JUNE 28/OPTIONS EXPIRY AT LONDON’S LBMA/AND THE OTC FINISHED TODAY/GOLD UP 90 CENTS TO $1410.80//SILVER UP 6 CENTS TO $15.31//ALL EYES ON THE BIG MEETING WITH XI AND TRUMP SCHEDULED FOR TOMORROW//EU’S VERSION OF “SWIFT” IS NOW OPERATIONAL AND TRUMP WILL GO BALLISTIC: THIS WAS ANNOUNCED AFTER THE MARKET CLOSED//

 

 

GOLD: $1410.80  UP $0.90 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15,31 UP 6 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1410.10

 

silver:  $15.33

 

 

YOUR DATA…

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 371 NOTICE(S) FOR 37100 OZ (1.1539 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  371 NOTICES FOR 37,100 OZ  (1.1539 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

2620 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 13,100,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2620 for   13,100,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 12,010 UP 680 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 11975 UP 1048

 

 

 

 

end

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 2526 CONTRACTS FROM 223,138 DOWN TO 220,612 WITH THE 7 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JUNE, 1188 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1188 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1188 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1188 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.94 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 7 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

NOTE:  THE HUGE INCREASE IN EFP ISSUANCE FOR JUNE!!

WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT..AND MAJOR SPREADING LIQUIDATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

53,077 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 53077 CONTRACTS) OR 265.38 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2653 CONTRACTS OR 13.26 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JUNE:  265.38 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 37.91% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1157.49   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2526, WITH THE 7 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1188 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS WILL RESUME THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES FOR SILVER ONCE THE JUNE CONTRACT COMMENCES IN EARNEST….

TODAY WE LOST A GOOD SIZED: 1341 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1188 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2526  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  7 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.25 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.187 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 169% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JULY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 2620 NOTICE(S) FOR 13,100,100 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY:19.365 MILLION OZ//
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE NO DOUBT HAD CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY OF SPREADING LIQUIDATION IN SILVER TODAY/IT WILL END AT THE CONCLUSION OF FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG 5054 CONTRACTS, TO 579,514 ACCOMPANYING THE  $6.10 PRICING DROP WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS STOPPED IN GOLD,..HOWEVER THESE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY MORPHED INTO SILVER AND THEY ARE NOW INTO THEIR CONCLUDING PHASE OF THEIR LIQUIDATION OPERATION WHICH ENDS AT 1:30 TODAY. 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED AN STRONG SIZED 8844 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 8844 CONTRACTS, DEC>  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 579,514.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 163,898 CONTRACTS: 5054 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 8844 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 13,898 CONTRACTS OR 1,389,800 OZ OR 43.22 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $6.10 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 43.22  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 206,473 CONTRACTS OR 20,647,300 oz OR 642.22 TONNES (20 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,323 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 642.22 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 642.22/3550 x 100% TONNES =18.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2,920.14 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

NOTE: THE HUGE INCREASE IN EFP ISSUANCE FOR GOLD

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 8844 DESPITE THE PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK ON YESTERDAY($6.10)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8844 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8844 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS  SIZED GAIN OF 13,898 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8844 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5054 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 43.22 TONNES). ..AND THIS INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.10 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO PRESENCE OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION/LIQUIDATION IN GOLD  ///TODAY/

 

 

 

we had:  371 notice(s) filed upon for 37,100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $90 TODAY//

ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES

WHICH WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD.

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SILVER SLV:

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2526 CONTRACTS from 223,138 DOWN TO 220,612 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 1188 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 0  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1188 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2526  CONTRACTS TO THE 1188 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  GOOD LOSS OF 1341 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS BUT ALSO SOME LIQUIDATION OF THOSE SPREADERS- COMEX CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6.705 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY, NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE…AND NOW 19.365 MILLION OZ FOR JULY.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 7 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1188 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.91 POINTS OR 0.60%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78.80 POINTS OR 0.28%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 62.65 POINTS OR 0.29%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .65%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8693 /Oil UP TO 59.57 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.75 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8693 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8740 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

 

 

i)China/

Two problem areas for China, the huge Pig Ebola that is wiping out the Chinese pig population and the “armyworm” caterpillar which has now invaded China from Burma and it is devastating the corn and other crops.  China can no longer afford to tariff USA agriculture. If Trump stays solid he will win the trade war.

( Kyle Bass)

ii)THIS IS A HUGE PROBLEM!!  China is witnessing a huge capital flight from its country

( Mish Shedlock)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

Game theory on the Brexit and the Irish backstop
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

ii)Europe

Huge heat wave hits Europe

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii) EU/USA/Iran

The following is a very important commentary and it will certainly cause Trump to go ballistic.  The EU announces that its new Instex
which by passes the uSA SWIFT payment system is now operational.  It was designed to help out Iran who are facing USA sanctions.
This would be the death blow to the dollar as a reserve currency.
( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

i)IRAN/USA

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Famed Paul Singer is now warning of a huge 40% market crash..He tells you why.

(courtesy Paul Singer/Elliott Management/zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)VENEZUELA/

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

A)Ted Butler in his latest piece wonders why the government is leaving JPMorgan alone.  Maybe it is because JPMorgan is the real broker for the uSA government and anything the government does it legal?

( Chris Powell/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

 

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

II)MARKET TRADING/USA

 

 

ii)Market data/USA

Not good: Chicago’s National PMI plunges into contraction collapsing from 54.2 down to 49.7.  A good indicator of problems in the Chicago mfg area

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)This is terrifying:  Bubonic plague in LA is becoming a reality…California is now on the verge of becoming a third world state

(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)

b)An extremely important read and this is in continuation of previous commentaries.  Brandon Smith believes that Powell may not lower rates and he will continue to run off his balance sheet.  Why? The Fed wants to implode the uSA economy.  He explains why

(courtesy Brandon Smith)

SWAMP STORIES

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
end
LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5054 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 579,514 DESPITE THE FALL OF $6.10 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8844 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 0 CONTRACTS , AUG; 8844 CONTRACTS: DEC: 0   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8844 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 13,898 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8844 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 5054 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  13,898 CONTRACTS OR 1,389,800 OZ OR 43.22 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of JULY and here the open interest stands at 425 CONTRACTS as we LOST 151 contracts. Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold standing in this non active month of July is as follows:  424 x 100 oz per contract =  42400 oz or 1.3188 tonnes. The next big active month after July for deliverable gold is the very active month of August and here the OI ROSE by a strong 2806 contracts UP to 418,399.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 371 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  37,100 OZ. (1.1539 TONNES)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2526 CONTRACTS FROM 223,138 DOWN TO 220,612 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A  7 CENT FALL IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.  HERE WE HAVE 3866 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY.  THUS BY DEFINITION THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY IS AS FOLLOWS:

3873 X 5000 OZ PER CONTRACT = 19,330.000 OZ

 

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER JULY IS AUGUST AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 18 CONTRACTS UP TO 1051. THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 6919 CONTRACTS UP TO 159,049 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2620 notice(s) filed for 13,100,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 300,229  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  355,822  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JULY/GOLD

June 28/2019/FIRST DAY NOTICE

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
5373 oz
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz  

1399.92 oz

Delaware

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

4707.621

oz

Scotia

Delaware

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
371 notice(s)
 37100 OZ
(1.1539 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
53 contracts
(5300 oz)
0.1648 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
371 notices
37100 OZ
1.1539 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 1 dealer entry:

i) Into Delaware:  1399.92 oz

total dealer deposits: 1399.92 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Delaware: 1207.621 oz

iii) Into Scotia: 3500.0000 oz ???

 

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 4707.61  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ a little amount  arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil   oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JULY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 272 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 371 contract(s) of which 88 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 26 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (371) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY. (424 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (371 x 100 oz per contract) equals 42,400 OZ OR 1.3188 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JULY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (371 x 100 oz)  + (424)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (371 x 100 oz )which equals 42,400 oz standing OR 1.3188 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of JULY.

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.0438 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 1.3188 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  322,526.843 oz or  10.0438 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,696,711.704 oz 239.40 tonnes

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
JULY 28  2019//FIRST DAY NOTICE
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 201,533.340 oz
Scotia
Delaware

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
350,370.850 oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
2,620
CONTRACT(S)
(13,100,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1246 contracts
6,230,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2620 contracts

13,100,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into Scotia:  350,370.850 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  350,370/850  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of Delaware  996.800 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 200,533.340 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 201,533.34  oz

 

we had 1 adjustments :

i) Out of CNT:

4,191,794.310 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

 

 

total dealer silver: 91.127 million

total dealer + customer silver:  306.313 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2019. contract month is represented by 2620 contract(s) FOR 13,100,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2620 x 5,000 oz = 13,100,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY. (3866) and the number of notices served upon today (2620 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 2620 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY((3866) number of notices served upon today (2620)x 5000 oz equals 19,330,000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2620 notice(s) filed for 13,100,000  OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  54,533 CONTRACTS

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 99,123 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 99,123 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 495 million  OZ 70.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.34% June 28/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.10% to NAV (JUNE 28/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.34%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.77 TRADING 13.23/DISCOUNT 3.96

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: ANOTHER 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD REMOVED AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD AT THE COMEX/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.61 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP  $8.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY/STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP 0.85 TODAY: A MONSTROUS PAPER GAIN OF 16.44 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.65 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE, A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 30: WITH GOLD UP $6.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JUNE 28/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 795.80 tonnes

*IN LAST 617 TRADING DAYS: 138.96 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 517 TRADING DAYS: A NET 26.67 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.575 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 9 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZE DEPOSIT OF 630,087 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.396 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.434 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 422,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ/

May 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ///

MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/

MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 311.616 MILLION OZ

MAY 21: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ

 

 

JUNE 28/2019:

 

Inventory 322.394 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.06/ and libor 6 month duration 2.21`

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .15

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.87%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.18

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.31

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Credit Suisse: Gold May Retest Record High of $1,921

28, June

Gold prices are marginally higher today and look set to have their best monthly gain since June 2016.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,413.60 per ounce in late morning trading in Europe. Gold has risen over 8% this month so far. A monthly close above $1,400/oz will be positive from a technical trading perspective.

Gold prices have surged to the highest since 2013 as the U.S. and global economy slows and due to the likelihood of a return to ultra loose monetary policies. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between an aligned Iran, Russia and China versus the U.S. is also leading to safe haven demand. U.S.-Iran relations have deteriorated sharply whereby war has become a very real possibly alas.

Trade, economic and geopolitical uncertainty have seen safe haven demand return and pushed prices higher. There are real concerns ahead of the very important trade talks between China and the United States this weekend.

The meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping may determine the next phase in this dispute and whether the U.S.-China trade war deescalates or escalates.

Gold traders will be reluctant to go short today due to the scale of risks ahead of the likely Trump and Xi talks. Indeed some may move to cover their short positions as if there is no progress in ending the year-long trade dispute or indeed tensions escalate, gold will likely go higher.

Gold’s mood music has changed radically in the last month and banks, hedge funds and other institutions internationally have become much more bullish on gold. They are revising upwards their price forecasts for gold in 2019 and the coming years.

Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley are two such institution and they see gold having strong gains in the second half of 2019.

Credit Suisse analysts, like us, see gold returning to it’s record nominal high of $1,921/oz.

“Bigger picture though, given the magnitude of the base, which has taken six years to form, we suspect we could even see a retest of the $1,921 record high,” according to David Sneddon, global head of technical analysis at Credit Suisse.

Gold has established a multiyear base that could provide the platform for a “significant and long- lasting rally” for gold, he said. We concur with this view and indeed are more bullish as we see gold going to well over $3,000/oz in the long term

-END-

ii) Physical stories courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Ted Butler in his latest piece wonders why the government is leaving JPMorgan alone.  Maybe it is because JPMorgan is the real broker for the uSA government and anything the government does it legal?

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

Ted Butler: Stranger than fiction

 Section: 

12:08p ET Thursday, June 27, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In his new essay, “Stranger than Fiction,” silver market rigging whistleblower Ted Butler wonders why the U.S. Justice Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission penalize some investment houses for rigging the monetary metals markets while leaving JPMorganChase free to rig them.

Here’s a possibility: JPMorganChase is acting as broker for the U.S. government, which, under the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, as amended since then, is fully authorized to rig any market in the world.

… 

Indeed, JPMorganChase’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, and the former chief of its commodity desk, Blythe Masters, replying a few years ago to complaints of rigging in the monetary metals markets, said the bank had no position of its own in those markets and traded them only for clients.

Here’s Masters saying so on CNBC in 2012, beginning at the 2:35 mark:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gc9Me4qFZYo

Of course nobody but GATA has ever asked JPMorganChase if the clients for whom the bank trades the monetary metals markets include governments and central banks. The bank refused even to acknowledge GATA’s inquiry.

Now if CNBC or some other major financial news organization asked the question, was brushed off, and reported the brushoff, that might be the beginning of change. But the first rule of mainstream financial journalism these days is: Never put a critical question about market intervention to a government or central bank. It might spoil their party.

Butler’s commentary is headlined “Stranger than Fiction” and it’s posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here —

http://silverseek.com/commentary/stranger-fiction-17678

— and at 24hGold here:

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-stranger-than-fiction.as…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Stranger Than Fiction

Theodore Butler

|

June 27, 2019 – 8:53am

 

Yesterday, the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced yet another settlement, both criminal and civil, for “spoofing” and market manipulation in COMEX precious metals, this time against Merrill Lynch, a unit of Bank of America. The infractions occurred hundreds of times starting at least in 2008 and continuing through 2014. While Merrill Lynch and Bank America settled criminal charges via a deferred prosecution agreement and a $25 million fine, separate criminal charges are pending against a number of former individual traders.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/merrill-lynch-commodities-inc-enters-corporate-resolution-and-agrees-pay-25-million

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7946-19

Considering that a straight criminal charge and/or conviction could easily have resulted in, effectively, putting Merrill Lynch out of business (many cities, states and government entities are forbidden from doing business with convicted felons), Merrill and BAC got off easy. For the umpteenth time, price manipulation is the most serious market crime possible and Merrill just dodged a bullet that could have been fatal.

Not so lucky, of course, were the many victims of Merrill Lynch’s criminal activities who are unlikely to collect a penny for the long-running gold and silver price manipulation. Apparently, this is what comes of high-level corporate crime in the US – a wrist slap of a fine, a dubious trophy on some prosecutor’s mantle and an avoidance of the real issues.

What makes this all stranger than fiction is that the settlement covers nearly the exact time period that the CFTC (with DOJ involvement according to the late Bart Chilton) was involved in a formal five year investigation into a COMEX silver investigation which ended in 2013 with no findings of wrongdoing. Neither the CFTC nor the Justice Department could find anything wrong with silver (or gold) back then, but now each can recite chapter and verse about all the wrongdoing that took place at that time. What are the odds that the CFTC could have been inundated with more allegations of a silver manipulation than any other complaint in its history and for it to conclude repeatedly those allegations had no substance, only to come back years later saying plenty was wrong? Thanks for nothing.

Strangest of all is that the regulators are doing everything possible to avoid the 800 pound gorilla in the room – the real precious metals manipulation being run by JPMorgan since it acquired Bear Stearns in 2008.  You know, the one by which JPM was the largest futures contract short seller on the COMEX and then used the resultant depressed prices to accumulate massive amounts of physical gold and silver. Next to what JPMorgan has done over the past decade, the spoofing charges are relatively child’s play.

I will admit that spoofing (the entering and immediate cancellation of large orders solely intended to manipulate prices in the short term) was so repetitive and serious enough to result in the complete surrender by Merrill Lynch and Bank of America to everything alleged by the DOJ in return for the prize of “only” a deferred criminal prosecution agreement. And it is good that spoofing has finally been cracked down on as those of us who complained about it for years would attest. But spoofing is only one of many tools used in the real price manipulation run by JPMorgan.

One thing is certain – the DOJ has the means, should it so choose, to truly crack down on anyone for spoofing or market manipulation, including JPMorgan (since it has an ongoing case on that aided by a criminal guilty plea by a former trader).  Complicating matters for JPMorgan is that, unlike Merrill, it already has in place an outstanding criminal deferred prosecution agreement with the DOJ from the Madoff scandal (how many such agreements are allowed before you are considered a stone-cold crook?).

There can be no doubt that the Justice Department went light on Merrill and Bank America to avoid the consequences and aftermath of a straight criminal finding, as was possible under the law.  How would it impact the financial system and serve the public good to, effectively, put either out of business? That goes in spades for JPMorgan. But whereas spoofing is largely a thing of the past, JPMorgan still looms large in the much more significant ongoing silver and gold manipulation – or at least it has until very recently.

The Nov 6 announcement by the Justice Department of a criminal guilty plea by an ex-trader from JPMorgan for spoofing and market manipulation, as well as there being an ongoing investigation of same did not immediately bring an end to JPM’s real manipulation (contrary to my hopes and expectations at the time). I say this because on the rally in gold and silver prices that commenced a week after the DOJ’s announcement and that lasted until the end of February, JPMorgan did as it always had done on every silver and gold rally over the past 11 years, namely, sold short enough in COMEX futures to cap both rallies. Gold and silver prices then declined into the end of May and JPMorgan bought back all of its added COMEX short sales at a profit – the same as it had done continuously since early 2008. And yes, JPMorgan continued to accumulate physical silver as well.

Over the past four weeks, there has been a very spirited rally in gold and a much less than impressive rally in silver. Since May 28, gold has surged by as much as $160 (12.5%), while silver has struggled to rise by as much as a dollar or so (7%). The only documented cause for the rise in the gold price has been massive managed money buying in COMEX gold futures, although the past few days has seen some significant net deposits in GLD, reflecting net investment buying due to the COMEX-induced price increase. While there has also been significant managed money buying in silver, that buying has not caused silver prices to rise as sharply as gold prices, either because it was not sufficient enough or because the sellers were much more aggressive in silver than they were in gold.

The great unknown at this point, particularly in silver, is the extent of short selling by JPMorgan into this rally. My sense is that JPM has been a moderate short seller in gold, but I am unsure about its short selling in silver. JPMorgan did go into the silver rally net long by about 6000 contracts or so, and while I believe it has sold out its longs (at profits), I’m not sure if it has added COMEX silver short positions. This Friday’s COT report might shed some light on this, as will the following COT and Bank Participation reports scheduled for Monday July 8.

As far as what to expect in Friday’s COT report, I’m going to stick with my previous guesses of 50,000 net contracts in gold and 15,000 net contracts in silver for managed money buying and commercial selling, although higher numbers in gold wouldn’t surprise me.  My main concern is what JPMorgan may have done.

I’ve noticed a literal explosion of commentaries extolling the virtues of an impending silver price explosion, given how badly it has lagged the gold rally. I’m certainly not about to argue with an explosion in silver prices, although I do note with curiosity that few expecting such an explosion point to developments on the COMEX. If we do get an explosion in silver prices, it must be related to COMEX positioning and, more specifically, the positioning (or lack thereof) of JPMorgan.

With so many managed money contracts having been bought over the past four weeks, leading to what must be considered a bearish market structure in gold, it wouldn’t be surprising to witness a price setback. On the other hand, we are still miles above the key moving averages in gold (not so in silver), and if the managed money traders remain true to past form, they will be reluctant to sell until such averages are penetrated to the downside. The most comparable previous time in gold to now was the run up in 2016, when massive managed money buying wasn’t liquidated until much later in the year.

To be sure, if we do experience a sharp selloff in gold or silver (not something I’m predicting), it will be for the sole reason of managed money selling on the COMEX.  Still lost in all the new talk of Justice Department findings of manipulation through spoofing is the recognition that the proof of a bigger ongoing manipulation is right in front of us. Why should a handful of large paper traders on the COMEX dictate to the rest of the world what prices should be? What is strangest of all is that the manipulation is so obvious and in your face that most can’t seem to focus on it. Speculative paper positioning should never set prices, yet it clearly does.

It seems to me that the Justice Department sees the silver manipulation clearly, but is reluctant to drop the hammer on JPMorgan for fear of the consequences of finding JPM criminally culpable. It just demonstrated that in the case against Merrill Lynch.  At the same time, however, neither can the DOJ address simple questions directed to it.

http://silverseek.com/commentary/questions-only-doj-can-get-answered-17543

Unfortunately for the DOJ, the case against JPMorgan is so straightforward so as to be inescapable. Being the largest paper short seller for more than a decade and then using the resultant depressed prices to accumulate more physical silver (and gold) than anyone in history is such a cut and dried market manipulation that a jury of 12 year olds could decide the matter in minutes. Yes, I understand that putting JPMorgan out of business works against the collective interest, but so does letting these crooks continue to manipulate.

The only practical alternative is for the Justice Department to force JPMorgan to end the silver (and gold) manipulation quietly and without the repercussions of straight criminal charges. Regardless of the precise format such an order would involve, the direct visible result would be an explosion in the price of silver, practically the minute JPM lifts its heavy hand off the price. I thinks most silver investors and producers could live with that.

Ted Butler

June 27, 2019

END

For your interest..

Gold’s naked shorts may have to rely on NASA’s asteroid exploration

 Section: 

Space Gold Rush: NASA to Explore Asteroid 16 Psyche, Which Is So Valuable It Could Crash the World’s Economy

By Margi Murphy
The Sun, London
January 18, 2018

NASA is planning a mission to an asteroid so valuable it could cause the world’s economy to collapse.

The mysterious “metal world” was formed during the turbulent birth of our solar system.

It is valued at L8,072 quadrillion ($10,000 quadrillion), according to Lindy Elkins-Tanton, the lead scientist on the NASA mission.

… 

But bringing back an asteroid of this value could completely wipe out the economy.

Fortunately, Nasa doesn’t have the tech to lasso any soaring space rocks and drag them back to our planet. But the space agency is planning to visit it by 2023….

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2642475/nasa-to-explore-asteroid-16-psyche…

* * *

END

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8693/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8740   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 17.91 POINTS OR 0.60%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 78.80 POINTS OR 0.28%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 62.75 POINTS OR 0.29%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT 

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 96.18/Euro RISES TO 1.1376

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.16/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.73/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 59.57 and Brent: 65.75

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.33%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.09% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.41%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.42: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.44

3k Gold at $1412.60 silver at: 15.26   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 12/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.93

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.51 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9754 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1103 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.33%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.01% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.53%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7697..

Nervous Markets Coiled In Anticipation Ahead Of Critical Trump-Xi Meeting

US futures and European stocks edged higher albeit in a low-volume session, with bond markets trading sideways ahead of G-20 kickoff in Osaka, as markets took early comments from Xi and Trump broadly in stride even as growing uncertainty ahead of the critical meeting between the two world leaders deterred traders from making bold directional bets.

After Asian stock markets slipped, European shares were marginally higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index up 0.08%. Germany’s DAX index was the biggest gainer, up 0.36% percent on the day. Europe’s Stoxx 50 rose +0.3%, while the e-mini S&P future tracked Europe, and was up +0.2%.

In the day’s main event, Trump and Xi will meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit this weekend in Osaka, Japan, for talks that could help resolve a year-long trade war between China and the United States, as signs proliferate of rising risks to global growth. Of course, it is just as likely that nothing happens.

Market participants are taking a cautious approach ahead of this high-level meeting as hopes for a material breakthrough are low,” said ADSS head of research, Konstantinos Anthis. “This is a stellar opportunity for the two leaders to find some common ground and unless they do so, equities will likely push lower as a prolonged period of tariffs on each other’s exports will take a heavier toll on both economies and global growth.”

Due to the uncertainty, the MSCI All Country World Index was up just 0.04% on the day; the index was set to break a three-week streak of gains but also on course for its best month since January, gaining nearly 6% in June as equities rallied globally on the back of a pivot towards easier monetary policy from major central banks. That shift came after a breakdown in trade negotiations between the United States and China earlier this year, and has markets betting on an interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as the next policy meeting in July.

On Thursday, China’s central bank also joined the party when it pledged to support a slowing economy, ahead of the release of data that is expected to show China’s factory activity shrank for a second consecutive month in June.

That, however, was not enough to boost Asian markets as the MSCI Asia-Pacific index ex-Japan fell 0.1% with energy and material firms leading Asian shares lower. Japan’s Topix gauge slipped 0.1%, driven by Daikin Industries and Central Japan Railway, even as Japanese factory output beat estimates; the Nikkei stock index ended down 0.29%, while Chinese blue chips fell 0.24% on Friday and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.32%. Australian shares shed 0.71%.

The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.6%, with PetroChina Co. and Kweichow Moutai among the biggest drags. The People’s Bank of China softened its tone on financial risk management, indicating an effort to allay fears for a possible funding squeeze. The S&P BSE Sensex Index dropped 0.3%, as traders gauged the scope of possible stimulus in a federal budget next week. Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy Services and HDFC Bank dragged the Indian benchmark lower.

In Europe, stocks traded in proximity to unchanged, while euro zone government bond yields hovered near record lows in many cases ahead of the release of inflation data for the bloc. With the euro zone reporting inflation of 1.2% for the month of June — well short of the European Central Bank’s target of just below 2% — investors held on to government bonds in early trade. Core European yields steady to 1bp higher, with 10-yr BTP/bund spread 6bps tighter at 240bps. UST yields steady to 1bp higher in the 2-yr through 10-yr maturities.

Heading into the G-20, on Thursday White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that Trump had agreed to no preconditions for the meeting with Xi and is maintaining his threat to impose new tariffs on Chinese goods. Kudlow also dismissed a Wall Street Journal report that China was insisting on lifting sanctions on Chinese telecom equipment giant Huawei Technologies Co Ltd as part of a trade deal and that the Trump administration had tentatively agreed to delay new tariffs on Chinese goods.

“I’m not sure the Americans can deliver what the Chinese want and the Chinese don’t want to deliver what the Americans want,”said Greg McKenna, strategist at McKenna Macro, adding that he sees an “extend and pretend” outcome, in which Chinese and U.S. officials agree to continue talks, as the most likely outcome of the weekend meeting. Regardless of the outcome, McKenna said, “we will not be in a holding pattern on Monday morning.”

Currency markets also reflected caution, with the Japanese yen reversing a three-day losing streak against the dollar. Bloomberg dollar index traded lower again by 0.1%, set to turn in its worst monthly performance since the start of 2018. Bets on interest rate cuts from the Fed have pushed the dollar index down 1.7% this month. All G-10 currencies ex-NOK gaining versus the greenback. In commodities, gold trades +0.3% at $1414, with both Brent ($66.24) and WTI ($59.20) lower.

In commodity markets, trade worries continued to weigh on oil, with U.S. crude losing 0.3% to $59.26 a barrel and global benchmark Brent crude down 0.36% to $66.31 per barrel. The weak dollar and uncertainty over global trade saw gold rebound after dipping below $1,400 per ounce on Thursday. Spot gold was last traded at $1,414.15 per ounce, up 0.35%, but down from earlier highs.

Expected data include personal income and spending, as well as University of Michigan Sentiment. Constellation Brands is reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,938.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 383.23
  • MXAP down 0.09% to 160.21
  • MXAPJ down 0.1% to 528.48
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 21,275.92
  • Topix down 0.1% to 1,551.14
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 28,542.62
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 2,978.88
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 39,499.81
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 6,618.77
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,130.62
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to -0.313%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1390
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 1.772%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.389%
  • Brent futures down 0.4% to $66.32/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,413.71
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 96.07

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • President Trump wants a weaker dollar to help boost exports, and is counting on the Federal Reserve to help make that happen. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made clear it’s not his job
  • Euro-area inflation was unchanged well below the European Central Bank’s goal in June, despite a faster-than-expected pickup in underlying prices. The rate of growth was 1.2%, in line with economists’ estimates
  • Trump lightheartedly asked Russian President Vladimir Putin not to interfere in the upcoming U.S. election during a meeting at the G-20 summit, their first since Special Counsel Robert Mueller documented alleged Kremlin efforts to manipulate the 2016 vote
  • With speculation still bubbling that the Bank of Japan’s next move will be further stimulus, a BOJ board member tried to rule out a lowering of Japanese interest rates, saying they were already close to an unfavorable tipping point
  • Hedge funds have turned bullish on the yen for the first time in a year amid rising global tensions, even as Japanese retail investors have boosted shorts on the currency to the most in 15 months betting sinking bond yields will spur outflows
  • Policy makers in Beijing are trying to funnel cash into the economy while warding off a re-inflation of the property market bubble, a task made doubly hard by the uncertainty generated by the intensifying trade war

Asian equity markets were subdued amid book squaring heading into the end of H1 and ahead of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting at the G20. ASX 200 (-0.7%) was led lower by mining names with BHP pressured as it is expected to pay AUD 250mln as settlement in the royalty dispute with Western Australia, although downside for the broader market was limited by outperformance in tech and financials, while Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) also suffered losses in the commodity-related sectors and with exporters weighed by detrimental flows into the currency. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) weakened amid continued PBoC inaction and as trade uncertainty remained rife heading into the US-China showdown at the G20. Finally, 10yr JGBs tracked the upside in their US counterparts with prices lifted by safe-haven flows and amid the BoJ presence in the market for JPY 720bln of government bonds in the belly to super-long end.

Top Asia News

  • Australia Pension Managers in Talks to Create A$22 Billion Fund

Major European indices are just into positive territory after a tentative and mixed/flat open [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%] as the G20 summit gets underway and markets move into month, quarter and half end. Within the bourses the SMI (-0.2%) is the modest underperformer as we approach the Sunday expiry of temporary measures introduced by the EU which allow Swiss Co’s to be traded on EU exchanges; most recently the Swiss Government stated they will block trading of Swiss shares in the EU following the Commission stating they do not see reason to extend the measures beyond June. In terms of this morning notable movers, significantly outperforming at the top of the Stoxx 600 are Merlin Entertainment (+14.0%) after reports that the Co. had received a GBP 6bln offer from the Lego Family, Blackstone & a Canadian fund. On the back of yesterday’s Fed stress tests where all banks capital plans were approved Deutsche Bank (+3.7%) are the outperforming financial name; however, Credit Suisse (-1.0%) are lagging their peers after receiving only conditional approval and being the Co. must now address the relevant weaknesses.

Top European News

  • Rutte Says the EU Must Intervene Over Italy’s Public Finances
  • Italy May Nominate ECB Chief Draghi for Top EU Job, Stampa Says
  • Volkswagen’s Truck Unit Opens Flat in Frankfurt Trading Debut
  • Berlin Scares Off Banks Targeting the Rich as Fintechs Boom

In FX, the broad Dollar and Index remain in a relatively confined 96.05-25 range as markets gear up for tomorrow’s US-Sino showdown. US President Trump said that he believes the meeting with his Chinese counterpart (at 0330BST tomorrow) will be “productive at minimum”. The comments somewhat reaffirmed market expectations for a restart in talks, but no breakthrough. The index currently hovers closer to the bottom of the intraday range ahead of the psychological 96.00 and its 200 WMA at 95.97, while to the upside, technicians will be eyeing resistance at 96.37 (50 WMA). Meanwhile, US Core PCE and comments from Fed’s Daly are unlikely to sway the Buck ahead of the weekend’s risk event. In a similar vein, CNH is caged within a tight 6.86-88 range vs Greenback but is ultimately flat, having briefly dipped below its 50 DMA at 6.8675.

  • EUR, GBP, NZD, AUD, JPY, CHF – All largely benefitting from a marginally softer USD, albeit the EUR also feels tailwind from touted month-end EUR/GBP buying, which aided the pair climb to levels last seen in January. EUR was little moved by the release of overall encouraging inflation data in which the core and super-core figures topped estimates while the headline matched expectations. EUR/USD remains near the top of a 1.1360-90 intraday band with around 1bln in options scattered around strikes 1.1375-85. Meanwhile, the GBP is benefiting slightly less from a softer USD amid the aforementioned EUR/GBP buying as Cable remains within a tight band under 1.2700. Elsewhere the AUD and NZD have similarly jumped on the back of a softer Buck and over close to HODs of 0.7017 and 0.6710 respectively, albeit off best levels. Finally, the safe heaven FX follow suit from the tentative tone in the FX market, although positioning before the end of the trading day may sway the currencies. USD/JPY hovers just above the near the bottom of a 107.57-83 range with 2.1bln in options expiring at 107.50 at today’s NY cut.
  • NOK, SEK – The Swedish Crown has pared back recent losses vs. the EUR after dismal retail sales extended the pair’s intraday upper bound to 10.5850, albeit the SEK has since pared back those losses and trades flat on the day thus far. Meanwhile, the NOK was little fazed by the regional unemployment figures and fares slightly worse but ultimately on the back of softer energy prices.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are cautious ahead talks between US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart. The benchmarks found supports USD 59/bbl and USD 66/bbl respectively but remain subdued on the day. Post-G20, the energy market will be looking forward to the delayed OPEC+ meeting in which the oil producers are expected to roll over the output curbs but still seem split on potential revisions to the pact. Russia still remains the unknown, despite Energy Minister Novak stating that consensus will be found in July, however “the potential downside risk in the market in the event of a no deal will likely be enough to persuade Russia to continue” ING says. Back to G20, analysts remind us that talks between Russian President Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman will also be monitored as it may influence the cartel’s decision. Elsewhere, gold is marginally firmer on the day as a function of a weaker Dollar. In light of the recent gold rally, UBS has raised its 3-month gold forecast to USD 1430/oz from USD 1380/oz. Meanwhile, Copper remains above the USD 2.7/lb as the softer USD outweighs the supply resumptions from the end of strikes at the Coldeco Chuquicamata mine. The workers, after 14 days, have accepted the latest offer and miners returned to work today.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%; Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%; PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 1.5%
  • 9:45am: MNI Chicago PMI, est. 53.5, prior 54.2
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97.9, prior 97.9; Current Conditions, prior 112.5; Expectations, prior 88.6

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m at a big 2-day macro DB hosted conference at the moment with investors representing over 25 trillion of investable capital attending. There were a few shows of hands through day one to gauge the mood and a couple of the interesting takeaways from me was that about 90% expected 10yr US yields to go to 1.70% next versus 2.30%, and around a similar percentage expected the Euro construct to look similar in 10 years time than it does today (in terms of countries in it) – so relatively sanguine about Italy. On the second question I was one of the 10%! The conference was held in beautiful 30 degree London sunshine but that seems to have been near Arctic like conditions compared to what was the hottest June day on record in mainland Europe. My wife has gone away on her own for a long weekend to Scotland to cool down and is away from the children overnight for the first time since they started to come along like buses nearly four years ago. The problem with that is I’m petrified as I now take sole charge of them all for the longest period of time so far in my brief (and sometimes chaotic) parenting career. Given the weather, immediately after I type this I’m going to search for blow up paddling pools on Amazon Prime! What could possibly go wrong?

The same might be said about the G-20 that starts today. A resolution might be highly unlikely, but will markets have any greater clarity as to which path trade talks travel down next in a little under 24 hours’ time? Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet at 11.30am local time tomorrow morning. That is 3.30am in London and 10.30pm tonight in New York for those who want to base their whole weekend around it. Hopefully it won’t interfere with my solo parenting. Unsurprisingly, the headlines second-guessing what may or may not happen have picked up in recent days with the latest being the WSJ story yesterday suggesting that Xi will insist on any trade truce including the US lifting the Huawei ban, though he will also reportedly offer new support for the US vis-à-vis Iran and North Korea. Given the rhetoric that surrounded the Huawei ban when it was announced, plus the fact that law enforcement is theoretically separate from trade policy, the bar for progress on that front feels high. That said, Larry Kudlow did say that “we may change our views” if “China is willing to offer us a good deal,” so maybe there is scope for some movement.

We should note that by the time we hit send on this Trump is due to meet with Russia’s Putin so that could be one to watch for markets. The early headlines out of the summit are unsurprisingly about trade with Trump saying that he expects to announce “very big” trade deals with both Japan and India while Xi in a meeting with African leaders ahead of the summit condemned protectionism and “bullying practices,” saying, “any attempt to put one’s own interests first and undermine others’ will not win any popularity”. At the BRICS nations gathering, Xi said that protectionism is “destroying the global trade order… This also impacts common interests of our countries, overshadows the peace and stability world wide.” On Iran, Trump said that there was “absolutely no time pressure” to deal with the country. Meanwhile on the WTO, Indian PM Modi called for its reform while Russian President Putin said that “We consider counter-productive any attempts to destroy WTO or to lower its role”. Separately, a White House official said Trump wanted to promote to Abe and Modi “a resilient quality secure infrastructure” – a reference to the US push with allies to keep Huawei out of next generation telecoms networks.

Asian markets are heading lower ahead of the anticipated meeting between Trump and Xi tomorrow amidst lower than average volumes. The Nikkei (-0.39%), Hang Seng (-0.56%), Shanghai Comp (-0.88%) and Kospi (-0.16%) are all down thereby partly erasing yesterday’s gains. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.10%. In terms of overnight data releases, Japan’s preliminary May industrial production came in at +2.3% mom (vs. +0.7% expected).

Also overnight and after the US market close, all 18 banks passed the qualitative US Fed stress test which was a positive surprise. The results for the US banks gave them the green light to proceed with their capital plans. The major firms all announced enhanced buyback and dividend programs and their share prices gained further in after-hours trading. Bank of America (+1.77% after hours) will buy back $30.9bn in stock, JP Morgan (+1.63%) will buy $29.4bn, and Wells Fargo (+1.21%) will buy $23.1bn. Goldman Sachs (+2.46%) and Morgan Stanley (+1.61%) announced buybacks of $7bn and $6bn, respectively. All the major firms boosted their dividends as well.

This followed a healthier day in US equities yesterday which culminated in the S&P 500 (+0.38%) halting a four-day slide. The NASDAQ (+0.73%) also closed higher while banks (+0.78%) led at a sector level even before the stress test results. The DOW (-0.04%) underperformed as Boeing slid -2.93% after US regulators found new safety risks in the troubled 737 Max aircraft after fresh tests. In Europe, the STOXX 600 ebbed and flowed in another fairly tight range before ultimately ending flat. Bond markets weren’t a lot more interesting, though treasuries resumed their recent rally, with 10y yields down -3.3bps and 2-year yields a more modest -2.6bps. Bunds traded down -1.8bps while peripheral bonds were near flat on the day. Oil (-0.15%) and Gold (flat) also had quiet sessions, but Bitcoin’s selloff went into overdrive (-16.09%) making it -22.85% lower from the peak just before the close the previous night. However, this morning in Asia the crypto currency is back up +3.64 taking month-to-date gains to +30.11%, which is still quite impressive but feels somewhat flat after reaching gain of +62.90% on the month late on Wednesday. In other currency markets, the dollar traded flat yesterday and EM currencies advanced +0.13%.

The data didn’t add a huge amount to the session. Of note was the unexpected upward revision to Q1 core PCE in the US of two-tenths to +1.2% qoq saar. Whether or not that will change the inflation views of any of the Fed officials remains to be seen, however San Francisco Fed President Daly gave modestly dovish comments yesterday. She said that while “it’s too early to know whether we should” ease policy, she is also unsure about the “magnitude of the tool we should apply.” This seemed to open the door to the possibility of a 50bps rate cut, though equally it would be consistent with no change in rate policy next month. Short-end Treasuries still closed lower on the day in yield while Fed Funds contracts are still pricing in 33bps of cuts for the next FOMC meeting. It’s worth noting that today we get the May PCE inflation report in the US where the consensus expects a +0.2% mom reading and a one-tenth move lower in the annual rate to +1.5% yoy. Yesterday’s data does however help lessen the risk of a rounding lower in the annual rate however.

The other data out in the US yesterday included the third revision to Q1 GDP which was unchanged at +3.1% qoq – a modest disappointment compared to the expectation for a one-tenth rise. Meanwhile jobless claims were reported as rising 10k to 227k, while pending home sales rose +1.1% mom in May and broadly as expected, while the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index dipped 4pts to 0, which mirrors other recent soft survey data.

In Germany the preliminary June CPI reading came in at +0.1% mom and +1.3% yoy, both higher than expected, while June confidence indicators for the Euro Area were a bit softer across the board, including economic confidence which dropped -2pts to 103.3 and the lowest since August 2016.

Looking at the day ahead, the May PCE inflation report in the US this afternoon is the highlight of the data calendar while the G-20 meeting will be the other obvious big focus, albeit with the main meeting still to come tomorrow. The other data releases due out today in Europe includes the May import price index in Germany, preliminary June CPI reports for France, Italy and the Euro Area, and final Q1 GDP revisions. In the US we’ll also get the May personal income and spending prints, June MNI Chicago PMI and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey revisions. The Fed’s Daly will also speak this evening.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.91 POINTS OR 0.60%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78.80 POINTS OR 0.28%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 62.65 POINTS OR 0.29%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .65%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8693 /Oil UP TO 59.57 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.75 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8693 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8740 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3c China/Chinese affairs

Two problem areas for China, the huge Pig Ebola that is wiping out the Chinese pig population and the “armyworm” caterpillar which has now invaded China from Burma and it is devastating the corn and other crops.  China can no longer afford to tariff USA agriculture. If Trump stays solid he will win the trade war.

(courtesy Kyle Bass)

Kyle Bass: Massive “Pig Ebola” Epidemic Gives Trump Big Leverage In China Trade Deal

Authored by Kyle Bass and Daniel Babich, op-ed via The Daily Caller,

Our advice to President Trump ahead of the next stage in the U.S.-China trade talks is encapsulated in a Chinese proverb: Patience is a bitter plant, but its fruit is sweet.”

The threat to food availability and security from Chinese pig Ebola and fall armyworm will prevent China from aggressively using tariffs as an offensive weapon against the U.S. over the coming year. Just as the poor structure of China’s leveraged economy necessitates that they return to the negotiating table with the U.S. ⁠— the largest buyer of its goods ⁠— food insecurity in China will oblige them to put aside their main retaliatory tool and start earnestly negotiating with the U.S.

 

President Trump needs to both recognize his leverage in these trade talks and have the confidence that China’s primary source of counter-leverage has a short expiration date.

The structural state of China’s economy is in peril after a decade of reckless credit growth. Following the great financial crisis, the Chinese government pursued economic growth at all costs, which has left them with high financial leverage and bad debts. As a result, China’s U.S. dollar shortage has become acute. These structural problems leave the Chinese economy and financial system vulnerable to a slowdown.

In response to the imposition of U.S. tariffs, China retaliated by imposing tariffs on 99% of all U.S. agricultural exports. These were devised to hurt senators who represent agricultural states ahead of the 2020 election. Understandably, U.S. farmers and their political representatives have reacted with great alarm. Currently U.S. pork exports to China are subject to a 62% tariff and soybeans are subject to a 27% tariff, while chicken exports are outright banned. U.S. farmers are hoping these tariffs will be lifted imminently as part of an eventual trade deal.

Regardless of the outcome of negotiations between Presidents Trump and Xi at the upcoming G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan on June 28, the pain inflicted on U.S. farmers by China is just short-term and soon will be over. The terrible reality for the Chinese is that China is facing an unprecedented combination of agricultural challenges: Chinese pig Ebola (also known as African swine fever) and fall armyworm. These threats have already impacted Chinese agricultural production and will take an even greater toll in 2020.

This file photograph taken on August 10, 2018, shows pigs resting in a pen at a pig farm in Yiyang county, in China’s central Henan province. – Unprecedented situation in the world meat market, the ravages of the African swine fever epidemic in China are strongly increasing the prices of pork: a boon for breeders across the world in this Chinese year of the pig. (Photo by GREG BAKER/AFP/Getty Images)

Chinese pig Ebola is a severe and highly virulent disease nearly always fatal to hogs but purportedly harmless to humans. The virus moves effortlessly between pigs and can stay alive for great time and distances in feed, workers’ clothing, equipment, ticks, and mud. There is no vaccine nor cure. Previous outbreaks have been extremely destructive and difficult to control. According to the British Veterinary Association, CPE  “is an acute viral hemorrhagic fever which, in domestic pigs and wild boar, results in case fatalities approaching 100 per cent.”

This particular outbreak of African swine fever has already proven to be the deadliest in world history. Christine McCracken, senior animal protein analyst for global lender Rabobank says, “It’s historic; there’s never been anything like this in the history of modern animal production. And it’s a frightening situation only in that there is no current control.”

In fact, the disease has already spread to Mongolia, Vietnam, Cambodia North Korea, South Korea and parts of Europe. McCracken estimates that 200 million pigs (roughly half of China’s pig population and 25% of the global pig population) or more will die this year.  Others (including Hayman) believe that to completely eradicate the disease, the entire Chinese pig herd may die this year. China’s Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs reportedly claim a 20% reduction in the Chinese hog population, but various professional estimates have the decline closer to 40% with an even larger reduction in the sow population (down 80-90% in many provinces in China), which is a leading indicator of the level of Chinese pork output in coming months.

China is both the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork, at around 50% of the world’s pork supply and 20% of the world’s animal protein supply. The global cross-border trade in pork (i.e., total global exports) only constitute 15% of Chinese demand.If the worst-case scenarios come true and nearly the entire Chinese hog herd is affected, then China will need to import massive amounts of U.S. pork, regardless of the state of U.S.-China trade talks.

To make matters worse, the fall armyworm, a caterpillar which damages crops, including corn, soybeans, rice, and sugarcane, has spread into China from Myanmar and is now running rampant in 15 southern Chinese provinces. The USDA attaché in Beijing forecasts that the fall armyworm will spread to the corn growing regions in the north of China by the fall of 2019. Previous infestations have resulted in a reduction in corn yields by at least 20%. Crop losses in Africa have recently exceeded 70% due to the army worm. China as the world’s second largest corn producer, after the U.S., is facing a second unprecedented threat which must ultimately lead to higher grain imports.

China is facing an imminent protein and food shortage. The price of pork and other proteins in China will skyrocket this year. In fact, China’s national average pig price is already up +15.4% for the month of June, +30.4% for 2019, and up +53% over the past year. Looking forward to 2020, acute protein shortages will require China to significantly increase animal protein imports globally in order to maintain current consumption patterns. The purchases will be sourced directly from the U.S., regardless of the presence of tariffs, or from other animal protein exporting countries, such as Germany, Spain, and Denmark (as long as CPE hasn’t already killed their herds).  Chinese pig Ebola will cause a biblical global shortage of pork for years to come.

END

THIS IS A HUGE PROBLEM!!  China is witnessing a huge capitalflight from its country

(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

 

Exposing China’s Other Big Problem – Massive Capital Flight

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

China’s currency reserves ought to be increasing given its persistent trade surplus.

They aren’t… due to capital flight.

Adam Tooze@adam_tooze

“China’s travel-account deficit began to increase sharply in 2014. = 80% of deficit in service trade” It is calc frm forex trade at banks in China, payments by credit cards and smartphones, ATMs by tourists going overseas and students studying abroad.”https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/Quiet-capital-flight-dents-China-s-sway-as-1.2tn-disappears 

Question of the Day?

Adam Tooze@adam_tooze

While China’s surplus grew by $2 trillion from 2009 to 2018, its external assets rose by only $740 billion in the same period. What explains the $1.2 trillion difference? “Net errors & omissions” and disguised capital flight? One for @Brad_Setserhttps://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/Quiet-capital-flight-dents-China-s-sway-as-1.2tn-disappears 

Brad Setser Explains

Brad Setser@Brad_Setser

this is a relatively straightforward BoP question —

a) there is a bit of capital flight embedded in the current account (the overstated tourism balance)
b) errors and omissions (hot money, flight capital has been roughly equal to the surplus in the basic balance since 14)

1/x https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1142809540053938179 

Adam Tooze@adam_tooze

While China’s surplus grew by $2 trillion from 2009 to 2018, its external assets rose by only $740 billion in the same period. What explains the $1.2 trillion difference? “Net errors & omissions” and disguised capital flight? One for @Brad_Setserhttps://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/Quiet-capital-flight-dents-China-s-sway-as-1.2tn-disappears 

View image on Twitter

This is a relatively straightforward BoP question —

a) there is a bit of capital flight embedded in the current account (the overstated tourism balance)

b) errors and omissions (hot money, flight capital has been roughly equal to the surplus in the basic balance since 14)

I have written about this in the past, but in the context of explaining why the equilibrium level of intervention by China has fallen (e.g. reserve growth no longer tracks the current account surplus)

In the preceding chart I subtracted errors from the basic balance, and compared it to my measure of the buildup of official assets — the difference is recorded private capital flows (in and out) — e.g. there was a modest net private inflow in 18.

Here is another way of cutting the data.  Cumulative reserve growth v the cumulative basic balance (CA surplus plus net FDI).  There is a bit of a gap, e.g. there has been some leakage.   But China also has ~ $1 trillion more in state assets than shows up in reserves.

Bottom line as far as I am concerned — China’s state (between the PBOC, SAFE and the big state banks) has ~ $5 trillion in assets (over $3 trillion as SAFE/ CIC, almost $2 trillion in bank assets), just under $1 trillion in liabilities

Chinese residents have a growing (but unrecorded) offshore asset position from the “flight capital” of the last five years (easily $1 trillion) — and as is well known FDI inside China tops Chinese FDI abroad.

Bottom line: there is capital flight, but it is covered out of the goods surplus– and the net foreign asset position of the Chinese state remains massive even if it isn’t growing as fast as before. I personally would not spin this as something all that alarming.

There is plenty to worry about in China: notably the domestic financial system’s fragilities and the ongoing inability of China to sustain its growth without rapid growth of credit and investment.   But I don’t really see a case for worrying about the BoP.

Full tweet thread here…

1.2 Trillion Disappears

Asian Review reports Quiet Capital Flight Dents China’s Sway as $1.2 Trillion ‘Disappears’

The IMF says China had $2.1 trillion in external net assets as of 2018 — the third-largest total after Japan’s $3.1 trillion and Germany’s $2.3 trillion, but well below its current-account surplus.

Normally, a current-account surplus moves in tandem with an increase or decrease in external net assets. But while China’s surplus grew by $2 trillion from 2009 to 2018, its external assets rose by only $740 billion in the same period.

The IMF says China had $2.1 trillion in external net assets as of 2018 — the third-largest total after Japan’s $3.1 trillion and Germany’s $2.3 trillion, but well below its current-account surplus.

Yu Yongding, an economist and former member of the People’s Bank of China monetary policy committee, offered a theory. If a Chinese company exports products worth $1 million to the U.S., it logs the amount as sales in trade with the U.S., according to Yu. But sometimes, only $500,000 ends up in the company’s bank account in China, while the other half remains abroad.

Yu said the accumulation of such money explains a portion of the $1.2 trillion. In China’s official statistics, a category called “net errors and omissions” covers such hazy transactions. For the 2009-2018 period, China recorded minus $1.1 trillion in this segment — suspiciously close to $1.2 trillion.

Net Errors and Omissions

Let’s label that correctly: Capital flight.

IMF Forecast

Trump Placated?

The IMF believes China’s net current account surplus will turn negative in 2022.

Setser does not see that yet and it’s easy to dismiss the IMF because the IMF is wrong far more often than right.

Yet, assume the IMF is correct. Does this placate Trump?

Not quite. It is highly likely that China’s surplus with the US simply moves elsewhere.

I discussed that idea two days ago in “Made in China” Soon to be Replaced by “Made in Taiwan”

Tariffs Won’t Work

In response, a friend of mine summed up things nicely: “The world has just changed too radically for tariffs to work like Trump expects. It’s like trying to fight World War III with muzzle loaded guns.

If Trump puts tariffs on the entire world, few manufacturing jobs will return because everything is so automated. The only “success” Trump will see is turning the US into the highest cost producer.

Our Currency But Your Problem

This all goes back to Nixon who closed the gold window on August 15, 1971, ending redemption of dollars for gold. Nixon’s treasury secretary then famously stated “The dollar is our currency but your problem.”

Following Nixon’s “temporary” move, fiscal deficits exploded globally and the US bore the brunt of trade deficits.

Trade imbalances are now Trump’s pet peeve. But Tariffs cannot possibly fix the problem.

Trump is fighting a 1968 Vietnam-style “guns and butter war” (wanting both) with tools that cannot possibly work.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Europe

Huge heat wave hits Europe

(courtesy zerohedge)

Melted Motorways, Widespread Nudity, & “Thermal Shock” – Record Heat-Wave Sparks Panic Across Europe

Record-breaking heat scorches central Europe as many braced Thursday for temperatures above 100 F.

Wednesday was one of the most sizzling days on record across Europe with average June temperatures and all-time temperature records broken, reported AccuWeather.

Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic recorded its highest temperatures ever during June.

Temperatures were 100.8 F at Radzyń, Poland, on Wednesday, while Coschen station (Berlin-Brandenburg) printed 101.5 F in Germany. However, temperatures in Germany didn’t surpass the 104.5 F all-time high, set in Kitzingen on August 2015.

Czech Republic, Doksany recorded 102 F, hitting an all-time high for the country that was previously set at 100.8 F at Brno-Žabovřesky in June 2000.

Governments across the European Union warned citizens earlier this week about how the heat wave could cause harmful air, increase health-related illnesses at hospitals, and overload power grids.

The heat wave blasted central Europe on Thursday and will produce 104 F temperatures in France, Spain, and Greece on Friday.

French Health Minister Agnes Buzyn told people to prepare for intense heat and expressed some irritation that some aren’t taking government advice of staying indoors during the heat wave.

“We see citizens who are quite irresponsible and continue to go jogging between midday and 2:00 pm,” she told France 2 TV.

Grospierres, France, located in the southern region of the country, hit 107.6 F on Thursday, which was a record-breaking high.

About two hours south of Grospierres, located on the Mediterranean coast, is Narbonne, which recorded highs near 106.7 F.

Friday could be absolute hell for France, as temperatures are expected to approach 110 F across the southeast interior of the country.

Final exams for students in France were delayed a week because of the heat wave, while French President Emmanuel Macron promised, “The whole government is mobilized.”

In France, several elderly swimmers died, apparently of “thermal shock,” after entering the cool seawater after broiling on land.

In 2003, caught unprepared by a brutal heat wave, an estimated 20,000 people died in Europe, most of them in France.

Heat waves are frequent in Europe; it was just that this one was very early in the season.

As WaPo reports, newspapers in Germany published guides on whether the heat meant that employees could simply skip work (Answer: No) and if wearing shorts at work was acceptable amid the heat wave (Answer: It depends).

In Switzerland, the heat wave also coincided with the first weeks of basic training for the country’s new military conscripts. To prevent the recruits from overheating, Swiss officials require them to regularly fill in forms to document their hourly water consumption, an official told Swiss media.

In Germany, heated rows broke out over how much nudity to tolerate in the midst of the heat wave. After a group of women took off their bikini tops in Munich last weekend to bathe along the banks of the city’s Isar River, five security guards ordered them to put their tops back on, citing local public nudity prohibitions. In response, about two dozen women also took their tops off “out of solidarity,” according to the German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung. The security guards proceeded to call the police, who insisted the women cover their breasts.

It wasn’t just the ladies. In eastern Germany, officers pulled over a naked man on a moped; apparently, it was so hot outside so he had to take off his clothes and jump on his moped to catch a breeze.

Additionally, law enforcement in Germany have decreased speed limits on several parts of the Autobahn due to fears the hot weather could cause roadways to warp as vehicles pass over.

Amid the heat, the worst wildfires in two decades broke out across Catalonia, Spain.

Climatologists told Associated Press that weather is becoming more volatile making heat waves more common.

“This increase in heat extremes is just as predicted by climate science as a consequence of global warming caused by the increasing greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil, and gas,” Stefan Rahmstorf, a climatologist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said.

Numerous studies have shown that extreme heat waves could be connected to human-caused global warming – while none of that has been officially confirmed – we certainly must say that weather across the world has become more volatile than the past.

end
UK
Game theory on the Brexit and the Irish backstop
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Brexit “Do-Or-Die” Game Theory: Is Johnson Lying? Hunt? Ireland? EU?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Everyone knows what everyone else “says” they will do. But what will they really do, if pushed?

Brexit Game Theory

There is an excellent discussion of Brexit game theory by Eurointelligence and Peter Foster in a set of articles on the Daily Telegraph.

Stated Positions and Red Lines

  1. Boris Johnson: “Do or Die”. He will deliver Brexit on October 31. No delays. No extensions. He does not want No Deal but he is prepared for one.
  2. EU: They will not under any circumstances reopen the deal they made with Theresa May. In the event of No Deal, they will not negotiate trade agreements unless the UK honors the backstop, helps Ireland, and agrees to pay the Brexit fee.
  3. DUP: They will not agree to a backstop.
  4. Ireland: Leo Varadkar, the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) demands a backstop. It cannot be temporary. He is willing to crash the Irish economy, if necessary, to preserve the integrity of the EU.
  5. Jeremy Hunt: He will not commit to “do or die” but says he is willing to walk away with No Deal.

Let’s discard Jeremy Hunt as a not serious. He voted Remain and he is no more credible than Theresa May whom the EU played for a patsy.

More importantly, we can discard Hunt whether or not he is believable because the next prime minister will be Johnson.

What We Know

We know what the relevant four parties say they will do.

What We Don’t Know

We do not know what any side really will do in practice.

Economic Estimates

Economic estimates are, well, estimates. No one really believes the UK will suffer as much as the EU says. At least I don’t, but more importantly neither does Johnson.

The estimate for Ireland is far more important. Peter Foster explains:

The Irish Central Bank warned this week that a disorderly no-deal Brexit could knock four percentage points off Irish economic growth in the first year; result in 100,000 fewer jobs and inflict “very severe and immediate 
disruptive effects”.

That’s a shocking hit to the tune of an immediate 4% hit to GDP. Even if the estimate is half-accurate, that is one hell of a hit.

Eurointelligence

We think it is significant that Boris Johnson has given a do-or-die pledge on the October 31 Brexit date. The reaction from Brussels is equally significant: nobody believes him.

For us it raises a far more interesting, yet unanswered question about Brexit: what would the leaders of the EU and the UK do if they were really confronted by such a threat? Not what they say they would do, but what they would actually do. One of the few journalists who has been gaming this scenario in detail is Peter Foster of the Daily Telegraph.

He started off with an observation that also sits firmly on our minds: would Dublin really not blink? We are assured by people with a much better understanding of Irish politics that Leo Vardkar cannot conceivably compromise on the Irish border. For him, it is politically easier to have a super-hard border imposed on him by the UK than to agree a compromise. We believe that this assertion correctly reflects the views in Dublin. But then again, it has not been tested, only stated. Would the politics not change if people were confronted with the economic reality of a harder border, when people lose jobs and income? Would they still want their prime minister to be brave and principled in that situation? The answer may well be yes, but should we really take this for granted?

Do or Die

Johnson’s “Do or Die” statement seems credible to me, whether the EU believes it or not.

Foster asks: what if a Johnson government were to demonstrate that it could deliver a majority for a withdrawal agreement with a time-limited backstop? Would the EU and Ireland really choose pain today over pain tomorrow?

Eurointelligence answers: The answer again may well be yes – but it would be out of character.

Out of Character

Eurointelligence did not explain what it meant by out of character, but here’s the explanation in the form of two questions by me:

  • Would the EU really leave Ireland dangling with a 4% hit to GDP if Ireland changed its mind and Leo Varadkar were to suddenly agree to a time-limited backstop?
  • How about a technical solution currently labeled a “unicorn”? How about a technical solution following a two-year wait period?

We do not know the answers, but we do know it would be out of character for the solidarity-conscious EU to say no if Ireland wants a deal.

Credible Threats

Neither the UK nor Northern Ireland is making any provisions to implement a customs border in the event of “No Deal”.

100% of the costs would fall on Ireland. Thus, the threat to push all the costs on Ireland is very real.

This too, explains how it would be “out of character” for the EU to abandon a baby.

Pressure on Ireland

Foster notes Ireland under EU pressure to lay out plans for border as fears mount that no-deal Brexit is unavoidable.

Three senior EU sources confirmed that Ireland was being forced to work with the European Commission’s Task Force 50 to lay out detailed plans on customs controls, tariff collections and checks on plant and animal products.

The European Commission has made clear that it will require Ireland to defend the integrity of the EU single market and will not provide legal exemptions on required checks.

The decision to put pressure on Dublin reflects concerns in Berlin and Paris that if the UK does not cooperate, then Ireland will pose a risk to the integrity of the EU single market in the event of a no deal.

We need to know exactly what is going to happen in Ireland on day one of a no-deal Brexit if the British do nothing to help,” said an EU diplomat with knowledge of the discussions.

Pressure in Reverse!

It is Johnson’s and DUP’s best interest to not help with this dilemma, so they haven’t and won’t.

The turnaround irony is astounding.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s top Brexit negotiator openly spoke, on camera, of using the backstop as a “strategic and tactical means to put permanent pressure on the UK.”

Please play the clip: Let’s Discuss Brexit (and How the EU Bragged, on Film, About Screwing the UK)

Suddenly, the backstop pressure is in reverse. It’s on Ireland and the EU.

Dumping DUP?

What about Dumping DUP or changing the border position?

Foster asks: Can the Irish border ‘trilemma’ be solved? A new Brexiteer-focused group thinks so

It is the single biggest issue that has bedevilled the Brexit process – how to retain an ‘invisible’ border in Northern Ireland while leaving the EU’s customs union and single market, but not creating a trade border in the Irish Sea.

The hunt for “alternative arrangements” still holds the key to delivering an orderly, rather than a ‘no deal’ Brexit, which is why a Brexiteer-focused group has set up an Alternative Arrangements Commission to try and find a solution.

The Commission says is looking to deliver workable solutions in “two to three years”. Separately the Government has committed £20m to the search.

Although the AAC is officially non-partisan, it is explicitly designed to deliver a ‘hard’ Brexit which sees the UK able to have an independent trade policy, setting its different tariffs and standards from the EU to facilitate trade deals with other countries, like the USA.

Irish Sea Border Back in Play

The proposed solution puts the border in “two or three years” in the Irish Sea, not a land solution between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

DUP rejects this prospect. And Theresa May desperately needed DUP to keep her minuscule 3-seat coalition intact.

Johnson is headed for elections anyway, so he just might not care.

Would the EU go along?

Nothing is certain, but I suspect it’s highly likely.

Barnier proposed this solution in the first place. Please recall that it was Theresa May, needing DUP to prevent a collapse of her government, that led to the nightmare backstop currently in play.

Warmed Over Theresa May Deal Won’t Cut It

If we take Johnson seriously, and we should, a warmed-over rehash of the deal the EU offered Theresa May will not cut it. It would be the kiss of death for Johnson if he proposed such a thing.

“Do or Die” should be taken seriously, very seriously.

The EU reaction so far has been “we don’t believe you”. Of course, that is what they say, but do they mean it?

Contemplating the EU’s Strategy

The EU’s riskiest strategy is to hope for or facilitate an immediate motion of no confidence on Johnson that succeeds.

It is risky because Nigel Farage just might be the next PM. Alternatively, a Tory-Brexit Party coalition just might get an amazing majority.

However, I do not believe a motion will succeed.

Regardless, the EU is not in control of this, short of saying it would be willing/not-willing to talk with Johnson as soon as he is elected.

Time to Think

The EU has time to think about this, at least up to the elections, and likely until September 3. If May gives a final address to Parliament as planned, the first chance for parliament to dump Johnson via a motion of no confidence would be September 3 due to a scheduled summer recess.

From August 25 through September 2 the EU can likely stave off a motion of no confidence simply by agreeing to meet and discuss things with Johnson.

I suspect the EU will do just that, preferring to deal with Johnson rather than risk Nigel Farage. It might depend on Brexit Party polls between July 25 and September 1.

After September 11, it will not be possible for the UK parliament to prevent a No Deal Brexit. There would not be sufficient time.

I discussed the September 11 cutoff timeline in Brexit: Please, Let’s Discuss 10 Pertinent Facts.

What’s Likely? Some Combination of the Following

  1. The EU will have to give up something. So it will.
  2. Johnson will have to give up something. So he will.
  3. The EU will will agree to a temporary backstop or technology solution somewhere.
  4. The Backstop may shift from land to sea or it may be technology based.
  5. The permanent border is more likely to be at sea than on land (My conclusion based on the above discussion).
  6. If the border is land based, either temporary or long-term, Johnson will agree to help Ireland with costs.
  7. Johnson will agree to pay the Brexit fee.
  8. Both sides will agree to work closely on trade deals and other issues starting immediately.
  9. There is a some chance of a zero-tariff or low-tariff interim deal for five or 10 years. Given the EU is a net exporter to the UK, a zero-tariff solution would hugely benefit the EU (in the eyes of EU exporters, especially Germany). I suspect a low-tariff agreement is more likely, but with specific agricultural restrictions.

Deal Givens

  • Assuming there is a deal, points 1, 2, 6, 7, and 8 are a given.
  • Points 3, 4, and 5 are where the deal will be struck.
  • Point nine is a hopeful possibility, and not all that unlikely.

Fabled Unicorn

The end result of this encouraging setup is highly likely to be a fabled unicorn: a managed WTO-Brexit.

This would represent the best possible result for the UK (from the outset) and the best result possible for the EU (from this point going forward).

Alternatively, is the EU really willing to risk dealing with Nigel Farage? Over Germany’s objections and a collapse of EU exports to the UK? With Italy simmering in the background? With the head of the ECB simmering in the background?

I think not. Thus, a good deal for everyone is what I expect, and have for some time.

If So, Six Things

  1. Johnson will have genuinely delivered Brexit (as opposed to May’s deal which wouldn’t).
  2. Parliament will overwhelmingly approve the deal.
  3. The Brexit Party will no longer have a reason for being.
  4. Remain and Referendum notions get thrown on the ash heap of history.
  5. Johnson will be a hero, Corbyn a goat.
  6. Johnson will handily defeat Corbyn and his splintered Labour party in the next general election.

Should that happen, and I think it will, congratulations UK!

end
The following is a very important commentary and it will certainly cause Trump to go ballistic.  The EU announces that its new Instex
which by passes the uSA SWIFT payment system is now operational.  It was designed to help out Iran who are facing USA sanctions.
This would be the death blow to the dollar as a reserve currency.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump To Unleash Hell On Europe: EU Announces Channel To Circumvent SWIFT And Iran Sanctions Is Now Oper

ational

With the world waiting for the first headlines from the Trump-Xi meeting, the most important and unexpected news of the day hit moments ago, when Europe announced that the special trade channel, Instex, that will allow European firms to avoid SWIFT and bypass American sanctions on Iran, is now operational.

Following a meeting between the countries who singed the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was ditched by US, French, British and German officials said the trade mechanism which was proposed last summer and called Instex, is now operational.

As a reminder, last September, in order to maintain a financial relationship with Iran that can not be vetoed by the US, Europe unveiled a “Special Purpose Vehicle” to bypass SWIFT. The mechanism would facilitate transactions between European and Iranian companies, while preventing the US from vetoing the transactions and pursuing punitive measures on those companies and states that defied Trump. The payment balancing system will allow companies in Europe to buy Iranian goods, and vice-versa, without actual money-transfers between European and Iranian banks.

The statement came after the remaining signatures of JCPOA gathered in Vienna for a meeting that Iranian ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi called  “the last chance for the remaining parties…to gather and see how they can meet their commitments towards Iran.”

European and Iranian officials attend a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria, June 28, 2019

Until today, Tehran was skeptical about EU’s commitment to the deal and threatened to exceed the maximum amount of enriched uranium allowed it by the deal after US had imposed a series of sanctions on the country.

Meanwhile, opponents of Instex – almost exclusively the US – have argued that the mechanism is flawed because the Iranian institution designated to work with Instex, the Special Trade and Finance Instrument, has shareholders with links to entities already facing sanctions from the U.S.

The announcement sent oil sharply lower, with crude futures falling about $1/bbl in closing minutes before settlement, extending daily loss, as it means Iran now has a fully functioning pathway to receive payment for oil it exports to anyone it chooses.

The announcement will likely send president Trump off the rails, because in late May Bloomberg reported that as part of Trump’s escalating battle with “European allies” over the fate of the Iran nuclear accord, he was “threatening penalties against the financial body created by Germany, the U.K. and France to shield trade with the Islamic Republic from U.S. sanctions” including the loss of access to the US financial system.

According to Bloomberg, the Treasury Department’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, Sigal Mandelker, sent a letter on May 7 warning that Instex, the European SPV to sustain trade with Tehran, and anyone associated with it could be barred from the U.S. financial system if it goes into effect.

“I urge you to carefully consider the potential sanctions exposure of Instex,” Mandelker wrote in an ominous letter to Instex President Per Fischer. “Engaging in activities that run afoul of U.S. sanctions can result in severe consequences, including a loss of access to the U.S. financial system.”

Germany, France and the U.K. finalized the Instex system in January, allowing companies to trade with Iran without the use of U.S. dollars or American banks, allowing them to get around wide-ranging U.S. sanctions that were imposed after the Trump administration abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal last year.

“This is a shot across the bow of a European political establishment committed to using Instex and its sanctions-connected Iranian counterpart to circumvent U.S. measures,” said Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive officer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

Here is a simpler summary of what just happened: this was the first official shot across the bow of the USD status as a global reserve currency, and not by America’s adversaries but by its closest allies. And once those who benefit the most from the status quo openly revolt against it, the countdown to the end of the USD reserve status officially begins.

* * *

When asked to comment on the letter, the Treasury Department issued a statement saying “entities that transact in trade with the Iranian regime through any means may expose themselves to considerable sanctions risk, and Treasury intends to aggressively enforce our authorities.”

The US ire was sparked by the realization – and alarm – that cracks are appearing in the dollar’s reserve status, opponents of Instex argue – at least for public consumption purposes – that the mechanism is flawed because the Iranian institution designated to work with Instex, the Special Trade and Finance Instrument, has shareholders with links to entities already facing sanctions from the U.S.

Separately, during a visit to London on May 8, Mike Pompeo also warned that there was no need for Instex because the U.S. allows for humanitarian and medical products to get into Iran without sanction.

“When transactions move beyond that, it doesn’t matter what vehicle’s out there, if the transaction is sanctionable, we will evaluate it, review it, and if appropriate, levy sanctions against those that were involved in that transaction,” Pompeo said. “It’s very straightforward.”

In conclusion, one month ago we said that “In 2018, Europe made a huge stink about not being bound by Trump’s unilateral breach of the Iranian deal, and said it would continue regardless of US threats. But now that the threats have clearly escalated, and Washington has made it clear it won’t take no for an answer, it will be interesting to see if Europe’s resolve to take on Trump – especially in light of the trade war with China – has fizzled. ”

The answer, it appears is that Europe felt unexpectedly emboldened, just hours before Trump’s meeting with Xi, and that it is ready and willing to call Trump’s bluff; it goes without saying, that if the US does indeed retaliate and proceed with sanctions against European banks, than the global trade war is about to turn far, far uglier.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Famed Paul Singer is now warning of a huge 40% market crash..He tells you why.

(courtesy Paul Singer/Elliott Management/zerohedge)

Paul Singer Warns A 40% Market Crash Is Coming

Earlier today, in a stark reversal from its traditionally cheerful demeanor, a Goldman Sachs strategist warned that  “purely based on elevated equity valuations, as measured by the S&P 500 Shiller P/E, and current growth, according to our US Current Activity Indicator (CAI), the risk of an equity drawdown of more than 10%”, i.e. a sharp market drop, or for lack of a better word, crash, “is the highest since the GFC.”

Well, Goldman wasn’t the only one to see a major market selloff in the coming months.

 

Speaking at the Aspen Ideas Festival, billionaire investor and Elliott Management founder, Paul Singer, warned that the global economy is heading toward a “significant market downturn” cautioning that “the global financial system is very much toward the risky end of the spectrum.”

While Paul Singer’s traditionally downcast outlook is hardly surprising, as it permeates every investor letter published by the successful investor who has been particularly clear in the past decade that the Fed’s monetary experiment will end terribly, he sees two particular reasons why the economy is approaching a tipping point: “global debt is at an all-time high. Derivatives are at an all-time high and it took all of this monetary easing to get to where we are today and I don’t think central bankers, or policymakers or academics are in any better shape to predict the next downturn and I think we are the high end of the risk spectrum.”

He then ominously added that “I’m expecting the possibility of a significant market downturn.”

How bad would the crash be? According to the Elliott Management CEO, there will be a market “correction” of 30% to 40% when the downturn hits, although unlike Goldman – which gave a timeline of 12 months in which the next major market will materialize, Singer said he couldn’t predict the timing.

In the panel discussion, Singer also said the market meltdown late last year after interest rates spiked in the 4th quarter was the first hint of a pending slump, as it indicated that the Federal Reserve and other central banks were now victims of their policies, something he has been warning about for years.

“December supported the notion that they’re trapped,” he said. “What they should have done, and what they should do now, is try to restore the soundness of money. They should not be cutting rates right now. They should be calling on the congresses and parliaments around the developed world to take steps to deal with the economic slowdown in growth.”

He is, of course, right, but that same argument should have been made in 2009 – and we have been making it ever since – alas the Fed is now held hostage by the market, as any market drop – and a 40% crash would be devastating to not only America’s net worth, wiping out over $30 in household net worth, but its economy which has been financialized beyond the point of no return. It would also destroy what little confidence the Fed has left, and could result in a terminal damage to the dollar’s reserve status.

Needless to say, the Fed will never voluntarily agree to allow honest price discovery to emerge now, especially with Trump breathing down Powell’s neck every time there is a downtick in the S&P.

It wasn’t all doom and gloom however, as another investing legend on the same panel, Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein, gave a somewhat more cheerful take, saying that nothing cataclysmic will happen to the U.S. economy until after the presidential election in 2020.

“Presidents who run for reelection in a time of recession or perceived recessions, don’t win,” Rubenstein said. “Everyone in Washington is focused on one thing, which is the presidential election and how long you have to keep the economy going to get through that.”

Which simply means that the long, long overdue correction will only be extended by another year, and will be that much more painful when it finally does hit, potentially smack in the middle of Trump’s second term, at which point it would unleash a massive recession and lead to Trump firing Powell, and ending even the false impression of the Fed’s independence for good.

Rubinstein also said that while the trade dispute between the U.S. and China is weighing on both economies, Rubenstein said he was “100%” certain a deal could be reached.

It sure can, although as we have repeatedly noted, the dispute with China is about much more than just trade, as the underlying issue is the question of sphere of influence and axes of global dominance rather than the economic one. As such it is a battle of two civilizations, one rapidly ascendant, the other in decline, and according to the Thucydides Trap, every such intersection has always resulted in bloody conflict.

While Singer did not predict that a global war is inevitable – although many others have – he did highlight that China has been able to grow in the past 30 or 40 years without any scrutiny on its effect on national security and intellectual property.

“This is the first pushback to China, and China is, at the moment possibly, very surprised and doesn’t really know how to deal with it,” Singer said. As for the answer how China will “deal with it”, we may find out this weekend, when the status quo is likely to be extended if only for a while, as Beijing – which is playing the “long game” in hopes of dispatching Trump in the 2020 elections – prepares to strike a blow that will cripple the US for good, allowing China to become the world’s dominant superpower. And since the US will never willingly concede global superpower and reserve currency status to China, what comes next will be truly unprecedented in modern economic and financial history.

 

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1376 UP .0005 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.73 DOWN 0.023 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2694   UP   0.0021  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3087 UP .0008 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 5 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1376 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 14.86 POINTS OR 0.50% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78.80 POINTS OR 0.28%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,65%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN  

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78.80 POINTS OR 0.28%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.91 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 65% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 62.25  POINTS OR 0.29%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1413.90

silver:$15.27-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.01% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.53 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.18 DOWN 1 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.48% UP 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.16%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.40%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.10 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 170 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.33% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.43% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1362  DOWN     .0009 or 9 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.85 UP .091 OR YEN DOW 10  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2697 UP .0016 POUND UP 16  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 3 basis points to 1.3097

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8668    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8725  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7898 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.16%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.00 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.53 DOWN 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.26 UP 7  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 15.16  OR  0.38%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 127.77 POINTS OR 1.04%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 45.36 POINTS 0.83%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 51.00 POINTS or 0.56%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 123.92 POINTS OR 0.59%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.26 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.47 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    63.15  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.8 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 8 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.33 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  59.57//

 

 

BRENT :  65.75

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.00…   VERY DEADLY//

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.53..VERY DEADLY/

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1376 ( UP 5   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.73 DOWN .023 (YEN UP 2 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.18 DOWN 1 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2694 UP 21  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7697

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.93   UP 0.12 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 12 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3087 UP 8 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8693  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8740 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.33%

 

The Dow closed  UP 73.38 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 38.49 POINTS OR 0.48%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.08 CLOSED DOWN 74

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.318%//libor dropping like a stone

 

 

 

FROM 2.338

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//

Powell Capitulation Sparks S&P’s Best Start To A Year In 22 Years

Well that was a month… and good luck if you’re long (or short) into this weekend’s headline horrors…

Global Bond and Stock Markets added $4.5 trillion to global wealth in June

 

Powell Pivot, Fed Fold, or Complete Capitulation by Cowardly PolicyMakers…

Catching down to the market’s demands…

And everything was up in the first half of the year (via BofA):

H1 Scores on the doors: global stocks 15.5%, commodities 16.2%, HY corporate bonds 9.3%, IG corporate bonds 7.7%, government bonds 4.9%, cash 1.2%, US dollar 0.0%.

H1 return winners: #1 Bitcoin +194%, #2 iron ore 67%, #3 Russian equities 33%, #4 WTI oil 31%, #5 tech stocks 23%.

H1 return losers: #1 natural gas -22%, #2 Turkish lira -8%, #3 biotech stocks -2%, #4 US dollar 0.0%, #5 T-Bills 1%.

H1 flow winners: #1 Corp IG $136bn, #2 Govt bonds $34bn, #3 EM debt $27bn, #4 Munis $21bn, #5 Corp HY $15bn.

H1 flow losers: #1 EU equities -$71bn, #2 US equities -$41bn, #3 bank loans -$18bn, #4 financials -$10bn, #5 TIPS -$8bn.

H1 in a nutshell: asset prices rose as bearish positioning coincided with a bullish monetary policy pivot; interest rate expectations collapsed offsetting lower EPS expectations; lower credit spreads & volatility meant higher stock prices; investors went down-in-quality in credit, and stuck with growth stocks.

Global stocks (MSCI World) just had their greatest June performance in history…

 

The Dow just had its best June since 1938…

Additionally, the S&P saw its best June since 1955…

 

Chinese stocks are up 20% in the first six months of the year, the best six-month run since June 2015…

June was also a big month but dominated by the mid-month ECB/FED/BoJ fold…

 

European stocks saw their best monthly performance since Dec 2016 (Thanks to Draghi and Powell mid-month)…

 

And best first half of the year since 1998…

 

June was – as noted above – was almost unprecedented for US stocks…

NOTE – look at how tightly clustered US major equity index returns are for such a wild month.

On the week, Trannies and Small Caps surged – on a huge short squeeze – but Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all lost ground…

NOT – big spike at the close on a $4bn MOC to buy program – did pensions really wait until the last 10mins of the quarter to rebalance?

 

“Most Shorted” Stocks have exploded higher in the last two days, echoing the first two days of the month – this is the biggest monthly squeeze since January…

 

VIX was lower on the month BUT as stocks rallied since June 6th, VIX has been flat…

 

Credit markets dramatically compressed in June – decoupling from equity risk…

 

But credit and equity are notably divergent in this bounce…

 

Bond vol has dramatically decoupled from equity vol too…

 

The decoupling between bonds and stocks is unprecedented…

 

Treasury yields tumbled in June (but notably the long-end dramatically underperformed)…

 

10Y yields tested back down below 2.00% to end the month – the lowest monthly close since Oct 2016…

 

The yield curve (3m10Y) steepened over 11bps in June (the biggest steepening since Jan 2018) but remains inverted for the 26th day straight…

 

While The Dollar Index trod water this week after the Powell plunge, June’s 1.6% drop was the worst month since Jan 2018

 

Offshore Yuan jumped most since January in June – driven mainly by easing chatter from Fed/ECB…

 

Bitcoin managed to hold on to gains this week, despite the midweek bloodbath…

 

Cryptos soared in June, Q2 and H1 with Litecoin up 300% YTD and Bitcoin up 200% YTD…

 

Bitcoin is up 5 months in a row…

Bitcoin was bid into today’s close ending around $12,300

 

Tracking 2017’s trajectory very well…

 

Oil and Gold outperformed but the dollar weakness sent all commodities higher…

 

Gold surged over 8% in June, its best month since pre-Brexit in June 2016

 

Gold is the dramatic winner since The Fed went full dovetard…

 

Gold made new all time highs in multiple currencies (AUD, SEK, MYR, CLP, and ZimDollar)

 

As the precious metal becomes ever more valuable in a world of negative yielding debt…

 

WTI had its best month since January but tumbled after the close today erasing the gains from the inventory data earlier in the week after Europe announced the Iran-Sanction workaround was operational…

 

Finally, among all the superlatives in markets, June saw US Macro data collapse most since April 2017…

So, US stocks are within an inch of record highs and macro-economic data is near its weakest since 2011?

Well, it sure looks like the poorest Americans aren’t loving it…

So what happens next?

end

 

i) Market trading/

 

MARKET TRADING/LATE MORNING

 

 

LATE AFTERNOON

 

ii)Market data/

Not good: Chicago’s National PMI plunges into contraction collapsing from 54.2 down to 49.7.  A good indicator of problems in the Chicago mfg area

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chicago PMI Plunges Into Contraction

On the heels of dismal weakness in all regional Fed outlook surveys, Chicago PMI just collapsed from 54.2 to 49.7 (drastically missing the 53.5 expectation) and back into contraction for the first time since Dec 2015.

 

This was well below the lowest estimate of 51.0 from 25 economist surveyed.

  • Business barometer fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction
  • Prices paid rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction
  • Employment rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Inventories rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Production rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Order backlogs fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction

This drags the ‘soft’ survey data “hope” down to its weakest since March 2016…

Nothing that a 50bps rate cut in July can’t fix eh?

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

This is terrifying:  Bubonic plague in LA is becoming a reality…California is now on the verge of becoming a third world state

(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)

Bubonic Plague In LA: California On The Verge Of Becoming A Third World State

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

The city of Los Angeles is quickly descending into a cesspool of decay and disease.  With bubonic plague now likely present amongst residents, the city and the state of California are on the verge of becoming a third-world hellscape.  Some say that that’s already happened…

Tucker Carlson had historian Victor Davis Hanson on his show just last week, where the latter said that California is on the verge of becoming the nation’s first Third World state. From trash being illegally dumped to city hall becoming a rat-infested den in the city of LA, it all points to the decay suffered when Democrats run things. Even police stations in the city are loaded with rats and according to Townhall, one was fined $5,000 over its conditions that left one officer stricken with typhoid fever. California’s descent has gotten to the point where there is a possibility that bubonic plague (the black death) may now be present in the city.

 

This isn’t new information either.Typhus outbreaks were being reported back in February. Typhus is not transmitted person-to-person, and flea-borne typhus can spread to people from infected fleas and their feces. Typhus infection can be prevented through flea control measures on pets, using insect repellent to avoid flea bites and clearing areas that can attract wild or stray animals like cats, rats, and opossums, according to the Department of Public Health.

Typhus is spread by fleas hitching a ride on rats. While the general population struggles under the weight of the government (local, state, and federal in LA’s case) and the homeless population continues to climb up, the same cannot be said for the rats that carry fleas the cause typhus. The rat population in LA is doing just fine, however, as piles of garbage dot the cityscape, making it Thanksgiving Day every day for the city’s fat, happy rodents, wrote the American Thinker. -SHTFPlan

California’s burgeoning homeless camps are not the most hygienic places to live, obviously.  And with the homeless population growing daily, the encampments are becoming more dangerous when it comes to crime and disease. Dr. Drew Pinsky said this month that there has been a total and complete breakdown of services in the city that has placed the population at risk of infection and other health-related issues.

“We have a complete breakdown of the basic needs of civilization in Los Angeles right now,” Pinsky told Fox News host Laura Ingraham.

“We have the three prongs of airborne disease, tuberculosis is exploding, rodent-borne. We are one of the only cities in the country that doesn’t have a rodent control program, and sanitation has broken down.”

Pinsky said bubonic plague, which is also known as the “Black Death,” a pandemic that killed off millions in the 14th century, is “likely” already present in Los Angeles. The plague is spread by infected fleas and exposure to bodily fluids from a dead plague-infected animal, with the bacteria entering through the skin and traveling to lymph nodes.

This is unbelievable. I can’t believe I live in a city where this is not Third World. This is medieval,” Pinsky said, according to Fox News.

“Third World countries are insulted if they are accused of being like this. No city on Earth tolerates this. The entire population is at risk.”

END
An extremely important read and this is in continuation of previous commentaries.  Brandon Smith believes that Powell may not lower rates and he will continue to run off his balance sheet.  Why? The Fed wants to implode the uSA economy.  He explains why
(courtesy Brandon Smith)

The Real Reason Why The Fed Isn’t Cutting Interest Rates

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

In an article published in September 2015 titled ‘The Real Reason Why The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates’ I outlined a kind of economic war game, a predictive theory in which the Federal Reserve would hike rates into clear economic weakness in order to deliberately cause the implosion of the vast financial bubble they had created through several years of quantitative easing. At that time this theory received a lot of opposition. Nearly everyone in the mainstream and in the alternative media argued that the Fed was going to shift to NIRP (negative interest rates), in order to continue propping up the system.The idea that the Fed would actually raise rates and cause an engineered crash after propping up the system for so long was treated as outlandish.

Of course, this is exactly what happened. Within a year the Fed had started to tighten policy instead of extending stimulus measures. The denial that this was happening was so strong that many analysts claimed the Fed was simply “pretending” to tighten when they were actually still stimulating. Yet, this claim turned out to be incorrect; nearly every sector of the economy began an immediate and steep decline the moment the Fed launched interest rate hikes and cut its balance sheet. The evidence was mounting that yes, the central bank was not just pretending to tighten – it was actually strangling liquidity and the mirage of economic recovery was quickly fading

To this day and despite all the evidence to the contrary some people still argue that the fed is either not tightening, or will reverse on tightening measures very soon. In fact, every month since last November there has been a chorus of voices saying that “this is the month” that the Fed will return to easing and possibly QE4. And, every month they have been wrong. This includes this past month of June, when so many people were so certain that a Fed interest rate cut was baked into the cake.

In my article ‘The Federal Reserve’s Controlled Demolition Of The Economy Is Almost Complete’, published in March, I predicted that the Fed would continue to hold interest rates steady for many months to come and that Fed language of “accommodation” and “patience” was a head-fake to keep the investment world tied up in stock markets as every other major indicator showed a recession was upon us. Again, this is exactly what has happened.

Once the Fed raised rates to their neutral rate of inflation (something they had not done for decades) the fate of the US economy was sealed. To be fair, the real rate of inflation is much higher than the Fed admits, but the point remains that the US economy as it stands today cannot handle even moderately higher rates. With corporate and consumer debt at historic highs not seen since 2007 just before the credit crash, any interest pressure above zero is going to destroy the fragile economic bubble.

Some people claim that the Fed is completely unaware of this situation and is fumbling in the dark. But this is not true. In 2012 Jerome Powell outlined exactly what would happen if the Fed began tightening policy in the October minutes of the Fed meeting. Powell KNEW that higher rates and balance sheet cuts would cause the kind of crash which is now happening; but as soon as he became the Fed chair in 2018 he launched tightening measures anyway.

Whether you are for or against Fed tightening measures is truly meaningless.  The point remains that the Fed created the Everything Bubble, and now they are crashing the Everything Bubble and they know they are doing it.  So, where do we go from here? Has the Fed done all the damage it needs to do to ensure a crash? Is all this talk of accommodation actually real this time? Will they cut interest rates soon in order to prop up the system longer.  I continue to predict the Fed will not be cutting interest rates or ending balance sheet cuts until there is a blatant breakdown, or a major distraction event. And by “breakdown” I am referring to public perception of the economy waking up to the reality of the crash.

It is important to remember that the US economy has been in negative territory for the past 10 years. It has been hanging by two thin threads – the first being Fed stimulus (which has now been taken away – sorry skeptics but this is a fact), and the second being public perception of recovery. The central bankers are now relying heavily on the manipulation of public perception in order to keep certain sectors (like stock markets) afloat for a little while longer. What is the specific goal in this? It’s hard to say. However, the move to trick the investment community into making far reaching assumptions has some advantages.

Stock markets are absolutely useless as an economic indicator because they lag far behind real financial conditions.  Stocks fall after every other fundamental indicator has already turned negative and the crash is already at the public’s doorstep.  However, they do serve one purpose; stock prices can be exploited to give the population a false sense of economic health, leaving them unprepared and vulnerable to the consequences of a downturn.  Most Americans do not track economic data beyond stocks and employment, which are both highly manipulated points of reference.

Stocks remain levitated on two factors:  Massive stimulus from China since December, and blind hope from the investment world that the Fed is going to bring back the punch bowl and pump out stimulus again. Minor language changes to Fed statements are now hyped as dominant indicators that the Fed is about to flood the markets with liquidity; yet other language indicators showing the opposite are ignored. With so much capital lured into stocks on the “certainty” of Fed rate cuts or stimulus – I ask, what would happen if the Fed DOES NOT fulfill growing market expectations?

On June 19th just after the Fed meeting I noted that there was little chance of of a rate cut in July, and recent statements from Powell and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard support this argument.

Just after the June meeting, many in the investment world priced in a 100% chance of an interest rate cut in July. Why did they do this after being wrong every month for the past several months? I still can’t figure out what the source of this assumption is. Nowhere in the Fed’s minutes or in post meeting statements has the Fed indicated a cut in July. The reality is that the last Fed meeting showed NO CUTS until the end of 2020. This does not necessarily mean the Fed will hold rates until that time, but there is no evidence to support the notion that they will cut in July.

Perhaps I am wrong and the Fed will follow assumptions this time instead of assumptions following the Fed. I haven’t been wrong on Fed policy changes yet, but my point is, there is no evidence that they will cut next month, only expectation based on hearsay.

The Fed continues to lie about economic expansion, claiming a strong recovery or improving fundamentals when all the data shows economic decline; from bond yields to housing sales to housing prices to auto markets to manufacturing to shipping and freight to retail closures to weakening job prints, etc. At the same time we are witnessing inflationary pressures in necessities like food, fuel and rental housing. It’s a stagflationary mess.

Incessant reporting of strong economic health and the defiant dismissal of declines is not the behavior of a Fed that is about to capitulate on tightening. Yet, the investment community has been all-in on a rate cut for months. When the rate cuts don’t come, they then assume that the past month was close, and that the next month is a sure thing. It’s truly bizarre.

As long as the Fed holds rates near the neutral rate of inflation and continues to cut assets from its balance sheet, flooding the economy with treasuries, mortgage backed securities and toxic assets, the decline of multiple sectors is assured. There may come a point in which the Fed has done all the damage it needs to do to accelerate the crash, allowing them to then pull back on tightening, but we have not reached that point yet. As I have noted in past articles, the Fed has done all this before.

Creating enormous financial bubbles and then deliberately popping them is a classic central bank maneuver. Each time, they claim they were “unaware” of what was happening, then years later admit outright that they knew what was happening; from Alan Greenspan admitting that the Fed was well aware of the bubble that led to the crash of 2008, to Ben Bernanke openly admitting that the Fed had caused the Great Depression by tightening into economic weakness in the 1930’s.

Tightening liquidity and policy conditions into economic weakness is what central banks do to trigger chaos. But why would the Fed deliberately initiate a controlled demolition of the US economy? The bottom line is central banks are tools of the globalist elite. They are not as autonomous as they seem. No, the Fed does not answer to the US president, but it does answer to the Bank for International Settlements, as do all other major central banks in the world.

The economic disasters they create are then used as leverage to consolidate financial wealth as well as control of hard assets into the hands of these elitists. Crisis events are also used to consolidate power over the people and to centralize governance on a global scale. The Fed is nothing more than a mechanism used to help achieve this agenda.

Alternative economists should abandon any notion that Donald Trump will interfere with this plan. Trump has been under the thumb of the globalists ever since Rothschild banking agent Wilber Ross bailed him out of his debt obligations in the Taj Mahal casino in the 1990’s. Wilber Ross is now Trump’s Commerce Secretary, standing over his shoulder along with a large crew of other elites in Trump’s cabinet. This would explain why Trump vehemently criticized the Fed for inflating the Everything Bubble under the Obama administration through artificially low interest rates during his campaign, and then suddenly pulled a full reversal once he was in the White House and claimed his administration was the reason for all time highs in stock markets.

Trump has also stated time and time again he has no intention of trying to unseat Jerome Powell (he did it again just this week), and frankly he has no power to do so anyway.  His “battle” with Powell is a farce.

The Fed is a private entity, and as Alan Greenspan once openly admitted, it answers to no one. Trump has attached his administration so completely to the economic bubble that when it completely collapses he and his conservative followers will inevitable be blamed and it is my belief that he is doing exactly as he has been told to do by the banking cabal.

This leaves one final question – What is the Fed waiting for? Why not crash everything including stocks right now? Why continue to head fake investors on rate cuts and accommodation? As I noted in my recent article ‘Globalists Only Need One More Major Event To Finish Sabotaging The Economy’, the elites need a distraction that would satisfy the public’s search for a rationale after the consequences of the crash finally hit them. The accelerating trade war is very useful for this, but it is not enough. The globalists need something else.

This may come in the form of a shooting war, possibly with Iran. It may come in the form of a “No Deal Brexit” in October (and I continue to predict this is an intended event). It may also come in the form of a surprise retaliation from US trading partners, such as a dump of US treasuries or the dollar as the world reserve currency. This is what the globalists are waiting for.

Once such an event takes place, or perhaps just before the event, the Fed may finally cut rates again, or stop its balance sheet dumps. It may not. Trump’s trade war is leading towards price inflation, which could be used by the Fed as an excuse to keep interest rates steady or even hike them again. Nothing is written in stone except the primary agenda, which is: Inflate financial bubble through stimulus, implode financial bubble through tightening. Afterwards, the Fed has options. It can stimulate again as a non-solution, or do nothing.Either way, the crash is already a given and the Fed has no intention of stopping it.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

end

Deutsche Bank To Fire Up To 20,000: One In Six Full-Time Positions

While Deutsche Bank finally delivered some good news for a change to its long-suffering investors, when it miraculously failed to fail the latest Fed stress test, on Friday the chronically sick bank reverted to its “cutting into muscle” baseline when the largest German lender with the €45 trillion notional derivatives was said to be preparing “to cut as much as half its global workforce in equities trading as part of a broad restructuring to boost profitability”, according to Bloomberg with the WSJ adding that the total number could be between 15,000 and 20,000 job cuts, or more than one in six full-time positions globally.

The cuts being contemplated by senior executives reflect an acceleration of Deutsche Bank’s downsizing and another major pullback from its global ambitions. If followed through, the reduction would represent 16% to 22% of Deutsche Bank’s workforce of 91,463 employees, as disclosed by the bank as of the end of March.

According to the proposed plan the bank will eliminate hundreds of positions in equities trading and research, as well as derivatives trading, and is expected to start informing staff of cuts – including in the U.S. and Asia – as soon as next month. Rates trading is also affected.

While the move begs the question just how effective half of the bank’s equity trading desk was, it will likely be welcomed by the market even if by slashing revenue producers the bank confirms that its trading margins have dropped to negative levels, a virtually unheard of event.

Today’s announcement will not come as major news: CEO Christian Sewing informed investors late last month that he’s targeting a round of “tough cutbacks” to the investment banking division after a long series of turnaround plans by his predecessor John Cryan failed to deliver (and cost his job).

As reported previously, following the failure of the merger with Commerzbank the CEO is working on a fresh restructuring plan that will likely include deep cuts to the equities business as well as a non-core unit designed to house “unwanted”, i.e. tens of billions in toxic assets for wind-down or sale.

end

SWAMP STORIES

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

The clear winner of the first Democratic Presidential Candidates’ Debate was Rep. Tulsi Gabbard.  Polls, Google Trends/name search show that she dominated the event.  Warren was a disappointment.

Gabbard was most searched Democratic candidate after debate despite getting third-lowest speaking time     https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gabbard-most-google-searched-democratic-candidate-debate-third-lowest-speaking-time

The NYT print edition headline was unintentionally damning.

Democrats Split on How Far Left to Nudge Nation

Progress Solutions vs. Caution on Economy and Immigration

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/1144192994217791488

US Q1 GDP was unchanged at 3.1%; 3.2% was expected.  Consumer Spending was revised to 0.9% from 1.3%.  As we’ve noted numerous times, government consumer spending and retail sales stats are in conflict with industry data and results.  The contribution for commercial/private fixed investments was revised to +0.53 from +0.18.  The GDP Price Index was revised to 0.9% from 0.8%.  Core PCE was revised to 1.2% from 1%.

Ford to Cut 20% of European Workforce in Sweeping Overhaul

  • Germany, U.K. and Russia will be hardest hit by job cuts
  • European production sites to be reduced to 18 plants from 24

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-27/ford-to-eliminate-20-of-european-workforce-in-sweeping-overhaul

@WSJ: Germany’s BASF will cut 6,000 jobs [5% of global workforce] as part of a plan to boost profits amid slowing demand in one of its key global markets: cars

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chemicals-giant-basf-to-cut-5-of-global-workforce-11561647410?mod=e2tw

Happy Talk of Trump-Xi Truce Masks Twisting Path to a Trade Deal

The U.S. and China are headed for an uneasy trade-war truce and a return to the negotiating table. While financial markets may cheer such a breakthrough, the celebrations may be short-lived when the long path to a deal is considered.  If President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping announce a new round of talks Saturday, as expected, any optimism ought to be balanced with a healthy dose of reality…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-27/happy-talk-of-trump-xi-truce-masks-twisting-path-to-a-trade-deal

China to Insist U.S. Lift Huawei Ban as Part of Trade Truce – Xi to present Trump with terms for settling trade fight, including asking the U.S. to lift all punitive tariffs

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-s-xi-to-present-trump-with-terms-for-settling-trade-fight-chinese-officials-say-11561628961

@realDonaldTrump: Seems totally ridiculous that our government, and indeed Country, cannot ask a basic question of Citizenship in a very expensive, detailed and important Census, in this case for 2020. I have asked the lawyers if they can delay the Census, no matter how long, until the United States Supreme Court is given additional information from which it can make a final and decisive decision on this very critical matter. Can anyone really believe that as a great Country, we are not able the ask whether or not someone is a Citizen. Only in America!

@realDonaldTrump during Dem debate last night:All Democrats just raised their hands for giving millions of illegal aliens unlimited healthcare. How about taking care of American Citizens first!? That’s the end of that race!

end

We close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

(courtesy Greg hunter/USAWatchdog)

Citizen Question Blocked, Crazy Dem Debates, Economy Warning

By Greg Hunter On June 28, 2019

The Supreme Court ruled that the 2020 census cannot include a simple question that asks if you are an American citizen. Chief Justice John Roberts was the tie breaker that voted in favor of banning the question. Roberts is the Judge who gave America Obamacare, and he is now giving non-citizens cover to deliver populations to Blue states that guarantee more House seats. Trump calls the Supreme Court decision “ridiculous.”

20 Democratic challengers are slugging it out to become the nominee to face Donald Trump for the White House in 2020. Almost all are touting free stuff and socialism to voters. Most are for free health insurance for all, open borders, abolishing ICE, letting felons vote, free money, taking away your guns, taking away free speech and increasing taxes to pay for it all. It seems most Democrats are seeing who can come up the craziest, most destructive ideas to capture the nomination.

Some people are nervous about the economy. It is being propped up with the hope of a trade deal with China and the promise of more easy money. The easy money is a lock, but not a deal with China. Is the easy money enough to keep it all propped up? We are going to see in the not-so-distant future.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

World economic news:

Well that about does it for tonight

I will see you on MONDAY night

H

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