JULY 19/BANKERS CONTAIN GOLD AND SILVER TODAY//GOLD DOWN $1,00 TO $1425.80//SILVER REMAINS FLAT AT $16.17// A MASSIVE 11.44 TONNE S OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSITED INTO THE GLD//A MASSIVE 3.276 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT OF SILVER INTO THE SLV TODAY//BIG NEWS LATE IN THE DAY, IRAN PIRATES A UK OIL VESSEL IN THE GULF AND COMMANDEERS IT INTO IRANIAN WATERS//BIG TROUBLE IN THE CHINESE REPO (COLLATERAL) MARKET//PAY MORE ATTENTION TO RICHARD CLARIDA THAN TO WILLIAMS//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD: $1425.80  DOWN $1.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

Silver:  $16.17 UP 0 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1426.00

 

silver:  $16.21

 

YOUR DATA…

 

COMEX DATA

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 27/51

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,426.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/18/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 07/22/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 19
661 C JP MORGAN 27
690 C ABN AMRO 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 20 24
905 C ADM 10
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 51 51
MONTH TO DATE: 921

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 51 NOTICE(S) FOR 5100 OZ (0.1586 tonnes

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  921 NOTICES FOR 92100 OZ  (2.8646 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

15 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 75,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3948 for   19,740,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10,371 DOWN 312 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10570 DOWN 254

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1931 CONTRACTS FROM 233,360 DOWN TO 231,429 DESPITE THE 24 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME QUITE A BIT OF COMEX CONTRACT SHORT COVERING.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 3952 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3952 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3952 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3952 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 19.76 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 24 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

21.045 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY

 

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT WITH ZERO SUCCESS..AND ZERO SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY:

24,489 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 24,489 CONTRACTS) OR 122.445 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1749 CONTRACTS OR 8.746 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY:  122.445 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.49% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1280.05   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1931, DESPITE THE 24 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3952 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG  SIZED: 2021 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 3952 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1931  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.17 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.157 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 166% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 15 NOTICE(S) FOR 75,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 21.045 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 21,730 CONTRACTS, TO 642,851 ACCOMPANYING THE  $5.55 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION HAS NOW COMMENCED FOR GOLD….

WE ARE NOW AROUND 10,000 CONTACTS BELOW THE RECORD OF 655,000 SET MANY YEARS AGO.

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 12,460 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 12,285 CONTRACTS, SEPT>  175 CONTRACTS, DEC = 0  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 642,851,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC, CRIMINAL AND TOTALLY INSANE SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 34,190 CONTRACTS: 21,730 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 12,460 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 34,190 CONTRACTS OR 3,419,000 OZ OR 106.34 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $5.55 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT GOOD GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 106.34  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.

 

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE WILL WITNESS THE MORPHING OF OUR SPREADERS OUT OF SILVER AND INTO GOLD AS THE JULY MONTH PROCEEDS INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST. 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 114,987 CONTRACTS OR 11,398,700 oz OR 358,12 TONNES (14 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8213 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 358.12 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 358.12/3550 x 100% TONNES =10.08% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3284.47  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 21,730 WITH THE STRONG PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($5.55)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GIGANTIC SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 12,460 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12,460 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 34,190 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

12,460 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 21,730 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 106.34 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED ACCOMPANYING THE  GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.55 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAS NOW COMMENCED WITH SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD AS  THE MONTH PROCEEDS/

 

 

 

we had:  51 notice(s) filed upon for 5100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY//

THIS IS TELLING!!

 

A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 11.44  TONNES

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

A MONSTROUS 3.276 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT INTO THE SLV.

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1931 CONTRACTS from 233,360 DOWN TO 231,429 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN GOLD AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN SILVER

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JULY: 0 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 3952  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3952 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1931  CONTRACTS TO THE 3952 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2021 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10.105 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY: 2.660 MILLION OZ  FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 21.045 MILLION OZ STANDING SO FAR.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 3952 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.02 POINTS OR 0.79%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 303.74 POINTS OR 1.07%   /The Nikkei closed UP 420.75 POINTS OR 2.00%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .75%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8776 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8803 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8776 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3c CHINA

i)One little slip shows how China is badly fudging data.  China’s housing bubble has basically burst

(zerohedge)

ii)trouble in china’s dominant repo market where liquidity and lack of collateral concerns caused the overnight o the 4 day repo to climb to 1000%

(zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

Italian stock market and bonds falter with Salvini ready to call an election and severe his coalition partner , the left wing 5 star movement

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN

Iran releases dramatic footage of the Iranian Guard seizing the UAE oil tanker

(zerohedge)

ii)Iran’s version is that its drone arrived safely to its base.  It does not know what the Americans shot down if anything!
(zerohedge)

ii)RUSSIA

This does not look promising: Russia takes 3 out of 4 nuclear reactors off line and this is the 2nd seirous incident in under a week
(zerohedge)

iii)RUSSIA/TURKEY

Trump is surely not going to like this…Russia offers Turkey its version of the F35: Su 35 jets the day after the USA threw out Turkey

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)Michael Snyder’s assessment on the Iranian issue as to what has happened and the danger that we are in

(Michael Snyder)

ii)Michael Every’s global outlook today

(zerohedge/Michael Every/Rabobank)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Willem Middlekoop is a terrific advocate for gold.  In his latest essay he discusses the eventuality that gold will play a major roll in world finances

(Willem Middlekoop/GATA)

ii)Mnuchin (a doorknob) explains that USA dollar policy will not change until it changes…brilliant

(Bloomberg/GATA)

iii)In French Guyana 3 French soldiers have died during a raid on illegal gold mining\

(GATA)

iv)A good one from Foy writing for the London’s Financial Times.  Russia is very anxious to join the bypass and use Europe version of SWIFT.  This of course, hurts USA hegemony badly.

(London’s Financial Times/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Pay close attention to Clarida.  He also states that the Fed should not wait for the economy to downturn before undergoing massive QE

(zerohedge)

b)An absolute joke..pay no attention to this.  The Clarida statement is far more important\

(zerohedge)

c)Boeing

Just a start: Boeing takes a $4.9 billion charge.

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)The latest of the debt ceiling  talks

(zerohedge)

b)TRUMP’S approval ratings soar as he praises the “send her back” crowd and calls them “incredible patriots.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 21,730 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 645,835 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN OF $5.55 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 12,460 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 12,285 CONTRACTS: SEPT: 175   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  12,460 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 34,190 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 12,460 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 21,730 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. WE ARE NOW VERY CLOSE TO A COMMERCIAL FAILURE. NO DOUBT WE WILL HAVE SOME OF THESE LONGS CONVERT THEIR CONTRACTS TO PHYSICAL GOLD.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  34,190 CONTRACTS OR 3,419,000 OZ OR 106.34 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON  active contract month of JULY and here the open interest stands at 73 CONTRACTS as we GAINED 57 contracts.  We had 6 notices filed yesterday so we surprisingly  gained 63 contracts or an additional 6300 oz of gold  will stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the comex  as they will now try their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here. We usually witness queue jumping in silver immediately after first day notice but not gold.That has now changed for gold as we again witness queue jumping in the comex gold arena. The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI FELL by a 3043 contracts DOWN to 320,706. The next non active month is September and here the OI rose by 327 contracts up to 1106.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI rose by 1646 contracts up to 24,125.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 51 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  5100 OZ. (0.1586 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1931 CONTRACTS FROM 233,360 DOWN TO 231,429 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.  HERE WE HAVE 276 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 128 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 147 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 19 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 95,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. AFTER JULY WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST AND HERE WE GAINED 35 CONTRACTS UP TO 1183.  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 2324 CONTRACTS UP TO 161,425 CONTRACTS, AND IT WAS HERE THAT WE HAD OUR SHORT COVERING.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 15 notice(s) filed for 75,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 524,578  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  536,346  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JULY/GOLD

JULY 19/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 201.07 oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 2800.000

oz

???

 

HSBC

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
51 notice(s)
 5100 OZ
(0.1586 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
22 contracts
(2200 oz)
0.0684 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
921 notices
92100 OZ
2.8646 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into HSBC exactly: 2800.0000  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 2800.00  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ a tiny amount  arrived   today//but is it real???

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JULY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 51 contract(s) of which 27 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (921) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY. (73 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (51 x 100 oz per contract) equals 94300 OZ OR 2.933 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JULY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (921 x 100 oz)  + (73)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (51 x 100 oz )which equals 94,300 oz standing OR 2.933 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JULY.

We GAINED 63 contracts or an additional 6300 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.0438 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 2.933  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS. WE MAY EXPERIENCE FOR THE FIRST TIME A COMMERCIAL FAILURE AS WE APPROACH THE STRONG AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH.

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  322,825.827 oz or  10.0412 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,749,906.599 oz 241.05 tonnes

IN THE LAST 33 MONTHS 115 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
JULY 19 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,134,863.019 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
15
CONTRACT(S)
(75,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
261 contracts
 1,305,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3948 contracts

19,740,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into HSBC: 316,689.400  oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  316,689.400  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  29,604.565 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 600,634.310 oz

iii) Out of Delaware: 15,143.226 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 645,382.101  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  93.110 million

total dealer + customer silver:  307.104 million oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2019. contract month is represented by 15 contract(s) FOR 75,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3948 x 5,000 oz = 19,740,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY. (276) and the number of notices served upon today (15 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 3948 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (276) number of notices served upon today (15)x 5000 oz equals 21,045,000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.

WE GAINED 19 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 95,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS. 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 15 notice(s) filed for 75,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  172,238 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 157,364 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 157,364 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 786 million  OZ 112% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.46.% ((JULY 18/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.33% to NAV (JULY 18/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.46%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.14 TRADING 13.63/DISCOUNT 3.60

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: ANOTHER 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD REMOVED AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD AT THE COMEX/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.61 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

 

 

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JULY 19/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 814.62 tonnes

*IN LAST 627 TRADING DAYS: 120.14 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 527 TRADING DAYS: A NET 45.54 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.575 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

 

JULY 19/2019:

 

 

Inventory 346.980 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.24/ and libor 6 month duration 2.17

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .07

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.18%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.19

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

GoldCore

Silver Rallies to Its Highest in Over a Year, Plays ‘Catch Up’ to Gold’s Gains

19, July

Silver prices could hit $30 in the next 18 months.

Silver is on a tear. Up 1.4% yesterday with plenty more in the tank. We had been expecting silver to awaken in a strong move higher, almost as if it was caught napping, while the world watched gold push through previous boundaries with conviction.

Silver’s rise is likely more related to speculators moving in on what seemed to be cheap prices relative value to gold. We look at relative value by examining the ratio of gold prices to silver prices historically. The Gold Silver ratio had recently reached lofty heights near 100. That is to say you could buy 100 ounces of silver for the price of 1 ounce of gold.

Looking back historically this ratio would have been in the 16 – 25:1 range. Since the 1970’s a range of 40-80:1 was the norm. Every time it this ratio hit these highs it retraced as silver prices caught up with gold. Where gold led silver followed, rising twice as fast and sometimes falling even harder. Now we see history repeating itself yet again. The chart below shows the recent ratio performance, note the 200 Day Moving Average.

So where is it going? Well we don’t do speculation or predictions and we certainly don’t sell metals on the basis of profitable returns. We see both gold and silver working to stabilise diversified portfolios over the long term. See our musings on why storing gold and silver correctly matter.

A higher gold price will offset the effects that negative global economic headwinds have on your financial wealth. That being said if you don’t own gold and silver and you were planning on doing so, an idea on where the market is going in the medium term is useful. So here is one thesis…

Back of an envelope calculations: We see silver possibly hitting highs of $30 within 18 months if the following were to happen:

1) Brexit fears manifest in a UK & EU recession: chances 75%

2) Worried about stalling global growth, Central Banks unleash coordinated QE 4 and continue printing of money, driving rates even more negative globally: chances 75%

3) Gold starts attracting speculative money pushing safe have bids up even higher to possibly circa $2,500: chances 70%

4) The gold silver ratio reverts back to its 200 day moving average of 86:1. Taking silver to $30.

If we enter into a full blown crisis like we did in 2009 with “blood on the streets”, we could see the ratio found then of 20:1 taking effect. If gold hits $2,500 that would suggest a silver price of $125 an ounce. In some estimates the inflation adjusted price of 1980 silver high is $600 an ounce.

Upside? Well you can figure that out…

(Warning this is a highly unlikely scenario and should not be part of any core investment thesis.)

Most speculators are very poor market timers and never execute optimally.

We prefer the broader long term approach. Our house view is that metals should make up no less then 10% of your investable assets (excluding your home and business) in normal times. If you believe we are not in normal times and downside risks are building or you are particularly worried about the risks in the broader market, you could increase this 10% allocation to a level you are comfortable with. As always confer with a trusted advisor before making bold moves.

In our case many of clients subscribe to the belief that the markets are underpinned by an official sector “pyramid scheme”, where money is simply printed and used to pay off old debts and pump up the broader markets, in many cases ignoring fundamental capitalist tenants like market pricing, supply demand etc. We see gold and silver as a key strategy in attaining personal sovereignty for the small investor. If you have any questions as to what is possibly coming down the tracks perhaps take a look at the the Central banks published plans to address the next banking crisis.

We see investors who naively entrust their deposits, which bear negative real interest rates, to banks (Hmmm?), as being utterly ill-prepared for what is very likely coming down the tracks. In this situation it is more than prudent to allocate at least 10% of their investable assets to safe haven assets such as gold and silver. Within this allocation we see 75% gold 25% silver as being a balanced holding, especially given silvers volatility.

Assets must be kept in allocated and segregated non bank vaulted storage in safe jurisdictions. Do not invest in ETF’s or any digital online pooled holdings (these are more suited for speculators), where you are lumped together with other investors. Your holdings must be segregated and allocated. This preserves your legal proximity to your holding and will possibly give you a much higher price then proxy metal investments that have significant counter-party risks.

If silver hits $30 or even $125 it will be just one silver lining in a dark economic cloud effecting all of our communities. Hang on to your hats!

-END-

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Willem Middlekoop is a terrific advocate for gold.  In his latest essay he discusses the eventuality that gold will play a major roll in world finances

(Willem Middlekoop/GATA)

With Willem Middelkoop essay, central bank forum takes a shine to gold

 Section: 

This essay by gold advocate and longtime GATA supporter Willem Middelkoop, author of the 2014 book “The Big Reset,” has top position today at the internet site of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London, an organization catering to government and central bank officials around the world. The essay acknowledges the longstanding policy of central banks and particularly the U.S. government to suppress the price of gold in favor of the dollar. That such an organization would not just publish such an essay but highlight it is amazing, an indication that the official sector is moving just as Middelkoop’s book outlines — toward a big reset of the world financial system restoring gold to its place as impartial money for a freer world.

* * *

Toward the New De-Facto Gold Standard

By Willem Middelkoop
Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, London
Thursday, July 18, 2019

https://www.omfif.org/analysis/commentary/2019/july/towards-new-de-facto…

Last year 22 central banks, situated largely to the east of Germany, bought the largest amount of gold since 1967, the year the London Gold Pool collapsed. The gold repatriations by many European countries of the last few years are another sign that we are reaching the end of four decades of monetary calm. This could bring about the largest monetary changes since the closing of the gold window by U.S. President Richard Nixon in 1971.

… 

The United States wants its fiat dollar system to prevail for as long as possible. It has every interest in preventing a “rush out of dollars toward gold,” as happened in the 1970s. Since then bankers have been trying to exercise control over the precious metal’s price. This war on gold has been ongoing for almost 100 years but gained traction in the 1960s with the forming of the London Gold Pool, whose members included the US, UK, Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, and Switzerland.

During meetings of central bank chiefs at the Bank for International Settlements in 1961, the eight participating countries agreed to make available a gold pool worth $270 million. This was focused on preventing the gold price from rising above $35 per troy ounce, as set during Bretton Woods, by selling official gold holdings from the central banks’ gold vaults.

However, in March 1968 the pool was disbanded because France would no longer co-operate. This signalled the start of a 13-year “bull market” and sent gold to more than $800 per troy ounce in 1980.

Today Washington may consider it useful to bring back gold to support the dollar. Some U.S. insiders have even been calling openly for a return to the old way of doing things. Neo-conservative Robert Zoellick, the former president of the World Bank, wrote an open letter to the Financial Times in 2010 entitled “Bring Back the Gold Standard.”

A 2012 study by the Chatham House gold task force suggested that the metal could be added to the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing right. One of the members of this task force was Lord Meghnad Desai, chair of the OMFIF advisers council. During a conference in Dubai he remarked, “We could ask that gold be nominated as part of the Special Drawing Right. That is one thing I think is quite likely to happen. This will be easier if China increases its official gold holdings.”

Beijing wants to increase its gold reserves in the shortest time possible to at least 8,000 tonnes. This would put China on par, in terms of its gold-to-GDP ratio, with the U.S. and European Union. It would open the way, should the need arise, for a possible joint US-EU-China gold revaluation to support the financial system.

Beijing must realize that the U.S. could surprise the world with a unilateral gold revaluation. Wikileaks revealed a cable, sent in early 2010 to Washington from the U.S. embassy in Beijing, which quoted a Chinese news report about the consequences of such a dollar devaluation: “If we use all of our foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. Treasury bonds, then when someday the Federal Reserve suddenly announces that the original 10 old dollars are now worth only one new dollar, and the new dollar is pegged to the gold — we will be dumbfounded.”

In recent years there have been numerous statements demonstrating China’s understanding of the “dark forces” suppressing the price of gold on Wall Street. Zhou Xiaochuan, then governor of the People’s Bank of China, revealed in a 2009 article that the Chinese recognise the hypocrisy of U.S. policy toward gold: “After the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, the gold standard, which had been in use for a century, collapsed. Under the influence of the dollar hegemony the stabilizing effect of gold was widely questioned; the ‘gold is useless’ discussion began to spread around the globe… Currently there are more and more people recognising that the ‘gold is useless’ story contains too many lies. Gold now suffers from a ‘smokescreen’ designed by the U.S., which stores 74% of global official gold reserves, to put down other currencies and maintain the dollar hegemony.”

Since then China and Russia have stopped buying U.S. Treasuries while adding physical gold reserves.

Clearly gold is making a remarkable comeback to the world financial system. A new gold standard is being born without any formal decision. At least that is how Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, an influential international business editor of The Telegraph, described the ongoing efforts by countries to lay their hands on physical gold: “The world is moving step by step toward a de-facto gold standard, without any meetings of G20 leaders to announce this.”

—–

Willem Middelkoop is a Member of the OMFIF Advisory Board, founder of the Netherlands-based Commodity Discovery Fund, and author of “The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame.”

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

Mnuchin (a doorknob) explains that USA dollar policy will not change until it changes…brilliant

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Dollar policy won’t change until it changes, Treasury secretary helpfully explains

 Section: 

Mnuchin Says No Change to U.S. Dollar Policy ‘As of Now’

By Saleha Mohsin
Bloomberg News
Thursday, July 18, 2019

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said there is no change in the U.S.’s dollar policy “as of now” but wouldn’t rule out a shift in the future.

There has been “no change to the dollar policy,” he said during an interview Thursday following a Group of Seven finance ministers’ meeting in Chantilly, France. “This is something we could consider in the future but as of now there’s no change to the dollar policy.”

… 

The Trump administration has softened the long-held U.S. stance of supporting a strong dollar, favoring a stable exchange rate instead as it battles China in a trade war and threatens tariffs on other countries. Mnuchin has also signaled a preference for letting markets determine a currency’s value. “These are very, very large, liquid markets,” he said in the interview. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/mnuchin-says-no-chang…

END

In French Guyana 3 French soldiers have died during a raid on illegal gold mining\

(GATA)

Three soldiers die, five hurt in raid on illegal gold mine in French Guiana

 Section: 

From Deutsche Welle, Bonn, Germany
Thursday, July 18, 2019

Three French soldiers have died during an operation against illegal gold mining in the South American territory of French Guiana, authorities said today.

The troops were in a tunnel, laying explosives to destroy an underground mining complex, when they were poisoned by noxious fumes, the French Defense Ministry said.

… 

Five other soldiers who also inhaled the fumes were airlifted to the territory’s capital, Cayenne. One is still in a serious condition, the ministry said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.dw.com/en/three-french-troops-killed-in-guiana-gold-mining-r…

END

A good one from Foy writing for the London’s Financial Times.  Russia is very anxious to join the bypass and use Europe version of SWIFT.  This of course, hurts USA hegemony badly.

(London’s Financial Times/GATA)

Russia wants to join EU’s bypass of sanctions on Iran

 Section: 

Kremlin Throws Weight Behind EU Effort to Boost Iran Trade

By Henry Foy
Financial Times, London
Thursday, July 18, 2019

MOSCOW — Russia has signalled its willingness to join a European Union payments channel designed to circumvent U.S. sanctions banning trade with Iran and has called on Brussels to expand the new mechanism to cover oil exports.

Moscow’s involvement in the channel, known as Instex, would mark a significant step forward in attempts by the EU and Russia to rescue a 2015 Iran nuclear deal that has been unravelling since the Trump administration abandoned it last year.

… 

“Russia is interested in close co-ordination with the European Union on Instex,” the Russian foreign ministry told the Financial Times. “The more countries and continents involved, the more effective will the mechanism be as a whole.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/3aa3e7ee-a8b7-11e9-984c-fac8325aaa04

END

iii) Other physical stories:

GOLD/SILVER

Silver Market Update – July 2019 – with James Anderson The silver price has slowly been rallying. As supply continues to fall, while there are rumors of a “big whale” in the market possibly acquiring a large amount of silver.

So I was fortunate to have silver expert James Anderson of SD Bullion join me on the show to explain what’s going on. And what to watch out for.

During our interview James shared his thoughts on the current market, how to know when to sell your silver, what’s going to happen to the price if supply continues to fall, and Warren Buffett’s large silver position in the late 1990’s.

For anyone trading the precious metals markets, it’s a great interview with a lot of valuable market information.

So click below to watch it now!

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8776/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8803   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 23.02 POINTS OR 0.79%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 303.74 POINTS OR 1.07%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 420.75 POINTS OR 2.00%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.02/Euro FALLS TO 1.1237

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.13/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.08 and Brent: 62.82

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: PU

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.32%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.61% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.40%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.93: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.16

3k Gold at $1437.90 silver at: 16.31   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 25/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.04

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.64 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9824 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1040 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.32%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.04% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.58%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6558..

Microsoft Beat Sends S&P Back Over 3,000 As Fed Confusion Dings Global Rally

US stock futures rose back over 3,000 as blowout results for Microsoft’s cloud business fed into a bullish mood despite confusing signs from NY York Fed President John Williams that the U.S. central bank was set to cut interest rates either once or twice (if one is academically inclined) this month, while Jim Bullard said one rate cut is enough, even as the market is now pricing odds as high as 70% of a 50bps in rate cuts.

 

Microsoft, now America’s most valuable company, gained 3.5% pre-market, after it topped analysts’ estimates at the end of a week of mixed corporate results in the United States and Europe. Boeing rose 1.7% after disclosing it would take a $4.9 billion after-tax hit in the second quarter on estimated disruptions from the grounding of its 737 MAX passenger jets. Morgan Stanley analyst Rajeev Lalwani said that was a sign that investors were comfortable with the size of the charge and Boeing’s production plans ahead of its results next week.

 

These bullish signal contrasted with the latest round of ample confusion from the Fed. One of the more notable announcements late on Thursday was the New York Fed’s announcement that comments made by Fed’s Williams were academic, based on research and not about potential policy actions at the upcoming FOMC meeting. As a reminder, earlier in the day, NY Fed head John Williams said it is better to take preventative measures on rates than to wait for a disaster to unfold and that the long-run neutral rate for US interest rates is 0.5%; the move sent the dollar tumbling. Elsewhere, Fed’s Bullard said he would listen to arguments for a larger rate cut, but thinks 25bps is appropriate; doesn’t think the situation calls for a larger cut, the WSJ reported.

US stocks had reversed losses and closed green at the end of a disappointing week for earnings as dovish comments from the two Fed officials spurred bets on a 50 basis-point cut. Schlumberger also rose in premarket trading after reporting revenue that beat estimates. Shares of the world’s largest oilfield services provider rose 1% as it announced better-than-expected revenue numbers and named company insider Olivier Le Peuch as new Chief Executive Officer

Over in Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 wiped an earlier advance as Italian shares slid on speculation about snap elections, and after the New York Fed downplayed the comments as being more academic than potential near-term policy action.

Anheuser-Busch InBev NV bounced back from last week’s failed IPO of its Asian unit, after it sold Australian beer assets in a deal valued at $11.3 billion and kept alive the prospect of a share sale. The disposal of Foster’s and other brands to Asahi Group Holdings Ltd. less than a week after the IPO was pulled shows that the world’s largest brewer means business about cutting its $100 billion-plus debt pile. AB InBev shares rose as much as 5.6%, its biggest gain in 5 months.

Italy’s FTSE MIB (-1.2%) lags amid reports of a possible coalition crisis as ties between the League and 5SM sour, whilst speculation about the possibility of early Italian elections in Autumn did the rounds in Italian press on Friday. Sectors are mostly higher with some underperformance in defensive sector, albeit the Consumer Staples is buoyed by AB InBev (+4.3%) as shares surged amid the sale of its of its Australian unit to Japan’s Asahi for USD 11.3bln in a bid to nurse part of its debt. Furthermore, reports stated that the Co. is also mulling the sale of its South Korean and Central American units

Asian stocks advanced, set for the biggest gain in a month, as Japanese semiconductor firms led a technology rally amid optimism the chip industry is stabilizing. Most markets in the region were up, with Japan and South Korea among the best-performing countries. The Topix jumped 1.9%, supported by SoftBank Group and Toyota Motor, ahead of Japan’s upper house election on Sunday. A key inflation gauge fell in June, adding to pressure on the Bank of Japan to step up monetary stimulus. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.8% higher, snapping a three-day losing streak, as China Merchants Bank, Ping An Insurance and Kweichow Moutai provided the biggest boosts. China’s new stock venue designed for technology startups will start trading on Monday. India’s Sensex fell 1.3%, bucking the regional trend, amid disappointment that the government didn’t offer any respite to foreign investors registered as trusts from the proposed super-rich tax. ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank led large financial firms lower.

Adding to the dovish mood, investors are also looking to next week when the ECB could shed light on plans to ease monetary policy. Meanwhile, European bond yields mostly inched lower, with the exception of Italian BTPs as reported earlier. The Italian government debt saw increased yields after a solid rally this month and speculation over early elections.

In FX, the dollar outperformed all Group-of-10 peers amid signs of progress in U.S-China trade talks and after the Federal Reserve clarified that New York Fed President Williams’s comments on the need for action if the economy stumbles were not in reference to its July meeting. The pound slipped as the U.K.’s budget deficit widened while the euro weakened ahead of next week’s European Central Bank meeting. The Japanese yen fell and Treasuries slipped as risk sentiment improved.

In commodities, oil rose to $56 a barrel in New York, trimming a weekly decline which was exacerbated by refineries in the Gulf of Mexico restarting operations after the passing of storm Barry, with reports stating that only 19% of production is currently offline vs. 73% on Sunday. Upside in the complex is also supported by the rising geopolitical tensions after US President Trump stated that the US took defensive actions and downed an Iranian drone, a statement which was denied by Iranian officials.  Gold fell and silver gained for a sixth straight day.

Expected data include the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. American Express and BlackRock are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,007.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 389.25
  • MXAP up 1.3% to 161.01
  • MXAPJ up 0.9% to 530.19
  • Nikkei up 2% to 21,466.99
  • Topix up 1.9% to 1,563.96
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 28,765.40
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 2,924.20
  • Sensex down 1.2% to 38,421.36
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,700.35
  • Kospi up 1.4% to 2,094.36
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to -0.317%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1257
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.9 bps to 1.203%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to 0.392%
  • Brent futures up 1.4% to $62.78/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,440.27
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 96.95

Top Overnight News

  • Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida and New York Fed chief John Williams stressed the need to act quickly if the U.S. economy looked likely to stumble, reinforcing bets the central bank could cut interest rates by as much as half a percentage point later this month
  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams says the lessons for central banks from operating near the zero lower bound on interest rates is “don’t keep your powder dry” though a New York Fed spokeswoman later clarified that Williams’s prepared remarks were an academic speech and not about policy actions at the upcoming meeting.
  • European Central Bank policy makers will give a clear signal next week that interest rates are about to fall even further below zero, economists predict.
  • Foreign-exchange strategists say the risk of a U.S. move to weaken the dollar has risen after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said there’s no change in the nation’s currency policy “as of now.”
  • U.S. and Chinese senior officials spoke by phone on Thursday in Washington, the second call since the late June summit at which the two sides agreed to a truce in their ongoing trade conflict.
  • Mnuchin said the Trump administration and congressional Democrats have agreed on spending levels for a budget deal that could clear the way for raising the federal debt limit before Congress leaves town.
  • Japan’s key inflation gauge fell again in June, adding to pressure on the Bank of Japan to join its global peers in increasing monetary stimulus
  • UK Justice Secretary David Gauke is set to resign, while Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond and International Development Secretary Rory Stewart are also considering departing, The Times reports, citing unidentified allies. They seek to depart before Boris Johnson takes office
  • The UK should expect a “rigorous” assessment of its regulations before financial firms will be allowed to do business in the European Union after Brexit, according to a draft document to be presented by officials in Brussels later this month.
  • President Donald Trump said the U.S. “immediately destroyed” an Iranian drone that approached the USS Boxer near the Strait of Hormuz, the latest sign of escalating military tensions around the critical oil choke point
  • Oil snapped four days of losses after the drone incident, which stoked concerns crude flows from the Middle East may be disrupted.
  • Jeremy Hunt is counting on a late surge to beat Boris Johnson and become U.K. Prime Minister but YouGov reckons he’d have to have a huge swing behind him to win at this stage.

Asian equity markets were positive across the board as the region took its cue from the late gains in US following dovish comments from Fed’s Williams who suggested it is better to take preventative measures on rates and that the long-run neutral rate for US interest rates is 0.5%, although the New York Fed later clarified the rhetoric was academic and not about potential policy action this month. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (+0.8%) was led higher by strength in the mining sector especially gold-related stocks after the precious metal surged to a fresh 6-year high on the Fed comments and with NAB front running the gains for financials after it appointed RBS head McEwan as its next CEO. Nikkei 225 (+2.0%) outperformed as exporters cheered currency outflows, while Hang Seng (+1.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) conformed to optimism after US-China trade negotiators resumed discussions via telephone and with the PBoC’s liquidity efforts resulting to a net weekly liquidity injection of CNY 460bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs gained as they tracked the upside in T-notes amid the dovish Fed bets, but with upside limited by the lack of safe-haven demand and slightly softer demand in the enhanced-liquidity auction for 2yr-20yr JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • China’s New Nasdaq-Style Venue Set for Monday Trading Start
  • China’s Biggest Carmaker Braces for Its First Annual Sales Drop
  • China Minsheng Investment Can’t Pay Bond as Debt Woes Deepen

European equities have given up earlier gains and now trade mostly lower [Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%] as the initial upside momentum seen in Asia and on Wall St. following the dovish comments from Fed voter Williams somewhat waned. The New York Fed downplayed the comments as being more academic than potential near-term policy action. It’s also worth noting that the initial support for equities also came amid comments from Fed’s Vice Chair Clarida who acknowledged the increased global uncertainties and soft US inflation, which somewhat revived market pricing for a 50bps manoeuvre at the July 31st meeting. Italy’s FTSE MIB (-1.2%) lags amid reports of a possible coalition crisis as ties between the League and 5SM sour, whilst speculation about the possibility of early Italian elections in Autumn did the rounds in Italian press on Friday. Sectors are mostly higher with some underperformance in defensive sector, albeit the Consumer Staples is buoyed by AB InBev (+4.3%) as shares surged amid the sale of its of its Australian unit to Japan’s Asahi for USD 11.3bln in a bid to nurse part of its debt. Furthermore, reports stated that the Co. is also mulling the sale of its South Korean and Central American units. On the flip side, shares in Publicis (-8.4%) declined due to a cut in its FY 19 organic growth guidance, as such WPP (-3.0%) fell in sympathy.

Top European News

  • ECB Seen Priming Markets in July for Rate Cut After Summer Break
  • U.K. June Budget Deficit Widens Sharply Amid Spending Surge
  • Orlen Earnings Beat Provides Tonic for Languishing Polish Market
  • Salvini Flirts With New Elections as Russiagate Rumbles On

In FX,  – The Buck continues to see-saw through US data points, survey findings and the final pre-FOMC commentary from Fed officials ahead of the black-out period that begins at COB today. On that note, Williams and Clarida provided ‘guidance’ and despite denials or clarification of the former rate expectations have shifted again, with the probability of a 25 bp or 50 bp ease now much closer to even vs circa 75%/25% after Thursday’s upbeat Philly Fed survey. In response, the Greenback weakened vs all major rivals and the index hit a 96.750 low before tentatively regaining 97.000 status and holding above support, as Usd/G10 pairs pare back or rebound from late yesterday/overnight extremes. Note, remarks from renowned dove Bullard are not really impacting as he repeats his preference for smaller policy adjustment, though would countenance arguments in favour of ½ point.

  • JPY – Having benefited most from the aforementioned Dollar retreat, and with added safe-haven premium gleaned via another US-Iran dispute (former claims that a drone was downed and latter denies any damage), the Yen is now ‘underperforming’. However, Usd/Jpy remains well below the 108.00 axis that has been constricting trade and with decent option expiries now capping the pair along with technical resistance (1.1 bn between 107.90-108.05, 55 DMA at 107.87 and daily chart level at 107.88).
  • EUR – The single currency is still flanked between 1.1200 and 1.1300 parameters with ECB policy stimulus weighing against Fed easing and only days separating the respective July policy meetings. Note also, Italian coalition Government conflicts are coming to a head and expiry interest may also be dragging Eur/Usd down given 1.2 bn rolling off from 1.1240-25 and 1.55 bn at 1.1210-00.
  • AUD/CHF/NZD/GBP/CAD – The Aussie ran up against some key chart hurdles ahead of 0.7100, like the 200 DMA (0.7090) after extending its rebound from just under 0.7000 with some encouragement from the US and China conducting trade dialogue over the phone. However, Aud/Usd is holding above 0.7050 where export bids are touted and if those are filled there are said to be more underlying buy orders between 0.7040-30 linked to 900 mn expiries residing from 0.7035 to 0.7025. Elsewhere, the Franc has faded into 0.9800 and Kiwi not far from 0.6800, while the Pound topped out around 1.2550 and the Loonie continues to pull-up on approaches to 1.3000, with Canadian retail sales data looming.
  • EM – Amidst widespread declines vs the Usd, Zar losses or rather retracement from post-SARB highs has been compounded by more SA political issues as current President Ramaphosa joins a former counterpart in the corruption dock. Rand currently closer to the base of 13.9410-8165 parameters.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are consolidating following the recent decline which was exacerbated by refineries in the Gulf of Mexico restarting operations after the passing of storm Barry, with reports stating that only 19% of production is currently offline vs. 73% on Sunday. Upside in the complex is also supported by the rising geopolitical tensions after US President Trump stated that the US took defensive actions and downed an Iranian drone, a statement which was denied by Iranian officials. Furthermore, IRGC said that Iran will release images to disprove US’ claim. WTI and Brent futures currently reside just above 56/bbl and 63/bbl and with little by way of notable DMAs given the recent slump in prices. Elsewhere, precious metal prices have drifted lower after rallying on the dovish comments from Fed voters Williams and Clarida coupled with the aforementioned geopolitical developments, in which gold hit a fresh 6yr high and briefly breached 1450/oz to the upside. Meanwhile, copper prices are also supported by the overall risk appetite. Finally, iron ore prices were mildly pressured as Iron ore exports from Australia’s port Hedland increased 6% M/M to a record high as miners increased shipments to meet targets.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 98.8, prior 98.2;
    • Current Conditions, est. 112.8, prior 111.9
    • Expectations, est. 90, prior 89.3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.02 POINTS OR 0.79%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 303.74 POINTS OR 1.07%   /The Nikkei closed UP 420.75 POINTS OR 2.00%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .75%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8776 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8803 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8776 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3C CHINA/HONG KONG/TAIWAN/CHINESE AFFAIRS

One little slip shows how China is badly fudging data.  China’s housing bubble has basically burst

(zerohedge)

Beijing Lets One Slip: Obscure Data Suggests China Housing Bubble Has Burst

As far back as 2013, China’s macro-economic data has been ‘questionably’ smoothed at best, and outright fake at worst. Whether it is trade data (“never been faker” than in 2016) or aggregate production (2018’s massive GDP distortions), as economist Nouriel Roubini once asserted, China just makes its numbers up.

And, as we pointed out earlier this week, this month was no exception, when following China GDP’s dramatic slowing to just 6.2% YoY – the slowest since record began – there was a delightful surprise to appease those who are wondering whether record credit injections and more easing measures than during the financial crisis had any effect at all. To wit, China retail sales and industrial production rebounded handsomely with the former spiking 9.8% YoY – the most since March 2018.

There’s just one thing though – the entire surge in retail sales (and industrial production) seems to have been triggered by an almost unprecedented sudden surge in auto sales to – who else – the government itself, in the form large, state-owned enterprises. Think Cash for Clunkers on steroids – if the clunkers belonged to the Federal Government, and the new cars purchased were made by the Government.

Yet there was one critical data set in China’s manipulated economic data spreadsheet, which failed to get the royal goalseek treatment, one with dramatic implications for the broader market.

According to Commodore Research, Chinese June data showed that furniture sales in China totaled only 18.4 billion yuan last month. This marks a year-on-year decline of 14% from the 21.3 billion yuan in sales that was reported last year for June 2018’s furniture sales.

This is puzzling in light of the official Chinese data according to which the local housing market continues to hum along, firing on all cylinders, with the average, 70-city primary market property price rising 10.5% Y/Y in May.

Alas, that does not seem feasible when one considers that furniture sales in China have now contracted on a year-on-year basis for eighteen straight months.

What does this mean? As Commodore Research concludes, “we continue to believe that there is a good chance that the ongoing plummet in furniture sales in China is pointing to much greater weakness existing in the Chinese housing market than is generally being recognized.

This could potentially be very bad news not only for China, but the entire world because as we explained all the way back in March 2017, “The Fate Of The World Economy Is In The Hands Of China’s Housing Bubble“, and if China’s biggest, and most resilient bubble has now indeed burst, the not only is Trump about to steamroll China in the trade war, but the resulting deflationary shock wave is about to send every bond around the world deep into sub-zero territory.

END

 

trouble in china’s dominant repo market where liquidity and lack of collateral concerns caused the overnight o the 4 day repo to climb to 1000%

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

Italian stock market and bonds falter with Salvini ready to call an election and severe his coalition partner , the left wing 5 star movement

(zerohedge)

Italian Assets Crumble As Salvini Keeps Rome On Edge Over Early Elections

Investors have a message for League leader Matteo Salvini: It’s time to make a decision, for better or worse.

BTPs sold off on Friday after one League official told reporters that Salvini – or “the Captain” as he’s known to his followers – had requested a meeting with Italian President Sergio Mattarella, a sign that the Deputy PM might finally be moving to withdraw from Italy’s ruling coalition and request new elections, only for another official to deny it.

Salvini

Then Salvini himself affirmed that he’s still undecided about whether to call for new elections, as the League’s relationship with its coalition partner, the Five Star Movement, grow increasingly fraught.

 

Investors, and the Italian people, aren’t the only ones growing frustrated with Salvini’s indecisiveness. His closest aides are reportedly pushing him to make a decision about whether the League will withdraw from the ruling coalition, with one official saying on Friday that it’s becoming increasingly difficult to govern alongside the left-wing Five Star Movement.

Many senior officials would like to see Salvini kill the coalition and call for new elections, believing that – particularly after the League’s strong showing in the EU Parliamentary elections back in May – the League would be able to consolidate power and rule without a coalition partner, which would grant Salvini total control over increasingly fraught budget negotiations with Europe.

But for whatever reason, Salvini has been reluctant to stick the knife in the back of Luigi Di Maio, the leader of the Five Star Movement and Salvini’s fellow Deputy PM. On Friday, he insisted that it wasn’t Di Maio, but other senior M5S lawmakers, who have been sabotaging the government’s work.

But time is quickly running out. If Salvini chooses to pull out of the coalition now, new elections could be held by September, which would allow the League to assume total control over negotiations with the EU over what’s expected to be a contentious battle over Italy’s 2020 budget.

Investors are clearly dissatisfied with the uncertainty: the FTSE MIB slumped 1% intraday on Friday, the largest slump since June 3. Italian stocks dragged down the broader European market, causing the European Stoxx 600 to erase its prior gains intraday.

FTSE

BTPs – Italian government bonds – also sold off, led by the 10-year, which saw yields climb four basis points to 1.6%, widening the spread with the 10-year German bund to 191 basis points, back toward the all-important 200 bp level.

BTP

The message is clear:

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

Iran releases dramatic footage of the Iranian Guard seizing the UAE oil tanker

(zerohedge)

Iran Releases Dramatic Footage Showing IRGC Seizing Foreign Oil Tanker

On a day that’s witnessed serious escalation amid already soaring tensions in the Persian Gulf, Iran has confirmed the vessel it earlier said its IRGC forces seized for “smuggling” oil is in fact Panamanian-flagged oil tanker MT Riah which had disappeared near Iranian waters starting last weekend. State TV aired dramatic footage showing multiple IRGC fast-boats swarming the clearly marked vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.

Press TV

@PressTV

First video of ‘a foreign fuel-smuggling tanker’ seized by ’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps in the Iranian waters in the Persian Gulf.

Embedded video

Press TV

@PressTV

releases footage showing seizure of ship smuggling fuel in Persian gulf

Embedded video

On Tuesday international reports described the Riah as a tanker based in the United Arab Emirates and cited US intelligence officials to say Iran’s navy had forced the vessel into waters near Iran’s coast starting late Saturday night. Iran had initially denied the accusations that it had detained the vessel.

But now Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has acknowledged the vessel is now being detained by Iran for “smuggling”:

“We do this (inspecting ships) every day. These are people who smuggle our oil,” Iran’s Press TV quoted Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as saying, adding: “It was a small ship used to smuggle 1 million litres – not 1 million barrels – of crude oil.”

It’s clear that Tehran is attempting to ramp up the pressure on Washington and drive up global oil prices, while also potentially in the beginning phase of making good on its long time threat to cut off global shipping through the vital oil passageway.

State run ISNA had earlier in the day described, “A foreign vessel smuggling one million liters of fuel in the Lark Island of the Persian Gulf has been seized,” and said its navy detained it starting Sunday.

Press TV

@PressTV

Video released by shows the foreign fuel tanker’s main deck

Embedded video

Iran’s Press TV had previously issued the following details:

The incident took place to the south of the Iranian Lark Island on Sunday.

IRGC naval forces, which were patrolling the waters on an anti-smuggling mission, acted against the vessel in a “surprise” operation upon ascertaining the nature of its cargo and securing the required legal approval from Iranian authorities.

The ship had loaded the fuel from Iranian dhows and was about to hand it over to other foreign vessels in farther waters. The vessel, which had 12 foreign crewmembers aboard at the time of the mission, is capable of carrying two million liters of fuel.

The statement hailed the naval forces’ “perceptiveness” in frustrating the smuggling effort. It added that the crime had invoked due legal proceedings.

Days ago Iran vowed to “answer” the UK’s seizure and detention of the ‘Grace 1’ which had been transporting 2 million barrels of Iranian oil to Syria. The Royal Marines had boarded it in the Strait of Gibraltar and arrested its crew.

Tehran condemned it as an act of “piracy” and warned the UK it would respond in kind. Thursday’s so far mysterious vessel seizure announced by the IRGC could be the start of the promised coming retribution.

Meanwhile, late in the day Thursday President Trump announced that the amphibious assault ship, the USS Boxer, shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz in a defensive action.

But strangely, Iran’s FM Zarif claimed not be aware of any drone downing following Trump’s announcement, according to Reuters. “We have no information about losing a drone today,” Zarif told reporters at the United Nations.

END
Once the remnants of the drone has been recovered, this incident will be embarrassing to one side.
(zerohedge)

Iran: US May Have Downed Its Own UAS By Mistake – “We’ve Not Lost Any Drones”

Iran has issued a surprise astounding contradiction of the US account related to Thursday’s drone downing. 

President Trump had announced that the amphibious assault ship, the USS Boxer, shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz in a defensive action. The president said in a press briefing it was “immediately destroyed,” when it came within 1,000 yards of the ship according to the president, “threatening the safety of the ship and the ship’s crew.”

But Iran has denied losing any of its drones following the perplexing statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif yesterday evening saying he was not be aware of any drone downing following Trump’s announcement, according to Reuters.We have no information about losing a drone today,”Zarif had told reporters at the United Nations. Instead, Iranian officals are now suggesting the US Navy actually shot down its own drone by mistake. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Twitter early Friday:

“We have not lost any drone in the Strait of Hormuz nor anywhere else. I am worried that USS Boxer has shot down their own UAS (Unmanned Aerial System) by mistake!

And Iran military spokesman, Gen. Abolfazl Shekari, was also quoted by the semi-official Tasnim news agency as saying that “all Iranian drones that are in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, including the one which the U.S. president mentioned, after carrying out scheduled identification and control missions, have returned to their bases.”

Seyed Abbas Araghchi

@araghchi

We have not lost any drone in the Strait of Hormuz nor anywhere else. I am worried that USS Boxer has shot down their own UAS by mistake!

According to President Trump’s account of the incident, the Iranian operators of the drone refused calls to stand down, after which it was “immediately destroyed,” when it came within 1,000 yards of the ship, “threatening the safety of the ship and the ship’s crew.”

Trump has called on “other nations to protect their ships as they go through the Strait,” also as a State Department official told Bloombergthat the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which patrols the area has kept up “continued harassment” of vessels in and around the strait.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I want to apprise everyone of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz today, involving , a U.S. Navy amphibious assault ship. The BOXER took defensive action against an Iranian drone….

Embedded video

Concerning the now deeply conflicting narratives over the downed drone — which Tehran is now saying was actually American, but which Washington says was clearly Iranian— the evidence is out there somewhere in the Persian Gulf, and assuming it’s recovered and presented to the world, could prove hugely embarrassing to one side or the other, most especially the White House if its claims are wrong.

end
Iran’s version is that its drone arrived safely to its base.  It does not know what the Americans shot down if anything!
(zerohedge)

Iran Releases “Video Proof” Contradicting Trump Claim US Shot Down Drone

Earlier in the day top Iranian officials claimed the US Navy may have shot down its own US drone “by mistake” – contradicting the White House account that it had been “immediately destroyed” when it came within 1,000 yards of the ship according to President Trump during Thursday’s press briefing announcing the Iranian drone downing. Iran’s military says all of its drones are accounted for and that it had successfully tracked and monitored the USS Boxer via its overhead unmanned aerial system (UAS) without incident.

Hours following the bizarre contradiction over basic facts, Iran aired video “proof” that its version of events are correct on state TV. Iran’s Press TV published the following video:

Press TV

@PressTV

🔴 DO NOT MISS 🔴 releases video showing its -the alleges to have downed-safely returning to its base after monitoring before and after the vessel sailed through the Strait of .

PARTS 1-2-3

Embedded video

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement calling Trump’s account of an Iranian drone downing “sheer lies” and says the newly released drone footage proves the US version of events can’t possibly be true.

An Iranian military spokesman said its reconnaissance drone “returned to base safely after mission” and the drone observation video of the USS Boxer proves this.

Press TV

@PressTV

🔴 DO NOT MISS 🔴 releases video showing its -the alleges to have downed-safely returning to its base after monitoring before and after the vessel sailed through the Strait of .

PART 3

Embedded video

Press TV

@PressTV

🔴 DO NOT MISS 🔴 releases video showing its -the alleges to have downed-safely returning to its base after monitoring before and after the vessel sailed through the Strait of .

PART 3

Embedded video

US military officials who previously spoke to CNN said the Iranian drone had been brought down through electronic jamming measures. If true there’s a strong likelihood the drone may have been recovered by US forces, which can be presented as verifying the White House account.

The video was released after Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Twitter early Friday:

“We have not lost any drone in the Strait of Hormuz nor anywhere else. I am worried that USS Boxer has shot down their own UAS (Unmanned Aerial System) by mistake!

Iran’s drone footage was aired with the time stamp and date evident, and state media released the following English language statement:

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has released footage captured by an Iranian drone flying over the Strait of Hormuz and monitoring a United States Navy vessel, belying a claim by Washington that the unmanned aircraft was shot down by the American forces.

The Iranians are claiming that the time stamp reveals the drone was still in flight after the time President Trump says it was downed by the USS Boxer.

Golnar Motevalli

@golnarM

Iran’s Press TV airs surveillance video it says is from the IRGC drone that Trump claimed U.S. shot down. Press TV says the drone captured footage of the USS Boxer and timecode shows drone was still operating and surveilling the vessel after the time Trump says it was shot down

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
end
Late this afternoon:
Iran seizes a uK tanker for violating international regulators. They are stating it is piracy on the high seas.  Good reason for the crooks to raid gold/silver today.
(zerohedge)

Iran Seizes UK Tanker For “Violating International Regulations”

A British flagged tanker has been seized by Iran as it was heading toward Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf. The vessel has been identified as the ‘Stena Impero’ which according to public tracking data was expected at the port of Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia; however, on Friday it dramatically veered off course and began sailing directly into Iranian waters

Iran state media has confirmed the IRGC announced it has “captured a British tanker in the Persian Gulf.”

 

Tanker tracker republished in UK Defence Journal showing the Stena Impero erratically changing course toward Iran on Friday. 

The UK Defence Journal first reported based on satellite tracking: “The British flagged ‘Stena Impero’ has taken a very sudden turn into Iranian waters despite her original destination being Saudi Arabia, according to data relayed by maritime tracking services.”

“The vessel is now apparently heading to Qeshm in Iran but had been originally sailing towards Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia,” according to the breaking report.

Crucially, this comes just as UK officials have confirmed authorities in Gibraltar will detain the tanker ‘Grace 1’ – first seized early this month by UK Royal Marines – for another 30 days.

 

UK-flagged Stena Impero, via MarineTraffic.com

Iran had promised to retaliate in kind, following the confirmed detention of a UAE-based Panamanian flagged vessel, the Riah, this week. 

dog@IntelDoge

British Ministry of Defense stating that the ship is “of course” meaning that it’s heading in it’s original path, but it simply just isn’t. It was originally heading in the proper direction, turned, and then turned back and headed for Iran.

Andy 🛳@mgydna

Well that’s not normal 👀

Embedded video

Currently the Royal Navy frigate HMS Montrose and at least one other UK warship are active in providing maritime security to British vessels and allies in the region.

Luna News@Breakingservice

The Uk Oil tanker STENA IMPERO is steaming towards Iran, very strange to occur. Iran could have seized the ship it’s unknown at this moment

View image on Twitter

According to the monitoring publication Aurora Intel the UK Ministry of Defense is “aware of the tanker’s movement towards Iran…”

The Foreign Office said it is currently “urgently seeking further information” on the diverted tanker. The vessel has also reportedlystopped transmitting its maritime tracking signal.

Aurora Intel@AuroraIntel

flagged oil tanker Stena Impero has rather “extremely” diverted off planned track into |ian waters in the Persian Gulf. Last AIS information was over 15 minutes ago now.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Amid soaring tensions and increasing “tanker wars” related to US oil sanctions and the UK detention of the Grace 1, which had reportedly been bound for Syria on a sanctions busting run, Iran’s elite IRGC had promised that should they come upon a British vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, it would seize it “without delay, with firmness and with speed,” according to a prior statement.

The Russian-based monitoring group Maritime Bulletin has also released the following information on the vessel:

It looks like the UK-flagged product tanker STENA IMPERO was forced to move into Iranian waters while transiting Strait of Hormuz en route to Al Jubayl Saudi Arabia, Persian Gulf. Tanker turned hard a starboard at around 1527 UTC Jul 19, and moved straight into Iranian waters, as of 1620 UTC tanker continued sailing in Iranian waters, south of Bandar Abbas, at some 13.5 knots speed.

It does look like a hijack on the high seas, and if it is so, it’s an act of piracy, absolutely unlawful seizure of a foreign tanker in international waters…

developing…

end

TRUMP’s response

(courtesy Wingrove/Bloomberg)

Trump Says He’ll Work With U.K. on Response to Tanker Seizure

President Donald Trump said he will work with the U.K. government on a response to Iran’s seizure of a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

“We have a very close alliance with the U.K.,” Trump said at the White House on Friday as he departed for his golf resort in Bedminster, New Jersey. “I will be working with the U.K.”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it seized the tanker on Friday, escalating tensions in one of the world’s critical energy chokepoints. A day earlier, the U.S. said one of its warships downed an Iranian drone, a claim Iran has rejected.

Friday’s seizure was the second Iranian move against a U.K. ship in just over a week. The British Navy intervened July 11 to stop Iranian forces from blocking a commercial oil tanker leaving the Persian Gulf.

A second oil tanker in the Strait appeared to have turned toward the Iranian coast, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. “It could be one, could be two,” Trump said.

Earlier this month, U.K. forces seized a tanker off Gibraltar that was suspected of carrying Iranian oil to Syria. Iran denied the vessel was headed to Syria and vowed to retaliate.

“This only goes to show what I’m saying about Iran: trouble, nothing but trouble,” Trump said.

— With assistance by Jarrell Dillard

end

RUSSIA
This does not look promising: Russia takes 3 out of 4 nuclear reactors off line and this is the 2nd seirous incident in under a week
(zerohedge)

Russian Nuclear Reactors Taken Offline In 2nd Serious Incident In Under A Week

In a deeply worrisome development related to Russia’s network of ten nuclear power plants nationwide, two of them suffered significant operating incidents in under only one week, causing multiple reactors to be take offline.

Russia’s TASS reported that a “transformer short circuit” at the Kalinin nuclear power plant (NPP) resulted in “a complete shutdown of two and a partial shutdown of another power unit in the Tver region” early on Thursday. In total 3 out of the 4 nuclear plant’s reactors had to be unplugged.

 

Cooling towers at the Kalinin nuclear power plant, via Russia Now/The Telegraph

Hours later, as evening fell, Reuters reported one or more of the units suffering shutdown were back online. Russia is well-known as among the world’s largest producers of nuclear energy.

The Kalinin plant is north-west of Moscow in central Russia and has been operational since the mid-1980’s, with the last major known accident in 2016, in which two workers were injured when a power unit short circuited. Its newest reactor, No. 4, went operational in 2011.

Rosenergoatom, a subsidiary of state nuclear corporation Rosatom, issued a statement stressing there was no need for panic or alarm.

“The radiation level at the station and surrounding territory remains without change and is in line with normal background levels,” the company said.

This latest incident follows a similar one which state media reported last Friday involving a a nuclear plant in the central Russian city of Beloyarsk.

A reactor there had to be disconnected when an automatic safety mechanism was triggered; however, it came back online Tuesday after an inspection found no issues.

END

RUSSIA/TURKEY

Trump is surely not going to like this…Russia offers Turkey its version of the F35: Su 35 jets the day after the USA threw out Turkey

(zerohedge)

Russia Offers Turkey Advanced Su-35 Jets Day After US F-35 Program Expulsion

Could NATO show Turkey the door in the near future? Things could easily reach this point considering the alliance’s most easterly member is fast amassing significant Russian defense hardware. With reception of Russian S-400 anti-air components, and now blocked from the F-35 joint strike fighter program per Wednesday’s White House announcement, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is said to be mulling a new Russian offer.

“Russia is ready to sell its super-maneuverable Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets to Turkey, the head of the Russian state conglomerate Rostec said Thursday,” according to Turkey’s English language Daily Sabah.

“If our Turkish colleagues express a desire, we are ready to work out the deliveries of the Su-35,” Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov said.

 

Russia’s Sukhoi Su-35 fighter, via Russia Insider/Asia Times 

Russia’s TASS news agency also confirmed the offer, which a Turkish military source said was “premature” but noted that Erdogan will assess the proposal. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu had stated previously that Ankara stood ready to sign a contract for jet fighters with other countries should the US block transfers of the F-35.

After the White House statement confirming Turkey was booted from the program, Turkey urged the US to rectify its “mistake” while also calling it “unfair”.

The Su-35S is Russia’s latest advanced fighter, a derivative of the Su-27 plane, having been in service with the army since 2015, as TASS describes further of its specs:

The Su-35S generation 4++ supersonic fighter jet performed its debut flight on February 19, 2008. The fighter jet is a derivative of the Su-27 plane. The Su-35S weighs 19 tonnes, has a service ceiling of 20,000 meters, can develop a maximum speed of 2,500 km/h and has a crew of one pilot. The fighter jet’s armament includes a 30mm aircraft gun, up to 8 tonnes of the weapon payload (missiles and bombs of various types) on 12 underwing hardpoints.

The first foreign purchasers of the Su-35 were China and Indonesia. Russia completed delivery of two dozen of the supersonic jets to China in November 2018 as part of a deal said to be worth about $2.5 billion.

Indonesia reportedly is awaiting delivery its own order of 11 Su-35s, expected by the end of 2019.

Should at some future point Turkey actually possesses advanced Russian fighters in the air, with Russian air defenses on the ground, the mainstay of NATO leadership would certainly find it hard to stomach Ankara’s continued membership in the alliance.

END

6.Global Issues

Michael Snyder’s assessment on the Iranian issue as to what has happened and the danger that we are in

(Michael Snyder)

 

On The Brink Of World War 3: Here Are 5 Major Developments Within The Last 48 Hours…

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

Has a war between the United States and Iran become inevitable?  That is what some in the mainstream media seem to be claiming, but let us hope that is not true, because such a war would mean immense death and destruction.  If the Iranian regime felt that their survival was at stake, they would throw everything in their entire arsenal at the United States and Israel, and they would unleash Hezbollah to commit horrific acts of terror all over the globe.  That would include acts of terror inside the United States, and most Americans have absolutely no idea how nightmarish it would be to have Hezbollah terrorists striking soft targets all across the country.  And in order to quickly win a war against Iran, the U.S. would probably have to use nuclear weapons, and that is a line that we do not want to cross.  This wouldn’t be anything like our wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but very few people seem to understand this.

And within the last 48 hours, such a conflict has gotten much, much closer.  Here are 5 of the most important developments…

#1 According to President Trump, the U.S. Navy shot down an Iranian drone over the Strait of Hormuz.  The following comes from NBC News

President Donald Trump on Thursday said that a U.S. Navy ship “destroyed” an Iranian drone over the Strait of Hormuz — the latest in a series of tense incidents between Washington and Tehran.

Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday that the USS Boxer — a U.S. Navy amphibious assault ship — “took defensive action” against the Iranian drone that had “closed into a very, very near distance, approximately 1,000 yards.”

The drone was “threatening safety of the ship and the ship’s crew” and “was immediately destroyed,” he said.

#2 The Iranians denied that it was their drone.  So either the Iranians are lying (which is a very real possibility), or someone else may be trying to start a war between our two nations.  When asked about the drone, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif seemed to indicate that the drone which was shot down did not belong to them

“We have no information about losing a drone today,” Zarif told reporters at the United Nations before a meeting with Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

#3 But the Iranians have admitted that they have seized a Panamanian-flagged, UAE-based oil tanker.  According to Iran, the tanker was seized because it was illegally smuggling Iranian oil “to foreign customers”

The tanker was seized by Revolutionary Guard forces on July 14 after getting intercepted south of Iran’s Larak Island in the strategic Strait of Hormuz amid allegations that the tanker was smuggling fuel from Iranian smugglers to foreign customers.

It remains unclear to which country or company the tanker belongs but a tanker based in the United Arab Emirates disappeared earlier this week.

#4 The U.S. State Department has condemned Iran for seizing the tanker, and U.S. officials are demanding that they immediately release it

In a statement, a State Department spokesperson said the U.S. “strongly condemns the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy’s continued harassment of vessels and interference with safe passage in and around the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Iran must cease this illicit activity and release the reportedly seized crew and vessel immediately. We will continue to work closely with our allies and partners to ensure the Iranian regime’s extortion tactics and malign activities do not further disrupt maritime security and global commerce,” the spokesperson said.

#5 It has been announced that the U.S. is deploying 500 troops to Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.  As tensions with Iran continue to rise, the number of troops being staged at this base is likely to increase dramatically.  The following comes from CNN

Five-hundred troops are expected to go to the Prince Sultan Air Base, located in a desert area east of the Saudi capital of Riyadh, according to US two defense officials. A small number of troops and support personnel are already on site with initial preparations being made for a Patriot missile defense battery as well as runway and airfield improvements, the officials said.

The US has wanted to base troops there for some time because security assessments have shown Iranian missiles would have a difficult time targeting the remote area.

I don’t know who is doing those “security assessments”, because the truth is that Iranian missiles can easily reach that base.

For a while there it seemed like things had cooled off a bit in the Middle East, and many were hoping that the threat of an imminent conflict had been averted.

Unfortunately, things are now more tense than ever, and a single mistake could set off a chain of events that nobody is going to be able to stop.

On Thursday, Iran’s foreign minister made the following very ominous statement

“We live in a very dangerous environment,” the Iranian foreign minister, Javad Zarif, said Thursday at the United Nations before news of the drone was made public.

“The United States has pushed itself and the rest of the world into probably the brink of an abyss.”

And once we plunge into that abyss, there is no turning back.

Of course most ordinary Americans aren’t really thinking about Iran at all.  They are just busy working hard, raising their kids and trying to build their lives.  Perhaps they have heard a little bit about tensions with Iran on the news, but most of them have absolutely no idea that we could literally be on the verge of an apocalyptic war in the Middle East.

If a full-blow war with Iran erupts, events are going to start escalating very rapidly and it will set the stage for many of the nightmare scenarios that I have been relentlessly warning about.

A lot of the talking heads on television seem to think that “the worst case scenario” would be having the U.S. dragged into another endless “quagmire” like we witnessed in Afghanistan and Iraq.

No, that is definitely not the worst case scenario.

The Iranians have been preparing for this conflict for decades, and they would hit us with everything that they have got.

In order to defeat them quickly, we would have to go beyond just using conventional weapons, and that is somewhere that we do not want to go.

END

Michael Every’s global outlook today

(zerohedge/Michael Every/Rabobank)

Strait Outta Hormuz

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

The Strait of Hormuz these days seems to be what the streets of Compton used to be in the 90s. Yesterday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it has seized a “foreign vessel” for smuggling fuel. And this morning, news came in that the US has shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz, after it allegedly threatened a US warship. About a fifth of global daily oil consumption (c. 21 million barrels) passes through the Strait each day. Moreover, tensions between the US and Iran are more likely to increase than not (don’t forget Iran also shot down a US drone last month). So don’t expect a smooth ride for oil prices this summer.

From the Strait of Hormuz, to back to Europe. According to Bloomberg sources, ECB staff is looking into potentially reforming its inflation target from “below, but close to 2%” to perhaps a policy band around 2%. Such a band would explicitly make the inflation target symmetric (something President Draghi favours), which means that the ECB can better signal willingness to overshoot the target for a short while. As such, it can reinforce inflation expectations if it is seen as a signal of more (or a prolonged period of) loose monetary policy. However, our ECB watcher Bas van Geffen cautions that the risk of such a symmetric band is that the market could also interpret the lower bound as ‘good enough’, especially if inflation keeps undershooting the ECB’s aim. Suppose the band is 0.5%. This implies the ECB might target an inflation rate of 2.5%, but it also implies that an inflation rate of 1.5% is within the ECB’s target band. Hooray, the ECB has achieved its inflation target by simply changing the definition of the target. What does that mean for its credibility? To avoid that situation, a symmetric band should probably be accompanied by more stimulus to rekindle inflation expectations.

Staying in Europe, geographically at least, the chance of a hard Brexit just became a bit smaller. The UK parliament voted for an amendment that in effect blocks the Prime Minister’s ability to prorogue parliament. Candidate PM Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he would not rule out proroguing parliament, which would in effect stop parliament from voting against a hard Brexit before the October 31 deadline. Importantly, the amendment passed with a 315 to 274 vote, which sends an important signal to Johnson. Namely, that he will face fierce opposition from parliament if he tries to pursue a Hard Brexit. The pound sterling rose on the news, but is likely to stay volatile as the next Brexit-deadline nears.

Over to emerging markets, where the FX streets can be quite rough too. Bank of Indonesia (BI) cut interest rates by 25 bps yesterday to 5.75% and has signaled it is willing to cut rates more as it “sees open space for accommodative monetary policy “, even though inflation is within BI’s inflation target band (3.3%) and the country is enjoying decent economic growth (5%). The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) also cut its interest rate by 25 bps to 6.75% (as we expected), citing weaker business confidence, weak economic growth (SARB cut its growth forecast for South Africa in 2019 from 1% to 0.6%) and ZAR strength as of late. As such, BI, SARB and Bank of Korea (which also cut rates yesterday) have joined a growing list of central banks loosening monetary policy, seemingly taking advantage of strengthening EM currencies.

However, we believe the recent strength of EM currencies will be overshadowed in the medium term by a gloomier world economic outlook, a resurfacing US China trade war and resulting negative sentiment towards emerging markets. Indonesia, for example, not only depends heavily on China for exports, IDR is quite sensitive to US monetary policy and market sentiment given the country’s twin deficits and high amount of US dollar-denominated corporate debt.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1237 DOWN .0034 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.64 UP 0.233 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2535   UP   0.0008  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3052 UP .0016 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 24 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 23.02 POINTS OR 0.79% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 303.74 POINTS OR 1.07%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,75%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 303.74 POINTS OR 1.07%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.02 POINTS OR 0.79%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 75%

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 420.75  POINTS OR 2.00%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1436.90

silver:$16.29-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.04% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.58 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.02 UP 23 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.46% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.13%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.39%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,61 UP 5 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 118 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.32% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.93% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1228  DOWN     .0033 or 33 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.72 UP .315 OR YEN DOWN 32  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2509 DOWN .0033 POUND DOWN 33  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 34 basis points to 1.3069

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8821    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8813  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6434 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.13%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.04 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.57 UP 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.15 UP 36I  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 15.61  0.21%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 32.22 POINTS OR .26%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 1.79 POINTS 0.03%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 55.20 POINTS or 0.60%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 449.35 POINTS OR 2.03%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 55.09 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 62.10 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    62.94  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.32 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.01//

 

 

BRENT :  63.12

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.05…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.57..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1217 ( DOWN 44   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.37 UP .332 (YEN DOWN 33 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.15 PU 36 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2498 DOWN 44  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6530

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.98   DOWN 0.20 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 20 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3060 DOWN 25 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8821  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8836 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.32%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 68.77 POINTS OR 0.25%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 60.74 POINTS OR 0.74%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.277%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Downed Drones, Fed FUBAR, & Tanker Turmoil Spark Stock Slump; Silver Soars Most In 3 Years

Anyone else feel like we’re “on a highway to the danger zone” in stocks?

Only China’s tech-heavy ChiNext ended the week positive…

 

European stocks were red across the board with Italy worst on headlines about a fresh election…

 

US equities “lost that loving feeling” this week as Iran tensions re-escalated and The Fed teased with 50bps and then took the punchbowl away…Small Caps and Nasdaq were the week’s biggest losers, Trannies outperformed (but were red)

NOTE – major vol in Trannies this week.

 

Despite desperate efforts to get the S&P green for the week and above 3,000; tensions in Iran and The Fed walking back 50bps cut hopes were too much for the algos…

 

NFLX was ugly…

 

And The FANG stocks stalled at critical resistance…

 

Microsoft surged to a new record high, well north of $1 trillion market cap, after earnings…

 

VIX was higher on the week, testing 14, and while IG risk was flat, HY spreads jumped notably on the week…

 

Bonds and Stocks remain extremely decoupled…

 

Treasury yields ended the week lower, despite a spike today as The Fed desperately walked back Williams’ comments…

 

10Y Yields tumbled on the week…

 

The yield curve (3m10Y) remains inverted for the 40th day (despite testing zero for the 5th time in a week)…

 

The odds of a 50bps rate-cut plunged from over 70% after Williams’ comments to just 22% tonight…

For now, expectations are for around 30bps of cuts in July…

 

The Fed’s jawboning has rippled down to Main Street too…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

Expectations of lower interest rates in today’s UMich sentiment survey shot up to 19%, the highest level since May 2009! What do households see that investors don’t see??

View image on Twitter

 

Despite lots of intraday vol, thanks to The Fed’s FUBAR communications strategy, the dollar ended the week higher…

 

A very noisy week for cryptos with Ethereum the biggest loser…

 

Bitcoin managed to get back above $10,000…

 

Ethereum found support around $200 (and last weekend’s flash crash lows)…

 

Oil suffered its biggest weekly loss of the year (down over8%) as silver spiked…

 

Silver soared over 6% on the week – the biggest weekly gain since July 2016; back above $16 (the highest in a year)…

NOTE – Silver is very close to triggering a golden-cross.

Silver dramatically outperformed gold on the week (after gold reached 26 year highs relative to silver)…

 

WTI plunged from $61 to a $54 handle during the week as Iran tensions apparently de-escalated (just ignore the drone-shooting)…

NOTE – WTI prices spiked late in the day after headlines that Iran captured a British tanker…

 

Are we set for another cyclical shift lower in oil in silver terms?

 

Finally, global central banks have officially flipped from hawkish to dovish…

Because stocks are really in the “danger zone”…

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/this morning

Trump Bashes Fed’s Williams, Says US Economic Growth “No Thanks To Federal Reserve”, Sees “No Inflation”

In yet another unprecedented move from our iconoclastic president, President Trump bashed New York Fed President John Williams in a tweet on Friday morning, saying the Fed doesn’t deserve any credit for engineering what has become the longest period of economic expansion in US history.

Yesterday, Williams sent the S&P 500 back into the green after he appeared to suggest that the Fed would deliver the 50 bp rate cut that the market so desperately craves. But to the bulls’ chagrin, the NY Fed soon walked back Williams extremely dovish comments, saying Williams’ words didn’t reflect “potential policy actions” at the FOMC meeting later this month.

John Williams

Now, Trump is praising Williams for acknowledging yesterday that the central bank raised rates too quickly, but is bashing him for trying to take credit for the booming Trump era economy.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I like New York Fed President John Williams first statement much better than his second. His first statement is 100% correct in that the Fed “raised” far too fast & too early. Also must stop with the crazy quantitative tightening. We are in a World competition, & winning big,…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….but it is no thanks to the Federal Reserve. Had they not acted so fast and “so much,” we would be doing even better than we are doing right now. This is our chance to build unparalleled wealth and success for the U.S., GROWTH, which would greatly reduce % debt. Don’t blow it!

Trump then insisted that there’s almost no inflation, which means the central bank should acquiesce to his demand to slash interest rates by a full percentage point and launch QE4.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….Fed: There is almost no inflation!

Ironically, inflation expectations in the UMich consumer sentiment survey just posted their highest reading since March 2016.

While the USD and short-dated Treasury yields have unwound their post-Williams move after the central bank’s walkback, US stocks opened higher…so they rallied on the comments AND the walk back.

At this point, economists and analysts agree that the Fed’s December rate hike was a mistake. Trump has now tweeted about Jerome Powell, Mario Draghi and Williams – and we’d bet money that Neel Kashkari is probably fuming about how the president hasn’t noticed his eagerness to cut to -1%.

end

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Pay close attention to Clarida.  He also states that the Fed should not wait for the economy to downturn before undergoing massive QE

(zerohedge)

The Precog Fed: Vice Chair Clarida Says Fed Shouldn’t Wait For Economy To Turn Down To Cut Rates

There was something bizarre in yesterday’s latest Beige Book: it painted an unexpectedly strong picture of the economy. Here, again, are the key points we pulled from the summary of various regional Feds’ takes on the current state of the US economy:

  • In most Districts, sales of retail goods increased slightly overall,
  • Activity in the nonfinancial services sector rose further
  • Tourism activity was broadly solid, with Atlanta and Richmond recording robust growth in this sector,
  • Some Districts continued to report healthy expansion in the transportation sector.
  • Home sales picked up somewhat, but residential construction activity was flat.
  • Nonresidential construction activity increased or remained strong in most re-porting Districts, and commercial rents rose
  • A modest pickup in manufacturing activity since the last reporting period was observed in a few Districts
  • Increased demand for loans was broad-based, with all but two Districts noting some growth in financing activity
  • Employment grew at a modest pace, as labor markets remained tight; contacts across the country experiencing difficulties filling open positions.
    • The reports noted continued worker shortages across most sectors, especially in construction, information technology, and health care.
  • Compensation grew at a modest-to-moderate pace, similar to the last reporting period, although some contacts emphasized significant increases in entry-level wages.
  • Rate of price inflation was stable to down slightly from the prior reporting period. Districts generally saw some increases in input costs, stemming from higher tariffs and rising labor costs.
  • Reduced supply boosted prices for some agricultural goods; some Districts noted increased upward transportation pricing pressures, while others highlighted price declines due to reduced demand for shipping services.

But why good news bizarre? Because as NY Fed president John Williams made clear today, not only is the Fed cutting in July, but the Fed will likely continue cutting until we get back to ZIRP again:

“First, take swift action when faced with adverse economic conditions. Second, keep interest rates lower for longer. And third, adapt monetary policy strategies to succeed in the context of low r-star and the ZLB.”

 

Williams’ comment resulted in market odds for two rate cuts in July surging from the low 20s to 65%!

But the big surprise isn’t what Williams said – after all he is a well-known dove. What we found even more interesting is what Fed Vice Chair and former Pimco employee, Richard Clarida – once known as a centrist – said during a Fox Business interview.

Indeed, Clarida shocked markets when he buried the Fed’s “data dependent” protocol, by saying that the Fed should not respond to data, but to what the Fed believes the data will be (ignoring for a minute that the Fed’s track record at predicting the future is far worse than even that of Wall Street). When asked to define his take on the economy and what optimal monetary policy should be, Clarida said that the U.S. economy is in a good place but uncertainties about the outlook have increased, and “under ideal monetary policy you adjust policy to keep the economy on an even keel.”

In other words, “You don’t want to wait” for the economy to turn down, Clarida said, adding that “when interest rates are close to zero, it’s important to act preemptively, shocking traders because his framing immediately brought up the thought experiment of what should happen if there is a recession, or depression, in 10, 20, 50, or even 100 years from now. Well, according to Clarida, it is now the Fed’s job to not only be data-dependent, but pre-data dependent, and even though the economy is firing on all cylinders now, the fact that at some arbitrary point in the future the economy may contract and a recession ensue, is now a sufficient reason for the Fed to cut rates as much as it wants at any given moment.

 

Richard Clarida

And in his latest attempt to cover for the upcoming rate cut, Clarida said that while recent U.S. indicators have been mixed – actually they have been quite strong – but just because “global data has been disappointing” and inflation has been coming in on the “soft side”, the Fed has room to act.

To summarize: the US central bank is now not only the world’s central bank, but like Tom Cruise, it has the liberty to act and do anything it sees appropriate to prevent some event from killing the US economy.

And just like that not only ZIRP, but also NIRP and stock market QE is virtually assured. Because since some time, in the distant future, a depression awaits, so the Fed has full liberty to act now and prevent it, clearly oblivious that by intervening preemptively, the Fed is assuring that the buildup of imbalances will be staggering and the next depression will be unlike anything the world has ever seen.

END

An absolute joke..pay no attention to this.  The Clarida statement is far more important\

(zerohedge)

‘Just Kidding’ – Fed Desperately Walks Back Williams’ ZIRP Comments

 

What a farce.

A few short hours after NY Fed President John Williams sparked mayhem  in the markets by dropping the most dovish of hints in a speech:

First, take swift action when faced with adverse economic conditions.

Second, keep interest rates lower for longer.

And third, adapt monetary policy strategies to succeed in the context of low r-star and the ZLB.”

Signaling to the market that lower, sooner, and longer is the way forward, a Fed spokesman has issued a ‘just kidding’ statement in a desperate attempt to walk back market expectations.

 

 

After Williams spoke, bond yields tumbled along with the dollar as stocks and gold spiked and the market’s odds of a 50bps rate-cut in July spiked to over 70%!

 

And so a New York Fed spokesman quickly ran to the nearest reporter to explain that Williams didn’t intend to suggest Thursday that the central bank might make a large interest rate cut this month.

“This was an academic speech on 20 years of research. It was not about potential policy actions at the upcoming FOMC meeting.”

Oh sure yeah. So what exactly was the point of it? Have we ever been this low in rates before? What little credibility The Fed had after its massive flip-flop this year has just been washed down the toilet of ivory tower speculation.

The market reacted to the walk-back with the dollar rebounding…

 

Fed rate change expectations tightening…

 

And the odds of a 50bps cut tumbling from over 70% to around 40%…

 

All still adjusted for Williams speech, the dollar is still down,and gold, bonds, and stocks higher…

 

END

Boeing

Just a start: Boeing takes a $4.9 billion charge.

(zerohedge)

Boeing Takes $4.9 Billion Charge As 737 Max Fiasco Drags On, Stock Jumps

In a long-overdue step that suggests Boeing is eager to put the 737 MAX debacle behind it, the Seattle airplane company announced it would take a $4.9 billion charge in Q2 related to the grounding of the 737 Max aircraft, which represents that troubled aircraft maker’s first estimate of the cost of compensating airlines for schedule disruptions and delays in aircraft deliveries. The charge will result in a $5.6 billion hit to pre-tax earnings when the company reports earnings on July 24, the company said in a statement issued on Thursday.

There is just one problem: there is no assurance Boeing’s 737 MAX woes will end in Q2, with media reports suggesting the grounding of the jet may last into 2020. That scenario is not being contemplated by the world’s largest commercial aircraft manufacturer, which said it assumes regulatory approval will be granted for the Max to return to global skies in the fourth quarter of this year.

“This assumption reflects the company’s best estimate at this time, but actual timing of return to service could differ from this estimate,” the company said.

To address the possibility of an extended grounding, Boeing said that although the charge equal to $8.74 per share, would be taken in the second quarter, the company said it expects “potential concessions or other considerations” would come “over a number of years”. As the FT notes, “concessions in such circumstances often take the form of price cuts on aircraft orders rather than cash payments.”

 

More importantly, and the reason why the company finds itself in this spot, Boeing said it is raising its estimated costs to produce the aircraft by $1.7bn in the second quarter, primarily due to higher costs associated with a reduced production rate (and hopefully with safety equipment that is sold as standard instead of options). While Boeing cut production to 42 per month in April from 52 per month, and is parking the grounded plane in car-lots…

… Boeing said it expects to ramp up to 57 a month in 2020.

Addressing Boeing’s shareholders, CEO Dennis Muilenburg said that “we remain focused on safely returning the 737 Max to service. This is a defining moment for Boeing.”

Boeing chief financial officer Greg Smith added: “We are taking appropriate steps to manage our liquidity and increase our balance sheet flexibility the best way possible as we are working through these challenges. Our multiyear efforts on disciplined cash management and maintaining a strong balance sheet, in addition to our strong and broad portfolio offerings, are helping us navigate the current environment.”

Boeing suspended financial guidance after the grounding and said it will issue new guidance in future, but for now investors liked the fact that over half a billion dollars would be paid out, sending Boeing stock higher after hours.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries

The latest of the debt ceiling  talks

(zerohedge)

Pelosi Rejects Latest White House Offer On Debt-Ceiling Deal As Talks Stall

Update (7:30 am ET): And in what appears to be the first rupture in the debt-ceiling talks, Pelosi has reportedly rejected the ‘menu’ of spending cuts offered by the White House to offset the budget cap increases that were reportedly agreed to last week.

  • PELOSI WON’T ACCEPT LATEST WHITE HOUSE DEBT CEILING OFFER

* * *

Though you wouldn’t be able to tell from the price action in US stocks, which roared back into the green after John Williams offered some of the most dovish comments yet re: a July rate cut, only for his comms staff to walk them back hours later, the market is getting anxious about the prospects for a deal to raise the debt ceiling, which the White House has promised would be reached before the end of the summer.

 

That anxiety has so far manifested in the T-bills curve around the October maturities, which is when the Treasury Department’s “extraordinary measures” are expected to run out, leaving the Treasury in danger on defaulting on supposedly “riskless” Treasuries.

TBill

 

But after the Trump administration and congressional leaders reportedly “reached an agreement” on overall spending levels in a two-year deal to raise budget caps – Congress wants a two-year budget agreement to accompany any deal to raise the debt ceiling – the difficult part of the negotiations is now at hand: That is, agreeing on the offsetting cuts that the White House is demanding (since the Trump administration won’t tolerate any tax increases).

The latest update on these negotiations has been brought to us by Bloomberg, which reported late Thursday that the White House has offered Pelosi a “menu” of spending cuts that would offset the budget-cap increases. In total, the ‘menu’ equals at least $574 billion, and the White House is seeking to pay for at least $150 billion of the cost for raising the caps via these cuts, which Pelosi must now accept or reject.

Half of the proposals are cuts; the rest come from reforms, according to BBG’s anonymous administration sources. And one of the suggested reforms is the drug pricing plan from the White House’s 2020 budget, which would save $115 billion.

Alternatively, the offer also includes a proposal to extend budget caps by two more years, extending them through 2023 (under the current agreement, they would be set to expire in 2021). Extending the caps would save the government an additional $516 billion. Under current law, $126 billion in automatic cuts would take effect by the end of the calendar year if the caps are not raised.

Pelosi

Whatever she decides, it’s clear that Pelosi now has some decisions to make. Earlier on Thursday, she said she wants to file a bill this week to set up House votes next week on the package.

But, “nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to, but we are on our way,” she told reporters at the Capitol this week. Though, “we have a path,” she insisted.

However, in an ironic twist, it might not be the Republicans who give Pelosi the most trouble on this issue. Indeed, the progressive Dems who are steadily gaining more influence in the House and already threatening to sabotage other pieces of party-leadership-backed legislation (like they tried to sabotage the border bill).

We wouldn’t be surprised to see AOC and her “squad” – who seem to have no respect, or even an understanding of, financial markets – push back against any proposed cuts, leaving Pelosi in an even more difficult position.

end

Alan Dershowitz Defends His “Perfect” Sex Life, Denies Allegations From Epstein Accusers

The feud between power-lawyer David Boies and Harvard Law professor Alan Dershowitz took a bizarre turn Thursday night when Dershowitz appeared on Laura Ingraham’s Fox News show to defend himself from allegations that he slept with one of former client Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged underage sex slaves.

Boies is representing Virginia Roberts Giuffre, the former Mar-a-Lago locker room attendant who claims that she was recruited by Epstein’s former madame and ex-girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell when she was 16, and then groomed for sex slavery. Giuffre and another Epstein accuser, Sarah Ransome, claim that Dershowitz was among the powerful men that Epstein forced them to have sex with.

During the interview with Ingraham, Dershowitz claimed that he has had sex with only one woman since the day he met Jeffrey Epstein, and that he and his wife have a “perfect sex life.” He then challenged Boies to say the same under oath.

“I have had sex with one woman since the day I met Jeffrey Epstein. I challenge David Boies to say under oath that he’s only had sex with one woman…he has an enormous amount of chutzpah to attack me and challenge my perfect, perfect sex life during the relevant period of time,” Dershowitz said.

Later, Dershowitz accused Boies of having a “terrible reputation for sexual activities” and insisted that the rival lawyer was only representing Epstein’s accusers for the money, despite Boies’ claims that he’s taking on the cases pro-bono. Dershowitz claimed that he has emails from one accuser in which “she admits that she didn’t have sex with me” and that “she put me in her book to help sell the book.” Meanwhile, his other accuser claims she has sex tapes of powerful figures including the Clintons, President Trump and Richard Branson, Dershowitz said.

Dershowtiz then claimed that the women only started “telling their lies” after meeting with Boies.

“These are the most tainted serial liars imaginable and they all started telling their lies after they met David Boies,” Dershowitz said. He then called for a federal investigation into Boies and insisted that he would be happy for the Feds to investigate him as well because “I am afraid of nothing and I have nothing to hide.”

Dershowitz, who is famous for his work on OJ Simpson’s legal “Dream Team” and for defending President Trump during the Mueller investigation, represented Epstein during the convicted pedophile’s 2008 sweetheart plea agreement. Epstein was denied bail on Thursday, meaning that he will remain in his tiny jail cell instead of being allowed to return to his Manhattan mansion.

end
TRUMP’S approval ratings soar as he praises the “send her back” crowd and calls them “incredible patriots.
(zerohedge)

Trump Reverses, Praises “Send Her Back” Crowd As “Incredible Patriots”

While speaking to a group of reporters on Friday, President Trump said something that’s almost guaranteed to send Democrats back into fits of hysterical rage: He insisted that members of the audience during his North Carolina rally earlier this week – the same ones who burst into the “racist” “send her back” chants – are “incredible patriots.”

Trump said this despite disavowing the chant, which he didn’t start or actively encourage, after a severe backlash from Democrats and Republicans. While disavowing the chant, Trump did say he “felt a little bit bad” about it.

Trump

When pressed by reporters, Trump refused to repeat his criticism of the chant from Thursday, and instead criticized Ilhan Omar – the object of the chant.

“Those are incredible people, those are incredible patriots,” Trump said.

In reference to Omar, he said: “She’s lucky to be where she is, let me tell you. And the things that she has said are a disgrace to our country.”

Later in the afternoon, during a brief huddle with reporters to address Iran’s seizure of two British tankers, Trump criticized her again for introducing a bill supporting the BDS movement directed at Israel.

“They can’t go around saying that our country is ‘garbage’,” Trump said, referring to Omar and her fellow “Squad” members. “When they do that, I don’t care about politics.”

He added that “what they say is a disgrace to them, a disgrace to our country and a disgrace to Democrats.”

Kyle Griffin

@kylegriffin1

Trump calls the North Carolina crowd, some of whom chanted ‘send her back,’ “incredible people. Those are incredible patriots.”

Trump says of Ilhan Omar: “She’s lucky to be where she is, let me tell you. And the things that she has said are a disgrace to our country.”
Via CNN

Embedded video

Bloomberg reported that Trump’s seeming back-and-forth over the chant “reflect the political tension he faces as the 2020 campaign gets underway. He is trying to rev up core supporters while at the same time appeasing more mainstream Republicans.”

Trump has been feuding with the Squad for nearly a week now, ever since he tweeted on Sunday that the four Congresswoman should “go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came” – a comment that Democrats immediately pounced on and condemned as racist.

However, Trump’s rhetoric about the Squad has helped beef up his approval rating, which according to a poll out Friday climbed to its highest level yet, and just a few points short of a majority of popular support. That means voters are responding to Trump’s criticisms of the Democrats, who are becoming increasingly beholden to the party’s progressive wing, despite Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s insistence that “the Squad”‘s following on Capitol Hill is limited to “just four votes” (criticism which AOC, the Squad’s de facto leader, swiftly denounced as racist).

END

SHE’S TOAST: Latest Report by David Steinberg Describes Ilhan Omar’s 8 Instances of Perjury – Could Face 40 Years in Prison or Deportation

David Steinberg released his latest report on controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar on Thursday at PowerLineblog.com.


Ilhan Omar with her father and sister. (PowerLine)

According to Steinberg there is credible evidence that Ilhan Omar and her family changed their name to illegally enter the United States back in 1995.

And since that time Ilhan Omar as an adult continued to defy US law. According to Steinberg Rep. Omar committed at least eight instances of perjury going back to 2009. The charges could carry up to 40 years of prison time or deportation.

Obviously, Ilhan Omar has no regard for US law and yet here she is representing Minnesota in the US Congress and a sitting member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

David Steinberg reported today on Ilhan’s criminal activity.
She obviously has no problem with lying on federal documents.

Please read the verified evidence below — and read it alongside the three years of verified evidence published by Scott Johnson, Preya Samsundar, and myself (our work is linked here). The answers to those questions about 2009 appear to give probable cause to investigate Omar for eight instances of perjury, immigration fraud, marriage fraud, up to eight years of state and federal tax fraud, two years of federal student loan fraud, and even bigamy.

To be clear: The facts describe perhaps the most extensive spree of illegal misconduct committed by a House member in American history.

David Steinberg concludes his report with this list of possible crimes committed by Ilhan Omar.

Consider the disturbingly inadequate evidence used to obtain FISA warrants on members of Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. Consider that Democratic representatives have demanded that Attorney General William Barr release grand jury testimony — itself an illegal act.

Yet here we have:

  • Verifiable UK and U.S. marriage records
  • Verifiable address records
  • Time-stamped, traceable, archived online communications (Convictions and settlements based upon social media evidence are commonplace, Anthony Weiner being a notable example)
  • Background check confirmations of SSNs and birthdates
  • Archived court documents signed under penalty of perjury
  • Photos which can be examined to rule out digital manipulation
  • The 2019 Minnesota Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board investigation, which found Omar filed illegal joint tax returns with a man who was not her husband in at least 2014 and 2015
  • Three years’ of evidence published across many articles — none of which has been shown to be incorrect, or have even been challenged with contradictory evidence from Rep. Omar or any other source
  • Perjury evidence that stands on its own — regardless of whom she married:
    • Long after June 2011, she was clearly in contact with the only man in either the U.S. or the UK with the same name and birthdate as the man she married. She was clearly in contact with several people who were in contact with him.
    • Further, Preya Samsundar did contact him, published how she managed to contact him, and published his email admitting to being photographed with Omar in London in 2015. To be clear: Omar was legally married to an “Ahmed Nur Said Elmi” at the time she was photographed next to a man who admits his name is Ahmed Nur Said Elmi, and that he is in the photo.
    • Samsundar published all of this information on how to contact Ahmed Nur Said Elmi a few months before Omar swore to that nine-question court document.
  • Rep. Omar has refused all inquiries from her constituents, elected officials, and media outlets to provide any specific evidence contradicting even a single allegation suggested by three years of now-public information.
  • In fact, Omar has responded by making information less available:
    • In August 2016, after Scott Johnson and Preya Samsundar posted the allegations, Omar’s verified social media accounts were taken offline.
    • Ahmed Nur Said Elmi’s social media accounts were also taken offline.
    • When the accounts returned, a large amount of potentially incriminating evidence had verifiably been deleted.
    • I found and published at least ten additional “before and after” instances of evidence still being deleted in 2018.
  • Omar has released carefully worded, Clintonian statements that denigrate those seeking answers from her as racists. Yet she has repeatedly refused to answer questions or issue anything other than public relations statements.
  • I have a large amount of information that we have not published for reasons including the protection of sources.

I believe Scott Johnson, Preya Samsundar, and me, with our three years of articles, columns and posts, have provided more than enough evidence to give law enforcement authorities probable cause to open an investigation. Now would be the chance for law enforcement, and especially for Rep. Ilhan Omar’s House colleagues, to make a sincere stand against corruption and for the uniform application of the law.

Once Again… It should be noted that by American law — When a marriage fraud is discovered, not only might the immigrant face severe immigration consequences, but both members of the marrying couple may face criminal penalties… An immigrant who is found to have committed marriage fraud would likely be removed from the United States (deported).

Please read this incredible report written by David Steingberg at Power Line today.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

ECB Studies Revamping Inflation Goal in Twilight of Draghi Era

A move that could embolden policy makers to pursue monetary stimulus for longer… Changing the goal itself would probably require a formal review, the officials said. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.  Bonds and stocks jumped on the report…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/ecb-studies-revamping-inflation-goal-in-twilight-of-draghi-era

Yields are so low that even junk bonds now have negative rates

About 2% of European high-yield bonds are offering negative yields, and it seems crazy there are that many…    https://qz.com/1667436/investors-are-buying-junk-bonds-with-negative-yields/

A booming manufacturing report just poked another hole in the Fed’s case for a rate cut

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index registered a reading of 21.8 in July, a major jump from 0.3 in June and head of Wall Street estimates for 5… new orders surged to 18.9 from 8.3. Prices paid, a key measure of inflationary pressures, also rose to 16.1 from 12.9…

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/07/18/philly-fed-report-pokes-another-hole-in-the-feds-case-for-a-rate-cut.html

Morgan Stanley Equity, FICC Trading, iBanking Revenues Tumble

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-18/morgan-stanley-equity-ficc-trading-ibanking-revenues-tumble

The Philly Fed report and the disappointing MS results generated an 8-handle ESU decline that ended with the NYSE open.  Traders, as you might expect, bought the NYSE open.  ESUs hit the session high of 2990 when the first hour of trading ended.  Then, ESUs and stocks tumbled.

A Noon Balloon appeared, abetted by the expectation of an afternoon rally ahead of expiry.  After trading sideways for about 1.5 hours, ESUs surged.  The rally was instigated by EXTREMELY dovish speech from NY Fed President Williams that suggests the Fed is comfortable driving rates to zero and instituting NIRP if necessary.  The verbal intervention to save the expiry manipulation arrived!!!

Living Life near the ZLB by NY Fed President John Williams

The experience of the global financial crisis and its aftermath… crossing the zero lower bound—has moved this from a mostly theoretical exercise to a very practicalone.  An added impetus to this research has been the growing evidence that the neutral rate of interest rate has fallen significantly…

    These very low neutral rates are a result of long-term structural factors slowing growth. They’re driven by demographic changes and slow productivity growth, which are unlikely to reverse any time soon…

    In particular, monetary policy can mitigate the effects of the ZLB in several ways:  The first: don’t keep your powder dry—that is, move more quickly to add monetary stimulus than you otherwise might when interest rates are in the vicinity of the ZLB…

    My second conclusion, which is to keep interest rates lower for longer… Finally,policies that promise temporarily higher inflation following ZLB episodes can help generate a faster recovery and better sustain price stability over the longer run…

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2019/wil190718

Fed’s Williams: Central Bank Must Act Quickly on Signs of Distress

New York Fed chief says aggressive action is required when interest rates are low

    “When you only have so much stimulus at your disposal, it pays to act quickly to lower rates at the first sign of economic distress,” he said…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-s-williams-central-bank-must-act-quickly-on-signs-of-distress-11563473872?mod=e2twcb

About 70 minutes after Williams’ comments hit the tape, Fed VCEO Clarida, on Fox Business, stated: “You don’t want to wait” until economic data turns decisively negative to act.  Clarida said the US is doing okay; but “global data has been disappointing.”  Another vote for preventive Fed rate cuts!!!

Williams and Clarida’s comments suggest that the Fed’s promise to be ‘data dependent’ was pure bull Schiff.  The academics at the Fed, who have a poor forecasting record, want us to trust that they are clairvoyant now.  Williams’ speech is one of the most dovish Fed speeches that we can recall.  There has to be a reason for his and Clarida’s panicky dovish braying – especially with some key US economic data being better than expected.  They must be petrified at the massive debt and the plight of banks like DB.

The intellectually dishonest Williams wants us to ignore the fact that if the global economy recedes it would confirm that ZIRP, QE and Japanese QQE were abject failures.

Gold surged on Williams’ indication that the Fed could go ‘Japan’ soon.  Gold rallied 2.4% from its daily low.  The S&P 500 Index rallied 0.84% from its daily low.  When gold greatly outperforms stocks…

The CME Fed Watch Tool shows Fed Funds Futures imply a 69% chance of a 50bp rate cut on July 31, up from 34.3% on Wednesday and 19.9% a week ago. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Stocks rolled over when the final hour appeared.  About 15:14 ET, Trump announced that the USS Boxer destroyed [via electronics?] an Iranian drone when it came with 1000 yards of the US Navy ship in the Strait of Hormuz.  This induced ESU and stock selling; but gold rallied to a new daily high.

Trump says he’s seriously looking into a Pentagon contract for Amazon or Microsoft because ‘we’re getting tremendous complaints’ – The contract is said to be worth up to $10 billion…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/trump-says-seriously-looking-into-amazons-pentagon-contract.html

Sen. @tedcruz: This witness, a respected academic, publicly SUPPORTED Hillary Clinton in 2016. Nevertheless, he’s deeply dismayed w/ his research showing that Google was deceptively manipulating millions to vote for her. If they do it again in 2020, he predicts it could flip 15 million votes.

https://twitter.com/BreitbartNews/status/1151614617556328448

Google’s White House Meetings – Since President Obama took office in January 2009 through October 31, 2015, employees of Google and associated entities visited the White House 427 times…

https://googletransparencyproject.org/articles/googles-white-house-meetings

U.S. Democratic candidate Warren targets private equity in new Wall Street proposals

She wants to make private-capital firms responsible for the debts of the companies they purchase… make the firms responsible for the pension obligations of the companies they purchase.

    Warren also proposed several tax-code changes that would alter the way the government treats the debt those companies create and how their profits are counted.  She would also change bankruptcy laws to make it easier for workers to obtain severance or pension payments if a company goes out of business.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-warren-idUSKCN1UD1WK

After the close, Boeing takes $4.9B after-tax charge for 737 Max problemshttp://cnbc.com/id/106027451

Today is July option expiration and a summer Friday.  Normally there is buying early on expiry.  The remainder of the session is a crapshoot.  Given the low volume and summer absenteeism, a determined few can dictate market action in the afternoon.

We stated in the two previous missives: Unless Trump or one of his minstrels surfaces to issue positive verbal intervention, stocks should continue to seek support.  The reason that stocks are now soft could be due to a critical mass of investors believing that global economics will trump central banks’ tired old easy credit schemes.

Williams and Clarida saved stocks on Thursday and resurrected the upward expiry manipulation.  Most people don’t realize how close to a technical breakdown stocks were on Thursday.

The S&P 500 Index’s daily MACD turned negative on Wednesday.  Barring a sudden spike in an index or stock, this is the first warning of a potential trend reversal.  Bloomberg Trender gives the confirmation signal of the trend.  A close below 2967.83 would generate a daily sell signal for the S&P 500 Index.  Its low on Thursday was 2973.09.  It wouldn’t have taken much selling to generate the sell confirmation.

ESUs rallied 12 handles last night on the expectations of early expiry buying and that uber-dove Bullard will echo Williams and Clarida’s panicky dovishness (speaks 11:10 ET).  But ESUs have lost the entire rally because the NY Fed took the highly unusual action of clarifying/rebutting Williams’ extremely dovish speech.  “This was an academic speech on 20 years of research. It was not about potential policy actions at the upcoming FOMC meeting.”… [ESUs are +8.00 at 20:00 ET on expiry-related buying.]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/fed-clarifies-williams-speech-that-market-took-as-signal-of-a-rate-cut.html

Gold surged $36 or 2.5% early last night.  Perhaps this is why the NY Fed decided to rebut Williams.

60% Believe Trump Likely to Win in 2020… Up From 46% in February

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Democrats believe any of them are likely to defeat him…

https://scottrasmussen.com/trump-likely-to-win-in-2020/

 

WaPo: Jeffrey Epstein denied bail, will remain jailed pending trial on sex trafficking charges

 

Vanity Fair: “It’s Going to Be Staggering, the Amount of Names”: As the Jeffrey Epstein Case Grows More Grotesque, Manhattan and DC Brace for Impact

A few years ago, he was a guest at a dinner in Palo Alto hosted by LinkedIn cofounder Reid Hoffman for the MIT neuroscientist Ed Boyden. At the dinner, Elon Musk introduced Epstein to Mark Zuckerberg. …

    One source who’s done business with Epstein told me that Epstein’s 21,000-square-foot townhouse on East 71st Street welcomed a steady stream of the Davos crowd in the past decade. The source said Bill Gates, Larry Summers, and Steve Bannon visited the house, which has been called one of the largest private residences in Manhattan. “Jeffrey collected people. That’s what he did,” the source said. Gates and Summers did not respond to requests for comment…

     One theory circulating among prominent Republicans is that Epstein was a Mossad agentAnother is that the George W. Bush White House directed Acosta not to prosecute Epstein to protect Prince Andrew on behalf of the British government, then the U.S.’s closest ally in the Iraq war…

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/07/jeffrey-epstein-case-grows-more-grotesque

 

[Fab 4] Rep. Omar introduces resolution defending boycott of Israel, likens it to boycotts of Nazi Germany, Soviet Union – While the resolution doesn’t explicitly name Israel or the pro-Palestinian Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, she told media outlets that the resolution concerns the Jewish state… “And it is an opportunity for us to explain why it is we support a nonviolent movement, which is the BDS movement,” she added…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/omar-introduces-resolution-defending-boycotts-of-israel-likens-it-to-boycott-of-nazi-germany-soviet-union

 

Liberal Democrats warn: We’ll sink minimum wage bill if moderates change it

Liberals were furious that the moderates had swung the debate, and the fallout included an unusual round of public — and personal — sniping between members of the groups… [The bill passed on Thursday am.]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/453531-liberal-democrats-warn-well-sink-minimum-wage-bill-if-moderates-change-it

 

@ABC: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says Pres. Trump’s rhetoric at his North Carolina rally put “millions of Americans at risk.”  [She slams ICE regularly, gets MSM pass even when violence appears]

 

Cassidy, Cruz: Antifa is a Domestic Terrorist Organization

U.S. Senators Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA) and Ted Cruz (R-TX) today introduced a resolution to the U.S. Senate condemning the violent acts carried out by members of Antifa and calling for the designation of the group as a domestic terrorist organization

https://www.cassidy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/cassidy-cruz-antifa-is-a-domestic-terrorist-organization

 

OAN’s @EmeraldRobinson: When the crowd at a Trump rally begins to shout “send her back!” it’s an international racist incident- but when Senate Democrats try to get @SebGorka deported for no legal reason it’s just fine. Do you see how the game is played?

 

@MZHemingway: When Dick Durbin and Jerry Nadler began a formal citizenship inquiry to threaten Seb Gorka for his political views, I have to be honest that I don’t remember the Twitter brigades freaking out about it. [or the MSM]

 

U.S. Senators Dick Durbin (D-IL), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), and Benjamin Cardin (D-MD) today pressed the Departments of Homeland Security and Justice to confirm whether senior White House counterterrorism advisor Sebastian Gorka is under investigation for falsifying his U.S. naturalization application by failing to disclose his membership in a Hungarian neo-Nazi organization…

https://www.durbin.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/senators-press-justice-homeland-security-departments-on-investigation-of-trump-aide-sebastian-gorka

 

Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) is asking the White House to hand President Trump aide Sebastian Gorka’s immigration paperwork over to the House Judiciary Committee…

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/324404-dem-rep-asks-white-house-for-sebastian-gorkas-immigration

 

Chicago’s [Mayor] Lightfoot Demands State-Taxpayer Bailout, Then Offers CTU [Chicago Teachers’ Union] a 5-year Contract, 14% Raise    

   CPS’ per student spending has doubled since 2000 according to ISBE, even as the district’s enrollment has fallen by nearly 75,000 students, or 17 percent, over the same time period… In 2017, the Chicago Tribune examined the demographics of some of the most underpopulated schools in Chicago. It found the enrollment of the 17 worst schools has dropped from nearly 20,000 in 2008 to just over 4,600 today.Their buildings are, on average, filled to just 20 percent capacity…

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-18/chicagos-lightfoot-demands-state-taxpayer-bailout-then-offers-ctu-5-year-contract

 

Colorado State: ‘Avoid’ using ‘Americans,’ ‘America’

The university’s Inclusive Language Guide also claims that “handicap parking,” “male,” and “female” should be avoided, along with many other common words and phrases…

    By referring to the U.S. as America, the guide claims that one “erases other cultures and depicts the United States as the dominant American country.”… [Are whackos trying to make DJT president for life?]  https://www.campusreform.org/?ID=13460

Well that is all for today

 

Let us close with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter of uSAWatchdog interviewing James Rickards

Who Bails Out Central Banks in Coming Chaos –James Rickards

By Greg Hunter On July 19, 2019

(This in-depth interview (more than 1 hour) will take the place of the Weekly News Wrap-Up and the Early Sunday Release. )

Best-selling financial author James Rickards says “We are still in the aftermath of the 2008 – 2009 financial crisis.” In the up-coming book titled “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos,” the crisis of the Great Recession may be over, but “nothing is fixed.” Rickards explains, “I understand the economy has been expanding for 10 years, and we are not in a liquidity crisis at the moment and unemployment is low. We have come a long way from that. The fundamental problems that gave rise to that have not been solved. . . . So, unlimited guarantees, unlimited money printing and unlimited currency swaps and, yeah, they truncated the crisis, but all that happened was the bad debts, the leverage and the problems were now lifted up to the central bank level. You’ve got this progression. First, it is the hedge fund. Then, it’s Wall Street. Now, it’s the central banks. Who is going to bail out the central banks? That problem has not been solved, and it’s still on the table.”

Rickards says don’t think the Federal Reserve is going to come in and ride to the rescue in what Rickards is predicting to be a “coming chaos.” Rickards contends, “Interest rates are 2.25%, but that is not what you need to get out of a recession. I am not predicting one, but if the U.S. economy went into a recession . . . history in economics says you need to cut interest rates 4% to 5% to get the U.S. out of a recession. How do you cut interest rates 4% when you are at 2.25%? You can’t because there is not enough room. You get to 0% pretty quickly, and now what do you do? You are still in a recession and you go to QE4 (money printing), but how do you do that when the Fed balance sheet is at $4 trillion. You are at a boundary. You are at a confidence limit. So, the Fed is not ready for the next recession, and they can’t get there.”

Rickards is not seeing a recession anytime soon. In fact, he is not forecasting a recession until after the 2020 Presidential Election. What does that mean for the chances of a second Trump Presidency? Rickards says, “If you put recession odds at 35%, and that is probably high, then the inverse of 65% is his probability of winning. . . . Every month that goes by, the odds of a recession by next summer go down. So, the odds of Trump winning go up. . . . I don’t want to debate the economics of the Fed and what they are doing, but the Fed is doing what it needs to do to avoid a recession, and that improves Trump’s odds. Right now, I have Trump as the winner.”

After the 2020 Presidential Election, Rickards is much less optimistic and so are the wealthy elite.  Rickards says, “The rich are building bunkers. Entrepreneurs are actually buying abandoned missile siloes with armed guards and steel doors. . . . Here’s another interesting thing, hedge fund billionaires may trade stocks, bonds and currencies all day long, but when you ask them where do you have your own money, every one of them that I have spoken to have gold, physical gold. . . . They all have gold. They don’t trade it, but they have it.”

Rickards covers a lot of ground in this in-depth interview that is more than one hour in length. Rickards talks about the new gold (and silver) bull market, what everybody, especially the small investors, needs to buy now, and talks about a gold price that is exponentially higher than today’s price. Rickards discusses the world’s massive debt, probability of big defaults and huge inflation all coming in the “Aftermath” of the coming crisis. Rickards also tells people what they can do to protect themselves.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with James Rickards, multiple best- selling author of a new book titled “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos.”

-END-

I will see you Monday night.

 

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