AUGUST 2/GOLD UP $25.20 TO $1445.70 ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GAINS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON//SILVER UP 10 CENTS TO $16.27.//BANKERS TRIED TO RAID GOLD AGAIN AND FAILED//LUKEWARM JOBS REPORT//THE ENTIRE GERMAN YIELD CURVE IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY WITH RESPECT TO YIELDS//JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA START A TRADE WAR//MORE TENSION UPRISING IN HONG KONG WITH RUMOURS OF MARTIAL LAW ON AUGUST 4//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1445.70  UP $25.20(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

Silver:  $16.27 UP 10 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1440.00

 

silver:  $16.32

 

YOUR DATA…

 

 

Gold is trading much differently these past few months. Generally in the gold physical time zones, gold rises
eg.  11 am est through 3 am  (China markets buying physical gold)
8 am through 12 noon (London and some NY)
It falls during paper time zones like Fridays…
why?  on Friday London is put to bed at 12 noon est and there is no risk of paper gold being tendered for real gold.
Their time frame risk is only a day.  They will worry about paper being turned into real stuff on Monday.
Our banker friends are having a tough time of it lately as too many are turning their paper gold into the real stuff.

 

your data:

COMEX DATA

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 62/221

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,420.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/01/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 08/05/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 5
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 7
661 C JP MORGAN 62
686 C INTL FCSTONE 28 6
690 C ABN AMRO 88 21
737 C ADVANTAGE 59 11
800 C MAREX SPEC 25 2
880 H CITIGROUP 107
905 C ADM 21
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 221 221
MONTH TO DATE: 3,794

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 221 NOTICE(S) FOR 22100 OZ (0.6874 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  3794 NOTICES FOR 379400 OZ  (11.800 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

66 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 330,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 951 for   4,755,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10500 UP 129 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10500 UP 49

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG  SIZED 1342 CONTRACTS FROM 236,226 UP TO 237,568 DESPITE THE 23 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. THE HUGE JUMP IN OI WILL OCCUR IN TOMORROW’S READING AS THE BIG PRICE GAIN OCCURRED AFTER THE COMEX HAD CLOSED.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 2487 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2487 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2487 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2487 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 12.435 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 23 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY

 

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT WITH ZERO SUCCESS..AND ZERO SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY:

3425 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 3425 CONTRACTS) OR 17.13 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1713 CONTRACTS OR 8.565 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  17.13 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.447% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1350.36   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1342, DESPITE THE 23 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2487 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A HUGE  SIZED: 3829 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2487 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1342  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 23 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.33 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.181 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 167% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 66 NOTICE(S) FOR 330,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ//AUGUST:  6.580 MILLION OZ//
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 8,236 CONTRACTS, TO 572,320 DESPITE THE  $4.90 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION HAS NOW COMMENCED FOR SILVER..AS THE LIQUIDATION PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD HAS NOW STOPPED 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 17,418 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 17,418 CONTRACTS, DEC>  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 572,320,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 25,654 CONTRACTS: 8,236 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 17,418 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 25,654 CONTRACTS OR 2,565,400 OZ OR 79.79 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A  LOSS OF $4.90 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 79.79  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER. WE ARE NOW OUT OF THE LIQUIDATION PHASE IN GOLD AS WE MORPH INTO THE ACCUMULATION PHASE FOR SILVER. ALSO REMEMBER THAT WE DID NOT GET OUR BIG GAIN IN PRICE UNTIL AFTER THE COMEX CLOSED…SO EXPECT ANY HUGE GAIN IN TOTAL OI WITH MONDAY’S READING.

 

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 28,533 CONTRACTS OR 2,853,300 oz OR 88.74 TONNES (2 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 14,266 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 88.74 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 88.74/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.49% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3600.01  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 58,236 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($4.90)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 17,418 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 17,418 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 25,654 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

17,418 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 8,236 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 79.79 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.90 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED WITH SPREADING ACCUMULATION OF SILVER OI CONTRACTS AS WE HAVE ENTERED THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST. 

 

 

 

we had:  221 notice(s) filed upon for 22,100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $25.20 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1342 CONTRACTS from 236,266 UP TO 237,568 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF  SPREADER OI IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JULY: 0 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 2487  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2487 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1342  CONTRACTS TO THE 2487 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3829 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 19.145 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.885 MILLION OZ  AND AUGUST AT 6.580 MILLION OZ SO FAR. 

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 23 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2487 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.93 POINTS OR 1.041%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 647.12 POINTS OR 2.35%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 647.12 POINTS OR 2.35%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .38%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9375 /Oil UP TO 55.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.19 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9375 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8636 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Not good!! A trade war has opened up on a second front.  This time it is powerhouse exporters Japan and South Korea going at it. Japan removes South Korea from its “white list” of preferential trade status

(zerohedge)

3C  CHINA

i)Trump ignored Mnuchin’s advice to give China advance  notice on the new tariffs to be implemented.

(zerohedge)

ii)The protests in Hong Kong… continue!!  Citizens use lasers to disrupt facial recognition.

(zerohedge)

iii)CHINA/USA

This is to be expected!! China now threatens with retaliation after fresh new tariffs initiated by Trump. Zero hedge explains China’s next month
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

I)GERMANY

Deadly..the entire German curve is now below zero in interest rates.  Draghi cannot buy any German debt

(zerohedge)

II)EU/USA

Trump to announce a new European trade announcement this afternoon allowing beef exports to the EU
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel/Turkey /USA

It was Israel behind the move to stop the sale of F35 fighters to Turkey.  Israel was afraid of the Russian-Turkey alliance and that would not be good for Israel in their fight with Iran.

(ZERO HEDGE)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Venezuela/USA

This should be interesting:  Trump proposing a complete naval blockade on Venezuela despite Russia and China’s presence in the country

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Central banks have loaded up in gold especially eastern nations

(Bloomberg.GATA)

ii)You do not want to miss any of Pam and Russ commentaries:  today, JPMorgan is the New York fed.

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade/GATA)
iii)Wishful thinking:  Ted Butler hails the new CFTC’s chairman’s support for position limits (limiting derivative positions
(Ted Butler/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA/JOBS REPORT

Generally a poor report; only 164,000 jobs added..wage growth adds to .3% but hrs worked declined.  The market will not be kind to this

(zerohedge)

b)The job numbers are a complete joke..multiple jobholder numbers soar to a record high.  Remember that if you hold 3 jobs that counts as 3 job numbers in the non farm payrolls. Interestingly enough, the labour participation report for the 55 year olds and higher were significantly increased as old timers just do not have enough money to retire on

(zerohedge)

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/late morning

Stock loses accelerate as China warns that the USA will suffer more pain

(zerohedge)

c)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)not good..despite the tariffs, the uSA-China trade deficit hits a 5 month high

(zero hedge)

b)Another bad data point: U. of Michigan confidence falters as middle income American hopes plunge

(zerohedge)

c)USA factory orders contract for the 2nd month in a row

(zerohedge)

d)As we have predicted, the uSA total trade deficit hardly moves in June despite the tariffs. It slightly lowers to 55.2 billion dollars for the June month. This is a negative to GDP

(Market Watch)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

An excellent commentary from Stefan Gleason.  He wonders if Trump might engage in currency intervention to get the dollar down and help with the trade deficit.

a good read..

(courtesy Stefan Gleason)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Ironic! Elijah Cummings Baltimore home is robbed

(zerohedge)

b)Looks like the UK is in trouble with this: many secret texts between the UK and FBI/CIA sources trying to undermine Trump

(zerohedge)

c)I have always stated that Tulsi Gabbard is the right candidate for President but wrong party.  She is going after the Deep State

(Tom Luongo)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 8,236 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 572,320 DESPITE THE  LOSS OF $4.90 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED HUGE SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 17,418 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 17,418   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  17,418 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 25,654 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 17,418 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 8236 COMEX CONTRACTS (DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE).  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE . 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  25,654 CONTRACTS OR 2,565,400 OZ OR 79.79 TONNES.

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 3559 CONTRACTS as we LOST 2992 contract.  We had 2773 notices filed yesterday so we LOST ONLY 219 contracts or 21,900 oz of gold that will NOT stand for delivery AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THESE GUYS HAVE MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND WILL TRY THEIR LACK OVER THERE.

The next non active month is September and here the OI ROSE by 622 contracts UP TO 4240.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI FELL by 223 contracts DOWN to 43,840.

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 221 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  22,100 OZ. (0.6874 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1342 CONTRACTS FROM 236,225 UP TO 237,568 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 14 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 425 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 128 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 188 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A FULL 60 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 300,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 1234 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 155,743 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 16.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 1603 CONTRACTS UP TO 50,404.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 66 notice(s) filed for 330,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 474,268  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  619,834  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 2/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
32.15 oz
Manfra
one kilobar
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
221 notice(s)
 22100 OZ
(0.6874 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3338 contracts
(333800 oz)
10.513 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3794 notices
379400 OZ
11.800 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) INTO  EVERYBODY ELSE;  NIL OZ

 

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 lately very little gold arrives from outside

today:   zero amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Manfra; 32.15 oz  one kilobar

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 32.15  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 221 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 62 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3794) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (3559 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (221 x 100 oz per contract) equals 713,200 OZ OR 22.183 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (3794 x 100 oz)  + (3559)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (221 x 100 oz )which equals 713,200 oz standing OR 22.183 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We LOST 219  contracts or an additional 21,900 oz will NOT stand as these guys  morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus.

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 16.013 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 22.183  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// JUDGING BY THE HUGE SIZE OF THE COMEX NOTICES FILED TODAY, IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEBODY IS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE CROOKS AT THE COMEX.

REMEMBER THAT THE BIG GAIN IN PRICE FOR GOLD (AND SILVER) OCCURRED AFTER 1:30 ONCE THE COMEX WAS CLOSED.  WE SHOULD SEE A HUGE OI GAIN WITH MONDAY’S READING.

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  514,823.353 oz or  16.013 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,783,637.482 oz 242.10 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 33 MONTHS 115 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

At 3:30 they release the COT report and I highlight gold to show the liquidation of 10,499 spreading contracts.

 

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
312,214 57,826 45,699 141,164 429,131 499,077 532,656
Change from Prior Reporting Period
333 -2,805 10,499 -34,621 -34,493 -44,787 -47,797
Traders
210 61 67 53 60 287 168
Small Speculators
Long Short Open Interest
64,221 30,642 563,298
-8,774 -5,764 -53,561
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, July 30, 2019

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 2 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 9,675.991 oz
Int Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
66
CONTRACT(S)
(330,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
359 contracts
1,795,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  951 contracts

4,785,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Int. Delaware:  9675.991 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 9675.991  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 1,602,976.554 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account of CNT and this landed into the customer account of CNT

and this is a deemed settlement.

 

total dealer silver:  93.524 million

total dealer + customer silver:  310.364.354 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 66 contract(s) FOR 330,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 951 x 5,000 oz = 4,755,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (425) and the number of notices served upon today 66 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 951 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (425)- number of notices served upon today (66)x 5000 oz equals 6,580,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.

WE GAINED A STRONG 60 CONTRACTS  AS THE DEALERS BYPASSED THOSE STANDING TRYING TO GRAB WHATEVER SILVER THEY CAN. WE THUS HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 60 CONTRACTS OR 300,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THESE GUYS REFUSED AN OFFER FROM THE BANKERS TO ROLL TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AND THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS FOR NOT ACCEPTING THIS CROOKED CONTRACT.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 66 notice(s) filed for 330,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  103,451 CONTRACTS (huge volume today)

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 134,751 CONTRACTS.. (monstrous volume yesterday

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 134,751 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 673 million  OZ 96.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO +0.40.% ((AUGUST 2/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.57% to NAV (AUGUST 1/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +0.40%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.23 TRADING 13.75/DISCOUNT 3.40

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.50: A HUGE INVENTORY WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LEAVES THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 818.14 TONNES

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ/

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: ANOTHER 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD REMOVED AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD AT THE COMEX/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.61 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

 

 

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AUGUST 2/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 827.82 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 634 TRADING DAYS: 106.87 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 534 TRADING DAYS: A NET 58.76 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 26.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:  A HUGE 1.03 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER LEAVES THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 357.183 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.575 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

 

AUGUST 2/2019:

 

Inventory 356.715 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.17/ and libor 6 month duration 2.23

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .06

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.19%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.24

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.05

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Fed’s Stock Bubble and Why Central Banks Blind Us To Risk

The Federal Reserve dropped interest rates by 0.25% and the U.S. stock markets fell from all time record new highs.

They also signaled to a surprised market that this is by no means an ongoing trend. The markets had to do a double take and were not enamored.

Courtesy of Hedgopia.com

The Fed has turned dovish from a hawkish stance in just 6 months. They are rightly being mocked by some as now being in the pocket of Wall Street and the market which demands  more and more accommodation to justify very lofty valuations.

This would be comical if it were not so serious. Our global markets are now addicted to official intervention and currency debasement to justify their ongoing flows and capital valuations.

This is happening 10 years after the emergency that was justified for adopting such extreme monetary measures began. They have become dumb and dumber with every accommodation, more demanding, more bold, and akin to a toddler having a tantrum.

Alas, every accommodation merely delays the inevitable correction, which threatens, with the passing of time, to become more systematically destructive. The time bought by cleansing the world’s financial balance sheets in 2009, by injecting liquidity, was not used to rebuild and restart the financial and monetary system.

Rather, it was used to bid up asset prices benefiting the chosen few.

The underlying structural issues are even more severe, risks more concentrated and the potential for lasting and permanent damage is very troubling.

No doubt the Fed see early warning signs that economic conditions are worsening and they feel they need to get ahead of the problem before it gets ahead of them.

Super Mario Draghi is signalling a “worse and worse” downturn in economic conditions. The US stock market has surged for 10 years now, posting a 4 fold increase.

In an excellent piece of research, Paban Raj Pandey explains that when the FED cuts, a recession follows (see chart above). The question is now does the cut trigger the recession with the public contracting spending or does the cut create exuberance by pumping the economy up to the point of derision and farce. It looks like the addict is now dictating to the dealer the price they are willing to pay.

ECB bond buying is in the dock in Germany by a number of patriotic and well informed members of the public. They are taking issue with the idea that the ECB can print euros and buy government bonds – known as monetary financing by officialdom or currency confiscation and theft by others.

It is illegal and rightfully so. The ECB’s defense is as idiotic as the original policy; they do not buy the bonds off the governments directly, rather they buy them off brokers who buy them off governments.

Here is the rub, if a central bank, mandated to control inflation, targeting 2% in most cases and keeping unemployment low can also then buy bonds issued by governments – we, collectively,  become blinded to risks building in said economy.

Why, because the bond market is the largest capital market in the world. It is a de-facto measure of risk expectations now and into the future. If it does not like something, there tends to be good reason, because there is something not to like or some growing risk that needs to be considered and addressed.

If the price of a bond goes up and approaches par, then the yield is falling. This indicates that the market is happy with the risk in the world represented by that bond. Conversely if the bond falls out of favour, the price it commands falls and the yield rises, far above the initial interest rate coupon.

If country starts down a very risky and precarious path that has lots of risks you would expect that bond yields would rise. This shunning of the bonds by the market, would show up those in charge, cause strain in the public finances and force budgetary changes, thus raising the stakes for the government. Those in power would feel the heat, be removed or change course. The bond market is a sophisticated estimation of risk as voted by investors who have skin in the game. Central bankers do not have skin in the game.

We would argue that Brexit would have been debated more comprehensively and more rigorously from the initial announcement and that debate would have been reflected in a free bond market pricing in risk.

But because the world’s central banks are so active in our bond markets they have tempered debate, quashed decent and prudent policies and have led to political leaders who are wholly untested to govern nations.

10 Year UK Bond Yield – Remarkably stable for now

Brexit may be the best long term, trajectory for the UK or it may not. But denying the collective wisdom of a free market is very, very dangerous.

Buying gold in this market gives personal sovereignty to investors and savers. It makes them less dependent on governments, banks and central banks. Why because gold and silver cannot be printed and electronically created at will and are universally liquid and exchangeable and proven stores of value.

Watch interview here 

NEWS & COMMENTARY

Gold surges nearly 2% after Trump says U.S. will impose new tariffs on Chinese imports

“We Expect This Selloff To Be Short and Relatively Shallow” – GoldCore via Blomberg

Central Bank Hunger for Gold Lifts Demand to Three-Year High

Gold demand leaps to 3-year high as prices surge – WGC

Ted Butler hails new CFTC chairman’s support for limiting derivatives positions

JPMorganChase is the New York Fed – GATA

Central bank buying and ETF inflows boosted H1 demand

 

Gold Prices via LBMA (AM/ PM Fix – USD, GBP & EUR)

01-Aug-19 1406.40 1406.80, 1161.12 1161.74 & 1273.35 1273.29
31-Jul-19 1430.55 1427.55, 1175.48 1167.45 & 1283.20 1281.37
30-Jul-19 1428.45 1425.90, 1173.47 1171.95 & 1281.75 1279.60
29-Jul-19 1418.95 1419.05, 1150.91 1157.94 & 1275.78 1275.30
26-Jul-19 1418.25 1420.40, 1140.27 1144.70 & 1273.02 1275.95
25-Jul-19 1426.35 1416.10, 1143.08 1132.88 & 1281.86 1265.85
24-Jul-19 1425.55 1426.95, 1142.29 1142.70 & 1279.86 1279.69
23-Jul-19 1417.55 1425.55, 1140.42 1145.29 & 1268.14 1277.01
22-Jul-19 1424.45 1427.75, 1142.69 1143.63 & 1270.04 1272.13

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Buy, Transfer & Store Gold and Silver in Zurich, Switzerland – Six Months Free Storage

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

 

Stephen Flood
Chief Executive Officer

I am the CEO of GoldCore. We help investors buy and store gold and silver easily and cost effectively. We work with clients of every variety from wealth family offices to everyday people. We provide the very best market data and client service and we care deeply for our clients interests.

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Central banks have loaded up in gold especially eastern nations

(Bloomberg.GATA)

Central bank hunger for gold lifts demand to 3-year high

 Section: 

By Rupert Rowling
Bloomberg News
Thursday, August 1, 2019

Central banks continued to load up on gold in the first half of the year, helping push total bullion demand to a three-year high, according to the World Gold Council.

Nations added 374.1 tons in the first six months as Russia and China kept building reserves and Poland made a massive purchase. The trend is expected to continue, with a recent survey of central banks showing 54% of respondents expect global holdings to climb in the next 12 months.

… 

Central banks have added to reserves as economic growth slows, trade and geopolitical tensions rise, and authorities seek to diversify away from the dollar. Gold rallied to a six-year high in July, as expectations for lower U.S. interest rates and concerns about the economy boosted bullion’s appeal. …… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-01/central-banks-hunger-…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END
You do not want to miss any of Pam and Russ commentaries:  today, JPMorgan is the New York fed.
(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade/GATA)

While incomplete, records show that JPMorganChase is the New York Fed

 Section: 

1:57p ET Thursday, August 1, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Wall Street on Parade’s Pam and Russ Martens today delve into the intimate relationship between the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and JPMorganChase & Co., the latter having been commissioned as the New York Fed’s agent in rescuing the investment bank Bear Stearns in 2008 with billions of New York Fed money.

… 

Many of the details of the New York Fed’s bailout transactions, the Martenses write, remain secret, though a federal court case has already determined that this stuff should be disclosed.

The Martenses’ report is another indication that for all practical purposes JPMorganChase is the New York Fed — whether dealing in bailouts or the gold and silver markets.

The report is headlined “Bernie, It’s Time to Audit the New York Fed” and it’s posted at Wall Street on Parade here:

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/08/bernie-its-time-to-audit-the-new-y…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Wishful thinking:  Ted Butler hails the new CFTC’s chairman’s support for position limits (limiting derivative positions(Ted Butler/GATA)

Ted Butler hails new CFTC chairman’s support for limiting derivatives positions

 Section: 

6:50p ET Thursday, August 1, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver market analyst Ted Butler today welcomes a statement by the new chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Heath Tarbert, that the commission “must issue long-awaited rules to limit derivatives positions that help unscrupulous traders corner commodity markets.”

Butler writes: “The one thing the new chairman should recognize is that the big commercial shorts in Comex silver futures have never collectively bought back shorts to the upside and at a loss. Never is a very long time, but commitment-of-traders data confirms this clearly. The big shorts have never taken a loss on their short position. I would submit that such a trading record would be possible only in a rigged market. This one glaring fact, by itself, explains why there has been a decades-long silver price manipulation. The only question is whether the Comex commercial crooks will rig yet another selloff, enabling them to keep their perfect trading record intact.”

Butler’s commentary is headlined “Position Limits” and it’s posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:

http://silverseek.com/commentary/position-limits-17711

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Position Limits

Theodore Butler

 

August 1, 2019 – 2:42pm

 

The newly-installed chairman of the CFTC, Dr. Heath Tarbert, in office for only two weeks, submitted an op-ed to Fox Business News the other day, in which he laid out his goals for the agency. Dr. Tarbert comes to the agency with an impressive educational and professional background and as a Republican nominee, I had assumed he would continue in trying to lighten the regulatory burdens on the big guns in the financial industry. Instead, I came away with a very different take upon reading his opinion piece.

 

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7986-19. Here’s the key passage – “[T]he CFTC must issue long-awaited rules to limit derivatives positions that help unscrupulous traders corner commodity markets.  The trick will be making sure these rules do not strip those markets of the flexibility needed to perform their fundamental risk-management functions.”

 

I’d be lying if I said Tarbert’s words didn’t resonate with me. It wasn’t that long ago that I had complained to the public integrity section of the FBI/DOJ about the CFTC’s failure to do its job when it came to JPMorgan and silver. Position limits were a non-issue while JPMorgan came to completely dominate the silver market – selling short in unlimited amounts and acquiring almost all the available physical silver in the world. Nevertheless, one must not become so jaded to not recognize clear evidence of someone trying to do the right thing.

 

Chairman Tarbert’s words about position limits come at a noteworthy time. In the 35 years I have followed silver, there has always been a large concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures. That’s why I alleged the silver price was manipulated. There was never a legitimate economic reason for the large short position. Had position limits been enacted, it would have eliminated the concentrated short position, allowing the price to rise. But while the large and uneconomic short position still exists in COMEX silver futures, it has recently been joined by a large concentrated long position. The one big difference between the very large concentrated short and long positions in COMEX silver futures is that only the long position seems economically justified. When the price of anything becomes extremely depressed, it makes a lot of sense for market participants to buy that asset and makes no sense for market participants to sell short that asset.

 

The price of silver is the only commodity down nearly 70% from price peaks of both 8 years and 39 years ago. It is the only metal where primary miners can barely make a profit at current prices. Relative to other precious metals, particularly gold, silver is priced at such depressed levels so as to defy a reasonable explanation. In such circumstances it makes sense for large buyers to appear and absolutely no economic sense for there to be large short sellers. The only possible reason for large short sellers to exist in a commodity that is depressed in price is to depress the price further. Thus, should the new chairman of the CFTC mean business about enacting legitimate position limits, I hope he sees the difference between a large position that makes economic sense and one that doesn’t. The concentrated long position has not driven prices to unreasonably high levels, while the short position has depressed the price.

 

The imposition of legitimate position limits on derivatives, as Chairman Tarbert clearly states, is essential and must be applied to both longs and shorts. Futures traders holding in excess of 15,000 COMEX silver contracts, as is currently the case for the average long and short positions of the 4 largest traders should be disallowed. Position limit in COMEX silver futures should be no more than 1500 contracts (7.5 million oz.). That the average position of the 4 largest traders on both the long and short side is ten times that amount is downright shocking.

 

The big concentrated longs in COMEX silver futures are deluding themselves if they think they will be able to hold on to these derivatives long positions if and when silver gets cranking to the upside. These big silver paper longs will be forced to divest (sell) their futures contracts by the regulators when prices heat up. Any thought of these big paper longs holding silver as it hits $50, $100 or higher is a pipe dream.  The irony is that the CFTC will be fully justified in cracking down on big concentrated longs should silver prices truly get frothy, regardless of the fact that it should have previously cracked down on the big shorts. Chairman Tarbert would be more than justified to crack down on both speculative longs and shorts who exceed reasonable position limits.

 

The big paper silver longs have a perfectly legitimate alternative to the day when (not if) they are ordered to divest their big COMEX futures positions. The solution is what I have advised for decades – buy and hold physical silver. There is no position limit on how much physical one can own – not in real estate and not in commodities or anything else tangible (as long as one doesn’t intend to manipulate). The recent large inflows of physical silver into the world’s silver ETFs strikes me as part of a conversion from COMEX silver futures to actual metal and I am highly encouraged by this development. I suspect that a large COMEX futures long may have converted a third or so of its paper into physical silver. But there is more to go and if other big paper longs haven’t thought of converting to physical, they better start thinking of that quickly. Once silver prices get uncorked, the regulators are also certain to disallow paper to physical conversions in order to slow the price rise.

 

While the big paper longs have a legitimate conversion option at this time, no such option exists for the big concentrated shorts (apart from JPMorgan). The big paper shorts can try to stall by converting COMEX futures to short positions on SLV or by borrowing physical metal to, effectively, sell short, but that’s like jumping from the frying pan into the fire. Truth be told, the big silver shorts can burn in hell for all I care. They’ve gotten away with decades of depressing the price and nothing will save them should the CFTC disallow them from continuing to dominate the price. I just hope Chairman Tarbert agrees.

 

The one thing the new chairman should recognize is that the big commercial shorts in COMEX silver futures have never collectively bought back shorts to the upside and at a loss. Never is a very long time, but COT data confirm this clearly. The big shorts have never taken a loss on their short position. I would submit that such a trading record would only be possible in a rigged market. This one glaring fact, by itself, explains why there has been a decades-long silver price manipulation. The only question is whether the COMEX commercial crooks will rig yet another sell-off, enabling them to keep their perfect trading record intact.

Ted Butler

end

Bullion star’s Persson gives us a good lesson on the 8,000 year history of gold as money

(Persson/Bullionstar/GATA)

 

Torgny Persson: The history of the world is a history of gold

 Section: 

7:40p ET Thursday, August 1, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star’s Torgny Persson today provides a summary of gold’s 8,000-year role as money, concluding that the history of the world is a history of gold, despite the efforts of central banks to push the monetary metal aside. That’s the headline on Persson’s commentary — “The History of the World Is a History of Gold” — and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/bullionstar/the-history-of-the-world-i…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

From Nicholas to Bill Murphy of GATA and me:

Hi Bill,Harvey,

 It is that time of the month to once again visit the LBMA’s disseminated data to review this critical source of physical metal. Big yawn-as usual no material change. The profile of the loco London physical vault holdings of gold was as follows as at 30th April 2019.

Total tonnes in loco London vaults 7,650
Less BOE (5,019)
Less GLD as at 30th April 2019 (747)
Net residual tonnes of vault gold 1,884

These 1,884 tonnes must not only satisfy the claims of all allocated gold account holders, but also the counter parties to all those EFP contracts , now well above 10,000 tonnes. Unallocated gold accounts are mere claims to a fiat settlement (and probably all these opaque EFP contracts are in this same category of mere undeliverable promises) The main black hole would appear to be the claims of allocated gold account holders, who hold the title to a never ever disclosed quantity of numbered gold bars that have long ago been re-refined to .9999 finesse and shipped Eastwards. The above profile of LBMA physical vault gold as at 30th April 2019 has hardly changed since the LBMA embarked on this new policy of transparency of disclosure (90 days in arrears) as at 31st July 2016. If copious amounts of physical gold are indeed flowing out of London, it is axiomatic that, since the LBMA core vault holdings are just about constant,  then all outflows must be matched by commensurate inflows from the LBMA’s list of nearly 70 accredited refineries. In other words, the only physical gold in play is fairly inelastic current mine supply.

It is of course possible that some of the physical gold, ostensibly reported as located in loco London ,has been swapped/loaned/leased, and the metronomically constant  profile (as above) includes gold receivables of some description, instead of the real physical metal. (That would be naughty, naughty, but hardly a surprise).

The COMEX Open interest is currently elevated at about 564,000 contracts (about 1,754 tonnes) compared to only 16 tonnes of registered gold per the CME reports on metal depository statistics-5 tonnes of this amount was a 31stJuly 2019 internal transfer from the eligible to the registered category in the HSBC depository. I read some daily commentary relating to notices filed and contracts standing for delivery and contracts ‘stopped’, but I find this data to be a bit disparate. Beginning with the CME reports for 12th July 2019, I have started to download this data on a daily basis.(If you miss a day, bad luck because the reports are not archived and only the current daily report is accessible). Over time, my summary will provide an accurate profile of all the delivered/withdrawn physical precious metal as reported by the CME. Yesterday Jesse coined the term hyper-rehypothecation, so in these days when such hypothecation practices and fractional reserving of +100/1 are the new euphemistic descriptions for officially condoned rampant corruption and plundering, perhaps the distinction between COMEX registered and eligible gold is fairly meaningless. For the period from 12th July 2019 to 31st July 2019, here is the summary of physical precious withdrawn from the COMEX .(At least this data is current, unlike the totally useless historic LBMA data.)

Metal Withdrawn from COMEX 12/07/2019 to 31/07/2019 From Registered Holdings From Eligible Accounts
Gold: NIL Gold:           0.094 tonnes
Silver: NIL Silver: 2,357,813 troy ozs.

No withdrawals at all from the COMEX registered category  of either physical gold or silver in the last 20 days of July 2019 may not have much significance in isolation, but overtime the farcical nature of these undeliverable paper promises will be revealed in this alternative concise, unequivocal summary based on the CME’s own data, but stripped of the mystique, jargon and complexity that is designed to obfuscate the essentially  undeliverable nature of physical metal that is alleged to be held in the virtually inaccessible COMEX depositories.  Remember, however, that the COMEX seeks to distance itself from the chicanery of its constituency by issuing a disclaimer on each and every report which itemizes CME metal depository statistics.

This commentary was prepared primarily on Thursday morning as the headline paper prices of gold and silver were being trashed. Richard Quest on CNN was livid with rage at the apparent cause of the later stunning intraday reversals .Clearly we are near peak insanity in just about everything. Whilst the paper markets are acting in a slightly more robust fashion recently, before you jump to any hard conclusions, ask yourself whether  it is possible for the COMEX Open Interest to jump to 2 million contracts and EFP transfers to exceed 30,000 tonnes? The only truly  fatal impediment to decades of manipulation would be the hegemony of a market priced only by bid/offers for proven stocks of physical metal .  Will the Comex deliver any physical gold at all in these coming days? It will be interesting to watch the forthcoming withdrawal data for hard evidence .The combined total of registered and eligible gold is only 242 tonnes, less than 14% of the open interest, so if there is ever a panic into ownership plus possession of physical gold, stripping the COMEX entirely will hardly alleviate the imminent crisis in an environment of fractional reserving fraud in the range of 100/1 (possibly even 500/1)

The Russia Today (RT) channel reports upon the increasing number of Sino-Russo collaborations as the new One Belt One Road trading bloc gathers momentum in respect of its roll out, eventually embracing more than 60% (70%?) of the global population. This massive accumulation of gold by China and Russia (possibly in excess of 30,000 tonnes each) has a definite purpose, which will be revealed in due course. When that purpose is revealed, the price of physical gold will be dictated by a physical market place. The magnitude of the conspiracy that GATA has sought to expose for two decades will be unraveled, and few, if any, will fail to be impressed by its ‘magnificence’ (magnificent in the sense that the ‘end of days’ will be magnificent to behold).

Regards

Nicholas

end

A good commentary showing the supply side of gold.   I have been using 3500 tonnes which seems to be accurate.

Others use:  global supply at 2800 tonnes – 700 tonnes (Russia and China)

as none of their gold ever gets out.

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Peak gold continues to be elusive– WGC

While the latest quarterly Gold Demand Trends report from the World Gold Council (WGC) finds an encouraging pattern of gold demand growth in Q2 2019, largely due to seemingly ever-increasing Central Bank demand and some substantial inflows into gold ETFs over the quarter, along with a big pick-up in gold jewellery demand in India. What will be disturbing for some commentators/analysts on gold is that supply – far from plateauing or diminishing, as many have been suggesting, is actually continuing to rise making the ‘peak gold’ theory something of a gold bug’s myth – at least for the time being. We have ourselves suggested that supply may be peaking, but not according to the WGC’s latest research.

While global mine output continues to grow, albeit by only a small amount, the higher gold prices received in Q2 led to a 9% rise in recycled gold.

On the mining front, despite contractions – quite severe in some cases – in some major gold mining nations like China, South Africa and Indonesia, new mined gold output continued to grow from some others among the world’s biggest gold mining nations – notably Russia, the U.S. and Canada (all up around 9%), and Australia up around 6%. This led to overall new mined gold production growth of around 2% in Q2 2019 compared with the same quarter a year earlier. This follows on from a record Q1 too. Overall the WGC estimates H1 new mined gold production at 1,730.2 tonnes – up 1.1% on H1 2018. Kazakhstan – a mid-sized gold producer saw output rise by a massive 18% benefiting from the continued ramp-up of Polymetal’s Kyzyl project which is continuing towards full production by the end of the current year. In West Africa, Ghana – nowadays the continent’s largest producing nation – saw a 6% year-on-year increase in production, primarily from Ahafo and Akyem.

For comparison – Top 20 Gold Producing Nations 2017/2018 (Tonnes)

Rank Country 20 18 Output 2017 Output %  Change
1 China 404 429 -5.9%
2 Australia 315 293 +7.6%
3 Russia 297 281 +5.9%
4 USA 222 236 -6.3%
5 Canada 189 171 +10.4%
6 Peru 158 167 -4.9%
7 Indonesia 137 114 +20.0%
8 Ghana 131 130 +0.7%
9 South Africa 130 154 -15.7%
10 Mexico 115 119 -3.4%
11 Brazil 97 96 +1.3%
12 Uzbekistan 92 89 +3.9%
13 Sudan 77 88 -13.0%
14 Papua New Guinea 69 64 +7.4%
15 Kazakhstan 68 56 +22.1%
16 Mali 61 50 +21.3%
17 Argentina 60 63 -4.6%%
18 Burkina Faso 59 53 +12.8%
19 Tanzania 48 55 -12.7%
20 DR Congo 45 37 +22.8%
Others 728 697 +4.4%
Total 3,503 3,442 +1.8%

Source: Metals Focus, lawrieongold

On the downside, Chinese gold production registered another quarter of year-on-year declines. National output fell 4% as the stricter environmental regulations imposed in 2017 continued to impact the industry – albeit to a lesser degree. South African production fell 12%, disrupted by industrial action. Output from Beatrix, Kloof and Driefontein was cut significantly due to strikes that began in November 2018 and only drew to a close at the end of April. Hopefully there will be something of a pick-up in the second half of the year as the strikes appear to be over with union wage disputes transferring mostly to the platinum mining sector.

In Indonesia, national production fell by a massive 48%. At Freeport’s Grasberg operation – the world’s biggest gold producer in 2018 – the exhaustion of higher grades in the final phase of the open pit and the subsequent switch to underground mining continued to depress volumes relative to the prior year. The country’s other big gold mine. Batu Hijau, remains constrained by Phase 7 open pit expansion, as well as by copper concentration export limits and the lack of local smelting capacity.

In general, though, weaker currencies have been helping improve miners’ margins. Weaker producer currencies helped pushed relative non-US dollar costs down (or revenues up depending on which way you look at it), thereby boosting miners’ margins in key mining nations such as South Africa, Australia, Russia and Ghana. The WGC comments that this all puts the industry in a reasonably healthy position.

The other significant supply component is recycled gold which totalled 314.6 tonnes in Q2, 9% higher than the same period of 2018. The WGC puts this down primarily to the stronger gold price performance in Q2 when it broke through the psychological $1,350/oz level and then rapidly up through $1,400, thus encouraging a wave of selling as some consumers looked to lock in profits. This breakthrough though was all in the final month of the quarter, which suggests that such recycling supply increases may well have continued through the first part of Q3 as well and will likely be boosted further by yesterday’s sharp gold price rise. H1 recycled gold supply is put by the WGC at 602 tonnes, 7% higher than the same period in 2018 and the highest H1 since 2016 when a huge rally in the gold price prompted significant selling back.

While the rise in recycling may be unsurprising given the gold price performance in Q2, the WGC notes that the response was far from uniform. In Western markets – North America and Europe – higher recycling volumes in June were responsible for much of the increase over the quarter. The supply of recycled gold in April and May was relatively subdued (as was the gold price), which meant the boost in June helped achieve a modest overall increase in Q2.

In the Middle East, Iran again saw robust absolute levels of recycling, modestly higher year-on-year. The volatile USD/Rial exchange rate helped support local gold prices in May – as international prices fell – but then countered the gold price rally in June. Turkey, on the other hand, saw much more modest levels of recycling despite higher prices. The WGC puts the reason for this being price expectations amongst consumers, who generally believed that the rally had further to run and so waited to sell at higher prices. This may have occurred in July and thus be in Q3 figures.

In China, recycled gold supply in Q2 was noticeably higher year-on-year. While April and May were quiet, consumers were enticed to sell their gold through promotions offered by jewellers as the price rose in June. And, higher volumes may also have been helped by recent advances in China’s gold recycling market. India too saw more recycling as the gold price rose above Rs32,000/10g in June. Elsewhere in Asia, though, the response to the price increase was far more muted.

While the rise in the gold price perhaps won’t do much to arrest any potential downturn in new mined gold production – indeed it could enhance it by making previously uneconomic lower grade areas of a mine viable – it will also likely unlock some recycled gold which might not have become available at lower prices which may counterbalance any mine production shortfall. True peak gold thus could likely continue to remain elusive for a couple of years yet!

02 Aug 2019

-END-

(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)

Gold / Silver May Be Breaking Free From Manipulation

 Financial MarketsGoldMarket ManipulationPrecious MetalsU.S. Economy

The price of gold has rejected numerous attempts by the banks to hammer the gold price below $1400 using paper gold derivatives on the Comex and the LBMA. I have not seen gold behave with such resiliency in the last 19 years when the Comex banks have an extremely large short position in Comex paper.

The action in the price of gold is signalling that large buyers are accumulating a lot of physical gold. This is preventing the banks from using the Comex as a manipulative tool. Based on historical preferences, I highly doubt the buying is coming from the hedge funds, who have been content playing in the paper gold sandbox of the Comex.

Per the World Gold Council numbers, which are notoriously understated, Central Banks have purchased 374 tonnes of gold in the first half of 2019. This is the highest level of CB gold purchases in over 50 years. Note that western Central Banks – specifically the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ have been notably absent from the buying frenzy. The buying has been led by China, Poland and Russia.

“With governments everywhere itching to increase spending without raising taxes and as the global economy sinks into a trade and credit-cycle induced recession, budget deficits will fuel monetary inflation at a faster pace than seen before. Re-learning that gold is sound money is now the most urgent priority for all those charged with responsibility for other peoples’ investments.”

The quote above is from Alasdair Macleod’s must-read essay titled, “The Reasoning Behind Gold’s Breakout.”   The article dispels the common “Fake news” myths about gold. It would be a great article to read for Warren Buffet, who believes that gold “just sits there doing nothing.” Of course, students of gold and history know that gold has outperformed the Dow since 1971. Macleod revisits the math behind this fact.

If you are looking for mining stock ideas to take advantage of the emerging bull market move in gold and silver, please consider my Mining Stock Journal.  In the latest issue released last night I review a popular silver stock that I believe is overvalued and I present a high risk/high return junior exploration stock that is relatively unknown but has 10x potential. You can learn more about this newsletter here:  Mining Stock Journal information.

***

When you know what is going on behind the scenes in the gold and silver markets, and are writing about it every day, it is hard not to gripe. For example, following the Trump tariff tweet yesterday…

*The DOW was hit hard, it is lower today.
*The dollar sold off, it is lower today.
*The yield on the 10 yr T note fell, it is lower today.
*And gold and silver rose, but at the moment both are now lower than their Access Market closes following the tweet. Gold is last at $1440. and silver at $16.18. THEY are going all out this afternoon to take gold back down below its key $1440/$1442 level.

There was natural follow-through in all but the precious metals.

That said, and despite the griping, it was one heckuva last 24 hours and the tone is set for a terrific last half of the year.

There has been a great deal of bullish power built up in gold over these past many weeks…

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9375/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9636   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 40.93 POINTS OR 1.41%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 647.12 POINTS OR 2.35%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 455.83 POINTS OR 2.11%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 98.23/Euro RISES TO 1.1110

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.16/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.84/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.31 and Brent: 62.19

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.49%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.57% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.26%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.06: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.05

3k Gold at $1438.15 silver at: 16.20   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 93/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.29

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.84 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9852 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0936 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.49%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.86% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.39%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.5938..

“Sea Of Red”: Global Markets Tumble In Post Trump Tariff Carnage

The Fed’s rate cut was supposed to boost markets and slam the dollar… it didn’t quite work out that way.

One day after stocks tumbled when Powell disappointed markets with his hawkish cut – the biggest plunge for stocks on a rate cut day since the memorable 1987 – global markets swooned as a wave of selling swept across the world, as panicked traders dumped stocks on fears that trade war between the US and China is about to escalate. Add to this a fresh trade war between Japan and South Korea, and a Trump announcement on EU trade at 1:45pm which will hang over markets, and it becomes obvious why world markets are a sea of red.

Meanwhile, safe havens such as bonds and the yen jumped in the wake of President Donald Trump’s move to escalate the trade war when he vowed to impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports from Sept. 1, escalating a bruising and protracted trade war between the world’s two biggest economies, while China pledged “countermeasures” if the U.S. steps up tariffs on its goods.

 

“The question for investors is whether this is the first step in a series of escalations or a negotiating stance that will compel China to make concessions and the Fed to ease,” said Steve Englander, global head of FX research at Standard Chartered Bank. “If the president can elicit concessions from both China and the Fed, it would be a double win from his perspective.”

Trump’s announcement, which came a day after U.S. and Chinese negotiators concluded a meeting in Shanghai without much progress, marks an end to a trade truce struck in June and could further disrupt global supply chains.

“The combination of the Fed delivering a cut but not really what the market expected or wanted has tightened financial conditions, and may be partly the reason why Trump has gone for this escalation,” said Gerry Fowler, investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “It is not good for what was already weak business sentiment.”

The carnage was focused on equities, with European stocks tumbling 2% led by automakers and miners, posting their biggest drop of 2019 on Friday 

… as the trade-sensitive DAX and France’s CAC 40 dropped 2.7%, the former hitting a fresh two-month lows.

German bond yields hitting record lows of -0.503% and the entire German curve now trading below 0% with the German 30Y dropping below zero for the first time ever.

MSCI’s index of world stocks dropped 0.6% as Asian bourses nursed heavy losses. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.6%, extending its selloff to a third day. While Japan’s Topix Index fell 2.2% after the country decided to remove South Korea from a list of trusted export destinations, Korea’s benchmark pared earlier losses and closed 1% lower. The Hang Seng Index dropped to an almost two-month low as technology stocks tumbled. Materials and energy were the worst-performing sectors in the region, after crude prices had the steepest one-day drop in more than four years on Thursday.

The US was spared much of the brunt with S&P futures pointing to just a modest 0.3% lower open. On Thursday, the S&P 500 skidded 0.9% to hit one-month lows overnight.

Emerging-market stocks fell for an eighth day, the longest losing streak since December 2015, as new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports raised the temperature in the trade war after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish cut already sapped demand for high-yielding assets.

Ahead of the July employment report to be released at 8:30am ET, Treasury yields are near multi-year lows reached Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced additional tariffs on Chinese imports. Even before the latest declines, a survey by BMO found strong inclination to buy any dip in prices caused by the jobs report. The release of the June U.S. jobs report spurred a sell-off in Treasuries. Four of the previous five had a fleeting impact on the market. Median survey estimates for the July jobs report include nonfarm payrolls gain of 165k, 3.6% jobless rate and a 0.2% month-on-month increase in average hourly earnings

Not surprisingly, core euro zone bond yields tumbled, with German 10-year government bond yields dropping more than three basis points to an all-time low of -0.529% while the 30Y dropped below zero for the first time ever. That tracked the drop in 10-year U.S. Treasuries yields to 1.832% – the lowest since Nov. 8, 2016, the day Trump was elected president.

Trump’s strategic move may force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again – just as Trump intended – to protect the U.S. economy from trade-policy risks after its first rate cut in more than a decade on Wednesday. The October Fed funds rate futures have jumped to now fully price in a rate cut in September, compared with only around 60% before the tariff announcement. Another 25 basis point move is priced in by December.

“In the grand scheme of things, it will become clearer and clearer that the Federal Reserve has started an easing cycle and will have no choice but to cut rates further,” said Akira Takei, fund manager at Asset Management One.

While China has yet to offer details on what measures it would take, the sudden escalation of the trade war has put markets in a spin in an already action-packed week. The developments come after the Federal Reserve chief cast doubt about a long cycle of interest-rate cuts, provoking the president’s ire and disappointing many investors. The monthly U.S. jobs report will be the next big event later Friday, and while the market has priced in more trade cuts it is unprepared for an especially strong report, which will likely take place due to a surge in census hiring.

Meanwhile, as we wait for China to start dumping bonds, Japan’s cabinet approved removing South Korea from its export white list and Industry Minister Seko said they ready to talk only after South Korea corrects its statement regarding July meeting. It was also reported that BoK Governor Lee was to hold a meeting with officials and South Korean President Moon to chair a cabinet meeting following Japan’s decision to remove South Korea from its white list. Subsequently, South Korea have stated they will remove Japan from their White List as well. South Korea’s Deputy National Security Advisor states that Japan has generated obstacles in the way of achieving peace on the Korean peninsula, will review whether to maintain agreement on military intelligence sharing.

Oh, and just in case there wasn’t enough going on, the White House schedule for US President Trump showed that an announcement regarding EU trade is scheduled today at 1845BST, while reports later stated that US President Trump is to formally announce a deal to open up EU to more beef exports, according to sources familiar with the plans

In geopolitical news, North Korea conducted further short-range projectile launches early on Friday, which reports stated appeared to be a new type of missile.

In currency markets, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was up for a third week; the gauge reached a two-month high Thursday, having gained 1.3% since July 12. The safe-haven Japanese yen surged to a five-week high against the dollar and soared to a 2-1/2-year peak against the pound.   The euro recovered to $1.1099, from a two-year low of $1.1027 hit in U.S. trade. The British pound held near a 30-month low versus the dollar as the ruling Conservatives’ majority in parliament was reduced to one seat, adding to concern over politics three months before the country is due to leave the European Union. Sterling was last 0.1% lower on the day at $1.2116. China’s onshore yuan slumped to its lowest since November 2018, falling some 0.7% to 6.9428 per dollar. In the offshore market, the yuan fell to as low as 6.9778.

In commodity markets, gold dropped slightly to $1,435.46 per ounce after rising 2.3% on Thursday, near a six-year high of $1,453 touched two weeks ago. Oil prices bounced back after suffering a sharp, 7% selloff on Thursday, its biggest daily percentage drop since February 2016. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rebounded 1.9% to $54.96, having shed 7.9% the previous day.

Exxon, Ferrari and Sprint are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 2,938.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 2% to 380.09
  • MXAP down 1.4% to 155.50
  • MXAPJ down 1.7% to 504.82
  • Nikkei down 2.1% to 21,087.16
  • Topix down 2.2% to 1,533.46
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.4% to 26,918.58
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 2,867.84
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 37,178.95
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,768.57
  • Kospi down 1% to 1,998.13
  • German 10Y yield fell 3.5 bps to -0.485%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1100
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.9 bps to 1.229%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.3 bps to 0.271%
  • Brent futures up 2% to $61.72/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,437.48
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 98.24

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Beijing pledged to respond if the U.S. insists on adding extra tariffs to the remainder of Chinese imports. Raw materials are reeling after President Trump abruptly threatened new tariffs on Chinese goods, casting doubt on negotiations to end the trade war that’s sapping global growth and demand for commodities.
  • Trump announced that he would impose a 10% tariff on a further $300b in Chinese imports, and later said the levy could go “well beyond” 25% and will be implemented from Sept. 1. The U.S. President resisted advice to give Beijing advance notice of the tariffs
  • Trump labeled recent protests in Hong Kong as “riots,” adopting the language used by Chinese authorities and suggesting the U.S. would stay out of an issue that was “between Hong Kong and China.”
  • South Korea warned Japan it would be responsible for repercussions from its unprecedented decision to remove Seoul from a list of trusted export destinations, as escalating tensions between the two U.S. allies threaten to damage security ties and global supply lines
  • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s House of Commons majority was reduced to a single seat after the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats won a by- election in Brecon and Radnorshire. This makes Johnson’s balancing act more difficult as he seeks to deliver Brexit by Oct. 31
  • U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and the European ambassador to the United States on Friday will sign an agreement to increase the amount of American beef that can be sold in the EU market, the people familiar said, speaking on condition of anonymity ahead of the announcement Friday.
  • Ten-year Treasury yields plunged to the lowest since 2016 on news of new tariffs, and as traders slashed their inflation outlook. Trump told a campaign rally in Cincinnati that “until such time that there is a deal, we will be taxing the hell out of China”
  • The anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats won a by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire, reducing PM Johnson’s majority in the House of Commons to just one and making his balancing act more difficult as he seeks to deliver Brexit by Oct. 31
  • Oil is set for a weekly loss following the steepest one-day drop in more than four years after U.S.-China trade tensions worsened

Asian equity markets traded lower across the board with global risk sentiment spooked after US President Trump upped the pressure on China by announcing a 10% tariff on the remaining USD 300bln of Chinese goods to the US beginning September 1st. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was subdued with hefty losses seen in the energy sector after crude prices dropped over 7% the prior day and with broad weakness across mining names aside from gold stocks after the precious metal was boosted by safe-haven demand, while Nikkei 225 (-2.1%) was dragged lower by a firmer currency, soft earnings and as regional bilateral relations further deteriorated after Japan approved the removal of South Korea from its white list of preferred trading partners. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-2.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) conformed to the washout across stocks following Trump’s tariff announcement in which he said he is taxing China until a deal can be reached and suggested that tariffs could be raised to 25%. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher and notched their biggest gain since early January as they tracked the upside in global bonds due to safe-haven demand and with the BoJ present in the market for longer-dated bonds.

Top Asian News

  • South Korea Takes Action Against Japan Over Export List Move
  • Toyota Cuts Profit Outlook as Yen Gains on Rising Trade Tensions
  • Emerging Markets Still a Buy for Nissay Asset After Trump, Fed
  • World’s Biggest Pension Fund Adds $2.4 Billion Amid Gains Abroad

European equities are submerged in a sea of red [Eurostoxx 50 -2.5%] and have extended on opening losses as the region succumbs the global risk sentiment following US President Trump’s latest tariff threat, which would see USD 300bln worth of Chinese goods taxed at 10% from September 1st. Major EU bourses are currently lower in excess of 2% with France’s CAC (-2.7%) one of the worst hit due to its broader exposure to trade-sensitive stocks, i.e. autos, chip names, materials and luxury goods. Sectors are firmly in negative territory with material names lagging as the sector bears the brunt of plummeting base metal prices, whilst IT and consumer discretionary follow closely. Defensive sectors fare slightly better as investors flock to the “safer” stocks , i.e. healthcare, utilities and consumer staples. Some notable trade-related movers include Infineon (-6.9%), STMicroelectronics (-6.0%), Arcelormittal (-5.0%), Hugo Boss (-6.0%), LVMH (-3.5%) and Fiat Chrysler (-3.5%). Elsewhere, RBS (-6.2%) is hit post-earnings after the bank stated that it is unlikely to meet its 2020 ROTE goal, whilst Pirelli (-5.1%) became the second EU tire name to slash guidance this quarter.

Top European News

  • Royal Bank of Scotland Declines as Gloom About Brexit Deepens
  • British Airways Buoys IAG Earnings Even as Pilot Strike Looms
  • Carney Sees Significant Chance of Inflationary No-Deal Brexit
  • Natixis Fixed Income Trading Rebounds as Riahi Caps Tough Year

In FX, the clear outperformers amidst a sharp deterioration in risk sentiment on another flare up in US-China trade tensions, as President Trump follows through on additional tariff threats with a date set for at least 10% to be levied against the remaining Usd300 bn goods. Unsurprisingly, Beijing has responded in kind with the ‘promise’ of countermeasures and the Yen has extended gains vs the Dollar through 107.00 and beyond 1 bn expiry options at the round number, while the Franc is back above 0.9900 and testing 1.0950 against the Euro following weaker than forecast Swiss CPI and manufacturing PMI prints that could well arouse SNB interest. However, the Buck is forging gains elsewhere and just enough on balance to keep the DXY afloat between 97.147-45 parameters awaiting US jobs data.

  • EUR – The single currency is also benefiting from its semi or partial safe-haven status as Eur/Usd rebounds further from yesterday’s new ytd low around 1.1027 and briefly back over 1.1100. However, a decent spread of expiries either side of the big figure could contain the headline pair ahead of NFP, if not the NY cut, with 4 bn in total running off from 1.1075 to 1.1130. Note, little reaction to mixed Eurozone data in the form of retail sales and PPI as the former beat consensus and latter missed.
  • NZD/AUD/CAD – Predictably, the biggest victims of the aforementioned US-China trade fallout with the Kiwi down to 0.6525 vs its US counterpart, Aussie pivoting 0.6800 and Loonie under 1.3200 within a 1.3210-30 range. Some solace for the Aud and Cad via firmer than expected Aussie retail sales and PPI overnight and a modest recovery in oil respectively, but scant consolation if global trade wars escalate even further.
  • EM – No shock to see Usd/Cny rally from PBoC midpoint levels and Usd/Cnh even more given the latest tit-for-tat between Washington and Beijing, as the off-shore Yuan heads back down towards 7.0000 and clustered chart resistance just shy of the perceived line in the sand circa 6.9805-40-95. However, Usd/Try continues to trend lower and the Lira outpace regional peers in the absence of US sanctions (as yet), weaker crude prices that are weighing on the likes of the Rouble and residual support from the CBRT’s softer inflation projections. Nevertheless, the winning streak could end or stall if S&P delivers a negative Turkish ratings review post-Friday’s close and/or CPI data next Monday rebounds in line with expectations.

In commodities, the oil complex is posting a mild recovery following the prior day’s 7% sell-off in which a bout of risk aversion and global growth concerns resurfaced following President Trump’s announcement of fresh China tariffs and a potential levy hike. WTI futures found a base at 54/bbl while its Brent counterpart tested support at 60.00/bbl with both benchmarks currently just above 55/bbl and 62/bbl. Elsewhere, gold has eased off highs following its Trump-induced rally which saw the safe haven print a peak of around 1449/oz before stabilising sub-1440/oz. Meanwhile, copper plunged to a 3-week low to below 2.6/lb on the tariff threats as the red metal followed suit with the global risk sentiment and the prospect of lower demand. Finally, Dalian iron ore futures slid over 4% and is on course to notch its second consecutive weekly loss amid demand woes (from US-China trade developments) and oversupply concerns after Brazil announced a rebound in exports in July.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 165,000, prior 224,000
  • Unemployment Rate, est. 3.6%, prior 3.7%
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
  • Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.4, prior 34.4
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $54.6b deficit, prior $55.5b deficit
  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 0.7%, prior -0.7%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, prior 2.0%; Durables Ex Transportation, prior 1.2%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 1.9%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.6%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 98.5, prior 98.4; Current Conditions, prior 111.1; Expectations, prior 90.1

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

If you thought it was now safe to pack your bags and go off on holiday with the FOMC out of the way, in the knowledge that you’ll be leaving behind quiet markets, then you may want to think again. A surprise tariff announcement from President Trump after Europe went home last night has changed the tone for August and ironically done far more for dovish rate expectations than the Fed managed the day before. However it comes at a time of fragility in the global data, an increasing risk of a hard Brexit, a worryingly flat US yield curve, collapsing yields and a US equity market that was ignoring all the risks and only 0.54% off the all-time highs just before the Trump tweet. An interesting set up for today’s payrolls and indeed for August – a month where through history volatility often disproportionately picks up on bad news.

In more detail, Trump tweeted that he will implement new tariffs of 10% on the remaining $300bn of imports from China, effective September 1st. As a reminder, that’s on top of the 25% on around $250bn of other imports, with Trump having previously deferred the implementation of this list of tariffs after meeting with President Xi at the G-20 in June. Trump specifically said that Xi has not followed through on his promises, by not increasing purchases of US agricultural goods nor stopping the flow of Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, into the US. He also said, “Until such time that there is a deal, we will be taxing the hell out of China.”

US equities saw a significant reversal on the news, with the S&P 500 down -1.99% from its earlier high after it had nearly recouped the post-FOMC losses. The moves in the NASDAQ and DOW were even steeper, down -2.41% and -2.18%, respectively from the highs. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW ultimately ended -0.90% , -0.79%, and -1.05% on the session. When asked after the close what he thought about the negative market reaction to his tariffs, Trump said he’s “not concerned at all,” and added that if China doesn’t “want to trade with US anymore, that would be fine with me,” and suggested that the tariff rate could rise further. He also said the new tariffs will be “short-term” which is a bit difficult to read. His series of earlier tweets did include one that said “We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one!” So he is leaving the door open for a more positive solution but everything is very uncertain and confusing at the moment and global business confidence could have done without this. We’ll await a China’s response. Typically they have been proportionate.

Sectorally, the energy sector dropped -2.28% after WTI fell -6.98% for its worst session since November, down to a 6-week low of $54.51. Bank stocks (-3.40%) also underperformed, as the moves in fixed income were pretty severe. 10-year yields ended -12.6bps lower at their lowest level since election day 2016 at 1.8969%. Two-year yields dropped even more steeply, down -13.6bps, helping the curve to steepen back +1.0bp to 15.0bps. On the other hand, the Fed’s preferred curve metric, the 18m forward 3m versus spot 3m, flattened -21.7bps, its sharpest drop since March 2009.

One way to interpret the price action in fixed income is that the market moved to price in much higher odds for near-term accommodation from the Fed. Indeed, the fed funds futures curve went from pricing a 60% chance of a rate cut in September to assigning around 94% odds. Through year-end, the market now implies 49bps of cuts from here, up +15bps from Wednesday’s close after Powell. The implications for the dollar are a bit more nuanced, as the greenback weakened against developed market currencies as a result of higher Fed easing odds, but it strengthened +0.62% versus the offshore yuan, leaving the overall dollar index close to flat.

The selloff was exacerbated as major asset classes had spent the morning retracing their post-Fed moves. Equities and front-end rates had pared their moves and were back to right around their pre-Fed levels. The dollar had pared around 75% of its post-Powell rally as well. Partially those reassessments were driven by a soft but nowhere near as bad as feared ISM manufacturing report earlier in the day. The headline index came in at 51.2, down -0.5pts, but better than many expected after the terrible Chicago PMI the day before. The forward-looking new orders index rose +0.8pts to 50.8, while the prices paid index fell -2.8pts to 45.1, its lowest since February 2016. Separately and as expected, the US Senate passed the recently-negotiated spending bill which will raise the budget caps for the next two years and suspend the debt ceiling until July 2021 as well. President Trump is expected to sign the bill into law soon.

Overnight, the trade headlines have continued to dominate with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi suggesting that the new tariffs were definitely not the correct, constructive way to resolve trade friction. Meanwhile, Trump is also expected to make an announcement on EU trade today in Washington at 1:45pm local time (06:45pm London time). So hold onto your hats for that one. Elsewhere, Japan has decided to remove South Korea from a so-called “white list” of countries that benefit from less stringent trade checks and said the removal will take effect on August 28. South Korea had urged Japan not to go ahead with the change, saying it would have grave consequences and prompt a rethink of security cooperation. South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in called for an emergency cabinet meeting shortly after the decision was announced and Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol plans a meeting at 2 p.m. local time to discuss the impact of Japan’s decision. South Korea’s electronics giants Samsung (c. -2%) and SK Hynix (c. -3%) have declined on the news. So we are likely to end the week with trade tensions remaining at the fore.

Asian markets are trading in a sea of red this morning with the Nikkei (-2.48%), Hang Seng (-2.37%), Shanghai Comp (-1.68%) and Kospi (-0.84%) all down. We have also seen some big moves in Asian FX this morning, with the Japanese yen being up +0.28% while the Chinese onshore yuan is down to its lowest level since November at 6.9346 (-0.52% this morning). The Taiwan dollar (-0.59%), South Korean won (-0.62%) and Indonesian rupee (-0.80%) have also seen declines. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.24% while those on Nasdaq are down -0.35%.

In other overnight news, President Trump labeled recent protests in Hong Kong as “riots,” adopting the language used by Chinese authorities and suggested that the US would stay out of an issue that was “between Hong Kong and China.” Elsewhere, North Korea has again launched unidentified projectiles into its eastern sea this morning after the country skipped a chance at talks with US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo.

Back to yesterday and Sterling fell -0.18% (-0.21% this morning) to a fresh two-and-half year low against the dollar yesterday as the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged. The Bank’s statement said that “global trade tensions have intensified and global activity has remained soft” in the period since May, and Governor Carney said in his press conference that “the underlying pace of growth has slowed to below-potential rates as a result of weaker global demand and more entrenched uncertainty about Brexit amongst UK companies.” The growth forecasts were cut for this year to +1.3% (from +1.5% in May) and 2020 to +1.3% (from +1.6%), which would be the slowest annual growth rate for the UK economy since 2009. The Bank’s forecasts also said that assuming interest rates remained unchanged, there was a 33% chance that the economy would have fallen into negative growth in Q1 2020.

Acknowledging the impact of Brexit, the statement also said that “Brexit-related developments, such as stockbuilding ahead of previous deadlines, are making UK data volatile.” An issue for the Bank in recent months has been that their forecasts have been predicated on “a smooth adjustment to the average of a range of possible outcomes for the United Kingdom’s eventual trading relationship with the European Union.” This scenario analysis doesn’t have a hard Brexit as anywhere near as high a risk as the market increasing does. 10-year gilt yields fell by -1.8bps yesterday, reaching their lowest level since August 2016.

Staying with the UK, the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats won a by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire, reducing Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s House of Commons majority to a single seat. Thereby making his balancing act ever more difficult as he seeks to deliver Brexit by October 31.

Elsewhere in Europe, equity markets made modest gains, with the STOXX 600 up +0.50%, while the DAX (+0.53%), CAC 40 (+0.70%) and the FTSE MIB (+0.79%) also advanced. Like in the US, energy stocks underperformed, with the STOXX Oil and Gas index down -1.46% and at an eight-week low. Yield curves flattened across the continent, while ten-year yields bunds were down -1.0bps to close at -0.45% – another record low. Late in the session, an MNI story got some attention, which said that support at the ECB is solidifying around a tiered deposit rate cut, but there is no consensus on new asset purchases. These anonymously sourced articles have a mixed record of accuracy and this article does contradict earlier MNI reports, from a few weeks back, suggesting that there was lack of support for tiering. Still, the potential uncertainty around new QE caused BTP yields to rise +4.0bps.

As for European data, the final July manufacturing PMIs were the highlight and showed poor momentum across the board. The final Eurozone reading was at 46.5 (vs. preliminary 46.4), while the final French manufacturing PMI was revised into contractionary territory at 49.7 (vs. preliminary 50.0), making this the first time since June 2013 that the big 4 Eurozone countries all had a sub-50 reading in the manufacturing PMIs. It was no better for the CEEMEA countries either, with Poland (47.4), Turkey (46.7), Russia (49.3) and the Czech Republic (43.1) all seeing contractionary readings. The comparative outperformer was Greece, with a 54.6 reading.

To recap the rest of the US data, the Markit PMI was revised up +0.4 pts but was still at the lowest level since 2009 at 50.4. Construction spending fell -1.3% mom in June, worse than the 0.3% expansion expected, though the May figures were revised higher. Meanwhile the latest initial jobless claims rose to 215k last week (vs. 214k expected).

Despite all the central bank, political, and data noise so far this week, things will continue to be eventful today when we get the US jobs report for July. Consensus is calling for a 165,000 print, below June’s 224,000 figure but roughly in-line with the 3- and 6-month moving averages. The unemployment rate is expected to fall back 0.1pp to 3.6%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise by the same pace as June, 0.2% mom and 3.1% yoy.

Apart from the US jobs report today, we’ll also get the trade balance and factory orders for June. There’ll also be the final readings for the University of Michigan’s sentiment indicator for July and durable goods orders for June. From Europe, we have the Eurozone’s June retail sales and PPI data, the UK’s construction PMI for July, and Italy’s industrial production and retail sales for June. In addition, we have earnings releases from Exxon Mobil, Chevron and RBS.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.93 POINTS OR 1.041%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 647.12 POINTS OR 2.35%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 647.12 POINTS OR 2.35%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .38%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9375 /Oil UP TO 55.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.19 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9375 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8636 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Not good!! A trade war has opened up on a second front.  This time it is powerhouse exporters Japan and South Korea going at it. Japan removes South Korea from its “white list” of preferential trade status

(zerohedge)

Trade War 2nd Front Opens Up – Japan Removes South Korea From Export “White List”

President Trump’s ‘good friend’, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has formalized Japan’s decision to remove South Korea from its “white list” of 27 countries with preferential trade status, a move that further fuels bilateral tensions.

The move follows a decision by Japan on July 4 to tighten controls on exports for three chemicals used in the production of semiconductor products.

As The Asia Nikkei Review reports, the breakdown in relations was sparked by last year’s decisions by the South Korean Supreme Court to award reparations to the country’s wartime laborers at Japanese companies during Japanese occupation.

 

The court decisions challenged the understanding that all such claims were already settled “completely and finally” under a 1965 treaty that established diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Tokyo is asking Seoul to abide by the 1965 agreement and has asked for third-party mediation, fearing that the court ruling would open the floodgates for other victims to seek compensation from these and other Japanese companies. Seoul has so far declined to submit to such mediation.

The decision comes after Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono and his South Korean counterpart Kang Kyung Wha met on the sidelines of annual ASEAN-related meetings in Bangkok, and clearly were unable to come to a compomise.

Japan’s “White List” removal decision means that South Korea will be stripped of the privileged status that has allowed it to access Japanese goods without going through cumbersome processes. The decision is expected to take effect later this month.

Following the decision, all items except for food and lumber could potentially come under the scope of a Japanese government review when they are exported.

The Korean Won is extending its losses against the dollar (and yen) following this news…

Japan’s trade curbs have been met with an anti-Japan movement in South Korea, where shops and consumers have organized campaigns to boycott Japanese products and services, including trips to Japan; and Kang said she warned Kono that if Japan goes through with removing South Korea from the white list, Seoul would have no choice but to reconsider its security cooperation with Tokyo.

It would appear a second front has opened in the global trade war.

end

3 C CHINA

Trump ignored Mnuchin’s advice to give China advance  notice on the new tariffs to be implemented.

(zerohedge)

Trump Ignored Mnuchin Advice To Give China Early Notice On New Tariffs

Earlier today we reported that contrary to the conventional wisdom that Trump blasted off his 1pm China tariff tweet – in which he singlehandedly ended the ceasefire between the US and China when he unveiled 10% tariffs on $300BN in Chinese imports starting September – on his own, instead a number of officials were in the room with President Trump as he drafted this Tweet, advising him on language. Among those: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, Acting COS Mulvaney, trade advisor Navarro, and NEC Director Kudlow.

Now, we also learn that ahead of hitting send on his shocking tweet that sent stocks and bond yields plunging, there was also some discussion whether Trump should warn China in advance of blasting his decision to the entire world. However, according to Bloomberg, Trump ruled out giving Beijing advance notice of his intent to slap a new 10% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese goods in an Oval Office meeting before he announced the duties.

Citing “several people familiar with the discussion”, Bloomberg reports that during the meeting, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer briefed Trump on their talks in Shanghai this week with their Chinese counterparts. While the White House called the talks “constructive” in a statement issued Wednesday, Trump concluded that the two U.S. officials actually came away with nothing.

Meanwhile, Mnuchin and Lighthizer knew the president was considering a new round of tariffs before they left for Shanghai, three of the people said. Trump has been unhappy about what the U.S. views as Chinese back-tracking on trade talks, and has recently said he believes Beijing may be trying to wait until after the presidential election in 2020 to conclude a deal.

In any case, fast forward to Thursday morning, and the meeting in the Oval Office which was reportedly “tense”, and where Mnuchin recommended that the U.S. notify Beijing before Trump, but Trump refused suggesting that the trade hawks are now fully in charge of the situation in the White House. At the same time, acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney talked through the market effects of increasing the China tariffs, Bloomberg sources reported.

Trump hit send on his tweets announcing the new tariffs at 1:26, while Mnuchin, Lighthizer, Mulvaney and others were still in the Oval Office.

* * *

Later in the day, Trump said he was not concerned about the drop in Dow stocks… for a good reason: it is Powell who should be concerned, because as the Fed chair, an escalating trade war is precisely one of the conditions that would prompt the FOMC to cut rates further, something which prompted us to predict earlier today that an escalation in trade war is imminent as Trump now knows precisely how to provoke the Fed into cutting further:

… if an acceleration in the trade war with China is what the Fed will need to cut more, it’s pretty clear what that means for the chances of any trade deal between Washington and Beijing, since even Trump now understands that if he keeps escalating trade war with China, Powell will have no choice but to eventually cut to 0% (and lower).

A few hours later we were proven right.

END

The protests in Hong Kong… continue!!  Citizens use lasers to disrupt facial recognition.

(zerohedge)

Watch Hong Kong Protesters Use Lasers To Disrupt Facial Recognition Cameras

Protesters in Hong Kong appear to be keenly aware of the Chinese mainland’s all-pervading Orwellian surveillance system and facial recognition software, and they are already taking action to thwart such systems installed in Hong Kong.

The UK Independent reports based on a viral video posted by a freelance journalist this week:

Protesters in Hong Kong are using lasers to blind security forces and avoid facial recognition cameras used by authorities.

Alessandra@alessabocchi

Hong Kong protestors are on another level. Here they’re using lasers to avoid facial recognition cameras. A cyber war against Chinese artificial intelligence.

Embedded video

It’s the latest in an array of technological tricks anti-Beijing protesters have used to stay a step ahead of local police as they increasingly resort to harsh riot control tactics to break up masses in the streets, including using virtual private networks on phones to conceal identity, and encrypted messaging services like Telegram.

The original video had been broadcast by Hong Kong’s Now TV before going viral on social media and shows protesters distorting the view of street security cameras.

In some instances lasers are capable of permanently a damaging surveillance camera’s optics and electronics. 

The video, which has been viewed millions of times, also includes scenes of people pointing their laser pens in Hong Kong police officers’ faces.

This comes just as on Wednesday the chief of the Chinese Army’s Hong Kong garrison said his forces stand ready to “protect” Chinese sovereignty and condemned reported vandal attacks of government property and buildings in the semi-autonomous city.

PLA commander Chen Daoxiang said, “The incidents have seriously threatened the life and safety of Hong Kong citizens, and violated the bottom line of ‘one country, two systems’,” according to the South China Morning Post. He concluded, “This should not be tolerated and we express our strong condemnation.”

END
CHINA/USA
This is to be expected!! China now threatens with retaliation after fresh new tariffs initiated by Trump. Zero hedge explains China’s next month
(zerohedge)

China Threatens US With Retaliation After Fresh Tariffs: Here Is What It Could Do

Now that President Trump has boxed Jerome Powell into a corner by declaring his intention to slap tariffs on the other ~$300 billion in Chinese goods that haven’t already been impacted come the first of September, it’s worth considering: How will Beijing respond to all of this?

So far, Chinese media has been quiet on the subject, even as domestic markets tumble and the yuan slides. That’s possibly because China’s senior lawmakers have departed to the seaside resort of Beidaihe for their annual two-week policy conclave. Typically, officials from President Xi on down disappear from public view as they debate policy. But Beijing’s minister of foreign trade has already made clear that Beijing is less than pleased with President Trump’s latest announcement which, like the last one, took them completely by surprise (though it’s not all that surprising considering that the latest round of trade talks barely lasted half a day.

And although Beijing doesn’t have nearly as many options for retaliatory tariffs since the US imports far more goods from China than China imports from the US – and even less now that Beijing has ended purchases of agricultural products – Bloomberg has put together a list of possible options for retaliation that Beijing could invoke.

Beijing has already levied retaliatory tariffs on about $110 billion in imports from the US. Based on 2018 data, that leaves another $45 billion of products that could be hit with tariffs.

Here’s what Bloomberg‘s economists had to say:

“Assuming Trump’s tweet becomes policy, we’d expect a proportionate reaction from China. That would mean more tariffs on imports from the US. We don’t think China would shoot itself in the foot with harassment of US. firms or sales of US. Treasuries.”

But with China halting or dialing back purchases of American pork and soybeans, imports are down 30% in the first six months of this year compared to 2018. So the goods that could actually be hit is much lower.

As an opening salvo, Beijing could reinstate the tariffs on US cars that it lifted as part of a goodwill gesture, Bloomberg reports.

Mouthpieces for the Communist Party like Hu Xijin have also suggested that Beijing will likely walk away from the talks altogether should the US move ahead with its tariffs, as Beijing shifts its focus to how it should function during a prolonged trade war.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

New tariffs will by no means bring closer a deal that the US wants, it will only make it further away. I think the Chinese will no longer give priority to controlling trade war scale, they will focus on the national strategy under a prolonged trade war.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

As far as I know, China has recently sped up buying US farm products, public opinion is helping make the adjustment. But Pre Trump is in a rush to reach a deal & is too arrogant. Influenced by wrong intelligence,he misjudges China in many fields. He may make big mistake on China.

Just as they threatened to do a few months back, Beijing could look to its stranglehold on the supply of rare earth metals as one avenue for retaliation. Investors are already betting that Beijing could choose this option, sending shares of rare-earth miners higher in Friday’s trade.

Beijing might even walk back its promise to buy US oilseeds as a goodwill gesture, something it promised to do before the latest round of talks began. With the harvest just around the corner, now is a critical time for farmers, as buyers typically start booking orders for the new American harvest.

Beijing needs low-sulfer US crude – which is one reason why it hasn’t been hit with tariffs yet. But it could increase the already 25% tariff on LNG. Since there’s a market glut, Beijing doesn’t need it.

Another option is to follow through with threats to include FedEx and any other US companies that have offended Beijing to its promised “unreliable entities” list. Few details have been released, but many expect the unreliable entities list to be similar to the Commerce Department’s entities list, the “blacklist” that Huawei was placed on.

Boeing’s shares tanked following Trump’s tariff announcement, and with good reason: the aerospace giant is in the middle of negotiations with Chinese airlines to complete a massive order.

Economists, though, are sharing their views, and most are pretty downbeat.

And there’s always Huawei. If Trump goes back on the promises he made to President Xi in Osaka, it could open up a whole can of worms as Beijing might walk away from all future talks.

At any rate, it’s becoming increasingly clear to economists that Beijing is seeking to slow down the pace of trade talks and retaliation as it hopes to wait out Trump’s term, in the hopes that a Democratic successor might be easier to deal with.

“China’s strategy in this trade war escalation will be to slow down the pace of negotiation and tit-for-tat retaliation,” according to a note from Iris Pang, an economist at ING bank NV in Hong Kong. “This could lengthen the process of retaliation until the upcoming U.S. presidential election. It won’t have escaped the authorities in China’s attention that a full-blown trade war is unlikely to help President Trump’s chances in the election.”

Meanwhile. President Trump is set to make an “announcement” on EU trade on Friday. Which means he might be about to open another front in the trade war, at a time when global trade tensions are already peaking.

zerohedge@zerohedge

Trump to Make Announcement on EU Trade Friday 1:45pm DC Time

Here come auto tariffs

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Deadly..the entire German curve is now below zero in interest rates.  Draghi cannot buy any German debt

(zerohedge)

Entire German Curve Drops Below Zero For First Time Ever

Somewhere, Albert Edwards is dancing a jig as the ice age he predicted will grip the world, appears to finally be here.

While global equities are sharply lower today following the end of the US-China trade ceasefire, it’s nothing compared to what is going on in the bond market, where one day after the 10Y US Treasury plunged a whopping 6% to 1.832% – the biggest one day drop since Brexit – to the lowest since the Trump election…

… the real show is in Germany, where not only did German 10Y Bunds tumble to the lowest on record, sliding to -0.503%, far below the ECB’s -0.40% deposit rate, the highlight was the plunge in 30Y yield, which today dropped below 0%…

 

… dragging the entire German yield curve in negative territory for the first time ever.

As such, Germany joined Denmark and Switzerland in offering negative returns across all maturities, and assuring losses to all investors should notes be held to maturity, taking the total stock of investment-grade debt yielding less than 0% above $14 trillion globally.

Enter “Japanification”: as Bloomberg notes, “the move will add to fears that the region’s economic slowdown is being driven by more structural factors akin to Japan’s lost decade”, which is ironic because not even Japan’s 30Ys trade negative. Germany’s bond market is widely perceived as being one of the world’s safest, with investors lured in by the liquidity and credit quality offered. Funds still looking to extract a positive return from European sovereign assets have been forced further out the yield curve or into riskier debt markets such as Italy. And as of today, anyone investing in German paper is guaranteed to lose money if holding to maturity.

“It underlines that the hunt for yield, or rather hunt to avoid negative yields, is accelerating day by day,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of fixed-income research at Danske Bank A/S. “It just makes things more complicated.”

In addition to fears about a German recession sparked by the renewed Trump tariff threat, Germany’s bond market is also plagued by a problem of scarcity, with the government mandated by law to effectively maintain a budget surplus. The ECB holds nearly a third of the existing debt, leaving less to trade, which has helped to compress yields even further.

“It is a combination of a very uncertain economic outlook, a central bank that left all doors open in terms of new easing measures, the absence of inflation and vigorous search for yield,” said Nordea Bank chief strategist Jan von Gerich. “It was almost bound to happen.”

end
EU/USA
Trump to announce a new European trade announcement this afternoon allowing beef exports to the EU
(zerohedge)

Here Is What Trump’s Mysterious “European Trade Announcement” Will Be About

Global markets are reeling Friday morning after President Trump announced his plan to slap 10% tariffs on the remaining ~$300 billion in Chinese imports, sparking fears that the world’s two largest economies would hunker down for a prolonged and destabilizing trade war. But adding to the market’s anxieties, journalists noticed an entry on President Trump’s itinerary ominously titled “announcement on European trade” slated for 1:45 pm ET.

Of course, it’s difficult to imagine that a president as obsessed with the stock market as Trump would delivery such a brutal one-two punch to investor confidence by, say, slapping tariffs on European autos. But without any clarification, the worst fears of analysts were left to fester.

But in a report that nearly slipped under the radar, Bloomberg has apparently learned the purpose of Friday afternoon’s trade announcement. And it’s far less exciting than many had feared.

 

President Trump and Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer will announce a deal that will open the EU to more beef exports, something that will undoubtedly thrill the American beef industry which, like most of the American farming community, has firmly supported the president.

Here’s more from BBG:

U.S. President Donald Trump will formally announce a deal to open up the European Union to more beef exports after the bloc carved out quotas from other nations earlier this year, people familiar with the plans said.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and the European ambassador to the United States on Friday will sign an agreement to increase the amount of American beef that can be sold in the EU market, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity ahead of the announcement Friday.

Trump ’s daily itinerary for Friday includes “an announcement on EU Trade,” though the White House did not specify what the event was about. A White House spokesman and the USTR did not immediately respond to requests for comment late Thursday.

The deal, which has been in the works for months, follows the EU’s success in persuading Australia, Argentina and Uruguay to give up some of the market (with Trump’s tariff threats hanging over their heads, handing Trump a victory on trade was probably in Europe’s best interest).

Lighthizer called for a formal deal-signing ceremony to show that the administration is making progress on its trade agenda.

American farmers will be entitled to almost 80% – or 35,000 metric tons – of the annual EU quota on hormone-free beef over seven years, with an initial allocation of around 40%, European officials told reporters in June. The Trump administration in June secured more access to the European Union’s beef market after the bloc persuaded Australia, Argentina and Uruguay to cede chunks of the import quota.

According to people familiar with the announcement, Lighthizer called for the formal signing ceremony in an attempt to show progress on the bilateral trade agenda.

The deal is a huge win for American beef farmers, who lost out when the EU banned the import of meat from cattle exposed to growth hormones. The quotas were set to settle a transatlantic dispute over the ban, but gradually, US producers lost out to their rivals in Australia and South America.

The quota was set a decade ago to settle a transatlantic dispute over an EU ban on meat from cattle that were given growth hormones.

WTO rules required the volumes be made available to other nations that export beef, and Australia, Argentina and Uruguay gradually replaced the U.S. as the largest suppliers.

The timing of the announcement, which comes not only amid a flare-up in US-China relations but also not long after Trump threatened to tariff French wine in retaliation for taxes on American tech companies, is impossible to ignore, though it could bode well for the future bilateral trade relationship between the US and the bloc.

The announcement comes as Trump feuds with Europe over some trade issues, particularly with France. Trump has threatened to tariff French wine after that country imposed a tax on tech companies that will particularly impact American firms.

The US and EU are working on a limited trade agreement that would cut industrial tariffs but have reached an impasse over whether to include agriculture in the negotiations.

US President Donald Trump will formally announce a deal to open up the European Union to more beef exports after the bloc carved out quotas from other nations earlier this year, people familiar with the plans said.

Then again, there’s always the chance that Trump could use the opportunity to chide the EU about its abusive trade practices, or even introduce some new tariffs.

Because with Trump, nothing is ever set in stone, until it’s done.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel/Turkey /USA

It was Israel behind the move to stop the sale of F35 fighters to Turkey.  Israel was afraid of the Russian-Turkey alliance and that would not be good for Israel in their fight with Iran.

(ZERO HEDGE)

Israel Fought Behind The Scenes To Drop Turkey From US F-35 Program: Report

A new bombshell report making headlines in Israeli media alleges Tel Aviv went to great lengths to exert pressure on Washington to block the sale of US F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey.

“Israel worked behind the scenes to ensure the United States blocked the sale of its F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey as part of its efforts to preserve its military qualitative edge in the region,” The Times of Israel revealed Thursday, citing a prior Israeli Channel 12 report.

“Israel in recent months lobbied Washington to drop Ankara from the F-35 program after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan went ahead with a purchase of a Russian-made missile defense system that would give Turkey advanced air capabilities,” the report continued.

Though neither US nor Israeli officials have commented on the alleged lobbying campaign, it’s consistent with the fact that Israel has seen growing Russian-Turkish defense ties as a significant threat to both its anti-Iran policy and actions in Syria. And further, Ankara and Tel Aviv have a long history of clashing over Palestinian related issues.

Last month the White House announced Turkey has been effectively booted from the F-35 program for procuring Russia’s S-400 anti-air defense system, further entrenching Moscow’s growing influence and security arc in the Middle East.

Crucially, both Israel and Turkey were set to be the only countries outside the United States which possessed the advanced Lockheed-made fighter. But it appears Israel did its best to ensure it’d be the only one, as The Times of Israel noted:

Israel has agreed to purchase at least 50 F-35 fighter jets from the US defense contractor Lockheed Martin. So far, 16 aircraft have been delivered, and the remaining planes are slated to arrive batches of twos and threes until 2024.

Israel is the second country after the US to receive the F-35 from Lockheed Martin and one of the few allowed to modify the state-of-the-art aircraft, known in Israel as the Adir.

Compare this to the more than 100 Turkey was slated to receive at around $1.4 billion before the program was halted.

The White House has long been on record as saying the American fighter jet program “cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities.”

Aside from the more pressing issues of both Russian and Iranian entrenchment in Syria, and growing Russia-Turkey defense ties, Israel and Turkey also stand on opposite sides of the Kurdish question.

 

First batch of S-400 air defense system components were unloaded from a Russian transport aircraft at Murted military airport in Ankara, Turkey, on July 12, 2019.

While President Erdogan has lately reiterated plans to crush “outlawed” armed Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq, Israeli military and intelligence has over the past couple of years been rumored to be active in training and supporting these very groups alongside its US ally.

All of this and more translates to Tel Aviv viewing Turkey’s large-scale integration into the F-35 stealth program as a serious long term threat to its security interests in the region. 

end

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Venezuela/USA

This should be interesting:  Trump proposing a complete naval blockade on Venezuela despite Russia and China’s presence in the country

Asked About China & Iran In Venezuela, Trump Signals US “Blockade” Coming

How much more US “pressure” can be brought to bear on Venezuela after Washington early this year went so far as to back a failed military coup attempt? Perhaps the Syria treatment: after covert war comes the long “blockade” and economic squeeze precipitating total societal collapse. Perhaps this is what the White House now has in mind after mainstream media attention on Venezuela and its ‘alt-president’ Juan Guaido has dropped off a cliff, via Reuters:

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was considering a quarantine or blockade of Venezuela, as the United States steps up pressure on President Nicolas Maduro to relinquish power.

Is this in addition to the near total oil blockade on state-owned PDVSA? No details were given in the Thursday statement in terms of what such a “quarantine” or “blockade” would look like.

 

Pro-Maduro protesters blame the US for Venezuela’s ills. 

However, an interesting reference to powerful external backers of the Maduro government was made, bringing up the possibility of a “proxy war” situation developing, as we’ve discussed previously. Reuters continued:

Asked by a reporter whether he was considering such a measure, given the amount of involvement by China and Iran in Venezuela, Trump said: “Yes, I am.” He gave no details.

And there it is. While confirmation has remained murky, over the past months there’s been widespread reports of Chinese and Russian military advisers working with the Venezuelan national forces.

Many observers, however, consider recent Trump administration claims of a deep and extensive Hezbollah presence inside the Latin American socialist country a stretch. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has repeatedly made the charge since at least February.

A month ago Pompeo told Fox Business, “People don’t recognize that Hezbollah has active cells” in the country. “The Iranians are impacting the people of Venezuela and throughout South America. We have an obligation to take down that risk for America,” he said.

 

Image source: Voice of America

It’s unclear what it would mean for the US to “take down that risk” — but Trump has expressed an unwillingness for “military options” in Venezuela, even recently saying he was “bored” with meddling in such a complex geopolitical climate, according to reports.

Trump’s new comments in response to “China and Iran” being in Venezuela appear to be a continuation of this “Hezbollah presence” theme. For now, it appears Hezbollah could be for Venezuela what WMD was for Iraq under the Bush administration: a pretext for extreme sanctions and eventual war.

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1100 UP .0021 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.84 DOWN 0.599 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2121   DOWN   0.0002  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3222 UP .0009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 21 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1100 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 40.93 POINTS OR 1.41% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 647.12 POINTS OR 2.35%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,38%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 647.12 POINTS OR 2.35%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.93 POINTS OR 1.41%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 38% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 455.83  POINTS OR 2.11%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1436.25

silver:$16.17-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.86% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.39 DOWN 5  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.23 DOWN 13 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.30% DOWN 11 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.16%  DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.25%//DOWN 7 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,54 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 129 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.50% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.04% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1109  UP    .0030 or 30 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.66 DOWN .798 OR YEN UP 80  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2137 UP .0013 POUND UP 13  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 3 basis points to 1.3213

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

USA 10 year bond yield: DOWN 3 basis points from THURSDAY at 1.87 % //trading well BELOW the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.41 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.11 DOWN 26  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 177.81  0R.  2.34%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 380.71 POINTS OR 3.11%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 198.41 POINTS 3.57%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 140.60 POINTS or 1.56%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 520.05 POINTS OR 2.41%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 55.43 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 62.01 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    65.04  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.68 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 68 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.50 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.22//

 

 

BRENT :  61.27

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.84…deadly

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.38..deadly

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1106 ( UP 27   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.56 DOWN .880 (YEN UP 88 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.10 DOWN 27 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2155 UP 32  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.5559

 

 

the Russian rouble 65.22   DOWN 0.86 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 86 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3209 UP 4 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9405  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9767 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.50%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 98.64 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 81.31 POINTS OR 0.63%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.61 CLOSED DOWN .26

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.286%//libor NOW RISING

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Suffer Worst Week Of Year; Beans, Bonds, & The Buck Blitz’d

Tariffs, Turmoil, & Tantrums…

Since Powell dropped the “mid-cycle adjustment” mic, Bonds and Bullion have been bid, the dollar is practically unchanged and stocks have plunged (hurt more by Trump Tariffs)…

 

Chinese stocks were lower for the last three days with big caps worst and tech names the least bad… for now…

 

European stocks cratered today – the biggest single-day drop since Dec 2018 – with Germany and France leading the way lower on the week…

 

For the first time ever, Germany’s entire yield curve (30Y) traded with a negative yield…

10Y Bunds hit -50bps today!!!!

European banks crashed on the week to their lowest since Brexit vote (June 2016)

 

Broadly, this was the worst 3-day drop for US stocks since Christmas Eve and worst week of 2019… Stocks were  – as always – bid in the last hour… until Trump said “he could raise China tariffs to a much higher degree.” Nasdaq was the week’s biggest loser (and Dow lost the least of the majors)

The S&P closed below its Sept 2018 and May 2019 highs…

 

US equities plunged to critical technical levels:

  • S&P 500 tested its 50DMA (2927) and 100DMA (2900)
  • Nasdaq tested its 50DMA (7971) and 100DMA (7927)
  • Dow broke below its 50DMA (26472) and tested its 100DMA (26276)
  • Trannies broke below the 50DMA (10358) and 100DMA (10478) and tested its 200DMA (10281)
  • Small Caps broke below the 50DMA (1540) and 100DMA (1551) and tested its 200DMA (1520)

 

VIX topped 20.00 intraday today before fading back…

 

FANG Stocks were down every day this week (2nd worst week of the year)…

 

Cyclical stocks tumbled, their worst week of the year, dramatically underperforming defensives…

 

Bank stocks were battered, tracking the collapse of the curve…

 

Despite this week’s carnage, bonds and stocks remain dramatically decoupled…

 

Credit spreads blew wider on the week…

 

It was a bloodbath for bond bears this week (down 12-20bps across the curve with the long-end outperforming)…

 

10Y crashed to its lowest yield since before Trump’s election…This was the biggest 10Y Yield drop in a week since Dec 2014.

 

2Y yields were even crazier – initially spiking on Powell then crashing on Trump…

 

30Y Yields are back at their lowest since Oct 2016…

 

The yield curve (3m10Y) crashed to cycle lows…

 

And finally, before we leave bond-land, longer-term inflation expectations have fallen the most in the past two days since 2016, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates… a total policy-failure

 

Amid all the chaos, the dollar index ended the week only marginally higher after a huge round trip the last few days

…After a false breakout to the highest since May 2017)…

 

Cable suffered one of its worst weeks since Brexit, dropping to its lowest weekly close since May 1985…

 

Yuan dropped five of the last six days closing the week at its weakest since Dec 2016 (Yuan has only closed weaker than this twice before… ever)

 

Emerging Market FX has really collapsed the last few days (Turkey surprisingly outperformed)…

The biggest 3-day drop since Aug 2018 to its lowest since May…

 

Cryptos had a mixed week – best gains since June for Bitcoin as Ether and Litecoin scrambled back to even…

 

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000 and extended gains…

 

 

Copper was crushed on the week but Gold outperformed as crude rebounded after its worst day in years…

 

In fact, Dr.Copper has collapsed to two year lows… what does the PhD economist commodity know?

 

Ugly week for crude…

 

Gold topped CNH10,000 for the first time since Feb 2013…

 

Gold reached a new record high against the pound sterling…

 

Soybeans were monkeyhammered (worst week since Aug 2018) to their lowest since May after Trump tariff headlines…

 

Finally, you are here…

It’s different this time though – remember!

Different, because it’s way more ridiculous (negative-yielding debt tops $14 trillion!!)

And gold and crypto appear to be where investors are going to hide from this policy-maker pandemonium!!

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA/JOBS REPORT

Generally a poor report; only 164,000 jobs added..wage growth adds to .3% but hrs worked declined.  The market will not be kind to this

(zerohedge)

164K Jobs Added In July, Just As Expected, But Wage Growth Comes Hot

Heading into today’s payrolls report, there was some “whisper” expectation that the July print would be a blowout due to a spike in census hiring, however that did not happen and instead the BLS reported that last month 164K jobs were added, right on top of the 165K expected.

The strong headline print however, was weakened by substantial historical downward revisions, to wit: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 10,000 from +72,000 to +62,000, and the change for June was revised down by 31,000 from +224,000 to +193,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 41,000 less than previously reported.

What was perhaps most notable is that the report made no mention of hiring in advance of the 2020 census, and even more inexplicably federal payrolls rose just 2,000.

Looking at the 6 month moving average, it’s obvious that the US economy peaked some time in 2017 and is all downhill from there:

  • 2019: 124k
  • 2018: 222k
  • 2017: 227k
  • 2016: 176k
  • 2015: 205k
  • 2014: 233k
  • 2013: 154k
  • 2012: 135k

Offsetting the weaker downward revisions was the average hourly earnings which came in hotter than expected, as the monthly increase came in at 0.3%, above the 0.2% expected, while the annual increase of 3.3% was also above the 3.2% expected, and once again approaching the cycle highs.

Alas, not even this data point was strong as the only reason why hourly earnings rose is because average weekly hours worked dropped again, sliding to 34.3 from 34.4, the lowest since 2011.

Commenting on this development, Renaissance’s Neil Dutta said that the “drop in the workweek is disappointing. Aggregate hours worked up just 0.4% at an annual rate over the last three months.”

Meanwhile, the far less notable unemployment rate was unchanged from last month, at 3.7%, just above the 3.6% expected. Of note: Hispanic unemployment rose modestly to 4.5% if still near all time lows.

Manufacturing payrolls climbed larger-than-forecast 16,000, reflecting 7,200 job gains in the motor vehicle industry. This was the biggest increase in mfg jobs since January.

More good news: Business jobs which include real estate, insurance and finance, had the biggest gain since February 2018.

And even more good news: the number of people working part-time for economic reasons plunged by 363K to 3.984 million, the lowest since April 2006.

And now for some not so good news: the prime-age employment to population fell 0.2%pts from 79.7% to 79.5%,” notes Skanda Amarnath, director of research and analysis at the Employ America think-tan

Some more details from the report:

  • Professional and technical services added 31,000 jobs in July, bringing the 12-month job gain to 300,000. In July, employment increased by 11,000 in computer systems design and related services; this industry accounted for about one-third of employment growth in professional and technical services both over the month and over the year. It looks like everyone is learning to code.
  • Employment in health care rose by 30,000 over the month, reflecting a gain in ambulatory health care services  (+29,000).
  • Social assistance added 20,000 jobs in July.
  • Financial activities employment rose by 18,000, with most of the gain occurring in insurance carriers and related activities (+11,000).
  • Mining employment declined by 5,000 in July, after showing little net change in recent months.
  • Manufacturing employment changed little in July (+16,000) and thus far in 2019. Job gains in the industry had averaged 22,000 per month in 2018.

Commenting on the report, Bloomberg’s Eliza Winger writes that “The jobs data highlight the resilient labor markets, but the trend-like result is overshadowed by the latest escalation of trade tensions. Still, the more important aggregate income proxy remained relatively strong, supportive of sustained economic expansion.”

So how does this affect the Fed’s thinking or its reaction function? Well, it’s a toss up – on one hand, the headline NFP print should not impact thinking either way, although on the margin, the downward job revisions are likely to offset the increases in hourly earning which were entirely due to less hours worked, as such this might help the doves’ case for another insurance cut.

Additionally, as Bloomberg notes “the three-month payroll average increase of 140,000 was the slowest in almost two years, and that’s consistent with a slowing but still solid economy.” At the same time, there is no sign the job market is overheating, with the unemployment rate steady and labor-force participation rising. “That suggests a strong jobs market is drawing more people into work, which is a good thing”, and also suggests that the Fed has quite a bit of room to cut rates – if it so chooses – before pushing wage inflation sharply higher (if ever, considering the Phillips curve is now officially dead).

Here is CIBC’s Avery Shenfeld with a somewhat non-committal take: “The Fed cut rates without much evidence that the U.S. economy was in serious trouble, and that’s still the case after looking at July’s payrolls figures…the data are consistent with our call for just one more Fed cut, given that the U.S. actually needs to see growth no higher than 2% to avoid overheating the labor market.”

But the best analysis is probably that of Andrew Hunter who said that “overall, this report won’t be enough to move the needle much in either direction as far as a September rate cut is concerned, but it reinforces our sense that another move next month isn’t yet as sure a thing as the markets are now pricing in.”

END

The job numbers are a complete joke..multiple jobholder numbers soar to a record high.  Remember that if you hold 3 jobs that counts as 3 job numbers in the non farm payrolls. Interestingly enough, the labour participation report for the 55 year olds and higher were significantly increased as old timers just do not have enough money to retire on

(zerohedge)

Multiple Jobholders Soar To Record High As Old Americans Can’t Afford To Retire

While the headline payrolls number was solid and just as expected, if a more detailed read showed some red flags (downward revisions, rising wages only due to less hours worked), one aspect of today’s jobs report that will likely become a major talking point for Democrats and other critics of the Trump economy, is that the number of multiple-jobholders soared from 7.855 million in May, to 8.156 million in June, to a new all time of 8,389 million in July, a monthly increase of 233K and 591,000 higher in the past three months, which was a clear indication that the jobs number was far weaker than the headline represents if one excludes all those workers who represented two jobs to the BLS’ various surveys.

 

Yet even this number had its silver lining, because while the Establishment Survey’s 164K increase was impressive, at the same time the BLS reported that the number of Full-Time workers soared by 291K, which together with June’s 453K increase was a dramatic reversal to the trend so far in 2019, where 218K full time jobs had been lost in the January – May period. At the same time part-time jobs rose by only 54K in July, sending the part-time total for the first half to -133K, with most of the improvement thanks to the June number.

 

However, in keeping with the theme that a record number of workers need more than one job to make ends meet, the BLS reported that the labor force participation rate for workers 55 and old surged to the highest level in 7 years.

 

As Bloomberg notes, there are several explanations, with the more innocuous one that as Americans live longer compared with prior generations, they work more at an older age. Alas, the reality probably is that Americans simply haven’t saved enough for retirement, so there’s really no choice.

And now, back to the Fed’s schedule of rate cuts which will assure that even more savers have no choice but to work until they die, most likely while working on more than one job.

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/late morning

Stock loses accelerate as China warns that the USA will suffer more pain

(zerohedge)

Stock Losses Accelerate As China Warns “Temperamental” US “Will Suffer More Pain”

US equity markets are accelerating losses following confirmation, via a Chinese media op-ed, that the US-China trade war is drifting further away from a deal following Trump’s new tariffs.

 

Full China op-ed (via Global Times)

The US on Thursday unexpectedly announced on Twitter that starting September 1 it would impose a 10-percent tariff on an additional $300 billion in Chinese goods, following the resumed high-level China-US economic and trade consultations in late July in Shanghai. Both sides said the negotiations were “constructive” and mentioned China’s commitment to increase purchases of US agricultural products in their statements. It’s astonishing and inexplicable that the White House changed its tune overnight and is wielding the tariff stick once again. 

The US looks quite temperamental. It accused China of backtracking on a trade deal as Beijing insisted on some of its own demands. This time, the US faulted China for not stepping up to buy more US farm products. It threatened new tariffs once again, obviously hoping to deter China.

China regrets this new, unreliable behavior. Purchasing US agricultural products in bulk is a complicated commercial activity. From Chinese importers inquiring about prices to selling the goods to Chinese buyers, the process requires much coordination. Chinese officials have said several times that the purchases are in progress. But they are not as simple as buying a bag of peanuts in the supermarket.

Despite understanding the complexity of the negotiations, the US seems very anxious and impatient. However, differences between China and the US cannot be swiftly eliminated. As a Chinese proverb says, “Eat hot tofu slowly.”

China hopes to reach a trade deal with the US and has shown its goodwill to promote the resumption of trade talks. But China’s bottom line has become increasingly crystal-clear. Although the US is stronger than China and has more power in deciding whether to talk or not, China has set realistic negotiation goals for itself and has sought to staunchly protect its core interests.

The Chinese market needs US agricultural products, but it won’t make purchases for the sake of reaching a trade agreement with the US without prior consideration of how to sell and consume them. The purchase of several million tons of US soybeans to satisfy Chinese demand is not large, but if purchased under US tariff pressure, even one kilogram is unnecessary.

Reaching a trade deal is important, but ensuring that the negotiating process is equal and reasonable is also of great importance to China. China believes mutual respect and equality is essential to safeguarding national interests.

China and the US slipped into a two-month stalemate after Washington slapped new tariffs on Beijing in May. Attempts to intimidate China with tariffs are futile. The more tariffs on China, the more pain the US will suffer. This cannot be covered up by US lies against the basic laws of economics. US stocks plummeted after the new tariffs were announced. Investors know that the White House is bringing major uncertainties to the US economy once again.

China doesn’t want to return to a stalemate, but if that’s what the US wants, China has no other choice but to withstand it. US anxieties are now obvious. Should the new tariffs take effect, by no means will they bring China and the US closer to a trade deal. Instead, they will only move the two further away from a deal.

China believes that it’s better to talk than to fight. China also adheres to the principle that it must firmly strike back against any coercion. Of the two attitudes, which one does the US expect China to take in the coming days? That’s the White House’s choice.

Kudlow was quick to jump on the wires to support the President’s actions, saying that the administration “is looking forward to more China talks,” and added that Trump “is not satisfied with progress so far with China.” We suspect, that progress is about to come to a standstill.

ii)Market data/USA

not good..despite the tariffs, the uSA-China trade deficit hits a 5 month high

(zero hedge)

US-China Goods Trade Deficit Hits 5-Month High

Don’t tell President Trump…

Having seen ‘success’ at the start of the year with the trade deficit with China plunge (reduced deficit), the last three months – as tariff tensions have escalated, despite a so-called trade-truce – have seen the China trade deficit accelerate once again.

America’s merchandise trade deficit with China widened slightly in June to a five-month high.

As Bloomberg reports, so far this year, the U.S. merchandise deficit with China has narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $179.8 billion, compared with $200.4 billion in the same six months of 2018.

U.S. exports to China are down 18.1% this year, while imports have fallen 12.2%, a reflection of dwindling two-way trade.

More broadly, the overall trade deficit in June showed a slightly larger decline in the value of imports than exports, capping a quarter in which the shortfall weighed on economic growth. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a deficit of $54.6 billion.

The real petroleum gap narrowed to an all-time low of $5.7 billion as inflation-adjusted petroleum exports reached a record high of $23.3 billion.

END
As we have predicted, the uSA total trade deficit hardly moves in June despite the tariffs. It slightly lowers to 55.2 billion dollars for the June month. This is a negative to GDP
(Market Watch)

U.S. trade deficit falls slightly in June amid festering China dispute and softening global economy

Aug 2, 2019 8:31 a.m. ET

U.S. trade gap dips 0.3% to $55.2 billion in June from $55.3 billion

MarketWatch

President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, haven’t made much progress on trade talks to the detriment of the global economy.

The numbers: The nation’s trade deficit fell slightly in June owing to sizable drop in exports tied to a slowing global economy, reflecting a more challenging environment for the United States.

The deficit slid 0.3% to $55.2 billion from a revised $55.3 billion in June, the government said Friday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a $54.6 billion gap.

The trade deficit is running slightly ahead of last year’s near-record pace despite efforts by the Trump White House to reduce them. The president on Thursday threatened additional tariffs on virtually all Chinese goods owing to lack of progress in trade talks, roiling U.S. and international markets.

What happened: Exports declined 2.1% to $206.3 billion, marking the lowest level since December. The U.S. exported fewer autos, drugs and computer accessories.

One bright spot: Inflation-adjusted exports of U.S. oil hit an all-time high on the back of surging domestic production that’s reduced the need for foreign imports. The real trade deficit in petroleum was the lowest on record.

Imports dropped 1.7% to $261.5 billion. The U.S. imported less oil, drugs and cell phones.

The trade deficit with China was little changed at $30.2 billion. The gap with Mexico soared.

Big picture: The U.S. has run large trade deficits for decades and nothing has really changed. What has changed is the world economy: It’s gotten weaker in no small part due to the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and China.

The spat has disrupted global trade patterns, radiated damage to other countries and begun to harm U.S. economy as well. The world economy is likely to stumble along until the world’s two largest economies resolve their dispute.

-END-

USA factory orders contract for the 2nd month in a row
(zerohedge)

US Factory Orders Contract For 2nd Month In A Row As War-Spending Plunges

Having fallen for two straight months, and despite the decline of US (and the rest of the world’s) Manufacturing PMIs, expectations were for a rebound in Factory Orders in June and they did, rising 0.6% (buyt less than the expected 0.7% MoM gain following a major downward revision for May to a 1.3% drop).

  • New orders ex-trans rose 0.1% in June after falling 0.03% the prior month
  • New orders ex-defense for June rise 1.1% after falling 0.8% in May

However, this is the second month in a row of year-over-year factory order declines.

 

With a the biggest driver a slump in defense spending…

 

However, based on the lagged ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Factory Orders are set to tumble further…

 

And Trump’s latest tariffs are unlikely to help that situation… although war would help?

 END
Another bad data point: U. of Michigan confidence falters as middle income American hopes plunge
(zerohedge)

UMich Confidence Dips As Middle-Income Americans’ Hope Plunges

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment signaled a small downtick in July – despite soaring stock markets – but the confidence boost was very mixed across wealth cohorts.

While the highest income Americans became more confident in July, middle-income Americans’ confidence tumbled to 5-month lows…

However, as UMich points out, economic confidence has been remarkably stable since the start of 2017, despite ongoing trade uncertainties. The resilience displayed has been primarily due to a renewed sense of personal financial optimism. Indeed, recent surveys have recorded the most favorable net personal financial expectations since May 2003.

Positive job and income prospects, gains in net household wealth, and low inflation have bolstered optimism. At present, consumers do not anticipate a rapid acceleration in income growth rates, nor do they expect significant changes in inflation and unemployment rates. Consumers have not ignored mounting policy uncertainties as they have begun to take precautionary measures to increase savings and reduce debt. Favorable buying attitudes toward homes and vehicles have significantly receded from their cyclical peaks despite declining interest rates.

Finally, as UMich notes, a key issue is whether the recently announced tariffs on Chinese imports, covering more commonly purchased consumer items, will spark an even more cautious outlook.

END

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

An excellent commentary from Stefan Gleason.  He wonders if Trump might engage in currency intervention to get the dollar down and help with the trade deficit.

a good read..

(courtesy Stefan Gleason)

After Fed Disappoints, Will Trump Initiate Currency Intervention?

— Published: Friday, 2 August 2019

– Stefan Gleason

Following months of cajoling by the White House, the Federal Reserve finally cut its benchmark interest rate. However, the reaction in equity and currency markets was not the one President Donald Trump wanted – or many traders anticipated.

The Trump administration wants the Fed to help drive the fiat U.S. dollar lower versus foreign currencies, especially those of major exporting countries.

Instead, the U.S. Dollar Index rallied throughout July ahead of the expected rate cut and continued rallying after Fed chairman Jerome Powell made it official on Wednesday.

In fact, the Federal Reserve Note broke out to its highest level since early 2017.

The Fed also announced it would end its balance sheet reduction program a month earlier than originally scheduled.

These dovish policy changes apparently weren’t dovish enough. The central bank could have gone for a 50-basis-point cut instead of the more routine quarter point cut it delivered. It could also have announced a new Quantitative Easing program.

Perhaps the biggest market-moving disappointment (equity bearish, dollar bullish) was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell shooting down the idea of an extended rate-cutting cycle.

In his press conference, he described the cut as “mid-cycle adjustment” that didn’t necessarily imply follow-up cuts.

As he often does, President Trump vented his displeasure via a tweet: “What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve was that this was the beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate-cutting cycle which would keep pace with China, The European Union and other countries around the world….”

Trump is certainly correct in his observation that Europe and other regions are far outpacing of the U.S. in terms of ultra- accommodative monetary policy.

Several countries have now gone to negative interest rate policy. An estimated $13 trillion in negative-yielding bonds now sits in the accounts of holders who are apparently content with losing money at a fixed rate.

Gold and Silver Show Strength in All Currencies

The upshot is that gold and silver have recently been breaking out in terms of euros, yen, yuan, and other foreign currencies.

Precious metals have also fared quite well in terms of Federal Reserve Notes. Even though the Dollar Index rose more than 2% in July, gold managed to come out of the month with a 2% gain. Silver put on an even more impressive 7% advance.

Precious metals are rallying versus all currencies, a good harbinger of a major bull market ahead. When our currency finally turns down, the recent strength in metals could be amplified – big league.

Trump Administration Contemplates Intervening in Currency Markets

As our centrally planned monetary system is currently set up, it’s the responsibility of the Treasury Department – not the Federal Reserve – to manage the value of the U.S. dollar versus foreign currencies.

Toward that end, the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund has the power to carry out both direct and indirect market interventions.

The idea of manipulating our currency value in foreign exchange markets has been discussed by the White House. The idea was recently rejected – at least publicly.

According to a July 26th Bloomberg story, “President Donald Trump has rejected, for now, the idea of aggressive currency intervention that could give the U.S. an edge with its trading partners by weakening the dollar.”

Bloomberg further notes, “officials weighed proposals to publicly talk down the dollar’s value or weaken the greenback by intervening in currency markets using Treasury’s $94 billion exchange stabilization fund.”

Treasury Steven Mnuchin apparently talked Trump out of pursuing a currency manipulation/counter-manipulation scheme. But that was before Jay Powell (who was appointed to the Fed at Mnuchin’s recommendation) came out with a policy statement that pushed the greenback to a two-year high.

Trump could be running out of patience as he fears his re-election campaign will run out of time before voters see any beneficial fruits of his trade battles.

Even if he was talked out of making currency intervention a formal policy of the administration, that doesn’t mean it won’t be carried out anyway behind the scenes, through secret Treasury department operations.

Meanwhile, the Fed is in easing mode with odds still favoring another rate cut by September. No other major central bank is looking to tighten. It’s a race to the bottom.

Regardless of whether Europe, China, Japan, or the United States “wins” by undercutting its currency more than the others, precious metals and commodities will serve as objective measures of value.

Gold, by breaking out to a multi-year high when priced in Federal Reserve Notes and continuing to advance despite its strength versus other fiat currencies, is sending an important message to investors. Namely, it is quite possible to lose real value by holding wealth in a nominally appreciating currency.

Stefan Gleason is President of Money Metals Exchange, a precious metals dealer recently named “Best in the USA” by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of the University of Florida, Gleason is a seasoned business leader, investor, political strategist, and grassroots activist. Gleason has frequently appeared on national television networks such as CNN, FoxNews, and CNBC and in hundreds of publications such as the Wall Street Journal, The Street, and Seeking Alpha.

-END-

iv) Swamp commentaries

Ironic! Elijah Cummings Baltimore home is robbed

(zerohedge)

Elijah Cummings’ Baltimore Home Is Robbed

The Baltimore home of Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD) was burglarized early Saturday morning, according to CBS Baltimore.

 

The break-in at Cummings’ residence on the 2000 block of Madison Avenue occurred at around 3:40 a.m. according to police. It is unclear whether anything was taken from the property.

According to Fox News, the reported break-in came around four hours before President Trump blasted Cummings over Twitter for representing a “disgusting, rat and rodent infested mess.”

 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Rep, Elijah Cummings has been a brutal bully, shouting and screaming at the great men & women of Border Patrol about conditions at the Southern Border, when actually his Baltimore district is FAR WORSE and more dangerous. His district is considered the Worst in the USA……

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….As proven last week during a Congressional tour, the Border is clean, efficient & well run, just very crowded. Cumming District is a disgusting, rat and rodent infested mess. If he spent more time in Baltimore, maybe he could help clean up this very dangerous & filthy place

“If he spent more time in Baltimore, maybe he could help clean up this very dangerous & filthy place,” the president added.

Congressional security officials are investigating whether the break-in was a random crime or if there is a threat “nexus” tied to Cummings due to Trump’s comments. However, a source with knowledge of the investigation told Fox News there was “no skullduggery” when asked if the break-in had any relation to the president’s remarks.

Fox News has obtained a memo sent to House offices the day before the break-in regarding Congressional security over the August recess. The memo from House Sergeant at Arms Paul Irving reminds lawmakers of “the significance of maintaining an enhanced security awareness in your district.” –Fox News

“Members and staff should always remain vigilant of their surroundings and immediately report anything unusual or suspicious to the relevant law enforcement or police entity,” wrote Irving. “I also recommend a notification to the USCP [U.S. Capitol Police] or my office so that we may coordinate any review with the relevant law enforcement agency.”

END

Looks like the UK is in trouble with this: many secret texts between the UK and FBI/CIA sources trying to undermine Trump

(zerohedge)

UK “Up To Its Neck” In RussiaGate Affair, Secret Texts Reveal British Role In Trump Coup Effort

While hysteria raged about possible Russian “interference” in the 2016 US election, British intelligence officials were secretly playing a “key role” in helping instigate investigations into Donald Trump, secret texts have shown.

“Turns out it was Britain that was the foreign country interfering in American affairs,” former MP George Galloway told RT, speaking about the new revelations published by the Guardian about early British involvement in the ‘Russiagate’ investigation.

The Guardian reported on texts between former deputy FBI director Andrew McCabe and Jeremy Fleming, his then counterpart at MI5, who now heads GCHQ. The two men met in 2016 to discuss “our strange situation”– an apparent reference to Russia’s alleged interference in US domestic politics.

British intelligence “appears to have played a key role in the early stages,” the report said.

Galloway told RT that the revelation was not surprising because people “already knew” that British intelligence had played a part in the Russia-related investigations in the US. He recalled that it was former British spy Christopher Steele who drew up the now-infamous Steele dossier, which made multiple unverifiable and salacious claims about Trump and has since been largely discredited.

Britain is “up to its neck in the whole Russiagate affair,” he said.

The texts also reveal that the Brexit vote was viewed by some in the FBI as something that had been influenced by Russia.

Asked what the UK stood to gain by trying to implicate Russia in a US election scandal at a time when then-foreign secretary Boris Johnson was dismissing baseless claims of Russian interference in the Brexit campaign, Galloway noted that Johnson’s comments on Russia have appeared to strangely sway between friendly and antagonistic.

Johnson is like “a sofa that bears the impression of the last person to sit upon him,” the former MP quipped. What happens next will depend on who is leading the tango, “the orange man in Washington or the blonde mop-head in London.”

In June 2016, the FBI opened a covert investigation codenamed ‘Crossfire Hurricane’ into Trump’s now disproven collusion with Moscow, which was later taken over by special counsel Robert Mueller.

Ultimately, the two-year-long probe that followed came up short, producing no evidence to prove a conspiracy or collusion between Trump campaign officials and Russia.

end

I have always stated that Tulsi Gabbard is the right candidate for President but wrong party.  She is going after the Deep State

(Tom Luongo)

The Empire Is Coming For Tulsi Gabbard

Authored by Tom Luongo via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

The second debate among Democratic hopefuls was notable for two things. The lack of common decency of most of them and Tulsi Gabbard’s immense, career-ending attack on Kamala Harris’ (D-Deep State) record as an Attorney General in California.

Harris came out of the first debate the clear winner and Gabbard cut her down to size with one of the single best minutes of political television since Donald Trump told Hillary Clinton, “Because you’d be in jail.”

Gabbard’s takedown of Harris was so spot on and her closing statement about the irresponsible nature of the Trump Administration’s foreign policy was so powerful she had to be actively suppressed on Twitter.

And, within minutes of the debate ending the media and the political machines moved into overdrive to smear her as a Russian agent, an Assad apologist and a favorite of the alt-right.

Now, folks, let me tell you something. I write and talk about Gabbard a lot and those to the right of me are really skeptical of her being some kind of plant for Israel or the establishment. If she were truly one of those she wouldn’t have been polling at 1% going into that debate.

She would have been promoted as Harris’ strongest competition and served up for Harris to co-opt.

That is not what happened.

No, the fact that Gabbard is being smeared as viciously and baselessly as she is by all the right people on both the left and the right is all the proof you need that she is 1) the real deal and 2) they are scared of her.

When Lindsey Graham tweets about Tulsi Gabbard twice after a debate, when the Washington Post neocons like Josh Rogin are attacking her, you know she’s got their panties in a bunch.

You expect it from the Harris camp, obviously. But when it comes directly from people like Navid Jamali (double agent, navy intelligence, MSNBC contributor) you know the empire is beginning to get worried.

Naveed Jamali

@NaveedAJamali

Like Jill Stein and Donald Trump, Gabbard is counting on Russian support. This is why she won’t criticize Assad. This is what we’ve become. An election rife with foreign influence. This is how they attack our election security, not by hacking, but by doing this. https://twitter.com/jamilsmith/status/1156832983875067904 

Jamil Smith

@JamilSmith

Replying to @JamilSmith

This is @TulsiGabbard responding when Anderson Cooper brought up the Harris rebuke about Assad. She defends meeting with him, but watch how she reacts when Cooper asks her whether she considers Assad a “torturer or a murderer.” Her answer is disqualifying.

Embedded video

Gabbard is now getting the Ron Paul treatment. It will only intensify from here. They will come after her with everything they have.

In the past week she’s destroyed Kamala Harris on national TV, sued Google for electioneering and signed onto Thomas Massie’s (R-KY) bill to audit the Federal Reserve. What does she do next week, end the Drug War?

Tulsi Gabbard is admittedly a work in progress. But what I see in her is something that has the potential to be very special. She’s young enough to be both passionately brave and willing to go where the truth takes her.

And that truth has taken her where Democrats have feared to tread for more than forty years: the US Empire.

The entire time I was growing up the prevailing wisdom was Social Security was the third rail of US politics. That, like so many other pearls of wisdom, was nonsense.

The true third rail of US politics is empire. Any candidate that is publicly against the empire is the enemy of not only the state, it’s quislings in the media, the corporations who profit from it and the party machines of both the GOP and the DNC.

That is Gabbard’s crime. And it’s the only crime that matters.

When the Empire is on the line, left and right in the US close ranks and unite against the threat. The good news is that all they have is their pathetic Russia bashing and appeals to their authority on foreign policy.

Foreign policy, by the way, that most people in America, frankly, despise.

And the response to her performance at the second debate was as predictable as the sun rising in the east. It’s also easily countered. Gabbard will face an uphill battle from here and we’ll find out in the coming weeks just how deep into Trump Derangement Syndrome the average Democrat voter is.

If she doesn’t begin climbing in the polls then the Democrats are lost. They will have signed onto crazy Progressivism and more Empire in their lust to destroy Donald Trump. But they will lose because only a principled anti-imperialist like Gabbard can push Trump back to his days when he was the outsider in the GOP debates, railing against our stupid foreign policy.

No one else in the field would be remotely credible on this point. It’s the area where Trump is the weakest. He’s not weak on women’s rights, racism, gay rights or any of the rest of the idiotic identity politics of the rest of the Democratic field.

He’s weakest on the one issue that got him elected in the first place, foreign policy. Hillary was the candidate of Empire. Trump was not. It’s why we saw an international conspiracy formed to destroy him and his presidency. Now that same apparatus is mobilized against Tulsi Gabbard.

That’s good. As a solider she knows that when you’re taking flak you are over your target. Now let’s hope she’s capable of sustaining herself to push this election cycle away from the insanity the elite want to distract us with and make it about the only thing keeping the world from healing, ending the empire of chaos.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

ESUs rallied from their tumble early on Wednesday night until peaking late during the Nikkei’s 2nd Session.  The 19-handle rally then turned into a 12-handle decline by the European Open.  Another rally appeared as traders poured into ESUs and European stocks.  Two hours later, ESUs retreated 12-handles; but they rallied on the NYSE open.

The same pattern of buying early for the Asian, European and US openings occurred.  Traders played the bullish pattern/bias that appears to start the month.

ESUs soared from 2977.75 at 9:13 to 3005.50 by 10:34 ET.  The rally was largely the work of traders.  Proof: FANGs soared, jumping 1.25% by the end of the first hour of trading.  The rabid buying of trading sardines pushed the Nasdaq 1.25% higher by the end of the first hour of the session.  Possibly, soft US manufacturing PMIs induced buying on the old ‘bad econ news will force the Fed to cut rates’ bromide.

The DJTA was down 30 points at the end of the first hour of trading.  Bonds were up over a buck.

The Dow Gains 255 Points Because More Bad News Could Be Good for Stocks

https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-manufacturing-data-51564676491

US Construction Spending declined 1.3% in June.  +0.3% was expected.  Full report at link:

https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf?CID=CBSM+EI

U.S. Manufacturing Gauge Eased in July to Almost Three-Year Low

The Institute for Supply Management’s index eased to 51.2 last month from 51.7 in June… the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a July reading of 52… manufacturing makes up only about 11% of the U.S. economy… A separate factory index from IHS Markit came in at 50.4 on Thursday…A gauge of producers’ order backlogs retreated by 4.3 points to 43.1, a sign manufacturers have ample capacity to meet demand.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-01/u-s-manufacturing-gauge-eased-in-july-to-almost-three-year-low

ISM report highlights – Did retooling for 2020 auto model production occur?

  • New orders rose to 50.8 from 50
  • Production fell to 50.8 from 54.1
  • Employment fell to 51.7 from 54.5
  • Deliveries rose to 53.3 from 50.7
  • Inventories rose to 49.5 from 49.1
  • Prices Paid sank to 45.1 from 47.9

Full ISM Report: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pmi-at-51-2-july-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-300892730.html

Gauge of US manufacturing hits lowest since September 2009, raising concerns about the economy

The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4 in July, down from 50.6 in June, driven by a weaker demand. The firm also noted managers’ signaled slower hiring.  A gauge of employment within the report fell to the lowest since mid-2013 in July…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/gauge-of-us-manufacturing-hits-lowest-since-september-2009-raising-concerns-about-the-economy.html

Boeing’s travails and the normal July automaker shutdowns are weighing on US manufacturing.

We pointed out earlier this week that July NFP usually declines by over 1.1 million.  So, the lower ISM employment, possibly on retooling and the usual summer shutdowns, should not be a surprise or concern.

From Tuesday’s King Report: The July Employment Report has the capacity of surprising to the upside because there is normally a very large loss of jobs in July.  Last year, the BLS reported that 1.114 million jobs were lost in July NSA.  Ergo, there is a very large positive seasonal adjustment to July NFP.  With the expectation of 1.1+ million jobs disappearing, a modest to moderate positive deviation could generate a large July NFP gain.

2018 Total nonfarm over-the-month change, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total nonfarm over-the-month change 1,015 977 702 -1,114 505 340 1,060 522 -172

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

For July 2018, the BLS reported 178k NFP seasonally adjusted.  Ergo, the seasonal adjustment was +178k + 1,114k or +1.292 million jobs.

North American Light-Vehicle Production Reaches Best-Ever July Result – Automakers boosted production to manage inventory as sales remain high and plant retooling shutdowns are planned.

    The Detroit Three posted 22.3% growth in monthly LV output, totaling 671,549, according to WardsAuto estimates. Chrysler’s builds soared 45.4% from last year to 219,604, a July record for the automaker. Ford and General Motors also posted significant gains, up 14.3% and 12.9%, respectively.

https://www.wardsauto.com/industry/north-american-light-vehicle-production-reaches-best-ever-july-result

If the above story is correct, automaker employment could be higher than expected in July due to higher production than the historic norm due in part to delays in retooling.

General Motors Co. shares jumped as much as 3.9% in New York on Thursday after results topped expectations, amid a tough global climate for automotives..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-01/gm-s-time-to-shine-approaches-as-results-defy-global-decline

GM plans 10 weeks of downtime this year for plant retooling    April 12, 2017

The downtime is in addition to GM’s annual summer plant shutdown period in early July…

https://www.autonews.com/article/20170412/OEM01/170419923/gm-plans-10-weeks-of-downtime-this-year-for-plant-retooling

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is expected to begin retooling its Windsor minivan plant in Canada this summer to add an all-wheel drive powertrain to the Chrysler Pacifica minivan, according to a senior union official.  Dave Cassidy, president of Unifor Local 444, said the Windsor Assembly Plant could go down for an additional three weeks following a two-week summer shutdown slated for the weeks of July 8 and 15… https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/five-week-retool-awd-pacifica-expected-fca-windsor-plant-union-says

At midday, ESUs & stocks tumbled when DJT said he would impose a new 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

@realDonaldTrump: Our representatives have just returned from China where they had constructive talks having to do with a future Trade Deal. We thought we had a deal with China three months ago, but sadly, China decided to re-negotiate the deal prior to signing. More recently, China agreed to buy agricultural product from the U.S. in large quantities, but did not do so. Additionally, my friend President Xi said that he would stop the sale of Fentanyl to the United States – this never happened, and many Americans continue to die! Trade talks are continuing, an during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country. This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already Tariffed at 25%.  We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one!

CNBC’s @EamonJavers: A White House official tells me this Tweet comes in the wake of an 11:30 meeting this morning at which President Trump got a report from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on their meetings in Shanghai this week.

After the midday plunge, ESUs and stocks tried to stage an afternoon rally.  It failed.  A last-hour rally attempt, abetted by expectations of start-of-August buying, lasted 24 minutes.  Ten minutes before the close, DJT said he is not concerned about the stock market decline; Xi is not moving fast enough; China devalues its currency; the new tariff can be expanded beyond 10%; and he will ‘tax’ China until a trade deal is made.  DJT: “If they don’t want to trade with us anymore, that would be fine with me.” – WSJ

Bonds and gold soared when stocks tanked at midday.  Oil, already down, plunged to an 8.3% loss.  The odds of a 25bps rate cut at the September 18 FOMC Meeting jumped to 95%.

Prospective Fed nominee Shelton says global economy in ‘very dangerous situation’ like 1930s

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/prospective-fed-nominee-shelton-global-economy-in-very-dangerous-situation-like-1930s.html

The Senate approved a two-year $2.7T budget deal and two-year debt ceiling suspension in a 67 to 28 vote.  Trump is expected to sign the bill.

Another reminder that Trump has made some horrendous hires: Gary Cohn: Trump’s trade war with China is hurting the US economy more [But Jared recommended him!]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/gary-cohn-trumps-trade-war-with-china-is-hurting-the-us-economy-more.html

The fact that the Fed had to end QT within one year proves that Bernanke lied or was very dumb when he assured Congress and Americans that QE provided ‘temporary’ reserves and could be easily unwound.

Was Ben Bernanke Lying or Just Wildly Mistaken?

Was Ben Bernanke lying or just wildly mistaken when he claimed the Federal Reserve wasn’t monetizing the debt in the early days of the financial crisis?… He said the Treasurys would only remain on the Fed’s balance sheet temporarily. He assured Congress that once the crisis was over, the Federal Reserve would sell the bonds it bought during the emergency.

https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/was-ben-bernanke-lying-or-just-wildly-mistaken/

On normalizing the balance sheet, Bernanke told senators the Fed could exit without ever selling into the market by letting its bond holdings run off and increasing the interest it pays on excess reserves…

https://www.businessinsider.com/live-ben-bernanke-senate-testimony-2013-2

Central banks make record $15.7bn gold purchases – in the first six months of the year…

https://www.ft.com/content/b62ebb1a-b3a6-11e9-bec9-fdcab53d6959

Last night, from BBG: Trump ruled out Mnuchin proposal to warn China of new tariffs

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-01/trump-ruled-out-mnuchin-proposal-to-warn-china-of-new-tariffs

It’s possible that Trump realizes that in a regard to the politics of a China-US trade deal:

  • A mediocre deal hurts DJT for 2020
  • A great deal helps DJT modestly for 2020 but removes a Fed excuse to cut rates
  • No deal allows DJT to continue warn that China is waiting for a Dem to roll – and China has already bought Biden via the $1.5B that they gave to Biden’s son.  Editor’s Best Choice

DJT at rally last night: “Democrats want to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on illegal migrants instead of supporting their own struggling communities. No good.

Today – The stock market major reversal to the downside to start August confirms that the daily trend is now down.  Obviously, the July Employment Report will impact early trading.  Barring an unexpectedly large or small NFP, the initial market reaction should be short lived.

Bloomberg reports that Larry Kudlow will appear on its network at 9:30 ET.  Surely, Uncle Lar will spin the July Employment Report and US-China trade negotiations.  Remember: Team Trump loves to issue positive verbal intervention on Fridays – good vibes for the weekend and to start the new week.

It’s a summer Friday, so activity should subside as absenteeism increases ahead of the weekend.

Japan has decided to remove South Korea from a list of trusted export destinations, escalating tensions between the two U.S. allies   https://bloom.bg/2KccvqH

The DOJ will not prosecute ex-FBI Director James Comey for leaking memos to the press, after a referral from the department’s watchdog, a source tells Fox News

 

The Dem debate on Wednesday night was so bad that the WaPo slammed Dems en masse.

 

WaPo: Who will defeat Trump? Democrats squabble for two hours, provide no message of hope and miss an opportunity, Post columnist writes. – It seemed almost as if the Democrats had decided to put their worst face forward…

 

Democrats baffled as 2020 candidates go on the attack — against Obama   https://trib.al/Nhb8P8G

 

Biden stumbles over statistics, phrases, and titles in 2020 debate [Joe said the US can’t afford 8 more years of Trump.]  https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biden-stumbles-over-statistics-phrases-and-titles-in-2020-debate

 

Reuters: Biden debate gaffe sends viewers in digital circles

Joe Biden bungled his closing statement in Wednesday’s debate by telling voters to go to a campaign website that did not exist, a college student was using the URL for a spoof election bid…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-debate-biden/biden-debate-gaffe-sends-viewers-in-digital-circles-idUSKCN1UR3JQ

 

NYT’s Frank Bruni: Debate Disappointment: I Wanted So Much More from Joe Biden

And I find myself fretting that none of these Democrats can beat Donald Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/01/opinion/democratic-debate-biden-harris.html

 

Tulsi Gabbard takes on Kamala Harris and other viral moments from CNN’s Democratic debate

Gabbard said she was “deeply concerned” about Harris’ record as California State Attorney General, alleging Harris “put over 1,500 people in jail for marijuana,” “blocked evidence that would have freed an innocent man from death row until the courts forced her to do so,” and “kept people in prison beyond their sentences to use them as cheap labor for the state of California.”…

https://www.cleveland.com/entertainment/2019/08/tulsi-gabbard-takes-on-kamala-harris-and-other-viral-moments-from-cnns-democratic-debate.html

 

Kamala Harris’ Press Secretary Blames RUSSIA for Tulsi Gabbard’s Debate Smackdown

https://hannity.com/media-room/here-we-go-kamala-harris-press-secretary-blames-russia-for-tulsi-gabbards-debate-smackdown/

 

The WaPo is now a parody piece: Even one of Trump’s favorite foods has a hidden Russia connection

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/even-one-of-trumps-favorite-foods-has-a-hidden-russia-connection/2019/07/29/69d594f0-a1a4-11e9-bd56-eac6bb02d01d_story.html

 

Op-ed in NYT: Why Are Democrats Defending Al Sharpton? – They’ve handed Trump an easy win and yoked themselves to a genuine bigot.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/31/opinion/al-sharpton-trump.html

 

@HellgrenWJZ: Congressman Elijah Cummings home broken into. Baltimore police investigating

 

@JackPosobiec: While CNN was calling Trump a racist for criticizing the crime in Elijah Cummings’ district last weekend, Elijah Cummings’ home was being broken into and burglarized by criminals

end

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter of uSAWatchdog

Trump Trade, Fed Cut, Trump Wins in Court

By Greg Hunter On August 2, 2019

Trump hit China with new tariffs this week on $300 billion of goods. His trade negotiation team came back from China without a deal and no deal in site. The tariffs go along with the 25% tariffs already on more than $200 billion in Chinese made goods. They say consumers in America are paying for it, but Trump says China is paying. According to one economist, it amounts to only .1% in higher prices. So, there is not much damage being done no matter what the MSM is saying.  What is trump really up to on China Trade?

The Fed cut a key rate by .25% this week as an “insurance cut,” and the market sold off. President Trump has said the Fed has not done enough and has been critical of the Fed raising rates for the past year. Are more rate cuts coming? Experts like Gregory Mannarino of TradersChoice.net say yes. Is the economy in worse shape than people think?

President Trump has won two big court battles recently. The Supreme Court ruled in his favor about using Defense Department money to build a wall last week. This week, Trump also won big time in New York Federal Court when a judge appointed, by Clinton, dismissed a lawsuit by the DNC concerning Russia and WikiLeaks. Trump says “The Witch Hunt Ends!”

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

:

Well that is all for today

I will see you Monday night.

 

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