JULY 18/FED’S WILLIAMS SIGNALS THAT THE FED MUST ACT QUICKLY TO LOWER RATES: SENDS GOLD UP DRAMATICALLY IN THE ACCESS MARKET/ GOLD UP $5.55 COMEX TO COMEX / THEN UP ANOTHER 20 DOLLARS IN THE ACCESS MARKET//SILVER UP 24 CENTS COMEX TO COMEX AND THEN ANOTHER 14 CENTS IN THE ACCESS MARKET//CHINA USA TRADE TALKS STALLED//THREE BIG IRANIAN STORIES FOR YOU TO GLEAN OVER///SWAMP AND EPSTEIN STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD: $1426.80  UP  $5.55 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

Silver:  $16.17 UP 24 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1446.00

 

silver:  $16.33

 

 

This news spooked the dollar this afternoon…  (Harvey: ZLB= zero lower bound) as well as causing both gold and silver to continue on their northerly direction.

Fed’s wisest strategy is to cut interest rates at first sign of economic distress, Williams says

July 18, 2019 2:20 p.m. ET

Fed’s Williams hints at more aggressive rate cuts: ‘Better to take preventative measures’

Fed’s Williams: ‘Act quickly’ to lower rates during ‘economic distress’

Central bankers need to act quickly and forcefully when rates are low and economic growth is slowing, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said Thursday.

The influential policymaker delivered a speech discussing what should be done when central banks are near the “zero lower bound,” or close to as low as rates can go.

“It’s better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold,” he told the annual meeting of the Central Bank Research Association.

Rather than keep rates elevated to give central banks room to cut in the face of a crisis, Williams said the proper move is not to “keep your powder dry.”

“When the ZLB is nowhere in view, one can afford to move slowly and take a ‘wait and see’ approach to gain additional clarity about potentially adverse economic developments. But not when interest rates are in the vicinity of the ZLB,” he said in prepared remarks. “In that case, you want to do the opposite, and vaccinate against further ills. When you only have so much stimulus at your disposal, it pays to act quickly to lower rates at the first sign of economic distress.”

Williams spoke as the policy making Federal Open Market Committee is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate during the July 30-31 meeting. Officials are worried about persistently low inflation, spillover from a global slowdown and the fallout from back-and-forth tariffs between the U.S. and China.

The Fed currently pegs the overnight funds rate in a range between 2.25% and 2.5% — above zero, but still well below normal levels that have prevailed during past economic expansions.

Williams did not directly address whether he favors a cut, though markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a quarter-point reduction and a 38% probability that the Fed might cut by half a point, according to the CME.

However, he said that when faced with low rates and slowing growth, the best strategy is to “take swift action” and “keep interest rates lower for longer.”

“The expectation of lower interest rates in the future lowers yields on bonds and thereby fosters more favorable financial conditions overall. This will allow the stimulus to pick up steam, support economic growth over the medium term, and allow inflation to rise,” he said.

end

 

YOUR DATA…

 

COMEX DATA

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 1/6

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 07/17/2019 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 07/17/2019
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 21:19:31
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,421.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/17/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 07/19/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 1
690 C ABN AMRO 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 5
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 6 6
MONTH TO DATE: 870

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 6 NOTICE(S) FOR 600 OZ (0.2674 tonnes

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  870 NOTICES FOR 87000 OZ  (2.706 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

147 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 735,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3933 for   19,665,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9870 UP 109 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10640 UP 823

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 3895 CONTRACTS FROM 229,465 UP TO 233,360 WITH THE 29 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 3342 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3342 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3342 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3342 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.71 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 29 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

20.935 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY

 

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT WITH ZERO SUCCESS..AND ZERO SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY:

20,537 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 20,537 CONTRACTS) OR 102.685 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1579 CONTRACTS OR 7.898 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY:  102.685 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 14.66% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1260.29   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3895, WITH THE 29 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3342 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED: 7237 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 3342 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 3895  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 29 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.93 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.171 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 167% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 147 NOTICE(S) FOR 735,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 20.935 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 19,221 CONTRACTS, TO 621,121 ACCOMPANYING THE  $11.35 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED FOR GOLD….

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7602 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 7602 CONTRACTS, DEC>  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 621,121,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 26,823 CONTRACTS: 19,221 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7602 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 26,823 CONTRACTS OR 2,682,300 OZ OR 83.43 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $11.35 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT GOOD GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 83.43  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.

 

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE WILL WITNESS THE MORPHING OF OUR SPREADERS OUT OF SILVER AND INTO GOLD AS THE JULY MONTH PROCEEDS INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST. 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 102,527 CONTRACTS OR 10,252,700 oz OR 318,90 TONNES (13 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 7886 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 318.90 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 318.90/3550 x 100% TONNES =8.97% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3245.72  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 19,221 WITH THE STRONG PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($11.35)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7602 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7602 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 26,823 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7602 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 19,221 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 83.43 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED ACCOMPANYING THE  GAIN IN PRICE OF $11.35 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAS NOW COMMENCED WITH SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD AS  THE MONTH PROCEEDS/

 

 

 

we had:  6 notice(s) filed upon for 600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY//

 

A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81  TONNES

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:

 

ANOTHER BIG  CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SILVER SLV:

A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 3895 CONTRACTS from 229,465 UP TO 233,360 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN GOLD AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN SILVER

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JULY: 0 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 3342  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3342 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 3895  CONTRACTS TO THE 3342 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 7237 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 36.19 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 20.935 MILLION OZ STANDING SO FAR.

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 29 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 3342 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 422.94 POINTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8807 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8807 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8834 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

South Korea unexpectedly undergoes a rate cut and that sends Asian stocks down and not up.  The fear of course is  that the global economy is seizing up

(zerohedge)

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Shock in Japan as an arson attack on a Japanese animation studio leaves 33 dead and many injured..some critically

(zerohedge)

3 China/Chinese affairs

i) China/USA

We are basically back to December when the two sides had the deal talks stalled.  It seems that the Chinese are very much against structural changes.

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)EU

Purchases of cars in Europe are well down as we witness EU car registration crater from June

(zerohedge)

ii)UK

The huge Woodford Fund suspended redemptions last month and now he is being forced to some unlisted liquidations.  Big problems here, as this is England` s no 1 fund.
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Iran

Not sure if this is the same tanker seized on Saturday or is this a new one,,Iran seizes the foreign tanker because of smuggling`.  This is getting very tense as Iran has promised to get even with the West after they seized an Iranian vessel around Gibralter last week.

(zerohedge)

i b) IRAN/USA

Iran makes a substantive move by offering to formally and permanently accept enhanced inspections of its nuclear program in return to drop the sanctions. Trump however wants more i.e. stop enriching their nuclear program and stop supporting their proxies in the middle east.

It is however a good start as Iran is bleeding to death.

(zerohedge)

i c)Iran/USA

Then late this afternoon:
USA Navy shoots down Iranian drone over the Strait of Hormuz after it came within 1000 yds of the ship
(zerohedge)

ii)Turkey  …USA

Trump officially kicks Turkey out of the F 35 program over its purchase of Russian S 400

(zerohedge)

ii b Turkey..USA

The big fear:  Turkish forces comes in contact with USA forces in Idlib province

(zerohedge)

iii)Saudi Arabia…USA

Trump sends an additional 500 troops to Saudi Arabia as conditions inside the middle east are heating up

(zerohedge)

iv)RUSSIA..EU.. INSTEX

A major threat to USA hegemony: Russia offers to join the European SWIFT bypass known as Instex
(zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDONESIA

This is sending shockwaves throughout the emerging markets and it is the first casualty of the USA/China trade war.  Indonesia’s Duniatex Group a large textile operation is having great difficulty finding dollars.  Its bond’s fell by a huge 6 notches to CCC with that significant liquidity challenge

(zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Bloomberg`s Bosley describes the dilemma in Europe right now:  They introduced negative rates 5 years ago and now they cannot find a way out

(Bloomberg…Bosley ..GATA)

ii)The IMF has now commented that it believes that the dollar is 6% to 12% overvalued much to the glee of Trump as he wants to see a lower dollar help with trade.

(IMF…GATA..Reuters)

iii)An excellent commentary from Stefan Gleason on the meaning of sound money

( Stefan Gleason)

iv)Here is how the USA may weaken the dollar through intervention

(Market Watch..Watts ..GATA)

10. USA MARKETS

 

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

II)MARKET TRADING/USA

 

 

ii)Market data/USA

a)Philly Fed, a soft data entry soars to a 12 th month.  And let me get this straight;  THE FED IS GOING TO LOWER RATES?

(zerohedge)

b)Conference Board`s leading indicators (soft data) tumbled .3% in June.  This is a very reliable figure as to where we are heading

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Brandon Smith, an extremely bright fellow is of the view that the USA may not cut rates next week.  He believes that the fight with the Fed is nothing but a scripted farce..He explains why!|

(Brandon Smith)

b)The Pentagon now sends another 2100 troops to its southern border

(zerohedge)

c)Another derivative players sees its banking and fixed income revenue plummet(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries

i)Epstein lies about his Austrian passport

(zerohedge)

ii)Omar and trump at war with each other

(zerohedge)

iii) A must read as to what to expect next week on the Mueller Circus testimony before Congress

(Meijer)

d)A joke:

Progressives who still want a minimum wage bill is threatening to kill the bill over overtures to the Republicans
(zerohedge)

e)Epstein a danger to all and thus Judge Berman denied bail. He will remain in a tiny cell until his hearing

zerohedge)

f)Fasten you seat belt on this one:  All of Epstein`s associates are preparing for the worst as a massive document dump is imminent(zerohedge)

g)There will be no new charges to Trump or anybody else in the “hush money” probe. As we had outlined to you previously that there would no charges brought onto Trump on this matter

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 19,221 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 621,121 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN OF $11.35 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7602EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 7602 CONTRACTS: DEC: 0   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7602 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 26,823 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7602 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 19,221 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  26,823 CONTRACTS OR 2,682,300 OZ OR 83.43 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON  active contract month of JULY and here the open interest stands at 16 CONTRACTS as we LOST 1 contract.  We had 6 notices filed yesterday so we surprisingly  gained 5 contracts or 500 oz of gold that will stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the comex  as they will now try their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here. We usually witness queue jumping in silver immediately after first day notice but not gold.  We again witness queue jumping in the comex gold arena. The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI ROSE by a 5971 contracts UP to 323,749. The next non active month is September and here the OI rose by 106 contracts up to 779.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI rose by 612 contracts up to 22,479.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  600 OZ. (0.0590 TONNES)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3895 CONTRACTS FROM 229,465 UP TO 233,360 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 29 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.  HERE WE HAVE 404 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 10 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 23 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 13 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 65,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. AFTER JULY WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST AND HERE WE LOST 2 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1148.  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 3774 CONTRACTS UP TO 163,749 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 147 notice(s) filed for 735,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 423,426  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  393,964  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JULY/GOLD

JULY 18/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 201.07 oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
6 notice(s)
 600 OZ
(0.0186 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
10 contracts
(1000 oz)
0.0311 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
870 notices
87000 OZ
2.706 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Delaware: 201.07  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 201.07  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ a tiny amount  arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JULY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 6 contract(s) of which 1 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (870) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY. (16 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz per contract) equals 88,000 OZ OR 2.737 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JULY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (870 x 100 oz)  + (16)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz )which equals 88,000 oz standing OR 2.737 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JULY.

We GAINED 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.0438 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 2.737  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  322,825.827 oz or  10.0412 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,747,101.599 oz 240.96 tonnes

IN THE LAST 33 MONTHS 115 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
JULY 18 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,134,863.019 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
147
CONTRACT(S)
(115,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
257 contracts
 1,285,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3933 contracts

18,665,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

oz

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  3 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT:  597,997.600 oz

iii) Into Delaware: 7053.119 oz

iv) Into Scotia: 529,812.300 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1134,863.019  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  1013.07 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 300,582.67 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 301,895.740  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 517,608.700 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  93.110 million

total dealer + customer silver:  307.430 million oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 147 notice(s) filed for 735,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2019. contract month is represented by 23 contract(s) FOR 115,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3933 x 5,000 oz = 19,665,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY. (404) and the number of notices served upon today (147 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 3933 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (404) number of notices served upon today (147)x 5000 oz equals 20,950,000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.

WE GAINED 13 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 65,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS. 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 147 notice(s) filed for 735,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  134,555 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 118,180 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 118180 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 590 million  OZ 84.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.83.% ((JULY 18/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.30% to NAV (JULY 18/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.83%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.32 TRADING 13.77/DISCOUNT 3.83

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: ANOTHER 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD REMOVED AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD AT THE COMEX/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.61 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JULY 18/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 803.18 tonnes

*IN LAST 626 TRADING DAYS: 131.58 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 526 TRADING DAYS: A NET 34.10 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.575 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/2019:

 

 

Inventory 343.704 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.24/ and libor 6 month duration 2.20

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .04

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.21%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.22

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

 

 

end

i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

Ray Dalio Warns A “New Paradigm” Is Coming: “Buy Gold, Sell Stocks”

Ray Dalio the American billionaire investor, hedge fund manager, and founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds believes that it is “both risk-reducing and return-enhancing to consider adding gold to one’s portfolio.”

In an article written in LinkedIn today, Dalio highlights the following 4 key developments that are likely to cause a massive financial paradigm shift with implications for all savers and investors

1. Central banks have been lowering interest rates and doing quantitative easing (i.e., printing money and buying financial assets) in ways that are unsustainable. At the same time, central banks doing more of this printing and buying of assets will produce more negative real and nominal returns that will lead investors to increasingly prefer alternative forms of money (e.g., gold) or other storeholds of wealth.

2. There has been a wave of stock buybacks, mergers, acquisitions, and private equity and venture capital investing that has been funded by both cheap money and credit and the enormous amount of cash that was pushed into the system. That pushed up equities and other asset prices and drove down future returns. It has also made cash nearly worthless. (I will explain more about why that is and why it is unsustainable in a moment.) The gains in investment asset prices benefited those who have investment assets much more than those who don’t, which increased the wealth gap, which is creating political anti-capitalist sentiment and increasing pressure to shift more of the money printing into the hands of those who are not investors/capitalists.

3. Profit margins grew rapidly due to advances in automation and globalization that reduced the costs of labor It is unlikely that this rate of profit margin growth will be sustained, and there is a good possibility that margins will shrink in the environment ahead. Because this increased share of the pie going to capitalists was accomplished by a decreased share of the pie going to workers, it widened the wealth gap and is leading to increased talk of anti-corporate, pro-worker actions.

4. Corporate tax cuts made stocks worth more because they give more returns. The most recent cut was a one-off boost to stock prices. Such cuts won’t be sustained and there is a good chance they will be reversed, especially if the Democrats gain more power.
These were big tailwinds that have supported stock prices. The chart below shows our estimates of what would have happened to the S&P 500 if each of these unsustainable things didn’t happen.

Most people now believe the best “risky investments” will continue to be equity and equity-like investments, such as leveraged private equity, leveraged real estate, and venture capital, and this is especially true when central banks are reflating. As a result, the world is leveraged long, holding assets that have low real and nominal expected returns that are also providing historically low returns relative to cash returns (because of the enormous amount of money that has been pumped into the hands of investors by central banks and because of other economic forces that are making companies flush with cash). I think these are unlikely to be good real returning investments and that those that will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant, such as gold. Additionally, for reasons I will explain in the near future, most investors are underweighted in such assets, meaning that if they just wanted to have a better balanced portfolio to reduce risk, they would have more of this sort of asset. For this reason, I believe that it would be both risk-reducing and return-enhancing to consider adding gold to one’s portfolio. I will soon send out an explanation of why I believe that gold is an effective portfolio diversifier.

You can read the full article here on LinkedIn.com

Buy, Transfer & Store Gold and Silver in Zurich, Switzerland – Six Months Free Storage & Complimentary Silver Eagle – Info Here

News and Commentary


Gold Futures Climb to a Fresh Six-year High

Global Stocks Slide as U.S.-China Trade War Takes Toll on Earnings

Skybridge’s Gayeski Says Gold Is a ‘No Doubt’ Choice Over Treasuries
Paradigm Shifts

G7 Finance Chiefs Pour Cold Water on Facebook’s Digital Coin Plans

Currency Intervention: Here’s How the U.s. Could Move to Weaken the Dollar

LBMA Gold Prices (AM/ PM Fix – USD, GBP & EUR)

17-Jul-19 1400.80 1410.35, 1129.61 1135.61 & 1249.09 1256.90
16-Jul-19 1416.10 1409.85, 1136.85 1134.79 & 1260.05 1256.88
15-Jul-19 1416.25 1412.40, 1127.76 1127.24 & 1255.93 1253.79
12-Jul-19 1405.60 1407.60, 1122.23 1122.14 & 1248.74 1251.50
11-Jul-19 1423.10 1413.75, 1135.06 1126.62 & 1262.72 1255.83
10-Jul-19 1395.45 1408.30, 1117.34 1126.78 & 1243.35 1252.68
09-Jul-19 1387.90 1391.55, 1113.51 1115.61 & 1239.39 1241.54
08-Jul-19 1404.90 1400.10, 1121.11 1119.38 & 1251.20 1248.19
05-Jul-19 1414.40 1388.65, 1126.43 1110.92 & 1255.99 1237.70

Watch Video Here

Click here for GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

Receive Our Free Daily or Weekly Updates by Signing Up Here

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Bloomberg`s Bosley describes the dilemma in Europe right now:  They introduced negative rates 5 years ago and now they cannot find a way out

(Bloomberg…Bosley ..GATA)

Europe dove into negative rates and now can’t find a way out

 Section: 

By Catherine Bosley
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Europe’s unconventional experiment with negative interest rates to spur economic growth and inflation is looking like a trap.

Five years into what was supposed to have been a temporary shot in the arm for the euro area, the European Central Bank still hasn’t achieved its goals and may be about to push rates even lower. Japan, Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark have also stepped over the zero bound, once seen as the lower limit for monetary policy.

… 

With global economic growth slowing, negative rates are staying around. But the longer they persist, the louder the criticism grows. They’re blamed for weakening banks, expropriating savers, keeping dying companies on life support, and fueling an unsustainable surge in corporate debt and asset prices. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-17/europe-dived-into-neg…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

 

The IMF has now commented that it believes that the dollar is 6% to 12% overvalued much to the glee of Trump as he wants to see a lower dollar help with trade.

(IMF…GATA..Reuters)

IMF endorses dollar devaluation

 Section: 

IMF Sees Dangers from Trade Tensions, Overvalued Dollar

By Andrea Shalal
Reuters
Wednesday, July 17, 2019

WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday the U.S. dollar was overvalued by 6 to 12%, based on near-term economic fundamentals, while the euro, the Japanese yen, and China’s yuan were seen as broadly in line with fundamentals.

The IMF has been at odds with U.S. President Donald Trump over his use of tariffs to resolve trade imbalances, but its assessment that the dollar is overvalued is likely to give Trump more fodder for his frequent complaints that dollar strength is hampering U.S. exports.

… 

Trump has railed against European and Chinese policies that lead to what he calls a devaluation of the euro and other currencies against the dollar.

The Fund’s External Sector Report — an annual assessment of currencies and external surpluses and deficits of major economies — showed that current account surpluses remained centered in the euro area and other advanced economies such as Singapore, while deficits remained persistent in the United States, Britain and some emerging market economies. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imf-currencies/imf-sees-dangers-from-…

END

An excellent commentary from Stefan Gleason on the meaning of sound money

(courtesy Stefan Gleason)

Stefan Gleason: Sound money needs only for government to stop oppressing the competition

 Section: 

8:51p ET Wednesday, July 18, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Sound money doesn’t need formal restoration of the gold standard by governments, Money Metals Exchange President Stefan Gleason writes this week.

“Sound money has intrinsic value, is stable, is trusted, is fungible, and has widespread acceptance,” Gleason writes. “It need not necessarily be gold, although thousands of years of history have shown the yellow metal ably fills that role — even today.”

He continues: “Sound money proponents believe that artificially inflating certain sectors of the economy fosters waste and inefficiency — not to mention unfairness.

“We believe that markets become corrupted when they are driven by particular words or syllables contained in policy statements issued by a central bank. …

“Ideally, sound money would spring from market forces, with gold and silver warehouse receipts (and digital equivalents) from the most reputable private vaults and banks gaining acceptance as currency. …

“A modern sound money system won’t be established overnight. Steps toward it can be made through both free-market forces and political activism aimed at freeing precious metals from taxes, legal tender laws, and other impediments to free competition with the fiat dollar.”

That is, sound money requires only for government to stop oppressing the competition.

Gleason’s commentary is headlined “Monetary Metals Don’t Need a ‘Gold Standard’ Proxy System” and it’s posted at the Money Metals Exchange internet site here:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2019/07/17/gold-standard-proxy-system-0…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Here is how the USA may weaken the dollar through intervention

(Market Watch..Watts ..GATA)

Currency intervention: Here’s how the U.S. could move to weaken the dollar

 Section: 

 

By William Watts
MarketWatch.com, New York
Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Currency traders are contemplating the “I” word.

While still seen as a longshot — Goldman Sachs described it last week as a “low but rising risk” — a growing number of analysts are warning that President Donald Trump’s longstanding frustration with the U.S. dollar’s relative strength versus major rivals could eventually lead to U.S. government to intervene in the currency market in an effort to weaken the greenback.

… 

Last week, Bloomberg News reported that Trump has asked aides to look for ways to weaken the dollar and asked about the currency in job interviews with the candidates he’s selected for seats on the Federal Reserve’s board.

Here’s a guide to how intervention works and what it would mean for the market.

… What is intervention?

Intervention occurs when a central bank buys or sells its own currency in an effort to influence the exchange rate.

A government might take action to halt a precipitous slide or a sharp runup in its currency following a shock. It could also act in concert with or on behalf of other countries in an effort to stabilize a particular currency. In fact, the last time the U.S. intervened in the currency market was in March 2011, as part of a coordinated effort by the Group of Seven nations to arrest a surge in the Japanese yen following a devastating earthquake and tsunami.

Utilizing their massive reserves, central banks can get their way, at least in the short term. A credible threat — explicit or implied — to intervene around a certain level can often hold sway, particularly if underlying fundamentals and other factors stand in the central bank’s favor.

But even central banks can be overwhelmed by the market if fundamentals are out of line with goals. The Bank of England pulled out all the stops on “Black Wednesday” in 1992 in a futile effort to keep the British pound trading within the bands set by the European exchange rate mechanism, wasting billions of pounds of reserves.

… Why is intervention so rare?

Intervention is hardly novel. In fact, as the Goldman Sachs chart below illustrates, until around the mid-1990s, it was relatively common for the U.S. and other major developed countries to wade into markets in an effort to signal a desired exchange rate.

But unilateral intervention has long been out of favor, with the U.S. and other members of the Group of 20 in June reaffirming a previous commitment to refrain from competitive devaluations and to not target exchange rates for competitive purposes.

… How is it conducted?

According to the New York Fed, the foreign currencies used to intervene by the U.S. usually come equally from Federal Reserve holdings and the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund. Those holding consist of euros and Japanese yen.

The New York Fed’s trading desk does the buying and selling, often dealing simultaneously with several large interbank dealers in the spot market. The New York Fed, in a 2007 note, observed that it historically hasn’t engaged in the forward market or other derivative transactions.

The process is also meant to be transparent, the New York Fed says, with the U.S. Treasury secretary typically confirming the move while the Fed is conducting the operation or shortly thereafter. After all, authorities are attempting to send market participants a message, so there’s little incentive for them to cover their tracks.

… Who makes the call?

While the Fed is responsible for executing any FX intervention, dollar policy is traditionally the purview of the Treasury Department. The Treasury’s foreign-exchange decisions, however, have typically been taken in consultation with the Federal Reserve System.

There’s much speculation around whether the Fed would go along with a unilateral intervention effort. Powell, in congressional testimony last week, repeated that the Treasury Department is responsible for exchange rate policy. Goldman Sachs strategist Michael Cahill, noting the remark, said it seems likely the Fed “would probably defer to the Treasury and go along even if it does not agree.”

If the Fed were to stick to the sidelines, it would cast the effectiveness of any intervention effort into doubt, analysts said. The Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund has around just $22 billion in U.S. dollar — and another $51 billion in IMF Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, that could be converted — that it could tap, The Fed can use its balance sheet, giving it vastly more firepower though the Treasury and the central bank typically would go 50/50 in any intervention efforts.

END

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8807/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8834   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 422.94 POINTS OR 1.97%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.24/Euro FALLS TO 1.1219

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.13/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.21 and Brent: 64.13

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen PU CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.32%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.53% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.85: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.09

3k Gold at $1421.50 silver at: 16.13   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.85 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9875 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1077 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.32%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.05% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.57%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6988..

European Stocks, US Futures Rebound After ECB Said To Revamp Inflation Goal

Global stocks stumbled early in the session in the aftermath of the dismal Netflix earnings which saw the first drop in US subs following the company’s price hike (suggesting US consumers are far less price inelastic than many had suspected), and following a bevy of European earnings misses, but then staged a sharp rebound after a Bloomberg report that the ECB was seeking to imitate the Fed and was potential revamp of their inflation goal.

 

The news, which suggested that the ECB was set to ease even more than the market had priced in, slammed the EUR, sending the EURUSD to session lows just above 1.12…

 

… while Europe’s Stoxx 600 erased a drop of as much as 0.7%, trading little changed, with defensive sectors including health-care and utility shares among the best performers and tech shares remain biggest losers. The rebound was strongest in the export-heavy DAX, which sharply pared losses, narrowing its loss to 0.5% from as much as 1.4%.

 

According to Bloomberg, similar to the Fed’s own “symmetric” approach to inflation, the ECB was studying a potential revamp of its inflation goal, in a move that could “embolden policy makers to pursue monetary stimulus for longer. ” As the report noted, the staff are informally analyzing the institution’s policy approach, including the question of whether the current target of consumer-price growth “below, but close to, 2%” is still appropriate for the post-crisis era, which is ironic: after all, the ECB has been unable to hit 2% for years, and now the implication hopes to hit 3%

President Mario Draghi favors a “symmetrical” approach, meaning flexibility to be either above or below a specific 2% goal, the officials said, asking not to be identified as the work so far is confidential and preliminary. That would allow the ECB to keep inflation elevated for a while after a period of weakness to ensure price growth is entrenched.

Governing Council members were given a presentation last week on symmetrical approaches to the current target. Changing the goal itself would probably require a formal review, the officials said. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.

The ECB “trial balloon” promptly papered over several big earnings misses in Europe, most notably after SAP, Europe’s most valuable tech stock by market cap, reported poor results, with U.K. fashion retailer Asos and Nordea Bank also reporting poor earnings.

“We’re in a trade war, you’re seeing the impact on corporate earnings, you’re seeing the central banks forced to scramble to react to that,” Bob Michele, CIO of JPMorgan Asset Management told Bloomberg TV.

The weak start to the Q2 earnings season may spill over into the outlook for the remainder of the year, threatening equity markets’ stellar rally this year. “We are probably in the middle of analysts downgrading Q3 company earnings expectations,” said Sunil Krishnan, head of multi-asset funds at Aviva Investors.

Europe’s latest monetary boost – which is certain to infuriate Trump as it is another indication of just how the ECB manipulate the common currency by jawboning also helped push US futures off session lows and back to unchanged, despite yesterday’s shock report from Netflix which slammed the Nasdaq and pushed tech stocks sharply lower at least until Draghi’s verbal intervention.

 

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped for a third day, led by industrial and energy firms, as investors assessed trade tensions and the increasingly gloomy Q2 earnings season. Most markets in the region were down, with Japan and China leading declines. The Topix closed 2.1% lower, dragged by electronics makers and chemical firms, as Japanese exports fell for a seventh month, slumping 6.7% in June, while manufacturers’ confidence fell to a three-year low in July on the back of the trade tensions and slowing China growth.

 

Japan Export Value, Import Value, and Trade Balance

Canon dropped 4% following a Nikkei report that the company may cut its profit outlook. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1%, with Kweichow Moutai and PetroChina among the biggest drags. The liquor giant declined 1.7% after reporting its slowest first-half revenue growth since 2016. India’s Sensex retreated 0.4%, driven by Reliance Industries and Tata Consultancy Services. Yes Bank tumbled as much as 20% after the lender’s profit missed estimates amid rising bad loans.

In global macro, with less than two weeks before the Fed’s policy meeting at which investors expect an interest-rate cut, the central bank’s anecdotal Beige Book report yesterday suggested the outlook was far better than it was in April and the labor market remains tight, even as companies are still struggling to pass on higher wages and tariff-related costs to customers, keeping inflation subdued, and the start of earnings season hasn’t improved sentiment.

Additionally, after Korea’s recent GDP shock

GDP

… investors betting on rate cuts by the BOK were proven right on Thursday, as central banks in South Korea and Indonesia lowered benchmarks. Ironically, both countries’ currencies strengthened modestly and the Kospi slumped, suggesting the move was seen as a “policy error” by the market. That’s after similar moves by central banks in Malaysia, India and the Philippines.

Meanwhile, trade war sentiment worsened overnight after a WSJ report that progress toward a U.S.-China trade deal has stalled as the Trump administration works out how to address Beijing’s demands that it ease restrictions on Huawei Technologies.

“It’s still about the U.S. and China dispute,” Christophe Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities. “The trade war is creating uncertainty, weighed on capex, and clearly on trade flows. There are also problems with guidance, especially in the transportation sector. The fact is that one of the key stories of this year is global trade flows contraction,” he said.

In rates, Eurozone government bond yields slipped back toward record lows on Thursday as economic indicators and corporate earnings deepened gloom on the global economy and increased bets on interest-rate cuts by major central banks. 10Y Treasury yields moved within 1bp of 2.045%.

In FX, the euro was the big mover, sliding sharply lower just after 6am when the ECB inflation revamp report hit; the yen initially strengthened amid reports of fresh trade tensions between Japan and South Korea however it later gave up all gains thanks to the plunge in the Euro; Sterling was a shade higher at $1.244, off its lowest since April 2017 touched on Wednesday amid growing risks of Britain leaving the European Union in a no-deal Brexit. After trading lower, the dollar also spiked thanks to the plunge in the euro.

Oil prices were mixed, with WTI modestly lower after data showed U.S. stockpiles of gasoline and other products rising sharply last week, suggesting weak demand. Brent futures were up 6 cents, or 0.1%, at $63.71 a barrel.

Expected data include jobless claims and the Leading Index. Blackstone, Danaher, Honeywell, Morgan Stanley, Philip Morris, and Microsoft are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,981.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 385.64
  • MXAP down 0.8% to 159.11
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 526.13
  • Nikkei down 2% to 21,046.24
  • Topix down 2.1% to 1,534.27
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 28,461.66
  • Shanghai Composite down 1% to 2,901.18
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 39,042.90
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 6,649.12
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,066.55
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to -0.302%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1238
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 1.242%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 0.429%
  • Brent futures up 0.4% to $63.91/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,420.66
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 97.08

Top Headline News

  • Slow progress on key initial demands from Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is raising doubts about whether the U.S. and China will actually return to the negotiating table to overcome their much deeper differences. Reaching a comprehensive trade deal as Trump gears up for re-election next year increasingly seems like a remote possibility, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity
  • Group of Seven finance officials meeting near Paris confronted an outlook of slowing growth that has already prompted monetary authorities to shift stance and prepare for stimulus
  • Iran is capable of shutting the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial choke-point for oil flows — but doesn’t want to do it, the country’s foreign minister said
  • U.K. lawmakers are gearing up for a knife-edge vote on a measure to prevent the next prime minister suspending Parliament to pursue a no-deal Brexit. As pro-EU ministers weigh up how they will vote, the government’s fiscal watchdog published new forecasts of the economic damage a chaotic exit would bring
  • Boris Johnson, the favorite to succeed Theresa May as British prime minister, said a trade deal won’t be reached with the U.S. soon after Brexit, predicting discussions will be “tough” and “robust”

Asian equity markets traded negatively as the risk-averse tone rolled over from Wall St where all major indices declined for a 2nd consecutive day amid mixed earnings, in which the S&P 500 gave back the 3k level and with futures pressured after-market following disappointing Netflix results which missed on revenue, as well as global subscriber growth and posted its first ever decline in net US subscribers. ASX 200 (-0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (-2.0%) were lower in which the energy sector led the declines in Australia after further pressure in oil prices and reduced quarterly revenue from Santos and Woodside Petroleum, while the Japanese benchmark underperformed from a double whammy of a stronger currency and wider than expected decline in Exports. Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) were dragged lower by weakness in the blue-chip oil names and amid ongoing trade uncertainty with US-China talks said to have stalled as the Trump administration determines how to respond to Beijing’s demands of easing restrictions on Huawei. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as they tracked the upside in T-notes with prices underpinned by safe-haven demand and following a continued decline in exports.

Top Asian News

  • Japan LNG Imports Hit Post-Fukushima Low as Reactors Restart
  • China Investor Beating 98% of Peers Bets on Hong Kong Stocks
  • SoftBank’s Son Shines a Spotlight on His Vision Fund Proteges
  • Indonesia Pledges More Rate Cuts as It Moves to Spur Growth

Major European bourses are now mixed after the region pared opening losses [Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%] amid reports ECB staff are looking at a revision to the inflation target.. Sectors are mixed with heavy underperformance in the IT sector (-1.4%) as EU’s largest tech stock SAP (-6.0%) posted disappointing earnings in which all major metrics, including cloud revenue, fell short of estimates. Furthermore, the IT sector could also be feeling some pressure amid comments from TSMC post-earnings as the chip-giant expects a global semiconductor contraction this year. On the flip side, healthcare names (+1.5%) outperform as pharma heavyweight Novartis (+5.0%) rose to the top of the Stoxx 600 amid guidance upgrades in which FY 19 operating guidance was raised to “double digits to mid-teens” from “high single digits” and net sales guidance is now expected to be in the “mid to high single digits” compared to a prior view of “mid-single digits”.  Subsequently, shares in Roche (+1.3%) moved higher in tandem and thus Switzerland’s SMI (+0.9%) outperforms vs. its EU peers. In terms of individual movers, Germany’s Hochtief (-9.8%) fell to the foot of the pan-European index as its Asia-Pac division reported a decline in revenues, whilst easyJet (+4.8%) and Ubisoft shares are supported on the back of earnings. Looking ahead, British American Tobacco (+3.9%) and Imperial Brands (+1.2%) are awaiting numbers from US competitor Philip Morris.

Top European News

  • U.K. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Jump, Reversing Two-Month Drop
  • Nordea Sinks After Signaling It Will Cut Shareholder Rewards
  • Vodafone Wins Conditional EU Approval for Liberty Global Deal
  • Deutsche Bank Considers Subletting Zig Zag Offices in London

In FX, the Pound had already extended its rebound from midweek lows (and a fresh sub-1.2400 ytd trough vs the Usd) on a combination of positive sounding EU remarks about the Irish backstop, technical buying and short covering, but got an additional boost via UK retail sales data that confounded expectations for a 3rd consecutive monthly decline in consumption. For the record, the ONS reported a 1% rise in sales vs consensus for a 0.3% fall on the back of non-food items and 2nd hand goods, and Cable climbed towards 1.2500 in response, while Eur/Gbp retreated further from circa 0.9050 at one stage on Wednesday to 0.9000 before Sterling momentum waned somewhat ahead of a vote in Parliament on a bill to prevent its suspension and force through no Brexit deal.

  • AUD/NZD – The Aussie is the current G10 outperformer, and also partly due to bullish macro news, albeit not quite so apparent from the headline Aussie payrolls tally released overnight. However, internals were encouraging as permanent placements rose 21.1k (vs +10k forecast for full and part-time jobs combined) and underemployment eased. Aud/Usd subsequently reclaimed the 0.7000 handle and is back above the 100 DMA (0.7018) eyeing this week’s prior high just shy of 0.7050, but still below 1.0450 against the Kiwi that is benefiting from ongoing Greenback weakness. Indeed, Nzd/Usd is holding firm within a 0.6730-46 range as the DXY only just keeps its head above 97.000 following yesterday’s US housing data misses.
  • JPY/CHF/EUR – The Yen and Franc are back in demand on safe-haven grounds as US-China trade angst intensifies after the latest stall in negotiations on Huawei concessions, with Usd/Jpy down through 108.00 and seemingly capped ahead of more decent option expiries at or above the big figure (1.5 bn up to 108.15 and 1 bn from 108.30 to 108.50). Similarly, Usd/Chf has pulled back from around 0.9900 and Eur/Chf is under 1.1100 even though the single currency remains heavy on attempts to clear 1.1250 vs the Dollar and embroiled in tightly stacked expiries. Indeed, some 7 bn roll off between 1.1190 and 1.1275, as Eur/Usd breaks below a tight range to retest 1.1200 amidst reports that the ECB staff are looking at a revision to the inflation target.
  • EM – The Rand is also in a bind vs the Buck, with Usd/Zar straddling 14.0000 ahead of the SARB policy verdict that is expected to deliver a 25 bp cut in line with BoK and BI moves in the run up.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are marginally firmer following yesterday’s decline in the complex with prices currently above 57/bbl and 64/bbl respectively. Comments from Iranian Revolutionary Guard aided the benchmarks climb over the round figures, which stated they have stopped a foreign oil tanker in Lark Island in the Gulf. On the OPEC+ front, Russia’s Energy Minister acknowledged that Russian production will be increased to levels agreed in the accord. Meanwhile, gold prices are marginally softer and little influenced by the declining Buck as investors lock in profits following the yellow metal’s recent surge. Elsewhere, copper prices are little changed above the 2.7/lb whilst Dalian iron ore continued to decline as market participants reassess the base metal’s outlook given the rising shipments to China from Australia coupled with the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s higher transaction fees in all iron ore futures contracts.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 5, prior 0.3
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,500, prior 209,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.7m, prior 1.72m
  • 9:30am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks to Clarksville Chamber in Tennessee
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 63.8;
  • 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.1%, prior 0.0%
  •  2:15pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Whether it’s investors waiting on the sidelines for the FOMC meeting in under two weeks, a reluctance to break past recent record highs, or just a general lack of newsflow to get excited about, risk assets are certainly lacking a bit of inspiration at the moment. The S&P 500 closed down -0.65% last night and below the 3k level again while there were similar declines for the DOW (-0.42%) and NASDAQ (-0.46%).

Earnings were the main focus with a big slide for freight transport operator CSX (-10.27%) front and centre. That was the biggest decline since 2008 after the company forecast weaker sales for 2019 with the company CEO calling the present economic backdrop “one of the most puzzling I have experienced in my career”. On aggregate yesterday though earnings were still better than expected and the same can be said for Bank of America which gained +0.93% on the back of gains in the retail division. That offset declines in trading revenue – a similar trend to the other US banks that have reported so far.

Late last night we also got results from some of the high profile tech names, with IBM and eBay both beating estimates. However the big move came for Netflix which dropped as much as -13% in late trading after its report revealed that the company had lost 130k US-based subscribers, most likely as a result of recent price hikes. Competition in the streaming sector is heating up, with Disney and Apple set to launch their own services later this year, followed by Comcast and AT&T next year. S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures are down -0.23% and -0.46%, respectively, this morning.

On a related note, yesterday we published a US credit strategy note looking ahead to earnings season and highlighting the USD BBB- potential fallen angels names to look out for. A couple of stats that stood out include there being $768bn of BBB- bonds which are 1-3 downgrade notches away from HY and of that, $144bn of bonds where the number of notches of downgrade required is less than or equal to the number of rating agencies that have a negative watch or outlook. That’s 19% of the BBB- universe. See the link here for the full report .

Back to markets, where the risk off moves led to a decent bid for bond markets with 10y Treasuries finishing -5.7bps lower in yield and the 2s10s curve flattening -2.1bps. The Fed released its beige book of anecdotal economic commentary, which showed broadly steady growth over the last several weeks. The labour market continued to improve, albeit at a slower pace, and price inflation moderated. Separately, Kansas City Fed President George, considered the most hawkish member of the committee, gave a somewhat surprisingly dovish speech. She emphasized demographic trends and noted that the natural rate of unemployment may be lower than thought, which would make rate cuts less risky from an inflation standpoint. Treasuries continued their rally throughout the Fedspeak. Speaking of safe havens doing well, Gold (+1.45%) tested the recent highs again yesterday while Silver jumped +2.63% for the biggest daily gain since January.

This morning in Asia equity markets are trading lower, with the Nikkei (-1.60%) leading the declines as data overnight showed Japanese exports fell -6.7% yoy (vs. -5.4% expected), the seventh consecutive monthly fall. A report in the Nikkei suggesting that Canon is expected to profit warn next week is also doing some damage. In Korea the equity moves are smaller however, with the Kospi down -0.33% after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25bps overnight to 1.5%, the first rate cut since 2016. The Bank of Korea also cut their growth forecast for the country to +2.2% this year, down from +2.5% previously. Following the decision, the Korean won has actually strengthened against other major currencies this morning, and is currently +0.31% against the US dollar. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.46%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.65%) are also lower.

Also worth flagging are a couple of trade stories out overnight in the WSJ and SCMP which are perhaps adding to the slightly damper mood in markets. The suggestion from both are that US-China trade talks have stalled or are stalling and that China appears less willing to compromise. The WSJ story in particular suggests that China is waiting to see what the US does on Huawei before making any commitments.

Moving on. In Europe yesterday it was also a decent for bond markets where 10y Bunds rallied -4.5bps to close at -0.294% despite euro area core inflation getting revised 7bps higher to 1.12% yoy and the headline index revised up 0.1pp to 1.3%. Elsewhere, the STOXX 600 faded to close -0.37% after the US session kicked into gear, with the auto sector (-1.45%) lagging. Euro area new car registrations fell -7.8% yoy, for the worst June since 2015. Other cyclical sectors fared poorly as well, including a -1.74% drop for European Banks and -2.07% fall by the oil and gas sector. The latter was catching up to Tuesday evening’s descent in oil prices. That was compounded by a further -1.07% decline in crude yesterday, after US data showed a smaller-than-expected drawdown in stockpiles.

Before turning to the remainder of yesterday’s economic data, it’s worth highlighting updated forecasts from our US econ team. They still expect the Fed to cut rates three times this year, by 25bps each, and the see core PCE inflation staying below-target at 1.8% by the end of the year. The only major change to the forecast is slightly higher growth due to the recent firming in consumer spending, as our team now sees Q2 growth 0.3pp higher at 1.8%, taking the full year forecast up 0.1pp to 2.0% Q4/Q4.

Finally, yesterday’s economic data in the US including the latest housing numbers and which were fairly underwhelming. Housing starts fell -0.9% mom in June (vs. -0.7% expected) while permits plummeted -6.1% mom (vs. +0.1% expected), although the latter does tend to be quite volatile. In the UK there were no surprises in the June inflation numbers. Core CPI rose one-tenth to +1.8% yoy as expected while headline CPI was unchanged at +2.0% yoy, also as expected.

To the day ahead now, which this morning includes the June retail sales report in the UK, before US data releases include jobless claims, July Philly Fed business outlook and June leading index. Away from that it’s the turn of the Fed’s Bostic and Williams to speak this afternoon and this evening, respectively, while the last of the big US banks in Morgan Stanley is due to report earnings. Microsoft is the other notable company reporting.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 422.94 POINTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8807 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8807 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8834 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

South Korea unexpectedly undergoes a rate cut and that sends Asian stocks down and not up.  The fear of course is  that the global economy is seizing up

(zerohedge)

 

Asian Stocks Slide Despite Unexpected Bank Of Korea Rate Cut

A few months back, we warned that one of the most-followed bellwethers for global growth has just flashed a warning sign that was impossible to ignore: South Korea’s GDP contracted 0.3% QoQ in Q1, a sign that declining investment and exports were beginning to take a toll on Asia’s fourth-largest economy, and the broader region.

GDP

One quarter later, and exports across the region have continued to weaken as global trade contracts, which is perhaps why the Bank of Korea on Thursday decided to try and get ahead of the curve and surprise the market by cutting its base rate for the first time since 2016, joining a wave of central banks that have been cutting rates as the global economy slows (Indonesia’s central bank also cut rates for the first time in nearly two years on Thursday).

BOK

Here’s the FT:

The quarter-point cut to 1.5 per cent came after pressure mounted on the BoK to act quickly to prop up the country’s slowing economy following its worst quarterly contraction since the global financial crisis in the first three months of this year, and deteriorating conditions since then.

Seoul is locked in a trade row with Tokyo, which has seen Japan tighten curbs on chemical shipments needed for production of semiconductors, South Korea’s biggest export item.

“Economic circumstances have deteriorated since April…With the rate cut, we took into account the effects from Japan’s trade restrictions,”BoK governor Lee Ju-yeol told a news conference on Thursday.

Unfortunately, a cut that the policy makers at the BOK probably viewed as a prescient decision is already beginning to look more like a mistake, as local markets appear to be far more concerned with whatever inspired the rate cut.

After all, the BOK also slashed its growth target for this year to 2.2% from its previous forecast of 2.5%, and lower than the government’s forecast of 2.4%. By comparison, South Korea’s economy grew by 2.7% last year.

In response, the Kospi slid, Korean bonds rallied, and the won strengthened 0.4% against the dollar. The move reverberated across the region, and global markets, as the MSCI Asia Pacific dropped 0.7% and Japan’s TOPIX dropped 2%. In the US, S&P futures were off 0.7%.

Exports, a major driver of South Korea’s economy (particularly the all-important semi-conductors) have fallen for the past seven months, and continued trade friction between the US and China (and South Korea and Japan) will likely continue to take a toll, seeing as the trade spat between the two largest economies is unlikely to end any time soon.

Economists expect more rate cuts to follow later in the year. Will the market take to monetary easing? Or is there more unrest ahead. We’ll have to wait and see.

END

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Shock in Japan as an arson attack on a Japanese animation studio leaves 33 dead and many injured..some critically

(zerohedge)

Shock Daylight Arson Attack On Japanese Anime Studio Leaves 33 Dead

A popular animation production studio in Kyoto, Japan has gone up in flames after a reported arson attack, leaving a shocking 33 people confirmed or presumed dead, and another 36 injured – some critically – according to Japanese fire department statements. It’s Japan’s worst case of arson in decades and among the highest mass casualty events in its recent history.

The three-story building was quickly engulfed after a man sprayed a flammable liquid onto it while reportedly shouting, “You die!” according to local media reports. Many among the deceased had been trapped on the top floor and perished attempting to to get to the roof.

Police arrested a 41-year-old man who had shouted “die” as he poured what appeared to be petrol around the three-story Kyoto Animation building shortly after 10 a.m. — Reuters

 

The country’s worst case of arson in decades as Kyoto Animation went up in flames. Image source: Kyodo News

The suspect has been detained and is being treated for injuries at a hospital. Early reports didn’t give a motive or were able to identify whether he had been an employee of Kyoto Animation Co., possibly disgruntled or engaged in revenge attack.

An emergency responder told the AFP, “Callers reported having heard a loud explosion from the first floor of Kyoto Animation and seeing smoke.” It total some 70 people had been working inside the building at the time of the attack.

NHKニュース

@nhk_news

アニメ会社で火事 けが人多数か “ガソリンまいたか” 京都https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20190718/k10011996791000.html 

Embedded video

It was among the deadliest fires in Japan’s recent history, as the AP reports:

Authorities say 20 people have been now confirmed dead, with nearly 10 others presumed dead. The outcome makes the case the deadliest fire since a 2001 fire that killed 44 in Tokyo’s Kabukicho entertainment district.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called the arson attack “too appalling for words” in a statement posted to social media.

 

Kyoto Animation works, via Kyodo News

Though nation-wide Japan is marked by low crime incidents, occasional major senseless tragedies rock the country and grab world headlines.

Kyoto Animation has produced the “Sound! Euphonium” series and the upcoming “Free! Road to the World — The Dream” movie, according to Reuters.

end

3c China/Chinese affairs

China/USA

We are basically back to December when the two sides had the deal talks stalled.  It seems that the Chinese are very much against structural changes.

(zerohedge)

Stalled Progress Raises Doubts About Prospects For US-China Trade Deal

Mere hours after WSJ reported that trade-deal negotiations had hit a snag over how to roll back restrictions on Huawei – something that President Trump reportedly promised President Xi as a precondition for restarting talks – Bloomberg is following up with its own story about how Trump and Xi are making slow progress, raising doubts about whether the differences between the two sides can ever be reconciled.

Trump

Last week, President Trump complained in a tweet that China wasn’t buying the agricultural goods it promised.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Mexico is doing great at the Border, but China is letting us down in that they have not been buying the agricultural products from our great Farmers that they said they would. Hopefully they will start soon!

And there’s been no discernible change in the US government’s treatment of Huawei, or its presence on a Commerce Department blacklist.

Sources close to Trump told Bloomberg that, with Trump already gearing up for his reelection campaign, the likelihood of a deal is looking increasingly remote. Earlier this week, Trump warned that he could still impose more tariffs on China if he wanted, even as Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer, the leaders of the US delegation, were preparing for talks with their Chinese counterparts.

In what sounds like a repeat of the confusion that followed the original trade truce in December, the two sides are reportedly still not on the same page about what exactly was agreed upon in Osaka. Beijing is apparently refusing to buy any American agricultural goods until restrictions on Huawei are lifted, and the US hasn’t taken Huawei off the entities list. Steven Mnuchin has reportedly been calling CEOs of US companies and asking them to seek exemptions to the entities list restrictions, but whatever the hangup is with Huawei, it’s not exactly clear.

And even if these two issues are resolved, there’s still the task of forging a mutually agreeable deal. The two sides remain at odds over Washington’s demands for structural reforms, China’s economy and Beijing’s call for the US to remove all existing punitive tariffs on imports from China.

Plus, now that the campaign is a factor, Beijing has every reason to stay cautious (after all, there’s a possibility that any progress could be erased should Trump lose), and Trump will soon become more preoccupied with optics – and walking away with anything short of the “great” deal he promised could create problems on that front.

If there’s any upside for markets, it’s that as long as there’s no end in sight for trade talks, the central bank has a solid excuse to deliver the 50 bp rate cut later this month that would likely send US stocks to fresh all-time highs.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU

Purchases of cars in Europe are well down as we witness EU car registration crater from June

(zerohedge)

Carmageddon Continues: EU Car Registrations Crater In June

The global automotive collapse continues, denting the narrative of the “strong consumer”, as countries again posted poor YOY comps despite the industry starting to show signs of shakiness during mid-2018. The China/U.S. trade war and global economies that have slipped into recession have played a role in one of the largest global slowdowns in the automotive sector to date. And that trend is now accelerating in the EU.

According to new data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association out of Brussels shows, new car registrations in the EU plunged again, this time by 7.8% to 1,446,183 units in June, the biggest monthly drop of 2019.

The drop is being attributed to a negative calendar effect due to the fact that June only counted 19 working days across the EU compared to 21 days in 2018. The five major EU markets all posted declines as a result, with France falling 8.4% and Spain falling 8.3%. However, that’s hardly the full story as individual auto manufacturers in the EU are not showing any signs of relief, according to Bloomberg:

 

  • Daimler last week issued its fourth profit warning in just over a year due to the costs of a recall and allegations of emissions-tampering in diesel cars. The carmaker also blamed weaker global markets.
  • BMW in May reported its first loss in a decade in the main automotive division.
  • Renault’s partner Nissan Motor Co. was the worst hit during the first six months of this year, registering a 24% drop in European sales.
  • After Nissan, Honda and Fiat-Chrysler registered the worst sales in Europe since the start of the year with 15.4% and 9.5% declines respectively.

The European data continues an ugly worldwide trend for automobiles, as the first half of 2019 saw demand for new passenger cars across the EU down 3.1% to 8.2 million registrations. Alas, things don’t look to be getting better anytime soon, either. Peter Fuss, a partner at EY consultancy said: “We’re standing in front of a difficult second half of the year. Little positive impetus for the new car market in the EU can be expected in the coming months.”

The problems in the auto market are hardly contained to the EU.

About a week ago, we reported that China was again bracing for another annual drop in auto sales. Earlier in the year, the CAAM had thought zero growth for the year was a possibility, but now it looks like vehicle sales will once again drop – even after an abysmal 2018. 

The sector contracted for the 12th straight month in June and sales were down 2.8% in 2018.

end
UK
The huge Woodford Fund suspended redemptions last month and now he is being forced to some unlisted liquidations.  Big problems here, as this is England` s no 1 fund.
(zerohedge)

Woodford’s Once Iconic Fund Begins Forced Liquidations, Vows “No Big Discounts”

British fund manager Neil Woodford – who has been faced with an avalanche of redemption requests – is kicking off asset sales by trying to offload his unlisted biotech investments, according to Reuters.

The process could take months, according to the source behind the scoop.

As we have reported in the past, Woodford has left thousands of investors without access to their savings after suspending its flagship $4.63 billion equity income fund about a month and a half ago after overwhelming redemption requests.

The biotech assets are set to be sold as part of a structured auction which could last up to three months. This means that investors looking to redeem could face another several quarters before they have access to their money. Boutique investment bank PJT has been hired to handle the sale but has yet to sign onto an official mandate. They are expected to start the process later this month and declined to comment for the story.

 

The sale is going to first address Woodford’s illiquid assets that will be bundled into multiple portfolios to be auctioned off. Woodford is also going to sell some of its listed, but illiquid assets, in addition to liquid investments on public exchanges which will also be packaged into different portfolios and auctioned off separately.

Investors including HarbourVest Partners and Coller Capital are expected to bid for parts of the portfolio, though both parties declined to comment. Existing investors in the fund’s top 10 holdings will have preemptive rights and will need to be approached first before trying to lure third parties into the deal. Hedge funds Lansdowne Partners, Odey Asset Management and Redmile own shares in names that Woodford owns.

There’s no official deadline to finalize the divestitures and some major holdings could still be sold individually.

The source said:

 “Price is the main thing here. It’s all about getting the best value.”

Meanwhile, Woodford himself said on July 1:

 “My view is that we won’t have to take big discounts”.

Healthcare and biotech were favorite sectors of Woodfords’ and made up nearly a quarter of the fund’s portfolio.

But “unicorn” companies like drug discovery company BenevolentAI and DNA sequencing technology firm Oxford Nanopore are difficult to value because they often have few orders and no revenue. Six Woodford biotech holdings produced losses last year.

Valuing these firms was, and will continue to be, “quite an art form”, according to Nooman Haque, managing director, life sciences and healthcare, at Silicon Valley Bank.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran

Not sure if this is the same tanker seized on Saturday or is this a new one,,Iran seizes the foreign tanker because of smuggling`.  This is getting very tense as Iran has promised to get even with the West after they seized an Iranian vessel around Gibralter last week.

(zerohedge)

 

 

Iran Seizes Foreign Tanker “Smuggling” Fuel In The Gulf

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it has seized a foreign vessel with 12-crew members carrying one million barrels of oil. In an official Iranian media statement early on Thursday, the country’s military asserted the tanker was caught smuggling” the fuel through the Strait of Hormuz

While details to the breaking story remain confused, with some early reports speculating it could be reference to the Riahtanker which since the past weekend disappeared as it drifted toward Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz, what is clear is that Tehran is ramping up the pressure,perhaps now making good on its longtime threat to cut off global shipping through the vital oil passageway.

 

Illustrative image: tanker in the Persian Gulf. 

“A foreign vessel smuggling one million liters of fuel in the Lark Island of the Persian Gulf has been seized,” state run ISNA said, adding that the ship was seized on Sunday.

This was the same day Iran had claimed to have “rescued” the UAE-owned, Panamanian-flagged Riah as it was in need of repairs due to technical problems, however, neither Iran’s military nor media identified the seized vessel or its country in initial statements. 

Iran’s Press TV has issued the following details in a breaking statement:

The incident took place to the south of the Iranian Lark Island on Sunday.

IRGC naval forces, which were patrolling the waters on an anti-smuggling mission, acted against the vessel ina “surprise” operation upon ascertaining the nature of its cargo and securing the required legal approval from Iranian authorities.

The ship had loaded the fuel from Iranian dhows and was about to hand it over to other foreign vessels in farther waters. The vessel, which had 12 foreign crewmembers aboard at the time of the mission, is capable of carrying two million liters of fuel.

The statement hailed the naval forces’ “perceptiveness” in frustrating the smuggling effort. It added that the crime had invoked due legal proceedings.

In the past days Iran has vowed to “answer” the UK’s seizure and detention of the ‘Grace 1’ which had been transporting 2 million barrels of Iranian oil to Syria. The Royal Marines had boarded it in the Strait of Gibraltar and arrested its crew.

Tehran condemned it as an act of “piracy” and warned the UK it would respond in kind. Thursday’s so far mysterious vessel seizure announced by the IRGC could be the start of the promised coming retribution.

developing…

end

Iran makes a substantive move by offering to formally and permanently accept enhanced inspections of its nuclear program in return to drop the sanctions. Trump however wants more i.e. stop enriching their nuclear program and stop supporting their proxies in the middle east.

It is however a good start as Iran is bleeding to death.

(zerohedge)

Iran Offers Nuclear Deal If US Lifts Sanctions; Oil Tumbles

Who knew Rand Paul could be such an effective negotiator.

One day after the Republican senator and son of Ron Paul was reported to be Trump’s liaison to negotiate with Iran in hopes of easing tensions, sending the price of oil tumbling, the Guardian report that Iran has offered a deal with the US in which it would “formally and permanently” accept enhanced inspections of its nuclear program, in return for the permanent lifting of US sanctions.

The offer was made by Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, on a visit to New York, although for those hoping that the US and Iran will become bffs, don’t get your hopes up: as the Guardian notes, the offer is unlikely to be warmly received by the Trump administration, which is currently demanding Iran make a range of sweeping concessions, including cessation of uranium enrichment and support for proxies and allies in the region.

To this, Zarif countered that his offer was “a substantial move”.

 

“It’s not about photo ops. We are interested in substance,” he told reporters at the Iranian mission to the UN in New York on Thursday. “There are other substantial moves that can be made.”

“If they [the Trump administration] are putting their money where their mouth is, they are going to do it. They don’t need a photo op. They don’t need a two-page document with a big signature.”

In May of 2018, Trump unleashed an oil embargo on Iran, coupled with severe banking sanctions, when the US withdrew the US from the 2015 multilateral nuclear deal with Iran known as the Joint Comprehensive Programme of Action (JCPOA). The ongoing embargo has not only crippled Iran’s economy, but triggered a standoff in the Gulf that has escalated dramatically in recent months, with sabotage attacks on foreign tankers, blamed on Iran by the US. In the latest incident on Thursday, Iran said it had seized a foreign-owned vessel suspected of being used for oil smuggling out of Iran.

Zarif dismissed the incident as a routine marine policing matter.

He said: “It’s not a tanker. It’s a small ship carrying a million litres, not a million barrels, of oil. We do it every other day. These are people who are smuggling our fuel. This is … one of the things that we do in the Persian Gulf, because of the heavy subsidies that we provide for our own fuel products.”

An unexpected moment of diplomatic tenderness emerged when Zarif credited Trump with “prudence” for calling off missile attacks last month in reprisal for the downing of a US surveillance drone, and said that gave him confidence that diplomatic progress is possible.

He said: “I believe we were few minutes away from a war. Prudence prevailed and we’re not fighting. So that gives reason for us to be optimists. If we work, if we are serious, then we can find a way forward.”

But the reason why today’s olive leaf by Iran was notable is that until now, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei has rebuffed overtures for direct talks with Trump, citing US bad faith over the JCPOA, but Zarif signaled on Thursday that Iran was willing to do a deal that did not necessary involve the US returning to the JCPOA, Tehran’s official position until now.

The result: oil prices are tumbling for a fourth day…

… as a major source of geopolitical uncertainty now appears to be on its way out… or at least until Trump comments that nothing that Iran has offered is an acceptable basis for negotiation.

 end
Iran/USA
Then late this afternoon:
USA Navy shoots down Iranian drone over the Strait of Hormuz after it came within 1000 yds of the ship
(zerohedge)

US Navy Shoots Down Iranian Drone Over Strait Of Hormuz: Trump

President Trump announced on Thursday that the amphibious assault ship, the USS Boxer, shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz in a defensive action.

Bloomberg TicToc

@tictoc

MORE: Trump said that the Iranian drone’s actions were “the latest of many provocative and hostile actions by Iran”

Embedded video

Operators of the drone refused calls to stand down, after which it was “immediately destroyed,” when it came within 1,000 yards of the ship according to the president, “threatening the safety of the ship and the ship’s crew.”

 

Via Jennifer Jacobs, Bloomberg

Trump has called on “other nations to protect their ships as they go through the Strait.

 

Downed Iranian drone from 2015 incident

The comments come as tensions between Washington and Tehran remain high over a spate of attacks on cargo ships, the downing of an American drone and the British seizure of a tanker carrying Iranian oil. Earlier in the day, the U.S. condemned Iranian naval activity in the Persian Gulf and demanded the Islamic Republic release a small tanker and its crew that its forces seized this week. A State Department official who asked not to be identified discussing the issue cited the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ “continued harassment” of vessels in and around the Strait. -Bloomberg

Oil futures jumped a bit on the news, climbing 34 cents a barrel to reel in some of the day’s 2.6% loss.

end

Turkey..USA

Trump officially kicks Turkey out of the F 35 program over its purchase of Russian S 400

(zerohedge)

White House Kicks Turkey Out Of F-35 Program Over S-400 Deal

It’s finally ‘game over’ for Turkey and the F-35 joint strike fighter program after it received a first batch of S-400 Russian-made air defense components starting last Friday, with Russian military planes continuing deliveries into early this week.

“Turkey’s decision to purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems renders its continued involvement with the F-35 impossible,” a White House statement read.The official statement added:

“The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities.”

 

File image: US F-35 joint strike fighter 

Purchased F-35 deliveries from their Lockheed Martin producer had already been held up for the past year as Washington and Ankara exchanged threats over the impending S-400 purchase. Up until today it wasn’t clear if the Trump administration would follow through on its promise to indefinitely block the transfer.

“Turkey has been a longstanding and trusted partner and NATO Ally for over 65 years, but accepting the S-400 undermines the commitments all NATO Allies made to each other to move away from Russian systems,” the statement continued.

The Pentagon will also transfer Turkey’s industrial participation in the F-35 to other countries by 2020, which will cut major Turkish defense contractors Turkish Aerospace Industries, Roketsan and Tusas Engine Industries, and others from development on the F-35 platform a loss of an estimated $9 billion over the life of the program.

However, according to Defense Newsthe Pentagon hasn’t completely ruled out Turkey rejoining the program should it reverse course on acceptance of the S-400, something not at all likely to happen.

After in the past week it canceled two press briefings related to Turkey, the Pentagon held a rare on-camera conference immediately following the White House statement.

“Turkey cannot field a Russian intelligence collection platform in proximity to where the F-35 program makes repairs, and houses the F-35,” Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition Ellen Lord told reporters. “Much of the F-35′s strength lies in its stealth capabilities, so the ability to detect those capabilities would jeopardize the long term security of the F-35 program. We seek only to protect the long term security of the F-35 program.”

END

Turkey..USA

The big fear:  Turkish forces comes in contact with USA forces in Idlib province

(zerohedge)

Pentagon Fears Turkey To Retaliate Against US Troops In Syria Over New Sanctions

As expected, Turkey blasted the White House’s prior day announcement that it has killed Turkey’s involvement in the F-35 joint strike fighter program after Ankara received a first batch of S-400 Russian-made air defense components starting last week. Turkey’s foreign ministry called on the US to rectify its “mistake”.

“This unilateral step is incompatible with the spirit of alliance and does not rely on any legitimate justification,” the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a strong-worded statement immediately following the White House press release. “We call on the United States to come back from this mistake that will cause irreparable wounds in our strategic relations,” it said.

 

Image source: AFP/Getty

The White House had stated  while confirming it would indefinitely block transfer of the F-35: “Turkey’s decision to purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems renders its continued involvement with the F-35 impossible,” and added, “The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities.”

Turkey has responded to Trump’s firm stance by staying it’s “unfair”. According to state-run TRT World: “Excluding Turkey, one of the main partners from the F35 program is unfair, and the claim that S-400 system will weaken the F-35s is invalid,” the foreign ministry said.

Meanwhile, at a moment that looming military conflict between Turkey, the Syrian Army and Damascus’ ally Russia is heating up near Idlib, the Pentagon issued a separate statement Wednesday demanding that the Turkish army avoid striking US troops in the region amid a Turkish build-up of forces along the border.

The statement warned the US would consider any “unilateral actions into northeastern Syria,” particularly targeting US troops, as “unacceptable”.

 

Northern Syria situation in 2018, via NYT. American presence has stayed the same in the northeast since then.

Pentagon spokesman Navy Cmdr. Sean Robertson said:

Unilateral action into northeastern Syria by any party, particularly as U.S. personnel may be present or in the vicinity, is of grave concern. We would find any such actions unacceptable.”

Over the past week Turkey appears to have been amassing its forces near the border for an upcoming assault on US-allied Kurdish forces in Syria’s northeast.

American defense officials fear Turkey’s military could be tempted toward retaliation against US forces currently assisting Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) over new US sanctions related Turkey’s S-400 deal with Russia.

end
Saudi Arabia…USA

Trump sends an additional 500 troops to Saudi Arabia as conditions inside the middle east are heating up

(zerohedge)

Pentagon To Send 500 Troops To Saudi Arabia

After announcing last month that it would be sending 1,000 additional troops to the Middle East, the Pentagon revealed late Wednesday that 500 of those troops would be heading to the Prince Sultan Air Base, situated in the desert east of Riyadh. It’s the latest sign that the Trump Administration is continuing its military buildup in the region, which has so far included fighter jets, B-52 bombers, an aircraft carrier strike force, Navy destroyers  and – of course – more troops.

Citing two senior defense officials, CNN reported that a small number of troops were already in the area, and initial preparations were being made for a Patriot missile defense battery as well as improvements to a runway and airfield. US security assessments have determined that the area would be ideal for US troop deployment because it would be difficult for Iran to target with missiles.

Satellite images obtained by CNN revealed the initial deployment to the air base in mid-June. Other images showed more preparations being made at the site earlier this month.

Pent

The deployment will strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia, which had been temporarily strained in the wake of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi as some lawmakers tried to prevent the US from selling arms to the kingdom, which has historically been one of the biggest purchasers of American arms. However, the Trump Administration is taking steps to expedite arms sales to the US’s Middle East allies, including Saudi Arabia.

However, the Pentagon has apparently dramatically scaled back plans to deploy 10,000 troops to the region to “monitor Iran”.

One of CNN’s sources said Congress has been given an informal heads up about the deployment, and would be formally notified next week.

Ultimately, the US hopes to be able to fly stealth, fifth-generation F-22 jets from the base.

RUSSIA..EU.. INSTEX
A major threat to USA hegemony: Russia offers to join the European SWIFT bypass known as Instex
(zerohedge)

In Major Threat To Dollar’s Reserve Status, Russia Offers To Join European SWIFT-Bypass

Three weeks after a meeting between the countries who singed the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was ditched by US, French, British and German officials said the trade mechanism which was proposed last summer – designed to circumvent both SWIFT as well as US sanctions banning trade with Iran – called Instex, is now operational.

And while we await for the White House to threaten Europe with even greater tariffs unless it ends this special purpose vehicle – it already did once back in May when it warned that anyone associated with the SPV could be barred from the U.S. financial system if it goes into effect – a response from the US is now assured, because in the biggest attack on the dollar as a reserve currency to date, on Thursday, Russia signaled its willingness to join the controversial payments channel, and has called on Brussels to expand the new mechanism to cover oil exports, the FT reported.

Moscow’s involvement in the Instex channel would mark a significant step forward in attempts by the EU and Russia to rescue a 2015 Iran nuclear deal that has been unravelling since the Trump administration abandoned it last year.

“Russia is interested in close co-ordination with the European Union on Instex,” the Russian foreign ministry told the Financial Times. “The more countries and continents involved, the more effective will the mechanism be as a whole.”

… and the more isolated the US will be as a currency union meant to evade SWIFT and bypass the dollar’s reserve currency status will soon include virtually all relevant and important countries. Only China would be left outstanding; after the rest of the world’s would promptly join.

On Thursday, the Kremlin confirmed the foreign ministry’s take:

“We are tracking the information regarding this. If I’m not mistaken, there have already been statements from our side that, taking into account the first experience of using this system, when it is activated, we cannot rule out interaction in this regard,” Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, told reporters.

“This is an important project. It is aimed at protecting the interests of European economic operators against the background of illegal attempts to restrict their activities by third countries,” he added.

Earlier, the Russian foreign ministry hinted at precisely what will take place next, when it said that “The full potential of Instex will only be able to be deployed if it will be open to the participation of countries which are not members of the European Union.” Such as Russia and China.

Ironically, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, has previously described Instex as “not sufficient” even though Russia was far more promise, and said Instex was “a good tool in the implementation of projects . . . that the United States has strongly torpedoed” but called for it to be expanded to include crude oil.

“If the encouraging statements by the EU . . . will be backed up by concrete steps and practical advances, including in relation to the use of Instex for servicing trading in Iranian oil, it will help stabilise the difficult situation created around the JCPOA,” it said.

Russia has strengthened its ties with Iran in recent years as part of Moscow’s increased geopolitical importance in the Middle East, including its role of propping up the Assad regime in the war in Syria.

At a meeting with Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani last month, Russian president Vladimir Putin vowed to continue developing trade ties with Tehran and said Moscow was committed to a project to expand the Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran. As the FT correctly notes, efforts to rescue the nuclear deal have been a rare area of co-operation between Brussels and Moscow, whose relations have soured in recent years.

* * *

Since US president Donald Trump pulled out of the deal last May, its other signatories — Germany, France, UK, China and Russia — have scrambled to find ways to maintain trade with Iran. But they have been stymied by companies’ reluctance to risk Washington’s wrath.

As a reminder, Instex was launched in January but subsequently delayed by bureaucratic hurdles and the complications caused by the US sanctions. It only became operational last month and has been criticised by both Tehran – for having big limitations – and the US – for existing.

Iran has a more valid point: just 10 EU states are members and the mechanism’s initial credit line of several million euros is a fraction of EU-Iran trade, which stood at more than €20bn annually before the US sanctions.

Meanwhile, it appears that Moscow will get an invite because as the FT adds, Brussels is interested in bringing Russia into Instex, but it would first seek to get the channel up and running with humanitarian aid trades before potentially expanding its scope or membership.

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy head, said this week that the trade mechanism “has always been conceived to be open to third countries . . . and we are already seeing interest by some of them to participate in that”, although she did not identify them. “The issue of whether or not Instex will deal with oil is a discussion that is ongoing among the shareholders,” she added.

And while Iran wants Europe to buy its oil so that it can use the hard currency earnings to import basic commodities and medicines through Instex, Russia is seeking to find ever more creative ways to chip away at US global dominance, with a focus on the dollar’s reserve currency status.

Additionally,  Moscow previously said that it would look into ways to facilitate or finance Iranian oil exports if Instex was not launched or proved to be ineffective.

As we discussed extensively last summer, the idea behind Instex was to set up a mirror image transaction system that replaces potentially sanctionable international payments between Europe and Iran with payments that do not cross Iran’s borders, nor are they denominated in dollars to avoid giving the US veto rights.

As a final point, the FT quotes analyst who said that China, which has repeatedly defied US sanctions on Iran, has greater potential to hand Tehran an economic lifeline by continuing to purchase Iranian crude exports; it has yet to be seen if China will also join Instex.

6.Global Issues

END

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDONESIA

This is sending shockwaves throughout the emerging markets and it is the first casualty of the USA/China trade war.  Indonesia’s Duniatex Group a large textile operation is having great difficulty finding dollars.  Its bond’s fell by a huge 6 notches to CCC with that significant liquidity challenge

(zerohedge)

Bond Investors Shocked After First Trade War Casualty Suffers 66% Loss In Three Days

Over a year in, the trade war between the US and China has claimed its first corporate casualty: a large Indonesian textile maker which missed a dollar loan payment last week is putting a fresh spotlight on how the stress from the geopolitical conflict is roiling global credit markets.

On Monday, S&P slashed its rating of dollar bonds sold by a subsidiary of Indonesia’s Duniatex Group (also known as Delta Merlin Dunia Textile) by six notches to CCC-, citing “significant liquidity challenges” after another group company missed a payment on a syndicated dollar loan that had matured on July 10.

The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are “significantly hurting” the Indonesian textile market, and Duniatex’s liquidity was affected by plummeting prices due to the oversupply of imported cheap fabric from China, S&P also said. The ratings agency pointed to ripple effects from the U.S.-China trade war in part for Duniatex’s worsened liquidity.

“The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are significantly hurting the Indonesian textile market,” S&P explained in the note. “Following the U.S.-imposed tariffs of 25% on Chinese imports, Chinese producers have started redirecting their products to more hospitable destinations, including Indonesia, from May onwards.”

 

While the Duniatex sub should be able to make a bond payment on a $300 million note it priced just 4 months ago back on March 5, bond investors aren’t so sure, and the note have plunged to a low as 34 cents on the dollar, after trading above par just this past Friday. If the company defaults in the coming months, this could be the first new bond issuance since Blockbuster that has defaulted before even paying a single coupon.

The stunning fall in Duniatex bonds has shocked bond investors, many of whom have scrambled to allocate money to emerging markets – such as Indonesia.

The Indonesian firm’s implosion also highlights the risks faced by investors as they buy into the region’s junk bond market, which has returned 11% so far this year, the most in three years. Recent bond defaults out of China have raised concerns about the quality of financial reports. One defaulter, Chinese firm Kangde Xin Composite Material, was found to have faked billions of yuan in profit.

Yet while US corporations can easily issue new debt and loans at ridiculously, some emerging market corporations are finding themsleve locked out; as a result more stress is emerging in Indonesia. Fitch Ratings on Wednesday cut its credit score on notes sold by Agung Podomoro Land’s subsidiary, citing delays in raising funds for refinancing. The company’s $300 million 2024 bond fell 11 cents on the dollar to 70.2 on Thursday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“This event reminds us of potential problems outside of China as well, with a lack of disclosure for private companies,” said Raymond Chia, head of credit research for Asia excluding Japan at Schroder Investment Management Ltd.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg highlights that the communication between Delta Merlin Dunia Tekstil and investors also highlights the difficulties bond buyers can face when things go sour.

There have been concerns about disclosure in recent defaults of unlisted companies including dollar bonds sold by CEFC Shanghai International Group and Reward Science and Technology Industry Group. Neither Duniatex nor its subsidiary that sold the bond or the loan are listed.

An email sent from a Duniatex executive to an investor that was seen by Bloomberg News, said “We will try to ring fenced DMDT as the bond issuer” from a missed payment on a loan.

We will update later, please dont call or email at this time, as my Inbox flooded with emails,” the email also said.

So with the issuer refusing to speak to anyone, attention turns to the underwriters: BNP Paribas and Standard Chartered arranged the bond sold in March. A spokeswoman for Standard Chartered declined to comment, while a spokesman for BNP Paribas also declined to comment when Bloomberg asked them how they could underwrite a bond that is set to default without having made a single payment.

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1219 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.85 DOWN 0.074 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2485   DOWN   0.0052  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3059 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 42% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 422.94  POINTS OR 1.97%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1421.10

silver:$16.06-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.05% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.57 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.16 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.47% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.13%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.41%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,56 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 111 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.31% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.87% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1276  DOWN     .0008 or 8 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.74 DOWN .199 OR YEN UP 20  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2491 UP .0057 POUND UP 57  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 32 basis points to 1.3086

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8800    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8872  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6842 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.13%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.06 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.59 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.15 UP 8I  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 42.37  0.56%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 113.18 POINTS OR .92%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 21.16 POINTS 0.38%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 58.50 POINTS or 0.63%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 11.43 POINTS OR 0.05%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.92 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 61.83 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.05  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.66//

 

 

BRENT :  62.41

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.03…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.57..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.177 ( UP 49   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.27 DOWN .667 (YEN UP 67 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.69 DOWN 53 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2554 UP 119  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6298

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.86   UP 0.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 3 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3034 UP 21 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8800  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8740 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.32%

 

The Dow closed UP 2.65 POINTS OR 0.01%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 22.04 POINTS OR 0.27%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.302%//libor dropping like a stone

 

Fed Hints At Rapid Return To ZIRP, Sends Everything Soaring As Dollar Plunges

NYFed Williams basically implied ZIRP is coming back and soon and that sent the market’s expectations for July rate cuts soaring (50bps now at 65%!)…

2019 rate-change expectations now back above 50bps…

Piling on, Fed’s Clarida added that research suggests acting preemptively when rates are low.

Gold, Bonds, & Stocks soared as the dollar dumped…

Seriously!! At record high stock prices!!!!

And all of that silliness sent stocks soaring… The Dow scrambled back to unchanged at the bell

 

With Nasdaq ripping back from its Netlfix-ing (even if NFLX didn’t budge – NFLX lost “A Deutsche Bank” in market cap today)…

 

S&P 500 desperately pushed higher to try and regain 3,000…

 

Trannies were tempestuous this week but remain entirely decoupled from global growth…

 

FANG Stocks (thanks to NFLX) reversed as expected at serious resistance…

 

IG and HY credit have notably decoupled…

 

Stocks and bonds remain drastically decoupled…

 

Treasury yields tumbled after Fed’s Williams comments..

10Y Yield is heading back towards 2.0%…

 

The (3m10Y) yield curve was steepening intraday (heading back towards 0) until Williams spoke…

 

Debt Ceiling Anxiety is building fast in the Bills curve…

 

The Dollar collapsed after Fed’s Williams ZIRP comments…

 

Yuan spiked…

 

USDJPY plunged to near 1-month lows, decoupling from stocks…

 

After more ugliness overnight, Cryptos surged today…

 

With Bitcoin blasting back above $10k…

 

Silver extended its huge week as crude crashed…

 

Gold surged on Williams comments…

 

Silver spiked over 2%…

 

Silver continues to outperform gold (off 26 year lows relative to the yellow metal)…

 

WTI continued its rapid decline, accelerating further on Iran nuclear deal headlines…

 

HY Energy credit has widened dramatically…

 

Oil’s slide has been largely ignored by stocks…

 

Finally, what do you want to hold here? Stocks or Silver?

 

And as far as the ridiculous spike in Philly Fed (the biggest jump in a decade), Gluskin-Sheff’s David Rosenberg clarifies:

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

Philly Fed should get its story straight. The index soared but Beige Book said “manufacturers reported slight growth in activity – a slower pace than in the prior period” and “…expectations of activity over the next six months changed little and remained subdued.”

21 people are talking about this

Trade accordingly…

And before we leave, is noone else somewhat worried about what exactly it is that The Fed is panicking about that prompts them to jawbone the odds of a 50bps rate cut this aggressively with stocks at record highs?

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

II)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Harvey:  (ZLB  =  zero lower bound)

Stocks & Bonds Jump, Dollar Dumps After Fed Williams ZIRP Comments

In a speech titled “living life near the ZILB,” NY Fed’s Williams suggested the lesson learned is to “take swift action” and the market appears to have taken that as uber-dovish, dumping the dollar and bidding for bonds and stocks…

  • *WILLIAMS CURRENTLY ESTIMATES NEUTRAL RATES IN U.S. AROUND 0.5%
  • *WILLIAMS: LONG-TERM FORCES LOWERING NEUTRAL RATES SET TO LINGER
  • *WILLIAMS: INVESTORS SEE LOW INFLATION READINGS AS A NEW NORMAL

As Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise notes, that refers to the real neutral interest rate, or r*, and not the nominal one of course. Perhaps the most pertinent comment from Williams is the injunction to:

First, take swift action when faced with adverse economic conditions.

Second, keep interest rates lower for longer.

And third, adapt monetary policy strategies to succeed in the context of low r-star and the ZLB.”

 

It’s that first point that appears to have sparked chaos as it could argue for policy action that’s more aggressive than it seem is required.

This sent the odds of a 50bps rate-cut in July to a shocking 55%

 

So much for Powell’s jawboning expectations back.

The dollar slumped…

Bond yields tumbled…

And stocks levitated (with Nasdaq getting back to unch)…

Another potential catalyst for the move was headlines from The Guardian claiming that Iran offered to agree to a nuclear deal if US dropped sanctions.

end

 

ii)Market data/USA

Philly Fed, a soft data entry soars to a 12 th month.  And let me get this straight;  THE FED IS GOING TO LOWER RATES?

(zerohedge)

Philly Fed Survey Soars To 12-Month Highs, Jumps Most In A Decade

Regional Fed survey were almost uniformly weak in June, and given The Fed’s seeming desperation to cut rates, one would expect that weakness to be continuing.

But, oh no! The ‘soft’ survey from The Philly Fed smashed expectations (+5.0), rising to 12-month highs at 21.8 from 0.3 in June.

This is the biggest MoM jump since June 2009!

Under the hood, everything exploded higher…

  • July prices paid rose to 16.1 vs 12.9
  • New orders rose to 18.9 vs 8.3
  • Employment rose to 30.0 vs 15.4
  • Shipments rose to 24.9 vs 16.6
  • Delivery time fell to 15.0 vs 15.6
  • Inventories rose to 8.1 vs 2.4
  • Prices received rose to 9.5 vs 0.6
  • Unfilled orders fell to 3.7 vs 10.2
  • Average workweek rose to 23.0 vs 7.3
  • Six-month outlook rose to 38.0 vs 21.4
  • Six-month outlook for capex rose to 36.9 vs 28.0

In fact, employment is at a record high for the survey!!

Do these ‘soft’ surveys have any value whatsoever when they can swing from 3 year lows to 1 year highs over the space of one month?

Finally, there’s the “special question” which suggests everyone is optimistic about the future…

So why are we cutting rates again?

END
Conference Board`s leading indicators (soft data) tumbled .3% in June.  This is a very reliable figure as to where we are heading
(zerohedge)

Leading Economic Indicators’ Slump Most In Over 40 Months

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. tumbled 0.3% in June to 111.5, following no change in May, and a 0.1% rise in April.

This is the biggest MoM drop since January 2016…

  • The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was leading Credit index at 0.12
  • The biggest negative contributor was building permits at -0.18

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

  • Average weekly hours, manufacturing
  • Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
  • Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
  • ISM® Index of New Orders
  • Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
  • Building permits, new private housing units
  • Stock prices, 500 common stocks
  • Leading Credit Index™
  • Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
  • Average consumer expectations for business conditions

“The US LEI fell in June, the first decline since last December, primarily driven by weaknesses in new orders for manufacturing, housing permits, and unemployment insurance claims,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board.

For the first time since late 2007, the yield spread made a small negative contribution. As the US economy enters its eleventh year of expansion, the longest in US history, the LEI suggests growth is likely to remain slow in the second half of the year.”

Seems like stocks may have got over their skis again?

Rate-cuts?

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Brandon Smith, an extremely bright fellow is of the view that the USA may not cut rates next week.  He believes that the fight with the Fed is nothing but a scripted farce..He explains why!|

(Brandon Smith)

Trump’s Fight With The Fed Over Interest Rates Is A Scripted Farce

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

There is a very bizarre narrative being circulated in the mainstream economic media and it goes a little something like this:

The Federal Reserve has capitulated on liquidity tightening yet the US economy is “stronger than ever”, isn’t that weird?”

There are a couple things wrong with this statement.

First, the Fed has not yet capitulated on its tightening policy. In fact, we have been hearing since last November from the mainstream media and some alternative media that the Fed was going to lower its Fed Funds Rate and end monthly balance sheet cuts at “any moment”, yet several months later it still has not happened. Just last month the Fed cut another $38 billion in assets from its balance sheet; a move that was barely discussed in the mainstream because it does not fit with the prevailing delusion that the Fed has “already capitulated”. When the Fed cuts rates back significantly and the asset dumps stop, then and only then can anyone say with any authority that the Fed has ended its tightening cycle.

Secondly, the US economy is not “stronger than ever”, it is at its weakest since just before the credit crash of 2008.

And here is where the disconnect begins in Fed policy versus public expectations and the behavior of the Trump Administration. Almost EVERYONE, including the Federal Reserve, Donald Trump and the media are talking about how the US economy is “booming”. So why all the fuss over the Fed’s interest rates? The truth is it’s just more theater for the masses.

The battle between Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell over Fed policy is a farce and always has been. Consider the facts – Trump ran his election campaign partly by taking a stance against central bank stimulus measures and ultra low rates. He explicitly attacked the notion that the US economy and stock markets were strong under Barack Obama, warning that the markets were in a bubble created by the Fed’s easing measures. Then, as soon as he entered the White House Trump flipped narratives and claimed the economy and the markets were strong, and that they were strong because of him.

Trump also said a little over a year ago that he wanted a strong US dollar, now he has reversed completely and says he wants a weaker dollar. In an indirect manner Trump has recently called for a monetary race to the bottom in competition with other nations. This display of bewildering policy gymnastics could be taken one of two ways – one, Trump is bipolar, or two, Trump is following the script that is given to him by the money elite day-to-day just like every president before him for at least the past hundred years. But what is the point of this absurd show?

As I have examined in depth in past articles, I believe the evidence shows that Trump is a pied piper for conservatives, and his attacks on the Fed are nothing more than world wrestling federation-style dramatics for the benefit of his base supporters.  Does anyone else think it’s rather strange that a supposedly fiscally conservative president is fighting for monetary easing while the Federal Reserve (the KING of easy money for the past decade) is fighting for liquidity tightening?  This only makes sense when you look at Trump’s background…

Trump’s companies have faced at least four separate bankruptcy threats since the 1990’s, yet he has been bailed out on more than one occasion by surprise investors. The most prominent of these investors was the Rothschild family through their agent Wilber Ross. Trump was saved from his vast debts tied to his Taj Mahal casino complex and three other major properties by the Rothschilds in the 1990’s, and some of these properties would go on to face bankruptcy again in 2009. The Taj Mahal would later sell for 4 cents on the dollar, yet Trump would always come out financially unscathed from these events.

Trump’s reputation and perhaps his entire current fortune is owed to the Rothschilds. This is probably the reason why, after becoming president, Trump loaded his cabinet with multiple globalists and banking elites, including Wilber Ross as his Commerce Secretary.

Trump is a perfect foil or catalyst to create the kind of chaos the banking elites need as cover for an event they sometimes refer to as “the global economic reset”. The economic reset is meant to cut a path to complete global centralization; meaning a one world monetary system controlled by the IMF, a one world currency, and ultimately a one world government. The Rothschilds (among many other elites) have publicly admitted to this plan numerous times, displaying their schemes in plain view in publications they own or control, like The Economist magazine.

Trump’s sudden shift from harsh critic of the US economic situation to taking ownership of every facet of the economy as if he is the sole cause of its supposed ascension is entirely deliberate. Trump is MEANT to take ownership of the US economy because he is MEANT to take the blame for its inevitable crash. If we look at almost every fundamental indicator a crash is already taking place now.

We now see the housing market suffering from a 7.8% overall drop in sales and an 8.1% drop in prices. We see auto market sales at the slowest pace in four years as interest rates rise on auto loans. We see historic levels of consumer debt and corporate debt. We see massive retail closures (more than 7500 closures announced so far this year), a grinding halt to shipping and freight, seven year lows in Global manufacturing PMI, the weakest U.S. manufacturing PMI since 2009, and a three month running inversion in the treasury yield curve, etc.

You will not see the Federal Reserve, the mainstream media or Donald Trump mention much about these signals of decline. The media will pay lip service at times while also promoting the notion that employment, GDP and the stock market are sure signs that the economy is “strong”.

Trump no longer argues that these indicators are rigged, even though unemployment stats do not include over 96 million working age Americans that are unemployed and are not counted on the benefits rolls. Even though GDP is calculated to include most government spending as if it is the same a wealth creation rather than wealth confiscation. Even though the stock market is entirely manipulated by unprecedented corporate stock buybacks, as well as levitated by Chinese stimulus measures flooding the global liquidity pool and investor hope that the Fed is about to reintroduce QE “at any moment”.

The Fed continues to claim that the US economy is experiencing a “strong” recovery.  The central bank’s public statements and “Beige Book” reports consistently paint a picture of financial health.  If the Fed was backing off of its tightening cycle, then why do they keep promoting the lie that the economy is stable and growing?

This is where we see the collusion between Trump and the media and the Fed. None of them will admit that the US economy is a fraudulent illusion. All of them are actively hiding the facts from the public. All of them are setting the American people up for an epic fall.

In terms of the fight over interest rates, Trump is playing his role as a bumbling villain; the guy who tried to meddle in economic affairs he did not fully comprehend and then bankrupted the country just like he bankrupted his own properties.

Many conservatives are eating up the propaganda that Trump is anti-fed, with endless stories on how Powell “had better watch out” or Trump will “have his head”. This sets up another false narrative that Trump is somehow in control of the Fed’s behavior. He is not. Trump’s own acting Chief of Staff staff has said “Trump knows he does not have the authority to fire Powell.” And, just last week Jerome Powell stated bluntly that if Trump tried to fire him he simply would not leave.Trump controls nothing when it comes to central bank policy. The Fed does whatever it wants to do.

I would point out that the Fed’s ONLY warnings surrounding the US economy have been rooted in “concerns” over Donald Trump’s policies, and more specifically the trade war.  They are already injecting the idea into the public consciousness that “everything was fine in the US economy until Trump came along”. The stage has been set for the controlled demolition of the US financial system and of conservative ideals of sovereignty.

The elites intend to use Trump as a parable, a warning to future generations. They will say – “You see, this is what happens when you allow populists and nationalists to take power. This is what happens when conservatives are allowed to propagate their crazy ideals. This is what happens when you try to interfere in the autonomy of central bankers who know better than you how to run the economy – You get a catastrophe.”

If the Fed actually does “capitulate” (one of these days), then history can blame Trump for putting political pressure on central bankers who are “supposed to be independent”. If the Fed does not capitulate and Trump continues his attacks on the institution history can still blame Trump for sowing the seeds of doubt and damaging faith in the US financial structure.

In the meantime, the Fed and other central banking institutions have created all the elements necessary to cause a devastating blow to the global economy and most of all the US economy. If Trump were a legitimate patriot and defender of US interests he would detach his administration from the stock markets and openly admit to all the factors that show our financial system is failing. But he will not do this. That is not his job. His job is to act chaotic, to confuse the public, to play shepherd to conservatives while leading them to the slaughterhouse, and to become a scapegoat for a crash the central bankers set in motion over 8 years before Trump became president.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

END
The Pentagon now sends another 2100 troops to its southern border
(zerohedge)

Pentagon Sends 2,100 More Troops To Southern Border

Less than a month after Congress passed and Trump signed a $4.6 billion emergency spending bill to address the still-raging humanitarian crisis at the border, the Pentagon has authorized the deployment of another 1,100 active-duty troops and 1,000 Texas National Guardsmen – which will increase the number of American military personnel at the southwestern border by 45%.

The new arrivals will join the roughly 4,500 personnel currently stationed at the border.

Richard Spencer, who has temporarily assumed the role of acting defense secretary while Mark Esper, President Trump’s nominee to permanently fill the position, faces confirmation hearings in the Senate.

Border

According to the Pentagon’s announcement, the additional troops will assist in securing points of entry and provide support in migrant holding facilities.

These facilities will include the one in Donna, Texas that Vice President Mike Pence visited last week.

A report this month by the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general cited unsanitary living conditions in holding facilities, and Democrats have seized on conditions in the facilities to attack the Trump Administration for running “concentration camps” (though some of these same politicians have seized on the opportunity for their own personal PR purposes).

Mexico has also recently deployed more troops to its side of the border, as President Trump’s tariff threats still loom large over the bilateral relationship between the two neighboring countries.

The deployment comes as the Trump Administration is trying to push through a policy that would restrict which migrants are allowed to declare asylum by requiring them to declare asylum in at least one country during their route to the US.

END

Another derivative players sees its banking and fixed income revenue plummet

(zerohedge)

Morgan Stanley Equity, FICC Trading, iBanking Revenues Tumble

The good news: Morgan Stanley does not have the balance sheet to engage in net interest income, unlike its big bank peers, so it could not report a decline in Net Interest Margin, which was enough to hit the stocks of Citi JPM and BofA.

The bad news: Morgan Stanley is very much reliant on institutional flow and trading, and it was here that the bank report sharp revenue declines, similar to Goldman, although unlike Goldman, Morgan Stanley did not have a hyperactive prop trading (investing and lending) group to offset the decline in flow.

So what did Morgan Stanley, the last of the big US banks to disclose Q2 earnings, report this morning? Like most other banks, MS also beat on the top and bottom line, reporting revenues of $10.244BN, below the $10.61BN from a year ago but above the $10.09BN expected and the 6th consecutive quarter of revenue rising above $10BN. EPS of $1.23 also beat expectations of $1.16, but declined from $1.30 in Q2 2018. As revenue dipped, so did expenses, with compensation expense dropping by $90 million to $4.531BN in Q2.

The company also increased its quarterly dividend to $0.35 per share;and announced share repurchase of up to $6.0 billion through the second quarter of 2020, an increase of approximately $1.3 billion. It also repurchased $1.2 billion in stock in Q2.

 

That was the good news. The bad news emerges when looking at the bank’s all important trading desk, the biggest on Wall Street. The overall “Institutional Securities” group reported net revenues for Q2 of $5.1 billion compared with $5.7 billion a year ago, as every single trading division saw revenue decline in Q2.

Of note, the bank posted a sharp 15% drop in equities-trading revenue, the biggest decline among major U.S. banks, which was driven by “lower revenues in the financing business reflecting lower client balances and realized spreads.” Commenting on the drop, this is what CFO Jon Pruzan said:

“We’re No. 1 in the world, and we had a very strong quarter. Some of our competitors are coming from a weaker position from a year ago,” he said. “Some of these percentages don’t give you the right story. We did $2.13 billion of revenues, we’ve done over $2 billion a quarter, the first and second quarters, for a while now. No one else has done this, a competitor did this for the first time in a long time yesterday.”

“It looks like the wallet’s down coming off a strong first half last year and we would expect to maintain our market share in this type of environment.”

Here is a summary of the key segment revenues:

  • Equity Sales and Trading: $2.13BN, down -15% from $2.470BN,  Exp. $2.27BN
  • FICC Sales and Trading: $1.13BN, down -19% from $1.389BN, Exp. $1.29BN
  • Investment Banking: $1.472BN, down -13% from $1.699, Exp. $1.44BN

Morgan Stanley has now reported 3 consecutive quarterly declines in the FICC business, traditionally the most lucrative, and highest profit segment.

The bank’s fixed-income trading also dropped more than rivals in the second quarterslipping 18%, compared with analysts’ estimates of a 7% drop, and was blamed “on a decline in interest rates and lower volatility, as well as a subdued level of structured transactions. The net revenues decline was partially offset by increases in credit products on strong client activity.”

Investment banking had a drop across deals and underwriting for debt that was worse than expected, while equity underwriting surpassed estimates. Specifically, fees from underwriting bond and loan deals, meanwhile, tumbled 22% to $420 million, below analysts’ estimates for $452 million.  Equity Capital Markets was a bright spot, with revenues of $546 million, better than last year’s $541 million, and beating expectations of a revenue drop.

 

Other, less market reliant, results from MS were generally better than expected, such as 2Q net interest incomew, which rose 14% to $1.03 billion, above the estimate $991.6 million,

A notable bright spot – Morgan Stanley posted a surprise jump in revenue in its wealth management unit. The bank generated $4.41 billion of revenue there, 2% higher than last year, and far better than the 9% drop expected.

Commenting on the results, CEO Jim Gorman said “We reported solid quarterly results across all our businesses. Firmwide revenues were over $10 billion and we produced an ROE within our target range, demonstrating the stability of our  franchise. We remain focused on serving our clients and pursuing growth opportunities while diligently managing expenses.”

Others were less sanguine, with Bloomberg analysts stating that “the outlook for trading revenue is relatively soft, in our view, based on global peer reports so far. Morgan Stanley’s equities trading result faces a higher hurdle after a beat and gain at Goldman Sachs amid misses and declines for other peers, with the market-share opportunity critical. A 36% jump in BofA equity fees is a highlight among broadly better results.”

Overall, this was a poor quarter for Morgan Stanley on the banking and trading front, because as Bloomberg notes, “analysts had been pricing in some weakness here but not as much as this.”

The stock, however, took it all well, and has barely moved since the report.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries

Epstein lies about his Austrian passport

 

(zerohedge)

Epstein Lied About Austrian Passport Under Different Name According To New Court Filing

An Austrian passport found in Jeffrey Epstein’s 21,000 square-foot Manhattan townhome, containing Epstein’s photograph but listing a different name, contains customs stamps indicating that he used it to enter at least four countries, – contradicting a defense argument that it was only on hand in the event of a hijacking.

In a late Wednesday court filing, US Attorney Geoffrey Berman writes “The defendant’s July 16, 2019 letter asserts: “[A]s for the Austrian passport the government trumpets, it expired 32 years ago. And the government offers nothing to suggest — and certainly no evidence — that Epstein ever used it.”

Berman rebuts the assertion, writing: “In fact, the passport contains numerous ingress and egress stampsincluding stamps that reflect use of the passport to enter France, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia in the 1980s.

 

“The Government further notes that the defendant’s submission does not address how the defendant obtained the foreign passport and, more concerning, the defendant has still not disclosed to the Court whether he is a citizen or legal permanent resident of a country other than the United States.” 

On Wednesday, Epstein attorney Marc Fernich wrote in a supplemental filing arguing for why Epstein should be granted house arrest, telling the court that “Epstein – an affluent member of the Jewish faith – acquired the passport in the 1980s, when hijackings were prevalent, in connection to Middle East travel. The passport was for personal protection in the event of travel to dangerous areas,only to be presented to potential kidnapers, hijackers or terrorists should violent episodes occur.

This was a lie, and should weigh heavily on Judge Richard M. Berman’s Thursday decision over whether or not Epstein should live in the lap of luxury while awaiting trial on charges of sex-trafficking minors.

END

Omar and trump at war with each other

(zerohedge)

 

Circus Mueller Is Delayed

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

The circus will be coming to town a week later, but not to worry, the show will go on longer and there will be many added attractions, including a full troop of 800-pound gorillas and an entire herd of 8000-pound elephants in the room. And once the balancing acts, the clowns and the ferocious beasts pack up and move on, America might find itself without a Democratic Party, or at least one it would recognize.

The circus is the testimony of Robert Mueller before the House Judiciary (extended to 3 hours) and Intelligence Committees (2 hours). The Democrats will aim to use Mueller’s words to finally achieve their long desired impeachment of Donald Trump. But is there anyone who’s not a US Democrat who thinks that is realistic? House Speaker Nancy Pelosi doesn’t seem to think so.

In order for the Dems to get their wish, Mueller would have to say a lot of things that are not in his report. It all appears to hang on the interpretation of his assessment that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted, which the Dems take to mean that there actually was a crime that could -or should- be prosecuted.

It’s not clear why the hearing was delayed from July 17 to 24, but don’t be surprised if it has to do with US District Judge Dabney Friedrich’s decision that Mueller must stop talking in public about a case that is in front of her, because his words might prejudice a jury. That is the case that Mueller brought in February 2018 against Internet Research Agency, Concord Management, their owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin (aka Putin’s cook), and 12 of his employees.

Mueller thought he could get away with presenting a case against them because they would not show up, but Prigozhin did hire a major law firm. Ironically, Friedrich has reportedly also decided that the lawyers cannot talk about the case to their own client(s). She hasn’t thrown out the case or anything, she’s simply told everyone including Mueller to stop discussing it in public.

So it’s quite possible that once the House Democrats figured this out (the decision stems from May 28 but was unsealed only on July 1), they had to change strategy. Mueller has been barred from saying a single word about it, including in the House.

In his report, Mueller tried to establish a link between the Russian firms and the Kremlin, but never proved any such link. They are accused of meddling in the 2016 election through emails and social media posts, an accusation that looks shakier by the day.

With that part of his report out of the way, what is left for him to talk about? He himself already gave up on the whole collusion narrative, which would appear to leave only obstruction. Well, there’s the Steele dossier, but with John Solomon blowing another gaping hole in ityesterday, that may not be the wisest topic to discuss on the House floor. By now, only the very faithful still believe in the dossier.

The Republicans surely don’t, and they also happen to be House members, and get to ask questions of Mueller on the 24th. The spectacle last night where Nancy Pelosi insisted on calling Trump a racist was nutty (you don’t do that in the House), but the Mueller hearings promise to be much much more nuts still.

In the background a second investigation is playing out: DOJ IG Michael Horowitz has been probing if DOJ or FBI officials abused their powers to spy on the Trump campaign. His report has been delayed, if reports are correct, because Christopher Steele at the very last minute agreed to testify. Those talks apparently were long and detailed. Wonder what he had to say.

And there’s a third probe too: AG Barr has tasked John Durham, the US attorney for Connecticut, to follow up on the Horowitz report and look at whether officials at the CIA, the NSA, and/or foreign intelligence agencies (think MI6), violated protocols or statutes.

That case is about whether the FISA court was misled to secure a warrant to put Trump campaign aide Carter Page under surveillance. It can also take a new look at the text messages between Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, messages that Trump tweeted about on Saturday: “This is one of the most horrible abuses of all. Those texts between gaga lovers would have told the whole story. Illegal deletion by Mueller. They gave us “the insurance policy.”

The deletion reportedly may have been accidental. But it does set the tone. The door is wide open for the Republicans to go after Mueller. And he knows it, always has. He never wanted the hearings, he said it was all in his report. But the Dems wanted more, they want Mueller to say Trump is guilty of obstruction (of a probe that perhaps should never have taken place).

Personally, I wonder whether a Republican congressman/woman will have the guts to ask Mueller why he refused to talk to Julian Assange, the most obvious person for him to talk to in the whole wide world. But since the GOP hates Assange as much as the Dems, I don’t have high hopes of that happening.

What they certainly will ask is when he knew his probe wasn’t going anywhere. And if that was perhaps as much as a whole year before he presented his report. The Dems will tear into Mueller looking for obstruction. Like: if Trump were not the president, would you sue him? Problem with that is none of this would have happened if Trump were just a citizen.

But I lean towards Ray McGovern’s take, who says thatthe circus may not come to town on July 24 either. Because there’s no there there (something Peter Strzok himself said about the Steele dossier), and because the Dems know this is their last shot at glory. And the GOP doesn’t mind another week or so of preparation.

Since the Democrats, the media, and Mueller himself all have strong incentive to “make the worst case appear the better” (one of the twin charges against Socrates), they need time to regroup and circle the wagons. The more so, since Mueller’s other twin charge — Russian hacking of the DNC — also has been shown, in a separate Court case, to be bereft of credible evidence. No, the incomplete, redacted, second-hand “forensics” draft that former FBI Director James Comey decided to settle for from the Democratic National Committee-hired CrowdStrike firm does not qualify as credible evidence.

Both new developments are likely to pose a strong challenge to Mueller. On the forensics, Mueller decided to settle for what his former colleague Comey decided to settle for from CrowdStrike, which was hired by the DNC despite it’s deeply flawed reputation and well known bias against Russia. In fact, the new facts — emerging, oddly, from the U.S. District Court, pose such a fundamental challenge to Mueller’s findings that no one should be surprised if Mueller’s testimony is postponed again.

And I was serious when I said before that once the Mueller hearings are done, “America might find itself without a Democratic Party, or at least one it would recognize”. Because if and when the Mueller circus fails to provide the impeachment dream (try elections!), where are they going to go, what else is there to do?

They’ve been clamoring for impeachment for collusion (big fail), for obstruction (Mueller wouldn’t have it) and now racism, but that is merely based on interpretation of tweets. Nancy Pelosi wrote about ‘women of color’, not Donald Trump.

America needs a strong Democratic party, and it certainly doesn’t have one right now. The Dems should be calling for an end to regime change wars, that is a popular theme among their voters. But they don’t, because guess where their money comes from. They are in a very deep identity crisis, and Trump just has to pick them off one by one. They should look at themselves, not at him. Do these people ever do strategy?

*  *  *

Support The Automatic Earth on Patreon.

end

Fasten you seat belt on this one:  All of Epstein`s associates are preparing for the worst as a massive document dump is imminent

(zerohedge)

“It’s Going To Be Staggering”: Epstein Associates Prepare For Worst As Massive Document Dump Imminent

As the Jeffrey Epstein case continues to unfold, a laundry list of celebrities, business magnates and socialites who have flown anywhere near the registered sex offender’s orbit are now tainted with pedo-polonium. Many of them, such as Bill Clinton, Ehud Barak, and Victoria’s Secret boss Les Wexner have sought to distance themselves from Epstein and his activities – however their attempts have fallen on deaf ears considering their extensive ties to the pedophile.

As Vanity Fair‘s Gabriel Sherman notes, “The questions about Epstein are metastasizing much faster than they can be answered: Who knew what about Epstein’s alleged abuse? How, and from whom, did Epstein get his supposed $500 million fortune? Why did Acosta grant Epstein an outrageously lenient non-prosecution agreement? (And what does it mean that Acosta was reportedly told Epstein “belonged to intelligence”?)”

Also illuminating is a statement by attorney Brad Edwards, who said during a Wednesday press conference seated next to Epstein accuser Courtneey Wild that “There were other business associates of Mr. Epstein’s who engaged in improper sexual misconduct at one or more of his homes. We do know that,” adding “In due time the names are going to start coming out.

What’s more, the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit will release of approximately 2,000 pages of documents, likely over the next several days, which may reveal sex crimes committed by “numerous prominent American politicians, powerful business executives, foreign presidents, a well-known prime minister, and other world leaders,” according to the court’s three-judge panel.

The documents were filed during a civil defamation lawsuit brought by Epstein accuser Virginia Roberts Giuffre, a former Mar-a-Lago locker-room attendant, against Epstein’s former girlfriend and alleged madam, Ghislaine Maxwell. “Nobody who was around Epstein a lot is going to have an easy time now. It’s all going to come out,” said Giuffre’s lawyer David Boies. Another person involved with litigation against Epstein told me: “It’s going to be staggering, the amount of names. It’s going to be contagion numbers.” –Vanity Fair

Other famous names associated with Epstein include LinkedIn cofounder Reid HoffmanElon Musk, and Mark Zuckerberg, who Musk introduced to the registered sex-offender. Zuckerberg spokesman told Vanity Fair “Mark met Epstein in passing one time at a dinner honoring scientists that was not organized by Epstein,” adding “Mark did not communicate with Epstein again following the dinner.”

Musk told the magazine “I don’t recall introducing Epstein to anyone, as I don’t know the guy well enough to do so, Epstein is obviously a creep and Zuckerberg is not a friend of mine. Several years ago, I was at his house in Manhattan for about 30 minutes in the middle of the afternoon with Talulah [Riley], as she was curious about meeting this strange person for a novel she was writing. We did not see anything inappropriate at all, apart from weird art. He tried repeatedly to get me to visit his island. I declined.”

Linette Lopez

@lopezlinette

Uh, this is Jeffrey Epstein’s “friend” and alleged madam Ghislaine Maxwell with @elonmusk at the Oscars in 2014. These people were everywhere I suppose…

108 people are talkingView image on Twitter about this

According to one source, Epstein had a steady stream of who’s who’s flowing into his Manhattan mansion, including Bill Gates, Larry Summers, and Steve Bannon.

“Jeffrey collected people. That’s what he did,” the source told Vanity Fair.

Thus far, the name most publicly associated with Epstein’s alleged crimes is famed lawyer Alan Dershowitz, who’s been waging a public battle with David Boies for years. In April, Boies’s client Giuffre sued Dershowitz for defamation after Dershowitz called her a liar (a strategy similar to that of seven of Bill Cosby’s accusers). In the days since the FBI arrested Epstein at Teterboro Airport a week and a half ago, Dershowitz has been going on television and dialing up friends and reporters to profess his innocence and label Giuffre and Boies liars. “I want everything to come out! I’m not afraid of anything because I did nothing wrong,” Dershowitz told me on the afternoon of July 15.

He called me a minute after I had emailed him for comment. He said he’d been friends with Epstein since 1996, when they were introduced at a party on Martha’s Vineyard by Lynn Forester de Rothschild. “She begged me to meet him. She told me, ‘here’s this smart academic.’” A few days later, Epstein invited Dershowitz to Les Wexner’s 59th birthday party at Wexner’s mansion in New Albany, Ohio. “It’s a tradition that Jeff invited the smartest person he met that year. He told them I was the smartest.” They remained close for years. Dershowitz strenuously denied ever participating in Epstein’s underage sex ring and said he’d only been in Epstein’s presence with his wife. “I got one massage!” he told me. “It was from a 50-year-old Russian woman named Olga. And I kept my shorts on. I didn’t even like it. I’m not a massage guy.” –Vanity Fair

DC on edge

“Epstein bragged about his contacts in Washington,” said attorney David Boies.

According to the report, “One theory circulating among prominent Republicans is that Epstein was a Mossad agent. Another is that the George W. Bush White House directed Acosta not to prosecute Epstein to protect Prince Andrew on behalf of the British government.”

“The royal family did everything they could to try and discredit the Prince Andrew stuff,” said Boies. “When we tried to follow up with anything, we were stonewalled. We wanted to interview him, they were unwilling to do anything.

And now we await those documents. Meanwhile, Epstein’s bail hearing is scheduled for 11:30 a.m. on Thursday.

end
Epstein a danger to all and thus Judge Berman denied bail. He will remain in a tiny cell until his hearing
zerohedge)

Epstein Denied Bail; Financier Will Remain In Tiny Cell Until Hearing

Jeffrey Epstein was denied bail on Thursday despite his legal team’s best efforts to convince SDNY Judge Richard M. Berman that he wasn’t a flight risk.

Kevin Corke

@kevincorke

is denied bail

Kevin Corke

@kevincorke

Judge Berman cites evidence of intimidation and evidence of Epstein missing sex-offender check-ins.

Also cites “sexually explicit photos” and “expired Austrian passport” with Epstein’s photo, not his name, and a Saudi residence.

Adam Klasfeld

@KlasfeldReports

Berman cites danger to others and to the community.

That fills more than 10 pages of the decision and order, and it is the “heart” of the decision, Berman says.

Adam Klasfeld

@KlasfeldReports

Berman:

“I find that the government has established danger to others and to the community by clear and convincing evidence,” he says, also finding risk of flight by “preponderance of the evidence.”

“I doubt that any bail package can overcome danger to the community.”

Epstein’s attorneys offered a series of concessions and guarantees, such as ‘deregistering’ his vehicles and aircraft, wearing a GPS monitoring device, and installing surveillance cameras. Prosecutors, meanwhile, successfully argued that Epstein’s vast wealth and international connections made him a prime candidate to flee the country.

In arguing to keep Mr. Epstein detained, the government cited the fact that during a search of Mr. Epstein’s Manhattan mansion after his arrest, law enforcement agents found a locked safe containing an Austrian passport, more than $70,000 in cash and 48 loose diamonds. The passport, which is now expired, showed a photograph of Mr. Epstein but contains a different name and lists his residence as Saudi Arabia, prosecutors said.

Stamps in the passport showed it was used to enter France, Spain, the U.K. and Saudi Arabia in the 1980s, according to the government. Prosecutors said the passport shows Mr. Epstein knows how to obtain false travel documents and assume foreign identities. -Bloomberg

The 66-year-old registered sex offender will remain in the Metropolitan Correctional Center (MCC) in lower Manhattan until his trial on charges of sex-trafficking minors, where he has been held since his July 6 arrest.

“When you have someone that’s allegedly a sexual predator like Jeffrey Epstein, he’ll need to be in protective custody,” said lawyer Andrew Laufer, who has represented MCC inmates. And because of Epstein’s high profile, he’s likely in solitary confinement.

He faces a maximum sentence of 45 years in prison if convicted.

And as Bloomberg points out, “The bail decision means Mr. Epstein is likely to spend more time in jail awaiting trial in New York than he did in Florida after pleading guilty in 2008 to two state counts following an investigation into similar allegations of sex abuse against minors.”

end

A joke:
Progressives who still want a minimum wage bill is threatening to kill the bill over overtures to the Republicans
(zerohedge)

‘Progressive’ Dems Threaten To Kill Minimum Wage Bill To Spite Moderates

If you have been tempted to dismiss the growing progressive insurgency within the Democratic caucus as a mirage produced by a handful of outspoken voices – as Nancy Pelosi has suggested – well, think again.

In what appears to be one of the most deliberate examples yet of the Democrats progressive caucus sabotaging the party’s own agenda because it didn’t get exactly what it wanted, the Hill reports that some House Dems are prepared to scuttle a bill to raise the national minimum wage to $15 an hour if a procedural motion from the Republicans is added to the bill.

Tlaib

It’s meant to be a gesture to moderate Democrats who have sometimes voted with Republicans on procedural issues: The progressives are in no mood to compromise.

Reps. Pramila Jayapal and Mark Pocan, the co-chairs of the House Progressive Caucus, issued a statement accusing the Republicans of supporting a “disingenuous” motion that would amount to a “poison pill”.

“We have no doubt that Congressional Republicans will try to divide the Democratic Caucus with a disingenuous Motion to Recommit. It’s up to all of us to stand unified and reject their bad faith effort to undermine this bill,” Pocan and Jayapal said in a statement.

“After consulting with our Members this week, we are confident that any bill that includes a poison pill Republican Motion to Recommit will lack the votes to pass on the House Floor.”

According to the Huffington Post, a vote on the minimum wage is slated for Thursday. However, even if progressives don’t kill it, the bill will face an almost certain death in the Senate. The federal minimum wage is currently $7.25 an hour, and it hasn’t been raised since 2009. It’s the effective minimum wage in 19 states.

END
There will be no new charges to Trump or anybody else in the “hush money” probe. As we had outlined to you previously that there would no charges brought onto Trump on this matter
(zerohedge)

Feds Signal No New Charges In Trump ‘Hush-Money’ Probe, Cohen Lawyer Displeased

If you glimpsed at the headlines across the mainstream media, you would think a “smoking gun” had been discovered in the newly released unredacted documents related to possible campaign finance violations and ‘hush-money’ payments.

 

As NBC News reports, the documents, released Thursday, describe a “series of calls, text messages, and emails” between Cohen, Trump, Trump campaign aide Hope Hicks, Keith Davidson – an attorney for the woman, porn star Stormy Daniels – and David Pecker, an executive of the company that published the National Enquirer.

The unsealed documents say that Hicks called Cohen on the night of Oct. 8, 2016 at 7:20 p.m – the first time she had called him in weeks – and that Trump joined the call seconds later. The conversation lasted four minutes. Hicks and Cohen spoke privately after Trump left the call and, after that, Cohen called Pecker.

Moments after that conversation ended, Cohen received a phone call from Dylan Howard, the chief content officer of American Media. After that call, Cohen rang Hicks back, ended that call, and then took a call from Pecker. At 8:03 p.m., according to the unsealed court documents, Cohen called Trump. They spoke for eight minutes.

Other unsealed documents include search warrants, affidavits and court papers related to the case. Most of those were previously released with heavier redactions.

The release of the previously redacted documents comes a day after the federal judge in the case disclosed that prosecutors had concluded their probe into Cohen’s campaign finance crimes and ordered the release of search warrants tied to the case.

Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer and fixer, is serving a three-year prison sentence for a slew of crimes, including breaking campaign finance laws by hiding payments to two women who claimed they had affairs with Trump.

However, buried deep in most of the stories is this simple fact – Prosecutors have not announced any further charges beyond Cohen, a clear indication the inquiry will be shut down with no additional action.

Don’t think that is true?

Ask Cohen’s attorney, ex-Clinton confidante Lanny Davis, who expressed displeasure with prosecutors decision to drop the proceedings in his own statement issued Wednesday evening.

Case closed? Why is Michael Cohen – after all his voluntary cooperation and testimony that Mr. Mueller said was credible and went to “core issues” and all the information and documents he voluntarily provided to prosecutors and to congress – the only member of the Trump company to be prosecuted and imprisoned?” Davis said in the statement.

“Especially since prosecutors found that virtually all of Michael’s admitted crimes were done at the direction of and for the benefit of Donald Trump? Why?”

As Bloomberg notes, prosecutors have said that at least two unidentified Trump company executives approved improper payments to Cohen. Allen Weisselberg, the Trump Organization’s chief financial officer, testified before the grand jury under a grant of limited immunity.

So another ‘win’ for Trump?

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Another warning to the Fed appeared on Wednesday when Bank of America cut its income growth outlook.  WFC, JPM and C showed lower net interest margins earlier in the week.  B of A said lower short-term rates and higher funding costs in global markets were negative factors.

B of A admitted that EMEA derivatives affected equity trading profits and FICC (-10%) was hurt by “lower client activity among many products.”  Like other big banks, consumer banking (+3%) saved the day.  Nothing like record-high credit card interest and other fees to pad the bottom line!

BofA Counters Trading Slump with Gains in Consumer Banking

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-consumer-business-drives-record-110742580.html

Despite sharply lower mortgage rates, US June Housing Starts declined 0.9% (-.07% exp) due to weakness in multi-home construction.  Permits tumbled 6.1%; +0.1% was expected.  Single-family home starts increased 3.5%.  Multi-family home started plunged 9.2% while permits tanked 16.8%

CEO of railroad giant CSX says the economy is the ‘most puzzling’ he’s seen as stock plummets

  • CSX earned $1.08 per share in the second quarter, below the $1.11 earnings per share Wall Street analysts were expecting, according to Refinitiv.
  • Revenue also fell short, with $3.06 billion reported versus the estimate of $3.14 billion.
  • CSX said it expects revenue to fall as much as 2% in 2019, well below a previous forecast of an increase of 1% to 2%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/ceo-of-railroad-giant-csx-says-the-economy-is-the-most-puzzling-hes-seen-as-stock-plummets.html

CSX’s ugly Q2 results and 2019 guidance induced the DTJA to tumble 387.66 or 3.59%.

Europe Car Sales Extend Downward Spiral with Worst Drop of 2019

Regional 7.9% decline follows Daimler profit warning last week

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-17/european-car-sales-resume-downward-spiral-with-sharp-june-drop

Central banks, including the Fed, are so petrified of the massive debt that they fostered; they are looking to the failed BoJ for guidance!  You can’t make this up!  CBs’ panic over any recession is palpable.

FT: [Kyle] Bass is betting that the Fed will slash interest rates to just above zero next year as the US economy slides into a recession, forcing the Fed to restart QE, and possibly even consider more radicalalternatives like buying equities… “As we have all learned, once an economy falls into the tractor beam of zero rates, it’s almost impossible to escape them,”…

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-17/were-never-going-go-away-zero-presenting-kyle-bass-latest-trade

The House voted 332-to-95 to table an impeachment resolution against Trump.  What now Schiff?

 

The NYT: Trump Sets the 2020 Tone: Like 2016, Only This Time ‘the Squad’ Is Here

“He’s framing the election as a clash of civilizations,” said Charlie Sykes, a conservative writer who is critical of Mr. Trump. The argument Mr. Trump is making is both strategic and cynical, he said. “They’re coming for you. They hate you. They despise America. They are not you.”…

     While the Democrats were voting Tuesday to condemn the president’s attacks against the four women as racist, Trump campaign officials, by contrast, were trying to cast Monday as a landmark day for the Democratic Party — the day that the progressive “Squad” became the de facto leaders of their party…

     The strategy is reminiscent of how President Richard M. Nixon and the Republican Party tried to frame their fight with Democrats during the 1972 elections around questions of patriotism and loyalty… [Nixon won 49 of 50 states in 1972 and captured 60.7% of the vote]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/16/us/politics/trump-election-squad.html

 

Trump at rally last night: “A vote for any Democrat in 2020 is a vote for radical socialism & the destruction of the American Dream… Their party is afflicted with an ideological sickness that protects foreign borders but refuses to protect our own.”

 

@realDonaldTrump: New Poll: The Rasmussen Poll, one of the most accurate in predicting the 2016 Election, has just announced that “Trump” numbers have recently gone up by four points, to 50%. Thank you to the vicious young Socialist Congresswomen. America will never buy your act!

 

@EmeraldRobinson on @OANN: I just asked @realDonaldTrump whether Ilhan Omar would be investigated for alleged marriage fraud. His reply: “There’s a lot of talk about the fact that she was married to her brother. I know nothing about it.”

 

Trump slams progressive congresswomen at fiery ‘MAGA’ rally in North Carolina

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-holds-maga-rally-in-north-carolina-after-feuds-with-house-dem-squad-pelosi

 

WaPo: Majority of Mexicans say immigrants are a burden on their country, favor deporting migrants who travel through Mexico to reach U.S., poll finds

     More than 6 in 10 Mexicans say migrants are a burden on their country because they take jobs and benefits that should belong to Mexicans. A 55 percent majority supports deporting migrants who travel through Mexico to reach the United States.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/unauthorized-immigrants-face-public-backlash-in-mexico-survey-finds/2019/07/16/f7fc5d12-a75e-11e9-a3a6-ab670962db05_story.html

 

OAN’s @jennfranconews: Iran says its ballistic missile program is ‘non-negotiable’, after media reports surfaced suggesting the country was open to talks with the U.S.

 

Now that Gen. Flynn changed lawyers, the case against him is unraveling.

 

Mike Flynn Judge Hauls Former Lawyers Back Into Court; Accused of Withholding Case Files

Judge Emmet Sullivan, an Obama appointee, scheduled a status conference for August 27 at 11 a.m., and has invited a Senior Legal Ethics Counsel to weigh in on the conversation… Attorney Robert Barnes raises the question: “Why was Covington firm ever representing Flynn given it knew it might be a material witness in a case related to Flynn? Did the government knowingly profit from this conflict?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-17/mike-flynn-judge-hauls-former-lawyers-back-court-accused-withholding-case-files

 

@AnnCoulter: Manhattan D.A. Cyrus Vance’s office argued for a DOWNWARD departure of Jeffrey Epstein’s sex offender status in 2011.  Judge said she’d never seen anything like it.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/09/us/jeffrey-epstein-sex-offender/index.html

 

The House voted 230-198 to hold House Attorney General Barr, Commerce Secretary Ross in contempt for failing to turn over documents concerning the census citizenship question for the Census – even though the DoJ gave Congress 17,000 documents.  According to the DoJ: “Many documents at issue with this particular vote have been held privileged by a federal court.”

https://saraacarter.com/doj-pelosis-contempt-vote-on-census-is-nothing-more-than-a-political-stunt/

well that about does it for tonight

I will see you, FRIDAY night.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: