JULY 30/GOLD UP A STRONG $9.00//SILVER ADVANCES ANOTHER 8 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY AND SILVER INVENTORY//OPTIONS EXPIRY TOMORROW/FED RATE DECISION TOMORROW//JOBS REPORT ON FRIDAY//

GOLD:$1429.50  UP $9.00(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

Silver16.54 UP 8 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1430.80

 

silver:  $16.57

options on the London OTC/LBMA expires TOMORROW  which is also when the Fed will supposedly lower its interest rate either .25%or 1/2 point.  We also have non farm payrolls on FRIDAY.  I would not be at all surprised if the Fed decided not the raise rates and that would throw all the markets into a tumultuous chaos.  Generally the Fed gives the market what the traders want.  Let us see what tomorrow brings:
a non rate cut will whack gold and silver southbound as well as equity markets.

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 0/0

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ (0.000 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  963 NOTICES FOR 96300 OZ  (2.9953 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4521 for   22,605,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9573 UP 16 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9595 UP 88

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG  SIZED 2035 CONTRACTS FROM 235,045 UP TO 237,080 WITH THE 4 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 1109 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1109 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1109 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1109 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.71 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.885 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY

 

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT WITH ZERO SUCCESS..AND ZERO SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY:

34,495 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 34,495 CONTRACTS) OR 172.48 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1724 CONTRACTS OR 8.620 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY:  172.48 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 24.64% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1328.60   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2035, WITH THE 4 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1109 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A HUGE  SIZED: 3144 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1107 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2171  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.42 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.186 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 169% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR 0 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.885 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 27,087 CONTRACTS, TO 572,201 DESPITE THE  $1.00 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION IS NOW IN ITS FINAL STAGES  FOR GOLD….AND TODAY’S LIQUIDATION WAS IMMENSE.

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 13,580 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 8623 CONTRACTS, DEC>  4957 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 572,201,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,580 CONTRACTS: 27,087 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 13,580 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 13,507 CONTRACTS OR 1,350,700 OZ OR 35.64 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF $1.00 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT GOOD GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GIGANTIC LOSS IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 35.64  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER. ALMOST ALL OF THE LOSS IN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WAS DUE TO THE FINAL LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS.

 

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE WILL WITNESS THE MORPHING OF OUR SPREADERS OUT OF SILVER AND INTO GOLD AS THE JULY MONTH PROCEEDS INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST. 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 180,266 CONTRACTS OR 18,026,600 oz OR 560.68 TONNES (20 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8901 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 560.68 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 560.68/3550 x 100% TONNES =15.79% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3597.98  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 27,087 DESPITE THE SMALL PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($1.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 13,380 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 13,580 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED LOSS OF 13,580 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

13,580 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 27,087 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 35.64 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE DECREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAVE NOW FINALIZED THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION PHASE  IN GOLD AS THE MONTH OF JULY PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION.

 

 

 

we had:  0 notice(s) filed upon for 0 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY//

 

A NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY:

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2035 CONTRACTS from 235,045 UP TO 237,080 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE FINALIZED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN GOLD AND THEY WILL COMMENCE OPERATIONS IN SILVER ONCE AUGUST IS UNDERWAY.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JULY: 0 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 1109  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1109 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2030  CONTRACTS TO THE 1109 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3,144 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 15.72 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY;  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL;  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY;  WE HAVE 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.885 MILLION OZ STANDING SO FAR.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1109 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.33 POINTS OR 0.39%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 40.09 POINTS OR 0.14%   /The Nikkei closed UP 92.51 POINTS OR 0.43%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .24%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8818 /Oil UP TO 57.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.25 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8818 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8876 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

North Korea/South Korea

Little rocket man infuriates Trump with multiple unidentified projectiles fired

(zerohedge)

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C CHINA

i)Hong Kong citizens are petitioning the uSA to stop selling riot gear to the Hong Kong (Mainland) police who are using tear gas and other human right abuses on its citizens.

(zero hedge)

ii)Almost half of the pig population has been wiped out due to “pig ebola”.  Now they are switching to duck and this has caused many duck farmers to become millionaires overnight as the duck prices rise

(zerohedge)

iii)CHINA/USA

There is no chance for a grade deal.  Again Trump lashes out at China for continuing to move the goal posts\(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK

Deutsche bank makes another major compliance blunder as many fired Deutsche bank employees retained access to corporate email accounts for weeks

(zerohedge)

ii)UK

Nigel  Farage offers his help to Boris Johnson.  If he accepts there is a great chance that they could “smash labour” and walk off with a hard Brexit

a good read…

(zerohedge/Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iii)The pound falters badly and it is heading for its worst showing in 3 years as a “no deal” scenario advances.

(zerohedge)

iv)Tom Luongo agrees with MIsh Shedlock on how Boris Johnson should handle himself during these next 90 days.

Regardless of a deal or a no deal, Brexit will doom the Euro\(Tom Luongo)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

a)Not good: Iran and Russia are planning a joint naval drill in contested Gulf waters

(zerohedge)

b)IRAN/UK

No “quid pro quo: as the UK rejects Iran’s offer to swap each other’s seized tankers  UK demands the rule of law to be abided

(zerohedge)

c)ISRAEL,IRAQ,IRAN/

A first:  Israel penetrates Iraqi airspace and conducts an “anti Iran” escalation by striking pro Iranian targets inside Iraq.

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

We have 3 ticking time bombs here:

  1. the amount of oil floating and oil located on onshore storage in Iran has now exceeded 110 million barrels.
  2.  China has been soaking up Iranian oil and putting it in their strategic reserves rising from 3.6 million barrels to almost 6 million
  3. Iranian exports of oil has dropped to only 417,000 barrels per day from 532,000 in June.

Iran’s economy will now implode exponentially as their only source of income is oil. Trump must have patience when he deals with iran.

(courtesy Irina Slav/OilPrice.com

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)James Turk describes how the USA suspended the debt ceiling for a year and by doing this they have a carte blanche authority to spend like crazy..this is good for gold

(James Turk/Kingworldnews)

ii)Glint introduces a credit card that let you spend gold like mone

(Fox/GATA)

iii)Bubbles everywhere but this time gold fever breaks out despite the fact that the Fed will prepare a rate cut due to lack of global liquidity
(zerohedge/Bloomberg/GATA)

iv)Agnico Eagle is doing fine because we have real low real interest rates(CNBC/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)Demand may be picking up in home sales with the lower interest rates.

(zerohedge)

b)This is the far more important of the home data reports:  The Case Shiller home price appreciation has slowed for the 14th consecutive month. Price appreciation allows consumers to spend as they borrow on the gain intheir home\(Case Shiller/zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)Capital One hacked

(zerohedge)

ii)No doubt about it! If the Fed cuts rates tomorrow, it will surely be an admission that a recession is upon us. The reason for the rate cut is due to a global liquidity problem

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)This is unconstitutional but California passes a law banning Trump from the ballot unless he releases his tax returns. The Constitution is very clear who can quality to run for President and that a state cannot add on to any requirement to run

(zerohedge)

b)Another victim, Jennifer Araoz accuses Epstein of raping her when she was 15.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 27,087 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 572,201 DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN OF $1.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 13,580 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 8623 CONTRACTS: DEC: 4957   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  13,580 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 13,507 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 13,580 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A HUMONGOUS SIZED 27,087 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. WE HAVE REACHED THE CONCLUSION  OF OUR SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION.

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  13,507 CONTRACTS OR 1,350,700 OZ OR 35.64 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON  active contract month of JULY and here the open interest stands at 0 CONTRACTS as we LOST 5 contracts.  We had 5 notices filed yesterday so we gained 0 contracts or 00 oz of gold that will stand for delivery.

 

The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI FELL by a 55,366 contracts DOWN to 40,213. The next non active month is September and here the OI rose by 448 contracts up to 3414.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI rose by 1455 contracts up to 41,687. There is one day left before first day notice but the amount that will stand will probably be very low for the simple reason is that there is hardly any gold present at the comex.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  0 OZ. (0.00 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2035 CONTRACTS FROM 235,045 UP TO 237,080 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.  HERE WE HAVE 56 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A GAIN OF 34 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 22 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 56 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 280,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. AFTER JULY WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST AND HERE WE LOST 90 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1005.  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 478 CONTRACTS UP TO 158,008 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for 00 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 322,922  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  418,029  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JULY/GOLD

JULY 30/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
32.15 oz
Manfra
1 kilobar
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

2799.90 oz

HSBC

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 500 OZ
(0.0155 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(00 oz)
0.0000 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
963 notices
96300 OZ
2.9953 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into HSBC: 2799.90  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 201.07  oz

 

For the past two years, we have witnessed very little gold enter the comex:

Today:   a tiny amount  arrived  

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Manfra:  32.15 oz is withdrawn

1 kilobar

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 32.15   oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JULY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (963) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY. (0 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 96,300 OZ OR 2.933 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JULY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (963 x 100 oz)  + (0)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 96,300 oz standing OR 2.933 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JULY.

We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.131 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 2.9953  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  325,725.703 oz or  10.131 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,750,261.629 oz 241.06 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 33 MONTHS 115 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

 

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
JULY 30 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 24,925.730 oz
CNT
Delaware
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
601,996.517 oz
CNT
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
56 contracts
 280,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4521 contracts

22,605,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT:  600,996.517 oz

iii) Into Delaware: 1000.000 oz ?????

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  601,996.517  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  10,027.110 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 4942.42 oz

iii) out of HSBC: 9,956.200  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 24,925.730  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of Brinks: 24,878.970 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account of Brinks and this landed into the customer account of Brinks

and this is probably a settlement.

 

total dealer silver:  93.817 million

total dealer + customer silver:  309.325 million oz

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4521 x 5,000 oz = 22,605,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY. (56) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 4521 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (56) number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 22,885,000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.

WE GAINED 56 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 280,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS. 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 22 notice(s) filed for 110,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  26,134 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 67,377 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 67,377 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 336 million  OZ 48.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.18.% ((JULY 30/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.17% to NAV (JULY 30/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.18%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.28 TRADING 13.82/DISCOUNT 3.21

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.50: A HUGE INVENTORY WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LEAVES THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 818.14 TONNES

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: ANOTHER 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD REMOVED AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD AT THE COMEX/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.61 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

 

 

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JULY 30/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 824.89 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 631 TRADING DAYS: 109.85 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 531 TRADING DAYS: A NET 55.83 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 26.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:  A HUGE 1.03 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER LEAVES THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 357.183 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.575 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019:

 

Inventory 356.715 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.20/ and libor 6 month duration 2.24

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .04

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.20%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.19

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Surges To £1,175/oz, Near Record £1,179/oz In GBP, As Sterling Falls Sharply

Gold prices have surged in British pounds today as sterling fell sharply on
concerns that Boris Johnson may lead the UK and EU into a “hard Brexit.”

Gold surged to 1,175/oz and nearly touched the all time record nominal high of £1,179/oz as the pound fell on international markets.

Gold gained nearly 0.5% in dollars ahead of the meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Due to the slowing U.S. and global economy, they are expected to signal how big an interest rate cut the world’s biggest economy might take.

Irish bonds saw selling, as did global stock markets before what is expected to be the first cut in U.S. rates since the financial crisis.

Gold has gained in all currencies today but especially in the embattled British pound. It is not just the ‘no deal’ Brexit that is leading to sharp falls in the pound. Trade wars, falling interest rates in the UK and globally, the slowing London and UK property market and the slowing UK and global economy are all contributing to the fall in sterling.

Gold in GBP – Monthly, 10 Year – GoldCore.com

As are the very large UK deficits and the completely unsustainable debt position. While all the focus is on Brexit, the UK faces the very real risk of a debt and currency crisis.

Britain has over $8 trillion in external debt and is the 2nd largest debtor in the world after the U.S.

True UK government debt exceeds £5 trillion as pension liabilities are not counted in the official numbers. Total UK debt (government, private, business & bank debt) as a percent of GDP is over 500% which in itself creates the risk of a currency crisis.

Gold Price Performance GBP

Gold Prices via LBMA (AM/ PM Fix – USD, GBP & EUR)

26-Jul-19 1418.25 1420.40, 1140.27 1144.70 & 1273.02 1275.95
25-Jul-19 1426.35 1416.10, 1143.08 1132.88 & 1281.86 1265.85
24-Jul-19 1425.55 1426.95, 1142.29 1142.70 & 1279.86 1279.69
23-Jul-19 1417.55 1425.55, 1140.42 1145.29 & 1268.14 1277.01
22-Jul-19 1424.45 1427.75, 1142.69 1143.63 & 1270.04 1272.13
19-Jul-19 1437.05 1439.70, 1148.06 1148.88 & 1278.11 1281.48
18-Jul-19 1420.90 1417.45, 1139.70 1135.94 & 1264.74 1263.51
17-Jul-19 1400.80 1410.35, 1129.61 1135.61 & 1249.09 1256.90
16-Jul-19 1416.10 1409.85, 1136.85 1134.79 & 1260.05 1256.88

News

Pound Suffers Further Slide After Boris Johnson Takes Brexit Hard Line

UK PM Johnson’s No-deal Brexit Gamble Hammers Sterling

Weak Pound: More to Falling Sterling Than No-deal Brexit Fears

Gold Ends Marginally Higher Ahead of Kickoff of Fed Policy Gathering

Gold Firms on Fed Rate-cut Bets; Focus on Future Guidance

Commentary

GBP: The Sterling Meltdown – ING

Gold Fever Breaks Out in New ‘Bubble Game’ as Fed Preps a Cut 

A Fed Interest Rate Cut is in the Bag. What Then?  

Why We Should Fear Easy Money

Trump Debt Plan Is Crazy as Hell: Stockman – Bloomberg

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Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

END

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

James Turk describes how the USA suspended the debt ceiling for a year and by doing this they have a carte blanche authority to spend like crazy..this is good for gold

(James Turk/Kingworldnews)

James Turk at KWN: Debt limit isn’t raised — it’s waived for a year

 Section: 

1:35p ET Monday, July 29, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News today that Congress did not just raise the U.S. government debt ceiling the other day but removed it entirely for a year. That is, Turk says, until next July there is no statutory limit on what the U.S. government can borrow and spend, even as growth in government debt is no longer stimulating the economy. Turk says that what von Mises called the “crack-up boom” — hyperinflation — may be near.

Turk’s comments are posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-historic-news-just-announced-that-w…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Glint introduces a credit card that let you spend gold like mone

(Fox/GATA)

Glint says its credit card lets you spend gold like money

 Section: 

By James Leggate
Fox Business, New York
Monday, July 29, 2019

A new debit card allows users to spend their gold like dollars.

U.K. fintech company Glint launched its debit card in the U.S. today. It can be used anywhere a Mastercard is accepted. Glint’s card and app make gold “an alternative global currency,” according to the company.

… 

Our mission is to bring a reliable gold currency to the fingertips of everyone in the world,” said Jason Cozens, founder and CEO of Glint. “We are excited to introduce Glint to the U.S. market and continue our steady growth towards democratizing gold.”By backing up users’ assets with physical gold, Glint offers multi-currency accounts, though U.S. customers will have access only to gold and dollar wallets for now. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/gold-money-glint-debit-card

* * *

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Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

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* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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http://www.gata.org/node/16

END
Bubbles everywhere but this time gold fever breaks out despite the fact that the Fed will prepare a rate cut due to lack of global liquidity
(zerohedge/Bloomberg/GATA)

Gold fever breaks out in new ‘bubble game’ as Fed prepares a rate cut

 Section: 

By Ksenia Galouchko
Bloomberg News
Monday, July 39, 2019

A top-ranked strategist at Societe Generale has a plan for clients fretting that a fresh wave of monetary easing will fan a bubble across assets.

Ride the bull until 2020 — when a U.S. recession and a debased dollar will make gold the perfect doomsday hedge, says Alain Bokobza. It’s the latest warning for investors betting that the Federal Reserve will help extend the business cycle with stimulus this week, and a sign of how gold fever is breaking out from London to New York.

…Gold is the perfect response if you’re entering the bubble game,” the head of global asset allocation said in an interview in London. “Every time you have such a situation, gold has soared,” said Bokobza. His team ranks first among multi-asset strategists in the 2019 Extel survey.

Worrywarts have long clung to bullion as the ultimate store of value in a low-rate world, but the sentiment is growing as the global pile of negative-yielding debt sits near $14 trillion and central banks shift to dovish mode. Exchange-traded funds holding precious metals have taken in around $4 billion this year, while hedge fund Crescat Capital is starting a long-only strategy focused on mining stocks. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-29/as-fed-preps-a-cut-go…

END

Agnico Eagle is doing fine because we have real low real interest rates

(CNBC/GATA)

Agnico Eagle’s Boyd: Gold blossoms under low real interest rates

 Section: 

By Tyler Clifford
CNBC, New York
Monday, July 29, 2019

Gold is trading at levels it has not seen in years and could be on its way to reaching all-time highs in the near future, the CEO of a Canadian miner told CNBC today.

Sean Boyd, the vice chairman and CEO of Agnico Eagle Mines, said the current state of interest and inflation rates creates a perfect environment for the industry. The price of gold broke above the $1,400 level last month for the first time since 2013 and is currently hovering in the $1,420 range.

… 

We’re in a period now where gold blossoms — when you have low real interest rates … gold does well,” Boyd said in an interview with Jim Cramer of “Mad Money.”

“And then the inability of the industry to respond to a higher gold price is, I think, the key to get it going forward.”

Agnico Eagle’s share price, too, has reached its highest level in recent years. The stock, which bottomed out at about $32 in September, rose more than 1% to $71.54 today. Gold traded below $1,200 in September, while the market was reaching record highs before a brutal sell-off kicked in. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/29/agnico-eagle-mines-ceo-gold-blossoms-in-…

END

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8818/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8876   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 11.33 POINTS OR 0.39%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 40/09 POINTS OR 0.24%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 92.51 POINTS OR 0.43%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.08/Euro RISES TO 1.1149

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.27 and Brent: 64.25

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.40%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.63% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.40%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.03: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.06

3k Gold at $1428.10 silver at: 16.46   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 8/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.35

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.51 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9897 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1036 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.40%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.05% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.57%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.5689..

Global Stocks Slide As Traders Await Fed’s Rate Cut; Pound Crash Accelerates

One day before the Fed’s 25bps rate cut, traders are suddenly getting cold feet and global stocks are a (shallow) sea of red, with US equity futures and European markets all sliding, weighed down by corporate results and economic data while awaiting news from the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks even as Trump launches another anti-China tirade on twitter.

Meanwhile, Europe’s markets suffered a stormy start as the pound followed its worst day of the year with another 0.5% swoon against all the major currencies. A blizzard of fiery talk on Monday that included the new UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson calling his predecessor’s Brexit plans dead and its new foreign minister labeling the European Union “stubborn” kept the slide intact. Sterling fell as far as $1.2120, which was its lowest against the dollar since March 2017, and to 91.85 pence per euro, the weakest since September 2017.

GBP

Options markets were pointing to more pain too. Three-month implied volatility, a contract that expires just before the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline, jumped to over 11 vols, the highest since before March 29, the original date for Britain to leave the European Union.

“The pound is in a very precarious state, it is as simple as that,” said TD Securities’ European head of currency strategy Ned Rumpeltin. “We are now in a different regime,” he said, referring to Johnson’s explicit agenda of taking Britain out of the EU, whether or not transitional trading agreements are in place.

US equity futures, down -0.3% and below yesterday’s lows, were hit following a plunge in the stock of Beyond Meat which used its surprise outlook boost to surprise markets with a 3.25 million share offering, while traders looked for earnings reports due from industry leaders including Procter & Gamble, Pfizer and Mastercard. Disappointing forecasts from Reckitt Benckiser and Bayer weighed on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, while grim forecasts from German chemicals and drugs giant Bayer and airline Lufthansa soured sentiment, although the weakness of the pound kept London’s blue-chip index just about out of the red. The EuroStoxx 50 dropped -0.9%, pushing lower through the European morning as disappointing earnings weighed on European stocks. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index outperformed as the pound plunged and strong earnings boosted shares of BP.

With concerns about global growth still bubbling among investors, a GfK survey also showed German consumer morale worsening for the third month in a row heading into August as trade disputes bit in Europe’s biggest exporter.

“Most markets are down this morning,” said Simona Gambarini, a markets economist at Capital Economics. “The S&P closed lower yesterday. We have a few data releases regarding the eurozone that could push equity prices down but I think everyone is waiting for the Fed meeting.”

Earlier, stocks were higher across Asia, rising in Japan, South Korea and China, and closed at a record in Australia, while Hong Kong stocks also rose despite continuing protests in the city. Investors awaited headlines from U.S.-China trade talks and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this week. The region’s benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3%, led by Indonesia and Japan stocks. The Jakarta Stock Price Index jumped as much as 1.2% after the central bank said there is room for accommodative policy in future. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.4%, showing limited reaction to the Bank of Japan’s widely anticipated decision to stand pat on monetary policy. Shanghai rose 0.3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.2%.  Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rebounded on a rally in Chinese insurance companies. India’s Sensex Index fell 0.2% in its second day of decline.

As expected, the BOJ did nothing, but added that it would ease policy again “without hesitation” if the economy loses momentum for achieving the central bank’s 2% inflation target. Specifically, Kuroda kept all monetary policy settings unchanged as expected with NIRP held at -0.1% and 10yr JGB yield target at around 0% with the decision made by vote of 7-2 in which Kataoka and Harada dissented again. BoJ also maintained its forward guidance on keeping rates at extremely low rates at least through to Spring 2020 and added that it will ease without hesitation if momentum to reaching the price goal is lost, while it reduced FY19/20 Real GDP forecast to 0.7% from 0.8% and cut FY19/20 Core CPI forecast to 1.0% from 1.1%.

Also drawing some attention were U.S.-China trade negotiations which begin in Shanghai on Tuesday, although expectations for progress during the two-day meeting are low with the markets hoping the two sides can at least detail commitments for “goodwill” gestures.

In rates, Irish government bond yield spreads over Germany hit their widest levels in over a month at 24 basis points, on worries about the damage a no-deal Brexit would do to Ireland’s economy. Other euro zone government bond yields were holding near recent lows ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting which is expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday and potentially signal more on the way. Germany’s 10-year government bond yield was hovering near the minus 0.40% mark. In the US, Treasury yields edged lower and the dollar touched its highest in almost two months.

In FX, as noted above, the slump in the pound dominated the overnight trading session as the currency headed for its biggest four-day drop since 2016. Besides the pound’s slow motion crash, the Euro drifted and core euro-zone bonds were steady as the latest data added to the gloomy outlook for the region’s economy. The yen gained as the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged. Oil extended gains after rising the most in three weeks on Monday.

In commodities, crude oil extended the previous day’s gains, with the Fed’s expected easing fueling optimism that it would boost the economy and fuel demand in the world’s biggest oil consumer. U.S. crude futures were up 0.65% at $57.24 per barrel and Brent crude added 0.6% to $64.09. Gold was down 0.1% at $1,425 per ounce.

Expected data include personal income and spending, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Altria, Conoco, Mastercard, Merck & Co., Amgen, Apple, and Mondelez are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,017.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 388.18
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 159.77
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 524.10
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 21,709.31
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,575.58
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 28,146.50
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,952.34
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 37,752.99
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,845.08
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,038.68
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to -0.399%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1143
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 1.221%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.355%
  • Brent futures up 0.9% to $64.27/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,428.03
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 98.12

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson will not start talks with European Union leaders over Brexit unless they first agree to his demand to reopen the divorce deal they struck with his predecessor, Theresa May, his office warned. So far, EU leaders have refused. U.K. will push EU to negotiate a new Brexit deal within weeks
  • The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged while trimming its inflation forecasts, taking a wait-and-see stance ahead of an expected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve tomorrow.
  • French economic growth unexpectedly slowed, adding to risks for a euro area already shaken by a manufacturing slump and frailties in its largest economy, Germany.
  • The U.S. Treasury Department said it plans to borrow more than twice as much as previously anticipated in the third quarter, assuming lawmakers free up spending by lifting the debt ceiling
  • Mexico’s interest rates are too high for a slowing economy, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said in an interview, though he added that he respects the central bank’s freedom to set them independently
  • Japan’s factory output suffered its second-largest drop in the last five years in June as trade tensions and a slowdown in the global economy dragged exports lower for a seventh straight month
  • Oil extended gains on speculation that demand will get a boost from a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while investors await news from the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks
  • Citigroup Inc. is preparing to cut hundreds of jobs in its trading division — stark new evidence that an industry wide slump in revenue this year may be more permanent than the tweets and policy moves rattling clients

Asian equity indices shrugged off the lacklustre lead from their global peers and traded higher across the board, but with gains mostly modest as there was not much in terms of fresh catalysts and as markets look ahead to the looming risk events. ASX 200 (+0.3%) gained from the open with continued strength in telecoms leading the index to unprecedented highs, while the Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) ignored disappointing Industrial Production data and what has so far been a predominantly softer earnings season, with early outperformance fuelled by recent currency weakness although BoJ disappointment later saw some of the gains pared. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) conformed to the mild optimism despite further liquidity inaction by the PBoC as focus turned to the resumption of US-China trade talks in Shanghai today. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded sideways with price action indecisive heading into today’s BoJ policy conclusion where the central bank kept policy settings unchanged as expected but also maintained its forward guidance which disappointed some outside calls for a potential dovish tweak.

Top Asian News

  • BOJ Stands Pat and Trims Inflation Outlook Ahead of Fed Meeting
  • Japan’s Industrial Output Falls More Than Expected in June
  • Singapore Property Developer Top Global Slumps After Acquisition
  • Indonesia’s FSA Orders Duniatex to Restructure, Pay Off Debt

European equities are firmly in negative territory this morning [Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0%]; however, once again the FTSE 100 (U/C) is the notable outperformer continuing to be buoyed by the weak sterling performance and also benefitting from BP (+2.6%) post earnings where adj. net beat on Exp. and Co. stated that at the mid-point of their 5yr plan they are on target. Unsurprisingly, sectors are all in the red with Energy names outperforming on the aforementioned BP release, with the Co. compromising around 15% of the sector. Other notable movers include Centrica (-13.0%) at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 as both revenue and adj. operating profit missed on the prior figures, though the Co. did caveat this by stating they expect earnings to be weighted towards H2. Separately, Bayer (-3.9%) are also in the red after Q2 revenue missed on Exp. and even though the Co. confirmed outlook this did come with a warning that the outlook is becoming increasingly ambitious for them to achieve. Finally, both Fresenius SE (-2.8%) and Fresenius Medical Care (-6.3%) are under-pressure post earnings with focus being on the Co. anticipating net income growth as flat and as some metrics came in softer than their priors for Q2 respectively.

Top European News

  • ABB Is Said to Pick Sandvik CEO as Front-Runner for Top Job
  • BP Bucks Trend of Big Oil Earnings Misses as Output Rises
  • Centrica CEO to Step Down After First Dividend Cut Since 2015
  • Delivery Hero Pours Cold Water on Just Eat Counter-Bid Talk

In FX, the broad Dollar and Index remains cautious as US-China talks are underway and as participants gear up for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, with money markets currently pricing in a 78% chance of a 25bps cut and 22% for a 50bps cut to the Fed Fund Rate. DXY had earlier eclipsed yesterday’s high (98.17), ahead of the YTD peak at 98.37. Looking ahead on the docket, US PCE could influence a short-term move in the Buck, although sentiment for the currency is largely constrained to trade talks in Shanghai and positioning ahead of the Fed.

  • GBP – More torment for the Pound as further no-deal woes engulf investor sentiment with the latest reports from the Telegraph further solidifying PM Johnson’s hard-line stance. Cable downside was exacerbated during Asia-Pac hours in which the pair retreated below the 1.2200 level for the first time since March 2017 to a current intraday low of 1.2121 (vs. 1.2217 at the open), albeit the pair saw a small bounce in recent trade as the Buck drifted off highs and potentially on some short covering. To the downside, technicians will be eyeing the following levels for support: 1.2110 (March 17 low), 1.2085 (Jan 17 low), 1.2000 (psychological) and 1.1841 (Flash crash low).
  • JPY – Firmer on the day in the aftermath of the BoJ Policy Decision in which the Central Bank failed to satisfy some dovish calls by holding its NIRP at -10bps and its 10yr JGB yield target at around 0% whilst maintaining its forward guidance. The vote split also showed no change from the prior meeting (7-2) despite the recent sources suggesting divergence between board members on the timing of easing. USD/JPY currently hovers closer to the bottom of its 108.50-94 range ahead of tis 50 DMA at 108.35. Moreover, today’s NY cut sees 764mln expiring at strike 108.15-25 and around 860mln at 108.00.
  • EUR, AUD, NZD – All largely unchanged intraday and mostly moving at the whim of the Buck, albeit the EUR is again somewhat cushioned by its EUR/GBP cross. EUR/USD remains just under the 1.1150 level and was overall little impacted by slightly cooler Y/Y German state CPIs, which is in-fitting with the National forecast due to be release at 1300BST. Elsewhere, the Antipodeans await developments from US-Sino talks with little to report on a domestic front. AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain within tight ranges (0.6887-6907 and 0.6619-34 respectively), with the latter hovering around its 50DMA (0.6624).

In commodities, Brent and WTI prices are firmer this morning, and currently trade just below the USD 64.50/bbl and USD 57.50/bbl marks respectively. This positivity is in-spite of a quiet session of newsflow for the complex, though today does see the resumption of US-China trade talks which alongside the ongoing geopolitical tension. Additionally, markets are likely looking ahead to today’s API release in which participants expect a headline crude draw of 2.5mln. Elsewhere, gold is flat in a tight range as the yellow metal awaits this week’s main events. Finally, copper trades lacklustre and is back below 2.7/lb amid cautious ahead of trade developments.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%; Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
    • Real Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
    • PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%l PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 1.5%
    • PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 1.7%, prior 1.6%
  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.2%, prior 0.0%; S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 2.4%, prior 2.54%
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.1%; Pending Home Sales NSA YoY, est. 0.7%, prior -0.8%
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 125, prior 121.5; Present Situation, prior 162.6; Expectations, prior 94.1

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday I mentioned how we’ve all been getting it wrong in discouraging children not to play video games all day as it’s becoming clear that the e-sports revolution is the path to untold riches after the weekend’s Fortnite World Cup. Well here in the UK we saw an alternative route to success last night as the final of “Love Island” concluded with the winners expected to earn a few million each in endorsements etc. I’ve never watched it but I read over the weekend that a hard Brexit may mean problems for next year’s show given it’s hosted in the EU. If there was a second referendum this is the sort of news I’d have to consider when allocating my vote!!

The main event today is the resumption of trade talks between the US and China, which are taking place in Shanghai. So watch for any headlines. To recap where we are, following the escalation in May where the US imposed higher tariffs on China and President Trump accused China of trying to renegotiate the agreement at the last minute, the US and China reached a truce and agreed to resume talks last month at the G20 meeting in Osaka. At the meeting, President Trump opted not to put tariffs on the remaining $300bn of Chinese imports which had been threatened, and also offered a concession on Huawei, while China agreed to buy more products from the US. Little has been heard since though on how things are progressing. The longer things remain uncertain the more risks there are to the global economy. This is one of the biggest dilemmas for the FOMC as they today start their 2-day meeting ahead of tomorrow’s announcement.

US markets were in wait-and-see mode yesterday ahead of tomorrow’s main planned event of the summer, with S&P 500 trading volumes around -11% lower than usual. The index ultimately ended -0.17% lower, while the NASDAQ dropped -0.44%. The DOW (+0.11%) outperformed, the first time in over a month that it gained in the same session when the S&P 500 fell. Company-specific news drove the biggest moves, with drug maker Mylan up +12.57% after it announced plans to merge with Pfizer (-3.81%). Pfizer will spin off a few of its popular brands into a new company along with Mylan, and its shareholders will receive 57% of the new company. Mylan owners will get 43% of the new combined firm. The utilities (+0.49%) and real estate (+0.46%) sectors led sector gains as bond yields slid, with 10-year treasury yields -1.4bps. Two-year yields traded sideways, taking the 2y10y curve -1.0bps flatter.

European markets were also in that same holding pattern with the STOXX 600 up +0.03% as the UK led advances on a weaker currency, up +1.82%, which was the biggest gain for the index since last August. The London Stock Exchange Group surged by +15.34% as investors reacted to the news of its $27bn acquisition of Refinitiv. Meanwhile the DAX, CAC 40 and the FTSE MIB slid a bit, by -0.02%, -0.16%, and -0.59% respectively. Bond yields fell, with ten-year bunds -1.5bps, ten-year French debt -1.7bps, and ten-year gilts falling –3.3bps to yield their lowest since 2016. European HY credit spreads tightened -1.4bps and are now at their narrowest level in almost a full year. There was little in the way of data to impact proceedings, although data ahead of this Thursday’s Bank of England meeting showed UK consumer credit growth continued to slow, falling to 5.5% yoy in June, the lowest since April 2014. Mortgage approvals were stronger than expected however, at 66.4k in June (vs. 65.8k expected).

Sticking with the UK, Sterling weakened by -1.31% against the dollar, its steepest drop since last November, and has continued to slide (-0.52%) this morning with heavier volumes than normal in Asia trading hours. It is currently trading at 1.2157, the lowest level since February 2017, and just a percent away from hitting a 34-year low. With 93 days until the UK’s scheduled departure from the EU on October 31, and with Johnson’s policy of leaving that day “no ifs or buts”, fears of a no-deal outcome are increasingly being reflected in the currency.

Turning to Asia, the BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged at their meeting overnight maintaining the settings on its yield curve-control program and asset purchases while also keeping its interest rate pledge the same as before. The accompanying statement added a new sentence that, “In particular, in a situation where downside risks to economic activity and prices, mainly regarding developments in overseas economies, are significant, the Bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if there is a greater possibility that the momentum towards achieving the price stability target will be lost.”

We are slowly moving that way as the BoJ revised down both the core inflation and growth forecasts for 2019 by one-tenth to +1.0% and +0.7%, respectively. The Japanese yen is trading up (+0.14%) this morning while yields on 10yr JGBs are unchanged at -0.156%. Elsewhere, Japan’s June industrial production came in at -3.6% mom (vs. +2.0% mom last month), the biggest drop since January 2017 and was dragged down by the decline in output of autos and flat panels.

Asian equity markets are largely trading higher with the Nikkei (+0.27%), Hang Seng (+0.34%), Shanghai Comp (+0.65%) and Kospi (+0.56%) all advancing. However, the Nikkei has pared back gains of around +0.8% earlier in the session, prior to the BoJ announcement. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.12%.

In other overnight news, USTR Robert Lighthizer said that the US has a growing trade shortfall with Vietnam, and the government “has been clear with Vietnam that it has to take action to reduce the unsustainable trade deficit,” in written responses to the US Senate Finance Committee while adding that, Vietnam should take action including “expanding its imports of goods from the United States and by resolving market access restrictions related to goods, services, agricultural products, and intellectual property.” In May, the US Treasury had added Vietnam to a watch list of countries being monitored for possible currency manipulation with President Trump calling the country out as “almost the single-worst abuser of everybody” when asked if he wanted to impose tariffs on the nation.

Bloomberg reported yesterday that in the race to succeed Christine Lagarde as Managing Director of the IMF, the EU had narrowed its shortlist down to 3, although the French finance ministry denied this. The candidates mentioned are Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the former Eurogroup chair and Dutch finance minister; Olli Rehn, the central bank governor of Finland; and Kristalina Georgieva, the chief executive of the World Bank. Although of course it’s not solely up to the EU who gets the position, the IMF has always been run by a European since its formation, while the World Bank has always been headed by an American. It should also be noted that for Georgieva to get the position, the IMF would need to change its age-limit rules, as currently the Managing Director has to be under 65 years old when they’re appointed. Nominations for the position opened yesterday and close on September 6, and the IMF Executive Board are aiming to conclude the process by October 4.

As for US politics, the second Democratic party presidential debates are due tonight, with front-runners Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren due to take the stage with 8 other candidates. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will join the second group of candidates tomorrow night. Ahead of the debate, Warren released the details of her trade plan, which includes provisions to bar preferential trade with countries that manipulate their currencies, violate human rights, or fail to protect labour standards. Such measures could ensnare China and other current US trading partners, illustrating that trade confrontation is, at least for now, a bipartisan initiative.

In terms of rounding out yesterday’s data before we move to the day ahead, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey came in slightly below expectations at -6.3 in July (vs. -6.0 expected), although this was a rebound from the previous month’s 3-year low of -12.1. Combining this print with other regional Fed surveys from New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond, results in an ISM estimate of 51.6, slightly below last month’s reading of 51.7, which would be the lowest since September 2016 but wouldn’t sink into contractionary territory. The ISM is due on Thursday.

In terms of the day ahead, in addition to the resumption of US-China talks, the FOMC will begin their much-anticipated 2-day meeting, although the decision won’t of course be announced until tomorrow. In terms of data, from the US we have personal income and spending releases for June, as well as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for July. Meanwhile in Europe, we’ve got the first look at Q2 GDP from France, Eurozone consumer confidence figures, and from Germany we have CPI data for July, and the GfK consumer confidence reading. There are also a number of earnings highlights including Apple, BP, Procter & Gamble, Mastercard and Pfizer, while it’s the first of two nights of Democratic primary debates.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.33 POINTS OR 0.39%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 40.09 POINTS OR 0.14%   /The Nikkei closed UP 92.51 POINTS OR 0.43%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .24%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8818 /Oil UP TO 57.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.25 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8818 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8876 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

North Korea/South Korea

Little rocket man infuriates Trump with multiple unidentified projectiles fired

(zerohedge)

North Korea Fired “Multiple Unidentified Projectiles”, South Korean Media Warns

For the second time in a week, North Korea has seemingly snubbed President Trump by test-firing multiple unidentified projectiles this morning.

South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports:

Yonhap News Agency

@YonhapNews

(URGENT) N. Korea fired multiple unidentified projectiles early Wednesday: JCS http://yna.kr/AEN20190731000400325 

(URGENT) N. Korea fired multiple unidentified projectiles early Wednesday: JCS | Yonhap News Agency

 

Developing…

end

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Hong Kong citizens are petitioning the uSA to stop selling riot gear to the Hong Kong (Mainland) police who are using tear gas and other human right abuses on its citizens.

 

(zero hedge)

As Protests Intensify, Activist Leader Urges U.S. To Stop Selling Riot Gear To Hong Kong Police

A student activist who rose to fame during Hong Kong’s Umbrella movement 5 years ago says that the U.S. government should suspend its sales of riot gear to the city to prevent human rights abuses. Joshua Wong made the comments in a Tweet on Monday, as weeks long protests in Hong Kong intensify, according to Bloomberg.

He attached photos to his Tweet on Monday showing riot police shooting at protesters and close ups of a tear gas canister that was manufactured in Homer City, Pennsylvania by NonLethal Technologies, Inc. He also tweeted out photos of rubber-bullet shells made by ALS, which is a subsidiary of Pacem Defense Co., based in Florida.

Joshua Wong 黃之鋒

@joshuawongcf

HK Riot Police fired bullet & tear gas directly at persons and indoor that made in US. I am calling US Gov for the suspension of crowd control equipment exports to HK, prevent human rights abuses.

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/petition-calling-suspension-crowd-control-equipment-exports-hong-kong-prevent-human-rights-abuses?fbclid=IwAR0Hjvc9ymauD2VYxzJhxcDIV9qnWhqnsWr_H6FSM5PC9I-t2987Nr3yIuA 

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

“HK Riot Police fired bullet & tear gas directly at persons and indoor that made in US. I am calling US Gov for the suspension of crowd control equipment exports to HK, prevent human rights abuses,” he wrote.

Later in the day he also tweeted out gruesome injuries sustained by protesters, allegedly from “tear gas made in U.S. unleashed by HK riot police”.

Joshua Wong 黃之鋒

@joshuawongcf

Upgraded tear gas made in US unleashed by HK riot police yesterday. It caused protester injured seriously.
(https://www.facebook.com/mingtaimortuary2/posts/2366617100094598 )

[Activist Calls on U.S. to Stop Selling Tear Gas to Hong Kong by White House Petition: https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/petition-calling-suspension-crowd-control-equipment-exports-hong-kong-prevent-human-rights-abuses?fbclid=IwAR0Hjvc9ymauD2VYxzJhxcDIV9qnWhqnsWr_H6FSM5PC9I-t2987Nr3yIuA ]

View image on Twitter

He said in an interview that he tweeted the photos not specifically to target the two companies, but because it appeared that they were being used in Hong Kong for the first time last weekend.

Wong said: “One year ago, who would have imagined the police in Hong Kong would attack ordinary citizens with such extreme force? Governments and companies should not allow the police to use their equipment to harm ordinary citizens and peaceful protesters.”

The attention from the prominent activist could put pressure on the U.S. businesses as the protests move into their ninth straight weekend. Injuries have been reported among demonstrators and police. Other companies, like Cartier-owner Richemont and Television Broadcasts Ltd. have also been subject to fallout from the unrest in Hong Kong, which has cause some store closures and put companies under the microscope for criticism on social media.

Wong’s tweet also included a link to a petition he created directed at the White House for the same purpose. As of writing, the petition had over 75,000 signatures of the 100,000 necessary to get a response from the White House. 

end
Almost half of the pig population has been wiped out due to “pig ebola”.  Now they are switching to duck and this has caused many duck farmers to become millionaires overnight as the duck prices rise
(zerohedge)

Chinese Duck Farmers Become Overnight Millionaires As Half Of China’s Pigs Die

The price of China’s favorite food is about to hit all time highs.

As a result of the decimation of Chinese pig herds, which have been crippled by the ongoing spread of so-called “pig ebola”, i.e. African swine fever which has crippled domestic pork production, RaboBank expects China’s pork prices to hit a record high by the fourth quarter of 2019 even as imports continue to surge.

Last Tuesday China’s customs data showed that pork imports in June surged from the previous year, as the world’s top consumer of the meat stocked up on supplies after African swine fever swept across the country’s pig herds. China brought in 160,467 tonnes of pork in June, up 62.8% from the same month last year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. This was down 14% from 187,459 tonnes imported in May.

China’s pork imports for the first six months of the year came in at 818,703 tonnes, up 26.3% from a year earlier according to Reuters. Meanwhile, pork prices rose by nearly 30% in June compared with a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, with the spread of African swine fever showing no sign of abating, causing domestic production to plunge.

Retail pork prices have also increased in recent weeks but at a slower pace than whole sale prices, with prices up 34.6% from a year earlier at 27.29 yuan per kg as of July 10. And while China’s agriculture ministry is investigating local veterinary authorities in 10 provinces as it tries to slow the ongoing spread of the deadly African swine fever virus, few analysts expect it to succeed, and instead see prices rising even higher:

China’s pork and hog prices are likely to break the previous record high in 2016 by the fourth quarter,” said Pan Chenjun, senior analyst for animal protein at Rabobank. He also expects pork production to fall by 30% or about 16 million tonnes, leaving a gaping hole in the country’s protein supply. Analysts warn the disease could hit some farms more than once, and ratings agency Fitch forecasts pork output will stay below 2018 levels through 2021.

Rabobank pointed out that Chinese data showed that sow, or mother pig, inventory had dropped 26.7% and the number of hogs had fallen 25.8% at the end of June compared with a year ago. But it believes that the herd losses in specific regions are much worse, down by 40 to 60 per cent since last August. For 2019, the bank expects the total herd loss to exceed 50 per cent.

 

Since the first African swine fever outbreak in Liaoning province in August 2018, the disease has affected animals across the country, forcing China to cull more than 1.1 million pigs.

China began to import more pork in March when domestic wholesale prices started to rise. Imports of US pork – which fell 75% to 1,609 tonnes between July and December 2018 after China retaliated with tariffs in response to US duties on Chinese goods – have soared. Since January, imports from the US have more than tripled from 5,788 tonnes to 17,603 tonnes in May. While US pork imports to China face a 62% tariff, Bloomberg has cited unnamed sources saying that Beijing has approved duty waivers for some Chinese companies.

African swine fever will also put downward pressure on middle-class consumer spending, which Beijing is counting on to help boost growth in an economy that is expanding at its slowest pace in nearly three decades. China’s middle class accounts for around 400 million people, or 28.6% of the 1.4 billion population.

According to SCMP, economists at Capital Economics warned that Chinese consumption growth will be weighed down in the near term by consumer price inflation which is set to reach an eight-year high, due in large part to rising pork prices resulting from African swine fever.

“This will drag down real income growth and likely lead to a further deterioration in consumer sentiment,” they said in a report this month.

This also means that China is facing its first stagflationary episode since 2011: last month, China’s consumer price index
rose 2.7% Y/Y, driven by higher food prices in pork and fruits, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. And with spending curtailed, China’s economy will likely continue to contract even as prices of food stables rise.

* * *

Meanwhile, and as a result, prices for other meats including chicken and duck, are also expected to rise substantially, putting further pressure on the discretionary spending of Chinese consumers.

One direct – and soon to be very rich – beneficiary of China’s pig ebola are duck farmers. As the SCMP reports, on a 30-hectare (74-acre) plot of land in China’s Shandong province poultry hub, more than half a million white-feathered ducks are busy eating, chattering and laying eggs to produce cheap meat for thousands of factory canteens.

With birds already packed into around 60 open-sided buildings, farm owner Shenghe Group is expanding further, aiming to raise output by 30 per cent this year to capture record profits as a plunge in pig numbers shrinks production of pork, China’s favourite meat.

“The market prospects are very good now because of African swine fever,” said Shenghe Chairman Wang Shuhong, whose firm sells about 300,000 ducklings a day for fattening and slaughter.

Expect demand for ducks to soar, for the simple reason that the deadly pig disease has already reduced China’s hog herd by more than a quarter, according to official data, however as many as half of the country’s breeding sows are thought to have died or been slaughtered to cope with disease outbreaks.

 

A farmer surrounded by ducklings at a duck farm on the outskirts of Jiaxing in Zhejiang province on April 5, 2011. Photo: Reuters

Meanwhile, soaring pork prices have already fueled a surge in poultry meat demand. Chicken breast is about 20%  more expensive than a year ago, while duck breast has nearly tripled in price to 14,600 yuan (US$2,125) a tonne, according to Shenghe. While this is still only about half the cost of pork, but such prices are unheard of in China, where breast is typically the cheapest part of the bird.

As the SCMP also reports, about 80% of the world’s ducks are raised in China, but are traditionally eaten in the south, where fried duck tongues, braised feet and spicy duck neck are popular snacks, and duck intestines make up a hotpot.

In recent years, as pork prices spiked, more ducks have been processed for use by cost-conscious catering firms, supplying large canteens feeding schools, factories, businesses and the military. These buyers are now switching as much pricey pork as they can to duck.

A procurement manager with a catering firm that supplies about 100 large clients around China said he has replaced about 20 per cent to 30 per cent of the pork on menus with either chicken or duck meat. He declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.

“We may switch even more. But our concern is that the poultry price is now going up as well,” he said.

The price of day-old ducklings, sold by farms like Shenghe, has hovered around 6 yuan, three times the usual level, since July last year.While the torrid price surge eased last month as farmers held off restocking during hot summer weather, they are rising again and set to go higher, said Dong Xiaobo, China general manager for French genetics company Orvia, the No. 2 supplier of breeding ducks.

Orvia is sold out six months ahead and has even had calls from pig farmers considering raising ducks after losing their hogs to African swine fever.

“I’ve never seen this in our 10 years in this market,” said Dong.

As swine fever continues to spread, China’s vice-premier Hu Chunhua has urged poultry farmers to help fill the protein gap to maintain social and economic stability.

Meanwhile, with output of about 5 million tonnes last year, less than half China’s chicken production, duck meat has plenty of room for growth, especially since the barrier to entry is lower for ducks than broiler chickens and breeding stock is more available, said Rabobank analysts.

Ironically, any rapid expansion carries its own disease risks, as in densely stocked farms, diseases like bird flu, several  strains of which are circulating in China, will spread easily.And it remains to be seen whether duck farmers can hold on to a bigger share of the meat market when pork output recovers. As a reminder, in 2012 and 2016, duck farmers were forced out of the industry in droves when overproduction killed profits, and most people still want more pork dishes than any other meat, said the catering company manager.

But Shenghe’s Wang, who is planning to expand downstream with a slaughterhouse later this year, is not worried. “Pork output won’t go up in the next three years and will take at least five years to recover,” he said.

The bottom line: as China’s pork farmers face a dismal future, their duck farming friends are making more money than ever.

end
CHINA/USA
There is no chance for a grade deal.  Again Trump lashes out at China for continuing to move the goal posts\(zerohedge)

As Trade Talks Begin, Trump Lashes Out At China In Angry Tweetstorm

Just as the US trade delegation was set to leave for the first round of in-person talks with their Chinese counterparts since the latest Trump-Xi truce, President Trump sent out a furious series of tweets accusing Beijing of failing to live up to its promise to buy more American agricultural products – apparently “there are no signs that they are doing so” – while bashing the Chinese economy and suggesting that it might be better for the US in the long run to wait until after the 2020 election to make a deal, because “when I win, the deal that they get will be much tougher than what we are negotiating now…or no deal at all. We have all the cards, our past leaders never got it!”

Though, if Beijing gets lucky, they might get “one of the Democratic stiffs like Sleepy Joe. Then they could make a GREAT deal, like in the past 30 years…”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

China is doing very badly, worst year in 27 – was supposed to start buying our agricultural product now – no signs that they are doing so. That is the problem with China, they just don’t come through. Our Economy has become MUCH larger than the Chinese Economy is last 3 years….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

..My team is negotiating with them now, but they always change the deal in the end to their benefit. They should probably wait out our Election to see if we get one of the Democrat stiffs like Sleepy Joe. Then they could make a GREAT deal, like in past 30 years, and continue

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…to ripoff the USA, even bigger and better than ever before. The problem with them waiting, however, is that if & when I win, the deal that they get will be much tougher than what we are negotiating now…or no deal at all. We have all the cards, our past leaders never got it!

Surprisingly, the market’s reaction to Trump’s tweets was muted, though futures eventually moved lower. Still, it says a lot about what’s really driving the market.

Mark B. Spiegel@markbspiegel

Amazing how the China deal bullshit supposedly added hundreds of points to the S&P and now that it’s collapsing there’s minimal reaction. Clearly, this entire move is REALLY about money-printing. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1156159999833513984 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

China is doing very badly, worst year in 27 – was supposed to start buying our agricultural product now – no signs that they are doing so. That is the problem with China, they just don’t come through. Our Economy has become MUCH larger than the Chinese Economy is last 3 years….

With the FOMC’s two-day policy meeting set to begin on Tuesday, Trump just gave us the clearest indication yet that this market is all about the Fed. And with the Fed’s rate cut fully priced in, futures on the S&P 500 touched session lows after Trump’s remarks.

To recap where we are, following the escalation in May where the US imposed higher tariffs on China and President Trump accused China of trying to renegotiate the agreement at the last minute, the US and China reached a truce and agreed to resume talks last month at the G20 meeting in Osaka. At the meeting, President Trump opted not to put tariffs on the remaining $300bn of Chinese imports which had been threatened, and also offered a concession on Huawei, while China agreed to buy more products from the US. Little has been heard since though on how things are progressing. The longer things remain uncertain the more risks there are to the global economy. This is one of the biggest dilemmas for the FOMC as they today start their 2-day meeting ahead of tomorrow’s announcement.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK

Deutsche bank makes another major compliance blunder as many fired Deutsche bank employees retained access to corporate email accounts for weeks

(zerohedge)

In ‘Major Compliance Blunder’, Fired Deutsche Bankers Retained Access To Corporate Email For Weeks

 

In its rush to reduce its headcount, Deutsche Bank apparently forgot which employees it laid off, and which employees still worked at the bank.

The FT reports that DB has launched an internal investigation into whether “confidential client data were compromised” after the bank realized that some former employees retained access to company systems and their corporate email accounts for weeks after being laid off.

DB

One former equity sales person reportedly sent 450 messages via the company’s system after she was let go…and we doubt those messages were her merely saying one last goodbye to her treasured clients.

Around 50 traders in the London and New York offices were still able to access the bank’s systems and their emails for weeks after the first round of lay-offs started on July 8, according to people briefed on the compliance blunder. One equity salesperson sent 450 messages via remote access after she was let go.News of the oversight doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the lender, which is trying to convince shareholders that it can pull off one of the most radical restructurings since the financial crisis.

The investigation, which is being led by head of compliance Jeremy Kirk, will examine whether there has been any collusion between laid off staff and those who remain at the bank.

So far, they haven’t found anything incriminating.

“Access to trading systems was turned off immediately for employees being put at risk of redundancy,” the bank said. “A small number of employees continued to have access to their work emails through personal devices for a limited period.”

“We have reviewed nearly all emails sent and have so far found no evidence of any price sensitive information being communicated or of any other wrongdoing,” he added.

“Access to work emails has now been fully revoked.”

The 50 equity traders in NYC and London who retained access to company email were just some of the 900 employees who have been let go. Over the next few years, DB intends to shrink its global headcount by 18,000.

END

UK

Nigel  Farage offers his help to Boris Johnson.  If he accepts there is a great chance that they could “smash labour” and walk off with a hard Brexit

 

a good read…

 

(zerohedge/Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/RUSSIA

Not good: Iran and Russia are planning a joint naval drill in contested Gulf waters

(zerohedge)

Iran, Russia Planning Joint Naval Drill In Contested Gulf Waters

Russia and Iran are planning a joint naval exercise scheduled within the next year, commander of Iran’s Navy Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi announced Monday, according to state media. Semi-official Fars has reported it will take place by March 2020 in the Indian Ocean, and will be staged as far north as the strategic and increasingly tense Strait of Hormuz.

“A coordination meeting will be held between the two sides in this regard,” he said while on a three day visit to Russia. “When we speak of the Indian Ocean, perhaps the most important part of which is the northern region where it’s linked to the Sea of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz and also the Persian Gulf,” Khanzadi said from Saint Petersburg.

 

File image of prior Russia-Iran naval drills in the Caspian Sea. 

The Iranian naval chief is in Moscow to sign a ‘memorandum of understanding’ with the Russian Ministry of Defense for expanded mutual ties, and to observe a Russian naval parade. “This is the first MoU of its kind and can be regarded as a turning point in Tehran-Moscow military relations,” Khanzadi said of the largely symbolic agreement.

This is expected to include further development of military cooperation in the Caspian Sea, though nothing specific was indicated regarding the world’s largest inland body of water between Europe and Asia.

Iran is also trying to shore up the support of powerful allies as it’s preparing to resist US and UK military pressures in the vital Strait of Hormuz, and as it attempts to weather Washington’s economic and energy sanctions storm.

This comes further as a weekend report in UK media said London is mulling offering Russia a seat at the table on its European-led maritime coalition to safeguard tankers from Iranian attacks, something Moscow would likely rebuff, or alternately Moscow could actually consider such a proposal in order to have a hand in ensuring the avoidance of escalation.

Iran and Russia have going years back held joint naval drills in the Caspian Sea, however, wide-ranging drills in the Indian Ocean stretching up through the Persian Gulf would certainly gain the Pentagon’s attention and hold the potential for conflict as the region gets increasingly crowded with western naval assets to protect international shipping lanes.

END

IRAN/UK

No “quid pro quo: as the UK rejects Iran’s offer to swap each other’s seized tankers  UK demands the rule of law to be abided

(zerohedge)

“No Quid Pro Quo”: UK Rejects Iran’s Offer To Swap Seized Tankers

Britain this week has rejected an Iranian offer to swap each other’s captured tankers, as the crisis involving the British-flagged Stena Impero and the Iranian oil filled Grace 1 previously captured by Royal Marines off Gibraltar on July 4 has remained deadlocked.

Most observers agree it’s virtually a “foregone conclusion” that the tankers will ultimately be traded for one another, however, UK officials are still stalling over what they say are the norms of international law.

“There is no quid pro quo,” Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab asserted on BBC radio. “This is not about some kind of barter. This is about the international law and the rules of the international legal system being upheld and that is what we will insist on.”

 

UK Royal Marine aboard the Grace 1. Image released by the Ministry of Defence, via BBC.

In boarding the Grace 1 on July 4 just as it sought to enter the Mediterranean, British authorities claimed to have thwarted illegal EU sanctions busting related to Syria, as the Grace 1 was reportedly bound for the Syrian port of Baniyas to offload some 2 million barrels of oil to the fuel-starved, war-torn country. Leaders in Tehran accused the UK of simply doing America’s bidding, however.

Last Wednesday Iran’s president initially suggested an equal good faith swap of sorts. He proposed that should the UK release the Grace 1, Iran would do likewise and immediately release the Stena Impero.

“If Britain steps away from the wrong actions in Gibraltar, they will receive an appropriate response from Iran,” Rouhani said Wednesday addressing a weekly cabinet meeting. The words came the same day Britain had reportedly sent a mediator to Iran seeking to negotiate the ship’s return and its 23 detained crew members.

 

Iran has released multiple propaganda videos with its flag flying over the captured Stena Impero, via Getty.

Meanwhile, the longer the standoff over the captured tankers ensues, the greater potential for military conflict amid an increased build-up of US and UK forces in the Gulf, with Britain’s second major warship arriving this week to escort British-flagged tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

END

ISRAEL,IRAQ,IRAN/

A first:  Israel penetrates Iraqi airspace and conducts an “anti Iran” escalation by striking pro Iranian targets inside Iraq.

(zerohedge)

Mystery Airstrikes On Iraqi Camp Were Israeli Stealth Jets In “Anti-Iran” Escalation

Regional experts had immediately suspected the possibility of an Israeli air raid after a pro-Iranian militia arms depot in Iraq was obliterated during a mysterious attack on July 19, and another reported follow-up attack this past Sunday.

The attack happened around 80 km from the Iranian border and 40 km north-east of Baghdad at Camp Ashraf, former home to the Iranian exile group Mojahedin-e Khalq, but now reportedly in the hands of Iranian intelligence and paramilitaries.

Speculation was rampant in the days that followed as to the source of the ‘mysterious’ air strikes – or what was also initially reported as a drone strike – however, some pointed the finger at an American operation targeting Iranian militants inside Iraq.

 

Israeli F-35 stealth fighters. File image: Israeli Defense Forces

But now Israeli and regional media, citing western diplomats, have confirmed it was a nearly unprecedented Israeli operation on Iraqi soil — representing a major escalation and expansion of Israel’s anti-Iran operations.

Israel reportedly launched a total of two separate air strike operations on the camp using its US-supplied F-35 stealth fighter jets.

According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz:

Israel has expanded the scope of its anti-Iranian attacks and struck targets in Iraq, the London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported Tuesday.

According to the report, which cites anonymous Western diplomats, Israel struck Iranian warehouses storing arms and missiles at Camp Ashraf, north-east of Baghdad, twice in the past month.

On July 19, the base was struck by an Israeli F-35 fighter jet, the sources added. The base was allegedly attacked again on Sunday.

The report alleges the primary target included a shipment of Iranian ballistic missiles which recently entered Iraq via the nearby Iranian border.

And though not confirmed, the report further claimed that “Iranian advisers” had been injured in the series of airstrikes.

Israel has over the past couple of years conducted “hundreds” of attacks inside Syria, which defense officials have claimed were primarily against Iranian and Hezbollah bases, but if this month’s air strikes on Camp Ashraf are confirmed Israeli assaults, it would constitute a major widening in terms of the scope of Tel Aviv’s “anti-Iran” targeting operations.

The news is also sure to enrage officials in Baghdad, who will mount protests defending Iraqi sovereignty. Israel hasn’t mounted a known significant attack on Iraqi soil since the days of former dictator Saddam Hussein.

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

We have 3 ticking time bombs here:

  1. the amount of oil floating and oil located on onshore storage in Iran has now exceeded 110 million barrels.
  2.  China has been soaking up Iranian oil and putting it in their strategic reserves rising from 3.6 million barrels to almost 6 million
  3. Iranian exports of oil has dropped to only 417,000 barrels per day from 532,000 in June.

Iran’s economy will now implode exponentially as their only source of income is oil. Trump must have patience when he deals with iran.

(courtesy Irina Slav/OilPrice.com

 

A Ticking Time Bomb For Oil Markets

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Crude oil in floating and onshore storage in Iran has exceeded 110 million barrels, French energy data analysts Kpler reported this week, noting the number of barrels in floating storage specifically had increased almost twofold over the last two months.

Oil in floating storage reached 56 million barrels, Kpler said, as exports continued to slide, falling to 417,000 bpd in July from 532,000 bpd in June. Oil in onshore storage stood at 55.5 million barrels at the start of this week. This is up by 11 million barrels since the middle of May, shortly before the expiration of the sanction waivers. Onshore inventories will likely continue to rise steadily as floating storage is running near capacity.

 

Meanwhile, Iranian oil is also pushing Chinese stockpiles higher. From 3.2 million barrels in mid-June, China’s strategic petroleum reserve in the northeastern province of Liaoning has reached 6 million barrels to date.

China has become Iran’s most important oil buyer following the removal of U.S. sanction waivers in May, Kpler also noted. In June, Iran exported oil and condensate to China at a rate of 174,000 bpd, of which two-thirds was loaded after the expiration of the sanction waivers. This month, shipments increased considerably to more than 360,000 bpd.

Turkey is also importing Iranian crude at a growing rate despite the risk of sanction violation action on the part of Washington and shipments to Syria are probably continuing although there is no full visibility on these, Kpler says, as Iranian tankers turn off their geolocation devices in the Mediterranean.

So, there’s more than 110 million barrels of crude in storage, ready to flow and push prices lower. Since the chance of the United States suddenly reconsidering its stance on Iran is non-existent, this amount will only continue to rise. The possibility of it turning into a ticking bomb for international prices at some point in the future may be negligible now, but does not have to stay negligible forever.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1149 UP .0007 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.51 DOWN 0.341 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2173   DOWN   0.0043  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3175 UP .0009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 7 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1149 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 11.33 POINTS OR 0.39% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 40.09 POINTS OR 0.14%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,24%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 40.09 POINTS OR 0.14%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.33 POINTS OR 0.39%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 24% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 92.51  POINTS OR 0.43%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1429.20

silver:$16.47-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.05% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.57 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.08 UP 4 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.41% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.15%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.35%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,58 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 123 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.40% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.98% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1146  UP     .0004 or 4 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.68 DOWN .175 OR YEN UP 18  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2150 DOWN .0066 POUND DOWN 66  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 8 basis points to 1.3174

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8845    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8901  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.5605 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.157

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.06 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.59 UP 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.15 UP 10  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 16.08  0.38%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 265.34 POINTS OR 2.14%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 86.07 POINTS 1.54%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 229.70 POINTS or2.49%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 405.60 POINTS OR 1.87%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.21 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.10 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.67  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.23 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 23 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.40 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.18//

 

 

BRENT :  64.84

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.06…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.58..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1155 ( UP 13   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.59 DOWN .269 (YEN UP 27 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.05 UP 1 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2153 DOWN 62  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.5590

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.52   DOWN 0.08 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3148 UP 17 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8845  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8907 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.40%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 23.33 POINTS OR 0.09%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 19.71 POINTS OR 0.24%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.81 CLOSED UP .98

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.255%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Short-Squeeze Sparks Small Caps Spike, Crude Jumps As Cable Dumps

Beyond Belief…

 

China stocks dipped in the afternoon after a morning buying panic…

 

 

UK stocks limped lower, outperforming the rest of Europe as its currency crumbled…

 

European Bank stocks dropped back into the red for 2019 again…

 

US markets were mixed with Small Cap soaring off early weakness but the rest of the majors ending red with Nasdaq worst…

NOTE – Trannies spiked at the close into the green barely.

 

Is a Fed rate-cut enough to make new highs in stocks… just like we did in 1987…

 

Small Caps were saved by another huge short-squeeze…

 

BYND was battered…

 

And Under Armor was hammered…

 

VIX is about to enter the riskiest part of the year…

 

Another extremely narrow range day in Treasuries that ended with yields down 1-2bps across the curve…

 

The Dollar Index trod water on the day

 

Cable continued its slide (down 7 of the last 8 days) – heading for its worst month since Oct 2016…

NOTE – this will be the lowest monthly close for sterling since Jan 1985

 

Cryptos rallied on the day led by Bitcoin Cash (Bitcoin remains below $10k)…

 

Oil prices spiked today as China trade talks and Iran tensions raised premia as copper crumbled, PMs both rallied…

Silver outperformed Gold again…

Speculators are piling into the silver-options market as the precious metal returns to the limelight ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, where policy makers are widely expected to cut borrowing costs.

As Bloomberg’s Nancy Moran and Michael Roschnotti notes, the combined volume of calls and puts has surged above 218,000 contracts this month, on course for the highest since November 2010. The bulls driving the trading are of the mind the commodity will catch up to the gains of its pricier cousin gold, while the bears are counting on weakening global manufacturing to hurt industrial demand.

Gold has closed higher only once since 2013…

 

WTI spiked back above $58 ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

END

Finally, given the market’s expectations of at least a 25bps cut tomorrow, one wonders what the point is when global financial conditions are back at extreme easy levels…

Data-dependent my left nut!!

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Demand may be picking up in home sales with the lower interest rates.

(zerohedge)

Pending Home Sales Jump In June, Break 17-Month Losing Streak

After mixed home sales data (new higher and existing lower), pending home sales were expected to increase by 0.5% MoM but beat handily, rising 2.8% MoM.

As Bloomberg notes, contract signings to purchase previously owned U.S. homes rose in June by the most in three months, indicating demand may pick up with the help of lower mortgage rates and steady job growth.

“Job growth is doing well, the stock market is near an all-time high and home values are consistently increasing,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

“When you combine that with the incredibly low mortgage rates, it is not surprising to now see two straight months of increases.”

Pending home sales broke a 17 month losing streak, rising 1.6% YoY – the most since Feb 2017…

Contract signings increased 5.4% from the prior month in the West, the most in three months; rose for a fourth month in the Midwest; and advanced in the South and Northeast.

Pending home sales are often looked to as a leading indicator of existing-home purchases and a measure of the health of the housing market in the coming months.

end

This is the far more important of the home data reports:  The Case Shiller home price appreciation has slowed for the 14th consecutive month. Price appreciation allows consumers to spend as they borrow on the gain intheir home\(Case Shiller/zerohedge)

Case-Shiller Home Price Appreciation Slows For 14th Straight Month

US home price appreciation slowed for the 14th month in a row in May, rising only 2.39% YoY (below expectations), its weakest home price growth since Aug 2012…

 

“Though home price gains seem generally sustainable for the time being, there are significant variations between YOY rates of change in individual cities,” Philip Murphy, managing director and global head of index governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a release.

“Seattle’s home price index is now 1.2% lower than it was in May 2018, the first negative YOY change recorded in a major city in a number of years.”

Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities; seven of the 20 cities reported greater annual price increases in May.

Finally, there is a potential silver lining – if history is any guide…

Lower rates may be set to drag home prices higher.

end

Consumer Confidence Surges In July, Nears Highest Since 2000

The headline Conference Board Consumer Confidence data exploded higher, jumping from an upwardly revised 124.3 to 135.7 – just short of its highest since the year 2000.

  • Present situation confidence rose to 170.9 vs 164.3 last month
  • Consumer confidence expectations rose to 112.2 vs 97.6 last month

Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased from 37.5 percent to 40.1 percent, however, those saying business conditions are “bad” also increased slightly, from 10.6 percent to 11.2 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was also more favorable. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased from 44.0 percent to 46.2 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined from 15.8 percent to 12.8 percent.

“After a sharp decline in June, driven by an escalation in trade and tariff tensions, Consumer Confidence rebounded in July to its highest level this year,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

“Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labor market conditions. In addition, their expectations regarding their financial outlook also improved. These high levels of confidence should continue to support robust spending in the near-term despite slower growth in GDP.

Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term outlook in July. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will be better six months from now increased from 19.1 percent to 24.0 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen declined from 12.6 percent to 8.7 percent.

 

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Capital One hacked

(zerohedge)

Capital One Admits Massive Data Breach: 100 Million Americans Affected, Seattle Woman Arrested

Just a few short days after the Equifax data breach settlement – which affected 147 million Americans – Capital One Financial has just issued a statement confirming that on July 19th 2019, there was unauthorized access by an outside individual who obtained certain types of personal information relating to people who had applied for its credit card products and to Capital One credit card customers.

Based on their analysisthis event affected approximately 100 million individuals in the United States and approximately 6 million in Canada.

“While I am grateful that the perpetrator has been caught, I am deeply sorry for what has happened,” said Richard D. Fairbank, Chairman and CEO.

“I sincerely apologize for the understandable worry this incident must be causing those affected and I am committed to making it right.”

As The Washington Post reports, The FBI has arrested Paige A. Thompson, a Seattle area woman, on a charge of computer fraud and abuse, court records say. Thompson, who authorities say used the name “erratic” in online conversations, is suspected of “exfiltrating and stealing information, including credit card applications and other documents, from Capital One,” according to a criminal complaint filed in federal court. She was ordered to remain in jail pending a detention hearing scheduled for Thursday, according to court records.

It is unusual in a major hacking case for a suspect to be apprehended so quickly, and in this case, that was apparently due to boasts made online. In one online posting, “erratic” wrote:

“I’ve basically strapped myself with a bomb vest, [expletive] dropping capitol ones dox and admitting it,” according to the complaint.

The Capital One press release concludes:

We will notify affected individuals through a variety of channels. We will make free credit monitoring and identity protection available to everyone affected.

Safeguarding our customers’ information is essential to our mission and our role as a financial institution. We have invested heavily in cybersecurity and will continue to do so. We will incorporate the learnings from this incident to further strengthen our cyber defenses.

We are very thankful to the FBI’s Seattle Field Office and Special Agent Joel Martini, to U.S. Attorney Brian T. Moran, and to Assistant U.S. Attorneys Steven Masada and Andrew Friedman of the Western District of Washington for the speed with which they responded to this incident and apprehended the responsible party.

For more information about this incident and what Capital One is doing to respond, visit www.capitalone.com/facts2019. In Canada, information can be found at www.capitalone.ca/facts2019 and www.capitalone.ca/facts2019/fr. The investigation is ongoing and analysis is subject to change. As we learn more, we will update these websites to provide additional information.

Bloomberg reports that in court on Monday, Thompson broke down and laid her head down on the defense table during the hearing. She is charged with a single count of computer fraud and faces a maximum penalty of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine.

END

No doubt about it! If the Fed cuts rates tomorrow, it will surely be an admission that a recession is upon us. The reason for the rate cut is due to a global liquidity problem

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

If The Fed Cuts Rates Now, It’ll Be An Admission That A Recession Is Imminent

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

So there is a lot of buzz that the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates – and it might actually happen.  We’ll see.  But if it does happen, it will directly contradict the carefully crafted narrative about the economy that the Federal Reserve has been perpetuating all this time.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly insisted that the U.S. economy is in great shape even when there has been a tremendous amount of evidence indicating otherwise And of course President Trump has been repeatedly telling us that this is “the greatest economy in the history of our country”, but now he is loudly calling for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as well.  Something doesn’t seem to add up here.  If the U.S. economy really was “booming”, there is no way that the Fed should cut interest rates.  Right now interest rates are already low by historical standards, and theoretically it is during the “boom” times that interest rates should be normalized.  But if the U.S. economy is actually slowing down and heading into a recession, then a rate cut would make perfect sense.  And if that is the reality of what we are facing, then the economic optimists have been proven dead wrong, and people like me that have been warning of an economic slowdown have been proven right.

If the talking heads on television are correct, we’ll probably see a rate cut.  In fact, apparently there are some people that are even pushing “for a 50 basis point cut”

Most Fed watchers believe that the central bank will cut its funds rate, now hovering between 2.25% and 2.5%, by a quarter point, also known as 25 basis points. A small group — including President Donald Trump’s latest nominee for Fed governor — are pounding the table for a 50 basis point cut, which would take the rate below 2%. A rate cut of any size would be the first since the 2008 financial crisis.

A 50 basis point cut is something that would normally only be done during an economic emergency.

As we noted previously, the latest three rate cut resulted in a recession within 3 months of the first cut.

Have we already reached such a point?

That wouldn’t seem to be the case.  Stock prices are still at record highs, and at least according to the government’s highly manipulated figures, U.S. GDP is still growing

The nation’s gross domestic product – the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S. – increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1% in the April-June period, following a 3.1% gain in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday. Economists expected a 1.8% increase in output.

The report comes amid mounting worries that the sluggish global economy and President Trump’s trade war with China could lead to a recession by next year.

Yes, there are tons of other indicators that are clearly telling us that an economic slowdown has already begun, and I am not going to repeat everything that I have been saying for the past 6 months in this article.

But even though things are definitely moving in the wrong direction, I would definitely not call what we are currently experiencing “an economic emergency” just yet.

After all, things can’t be too bad if a 16-year-old kid just won 3 million dollars playing video games

A teenager from Pennsylvania won $3 million and took home the top prize at the 2019 Fortnite World Cup on Sunday. Kyle “Bugha” Giersdorf scored 26 more points than runner-up “psalm” to win the eSports tournament held at Arthur Ashe Stadium in Queens.

“Words can’t even explain it. I’m just so happy,” the 16-year-old said in an interview posted to Twitter by organizers. “Everything I’ve done, the grind, it’s all paid off. It’s just insane.”

Good for that kid.  I wish that I was talented enough to be a world champion at something.

Unfortunately, when things get really bad in this country money is going to start getting really tight, and we simply are not there yet.

So could it be possible that there is another reason for the sudden push to get the Fed to reduce rates?

Well, CNBC’s Steve Liesman seems to think that there could be a political motivation

“Think about what happens when a person gets up at a rally and starts railing against The Federal Reserve, and starts to create what could lead to Congressional pressure on The Fed, then you could imagine that their could be support for a different system.”

“I think they think there’s a lot of political downside risk to getting this wrong.”

If the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut rates and the U.S. economy really starts going off the rails, they will be President Trump’s number one economic target during the 2020 campaign.

And it has already gotten to the point where Trump is regularly attacking them on social media.  For example, he posted the following just a little while ago

The Fed “raised” way too early and way too much. Their quantitative tightening was another big mistake. While our Country is doing very well, the potential wealth creation that was missed, especially when measured against our debt, is staggering.

If a wave of anti-Fed sentiment helps get Trump re-elected, that could potentially be a nightmare scenario for the folks over at the Federal Reserve.  With a full second term and a Republican majority in Congress, President Trump could decide to dramatically reform or completely get rid of the Federal Reserve system altogether.  Of course those that follow my work regularly know that I would be thrilled by this, because I have been advocating for the elimination of the Federal Reserve system for many years.

The sort of political scenario that I just outlined probably won’t happen, but even if there is a small chance that it could happen the people running the Federal Reserve have got to account for that possibility.

So cutting rates would be a way to “play it safe” by appeasing President Trump and his supporters.  If President Trump senses that the Fed is on his team, then he probably won’t be inclined to make a big move against them.

In any event, a small rate cut is definitely not going to do much to alter our overall economic trajectory.

Because the truth is that an economic slowdown has already begun, and many experts are anticipating that it will greatly accelerate during the second half of this year.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

This is unconstitutional but California passes a law banning Trump from the ballot unless he releases his tax returns. The Constitution is very clear who can quality to run for President and that a state cannot add on to any requirement to run

(zerohedge)

“California Should Be Embarrassed” – State Passes Law Banning Trump From Ballot Unless Tax Returns Released

We’re thrilled to see the far-left in America has the same respect for the Democratic process as their forebears did (for a reference to their forebears, see here).

On Tuesday, Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill requiring President Trump to either release his tax returns or he won’t appear on the ballot in the state.

Calif Gov. Gavin Newsom

Under SB 27, called the “Presidential Tax Transparency and Accountability Act,” any candidate running for president or governor in California must file copies of their tax returns from the previous five years to the California secretary of State, or their names will be stricken from the ballot, the Hill reports.

Newsom argued that, as the largest economic engine within the US, California has a “responsibility” to demand this additional information (for the record: the Constitution doesn’t say anything about candidates releasing tax returns – though the federal income tax didn’t exist back on).

“As one of the largest economies in the world and home to one in nine Americans eligible to vote, California has a special responsibility to require this information of presidential and gubernatorial candidates,” Newsom said.

“These are extraordinary times and states have a legal and moral duty to do everything in their power to ensure leaders seeking the highest offices meet minimal standards, and to restore public confidence. The disclosure required by this bill will shed light on conflicts of interest, self-dealing, or influence from domestic and foreign business interest.”

A Trump campaign spokesman called the new law “unconstitutional,” and insisted that there was a good reason why California’s last governor, Jerry Brown, refused to sign the legislation.

In a statement, Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh called the move “unconstitutional.”

“There are very good reasons why the very liberal Gov. Jerry Brown vetoed this bill two years ago – it’s unconstitutional and it opens up the possibility for states to load up more requirements on candidates in future elections. What’s next, five years of health records?” he said.

Murtaugh said states cannot add requirements to presidential candidates’ qualifications for running.

“The Constitution is clear on the qualifications for someone to serve as president and states cannot add additional requirements on their own,” he said. “The bill also violates the 1st Amendment right of association since California can’t tell political parties which candidates their members can or cannot vote for in a primary election.”

Unsurprisingly, the bill was overwhelmingly passed by California’s assembly and the state senate earlier this month. Among its more appalling provisions, the bill includes an “urgency clause”, which would allow it to take effect before the 2020 vote, meaning any Californians who want to vote for President Trump might need to write his name in.

Though it has faded from the headlines somewhat, the battle over Trump’s tax returns continues to rage. The administration is already suing New York State, which recently passed a law allowing the state to request Trump’s tax returns, while in Congress, the Ways and Means Committee has filed a lawsuit over the administration’s refusal to release Trump’s returns, which is likely the beginning of a lengthy legal battle.

Surprisingly, Trump was joined in his outrage by some liberal pundits who have stood out for their opposition to Trump’s ideas.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

This remains a terrible, anti-democratic idea and California should be embarassed. https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/1156257533620678656 

Matt Pearce 🦅

@mattdpearce

New: Gov. Gavin Newsom just signed a law that would disqualify President Trump for California’s primary ballot next year unless Trump releases his tax returns. Expect a big, ugly court fight. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-07-30/trump-tax-returns-california-ballot-gavin-newsom-law 

We imagine California won’t be the last state to pass such a bill, but given Trump’s deep unpopularity throughout most of the state, he was unlikely to win any delegates from California: Imagine what will happen when swing states like Colorado and New Hampshire start trying to pass these types of laws?

And finally….

end
Another victim, Jennifer Araoz accuses Epstein of raping her when she was 15.
(zerohedge)

Epstein Accused Of Forcibly Raping 15-Year-Old In New Docs Filed Day Before Mysterious Prison Injury

Just one day before convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein was found in his jail cell with mysterious injuries, the accused child sex-trafficker was served with legal documents claiming that he forcibly raped a 15-year-old girl in his New York mansion in 2001, according to CNBC.

The accuser, Jennifer Araoz, plans to sue Epstein next month for claims of sexual assault, battery and rape, which she alleges he started committing when she was a New York high school student in 2001, according to a court filing earlier this month.

But first, Araoz is asking a judge to order Epstein to submit to a deposition, where he can be asked by Araoz’s lawyers the identity of a female “recruiter”who allegedly conspired with him to identify her “as a potential sexual abuse victim” and “facilitated the grooming” of Araoz. –CNBC

Araoz first detailed the alleged sexual assault on July 10, days after Epstein’s arrest.

 

Epstein gave her a tour of his mansion that culminated in a visit to what he described as his “favorite room in the house,” Araoz said. A massage table sat on the floor. A painting of a nude young woman hung from the wall.

Araoz would return to that room regularly over the next year, she said, manipulated into stripping down to her panties and giving Epstein massages that ended with him pleasuring himself to completion and her leaving with $300.

In the fall of 2002, Epstein pressured her to do more, Araoz said. He told her to remove her panties. Then he grabbed her 15-year-old body.

He raped me, forcefully raped me,” Araoz told NBC News in an exclusive interview. “He knew exactly what he was doing.”

I was terrified, and I was telling him to stop. ‘Please stop,’” Araoz, now 32, added.

“Upon identification of the recruiter, she will be added as a defendant to” Araoz’s pending lawsuit. “Further, the recruiter possesses critical evidence of [Araoz’s] sexual assault claims,” reads the filing.

The unnamed recruiter is undoubtedly Ghislaine Maxwell, who has been accused by several women of actively seeking out young women to satisfy Epstein’s sexual desires. Among others, Maxwell was accused by allgeged Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre of recruiting the then-15-year-old into sexual slavery while she was working at a towel girl at President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club.

Araoz’s filing also requests that a judge order Epstein to produce records of who worked for him between 2000 and 2003, as well as logs of “everyone who entered or exited his” Upper East Side townhouse over the same period.

A New York City Sheriff’s Office official gave Epstein — a former friend of Presidents Donald Trump and Bill Clinton — copies of that request and related documents on July 22 at the Metropolitan Correctional Center, according to an affidavit filed Monday in Manhattan Supreme Court.

Epstein, 66, has been held in that federal jail in lower Manhattan since early July, when he was arrested on child sex trafficking charges.

A day after he was given the court documents, Epstein was found injured and semi-conscious on the floor of his cell, with marks on his neck. He then was was put on suicide watch. –CNBC

According to a lawyer for one of Epstein’s victims, the financier may have been injured in an attempted ‘hit’ in order to prevent him from implicating powerful people who may have participated in his sexual deviance.

A lawyer for the now-32-year-old Araoz said “Jennifer endured unspeakable abuse by Jeffrey Epstein and his enablers, who robbed her of a piece of her childhood,” adding “She brought this action to hold those responsible accountable and deliver a simple message: she’s not afraid anymore.”

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Possibly because ESUs fell on Sunday/early Monday instead of staging their usual rally, and certainly because the Fed will announce its policy changes on Wednesday, DJT slammed the Fed on Monday.

@realDonaldTrump: The E.U. and China will further lower interest rates and pump money into their systems, making it much easier for their manufacturers to sell product. In the meantime, and with very low inflation, our Fed does nothing – and probably will do very little by comparison. Too bad!

The Fed “raised” way too early and way too much. Their quantitative tightening was another big mistake. While our Country is doing very well, the potential wealth creation that was missed, especially when measured against our debt, is staggering. We are competing with other countries that know how to play the game against the U.S. That’s actually why the E.U. was formed….and for China, until now, the U.S. has been “easy pickens.” The Fed has made all of the wrong moves. A small rate cut is not enough, but we will win anyway!

Trump’s 50bp rate cut tantrum generated a five-handle ESU rally; but it peaked by 8: 00 ET.  ESUs then tumbled until 10:03 ET.  The post-NYSE open dip rally ended at midday.  The plodding morning rally produced an 8-handle ESU rally, a tepid rally for a Monday.  After the midday dip, the afternoon rally appeared on schedule.  But, it lost its mojo almost immediately.  After vacillating within a two-handle range for almost the entire first hour of the afternoon, ESUs declined into the VIX Fix.  ESUs then went inert until the last-hour rally attempt commenced.  It failed quickly.

Monday’s action was largely confined to the early plunge and counter-rally that followed.

The US early decline was led by uber-tech stocks, the same vehicles that soared on Friday.  Before the first thirty minutes of US trading ended, Amazon, Netflix and Facebook were all down 1% or more.   Apple rallied because traders want to be long into Apple’s Q2 results, due are today’s close.

Rank & file traders want to be long into the FOMC Communique release.  Algos and pattern traders also want to be long for the policy decision.  However, the early tumble in FANGs on Monday implies wiser guys are liquidating the trading sardines that they bought last week.  This leads us to believe that the trading sardine sellers believe or know the Fed will cut rates by only 25bps on Wednesday.

The probability of a 25bp rate cut has been 100% since the last FOMC meeting six weeks ago.  Ergo, unless the Fed cuts 50bps on Wednesday, stocks are very vulnerable to a decline on ‘sell the fact’.

Besides better economic data over the past few weeks and a soaring stock market, another reason for not cutting rates 50bps is the July Employment Report on Friday.  A solid report is expected; a strong report would make the Fed look like better fools than they have been demonstrating.

The July Employment Report has the capacity of surprising to the upside because there is normally a very large loss of jobs in July.  Last year, the BLS reported that 1.114 million jobs were lost in July NSA.  Ergo, there is a very large positive seasonal adjustment to July NFP.  With the expectation of 1.1+ million jobs disappearing, a modest to moderate positive deviation could generate a large July NFP gain.

2018 Total nonfarm over-the-month change, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total nonfarm over-the-month change 1,015 977 702 -1,114 505 340 1,060 522 -172

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

For July 2018, the BLS reported 178k NFP seasonally adjusted.  Ergo, the seasonal adjustment was +178k + 1,114k or +1.292 million jobs.

The British pound tanked on Monday on the prospect that there will be a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

Pound Tumbles More Than 1% as Fears of a No-Deal Brexit Mount

U.K. Chancellor Sajid Javid said he was stepping up Treasury preparations for no-deal and top aide Michael Gove wrote in the Sunday Times that the government was “working on the assumption” the talks with the EU would fail…    https://bloom.bg/2YeoInp

Johnson Issues Ultimatum to EU over Brexit Talks as Pound Slumps

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will not start talks with European Union leaders over Brexit unless they first agree to his demand to reopen the divorce deal they struck with his predecessor Theresa May last year.  So far, EU officials have refused…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-29/u-k-s-johnson-issues-ultimatum-to-eu-leaders-over-brexit-talks

How negative interest rates helped turn Deutsche Bank into a disaster

Negative rates are also crushing the profitability of all banks… It’s no secret that negative rates are an outright tax on banks.  Under normal times, lenders earn interest when they keep excess reserves at the central bank. But under negative rates, it’s the opposite: The central bank charges banks interest for sitting on that cash. The goal is to encourage lending — but in practice it has squeezed lending profitability, also known as net interest income

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/29/business/deutsche-bank-ecb-negative-rates/index.html

We opined that DJT has embarked on a campaign strategy of targeting urban Dem leaders whose constituents live in squalor and high-crime areas.  As a result, Trump is obliterating the ‘rule’ that minority politicians cannot be criticized.

 

Yesterday, DJT turned his mouth on Rev. Al, an erstwhile Trump buddy: I have known Al for 25 years. Went to fights with him & Don King, always got along well. He “loved Trump!” He would ask me for favors often. Al is a con man, a troublemaker, always looking for a score. Just doing his thing. Must have intimidated Comcast/NBC. Hates Whites & Cops!

    Baltimore, under the leadership of Elijah Cummings, has the worst Crime Statistics in the Nation. 25 years of all talk, no action! So tired of listening to the same old Bull…Next, Reverend Al will show up to complain & protest. Nothing will get done for the people in need. Sad! [Al went to Baltimore yesterday]

    Al Sharpton would always ask me to go to his events. He would say, “It’s a personal favor to me.” Seldom, but sometimes, I would go. It was fine. He came to my office in T.T. during the presidential campaign to apologize for the way he was talking about me. Just a conman at work!

 

Last week, Trump forced Dems and the MSM to defend and support the Radical 4.  Now, he’s forcing Dems and the media to defend and support Rev. Al!

 

Ex- US Attorney for DC, Joe di Genova, says that documents requested by Rep. Devin Nunes will be declassified and released by Wednesday; more documents will follow.  Joe says, “The declassification process will start this week… Durham is progressing very very quickly. This is not a review … This is a criminal investigation of a bunch of people who tried to seditiously overthrow the President of the United States.https://twitter.com/ILMFOrg/status/1155907085210660866

 

The mysterious Mister Mifsud and why no one wants to discuss him

He could just be a rumor-spreading, Putin-loving professor from Malta. Or he could be a master spy working for the Russians — or for Western intelligence. What makes him so scary is not what we know but what we don’t know … that and the fact that no one on Mueller’s team or in the political establishment wants to talk about him.

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/455002-the-mysterious-mister-mifsud-and-why-no-one-wants-to-discuss-him

 

Ali Alexander @ali: It’s been 667 days since the Las Vegas shooting and we still have no conclusions on the deadliest mass shooting in American history And CNN and NBC and ABC and Fox News aren’t asking *any* questions of our government.  Hard to call this a republic at this point.

Well that is all for today

I will see you Wednesday night.

 

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