JULY 31/GOLD DOWN $3.90 IN COMEX TRADING THEN DOWN ANOTHER 12 DOLLARS IN ACCESS TRADING//SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS IN COMEX TRADING AND THEN ANOTHER 12 CENTS IN ACCESS TRADING//POWELL DISAPPOINTS THE MARKET WITH HIS “ADJUSTMENT” RATE CUT..I.E. ONLY ONE CUT : MARKET IN TURMOIL WITH THAT DISAPPOINTMENT//HE ALSO STOPS THE RUN OFF ON HIS BALANCE SHEET TWO MONTHS EARLIER THAN PLANNED///STRONG AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER STANDING FOR METAL AT THE COMEX ON THIS FIRST DAY NOTICE/

GOLD:$1425.60  DOWN $3.90(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:16.40 DOWN 14 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1414.00

 

silver:  $16.27

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 316/800

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,429.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/30/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 08/01/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 41
132 C SG AMERICAS 18
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 76
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 45
661 C JP MORGAN 303 316
685 C RJ OBRIEN 30
686 C INTL FCSTONE 254 15
690 C ABN AMRO 128
737 C ADVANTAGE 29 14
800 C MAREX SPEC 4
880 H CITIGROUP 260
905 C ADM 63 4
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 800 800
MONTH TO DATE: 800

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 800 NOTICE(S) FOR 80000 OZ (2.4883 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  800 NOTICES FOR 80,000 OZ  (2.4883 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST CONTACT MONTH: THE NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED

 

 

15 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 75,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 15 for   75,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9985 UP 415 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10640 UP 823

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG  SIZED 1979 CONTRACTS FROM 237,080 UP TO 239,059 WITH THE 8 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 652 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  652 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 652 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 652 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.260 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 8 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

5.3100 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR AUGUST.

 

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT WITH ZERO SUCCESS..AND ZERO SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY:

35,147 CONTRACTS (FOR 21 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 35,147 CONTRACTS) OR 175.74 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1674 CONTRACTS OR 8.370 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY:  175.74 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 25.05% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1333.23   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1979, WITH THE 8 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 652 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED: 2631 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 652 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1979  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.54 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.196 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 170% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 15 NOTICE(S) FOR 75,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ//AUGUST:  5.310 MILLION OZ//
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 8903 CONTRACTS, TO 563,298 DESPITE THE  $9.00 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW BEEN COMPLETED FOR GOLD AS WE ENTERED FIRST DAY NOTICE….AND WE SHOULD COMMENCE WITH ACCUMULATION OF SPREADERS IN SILVER ONCE THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH COMMENCES IN EARNEST.

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 9921 CONTRACTS: AUGUST 2019: 00 CONTRACTS, DEC>  9921 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 563,298,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1018 CONTRACTS: 8903 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 9921 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 1,018 CONTRACTS OR 101,800 OZ OR 3.166 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE GAIN OF $9.00 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A SMALL GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 6.329  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER. ALMOST ALL OF THE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO THE CLIMAX IN THE LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS.

 

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE HAVE WITNESSED THE MORPHING OF OUR SPREADERS OUT OF SILVER AND INTO GOLD AS THE JULY MONTH PROCEEDED TO ITS CONCLUSION ONCE WE ENTER INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST. ONCE AUGUST BEGINS THE SPREADERS WILL RETURN TO SILVER WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATION DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF THE SEPT CONTRACT MONTH.

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

 

“HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE COMEX SILVER DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE SILVER COMEX OPEN INTEREST WILL START TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO WILL THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF THE UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 190,187 CONTRACTS OR 19,018,700 oz OR 591.56 TONNES (21 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9056 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 591.56 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 591.56/3550 x 100% TONNES =16.66% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3511.17  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 8903 DESPITE THE STRONG PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($9.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9921 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9921 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD  SIZED GAIN OF 2035 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

9921 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 8903 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 3.16 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN SILVER AS WE ENTER THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

 

we had:  800 notice(s) filed upon for 80,000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

 

A NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY:

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1979 CONTRACTS from 237,080 UP TO 239,059 AND NOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS WILL NOW COMMENCE THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AS THEY HAVE STOPPED THEIR SPREADER- LIQUIDATION PHASE IN GOLD.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JULY: 0 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 652  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 652 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1979  CONTRACTS TO THE 652 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2631 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5.239 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.885 MILLION OZ  AND AUGUST AT 5.310 MILLION OZ SO FAR.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 652 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.83 POINTS OR 0.67%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 368.75 POINTS OR 1.31%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 1876.78 POINTS OR 0.87%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .46%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8827 /Oil UP TO 58.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.03 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8827 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8902 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

i)This is dangerous! Mainland China gathers forces on the Hong Kong border

(zerohedge)

ii)The engine for global growth in China and when we see Chinese Mfg PMI in contraction and service PMI at 2019 lows, you know that the world is in trouble

(zerohedge)

iii)My goodness, that did not take long!! The USA China trade talks collapse after half a day of negotiations

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

a)Bill Blain discusses two major issues before us:

  1. Brexit and the Irish backstop
  2.  China/USA and its non trade deal

and it is these two factors which will cause the Fed to lower rates

(Bill Blain)

b) UBS is now set to charge its rich clients (deposits greater than 2 million Swiss francs) a negative interest rate of 3/4%

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Saudi Arabia.USA

Mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks is Khalid and he could blow the Saudi role wide open in his lawsuit testimony.  The question is will Trump allow his plea deal.

(zerohedge)

 

6.Global Issues

Something to think about as Michael Every discusses two important laws which have been guiding economics for centuries:  Gresham’s Law and Say’s Law.  Gresham;s law from the 1500’s and Say’s Law from 1803

(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)ted Butler reports on huge buying of silver futures and hints at a possible sovereign. I wonder who that could be?

(Ted Butler/Kaiser/GATA)

ii)Hugo outlines a plan that the Mexican government can implement with a silver backed peso coin. This coin would not be inflationary but hoarded by the masses.

(courtesy Hugo Salinas Price/GATA)

iii)China’s foreign exchange agency (SAFE) finally gives details as to how they are diversifying away form the USA dollar

(South China Morning Post/GATA)

iv)Larry Lindsay blasts Trump with his call to devalue the dollar

(Lindsay/CNBC/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)The generally ebullient ADP employment data shows a rebound from last month but still small business data continues with poor numbers

(ADP)

b)My goodness, this was a precipitous fall:  The Chicago PMI contracts to the worst ever in over 30 years. While other regional areas fluctuate, the Chicago PMI continues to flounder,

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Trump is silent after a huge number of coal miners bite the dust after declaring bankruptcy protection’

 

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)A complete joke:  a judge throws out a meritless DNC lawsuit against Trump, Russia Assange and just about everybody else..

(zerohedge)

b)Deep Staters in action:

(zerohedge)

c)It looks like Trump was right..there are texts between the FBi and MI 5 on the early role of the UK in Russiagate

(zero hedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 8,903 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 563,298 DESPITE THE STRONG GAIN OF $9.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9921 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 9921   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9921 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 1,018 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9921 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A HUGE SIZED 8903 COMEX CONTRACTS THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. THE ENTIRE DROP IN GOLD OPEN INTEREST WAS DUE TO THE CLIMAX IN THE LIQUIDATION OF OUR GOLD SPREADERS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  1018 CONTRACTS OR 101800 OZ OR 3.166 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 8,700 CONTRACTS. Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold oz standing in this active delivery month of August is as follows:  8700 x 100 oz per contract  =  870,000 oz or 27.06 tonnes.  This is huge!! Now we await to see if they can satisfy any of those standing over on this side of pond.  I extremely doubt that much will be settled over here and we will witness most of these guys morphing over to London with London based gold forwards.

The next non active month is September and here the OI rose by 249 contracts up to 3663.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI rose by 1403 contracts up to 43,090.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 800 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  80,000 OZ. (2.4883 TONNES)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1979 CONTRACTS FROM 237,080 UP TO 239,059 (AND MUCH CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 1062 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY. 

THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS AS FOLLOWS:

1062 CONTRACTS X 5000 OZ PER CONTRACT  =  5.310 MILLION OZ…WHICH IS HUGE.  LET’S SEE IF WE WILL WITNESS MORE SILVER QUEUE JUMPING AS THE CROOKS TRY AND RETRIEVE FAST DEPLETING SILVER.

THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 1045 CONTRACTS UP TO 159,053 CONTRACTS. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT. IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RESTS AT 48,607 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 15 notice(s) filed for 75,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 281,384  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  354,935  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

JULY 31/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
32.15 oz
Manfra
l kilobar
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 25,002.500 oz

 

Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

5669.903 oz

Delaware

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
800 notice(s)
 80,000 OZ
(2.4883 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
7900 contracts
(790,000 oz)
24.56 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
800 notices
80,000 OZ
2.4883 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 1 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

i) Into Brinks:  25,002.500 oz

 

 

total dealer deposits: 25,002.500 oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Delaware: 5669.903  oz

 

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 5669.903  oz

 

 for the past few years,very little gold arrives from outside/

that changed a bit today:

a good amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i)Out of Manfra: 32.15 oz

one kilobar

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 32.15  oz

 

 

i) we had 2 adjustment today
i) Out of Delaware:  4968.688 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account
ii) Out of Bank of Nova Scotia:  7582.286 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer acct of BNS

FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 303 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 800 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 316 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (800) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (8700 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (800 x 100 oz per contract) equals 869,900 OZ OR 27.06 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (800 x 100 oz)  + (8700)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (800 x 100 oz )which equals 870,000 oz standing OR 27.06 TONNES in this active delivery month of AUGUST.

 

.

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 11.299 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.06  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS. SINCE THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX WE WILL WITNESS CONSIDERABLE MORPHING OF CONTRACTS STANDING OVER TO LONDON.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  363,290.155 oz or  11.299 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,783,669.632 oz 242.104 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 33 MONTHS 115 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
JULY 31 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 636,497.735 oz
HSBC
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,685,318.498 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
15
CONTRACT(S)
(75,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
 contracts
 280,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 15 contracts

75,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT: 1,685,318.498 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,685,318.498  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of HSBC:  365,940.705 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 270,557.030 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 636,497.735  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 1,382,118.402 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  95.199 million

total dealer + customer silver:  310.374 million oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2019. contract month is represented by 15 contract(s) FOR 75,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 15 x 5,000 oz = 75,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (56) and the number of notices served upon today (15 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 15 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (1062)- number of notices served upon today (15)x 5000 oz equals 5,310,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 15 notice(s) filed for 75,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  86,549 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 62,012 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 162,012 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 310 million  OZ 44.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.18.% ((JULY 31/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.17% to NAV (JULY 31/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.18%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.28 TRADING 13.82/DISCOUNT 3.21

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.50: A HUGE INVENTORY WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LEAVES THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 818.14 TONNES

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: ANOTHER 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD REMOVED AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD AT THE COMEX/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.61 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JULY 31/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 824.89 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 632 TRADING DAYS: 109.85 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 532 TRADING DAYS: A NET 55.83 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 26.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:  A HUGE 1.03 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER LEAVES THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 357.183 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.575 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JULY 31/2019:

 

Inventory 356.715 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.23/ and libor 6 month duration 2.19

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .04

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.16%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.19

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.03

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

ted Butler reports on huge buying of silver futures and hints at a possible sovereign. I wonder who that could be?

(Ted Butler/Kaiser/GATA)

Ted Butler reports huge buying in silver futures and ETFs

 Section: 

9:27a ET Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver market analyst Ted Butler, interviewed over last weekend by Dunagun Kaiser for Reluctant Preppers, discusses two extraordinary developments in the silver market:

Silver futures have been purchased in size by a big buyer or buyers, creating a concentrated long position in a market long dominated by a concentrated short position.

— There has been a huge increase in silver deposited into the silver exchange-traded funds.

… 

The last time this happened, Butler says, was in 2010-11, just before the last big increase in silver’s price.

The big obstacle to a major rise in silver, Butler says, remains the big shorts on the New York Commodities Exchange, which remains a hugely manipulated market. He expects the shorts to be overwhelmed this time but admits that they may remain strong enough to knock the price down again.

The interview is 44 minutes long and can be heard at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjjgibKGPsE&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Hugo outlines a plan that the Mexican government can implement with a silver backed peso coin. This coin would not be inflationary but hoarded by the masses.

(courtesy Hugo Salinas Price/GATA)

Hugo Salinas Price: The ‘Liberty’ silver ounce — its origin and its future

 Section: 

12:11p ET Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Monetary metals advocate Hugo Salinas Price of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver explains today why Mexico’s first attempt to remonetize silver with the “Liberty Ounce” coin failed four decades ago and how a second attempt could succeed, giving Mexicans a great gift of wealth that would not be inflationary. Salinas Price’s commentary is headlined “The ‘Liberty’ Silver Ounce: Its Origin and Its Future” and it’s posted at the association’s internet site, Plata.com.mx, here:

http://plata.com.mx/enUS/More/381?idioma=2

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

China’s foreign exchange agency (SAFE) finally gives details as to how they are diversifying away form the USA dollar

(South China Morning Post/GATA)

China’s FX agency gives details of diversification away from U.S. dollar

 Section: 

How are China’s foreign-exchange assets safe when most are held in financial instruments that can be frozen or nullified with the push of a button on an adversary’s computer keyboard?

* * *

China Has ‘Price to Pay’ for Cutting U.S. Dollar Share of Forex Reserves, Analysts Say

By Karen Ueung
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Tuesday, July 30, 2019

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3020675/china-has-pri…

China’s sharp reduction in U.S. dollar asset holdings has increased the risk of its investment portfolio, analysts have said in response to a disclosure of historical data by the agency charged with managing its foreign exchange reserves.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on Sunday disclosed that it had cut the portion of U.S. dollar-denominated assets in its reserves portfolio to 58 percent in 2014, below the international average of 65 percent and down sharply from the 79 percent of China’s holdings in 2005.

… 

And while Beijing hailed its diversification from U.S. dollar overdependence as a sign of progress, it drew suspicion from private-sector analysts as to whether assets in other currencies, or even gold, could provide the same security and liquidity as US dollar-denominated assets.

Aidan Yao, senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers, argued that U.S. assets, particularly U.S. Treasury securities, are “the most liquid and safe assets in the world,” and so cutting their share in the portfolio was, by definition, a risky move.

“China does have to pay a price — compromising liquidity and safety of their portfolio — for diversifying away from the U.S. dollar,” Yao said.

SAFE revealed details of its foreign reserve management only over the decade to 2014. Ding Shuang, chief China economist at Standard Chartered, said it would have been hard for China to cut the weighting of its U.S. dollar assets further after that point, since it was already quite low.

“There is no alternative market that can offer China the ease and safety in trading that is as deep and broad as the US dollar market,” Ding said.

If SAFE maintained the same weighting after 2014, China would have about $1.8 trillion of its reserves in U.S. dollar assets today. U.S. Treasury data showed that China held $1.1 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities as of the end of May.

David Chin, founder of Basis Point Consulting, a financial consultancy based in Sydney, questioned why SAFE did not disclose anything about its foreign exchange reserves management after 2014.

The exact investment composition of China’s foreign exchange reserves remains shrouded in secrecy, making it nearly impossible to see the true risk and performance at the moment, he added.

“The real question to be asked is: Why not give us figures up to 2018 or even 2017? They already have that [data] so that would be a stronger show of increased transparency,” Chin said.

Nevertheless, analysts welcomed SAFE’s disclosures as a step toward greater transparency. Before Sunday little was known about how SAFE managed China’s reserves.

Instead, every January 1 over the last decade China’s central bank chief paid a visit to a drab building within a stone’s throw of the People’s Bank of China’s head office in Beijing.

“In the face of complicated and changing international financial markets, a diversified investment strategy has been implemented for China’s foreign exchange reserves that has achieved steady returns,” the agency said.

The agency reminded readers that it had won two “excellence awards” from Asia Investor in 2014. Asia Investor is a quarterly publication by UK-based publishing group Haymarket Media.

SAFE, an arm of the central bank that reports directly to China’s top leadership, highlighted in its annual report two main strategies used to manage the country’s reserves.

One is “diversification” of assets into multiple currencies, resulting in the sharp decline reliance on U.S. dollar-denominated assets. The other is a rigid risk-control process based on the twin principles of maintaining value while maintaining zero tolerance for major risks.

SAFE said it has five layers of checks for its assets — risk policies, risk assessment and monitoring, compliance inspection, internal auditing, and external auditing — designed to manage all types of risks, including “credit risks, market risks, liquidity risks, operational risks, and other risks.”

China’s foreign exchange reserves ballooned from $51.6 billion at the end of 1994 to a peak of nearly $4 trillion by mid-2014. The reserves dropped by about $1 trillion in the year following China’s stock market rout in the summer of 2015, causing Beijing to impose draconian capital account controls over outbound payments and investments.

While the reserve size was stabilised at about $3 trillion over the past three years, the size is unlikely to grow significantly, as China’s current account surplus is projected to shrink.

At the same time, China’s efforts at making the yuan an international currency have achieved only limited success. The yuan’s share of total reserves held by global central banks remained a modest 1.84 percent in the first quarter of 2019, well below the dollar’s 58.14 per cent, the euro’s 19.03 percent, and the yen’s 4.94 percent.

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

Larry Lindsay blasts Trump with his call to devalue the dollar

(Lindsay/CNBC/GATA)

Summers blasts Trump: ‘No nation can devalue its way to prosperity’

 Section: 

The path to prosperity is suppressing the gold price — right, Mr. Summers?

* * *

Larry Summers Blasts Trump on the Dollar: ‘No Nation Can Devalue Its Way to Prosperity’

By Jessica Bursztynsky
CNBC, New York
Tuesday, July 30, 2019

The United States cannot devalue the dollar to gain prosperity, former Treasury secretary and ardent Trump critic Larry Summers told CNBC on Tuesday.

“When you signal you don’t want your currency to be strong, when you trash your own country for competitiveness, you raise the borrowing costs for every American homeowner and every American company,” Summers said, adding that such a move would “make the economy less competitive and less efficient.”

Summers was reacting to reports that President Donald Trump asked aides to find a way to weaken the dollar as a way to boost the economy before the 2020 presidential election. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/30/ex-obama-advisor-trump-devalue-us-dollar…

* * *

end

Finally they lifted the ban from exploring for gold in Alaska’s Bristol Bay.  Northern Dynasty has a potential of 100 billion dollar gold deposit

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Veto lifted from Alaska gold mine project with as much as $100 billion of metal

 Section: 

By Jennifer A Dlouhy
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, July 30, 2019

The Environmental Protection Agency is scrapping proposed restrictions on mining operations in Alaska’s Bristol Bay, dealing a victory to Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd., which is hoping to tap a $100 billion gold deposit in the region.

The move does not guarantee that the U.S. government will issue a permit for the company’s planned Pebble Mine. But the decision removes a major barrier to the project, which has been thwarted by Obama-era water pollution limitations proposed in 2014 but never finalized. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-30/veto-lifted-for-alask.

end

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8827/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8902   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 19.83 POINTS OR 0.67%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 368.75 POINTS OR 1.31%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 187.78 POINTS OR 0.87%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.10/Euro FALLS TO 1.1146

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.39 and Brent: 65.03

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.41%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.56% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.32%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.97: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.03

3k Gold at $1431.90 silver at: 16.47   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 5/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.45

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.56 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9899 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1037 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.41%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.05% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.57%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.5315..

With All Eyes On The Fed, US Futures Defy Global Gloom After Disappointing End To Trade Talks

The unexpectedly early end to the latest round of trade talks in Shanghai, indicating that any goodwill to restore US-China trade is now dead and buried, weighed on global stocks on Wednesday ahead of the highly anticipated Fed meeting, even as US equity futures levitated higher on the back of strong results and even stronger guidance from Apple (which is expected to surpass a $1 trillion market cap again today), with Treasury rates unchanged, the dollar holding firm and Britain’s pound subdued amid rising fears of no-deal Brexit.

 

Combative warnings from President Trump cast a shadow over the day’s other main event, as the Sino-U.S. trade talks concluded in Shanghai on Wednesday, with Beijing attributing the lack of progress to Washington’s flip-flopping.

“Trade talks have finished without an agreement,” said Justin Onuekwusi, fund manager at Legal & General Investment Management. “Of course, it doesn’t help that almost as a prelude to the conversation you get tweets that are quite antagonistic,” he said, referring to a tweet by Trump warning China against waiting out his current presidential term before finalizing a trade deal.

The fresh trade tensions come ahead a FOMC meeting which is expected to see interest rates reduced by 25 basis points in its first rate cut in more than a decade. Yet the focus is on whether this will be a “one and done”, or Powell will leave the door open for further easing to shore up the world’s largest economy in the face of slowing global growth and the fallout from trade conflicts.

A 25bps rate cut is certain as is another 25 basis point reduction by September – with the market pricing in a 20% chance of a 50bps rate cut today – but what will matter is whether this is seen as a recessionary cut (validated by a 50bps cut), or an “insurance”, or precautionary easing. How Powell frames today’s move will determine if stocks will rise or fall before the end of the day. Expectations for Fed easing helped lift the S&P 500 index 2.4% so far this month.

“Exactly what happens today is far from a foregone conclusion,” said Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid. “Although the Fed have given no real encouragement to the notion of a 50 basis point (bps) cut it’s worth noting that the last time the Fed began a series of rate cuts, in September 2007, their opening move was a 50 bps cut, and a similar 50 bps cut happened when the Fed began cutting in January 2001.”

Trump on Tuesday reiterated his call for the Fed to make a large interest rate cut, saying he was disappointed in the U.S. central bank and that it had put him at a disadvantage by not acting sooner.

“The bond and equity markets have fully priced in a cut,” Paul Brain, head of fixed income at Newton Investment Management, said in a note. “On balance, there may be some that are disappointed by the size of the cut and the subsequent messaging, but once that is out of the way there will be a realization that rates are heading lower.”

Until the 2pm FOMC announcement, global stocks were biding their time, with the MSCI world index and Europe’s pan regional Stoxx 600 slipping 0.1%, the latter flirting with a fresh one-month low and decidedly underperforming the S&P500, as worries over trade wars and Brexit offset encouraging signals from the earnings season.  The Stoxx Europe 600 index struggled for direction amid mixed company reports, with personal and household-goods shares among the biggest losers as L’Oreal dropped after posting disappointing sales figures. Construction companies led gains after upbeat results from Vinci. London’s FTSE fell 0.3% while Frankfurt stocks gained 0.2% and Paris was treading water.

In focus were banks, with strong results from French lender BNP Paribas and Switzerland’s Credit Suisse countering a poor report from British bank Lloyds. Also of note is the sharp rebound in German retail sales, which surged 3.5% M/M, smashing expectations of a modest 0.5% increase, and the biggest monthly increase since 2006.

 

Asian stocks ex-Japan fell to a six-week low with China mainland stocks down nearly 1% and Hong Kong tumbling 1.3% as China and the U.S. concluded their Shanghai trade talks without signaling any progress and disappointment among investors with corporate earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.8% to the lowest level since June 19. Technology was the worst-performing group Wednesday, mainly dragged by Samsung Electronics as the company reported lower profit and said it faces uncertainty due to growing macroeconomic issues. Hong Kong market closed early Tuesday as a storm struck the city. Philippines’ PSEi Index fell 1.3%, led by basic materials companies. Elsewhere, India’s Sensex traded little changed.

Overnight, Chinese data showing factory activity shrank for the third month in a row in July added to the somber mood.

Seemingly oblivious to the global equity woes, US futures pointed to main indexes opening higher as General Electric delivered strong results. On Tuesday, major Wall Street stock averages ended slightly lower with the S&P 500 losing 0.26%, however, momentum reversed after the closing bell when Apple shares soared 4.2% as its Q3 earnings beat estimates and CEO Tim Cook cited “marked improvement in Greater China”.

In currency markets, the dollar index traded flat around 98.064 after pulling back from a two-month high of 98.206 touched on Tuesday. The dollar index was set for a monthly gain of 1.4%, its best since last October.  The greenback was also steady against the yen and the euro, with the former undermined on Tuesday by the BOJ’s decision to refrain from expanding stimulus though it committed to doing so “without hesitation” if required. Most other currencies traded in narrow ranges before the Fed meeting.

Meanwhile the British pound hovered near a 28-month low hit the previous day on growing concerns about a disorderly Brexit. GBPUSD recovered from the drop seen in the past two sessions but was still set for a 4% decline this month, its worst showing since 2016. The Australian dollar climbed against all its major peers as headline inflation was higher than the estimate.

Treasuries were modestly higher, led by front-end ahead of the Fed’s expected rate cut. Volumes were light during Asia session and European morning with several additional key events ahead including July ADP employment change, quarterly refunding announcement and month-end. The 10-year yield was at 2.05% after a 3bps decline since July 25. The TSY curve had a small steepening bias, with yields richer by 1.2bp to 2bp across the curve with 10-year ~2.047%, lower by 1bp; Around the world, gilts underperformed, cheaper by 1.5bp vs. Treasuries, as sterling stabilizes following recent sell-off, while bunds keep pace.

In geopolitics, North Korea fired multiple projectiles early on Wednesday which was said to be 2 short-range ballistic missiles and a different type of weapon than previous launches, Following the launch, South Korea convened a national security meeting, while Japan Defense Ministry said no ballistic missiles reached Japan’s territory or exclusive economic zone and sees no immediate impact on Japan’s security from the North Korea launch.

In commodity markets, crude oil futures rose for the 5th straight day, buoyed by a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories. U.S. WTI crude gained 28 cents to $58.34 per barrel while Brent crude futures LCOc1 added 48 cents to $65.2. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) CMCU3 was almost unchanged at $5,950 a ton.

Expected data include mortgage applications. CME Group, Carlyle Group and Spotify are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,019.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.06% to 385.36
  • MXAP down 0.6% to 158.48
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 519.26
  • Nikkei down 0.9% to 21,521.53
  • Topix down 0.7% to 1,565.14
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 27,777.75
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 2,932.51
  • Sensex up 0.06% to 37,418.69
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 6,812.56
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,024.55
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to -0.406%
  • Euro down 0.08% to $1.1146
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $65.16/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 8.7 bps to 1.308%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to 0.324%
  • Brent Futures up 0.9% to $65.16/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.02% to $1,430.53
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.06% to 98.11

Top Overnight News

  • China and the U.S. concluded a new round of trade talks in Shanghai on Wednesday following a hiatus of almost three months, with little immediate evidence of progress being made toward ending their year-long dispute
  • The talks come at a time when President Trump lashed out at China for what he said is its unwillingness to buy American agricultural products and said it continues to “rip off” the U.S.
  • A tropical storm shut Hong Kong’s financial markets for the first time in almost two years, adding chaos to a city which has been wracked by protests for weeks
  • German unemployment rose and demand for new workers dwindled, a sign that weakening economic momentum is starting to affect the labor market. Spanish economic growth slowed more than expected in the second quarter, adding another layer of gloom to an increasingly fragile situation in the euro region
  • “We now have a fresh approach to negotiating a deal and are well prepared to leave the EU,” U.K. Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay said on Twitter, adding that he was confident as two new Brexit committees “are now up and running”
  • The White House is monitoring what a senior administration official called a congregation of Chinese forces on Hong Kong’s border
  • North Korea fired multiple unidentified projectiles off its east coast early Wednesday, Yonhap reports, citing the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff

Asian equity markets followed suit to the negative performance seen across global peers amid trade concerns following US President Trump’s Twitter rant regarding China, while the looming FOMC decision, mixed Chinese PMI data and earnings deluge added to the cautious tone. ASX 200 (-0.5%) was dragged lower by losses in utilities and financials but with downside stemmed by strength in the energy sector after a rally in oil prices, while Nikkei 225 (-0.9%) suffered the ill-effects of a firmer currency with the best and worst performers in Tokyo driven by their quarterly results. KOSPI (-0.7%) weakened after North Korea conducted another launch which was said to be a new type of weapon and with earnings also in focus including index heavyweight Samsung Electronics which showed final Q2 oper. profit and revenue topped preliminary results but still suffered a 56% Y/Y drop in profits. Conversely, its main rival Apple saw a different fate with the US tech giant gaining around 4.5% after-hours due to a beat on both top and bottom lines and although it missed on iPhone sales its revenue forecast for next quarter surpassed Street estimates. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.7%) conformed to the wide risk averse tone after President Trump’s recent criticism on China and warning of a much tougher deal if China holds out until after the next US elections, with participants also digesting mixed Chinese PMI data in which the headline Manufacturing PMI beat expectations but remained below the 50 benchmark level and Non-Manufacturing PMI missed forecasts. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded relatively flat and were only marginally supported by the risk averse tone as well as the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 1.24tln of JGBs with 1yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • China, U.S. Trade Talks End Early in Shanghai
  • Hong Kong Rioting Charges Signal Harsher Line Against Protesters
  • Hintze’s CQS Strikes Deal With Asia Managers in Regional Push

Major European indices are mixed [Euro Stoxx 50 Unch], as this morning saw the early finish of US-China trade talks with initial reports indicating that the talks ended with no sign of a breakthrough after an earnings dominated morning for indices. Sectors are also mixed with no standout sector at present. In terms of this mornings earnings, L’Oreal (-3.8%) are under pressure after missing on sales growth in-spite of the Co’s CEO noting that H1 was the strongest in terms of like-for-like growth in decades; notably the Co. also announced a EUR 750mln share buyback. Sticking with the CAC 40 (+0.1%) this morning also saw earnings from Airbus (+0.8%) who beat on Q2 revenue and confirmed FY guidance; recently, the Co. also benefitting recently from WSJ reports indicating that internal risk analysis at Boeing (BA) showed the likelihood was high of further cockpit emergencies following the first crash. Elsewhere, of note for banking names Credit Suisse (+4.2%) are firmer after beating on Q2 net revenue and net income as are BNP Paribas (+3.5%) post earnings where the Co’s Q2 revenue beat on consensus.

Top European News

  • Salvini Weighs Early 2020 Vote, Govt Breakup in Fall: Repubblica
  • Polish Inflation Unexpectedly Surges to Highest Level Since 2012
  • Next Surges as E-Commerce Sales Boost Fuels Guidance Upgrade
  • DUP’s Foster Says Ireland Must ‘Get Real’ on Deal: Brexit Update

In FX, AUD, NZD – The Aussie stands as this morning’s G10 winner amid promising domestic inflation data which follows the RBA’s back-to-back rate cuts since June. CPI Y/Y rose to 1.6% (Prev. 1.3%) in Q2 but remains below the Central Bank’s 2-3% target. In terms of implications on monetary policy, the CB is likely to stand pat on rates for now in order to examine further effects of its recent rate cuts and the government’s tax cut package. AUD/USD trades closer to the top of the intraday range thus far, after testing 0.6900 to the upside. Elsewhere, the Kiwi is lacklustre after the ANZ business confidence further deteriorated alongside the activity outlook. NZD/USD hovers just above the 0.6600 mark having visited a current intra-day low of 0.6590.

  • DXY, CNY – Relatively side-ways trade for the DXY (for now) heading into the FOMC’s latest policy decision (full preview available in the Research Suite) and with little impetus from the fallout of US-China talks in Shanghai. The initial reports/commentary on the meeting provided little substance. Although no breakthrough was reached (as expected), discussions are said to have been constructive and future talks between the nations will happen. DXY remains flat above 98.00 having earlier tested the figure to the downside. Meanwhile, the CNH also remains tentative and within a narrow range vs. the Buck after having visited its 50 DMA (6.8967) at the European open.
  • GBP, EUR – Overall little changed thus far with the Pound capped amid fears of a Halloween no-deal crash and tomorrow’s BoE policy decision and QIR (full preview available in the Research Suite). GBP/USD continues to meander sub-1.2200, and as a reminder, the following support levels are still in play: 1.2110 (March 17 low), 1.2085 (Jan 17 low), 1.2000 (psychological) and 1.1841 (2016 flash crash low). Elsewhere The EUR remains flat within a 20-pip intraday range as mostly in-line inflation, growth and unemployment metrics failed to spur a reaction ahead of the FOMC’s policy decision. EUR/USD trades just below 1.1150 ahead of minor support levels at 1.1133/14/21/01, although large option expiries (1.3bln at 1.1145 and 1.2bln at 1.1100-05) may keep the pair contained heading into today’s NY cut.
  • EM – Another day of gains for the Lira as traders anticipated the CBRT’s QIR to signal further normalisation in its domestic economy, in which it delivered. The Central Bank cut its 2019 year-end inflation forecast mid-point to 13.9% from 14.6% whilst its 2020 figure was maintained at 8.2%, adding that the economic outlook has brightened compared to the April release. USD/TRY breached its 200 DMA (5.5600) to the downside and took out a support level at 5.5500 to print a low of 5.5150 ahead of a Fib support at 5.4172.

In commodities, the oil complex has held onto most of its API-induced gains with WTI futures hovering just below USD 58.50/bbl and Brent north of USD 65/bbl. The report showed that crude inventories fell by 6.02mln barrels over the last week, a larger decline than the expected 2.60mln barrel drawdown. Traders today will be eyeing two events as catalysts: 1) The weekly EIA report for confirmation of the decline in stocks, 2) the FOMC’s policy decision for any Dollar or sentiment-induced action. Elsewhere, sources stated that Libya’s El-Sharara oilfield (300k BPD) has halted production amid a valve closure on a pipeline, although it is not clear how long the closures could last. Of note, WaPo reported that the Trump administration is set to announce that it will waiver five difference nuclear related sanctions on Iran, although it is currently unclear whether the waivers will be oil related. Looking at metals, gold and copper remain flat, as usually the case ahead of the FOMC’s decision.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 150,000, prior 102,000
  • 8:30am: Employment Cost Index, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%
  • 9:45am: MNI Chicago PMI, est. 51, prior 49.7
  • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

So today is the long-awaited Fed decision day, where markets are fully pricing in what is expected to be the first rate cut since December 2008. But exactly what happens today is far from a foregone conclusion, as the question still on investors’ minds is by how much the Fed will cut, and whether there’ll be any messages about the future path of rates going forward. The market currently fully prices a 25bp cut and implies an 16% chance of a larger 50bp cut. Although the Fed have given no real encouragement to the notion of a 50bps cut it’s worth noting that the last time the Fed began a series of rate cuts, in September 2007, their opening move was a 50bp cut, and a similar 50bp cut happened when the Fed began cutting in January 2001. Rates were higher back then though. The last time the Fed started an easing cycle with a 25bps cut was in September 1998, when they ultimately cut rates 3 times and successfully prolonged the expansion until the recession in 2001.

In their preview last Friday (link here ), our US economists predict a 25bp cut, but they say that “the key question is how Chair Powell and the Committee frame the narrative for further easing through year end.” With this in mind, investors will be paying close attention to Chair Powell’s press conference. Our economists write that they “do not expect the Committee to pre-commit to another cut in September”, but instead the amount of further easing is going to be data dependent. Will a market hungry for stimulus accept this?

Indeed we’re at a fascinating juncture in markets. It feels like the global macro risks are building for late summer/autumn (hard Brexit, US/China trade uncertainty, US/EU trade issues to come before year-end and global manufacturing effectively in recession) but all of us are reluctant to fight the central banks. Is this a trap? Indeed even our traditionally bullish Binky Chadha has some reservations about the risk/reward from this starting point. In his piece last week ( link ) he suggested that there have been 19 Fed easing cycles since the 1950s and this one fits almost exactly inline timing wise with the average slowdown in ISMs and LEIs through history. However, where it differs markedly is that only once (in 1995) has a rate cut occurred when the S&P 500 was around record highs. On average, the market has peaked 4 months before the cutting cycle started and was down a median -12% in between the two points. Also, he pointed out that 9 of the 19 rate cutting cycles failed to avert a recession. The recessions typically saw a -27% peak to trough drawdown in the S&P (mostly after the first cut) and on average bottomed 5 months after the Fed started cutting. Of the 10 that didn’t end in recessions, growth rebounded quickly – on average after 2-3 months – and although the S&P still fell around -7%, within 6 months of the first cut they had gained 12% from the lows and sat comfortably above pre-cut levels. So history would suggest quite a binary outcome from here and based on this alone one would have to say that the risk/reward doesn’t look particularly compelling especially as we’re at record highs. So don’t fight the Fed is a famous refrain but nearly 50% of the time they’ve been powerless to stop negative economic and market momentum in a growth slowdown.

Ahead of today’s FOMC decision, President Trump said yesterday that “I would like to see a large cut” in rates, maintaining his calls for easier monetary policy from the Fed. Separately, comments via Twitter from the President sent S&P futures lower before the US open, as he said that “China is doing very badly, worst year in 27 – was supposed to start buying our agricultural product now – no signs that they are doing so. This is the problem with China, they just don’t come through.” In response, The People’s Daily – the official paper of the Communist Party, said overnight that China has no motive to “rip off” the US and has never done so, and China won’t make concessions against its principles on trade. All this is occurring as the US and China have kick started a new round of trade talks in Shanghai. Watch this space for any headlines.

After this set back pre-market, US equities didn’t fall any further during the actual session but failed to get back to flat after trading in a relative narrow band through the day. The S&P 500 (-0.26%), NASDAQ (-0.24%), and DOW (-0.09%) all ended lower, though US bank stocks did gain +0.47% in contrast to their European cousins (more below). Fixed incomes moves were also muted, with 2- and 10-year treasury yields -1.4bps and -0.9bps lower, while HY credit spreads mirrored the moves in equities, widening +3.5bps. Earnings news was again mixed, with Under Armor (-12.28%) underperforming after signaling for a revenue decline from its core North American market. Procter and Gamble (+3.82%) and Merck (+0.96%) both gained after beating analyst expectations. After markets closed, Apple reported better-than-expected revenue and traded +4.42% overnight. Though iPhone sales and revenue disappointed, the company performed better via its mac, iPad and wearable business lines. Apple also reported gross margins at the top end of analyst estimates, illustrating that they continue to generate growth without lowering prices.

Meanwhile in Europe it was a gloomy day for equities, with the STOXX 600 falling -1.47%, its worst fall in 12 weeks and the index’s lowest close in a month. The continent’s indexes were lower across the board, with the DAX (-2.18% and worst day for 6 months), CAC 40 (-1.61%) and the FTSE MIB (-1.99%) all losing ground. Banks in particular suffered, with the STOXX Banks down –2.90%, bringing the index’s falls over the last two days to -3.77%, the biggest two-day fall since May. It’s not 100% clear to me why yesterday was such a bad day but weak Euro area data (see below), disappointing earnings, and perhaps worries about US/China trades talks may have weighed.

Bonds advanced for the most part, with ten-year bund yields matching their record low from earlier this month at -0.399% after falling -0.8bps yesterday. Spreads widened however, with Italian ten-year spreads over bunds up +2.1bps, while European HY spreads were up +6bps. Gilts rallied -1.9bps as fears of a hard Brexit continued to build.

The FTSE 100 outperformed again, only down -0.52%, although as before this was due to sterling’s continued slide, with the currency down -0.52% (trading largely unchanged this morning) against the dollar as it fell to fresh two-year low (only 0.89% off 34 year lows) as investor’s concerns over a no-deal Brexit outcome continued. The falls came as Prime Minister Johnson spoke to the Irish Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, with a press release from Downing Street saying that “the Prime Minister made clear that the UK will be leaving the EU on October 31, no matter what”. He is also making it quite clear that he won’t sit down with EU leaders unless they agree to re-open the Withdrawal Agreement – something they have shown no appetite in doing. So unless someone blinks, or Parliament finds a way (including an election) to reverse course, then we are heading for a hard Brexit.

Overnight in Asia we have seen China’s July PMIs with manufacturing printing at 49.7 (vs. 49.6 expected), marking it the third consecutive month in contractionary territory. There was improvement in conditions for large enterprises (at 50.7 vs 49.9 last month) while small (at 48.2 vs 48.3 last month) and medium (at 48.7 vs. 49.1 last month) enterprises continued to deteriorate. The new export orders component rose to 46.9 (vs. 46.3 last month) but continues to remain well below 50. The services PMI came in at 53.7 (vs. 54.0 expected) bringing the composite PMI to 53.1 (vs. 53.0 last month). After the official PMIs, the focus is likely to turn to China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI tomorrow which focuses more on private sector/SME and is expected to print at 49.5. Meanwhile, China’s political leadership has announced its priorities for 2H 2019 by pledging to tackle ongoing tensions over trade “effectively” while offering incremental additions to stimulus policies.

Staying with Asia, Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam said yesterday that there is “no room for optimism for the second quarter and the entire year,” on GDP growth given the US-China trade war and other “uncertainties,” while pledging to “spare no efforts” to deal with anti-government protests that risk harming the city’s growth. Hong Kong’s GDP data is due today at 4:30 pm (Hong Kong time). Elsewhere, this morning North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast, conducting its second such test in a week ahead of US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo’s visit to Asia. South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo said in remarks after the launch that “If they threaten us and provoke us, North Korea’s regime and the North Korean military is with no doubt defined as our ‘enemy.’” This suggests that such actions could cause Seoul to reconsider its decision to downgrade the threat level of its neighbour.

This morning in Asia markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (-0.74%), Hang Seng (-1.11%), Shanghai Comp (-0.53%) and Kospi (-0.15%) all down. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.23% while WTI crude oil prices are up +0.67% on a report from the American Petroleum Institute that US crude inventories dropped by 6.02 million barrels last week.

In terms of data yesterday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence came in well-above expectations at 135.7 in July (vs. 125.0 expected), the highest level in 8 months. The present situation reading also rose to 170.9 while the expectations measure rose to 112.2. Also encouragingly, the prior month’s readings on each of those metrics were revised several points higher. The closely-watched labour differential, which is a good leading indicator for the labour market, rebounded +5.2pts after last month’s sharp drop, approaching again its highest level of the expansion. Separately, the core PCE inflation figure for June came in at 1.6%, consistent with DB econ’s forecast but 0.1pp below consensus. Our economists also noted that, as a function of revisions, the trend over the last few months has weakened while 2017-2018 looks even stronger. This gives further ammunition to the FOMC’s doves at today’s meeting.

In Europe however, ahead of today’s Q2 GDP and July inflation release for the Eurozone, the releases only added to concerns over the economic slowdown. French GDP in Q2 grew by a smaller-than-anticipated 0.2% qoq (vs. 0.3% expected), while the Swedish economy actually contracted by -0.1% (vs. 0.3% growth expected). The European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the Eurozone fell to 102.7 in July, down from 103.3 in June and its lowest level since March 2016, and the sectoral breakdowns didn’t offer much hope either, as the industrial confidence reading fell to -7.4, its lowest since July 2013, and services confidence fell to 10.6, its lowest since September 2016. And to finish off the gloomy picture, Germany’s GfK consumer confidence reading fell to 9.7, the lowest figure in over two years, while German HICP inflation fell to 1.1% in July, the lowest since November 2016. The ECB and market tends to focus on the HICP, which is used for German inflation-linked bonds, though it has different weights from CPI (which surprised to the upside at 1.7%).

Turning to the day ahead, the outcome of the much-anticipated FOMC meeting is obviously the highlight for investors. It’s also a very big day for data releases, with the highlights being the advance reading of Eurozone GDP in Q2, along with the June unemployment rate and July CPI. In addition, there are German retail sales for June and the unemployment change for July, Italian Q2 GDP and unemployment for June, French CPI inflation for July, Canadian GDP for May, and from the US the MNI Chicago PMI for July. In terms of earnings, the main releases tomorrow include General Electric, Airbus and Lloyds Banking Group, and we have the second night of Democratic primary debates.

end

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.83 POINTS OR 0.67%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 368.75 POINTS OR 1.31%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 1876.78 POINTS OR 0.87%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .46%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8827 /Oil UP TO 58.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.03 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8827 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8902 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

This is dangerous! Mainland China gathers forces on the Hong Kong border

(zerohedge)

Crackdown Coming? China Gathers Forces On Hong Kong Border Amid Unrest

Massive anti-Beijing protests which have gripped Hong Kong over the past month, and have become increasingly violent as both an overwhelmed local police force and counter-protesters have hit back with force, are threatening to escalate on a larger geopolitical scale after the White House weighed in this week.

With China fast losing patience, there are new reports of a significant build-up of Chinese security forces on Hong Kong’s border, as Bloomberg reports:

The White House is monitoring what a senior administration official called a congregation of Chinese forces on Hong Kong’s border.

 

Riot police fire tear gas to disperse protesters in Hong Kong on Sunday. Image source: EPA-EFE 

From nearly the start of the protests which began over a proposed extradition bill (which would see Hong Kong citizens under legal accusation potentially extradited to the mainland) interpreted as major Chinese overreach inside historically semi-autonomous Hong Kong, officials in Beijing have suggested an “external plot” afoot, more recently alleging the hidden hand of the United States.

The latest charge made Tuesday by mainland government officials is that the still escalating Hong Kong unrest is the “creation of the US” — something which the admin official speaking under anonymity to Bloomberg firmly denied.

On Monday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said during a press interview that “protest is appropriate” and that “we hope the Chinese will do the right thing” regarding respecting Hong Kong’s historic “one country, two systems” status. This was enough to elicit a quick response alleging US meddling out of Beijing on Tuesday.

Kyle Bass

@Jkylebass

“The White House is monitoring a buildup of Chinese forces on Hong Kong’s border, a senior administration official said.” Here we go..the moment the PLA army marches from Shenzhen, it’s over. China’s army is going to invade HK. It’s inevitable.

“It’s clear that Mr. Pompeo has put himself in the wrong position and still regards himself as the head of the CIA,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at a news briefing“He might think that violent activities in Hong Kong are reasonable because after all, this is the creation of the U.S.”

China’s position has been to recently declare the protests going “far beyond” what’s legal and “peaceful” amid clashes with police.

 

People’s Liberation Army soldiers at Stonecutters Island naval base in Hong Kong last month. Source: NYT/Reuters

Last week Chinese military leaders hinted that People’s Liberation Army troops could be used to quell the protests following widespread reports of vandal attacks on the central government’s liaison office in Hong Kong, according to The New York Times. Ministry of National Defense, Senior Col. Wu Qian, said at the time, “That absolutely cannot be tolerated.”

For now, few details are known concerning the reported “build-up” of Chinese forces on the border, which could consist of military forces, as Bloomberg added to its report:

The nature of the Chinese buildup wasn’t clear; the official said that units of the Chinese military or armed police had gathered at the border with Hong Kong. The official briefed reporters on condition he not be identified.

The timing of the back and forth unsubstantiated allegations is interesting especially in light of President Trump seeking to reinvigorate stalled trade deal negotiations with China, currently being conducted in Shanghai following the ceasefire to the trade war.

end
The engine for global growth in China and when we see Chinese Mfg PMI in contraction and service PMI at 2019 lows, you know that the world is in trouble
(zerohedge)

China Manufacturing PMI Stuck In Contraction As Services Hit 2019 Lows

Despite record credit injections and endless easing, China’s economic survey data goes from bad to worse.

  • While China Manufacturing PMI managed a de minimus gain from 49.4 to 49.7, it remains in contractionary territory for the 7th month in the last 9.
  • China Services PMI continued to slide, back to its lowest since 2018.

Confirming global weakness seen in Japanese and European PMIs.

In a seemingly desperate reach, Bloomberg notes that the stronger result (49.4 to 49.7) signaled some optimism is emerging in the Chinese economy in spite of lingering uncertainty over trade talks and domestic demand.

PMI data improves as “the government’s tax cuts have helped improve growth slightly,” Yao Shaohua, economist at ABCI Securities Co. in Hong Kong

Under the hood things are less rosy with Manufacturing New Orders and Employment both contracting…

And Non-Manufacturing Employment is contracting…

We are less enthusiastic as July has more working days than June, which could also have helped lift production.

end
My goodness, that did not take long!! The USA China trade talks collapse after half a day of negotiations
(zerohedge)

US-China Trade Talks Collapse After Half A Day Of Negotiations

That didn’t take long.

After roughly half-a-day of negotiations, the US trade delegation has broken off talks with its Chinese counterpart and is already on its way back to Washington, a sign that no new progress was made, and that trade talks between the US and China remain at an impasse.

According to BloombergUS delegates including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer wrapped up talks with Vice Premier Liu He and their other Chinese counterparts on Wednesday afternoon at the Xijiao State Guest Hotel in Shanghai, according to a pool report.

As the talks ended, China’s Ministry of Foreign Trade issues a response to President Trump, who has been warning the Chinese not to keep stalling on the talks.

In response to a question about Trump’s tweets, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said that although she was not aware of the latest developments during the talks, it was clear it was the US that continued to “flip flop.”

“I believe it doesn’t make any sense for the US to exercise its campaign of maximum pressure at this time. It’s pointless to tell others to take medication when you’re the one who is sick,” Hua said.

The People’s Daily, mouthpiece of the Communist Party, also responded to Trump on Wednesday with a commentary saying that China has no motive to “rip off” the U.S. and has never done so, and China won’t make concessions against its principles on trade.

This week’s meetings, the first in-person trade talks since a G20 truce last month, amounted to a working dinner on Tuesday at Shanghai’s historic riverfront Fairmont Peace Hotel and a half-day of negotiations on Wednesday, Reuters reports. Neither team commented publicly.

Liu He bid farewell to his US counterparts as their motorcade pulled away from the Guest Hotel following a group photo. The talks concluded at around 1:45 pm local time – roughly 30 minutes before they were scheduled to begin.

Of course, the latest round of talks took place against a jarring backdrop following a fresh outburst by Trump on twitter, who, as delegates gathered Tuesday, slammed China’s unwillingness to buy American agricultural products and said it continues to “rip off” the U.S.

The Chinese apparently didn’t make any new concessions to the US, despite last night’s PMI report which showed that China’s factory activity continued to shrink in July, a sign that the trade dispute is taking a serious toll on the Chinese economy.

What’s worse, the talks were supposed to focus on “goodwill” gestures, like the agricultural purchases promised by China, and the rollback of sanctions on Huawei promised by Trump.Apparently, the two sides are still at an impasse regarding these two issues. These issues, as Reuters reports, are “somewhat removed” from the more core US complaints in the trade dispute, including US demands surrounding forced technology transfers and state subsidies.

Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of China’s state-run Global Times tabloid, wrote on Twitter that the negotiators had “efficient and constructive” exchanges.

“The two sides discussed increasing purchase of U.S. farm products and the U.S. side agreed to create favorable conditions for it. They will hold future talks,” Hu said, without elaborating.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Based on what I know, Chinese and US negotiators had an efficient and constructive deep exchange on Wednesday. The two sides discussed increasing purchase of US farm products and the US side agreed to create favorable conditions for it. They will hold future talks.

Earlier, the Global Times said if Washington still holds the illusion that Beijing will somehow cave in and compromise on issues concerning sovereignty, “then no deal is fine”.

Of course, few analysts expected this week’s talks – the first round of live talks since the second trade truce was struck between Trump and President Xi in Osaka – to yield much progress. But now that they’ve collapsed, does the Fed have the green light to deliver a 50 bp rate cut?

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Bill Blain discusses two major issues before us:

  1. Brexit and the Irish backstop
  2.  China/USA and its non trade deal

and it is these two factors which will cause the Fed to lower rates

(Bill Blain)

Blain: “Trump Is Acting Like He Holds All The Cards. He Doesn’t”

Blain’s morning porridge, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

“Weebles Wobble but they don’t fall down..”

I oft get accused of being too bearish, too miserable, and too gloomy.  That’s not true!  I’m a very happy, smiley, even jovial chap.  I’ve learnt it’s better to look at the facts, assume the worst and not be surprised. 30 plus years in markets also teaches me no matter how awful it looks, it’s never as bad as it might be, and it always gets better.  So being aware of just how bad it might get, rather than fooling ourselves how good we hope it might be, seems the best plan.

And, on the subject of self-delusional behaviour, from today “Blain’s Brexit-Watch” will be a regular part of the daily porridge – at the bottom, after the Fun-Stuff.

The Fun Stuff today will be the Fed decision.  Just how will the Fed frame a 25 basis point ease? Regular readers will know my view is a Fed ease is a pointless sop. The Feb will ease because they expect a now pretty-much unavoidable trade war and global slowdown, and really ought to be seen to be prepared for it.

The real issue isn’t even why we’re heading for global slowdown.  These include Donald Trump’s tweets y’day accusing the Chinese of reneging on their “agreement” to buy more US agricultural products – effectively scuppering the resumed trade talks before they started.  (Serious question to my US Republican friends: are you even remotely concerned about Donald’s increasing randomness?)

The real threat is China’s response.  Thus far they have avoided saying anything that might overtly damage the current meetings, but equally they made clear they are not going to respond to threats. Yesterday’s responses were coded, but re Trade they effectively asked what “agreement to buy US agricultural products” is Trump talking about?  At the Osaka G20 Trump demanded China bought more from US Farms, but they simply agreed to enter into a new round of talks.  While Trump accuses the world’s second largest and fastest growing economy of lying, Xi is talking about how China must now rely on domestic demand to manage current “risks and challenges”.  Xi is making clear he has no intention of pandering to Trump, and sending a clear signal Beijing is prepared for trade war if Trump presses the button.

Or does China now take the initiative? They are sounding increasingly confident. Yesterday they accused the US of provocation in “creating” the Hong Kong protests. This gets dangerous. Tensions are building over Hong Kong – which I warned could become a flashpoint. Bloomberg reported The White House monitoring a “congregation of Chinese forces” (Military or Armed Police) on the Hong Kong Border. Speaking to a former colleague yesterday, he confirmed a very nervous mood and a general exodus of risk capital to Singapore.  If China intervenes, they are betting Trump the Bully will stomp and shout, but stop short of a meaningful response.

With the election coming up, the risk is Trump feels he can’t afford to not to act.  Then it potentially gets very messy.

Trump is acting like he holds all the cards.  He doesn’t.  He needs to understand who does.  Watch Hong Kong

Interesting results from Apple y’day as they beat expectations.  They are managing the process of switching revenues from the increasingly commoditised mobile phone space into services rather well. They are retaining the allure of the Apple ecosystem, which ensures customer loyalty.  The prices of cheaper models may fall, but they will retain the must have buyers who will pay premium new model prices, and continue to attract wearables and services. It’s interesting Cook declined to say much of commoditising Apple services or wearables by making them more compatible with other operating services.  Disclosure: I am an Appleholic.  I can’t resist.

Blain’s Brexit Watch

As the Sterling Time Bomb ticked down to $1.22, yesterday’s Brexit highlights included the threat of insurrection in the Valleys if the Welsh find it difficult to export Lamb to Europe. “Come home to a real fire… buy a cottage in Wales!”  Folk are getting nervous about weakening sterling, hence the BBC interviews with pensioners in France complaining they can’t go on holiday on their state pension because everything is so expensive.  Wait till import inflation really hits…

Today, Boris is in Norn Iron and about as welcome as a Lannister in Winterfell.

More hopeful were Boris’ comments about staying in the customs union for a time if a Brexit Deal can be struck. It’s a clear signal to Europe. He’s confirming his position clearly – give me some compromise and a deal Parliament can accept, and we can agree a Brexit agreement that benefits everyone.

But yesterday showed Europe aint for turning…

The secret of good comedy is timing..  I was talking to a client about Sterling weakness. We were wondering if Sterling weakness was overplayed, and my chap asked what would be the most obvious buy-signal? I suggested Boris Johnston’s refusal to pick up the phone to Leo Varadkar, the Irish Taoiseach, was telling – I opined the moment to buy Sterling would be Varadkar calling him, a clear sign Ireland, and therefore the EU, understood the dangers of No-Deal and would be willing to compromise on the backstop.

Little did we know that Boris has already called Leo, and the two of them were having a “frank exchange”. Boris politely asked for a renegotiation. Leo said no (actually I suspect it was blunter than that). “Uncompromising” was the official view.

A No Deal causes massive problems if the border is “closed/slowed” for customs. The political dimensions for the UK are enormous; risking the Good Friday peace agreement, encouraging Sinn Fien and its associated Thugocracy to reopen “operations” against the crown, and general distraction.  Nasty, but containable.

For Ireland a No-Deal is a nightmare.  Aside from the freight going across the Norn Iron border, the real issue is 88% of Ireland’s freight goes from Dublin to Hollyhead in Wales then onto Europe. (2017 numbers).  The ports with direct links to the continent are too small to handle Ireland’s trade with the EU – and take double the time of direct UK access to Europe, which is critical for agricultural exports.  There are solutions.  New ships would take time to arrange.  Logistical solutions are possible, such as “Authorised Economic Operators” to allow closed truck access through the UK – it works for Switzerland.  But will an angry UK let them work for Ireland, when Europe won’t let work for the UK?

A deal is much better than no deal.. what’s the current betting Boris can get a deal? 20/1 on a No Deal at the bookies does not equate to the 1 million to one Boris thinks likely….

Oh, what fun…

end

UBS is now set to charge its rich clients (deposits greater than 2 million Swiss francs) a negative interest rate of 3/4%

(zerohedge)

UBS To Start Charging Rich Clients With Negative 0.75% Interest Rate

For years, European banks were leery of passing on the ECB’s negative -0.40% deposit rate to their clients for fears of deposit flight and other unintended consequences, in the process being forced to “eat” the difference and impacting their interest income.

However, after five years of NIRP, and with the ECB set to unleash even more negative rates in the immediate future, one bank has finally taken a stand: according to the FT, UBS plans to charge a negative interest rate on wealthy clients, those  who deposit more than CHF 2 million with the largest Swiss bank.

While several, mostly smaller, banks in Switzerland and the eurozone already pass on the cost of negative official rates to corporate depositors, most large players have refrained from doing so with individual clients. But with the ECB expected to adopt a “lower for longer” stance as soon as the next central bank meeting, starting in November, UBS Switzerland will charge -0.75% a year on individual cash balances above 2 million Swiss francs, the same rate as the SNB’s rate.

The move, as the FT notes, “underscores how banks in Europe and the US are scrambling to prepare for a protracted spell of lower rates that threatens their profitability, having previously wagered that central bankers would tighten monetary policy.”

Last month the Swiss National Bank said it would hold the negative rate it charges on commercial banks’ deposits at -0.75%, while the ECB deposit rate is -0.4%, but is widely expected to drop by another 10-20bps, which in turn will prompt even more negative rates in Switzerland. In a note to clients last month, UBS forecast that the SNB would lower its rate on deposits to -1% in September, approaching dangerously close to the infamous “reversal rate”, below which accomodative monetary policy reverse and once again becomes contractionary for lending, i.e., the true lower bound of NIRP.

“A year ago everyone thought interest rates would go up. Now it doesn’t look like that,” said one senior wealth manager at UBS quoted by the FT.

To preempt the inevitable howls of rage from wealthy clients who will soon see their total savings shrink by 1% (or more) every year just to hold their money in the bank, UBS relationship managers have started discussing the forthcoming charges with some wealthy clients and are preparing to issue a letter outlining the changes. Some of the bank’s smaller rivals, such as Julius Baer and Pictet, already charge some clients with large cash deposits.

“We assume that this period of low interest rates will last even longer and that banks will continue to have to pay negative interest rates on customer deposits at central banks,” UBS said. “Following similar moves by a number of other banks here in Switzerland, we confirm that we’ve decided to adjust cash deposit fees for Swiss francs held in Switzerland.”

The UBS announcement comes on the same day as Credit Suisse, UBS’s main rival, said it was also thinking about imposing a negative deposit rate on some wealthy clients: “In Switzerland, we are considering measures on deposits to mitigate pressure of negative interest rates,” Tidjane Thiam, Credit Suisse CEO said during a discussion of the bank’s half-year results. And like UBS, the Credit Suisse levy would be “targeted on people . . . that measure their cash balances in millions.”

UBS did provide one loophole, saying that clients who want to avoid the levy can move their balances into non-cash assets or into “fiduciary call deposits” that can be transferred back to the customer’s main account within 48 hours. Such FDCs are held in third-party banks or UBS entities based outside Switzerland, meaning the lender does not have to pay negative rates to the SNB.

However, the lack of immediate access to funds – as UBS implements the effective equivalent of a 2-day certificate of deposit – raises the risk of unintended consequences, such as runs on various other assets should there be a dramatic change in financial circumstances and depositors seek access to any and all liquidity at a moment’s notice.

Whether such negative rates encourage savers to spend their money as central banks have been hoping all along, remains to be seen. In any case, one thing is certain: the unintended consequences of passing on the most destructive monetary policy onto end consumers and savers, will be dire and widespread, and could potentially result in the next financial crisis which, with some luck, will also be the last one.

For now, however, keep an eye on cryptocurrencies: last we checked, there was no cost, and no way to impose punitive rates, to keeps one’s savings in bitcoin and its peers, which should have obvious consequences on its price.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Saudi Arabia.USA

Mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks is Khalid and he could blow the Saudi role wide open in his lawsuit testimony.  The question is will Trump allow his plea deal.

(zerohedge)

 

Alleged 9/11 Mastermind Could Blow Saudi Role Wide Open In Lawsuit Testimony

If anyone knows where the skeletons are buried contradicting the official 9/11 narrative then it’s none other than alleged terror mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. The Wall Street Journal and others report that he’s ready to spill the beans on Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the worst terror attack to ever take place on American soil as part of a victims’ lawsuit seeking damages from the kingdom as a state sponsor.

A letter filed in the US District Court in Manhattan disclosed an offer to spare Mohammed the death penalty in exchange for his willingness to be deposed by the victims, who are seeking billions of dollars in damage from the kingdom, making it extremely politically sensitive regarding both embarrassing secrets of Riyadh’s role in 9/11 and the potential to severely damage US-Saudi economic ties.

 

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the self-described mastermind of the 9/11 attacks. Red Cross/US government photos.

As Al Jazeera noted, however, it’s as yet “unclear if US President Donald Trump, who is close to the leaders of Saudi Arabia, would allow a plea deal for Mohammed to give evidence.” Furthermore, Bruce Fein, former US associate deputy attorney general, explained of the high stakes that, “If the plaintiffs win in this case, it could be hundreds of billions of dollars.” He added, “You have over 3,000 plaintiffs, compensatory plus punitive damages and a jury very hostile to Saudi Arabia, it could virtually bankrupt Saudi Arabia. All their assets in the US and elsewhere could be seized.”

The victims’ lawsuit has been slowly moving forward for years, especially after Congress in 2016 passed the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA), allowing US citizens for the first time to sue a foreign state if that state sponsored international terrorism which harmed the victims.

Notably the declassification of the famous “28 pages” also in 2016, a secret document part of a 2002 congressional investigation of the Sept. 11 attacks, but which had remained hidden from public view since the report’s completion and was the only section to deal with the question of a state sponsor, was a huge milestone in further uncovering Saudi complicity.

The missing 28 pages from the 9/11 report began as follows:

“While in the United States, some of the September 11 hijackers were in contact with, and received support from, individuals who may be connected to the Saudi Government…”

It’s believed that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed’s crucial testimony could fill in key details surrounding what Saudi Arabia knew of the plot beforehand, and in what ways its intelligence facilitated it. Or his testimony could also open up entirely new avenues previously undiscovered.

 

Smoke billows from the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York on Sept. 11, 2001. AP photo.

However, as Reuters notes, we could still be a long way out from that point:

According to the letter, the plaintiffs’ lawyers have been in contact with lawyers for five witnesses in federal custody about their availability for depositions.

The lawyers said three, including Mohammed, are housed at the Guantanamo Bay, Cuba detention camp, where they face capital charges, while two are at the “Supermax” maximum security prison in Florence, Colorado.

According to the letter, Mohammed would not agree “at the present time” to be deposed, but that could change.

Ultimately, a lot of delicate issues, not the least of which is the Trump administration’s approval of a plea deal to spare the death penalty, would have to fall in line before Mohammed starts testifying.

Max Abrahms

@MaxAbrahms

9/11 ringleader Khalid Sheikh Mohammed accuses the Saudi government of helping to coordinate the 2001 terrorist attacks. https://www.wsj.com/articles/alleged-9-11-mastermind-open-to-helping-victims-lawsuit-if-he-isnt-executed-11564426390 

Alleged 9/11 Mastermind Open to Helping Victims’ Lawsuit if He Isn’t Executed

Alleged 9/11 Mastermind Open to Helping Victims’ Lawsuit if He Isn’t Executed

Alleged Sept. 11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed has said he may be willing to help victims of the terrorist attacks in their lawsuit against Saudi Arabia if the U.S. government forgoes seeking the…

wsj.com

One person familiar with the case, but who remained unnamed, cited in the WSJ report said the families hope to gain the alleged terror mastermind’s cooperation: “One of the main things that the 9/11 defendants have to offer is closure, particularly closure for the victims.” He added: “With capital charges gone, there is an opportunity to tell the story of 9/11 once and for all.”

However, we doubt the US government and specifically the US-Saudi intelligence nexus and ‘deep state’ has the least bit of interest in doing this. But this is precisely what’s motivating the 9/11 victim’s families to press on — to expose the ugly truth.

end

6.Global Issues

Something to think about as Michael Every discusses two important laws which have been guiding economics for centuries:  Gresham’s Law and Say’s Law.  Gresham;s law from the 1500’s and Say’s Law from 1803

(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

 

“Yes, The Fed Will Cut And No, It Won’t Be Enough”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Gresham’s Law, Say’s Law, and Godwin’s Law

It’s Fed day and I honestly can’t bring myself to repeat what was already said on Monday and Tuesday other than “Yes, the Fed will cut but it won’t be enough”. Instead, let us take a moment to contemplate several laws that seem pertinent to our current situation.

First, Gresham’s Lawthat bad money drives out good. That used to be the measure of how far a government or a central bank could debase money before everyone hoarded the good stuff and circulated only less valuable coinage. Yet as we contemplate everyone slashing rates again, the opposite appears to be true: everyone is piling into bad and/or directly money-losing assets as benchmark rates decline! One could make the argument for gold, of course, given there is a clear desire to see currencies go lower on the part of central banks, even if they can’t openly say so. (They now leave that to the politicians, of course.) But USD is still, for now, a modern version.

Second, Say’s Lawsupply creates its own demandThis is the “Just build and they will come!” hope as we re-embark on monetary policy previously reserved for extreme crisis: Of course, first you have to get them to build, not speculate on money-losing assets. And even then Say’s Law doesn’t hold true – you can and do get over-supply of goods relative to demand both in one market and in aggregate. Then we end up with all vs. all as sluggish economies parasite the consumers of others – all the more so if the central banks nudge-nudge wink-wink their currencies lower too.

Consider those laws and is it any surprise that as the US and China sit down to talk trade we see US President Trump tweet: “China is doing very badly, worst year in 27 – was supposed to start buying our agricultural product now – no signs that they are doing so. That is the problem with China, they just don’t come through. Our Economy has become MUCH larger than the Chinese Economy is last 3 years. My team is negotiating with them now, but they always change the deal in the end to their benefit. They should probably wait out our Election to see if we get one of the Democrat stiffs like Sleepy Joe. Then they could make a GREAT deal, like in past 30 years, and continue to rip-off the USA, even bigger and better than ever before. The problem with them waiting, however, is that if & when I win, the deal that they get will be much tougher than what we are negotiating now…or no deal at all. We have all the cards, our past leaders never got it!”

Meanwhile, a Bloomberg editorial today argues “Hong Kong is running out of time. Signs are building that the city’s political crisis is starting to affect its financial and business prospects…Hong Kong’s reputation for political stability, reliable institutions and effective governance was won over decades. Once lost, it will be hard to regain.” This, as it appears protestors arrested Sunday night are to be charged with rioting (maximum sentence: 10 years) whereas the ‘white-shirts’ who violently attacked protestors the previous Sunday have been released without charge or face much less serious offenses. Bloomberg also reports: “White House Eyeing Chinese Forces Gathered on Hong Kong Border”. That carries implications here that I don’t need to go in to.

But let me now bring in the third law – Godwin’s Law: as an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1. Indeed, nowadays it usually takes no more than two Tweets to get to that accusation in most online interaction. What’s the relevance? There is a growing swell of anti-China opinion in US policy circles. Seasoned pro-China journeymen have been elbowed aside by younger, hawkish experts who sound even more confrontational that Trump: and some of them use Godwin-esque language. Yes, there are still voices in markets lobbying or pricing for US-China free trade winning out. But let’s rewind the clock and see what the economic debate looked like in the mid-1930s before Godwin.

As a recent Jerusalem Post editorial shows, US President F.D. Roosevelt–the progressive champion of the New Deal–had a pre-WW2 policy to maintain trade and diplomatic relations with Nazi Germany; the Treasury Department even permitted the Nazis to forego a “Made in Germany” label and instead mark goods as having been made in a particular city or region to confuse US consumers. The liberal establishment also shared that stance. Smith College’s president visited Nazi Germany in 1933 and found “no cases of mistreatment” of Jews; Barnard College’s dean toured Germany in 1935 and announced Hitler’s desire to acquire “new land” was “legitimate”; Vassar College’s president saw the boycott as a step toward war, and in 1934, organized a tour of Nazi Germany; and a Bryn Mawr professor similarly denounced the boycott as “simply war without bloodshed.”

Let me make myself abundantly clear: I AM NOT MAKING ANY COMPARISONS OF ANYONE TO HITLER! There is no Godwin goin’ on.

What I am trying to show is that Gresham’s Law matters for markets even in a world without coinage; Say’s Law is a nonsense that will make central banks ignoring Gresham’s Law create worse global imbalances that lead to geopolitical tensions; and hence as US policy hawks start to circle those who think we can avoid a trade rift between the US and China using highfalutin free trade arguments overlook the chequered history of such a principled stance. Anyway, something to think about while we wile away the hours waiting for the Fed.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1146 DOWN .0011 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.56 DOWN 0.040 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2170   UP   0.0012  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3149 UP .0001 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 11 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1146 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 19.83 POINTS OR 0.67% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 368.75 POINTS OR 1.31%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,46%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 368.75 POINTS OR 1.31%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.83 POINTS OR 0.67%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 46% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 187.78  POINTS OR 0.87%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1431.50

silver:$16.48-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.05% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.57 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.10 UP 5 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.34% DOWN 14 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.15%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.28%//DOWN 13 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,54 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 126 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.44% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.98% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1126  DOWN     .0031 or 31 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.58 UP .014 OR YEN DOWN 2  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2208 UP .0051 POUND UP 51  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar U 32 basis points to 1.3145

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8811    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8913  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.5466 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.15%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond DOWN 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.03 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.55 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.16 UP 11  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 30.66  0.74%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 41.80 POINTS OR .34%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 7.83 POINTS 0.14%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 15.90 POINTS or 0.17%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 119.95 POINTS OR 0.56%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.43 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.13 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.42  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.08 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 8 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.06//

 

 

BRENT :  64.30

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.01…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.53..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1073 ( DOWN 83   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.82 UP .261 (YEN DOWN 26 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.58 UP 53 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2162 UP 4  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.5796

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.64   DOWN 0.13 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 13 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3196 DOWN 43 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8811  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9086 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.44%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 333.75 POINTS OR 1.23%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 98.20 POINTS OR 1.19%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.72 CLOSED UP 1.78

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.535%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Market Throws Tantrum At Powell’s “Mid-Cycle Adjustment”

Powell over-promised and under-delivered to a market that will “take a mile when given an inch”…

His comment about an ‘adjustment’ probably means that those looking for an aggressive easing cycle over the next six to nine months are not going to see it. What it means is that there was a divergence between what investors were saying and what they were pricing in.

Investors wanted Powell to say that he’s cutting, but they really wanted to see the Fed embarking on a rate-cutting cycle. The consensus belief on what the Fed would do was correct. It’s just that the markets pricing in an aggressive cycle of rate cuts were way off.” – Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.

“The catalyst for sell-on-the-news was that phrase. He made it explicit — basically, that’s what that phrase means. An insurance cut implied ‘Hey, it’s just an insurance policy. It’s a one-time premium and we’re done.’ And then he made it explicit with that sentence and the market figured it out.”  – Charlie Smith, founding partner and chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.

And the result… (Is Powell the lady on the rope or Stallone trying to save us all?)

This should help..

China ends the month mixed with tech-heavy ChiNext performing well but the broader Shanghai Comp in the red…

 

European stocks were also mixed with UK’s FTSE best (as the pound collapsed) and Spain and Germany weakest…

 

US stocks were all positive on the month with Small Caps worst and Nasdaq best (even with today’s ugliness)…

Bonds and the dollar held gains as stocks and gold sank post-Powell…

This is the 10th time out of 12 press conferences that Powell has done that stocks have tanked – not great!!

 

VIX spiked up to 16.5 intraday, dipped and then pushed back above 15 into the close…

 

Credit spreads spiked notably…IG spreads ended the month wider!

 

Thanks to today’s turmoil in the bond market, 30Y Yields ended the month lower and the short-end higher in yields…

 

The yield curve (3m10Y) very briefly un-inverted but tumbled on the day – staying back inverted…

And the 2s30s curve crashed most since Brexit (June 2016)…

 

The dollar surged 2.5% in July – its biggest monthly gain since Nov 2016 (Trump election)

 

Cable crashed over 4% in July – its worst month since Oct 2016 – with the lowest monthly close since 1985

 

Bitcoin bounced back above $10,000…

But cryptos have been ugly on the month…

 

Commodities were broadly lower today as the dollar spiked but Silver massively outperformed for the month…

 

Silver surged back above $16 intra-month – its best month since Dec 2018…

 

And this was silver’s best month relative to gold since Brexit (June 2016)

 

Finally… Trump demanded a rate-cut – gets one but the dollar soars and stocks tank – who will be blamed for that?

Sven Henrich

@NorthmanTrader

Today’s market summary

Embedded video

And what happens next?

 END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON/FOMC

 

Powell Pivot Complete – Fed Cuts Rates For First Time In 11 Years, Faces Two Dissents

Just over eight months since Fed Chair Powell panicked and pivoted as global stocks (and bond yields) tumbled, the flip-flop is complete as The Fed has cut rates (by 25bps) for the first time since Dec 2008 (and cut the IOER to 2.1% from 2.35%).

Additionally, the Fed ends the normalization of the balance sheet two months ahead of schedule.

Fed praises US economy, blames rest of the world for cutting:

“In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent”

But in a bit of a shock, in addition to Esther George, who was widely expected to dissent, Eric Rosengren also joined the hawkish #resistance, wanting to leave rates unchanged. His dissent is what is spooking markets, because as RSM’s Joseph Brusuelas notes, “Ms. George and Mr. Rosengren took one for the team and expressed their dissent on the rate cut, which is surely one of the more controversial in memory. Two dissents is very rare indeed and reflects the not so gentle split on the committee.”

Mission Accomplished Mr. Trump… but if stocks plunge here, expect Trump to slam Powell for not hiking rates 25bps.

From expectations of 100bps of rate-hikes priced-in in Nov 2018, Powell’s massive pivot now markets pricing in 100bps of rate-cuts…

US Macro data has been better than expected since the June FOMC… but cut anyway!

The last time The Fed started a rate-cutting cycle, valuations were dramatically lower…

Financial Conditions are even easier now than they were in 2007 when The Fed started to cut rates…

Finally, according to the traditional Taylor Rule model (with Core PCE at 1.6% and Unemployment at 3.7%), The Fed Funds rate should be around 225bps HIGHER…

The Fed Funds futures market priced in a 68% chance of another 25bps cut in September… and then done (dramatically less dovish than the rates forward market is priced for)…

 

So was Steve Liesman right?

… in a somewhat stunning moment of clarity for the business channel, CNBC’s Steve Liesman just ever-so-quietly dropped a hint as to the real reason why The Fed is so keen to cut-cut-cut…

In a brief 45 seconds, Liesman drops the “existential” threat argument for why Powell will do whatever it takes to stay in Trump’s good graces…

“If The Fed gets this wrong, I think that they think if they make a mistake here, The Fed could be gone…”

Liesman expands on his ominous view:

“Think about what happens when a person gets up at a rally and starts railing against The Federal Reserve, and starts to create what could lead to Congressional pressure on The Fed, then you could imagine that their could be support for a different system.”

“I think they think there’s a lot of political downside risk to getting this wrong.”

*  *  *

Full redline below:

The punchline here? Whereas the Fed seemed to almost praise the US economy, it had no choice but to blame the global economy for the rate cut:

“In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent”

Said otherwise, it’s the world’s fault. And even more otherwise, any time there is economic instability in the world from now on, buy US stocks.

* * *

So what happens next?

Why is the market anxious in front of this Fed rate cut? @FundStrat  points out “Consider this fact: – the average portfolio manager has 8.7 yrs experience per Morningstar, which means running portfolio only since 2010 – half of fund managers NEVER SEEN A RATE CUT IN THEIR PROFESSIONAL CAREER!!”

END

 

“Policy Error”? Yield Curve Flattens Dramatically, Stocks Slide After Fed Rate Cut

The market is not exactly screaming its excitement at The Fed’s rate-cut.

The market is still demanding 1.5 more rate-cuts by year-end…

Bonds (at the long-end) are rallying, along with the dollar and gold very marginally…

 

The long-end is rallying hard…

As the short-end sees yields rise…

With the yield curve flattening dramatically…

And stocks are down…

zerohedge@zerohedge

If stocks plunge here, Trump will slam Powell for not hiking 25 bps

Get back to work Mr. Powell

END
The following is what stunned Wall Street:
the 1/4 point cut may be just a one time adjustment..
the market did not like that at all..
an down goes the market
the dollar rises
and thus gold/silver fall.

ii)Market data/USA

The generally ebullient ADP employment data shows a rebound from last month but still small business data continues with poor numbers

(ADP)

ADP Employment Data Rebounds But Small Business Bloodbath Continues

While The Fed has clearly veered from any data-dependence (aside from the level of The Dow), some still care about the state of the nation’s ‘real’ economy and today’s ADP was expected to rebound from dismal May and June data and it did with a better-than-expected 156k print for July.

“While we still see strength in the labor market, it has shown signs of weakening,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

“A moderation in growth is expected as the labor market tightens further.”

Goods-producing jobs rose 9k while Services dominated once again, rising 146k in July, but notably very small businesses (1-19 employees) have seen job losses for three straight months…

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is healthy, but steadily slowing. Small businesses are suffering the brunt of the slowdown. Hampering job growth are labor shortages, layoffs at bricks-and-mortar retailers, and fallout from weaker global trade.”

Goldilocks? Or enough bad data for Powell to cut?

end

My goodness, this was a precipitous fall:  The Chicago PMI contracts to the worst ever in over 30 years. While other regional areas fluctuate, the Chicago PMI continues to flounder,

(zerohedge)

Chicago PMI 2019 Collapse Is The Worst In Over 30 Years

Despite some rebounds in regional Fed surveys, Chicago PMI has fallen for five of the seven months so far in 2019, collapsing in July to 44.4 – the second weakest since the financial crisis.

This is the worst drop since the financial crisis.

This was dramatically below the 49.5 lowest analyst estimate.

Only 2 components rose month-over-month and New orders, Employment, Production and Order Backlogs all contracting

  • Business barometer fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
  • Employment fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction
  • Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Production fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction
  • Order backlogs fell at a slower pace, signaling contraction

This is the worst start to a year for Chicago PMI in at least 30 years…

Time to cut rates!!

END

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Trump is silent after a huge number of coal miners bite the dust after declaring bankruptcy protection’

\(zerohedge)

Trump Is Silent After Bankruptcy Wave Devastates Major Coal Producers

President Trump has routinely pumped the coal industry, calling it “indestructible” and telling everyone on social media that “coal is back.”

Coal consumption just crashed to its lowest level in four decades, and a string of bankruptcies from major coal producers has many people asking: Where is President Trump?

Blackhawk Mining, LLC., a coal producer with 2,800 workers in Kentucky and West Virginia, is the latest major producer to file for bankruptcy, according to filings.

 

The Lexington, Kentucky-based natural resource company said in court documents that it has $1 billion in debt, compared to $165 million in Ebitda in 2018. The company plans on shedding at least $650 million in debt.

The latest announcement comes after a string of bankruptcy proceedings from coal companies in Kentucky.

Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear requested on July 15 that the United States Trustee repay hundreds of Kentucky miners left out of work after Blackjewel, LLC, another major coal producer that recently filed for bankruptcy.

Blackjewel removed paychecks from employees bank accounts earlier this month. Another check mid-month never came. Miners and their families were left speechless, they had to draw on savings, if not run up their credit card debt to make ends meet.

“The failure of Blackjewel to prepare for bankruptcy has created unnecessary chaos for our miners and their families — the uncertainty they have had to face is wrong and it must end,” Beshear said. “My office is using all our powers to seek answers to the complaints we have received regarding clawed back paychecks, bounced checks and child support issues.”

“No Kentuckian should be treated this way for putting in an honest day’s work,” he said.

President Trump was famous for saying “We are going to put our coal miners back to work” at a March 2017 “Make America Great Again” rally.

Blackhawk operates 19 underground mines and six surface mines in Kentucky and West Virginia, considered one of the biggest producers of metallurgical coal in the nation. The company borrowed massive amounts of debt, “anticipating that the pricing environment in the metallurgical coal market would improve starting in late 2015.”

The Blackhawk bankruptcy is the third major Kentucky coal producer to file for Chapter 11 since mid-June. Alpha Natural Resources and Peabody Energy have also filed for bankruptcy in recent years.

In Kentucky, coal employment has collapsed in the last decade. Mining jobs in Eastern Kentucky plunged from 13,700 in 2011 to just 4,000 in 2017. In 1Q19, there were 3,960 coal jobs in the region.

Several reports cited dwindling growth of electricity demand has contributed to coal’s demise, due to more stringent environmental regulations.

Twitter archive shows President Trump has gone radio silent on the coal industry since the bankruptcy wave started earlier this year.

And just like the bailouts President Trump has issued to farmers, it wouldn’t shock us if the administration is preparing bailouts for the coal industry, just in time for the 2020 election.

end

A good read…

(courtesy Simon Black)

The Treasury Department Is In Desperate Need Of A Sucker

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Ten years ago, at the peak of the global financial crisis, the Board of Trustees which oversees Social Security in the United States issued a stark warning:

They projected that Social Security’s enormous trust funds would completely run out of money in 2039.

Naturally nobody paid attention. Back in 2009 the economy in shambles, so focusing on a future economic crisis that was more than three decades away was a low priority.

And for the past decade, the US government has continued to ignore its Social Security problem.

But it’s become much worse.

Ten years later, the Board of Trustees now projects that Social Security’s primary trust fund will run out money in 2034.

That’s five years earlier than they projected back in 2009. And it’s only 15 years away.

Now, 15 years might seem like a long time. But take a minute to grasp the magnitude of this problem:

According to the US government’s own estimates, Social Security and Medicare combined are underfunded by $100 TRILLION.

$100 trillion is literally more than FIVE TIMES the size of the entire US economy. And this giant fiscal chasm is actually growing.

The big problem for Social Security is that tax revenue is no longer enough.

Every worker who is legally employed in the United States currently pays roughly 15% of his/her wages each month to help fund Social Security and pay benefits to retirees.

But there are now so many people receiving Social Security benefits that all the payroll tax revenue is no longer enough.

Social Security also derives a portion of the income it needs to pay benefits from the investment returns on its $3 trillion worth of assets.

Problem is– Social Security is forbidden by law to invest in anything EXCEPT United States government bonds.

Most countries who have large Sovereign Wealth Funds or Pension Funds have the latitude to invest that capital in a variety of asset classes.

I personally know several national pension fund and sovereign wealth fund executives in Europe and Asia, and they typically buy a wide variety of assets– real estate, private equity, stocks, bonds, etc., with a target annualized return of between 6% to 8%.

(Norway’s sovereign wealth fund earned an average 7.6% between 2010 and 2017. And California’s state employee pension fund, CALPERS, earned 6.7% last year.)

But Social Security doesn’t have this investment freedom. Instead, Social Security is required BY LAW to invest in US government bonds, which yield less than 3%.

In fact Social Security’s investment return last year was 2.9%.

You’re probably starting to see the problem–

At the moment, Social Security is the #1 owner of US government debt, having spent years stockpiling $3 trillion of dollars worth of US Treasury bonds.

Month after month, as payroll tax revenues exceeded the total retirement benefits paid out, Social Security invested its surplus into government bonds.

But now that flow of money is about to reverse.

We know that Social Security’s payroll tax revenue is no longer sufficient to pay out benefits. There are simply too many retirees.

We also know that the 2.9% invest return is pitiful and not going to help at all.

This means that Social Security is about to start burning through the trust funds in order to meet its monthly benefit obligations.

The Board of Trustees has already acknowledged this fact. And they project the trust funds will be fully depleted in 15 years.

But it could likely come much sooner than that.

Before they can use the trust funds to cover their financial shortfall, Social Security will first have to convert its government bonds into cash.

Doing that will require that they either let the bonds mature (and demand the government to repay them in full). Or it will require them to dump tens of billions… hundreds of billions of dollars worth of bonds on the open market.

Either way, Uncle Sam loses its biggest lender. Instead of borrowing money from Social Security, the Treasury Department is going to have to pay Social Security back.

We’re talking $3 TRILLION. That’s not exactly pocket change. And it’s coming at a time when the US government is already losing more than $1 trillion per year.

The Congressional Budget Office already forecasts that the federal government will have to borrow $12.7 trillion in additional debt through the end of 2029.

Now, on top of that already-prodigious figure, the Treasury Department will have to find some sucker willing to lend an additional $3 trillion to repay Social Security… not to mention tens of trillions of dollars more down the road.

That’s extremely unlikely.

What’s far more likely is that the US government simply freezes the repayments to Social Security.

Maybe they pay back a trillion or two. But not the full amount. The rest of it would be frozen, which means that the trust funds would be effectively depleted MUCH earlier than expected.

Prudential, one of the largest financial institutions in the world, estimates that 86% of current retirees, 88% of baby boomers who are about to retire, and 71% of Gen-Xers, rely or expect to rely on Social Security when they retire.

But the Social Security trustees themselves tell us that the funds will run out of money in 15 years. And as I’ve just shown, it could happen a lot sooner than that.

So it’s clear that a LOT of people will have their lives turned upside down.

Look, maybe I’m totally wrong.

Maybe the Treasury Department does find a sucker to bail out Social Security. Maybe that sucker is us. Bank deposits, managed IRAs, etc. are all fair game for Uncle Sam. They could seize anything they want.

But even if I’m totally wrong, it certainly doesn’t hurt to have a Plan B… to take back control of your own retirement

iv) Swamp commentaries)

A complete joke:  a judge throws out a meritless DNC lawsuit against Trump, Russia Assange and just about everybody else..

(zerohedge)

Judge Tosses ‘Meritless’ DNC Lawsuit Against Trump, Russia, Assange, WikiLeaks And The Kitchen Sink

A federal judge has tossed out a lawsuit brought by the Democratic National Committee against a laundry list of defendants they blamed for a conspiracy to ‘steal’ the 2016 US election from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

 

DNC Chair Tom Perez

Defendants included the Russian Federation, the Trump Campaign, Donald Trump Jr., Paul Manafort, Jared Kushner, George Papadopoulos, Richard Gates, Roger Stone, Joseph Mifsud, WikiLeaks, Julian Assange and several Russians.

In his Tuesday afternoon order, judge John G. Koeltl of the Southern District of New York ruled that the DNC’s 14 claims against the defendants were “either moot or without merit.”

 

Among other things:

  • The DNC’s RICO conspiracy claim was tossed for failing to prove an  alleged pattern of racketeering activity. 
  • The DNC’s claims against the Russian Federation were barred, with Judge Koeltl ruling that “Relief from the alleged activities of the Russian Federation should be sought from the political branches of the Government and not from the courts.” 
  • The DNC’s allegation that the defendants distributed hacked materials under the Wiretap Act was dismissed.
  • The DNC failed to state a claim for trade secret misappropriation pertaining to documents published by WikiLeaks
  • The DNC’s “claims for conspiracy to commit trespass to chattels” was dismissed, as they had “not alleged plausibly that any of the other defendants participated in the theft or agreed to help steal the DNC’s materials.”

Mueller report

Following the April release of the Mueller report, lawyers for most of the defendants asked the court to penalize the DNC for alleging a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russia – arguing that Mueller’s findings revealed the “doomed effort to prove a falsehood.”

“The assumption, of course, was that the Special Counsel would substantiate the DNC’s claims,” wrote lawyers for the Trump campaign. “Suffice it to say, that assumption did not pan out.”

The campaign’s lawyers said the report “debunks any such conclusion by walking through the vast body of evidence that his Office collected and establishing that none of this evidence showed that the Campaign formed any sort of agreement with Russia.”

They said the report shows the DNC can never prove its key allegations, “yet has refused to accept this reality.”

“The DNC has thus made clear that it wants to proceed with a politically motivated sham case, tying up the resources of this Court and the Campaign — and inevitably burdening the President himself — all in a doomed effort to prove a falsehood,” the lawyers wrote.

The lawyers included exhibits with their filing showing that Trump campaign attorney Michael Carvin sent the DNC a May 13 letter demanding that it dismiss all of its claims against the campaign within three weeks or he’d seek sanctions. –AP

Developing…

END
Deep Staters in action:
zerohedge)

Trump Vs. The Spooks: Senator Rips DNI Pick For Promoting “Trump’s Conspiracy Theories”

Authored by Jake Johnson via CommonDreams.org,

Sen. Ron Wyden issued a scathing statement late Monday warning that President Donald Trump’s pick to serve as director of national intelligence is so unqualified that he could put lives at risk.

Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Texas), an ardent Trump loyalist, “is the most partisan and least qualified individual ever nominated to serve as director of national intelligence,” said Wyden, a Democrat from Oregon and a senior member of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

“The sum total of his qualifications appears to be his record of promoting Donald Trump’s conspiracy theories about the investigation into Russian interference and calling for prosecution of Trump’s political enemies,” Wyden said.

 

 

Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Dan Coats, left, is stepping down. Trump has endorsed Rep. John Ratcliffe to become the nation’s next intelligence chief. Image source: Getty/CNN

“Furthermore, he has endorsed widespread government surveillance and shown little concern for Americans’ rights, except for those of Donald Trump and his close associates,” Wyden continued.

“Confirming this individual would amount to an endorsement of this administration’s drive to politicize our intelligence agencies,” the Oregon senator concluded. “This is a dangerous time, and America needs the most qualified and objective individuals possible to lead our intelligence agencies. Anything less risks American lives.”

Ron Wyden

@RonWyden

.@RepRatcliffe is the most partisan & least qualified individual ever nominated to serve as DNI. His only qualifications seem to be promoting Trump’s conspiracy theories about the investigation into Russian interference & calling for prosecution of Trump’s political enemies.

Wyden’s statement comes days after Trump nominated Ratcliffe — who has no background in intelligence — to replace current Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, who is stepping down next month.

The president reportedly liked the way Ratcliffe questioned former Special Counsel Robert Mueller during his testimony before Congress last week.

In an interview with Politico on Monday, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) described Ratcliffe as “a television character that the president has watched on TV.”

 

Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, a senior member of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Image source: AP

Trump, said Murphy, “wants to put somebody in this position who’s going to agree with his political take on intelligence.”

“I’ll certainly do my own evaluation,” Murphy added, “but it strikes me as a very inappropriate choice for the job in a moment when we are trying to lift intelligence out of the political soup.”

end
It looks like Trump was right..there are texts between the FBi and MI 5 on the early role of the UK in Russiagate
(zero hedge)

Secret McCabe Texts With MI-5 Counterpart Emerge, Spotlighting UK’s Early Role In ‘Russiagate’

Newly surfaced text messages between Former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and his counterpart at MI-5, the UK’s domestic security service, have cast new light on Britain’s role in the FBI’s 2016 ‘Russiagate’ investigation, according to The Guardian.

Two of the most senior intelligence officials in the US and UK privately shared concerns about “our strange situation” as the FBI launched its 2016 investigation into whether Donald Trump’s campaign was colluding with Russia, the Guardian has learned.

Text messages between Andrew McCabe, the deputy director of the FBI at the time, and Jeremy Fleming, his then counterpart at MI5, now the head of GCHQ, also reveal their mutual surprise at the result of the EU referendum, which some US officials regarded as a “wake-up call”, according to a person familiar with the matter. –The Guardian

McCabe and Flemming’s texts were “infrequent and cryptic,” but “occurred with some regularity” after the June 2016 Brexit referendum.

In his text message about the August 2016 meeting, Fleming appeared to be making a reference to Peter Strzok, a senior FBI official who travelled to London that month to meet the Australian diplomat Alexander Downer. Downer had agreed to speak with the FBI about a Trump campaign adviser, George Papadopoulos, who had told him that Russia had dirt on Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee in the race. –The Guardian

In 2017, The Guardian reported that Britain’s spy agencies had played a key role in alerting their American counterparts of communications between members of the Trump campaign and “suspected Russian agents,” which was passed along to the US in what was characterized as a “routine exchange of information.”

UK begged Trump not to declassify

In May, President Trump issued a sweeping declassification order on materials related to the DOJ/FBI Russia investigation – leaving it in the hands of Attorney General William Barr to determine exactly what happened to Trump and his campaign before and after the 2016 US election.

“For over a year, people have asked me to declassify. What I’ve done is declassified everything,” said Trump, adding “He can look and I hope he looks at the UK and I hope he looks at Australia and I hope he looks at Ukraine.”

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

A plethora of negative news appeared on Tuesday.

  • The BoJ did nothing
  • Trump slammed China for reneging on deals & ripping off the USA
  • Trump threatened China with harsher deal terms if/when he is re-elected
  • BBG: Apple might report lower iPhone revenue ($2.5B from $29.5B) due to China duress
  • Consumer Confidence in July soared to 135.7 from 124.3 (revised from 121.5) – no 50bp cut
  • Ex-NY Fed Chief & GS top economist Dudley said might Fed might only cut once
  • European banks tumbled

Kuroda Says ‘More Positive’ Toward Easing as Global Peers Shift

While Governor Haruhiko Kuroda kept policy unchanged Tuesday despite trimming inflation forecasts, he added a phrase to the policy statement saying the BOJ wouldn’t hesitate to do more if needed

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boj-leaves-policy-unchanged-ahead-030405337.html

@realDonaldTrump: China is doing very badly, worst year in 27 – was supposed to start buying our agricultural product now – no signs that they are doing so. That is the problem with China, they just don’t come through. Our Economy has become MUCH larger than the Chinese Economy is last 3 years

     My team is negotiating with them now, but they always change the deal in the end to their benefit. They should probably wait out our Election to see if we get one of the Democrat stiffs like Sleepy Joe. Then they could make a GREAT deal, like in past 30 years, and continue to ripoff the USA, even bigger and better than ever before. The problem with them waiting, however, is that if & when I win, the deal that they get will be much tougher than what we are negotiating now…or no deal at all. We have all the cards, our past leaders never got it!

@Jkylebass: “The White House is monitoring a buildup of Chinese forces on Hong Kong’s border, a senior administration official said.”  Here we go… the moment the PLA army marches from Shenzhen, it’s over.  China’s army is going to invade HK.It’s inevitable [Buh-bye trade deal; add more sanctions]

The Fed Might Not Cut Interest Rates More Than Once: Bill Dudley

Recent economic data have weakened the case for added stimulus.

Needlessly stimulating the economy… and pushing bond and stock prices to new and perhaps unsustainable heights. By focusing on downside threats such as the uncertainties of U.S. trade policy and foreign growth, the Fed might ultimately go too far. After all, the current level of short-term rates is already stimulative. If the economy maintains its momentum and inflation accelerates, the central bank could be forced to tighten again –- an abrupt about-face that could burst a financial bubble of the Fed’s own creation, increasing the chances of a painful recession…

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-30/the-fed-might-not-cut-rates-more-than-once

Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller makes the case for a rate hike: The economy is running ‘hot’

It’s a rally that could lead to a historic drop, according to Shiller. Since 2016, he has been comparing similarities between the current bull market and 1929Now, stocks are even more expensive, and he’s not sure a rate hike would foil a potential crash

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/30/shiller-hot-economy-could-benefit-from-a-rate-hike-s-not-a-cut.html

@RaoulGMI: EU banks down 3.5% today. The GMI Worst Chart in the World (EU Banks) is on the CLIFF OF DEATH. This is extremely serious and yet no one seems to be paying attention. The Treasury re-building of the TGA reserves post-debt ceiling is going to suck $350bn out of the funding markets

https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1156171699068571648?s=09

Home-Price Gains in U.S. Cities Decelerate for 14th Month

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-30/home-price-gains-in-u-s-cities-decelerate-for-14th-month

@realDonaldTrump: Senate is working hard on America’s Transportation Infrastructure Act. Will have BIG IMPACT on our highways and roads all across our Nation. Interest strong from Republicans and Democrats. Do I hear the beautiful word, BIPARTISAN? Get it done. I am with you!

ESUs rallied into the BoJ Communique release.  When the BoJ did nothing, except issue its trite pledge to stimulate more if needed, ESUs commenced a decline that lasted until 5 minutes after the NYSE open.  Conditioned traders bought the decline on the NYSE open, abetted by Trump’s latest demand that the Fed cut rates by 50bps.

Trump Demands ‘Large’ Fed Rate Cut as Central Bank Set to Meet

“I would like to see a large cut,” he told reporters Tuesday at the White House… “I would like to see immediately the quantitative tightening stop,” he said… “I’m just very disappointed in the Fed.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-30/trump-demands-large-fed-rate-cut-as-central-bank-set-to-meet?srnd=markets-vp

The standard rebound rally from the opening dip ended at the European close.  Big surprise!  ESUs and stocks then went inert until a rally an afternoon rally appeared.  Apple led the afternoon rally.  We warned in yesterday’s missive that afternoon rumors about Apple results, due after the close, could impact afternoon trading.  Apple tumbled in the morning due to the above BBG story about weak iPhone sales.  But, Apple surged to a gain for the day (8.60 points from low) at the VIX Fix on trader buying and/or buying by those that know or think they know what Apple would report after the close.

When Apple declined during the final hour of trading, ESUs and stocks followed.

Companies are ramping up share buybacks, and they’re increasingly using debt to do so

  • Share buybacks are expected to approach $1 trillion this year, according to Goldman Sachs.
  • Funding is coming from a record drawdown in cash as well as a rise in gross debt and leverage.
  • Buybacks have exceeded free cash flow for the first time since the financial crisis.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/29/buybacks-companies-increasingly-using-debt-to-repurchase-stocks.html

GOP senator introduces bill banning ‘addictive’ social media features

(SMART) Act would make it illegal for social media platforms to hook users by offering them more content than they requested in order to get them to continue on their respective platforms…

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/455235-gop-senator-introduces-bill-banning-addictive-social-media-features

The Congressional Research Service Chart above shows the median wage of “no HS” workers was $16.88 in 1979. It fell to $12.76 in 2000. Now it’s clawed back up to $13.50 — still down a fifth from ‘79, in an economy that has almost tripled in GDP… [Since 2000] unskilled have done relatively well, at least if you count the fat Trump years… I mean recent years…  https://kaus.substack.com/p/into-the-void

UBS Analyst Who Predicted China Bank Woes Sees $349 Billion Hole

    His tally of assets at a broader universe of Chinese lenders in “distress” is 9.2 trillion yuan, or about 4% of the commercial banking system and nearly 10% of gross domestic product…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-30/a-star-ubs-analyst-s-big-new-call-china-banks-need-349-billion

@CNBCnow: AMD plunges after reporting EPS in line with expectations and slight revenue beat, but light Q3 revenue guidance [After the close on Tuesday]

Apple Q3 EPS 2.18, 2.10 expected; revenue $53.8B, $53.5B expected; iPhone sales $25.99B, $26.54B expected; Q4 estimate $61B to $64B from $61.04B; Apple jumped 4% in after-hour trading on the higher Q4 guidance/BS.   https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/30/apple-earnings-q3-2019.html

@charliebilello: Apple has bought back nearly 2 billion shares in the past 6 years, bringing shares outstanding down to their lowest level since 2000. Trend set to continue for some time

Today is the day that bulls have awaited for at least six weeks.  The known universe expects the Fed to cut rates 25bps; the usual suspects anticipate/hope that the Fed will cut rates by 50bps.

Wiser guys will carefully scrutinize the policy votes.  There are rumors that Boston Fed President Rosengren will vote ‘no’ on rate cuts.  If more than one ‘no’ votes are cast, the market might interpret the Fed disunion on rate cuts as an indication that the September rate cut is no longer a certainty.

Another possible negative in the FOMC Communique could be a slightly stronger economic assessment.  As ex-NY Fed Chief Dudley notes, recent economic data has been stronger than expected.

@realDonaldTrump: Baltimore’s numbers are the worst in the United States on Crime and the Economy. Billions of dollars have been pumped in over the years, but to no avail. The money was stolen or wasted. Ask Elijah Cummings where it went.He should investigate himself with his Oversight Committee!

Trump: “What Elijah Cummings should do is take his Oversight Committee, bring them down to Baltimore and really study the billions and billions of dollars that’s been stolen… See if you can find the Billions. As you know, Cummings has been in charge.”  [What does Trump know?]

@DiamondandSilk: According to Newsweek, in 2018, Elijah Cummings district received $15.7 Billion in grants and other assistance from the Federal Government. Where’s the money?  Elijah Cummings needs to be audited and investigated!

Baltimore City FOP @FOP3: FOP #3 releases Statement in response to new Baltimore Crime Plan

The Baltimore Police Department is currently 500 Police Officers short of the number required for effectiveness, with 400 of those positions needed in the Patrol Division.  The current deployment of officers will not be able to, under any circumstances, implement the new crime plan as intended…

https://twitter.com/FOP3/status/1156172408853864450

WBAL-TV’s @jemillerwbal: “We are as committed as ever to helping Baltimore “Deputy BPD Commissioner Daniel Murphy commenting on weekend armed robbery of him and his wife

Solomon: Chris Wray’s FBI continues to cover for Team Comey’s Russia shenanigans

The FBI’s behavior… isn’t about protecting national security secrets. It’s about protecting the bureau’s reputation from revelations its agents knew derogatory info about Steele and his work and failed to disclose that info to the FISC….

     My sources say it’s because the State Department included notations on Steele’s five pages of research strongly calling into question his Alfa Bank theories before sending it to the FBI. In other words, they challenged the veracity and quality of Steele’s intelligence…

     Wray took over the FBI long after such misdeeds occurred. But for some reason, his team has fought relentlessly to keep information secret from Congress and the public about Team Comey’s Russia case…

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/455228-chris-wrays-fbi-continues-to-cover-for-team-comeys-russia-shenanigans

@PeterSweden7: A$AP Rocky has been in jail for 20 days after getting in a fight with a man who allegedly assaulted girls while high on drugs.  But a foreign citizen who was convicted of raping a 13 year old girl only got 150 hours community service.  Sweden is a crazy country.

The ADP Employment Change for July should influence early trading.  Some traders view the ADP Employment Change as a proxy of the coming Nonfarm Payroll.  They occasionally are in concert.

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you Thursday

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: