing any kind of growth.
  • Second, China plays a key role in many production chains that end with sales in the US and other markets. A loss of access to Chinese production would therefore severely damage the competitiveness of American companies on the world (and even on the US) market, especially if their European and Japanese competitors retain complete access to China’s production facilities.

As a result, the profits of US companies and the future of the American stock market (which is a key political barometer given that many Americans have invested their savings in shares) would be at risk. It might be possible to offset these problems by transferring production to other Asian countries with cheap labour and favourable terms, but this couldn’t be done quickly and it would be risky, given that Trump is waging trade wars with everyone from the European Union to loyal US allies such as Japan and India. In light of this, US companies will have a huge incentive to prevent Trump from being elected for a second term, and the lobbying and political capabilities of that part of the US corporate sector that will suffer the most from this trump card could really play a key role in the political victory of Trump’s opponents.

The third trump card involves China dumping its portfolio of US Treasury bonds. The Global Times writes: “China holds more than $1 trillion of US Treasury bonds. China made a great contribution to stabilizing the US economy by buying US debt during the financial crisis in 2008. The US would be miserable if China hits it when it is down.” One can conclude from this that Beijing will most probably save dumping its portfolio of US treasury bonds for dessert – in that it will have the biggest impact when the US stock market is experiencing its next crisis.

China’s Vice Premier Liu He (left) speaks during a meeting with President Donald Trump (right) in the Oval Office of the White House on February 22, 2019

The move is not likely to cause catastrophic damage in and of itself (although the value of US bonds will definitely fall), but if it is done at the moment when America is most vulnerable, then China’s portfolio may well end up being the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Beijing is not displaying a particularly cocksure attitude. As the Global Times’ editor-in-chief quite rightly notes on Twitter:

“Most Chinese agree that the US is more powerful than China and Washington holds initiative in the trade war. But we just don’t want to cave in and we believe there is no way the US can crush China. We are willing to bear some pain to give the US a lesson.”

As China lays its trump cards on the table, the world’s globalised economy will creak and collapse. Globalisation is going backwards, and chances are we’ll end up with a completely different economic system that has more protectionism. Instead of a global market, there will be several large regional markets with their own rules, dominant currencies, technical standards, and financial systems.

END
Funny stuff: Huawei is to ask a USA court to declare Trump’s “national Security” ban unconstitutional even though Huawei used stolen technology.  The hearing will be in September.
(zerohedge)

Huawei Asks US Court To Declare ‘National Security’ Ban Unconstitutional

It’s a testament to the American legal system that even companies like Huawei, which built an empire on stolen technologyand shady anti-competitive practices, have a right to seek redress of grievances in US courts.

Song

Song Liuping

The Chinese telecoms firm on Wednesday filed a motion in a Texas court seeking a summary judgment on the constitutionality of the Trump Administration’s decision to prohibit US companies and government agencies from using Huawei equipment due to ‘national security’ concerns. The motion is the latest development in a lawsuit that Huawei first filed back in March challenging Section 889 of the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) – signed into law back in August – which barred federal agencies and their contractors from buying Huawei equipment.

That prohibition has since been expanded by executive order to cover most American companies.

The lawsuit was filed in the US District Court for the Eastern District of Texas, which covers the headquarters of Huawei’s American subsidiary in Plano, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

Huawei’s chief legal officer Song Liuping argued that the “state sanctioned” campaign wouldn’t improve national security, and accused the White House of using “the strength of an entire nation” to “come after a private company.”

“That is not normal,” he added.

Trump’s executive order invoked the Emergency Economic Powers Act, which grants the president the authority to regulate commerce in response to perceived national security threats. Trump administration officials have insisted the order is “company and country agnostic.”

The legal challenge is Huawei’s “last line of defense for justice,” Song said, adding that the security objections were a “ruse” designed to “gain support for other goals” – presumably a reference to the Trump Administration’s trade war with China.

“We believe that US politicians are using cybersecurity as an excuse to gain public support for actions that are designed to achieve other goals,” he said. “These actions will do nothing to make networks more secure.”

On Wednesday, the FT reported – citing unnamed senior Huawei officials – that Washington’s decision to blacklist Huawei will impact roughly 1,200 American suppliers, including chipmakers and software companies, including companies that – ironically enough – produce cybersecurity software, once the ban takes effect in August.

The decision is a ‘distraction’, he added, even as the company has so far failed to provide any evidence contradicting claims that it’s a security threat.

“They provide a false sense of security and distract attention from the real challenges we face.”

“There is no gun, no smoke – only speculation,” he said.

A hearing on Huawei’s motion won’t be held until September.

end

China presses the panic button with huge liquidity as interbank funding freezes up after the Baoshang seizure

(courtesy zerohedge)

PBOC Panics, Floods Market With Liquidity As Interbank Funding Freezes After Baoshang Seizure

With China’s bond market continues to be hammered in the aftermath of the government’s surprise seizure of Baoshang  Bank (see “A Big Wake Up Call”: Chinese Bond Market Roiled By First Ever Bank Failure“), the PBOC – whose open market operations had been in dormancy for much of 2019 – finally panicked and on Wednesday injected a whopping net 250 billion yuan ($36 billion) into the financial system via open-market operations, as it fills what traders have dubbed a growing funding gap following the Baoshang failure.

The consequences of this liquidity flood were instant: China’s overnight repurchase rate, a measure of interbank liquidity, tumbled the most in three weeks, while the benchmark 7-day repo rate also declined.

“The operations so far this week send a strong signal that the PBOC is ready to ensure ample liquidity for the market, amid fragile sentiment in the credit and bond market,” said Westpac strategist Frances Cheung. The central bank also set the daily yuan fixing at a stronger-than-expected level to prevent even a hint of speculation that China will be have no choice but to devalue the yuan as part of the “reliquification” of the market.

The PBOC’s massive liquidity injection, which was the largest since January when the S&P was still close to a bear market and started the tremendous Chinese stock market rally, also helped the Shanghai Composite be one of the few markets that closed in the green overnight.

However, while the near-term reaction was favorable to Chinese risk, the paradox is that this only became a viable option as a result of a far greater problem: China’s interbank funding market is starting to freeze.

As we reported on Tuesday, the bank has – or rather had – more than 60 billion yuan of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) and 6.5 billion yuan of subordinated bonds outstanding. Trading in the the company’s NCDs and other bonds was promptly suspended on Monday, with traders fearing that a self-fulfillling prophecy would emerge as contagion spreads to other troubled banks’ NCDs and/or bonds.

As noted previously, the contingent convertible/perpetual debt issued by some of the more troubled banks such as Huishang, Bank of Zhengzhou and China Zheshang Bank, was hammered over the past three days and has yet to recover.

As an aside, for those asking why NCD’s matter, the answer is because as we explained as far back as two years ago, numerous smaller banks had become acutely reliant on such shadow banking funding mechanisms as Certificates of Deposit, which had become the primary source of short-term funding for many of China’s banks mid-size and smaller banks.

As Deutsche Bank further explained, the banks most exposed to a shut down in this “shadow funding” pathway are medium-sized and small banks, for whom wholesale funding made up 31% and 23%, a number that has risen substantially in the interim period.

The issue of NCD funding is especially troublesome, because as Bloomberg reported overnight, in the aftermath of the Baoshang seizure, some Chinese banks and securities firms “tightened requirements for negotiable certificates of deposits that are used as collateral for funding.” In some cases, private NCDs were shunned altogether, and some financial institutions now only accept NCDs sold by state-owned and joint stock banks as collateral while some have refused to lend money to investors pledging NCDs issued by lenders rated AA+ and below for now.

While the lock up in the NCD market is concerning, it is only partial so far, even as yields on Chinese banks’ NCDs spiked in the past 48 hours after only 44% of the planned amount was issued. Putting this in context, banks typically issue an average of 82% of the planned amount.

“The Baoshang incident is pressuring short-term liquidity,” said a trader at a Chinese bank. “Along with month-end seasonal factors, cash conditions are becoming tighter and pushing up the near-date swap points higher. And that has led the swap curve moving upward.”

Ji Tianhe, China rates and FX strategist at BNP Paribas in Beijing, said that the takeover of Baoshang could be interpreted as a “marginal targeted deleveraging” campaign, and could change the ecosystem of the interbank market.

“Smaller banks are supposed to serve the real economy, but some turned out be very active in interbank trading in order to expand their size. Now this latest move is pushing similar small lenders back to their core business,” Ji said according to Reuters. He added that as small banks are not allowed to borrow in the exchange market and have to largely rely on bigger banks for interbank funding, “they are now facing a challenging funding situation.”

This also explains why traders are casting concerned glances at Chinese bonds, because as Jianghai Securities explained overnight, China’s government bonds may slide as banks sell them to make up a liquidity shortfall from issuing fewer negotiable certificates of deposits.

Analysts at OCBC bank said in a note on Tuesday that the takeover had sparked a sell-off in Chinese sovereign bonds on Monday after reports that corporate deposits and interbank liabilities over 50 million yuan could be subject to a haircut of 20%-30%, “due to concern about the possible break of implicit guarantee.”

“This may cause interbank lenders to reassess their relationship with the smaller lenders,” the analysts said.

But a partial (or complete) freeze of the interbank funding market, which many believe is what was the key catalyst behind the US financial crisis as shadow funding conduits froze up in the aftermath of the Lehman failure, is just one of China’s major headaches. The far bigger one is the risk of a bank run.

And to address that, just around the time Baoshang was about to be nationalized, the central bank set up a wholly-owned deposit insurance fund with registration capital of 10 billion yuan on May 24, according to registration record on a website run by State Administration for Market Regulation. It’s also why on May 26, the central bank said on May 26 that PBOC, CBIRC and Deposit Insurance Fund will guarantee some Baoshang Bank debt repayment.

The good news is that for now, there have been no reports of bank runs, or even jogs, in China, although this is precisely the kind of news that would be throttled and censored as much as possible by Beijing, which can not afford a countrywide bank run, threatening the collapse of China’s massive $35 billion banking system.

China’s central bank will face increasing challenges in the coming weeks to balance liquidity injections and a depreciating yuan, Bank of America Merrill Lynch says.

The last item is that with the PBOC panicking, this may have major implications on the global scene, where the last thing China can afford is to be seen devaluing the yuan. Alas, as Bank of America notes, the PBOC is now trapped as it needs to inject even more liquidity into the system amid deteriorating data, signs of fund outflows, US-China trade tensions and as 463 billion yuan of MLF matures on June 6. The PBOC’s challenge lies in adding liquidity without letting the yuan depreciate too far, and as BofA’s Claudio Piron notes, “leaning more on monetary easing rather than fiscal will cause yields to fall and the yuan to depreciate against the greenback” which is why in preempting this, PBOC has added the massive cash injection through OMO. To be sure, while the PBOC will likely have to inject much more liquidity, the likelihood of a cut in banks’ reserve requirement ratio when the 463BN yuan of MLF expires in June is increasing.

One thing that is certain: Baoshang is just the tip of the iceberg. According to UBS analyst Jason Bedford, who in 2017 was the first to highlight Baoshang’s troubles, there are several other banks that have “identical leading risk indicators” to Baoshang. Hengfeng Bank, Jinzhou Bank Co. and Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank all failed to publish their latest financial statements, have a large portion of their balance sheets invested in “loan-like investment assets” and are subject to negative local media coverage, he said in a note to clients published Tuesday.

As Bloomberg reports, Hangfeng said that it hasn’t completed auditing and reviewing its financial statements. Officials at Jinzhou and Chengdu Rural didn’t reply to requests for comment.

In short expect more Chinese bank failures in the coming weeks.

The bottom line: while much of the world is focusing on the still intangible consequences of the latest round of trade war escalation, China is currently going through a very real, and very problematic rebalancing between adjusting the level of market liquidity without sparking a sharp selloff in the yuan, which would push it below 7.00 vs the USD, and provoking another major, and panicked, capital outflow which could have dire consequences on China’s capital market and economy.

So while focusing on any flashing red headlines over the latest trade war developments, keep a close eye on what is taking place below the surface in China’s banking system, where the risk of substantial deterioration has risen substantially following the first Chinese bank failure in nearly three decades.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

My goodness, that escalated fast…German unemployed exploded to 5.0% from 4.6% as their economy is faltering fast.

(courtesy zerohedge)

German Unemployment Explodes Most Since Financial Crisis, Sending Bund Yields Near Record Lows

With China failing to spark a global reflationary wave, prompting fears that Beijing’s record credit injection to start 2019 was for nothing and a repeat of the Shanghai Accord won’t take place, coupled with collapsing global trade, which we noted earlier this month…

… on Wednesday Germany reported that its economy appears to have finally hit major pothole as German unemployment unexpectedly surged for the first time in almost two years as the economic slowdown finally started to take a toll on the labor market, according to Bloomberg. Specifically, in May the number of people out of work climbed by 60,000 compared with economists’ forecasts for a decline of 8,000, while the jobless rate also increased to 5% from a record-low 4.9%.

According to Germany’s Federal Labor Agency about two-thirds of the increase was due to reclassification of some people in the statistics, however it also blamed a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy.

“We are seeing the first signs of a weakening economy on unemployment,” it said on Wednesday. It added that demand for new employees is still at a high level, but is softening.

This provided further impetus to buy German bunds, pushing the yield on the benchmark paper further below zero, to a near-record -0.167%.

Until recently, continued strength in Germany’s labor market helped boost consumer spending and support the economy. However, a turnaround in fortunes could be very damaging for Europe’s largest economy, given ongoing weakness in manufacturing and the auto industry, as well as trade tensions that threaten to hit exports. Business confidence plunged this month to the weakest in more than four years.

Naturally, should German growth suddenly hit a brick wall it would have dramatic consequences for the entire Eurozone.
As Bloomberg notes, “a turnaround in fortunes could be very damaging, given ongoing weakness in manufacturing and the auto industry, as well as trade tensions that threaten to hit exports.”

end

Italy

The EU confirms that Italy is now risking a massive fine over its huge deficit.  It sent the Euro to session lows\\(courtesy zerohedge)

EU Confirms Italy Risks Massive Fine Over Debt, Sending Euro To Session Lows

Following an unconfirmed report on Monday that Italy faces a €3.5 billion fine from the European Commission unless Europe’s largest sovereign debtor curbs its debt levels, moments ago Bloomberg confirmed that the Commission has indeed put Italy’s debt once again in its sights, sending a letter to the Italian finance minister in which it warned Italy that it has not made sufficient progress towards compliance with its debt-reduction obligations, and is at risk of disciplinary measures in accordance with EU law.

The Commission specifically asked Italy to provide explanations about 2018 debt by May 31, which the Commission will take into account in its final report on the matter. In response, an Italian Finance Ministry spokesman said minister Giovanni Tria “received as expected” a letter sent by the European Commission on the nation’s debt and “stands ready to reply.”

And while the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Moscovici, noted yesterday that he is not in favor of sanctioning Italy, the market is having flashbacks to the controversial Italian deficit negotiations of 2018 which sent Italian bond yields soaring, and the result was an immediate drop in the Euro to session lows…

… while Italian 10Y bond yields bounced.

The European warning comes at a time when Italy’s resurgent de facto leader, and Deputy Prime Minister, Matteo Salvini, fresh off a rousing electoral victory, said he’ll now devote all his energy to changing the European Union’s “old and obsolete rules” and hammered the bloc over the prospect of penalties against Italy. He went so far as to demand for the ECB to fund Italian deficit spending.

It also comes at a time when the future of Italy’s coalition government is at stake, with tensions between 5-Star and Salvini’s League threatening to collapse the current regime, leading to elections that could see Salvini take unilateral control.

In fact, overnight, Italy’s prime minister Conte said he plans to ask Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini for an expression of confidence in order to continue in his position, according to La Stampa.

Conte told people close to him during his trip to Brussels he’ll seek a public show of support from Salvini; “otherwise I’ll tell him I’m not available to remain”, which of course would mean new elections and a new, far more eurosceptic government. Indeed, Conte warned that if Salvini wants to take a confrontational stand with Europe, it will be his own responsibility, and Conte won’t take part.

According to many, that’s precisely what Salvini wants (read “Europe Is Gunning for Italy, and Italy Is Gunning Right Back“) as the simmering war between Italy and Brussels enters its second, and far more violent, round.

What happens next? On Tuesday, Salvini told RTL radio he’s waiting to see whether Brussels proposes a penalty over Italy’s failure to rein in debt.

Do you think that in a historic moment with youth unemployment at 50% in some Italian regions, when we have to rush to hire doctors and nurses because otherwise the hospitals will be empty, someone in Brussels should — in the name of rules of the past — ask us” to pay a fine, Salvini said on RTL.

“All my energies will be devoted to changing these old and obsolete rules,” Salvini said. “If they want to, the leaders can get around a table and in 15 days write new rules putting jobs center-stage, not little numbers — the new index of well-being must be the unemployment rate.”

“I am going to exchange views with the Italian government on additional measures that might be required in order for them to be compliant with the rules,’’ EU Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici said Tuesday at a conference near Lisbon. “It’s quite likely that we will have an exchange of letters,’’ the commissioner said, adding “I’m not favoring sanctions.’’

The Italian government will cite an improved economic outlook, higher tax revenue and spending cuts in its reply to a letter expected later this week, Corriere della Sera reported Tuesday.

One thing is certain: with growing support and increased clout at home following his election win, Salvini, who once called the Italy-Germany bond spread something he had for breakfast, is firmly set on collision course with the the EU.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/PALESTINE/RUSSIA AND CHINA

It now seems that China and Russia will be against any USA initiative. Today they are against Trump’s Middle east proposal

(courtesy zerohedge)

China & Russia Jointly Boycott Trump’s “Deal Of The Century” Mideast Peace Conference

China and Russia appear to be flexing their muscles in the Middle East, as both announced early this week they would boycott a major economic summit on Israel-Palestine peace sponsored by the United States set for late June in the Bahrain capital of Manama. The White House has touted that the US will unveil economic aspects of its long-awaited Middle East peace plan which aims to achieve economic prosperity for Palestinians, or Trump’s so-called “Deal of the Century”.

Crucially, the Chinese statement emphasized a bilateral Russian-Chinese agreement to boycott the talks. Chinese Ambassador to Palestine Guo Wei on Monday visited the West Bank city of Ramallah, where in a meeting he said, “Boycotting the Bahrain conference comes within the framework of a bilateral Russian-Chinese agreement not to participate in it.”

 

Via Los Angeles Times

During the statements Wei emphasized Beijing’s position “in support of the Palestinian cause and people, including their right to self-determination and the establishment of an independent state of Palestine within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital”.

At the same time Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas commented Monday, lashing out specifically at the White House-backed Bahrain conference for the first time. Abbas said:

Trump’s ‘deal of the century’ will go to hell, as will the economic workshop in Bahrain that the Americans intend to hold and present illusions.

It’s not only a big victory for the Palestinian side, given it’s rallied countries not to show up, but comes amidst the continuing proxy war in Syria where Russia is ramping up airstrikes in support of Damascus over Idlib, as well as the ongoing US-China trade war. However, as Axios notes the decision “is mainly driven by Russian and Chinese tensions with the U.S. rather than by Palestinian interests.”

The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which is the largely secular backbone of the Palestinian National Authority headquartered in the West Bank, has said it wasn’t even notified of the Bahrain conference before it was announced.

 

PA president Mahmoud Abbas, via the AFP

And interestingly, it’s none other that President Trump’s own son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner who will chair the summitAl Jazeera reports:

Early last week, the US announced plans to hold a landmark conference in Manama, where Trump administration officials are expected to unveil economic aspects of the “Deal of the Century”, a US backchannel Palestine-Israel peace plan, the terms of which have yet to be made public.

The Manama meeting will reportedly be chaired by Jared Kushner, US President Donald Trump‘s senior adviser and son-in-law, and Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s Middle East envoy.

Last week, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh slammed the planned meeting for neglecting the core issues of “final borders, the status of Jerusalem, or the fate of Palestinian refugees.”

“Any solution to the conflict in Palestine must be political… and based on ending the occupation,” he said. And separately, Axios reports that PLO secretary general Saeb Erekat was told by both Russian and Chinese foreign ministry officials that both countries “support the Palestinian position regarding the Bahrain conference and therefore will not attend it.”

The Palestinian Authority has boycotted any and all US peace talks following last year’s extremely controversial move to give formal US recognition of Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, further buttressed by the US moving its embassy there. Though a number of American gulf allies have predictably said they will attend, the absence of Russia and China is sure to doom any momentum or attempt at international consensus from the start.

 

END

IRAN/USA

Bolton says that he has no doubt that iranian naval mines were used in that UAE tanker assault last week

(courtesy zerohedge)

Bolton Says “No Doubt” Iranian Naval Mines Used In UAE Tankers Sabotage

Addressing a press conference in Dubai on Wednesday US National Security Advisor John Bolton said Iranian underwater mines were “likely” used in an attack on four international oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz a week-and-a-half ago, including two Saudi vessels, but still didn’t present evidence nor show the precise nature of the damage.

“Iran probably used Iranian naval mines for the UAE oil tankers attacks,” he said while in Abu Dhabi set to attend an emergency summit of gulf leaders to consider the implications of both the May 12 tanker “sabotage” incident near Fujairah emirate and the drone strikes two days following on a Saudi Aramco pipeline and oil pumping station.

 

Two Saudi oil tankers were among four commercial vessels previously sabotaged in waters off the UAE, via Reuters.

Bolton further said there was “no doubt” that Iran ordered the series of aggressive acts, also echoing prior Pentagon statements. “I think it is clear these (tanker attacks) were naval mines almost certainly from Iran,” Bolton said. “There is no doubt in anybody’s mind in Washington who is responsible for this and I think it’s important that the leadership in Iran know that we know.”

The assessment is consistent with what a Norwegian insurance investigators’ preliminary findings into the incident alleged based on analyzing shrapnel from the attacks which was reportedly “similar” to shrapnel recovered from surface drones used off Yemen by Iran-backed Houthi militia. That preliminary report, released within the week after the incident, said it was was “highly likely” the work of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) deploying underwater attack drones.

 

Not only does the US now have a carrier strike group and B-52 bombers on high alert in the Persian Gulf region, but the White House last week signed off on deployment of 1,500 additional troops in response to the heightened Iran threat.

The national security advisor further described the additional military build-up this month the “prudent and responsible” approach which signaled Iran that Washington was ready to give a “very strong” response to any continued action.

 

Photos released by the United Arab Emirates’ National Media Council showing the Emirati-flagged bunkering tanker A. Michel (left) and the Norwegian-flagged oil tanker MT Andrea Victory off the coast of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, Monday, May 13, 2019. via the AP

Bolton said the taken by the United States, which has beefed up its military presence in the region, had made it clear to Iran and its proxies that such actions risked a U.S. response. However, the UAE itself has yet to formally lay blame on Iran or the IRGC for the tanker sabotage incident.

Iran, for its part, has continued to deny any involvement in either the tanker sabotage or drone attack on the oil facility — the latter which is understood to have been immediately carried out by Shia Houthis in Yemen, but which the US has laid blame on Iran for ultimately planning and orchestrating.

Interestingly, even Reuters had to bluntly admit of Bolton’s Wednesday statements: “There was no immediate response from Iran to the comments by Bolton, who did not provide evidence to support his statement.”

END
Iran/Europe/USA
A shot across the bow against Europe as they now threaten them with a loss to the uSA financial system as Europe will begin to use their new “SWIFT” system to evade sanctions by the uSA
(courtesy zerohedge)

US Threatens Europe With “Loss Of Access To US Financial System” Over SWIFT-Evading Iran SPV

It’s going from bad to worse for Europe, whose currency had just hit session lows after Brussels confirmed that Italy faces a massive fine over its debt, when the Euro was hit with a double whammy after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is escalating its battle with “European allies” over the fate of the Iran nuclear accord, and is threatening penalties against the financial body created by Germany, the U.K. and France to shield trade with the Islamic Republic from U.S. sanctions.

According to Bloomberg, the Treasury Department’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, Sigal Mandelker, sent a letter on May 7 warning that Instex, the European SPV to sustain trade with Tehran, and anyone associated with it could be barred from the U.S. financial system if it goes into effect.

As a reminder, last September, in order to maintain a financial relationship with Iran that can not be vetoed by the US, Europe unveiled a “Special Purpose Vehicle” to bypass SWIFT. Back then we predicted that Washington would not be too delighted with this development seeking to undermine the dollar’s reserve status. We were right.

 

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini alongside Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif

“I urge you to carefully consider the potential sanctions exposure of Instex,” Mandelker wrote in the letter to Instex President Per Fischer. “Engaging in activities that run afoul of U.S. sanctions can result in severe consequences, including a loss of access to the U.S. financial system.”

Germany, France and the U.K. finalized the Instex system in January, allowing companies to trade with Iran without the use of U.S. dollars or American banks, allowing them to get around wide-ranging U.S. sanctions that were imposed after the Trump administration abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal last year.

Not surprisingly, a senior admin official behind the eltter said the U.S. decided to issue the threat “after concluding that European officials, who had earlier downplayed the significance of Instex in conversations with the Trump administration, were far more serious about it than they had initially let on.

The official, who asked not to be identified discussing internal deliberations, said the letter was intended to serve as a warning that the U.S. would punish anyone associated with Instex — including businesses, government officials and staff — if they were working to set up a program to help Iran evade U.S. sanctions.

“This is a shot across the bow of a European political establishment committed to using Instex and its sanctions-connected Iranian counterpart to circumvent U.S. measures,” said Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive officer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

When asked to comment on the letter, the Treasury Department issued a statement saying “entities that transact in trade with the Iranian regime through any means may expose themselves to considerable sanctions risk, and Treasury intends to aggressively enforce our authorities.”

At the heart of the latest US move is the argument that Iran and its central bank use deceptive financial practices and haven’t implemented minimum global safeguards against money laundering and terrorism financing, according to Bloomberg.

While it is obvious that the US ire was sparked by the realization – and alarm – that cracks are appearing in the dollar’s reserve status, opponents of Instex argue – at least for public consumption purposes – that the mechanism is flawed because the Iranian institution designated to work with Instex, the Special Trade and Finance Instrument, has shareholders with links to entities already facing sanctions from the U.S.

Meanwhile, during a visit to London on May 8, Mike Pompeo also warned that there was no need for Instex because the U.S. allows for humanitarian and medical products to get into Iran without sanction.

“When transactions move beyond that, it doesn’t matter what vehicle’s out there, if the transaction is sanctionable, we will evaluate it, review it, and if appropriate, levy sanctions against those that were involved in that transaction,” Pompeo said. “It’s very straightforward.”

In 2018, Europe made a huge stink about not being bound by Trump’s unilateral breach of the Iranian deal, and said it would continue regardless of US threats. But now that the threats have clearly escalated, and Washington has made it clear it won’t take no for an answer, it will be interesting to see if Europe’s resolve to take on Trump – especially in light of the trade war with China – has fizzled.

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

 

.

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA/

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1154 DOWN .0014 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.29 DOWN 0.064 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2648   DOWN   0.0011  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3496 UP.0007 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 14 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1154 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 43.77 POINTS OR 0.67% 

 

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 155.10 POINTS OR 0.57% 

 

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.67%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 256.77 POINTS OR 1.21% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 155.10 POINTS OR 0.57%

 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 43.77 POINTS OR 0.67% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.67% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 256.77  POINTS OR 1.21%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1283.20

silver:$14.46

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.23% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from YESTERDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.66 DOWN 10  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.00 UP 5 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.85%  DOWN 7 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.09%  DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.75% DOWN 5   IN basis point yield from YESTERDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.64 DOWN 4  POINTS in basis point yield from YESTERDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 189 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.18%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.82% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1129  DOWN    .0040 or 40 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.34 DOWN .014 OR YEN UP 1  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2616 DOWN .0042 POUND DOWN 42  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 47 basis points to 1.3537

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9145    0N SHORE  (down)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9370  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.0185 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.09%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.22 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.67 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98,18 UP 92  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 8.68  0.08%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 106.32 POINTS OR 1.597%

Paris Cac CLOSED  DOWN  71.95 POINTS 1.75%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 114.30 POINTS or 1.24%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 268.05 POINTS OR 1.21%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.34 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 68.81 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.14  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.44 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 44 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.18 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.88

 

 

BRENT :  69.79

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.21…   VERY DEADLY// AND INDICATIVE OF A HUGE RECESSION COMING UPON US

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.71..VERY DEADLY/ AND INDICATIVE OF A HUGE RECESSION COMING UPON US:

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1164 ( DOWN 29   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.36 DOWN .158 (YEN UP 16 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.94 UP 33 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2655 DOWN 26  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.0272 (AFTER GOV’T INTERVENTION THIS MORNING)

 

the Russian rouble 64.72   DOWN 0.37 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3496 DOWN 59 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9101  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9215 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.16%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 237,92 POINTS OR 0.93%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN  29.66 POINTS OR 0.39%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.45 CLOSED UP 1,60

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.523%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.524

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Stocks Slammed As Credit Cracks, Retail Routed, Yield Curve Craters

The Fed trying to hit its inflation goal…

FOX Sports Kansas City

@FSKansasCity

Let’s just say there was some shaky command on tonight’s ceremonial first pitch at Guaranteed Rate Field. |

Chinese stocks are outperforming Europe and US this week (thanks to a panicking PBOC throwing liquidity at it)…

As buying-panics keep rescuing stocks…

 

European Stocks were uniformly ugly today…

And after a stunningly bad German unemployment print, bunds tumbled even close to record low yields…

 

US markets traded very much in sync today, chopping and popping together with a late-day surge that dragged us “off the lows”…

Dow briefly lost 25k intraday

The buy program hit at around 1530ET – biggest in 3 days…

S&P and Nasdaq both broke below their 200DMA today (joining The Dow and Small Caps already well below it), but the machines did their best to get them both back above that key level…

 

YTD, Nasdaq remains up almost 14% and Dow up around 8%…

 

Semis ended the day marginally higher after almost tagging the bear market (-19.79%) at the open…

NOTE – the machines always ready to fade the opening

The GOOS was cooked… (down a record 28% on the day)…

 

But the entire retail space is getting monkey-hammered…

 

VIX term structure inverted further…

 

HY Credit spreads are blowing out to 4-month highs, eerily tracking last year’s collapse…

 

Global Stocks are starting to roll over but Global Bond Yields are collapsing…

 

And HY risk is leading stocks notably lower…

 

Treasury yields tumbled once again today but a weak 7Y auction sparked some yield give-back…

 

Additionally, as Bloomberg notes, rates on 10-year and 30-year securities hit an additional milestone, retracing over half of their climb from the record lows of 2016 to the multiyear highs in 2018. Having broken through those levels, the yields’ next major technical objectives include the 61.8% retracements, which for the 30-year is fewer than 5 basis points away.

For the 10-year, which rose from 1.318% in 2016 to 3.259% in 2018 and touched 2.2081% today, the 50% retracement was at 2.289%; the 61.8% is at 2.0596%

For the 30-year, which rose from 2.088% in 2016 to 3.465% in 2018 and touched 2.654% today, the 50% retracement was at 2.777%; the 61.8% is at 2.6141%

 

This prompted the yield curve to collapse to new cycle lows…

 

And before we leave bond-land, the ED market is implying more than 2 rate cuts by the end of 2020

 

The Dollar Index extended gains, erasing losses from last Thursday’s spike and dump after ugly PMI data…

 

And PBOC threats to Yuan shorts keep failing…

 

Cryptos dropped and popped today to end marginally higher with Ripple and Litecoin leading the week…

 

Commodities were mixed on the day with PMs modestly higher (despite USD gains), copper clobbered, and WTI doing a huge circle-jerk…

 

WTI Crude collapsed to a $57 handle before going vertical back to unchanged…early weakness was growth scare and rare-earth escalation fears and the spike was seemingly catalyzed by Iran chatter and rumors that MPLX’s Ozark pipeline would restart early on Thursday…

 

The gold-silver ratio has surged to a 26-year high…

As Bloomberg’s Marvin Perez notes, the surge in the gold-silver ratio adds to economic warning signs including the U.S. Treasury yield curve as trade tensions, a weakening Chinese expansion and sluggishness from Europe to Brazil dim global growth prospects. The ratio’s rise comes even as dollar gains have limited demand for gold, often seen as a store of value in times of market turbulence.

The ratio “has surged to generational highs on the sustained weakness in silver that has been caught in the gravity well of base metals, which have suffered on the worsening trade war,” Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets, said by email.

Finally, as Bloomberg macro strategist Mark Cudmore notes, dip-buyers beware!

After a decade of reliable support, the Fed may find it tougher to support flailing U.S. stocks in the months ahead. Rates markets are already pricing in the steepest policy easing since October 2008, so it’ll take something extraordinary for the Fed to deliver a dovish surprise from here.

 

MARKET TRADING/LATE YESTERDAY EVENING/EARLY THIS MORNING

S&P Futures Tumble Below Key Support As Aussie Yield Curve Inverts

While the dollar is giving back some of the day’s gains as Asia opens, US equities and US Treasury yields are extending the day’s trends  – collapsing further…

S&P Futs broke below 2,800 and kept going…

 

To lowest since early March…

 

10Y Yields just touched 2.24%…

 

But the dollar is reversing its US session trend early on as safe haven flows are surging into yen…

 

And Yuan is also weaker…

 

 

And finally, the Aussie yield curve just inverted…

 

 

end
Wednesday morning:

Yield Curve Collapse Continues, Morgan Stanley: It’s Much Worse Than You Think

The Fed (and Larry Kudlow)’s favorite recession indicator is flashing even ‘redder’ this morning with the spread between 3m and 10Y US yields tumbling to -13bps…

 

The most inverted since July 2007.

 

It seems every time The Fed speaks, the yield curve collapse accelerates, and critically, as Jim Grant noted recently, the spread between the 10-year and three-month yields is an important indicator, James Bianco, president and eponym of Bianco Research LLC notes today. On six occasions over the past 50 years when the three-month yield exceeded that of the 10-year, economic recession invariably followed, commencing an average of 311 days after the initial signal.

However, if that’s not worrisome enough for you (and the CNBC plunge protection team has left you believing its different this time), Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson warns that adjusting for QE (and QT) things are considerably worse.

When translating the adjusted Fed Funds rate into the yield curve by making the exact same adjustment to the 3 month T-Bill given the historical nearly 100 percent correlation, the result can be seen below.

 

The light blue line is the unadjusted 10 year – 3 month yield curve and the dark blue line shows what it would look like fully adjusted for QE and QT. The adjusted curve shows record steepness in 2013 as the QE program peaked, which makes sense as it took record monetary support to get the economy going again after the great recession. The amount of flattening thereafter is commensurate with a significant amount of monetary tightening that is perhaps underappreciated by the average investor.

More importantly, unlike the unadjusted curve which only flipped negative in March, the adjusted yield curve inverted last November and has remained in negative territory ever since, surpassing the minimum time required for a valid meaningful economic slowdown signal. It also suggests the “shot clock” started 6 months ago, putting us “in the zone” for a recession watch, according to Wilson. As a result, Morgan Stanley thinks the bond market has it right to suggest the next move for the Fed will be a cut. Incidentally, the equity market is also right, given how defensively it has traded since last summer. Furthermore, the curve inverted about the same time the trade truce happened in late November and has stayed inverted despite all the positive rhetoric earlier this year around a trade deal. This means the US economic slowdown and rising recession risk is happening regardless of the trade outcome

Summarizing Wilson’s “adjusted yield curve” observations:

  1. The adjusted yield curve inverted last December rather than in March, and it’s remained well below 0% even since.
  2. It looks like it may be bottoming which is typically the beginning of the end for the economic cycle.

But apart from that, everything is awesome, “and we’re just a few percent below record highs” right?

end
Midmorning

Opening Ramp Absent As US Stocks Tumble Below Key Support

The S&P 500 has opened below the critical 2,800 level and extended losses below its 100-DMA as bond yields tumble to new cycle lows…

No opening bid for stocks…

Sent the S&P back below key technical support…

While The Dow and Small Caps are already well below key averages, Nasdaq has also just broken below its 100-DMA (testing support at the 200DMA)…

There’s a long way to fall yet to catch down to bond’s version of reality…

 

ii)Market data/

 

end

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Are these guys nuts:  Illinois now pushes for a new “wealth tax” as highe earners will now flee the state with reckless abandon

(courtesy zerohedge)

Illinois Pushes New ‘Wealth Tax’ As High Earners Flee The State In Droves

Cash-strapped Illinois is one step closer to passing a new income tax with the potential to seriously accelerate the exodus of high-earning taxpayers from the most financially dysfunctional state in America.

Lawmakers in the Illinois House of Representatives on Monday approved a constitutional amendment aiming to get rid of the state’s flat income tax, clearing the way for the amendment to be included on the November 2020 ballot for ratification by the voters.Governor JB Pritzker is widely expected to sign it the amendment, which has already been passed by the State Senate.

According to the Democrats who backed it, the tax will help fix the state’s recurring deficits by creating a sorely needed new revenue source: The higher taxes on those earning more than $250,000 would raise more than $3 billion annually while leaving taxes on 97% of the state’s residents unchanged.

There’s no question that more revenue (or, perhaps, less spending) is badly needed. Chronic budget shortfalls, drastically underfunded pensions (to the tune of $134 billion) and $7 billion in unpaid bills have left Illinois’ finances in terrible shape. Illinois’ credit rating being pushed to one level above junk, the lowest in the country, Bloomberg reports.

JBP

Pritzker, who took over from unpopular Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner in January, has tried to spin the tax as a “fair tax”, while ignoring the state’s Republicans, who have accused Democrats of refusing to accept responsibility for the state’s dire fiscal situation, and instead seeking to tax their way out of the problem.

But anybody who thinks the new tax will make a meaningful difference in the state’s finances is sadly mistaken.

As Mark Glennon of WirePoints explained in a post published last month, the $3.4 billion in revenues expected to be raised by the new tax will cover barely one-third of the “hole” in the state’s pension obligations.

Here’s the central message now being blasted across the state by proponents of a $3.4 billion state income tax increase on high earners: “Illinois is in a $3.2 billion financial hole. A Fair Tax could fix that and reverse the damage.” That’s an epic lie. The “hole” isn’t $3.2 billion. It’s roughly a quarter of total revenue according to this work, which is consistent with our own numbers – about $10 billion – and that’s just at the state level. The new $3.4 billion will go down a nearly bottomless pit.

The follow chart shows just how dire Illinois’ pension situation truly is.

JPM

And while the new taxes might make up for some of this shortfall, at least in the short term, once the new taxes start to bite, those wealthy residents saddled with the new tax will almost inevitably start looking for greener pastures – and sun-belt states like Arizona and Florida offer several advantages over chilly Illinois.

end

The trade battle has semi conductors as the epicentre and the UASA is on the losing end

(courtesy zerohedge)

Semiconductors Are The Trade War Epicenter

Back in December 2018, when conventional wisdom was falsely convinced by the handshake between Trump and Xi that the tariff war between the US and China would soon end, we warned that not only is the trade war nowhere near over, far from it, but that semiconductors had “become the central battlefield in the trade war between the two countries. And it is a battle in which China has a very visible Achilles heel.”

Today, SaxoBank’s head of equity strategy, Peter Garnry, not only confirms what we said nearly 6 months ago, but also notes that as the trade war evolves into a technology cold, many industries stand to lose but semiconductor companies are more exposed than anything else. “Add in the rising risk of recession and you’ve got what looks like a perfect storm”, he notes ominously.

His full note is below:

In our recent trade war analysis Are you ready for a Cold War in tech?  we argued that the world has seen the starting signal of a Cold War in technology between the US and China. The most likely outcome of the US ban of Huawei due to national security issues is that the global supply chain will come under attack the next couple of decades. Many industries from transportation, semiconductors, biotechnology, rare earth minerals etc. will all most likely be deemed of national security to both the US and China. If the rivalry intensifies between the two countries the only sensible trajectory from here is a global supply chain separation. US and China will seek to make themselves independent of each other to limit the political downside risk in an escalating trade and technology war

Semiconductors are bleeding and it will continue

Since the US escalated the trade war by increasing the tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods on May 6 semiconductors have been tanking. The industry group can be divided into two groups: semiconductor equipment makers and pure semiconductor manufacturers.

We have devised two custom indices tracking those two industries to measure the impact on the global supply chain the trade war. As the chart below shows the semiconductor industry is hurting from the US-China trade war escalation and our view is that it will continue.

Investors should stay underweight semiconductors. In our last trade war analysis we highlighted the US companies with the biggest exposure to China and the majority of those are in fact US semiconductor companies.

Another reason to be negative on semiconductors is that earnings have most likely topped and valuations will have to reflect this over the next 12 months. We see the risk of recession going up from our standpoint of just three months ago and in the case of a global recession semiconductor companies would be hit the hardest. To make it a perfect storm we also expect it to coincide with the beginning of a new AI winter which will dramatically slow down the growth in semiconductors. 

 

US semiconductor companies have most to lose

If we look at how semiconductor manufacturers are performing based on their geography we see a clear sign that US companies stand to lose the most, together with South Korea. If the global supply chain in the semiconductor industry is being reconfigured US semiconductor companies will lose short-term revenue in China and will have to invest in new manufacturing facilities in other countries.

Chinese semiconductor companies will on the other hand be more directly supported by the Chinese government and thus win out relatively speaking. But what about WTO rules about state support? In our view the WTO framework is at risk of being obsolete as the US is clearly steering away from multilateral trade deals towards bilateral deals. In this world order China would not be accountable for state sponsorship of semiconductors inside WTO.

European semiconductor companies could win relatively in the short-term but they face the risk that Europe eventually choose the US over China in the new political future. The caveat here is that Europe needs strong exports to offset weak domestic growth and here China offers more upside potential than the US economy. European politicians are entering a minefield over the next decade as they feel squeezed between the diverging interests of the US and China.

US equities have broadly outperformed

Outside the casualties in semiconductors the US equity market has in fact outperformed the five countries running the biggest trade surplus against the US. Our trade war ETF basket shows that US equities have outperformed by 22%-points since early 2018 when the trade war broke out. In the markets view trade surplus countries are more vulnerable. Only time will tell whether this is in fact true or not.

SWAMP STORIES

Comey is one big nut job:  here he states that there was no coup and Trump and his supporters are stating nothing but lies on him and his upper echelon of cohorts

(courtesy zerohedge)

Comey Slams Trump’s FBI Probe: ‘There Was No Coup, These Are Lies, Dumb Lies’

 

While Trump’s Attorney General William Barr oversees a probe into the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation, in which the Obama-era intelligence community has been accused of gross violations of the law – including spying and possible entrapment, fired FBI Director James Comey has been on the defensive, claiming to have “no idea what the heck” people like Barr are talking about in regards to allegations of malfeasance.

Comey’s latest attempt to untarnish his image comes in the form of a Tuesday afternoon op-ed in the Washington Postresponding to Thursday allegations by the President that Comey, former acting FBI director Andrew McCabe, former FBI lawyer Lisa Page and former FBI agent Peter Strock had “unsuccessfully tried to take down the wrong person.”

“That’s treason, Trump said at a White House event. “They couldn’t win the election, and that’s what happened.”

Embedded video

TPM Livewire@TPMLiveWire

Trump accuses Comey, McCabe, Strzok, and Page of “treason”

Trump’s comments were backed by Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), who said on Sunday that statements by FBI agents investigating Trump sounded “an awful lot like a coup, and it could well be treason.”

Nonsense, insists Comey – who writes of Trump in his op-ed: “We must call out his lies that the FBI was corrupt and committed treasonthat we spied on the Trump campaign, and tried to defeat Donald Trump. We must constantly return to the stubborn facts.”

Comey continues: “We investigated. We didn’t gather information about the campaign’s strategy. We didn’t “spy” on anyone’s campaign. We investigated to see whether it was true that Americans associated with the campaign had taken the Russians up on any offer of help.”

The ‘investigating’ – as we now know, included the FBI sending in longtime spook Stefan Halper and an FBI agent posing as Halper’s assistant, who gained the trust of Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos under false pretenses. Months earlier, Papadopoulos had been seeded with the rumor that Russia had negative information on Hillary Clinton by a self-described member of the Clinton Foundation.

In the words of the CIA’s former counterintelligence chief James Olson “I’d call that spying.

In the words of former Secret Service agent Dan Bongino, It was entrapment.

Comey continues in his op-ed: 

By late October, the investigators thought they had probable cause to get a federal court order to conduct electronic surveillance of a former Trump campaign adviser named Carter Page. Page was no longer with the campaign, but there was reason to believe he was acting as an agent of the Russian government. We asked a federal judge for permission to surveil him and then we did it, all without revealing our work, despite the fact that it was late October and a leak would have been very harmful to candidate Trump. Worst deep-state conspiracy ever.

But wait, the conspiracy idea gets dumber. On Oct. 28, after agonizing deliberation over two terrible options, I concluded I had no choice but to inform Congress that we had reopened the Clinton email investigation. I judged that hiding that fact — after having told Congress repeatedly and under oath that the case was finished — would be worse than telling Congress the truth. It was a decision William Barr praised and Hillary Clinton blamed for her loss 11 days later. Strzok, alleged architect of the treasonous plot to stop Trump, drafted the letter I sent Congress.

And there’s still more to the dumbness of the conspiracy allegation. At the center of the alleged FBI “corruption” we hear so much about was the conclusion that Deputy Director Andrew McCabe lied to internal investigators about a disclosure to the press in late October 2016. McCabe was fired over it. And what was that disclosure? Some stop-Trump election-eve screed? No. McCabe authorized a disclosure that revealed the FBI was actively investigating the Clinton Foundation, a disclosure that was harmful to Clinton. -James Comey

Of course, McCabe reportedly authorized the self-serving leak in response to media pressure that he had gone easy on Clinton – not to harm her campaign. Meanwhile according to McCabe, a senior Obama DOJ official called him and was “very pissed off” that the FBI was still pursuing the Clinton Foundation when the DOJ had considered the case dormant.

In closing, Comey writes: “But go ahead, investigate the investigators, if you must. When those investigations are over, they will find the work was done appropriately and focused only on discerning the truth of very serious allegations. There was no corruption. There was no treason. There was no attempted coup. Those are lies, and dumb lies at that. There were just good people trying to figure out what was true, under unprecedented circumstances.

END

Full scale war in the intelligence community as Christopher Steel refuses to cooperate with AG Barr and Durham

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fake Dossier’-Creator Steele Refuses To Cooperate With AG Barr’s Probe

Having been practically a recluse since since the ‘fake dossier’ alleging links between Donald Trump and Russia that he produced was published by BuzzFeed in January 2017, Christophe Steele has reportedly refused to cooperate with AG Barr’s probes.

Reuters reports that, according to a source with knowledge of the situation, Steele, a former Russia expert for the British spy agency MI6, will not answer questions from prosecutor John Durham, named by Barr to examine the origins of the investigations into Trump and his campaign team.

However, buried deep in Reuters story is the same source claiming that Steele might cooperate with a parallel inquiry by the Justice Department’s Inspector General into how U.S. law enforcement agencies handled pre-election investigations into both Trump and Clinton.

In the past Steele has cooperated, willingly being interviewed twice in the special counsel’s investigation, and submitting answers in writing to the Senate Intelligence Committee, but apparently this time he is not willing.

With Steel refusing to cooperate, Joe DiGenova, former U.S. Attorney warned Monday on WMAL radio’s Mornings on the Mall radio show,

this is full scale war,” adding that “we are heading toward a gigantic, gigantic fight…

The intelligence community, which includes the FBI, is in full resistance to disclosing what they did during the presidential campaign.”

Sara Carter reports that DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz is expected to release his report on the FBI’s handling of the investigation into Trump within weeks.

These investigations will hold those in the intelligence and law enforcement community accountable, depending on what evidence is discovered. This reporter is hearing from sources that it will be scathing. Those who abused their power and weaponized the tools meant to target America’s enemies against a political opponents should be held accountable.

end

We will be following this: Mueller is to make an unexpected statement on the Russian probe at 11 am

THE INTERVIEW AT 11 AM WAS A “NOTHING BURGER”

(courtesy zerohedge)

Robert Mueller To Make Unexpected Statement On Russia Probe At 11am

For the first time since he was appointed in May 2017 to lead the investigation into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to sway the 2016 election, Special Counsel will make a public statement about the investigation that infamously ended earlier this year without finding evidence of collusion while declining to make a finding on obstruction.

Mueller

The statement is set for 11 am ET at the DoJ, and won’t be followed by a Q&A.

Notably, the statement comes one day after the Guardian published excerpts from Michael Wolff’s upcoming book claiming that Mueller had written up a three-count indictment of Trump on obstruction charges, but ultimately decided not to pursue it.

The statement also comes as Congressional Democrats have tried and – so far, at least – failed to entice Mueller to testify publicly before a House Committee about the investigation. The House Judiciary Committee has been trying to obtain the unredacted Mueller report and the underlying documents, again, with little success.

There have also been reports of tension between Mueller and AG William Barr: Mueller and his team reportedly sent Barr a letter after the latter released a summary of the Mueller report’s findings claiming that the summary risked undermining public confidence in the probe, in addition to being misleading.

Mueller has been infamously tight-lipped since the investigation began: In fact, the closest he has come to making a public statement was telling MSNBC to piss off after reporters ambushed Mueller and his wife after an Easter Mass, which occurred a few days after the Mueller report’s release disappointed Russiagate conspiracy theorists.

A spokesman for the special counsel insisted that such an indictment never existed, even as Wolff and the Guardian claimed to have seen the document.

Both the Dems and President Trump must be on edge here, since nobody knows what Mueller is going to say. Though CNBC’s Eamon Javers reports that the White House knew the statement was coming: “We were advised he may make a statement,” a senior official said. It’s unclear whether the Judiciary Committee was alerted to the statement ahead of time.

Notably, AG Barr is in Alaska right now, the AP reports.

end

Democrats are now put into a tough spot after Mueller is goading them into the impeachment process

(courtesy zerohedge)

Mueller Puts Democrats In Tough Spot After Wednesday Speech

Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Wednesday remarks have put new pressure on House Democrats to launch impeachment proceedings against President Trump – an option that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has repeatedly warned would be a trap going into the 2020 election due to the fact that the GOP-held Senate would “vindicate” Trump even if the House impeached.

Mueller, who officially resigned from the DOJ to return to private life – said that he wouldn’t appear before Congress to discuss the findings from the Justice Department’s multi-year, $25 million investigations into the 2016 election.

I hope and expect that this will be the only time I will speak to you about this matter,” Mueller told reporters in Washington, adding “the report is my testimony” and “I would not provide information beyond that which is already public.”

Of note, Mueller said that he didn’t question Attorney General William Barr’s handling and release of the Special Counsel’s report, contradicting statements by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and turncoat Republican Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI) – the latter of whom said Barr “deliberately misrepresented key aspects.”

Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸

@JackPosobiec

Robert Mueller specifically stated he had no questions about AG Barr’s handling of releasing the OSC Report – this proves Pelosi and Amash lied about Barr

To impeach, or not to impeach 

By specifically pointing out that the special counsel didn’t levy charges at Trump due to longstanding DOJ policy not to prosecute a sitting president, Mueller effectively laid out a path to impeachment for Democrats to follow.

It wasn’t lack of evidence. It was DOJ policy” tweeted Rep. Val Demings (R-FL).

Rep. Val Demings

@RepValDemings

Special Counsel Robert Mueller just said that “charging the president with a crime was not an option we could consider” under DOJ policy.

It wasn’t lack of evidence. It was DOJ policy.

He said that this “deserves the attention of every American.” He’s right. Congress must act.

Mueller’s refusal to testify also puts House Democrats in a tough spot. With a growing number of Democratic lawmakers pushing for leadership to launch impeachment proceedings, Pelosi and House Judiciary Chairman Rep. Jerrold Nadler of New York are now left to decide whether Mueller gave them enough ammunition to move forward without his testimony, which Pelosi said would have been useful.

Phil Mattingly

@Phil_Mattingly

Pelosi on Mueller testimony: “Yes, I think it would be useful for him to testify before Congress,”

Rep. Eric Swalwell told CNN that “Seeing is believing…hearing Bob Mueller raise his right hand, testify to Congress, seeing the news capture that, that would be quite illuminating for most Americans.” In other words, Mueller’s refusal to testify will now be blamed for robbing Democrats of their opportunity to impeach, if they choose not to move forward with that option.

Embedded video

CNN Politics

@CNNPolitics

House Judiciary Committee member Rep. Eric Swalwell on hearing Mueller’s testimony: “Seeing is believing…hearing Bob Mueller raise his right hand, testify to Congress, seeing the news capture that, that would be quite illuminating for most Americans” https://cnn.it/2EFP59W

In Wednesday comments, Nadler was far more confrontational than Pelosi – saying that “All options are on the table and nothing should be ruled out” in terms of impeachment, adding “not event the president of the United States is above the law.”

Staging a press conference Wednesday afternoon in New York, Nadler was similarly vague, sidestepping questions about whether he will compel Mueller’s testimony with a congressional subpoena.

Mr. Mueller told us a lot of what we need to hear today,” Nadler said.

Before Mueller’s remarks, at least 37 House Democrats were on record backing the launch of an impeachment inquiry into Trump. Afterward, Reps. Betty McCollum (D-Minn.) and Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) added their names to the list, though most Democratic lawmakers responded by holding firm to Pelosi’s favored approach of continuing with investigations without making the leap to impeachment. –The Hill

“We must remain committed to aggressively investigating the president’s wrongdoing and we will not rest until the American people have answers,” insisted Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA), vice chairwoman of the Democratic Caucus – who apparently presumes guilt until proven innocent.

So Democrats are left with a special counsel who won’t testify, and who just gave the left plenty of ammunition to impeach since Mueller implied that Trump may have committed crimes. And if they do launch impeachment proceedings, they might reach the Senate just in time for Trump to be vindicated in the court of public opinion.

end

And then this; Pelosi and Schumer refuse to endorse impeachment procedures after the Mueller statement

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pelosi, Schumer Refuse To Endorse Impeachment After Mueller Statement

Now that a few hours have passed, the subtext of Robert Mueller’s first-ever public statement about the Russia probe is starting to sink in for both Democratic presidential contenders and the press (though comparing Mueller to a professor chiding his students for not ‘doing the reading’, like Buzzfeed did, misses the point).

Blaze media critic Robert Eno hit the nail on the head when he pointed out in a tweet that Mueller didn’t just restate the findings from his report: His statement was larded with hints appearing to goad Democrats into pursuing impeachment.

Rob Eno

@Robeno

This whole reason Mueller gave this press conference was to give the media this soundbite.

It was calculated.

He’s signaling his wish for impeachment.

This message wasn’t lost on the contenders for the 2020 Democratic nomination, many of whom swiftly demanded that the House begin impeachment proceedings immediately.

Elizabeth Warren

@ewarren

Mueller’s statement makes clear what those who have read his report know: It is an impeachment referral, and it’s up to Congress to act. They should.

Elizabeth Warren

@ewarren

Mueller leaves no doubt:
1) He didn’t exonerate the president because there is evidence he committed crimes.
2) Justice Department policy prevented him from charging the president with any crimes.
3) The Constitution leaves it up to Congress to act—and that’s impeachment.

Cory Booker

@CoryBooker

Robert Mueller’s statement makes it clear: Congress has a legal and moral obligation to begin impeachment proceedings immediately.

Kamala Harris

@KamalaHarris

What Robert Mueller basically did was return an impeachment referral. Now it is up to Congress to hold this president accountable.

We need to start impeachment proceedings. It’s our constitutional obligation.

Julián Castro

@JulianCastro

Mueller made clear this morning that his investigation now lays at the feet of Congress. No one is above the law—Congress should begin an impeachment inquiry.

Even the Biden campaign said impeaching Trump ‘may be unavoidable’.

And AOC, who isn’t seeking higher office this election cycle, reiterated her calls for impeachment and also accused Mueller of “playing a game of Taboo with Congress,” which is actually a fairly apt comparison.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

@AOC

Mueller is playing a game of Taboo with Congress.

His word is “impeach.”

Matthew Miller

@matthewamiller

Replying to @matthewamiller

Bob Mueller today: “And second, the opinion says that the Constitution requires a process other than the criminal justice system to formally accuse a sitting President of wrongdoing.”

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

@AOC

That part ⬇️

David Cicilline

@davidcicilline

Replying to @davidcicilline

The next step is for the House Judiciary Committee to open an impeachment inquiry to formally begin consideration of whether or not articles of impeachment should be filed.

But despite growing support for impeachment, members of the Democratic Congressional leadership sounded conspicuously restrained.

Pelosi

Nancy Pelosi’s statement on Mueller’s remarks was surprisingly restrained. Though the leader of the Democrats in the House acknowledged that the president should be investigated, she stopped short of calling for impeach:

It is with the greatest respect for Special Counsel Robert Mueller and the deepest disappointment in the Department of Justice holding the President above the law, that I thank Special Counsel Mueller for the work he and his team did to provide a record for future action both in the Congress and in the courts regarding the Trump Administration involvement in Russian interference and obstruction of the investigation.

Special Counsel Mueller made clear that he did not exonerate the President when he stated, ‘if we had confidence that the President clearly did not commit a crime, we would have said so.’ He stated that the decision not to indict stemmed directly from the Department of Justice’s policy that a sitting President cannot be indicted. Despite Department of Justice policy to the contrary, no one is above the law – not even the President.

The Special Counsel’s report revealed that the President’s campaign welcomed Russian interference in the election, and laid out eleven instances of the President’s obstruction of the investigation. The Congress holds sacred its constitutional responsibility to investigate and hold the President accountable for his abuse of power.

The Congress will continue to investigate and legislate to protect our elections and secure our democracy. The American people must have the truth. We call upon the Senate to pass HR 1, the For The People Act, to protect our election systems.

We salute Special Counsel Robert Mueller and his team for his patriotic duty to seek the truth.

Schumer’s response was similarly restrained.

Chuck Schumer

@SenSchumer

Robert Mueller made clear today that the Russians interfered in our elections, the wellspring of our democracy.

Chuck Schumer

@SenSchumer

If Pres Trump & Congress don’t do anything, it’ll be worse in 2020

Yet inexplicably, Sen McConnell & Senate GOP are blocking bipartisan election security legislation, despite Dems’ repeated calls to protect our democracy from interference—by Russia or any other foreign adversary

Chuck Schumer

@SenSchumer

Robert Mueller’s statement also makes clear that Congress has a right—we believe an obligation—to continue our constitutionally mandated oversight without interference or stonewalling and follow the facts wherever they may lead.

There was at least one member of the Democratic leadership who appeared open to impeachment: Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler said ‘all options are on the table’ when asked about impeachment, adding that Mueller has demonstrated that Trump clearly lied.

The message is clear: Despite growing support for moving ahead with impeachment proceedings among some of the 2020 candidates, Pelosi, Schumer and the rest of the leadership are sticking with their plan to forego impeachment proceedings to try and avoid inflaming Trump’s base before the election.

Pursuing impeach very well might turn out to be a political trap for the Dems, but if Pelosi & Co. continue to push back against it, they could be setting themselves up for a showdown with left-

end

SWAMP STORIES/KEY STORIES/KING REPORT

COURTESY OF CHRIS POWELL OF GATA)

AG Barr Battles Intel Community And FBI. Illegal Surveillance Had Been Going On For Years.

If the full extent of the abuse is made public the powers granted these agencies powers could be scaled back and those who allegedly abused their power could face prosecution,” one former senior intelligence official told SaraACarter.com.  “This is full scale war between the Attorney General of the United States and believe it or not, another FBI director who thinks he’s James Comey,” Joe DiGenova, former U.S. Attorney said Monday… “We are heading toward a gigantic, gigantic fight,” he added. “The intelligence community, which includes the FBI, is in full resistance to disclosing what they did during the presidential campaign.”

    DiGenova told this reporter Tuesday that the FISC’s opinion in 2017 reveals thatimproper surveillance has been happening since 2012…   DiGenova was referring to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court Judge Rosemary Collyer April 26, 2017 memorandum and opinion. In her opinion she chided the abuses in surveillance in the intelligence community. On example, was Collyer’s referral as to how the Director of National Intelligence (NCTC) in 2012 “was granted access to raw information from terrorism cases obtained under Titles I and III and Sections 704 and 705(b) of the Act, subject to expanded minimization procedures.”…

https://saraacarter.com/ag-barr-battles-intel-community-and-fbi-illegal-surveillance-had-been-going-on-for-years/

 

‘A Hard Rain’s Gonna Fall’ on Obama’s Bad Cops and Spies

The skies are growing dark and increasingly ominous for dirty officials at the top of Obama-era law enforcement and intelligence agencies…

    Barr won’t be deterred. He did not return for a second stint as AG to pad his résumé or protect Donald Trump. He returned to clean out the Augean Stables

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/05/28/a_hard_rains_gonna_fall_on_obamas_bad_cops_and_spies_140429.html

 

British ex-spy [Steele] will not talk to U.S. prosecutor [Durham] examining Trump probe origins

Steele also cooperated with Mueller’s investigative team, voluntarily submitting to two interviews in September 2017. He also gave written testimony to the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee in August 2018, the source said… [Apparently Steele fears something now that he did not hear before.]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-steele/british-ex-spy-will-not-talk-to-u-s-prosecutor-examining-trump-probe-origins-source-idUSKCN1SY20K

 

@paulsperry_: Ex-FBI Director James Comey never used a grand jury to investigate the Russian interference/collusion “crimes” he said he was investigating, raisingsuspicions he was more interested in spying on the Trump camp & transition than solving alleged crimes related to Russia

 

Ex-US Atty for DC Joe DiGenova says the John Huber Investigation of Clinton Foundation is a farce; it was never started and didn’t call the two key whistleblowers.  Reports say evidence was lost twice.

 

Some major US cities are experiencing an epidemic of crime because mayors and district attorneys are ‘de-policing’ by refusing to charge or incarcerate people that commit serious, even violent, crimes.

 

De Blasio wants teens charged with robbery, assault freed without bail

https://nypost.com/2019/05/27/de-blasio-wants-over-three-times-more-teen-criminals-freed-without-bail/amp/

 

Attachments area

-END-

WILL SEE YOU WEDNESDAY NIGHT

H

 

 

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