AUGUST 15/RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER FAIL AGAIN EVEN THOUGH THE DOW REGAINS 100 POINTS OF ITS LOSS YESTERDAY: GOLD UP $3.55 TO $1520.75//SILVER LOSES 2 CENTS TO $15.24//GLD GETS BACK A HUGE 7.63 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LOST YESTERDAY..WHAT CROOKS!!//VOLUMES AT THE SILVER COMEX ARE BECOMING SURREAL AT 100,00 PLUS EVERY SINGLE TRADING DAY//CHINA’S MOUTHPIECE IS HOPING THAT TRUMP WILL MEET CHINA HALF WAY: TRUMP STATES IT IS EITHER HIS WAY OR NO WAY//ECB PLANNING A MAJOR STIMULUS IN SEPTEMBER AND THAT FRIGHTENED THE EUROPEAN BANKS AND THE EURO:THIS WOULD PUT EUROPE DEEPLY INTO NEGATIVE RATES AND THUS GOOD FOR GOLD AND SILVER//ARGENTINA TOTALLY COLLAPSES WITH THE PESO OVER 60 TO ONE AND THE BOND PRICES FALTER TERRIBLY//JEFFEREY EPSTEIN MOST LIKELY WAS STRANGLED AND THUS NOT A SUICIDE..MORE TESTS NEED TO BE DONE//

GOLD:$1520.75  UP $3.55(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver: $17.24 DOWN 2 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1523.50

 

silver:  $17.27

it seems that our bankers have a derivative problem around $1520 gold and $1720 silver.
another problem for the bankers is the extreme volumes witnessing silver at well over 100,000 contracts.  e.g, confirmed volume yesterday is 132,573 contracts which equals 662 million oz or 94.6 % of annual silver production ex China ex Russia.  Commodity law states that we should have only 3% of any commodity represented in the future.  The risk of course is if a major buyer or sovereign takes the crooks up on their offer of Exchange for Physicals and actually asks for physical metal.

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 342/749

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 749 NOTICE(S) FOR 74900 OZ (2.3297 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  5201 NOTICES FOR 520,100 OZ  (16.177 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

138 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 690,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1946 for   9,730,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9870 UP 109 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10,104 UP 47

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL  SIZED 744 CONTRACTS FROM 233,839 DOWN TO 233,095DESPITE THE STRONG  27 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT: 2700, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2700 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2700 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2700 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.50 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 27 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

9.770   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY WITH SOME SUCCESS..AND WE HAD LITTLE IF ANY SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

22,330 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 22,320 CONTRACTS) OR 111.600 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2029 CONTRACTS OR 10.24 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  111.600 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 15.94% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1424.155   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 744, DESPITE THE 27 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2700 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG  SIZED: 1956 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2700 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 744  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 27 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.26 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.168 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 167% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 138 NOTICE(S) FOR 690,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

AND NOW WE ARE WITHIN A WHISKER OF ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,169  BUT THIS TIME  THE PRICE OF SILVER YESTERDAY WAS $17.18 AND HIGHER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

 

 

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 9.770 MILLION OZ
  2. CLOSE TO THE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 244,169 CONTRACTS (OR 1.228 BILLION OZ/, THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4944 CONTRACTS, TO 598,906 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG $13.60 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// //THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION OPERATION HAS NOW COMMENCED  ONLY FOR SILVER AS LITTLE WAS ACCOMPLISHED IN THAT ENDEAVOUR TODAY….. THE LIQUIDATION( AND ACCUMULATION) PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD HAS NOW STOPPED FOR THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7414 CONTRACTS:

AUGUST 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  7414 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 598,906,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,358 CONTRACTS: 4944 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7414 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 12,358 CONTRACTS OR 1,235,800 OZ OR 38.44 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $13.60 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT GOOD GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 38.44  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.THERE WAS NO APPRECIABLE SHORT COVERING IN THE GOLD COMEX ARENA AS MANY OF THE LONGS DEMANDING METAL JUST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 132,256 CONTRACTS OR 13,225,600 oz OR 411.37 TONNES (11 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 12,033 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 411.37 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 411.37/3550 x 100% TONNES =11.58% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3922.60  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4944 WITH THE STRONG  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($13.60)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7414 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7414 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG  SIZED GAIN OF 12,358 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7,414 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4944 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 38,44 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.60 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED WITH SPREADING ACCUMULATION OF SILVER OI CONTRACTS IN THIS MONTH OF AUGUST BUT ZERO OCCURRED YESTERDAY.. ALL SPREADING ACTIVITY IN GOLD HAS STOPPED DURING THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  749 notice(s) filed upon for 74,900 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

WE GOT BACK 7.63 PAPER TONNES OUT OF 11.11 LOST YESTERDAY

(A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

ANOTHER WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT INTO THE SLV

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 744 CONTRACTS from 233,839 DOWN TO 233,095 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORDED HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET EXCEPT TODAY AS WE HAD A RISING PRICE..OUR SHORT DERIVATIVE BANKERS ARE NOW IN DEEP TROUBLE AS THEY ARE TERRIBLY OFFSIDE AND NEED ASSISTANCE FROM THE GOVERNMENT (FED) TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY COLLATERAL TO CARRY THAT SHORT POSITION…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST, ALTHOUGH NEGLIGIBLE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY, AND THEY STOPPED ALL  SPREADING ACTIVITY  IN COMEX GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 2700  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2700 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 744  CONTRACTS TO THE 2700 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1956 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9.78 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST AT 9.770 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 27 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2700 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.88 POINTS OR 0.25%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 193.18 POINTS OR 0.76%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 249.49 POINTS OR 1.21%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.80%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0399 /Oil UP TO 54.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.30 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0399 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0555 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

a)This occurred prior to the Chinese comment that they hope that the USA will go half way in dealing with them.

Prior to that China rejects Trump’s tariff olive branch and they vow imminent retaliation against the Chinese.  This still stands.

(zerohedge)

b)Hong Kong activist leaders calls for a run on Chinese banks and if that would happen it would destroy their banking system

(Watson/Summit News)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The big European banks did not like this:  an ECB official says that new stimulus measures is coming in Sept and they “may overshoot”.  The Euro stumbles and so does the banks.

 

(zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Israel/USA

Israel has perfected its Iron Dome and now they have inked a deal with the uSA

(zerohedge)

ii)No decision on whether Israel will allow Tlaib and Omar into the country

(zerohedge)
Late in the day, the Israel stopped the two from entering
(zerohedge)

iii)Iran/Gibraltar

Judge in Gibraltar rules the seized Iranian tanker is free to go.  The USA is doing everything they can to stop the ship from leaving.
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Argentina

Argentina basically collapses as its Peso is now over 60 pesos per dollar.  The next big Argentina bond which is partly owned by Pimco has fallen badly and with a yield north of 50%, it will surely default

(zeorhedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)We brought this to your attention yesterday and it is worth repeating;  the USA treasury bond curve inverts entirely for the first time since 2007

(Reuters/GATA)

ii)We also brought this to your attention:  China is curbing gold imports for its citizens as it wants to stem the flow of cash leaving China

(Reuters)

iii)Murphy, Rule, Hemke and David Morgan discuss gold and silver

(GATA)

iv)An excellent podcast from Schiff

(Schiff)

v)Nicholas B on the fraudulent EFP issuance

(courtesy Nicholas B)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

i)USA 30 yr bond yields tumbles to 1.98%..first time ever

(zerohedge)

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/MORNING

I)Absolute nonsense:  futures suddenly explode higher on supposed Chinese conciliatory headline

These guys continue to talk and you need the newspaper to jolt futures.. the yuan hardly budged.

(zerohedge)

ii)That did not last long:  Trump comments that China must do a deal on his terms and they will not do a deal half way. Dow reverses but the algos are trying to keep this thing into the green

(zerohedge)

ii)Market data/USA

a)Retail sales surge in July but this was mainly due to Amazon’s |Prime Day

b)(zerohedge)

b)Soft data, Philly and Empire beat expectations supposedly confirming an economic rebound.  I would not trust the data(zerohedge)

c)This is the far more important data points.  Hard data USA manufacturing slumps back into contraction

(zerohedge)

 

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The whistleblower who told the authorities about Madoff, writes that GE is a bankruptcy waiting to happen

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)The odds of Epstein being murdered is now elevated as they found that the hyoid bone was broken in many places.  This generally happens in strangulation and not hanging.  They will need to find out the length of the drop from the top of the bunk bed and the strength of the sheets to confirm

(zerohedge)

b)Where is Ghislaine?

(zerohedge)

c) Ghislaine Maxwell spotted in LA(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4944 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 599,693 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN  OF $13.60 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7414 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 7414   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7414 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 12,358 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7414 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4944 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE GOLD PRICE. WE EXPERIENCED ZERO SHORT COVERING IN GOLD AS  LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS TRYING THEIR LUCK ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND LOOKING FOR METAL.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  12,358 CONTRACTS OR 1,235,800 OZ OR 38.44 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 1831 CONTRACTS as we LOST 236 contract.  We had 0 notices filed yesterday so we LOST  236 contracts or 23,600 oz of gold that will NOT stand for delivery AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THESE GUYS HAVE MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND WILL TRY THEIR LUCK OVER THERE.

The next non active month is September and here the OI FELL by 231 contracts UP TO 3429.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI ROSE by 495 contracts UP to 49,051.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 749 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  74,900 OZ. (2.3297 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 749CONTRACTS FROM 233,839 DOWN TO 233,095  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196, CONTRACTS AND TODAY’S SMALL  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG 27 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.WE HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER YESTERDAY AS AGAIN SOMETHING IS DRAMATICALLY SCARING OUR BANKER SHORTS.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 140 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 41 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 73 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A FULL 32 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 160,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 2889 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 113,808 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 9 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 186.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 1843 CONTRACTS UP TO 84,797.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 138 notice(s) filed for 690,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 409,781  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  509,715  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 15/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
749 notice(s)
 74,900 OZ
(2.3297 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1082 contracts
(108200 oz)
3.365 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5201 notices
520,100 OZ
16.177 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0- deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/  TODAY: no amount  arrived

 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

i) we had 2 adjustments today
a) Out of Delaware:  494.519 oz was adjusted out of the customer and into the dealer Delaware
b) Out of HSBC :  71,761.032 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of HSBC
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 749 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 342 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5201) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (1831 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (749 x 100 oz per contract) equals 628,300 OZ OR 19.54 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (5201 x 100 oz)  + (1831)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (749 x 100 oz )which equals 628,300 oz standing OR 19.54 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We LOST 236  contracts or an additional 23,600 oz will NOT stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus. It is very obvious to all that there is no gold present as the gold comex and thus the reason that we are seeing longs exit their positions over here for a position over in London.

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 18.2606 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 19.54  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// JUDGING BY THE HUGE SIZE OF THE COMEX NOTICES FILED TODAY, IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEBODY IS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE CROOKS AT THE COMEX.

total registered or dealer gold:  587,078.904 oz or  18.2606 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,850,468.880 oz 244.18 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 34 MONTHS 113 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

 

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 15 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 51,748.997 oz
CNT
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
534,366.800 oz
CNT

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
71,876.300 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
138
CONTRACT(S)
(690,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts
 10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1946 contracts

9,730,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into CNT: 534,366.800 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 534,366.800  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT:  71,876.300 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  71,876.300  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  49,805.647 oz

ii) Out of Brinks; 1943.35 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 51,748.997  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

total dealer silver:  92.835 million

total dealer + customer silver:  312.617 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 138 contract(s) FOR 690,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1946 x 5,000 oz = 9,760,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (140) and the number of notices served upon today (138) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1946 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (140)- number of notices served upon today (138)x 5000 oz equals 9,740,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.  

 

WE GAINED A STRONG 32 CONTRACTS  AS THE DEALERS BYPASSED THOSE STANDING TRYING TO GRAB WHATEVER SILVER THEY CAN. WE THUS HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 32 CONTRACTS OR 160,000 ADDITIONAL OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THESE GUYS REFUSED AN OFFER FROM THE BANKERS TO ROLL TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AND THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS FOR NOT ACCEPTING THIS CROOKED CONTRACT.BOTH COMEX GOLD AND SILVER ARE UNDER ATTACK FOR PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS THE TRUE DEFINITION OF QUEUE JUMPING BY THE BANKERS AS THEY SATISFY THEIR URGENT NEEDS OVER THE NEEDS OF INVESTORS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 138 notice(s) filed for 690,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  103,613 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 132,573 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 132,573 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 662 million  OZ 94.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.70% ((AUGUST 15/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.20% to NAV (AUGUST 15/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -/70%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.09 TRADING 14.87/DISCOUNT 3.42

 

 

 

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.50: A HUGE INVENTORY WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LEAVES THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 818.14 TONNES

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO NGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

 

 

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AUGUST 15/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 844.29 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 643 TRADING DAYS: 91.11 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 543- TRADING DAYS: A NET 75.43 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 26.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:  A HUGE 1.03 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER LEAVES THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 357.183 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

 

AUGUST 15/2019:

 

Inventory 380.154 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.16/ and libor 6 month duration 2.08

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .08

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.93%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.03

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.10

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold At 2013 Highs Of $1,523/oz As Trump Calls The Fed “Clueless” and “Crazy” and Links Trade Wars to Hong Kong

* Gold prices consolidated today, after gold gained nearly 1% yesterday on safe-haven buying as stocks globally fell yesterday and today.

* The historic drop in long-term U.S. bond yields could portend a global recession which is impacting risk assets and seeing investors diversify into gold.

* China has curbed gold imports according to anonymous sources in western bullion banks as reported by Reuters (see below).

* Ordinarily, one would expect a pullback in gold after the recent rapid gains but these are far from ordinary times. Trump’s Presidency, trade wars, Brexit and other risks mean that gold could go higher before correcting lower.

* The wider economic, monetary and geopolitical backdrop will support safe haven assets and investors without an allocation to the precious metal should cost average into physical gold

Gold marks highest finish since 2013 as recession risk lifts the metal’s haven appeal

Gold rises as global recession fears lift safe-haven appeal

Exclusive: China curbs gold imports as trade war heats up

Dow tanks 800 points in worst day of 2019 after bond market sends recession warning

Stocks, oil tank on growing signs of global slowdown

Gold in USD – Monthly – 10 Years

Trump Calls the Fed “Clueless” and “Crazy”

U.S. 30-Year Yield Falls to Record Low and Curve Warns of Recession

Yield curve inversion shows Fed needs to cut rates: Trump adviser

Trump warns ‘good man’ Xi to treat Hong Kong humanely or risk trade deal

Trump Linking Trade to Hong Kong Risks Playing Into Xi’s Hands

 

Listen and Watch Jim Rogers Interview Here

Gold Prices via LBMA (AM/ PM Fix – USD, GBP & EUR)

14-Aug-19 1500.35 1513.25, 1241.69 1253.73 & 1341.61 1356.17
13-Aug-19 1527.20 1498.40, 1265.90 1240.38 & 1363.48 1338.67
12-Aug-19 1501.95 1504.70, 1244.82 1243.63 & 1343.64 1341.74
09-Aug-19 1503.50 1497.70, 1242.19 1240.99 & 1342.02 1338.05
08-Aug-19 1497.40 1495.75, 1230.26 1234.14 & 1335.08 1335.70
07-Aug-19 1487.65 1506.05, 1225.82 1239.33 & 1330.11 1341.44
06-Aug-19 1461.85 1465.25, 1199.59 1201.21 & 1304.85 1311.11
05-Aug-19 1457.45 1465.25, 1199.92 1203.85 & 1307.92 1310.23
02-Aug-19 1436.05 1441.75, 1184.17 1187.28 & 1294.02 1298.44
01-Aug-19 1406.40 1406.80, 1161.12 1161.74 & 1273.35 1273.29

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

 

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Exclusive-Offer-Swiss-Flag-B-1024x576.jpg
Buy, Transfer & Store Gold and Silver in Zurich, Switzerland – Six Months Free Storage

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

We brought this to your attention yesterday and it is worth repeating;  the USA treasury bond curve inverts entirely for the first time since 2007

(Reuters/GATA)

U.S. Treasury bond curve inverts for first time since 2007 in recession warning

 Section: 

From Reuters
Wednesday, August 14, 2019

LONDON — The U.S. Treasury bond yield curve inverted on Wednesday for the first time since 2007, in a sign of investor concern that the world’s biggest economy could be heading for recession.

The inversion — a situation where shorter-dated borrowing costs are higher than longer ones — saw U.S. 2-year note yields rise above the 10-year bond yield.

… 

The curve inverted to as much as minus 1.7 basis points by 10″45 GMT.

Such an inversion, considered a classic recession signal, occurred last in June 2007 when the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis was gathering pace. The U.S. curve has inverted before every recession in the past 50 years, offering a false signal just once in that time. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-us-bonds-curve/u-s-treasury-bond-curv…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

We also brought this to your attention:  China is curbing gold imports for its citizens as it wants to stem the flow of cash leaving China

(Reuters)

China curbs gold imports as trade war heats up, sources tell Reuters

 Section: 

From Reuters
Wednesday, August 14, 2019

China has severely restricted imports of gold since May, bullion industry sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters, in a move that could be aimed at curbing outflows of dollars and bolstering its yuan currency as economic growth slows.

… 

The world’s second largest economy has cut shipments by some 300-500 tonnes compared with last year — worth $15-25 billion at current prices, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to the media.

The restrictions come as an escalating trade confrontation with the United States has dragged China’s pace of growth to the slowest in nearly three decades and pressured the yuan to its lowest since 2008.

China is the world’s biggest importer of gold, sucking in around 1,500 tonnes of metal worth some $60 billion last year, according to its customs data — equivalent to a third of the world’s total supply. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-gold-exclusive/exclusive-china-…

END

Murphy, Rule, Hemke and David Morgan discuss gold and silver

(GATA)

Murphy, Rule, Hemke, and Morgan interviewed by Phil Kennedy

 Section: 

3:39p ET Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Philip Kennedy of Kennedy Financial today puts together a panel discussion of GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, Rick Rule of Sprott Holdings U.S., Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, and Dave Morgan of Silver-Investor.com, and they all seem very encouraged about the prospects for gold and especially silver. The discussion is 46 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x518eQVuStA&feature=youtu.be

end

An excellent podcast from Schiff

(Schiff)

Schiff: The World Will Drown In An Ocean Of Inflation; Gold Is Going Ballistic

Via SchiffGold.com,

The gold market took a one-two punch on Tuesday as Trump made some concessions in the trade war and inflation numbers came in a bit higher than expected. Peter Schiff talked about it in his latest podcast, saying gold traders still don’t understand the gold rally.

Stock markets surged as gold and silver dropped after US trade representatives said they would delay some of the additional tariffs recently announced by President Trump. The Dow closed 372 points higher (before collapsing back 800 points lower yesterday). Meanwhile, the price of gold dropped below $1,500 briefly before rallying back above that key number.

Gold actually began selling off before the trade war news when the Consumer Price Index number came in hotter than expected. Peter said he knew that would happen.

That is the way the lemmings trade, because according to the conventional wisdom, if inflation is higher, then the Fed will be less likely to cut rates. After all, they’re cutting rates because inflation is too low and if inflation comes in hotter, well, then there’s less of a reason for the Fed to cut rates. So paradoxically, higher inflation is seen as being bad for gold. And the reason I’m saying paradoxically is because gold is an inflation hedge. Normally, the more inflation the more you want to buy gold.”

Peter said investors are banking on the Fed fighting inflation, but they’re wrong.

There is no way the Fed is going to fight inflation. I don’t care how high it is … One of these days the traders have to realize that these numbers don’t matter. I mean, maybe they matter to the public who has to live with a rising cost of living. But they don’t matter to the Fed. The Fed is going to take rates back to zero no matter what these numbers are, because the economy is going into recession even as inflation rises.

Peter said eventually traders will figure it out and start buying gold when they see inflation rising and the Fed sitting on the sidelines.

As far as the trade war announcement goes, Peter said it just shows that Trump was bluffing when he announced more tariffs. He said he thinks it makes the president look very weak.

This trade war is lost. The only question is when do we surrender and how do we admit defeat.Again, I don’t think we’re going to get any kind of deal.”

Meanwhile, the mainstream is starting to talk about a looming recession. They are also calling for the Fed to cut rates and go back to QE. Peter said they still don’t get it. They don’t understand that this time around is not going to be like QE1, QE2, and QE3 where everybody made money.

I understood from the beginning that the Fed’s plan could not succeed, that they could never normalize rates, that they would have to go back to zero, that they could never shrink their balance sheet, that they would have to call it off and do more QE, because I understood the problem back then, and I still understand the problem now, and I understand the consequences.”

Peter noted that New Zealand’s central bank recently cut its interest rate by 50 basis points, basically in an effort to preemptively keep inflation from dropping below its target level. He pointed out that nobody wants a strong currency.

Everybody is weakening their currency to create more inflation. Well, what’s going to happen? The world is going to drown in an ocean of inflation and gold is going ballistic.”

Peter said the fact that gold sold off on trade war news indicates traders don’t really get it.

The people who are selling gold don’t get it. Gold is not going up because of the tariffs. Gold is going up because of what the reserve bank in New Zealand did and because that’s what all the central banks are doing …

Every central bank has bought into this nonsense that we must have inflation and that interest rates need to be negative. Inflation needs to be high enough to have real negative rates all over the globe. That’s where we are heading. So, if that is the case, people have no place to hide except gold and that is why they’re buying.

Peter said ultimately we are going to have a global currency crisis – a US dollar crisis – because it is at the epicenter of the global fiat monetary system.

end

 

iii) Other physical stories:

Just look at the potential liability of the banks with respect to Exchange for physicals:

an email from Nicholas to me:

(courtesy Nicholas)

Hi Harvey,

In the attached file I have started to record, from 12th July onwards, the summary of the daily report from the CME gold and silver depositories. Not one ounce of registered gold or silver has left the Comex between 12th July until yesterday and only 0.2 tonnes of eligible gold.

*More from Nicholas…

Too LenientHi Bill,

I listened to your round table discussion this morning.I believe that some of the participants were too pessimistic about the prospects of silver just because JP Morgan has 150 million troy ounces (primarily in the eligible category).

Assume these EFPs remain unredeemed claims. Then the profile of total potential claims looks like:

Regards

 

Nicholas

 

end

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0399/ PAST  7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.05555   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 6.88 POINTS OR 0.25%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 193.18 POINTS OR 0.76%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 249.48 POINTS OR 1.21%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.89/Euro RISES TO 1.1153

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.23/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 54.39 and Brent: 58.30

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.67%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.48% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.12%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.15: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.05

3k Gold at $1514.20 silver at: 17.17   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 24/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.31

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 58 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.99 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9744 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0865 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.67%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.54% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.98%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.5896..

US Futures Slide, Yields Plunge After China Spurn Trump, Vows Retaliation

For the 4th day in a row the pattern of a stronger risk open following by a sharp drift lower in both asset prices and yields has re-emerged, much to the frustration of BTFDers.

Global stocks opened for trading on the right foot, with US equity futures initially rising despite 30Y yields falling to all time lows below 2.00% late on Thursday, after several late evening tweets by Trump seemed to indicate further conciliation between the US and China in the ongoing trade war while the PBOC finally fixed the yuan slightly stronger at  7.0268, vs 7.0312 one day before, if slightly weaker than expected 7.0236. However, it all ended with a bang, with S&P futures falling hard, and signaling another weak open for U.S. stocks, which fell 3% on Wednesday on rising recession fears …

 

… and European stocks slumping after China stepped up its trade-war rhetoric, vowing imminent retaliation against the US, and roiling markets that had been starting to calm. The result: US traders walking in to another sea of red.

 

Treasuries and European bonds rallied, with the 10Y yield sliding further, and dropping as low as 1.51% while the 30Y dropped deeper into record territory, sliding as low as 1.95%, a new all time low.

“The only game in town is the central banks, hence the bond markets are rallying,” said Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets. We have regional bonfires in Hong Kong, Argentina, Japan against South Korea, and none of these are going away easily; each and every one is not necessarily strong enough to cause trouble.

As widely discussed on Wednesday, recession fears grew on Wednesday after the 2s10s TSY spread inverted for the first time in 12 years, when the same yield curve inversion presaged the 2008 recession, and pretty much every other recession in the past 50 years.

 

“We have seen stocks trading very poorly as a result of the yield curve inversion, so that will be flashing some additional warning lights for the Fed that they have to do more,” said Andrea Iannelli, investment director at Fidelity International. The only question is, can the Fed out-dove the market? At the very least they will have to match market expectations in the short term.”

So far the Fed is failing to out-dove the market, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined, led by energy and health-care firms, after an inverted Treasury yield curve spurred worries over a possible recession. Country benchmarks were mixed, with Australia falling and Hong Kong advancing, while trading volume jumped across the region. Japan’s Topix retreated 1% to a seven-month low, as electronic firms and retail giants weighed on the gauge. The Shanghai Composite Index reversed earlier losses to close 0.3% higher, with Ping An Insurance and Foxconn Industrial Internet among the biggest boosts. China’s central bank added liquidity to the financial system amid prolonged trade tensions with the U.S.

After initially trading higher, Europe’s Stoxx 600 slumped as much as 0.5%, erasing earlier gains, after China’s surprise warning it would have to take countermeasures after the latest trade war salvo. The Chinese comments sent London and Frankfurt lost over 1%.

Meanwhile, in rates German 30-year yields dipped below minus 0.2% for the first time. Ten-year yields touched a record low of minus 0.67% with Sept. bund futures rising +25 ticks to 178.56; France 10y -1bp to -0.38%; Italy 10y +1bps to 1.51% Also notable: Europe’s 50Y swap rate turned negative for the first time ever.

 

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, and as noted above, Treasuries outperformed bunds, while core bonds lead gains over semi-core peers and curves flatten. Italian bonds are steady with futures volumes running at less than half the 10-day average. Gilts rose amid haven buying even as U.K. retail sales for July beat the median estimate.

What sent the U.S. curve over the brink into inversion was German data on Wednesday that showed the economy had contracted in the quarter to June. That came on the heels of dire Chinese data for July. The British yield curve also inverted. The German curve is at its flattest since 2008.

The growth panic comes amid economic stress in Argentina and some other emerging markets, fears of Chinese military intervention in Hong Kong and trade tensions that show no sign of abating.

“Hoping for the best on the policy front but positioning for the worst on the economic backdrop seems to be the flavor of the day,” said Stephen Innes, a managing partner at Valour Markets. “The Fed, now out of necessity alone, will need to adjust policy much more profoundly than they expected.”

In FX, the dollar index .DXY was down at 97.862, with the euro – which has now emerged a carry funding and safe haven currency just like the yen – up at $1.1155; and speaking of the yen, it was flat at 105.8 to the dollar having earlier traded at 106.74. The currency has gained against the dollar for eight of the past 10 sessions. Excluding a mini-crash episode in January, it recently hit 17-month highs. The pound traded near the day’s high as U.K. retail sales data for July unexpectedly rose; Australia’s dollar bounced back from Wednesday’s sell-off after employment beat forecasts and damped bets on a central bank rate cut next month

In commodities, oil prices plunged with Brent crude LCOc1 losing another 2% to $58.4 a barrel, after shedding 3% overnight. Safe-haven gold was up 0.3% at $1,520 per ounce XAU=, just off recent six-year highs.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 2,863.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.07% to 366.41
  • MXAP down 0.9% to 149.84
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 483.27
  • Nikkei down 1.2% to 20,405.65
  • Topix down 1% to 1,483.85
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 25,495.46
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2,815.80
  • Sensex up 1% to 37,311.53
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.9% to 6,408.09
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 1,938.37
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to -0.655%
  • Euro up 0.06% to $1.1146
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 10.9 bps to 1.156%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 0.147%
  • Brent futures down 1.5% to $58.60/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,519.56
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.94

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China called planned U.S. tariffs on an additional $300 billion in Chinese goods a violation of accords reached by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, signaling its intention to impose retaliatory measures
  • The recession alarm bell ringing in U.S. government bond markets sent investors rushing once more to haven assets, pushing the world’s stockpile of negative-yielding bonds to another record
  • The inverted yield curve looks set to be a global phenomenon, with major Asian debt markets primed to mirror the moves in Treasuries as fears grow that the world economy is teetering on the brink of a recession
  • Germany Inc.’s outlook for the rest of the year is filled with gloom, suggesting a recession could be in the cards. Companies from Europe’s largest economy lead the list of profit warnings issued in the region during the latest earnings season

Asian equity markets conformed to the rout seen on Wall St. where all major indices fell around 3% and the DJIA slumped 800 points in its worst performance YTD after recent weak data from China and Germany, with recession fears also stoked after the US 2s/10s curve inverted for the first time since 2007. ASX 200 (-2.9%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.2%) were lower in which the energy sector led the declines in both indices after similar underperformance stateside following a near-5% drop in crude prices and with Australia mulling over a slew of earnings releases, although gold stocks have bucked the trend as the stock sell-off spurred safe-haven appeal. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were heavily pressured at the open but with downside later stemmed after continued PBoC liquidity efforts in which it injected CNY 30bln through reverse repos and CNY 400bln through 1yr MLF, while reports that Hong Kong Airport resumed normal operations and with strength in China Unicom post-earnings helped soften the blow for Hong Kong which briefly turned positive. However, the recovery in the Hang Seng was short-lived due to the broad risk averse tone and with losses in index heavyweight Tencent following mixed earnings and a cautious outlook. Finally, 10yr JGBs printed fresh highs as the global recession fears spurred a safe-haven bid, which saw the 10yr, 20yr and 30yr JGB yields at their lowest in more than 3 years. This coincided with the US 2s/10s yields winding in and out of inversion and the US 30yr yield dropping below 2% for the first time on record, while mild support was also seen following stronger results at the 5yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong and China Stocks Rise in Shadow of Global Growth Fears
  • China Border Agents Probe Hong Kong Travelers’ Personal Devices
  • Chinese Champion Huawei Under Fire for Calling Taiwan a Country

Major European indices were initially firmer at the open but following negative updates on the US-China trade front, a further bout of risk off swept through markets [Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%], on reports that China’s Finance Ministry say China will have to take countermeasures on US moves and their actions violate the consensus achieved at the Osaka G20 meeting. No notable over/under performers amongst indices which are all firmly in negative territory following the aforementioned US-China update, but as a reminder Italy’s equity markets are closed due to Assumption Day. Sectors are posting a slightly mixed performance but have also dropped firmly into negative territory, Energy names are lagging as oil prices remain under pressure with the added factor of Iran’s Grace 1 tanker reportedly to be released today; though the US Department of Justice are trying to seize the tanker. Also factoring on the complex is underperformance from Vestas Wind Systems (-3.5%), who represent 3.5% of the Stoxx 600 Oil & Gas index, after missing on Q2 metrics and narrowing revenue guidance. Elsewhere, RBS (-10.0%) are at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 weighed on by a downgrade at HSBC; note, the Co. are trading ex-dividend today. Returning to earnings, and at the other end of the Stoxx spectrum, are both GVC (+2.3%) and Carlsberg (+3.5%) after stating that FY outlook is ahead of expectations and confirming FY guidance with organic beer volume higher by 1.4% YY respectively.

Top European News

  • Vestas Profit Misses Forecasts as Wind Turbine Revenue Falls
  • German Profit Warnings Signal Trade Woes May Trigger Recession
  • U.K. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Rise Amid Online Promotions

In FX, the upbeat jobs data has helped the Aussie withstand another bout of risk aversion prompted by an official blast from China on the trade front and reiteration that Beijing will retaliate with countermeasures against the additional Usd300 bn tariffs that contravene the G20 truce agreement. Aud/Usd is holding firmly above 0.6750, albeit off 0.6790 overnight highs spurred by a significant beat in the payroll count vs expectations, and mainly due to full time workers. Similarly, Sterling got an unexpected lift from UK retail sales data confounding consensus for some payback after previous excesses, but Cable continues to meet resistance around 1.2100.

  • JPY – The Yen is back to roughly flat vs the Dollar and most other currency counterparts after a sudden slide in early EU trade that is still baffling market participants and pundits given no clear catalyst for the move. For the record, factors ranging from in incorrect order to official intervention have been touted, and clearly the speed of the sell-off did trigger stops and chart-based transactions, while a more macro or fundamental motive could have been a back-up in US Treasury yields and curve dis-inversion. However, risk aversion has resurfaced amidst the latest Chinese sabre-rattling and Usd/Jpy is back below 106.00 from circa 106.80 at one stage.
  • NOK – The Norwegian Crown has also been volatile within 10.0470-9.9720 parameters against the Euro, as the Norges Bank removed specific reference to next month when maintaining guidance for further policy normalisation this year due to heightened external risks and uncertainty. Nevertheless, it remains on track for more divergence in terms of benchmark rates compared to G10 and many if not all other global Central Bank peers, bar the Riksbank.
  • EUR/CAD/CHF/NZD – All relatively rangebound vs the Greenback even though overall sentiment has taken another turn for the worse after tentative signs of stability. The single currency is stuck between 1.1155-35, the Loonie is pivoting 1.3300, while the Franc has tracked its safe-haven Yen peer to a degree from around 0.9755 to 0.9725, and the Kiwi is straddling 0.6450, albeit largely on the downside towards 0.6425.
  • EM – Amidst widespread deviation for global/general and more specific or unique reasons, perhaps the rebound in Usd/Cnh from circa 7.0305 lows to 7.0630 is telling/ominous after 7.0268 Usd/Cny fix. Note also, Hong Kong has slashed its 2019 GDP projection to exacerbate global growth concerns, though the Government has injected Hkd 19.1bn via economic measures to try and ward off recession.

In commodities, Brent and WTI prices are firmly in negative territory, post the US-China updates, and have dipped below the USD 59.00/bbl and USD 55.00/bbl levels respectively which had been somewhat of a base for the benchmarks overnight after yesterdays significant downside for the complex, which saw Brent settle lower by around 3% on the day. On the supply/geopolitical front reports indicate that it is likely Iranian tanker Grace 1 will be permitted to leave Gibraltar as Chief Minister Picardo will not renew the vessels detention order which expires on Saturday; after which a court is to decide on the next steps. However, reports indicate that the US Department of Justice has applied to seize the tanker, which casts some doubt over the likelihood of the vessels near-term release. As a reminder prior to the vessel’s seizure reports indicated that it had loaded a 2mln/bbl cargo in Iranian waters around mid-April. Elsewhere, tomorrow sees the delayed release of OPEC’s monthly oil market report, focus will be on whether it takes a similar stance to the IEA and EIA reports in cutting 2019 world oil demand growth forecast. Turning to metals, where spot gold (+0.4%) remains above the USD 1500/oz mark as the market has settled somewhat from yesterday’s significant risk-off moves, but didn’t benefit much from the aforementioned trade headlines; the data slate ahead includes a number of notable US data points, which may spark further bouts of global growth worry if the prints are weak. Separately, copper prices are similarly little changed in-line with the largely tentative market sentiment thus far.

US event calendar

  • 8:30am: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Aug. 10, est. 212k, prior 209k
  • 8:30am: U.S. Retail Sales Advance MoM, July, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
  • 8:30am: U.S. Empire Manufacturing, Aug., est. 2.0, prior 4.3
  • 8:30am: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, Aug., est. 9.5, prior 21.8
  • 9:15am: U.S. Industrial Production MoM, July, est. 0.1%, prior 0.0%
  • 4pm: U.S. Net Foreign Security Purchases, June, no est., prior $3.5b

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

A mere 4,453 days had passed since the last time the US 2s10s curve was negative. That was until yesterday morning when the curve struck a low of -1.9bps. It ebbed and flowed around 0 for most of the day after that before closing the US session at +0.1bps. Still, the symbolic nature of the curve inverting is not to be underestimated. In fairness all of the other frequent measures of the yield curve have already inverted, namely the 3m10s (-37.8bps), 3s5s (-2.8bps), 2s5s (-8.0bps), and 18m3m-3m (-58.0bps). However, as we’ve discussed on many occasions, the 2s10s curve has the greatest power as a recession indicator in our view.

In fact, Jim must have had a dull day on holiday as he kept on emailing us about the 2s10s inversion. In the end he asked us to put this para in this morning to reflect his view. “Although other measures of the US yield curve have progressively inverted over the last few quarters, for me yesterday’s 2s10s inversion is the one that worries me most. In my opinion, it has the best track record for predicting an upcoming recession over more cycles than any of the others. Indeed, every inversion since 1956 has seen a recession follow. Although the median length of time to a recession is 17 months, credit spreads have pretty much exclusively widened from the point of inversion onwards (see p7 of Yield Curve 101 here ). Of those 2 of the 9 recessions since the 1950s took more than 2 years to materialise after the first inversion though. The first in the mid-1960s (took nearly 4 years) was due to a Fed policy error where the Fed didn’t raise rates as expected (they actually cut) with inflation rising. The curve re-steepened and only inverted again as the Fed reversed course and hiked a few quarters later. The recession soon followed the subsequent inversion. The second, following the May 1998 inversion, took 34 months until a recession arose but the inversion was relatively brief and occurred just prior to the Russian/LTCM crisis where the Fed rapidly cut 75bps thus re-steepening the curve. The Fed then raised rates again from 1999 and the curve re-inverted in early 2000, around a year before the actual recession. So, the conclusion is that the Fed has successfully acted before to delay the inversion turning into a recession but only on 2/9 occasions. Given that the market already prices in 65bps of cuts before year end it feels like they might need to out-pace that to make it 3 out of 10 where they’ve delayed the recession. I should say that our analysis uses closing prices, and we actually closed at 0.1bps last night so I have to be a bit careful here. But having spent most of my career suggesting that this was the most reliable indicator that the US cycle is entering its last act, I have to become far more negative now it looks likely to be triggered, especially given the history of credit spreads immediately after. As an aside, I don’t think this time is different because of term premium being much lower and global QE etc. as we think the causality is through animal spirits. In an inverted yield curve environment, this gets increasingly drained and thus impacts financial and economic activity. So I really don’t care why the curve inverts, just that it does. Anyway, see our “Yield Curve 101” link above for more and I’ll go back to steeper and steeper mountains in the Alps (no flat bits here) and hand you back to Craig and Quinn.”

That move for the curve included a 12.5bps rally for 10y Treasuries which saw them break below 1.60% to close at 1.580%, although this morning they’ve pushed on further to 1.549%. That puts them just 18.9bps above the 2016 lows now. In addition to that, the 10y real yield turned negative yesterday for the first time since October 2016. As for 30y yields, they have dipped below 2% for the first time ever overnight, currently trading at 1.966%, while 2y yields are trading at 1.557% which compares to a closing level on Tuesday of 1.669%. It’s quite amazing to think that 30y yields are also now below the effective Fed Funds rate. It was a similar story in Europe too yesterday, where 10y Bunds dropped -4.1bps and to a new low of -0.654%. Spain and Portugal are now within 14bps and 16bps of being negative at the 10y, while that Austrian 100y bond is now trading at a cash price of over 200. That corresponds to a yield of 0.689%. Not to be outdone also, the 2s10s Gilt curve also briefly turned negative yesterday.

While the 2s10s curve turning negative no doubt compounded the risk-off yesterday, the reality is that sentiment was already hit hard by that weak China data and then later by confirmation that Germany’s economy contracted in Q2 (more on that below). The trade rhetoric didn’t help at the margin too with commerce secretary Wilbur Ross telling CNBC that there is no date set for US-China trade talks while later on White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said in an interview with Fox that the US “can’t meet China halfway” and that “seven structural issues” still remain. Interestingly one of those was a reference to “hacking,” which hasn’t been a clear part of the trade talks so far and is likely to present an additional hurdle to a deal. Nevertheless, President Trump later tweeted overnight that “Good things were stated on the call with China the other day.” He also said that the tariff postponement to December “actually helps China more than us, but will be reciprocated.

Unsurprisingly, equity markets had a day to forget. The S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ tumbled -2.93%, -3.05% and -3.02%, respectively, with the move for the S&P 500 the second worst since December. Sector wise, energy and financials fell the most with the S&P 500 banks index actually tumbling -4.29% for the biggest daily loss since 4 December. That index has now fallen on 8 of the last 11 days and is back to trading at the lowest since March. The moves were incredibly broad-based, with 99.4% of S&P 500 companies trading lower, which was the worst ratio since February 2018. Other risk assets also struggled mightily yesterday too. In Europe the STOXX 600 closed down -1.68%. EM equities shed -2.88% and currencies retreated, highlighted by the South African rand (-1.83%), the Brazilian real (-2.10%), and the Argentine peso (-7.36%). In commodities oil fell -3.27%, while gold gained +0.99% to reach $1,516, its highest level since 2013. Meanwhile HY credit spreads in the US and Europe were +24bps and +3bps wider, respectively. On that, yesterday we published a short note which makes six observations about recent price action in the US IG and HY credit market. See the link here for the full report.

Overnight, markets are mostly trading lower in Asia too, however the good news at least is that most bourses have pared back heavier declines at the open. As we go to print the Nikkei (-1.29%), Shanghai Comp (-0.62%) and Hang Seng (-0.17%) are all in the red along with the ASX (-2.61%) following the latest employment data in Australia. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are up +0.19% as we type. In rates, with the US 2s10s curve hovering near where it closed last night, bond markets have rallied through much of Asia too with 10y JGBs in particular now down to -0.247% and approaching the 2016 low of -0.295%.

Meanwhile, and in some non-curve related news, with 11 weeks to go until the UK’s scheduled departure from the EU on October 31st, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has written to other MPs who oppose a no-deal Brexit, calling on them to support a “strictly time-limited temporary government” led by Corbyn as Prime Minister, with the purpose of getting an Article 50 extension and calling a general election. However, with a number of MPs in other parties, including the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats, opposing Corbyn as PM, this may prove a difficult vision to actually realise. Corbyn’s letter also said that he would call a no-confidence vote “at the earliest opportunity when we can be confident of success.” The House of Commons won’t be sitting again until September 3rd though, so there’ll be at least a couple of weeks before any moves like this could take place.

In other news, the data highlight was the negative GDP print in Germany, which showed the economy contracted -0.1% qoq as expected, which certainly did not help sentiment. Our economists have lowered their full-year 2019 German growth forecasts to 0.3% from 0.7%, see their full note here . Elsewhere, French CPI was confirmed at 1.3% yoy and -0.2% mom, though UK CPI came in higher than expected at 2.1% yoy versus expected 1.9%. The UK’s core CPI metric printed at 1.9%, 0.1pp stronger than expected.

On the Fedspeak front, the only notable comments from St. Louis President Bullard, who said that “macroeconomic outcomes are quite good for the US.” He talked about the ongoing Fed policy review, saying that the key question is how to avoid getting “stuck at an inflation rate that’s lower than your inflation target.” He included negative interest rates as a potential tool, which may have contributed to the marked selloff in bank stocks, though other Fed officials have downplayed the likelihood of that tool. Next week is the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference, where it is possible that Powell and other senior officials could speak. We are likely to get the schedule of speeches this evening.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning the only data out in Europe is the July retail sales report in the UK. However it’s busy for data in the US this afternoon. We’ll get August manufacturing surveys from the NY and Philly Fed, while preliminary Q2 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs data is due. Perhaps the most significant will be the July retail sales report however where the core and control groups readings are expected to show +0.4% mom and +0.5% mom, respectively. We’ll also get the latest jobless claims reading, July industrial and manufacturing production, August NAHB housing market index print and June business inventories. Central bank policy meetings are also due in Norway and Mexico, and in the evening, likely around 7:30pm, we should get the programme for the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference next week, which could see Powell speak.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.88 POINTS OR 0.25%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 193.18 POINTS OR 0.76%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 249.49 POINTS OR 1.21%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.80%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0399 /Oil UP TO 54.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.30 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0399 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0555 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

This occurred prior to the Chinese comment that they hope that the USA will go half way in dealing with them.

Prior to that China rejects Trump’s tariff olive branch and they vow imminent retaliation against the Chinese.  This still stands.

(zerohedge)

China Rejects Trump’s Tariff Olive Branch, Vows Imminent Retaliation Against US

One day after the Chinese press roundly mockedTrump’s unsolicited tariff delay as proof the US was losing the trade war with China, with the Global Times saying that “Chinese experts said the sudden postponing of impending tariffs showed that the maximum pressure tactics of the US are losing their bite when it comes to China”, a suddenly emboldened Beijing – perhaps sensing that it is indeed dealing with a weaker opponent – called planned U.S. tariffs on an additional $300 billion in Chinese goods a violation of accords reached by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinpingand warned it would take all necessary measures to impose new tariffs on its own.

Echoing what Global Times editor in chief Hu Xijin said overnight, a short Thursday statement from the State Council Tariff Committee said the new 10% tariffs have taken the U.S. and China off the track of resolving their dispute through negotiation, and noted that China “has no choice but to take necessary measures to retaliate,” without specifying what the nation would do. The committee has overseen tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs on American products.

The statement indicates that it won’t take long for China to reveal its own retaliatory tariffs, according to Tu Xinquan, dean of the China Institute for WTO Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. The response is about expressing China’s stance even though policy makers know the impact on the U.S. economy will be limited, he told Bloomberg.

That said, according to an analysis by twitter China watcher, Trinh Nguyen, the amount China has left under tariffs is about USD10bn (already imposed 110bn) “so not much ammunition & will need curb investment/FX deval/UST/rare earth curb. Chart below 👇🏻 US has plenty left & reflects trade diff w/ China.”

 

Trinh Nguyen@Trinhnomics

China: Will have to take all necessary measures to impose new tariffs.

The amount China has left is ~USD10bn (already imposed 110bn) so not much ammunition & will need curb investment/FX deval/UST/rare earth curb. Chart below 👇🏻 US has plenty left & reflects trade diff w/ China.

View image on Twitter

But what is far more troubling, is that contrary to Trump’s implied expectation that China would respond with an olive branch of its own and according to Steven Englander, “will expect China to reciprocate by buying US agricultural products in the coming weeks”, not only does China not plan on doing so but – as we warned yesterday – will send relations between the two nations into even greater turmoil with escalation of its own.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

As far as I know, the Chinese side requests that both sides respect the consensus reached at Osaka summit, which is removing all additional tariffs, not delaying some. I doubt Chinese side will resume large-scale purchase of US farm products under current circumstances.

View image on Twitter

Less than 12 hours before the Chinese statement on retaliation, Trump suggested another meeting with Xi. In a flurry of tweets, Trump defended his tariffs decisions, praised Xi and urged the Chinese president to “humanely” resolve the protests that have gripped Hong Kong for more than two months. He ended the posts with an apparent overture to Xi — writing “Personal meeting?” — without clarifying whether he was suggesting another summit.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I know President Xi of China very well. He is a great leader who very much has the respect of his people. He is also a good man in a “tough business.” I have ZERO doubt that if President Xi wants to quickly and humanely solve the Hong Kong problem, he can do it. Personal meeting?

In kneejerk response to the apparent escalation, European stocks declined and U.S. equity futures pared a gain of almost 1%. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell while the three main American equity contracts trimmed an earlier jump after China’s move.

And with the ball no longer in China’s court now that Beijing has spat at Trump’s coy attempt at quasi-appeasement, all eyes are back on Trump’s twitter feed where the US president has two options: either offer even more concessions to China and be seen as even weaker and more desperate to get some concessions out of Beijing (unlikely), or go back to square one and/or escalate tensions even more and potentially eliminate the proposed tariff delay, sending stocks plunging (and the Fed that much closer to the coveted emergency rate cut).

end

Hong Kong activist leaders calls for a run on Chinese banks and if that would happen it would destroy their banking system

(Watson/Summit News)

Hong Kong Activist Leader Calls For A Run On Chinese Banks Tomorrow

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Prominent Hong Kong pro-independence political activist Chen Haotian has called for a run on Chinese banks, asking that everyone withdraw their money on the same day.

Haotian is a founding member and the convenor of the Hong Kong National Party.

Arguing that large scale protests have only led to injuries and escalating police brutality, Haotian believes another method could be used to severely undermine China’s influence – a good old fashioned run on the bank.

He suggested that another method could be used, namely, impacting the financial system,” reports China Press.

“He called on Friday (August 16) that Hong Kong citizens take out all bank deposits. The primary goal is Chinese banks, but he said other banks should also be targeted, otherwise Chinese banks can borrow money from other banks to solve problems.”

Hong Kong has been rocked by weeks of violent protests by pro-independence campaigners. Earlier this week, riot police stormed Hong Kong International Airport to clear them out.

As we reported on Tuesday, while China is unlikely to invade using PLA troops, experts have suggested that soldiers could be disguised as Hong Kong police.

*  *  *

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4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The big European banks did not like this:  an ECB official says that new stimulus measures is coming in Sept and they “may overshoot”.  The Euro stumbles and so does the banks.

 

(zerohedge)

 

Euro, Bond Yields Tumble As ECB Official Says Stimulus Measures “May Overshoot”

And the jawboning begins:

As Europe’s banking system collapses, ECB is resorting to over-promising more of the same and as ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said, the ECB “will announce a package of stimulus measures at its next policy meeting in September that should overshoot investors’ expectations.” More from Bloomberg:

“It’s important that we come up with a significant and impactful policy package in September,”ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn (governor of Finland’s central bank) says in interview with Wall Street Journal.

“When you’re working with financial markets, it’s often better to overshoot than undershoot, and better to have a very strong package of policy measures than to tinker

The euro plunged.

Source: Bloomberg

And Italian yields tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

As the 10Y Bund yields tumbled to fresh session lows…

… in the last round of the global race to the bottom, where if the Fed eases, everyone else has to ease even more.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel/USA

Israel has perfected its Iron Dome and now they have inked a deal with the uSA

(zerohedge)

US Army Inks Deal For Israel’s Iron Dome In Historic First

A landmark deal for US procurement of Israel’s Iron Dome anti-air missile defense systems was finalized this week. It became official when on Tuesday the US Defense Department announced it had formally signed a contract for two complete Iron Dome systems.

Co-developed by Raytheon and Israeli defense firm Rafael, the system has been touted by Israeli leaders as the most advanced short to mid-range interceptor in the world with a proven track record, given that even within the past year it’s been engaged in dozens if not hundreds of Hamas rocket intercepts from Gaza.

 

Image via Jewish Policy Center

“Now that the contract is set in stone, the Army will be able to figure out delivery schedules and details in terms of taking receipt of the systems,” a US missile systems analyst told Defense News of the future transfer.

 

From a US perspective the Iron Dome represents an “interim” solution to close some existing gaps in the Army’s anti-air capabilities, as well as experiment with integration with other systems, according to Defense News:

The Army was shifting around its pots of funding within its Indirect Fires Protection Capability (IFPC) program — under development to defend against rockets, artillery and mortars as well as unmanned aircraft and cruise missiles — to fill its urgent capability gap for cruise missile defense on an interim basis. Congress mandated the Army deploy two batteries by fiscal 2020 in the service’s fiscal 2019 budget.

The US Army had announced last February when the impending deal was first revealed: “While Iron Dome has been in operational use by the Israeli Air Force since 2011 and proven effective in combat, it should be noted that the U.S. Army will assess a variety of options for its long-term IFPC solution,” according to the report.

This week’s announcement marks the first time Israel has ever sold a stand alone weapons system to the United States.

Tel Aviv has recently cited the Iron Dome achieving an 86% shootdown rate when in May about 700 rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip over a period of a few days in the most recent major flare-up of hostilities.

Also, last month Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announcedthe successful test firing of Israel’s Arrow-3 ballistic missile shield over Alaska,tests previously considered secretive. Specifically the Arrow-3 is designed to take out advanced ballistic missiles in Iran and Syria’s arsenal, and is designed as the ‘top level’ of which the Iron Dome forms the base platform in the overall three-tiered system.

 

The Arrow-3, once fully integrated with the Iron Dome and the medium-range ‘David’s Sling,’ will mark the longest range capability in Israel’s multi-tiered missile defense network.

END
No decision on whether Israel will allow Tlaib and Omar into the country
(zerohedge)
Late in the day, the Israel stopped the two from entering
(zerohedge)

Trump Urges Israel Not To Allow “Disgrace” Reps Omar, Tlaib To Visit

Amid confusing and contradictory headlines, President Trump has put more pressure on Israel in his latest tweet.

Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), who have both been accused of making antisemitic statements, are reportedly being barred from entering Israel over their support for an international movement aimed at marginalizing the majority Jewish country.

However, another report indicated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was meeting with officials and hadn’t made a decision yet.

Which may have prompted President Trump’s latest tweet:

It would show great weakness if Israel allowed Rep. Omar and Rep.Tlaib to visit. They hate Israel & all Jewish people, & there is nothing that can be said or done to change their minds. Minnesota and Michigan will have a hard time putting them back in office. They are a disgrace!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

It would show great weakness if Israel allowed Rep. Omar and Rep.Tlaib to visit. They hate Israel & all Jewish people, & there is nothing that can be said or done to change their minds. Minnesota and Michigan will have a hard time putting them back in office. They are a disgrace!

A tweet that is sure to unleash an avalanche of leftist ire.

As Axios reports, according to Israeli officials, Netanyahu is trying to find a solution that will address the pressure from the White House but will not totally bar Omar and Tlaib.

  • As of 5 am EDT, no decision had been made. One of the possibilities floated would be allowing the congresswomen to enter Israel but limiting their movements only to the Palestinian Authority.
  • Another option is to allow them in on humanitarian grounds. An Israeli official told me that if Tlaib filed a humanitarian request to visit her relatives, the Israeli government will consider it favorably.

Yes, but: At the same time, the Israeli Ministry of Justice and other relevant ministries are compiling evidence for Omar and Tlaib’s support for BDS in order to build a legal case for not allowing them to enter the country.

end
Iran/Gibraltar
Judge in Gibraltar rules the seized Iranian tanker is free to go.  The USA is doing everything they can to stop the ship from leaving.
(zerohedge)

Gibraltar Judge Rules To Release Seized Iranian Tanker

Update (1020ET): As expected a Gibraltar judge has agreed to release the seized Iranian oil tanker, Grace 1 (which was allegedly shipping 2.1m barrels of crude to Syria, breaching EU sanctions).

As Gibraltar Chronicle reports, the decision to release the ship was taken hours after the US reportedly launched a separate last-minute legal move to detain the vessel.

But Chief Justice Anthony Dudley said that there was no US application currently before the court.

“That’s not before me,” he said.

“There are no applications in relation to the US letters of request [for mutual legal assistance].”

GBC News

@GBCNewsroom

BREAKING – Grace 1 supertanker free to leave Gibraltar waters after new regulations published. US request for detention not before the Supreme Court today

View image on Twitter

“The detention is over immediately,” according to the judge, but it was not immediately clear why that decision had been taken.

Iran reportedly gave authorities in Gibraltar an undertaking on the tanker’s destination.

“From the minute that the judge made his order, the ship is no longer any compulsion to stay within the jurisdiction,” lawyer Charles Gomez says outside the Supreme Court of Gibraltar of the supertanker at the center of a standoff with Tehran.

However, it is not clear at this stage when the ship will sail from Gibraltar , or whether the US will formally apply to the court to detain it before that happens.

*  *  *

A Gibraltar court decision expected Thursday on whether to release the Iranian oil tanker Grace 1 has been delayed over a last minute push by the United States to take custody.

The Gibraltar Chronicle reported that the court was set to release the Panamanian-flagged tanker, which had been boarded by Royal Marines in early July and caught carrying 2 million barrels of Iranian oil bound for Syria, but that US intervention has prevented a ruling.

“The US Department of Justice has applied to seize the Grace 1 on a number of allegations which are now being considered,” a government of Gibraltar statement said.

 

Image source: Getty

US intervention also comes at a crucial moment when negotiations between Britain and Iran were said to be making progress toward a tanker swap. It is expected that as soon as the Grace 1 is released British-flagged vessel Stena Impero – which had been seized in the Strait of Hormuz as retaliation – will also in turn be released by the Iranians.

British overseas territory Gibraltar has also said the Grace 1’s captain and three officers will also soon go free, who have been detained since the July 4 incident which Tehran condemned as “piracy” on the part of the west.

The UK for its part claimed to have upheld EU sanctions on Syria, with Iran countering that it had taken the unprecedented action merely at the behest of the US. Given Thursday’s Washington intervention in the Grace 1’s release, Tehran’s argument appears to have been validated.

A further Gibraltar court decision is expected later in the day Thursday, and it will be interesting if there is push back against the US from the UK, given the Stena Impero’s fate hangs in the balance.

developing…

end

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Argentina

Argentina basically collapses as its Peso is now over 60 pesos per dollar.  The next big Argentina bond which is partly owned by Pimco has fallen badly and with a yield north of 50%, it will surley default

(zeorhedge)

PIMCO’s Argentina Bond Bet Hits Major Roadblock As The Peso Collapses

PIMCO’s big bet to buy almost 33% of the world’s top paying government bond had the rug pulled out from underneath it this week as Argentina’s currency collapsed, according to Bloomberg.

The bonds have now fallen to 71 cents on the dollar from 104 cents last Friday and the debt matures next June. The notes have a floating coupon which is tied to the benchmark interest rate, which is now at an all-time high of 75%.

But the astronomical yield on the debt was counteracted by a swift fall in the peso after President Macri suffered defeat in the country’s primaries.

PIMCO owns about 30% of the USD $2.4 billion worth of the 2020 bonds on issue. They had raised their stake in the bond earlier this year before Argentina reopened the bond sale.

PIMCO now says that it has diversified itself and added downside protection in the event of an “extreme market event”. The company has also said that it has avoided larger exposures with greater losses that other major investors have run into.

And while nominal returns for the notes have been impressive of late,the country’s currency collapse – to the tune of 37% this year – has curbed real gains. A number of analysts still speculate that the peso has a long way to fall.

PIMCO’s profit and loss is ultimately going to hinge on how the company has hedged itself. The company offered no comment to Bloomberg about its hedge.

The nation’s benchmark rate was 26% when the debt was issued two years ago as the country was optimistic that its economy would be able to be resuscitated.

PIMCO was not alone in getting crushed by Argentina’s sudden collapse. As we noted yesterdayFranklin Templeton’s Global Bond Fund manager, Michael Hasenstab – the man who may have bought every single sovereign bond dip in history in hopes of being bailed out by central banks – was on Epsteinwatch, for the simple reason that this time a bailout was not forthcoming, resulting in unprecedented losses.

end

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1153 UP .0011 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.99 UP 0.101 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2485   UP 0057  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3311 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 11 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1153 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 6.88 POINTS OR 0.25% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 193.18 POINTS OR 0.76%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 2,80%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 193.18 POINTS OR 0.76%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.88 POINTS OR 0.25%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 2.80% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 249.48  POINTS OR 1.21%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1514.20

silver:$17.20-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.54% !!! DOWN 4 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.98 DOWN 4  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.99 DOWN 10 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.07% DOWN 10 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.23%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.04%//DOWN 8 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,33 DOWN 8 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 129 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.71% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.01% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1103  DOWN     .0040 or 40 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.11upN .193 OR YEN down 20  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2109 UP .0050 POUND UP 50  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 11 basis points to 1.3322

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0340    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0492  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.5660 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.23%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 21.54 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.00 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.17 UP 18  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 90.87  1.13%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 79.99 POINTS OR .70%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 14.37 POINTS 2738%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 3.70 POINTS or 0.04%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 519.15 POINTS OR 2.53%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.50 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 58.28 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    66.09  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.02 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 2 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.71 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  54.66//

 

 

BRENT :  58.33

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.51… down a huge 7 basis points

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.96 down a huge 11 basis  points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1111 ( down 32   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.05 up .133 (YEN down 13 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.09 up 11 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2109 UP 50  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.5626

 

 

the Russian rouble 66.08   down 0.02 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 2 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3315 down 5 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0340  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0459 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.71%

 

The Dow closed UP 99.97 POINTS OR 0.39%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 65.77 POINTS OR 0.53%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  21.05 CLOSED DOWN 1.05

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.168%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bond Yields Crash To Record Lows, Stocks Barely Bounce After Bloodbath

After the 4th biggest point drop in US stock market history, this is all equity dip-buyers could manage? This won’t end well…

China was mysteriously panic-bid overnight after plunging at the open after US stocks crashed...

More stimulus promises did nothing to help European stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

EU banks broke to a new cycle low…

Source: Bloomberg

After ECB promised more stimulus, Bund yields crashed to a stunning record low of –71bps (down 21 of last 24 days)

Source: Bloomberg

Also of note, in the crazy world of negative rates, the 50Y EU Swap rate has dropped below zero for the first time ever…

Source: Bloomberg

US equities whipsawed by headline-reading algos early on as China threatened retaliation, WMT surged, and China offered some hope for a deal before Trump confirmed on his terms…

An afternoon buying spree (paging Steve Mnuchin) lifted The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq into the green for the day

On the week, Trannies are the biggest losers

 

The Dow bounced back above its 200DMA…

Small Caps tumbled to May lows and bounced a smidge, dramatically below the 200DMA…

 

The Dow was rescued by WalMart’s big gains…

 

But GE crashed on Markopolous exposures…

 

Defensives dominated the days…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled on the day (again) with the short-end outperforming this time (2Y -7bps, 30Y -3bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y broke below 2.00% for the first time ever (and 2Y broke below 1.50% for the first time since 2007 as did 10Y)…

Source: Bloomberg

And the 10Y Yield is testing back towards record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve story was mixed – 2s10s rose back from inversion…

Source: Bloomberg

BUT remember the 3m10Y – which is the most accurate recession indicator – remains deeply inverted…

Source: Bloomberg

What a difference a year makes – entire curve now below 2.00% but entire curve was above 2.00% exactly one year ago…

Source: Bloomberg

And TIPS markets are pricing in a deflationary future…

Source: Bloomberg

Overnight weakness in the dollar ramped higher once again today (starting to see a pattern here)…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan weakened modestly overnight (even as the PBOC fixed it stronger again)…

Source: Bloomberg

Which is notable as China appeared to start trying to squeeze the shorts with a liquidity squeeze overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

And it appears Hong Kong authorities intervened to keep the HKD away from the low-end of the USD peg…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos got hit hard overnight but bounced back as Europe opened…

Source: Bloomberg

But Bitcoin bounced back above $10k by the end…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil and gold diverged once again today as did copper (lower) and silver (higher)…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is back below $55…

Gold futures’ bounce off $1500 continues…

Global Negative-yielding debt topped $16 trilion for the fiorst time ever, and gold tracked it perfectly (but bitcoin appears to have decoupled for now)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields imply gold should be higher or copper lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we have seen the emergence of another ominous Hindenburg Omen…

Source: Bloomberg

We all know who to blame… right Mr. Trump?

The Fake News Media is doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think that will be bad for me and my re-election. The problem they have is that the economy is way too strong and we will soon be winning big on Trade, and everyone knows that, including China! “

At least The Fed wasn’t immediately blamed this time.

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

USA 30 yr bond yields tumbles to 1.98%..first time ever

.(zerohedge)

US 30Y Yield Tumbles Below 2.00% For The First Time Ever

From its highs on 10/26/81 (at 15.2%), the 30Y UST yield has collapsed to below 2.00% today.

Source: Bloomberg

That’s quite a trend…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And for the first time ever, the entire UST curve is below 2.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

What a difference a year makes…

Source: Bloomberg

And don’t forget the Effective Fed Funds Rate is 2.12% – above the entire curve – Well done Fed!!!

ends

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/MORNING

Absolute nonsense:  futures suddenly explode higher on supposed Chinese conciliatory headline

These guys continue to talk and you need the newspaper to jolt futures.. the yuan hardly budged.

(zerohedge)

Futures Suddenly Explode Higher On Chinese Conciliatory Headline

Barely 90 minutes after markets tanked after China vowed it retaliate imminently to Trump’s imposition of new tariffs, futures exploded higher on what was interpreted as a conciliatory headline from China that apparently reversed all the negative sentiment.

  • CHINA HOPES U.S. CAN MEET HALF WAY WITH IT ON TRADE ISSUE: HUA

How this was indicative of anything more than what it meant, namely tacit hope that the US would concede further, is unclear, but to algos it was all they needed to activate the afterburners on the BTFD program and the result was the following:

European stocks similarly pared their drop on the headline, after benchmarks had dropped as much as 1.4% earlier.

That said, suggesting that the bounce will fizzle shortly was the response in the yuan which was barely noticeable:

Whether optimism persists is unclear, but what is clear is that for now, the pattern of futures surging after a CNBC “Markets in Turmoil” episode remains unbroken.

zerohedge@zerohedge

Only a CNBC “Markets in Turmoil” can save us now

END
That did not last long:  Trump comments that China must do a deal on his terms and they will not do a deal half way. Dow reverses but the algos are trying to keep this thing into the green
(zerohedge)

Dow Dumps Back Into Red, Erases “Meet Halfway” Gains On Trump Comments

Some good (macro) news is bad news sprinkled in with President Trump saying that he will only do a deal with China “on our terms” has sparked algo selling across the cash open, sending The Dow back into the red…

 

Meanwhile 30Y just dropped back below 2.00% again…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Maybe Johnny 5 should take the day off.

 end
THEN THIS AFTERNOON:

Stocks & Bond Yields Are Suddenly Crashing Again

10Y Yield just plunged back below 1.50%, and 30Y yields are pushing new record lows at 1.93% as stocks give up early gains dumping into the red… no immediate catalyst but the combined move suggests a major delevering in risk-parity.

It’s a bond bear bloodbath…

Source: Bloomberg

And stocks are also puking their gains…

Pushing VIX above 23…

Paging Steven Mnuchin…

 

ii)Market data/USA

Retail sales surge in July but this was mainly due to Amazon’s |Prime Day

(zerohedge)

Retail Sales Surge In July Thanks To Amazon’s Prime Day

The last few months have seen extremely volatile swings in monthly retail sales but every rebound is heralded as evidence of “the strength of the consumer.”

Source: Bloomberg

So all eyes were on today’s July data, expected to rise for the 5th month in a row, and it did – crushing expectations with a headline retail sales surge of 0.7% MoM (+0.3% exp) – the biggest gain in four months.

More importantly, the Control Group – used for GDP calcs – surged 1.0% MoM, sending YoY gains dramatically higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Only three categories saw sales declines (including auto sales)…

Source: Bloomberg

Most notably, the non-store retailers (i.e. Amazon) saw a massive 2.8% MoM surge in sales thanks to Prime Day.

Source: Bloomberg

This is not a picture of an economy that needs more rate cuts Mr. Powell.

end

Soft data, Philly and Empire beat expectations supposedly confirming an economic rebound.  I would not trust the data

(zerohedge)

Philly, Empire Fed Beat Expectations, Confirming Economic Rebound

Following an unexpectedly strong retail sales report which saw a solid, 0.9% increase in sales ex autos and gas, almost double the 0.5% expected, we got further confirmation the US economy may be rebounding thanks to both the Philly and New York Fed, both of which printed well above expectations.

  • Empire Manufacturing (NY) Fed August: 4.8. up from 4.3, and well above the 2.0% expected.
  • Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook August: 16.8, down from 21.8 but also well above the 9.5% expected.

Commenting on the latest Philadelphia Fed, the survey organizers said that manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, with “general activity, shipments, and employment indicators decreased from their readings last month, but the indicator for new orders increased.” The survey’s future activity indexes remained positive, suggesting continued optimism about growth for the next six months.

  • The diffusion index for current general activity fell 5 points this month to 16.8, after increasing 22 points in July.  Movements in the indexes for current shipments and new orders were mixed: The current new orders index increased 7 points, while the shipments index decreased 6 points. Both the unfilled orders and delivery times indexes remained positive this month, suggesting higher unfilled orders and slower delivery times.
  • The firms continued to report increases in the prices paid for inputs. The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (25 percent) remained higher than the percentage reporting decreases (12 percent). The prices paid diffusion index decreased 3 points and remains well below readings over the past two and a half years. The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, increased 4 points to a reading of 13.0 but is also still well below readings of the past few years. 

Meanwhile, the Empire Fed was even more optimistic, noting that “new orders increased after declining for the prior two months, and shipments continued to expand. Unfilled orders fell, delivery times were steady, and inventories increased.” On the other hand, the employment and average workweek indexes were both slightly below zero, pointing to sluggishness in labor market conditions. Input prices increased at a slightly slower pace than last month, and selling price increases were little changed. Some more details:

  • Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity grew modestly in August. The general business conditions index was little changed at 4.8, pointing to two months of modest growth after a brief decline in activity in June. Twenty-seven percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 22 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index climbed above zero, and at 6.7, indicated that orders increased. The shipments index moved slightly higher to 9.3, pointing to an increase in shipments. Unfilled orders declined for a third consecutive month. Delivery times were steady, and inventories rose for the first time since April.
  • The index for number of employees held below zero for a third consecutive month, coming in at -1.6, and the average workweek index was -1.3, pointing to ongoing sluggishness in employment levels and hours worked.  The prices paid index edged down two points to 23.2, suggesting a slightly slower pace of input price increases than last month. The prices received index was little changed at 4.5, with selling price increases maintaining a modest pace.

Where the news was less good was in the outlook, with indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggesting that firms were somewhat less optimistic about future conditions than they were last month. The index for future business conditions fell five points to 25.7, and the index for future new orders also moved lower.

The bottom line: the barrage of economic data today – from the beat in productivity and retail sales, to the stronger than expected Philly and Empire Fed indexes – suggest that the Fed may have a tough time pushing for a 50bps rate cut, or even a 25bps, absent a dramatic deterioration in financial conditions and/or further escalation in trade war.

Which probably explains why US futures are unable to decide what to do with today’s strong economic data, and if anything have drifted lower.

end

This is the far more important data points.  Hard data USA manufacturing slumps back into contraction

(zerohedge)

US Manufacturing Slumps Back Into Contraction

After this morning’s good news (regional Fed surveys and retail sales), macro data reality just hit with US Industrial Production tumbling 0.2% MoM (notably worse than the +0.1% MoM) as manufacturing plunged.

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturing output slumped 0.4% MoM

Source: Bloomberg

It gets worse though as, on a year-over-year basis, Industrial production is barely growing (weakest since Feb 2017) and Manufacturing is back in contraction…

Source: Bloomberg

Mining was the biggest driver of the slowdown, falling 1.8% in July, “as Hurricane Barry caused a sharp but temporary decline in oil extraction in the Gulf of Mexico,” according to the report, but Machinery and Autos also declined.

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The whistleblower who told the authorities about Madoff, writes that GE is a bankruptcy waiting to happen

(zerohedge)

Markopolos: GE Is “Bankruptcy Waiting To Happen”

As Henry Markopolos readily admits, GE has reportedly been playing fast and loose with its revenues for decades, which is why thousands of analysts were shocked to see the dogged Madoff whistleblower publish a report Thursday morning warning about ‘Accounting Irregularities’ at the once-mighty industrial conglomerate, which amounted to almost $40 billion.

Markopolos continued that the fraud growing inside GE was “bigger than Enron and Worldcom combined” (which is difficult to imagine given GE’s relatively puny market cap), and that most of the dirt could be found within its insurance unit, which will need to bolster its reserves by $18.5 billion in cash, and faulted the way the company is accounting for its oil-and-gas business. All told, he said, the accounting problems amount to $38 billion, or 40% of the conglomerate’s market value.

But in a tough interview with CNBC Thursday morning, Markopolos defended his findings, all while repeatedly refusing to disclose with whom he is working (It’s reportedly a US-based mid-sized hedge fund)

“Years ago, I would sit down at analyst luncheons and everybody would joke about GE and how they were cooking their earnings under Jack Welch then of course again under Immelt…GE took off like a rocket under take numbers (that is, until the crisis).”

 

Everybody said, “it’s 3% of the S&P 500, we should benchmark it because if we only have 1%, then we’d be short 2% after it took off like a rocket under fake numbers.

But what is Markopolos seeing right now that the rest of Wall Street has missed?

“The numbers are missing. They report top line revenues, bottom line profits, and nothing in between, expenses, research and development, selling, general administration costs – including cash flows, they don’t provide working capital, in fact GE is the only company in its industry that doesn’t provide working capital, in fact, GE’s working capital is minus $23 billion, if you search for current ratio in their annual ratio it doesn’t appear – name another company that does that…it’s accounting 101,” he said.

How severe is the problem? Serious enough to push it into bankruptcy? Yes, Markopolos says.

“They took a $15 billion reserve hit in Jan 2018 for long term care they have another $18.5 billion in immediate cash needs for reserves, they also have a $10.5 billion non-cash reserve hit they need to take on their GAAP books that’s going to be a loss and destroy their equity ratios and it needs to be done before Q1 2021 when new accounting rules take place.

He also explained how he went through the statutory filings for 8 GE reinsurance counterparties for long term care and pulled the regulatory filings for the years 2013-2018 and saw “all the losses falling onto GE’s books.” “GE is losing $5.27 for each dollar of premium they’re taking in.”

“Those losses are unsustainable and they’re growing at an exponential rate. That’s not going away…and it’s probably going to make this company file for bankruptcy.”

But if GE’s insurance liabilities take place over several decades, why take a charge for that now?

“Usually you reserve in advance so you can invest the money in the bond market and earn returns on it so you have the money to pay claims when they come due…and if you want to compare it to Unum…Unum’s loss ratio for 2018 was 90%, which means they took in $1 of premiums and paid out 90 cents so they were profitable…for Prudential, 81%…for GE, 527% – many times greater. It’s unsustainable and it’s growing.”

A lot has changed since the Enron and Worldcom scandals…what about the auditors, and boards…were all of these people missing the mark here?

“Yes, the gatekeepers have consistently failed…look at the Ratings Agencies during the financial crisis.” Markopolos also didn’t speak with the company before publishing his report so they wouldn’t start destroying evidence.

Markopolos said he’s pursuing GE because the shareholders deserve to know…but also because he needs to get paid. “I have a family to support.”

Finally, as the interview wound down to a close, Markopolos offered a bizarre explanation for his decision to go after GE: It’s recent move of its headquarters near Boston from Fairfield, Conn. “When you move to my home town, and you’re running a scam, I’m going to come after you.” And while Markopolos’s ‘nobody commits accounting fraud in my backyard’ sounds convincing, we’d certainly feel better knowing for whom Markopolos is working, and what their angle is, considering that betting against GE is nothing knew.

GE the company has been issuing denials all day, and most recently, CEO Larry Culp said Markopolos’s report contains “false statements of fact.”

iv) Swamp commentaries)

The odds of Epstein being murdered is now elevated as they found that the hyoid bone was broken in many places.  This generally happens in strangulation and not hanging.  They will need to find out the length of the drop from the top of the bunk bed and the strength of the sheets to confirm

(zerohedge)

Epstein Autopsy Finds Evidence He May Have Been Murdered

As the public carries on with the great debate about what really happened (or didn’t happen) to Jeffrey Epstein early Saturday morning in the hours before he was found dead in his cell at MCC in an apparent suicide, the Washington Post has unleashed a bombshell.

First, remember how some witnesses claimed they had heard horrifying shrieking coming from Epstein’s cell in the hours before his death? Well, here’s one explanation for that: An autopsy report found that Epstein had endured multiple breaks in his neck bones, deepening the mystery surrounding his death last week.

Among the bones broken in Epstein’s neck was the hyoid bone, which in men is near the Adam’s apple. These breaks can occur in those who hang themselves, particularly if they are older, according to forensics experts and studies on the subject.

But they are more common in victims of homicide by strangulation.

Even Jonathan L. Arden, president of the National Association of Medical Examiners, admitted that a hyoid break is more commonly associated with homicidal strangulation than suicidal hanging.

The hyoid bone played a pivotal role in another critical New York City case: The death of Eric Garner. 

The hyoid bone played a central role in a heated dispute last year over another high-profile death in New York, that of Eric Garner. A New York police officer was accused of using an improper chokehold while trying to arrest Garner and of causing his death. A police officers’ association claimed that an autopsy from Sampson’s office found there was no break of Garner’s hyoid bone, and that this proved that the officer could not have strangled Garner and caused his death.

These details, according to WaPo, are the first to emerge from Epstein’s autopsy, something that will undoubtedly be closely watched by the legions of Epstein conspiracists who have emerged since his death. 

While AG William Barr has described Epstein’s death as “an apparent suicide,” but DoJ officials have refused to comment on the latest findings from Epstein’s autopsy.

The office of New York City’s chief medical examiner, Barbara Sampson, completed an autopsy of Epstein’s body Sunday. But Sampson listed the cause of his death as pending. Asked about the neck injuries Sampson said in a statement that no single factor in an autopsy can alone provide a conclusive answer about what happened.

“In all forensic investigations, all information must be synthesized to determine the cause and manner of death. Everything must be consistent; no single finding can be evaluated in a vacuum.”

The reports about Epstein’s neck injuries followed revelations that the two guards responsible for guarding him had fallen asleep during the hours before his death, then falsified paper work to try and cover their tracks. And dozens of veteran prosecutors and prison officials were shocked that one of the most high-profile inmates in the country wasn’t more closely watched.

Sure, plenty of details remain to be revealed from Epstein’s autopsy, but his jailhouse death is beginning to sound like something out of ‘the Wire’.

end
Where is Ghislaine?
(zerohedge)

Tech CEO Denies Epstein’s Alleged Madam Living At His Oceanfront Mansion

Tech CEO and Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) member Scott Borgerson has refuted a Daily Mail report that Jeffrey Epstein’s former “best friend” and alleged madam, Ghislaine Maxwell, is living at his “secluded oceanfront property” in New England, according to Axios.

 

Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell in 1995  (photo: Patrick McMullan)

“I’m in Europe right now and there isn’t anyone in my house but my cat,” Borgerson told Axios, adding that he’s asked the local police to check the house for any signs of the 57-year-old Maxwell. He also said that while he knows Maxwell, the two are not dating.

And as Bloomberg reports, “there were no signs of Maxwell at the grand home perched above the Atlantic, if indeed she ever was here. Beyond the long, tree-lined drive, the white colonial, known as Tidewood, appeared to be empty.

Of course, she also could have left the residence when the Daily Mail piece hit. 

Epstein, meanwhile, may have been murdered in a Manhattan jail cell last Saturday after his autopsy revealed that he had suffered multiple breaks to his neck bones.

After Epstein died in a Manhattan jail cell on Aug. 10, apparently of suicide, new scrutiny turned to Maxwell, the one-time British socialite accused in civil lawsuits of procuring high-school age women for the wealthy financier. She has never been charged with any crime, and has continued to deny wrongdoing.

The circumstances surrounding Epstein’s death –- two guards supposed to check on him had reportedly fallen asleep and falsified records to cover up the mistake while an autopsy found Epstein had sustained a broken neck bone often found in the victims of homicide by strangulation — only intensified questions swirling around the case, and around Maxwell. –Bloomberg

Maxwell – whom Epstein once described as his “best friend,” has been accused of recruiting and training young women to perform massage and sexual acts on Epstein and his associates, including Britain’s Prince Andrew (who recently ‘retired from public life‘), Bill Clinton, and attorney Alan Dershowitz. All have denied the claims.

 

Prince Andrew, Ghislaine Maxwell and Virginia Roberts – who claims to have seen Bill Clinton on Epstein’s infamous island while she was being sex-trafficked.

Brain Taylor@BrainTaylorBBC

Prince Andrew announced his retirement today from public life after a long period of severe personal stress.
In a statement, his Royal Highness added he is ‘following advice’ from his doctor.
There was no comment from @BBCScotlandNews BBC-NEWS

View image on Twitter

 

Via The Telegraph

So where is Maxwell?

If she’s not at Borgerson’s estate, where could Maxwell be? According to Bloomberg, “In London’s Belgravia neighborhood, cobwebs hang in the windowsills of the three-story mews home that records show Maxwell owns. She sold her townhouse on East 65th Street in Manhattan in 2016. Lawyers representing her in a civil suit told a U.S. court in 2017 that they didn’t believe that she had a permanent residence.”

Over the past few weeks, Maxwell hasn’t responded to emails, phone calls and letters seeking comment. Jeffrey Pagliuca, a lawyer representing Maxwell in various civil suits, didn’t respond to a request for comment. London-based Malcolm Grumbridge, a longtime lawyer for the Maxwell family, has declined to comment. –Bloomberg

Meanwhile, speculation has swirled that Maxwell is an unindicted co-conspirator in Epstein’s crimes. According to Attorney General Bill Barr, “…this case will continue on against anyone who was complicit with Epstein. Any co-conspirators should not rest easy,” adding “The victims deserve justice and they will get it.”

“People who should be nervous are the circle of potential individuals who enabled and facilitated this behavior,” said former federal prosecutor Duncan Levin.

High society

Maxwell is the daughter of disgraced publishing tycoon Robert Maxwell – who named the superyacht he died on after her. Following his death, it was revealed that Maxwell had pilfered 350 million pounds ($600 million) from the pension funds of Mirror Group Newspapers.

 

Ghislaine Maxwell and her father Robert, 1984

At 29, Ghislaine was left with an 80,000 pound annual stipend from her trust fund – which would hardly sustain the lifestyle she had grown accustomed to, providing the perfect opportunity to attach herself to Epstein.

After arriving in New York, she fell in with Epstein in the 1990s. Initially romantically involved, they remained close even after they split, with Epstein describing Maxwell as his “best friend” in a 2003 Vanity Fair article.

For years, Maxwell remained a fixture at events, including Chelsea Clinton’s wedding in 2010 and Vanity Fair’s Oscar party, where she was photographed next to Elon Musk. In 2014, she gave speeches about the oceanic conservation work of her TerraMar Project at the United Nations and a TedX conference in Charlottesville, Virginia. –Bloomberg

Meanwhile the question remains; where in the world is Ghislaine Maxwell?

end

Maxwell spotted in LA

(zerohedge)

Ghislaine Maxwell Spotted At LA Burger Joint

Following revelations that former Jeffrey Epstein companion Ghislaine Maxwell had left/been booted from the multimillion dollar oceanfront mansion where she had been living with a younger man in Massachusetts, the mysterious alleged madame, who was missing from public view for months after the Epstein scandal broke, has been spotted in public for the first time.

And no, she wasn’t photographed at some TAO Group club or the Four Seasons or some other high-class establishment: Maxwell was spotted at an In-N-Out Burger in LA.

It’s unclear how long she’s been in California, but observers who spoke with the New York Post said she had already developed a ‘mellow’ California attitude.

Though she reportedly told one fellow diner who wouldn’t stop staring that “I guess this is the last time I’ll be eating here!”

She was seen eating alone with her pet dog.

In what might have been intended as a sign, she was also reportedly reading a book entitled: “The Book of Honor: The Secret Lives and Deaths of CIA Operatives.”

Remember, the conspiracy theory that Epstein’s properties and fortunes were used somehow by US intelligence isn’t new. Alex Acosta, the prosecutor who gave Epstein a supposedly ‘sweetheart’ deal more than a decade before joining the Trump Administration as the Secretary of Labor, once said he acquiesced to the light sentence because he was told that Epstein ‘belonged to intelligence.’

It’s also unclear how or why Maxwell remains free after AG William Barr promised to hold Epstein’s accomplices accountable and not let the case die just because Epstein did. Maxwell has been accused by some of Epstein’s victims of recruiting and grooming them.

Though Maxwell and three female Epstein staff members were named in a new lawsuit filed Wednesday morning by accuser Jennifer Araoz, who says she was repeatedly raped by Epstein in 2002. In her suit, Araoz said Maxwell conspired to ‘facilitate’ sex between Araoz and Epstein.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

It occurs rarely, but when fundamental events trump the upward manipulation during expiry week, stocks tank as traders caught long equity equivalents or short puts get ‘gammaed’ to debt on the downside.

ESUs and Asian stocks slid during the last hour of Asian trading on Wednesday after China reported soft economic data.  Chinese Industrial Production for July grew 4.8% y/y, a 17-year low.  6% was expected.  July Retail Sales increased 7.6% y/y; 8.6% was expected.

After a modest ESU rally into the European open, ESUs and European stocks tumbled on recession fears.  German GDP slipped 0.1% q/q in Q2.  Eurozone Industrial Production, ex-Construction, declined 2.6% y/y in June.  -1.5% was expected.

The Euro Stoxx Banks Price Index tumbled as much as 3%.  Featured losers: RBI -4.81%, Commerzbank -5.3%, DBK -4.1%, UCG -4%, UBS -3.7%, [UK] CYBG -5.3%

The ECB is crushing European banks due to ZIRP.  The prospect of recession with deeper ZIRP created panic selling of European banks on Wednesday.  The British yield curve inverted for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.  Germany’s 10-year yield declined to -0.65%.

@realDonaldTrump at 11:40 ET: “The Fed has got to do something! The Fed is the Central Bank of the United States, not the Central Bank of the World.” Mark Grant  @Varneyco Correct! The Federal Reserve acted far too quickly, and now is very, very late. Too bad, so much to gain on the upside!

ESUs and stocks not only ignored Trump’s latest Fed bash, they rolled over to new lows.  When the afternoon arrived, traders engineered a moderate rally.  The bounce occurred because the S&P 500 Index fell modestly below its 150-day MA.  The index bottomed just below its 150-day MA on August 5 and August 8.  The third time was also a charm that induced a bounce.  After the 20-handle ESU bounce to begin the afternoon, ESUs and stocks rolled over before the VIX Fix.  The ensuing decline stalled at the major indices’ session lows.

The last-hour upward ESU manipulation appeared on schedule.  It peaked at 15:04 ET.  The ensuing decline put major indices at new session lows.  Another rally attempt appeared during the final 33 minutes of trading; Trump fomented it.  The rally aborted within one minute.  ESUs then vacillated feverishly in a 9-handle range as manipulators and sellers fought for control.  Stocks closed at or near their session lows.

@realDonaldTrump: Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut.  Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!

Gold rallied 1.3% while Bitcoin plunged as much as 7.5%.  We’re old enough to remember when propeller heads and cyber-currency dolts proclaimed that Bitcoin was the ‘new gold’.

Who was more chagrined with the US equity tumble on Wednesday: Traders that went gaga getting long for the expected upward expiry manipulation; defensive asset allocators that panicked and covered on Tuesday; or Don Yuan Trump for squandering his cave in on Chinese tariffs?

@Jkylebass: President Trump needs to let chairman xi know that if the ccp brutally cracks down in Hong Kong, the US will remove HK’s special status. Trump needs to warn xi of the consequences of his actions. Pelosi and Rubio will make the decision for Trump if he can’t do it himself.

According to China conduit @HuXijin_GT, Trump got nada from China for his tariff cave in.

@HuXijin_GT: As far as I know, the Chinese side requests that both sides respect the consensus reached at Osaka summit, which is removing all additional tariffs, not delaying some. I doubt Chinese side will resume large-scale purchase of US farm products under current circumstances.

Huawei Technicians Helped African Governments Spy on Political Opponents

Employees embedded with cybersecurity forces in Uganda and Zambia intercepted encrypted communications and used cell data to track opponents, according to a Wall Street Journal investigation

Huawei employees have used the company’s technology and other companies’ products to support the domestic spying of those governments

https://www.wsj.com/articles/huawei-technicians-helped-african-governments-spy-on-political-opponents-11565793017

@StockCats: “Thank you for calling the Plunge Protection Team. We are currently experiencing unusually heavy call volume, but your call is important to us…”

Janet Yellen says yield curve inversion may be false recession signal this time  (Harvey: thanks Janet for that wonderful insight)

“The reason for that is there are a number of factors [Central bank bond corner?] other than market expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields.”…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/janet-yellen-say-yield-curve-inversion-may-be-false-recession-signal-this-time.html

Janet might be correct because the global bond market has not been a freely trade market for over a decade.  Due to the central bank corner on bonds, why would historic correlations be valid now?

Don’t panic over the yield curve inversion: El-Erian

“One, negative rates in Europe… we’ve now got $16 trillion of bonds trading at negative yields because of what’s happening in Europe.  The second distortion is this unhealthy co-dependence between markets and the Fed,”… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/el-erian-dont-panic-over-the-yield-curve-inversion-el-erian-194459718.html

Since the first week of July, the Nasdaq cumulative A/D line has diverged negatively with Nasdaq.  The index hit an all-time high on July 26, 2019.  Conversely, NYSE A/Ds have diverged positively with the NYSE Index since July.  Obviously, the Nasdaq A/D was the correct indicator.  The reason is that theNYSE advances were distorted by interest-rate related issues: Utilities, preferred stocks, ETFs, etc.

The following S&P 500 Index chart with linear regression and standard deviation (SD) bands shows the DJT Rally from his 11/16 victory to now.  The Q4 plunge ended the rally.  The ensuing jump on Powell’s U-turn and PBoC largesse returned the S&P 500 to its linear regression.  This month, the S&P 500 Index is breaking down, which could be construed as a rejection of the attempt to reinstate the rally.  If the S&P falls below its bottom 2nd SD band, a deeper decline than Q4’s tumble is a high probability.

@realDonaldTrump: Good things were stated on the call with China the other day. They are eating the Tariffs with the devaluation of their currency and “pouring” money into their system. The American consumer is fine with or without the September date, but much good will come from the short deferral to December. It actually helps China more than us, but will be reciprocated. Millions of jobs are being lost in China to other non-Tariffed countries. Thousands of companies are leaving. Of course China wants to make a deal. Let them work humanely with Hong Kong first!

ESUs rallied 7.25 to a 0.25 gain on DJT’s tweet.  But ESUs rescinded most of the rally quickly.  So, Trump, 28 minutes after his above tweet, issued more China-related BS to ostensibly boost the ESUs.

 

@realDonaldTrump: I know President Xi of China very well. He is a great leader who very much has the respect of his people. He is also a good man in a “tough business.” I have ZERO doubt that if President Xi wants to quickly and humanely solve the Hong Kong problem, he can do it. Personal meeting?

 

ESUs jumped 13 handles on DJT’s suggestion of a personal meeting with Xi on Hong Kong.  It is clear that Trump is fixated on ESUs and stocks like a day trader – and he’s embarrassed, as we opined he should be, for caving on tariffs while Hong Kong citizens are being clubbed by Xi’s forces.  So, he’s belatedly trying to tie a trade deal with the humane resolution of the Hong Kong rebellion.

Today – A slew of impact economic data is due.  Retail sales will be featured.  Earnings from Walmart (1.22 expected) could impact early trading.  Retailers got hammered on Wednesday.

 

The S&P 500 Index peaked at 2943.31 on Tuesday, a few cents above its 50-day MA.  The same peaking near the 50 DMA occurred last Thursday.  The S&P 500 Index’s 50 DMA is now important resistance.  The S&P 500 Index closed below its 150-DMA after twice bouncing off it during the past seven sessions. A test of the S&P 500 Index’s 200 DMA at 2796 could be coming soon.

 

The huge risk for the next two sessions is the ‘gamma to death’ on the downside possibility that we mentioned at the top of this missive.  As stocks and indices decline, out of the money puts that expire on Friday go into the money.  This forces the selling of something to balance ‘deltas’, the rate of change for a derivative relative to its underlying asset.  Gamma is the second derivative, the acceleration.  As out of the money puts see their delta values go from a fraction of the underlying security to near full value or full value, selling a long asset to keep portfolios neutral accelerates.

 

The titanic risk in the coming weeks & months is that lower Fed rates are ineffective for both stocks and the economy.  An even bigger risk would be that lower rates harm banks and the banking system.

 

The yuan reference rate is 7.0268 (7.0236 exp.).  ESUs are +6.75 at 21:30 ET on DJT’s 2nd tweet.

 

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2944; 100-day MA: 2906; 150-day MA: 2849; 200-day MA: 2796

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,608; 100-day MA: 26,298; 150-day MA: 25,965; 200-day MA: 25,586

 

S&P 500 Index support: 2839, 2830-32, 2822-25, 2810, 2800, 2796, 2780, 2770, 2762

Resistance: 2850, 2860, 2873, 2880, 2894-2900, 2920, 2930, 2943-45, 2955, 2963, 2970, 2980, 2990

 

Expected economic data: Aug Empire Mfg 2.0; Q2 Nonfarm Productivity 1.4%, Unit Labor Costs 1.9%; Aug. Philly Fed Biz Optimism 9.3; July Advance Retail Sales 0.3% m/m, ex-Autos 0.4%, ex-Autos & Gas 0.5%; Initial Jobless Claims 212k, Continuing Claims 1.685m; July Industrial Production 0.1% m/m, Mfg Production -0.3%, Capacity Utilization 77.8%; NAHB Housing Market Index 65; June Biz Inv 0.1%

 

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal

Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2816.78 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender andMACD are negative -a close above 3010.75 triggers a buy signal

Hourly: Trender andMACD are negative -a close above 2912.12 triggers a buy signal

[Obama-appointed] Judge slaps down Dem gambit in Trump impeachment probe

A D.C. federal judge on Wednesday shot down an attempt by House Judiciary Committee Democrats to link their subpoena for former White House counsel Don McGahn to a separate request for secret grand jury information from the Russia investigation after the Justice Department accused them of trying to “game the system.”…   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/judge-dem-trump-impeachment-probe

Biden just 1 point ahead of Warren in new weekly tracking poll [Economist–YouGov]

Biden sits at 21 percent support in the survey, while Warren is close behind at 20 percent. The next candidate is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 16 percent support among voters…

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/457387-biden-just-one-point-ahead-of-warren-in-new-weekly-tracking-poll

New Hampshire poll shows Bernie Sanders (21%) with lead over Biden (15%; Warren 12%)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-hampshire-poll-shows-bernie-sanders-with-lead-over-biden/vi-AAFNjnV

You can’t make this up!  CBS is slamming Trump because he won’t listen to a 16-year old from Sweden.

@CBSNews: “Why should I waste time talking to him”: 16-year-old climate activist Greta Thunberg says President Trump would not listen to her in regard to climate change.   https://cbsn.ws/2YLT0Ol

@andrewklavan: I mean no disrespect to this young lady, but only the left believes that being a child INCREASES your moral and intellectual authority!  That’s actually not the way it works.

The best way to teach your children about taxes is to eat 30 percent of their ice cream.”– Bill Murray

end

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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