AUGUST 14/GOLD UP $13.60 TO $1517.20//SILVER UP 27 CENTS TO $17.26 AFTER CONTINUAL FRUITLESS ATTACKS BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS// HUGE DATA DUMP BY THE CHINESE AND ALL RESULTS ARE VERY BAD INCLUDING A POOR FACTORY OUTPUT//PROTESTS CONTINUE IN HONG KONG BUT THE AIRPORT OPENS/RHETORIC BETWEEN CHINA AND THE USA INTENSIFIES: CHINA WILL NOT GIVE IN AND BUY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN THIS INTERIM 3 MONTH PERIOD//GERMANY’S ECONOMY SHRUNK IN 2ND Q////MACY’S CRASHES TO A 9 YEAR LOW//GHISLAINE MAXWELL FOUND//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

GOLD:$1517.20  UP 13.60(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver: $17.26 UP 27 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1516.00

 

silver:  $17.21

 

I wrote the following yesterday to you:

“the volumes at the comex today were huge and it is quite possible that many comex paper longs just might take on the crooks by taking delivery. Today gold and silver fought  back after being pummeled.  The bankers used their signal of whacking the shares yesterday as they have now lost silver as a tool..it is just too hot for them to handle.  You will see that there was considerable banker short covering in silver.”
I do not think I was far off.

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 0/0

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ (0.00 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  4452 NOTICES FOR 445,200 OZ  (13.8475 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

73 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 365,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1808 for   9,040,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10,522 DOWN 369 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10,197 DOWN 703

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD  SIZED 917 CONTRACTS FROM 232,922 UP TO 233,839… DESPITE THE 9 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT 3091, AND DEC: 100  AND THEN ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3191 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3191 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3191 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 15.955 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 9 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

9.58   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS..AND WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

19,630 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,630 CONTRACTS) OR 98.150 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1963 CONTRACTS OR 9.82 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  98.15 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 14.02% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1410.655   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 917, DESPITE THE 9 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3191 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED: 4108 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 3161 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 917  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.99 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.169 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 167% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 73 NOTICE(S) FOR 365,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

AND NOW WE ARE CLOSER TO THAT ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,169

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

 

 

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 9.580 MILLION OZ
  2. CLOSE TO THE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 244,169 CONTRACTS (OR 1.228 BILLION OZ/, THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN UNBELIEVABLE SIZED 10,432 CONTRACTS, TO 593,962 ACCOMPANYING THE  $2.60 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY (THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FINAL NUMBER AND PRELIMINARY WAS AN ASTOUNDING 7,000 PLUS CONTRACTS)// /THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION OPERATION HAS NOW COMMENCED  ONLY FOR SILVER WITH MUCH ACCOMPLISHED TODAY….. THE LIQUIDATION( AND ACCUMULATION) PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD HAS NOW STOPPED FOR THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 18,609 CONTRACTS:

AUGUST 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, OCTOBER: 3000 DEC>  15,580 CONTRACTS, FEB: 29 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 593,962,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8,147 CONTRACTS: 10,432 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 18,609 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 8,147 CONTRACTS OR 814,700 OZ OR 25.43 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A TINY LOSS OF $2.60 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE,(A RAID) WE  HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 25.43  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.THERE WAS NO APPRECIABLE SHORT COVERING IN THE GOLD COMEX ARENA AS ALL OF THE LONGS DEMANDING METAL JUST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 124,842 CONTRACTS OR 12,484,200 oz OR 388.31 TONNES (10 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 12,482 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 388.31 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 388.31/3550 x 100% TONNES =10.93% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3899.54  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 10,432 DESPITE THE SMALL  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($2.60)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 18,609 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 18,609 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 8,147 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

18,609 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 10,432 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 25.43 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.60 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED WITH SPREADING ACCUMULATION OF SILVER OI CONTRACTS. ALL SPREADING ACTIVITY IN GOLD STOPPED DURING THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $13.60 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

AND YESTERDAY’S FAILED RAID WHERE GOLD WAS DONE ONLY $2.60:

A MONSTROUS: 11.11 PAPER TONNE WITHDRAWAL

THIS PAPER GOLD WAS USED IN THE ATTACK YESTERDAY.

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY:

A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ/

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 917 CONTRACTS from 232,922 UP TO 233,839 AND CLOSER TO A COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORDED HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET EXCEPT TODAY AS WE HAD A RISING PRICE..OUR SHORT DERIVATIVE BANKERS ARE NOW IN DEEP TROUBLE AS THEY ARE TERRIBLY OFFSIDE AND NEED ASSISTANCE FROM THE GOVERNMENT (FED) TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY COLLATERAL TO CARRY THAT SHORT POSITION…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST, WITH CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY,; ALL SPREADING ACTIVITY STOPPED IN GOLD FOR THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH.

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 3091, DEC: 100 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3191 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1514  CONTRACTS TO THE 3191 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 4705 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 23.525 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST AT 9.580 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 3191 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.66 POINTS OR 0.42%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 20.98 POINTS OR 0.08%   /The Nikkei closed UP 199.69 POINTS OR 0.98%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .44%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0175 /Oil UP TO 55.96 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.06 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0175 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0396 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)Last night China released its big data dump and we were suppose to get good numbers.  China surprised everyone with the weakest China factory output in 17 years. Other big misses was retail sales, and fixed investment.

(zerohedge)

ii)China mocks Trump as weak in his delay of tariffs in electronics and other goods.  China believes that Trump is losing the war.  Trump will be looking for Xi to OK imports of USA agricultural products.  It looks like Xi is willing to wait out the next 15 months hoping for a new President.Trump does not want to be portrayed as weak so expect this USA goodwill gesture to last only a few days

(zerohedge)

iii)Protests continue even though Hong Kong opened after two days of chaos.  China has their on alert on the border

(zerohedge)

iv)China again pours cold water on Trump’s tariff delay and if he thinks that China will resume agricultural purchases he is whistling Dixie

(zerohedge)

vi)Seems that Trump is right: A full length Wall Street Journal report on political spying by Huawei in Africa

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Air cargo performance slumps all across European ports

(zerohedge)

ii)GERMANY

Germany is without a doubt into a recession as its economy shrunk in Q2

(zerohedge)

III) UK

A new poll suggests that citizens are demanding the PM must deliver Brexit by any means and if they must shut down parliament so be it..
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

This morning’s assessment on the economic environment which hounds the globe by Michael Every of Rabobank

a must read..

(Michael Every/Rabobank)

7. OIL ISSUES

China/Iran

A very important commentary concerning China’s development of 3 major oil/gas properties inside Iran.  If the USA is set to thwart any of these projects, China is wet to use its nuclear option:  the selling off of all of its uSA treasuries. I personally do not think that it would be in China’s interest to do so as the USA dollar is intertwined in many of their project financings.

(Simon Watkins/OilPrice.com)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA

This may hurt.. India’s car market has just crashed. Last month was the worst in 18 years.  It seems that the world is running out of liquidity at the same time…

(zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Dave Kranzler talks about the resiliency of gold and silver.  Before we would never see gold and silver rebound once an attack has been formulated by the crooks.  That has changed

(Dave Kranzler/IRD)

ii)The public were not aware of the glitch in stock market trading yesterday

(courtesy Pam and Russ Martens/WallStreet on Parade)

iii)The meaning of negative rates courtesy of Craig Hemke

(courtesy Craig |Hemke)

iv)Balderdash!!

Greenspan sees no barriers to negative yields>>>????

(Bloomberg/GATA)

v)Very important..  a must read

The key point that we have been pounding the table on: there is no more room for additional debt and the world has no appetite to pay interest which explains why 16 trillion in debt/52 trillion have negative yields

Gold understands the meaning of zero  even if central bank clowns and analysts don’t.

(Mish Sheldock)

vi)for those of you who use cryptos to avoid tax, it looks like the IRS is coming after you. Many received letters from the IRS demanding an accounting and compelling them to pay back taxes. If they do not respond, then the IRS will come after them

Good reason for Bitcoin et al to fall today. Guys and gals: stick to gold and silver
(zerohedge)

vii)China escalates capital controls as they are extremely worried about a flight of capital. This should stop much of the flow from west to east. China adds 10 tonnes to its official hoard but that came from its own mining production

(zerohedge)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

 

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

i)The global economy is now in big trouble:  the 2s vs 10 yield curve inverts for the first time in 12 years…and the 30 yr bond yield drops to 2.01..an all time low

(zerohedge)

ii))DOW PLUNGES 450 POINTS..right off the bat
(zerohedge)

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

i)the biggy: 2 and 10 just inverted..its meaning..

(zerohedge)

ii)Now the Dow is down 700 points

(zerohedge)

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)First time in a decade, the Postal Service in the uSA has pkg volume drop

(zerohedge)

ii)My wife’s favourite shop, Macy’s crashes to a 9 year low after they slashed outlook

(zerohedge)

iii)This is to be expected:  Boeing 737 Max delivery planes crash by 38%,,it will get worse.

(zero hedge)

iv)Trump: the economist? He bashes Jay Powell and remarks o the crazy inverted yield curve.

How is Powell going to get out of this one/
(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Guards were asleep during Epstein’s alleged suicide.  They then falsified records to cover it up

(zerohedge)

b)This is fascinating.. Ghislaine Maxwell has been found.  She is living with her boyfriend Tech CEO Dr  Scott Borgerson. They live in a multi million dollar oceanfront mansion. Now things get very interesting

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,432 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 593,962 ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS  OF $2.60 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 18,609 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTS OCT: 3000 CONTRACTS;DEC: 15,580; FEB 29 CONTRACTS   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  18,609 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 8,177 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 18,609 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A STRONG SIZED 10,432 COMEX CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE GOLD PRICE. WE EXPERIENCED ZERO SHORT COVERING IN GOLD AS A MAJOR AMOUNT OF LONGS JUST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS TRYING THEIR LUCK ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND LOOKING FOR METAL.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  8,177 CONTRACTS OR 817,700 OZ OR 25.43 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 2067 CONTRACTS as we LOST 116 contract.  We had 4 notices filed yesterday so we LOST  112 contracts or 11,200 oz of gold that will NOT stand for delivery AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THESE GUYS HAVE MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND WILL TRY THEIR LACK OVER THERE.

The next non active month is September and here the OI FELL by 175 contracts UP TO 3660.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI ROSE by 1834 contracts UP to 498,556.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  NIL OZ. (0.000 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 917 CONTRACTS FROM 232,922 UP TO 233,839  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196, CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY. WE HAD ZERO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 181 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 29 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 49 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A FULL 20 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 100,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 7073 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 116,677 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 38 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 177.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 7327 CONTRACTS UP TO 82,954.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 73 notice(s) filed for 365,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 456,306  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  656,563  contracts/huge but day of the raid

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 14/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
192.90 oz
Scotia
6 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

65,909.55 oz

 

2050 kilobars

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 400 OZ
(0.0000 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2067 contracts
(206700 oz)
6.429 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4452 notices
445200 OZ
13.8475 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 2 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into HSBC: 65,909.55  oz

2050 kilobars

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 65,909.55  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/  TODAY: a good amount  arrived but of the kilobar variety

 

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Scotia: 192.90 oz

6 kilobars

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 192.90  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4452) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (2067 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 651,900 OZ OR 20.276 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (4452 x 100 oz)  + (2067)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 651,900 oz standing OR 20.276 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We LOST 112  contracts or an additional 11,200 oz will NOT stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus.

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 16.013 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 20.276  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING//

 

total registered or dealer gold:  514,823.353 oz or  16.013 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,850,468.880 oz 244.18 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 34 MONTHS 113 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

 

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 14 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 20,703.886 oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
954.10 oz
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
73
CONTRACT(S)
(365,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
108 contracts
 540,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1808 contracts

9,040,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

i)into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

 

 

ii) Into Delaware: 954.10 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  954.10  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  17,684.480 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 3019.400 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 20,709.886  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 9976.000 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account of CNT and this landed into the customer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  92.301 million

total dealer + customer silver:  312.063 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 73 contract(s) FOR 365,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1808 x 5,000 oz = 9,040,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. 181) and the number of notices served upon today 73 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1808 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (181)- number of notices served upon today (73)x 5000 oz equals 9,580,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.  

 

WE GAINED A STRONG 20 CONTRACTS  AS THE DEALERS BYPASSED THOSE STANDING TRYING TO GRAB WHATEVER SILVER THEY CAN. WE THUS HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 20 CONTRACTS OR 100,000 ADDITIONAL OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THESE GUYS REFUSED AN OFFER FROM THE BANKERS TO ROLL TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AND THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS FOR NOT ACCEPTING THIS CROOKED CONTRACT.BOTH COMEX GOLD AND SILVER ARE UNDER ATTACK FOR PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS THE TRUE DEFINITION OF QUEUE JUMPING BY THE BANKERS AS THEY SATISFY THEIR URGENT NEEDS OVER THE NEEDS OF INVESTORS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 49 notice(s) filed for 245,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  120,514 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 223,154 CONTRACTS.. huge/the day of the raid.

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 223,154 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1,115 million  OZ 159.39% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.08% ((AUGUST 14/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.75% to NAV (AUGUST 14/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -/68%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.03 TRADING 14.50/DISCOUNT 3.50

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.50: A HUGE INVENTORY WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LEAVES THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 818.14 TONNES

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

AUGUST 14/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 847.77 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 642 TRADING DAYS: 98.74 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 542- TRADING DAYS: A NET 67.80 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 26.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:  A HUGE 1.03 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER LEAVES THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 357.183 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

 

AUGUST 14/2019:

 

Inventory 376.177 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.05/ and libor 6 month duration 2.03

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .02

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.90%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.97

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.07

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold and Silver Prices Resilient Over $1500 and $17 Despite Sharp Selling On COMEX Yesterday

* Gold is 0.8% higher to $15,14/oz and silver is 1.24% higher to $17.20/oz

* Gold has consolidated just over the $1,500 level finding support after mor poor economic data from China and Germany raised fears of a global recession

* CME raised gold margins from $4k to $4.5k or 12.5% yesterday

Silver in USD – 3 Days

Gold sheds 2% on signs of U.S.-China trade thaw

Gold drops from a more than 6-year high as U.S. delays some tariffs on China, schedules further trade talks

The remarkable resiliency of gold and silver

Trump: Chinese Government is moving troops to the Border with Hong Kong

Dont tell the public there was a frightening ‘glitch’ in stock markets yesterday

Greenspan sees no barriers to negative yields on Treasuries

U.S. Mortgage Debt Hits Record – $9.406 trillion, Eclipsing 2008 Peak

Just 6 cents on the euro for Cyprus bail-in haircut victims

Listen and Watch Jim Rogers Interview Here

Gold Prices via LBMA (AM/ PM Fix – USD, GBP & EUR)

13-Aug-19 1527.20 1498.40, 1265.90 1240.38 & 1363.48 1338.67
12-Aug-19 1501.95 1504.70, 1244.82 1243.63 & 1343.64 1341.74
09-Aug-19 1503.50 1497.70, 1242.19 1240.99 & 1342.02 1338.05
08-Aug-19 1497.40 1495.75, 1230.26 1234.14 & 1335.08 1335.70
07-Aug-19 1487.65 1506.05, 1225.82 1239.33 & 1330.11 1341.44
06-Aug-19 1461.85 1465.25, 1199.59 1201.21 & 1304.85 1311.11
05-Aug-19 1457.45 1465.25, 1199.92 1203.85 & 1307.92 1310.23
02-Aug-19 1436.05 1441.75, 1184.17 1187.28 & 1294.02 1298.44
01-Aug-19 1406.40 1406.80, 1161.12 1161.74 & 1273.35 1273.29
31-Jul-19 1430.55 1427.55, 1175.48 1167.45 & 1283.20 1281.37

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

 

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Exclusive-Offer-Swiss-Flag-B-1024x576.jpg
Buy, Transfer & Store Gold and Silver in Zurich, Switzerland – Six Months Free Storage

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Dave Kranzler talks about the resiliency of gold and silver.  Before we would never see gold and silver rebound once an attack has been formulated by the crooks.  That has changed

(Dave Kranzler/IRD)

Dave Kranzler: The remarkable resiliency of gold and silver

 Section: 

2p ET Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold and silver are showing remarkable resiliency against the usual attacks in the futures markets by governments, central banks, and bullion banks, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics writes today.

Kranzler adds: “If by a miracle a ‘trade agreement’ is reached between China and the United States, the underlying economic fundamentals globally have already deteriorated into a recession. And it’s getting worse. It has nothing to do with tariffs. For the primary cause, research the amount of debt outstanding now vs. 2008.”

Kranzler’s analysis is headlined “The Remarkable Resiliency of Gold and Silver” and it’s posted at IRD here:

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-remarkable-resiliency-of-gold-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

The public were not aware of the glitch in stock market trading yesterday

(courtesy Pam and Russ Martens/WallStreet on Parade)

Pam and Russ Martens: Shhh! Don’t tell the public there was a frightening ‘glitch’ in stock markets yesterday

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Monday, August 12, 2019

Where did the U.S. stock market actually close yesterday? It’s pretty much an open question. To give you an idea of just how bad the so-called “glitch” was yesterday, Bill Griffeth, the co-anchor of CNBC’s “Nightly Business Report,” had to deliver this warning to his viewers before reporting the prices of the closing stock market indexes yesterday.

“By the way, toward the close, there was a technical issue with trading computers. It’s not clear if all the volume was reported or if some of the prices of the indexes were affected. You might see different numbers elsewhere but these were the numbers we had of the close today.”

Griffeth’s quaint phrase “technical issue with trading computers,” is not accurate. It was not a problem with trading computers but rather the failure of the Consolidated Tape System to receive executed trade reports from the various stock exchanges that must timely report their trades to the Consolidated Tape. …

Let’s just say, hypothetically, that if someone wanted to stop hedge funds from shorting the market and driving the prices of stocks lower, one way to do that is to put a blindfold on short traders as to where the market actually is trading and to render it impossible to gauge how much sell-side volume there is going to be heading into the close.

The disruption in the Consolidated Tape System did precisely that. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/08/shhh-dont-tell-the-public-there-wa…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

The meaning of negative rates courtesy of Craig Hemke

(courtesy Craig |Hemke)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The yield ‘curve’ knows

 Section: 

9:19p ET Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Negative interest rates are in force around the world and are only going to get more negative, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes at Sprott Money, adding that this will virtually require higher prices for the monetary metals, since when conventional financial instruments pay no interest, there is no reason not to own gold.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “The Yield ‘Curve’ Knows” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-yield-curve-knows-craig-hemke-13.ht…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Balderdash!!

Greenspan sees no barriers to negative yields>>>????

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Greenspan sees no barriers to negative yields on Treasuries

 Section: 

By Liz McCormick
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says he wouldn’t be surprised if U.S. bond yields turn negative. And if they do, it’s not that big of a deal.

“There is international arbitrage going on in the bond market that is helping drive long-term Treasury yields lower,” Greenspan, who led the central bank from 1987 to 2006, said in a phone interview. “There is no barrier for U.S. Treasury yields going below zero. Zero has no meaning, beside being a certain level.”

… 

Negative yields are confounding traditional fixed-income investors. Lenders traditionally were compensated for parting with their money, while borrowers paid to use that cash for some purpose. That’s no longer the case in many markets outside the U.S., with more investors coming to grips with the changing dynamics of global markets over the last few years. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-13/greenspan-sees-no-bar…

* * *

END

iii) Other physical stories:

Very important..  a must read

The key point that we have been pounding the table on: there is no more room for additional debt and the world has no appetite to pay interest which explains why 16 trillion in debt/52 trillion have negative yields

Gold understands the meaning of zero  even if central bank clowns and analysts don’t.

(Mish Sheldock)

“Zero Has No Meaning” Says Greenspan: We Disagree, So Does Gold

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Negative yields? Who cares says Greenspan. It’s meaningless.

Negative Yields “No Big Deal”

Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan sees No Barriers to Prevent Negative Treasury Yields.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says he wouldn’t be surprised if U.S. bond yields turn negative. And if they do, it’s not that big of a deal.

“There is international arbitrage going on in the bond market that is helping drive long-term Treasury yields lower,” Greenspan, who led the central bank from 1987 to 2006, said in a phone interview. “There is no barrier for U.S. Treasury yields going below zero. Zero has no meaning, beside being a certain level.”

Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co., detailed earlier this month a view that there’s been a change in the fundamental economic theory of time preference that helps explain why people are buying debt with negative yields. He postulated that extended life expectancy and an aging population have caused people to value future consumption more than current spending.

Greenspan, 93, said he views Fels’s thesis as very plausible and also a reason why more debt has a yield below zero. He doesn’t think it will last forever.

Flashback August 4, 2017

Please consider Bubblicious Debate: Greenspan Says “Bond Bubble About to Break”, No Stock Market Bubble

In a CNBC interview, the longtime central bank chief said the prolonged period of low interest rates is about to end and, with it, a bull market in fixed income that has lasted more than three decades.

“The current level of interest rates is abnormally low and there’s only one direction in which they can go, and when they start they will be rather rapid,” Greenspan said on “Squawk Box.”

Flashback July 31, 2017

Alan Greenspan told Bloomberg TV : “By any measure, real long-term interest rates are much too low and therefore unsustainable. When they move higher they are likely to move reasonably fast. We are experiencing a bubble, not in stock prices but in bond prices. This is not discounted in the marketplace.”

Now it’s “No Big Deal”.

Alan Greenspan on “Irrational Exuberance”

On December 5, 1996 the Maestro warned of “Irrational Exuberance“.

Click on the link for an amusing video.

By the year 2000 Alan Greenspan embraced the “productivity miracle” of technology and no longer saw any bubbles.

That’s precisely when the technology bust started.

Negative Time Preference

As noted above, Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co, suggests “there’s been a change in the fundamental economic theory of time preference that helps explain why people are buying debt with negative yields.

Time preference can never be negative. Never.

To believe in negative time preference is to believe things such as “It’s better to have 90 cents ten years from now than a dollar today”.

Yields are negative only because central banks manipulated yields negative. They would never be negative on their own accord.

Investors buy negative yielding debt firmly convinced central banks will manipulate yields even more negative.

Zero Does Have Meaning

Alan Greenspan is wrong. Zero is very meaningful with negative being even more meaningful.

It means central banks have hit a brick wall. They cannot cram any more debt into the system. There is no tolerance for paying interest.

That’s the meaning, and the evidence is overwhelming.

  1. More Currency Wars: Swiss Central Bank Poised to Cut Interest Rate to -1.0%
  2. Inverted Negative Yields in Germany and Negative Rate Mortgages.
  3. Fed Trapped in a Rate-Cutting Box: It’s the Debt Stupid

As Gold Blasts Through $1500 the implied message is that central banks are out of control.

Gold understands the meaning of zero  even if central bank clowns and analysts don’t.

end
for those of you who use cryptos to avoid tax, it looks like the IRS is coming after you. Many received letters from the IRS demanding an accounting and compelling them to pay back taxes. If they do not respond, then the IRS will come after them
Good reason for Bitcoin et al to fall today. Guys and gals: stick to gold and silver
(zerohedge)

Cryptos Just Collapsed As IRS Deadline Looms

A month ago, the IRS sent letters to thousands of crypto investors  to clarify crypto tax filing requirements and, in certain cases, compel them to pay back taxes.

As CoinTelegraph reports, those who already received letter 6173, titled“Reporting Virtual Currency Transactions” on July 16 now have less than a week to reply to the IRS. The most serious of the trio of letters that were disseminated (sent alongside letters 6174 and 6174-A), 6173 requires immediate action.

If recipients do not respond to this letter in time, their tax accounts will be audited by the IRS. Recipients are required to respond to this letter within 30 days of the date listed on the letter and requires all crypto transactions between the years of 2013 to 2017 be reported. Reports must include transactions between wallets and exchanges.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

And some have suggested the sudden dump this morning across all cryptos could be related to this tax date.

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin battered back toward $10,000…

Source: Bloomberg

And this is happening as Hong Kong, Argentina, and Venezuela see local (off-exchange) prices for Bitcoin trading at notable premiums.

endChina escalates capital controls as they are extremely worried about a flight of capital. This should stop much of the flow from west to east. China adds 10 tonnes to its official hoard but that came from its own mining production(zerohedge)

China Restricts Private Gold Imports As It Adds 10 More Tons To Its Own Hoard

China continues to escalate its capital controls with headlines today from Reuters that Chinese authorities have curbed private gold imports since May as the trade war escalated in a move that could be aimed at curbing outflows of dollars and bolstering its yuan.

According to sources, China’s gold imports are down 300-500 tonnes, with around $15-$25 billion, since May.

As Reuters details, the bulk of China’s imports – from places such as Switzerland, Australia and South Africa and usually paid for in dollars – are conducted by a group of local and international banks given monthly import quotas by the Chinese central bank. But quotas have been curtailed or not granted at all for several months, seven sources in the bullion industry in London, Hong Kong, Singapore and China said.

“There are virtually no import quotas now issued in China,” one source said.

In June and July “next to nothing” was imported by banks, they said.

It’s “unprecedented,” said an industry source in Asia.

“Gold going in is money going out,” said one of the people, adding that Chinese buyers tend buy dollars to pay for metal.

“It’s all linked to what’s going on in terms of how the central bank is handling the currency,” the person said.

Rather notably, after optically pegging the yuan to gold for the last few years, it appears the gold import curbs started as China lost control of its currency…

Source: Bloomberg

China has also restricted gold import quotas before – most recently in 2016 after the yuan weakened sharply, bullion bankers said.

This could not be more ironic  as SchiffGold.com reports,China bought gold for the eighth straight month in July, adding another 10 tons to its rapidly growing hoard.

The recent purchases boosted the People’s Bank of China’s gold reserves to 62.26 million ounces – about 1,945 tons.  China has added about 94 tons of gold to its stash over the past eight months.

Source: Bloomberg

The Chinese continue to add gold to their reserves in an effort to reduce their exposure to the dollar. As one analyst told Bloomberg“It is important for the country to diversify away from the US dollar. Over the long run, even relatively small-scale gold purchases add up and help to meet this objective.”

But China’s gold purchases, along with the buying spree in other countries, including Russia, also aim toward a broader geopolitical objective. They want to undermine dollar hegemony and reduce the United States’ ability to weaponize the dollar as a foreign policy tool. As we reported earlier this month, even the mainstream is beginning to pick up on this narrative.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. economist Howie Lee told Bloomberg last month that he expects China to continue buying gold as it seeks to become a bigger player on the world stage.

Aside from its attempt to diversify its holdings of dollars, owning more gold reserves is also an important strategy in China’s rise as a superpower.”

As the Chinese buy gold, they have also been divesting themselves of US Treasurys. China dumped Treasuries for the third straight month in May, pushing their holdings to the lowest level in two years. Data for June should be released in the next few days.

SP Angel analysts said this move toward de-dollarization in China and other countries could boost the price of gold.

The recent increase in gold prices may be set to continue on the strength of a global push for de-dollarization…

Countries increasingly hostile to the US and dollar hegemony, such as Russia and China, are searching for alternatives to the dollar including gold.”

In December 2018, the People’s Bank of China announced the first addition of gold to its reserves since 2016. The Chinese have a history of going long periods without officially adding gold to its stores and then suddenly revealing a large increase in its reserves. In 2009, the People’s Bank of China stopped reporting its gold holdings. Then in June 2015, the Chinese central bank suddenly announced its gold hoard had grown by 57%.

For a little more than a year, the PBOC regularly announced additions to its gold reserves. Chinese gold holdings rose another 185 tons over the next 16 months before the bank suddenly went silent again.

During the last gold-buying spree, China was pushing for the inclusion of the yuan in the International Monetary Fund’s benchmark currency basket.

Many analysts believe China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015many people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Given the political dynamics and the ongoing trade war, it seems unlikely the Chinese suddenly stopped increasing their gold reserves in 2016.

China isn’t alone in buying gold. Central bank buying helped boost overall gold demand 8% in the second quarter, according to the World Gold Council. Globally, central banks bought 224.4 tons of gold in Q2. That brought the total on the year to 374.1 tons. China and Russia have been the biggest buyers.

During an interview on RT Boom Bust, Peter Schiff called this a “global gold rush on the part of central banks” in preparation for a dollar crisis.

The days that the dollar is a reserve currency are numbered and the smart central banks are trying to buy as much gold as they can before the number is up.”

*  *  *

So the message is clear from CCP: Do as we say, not as we do!

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0175/ PAST  7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0396   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 11.66 POINTS OR 0.42%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 20.98 POINTS OR 0.08%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 199.69 POINTS OR 0.98%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.79/Euro FALLS TO 1.1173

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.22/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.96 and Brent: 60.96

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.65%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.56% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.15%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.21: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.05

3k Gold at $1514.60 silver at: 17.17   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 44/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.38

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.93 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9713 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0859 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.65%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.59% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.03%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.5970..

US Futures, European Stocks Tumble Amid “Doom And Gloom” Signals Of Looming Recession

For the third day in a row, global markets started off the session with some bullish enthusiasm – this time on hopes of a trade deal with China following Trump’s delay to some key tariffs – only to see it all fade, as global stocks were flushed down the red drain thanks to dismal economic news first from China, whose key economic indicators all missed overnight and factory output tumbled to a 17 year low, then from Germany where GDP contracted for the 2nd time in 4 quarters  sending the country to the verge of recession, and culminating with the inversion of both the UK and US 2s10s yield curve as the 30Y Treasury yield dropped to a record low, sliding below the effective fed funds rate for the first time ever.

US equity futures slumped to session lows, dropping alongside European stocks as weak data from two of the world’s biggest economies overshadowed an apparent de-escalation in the trade war. Treasuries and European bonds rallied, with key parts of both the U.S. and U.K. yield curves inverting.

European stocks fell on poor industrial production data and as Germany’s economy went into reverse, reviving fears of global recession and tempering a rally for equities after Washington delayed tariffs on some Chinese imports. Germany shrank 0.1% in the second quarter as the trade war and weak demand dragged on German manufacturers. The euro zone as a whole reported gross domestic product grew just 0.2% in the same quarter.

The Euro Stoxx 600 fell 0.4%, with markets in London, Frankfurt and Paris losing from 0.2% to 0.6%, tracking U.S. futures lower, as all but two of the 19 industry groups decline. Carmakers, banks and miners are the worst performers, while food-and-beverage shares temper the benchmark’s decline. Cyclical shares are retracing some of Tuesday’s gains after data from China and Germany flag a worsening economic outlook.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, led by technology firms, as easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China spurred a relief rally around the world. Almost all markets in the region were up, with India and Japan leading gains. The Topix climbed 0.9%, supported by electronic and telecommunication firms, as Japanese traders looked beyond the worst earnings in three years and bet on a turnaround. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.4%, with Kweichow Moutai advancing to a new record, even though China’s economy slowed more than expected in July, posting the weakest industrial output growth since 2002. The 4.8% growth was the lowest in 17 years.

The German figures, along with data showing the slowest growth for Chinese industrial output in 17 years stoking recession worries, knocked the wind out the sails for stocks.

Sure enough, this quickly manifested itself in the bond market, with the U.K. yield curve inverting for the first time since the financial crisis and the pound strengthened after inflation unexpectedly rose above the Bank of England’s 2% target in July. The US Treasury yield curve also inverted as the spread between US two-year and 10-year Treasury yields – a closely watched metric for signs of a slowdown and a famous recession predictor – finally turned negative after 12 years.

“The bond market is saying central banks are behind the curve,” said Marc Ostwald, global strategist at ADM Investor Services in London. “It’s all doom and gloom on the global economy.”

Earlier in the session, investors had cheered earlier when U.S. President Donald Trump pushed back a Sept. 1 deadline for new tariffs on remaining Chinese imports. The S&P 500 which had fallen 1% on Monday, rose 1.5% on Tuesday, sending Asian stocks outside Japan up 0.6%. Benchmarks in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Tokyo all mirrored the surge in U.S. stocks. But the momentum ebbed in Europe, as optimism faded that Trump’s move meant tensions were easing and Germany’s slowdown showed the damage already done by the trade war.

“The trade war and the dispute between U.S. and China has already had an impact – especially when you look at countries most sensitive to global trade like Germany and even Italy,” said Christophe Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities in Paris.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s airport resumed normal operations after a chaotic night of protest in which demonstrators beat and detained two suspected infiltrators and Trump warned of Chinese troops massing on the border.

In FX, the safe haven Japanese yen gained 0.3% to 106.42 per dollar as the Chinese data signaled that any resolution to the trade war was a long way off. Mirroring that view, the offshore Chinese yuan fell 0.4% against the dollar to 7.0337, erasing gains made the day before and remaining weaker than the 7 to the dollar it reached last week. The Australian dollar fell after the China economic data, including retail sales and industrial output, missed estimates. Swedish inflation data comes in stronger than forecast yet the krona fails to sustain knee-jerk reaction gains. The pound gained after U.K. inflation unexpectedly accelerated above the Bank of England’s target.

The yuan rose after China’s central bank set the daily fixing at a level stronger than the market expected for a fifth straight day. The People’s Bank of China strengthened the fix to 7.0312 per dollar Wednesday, snapping a nine-day streak of weakening, after Donald Trump decided to delay the imposition of new tariffs on a wide variety of Chinese goods until December. The 10% tariff postponement on largely consumer products including toys and laptops came after U.S. and China senior trade officials spoke by phone. Trump said the conversation was “productive” and that the delay was made “so it won’t be relevant to the Christmas shopping season”.

In kneejerk response, the offshore yuan rose as much as 1.6%, most on record, on the news. “The fixing came in much stronger than expected probably because China needs to stabilize the yuan and prevent sustained depreciation as the trade talks resume,” said Scotiabank currency strategist Gao Qi, adding that the onshore currency will likely trade between 6.9 and 7.1 per dollar if no further major news emerges on the negotiations. If trade tensions escalate, there is a 20% probability that the PBOC could push the yuan in the direction of 7.5 per greenback, BNP Paribas analyst Chi Lo wrote in a note.

In commodity markets, oil prices fell after the Chinese data from China and a rise in U.S. crude inventories, erasing some of the gains made after Trump’s tariff delay. Brent crude was down 54 cents, or 0.9%, at $60.76 a barrel after rising 4.7% on Tuesday, its biggest percentage gain since December.

Expected data include mortgage applications. Canada Goose, Macy’s, Agilent, Canopy Growth and Cisco are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 2,918.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 371.86
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 151.02
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 486.93
  • Nikkei up 1% to 20,655.13
  • Topix up 0.9% to 1,499.50
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.08% to 25,302.28
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,808.92
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 37,403.73
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,595.90
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 1,938.37
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to -0.623%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1184
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 8.3 bps to 1.265%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to 0.19%
  • Brent futures down 0.9% to $60.76/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,500.29
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.75

Top Overnight News

  • President Donald Trump bowed to pressure from U.S. businesses and concerns over the economic fallout of his trade war with China, delaying the imposition of new tariffs on a wide variety of consumer products including toys and laptops until December
  • The U.K. is gearing up for a Brexit-driven election that its Prime Minister can’t call. Under 2011 legislation, a national ballot can be called only if two-thirds of lawmakers opt for one — or if the government loses a confidence vote
  • Germany’s economy shrank in the second quarter, piling pressure on Chancellor Angela Merkel to unleash fiscal stimulus as manufacturers reel from a U.S.-China trade war
  • China’s economy slowed more than expected in July, worsening growth prospects as trade tensions escalate and additional U.S. tariffs loom.
  • President Donald Trump said reports from U.S. intelligence agencies show the Chinese government is moving troops to its border with Hong Kong. “Everyone should be calm and safe!” Trump said in a tweet on Tuesday, without providing details about when he received the information
  • Italian lawmakers summoned Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to appear before the senate on Aug. 20 as parliament responds to the political chaos that has gripped the euro-area’s third largest economy
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s staff talk about an imminent general election as though it were a fact, and on Tuesday, a Conservative politician accidentally published a draft email about his “GE2019 team”
  • Norway’s central bank Governor Oystein Olsen faces a tough call on whether to stick to a plan to raise again and go against a global wave of easing that was kicked off by the U.S. Federal Reserve in July. Three of the six biggest Nordic banks expect Norges Bank to signal a September tightening at a rate decision on Thursday
  • Chinese officials are sticking to their plan to visit Washington in September for face-to-face trade meetings, people familiar with the matter said, signaling that talks remain on track for now despite an abrupt escalation in tariff threats this month

Asian equity markets traded higher across the board with global risk appetite spurred by a de-escalation in the US-China trade war after the US announced to delay the 10% tariffs on some items from China until December 15th, although stocks are off the day’s best levels on disappointing Chinese data in which Industrial Production grew at the slowest pace in 17 years. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) gained from the open but with upside in Australia capped by weakness in financials after NAB reported tepid profit growth for Q3 and as gold miners suffered from a pullback in the precious metal, while Tokyo sentiment was boosted by encouraging data after Machinery Orders showed the largest M/M increase on record. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) were buoyed at the open after the tariff delay announcement which President Trump noted was for the Christmas season in case it had an impact on shopping and suggested that he had a very productive call with China, while a continued PBoC liquidity effort and firmer CNY fix added to the optimism before weaker than expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales data from China saw stocks give back some of the gains. 10yr JGBs are lower after the US tariff delay triggered safe haven outflows and amid a continued lack of BoJ buying with the central bank only in the market today for Treasury Bills.

Top US News

  • Indonesian Bond Sale Draws Fewer Bids as Global Risks Weigh
  • Modi Has Limited Options to Boost Economy in Locked Down Kashmir
  • China July Industrial Output Growth Weakens to 17-Year Low

European equities are lower across the board [Eurostoxx 50 -1.3%] as the global risk appetite seen yesterday and overnight waned in earlier European trade. Major bourses are posting broad-based losses although Italy’s FTSE MIB (-1.9%) is underperforming, as the ongoing political angst sees almost all Italian stocks in the red. Meanwhile, DAX 30 (-1.4%) breached the key 11,600 support level on which the index turned-around during the May rout. Sectors are all in negative territory, although defensive sectors are somewhat more resilient, i.e. utilities, consumer staples and healthcare. In terms of individual movers, Commerzbank (-4.0%) fell to a new record low of EUR 5/shr as the German banking rout deepens following a Germany GDP Q/Q contraction and as the bank tracks German yields. Meanwhile, Balfour Beatty (+9.0%) and RWE (+1.9%) rose to the top of the Stoxx 600 after earnings, with the latter raising its interim dividend.

Top European News

  • Police Arrest 22-Year-Old Suspect in Danish Tax Agency Bombing
  • Italy Bonds Fire Warning to Salvini Over Cost of Leadership Bid
  • Sports Direct Plunges as Auditor Leaves Without a Successor
  • Mining Stocks Lag in Europe as Data Cast Doubt on Global Growth

In FX, the traditional safe-haven currencies and their commodity compatriot Gold have regained some composure after yesterday’s sharp/abrupt fall from grace on the resumption of US-China trade talks and decision to defer/waiver certain items from the list of Chinese imports that were due for 10% tariffs on September 1. Subsequent comments from President Trump indicate that the concessions are not in response to any progress in negotiations or reciprocity from Beijing, but an effort to avoid US consumers feeling the pinch over the festive period. Meanwhile, latest Chinese data has also dampened spirits with ip and retail sales both falling short of expectations, though the PBoC has stalled the measured Yuan depreciation and Usd/Cny ended on-shore trade below the official fix. Usd/Jpy back down around 106.00 and Usd/Chf is pivoting 0.9730 as Xau/Usd returns to justy above 1500/oz mark amidst faltering risk sentiment.

  • EUR/GBP/SEK/NOK – The single currency and Sterling are both firmer vs the Dollar even though the DXY is holding the bulk of its post-US CPI gains within a 97.847-660 range, and data has helped to an extent given Eurozone Q2 GDP matching or slightly surpassing forecasts, while headline UK inflation was firmer than consensus along with the core. However, Eur/Usd and Cable remain top-heavy ahead of 1.1200 and 1.2100, with the former still unable to breach Fib resistance at 1.1220 convincingly or on a closing basis, and also faced with decent option expiry interest today at 1.1215 (1.3 bn). Similarly, the Swedish Krona only got a fleeting boost from CPIF beats vs market medians and the Riksbank’s own projection, as inflated food prices were partly if not largely to blame, while another retreat in crude prices is weighing on its Norwegian peer, as Eur/Sek and Eur/Nok hover closer to the tops of 10.7145-6455 and 9.9715-9085 bands respectively.
  • AUD/NZD/CAD – The aforementioned tempered exuberance surrounding US-China relations and disappointing data have taken their toll of the Aussie in particular, with Aud/Usd recoiling from 0.6800+ recovery peaks towards 0.6750 again, Nzd/Usd back under 0.6450 and Usd/Cad rebounding from sub-1.3200 to just shy of 1.3250. Ahead, Australian jobs data will be crucial for the RBA, and at the current juncture it appears that a hefty 0.6790 expiry in 1.2 bn won’t have a bearing on direction.

In commodities, WTI and Brent prices have held onto the bulk of their trade-driven gains in which the benchmarks soared around USD 3/bbl after the USTR decided to delay tariffs on some Chinese goods until December 15th. Sentiment drove yesterday’s gains, although ultimately, the demand outlook remains unchanged unless material progress can be made in dialogue, i.e. if the nations overcome sticking points which broke down talks last time. The relief rally had begun to peter out in Asia-Pac and European trade, with some aid from a surprise build in API stockpiles (+3.7mln vs. Exp. -2.8mln). WTI residing around its 50 DMAs at 56.08/bbl whilst its Brent counterpart remains around 60.50/bbl. PVM notes that if Brent fails to hold its 13 DMA (60.55/bbl), then it’ll likely cause a 5-day gap narrowing dip to around the 5 DMA at 59.29/bbl. Traders will now be looking ahead to the weekly DoE data for confirmation of the API numbers. ING notes that last week’s release saw a surprise build driven mainly by a fall in crude oil exports. “The relative strength in WTI vs. Brent, means we could see another week of poor exports”, analysts say. Elsewhere, gold has made some gains above the 1500/oz mark after finding a base at 1480/oz yesterday from the trade-driven unwind of safe-haven positions. Meanwhile, copper prices are on the backfoot as yesterday’s optimism wanes in EU trade and disappointing Chinese IP prints exacerbated the downside, with some additional pressure after exports of the red metal from Peruvian port of Matarani have now resumed following a three-week suspension due to protests.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 5.3%
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.9%;
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.05%, prior -0.7%

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

Just when you thought we were getting away with a rare period of calm from trade headlines, yesterday afternoon’s announcement that the Trump administration was to delay 10% tariffs on some Chinese products until mid-December quickly put an end to any hope of that. Risk-on was back in force, however the inherent problem for markets with these trade headlines is the predictability of how unpredictable they are, both with regards to timing and substance so it makes it incredibly difficult to take short term views while things remain so fluid.

That didn’t bother risk assets though, with the S&P 500 gaining +1.50% to more than retrace Monday’s decline. The benchmark index has now traded +/-1% in five of the last seven sessions, the longest such streak since December. Tech shares outperformed, with the NASDAQ, FANG, and Philly semiconductor indexes rallying +1.95%, +2.53%, and +2.95%, respectively, as several broad categories of high-tech imports from China were in the basket of goods which will not be tariffed on 1 September. Apple (+4.23%), Qualcomm (+3.41%), and Micron (+4.84%) paced gains. In Europe, the STOXX 600 reversed losses of as much as -0.87% to ultimately close +0.54% higher.

The moves in rates were sharp as well, with two-year treasuries retracing yesterday’s rally to end +8.3bps higher. The rise in 10-year yields was more muted, up only +5.9bps. Both were affected by the risk-on sentiment and flows out of safe havens, but the front-end also had to deal with the strong CPI inflation print (more below). As a result, the market is now pricing 57bps of Fed cuts this year, from 66bps as of Monday. Those reduced fed odds contributed to a flatter yield curve, with the 2y10y spread down -2.5bps to just 3.3bps, having touched a low of 0.8bps in the New York afternoon. As we’ve highlighted many time the 2y10y is our favourite recession indicator and as it flirts with inversion we’ve become more concerned about the downside risks.

In other markets, oil was boosted by the trade de-escalation, with WTI advancing +3.95% to $57.10/bbl. The US cash HY energy index rallied -16bps, helping the overall HY index to tighten -13bps, The VIX index fell -3.6pts to 17.5, which is actually relatively elevated from its 6-month average of 15.0. Meanwhile, EM currencies gained +0.48%, despite another bloodbath for the Argentine peso, which weakened a further -5.00% versus the dollar. The biggest EM mover was the offshore yuan, which gained +1.29% during US trading on trade optimism.

As for the actual details of the tariff announcement, the most substantive news was the decision to delay tariffs on around $150bn of imports until at least 15 December. Around $100bn of imports will face the 10% tariff effective on 1 September. That leaves several tens of billions of goods unaccounted for, though they could just be the result of rounding, other exemptions, or errors. The USTR’s press release said that some items would be removed for “health, safety, national security and other factors.” As for the goods which will see delayed tariffs, the list includes cell phones, laptops, video games, toys, and computer monitors, which explains the tech outperformance mentioned above. President Trump later confirmed that he decided to delay the tariffs to avoid impacting the Christmas shopping season, which may be taken as a tacit admission that tariffs result in higher prices for US consumers, as our economists have argued. Fittingly, “art for nativity scenes” was also among the items be delayed beyond the Christmas season.

The trade headlines came not long after a much more risk unfriendly CPI report in the US. Indeed the July core CPI reading of +0.3% mom was ahead of consensus for +0.2% and in doing so it pushed up the annual reading to +2.2% yoy and thus matching the highs from January. Amazingly, that is the first time since 2001 that we’ve had two rounded readings of at least +0.3% mom for the core. The 3m annualized rate is also now at +2.83% which is the second highest during the current cycle. On top of that, there were no obvious outliers in the details which is another indication of the broadness in strength in the data. So, however you cut and slice it this was a strong reading. That being said the moves in rates were quickly overtaken by the tariff story headlines.

Overnight, Asian markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+0.63%), Hang Seng (+0.55%), Shanghai Comp (+0.75%) and Kospi (+0.75%) all up. That being said, most markets are off their intraday highs following weak Chinese data overnight (more on that below). As for FX, the CNY is trading at 7.0234 (+0.28%) while other Asian currencies are also trading up with the South Korean won (+0.79%), Indian rupee (+0.75%) and Indonesian rupiah (+0.70%) all making gains. Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are flat.

Just on the China data, industrial production in July was confirmed at 4.8% yoy which was well below expectations for 6.0% yoy and also the weakest reading since 2002 while retail sales also came in at +7.6% yoy (vs. +8.6% expected). There was a smaller miss for fixed asset investment which came in one tenth lower than expectations at 5.7% yoy while the surveyed jobless rate rose two tenths versus last month to 5.3% and thus matching the recent highs from February. So, a weak slew of data and one which begs the question how long is China willing to tolerate weaker growth and higher joblessness. Needless to say that the downside risks to growth are now on the rise.

In other news, the Telegraph is reporting that House of Commons Speaker John Bercow said that he will refuse to allow PM Johnson to suspend U.K. Parliament to secure Brexit. He said, “We cannot have a situation in which Parliament is shut down – we are a democratic society. And Parliament will be heard and nobody is going to get away as far as I am concerned with stopping that happening.” Meanwhile, in Italy lawmakers have summoned PM Conte to appear before the Senate on August 20, with Bloomberg suggesting that this could lead to a confidence vote in the upper house, or possibly even his resignation of further delays.

The other highlight of the data yesterday and which ultimately got overshadowed was a shocking August ZEW survey in Germany. The -44.1 expectations reading was not only well below consensus for -28.0 but marked a monthly decline of -19.6pts which was the most since July 2016 and second most since 2012. Staying with Germany, the final July CPI revisions threw up no surprises with the +0.4% mom reading unrevised versus the flash. The data in the UK was also broadly in line with earnings printing at +3.9% 3m/yoy while the unemployment nudged up one-tenth to 3.9%. The other data release worth flagging was the July NFIB small business optimism reading in the US which rose 1.4pts to 104.7 (vs. 104.0 expected).

To the day ahead now, where the main focus of the data this morning will be Germany’s Q2 GDP release where expectations are for a -0.1% qoq print. We’ll also get Q2 employment data in France, and July CPI readings in France and the UK. We’ll then round off the data in Europe with the preliminary Q2 GDP print for the Euro Area. In the US this afternoon it’s a bit quieter for data with the July import price index reading the only data of note.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.66 POINTS OR 0.42%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 20.98 POINTS OR 0.08%   /The Nikkei closed UP 199.69 POINTS OR 0.98%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .44%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0175 /Oil UP TO 55.96 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.06 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0175 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0396 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Last night China released its big data dump and we were suppose to get good numbers.  China surprised everyone with the weakest China factory output in 17 years. Other big misses was retail sales, and fixed investment.

(zerohedge)

China Factory Output Weakest In 17 Years, Everything Missed

With currency turmoil and social unrest, China’s economic assault tonight was supposed be the great equalizer – confirming that a few trillion here or there and everything looks awesome and happy, and not a tiny bit angry (and that the Americans are not to blame for everything).

Ahead of today’s data, broadly speaking, macro data globally has been weak, but in China, recent credit growth numbers slumped and steel production slowed, suggesting graver concerns. And so here it is…

  • China Industrial Production BIG MISS+4.8% (+6.0% exp, +6.3% prior)
  • China Retail Sales BIG MISS +7.6% (+8.6% exp, +9.8% prior)
  • China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.7% (+5.8% exp, +5.8% prior)
  • China Property Investment MISS +10.6% (+10.9% prior)
  • China Surveyed Jobless Rate MISS +5.3% (+6.0% exp, +6.3% prior

Now all that is left is to figure out if bad news is good news, or not…

Source: Bloomberg

It might seem that President Trump is ‘winning’ this race for now.

Some notables include:

  • Car sales weighed on retail
  • Jobless rise is significant
  • And Factory Output slowed to its weakest since 2002.

Source: Bloomberg

The struggling autos sector seems to be the main brake on the Chinese economy:

  • Auto manufacturing (by industry) down 4.4% y/y
  • Motor vehicles (by product) down 11.5% y/y
  • and for retail, car sales dropped 2.6% y/y

(The principle of “housing is for living in, not for speculation” was mentioned at the politburo meeting again last month.)

Finally, for a few minutes/seconds the world spiked after China set the yuan fix slightly stronger; we are not so impressed, nor is the yuan or US equity futures…

And stocks and bond yields tumbling…

Source: Bloomberg

So with inflation spiking, currency crashing, social-unrest; will the PBOC flood the nation with cash to ensure happiness at October’s CCP Anniversary?

It’s just that the sugar high from the injection is getting shorter…

Source: Bloomberg

Chen Yuan, former deputy governor of PBOC warned that “the trade war is evolving into a financial war and a currency war.”

And the yuan is getting weaker since this data…

Source: Bloomberg

As goes China, so goes the world.

end

China mocks Trump as weak in his delay of tariffs in electronics and other goods.  China believes that Trump is losing the war.  Trump will be looking for Xi to OK imports of USA agricultural products.  It looks like Xi is willing to wait out the next 15 months hoping for a new President.

Trump does not want to be portrayed as weak so expect this USA goodwill gesture to last only a few days

(zerohedge)

China Mocks Trump Tariff Delay As Proof He Is Losing The Trade War

On Tuesday Trump pulled off another signature twitter shock, when just after noon, the President bowed to pressure from U.S. businesses, the stock market and concerns over the economic fallout of his trade war with China, delaying the imposition of new tariffs until December on a majority of consume goods including cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, footwear, clothing, textiles, kitchen utensils, cookware, some watches, musical instruments, paper clips, children’s chairs, bouncers, some sporting goods, fishing tackle, combs, brushes, cigarette lighters and pipes, vacuum flasks and diapers. As we said earlier, it is almost as if Trump realized that a surge in prices of consumer goods which would inevitably have taken place had the tariffs kicked in on Sept 1…

… would have ruined any plans the Fed may have to cut rates further, just as Trump demanded.

zerohedge@zerohedge

Trump figured out he won’t get rate cuts if prices surge

Tuesday’s move to hit the pause button in his fight with China came as senior officials on both sides had their first phone conversation since Trump threatened the tariffs at the beginning of this month. It also cheered markets that had been growing increasingly concerned over the impact of trade tensions on a slowing global economy, and in response, stocks halted a steep two-day slide.

There were some question how Trump picked the list of goods he did to delay tariffs on. According to Axios, “the list of goods from China that won’t be subject to a 10% tariff until Dec. 15 is made up of “products where 75% or more of the 2018 U.S. imports of that product were from China,” according to an email sent to trade groups from the U.S. Trade Representative Office. And while the significance of the 75% cutoff is unclear, it is likely the threshold level for substitute goods beyond which the USTR finds that the risk of an inflationary spike is too high.

So what happens next?

According to Standard Chartered’s Steven Englander, the US will now expect China to reciprocate by buying US agricultural products in the coming weeks. That may very well not happen.But while it is unclear if the lack of a reciprocal “olive branch” would be a dealbreaker for Trump, what is likely is that any widespread shift in sentiment that Trump retreated and waved a white flag of surrender, could very quickly undo the tariff delay as the last thing Trump wants, is to be seen as weak and ineffectual, or his trade war strategy as inefficient, not by his base, and certainly not by his opponent, China.

And yet, in the first reactions to Trump’s announced tariff delay, this is precisely how China is describing today’s event.

As the state-owned, nationalist tabloid Global Times “explains” to the Chinese population, “Chinese experts said the sudden postponing of impending tariffs showed that the maximum pressure tactics of the US are losing their bite when it comes to China.”

As the Chinese tabloid further notes, “these measures are set to greatly reduce the weight of US tariffs, as electronics goods alone account for about $130 billion” and adds that according to “Chinese experts reached by the Global Times on Tuesday night the latest development showed the US maximum pressure tactic is not working on China, but they said it could pave the way for trade talks scheduled for September. However, they were cautious about the potential for any flip-flopping.”

“The US has realized that its maximum pressure strategy to force China back to the negotiating table has not worked as expected. Washington knows that only through talks can the two sides reach a deal,” Wang Jun, chief economist at Zhongyuan Bank, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

The quoted “expert” also said he doubted (correctly) whether the decision would stand, given Washington’s flip-flop approach in trade negotiations: “Trump is looking for a way out. It also shows that both China and the US are highly dependent on each other, and the practice of imposing tariffs does not necessarily bring China to its knees,” said Liang Qi, a professor from Nankai University.

Liang then added that “we also can see that imposing tariffs may harm the interests of the US, making it hard for Trump’s re-election”, suggesting that not only is the tariff delay a tacit ceasefire offer, if not outright surrender, it is also a political gambit that hands over all the leverage to China, which now will have the upper hand to determine the fate of Trump’s re-election depending on how it proceeds with trade negotiations.

Bai Ming, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation said that the tariff increase delay shows the US is not willing to cut off the two countries’ negotiation channels when talks are on the verge of failure.

But Bai warned that it might also be a stalling tactic as the US has found that its extreme pressure on China has not generated the results it had hoped for.

And so, with the Global Times repeating no less than three times that the US tactic of “extreme (or maximum) pressure” has failed, the implication is simple: Trump’s trade war strategy has led him to a dead end, and the result is that China now has the upper hand.

That could be a problem, because even if the Global Times is right in its assessment of the balance of power, all that would take for Trump to change his mind is to be perceived as failing – or worse, weak – in his campaign against China. And that’s precisely what the top power echelon in Beijing is now telegraphing to the population via the state-owned media.

Which leads us to believe that with Navarro still firmly in control of the trade war strategy, it is only a matter of days if not hours, before Trump once again flip flops, just as he did after the G-20 summit where the two nations allegedly reached a “ceasefire” only for it to crash and burn just weeks later.

And so, unless China buys a lot of US agri products in the coming weeks, and we don’t see any specific reason why Xi would want to “bend the knee” to a president Trump who is according to the Chinese media losing the trade war, we fully expect today’s relief rally to reverse quickly as Trump realizes that delay or no delay, a deal with China is simply impossible, as the “trade war” is not about trade at all, but an ever escalating conflict of two civilizations, one which may be resolved on the battlefield, either literally or metaphorically, but will never be decided on a piece of paper.

END

Protests continue even though Hong Kong opened after two days of chaos.  China has their on alert on the border

(zerohedge)

Flights Resume At Hong Kong Airport After 2 Days Of Chaos

After being shut down for two days, Hong Kong International Airport re-opened on Wednesday after thousands of protesters blocked access to the main terminals. All told, five people were arrested and six were hospitalized, authorities said, following the scuffles with police.

Chinese officials condemned protesters as “terrorists” and insisted they had “broken the bottom line o the law, morality and humanity.”

“They committed serious violent crimes under public gaze, which is horrific and chilling. Their behaviors show extreme contempt for the rule of law,” said Xu Luying, a spokeswoman for China’s Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office.

 

Protesters took multiple people hostage whom they suspected of spying for the government. Early Wednesday, protesters detained and tied up a Chinese national who was later identified as a reporter for the Global Times, according to CNN.

Police warned protesters that illegal activities carried out at the airport could draw heavier penalties, including up to life imprisonment.

As flights resumed on Wednesday, airport workers scrambled to remove stains from the floors and graffiti from the walls. Airport staff started checking boarding passes and passports again at the entrance of the departures hall at 2 pm local time.

Timothy Wu, corporate communications assistant manager at the airport, told CNN that only the departures entrances would be monitored for now, only two of which (out of four) remain open.

The airport is one of the busiest transport hubs in Asia: It handles 1,100 passenger and cargo flights per day to around 200 destinations around the world. Authorities have obtained an injunction allowing them to restrain anyone who is “unlawfully and wilfully obstructing or interfering with the proper use of Hong Kong International Airport.”

Protesters have even started issuing apologies for the disruption caused at the airport, especially after some innocent travelers clashed with black-clad protesters. Most of these messages are anonymous.

END

China again pours cold water on Trump’s tariff delay and if he thinks that China will resume agricultural purchases he is whistling Dixie

(zerohedge)

China Pours Cold Water On Trump’s Tariff Delay Olive Branch

First China mocked Trump’s unsolicited tariff delay “olive branch” as evidence that the US is now losing the trade war. Now, the Asian superpower has also made it clear that the proposed delay – which came out of the blue and was not made in exchange for any concessions from Beijing – will be too little, too late, and that if Trump hopes China will resume agricultural imports from the US simply in exchange for the 2.5 month delay in imposing the new Chinese import tariffs, he will be waiting for a long time.

As a reminder, yesterday in his tariff delay takeaway note, Standard Chartered’s Steven Englander said that in his view, “the US will expect China to reciprocate by buying US agricultural products in the coming weeks.”

Alas, as Global Times editor in chief and legendary twitter troll, Hu Xijin made clear moments ago (on twitter, of course), such a reciprocal action won’t be coming, and instead China will be demanding that Trump revert back to the Osaka G-20 “ceasefire” which means scrapping the newly proposed tariffs entirely, for negotiations to resume as “the Chinese side requests that both sides respect the consensus reached at Osaka summit, which is removing all additional tariffs, not delaying some”, to wit:

As far as I know, the Chinese side requests that both sides respect the consensus reached at Osaka summit, which is removing all additional tariffs, not delaying some. I doubt Chinese side will resume large-scale purchase of US farm products under current circumstances.

 

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

As far as I know, the Chinese side requests that both sides respect the consensus reached at Osaka summit, which is removing all additional tariffs, not delaying some. I doubt Chinese side will resume large-scale purchase of US farm products under current circumstances.

View image on Twitter

So if Trump is expecting Beijing – as a token of its appreciation – to resume importing US agri products in coming weeks, he will not only be disappointed, but will most likely respond with even harsher measures at what he sees as China’s “irrational” obstinacy. In other words, it’s only a matter of time before the trade war returns front and center, in its most violent iteration to date.

Not surprisingly, the market seems to agree.

end
Seems that Trump is right: A full length Wall Street Journal report on political spying by Huawei in Africa
(zerohedge)

Huawei Bombshell: Extensive Cyber Spying On Beijing’s Political Opponents In Africa Revealed

A feature full-length WSJ story today confirms Washington’s worst fears over controversial Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei. Though it’s been no secret that Chinese corporations have expanded all over Africa, and that China’s influence has risen dramatically there in the past decade, the WSJ report reveals that Huawei has been spying on political opponents of African leaders backed by Beijing.

The report details how the firm’s technicians have “helped African governments spy on their political opponents, including intercepting their encrypted communications and social media, and using cell data to track their whereabouts,”citing senior security officialscoordinating with Huawei employees in these countries.

 

File photo: Huawei Uganda offices

The bombshell report documented about a half-dozen significant incidents in which Huawei technicians hacked and intercepted communications of African leaders and governments.

 

Both Beijing officials and Huawei executives have denied the report, saying they’ve not authorized any such hacking or cyber eavesdropping assistance to African leaders or governments.

Huawei in a written statement to the Journal asserted the company has “never been engaged in ‘hacking’ activities,” and further said it “rejects completely these unfounded and inaccurate allegations against our business operations.”

“Our internal investigation shows clearly that Huawei and its employees have not been engaged in any of the activities alleged. We have neither the contracts, nor the capabilities, to do so,” Huawei’s rebuttal claimed.

* * *

Among the highlights of the lengthy WSJ report include the following:

Uganda

“In Kampala, Uganda, last year, a group of six intelligence officers struggled to contain a threat to the 33-year regime of President Yoweri Museveni, according to Ugandan senior security officials. A pop star turned political sensation, Bobi Wine, had returned from Washington with U.S. backing for his opposition movement, and Uganda’s cyber-surveillance unit had strict orders to intercept his encrypted communications, using the broad powers of a 2010 law that gives the government the ability ‘to secure its multidimensional interests.'”

“…The Huawei technicians worked for two days and helped us puncture through,’ said one senior officer at the surveillance unit. The Huawei engineers, identified by name in internal police documents reviewed by the Journal, used the Israeli-made spyware to penetrate Mr. Wine’s WhatsApp chat group, named Firebase crew after his band. Authorities scuppered his plans to organize street rallies and arrested the politician and dozens of his supporters.”

Zambia

“In Zambia, according to senior security officials there, Huawei technicians helped the government access the phones and Facebook pages of a team of opposition bloggers running a pro-opposition news site, which had repeatedly criticized President Edgar Lungu. The senior security officials identified by name two Huawei experts based in a cyber-surveillance unit in the offices of Zambia’s telecom regulator who pinpointed the bloggers’ locations and were in constant contact with police units deployed to arrest them in the northwestern city of Solwezi.”

 

Chinese Ambassador to Zambia Li Jie speaking at a Huawei sponsored event in March 2019 in Lusaka. Image source: Chinese Embassy Zambia

Algeria

‘We discussed hacking individuals in the opposition who can threaten national security,’ one of the officials said, adding that Algerians are advanced in that field.

The Ugandan and Algerian forces jointly prepared a classified report, reviewed by the Journal, that calls Algeria’s system ‘Huawei’s intelligent video surveillance system’and says it is ‘an advanced system and provides one of the best surveillance applications.’

Later that month, Mr. Kayihura, the police chief at the time, signed a cooperation agreement with Algeria to have an Algerian team advise on the rollout of Uganda’s Huawei-implemented surveillance program. The project’s lead Algerian adviser was described by the Algerians as a cyber expert trained in Huawei’s headquarters in Shenzhen, according to senior Ugandan officials.”

Crackdown on local opposition bloggers and activists

Huawei technicians helped intercept the communications of opposition bloggers running a news site named Koswe, or “The Rat,” which had repeatedly criticized Mr. Lungu, the two Zambian officials in the Cybercrime Crack Squad said.

The Huawei staff accessed the bloggers’ Facebook pages, where they found their phone numbers, and then used spyware from another company to look into and locate the devices.

On April 18, a team of cyber officials, police intelligence and Zicta experts huddled in Mr. Chanda’s office, on the ground floor of the presidential mansion. Two Huawei technicians opened their laptops to display screens showing live trace routes of several mobile phones linked to the targeted bloggers’ Facebook pages, on maps that also charted Huawei phone antennas, Zambian intelligence officials said.

* * *

Huaweimobile internet networks and surveillance systems sales exploding across Africa

Source: The Wall Street Journal

‘The big question has been whether Chinese companies are just doing this for the money, or whether they’re pushing a specific kind of surveillance agenda,’ Mr. Feldstein said, after being briefed on findings by the Journal. ‘This would suggest it’s the latter.’

Africa’s importance to China ‘is at least as much about Beijing’s longer-term vision for recruiting foreign countries to embrace Chinese norms of governance in the digital sphere and in terms of its illiberal political values,’ said Andrew Davenport, an executive at RWR Advisory Group, a Washington, D.C.-based risk management firm that tracks the international activities of Chinese and Russian firms.”

* * *

Read the full WSJ report, “Huawei Technicians Helped African Governments Spy On Political Opponents,” here.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Air cargo performance slumps all across European ports

(zerohedge)

“We Are Struggling:” Air Cargo Performance Slumps Across Major European Air Ports 

The German ZEW headline number on Tuesday crashed to -44.1 versus -28.5 expectations and -24.5 last. The indicator measures economic sentiment shows the Germany economy could be teetering on the edge of a manufacturing recession.

The most recent escalation in trade disputes between the US and China, the risk of a full-blown trade war and competitive devaluations, has put extreme pressure on the European economy, that is visible in declining freight performance at major airport cargo hubs.

Data from the Airports Council International (ACI) reports freight performance at Europe’s airports in 1H19 has been faltering, with only 30% of the top ten cargo gateways reporting YoY growth, reported JOC.

 

In 1H19, Madrid, Barcelona, and London were the only airports to record YoY growth. Frankfurt, the top air cargo hub in Europe, registered a drop of -2.5% YoY.

ACI said cargo gateways at airports across Europe, on an overall basis, recorded a -3.5% fall in 1H19.

Olivier Jankovec, director-general of ACI Europe, said European air freight data experienced significant deterioration in June, indicates that the rest of the summer through early fall could remain in decline.

“The slump in freight traffic is where it really bites at the moment,” he said.

“And it is not getting any better, with June registering a drop of 7.1%, the worst monthly performance in more than seven years.”

Air France-KLM freight data from July show freight markets continued to slump. Transported tonnage for the Franco-Dutch carrier declined 6% YoY last month.

Denmark’s DSV reported a drop of 5% YoY in 1H9 of its air freight segment, mainly due to recessionary conditions in the European auto sector.

The German economy is in decline, and that is also damaging Italy, France, Poland, and Spain.

Europe’s automobile industry plunged 8% in sales in June, the ninth monthly decline in the last ten months.

“The fact that the air freight market is down 5% year to date is worrying,” said Jens Bjørn Andersen, CEO of DSV.

“We are struggling to figure out what is driving this negative volume in air freight apart from automotive. You speak to one customer and he tells you one thing, but speak to another and he tells you almost the opposite. I think that some of the emergency shipments that we saw a year ago have gone and their supply chains are being managed more efficiently now.”

Growth rates in air freight cargo prices have remained depressed across all major global shipping routes this year. The most significant declines can be seen in Frankfurt to South East Asia, -28% YTD; Hong Kong to North America, -23.5% YTD; and Hong Kong to North America, -23.5% YTD.

International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported global air freight volumes in 1H19 fell for the eighth consecutive month. Demand, measured in freight ton-kilometers, dropped 4.8% in June YoY.

“Global trade continues to suffer as trade tensions — particularly between the US and China — deepen. As a result, air cargo markets continue to contract,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA director general and CEO.

European air freight data suggests that the probability of an economic recovery in Europe in 2H19 is low. What could be around the bend is a recession that starts, or has already stared in Germany.

end

GERMANY

Germany is without a doubt into a recession as its economy shrunk in Q2

(zerohedge)

Germany On Brink Of Recession As Economy Shrinks In Q2

In the latest sign that the economic powerhouse of Europe is teetering on the edge of recession thanks to the trade war between the US and China, Germany’s export-heavy economy shrank by 0.1% in the three months through June, according to official data published Wednesday by Destatis, the country’s federal statistics office.

The disappointing economic data – the second contraction in four quarters – comes one day after the ZEW Survey of financial market experts showed that German economic sentiment in August dropped to its lowest reading since 2011, which is stoking concerns that the German economy could slide into recession during Q3.

The industrial sector tipped the economy into contraction in 2Q, said BBG economic Jamie Rush, and there’s risk of further weakness in the second half of the year.

“If there’s any good news to take from this release, it’s that services must have continued to expand, indicating patches of resilience persist.”

 

 

Economy Minister Peter Altmaier tried to put a positive spin on the numbers, telling Bild that Germany can avoid a recession if the government responds with the right policies. However, the Q2 data are a “a wake-up call and a warning sign,” Altmaier said.

“We are in a phase of weak growth but not yet a recession,” he said. “The simmering trade conflicts are taking their toll and Germany’s export-orientated manufacturing sector is particularly affected” Germany needs “intelligent policies for growth,” including easing the burden on small and mid-sized companies, cutting corporate tax and a “clear plan” for the complete withdrawal of the so-called “Solidarity Tax.”

As the US-China trade war rages, Europe is finding that it’s particularly exposed.

Following this latest blow to global growth, the 10s2s Treasury curve inverted on Wednesday morning for the first time since the financial crisis. 10-year bund yields also dropped to near all-time lows of minus 0.624% as traders price in the prospect of more ECB easing.

The weak GDP print has heaped pressure on Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is finishing up her final term in office, to consider fiscal stimulus. But according to the FT, Chancellor Angela Merkel said she didn’t see the need for a fiscal stimulus package “so far,” though she conceded that “It’s true, we’re heading into a difficult phase…We will react depending on the situation.”

Once again, analysts are bandying about the phrase “the sick man of Europe” to describe Germany, per BBG.

“The sick man needs its medicine,” Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at TF Global Markets said. “Hence, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, will have to unleash a new fiscal stimulus package for her country to combat the effects of U.S.-China trade war. This may just do some of the trick for the euro-zone’s economy.”

Weakness in Germany appears to be rippling out across the region, but with one notable exception: The Netherlands reported surprisingly robust Q2 growth rate of 0.5% as domestic demand remained robust.

END
UK
A new poll suggests that citizens are demanding the PM must deliver Brexit by any means and if they must shut down parliament so be it..
(zerohedge)

Remainers Routed: 54% Say UK PM Should Deliver Brexit By Any Means

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

A new Comres poll shows 54% support Brexit by any means, even suspending Parliament, if necessary.

A tipping point has been reached. UK citizens are so sick of Brexit delays they just want Prime Minister Boris Johnson to get it over with.

 

The Telegraph reports Boris Johnson has Public’s Support to Shut Down Parliament to Get Brexit Over the Line.

The ComRes survey for The Telegraph found that 54 per cent of British adults think Parliament should be prorogued to prevent MPs stopping a no-deal Brexit.

The poll suggested the Prime Minister is more in tune with the public’s views on Brexit than MPs, following his promise to deliver Brexit by October 31 “do or die”.

Parliament vs Boris Johnson

The new poll revealed that, should MPs act to attempt to block Brexit, they may not have the support of voters. Asked whether they thought Parliament was more in tune with the public than Mr Johnson, 62 per cent disagreed.

Nine in 10 of those asked said Parliament was out of touch with the public (88 per cent), while 89 per cent believed most MPs were ignoring the wishes of voters to pursue their own agenda on Brexit. The public also overwhelmingly rejected the idea of the Queen being dragged into Brexit after John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, threatened to send Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, to Buckingham Palace “in a cab” to tell the 93-year-old monarch the Opposition was “taking over” if Mr Johnson were to lose a vote of no confidence but refused to resign.

Asked if the Queen should remain above politics and refuse to get involved in Brexit, 77 per cent said yes and 23 per cent said no.

Lesson of the Day

I take these polls with a grain of salt. Yet, the results are hardly shocking.

People are sick of Brexit dominating every facet of their lives for three years.

They want this mess over.

People’s Vote Madness

There is no support for a people’s referendum.

Nor is there any agreement on how to word a People’s Vote, nor any reason to believe the EU would wait months to organize such a vote.

MPs take note. Tories who vote against the government or the will of their constituencies will be voted out of office. Many Labour voters want Brexit as well.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

This morning’s assessment on the economic environment which hounds the globe by Michael Every of Rabobank

a must read..

(Michael Every/Rabobank)

Enjoy The Calm While It Lasts

Submitted by Michael Every of RaboBank

Another sleepless night in Hong Kongand not for any of the fun reasons that one might associate this free-wheeling city with. For a second day protestors occupied Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA), closing it down, and this time there was an angrier, more mob-like aspect to it. There were arguments with frustrated outbound passengers; attacks on two men accused of being undercover police, one of whom turned out to be a mainland journalist, with both tied up; the building of barricades; the use of pepper spray, truncheons; and—very nearly—a pistol. Following a court order to leave, the black-clad crowd once again fled. “Be water” is the protestors’ motto but water can boil, or go stagnant. At time of writing, HKIA is open again. Please see here for the report we published yesterday that tries to assess some of the damage, and larger implications, of what is going on in Hong Kong. Trust me, it is about more than just a busy airport being less busy for 48 hours.

For example, China’s Global Times argues it is part of a “colour revolution” aimed at toppling the Beijing government. Likewise, US President Trump last night warned the Chinese army was on the border of Hong Kong, along with helpful advice that “Everyone should be calm and safe!”. Stirring stuff and soaring rhetoric to rally behind from the leader of the Free World – although Trump also stated “Many are blaming me, and the United States, for the problems going on in Hong Kong. I can’t imagine why?” – with no smiley face or wink emoticon; retweeted images of Hong Kong protestors carrying the US flag; and of riot police clashing with them. This suggests perhaps more is going on there than meets the tweet.

One of the key conclusions of the HKIA report we share again above is that part of what is brewing, or should I say stewing, in Hong Kong is a much weaker CNY. However, we saw the complete opposite in offshore CNH yesterday–a staggering surge back through 7 (7.04 this morning)–on the surprise announcement the US will delay the 10% tariff on items such as laptops, mobile phones, and sports shoes from 1 September until 15 December and remove some items from the list for various reasons. Moreover, the US reached out to China to restart trade talks in a few weeks. “Naturally” that news, not the risk of Chinese troops in Hong Kong, is the major financial market headline today – because heaven help us if some Americans had to pay 10% more for a laptop this Xmas rather than in early 2020. Oh the humanity!

Markets, which had been battered by a Eurocrisis low in the German ZEW survey, obviously loved that trade news, with Treasury yields, already lifted by a stronger than expected US CPI print, jumping along with equities. Risk was suddenly on. Yet let’s just examine what this means:

From the Trump end of things the US gains breathing room – even USTR Lighthizer was allegedly blind-sided by the additional 10% tariffs when they were announced back in May. Trump thinks US consumers aren’t paying for tariffs, and now -just in case- definitely won’t be in the run-up to Black Friday and Christmas. Yet he continues to trash-talk China, tweeting just afterward the tariff decision that “As usual, China said they were going to buying “big” from our great American Farmers. So far they have not done what they said. Maybe this time will be different!” Moreover, he is aware that supply chains are shifting from China regardless. Oh, and the little matter that the USD is down, CNH up, and equities up too. Winning bigly, would no doubt be his verdict.

More so given that the NFIB small business survey noted “While many are talking about a slowing economy and possible signs of a recession, the largest economy in the world continues to defy expectations, generating output, creating value, and expanding the economy. Small business owners want to grow their operations, and the only thing stopping them is finding qualified workers.” As I noted yesterday, whisper it, but just perhaps SMEs are not hit so hard by tariffs as they are not so tied in to the global economy? Of course, for larger businesses we have some relief over the latest tariff news, but also more twists and turns that make serious planning impossible.

However, from the Xi end of things–who is cloistered away at the annual Beidaihe leadership retreat to plot strategy ahead of the all-important 1 October 70th Chinese Anniversary–we see a US that can’t stick to a tough policy; is afraid of its own consumers; is terrified of the stock market; and which won’t take a stand over Hong Kong. That suggests no need for Xi to move from a hard-line stance…on all fronts. Consequently, enjoy this opportunity to buy the USD at these levels in China – it almost certainly won’t last. Neither will this overall market bounce away from the recent gloomy trend. Indeed, while USD/JPY jumped from 105.2 to nearly 107 yesterday, it is this morning back at 106.35. At the same time, CNY fixing this morning was 7.0312, again stronger than 7.041 expected, but there was also no appetite to take advantage of the tariff issue to move back closer to 7.

Elsewhere, yes, Italy’s Salvini has been knocked back in his first attempt to call a snap election: but is an alternative government of the pro-market Democrats and the Five Star Movement really feasible? And, yes, UK courts are examining what PM BoJo (which auto-corrects to “Boo” on my computer…is it a closet Remainer?) can and can’t do over Brexit and Parliament, and that the press are speculating over what he can and can’t do over an election: yet without an election is an alternative government comprised of the Liberal Democrats, and rogue Tories, and the Corbyn Labour Party, and everyone else really feasible? Again, enjoy the calm while it lasts.

And, yes, this morning has seen a staggeringly good core machine orders print in Japan, which was expected -1.0% m/m and jumped 13.9%, in y/y terms up 12.5% vs. -1.1% consensus: what to make of that is still unclear. Yes, we have also seen Aussie consumer confidence rise 3.6% m/m, which does seem to have benefitted from lower rates and banks perhaps being allowed to sign off silly mortgage loan levels again. That was followed by wages, which were expected to rise just 0.5% q/q and stay at an unchanged 2.3% y/y but came in marginally stronger 0.6% q/q, 2.3% y/y – but which still underline why large loans are needed, i.e., the absence of decent pay rises. (The RBA’s Debelle speaks late in the day on a panel and will no doubt be in the bank’s usual undeserved self-congratulatory mode.)

But after that we got a major Chinese data dump, and I mean dump, in the form of fixed asset investment (5.7% y/y vs. 5.8% seen), industrial production (4.8% y/y vs. 6.0% seen), and retail sales (7.6% y/y vs. 8.6% seen), while unemployment rose to 5.3% from 5.1%. That’s shockingly weak by Chinese standards and underlines that regardless of tariff can-kicking, the Chinese economy is still in real difficulty. I repeat, enjoy the calm while it lasts.

end
CANADA
Canada’s Trudeau broke federal ethic rules in a corruption scandal we brought to your attention. The election is a few months away and I doubt if they will remove him prior to the elction
(zerohedge)

Justin Trudeau Broke Federal Ethics Rules In Corruption Scandal

In a hotly anticipated report released months after a former member of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet alleged that Trudeau and several members of his inner circle had tried to pressure her into dropping criminal charges against SNC-Lavalin, Canadian Ethics commissioner Mario Dion has ruled that, in doing so, Trudeau violated a section of the Conflict of Interest Act.

Justin Trudeau

In a report published on Wednesday, the commissioner said Trudeau used his position of authority over Jody Wilson-Raybould, the aforementioned former AG and Justice Minister, to try and convince her to halt a criminal prosecution of the Montreal-based engineering giant. According to the report, Trudeau violated Canada’s federal Conflict of Interest Act.

“The prime minister, directly and through his senior officials, used various means to exert influence over Ms. Wilson‑Raybould,” Dion said.

“The authority of the prime minister and his office was used to circumvent, undermine and ultimately attempt to discredit the decision of the director of public prosecutions as well as the authority of Ms. Wilson‑Raybould as the Crown’s chief law officer.”

Dion specifically cited Section 9 of the Conflict of Interest Act, which prohibits public officials from “using their position to seek to influence a decision to improperly further the private interests of a third party, either by acting outside the scope of their legislative authority, or contrary to a rule, a convention or an established process.”

The SNC-Lavalin scandal, as it came to be known, ultimately led to the departure of two Trudeau cabinet officials, and the departure of several senior figures from his staff. The opposition has called on him to resign.

As Dion noted in his report, it was not enough just to seek to influence someone else for an action to break the rules.

There had to be a specific desire to “improperly further the interests of SNC-Lavalin.”

Does this mean Trudeau’s Liberal Party will finally abandon its leader? Or is it too close to the October federal elections, where Trudeau is expected to seek a second term, to change course now? Either way, it’s good news for his conservative opponents who are trying to retake control of Ottawa.

Read the full report below:

Trudeau II Report by CynthiaMcLeodSun on Scribd

7. OIL ISSUES

China/Iran

A very important commentary concerning China’s development of 3 major oil/gas properties inside Iran.  If the USA is set to thwart any of these projects, China is wet to use its nuclear option:  the selling off of all of its uSA treasuries. I personally do not think that it would be in China’s interest to do so as the USA dollar is intertwined in many of their project financings.

(Simon Watkins/OilPrice.com)

China Prepares Its “Nuclear Option” In Trade War

Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

As the trade war with the U.S. continues to escalate, China has re-engaged with Iran on three key projects and is weighing the use of what both Washington and Beijing term the ‘nuclear option’, a senior oil and gas industry source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry told OilPrice.com last week.

For the first of these projects – Phase 11 of the supergiant South Pars non-associated gas field (SP11) – last week saw a statement from the chief executive officer of the Pars Oil and Gas Company (POGC) that talks had resumed with Chinese developers to advance the project. Originally the subject of an extensive contract signed by France’s Total before it pulled out due to re-imposed U.S. sanctions on Iran, talks had been well-advanced with the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to take up the slack on development. As per the original contract, CNPC had been assigned Total’s 50.1 percent stake in the field when the French firm withdrew, giving it a total of 80.1 percent in the site, with Iran’s own Petropars Company holding the remainder. At the same time, Iran was desperate to increase the pace of development of the fields in its oil-rich West Karoun area, including North Azadegan, South Azadegan, North Yaran, South Yaran, and Yadavaran, in order to optimise oil flows ahead of further clampdowns on exports by the U.S.

China, though, which at that time was engaged in just the opening shots of the trade war with the U.S. was loathe to completely disregard all U.S. sensibilities when it came to Iran but equally saw itself as a longstanding partner of the Islamic Republic, not to mention always being cognisant of its need to ensure diversity of energy supply.

At that point, China agreed a trade-off with the U.S. that in exchange for it halting active development of SP11 it would be allowed to continue its activities in North Azadegan and would be able to go ahead with its development of Yadavaran – the second of China’s major Iran projects. China told the U.S. that its continued involvement in North Azadegan could easily be justified to anyone else who might be interested – such as the mainstream media – on the basis that it had already spent billions of dollars developing the second phase of the 460 square kilometre field. Similarly, China said at the time, its ongoing activities on Yadavaran could be justified by dint of the fact that the original contract had been signed in good faith in 2007, way before the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May 2018 and thus, legally speaking, it had every right to go ahead.

The third of China’s major as yet unfinished projects in Iran was the build-out of the Jask oil export terminal, which – crucially, particularly in the current security situation – does not lie within the Strait of Hormuz or even in the Persian Gulf, but rather in the Gulf Of Oman. Even before the new U.S. sanctions, the Kharg export terminal was not ideal for use by tankers as the narrowness of the Strait of Hormuz means that they have to go very slowly through it. With the new sanctions in place and tit-for-tat tanker seizures regularly occurring, China would have little choice but to put at least a couple of its own warships into the Gulf to safeguard their passage or stop buying Iranian oil entirely, neither of which Beijing particularly wants to do.

So, according to the plans, a US$2 billion or so 1,000 kilometre oil pipeline will connect Guriyeh in the Shoaybiyeh-ye Gharbi Rural District, in Khuzestan Province (south-west Iran), to Jask County, in Hormozgan Province (south Iran), with any financing required over and above that provided for Iran to be made readily available  from China. Also to be constructed in Jask is an initial 20 storage tanks each capable of storing 500,000 barrels of oil, and related shipping facilities, at a cost of around US$200 million. Overall, the intention is for Jask to have the capacity to store up to 30 million barrels and export one million barrels per day of crude oil. There are adjunct plans to build a large petrochemicals and refining complex in Jask as well, with the prime market for produced petchems – including gasoline, gas oil, jet fuel, sulphur, butadiene, ethylene and propylene, and mono-ethylene glycol – again being China. According to a recent comment by the director of projects at Iran’s National Petrochemical Company, Ali Mohammad Bossaqzadeh, the project would be built and run by Bakhtar Petrochemicals Holding, although ‘other foreign companies’ may take part. In fact, according to the Iran source, China has also offered to send as many engineers and other professionals required in such a project to Iran for as long as necessary.

Having said that, and aware of the leverage that it had with Iran as one of the very few countries still willing to engage in developing its fields in the midst of increasingly vigorously-imposed sanctions, China has sought deal sweeteners from Iran, and has been given them. In order for it to reactivate its development of SP11, China will get a 17.25 percent discount for nine years on the value of all gas it recovers. “This is the value of the gas as applied to CNPC’s cost-return formula against the open market valuation, and currently the net present value of the site is US$116 billion,” the Iran source told OilPrice.com. For its part, China has agreed to increase the production from its oil fields in the West Karoun area – including North Azadegan and Yadavaran – by an additional 500,000 bpd by the end of 2020. This dovetails with Iran’s plan to increase the recovery rate from these West Karoun fields that it shares with Iraq from the current 5 percent (compared to Saudi Arabia’s 50 percent). “For every one percent increase, the recoverable reserves figure would increase by 670 million barrels, or around US$34 billion in revenues with oil even at US$50 a barrel,” the Iran source said.

If there is any further pushback from the U.S. on any of these Chinese projects in Iran, then Beijing will invoke in full force the ‘nuclear option’ of selling all or a significant part of its US$1.4 trillion holding of U.S. Treasury Bills, with a major chunk of the paper due to be sold in September on this basis. This massive holding of these bonds – through which the U.S. finances its economy and is an important factor both in the value of the dollar and therefore in the health of U.S. international companies especially – has been used as a bargaining chip before by China, especially when it feels threatened. Back in 2007, just before the great financial crisis, a number of senior Chinese figures at various state-run think tanks – through which China often signals its big geopolitical threats – stated that the large-scale selling of this massive Treasury Bill holding would trigger a dollar crash, a huge spike in bond yields, the collapse of the housing market and stock market chaos.

Such a tactic would neatly fit into China’s overall strategy to have the renminbi challenge the U.S. dollar’s status as the key global reserve currency and the prime currency for global energy transactions.

“The long-planned sequencing for this was inclusion in the SDR {Special Drawing Rights] mix, which happened in 2016, increasing use as a trading currency, which followed that, use as the key currency of an international energy trading exchange, which has occurred with the creation of the renminbi-denominated Shanghai International Energy Exchange in last year, and the calls from big oil producers and other major trading nations to use the renminbi, which has been happening over the past few years,” the head of a New York-based commodities hedge fund told OilPrice.com.

Only recently, Leonid Mikhelson, chief executive officer of Russian oil major, Novatek, said that future sales to China denominated in renminbi is under consideration and that U.S. sanctions accelerate the process of Russia trying to switch away from U.S. dollar-centric oil and gas trading and the damage from potential sanctions that go with it.

“This has been discussed for a while with Russia’s largest trading partners such as India and China, and even Arab countries are starting to think about it… If they do create difficulties for our Russian banks then all we have to do is replace dollars,” he said.

“The trade war between the U.S. and China will only accelerate the process,” he added.

The trade war with the U.S., though, may be the very reason why this policy is not being pushed right now by China, Rory Green, Asia economist for TS Lombard told OilPrice.com last week.

“With the renminbi weakening, and set to reach 7.50 to the [U.S.] dollar level if the U.S. imposes 25 percent tariffs on all Chinese exports, it is more difficult for China to persuade the big oil producers like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, to make the switch away from the dollar,” he said.

For China as well, the timing is not quite right, as its use of Eurodollar financing is currently significant, it has a lot of dollar-denominated bonds rolling over shortly, and its balance of payments needs a relatively healthy U.S. demand profile, but China wants to get away from the dollar system and that is the overall direction of travel,” he concluded.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA

This may hurt.. India’s car market has just crashed. Last month was the worst in 18 years.  It seems that the world is running out of liquidity at the same time…

(zerohedge)

India’s Car Market Just Crashed, Had Its Worst Month In 18 Years

Automobile sales in India are crashing at the steepest pace since December 2000, an auto industry body told Reuters on Tuesday.

The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) said domestic passenger vehicle sales in July plunged 30.9% to 200,790. It’s the ninth consecutive month of declines and the steepest drop in 18 years.

India has been a significant manufacturing hub for carmakers until 2017, with annual sales of passenger vehicles growing by 33% over the past five years.

The downturn in the automobile industry is a significant obstacle for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government because autos account for 50% of India’s manufacturing output.

Automobile companies, directly and indirectly, employ more than 35 million people.

“If this industry goes down, then everything gets hurt. Manufacturing, jobs, and revenue to the government,” Vishnu Mathur, director general, SIAM, told Reuters on Tuesday, adding that car and motorcycle manufacturers have already slashed about 15,000 jobs.

Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) warned that the automobile downturn would continue to cycle down through 2H19, leading to more job losses with dealerships and across the entire industry.

“The majority of job cuts have happened in the last three months…It started around May and continued through June and July,” FADA President Ashish Harsharaj Kale told Press Trust of India.

Kale said, “Right now most of the cuts which have happened are in front-end sales jobs, but if this (slowdown) continues, then even the technical jobs will be affected because if we are selling less then we will also service less, so it is a cycle.”

Already, the auto sector has cut as many as 350,000 jobs; this includes auto manufacturing, auto parts manufacturing, and dealership jobs.

Last month, Bosch Ltd, the largest parts maker in India, published a memo that outlined how it suspended operations at its Gangaikondan plant in Tamil Nadu for a week in late July to “avoid unnecessary build-up of inventory.”

Ram Venkataramani, President, Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA), said the 15% to 20% cut in auto production had triggered an auto crisis in India, could lead to at least one million people being laid off.

The auto crisis – regarded by industry executives as a disastrous downturn that could be one of the worst seen in the country’s history.

Auto companies have asked the Modi government for tax breaks to offset the slump.

“The data shows an urgent need for a revival package from the government. The industry is doing everything possible to increase sales, but it needs government support to prevent the crisis from worsening,” Mathur told reporters in New Delhi.

The current manufacturing slowdown in India is cyclical and isn’t expected to trough for the next several years. Autos were the first domino to fall, and next, it could be the Indian consumer. The bust cycle has begun.

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1173 DOWN .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.93 DOWN 0.704 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2067   UP   0.0005  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3284 UP .0070 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 3 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1173 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 11.66 POINTS OR 0.42% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 20.98 POINTS OR 0.08%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,44%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 20.98 POINTS OR 0.08%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.66 POINTS OR 0.42%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 44% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 199.69  POINTS OR 0.98%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1413.30

silver:$17.16-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.59% !!! DOWN 11 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.03 DOWN 13  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.79 DOWN 1 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.17% DOWN 6 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.22%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.14%//DOWN 7 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,51 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 137 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.65% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.16% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1141  DOWN     .0035 or 35 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.75 DOWN .850 OR YEN UP 85  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2062 down .0001 POUND down 1  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 107 basis points to 1.3321

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0244    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0524  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6184 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.22%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 11 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.59 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.03 DOWN 13 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.94 UP 13  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 103.02  1.42%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 257.47 POINTS OR 2.19%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 111.17 POINTS 2.08%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 172.40 POINTS or 1.98%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 519.15 POINTS OR 2.53%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.19 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 58.54 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    66.07  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 1.01 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 101 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.65 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.11//

 

 

BRENT :  59.30

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.59… DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.03..DOWN 13 BASIS POINTS

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1136 ( DOWN 40   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.96 DOWN .647 (YEN UP 65 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.98 UP 18 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.205 DOWN 4  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6103

 

 

the Russian rouble 66.06   DOWN 1.13 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 113 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3316 DOWN 101 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0244  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0548 (OFFSHORE)

 

 

The Dow closed DOWN 800.49 POINTS OR 3.05%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 356.32 POINTS OR 2.80%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  22.10 CLOSED UP 4.58

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.158%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Markets In Turmoil: “Clubbed Like A Baby Seal!”

Since Powell cut rates, Bonds and Bullion are up 6%, Stocks are down 6%, and the dollar is unchanged…

#EpicPolicyFail

 

Chinese stocks played catch-up with US stocks yesterday after the hope-filled tariff-delay comments…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were dumped today…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, elsewhere in Europe, that insane 2117 maturity Austrian bond reached $200 (after being issued at $99.502 in 2017), up 72% YTD

Source: Bloomberg

The duration of the bond is set to be around 44 years, making it the bond with the highest duration in the euro zone government debt market.

And as yields collapsed, European banks broke key support…

Source: Bloomberg

 

US and China stocks are exactly matched YTD (up around 14%) while Europe lags…

Source: Bloomberg

Ugly day for US stocks (down broadly 3%) as stops were run yesterday and dismal data from China and Germany sparked a big de-risking…

And on the week…

 

Weakest close on The Dow since June 4th and a huge drop – down 801 points – the biggest since Oct 31st.. (on 8/5 The Dow dropped 767 points, 12/04 -799pts, 10/31 -832).

Today’s dump occurred after a 3rd failed test of the Fib 61.8% retrace of the July tumble…

 

The Dow closed below its 200DMA

 

Party like its 1998…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Bank stocks were battered, once again catching down (relative to the broad market) to the collapsing yield curve (how many more false starts in financials will traders willing bid for)

Source: Bloomberg

 

Treasury yields collapsed today, led by the long-end (30Y -13bps, 2Y -8bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

2s30s has crashed further into the red for the year…

Source: Bloomberg

The 30Y Treasury yield tumbled to an all-time record low today, trading as low as 2.01%…

Source: Bloomberg

And the 10Y term premium tumbled to a record low…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve completed its inversions today with 2s10s finally crossing the zero line…

Source: Bloomberg

For the first time since 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

Don’t worry about recession though because former Fed Chair Yellen said the yield curve may be less of a reliable signal at the moment. Thanks Janet!

Germany, Canada, and UK also inverted.

And the 2s10s swap curve is its most inverted ever…

Source: Bloomberg

And don’t forget, a flattening 2s10s curve has historically led to a secular rise in volatility…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Having trodden water for 2 weeks since the spike and dump on Powell and Tariffs, the dollar broke back higher today…

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore Yuan slipped back below the fix…

Source: Bloomberg

And options traders are betting that the HKD breaks the peg…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg’s Gregor Stuart Hunter notes, the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to its U.S. counterpart — unbroken since the 1980s — is drawing some skepticism as anti-government protests swell. Options traders are paying the most since 2016 for bets that the currency tests or breaches its 7.85 per dollar limit, relative to a contrary wager that the currency strengthens. “Folks are looking at the Hong Kong protests and don’t see any off-ramp, just escalation, and pushing up the risk premium,” said Cliff Tan, head of global markets research for East Asia at MUFG Bank.

 

Emerging Market currencies have re-collapsed to recent cycle lows…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Cryptos were clubbed like baby seal…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bitcoin bounced off $10,000…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Gold gained on the day despite dollar strength but oil was pounded…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Gold prices retraced yesterday’s lows as safe-haven bids hit…

 

Negative-yielding debt continues to soar…

Source: Bloomberg

BofAML’s Commodity Strategist Michael Widmer argues that successive rounds of monetary easing have had a series of side effects, including higher gold prices. Widmer notes that successive rounds of easing have delivered less bang for the buck and markets are much less enthusiastic about further stimulus. Quantitative failure, under which markets refocus on elevated debt levels or the lack of global growth would likely lead to a material increase in volatility. At the same time, and perhaps perversely, such a sell-off may prompt central banks to ease more aggressively, making gold an even more attractive asset to hold. Although his 2Q20 forecast is $1,500/oz, (where Gold trades today), in this sell-off scenario, he sees the potential for gold to rise towards $2,000/oz.

Oil prices cratered today, erasing all of yesterday’s gains.

 

Finally, as Albert Edwards warns:

“The answer seems pretty obvious to me. The bond markets are telling us that the cycle is ending with the central banks having failed to drive core CPI inflation higher.

So Japanese-style outright deflation lies ahead at a time when western economies have piled debt sky high.”

Who could have seen that coming?

Gold tops stocks YTD and bonds are about to overtake the S&P too…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar shortage continues…

Source: Bloomberg

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Tremendous amounts of money pouring into the United States. People want safety!

22.7K people are talking about this

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

The global economy is now in big trouble:  the 2s vs 10 yield curve inverts for the first time in 12 years…and the 30 yr bond yield drops to 2.01..an all time low

(zerohedge)

Recession Countdown Begins: Treasury 2s10s Yield Curve Inverts For First Time In 12 Years; 30Y Yield Drops To All Time Low

While many have noted the inversion of the 3m-10Y segment of the US Treasury curve, mainstream investors appear more focused on the spread between 2Y and 10Y yields… and that has just inverted for the first time since May 2007.

The spread between 3m and 10Y yields has been inverted since mid-May and reached its most inverted since April 2007 this morning…

Source: Bloomberg

 

But now, the 2Y-10Y spread ha collapsed into inversion…

source: Bloomberg

For the first time since May 2007…

All major segments of the curve are now inverted

source: Bloomberg

With 30Y below the EFF…

source: Bloomberg

And 30Y at record low yield at 2.05%, down 10bps overnight…

source: Bloomberg

The strongest recessionary signal yet, and equity markets appear to be waking up what this all means…

Source: Bloomberg

Here is Larry Kudlow last summer explaining that everyone freaking out about the 2s10s spread is silly, they focus on the 3-month to 10-year spread that has preceded every recession in the last 50 years (with few if any false positives)… (fwd to 4:20)

CNBC

@CNBC

“Actually we’re reading the spread wrong,” Larry Kudlow says of the flattening yield curve. “There’s no recession in sight right now.” https://cnb.cx/2zOaKgh

Embedded video

And here is Bloomberg showing how the yield curve inverted in 1989, in 2000 and in 2006, with recessions prompting starting in 1990, 2001 and 2008. This time won’t be different.

Critically, as Jim Grant noted recently, the spread between the 10-year and three-month yields is an important indicator, James Bianco, president and eponym of Bianco Research LLC notes today. On six occasions over the past 50 years when the three-month yield exceeded that of the 10-year, economic recession invariably followed, commencing an average of 311 days after the initial signal.

Finally, Joseph Carson, former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein, notes that recessions are far from being alike and their symptoms and causes differ over time. Despite its many shapes and sizes the historical regularity that an inverted Treasury yield curve has coincided with recession has raised concern now that yields on longer-dated Treasuries have fallen been below shorter-term yields for several months running.

The power of the term spread to predict or anticipate economic recessions needs to be respected, but there are several new domestic and global factors that are present today, suggesting that the signaling effect from changes in the Treasury yield curve directly to the economy’s future performance might not be as robust as it was past periods.

First, this is the first economic cycle that involved a bond-buying program by the Federal Reserve. The quantitative bond-buying program produced a technical anchoring effect at the long-end of the bond market that was not present in prior cycles. While this program did not cause a yield curve inversion by itself it did result in a flatter yield curve than what otherwise would have been the case, and as a result, it would not take much force from other factors to trigger an inversion in the term spread of yields.

Second, given the increased globalization of the financial markets the appeal and demand of long-dated US Treasury securities is often based on the yields available in other major economies. Long bond yields in a number of major economies (such Germany, Japan and France) are negative and many others (including the UK, Spain and Australia) are below 1% and that has led to an increase in global demand for long-dated US Treasury securities since yields in the US are in some cases 100 to 200 basis points over the yields of comparable maturities in other economies. That increased global demand for US securities is a new technical factor and unrelated to the performance of the US economy.

Third, this is the first time the inversion of the Treasury curve occurred with nominal yields at the short and long end that were well below the growth in nominal income and GDP (or the economy’s yield curve). Why is that important? There is a direct negative consequence to the economy’s performance when the cost of borrowing exceeds the growth in nominal income. At that point, the cost of new borrowing starts to become too costly, leading to a slowdown or a decline in credit use, and a weaker economy.

Although it is often overlooked, all of the Treasury yield curve inversions that have preceded recessions have coincided with an inversion in the economy’s yield curve, or when short and long-term nominal rates were above the growth in nominal income and GDP. The fact that the Treasury yield curve has inverted at relatively low nominal yields, suggests that the interest rate channel is not producing the restrictive influences on the economy as it did during prior inversions and instead is actually providing a cushion (or stimulus) to the economy. Policymakers should take note of this unusual occurrence and not rush to ease policy further, saving its interest rate powder for another time.

If the Treasury curve inversion is not producing a restrictive influence on the economy as it did in the past can the US still experience a recession? Yes, but it would come from different channels.

The biggest recession risk today centers around the trade dispute between the US and China. Trade disputes have the potential to be very disruptive and contractionary and can operate through a number of channels, such as trade volumes and production, currencies and prices and asset markets.

Of all of these channels, the biggest vulnerability for the US is the equity channel since the market value of equities relative to income and GDP is at record highs, providing consumers with vast sums of liquidity and wealth. If the imposition of new tariffs and the uncertainty over what may follow triggers a de-risking and rush to exit, sparking a sustained 25% to 30% correction in the equity market that by itself could trigger a recession as it would deal a substantial blow to consumer liquidity and wealth, and an abrupt and sharp decline in spending and confidence.

That is not a forecast or a prediction but merely an observation that all recessions have been caused by some form of a demand shock, and the inverted yield curve merely highlighted the vulnerability of the economy to a potential bad outcome.

END
DOW PLUNGES 450 POINTS..right off the bat
(zerohedge)

Dow Futures Plunge 450 Points – Erase All ‘Tariff-Delay’ Gains

Well that de-escalated quickly…

Dow futures are down over 450 points this morning…

 

Seems like critical resistance held after all…

 

From hope to nope.

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

the biggy: 2 and 10 just inverted..its meaning..

(zerohedge)

 

The 2s10s Just Inverted: Here’s What Happens Next

It’s official: after 12 years – the longest artificial, central-bank propped expansion on record – the business cycle is once again officially in its death throes, and this morning the 2s10s Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since May 2007.

So why is the market freaking out? Because of all economic indicators, this one is without doubt the most foreboding and ominous. Consider that 2s-10s yield curve inversions have preceded the last seven recessions and nine out of the last 12 recessions. In fact, as Bank of America points out, there was one yield curve inversion in the mid 1960s that did not precede a recession and the yield curve did not invert ahead of the three recessions between the mid 1940s and early 1950s. However, in the past 5 decades, a 2s10s inversion has been a guaranteed signal that a recession is imminent.

So when should one expect the recession to arrive? Going back to 1956 it has taken between eight (1959) and 24 months (1967) for a US recession to start after a yield curve inversion. The average and median length of time from inversion to the start of a recession are 15.1 and 16.3 months, respectively. It took a year or more for a recession to begin after six out the ten inversions (1956, 1967, 1978, 1989, 2000, and 2005).

But while a recession may now be just a matter of time, the bigger question for traders is what happens to the stock market next? According to an analysis from Bank of America, while much of the time the S&P 500 peaks within two to three months of a 2s10s yield curve inversion but it can take one to two years for an S&P 500 peak after an inversion.

For the ten yield curve inversions back to 1956, the S&P 500 topped out within approximately three months of the inversion six times (1956, 1959, 1965, 1973, 1980, and 2000). However, the S&P 500 took 11 to 22 months to peak after the other four inversions (1967, 1978, 1989, and 2005).

On an average basis, the S&P 500 tends to peak 7.3 months (average) or 2.6 months (median) after a 2s10s yield curve inversionThe range of S&P 500 peaks is from 1.6 months (1973) to 21.6 months (2005) after the inversion – a wide range.

In short, as BofA gloomily summarizes, the US equity market is on borrowed time after the yield curve inverts. There is a silver lining: after an initial post-inversion dip, the S&P 500 can rally meaningfully prior to a bigger US recession related drawdown. Think of it as the market’s “last gasp” rally.

Here are the details: The initial post-inversion drawdown is 5.2% on average (5.5% median) but has ranged from 0% (1980) to 10.5% (1978). These drawdowns typically last one to two months but have ranged from 0 (1980) to 5.8 months (1973).

After the initial drawdown, the S&P 500 can have a meaningful last gasp rally. This rally has averaged 16.7% (12.4% median) with a range of 2.0% (1965) to 28.5% (1989) and lasts 6.7 months on average (2.8 median) with a range of 0.9 to 16.5 months. The 1967, 1978, 1989, and 2005 inversions saw last gasp rallies in excess of 20% on the S&P 500.

In other words, the typical pattern is the yield curve inverts, the S&P 500 tops sometime after the curve inverts (see above) and the US economy goes into recession six to seven months after the S&P 500 peaks. The S&P 500 tends to be a leading indicator of US recessions but market peaks occurred just after the three recessions beginning in 1929 (Great Depression), 1980, and 1990. The S&P 500 leads at the end of recessions and tends to bottom out five months prior to the end of a US recession. The S&P 500 has never bottomed after any of the 14 recessions going back to 1929.

Ok, so, a recession is coming. What will that look like and how will the market perform? According to BofA, S&P 500 corrections associated with NBER recessions average 31.7% (22.2% median) and lasts 14-15 months (range of 1.4 to 33.0 months.

There is a silver lining here, too, in that S&P correction are less severe during secular bull markets. The 1950-1966 bull market had three and the 1980-2000 bull market had two. The S&P 500 pullbacks associated with recessions during secular bull trends are much less severe and averaged 20% (range of 13.9% to 27.1%) rather than the average 40% drawdown (range of 0.0% to 86.2%) for recession pullbacks during secular bear phases.

In other words, expect the bullish pundits to hit the financial TV circuit next, preaching that this is nothing more than a garden variety mini recession in a long-term secular bull market. The reality, of course, is that if central banks have indeed lost control, this will be the worst bear market in history.

Looking at the 2s10s spread itself, it follows a cycle of 1) peaking and flattening to inversion, 2) spending time inverted and 3) steepening out of inversion to the yield curve peak.

  • When 2s10s peaks and flattens to inversion, the S&P 500 has had positive annualized returns 100% of the time averaging 16.82% (median 11.54%).
  • When the curve is inverted, the S&P 500 has had negative annualized returns 60% of the time averaging -2.05%(median – 5.97%).
  • When the 2s10s steepens out of inversion until the next spread peak, the S&P 500 is up 80% of the time with average annualized returns of 17.17% (median 16.24%).

Finally, the S&P 500 tends to show strong returns when the 2s10s yield curve flattens from its peak level. The average annualized S&P 500 return from yield spread peak to trough was 14.26% (10.96% median) with 81.8% of observations showing positive returns.

In contrast, and this goes back to why we warned that its not the inversion but the subsequent steepening that is most painful, returns as the 2s10s treasury spread steepens showed a more muted 5.56% average return (2.44% median) with 60% of observations showing positive returns.

And while we now know that a recession is now on the horizon, something which Rabo accurately predicted last week when it noted its model now outputs 81% odds of an economic contraction over the next year…

… the question is what the Fed will do. Here, too, Rabo had an answer: Powell will cut back to zero by December 2020.

After that? Well, the financial system has to be protected, so expected more QE and NIRP to finally arrive in the US as the war against cash goes into its final lap.

end

Now the Dow is down 700 points

(zerohedge)

Dow Futures Dump 700 Points To Critical Support, Yuan Slide Is Accelerating

Dow futures are extending overnight losses, now down 700 points as the cash Dow nears its 200DMA and yuan tumbles…

Yesterday’s buying-panic gains are a distant memory…

Dow cash is falling very close to its 200DMA once again… will it hold this time.

And Yuan is starting to catch down to stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

And we know who to blame (according to President Trump)

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

“The Fed has got to do something! The Fed is the Central Bank of the United States, not the Central Bank of the World.” Mark Grant @Varneyco Correct! The Federal Reserve acted far too quickly, and now is very, very late. Too bad, so much to gain on the upside!

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

First time in a decade, the Postal Service in the uSA has pkg volume drop

(zerohedge)

 

USPS Reports First Drop In Package Volume In Nearly A Decade 

The US Postal Service (USPS) is in a dangerous death spiral as it could run out of cash by the mid-2020s. The postmaster general warned in May that unless significant reforms are made to the quasi governmental agency, it could soon collapse.

A new report from The Wall Street Journal suggests that the downfall of the USPS could be more imminent than thought. Package delivery volume declined in 2Q19 for the first time since 2009. The cause of the drop is due to Amazon, United Parcel Service, and FedEx increasingly delivering online packages to homes.

The USPS has experienced diminishing revenues for years even though they deliver packages to at least a million new addresses per year. The increased competition, largely from private shippers, has made the marketplace more competitive, leading to lower shipping rates that have financially stressed USPS.

The Journal said USPS delivered 3.2% fewer packages for the quarter ended June 30.

 

Postmaster General Megan Brennan said Friday that other delivery players are convincing shippers to switch to their networks, noting that they’re “aggressively pricing their products and services in order to fill their networks and grow package density.”

Brennan added, “That said, we are constantly adapting our competitive posture to counter emerging developments.”

The USPS will likely notice higher package volume declines through 2020. FedEx plans on shifting 2 million of its daily packages that are diverted to USPS for “last-mile delivery” into its Ground network next year.

Overall for 2Q, USPS posted a modest drop in revenue to $17.09 billion. It lost money on first-class mail, marketing mail, and periodicals.

Total operating expenses fell by 4.3% to $19.3 billion for the quarter.

The total loss for the period was $2.26 billion, compared with $1.49 billion a year earlier.

USPS has avoided collapse by defaulting on $48 billion in mandated payments over the past several years, Brennan said at a recent hearing called by the House Committee on Oversight and Reform.

Brennan has called for legislative and regulatory changes to correct USPS’ busted business model, where its largest and most profitable business of first-class mail remains in a slump.

“We anticipate that given our ongoing liquidity concerns, and without legislative action and regulatory reform, we may not be able to pay all legally required obligations and also invest in much-needed capital expenditures in 2019 and future years that are necessary to ensure our ability to fulfill our primary mission,” USPS said Friday.

Early indications show that the USPS is headed for a credit crunch sometime in the early 2020s. The one question that we have: Could the government let the USPS fail in a push towards privatization?

end
My wife’s favourite shop, Macy’s crashes to a 9 year low after they slashed outlook
(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Guards were asleep during Epstein’s alleged suicide.  They then falsified records to cover it up

(zerohedge)

Guards Were Sleeping During Epstein’s Alleged Suicide, Then Falsified Records To Cover It Up

In the latest blockbuster report about how the chronic understaffing and mandatory overtime at MCC helped contribute to Jeffrey Epstein’s “suicide” (or at least that’s the official narrative that certain parties are trying to push), the New York Times reported on Wednesday that the two guards tasked with monitoring Epstein’s unit were asleep when the pedophile-financier tied a bedsheet around his neck and the other end to a top bunk, before pitching himself forward.

When the guards awakened after not checking on Epstein for three hours to discover, to their horror, that Epstein had apparently committed suicide, they decided to falsify records to cover their tracks, something that could draw criminal charges, per the NYT.

Ladies and gentlemen, have we found our patsies?

 

The two staff members in the special housing unit where Mr. Epstein was held – 9 South – falsely recorded in a log that they had checked on the financier, who was facing sex trafficking charges, every 30 minutes, as was required, the officials said. Such false entries in an official log could constitute a federal crime.

In fact, the two people guarding Mr. Epstein had been asleep for some or all of the three hours, three of the officials said.

The two employees were placed on administrative leave on Tuesday, while Warden of the jail was temporarily reassigned pending the outcome of the investigation, while the Warden of the federal prison in Otisville has been named acting warden of the Manhattan jail.

Those disclosures came on Tuesday as the two employees were placed on administrative leave and the warden of the jail, the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan, was temporarily reassigned, pending the outcome of the investigation into Mr. Epstein’s death, the Justice Department announced.

One of the staff members who was working to guard Epstein that night was a former corrections officer who had recently taken a desk job inside the prison. But he had recently volunteered to cover some shifts as a corrections officer once again for the extra overtime pay. The second officer, a woman who was assigned to that wing, had been forced to work overtime because of staffing shortages.

Prison staff found Epstein, 66, dead in his cell at the Metropolitan Correctional Center at 6:30 a.m. on Saturday, officials said. Earlier reports said staff heard shrieking coming from his cell around the time of his death. He was awaiting trial on charges of sexually abusing dozens of underage girls. Just days before, thousands of pages of documents were released by the US Attorney of the Southern District of New York’s office revealing at least half a dozen new names who had never been associated with Epstein and his sex ring before, including former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Marvin Minsky, to name a few.

It’s this particularly curious timing that has prompted some to speculate that conspiracy theories that Epstein was murdered or switched with a body double might be real, since without Epstein, there won’t be a trial (though AG William Barr has vowed to bring his co-conspirators to justice, his most prominent associate, Ghislaine Maxwell, is nowhere to be found).

END

This is fascinating.. Ghislaine Maxwell has been found.  She is living with her boyfriend Tech CEO Dr  Scott Borgerson. They live in a multimillion dollar oceanfront mansion. Now things get very interesting

(zerohedge)

Epstein’s “Madam” Found: Ghislaine Maxwell Living With Tech CEO In Multimillion Oceanfront Mansion

Jeffrey Epstein’s former “best friend” and alleged procurer of underage girls, Ghislaine Maxwell, has been found after three years of speculation.

The 57-year-old British heiress was discovered laying low in a $3 million “secluded oceanfront property at the end of a long private road” in New England with her boyfriend, 43-year-old tech CEO Scott Borgerson, according to the Daily Mail.

The socialite’s New England hideaway is an imposing three-story colonial property with five-bedrooms, wraparound terraces and sweeping grounds which reach to the ocean. The property is owned by tech CEO and maritime academic Dr Scott Borgerson.

Borgerson was seen by DailyMail.com in July running errands in the affluent community of Manchester-by-the-Sea, a half-hour drive from Boston.

The former Coast Guard officer, is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He was married and is believed to have two children. –Daily Mail

She’s become a real homebody, rarely ventures out” of the house in Manchester-by-the-Sea, Massachusetts, said the Mail‘s source, adding “She’s the antithesis of the woman who traveled extensively and partied constantly with Epstein.”

Little was known of Maxwell’s whereabouts since she was last seen publicly three years ago as a multitude of reports claimed she had been living abroad, perhaps in London.

Her former townhouse on the Upper East Side of Manhattan was sold for $15 million in 2016, by a company with the same address as Epstein’s New York office.

The spotlight has now swung to Maxwell, and other alleged co-conspirators of Epstein, following the convicted pedophile’s apparent suicide in a Manhattan jail cell on Saturday. –Daily Mail

Maxwell has been accused by at least three women of procuring and training young girls to perform massage and sexual acts on the Epstein and his associates. Maxwell was said to have hired, supervised and fired household staff, while directing the visits of dozens of “massage therapists” to Epstein’s residence, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Prince Andrew, Ghislaine Maxwell and Virginia Roberts – who claims to have seen Bill Clinton on Epstein’s infamous island while she was being sex-trafficked. 

Her father was publisher Robert Maxwell – who himself faced accusations of being a Mossad double (and possibly triple) agent and a “bad character” who was “almost certainly financed by Russia,” according to the British Foreign Office. Robert Maxwell died in 1991 when he fell from his yacht, the Lady Ghislaine – however the circumstances surrounding his demise have been rife with speculation (including that it was a Mossad assassination).

Epstein and Maxwell reportedly met and began dating around 1992 shortly after her father’s death. In 1995, Epstein renamed a now-defunct Palm Beach company “Ghislaine Corp,” which was dissolved in 1998 per the Wall Street Journal. In 2003, Epstein described Maxwell as his “best friend,” who was not on his payroll – yet “seems to organize much of his life.”

Maxwell also attended Chelsea Clinton’s wedding – and has been linked to other prominent people such as Prince Andrew, Donald Trump and Alan Dershowitz.

Adam McKay@GhostPanther

Here’s Ghislaine Maxwell, by many accounts Jeffrey Epstein’s “pimp” and “groomer of girls” at Chelsea Clinton’s wedding.

4,691

5:08 PM – Jul 7, 2019

Twitter Ads info and privacy

2,978 people are talking about this

While Maxwell hasn’t been charged in any of Epstein’s crimes, speculation has swirled that she is an unnamed co-conspirator in the case against him. 

And according to Attorney General Bill Barr, “…this case will continue on against anyone who was complicit with Epstein. Any co-conspirators should not rest easy,” adding “The victims deserve justice and they will get it.”

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Hong Kong Protesters Overwhelm Airport for Second Day – Airport suspends all passenger check-ins; status of dozens of remaining evening flights wasn’t immediately known

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-protesters-overwhelm-airport-for-second-day-11565687274

@CNBCJou: German ZEW economic sentiment nosedives to -44.1 vs poll of -28.5.  Warns of further strain on exports and industrial production

Argentine Peso Sumps 7.8% TO 58 per Dollar as Tour Deepens

At 9:40 ET, BBG reported: China Says Will Hold Trade Talks by Phone with U.S. in Two Weeks

At 9:49 ET, BBG reported: U.S. Delays 10% Tariff on Certain Chines Imports until Dec. 15

The above headlines generated a 57handle ESU rally in 17 minutes (66 handles above session low).

If the trade talk by phone headline sounds familiar to you, you’re right.

US-China trade talks to resume by phone in coming week, Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow says       July 4, 2019

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3017190/us-china-trade-talks-resume-phone-coming-week-donald-trumps-chief

@niubi: Remarkable cave by trump on his tariff threat from early August. The message to Beijing is trump can’t hold firm because of worries voters may get unhappy with more expensive holiday goods. So why would Beijing make concessions?

Cramer: China tariff tweaks signal that Trump does not want the stock market to drop any further

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/cramer-china-tariff-tweaks-signal-trump-wants-to-halt-stock-drop.html

Team Trump also knows that it’s expiry week and they can get the most bang for their BS now.  Regardless of the joy on The Street, Trump’s caving on tariffs while Hong Kong protestors are being bloodied by Xi’s forces is DEPLORABLE – the optics and politics are probably even worse.

ESUs rolled over on this: @realDonaldTrump: As usual, China said they were going to be buying “big” from our great American Farmers. So far they have not done what they said. Maybe this will be different!

ESUs and stocks then traded sideways into the close.  Gamblers waited for the next roll of the DJT dice.  When DJT didn’t run his mouth in the afternoon, ESUs and stocks declined during the final hour.

@CNBC: Trump says he delayed tariffs because of concerns over Christmas shopping season

[Bull!  DJT knows that he screwed up big-time by caving on the tariffs.]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/trump-says-he-delayed-tariffs-because-of-concerns-over-christmas-shopping-season.html

U.S. Core Inflation Hits Six-Month High in Broad-Based Gain

The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3 per cent from the prior month, and 2.2 per cent from a year earlier… Both gains exceeded the median estimates of economists, while the broader CPI advanced 0.3 per cent on the month and 1.8 per cent annually…

Tariffs on a wide range of consumer products imported from China, set to take effect Sept. 1, may boost inflation further… Shelter costs, which make up about a third of total CPI, rose 0.3 per cent for a second month, while medical care was up 0.5 per cent, apparel advanced 0.4 per cent and used cars and trucks rose 0.9 per cent.  Prices for new vehicles fell 0.2 per cent, the first decline since February.

Energy prices rose 1.3 per cent from the prior month as gasoline prices increased 2.5 per cent…

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-core-inflation-hits-six-month-high-in-broad-based-gain-1.1300839

@Schuldensuehner: US core inflation at 6mth high may limit Fed moves. And maybe this is the reason why Trump has delayed 10% China tariffs as US consumers feeling the brunt of the trade war.

@ inflation_guy: CPI for health insurance continued to surge, now up 15.88% y/y.Remember, this is a residual, but I think that means it may signal changes that the BLS hasn’t picked up yet. It’s the highest on record…

Core Goods was +0.40% y/y. Wait, what?? About time! HIGHEST Y/Y CORE GOODS SINCE 2013. The persistent-deflation-in-goods narrative just took a hickey… Core goods. This is really where the story is, and where it’s likely to be going forward. A reminder here about how long the inflation process can take! Folks were looking for tariff effects the moment they went into effect. But businesses wait-and-see first…    Core Goods Inflation Chart: https://twitter.com/inflation_guy/status/1161265586334253057?s=09

M_McDonough: Contributions to Percent Change in U.S. CPI: (most of it is shelter, followed by medical services) Chart: https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/1161266666589839360?s=09

After the June CPI report, we opined that July CPI could be higher than expected because of the surge in gasoline prices.  Now, we must aver that due to cascading energy prices, August CPI should be lower.

Middle Class Death Spiral: Consumers Have Never Been in More Debt, and Bankruptcies Are Surging – Record American household debt, near $14 trillion including mortgages and student loans, is some $1 trillion higher than during the Great Recession of 2008. Credit card debt of $1 trillion also exceeds the 2008 peak…

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/middle-class-death-spiral-consumers-have-never-been-in-more-debt-and-bankruptcies-are-surging

Google Insider Turns over 950 Pages of Docs and Laptop to DOJ – A former Google insider claiming the company created algorithms to hide its political biaswithin artificial intelligence platforms…

https://saraacarter.com/exclusive-google-insider-turns-over-950-pages-of-docs-and-laptop-to-doj/

Investor behind Illinois Bond Suit Made Short Bet Tied to Case, Funds Claim

  • Nuveen, AllianceBernstein say Warlander bought default swaps
  • Warlander filed lawsuit seeking to void Illinois debt in court

Warlander and the chief executive officer of the Illinois Policy Institute, a conservative think tank, sued Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, saying the state’s 2003 pension bonds and 2017 debt sold to pay bills were deficit financings prohibited by the state constitution. Both issues were done before Pritzker took office this year…A hearing in the circuit court of Sangamon County Thursday may determine if the lawsuit, filed July 1, has standing or should be thrown out…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-12/investor-behind-illinois-bond-suit-made-short-bet-funds-claim

Senate Dems deliver stunning warning to Supreme Court: ‘Heal’ or face restructuring

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/senate-dems-deliver-stunning-warning-to-supreme-court-heal-or-face-restructuring

Leftist Dems’ attempt to intimidate the SCOTUS to rule its way is sickening and disturbing.  But, it could backfire in a huge way.  Can you imagine the MSM outrage if conservative GOPers tried this?

Today is Weird Wednesday, the day that usually contains the peak intensity of the expiry manipulation.  Barring impact news, Weird Wednesday should be far tamer than Trump’s cave-in rally yesterday.

Given the news-induced volatile moves on Monday and Tuesday, traders should be cautious today.  The usual suspects will probe and play the usual time-of-day patterns; but wiser guys will probably stay away.

Please note that the S&P 500 Index peaked at 2943.31 on Tuesday, a few cents above its 50-day MA.  The same peaking near the 50 DMA occurred last Thursday.  Obviously, Traders will be sensitive to how the S&P 500 Index acts today when it is near its 50 DMA.  PS – Breadth was poor for such an explosive rally.  @hmeisler:There were more new lows than new highs for Naz today [Tuesday]

The yuan reference rate is 7.0312 (7.041exp).  ESUs rallied 2.75 on the news; the rally reversed quickly.

Barr Removes Warden of Epstein’s NYC Jail, Suspends Two Staffers

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-13/attorney-general-barr-removes-warden-of-jail-where-epstein-died

CBS: Jeffrey Epstein death: Shrieking heard from jail cell the morning he died at Metropolitan Correctional Center – shouting and shrieking from his jail cell

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeffrey-epstein-death-shrieking-heard-jail-cell-morning-he-died-metropolitan-correctional-center/

Jeffrey Epstein’s Death Was On 4Chan [38 min] Before Officials Announced It — and Authorities Had To Look Into It https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/janelytvynenko/fdny-review-jeffrey-epstein-4chan-post

 

James Stewart in NYT: The Day Jeffrey Epstein Told Me He Had Dirt on Powerful People

On Aug. 16, 2018, I visited Jeffrey Epstein at his cavernous Manhattan mansion…

    He said he’d witnessed prominent tech figures taking drugs and arranging for sex

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/12/business/jeffrey-epstein-interview.html

@CNBC: President Trump said “I have no idea” if former President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton were somehow involved in the death of Jeffrey Epstein, the wealthy financier who died last weekend after an apparent jailhouse suicide.  https://cnb.cx/31u2if0

Trump is slipping.  He lost a golden opportunity to invoke the Mueller Standard and assert that ‘he can’t exonerate the Clintons’.

 

Biden camp says verbal stumbles are just ‘Joe being Joe’   https://trib.al/nLun6Pk

 

@marc_lotter: 58% of households headed by a non-citizen use at least one welfare program…    @nedryun: And the stat goes up to 70% of households headed by a non-citizen being on some form of welfare if they’ve been here 10 yrs or more. Over time the stats get worse, not better

 

Op-ed in WaPo: I used to think gun control was the answer. My research told me otherwise.

My colleagues and I at FiveThirtyEight [Liberal polling/stats firm] spent three months analyzing all 33,000 lives ended by guns each year in the United States, and I wound up frustrated in a whole new way.

    Two-thirds of gun deaths in the United States every year are suicides… the next-largest set of gun deaths — 1 in 5 — were young men aged 15 to 34, killed in homicides. These men were most likely to die at the hands of other young men, often related to gang loyalties or other street violence. And the last notable group of similar deaths was the 1,700 women murdered per year, usually as the result of domestic violence. Far more people were killed in these ways than in mass-shooting incidents, but few of the popularly floated policies were tailored to serve them…

    Older men, who make up the largest share of gun suicides, need better access to people who could care for them and get them help. Women endangered by specific men need to be prioritized by police, who can enforce restraining orders prohibiting these men from buying and owning guns. Younger men at risk of violence need to be identified before they take a life or lose theirs and to be connected to mentors who can help them de-escalate conflicts…   https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/i-used-to-think-gun-control-was-the-answer-my-research-told-me-otherwise/2017/10/03/d33edca6-a851-11e7-92d1-58c702d2d975_story.html

 

News that the MSM will ignore because it tarnishes their ideological brethren:

 

ICE blames overnight shootings on politicians, media and activists as suspects on loose

Investigators say that multiple shots were fired on two floors targeting ICE officials… “Political rhetoric and misinformation that various politicians, media outlets and activist groups recklessly disseminate to the American people regarding the ICE mission only serve to further encourage these violent acts….”

https://news4sanantonio.com/news/local/suspect-arrested-after-allegedly-firing-shots-at-ice-office

Well that is all for today

I will see you Thursday night.

 

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