JULY 22/GOLD UP A TINY 80 CENTS TO $1426.80 BUT SILVER ADVANCES A HUGE 21 CENTS//A MASSIVE 10.56 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/A MASSIVE 8.939 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER ADDED TO THE SLV///FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER TO SILVER ENTERS THE COMEX, NO SILVER LEAVES THE COMEX AND ADJUSTMENTS//HUGE NUMBER OF IRAN STORIES FOR YOU TO READ TONIGHT//CHRIS POWELL TAKES ON LONDON’S FINANCIAL TIMES WRITER MARTIN WOLF//MANY SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD: $1426.60  UP $0.80 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

Silver:  $16.38 UP 21 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1425.50

 

silver:  $16.37

 

YOUR DATA…

 

COMEX DATA

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 7/19

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,425.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/19/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 07/23/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 7
690 C ABN AMRO 6
737 C ADVANTAGE 7 12
905 C ADM 6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 19 19
MONTH TO DATE: 940

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 19 NOTICE(S) FOR 1900 OZ (0.0590 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  940 NOTICES FOR 94000 OZ  (2.9237 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

61 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 305,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4009 for   20,045,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $  DOWN 119 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE DOWN 332

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL  SIZED 799 CONTRACTS FROM 231,429 DOWN TO 230,630 WITH THE 0 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 2274 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2274 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2274 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2274 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.37 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 0 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

21.350 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY

 

WE HAD CONSIDERABLE COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX FRIDAY ..AND ZERO SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY:

26,763 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 26,763 CONTRACTS) OR 133.815 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1784 CONTRACTS OR 8.921 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY:  133.815 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.49% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1291.42   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 799, WITH THE 0 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2274 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG  SIZED: 1475 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2274 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 799  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 0 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.17 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.171 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 167% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 61 NOTICE(S) FOR 305,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 21.350 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9838 CONTRACTS, TO 633,013 ACCOMPANYING THE  $1.00 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION HAS STOPPED AND MOST LIKELY THE SIGNAL WAS GIVEN TO LIQUIDATE SOME OF THOSE CONTRACTS FOR GOLD AS WE ARE APPROACHING FIRST DAY NOTICE NEXT WEEK.

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 15,755 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 15,755 CONTRACTS, DEC>  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 633,013,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5917 CONTRACTS: 9838 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 15,755 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5917 CONTRACTS OR 591,700 OZ OR 18.40 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF $1.00 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT SMALL LOSS IN  PRICE, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 18.40  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.

 

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE WILL WITNESS THE MORPHING OF OUR SPREADERS OUT OF SILVER AND INTO GOLD AS THE JULY MONTH PROCEEDS INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST. 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

IT SEEMS THAT THE SIGNAL WAS GIVEN TO START THEIR LIQUIDATION RIGHT ON TIME, ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE……

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 130,742 CONTRACTS OR 13,074,200 oz OR 406.66 TONNES (14 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9338 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 406.66 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 406.66/3550 x 100% TONNES =8.97% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3444.47  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 9838 WITH THE SMALL PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($1.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 15,855 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 15,855 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5917 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

15,755 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 9838 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 18.40 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.00 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAS NOW STOPPED WITH SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD AS WE NOW ENTER THE LIQUIDATION PHASE OF THE SPREADING ACTIVITY/ THIS ACTIVITY SURELY HAD AN EFFECT ON PRICE

 

 

 

we had:  19 notice(s) filed upon for 1900 oz of gold at the Comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $0.80 TODAY//  THE FRAUD CONTINUES UNABATED:

 

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: TWO MASSIVE PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF  A) 5.87  TONNES THIS MORNING  AND B ) ANOTHER 4.69 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON

TOTAL 10.56 TONNES WHEN THERE IS NO PHYSICAL GOLD AROUND

WHAT A FRAUD!

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 825.18 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY:

 

ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 799 CONTRACTS from 231,429 DOWN TO 230,630 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN GOLD AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN SILVER

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JULY: 0 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 2274  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2274 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 799  CONTRACTS TO THE 2274 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1475 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.375 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 21.350 MILLION OZ STANDING SO FAR.

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 0 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2274 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.23 POINTS OR 1.27%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 394.14 POINTS OR 1.37%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 50.20 POINTS OR 0.23%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .07%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8805 /Oil DOWN TO 56.36 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.37 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8805 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8794 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3c  CHINA

i)Millions of barrels of Iranian crude are stored at Chinese ports but this oil is not entering China and supposedly this is not breaking USA sanctions.  China seems to be the only country buying oil as Iran;s economy is faltering by the minute

(zerohedge)

ii)Trump now sanctions one of the Chinese companies that have been importing Iranian oil

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ITALY

Seems that Salvini has had enough of the gypsies: he plans to raid “illegal settlements’ and deport them

(zerohedge)

ii)GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK

A good account on the staggering problems facing Deutsche bank as they face melting down due to the huge amount of derivatives that have been underwritten by them.  They are terribly offside in  their short positions on gold and silver
(Michael Snyder)

iii)UK

67 Labour party members attack Corbyn over his anti Jewish sentiment.  Their aim is to oust the opposition leader.
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iv)Europe’s mistakes in their acceptance of a horrifying deal with Iran in 2015.  It could come back to haunt them(Gatestone)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN/UK

Saturday:

The UK warns it will give a “robust” response if Iran does not release the tanker held by Iran.  As of Monday, no response yet.

(zerohedge)

ii)Iran releases the first footage of the UK seized oil tanker

(zerohedge)

iii)The real story behind the Iran/USA Saudi saga

(Tom Luongo)

iv)IRAN/USA

Trump will surely be angry a this:  A supposed CIA spy ring is sentenced to death in Iran.  Tensions between Iran and the USA are now at the boiling point.
(zerohedge)
iv  b)UK/EU/Iran
Well that did not take long:  The UK announces a joint European task force to patrol the Perisan Gulf
(zerohedge)

v)Turkey

We have been covering this story for the past several months.  It seems that Turkey is set to invade Cyprus to get a stranglehold on the huge gas discovery.
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

A short but excellent presentation from Graham Summers as he outlines the 3 key ares which can bring down the financial system

(courtesy Graham Summers)

July 22, 2019

7. OIL ISSUES

Nick Cunningham explains why USA shale is doomed no matter what happens

(zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)From the London Financial Times: they seem to be beginning to stop sneering at gold

(Sanderson/London’s Financial Times)

ii)A must read for all:  the truth behind paper gold and silver

(Ronan Manly/Bullionstar)

iii)This is also a must read..Chris Powell takes on London’s Financial times Martin Wolf who continues to call gold a “barbaric relic” of the past.  The newspaper continues to cling to Keynesian philosophies which are dead wrong.

( Chris Powell/Martin Wolf/London Financial Times)

iv)Chris Powell was very busy this weekend as he reviews gold price suppression with Franklin Sanders of the Moneychanger

(courtesy Chris powell/Sanders/Money Changer)

v)North west Russia is the site of a new huge gold mine that will go into production.  It is the largest national park in Europe(London’s Telegraph)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Chicago fed’s National Activity index falls for the 7th straight month

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories)

a)Interesting: despite plenty of improvements, trump has not built a single mile of new border fencing

(zerohedge)

b)NY experiences its 2nd weekend of power failures..

(zerohedge)
c)USA is now back to the air bases in Saudi Arabia…the same procedures used during all previous middle east wars.

( Michael Snyder)

d)Boeing drops after Fitch lowers its rating to single A as well as a possible further downgrade

 

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a  1.)Raul Meijer explains why Jeffery Epstein will be murdered

(courtesy Raul Meijer.)

a  2.Giuliani:  The Epstein case is going to implicate a lot of people

(zerohedge)

b)The real story behind Ilhan Omar.  Her father was a key player in the genocidal Barre regime.  The family escape Somali and changed their name to enter the uSA. Ilhan married her brother so he could enter the USA

(courtesy Gateway/Hoft)

c)It is now coming out that the FBI under Comey was leading a case against Trump even though privately he told the President that he was not a target and that is not true. Horowitz can charge Comey criminally for misleading the President.

(zerohedge)

d)

Schiff is one big clown:  now he says that the Inspector General’s work is tainted ahead of his report.
(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9838 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 633,013 ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL LOSS OF $1.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING). WE ARE NOW IN THE LIQUIDATION PHASE OF OUR SPREADERS OPERATION!!

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED GIGANTIC SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 15,755 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 15,755 CONTRACTS: DEC: 0   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  15,755 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 5917 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 15,755 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A LARGE SIZED 9838 COMEX CONTRACTS THE BANKERS STARTED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THEIR SPREADING OPERATION AND THAT SURELY HAD AN EFFECT ON PRICE DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX TRADING. 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  5917 CONTRACTS OR 591,700 OZ OR 18.40 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON  active contract month of JULY and here the open interest stands at 27 CONTRACTS as we LOST 46 contracts.  We had 51 notices filed yesterday so we surprisingly  gained 5 contracts or 500 oz of gold that will stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the Comex  as they will now try their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here. We usually witness queue jumping in silver immediately after first day notice but not gold. That has changed as we now witness queue jumping in the comex gold arena on a continual basis.. The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI FELL by a 30,525 contracts DOWN to 290,181.(of which some of this was the spreading liquidation). The next non active month is September and here the OI FELL by 68 contracts DOWN to 1038.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI rose by 1840 contracts up to 25,965.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 19 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  1900 OZ. (0.0590 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 799 CONTRACTS FROM 231,429 UP TO 230,630 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S SMALL  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 0 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.  HERE WE HAVE 322 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A GAIN OF 46 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 15 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 61 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 305,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. AFTER JULY WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST AND HERE WE LOST 41 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1142.  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 2921 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 158,504 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 61 notice(s) filed for 305,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 269,557  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  594,772  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JULY/GOLD

JULY 22/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
32.15 oz
MANFRA
ONE   KILOBAR
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
19 notice(s)
 600 OZ
(0.0590 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
8 contracts
(800 oz)
0.02488 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
940 notices
94,000 OZ
2.9237 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ a zero amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

i) out of Manfra: 32.15 oz

 

total gold withdrawals; 32.15 oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JULY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 19 contract(s) of which 1 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 7 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (940) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY. (27 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (19 x 100 oz per contract) equals 94,800 OZ OR 2.9486 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JULY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (940 x 100 oz)  + (27)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (19 x 100 oz )which equals 94,800 oz standing OR 2.9486 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JULY.

We GAINED 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.0438 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 2.9486  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  322,825.827 oz or  10.0412 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,749,866.449 oz 241.053 tonnes

IN THE LAST 33 MONTHS 115 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
JULY 22 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 nil oz

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
61
CONTRACT(S)
(305,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
261 contracts
 1,305,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4009 contracts

20,045,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

wow!! this is probably the first time since inception that the silver comex has no transactions

no silver deposit, no silver withdrawal and no adjustments.

silver must now be very scarce in NY

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into everybody else:  zero

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 0 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total nil  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

total dealer silver:  93.110 million

total dealer + customer silver:  307.104 million oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2019. contract month is represented by 61 contract(s) FOR 305,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4009 x 5,000 oz = 20,045,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY. (322) and the number of notices served upon today (61 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 4009 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (322) number of notices served upon today (61)x 5000 oz equals 21,350,000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.

WE GAINED 61 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 305,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS. SOMEBODY WAS BADLY IN NEED OF PHYSICAL METAL  (BOTH GOLD AND SILVER) ON THIS SIDE OF POND TODAY.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 15 notice(s) filed for 75,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  94,492 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 185,501 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 185,501 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 927 million  OZ 132.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.75.% ((JULY 22/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.03% to NAV (JULY 18/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.75%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.18 TRADING 13.77/DISCOUNT 2.90

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP 0.80 CENTS: TWO MASSIVE PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 5.87 TONNES AND 4.69 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD..THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 825.18 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: ANOTHER 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD REMOVED AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD AT THE COMEX/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.61 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JULY 22/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 824.18 tonnes

*IN LAST 627 TRADING DAYS: 109.58 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 527 TRADING DAYS: A NET 56.10 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.575 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/2019:

 

 

Inventory 355.919 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.23/ and libor 6 month duration 2.14

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .09

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.16%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.15

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = –.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

PIMCO: “Currency Cold War” May See Gold Soar Higher

One of the most well informed investment analysts in the business, Joachim Fels, has warned that we are in a “currency cold war” which may see gold soar much higher.

Fels is the global economic adviser at Pimco – the Californian bond asset management behemoth which has $1.76 trillion in assets under management.

Yesterday he made an astute and insightful comment regarding the current state of play between the global super powers on CNBC’s Squawk Bob :

“If there is a winner in this ‘cold currency war,’ it’s going to be the U.S. in the sense that the dollar is more likely to weaken than strengthen from here”.

A currency cold war is where currencies are openly manipulated by governments in order to make their goods cheaper and more competitive in foreign markets.

Clearly, we are getting back into the situation where everybody would like to see a weaker currency. Nobody, no central bank, really wants a stronger currency and that’s why it’s a cold currency war”. 

Click Here to Listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Having a cheaper currency has short term benefits – your goods are automatically more competitively priced. It involves the manipulation of interest rates, currency trading, Quantitative Easing, and in essence a “Do what ever it takes” approach to monetary policy, not to keep inflation in check, not to manage employment, but to win against a perceived aggressor, in this case China and Europe.

It is a winner tales all, competitive mind set, where if you are not winning you are losing. For policy wonks it also spells the end of the Rules Based International order where western allies, sought to reduce barriers to trade, increase cooperation and raise all boats together, or so the stated intention was said to be.

As Rickards pointed out in his book Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis

It is one thing when prices drift downward over time due to innovation, scalability or other efficiencies. This might be considered “good” deflation and is familiar to any contemporary consumer who has seen prices of computers or wide-screen TVs fall year after year. It is another matter when prices are forced down by unnecessary monetary contraction, credit constraints, deleveraging, business failures, bankruptcies and mass unemployment. This may be considered “bad” deflation. This bad deflation was exactly what was required in order to return the most important currencies to their prewar parity with gold.”

In recent days the pronouncements of the Fed heads has been to talk up preventative measures to stimulate the economy and get ahead of any slow down. This means that they are in essence turning pro-cyclical, pushing up asset prices in order to stave off the consequences of a downturn.

The reason is clear, because of the amount of money printing and asset price pumping of the past 10 years (the S&P looks very toppy at 429% of its March 2009 level), with 20 Trillion in new currency being pumped into the financial system.

Any economic weakness or loss of market confidence could cause lofty indexes to tumble under the weight of bankruptcies brought on by higher market interest rates. One Fed chief feels that there is a 50/50 chance the Fed will ease in July by 50 basis points.

Watch gold in these markets, it is the canary in the increasingly unstable mine!

News and Commentary

Gold Seen Nearing $1,500 as Dollar Sags

Iran Announces Gold Backed National Cryptocurrency

Major Gold Bull Markets Are Rare, but Some Investors Are Betting One is Here

The Guardian View on Iran’s Seizure of a British Tanker: Dangerous Waters AheadEditorial

Why This Gold Rally Feels Different

FT’s Martin Wolf: Who Cares About the Prices of Useless Metals and Market Rigging?

LBMA Gold Prices (AM/ PM Fix – USD, GBP & EUR)

19-Jul-19 1437.05 1439.70, 1148.06 1148.88 & 1278.11 1281.48
18-Jul-19 1420.90 1417.45, 1139.70 1135.94 & 1264.74 1263.51
17-Jul-19 1400.80 1410.35, 1129.61 1135.61 & 1249.09 1256.90
16-Jul-19 1416.10 1409.85, 1136.85 1134.79 & 1260.05 1256.88
15-Jul-19 1416.25 1412.40, 1127.76 1127.24 & 1255.93 1253.79
12-Jul-19 1405.60 1407.60, 1122.23 1122.14 & 1248.74 1251.50
11-Jul-19 1423.10 1413.75, 1135.06 1126.62 & 1262.72 1255.83
10-Jul-19 1395.45 1408.30, 1117.34 1126.78 & 1243.35 1252.68
09-Jul-19 1387.90 1391.55, 1113.51 1115.61 & 1239.39 1241.54

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ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

From the London Financial Times: they seem to be beginning to stop sneering at gold

(Sanderson/London’s Financial Times)

For a few paragraphs the Financial Times stops sneering at gold

 Section: 

Tumbling Bond Yields Kindle Investor Demand for Gold

By Henry Sanderson
Financial Times, London
Friday, July 19, 2019

https://www.ft.com/content/1a7b2212-a6fe-11e9-b6ee-3cdf3174eb89

Colleagues used to ask Jim Luke why he had so much faith in gold — a metal that just sits in portfolios, offering no income.

“People involved in gold often get accused of being ‘goldbugs,’ or being cranks or eccentrics,” mused the Schroders fund manager, based in London. “I’ve had people ask me, ‘isn’t it odd to have such faith in an inert metal that gives you no yield and has little functional value?'”

Not lately, though. These days, the conversation is changing as fears rise about the fate of the global economy and bond yields continue to fall — pushing the total amount of bonds that provide a negative yield to almost $13tn by the latest count, up from $6tn in October, according to data from Barclays. The correlation between the growing volume of negative-yielding bonds and the rising value of gold is striking.

In normal times buying gold means investors miss out on earning interest on other assets such as bonds and stocks, the so-called “opportunity cost” of buying the precious metal. “Holding gold in a meaningful way within portfolios can be a costly exercise over the long term,” said Matthew Yeates, a fund manager at Seven Investment Management.

But tumbling yields have erased that problem, at least for the time being.

Gold is increasingly seen by investors as one of the few solid hedges against the possibility of a US slowdown, analysts say, particularly amid growing expectations that further rate cuts by central banks will fail to lift global growth.

“Gold as a zero-yielding asset will look even more attractive versus an asset that is guaranteed to lose money,” said Paul Wong, a former senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management.

Investors have turned to gold instead of bonds to protect against any downturn in the US stock market as it continues to hit record highs, according to George Milling-Stanley, head of gold strategy at State Street Global Advisors.

“The best news in financial markets is the extraordinary performance of the US equity market, but it’s also the thing that makes me wake up at three in the morning sweating,” he said.

“The bond market is not acting as a reliable hedge against equity weakness in the way that everyone expected it to and it hasn’t operated that way since 2008. Gold is providing better protection against potential equity weakness right now than bonds are.”

Billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio said in a LinkedIn post on Wednesday that in a negative yield environment it “would be both risk-reducing and return-enhancing to consider adding gold to one’s portfolio.”

Having languished between $1,050 and $1,375 a troy ounce for five years, gold broke through that barrier to hit a six-year high above $1,400 in late June.

That move higher has been sustained by inflows into gold-backed exchange traded funds, which rose to a five-year high of 74 million ounces of gold last week worth $105 billion. That is 17.7 million less than an all-time peak of 92 million ounces of gold held by ETFs in 2011, at the height of the eurozone debt crisis.

“Brokers who three months ago struggled to get clients to pick up the phone to them on gold are now filling rooms with interested participants,” said Mr Luke.

A further rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, as expected by the market, could add support to gold, by further lowering bond yields and weakening the dollar, according to Singapore’s OCBC Bank. A strong dollar is normally bad for gold because it makes it more expensive for buyers in other currencies.

Gold could rise to $1,500 a troy ounce by the end of 2019, the bank said this week.

Still, investors in gold do have to either pay a management fee to buy gold-backed ETFs or storage costs to a vault to hold physical gold bars.

Robert-Jan van der Mark, co-manager of the Kames Global Diversified Growth Fund, said he preferred US Treasuries as a safe haven because their price volatility was lower than gold and it was not necessary to pay storage costs.

“We would like to be rewarded for the higher level of risk and the storage cost drag [of gold],” he said. “For now we maintain a preference for the US Treasuries, as the safe and diversifying building block in our portfolio … at least until real rates turn negative by a significant margin.”

But among gold fund managers, at least, that view holds little truck.

“Long term, holding gold is less about faith in gold itself,” said Mr. Luke at Schroders, who co-manages the Global Gold fund, which is up by 31 per cent this year. “[It’s] more about lack of faith in other things, most obviously faith in the sustainability of equity market valuations and more importantly faith in the ability of central banks to maintain monetary order.”

* * *

END

A must read for all:  the truth behind paper gold and silver

(Ronan Manly/Bullionstar)

 

Ronan Manly: Gold and silver price manipulation is the greatest trick ever pulled

 Section: 

10:48p ET Friday, July 19, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold and silver market manipulation by governments, central banks, and bullion banks is so well documented now as to be beyond obvious, Bullion Star researcher Ronan Manly writes tonight. But the bigger manipulation, Manly concludes, is the very structure of the monetary metals markets themselves.

… 

Manly writes: “Manipulating gold and silver prices by spoofing futures trades and canceling them is one thing. Central bank intervention into physical gold markets to dampen the gold price is another. But perhaps the most far-reaching yet unappreciated method of manipulation is sitting there in plain sight, and that is the very structure of the contemporary ‘gold’ and ‘silver’ markets, where prices are established by trading in vast quantities of fractionally-backed synthetic gold and silver credit, be it in the form of vast quantities of unallocated positions that are ‘gold’ or ‘silver’ in name only, or in the form of gold and silver futures that haven’t the slightest connection with CME-approved precious metals vaults and warehouses.

“By siphoning off demand for real gold and silver and channeling it into unbacked or fractionally-backed credits and futures, the central banks and their bullion bank counterparts have done an amazing job in creating an entire market structure of futures and synthetics trading that is unconnected to the physical gold and silver markets. This structure siphons demand away from the physical precious metals markets, and, in doing so, creates a system of price discovery that has nothing to do with physical gold and silver supply and demand.”

Manly’s analysis is headlined “Gold and Silver Price Manipulation — The Greatest Trick Ever Pulled” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/gold-silver-price-manipula…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

This is also a must read..Chris Powell takes on London’s Financial times Martin Wolf who continues to call gold a “barbaric relic” of the past.  The newspaper continues to cling to Keynesian philosophies which are dead wrong.

(courtesy Chris Powell/Martin Wolf/London Financial Times)

FT’s Martin Wolf: Who cares about the prices of useless metals and market rigging?

 Section: 

Not the Financial Times, but central banks disagree.

* * *

2:15p ET Sunday, July 21, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

At least the Financial Times now has come clean about its hostility to gold — as well as to free markets and elementary journalism.

This weekend GATA’s friend Chris Kniel of Orinda, California, sent to the newspaper’s chief economic columnist, Martin Wolf, the excellent summary of gold and silver market manipulation just written by Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly, “Gold and Silver Price Manipulation — The Greatest Trick Ever Pulled”:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/gold-silver-price-manipula…

Wolf replied derisively and dismissively: “This is a matter of absolutely no importance whatsoever. Who cares about the prices of useless metals?”

… 

Stunned by such a counterfactual assertion, Kniel prompted Wolf to elaborate, receiving this from the FT columnist: “I mean to dismiss the whole monetary history of gold. It has no significance in the modern world. It is, as Keynes said, a barbarous relic.”Actually, Keynes’ “barbarous relic” remark was made not about gold itself but about the gold standard for currencies. Keynes wasn’t denying gold’s use as money. But that is the least of the problems with Wolf’s reply.

Who cares about the prices of useless metals? “No significance in the modern world”?

For starters, governments themselves care. That’s why central banks, against Wolf’s advice, continue to hold huge inventories of gold and lately have been increasing them. It’s why central banks classify gold as a Tier 1 asset, equivalent to government-issue bonds and cash. It’s why central banks constantly trade the metal and its derivatives surreptitiously, directly and through the Bank for International Settlements, usually to restrain the metal’s price, recognizing that gold is a determinant of currency values, interest rates, and government bond prices. It’s why the International Monetary Fund forbids its members from formally linking their currencies to gold, lest the metal gain precedence over government-issued currencies.

Further, London is the center of the world’s gold trading, the bullion banks are major employers there, and the FT is based in London, so the newspaper itself ordinarily might care.

Of course Wolf’s dismissing “the whole monetary history of gold” doesn’t make that history disappear. Indeed, today Agence France-Presse distributed a report about gold’s monetary history that is both fascinating and tragic, gold’s history being a big part of human history:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/buried-treasure-poses-holocaust-puzzle-hungar…

But Manly’s essay at Bullion Star wasn’t only about gold and silver. It was also about largely secret market rigging by government, and the Financial Times says it’s in the business of reporting about markets. So is market rigging by government of no concern to Wolf as well? Since such market rigging is now so pervasive — for years now there have really been no markets anymore, just central bank interventions — why does any reader need someone of Wolf’s views of journalism? And if Wolf’s indifference to both history and market rigging really represents the FT, what does anyone need the newspaper for, except possibly disinformation?

For years GATA has been supplying FT journalists with documentation of surreptitious intervention in the gold market by governments and central banks. At least twice your secretary/treasurer has delivered such documentation to FT staffers face to face in London — in 2011 to the journalist who is now chairman of the newspaper’s editorial board and U.S. editor at large, Gillian Tett, and in 2017 to FT reporter Thomas Hale.

Tett took enough notice to mention GATA in a column in the newspaper without ever pursuing the issue of market manipulation and without ever putting a critical question to a central bank:

http://gata.org/node/10591

Hale listened politely for 45 minutes, asking a few questions, perhaps not realizing that the FT would never permit him to commit journalism with this issue. Maybe Wolf himself told Hale that market rigging by governments doesn’t matter or at least must not be revealed.

But in fairness to the FT, it must be noted that GATA long has been providing the same documentation to many other mainstream financial news organizations around the world with not much more satisfactory results, though a major story might be gained just by asking the U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury Departments to specify the markets in which they are secretly trading and why, and then reporting their refusals to answer, and then by asking the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission whether it has jurisdiction over secret manipulative trading by the U.S. government or its agents or if such trading is legal. For more than a year those agencies have refused to answer those questions for a member of Congress:

http://gata.org/node/18210

http://gata.org/node/18832

Also in fairness to the FT, let it be acknowledged that most monetary metals mining companies don’t care, or pretend not to care, about the suppression of the prices of their products. But then mining companies are terribly vulnerable to governments for their mining permits, royalty requirements, and enforcement of environmental regulations, and to their bankers, most of whom are formally government agents in financial markets.

By contrast news organizations in the West and in some places in the East are free, at least nominally. So what are they afraid of? What is the FT afraid of? What is Wolf afraid of? Is it not getting invited to the Bank of England’s Christmas party? Or is it the revelation that the conventional wisdom on which he bases his pontification is a bit off?

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END
Chris Powell was very busy this weekend as he reviews gold price suppression with Franklin Sanders of the Moneychanger
(courtesy Chris powell/Sanders/Money Changer)

GATA secretary reviews gold price suppression policy with Franklin Sanders’ The Moneychanger

 Section: 

9:30a ET Saturday, July 20, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Monetary metals advocate Franklin Sanders interviewed your secretary/treasurer for the June edition of his newsletter, The Moneychanger (https://the-moneychanger.com/), covering the longstanding but largely surreptitious central bank policy of market intervention to suppress the price of gold. In the interview your secretary/treasurer cites and explains much of the documentation of the policy. With Sanders’ kind permission the newsletter is posted in PDF format at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/MoneychangerInterview-06-2019.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

North west Russia is the site of a new huge gold mine that will go into production.  It is the largest national park in Europe

(London’s Telegraph)

Russia plans to rezone Europe’s largest national park to develop gold mine

 Section: 

By Alec Luhn
The Telegraph, London
Sunday, July 21, 2019

MOSCOW — Russian officials are planning to rezone the largest national park in Europe to allow gold mining in a move activists say could put all nature reserves here under threat.

At more than 1.9 million hectares, Yugyd Va national park in northwestern Russia is even bigger than the reserve around Iceland’s Vatnajökull glacier and forms part of the country’s oldest Unesco natural heritage site, the “virgin Komi forests.”

It encompasses some of the most extensive untouched boreal forests in the world, the highest peak in the Ural Mountains. and tributaries of the Pechora River, the lifeblood of the indigenous Komi people.

But according to documents seen by The Daily Telegraph, the Komi region is now working with the federal government to remove protections from areas containing the Chudnoye (“Wonderful”) deposit, which holds an estimated 80 tonnes of gold long coveted by mining companies.

In a letter to the natural resources minister in October, the head of Komi claimed that rezoning part of the park for mining would create jobs for those left unemployed as the region’s coal industry dies out. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/21/russia-plans-rezone-europes-…

END

iii) Other physical stories:

This ought to be fun:  Iran announces a new gold backed national cryptocurrency. I just checked, they have 0 gold oz as reserves.

So we wish them the best of launching this crypto.

courtesy Adam Slater

and special thanks to Koos Jansen for sending this to us..

Iran Announces Gold Backed National Cryptocurrency

<img class=”i-amphtml-intrinsic-sizer” style=”max-width: 100%; display: block !important;” role=”presentation” src=”data:;base64,” alt=”” aria-hidden=”true” />Iran gold backed national crptocurrency

The Tehran News agency has reported that Iran intends to launch a gold-backed cryptocurrency. This comes less than a week after President Trump slammed virtual currencies on Twitter amid tensions between the historic foes. The New agency reported the development on its English website.

Accordingly, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) has approved the issuance of new cryptocurrencies. This is according to the CEO of Iranian Information and Communication Technology (ICT) FANAP, Shahab Javanmardi.

Shahab described the measure as follows:

“Iran’s cryptocurrency will be supported by gold, but its function is similar to other cryptocurrencies. The crypto asset is designed to maximize the use of Iranian frozen bank assets.”

As a matter of fact, banks like Parsian Bank, Bank Pasargad, Bank Melli Iran and Bank Mellat were working with blockchain startup Kuknos Company on this as early as January. The Financial Tribune reported that the gold-backed cryptocurrency project will be called Paymon.

The Legal Status of Cryptocurrency in Iran

The Iranian government had earlier this year signaled some opposition to Bitcoin and mining in general. This is because the government decried the use of power which is a feature of cryptocurrency mining. Notably, power is subsidized in Iran and many miners took advantage of this opportunity to have large mining farms.

Mehr news reported that CBI was looking to ban private cryptocurrency and encryption services like in China. That said, the status of Bitcoin in the legal system is still quite unclear. Different government agencies have given conflicting positions in the recent past. In this regard, the conundrum of crypto regulation is as unclear in Iran as it is in most countries globally.

Accordingly, Javanmardi urged the government to retain its policy on limiting Bitcoin in Iran. This is because authorities seized 1,000 bitcoin mining machines in Yazd Province just last month. The Iranian government seems keen on ensuring that Bitcoin miners don’t profit off its considerably cheap power costs.

Ironically, the American government has accused the Iranian government of actually using Bitcoin to circumvent sanctions. This is because Bitcoin is immutable and not subject to centralized control. Therefore, the Iranian government seems to have a “do as I say and not as I do” stance on Bitcoin.

The Role of Politics 

Cryptocurrency in 2019 is undoubtedly becoming a political hot potato. This is because governments have realized that they cannot afford to ignore cryptocurrency. The announcement of the Libra project by Facebook, in particular, has brought unprecedented regulatory attention.

The Trump administration has been historically tough on Iran. With sanctions coming thick and fast, every avenue of commerce and politics is an avenue for battle. There is a direct correlation between the collapse of a country’s currency and warming up to cryptocurrency. Venezuela has also signaled intentions to develop petroleum backed cryptocurrency to deal with similar hyperinflation issues.

Iran is similarly in the middle of currency turmoil after more sanctions from the USA. The fact that cryptocurrency is a way to escape the monopoly of SWIFT transfer in finance is lucrative. As such the country is simply taking a logical measure to cope.

Iran is not alone in exploring cryptocurrency. In fact, more than 70 percent of the world’s central banks are looking at the impact of such a coin. The announcement by the Central bank of Iran will certainly up the ante.

end
Russia added 600,00 oz or 18.6 tonnes of gold to its reserves.  With its latest figures  Russia,  produced approximately 279 tonnes of gold last year or 23 tonnes per month.  No amount of gold ever leaves Russia so in essence Russia is not putting all of these production of gold into official reserves but some of its gold is parked at banks in the same manner as China.
(LawrieWilliams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Russia upping gold purchases again

After a few months of seemingly diminishing central bank gold accumulations, Russia added a larger amount to its gold reserves in June than it had in the prior two months thereby perhaps quashing speculation that it may have been intentionally running down its reserve increases. Thus, for the month of June, the Russian Central Bank reported it added a further 600,000 troy ounces (18.66 tonnes) of gold to its reserves bringing the 6-month total to around 96.5 tonnes which looks like it’s getting back on track to add around another 200 tonnes this year. It is thus continuing to buy at a faster rate than China’s reported purchases which amounted to around 74 tonnes for the half year, although whether one can believe China’s reported gold reserve addition levels remains subject to debate.

Russia is the world’s fifth largest national holder of gold, as reported to the IMF, and is currently the world’s third largest producer, after China and Australia. (Its mines produced close to 300 tonnes of gold last year.) It is rapidly closing the reserve gap on the world’s No. 3 and No. 4 holders – Italy and France – and at the current rate of addition to its holdings could surpass both of these in terms of gold held in official reserves by the middle of next year – if not sooner.

While the Russian central bank remains the biggest accumulator of gold into its reserves as reported to the IMF, there remains a trend for Central Banks in general to increase their reserves with the latest to join the gold reserve building brigade, Poland which, as we reported here a few weeks ago, announced it had added 100 tonnes to its gold reserves in the first half of 2019, almost doubling them to 228.6 tonnes. This follows on from purchases of around 25.7 tonnes in the second half of 2018.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), Central Bank gold demand was up 73% year on year for the first five months of the current year, and the WGC’s recently published 2019 Central Bank Gold Reserves (CBGR) Survey points to continued robust central bank demand for gold in the short and medium term. In the Survey, 11% of emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) central banks surveyed said they intended to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months. This is similar to last year’s purchases, when 12% of the world’s 155 EMDE central banks bought gold. This gave rise to 651 tonnes of central bank gold demand, the highest level on record under the current international monetary system. With first half demand running ahead of that in 2018 there is a good chance that 2019 Central Bank accumulations will match, or even exceed, the record 2018 figure.

As another pointer to the improved perception of gold as an asset class, inflows into gold-related Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) are doing extremely well. In the USA the two largest gold ETFs, GLD and IAU, are both recording big gold inflows, while European ETPs are, according to the WGC, also seeing record inflows with European ETP holdings hitting a new record high in Q1. With the gold price seeing significant gains over the past couple of months we would anticipate the increased activity in these continuing – they tend to do well in an increasing gold price scenario.

20 Jul 2019

-END-

Nicholas Biezanek

8:26 AM (1 hour ago)
to William, me

Hi Bill/Harvey

Sometime ago I read an article (dated 2011)  explaining that LBMA unallocated gold (and silver) accounts were merely monetary loans with the yield (which could easily be negative) priced by reference to the manipulated headline price of paper gold on the COMEX. The concept of open interest on the COMEX is quite easy to understand .Thereafter things quickly get far more opaque. It was interesting to see the recent exchange of opinions between Alasdair Macleod and Ted Butler. If these two of the most informed commentators on the planet have such differing interpretations relating to COMEX data, then clearly no one really knows what is going on, and certainly the regulators and the Cabal are not going to provide clarification soon.

I now personally interpret these exchange for physical (EFP) contracts as merely analogous to the transfer of liabilities from the COMEX into this make believe world of LBMA unallocated accounts. The only certainty is that physical metal plays virtually no part in these transactions. I was wondering why the counter parties to these EFP transactions would choose to fully fund LBMA positions (if indeed they do) rather than remain on margin whilst punting virtually the same underlying bet on the COMEX. Then suddenly I ‘did the math’. Since 1st January 2018 to date, more than 10,000 tonnes of EFP related gold transactions have been transferred to the LBMA.10, 000 tonnes of exposure to the paper gold price equates to more than 3.2 million COMEX contracts. In the last few days, the tally of open interest contracts on the COMEX has exploded to about 640,000.Imagine if this figure was still to include the tonnage inherent in these (now obscured) EFP contracts. (Thanks to Harvey Organ, however, these figures are archived on a daily and granular basis for posterity).  The COMEX open Interest, sans EFPs, would be now knocking on the door of 4 million contracts. Such a stratospheric figure might (no guarantee) alarm our flaccid regulators and somewhat disturb their viewing of porno movies (this habitual regulatory activity is serially confirmed in various official audits). Therefore excessive daily usage of the ‘emergency’ mechanism of EFP contracts became a mission critical imperative to transfer excessive punting on the COMEX under the LBMA’s veil of obscurity, which market never ever discloses the total claims on the loco London static pool of vault gold.(The LBMA fractional reserving of physical vault gold to total claims on this gold is estimated to be at least in a ratio of 100/1)

10,000 tonnes of gold as transferred via EFP contracts to the LBMA in the last 18 months has a value ,at $1,200 per troy ounce, of nearly $400 billion. If the EFP counter parties have maintained their full positions on the LBMA, the recent increase in the paper headline price of gold from $1,200 to $1,400 means that these unallocated positions on the LBMA have generated a positive yield of 16%, being a related cost to the Cartel of +$60, billion. Since there is $13 trillion of negative yielding debt today, then 16% is a very attractive yield. If I am wrong, then explain to me why this postulation is false, given that no one has a full comprehensive grasp in respect of interpreting all the manipulative crimes as perpetrated on the COMEX/LBMA.

Regards

Nicholas

Harvey responds!

Harvey Organ

9:44 AM (0 minutes ago)
to Nicholas, William

Nicholas:  you are 100% correct.

Now suppose a sovereign witnesses these EFP’s (they can also trade) having already been transferred to London. The sovereign purchases a considerable quantity of them with the purpose of acquiring physical metal especially gold. The liability still rests with the Comex bankers who now have to supply this non existent metal and thus a commercial failure at the Comex followed shortly with a commercial failure in London..

Have a great weekend

h

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8805/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8794   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 37.23 POINTS OR 1.27%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 394.14 POINTS OR 1.37%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 50.20 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.24/Euro FALLS TO 1.1215

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.14/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.90/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.36 and Brent: 63.37

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.34%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.64% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.97: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.12

3k Gold at $1426.25 silver at: 16.38   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 0/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.90 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9816 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1008 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.34%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.04% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.57%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6763..

Global Markets Rebound Ahead Of Earnings And News Deluge

US equity futures followed European stocks higher, following a mixed session in Asia as investors looked ahead to a busy week of corporate earnings in which 145 S&P 500 and 10 of the Dow 30 companies are due to report. Oil gained amid tensions in the Persian Gulf, while the dollar continued to rise amid concerns the Fed may disappoint with a smaller than expected rate cut.

 

Europe’s STOXX 600 index gained 0.1%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC rose 0.3% and Britain’s FTSE jumped 0.5% as traders reversed the wave of selling observed earlier in the Asian session. Energy and mining shares lead gains after crude oil prices jumped at least $1 per barrel, on concern that Iran’s seizure of a British tanker last week may lead to disruptions in the Middle East. European losses were led by real estate stocks which would benefit from lower interest rates and defensive sectors such as utilities and telecoms ahead of a big week for earnings.

“Sentiment about company earnings potential appears to be mixed at best, with some evidence that we might be seeing a bit of a pickup in economic data, after a slow first half of the year,” said Michael Hewson at CMC Markets. “The pickup in U.S. economic data last week, as well as contradictory commentary from Fed officials, appears to be muddying the waters for investors about the possible reaction function of the U.S. Federal Reserve at the end of this month and whether we can expect to see a 25 basis point or 50 basis point rate cut.”

The MSCI world index dipped 0.2% in early trading, pulling away from the near-year-and-a-half high reached earlier in June after most Asian stocks fell, led by health care and financials, as optimism for aggressive monetary easing dwindled and as the earnings season accelerated. Most regional markets fell, with Hong Kong and China leading losses. The Topix retreated 0.5%, driven by Asahi Group Holdings, Daiichi Sankyo Co. and Nintendo Co., after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe claimed victory in Sunday’s upper house election. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index extended declines in the afternoon even as Chief Executive Carrie Lam condemned political protesters and their aggressors, promising to investigate violent attacks.

Momentum looked better on Wall Street, where S&P500 Emini futures pointed to a 0.3% higher open.

Global stocks rose toward the end of last week after dovish comments by New York Fed President John Williams boosted expectations the world’s top central bank would lower rates by 50 basis points at its July 30-31 meeting. However, they gave back those gains after the New York Fed walked back Williams’ comments by saying his speech was not about upcoming policy action.

Hopes for a larger cut were curtailed even more after the Wall Street Journal reported late on Friday that the Fed was likely to cut rates by 25 bps this month, and may trim further in the future given global growth and trade uncertainties.

In FX, the dollar inched higher and U.S. Treasury yields held steady on the greater likelihood of a shallower rate cut. The dollar index gained to 97.169 against a basket of six major currencies after rising 0.4% on Friday. The euro was little changed at $1.1217 after shedding 0.5% on Friday. The New Zealand dollar leads currency gains; the pound was the biggest loser, falling from the European open as Johnson’s expected victory is predicted to spur at least two more resignations from the Conservative cabinet, further increasing the uncertainty over Britain’s departure from the EU

In rates, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield lingered at 2.0429%. German bunds gained to support Treasuries, while Italian bonds slipped.

“The market is still exaggerating the most likely scale of Fed rate cuts, in our view, by pricing in close to 100bps of easing over the next 12 months,” according to Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “It remains possible that the market will be disappointed by the pace of Fed easing, in our view. As a result, we are tactically short U.S. two-year government bonds, and focus on carry strategies rather than aggressively increasing equity exposure.”

Meanwhile in Brexit news, EU countries are reportedly secretly wooing PM candidate Boris Johnson and signalled an intention to work out a deal to avoid a no-deal disaster. In related news, EU is to prepare an aid package for Ireland to soften no-deal Brexit. US President Trump said he spoke with UK PM candidate Johnson and looks forward to working with him and thinks he will work out Brexit, while there were also reports that Trump expressed concerns with France’s Macron regarding the proposed digital services tax.

Investors are set for a busy week ahead as earnings season ramps up and Thursday sees a monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank. The Fed meanwhile is in a blackout period ahead of next week’s interest rate decision. Also, trade may come back into the picture soon, with face-to-face negotiations potentially resuming between the top Chinese and U.S. trade negotiators, according to Chinese state media. China Global Times Editor tweeted the Chinese side sees a face-to-face meeting with the US as not far away and expects “actions” may happen soon which would be a sign of goodwill from both sides. In related news, China is reportedly mulling a plan to boost US soybean purchases.

Expected data include the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Halliburton, Lennox, and Whirlpool are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,984.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 387.82
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 160.11
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 527.33
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 21,416.79
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,556.37
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 28,371.26
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.3% to 2,886.97
  • Sensex down 0.9% to 38,012.94
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 6,691.24
  • Kospi down 0.05% to 2,093.34
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to -0.331%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1219
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 4.9 bps to 1.252%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.387%
  • Brent futures up 2.4% to $63.94/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed to $1,425.58
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed 97.20

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Face-to-face negotiations between the top Chinese and U.S. trade negotiators could happen soon, according to Chinese state media, after Chinese companies asked U.S. exporters about buying agricultural products and also applied for exemptions from China’s retaliatory tariffs on the goods, state-run Xinhua News Agency reported Sunday
  • A night of protests and clashes in Hong Kong — including tear gas volleys and roving groups of masked men attacking protesters — prompted the strongest warnings yet from the Chinese government and fanned fears of escalating violence
  • Oil extended gains as tensions in the Persian Gulf remained elevated after Iran seized a British tanker, and Libyan production fell after an unidentified group reportedly shut the country’s largest field
  • Prime Minister Theresa May will lead a meeting of the UK government’s emergency committee on Monday to discuss the security of shipping in the Persian Gulf after Iran seized a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz last week
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling coalition won their sixth straight national election victory in Sunday’s upper house election, but fell short of the supermajority needed to launch a bid to change the pacifist constitution
  • U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with a group of senators this week to discuss possible sanctions against Turkey, the Wall Street Journal reported
  • Theresa May’s successor must move beyond Brexit to restore economic confidence and spur investment, the Confederation of British Industry said as it launched a “business manifesto” for the new government.
  • Some Chinese companies are applying for tariff exemptions as they make inquiries about buying U.S. agricultural products, more than a week after Donald Trump complained that China hasn’t increased its purchases of American farm products
  • Italy’s fractious populist coalition lurches into a make-or-break week as Matteo Salvini decides whether to try to force snap elections while Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte struggles to salvage the government

Asian equity markets traded mostly lower with the region cautious amid dampened hopes for a more aggressive Fed rate cut and geopolitical concerns after Iran seized 2 UK tankers. ASX 200 (-0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) were both subdued at the open although strength in commodity-related stocks briefly spurred a rebound in Australia, while the Japanese benchmark failed to take advantage of a weaker currency as participants reflected on the Upper House election results in which PM Abe’s ruling coalition won a majority of seats but failed to retain the supermajority needed to push ahead with revising the constitution. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (-1.3%) and Hang Seng (-1.5%) declined despite continued liquidity efforts by the PBoC and more constructive language regarding US-China trade talks, with a rotation of funds seen into China’s new Nasdaq-style tech board known as the STAR Market which launched today and saw all of its 25 stocks surge by an average 126% in early trade and with some higher by more than 200%. Finally, 10yr JGBs were steady with only minimal support seen from the lacklustre tone in stocks and BoJ presence for JPY 1.265tln of JGBs mostly in 1yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • RBI Easing Is More Than India’s Rate Cuts Suggest, Das Says
  • New Thai Government to Pursue Policies Championed by Junta
  • India Faces ‘Silent Fiscal Crisis’ on Tax Gap, Modi Adviser Says

Major European indices are relatively flat [Eurostoxx 50 +0.1%], albeit near highs of the day following on from a cautious Asia-Pac trade. Sectors are mixed with outperformance seen in the energy sector amid the price action in the complex. In terms of individual movers, Philips (+4.0%) shares rose on the back of optimistic earnings whilst Julius Baer (+2.7%) shares are supported by an 8% in assets under management.

Top European News

  • Italy’s Populists Near Crunch Time, With Salvini Playing God
  • Brexit Nightmare Looms for U.K. Lawyers Forced Out of EU Courts
  • U.K.’s Hammond to Quit If Boris Johnson Wins Race to Succeed May
  • Philips Profit Shows How Plant Rejig Offers Trade War Remedy

In FX, the DXY index has consolidated recovery gains above the 97.000 handle within a relatively tight 97.126-247 range following the final official Fed rhetoric ahead of the pre-FOMC backout period from Bullard who reiterated his preference for a 25 bp cut instead of anything larger. Meanwhile, WSJ sources chimed in with similar ‘guidance’ as recent economic developments do not suggest an imminent downturn that would warrant bolder action, although more easy could be flagged after July, and current market pricing reflects the latest commentary with less than 20% chance of a 50 bp ease.

  • NZD/CAD/AUD – The non-US Dollars are outperforming or at least holding up better than G10 peers, with the Kiwi leading the way on favourable cross-winds as Aud/Nzd retreats through 1.0400 and Nzd/Usd holds nearer last week’s peaks than Aud/Usd between 0.6782-58 and 0.7047-32 respective bands. From a fundamental perspective, the Aussie may glean fresh direction from RBA Assistant Governor Kent later, while the Loonie will be watching Canadian wholesale trade alongside crude prices that are currently supportive and nudging Usd/Cad down through 1.3050 within 1.3068-41 parameters.
  • GBP/JPY/CHF/EUR – All on the backfoot vs the Greenback, and the Pound in particular awaiting the Tory leadership result that is widely expected to see Brexit hard-liner Boris Johnson appointed as new PM and fresh Cabinet faces before the whole process of negotiating with the EU really starts again. Cable is back below 1.2500 and from a chart standpoint looking more bearish as it slips beneath last Friday’s 1.2476 base. Next up would be July 18’s 1.2429 session low, but Sterling is keeping its head just above 0.9000 vs the Euro that is only just maintaining 1.1200+ status vs the Buck ahead of preliminary PMIs on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday. Note, the probability of a 10 bp reduction in the depo rate is 50%, while some are also looking for the QE taps to be reopened, albeit not this month. Elsewhere, the Franc is hovering just below 0.9800 and 1.0100 vs the single currency, wary that any ECB stimulus or more pronounced safe-haven gains will be countered by the SNB in some shape or form. Similarly, with this month’s BoJ policy meeting looming on the eve of the FOMC the Yen is erring towards the side of caution closer to 108.00 compared to recent highs and unlikely at this stage to arouse decent option interest sitting from 107.50 to 107.35 in 2.3 bn).
  • EM – The Lira has Central Bank action to look forward to as well, but US sanctions may be back on the radar to undermine sentiment given reports that President Trump is scheduling a meeting with Republican Senators to discuss options. Meanwhile, the consensus range is suitably wide for the CBRT as estimates cover a whopping 100-500 bp easing, and Usd/Try is near the top of a 5.6925-6490 at present.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are on the rise as sentiment in the complex is underpinned amid late-Friday reports that the IRGC seized a UK tanker in the Strait of Hormuz due to an alleged violation of maritime law. Meanwhile, UK Chancellor Hammond noted that the UK has been working closely with US and EU partners regarding a response to Iran’s actions. Energy markets are particularly sensitive to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, given that a fifth of the world’s oil exports passes through the corridor everyday whilst  geopolitical tensions intensifies in the area. WTI and Brent futures have tested 57/bbl and 64/bbl to the upside as a result, albeit failed to convincingly breach the levels. Also of note; on Friday Libya’s NOC announced a force majeure at its El-Sharara (300k BPD) oilfield, although this has now been lifted, according to a statement. Elsewhere, spot gold remains within a narrow range amid an uneventful USD and heading into a key meeting for the ECB, in which markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a 10bps cut to its Deposit rate. Meanwhile, copper prices are marginally softer amid the overall cautious risk tone whilst Dalian iron ore prices declined as port inventory across China rose to over 1-month highs.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.1, prior 0
  • 11am: BoJ’s Kuroda Speaks at IMF in Washington

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Monday. I hope you had a good weekend. Mine was slightly ruined by a late cancellation for a round of golf by a friend who pulled a hamstring on Friday in a Father’s race at a school sports day. That’s the type of middle age thing that now happens to my circle of friends. He was a very good runner in his day and I can imagine him being very competitive about it and overdoing things. The good news for me as I approach such events in the years ahead is that I was always absolutely dreadful at running with no turn of speed so I have no ambition in such events and will gladly sit them out. However if they start a Father’s cycle race, golf tournament or cricket game I’m bound to overdo it, try to prove I’m the best dad and get an injury! Thank goodness this is unlikely.

The race to be the most dovish central bank hots up this week with the much anticipated ECB meeting on Thursday. The Fed is now in a public appearance blackout period and after a jumbled messaging on rate cuts from them towards the end of last week (more later) markets will continue to speculate in the background on the 25bps vs 50bps debate for the FOMC in 9 days time. 25bps remains the overwhelming favourite but the market stubbornly refuses to minimise the probability of 50bps. Before we preview the ECB, this week is also important for Wednesday’s flash global PMIs, Q2 US GDP (Friday), a new UK PM announced (Tuesday), and 145 S&P 500 companies reporting as earnings season hits its first peak week.

At Sintra last month Draghi laid the foundations to make further policy easing feel less conditional. Our economists, in their preview note last week ( link ), believe that September is the natural occasion for the big decisions and details however some preparation is anticipated this week. They expect the “or lower” easing bias to be reintroduced into rates guidance and that this will be the prelude to a 10bp deposit rate cut and tiering in September. They also expect a further 10bp cut in December. They also believe we will see upgraded forward guidance used to underline the ECB’s “absolute commitment” to the price stability mandate. If the Council is unable to strengthen forward guidance sufficiently, a new wave of net asset purchases may be required. If so, the team would not be surprised by new QE of EUR30bn per month for a minimum 9-12 months split equally between public and private assets and with a commitment to relax the limits if necessary.

Before this, the July global flash PMIs come out on Wednesday with most of the attention on Europe. The last few months have seen some stabilisation in the data with the manufacturing PMI for the Euro Area hitting 47.6 in June (vs. 47.7, 47.9 and 47.5 in the three months prior). The consensus expects a 47.8 reading for July. As for the services reading the consensus expects a 53.5 print which compares to 53.6 last month. We should note that we’ll also get country level PMI data for Germany, France and also Japan and the US.

Meanwhile, earnings season continues to rev up this week with 145 S&P 500 companies due to report. The highlights include Harley Davidson, Coca-Cola, United Technologies and Visa tomorrow, Boeing, Caterpillar, Ford, Facebook and AT&T on Wednesday, Amazon, Google and Intel on Thursday, and McDonalds and Twitter on Friday. With 15% of the S&P 500 having reported results, earnings are coming in around +4.9% better than consensus forecasts, which is above the historical average of 3.5%. US bank results have been mostly strong so far, though they did note pressure on their NIMs as rates fall. Outside of the Netflix subscriber numbers shock (stock -15.58% on the week), another negative release came from CSX, the shipping firm (-10.52% on the week), who reported soft guidance amid expectations for stagnant revenue this year.

As for the rest of the data this week, the advance Q2 GDP reading in the US on Friday will be in the spotlight with the consensus expecting a +1.8% reading following +3.1% in Q1. In Europe the only other data worth flagging is the July IFO survey in Germany on Thursday and perhaps the CBI survey data for July in the UK tomorrow and Thursday. This will be the latest check on Brexit Britain’s recent data reversal. The new UK PM this week will have a lot of political headwinds to face with Chancellor Hammond saying over the weekend that he will immediate resign if the overwhelming favourite Boris Johnson gets the job. The weekend press in the UK was also full of further speculation that Tory remainers will do all they can to limit the chances of Mr Johnson leaving the EU without a deal. A fascinating three and a bit months ahead for the UK.

Elsewhere the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook update on Tuesday will get a lot of headlines as will former Special Counsel Mueller testifying before the House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Russian election interference on Wednesday. The full day by day week ahead is at the end today as usual.

Asian markets have started the week on a cautious note with the Nikkei (-0.30%), Hang Seng (-0.77%), Shanghai Comp (-0.57%) and Kospi (-0.17%) all down. However, most indices are off their intraday lows. In terms of news flow there is a story that Chinese companies have asked US exporters about buying agricultural products and also applying for exemptions from China’s retaliatory tariffs on the goods (per state-run Xinhua News Agency). This perhaps shows that China is trying to buy more US goods in the negotiation period. Elsewhere, in a separate commentary from Taoran Notes, a blog run by the state-owned Economic Daily newspaper, it was suggested that the US and China have been “cautiously showing each other sincerity and goodwill” recently and may meet for discussions soon. Meanwhile, Hu Xijin, the editor-in-chief of the Chinese state newspaper Global Times also tweeted that “Based on what I know, Chinese importers have started arrangement of purchasing US agricultural products. This is a prominent part from Chinese side as the two countries have signalled goodwill to each other recently. It also indicates China-US trade consultations will restart soon.”

Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flattish while WTI oil prices are up another +0.84% as tensions in the Persian Gulf remain elevated after Iran seized a British tanker, and Libyan production fell after an unidentified group reportedly shut the country’s largest field.

In other news, China’s commerce ministry said in a statement that it will conduct an anti-dumping probe into stainless steel billet and hot-rolled stainless steel plate (coil) imports from the EU, Japan and Indonesia while adding that it will collect anti-dumping duties (duty rate to be between 18.1%-103.1%) on stainless steel products imports from EU, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia for five years starting from July 23.

Before the week ahead a quick recap of the last week. Attention continued to focus on the Fed, as investors weighed the odds of a 25 versus 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming 31 July meeting. Last week, a few hawkish members of the committee, Kansas City’s George and Dallas’s Kaplan, both signalled that they may support a rate cut. At the same time, some of the committee’s more dovish members signalled support for a cut, but not an immediate 50bps move, i.e. Chicago’s Evans and St. Louis’s Bullard. The Fed’s leadership, Chair Powell and Vice Chair Clarida, both spoke but neither gave a firm policy signal either way. Markets gyrated after NY Fed President Williams spoke on Thursday, where he argued in favour of quick and aggressive action to pre-empt a downturn. Markets moved to price in around a 72% chance of a 50bps move this month in the aftermath. However, there were major signs that the Fed was uncomfortable with this pricing, as the NY Fed walked back William’s comments, saying they were not about policy. A WSJ article on Friday, similarly emphasized support for a 25bps move but not 50bps. Meanwhile the Fed’s Rosengern (a voter this year) said in an interview with CNBC on Friday that no interest rate cut is warranted at this stage, given the positive data that’s rolled in since mid-June. He said, “The economy’s doing actually quite well. We’re not really having an economic slowdown,” while adding, “as long as the economy’s doing well, if that continues we don’t need accommodation.” Markets ended the week pricing in around a 24% chance of a larger 50bps rate cut.

The Fed news drove action in markets all last week, with 10-year treasuries rallying -6.7bps (+3.1bps Friday) and two-year yields down -2.9bps (+6.2bps Friday). Rates rallied early in the week on dovishly-perceived Fedspeak, but subsequently rebounded higher when the Fed walked back its signal. This caused the 2y10y curve to flatten -4.2bps (-3.6bps Friday) to 23.1bps. The moves were similar in Europe, where German yields fell -11.4bps (-1.4bps Friday). The euro weakened -0.43% versus the dollar (-0.50% Friday), as US macro data outperformed, highlighted by a very strong retail sales report. In contrast, European data was soft, with the ZEW survey deteriorating.

European equities outperformed a touch, with the Stoxx 600 rising +0.10% (+0.12% Friday). The S&P 500 retreated -1.23% (-0.62% Friday), with the NASDAQ performing similarly down -1.41% (-0.50% Friday). So a softer week for risk ahead of a big fortnight for central banks on both sides of the Atlantic.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.23 POINTS OR 1.27%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 394.14 POINTS OR 1.37%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 50.20 POINTS OR 0.23%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .07%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8805 /Oil DOWN TO 56.36 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.37 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8805 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8794 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Millions of barrels of Iranian crude are stored at Chinese ports but this oil is not entering China and supposedly this is not breaking USA sanctions.  China seems to be the only country buying oil as Iran;s economy is faltering by the minute

(zerohedge)

Millions Of Barrels Of Iranian Crude Are Piling Up At Chinese Ports

In what appears to be a gesture of contempt for Washington, Chinese companies have continued to import Iranian crude, but instead of reporting the crude imports, which would violate US sanctions, they’re storing the oil in bonded storage tanks situated at Chinese ports.

The phenomenon began when Washington reimposed sanctions back in May. And two months later, Iranian crude is still being shipped to China, only to end up in the tanks. Possibly the strangest aspect of this whole arrangement is that the oil sits in the tanks, unused. So far, none of it has been cleared through Chinese customs, so the oil is still technically “in transit.”

storage

So far, Washington hasn’t commented on how it views this stash of oil looming over global markets. If Chinese companies were to ever tap this store of oil, it could dampen demand in the world’s second-largest economy, which could rattle global markets.

The arrangement clearly benefits Iran, which has retained at least one major buyer of its crude.

“Iranian oil shipments have been flowing into Chinese bonded storage for some months now, and continue to do so despite increased scrutiny,” said Rachel Yew, an analyst at industry consultant FGE in Singapore. “We can see why the producer would want to do so, as a build-up of supplies near key buyers is clearly beneficial for a seller, especially if sanctions are eased at some point.”

Bloomberg ship-tracking data show there could be more Iranian oil headed for these massive tanks. At least ten very-large crude carriers and two smaller tankers owned by the state-run National Iranian Oil Company and its shipping arm are currently sailing toward China or idling off its coast. Combine, the vessels can carry some 20 million barrels. Most of this oil is still owned by Tehran, which creates a grey area in terms of whether China is violating US sanctions. It’s widely believed that most of the oil is payment in an oil-for-investment deal, which are fairly common in China.

The bulk of Iranian oil in China’s bonded tanks is still owned by Tehran and therefore not in breach of sanctions, according to the people. The oil hasn’t crossed Chinese customs so it is theoretically in transit. Some of the crude, though, is owned by Chinese entities that may have received it as part of oil-for-investment schemes. For example, a Chinese oil company could have helped fund a production project in Iran under an agreement to be repaid in kind. Whether this sort of transaction is in breach of sanctions isn’t clear, and so the Chinese companies are keeping it in bonded storage to avoid the official scrutiny it would get once it is registered with customs, according to the people.

Bloomberg has been tracking the discrepancy between the volume of Iranian crude shipped to China and the volume cleared by Chinese customs for months. China received about 12 million tons of Iranian crude from January through May, according to ship-tracking data, versus about 10 million that cleared customs over the period.

And the White House’s refusal to address the flow of Iranian crude has created confusion, Bloomberg said.

The White House cancelled all waivers allowing certain countries to keep importing Iranian crude on May 2. Any nation “caught” importing Iranian crude would, presumably, be in violation of Iranian sanctions.

More oil arrives almost every day.

Several other Iranian-owned tankers offloaded in China or were heading there, according to ship tracking data. VLCC Stream discharged at Tianjin on June 19, while Amber, Salina and C. Infinity offloaded crude at the ports of Huangdao, Jinzhou and Ningbo. Tankers Snow, Sevin and Maria III were last seen sailing in the direction of China.

At some point, Washington will need to clarify whether this constitutes a violation of US sanctions.

“The US will now need to define how it quantifies the infringement of sanctions,” said Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. There’s a lack of clarity on whether it would look at “financial transactions or the loading and discharge of cargoes by company or entity,” she said.

Aside from providing a steady income, the arrangement will free up Iranian tankers, instead of pressing them into service as storage hubs.Then again, addressing this now might seem like Washington is deliberately picking a fight to sabotage trade talks.

Or maybe the Iranian oil will factor into a final agreement?

END

Trump now sanctions one of the Chinese companies that have been importing Iranian oil

(zerohedge)

Ceasefire On The Rocks? Trump Sanctions Chinese Firm For Importing Iranian Crude

A huge escalatory step in the US-led economic war on Tehran and its global oil exports, and amid continued trade tensions with Beijing: the US State Department said Monday the US will impose new sanctions against a Chinese company for transporting Iranian crude in contravention of US sanctions. As the WSJ reports:

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told The Wall Street Journal on Monday that Chinese company Zhuhai Zhenrong and one of its executives knowingly violated U.S. law barring the import of Iranian crude oil.

China had previously been part of the so-called waiver program, which had granted eight countries exceptions which allowed temporary imports of Iranian oil, but which expired May 2 of this year.

 

Crude oil is unloaded at Zhoushan, East China’s Zhejiang province in February 2018. Image source: VCG

The US did not renew the waiver program, known as ‘Significant Reduction Exceptions,’ in what was seen globally as a serious escalation by Washington attempting to bring Europe and other economic partners to heel over continued dealings with Tehran.

The Chinese company has been identified as Zhuhai Zhengrong Co Ltd, which Pompeo accused of violating US law over its continued Iran crude imports. Notably, its CEO will also be under sanction.

The WSJ continued:

The company and the executive will be barred from engaging in any foreign exchange, banking or property transactions under U.S. jurisdiction. The company couldn’t be immediately located for comment. Chinese officials did not respond to a request for comment.

Pompeo said while addressing reporters in Florida, “We’ve said that we will sanction any sanctionable behavior and we mean it.”

Crucially, CNN noted late last week following Iran’s navy capturing a British-flagged tanker that the White House could once again be on a war footing following President Trump backing off the previously planned strike on Iranian positions last month: “President Trump has privately adopted a more hawkish tone on Iran in recent days, according to three people familiar with the developments, as tensions increase in the Gulf,” the report said.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

Seems that Salvini has had enough of the gypsies: he plans to raid “illegal settlements’ and deport them

(zerohedge)

Italy’s Salvini Draws Up Plans To Raid “Illegal Settlements”: Deport Roma, Sinti 

Italy’s Interior Minister Matteo Salvini has given the ministry’s regional offices two weeks to compile “a report on the presence of Roma, Sinti and Camminanti settlements” in order to begin mass deportations, according to Italian media.

In a Tuesday memo, Salvini laid out his campaign to “verify the presence of illegal camps to draw up an eviction plan,” according to DW.

According to the Council of Europe, Italy has one of the lowest concentrations of these groups in the EU, with a population of between 120,000 and 180,000, according to the AFP. More than half of these people are Italian citizens who have integrated into mainstream society, AFP claims.

Despite this, hate crimes and prejudice against Roma, Sinti, and Camminanti are rampant, particularly against the less fortunate, some of whom still live in unofficial settlements. –DW

In June of 2018, Salvini ordered a “Special Census” of the Roma community, saying that he planned to boot illegals from the country.

“I’ve asked the ministry to prepare a dossier on the Roma question in Italy,” Salvini told TeleLombardia, adding that the country’s large community of Roma, also known as Gypsies, was “chaos” several years after a crackdown.

DW reports that there are some 26,000 members of these groups living in emergency shelters or in vagrant camps across Italy in 2017, according to advocacy group Associazione 21 Luglio.

END
GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK
A good account on the staggering problems facing Deutsche bank as they face melting down due to the huge amount of derivatives that have been underwritten by them.  They are terribly offside in  their short positions on gold and silver
(Michael Snyder)

A Bank With $49 Trillion In Derivatives Exposure Is Melting Down Before Our Eyes

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Could it be possible that we are on the verge of the next “Lehman Brothers moment”? 

Deutsche Bank is the most important bank in all of Europe, it has 49 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives, and most of the largest “too big to fail banks” in the United States have very deep financial connections to the bank.  In other words, the global financial system simply cannot afford for Deutsche Bank to fail, and right now it is literally melting down right in front of our eyes.  For years I have been warning that this day would come, and even though it has been hit by scandal after scandal, somehow Deutsche Bank was able to survive until now.  But after what we have witnessed in recent days, many now believe that the end is near for Deutsche Bank.  On July 7th, they really shook up investors all over the globe when they laid off 18,000 employees and announced that they would be completely exiting their global equities trading business

It takes a lot to rattle Wall Street.

But Deutsche Bank managed to. The beleaguered German giant announced on July 7 that it is laying off 18,000 employees—roughly one-fifth of its global workforce—and pursuing a vast restructuring plan that most notably includes shutting down its global equities trading business.

Though Deutsche’s Bloody Sunday seemed to come out of the blue, it’s actually the culmination of a years-long—some would say decades-long—descent into unprofitability and scandal for the bank, which in the early 1990s set out to make itself into a universal banking powerhouse to rival the behemoths of Wall Street.

These moves may delay Deutsche Bank’s inexorable march into oblivion, but not by much.

And as Deutsche Bank collapses, it could take a whole lot of others down with it at the same time.  According to Wall Street On Parade, the bank had 49 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives as of the end of last year…

During 2018, the serially troubled Deutsche Bank – which still has a vast derivatives footprint in the U.S. as counterparty to some of the largest banks on Wall Street – trimmed its exposure to derivatives from a notional €48.266 trillion to a notional €43.459 trillion (49 trillion U.S. dollars) according to its 2018 annual report. A derivatives book of $49 trillion notional puts Deutsche Bank in the same league as the bank holding companies of U.S. juggernauts JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, which logged in at $48 trillion, $47 trillion and $42 trillion, respectively, at the end of December 2018 according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). (See Table 2 in the Appendix at this link.)

Yes, the actual credit risk to Deutsche Bank is much, much lower than the notional value of its derivatives contracts, but we are still talking about an obscene amount of exposure.

And this is especially true when we consider the state of Deutsche Bank’s balance sheet.  According to Nasdaq.com, as of the end of last year the bank had total assets of 1.541 trillion dollars and total liabilities of 1.469 trillion dollars.

In other words, there wasn’t much equity there at the end of December, and things have deteriorated rapidly since that time.  In fact, it is being reported that a billion dollars a day is being pulled out of the bank at this point.

I know that most Americans don’t really care if Deutsche Bank lives or dies, but as the New York Post has pointed outthe failure of Deutsche Bank could quickly become a major crisis for the entire global financial system…

But the important fact to remember is that Deutsche Bank traded these derivatives with other financial firms. So, is this going to be another Lehman Brothers situation whereby one bank’s problems becomes other banks’ problems?

Pay close attention to this.

If the situation gets out of hand, the Federal Reserve and other central banks will have no choice but to cut interest rates even if it’s not the best thing for the world economies.

In particular, some of the largest “too big to fail banks” in the United States are “heavily interconnected financially” to Deutsche Bank.  The following comes from Wall Street On Parade

We know that Deutsche Bank’s derivative tentacles extend into most of the major Wall Street banks. According to a 2016 reportfrom the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Deutsche Bank is heavily interconnected financially to JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America as well as other mega banks in Europe. The IMF concluded that Deutsche Bank posed a greater threat to global financial stability than any other bank as a result of these interconnections – and that was when its market capitalization was tens of billions of dollars larger than it is today.

Until these mega banks are broken up, until the Fed is replaced by a competent and serious regulator of  bank holding companies, and until derivatives are restricted to those that trade on a transparent exchange, the next epic financial crash is just one counterparty blowup away.

As long as I have been doing this, I have been warning my readers to watch the global derivatives market.  It played a starring role during the last financial crisis, and it will play a starring role in the next one too.

The fundamental structural problems that were exposed during 2008 and 2009 were never fixed.  In fact, many would argue that the global financial system is even more vulnerable today than it was back during that time.

And now it appears that the next “Lehman Brothers moment” may be playing out right in front of our eyes.

Now more than ever, keep a close eye on Deutsche Bank, because it appears that they could be the first really big domino to fall.

 

END

UK
67 Labour party members attack Corbyn over his anti Jewish sentiment.  Their aim is to oust the opposition leader.
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

67 Labour Party Members Attack Corbyn’s Anti-Jewish Leadership In Newspaper Ad

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is reeling from an ad by members of his own party accusing him of being anti-Jewish.

Rabbi Zvi Solomons 🕎@RabbiZvi

If you support @JeremyCorbyn in any way you are not antiracist. And we believe that MPs and peers in @UKLabour are now condoning and complicit with Corbyn’s nasty politics of hate.

This advert is clever, but won’t change anything.

View image on Twitter

The Telegraph reports Labour peers take out newspaper advert to tell Corbyn he is ‘failing the test of leadership’.

The full page advert, published in The Guardian on Wednesday, criticises Mr Corbyn for a “toxic culture you have allowed to divide our movement”, saying it has prompted the resignation of “thousands” of members.

The party, it says, is no longer a “safe place” for its members and supporters.

“We are saying you are accountable as Leader for allowing antisemitism to grow in our party and presiding over the most shaming period in Labour’s history,” it adds.

The advert is supported by a total of 67 Labour members of the House of Lords, including Peter Hain, Peter Mandelson and Robert Winston, and comes after a damning report by BBC’s Panorama programme into the party’s handling of allegations of anti-Semitism.

The peers also accuse Mr Corbyn of not having “opened (his) eyes” or “accepted responsibility” for the row which has engulfed the party.

More Labour Splintering

The timing of this attack could not come at a worse time for Corbyn or a better time for Johnson.

Corbyn was already reeling from wishy-washy policy that simultaneously supported Brexit, a referendum, Remain, and a customs union.

Obviously, that’s impossible.

‘Inevitable’ Labour MPs Will Try To Oust Corbyn Over Anti-Semitism

The Huffington Post reports ‘Inevitable’ Labour MPs Will Try To Oust Corbyn Over Anti-Semitism

“If he doesn’t resign, there will be a clamour for a vote of no-confidence.”

A vote of no-confidence by MPs would be largely symbolic because Labour’s leader is elected by members and not parliamentarians.

MPs can, however, trigger a leadership contest if 20% of MPs – or 49 of them nominate an alternative challenger.

MPs have stepped up criticism of the leader in the wake of a BBC Panorama probe which detailed shocking complaints of anti-Semitism, interviewed former staff members turned whistleblowers and alleged political interference from Corbyn’s communications chief Seumas Milne.

Boris Johnson the Primary Beneficiary

Boris Johnson, the UK’s next Prime Minister is the primary beneficiary.

The Liberal Democrats are the secondary beneficiary

Meanwhile, how long can Corbyn hang on as Labour leader?

This looms as a key question in the next election.

END

Allan Duncan, a UK Minister under May reigns as he does not want to serve under BoJo.

(courtesy zerohedge)

UK Minister Resigns, Tries To Topple Johnson Government Before It’s Even Official

In a race that has been marked by mostly harmless scandal (the altercation between Boris Johnson and girlfriend Carrie Symonds being an exception), some exciting developments are threatening to topple Johnson’s administration before it even begins.

Duncan

Alan Duncan

Ministers’ discomfort with serving under Boris Johnson have manifested in a series of resignations in recent days.

And on Monday, one of Johnson’s longtime enemies within the Conservative Party became the latest to resign and try to be a thorn in Johnson’s side, and possibly even scuttle hiswell-laid path to No. 10.

In a letter to Prime Minister Theresa May, Sir Alan Duncan resigned his post as foreign office minister, saying it was “customary” for ministers to step aside upon the changing of a PM, and added that it would free to “express my views” ahead of May leaving office.

May accepted Duncan’s offer and thanked him for his “distinguished” service.

Joe Pike

@joepike

NEW: Exchange of letters between PM and Sir Alan Duncan who resigned as Foreign Office Minister today.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Though many still refuse to believe that Brexit, or a no-deal Brexit, is even possible…

UK

…Duncan immediately tried calling for a vote that, through a series of technicalities, would have amounted to a de facto confidence vote in Johnson.

But Duncan was stymied by Speaker John Bercow, who blocked his bid.

But even if enough support for the next leader was registered in the vote, it might have exposed how shaky a Johnson government would be.

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Here’s the motion Duncan wanted a vote on…

View image on Twitter

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Here’s the motion Duncan wanted a vote on…

View image on Twitter

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

For the nerds out there and @PaulTwinn on his lounger, it was to be an SO 24

If Johnson (still hypothetical remember) didn’t have the numbers in the Commons, then he would not have become PM… I know it’s 2019, but it’s still pretty extraordinary that a Tory wants to give the Commons the opportunity to stop the next Tory leader getting into Number 10

134 people are talking about this

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

If Johnson (still hypothetical remember) didn’t have the numbers in the Commons, then he would not have become PM… I know it’s 2019, but it’s still pretty extraordinary that a Tory wants to give the Commons the opportunity to stop the next Tory leader getting into Number 10

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

5. Last thought on this for now – this move is clearly not something Duncan dreamt up overnight – and that may be the worrying thing for Team Johnson – there are MP s who know their way around the system extremely well who won’t be on his side

In an interview with the BBC, Duncan said he wanted the Commons to hold an effective confidence vote in Johnson on Tuesday, after Johnson is declared the new Tory leader, but one day before he is sworn in as PM. Some saw the maneuver as a long-time critic trying to undercut Johnson, but Duncan insisted he wanted Johnson’s government to succeed.

But, Duncan argued, this would be the first time in living memory where a minority government changes PM mid-term. To avoid a “constitutional crisis,” Duncan said he thought it was important to establish that Johnson had the confidence of the Commons.

Recent polls show Johnson is expected to defeat his rival, Jeremy Hunt, by a landslide.

Infographic: Leadership election: Johnson heading for landslide victory | StatistaYou will find more infographics at Statista

But with Duncan now the fourth minister to resign from May’s government in recent days, the vote just underscores how tenuous Johnson’s government’s grip on power will be.

Duncan, who once served under Johnson when Johnson was Foreign Secretary, said he was “totally” loyal to Johnson when he was his deputy, but that he nonetheless had serious concerns about Johnson’s ability to lead. He suggested that he believes Jeremy Hunt, Johnson’s opponent and Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, would be the more competent leader, despite widely held expectations that Johnson will win a ballot of Tory members.

“When I was his deputy I was totally loyal. We never had an argument. I never bad mouthed him. So I’ve served both foreign secretaries. And I’ve no doubt which of the two is the more capable and more competent. So I have very grave concerns that he flies by the seat of his pants, and it’s all a bit haphazard and ramshackle. But there’s no personal animosity of any sort. I just think he’s going to go smack into a crisis of government.”

Rumors have been spreading that Europe is preparing to offer Johnson a new deal to try and avert a “no deal” Brexit, something that Johnson seems increasingly intent on delivering.

end

Europe’s mistakes in their acceptance of a horrifying deal with Iran in 2015.  It could come back to haunt them

(Gatestone)

Time For Europe To Get Over The “Worst Deal Ever”

Authored by Con Coughlin via The Gatestone Institute,

With tensions rising in the Gulf by the day as a result of Iran’s increasingly provocative conduct, the refusal of the major European powers to back the Trump administration’s determination to confront Iran is looking increasingly untenable.

In the past few months Iran has been blamed for a series of attacks on oil tankers operating in the Gulf, and forced a British Royal Navy warship to intervene when a number of fast patrol boats operated by the naval division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attempted to harass a British-owned tanker sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, the main shipping route into the oil-rich Gulf.

Additionally, US military officials at Central Command (CentCom) are currently investigating claims that Iran was behind the mysterious disappearance of the oil tanker Riah while sailing in Iranian waters at the weekend.

Also, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have been blamed for carrying out a number of attacks against targets in neighbouring Saudi Arabia, including a missile attack on a Saudi civilian airport and a drone attack on a key Saudi pipeline.

Iran’s most audacious act so far has been to shoot down an American naval drone conducting a reconnaissance mission in the Strait of Hormuz last month. The strike came within hours of provoking a military response from the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, as all this has been going on, the ayatollahs have announced that they have resumed work on enriching uranium, a blatant breach of the controversial nuclear accord Tehran signed with the world’s leading powers in 2015.

Yet, while Iran shows no sign of scaling down its aggressive stance towards the US and its allies in the region, Europe continues to cling to the wreckage of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), to give the nuclear deal its proper name, in the misguided belief that the deal remains the best means of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Europe’s insistence on adopting a different approach to the White House in its dealings with Iran dates back to US President Donald Trump’s original decision last year to withdraw from the JCPOA, after arguing it was the “worst deal ever.”

That, however, is not a viewpoint supported by the European signatories to the deal — Britain, France and Germany. They still wrongly cling to the illusion that the agreement is a triumph of diplomacy, and has severely limited Iran’s ability to pursue its ambition of becoming a nuclear-armed power. Under the JCPOA deal, upon its sunset, a mere ten years away, in 2030, “Iran will be permitted to build an industrial-size nuclear industry” with the ability to build and potentially deliver as many nuclear weapons as it liked.

To this end the Europeans have actively sought to undermine the Trump administration’s new sanctions regime against Tehran by trying to find ways to continue trading with Iran. The Europeans have even come up with their own trading framework — the so-called Special Purpose Vehicle — which is supposed to enable European companies to continue trading with Iran without attracting punitive measures from the US.

In fact the measure has become an exercise in futility, as major European business conglomerates such as Airbus have shown that they are far more interested in protecting their lucrative business ties with the US than dealing with an economic basket case like Iran.

But not even this setback has deterred the Europeans from pursuing their policy of appeasement towards the ayatollahs. The determination of the Europeans to stick with the nuclear deal at all costs was very much in evidence earlier this week during a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Brussels at which they came up with the decidedly bogus notion that Iran’s breaches of the 2015 nuclear deal were not significant and therefore did not require the Europeans to withdraw from the JCPOA.

“Technically all the steps that have been taken, and that we regret have been taken, are reversible,” Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief, told EU foreign ministers.

As none of the signatories to the deal considered the breaches to be significant, they were not prepared to trigger the dispute mechanism which could lead to further sanctions.

“We invite Iran to reverse the steps and go back to full compliance,” were her final words on the matter.

Pictured: Mogherini (left) stands with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, during her August 2017 visit to Iran. (Image source: European External Action Service/Flickr)

Europe’s insistence on sticking with the nuclear deal, and its refusal to support Washington’s attempts to provide naval protection for international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, could ultimately prove self-defeating.

Europe is far more dependent on energy supplies from the Gulf than the US, and any further attempts by Iran to disrupt oil and gas supplies from the Gulf would have catastrophic consequences for Europe’s economy.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/UK

Saturday:

The UK warns it will give a “robust” response if Iran does not release the tanker held by Iran.  As of Monday, no response yet.

(zerohedge)

UK Warns “Robust” Response Coming If Iran Doesn’t Release Tanker As US Jets Fly Over Gulf

Update 1: UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has warned Iran of “serious consequences” if its military does not return control of the British-flagged oil tanker Stena Impero, according to Sky News. He said British action will be “robust” but also emphasized “we’re not looking at military options” at this early stage.

Hunt said he’s seeking to urgently speak to Iran’s foreign minister, currently unreachable as he’s on a plane flying back from a UN meeting in New York, and hopes the crisis will be resolved diplomatically. Per Sky News:

Mr Hunt said: “This is completely unacceptable, freedom of navigation must be maintained, we are having an emergency meeting of the government’s COBRA committee in a few minutes time.”

“We will respond in a way that is considered but robust, and we are absolutely clear that if this situation is not resolved quickly there will be serious consequences.”

Mr Hunt continued: “We’re not looking at military options, we are looking at a diplomatic way to resolve the situation.”

“But we are very clear that it must be resolved.”

And according to a breaking CNN report, the White House could once again be on a war footing following President Trump backing off the previously planned strike on Iranian positions last month: “President Trump has privately adopted a more hawkish tone on Iran in recent days, according to three people familiar with the developments, as tensions increase in the Gulf.”

 

Via Sky News

This as American aircraft are also said to be escorting an unidentified US cargo ship through the Strait of Hormuz Friday evening, and with a beefed up US military presence in the region responding to the new crisis: the US military is monitoring the transit of US commercial cargo ship through the Strait of Hormuz using armed aircraft overhead,” according to the latest updates.

* * *

British officials are scrambling after two UK tankers were captured by Iran in one dramatic day in the gulf — or rather we should clarify that the Stena Impero is UK flagged but not owned by a UK company (the owner ‘Stena Bulk’ is based in Sweden), while the Mesdar is Liberian flagged but is in fact owned by a UK company.

However, Iranian state media is denying that the Liberian flagged, UK-owned tanker captured is still being held, with new reports it’s been released, per the following wire updates:

Norbulk Shipping UK says Liberian registered vessel Mesdar was boarded by armed personnel at approximately 17:30 BST on Friday.

…Norbulk says armed guards have left and the vessel is now free to continue to voyage, crew safe and well.

 

The two tankers seized Friday, via The Telegraph.

UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt voiced that Britain is “extremely concerned” by the “unacceptable” seizure of the two vessels IRGC forces in the Strait of Hormuz. “I will shortly attend a COBR meeting to review what we know and what we can do to swiftly secure the release of the two vessels,” he said in reference to a Cabinet Office Briefing Room meeting over the major crisis, which is equivalent to the National Security Council’s ‘situation room’ meetings.

“Their crews comprise a range of nationalities, but we understand there are no British citizens on board either ship,” Hunt continued, according to the AP. “These seizures are unacceptable. It is essential that freedom of navigation is maintained and that all ships can move safely and freely in the region.”

Meanwhile the UK Chamber of Shipping also said it “condemn unreservedly” the capture of the British-owned vessel, but it remains unclear the precise order of the pair of tankers’ capture.

Alastair Williamson@StockBoardAsset

Just Recorded: Here Are Both Oil Tankers That Have Been “Seized” By Iran

Embedded video

Addressing the crisis, President Trump told reporters at the White House, “We have a very close alliance with the United Kingdom. We always have.”

And in an early indication that Trump will be content to let the UK take the lead on this crisis (also considering there was no threat of war), the president said: “We’ll talk to the UK… We heard about it. We heard it was one. We heard it was two,” according to CNN.

“This only goes to show what I’m saying about Iran. Trouble. Nothing but trouble,” Trump stated. “It goes to show you I was right about Iran.” The president added, “We have a lot of ships there that are warships.”

On that point, CNN notes the US military has significantly stepped up patrols in the Persian Gulf following news of the tankers’ seizure.

Specifically American aircraft are said to be escorting an unidentified US cargo ship through the Strait of Hormuz:

The US is taking measures to protect a ship near where two British tankers were seized by Iran.

According to a US defense official with direct knowledge, at this hour, the US military is monitoring the transit of US commercial cargo ship through the Strait of Hormuz using armed aircraft overhead. The US will not say the location or other details, but the transit typically takes six to eight hours.

The US cargo ship is reportedly traversing the same narrow, dangerous waters near where the prior two vessels were captured by IRGC operatives.

Walid@walid970721

FM Zarif to BBC: The UK should not claim that it wants to preserve the when it helps the US impose its illegal oil sanctions against Iran by confiscating the oil tanker off the coast of Gibraltar.

Embedded video

Crucially, all of this comes just as UK officials have announced authorities in Gibraltar will detain the tanker ‘Grace 1’ – first seized early this month by UK Royal Marines – for another 30 days

END

Iran releases the first footage of the UK seized oil tanker

(zerohedge)

 

Iran Releases First Footage Of Seized Oil Tanker

Iran has released the first images of the detained British flagged oil tanker Stena Impero after its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced its seizure Friday in retaliation for the UK’s prior capture of the ‘Grace 1’ off Gibraltar earlier this month.

EHA News@eha_news

’s ISNA releases the first footage of the detained oil tanker Stena Impero

Embedded video

The Swedish-owned and British flagged tanker is also no longer under control of crew and hasn’t been able to be contacted since being forced into Iranian waters Friday, according to a statement from its owner Stena Bulk.

“Soon after the vessel was approached by unidentified small naval craft and a helicopter during her transit of the Strait of Hormuz in international waters… the vessel suddenly deviated from her passage to Jubail and headed north towards Iran,” the company said in statement.

Iran’s IRNA quoted an Iranian maritime official as saying, “There are 18 Indian and five crew members from Russia, Philipines, Latvia and other countries on board of Stena Impero. The captain is Indian, but the tanker is UK-flagged.”

As of Saturday morning Indian government officials have confirmed India is in contact with Tehran to secure the release of the majority Indian crew.

 

via Sky News

Meanwhile, the second foreign vessel which was captured Friday – Liberian flagged, UK-owned tanker ‘Mesdar’ – was reportedly released after being briefly boarded by Iran’s military, as we detailed previously.

UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has warned Iran of “serious consequences” if its military does not return control of the British-flagged oil tanker Stena Impero, according to Sky News. He said British action will be “robust” but also emphasized “we’re not looking at military options” at this early stage.

end

The real story behind the Iran/USA Saudi saga

(Tom Luongo)

As Trump Backs Down, The Pips Squeak

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Last week it was all fire and brimstone. The US was threatening more sanctions on Iran, the Brits were seizing oil tankers and Iran was violating the JCPOA.

This week things look different all of a sudden. An oil tanker goes dark while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the story fails to get any real traction and the US allows Iranian Foreign Minister, recently sanctioned, to do his job at the United Nations.

Trump then holds a cabinet meeting where he reiterates that “We’re not looking for regime change. We want them out of Yemen.”

I thought National Security Advisor John Bolton said the US would apply pressure until “the pips squeak.”

Where the pips are squeaking is on the Arabian Peninsula, not across the Persian Gulf in Bandar Abbas. Specifically, I’m talking about the United Arab Emirates. The UAE sent a delegation to Tehran recently that coincided with its partial withdrawal of troops from Yemen.

That meeting, according to Elijah Magnier, focused on Emirates realizing they are in the middle of this conflict, up to their skyscrapers.

“The UAE would like to avoid seeing their country transformed into a battlefield between the US and Iran in case of war, particularly if Trump is re-elected. The Emirates officials noted that the US did not respond to Iran’s retaliation in the Gulf and in particularly when the US drone was downed. This indicates that Iran is prepared for confrontation and will implement its explicit menace, to hit any country from which the US carries out their attacks on Iran. We want to be out of all this”, an Emirates official told his Iranian counterpart in Tehran.

Iran promised to talk to the Yemeni officials to avoid hitting targets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi as long as the UAE pulls out its forces from the Yemen and stops this useless war. Saudi Crown Prime Mohammad Bin Salman is finding himself without his main Emirates ally, caught in a war that is unwinnable for the Saudi regime. The Yemeni Houthis have taken the initiative, hitting several Saudi strategic targets. Saudi Arabia has no realistic objectives and seems to have lost the appetite to continue the war in Yemen.

So, with the Houthis successfully striking major targets inside Saudi Arabia and the UAE abruptly pulling forces out, the war in Yemen has reached a critical juncture. Remember, the Republican-controlled Senate approved a bill withdrawing support for the war back in March, which the White House had to veto in support of its fading hopes for its Israeli/Palestinian deal pushed by Jared Kushner.

But things have changed significantly since then as that deal has been indefinitely postponed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a second election this fall after he failed to secure a stable coalition.

After that there was the failed economic conference in Bahrain in June where Kushner revealed the economic part of the plan to a half-empty room where only the backers of the plan showed any real support.

And that’s the important part of this story, because it was Kushner’s plan which was the impetus for all of this insane anti-Iran belligerence in the first place. Uniting the Gulf states around a security pact leveraging the U.S/Israeli/Saudi alliance was part of what was supposed to pressure the Palestinians to the bargaining table.

By placing maximum economic sanctions on both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran while continuing to foment chaos in Syria was supposed to force Israel’s enemies to fold under the pressure which would, in turn, see the Palestinians surrender to the will of Kushner and Bibi.

The problem is, it didn’t work. And now Trump is left holding the bag on this idiotic policy which culminated in an obvious provocation when Iran shot down a $220 million Global Hawk surveillance drone, nearly sparking a wider war.

But what it did was expose the US and not Iran as the cause of the current problems.

Since then Trump finally had to stand up and be the grown-up in the room, such as he is, and put an end to this madness.

The UAE understood the potential for Iran’s asymmetric response to US belligerence. The Saudis cannot win the war in Yemen that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman began. The fallout from this war has been to push Qatar out of the orbit of the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council, cutting deals with Iran over developing the massive North Pars gas field and pipelines to Europe.

And now the UAE has realized it is facing an existential threat to its future in any confrontation between Iran and the US

What’s telling is that Trump is making Yemen the issue to negotiate down rather than Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Because it was never about the nuclear program. It was always about Iran’s ballistic missile program.

And Secretary of State Mike Pompeo would have us believe that for the first time Iran’s missile program is on the negotiating table. I have no idea if that’s actually true, but it’s a dead giveaway that it’s what the US is after.

The main reason why Trump and Netanyahu are so angry about the JCPOA is the mutual outsourcing of the nuclear ballistic missile program by Iran and North Korea.North Korea was working on the warhead while Iran worked on the ballistic missile.

Trump tweeted about this nearly two years ago, confirming this link. I wrote about it when he did this.  Nearly everything I said about North Korea in the blog post is now applicable to Iran. This was why he hated the JCPOA, it didn’t actually stop the development of Iran and North Korea into nuclear states.

But tearing up the deal was the wrong approach to solving the problem. Stop pouring hundreds of billions of dollars in weapons to the region, as Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif pointed out recently, is the problem. By doing this he took both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping off his side of the table.

Now he stands isolated with only the provocateurs – Israel, the U.K., Saudi Arabia – trying to goad him forward into doing something he doesn’t want to do. And all of those provocations that have occurred in the past month have failed to move either Trump or the Iranians. They’ve learned patience, possibly from Putin. Call it geopolitical rope-a-dope, if you will.

I said last month that the key to solving Iran’s nuclear ambitions was solving the relationship with North Korea. Trump, smartly, went there, doing what only he could do, talk with DPRK Chairman Kim Jong-Un and reiterate his sincere desire to end proliferation of nuclear weapons.

He can get Iran to the table but he’s going to have to give up something. So, now framing the negotiations with Iran around their demands we stop arming the Saudis is politically feasible.

Trump can’t, at this point, back down directly with Iran. Yemen is deeply unpopular here and ending our support of it would be a boon to Trump politically. Trading that for some sanctions relief would be a good first step to solving the mess he’s in and build some trust.

Firing John Bolton, which looks more likely every day, would be another.

He’s already turning a blind eye to Iranian exports to China, and presumably, other places. I think the Brits are acting independently trying to create havoc and burnish Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt’s resume as Prime Minister against Boris Johnson. That’s why they hijacked the oil tanker.

But all the little distractions are nothing but poison pills to keep from discussing the real issues. Trump just cut through all that. So did Iran. Let’s hope they stay focused.

end
IRAN/USA
Trump will surely be angry a this:  A supposed CIA spy ring is sentenced to death in Iran.  Tensions between Iran and the USA are now at the boiling point.
(zerohedge)

Iran Sentences “CIA Spy Ring” To Death; Publishes Video & Photos Of Americans

Iran has handed down the death penalty to alleged members of a CIA-spy ring inside Iran’s military, which authorities said they uncovered earlier this year. And now for the first time, state media is circulating photos purporting to show some among the alleged CIA-linked operatives.

“The identified spies were employed in sensitive and vital private sector centers in the economic, nuclear, infrastructure, military and cyber areas… where they collected classified information,” Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence said on state television. They had been working “contractors or consultants,” the statement said.

Fars News Agency@EnglishFars

Iran Releases Photos of CIA Officers Handling Spieshttps://bit.ly/2GnXXBN

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Iranian judiciary spokesman Gholamhossein Esmaili had first announced in June that a number among seventeen total alleged spies rounded up were facing execution because of the “severity of their crimes,” as reported by NBC. The unnamed defendants were reportedly associated with the Iranian military and also followed a similar announcement madelast August the arrest of “tens of spies” uncovered within the government.

The agencies “successfully dismantled a (CIA) spy network,” an official only identified as head of counter-intelligence at the Iranian intelligence ministry, told reporters in Tehran. Arrests reportedly began in March

“Those who deliberately betrayed the country were handed to the judiciary… some were sentenced to death and some to long-term imprisonment,” he said, as cited by the AFP. However, the photos published – which appear to show Americans – only claim these are officers which had been “handling” the spies supposedly caught inside Iran.

Reza Khaasteh@Khaaasteh

Photos of the some of the CIA intelligence officers and spies arrested by Iran. They are 17 spies, some of whom have received death sentences. Iran is going to broadcast a documentary on their arrest today.

View image on Twitter

Reza Khaasteh@Khaaasteh

Some of the CIA agents’ documents

View image on Twitter

None of the initial photos released showed those pictured in any kind of detention or interrogation, but instead most appeared to be personal or family photos. As Reuters reports:

Iranian state television published images it said showed the CIA officers who were in touch with the suspected spies.

There was no immediate comment on the Iranian allegations by the CIA or U.S. officials.

Additionally, in another stunning development, an Iranian television documentary aired Monday which claimed to show footage of an alleged CIA officer attempting to recruit an unidentified Iranian man. The footage was presented as taking place inside the United Arab Emirates.

Documents alleging to “prove” the allegations were also posted online by Iranian media channels.

Reza Khaasteh@Khaaasteh

First video released of one of the CIA spies in Iran

Embedded video

“Because there are so many intelligence officers in Dubai. It is very dangerous… Iranian intelligence,” a blond-haired woman was shown telling the man. According to Reuters:

The woman spoke Persian with an accent which appeared to be American.

State media outlets had touted the documentary as dealing a heavy blow “to a CIA spy network in the region and beyond.

Press TV

@PressTV

⚡️⚡️⚡️ Coming soon on @PressTV: The Mole Hunt ⚡️⚡️⚡️ has dealt a heavy to a @CIA spy network in the region and beyond. The upcoming documentary will shed more light on Iran’s counter-intelligence operations.

Embedded video

The photos and video purporting to show CIA assets and operatives have yet to be confirmed or denied by US political or intelligence officials and come amid already soaring tensions have put the region on edge, and as Britain has demanded the release of the UK-flagged tanker Stena Impero, captured in the Strait of Hormuz Friday.

END
UK/EU/Iran
Well that did not take long:  The UK announces a joint European task force to patrol the Perisan Gulf
(zerohedge)

UK Announces Joint European Task Force To Patrol Persian Gulf

Previously US allies had rebuffed and resisted White house calls for an anti-Iran naval forces, fearing it would worsen already soaring tensions, but it appears last Friday’s dramatic Iranian military seizure of two British tankers (with one, the UK-flagged Stena Impero still in Iran’s custody) has changed Europe’s tune.

Addressing Britain’s Parliament in London on Monday, UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt announced a “European-led maritime protection mission to support safe passage of crew and cargo” in the Persian Gulf. The goal, he described, would be to provide safe passage for international vessels in the vital oil transit waterway, protecting them from Iranian “state piracy”.

 

Image via UK Defence Journal

“Let us be clear, under international law Iran had no right to obstruct the ship’s passage, let alone board her,” Hunt told the House of Commons. “It was therefore an act of state piracy.”

“We will seek to put together a European-led maritime protection mission to support safe passage of crew and cargo in this vital region,” he said. However, he still sought to distance the new initiative from the US military build-up in the gulf.

“We have had constructive discussion with a number of countries in the last 48 hours and we will discuss later this week the best way to complement this with recent U.S. proposals in this area,” Hunt said.

The foreign secretary said the planned European mission was not part of the U.S. policy of exerting “maximum pressure” on Iran.

It was not clear which countries will join the protection force Hunt is discussing, or how quickly it can be put in place. — Associated Press

His announcement came the same day Iran paraded the Stena Impero’s international crew in front of cameras.

The majority of the crew was previously reported as having Indian nationality, and the government of India has over the weekend sought to negotiate their release with Tehran.

Ruptly

@Ruptly

Crew from captured British-flagged shown on Iranian State TV

Embedded video

Immediately following last Friday’s escalation, which involved IRGC operatives fast-roping down to the Stena Impero’s deck, Hunt promised “robust” action and threatened “serious consequences” against Tehran. Iran, for its part, says it’s rightly responding to the UK’s early July seizure of the Grace 1, which been transporting 2 million barrels of Iranian oil to Syria.

An unnamed Western diplomat told Reuters last week“The Americans want to create an ‘alliance of the willing’ who confront future attacks,” but at the time asserted, “Nobody wants to be on that confrontational course and part of a U.S. push against Iran.”

But it appears the UK’s hand has been forced, now establishing just such a force in the gulf. The Royal Navy currently has a couple of warships escorting tankers out of the region, with further new unconfirmed reports that it’s deployed a nuclear-powered attack submarine to the region to bolster its force.

end

Turkey
We have been covering this story for the past several months.  It seems that Turkey is set to invade Cyprus to get a stranglehold on the huge gas discovery.
(zerohedge)

Turkey Prepared To Re invade Cyprus If Needed – Erdogan Says Following EU Sanctions

Turkey’s military is prepared to re invade Cyprus “if needed for the lives and security of Turkish Cypriots,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday.

“The entire world is watching our determination. No one should doubt that the heroic Turkish army, which sees [Northern] Cyprus as its homeland, will not hesitate to take the same step it took 45 years ago if needed for the lives and security of the Turkish Cypriots,” state-run Anadolu News Agency quoted Erdogan as saying.

Erdogan issued the statement as the nation marks the 45th anniversary of Turkey’s deeply controversial invasion of northern Cyprus in 1974, long condemned by the bulk of UN member countries.

But the provocative remarks come amidst what EU-member Cyprus has dubbed a “second invasion” involving illegal Turkish oil and gas drilling, accompanied by Turkish warships, F-16s, and drones to ensure “protection” of its drilling vessels.

The EU agreed on Monday to bring financial and political sanctions against Turkey after repeat warnings of the past weeks over Ankara deploying multiple offshore drilling vessels into international recognized Cypriot waters.

The European Union announced Monday from Brussels:

“Today, we will adopt a number of measures against Turkey — less money, fewer loans through the European Investment Bank, freeze of aviation agreement talks. Naturally, other sanctions are possible.”

The most serious measure will involve a cut of 145.8 million euros ($164 million) in European funds allocated to Turkey for 2020, according to a prior AFP report

Erdogan appeared to directly address the crisis in his Saturday statement:

“Those who think the wealth of the island and the region only belongs to them will face the determination of Turkey and Turkish Cypriots.” 

…Indicating an unwillingness to back down on Turkey’s oil and gas exploration claims inside Greek Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone.

“Those who dream of changing the fact that Turkish Cypriots are an integral part of the Turkish nation will soon realize that it is in vain,” Erdogan added.

Turkey has laid claim to a waters extending a whopping 200 miles from its coast, brazenly asserting ownership over a swathe of the Mediterranean that even cuts into Greece’s exclusive economic zone. So far Ankara has responded to EU sanctions by reaffirming its rights to waters of all parts of Cyprus’ coast.

Should the Turkish military attempt to enforce its drilling claims and run up against Cypriot and Greek vessels, it could spark a deadly encounter which would force the EU and NATO to finally weigh in more forcefully.

And just on the heels of the Russian S-400 standoff with Washington, the next major Turkish showdown with the West looks to be fast heating up in the eastern Mediterranean.

end

6.Global Issues

A short but excellent presentation from Graham Summers as he outlines the 3 key ares which can bring down the financial system

(courtesy Graham Summers)

July 22, 2019

Is This What Has Got the Fed So Spooked?

Just what exactly is terrifying the Fed?

Over the last week, multiple Fed officials have surfaced to suggest the Fed needs to start cutting interest rates right now.

Indeed, on Thursday, John Williams, who runs the NY Fed (the branch in charge of market operations) suggested the Fed needs to cut rates to ZERO again.

Not 2%, or 1%, ZERO.

This is happening at a time when economic data is rebounding, unemployment is below 4% and GDP growth is north of 3%.

So what exactly is going on? What does the Fed know that has it so terrified, because it’s obviously not the US economy.

1)   Deutsche Bank (DB) is imploding.

Sitting atop over $49 trillion in OCT derivatives, DB is like Lehman Brothers 2.0. And despite the best efforts of management and the authorities, the bank is imploding. DB shares were rejected by resistance last week, ending the “hope bounce” from recent moves to curtail the blow up.

GPC72219.png

2)   China’s banking system is freezing.

China experienced its first financial institution failure in 21 years in June.  Depositors and creditors lost 30% of their deposits in the process.

Put another way, nearly 30% of their money is GONE.

The Chinese banking authorities are attempting to piece the system back together, but it’s not working. The duress has yet to spill over into the Chinese stock market, but on Friday interbank lending in the mainland temporarily spiked to 1,000%, meaning a large bank was willing to pay ANYTHING in order to get access to capital.

This is EXTREMELY similar to what happened to the US credit markets n 2008.

And finally…

3)   The Everything Bubble has burst.

The single most important bond in the world is the 10-Year US Treasury Bond. And thanks to the Fed’s tightening policy in 2018, it burst, with the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury breaking its 20-year downtrend.

The Fed is trying to get yields back into this downtrend. But it’s not going well. The yield temporarily broke back below the downtrend last month, but is beginning to bounce again.

GPC722192.png

If the Fed cannot get this situation under control, there’s $555 trillion in derivatives at stake. Yes, TRILLION with a T.

Something BIG is coming and the Fed knows it.

Graham Summers

7. OIL ISSUES

Nick Cunningham explains why USA shale is doomed no matter what happens

(zerohedge)

Why US Shale Is Doomed No Matter What They Do

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

With financial stress setting in for U.S. shale companies, some are trying to drill their way out of the problem, while others are hoping to boost profitability by cutting costs and implementing spending restraint. Both approaches are riddled with risk.

“Turbulence and desperation are roiling the struggling fracking industry,” Kathy Hipple and Tom Sanzillo wrote in a note for the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

They point to the example of EQT, the largest natural gas producer in the United States. A corporate struggle over control of the company reached a conclusion recently, with the Toby and Derek Rice seizing power. The Rice brothers sold their company, Rice Energy, to EQT in 2017. But they launched a bid to take over EQT last year, arguing that the company’s leadership had failed investors. The Rice brothers convinced shareholders that they could steer the company in a better direction promising $500 million in free cash flow within two years.

Their bet hinged on more aggressive drilling while simultaneously reducing costs. Their strategy also depends on “new, unproven, expensive technology, electric frack fleets,” IEEFA argued. “This seems like more of the same – big risky capital expenditures.”

EQT’s former CEO Steve Schlotterbeck recently made headlines when he called fracking an “unmitigated disaster” because it helped crash prices and produce mountains of red ink.

“In fact, I’m not aware of another case of a disruptive technological change that has done so much harm to the industry that created the change,” Schlotterbeck said at an industry conference in June.

IEEFA draws a contrast between Schlotterbeck and the Rice brothers. While the latter wants advocates a strategy of stepping up drilling in an effort to grow their way out of the problem, the former argues that this approach has been tried over and over with poor results. Instead, Schlotterbeck said that drillers need to cut spending and production, which could revive natural gas prices.

But while the philosophies differ – relentless growth versus restraint – IEEFA argues that “neither of these strategies seem viable.” On the one hand, natural gas prices are expected to stay below $3 per MMBtu, a price that is unlikely to lead to profits, IEEFA says. That is especially true if shale companies aggressively spend and produce more gas.

However, a strategy of restraint may not work either.

“[E]ven if natural gas producers coordinate their activities and reduce supply—a highly unlikely prospect—Schlotterbeck’s expectation that natural gas prices would inevitably rise is questionable,” IEEFA analysts wrote.

There are few reasons why natural gas prices might not rebound. For instance, any increase in natural gas prices will only induce more renewable energy. Costs for solar, wind and even energy storage has plunged. For years, natural gas was the cheapest option, but that is no longer the case. Renewable energy increasingly beats out gas on price, which means that natural gas prices will run into resistance when they start to rise as demand would inevitably slow.

A second reason why prices might not rise is because public policy is beginning to really work against the gas industry. IEEFA pointed to the recent decision in New York to block the construction of Williams Co.’s pipeline that would have connected Appalachian gas to New York City. In fact, New York seems to be heading in a different direction, recently passing one of the most ambitious and comprehensive pieces of climate and energy bills in the nation. Or, look to Berkeley, California, which just became the first city in the country to ban the installation of natural gas lines in new homes. As public policy increasingly targets the demand side of the equation, natural gas prices face downward pressure.

Another complication for natural gas producers is that the petrochemical industry, which is attracting tens billions of dollars in investment due to the belief that natural gas will remain cheap in perpetuity. Gas producers, who want higher prices, are in conflict with petrochemical manufacturers, who need cheap feedstocks.

“Companies like Shell, which is considering a $6 billion petrochemical investment, must choose: absorb a higher price cost structure for natural gas liquids (NGLs) needed to produce its product, while facing stiff global competition in the petrochemical business. Or, intensify capital commitments and take over the fracking business, hoping to find synergies through integration,” IEEFA noted.

“Both of these scenarios change the risk profile Shell has described to justify its aggressive expansion plans in the Ohio Valley.”

The upshot is that while companies like EQT undertake a major shift in strategy, the road ahead remains rocky either way. “More bankruptcies are all but certain as oil and gas borrowers must repay or refinance several hundred billion dollars of debt over the next six months,” IEEFA concluded.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

HUMOUROUS STORY OF THE DAY

Hilarious Hypocrisy: Sanders Campaign Workers Demand $15 Minimum Hourly Wage

In the Senate, Bernie Sanders is battling to raise the national minimum wage to $15 an hour (a decision that would almost certainly lead to the destruction of millions of low-skill, low-pay jobs, but we digress). But some of his own campaign workers say they’re being forced to survive on less – some calculate their pay at $13 an hour for a 60-hour workweek – and now they’re demanding more.

Sanders’ unionized campaign organizers have leaked a story to the Washington Post where they complain about how their pay doesn’t meet the standards that Sanders supposedly believes should be applied to all Americans.

Bernie

The embarrassing story, Sanders’ campaign field organizers, who occupy the lowest rung on the campaign staff ladder, complain that they’re being forced to depend on payday loans to survive and that, in one state, four people have quit in the past month because of their financial struggles (though, if one is struggling financially, giving up one’s only source of income would seem to make little sense).

One field organizer complained in the Sanders’ campaign internal Slack that he needed more money “because I need to be able to feed myself.”

Another utilized the rhetorical concept of irony by quoting a Sanders speech: “As you know, real change never takes place from the top on down, it always takes place from the bottom on up.”

Furthermore, the demands for higher salaries come just months after the Sanders campaign workers union and the campaign leadership reached a collective bargaining agreement that was effective as of May 2.

The agreement established wage classifications for national and state staff, ranging from $15 an hour for interns and canvassers to $100,000 annual salaries for bargaining unit deputies.

Field organizers, who are on the front lines of the campaign’s crucial voter contact efforts, were to be paid not by hours worked but via an annual salary set at $36,000. Regional field directors were to be paid $48,000 annually, and statewide department directors were allocated $90,000 per year.

But shortly after the agreement was reached, the complaints started pouring in. Sanders’ campaign manager Faiz Shakir swiftly called an all-staff meeting where he proposed a modified agreement with modestly higher pay. But in a vote, Shakir’s deal was rejected.

The messages caught Shakir’s attention, and later that day he sent an email to the staff thanking them for their comments. “I do believe you are owed an explanation for the situation we find ourselves in,” he wrote in an email obtained by The Post.

In his email, Shakir recapped his thinking from May 17 and expressed regret with the outcome.

“I have no idea what debates and conversations were had, but candidly, it was a disappointing vote from my perspective,” he wrote of the union’s decision to reject his proposal. “But the campaign leadership respected the union process and the will of the membership.”

Shakir said that it would be damaging to the campaign’s budget to implement a pay hike after expanding field staff based on previously planned salary figures. In conclusion, he said, he would negotiate the matter only through the channels established by the union arrangement.

Now, the union is preparing to send Shakir and the rest of the campaign leadership a new (presumably budget busting) proposal.

Here are some of their demands:

  • That field organizers receive a salary of $46,800, while regional field directors be paid $62,400.
  • That the campaign cover 100% of the health-care costs for employees making $60,000 or less a year (currently, the campaign pays all premiums for salaried employees making $36,000 or less, while those making more are covered at a rate of 85%).
  • That campaign staff be reimbursed for automobile transportation at $0.58 per mile while they’re traveling around canvassing for Sanders.

In a draft letter to Sanders’ campaign manager obtained by the Washington Post, the campaign workers said they “cannot be expected to build the largest grassroots organizing program in American history while making poverty wages Given our campaign’s commitment to fighting for a living wage of at least $15 an hour, we believe it is only fair that the campaign would carry through this commitment to its own field team.”

Their union issued a nebulous statement about the workers’ demands on Thursday night.

In a statement issued earlier Thursday night, the union representing the campaign workers, United Food & Commercial Workers Local 400, said it could not comment “on specific, ongoing internal processes between our members and their employer.”

“As union members, the Bernie 2020 campaign staff have access to myriad protections and benefits secured by their one-of-a-kind union contract, including many internal avenues to democratically address any number of ongoing workplace issues, including changes to pay, benefits, and other working conditions,” the statement said.

“We look forward to continuing to work closely with our members and the management of the Bernie 2020 campaign to ensure all workers have dignity and respect in the workplace.”

While some of Sanders’ campaign workers insist they won’t be able to build a primary-winning machine without being paid “a living wage” the sad reality – for Bernie – is that raising the pay of the campaign’s lowest-paid workers by 50% will force the campaign to shed personnel and ultimately have fewer people in the field out there canvassing.

We wonder: What kind of impact do they think that will have on Bernie’s chances?

END

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1215 DOWN .0002 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.90 UP 0.243 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2462   DOWN   0.0028  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3068 UP .0018 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 2 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1215 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 37.23 POINTS OR 1.67% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 394.14 POINTS OR 1.37%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,07%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 394.14 POINTS OR 1.37%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37,23 POINTS OR 1.27%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 07% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 50.20  POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1426.05

silver:$16.37-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.04% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.56 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.19 UP 5 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.46% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.14%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.39%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,65 up 11 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 126 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.35% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.00% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1215  DOWN     .0002 or 2 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.89 up .235 OR YEN UP 23  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2476 down .0015 POUND DOWN 15  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 61 basis points to 1.3118

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8812    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8828  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6867 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.14%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.03 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.55 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.24 UP 8  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 3.70  0.09%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 29.33 POINTS OR .24%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 14.68 POINTS 0.26%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 7.00 POINTS or 0.08%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 94.24 POINTS OR 0.44%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.28 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.44 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.05  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.35 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.22//

 

 

BRENT :  63.42

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.05…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.57..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1207 ( DOWN 11   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.88 UP .217 (YEN DOWN 22 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.28 UP 13 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA: 1.2475 DOWN 16  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6793

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.09   DOWN 0.07 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3113 DOWN 64 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8811  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8737 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.35%

 

The Dow closed UP 17.70 POINTS OR 0.06%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 57.65 POINTS OR 0.71%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.56 CLOSED DOWN .89

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.256%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

 

Semis Soar, Small Caps Sink, Silver Surges

Seemed appropriate…

 

Chinese stocks were not pretty. Despite STAR soaring, ChiNext tumbled along with Shenzhen as it appears liquidity moved to the new index…

 

European markets (except Spain) managed to cling to gains on the day thanks to 4 notable impulses…

 

Nasdaq dramatically outperformed led by semis. Small Caps were the biggest losers. Dow ended unchanged (Boeing down vs Apple up)

NOTE – Trannies and Small Caps notably decoupled at around 1400ET only to see a mysteriously large buy program strike at 1500ET

 

Small Caps continue to dramatically diverge from big caps (and mega cap tech)…

 

Small Caps also closed below their 100DMA…

 

 

Volume was low – around 20% below average…

 

There were two ‘failed’ attempts at yet another short-squeeze today…

 

Semis soared on the day following Goldman’s upgrade on Micron…

 

But while Semis spiked, FANG stocks were flat…

 

 

Bonds and stocks remain in their own – buy all the things – worlds…

 

Treasury yields traded in a narrow range today, with yields down across the curve led by the belly…

 

10Y Yield dropped to 2.02% intraday but the yield curve (3m10Y) remains inverted (41st day in a row)…

 

The T-Bill curve remains kinked around potential debt ceiling X-date…

 

The dollar index managed very modest gains, holding above last week’s Williams’ speech plunge levels..

 

 

Cryptos were mixed over the weekend with Bitcoin Cash holding gains but ETH and BTC lower after a leg lower this morning…

 

Bitcoin continues to hover between $10,000 and $11,000…

 

Dr.Copper is lagging as silver resurges…

 

Oil prices managed some gains today as Iran tensions resurfaced in the narratives…

 

Silver continues to rise…

 

Silver has outperformed gold for six straight days (longest streak since June 2018), erasing most of the relative gains for the year…

 

Finally, don’t forget, it’s different this time…

Except it’s all about liquidity, stupid…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Chicago fed’s National Activity index falls for the 7th straight month

(zerohedge)

Fed’s National Activity Index Contracts For 7th Straight Month – Longest Streak Since 2009

Against hope-filled expectations of 0.08 print, Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index disappointed once again, down 0.02 in June. This is the seventh month of declines in a row – the longest streak of contraction since the financial crisis.

36 indicators improved from May to June, while 49 indicators deteriorated (but of the indicators that improved, nine made negative contributions).

40 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions, while 45 indicators affected the index negatively.

Only the ’employment’-related indicators suggested growth in June…

And this is all happening with stocks at record highs?

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Interesting: despite plenty of improvements, trump has not built a single mile of new border fencing

(zerohedge)

Despite Plenty Of Improvements, Trump Hasn’t Built A Single Mile Of New Border Fencing

After more than two years fighting with Democrats over border security, the Trump administration has replaced plenty of dilapidated barriers – yet hasn’t built a single mile of border fencing in open, unprotected sections of the southern US border, according to the Washington Examiner‘s Anna Giaritelli.

In a statement last week, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the federal agency overseeing border barrier construction, confirmed that all the fencing completed since Trump took office is “in place of dilapidated designs” because the existing fence was in need of replacement. –Washington Examiner

CBP said that 51 miles of steel bollard fence had been replaced using funds set aside during FY2017 and 2018, however construction of new barriers where there aren’t any is ‘in the works’ according to the report.

The 50 miles of completed replacement barrier is a 10-mile gain since early April. In Trump’s two and a half years in office, his administration has installed an average 1.7 miles of barrier per month, and none of it in areas that did not previously have some sort of barrier. A total 205 miles of new and replacement barrier has been funded in the two and a half years since Trump took office. –Washington Examiner

Red tape?

One reason given to the Examiner for the lack of fencing in open-border regions is due to a difficult approval process for environmental zoning permits, according to a senior administration official. Another senior official blamed Democrats for blocking wall projects that the administration wants to complete.

“The wall projects are moving along as quickly as practicably possible given the unprecedented obstruction from Democrat lawmakers to protect and prolong open borders,” wrote the official, adding “These same obstructionists, including many who once supported border barriers, are the same people who would abolish ICE and DHS, let criminals run free across our borders, and turned a blind eye to the scourge human trafficking and child sex slavery enabled by their policies.”

Despite the slow (or no) progress in safeguarding unsecured portions of the border, Trump is applauding his administration for the progress made in reinforcing the current barriers.

Trump’s 2020 campaign debuted the slogan “Finish the Wall” at his first rally of 2019 in El Paso, Texas. At one point during his speech, the crowd began cheering “build that wall.” Trump responded“Now, you really mean ‘finish that wall,’ because we’ve built a lot of it,” though he did not share numbers with the thousands of people in attendance. –Washington Examiner

In 2017, Congress approved $341 million for 40 miles of replacement wall in San Diego, California; Santa Teresa, North Mexico; Calexico, California; and El Paso, Texas.

“To this date, CBP has completed the construction of approximately 99 percent of the 40 miles funded in fiscal year 2017. Additionally, construction of 35 gates to close gaps in current border infrastructure in the Rio Grande Valley sector continues,” according to a DHS statement.

Approximately 400 miles is steel fencing comparable to theplanned new wall, only shorter. The other 300 miles of barrier is Normandy style, or a handful of steel beams fastened together to prevent vehicular traffic from getting by. However, the four-foot-tall fence does not prevent people from crossing. –Washington Examiner

The Trump administration was sued earlier this year after reallocating $6.6 billion from the Pentagon and elsewhere to fund border wall construction. The move was blocked by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals – which the Supreme Court is expected to weigh in on over the next few weeks following a request from the Justice Department.

end
NY experiences its 2nd weekend of power failures..
(zerohedge)

There Is No Excuse For What Happened” – 50,000 Con Ed Customers Lose Power During Deadly Heatwave

This weekend’s record-setting heatwave roasted 200 million Americans inhabiting the eastern two-thirds of the country, but some had it worse than others.

While most of those affected had the option of beating the heat by staying indoors, power outages in Brooklyn and Queens left more than 50,000 people temporarily without power – and thus, no AC – subjecting them to the punishing heat, which was blamed for at least six deaths.

New York Daily News

Now, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is expanding a probe into the recent power failures, as some 20,000 customers remained without power early Monday morning. Cuomo said he had directed the State Department of Public Service to expand its investigation into ConEd outages, which it opened after a failure last weekend left 72,000 customers in Manhattan’s West Side without power for hours.

Outage

Con Edison said its crews are responding to power outages and will continue working throughout the day to restore power to as many customers as possible.

Cuomo also declared the heatwave “a natural disaster” and insisted that ConEd should have been better prepared.

“We have been through this situation with ConEd time and again, and they should have been better prepared,” Cuomo said in a statement.“This was not a natural disaster; there is no excuse for what has happened in Brooklyn.”

While it didn’t respond to Cuomo, the company has said that it took some customers in southeast Brooklyn out of service to protect sensitive equipment, and said it would restore power as quickly as possible. Brooklyn neighborhoods impacted include Canarsie, Flatlands, Mill Basin, Old Mill Basin, Bergen Beach and Georgetown. Another 27,000 lost power on Long Island.

The exact number of people impacted was difficult to tally, since an individual ConEd customer could be a single-family home or a large apartment building, according to Bloomberg.

As usual, Mayor de Blasio was no help, though at least this time he was present at his office, and not out campaigning in Iowa, during the outage. He provided regular updates on his twitter feed.

Mayor Bill de Blasio

@NYCMayor

I just spoke to Con Ed’s president about tonight’s outages. Their system in parts of Brooklyn is under severe strain and some equipment has failed.

Several NYC public schools will be closed on Monday due to the outages.

The outages created dangerous conditions on the road, leading to many near-accidents like this one at certain particularly dangerous intersections.

Lisa Rozner@LisaRoznerTV

Near accident at dangerous intersection of Mill Ave & Ave U in where traffic lights out due to power outage plaguing S Brooklyn @CBSNewYork

Embedded video

ConEd has asked customers to try and conserve power while it works to repair equipment.

But whether ConEd turns the AC back on or not, everybody will feel some relief on Monday as the heat wave is expected to pass and heat advisories are expected to be lifted for a large swath of the US. The heatwave initially stretched from Oklahoma to Ohio toward the middle of the country, and along the East Coast from Maine to South Carolina.

END

USA is now back to the air bases in Saudi Arabia…the same procedures used during all previous middle east wars.

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

US Starts Staging Troops At Key Saudi Military Base Used During All Previous Middle East Wars

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The U.S. military is following many of the exact same patterns that we witnessed during our previous wars in the Middle East, and that even includes setting up shop at a key military base deep in the heart of the Arabian peninsula.  After the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, the U.S. military abandoned Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, but now they are back.  Hundreds of U.S. troops are already there working hard to get the base operational, and as you will see below, a tremendous amount of new construction is planned.  The base covers “well over a hundred square miles”, and so it has more than enough room to serve as a central hub for a new Middle East war. 

Tensions with Iran have escalated dramatically over the past few weeks, but apparently somebody anticipated that the U.S. would need to use this base even before then, because according to NBC News U.S. troops were already arriving back in June

In June the U.S. military began moving equipment and hundreds of troops back to a military base in Saudi Arabia that the U.S. deserted more than 15 years ago, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the deployment.

Over the coming weeks the deployment to Prince Sultan Air Base, intended to counter the threat from Iran, will grow to include fighter jets and Patriot long-range missile defense systems, the officials said. The Patriots have already arrived at the base and should be operational in mid-July, while the aircraft are expected to arrive in August.

And it turns out that the U.S. military has used this base during all of our previous wars in the Middle East.

For example, according to Air Force Magazine the U.S. military first occupied Prince Sultan Air Base for a few months during Operation Desert Storm…

The US Air Force first occupied the sprawling base in two frantic months from November 1990 to January 1991, then departed. Five years later, USAF and coalition forces moved back into the base. It quickly became a massive facility, home to a state-of-the-art air operations center and serving as the hub for air activity in the region.

Then later on, the base played a key role during the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan.  The following comes from the Military Times

Starting with the January 1991 air war against Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait the previous summer, the U.S. flew a wide range of aircraft from Prince Sultan air base, originally known as al-Kharj. Supported by an all-American array of creature comforts like fast-food restaurants and swimming pools, U.S. forces there flew and maintained Air Force fighters and other warplanes.

The base also served as a launch pad for the December 1998 bombing of Iraq, code-named Operation Desert Fox, which targeted sites believed to be associated with Iraq’s nuclear and missile programs. In 2001, the base became home to the U.S. military’s main air control organization, known as the Combined Air Operations Center, which orchestrated the air war in Afghanistan until it was relocated in 2003 to al-Udeid air base in Qatar.

But U.S. activity at the base didn’t reach a crescendo until Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003.  Here is more from Air Force Magazine

Other delicate negotiations came down to the wire just before the start of Operation Iraqi Freedom. “We’ve had very productive meetings regarding military cooperation with Saudi Arabia in the event of military action against Iraq,” State Department official Richard Boucher announced Feb. 26, 2003.

That day, newspapers reported that the Saudis granted formal permission for PSAB to be used in the war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Operation Iraqi Freedom began March 19.

Once again, PSAB pulled its weight in the air campaign. Fuel was a metric showing just how far PSAB had come since 1996. Prince Sultan Air Base operated at maximum rates during major combat operations in Operation Iraqi Freedom from March 19 to May 1, 2003. During that time, the 363rd Fuels Management Flight issued more than one million gallons per day. Officials had previously expanded the fuel storage capacity at Prince Sultan from two million to more than 15 million gallons.

So as you can see, every time the U.S. has decided to go to war in the Middle East, Prince Sultan Air Base has played a leading role.

And now after all this time we have suddenly returned.

This time around, it appears that the U.S. is planning for a very long stay.  According to NBC News, existing roads and runways will be reinforced and expanded, and the U.S. military is even going to “build a medical facility”…

While Prince Sultan Air Base is an active facility, portions of the base will need an upgrade to accommodate the U.S. military, including reinforcing and expanding roads and runways, one U.S. official said. Base housing will also need updating, the official said, and the U.S. will build a medical facility. Many of the U.S. service members deployed there over the past few weeks are engineers preparing the base for the new mission.

Apparently whoever is in charge of making these sorts of decisions is not very optimistic about peace with Iran.

A tremendous amount of money and effort is required for a project like this, because it is basically the equivalent of putting up a small American city in the middle of nowhere.  The base covers “well over a hundred square miles”, and all the way back in 2002 Wolf Blitzer called it “a little sliver of America in the middle of the Arabian Peninsula”

“By the time the base complex was completed in 1999, it had cost the government of Saudi Arabia more than $1 billion and covered well over a hundred square miles,” found Air Force historian Daniel L. Haulman.

Food was also a priority. Baskin-Robbins ice cream set up shop as did other popular vendors such as Pizza Inn and Burger King. In time, the exchange provided a small haven of food, shopping, and diversion. “It’s a little sliver of America in the middle of the Arabian Peninsula,” enthused CNN’s war correspondent Wolf Blitzer, who visited the base in December 2002 as forces there prepared for intensifying action against Iraq.

I suppose that the Saudis want us to be as comfortable as possible if we are going to fight a war that will greatly benefit them.

After all, the Saudis and the Iranians have been engaged in a proxy war for many years, and so the Saudis would be absolutely thrilled to see the U.S. military bomb the living daylights out of them.

And Saudi Arabia’s minister of state for foreign affairs actually sounds quite eager for the action to start

“Any attack on the freedom of navigation is a violation of international law,” Adel Aljubeir said in a Twitter post.

“Iran must realise its acts of intercepting ships, including most recently the British ship, are completely unacceptable. The world community must take action to deter such behaviour,” he added.

But as I discussed in a previous article, if the American people truly understood what a war against Iran would be like, there would be millions of protesters in Washington D.C. right now trying to stop it from happening.  It would be a horrible, bloody, apocalyptic war that would set the entire Middle East ablaze, and it would set the stage for the sort of nightmare scenarios that I have been relentlessly warning about.

Unfortunately, so far only a very small portion of the U.S. population seems alarmed about any of this.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is rapidly preparing for war, and Prince Sultan Air Base is now buzzing with U.S. military activity for the very first time since the invasion of Iraq.

end

 

Boeing drops after Fitch lowers its rating to single A as well as a possible further downgrade

 

(zerohedge)

 

Boeing Drops, Drags Dow To Session Lows After Fitch Puts Single-A Rating In Danger Of Downgrade

With the ongoing debacle over the 737 MAX seemingly getting worse by the day, a potentially far more ominous development hit today when rating agency Fitch warned that it may downgrade Boeing as the grounding of the ill-fated airplane stretches into the 5th month.

Citing regulatory uncertainty around the return to service of Boeing’s workhorse jet and the “growing logistical challenge” of getting parked planes back in the air, Fitch said Boeing’s credit rating was threatened as its cut its credit outlook for the aerospace giant while confirming its single-A, the sixth-highest investment-grade rating, and adding that there’s also a risk that the company will have to make costlier concessions to airlines.

The challenge for Boeing is not just how to get the grounded planes in the air; in the longer term, Fitch said the Max’s grounding presents a significant public-relations challenge that will remain a risk for “Boeing’s reputation and brand” into next year and beyond.

“Fitch also expects there will be a lingering operating-margin impact for several years after the 737 Max returns to service,” the ratings company said.

Boeing is currently rated A2 by Moody and A by S&P, which both have stable outlooks on the company, although we expect these to be cut soon now that Fitch has broken the seal. S&P said last week that Boeing’s announcement that it will be taking a $5.6 billion pretax charge to compensate for the grounding of the 737 Max wouldn’t affect the company’s credit ratings. But S&P warned that more damaging effects to Boeing’s financials or a “substantial loss” in market share to the 737 could warrant a downgrade.

While Boeing’s bonds were unchanged after Fitch’s report, BA stock dropped and since Boeing is the most important Dow member, the industrial average quickly slumped to session lows.

 

end
Jim Bianco says that the market will be terribly disappointed if we do not get a 50% rate cut
(zerohedge)

Fed’s Asymmetric Bubble-Blowing Policy In Pictures

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The Fed meets on July 31 to make an interest rate policy decision. What should the Fed do?

Jim Bianco at Bianco Research says Only a Half-Point Rate Cut From the Fed Will Do.

Anything less would fail to fix the imbalances in the global bond market, continuing to weigh on economic sentiment,” says Bianco.

By lowering its target for the federal funds rate by just a quarter point, the Fed risks no less than a recession. The Fed has a history of moving too slow to respond to evidence of weaker growth, and a bold move now would help ensure the economy achieves the rare soft landing.”

Jim Bianco@biancoresearch

If the reason the Fed is cutting is the market is demanding it, what is the risk to cutting 50 now? Inflation? Mkt bubble? I think neither.

Compare that to cutting 25 and disappointing the mkt? https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1152654558730096641 

Jim Bianco@biancoresearch

I’ve been arguing for a 50 bps cut. My reasons are in my pinned tweet.

But what is the Fed’s argument? Can anyone articulate any FOMC VOTER argument for cutting?

My answer, … because the markets are pricing it in and the Fed is afraid to defy. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-19/fed-cherry-picked-its-way-to-a-rate-cut-here-s-proof 

I replied

Mike Mish Shedlock@MishGEA

The bubble has already been blown thanks to placating the markets all the way back to the Taper Tantrum and even before by changing mark-to-market rules.

The risk?

Oh nothing, just more reinforcement that the Fed will adhere to market whines no matter how demanding.

Jim Bianco@biancoresearch

See this chart and the tweet thread … the market rarely demands cuts, this is the first time in 11 years.https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1149714292230557696?s=21 

Jim Bianco@biancoresearch

The assumption is the market always wants easier money. So if the Fed “caves” to the market and cuts rates it will come back for more and more. But, as the chart below shows, that is not true.

View image on Twitter privacy

I stand corrected. With his charts, I concede that Bianco made a solid case for cuts.

Yet, his charts highlight something more important.

Fed’s Asymmetric Bubble-Blowing Policy 1992-Present

Chart courtesy of Bianco. The title and blue boxes are my anecdotes.

Bianco notes “In the 1990s the fed funds contracts only went out 6 months. That is why the lines are short. In the 2000s they went out a year, lines are a little longer. Around 2007 they started going out three years, the longest lines.”

Each calendar years is a different color.

So the yellow to the upper right is 2018 (each month end … so Jan 31, Feb 28 and so on, the forward curve projected up to 2021. Black, in a downtrend, is 2009)

Let’s hone in on the period starting 2009.

Fed’s Asymmetric Bubble-Blowing Policy 2009-Present

Market Screaming for Hikes

The market was screaming for hikes for five years.

The Fed did not deliver.

Too Low, Too Long

That the Fed did not deliver hikes as expected is part of its asymmetric policy of keeping interest rates too low, too long,

Bubbles Blown

Without a doubt the Fed blew more bubbles, and likely the biggest in history.

The market responded with a prolonged yield-curve inversion.

Yield Curve

Spread

  • The effective Fed Fund Rate is currently 2.41%.
  • The yield on the three-year Treasury Note is 1.80%.
  • The spread is -0.61 percentage points

Behind the Curve

Bianco is correct. The Fed is behind the curve.

And by his logic it’s not clear that 50 basis points is enough of a cut.

But to what avail?

So What? Bubbles Already Blown

Let’s return to Bianco’s opening gambit: “Anything less would fail to fix the imbalances in the global bond market, continuing to weigh on economic sentiment.

On July 18, I wrote Half-Point Rate Cut Odds Explode to 71% – So What? It Doesn’t Matter!

The Fed, with its asymmetric too-low too-long policy blew bubbles that are impossible to fix.

Too Late for Insurance

Rate cuts now as economic insurance is like trying to buy insurance on your car after you wrecked it.

The bubbles have been blown.

Even if the Fed can correct current “imbalances” it cannot “unblow” bubbles anymore than it can unblow a horn.

Deflationary Bust Baked in the Cake

In the Fed’s foolish attempt to stave off consumer price deflation, the Fed sowed the seeds of a very destructive set of asset bubbles in junk bonds, housing, and the stock market.

The widely discussed “everything bubble” is, in reality, a corporate junk bond bubble on steroids sponsored by the Fed.

For discussion, please see Junk Bond Bubble in Pictures: Deflation Up Next

Rate Cuts Don’t Matter

The bottom line at this point is an economic recession is baked in the cake. The global economy is slowing and the US will not be immune.

The debt deflation horn has already sounded. It will not be unblown no matter how big the cut.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Raul Meijer explains why Jeffery Epstein will be murdered

(courtesy Raul Meijer.)

How Long Is Jeffrey Epstein For This World?

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

First of all, I dearly wish I never had to read or write about Jeffrey Epstein again. But I can’t. And going over the reports about him, and watching the videos below (I’m sure there’s a thousand more), I started thinking I don’t see how he can have much longer to live. (Note as always that if you receive this through email, the videos may not show properly. If someone can explain why, and what to do about that, I’m game. Meanwhile, please go to the TAE site.)

There are three main threats to Jeffrey Epstein’s life (or four, if you include his victims).

No. 1 is his fellow inmates in the Manhattan MCC. He’ll be in very strict isolation, because inmates and pedophilia is a very explosive combination. So isolation, but that’s never 100%.

And Judge Berman yesterday ordered him in jail until his trial(s), instead of in his $77 million Manhattan mansion not far from that same prison, so he’ll be there a while; that trial could take a very long time to happen, even years. All the more chance for an inmate to make an easy $1000 by offing him.

The no. 2 threat is Epstein himself. Berman’s decision means he’s very unlikely to ever get out again. Chances of him being declared innocent are as close to zero as as anything Kelvin. So why would he want to continue to live? Perhaps his lawyers try and tell him he’s always got a shot, and there’s always a next court date, but he doesn’t strike me as fully delusional.

I could be wrong, sure, about much of all this, but I don’t think so.

The no. 3 threat is, obviously, the people he might “sing” about. And that’s an litany of the world’s who’s who. No doubt the FBI may already have their IDs and photos and what-not, but why chance it when you can take down the -potential- crown witness?

Now, if we may believe just 10% of what George Webb talks about in the last video in this article, everybody who’s anybody in government, secret services et al in the whole wide world should feel threatened right now. But those 2,000 pages from 2015 that Judge Berman ordered to be unsealed are not yet public, and you can bet your donkey that the cream of the global lawyer and secret service crop are going over them as you read this.

Will we ever know what Epstein really did? The odds are not in favor of that. But let’s try and have a look anyway. See if we can -to an extent- make up our minds based on that.

First up, an interview with Virginia Roberts Giuffre, one of Epstein’s main accusers. And Ghislaine Maxwell’s, don’t let’s forget that. She’s still walking around free, amazingly.

This is a Miami Herald video linked to Julie K. Brown’s series for the Miami Herald last fall on Epstein. It was posted to YouTube by the Miami Herald on Nov 30, 2018. It took another 8 months for him to be arrested. The 2,000 pages “supposed” to be unsealed soon stem from a case Roberts Giuffre brought in 2015.

Fast forward to the present, this is from RT on July 18, tackling the fact that Judge Berman refused to let Epstein out on bail. It’s not all the greatest stuff, but you DO get the feeling.

This I found interesting, Fox, also from July 18, because it targets Prince Andrew. Is MI6 going to be able to muffle away the obviously very strong and long-term connection between Epstein and Andrew? I’m thinking they’d probably have to get those 2,000 pages re-sealed. Or, you know, burned down. Nuked.

And then there’s George Webb. Now he is, I understand, someone who’s known as a conspiracy theorist, but then many people are in some circles, including myself, This video was posted on July 8 2019, 2 days after Epstein’s arrest. My thought while watching this is he may be wrong on some things, he may even be making a few points up, but when you’re that detailed on events that occurred over such a long time, you’re either on very powerful drugs or you’re not entirely wrong. Check for yourself.

To summarize my thoughts on this, and the reason I started writing this, I can’t see Epstein living much longer. There are too many people who would rather see him dead, including perhaps himself. And there are very few people who want him to get into lengthy talks with prosecutors who are actually looking for the truth.

Now of course we must wonder if any prosecutor wants that truth. Alex Acosta left his US government job because “Epstein is intelligence” was not enough to let him keep his job. And if we can believe some of the stories about the CIA, the State Dept and Mossad being linked to Epstein (and we got worse than that), it looks like he’s just got to go. Unless someone, or some party involved, has a reason to protect him against all odds. If only to handicap some other people.

After this piece I really hope I never have to write about this topic again. My hopes of that are not overly high, but I do have to say I have a very hard time thinking about child -sex- abuse. I also think we must think much harder about why it is that we pick predators to lead our societies. Because this hardly ever fails, doesn’t it? A bunch of sexual deviants rise to the top everywhere.

Sexual predation appears to be some inevitable part of political power. Not everywhere and not all the time, but far too much for comfort.

Let’s hope enough of those predators are exposed through the Jeffrey Epstein case. But, you know, listening to George Webb, you think of the oil sheikhs and the girls being trafficked by Epstein and others, from the Balkans and dirt poor African countries, and you ask yourself, what are the odds of full exposure?

end

Giuliani:  The Epstein case is going to implicate a lot of people

(zerohedge)

Giuliani: Epstein Case “Going To Implicate A Lot Of People”

President Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani said on Monday that the Jeffrey Epstein case “is obviously going to implicate a lot of people,” adding “I can’t tell you who but it’s not going to end up with just Jeffrey Epstein.

Speaking with Hill.TV, Giuliani said that investigators will undoubtedly focus on Epstein’s inner circle, and whether individuals knew or participated in Epstein’s sex crimes.

If you spent this much time with him and he was so involved with these underaged girls — who did you see him with and what was he doing and what did he tell you and what did he say to you and how could you have missed it,” said Giuliani. “Maybe some were innocent — maybe some weren’t, but I think they’re going to investigate everybody.”

The new charges against Epstein come more than a decade after the sixty-five-year-old pleaded guilty to sex trafficking and was sentenced to 13 months in prison. They have since renewed scrutiny on a 2008 plea deal that was secured in part by outgoing Trump administration Labor Secretary Alex Acosta, who resigned this month over the backlash.

Acosta was a U.S. attorney at the time of Epstein’s conviction for soliciting prostitution from underage girls, and allowed Epstein to serve 13 months in “custody with work release.” –The Hill

While Epstein’s involvement with the Clintons and other famous liberals is well known (A donor to the Clintons, Epstein bragged about co-founding the Clinton Global Initiative at one point), many have questioned President Trump’s involvement with the convicted pedophile.

That said, Giuliani’s Monday decree suggests the President is most likely in the clear.

END

The real story behind Ilhan Omar.  Her father was a key player in the genocidal Barre regime.  The family escape Somali and changed their name to enter the uSA. Ilhan married her brother so he could enter the USA

(courtesy Gateway/Hoft)

llhan Omar’s Father was Top Propaganda Official in Genocidal Barre Regime — Then He Changed His Name and Entered US Illegally

On Thursday David Steinberg published an extensive report on the alleged crimes and history of Rep. Ilhan Omar and the “Omar” family.

In his report David found that the Omar family changed their name in order to enter the United States.

Via PowerLineBlog:

In 1995, Ilhan entered the United States as a fraudulent member of the “Omar” family.

That is not her family. The Omar family is a second, unrelated family which was being granted asylum by the United States. The Omars allowed Ilhan, her genetic sister Sahra, and her genetic father Nur Said to use false names to apply for asylum as members of the Omar family.

Ilhan’s genetic family split up at this time. The above three received asylum in the United States, while Ilhan’s three other siblings — using their real names — managed to get asylum in the United Kingdom.

Ilhan Abdullahi Omar’s name, before applying for asylum, was Ilhan Nur Said Elmi.

Her father’s name before applying for asylum was Nur Said Elmi Mohamed. Her sister Sahra Noor’s name before applying for asylum was Sahra Nur Said Elmi. Her three siblings who were granted asylum by the United Kingdom are Leila Nur Said Elmi, Mohamed Nur Said Elmi, and Ahmed Nur Said Elmi.

 

Far Left Communist Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar’s father and other Somalian war crimes perpetrators are currently living illegally in the United States.

No wonder she supports communists, terrorists and illegal aliens!

The Gateway Pundit has obtained information that is damning for Minnesota Congresswoman Ilhan Omar.

Omar’s father, Nur Omar Mohamed (aka Nur Said Elmi Mohamed), is connected to the former dictator in Somalia, Said Barre.  Nur and other former Barre accomplices are living in the US illegally.

Omar’s father Mohamed, is living in the US.  He and other Somalians like Yusuf Abdi Ali, who killed thousands for Barre, escaped to the West and were not vetted properly before entering the country.  Barre was a dictator and was connected to Cuban dictator Fidel Castro as well as other dictators around the globe.

Ali is a convicted war criminal who did the killing himself.  Ali has been located in the US working as security at Dulles International Airport and driving for Uber in 2019.  He reportedly lived at one time in Alexandria, Virginia.  Ali was a Colonel in the Somalian Army’s 5th Mechanized Brigade in 1987 and was a graduate of the Pentegon’s Program for Foreign Officers in 1986.  He’s also a war criminal in response to his actions in Somalia.

Mohamed (aka Nur Said Elmi Mohamed), is connected to the former dictator in Somalia, Said Barre.  Nur and other former Barre accomplices are living in the US illegally.

 

Nur, Representative Omar’s father, appears to have been a party propagandist under the dictator and was responsible for ‘ideological’ aspects of the Red-Green revolution.  (He worked for the Marxist/Stalinist regime under dictator Baare as a teacher of teachers.) This could have included providing the ideological/political justification for the massacres of the late eighties.

It is not a secret that Ilhan Omar’s father illegally entered the United States.

The Nur family was well connected in the country led by the Marxist regime.  Young Omar went to kindergarten at age four, their family lived in a secure compound in Mogadishu.  When the regime was overtaken, the family caught a plane to escape the country.  The average GDP per capita in Somalia was only $187 dollars in 2010 twenty years after they fled the country when the regime fell. Obviously, Nur’s family was a privileged family.

 

According to a 2016 article on Omar, when the Marxist regime was being overtaken the secure compound that the family lived in was under attack by 20 armed men, somehow the family escaped.  It is not clear how.  Either the family had superior armed guards within their compound or they bribed the attackers and sent them on their way (or the story is a complete fabrication).Both Ali and Nur escaped Somalia after the fall of Barre.  Because they were no longer safe there and would have been put on trial and shot if caught, they exited the country. Both ended up in the US and both hid the fact that they worked for a totalitarian regime. Both lied on their Form N-400, Application for Naturalization about their communist background.  (They had to or they wouldn’t be here.)As you can see below:

The Immigration and Nationality Act (I.N.A.) contains a prohibition on naturalization for anyone involved, within the last ten years, with a group that advocates or teaches opposition to all organized government; or involved with the Communist Party or any other totalitarian party of the U.S. or any foreign state; or who advocates world communism or totalitarian dictatorship even without formal group membership. (See I.N.A. Section 313).”

Both Nur and Yusuf should be disqualified from permanent US residency and a revocation of their US citizenship should take place.

Representative Omar reportedly lied after she married her brother in order to assist him in obtaining US citizenship.

This would obviously disqualify Omar and her brother from legal citizenship.

It looks like illegal citizenship is all in the family for Omar and her family.  Like father, like daughter (like son).

Hat Tip Yaacov Apelbaum

end

It is now coming out that the FBI under Comey was leading a case against Trump even though privately he told the President that he was not a target and that is not true. Horowitz can charge Comey criminally for misleading the President.

(zerohedge)

Comey Under DOJ Investigation For Misleading Trump While Targeting Him In FBI Probe

Former FBI Director James Comey has been under investigation for misleading President Trump – telling him in private that he wasn’t the target of an ongoing FBI probe, while refusing to admit to this in public.

According to RealClearInvestigations‘ Paul Sperry, “Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz will file a report in September which contains evidence that Comey was misleading the president” while conducting an active investigation against him.

Even as he repeatedly assured Trump that he was not a target, the former director was secretly trying to build a conspiracy case against the president, while at times acting as an investigative agent. –RCI

According to two US officials familiar with Horowitz’s upcoming report on FBI misconduct, Comey was essentially “running a covert operation” against Trump – which began with a private “defensive briefing” shortly after the inauguration. RCI‘s sources say that Horowitz has pored over text messages between the FBI’s former top-brass and other communications suggesting that Comey was in fact conducting a “counterintelligence assessment” of the president during their January 2017 meeting in New York.

What’s more, Comey had an FBI agent in the White House who reported the activities of Trump and his aides, according to ‘other officials familiar with the matter.’

The agent, Anthony Ferrante, who specialized in cyber crime, left the White House around the same time Comey was fired and soon joined a security consulting firm, where he contracted with BuzzFeed to lead the news site’s efforts to verify the Steele dossier, in connection with a defamation lawsuit. -RCI

According to the report, Horowitz and his team have examined over 1 million documents and conducted over 100 interviews – including sit-downs with Comey and other current and former FBI and DOJ employees. “The period covering Comey’s activities is believed to run from early January 2017 to early May 2017, when Comey was fired and his deputy Andrew McCabe, as the acting FBI director, formally opened full counterintelligence and obstruction investigations of the president.”

McCabe’s deputy, Lisa Page, appeared to dissemble last year when asked in closed-door testimony before the House Judiciary Committee if Comey and other FBI brass discussed opening an obstruction case against Trump prior to his firing in May 2017. Initially, she flatly denied it, swearing: “Obstruction of justice was not a topic of conversation during the time frame you have described.” But then, after conferring with her FBI-assigned lawyer, she announced: “I need to take back my prior statement.” Page later conceded that there could have been at least “discussions about potential criminal activity” involving the president. -RCI

Comey coordination

Sperry notes that Comey wasn’t working in isolation on the Trump effort. In particular, Horowitz has looked at the January 6, 2017 briefing on the infamous ‘Steele Dossier’ – a meeting which was used by BuzzFeed, CNN and others to legitimize reporting on the dossier’s salacious and unsubstantiated claims.

Comey’s meeting with Trump took place one day after the FBI director met in the Oval Office with President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden to discuss how to brief Trump — a meeting attended by National Security Adviser Susan Rice, Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates and National Intelligence Director James Clapper, who would soon go to work for CNN. -RCI

While Comey claims in his book, “A Higher Loyalty” that he didn’t have “a counterintelligence case file open on [Trump],” former federal prosecutor and National Review columnist Andrew McCarthy notes that just because Trump’s name wasn’t on a formal file or surveillance warrant doesn’t mean that he wasn’t under investigation.

“They were hoping to surveil him incidentally, and they were trying to make a case on him,” said McCarthy. “The real reason Comey did not want to repeat publicly the assurances he made to Trump privately is that these assurances were misleading. The FBI strung Trump along, telling him he was not a suspect while structuring the investigation in accordance with the reality that Trump was the main subject.”

What’s more, the FBI couldn’t treat Trump as a suspect – formally, as they didn’t have the legal grounds to do so according to former FBI counterintelligence lawyer Mark Wauck. “They had no probable cause against Trump himself for ‘collusion’ or espionage,” he said, adding “They were scrambling to come up with anything to hang a hat on, but had found nothing.”

What remains unclear is why Comey would take such extraordinary steps against a sitting president. The Mueller report concluded there was no basis for the Trump-Russia collusion conspiracy theories. Comey himself was an early skeptic of the Steele dossier — the opposition research memos paid for by Hillary Clinton’s campaign that were the road map of collusion theories – which he dismissed as “salacious and unverified.” -RCI

According to House Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA), Comey and the rest of the FBI’s top team (including Peter Strzok and Lisa Page) were attempting to “stop” Trump’s presidency for political reasons.

“You have the culmination of the ultimate spying, where you have the FBI director spying on the president, taking notes [and] illegally leaking those notes of classified information” to the MSM, said Nunes in a recent interview.

Read the rest of Sperry’s report here.

end
Schiff is one big clown:  now he says that the Inspector General’s work is tainted ahead of his report.
(zerohedge)

Schiff Says Inspector General’s Work ‘Tainted’ Ahead Of Report On Surveillance Abuses

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) has pivoted from ‘deepfake doom‘ influencing the 2020 election, to downplaying an upcoming watchdog report by the DOJ’s Inspector General due sometime in September.

Speaking at the Aspen Security Conference (where he had a pow-wow with Fusion GPS founder Glenn Simpson last July), Schiff claims that DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz was co-opted into a scheme to protect President Trump by instigating a “fast track” report last year at Trump’s behest, according to the Washington Examiner‘s Daniel Chaitin.

Schiff claimed the president wanted McCabe, who briefly took over as acting FBI director after Trump fired James Comey in May 2017, investigated and his pension taken away and suggested someone such as former Attorney General Rod Rosenstein obliged the president by making a referral.

“The inspector general found that McCabe was untruthful. He may very well have been untruthful,” the California Democrat said, but noted that is not where main his concern lies.

The initiation of the inspector general’s inquiry in McCabe happened, Schiff said, “because the president wanted it politically.” He added, “Once you go down that road, it leads to disaster.” –Washington Examiner

“I have no reason to question the inspector general’s conclusion, but that investigation was put on a fast track. It was separated from a broader inspector general investigation, which is still ongoing,” said Schiff. “Why was that done? It was done so he could be fired to not get a pension. It was done to please the president when the initiation investigation is tainted. So are the results of that investigation.”

McCabe was fired on March 16, 2018 – less than two days before his planned retirement. Had he not been fired, he would have collected his full pension on his 50th birthday.

Of course, a GoFundMe campaign set up in the wake of McCabe’s firing raised $538,000 for his ‘legal-defense fund,’ so we imagine he’ll be OK unless the DOJ decides to pursue charges against the former Deputy Director.

In April 2018, it was revealed that the Justice Department inspector general referred its findings to the U.S. attorney’s office in Washington for possible criminal charges, and his lawyer confirmed as recently as February that McCabe was still under investigation.

McCabe, whom Trump has accused of planning to carry out an “illegal and treasonous” plan to oust him as president, has argued that his firing was an attempt to discredit the FBI and special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. –Washington Examiner

It’s far from over…

While the Mueller investigation is over, Horowitz’s investigation into potential FISA abuse is significant – and Attorney General William Barr is now ‘weapons free’ to work with Horowitz to ‘investigate the investigators.’ According to the Examiner, “The inspector general can recommend prosecutions, and U.S. Attorney John Durham, whom Barr tasked to lead the review, has the ability to convene a grand jury and subpoena people outside of the government. Beyond that, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, has promised a “deep dive” into the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation after Horowitz completes his work.”

Two questions remain; will Schiff continue to push the taint angle, and will AG Barr and Horowitz’s efforts lead to any notable prosecutions before the 2020 election? Or ever?

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The Big Blowhard surfaced a few hours before the NYSE expiry open to issue verbal intervention that induced algos and lemmings to pour into ESUs and then stocks when the NYSE opened.

@realDonaldTrump: Because of the faulty thought process we have going for us at the Federal Reserve, we pay much higher interest rates than countries that are no match for us economically. In other words, our interest costs are much higher than other countries, when they should be lower. Correct!

I like New York Fed President John Williams first statement much better than his second. His first statement is 100% correct in that the Fed “raised” far too fast & too early. Also must stop with the crazy quantitative tightening. We are in a World competition, & winning big but it is no thanks to the Federal Reserve. Had they not acted so fast and “so much,” we would be doing even better than we are doing right now. This is our chance to build unparalleled wealth and success for the U.S., GROWTH, which would greatly reduce % debt. Don’t blow it! Fed: There is almost no inflation!

@zerohedge: 5-10 year inflation expectations spike from 2.3% to 2.6%, because there is no inflation

ESUs surged when they opened on Thursday night due to NY Fed Williams’ advocacy for ZIRP and preventive rate cuts.  They tumbled when the NY Fed tried to walk-back Williams’ panicky dovishness.

ESUs then surged into the Asian close on expiry manipulation.  After a modest rally to start European trading, ESUs dropped 10 handles by 7:00 ET.  Then, Trump induced a 12-hanlde ESU rally that peaked at 3009.75, three minutes before the NYSE open.  ESUs and stocks then sank.  The decline accelerated into the European close.  Old World traders were too long and needed to liquidate for the weekend.

Reuters @jennablan: Exact quote –> “If the ECB is really going to try to re-stimulate the economy in Europe, they are going to have to buy equities,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said on CNBC

@NorthmanTrader: Capitalism has now been reduced to CEOs going on TV and asking central banks to buy stocks directly.

The late morning tumble in ESUs and US equities occurred on expiry without negative news.  The panicky Williams and Clarida advocacy for preemptive rate cuts and ZIRP – or worse – reflexively triggered suspicions on The Street that the Fed knows something awful is about to occur.

@Jkylebass: Credit risk and insolvency risk have just been introduced to china’s interbank market –  Baoshang implosion. Interbank creditors and commercial depositors LOST up to 30% of their money. Any banks but the SOE banks are now vulnerable to collapse and depositor loss

Beijing’s Credibility and the Baoshang Bank Dilemma [A big reason for the Fed’s palpable panic?]

The interbank market tension is weakening Beijing’s overall control over China’s macroeconomy, and despite assurances of stability, we expect additional credit events and financial system turbulence…

China’s financial system has entered a new era in the last two months, as risks have emerged that strike at the heart of economic and financial stability.  For the first time since 1998, a financial institution in China has failed, and markets must price that failure into dealings with other institutions…

The market’s liquidity chain, with money lent from policy banks and large banks to small banks and then to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), remains ruptured, even as the central bank tries to piece it back together… https://rhg.com/research/beijings-credibility-and-the-baoshang-bank-dilemma/

More than 50 companies reportedly pull production out of China due to trade war

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/more-than-50-companies-reportedly-pull-production-out-of-china-due-to-trade-war.html

Derivatives provoked the Crisis of 2008-2009.  Real estate was a problem; Fed largess was a problem; but derivatives were THE problem. Perhaps, the Fed fears that derivatives will soon be a problem again.

Street Trading Costs to Surge as New Rules Hit Derivatives

  • Requirements mean Wall Street has to hold more collateral
  • A Citi model shows prime-broker fees getting 31 times pricier

Firms including Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are warning customers to get ready for new rules that require more collateral for certain trades. The regulations take effect for some clients in Septemberbut the snare gets even tighter in 2020, when more than 1,000 hedge funds, asset managers and insurers will get caught for the first time…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-19/wall-street-trading-costs-to-surge-as-new-rules-hit-derivatives

A Noon Balloon produced a 9-handle ESU rally; but ESUs and stocks sagged when the afternoon arrived.  A rally for the VIX Fix aborted into a decline for the VIX Fix.  Once again, there were too many traders long for a pattern trade.  ESUs made a new session low on the ensuing decline.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced they seized a UK-flagged oil tanker on Friday.  Oil rallied modestly.  Stocks yawned initially.  A few hours later, the IRGC announced it is holding two tankers (2nd is Liberian).  We cannot attribute the latter ESU decline on the second seizure because stocks were already in decline; oil didn’t react to the news of the 2nd capture and gold remained slightly negative.

The afternoon decline ended when DJT did his 2nd verbal intervention with 38 minutes left in the session.

Trump Says Mnuchin Had Very Good Call with China Counterpart – BBG

Trump’s afternoon rally ended 15 minutes before the close.  ESUs and stocks made new lows at the close.

The market action of Friday strongly suggests that Williams, Clarida and the other uber-doves at the Fed have overplayed their verbal intervention schemes.  After Williams’ unfathomably dovish advocacy for preventive rate cuts and ZIRP, The Street fears the Fed is panicking for some reason.  Ergo, Williams and Clarida’s preventive rate cuts/ZIRP gambit backfired spectacularly.

After the close on Friday, Boston Fed President Rosengren, a dove historically, issued a litany of hawkish comments, some directly contradicted NY Fed President Williams’ statements on Thursday.  Perhaps, advance notice of his speech to a select few produced the late tumble on Friday.

  • Recent trade developments have NOT been as disruptive as feared
  • June Employment Report signals continued labor market strength
  • Inflation weakness earlier this year appears to have been temporary
  • US consumer looks “quite strong still”
  • Expects Q2 GDP close to 2%
  • Forecast uncertainty does NOT appear elevated (contradicts Williams)
  • Since June Fed meeting, “The data has gotten somewhat stronger”
  • Reducing rates at current stage of financial cycle could encourage costly behavior
  • I’m not going to make decision until July 30-31 meeting
  • Most of the news we’ve had has been quite good
  • Not on board for a rate cut, “I think we should wait.”

Fed’s Rosengren not on board for rate cut: “I think we should wait.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/19/feds-rosengren-not-on-board-for-rate-cut-i-think-we-should-wait.html

@Hipster_Trader: It will be interesting to see Trump campaigning to the lower and middle class telling them ‘the stock market is at all-time highs and there’s no inflation’as they work multiple jobs to afford basic necessities

Something Just Broke In China As Repo Rate Soars To 1,000% Overnight [Late Friday]

It is unclear what may have snapped, because as of 3:30pm local time, the repo rate had fallen back to 3.1%, which begs the question: did some bank just have a sudden liquidity run/freeze and was willing to pay anything for immediate access to funding? An exchange official had no idea what had caused the massive spike, and an official told Bloomberg that the Shanghai exchange needs to check details of the trade before it can comment…

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-19/something-just-broke-china-repo-rate-soars-1000-overnight

China to scrap foreign ownership caps for life insurers earlier than expected

China will remove foreign ownership caps for life insurers, securities firms and funding houses by 2020, a year earlier than scheduled, the top financial watchdog said on Saturday.  According to a statement from the State Council Financial Stability and Development Commission published by the central bank, China will encourage foreign companies to set up or take stakes in money brokerage firms and allow foreign investors to hold more than 25% stakes in insurance asset management firms…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-finance/china-to-scrap-foreign-ownership-caps-for-life-insurers-earlier-than-expected-idUSKCN1UF06G

Allies Resist US Call For Anti-Iran Naval Force, Fearing It Would Worsen Tensions

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-20/allies-resist-us-call-anti-iran-naval-force-fearing-it-would-worsen-tensions

Why did UK PM May fear and kowtow to these effete Old World quislings?

@Jkylebass on Sunday: It’s rumored this morning that a mini-deal allowing component sales to Huawei might be restarted if the Chinese buy US soybeans. We shouldn’t trade our national security to make a few farmers and fat cat CEOs happy. What a disgrace for Trump if it happens.

Today – The Fed is now in a blackout period ahead of its July 30-31 FOMC meeting.  So, it’s up to Team Trump and BoJ Chief Kuroda, who speaks today at the IMF in DC, to provide the verbal intervention.

Despite Trump on Friday, Williams and Clarida on Thursday, all major indices, ex-the DJTA, closed negative for July expiration.  The high for the expiration week occurred during the NYSE open on Monday.  This is horrible action for expiry week and the start of earnings season.  The disappointing action last week implies traders got too exuberant for the upward season bias or expiry and earnings.

The Williams/Clarida surge on Thursday was the only significant rally of the entire week.

The best chance for a meaningful equity rally should appear in one week when July performance gaming will conflate with hope for a 50bs Fed rate cut on Wednesday, July 31.  If stocks are soft for the week going into Friday, there could be a rally on traders front-running the July 29-31 rally window.

The S&P 500 Index’s daily MACD turned negative on Wednesday.  Barring a sudden spike in an index or stock, this is the first warning of a potential trend reversal.  Bloomberg Trender gives the confirmation signal of the trend.  A close below 2967.83 would generate a daily sell signal for the S&P 500 Index.  Its low on Thursday was 2973.09.  It wouldn’t have taken much selling to generate the sell confirmation.

ESUs opened -4.50 last night on Rosengren’s very hawkish remarks.  However, traders are conditioned to buy on Sunday night for the expected Monday rally; so they are +1.00 at 21:00 ET.  If stocks open soft, there is usually a post-expiry position squaring rally on Monday morning.

Renowned 1st Amendment attorney @RonColeman: This politics stuff is tiring and disheartening. Oh to just give it all up! Problem is, the Bolsheviks won’t. And they’re dead serious…[Who are the Bolsheviks?]

The MSM wants Kamala Harris or Liz Warren to be the Dem Presidential Candidate in 2020.

WaPo’s @mateagold: For years, Bernie Sanders has traveled the country advocating for a $15 per hour minimum wage. His campaign organizers say they aren’t making that much, and they’re using his words to protest for higher wages. Via @WaPoSean

Labor fight roils Bernie Sanders campaign, as [Unionized campaign] workers demand the $15 hourly pay the candidate has proposed for employees nationwide

Sanders has made standing up for workers a central theme of his presidential campaigns — this year marching with McDonald’s employees seeking higher wages, pressing Walmart shareholders to pay workers more and showing solidarity with university personnel on strike…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/labor-fight-roils-bernie-sanders-campaign-as-workers-demand-the-15-hourly-pay-the-candidate-has-proposed-for-employees-nationwide/2019/07/18/3a6df9f4-a966-11e9-9214-246e594de5d5_story.html

Bernie Doesn’t Like Staffers Complaining to Media: Will Cut Working Hours to Pay Equivalent of $15 Per Hour    https://saraacarter.com/bernie-doesnt-want-staffers-complain-to-media-will-cut-working-hours-to-pay-equivalent-of-15-per-hour/

Bernie Sanders proves it is easy to be a socialist or generous with other peoples’ money.

On Saturday, the MSM gleefully trumpeted a racially-charged story, because they thought they could taint Trump with it.  It turned out to be fake news, a fabricated fraud.  The MSM never issued an apology.

OAN’s @Liz_Wheeler: [Georgia state rep] Erica Thomas claims a white man told her to go back where she came from. (Because she’s black.) [For abusing an express checkout lane at grocer] MSM believe her & blame Trump.  The man denies saying go back… oh, & he’s not white. He’s Cuban.  AND HE’S A DEMOCRAT [& anti-Trump activist].  Erica Thomas changes her story, admits he never said it.

Latest Development in Flynn Case Proves Special Counsel Was a Cover for Taking down Trump

The special counsel’s investigation was a sham controlled by the intelligence community…

    The intelligence community did not share the “multiple independent pieces of information” concerning Flynn’s communications with Alptekin with the special counsel’s office… In what appears to be a clear case of revenge, the intelligence community handed off their supposed intel on Flynn, knowing neither Flynn nor Rafiekian could adequately counter it because it was classified.

The intelligence community knew the special counsel probe was a sham designed to take down a president and any other enemies of the deep-state status quo

This pattern has likely repeated itself many times, which would explain why Mueller never addressed whether Russia interfered in the 2016 election by feeding Christopher Steele fake intel for his hit on Trump…Flynn was just a means of getting to Trump. [By Margot Cleveland, Notre Dame Law Prof]

https://thefederalist.com/2019/07/19/latest-development-flynn-case-proves-special-counsel-cover-operation-taking-trump/

On Saturday, a video surfaced that shows Rad 4 Rep Tlaib [State rep then] going berserk at an August 2016 Trump function.  The Secret Service had to remove her.  Will the MSM show the tape? https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1152711615877398528

[Georgetown] Students Cry Racism over Immigration Quote, Then Realize it’s Obama’s

“I thought it was the Trump administration that said something like that,” one student replied…

https://bongino.com/watch-students-cry-racism-over-immigration-quote-then-realize-its-obamas/

Over the weekend, several media stories and tweets appeared that labeled the classic “Don’t Tread on Me” flag from Revolutionary times a sign of “white supremacy”.  You can’t make this up!

‘Don’t Tread On Me’ Shirt Stirs Debate … Revolutionary War Slogan Racist???

https://www.tmz.com/2019/07/17/chris-pratt-dont-tread-on-me-gadsden-flag-shirt-debate-controversy/

The “Don’t Tread on Me” flag is named after its designer, American general and politician Christopher Gadsden.  It appeared in 1775 and was used by the Continental Marines as a motto flag.

Well that is all for today

I will see you TUESDAY night.

 

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