AUGUST 1/WHAT A DAY!!//GOLD AND SILVER REVERSE ON TRUMP TARIFFS ON CHINA!//GOLD DOWN $4.95 TO $1420.50 (COMEX TO COMEX) AND SILVER IS DOWN 23 CENTS TO $16.17//IN ACCESS MARKET TRADING: GOLD LAST AT $1443//SILVER AT $/CHINA THREATENING TO INVADE NOT ONLY HONG KONG BUT MAYBE TAIWAN?//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1420.50  DOWN $4.90(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

Silver$16.17 DOWN 23 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

Gold : $1445.10

 

silver:  $16.36

It is a rare day to see gold and silver whacked  and then suddenly reverse to go green.  This is called an outside upside reversal. Very rare to see this in the precious metals.

Tomorrow is non farm payrolls and let us see if the crooks try and whack again. Lately they have had their fingers burnt to a crisp.

YOUR DATA…

 

COMEX DATA

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 952/2773

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,426.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/31/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 08/02/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 88
132 C SG AMERICAS 18
323 H HSBC 2301
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 373 952
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
686 C INTL FCSTONE 12 58
690 C ABN AMRO 24 484
737 C ADVANTAGE 14 59
800 C MAREX SPEC 4 25
880 H CITIGROUP 1093
905 C ADM 24 13
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 2,773 2,773
MONTH TO DATE: 3,573

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 2773 NOTICE(S) FOR 2773 OZ (8.625 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  3573 NOTICES FOR 357,300 OZ  (11.11 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

188 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 940,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 885 for   4,425,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9880 DOWN 200 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10252 UP 170

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 2833 CONTRACTS FROM 239,059 DOWN TO 236,226 WITH THE 14 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. THE BANKERS COVERED SOME OF THEIR SHORTS.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 938 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  938 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 938 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 948 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.69 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 14 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.065 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY

 

WE HAD CONSIDERABLE COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY:

938 CONTRACTS (FOR 1 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 938 CONTRACTS) OR 4.69 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 938 CONTRACTS OR 4.69 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY:  4.69 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 0.67% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1337.92   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2833, WITH THE 14 CENT DROP IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 938 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED: 1895 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 938 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2833  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 14 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.40 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.182 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 168% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 188 NOTICE(S) FOR 940,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ//AUGUST:  6.250 MILLION OZ//
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 786 CONTRACTS, TO 564,084 DESPITE THE  $3.90 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION WILL NOW COMMENCE FOR SILVER..AS THE LIQUIDATION PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD HAS NOW STOPPED 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 11,115 CONTRACTS: AUGUST 2019: 100 CONTRACTS, DEC>  11,015 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 564,084,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG  GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,901 CONTRACTS: 786 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 11,115 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 11,901 CONTRACTS OR 1,190,100 OZ OR 37.01 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A  LOSS OF $3.90 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 37.01  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER. WE ARE NOW OUT OF THE LIQUIDATION PHASE IN GOLD AS WE MORPH INTO THE ACCUMULATION PHASE FOR SILVER: 

 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 11,115 CONTRACTS OR 1,111,500 oz OR 34.57 TONNES (1 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 11,115 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 34.57 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 34.57/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.97% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3545.74  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 786 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($3.90)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11,115 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,115 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 11,191 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

11,115 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 786 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 37.01 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.90 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED WITH SPREADING ACCUMULATION OF SILVER OI CONTRACTS AS WE HAVE ENTERED THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST. 

 

 

 

we had:  2773 notice(s) filed upon for 277,300 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

TWO BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY:

I) THIS MORNING:  A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID EARLY THIS MORNING

II) THIS AFTERNOON: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF GOLD!!

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2933 CONTRACTS from 239,059 DOWN TO 236,226 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JULY: 0 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 938  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 938 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2833  CONTRACTS TO THE 938 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1895 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9.48MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.885 MILLION OZ  AND AUGUST AT 6.250 MILLION OZ SO FAR. 

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 14 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 938 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.74 POINTS OR 0.81%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 212.05 POINTS OR 0.76%   /The Nikkei closed UP 19.46 POINTS OR 0.07%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .36%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9017 /Oil UP TO 57.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9017 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9122 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C  CHINA

i)China/USA

This is not good as  China is accusing the USA of fomenting the Hong Kong protests

(zerohedge)

ii)It sure looks like China will invade Hong Kong.  Check to mr Trump!

(zerohedge)
iii)Xi planning to unify the Mainland with Taiwan?
(zerohedge)
iv)CHINA//USA
For those of you who think it was just Trump going on a rampage with his tweet initializing tariffs against China..guess again. With Trump in his meeting was Mnuchin, Mulvaney, Navarro and Kudlow.
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

i)With the Brexit weighing heavily on the UK, the Bank of England keeps rates unchanged at .75%.  It refuses to even consider what will happen if there is a “no deal” Brexit.  Cable plummets

(zerohedge)

ii)Europe

August is a big month for Europe to go on vacation.  Inflation has ripped many and as such many Europeans cannot afford a vacation

(zerohedge)

iii)UK/USA
Bill Blain explains the stupidity of Powell’s “adjustment” rate cut.  He also comments on the “no deal” Brexit which seems to be fomenting
(courtesy Bill Blain)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Turkey

A super commentary explaining to us the huge problems that Europe will face if they allow Turkey into the EU fold. The problem of course is the 3.5 migrants still housed inside Turkey.  If they do allow Turkey into the fold 11 million poor Turks will cross into Europe.  Also the Kurds will flee to Germany.  On the other side of the coin, the release of 3.5 migrants into Europe will kill the 28 nation accord financially

(Kern/Gatestone)

ii)Iran/Strait of Hormuz.//Oil tankers

As tensions flare up between the uSA and Iran more ships are turning off their transponders and thus “going dark”
as they proceed through the Strait of Hormuz
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)Ebola

Rwanda shuts its border with the Congo after ebola deaths hit its border city of Goma

(zerohedge)

ii)USA//USA/CHINA/USA/IRAN

Now it is Michael Every’s turn to comment on the uSA rate cut and what it means.  He also discusses the non existent Chinese USA trade deal
(courtesy Michael Every Rabobank)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

a)If the USA still wants to t=be the reserve currency of the world and also continue with its non saving policy, the government has no hope of having a current account positive balance.  LAWMAKERS are now ready to unveil a foreign investor tax and that should scare a lot of people away

(Washington Post/GATA)

b)Ronan Manly correctly states that the USA cut in interest rate is just the first of many as the Fed joins all of the nations in a race to the bottom

(Ronan Manly/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

This is exactly opposite to what Powell wants and needs.  He wanted the uSA 10 yr yield to rise to 2,10 or above.  He got the rate to now drop below 2.00%.  On top of this the entire yield curve collapses and that signals rate policy error again.  The 10 yr rate is the most important data we receive as it tells us the price of money.  Obviously it for tells us that something ominous is going to occur,

(zerohedge)

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON EARLY

STOCKS SOAR BUT YIELDS CRASH AFTER A BAD PMI/ISM MFG NUMBER

(ZEROHEDGE)

C) LATE AFTERNOON:

THEN BANG!!!  Did that escalate fast!!..the good news:  Powell has now more room to cut rates

stocks and yuan and bond yields crash as Trump unleashes new Chinese tariffs

(zerohedge)

ii)Market data/USA

I need everyone to pay attention to this latest input data. The USA manufacturing PMI plunges to a 10 year low.  This is a hard data entry point. You will recall that there are two reports which give us a picture of USA manufacturing: the PMI mfg data and the ISM data.  Generally the iSM data is much higher than the PMI. You will recall me stating that someone is right and someone is wrong when both of them give opposite results.  Not today..both give plummeting data..the uSA is in some serious trouble economically today.

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)My goodness, freight companies are falling like flies:  Terrill Transportation of Livermore California has just shut its doors on July 30

(zerohedge)

b)It is about time:  NY fire commissioners state that there is overwhelming evidence of a pre planted explosives which brought down 3 buildings with respect to 9/11.  They want an investigation

(zerohedge)

c)The following explains yesterday’s events perfectedly.  Schiff states that either Powell is lying or he is a complete idiot. I think he is both.

(zerohedge)

d)USA exports in soybeans to China plunge to 2004 lows.  This will hurt the uSA farmer big time

(zerohedge)

e)this will hurt a little:  Sears employees life insurance benefits will be whittled down from 5,000 to 15,000 dollars down to just 135.

Sears is in bankruptcy.
(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a0Sara Carter comments that the new Dept of Justice actions against FBI/CIA involvement in the Trump election scandal is heading overseas.

(Sara Carter)

b)The Dept of Justice could have easily prosecuted Comey on the Memo leak..however he has more serious problems on his plate..abuses on the FISA court application and he will surely feel the criminal sting on that one

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 786 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 564,084 DESPITE THE  LOSS OF $3.90 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED HUGE SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 11,115 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 100 CONTRACTS: DEC: 11,015   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  11,115 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 11,901 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,115 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 786 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE . 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  11,901 CONTRACTS OR 1,190,100 OZ OR 37.01 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 6551 CONTRACTS as we LOST 2149 contract.  We had 800 notices filed yesterday so we LOST 1349 contracts or 134,900 oz of gold that will NOT stand for delivery AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THESE GUYS HAVE MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND WILL TRY THEIR LACK OVER THERE.

The next non active month is September and here the OI FELL by 45 contracts DOWN to 3618.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI rose by 973 contracts up to 44,063.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAVE 2773 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  277,300 OZ. (8.625 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2833 CONTRACTS FROM 239,059 DOWN TO 236,226 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 14 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 553 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 509 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 697 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A FULL 188 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 940,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 2076 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 156,977 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER RECEIVED ITS FIRST 13 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 13.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 194 CONTRACTS UP TO 48,801

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 188 notice(s) filed for 940,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 545,690  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  563,298  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 1/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
2773 notice(s)
 277300 OZ
(8.625 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3778 contracts
(377800 oz)
11.75 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3573 notices
357300 OZ
11.11 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/

zero amount  arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

i) we had 2 adjustments today as they get ready for settlements;
a) Out of Delaware;  1502.668 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account..ready for settlement
b) Out of HSBC: 150,030.55 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account…ready for settlement

FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 373 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2773 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 952 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3573) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(6551 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (2773 x 100 oz per contract) equals 735,100 OZ OR 22.86 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

TOTAL No of notices served (3573 x 100 oz)  + (6551)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2773 x 100 oz which equals 735,100 oz standing OR 22.86 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We LOST 1349 contracts or an additional 134,900 oz will NOT stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus.

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 16.013 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 22.86  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// JUDGING BY THE HUGE SIZE OF THE COMEX NOTICES FILED TODAY, IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEBODY IS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE CROOKS AT THE COMEX

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  514,823.353 oz or  16.013 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,783,669.632 oz 242.104 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 33 MONTHS 115 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

 

 

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 1 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 nil oz

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
188
CONTRACT(S)
(940,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
365 contracts
 (1,825,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 885 contracts

4,425,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

i)into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into everybody else: nil  oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 0 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

total nil  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of Brinks: 54,728.120 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account of brinks and this landed into the customer account of Brinks

this is a deemed settlement. and this is what I want to see in gold adjustments i.e. dealer to customer account.

 

total dealer silver:  95.145 million

total dealer + customer silver:  310.374 million oz

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 188 contract(s) FOR 940,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 885 x 5,000 oz = 4,425,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (553) and the number of notices served upon today (188 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 885 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (553)- number of notices served upon today (188)x 5000 oz equals 6,250,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.

WE GAINED A MONSTROUS 188 CONTRACTS  AS THE DEALERS BYPASSED THOSE STANDING TRYING TO GRAB WHATEVER SILVER THEY CAN. WE THUS HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 188 CONTRACTS OR 940,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 188 notice(s) filed for 940,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  117,011 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 117,198 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 117,198 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 590 million  OZ 84.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.06.% ((AUGUST 1/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.80% to NAV (AUGUST 1/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.06%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.30 TRADING 13.80/DISCOUNT 3.51

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.50: A HUGE INVENTORY WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LEAVES THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 818.14 TONNES

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ/

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: ANOTHER 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD REMOVED AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD AT THE COMEX/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.61 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

 

 

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AUGUST 1/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 827.82 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 633 TRADING DAYS: 106.87 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 533 TRADING DAYS: A NET 58.76 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 26.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:  A HUGE 1.03 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER LEAVES THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 357.183 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.575 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

 

OZ//

AUGUST 1/2019:

 

Inventory 356.715 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.21/ and libor 6 month duration 2.17

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .04

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.19%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.22

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = –.03

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold and Silver Are “Safe Haven Money” and Have Never Failed Throughout History – Silver Guru

– “I feel called to this … I feel it is my duty to educate as many people as possible”

Watch interview here

– The Fed is engaged in “extend and pretend” but we are in the “end game”

– U.S. bonds are no longer safe due to negative yields and the risk of massive currency depreciation

– The gold silver ratio is headed “much much lower” – likely back to 30:1

– Only some $16 billion worth of above ground investment grade silver

– A small amount of diversification by retail, HNW, UHNW and institutional investors will propel undervalued silver much higher

– Is silver bullion being acquired by JP Morgan and interests in China, India and elsewhere?

– Did Warren Buffet’s silver acquisition in 1998 ultimately become the initial holdings in the silver ETF?

– Own precious metals for insurance and gains but do not over allocate

– Increase allocations now that prices remain low and decrease allocations when prices increase significantly

– Always keeping a core bullion coin and bar holding as life insurance

– Buy from a reputable gold and silver dealer and it makes sense for investors to own some precious metals in safe vaults internationally

– Is your gold and silver bullion S.A.F.E.? See video below

Listen to interview here

NEWS & COMMENTARY

Gold futures finish with a loss after Fed cuts interest rate as expected

Gold falls as Fed rate outlook disappoints

Fed cuts rates, signals it may not need to do more

Wall Street unimpressed by Fed’s expected rate cut

Fed cuts interest rates by quarter-point and ends quantitative tightening early 

US Fed: Infinite QE Forever at Zero Bound

The Economy Is Starting To Implode

Gold Prices via LBMA (AM/ PM Fix – USD, GBP & EUR)

31-Jul-19 1430.55 1427.55, 1175.48 1167.45 & 1283.20 1281.37
30-Jul-19 1428.45 1425.90, 1173.47 1171.95 & 1281.75 1279.60
29-Jul-19 1418.95 1419.05, 1150.91 1157.94 & 1275.78 1275.30
26-Jul-19 1418.25 1420.40, 1140.27 1144.70 & 1273.02 1275.95
25-Jul-19 1426.35 1416.10, 1143.08 1132.88 & 1281.86 1265.85
24-Jul-19 1425.55 1426.95, 1142.29 1142.70 & 1279.86 1279.69
23-Jul-19 1417.55 1425.55, 1140.42 1145.29 & 1268.14 1277.01
22-Jul-19 1424.45 1427.75, 1142.69 1143.63 & 1270.04 1272.13
19-Jul-19 1437.05 1439.70, 1148.06 1148.88 & 1278.11 1281.48

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

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Buy, Transfer & Store Gold and Silver in Zurich, Switzerland – Six Months Free Storage

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

If the USA still wants to t=be the reserve currency of the world and also continue with its non saving policy, the government has no hope of having a current account positive balance.  LAWMAKERS are now ready to unveil a foreign investor tax and that should scare a lot of people away

(Washington Post/GATA)

Trump not alone in seeking lower dollar, as lawmakers unveil foreign investor tax

 Section: 

Trump not alone in seeking lower dollar, as lawmakers unveil foreign investor tax

By David J. Lynch
Washington Post
Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell has spent several months fending off President Trump’s demands to lower the value of the dollar to help American manufacturers sell their goods abroad. Under a bipartisan Senate bill due Wednesday, the central bank chief no longer would have any choice.

Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) are introducing legislation that would require the Fed to balance the nation’s current account, the broadest measure of the trade balance, within five years. Under the bill, the task would become a third official mandate for the Fed, along with maintaining stable prices and promoting full employment.

… 

The legislation would empower the Fed to impose a “market access charge” on all foreign purchases of U.S. stocks, bonds, property, and other assets. Supporters say the modest fee would discourage speculative short-term investments, reducing demand for dollars and causing the greenback to settle at a lower value, while not discouraging purchases of long-term assets such as factories.

Foreign investors purchased more than $21 trillion worth of U.S. stocks and bonds last year, according to Fed data.

Those backing the cross-border tax say the dollar’s value has been persistently elevated for decades, making American goods more expensive on world markets and encouraging U.S. consumers to buy imports. The resulting trade deficits have erased millions of U.S. factory jobs, they say. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-not-alone-in-seeki…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

Ronan Manly correctly states that the USA cut in interest rate is just the first of many as the Fed joins all of the nations in a race to the bottom

(Ronan Manly)

Ronan Manly: Gold is the ultimate asset as Fed joins race to the bottom in interest rates

 Section: 

5:56p ET Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly writes that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut today will hasten the race among central banks to devalue their currencies with more interest rate reductions and asset purchases.

Manly writes: “This is where gold enters the picture — physical gold, which has no counterparty risk; physical gold, which has an intrinsic value. Whatever reason you choose to hold gold, the actions of the central banks at this juncture are becoming increasingly perilous. Yet for central banks, gold is financial insurance against the probability that these same central banks know the current system is not going to last. That’s why they themselves hold gold in such vast quantities and are lining up to buy more, across China, Russia, India, and Europe.”

Manly’s commentary is headlined “Gold Is the Ultimate Asset as Fed Joins Race to the Bottom in Global Rates” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/gold-the-ultimate-asset-as…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9017/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9122   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 23.74 POINTS OR 0.81%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 212.05 POINTS OR 0.76%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 19.46 POINTS OR 0.07%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.86/Euro FALLS TO 1.1219

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.13/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.95/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.80 and Brent: 64.36

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.43%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.60% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.32%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.03: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.04

3k Gold at $1404.10 silver at: 15.96   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 20/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.86

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.55 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9954 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0982 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.43%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.04% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.54%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.5760..

US Futures Rebound From Post-Powell Tantrum As Dollar Juggernaut Continues

World stocks and US index futures rebounded, even as the dollar charged to its highest in more than two years on Thursday after the Federal Reserve spoiled hopes of a run of U.S. interest rate cuts when Fed Chair Powell shocked when he said that the rate cut is a “mid-cycle adjustment” indicating it’s not the start of an extended series of cuts.

After the rate cut on Wednesday, Powell said in a press conference that the Fed’s quarter-point reduction amounted to a “mid-term policy adjustment.” Two Fed officials dissented to the decision, favoring no change. President Donald Trump said in a tweet “Powell let us down” with the size of the move.

While there was already a blizzard of global data and events going on, it was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Wednesday that set the markets running – literally – with the hour that contained Powell’s press conference seeing trading volumes explode to the highest level of the year; this is when Powell said the first U.S. rate cut in over a decade was “not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts” and the market tumbled.

 

Analyst hot takes on the Fed’s decision came hot and heavy: “That’s what a hawkish cut looks like,’’ Morgan Stanley analysts including Ellen Zentner wrote in a note to clients. “The minimal size of the cut, the dissents, and Powell’s press conference disappointed markets, and undercut our expectation.”

“We believe the Fed is trying to thread the needle, balancing market jitters about slowing global growth with robust consumer spending and a strong job market in the U.S.,” said Nick Maroutsos, co-head of global bonds at Janus Henderson. In other words, by cutting just 25 bps, the Fed is trying to bolster market confidence while also keeping some dry powder in reserve in case of an economic shock.”

But it was the dollar’s reaction said it all: the DXY index surged to the highest in more than two years, euro/dollar dropped below $1.11 for the first time since May 2017, and Brexit-hobbled sterling hit 30-month lows just above $1.21. The Bloomberg dollar index jumped to the highest since 2018 as all bank clients who had been following short dollar trade recos were carted out feet first.

Ten-year Treasuries had rallied on Wednesday after the cut and when policy makers brought forward their plan to abandon the run-down in the bond portfolio.

“Markets interpreted the Fed’s communication as slightly hawkish and therefore further rate cuts in the immediate future were somewhat priced out,” said David Milleker, senior economic advisor at Union Investment. “And the dollar strengthened. All in all, the Fed did not achieve what it presumably wanted.” However, perhaps sensing that they had overreacted, world stocks rebounded modestly overnight as futures for all three main U.S. stock gauges nudged higher.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.4% following a weak start, with financial services shares leading the rebound and banks also rising after upbeat results from the likes of Societe Generale and Barclays. Other top-performing European sectors included retail and telecom, while British American Tobacco, the top contributor in terms of index points, also extended its gain on better-than-expected earnings.

Most Asian equity gauges dropped earlier, though Japan’s benchmark recouped early losses as the yen slid. European bullishness was reinforced by disappointing European data, which saw the French manufacturing PMI slide back into contraction, while German Mfg PMI tumbled to a fresh multi-year low.

Europe reversed earlier losses in Asia where the MSCI index of Asian shares ex-Japan fell 0.8%, extending losses for a fifth day to the lowest since mid-June and posting its biggest one-day percentage drop in a month. The S&P BSE Sensex Index fell the most in the region, headed for its lowest level in five months on Thursday after completing its worst July in 17 years.  Australian shares declined 0.4%. Losses by Chinese shares ended down 0.8%. Taiwan shares extended their losing streak to a fifth day as China imposed a ban on travel to the island. Japan stocks rebounded from early losses, helped by strong earnings at the country’s largest financial firms and a weakening in the yen. The nation’s banks and brokerages surged after Nomura and Mitsubishi UFJ reported large increases in quarterly profit.

Downbeat data and factory surveys on Thursday had also pointed to further weakness for Asia’s trade-reliant economies.  South Korea’s exports fell for an eighth straight month in July amid weak global demand and a dispute with Japan. New export orders shrank the most in about six years. South Korea, the world’s sixth-largest exporter, is the first major industrial economy to release trade data each month, providing an early assessment on the health of global demand. Pressure on Chinese factories eased slightly, but manufacturing activity continued to shrink according to the Caixin PMI which printed in contraction if modestly better than expected.

Specifically, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 49.9 in July,above market expectations and also higher than June’s reading. The production sub-index increased by 1.1pp to 50.1, and the new orders sub-index went up to 50.2 from 48.8. Inventory indicators suggest a destocking trend — the raw material inventories sub-index was 0.4pp lower at 49.8, and the finished goods inventory index fell 0.7pp to 48.5. Employment growth deteriorated further — the employment sub-index was 0.3pp lower at 48.7, the lowest reading since February 2019.

“The broader global trade dynamic remains a challenge,” Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas said. “Trade should continue to drag on corporate confidence, capex and global growth in the near term.”

U.S. Treasuries were sold off as investors scaled back their pre-Fed expectations for at least 100 basis points of cuts in the near term. Yields on 10-year notes climbed as high as 2.058% in Europe from a U.S. close of 2.007%, before recovering some of the losses. Core euro zone bond yields were rising, too, although -0.428% German Bund levels were still extraordinary.

Elsewhere in FX, as noted earlier the pound weakened, dropping below 1.21 and resuming its recent losing streak and staying lower as the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged. Gilts pared a small gain. “Sterling remains vulnerable to a further escalation in Brexit tensions and we anticipate the market will likely discount higher risks of a ‘no deal’ outcome in the weeks ahead,” said Roger Hallam, currency chief investment officer at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar slipped below key chart support of $0.6832 to as low as $0.6828, a level not seen since an early January “flash crash”. The kiwi hit a six-week trough of $0.6535 on expectations the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut rates next week.

The Chinese yuan weakened to its lowest level in six weeks, slipping below 6.9 against a strengthening greenback. The onshore yuan fell to as low as 6.9150 per dollar on Thursday, the lowest since June 18, before paring the decline. “The Fed was less dovish than expected, so the dollar rebounded strongly across the board and against the yuan,” said Stephen Chiu, FX and rates strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, adding that the yuan was expected to remain steady against the greenback in the near term while advancing against a basket of trading partners’ currencies. The People’s Bank of China set its daily yuan fix 0.14% weaker than Wednesday, but at a level stronger than 6.9 per dollar, which was considered its line in the sand for the currency. “I think the yuan will hover around the current level for a while, 6.85 to 6.95 for now,” said Tommy Xie, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. The PBOC is not likely to follow the Fed with a cut of its own, he added.

In commodities, U.S. crude futures fell 76 cents to $57.82 per barrel after comments on the rate outlook. Brent was down 71 cents at $64.34. Spot gold also fell, to $1,405.26.

With the Fed out of the way, and with traders now departing for their summer vacations, investors will continue to keep an eye on the ongoing earnings season amid even more abysmal liquidity, as well as Friday’s U.S. jobs data and trade developments. American and Chinese negotiators plan to meet again in early September, after the latest round of talks ended with few signs of concrete progress.

Expected data include jobless claims and PMI readings. Verizon, Veon and U.S. Steel are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up little changed at 2,982.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.02% to 385.85
  • MXAP down 0.6% to 157.47
  • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 514.77
  • Nikkei up 0.09% to 21,540.99
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,567.35
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 27,565.70
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 2,908.77
  • Sensex down 1.5% to 36,904.26
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 6,788.93
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,017.34
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.1 bps to -0.419%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1045
  • Brent Futures down 1.2% to $64.26/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 11.8 bps to 1.19%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.7 bps to 0.321%
  • Brent Futures down 1.1% to $64.45/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,405.70
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 98.82

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Fed’s Powell hearkened back to the central bank’s 1990’s policy successes by suggesting he can sustain the record long U.S. economic expansion with just a modest reduction in interest rates. He said the cut this week shouldn’t be seen as a signal for extended easing
  • Manufacturing in the euro area shrank for a sixth month at the start of the third quarter, dragged down by Germany’s worst slump in seven years. The downbeat figures come in the wake of reports showing slower economic growth in France, Spain and the euro area, with Italy stagnating
  • China’s central bank refrained from immediately following the U.S. Federal Reserve in cutting borrowing costs, signaling its preference to continue with the current targeted easing approach for now.
  • President Donald Trump said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell “let us down” by delivering an interest-rate cut that’s not aggressive enough to fight the trade and currency battles his administration is waging
  • U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators plan to meet again in early September, as the latest round of negotiations ended with few signs of concrete progress. Chinese State media hails ‘transition’ role of Shanghai talks
  • The Trump administration on Wednesday imposed sanctions against Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in a provocative move that diminishes the prospects for a diplomatic solution to rising tensions that have brought the U.S. and Tehran to the brink of war
  • Joe Biden faced an onslaught from across the Democratic debate stage as his opponents sought to cut down the party’s front-runner on health care, immigration, women’s issues and criminal justice
  • Barclays Plc Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley said the bank cut 3,000 jobs in the second quarter as the firm sought to keep a tight grip on expenses and counter criticism over its ability to reach profitability targets
  • London Stock Exchange Group Plc agreed to snap up Refinitiv in a $27 billion blockbuster deal, betting on a future dominated by data that will extend its reach beyond Europe

Asian stocks traded lacklustre as the region reacted to the FOMC meeting. ASX 200 (-0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (U/C) were lower with notable weakness seen in gold miners after the precious metal slumped post-FOMC, although downside in Australia’s broader market was limited by resilience in its largest weighted financials sector, while the Japanese benchmark briefly turned positive as it found solace from a weaker currency and amid a heavy slate of earnings. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) conformed to the downbeat picture after the PBoC skipped liquidity operations again and participants digested more PMI data in which Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped estimates but remained below the 50 benchmark level, while there was also increasing concerns regarding the Chinese military intervening in Hong Kong. Conversely, participants had their first opportunity to react to the more constructive tone struck between US and China in trade talks. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower and tracked the weakness seen in USTs following the less dovish than expected Fed, with further pressure seen after the 10yr auction results which attracted weaker demand.

Top Asian News

  • Tax Haven Crackdown Catches Asia Hedge Funds in Its Crosshairs
  • China Encourages Tencent to Boost Cooperation with SOEs
  • Iron Ore Falls as Samarco Close to Regaining License
  • Betting Like SoftBank Drives Toyota’s Value Up by $19 Billion

European stocks have nursed the losses seen at the open [Eurostoxx 50 +0.4%] and are somewhat consolidating following the downside seen post-FOMC. Major bourses are mixed with the FTSE 100 (Unch) faring slightly worse as its oil giant Shell (-4.6%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 as the Co’s profits plunged on lower oil prices. This, coupled with an uninspiring energy complex sees the EU energy sector significantly underperforming, whilst other sectors (ex-materials) are broadly in positive territory. Notable movers today are largely on the back of earnings, with Altice (+23.7%), Capita (+21.0%), SocGen (+4.5%) and Standard Chartered (+4.5%) all bolstered by optimistic numbers. On the flip side, Barclays (-3.2%) is hit on a profit miss, while Siemens (-4.3%) narrowed its EBITA forecast and now sees it at the lower end of the previously guided range. Miners also took a hit from the FOMC-triggered downside in the metals complex. Finally, a special dividend announcement from Rio Tinto (-2.4%) did little to support their share price this morning.

Top European News

  • European Manufacturing Slump Keeps Economy Under Pressure
  • U.K. Allocates Extra $2.6 Billion to Prepare for No-Deal Brexit
  • Polish Central Bank Boss Signals No Response to Inflation Shock
  • Russia to Grant Some Visas to U.S.-Embassy Backed Moscow School

In FX, the Dollar is broadly firmer in wake of the FOMC and relatively hawkish guidance to accompany the 25 bp ease. The decision to cut rates was not unanimous and Fed Chair Powell stressed that the move was different to previous policy loosening heralding the start of a lengthy cycle by framing the reduction as a mid-cycle adjustment, albeit adding that it is not necessarily a case of ‘one and done’. Nevertheless, the markets were hoping for more and the index rallied to a new 2019 peak at 98.941 before losing momentum ahead of Friday’s NFP that may be pivotal for the rest of the year in terms of policy action.

  • AUD/NZD/NOK/SEK – Relative outperformers or at least recovering some lost ground, as the Aussie found support near early Feb 2016 lows around 0.6827 vs its US counterpart and has subsequently bounced to 0.6850+, while the Kiwi rebounded from 0.6535 to reclaim 0.6560+ status. Elsewhere, the Scandi Crowns are both benefiting from technical retracements against the Euro and seemingly independent of contrasting manufacturing PMIs given a bad Norwegian miss and sub-50 print vs firmer than forecast Swedish headline that was only partly offset by less upbeat components. Indeed, Eur/Nok is back down below 9.8000 and Eur/Sek under 10.7000.
  • GBP/EUR/JPY/CAD/CHF – The Pound has also largely shrugged off a better than expected UK manufacturing PMI amidst ongoing and increasing no deal Brexit risk as output hit circa 7 year lows and attention shifts to BoE super Thursday and the prospect of a more dovish/downbeat tone to the MPC minutes, QIR and Governor Carney presser. Indeed, Cable has now lost grip of the 1.2100 handle and Eur/Gbp is eyeing 0.9130 ahead of high noon and the 12.30BST news conference – full preview available via the Research Suite and Headline Feed. Mixed Eurozone manufacturing surveys have not really impacted the single currency either as Eur/Usd hovers towards the base of a 1.1080-33 range, while the Yen has regrouped from 109.30 lows to probe resistance at 109.00 and hefty option expiry interest from the big figure to 109.10 in 2 bn. Elsewhere, the Loonie has handed back all and more of its post-Canadian GDP data gains and is looking at offers said to be stacked between 1.3230-40, with the Franc pivoting 0.9950 and 1.1000 against the Euro.
  • EM – Amidst pronounced depreciation vs the Greenback, Turkey’s Lira has bucked the trend on further positive follow through from the latest CBRT inflation report and outlook, with Usd/Try remaining south of 5.6000 and hardly reacting to a more contractionary manufacturing PMI. However, the Real may underperform after a bigger than anticipated 50 bp BCB rate cut from a 3.8130 close post-FOMC.

In commodities, the energy complex remains subdued in the after-math of the disappointing FOMC forward guidance issued yesterday. WTI and Brent futures have since traded sideways below 58.00/bbl and 64.50/bbl respectively with little by way of fresh catalysts. Looking at technical levels to the upside, WTI sees the psychological 58/bbl mark ahead of its 200 DMA at 58.09/bbl, meanwhile its Brent counterpart sees clean air (ex-psych levels) between 63.50-65.00/bbl. In terms of geopolitics, US announced sanctions on Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif during the back-end of the US session, albeit the news did little to sway oil prices. Elsewhere, the metal market remains under pressure from the FOMC fallout in which gold plummeted over 20/oz since the release. The yellow metal remains under pressure (albeit above the 1400/oz level) as the Dollar index hovers near YTD highs. Meanwhile, copper remains lacklustre and firmly below the 2.7/lb as the red metal holds onto the Powell-induced losses.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 214,000, prior 206,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.67m, prior 1.68m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 63.7
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 50, prior 50
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 52, prior 51.7
  • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.8%
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 16.9m, prior 17.3m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

So welcome to August with July ending with a bit of a bang for markets. Indeed yesterday’s Fed meeting was the obvious main event, and it certainly did not disappoint even if Mr Powell did for many. As we discussed yesterday the risk/reward set up isn’t great ahead of this easing cycle and last night showed us how difficult it’s going to be for central banks to keep up with market expectations.

The Fed did cut interest rates by 25bps as broadly expected, albeit with two dissents from regional Fed presidents. Equities fell, the yield curve flattened worryingly and the dollar strengthened. Initially the moves seemed to just be a mechanical reaction to the fact that the interest rate cut was 25bps instead of 50bps, given the market had priced in around a 16% chance for a larger move. However, the adverse moves accelerated during Chair Powell’s press conference after he characterised the move as “a mid-cycle adjustment to policy” and said it was not “the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle.”

The market certainly interpreted that as a signal of a hawkish cut, possibly with Powell signaling reduced odds for further cuts. The price moves across asset classes certainly seemed to be consistent with higher odds of a policy mistake. At one point during the presser, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were down as much as -1.83% and -1.98%, respectively, while two-year yields rose as much as +11.5bps (+15bps from just before the announcement), taking the 2y10y yield curve -10.8bps flatter to 10.2bps at one point.

The curve ultimately ended -7.1bps flatter at 13.9bps (14.9bps this morning), the lowest level since May and towards to bottom of the YTD range. Ten-year yields rallied to end -4.7bps lower (but are up +2.1bps this morning), while two-year yields moderated to close +2.2bps higher (are up a further +1.4bps this morning). This flattening was in contrast to the +9.1bps of steepening that occurred after the June Fed meeting, when the FOMC signaled the impending rate cut with the curve hitting a seven month high of around +29bps. As a reminder I place a high degree of weight on the 2s10s curve when trying to work out where in the US cycle we are. With us almost getting back into single digits at one point last night we’re no more than a few bad days away from inverting. This for me is the biggest worry from last night.

In the end, the S&P 500 declined -1.10%, which was the worst day for the index since 31 May. The NASDAQ and DOW ultimately closed -1.19% and -1.23%, respectively, as well. The dollar rallied +0.58% to its strongest level in over two years. President Trump tweeted after markets closed that “Powell let us down” because “what the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve was that this was the beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate-cutting cycle.” There was no immediate reaction to the tweet, but is certainly raises the political heat on the Fed.

Even before that tweet, Powell seemed to be feeling the heat and used his final comments to specifically address and reframe his earlier remarks which had driven the selloff. He clarified that “I didn’t say it’s just one (cut) or anything like that (…) what I said was it’s not a long cutting cycle, in other words, referring to what we do when there’s a recession or a very severe downturn. That’s really what I was ruling out.” So he tried to emphasize that the FOMC does not expect a recession or a downturn, but that they are ready to cut rates more than once as needed. He also referred one reporter to look at history for prior examples of “mid-cycle adjustments,” tacitly signaling that he views the current environment as similar to the 1995 and 1998 episodes, when the Fed cut rates 75bps each time. So a bit of a mixed message with the market a bit confused. However the reality is that it had probably gone over its skis a bit in expectations.

To recap the Fed’s actual policy statement, which came with two dissents from Kansas City’s George and Boston’s Rosengren, the only major additions were a reference to “global developments” and a new comment saying that the Committee will “contemplate the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate.” The statement still said that they “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” The Fed also opted to end its balance sheet runoff effective today, rather than the end of September as originally planned, though this move will have only a marginal impact on markets.

Before the Fed decision, a pretty bad MNI Chicago PMI for July did help to justify the Fed’s decision to cut. The index fell to 44.4 (vs. 51.0 expected), the lowest reading since December 2015. Before that, every single one of the 68 instances of a Chicago PMI at or below the 44.4 level over the last 50 years has been associated with a recession. The index was this low in mid-1967 without prompting a recession, however. On an ISM-adjusted basis, the index fell -4.5pts to 47.5, and the details were broadly weak as well. The production and employment components were both the weakest since 2009 at 41.4 and 42.9, respectively. The print presents downside risks to today’s ISM manufacturing report, as well as tomorrow’s jobs report.

With the ongoing uncertainty over global trade being a major factor behind yesterday’s rate cut, it’s worth noting that the latest round of trade talks between the US and China finished yesterday. A White House statement following the talks described the meetings as “constructive”, and said that the discussions included “forced technology transfer, intellectual property rights, services, non-tariff barriers, and agriculture.” Regarding future talks, it said they “expect negotiations on an enforceable trade deal to continue in Washington, D.C., in early September,” though staff-level discussions will continue in August. So this won’t get resolved soon but at this stage it’s a positive that they’ve agreed to meet again. In the meantime we are obviously susceptible to a Trump tweet on the matter.

Again on the theme of the lower interest rate world, it was interesting that the FT reported yesterday that UBS have decided to pass on negative interest rates to its wealthy clients as banks start to appreciate that low or negative rates are not going to be the temporary phenomenon they had previously thought. In itself, it might not be a big deal but it may mark the start of a period where banks try to pass on more of the cost of central bank’s policies. What depositors do on this will be interesting. To exaggerate, if I have 100 units with a bank and I’m going to see this erode in value now I can either hoard cash (after recent building works I won’t need a big mattress), buy assets (risky), spend more as why bother to save (a bit extreme), or accept a steady reduction in my wealth, be grumpy and maybe save more to compensate. I haven’t got my head around which theme will dominate if this practise become more widespread.

Overnight in Asia markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the exception of Japan which is making modest gains (after paring early losses) on a weaker Japanese yen (-0.39% this morning). Other than that, the Hang Seng (-0.68%), Shanghai Comp (-0.78%) and Kospi (-0.18%) are all down. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up a marginal +0.04%. The US dollar has continued to strengthen with the index being up +0.33% this morning after advancing +0.48% yesterday. In terms of overnight data releases, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI surprised on the upside at 49.9 (vs. 49.5 expected). The accompanying statement suggested that new export orders stayed in contractionary territory but saw a rise while components of output and new orders returned to expansion. A slightly better message than yesterday’s official PMIs. Elsewhere Japan’s final July manufacturing PMI came in two-tenths lower than the initial read at 49.4 (vs. 49.3 last month).

In other overnight news, Bloomberg has reported that the Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol considers “Japan’s recent export restrictions against South Korea are a big risk,” while adding that Japan may decide as early as this week to take South Korea off the “white list” of nations it deems to be safe buyers of sensitive materials. If Japan goes ahead with the move then it is likely to affect South Korea’s automobile, steel, aviation and electronics industries. The foreign ministers of both nations are meeting today in Bangkok after the US urged them to calm rising trade tensions that are threatening global supply lines. Meanwhile, here in the UK, the government has doubled spending to £4.2bn on no-deal Brexit preparations this financial year while bringing the total cash allocated to £6.3bn. For this, the Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid has set aside £2.1 bn of new cash including an immediate £1.1bn pounds to improve key border and customs infrastructure and ensure access to critical medical supplies. The remainder will be made available to government departments if needed.

Ahead of the Fed, the main story in European markets yesterday were the new record lows for sovereign bond yields. 10-year bunds fell -4.0bps to an all-time closing low of -0.440%, and now comfortably below the ECB’s deposit rate of -40bps. It was the same direction for French 10-year debt, down -4.3bps to close at -0.184%. And perhaps most eye watering of all, Swiss 10-year yields fell -3.0bps to close at -0.805%. Even 30-year Swiss debt now trades at a yield of -0.186bps and the longest bond, maturing in 2064, now yields -0.081%. Equities were mixed, with the STOXX 600 up +0.17%, with the DAX (+0.34%), CAC 40 (+0.14%) and the FTSE MIB (+0.56%) all making gains before the FOMC. Once again the FTSE 100 was the outlier, falling -0.78%, as it traded inversely to a rallying sterling.

The moves in Europe came as GDP figures confirmed the ongoing slowdown in the Eurozone economy, with Q2 growth of +0.2% (as expected), down from +0.4% in Q1. The decline in Q2 growth brings the yoy growth rate to +1.1%, the lowest since Q4 2013. Separately, inflation readings showed Eurozone CPI fell to +1.1% in July, the lowest since February 2018, while core inflation fell to +0.9% (vs. +1.0% expected). In terms of the country details we got yesterday, growth in Spain was at +0.5% (vs. +0.6% expected), which was the slowest quarterly growth there since Q2 2014. Italy saw growth come in above expectations however, with a flat 0.0% reading in Q2 (vs. -0.1% contraction expected), and unemployment in the country fell to 9.7%, the lowest since January 2012. Nevertheless, Italian inflation data showed HICP at +0.4% in July (vs. +0.5% expected), the lowest since November 2016. In spite of the lower than expected inflation readings, Euro five-year forward five-year inflation swaps ended the session up +2.5bps.

Continuing the big week for central banks, having already heard from the BoJ and the Fed, the Bank of England’s MPC will be making their latest policy decision today, and we’ll also have the release of the Bank’s quarterly inflation report and a press conference from Governor Carney. In their preview last Friday (link here ) our UK economists wrote that although they expect the MPC will vote to keep Bank Rate on hold, they think that they will drop their tightening bias, “with the MPC becoming more sensitive to a deteriorating economic outlook vis-à-vis the ongoing trade wars and an increasing risk of a no deal Brexit.” Since the MPC’s last meeting of course, sterling has weakened noticeably, although yesterday it was the best-performing G10 currency versus the dollar, trading flat despite broad strength for the greenback.

Wrapping up, in terms of other data yesterday in the US, the ADP Employment Change said that 156k jobs had been added in July (vs. 150k expected), while June’s reading was revised up by +10k. Although better than expected, this brought the 3-month moving average down to its lowest level since 2010. Elsewhere, the employment cost index for Q2 was +0.6% (vs. 0.7% expected).

Looking to the day ahead, the Bank of England will be announcing its latest monetary policy decision, with Governor Carney giving a press conference afterwards. In terms of data, the manufacturing PMIs will be the highlights, with Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone and the UK all reporting this morning, before the US in the afternoon. From the US, there’ll also be the July ISM manufacturing data as well as June construction spending. Earnings releases today include Royal Dutch Shell, Barclays, Verizon Communications, General Motors, Rio Tinto and Siemens, and in the UK, there’s a parliamentary by-election taking place which will have implications for the new PM with his majority at risk of dropping to two.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.74 POINTS OR 0.81%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 212.05 POINTS OR 0.76%   /The Nikkei closed UP 19.46 POINTS OR 0.07%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .36%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9017 /Oil UP TO 57.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9017 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9122 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China/USA

This is not good as  China is accusing the USA of fomenting the Hong Kong protests

(zerohedge)

China Accuses US Of Orchestrating Hong Kong Protests

Around the same time that the White House hinted that a military conflict may be imminent in Hong Kong after it said it was monitoring what a senior administration official called a “congregation of Chinese forces” on Hong Kong’s border, China’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday claimed the recent protests in Hong Kong are “the work of the U.S.,” adding that the United States owes the world an explanation.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo “thinks that the recent violence in Hong Kong is reasonable because everyone knows that this is the work of the U.S.,” spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at a regular press briefing, referring to when Pompeo said China should “do the right thing” in dealing with protests in Hong Kong, in an interview with Bloomberg Television last week.

 

Hua Chunying

According to Kyodo, as evidence Hua provided examples of recent U.S. “interference” in which, she claims U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton and Pompeo met with opposition figures multiple times throughout the weeks-long protests over a controversial extradition bill. And while some may be quick to dismiss her allegations, it was similar “interference” by the US state department that was observed in Ukraine just days before the fateful Maidan protests that brought down the president and thanks to Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland, set the world on its current path of cold war-era confrontation between the US and Russia, which in turn has virtually assured another global military conflict in the future.

 

“There have been many American faces in the violent parade in Hong Kong, and even some American flags,” Hua said.

In urging the United States to “let go” of the Hong Kong issue, Hua warned, “Those who play with fire only get themselves burned.”

China’s remarks came just hours before the ministerial-level trade talks between the two nations in Shanghai collapsed without even a glimmer of progress after just a few hours of discussions, with the future of trade negotiations in limbo.

Which brings up the remarkable observation from David Rosenberg, who noted that Trump’s hidden “genius” consists in the interplay of the US-China and White House-Fed conflicts, as follows:

“Maybe Trump is a genius, after all. What if he finally gets the steep Fed rate cuts he has been demanding?

After that, he ends the trade wars, tariffs go to zero, and the stock market surges to new highs — just in time for the 2020 election!”

This, as one reader summarized today, can not be amended as follows:

  1. Trump aborted China trade talks as soon as they begin…
  2. … and stoked unrest in HK to piss Chinese off…
  3. … in order to force the Fed to cut rates…
  4. … and then get a trade deal with China this fall or winter to send stocks soaring into the 2020 elections …
  5. Profit get re-elected.
END
It sure looks like China will invade Hong Kong.  Check to mr Trump!
(zerohedge)

“All Consequences At Your Own Risk”: In Stunning Warning, Chinese Army Says It Will Protect Chinese Sovereignty

Just on the heels of new reports of a significant build-up of Chinese security forces on Hong Kong’s border, with the White House monitoring what an official described as “a congregation of Chinese forces” outside the city, the chief of the Chinese military garrison in Hong Kong warned Thursday that the army stands ready to “protect” Chinese sovereignty.

 

Screenshot of a new, threatening PLA video released this week.

A military crackdown could be imminent, as we warned earlier, against the massive anti-Beijing protests which have gripped Hong Kong over the past month, and which last week escalated to vandal attacks on the central government’s liaison office in Hong Kong, as The New York Times reported.

Further upping the ante, new threatening footage showing an emergency response “drill” involving Chinese troops taking positions around the city was unveiled by the military on Wednesday at an event honoring the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) Hong Kong garrison. The footage was described as “a promotional video showing various activities and stating that troops stationed in the city were able to protect its long-term stability.”

The PLA’s Hong Kong garrison commander Chen Daoxiang firmly asserted that continuing unrest on the streets in Hong Kong would “not be tolerated” while playing the promo video which included a scene of a soldier shouting in Cantonese during an anti-riot exercise: “All consequences are at your own risk.”

The new PLA “riot control” video, which the Washington Post described as showing soldiers practicing shooting protesters:

The caption on the video says: “The PLA’s Hong Kong Garrison is an important embodiment of China’s national sovereignty, a vital force of safeguarding the ‘One Country, Two Systems,’ and a cornerstone in maintaining Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability. What we have been doing is preparing for war, training hard on enemy-killing skills, and keep our weapons ready and always ready to attack!” — The Washington Post

Daoxiang said, according to the South China Morning Post: “Recently, there have been a series of extremely violent incidents happening in Hong Kong,” and added, “This has damaged the prosperity and stability of the city, and challenged the rule of law and social order.”

“The incidents have seriously threatened the life and safety of Hong Kong citizens, and violated the bottom line of ‘one country, two systems’,” he said, and concluded, “This should not be tolerated and we express our strong condemnation.”

SCMP’s commentary noted it was the first time the key Hong Kong PLA commander commented on the growing Hong Kong protests, which were triggered in reaction to the city’s controversial extradition bill.

China News 中国新闻网

@Echinanews

PLA garrison shows its commitment to safeguarding the country’s sovereignty and security, as well as Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability through a video released on Wednesday.

Last week Chinese military leaders hinted that People’s Liberation Army troops could be used to quell the protests following widespread reports of vandal attacks on the central government’s liaison office in Hong Kong, according to The New York Times. Ministry of National Defense, Senior Col. Wu Qian, said at the time, “That absolutely cannot be tolerated.”

And yesterday an unnamed White House official described to Bloomberg evidence of a Chinese security force build up on Hong Kong’s border, though few details were given: “The nature of the Chinese buildup wasn’t clear; the official said that units of the Chinese military or armed police had gathered at the border with Hong Kong. The official briefed reporters on condition he not be identified,” the source said, according to the report.

end
Xi planning to unify the Mainland with Taiwan?
(zerohedge)

“Tourism Shouldn’t Be Politicized”: Taiwan’s President Slams Beijing’s New Travel Ban

Beijing ratcheted up tensions with Taipei this week by scrapping a program that allowed tourists from 47 mainland cities to visit Taiwan, a sign that President Xi’s plans to “re-unify” Taiwan with the mainland is continuing amid a wave of pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.

China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism said in a statement on Wednesday that a ban on solo travelers visiting Taiwan would take effect on Aug. 1, effectively banning all individual leisure travel from mainland China to Taiwan, though business travelers and tour groups from the mainland will still be able to visit the island.

The decision has drawn accusations of political interference from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.

President Tsai

According to CNN, the individual visit program was piloted in June 2011 in three cities: Beijing, Shanghai and Xiamen. Soon after, it was expanded to include residents of 44 additional cities. It was intended to breed closer ties between the mainland and its ‘rogue province’. But last month, Beijing released a new defense policy paper – the first since the beginning of President Xi’s second term – where it accused Western powers of interfering with Beijing’s relationship with Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Since the beginning of the year, President Xi has amped up his rhetoric about Taiwan, claiming that one of his top priorities is to oversee the reunification that Beijing has always insisted would one day occur. These remarks have incensed President Tsai, who has vowed that the Taiwanese people wouldn’t tolerate reunification, while buying billions of dollars of tanks and other military equipment from the US. President Tsai has made her resistance to Beijing the crux of her reelection campaign for a 2020 general election where she is fighting for another term.

Beijing’s decision to end the tourism program is likely a direct response to Taiwan’s $2.2 billion arms purchase from the US, something that has inspired accusations of western interference from the mainland’s government. During a four-day visit to Washington last month, Tsai declared that Taiwan will “firmly defend our democratic system” as Beijing suggested that it could use force to speed up its plans for reunification, while increasing the frequency of live-fire drills in the Strait of Taiwan.

“(Tsai’s) Democratic Progressive Party is continually pushing activities to promote Taiwan’s independence and inciting hostility toward the mainland, seriously undermining the conditions for mainland travelers to visit the island,” said Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office.

“I believe compatriots on both sides of the strait hope relations will return to a correct track of peaceful development, allowing travel by mainland residents to Taiwan to return to normal as soon as possible,” Ma said, according to mainland press reports.

According to Reuters, President Tsai rebuked China’s decision on Thursday, saying the move was intended to influence the upcoming presidential election. Taiwan saw strong economic growth during the second quarter, something that the island’s economist chalked up to an increase in tourists from the mainland.

“Using tourists as political tools would only create antipathy in Taiwanese people,” President Tsai told reporters in the presidential palace in Taipei. “Tourism shouldn’t be politicized.”

She also said Beijing has used its control over tourism to Taiwan to influence elections in the past.

end
CHINA//USA
For those of you who think it was just Trump going on a rampage with his tweet initializing tariffs against China..guess again. With Trump in his meeting was Mnuchin, Mulvaney, Navarro and Kudlow.
(zerohedge)

It Wasn’t Just Trump: Tariff Tweet Came After Review From Mnuchin, Mulvaney, Navarro And Kudlow

As humorously pointed out earlier, any trader who stepped our for lunch around 1pm, was in shock when the came back following the Trump tweet which not only reignited the trade war with China, leaving the G-20 ceasefire in the trash heap of history, but also sent stocks plunging, with the Dow tumbling more than 500 points from its intraday highs.

Which, naturally prompted question: was Trump again alone when he decided to send out a tweet that roiled every asset class, or was there more coordination this time?

The answer comes from CNBC’s Eamon Javers, who tweets that far from unilateral, Trump’s tweet came “in the wake of an 11:30 meeting this morning at which President Trump got a report from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on their meetings in Shanghai this week.”

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

A White House official tells me this Twet comes in the wake of an 11:30 meeting this morning at which President Trump got a report from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on their meetings in Shanghai this week. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1156979443900067841 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Our representatives have just returned from China where they had constructive talks having to do with a future Trade Deal. We thought we had a deal with China three months ago, but sadly, China decided to re-negotiate the deal prior to signing. More recently, China agreed to…

What happened then? As Javers follows up, “a number of officials were in the room with President Trump as he drafted this Tweet, advising him on language. Among those: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, Acting COS Mulvaney, trade advisor Navarro, and NEC Director Kudlow.”

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

An administration official tells me a number of officials were in the room with President Trump as he drafted this Tweet, advising him on language. Among those: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, Acting COS Mulvaney, trade advisor Navarro, and NEC Director Kudlow. https://twitter.com/eamonjavers/status/1156985228604428288 

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

A White House official tells me this Twet comes in the wake of an 11:30 meeting this morning at which President Trump got a report from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on their meetings in Shanghai this week. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1156979443900067841 

In other words, with Beijing unable to blame solely Trump’s unpredictable outbursts and mood swings, Xi Jinping will have to respond to what was clearly a change in strategy from the entire administration. And with the offshore Chinese Yuan plummeting nearly 700 pips against the dollar in what was a clear and present, if contained, devaluation, Beijing appears to have already made its unofficial response.

And now it’s up to Trump to once again slam the Fed for not devaluing the dollar even more – by cutting rates further – something which we expect will take place momentarily.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

With the Brexit weighing heavily on the UK, the Bank of England keeps rates unchanged at .75%.  It refuses to even consider what will happen if there is a “no deal” Brexit.  Cable plummets

(zerohedge)

 

 

BOE Keeps Rates On Hold, Refuses To Consider “No Deal” Brexit As Cable Plummets

With the pound tumbling below 1.21 ahead of today’s BOE announcement, traders indicated a virtual certainty that the central bank would be dovish, and why not when even the Fed had cut rate less than 24 hour earlier. So it was perhaps a modest surprise – even if the outcome was as consensus expected – that the BOE did not cut rates, and instead voted unanimously to keep rates at 0.75% and to keep asset purchases unchanged, while noting that it is less confident than usual about the outlook for the economy because of Brexit while offering little new insight into the impact of how it would react to a “no deal” outcome.

Specifically, when it comes to its view on Brexit, the MPC specifically excluded the possibility of no dealassuming a smooth Brexit and reiterated that interest rates will need to gradually rise to bring inflation to target. while noting that evidence suggests that uncertainty over the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU has become more entrenched.

Among its other underlying assumptions of projections, the BOE’s MPC notes that projections are impacted by an inconsistency between the Bank’s smooth Brexit assumption underpinning the forecasts and the prevailing market asset prices on which the forecasts are also conditioned.

  • On rates, the BOE maintained the view that on the basis of the assumption of a smooth Brexit and some recovery in global growth (new inclusion), the MPC continues to judge that increases in interest rates, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target. The response to Brexit, whatever form it takes, will not be automatic and could be in either direction
  • On domestic growth, the BOE maintained the view that Q2 growth is expected to be flat. On the basis of current Brexit assumptions, underlying output growth is expected to be subdued in the near-term. Thereafter, GDP is expected to accelerate to robust growth rates as Brexit-related uncertainties dissipate.
  • On Global Growth, the BOE noted that global trade tensions have intensified since May and global activity remains soft
  • On inflation, after falling in the near-term, CPI is expected to rise above the 2% target, with CPI to reach 2.4% by the end of the three-year forecast period.
  • On labor/wages, the central bank said that the Labour market remains tight and annual pay growth has been relatively strong

These comments were the bank’s first since Boris Johnson became prime minster on a mission to leave the European Union on Oct. 31 with or without new trading arrangements in place. If there’s no deal, the BOE merely noted again that the pound will fall, inflation will accelerate and growth will slow.

While that BOE’s non-committal forecast and lack of Brexit discussion meant Governor Mark Carney avoids a political headache, it disappointed others who are looking for more clues as to how the BOE might respond to no deal.

That communications problem has dogged the governor for some time. To account for the market currently pricing in a rate cut because of the greater chance of a bumpy departure from the EU, the BOE gave some stylized forecasts based on higher pound and interest rates. They show much slower inflation than the central scenario.

“The increased uncertainty about the nature of EU withdrawal meant that the economy could follow a wide range of paths over coming years,” the BOE said. “The appropriate path of monetary policy would depend on the balance of the effects of Brexit on demand, supply and exchange rate.”

Meanwhile, as Brexit keeps the BOE in wait-and-see mode, the world’s biggest central banks are turning dovish as global growth cools and trade tensions persist. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday delivered a quarter-point cut and suggested there’s more to come. The European Central Bank is looking at adding more stimulus as early as September.

Acknowledging the weaker global backdrop, the BOE lowered its forecast for economic growth this year, sees slower export growth and weak business investment persisting into 2020. In the stylized forecasts, one quarter-point rate hike over the next three years brings inflation below the 2% target. That compares with a central forecast, based on the market’s expectation of a quarter-point cut, for inflation to pick up to 2.4%. The forecast also sees excess demand at a whopping 1.75%. As Bloomberg notes, in normal circumstances, that would imply that the BOE should be raising rates soon. But given the uncertainty around Brexit, all nine policy makers deemed the current stance appropriate.

With cable having collapsed by a record amount heading into today’s decision, the pound barely moved after the announcement of the decision not to cut rates.

END

Europe

August is a big month for Europe to go on vacation.  Inflation has ripped many and as such many Europeans cannot afford a vacation

(zerohedge)

Many Europeans Can’t Afford A Vacation

In major cities across Europe, particularly in Spain and France, a major exodus occurs in August.

In Madrid, for example, traffic becomes quieter, restaurants close and offices lie empty as locals flock to the coast to escape the stifling heat. These holiday migrations, as Statista’s Niall McCarthy explains, are the norm in both countries where people can easily take them for granted.

There are exceptions, however, with new and depressing data from Eurostat showing that holidays are simply unaffordable for large numbers of Europeans.

 

Infographic: Many Europeans Can't Afford A One-Week Holiday | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The highest share of people who could not afford a one-week holiday away from home in 2018 was recorded in Romania at 59 percent. Croatia came second with 51.3 percent while Greece and Cyprus were tied for third with 51 percent. Large proportions of the population in Italy (43.7 percent), Ireland (35.3 percent) and Poland (34.6 percent) also said a one-week holiday was out of their financial grasp. Even in Spain where long holidays in August are typical, 34.2 percent of people said they still could not pay the costs of a week-long break.

END
UK/USA
Bill Blain explains the stupidity of Powell’s “adjustment” rate cut.  He also comments on the “no deal” Brexit which seems to be fomenting
(courtesy Bill Blain)

Blain: This Was The Most Pointless Rate Cut In Fed History

 

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

With one hand the Fed giveth, a 25 bp basis point cut, but on the other it taketh – Powell’s “mid-cycle adjustment” left markets confused.

Where is the easing to negative-infinity they’d been promised?  The yield curve inverted (spawning a host of headlines about how the bond market again predicts a recession), the dollar strengthened (well, of course it would), and stocks did nothing till they stumbled and fell a bit – a toddler screaming that “insuring against downside risks” should mean a promise of another cut, stunned when Powell said “it’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts.”

Thus occurred the most pointless rate cut in Fed history – easing rates in a “healthy” economy pretty much at full employment with a “favourable” outlook, where the only real problem is massively inflated financial asset bubbles.   The effect will be to juice already distorted financial assets higher. Marvellous (US readers – sarcasm alert).

Two Fed Voting governors dissented – give them medals.

Trump tweeted: “As usual, Powell let us down.”  Helpful.  Donald wants a “lengthy and aggressive rate cut cycle which will keep pace with China, The European Union and other countries…” Predictable.

Blain’s Brexit Watch

As Boris plans to pour billions into No-Deal Preparations, the Irish accuse him of Bullying tactics, and Labour gets ready to offer a second referendum as their response, it’s all get terribly exciting. (It also deeply depressing – just writing this makes me wonder if I am suffering PTSD?) The feelgood Boris engendered just a week ago is already wearing thin. All the bluff and bluster needs balanced by something tangible. As yet, we aren’t seeing it. This is leading to lots of questions – does Boris need to engage with Brussels and go visit.

The Answer from Downing Street will be no. Dominic Cummings will insist. Let others respond to the challenge of an agreement that Boris has laid down. No Engagement. Europe will come to us. (Seriously?)

The result is going to be further uncertainty, confustion and opportunities for Project Fear Remoaners to snipe and moan.

Pundits now see the likelihood of a No-Deal at 30% and rising, with Sterling heading lower to $1.15.

Hold onto your seats boys and girls. This is going to get rough before we land.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey

A super commentary explaining to us the huge problems that Europe will face if they allow Turkey into the EU fold. The problem of course is the 3.5 migrants still housed inside Turkey.  If they do allow Turkey into the fold 11 million poor Turks will cross into Europe.  Also the Kurds will flee to Germany.  On the other side of the coin, the release of 3.5 migrants into Europe will kill the 28 nation accord financially

(Kern/Gatestone)

Turkey Threatens To Reignite European Migrant Crisis

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

  • “We are facing the biggest wave of migration in history. If we open the floodgates, no European government will be able to survive for more than six months. We advise them not to try our patience.” — Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu.
  • Turkey is fully committed to the objective of EU membership… The finalization of the Visa Liberalization Dialogue process which will allow our citizens to travel to the Schengen area without a visa, is our first priority.” — Statement released by the Turkish Foreign Ministry, May 9, 2019.
  • “This doesn’t mean that I have anything against the Turks…. But if we begin to explain it — that Turkey is in Europe — European school students will have to be told that the European border lies in Syria. Where’s common sense? … Can Turkey be regarded a European country culturally, historically, and economically speaking? If we say that, we want the European Union’s death.” — Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
  • If the EU approves the visa waiver, tens of millions of Turks will gain immediate and unimpeded access to Europe’s passport-free zone. Critics of visa liberalization fear that millions of Turkish nationals may end up migrating to Europe. The Austrian newsmagazine, Wochenblick, reported that 11 million Turks are living in poverty and “many of them are dreaming of moving to central Europe.”

Turkey has threatened to re-open the floodgates of mass migration to Europe unless Turkish nationals are granted visa-free travel to the European Union. The EU agreed to visa liberalization in a March 2016 EU-Turkey migrant deal in which Ankara pledged to stem the flow of migrants to Europe.

Pictured: The Adiyaman refugee camp in Turkey. (Image source: UNHCR)

European officials insist that while Turkey has reduced the flow of migrants, it has not yet met all of the requirements for visa liberalization. Moreover, EU foreign ministers on July 15 decided to halt high-level talks with Ankara as part of sanctions over Turkish oil and gas drilling off the coast of Cyprus.

In an interview with Turkish television channel TGRT Haber on July 22, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavuşoğlu said that Turkey was backing out of the migrant deal because the EU had failed to honor its pledge to grant Turkish passport holders visa-free access to 26 European countries.

“We have suspended the readmission agreement,” he said. “We will not wait at the EU’s door.”

A day earlier, Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu accused European countries of leaving Turkey alone to deal with the migration issue. In comments published by the state news agency Anadolu Agency, he warned:

We are facing the biggest wave of migration in history. If we open the floodgates, no European government will be able to survive for more than six months. We advise them not to try our patience.”

The migration deal, which entered into force on June 1, 2016, was hastily negotiated by European leaders desperate to gain control over a crisis in which more than one million migrants poured into Europe in 2015.

Under the agreement, the EU pledged to pay Turkey €6 billion ($6.7 billion), grant visa-free travel to Europe for Turkey’s 82 million citizens, and restart accession talks for Turkey to join the EU. In exchange, Turkey agreed to stop the flow of migrants to Europe as well as to take back all migrants and refugees who illegally reach Greece from Turkey.

Turkey currently hosts an estimated 3.5 million migrants and refugees — mainly Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans. Many of these people presumably would migrate to Europe if given the opportunity to do so.

Responding to Çavuşoğlu’s remarks, EU spokesperson Natasha Bertaud insisted that Turkey’s continued enforcement of the EU-Turkey deal remains a condition for visa liberalization.

Turkish officials have repeatedly accused the EU of failing to keep its end of the bargain, especially with respect to visa liberalization and accession to the EU.

Under the agreement, European officials promised to fast-track visa-free access for Turkish nationals to the Schengen (open-bordered) passport-free zone by June 30, 2016 and to restart Turkey’s stalled EU membership talks by the end of July 2016.

To qualify for the visa waiver, Turkey had until April 30, 2016 to meet 72 conditions. These include: bringing the security features of Turkish passports up to EU standards; sharing information on forged and fraudulent documents used to travel to the EU, and granting work permits to non-Syrian migrants in Turkey.

European officials say that although Turkey has fulfilled most of their conditions, it has failed to comply with the most important one: relaxing its stringent anti-terrorism laws, which are being used to silence critics of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Since Turkey’s failed coup on July 15, 2016, more than 95,000 Turkish citizens have been arrested and at least 160,000 civil servants, teachers, journalists, police officers and soldiers have been fired or suspended from various state-run institutions.

Responding to the purge, the European Parliament on March 13, 2019 called for EU accession negotiations with Turkey to be suspended. “While the EU accession process was at its start a strong motivation for reforms in Turkey, there has been a stark regression in the areas of the rule of law and human rights during the last few years,” according to the adopted text.

Turkey was first promised EU membership in September 1963, when it signed an “Association Agreement” aimed at establishing a customs union to pave the way for eventual accession to the EU. Turkey formally applied for EU membership in April 1987 and membership talks began in October 2005.

Turkey’s EU accession talks stalled in December 2006 after the Turkish government refused to open Turkish ports and airports to trade from Cyprus. Since then, talks have continued on and off, but the process has been stalled due to political opposition from France and Germany, among others.

If Turkey were to join the EU, it would overtake Germany to become the EU’s largest member in terms of population. Consequently, the EU’s largest member state would be Muslim. Some European officials have warned that Turkish accession would cause Europe to “implode” and be “Islamized.”

Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy has said that Turkey has no place in the EU. In a February 2016 interview with the French news channel iTélé, he expressed sentiments that presumably are shared by many Europeans:

“Turkey has no place in Europe. I have always adhered to this position, it is based on common sense. This doesn’t mean that I have anything against the Turks. We need them, they are our allies in NATO. But if we begin to explain it — that Turkey is in Europe — European school students will have to be told that the European border lies in Syria. Where’s common sense?

“It’s not just that. What’s the idea behind Europe? Europe is a union of European countries. The question is very simple, even in a geographical sense, is Turkey a European country? Turkey has only one shore of the Bosporus in Europe. Can Turkey be regarded a European country culturally, historically, and economically speaking? If we say that, we want the European Union’s death.”

On May 9, 2019, Erdoğan said that Turkey was committed to joining the EU. A statement released by the Turkish Foreign Ministry noted:

“Turkey remains committed to its objective of EU membership and continues its efforts in this respect…. Our expectation from the EU is to treat Turkey on equal footing with other candidate countries and to remove political barriers on the way of negotiations which is supposed to be a technical process…

“Although our accession negotiations are politically blocked, Turkey decisively continues its efforts for alignment with the EU standards. In the meeting today, we have set out the current developments in Turkey and agreed on the steps to be taken in the forthcoming period.

“The finalization of the Visa Liberalization Dialogue process which will allow our citizens to travel to the Schengen area without a visa, is our first priority.”

Even if Turkey complies with all of the EU’s demands, it seems unlikely that Turkish nationals will be granted visa-free travel anytime soon. On July 15, EU foreign ministers formally linked progress on Turkish-EU relations to Cyprus. A measure adopted by the European Council on July 15 states:

The Council deplores that, despite the European Union’s repeated calls to cease its illegal activities in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey continued its drilling operations west of Cyprus and launched a second drilling operation northeast of Cyprus within Cypriot territorial waters. The Council reiterates the serious immediate negative impact that such illegal actions have across the range of EU-Turkey relations. The Council calls again on Turkey to refrain from such actions, act in a spirit of good neighborliness and respect the sovereignty and sovereign rights of Cyprus in accordance with international law….

“In light of Turkey’s continued and new illegal drilling activities, the Council decides to suspend … further meetings of the EU-Turkey high-level dialogues for the time being. The Council endorses the Commission’s proposal to reduce the pre-accession assistance to Turkey for 2020.”

European officials may be justified in taking a hardline stance against Turkey, but Ankara is well positioned to create chaos for the European Union if it chooses to do so. Indeed, Europe appears to be trapped in a no-win situation.

If the EU approves the visa waiver, tens of millions of Turks will gain immediate and unimpeded access to Europe’s passport-free zone. Critics of visa liberalization fear that millions of Turkish nationals may end up migrating to Europe. The Austrian newsmagazine, Wochenblickreported that 11 million Turks are living in poverty and “many of them are dreaming of moving to central Europe.”

Others believe that Erdoğan views the visa waiver as an opportunity to “export” Turkey’s “Kurdish Problem” to Germany. Markus Söder, the head of the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian sister party to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, warned that millions of Kurds are poised to take advantage of the visa waiver to flee to Germany to escape persecution at the hands of Erdoğan: “We are importing an internal Turkish conflict. In the end, fewer migrants may arrive by boat, but more will arrive by airplane.”

On the other hand, if the EU rejects the visa waiver, and Turkey retaliates by reopening the migration floodgates, potentially hundreds of thousands of migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East could once again begin flowing into Europe.

END
Iran/Strait of Hormuz.//Oil tankers
As tensions flare up between the uSA and Iran more ships are turning off their transponders and thus “going dark”
as they proceed through the Strait of Hormuz
(zerohedge)

As Tensions Flare Between US & Iran, More Oil Tankers Are ‘Going Dark’ In The Strait Of Hormuz

Given the rising tension in the Strait of Hormuz, and the mysterious spate of seemingly random attacks on tankers that some have blamed on Iran, it’s no surprise that more captains transporting shipments of crude and LNG through one of the busiest corridors for the global energy trade feel the need to keep a low profile, according to Bloomberg.

Which is apparently why more ships are turning off their transponders – “going dark”, in industry jargon – a technique that is typically used by smugglers and those hoping to avoid American sanctions.

But this time, ships are going dark mostly as a precaution. Following a buildup of military personnel in the region, most carriers fear the prospects of open war between Iran and a coalition of the Americans and the Saudis, or at the very least, more sporadic attacks on vessels that are still simply trying to scratch out a living.

In at least one way, the fact that ships are “going dark” is ironic: Because Iranian ships pioneered the technique while trying to bypass the American sanctions regime.

Copying from Iran’s own playbook, at least 20 ships turned off their transponders while passing through the strait this month, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Others appear to have slightly altered their routes once inside the Persian Gulf, sailing closer than usual to Saudi Arabia’s coast en route to ports in Kuwait or Iraq.

Some ships are also trying out new routes that involve spending less time, or no time, in Iran’s territorial waters.

Before the latest increase in tensions with Iran, ships were more consistent about signaling their positions as they passed through a waterway that handles a third of seaborne petroleum. Once inside the Gulf, shipping routes took them fairly close to the Iranian coast, skirting the offshore South Pars/North gas field shared by Iran and Qatar. Most still do, but a growing number appear to be trying something new.

It’s little surprise that ships are doing everything possible to minimize risk. The Gulf region has witnessed a spate of vessel attacks, tanker seizures and drone shoot-downs since May, all against the backdrop of U.S. sanctions aimed at crippling Iran. War-risk insurance soared for tanker owners seeking to load cargoes in the region.

Two British warships are now stationed in the region, and stand ready to assist tankers flagged for Britain. The Norwegian Maritime Authority recently warned its vessels to avoid taking unnecessary risks by minimizing transit time in Iran’s territorial waters. All of this is making tanker captains increasingly nervous about the risks of getting caught in the crossfire between Iran and the US, and some ships have been looking at alternate routes that don’t involve going anywhere near the Strait.

By Bloomberg‘s count, at least 12 tankers loaded in Saudi Arabia and shut off their transponders while passing through the strait within the past month, including the supertanker Kahla, which turned off its transponder on July 20 before passing through the strait. At least eight vessels that loaded in Iraq and Kuwait went dark while leaving the Strait of Hormuz. A vessel shipping from the UAE also dropped off tracking systems.

And as long as tankers keep getting attacked, or captured, expect this trend to continue.

END

6.Global Issues

Ebola

Rwanda shuts its border with the Congo after ebola deaths hit its border city of Goma

(zerohedge)

Rwanda Shuts Border With DRC After Ebola Deaths Hit Border City

Rwanda closed a major part of its border with the Democratic Republic of Congo on Thursday after people died of Ebola amid the second worst outbreak in history. So far the disease has killed more than 1,800 people and sickened over 2,600.

 

A boy having his temperature checked in the city of Goma, a transit hub on Congo’s border with Rwanda that has had two cases of Ebola confirmed so far.CreditCreditPamela Tulizo/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The latest victim died just days after his case was confirmed by medical professionals in the border city of Goma, home to over 2 million people and an international airport, according to officials in Congo.

the Congolese Health Ministry said the 1-year-old daughter of a man who had died of the disease in the border city of Goma had Ebola.

The man was Goma’s second confirmed Ebola case, and he died on Wednesday after spending several days at home with his family while showing symptoms. –NYT

Aside from the two deaths, the 1-year-old girl’s case marks the first known transmission of the disease in the city. The first confirmed case in Goma was a 46-year-old preacher who was able to successfully pass through three checkpoints on his way from Butembo, according to Fox News.

 

In this Sunday, July 14, 2019 photo, Red Cross workers carry the remains of 16-month-old Muhindo Kakinire from the morgue into a truck as health workers disinfect the area in Beni, Congo. The World Health Organization has declared the Ebola outbreak an international emergency. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay) via Fox News

The World Health Organization, meanwhile, has recommended against travel restrictions – however warns that the risk of regional spread is “very high.”

“The challenges to stopping further transmission are indeed considerable. But none are insurmountable,” reads a Wednesday statement from WHO. “And none can be an excuse for not getting the job done.

 

The border crossing has been closed after more cases were reported in Goma, eastern DR Congo (Reuters)

According to the Congolese government, there was a “unilateral decision by the Rwandan authorities” to close the border crossing at Goma, according to the BBC. “The Congolese authorities deplore this decision, which runs counter to the advice of the WHO,” the statement continues.

Last week Saudi Arabia stopped issuing visas to people from the DRC, citing the Ebola outbreak, shortly before the Islamic Republic’s annual pilgrimage this month.

According to Mayor Gilbert Habayarimana of Rubavu district in neighboring western Rwanda, the Goma border was closed “to avoid unnecessary crossings,” adding “We are closely monitoring the situation at Goma, the border can be reopened anytime, when the situation improves.”

Health officials for months feared that an Ebola case would be confirmed in the city. Just days after the first Goma case was confirmed, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Ebola outbreak a rare global emergency – the highest level of alarm.

The organization has used such an alarm level only four times in its history, including the Ebola epidemic that took the lives of more than 11,000 people in West Africa between 2014 and 2016.

While the alert prompted a surge of millions of dollars in new pledges by international donors, health workers say a new approach is desperately needed to combat misunderstandings in the community that lead people with Ebola not to seek medical help. –Fox News

Rwandans who regularly cross the border at Goma have also expressed their concerns.

“The closure is terrible for me. My seven children and I get something to eat when I go to Goma for work. Yes, Ebola is a terrible thing, but living is what matters most,” said builder Ernest Mvuyekure, who works in the city.

“I am more afraid of hunger than Ebola, they should not close the border. I would rather die of sickness than of hunger.

end
USA//USA/CHINA/USA/IRAN
Now it is Michael Every’s turn to comment on the uSA rate cut and what it means.  He also discusses the non existent Chinese USA trade deal
(courtesy Michael Every Rabobank)

The First Cut Is The Weakest

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

The First Cut Is The Weakest

I would have given you all of my mark (to market); but there’s someone who’s torn it apart

And he’s taking just all that I had; but if you wanna try to buy again

Baby, I’ll try to buy again, but I know

The first cut is the weakest, baby, I know; The first cut is the weakest

But when it comes to being lucky, he’s cursed; When it comes to lovin’ Trump, he’s worse

With apologies to Sheryl Crow and none to the Fed, what a mess! The FOMC cut 25bp yesterday, despite starting the year planning further hikes, despite ultra-low unemployment, and despite their own general admission that everything is basically awesome. Yet we ended the day with stocks lower, the US yield curve viciously flattening, most so 2-30s, and the USD at a 2-year high. (A trend that doesn’t surprise us.) Mission ‘mis-accomplished’, Mr Powell.

What was the Fed’s key error? As our Fed whisperer Philip Marey points out here, basically the Fed Chair tried to make the case in his press conference that this was not the start of a proper easing cycle, but rather just a mid-cycle adjustment where rates could even go back up again at some point rather than just down, down, and down, as the market wanted to hear. NB You don’t not give the market what it wants: or at least you don’t and keep your job. Immediately following the Fed cut and market wobbly, President Trump tweeted: “What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve was that this was the beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate-cutting cycle which would keep pace with China, The European Union and other countries around the world. As usual, Powell let us down, but at least he is ending quantitative tightening, which shouldn’t have started in the first place – no inflation. We are winning anyway, but I am certainly not getting much help from the Federal Reserve!”

Trump would probably have been happier if there had been a 50bp cut, as in Brazil, on which note see Maurico Oreng’s coverage here; or perhaps even a 425bp cut as was last seen in Turkey? Regardless, our view remains the Fed will be dragged into a full-blown rate-cutting cycle – once it’s too late to prevent a US recession in 2020.

If that wasn’t enough for markets to fret about, over in Shanghai the US-China trade talks ended early with no results whatsoever. Indeed, the official stage-managed group photo released post-meeting was taken in front of a wall covered in ancient Chinese poetry I am reliably informed implies “It would be nice to have it, but we can live without it, and we will persevere.” True, the Tweet-happy editor of China’s Global Times let us know that in his view it was an “efficient and constructive deep exchange” but to my mind that is probably a script like this:

LIGHTHIZER: “Are you ready to make deep changes to the Chinese economy?”

LIU HE: “No. Are you ready to drop tariffs to allow more constructive market access for China?”

LIGHTHIZER: “No.”

LIU HE: “ OK, at least that was efficient. Let’s take a photo and you can go home.”

Of course, our view remains that there is no real trade deal to be done even if the two sides meet again in September: and that’s also a strong USD story.

Meanwhile, there were other things happening yesterday. The US is apparently not going to remove waivers on foreign firms involved in Iran’s civilian nuclear program, which eases tensions a little; but it is going to personally sanction Iranian Foreign Minister Zariff after all. Iran itself is about to drop three zeroes from its struggling Rial, which US sanctions have crushed, and rename the currency the Toman. “Same-same but different,” as the Thais say. The US senate is also pressing ahead with a bill to put sanctions on any firms involved in building Nordstream 2 and Turkstream, the new gas pipelines Russia has been pressing ahead with to bring supplies to Europe while circumventing Ukraine. That’s yet another potential US-EU clash brewing, which an EU economy growing at 1.1% y/y and with core CPI at 1.1% y/y is of course ideally placed for.

In Asia, China has banned individual travel to Taiwan for its citizens starting from today in a demonstration of what strong-arm trade tactics really look like: who will be next to feel that cosh, one wonders? Luckily, Bloomberg reports of the PLA massing on Hong Kong’s border in Guangdong were wrong: it is merely 190,000 police officers, including helicopters and armoured vehicles, who are marching up and down in a warm-up for the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic a long, long way from Beijing where these things usually happen. All a coincidence, of course, as Hong Kong heads to more protests this weekend and rumours of a general strike on Monday. Meanwhile, the HKMA has happily cut rates to follow the Fed, having not really raised rates much most of the time the Fed has been doing so. But it’s hardly alone in that, now is it?

END

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1038 DOWN .0033 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED/GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.95 UP 0.084 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2111   DOWN   0.0042  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3219 UP .0025 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 23.74 POINTS OR 0.81% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 212.05 POINTS OR 0.76%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,36%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 212.05 POINTS OR 0.76%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.74 POINTS OR 0.81%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 36% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 10.46  POINTS OR .07%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1405.90

silver:$15.98-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.04% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.54 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.86 UP 34 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 34% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.13%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.29%//DOWN 13 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,58  up 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 139 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.45% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.03% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1059  DOWN   .00121 or12 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.25 DOWN .571 OR YEN UP 57  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2137 DOWN .0016 POUND DOWN 16  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 8 basis points to 1.3203

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8986    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9058  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.5692 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.13%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 10 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.96 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.48 DOWN 9 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.61 UP 10  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 1.80 OR   0.04%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 64.11 POINTS OR .53%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 38.51 POINTS 0.70%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 67.2 POINTS or 0.75%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 168.72 POINTS OR 0.79%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.86 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.40 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.87  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.21 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 21 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.45 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  54.50//

 

 

BRENT :  60.97

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.88… down a huge 13 basis pts

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.43 down a huge 10 basis points….

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1088 ( UP 17   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.33 DOWN 1.496 (YEN UP 150 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.37 DOWN 15 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2146 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6065

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.34   DOWN 0.68 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 68 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3215 DOWN 20 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8986  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9560 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.45%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 280.85 POINTS OR 1.05%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 146.55 POINTS OR 1.12%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.04 CLOSED UP 1.92

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.265%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks, Yuan, Oil, & Bond Yields Collapse As Trump Calls Powell’s Bluff

Adjust your tin-foil-heat for one second but we can’t help but wonder if this is President Trump calling Fed Chair Powell’s bluff over an “extended easing cycle.” Trump quickly realized after yesterday’s Powell performance that he just needs to destabilize China for The Fed to keep cutting (or cut rate quicker).

Trump’s action sent September rate-cut expectations to 95% (from 61%)

 

And the market’s expectation has shifted dramatically dovish from 1.5 rate-cuts in 2019 to 2 rate-cuts…

 

 

Dismal ISM and Construction Spending data sparked a rally in bonds and stocks this morning (because bad news is good news as it forces Powell’s hand to tilt more dovish), but then Trump surprised with new broad tariffs on China imports and that sent stocks, yuan, oil prices, and bond yields crashing.

Bonds & Gold (and the dollar) are best post-Powell/Trump with stocks down…

 

US equities are all down hard… Trannies are the weakest with the rest of the majors down around 2% post-Powell and Trump…

 

 

Dow futures swung 600 points from high to low…

 

 

As expected, cyclical stocks were hammered on the trade headlines…

 

 

FANG Stocks were ugly…

 

 

VIX surged intraday to 19.00 – its highest since the start of June…

 

And the seasonal surge in risk has only just begun…

 

 

And the VIX term structure has shifted dramatically…

 

 

Credit markets shit the bed today…

 

 

The jaws of death were starting to narrow until Trump sent yields crashing…

 

 

Bond bears were battered (short-end outperformed the long-end – 2Y down 17bps, 30Y down 10bps)…

 

 

10Y Yields crashed to their lowest since before the Trump election…

 

 

2Y Yields collapsed (down over 25bps from yesterday’s highs)…

 

 

The yield curve (3m10Y) collapsed…

 

 

The dollar dumped on dismal data (more easing) and then again on Trump tariffs…

 

 

Yuan was clubbed like a baby seal (plunging almost 7 handles!), crashing to its weakest against the USD since Oct 2018…

 

 

Gold in sterling surged to a record high…

 

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000…

 

 

But Litecoin is leading on the week…

 

 

WTI plunged and gold surged as Trump’s tariff headlines hit…

 

 

Oil prices utterly collapsed – with WTI crashing 8% – the biggest drop since Feb 2015…

 

Spot Gold was just about to test $1400 when the dismal data hit this morning and then accelerated higher on the Trump Tariff headlines…

 

Gold has outperformed Silver for the last few days…

 

Gold and Bitcoin rallied as the global volume of negative-yielding debt tops $14 trillion (and that is before Europe opens)

 

Finally, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott noted earlier…

“I wonder how many times the Fed knew they were embarking on a massive easing cycle when they made their first cut. My guess is not many.”

Not many indeed.

And as a reminder, Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg reminds us that:

“Only one other time has the market declined the day of the first rate cut — in October 1987. Thanks for the walk-back, Jay!”

Trade accordingly.

END

And now your more imp

Important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

This is exactly opposite to what Powell wants and needs.  He wanted the uSA 10 yr yield to rise to 2,10 or above.  He got the rate to now drop below 2.00%.  On top of this the entire yield curve collapses and that signals rate policy error again.  The 10 yr rate is the most important data we receive as it tells us the price of money.  Obviously it for tells us that something ominous is going to occur,

(zerohedge)

10Y Treasury Yield Plunges Below 2.00% As Curve Collapses

This is not what The Fed’s “insurance” rate-cut was supposed to do…

10Y Yield has just tumbled back below 2.00% (for the first time since July 5th)…

And the yield curve – wherever you look – is collapsing…

In other words – the bond market is screaming – “Policy Error!!”

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON (EARLY)

STOCKS SOAR BUT YIELDS CRASH AFTER A BAD PMI/ISM MFG NUMBER

(ZEROHEDGE)

Stocks Soar, Bond Yields Crash After “Terrible Enough” ISM/Construction Spending

And so we are back – bad news is great news.

zerohedge@zerohedge
View image on Twitter

A dismal ISM print followed by an even worse construction spending data has sparked a renewed hope that things are just shitty enough to force The Fed to cut cut cut more than Powell would like to admit.

zerohedge@zerohedge

Nevermind, it was terrible enoughhttps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1156928036706627585 

zerohedge@zerohedge

The ISM wasn’t terrible enough to send stocks soaring

Stocks are loving it…

Bond yields are collapsing…10Y is back at 1.94%

The yield curve is collapsing…

And the hawkish surge in the dollar is unwinding…

What a farce!!

end

THEN BANG!!!  Did that escalate fast!!..the good news:  Powell has now more room to cut rates

stocks and yuan and bond yields crash as Trump unleashes new Chinese tariffs

(zerohedge)

Stocks, Yuan, Bond Yields Crash As Trump Unleashes New China Tariffs

Just as investors thought it was safe to buy-the f**king-dip after Powell’s plunge, President Trump steals the jam out of their donut by announcing new China tariffs…

“… on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country “

In a series of tweets, Trump laid out the state of the China trade deal… in a word – terrible…

Our representatives have just returned from China where they had constructive talks having to do with a future Trade Deal. We thought we had a deal with China three months ago, but sadly, China decided to re-negotiate the deal prior to signing. More recently, China agreed to…

…buy agricultural product from the U.S. in large quantities, but did not do so. Additionally, my friend President Xi said that he would stop the sale of Fentanyl to the United States – this never happened, and many Americans continue to die! Trade talks are continuing, and…

…during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country. This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already Tariffed at 25%…

…We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one!

And just like that – gains were gone…

And 10Y Treasury yields crash to 1.89% – the lowest since 2016…

And the jaws of death widen…

As 10Y yields have now dropped below Trump Election lows…

2Y Yields are freefalling!!!

And yuan plunged…

Erasing all the trade-truce gains…

On the bright side – we are sure this will give Powell more room to cut more.

end

ii)Market data/USA

I need everyone to pay attention to this latest input data. The USA manufacturing PMI plunges to a 10 year low.  This is a hard data entry point. You will recall that there are two reports which give us a picture of USA manufacturing: the PMI mfg data and the ISM data.  Generally the iSM data is much higher than the PMI. You will recall me stating that someone is right and someone is wrong when both of them give opposite results.  Not today..both give plummeting data..the uSA is in some serious trouble economically today.

(zerohedge)

“The Situation Is Crazy” – US Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 10-Year Lows

With China, Europe, and Japan Manufacturing PMIs are all signaling contractionUS Manufacturing PMI dropped to its weakest since September 2009 (at 50.4 vs 50.6 prior) and ISM Manufacturing tumbled to 51.2 – the lowest since Aug 2016.

While manufacturing makes up only about 11% of the U.S. economy, the risk is that further weakness will extend to service providers and prompt those companies to reduce investment and limit hiring, endangering the record-long expansion.

 

Under the hood PMI is really ugly with employment contracting for the first time since June 2013 and output expectations plunge to record lows; and ISM employment and prices paid plunged even if respondents claim prices are soaring because of tariffs (as new orders rebounded modestly).

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

US manufacturing has entered into its sharpest downturn since 2009, suggesting the goods-producing sector is on course to act as a significant drag on the economy in the third quarter. The deterioration in the survey’s output index is indicative of manufacturing production declining at an annualised rate in excess of 3%.

 

Falling business spending at home and declining exports are the main drivers of the downturn, with firms also cutting back on input buying as the outlook grows gloomier. US manufacturers’ expectations of output in the year ahead has sunk to its lowest since comparable data were first available in 2012, with worries focused on the detrimental impact of escalating trade wars, fears of slower economic growth and rising geopolitical worries.

Employment is now also falling for only the second time in almost ten years as factories pull back on hiring amid the growing uncertainty.

More positively, new order inflows picked up for a second successive month. Although remaining worryingly subdued compared to the strong growth seen earlier in the year, the modest improvement will fuel hope that production growth could tick higher in August.”

While US Manufacturing PMI is at its weakest in a decade, it remains in expansion unlike the rest of the world…

And cue “cleanest dirty shirt” analogies.

We give the last word to one of the ISM respondents:

“China tariffs and pending Mexico tariffs are wreaking havoc with supply chains and costs. The situation is crazy, driving a huge amount of work [and] costs, as well as potential supply disruptions.” (Computer & Electronic Products)

END

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

My goodness, freight companies are falling like flies:  Terrill Transportation of Livermore California has just shut its doors on July 30

(zerohedge)

Yet Another Freight Company Unexpectedly Ceases Operations And Closes Its Doors

Yet another trucking company has fallen victim to the recession in freight this year, according to FreightWaves. Terrill Transportation of Livermore, California shut its doors unexpectedly on July 30. The company had been in business 25 years.

Customer Manny Bhandal, president of Bhandal Bros. Inc., said that three of his trucks arrived at Terrill on July 30 to drop off a shipment and were turned away. Kevin Terrill, president of Terrill Transportation, did not respond to FreightWaves.

“We did get an email from one of their receiving clerks, basically apologizing that they couldn’t receive our trucks because they were ceasing operations,” Bhandal said.

 

“This year has been very tough on a lot of companies,” he continued.

A chief executive of another trucking company based in the Northwest called Kevin Terrill, who confirmed the news over the phone.

“He [Kevin] said rate concessions on both the trucking and warehousing side, driver wages being up and the tough environment to do business in California were to blame for the closure,” the anonymous executive said.

Terrill had 30 trucks and 36 company drivers, in addition to 12 owner-operators. This closure marks the seventh freight company to shut down in 2019 alone, after NEMF, Falcon, Williams Trucking of Dothan, Alabama, and Indiana-based A.L.A. and Starlite Trucking and LME.

Recall, over the last month, we wrote about two other trucking companies that unexpectedly closed their doors due to the freight recession.

In mid July we announced that 40 year old California trucking outlet Timmerman Starlite Trucking, Inc. was the latest victim in the “trucking apocalypse” and announced that it would be shutting down effective immediately. 

Just days prior to that, we documented that regional truck carrier LME “suddenly and abruptly” shut its doors.

The company was a regional carrier based in Minnesota that operated throughout the Midwest. The company had terminals in 30 locations across the U.S. and through interline agreements services all of North America. It also worked with major companies like 3M, John Deere and Toro.

The company reportedly included “over 600 men and women” and has been listed as having 382 power units and 1,228 trailers, with 424 truck drivers. 

end
It is about time:  NY fire commissioners state that there is overwhelming evidence of a pre planted explosives which brought down 3 buildings with respect to 9/11.  They want an investigation
(zerohedge)

NY Fire Commissioners Demand New 9/11 Probe, Citing “Overwhelming Evidence of Pre-Planted Explosives”

New York area fire commissioners have called for a new investigation into 9/11, claiming that “overwhelming evidence” of “pre-planted explosives…caused the destruction of the three World Trade Center buildings.” The Franklin Square and Munson Fire District outside of Queens, New York made history by becoming the first legislative body in the country to support a new investigation into the events of 9/11, according to Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth.

The resolution, read aloud and passed during a July 24, 2019 meeting and calling for the investigation was drafted by Commissioner Christopher Gioia and was unanimously approved by the five commissioners.

According to Activist Post, Commissioner Christopher Gioia said: “We’re a tight-knit community and we never forget our fallen brothers and sisters. You better believe that when the entire fire service of New York State is on board, we will be an unstoppable force. We were the first fire district to pass this resolution. We won’t be the last.”

 

Franklin Square and Munson Fire District commissioners: Philip F. Malloy, Jr (left), Dennis G. Lyons (second from left): Joseph M. Torregrossa (center); Christopher L. Gioia (second from right); Les Saltzman (right).

According to the AE911 report:

The impact of 9/11 on the community extends well beyond the victims and their grieving families. On September 12, 2001, the Franklin Square Fire Department was called in to assist with the massive rescue and recovery effort that was just getting underway. Countless members of the department, including Gioia and Commissioner Philip Malloy (then rank-and-file firefighters), spent weeks on the pile searching in vain for civilians and fellow responders who might still be alive. Today, Malloy is one of thousands suffering chronic health effects.

The department also lost one of its own in Thomas J. Hetzel, affectionately referred to as “Tommy” by the commissioners. Hetzel was a full-time member of the New York Fire Department in addition to serving as a volunteer firefighter in Franklin Square. A touching memorial to Hetzel was on display during the meeting, and Hetzel’s widow, parents, and sister were all in attendance.

“The Hetzel and Evans families were very appreciative of the proceedings,” Gioia continued. “They know it’s an uphill struggle. But at least they have hope, which is something they haven’t had in a long time.”

Conversing with guests after the meeting, Commissioner Dennis Lyons said: “We have a memorial — a piece of steel from the World Trade Center with 28 holes where the nuts and bolts used to go. Every year on the 11th, we put a rose in each hole for the 24 Nassau County firefighters and four Franklin Square residents who died on 9/11.”

The department’s full resolution reads:

Whereas, the attacks of September 11, 2001, are inextricably and forever tied to the Franklin Square and Munson Fire Department;

Whereas, on September 11, 2001, while operating at the World Trade Center in New York City, firefighter Thomas J. Hetzel, badge #290 of Hook and Ladder Company #1, Franklin Square and Munson Fire Department of New York, was killed in performance of his duties, along with 2,976 other emergency responders and civilians;

Whereas, members of the Franklin Square and Munson Fire Department were called upon to assist in the subsequent rescue and recovery operations and cleanup of the World Trade Center site, afflicting many of them with life-threatening illnesses as a result of breathing the deadly toxins present at the site;

Whereas, the Board of Fire Commissioners of the Franklin Square and Munson Fire District recognizes the significant and compelling nature of the petition before the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York reporting un-prosecuted federal crimes at the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, and calling upon the United States Attorney to present that petition to a Special Grand Jury pursuant to the United States Constitution and 18 U.S.C. SS 3332(A);

Whereas, the overwhelming evidence presented in said petition demonstrates beyond any doubt that pre-planted explosives and/or incendiaries — not just airplanes and the ensuing fires — caused the destruction of the three World Trade Center buildings, killing the vast majority of the victims who perished that day;

Whereas, the victims of 9/11, their families, the people of New York City, and our nation deserve that every crime related to the attacks of September 11, 2001, be investigated to the fullest and that every person who was responsible face justice;

NOW THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the Board of Fire Commissioners of the Franklin Square and Munson Fire District fully supports a comprehensive federal grand jury investigation and prosecution of every crime related to the attacks of September 11, 2001, as well as any and all efforts by other government entities to investigate and uncover the full truth surrounding the events of that horrible day.

Richard Gage, AIA of Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth appeared on the Quoth the Raven podcast last Friday to discuss why he, and his organization, believe a new investigation is warranted.

END
The following explains yesterday’s events perfectly.  Schiff states that either Powell is lying or he is a complete idiot. I think he is both.
(zerohedge)

Peter Schiff: “Either [Powell] Is Lying, Or He’s A Complete Idiot”

Via SchiffGold.com,

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in over a decade Wednesday. And Jerome Powell left the door open for future cuts.

Peter Schiff broke it all down on his most recent podcast, saying this is the first interest rate cut on the short road to zero.

During his press conference after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Power tried to straddle the fence. In the process, he ended up mixing his messages.

Powell called the 25 basis point cut a “mid-cycle adjustment.” When asked about future cuts, the Fed chair left that door propped open, saying “As the committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”

About midway through the Q&A session, Powell said the Fed wasn’t embarking on a long rate-cutting cycle like it would during a recession. But then he backtracked and sounded a little more dovish later on.

Let me be clear: what I said was it’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts. I didn’t say it’s just one or anything like that. When you think about rate-cutting cycles, they go on for a long time and the committee’s not seeing that.”

Of course, when the Fed pivoted to the “Powell Pause” last December, most analysts weren’t expecting a rate cut down the road. And here we are.

Peter Schiff predicted all of this. During his podcast, Peter called this the first step on the road to zero. And he said it was going to be a pretty short road.

Powell claimed the Fed was cutting rates as an insurance policy to ensure problems in the global economy don’t spill over into a healthy US economy. Peter called this a load of BS.

Either he is lying, or he’s a complete idiot. And I tend to believe its the former. And the reason he is lying is because if he told the truth, he would scare the sh** out of the markets.”

Peter reiterated something he’s been saying all along — a 25-basis point cut isn’t going to cut it. To underscore this point, he noted that the Dow fell over 300 points after the announcement. But Peter said Powell was right when he said this wasn’t the beginning of a long easing cycle. That’s because it won’t take long to get to zero.

It doesn’t have a lot of ammunition to cut rates, and so I think we’ll get to zero relatively quickly. And we’ll stay there until the Fed completely loses control of this thing.”

Keep in mind the last two times the Fed started cutting rates a recession quickly followed.

Peter said he thinks the stock market will continue to trend downward until the Fed significantly softens the position that it took yesterday.

He reiterated that it’s clear Powell is lying about this just being a temporary measure in a good economy.

The fact that there was so much contradictory statements made by Powell during this conference, I mean, it’s obvious that he’s lying, he’s making up excuses because he’s trying to pretend the economy is great, but he’s cutting rates anyway. So, he’s trying to defend, really, a ridiculous story. He contradicts himself. If you’re being honest, it’s easy not to contradict yourself because you just tell the truth. But when you’re lying, you weave a very tangled web. One lie contradicts another lie because you can’t keep your story straight. And that is the position he was in.”

Listen to the whole podcast for more analysis on the Fed’s latest move and what may lie ahead.

end

USA exports to China plunge to 2004 lows.  This will hurt the uSA farmer big time

(zerohedge)

US Farmer Crisis: China’s US Soybean Purchases Plunge To 2004 Lows

A new report from Bloomberg shows US soybean exports to China collapsed in 1H19 to the lowest level in more than a decade.

The US exported 614,806 tons of soybeans to China in June, according to US customs data. That brought 1H19 China imports of soybeans from the US to 5.9 million tons, the lowest level since 2004, according to Bloomberg calculations.

US farmers, who harvest soybeans from September to November, have been some of the hardest hit in the trade waras Chinese buyers shift to Latin American markets for agricultural products.

Senior US officials met in China on Wednesday with the hopes of resolving trade disputes that could result in more agriculture trade between the two countries.

But the US trade delegation broke off discussions with its Chinese counterparts on early Wednesday morning and is already on its way back to Washington, a sign that no new progress was made, and that China is not likely to buy significant amounts of US agriculture products this summer.

According to Bloomberg, US delegates including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer wrapped up talks with Vice Premier Liu He and their other Chinese counterparts on Wednesday afternoon at the Xijiao State Guest Hotel in Shanghai, according to a pool report.

The latest round of talks took place against a jarring backdrop following a fresh outburst by Trump on Twitter, who, as delegates gathered Tuesday, slammed China’s unwillingness to buy American agricultural products and said it continues to “rip off” the US.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

..My team is negotiating with them now, but they always change the deal in the end to their benefit. They should probably wait out our Election to see if we get one of the Democrat stiffs like Sleepy Joe. Then they could make a GREAT deal, like in past 30 years, and continue

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…to ripoff the USA, even bigger and better than ever before. The problem with them waiting, however, is that if & when I win, the deal that they get will be much tougher than what we are negotiating now…or no deal at all. We have all the cards, our past leaders never got it!

What’s worse, the talks were supposed to focus on “goodwill” gestures, like the agricultural purchases promised by China, and the rollback of sanctions on Huawei promised by Trump. This could be devastating for US farmers as China is going to continue sourcing soybeans from Latin America, not the US, in 2H19.

Since the start of the trade war, most of China’s soybeans have come from Brazil. Last year, the bulk of the country’s 80 million ton export went to China, replacing market share that was once controlled by US farmers.

The Global Times on Wednesday morning said if Washington still holds the illusion that Beijing will somehow cave in and compromise on issues concerning sovereignty, “then no deal is fine.”

The Trump administration prepared for a no-deal week with the unveiling of a $16 billion farm bailout several weeks ago, that is expected to greatly benefit the wealthiest of US farmers while not providing adequate financial support for smaller ones.

With the election coming up, there’s a high probability since the trade talks collapsed Wednesday that China could abandon US agriculture markets for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, which could certainly lead to increased financial hardships for President Trump’s base, the American farmer, located across the Midwest US.

end
this will hurt a little:  Sears employees life insurance benefits will be whittled down from 5,000 to 15,000 dollars down to just 135.
Sears is in bankruptcy.
(zerohedge)

Sears Employees’ Life Insurance Payments Could Amount To Just $135 Per Person

People who retired after spending decades working for department store Sears came together early in 2019 to protest the company’s plan to terminate their life insurance as part of its bankruptcy, according to Bloomberg.

And it seems as though they have good reason to. Benefits that once would have been worth as much as tens of thousands of dollars have been priced at just $135 by the Sears estate in a proposal to its former employees. 

It’s another blow in a long line of disasters for Sears employees who have worked for – or are still working for – the company through its transition into bankruptcy. Sears filed for bankruptcy last year and sold its stores and most of its assets to the Eddie Lampert-owned ESL Investments, Inc. in the beginning of this year.

The Sears estate, responsible for settling old debts, was left behind.

 

The plan for retirees provided policies to about 29,000 former workers with benefits between $5,000 and $14,000. A smaller group of senior executives had policies with death benefits that ranged from $356,000 and $2.7 million.

The new proposal would terminate the plan altogether and award employees an unsecured claim of $5,000. But due to the estate’s limited resources, unsecured claims would get about 2.3% to 2.7% of what they are owed in payouts. This would be between $115 to $135. 

Ronald Olbrysh, chairman of the National Association of Retired Sears Employees said:

The new plan is totally unacceptable to the retirees. Many Sears retirees aren’t able to obtain new life insurance policies now because they’re too old. It’s totally unfair, what Sears is attempting to do.”

Retirees who died after the plan was terminated but before the proposal was approved would receive an administrative claim of $5,000. Administrative claims get higher priority for payment, which means these plans would likely pay out the full amount.

The estate did away with the retiree plan in March and offered participants the choice to pay into a new individual life insurance policy at their own cost. Lawyers for the retirees objected to the termination and the court approved the formation of a committee to represent the interests of retired workers in June.

A Sears estate lawyer in court last month said that the estate tried to make Lampert’s ESL Investments assume the retiree benefits, but that they were unsuccessful. 

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Sara Carter comments that the new Dept of Justice actions against FBI/CIA involvement in the Trump election scandal is heading overseas.

(Sara Carter)

Nunes: FBI/CIA’s Actions Against Trump Campaign Overseas Must Be Investigated

Authored By Sara Carter via SaraACarter.com (emphasis ours)

The top Republican with the House Intelligence Committee Rep. Devin Nunes told SaraACarter.com there is insurmountable evidence of the FBI’s malfeasance regarding the bureau’s probe into President Trump’s 2016 campaign and Russia, but what must be investigated is the FBI’s actions overseas into the campaign.

Those questions will also naturally involve the CIA and any relationship the clandestine agency had with the bureau during the Russia probe, Nunes said.

 

What has been revealed during the course of nearly three years of investigations by the Intelligence Committee and others, is that the FBI had informants spying on the campaign. The most damning information was that the FBI had specifically targeted volunteers with the Trump campaign: Carter Page, George Papadopolous, as well as others who traveled outside the United States. Once they were overseas, the FBI had continuing operations and received information from informants to build an investigation into the Trump campaign and Russia.

The details of what actually took place and when the investigation by the bureau actually began, however, remain murky. Nunes said there needs to be a thorough investigation into the role of the FBI and CIA regarding the Trump probe.

There are so many unanswered questions about what happened in Cambridge, where numerous people were making strange unexplained attempts to contact Trump associates,”Nunes told SaraACarter.com. “We already know the FBI committed a lot of abuses in this investigation, and we want to discover whether more were being committed overseas.”

Nunes is referring to the University of Cambridge in London, ‘Cambridge Intelligence Seminar,’ where employees made successful attempts in contacting members with the  Trump campaign in 2016, including Carter and Papadopolous.

The CIA And FBI

Nunes also spoke with Maria Bartiromo Sunday on Fox News saying that former CIA Director John Brennan still needs to answer questions. He said it’s important for DOJ investigators to know whether it was the FBI or CIA, or both, that lined up confidential sources to contact the Trump campaign.

“Well, as you know, we have jurisdiction over both FBI and CIA and what they do overseas,” Nunes told Bartiromo on Sunday Morning Futures. “We have lots of information about FBI people going overseas and doing things, we don’t really have any information from CIA.”

So far, they’ve really come clean. I would say the only one who has questions to answer is John Brennan, because we now know that John Brennan briefed Harry Reid on the dossier in August 2016. At the same time he never briefed me or Paul Ryan who was the speaker of the House at the time.”

Nunes has also been pushing for the public release of currently declassified documents turned over by President Trump to the DOJ’s Attorney General William Barr. Those documents are expected to reveal details of the FBI’s investigation into the Trump campaign. In particular information regarding Page and Papadopolous, which sources say will expose that the FBI withheld exculpatory information from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court.

According to several sources some of those documents could come as early as this week or next. But Barr has received fierce pushback from some in the intelligence community, including Brennan. After Trump ordered the intelligence community to cooperate with Barr the New York Times reported that if Barr declassifies the documents he would reveal one of the agencies most trusted assets in Russia.

According to the New York Times the asset is “close to [Vladimir] Putin” and someone who gave the CIA “information about [Putin’s] involvement” in U.S. election interference.

However, according to sources that spoke with SaraACarter.com, who have knowledge of the documents, Barr would not reveal any information that would harm U.S. national security.

The Professors: Mifsud And Halper

Durham’s investigation is also looking into Professor Joseph Mifsud, who made direct contact with Papadopolous. Mifsud shared information with the young campaign volunteer suggesting the Kremlin had the missing Hillary Clinton emails during the  2016 campaign. Mifsud’s attorney has told The Hill’s John Solomon, that his client was a “longtime cooperator of western intel.” This claim is huge because it is thoroughly missing from former Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report and begs the question: Why would a source connected to western intelligence be giving a Trump campaign official information from Russian’s suggesting they had Clinton’s emails?

Mueller’s report contends that Papadopolous contact with Mifsud was the reason the bureau initiated the investigation into the Trump campaign at the end of July, 2016. The bureau dubbed the investigation ‘Crossfire Hurricane,’ as the New York Times first reported.

Further, there are questions regarding Mifsud’s contacts with others at Link University in Rome and the London Center of International Law Practice (LCILP). Both of these policy institutes have ties to western intelligence.

The task of investigating the actions of the bureau and CIA overseas DOJ appointed prosecutor John Durham, the U.S. attorney in Connecticut, and simultaneously Inspector General Michael Horowitz will not be easy, “as they navigate the various agencies and contend with classified information and sources,” said one former U.S. intelligence official, familiar with Russia.

Durham Questioning CIA Officers

Durham is also believed to be questioning senior CIA personnel, according to a recent New York Times report.   According to The Times Durham’s inquiry is directly related to the Russia investigation and “focused partly on the intelligence agencies’ most explosive conclusion about the 2016 election: that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia intervened to benefit Donald J. Trump.”

More importantly, the inquiry shows the expansive nature of the Justice Department’s probe into the FBI and it’s handling of the case.

Durham’s inquiry reveals that the DOJ is investigating every aspect of the Russia Trump probe and the connection the FBI had with the agency.

There is no possible way that Brennan didn’t know what was going on during the FBI’s investigation, particularly when agents were working with sources overseas in London and Italy,” the official said. “The agency would have been well aware of the issue, particularly because it involved a presidential candidate.”

Another major player in the DOJ’s investigation is former Cambridge Professor Stefan Halper, who was outed as an informant for the bureau, as previously reported. Halper was the director of American studies in the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge. There, he taught classes and worked on research papers for Chatham House in London, the Center for Strategic and International Studies in D.C., and the U.S. Naval War College. He also has a close working relationship with former MI6 Director Sir Richard Dearlove. Dearlove was the director from 1999 to 2004. His extended family was also tightly connected to the agency.

Grassley’s Inquiry Into The DOD Payments To Halper

Currently, Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley is investigating financing that was provided by the Department of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment to Halper. He sent a letter early this month asking DOD Acting Secretary Mark Esper for more information regarding contracts awarded to Halper.

Grassely, R- Iowa, stated that the information be provided no later than July 25. He also requested a full in person briefing with his committee staff on all of Halper’s contracts with the DoD.

Grassley’s committee asked for the information after an audit was released by the DoD’s Inspector General’s showed that there was failure to conduct appropriate oversight of contracts awarded under the DOD. Halper had long career in the U.S. government under several GOP administrations. His connections to the CIA and FBI are extensive and he had been awarded multiple contracts with the DOD totaling $411,000 by Washington Headquarters Services on Sept. 26, 2016, for a contract that ran until this March, 2018, according to USASpending.gov.

 

end

The Dept of Justice could have easily prosecuted Comey on the Memo leak..however he has more serious problems on his plate..abuses on the FISA court application and he will surely feel the criminal sting on that one

(zerohedge)

Comey Avoids DOJ Prosecution On Memo Leak; FISA Abuse Still On The Table

Former FBI Director James Comey will avoid prosecution after illegally leaking personal memos in the hopes of instigating the special counsel’s investigation into the 2016 US election, as reported yesterday by The Hill‘s John Solomon and confirmed today by Fox News.

According to Solomon, DOJ Inspector General (IG) Michael Horowitz referred Comey for possible prosecution under laws governing the handling of classified information, however Attorney General William Barr has declined to prosecute – as the DOJ does not believe they have enough evidence of Comey’s intent to violate the law.

“Everyone at the DOJ involved in the decision said it wasn’t a close call,” an official told Fox News. “They all thought this could not be prosecuted.”

 

That said, it’s important to note that this decision was the result of a ‘carve-out’ investigation separate of the IG probe on FISA abuse.

The Conservative Treehouselays out the situation:

This is NOT the Inspector General Michael Horowitz report on DOJ and FBI FISA abuse.

This is a carve-out.

From the outset it was reported and confirmed that U.S. Attorney John Huber was assigned to assist Inspector General Michael Horowitz.  Huber’s job was to stand-by in case the IG carved out a particular concern, discovered during his investigation, that might involve criminal conduct.

Earlier this week Matt Whitaker said: “John Huber is reviewing anything related to Comey’s memos and the like.

Put the two data points together and what you realize is that during the OIG review of potential DOJ and FBI FISA abuse… IG Horowitz investigated the Comey Memo’s and then passed that specific issue along to John Huber for DOJ review.

The IG criminal referral for the James Comey memo leaking was a carve-out sent to U.S. Attorney John Huber.

This is not the inspector general report on DOJ and FBI FISA abuse.  This is an IG report carved out of the larger investigation. Conservative Treehouse

In short, we will first see an IG report just covering Comey, with a more comprehensive report to follow on FISA abuse.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

While the world awaited the FOMC Communique and Powell’s presser, the US-China trade talks collapsed after only a half day of negotiations; the ADP Employment Change for July showed 156k job growth and the MNI July Chicago PMI was a disastrous 44.4; 51 was expected.

ESUs commenced a decline after the Chicago PMI was released.  By the start of the second hour of US trading, ESUs were negative for the day.  Wiser guys were looking to liquidate into any buying ahead of the FOMC Communique.  The ugly Chicago PMI induced traders to liquidate earlier than most expected.

China Says U.S. Trade Talks to Continue With September Meeting

China and the U.S. plan to meet again in September to extend trade talks, as the latest round of negotiations in Shanghai ended with signs the sides discussed Chinese purchases of American farm products — a key demand of President Donald Trump…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-31/china-u-s-resume-trade-talks-amid-trump-s-rip-off-accusation?srnd=premium

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 156,000 Jobs in July

http://adpemploymentreport.com/2019/July/NER/NER-July-2019.aspx?cid=soc_twt_ADPRI_NER_July2019

The standard rally into the European close appeared. It ended ten minutes before the FOMC Communique.  The urge and need to sell on any Fed rate cut was palpable.

When the Fed cut by the expected 25bps, ESUs tumbled.  The Fed lowered its rate on excess reserves to 2.10% from 2.35% and will end quantitative tightening (balance sheet drawdown) today (2 months early).

KC Fed President George and Boston Fed President Rosengren dissented.  They wanted NO rate cut.

Changes in July 31, 2019 FOMC Communique from June 19, 2109 Communique

Key changes: Household spendingappears to have picked up from earlier in the year grew strongly in the second quarter… Market based measures of compensation inflation havedeclinedmoved up but remain low…  https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1156617073151418368/photo/1

The ESUs plunged; but they recovered their entire loss on the hope that Powell would offer bulls a few biscuits in his press conference.  Minutes before Powell’s presser commenced, ESUs retreated.

Powell Presser Highlights

  • Economy has favorable outlook; rate cut to protect from downside risks and to promote faster inflation toward 2% goal; the rate cut was a “mid-cycle adjustment in policy
  • A somewhat lower policy is warranted
  • Wages are rising, particularly for low-paying jobs; Expects US job growth to slow
  • After nearly boiling over, trade tensions are now at a simmer
  • Foreign growth has disappointed, especially in manufacturing
  • Global deflationary pressures persist
  • I’ve turned control of the Fed over to Donald Trump – We’re just kidding!

Because Powell debunked the notion that a new rate cut cycle had begun, ESUs tumbled.  The S&P 500 Index cascaded to 2958.08.

Dow decline steepens, now down 400 points after Powell hints rate cut not the start of a trend   https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/stock-market-wall-street-poised-for-first-fed-rate-cut-in-a-decade.html

Seven minutes before the final hour of July trading commenced, performance gaming appeared.  The S&P 500 Index rallied 37 handles (1.25%) in ten minutes.  Powell abetted the rally when he asserted during the Q&A, “I didn’t say it’s just one rate cut.”Powell added, “Don’t assume we’ll never hike rates again.”

1.5 hours after the close, @realDonaldTrump: What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve was that this was the beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate-cutting cycle which would keep pace with China, The European Union and other countries around the world.  As usual, Powell let us downbut at least he is ending quantitative tightening, which shouldn’t have started in the first place – no inflation. We are winning anyway, but I am certainly not getting much help from the Federal Reserve!

If Dems weren’t so inclined to socialism and had a plausible economic plan, they could eviscerate Trump for his record debt and the harassment of the Fed to paper over his profligate spending.

BBG’s @lisaabramowicz1: Now traders are pricing in 2.7 rate cuts by the end of next year, from more than 4 cuts before the Fed announcement.

@NorthmanTrader: The only history we have of the Fed starting a new rate cutting cycle with stock market capitalization north of 137% [of GDP] is 2001 and 2007.  In both cases a recession still unfolded and it took at least 500bp in rate cuts to end it.

@RyanDetrick: Only 7 times since WWII has the S&P 500 been up more than 20% at the end of July. (Could happen this year). August has been down 5 of those years and the last time it happened (1997), the S&P 500 was down 5.7% in August.  Hmm.

Americans will now be able to import prescription drugs from Canada

The Trump administration said Wednesday it will set up a system allowing Americans to legally and safely import lower-cost prescription drugs from Canada for the first time, reversing years of opposition from federal health authorities amid a public outcry over high prices for life-sustaining medications…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/07/31/prescription-drugs-canada-donald-trump-alex-azar-set-up-plan/1876633001/

OAN’s @jennfranconews: The Treasury Department slaps financial sanctions on Iran’s foreign minister, as part of the Trump administration’s escalating campaign of pressure against the Islamic Republic.

Today is the start of August. Usually traders get long for expected buying near or on the close to start the month.  However, The Street is upset with Powell for not cutting rates by 50bps.  With earnings season drawing to a close early next week and seasonal upward bias ending on the close, stocks will now face headwinds.  More importantly, if the July NFP tomorrow is better than expected, the odds of a September rate cut will fall.

The S&P 500 Index had a negative Outside Day on Wednesday, the sign of a trend reversal.  Trender is now on a daily sell signal – barely – for the S&P 500 Index.  Unless there is a rebound today, the sell signal will be confirmed.  2958, Wednesday’ low, on the S&P 500 Index is now very important support.

@Rasmussen_Poll: In A Reversal From Democrats, 49% of Black Likely Voters Don’t Think Trump Voters Are Racist.

 

Marianne Williamson most searched for candidate during Democratic debate [Tuesday night]

Williamson, a celebrity spiritual adviser and long-shot presidential candidate, also saw one of the most significant search spikes during last month’s debates…  http://hill.cm/bJp7zJb

 

After the Dem debate on Tuesday night, CNN’s John King lamented that Dem presidential candidates are farther to the left than anytime in “our lifetime” and “way to the left” of Obama; “way, way, way, way, way to the left of Bill Clinton.”   https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1156403445009715200

 

CNN’s coverage of Democratic debates was a total ratings flop – just 8.2 million viewers… fell 46 percent from the 15.3 million audience that tuned into NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo’s debate coverage on June 26…https://nypost.com/2019/07/31/cnns-coverage-of-democratic-debates-was-a-total-ratings-flop/

 

The pundit consensus is that Kamala Harris, who was dropping in the polls before last night’s debate, had a very bad showing.

 

The Dem debate last night was going so bad for Dems that Sen. Cory Booker admonished fellow candidates by asserting, “The person who is enjoying this debate the most right now is Donald Trump.”

 

The WSJ’s @KimStrassel: Nowhere is the left more nuts than on climate. Biden, the “reasonable” person on stage, says “no more fossil fuels” in his presidency. Think about this, folks. No oil, gas, coal. No diesel trucks, airplanes, fighter jets, chainsaws. This the America you want?

 

Katy Perry, more stars attend Google summit on climate change in private jets, mega yachts

President Barack Obama, Prince Harry, Leonardo DiCaprio…[Lear Jet liberal hypocrisy at new highs]

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/google-summit-celebrities-climate-change

 

Due to their attacks on DJT, Dems are inviting scrutiny into their activities.

 

Tlaib Donor Has Been Deceased for 10 Years

Tlaib received $2,500 from Michigan businessman who died in 2009

https://freebeacon.com/politics/tlaib-donor-has-been-dead-for-10-years/

 

Call for New 9/11 Investigation: New York Area Fire Commissioners Make History

Whereas, the overwhelming evidence presented in said petition demonstrates beyond any doubt that pre-planted explosives and/or incendiaries — not just airplanes and the ensuing fires — caused the destruction of the three World Trade Center buildings, killing the vast majority of the victims who perished that day…   https://www.globalresearch.ca/new-york-area-fire-commissioners-make-history-call-new-911-investigation/5684982

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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