AUGUST 22//OPTIONS EXPIRY MONDAY SO A GOOD REASON TO WHACK OUR METALS; GOLD DOWN $6.80 TO $1498.80/SILVER IS DOWN 11 CENTS TO $17.06//SILVER IS STILL HOLDING ITS GAINS DESPITE OPTIONS EXPIRY//GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD ADVANCES A HUGE 9.67 PAPER TONNES DESPITE THE $6.80 DROP IN PRICE. SLV ADVANCES 3.696 MILLION OZ//GERMAN PMI ESPECIALLY MANUFACTURING DISAPPOINTS//BUNDESBANK THROWS COLD WATER ON NEW STIMULUS//FRANCE WARNS BOJO THAT THERE WILL BE NO NEW NEGOTIATIONS ON BREXIT AND THE IRISH BACKSTOP STAYS/ALBERT EDWARDS, STATES THAT THE ENTIRE GLOBE IS HEADING FOR ZERO INTEREST RATES INCLUDING THE USA AND SHORTLY EQUITIES WILL COLLAPSE//USE MANUFACTURING PMI AND SERVICE PMI COLLAPSE//.JOSEPH MIFSUD WAS A USA ASSET AND THUS MUELLER LIED ON HIS FINAL REPORT.

GOLD:$1498.80 DOWN $6.80(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.06 DOWN 11 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1498.40

 

silver:  $17.06

option trading silver:

We are now entering options expiry week for the comex which ends , August 27.2019

OTC/ LBMA expires on Friday, the 30th.

 

What is very interesting is the quantity of silver contracts that are in the money as silver has rise quite nicely over these past two months. There is going to be a lot of silver being exercised and we may see a silver squeeze

(read James Turk/Kingworldnews/yesterday)

You know something is up when you see huge paper advances in the GLD and SLV

(see below)

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 9/45

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,504.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/21/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 08/23/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 24
661 C JP MORGAN 9
685 C RJ OBRIEN 6
686 C INTL FCSTONE 16 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 15 9
800 C MAREX SPEC 2
905 C ADM 6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 45 45
MONTH TO DATE: 6,330

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 45 NOTICE(S) FOR 4500 OZ (0.1399 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  6330 NOTICES FOR 633,000 OZ  (19.688 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1996 for   9,980,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9946 DOWN 195 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10171 UP 31

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE  SIZED 3659 CONTRACTS FROM 238,086 DOWN TO 234,447 DESPITE THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR AUGUST, 2159 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3342 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2159 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2159 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 10.795 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

9.985   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

 

WE HAD ATTEMPTED BANKER COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE SUCCESS..WE ALSO HAD ZERO SPREADING ACCUMULATION. AGAIN SOMETHING IS SCARING OUR SILVER SHORTS TO NO END!!

 

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY:

29,348 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 29,348 CONTRACTS) OR 146.74 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1834 CONTRACTS OR 9.171 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY:  146.74 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 20.95% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1459.26   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3659, DESPITE THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2159 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST A STRONG  SIZED: 1480 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2159 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 3639  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.17 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

WE ALSO HAD NO  SPREADING ACCUMULATION YESTERDAY.  THE LIQUIDATION PHASE OF THEIR OPERATION WILL PROBABLY COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AUGUST 23.

 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.172 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 167% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 9.985 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 679 CONTRACTS, UP TO 595,486 DESPITE THE SMALL $0.30 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /

THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION OPERATION IS NOW IN FULL SWING  ONLY FOR SILVER AS ZERO WAS ACCOMPLISHED IN THAT ENDEAVOUR TODAY. LIQUIDATION OF SPREADING CONTRACTS WILL COMMENCE AROUND THE 23RD OF AUGUST….. THE LIQUIDATION( AND ACCUMULATION) PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD  STOPS FOR THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH /(THE LOSS IN COMEX SILVER OI TODAY WAS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING)

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5201 CONTRACTS: AUGUST 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, OCTOBER: 283, DEC>  4918 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 595,486,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5880 CONTRACTS: 679 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5201 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5880 CONTRACTS OR 588,000 OZ OR 18.28 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A TINY LOSS OF $0.30 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT TINY LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 18.22  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 156,169 CONTRACTS OR 15,616,900 oz OR 485.72 TONNES (16 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9,760 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 485.72 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 485.72/3550 x 100% TONNES =13.68% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3996.427  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 679 DESPITE THE TINY  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($0.30)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5201 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5201 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 5880 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5201 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 679 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 18.28 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.30 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  45 notice(s) filed upon for 4500 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

 

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

WOW!! TWO TRANSACTIONS: ONE LATE LAST NIGHT:

i)A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD

ii)ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD/LATE THIS AFTERNOON

INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY:

 

A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ.

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 3639 CONTRACTS from 238,086 DOWN TO 234,447 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER THIS MONTH AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 2159  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2159 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 3639  CONTRACTS TO THE 2159 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1480 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.440 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ ;AUGUST AT 9.985 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2159 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER YESTERDAY.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.11 POINTS OR 0.11%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 221.32 POINTS OR 0.84%   /The Nikkei closed UP 9.44 POINTS OR 0.05%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .31%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0855 /Oil UP TO 56.11 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.82 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0855 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0862 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

SOUTH Korea/JAPAN

South Korea surprisingly scraps an intelligence pact with Japan as we have rising trade tensions.

(courtesy zerohedge)

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)The Chinese economy is now slowing down dramatically..it is down to 4.6%

(zerohedge)

ii)Last week we reported that China was restricting the importation of gold to its citizens and commercial banks.  This was to stem the outward flow of dollars.  However it did not stop China sovereign form importing gold.\\Now China has again partially lifted the restrictions as they certainly want its citizens to buy gold.

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Italy

An excellent commentary on the challenges facing Salvini as he deals with the technocratic President of Italy and the Brussels picked Conte.  Salvini’s next move is to isolate Conte and force elections.  We will be watching this attentively

(Tom Luongo))

i b)Italy

Five star seeking an alliance with the Democrats.  That has zero percent chance of working as these two parties are polar opposite. This would be a death wish for the 5 star movement.

(zerohedge)

ii)GERMANY

Although the composite PMI was not bad, it was the manufacturing sector that produced terrible results.  The German economy is contracting.

(zerohedge)

iii)GERMANY

The markets do not like this: The Bundesbank pours cold water on German fiscal stimulus hopes

(zerohedge)

iv)UK/FRANCE

That did not last long: France admits that there will be no new negotiations on the BREXIT and the Irish backstop stays.
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)SYRIA/TURKEY

Even though Turkey invaded Syria trying to block the Syrian army from taking Khan Sheikhoun, its operation failed and now the city is liberated and now the next move is to gain control of Idlib province with its capital Idlib city.

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAN

Trump is not going to like this. Iran unveils a domestic made long range air defense system missile

(zerohedge)

IRAQ//ISRAEL

IRAQ claims that they have proof that Israel hit paramilitary bases in a rare attack last week. Netanyahu basically admitted that it was them that attacked Iranian back Shiite areas.

(zerohedge)

END

6.Global Issues

You must pay attention to Albert Edwards..he was the first to predict negative sovereign yields a few years ago and now they total over 19 trillion dollars having these negative yields. He states it is going to be worse as the recession gets hold of things throughout the globe. He is surprised that even junk bonds are in the negative camp..he predicts that the 10 yr rate will approach 0% and then even go below the zero line

(courtesy Albert Edwards/SocGen)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Brazil

Pay attention to this one! Wild fires are blazing throughout Brazil and destroying much of the rain forest.  The rain forest produces 20% of our atmosphere’s oxygen

(Michael Snyder)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)The Iranian economy is in shambles.  Parliament want to remove 4 zeros from the currency as hyperinflation is already started to rear its ugly head into this nation.  The new currency will still be the rial and the toman, with one toman equal to 10 rials.  In early days, one toman was equal to a sovereign in weight. As of this minute the riyal has traded at 116,500 per USA dollar and their inflation rate is around 40%

(Associated Press/GATA)

ii)Switzerland is doing everything they can to lower its value of the Swiss franc by continually lowering ints interest rate

(Bloomberg/GATA)

iii)Again the Indian government is toying with the idea of trying to convert citizens real gold into paper gold. It will never happen.

(London’s Financial Times/GATA)

iv)Simon Black outlines 4 reasons as to why you should hold gold

(Simon Black)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

This is big news,  Markit reports a huge downdraft in manufacturing PMi into contraction levels. It is the lowest print in 19 years,  Not only that but the usually much stronger Service PMI also badly printed.

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Huge number of Wall Street apartments is plaguing the Manhattan real estate market

(zerohedge)

b)If the American Justice system killed Jeffery Epstein is Julian Assange next

(Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan)

c)Dow goes into the green after Boeing jumps on news of record 737 Max production, if only the FCA would give them regulatory clearance.

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)There is something sinister going on here;  Patrick Byrne quits over his uproar on “deep state remarks” concerning the Clinton Foundaiton

(zerohedge)

b) this is big stuff!! I informed you that I thought  Mifsud was a USA asset and that was the reason he hide from everyone. I guess that the Mueller team lied that Mifsud was a Russian asset.

(Gateway)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 679 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 595,486 DESPITE THE TINY LOSS OF $0.30 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5201 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTSOCT: 283  DEC: 4918   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5201 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 5880 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5201 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 679 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  5880 CONTRACTS OR 588,000 OZ OR 18.28 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 929 CONTRACTS as we SURPRISINGLY GAINED 35 contracts.  We had 114 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED ANOTHER STRONG 149 contracts or 14,900 oz of gold that will stand for delivery AS THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GOING AFTER. THEY ARE JUMPING QUEUE AHEAD OF OTHER INVESTORS WAITING TO BE SETTLED UPON. THESE LONGS HAVE REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

The next non active month is September and here the OI ROSE by 26 contracts UP TO 3672.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI ROSE by 354 contracts UP to 47,376.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 45 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  4500 OZ. (0.1399 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3639 CONTRACTS FROM 238,086 DOWN TO 234,447 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 1 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 4 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE LOST 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX…. AS THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THEIR SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 11,171 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 84,868 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 20 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 271.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 7077 CONTRACTS UP TO 112,918.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 279,407  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  261,900  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 22/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

9812.455

Delaware

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
45 notice(s)
 4500 OZ
(0.1399 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
884 contracts
(88400 oz)
2.749 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6330 notices
633000 OZ
19.688 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Delaware: 9812.455  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 9812.455  oz

 

 Today:  very little gold arrives from outside/ 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

 we had 2 adjustments today
i) Out of Brinks  5687.18 oz was adjusted out of the customer Brinks into the dealer account of Brinks
ii) Out of Delaware:  398.942 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of Delaware and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 45 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 9 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6330) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (929 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (45 x 100 oz per contract) equals 721,400 OZ OR 22.438 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (6330 x 100 oz)  + (929)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (45 x 100 oz )which equals 721,400 oz standing OR 22.438 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We GAINED 149  contracts or an additional 14,900 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. OUR BANKING FRIENDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO FIND SCARCE SUPPLIES OF GOLD METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AS THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE

.

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 20.66 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 22.066  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING//

I WOULD ALSO LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE COMEX INVENTORY AT THE REGISTERED LEVEL IS OF THE KILOBAR VARIETY WHICH I BELIEVE IS A PHONY.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  664,361.813 oz or  20.66 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,039,748.135 oz 250.09 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 34 MONTHS 109 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 22 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 961.500 oz
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
602,799.500 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
 5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1996 contracts

9,980,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT: 602,799.500 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  602,799.500  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Delaware:  961.500 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 301,895.740  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of Delaware: 61,454.910 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of Delaware and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware

total dealer silver:  92.892 million

total dealer + customer silver:  313.107 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1996 x 5,000 oz = 9,980,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (1) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1996 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (1)- number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 9,985,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.  

 

WE LOST 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AS THEY MORPHED INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  47,286 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 99,631 CONTRACTS.. we had some spreading accumulation and also banker short covering

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 99,631 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 498 million  OZ 71.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.96% ((AUGUST 22/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.86% to NAV (AUGUST 22/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -/96%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.85 TRADING 14.38/DISCOUNT 3.18

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.50: A HUGE INVENTORY WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LEAVES THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 818.14 TONNES

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

 

 

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AUGUST 22/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 854.84 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 649 TRADING DAYS: 80.56 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 549- TRADING DAYS: A NET 86.11 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 26.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:  A HUGE 1.03 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER LEAVES THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 357.183 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 22/2019:

 

Inventory 383.850 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.02/ and libor 6 month duration 2.03

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .01

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.91%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.95

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.04

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Steady At $1,500 As Russia Buys Another 300,000 Ounces Of Gold In July

  • Russia increased it’s gold reserves by another 300,000 ounces in July and its gold reserves are now worth $101.9 billion
  • Total amount of Russian gold reserves rose 0.4% in July, reaching 71.3 million ounces or 2,218 tons as of August 1
  • Official figures show gold now accounts for 19.6% of the total reserves of the Russian Federation
  • Russia was the world’s largest gold buyer last year and bought nearly 275 tons, the largest amount ever purchased in a single year, according to the World Gold Council
  • Russia is en route to become the world’s fourth largest foreign exchange holder after China, Japan, and Switzerland

News and Commentary

Gold steady, focus on Jackson Hole summit for rate-cut direction

Fed debated bigger rate cut, wanted to avoid appearing on path for more cuts

Fed members affirm ‘mid-cycle adjustment,’ see no ‘pre-set course’ for cuts, minutes show

Surge in corporate debt with negative yields poses risk ‘unlike anything’ investors have ever seen

Russia Buys More Gold in July, Taking Reserves Well Above $100bn

Going for gold: Russia boosts bullion stockpile by 9 tons in July

Ira Epstein Precious Metals Update Video: Gold consolidating

Gold in USD – Last 3 Days

Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

21-Aug-19 1499.65 1503.25, 1235.41 1238.53 & 1351.48 1354.43
20-Aug-19 1502.65 1504.55, 1242.69 1239.60 & 1356.44 1357.86
19-Aug-19 1499.35 1496.60, 1236.66 1235.29 & 1350.76 1348.89
16-Aug-19 1509.05 1515.25, 1242.55 1246.14 & 1361.46 1367.82
15-Aug-19 1517.65 1515.65, 1254.49 1250.26 & 1361.48 1363.78
14-Aug-19 1500.35 1513.25, 1241.69 1253.73 & 1341.61 1356.17
13-Aug-19 1527.20 1498.40, 1265.90 1240.38 & 1363.48 1338.67
12-Aug-19 1501.95 1504.70, 1244.82 1243.63 & 1343.64 1341.74
09-Aug-19 1503.50 1497.70, 1242.19 1240.99 & 1342.02 1338.05
08-Aug-19 1497.40 1495.75, 1230.26 1234.14 & 1335.08 1335.70
07-Aug-19 1487.65 1506.05, 1225.82 1239.33 & 1330.11 1341.44
06-Aug-19 1461.85 1465.25, 1199.59 1201.21 & 1304.85 1311.11
05-Aug-19 1457.45 1465.25, 1199.92 1203.85 & 1307.92 1310.23
02-Aug-19 1436.05 1441.75, 1184.17 1187.28 & 1294.02 1298.44

Gold in USD – Monthly – 10 Years

 

Listen and Watch Jim Rogers Interview Here

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

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Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

The Iranian economy is in shambles.  Parliament want to remove 4 zeros from the currency as hyperinflation is already started to rear its ugly head into this nation.  The new currency will still be the rial and the toman, with one toman equal to 10 rials.  In early days, one toman was equal to a sovereign in weight. As of this minute the riyal has traded at 116,500 per USA dollar and their inflation rate is around 40%

(Associated Press/GATA)

Iran plans currency devaluation

 Section: 

Iran Moves to Strike 4 Zeroes from Its Battered Currency

By Amir Vahdat and Jon Gambrell
Associated Press
Wednesday, August 21, 2019

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran’s president today sent to parliament a bill that would cut four zeroes from the value of the Islamic Republic’s sanctions-battered currency, the rial, as tensions remain high between Tehran and Washington.

By sending the bill to lawmakers, President Hassan Rouhani’s government shows it is serious about an idea mulled for some time in Iran, where people discuss monetary transactions in both rials and — informally but more commonly — in tomans. A toman is worth 10 rials.

If passed by parliament and approved by lawmakers, Iran’s central bank would in effect devalue the rial and rename it as toman. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.apnews.com/c1530ad5a3ff45ae991c7de94deefcfc

END

Switzerland is doing everything they can to lower its value of the Swiss franc by continually lowering ints interest rate

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Switzerland has a new way to impose the world’s lowest interest rate

 Section: 

By Catherine Bosley and Richard Jones
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, August 21, 2019

The Swiss National Bank has a new way of enforcing the world’s lowest interest rate.

With the franc near a two-year high against the euro, the SNB’s decade-old battle against an overly strong currency is back in focus. There’s evidence it has been intervening again and analysts are increasingly betting that it will soon follow with a rate cut.

… 

That would be the first change to the SNB’s new benchmark interest rate, introduced in June as a successor to one based on scandal-plagued Libor. Here’s a look inside the central bank’s machine room. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-21/switzerland-has-a-new…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

END

Again the Indian government is toying with the idea of trying to convert citizens real gold into paper gold. It will never happen.

(London’s Financial Times/GATA)

FT imagines ‘financial literacy’ is defeating gold in India

 Section: 

11:11a ET Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Predictably enough the Financial Times report today that is appended here underplays the Indian government’s unending war against gold, while acknowledging that the government’s paperization campaign has failed so far.

But the report is delightful for its presumption that gold is for the great unwashed while modern financial assets are for more sophisticated people, people gaining “financial literacy.” You know — people who don’t mind that valuations can be changed abruptly by government policy rather than market fundamentals, people who aren’t worried about central bank destruction of interest rates, people who are sure that they couldn’t possibly be scammed by financial houses, and people who can be persuaded that assets can be hypothecated to infinity without anyone ever realizing that they are oversubscribed.

That is, people who believe everything they read the Financial Times.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Rise in Indian Financial Literacy Tarnishes Appeal of Gold

By Benjamin Parkin
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, August 20, 2019

https://www.ft.com/content/f370f4d8-c3e7-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9

That a gold trader in London has to watch the progress of South Asian monsoon rains says something about the depth of India’s love for the precious metal.

Farmers celebrate a good harvest by purchasing gold jewellery, to be gifted at weddings or kept for future generations. Others might buy the precious metal on religious festivals such as Akshaya Tritiya or donate it to a temple. Gold bracelets or nose rings feature prominently across the economic spectrum. Lakshmi, the goddess of wealth, is often depicted exuding a yellowish glow.

… 

India has long been a crucial source of global gold demand, its voracious appetite second only to China’s. For millions of rural Indians, historically without access to bank accounts or even sometimes a steady supply of cash, hoarding gold was often the only way to store wealth.

But demand for the precious metal is waning, threatening to change the India equation for global gold investors. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has embarked on an aggressive programme to formalise the fast-growing economy, improve financial literacy, and increase access to products such as mutual funds. Intended or otherwise, all this has contributed to a steady fall in gold demand, setting off alarm bells in the industry.

From a record high of more than 1,000 tonnes in 2010, consumer demand for gold in India has since fallen by about a quarter to 760 tonnes last year. A recent price rally has accelerated the trend. Global prices this month traded at a six-year high of more than $1,500 a troy ounce, leading some local prices to hit record levels. In value terms, gold imports fell 42 per cent in July from a year earlier.

The most controversial of Mr Modi’s initiatives, known as demonetisation, involved a shock decision in 2016 to invalidate the majority of the country’s cash supply in order to flush out undeclared wealth (of which gold merchants were often ready recipients). That was followed by an overhaul of the indirect tax system.

Meanwhile, a separate scheme to increase access to banking has prompted the share of adults with bank accounts to more than double since 2011.

Newly financially savvy Indians realised they could enjoy higher returns investing in stocks and bonds rather than physical assets such as gold or property. This prompted a boom in mutual fund investing, with assets under management rising to 26 trillion rupees ($364 billion) at the end of May, almost doubling since demonetisation. Meanwhile, the share of physical assets in household savings, including gold, fell.

A consumption boom has also created new competitors. “Earlier, gold was the only ultimate luxury for Indian households,” said Somasundaram PR, managing director of the World Gold Council in India. “Today it is not. A car is a luxury, electronics are a luxury, foreign travel is a luxury. Therefore it is cutting into the wallet.”

This has resulted in frantic efforts by authorities and industry bodies to reinvent gold as a financial asset fit for the government’s vision of a 21st-century digital Indian economy. About 24,000 tonnes of gold lies unused in households and religious institutions, according to a 2018 government report.

Efforts to draw that wealth into the financial system have mostly fallen flat. A so-called gold-monetisation scheme, whereby consumers could deposit their gold with banks and earn money on interest, has failed to catch on. Gold exchange traded funds and sovereign gold bonds, which are not backed by physical gold but track the metal’s price, have also failed to excite investors.

“I don’t see wealth managers very equipped in educating their clients that you should diversify in gold,” said Nitin Bhasin, head of research at brokerage Ambit Capital. “The mindset is still, ‘If I’m buying gold, I might as well buy it in a format that it can serve a dual purpose,” he added, referring to its jewellery form.

One problem for India is that, despite the size of its market, the country lacks a single, transparent benchmark gold price. A plan to fix that by launching a spot gold exchange, modelled after China’s successful Shanghai Gold Exchange, is gathering momentum after a consortium of banks and trade groups recently submitted a blueprint to the government.

Meanwhile, companies are looking to cash in on the shift. Paytm, an Alibaba-backed digital payments start-up, launched a platform to allow users to trade gold from their mobile phones, with the option of delivery.

Paytm also plans to offer sovereign gold bonds as it expands into brokerage services. “It’s a very, very different market that we’ve opened up,” said Nitin Misra, a senior vice-president at Paytm.

India’s deep affinity for gold is not going to change. But the shift in investment patterns is making the precious metal less relevant in the world’s second-largest market. It will require swift action to ensure gold thrives alongside India’s fast-developing financial markets, rather than suffers because of them.

* * *

end

(GATA) Dave Kranzler: Somebody else, not ETFs, took most gold sent to London from Switzerland in July

Submitted by cpowell on 03:39PM ET Thursday, August 22, 2019. Section: Daily Dispatches

11:35a ET Thursday, August 22 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics in Denver discloses today that Switzerland’s unusual export of 90 tonnes of gold to London in July must have involved a lot more than acquisitions by gold exchange-traded funds, the explanation offered by Bloomberg News. (See http://www.gata.org/node/19371)

Kranzler writes: “But fact-checking shows that the number of tonnes of gold in GLD, by far the largest gold ETF, increased by only 23 tonnes during July, from 800 to 823. Assume that the much smaller gold ETFs took in the same amount collectively — an estimate that is more than generous — and ETF gold flow accounts for less than 50% of the gold exported to London.”

So where did the rest of the gold sent from Switzerland to London in July go? Kranzler concludes that there must be other big buyers.

He adds that gold mining companies and especially junior gold miners seem terribly underpriced ahead of what is coming for the metal.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Simon Black outlines 4 reasons as to why you should hold gold

(simon Black)

4 Compelling Reasons To Be Thinking About Gold

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

From time to time it’s important to take a giant step back and take a fresh look at everything that’s going on with a big picture perspective.

The last few weeks has been nothing short of incredible… so many important things happening that have never happened before ever.Let’s take a step back together:

 

1) $50 billion to “elevate your consciousness”

As we discussed on Monday, WeWork filed its formal IPO paperwork in the United States last week, indicating that the company will be worth nearly $50 BILLION when it goes public.

WeWork has never turned a profit. It doesn’t expect to turn a profit. It doesn’t have a plan to turn a profit. And it claims its mission is to ‘elevate the world’s consciousness’.

WeWork owns no real estate. It has almost no assets. In fact, WeWork’s primary asset is the office space it currently leases (i.e. does not own).

And to be fair, they’re leasing a LOT of space. WeWork hopes to eventually lease 40 million square feet of office space.

But at $50 BILLION, investors are essentially paying $1,250 for each square foot of office space that WeWork is LEASING.

That’s almost as expensive as what it costs to BUY in New York City.

Talk about overpaying.

Then there’s are the ridiculous shenanigans of WeWork’s co-founder/CEO Adam Neumann, who has a history of unethical behavior.

Neumann charged his own company nearly $6 million for the “We” trademark earlier this year. He borrowed money from the company to buy real estate that he immediately leased back to WeWork.

And now he’s selling shares in this IPO to investors which have dramatically diminished voting rights… further cementing his power over the company.

So not only are investors dramatically overpaying for a company that has very few assets and burns cash with no end in sight, but they’re willingly giving up control to someone who has a history of enriching himself at their expense.

2) Yikes! Interest rates

But perhaps even more insane than WeWork (if that’s even possible) is what’s happening with interest rates.

Last week the yield on the 30-year US Treasury Bond hit an ALL-TIME LOW, breaking below 2% for the first time ever.

In other words, investors have essentially agreed to loan money to the US federal government for THREE DECADES at less than 2% per year.

That’s pure madness. That rate doesn’t even keep up with inflation… let alone take into consideration that the US government is totally insolvent.

But if you think that’s bad, Germany’s 30-year bond is presently at MINUS 0.12%! In fact, there is not a single German government bond that has a yield above zero right now.

(According to the Financial Times, there’s more than $15 TRILLION worth of bonds in the world right now that have negative yields!)

And next door in Austria, the government has issued a 100-year bond that yields just 1.1%.

100 years! Just think of everything that could happen over that period of time. It was barely a century ago, in fact, that the Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed after World War I and the Austrian republic even came into existence!

And then of course there was the great hyperinflation of the 1920s, the German invasion of 1938, etc.

But I’m sure the next 100 years will be all rainbows and buttercups… more than justifying a 1.1% annualized return that doesn’t even keep up with inflation.

3) Stock market jitters

The past few weeks have seen the US stock market swooning, down 400 points, up 500 points, down 800 points. These are pretty wild swings, suggesting that investors are extremely uncertain and struggling to find anywhere sensible to put their money.

4) The Federal Reserve is extremely aggressive

It’s remarkable that the Federal Reserve (along with most of the world’s central bankers) is cutting interest rates.

By most measurements, the US economy is overheating. Unemployment is at a historic low. Yet the Fed is CUTTING interest rates (which are already WAY below historic averages).

Central banks typically only cut rates in a time of economic weakness, or rising unemployment. Cutting rates during ‘good times’ is incredibly unusual.

This leads me to gold…

None of this is supposed to be happening.

Investors aren’t supposed to overpay for shares of a real estate company that doesn’t actually own any real estate.

They’re not supposed to suffer NEGATIVE interest rates… or record low yields on long-term bonds.

The market isn’t supposed to constantly bounce around like a pinball. The Fed isn’t supposed to be aggressively slashing interest rates when the unemployment rate is near a record low.

The general theme here is chaos and uncertainty. The system is clearly broken. Again, none of this is supposed to be happening.

And that’s what makes gold such a sensible asset to own right now.

Gold is an asset with a 5,000+ year history of value and marketability. But it’s especially valuable in times of chaos and uncertainty.

I’ve been writing about this for quite some time, arguing back in December and January that it was a great time to buy gold.

Gold prices are up 20% since then. But they could still have more room to rise. (And silver could rise a LOT more.)

Stocks are still hovering near all-time highs. Bonds are at all-time highs. Property prices are near all-time highs.

Nearly every major asset class is near an all-time high. But not gold. Gold is still 30% from its all-time high. And silver would need to more than double to reach its all-time high.

Nothing goes up or down in a straight line… and gold has been rising for months. So it’s possible there may be a correction on the way.

But longer term, if this insanity, chaos, and uncertainty continue, gold is poised to do very well

END

For your interest..

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0855/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0862   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 3.11 POINTS OR 0.11%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 221.32 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 9.44 POINTS OR 0.05%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.29/Euro FALLS TO 1.1074

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.24/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106/47/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.11 and Brent: 60.82

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.64%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.34% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.11%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.96: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.97

3k Gold at $1493.25 silver at: 16.97   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 8/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.70

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.47 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9828 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0885 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.64%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.58% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.08%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7638..

Rally Fizzles As Traders Digest FOMC Minutes, Brace For Jackson Hole

US equity futures drifted lower, tracking European and Asian stocks in the red as uncertainty over the outlook for interest rate cuts following the release of the FOMC minutes kept investors on edge, while few traders were willing to trade in size with the Jackson Hole meeting set to begin. The yen and dollar jumped as the euro dropped and the yuan tumbled, while Treasuries edged higher with oil, while gold dipped.

 

The euro and German yields initially nudged initially higher after better-than-expected PMI readings in the euro area helped offset some fears of an imminent European recession. The moves were modest, however, and gains quickly faded as the manufacturing readings remain challenging (especially in Germany).

Some details on the latest PMI report from Goldman:

  • The Euro area Flash composite PMI was up three-tenths in August, against expectations of a decline. The gain only partially offset the decline in July. The breakdown of the Euro area PMI showed a small increase in the services PMI (+0.2pt to 53.4) and a larger one in the manufacturing PMI (+0.5pt to 47.0). Within the manufacturing PMI, employment, new orders and output were higher than their July levels, but remain in contractionary territory.
  • At the country level, the French PMIs recorded gains across all subcomponents, helping to push the composite PMI up 0.8pt to 52.7. New orders increased in both the service and manufacturing sectors. In Germany, the composite PMI rose 0.5pt to 51.4, led by modest gains in the manufacturing output subcomponent. The German services PMI showed a marginal decline; however, the underlying indices were more subdued, with new orders and employment falling more. The press release also noted a sharp fall in business expectations in the services sector.

And visually:

 

As a result, after the glow faded from euro-area PMIs, investors again sought safer assets, pushing Treasuries higher while the yen hit a fresh daily high amid a flight to safe havens. The moves came after South Korea said it would withdraw from an intelligence-sharing agreement with Japan and a senior EU official says discussions with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggest a no-deal Brexit is likely. Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.4%) was kept afloat as Italian President Mattarella holds a barrage of talks with party leaders in search of a coalition to fill the country’s political void in order to pass the 2020 budget later this yearMeanwhile, UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.5%) marginally lags its peers as heavyweight tobacco stocks (Imperial Brands -1.0%, British American Tobacco -1.4%) weigh on the index amid news that  the US House Energy and Commerce Committee launched a probe into four e-cigarette companies, British American Tobacco, Atria Group (MO), Japan Tobacco (2914 JT) and Reynolds American; seeking information on Cos’ research into public heath impacts, marketing practices and promotion of e-cigarette use by adolescents.

As a result, Europe’s STOXX 600 index fell 0.1% in choppy trade, following a 0.5% drop in MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan. The MSCI world equity index was down 0.1%.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped for a second day, led by energy and utility firms, as traders awaited a Friday address by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Markets in the region were mixed, with India retreating and Malaysia climbing. The Topix closed little changed, as chemical producers advanced and electronic companies slipped. The Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.1%, supported by Kweichow Moutai Co. and China International Travel Service Corp. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.8%, with Hong Kong-listed stocks facing their worst earnings decline since 2008. India’s Sensex fell for a third day, dragged down by Reliance Industries Ltd. and HDFC Bank Ltd. The country needs a “significant” fiscal package, a gradual decline in the rupee and more liquidity for the shadow-banking system to ease tight financial conditions, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

While it didn’t impact markets on Wednesday, when US equities posted notable gains, minutes of the Fed’s July meeting showed deep splits among policymakers over whether to cut interest rates last month, though there was some unity in wanting to signal it was not on a preset path to looser policy. The Fed cut rates by 0.25% in July. While a “couple” of Fed members supported a deeper cut of half a percentage point, “several” favored no change at all. That reluctance to loosen policy seems at odds with the expectations for a cut of over 100 basis points by the end of 2020 that are already priced into markets.

Strategists said that the minutes reflected a dissonance between expectations for cuts – fueled by geopolitical concerns such as U.S.-China trade tensions and economic weakness in major economies such as Germany – and the apparently solid fundamentals of the U.S. economy.

“The update last night was a bit of a reality check – maybe don’t get ahead of yourself on what the Fed is going to do,” said David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets. “If you forget about the geopolitical headlines, forget about what the bond markets are doing, and look at the underlying indicators of the U.S. … people are in jobs, earning decent money, and more importantly spending money.”

But beyond the United States, worries about the fragility of the global economy were evident in data from Europe on Thursday. Germany’s private sector continued to struggle in August, suggesting further that Europe’s largest economy is heading for a recession after its economy shrunk between April-June. Euro zone business growth expectations also fell to their weakest in more than six years on trade war fears, even as the expansion picked up a touch in August.

In FX, the slump in the yuan dragged it to an 11-year low, which also sapped appetite for risk, with dealers saying state-owned banks were seen selling dollars to support the yuan.

The Fed minutes also raised the stakes for Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday at the Fed’s annual policy retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming – an event that investors are waiting for with bated breath hoping for some clarity on the Fed’s intentions. U.S. President Donald Trump has been urging larger rate reductions, with proponents of looser policy pointing to the need to lift inflation toward the Fed’s target and thwart fallout from global trade tensions. And those trade worries played out again in currency markets, where the fall in onshore China’s yuan to 7.0752 per dollar, its lowest since March 2008, promoted a rush to perceived safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen. The yen advanced by 0.2% to 106.41 yen, nearing last week’s eight-month low of 105.05 yen. The euro slipped to a daily lows as commodity and Scandinavian currencies deepened losses.

 

Currency traders said that while the Chinese economy’s slowing growth meant pressure had been building on the renminbi from long before, the new fall suggested Beijing was prepared to use the currency as leverage as trade tensions simmer.

“This indicates that this is an instrument of the Chinese government in the trade war. It is allowing for renminbi weaknesses,” said Thu Lan Nguyen, FX strategist with Commerzbank in Frankfurt. “It is an indication that they are expecting the trade war to continue, to last longer than they anticipated last year.”

In geopolitics, North Korea carried out live fire drills by bombing replicas of South Korea’s F-15K fighter jets, surface to air missiles and a radar. Across the border, South Korea stated they will not be renewing their intelligence accord with Japan, according to the Blue House. Iran displayed a new locally built mobile missile defence system, reported via Iranian news agencies. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif says he is prepared to work on France’s proposals regarding a nuclear deal.

In commodities, oil prices dipped on worries about the global economy and bigger-than-expected buildups in oil product inventories in the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent crude futures rose 0.3%, or 18 cents, to $60.48, while U.S. crude gained 23 cents to $55.91 a barrel.

Expected data include jobless claims and PMIs. Gap, Intuit, Salesforce, and VMware are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures unchanged at 2,929
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 374.24
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 152.02
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 492.13
  • Nikkei up 0.05% to 20,628.01
  • Topix up 0.04% to 1,498.06
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 26,048.72
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 2,883.44
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 36,660.18
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,501.81
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 1,951.01
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to -0.657%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1102
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.9 bps to 0.985%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to 0.109%
  • Brent futures up 0.2% to $60.44/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,499.52
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 98.24

Top Overnight News

  • German manufacturers are reinforcing concern that Europe’s largest economy is headed into a recession. A nationwide gauge showed orders at factories and services companies dropping at the fastest pace in six years, and more companies now expect output to fall than rise over the next 12 months. That’s the first time that’s happened since 2014, according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index from IHS Markit
  • Federal Reserve officials viewed their interest-rate cut last month as insurance against too-low inflation and the risk of a deeper slump in business investment stemming from uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade war.
  • Angela Merkel’s challenge to Boris Johnson to find a Brexit solution in the next 30 days sounds impossible. But while both sides are talking tough, officials in private say there’s still time to salvage a deal
  • The prospects for forming a new coalition in Italy improved after the first day of consultations as most of the smaller parties and independent lawmakers told Mattarella they’re against a snap election and would eventually favor a new government.
  • The French government expects the U.K. to leave the European Union without a withdrawal agreement, an official in President Emmanuel Macron’s office said, meaning the immediate imposition of border controls after Brexit at the end of October
  • The IMF executive board recommended removing the age- limit for the fund’s managing director, paving the way for Kristalina Georgieva the European Union-backed candidate to replace Christine Lagarde
  • Oil climbed as attention turned from expanding American fuel stockpiles to the prospects for monetary easing as the world’s top central bankers gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming
  • South Korea said it would withdraw from an intelligence-sharing agreement with Japan, extending their feud over trade measures and historical grievances into security cooperation.
  • Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella will meet with the country’s main political leaders on Thursday in an effort to carve out a viable governing coalition after Rome’s government – – an alliance between the hard-right League and the anti- establishment Five Star Movement — collapsed earlier this week

Asian equity markets traded mixed as the region failed to sustain the early momentum from Wall St where sentiment was underpinned by strong retailer earnings and after the FOMC minutes did little to alter the landscape as they showed a divide among officials on rate cuts. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (U/C) were both higher at the open with tech and energy the outperformers on the busiest day of the earnings season in Australia, while Tokyo trade was less decisive as price action eventually reflected a choppy currency and after a lack of progress in talks between Japanese and South Korean Foreign Ministers to resolve the ongoing spat. Hang Seng (-0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were subdued amid CNY weakness and as Hong Kong’s property sector suffered the brunt of the Hong Kong protests with developers said to be reducing prices to support sales, although losses in the mainland have been cushioned by the PBoC’s liquidity efforts. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially unchanged amid similar uneventful trade in T-notes, but later saw mild support after firmer demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for long end JGBs and as risk tone began to deteriorate.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Faces Worst Earnings Recession Since 2008 Crisis
  • Indonesia Surprises With Second Rate Cut to Support Growth
  • Hedge Fund Outflows of $55.9 Billion Make Dismal 2018 Look Good

European stocks have given up the earlier PMI-induced gains [Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%] as the sentiment seen from firmer EZ metrics across the board failed to persist, and amid little follow-through from FOMC Minutes. Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.4%) is kept afloat as Italian President Mattarella holds a barrage of talks with party leaders in search of a coalition to fill the country’s political void in order to pass the 2020 budget later this year. Meanwhile, UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.5%) marginally lags its peers as heavyweight tobacco stocks (Imperial Brands -1.0%, British American Tobacco -1.4%) weigh on the index amid news that  the US House Energy and Commerce Committee launched a probe into four e-cigarette companies, British American Tobacco, Atria Group (MO), Japan Tobacco (2914 JT) and Reynolds American; seeking information on Cos’ research into public heath impacts, marketing practices and promotion of e-cigarette use by adolescents. Moreover, broker downgrades for BHP (-1.7%), Anglo American (-2.0%) and Rio Tinto (-0.4%) adds further pressure on the index. Sectors are almost all in the red with cyclical stocks faring worse than defensives, in-fitting with the current risk tone. In terms of individual movers, Thyssenkrupp (+5.4%) shares jumped to the top of the Stoxx 600 amid reports that parties interested in Co’s elevator unit include Advent, Apollo, CVC, Carlyle, KKR and possibly EQT, according to Manager Magazin. Meanwhile, BBVA (+1.3%) and Caixabank (+1.7%) benefit from broker upgrades at HSBC

Top European News

  • Italy’s President Enters High-Stakes Talks in Bid to End Crisis
  • Osram Board Agrees AMS Can Make Offer to Rival Bain- Carlyle
  • Distressed-Debt Hedge Fund Mudrick Starts Expanding Into Europe

In FX, the euro was Not the strongest G10 currency, but the Euro perked up in wake of the flash Eurozone PMI surveys that were firmer than forecast across the board. Eur/Usd started to climb after the French preliminary prints and then crossed 1.1100 and beyond when German and pan headlines maintained the recovery trend, but faded again before testing offers reportedly waiting at 1.1120. Note also, hefty option expiries between 1.1095 and the big figure may be exerting a gravitational pull given 1.65 bn rolling off at the NY cut.

  • GBP/JPY – The other major outperformers as the Dollar continues to drift post-FOMC minutes that failed to provide any further or clearer insight on guidance for the September policy meeting. Indeed, the DXY remains tightly bound just above the 98.000 handle and inside relatively narrow confines for the week so far (between 98.451-115), awaiting Fed chair Powell for clearer pointers (hopefully) at Jackson Hole on Friday. Meanwhile, Sterling is still seemingly taking the positive view that there is time left (albeit limited and decaying) to resolve the Irish backstop stalemate and reach some sort of Brexit deal before October 31, with Cable keeping its head above 1.2100, but capped by the 21 DMA circa 1.2154 and Eur/Gbp pivoting 0.9150 even though the single currency is underpinned as noted above. Elsewhere, the safe-haven Yen retains an underlying bid around 106.50 amidst ongoing global trade and geopolitical tensions after tough talks between the US and Japan failed to produce a breakthrough and SK not renewing its intelligence sharing agreement with Japan.
  • NZD/AUD/CAD – All on the backfoot vs their US counterpart as the Kiwi loses more ground after failing to sustain recovery momentum above 0.6400 and the Aussie likewise following fleeting bounces over 0.6800, but also undermined by CBA PMIs overnight showing sub-50 manufacturing and composite readings. The Loonie is holding up a bit better after Wednesday’s frothy Canadian CPI, but unable to rally too far beyond 1.3300 ahead of wholesale trade data later today.
  • SEK/NOK – Also weaker, partly on fundamentals and technically as Swedish unemployed jumped in SA terms and Norway trimmed its Q3 oil investment estimate, with Eur/Sek back up above 10.7000 and Eur/Nok hovering nearer the top of 9.9550-9145 trading parameters against the backdrop of faltering risk appetite.
  • EM – Widespread losses against the Greenback, but Cnh and Try depreciation looks particularly eye-catching as the offshore Yuan teeters around 7.1000 amidst more warnings from China that retaliation is in the pipeline if the US presses ahead with extra tariffs on September 1st. Meanwhile, the Lira continues to list and tested 100 DMA support circa 5.7922 even though Turkish consumer sentiment picked up in August.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are modestly firmer on the day with the former around the 56/bbl mark, whilst the latter remains near the 60.50/bbl level having found a base at 60/bbl. News flow has been light thus far for the complex with price action likely to be dictated by macro developments/sentiment heading into Fed Chair Powell’s speech tomorrow. Meanwhile, the WTI/Brent Arb widened to around USD 4.60/bbl vs. USD 3.60 earlier in the week. ING notes that “it does appear that the relative strength in WTI is starting to raise concerns over how it may impact demand for US oil from overseas buyers”. Elsewhere, gold is marginally softer and pivots on either side of 1500/oz ahead of ECB Minutes and as the Jackson Hole Symposium goes on underway, with Fed Chair Powell due to speak tomorrow. Copper prices declined further below the 2.6/lb mark as risk appetite somewhat waned.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 216,000, prior 220,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.71m, prior 1.73m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 61.2; Bloomberg Economic Expectations, prior 55
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 50.5, prior 50.4; Markit US Services PMI, est. 52.8, prior 53
  • 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.3%, prior -0.3%
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 1.2, prior -1

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

So there we have it, another one of those ‘where were you when…’ moments in the era of crazy low bond yields with the world’s first-ever zero coupon 30-year bond issued yesterday. Indeed, the 30y Bund ended up pricing at -0.11%; however, the big talking point was the anaemic demand at the auction with less than half of the offering being taken up by investors, meaning the Bundesbank had to retain the balance. The real subscription rate as a result was just 0.43x, which compares with 0.86x at the July auction. A lot was made of this being a very weak auction although it’s still hard to ignore the fact that €824m of the negative yielding ultra-long bonds were taken up by investors.

That auction came on a day when bond markets were a bit weaker. The whole Bund curve is still negative; however, yields were up a couple of basis points while Treasury yields also closed higher after the release of the FOMC minutes. Two-year yields rose +6.3bps, while 10-year yields rose +3.4bps.That sent the curve back down to just 1.0bp – a level it’s holding this morning – and dangerously close to inversion again.

The most immediately-relevant takeaway from the minutes was that there is minimal support for a 50bps cut in September, and markets moved to price in only a 12% chance of the bigger cut. That’s down from 20% before the minutes and from as high as 50% last week, though a 25bps cut remains fully priced. The minutes also suggested that policymakers were attentive to the trade war risks and were not caught off guard by the recent escalation, saying that “participants were mindful that trade tensions were far from settled.” As for the Fed’s longer-term policy review, there were several indications that the discussions are accelerating, as policymakers reportedly discussed using QE “more aggressively” and also analyzed “makeup strategies.” The latter “could be designed to promote a 2 percent inflation rate, on average, over some period,” which would have dovish implications for rates. While we’re on the Fed, President Trump continued his relentless attack on twitter, calling Powell “a golfer who can’t putt, has no touch”. To be fair, the same could be said for 99% of amateur golfers.

The moves in bond markets reflected a generally more upbeat tone across markets more broadly. That was certainly the case in equities where last night the S&P 500 closed +0.82%. The NASDAQ and DOW also finished +0.90% and +0.93%, respectively, with cyclical sectors generally leading gains. Favourably-viewed corporate earnings results in the retail sector from Target (+20.55%) and Lowe’s (+10.35%) helped. Nevertheless, the reality is that equities have just chopped around in a range since the plunge early in August and sit roughly where they were two weeks ago. HY credit spreads also had a strong day, with cash spreads trading -11bps and -10bps tighter in the US and Europe, respectively.

Overnight, Asian markets are quickly losing momentum although it’s not entirely obvious what’s driving the reversal from the highs. The Nikkei (-0.04%), Hang Seng (-0.87%), Shanghai Comp (-0.18%) and Kospi (-0.38%) are all lower having opened with decent gains. Futures on the S&P 500 (-0.03%) are also back to flat as we go to print.

Moving on. While markets have had very little to feed on the way of economic data this week, the good news is that we’ve got the global flash August PMIs today, which will give us a fresh opportunity to test the global growth pulse. We’ve already had the data out in Japan this morning where the composite rose half a point to 51.7, helped by a 1.6pt increase in the services reading to 53.4 while the manufacturing reading remained in contractionary territory at 49.5, albeit up 0.1pt from July. We’ll get the data for France, Germany and the Euro Area shortly and the consensus expects the composite reading for the Euro Area to have deteriorated slightly from 51.5 to 51.2, with the manufacturing and services readings expected to print at 46.2 and 53.0, respectively. A reminder that the July numbers confirmed a reversal of the improvement seen in June with the composite reading roughly consistent with a low +0.2% qoq rate of growth. This data of course will be the single biggest growth data point ahead of the ECB meeting in 3 weeks’ time. We should note that we’ll also get the data in the US where expectations are for a 50.5 manufacturing and 52.8 services print.

In other news, Italian assets continue to perform well despite persistent political uncertainty. Prime Minister Conte is scheduled to meet with leaders from the League and Five Star today, to see if he can find a prospective government and avoid fresh elections. Italian assets outperformed their European counterparts yesterday with the FTSE MIB finishing +1.77% versus +1.21% for the STOXX 600 while BTPs rallied -4.0bps and now sit at the lowest since October 2016.

Elsewhere, the CBO updated their US economic and budget forecasts. They now expect the fiscal deficit to widen to $960bn this year, up from their prior estimate of $896bn from May. That will be worth around 4.5% of GDP, worse than their prior forecast for 3.9%. The worse outlook will also result in trillion-dollar deficits beginning in 2020, two years earlier than before. On the bright side, the CBO raised their 2020 GDP growth forecast by 0.4pp to 2.1%, though they left 2019 at 2.3%.

Finally, the economic data didn’t add much but for completeness, US existing home sales rose to 5.42mn for July, marginally beating expectations for 5.40mn. That took the trend to 2.5% mom, and the prior month was revised upward slightly. Mortgage applications, a more forward-looking metric, fell -0.9%.

Looking at the day ahead now, outside of the PMIs the other data scheduled for release is August CBI survey data in the UK and August consumer confidence data for Euro Area, before jobless claims, July leading index and August Kansas Fed manufacturing survey is released in the US. We’ll also get the ECB minutes and of course the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium kicks off tonight but with Powell not due to speak until tomorrow.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.11 POINTS OR 0.11%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 221.32 POINTS OR 0.84%   /The Nikkei closed UP 9.44 POINTS OR 0.05%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .31%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0855 /Oil UP TO 56.11 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.82 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0855 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0862 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

SOUTH Korea/JAPAN

South Korea surprisingly scraps an intelligence pact with Japan as we have rising trade tensions.

(courtesy zerohedge)

South Korea Scraps Intelligence Pact With Japan Amid Rising Trade Tensions

Most Americans could be forgiven for thinking that the ‘trade war’ is really only impacting the US and (maybe) China. After all, it was President Trump’s belligerent rhetoric about holding China accountable that helped him win in 2016 in the first place. But what is less known, is that Trump’s angry trade rhetoric aggravated a bunch of other longstanding trade spats, most notably, the now-emergent trade spat between Japan and South Korea, which is threatening to seriously disrupt trade throughout the Pacific Rim region.

Now, according to the Nikkei Asian Review, in the latest sign of how the relationship between the two countries has deteriorated, South Korea has decided not to extend an intelligence-sharing agreement with Japan.

The decision was reportedly made at a National Security Council meeting on Thursday at South Korea’s “Blue House.” South Korea said it no longer believes the agreement is “in its national interest” after Japan excluded South Korea from the “so-called” “White Countries’ list”.

Kim Yu-keun, the National Security Office’s deputy director, said: “We thought that it is not in our national interest to maintain the agreement,” adding that, “We will inform the Japanese government through diplomatic channels by the deadline of the extension, according to the agreement.”

Kim said: “The government estimated that the Japanese government caused a critical change in the circumstances of security cooperation between the two countries by excluding our country from the so-called white countries’ list…with no clear evidence, on Aug. 2.”

For the record, that ‘white countries’ list? It’s not what it sounds like.

The timing of the pact’s termination is also interesting because of North Korea resuming its short-range missile tests, as well as its threats to call off peace talks with the South and the US.

Yoshihide Suga, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, late last month said that Tokyo wanted to maintain the pact, known as the General Security of Military Information Agreement.

The neighbors signed the agreement in 2016 out of a desire to cooperate in the face of an increasing threat from North Korea. The agreement stipulates how the countries can share military intelligence.

SK’s decision not to extend the pact follows a meeting between the two countries foreign ministers in Beijing, where South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha demanded that Japan rescind its decision.

The decision came one day after South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha met with her Japanese counterpart, Taro Kono, in Beijing. South Korea’s foreign ministry said Kang had expressed regret in regard to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s decision to exclude South Korea from its “whitelist” of trusted trading partners earlier this month. She urged Tokyo to withdraw the decision that makes it more cumbersome for South Korean companies to import certain materials from Japan.

Unsurprisingly (since NAR is a Tokyo-based business newspaper), most of the analysts quoted in the piece seem to think South Korea’s decision is a bad idea.

Analysts say Seoul should be careful about escalating the feud to include the intelligence agreement, which benefits both countries.

“We had better keep the agreement,” Lee Su-hoon, a professor at Kyungnam University and a former ambassador to Japan, said at a forum. “We need military information. However, sharing high-class information should be based on trust.”

Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul said in the report: “The Moon government may see this decision as domestically popular and as a symbolic, low-cost way of signaling resolve to Tokyo. However, this move will raise international concerns that Seoul misreads the regional security situation and is presently unwilling to shoulder its responsibility for improving Korea-Japan relations.”

The relationship between the two countries has been deteriorating since even before a South Korean court ruled that Japanese companies must pay reparations to Koreans forced to work in Japan during WWII, which Japan has claimed goes against a treaty signed in 1965, that supposedly settled the issue of war reparations.

end

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

The Chinese economy is now slowing down dramatically..it is down to 4.6%

(zerohedge)

 

Chart Of The Day: China’s Economy Slows To 4.6% In June

According to Fathom Consulting, a global independent macro research consultancy, it’s proprietary China Momentum Indicator 2.0 has slowed to 4.6% in June, the lowest reading since Aug. 2016.

There is also a growing gap between the China Momentum Indicator 2.0 at 4.6% and official GDP data at 6.2%. Might suggest China’s economy hasn’t yet bottomed, could continue to decline through 2H19 into 1H20.

Gary Cohn, the former chief economic advisor to Donald Trump, has said the slowdown predates the trade war and reflects a strategic decision by China to rebalance the economy.

Fathom notes that China’s economy was even slowing before the rebalancing.

 

The global macro research firm said, “with the consumer share of total import demand on a downward trend since 2016, we also find little evidence to suggest that China is successfully rebalancing.”

To combat dangerous crosscurrents of the trade war disrupting global supply chains in and out of China, Chinese policymakers resorted to the same playbook as before, pump the economy with record amounts of the stimulus earlier in the year.

Currency depreciation came into the picture when President Trump escalated the trade war by raising tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion of Chinese goods in May. Then a massive devaluation of the renminbi followed in early August, when the president slapped 10% tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, effective Sept. 1.

“Trade talks are continuing, and during the talks the U.S. will start, on Sept. 1, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country…We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one!” Trump said in a tweet last month.

Since the trade war began last March, the renminbi has weakened 13% against the U.S. dollar, neutralizing some of the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from China.

Currency devaluation undermines hopes for a soft landing, while further infuriating the Trump administration who has recently branded China as a currency manipulator.

And for more bad news, China has said its rebalancing will continue through 2020 and offered a pessimistic view of how Beijing won’t sign a trade deal until after the November 2020 election. This would almost guarantee China is allowing its export economy to weaken while stimulating its domestic economy, all in the attempt to trigger a recession in the U.S. to diminish President Trump’s probabilities of getting reelected.

END
Last week we reported that China was restricting the importation of gold to its citizens and commercial banks.  This was to stem the outward flow of dollars.  However it did not stop China sovereign form importing gold.\\Now China has again partially lifted the restrictions as they certainly want its citizens to buy gold.
(zerohedge)

China Partially Lifts Restrictions On Gold Imports

Last week a surprising report emerged from Reuters, namely that as part of its escalating capital controls, Chinese authorities have curbed private gold imports since May as the trade war escalated in a move that could be aimed at curbing outflows of dollars and bolstering its yuan.

According to sources, China’s gold imports were down 300-500 tonnes, with around $15-$25 billion, since May, as the PBOC had for several months curtailed or not granted import quotas to commercial banks responsible for most of the gold that enters the country

Fast forward to today, when Reuters reports that China has partially lifted restrictions on imports of gold, according to bullion industry sources. According to the report, the central bank began to issue quotas again last week, but for lower amounts of gold than considered normal, “three people with direct knowledge of the matter in London and Asia said – without specifying exact amounts.”

“Some (quotas) have been given,” said one of the sources, adding that these were “less than usual.” It’s a “partial lift” of the restrictions, another source said.

China has become a key swing driver in gold prices: it is now the world’s biggest importer of gold, with around 1,500 tonnes of metal worth some $60 billion – equivalent to one-third of the world’s total supply – entering the country last year. Chinese demand for gold jewelry, investment bars and coins has trebled in the last two decades as the country has rapidly become wealthier. China’s official gold reserves meanwhile rose fivefold to nearly 2,000 tonnes, according to official data.

The recent sharp move higher in gold coincided with the sharp escalation in the currency war between the US and China, prompting many to speculate that Chinese residents had been aggressively buying up the yellow metal, in the process adding further downward pressure on the yuan.

The last time Beijing took steps to curb capital outflows was when its currency weakened in the aftermath of the 2015 devaluation when the PBOC enforced restrictions on gold imports in 2016. The result was a surge in cryptocurrencies as Chinese savers took to the digital currency in lieu of gold purchases.

While no clear data for capital outflows exist, a measure from China’s balance of payments called errors and omissions points to $88 billion leaving in the first three months of this year, the most on record.

As we reported previously, Chinese customs figures showed the country imported 228 tonnes less gold in May and June – the last month for which data is available – than in the same two months of 2018. By mid-August, up to 500 tonnes less gold had entered China since May than over the same period last year, people in the bullion industry said.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Italy

An excellent commentary on the challenges facing Salvini as he deals with the technocratic President of Italy and the Brussels picked Conte.  Salvini’s next move is to isolate Conte and force elections.  We will be watching this attentively

(Tom Luongo))

Italy And Salvini Face Real Crisis Now

Authored by Tom Luongo,

With the resignation of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte the future of Italy is now up in the air. There are many things that come into play with Conte resigning before the No-Confidence vote tabled by Lega Leader Matteo Salvini could take place.

The euro popped 40 pips, back above support at $1.11 on the news. The forex markets realize this was a Brussels-friendly move.

 

Conte didn’t want to chance getting voted out of office. That makes it difficult for President Sergei Mattarella to call for a new government without snap elections. The Italian Senate would have formally rebuked Mattarella’s compromise pick for Prime Minister, Conte.

Conte was there to effectively keep the children in line – Euroskeptics Lega and Five Star Movement (M5S). So, Conte used his time to take the bully pulpit and excoriate Salvini for twenty minutes. This gives the U.S. and European media plenty of chum to make their case against Salvini.

You will hear a lot about how non-partisan Conte did this for the sake of Italy to stop the mad, selfish and unprofessional Salvini from taking power.

It’s good political theater but it’s as disingenuous as the day is long and very much the truth. No one in power in Brussels wants what Salvini is selling. Not many in Rome do either.

Because had he not resigned Mattarella could have faced impeachment for not going to elections. He only relented to let M5S and Lega take power under that threat last year.

So Conte has set the stage for Mattarella to take charge again. They will put the veneer of legitimacy on this process to protect Italy from Salvini. In reality, the only people they are protecting are in Brussels.

Remember, Salvini wants to circumvent EU budget controls through issuing the mini-BOT parallel currency. And current polling puts him at just below the threshold to take power outright.

The downstream effects of this are myriad but there is one big fulcrum on which this hinges.

M5S Leader Luigi Di Maio is now placed to play kingmaker. He can either do a deal with Matteo Renzi and the Democrats (PD), who M5S was formed to oust from power, or he can drag things out to attack Salvini for putting Italy in turmoil and hope for the best in an election.

Mattarella will push for a caretaker government to keep Salvini from power and marginalize M5S as much as possible. The goal is to forestall elections for as long as possible.

That latter path leads to Di Maio trying to shift opinion polls back on his side. Not likely, but hey, deluded people try to manipulate events against the trend all the time.

Salvini forced this crisis because of his persuading the Italian people that not only his future plans are better but so would be his leadership. The coalition has been stymied by both Conte and M5S and M5S’s poll numbers reflect their mission creep.

When that fails, Di Maio will have to make a deal with PD or face elections which will see M5S out of power.

And if he makes that deal, which Brussels and Rome want him to bit one, it will be the beginning of the end of M5S.

But Di Maio is now in the same position that another reformer turned toady was in after he betrayed his country in 2015, Greece’s Alexis Tsipras.

To remind everyone, Tsipras is now out of a job and one of the most hated people in Greece. So complete was his sell out of the Greek people, he ushered back into power a center-right government in July.

Five Star was born out of the disgust Italians had for its leadership in Rome and the technocratic overthrow of Silvio Berlusconi’s government back in 2011.

It was a pure protest party, especially when Beppe Grillo was its figurehead. Now, it’s making deals to stay in power with those same technocrats.

Di Maio has to think very carefully about where things go from here.

Salvini is still in the driver’s seat because a betrayal by M5S of that nature will see Italy ground into a paste. Look no farther than the English Channel to see what Brussels wants to to do the Brits over Brexit. IF you think Italy will be spared after their dalliance with insurrection you are terminally naive.

And Salvini not being a part of that works to his advantage going forward. Sometimes the best way to win a battle is to retreat and let your enemies over-extend themselves.

Di Maio wasn’t a strong enough leader to keep the disparate factions within M5S on mission. He will now pay the price for his lack of vision.

*  *  *

END

Italy

Five star seeking an alliance with the Democrats.  That has zero percent chance of working as these two parties are polar opposite. This would be a death wish for the 5 star movement.

(zerohedge)

As Italy’s Political Crisis Worsens, Five Star Eyes Alliance With Democrats

Now that Italian President Sergio Mattarella has – at least for now – denied League leader Matteo Salvini the opportunity to become prime minister and refuses to rush into new elections that would almost certainly see Salvini emerge victorious as Italy’s next PM, Salvini’s former partner, Luigi di Maio is discussing the possibility of forming a coalition with the establishmentarian Italian Democratic Party.

The tie-up would be a strange one, even by the standards of Italian politics, as M5S (the acronym for the Five-Star Movement) has sought to market itself as an anti-establishment party – the one characteristic that it shared with Salvini’s conservative, anti-immigration League.

The Democrats expressed their desire to join forces with M5S after Mattarella gave the parties the green light on Thursday.

According to Bloomberg, Mattarella holds the power to either appoint the next prime minister or call early elections.

Luigi Di Maio

The talks follow the anticipated resignation of Giuseppe Conte, Italy’s former Prime Minister, earlier this week.

Conte’s resignation came after Salvini withdrew support for the government. After months of political uncertainty, Salvini made his bid to consolidate power by pushing for fresh elections, intended to capitalize on the League’s climbing popularity.

A coalition between the Democrats and M5S would deny Salvini his chance to become premier, at least in the short term. But the unlikely alliance between two parties that have little in common and have spent much of the past few years criticizing each other.

Opportunistic political alliances are hardly rare in Italy. But a link between the Dems and M5S would mark a compromise of M5S’s anti-establishment principles, something that could help burnish Salvini’s anti-establishment principles.

GERMANY

Although the composite pMI was not bad, it was the manufacturing sector that produced terrible results.  The German economy is contracting.

(zerohedge)

“They Are Not Looking At The Data”: Analysts Brace For German Recession As Sentiment Turns Dire

There was some good and some not so good news in today’s German PMI data.

First, the good: the composite PMI rose 0.5pt to 51.4, beating expectations of another decline, and led by modest gains in the manufacturing output subcomponent even as the services PMI showed a marginal decline.

However, the underlying indices were more subdued, with new orders and employment falling more. The press release also noted a sharp fall in business expectations in the services sector. Backlogs of work across both sectors fell for a 10th month and the pace of hiring slowed, with employment in manufacturing declining at the fastest pace in seven years.

Perhaps more concerning was the outlook, which is now outright recessionary as for the first time since 2014, more companies now expect output to fall than rise over the next 12 months.

The problem for Germany is that with its manufacturing sector contracting at a dismal rate, Europe’s most powerful economy has no buffer left – as a reminder, last week we learned that the economy shrank in the second quarter and real-time sentiment indicators confirm that another contraction in Q3 is virtually inevitable, guaranteeing a technical recession.

The persistent German weakness, driven in particular by mounting global trade tensions, car industry woes and slowing demand in China, certainly doesn’t bode well for the broader euro area. The silver lining: whereas European manufacturing is now screaming recession, at least services remain well in expansionary territory. However, with the spread now at all time highs, it is only a matter of time before services tumble.

Indeed, while the headline German composite PMI unexpectedly rebounded modestly in August to 51.4 from 50.9, the manufacturing index remained far below 50, signaling a seventh month of contraction.

Meanwhile, analysts continue to clamor for Merkel to do something besides lip service to the coming recession, and unleash fiscal stimulus: “Somehow they are not looking at this data,” said ING economist Carsten Brzeski. “The German government should react. We have this stagnation of the entire economy now and we really need some fiscal stimulus.”

Well, the German government said it will react – we just need a deep recession first, and one is clearly approaching right on schedule. One reason Germany may ignore the issue is because the ECB is already “on top” of it, with the central bank widely expected to add monetary stimulus as soon as next month by cutting rates and/or restarting QE.

Commenting on the latest dismal data out of German, Bloomberg’s chief European economist showed a trace of optimis, saying “there’s a little light at the end of the tunnel for Germany’s economy. The PMI — a trusted gauge of economic activity — picked up a little in August. The big risk is that a fresh blow to manufacturing materializes — the U.S. goes ahead with tariffs on EU car exports, for example — or that weakness in the industrial sector spreads to services.”

Others, however, were far more pessimistic: “Germany remains a two-speed economy, with ongoing growth of services just about compensating for the sustained weakness in manufacturing,” according to Markit’s Phil Smith. “Although improving slightly, the survey’s output data haven’t changed enough to dispel the threat of another slight contraction in gross domestic product in the third quarter.”

end

GERMANY

The markets do not like this: The Bundesbank pours cold water on German fiscal stimulus hopes

(zerohedge)

“No Need Right Now”: Bundesbank Pours Cold Water On German Fiscal Stimulus Hopes

One of the pillars of support that has helped propel European stocks higher in recent days was violently yanked this morning, when Bloomberg reported that Germany’s Bundesbank refuted repeated trial balloons by Spiegel, saying it doesn’t see a need for fiscal stimulus at this time, even though it expects the economy to shrink again this quarter.

While Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said it would be prudent to prepare measures that could be implemented if the outlook worsens, the economy currently doesn’t require additional support, the Bloomberg sources said, asking not to be identified revealing internal deliberations.

As Bloomberg adds, Bundesbank economists predicted that German output could fall 0.1% in the third quarter, the same contractionary pace as in the previous quarter, which would result in a technical recession.

As noted earlier, Germany’s economic contraction, highlighted earlier on Thursday by a continued slump in the country’s manufacturing PMI, has prompted a wave of calls for the government to provide a fiscal boost.

Yet even with long-term borrowing costs below zero, the government – bizarrely reluctant to issue new debt “just because it can” and shocking economic “experts” around the world – has been reluctant to abandon its balanced-budget policy and jump into action. However, in a first sign that even Berling may be about to crack, Bloomberg reported earlier this week that it’s is preparing measures that could be triggered by a deep recession.

However, just like Trump, the German central bank refuses to accept the true extend of the economic slowdown, and instead experts there describe the state of the economy as one of protracted stagnation, with the performance over the past year skewed by a range of temporary factors. Mild winter weather, for example, bolstered output in the first quarter, with payback in the spring.

Still, unlike Trump, the Bundesbank admitted that its complacent assessment could be wrong, and in its monthly report published Monday, the central bank highlighted the difficulty predicting the current course of the economy, with manufacturing in a deep downturn and private consumption still solid.

“As things currently stand, it is unclear whether exports and, by extension, industry will regain their footing before the domestic economy becomes more severely affected,” the Bundesbank wrote according to Bloomberg.

end
UK/FRANCE
That did not last long: France admits that there will be no new negotiations on the BREXIT and the Irish backstop stays.
(zerohedge)

‘We Will Not Find A New Deal’ – Macron Pours Cold Water On Brexit Compromise

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has just completed his first full rotation on the withdrawal agreement merry-go-round. And unfortunately for him and his Conservative Party, it doesn’t look like he accomplished much, other than winding down the clock toward Oct. 31, the new – and some claim final – ‘Brexit Day’.

To try and make some progress ahead of this weekend’s G-7 Summit in Biarritz, Johnson embarked on a brief tour of the Continent this week, where he met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and embattled French President Emmanuel Macron, to discuss whether an alternative to the current withdrawal agreement might be found.

On Thursday, Johnson met with Macron, and the two delivered a joint statement in Paris, following an overly lengthy and incredibly awkward handshake between the two men.

The pound rallied after Macron sounded slightly more optimistic about a new withdrawal agreement, stoking hopes that a deal might be reached to avert a ‘hard’ or ‘no deal’ Brexit, something for which the market has been bracing for months,as Johnson has insisted – unlike his predecessor – that he will gladly lead the UK over the ‘no deal’ cliff if a deal isn’t done before then.

But whatever cause for optimism that traders found in Macron’s comments, it’s doubtful that it will be maintained, as Macron pointed out that putting together a ‘substantially different’ withdrawal deal is doubtful. it’s more likely that GBP is moving based on comparisons between the French government’s comments from Wednesday vs. Macron’s on Thursday.

“Let me be very clear: We will not find a new withdrawal agreement within 30 days which will be very different from the existing one,” Macron said, before reiterating that Brexit “was not the choice of the European Union” and “we have to respect what was negotiated” under Theresa May.

The biggest snag, as it has been for the past ~2 years, is the Irish backstop, which is reviled by Conservatives who fear that the EU might use it to legally bind the UK to certain systems like the Customs Union. Both Macron and BoJo stuck to their guns this week: BoJo insisted that the EU must get rid of the backstop, something the bloc has repeatedly insisted it will never accept.

Macron claimed the backstop is a vital component of a deal.

“The Irish backstop (clauses) are not simply technical constraints but vital guarantees for the preservation of stability in Ireland and the integrity of the single market which is the basis of the European Project,” Macron added.

But BoJo insisted that if the two sides tried hard enough, a compromise could be reached, even if the vaguely technological solutions outlined in a white paper put together by a group of conservative MPs have been repeatedly dismissed by the bloc. Critics inside and outside the UK have dismissed many of these options as “unicorns” – ideas that

“Where there’s a will, there’s a way,” Johnson said.

Yesterday, Merkel suggested that a new deal might be reached if Johnson could find more realistic solutions, prompting Johnson to praise her “can-do spirit.”

But as BBG pointed out, “while Merkel and Macron have been polite and offered encouraging words to Johnson, behind the smiles it’s clear they’re not prepared to change the fundamentals of the Brexit deal. That suggests that unless Johnson backs down, a no-deal departure still looks like the most likely scenario.”

Meanwhile, Johnson is reportedly planning to join President Trump for breakfast on Sunday morning before the president heads back to Washington.

Then again, as we and others have pointed out, even if the Irish Backstop stays, the bloc’s “insurance policy” is practically unenforceable. Both the UK and the Republic of Ireland have vowed to never reinstate physical barriers between Northern Ireland and the RoI, which is the only major land barrier between the EU and UK.

end
ECB MINUTES/JULY 25 MEETING
(MARKET WATCH)

ECB minutes show discussion of ‘package’ of moves, changes to guidance

Aug 22, 2019 7:37 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Minutes of the July 25-ending European Central Bank meeting showed policymakers were receptive to a stimulus program that could include both interest-rate cuts and asset purchases. “The view was expressed that the various options should be seen as a package, i.e. a combination of instruments with significant complementarities and synergies, since experience had shown that a policy package – such as the combination of rate cuts and asset purchases – was more effective than a sequence of selective actions,” the minutes read. Members also saw value in examining ways to further strengthen its forward guidance on the path of policy rates, announcing preparatory work on the design of a tiered system or other options to mitigate the effects of negative interest rates on banks and and preparatory work “on modalities for potential new net asset purchases.”

-END-

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SYRIA/TURKEY

Even though Turkey invaded Syria trying to block the Syrian army from taking Khan Sheikhoun, its operation failed and now the city is liberated and now the next move is to gain control of Idlib province with its capital Idlib city.

(zerohedge)

 

Endgame Near: Syrian Army Liberates Khan Sheikhoun, Site Of Claimed ‘Sarin Attack’

“It’s looking like the end game for the revolution in Syria as rebels lose another town,” reports the LA Times. Yet the Syrian Army has now gained control of not just any town  but Khan Sheikhoun — site of the April 2017 claimed “Assad chemical attack” which Trump used as a pretext to bomb Syria for the first time.

Starting Tuesday the AP reported that insurgents began abandoning the town in southern Idlib en masse amid a heavy pro-Assad forces onslaught. The city had first been wrested from government control by Jabhat al-Nusra (Syrian al-Qaeda) and FSA forces starting in 2014.

It’s been held since by current Nusra manifestation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which in April 2017 claimed to have been victim of a sarin gas attack by Syrian jet airstrikes. In response to claims which until this day have never been investigated by an official international team on the ground, the White House unleashed its first, limited bombing campaign of Syria.

 

In April 2017 international media was flooded with images and YouTube videos of a claimed “Sarin attack”. Al-Qaeda linked HTS then sent its own team to examine the impact site and gather evidence. 

This would lead to larger tomahawk strikes on Damascus the next year in 2018 after a Saudi-backed insurgent group claimed an Assad forces chlorine gas attack in Douma, outside the capital.

This week even the Associated Press seemed to finally acknowledge what the mainstream media has for years refused to admit — that the Syrian Army is advancing in Idlib on none other than al-Qaeda:

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Syria’s main al-Qaida-linked faction, said in a statement that its fighters carried out “a re-deployment,” withdrawing to areas south of the town of Khan Sheikhoun. From there, they would continue to defend the territory, it said.

Pro-government areas are celebrating the liberation of the key city, with President Bashar al-Assad releasing a statement saying, “The victories that were achieved show the determination of the people and the army to strike terrorists, until all parts of Syria are liberated,” according to comments released by his office.

 

The Syrian Army celebrating entrance into the newly liberated area, via Al-Masdar News.

Concerning the broader campaign to take back Idlib province, it must be remembered that in 2015 US intelligence directly assisted the al-Qaeda coalition Army of Islam (now morphed into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) from an “operations room” in Turkey in capturing the provincial capital Idlib City. Since then Washington has threatened to intervene at prior moments whenever it looked like the Syrian Army was ready to advance in the province.

There’s also a huge likelihood that as anti-Assad fighters get ever closer to their final defeat in Idlib, some kind of mass casualty “chemical event” perpetrated by Assad will be claimed by al-Qaeda linked forces as a provocation to again draw in Western military intervention

end

IRAN

Trump is not going to like this. Iran unveils a domestic made long range air defense system missile

(zerohedge)

“Superior To S-300”: Iran Unveils Domestic-Made Long Range Air Defense System

At a moment that Iran and the US/UK are effectively already at war on the open seas in an ongoing “tanker war,” Tehran is set to unveil a new Iran-manufactured long range air-defense missile system which could rival Russia’s S-300 system.

Citing state media, the Associated Press described “the Bavar-373 is a long-range surface-to-air missile system able to recognize up to 100 targets at a same time and confront them with six different weapons.”

 

Screengrab of new state media footage published this week. 

Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency indicated the system will be fully unveiled in a ceremony on Thursday, on the occasion of the country’s “Defense Industries day”.

The Iranian military has been increasingly reliant on its burgeoning domestic defense manufacturing industry in the face of crippling US sanctions. Since the early 1990’s it’s been able to develop tanks, submarines, and light and heavy munitions, and more recently touted an Iran-build stealth warship.

State media called the soon to be revealed Bavar-373 system a “deterrence against threats” uniquely produced domestically due to the “continuous sanctions imposed by the enemies” of the Islamic Republic. The first footage of the system was released Tuesday through state sources ahead of Thursday’s unveiling ceremony.

Russian aviation publication Avia.Pro claimed early this week that the Iranian system is “superior” to the S-300. It’s reportedly been undergoing testing since 2017, but it’s unclear how quickly it will actually be deployed into operation.

“The Iranian Bavar-373 radars can detect air targets at distances of up to 300 kilometers, and, in addition to aircraft, the radar is able to detect cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as small drones,” the publication stated, according to a translation.

“According to unconfirmed data, the radar is also capable of detecting stealth aircraft, which makes it an effective means of combating F-22 and F-35 fighters, which, incidentally, were recently discovered near the Iranian borders,” the report said further.

And separately, the AP acknowledged:

The system could be a competitor to Russia’s S-300 missile system.

No doubt the timing of this week’s unveiling is calculated as a message to Washington, and as a warning that sanctions will only increase Iran’s domestic-produced defense capabilities.

END

6.Global Issues

You must pay attention to Albert Edwards..he was the first to predict negative sovereign yields a few years ago and now they total over 19 trillion dollars having these negative yields. He states it is going to be worse as the recession gets hold of things throughout the globe. He is surprised that even junk bonds are in the negative camp..he predicts that the 10 yr rate will approach 0% and then even go below the zero line

(courtesy Albert Edwards/SocGen)

The Man Who Predicted The Collapse In Bond Yields Reveals What Happens Next: “There Is A Lot More To Come”

Earlier this week we wrote that after decades of waiting, for Albert Edwards vindication was finally here – if only outside the US for now – because as per BofA calculations, non-USD sovereign yields on $19 trillion in global debt have now turned negative on average for the first time ever at -3bps.

So now that virtually every rates strategist is now rushing to out-“Ice Age” the SocGen strategist (who called the current move in rates years ago) by forecasting even lower yields (forgetting conveniently that just a year ago consensus called for the 10Y to rise well above 3% by… well, some time now), what does the man who correctly called the unprecedented move in global yields – which has sent $17 trillion in sovereign debt negative – think?

In a word: “There is a lot more to come.

As the SocGen strategist – who is certainly not at all confused by the move in rates – writes, “investors are perplexed. How can government bond yields have fallen so low in such a short space of time?”

Although the tsunami of negative yields sweeping the eurozone has attracted most attention, yields have also plunged in the US with 30y yields falling to an all-time low just below 2%. For many this represents a bubble of epic proportions, driven by QE and ripe for bursting.

Here Edwards makes it clear that he disagrees , and cautions “that there is a lot more to come.”

What does he mean?

As Albert explains, “when you see the creeping advance of negative bond yields throughout the investment universe, you really start to doubt your sanity. For me it is not so much that 10y+ government bond yields are increasingly negative, but when European junk bonds go negative I really start to scratch my head.” And as we wrote in “Redefining “High” Yield: There Are Now 14 Junk Bonds With Negative Yields“, there certainly is a lot of scratching to do.

One thing Edwards isn’t scratching his head over is whether this is a bond bubble: as he explains, his “own view is that this government bond rally is not a bubble but an appropriate reaction to the market discounting the next recession hitting the global economy from all overleveraged corners of the world (including China), with close to zero core inflation and precious few working tools left at policymakers’ disposal.”

This means that “the bubbles are not in the government bond market in my view. They are in corporate equities and corporate bonds.

If Edwards is correct about the locus of the next mega-bubble, it is very bad news for risk assets as the “global deflationary bust will wreak havoc with financial markets”, prompting Edwards to ask a rhetorical question:

Does anyone seriously believe that in the next global recession equity markets will not collapse? Do market participants really believe fiscal stimulus and helicopter money will save us from a gutwrenching global bust that will make 2008 look like a picnic? Has the longest US economic cycle in history beguiled investors into soporific complacency? I hope not.

He may hope not, but that’s precisely what has happened in a world where for over a decade, even a modest market correction has lead to central banks immediately jawboning stocks higher and/or cutting rates and launching QE.

So to validate his point that the rates market is not a bubble, Edwards goes on to show that “US and even eurozone government bond yields are not in fact overextended – certainly not on a technical level – but also that fundamentals should carry government bond yields still lower.”

 

In his note, Edwards launches into an extended analysis of the declining workweek for both manufacturing and total workers, and explains why sharply higher recession odds (which we recently discussed here), are far higher than consensus expected.

 

But what we found most notable was his technical analysis of the ongoing collapse in 10Y Bund yields. As Edwards writes, “looking at the chart for German 10y yields (monthly plot) their decline to close to minus 0.7% does not seem so extraordinary – merely the continuation of a downtrend within very clearly defined upper and lower bounds (see chart below).”

 

As Edwards explains referring to the chart above, “the bund yield has remained in the lower half of that band since 2011, but there is good reason for that as the ECB has struggled with a moribund eurozone economy and core inflation consistently undershooting its 2% target.”

Still, even Edwards admits that the pace of the recent decline in bund 10y yields is indeed unusually rapid (with a 14-month RSI of 26, middle panel).

And although this suggests a pause in the decline in yields is technically warranted, the MACD (bottom panel) doesn’t look at all stretched. After a pause (data allowing), 10y bunds could easily fall to the bottom of the lower trendline (ie below -1.5%) without any great technical excess being incurred.

His conclusion: “This market certainly doesn’t look like a bubble to me.”

Shifting attention from Germany to the US, Edwards writes that unlike the 10y German bund yield, “the US 10y has mostly occupied the top half of its wide downtrend band since 2013.”

 

That is fairly unsurprising given the stronger US economy together with Fed rate hikes. Technically the RSI is much less extended to the downside than the bund, but like Germany the MACD could still have a long way to fall. The bottom of the lower downtrend is around minus 0.5% by the end of 2020.

It is Edwards’ opinion that “we are on autopilot until we get” to 0.5%.

But wait, there’s more, because in referring to the charting of Pictet’s Julien Bittle (shown below), Edwards points out the right-hand panel which demonstrates how far US 10y yields might fall over various time periods after hitting a cyclical peak. “He shows that on average we should expect a decline of 1-1½ pp from the trendline, which takes us pretty much to zero (see slide).” Personally, Edwards says, he is even “more bullish than that!”

 

Edwards then points us to the work of Gaurav Saroliya, Director of Macro Strategy at Oxford Economics who “certainly doesn’t think that QE is depressing bond yields.” In this particular case, Saroliya uses a simple model which fits US 10y bond yields with trend growth and inflation reasonably accurately (see left hand chart below). As Edwards notes, “given the demographic situation, inflation is likely to remain subdued.”

 

In conclusion Edwards presents one final and classic Ice Age chart to finish off.

As the bearish – or is that bullish… for bonds – strategist notes, “the last few cycles have seen a sequence of lower lows and highs for nominal quantities (along with bond yield and Fed Funds). I have used a 4-year moving average and have added where I think we may be heading in the next downturn and rebound – and more importantly where I think the market is now thinking where we are heading.”

 

Referring to the implied upcoming plunge in nominal GDP, Edwards explains that “that is why this is not a bond bubble. It is the next phase of The Ice Age. And it is here.”

One last note: is it possible that Edwards’ apocalyptic view is wrong? As he admits, “of course” he could be wrong: “And given my dystopian vision for the global economy, equity and corporate bond investors, I sincerely hope I am.”

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Brazil

Pay attention to this one! Wild fires are blazing throughout Brazil and destroying much of the rain forest.  The rain forest produces 20% of our atmosphere’s oxygen

(Michael Snyder)

The “Lungs Of The Earth” Are Being Burned Away As Unprecedented Wildfires Absolutely Ravage The Planet

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

We have never seen anything quite like this.

This week the skies above Brazil’s largest city turned black in the middle of the afternoon due to the massive wildfires that are currently raging in that country.  But the wildfires aren’t actually happening anywhere near São Paulo.  In fact, the smoke that turned the skies black actually came from fires that were happening more than 1,000 miles away.  Can you imagine how powerful the fires have to be in order to do that?

And it isn’t just Brazil – right now horrific fires are scorching vast stretches of our planet from South America all the way up to the Arctic.  Some of the fires are producing so much smoke that you can actually see it from space.  And in the process, irreversible damage is being done to our ecosystems.

I know that this number is hard to believe, butthere have been more than 72,000 wildfires in Brazil so far in 2019, and most of those fires are happening in the Amazon rainforest.  I understand that many of you may not care what happens in Brazil, but you should.  Approximately 60 percent of the entire Amazon rainforest is in Brazilian territory, and that rainforest produces approximately 20 percent of all the oxygen in our atmosphere.  So essentially the “lungs of the Earth” are being burned away right in front of our eyes

The fires are burning at the highest rate since the country’s space research center, the National Institute for Space Research (known by the abbreviation INPE), began tracking them in 2013, the center said Tuesday.

There have been 72,843 fires in Brazil this year, with more than half in the Amazon region, INPE said. That’s more than an 80% increase compared with the same period last year.

The Amazon is often referred to as the planet’s lungs, producing 20% of the oxygen in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Every minute of every single day, an average of 1½ soccer fields of Amazon rainforest are being wiped out.  This is an ongoing crisis that hasn’t been getting nearly the attention that it deserves in the United States.

Infographic: Record Number Of Wildfires Burning In The Amazon | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

But when the skies above Sao Paulo suddenly turned completely black at three in the afternoon on Monday, that set off a social media frenzy

São Paulo’s skies were blackened for roughly an hour at around 3 p.m. Monday due to raging fires throughout the region and weather conditions that pushed particulate matter over the city, setting off intense speculation on social networks about the reason why the day was seemingly transformed into night.

Videos and images posted by local residents depicted disturbing scenes of pedestrians walking under black skies and cars driving in the mid-afternoon with their headlights on as the continued fires throughout the Amazon rainforest drove the hashtags #PrayforAmazonia and #PrayforAmazonas to worldwide viral status.

Sadly, these fires are not going to end any time soon.  It is being reported that more than 9,000 fires are raging at the moment, and it is being estimated that 640 million acres have been affected by those fires.

Yes, you read that number correctly.

640 million acres.

Meanwhile, 50 large wildfires are burning in a dozen U.S. states right now.  The worst fires are happening in Alaska, where “more than 400,000 acres are currently burning”

Multiple fires are burning near the state’s biggest city, and firefighters have called in assistance from the Lower 48. More than 400,000 acres are currently burning, and one of the biggest concerns is the McKinley Fire, which has destroyed at least 50 structures about 100 miles north of Anchorage. Officials with the Matanuska-Susitna Borough declared a state of emergency, and firefighters hoped that calmer weather predicted for Wednesday could permit evacuees to return.

When I think of Alaska, I think of a place that is bitterly cold.  But apparently it is hot enough this year for wildfires to sweep across hundreds of thousands of acres.

And we are also witnessing highly unusual wildfires in the Arctic in 2019…

The Arctic as a whole has seen unusually high wildfire activity this summer, Parrington said, including areas such as Greenland that typically don’t see fires. One estimate found that the amount of carbon dioxide emitted from fires burning within the Arctic Circle in in June 2019 was greater than all of the CO2 released in the same month from 2010 through to 2018 put together.

To me, it is very strange to be talking about “wildfires in the Arctic”, but we have entered a period of time when our entire definition of “normal” is going to change.  Last winter we experienced one of the coldest winters in ages, during the first half of this year the middle of the U.S. experienced unprecedented rainfall and flooding, and now we are being told that last month was the hottest July ever recorded

The average global temperature in July was 1.71 degrees F above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees, making it the hottest July in the 140-year record, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

The previous hottest month on record was July 2016. Nine of the 10 hottest recorded Julys have occurred since 2005; the last five years have ranked as the five hottest. Last month was also the 43rd consecutive July and 415th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures.

Unfortunately, many believe that this is just the beginning.  Global weather patterns are going haywire, and so the extremes that we have seen so far may just be the tip of the iceberg.

The environment that we depend upon for life every moment of every day is being shaken, and many are deeply alarmed about what is happening to the Earth.  Each day it is being destroyed a little bit more, and the clock is ticking…

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1074 DOWN .0016 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.47 DOWN 0.127 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2156  UP   0.0025  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3289 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 16 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1074 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 3.11 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 221.32 POINTS OR 0.84%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,31%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 221.32 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.11 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 31% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 9.44  POINTS OR 0.05%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1493.50

silver:$16.96-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.58% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.08 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.29 DOWN 1 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.17% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.24%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.14%//UP 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,31 UP 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 117 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.64% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.95% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1089  DOWN     .0002 or 2 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.45 DOWN .147 OR YEN UP 15  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2251 UP .01186 POUND UP 119  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 6 basis points to 1.3295

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0866    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0895  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7609 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.24%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.60 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.09 UP 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.16 DOWN 13  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 75.79  1.05%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 55.81 POINTS OR .47%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 47.23 POINTS 0.87%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 14.90 POINTS or 0.17%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 30.08 POINTS OR 0.14%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 55.18 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 59.59 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    65.72  THE CROSS LOW BY 0.06 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 6 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.64 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.34//

 

 

BRENT :  59.93

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.61 up 2 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.11 up 3 basis pts…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1085 ( DOWN 5   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:10639 DOWN .203 (YEN UP 20 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98,18 DOWN 12 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2259 UP 128  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7664

 

 

the Russian rouble 65.62   UP 0.16 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 16 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.298 DOWN 14 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0866  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0870 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.64%

 

The Dow closed UP 50.80 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 28.82 POINTS OR 0.36%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.51 CLOSED UP .71

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.147%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Curve Inverts As Traders Brace For J-Hole Surprise; Boeing Propels Dow Higher

In what was mostly a very quiet day, with traders refusing to trade in size ahead of tomorrow’s main event, J-Powell’s J-Hole speech, we got a glimpse of what will happen if the Fed chair disappoints the market’s expectations for committing to further rate cuts.

After spiking in early trading, stocks slumped to session lows and the VIX jumped back over the key 16 threshold, after Philly  Fed’s Harker joined other regional Fed presidents in pouring cold water on hopes for more rate cuts, and instead saying that he expects not to vote for more easing.

The unexpected hawkishness sent 2Y yield surging, as suddenly the consensus case for 2 more rate cuts this year, and another 2 in 2020 seemed in jeopardy.

The drift higher in short-term yields came even as Markit reported the first contractionary manufacturing PMI in ten years, at 49.9, while the services PMI stumbled as well, making the case for a recession that much more likely.

Also not helping the dovish case was news from Germany, that Bundesbank economists now expect Q3 GDP in Europe’s strongest economy to print -0.1%, meaning Germany has now entered a technical recession with two consecutive sub zero GDP prints.

In any case, the surprising hawkishness out of Fed presidents, and the spike in 2Y yields, meant that the 2s10s yield curve inverted again – yet another recessionary indicator – and was flipping between negative and positive for much of the day.

Looking at sector performance, banks were the clear winners despite the fresh curve inversion, with homebuilders also positive, while all other sectors were either flat or negative, with tech stocks suffering a surprising drop.

And while the S&P traded mostly flat, the Dow outperformed thanks to a Reuters report that Boeing was hoping to produce a record number of 737 planes in Q2 2020… assuming the company got clearance to fly the infamous 737 Max plane again.

Away from the US, euro-area government bonds slumped as the ECB, in its latest minutes, expressed concern that investors were losing faith in its ability to revive inflation. Investors agree, and have pushed the European 5Y5Y inflawtion swap to near record low levels.

Meanwhile, the British pound surged over 1%, its best one day return since May, as investors seized on hints from European leaders that a Brexit deal could still be reached.

And so with the S&P closing flat, Chris Zaccarelli, CIO for Independent Advisor Alliance, summarized it best: “The big question mark is just going to be Jackson Hole — what’s Powell going to say You’re seeing the market going higher and lower this week heading into tomorrow, where we could get some market-moving commentary out of Powell’s speech.”

For those curious what Powell may say, and why he will likely disappoint, read our preview of tomorrow’s J-Hole main event here.

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LATE MORNING/USA

The Dow reverts back into negative territory on one of the Klowns on K Street statement (Hawker) that he sees no need for further stimulation. The two year yield rises, the 10 yr yield hardly budges and thus the 2/10 curve inverts again..indicating policy error

(zerohedge)

 

Hawkish Shocker From Fed’s Harker Inverts 2s10s Curve, Sends Stocks Tumbling

Moments after yields tumbled across the curve following the first contractionary US Mfg PMI print in a decade, which sparked concerns about a recession in the US, bond traders were whipsawed by comments from (non-voting) Philly Fed president Patrick Harker, who in an interview with CNBC said that he doesn’t see any need for further stimulus at the moment.

“We are roughly where neutral is,” Harker added and noted that they saw the US-China trade dispute as an “economic headwind.”

While “It’s hard to know exactly where neutral is” Harker said that “we’re roughly where neutral is right now. And I think we should stay here for a while and see how things play out.”

Asked if he sees a case for further stimulus, Harker replied “No. Not right now.”

“The labor markets are strong, inflation is moving up slowly — but with the last CPI print, it was a good print,” he said.

His unexpectedly hawkish comments echoed remarks from the Fed’s Esther George who said it was not time for accommodation as the labor market remains strong.

Here are some other soundbites from his interview with Steve Liesman:

  • “Yield curve is only one of many signals.”
  • “Trade issue makes business decisions difficult.”
  • “Growth now is exactly what we had anticipated last year.”
  • “No need for another rate cut, central bank should stay here for a while.”
  • “Trade resolution would boost growth.”

CNBC Now

@CNBCnow

Fed’s Harker doesn’t see need for another rate cut, says central bank should stay here ‘for a while’http://cnbc.com/id/106091825

View image on Twitter

Supported by these hawkish remarks, the US Dollar Index rebounded from the session low that it set at 98.08 in the last hour and is now at 98.18, still losing 0.08% on the day.

But the biggest market reaction was the sharp spike in 2Y yields which rebounded from 1.555% to over 1.60% in the span of minutes following Harker’s comments.

And with the 10Y not moving nearly as much, the 2s10s curve re-inverted sharply thanks to Harker’s hawkish commentary…

… once again sparking concerns among stocks that a recession is imminent, and sending the S&P back in the red.

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

This is big news,  Markit reports a huge downdraft in manufacturing PMi into contraction levels. It is the lowest print in 19 years,  Not only that but the usually much stronger Service PMI also badly printed.

(zerohedge)

Recession Alarm: US Manufacturing PMI Unexpectedly Crashes Into Contraction With Lowest Print In 10 Years

With all eyes focused squarely on Germany’s dismal PMI prints, which have been in contraction for over half a year, the investing public forgot that the US economy is similarly slowing down. And moments ago it got a jarring reminder when Markit reported that the US manufacturing PMI unexpectedly tumbled into contraction territory, down from 50.4 last month, and badly missing expectations of a 50.5 rebound. This was the first print below the 50.0 expansion threshold for the first time since September 2009.

But wait, there’s more, because whereas until now the US services segment appeared immune to the slowdown in US manufacturing, in August the service PMI tumbled to 50.9, down from 53.0 in Julymatching the lowest print in at least 3 years,and well below the 52.8 consensus expectation.  According to Markit, subdued demand conditions continued to act as a brake on growth, with the latest rise in new work the slowest since March 2016. This contributed to a decline in backlogs of work for the first time in 2019 to date.

Meanwhile, business expectations among service providers for the next 12 months eased in August and were the lowest since this index began nearly a decade ago.

As the report further notes, the decline in the headline PMI mainly reflected a much weaker contribution from new orders, which offset a stabilization in employment and fractionally faster output growth.

This however was offset by new business received by manufacturing companies, which fell for the second time in the past four months during August. Although only marginal, the latest downturn in order books was the sharpest for exactly 10 years. The data also signalled the fastest reduction in export sales since August 2009.

Survey respondents indicated that a drop in sales often cited a soft patch across the automotive sector, alongside a headwind to manufacturing exports from weaker global economic conditions. Meanwhile, manufacturing companies continued to trim their inventory levels in August, which was mainly linked to concerns about the demand outlook. Pre-production inventories fell for the fourth month running, while stocks of finished goods decreased to the greatest extent since June 2014 fastest reduction in export sales since August 2009.

Survey respondents indicated that a drop in sales often cited a soft patch across the automotive sector, alongside a headwind to manufacturing exports from weaker global economic conditions.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Tim Moore, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit said:

“August’s survey data provides a clear signal that economic growth has continued to soften in the third quarter. The PMIs for manufacturing and services remain much weaker than at the beginning of 2019 and collectively point to annualized GDP growth of around 1.5%.

The most concerning aspect of the latest data is a slowdown in new business growth to its weakest in a decade, driven by a sharp loss of momentum across the service sector. Survey respondents commented on a headwind from subdued corporate spending as softer growth expectations at home and internationally encouraged tighter budget setting.

“Manufacturing companies continued to feel the impact of slowing global economic conditions, with new export sales falling at the fastest pace since August 2009.

“Business expectations for the year ahead became more gloomy in August and remain the lowest since comparable data were first available in 2012. The continued slide in corporate growth projections suggests that firms may exert greater caution in relation to spending, investment and staff hiring during the coming months.”

An interesting nuance as noted by Viraj Patel of Arkera, is that while German economic sentiment may be troughing (granting in very contractionary territory), it is now America’s turn to slump into recession:

Viraj Patel@VPatelFX

Interesting PMI day so far. Eurozone (Germany) beats… and US disappoints. Is relative tide changing? Lot of pessimism over Eurozone economy versus US Trump tax cut ‘sugar high’ + tariff war slowdown still very much in process with more room to go. cyclically higher now?

View image on Twitter

A few days ago we reported that the easiest way for Trump to get the Fed to launch QE was to i) start a global economic war or ii) send the US economy into recession. Based on today’s data, Trump is making great progress on the latter, and we are confident the former can’t be far behind.

END

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Huge number of Wall Street apartments is plaguing the Manhattan real estate market

(zerohedge)

Wall Street-Area Apartments Plagued With Tidal Wave Of Supply

Apartments in the Wall Street area languished into late summer as a glut plagues the Manhattan real estate market, reported Bloomberg.

“There was so much new development in that neighborhood, and I think that many of the people who wanted to buy there did,” said Steven Gottlieb, a broker at Warburg Realty. “I don’t know that there is such a huge a demand for that neighborhood anymore.”

Lower Manhattan apartment inventory spiked 24% in 2Q19 YoY, led by a tidal wave of new supply, according to a report by Corcoran Group.

The supply has caused panic in the area, average resale prices have fallen 11%, and average new development prices plunged 46%.

The days of $1,600 per square foot are over. This was the first time that has happened since 2013, signaling the slowdown in the overall Manhattan real estate market is gaining momentum in 2H19.

“Buyers are keenly aware of the amount of inventory available, and want to negotiate at all price points,” said Garrett Derderian at the brokerage Core.

StreetEasy says data from May and June shows the median time that Lower Manhattan apartments had been on the market was longer than Brooklyn and Long Island City.

Four new luxury residential towers are expected to open in Lower Manhattan in 2020, including residential towers at 130 William St., 77 Greenwich St., 25 Park Row, and 1 Wall St. The new supply won’t just make it harder for existing listings to sell, but could lead to further price declines for the next several years.

The Real Deal reported that developer Metro Loft is in contract to purchase AIG’s headquarters at 175 Water St in 2021. As soon as that happens, the developer will transform the top half of the building into residential units, could add to supply in 2022 to 2024.

Martin Eiden, a broker at Compass Real Estate, said it’d been at least a decade since conversions of office-to-residence projects were done, and it now seems like that trend is reemerging into 2020.

Bloomberg notes one of the first office-to-residence conversions in the area was at 15 Broad St., the former headquarters of JPMorgan Chase & Co., was completed in 2006. A 28th-floor studio with two bathrooms currently lists for about $1.5 million.

Down the street, 25 Broad St., a condo conversion completed in April, has two-bedroom, two-bath unit listed for about $1.6 million.

With the migration of some of the largest financial institutions from Lower Manhattan to Midtown in recent years, the highest paid jobs have also gravitated north, forcing developers to build smaller apartments for entry-level analysts in the financial district.

“The majority of housing stock available for purchase consists of one-bedroom or studio floorplans,” said broker Gill Chowdhury at Warburg Realty.

Scott Avram, senior vice president of development at Lightstone Group, a developer in the area, said singles or young families could find Lower Manhattan appealing because of the housing glut, has transformed it into a buyers market.

“If you want to live in Manhattan, you can often get the best product and the best value, whereas people were previously priced out of Manhattan and had to move to Brooklyn and Long Island City,” Avram said.

However, the housing decline isn’t just limited to Lower Manhattan, mega-mansions in the Hamptons, Wall Street’s favorite party spot, are also languishing, indicating the high-end market has peaked. And it makes sense why President Trump is demanding 100bps cuts and QE-4, it’s because his economic advisors have told him the real estate market, and the overall economy, are quickly slowing ahead of an election year.

END

If the American Justice system killed Jeffery Epstein is Julian Assange next

(Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan)

 

Boeing Jumps On Reuters Report Of Record 737 Production Target… If FAA Gives Regulatory Clearance

The Dow has managed to levitate into the red following a Reuters report that sent the stock of Dow heavyweight Boeing higher, according to which Boeing told suppliers it will resume production of its best-selling 737 jets at a rate of 52 aircraft per month in February 2020, then stepping up to a record 57 jets monthly in June.

There is, of course a catch: the aerospace giant will only be able to boost production if the FAA clear the plane. To wit,  Boeing told more than 100 suppliers during at least one Web meeting July 30 that the new schedule depended upon regulators approving the 737 MAX to fly again commercially in the fourth quarter.

Of course, since the entire report is contingent on the firm getting a greenlight, it is nothing more than a trial balloon, and also an attempt by Boeing to make the FAA responsible for the future wellbeing of Boeing shareholders. As Reuters notes, one of the sources “expressed skepticism over the timing given the intense scrutiny from regulators that grounded the 737 MAX after deadly crashes killed nearly 350 people in Ethiopia and Indonesia in the span of five months.”

More to the point, there is no guarantee when regulators will clear the 737 MAX to fly again, and Boeing Chief Executive Dennis Muilenburg told analysts last month that Boeing would consider further 737 output cuts or potentially suspending production if the grounding dragged on.

In other words, Boeing production could be a record in Q2 2020… or it could be zero.

Some background:

In April, Boeing cut the number of 737s it produces monthly to 42 from 52 after halting deliveries to airline customers, cutting off a key source of cash and hitting margins. Because the grounding happened when Boeing was going up towards record production levels, and each move of the sprawling supply chain has to be planned far in advance, Boeing and its suppliers are now caught between two conflicting pressures: preparing to get back on the upward path as soon as the plane is flying but also ratcheting downwards if regulators stall and the grounding continues for longer than expected.

Understandably, with no control over what the FAA decides (for once), Boeing has been tight-lipped about its production plans. CEO Muilenburg told analysts last month that Boeing expects to be able to maintain its current monthly production rate of 42 aircraft, “followed by incremental rate increases that would bring our production rate to 57 during 2020.”

Two persons familiar with Boeing’s production plans, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Boeing told suppliers it will increase production from 42 to 47 single-aisle aircraft per month in October, jibing with its guidance to investors on when it expects to win regulatory approval. It would then increase from 47 aircraft to the pre-crash rate of 52 aircraft per month in February 2020, the people, and a third person familiar with the plans, said. Boeing then would hit a record stride of 57 single-aisle jets per month in June 2020, two of the people said.

Again, all of this is contingent on FAA granting the company a green light to resume flights.

In response to questions from Reuters, Boeing spokesman Paul Bergman said Boeing updated the 737 master production schedule to reflect timing assumptions for the 737 MAX return to service plan. “While the assumption reflects Boeing’s best estimate at this time, the actual timing of return to service will be determined by the FAA and other global aviation regulatory authorities and could differ from this assumption and estimate.”

Also not surprisingly, algos completely missed the conditional nature of the report, and sent Boeing stock to session highs, which in turn helped move the Dow back from red on the day to well in the green.

 

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

There is something sinister going on here;  Patrick Byrne quits over his uproar on “deep state remarks” concerning the Clinton Foundaiton

(zerohedge)

Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne Quits Over Uproar Following ‘Deep State’ Remarks

With his company’s stock in free fall, Overstock.com CEO Patrick Byrne resigned as CEO and from the company’s board on Thursday, effective immediately, Bloomberg reports.

Patrick Byrne

In a separate statement, Overstock named Jonathan Johnson, a board member and president of blockchain-focused subsidiary Medici Ventures, as interim CEO.

Byrne’s resignation comes after conspiratorial comments where he confessed his role in the ‘deep state’, claiming that he helped cause “damage done to our nation for three years and felt my duty as a citizen precluded me from staying silent any longer.” Byrne released an initial statement last week where he discussed his involvement in the federal government’s investigation into the 2016 election interference, though he wasn’t super-specific, he said he assisted in ‘investigations’ related to the Clintons and Russia.

Recently, Byrne turned over documents to the DoJ regarding what he said was ‘the greatest political scandal in US history.’

“I gave to the DOJ documents concerning both the origin of the Russian probe and the probe into Hillary Clinton, both of which I was involved in, and both of which turned out to be less about law enforcement than they were about political espionage,” Byrne told SaraACarter.com Monday.

He also claimed in an interview with the NYT that he had been romantically involved with Maria Butina, the convicted Russian operative who had infiltrated the NRA.

Overstock shares have tumbled since Byrne’s statement, though shares were halted pending news on Thursday.

end
this is big stuff!! I informed you that I thought  Mifsud was a USA asset and that was the reason he hide from everyone. I guess that the Mueller team lied that Mifsud was a Russian asset.
(Gateway)

HUGE!… MUELLER TEAM LIED! Attorney for Joseph Mifsud Confirms He is Western Intelligence Operative — And NOT a Russian Operative (VIDEO)

Investigative reporter John Solomon from The Hill joined Maria Bartiromo on Sunday Morning Futures this morning.

The two discussed John Solomon’s latest interview with CIA operative Joseph Mifsud’s attorneys.

According to Mr. Mifsud’s attorneys their client was working for the CIA and was NOT a Russian operative as reported by the Mueller witch hunt team of liars.

 

Maria Bartiromo: We know that there were informants thrown at certain Trump campaign people, like George Papadopoulos. George Papadopoulos was on this show and he told me directly on this show that Mifsud was the guy they wanted him to meet in Italy… That is the individual who told him that Russia has emails on Hillary Clinton. Why is that important, John?

John Solomon: Well, I interviewed Mr. Mifsud’s lawyer the other day, Stefan Rowe, and he told me and also provided me some deposition evidence to both Congress and myself that his client was being directed and long worked with Western intelligence. And he was being directed specifically, he was asked to connect George Papadopoulos to Russia, meaning it was an operation, some form of intelligence operation. That was the lawyer’s own words for this. If that’s the case that means the flash point the started the whole investigation was in fact manufactured from the beginning.

This is a HUGE development. ROBERT MUELLER and his band of angry Democrats lied in their final report on operative Joseph Mifsud.

Mifsud was NOT a Russian operative as the Mueller report claimed he was.
Mifsud worked for Western intelligence — and now his attorney has confirmed this!

Via Sunday Morning Futures:

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Yesterday, the BLS issued a preliminary annual revision of -501k NFP jobs as of March 2019.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm

Largest revisions: Leisure & Hospitality -175k, Professional & Business Services -163k and retail -146.4k

Establishment survey benchmarking is done on an annual basis to population employment counts derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI) Approximately 97 percent of total nonfarm employment within the scope of the establishment survey is covered by UI… https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm

Essentially, the BLS’s benchmark revision is the difference between its CES Survey guess and employment derived from state unemployment tax records.

As we warned in yesterday’s missive, “Today[Wednesday] is settlement for August VIX options.  Ergo, there could be some serious ESU manipulation prior to the NYSE open.

ESUs rallied from a low of 2893, where they opened on Tuesday night, to 2927.50 at 9:06 ET.  There was no impact news. At 8:52 ET, Trump unloaded on Powell again.  DJT’s act has become very tiresome.

@realDonaldTrump: Doing great with China and other Trade Deals. The only problem we have is Jay Powell and the Fed. He’s like a golfer who can’t putt, has no touch. Big U.S. growth if he does the right thing, BIG CUT – but don’t count on him! So far he has called it wrong, and only let us down.

    We are competing with many countries that have a far lower interest rate, and we should be lower than them. Yesterday, “highest Dollar in U.S. History.” No inflation. Wake up Federal Reserve. Such growth potential, almost like never before!

@realDonaldTrump: The Fake News Lame Stream Media is doing everything possible the “create” a U.S. recession, even though the numbers & facts are working totally in the opposite direction. They would be willing to hurt many people, but that doesn’t matter to them. Our Economy is sooo strong, sorry!

Bank of America CEO Moynihan says the consumer is doing well and will keep US economy going

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/bank-of-america-ceo-moynihan-says-the-consumer-is-doing-well-and-will-keep-us-economy-going.html

The whole play for Wednesday was the manipulation for the VIX settlement – and the scheme commenced just after ESUs opened on Tuesday night.  As we warned, after the scheme ended, ESUs and stocks went dead as traders moved to the sidelines for the remainder of the session.  Wise guys wanted to save their powder for Thursday afternoon to play the rally for Powell’s expected dovish speech on Friday.

The market ignored Trump and Kashkari’s hackneyed pontifications.  Minny Fed Prez Kashkari, an uber-dove that appears to be pandering to DJT, called for the Fed to resurrect its forward guidance policy.

@realDonaldTrump [9:56 ET]: So Germany is paying Zero interest and is actually being paid to borrow money, while the U.S., a far stronger and more important credit, is paying interest and just stopped (I hope!) Quantitative Tightening. Strongest Dollar in History, very tough on exports. No Inflation!  WHERE IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE?

World’s First 30-Year Bond That Pays Nothing Flops in Germany

Germany failed to meet its 2-billion-euro target ($2.2 billion) for the auction of notes maturing in 2050, selling only 824 million euros. It’s another sign that the global bond rally may be coming to a halt now that more than $16 trillion of securities around the world have negative yields…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-21/germany-sees-anemic-demand-for-30-year-bond-sale-at-zero-coupon

It’s time for Powell to directly and unequivocally scold Trump and administer the verbal spanking that the petulant DJT deserves.

Trump executed a double reverse – or was it a triple reverse – on Wednesday.

[13:03 ET] @ABC: Pres. Trump says he’s “not looking at a tax cut now. We don’t need it. We’ve got a strong economy.” The president said yesterday that he’s considered a payroll tax cut but denied any link to recession fears.  https://abcn.ws/2zgTmNK

    Pres. Trump says he feels it necessary to “economically take on China.”  “Someone had to do it,” he says, and then, looking at the sky, adds, “I am the chosen one.”     https://abcn.ws/2K0BLjq

Trump also said, “The fake news, of which many of you are members, is trying to convince the public to have a recession… My life would be much easier if I let China continue to rip off the United States.  But, I can’t do that… This isn’t my trade war; it’s a trade war that should have taken place a long time ago…”

CNN’s John King: The president is absolutely right when he says that China has been cheating for 25 years, and that Bill Clinton didn’t do enough about it, George W. Bush didn’t do enough about it, Barack Obama didn’t do enough about it … The president is absolutely right.”

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1164231318022082562

When the FOMC Minutes from the July 30-31 meeting were released, ESUs decline because the minutes showed that most Fed officials believed the rate cut was nothing more than a ‘mid-cycle adjustment’ and several officials favored keeping rates on hold.

Fed members affirm ‘mid-cycle adjustment,’ see no ‘pre-set course’ for cuts, minutes show

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/federal-reserve-releases-minutes-from-july-meeting.html

The decline ended quickly; ESU rallied back to where they were before the FOMC minutes were released because there was debate on asset purchases/QE.  ESUs then reverted to an inert state.  At 14:30 ET, ESUs broke lower.  Of course, the usual suspects forced ESUs 5 handles higher during the last hour.

Trump Lashes Out After Automakers Agree to California’s Standards

Car manufacturers fear a legal battle between the Trump Administration and California regulatory agencies could split the U.S. market and cause regulatory chaos.

https://www.industryweek.com/leadership/trump-lashes-out-after-automakers-agree-californias-standards

U.S. Container Ports Report Surprising Growth despite Tariffs

Despite the escalating US/China trade war, the ten biggest US container ports posted a surprisingly robust 2.7% year-on-year import throughput growth in July, for a cumulative 1,865,645 teu… Container imports for US east and Gulf coast ports last month was up 5.6% on July last year, reaching 862,313 teu, with star performer Savannah recording 8.5% growth… Long Beach recorded a 9.9% slump in containers across its terminals. But in contrast, San Pedro Bay neighbour Los Angeles hit a new record for the month, with an 8.7% jump in imports across its quays…

https://gcaptain.com/u-s-container-ports-report-surprising-growth-despite-tariffs/

What Globalism Did Was to Transfer the US Economy to China

The offshoring of US jobs has reduced US manufacturing and industrial capability and associated innovation, research, development, supply chains, consumer purchasing power, and tax base of state and local governments. Corporations have increased short-term profits at the expense of these long-term costs… Half or more of the imports from China are imports from US companies. Trump’s tariffs, or a large part of them, fall on US corporations or US consumers…

    One consequence of Washington’s universal economic ignorance is that the financial media has concocted the story that “Trump’s tariffs” are not only driving Americans into recession but also the entire world. Somehow tariffs on Apple computers and iPhones, Nike footwear, and Levi jeans are sending the world into recession or worse…The US has been in a recession for two or more decades as its manufacturing/industrial/engineering capability has been transferred abroad…

https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2019/08/21/what-globalism-did-was-to-transfer-the-us-economy-to-china/

‘Services’ are keeping the US economy buoyant – and much of the ‘services’ are funded by record deficit spending and mushrooming, but largely concealed from real accounting, social programs and safety nets.

Solomon: 10 declassified Russia collusion revelations that could rock Washington this fall

10.)  Records of allies’ assistance. Multiple sources have said… possibly Great Britain, Australia and Italy — were asked to assist FBI efforts to check on Trump connections to Russia… My sources say these documents might help explain Attorney General William Barr’s recent comments that “the use of foreign intelligence capabilities and counterintelligence capabilities against an American political campaign, to me, is unprecedented and it’s a serious red line that’s been crossed.”

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/458173-10-declassified-russia-collusion-revelations-that-could-rock-washington-this

 

Ex-SDNY prosecutor Andrew McCarthy: Counter Intelligence Investigations Are Done for the President — Obama KNEW About Spying on Trump – If they actually believed what they were telling the court that it was a possibility that Donald Trump was actually a plant of the Kremlin, it would have been derelict on their part not to keep the president informed.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/08/obama-was-in-on-it-andrew-mccarthy-counter-intelligence-investigations-are-done-for-the-president-obama-knew-about-spying-on-trump-video/

 

[DNC chief] Tom Perez Doing Fundraisers in Mexico, As DNC Struggles To Raise Money

https://dailycaller.com/2019/08/20/tom-perez-dnc-mexico-fundraisers/

 

Omar says US should reconsider aid to Israel – argued that U.S. aid should be contingent upon Israel’s activity in Palestine…  https://thehill.com/homenews/house/458014-omar-says-us-should-reconsider-aid-to-israel

 

@ABC: Pres. Trump reiterates his statement that Jewish Americans who vote for Democrats are disloyal to Israel.  When asked by a reporter if this is an anti-Semitic comment, he tells a reporter, “No, no…it’s only anti-Semitic in your head.”   https://abcn.ws/2K0BLjq

 

OAN’s ChloeSalsameda: Pres. Trump is considering ending birthright citizenship for children born in the U.S. to parents who are noncitizens or crossed into the U.S. illegally. “You walk over the border, have a baby – congratulations, the baby is now a U.S. citizen…. It’s frankly ridiculous.”

 

Former Dem Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid: ‘Of Course’ Medicare for All and Decriminalizing Border Crossings Are Bad Ideas – “There are so many more important things to do.”…

    “The filibuster is just no longer useful. The Senate does nothing anymore. No one offers amendments; they can’t, [Senate Majority Leader Mitch] McConnell won’t let them. All they do is vote on judges, that’s all they do,” Reid griped. “I think it would be better if the Senate have majority rule. Where did we ever come up with 60 being the magical number?”…

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/ywadgw/exclusive-harry-reid-of-course-medicare-for-all-and-decriminalizing-border-crossings-are-bad-ideas

Joe Biden Says MLK, Kennedy Assassinations Happened in the ‘Late ‘70s’

https://hannity.com/media-room/wrong-decade-joe-biden-says-mlk-kennedy-assassinations-happened-in-the-late-70s/

 

@BreitbartNews: Facebook hired Eric Holder’s law firm to conduct an “audit” to determine if the social media giant is politically biased. [This is not a parody piece!]

 

@BabakTaghvaee: On request of Iran’s Islamic Regime, France has banned protests against presence of the criminal foreign minister of Iran’s Islamic Regime, Javad Zarif in Paris where thousands of Iranian dissidents are living in exile.

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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