JULY 2/GOLD REBOUNDS NICELY UP $18.90 TO $1405.10//SILVER UP 4 CENTS TO $15.20// HUGE INCREASE IN COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST AND EFP ISSUANCE//MONSTROUS RISE IN GLD BY 6.16 TONNES TO 800.20 TONNES//

 

GOLD: $1405.10  UP   $18.90 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15.20     UP    4 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1414.00

 

silver:  $15.28

 

 

YOUR DATA…

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  79/97

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,385.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/01/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 07/03/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 29 78
661 H JP MORGAN 1
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
690 C ABN AMRO 26 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 36 13
905 C ADM 6 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 97 97
MONTH TO DATE: 661

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 97 NOTICE(S) FOR 9,700 OZ (0.2674 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  661 NOTICES FOR 66,100 OZ  (2.0559 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

237 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,185,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3372 for   16,860,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9924 down 801 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9768 UP 203

 

 

 

 

end

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE A TINY  SIZED 164 CONTRACTS FROM 218,355 UP TO 218,519 DESPITE THE 16 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 961 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  961 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 961 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 961 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.80 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 16 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

20.430 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY

 

WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT..AND ZERO SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY:

2777 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 2777 CONTRACTS) OR 13.88 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1388 CONTRACTS OR 6.94 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY:  13.88 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 1.98% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1171.38   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 164, DESPITE THE 16 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 961 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED: 1125 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 961 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 161  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  16 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.16 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.095 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 156% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 237 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,185,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 20.43 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE WILL WITNESS THE MORPHING OF OUR SPREADERS OUT OF SILVER AND INTO GOLD AS THE JULY MONTH PROCEEDS INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST. 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN VERY STRONG 10,309 CONTRACTS, TO 591,164 DESPITE THE HUGE $24.70 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED FOR GOLD….

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3485 CONTRACTS:

 

FOR AUGUST 2019: 7944 CONTRACTS,  FOR OCT: 0 DEC>  0 CONTRACTS AND FEB 2020: 0  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 591,164.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINAL SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 18,253 CONTRACTS: 10,309 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7944 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 18,253 CONTRACTS OR 1,825,300 OZ OR 56.77.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF $24.70 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT HUGE LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 56.77  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.THE NUMBERS ARE SURREAL!!

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 13,379 CONTRACTS OR 1,337,900 oz OR 41.61 TONNES (2 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6689 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 41.61 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 41.61/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.17% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2,961.74  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 10,309 DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK  YESTERDAY($24.70)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7944 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7944 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 18,253 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7944 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 10,309 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 56.77 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $24.70 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE  COMMENCED WITH SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD STARTING TODAY/

 

 

 

we had:  97 notice(s) filed upon for 9700 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY//

 

 

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:  A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6,16 TONNES

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY:

 

ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SILVER SLV:

A DEPOSIT OF 2.821 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 164 CONTRACTS from 218,355 UP TO 218,519 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JULY: 0 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 961  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 961 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2718  CONTRACTS TO THE 961 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1125 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5.625 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 20.43 MILLION OZ STANDING SO FAR.

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 16 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 961 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.96 POINTS OR 0.03%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 332.94 POINTS OR 1.17%   /The Nikkei closed UP 24.30 POINTS OR 0.11%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .14%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8763 /Oil UP TO 58.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.92 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8763 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8793 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA/USA

A very good commentary by Tom Luongo as he analyzes Trump’s move on Kim. You do not want to miss this

( Tom Luongo)

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

 

 

i)China/USA

USA semi conductor Industry chipmakers lobbied Trump on the Huawei affair and suggested to him that long term they would be hurt as they would be blocked entry into the big Chinese market.  Trump relented.

(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Europe

Just as China and the uSA entered into a ceasefire on their trade war, the USA has just entered into a new one with Europe. Very upset with subsidies on airplane production in Europe, the USA were very upset and they are now ready to engage with their tariffs. This does not include the introduction of Europe’s own SWIFT system (INSTEX) which is already embroiling Trump

( zerohedge)

ii)A very important commentary from Mish Shedlock on Trumps threats to begin tariffs on European goods.  As explained above the EU lost on the WTO hearing on illegal subsidies to Airbus and that allows new tariffs to be initiated.  Trump wants to sell agriculture to the EU but it is difficult to get all 27 nations on board.

This is going to be quite a show..

( Mish Shedlock)

iii)EUROPE/ISIS FIGHTERS

Europe has no idea where returning ISIS fighters are located.

(courtesy Kern/Gatestone)

iv)ECB

It looks like the ECB will cut rates at the following meeting and not the meeting in July.  The problem of course is that rates are already negative in Europe and this is going to send them further into NIRP

( zerohedge)

v)ECB

The ECB is staying quite clear away from German hawk Weidmann:  they have selected uber dove Christine Lagarde to head the ECB.  what a joke!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Iran/USA

A good look at what Trump will do next when dealing with Iran

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 
 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

MEXICO, GUADALAJARA

Global warming?

(zerohedge)

ii)Michael Every lays out comparisons of today and the 1930’s. He covers England, France, Iran and China/Hong Kong

(a must read)
courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

7. OIL ISSUES

i)Take a look at the world’s largest solar farm

( Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)

ii)The economy is in a severe downturn and there is a glut of oil out there.  OPEC fails to get a bigger production cut and thus down goes oil

( zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)ZIMBABWE/

Zimbabwe stops issuing passports because they cannot pay the printer that makes them. The country is basically short of everything

( zerohedge)

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

A good commentary from our good friend Hugo Salinas Price on how the monetary metal prices are suppressed by the bankers because it is true money and the bankers are supporting false money

(Hugo Salinas Price)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

 

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

II)MARKET TRADING/USA

 

 

ii)Market data/USA

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

This is totally nuts…Nike;s endorser Kaepernick complains to Nike that its new shows showing the original Betsy Ross flag with 13 colonies is offensive to him because it symbolizes slavery????. China is upset at Nike because the Japanese designer supports the Hong Kong protests.

The world is going totally bonkers

(courtesy zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
end
LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY HUGE SIZED SIZED 10,309 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 591,164 DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS OF $24.70 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED  A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7944 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 27944 CONTRACTS: FOR OCTOBER: 0 CONTRACTS; FOR DEC: 0,  FEB 2020:  0    AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7944 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 18,253 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7944 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 10,309 COMEX CONTRACTS.

IT SEEMS THAT EVERYBODY WAS JUMPING ON THE BANDWAGON TRYING TO PURCHASE GOLD CONTRACTS DESPITE THE RAID!! 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  18,253 CONTRACTS OR 1,825,300 OZ OR 56.77 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON  active contract month of JULY and here the open interest stands at 155 CONTRACTS as we LOST 69 contracts.  We had 193 notices filed yesterday so we surprisingly again gained  124 contracts or an additional 12,400 oz of gold that will stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the comex  as they will now try their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here. We usually witness queue jumping in silver immediately after first day notice but not gold.  That changed yesterday and today. The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI ROSE by a strong 1763 contracts UP to 418,811. The next non active month of September picked up another 32 contracts to stand at 40.  Finally,40e saw an increase of 2753 contracts in the active October contract month and now that month’s OI stands at 13,654.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 97 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  9700 OZ. (0.3017 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 164 CONTRACTS FROM 218,355 UP TO 218,519 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 16 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.  HERE WE HAVE 950 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 460 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 515 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 55 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 275,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL ATTEMPT TO STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. AFTER JULY WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST AND HERE WE LOST 24 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1061.  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 320 CONTRACTS UP TO 159,135 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 237 notice(s) filed for 1,185,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 369,386  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  416,968  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JULY/GOLD

JULY 2/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
NIL oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz  

nil

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
97 notice(s)
 9700 OZ
(0.3017 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
58 contracts
(5800 oz)
0.1804 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
661 notices
66,100 OZ
2.0559 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Everybody else: nil  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ NO amount  arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil   oz

 

 

i) we had 1 adjustment today
i) Out of Brinks:  500.05 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks

FOR THE JULY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 29 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 97 contract(s) of which 78 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (661) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY. (155 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (97 x 100 oz per contract) equals 71,900 OZ OR 2.236 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JULY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (661 x 100 oz)  + (155)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (97 x 100 oz )which equals 71,900 oz standing OR 2.236 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JUNE.

We GAINED 124  contracts or an additional 12,400 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. Somebody was in need of physical gold badly on this side of the pond…VERY UNUSUAL TO SEE QUEUE JUMPING THIS EARLY IN THE UP FRONT JULY NON ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.047 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 2.236  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  323,026.893 oz or  10.047 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,696,679.553 oz 239.39 tonnes

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
JULY 2 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 603,208.029 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
596,982.800 oz
CNT

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
300,882.670 oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
237
CONTRACT(S)
(1,185,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
713 contracts
 3,565,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3372 contracts

16,860,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into CNT:  596,982.800 oz

total dealer deposits: 596,982.800  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

i)into Scotia:  300,882.670 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  300,882.670  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of CNT: 603,208.029 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 603,208.029   oz

 

we had 0 adjustments :

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  92.920 million

total dealer + customer silver:  305.978 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2019. contract month is represented by 237 contract(s) FOR 1,185,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3372 x 5,000 oz = 16,860,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY. (950) and the number of notices served upon today (237 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 3372(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY( 950) number of notices served upon today (237)x 5000 oz equals 20,415,000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.

WE GAINED 55 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 275,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.  IT SEEMS THAT SOMEBODY WAS BADLY IN NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND JOINING GOLD!.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 237 notice(s) filed for 1,185,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  71,291 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 73,683 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 73,683 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 386 million  OZ 55.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.34% July 2/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.10% to NAV (July 2/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.34%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.77 TRADING 13.23/DISCOUNT 3.96

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: ANOTHER 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD REMOVED AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD AT THE COMEX/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.61 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

june 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP  $8.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY/STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP 0.85 TODAY: A MONSTROUS PAPER GAIN OF 16.44 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.65 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE, A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 30: WITH GOLD UP $6.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.81 TONNES

MAY 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FORM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738,81 TONNES

MAY 22//WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: WE HAD A GOOD 1.52 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 739.69 TONNES

 

 

 

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JULY 2/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 800.20 tonnes

*IN LAST 617 TRADING DAYS: 134.56 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 517 TRADING DAYS: A NET 31.12 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.575 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 9 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZE DEPOSIT OF 630,087 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.396 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.434 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 422,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ/

May 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ///

MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/

MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 311.616 MILLION OZ

MAY 21: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ

 

JULY 2/2019:

 

 

 

Inventory 323.330 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.11/ and libor 6 month duration 2.22

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .11

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.98%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.20

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.22

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

If Gold

ii) Physical stories courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

A good commentary from our good friend Hugo Salinas Price on how the monetary metal prices are suppressed by the bankers because it is true money and the bankers are supporting false money

(Hugo Salinas Price)

Hugo Salinas Price: Monetary metals prices are suppressed by the international banking cabal

 Section: 

By Hugo Salinas Price
Plata.com.mx
Monday, July 1, 2019

The prices of the precious metals — gold and silver — are under strict control by the syndicate of the international bankers. (Incidentally, I speak of the real power exercised by the International Bankers in a rather long article on my website, www.plata.com.mx. I do hope you will read it. Mr. Trump is finding out from Jay Powell of the Federal Reserve that the real power in this world is in the hands of the international bankers.)

The time when it was necessary to prove the existence of this control was over long ago. Today it is an unquestioned fact. However, most analysts of the precious metals market continue to bury their heads in the sand of falsity, for various personal reasons. Thus, they comment only on “market behavior.”

… 

Why do international bankers wish to control the prices of the precious metals?

Because their power is based on the false money they issue, and true market prices of the precious metals would clearly reveal the steady loss of purchasing power of the false money they issue and thus erode their power significantly, or even destroy it. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

http://plata.com.mx/enUS/More/378?idioma=2

END

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

 

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8763/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8793   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 0.96 POINTS OR 0.03%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 332.94 POINTS OR 1.13%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 24.30 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 96.75/Euro RISES TO 1.1299

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.26/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.97 and Brent: 64.92

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.36%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.90% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.32%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.26: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.19

3k Gold at $1392.50 silver at: 15.16   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 40/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.28

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.28 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9888 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1168 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.36%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.01% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.54%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6618..

Trade Truce Euphoria Fizzles As Markets Hit A Wall, Futures Slide

This may be the shortest post-G-20 “trade truce rally” yet, because one day after global markets jumped, with the S&P hitting record highs even though nothing material was announced in the aftermath of US-China trade talks, the rally fizzled and global stocks eked out only meager gains, while US equity futures dropped in the red, following a fresh escalation in the US trade conflict with the EU, and amid renewed worries the global economy was faltering after data showed manufacturing activity slowed last month, snuffing appetite for risk.

 

The MSCI All Country World Index was barely higher in early trading, up for a fourth straight day, although should the US open in the red, the rally will likely end. On Monday, stocks rallied enthusiastically after the US postponed imposing another round of tariffs on Chinese products and the two countries agreed to continue negotiations on trade.

But just one day later, skepticism of further gains emerged after discouraging manufacturing surveys in the past 24 hourand a threat of additional US tariffs on European goods. “It’s clear that the tariffs already in place will continue to take a toll on global and domestic growth and with Trump now turning his attention on Europe, the early bullish bias seems to ease again,” said Konstantinos Anthis, head of research at ADSS.

As reported last night, the U.S. Trade Rep’s office released a list of additional products –including olives, Italian cheese and Scotch whiskey – that could be subject to tariffs, on top of products worth $21 billion that were announced in April. The new U.S. tariff threats against Europe also point to a worrisome prospect of a broadening trade dispute, said Michael McCarthy, chief markets strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, in a note to clients.

“The problem is the widening of the dispute. Europe, the U.S. and China account for almost two thirds of global GDP,” he said. “An ongoing disruption to trade between these three major economies, prosecuted for domestic political purposes, could sink global growth.”

Despite being the subject of Lightlizer’s latest wrath, the European Stoxx 600 index managed a modest 0.2% advance, although Airbus dropped 1% as the United States stepped up pressure in the long-running dispute over aircraft subsidies. The euro climbed after Bloomberg reported ECB policy makers don’t see a need to rush into a July rate cut.

European bonds advanced alongside U.S. notes, and the yield on two-year Italian debt dropped below zero for the first time since the coalition government was formed in May 2018.

Earlier in the session Asian shares gained for a second day led by communications and utilities, as Washington and Beijing prepare for a new round of trade negotiations, with the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan adding 0.28%, helped by a 1.23% gain in Hong Kong shares as investors caught up to Monday’s global rally. Markets in Hong Kong had been closed on for a holiday. Most markets in the region edged higher after Trump said new trade talks with China is underway, ending a stalemate between the two countries amid escalating tariffs. The Topix gauge rose 0.3% for its best two-day advance since February, with technology firms among the biggest boosts; Japan’s Nikkei finished up 0.11%. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and closed flat, as China Shipbuilding Industry jumped on restructuring talks, countering declines in Kweichow Moutai. The S&P/ASX 200 index pared earlier gains to close 0.1% higher after Australia executed its first back-to-back rate cuts in seven years. The S&P BSE Sensex Index edged up 0.1%, driven by Housing Development Finance and Infosys

Australian shares were flat, pulling back from earlier gains after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a record low 1.0%, as expected, which curiously sent the AUD sharply higher. However, the RBA left limited room for more cuts, raising the possibility of unconventional policy easing.

In FX, the dollar fell against most G-10 peers, paring Monday’s rally, which was the best in more than two months. The Australian dollar led gains, climbing after the central bank cut rates as expected – its first back-to-back rate cuts in seven years – and said further policy adjustments depended on growth and inflation data. The euro rose above $1.13 after ECB policy makers were said to be not ready to rush into additional monetary stimulus at this month’s meeting.  The safe-haven yen strengthened against the dollar, which fell 0.2% to 108.24 yen per dollar, and the euro was flat at $1.1288. Most Asian currencies dropped, with the won leading declines.

In debt markets, Italian government bonds rallied after Italy cut its 2019 budget deficit target to avoid European Union disciplinary action, potentially easing another major concern for markets.

In commodity markets, oil gained as OPEC agreed to extend supply cuts until next March, although prices were pressured by worries demand may ease amid hints of a slowdown in the global economy. Treasuries climbed amid mixed trading in global stocks.

In commodities, oil fluctuated as investors weighed OPEC’s extension of output cuts into 2020. Spot gold added over half a percent to $1,392.11 per ounce. Bitcoin crashed, tumbling below $10,000 after rising to $13,000 less than a week ago.

No major economic data is expected today. Acuity Brands and Simply Good Foods are reporting earnings, while Ford, Tesla, and other carmakers release their U.S. monthly sales.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,963.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.09% to 388.22
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 162.04
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 532.45
  • Nikkei up 0.1% to 21,754.27
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,589.84
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 28,875.56
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.03% to 3,043.94
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 39,778.57
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.08% to 6,653.21
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,122.02
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to -0.36%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.1291
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 13.3 bps to 1.607%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to 0.317%
  • Brent futures down 0.3% to $64.88/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,393.11
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 96.79

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • While ECB Governing Council members agree that they could act on July 25 if the outlook deteriorates, they are said to be currently leaning toward the following meeting when they’ll have updated economic forecasts to back up their decision. The council might tweak its policy language this month to signal more stimulus is imminent
  • The U.S. added more European Union products to a list of goods it could hit with retaliatory tariffs in a long-running trans-Atlantic subsidy dispute between Boeing Co. and Airbus SE. The Trade Representative’s office in Washington on Monday published a list of $4 billion worth of EU goods to target
  • China will scrap ownership limit for securities, futures and life insurance companies by 2020, one year ahead of the original plan of 2021, Premier Li Keqiang says at the World Economic Forum in Dalian. China will keep yuan at a reasonable and equilibrium level and won’t resort to competitive depreciation
  • Jeremy Hunt said he would “100% not” suspend Parliament to force through a no-deal Brexit, drawing a dividing line with Boris Johnson as the two men entered the last days of campaigning before Tory activists start voting for the U.K.’s next prime minister.
  • OPEC will extend production cuts into 2020, attempting to buoy oil prices as the world’s leading exporters fret about the outlook for global demand growth and the relentless rise in output from America’s shale fields. Oil edged lower as investors weighed troubling economic data from around the world against OPEC’s extension of output cuts into 2020.
  • Iran said it had exceeded limits set on its enriched-uranium stockpile, a move that risks the collapse of the 2015 nuclear accord and raises concerns that a standoff with the U.S. could lead to military action
  • Italy’s populist government lowered its 2019 budget deficit goal to 2% in a bid to comply with European Union rules and avoid sanctions for failing to rein in debt. Market relief drove Italian bonds higher
  • Australia’s central bank governor signaled he’ll stand pat in coming months to observe the impact of back-to-back interest rate cuts, while standing ready to resume easing should the outlook at home or abroad take a turn for the worse
  • London bankers are bracing for thousands of job cuts. Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage, let go of 30 people in April. HSBC Holdings Plc and Deutsche Bank AG are cutting jobs. In an atmosphere that may be the gloomiest since the financial crisis, some are jumping before they’re pushed

Asian equity markets traded indecisive as the euphoria from the US-China trade truce began to wane and with the region looking ahead to this week’s key risk events. ASX 200 (U/C) was underpinned by strength in mining names and amid a widely anticipated back-to-back rate cut from the RBA, while Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) was choppy and largely reflected the price action in the domestic currency. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (U/C) were mixed with the mainland dampened after another liquidity drain by the PBoC, while Hong Kong outperformed as it played catch up on return from the extended weekend and amid declines in money market rates, with casino stocks among the biggest gainers following the strong growth in Macau gaming revenue. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued by the indecisive risk tone and after mixed results at the 10yr JGB auction failed to spur prices.

Top Asia News

  • Credit Suisse Hires UBS Veteran as Asia Head of Equity Research

Major European indices are mixed and overall largely unchanged [Euro Stoxx 50 U/C] as sentiment deteriorated overnight with the notable development being that the US Trade Representative Office has proposed increasing tariffs on EU products as a result of the aircraft subsidies; with a proposed USD 4.0bln of additional tariffs being added.  The tariffs would be on-top of the USD 21bln worth of tariffs announced by the USTR in April, with the products in question encompassing a vast range including whisky, iron tubes and cheese; a public hearing on these additions is scheduled for August 5th. Airbus (-0.9%) are afflicted on these additions as they are at the center of the European aircraft subsidies. Similarly, sectors are mixed with utilities and consumer staples outperforming on the day. In terms of this mornings notable movers, Adidas (-0.4%) opened lower after a downgrade at HSBC. Separately, but still within the Dax (-0.2%), Deutsche Bank (-0.7%) have slipped into negative territory as the broader index deteriorates on the back of negative comments from the VDMA this morning; however, the Co. did open around 1.1% higher on reports that they are considering lowering their capital buffer in order to fund the Co’s overhaul. Finally, Casino (+2.0%) are higher after selling 8 stores.

Top European News

  • Italy Cuts 2019 Deficit Goal to 2% in Bid to Avoid EU Procedure
  • Salvini Seizes Economic Reins to Take on EU in Budget Battle
  • U.K. Construction Posts Worst Month Since 2009 on Brexit Worries
  • Polish Banks Warn of $16 Billion Risk From EU Ruling, Puls Says

In FX, the Aussie has staged another strong rebound from fleeting overnight lows as bears quickly seized the opportunity to book profits in wake of the RBA’s decision to cut the OCR by another 25 bp, and other short positions were covered/squeezed on the accompanying statement suggesting no rush to ease again at the next policy meeting. Subsequently, comments from Governor Lowe appear to affirm a wait-and-see stance given back-to-back moves and Aud/Usd is inching closer to 0.7000 from 0.6958 lows, while Aud/Nzd has rebounded from sub-1.0450 towards 1.0500, with the Kiwi independently hampered by a further deterioration in NZIER business sentiment and ASB’s call for 2 more RNBZ rate reductions. Consequently, Nzd/Usd is hovering closer to the bottom of a 0.6657-80 range and eyeing the latest GDT auction next.

  • GBP/EUR – The Pound has tumbled to the base of the G10 pile on the back of June’s UK construction PMI that confounded expectations for a modest recovery and slumped even deeper into contraction at 43.1, much worse than the manufacturing miss on Monday. Moreover, components like housing and new orders were bleak, as the former fell below zero for the first time in 17 months and the latter weakened the most in over a decade. Cable is clinging to 1.2600 and Eur/Gbp is edging up towards 0.8960 as the single currency rebounds further from daily chart support vs the Dollar ahead of a Fib (circa 1.1277 and 1.1259 respectively) on ECB sourced reports downplaying July rate cut speculation. However, Eur/Usd faded around 1.1320 and could be drawn back towards decent option expiry interest between 1.1295-1.1300 (1 bn), especially after considerably weaker than forecast German retail sales data and some bleak numbers/outlooks from the likes of the DIHK and VDMA.
  • JPY – The Yen retains a relatively firm underlying bid on safe-haven grounds as the initial post-G20 euphoria dissipates and attention shifts back to the global slowdown and geopolitical factors, like the ongoing US-Iran spat. Hence, Usd/Jpy remains capped around 108.50 and the 30 DMA (108.55), but also confined on the downside at 108.00 given a generally firm Greenback as the DXY has bounced further from recent lows and back over the 200 DMA (96.690) into a loftier 96.624-879 band.
  • RBA lowered the Cash Rate by 25bps to a record low 1.00% as expected and stated that it cut rates to support employment growth, as well as provide greater confidence on inflation. RBA noted that the economy can sustain a lower rate of unemployment and that employment growth remains strong, while it added that the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable and that there are signs house prices are stabilizing in Sydney and Melbourne. (Newswires)

In commodities, the oil complex is somewhat subdued as the G20-driven positive sentiment waned. Brent (-0.4%) and WTI (-0.4%) have failed to find much support this morning on OPEC agreeing to extend the oil output cut by 9-months; with the OPEC+ meeting commencing today and the press conference expected at around 12:00 BST. In terms of recent commentary sources indicate that Russian Energy Minister Novak has given his support to the extension, with the deal to be signed soon. Nonetheless, markets will remain on guard for any dissent at today’s meeting from the non-OPEC members, with the joint verdict on an extension not expected until the OPEC+ press conference. From a technical perspective for WTI, PVM highlight that USD 59.07/bbl and USD 58.57/bbl are the two ‘pivot points’ to keep an eye on. Looking ahead, aside from the OPEC+ meeting we have the API report which last week posted a headline draw of -7.55mln BPD. Gold (+0.5%) has reverted back towards the USD 1400/oz level after yesterday’s G20-induced decline; with today’s reversion stemming from a decidedly less-positive market sentiment than yesterday. However, the USD 1400/oz level remains elusive for the yellow metal this morning, for reference session high is currently just over USD 1397/oz. In contrast to yesterday’s gains, copper has remained largely negative throughout the session as risk sentiment turning negative is weighing on the red metal.

US Event Calendar

  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 17m, prior 17.3m
  • 6:35am: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Global Economic and Policy Outlook
  • 11am: Fed’s Mester to Speak on Economy in London

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Before the weekend we sent birthday party invites out to Maisie’s new classmates for September when she starts full time nursery. Yesterday we got over 10 acceptances from parents we don’t know yet and it makes me very worried that this is going to start an endless cycle of party invites that I’m going to increasingly find it hard to plan my weekends around. So my question to parents out there with more experience is what’s the best I can get away with in terms of party/round of golf ratio? Is 1:10 a bit optimistic? Maybe I’ll request to home school the twins to avoid the next round of this in a year or so’s time. My wife has promised a children’s entertainer but without booking one yet. So all recommendations as to what will go down well with 4 year olds are very welcome!

It wasn’t a full on risk party yesterday as markets shifted between optimism over the weekend developments on the trade war and renewed macro concerns yesterday, but ultimately the S&P 500 still closed +0.76% at a fresh all-time high. That was below its opening level of +1.23%, but is nevertheless just 35pts from the psychologically significant 3,000 level. Sentiment did fade from the early highs possibly as the aftermath of the Trump/Xi talks was light on details after deeper inspection. Indeed, China has not actually confirmed any details and markets are a little confused as to what happens next. Also the offshore yuan, a very trade war-exposed asset, has actually reversed all of its rally from Sunday night.

The NASDAQ and DOW also traded down from their opening highs of +1.80% and +1.09% to end the day at +1.06% and +0.44%, respectively. Semiconductor stocks rallied +2.65%, boosted by the trade headlines and the apparent de-escalation against Huawei, while energy stocks lagged at +0.10% as oil prices declined after the OPEC meeting (more below). European bourses also peaked at their open but held onto decent gains by the close, with the STOXX 600 rising +0.78% and DAX +0.99%. The DAX is also up +20.61% from the December lows now which means it’s entered a bull market if that’s your definition of one!

Overnight one of the main stories has been the US Trade Representative’s office publishing a list of $4 bn worth of EU goods that the US could hit with duties as retaliation for European aircraft subsides, particularly to Airbus. It adds to a list of EU products valued at $21 bn that the USTR published in April, according to the release. The USTR said a public hearing on the proposed additional $4 billion worth of products will be held on August 5th and added that, “the final list will take into account the report of the WTO Arbitrator on the appropriate level of countermeasures to be authorized by the WTO.” As a reminder, the WTO has found that the EU subsidies violate international trade rules and it’s expected to decide this summer on the amount of countermeasures the US can impose. Staying with trade, President Trump said that a new round of trade talks with China is already underway as negotiators are speaking on the phone.

This morning in Asia markets are trading mixed with the Nikkei (+0.09%) up while the Shanghai Comp (-0.06%) and Kospi (-0.27%) are down. The Hang Seng is up +1.35% as Hong Kong’s market reopened after a holiday to catch up with yesterday’s move in markets. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.12%.

In other news, China’s Premier Li Keqiang said in a speech at the WEF this morning that China will scrap ownership limits for securities firms, futures businesses and life insurance companies by 2020, one year ahead of the original target of 2021. The rule change would mean foreign entities could wholly own firms in those sectors. Li also said that China is working on deeper tax cuts for businesses and it should reach CNY 2tn while adding that China remains concerned about prohibitive financing costs for smaller and medium sized businesses and will work towards the need for more monetary and fiscal support for these companies.

Back to yesterday and credit also had a good day with HY spreads 7bps tighter in the US and -6bps tighter in Europe. EM performed well with the MSCI EM equity index climbing +1.19% and EM FX +0.15%. In bonds, the big move was BTPs which rallied -13.5bps and closed at 1.967% after catching a bid with the wider risk on move, though they were also helped by unconfirmed reports that the European Commission will not recommend an excessive deficit procedure against the country as was possible as early as today (per Bloomberg). Clemente De Lucia has a writeup on the current state of play available here . The rally pushed BTP yields below 2% for the first time since May last year and with Bunds ‘only’ -3.0bps lower (albeit to a new low of -0.357%) – the BTP-Bund spread is now at 232bps and the lowest since last September. The global stock of negative yielding debt is now at $12.83tn with yesterday’s moves in rates and remains close to recent all time high of $13.01tn.

Meanwhile Treasuries were quiet all things considered, with 10y yields rising +2.4bps and back above Italian yields. Two-year yields rose +3.2bps, as markets continued to price out the odds of a 50bps cut at the Fed’s meeting later this month. The current odds are now just 20%, from 44% last week. That caused the 2st10s curve to flatten -0.7bps. In commodities, oil prices slipped -2.40% after OPEC announced an extension of its production cuts through next March but failed to reach an agreement on deeper cuts. There were also unconfirmed reports of disagreements within the cartel as well, which caused the meeting’s press conference to be delayed and sent a negative signal about future cooperation.

Moving onto the data, the general risk on came despite what was a pretty weak set of PMIs across the globe yesterday. In fact, over Sunday and Monday we counted 35 different manufacturing PMIs of which 19 came in below 50 and a worrying 27 dropped month on month. The hope will be that a trade truce can stabilise things but there’s obviously concern that the damage has already been done and will need firmer resolution to reverse it.

Notwithstanding these numbers it was the ISM manufacturing in the US which was most anticipated and to be fair the reading was better than expected at 51.7 (vs. 51.0 consensus) even if it was down -0.4pts from May. Less positive was the new orders component which dropped -2.7pts to 50.0 – the lowest since December 2015 – although employment rather encouragingly rose 0.8pts to 54.5. A few moving parts but it’s hard to ignore the fact that this was still the lowest headline ISM manufacturing reading since October 2016.

Just coming back to the final manufacturing PMIs in Europe, the Eurozone reading was revised down -0.2pts to 47.6 from the flash print and was -0.1pts lower than May. Germany (45.0 vs. 45.4 flash) and to a lesser extent France (51.9 vs. 52.0 flash) also saw downward revisions while the biggest miss was reserved for Spain (47.9 vs. 49.5 expected) which fell -2.2pts from May and also hit the lowest level since April 2013. Italy (48.4 vs. 48.7 expected) also disappointed with output and new orders falling for the eleventh consecutive month too. That also marks the ninth successive sub-50 reading. Of the 13 EU countries that reported manufacturing PMIs yesterday, only 5 posted a reading of greater than 50 with Hungary (54.4) leading the way.

Indeed the weakness includes the UK where the manufacturing PMI slumped to 48.0 last month versus expectations for a 49.5 reading. That is also a drop of-1.4pts from May and the lowest reading since February 2013. The details showed that output fell and new orders remained in negative territory too. In fact most of the sub-indices were lower with the associated text noting that “the stranglehold of sustained Brexit-related uncertainty and disruption also weighed heavily on business confidence and employment, as optimism ebbed to one of its lowest levels in the survey history”. Our UK economists noted that current levels are now consistent with prior BoE easing so this will likely increase the scrutiny of the BoE maintaining a tightening bias in the communication. We should also note that consumer credit data for May also slipped yesterday to £0.8bn. Sterling fell -0.46% yesterday while 10y Gilts ended -1.9bps lower.

As for the remaining US data, the final June manufacturing PMI was revised up +0.5pts to 50.6 which actually means it was up 0.1pts from May. Finally construction spending in May was confirmed as falling -0.8% mom, though the April figure was revised up 0.4pp.

In other news, the ECB’s new chief economists Lane made fairly dovish comments during a speech in Helsinki. This was notable as the market is still fairly new to Lane. He said that “the effectiveness of the policy toolkit means that we can add further monetary accommodation if it is required to deliver our objective” and that “it is essential that a central bank shows consistency in its monetary policy decisions by proactively responding to shocks that might delay convergence to the target or move inflation dynamics in an adverse direction”.

Meanwhile, the ECB’s Knot, one of the more hawkish members on the Governing Council, said that it is “indisputable” that inflation is too low in the euro area. He went on to say that it’s “important to underline the Governing Council stands ready to act decisively” if necessary. This contrasts with his remarks from earlier this year, where he said that price appreciation in the Dutch housing market was “exuberant” and advocated for “doing something about this.”

To the day ahead now, where this morning we’ll get the May retail sales data in Germany, June construction PMI in the UK and May PPI reading for the Euro Area. In the US the only data due is the June vehicle sales numbers. Away from the data we’ve also got scheduled comments due from the Fed’s Williams at 11.35am BST and the Fed’s Mester at 4pm BST. The ECB’s Knot and BoE’s Carney are also due to speak today. The other event is the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna where a press conference is expected at the end, however with output cuts being extended it’s unlikely that we’ll get much new news.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.96 POINTS OR 0.03%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 332.94 POINTS OR 1.17%   /The Nikkei closed UP 24.30 POINTS OR 0.11%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .14%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8763 /Oil UP TO 58.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.92 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8763 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8793 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA/USA

A very good commentary by Tom Luongo as he analyzes Trump’s move on Kim. You do not want to miss this

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 

Luongo: It’s Time For All This Insanity To Stop

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Donald Trump did the unthinkable. He went to North Korea. He stepped over the line in the sand demarked by Washington protocol for nearly seventy years.

And that Washington establishment, predictably, hates him for it. It can be felt from all sides of the political rotunda. They hate that Trump realizes their position, one of maximum pressure, isn’t working.

They despise that Russia and China will benefit from ending this frozen conflict not to mention Koreans on both sides of the DMZ.

The cynic in me thinks they are angry that the American people will benefit as well.

So this weekend was a good one for peaceniks around the world. Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping agreed to back down on the worst of his trade war demands.

Trump presumably had a good meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin which likely set the stage for his meeting with Chairman Kim Jong-un. Remember Kim met with Putin earlier this year and designated him as his go-between with Trump after the talks in Hanoi fell apart.

 

The Bile Belt

This event should not be downplayed. Trump showed great humility and generosity towards Kim at the moment of truth. We should be cheering this regardless of what we think of him personally.

Diplomacy is not groveling. It is the acknowledgment of the other person’s basic humanity, a fundamental point lost in the political cesspit that is D.C.

Because of his previous mistakes and belligerence, only Trump could have made the walk across the DMZ to meet Kim on his territory. Only someone as blunt as Trump could cut through the nonsense that North Korea isn’t capable of independent action.

And only people so full of bile and despite would not be happy about this. Only people so enthralled with the thought of war and their own political and social ambitions would look at this event and seek to tear it down.

These are the people who lost yesterday in Trump’s historic and brilliant bit of diplomacy. And they are complaining bitterly about it today.

Everyone else wins.

In the land of the Twitterati, after stripping away the snark masquerading as analysis, we are left with a bunch of malcontents bemoaning their lost relevance.

I’m not praising him today to get back on anyone’s good side. I’ve been very straight about this. When Trump does good I praise him. When he screws up or acts dangerously I lambaste him.

And that is exactly how we should treat, at all times, all politicians everywhere. The telling point today is that the whole of the Washington establishment, Democrats and Neocons, are aghast at the prospect of peace.

The Wrong Path to Peace

I’ve been a harsh critic of most of Trump’s foreign policy moves since April 2017, when he bombed the airbase at Khan Sheikoun in Syria. It was the first inkling that he didn’t understand the rules of the game he was playing.

And those initial bombings would cost him far more in the end then he could ever gain. Not only did he lose most of his first term in office but he lost the trust of most world leaders pandering to establishment forces within the U.S. Deep State and donor class.

We can trace each move since then as a continuum leading up to Iran shooting down a U.S. Global Hawk drone and see we were always going to end up right where we are.

Because the alternative is a world at war. And think what you want about Trump, I’ve never been convinced that he was interested in that. If anything his problem has been allowing his fundamental humanity to be twisted into something ugly, limbicly lashing out at ‘bad guys’ like at Khan Shiekoun and not seeing the lies around it for what they were.

In the past few weeks we’ve seen a smarter, savvier Trump avoid the traps his allies and advisors set for him. He’s showed immense restraint.

And now, Trump is climbing down off the immense mountain of entitlement he and his advisors placed him on. By stepping over the line into North Korea and meeting with Kim for nearly an hour he’s beginning to deliver on the promises he made during the 2016 campaign.

Why wouldn’t I or anyone else be cheering?

When Iran shot down that drone I said on Sputnik Radio that to solve Iran’s nuclear weapons problem Trump should be looking to North Korea. Getting Kim to agree to freezing warhead production, and presumably dissemination, ends the possibility of Iran achieving that goal anytime soon.

After meeting with most of his ‘enemies’ at the G-20, Trump did just that. He pivoted away from Iran, now a source of political pitfalls, back to North Korea which was the right thing to do.

If Iran wanted a bomb they would have one. If Russia and China wanted Iran to have one, they would have one.

So all of this talk is simply theater. Just like the strategic importance of North Korea in 2019 is still relevant with China fully capable of projecting its interests on its own.

It’s time for this insanity to end. Full stop.

The Koreans want it. The Russians want it. The Chinese want it. Japan wants it.

And we should want it too.

Free at Last?

From the moment he began to engage Kim directly Trump’s strategy was to acknowledge the reality that North Korea can stand on its own. That it is not a puppet state of China.

It has been a constant theme of his while his advisory team tells him otherwise.

Well, they were in Mongolia on Sunday, while the best proxy for his antiwar base was on Air Force One.

Jonathan Cheng

@JChengWSJ

In the room: N. Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho (left) and Tucker Carlson.

Trump’s instincts about denuclearization are correct and laudable. It has been his execution of how to achieve that goal that has been the problem.

He has allowed unbridled hawks whose sanity should surely be questioned to define him and his policy. He knows the failure of the Hanoi talks were a mistake.

He knows that the adventure in Venezuela was as well.

In the past ten days he’s called out National Security Advisor John Bolton publicly, called him a hawk and sent him to Mongolia while Trump made history.

Say what you want about him, Trump is pretty good at this messaging thing.

The coming days will be filled with discussion about what this all means.

I’m not going to do that now. Let’s enjoy the first bit of good foreign policy news since April 2017 and realize that the ship is turning and headed back to port.

Trump’s not out of the rough seas yet, but he finally found the right course to steer.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon or donate to Gold Goats ‘n Guns if you hate war, like peace and hate being lied to. And install the Brave browser to build a new web identity away from Google’s prying eyes where you can earn by browsing and tip your favorite sites (like this one) directly.

end

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3c China/Chinese affairs

USA semi conductor Industry chipmakers lobbied Trump and suggested to him that long term they would be hurt as they would be blocked entry into the big Chinese market.  Trump relented.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Last-Ditch Lobbying Chipmaker Lobbying Blitz Convinced Trump To Drop Huawei From Blacklist

This should surprise absolutely nobody: Bloomberg reported Tuesday that  President Trump’s decision to allow some American chipmakers to continue doing business with Huawei followed an intense lobbying effort by industry group SIA – i.e.  the Semiconductor Industry Association.

The argument SIA used to convince the  president  was simple yet effective: sanctions against Huawei would make US chipmakers appear to be undependable partners, which could crimp their competitiveness against  increasingly sophisticated international  rivals.

Before Trump left for Osaka, a team of lobbyists met with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to argue that the decision to add Huawei to the “entities list” – effectively blacklisting the firm by severely restricting  what American firms are allowed to sell to Huawei – was short-sighted and could do serious harm to a critical American industry.

Semis

The lobbyists turned Trump’s national security argument – the idea that Huawei must be cut out of American markets because its products could enable Beijing to carry out mass espionage – on its head, arguing that cutting off US chipmakers from one of their largest international markets (China) would hurt long-term profitability as well as the company’s CapEx spend.

“Overly broad restrictions that not only constrain the ability of U.S. semiconductor companies to conduct business around the world, but also casts U.S. companies as risky and undependable, puts at risk the success of this industry, which in turn impacts our national security,” the group wrote last month. They added that the administration should take into account those factors when evaluating license applications from American firms.

And as it so happens, their arguments found their way to President Trump, who parroted some of these points when he unveiled his plan to give Huawei a reprieve.

Their talking points seem to have found their way to Trump. After concluding a high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Osaka on Saturday, the U.S. president said American firms weren’t pleased with his Huawei policy and announced that he has agreed to let them keep shipping some of their components and technology.

“I’ve agreed — and pretty easily — I’ve agreed to allow them to continue to sell that product so American companies will continue,” the president said during a press conference. “The companies were not exactly happy that they couldn’t sell because they had nothing to do with whatever was potentially happening with respect to Huawei. So I did do that.”

Though there are still some strings attached.

He later clarified he will only allow them to sell “equipment where there is no great national emergency problem with it,” without offering more details. Trump’s comments stoked confusion among industry and analysts and the White House has not yet announced specifics on the path forward for U.S. companies doing business with Huawei.

The success of this lobbying effort just goes to show: While Trump has frustrated corporate America with his sometimes erratic approach to protectionism, his own belligerent  rhetoric can be successfully used against him.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Europe

Just as China and the uSA entered into a ceasefire on their trade war, the USA has just entered into a new one with Europe. Very upset with subsidies on airplane production in Europe, the USA were very upset and they are now ready to engage with their tariffs. This does not include the introduction of Europe’s own SWIFT system (INSTEX) which is already embroiling Trump

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Proposes An Additional $4 Billion In Tariffs On European Imports

As one US trade war – that with China – enters a fragile truce, another trade war is about to make a dramatic return.

A little under three months after the US announced on April 12 that it would seek tariffs on roughly $21 billion of European goods over EU subsidies of civil aircraft, which in turn was followed almost immediately by European threats of $12 billion in retaliatory tariffs on US products such as Ketchup, Orange Juice and Tobacco, moments ago the US trade representative proposed a supplemental list of products that could potentially be subject to additional duties in order to enforce U.S. rights in the WTO dispute against the European subsidies airplane

This supplemental list adds 89 “tariff subheadings” with a trade value of $4 billion to the initial list published on April 12, which had an approximate trade value of $21 billion. USTR is adding to the initial list with the supplemental list in response to public comments and additional analysis.

In the event the Arbitrator issues its decision prior to completion of the public comment process on the supplemental list, the USTR may immediately impose increased duties on the products included in the initial list, and take further possible actions with respect to products on the supplemental list.

The supplemental list, as well as the schedule for a public hearing and written comments, are set out in a notice that will be published shortly in the Federal Register.

And now we wait as Europe counters with its own expanded list of tariffs on US imports, sending the market surging on “hopes of an imminent trade war deal/ceasefire” between the US and Europe.

END

A very important commentary from Mish Shedlock on Trumps threats to begin tariffs on European goods.  As explained above the EU lost on the WTO hearing on illegal subsidies to Airbus and that allows new tariffs to be initiated.  Trump wants to sell agriculture to the EU but it is difficult to get all 27 nations on board.

This is going to be quite a show..

(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

 

Tariff Ping-Pong: Trump Again Threatens The EU

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The moment Trump caved in on China tariffs, threats against the EU were a given.

China called Trump’s bluff so the tariff threats return to the EU.

The EU problem is stickier because the EU does not buy US farm products and won’t.

Please consider U.S. Proposes More European Tariffs Pending Airbus Case.

The U.S. widened its threat to impose tariffs against the European Union, pending the outcome of a World Trade Organization case over the EU’s subsidies of the airplane manufacturer Airbus SE .

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said Monday that as part of a long-running dispute over aircraft subsidies it would consider tariffs on an additional 89 items with an annual trade value of $4 billion, including cheese, pasta and Scottish and Irish whiskies as well as chemicals and metals.

The announcement expands the USTR’s earlier threat, and now leaves items with a trade value of about $21 billion a year under consideration for tariffs, according to the statement.

The issue between the aircraft companies, however, predates President Trump by over a decade. The EU and U.S. have been tangling before the WTO for about 15 years over dueling claims that airline manufacturers are unfairly subsidized. The WTO has found that both sides unfairly subsidize their aircraft and may make a decision later this year that would allow the U.S. and EU to impose tariffs as countermeasures to these unfair subsidies. The WTO will also rule on the extent of harm caused by the subsidies, which would determine the size of tariffs that would be permissible in response.

These tariffs differ from most others pursued by the Trump administration because they would be imposed in response to an official WTO ruling, rather than being unilaterally initiated by Washington.

First Mover “Advantage”

Trump has a first mover “advantage” if you consider levying tariffs with WTO permission an advantage.

Although both sides are guilty as sin, the WTO ruled against the EU first.

What Does Trump Want?

Trump wants a comprehensive trade agreement that includes agriculture.

The EU wants an agreement that does not cover agriculture.

Specifically, Trump wants to sell GMOs, chlorinated chicken, etc., to the EU but that is impossible.

Impossible? Why?

Because Trade deals with the EU must be unanimous.

Even if 26 other nations say OK, France will say no.

That’s the end of the ag-deal story but pressure on the EU mounts in other ways.

Timing Pressure on EU

  1. German exports and industrial production are already under serious attack over diesel and coal by the Greens.
  2. In case of a No Deal Brexit, tariffs will hammer the EU vs the UK as the UK is a net importer of EU goods.
  3. Next, factor in the very real threat of US tariffs on German cars.
  4. Finally, factor in an out-of-control budget deficit in Italy against EU rules

The timing of this announcement could not possibly be worse for the EU.

Rise of the Greens

The Rise of the Greens = Deindustrialization of Germany

The vaunted German export machine is under serious attack, on multiple fronts.

Advantage UK

I do not believe Trump caves as easily on this one as he did with China.

If so, the UK is the big beneficiary.

Purposely or not, the timing of this announcement adds to the Increasingly Likely Odds of the UK Getting a Good Brexit Deal with the EU.

That would suit Trump just fine.

 

end

EUROPE/ISIS FIGHTERS

Europe has no idea where returning ISIS fighters are located.

(courtesy Kern/Gatestone)

Europe’s Missing Islamic State Fighters

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

  • Swedish Television surveyed officials in the five Swedish municipalities — Gothenburg, Stockholm, Örebro, Malmö and Borås — that are home to most of the 150 IS returnees and found that those municipalities combined only have knowledge of the whereabouts of a maximum of 16 adults and 10 children.
  • The United States is asking Britain, France, Germany and other European allies to take back over 800 ISIS fighters that we captured in Syria and put them on trial… The alternative is not a good one in that we will be forced to release them…” — U.S. President Donald Trump, Twitter, February 16, 2019.
  • The Wall Street Journal, in a recent editorial, “The West’s Foreign Fighter Problem,” noted that European governments face a “Catch-22” situation: either repatriate and prosecute their jihadis, or risk that they disappear off the radar and carry out new attacks in Europe.

The German government has lost track of scores of Germans who travelled to Iraq and Syria in recent years to join the Islamic State (IS). The revelation comes amid growing fears that some of these fighters are returning to Germany undetected by authorities.

The German Interior Ministry, in response to a question from the Secretary General of the classical liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), Linda Teuteberg, revealed that German authorities lack information on the whereabouts of at least 160 Germans who left to fight with the IS, according to Welt am Sonntag. The ministry said that while some had probably been killed in combat, others have gone into hiding and may be trying to resettle in Germany.

 

“In view of the very fragmented protection of the EU’s external borders, it is particularly worrying that the federal government appears to have taken no further measures to prevent the uncontrolled re-entry of underground IS fighters,” Teuteberg told Welt am Sonntag.

She added that the government “still has no concept” for dealing with former IS fighters from Germany, including “Germans detained in the war zone as well as the more than 200 former IS supporters who are now back in Germany.”

Teuteberg said that the Interior Ministry should come up with a plan for how to deal with IS returnees and how to hold them accountable, by, for example, strengthening the legal capacity to investigate and prosecute war crimes abroad.

Of the estimated 1,050 Germans who travelled to Iraq and Syria to fight in recent years, approximately one-third (350) have returned to Germany. Another 220 are believed to have been killed on the battlefield. According to government sources cited by the German television program Tagesschau, approximately 120 are being detained in Iraq and Syria. In addition, at least 138 children of German IS fighters are being held Iraq and Syria. The whereabouts of the others are unknown.

The German government downplayed Teuteberg’s concerns that IS fighters can return to Germany unnoticed:

“Given the different measures (including most-wanted lists or entry barriers) that make uncontrolled re-entry significantly more difficult, it is also assumed in the future that entry without the knowledge of the German security authorities should remain the exception.”

It is known, however, that IS fighters have entered Europe — including Germany — undetected by posing as migrants: a majority of the terrorists who carried out the November 2015 Paris attacks, in which 130 people were killed and 360 injured, entered Europe by posing as migrants, according to counter-terrorism investigators. Most of the attackers were well-known to police and at least nine were on terrorist watch lists. Once they passed through the EU’s porous borders in southern Europe, they were able to travel throughout the rest of Europe undetected.

Missing IS fighters are a Europe-wide problem. A July 2018 study by the International Center for the Study of Radicalization (ICSR) at King’s College London estimated that more than 5,900 people — 3,379 men, 1,023 women, 1,502 minors — from Western Europe joined the Islamic State. Another 7,250 people from Eastern Europe joined the group.

According to ICSR estimates, around 1,765 IS fighters have returned to Western Europe, and 784 have returned to Eastern Europe. At least 800 IS fighters are being held at Kurdish detention camps in northern Syria. Around 700 of the fighters’ wives and 1,500 of their children are also in camps, according to Reuters. It remains unclear how many of the unaccounted IS fighters have been killed on the battlefield, and how many have gone into hiding.

In Austria, for instance, of the 250 IS fighters, 93 have returned. In Belgium, of the 500 IS fighters, 123 have returned. In Britain, of the 850 IS fighters, 425 have returned. In Denmark, of the 145 IS fighters, 72 have returned. In France, of the 1,900 IS fighters, 400 have returned. In Italy, of the 129 IS fighters, 11 have returned. In the Netherlands, of the 300 IS fighters, 60 have returned. In Spain, of the 210 IS fighters, 30 have returned.

In Sweden, of the estimated 300 people who left the country to join the Islamic State, approximately 150 have returned, according to the Swedish Security Service (Säpo). Around 100 Swedish fighters are believed to have died on the battlefield; the government does not have information on the whereabouts of the others.

Between 35 and 40 Swedish IS fighters have returned to Stockholm, but the municipality has not made contact with a single returnee, and may not even know where any of them live, according to an exposé by Swedish Television (SVT), the national public television broadcaster.

SVT surveyed officials in the five Swedish municipalities — Gothenburg, Stockholm, Örebro, Malmö and Borås — that are home to most of the 150 IS returnees, and found that those municipalities combined only have knowledge of the whereabouts of a maximum of 16 adults and 10 children.

The apparent apathy has been attributed to Sweden’s lack of legislation.

“We are almost the only country in the EU that lacks legislation against participation and cooperation with terrorist organizations,” said Magnus Ranstorp, a counter-terrorism expert at the Swedish Defense University in Stockholm.

“We are of course vulnerable,” he added. “Those who are dangerous and out on our streets can recruit more, and they can even plan terrorist acts.”

Meanwhile, hundreds of foreign jihadi fighters who are being held in Syria represent a “time bomb” and could escape and threaten the West unless countries do more to take them back, according to the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed authorities holding them.

“It seems most of the countries have decided that they’re done with them, let’s leave them here, but this is a very big mistake,” said Abdulkarim Omar of the Syrian Democratic Forces.

“Their home countries must do more to prosecute foreign fighters and rehabilitate their families, or else this will be a danger and a time bomb.”

In February 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump called on European countries to repatriate and prosecute their foreign fighters:

“The United States is asking Britain, France, Germany and other European allies to take back over 800 ISIS fighters that we captured in Syria and put them on trial. The Caliphate is ready to fall. The alternative is not a good one in that we will be forced to release them…

“The U.S. does not want to watch as these ISIS fighters permeate Europe, which is where they are expected to go. We do so much, and spend so much. Time for others to step up and do the job that they are so capable of doing. We are pulling back after 100% Caliphate victory!”

In April, Trump tweeted:

“We have 1,800 ISIS Prisoners taken hostage in our final battles to destroy 100% of the Caliphate in Syria. Decisions are now being made as to what to do with these dangerous prisoners…. European countries are not helping at all, even though this was very much done for their benefit. They are refusing to take back prisoners from their specific countries. Not good!”

On June 24, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, called for all foreign fighters who are being detained in Syria and Iraq to be repatriated, investigated and prosecuted, or released. “The continuing detention of individuals not suspected of crimes, in the absence of lawful basis and regular independent judicial review, is not acceptable,” she said.

Europe’s reluctance to take back their IS fighters is based on a mix of legal, financial and political factors. Some countries have begun repatriating the children of IS jihadis on a case-by-case basis but taking back foreign fighters and their families is deeply unpopular and carries political risk.

In France, for instance, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe recently said that he preferred that French jihadis were repatriated rather than them risk evading justice. They should be “tried, convicted and punished in France rather than disappearing in the wild to plan other actions, including against our country,” he said in a January 30 interview with France Inter. His comments sparked an immediate backlash. Valérie Boyer of the center-right party Les Républicains toldparliament that the government must “prevent the return of jihadists who betrayed France and fought against our civilization.”

National Assembly MEP Nicolas Bay, who is also a member of the executive board of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), added:

“The French jihadis, by their commitment alongside groups that declared war on our country, having committed ignoble attacks on our territory, these jihadists have deliberately chosen to break with France and there is no justification for granting them any protection.

“Rather than preparing for their return, the government should do everything possible to prevent them from returning to French territory! They must be judged by the competent Syrian and Iraqi authorities.”

Philippe subsequently did an about-face. In a March 6 interview with BFM TV, he said:

“We will not bring back anybody. The French doctrine has always been that the French fighters who are going to combat zones are fighting against us. When they are detained, they are to be judged and, if necessary, punished on the spot [in Iraq or Syria].”

The Wall Street Journal, in a recent editorial, “The West’s Foreign Fighter Problem,” noted that European governments face a “Catch-22” situation: either repatriate and prosecute their jihadis, or risk that they disappear off the radar and carry out new attacks in Europe. The Journal wrote:

“In February President Trump tweeted that the U.S. ‘is asking Britain, France, Germany and other European allies to take back’ their ISIS fighters and prosecute them at home. Indonesia, Morocco, Russia, and Sudan started the process months ago, but Western European governments are resisting.

“Bending to domestic political pressure, European politicians like U.K. Home Secretary Sajid Javid have vowed to reject ISIS members and even strip them of citizenship. German and French officials also publicly express skepticism about accepting imprisoned terrorists. Countries that criticized the U.S. over Guantanamo Bay now are turning a blind eye to the detention of their citizens elsewhere….

“The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have treated detainees humanely, but it can’t hold them forever. The group eventually will have no choice but to let the prisoners go — making a manageable security threat much worse. These battle-hardened fighters are especially dangerous given their practical knowledge and the respect they could command among would-be jihadists.

Many released fighters would slip into Iraq, blend in with sympathetic Sunni populations, and prepare for an ISIS revival. Others could exploit security vacuums in Libya or Somalia or jump-start conflicts in other unstable regions. Perhaps the greatest risk is that some will return to the West undetected alongside refugees. Countries hesitant to take back their citizens now should realize they might return anyway—clandestinely.”

END

ECB

It looks like the ECB will cut rates at the following meeting and not the meeting in July.  The problem of course is that rates are already negative in Europe and this is going to send them further into NIRP

(courtesy zerohedge)

Euro Jumps After ECB Sees “No Rush” For July Rate Cut

One day after both we and the WSJ previewed the ECB’s next easing bazooka, which in addition to cutting rates could also include tens of billions in monthly QE in the form of both the PSPP and CSPP…

the ECB tried to regain control of the narrative and early on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that ECB policy makers “aren’t yet ready to rush into additional monetary stimulus at this month’s meeting”, preferring instead to wait for more data on the economy, according to euro-area central-bank officials familiar with the matter.

As Bloomberg’s source at the ECB – who asked not to be identified as he is most likely the head of the ECB – leaked, while Governing Council members agree that they could act on July 25 if the outlook deteriorates, “they are currently leaning toward the following meeting in September when they’ll have updated economic forecasts to back up their decision.” Instead of acting, the council might tweak its policy language this month to signal more stimulus is imminent.

 

This, of course, is precisely what Goldman said yesterday, when it wrote that it expects the Governing Council to adopt the “or lower” easing bias for policy rates in July and indicate that the ECB will analyze QE options for September.

At that point look for an easing package that closely resembles the “medium” package discussed above, including a 20bp rate cut with tiering, enhanced forward guidance and a return to QE.

Furthermore, Goldman expects the asset purchases to include corporate bonds and sovereign debt within the existing PSPP headroom, paired with a signal that the Governing Council stands ready to expand the sovereign purchase program with an increase in the issuer limit if economic conditions do not improve.

As Bloomberg adds, waiting until September meshes with investor expectations, as the market is now pricing a 10 basis-point rate cut by then, but some are looking for faster or bigger action. Commerzbank and Morgan Stanley expect 10 basis points as early as this month. HSBC forecasts 10 basis points in both September and December, and Goldman Sachs foresees 20 basis points in September. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs also expect a resumption of quantitative easing.

A delay also leaves the market more exposed to shocks over the summer months when liquidity is thinner. The prospect of escalating trade tensions was highlighted on Monday when the U.S. proposed adding more tariffs to European Union goods because of a dispute between Boeing Co. and Airbus SE.

Not surprisingly, a delay in easing by the ECB was seen as bullish for the common currency, and the euro jumped to the highest level of the day, climbing as much as 0.3% to $1.1321.

end

ECB

The ECB is staying quite clear away from German hawk Weidmann:  they have selected uber dove Christine Lagarde to head the ECB.  what a joke!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

IMF’s Uber-Dove Lagarde Rumored To Replace Mario Draghi As ECB President

After failing to push through her pick to succeed Jean-Claude Juncker at the helm of the European Commission, ‘lame duck’ German Chancellor Angela Merkel is instead proposing a more palatable pick to succeed Mario Draghi at the ECB.

Virtually guaranteeing that the Draghi-era stimulus will only accelerate, Merkel and several other officials involved in the selection process have settled on IMF head Christine Lagarde. BBG described Lagarde’s candidacy as “one of the key pieces in the latest slate of candidates for the EU’s top jobs which leaders, lawmakers and parties have been wrangling over since Sunday.”

It’s fair to assume that Lagarde would kick the central bank’s money-printing into high gear. Though she has on occasion expressed skepticim, she has also praised the PBOC and its untrammeled stimulus.

More recently, during an interview with CNBC back in April, Lagarde warned that the global economy is mired in a “delicate moment” and that Trump’s trade wars are responsible for these problems. This was around the time the IMF issued its latest slashed forecasts for global growth.

With so many investors, banks, businesses ad others desperately hoping that the world’s central banks will keep the economic expansion alive, instead of deliberately killing it.

Though they recently feuded over Merkel’s plan to install Franz Timmermans as the European  Commission’s next president, apparently, the leaders of the eurozone’s two largest economies have reached a compromise to fill the two most important bloc-level jobs, including  Draghi’s soon to be vacant post.

German defense minister Ursula von der Leyen is emerging as the latest frontrunner to lead the commission after eastern member states and the EPP, Europe’s center-right political party, objected to a package floated over the weekend that would have seen Dutch socialist Frans Timmermans take that post.

Officials in Berlin say that Chancellor Angela Merkel is a fan of Lagarde and she would enjoy widespread support from among the governing Christian Democrats. The combination of Lagarde and Von der Leyen however was proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron in a conversation with Merkel on Monday night, an EU official said.

Of course, under the European tradition of filling these jobs by horse-trading, Lagarde’s candidacy must be accepted by all parties alongside the nominees to the four other key  bloc-level posts. Fortunately, Lagarde reportedly enjoys wide-ranging support among the center-right and center-left  in the EU Parliament.

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran/USA

A good look at what Trump will do next when dealing with Iran

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Where Does Trump Go From Here With Iran?

Authored by Tom Luongo via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Donald Trump has boxed himself into a corner. His maximum pressure campaign on Russia, China, Iran and the Palestinians isn’t working. Time is ticking by and we are now, officially, into campaign season for 2020, when these operations were supposed to have been resolved by now.

While Trump still draws nearly unfathomable crowds for his rallies he is staring at an abyss of bad decisions in front of him which will see him either reverse course on all of his signature wins with his base over the past year – getting tough on Iran and China, going after evil socialists in Venezuela – or face a global economic meltdown which his daily Surreality Show is fomenting.

 

Trump refuses to take responsibility for anything that is happening. Everything is someone else’s fault.

  • Trade balance? China. Europe. Mexico. Canada.
  • Unrest in the Middle East? Iran. ISIS. Hezbollah. Russia.
  • Collapse and conflict in Ukraine? Russia.
  • Border Security? The Democrats.
  • Interest Rates? The Fed.

His inability to see how his moves affect events in the context of the global arena is his greatest weakness. It should have been a strength, his lack of shame. But it isn’t. Because now he’s gotten himself so far over-extended on Iran he’s been exposed as all bark and no bite.

He’s pushed Iran into a corner and from that corner they decided to finally strike back by downing a Global Hawk drone flying in full stealth mode over Iranian airspace if the Iranian side of the story is to be believed.

And regardless of the specifics of the situation, since we will never know the truth of the matter, the outcome and the way the narratives were handled it’s clear that Iran was sending a very strong message to the US.

Not one more inch.

Because while the US is more than capable of wiping Iran off the map for all intents and purposes, the truth is that for all of that capability, the after-effects of using it would be devastating for the world.

In common parlance the term is ‘blowback.’

The Western financial system is very much a paper tiger. And I do believe someone finally whispered in Trump’s ear after the drone was shot down that if he strikes Iran the consequences would be devastating for everyone.

Remember, Iran has nothing left to lose financially. The US has tried to take it all away. If the sanctions are working they are only doing so to accelerate the timetable which brought us to this point.

And a man who has nothing left to lose is a man who could easily lose it and take everyone with him. Pepe Escobar wrote about this at length recently. And while I agree with his overall thesis I think he’s out over his skis about the numbers themselves.

Suffice it to say that with nearly $13 trillion in negative-yielding debt, Deutsche Bank functionally insolvent and oil supplies vulnerable to supply shock that the aftermath of a series of attacks on infrastructure around the region, that over-leveraged capital markets trading at nose-bleed prices could collapse quickly triggering cascading defaults around the globe.

Regardless of the specifics, chaos would be the order of the day and markets hate chaos.

So Iran shot down that drone knowing full well that any US response would be disproportionate, to use Trump’s words. It took a level of character I didn’t think he or anyone else thought he had in calling off the airstrikes.

So I’ll give him credit for that. He needs to do more of it. And his signaling to Iran that he’s willing to talk with no pre-conditions is proof that he’s got negotiations on his mind. But Iran can no more come to the table with Trump than Trump can back down on his bluster and sabre-rattling with Iran.

Iran is right to say they won’t negotiate at gunpoint. This is especially true when it has been revealed that the guns themselves can’t actually be fired. Their leadership would collapse overnight if they began talks with Trump. That drone is now a rallying point for Iranians to support their government on in the short-term.

They gain nothing by coming to the table. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif went on a charm tour earlier this year to make Iran’s case and was roundly ignored by the US The opportunity was there then and the message from Iran was ignored.

What’s changed now that Trump wants to talk?

The sanctions are working? Please, don’t make me laugh. Russia’s National Security Advisor Nikolai Patrushev made it clear in his remarks that Russia stands behind Iran and that it will not tolerate any more aggression by the US I’m sure John Bolton’s mustache didn’t want to hear that.

“In the context of the statements made by our partners with regard to a major regional power, namely Iran, I would like to say the following: Iran has always been and remains our ally and partner, with which we are consistently developing relations both on bilateral basis and within multilateral formats,” Patrushev said after the trilateral meeting.

“This is why we believe that it is inadmissible to describe Iran as a major threat to regional security and, moreover, to put it on par with the Islamic State or any other terrorist organization,” Patrushev stated.

Russia’s National Security Advisor calling Iran an ally was significant. And I have to think that given some of the circumstances surrounding the drone that part of Iran’s message was 1) we have better weapons than you think we had and 2) the Russians gave them to us while denying it.

So, if you are coming after us it will have to be at a level that will make everyone outside of K-Street very uncomfortable. Trump will literally have to ‘go big or go home.’ Given the circumstances that seems unlikely.

It is in Russia’s long-term best interest to keep Iran stable and relatively prosperous. They cannot afford a failed state and chaos in Iran. Note the timing of violent uprisings in Georgia. Don’t think these things are related? Think again.

Keeping the Russians busy with multiple hotspots is the plan here. But Russia isn’t confused about this strategy. Expect in the coming weeks to see more direct support from Russia to Iran. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Goods-for-Oil program hasn’t already been expanded and that Iran is one of those countries the Bank of Russia mentioned wanting access to Russia’s version of SWIFT, SPFS, to clear transactions sanctioned by the US

It’s not like it would matter one bit to most Russian banks since they are already sanctioned by the US in the first place.

Once that happens and it’s clear the US will not stop Iranian tankers from sailing, all that remains is for the proper financial intermediaries to be put in place to keep the US off balance and Iran’s oil will flow.

The sanctions will be in effect, Iran will be starved of dollars and the medium-term pain will be acute. But it will be another move away from the dollar settling the trade of oil.

So back to my original question, where does Trump go from here?

Iran won’t allow him to save face. I don’t have a good answer for that but Iran is betting that re-election will stay his hand for another year. He can and should start with firing the architects of this failed ‘maximum pressure’ policy and send everyone a clear signal that he’s ready to climb off the mountain they’ve built for him.

As long as the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia look the other way while Iran ‘smuggles’ its oil everything will calm down. If they don’t then things will get ugly from here for all involved.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

MEXICO, GUADALAJARA

Global warming?

(zerohedge)

Guadalajara Hit By Freak Hail Storm; Cars Buried, Hundreds Of Structures Damaged

Guadalajara, Mexico was struck by a freak hail storm on Sunday, burying vehicles and trapping residents in ice pellets up to two meters (6.5 ft) deep, according to AFP.

“I’ve never seen such scenes in Guadalajara,” said state governor, adding “Then we ask ourselves if climate change is real. These are never-before-seen natural phenomenons.”

“It’s incredible!”

 

Guadalajara, located north of Mexico City and with a population of around five million, has been experiencing summer temperature of around 31 Centigrade (88 Fahrenheit) in recent days.

While seasonal hail storms do occur, there is no record of anything so heavy.

At least six neighborhoods in the city outskirts woke up to ice pellets up to two meters deep. –AFP

As children threw rock-hard ice balls at each other, Mexican Civil Protection personnel and state soldiers cleared the roads using heavy machinery.

 

Approximately 200 hopes and businesses reported hail damage, while around 50 vehicles were swept away in mountainous regions. Some were buried completely under the deluge of pellets.

No casualties were reported, however two people exhibited “early signs of hypothermia” according to the Civil Protection office.

end
Michael Every lays out comparisons of today and the 1930’s. He covers England, France, Iran and China/Hong Kong\\
(a must read)
courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

Rabobank: “There Are Lots Of Comparisons One Can Make To The 1930s At The Moment, None Flattering”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday’s 1 July handover day celebrations in Hong Kong did not go as smoothly at all. After rain had forced the flag-raising ceremony indoors for the first time, early clashes between police and protestors were a harbinger of what was to follow. While hundreds of thousands peacefully marched, thousands of very young protesters literally tore their way through to occupy and graffiti the Legislative Council (LegCo): they blacked out the Hong Kong symbol above Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s chair; briefly lay the British colonial flag on her desk; insisted Lam resign and the Extradition Bill be scrapped, not paused; and left a banner demanding full democracy.

This raises the stakes in all manner of ways. Lam is refusing to move on any front; the silent majority might be sympathetic to the goal but are far from happy with the recent disorder; Beijing is no doubt furious; pro-China protests and groups are already emerging on the streets too, suggesting clashes may occur at some point; and journalists who spoke with the teenagers in LegCo report many profess to be desperate enough to die for their cause. In short, the situation is far from good – for Hong Kong, for markets,…and perhaps for the HKD if one looks further out(?) Don’t forget that the US will be watching closely what happens in terms of HK’s autonomy and its legal recognition of the territory.

At the same time, Iran announced, and the IEAE confirmed, it had exceeded the 300kg uranium-enriching limit set in the 2015 nuclear deal. While Tehran can still step back from this, they are demanding Europe act on circumventing US sanctions on it forthwith to do so. That action will almost certainly trigger a sharp US reaction. The military option is obviously there but is not one US President Trump favours. Yet the razor-sharp tools of tariffs and sanctions and SWIFT and the USD are all available and already being used: would the US really fire them at the EU? (It is already threatening USD4bn more tariffs over the Airbus case.)

Not coincidentally, the head of Mossad gave a rare public speech in which he stated ”I say to you, with certainty, based on the best sources of both Israeli and Western espionage, that Iran is behind these attacks. They were approved by Iranian leadership and carried out, in large part, by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies….There is nothing innocent in Iran’s actions in general and in its nuclear project in particular. All claims that the enriched uranium is for research or power are a total lie.” US Secretary of State Pompeo likewise tweeted: “Iran’s regime has taken new steps to advance its nuclear ambitions. Once again, the regime uses its nuclear program to extort the international community and threaten regional security. The world’s top sponsor of terrorism can never be allowed to enrich uranium at any level.” Moreover, the White House has made clear that maximum pressure tactics will continue, and that it no longer believes Iran should have the ability to enrich any uranium at all. In short, the situation is far from good.

For its part, Europe is still tied up in k/nots over who gets what key job and nobody can agree on anything, it seems. France’s President summed up the situation rather brutally: “We have to review all the consequences of such a failure. Our credibility is profoundly stained with meetings that are too long that yield nothing. We give an image of a Europe that is not serious.” Well, quite. If only the EU had serious leadership like Boris Johnson and his “I can confirm he owns more than one pair of socks” official statement; or Jeremy Hunt, who miraculously has billions of pounds to spend if he becomes PM – or not, says his soon-to-be ex-Chancellor Hammond. In short, the situation is far from good.

Meanwhile, against this backdrop this is now the longest US economic expansion in its entire history; the S&P is at a record high; and the Dow just had the best June since 1938.

All I can say is that there are lots of other comparisons one can make with the late 1930s at the moment, and none of them are flattering. None of them suggest a Risk On stance is the right way to go either.

7. OIL ISSUES

Take a look at the world’s largest solar farm

(courtesy Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)

UAE Switches On World’s Largest Solar Farm

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

The United Arab Emirates have launched the largest single solar power farm in the world, the 1.18-GW Noor Abu Dhabi, Endgadget reports citing a tweet by the Abu Dhabi government.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

المكتب الإعلامي لحكومة أبوظبي

@admediaoffice

The world’s largest single solar plant, Noor Abu Dhabi, with a production capacity of nearly 1,177 MW commences commercial operation – a major milestone for the future of

The facility, which dwarfs the largest solar farm in the United States – the 569-MW Solar Star – is only comparable to solar parks, which combine several separate solar farms. It can supply electricity to 90,000 people, according to official information, from as many as 3.2 million solar panels. As a result, it would offset emissions amounting to 1 million metric tons, which is the equivalent of removing 200,000 cars from the road.

True to its reputation as being a large spender on various cutting-edge projects, the UAE is not stopping at Noor Abu Dhabi. Earlier this year, the Abu Dhabi Minister of Climate Change and Environment announced another, bigger, solar project. It would have a capacity of 2 GW, the official said without going into any further detail. The only project that would be bigger than this one, is Saudi Arabia’s 2.6-GW planned facility in Mecca.

 

While the Middle East is hardly the first location that springs to mind when one thinks about solar power and other renewable energy sources, the region has been changing, slowly but surely. The International Renewable Energy Agency released a report in February saying the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council alone had plans to install as much as 7 GW in renewable power generation capacity by the early 2020s.

An earlier report from IRENA said GCC could save some 354 million barrels of oil equivalent by switching to renewables for domestic consumption by 2030. That would constitute a 23-percent decline in domestic oil and gas consumption with more of the commodities going for exports: Saudi Arabia is pursuing this strategy of reducing domestic consumption of fossil fuels with a view to boosting exports.

Among the members of the GCC, the UAE is by far the best performer: it is home to almost 79 percent of the total installed solar capacity in the group. It even boasts renewable energy projects that do not require subsidies to be competitive.

 

end

The economy is in a severe downturn and there is a glut of oil out there.  OPEC fails to get a bigger production cut and thus down goes oil

(courtesy zerohedge)

OPEC Fail: Oil Prices Plunge Despite Production-Cut Deal

As OPEC+ proudly announces it is extending its production cuts into 2020 (while desperately talking down US shale production), in a last-ditch attempt to support prices, the slew of dismal manufacturing data in the last 24 hours has sparked selling in oil.

“Although a truce has been called between U.S. and China, global manufacturing is in a very bad shape,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates Ltd.

WTI is back below $58, erasing all post trade-truce and OPEC-deal gains…

As global manufacturing appears to enter a recession…

And US shale production continues to rise…

As Bloomberg notes, the OPEC pact leaves the door open for U.S. shale producers to grab more market share, as the group will have to cut deeper to achieve inventory targets, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The decision creates a clearer downside risk to the bank’s forecast for Brent to average $60 a barrel next year, even though it could result in some shorter-term price spikes.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

ZIMBABWE

Zimbabwe stops issuing passports because they cannot pay the printer that makes them. The country is basically short of everything

(courtesy zerohedge)

Zimbabwe Stops Issuing Passports As Cash Shortage Hits Crisis Levels

According to Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa, the reintroduction of the Zimbabwean dollar (which was officially abandoned a decade ago), the banning of the use of other international currencies, and the resulting hyperinflation (analysts are already forecasting a 100% inflation rate for 2019) are simply important steps to “restoring normalcy to our economy.”

But as anybody who has lived in, or visited, Zimbabwe over the past couple of decades, “normal” isn’t exactly a high bar. Considering that, under ex-leader Robert Mugabe, the Zim dollar once depreciated to 35 quadrillion per $1 (transforming the wheelbarrow into an essential tool for facilitating routine, every-day transactions like buying groceries), we’d think Zimbabweans are looking for something different, rather than a return to the country’s insanely dysfunctional status quo.

Wheel

One economist last week tagged Zimbabwe’s present real rate of inflation at nearly 500%, as Zimbabwe’s economy slides back into crisis and its currency rapidly depreciates against the dollar.

Zim

Of course, Mnangagwa’s decision to revive the hated Zim dollar might be more pragmatic than it first appears: After all, South Africa banks had largely cut Zim off from the country’s most stable supply of American dollars (the de facto currency of choice for Zimbabweans hoping to protect their wealth), so Mnangagwa’s decision to ‘ban’ the greenback might be the political equivalent of shouting ‘you can’t fire me because I quit!’ at a former employer.

But regardless of the government’s motives, this doesn’t change the fact that Zimbabweans have been struggling with shortages of cash, fuel and electricity for months. And now, the country’s ‘everything shortage’ is impacting the hopes and dreams of any Zimbabwean who still harbors hopes of leaving Zimbabwe.

Zim

That’s right: Zimbabwe’s government is so broke, the company that prints its passports is refusing to supply any new booklets until the government has taken care of its debts.

Here’s more from Bloomberg:

Now, even passports are almost impossible to get.

Tendai Mpofu applied for new passports for his sons more than two months ago. Their current ones expire this month, just when they’re due to travel to South Africa for a school sports event. It may be a long wait before they get new documents.

With inflation at almost 100% and an acute lack of foreign currency, Zimbabwe is facing its worst economic crisis in more than a decade. While President Emmerson Mnangagwa has said that the passport company is refusing to print anything until the government has cleared its debts, others say Zimbabwe is simply too broke to import the ink and paper needed.

And it’s not only passports that are in short supply: The government is also running out of the cheap plastic it uses to print ID cards.

An official at the passport office said the situation is “dire” and passports were only being issued for emergencies.Identity cards are also hard to come by – metal cards were replaced with plastic ones but now plastic is in short supply.

No need to panic, though – the government has the (admittedly dire) situation under control.

Home Affairs Minister Cain Mathema told the state-run Herald newspaper recently that things will improve and that the government was “working on it.”

ene

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1299 UP .0013 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.26 DOWN 0.120 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2628   DOWN   0.0016  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3122 DOWN .0013 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 13 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1299 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 0.96 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 332.94 POINTS OR 1.13%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,14%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN  

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 332.94 POINTS OR 1.17%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.96 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 14% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 24.90  POINTS OR 0.11%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1393.00

silver:$15.17-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.01% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.54 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 96.75 DOWN 10 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.36% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.15%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.29%// DOWN 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.84 DOWN 13 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 155 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.29% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.21% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1309  UP     .0023 or 23 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.85 DOWN .528 OR YEN UP 53  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2615 DOWN .0029 POUND DOWN 29  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 26 basis points to 1.3108

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8716    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8850  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6539 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.15%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.98 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.51 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.64 DOWN 20  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 61.69 OR  0.82%

German DAX :  CLOSED UP 5.34 POINTS OR .04%

 

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 8.91 POINTS 0.10%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 16.90 POINTS or 0.18%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 138.83 POINTS OR 0.45%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.14 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.30 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.26  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.39 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 39 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.37 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.47//

 

 

BRENT :  62.70

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.98…   VERY DEADLY//

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.51..VERY DEADLY/

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1290 ( UP 3   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.88 DOWN .448 (YEN UP 45 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.71 DOWN 13 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2602 DOWN 42  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6586

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.32   DOWN 0.45 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 45 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3109 UP 26 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8716  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8883 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.37%

 

The Dow closed  UP 67.25 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 31.69 POINTS OR 0.41%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.98 CLOSED DOWN 1.08

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.332%//libor dropping like a stone

 

 

 

FROM 2.320

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//

Gold Soars Most In 8 Months As Copper & Crude Collapse

Stocks and bond yields sink on a trade truce, oil tanks on an OPEC deal, and AUD spikes on a RBA rate cut…

Chinese stocks went nowhere overnight…

 

 

European markets slipped early on the tariff headlines but recovered by their close…

 

 

Major decoupling between Small Caps and Trannies and the rest of the market today (the latter barely unchanged as the former tank). Nasdaq outperformed as markets rallied in the last hour mysteriously just as they did yesterday…

 

As the short-squeeze ammo appears to have run out…

 

Any equity gains were dominated by a bid for defensives…

 

VIX was monkey-hammered lower to a 12 handle, driving stocks up…

 

Stocks and Bond yields decoupled…

 

Treasury yields tanked today leaving all but 2Y now lower since the hype of the trade-truce…

 

10Y Yields tumbled back below 2.00% again…and held there…

 

Pushing 10Y Yields to the lowest close since Nov 2016…

 

 

Market expectations for July remain at 80% for 25bps cut and 20% for 50bps cut…

 

 

 

Stocks decoupled from FX carry today…

 

Cryptos staged a big recovery today after another ugly night…

 

Bitcoin ripped back above $10,000 after toying with it for 24 hours (up $1200 from today’s lows)…

 

PMs outperformed notably as copper and crude extended their losses…

 

Gold surged back above $1400, erasing the trade-truce losses…Gold’s best day since Oct 2018 (on the heels of Lagarde as ECB head?)

 

While silver rallied on the day, it continues to underperform…

 

Stocks and oil prices decoupled today…

 

WTI dumped on the day, despite OPEC+ production cut agreements…

 

WTI tested the trendline and failed…

 

Copper and Stocks decoupled

 

Finally, the jaws of death widen further…

end

 

i) Market trading/

 

MARKET TRADING/LATE MORNING
As promised, all of the globe’s 10 and 30 yr yields are going to drop.  Now the 10 yr just dropped below 2.00 to 1.98%
(zerohedge)

10Y Treasury Yield Plunges Below 2.00%

And just like that, the growthiness-hype from a truce in the trade-war is gone…

10Y back below 2.00%, below Friday’s closing yield…

The entire curve is now lower in yield on the week (i.e. despite the trade truce)

 

As oil prices plunge…

And the jaws of death continue to widen…

Gluskin-Sheff’s David Rosenberg sums things up…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

Short-lived market response to the G-20 hug and kiss moment. Steve Bannon wasn’t wrong when he said this is bigger than the Cold War. Meanwhile, the global PMI is below 50 and down to a seven-year low. No catalyst in sight for a reversal, either.

LATE AFTERNOON

Stocks & Bond Yields Are Tumbling; Traders Suggest Pence/Putin Anxiety?

 

ii)Market data/

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

This is totally nuts…Nike;s endorser Kaepernick complains to Nike that its new shows showing the original Betsy Ross flag with 13 colonies is offensive to him because it symbolizes slavery????. China is upset at Nike because the Japanese designer supports the Hong Kong protests.

The world is going totally bonkers

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Arizona Blocks Nike After Kaepernick-Complaint Sparks Virtue-Signaling Sneaker Ban

Just a week after Nike appeared to bow to Chinese authorities’ demands, halting the sale of a range of sports shoes in China after its Japanese designer showed support for Hong Kong protests in an Instagram post; the sportswear company has been implicitly banned from Arizona after nixing the launch of its “Betsy Ross Flag” sneakers after former football player Colin Kaepernick complained.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the sneaker giant created the Air Max 1 USA in celebration of the July Fourth holiday,and it was slated to go on sale this week.

The heel of the shoe featured a U.S. flag with 13 white stars in a circle, a design created during the American Revolution and commonly referred to as the Betsy Ross flag.

After shipping the shoes to retailers, Nike asked for them to be returned without explaining why, the people said. The shoes aren’t available on Nike’s own apps and websites.

“Nike has chosen not to release the Air Max 1 Quick Strike Fourth of July as it featured the old version of the American flag,” a Nike spokeswoman said.

After images of the shoe were posted online, Mr. Kaepernick, a Nike endorser, reached out to company officials saying that he and others felt the Betsy Ross flag is an offensive symbol because of its connection to an era of slavery, the people said.

Some users on social media responded to posts about the shoe with similar concerns. Mr. Kaepernick declined to comment.

And it appears Nike’s virtue-signaling has already had serious consequencesas Arizona Governor Doug Ducey unleashed an angry tweet-storm, pulling financial support for the sports megalith.

Today was supposed to be a good day in Arizona, with the announcement of a major @Nike investment in Goodyear, AZ.

[Nike was expected to build a new multimillion-dollar plant in the Phoenix suburb of Goodyear. The facility would employ more than 500 workers within five years of opening, according to a report in the Arizona Republic.]

And then this news broke yesterday afternoon.

Words cannot express my disappointment at this terrible decision. I am embarrassed for Nike.

Nike is an iconic American brand and American company. This country, our system of government and free enterprise have allowed them to prosper and flourish.

Instead of celebrating American history the week of our nation’s independence, Nike has apparently decided that Betsy Ross is unworthy, and has bowed to the current onslaught of political correctness and historical revisionism.

It is a shameful retreat for the company. American businesses should be proud of our country’s history, not abandoning it.

Nike has made its decision, and now we’re making ours. I’ve ordered the Arizona Commerce Authority to withdraw all financial incentive dollars under their discretion that the State was providing for the company to locate here.

Arizona’s economy is doing just fine without Nike. We don’t need to suck up to companies that consciously denigrate our nation’s history.

And finally, it shouldn’t take a controversy over a shoe for our kids to know who Betsy Ross is. A founding mother. Her story should be taught in all American schools. In the meantime, it’s worth googling her.

So, it’s clear that Nike’s “foreign policy” means ignoring ‘the resistance’ in Hong Kong (cow-towing to the totalitarian Chinese government who control access to all those middle-class Chinese citizens for Nike) but cowtow to ‘the resistance’ in America in a virtue-signaling extravaganza.

But, there is a silver lining as WSJ notes that at least some of the USA-themed shoes have already made their way to sneaker enthusiasts. Versions of the Air Max 1 USA were changing hands on sneaker-reselling site StockX for as much as $2,500 this morning, according to the site.

 

end

 

This looks a bit ominous:  Mike Pence is recalled to the White House for an “unknown situation”

(courtesy zerohedge)

VP Pence Recalled To White House For “Unknown Situation”; Airforce 2 Diverted

Update: The Office of the VP has clarified that Pence wasn’t recalled to Washington for an “emergency”, but to deal with an undisclosed “situation.”

Kevin Landrigan@KlandriganUL

Office of @VP say NH event cancelled “not for emergency” but unknown reason for “diversion” back to DC.

Kevin Landrigan@KlandriganUL

Staff of @VP announce Vice President Mike Pence called back to Washington cancels NH trip, was a “situation” that required Air Force 2 to return to DC.

Though the language is less ominous, but only slightly.

A crowd of roughly 200 had shown up to the Granite Recovery Center in Salem, NH to hear Pence speak about the opioid crisis, but they are now leaving now that the event has been cancelled.

* * *

Vice President Mike Pence has been called back to the White House on Tuesday because of an undisclosed “emergency,” NBC 10 Bostonreports.

Pence had been scheduled to land in Manchester around 11:25 am, but instead, just before he was due to land, news broke that his event had been cancelled and that he would be heading back to Washington instead of making an appearance in New Hampshire to discuss the opioid crisis.

Stephanie Myers

@_StephanieMyers

Happening Today:
@VP Mike Pence will travel to New Hampshire to meet with former patients and alumni at the Granite Recovery Center HQ before delivering remarks about the opioid crisis

Air Force 2 was reportedly diverted due to the emergency. No further information was immediately available.

Whatever the emergency, it can’t be good.

END

 

 

 

SWAMP STORIES

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

The big negative dynamic that hung over Wall Street on Monday: Wall Street is lowering the odds of Fed rate cuts for July and the coming months.

China and the US are negotiating trade; so the fantasy to cut rates in July due to trade concern is off the table.  The DJIA and S&P 500 Index hit all-time highs on Monday, another inducement to cut rates is inoperative.  The only foreseeable factor that could induce a Fed rate in July is an ugly NFP number.

Ergo, the June Employment Report on Friday is now one of the most important reports in years

Markit’s US June MFG PMI increased to 50.6 from 50.1, which was also expected.  The June ISM Mfg PMI fell to 51.7 from 52.1; 51 was expected.

A batch of negative global economic data was lost in the irrational exuberance of the US-China trade negotiation restart.

  • The Caixin China June Mfg PMI fell to 49.4 from 50.2; 50.1 exp.
  • June Japanese Vehicle Sales -0.9% m/m; +4.8% prior
  • Japan June Consumer Confidence 38.7 from 39.4; 39.2 exp.
  • South Korea June Exports -13.5% y/y; -13.6% y/y exp
  • South Korea June Imports -11.1% y/y; -9.6% exp.
  • Q2 Tankan Large Mfg Index 7 from 12; 9 exp.
  • Q2 Tankan Small Mfg Index -1 from 6; 2 exp.
  • Markit June EZ Mfg 47.6 from 47.8; 47.8 exp.
  • German June Mfg PMI 45 from 45.4; 45.4 exp.
  • Swiss June Mfg PMI 47.7 from 48.6; 49 exp.
  • Italy June Mfg PMI 47.7 from 48.6; 48.7 exp.
  • Spain June Mfg PMI 47.9 from 50.1; 49.5 exp., first contraction in 5.5 years

Other bad news on Monday: More rioting in Hong Kong and Iran’s announcement that it has breached the limit set by a 2015 accord on its enriched uranium stockpile.

WaPo: Iran has breached the limit on its stockpile of enriched uranium set by the 2015 nuclear accord, state news agency reports

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/un-inspectors-to-verify-whether-iran-has-breached-nuclear-deal-stockpile-limit/2019/07/01/3c3d4a7e-9bf0-11e9-9ed4-c9089972ad5a_story.html

@OANN: Protesters flood into Hong Kong’s legislative building after breaking their way through entrances in an escalation of efforts to force the government to withdraw a controversial extradition

@WSJ: Nike is yanking a sneaker featuring the “Betsy Ross flag” after Colin Kaepernick said he and others consider the symbol to be offensive (racist) [Is Nike okay with Colin wearing police as pigs socks?]   https://www.wsj.com/articles/nike-nixes-betsy-ross-flag-sneaker-after-colin-kaepernick-intervenes-11562024126?shareToken=st8568e7e2e6ea4e9c939c04332182f785

U.S. Proposes Adding More Tariffs to $4B of EU Goods – The U.S. and EU have been accusing each other of illegally subsidizing their main aircraft makers… The list of goods includes cheese, milk, coffee, certain metal products including copper, Irish and Scotch whiskies and pork products…  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-01/u-s-proposes-adding-more-tariffs-to-4b-of-eu-goods

Today – Monday was a disappointing day for stock bulls.  The DJIA and S&P 500 Index made all-time highs and then declined until the last hour of trading.  The Street is reluctantly realizing that the July rate cut is in jeopardy and the four rate cuts in 2019 are a delusion.

Traders will worry that stocks need to fill the up gap from early trading on the NYSE.  ESUs filled all but 2.50 from the Sunday night gap.  Traders will buy dips for the pre-4th of July upward seasonal bias.

ESUs fell to -8.00 on the US tariff threat on the EU.  They are +2.25 at 21:45 ET because everyone knows that ESUs rally during overnight trading.

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2882; 100-day MA: 2849; 150-day MA: 2770; 200-day MA: 2778

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,044; 100-day MA: 25,963; 150-day MA: 25,380; 200-day MA: 25,466

S&P 500 Index support: 2952, 2939, 2929, 2913, 2905, 2900, 2887, 2877-80, 2870, 2853

Resistance: 2946, 2955-58, 2965, 2977-80, 2990, 3000, 3016

Expected economic data: Wards June Total Vehicle Sales 17.0m; NY Fed Prez Williams 6:35 ET, Cleveland Fed Prez Mester (leans hawkish) 11:00 ET (No other Fed official appearances this week)

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal

Weekly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 2978.05 triggers a buy signal

Daily: Trender and MACD are positive -a close below 2895.12 triggers a sell signal

Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2930.93 triggers a sell signal

CNN political director @DavidChalian: CNN/SSRS national poll:

Biden        22% (-10)

Harris       17% (+9)

Warren       15% (+8)

Sanders      14% (-4)

Buttigieg     4% (-1)

New York City Quietly Conducted an EBOLA DRILL Shortly before Congo Migrant Surge

New York City partnered with New York State to carry out an Ebola outbreak drill in April 2019…

    “Given the current outbreak of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is the second largest Ebola outbreak in history with over 1,100 confirmed cases and 700 deaths, it is critical that the healthcare system is prepared to handle an actual case of Ebola or other infectious disease threat…”

https://bigleaguepolitics.com/new-york-city-quietly-conducted-an-ebola-drill-shortly-before-congo-migrant-surge/

The MSM, some Dems and NeverTrumpers like Romney and Rubio embraced Antifa due to their opposition to Trump and conservatives.  Now, they are mum on Antifa violence.  In fact, some media members are justifying the attack on Andy Ngo in Portland due to his conservative beliefs.

FBI Investigating Antifa for Plotting to Buy Guns from Cartel for ‘Armed Rebellion’

https://dailycaller.com/2019/04/29/fbi-antifa-plot-armed-rebellion-cartel/

@EricRWeinstein: “A contributor to the WSJ was attacked on video by ANTIFA demonstrators where police were backed away. He was hospitalized with suspected brain injury after caustic chemicals were allegedly thrown at his face disguised by domestic terrorists as a milkshake.”  Where is this story?

Ted Cruz seeks federal action against Portland mayor after Antifa attacks journalist.

“To federal law enforcement: investigate & bring legal action against a Mayor who has, for political reasons, ordered his police officers to let citizens be attacked by domestic terrorists,”…

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jun/30/ted-cruz-seeks-probe-ted-wheeler-portland-antifa-a/

US Ambassador to Germany @RichardGrenell: I have asked @TheJusticeDept to investigate this incident in Portland. I can’t just sit by and watch my friend be brutally attacked…  This was a pre-meditated attack on someone because intolerant radicals don’t like that Andy happens to be gay, Asian and conservative. They targeted him publicly before their protest.  Mayor @tedwheeler knew this was coming. The people of Oregon must speak up today… Slate reporter justifies attacks on gay Asian because he’s conservative. He has a brain bleed. Where are the adults at @Slate? All violence must be condemned.

OAN’s @JackPosobiec: I can understand why the corporate press isn’t outraged by the Andy Ngo assault [by Antifa], I mean it’s not like it was something really serious like a white Catholic boy smirking

Byron York: Anti-Trump fever takes threatening turn

The toxicity of the resistance to President Trump has risen in recent days, with the nation’s most respected newspapers publishing rationalizations for denying Trump supporters public accommodation and for doxxing career federal employees, while a journalist found himself under physical attack from the so-called anti-fascist group Antifa, which has stepped up its violent activities since Trump’s election… And all from people who congratulate themselves for standing against hate…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/byron-york-anti-trump-fever-takes-threatening-turn

Ali Alexander @ali: White Meghan McCain is calling me a racist now. I worked for her fatheragainst Barack Obama, in 2008.  This is disgusting.

@OANN: Mexico’s president says he supports abolishing the nation’s army: “I would get rid of the army and turn it into the national guard, declare Mexico a pacifist country that does not need a military and the defense of the nation, if necessary, would be done by all.”

Freak hailstorm hits Guadalajara, Mexico, swallowing buildings and cars [Europe had record heat]

https://abc7.com/weather/what-the-hail-freak-hailstorm-hits-mexico/5372900/

Well that about does it for tonight

I will see you on probably THURSDAY MORNING

UNTIL NEXT WEEK, MY COMMENTARIES WILL BE SPORADIC BUT I WILL TRY AND GET THE COMEX DATA TO YOU

 

H

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