JUNE 14/BANKERS REPEL GOLD AND SILVER’S ATTEMPT TO BREAK THROUGH HUGE RESISTANCE OF $1350 GOLD AND $15.00 SILVER…FEAR NOT FOR DAY TWO’S ATTEMPT WILL COMMENCE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY WE WILL PIERCE THEIR HUGE RESISTANCE AND IN SO DOING BLOW UP THEIR DERIVATIVE BOOK/GOLD ADVANCES BY ONLY $1,10 AFTER BEING UP BY ALMOST 16 DOLLARS IN THE MORNING//SILVER IS DOWN 9 CENTS//TRUMP BLAMES IRAN FOR THE 2 TANKER HITS IN THE GULF//LUONGO’S COMMENTARY ON SHALE OIL/GAS PRODUCTION//RIOTING IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

 

GOLD: $1341.15  UP $1.05 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.82 DOWN 9 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1341.75

 

silver:  $14.83

today was our first attempt at breaking the gold $1350 barrier for gold and $15.00 for silver.  I know that many of you are discouraged dealing with the criminal bankers.

Lately it has been becoming increasing difficult for the bankers to whack because as they supply huge amounts of paper gold/silver, there are some on the other side

buying the paper but this time turning to the bankers and asking for physical delivery.  The only time they did not have to worry about that is Friday as London is already put to bed

and only paper exists.  Their nightmare returns on Monday…so do not be discouraged.  Demand for physical is going through the roof!

 

 

 

YOUR DATA…

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 33/106

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,339.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/13/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 06/17/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
323 H HSBC 4
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 33
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
686 C INTL FCSTONE 14 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 72 61
800 C MAREX SPEC 9
905 C ADM 11 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 106 106
MONTH TO DATE: 1,694

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 106 NOTICE(S) FOR 10600 OZ (0.3297 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1694 NOTICES FOR 169,400 OZ  (5.2690 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JUNE

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 310 for 1550,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8250 UP 33 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8217 UP 88

 

 

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE A STRONG  SIZED 2976 CONTRACTS FROM 230,580 UP TO 233,556 ACCOMPANYING THE 11 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.( LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR GOLD . HOWEVER WE ARE WITNESSING A RISE IN SPREADING ACCUMULATION BY THE BANKERS IN SILVER)..TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JUNE, 1219 FOR JULY. 60 FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1279 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1279 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1279 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.39 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 11 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

1.560 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

27,573 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 27,573 CONTRACTS) OR 137.87 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2757 CONTRACTS OR 13.78 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JUNE:  137.87 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 19.68% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1008.62    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2976 WITH THE 11 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1279 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS WILL RESUME THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES FOR SILVER ONCE THE JUNE CONTRACT COMMENCES IN EARNEST….

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 4255 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1279 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2976  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  11 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.91 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.082 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 152% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 1.560 MILLION OZ//
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE NO DOUBT HAD VERY STRONG ACTIVITY OF  SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN SILVER TODAY AS TOTAL OI ROSE SHARPLY WITH THE SMALLISH GAIN OF 4 CENTS. 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A  STRONG 8931 CONTRACTS, TO 511,471 WITH THE  $6.60 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS STOPPED AND THESE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY MORPHED INTO SILVER AND THEY ARE INTO THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF THEIR OPERATION.   

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3812 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 3812 CONTRACTS, DEC>  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 511,471.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,743 CONTRACTS: 8,931 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 3812 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 12,743 CONTRACTS OR 1,274,300 OZ OR 39.63 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $6.60 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 39.63  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING COPIOUS SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 101,624 CONTRACTS OR 10,162,400 OR 316.09 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,164 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 316.09 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 316.09/3550 x 100% TONNES =8.90% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2,593.99 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 8,931 WITH THE PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK ON YESTERDAY($6.60)) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 3812 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 3812 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 12,743CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

3812 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 10,176 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 39.63 TONNES). ..AND THIS INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF  $6.60 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO PRESENCE OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD  ///TODAY/

 

 

 

we had:  106 notice(s) filed upon for 10,600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SILVER SLV:

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2976 CONTRACTS from 230,580 UP TO 233,556 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 1219 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 60, FOR SEPT. 0  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1279 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2976 CONTRACTS TO THE 1279 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 4490 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 21.28MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY AND NOW 1.570 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE.

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 11 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1279 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.77 POINTS OR 0.99%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 176.36 POINTS OR 0.65%   /The Nikkei closed UP 84.89 POINTS OR 0.40%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED  UP .22%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9240 /Oil DOWN TO 52.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.30 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9240 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9317 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

Beijing slams Washington to interfering into the extradition bill

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China/USA/

This morning the Hong Kong interbank rate soars to a record high of 2.42%.  Two reasons for this:

1. they wanted to crush the shorts

2 they want to prevent dollars from leaving their shores.

( zerohedge)

 

ii)Beijing slams Washington to interfering into the extradition bill

(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)EUROPE

Not good for global growth in Europe as Apple sales are crushed as Huawei outshines Apple

(zerohedge)

 

ii) ITALY

Tom Luongo supports Mish Shedlock’s take on the new Italian Mini BOT.  He outlines how the Triumvirate will try and take down the government but that will aid Salvini in getting out of the Euro which is their ultimate aim.
(courtesy Tom Luongo)

iii)UK

This may turn out to their very harmful to Brussels as its looks like Boris Johnson is a shoo in for Prime Minister. He wants a hard  Brexit and he even does not want to pay any of bills provided by the EU for payment.
(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

i)IRAN

The USA releases a ‘smoking gun” showing the Iran’s navy trying to remove mine fragments from the Tanker hull

( zerohedge)

ii)The Japanese owner denies the ship was hit by a mine and instead he claims that the crew saw “flying objects” before the attack..maybe a torpedo?

( zerohedge)

iii)Trump claims that the tanker attack has Iran written all over it..Tehran claims it is a false flag.

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)Now with all of the above news, Michael Every puts it in proper prospective

(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

v)TURKEY

The Turkish lira slides after Erdogan vows he will retaliate against uSA sanctions after Turkey receives its S 400 defense shield

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

A very important commentary on oil from Tom Luongo who correctly points out that our shale boys are bleeding badly.  Their cash flows are negative.  Thus, as the economy is slowing down, this will put a glut of oil remaining in the USA with no markets.  Shale boys cannot discount as their costs are too high.  Trump thinks he is winning by exporting oil..think again.

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)VENEZUELA/

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)This is a fun story:  Martin Armstrong who originally stated that he had no rare gold coins, strangely he is going to court to retrieve those gold coins stolen from his mother’s home. Te bankruptcy court is also involved as they want these rare coins.

(Bloomberg)

ii)I have been highlighting this to you on several occasions: India has been importing a massive amount of silver due to its low price

( Ted Butler/GATA)

 

iii)Both Schiff and Turk see a chance for gold to finally break the 1350 dollar barrier.

( Kingworldnews.Schiff/Turk/GATA)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/

 

II)MARKET TRADING

 

ii)Market data

a)Industrial production rebounds from last month’s decline

(zerohedge)

b)this is not what the Fed wants to hear: Inflation expectations are plunging…they need higher inflation to pay off their debts
( zerohedge)

c)Retail sales recover a bit last month(zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Graham Summers asks:  if everything is under control why is the Fed talking about permanent QE and Zirp/Nirp.. Find out why

(courtesy Graham Summers)

b)Wednesday night, saw riots in  Memphis after a USA Marshall shot a robber.  Thursday witnessed 24 officers wounded in gunfire

( zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
end
LET US BEGIN:

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 8931 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 511,471 WITH THE RISE OF $6.60 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3812 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 0 CONTRACTS , AUG; 3812 CONTRACTS: DEC: 0   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3812 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 12,743 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3812 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 8931 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  12,743 CONTRACTS OR 1,274,300 OZ OR 39.63 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of JUNE and here the open interest stands at 304 CONTRACTS as we GAINED 7 contracts.  We had  71 notices filed yesterday so we surprisingly gained another 78 contracts or 7800 oz of gold that will stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the comex as they will now try their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here.  The next contract month is the non active month of July and here the OI ROSE by 43 contracts UP to 1140 contracts.  The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI ROSE by 7374 contracts UP to 380,860.

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 106 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  10,600 OZ. (0.3297 TONNES)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2976 CONTRACTS FROM 230,580 UP TO 233,556 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A  11 CENT RISE IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.  HERE WE HAVE 1 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 1 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED  YESTERDAY SO WE LOST 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THIS GUY MORPHED INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EXHAUSTIVE EFFORT IN TRYING TO OBTAIN METAL..

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY.  HERE THE OI FELL BY 6033 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 128,794.  WE GAINED 84 CONTRACTS OF OI FOR AUGUST TO STAND AT 816. THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 7729 CONTRACTS UP TO 59,734 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 347,891  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  216,535  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JUNE/GOLD

June 14/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz  

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
106 notice(s)
 10,600 OZ
(0.3297 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
198 contracts
(19800 oz)
0.6158 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1694 notices
169,400 OZ
5.2690 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Everybody else: nil  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ a tiny amount  arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had 0 withdrawal:

 

.

total gold withdrawals; nil   oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JUNE 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 71 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 18 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1694) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JUNE. (304 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (106 x 100 oz per contract) equals 189,200 OZ OR 5.8849 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1694 x 100 oz)  + (304)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (106 x 100 oz )which equals 189,200 oz standing OR 5.8849 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JUNE.

We GAINED 78  contracts or an additional 7800 oz will stand as these guys refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.08 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 5.8849 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  324,118.255 oz or  10.08 tonnes (we again had a huge adjustment yesterday of gold leaving the customer and entering the dealer//this is nothing but gold vapour)
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,675,170.092 oz 238.73 tonnes

 

 

 

OF OPEN INTERESTS FOR THE UPCOMING JUNE 2019 CONTRACT VS JUNE 2018

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE INITIAL JUNE 2018 CONTRACT WE HAD A HUGE 32.152 TONNES STAND. (VS 5.8849 TONNES TODAY/JUNE 2019)

HOWEVER BY MONTH’S END ONLY 21.56 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.  AS YOU CAN SEE, THE CROOKS ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME FORMAT OF MORPHING VS LAST YEAR AS ONLY GOLD VAPOUR SEEMS TO BE PHYSICALLY PRESENT AT THE COMEX AND LONGS MUST TRY THEIR LUCK IN LONDON.

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF June

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
june 14 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 2169.824 oz
Delaware

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,208,796.960 oz
JPM
Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 310 contracts

1,550,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  599,665.210  oz

ii)into Loomis: 609,131.740

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.761 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.16% of all official comex silver. (151.8 million/302.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,208,796.950  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of Delaware:

2169.824 oz was removed

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 2168.824  oz

 

we had 0 adjustments :

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.119 million

total dealer + customer silver:  302.662 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR  nil oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 310 x 5,000 oz = 1,550,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (1) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 310(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE( 1) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 1,555,000 oz of silver standing for the JN contract month.

WE LOST 1 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EFFORT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZfor the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  123,263 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 100,854 CONTRACTS..(we no doubt had considerable spreading activity as they are now starting to accumulate in silver)

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 100,854 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 504 million  OZ 72.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.52% June 14/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.04% to NAV (june 14/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.52%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.22 TRADING 12.72/DISCOUNT 3.80

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

june 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

june 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

jUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP  $8.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY/STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP 0.85 TODAY: A MONSTROUS PAPER GAIN OF 16.44 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.65 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE, A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 30: WI6H GOLD UP $6.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.81 TONNES

MAY 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FORM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738,81 TONNES

MAY 22//WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: WE HAD A GOOD 1.52 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 739.69 TONNES

 

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: A SURPRISE 2.00 TONNES WERE ADDED  TO THE GLD GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.17 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 A HUGE 2.96 TONNE DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.17 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.50: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.23 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $15.40 TODAY: STRANGE! A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES OF GOLD (TO TAME GOLD’S RISE TODAY)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JUNE 14/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 764.10 tonnes

*IN LAST 611 TRADING DAYS: 169.66 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 511 TRADING DAYS: A NET 4.03 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

june 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

jUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 9 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZE DEPOSIT OF 630,087 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.396 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.434 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 422,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ/

May 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ///

MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/

MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 311.616 MILLION OZ

MAY 21: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ

MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.185 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY VAULTS:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ//

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV  INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ//  THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 13//WITH SILVE5 DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ…

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

 

JUNE 14/2019:

 

Inventory 316.775 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.03/ and libor 6 month duration 2.32

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .29

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.07%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.30

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.23

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Breaks Above $1,350, €1,200 and £1,060 – Risk Of War In The Middle East

 

GoldCore Note

Gold prices jumped another 1% today, surpassing the key $1,350 level for the first time since April last year. Gold made strong gains in all currencies including the euro and the pound, rising above €1,200 and £1,060 per ounce respectively.

Gold in EUR – 1 Year

Poor economic data from China, the UK, the EU and the United States, and a significant escalation in tensions in the Middle East is seeing an increase in safe haven demand.

Spot gold climbed 1% to $1,356 per ounce by late morning in Europe. It reached its highest level since April 11, 2018 at $1,358.04 in early European trading.

Frequently, gold prices go lower as gold futures get sold in volume as U.S. markets open. However, as the drums of war with Iran bang louder and given the scale of the tensions in the Middle East, gold should see more hedging and safe haven demand today as we head into the weekend.

Gold bullion has gained another 1.2% so far this week and the precious metal is on track for its fourth consecutive weekly gain which bodes well technically.

Silver also gained 1% to $15.05, its highest in a week, while platinum gained 0.7% to $813.08.

Palladium has surged 7% this week and rose another 0.4% to $1,450/oz today. Palladium is on track for its best week in nearly 9 months.

LBMA Gold Prices (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

13-Jun-19 1335.80 1335.90, 1054.21 1052.69 & 1182.85 1184.81
12-Jun-19 1336.65 1332.35, 1049.27 1045.76 & 1179.99 1177.26
11-Jun-19 1322.65 1324.30, 1040.53 1041.30 & 1168.96 1170.42
10-Jun-19 1328.60 1328.60, 1046.94 1048.66 & 1175.41 1175.94
07-Jun-19 1334.30 1340.65, 1049.16 1052.14 & 1184.19 1184.60
06-Jun-19 1336.65 1335.50, 1053.15 1051.17 & 1189.62 1185.92
05-Jun-19 1337.75 1335.05, 1052.01 1049.22 & 1185.38 1184.99
04-Jun-19 1323.60 1324.25, 1045.51 1043.77 & 1177.47 1177.26
03-Jun-19 1313.95 1317.10, 1039.47 1042.35 & 1175.99 1175.38

News and Commentary

Gold Extends Advance to Third Straight Session on Fed Rate-cut View, Geopolitical Ripples

Gold Gains as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Provide Support

European Stocks Trade Lower Amid Middle East Tensions

Tanker Attacks Reignite Oil Fear Premium, Prices Could Spike to $80

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rise; Imported Inflation Subdued

Watch video here

JEFFREY GUNDLACH : ‘I Am Certainly Long Gold’

Beijing May Face Consequences if Chinese President Refuses to Meet With Trump at G-20 Threatens Kudlow

The Fed Has No Choice But to Return to Ultra-Low Interest Rates

With Tariffs Trump is Destroying Dollar and U.S. Power – Salinas Price

A Morgan Stanley Economic Indicator Just Suffered a Record Collapse

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

This is a fun story:  Martin Armstrong who originally stated that he had no rare gold coins, strangely he is going to court to retrieve those gold coins stolen from his mother’s home. Te bankruptcy court is also involved as they want these rare coins.

(Bloomberg)

Cult economist jailed for hiding rare coins says they’re his now

 Section: 

By Chris Dolmetsch and David Glovin
Bloomberg News
Thursday, June 13, 2019

The 58 rare coins at the center of two federal lawsuits are exceptionally valuable.

Now a bankrupt company’s receiver wants them.

An antique dealer wants them.

… 

And so does Martin Armstrong, a self-taught economist with a cult following who spent years behind bars for what the U.S. said was a $700 million Ponzi scheme and for allegedly hiding assets, including what may be those very same coins.

Armstrong’s story is one of Wall Street’s more bizarre tales — and the newest chapter makes it even more absurd. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-13/cult-economist-jailed…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

I have been highlighting this to you on several occasions: India has been importing a massive amount of silver due to its low price

(courtesy Ted Butler/GATA)

Ted Butler: India provides more evidence of silver price manipulation

 Section: 

9p ET Thursday, June 13, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Increasing demand for silver in India, silver market analyst Ted Butler writes today, is more evidence of price suppression and market manipulation in the West. For Indians are extremely price-sensitive about their monetary metals, Butler notes, and they wouldn’t be increasing their purchases of silver if they didn’t recognize that it is very underpriced now compared to gold.

Butler’s commentary is headlined “India Reacts to Depressed Silver Prices” and it’s posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:

http://silverseek.com/commentary/india-reacts-depressed-silver-prices-17…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

India Reacts to Depressed Silver Prices

Theodore Butler

|

June 13, 2019 – 9:28am

 

Several recent articles have highlighted a surge of silver imports to India, prompting me to take a closer look. India has always been a big buyer of silver and gold, befitting the traditions and culture of the country with the world’s second largest population. The population of India, more than 1.3 billion citizens, is now only about 50 million less than that of China. Combined, both countries make up 35% of the total world population (7.7 billion) and have always been large buyers and holders of gold and silver. Together, India and China absorb close to 50% of total world gold and silver mine production.

One big difference between India and China is that the gold and silver buying in India is largely a grassroots phenomenon, emanating from the general population due to deep-rooted customs and traditions; where the buying from China is predominantly from official sources (similar to the gold buying by Russia). To me, this makes the gold and silver buying from India more “free market” and price-sensitive in nature because the more participants in any market, the freer the market is by definition. The many tens and even hundreds of millions of gold and silver buyers from India make the markets there the freest of all.

India has always played a vital role in gold and silver. I remember how my longtime friend and silver mentor, Izzy Friedman, more than 40 years ago, as he was deciding whether to make a major investment in silver in the mid-1970’s, actually flew to India to see for himself if the stories of great silver hoards about to flood the market should prices move higher (from $4 or $5) were true. Izzy saw plenty of silver, but none so closely held in large concentrated quantities to pose a market threat. I believe that’s still the case today.

Indian gold and silver buyers are quite price-sensitive and unlike the typical buyer in the West, Indians tend to buy more when prices are low and less when prices are high. Gold and silver flows into India are one-way affairs – what flows in stays there, never to leave the sub-continent. Gold prices are closer to the highest they have been over the past 5 or 6 years, while silver prices are closer to the lowest they have been over that period, resulting in the silver/gold price ratio widening out to the highest it has been in 25 years.  I reviewed the import data from India over the past 15 years with that in mind. For silver, I relied on the Silver Institute’s World Survey and for gold, a straight Google search for Indian imports from 2004 to 2018.

Here’s what I found. The people of India, according to the import data, are buying more silver relative to gold than ever before. It’s not that gold imports are down sharply, it’s much more that silver imports are up sharply. I broke the data from the past 15 years into two segments – the 9 years from 2004 to 2012 and the six years from 2013 to 2018. As a reminder, by comparing the imports of gold and silver on a per ounce basis, all outside influences are neutralized, like currency and overall economic conditions. For instance, the great Indian demonetization of 2016, resulted in sharp declines in the imports of both gold and silver. That’s the objective beauty of making like-kind comparisons – it filters out peripheral issues.

For the 9 years 2004 to 2012, the silver/gold price ratio averaged 56 to 1 and India imported an average of 26.5 million ounces of gold and 85 million ounces of silver each year – or 3.2 times more ounces of silver than gold. Over the next 6 years 2013 to 2018, the silver/gold price ratio widened out to 73 to 1, with silver getting progressively cheaper relative to gold (except in 2016). Over the most recent six years, gold imports fell slightly to an average annual 25.2 million oz, while silver imports surged to 188 million oz annually, up 120% over the yearly average of the prior 9 years. Where imports of silver compared to gold in ounces were 3.2 times from 2004 to 2012, they jumped to 7.5 times from 2013 to 2018.

In the most recent full year of import data, 2018, India imported 24.4 million ounces of gold, the second lowest amount in 9 years, while silver imports were 224 million ounces, the second highest total in 15 years. The amount of silver ounces imported to India last year was more than 9 times the amount of gold imported, the highest level ever. The average silver/gold price ratio for 2018 was 82 to 1, the cheapest silver had been to gold in 15 years, so it’s not surprising that Indian buyers reacted as they did. Of course, while full year data is not available for 2019, the silver/gold price ratio has averaged 86 to 1 year to date, with very recent readings of 90 to 1.

Considering that the silver/gold price ratio has continued to widen out since 2018, exceeding 90 to 1, making silver even cheaper compared to gold, there is every reason to expect that India’s imports of silver have continued to grow, both on an absolute and relative basis compared to gold. What this means, aside from confirming the price-sensitivity (and good sense) of the Indian buyer, is that prices do have consequences. It’s often said that the cure for low prices is low prices because low prices discourage production and encourage demand.  The record of India’s silver imports would seem to be clear confirmation of that.

The main price consequence of the surge in silver imports to India is as a direct result of the COMEX price suppression and manipulation of the price. The collective investment reaction in the US and West to the low price of silver (or any investment asset) is not to buy – that’s our investment culture, for better or worse.  The collective reaction in India is markedly different and in a very real sense is the ultimate confirmation that silver prices have been manipulated; as what else could prove more conclusively that silver prices were artificially suppressed than the surge in demand from India?

In fact, had there been no surge in demand from India, that would be proof silver wasn’t manipulated in price.  What else could possibly explain the surge in silver demand from tens of millions of Indian buyers if not that they felt prices were depressed – not just on an absolute basis, but relative to gold as well? I’m not suggesting that the many millions of Indian buyers are at all aware of the COMEX price manipulation; they just know that silver is unusually cheap and undervalued relative to gold.

So here we have compelling new proof that silver prices have been manipulated – not that more proof was needed. By depressing the price of silver, JPMorgan may have succeeded in discouraging western investment demand and cornering the physical market for its own accumulation, but has also inadvertently stimulated Indian demand. As a result, a brand new Catch-22 has emerged in silver. As and when JPMorgan decides to let silver prices fly to the upside, it is reasonable to assume that Indian demand would fall off, but as that demand falls off, the higher prices will jumpstart western demand. If the right hand doesn’t get you, then the left hand will. Should JPM choose to prolong the silver price suppression, the imports to India should continue to surge and with the concurrent decline in world silver mine production, a physical crunch becomes inevitable. Prices do have consequences.

Ted Butler

June 13, 2019

www.butlerresearch.com

END

Both Schiff and Turk see a chance for gold to finally break the 1350 dollar barrier.

(courtesy Kingworldnews.Schiff/Turk/GATA)

At KWN, Schiff and Turk see chance for gold to break out

 Section: 

9:19p ET Thursday, June 13, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

King World News tonight publishes comments about the gold market from fund manager Peter Schiff and GoldMoney founder James Turk.

Schiff says: “The Fed’s balance sheet ticked up last week to $3.85 trillion. Perhaps it has already seen its lows. When the Fed goes back to quantitative easing, the balance sheet will balloon to $10 trillion even quicker than it did to $4.5 trillion. But next time the Fed’s exit-strategy bluff won’t work. Got gold?”

… 

Turk says gold’s price likely will be capped next week because there is a meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. But he adds, “There is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to buy dips” and “the momentum guys are not even in there buying yet.”

The KWN report is headlined “Peter Schiff and James Turk — Possibility of a Major Breakout in the Gold Market” and it’s posted here:

https://kingworldnews.com/peter-schiff-and-james-turk-possibility-of-a-m…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

This morning, Ronan Manly reports that gold has broken records in multiple currencies, including the gold in Br. pounds and Cdn dollar

(courtesy Ronan Manly/Bullion star)

 

Ronan Manly: Gold price breakout in multiple currencies

 Section: 

10:10p ET Thursday, June 13, 2019

Dear

Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star’s Ronan Manly reports tonight that gold is performing spectacularly in many developed-nation currencies, including the euro, British pound, Australian dollar, Singapore dollar, and Swedish krona, and seems to be climbing steadily by the measure of its last obstacle, the U.S. dollar.

… Manly writes: “Only time will tell, but if the U.S. dollar gold price continues to take out ‘resistance’ and more up through the technically important area between $1,350 and $1,370, and then above $1,370, this would bring U.S. dollar gold to a three-year high. Thirty dollars or so above the $1,370 level would put gold at a five-year high above $1,400 and would bring in a lot of attention from the sidelines.”

As well, presumably, as a lot of attention from the U.S. Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, the Bank for International Settlements, the People’s Bank of China, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Where do they want the U.S. dollar gold price to go, and what will they do to push it there?

You can count on one thing: Mainstream financial news organizations will never ask.

Manly’s analysis is headlined “Gold Price Breakout in Multiple Currencies” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/gold-price-breakout-in-mul…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END



iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end
GOLD//SILVER TRADING TODAY:

 

end

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9240/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9317   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 28.77 POINTS OR 0.99%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 176.36 POINTS OR 0.65%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 84.89 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 97.15/Euro FALLS TO 1.1262

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.13/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.23/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 52.85 and Brent: 62.24

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.26%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.29% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.49%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.55: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.70

3k Gold at $1354.00 silver at: 15.05   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 24/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.32

3m oil into the 52 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.23 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9954 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1210 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.26%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.07% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.58%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8917..

 

“Sea Of Red”: Global Stocks Tumble After Dismal Chinese Data, Broadcom Bust

Risk on, risk off.

One day after traders were greeted by a sea of green – on potential world war news – we are back to the sea of red as global stocks struggled and safe haven bets were back in play on Friday with German bond yields plumbing record lows after the latest dismal Chinese data dump sparked fears about the health of the global economy and concerns of a new U.S.-Iran confrontation intensified (which, by the way, was somehow bullish for risk yesterday).

Beijing May activity reported overnight was very weak and painted a fairly gloomy picture of the world’s second largest economy as the trade war with the United States starts to bite. May industrial output growth slowed to a more than 17-year low, the weakest since since 2002, and well below expectations, while fixed-asset investment also fell short of forecasts. Retail sales growth accelerated and surprised to the upside however.

The full breakdown:

  • Industrial Output for May: 5.0%, est. +5.4% (range +5.1% to +6.4%, 35 economists), down from +5.4% last month.
  • May retail sales +8.6% y/y; est. +8.1% April +7.2%
  • Jan.-May fixed-asset investment excluding rural households +5.6% y/y; est. +6.1% (range +5.2% to +6.5%, 34 economists). Jan.-April +6.1%

Commenting on the data, Goldman said “May activity growth was very weak” noting that IP month-over-month annualized growth was around 2.6% based on our seasonal adjustment, which was higher than April but still at a weak level. The shifting Labor Day holiday distorted IP, and to a lesser extent FAI, data on the downside, but the impacts were limited as there was a difference of only one vacation day which could not fully explain the extent of the data weakness. The impacts of shifting holidays tend to be larger on retail sales data. April retail sales data was exceptionally weak and the reversal of the distortion was the main driver of the rebound in retail sales in May. The slowdown in property transactions year-over-year growth was partially due to an unfavorable base effect, but sequentially transactions also cooled in April-May as the government marginally tightened property policies in a few cities such as Changsha, Xi’an, Beijing etc.

As a result, expectations for more stimulus in China continue to grow as the Sino-U.S. trade dispute threatens to escalate into a full-blown trade war that many fear could push the global economy into recession.

“The Chinese data was disappointing, especially the industrial output numbers,” said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets. “That’s given bond markets additional momentum.”

The dismal Chinese data saw yields on German 10-year Bunds — one of the safest assets in the world — fall to fresh record lows, the yield dropping as low as -0.27%.

U.S. Treasury yields were also grinding lower, last seen just above 2.06%, the same level they hit one week ago when the dismal jobs print virtually assured a rate cut by the Fed. Safe-haven bond yields have already fallen in recent days amid rising speculation about monetary easing by major central banks. Meanwhile, Spain bond yields have fallen for the first time below 0.5%.

Speaking of Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index fell as much as 0.8%, hitting a session low, with 18 out of 19 sectors dropping, led lower by tech and banks. The Tech sector index was biggest drag on the Stoxx 600, down 1.9%, on contagion from U.S. chip giant Broadcom, which cut guidance and warned of a slowdown in demand due to trade tensions and the U.S. ban on Chinese tech and mobile phone company Huawei Technologies. European tech shares led the indexes lower, with semiconductor companies Infineon, AMS, STMicroelectronics, Siltronic and Dialog Semiconductor all dropping between 2%-3% after Broadcom outlined the impact of a total halt in sales to Huawei.

“The sales warning from Broadcom is also weighing on markets this morning as it suggests that both semiconductor and auto sectors are under pressure worldwide,” said Market Securities strategist Christophe Barraud in Paris, adding that expectations for a rebound were now shifting from the second half of this year to 2020. Given both these sectors are key for world trade, it’s not good news for trade.”

The Stoxx banks index slumped 1.1% as European curves continue to flatten; defensive utilities sector is the only sector that posts gains, up 0.3%

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, with markets in the region mixed. While Japan’s Topix Index gained 0.3%, shares in Hong Kong and China dropped. In its third-day of losses, the Hang Sang Index fell another 0.7% as calls increased for the city’s leader to delay an extradition bill. China was the the region’s worst-performer, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite falling 1% after the above mentioned ugly economic data dump hit overnight. India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index declined 0.5% amid cash-crunch woes.

Over in the US, index futures were in line for a lower open, with the S&P e-mini pointing to a 0.2% fall.

With the week ending, all eyes now turn to the Fed’s June 18-19 meeting which will show investors if the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy stance matches market expectations for a near-term rate cut. A Reuters poll showed a growing number of economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates this year although the majority still expect it to stay on hold.

“There is a large degree of uncertainty going into next week’s FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Committee) meeting as market reaction will differ significantly depending on whether the Fed hints toward easing policy,” said Shusuke Yamada, chief Japan FX and equity strategist at Bank Of America Merrill Lynch. “A wait-and-see mood is likely to begin prevailing in the markets ahead of the FOMC.”

Elsewhere, growing worries about a new U.S.-Iranian confrontation after two attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday added to the unhappy mood, resulting in an oil price surge. Washington blamed Iran, but Tehran bluntly denied the allegation. But U.S. and European security officials as well as regional analysts left open the possibility that Iranian proxies, or someone else entirely, might have been responsible. The attacks set crude prices on a roller coaster ride, with Brent futures slipping 0.2% to $61.18 per barrel. Brent surged 2.3% on Thursday after the Norwegian- and Japanese-owned tankers both experienced explosions.

In the latest development, the US Navy Destroyer USS Mason was en route to the area where the 2 oil tankers were attacked, while it added it has no interest in engaging in new conflict in the Middle East and that it is ready to defend US interests as well as freedom of navigation. Furthermore, the US released video footage of Iranian military removing an unexploded mine from the Japanese tanker that was attacked in the Gulf of Oman.  Iran categorically rejected the US unfounded claim regarding tanker attacks according to Iranian mission to the UN, while there were also comments from Iran Foreign Minister Zarif that US allegations against Iran without evidence shows the B team is moving to Plan B of sabotaging diplomacy.

In FX, the safe haven yen advanced after data showed China industrial output slowed in May to its weakest pace since 2002. The dollar’s index against a basket of six major currencies was little changed initially, but spiked to session highs after China warned the US not to get involved in Hong Kong matters. The Swedish krona led gains in the Group-of-10 currencies after Swedish inflation rose faster than expected, while the euro stayed close to $1.13 where hefty expiries rollover Friday. The euro was steady at $1.1282 while the greenback inched down 0.2% to 108.19 yen. The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell on Friday as bets on interest rate cuts undermined demand and Group of 20 meeting later this month sidelined investors.

Expected data include retail sales, industrial production and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. No major company is scheduled to report earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,891.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 378.55
  • MXAP down 0.07% to 155.50
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 507.16
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 21,116.89
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,546.71
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 27,118.35
  • Shanghai Composite down 1% to 2,881.97
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 39,551.96
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,554.00
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,095.41
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.1 bps to -0.262%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.1280
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 7.6 bps to 1.989%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 4.6 bps to 0.497%
  • Brent futures down 0.2% to $61.22/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.8% to $1,352.75
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.13

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • President Donald Trump is still waiting for a response from Chinese President Xi Jinping about meeting to restart trade talks, economic adviser Larry Kudlow said while warning Beijing may face consequences it if refuses the invitation
  • The Trump administration blamed Iran for attacks on two oil tankers near the entrance to the Persian Gulf, escalating tensions between the two rivals despite denials from officials in Tehran and a lack of public evidence for the U.S. claim. U.S. releases video it says is of Iran removing mine from ship
  • Rivals to be Britain’s next prime minister are holding private talks over joining forces in an attempt to stop the pro-Brexit favorite, Boris Johnson, running away with the contest, people familiar with the matter said
  • China’s industrial output growth slowed to the weakest pace since 2002, highlighting the headwinds the economy is facing as it grapples with the tariff war with the U.S.
  • Hong Kong girded for another mass march against a China- backed extradition bill Sunday, as the city’s leader, Carrie Lam, faced new calls to withdraw the legislation after clashes between protesters and police
  • Allies of Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam began questioning her tactics as lingering tensions prompted lawmakers to postpone debate on a controversial extradition bill until at least next week
  • White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders is leaving the Trump administration after a turbulent tenure marked by attacks on the media, dissemination of false information and the near-disappearance of the daily press briefing

Asia equity markets traded mixed as they awaited Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, where retails sales beat on expectations, nevertheless Asia-Pac indices remained mixed as risk-off sentiment prevailed. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was lifted by strength in commodity-related stocks but with gains capped due to weakness in the largest weighted financials sector amid anticipation of a lower rate environment and with AMP shares heavily pressured after it received compliance orders from the financial regulator APRA. Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) was also underpinned by the mining sectors which saw Chiyoda as the biggest gainer, while Sony shares were also bolstered after activist investor Loeb called on the Co. to spin off its semiconductor business. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.7%) was subdued and Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) was indecisive amid trade uncertainty and after the PBoC’s efforts resulted to a net weekly injection of CNY 65bln vs. last week’s CNY 320bln net drain. Finally, 10yr JGBs followed suit to the recent upside in T-notes, while the BoJ was also present in the market with today’s Rinban operation heavily concentrated in the belly of the curve.

Top Asian News

  • Indonesia on Alert as Court Hears Prabowo’s Election Challenge
  • As Trade War Hits, China Factories See Slowest Growth Since 2002
  • Japan Display Is Likely to Miss Friday Deadline for Bailout
  • Turkey Work Underway to Counter U.S. Sanctions, Official Says

Major European indices are mostly lower [Eurostoxx 50 -0.4%], with the exception of the SMI (+0.2%), as the region temporarily side-lines the prospect of Fed rate cuts and succumb to the risk-off sentiment as a result of rising US tensions with China, Russia, Germany, Iran, Turkey and India. Sectors are largely in the red with defensive stocks faring better, gains in the healthcare sector are keeping the SMI afloat. Meanwhile, IT names plumbed the depths with the sector heavily underperforming after a warning from Broadcom regarding a slowdown in global chip demand. As such, Infineon (-5.1%), STMicroelectronics (-4.0%), Dialog Semiconductor (-3.1%), ASML (-3.0%) and ASM (-2.7%) are all near the foot of the Stoxx 600. On the flipside, Scor (+2.6%) and Royal Mail (+2.0%) are in positive territory amid positive broker moves.

Top European News

 

  • Kier Tumbles After Report Some Credit Insurers Withdraw Cover
  • Buffett’s Berkshire, Engie Drive Europe’s Bond Sales Bonanza
  • Finance Chiefs Agree on Euro-Area Budget But Skirt Funding
  • Spain’s Sabadell Is Said to Weigh Sale of Consumer Finance Unit

In FX, the Dollar index continues respect resistance above the psychological 97.000 level (on a closing basis) and ahead of the recent range top at 97.370, as safer currency havens outperform amidst heightened geopolitical and global trade tensions. Moreover, the Dollar remains capped by growing expectations that the Fed will flag a rate cut next week following a run of macro data pointing to a more pronounced slowdown in the economy and benign inflation that that challenges the transitory theory put forward by Powell and other at the last FOMC gathering. On that note, impending retail sales and ip reports could cement an ease in July if not this month. DXY currently relatively contained within a 97.154-96.942 range.

  • JPY/SEK – The Yen has nudged back up towards 108.00 vs the Buck, and is only really lagging behind Gold in the aforementioned risk-off climate plus the Swedish Krona in the G10 stakes due to firmer than forecast CPI and CPIF metrics that keeps the Riksbank on track to raise the repo. However, Usd/Jpy is still encountering underlying bids ahead of the big figure and may also be propped by decent option expiry interest between 108.00 and 108.15 (1 bn). Back to Scandinavia, Eur/Sek has extended post-inflation data declines through technical support at 10.6500 (10 DMA) and briefly below 10.6400 vs 10.7100+ at one stage.
  • NZD/AUD – The major losers yet again, and with the Kiwi now underperforming after NZ manufacturing PMI only just held above the 50.0 threshold. Nzd/Usd has slipped under 0.6550 towards 0.6525 and Aud/Nzd is pivoting 1.0550 even though the Aussie has relinquished the 0.6900 handle and chart support a pip below amidst another round of more aggressive RBA policy easing calls (NAB now predicting 3 cuts in 2019 from 2 previously and RBC reckons the OCR will be lowered to 0.5% by May next year).
  • EUR/CAD/CHF/GBP – All lower against the Greenback as well, albeit to a lesser extent compared to the Antipodean Dollars and to varying degrees. The single currency is retreating further from 1.1300 where massive expiries run off (4.4 bn) and the Loonie has reversed to test support ahead of 1.3350 having lost some of Thursday’s oil-powered momentum as crude prices simmer down after the post-tanker attack spike. Meanwhile, the Franc has pared gains across the board with Usd/Chf at the upper end of a 0.9966-26 band and Eur/Chf back above 1.1200 on SNB reflection (renewed and reemphasised convictions to keep NIRP or even cut deeper and continue intervention). Elsewhere, Cable has is now pivoting 1.2650 with independent bearish impulses from the ongoing UK political hiatus and resultant suspension of any real Brexit developments, but BoE Governor Carney may provide some additional impetus later.
  • EM – No respite for the Lira it seems as Usd/Try rallies through 5.9000 to 5.9300+ and not far from chart resistance around 5.9500, including a 50% Fib of the retracement from last month’s highs to earlier June lows. The latest catalyst, warnings from Turkey’s Foreign Ministry that any US sanctions will be reciprocated.

The energy complex is poised for a weekly loss as the two tanker attacks off the coast of Oman only provided brief reprieve for the declining prices, with trade woes and rising US supply outweighing concerns in the Middle East. This morning also saw the release of the IEA monthly report in which the agency cut their outlook on oil demand growth by 100k BPD, which is in-fitting with the OPEC (70k BPD) and EIA (160k BPD) downgrades to oil demand growth for 2019 released earlier in the week. The report also noted that OPEC supply in May fell to the lowest since 2014 due to Iranian sanctions, in which Iranian oil production fell to the lowest since the 1980s. WTI and Brent are lower on the day and currently pressured by the continuation of the risk aversion. Elsewhere, gold has continued to advance as the yellow metal benefits from the risk-off sentiment, with prices now above the key USD 1350/oz ahead of strong trend-line resistance at USD 1358.50/oz. The rally in gold has spilled into other precious metals with silver hitting one-week highs and platinum gaining almost 1%. In terms of base metals, copper remains subdued amid the broad risk tone whilst Dalian iron ore touched new record highs as Chinese steel mills kept demand steady for the metal

US Event Calendaar

  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.6%, prior -0.2%; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior -0.2%
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.5%; Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.1%, prior -0.5%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 98, prior 100; Current Conditions, est. 109, prior 110; Expectations, est. 92, prior 93.5
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.5%, prior 0.0%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Bloomberg have a competition on their terminals to predict every match in the Cricket World Cup. Unbeknown to me, my co-authors Craig and Quinn entered. I didn’t realise it was on until too late. Craig, like myself, is a cricket fan. Quinn is an American who knows nothing about cricket and a week or so ago made himself a laughing stock on our team by predicting that around half the games in this tournament would be ties. For those not familiar with one day cricket, a tie probably occurs every several hundred games. However two weeks into the tournament Quinn is near the top of the leaderboard as what we didn’t appreciate is that many of the games he marked as a tie would be rained off and giving him technically the correct answer. He has therefore had an uncanny knack of predicting our awful weather this past week. So for those that want a UK weather forecast, please have your umbrella to hand between these dates as Quinn has predicted another series of ties around then: June 22-26.

Predicting the daily swing in oil prices is proving to be one of the main challenges in markets at the moment. Indeed one day after Brent dipped -3.72% and to a five-month low, it recovered much of these losses in a single swing yesterday after bouncing back +2.37%. The catalyst was the attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman, the second attack in a month near the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, which has led to fears that accelerated hostilities in the region are to return. The US Secretary of State blamed Iran for the attacks, in comments that President Trump subsequently retweeted, and overnight the US released a video demonstrating Iran’s involvement, saying an Iranian boat removed an unexploded mine from a US ship. US officials also suggested that a military response has not been ruled out. Separately, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that in March, the US imported the lowest amount of crude oil from OPEC countries since March 1986, continuing a decade-long trend of lower US crude oil imports from the OPEC countries.

Unsurprisingly anything linked to oil benefited yesterday. The S&P energy sector rose +1.25% which carried the S&P 500 to a +0.41% gain, while the NASDAQ and DOW closed +0.57% and +0.39% respectively. The STOXX 600 finished +0.16%, with the DAX outperforming (+0.44%). Despite the geopolitical noise, the VIX traded fairly flat at 15.75. Interestingly, govies were actually better bid too with 2y and 10y Treasuries ending -4.7bps and -3.0bps lower respectively, sending the former to its lowest level since December 2017. So the simultaneous equity and rates rally was back in full force. In Europe 10y Bund (-0.5bps) and OAT (-0.2bps) yields edged lower, but the real action was in the periphery. Spanish 10y yields slid -3.1bps to a new all-time low of 0.537%, while BTPs rallied -7.7bps following strong demand at the 20-year auction. The latter move came despite increased political tension in Italy, where Deputy PM Salvini reportedly told his supporters to “be ready” for a possible early election.

One of the drivers for the rally in European bonds has been expectations for more accommodative policy from the ECB. DB’s Mark Wall has updated his forecasts in this note to reflect the latest macro information and the recent update to DB’s Fed call. In short, two trends are developing in ways that will push the ECB toward easing: escalation in the trade wars and a change in the relative monetary policy stance now that the Fed looks likely to cut rates this year. Mark now expects the ECB to cut its deposit facility rate at the September meeting, and anticipates 2020 growth to decelerate to 1.0% as a result of the anticipated slowdown in US growth. Similarly, DB’s China team has revised down their 2019 and 2020 growth forecasts by 0.1 and 0.2pp respectively, to 6.2% and 5.8%, also mostly as a function of lower expected US growth. If the trade war evolves as we expect, the PBoC is likely to ease rates policy and allow the yuan to weaken to as far as 7.3 versus the dollar. Zhiwei’s full China update is available here .

This morning in Asia equity markets are mostly trading lower. Although Japanese markets have pared back opening losses to trade higher, with the Nikkei +0.29%, elsewhere the story is less positive. The Hang Seng (-0.57%) is currently on track for a third consecutive move lower, while the Shanghai Comp (-0.26%) and the Kospi (-0.25%) have also lost ground. We should note that we’re still due to get China’s May activity indicators data. Bloomberg suggests that the data is out at 8am BST. For what it’s worth, fixed asset investment and industrial production are both expected to hold steady, however retail sales is expected to rise in year over year terms. This will probably dictate much of today’s mood. The other breaking news overnight that we’re just seeing is the AFP news agency reporting that French finance minister Le Maire has said that EU ministers have agreed to President Macron’s proposal for a Eurozone budget, although with no other information at present the question for markets will be how substantive this agreement actually is. President Macron has been previously disappointed by the reluctance of a number of northern European countries to set up a Eurozone budget as large as he’d like.

Back to yesterday and while there wasn’t a great deal of other news to digest for markets, we did have the first Conservative Party leadership contest which revealed overwhelming support for Boris Johnson in his bid to become the next PM. He took 114 votes with Jeremy Hunt a reasonable way back in second place at 43 votes. Gove, Raab, Javid, Hancock and Stewart all made it through to the next round which is due to take place next Tuesday, and where candidates will need to secure 33 votes (10% of the total). Brexiteers Leadsom and McVey were eliminated yesterday along with Harper. The BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg tweeted last night that Health Secretary Hancock was “mulling over” whether to continue in the race, having come in 6th place with 20 votes. It’s clear from the first round that Johnson is the clear frontrunner and although history tells you frontrunners often don’t win the Tory leadership race it’s hard to see him being toppled outside of an “event” that derails his campaign. Sterling bounced a bit following the results before closing a touch weaker at -0.10%.

In US politics, no developments were immediately market-moving, but the White House did say that “we’re moving in that direction” with regards to a Trump-Xi meeting at the G20. Top economic advisor Larry Kudlow said that “President Trump has indicated his strong desire for a meeting (…) if the meeting doesn’t come to bear, there may be consequences.” So that event, set to start two weeks from today, will be key. Away from the China conflict, the passage of the USMCA deal (to replace NAFTA) still looks precarious, as Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland said that talks are “on the right track” but stopped short of giving a timeline for ratification.

As for the data, in the US the latest weekly claims reading ticked up to 222k and a little more than expected to a five-week high. The import price index meanwhile declined more than expected in May, by -0.3% mom at both the headline and core level. Previous dollar strength appeared to explain much of the weakness in non-petrol prices.

Prior to this, in Germany there were no final surprises in the May CPI report where the headline reading was confirmed at +0.3% mom and +1.3% yoy. Elsewhere, industrial production for the Euro Area in April was confirmed as declining -0.5% mom, as expected.

To the day ahead now, where this morning we’ll get the final May CPI revisions for France and Italy. Bisecting that data is the China May activity indicators while in the US this afternoon the main highlight should be the May retail sales report, while May industrial production, April business inventories and the preliminary June University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey are also due. Away from that we’re due to hear from the BoE’s Carney this afternoon.

 

 

 end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.77 POINTS OR 0.99%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 176.36 POINTS OR 0.65%   /The Nikkei closed UP 84.89 POINTS OR 0.40%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED  UP .22%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9240 /Oil DOWN TO 52.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.30 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9240 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9317 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

SOUTH KOREA

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

 

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

China/HONG KONG/

This morning the Hong Kong interbank rate soars to a record high of 2.42%.  Two reasons for this:

1. they wanted to crush the shorts

2 they want to prevent dollars from leaving their shores.

(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)EUROPE

Not good for global growth in Europe as Apple sales are crushed as Huawei outshines Apple

(courtesy zerohedgE)

Apple Smartphone Sales Crash In Europe As Huawei Outshines Competition

A new report from the International Data Corporation’s (IDC) latest Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker shows Chinese smartphone makers are solidly outperforming Apple and Samsung across European markets.

Huawei and Xiaomi, two of China’s top smartphone producers, recorded YoY unit sale increases for all regions across Europe in 1Q19, while all other major smartphone companies experienced declines.

Huawei’s unit shipment in Europe jumped 66% YoY in 1Q19, while Xiaomi increased 33% YoY. During the same period, Samsung’s unit shipments dropped 7%, while Apple’s unit sales plummeted by 23%.

“In brands, Huawei continued to make incremental advances, and so did Xiaomi, while Apple had a tough quarter, with its 23% market share across Europe the lowest Q1 result in five years,” said Marta Pinto, research manager at IDC EMEA.

“The market has been changing in the last few quarters in relatively predictable ways,” said Pinto. “Shipments have slowed as consumers hold on to devices for longer, Apple has been challenged with its latest devices, and Chinese manufacturers have been making strides each quarter.”

Simon Baker, program director at IDC EMEA, said, “Europe has been a global focus of vendor concentration in recent quarters, with some of the smaller players under a lot of pressure. Looking ahead, it is no longer possible to see clear trends as before. The blacklisting of Huawei in the U.S. on May 16 is creating so many unknowns, and uncertainty is the new keyword in the industry as global geopolitics — unconnected directly with Europe or EMEA — becomes the single most important factor in how the market will develop over the rest of the year.”

Overall EMEA shipments reached 83.7 million units in 1Q19, a 3% drop YoY — confirming the smartphone slowdown isn’t just gaining momentum as the world continues to cycle down through summer, but Chinese smartphone makers have displaced Apple and Samsung as the top players in Europe.

END
Tom Luongo supports Mish Shedlock’s take on the new Italian Mini BOT.  He outlines how the Triumvirate will try and take down the government but that will aid Salvini in getting out of the Euro which is their ultimate aim.
(courtesy Tom Luongo)

What Happens If Salvini Goes Mini-BOT On The EU?

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Since the idea was first floated there has been rampant speculation about how/when Lega Leader Matteo Salvini would introduce the Mini-BOT parallel currency to assist Italy’s fiscal situation.

Mike Shedlock has a great post on the subject that brings up a number of points about this subject. Well worth the read. Let’s go back and start at the beginning.

The mini-BOT or Mini-Bill of Treasury, is a small denomination bond that the treasury can sell which can be used by businesses and people as an alternative domestic currency.

As Mike brings up, without mandating their usage Italy skirts the letter of EU law prohibiting any country from issuing its own currency.

The big question is, will there be a bid for these mini-BOTs? Very likely. Relative to the Italian economy the euro is over-valued, it is too strong. But the euro would be under-valued relative to a mini-BOT trading at par to the euro.

And Gresham’s Law tells us that under-valued currencies are driven from the market and hoarded while over-valued ones circulate. It’s important to dispense with the “bad money drives out good money” idea. It clouds the analysis.

And with the Italian government then saying that they will take the mini-BOT or euros for payments of taxes and fees, now they have a bid. They can then circulate within the Italian economy while scarce euros are preferentially put to use in settling international trade.

The EU is, of course, dead set against this and ECB President Mario Draghi called this proposal illegal. But that’s irrelevant. The real threat to Salvini’s plans here, which is what Italy needs, is within his own government.

Mike rightly points out that Salvini’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is a technocrat. I’ll go one further and remind you what I wrote last week, that Conte, President Sergei Mattarella and Finance Minister Giovanni Tria represent a Troika of Technocrats that work for Brussels and not Rome.

Where I disagree with Mike in his analysis is the political fallout, not the economic analysis.

Salvini did very well in the European parliament elections and many speculate he will trigger elections soon to get rid of di Maio and Conte.

For now, we have the strange case of deputies Salvini and di Maio at odds with Conte and the Economy Minister, Giovanni Tria.

Conte threatened last week to resign last week and he could do so at any time. “I want a clear, unequivocal and speedy response,” Conte said, calling for “loyal collaboration” from all ministers.
This government won’t last long.

The Italian Troika will be the ones who take down the current government if they do it at all. And if the mini-BOT proposal gains steam within the Italian parliament and is forced onto Tria’s table at the Finance Ministry, something has to happen.

Salvini will not take this government down. Salvini has ruled that out as long as Five Star Movement (M5S) goes along with his part of their shared agenda. They got their major plank with Universal Basic Income. Now it’s Salvini’s quid to their quo.

With Di Maio surviving a leadership vote the coalition is strong. The hardliners within M5S who would give Salvini a harder time have been beaten back.

Salvini’s best play here is to let the traitors hang themselves and let Brussels overplay their hand. Both of these things continue to happen while he keeps coming across as someone intensely interested in solving Italy’s domestic problems and leaving the bigger political problems to themselves.

So it will not be Salvini that takes down this Italian government. It will be Conte, Tria and Mattarella who will do so if they think they can get a hung parliament vote out of the Italian populous, forcing Salvini to ally with a minor party, like Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, which would have the whip hand in coalition talks.

And that could happen with the new electoral law which only appoints two-thirds of the seats via vote proportion while the other are all chosen via first-past-the-post. I don’t have a good feel for how that would shake out.

But here’s the rub. Just like in the U.K. you’ll notice Jeremy Corbyn not calling for a no-confidence vote in the Tory/DUP government. And we don’t see the DUP pulling out of the failing coalition. Why?

Because they know they would get stomped in a general election to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party. And then they would lose their best chance to scuttle Brexit before the Tories regroup under Boris Johnson later this summer.

The same calculus is on the table for Mattarella, et. al. Would a new election gain them an advantage over a re-jiggered Lega/M5S government with Salvini as the senior partner? If the answer is no then the Italian Troika will hold the line for Brussels and use their positions to sabotage Salvini at every turn.

They will only threaten to take down the government if it strengthens their hand. In fact, I think Conte already tried that and Salvini flipped him off, Italian-style.

Moreover, I think taking down the government to keep Brussels happy is political suicide. It will only strengthen Salvini’s hand. And if Lega and M5S campaign on the same issues in parallel they could sweep in with 60+% of the vote between them and then run the table on the Italian Troika and Brussels.

Remember, Mattarella way over-stepped his authority last year when he vetoed Salvini’s first choice for Finance Minister, Paola Savona. Impeachment was discussed. Eventually Salvini gave in, nominated Tria and Conte to satisfy Mattarella and formed the government.

If a new election were to leave Lega/M5S in a stronger position and Mattarella tries to usurp power again, he could get impeached and removed from office. And that would change the entire dynamic.

Italy needs the mini-BOT or to leave the euro entirely. Salvini is right that German Austerity is killing the country, strangling it. And don’t kid yourself, that is the plan.

This is why the EU is threatening Italy with unprecedented budget fines for what amounts to $3 to $4 billion. It’s ludicrous and it shows the weakness of their hand if they are willing to go this route over such a small thing.

But that’s where their only leverage is over the government, through their hand-picked finance minister.

Mike is right that the mini-BOT is a Trojan Horse. In more ways that one. It is the issue that can force the current unstable structure of Italy’s government to its crisis point and the Italian people can then decide who really works for them.

*  *  *

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end
UK
This may turn out to their very harmful to Brussels as its looks like Boris Johnson is a shoo in for Prime Minister. He wants a hard  Brexit and he even does not want to pay any of bills provided by the EU for payment.
(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

BoJo’s Odds Of Being UK’s Next PM Soar To 83% Following Massive 1st Round Ballot

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Boris Johnson secures enough votes in the first round of the Tory leadership process to guarantee he is a finalist.

Here’s a synopsis of the First Round of Leadership Voting.

The odds on Boris Johnson becoming the next prime minister are now 1/5, down from 4/7 this morning, the betting website Oddschecker says. That’s an implied probability of 83.3% that he will win the Conservative leadership contest.

I had Johnson at 80% from the outset. The betting odds were way off before. Don’t go by them.

Rory Stewart says he will bring down the government if Boris Johnson tried to prorogue parliament to facilitate a no-deal Brexit. Porogue means not hold a parliament session until the legal default of no deal automatically kicks in on October 31.

He [Johnson] won’t be able to. I guarantee you, if he were to try, I and every other member of parliament will sit across the road in Methodist Central Hall and we will hold our own session of parliament and we will bring him down, because you do not, ever, lock the doors on parliament in this country, or in any other country with any respect in the world.

Stewart cannot make any such guarantees other than on his own behalf. If he tries, he will find himself ousted from parliament.

Johnson has not ruled it prorogue. Dominic Raab is the Brexiter leadership candidate who explicitly ruled it in.

16 Final Hustings

Once whittled down to the final two candidates, there will be 16 Hustings where candidates address voters.

  • The first hustings will take place in Birmingham on Saturday 22 June. The final hustings will take place in London in the week commencing 15 July. There will also be an opportunity for the public to question the final two candidates online during the hustings period.
  • Conservative party members should receive postal ballots between 6 and 8 July. The result of the ballot will be announced in the week commencing 22 July.
  • The campaign spending limit for each candidate is £150,000, commencing from 7 June.

What’s Next?

  • Tomorrow 1pm: Deadline for candidates who want to announce they are withdrawing from the contest.
  • Sunday 16 June: Channel 4 News broadcasts a hustings for the remaining candidates, chaired by Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Boris Johnson is not expected to participate, but other candidates, including Michael Gove and Rory Stewart, have said they are keen to be there.
  • Monday 17 June: Second round of hustings organised by the 1922 Committee, starting at 3pm. These take place in private.
  • Tuesday 18 June: The second ballot takes place between 3pm and 5pm, with the result announced at about 6pm. The candidate coming last will drop out, as well as any candidate receiving fewer than 33 votes. At 8pm, Emily Maitlis will chair a BBC hustings.
  • Wednesday 18 June: [I believe the Guardian means the 19th] The third ballot will take place, with voting between 3pm and 5pm and the result due at about 6pm. The candidate coming last will drop out.
  • Thursday 19 June [I believe the Guardian means the 20th]: Two further ballots will take place, if needed, the first in the morning, with the results announced at about 1pm, and the second in the afternoon, with the results announced at about 6pm. By the end of Thursday, the 1922 Committee hopes to have whittled the list down to two for the ballot of party members.
  • Week beginning Monday 22 July: The winner of the election is due to be announced this week. The Conservative party has not yet said exactly when that will be, but Wednesday 24 July is likely to be the new leader’s first PMQs, or Theresa May’s last.

It’s a smart move by Johnson to not participate on the 16th.

The Remoaners will all unite behind either Gove or Hunt in a fool’s mission to stop a no-deal Brexit.

Kiss Stewart Goodbye

The next vote is Tuesday, June 18. Candidates who will vote against their own party have no chance.

Word About Guarantees

Stewart made a foolish “guarantee” that is not his to make.

Johnson’s current total of 124 does not “guarantee” him a place at the table for the final round.

More accurately, 105 votes in the final elimination round does. MPs can change their minds in the next week.

At this stage, only Johnson can do Johnson in. It’s possible, but don’t bet on it.

In politics, one month is long time. That’s the only reason not to give Johnson higher than an 83% chance right now.

The current odds are about where I expected them to be. But 16 Hustings are coming up. Anything can happen.

To the huge advantage of BoJo, polls (which I believe are accurate) show the Tory membership likes Johnson far more than the Tory MPs do, and it is the party, not the MPs that makes the final call

END

 

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

i)IRAN

The USA releases a ‘smoking gun” showing the Iran’s navy trying to remove mine fragments from the Tanker hull

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Releases “Smoking Gun” Video Of Iran’s Navy Handling Mine On Tanker Hull

In a perhaps positive sign that could slow the attempts of hawks within the administration to push for war over Thursday’s mysterious attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, US Central Command issued a statement just hours after Pompeo officially blamed Tehran, saying in a CENTCOM press release that a war with Iran is not in our strategic interest, nor in the best interest of the international community.”

 

Screenshot of newly released CENTCOM footage which US officials say shows Iran caught in the act of removing an unexploded mine from one of the tankers attacked on Thursday. 

The statement further called for a formal UN investigation into the incident, something for which there’s already international momentum. Iran has “categorically” denied having anything to do with the attack, saying through FM Zarif “Suspicious doesn’t begin to describe what likely transpired”.

The entire bizarre event had immediately evoked unusual levels of public skepticism from media pundits to social media users to even CNN.

Iran’s permanent mission to the UN said on Thursday evening that it “categorically rejects the U.S. unfounded claim with regard to 13 June oil tanker incidents and condemns it in the strongest possible terms,” according to Bloomberg.

 

The Front Altair oil tanker on fire in the Gulf of Oman on June 13, 2019. AP Photo/ISNA

US Central Command spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Earl Brown said in the CENTCOM statement: “The U.S. and our regional partners are assisting in the response to attacks in the Gulf of Oman. The U.S. and the international community stand ready to defend our interests, including freedom of navigation.”

Crucially, the statement continued: “We have no interest in engaging in a new conflict in the Middle East,” and added, “We will defend our interests, but a war with Iran is not in our strategic interest, nor in the best interest of the international community.”

And further interesting is that the administration is claiming possession of photographic and video evidence that the massive fires aboard the tankers, which resulted in the USS Bainbridge initiating an emergency rescue of at least 21 mariners from one of the tankers, were the result of mines placed on the vessels. According to Bloomberg:

Senior administration officials said that at least one of the ships was attacked by mines. In a briefing with reporters, they showed a photo of a tanker, the Courageous, with a hole in its side caused by a mine that exploded, they said, and an undetonated mine lodged inside.

The officials said they didn’t know for sure whether the mines were Iranian. The U.S. concluded that Iran was responsible for the attacks based on intelligence sources and the absence of any better explanation, the officials said. They declined to elaborate on the intelligence sources.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

Images and video now being released by @CENTCOM showing what it says is a likely unexploded limpet mine attached to the hull of the Japanese-owned chemical tanker Kokura Courageous.

Ironically, though it was the US side that pulled out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), US officials further said Iran’s motive was “to escalate the conflict” with Washington because “it’s not interested in discussions with the U.S.,” according to the Bloomberg report.

CBS has the following detail concerning video evidence pointing to an attack operation involving mines:

A U.S. defense official told CBS News thatthe U.S. has video of a small boat coming alongside one of the tankers that was attacked and removing an unexploded “limpet” mine — a type of explosive that can be stuck manually to the side of a vessel. It is the same type of weapon U.S. officials say Iran used to attack four oil tankers off the nearby Emirati port of Fujairah last month.

But is this what the grainy footage actually shows? It’s anything but clear just what is going on in the newly released CENTCOM footage:

Embedded video

Philip Crowther

@PhilipinDC

Just in: Pentagon video of what it says is an Iranian boat removing an unexploded mine from one of the attacked oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.

US officials also told CNN that the video of the mine involved Japanese-owned chemical tanker Kokura Courageous, and that the “small boat” belonged to the Iranian navy.

The CNN report claims Iran’s navy was observed removing an unexploded mine, suggesting early statements that Iran was actually involved in rescue efforts could be true, though the exact nature of just what the purported video proves remains unclear:

The United States has video and photos that show an Iranian navy boat removing an unexploded mine attached to the hull of the Japanese-owned chemical tanker Kokura Courageous, four US officials tell CNN.

The anonymous US sources which spoke to CNN suggested the Iranians were actually “removing evidence” and not engaged in a rescue attempt, as the Iranians previously stated:

The official said the imagery shows a person on board that small boat grabbing the unexploded mine.

The boat made the move even after the USS Bainbridge, as well as a US drone and P-8 aircraft, had been on the scene for four hours. US defense officials believe that the Iranians were seeking to recover evidence of their involvement in the attack.

Meanwhile, the question of custody over evidence so near Iran’s territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz will likely quickly prove contentious.

Max Blumenthal

@MaxBlumenthal

Remember the Maine, Operation Northwoods, Gulf of Tonkin, Kuwaiti incubator babies, Saddam’s WMD’s, Qaddafi soldiers’ Viagra spree, Last Messages From Aleppo, Douma, burning aid on Colombia-Venezuela bridge, and now today’s attacks in the Gulf of Oman.

Secretary Pompeo

@SecPompeo

It is the assessment of the U.S. government that Iran is responsible for today’s attacks in the Gulf of Oman. These attacks are a threat to international peace and security, a blatant assault on the freedom of navigation, and an unacceptable escalation of tension by Iran.

View image on Twitter

The latest reports suggest the tanker Front Altair is in danger of sinking, while the Japanese owned Panama-flagged Kokuka Courageous is said to be drifting into Iranian territorial waters, which could create a conflict over the vessel’s recovery with the US, which will no doubt want to have control over all available evidence.

END

The Japanese owner denies the ship was hit by a mine and instead he claims that the crew saw “flying objects” before the attack..maybe a torpedo?

(courtesy zerohedge)

Japanese Tanker Owner Denies Ship Hit By Mine, Says Crew Saw “Flying Objects” Before Attack

For a moment on Thursday, it appeared that the US Navy had produced the ‘smoking gun’ to which Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had alluded during his statement from earlier in the day: CENTCOM footage which the Navy said purported to show Iran’s IRGC ‘caught in the act’ of trying to remove an unexploded  mine from the Kokuka Courageous, one of the two tankers damaged in Thursday’s attacks.

CENTCOM said the video it released showed the IRGC removing an unexploded limpet mine from the side of one of the tankers, suggesting Tehran had sought to remove evidence from the scene.

Embedded video

Philip Crowther

@PhilipinDC

Just in: Pentagon video of what it says is an Iranian boat removing an unexploded mine from one of the attacked oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman

After the video’s release, Iran continued to deny any involvement in the attacks. And perhaps now we know why.

In comments that cast the entire narrative promulgated by the US in doubt, Yutaka Katada, the president of Kokuka Sangyo, the owner and operator of the Kokuka Courageous, said Friday that he doesn’t completely believe Washington’s version of events.

Instead, he said the vessel wasn’t damaged by a mine, but by some kind of projectile, like, say, a torpedo. He called reports of a mine attack “false.” One reason is because a mine doesn’t damage a ship above sea level, like what was seen with the Courageous.

“A mine doesn’t damage a ship above sea level,” said Yutaka Katada, president of Kokuka Sangyo, the owner and operator of the vessel. “We aren’t sure exactly what hit, but it was something flying towards the ship,” he said.

Another is because of a suspicious sighting by some of the crew, according to Bloomberg.

Japan

Yutaka Katada

According to the CEO, sailors on board the Courageous saw “flying objects” just before the ship was hitsuggesting the vessel wasn’t damaged by mines, but by objects that could have been fired from a distance.

Katada’s comments contradict Washington’s allegations of a mine attack, though the CEO did mention that his crew had spotted an Iranian Navy ship nearby around the time of the attack, though he didn’t say whether it was before or after.

The Courageous was carrying 225,000 tons of methanol from Saudi Arabia to Asia and was flying a Panama flag at the time of the attack. Analysts immediately noted the poor timing for Tehran: The attack occurred just as senior Iranian leaders were meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The Courageous suffered two explosions, forcing the crew to evacuate. Fortunately for the company, the ship is unlikely to sink or even lose fuel or goods stored onboard – but it will need to be repaired, Katada said. The US said the ship’s 21-member crew was rescued by a Dutch tug boat and was later taken aboard the USS Bainbridge.

Per CBS News, the US may have wanted to show Iran deploying mines because Iran previously used mines against oil tankers in 1987 and 1988 in the “Tanker War,” when the US Navy escorted ships through the region.

In other news, the US Military said the Navy Destroyer USS Mason is en route to the area in the Sea of Oman where the two tankers were attacked. The military added that it has no interest in engaging in new conflict in the Middle East and that it is ready to defend US interests as well as freedom of navigation.

Iran categorically rejected the US unfounded claim regarding tanker attacks, according to Iran’s foreign minister and its mission to the UN.

Markets appeared to shrug off the news, but the uncertainty will likely create problems for the US as it tries to justify more strict sanctions, or a beefed up military presence to “escort” tankers. However, this didn’t stop President Trump on Friday from once again placing the blame squarely on Iran.

We imagine the US will continue pushing this line, unless more substantial evidence supporting Katada’s claims emerge

END

Trump claims that the tanker attack has Iran written all over it..Tehran claims it is a false flag.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Says Tanker Attack Has “Iran Written All Over It” As Tehran Slams US “False Flag”

Iran has slammed what it’s mission to the United Nations said are “unfounded and reckless” claims put forth yesterday by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accusing Iran of conducting the “blatant” attack on two international oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday. Meanwhile President Trump on Friday morning told Fox & Friends that the tanker attacks had “Iran written all over it” and dismissed Iran as “a nation of terror.”

Notably, Iranian officials have accused the US or one of its allies of conducing a false flag operation as part of the “disinformation campaign” to continue its “maximum pressure” which aims at bringing Tehran into the cross hairs of a US-led war.

“The US and its regional allies must stop warmongering and put an end to mischievous plots and false flag operations in the region,” Iran’s mission to the United Nations said.

 

Image source: AFP

Issued late Thursday, the statement said further: “Warning, once again, about all of the US coercion, intimidation and malign behavior, Iran expresses concern over suspicious incidents for the oil tankers that occurred today.”

“The US economic war and terrorism against the Iranian people as well as the massive military presence in the region have been and continue to be the main sources of insecurity and instability in the wider Persian Gulf region and the most significant threat to its peace and security,” the statement continued.

Iran’s foreign minister also later described the US accusations as “sabotage diplomacy” following his previous comments posted to Twitter saying “Suspicious doesn’t begin to describe what likely transpired” — especially given Iran’s president and the Ayatollah were hosting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe to mediate nuclear deal matters and sanctions relief at the very moment the attack took place.

Malcolm Nance

@MalcolmNance

Where is the video of the Iranians PLACING explosives & detonating them? Removal would be prudent by any Navy/CG. Also location of explosives is VERY high off waterline …Weird. It’s not a limpet mine, it’s a demo charge. Had to be put on by fairly high boat w/ a long gaff/pole

Philip Crowther

@PhilipinDC

Just in: Pentagon video of what it says is an Iranian boat removing an unexploded mine from one of the attacked oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.

Embedded video

Also late Thursday evening the Pentagon released a video purporting to show  ‘smoking gun’ evidence to which Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had alluded during his statement from earlier in the day: CENTCOM footage which the Navy said showed Iran’s IRGC ‘caught in the act’ of trying to remove an unexploded mine from the Kokuka Courageous, one of the two tankers damaged in Thursday’s attacks.

However, a further strange and confusing bit of information has entered the mix, given the Japanese owner of the Kokuka Courageous which the US Navy said it filmed IRGC operatives removing an unexploded mine from has issued public statements denying the US version of events. In comments that cast the entire narrative promulgated by the US in doubt, the owner said Friday that he doesn’t completely believe Washington’s version of events.

President of Kokuka Sangyo – the owner and operator of the Kokuka Courageous – Yutaka Katadahe, said he believes the vessel wasn’t damaged by a mine, but by some kind of projectile, like, say, a torpedo. He called reports of a mine attack “false.” One reason is because a mine doesn’t damage a ship above sea level, like what was seen with the Courageous.

“A mine doesn’t damage a ship above sea level,” Katadahe said. “We aren’t sure exactly what hit, but it was something flying towards the ship,” he said.

While the UN and other countries are calling for a multi-national objective investigation, Britain is the latest to join the United States in issuing a hasty accusation that Iran was behind the attacks.

UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said late in the day Thursday: “This is deeply worrying and comes at a time of already huge tension.

“I have been in contact with Pompeo and, while we will be making our own assessment soberly and carefully, our starting point is obviously to believe our U.S. allies.” He added: “We are taking this extremely seriously and my message to Iran is that if they have been involved it is a deeply unwise escalation which poses a real danger to the prospects of peace and stability in the region.”

Meanwhile President Trump told Fox & Friends during a call-in interview Friday morning that the Gulf of Oman tanker attacks had “Iran written all over it.” He further called Iran “a nation of terror,” and bluntly said “Iran did do it,” citing the US Navy video. “You know they did it because you saw the boat,” Trump said. “I guess one of the mines didn’t explode and it’s probably got essentially Iran written all over it.”

“You saw the boat at night, successfully trying to take the mine off — and that was exposed,” the president said. However, Trump stopped short of the more aggressive war rhetoric more characteristic of either Bolton or Pompeo over the past couple months, citing no new potential US responses, only saying the US has been “very tough on sanctions.” But Trump did issue a stern warning on safe oil passage through the vital and strategic Strait of Hormuz.

“They’re not going to be closing it. It’s not going to be closed, it’s not going to be closed for long and they know it. They’ve been told in very strong terms,” Trump said, speaking of Iran and its IRGC which monitors the narrow waterway.

END
Now with all of the above news, Michael Every puts it in proper prospective
(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

Dire Straits Of Hormuz

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Well, we didn’t have to wait long for ’John Wick: Chapter Portobello’ to begin, did we? Brent crude spiked 4.5% before giving up around half of those gains as a further two oil tankers–one Norwegian, one Japanese–were attacked in the Straits of Hormuz, forcing the evacuation of both vessels; that as Japanese PM Abe sat down with the Iranian government to try to dial down tensions with the US – and as the leadership refused to accept any message from President Trump. The US have now accused Iran of attacking the two ships, which follows on from two other recent tanker attacks, drones hitting Saudi oil pumps, and a missile hitting a Saudi airport this week. The easy market response was long oil, obviously, as well as a ‘Risk Off’ further leg down in bond yields. But who did this and why? And what does that say will happen next? Logically, it was either Iran, or the US, or a third party:

Iran is suffocating under US sanctions, a known instigator of such actions via proxies, and threatening the EU with walking away from the nuclear deal if they won’t help it out. An attack like this would be incredibly reckless…unless they are desperate enough to up the ante to see if a war-averse White House will press ahead with another ruinous Middle East conflict ahead of the 2020 elections and in the face of a Cold War with China. If that is the case then expect more provocations and more Risk Off even as Iran calls this all “beyond suspicious”, “economic terrorism”, and “sabotage diplomacy”.

The US is divided between neo-cons champing at the bit to take on Tehran, war-averse Trump, and a Pentagon now looking at China–and Russia–as the real threat: notably, CENTCOM has said a war with Iran is not in the US strategic interest – and it isn’t. Why would Trump order an attack on a Japanese ship just as Japanese PM Abe is in Iran as emissary to try to de-escalate (a situation the US has escalated in typically Trump fashion)? In short, although the US has from–Gulf of Tonkin, WMD–this seems less likely.

Third parties are a short short-list. Mainstream media will no doubt follow murky social media to point a finger at the Saudis and Israelis – and the latter more than the former. Yet would either want to precipitate a major war that would drag them in when economic sanctions on Iran are biting? Perhaps. But also consider the political blowback of being found out as war instigators in Washington could be existential.

In short, one could argue that the largest risk is that it is the Iranians who are upping the stakes vs. US economic pressure,…in which case the US has very difficult choices to make on both fronts. Jaw-jaw or war-war? The bell-weather(?) Fox News is already suggesting Trump’s hand may be forced by Iran’s actions. As with China and trade war-war that backdrop certainly supports our long-held view of lower yields, stronger USD, and weaker EM FX…and perhaps weaker GBP too given Boris Johnson handily won the first round of the Tory party leadership election and, barring error, appears to be next UK Prime Minister.

Even if we ignore politics/risk off/John Wick, lower yields lie ahead. Consider the RBA for example, as Aussie 3-year bond yields are now below 1% and 10s at 1.38% when we started the year at 2.31% with market talk (from others!!) of when, not if, the RBA would hike again. For years the Reserve Bank have been boasting about the strength of the labour market as I argued the jobs data are inaccurate, looking at under-employment argues there is lots of slack, and there are 15-20K of new arrivals every month. Now suddenly say the RBA says the unemployment rate needs to be as low as 3.5% to address those issues: given we are 5.2% and rising, that’s a whole lot of monetary policy stimulus ahead! Have they read back-issues of my Aussie monthly page? Had a Damascene conversion? Or are they looking at the housing market and saying “Whatever it takes, mate”.

I also must add that in the US we also just saw import prices negative m/m and y/y again with the Chinese exporting DEFLATION not inflation despite 25% tariffs on USD250bn of goods (albeit perhaps this hasn’t fully kicked in). Who pays for tariffs? Certainly not US consumers so far. Nothing for the Fed to worry about on that front anyway.

The one unalloyed good piece of news today is that there are tentative signs that the Hong Kong government might be prepared to delay the debate on controversial extradition legislation that has triggered discussion of existential risks to its status as a global financial centre. However, there are also calls for further public protests on both Sunday and Monday, and things can change fast…

…everywhere!

 

end

TURKEY

The Turkish lira slides after Erdogan vows he will retaliate against uSA sanctions after Turkey receives its S 400 defense shield

(courtesy zerohedge)

Lira Slides After Turkey Vows It Will Retaliate To US Sanctions Over S-400

Two weeks ago, when Trump started rolling out tariffs left and right as a political punishment weapon for any sovereigns who presented hurdles to White House policies (like Mexico), we predicted which country would likely be next on Trump’s list of tariffs: Turkey.

zerohedge@zerohedge

Next on Trump’s train of terrifying tariffs: Turkey

The reason is simple: Turkey’s now official stance that it would proceed with concluding the Russian S-400 missile deal despite vocal opposition from both the US president and Congress. And now, Turkey, too, is bracing for what now appears inevitable as it refuses to budge on its commitment to the Kremlin.

Overnight, Turkey said it would hold firm in its commitment to honor its purchase of Russian air defense systems, warning the US that it is prepared to take “reciprocal steps” in reply to any sanctions imposed by Washington, effectively admitting that sanctions by the White House are only a matter of time.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu dismissed as “futile” the US’s continuous efforts to dissuade Turkey from receiving S-400 batteries from Russia, during an interview with Turkish TV on Friday. The foreign minister added that Ankara was “steadfast” in continuing with the purchase, whatever the consequences.

 

Mevlut Cavusoglu

We are determined on the S-400 issue. No matter what the results will be, we will not take a step back” he said, clearly forgetting that Turkey said the exact same thing last summer just before the US unleashed a battery of sanctions and crushed the Turkish economy, sending the lira to record lows.

And just like last summer, when asked about the possibility of a US-imposed sanctions regime against its NATO ally, Cavusoglu said Turkey was prepared to respond:

“If the United States takes any negative actions towards us, we will also take reciprocal steps.”

In this vein, a senior Turkish official told Bloomberg that Turkey “is analyzing products imported from and exported to the U.S. as part of its possible response.”

One day earlier, on Thursday, Cavusoglu commented on a letter from US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan to Turkey’s defense minister, outlining how Turkey would be ostracized from the F-35 program if it didn’t comply with its demands. “We reject the wording [of] the letter to our defense minister. Nobody can give an ultimatum to Turkey,” he said.

And speaking of the Lira, after a bizarre rally in late May which saw the Turkish currency regain much of the ground lost in early 2019, the lira tumbled, sliding as low as 5.9329 against the dollar before paring some losses.

Tensions between the US and Turkey over the S-400 missile system have been escalating for months but have taken on a new urgency as Ankara gears up to receive its first deliveries of the system this summer. Washington has claimed that the incorporation of a Russian-made air defense system into Turkey’s arsenal would compromise the security of the F-35 fighter jet and has threatened to remove Turkey as a program partner. The US has also reportedly failed to respond to Turkish suggestions to form a working group in order to gauge the potential impact of the S-400 on NATO

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

7  OIL ISSUES

A very important commentary on oil from Tom Luongo who correctly points out that our shale boys are bleeding badly.  Their cash flows are negative.  Thus, as the economy is slowing down, this will put a glut of oil remaining in the USA with no markets.  Shale boys cannot discount as their costs are too high.  Trump thinks he is winning by exporting oil..think again.

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Trump Thinks US Oil Is His Strength When It’s His Achilles’ Heel

 

Authored by Tom Luongo via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Headlines abound about the massive surge in US shale oil production. The energy independence-cheering punditocracy hail this as a great victory. This includes President Trump.

And it would be if this surge in production was built on financially stable ground. But it isn’t. The fracking industry continues to bleed massive amounts of cash. As I pointed out in an article earlier this week, when accounting for this inconvenient truth much of the U.S’s return to dominance in the energy space is a lot of hot air.

Nick Cunningham’s article at Oilprice.com tells the tale.

Heading into 2019, the industry promised to stake out a renewed focus on capital discipline and shareholder returns. But that vow is now in danger of becoming yet another in a long line of unmet goals.

“Another quarter, another gusher of red ink,” the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, along with the Sightline Institute, wrote in a joint report on the first quarter earnings of the shale industry.

The report studied 29 North American shale companies and found a combined $2.5 billion in negative free cash flow in the first quarter. That was a deterioration from the $2.1 billion in negative cash flow from the fourth quarter of 2018. “This dismal cash flow performance came despite a 16 percent quarter-over-quarter decline in capital expenditures,” the report’s authors concluded.

This lack of profitability is maintained solely through financial engineering and a continued bull market in structured credit in the US due to the needs of pension funds to make a 7.5% yield to maintain their defined benefit payouts.

They aren’t the only ones fueling this fracking boom but it is a major driver of both US equities and the commercial paper market. This is just another consequence of the Federal Reserve’s zero-bound interest rate policy.

So, why is this Trump’s foreign policy Achilles’ heel? Because with the global economy slowing down, US domestic production is already in massive oversupply. There is a glut of oil and gas so profound that it ensures the bottom lines of these companies will not improve, leaving them at the mercy of these creditors.

The good news for them, in the short run, is that they will likely be able to continue in their Ponzi-like ways, because the Fed will start cutting interest rates by September.

But from a foreign policy perspective Trump is betting on restricting the supply of oil from ‘competitors’ to make US oil more attractive. There are two problems with this.

First, other countries with lower costs of production can keep the market in relative equilibrium, living on small profits, but profits nonetheless.

Second, and more importantly, US shale oil has an upper limit on demand since it’s too light for most refineries and requires blending with heavier feedstock. This is why, for example, US imports of Russian oil are rising rapidly to feed Gulf coast refineries starved of Venezuelan oil thanks to Trump trying to take it off the market.

Countries like Venezuela and Iran can, and will, compete on price. They can and will find ways around Trump’s sanctions. Again Russia moves in to provide a market deficit, this time payment clearing services through already US sanctioned banks.

With each new tariff or sanction on a third-party Trump further alienates US producers from all industries from foreign markets.

And the Saudis are trapped in the middle. They now know they can’t expand production because demand is so poor. In fact, they cut production by 120,000 barrels in May. So much for their assurance to Trump that they will take up Iran’s losses.

Prices are falling because of inventory builds which imply slack demand not higher supply.

Moreover, OPEC wants to continue the production cuts, but Russia has signaled strongly that they are uninterested in joining them. Putin knows he has Saudi Arabia on price because Russia is budgeted for $40 per barrel while the Saudis need a multiple of that.

He will continue to drive a wedge between the Saudis and the US on oil market share. The Saudis cannot afford to lose any while Russia can ramp production or expand its oil-for-goods program with Iran to expand theirs.

What’s Trump going to do, sanction Russia further?

A contracting global economy is a recipe for low oil prices begetting bankruptcies across the shale space. This is why Trump is exhorting the Fed to cut rates, to allow the fracking Ponzi a little more time to bring Iran to heel.

This is the game of chicken Trump is playing with China, Russia and Iran. He’s betting on the short-term pain creating capitulation.They are playing the long game getting him to over-extend himself. There are always workarounds to mitigate that pain and eventually those workarounds become the new normal as people’s habits change.

President Putin understands Russia can make serious gains playing good cop to Trump’s bad cop.

Russia has made it clear to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump directly that it will not horse-trade Iran’s presence in Syria for a small concession on Europe, despite the conciliatory note struck diplomatically.

Moreover, Putin knows Trump can’t be trusted to keep or implement his word anyway, so no agreement is possible on the now myriad issues between them. So, Russia and China will support Iran as best as they can while pursuing their own paths to strengthen their relationship.

A stronger Chinese/Russian alliance creates new paths for capital to flow away from Trump’s prying and threats.

At the G-20 Trump will go in with a list of demands from Putin on helping him with his Israel plans, which, in the end, is what all of this is about. But I don’t see Putin giving Trump an inch. Putin has told Trump he’s reached his limit with John Bolton’s Syria balkanization plans by launching the campaign to retake Idlib.

That all Trump can do is fulminate about ‘civilians’ is the height of hypocrisy and impotence as more and more evidence of NATO’s hand in arming the terrorists in Syria comes to light.

Jared Kushner’s “Deal of the Century” has been delayed again because there’s no support for it outside of the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In the end time is always on the side of the defenders in any conflict like this one, especially one built on the fragile edifice of an oil market ready to implode thanks to continued malinvestment and price distortions.

Waiting out the insanity is the best path here. It may end with Trump being forced into a catastrophic conflict with Iran, as Alistair Crooke suggests, but it will also expose the US’s financial instability that much faster as the dollar and global interest rates spike and the edifice of debt maintaining these insane policies deflates.

*  *  *

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1262 DOWN .0018 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.23 DOWN 0.088 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2642   DOWN   0.0037  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3340 UP .0012 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 18 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1262 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 28.79 POINTS OR 0.99% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 176.36 POINTS OR 0.65%

 

 

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,22%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 176.36 POINTS OR 0.65%

 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.77 POINTS OR 0.99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 22% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 84.89  POINTS OR 0.40%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1353,65

silver:$15.04

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.07% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.58 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.15 UP 13 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.61% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.13%  DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.59%//DOWN 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.35 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 186 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.26% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.60% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1209  DOWN    .0070 or 70 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.56 UP .245 OR YEN DOWN 25  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2588 DOWN .0091 POUND DOWN 91  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 83 basis points to 1.3411

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9255    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9350  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.88820 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.13%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.09 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.59 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.55 UP 54  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 22,79  0.31%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 72.65 POINTS OR .60%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 8,01 POINTS 0.15%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 52.90 POINTS or 0.57%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 18.30 POINTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 52.52 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 62.12 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE RISES:    64.38  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.15 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.26 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  52.27//

 

 

BRENT :  61.32

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.09…   VERY DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.60..VERY DEADLY/

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1209 ( DOWN 70   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108,56 UP .245 (YEN DOWN 25 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.55 UP 54 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2676 DOWN 16  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8820

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.38   UP 0.15 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 15 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.34111 DOWN 83 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9255  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9350 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.26%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 17,16 POINTS OR 0.07%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 24.84 POINTS OR 0.19%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.80 CLOSED DOWN .11

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.410%//libor dropping like a stone

 

 

 

FROM 2.427

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//

Markets Stuck In Limbo As Traders Brace For Next Week’s Fireworks

Heading into today’s session, the mood had already soured on chip names after Broadcom’s dismal guidance cut, which slammed tech names in Asia and Europe, and which pressured the Semiconductor sector lower all day, and also prevented the Nasdaq from turning green all day.

The latest econ data from China did not help, with Industrial Production missing the lowest estimate, and printing at a 17 year low in the latest confirmation that Beijing’s attempt to reflate the local economy is failing, even as retail sales staged a modest rebound from last month’s disastrous print.

However, while traders were absolutely certain that next week the Fed had no choice but to telegraph a rate cut cycle was imminent, that conviction was dented a bit when the US reported strong retail sales and, more importantly, solid upward revisions to last month’s data…

… although even so, the odds of a July rate cut barely shifted, remaining solidly above 80%.

As such, with no new information about either next week’s Fed cut, or the outcome of the critical G-20 meeting where the fate of the US trade war may be decided (but won’t be) the market meandered, and went nowhere, with Construction and Banks outperforming, while Tech, Energy, and the Russell all underperformed.

Meanwhile as stocks drifted, so did Tsy yields, with the 10Y yielding 2.09%, after sliding below 2.06% earlier in the session, before rebounding to unchanged, even as the recent trend is clearly lower, and a 1 handle is distinctly possible next week if the Fed does in fact surprise dovishly.

Things were more dramatic in Europe, where the 10Y Bund hit a new negative record of -0.27%…

… as European 5Y5Y inflation swaps also hit a new all time low as central bank credibility is rapidly evaporating.

Worse, as BofA showed earlier, the yield on all global debt ex the US is now at an all time record low as deflation is once again becoming the norm, while the amount of negative yielding debt is back to all time highs.

Well, deflation for everyone but the US perhaps, because in FX, the dollar once again reigned supreme, with the yen, euro and cable all sliding, while the DXY – having rebounded perfectly off the 200DMA – was rising toward its next big resistance level around 98, while the BBDXY emerged back over 1200 offsetting much of the market’s recent fears of a Fed rate cut. It does beg the question: what if anything can bring the dollar lower?

Perhaps the most interesting asset of the day was gold, which increasingly more investing legends are backing into what will be the Fed’s next easing cycle, and which after briefly attempting to breakout above a 2 year resistance, was smacked down, sliding $20 from intraday highs, suggesting that another attempt at a breakout will have to be attempted again next week.

And so, as we enter the most important week of the year, equity traders remain surprisingly calm, even as rate vol continues to soar and commodity volatility is not too far behind.

Still, as we noted earlier, next week could result in turmoil in rates vol, where one or more dealers is said to be nursing a major, $100MM+ loss, and should the Fed turn even more dovish, said turmoil could well and finally migrate to the equity space as well.

And after what was a largely wasted day, we look toward next week’s fireworks, where BofA laid out a matrix of what to expect between the two key events: the G-20 meeting and the FOMC, and where the range of outcomes could send the S&P from below 2,650 to above 3,000.

 

In short, brace for a violent return in volatility.

 

end

 

i) Market trading/

Treasury Yields Spike, Stocks Dip As Retail Sales Weakens Rate-Cut Case

“Good” news is bad news today as solid retail sales data (and upward revisions) have prompted a reracking of Treasury yields across the curve and drop in expectations of Fed rate-cuts. This has also modestly weakened stocks…

2Y yield spiked 6bps…

The very short-end has adjusted hawkishly…

And the dollar is higher…

June rate0cut hopes are fading…

 

MARKET TRADING/LATE MORNING

 

end

 

LATE AFTERNOON

 

ii)Market data/

Industrial production rebounds from last month’s decline

(zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Rebounds From Its Weakest Since Feb 2017

After a huge disappointment ( and biggest decline in a year) in April, May’s US Industrial Production was expected to rebound modestly but it beat expectations of a 0.2% gain, rising 0.4% MoM.

It has been an ugly few months for industrial production but this rebound is the biggest MoM jump since Nov 2018.

Factory production rose 0.2% in May after falling 0.5% in April but the biggest driver of IP gains in May was a 2.1% spike in Utilities… not exactly a reflection of a humming economy, and we would not rely on this being sustainable…

U.S. May Oil and Gas Drilling Fell 4% MoM and May consumer energy products posted a rise of 1.5% MoM after falling 4.4% in April.

On a year-over-year basis, industrial production growth rebounded from its weakest since Feb 2017

This is not the rebound in economic data that markets are hoping for as, like retail sales, it weakens The Fed’s case for an “insurance” cut. We await the proclamation that, like inflation’s dip, this rebound in production is transitory too…

end
this is not what the Fed wants to hear: Inflation expectations are plunging…they need higher inflation to pay off their debts
(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich: Inflation Expectations Plunge To Record Lows But Buying Conditions Soar

University of Michigan’s Sentiment Survey showed that expectations fell in June (preliminary) data from 16 years highs, weighing down the headline index modestly as current conditions ticked up.

“Consumer sentiment reversed the May gain due to tariffs as well as slowing gains in employment,” Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said in a statement.

However, despite the headline decline, buying conditions for homes, cars, and appliances spiked in June…

 

And finally, and perhaps most dramatically, longer-term inflation expectations declined to 2.2% from 2.6% in May, the lowest since the survey began.

Negative mentions of tariffs were spontaneously made by 40% of respondents, up from 21% in May, the report said.

Notably, interviews in the Michigan survey were conducted May 29 to June 12 – that spanned the days during which Trump threatened to place tariffs on all Mexican goods and later announced an agreement on migrants called off those proposed levies.

END

Retail sales recover a bit last month

(zerohedge)

Retail Sales YoY Growth Slows In May, Revisions Prompt GDP Upgrades

Following April’s disappointing decline in US retail sales (and overnight strength in Chinese retail sales), hope was high for a rebound in May but the data was extremely noisy with April data revised dramatically higher.

Headline Retail Sales (Advance) rose 0.5% MoM in May (below +0.6% MoM expectations) but April’s -0.2% initial print was revised up to +0.3% MoM. However, on a year-over-year basis, headline retail sales growth has slowed to +3.2%.

Sales in the “control group” subset – which some analysts view as a more reliable gauge of underlying consumer demand – climbed 0.5%, topping projections, after an upwardly revised 0.4% gain. The measure excludes food services, car dealers, building- materials stores and fuel stations.

Every sales category was up in May (led by a 1.4% MoM gain in non-store retailers, i.e Amazon – +11.5% YoY) except Food and Beverage stores -0.1% and Miscellaneous store retailers -1.3%:

The upward historical revisions likely means Q2 GDP will be revised up by around 0.3%.

Is this too strong a number for The Fed’s “Goldilocks” scenario?

END

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Graham Summers asks:  if everything is under control why is the Fed talking about permanent QE and Zirp/Nirp.. Find out why

(courtesy Graham Summers)

-END-

We will leave you tonight with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

 

 

Iran Did It, Impeachment is On, Economic Update

By Greg Hunter On June 14, 2019

Two oil tankers attacked off the coast of Iran this week sent oil prices and the DOW higher. The U.S. says Iran did it, but Iran denies it. Everybody wants oil prices higher except the global consumer, and until today, prices were headed down along with the slowing economy. Was this attack a false flag?

Looks like Democrats have finally turned the corner on trying to officially impeach President Trump. Can they do it? Did Trump commit an impeachable crime? The answer is No and No.

The economy continues to decline, which is why central bankers are talking about cutting interest rates and printing money. Wait–didn’t central bankers do this for the last 10 years since the financial crisis? Is this going to work now when it’s failed to fix anything? The answer should scare the heck out of you.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

:

WELL THAT ABOUT DOES IT FOR TONIGHT

I WILL SEE YOU MONDAY NIGHT.

HARVEY

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